[Federal Register Volume 69, Number 37 (Wednesday, February 25, 2004)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Pages 8572-8574]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 04-4147]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 660

[Docket No. 031125290-4058-02; I.D. 111003D]
RIN 0648-AQ97


Fisheries Off West Coast States and in the Western Pacific; 
Coastal Pelagic Species Fisheries; Annual Specifications

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Final rule.

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SUMMARY: NMFS issues a regulation to implement the annual harvest 
guideline for Pacific sardine in the U.S. exclusive economic zone off 
the Pacific coast for the fishing season January 1, 2004, through 
December 31, 2004. This action adopts a harvest guideline and initial 
subarea allocations for Pacific sardine off the Pacific coast that have 
been calculated according to the regulations implementing the Coastal 
Pelagic Species (CPS) Fishery Management Plan (FMP).

DATES: Effective March 26, 2004.

ADDRESSES: The report Stock Assessment of Pacific Sardine with 
Management Recommendations for 2004 may be obtained from Rodney R. 
McInnis, Acting Regional Administrator, Southwest Region, NMFS, 501 W. 
Ocean Boulevard, Suite 4200, Long Beach, CA 90802. An environmental 
assessment/regulatory impact review/final regulatory flexibility 
analysis (FRFA) may be obtained at this same address.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Svein Fougner, Southwest Region, NMFS, 
562-980-4040.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The FMP, which was implemented by 
publication of the final rule in the Federal Register on December 15, 
1999 (64 FR 69888), divides management unit species into two 
categories: actively managed and monitored. Harvest guidelines for 
actively managed species (Pacific sardine and Pacific mackerel) are 
based on formulas applied to current biomass estimates. Biomass 
estimates are not calculated for species that are only monitored (jack 
mackerel, northern anchovy, and market squid).
    At a public meeting each year, the biomass for each actively 
managed species is reviewed by the Pacific Fishery Management Council's 
(Council) Coastal Pelagic Species Management Team (Team). The biomass, 
harvest guideline, and status of the fisheries are then reviewed at a 
public meeting of the Council's CPS Advisory Subpanel (Subpanel). This 
information is also reviewed by the Council's Scientific and 
Statistical Committee (SSC). The Council reviews reports from the Team, 
Subpanel, and SSC and after providing time for public comment, makes 
its recommendation to NMFS. The annual harvest guideline and season 
structure are published by NMFS in the Federal Register as soon as 
practicable before the beginning of the appropriate fishing season. The 
Pacific sardine season begins on January 1 and ends on December 31 of 
each year.
    The Team meeting took place at the Southwest Fisheries Science 
Center in La Jolla, CA, on October 14, 2003. A public meeting between 
the Team and the Subpanel was held at the same location that afternoon. 
The Council reviewed the report at its November meeting in Del Mar, CA, 
when it also heard comments from its advisory bodies and the public.
    Based on a biomass estimate of 1,090,587 metric tons (mt)(in U.S. 
and Mexican waters), using the FMP formula, the harvest guideline for 
Pacific sardine in U.S. waters for January 1, 2004, through December 
31, 2004, is 122,747 mt. The biomass estimate is slightly higher than 
last year's estimate; however, the difference between this year's 
biomass is not statistically significant from the biomass estimates of 
recent years.
    Under the FMP, the harvest guideline is allocated one-third for 
Subarea A, which is north of 39 00' N. lat. (Pt. Arena, 
CA) to the Canadian border, and two-thirds for Subarea B, which is 
south of 39 00' N. lat. to the Mexican border. Under 
this final rule, the northern allocation for 2004 would be 40,916 mt, 
and the southern allocation would be 81,831 mt. In 2003, the northern 
allocation was 36,969 mt, and the southern allocation was 73,939 mt.
    An incidental landing allowance of sardine in landings of other CPS 
would become effective if the harvest guideline is reached and the 
fishery closed. A landing allowance of sardine up to 45 percent by 
weight of any landing of CPS is authorized by the FMP, and this is the 
level set for 2004. An incidental allowance prevents fishermen from 
being cited for a violation when sardine occur in schools of other CPS, 
and it minimizes wasteful bycatch of sardine if sardine are 
inadvertently caught while fishing for other CPS. Sardine landed with 
other species also requires sorting at the processing plant, which adds 
to processing costs. Mixed species in the same load may damage smaller 
fish.
    The sardine population was estimated using a modified version of 
the integrated stock assessment model called Catch at Age Analysis of 
Sardine Two Area Model (CANSAR TAM). CANSAR-TAM is a forward-casting, 
age-structured analysis using fishery dependent and fishery independent 
data to obtain annual estimates of sardine abundance, year-class 
strength, and age-specific fishing mortality for 1983 through 2003. The 
modification of CANSAR-TAM was developed to account for the expansion 
of the Pacific sardine stock northward to include waters off the 
northwest Pacific coast. Information on the fishery and the stock 
assessment is found in the report Stock Assessment of Pacific Sardine 
with Management Recommendations for 2004 (see ADDRESSES).
    The formula in the FMP uses the following factors to determine the 
harvest guideline:
    1. The biomass of age one sardine and above. For 2004, this 
estimate is 1,090,587 mt.
    2. The cutoff. This is the biomass level below which no commercial 
fishery is allowed. The FMP established this level at 150,000 mt.
    3. The portion of the sardine biomass that is in U.S. waters. For 
2004, this estimate is 87 percent, based on the

[[Page 8573]]

average of larval distribution obtained from scientific cruises and on 
the distribution of the resource obtained from logbooks of fish-
spotters.
    4. The harvest fraction. This is the percentage of the
    biomass above 150,000 mt that may be harvested. The fraction used 
varies (5-15 percent) with current ocean temperatures. A higher 
fraction is used for warmer ocean temperatures, which favor the 
production of Pacific sardine, and a lower fraction is used for cooler 
temperatures. For 2004, the fraction was 15 percent based on three 
seasons of sea surface temperature at Scripps Pier, California.
    As indicated above, the harvest guideline for U.S. waters is 
allocated one-third (40,916 mt) to Subarea A and two-thirds (81,831 mt) 
to Subarea B.
    A proposed rule for the specification of the harvest guideline and 
initial allocations was published on December 3, 2003 (68 FR 67638). 
One comment was received on the proposed rule and urged that the 
harvest guideline be reduced 10 percent per year for an unspecified 
period, but it did not provide information to warrant such an action, 
and thus no changes have been made in the final rule.

Classification

    These specifications are issued under the authority of, and NMFS 
has determined that they are in accordance with, the Magnuson-Stevens 
Fishery Conservation and Management Act, the FMP, and the regulations 
implementing the FMP at 50 CFR part 660, subpart I.
    This final rule has been determined to be not significant for 
purposes of Executive Order 12866.
    NMFS prepared an Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (IRFA) 
that described the economic impact this rule, if implemented, would 
have on small entities. No comments were received on any aspect of the 
IRFA or the analysis of the economic impacts of the proposed rule. NMFS 
then prepared a FRFA for this final rule. The FRFA is available from 
NMFS (see ADDRESSES). A summary of the FRFA follows:
    A description of the action, why it is being considered, and the 
legal basis for this action are contained in the SUMMARY and in the 
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION of this rule. A harvest guideline is 
established by the FMP to limit harvests to levels that protect the 
resource while providing a source of revenue for the fishing industry 
and other benefits to society over the long term.
    The harvest formula in the FMP is conservative and a significantly 
higher harvest than that allowed by the FMP could be realized without a 
detrimental effect on the resource, at least in the short term; this 
could provide substantial economic benefits to the fishing industry. 
However, there are both biological and economic reasons to restrain 
harvests. First, there is uncertainty about the effect of expanded 
harvests in the northern subarea. This fishery takes larger fish that 
may play an important role in maintenance of resource productivity. 
Research into the relationship of the northern and southern components 
is necessary before allowing higher harvests. Specifically, the 
research will address the question of whether harvest of the larger 
fish in the north has a disproportionate impact on the stock compared 
to equivalent harvest in the south. Second, the harvest guideline 
derived by the current formula has been sufficient in recent years in 
satisfying existing markets; therefore, there would not likely be a 
significant economic benefit from a higher harvest guideline. The best 
information available on the economics of the CPS fishery indicates 
that landings and revenue have increased steadily since recovery of the 
resource began and could increase in 2004 if additional markets were 
developed. However, landings in 2003 are projected to be similar to the 
landings in 2001 and 2002, suggesting that markets are saturated. 
Therefore, there would not likely be a significant increase in harvests 
even if more fish were made available. That is, there is little 
opportunity to increase revenue in 2004.
    Implementing the 2003 harvest guideline and allocations (i.e., the 
no action alternative) would keep the fishery at 2003 levels. There 
would not be much difference between this alternative and the proposed 
action as the harvest guideline would be quite similar.
    Implementing the new harvest guideline for 2004 without allocating 
to the different subareas would set up a derby fishery without regard 
to the allocation procedures in the FMP. The fisheries in Subarea A and 
in Subarea B could harvest without restriction. There would be a 
possibility that the fishery in the northern subarea would harvest 
sardine at a level that would result in either a shift of fishery 
benefits from south to north or an early closure of the coastwide 
fishery. There would be increased revenue in the north at the expense 
of the southern fishery. However, premature closure would also result 
in substantial idle purse seine capacity in the southern subarea, where 
the fishery has traditionally been more active in the fall and winter.
    Setting a harvest guideline above that authorized by the FMP is 
conceivable if the biomass and the harvest guideline were low and 
recruitment high. The harvest guideline is based on greater than age 1 
plus sardine. If the biomass of sardine less than age 1 were known to 
be high, then some economic benefits would accrue to the fishing 
industry by allowing a harvest greater than that permitted by the 
formula in the FMP based on the premise that these fish are short-lived 
and should be harvested when available. If this situation occurred, 
economic benefits could be conferred on the fishing industry with the 
possibility of no negative biological impact. However, this approach 
faces two difficulties: (1) The higher the harvest is above that 
authorized by the FMP, the greater the potential for exacerbating a 
decline of the resource. The risk would be small at high biomass levels 
such as those of recent years, but as noted there is uncertainty, 
especially concerning the relationship between the northern and 
southern components of the stock. Further, there is no need for a 
higher harvest guideline at this time because, under the current 
approach, enough sardine has been available for harvest to satisfy 
existing market. (2) Such an approach (allowing higher harvests) would 
most likely be viewed favorably by industry if the biomass (and ensuing 
harvest guideline) were low and the fishery faced economic hardship 
from a lack of other fishing opportunities. In this situation, the 
potential for negative biological impacts is substantial. The 
uncertainty of the estimate of sardine less than age 1 is high. The 
estimates of biomass and/or recruitment could be high, but natural 
mortality is high, and how much biomass a zero age class will 
contribute to the biomass of the resource is uncertain. This increases 
the likelihood of negative biological impacts. In the final analysis, 
however, this alternative would have similar results as the proposed 
action. The proposed harvest guideline is at a level that allows 
maximum use by existing markets; therefore, there would not likely be 
significant benefits from a higher harvest guideline. If information on 
Pacific sardine became available that had not been previously 
considered indicating a risk of following the harvest formula in the 
FMP, a more conservative harvest guideline might be implemented to 
protect the resource. There is no such information at this time. The 
harvest formula in the FMP, however, sets a conservative harvest 
policy. Setting a harvest guideline lower than required by the FMP 
would not

[[Page 8574]]

likely bestow significant biological benefits at current biomass 
levels.
    In summary, there are no factors that would justify deviation from 
the harvest guideline formula and allocation approach of the FMP. The 
requirements of the FMP that specify a harvest guideline action based 
on scientific data and a formula in the FMP continue to be valid. 
Setting a harvest guideline less than the proposed harvest guideline 
could have significant economic impacts. A reasonable assumption is 
that the harvest guideline will be attained. At an ex-vessel price of 
$114/mt (2001-2002 average), this would yield revenue of $13.9 million. 
Every 10,000 mt reduction in landings would reduce revenue by $1.14 
million. Setting a harvest guideline above the level derived could 
generate increased landings (though that is unlikely with current 
market conditions) but at an unacceptable level of risk of economic 
dislocation (if northern fisheries expanded too quickly) and ecological 
difficulties in the future (if the stock is less resilient than thought 
or the northern component of the stock is more important than is now 
known).
    Approximately 100 vessels participate in the CPS fishery off the 
U.S. West Coast. All of these vessels would be considered small 
businesses under the Small Business Administration standards. 
Therefore, there would be no economic impacts resulting from 
disproportionality between small and large vessels under the proposed 
action. A limited entry fishery occurs south of 39 N. 
Lat. A total of 65 vessels are permitted to participate in the limited 
entry fishery. An open access fishery exists north of 39 
N. Lat. in which about 15 vessels participate. These are also small 
businesses. Vessels harvesting CPS for bait are also small businesses 
but are unregulated under the FMP.
    Fisheries for Pacific sardine occur from Monterey, CA, south 
throughout the year and off Oregon and Washington in summer. Since 
2000, most of the CPS fleet has obtained an average of 30 percent of 
its total revenue from Pacific sardine. This has occurred during a 
period in which there has been an increase in demand for market squid, 
as well as new markets for sardine that developed since 2000. The 
average annual revenue from Pacific sardine has been $9.1 million (2002 
dollars) during the last 3 years (2000 through 2002). This is the 
revenue the industry might expect on average given the amount of 
sardine available for harvest and market demand. As of October 14, 
2003, 65,000 mt had been landed. Based on historical landings, landings 
may reach 90,000 mt, which is below the harvest guideline. Known 
factors that have influenced the landings in 2003 is an outbreak of 
domoic acid in California, which makes Pacific sardine unmarketable, 
and the availability of market squid in the summer, which provides 
higher revenue to the fishing industry than sardine. If the harvest 
guideline is reached during the 2004 fishing season, there will be an 
increase of $3.7 million in ex-vessel revenue above that of the 2003 
fishing season. With a harvest guideline of 122,747 mt and an average 
ex-vessel price of $114.00 per ton, potential revenue could be $14.0 
million. The harvest guideline for the 2003 fishing season was 110,908 
mt; however, landings are expected to reach only 90,000 or 95,000 mt by 
December 31, 2003. Market demand has not supported increased harvests, 
for the reasons noted above. The proposed action will yield potentially 
higher revenue (about $3 million) from Pacific sardine than the current 
year if the full harvest guideline is taken and prices remain constant.
    Enforcement and administrative costs (primarily port sampling) 
remain unchanged because calls at ports of landing are designed not 
only to assess the status of Pacific sardine but all species harvested 
during the year by the CPS fleet.

    Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.

    Dated: February 20, 2004.
Rebecca Lent,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for Regulatory Programs, National Marine 
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 04-4147 Filed 2-24-04; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-S