[Federal Register Volume 71, Number 208 (Friday, October 27, 2006)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 62972-62984]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 06-8932]



[[Page 62972]]

=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 648

RIN 0648-AT60
[Docket No. 061020273-6273-01; I.D. 101606A]


Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder, 
Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fisheries; 2007 Summer Flounder, Scup, and 
Black Sea Bass Specifications; 2007 Research Set-Aside Projects

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed specifications; request for comments.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: NMFS proposes specifications for the 2007 summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass fisheries. The implementing regulations for 
the Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fishery Management Plan 
(FMP) require NMFS to publish specifications for the upcoming fishing 
year for each of the species and to provide an opportunity for public 
comment. The intent of this action is to establish harvest levels that 
assure that the target fishing mortality rates (F) or exploitation 
rates specified for these species in the FMP are not exceeded and to 
allow for rebuilding of the stocks in accordance with the Magnuson-
Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (Magnuson-Stevens Act). 
NMFS has conditionally approved four research projects for the harvest 
of the portion of the quota that has been recommended by the Mid-
Atlantic Fishery Management Council (Council) to be set aside for 
research purposes. In anticipation of receiving applications for 
Experimental Fishing Permits (EFPs) to conduct this research, the 
Assistant Regional Administrator for Sustainable Fisheries, Northeast 
Region, NMFS (Assistant Regional Administrator), has made a preliminary 
determination that the activities authorized under the EFPs issued in 
response to the approved Research Set-Aside (RSA) projects would be 
consistent with the goals and objectives of the FMP. However, further 
review and consultation may be necessary before a final determination 
is made to issue any EFP.

DATES: Comments must be received on or before November 17, 2006.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments by any of the following methods:
     E-mail: [email protected]. Include in the subject line the 
following identifier: ``Comments on 2007 Summer Flounder, Scup, and 
Black Sea Bass Specifications.''
     Federal e-Rulemaking portal: http://www.regulations.gov.
     Mail and hand delivery: Patricia A. Kurkul, Regional 
Administrator, NMFS, Northeast Regional Office, One Blackburn Drive, 
Gloucester, MA 01930. Mark the outside of the envelope: ``Comments on 
2007 Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Specifications.''
     Fax: (978) 281-9135.
    Copies of the specifications document, including the Environmental 
Assessment, Regulatory Impact Review, and Initial Regulatory 
Flexibility Analysis (EA/RIR/IRFA) and other supporting documents for 
the specifications are available from Daniel Furlong, Executive 
Director, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, Room 2115, Federal 
Building, 300 South Street, Dover, DE 19901-6790. Copies of the 
supplemental economic analysis are available from Patricia A. Kurkul, 
Regional Administrator, Northeast Region, National Marine Fisheries 
Service, One Blackburn Drive, Gloucester, MA 01930-2298. These 
documents are also accessible via the Internet at http://www.nero.noaa.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Sarah McLaughlin, Fishery Policy 
Analyst, (978) 281-9279.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    The summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass fisheries are managed 
cooperatively by the Council and the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries 
Commission (Commission), in consultation with the New England and South 
Atlantic Fishery Management Councils. The management units specified in 
the FMP include summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in U.S. waters 
of the Atlantic Ocean from the southern border of North Carolina (NC) 
northward to the U.S./Canada border, and scup (Stenotomus chrysops) and 
black sea bass (Centropristis striata) in U.S. waters of the Atlantic 
Ocean from 35[deg]13.3' N. lat. (the latitude of Cape Hatteras 
Lighthouse, Buxton, NC) northward to the U.S./Canada border. 
Implementing regulations for these fisheries are found at 50 CFR part 
648, subpart A (General Provisions), subpart G (summer flounder), 
subpart H (scup), and subpart I (black sea bass).
    The regulations outline the process for specifying the annual 
commercial quotas and recreational harvest limits for the summer 
flounder, scup, and black sea bass fisheries, as well as other 
management measures (e.g., mesh requirements, minimum fish sizes, gear 
restrictions, possession restrictions, and area restrictions) for these 
fisheries. The measures are intended to achieve the annual targets set 
forth for each species in the FMP, specified either as an F or an 
exploitation rate (the proportion of fish available at the beginning of 
the year that are removed by fishing during the year). Once the catch 
limits are established, they are divided into quotas based on formulas 
contained in the FMP.
    As required by the FMP, a Monitoring Committee for each species, 
made up of members from NMFS, the Commission, and both the Mid-Atlantic 
and New England Fishery Management Councils, reviews the best available 
scientific information and recommends catch limits and other management 
measures that will achieve the target F or exploitation rate for each 
fishery. Consistent with the implementation of Framework Adjustment 5 
to the FMP (69 FR 62818, October 28, 2004), each Monitoring Committee 
meets annually to recommend the Total Allowable Landings (TAL), unless 
the TAL has already been established for the upcoming calendar year as 
part of a multiple-year specification process, provided that new 
information does not require a modification to the multiple-year 
quotas. Further, the TALs may be specified in any given year for the 
following 1, 2, or 3 years. The Council is not obligated to specify 
multi-year TALs, but is able to do so, depending on the information 
available and the status of the fisheries.
    The Council's Demersal Species Committee and the Commission's 
Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Management Board (Board) 
consider the Monitoring Committees' recommendations and any public 
comment and make their own recommendations. While the Board action is 
final, the Council's recommendations must be reviewed by NMFS to assure 
that they comply with FMP objectives. The Council and Board made their 
recommendations, with the exception of Board recommendations for the 
2007 summer flounder fishery, at a joint meeting held August 1-3, 2006. 
The Board delayed its action regarding a summer flounder TAL 
recommendation until its October 22-26, 2006, meeting.

Explanation of RSA

    In 2001, regulations were implemented under Framework Adjustment 1 
to the FMP to allow up to

[[Page 62973]]

3 percent of the TAL for each species to be set aside each year for 
scientific research purposes. For the 2007 fishing year, a Request for 
Proposals was published to solicit research proposals based upon the 
research priorities that were identified by the Council (70 FR 76253, 
December 23, 2005). Four applicants were notified in August 2005 that 
their research proposals had received favorable preliminary review. For 
informational purposes, these proposed specifications include a 
statement indicating the amount of quota that has been preliminarily 
set aside for research purposes (3 percent of the TAL for each fishery, 
as recommended by the Council and Board), and a brief description of 
the RSA projects, and the amount of RSA requested for each project. The 
RSA amounts may be adjusted, following consultation with RSA 
applicants, in the final rule establishing the 2007 specifications for 
the summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass fisheries. If the total 
amount of RSA is not awarded, NMFS will publish a document in the 
Federal Register to restore the unused amount to the applicable TAL.
    For 2007, four RSA projects have been conditionally approved by 
NMFS and are currently awaiting a notice of award. These projects 
collectively may be awarded the following amounts of RSA (3 percent of 
the proposed TALs): 389,490 lb (177 mt) of summer flounder; 360,000 lb 
(163 mt) of scup; and 150,000 lb (68 mt) of black sea bass. The 
projects collectively also may be awarded up to 1,124,356 lb (510 mt) 
of Loligo squid and 363,677 lb (165 mt) of bluefish.
    The University of Rhode Island submitted a proposal to conduct a 
fourth year of work in a fishery-independent scup survey that would 
utilize unvented fish traps fished on hard bottom areas in southern New 
England waters to characterize the size composition of the scup 
population. Survey activities would be conducted from May 1 through 
November 30, 2007, at 10 rocky bottom study sites located offshore, 
where there is a minimal scup pot fishery and no active trawl fishery, 
and at 2 scup spawning ground sites. Up to two vessels would conduct 
the survey. Sampling would occur off the coasts of Rhode Island and 
southern Massachusetts. Up to three vessels would harvest the RSA 
during the period January 1 through December 31, 2007. The preliminary 
RSA requested for this project is 2,000 lb (907 kg) of summer flounder; 
40,000 lb (18 mt) of scup; and 30,000 lb (14 mt) of black sea bass.
    The National Fisheries Institute (NFI) and Rutgers University 
submitted a proposal to conduct a fifth year of work on a commercial 
vessel-based trawl survey program in the Mid-Atlantic region that would 
track the migratory behavior of selected recreationally and 
commercially important species. Information gathered during this 
project would supplement the NMFS finfish survey databases and improve 
methods to evaluate how seasonal migration of fish in the Mid-Atlantic 
influences stock abundance estimates. Up to two vessels would conduct 
survey work in the Mid-Atlantic during January, March, May, and 
November 2007, along up to eight offshore transects. The transects 
would include six fixed offshore transects, one each near Alvin, 
Hudson, Baltimore, Poor Man's, Washington, and Norfolk Canyons, and two 
to three adaptive transects positioned within the Mid-Atlantic area 
selected during a pre-cruise meeting with NFI, Rutgers University, and 
the NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center (Center). Up to 15 1-
nautical mile tows would be conducted along each transect at depths 
from 40 to 250 fathoms (73 to 457 m). Up to 25 vessels would harvest 
the RSA during the period January 1 through December 31, 2007. The 
preliminary RSA requested for the project is 223,140 lb (101 kg) of 
summer flounder; 221,581 lb (101 mt) of scup; 61,500 lb (28 mt) of 
black sea bass; 281,059 lb (127 mt) of Loligo squid; and 363,677 lb 
(165 mt) of bluefish.
    The Cornell Cooperative Extension of Suffolk County submitted a 
proposal to evaluate summer flounder discard mortality in the bottom 
trawl fishery. The project is intended to improve and enhance fishery 
information relative to discard mortality of summer flounder in the 
bottom trawl fishery. Trawl-caught summer flounder, both legal and sub-
legal size, would be measured, tagged, and kept in a live holding pen 
(net pen) for mortality monitoring. Mortality would be monitored on a 
weekly basis and fish would be released with tags after 2 weeks. 
Extended mortality and migration information would be collected upon 
recapture of tagged fish. One inshore day trip would be made every 14 
to 17 days from May to September for a total of 10 day trips. Overall, 
with 120 fish taken on each trip, a total of 1,200 fish would be 
collected from commercial vessels during the project. The research 
trips would be made aboard 15 commercial vessels (vessels of 
opportunity) engaged in the mixed trawl fishery, and would be conducted 
inshore along the coast of southern Long Island from Jones Inlet to 
Montauk Point, reaching depths of 240 ft (73 m). Areas sampled would 
include NMFS statistical areas 611, 612, 613, and 539. Vessels would be 
compensated to make three specific tows for summer flounder to assess 
trawl mortality. Duration of these tows would be 1, 2, and 3 hours. An 
additional 25 vessels would harvest the RSA amounts allocated to the 
project over the course of the fishing year. The preliminary RSA 
requested for the project is 178,000 lbs (81 mt) of summer flounder.
    The National Fisheries Institute (NFI) and Rutgers University 
submitted a proposal to conduct studies on bycatch reduction and gear 
development in the Mid-Atlantic through evaluation of optimal codend 
mesh size in the Loligo squid fishery. The project would evaluate the 
performance of intermediate codend mesh sizes above the present legal 
size of 1.875 inches (4.8 cm) and below 2.5 inches (6.35 cm), e.g. mesh 
sizes of 2.125 inches (5.4 cm) and 2.25 inches (5.7 cm). The 
researchers would also attempt to determine the influence of these 
intermediate mesh sizes on the catch of other species such as 
butterfish, silver hake, and accompanying bycatch species as well as 
Loligo squid measuring below market size (4 inches (10.2 cm)). The 
project would use two similar vessels in the 75- to 100-ft (23- to 30-
m) range to test different mesh sizes in squid nets under commercial 
use. The exact number of tows would depend on the duration of each tow, 
which would be determined by the vessel captain during fishing. The 
research would involve a total of 108 to 144 tows, each lasting 
approximately 2-3 hours, and would take place in February and/or March 
2007 near the Hudson Canyon. Approximately 25 vessels would harvest the 
RSA amounts allocated to the project over the course of the fishing 
year. The preliminary RSA requested for the project is 163,633 lb (74 
mt) of summer flounder; 269,305 lb (122 mt) of scup; 40,358 lb (18 mt) 
of black sea bass; and 331,000 lb (150 mt) of Loligo squid.
    Regulations under the Magnuson-Stevens Act require publication of 
this notification to provide interested parties the opportunity to 
comment on applications for proposed EFPs.

Explanation of Quota Adjustments Due to Quota Overages

    This action proposes commercial quotas based on the proposed TALs 
and Total Allowable Catches (TACs) and the formulas for allocation 
contained in the FMP. In 2002, NMFS published final regulations to 
implement a regulatory amendment (67 FR 6877, February 14, 2002) that 
revised the way in which the commercial quotas for summer

[[Page 62974]]

flounder, scup, and black sea bass are adjusted if landings in any 
fishing year exceed the quota allocated (thus resulting in a quota 
overage). If NMFS approves a different TAL or TAC at the final 
specifications stage, the commercial quotas will be recalculated based 
on the formulas in the FMP. Likewise, if new information indicates that 
overages have occurred and deductions are necessary, NMFS will publish 
notice of the adjusted quotas in the Federal Register. NMFS anticipates 
that the information necessary to determine whether overage deductions 
are necessary will be available by the time the final specifications 
are published. The commercial quotas contained in these proposed 
specifications for summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass do not 
reflect any deductions for overages. The final specifications, however, 
will contain quotas that have been adjusted consistent with the 
procedures described above.

Summer Flounder

    The Center's Southern Demersal Working Group met in May 2005 to 
address the terms of reference for Stock Assessment Workshop (SAW) 41. 
The Stock Assessment Review Committee (SARC) accepted the 2005 stock 
assessment update as the basis for management advice, and also accepted 
the Demersal Working Group's recommended updated biological reference 
point values as follows: Fmsy=Fmax=0.276; MSY=42 
million lb (22,000 mt), and Bmsy=204 million lb (92,532 mt). 
Fmsy is the fishing mortality rate that, if applied 
constantly, would result in maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Fmax 
is the level of fishing mortality that produces maximum yield per 
recruit. When F > Fmax, overfishing is considered to be 
occurring, and when B<\1/2\ Bmsy, the stock is considered 
overfished.
    The Southern Demersal Working Group met on June 20, 2006, to update 
the summer flounder assessment through 2005/2006 based on the latest 
research survey and fisheries catch data available. This was a routine 
annual update, as called for by the FMP, and was based on the same 
population model as used in recent years. Key results of the update 
were as follows: Overfishing is occurring (i.e., F > Fmax). 
Almost all of the full-age structure state and Federal survey indices 
used to update the assessment have dropped since 2003. Mean fish weight 
has decreased, and this has contributed to increased fishing mortality, 
as more fish are taken by weight for a given catch level. The 2005 F 
was estimated to have been 0.53, a significant decline from the 1.32 
estimated for 1994, but well above the threshold F of 0.276. The stock 
was not determined to be overfished and was estimated to be just above 
the biomass threshold. Total stock biomass (TSB) increased 
substantially during the 1990s and through 2004, but decreased slightly 
since 2004, and was estimated to be 105 million lb (47,627 mt) on 
January 1, 2006, just over the biomass threshold (\1/2\Bmsy) 
of 102 million lb (46,266 mt)). Spawning stock biomass (SSB) also 
increased during the 1990s through 2004 (to 72 million lb (32,659 mt) 
in 2004), before decreasing to 67 million lb (30,391 mt) in 2005. 
Recruitment since 1988 was estimated to have improved, generally, 
although the 2003 and 2005 year classes were estimated to have been 
well below the median (33 million fish) at 24.5 million fish and 14.5 
million fish, respectively.
    It has been recognized since 1995 that the summer flounder stock 
assessment model tends to underestimate F and overestimate stock 
biomass and recruitment in the most recent years of the analysis 
(typically for the previous 5 years), until those estimates stabilize 
as new data are added to the analysis. For example, the 2006 stock 
assessment update showed that the estimate for F2004 had 
increased from last year's estimate of 0.4 to 0.46; and that the 
estimate for F2005 was 0.53. This pattern is likely the 
result of an underestimation of the true catch, due to discards and/or 
unreported landings. The impact for management, given these persistent 
retrospective patterns, is that, although the summer flounder stock 
continues to increase, it is increasing at a lower rate than, and is 
currently at a smaller size than, previously forecast. Because the 
Magnuson-Stevens Act requires stocks to be rebuilt to a level that 
produces MSY, it was clear from the 2006 stock assessment update that 
additional rebuilding of these species is still required. For summer 
flounder, the rebuilding period ends December 31, 2009.
    The regulations state that the Council shall recommend, and NMFS 
shall implement, measures (including the TAL) necessary to ensure, with 
at least a 50-percent probability of success, that the applicable 
specified F will not be exceeded. This requirement is also consistent 
with a 2000 Federal Court Order (Natural Resources Defense Council v. 
Daley, Civil No. 1:99 CV 00221 (JLG)) regarding the setting of the 
summer flounder TAL. Through the course of the rebuilding period, NMFS 
has set TALs estimated to have at least a 50-percent probability of not 
exceeding Fmax.
    For 2007, the Council's Summer Flounder Monitoring Committee 
considered that a TAL of 19.9 million lb (9,026 mt) would meet the 50-
percent probability of success standard (based on the Southern Demersal 
Working Group 2006 update), but recommended a TAL (13.88 million lb 
(6,296 mt)) associated with an F of 0.185, i.e., a 33-percent reduction 
of the Fmax (0.276), in order to account for the 
retrospective pattern of F underestimation. In August 2006, the Council 
and the Board discussed at length the Southern Demersal Working Group 
2006 update, the TAL for 2007, and potential TALs for the remainder of 
the rebuilding period. The Council considered the following TAL 
options: (1) a 2007 TAL of 19.9 million lb (9,026 mt); (2) the Summer 
Flounder Monitoring Committee's recommendation of 13.88 million lb 
(6,296 mt) for 2007; (3) a 2007 TAL projected to result in rebuilding 
of the summer flounder stock by 2010 (7.69 million lb (3,489 mt)); (4) 
a 2007 TAL that would both allow for rebuilding by 2010 and account for 
the retrospective F pattern (5.22 million lb (2,368 mt)); (5) a 
constant TAL for 2007 through 2009 that would allow for rebuilding by 
2010 (10.04 million lb (4,554 mt)); and (6) a constant TAL for 2007 
through 2009 that would allow for rebuilding by 2010 and that corrects 
for the retrospective pattern of F underestimation (6.72 million lb 
(3,048 mt)). The Council focused discussion on a 2007 TAL of 19.9 
million lb (9,026 mt).
    During the August 2006 Council discussion of the feasibility of 
achieving the biomass target, given recent recruitment levels, NMFS 
offered to re-examine the biological reference point values based on 
the use of the most recent scientific information available and on use 
of a subset (rather than the full range) of recruitment input data. 
Projections were to be re-run based on the revised reference points, 
the current growth potential of the population, and the recent history 
of reproductive effort (recruitment), and the results were to be peer-
reviewed. NMFS encouraged the Council to recommend a TAL for 2007, and 
indicated that any new information resulting from the stock assessment 
re-examination and the peer review thereof, if appropriate, would be 
reflected in the proposed specifications. In the end, the Council 
adopted a 2007 TAL of 19.9 million lb (9,026 mt), with 3 percent of the 
TAL set aside for research. This TAL would represent a 16-percent 
decrease for 2007 from the 2006 TAL of 23.59 million lb (10,700 mt). 
After deducting the RSA, the TAL

[[Page 62975]]

would be divided into a commercial quota (60 percent) and a 
recreational harvest limit (40 percent). The Board delayed its vote 
until its October 22-26, 2006, meeting, to consider the updated 
analyses.
    NMFS's re-examination of the biological reference points, the peer 
review of this work, and subsequent analysis stemming from the peer 
review was completed in September 2006 and is documented in ``Summer 
Flounder Assessment and Biological Reference Point Update for 2006.'' 
This update is available at http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/nefsc/saw/2006FlukeReview/.
    The Peer Review Panel's (Panel's) review did not result in any 
change in the current stock status determinations of the summer 
flounder stock. It confirmed that overfishing occurred throughout the 
rebuilding period, and that F must be substantially lowered for 2007 
through 2009 to allow for rebuilding by 2010. The stock continues to be 
considered not overfished, but is still just slightly above the biomass 
threshold. Table 1 summarizes and compares findings from the Southern 
Demersal Working Group 2006 Update and the recent peer reviewed 
assessment and biological reference point update.

  Table 1. Comparison of the findings of the Southern Demersal Working Group 2006 Update) and the Peer Reviewed
                        Summer Flounder assessment and Biological Reference Point Update)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Factor                       2006 Assessment (June 2006)           Update (September 2006)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fmax                                      0.276                               0.280
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Frebuild                                  0.099                               0.15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F2005                                     0.528                               0.407
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overfishing                               Yes                                 Yes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          ..................................  ..................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
R                                         33.11 million fish (median)         37 million fish (mean)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          ..................................  ..................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bmsyproxy                                 TSB=204 million lb (92,645 mt)      TSB (age 1 + fish) = 215 million
                                                                               lb (97,430 mt)
                                                                              SSB=197 million lb (89,411 mt)*
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Biomass threshold                         \1/2\TSB=102 million lb (46,323     \1/2\SSB=98.5 million lb (44,706
                                           mt)                                 mt)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SSB2005                                   67 million lb (30,600 mt)           105 million lb (47,498 mt)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TSB2005                                   105 million lb (47,800 mt) (age 0+  113 million lb (51,317 mt) (age 1+
                                           fish)                               fish)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overfished                                No (52% of Bmsy)                    No (53% of Bmsy)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          ..................................  ..................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSY                                       42 million lb (19,072 mt)           47 million lb (21,444 mt)
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Panel suggested use of SSB as Bmsy proxy in the future, but provided TSB information for comparison.

    The Panel recommended several adjustments in the assessment. The 
most important of these are that the stock condition be assessed using 
SSB rather than TSB, and several changes in how the weight of fish not 
yet Age 1 is used in the stock assessment model. With respect to the 
Southern Demersal Working Group 2006 Update, the recently updated 
analysis (which incorporated the Panel recommendations) lowered the 
best estimate of Bmsy, raised Fmax slightly, 
raised MSY, and raised the SSB estimates and lowered the F estimates 
for 2000-2005. The annual F projected to allow for rebuilding to 
SSBmax by 2010 (Frebuild) is currently estimated 
to be 0.15. Should an F of 0.15 in the 2007 fishing year prove to be 
inconsistent with allowing the stock to rebuild by 2010, based on the 
results of the annual summer flounder stock assessment update in June 
2007, NMFS would adjust the target F for 2008. Similar adjustment for 
the 2009 target F would occur based on the June 2008 stock assessment 
update, if necessary. Fishing at F=0.15 starting in 2007 is also 
anticipated to rebuild the stock to within 1 percent of the Bmsy 
proxy currently in the FMP (a TSB of 204 million lb (92,645 mt)) by 
2010. The Panel acknowledged the retrospective pattern of F 
underestimation (by 34 percent), biomass overestimation (by 12 
percent), and recruitment overestimation (by 4 percent). The Panel made 
no recommendation on how to adjust the analysis for this pattern, but 
noted that it should be taken into account when setting management 
targets.
    At the October 10-12, 2006, Council meeting, following a 
presentation of the Panel's findings, the Council voted to include a 
provision to amend the summer flounder biomass target, based on the 
updated, best available scientific information, in Amendment 14 to the 
FMP, which is currently under Council development.
    Projections indicate that fishing at a constant Fmax 
level of 0.28 would result in not achieving the biomass target until 
after 2022. As indicated above, commensurate with the objectives of the 
FMP, reduced TALs will be needed for 2007 through 2009 to achieve the 
biomass target by the end of the 10-year rebuilding period for summer 
flounder. The best available scientific information indicates that a 
TAL of 14.156 million lb (6,421 mt) is expected to have at least a 50-
percent probability of achieving an F of 0.15 in 2007, if the TAL and 
assumed discard level in 2006 are not exceeded. It also will also 
ensure, with a much greater than 50-percent

[[Page 62976]]

probability of success, that Fmax will not be exceeded. The 
setting of an annual TAL greater than this amount would be contrary to 
the rebuilding requirements of the Magnuson-Stevens Act and objectives 
of the FMP.
    In consideration of the Panel's recommendation to take the 
retrospective pattern of F underestimation into account when setting 
management targets, and the requirement to rebuild the stock by the end 
of 2009, NMFS proposes a TAL that is associated with a 75-percent 
probability of achieving the F that is projected to allow the stock to 
rebuild to an SSB of 197 million lb (89,411 mt) and further assure to 
an even greater extent that Fmax will not be exceeded. The 
best available scientific information indicates that a TAL of 12.983 
million lb (5,889 mt) is expected to have at least a 75-percent 
probability of achieving an F of 0.15 in 2007, if the TAL and assumed 
discard level in 2006 are not exceeded, and is expected to allow for 
rebuilding of the stock to the target biomass by the end of 2009.
    For these reasons, NMFS proposes a summer flounder TAL of 12.983 
million lb (5,889 mt) for 2007. This TAL would represent a 45-percent 
decrease for 2007 from the 2006 TAL of 23.59 million lb (10,700 mt). 
The initial TAL would be allocated 60 percent (7,789,800 lb (3,533 mt)) 
to the commercial sector and 40 percent (5,193,200 lb (2,356 mt)) to 
the recreational sector, as specified in the FMP. For 2007, the Council 
and Board agreed to set aside 3 percent of the summer flounder TAL for 
research activities. After deducting the RSA (389,490 lb (177 mt)) from 
the TAL proportionally for the commercial and recreational sectors, as 
specified in the FMP, i.e., 60 percent and 40 percent, respectively, 
the commercial quota would be 7,556,106 lb (3,427 mt) and the 
recreational harvest limit would be 5,037,404 lb (2,285 mt). The 
commercial quota then would be allocated to the coastal states based 
upon percentage shares specified in the FMP.
    In addition, the Commission is expected to maintain the voluntary 
measures currently in place to reduce regulatory discards that occur as 
a result of landing limits established by the states. The Commission 
established a system whereby 15 percent of each state's quota would be 
voluntarily set aside each year to enable vessels to land an incidental 
catch allowance after the directed fishery has been closed. The intent 
of the incidental catch set-aside is to reduce discards by allowing 
fishermen to land summer flounder caught incidentally in other 
fisheries during the year, while also ensuring that the state's overall 
quota is not exceeded. These Commission set-asides are not included in 
these proposed specifications because these measures are not authorized 
by the FMP and NMFS does not have authority to implement them.
    Table 2 presents the proposed allocations by state, with and 
without the commercial portion of the RSA deduction. These state quota 
allocations are preliminary and are subject to reductions if there are 
overages of states quotas carried over from a previous fishing year 
(using the landings information and procedures described earlier). Any 
commercial quota adjustments to account for overages will be included 
in the final rule implementing these specifications.

                     Table 2. 2007 Proposed Initial Summer Flounder State Commercial Quotas.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                            Commercial Quota        Commercial Quota less RSA\1\
              State                  Percent Share   -----------------------------------------------------------
                                                            lb           kg\2\            lb           kg\2\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ME                                 0.04756            3,705          1,681          3,594          1,630
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NH                                 0.00046            36             16             35             16
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA                                 6.82046            531,300        240,998        515,361        233,768
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI                                 15.68298           1,221,673      554,151        1,185,023      537,526
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CT                                 2.25708            175,822        79,753         170,547        77,360
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY                                 7.64699            595,685        270,203        577,815        262,097
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NJ                                 16.72499           1,302,843      590,970        1,263,758      573,241
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DE                                 0.01779            1,386          629            1,344          610
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MD                                 2.03910            158,842        72,051         154,077        69,889
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VA                                 21.31676           1,660,533      753,218        1,610,717      730,621
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NC                                 27.44584           2,137,976      969,786        2,073,837      940,692
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL\3\                           100.00001          7,789,801      3,553,456      7,556,108      3,427,450
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Preliminary Research Set-Aside: 3 percent of the commercial quota, i.e., 233,694 lb (106 mt).
\2\ Kilograms are as converted from pounds and do not sum to the converted total due to rounding.
\3\ Rounding of quotas results in totals exceeding 100 percent.

Scup

    For scup, the stock is considered overfished when the 3-year 
average of scup SSB is less than the biomass threshold (2.77 kg/tow; 
the maximum Center spring survey 3-year average of SSB). Scup was last 
formally assessed in June 2002 at the 35\th\ Northeast Regional Stock 
Assessment Workshop (SAW). At that time, SARC 35 indicated that the 
species was no longer overfished, but that stock status with respect to 
overfishing could not be evaluated. An anomalously large spring SSB 
index value for 2002 resulted in the 3-year SSB average exceeding the 
biomass threshold for 2001 through 2003. However, more recent 
information

[[Page 62977]]

indicates that the scup SSB has decreased, and the 3-year SSB average 
values for 2004 (0.69 kg/tow) and 2005 (1.32 kg/tow) were under one-
quarter and one-half of the SSB threshold, respectively. Therefore, the 
stock is considered overfished.
    The proposed scup specifications for 2007 are based on an 
exploitation rate (21 percent) in the rebuilding schedule that was 
approved when scup was added to the FMP in 1996, prior to passage of 
the Sustainable Fisheries Act (SFA). Subsequently, to comply with the 
SFA amendments to the Magnuson-Stevens Act, the Council prepared 
Amendment 12 to the FMP, which proposed to maintain the existing 
rebuilding schedule for scup established by Amendment 8 to the FMP. On 
April 28, 1999, NMFS disapproved the proposed rebuilding plan for scup 
because the rebuilding schedule did not appear to be sufficiently risk-
averse. Later, however, NMFS advised the Council that use of the 
exploitation rate as a proxy for F would be acceptable and sufficiently 
risk-averse. NMFS considers the risks associated with the disapproved 
rebuilding plan as not applicable to the proposed specifications 
because they apply only for 1 fishing year and will be reviewed, and 
modified as appropriate, by the Council and NMFS annually. Furthermore, 
setting the scup specifications using an exploitation rate of 21 
percent is a more risk-averse approach to managing the resource than 
not setting any specifications until the Council submits, and NMFS 
approves, a revised rebuilding plan that complies with all Magnuson-
Stevens Act requirements. The Council is currently addressing this 
deficiency through Amendment 14 to the FMP, which is under development.
    Given the uncertainty associated with the spring survey, the 
Council and Board agreed with the Scup Monitoring Committee 
recommendation to set a TAC and TAL for 1 year only. A recommendation 
on the TAC for 2007 is complicated by the lack of information on 
discards and mortality estimates for fully recruited fish. In recent 
years, Council staff has used the 3-year SSB index average, the 
relative exploitation index (based on total landings and the spring 
survey SSB index), and assumptions about F to develop a TAL 
recommendation. That approach would indicate that a TAL of 31.12 
million lb (14,116 mt; nearly double that for 2006) would achieve the 
target exploitation rate of 21 percent in 2007. Council staff cautioned 
against use of the SSB index to derive a TAC for 2007, given the 
current overfished status for scup, poor 2004 and 2005 year classes, 
and the uncertainty associated with the survey indices, and instead 
suggested a TAL of 12 million lb (5,443 mt). This value, which is 26-
percent lower than the 2006 TAL, falls within the range of yields 
expected at about \1/2\Bmsy (11-16.5 million lb (4,990-7,484 
mt)) based on the long-term potential catch, and would constrain 
harvest to the level of actual landings in 2005. The Scup Monitoring 
Committee agreed with the Council staff recommendation. Estimated 
discards of 1.97 million lb (894 mt) were added to the TAL to derive a 
TAC of 17.97 million lb (8,151 mt).
    Reasoning that the scup winter trip limits have been effective in 
reducing scup discards and that the commercial fishery has not met its 
quota in the last few years, and concerned about potential shift in 
effort from summer flounder to scup, the Council and Board rejected the 
Monitoring Committee recommendation and instead recommended a TAL of 16 
million lb (7,258 mt), an amount at the high end of the range of yields 
expected at \1/2\Bmsy, and representing a less than 2-
percent decrease from 2006, with 3 percent of the TAL set aside for 
research.
    NMFS is concerned about implementing the scup TAL recommended by 
the Council and Board for the reasons identified by the Scup Monitoring 
Committee and because the spring survey index values have fallen below 
the biomass threshold, upon which long-term potential catch projections 
are based. Following NMFS's notification to the Council in August 2005 
that the scup stock had been designated as overfished, the Council 
initiated development of Amendment 14 to implement a plan to rebuild 
the scup fishery. Although the amendment is not scheduled to be 
effective until 2007 (affecting TAL specification for 2008 and beyond), 
the setting of a more conservative 2007 TAL would contribute to the 
rebuilding efforts for this overfished stock.
    For these reasons, NMFS proposes to implement a scup TAL of 12 
million lb (5,443 mt) for 2007. This TAL would represent a 26-percent 
decrease for 2007 from the 2006 TAL of 16.27 million lb (7,380 mt). The 
FMP specifies that the TAC associated with a given exploitation rate be 
allocated 78 percent to the commercial sector and 22 percent to the 
recreational sector. Scup discard estimates are deducted from both 
sectors' TACs to establish TALs for each sector, i.e., TAC minus 
discards equals TAL. The commercial TAC, discards, and TAL (commercial 
quota) are then allocated on a percentage basis to three quota periods, 
as specified in the FMP: Winter I (January-April)--45.11 percent; 
Summer (May-October)--38.95 percent; and Winter II (November-December)-
-15.94 percent. The commercial TAC would be 10,900,000 lb (4,943 mt) 
and the recreational TAC would be 3,070,000 lb (1,394 mt). After 
deducting estimated discards (1.72 million lb (780 mt) for the 
commercial sector and 250,000 lb (113 mt) for the recreational sector), 
the initial commercial quota would be 9,176,600 lb (4,163 mt) and the 
recreational harvest limit would be 2,823,400 lb (1,281 mt). The 
Council and Board agreed to set aside 3 percent of the TAL for research 
activities. Deducting this RSA (360,000 lb (163 mt)) would result in a 
commercial quota of 8,895,800 lb (4,035 mt) and a recreational harvest 
limit of 2,744,200 lb (1,245 mt).
    The proposed specifications would maintain the base scup possession 
limits, i.e., 30,000 lb (13,608 mt) for Winter I, to be reduced to 
1,000 lb (454 kg) when 80 percent of the quota is projected to be 
reached, and 2,000 lb (907 kg) for Winter II), as implemented for 2006.
    Table 3 presents the 2007 commercial allocation recommended by the 
Council, with and without the preliminary 280,800-lb (127-mt) RSA 
deduction. These 2007 allocations are preliminary and may be subject to 
downward adjustment due to 2005 overages in the final rule implementing 
these specifications, based on the procedures for calculating overages 
described earlier.

                                    Table 3. 2007 Proposed Initial TAC, Commercial Scup Quota, and Possession Limits.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                            Commercial Quota in    Commercial Quota    Possession Limits
             Period                   Percent        TAC in lb (mt)    Discards in lb (mt)        lb (mt)        less RSA in lb (mt)      in lb (kg)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter I                          45.11           4,915,456            775,892              4,139,564            4,012,895            30,000\1\
                                                  (2,230)              (352)                (1878)               (1820)               (13,608)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 62978]]

 
Summer                            38.95           4,244,226            669,940              3,574,286            3,464,914            n/a
                                                  (1,925)              (304)                (1,621)              (1,572)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter II                         15.94           1,736,918            274,168              1,462,750            1,417,991            2,000
                                                  (788)                (124)                (664)                (643)                (907)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total\2\                          100.00          10,896,600           1,720,000            9,176,600            8,895,800            ..................
                                                  (4,943)              (780)                (4,163)              (4,035)
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\The Winter I landing limit would drop to 1,000 lb (454 kg) upon attainment of 80 percent of the seasonal allocation.
\2\Totals subject to rounding error.
n/a-Not applicable

    The final rule to implement Framework 3 to the FMP (68 FR 62250, 
November 3, 2003) implemented a process, for years in which the full 
Winter I commercial scup quota is not harvested, to allow unused quota 
from the Winter I period to be rolled over to the quota for the Winter 
II period. As shown in Table 4, the proposed specifications would 
maintain the Winter II possession limit-to-rollover amount ratios 
(1,500 lb (680 kg) per 500,000 lb (227 mt) of unused Winter I period 
quota), as implemented for 2006.

Table 4. Potential Increase in Winter II Possession Limits Based on the Amount of Scup Rolled Over from Winter I
                                              to Winter II Period.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Initial Winter II Possession Limit      Rollover from Winter I   Increase in Initial      Final Winter II
------------------------------------------       to Winter II        Winter II Possession     Possession Limit
                                          -------------------------         Limit           after Rollover from
                                                                   ----------------------- Winter I to Winter II
               lb                   kg           lb          mt                           ----------------------
                                                                         lb          kg       lb         kg
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907       0-499,999      0-227     0             0        2,000    907
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907       500,000-999,9  227-454   1,500         680      3,500    1,588
                                            99
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907       1,000,000-1,4  454-680   3,000         1,361    5,000    2,268
                                            99,999
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907       1,500,000-1,9  680-907   4,500         2,041    6,500    2,948
                                            99,999
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907       2,000,000-2,5  907-1,13  6,000         2,722    8,000    3,629
                                            00,000         4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Black Sea Bass

    Amendment 12 to the FMP indicated that the black sea bass stock, 
which was determined by SARC 27 to be overfished in 1998, could be 
rebuilt to the target biomass within a 10-year period, i.e., by 2010. 
The current target exploitation rate is based on the current estimate 
of Fmax, or 0.33 (25.6 percent). The northern stock of black sea bass 
was last assessed at the 43rd SAW in June 2006. The SARC 27 Panel did 
not consider the stock assessment to provide an adequate basis to 
evaluate stock status against the biological reference points, but did 
not recommend any other reference points to replace them.
    The most recent Center spring survey results indicate that the 
exploitable biomass of black sea bass decreased in 2005. The 2005 
biomass index, i.e., the 3-year average exploitable biomass for 2004 
through 2006, is estimated to be 0.804 kg/tow, below the threshold 
biomass value of 0.976 kg/tow. Based on these results, if the 
biological reference points in the FMP are applied, black sea bass once 
again would be determined to be overfished.
    The best available information on stock status indicates that stock 
size has increased in recent years. In addition, the 2005 year class 
may be above average. If protected, this year class should allow for 
additional stock rebuilding in 2006 and beyond. Given the lack of stock 
projections, it is difficult to predict what the actual biomass will be 
in 2007. Because the estimate of exploitable biomass is based on a 3-
year average, the actual estimate for 2007 will not be derived until 
the spring 2008 survey results are available; if it is 0.328 (equal to 
the average for 2004-2006), and assuming an exploitation rate of 21 
percent in 2003, the TAL associated with the target exploitation rate 
would be 4.68 million lb (2,123 mt). However, if the 2007 estimate is 
0.396 (equal to the average for 2003-2005), the TAL associated with the 
target exploitation rate would be 5.650 million lb (2,563 mt). Given 
the uncertainty in the survey estimates and the potential 
underestimation of the 2003 exploitation rate (21 percent), the 
Monitoring Committee agreed with the Council staff recommendation to 
set a 1-year TAL (for 2007) of 5 million lb (2,270 mt), noting that it 
would constrain the 2007 landings to the 2005 and 2006 levels.
    Reasoning that the TAL should be set at a level higher than 2005 
landings (to avoid discards and highgrading, to accommodate a potential 
shift in effort from the summer flounder fishery, and assuming that 
black sea bass availability may improve in 2007), but recognizing the 
need for a more conservative TAL than implemented for 2006, the Council 
and Board rejected the Monitoring Committee recommendation, and 
recommended instead a 6.5-million-lb (2,948-mt) TAL for 2007, with 3 
percent of the TAL set aside for research. This TAL would represent a 
19-percent decrease from 2006.
    NMFS has concerns regarding the Council and Board-recommended black

[[Page 62979]]

sea bass TAL, which is well above the range of TALs considered by the 
Monitoring Committee, for the reasons specified above. More 
conservative black sea bass TALs will likely need to be implemented 
during the remainder of the rebuilding period to allow for growth of 
exploitable biomass (reflected by the spring survey index). NMFS has 
encouraged the Council to manage this stock with caution and to 
initiate a process to develop replacement stock status determination 
criteria that are scientifically supportable and that can be relied on 
to measure the progress of rebuilding.
    For the reasons described above, NMFS proposes to implement a black 
sea bass TAL of 5 million lb (2,270 mt) for 2007. This TAL would 
represent a 37.5-percent decrease from the 2006 TAL of 8 million lb 
(3,629 mt). The FMP specifies that the TAL associated with a given 
exploitation rate be allocated 49 percent to the commercial sector and 
51 percent to the recreational sector; therefore, the initial TAL would 
be allocated 2.45 million lb (1,111 mt) to the commercial sector and 
2.55 million lb (1,157 mt) to the recreational sector. The Council and 
Board also agreed to set aside 3 percent of the black sea bass TAL for 
research activities. After deducting the RSA (150,000 lb (68 mt)), the 
TAL would be divided into a commercial quota commercial quota of 
2,376,500 lb (1,078 mt) and a recreational harvest limit of 2,473,500 
lb (1,122 mt), as specified in the FMP.

Classification

    These proposed specifications are exempt from review under 
Executive Order 12866.
    An IRFA was prepared, as required by section 603 of the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (RFA). The IRFA describes the economic impact these 
proposed specifications, if adopted, would have on small entities. A 
description of the action, why it is being considered, and the legal 
basis for this action are contained in the preamble to this proposed 
rule. A copy of this analysis is available from NMFS (see ADDRESSES). A 
summary of the economic analysis follows.
    The economic analysis assessed the impacts of the various 
management alternatives. The no action alternative is defined as 
follows: (1) No proposed specifications for the 2007 summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass fisheries would be published; (2) the 
indefinite management measures (minimum mesh sizes, minimum sizes, 
possession limits, permit and reporting requirements, etc.) would 
remain unchanged; (3) there would be no quota set-aside allocated to 
research in 2007; (4) the existing gear restrictive areas would remain 
in place for 2007; and (5) there would be no specific cap on the 
allowable annual landings in these fisheries (i.e., there would be no 
quotas). Implementation of the no action alternative would be 
inconsistent with the goals and objectives of the FMP, its implementing 
regulations, and the Magnuson-Stevens Act. In addition, the no action 
alternative would substantially complicate the approved management 
program for these fisheries, and would very likely result in 
overfishing of the resources. Therefore, the no action alternative is 
not considered to be a reasonable alternative to the preferred action.
    The Council prepared economic analyses for Alternatives 1 through 
3. Alternative 1 consists of the harvest limits proposed by the Council 
for summer flounder, and the Council and Board for scup and black sea 
bass. Alternative 2 consists of the most restrictive quotas (i.e., 
lowest landings) considered by the Council and the Board for all of the 
species. Alternative 3 consists of the status quo quotas, which were 
the least restrictive quotas (i.e., highest landings) considered by the 
Council and Board for all three species. NMFS prepared a supplemental 
economic analysis for Alternatives 4 through 6. Although NMFS defined 
Alternative 4 as the no action alternative, no analysis was undertaken 
for the reasons described above, i.e., because it would likely result 
in overfishing of the resources. Alternative 5 consists of a summer 
flounder TAL of 14.156 million lb (6,421 mt, associated with a 50-
percent probability of not exceeding the F target) and the most 
restrictive quotas for scup and black sea bass. Alternative 6 consists 
of a summer flounder TAL of 12.983 million lb (5,889 mt, associated 
with a 75-percent probability of not exceeding the F target) and the 
most restrictive quotas for scup and black sea bass. For clarity, these 
proposed specifications are described in Alternative 6.
    Table 5 presents the 2007 initial TALs, RSA, commercial quotas 
adjusted for RSA, and preliminary recreational harvests for the 
fisheries under these three quota alternatives.

              Table 5. Comparison, in lb (mt), of the alternatives of quota combinations reviewed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                Preliminary
                                      Initial TAL         RSA        Preliminary Adjusted   Recreational Harvest
                                                                     Commercial Quota\1\           Limit
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 1 (Council's Preferred)
-----------------------------------
Summer Flounder                     19.9 million    567,092\2\      11.60 million          7.73 million
                                    (9,026)         (257)           (5,261)                (3,506)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                                16 million      480,000         11.93 million          3.59 million
                                    (7,257)         (218)           (5,411)                (1,628)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                      6.5 million     132,000\2\      3.12 million           3.25 million
                                    (2,948)         (60)            (1,415)                (1,474)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 2 (Most Restrictive)
-----------------------------------                -------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                     5.22 million    156,600         3.04 million           2.03 million
                                    (2,368)         (71)            (1,379)                (921)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                                12 million      360,000         8.9 million            2.74 million
                                    (5,442)         (163)           (4,037)                (1,243)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                      5 million       132,000\2\      2.39 million           2.48 million
                                    (2,268)         (60)            (1,084)                (1,125)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 62980]]

 
Quota Alternative 3 (Status Quo-Least Restrictive)
-----------------------------------                -------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                     23.59 million   567,062\2\      13.81 million          9.21 million
                                    (10,700)        (257)           (6,264)                (4,178)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                                16.27 million   488,100         12.13 million          3.65 million
                                    (7,380)         (221)           (5,502)                (1,656)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                      8 million       132,000\2\      3.86 million           4.01 million
                                    (3,629)         (60)            (1,751)                (1,819)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 4 (No Action - not analyzed)
-----------------------------------                -------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 5 (NMFS analysis)
-----------------------------------                -------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                     14.156 million  424,680         8.24 million           5.49 million
                                    (6,421)         (193)           (3,738)                (2,490)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                                12 million      360,000         8.9 million            2.74 million
                                    (5,443)         (163)           (4,037)                (1,243)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                      5 million       150,000         2.38 million           2.47 million
                                    (2,268)         (68)            (1,078)                (1,122)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 6 (NMFS analysis - Proposed Action)
-----------------------------------                -------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                     12.983          389,490         7.56 million           5.04 million
                                    (5,889)         (177)           (3,429)                (2,286)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                                12 million      360,000         8.9 million            2.74 million
                                    (5,443)         (163)           ( )                    (1,243)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                      5 million       150,000         2.38 million           2.47 million
                                    (2,268)         (68)            (1,078)                (1,122)
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Note that preliminary quotas are provisional and may change to account for overages of the 2006 quotas.
\2\ Actual RSA amount analyzed by Council staff (rather than 3 percent of TAL)
\3\ Metric tons are as converted from pounds and are subject to rounding error

    Table 6 presents the percent change associated with each of these 
commercial quota alternatives (adjusted for RSA) compared to the final 
adjusted quotas for 2006.

 Table 6. Percent change associated with 2007 adjusted commercial quota alternatives compared to 2006 commercial
                                                adjusted quotas.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Total Changes Including Overages and RSA
                                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      Quota           Quota            Quota
                                  Alternative 1   Alternative 2     Alternative         Quota          Quota
                                    (Council          (Most         3\*\ (Least     Alternative 5  Alternative 6
                                   Preferred)      Restrictive)     Restrictive)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aggregate Change                 -16%            -78%             + less than 1%   -41%            -46%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aggregate Change                 no change       -25%             + less than 2%   -25%            -25%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aggregate Change                 -19%            -38%             + less than 1%   -38%            -38%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\*\Denotes status quo management measures.

    All vessels that would be impacted by this proposed rulemaking are 
considered to be small entities; therefore, there would be no 
disproportionate impacts between large and small entities. The 
categories of small entities likely to be affected by this action 
include commercial and charter/party vessel owners holding an active 
Federal permit for summer flounder, scup, or black sea bass, as well as 
owners of vessels that fish for any of

[[Page 62981]]

these species in state waters. The Council estimates that the proposed 
2007 quotas could affect 2,242 vessels that held a Federal summer 
flounder, scup, and/or black sea bass permit in 2005. However, the more 
immediate impact of this rule will likely be felt by the 906 vessels 
that actively participated in these fisheries (i.e., landed these 
species) in 2005.
    The Council estimated the total revenues derived from all species 
landed by each vessel during calendar year 2005 to determine a vessel's 
dependence and revenue derived from a particular species. This estimate 
provided the base from which to compare the effects of the proposed 
quota changes from 2006 to 2007.
    The analysis of the harvest limits in Alternative 1 (the Council's 
preferred alternative) indicated that these harvest levels would result 
in revenue losses of less than 5 percent for 34 vessels and greater 
than or equal to 5 percent for 859 vessels. More specifically, vessels 
are projected to incur revenue reductions as follows: No change, 13 
vessels; 5-9 percent, 104 vessels; 10-19 percent, 755 vessels; 20 
percent or greater, 0 vessels. Most commercial vessels showing revenue 
reduction of greater than 5 percent are concentrated in MA, RI, NY, NJ, 
and NC. The Council also examined the level of ex-vessel revenues for 
the impacted vessel to assess further impacts. While the analysis 
presented above indicates that in relative terms a large number of 
vessels (859) are likely to experience revenue reductions of more than 
5 percent, dealer data show that a large proportion of those vessels 
(296 vessels, or 34 percent) had small gross sales (less than $1,000), 
thus indicating that the dependence on fishing is likely very small.
    The Council also analyzed changes in total gross revenue that would 
occur as a result of the quota alternatives. Alternative 1 would 
decrease total summer flounder and black sea bass revenues by 
approximately $3.72 million and $1.80 million, respectively, relative 
to expected revenues earned from the 2006 quotas. No changes in scup 
revenues are expected in 2007 relative to 2006 since the proposed scup 
quota under Alternative 1 is identical to quota in place in 2006.
    The overall reduction in ex-vessel gross revenue associated with 
the potential changes in quotas in 2007 versus 2006 is approximately 
$5.52 million (in 2005 dollars) under Alternative 1. Assuming that the 
decrease in total ex-vessel gross revenue associated with the proposed 
rule for each fishery is distributed equally among the vessels that 
landed those species in 2005 (the last full year of data availability), 
the average decrease in gross revenue per vessel associated with the 
preferred quota would be $4,960 for summer flounder and $3,197 for 
black sea bass. The total average gross revenue reduction for vessels 
that land both summer flounder and black sea bass would then be $8,157. 
No revenue reductions are expected for scup. The number of vessels 
landing summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass in 2005 was 750, 439, 
and 563, respectively.
    The predicted changes in ex-vessel gross revenues associated with 
the potential changes in quotas in 2007 versus 2006 assumed static 2005 
prices (summer flounder--$1.70/lb; scup--$0.75/lb; and black sea bass--
$2.54/lb). However, if prices for these species change as a consequence 
of changes in landings, then the associated revenue changes could be 
different than those estimated above, and could mitigate some of the 
revenue reductions associated with lower quantities of quota available 
under this alternative.
    The analysis of the harvest limits of Alternative 2 (i.e., the most 
restrictive harvest limits) indicated that all 906 vessels would incur 
revenue losses equal to or greater than 5 percent. More specifically, 
vessels are projected to incur revenue reductions as follows: 5-9 
percent, 0 vessels; 10-19 percent, 0 vessels; 20-29 percent, 24 
vessels; 30-39 percent, 180 vessels; 40-49 percent, 31 vessels; and 
greater or equal to 50 percent, 671 vessels. The majority of the 
revenue losses of 50 percent or higher are attributed to quota 
reductions associated with the summer flounder fishery. Further 
examination shows that 311 of the impacted vessels (34 percent) had 
gross sales of $1,000 or less and 491 of the impacted vessels (54 
percent) had gross sales of $10,000 or less, thus likely indicating 
that the dependence on these fisheries for some of these vessels is 
very small. As in Alternative 1, most commercial vessels showing 
revenue reduction are concentrated in MA, RI, NY, NJ, and NC.
    Alternative 2 was estimated to decrease total summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass revenues by approximately $18.28 million, 
$2.27 million and $3.64 million respectively, relative to expected 
revenues earned from the 2006 quotas. The overall reduction in ex-
vessel gross revenue associated with the potential changes in quotas in 
2007 versus 2006 is approximately $24.19 million (in 2005 dollars) 
under Alternative 2. Assuming that the decrease in total ex-vessel 
gross revenue associated with the proposed rule for each fishery is 
distributed equally among the vessels that landed those species in 2005 
(the last full year of data availability), the average decrease in 
gross revenue per vessel associated with the Alternative 2 quota would 
be $24,373 for summer flounder, $5,170 for scup and $6,465 for black 
sea bass. The total average gross revenue reduction for vessels that 
land summer flounder, scup and black sea bass would then be $36,008. 
The number of vessels landing summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass 
in 2005 was 750, 439, and 563, respectively.
    The predicted changes in ex-vessel gross revenues associated with 
the potential changes in quotas in 2007 versus 2006 assumed static 2005 
prices (summer flounder--$1.70/lb; scup--$0.75/lb; and black sea bass--
$2.54/lb). However, if prices for these species change as a consequence 
of changes in landings, then the associated revenue changes could be 
different than those estimated above, and could mitigate some of the 
revenue reductions associated with lower quantities of quota available 
under this alternative.
    The analysis of the harvest limits in Alternative 3 (i.e., the 
least restrictive harvest limits) indicated that these harvest levels 
would result in revenue increases for 488 vessels and losses of less 
than 5 percent for 418 vessels. As in the analysis for Alternative 1, 
it is likely that a large proportion of the impacted vessels are likely 
to have small gross sales (less than $1,000), thus indicating that the 
dependence on these fisheries is likely very small.
    Alternative 3 was estimated to increase total summer flounder, scup 
and black sea bass revenues by approximately $0.03 million, $0.15 
million and $0.08 million respectively, relative to expected revenues 
earned from the 2006 quotas (assuming the entire quotas are landed).
    The overall increase in ex-vessel gross revenue associated with the 
potential changes in quotas in 2007 versus 2006 is approximately $0.26 
million (in 2005 dollars) under Alternative 3. Assuming that the 
increase in total ex-vessel gross revenue associated with the proposed 
rule for each fishery is distributed equally among the vessels that 
landed those species in 2005 (the last full year of data availability), 
the average increase in gross revenue per vessel associated with the 
Alternative 3 quota would be $40 for summer flounder, $342 for scup and 
$142 for black sea bass. The total average gross revenue reduction for 
vessels that land all three species would then be $524. The number of 
vessels landing summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass in 2005 was 
750, 439, and 563, respectively.

[[Page 62982]]

    The predicted changes in ex-vessel gross revenues associated with 
the potential changes in quotas in 2007 versus 2006 assumed static 2005 
prices (summer flounder--$1.70/lb; scup--$0.75/lb; and black sea bass--
$2.54/lb). However, if prices for these species change as a consequence 
of changes in landings, then the associated revenue changes could be 
different than those estimated above, and could mitigate some of the 
revenue reductions associated with lower quantities of quota available 
under this alternative.
    The NMFS analysis of the harvest limits in Alternative 5 indicate 
that these harvest levels would result in revenue losses of less than 5 
percent for 548 vessels and greater than or equal to 5 percent for 369 
vessels (with a total of 917 active vessels for 2005). More 
specifically, vessels are projected to incur revenue reductions as 
follows: 5-9 percent, 86 vessels; 10-19 percent, 149 vessels; 20-29 
percent, 70 vessels; and 30-39 percent, 64 vessels. As in Alternative 
1, most commercial vessels showing revenue reduction are concentrated 
in MA, RI, NY, NJ, and NC.
    The overall decrease in gross revenue associated with the reduced 
quotas in 2007 compared to expected landings levels in 2006 is 
approximately $11,414,200 (in 2006 dollars) under Alternative 5. By 
species, Alternative 5 would decrease total summer flounder, scup and 
black sea bass revenues by $9.68 million, $0.51 million and $1.22 
million, respectively. If the decreases are assumed to be distributed 
equally among the vessels that landed those species in 2005 (the last 
full year of data availability), the average decrease in gross revenue 
per vessel associated with Alternative 5 would be $12,810 for summer 
flounder, $1,145 for scup and $2,125 for black sea bass. The averages 
are additive so for vessels that land all three species the average 
gross revenue reduction is estimated at $16,080. The number of vessels 
landing summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass in 2005 was 
determined by NMFS to be 756, 448, and 574, respectively.
    In the NMFS analysis, a price-quantity equation was used to predict 
how reductions in summer flounder landings affect ex-vessel prices. The 
average nominal ex-vessel price per pound for summer flounder was 
estimated to be $1.79 in 2006 (assuming the entire TAL will be landed) 
and was estimated to increase to $1.91 in 2007 under Alternative 5 in 
response to reduced landings levels. To compare projected summer 
flounder revenues under Alternative 5 to 2006 levels, the 2007 average 
ex-vessel price per pound ($1.91) was converted to its 2006 inflation 
adjusted value of $1.86. For scup and black sea bass, it was assumed 
that the price-quantity relationships will remain constant under 
Alternative 5. Although to account for the effect of rising seafood 
prices, inflation adjusted 2006 average ex-vessel prices per pound were 
calculated for both scup ($0.77) and black sea bass ($2.60) in the 
analysis.
    The NMFS analysis of the harvest limits in Alternative 6 indicated 
that these harvest levels would result in revenue losses of less than 5 
percent for 542 vessels and greater than or equal to 5 percent for 375 
vessels (with a total of 917 active vessels for 2005). More 
specifically, vessels are projected to incur revenue reductions as 
follows: 5-9 percent, 83 vessels; 10-19 percent, 145 vessels; 20-29 
percent, 64 vessels; 30-39 percent, 52 vessels; and 40-49 percent, 31 
vessels. As in Alternative 1, most commercial vessels showing revenue 
reduction are concentrated in MA, RI, NY, NJ, and NC.
    The overall decrease in gross revenue associated with the reduced 
quotas in 2007 compared to expected landings levels in 2006 is 
approximately $12,533,500 (in 2006 dollars) under Alternative 6. By 
species, Alternative 6 would decrease total summer flounder, scup and 
black sea bass revenues by $10.8 million, $0.51 million and $1.22 
million, respectively. If the decreases are assumed to be distributed 
equally among the vessels that landed those species in 2005 (the last 
full year of data availability), the average decrease in gross revenue 
per vessel associated with Alternative 6 would be $14,290 for summer 
flounder, $1,145 for scup and $2,125 for black sea bass. The averages 
are additive so for vessels that land all three species the average 
gross revenue reduction is estimated at $17,560. The number of vessels 
landing summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass in 2005 was 
determined by NMFS to be 756, 448, and 574, respectively.
    In the NMFS analysis, a price-quantity equation was used to predict 
how reductions in summer flounder landings affect ex-vessel prices. The 
average nominal ex-vessel price per pound for summer flounder was 
estimated to be $1.79 in 2006 (assuming the entire TAL will be landed) 
and was estimated to increase to $1.93 in 2007 under Alternative 6 in 
response to reduced landings levels. To compare projected summer 
flounder revenues under Alternative 6 to 2006 levels, the 2007 average 
ex-vessel price per pound ($1.93) was converted to its 2006 inflation 
adjusted value of $1.88. For scup and black sea bass, it was assumed 
that the price-quantity relationships will remain constant under 
Alternative 6. Although to account for the effect of rising seafood 
prices, inflation adjusted 2006 average ex-vessel prices per pound were 
calculated for both scup ($0.77) and black sea bass ($2.60) in the 
analysis.
    For the analysis of the alternative recreational harvest limits, 
the 2007 recreational harvest limits were compared with previous years 
through 2005, the most recent year with complete recreational data. 
Landings statistics from the last several years show that recreational 
summer flounder landings have generally exceeded the recreational 
harvest limits, ranging from a 5-percent overage in 1993 to a 122-
percent overage in 2000. In 2003, recreational landings were 11.64 
million lb (5,280 mt), 25 percent above the recreational harvest limit 
of 9.28 million lb (4,209 mt). In 2004, recreational landings were 10.8 
million lb (4,899 mt), 4 percent below the recreational harvest limit 
of 11.21 million lb (5,085 mt). In 2005, recreational landings were 
10.02 million lb (4,545 mt), 2 percent below the recreational harvest 
limit of 11.98 million lb (5,085 mt).
    The Alternative 1 summer flounder 2007 recreational harvest limit 
(adjusted for RSA) of 7.73 million lb (3,506 mt), would be a 17-percent 
decrease from the 2006 recreational harvest limit of 9.29 million lb 
(4,214 mt), and would represent a 23-percent decrease from 2005 
landings. The 2007 summer flounder Alternative 2 recreational harvest 
limit of 2.03 million lb (921 mt) would be 78 percent lower than the 
2006 recreational harvest limit, and would represent an 80-percent 
decrease from 2005 recreational landings. The 2007 summer flounder 
Alternative 3 (status quo) recreational harvest limit of 9.21 million 
lb (4,178 mt) would be a less than 1-percent decrease from the 2006 
recreational harvest limit (due to the preliminary summer flounder RSA 
for 2005) and would represent an 8-percent decrease from 2005 
recreational landings. The 2007 summer flounder Alternative 5 
recreational harvest limit of 5.49 million lb (2,490 mt) would be 41 
percent lower than the 2006 recreational harvest limit, and would 
represent a 45-percent decrease from 2005 recreational landings. The 
2007 summer flounder Alternative 6 recreational harvest limit of 5.04 
million lb (2,286 mt) would be 46 percent lower than the 2006 
recreational harvest limit, and would represent a 50-percent decrease 
from 2005 recreational landings.
    Scup recreational landings declined over 89 percent for the period 
1991 to

[[Page 62983]]

1998, then increased by 517 percent from 1998 to 2000. The number of 
fishing trips also declined over 73 percent from 1991 to 1998, and then 
increased by 127 percent from 1998 to 2000. The decrease in the 
recreational fishery in the 1990s occurred both with and without any 
recreational harvest limits, and it is perhaps a result of the stock 
being over-exploited and at a low biomass level during that period. In 
addition, it is possible that party/charter boats may have targeted 
other species that were relatively more abundant than scup (e.g., 
striped bass), thus accounting for the decrease in the number of 
fishing trips in this fishery in the 1990s. In 2003, recreational 
landings were 8.43 million lb (3,824 mt), 110 percent above the 
recreational harvest limit of 4.01 million lb (1,819 mt) and the 
highest for the 1991 through 2005 period. In 2004 and 2005, 
recreational landings were 4.41 million lb (2,000 mt) and 2.38 million 
lb (1,080 mt), 10 percent above, and 40 percent below, respectively, 
the recreational harvest limit of 4.01 million lb (1,819 mt) for 2004 
and 3.96 million lb (1,796 mt) for 2005.
    Under Alternative 1, the scup recreational harvest limit for 2007 
would be 3.59 million lb (1,628 mt)), 13.5 percent below the 2006 
recreational harvest limit of 4.15 million lb (1,882 mt), and 51 
percent above the 2005 recreational landings. The scup recreational 
harvest limit of 2.74 million lb (1,243 mt) for 2007 under Alternatives 
2, 5, and 6 would be 34 percent less than the 2006 recreational harvest 
limit, and 15 above 2005 recreational landings. The Alternative 3 scup 
recreational harvest limit of 3.65 million lb (1,656 mt) for 2007 would 
be a 12-percent decrease from the 2006 recreational harvest limit and 
would represent a 53-percent increase over 2005 recreational landings.
    Black sea bass recreational landings have shown a slight upward 
trend from 1991 through 1997, and increased substantially in 2002 to 
4.35 million lb (1,973 mt). In 2003, 2004, and 2005, recreational 
landings were 3.29 million lb (1,492 mt), 1.67 million lb (757 mt), and 
1.77 million lb (802 mt), respectively.
    Under Alternative 1, the black sea bass recreational harvest limit 
for 2007 would be 3.25 million lb (1,474 mt)), 19 percent below the 
2006 recreational harvest limit of 3.99 million lb (1,810 mt), and 82 
percent above the 2005 recreational landings. The black sea bass 
recreational harvest limit of 2.48 million lb (1,125 mt) for 2007 under 
Alternatives 2, 5, and 6 would be 38 percent less than the 2006 
recreational harvest limit, and 40 percent above 2005 recreational 
landings. The Alternative 3 black sea bass recreational harvest limit 
of 4.01 million lb (1,819 mt) for 2007 would be a less than 1-percent 
increase from the 2006 recreational harvest limit and would represent a 
127-percent increase over 2005 recreational landings.
    If Alternative 1, 2, 5, or 6 is implemented, more restrictive 
summer flounder management measures (i.e., lower possession limits, 
larger minimum size limits, and/or shorter open seasons) may be 
required to prevent anglers from exceeding the 2007 recreational 
harvest limit. If 2007 scup and black sea bass landings are similar to 
those for 2006, more restrictive limits (i.e., lower possession limits, 
greater minimum size limits, and/or shorter seasons) may not be 
necessary to prevent anglers from exceeding this recreational harvest 
limit under any of the alternatives.
    While it is likely that proposed management measures under 
Alternative 6 would restrict the recreational fishery for 2007, and 
that these measures may cause some decrease in recreational 
satisfaction, there is neither behavioral or demand data available to 
estimate how sensitive party/charter boat anglers might be to proposed 
fishing regulations. Currently, the market demand for this sector is 
relatively stable. Summer flounder recreational trips averaged 5.1 
million for the 1991 to 2005 period, ranging from 3.8 million in 1992 
to 6.1 million in 2001. For 2002 through 2005, summer flounder 
recreational fishing trips were estimated at 4.6 million, 5.6 million, 
5.1 million, and 5.8 million per year, respectively. Scup recreational 
trips have shown a slight upward trend from the early 1990s to the 
early 2000s, ranging from approximately 199,000 trips in 1997 to 
972,000 trips in 2003, with an average of approximately 454,000 trips 
per year for the 1991 through 2005 period. For 2004 and 2005, scup 
recreational fishing trips were estimated at approximately 568,000 and 
458,000, respectively. Black sea bass recreational fishing trips have 
averaged approximately 247,000 per year for the 1991 through 2005 
period, ranging from approximately 136,000 trips in 1999, to 311,000 
trips in 1997. In 2005, recreational trips for black sea bass numbered 
approximately 166,000, the third lowest value in the 1991 through 2005 
time series.
    It is unlikely that these measures would result in any substantive 
decreases in the demand for party/charter boat trips. It is likely that 
party/charter anglers would target other species when faced with 
potential reductions in the amount of summer flounder, scup, and black 
sea bass that they are allowed to catch. The Council intends to 
recommend specific measures to attain the 2007 summer flounder 
recreational harvest limit in December 2006, and will provide 
additional analysis of the measures upon submission of its 
recommendations in early 2007.
    In summary, the proposed specifications represent substantially 
lower 2007 TALs for summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass. The 
proposed specifications were chosen because they allow for the maximum 
level of commercial and recreational landings, while allowing the NMFS 
to meet its legal requirements under the Magnuson-Stevens Act and while 
achieving the objectives of the FMP. The summer flounder TAL was chosen 
to allow for rebuilding of the stock by 2010 and to acknowledge the 
pattern of fishing mortality rate underestimation. Due to the level of 
uncertainty in the scup and black sea bass stock assessments and to the 
recent stock indices, the scup and black sea bass TALs were selected as 
risk-averse management alternatives intended to constrain 2007 landings 
to recent (2005) levels. The proposed 2007 adjusted commercial quotas 
for summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass for the year 2007 are 46 
percent, 34 percent, and 38 percent lower, respectively, relative to 
the adjusted quotas for year 2006. The proposed recreational harvest 
limits (adjusted for RSA) would be 45-, 25-, and 38-percent lower than 
the adjusted recreational harvest limits for year 2006.
    The proposed commercial scup possession limits for Winter I (30,000 
lb (13.6 mt) per trip, to be reduced to 1,000 lb (454 kg) upon 
attainment of 80 percent of the Winter I quota) and Winter II (2,000 lb 
(907 kg) per trip) and the Winter II possession limit-to-rollover 
amount ratio were chosen as an appropriate balance between the economic 
concerns of the industry (i.e., landing enough scup to make the trip 
economically viable) and the need to ensure the equitable distribution 
of the quota over each period. The proposed Winter I possession limit 
specifically coordinates with the 30,000-lb (13.6-mt) landing limits 
per 2-week period recommended by the Commission (beginning in 2005) to 
be implemented by most states, while satisfying concerns about 
enforcement of possession limits. Continuation of these possession 
limits and ratios is not expected to result in changes to the economic 
or social aspects of the fishery relative to 2006.
    The commercial portion of the summer flounder RSA preliminary

[[Page 62984]]

allocation in the proposed specifications, if made available to the 
commercial fishery, could be worth as much as $397,280 dockside, based 
on a 2005 ex-vessel price of $1.70/lb (or $439,344 based on NMFS' 
inflation adjusted summer flounder price estimate of $1.88/lb). 
Assuming an equal reduction in fishing opportunity among all active 
vessels (i.e., the 750 vessels that landed summer flounder in 2005), 
this could result in a per-vessel potential revenue loss of 
approximately $530 (or $581 based on NMFS' 2006 summer flounder price 
and 2005 active vessel estimate). Changes in the summer flounder 
recreational harvest limit as a result of the RSA are not expected to 
be significant as the deduction of RSA from the TAL would result in a 
relatively marginal decrease in the recreational harvest limit from 5.2 
million lb (2,359 mt) to 5.0 million lb (2,268 mt). Because this is a 
marginal change, it is unlikely that the recreational possession, size, 
or seasonal limits would change as the result of the RSA allocation.
    The commercial scup RSA allocation, if made available to the 
commercial fishery, could be worth as much as $210,600 dockside, based 
on a 2005 ex-vessel price of $0.75/lb (or $216,216 based on NMFS' 
inflation adjusted scup price estimate of $0.77/lb). Assuming an equal 
reduction in fishing opportunity for all active commercial vessels 
(i.e., the 439 vessels that landed scup in 2005), this could result in 
a loss of potential revenue of approximately $480 per vessel (or $482 
based on NMFS' 2006 scup price and 2005 active vessel estimate). The 
deduction of RSA from the TAL results in a relatively marginal decrease 
in the recreational harvest limit from 2.64 million lb (1,197 mt) to 
2.56 million lb (1,162 mt). It is unlikely that scup recreational 
possession, size, or seasonal limits would change as the result of the 
RSA allocation.
    The commercial portion of the black sea bass RSA, if made available 
to the commercial fishery, could be worth as much as $186,690 dockside, 
based on a 2005 ex-vessel price of $2.54/lb (or $191,100 based on NMFS' 
inflation adjusted scup price estimate of $2.60/lb). Assuming an equal 
reduction in fishing opportunity for all active commercial vessels 
(i.e., the 563 vessels that caught black sea bass in 2005), this could 
result in a loss of approximately $332 per vessel (or $333 based on 
NMFS' 2006 black sea bass price and 2005 active vessel estimate). The 
deduction of RSA from the TAL would result in a relatively marginal 
decrease in recreational harvest from black sea bass recreational 
harvest limit from 2.55 million lb (1,157 mt) to 2.48 million lb (1,122 
mt). It is unlikely that the black sea bass possession, size, or 
seasonal limits would change as the result of this RSA allocation.
    Overall, long-term benefits are expected as a result of the RSA 
program. The results of these projects will provide needed information 
on high-priority fisheries management issues related to Mid-Atlantic 
fisheries management. If the total amount of quota set-aside is not 
awarded for any of the three fisheries, the unused set-aside amount 
will be restored to the appropriate fishery's TAL. It should also be 
noted that fish harvested under the RSAs would be sold, and the profits 
would be used to offset the costs of research. As such, total gross 
revenue to the industry would not decrease if the RSAs are utilized.
    There are no new reporting or recordkeeping requirements contained 
in any of the alternatives considered for this action.

    Dated: October 23, 2006.
Samuel D. Rauch III,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for RegulatoryPrograms, National Marine 
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 06-8932 Filed 10-24-06; 11:07 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-S