[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 64 (Monday, April 4, 2011)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 18425-18428]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2011-7939]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

10 CFR Part 430

[Docket No. EERE-2011-BT-NOA-0013]


Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With 
Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of data availability.

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SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is informing the public of 
its collection of shipment data and creation of spreadsheet models to 
provide comparisons between actual and benchmark estimate unit sales of 
five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-
way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent 
lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps), which are currently exempt from 
energy conservation standards. As the actual sales do not exceed the 
forecasted estimate by 100 percent for any lamp type (i.e., the 
threshold triggering rulemaking for an energy conservation standard for 
that lamp type has not been exceeded), DOE has determined that no 
regulatory action is necessary at this time. However, DOE will continue 
to track sales data for these exempted lamps. Relating to this 
activity, DOE has prepared and is making available on its Web site a 
spreadsheet showing the comparisons of anticipated versus actual sales, 
as well as the model used to generate the original sales estimates. The 
spreadsheet is available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/five_lamp_types.html.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms. Tina Kaarsberg, U.S. Department of 
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building 
Technologies, EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 
20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 287-1393. E-mail: 
[email protected].
    Mr. Eric Stas, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General 
Counsel, GC-71, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585-
0121. Telephone: (202) 586-9507. E-mail: [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Background
II. Definitions
    A. Rough Service Lamps
    B. Vibration Service Lamps
    C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
    D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
    E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
III. Comparison Methodology
IV. Comparison Results
    A. Rough Service Lamps
    B. Vibration Service Lamps
    C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
    D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
    E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
V. Conclusion

I. Background

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) (Pub. 
L. 110-140) was enacted on December 19, 2007. Among the requirements of 
subtitle B (Lighting Energy Efficiency) of title III of EISA 2007 were 
provisions directing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to collect, 
analyze, and monitor unit sales of five lamp types (i.e., rough service 
lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 
lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). 
In relevant part, section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 
325(l) of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) by 
adding paragraph (4)(B) which generally directs DOE, in consultation 
with the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), to: (1) 
Collect unit sales data for each of the five lamp types for calendar 
years 1990 through 2006 in order to determine the historical growth 
rate for each lamp type; and (2) construct a model for each of the five 
lamp types based on coincident economic indicators that closely match 
the historical annual growth rates of each lamp type to provide a 
neutral comparison benchmark estimate of future unit sales. (42 U.S.C. 
6295(l)(4)(B)) Section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 also amends section 
325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraph (4)(C), which in relevant part, 
directs DOE to collect unit sales data for calendar years 2010 through 
2025, in consultation with NEMA, for each of the five lamp types. DOE 
must then compare the actual lamp sales in that year with the benchmark 
estimate, determine if the unit sales projection has been exceeded, and 
issue the findings within 90 days after the end of the analyzed 
calendar year. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C))
    On December 18, 2008, DOE issued a notice of data availability for 
the Report on Data Collection and Estimated Future Unit Sales of Five 
Lamp Types (hereafter ``the 2008 analysis'') \1\ which was published in 
the Federal Register on December 24, 2008. 73 FR 79072. The 2008 
analysis presented the 1990 through 2006 shipment data collected in 
consultation with NEMA, the spreadsheet model DOE constructed for each 
lamp type, and the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2010 through 2025. 
Today's NODA presents the first of the mandated follow-up comparisons. 
Section IV of this report compares the actual unit sales against 
benchmark unit sales estimates for 2010.
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    \1\ The Report on the 2008 analysis is available on the DOE Web 
site at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/pdfs/five_lamp_types_report.pdf.
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    EISA 2007 also amends section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraphs 
(4)(D) through (4)(H) which state that if DOE finds that the unit sales 
for a given lamp type in any year between 2010 and 2025 exceed the 
benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., more 
than double the anticipated sales), then DOE must take regulatory 
action to establish an energy conservation standard for such lamps. (42 
U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)-(H)) For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamps, DOE must adopt a statutorily-prescribed energy 
conservation standard, and for the other four types of lamps, the 
statute requires DOE to initiate an accelerated rulemaking to establish 
energy conservation standards. If the Secretary does not complete the 
accelerated rulemakings within one year of the end of the previous 
calendar year, there is a ``backstop requirement'' for each lamp type, 
which would establish energy conservation standard levels and related 
requirements by statute. Id.
    As in the 2008 analysis, in this NODA, DOE uses manufacturer 
shipments as a surrogate for unit sales, because manufacturer shipment 
data is tracked and aggregated by the trade organization, NEMA. DOE 
believes that annual shipments track closely with actual unit sales of 
these five lamp types, as DOE presumes that retailer inventories remain 
constant from year to year. DOE believes this is a reasonable 
assumption because the markets for these five lamp types have existed 
for many years, thereby enabling manufacturers and retailers to 
establish appropriate inventory levels that reflect market demand. 
Furthermore, in the long-run, unit sales could not increase

[[Page 18426]]

in any one year without manufacturer shipments increasing either that 
year or the following one. In either case, increasing unit sales must 
eventually result in increasing manufacturer shipments. This is the 
same methodology presented in DOE's 2008 analysis, and the Department 
did not receive any comments challenging this assumption or the general 
approach.

II. Definitions

A. Rough Service Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``rough service lamp.'' The statutory 
definition reads as follows: ``The term `rough service lamp' means a 
lamp that--(i) has a minimum of 5 supports with filament configurations 
that are C-7A, C-11, C-17, and C-22 as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th 
edition of the IESNA [Illuminating Engineering Society of North 
America] Lighting handbook, or similar configurations where lead wires 
are not counted as supports; and (ii) is designated and marketed 
specifically for `rough service' applications, with--(I) the 
designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing 
materials that identify the lamp as being for rough service.'' (42 
U.S.C. 6291(30)(X))
    As noted above, rough service incandescent lamps must have a 
minimum of five filament support wires (not counting the two connecting 
leads at the beginning and end of the filament), and must be designated 
and marketed for ``rough service'' applications. This type of 
incandescent lamp is typically used in applications where the lamp 
would be subject to mechanical shock or vibration while it is 
operating. Standard incandescent lamps have only two support wires 
(which also serve as conductors), one at each end of the filament coil. 
When operating (i.e., when the tungsten filament is glowing so hot that 
it emits light), a standard incandescent lamp's filament is brittle, 
and rough service applications could cause it to break prematurely. To 
address this problem, lamp manufacturers developed lamp designs that 
incorporate additional support wires along the length of the filament 
to ensure that it has support not just at each end, but at several 
other points as well. The additional support protects the filament 
during operation and enables longer operating life for incandescent 
lamps in rough service applications. Typical applications for these 
rough service lamps might include commercial hallways and stairwells, 
gyms, storage areas, and security areas.

B. Vibration Service Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``vibration service lamp.'' The statutory 
definition reads as follows: ``The term `vibration service lamp' means 
a lamp that--(i) has filament configurations that are C-5, C-7A, or C-
9, as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th Edition of the IESNA Lighting 
Handbook or similar configurations; (ii) has a maximum wattage of 60 
watts; (iii) is sold at retail in packages of 2 lamps or less; and (iv) 
is designated and marketed specifically for vibration service or 
vibration-resistant applications, with--(I) the designation appearing 
on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that identify the 
lamp as being vibration service only.'' (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(AA))
    The statute mentions three examples of filament configurations for 
vibration service lamps in Figure 6-12 of the IESNA Lighting Handbook, 
one of which (i.e., C-7A) is also listed in the statutory definition of 
``rough service lamp.'' The definition of ``vibration service lamp'' 
requires that such lamps have a maximum wattage of 60 watts and be sold 
at a retail level in packages of two lamps or less. Similar to rough 
service lamps, vibration service lamps must be designated and marketed 
for vibration service or vibration-resistant applications. As the name 
suggests, this type of incandescent lamp is generally used in 
applications where the incandescent lamp would be subject to a 
continuous low level of vibration, such as in a ceiling fan light kit. 
In such applications, standard incandescent lamps without additional 
filament support wires may not achieve the full rated life, because the 
filament wire is brittle and would be subject to breakage at typical 
operating temperature. To address this problem, lamp manufacturers 
typically use a more malleable tungsten filament to avoid damage and 
short circuits between coils.

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``3-way incandescent lamp.'' The 
statutory definition reads as follows: ``The term `3-way incandescent 
lamp' includes an incandescent lamp that--(i) employs 2 filaments, 
operated separately and in combination, to provide 3 light levels; and 
(ii) is designated on the lamp packaging and marketing materials as 
being a 3-way incandescent lamp.'' (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Y))
    Three-way lamps are commonly found in wattage combinations such as 
50, 100, and 150 watts or 30, 70, and 100 watts. These lamps use two 
filaments (e.g., a 30-watt and a 70-watt filament) and can be operated 
separately or together to produce three different lumen outputs (e.g., 
305 lumens with one filament, 995 lumens with the other, or 1,300 
lumens using the filaments together). When used in 3-way sockets, these 
lamps allow users to control the light level. Three-way incandescent 
lamps are typically used in residential multi-purpose areas, where 
consumers may adjust the light level to be appropriate for the task 
they are performing.

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

    The statute does not provide a definition of ``2,601-3,300 Lumen 
General Service Incandescent Lamps''; however, DOE is interpreting this 
term to be a general service incandescent lamp \2\ that emits between 
2,601 and 3,300 lumens. In this lumen range, the wattages of covered 
general service incandescent lamps are between 140 and 170 watts. 
Within that range, the only commonly made lamp that meets other general 
service incandescent lamp criteria is rated at 150 watts. Should other 
rated wattages enter the market that fall within this lumen range, they 
will be immediately recognizable because as required by the Energy 
Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486, all general service 
incandescent lamps must be labeled with lamp lumen output.\3\ These 
lamps are used in general service applications when high light output 
is needed.
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    \2\ ``General service incandescent lamp'' is defined as a 
standard incandescent or halogen type lamp that--(I) is intended for 
general service applications; (II) has a medium screw base; (III) 
has a lumen range of not less than 310 lumens and not more than 
2,600 lumens; and (IV) is capable of being operated at a voltage 
range at least partially within 110 and 130 volts. (42 U.S.C. 
6291(30)(D))
    \3\ The Federal Trade Commission issued the lamp labeling 
requirements in 1994 (see 59 FR 25176 (May 13, 1994)). Further 
amendments were made to the lamp labeling requirements in 2007 (see 
16 CFR 305.15(b); 72 FR 49948, 49971-72 (August 29, 2007)). The 
package must display the lamp's light output (in lumens), energy use 
(in watts), and lamp life (in hours).
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E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-proof 
lamp, or shatter-protected lamp.'' The statutory definition reads as 
follows: ``The terms `shatter-resistant lamp,' `shatter-proof lamp,' 
and `shatter-protected lamp' mean a lamp that--(i) has a coating or 
equivalent technology that is compliant with [National Sanitation 
Foundation/

[[Page 18427]]

American National Standards Institute] NSF/ANSI 51 and is designed to 
contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp is broken; and (ii) 
is designated and marketed for the intended application, with--(I) the 
designation on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that 
identify the lamp as being shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or 
shatter-protected.'' (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Z)) Although the definition 
provides three names commonly used to refer to these lamps, DOE simply 
refers to them collectively as ``shatter-resistant lamps.''
    Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a special coating designed to 
prevent glass shards from being strewn if a lamp's glass envelope 
breaks. Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a coating compliant with 
industry standard NSF/ANSI 51,\4\ ``Food Equipment Materials,'' and are 
labeled and marketed as shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-
protected. The coatings protect the lamp from breakage in applications 
subject to heat and thermal shock that may occur from water, sleet, 
snow, soldering, or welding.
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    \4\ NSF/ANSI 51 applies specifically to materials and coatings 
used in the manufacturing of equipment and objects destined for 
contact with foodstuffs.
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III. Comparison Methodology

    In the 2008 analysis, DOE reviewed each of the five sets of 
shipment data that were collected in consultation with NEMA and applied 
two curve fits to generate unit sales estimates for the five lamp types 
after calendar year 2006. One curve fit applied a linear regression to 
the historical data and extends that line into the future. The other 
curve fit applied an exponential growth function to the shipment data 
and projects unit sales into the future. For this calculation, linear 
regression treats the year as a dependent variable and shipments as the 
independent variable. The linear regression curve fit is modeled by 
minimizing the differences among the data points and the best curve-fit 
linear line using the least squares function.\5\ The exponential curve 
fit is also a regression function and uses the same least squares 
function to find the best fit. For some data sets, an exponential curve 
provides a better characterization of the historical data, and, 
therefore, a better projection of the future data.
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    \5\ The least squares function is an analytical tool that DOE 
uses to minimize the sum of the squared residual differences between 
the actual historical data points and the modeled value (i.e., the 
linear curve fit). In minimizing this value, the resulting curve fit 
will represent the best fit possible to the data provided.
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    For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE found that the 
linear regression and exponential growth curve fits produced nearly the 
same estimates of unit sales (i.e., the difference between the two 
forecasted values was less than 1 or 2 percent). However, for rough 
service and vibration service lamps, the linear regression curve fit 
projects lamp unit sales would decline to zero for both lamp types by 
2018. In contrast, the exponential growth curve fit projected a more 
gradual decline in unit sales, such that lamps will still be sold 
beyond 2018, and it was, therefore, considered the more realistic 
forecast. While DOE would be satisfied that either the linear 
regression or exponential growth spreadsheet model would generate a 
reasonable benchmark unit sales estimate for 3-way incandescent lamps, 
2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-
resistant lamps, DOE is selecting the exponential growth curve fit for 
these lamp types for consistency with the selection made for rough 
service and vibration service lamps.\6\ DOE examines the benchmark unit 
sales estimates and actual sales for each of the five lamp types in the 
following section and also makes the comparisons available in a 
spreadsheet online at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/five_lamp_types.html.
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    \6\ See DOE's 2008 forecast spreadsheet models of the lamp types 
for greater detail. The spreadsheet models are available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/docs/five_lamp_types_models.xls.
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IV. Comparison Results

A. Rough Service Lamps

    For rough service lamps, the exponential growth forecast projected 
the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2010 to be 6,395,000 units. The 
NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 7,971,000 rough 
service lamps in 2010. As this finding exceeds the estimate by only 
24.6 percent, DOE will continue to track rough service lamp sales data 
and will not initiate regulatory action for this lamp type at this 
time.

B. Vibration Service Lamps

    For vibration service lamps, the exponential growth forecast 
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2010 to be 3,341,000 
units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 674,000 
vibration service lamps in 2010. As this finding is only 20.2 percent 
of the estimate, DOE will continue to track vibration service lamp 
sales data and will not initiate regulatory action for this lamp type 
at this time.

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

    For 3-way incandescent lamps, the exponential growth forecast 
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2010 to be 51,177,000 
units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 29,140,000 
3-way incandescent lamps in 2010. As this finding is only 56.9 percent 
of the estimate, DOE will continue to track 3-way incandescent lamp 
sales data and will not initiate regulatory action for this lamp type 
at this time.

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

    For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, the 
exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate 
for 2010 to be 33,848,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment data 
reported shipments of 7,140,000 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamps in 2010. As this finding is 21.1 percent of the 
estimate, DOE will continue to track 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamp sales data and will not initiate regulatory action 
for this lamp type at this time.

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

    For shatter-resistant lamps, the exponential growth forecast 
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2010 to be 1,655,000 
units. The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 848,000 
shatter-resistant lamps in 2010. As this finding is only 51.2 percent 
of the estimate, DOE will continue to track shatter-resistant lamp 
sales data and will not initiate regulatory action for this lamp type 
at this time.

V. Conclusion

    None of the shipments for the rough service lamps, vibration 
service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general 
service incandescent lamps, or shatter-resistant lamps crossed the 
statutory threshold for a standard. DOE will monitor the situation for 
these five currently exempted lamp types and will reassess 2011 sales 
by March 31, 2012, in order to determine whether energy conservation 
standards rulemaking is required, consistent with 42 U.S.C. 
6295(l)(4)(D)-(H).


[[Page 18428]]


    Issued in Washington, DC, on March 30, 2011.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency, Office of Technology 
Development, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2011-7939 Filed 4-1-11; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P