[Federal Register Volume 73, Number 248 (Wednesday, December 24, 2008)]
[Notices]
[Page 79072]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E8-30608]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY


Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Estimated Future 
Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of data availability.

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SUMMARY: The Department of Energy (DOE) is informing the public of its 
collection of historical data and creation of spreadsheet models to 
provide a benchmark estimate future unit sales of five lamp types 
(i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent 
lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and 
shatter resistant lamps). Relating to this activity, DOE prepared and 
is making available on its Web site: (1) a report that summarizes the 
methodology and presents the benchmark estimate of future unit sales 
for the five lamp types and (2) the spreadsheet model used to generate 
that estimate based on their respective historical annual growth rates. 
Both the report and the spreadsheet are available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/five_lamp_types.html.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Send requests for additional 
information to Mrs. Linda Graves, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of 
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies, EE-2J, 
1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121, (202) 586-
1851. E-mail: [email protected]. In the Office of General 
Counsel, contact Ms. Francine Pinto, U.S. Department of Energy, Office 
of General Counsel, GC-72, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, 
DC 20585, (202) 586-9507. E-mail: [email protected].

Discussion

    Section 321(a)(3)(B) of Energy Independence and Security Act of 
2007 (EISA 2007) amends section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraph 
(4)(B) that generally directs DOE in consultation with the National 
Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) to (1) collect historical 
unit sales \1\ data for each of the five lamp types (i.e., rough 
service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 
2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-
resistant lamps) and (2) construct a spreadsheet model for each of the 
five lamp types based on coincident economic indicators that closely 
match the historical annual growth rates of each lamp type to provide a 
neutral comparison benchmark estimate of future unit sales. (42 U.S.C. 
6295(l)(4)(B).) These estimates of future unit sales for each of the 
five lamp types constitute a neutral comparison benchmark against which 
DOE will later compare actual unit sales data starting with calendar 
2010. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C).)
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    \1\ In this analysis, DOE uses (and intends to continue to use) 
manufacturer shipments as a surrogate for unit sales. This 
assumption presumes that retailer inventories remain constant from 
year to year. DOE believes this is a reasonable assumption because 
the markets for these five lamp types have existed for many years, 
enabling manufacturers and retailers to establish appropriate 
inventory levels that reflect market demand. Furthermore, in the 
long-run, unit sales could not increase in any one year without 
manufacturer shipments increasing either that year or the following 
one. In either case, increasing unit sales must eventually result in 
increasing manufacturer shipments.
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    DOE worked in consultation with NEMA to collect actual data for 
unit sales of each of the five lamp types for calendar years 1990 
through 2006. DOE also constructed a model for each type of lamp that 
is based on the historical annual growth rate of the lamps which 
provides a benchmark estimate of future unit sales for each of the five 
lamp types. DOE has posted on its Web page \2\ (1) a report that 
summarizes the methodology and presents the benchmark estimate of 
future unit sales and (2) a spreadsheet model that was used to estimate 
future unit sales for the five lamp types based on the historical 
annual growth rates for each.
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    \2\ The address for the Web page is given in the SUMMARY portion 
of this Notice.
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    The report defines each of the five lamp types, presents the 
historical data that was provided by NEMA, discusses the methodology 
followed in analyzing that data to generate the estimated future unit 
sales, and presents the results for the five lamp types. The report 
also discusses the regulatory provisions in the statute for each of the 
five lamp types that would be enacted if the unit sales of one of these 
lamp types exceeded the benchmark estimate in any given year by 100 
percent (i.e., double the benchmark estimate level).
    The spreadsheet contains the five models constructed for each of 
the lamp types, in compliance with section 325(l)(4)(B)(ii) of EPCA. 
These models closely match the historical annual growth rate of each 
lamp type and generate an estimate of future unit sales based on those 
trends. This future unit sales estimate constitutes the neutral 
comparison benchmark against which DOE will later conduct comparisons.

    Issued in Washington, DC, on December 18, 2008.
John F. Mizroch,
Acting Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. E8-30608 Filed 12-23-08; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P