[Federal Register Volume 74, Number 40 (Tuesday, March 3, 2009)]
[Notices]
[Pages 9214-9217]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E9-4380]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

 Census Bureau


Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; 2010 Census 
Integrated Communication Program Evaluation

AGENCY: U.S. Census Bureau, Commerce.

ACTION: Notice.

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SUMMARY: The Department of Commerce, as part of its continuing effort 
to reduce paperwork and respondent burden, invites the general public 
and other Federal agencies to take this opportunity to comment on 
proposed and/or continuing information collections, as required by the 
Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995, Public Law 104-13 (44 U.S.C. 
3506(c)(2)(A)).

DATES: To ensure consideration, written comments must be submitted on 
or before May 4, 2009.

ADDRESSES: Direct all written comments to Diana Hynek, Departmental 
Paperwork Clearance Officer, Department of Commerce, Room 7845, 14th 
and Constitution Avenue, NW., Washington, DC 20230 (or via the Internet 
at [email protected]).

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Requests for additional information or 
copies of the information collection instrument(s) and instructions 
should be directed to Donna Souders, Bureau of the Census, HQ-3H470A, 
Washington DC; (301) 763-1810 (or via the Internet at 
[email protected]).

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

I. Abstract

    The Census Bureau will conduct the 2010 Census Program for 
Evaluations and Experiments (CPEX) to evaluate the current census and 
to build a foundation on which to make early and informed decisions for 
planning the next census in 2020. Program planners designed CPEX to 
measure the effectiveness of the 2010 Census design (including 
operations, systems, and processes), in addition to determining how the 
design impacts data quality. The intent of this public notice is to 
present the plan for and to invite comments on one CPEX project: The 
2010 Census Integrated Communication Program (ICP) Evaluation.
    In September 2007, the Census Bureau contracted the services of 
Draftfcb, Inc., a marketing communications agency, to create, produce 
and implement an integrated marketing and communications campaign in 
support of the 2010

[[Page 9215]]

Census. The contract, known as the 2010 Census Integrated Communication 
Campaign (ICC), was awarded as an Indefinite Delivery--Indefinite 
Quantity (IDIQ), multiple-year contract (one 12-month base year and 
three 12-month option years), with an estimated value of $207 million.
    The 2010 Census ICC is the second time that the decennial census 
has involved a paid advertising campaign. Evaluations of the Census 
2000 paid advertising campaign indicated that the effort contributed to 
increasing mail returns of census forms, thereby reducing costs of the 
Non-Response Follow-Up operation. The 2010 Census ICC contract is a 
major public expenditure and has great potential to affect the quality 
and overall cost of the 2010 Census. For these reasons, a rigorous and 
independent evaluation of the 2010 Census ICC is essential for 
assessing the success of the 2010 Census and planning for the 2020 
Census.
    The 2010 Census ICC also includes partnerships, the Census in 
Schools effort, and other related outreach programs and activities to 
the public. The Census Bureau partnership campaign involves the Census 
Bureau partnering with state and local organizations, including 
churches and social organizations, to help U.S. residents learn about 
the Census, and be encouraged to participate by people they trust 
rather than the government collecting the data. The Census in Schools 
campaign is an effort to reach families through their school-age 
children.
    In the fall of 2008, after an open competition, the Census Bureau 
awarded a contract to the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at 
the University of Chicago to conduct an evaluation of the 2010 Census 
ICC. NORC is tasked with conducting an independent evaluation of the 
integrated marketing communication campaign to determine if the 
campaign is achieving its goals. The purpose of the evaluation is to 
assess the impact of the entire campaign in addition to determining the 
contribution of each of its components: Paid media/advertising, 
partnerships, the Census in Schools program, and related outreach to 
the public. NORC has developed an evaluation strategy to determine if 
the following three goals were achieved by the 2010 Census ICC.
    (1) Increased mail response;
    (2) Reduced differential undercount; and
    (3) Improved cooperation with enumerators.
    NORC's evaluation of the effectiveness of the overall campaign also 
involves assessing the extent to which the campaign moves people toward 
the goal of responding to the census. This may consist of measuring the 
effectiveness of specific messages for target audiences, measuring 
increases in awareness of the census and changes in attitudes toward 
the census (survey research), and measuring changes in intention to 
return the census form and actual return of the form (survey research; 
modeling). These are general measures of effectiveness, and when used 
together, provide a good indicator of how well a campaign does in 
support of the overall objectives.
    NORC's evaluation will objectively measure whether campaign 
strategies and tactics were effective in raising awareness, changing 
attitudes and/or beliefs, and influencing behavior. In assessing the 
overall effectiveness of the campaign, NORC will also identify and 
measure the impact of key phenomena pertaining to the 2010 Census, but 
outside the scope of the official ICP. This includes acknowledgement 
and measurement of breaking events.
    Finally, NORC will compare the knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs 
about the Census held by Americans before, during, and after the 2010 
Census ICC implementation with those held at similar points in time 
relative to the Census 2000.
    Populations of Interest: The Census Bureau and Draftfcb have 
identified two classifications of the U.S. population that undergird 
much of the design and implementation of the 2010 Census ICC. These two 
classifications figure prominently in the sample design and analysis 
plan for the 2010 Census ICP Evaluation. First, the Census Bureau has 
identified five race/ethnicity populations of particular priority in 
census outreach efforts. These are: Black Africans and African-
Americans, Hispanics of any race, Native Hawaiians and other Pacific 
Islanders, American Indians and Alaska Natives, and Asians. In 
addition, Draftfcb and the Census Bureau have devised an audience 
segmentation that classifies all census tracts in the United States 
into one of eight segments that share similar socioeconomic and other 
demographic characteristics as well as propensity to complete the 
census form. The eight audience segments are: Advantaged Homeowners, 
All Around Average I, All Around Average II, Economically 
Disadvantaged, Ethnic Enclave I, Single Unattached Mobiles, 
Economically Disadvantaged II, and Ethnic Enclave II. The audience 
segments provide the basis for 2010 Census ICC decisions regarding 
resources, media selection, and tailored messages.

Evaluation Design

    NORC's proposed evaluation design involves the following key 
elements: conduct surveys of the general public based on probability 
methods that combine cross-sectional, time-series samples with 
longitudinal samples to maximize the statistical power of cross-
sectional estimates and change over time and in response to 2010 Census 
ICC efforts. NORC will conduct hybrid (cross-sectional/longitudinal) 
surveys with probability samples of United States households, 
oversampling minority populations and other target segments, at three 
points in time--[Wave 1] during the earliest phases of partnership 
activity, in mid-2009 to assess baseline levels of all measures of 
public attention and intentions that will be the focus of the 2010 
Census ICC; [Wave 2] during the expected peak of 2010 Census ICC 
activity from January through May 2010; and [Wave 3] during the post 
mailout period from May through August 2010.
    Exposure to components of the 2010 Census ICC will be estimated 
using several data sources in addition to survey data. These data 
sources will permit exploration of relationships between intensity of 
campaign activity and changes in awareness, attitudes, and intentions 
among the general public and key population subgroups. Data sources 
will include ratings and impressions data for the paid advertising 
campaign, and the Census Bureau's Integrated Campaign Partnership 
Database (ICPD) data for measuring partnership activity. NORC also 
plans to merge actual data on household participation in the 2010 
Census with the survey records of households in the 2010 Census ICP 
Evaluation survey sample for a more detailed and accurate record of 
households' census participation, including mailback status, 
cooperation with enumerators, and other indicators of census actions 
regarding these households' 2010 participation. Each of these 
alternative data sources will be essential in corroborating, 
triangulating with, or providing alternative measures of exposure to 
the self-reported campaign exposure measures collected through surveys.
    NORC will collaborate with Census Bureau staff to compile 
aggregate-level data on the 2010 Census ICC effort and Census results 
to analyze the relationships between measures of planned and actual 
2010 Census ICC activity (by component) and aggregate Census 
participation results (mail response, enumerator response, non-
response) in 1990, 2000, and 2010 to

[[Page 9216]]

identify trends over time in target segments and for hard-to-count 
areas.
    To improve the ability of the NORC design to detect a relationship 
between campaign exposure and response, there will also be 
`observational case-control studies.' In these studies, additional 
cases will be added in geographical areas selected as matched pairs. 
These pairs will be similar on socio-demographic and psychosocial 
characteristics but may be likely to experience planned or unplanned 
variations in the implementation of 2010 Census ICC components. The 
pairs will be determined during the course of the 2010 Census ICP 
Evaluation using evidence gathered from Draftfcb strategy and 
implementation, Waves 1 and 2 data from this evaluation, as well as the 
ancillary data mentioned above. The objective is to compare public 
exposure to the persuasive messages delivered through 2010 Census ICC 
components and to measure the resulting differential impact (if any), 
improving the clarity of the evidence for 2010 Census ICC effects.
    Combining and interpreting results from multiple analytical 
approaches will improve the capacity of the design to answer the key 
evaluation questions concerning the impact of the 2010 Census ICC and 
its components, and the return on investment of 2010 Census ICC 
resources with respect to the three primary outcomes of interest. As 
needed, qualitative data collection may further inform or illuminate 
puzzles within the analysis activity.

Sample Selection

    The 2010 Census ICP Evaluation data collection plan calls for 3,000 
cases each in Waves 1 and 2, and 4,200 cases in Wave 3. Approximately 
1,500 cases in each of Waves 2 and 3 will come from a longitudinal 
panel of Wave 1 cases, while the remaining cases in the Wave will be 
selected for the first time.
    In Waves 1 and 2, equal numbers of cases will come from each of the 
five race/ethnicity populations and the remaining non-targeted group. 
The sample size of 500 per race/ethnicity group used in the 2000 
Partnership and Marketing Program Evaluation (PMPE), the analogous 
evaluation from the 2000 Census, resulted in design effects around 2.0 
and standard errors of 3.2 percent (on a binary proportion of 50 
percent). The same sample sizes are planned for the 2010 Census ICP 
Evaluation. For Wave 3, the sample size will grow to 900 for each of 
the three largest race/ethnicity groups (non-targeted, non-Hispanic 
Black African and African-American, Hispanic of any race). This will 
not only decrease the standard errors for this wave, but will also 
permit selection of additional respondents into the sample to support 
the observational study design described above.
    The three largest race/ethnicity groups will be fielded together as 
a core sample from a nationally representative sample of households 
selected using NORC's 2000 National Frame. The three additional samples 
are of sufficiently rare populations that they must be selected 
separately.

Three Supplemental Samples

    For the remaining three race/ethnicity populations, manipulating 
the tracts and segments selected will not be sufficient to meet the 
target sample sizes. Therefore, NORC will have to field independent 
samples. Asian and Native Hawaiian samples can be drawn from addresses 
in NORC's National Frame, but American Indian/Alaska Native reservation 
samples will require fresh listing.
American Indians/Alaska Native (AIAN)
    According to the 2000 Census, there were 3,420,171 persons living 
in the United States that were non-Hispanic and AIAN (alone or in 
combination with another race), and 998,199 living on the 651 U.S. 
reservations (29.3 percent of the AIAN population). For cost-
efficiency, NORC will select Waves 1, 2, and 3 samples from 20 
reservations out of the 283 reservations with at least 250 AIANs.
Asians
    According to the 2000 Census, there were 11,266,934 persons in the 
United States that were non-Hispanic and Asian (alone or in combination 
with another race). Of these, 17.0 percent live in the five U.S. cities 
with the largest Asian populations, and 29.3 percent live in the 40 
cities with the largest Asian populations that also satisfy a density 
of 10 percent. NORC will select Waves 1, 2, and 3 samples from 40 
cities within its National Frame (some, like Fremont, CA, are not the 
central city for a metropolitan statistical area).
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHOPI)
    According to the 2000 Census, there were 860,965 persons living in 
the United States who were non-Hispanic and NHOPI (alone or in 
combination with another race). Of these persons, 32.8 percent live in 
the state of Hawaii, and 23.32 percent of Hawaii residents are NHOPI; 
less than 1 percent of residents are NHOPI in all other states. The 
state with the largest NHOPI population outside of Hawaii is 
California, which contains 25.4 percent of U.S. NHOPIs, but only 0.64 
percent of California residents are NHOPI. The state with the next 
largest NHOPI population is Washington, which has 4.8 percent of U.S. 
NHOPIs, but only 0.70 percent of Washington residents are NHOPI. NORC 
will select Waves 1, 2, and 3 samples from all five counties in Hawaii.
    The Census Bureau is discussing the sampling strategies for these 
three supplemental samples with NORC and may propose an alternative 
approach.

Analysis

    The 2010 Census ICP Evaluation questionnaires will cover such 
topics as: Demographics; general media use and other activities that 
might lead to exposure to the 2010 Census ICC; knowledge, attitudes, 
and beliefs about the Census; intent to participate; actions taken upon 
receipt of the Census form or interactions with Census enumerators 
(depending on the timing of the wave); and self-reported exposure to 
2010 Census ICC activities, including unaided and aided awareness and 
confirmed recall questions.
    Analyses will include cross-sectional examinations of each wave's 
data independently, as well as repeated cross-section and longitudinal 
analyses across waves. By incorporating various other data sources, 
NORC will be able to estimate campaign evaluation-style models for 
assessing the impact of various components of the 2010 Census ICC. 
Analyses will focus on the general public, the five hard-to-enumerate 
groups, and the eight audience segments. For each of these sub-
populations, NORC will discuss the various research questions described 
above.

II. Method of Collection

Pre-Testing of Survey Instruments

    At least 75 percent of the questionnaire items for all three waves' 
instruments have previously been administered in national surveys 
cleared by Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Chiefly, the source 
instruments are from the 2000 PMPE and the Census Barriers, Attitudes, 
and Motivations Survey (fielded in 2008, by Macro International Inc. 
for DraftFCB). Additional pre-testing of the proposed instruments will 
be conducted under the generic OMB clearance provided to the Census 
Bureau for CPEX data collection. All three draft questionnaires will be 
pre-tested using cognitive interviewing techniques and then for 
accuracy of timing estimates. Convenience sample respondents will

[[Page 9217]]

be recruited from the general public, the five hard-to-enumerate 
populations identified as priorities by the Census Bureau, and the 
eight `audience segments' defined at the census-tract level.
    A key tool for improved quality of self-reported media exposure 
data is the use of confirmed recall items in which respondents are not 
only asked to report on ad viewing, but also on the details of the ad 
content. This question type will be of great value in the Waves 2 and 3 
questionnaires, when the paid advertising campaign will be in full 
swing. Final advertisements will not be developed, however, until 
closer to the time of campaign implementation. Specific questionnaire 
items will be developed and pre-tested after final advertisements are 
available for review. Templates of these question formats will be 
submitted with the original OMB package, but specific questions will be 
submitted to OMB for review after the formal clearance process has been 
completed.

Survey Schedule

    Three surveys are proposed:

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Sample size and
         Wave [dates]              composition            Comments
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 [Summer/Fall 2009]..........  3,000 evenly
                                 distributed
                                 across 6 race/
                                 ethnic groups.
2 [January 10-May 15, 2010]...  3,000 evenly       1,500 cases (evenly
                                 distributed        distributed across
                                 across 6 race/     race/ethnic groups)
                                 ethnic groups.     who completed Wave 1
                                                    as well.
3 [May 15-August 31, 2010]....  4,200, of which    + 1,500 cases (evenly
                                 3,000 evenly       distributed across
                                 distributed        race/ethnic groups)
                                 across 6 race/     who completed Wave 1
                                 ethnic groups.     (and possibly Wave
                                                    2) as well.
                                                   + 1,200 cases in
                                                    selected sites for
                                                    `observational case
                                                    control'.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mixed-Mode Data Collection

    NORC will employ an address-based sampling design that marries the 
comprehensive coverage of address lists with the cost effectiveness of 
telephone data collection. Through telephone number matching services 
and advance letter requests to sampled addresses, NORC will begin the 
data collection effort by telephone, expecting to obtain phone numbers 
for approximately 60 percent of the selected sample. Cases will then 
also be solicited for web completion, or completion by mail and by 
paper-and-pencil Self-Administered Questionnaire. A sub-sample of all 
cases not completed will be fielded in-person. Telephone interviewing 
will make use of Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing technologies, 
while in-person data collection will make use of paper and pencil 
questionnaires. Telephone and in-person data collection will be 
conducted in the languages of the 2010 census form: English, Spanish, 
Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese and Russian.

III. Data

    OMB Control Number: None.
    Form Number: To be determined.
    Type of Review: Regular submission.
    Affected Public: Households.
    Estimated Number of Respondents: 7,200.
    Estimated Time per Response: 30 minutes.
    Estimated Total Annual Burden Hours: 5,100.
2009: 1,500 hours (Wave 1).
2010: 3,600 hours (Waves 2 and 3).
    Estimated Total Annual Cost: $0.
    Respondent's Obligation: Voluntary.
    Legal Authority: Title 13 U.S.C. 141 and 193.

IV. Request for Comments

    Comments are invited on: (a) Whether the proposed collection of 
information is necessary for the proper performance of the functions of 
the agency, including whether the information shall have practical 
utility; (b) the accuracy of the agency's estimate of the burden 
(including hours and cost) of the proposed collection of information; 
(c) ways to enhance the quality, utility, and clarity of the 
information to be collected; and (d) ways to minimize the burden of the 
collection of information on respondents, including through the use of 
automated collection techniques or other forms of information 
technology.
    Comments submitted in response to this notice will be summarized 
and/or included in the request for OMB approval of this information 
collection; they also will become a matter of public record.

    Dated: February 25, 2009.
Gwellnar Banks,
Management Analyst, Office of the Chief Information Officer.
[FR Doc. E9-4380 Filed 3-2-09; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-07-P