[Federal Register Volume 68, Number 232 (Wednesday, December 3, 2003)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 67638-67640]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 03-30137]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 660

[Docket No. 031125290-3290-01; I.D. 111203D]
RIN 0648-AQ97


Fisheries Off West Coast States and in the Western Pacific; 
Coastal Pelagic Species Fisheries; Annual Specifications

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed rule; request for comments.

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SUMMARY: NMFS proposes a regulation to implement the annual harvest 
guideline for Pacific sardine in the U.S. exclusive economic zone off 
the Pacific coast for the fishing season January 1, 2004, through 
December 31, 2004. This harvest guideline has been calculated according 
to the regulations implementing the Coastal Pelagic Species (CPS) 
Fishery Management Plan (FMP) and establishes allowable harvest levels 
for Pacific sardine off the Pacific coast.

DATES: Comments must be received by December 17, 2003.

ADDRESSES: Send comments on the proposed rule to Rodney R. McInnis, 
Acting Administrator, Southwest Region, NMFS, 501 West Ocean Blvd., 
Suite 4200, Long Beach, CA 90802-4213. The report Stock Assessment of 
Pacific Sardine with Management Recommendations for 2004 may be 
obtained at this same address. An environmental assessment/regulatory 
impact review/initial regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA) for this 
proposed rule may be obtained at this same address.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Svein Fougner, Southwest Region, NMFS, 
562-980-4040.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The FMP, which was implemented by 
publication of the final rule in the Federal Register on December 15, 
1999 (64 FR 69888), divides management unit species into two 
categories: actively managed and monitored. Harvest guidelines for 
actively managed species (Pacific sardine and Pacific mackerel) are 
based on formulas applied to current biomass estimates. Biomass 
estimates are not calculated for species that are only monitored (jack 
mackerel, northern anchovy, and market squid).
    At a public meeting each year, the biomass for each actively 
managed species is reviewed by the Pacific Fishery Management Council's 
(Council) Coastal Pelagic Species Management Team (Team). The biomass, 
harvest guideline, and status of the fisheries are then reviewed at a 
public meeting of the Council's CPS Advisory Subpanel (Subpanel). This 
information is also reviewed by the Council's Scientific and 
Statistical Committee
    (SSC). The Council reviews reports from the Team, Subpanel, and 
SSC, and then, after providing time for public comment, makes its 
recommendation to NMFS. The annual harvest guideline and season 
structure are published by NMFS in the Federal Register as soon as 
practicable before the beginning of the appropriate fishing season. The 
Pacific sardine season begins on January 1 and ends on December 31 of 
each year.
    The Team meeting took place at the Southwest Fisheries Science 
Center in La Jolla, CA on October 14, 2003. A public meeting between 
the Team and the Subpanel was held at the same location that afternoon. 
The Council reviewed the report at its November meeting in Del Mar, CA 
and heard comments from its advisory bodies and the public.
    Public comments are requested on how the fishery might be conducted 
for the 2004 fishing season to achieve but not exceed the harvest 
guideline while minimizing impacts on the harvest of other CPS.
    In view of the above, the following would be implemented for the 
January 1 through December 31, 2004, fishing season.
    Based on a biomass estimate of 1,090,587 metric tons (mt)(in U.S. 
and Mexican waters), using the FMP formula, the harvest guideline for

[[Page 67639]]

Pacific sardine in U.S. waters for January 1, 2004, through December 
31, 2004, is 122,747 mt. The biomass estimate is slightly higher than 
last year's biomass estimate; however, the difference between this 
year's biomass is not statistically significant from the biomass 
estimates of recent years. Therefore, the impacts of the fishery on the 
stock will be approximately the same as in the year prior. Similarly, 
the impacts of the fishery on other components of the environment will 
be similar to those in 2003.
    Under the FMP, the harvest guideline is allocated one-third for 
Subarea A, which is north of 39[deg] 00' N. lat. (Pt. Arena, CA) to the 
Canadian border, and two-thirds for Subarea B, which is south of 
39[deg] 00' N. lat. to the Mexican border. Under this proposed rule, 
the northern allocation for 2004 would be 40,916 mt; the southern 
allocation would be 81,831 mt. In 2003, the northern allocation was 
36,969 mt and the southern allocation was 73,939 mt.
    Normally, an incidental landing allowance of sardine in landings of 
other CPS is set at the beginning of the fishing season. The incidental 
allowance would become effective if the harvest guideline is reached 
and the fishery closed. A landing allowance of sardine up to 45 percent 
by weight of any landing of CPS is authorized by the FMP. An incidental 
allowance prevents waste of sardine caught while fishing for other 
species and protects fishermen from being cited for a violation when 
sardine occur in catches of other species, while controlling total 
sardine harvest by reducing the potential to target sardine while 
claiming to be fishing for other species. Sardine landed with other 
species also requires sorting at the processing plant, which adds to 
processing costs. Mixed species in the same load may damage smaller 
fish. The sardine population was estimated using a modified version of 
the integrated stock assessment model called Catch at Age Analysis of 
Sardine Two Area Model (CANSAR TAM). CANSAR-TAM is a forward-casting, 
age-structured analysis using fishery dependent and fishery independent 
data to obtain annual estimates of sardine abundance, year-class 
strength, and age-specific fishing mortality for 1983 through 2003. The 
CANSAR-TAM was modified to account for the expansion of the Pacific 
sardine stock northward to include waters off the northwest Pacific 
coast. Information on the fishery and the stock assessment are found in 
the report Stock Assessment of Pacific Sardine with Management 
Recommendations for 2004 (see ADDRESSES).
    The formula in the FMP uses the following factors to determine the 
harvest guideline:
    1. The biomass of age one sardine and above. For 2004, this 
estimate is 1,090,587 mt.
    2. The cutoff. This is the biomass level below which no commercial 
fishery is allowed. The FMP established this level at 150,000 mt.
    3. The portion of the sardine biomass that is in U.S. waters. For 
2004, this estimate is 87 percent, based on the average of larval 
distribution obtained from scientific cruises and the distribution of 
the resource obtained from logbooks of fish-spotters.
    4. The harvest fraction. This is the percentage of the biomass 
above 150,000 mt that may be harvested. The fraction used varies (5-15 
percent) with current ocean temperatures. A higher fraction is used for 
warmer ocean temperatures, which favor the production of Pacific 
sardine, and a lower fraction is used for cooler temperatures. For 
2004, the fraction was 15 percent based on three seasons of sea surface 
temperature at Scripps Pier, California.
    As indicated above the harvest guideline for U.S. waters is 
allocated one-third (40,916 mt) to Subarea A, two-thirds (81,831 mt) to 
Subarea B.

Classification

    These proposed specifications are issued under the authority of, 
and are in accordance with, the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation 
and Management Act, the FMP, and 50 CFR part 660, subpart I (the 
regulations implementing the FMP).
    This proposed rule has been determined to be exempt for significant 
for purposes of Executive Order 12866.
    NMFS prepared an IRFA that describes the economic impact this 
proposed rule, if adopted, would have on small entities. Specifically, 
NMFS is requesting that the public provide comments on the range of 
alternatives considered by NMFS and offer any additional alternatives 
that NMFS should consider for the Pacific sardine fishery. The IRFA is 
available from NMFS (see ADDRESSES). A summary of the IRFA follows:
    A description of the action, why it is being considered, and the 
legal basis for this action are contained in the SUMMARY and in the 
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION of this proposed rule. A harvest guideline is 
established by the FMP to limit harvests to levels that protect the 
resource while providing a source of revenue for the fishing industry 
and other benefits to society over the long term.
    The harvest formula in the FMP is conservative and a significantly 
higher harvest than that allowed by the FMP could be realized without a 
detrimental effect on the resource, at least in the short term; this 
could provide substantial economic benefits to the fishing industry. 
However, there are both biological and economic reasons to restrain 
harvests. First, there is uncertainty about the effect of expanded 
harvests in the northern subarea; that fishery takes larger fish that 
may play an important role in maintenance of resource productivity. 
Research into the relationship of the northern and southern components 
is necessary before allowing higher harvests. Second, the harvest 
guideline derived by the current formula has provided sufficient 
resources in recent years to satisfy existing markets; therefore, there 
would not likely be a significant economic benefit from a higher 
harvest guideline. The best information available on the economics of 
the CPS fishery indicates that landings and revenue have increased 
steadily since recovery of the resource began and could increase in 
2004 if additional markets were developed. However, landings in 2003 
are projected to be similar to the landings in 2001 and 2002, 
suggesting that markets are saturated. Therefore, there would not 
likely be a significant increase in harvests even if more fish were 
made available. That is, there is little opportunity to increase 
revenue in 2004.
    Implementing the 2003 harvest guideline and allocations (i.e., the 
no action alternative) would keep the fishery at 2003 levels. There 
would not be much difference between this alternative and the proposed 
action as the harvest guideline would be quite similar.
    Implementing the new harvest guideline for 2004 without allocating 
to the different subareas would set up a derby fishery without regard 
to the allocation procedures in the FMP. The fisheries in Subarea A and 
in Subarea B could harvest without restriction. There would be a 
possibility that the fishery in the northern subarea would harvest 
sardine at a level that would result in either a shift of fishery 
benefits from south to north or an early closure of the coastwide 
fishery. There would be increased revenue in the north at the expense 
of the southern fishery. However, premature closure would also result 
in substantial idle purse seine capacity in the southern subarea, where 
the fishery has traditionally been more active in the fall and winter.
    Setting a harvest guideline above that authorized by the FMP is 
conceivable if

[[Page 67640]]

the biomass and the harvest guideline were low and recruitment high. 
The harvest guideline is based on greater than age 1 plus sardine. If 
the biomass of sardine less than age 1 were known to be high, then some 
economic benefits would accrue to the fishing industry by allowing a 
harvest greater than that permitted by the formula in the FMP based on 
the premise that these fish are short-lived and should be harvested 
when available. If this situation occurred, economic benefits could be 
conferred on the fishing industry with the possibility of no negative 
biological impact. However, this approach faces two difficulties: (1) 
The higher the harvest is above that authorized by the FMP, the greater 
the potential for exacerbating a decline of the resource. The risk 
would be small at high biomass levels such as those of recent years, 
but as noted there is uncertainty, especially concerning the 
relationship between the northern and southern components of the stock. 
Further, there is no need for a higher harvest guideline at this time 
because, under the current approach, enough sardine has been available 
for harvest to satisfy existing market. (2) Such an approach (allowing 
higher harvests) would most likely be viewed favorably by industry if 
the biomass (and ensuing harvest guideline) were low and the fishery 
faced economic hardship from a lack of other fishing opportunities. In 
this situation, the potential for negative biological impacts is 
substantial. The uncertainty of the estimate of sardine less than age 1 
is high. The estimates of biomass and/or recruitment could be high, but 
natural mortality is high, and how much biomass a zero age class will 
contribute to the biomass of the resource is uncertain. This increases 
the likelihood of negative biological impacts. In the final analysis, 
however, this alternative would have similar results as the proposed 
action. The proposed harvest guideline is at a level that allows 
maximum use by existing markets; therefore, there would not likely be 
significant benefits from a higher harvest guideline. If information on 
Pacific sardine became available that had not been previously 
considered indicating a risk of following the harvest formula in the 
FMP, a more conservative harvest guideline might be implemented to 
protect the resource. There is no such information at this time. The 
harvest formula in the FMP, however, sets a conservative harvest 
policy. Setting a harvest guideline lower than required by the FMP 
would not likely bestow significant biological benefits at current 
biomass levels.
    In summary, there are no factors that would justify deviation from 
the harvest guideline formula and allocation approach of the FMP. The 
requirements of the FMP that specify a harvest guideline action based 
on scientific data and a formula in the FMP continue to be valid. 
Setting a harvest guideline less than the proposed harvest guideline 
could have significant economic impacts. A reasonable assumption is 
that the harvest guideline will be attained. At an ex-vessel price of 
$114/mt (2001-2002 average), this would yield revenue of $13.9 million. 
Every 10,000 mt reduction in landings would reduce revenue by $1.14 
million. Setting a harvest guideline above the level derived could 
generate increased landings (though that is unlikely with current 
market conditions) but at an unacceptable level of risk of economic 
dislocation (if northern fisheries expanded too quickly) and ecological 
difficulties in the future (if the stock is less resilient than thought 
or the northern component of the stock is more important than is now 
known).
    This proposed rule does not duplicate overlap, or conflict with 
other Federal rules. There are no reporting, recordkeeping, or other 
compliance requirements in the proposed rule.
    Approximately 100 vessels participate in the CPS fishery off the 
U.S. West Coast. All of these vessels would be considered small 
businesses under the SBA standards. Therefore, there would be no 
economic impacts resulting from disproportionality between small and 
large vessels under the proposed action. A limited entry fishery occurs 
south of 39[deg] N. Lat. A total of 65 vessels are permitted to 
participate in the limited entry fishery. An open access fishery exists 
north of 39[deg] N. Lat. in which about 15 vessels participate. These 
are also small businesses. Vessels harvesting CPS for bait are also 
small businesses but are unregulated under the FMP.
    Fisheries for Pacific sardine occur from Monterey, CA, south 
throughout the year and off Oregon and Washington in Summer. Since 
2000, most of the CPS fleet has obtained an average of 30 percent of 
its total revenue from Pacific sardine. This has occurred during a 
period in which there has been an increase in demand for market squid, 
as well as new markets for sardine that developed since 2000. The 
average annual revenue from Pacific sardine has been $9.1 million (2002 
dollars) during the last 3 years (2000 through 2002). This is the 
revenue the industry might expect on average given the amount of 
sardine available for harvest and market demand. As of October 14, 
2003, 65,000 mt had been landed. Based on historical landings, landings 
may reach 90,000 mt, which is below the harvest guideline. Known 
factors that have influenced the landings in 2003 is an outbreak of 
domoic acid in California, which makes Pacific sardine unmarketable, 
and the availability of market squid in the summer, which provides 
higher revenue to the fishing industry than sardine. If the harvest 
guideline is reached during the 2004 fishing season, there will be an 
increase of $3.7 million in ex-vessel revenue above that of the 2003 
fishing season. With a harvest guideline of 122,747 mt and an average 
ex-vessel price of $114.00 per ton, potential revenue could be $14.0 
million. The harvest guideline for the 2003 fishing season was 110,908 
mt; however, landings are expected to reach only 90,000 or 95,000 mt by 
December 31, 2003. Market demand has not supported increased harvests, 
for the reasons noted above. The proposed action will yield potentially 
higher revenue (about $3 million) from Pacific sardine than the current 
year if the full harvest guideline is taken and prices remain constant.

    Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.

    Dated: November 26, 2003.
Rebecca Lent,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for Regulatory Programs, National Marine 
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 03-30137 Filed 12-2-03; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-S