[Federal Register Volume 68, Number 4 (Tuesday, January 7, 2003)]
[Notices]
[Pages 748-753]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 03-292]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[030102001-3001-01]


United States Climate Change Science Program

AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

ACTION: Notice of availability and request for public comment.

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SUMMARY: The United States Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is 
announcing the availability of a draft document ``Strategic Plan for 
the Climate Change Science Program.'' The complete draft strategic plan 
was posted on the CCSP web site at http://www.climatescience.gov for 
public comment on November 11, 2002. The CCSP is seeking public comment 
in order to receive feedback from the widest range of interested 
parties. This draft document is being issued for comment only and is 
not intended for interim use. The CCSP will review public comments 
received on the draft document. In response to those comments, 
suggested changes will be incorporated, where appropriate, and a final 
document will be issued for use.
    In your review, we ask you to provide a perspective on the content, 
implications, and challenges outlined in the plan as well as 
suggestions for any alternate approach you wish to have considered, and 
the types of climate and global change information required by policy 
makers and resource managers. We also ask that you comment on any 
inconsistencies within or across chapters, and omissions of important 
topics. For any shortcomings that you note in the draft, please propose 
specific remedies.
    In your comments, please consider the following issues: (1) 
Overview on the content, implications, and challenges outlined in the 
plan; (2) areas of agreement and disagreement, as appropriate; (3) 
suggestions for alternative approaches, if appropriate; (4) 
inconsistencies within or across chapters; (5) omissions of important 
topics; (6) specific remedies for identified shortcomings of the draft 
plan; (7) type of climate and global change information required by 
representative groups; (8) other comments not covered above. Please do 
not comment on grammar, spelling, or punctuation. Professional copy 
editing will correct deficiencies in these areas for the final draft.
    Please follow these instructions for preparing and submitting your 
review. Using the format guidance described below will facilitate our 
processing of reviewer comments and assure that your comments are 
appropriately considered. Please provide background information about 
yourself on the first page of your comments: your name(s), 
organization(s), area(s) of expertise, mailing address(es), telephone 
and fax numbers, and email address(es). Overview comments on the 
chapter should follow your background information and should be 
numbered. Comments that are specific to particular pages, paragraphs or 
lines of the chapter should follow your overview comments and should 
identify the page and line numbers to which they apply. Comments that 
refer to a table or figure should identify the table or figure number. 
In the case of tables, please also identify the row and column to which 
the comment refers. Order your comments sequentially by page and line 
number. At the end of each comment, please insert your name and 
affiliation. An example of the format is provided on the CCSP web site 
at: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/comments.htm.

DATES: Comments on this draft document should be submitted by January 
18, 2003. Comments received after that date will be considered to the 
extent practicable. All comments submitted will be posted on the CCSP 
web site for public review.

ADDRESSES: The Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program is 
available on the CCSP web site at: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/. A free single copy of the Plan will be 
available to interested parties until the supply is exhausted. Such 
copies may be requested by writing to the U.S. Climate Change Science 
Program, Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., Washington, DC 20006 
or submitting e-mail to [email protected].
    All comments should be sent electronically to 
[email protected] or to Ms. Sandy MacCracken, U.S. Climate 
Change Science Program, Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., 
Washington, DC 20006.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms. Sandy MacCracken, U.S. Climate 
Change Science Program, Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., 
Washington, DC 20006. (Phone: 202-223-6262, Fax: 202-223-3065, e-mail: 
[email protected]); or visit the CCSP Web site at http://www.climatescience.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Scientists recognized the existence of a 
natural ``greenhouse effect'' and the possibility of human-induced 
changes in the Earth's climate and environment as early as the 19th 
century and, over time, this possibility has become widely accepted. In 
the last decades of the 20th century, public debate about the 
contribution of human activities to observed climate change and 
potential future changes in climate, and about courses of action to 
manage risks to humans and the environment, has been active and 
frequently contentious. These debates cover a range of both science and 
policy issues, including the extent to which global temperatures have 
in fact changes; whether most of the observed overall change in 
temperature of the last 50 years is attributable to human activities 
(principally the burning of biomass and fossil fuels and changes in 
land cover); how much climate might change in the future; and

[[Page 749]]

whether proposed response strategies, such as reductions in emissions 
or efforts to enhance natural carbon sequestration processes, would 
produce economic or other effects more detrimental than the effects of 
climate change itself.
    Science-based information is required to inform public debate on 
the wide range of climate and global change issues necessary for 
effective public policy and stewardship of natural resources. 
Developing the needed information will require addressing a wide-
ranging set of fundamental science questions, significantly improving 
observations and data management, and implementing highly credible and 
transparent mechanism for conveying research results in ways that are 
useful for decisionmakers and the public.

1. The Issues for Science and Society

    Environmental systems on Earth are changing constantly. The climate 
system is highly variable, with conditions varying significantly over 
the span of seasons, years, decades, and longer timescales. 
Fluctuations in the amount of energy emitted by the Sun, slight 
deviations in the Earth's orbit, volcanic injections of gases and 
particles into the atmosphere, and natural variations in ocean 
temperatures and currents, all cause variability and changes in climate 
conditions.
    Against the backdrop of these natural forces, humans have become 
agents of environmental change, at least on timescales of decades to 
centuries, even as living standards for billions of people have 
improved tremendously. Emission of greenhouse gases and pollutants and 
extensive changes in the land surface (both tied to widespread 
development of modern living standards) have potential consequences for 
global and regional climate. They also influence air quality, the 
Earth's protective shield of stratospheric ozone, the distribution and 
abundance of water resources and many plant and animal species, and the 
ability of ecosystems to provide life-supporting goods and services.
    The challenge is that discerning whether human activities are 
causing observed climatic changes and impacts requires detecting a 
small, decade-by-decade trend against the backdrop of wide temperature 
changes that occur on shorter timescales (seasons to years). A sound 
base of observations, as well as a solid understanding of how the 
Earth's environmental systems respond to different natural and human 
forces, is essential to detecting and attributing climate change to any 
specific cause. Currently, measurements taken at the Earth's surface, 
in various layers of the atmosphere, in boreholes, in the oceans, and 
in other environmental systems such as the cryosphere (frozen regions) 
indicate that the climate is warming. Further, in Climate Change 
Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (NRC, 2001a), the National 
Research Council (NRC), the operational arm of the National Academy of 
Sciences (NAS), concluded that ``the changes observed over the last 
several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we 
cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a 
reflection of natural variability.'' The NRC report elaborates on this 
point:
    Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural 
variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the 
time histories of the various forcing agents (and particularly 
aerosols), a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in 
the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century 
cannot be unequivocally established. The fact that the magnitude of the 
observed warming is large in comparison to natural variability as 
simulated in climate models is suggestive of such a linkage, but it 
does not constitute proof of one because the model simulations could be 
deficient in natural variability on the decadal to century time scale. 
The warming that has been estimated to have occurred in response to the 
buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is somewhat greater than 
the observed warming. At least some of this excess warming has been 
offset by the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols, and in any case one 
should not necessarily expect an exact correspondence because of the 
presence of natural variability.
    Apparently contradicting the evidence of warming are 
inconsistencies in the observational record, particularly related to 
the differences between temperature trends measured at the surface and 
measurements taken from satellite observations of the lower- to mid-
troposphere, which show no significant warming trends in the last two 
decades of the 20th century. Reconciling these differences and 
improving observational capabilities remains an important challenge 
with significant potential implications for decisionmaking.
    But the issues extend beyond those of ``detection and attribution'' 
to projecting how climate and other related environmental conditions 
could change in the future. Confidence in such projections is tied to 
knowledge of basic climate processes and natural variability, the 
ability of climate models to represent accurately these processes, and 
the ability of models to represent interactions of natural processes 
and any human-induced changes in the climate system.
    Improving the capability to project future climate conditions would 
be of significant economic and social value. Consider, for example, the 
benefits of improved forecasts of the onset of the El Ni[ntilde]o-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is a large-scale climate oscillation 
in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes phase every few years. Its 
effects reverberate through the global climate system to affect 
precipitation and temperature in many regions of the world. Armed with 
a basic understanding of the processes involved, scientists intensified 
systematic observations and improved their models, and by the late 
1990s could successfully forecast some conditions months in advance. 
While much additional work is required to improve ENSO forecasts, some 
climatic features can now be accurately predicted, with significant 
societal benefits. In the United States, decisionmakers are able to 
better estimate energy requirements, prepare for storms, manage water 
resources, anticipate where damage recovery efforts will be required, 
and foresee other potential impacts. In countries in South America, 
Africa, and other regions of the world, resource planners and managers 
are applying model results to develop agricultural plans, anticipate 
potential food surpluses and shortages, and prepare for other impacts. 
Such as planning has already reduced suffering and saved crops that 
would have otherwise been lost to drought and other ENSO effects.
    Improving the ability to project long-term trends in climate and 
related conditions is important to understanding the effects of 
different types and amounts of natural and human forcing, such as that 
due to different levels of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. 
Therefore, anticipating how possible future forcing could affect the 
climate requires development of complex computer models that 
incorporate the many features of the climate system and their 
interactions. Such models have been under construction for decades, and 
require ongoing observations and research into basic processes to fuel 
their continued improvement. Already, large-scale features of climate 
can be simulated, but many significant uncertainties remain to be 
addressed. Current models project significantly different increases in 
the global average surface temperature, from approximately 1 [deg]C 
during the 21st century to more than 5 [deg]C during the

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same period. This range of uncertainty incorporates both different 
estimates of climate sensitivity (the increase in temperature that 
results from a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide 
(CO2)) and a wide range in projections of future greenhouse 
gas emissions. Reducing uncertainty in climate models will involve 
improving understanding of the role of clouds in different parts of the 
atmosphere; improving characterization of the circulation and 
interaction of energy in the atmosphere and oceans; improving 
understanding of the Earth's natural carbon cycle; developing more 
detailed representations of features of the feedbacks from the land 
surface; incorporating additional types of forcing agents (e.g., 
``black carbon''); and making progress on other fundamental challenges. 
Improved projections of climate changes on decadal or longer timescales 
are also important for many areas of planning and resource management 
where decisions made today have implications for decades to come. 
However, at this point, modeled projections of the future regional 
impacts of global climate change are often contradictory and are not 
sufficiently reliable tools for planning.
    Even if the scientific community were to develop a ``perfect'' 
model of the global climate, it would not be possible to predict the 
level and rate of future changes in climate resulting from human 
activities. This is because these activities are not predetermined, but 
rather depend on human choices, which will, in turn, affect future 
climate conditions. The activities in question-energy-related emissions 
of greenhouse gases; changing the surface of the land through clearing, 
conversion, and growth of different land covers; and the release of 
chemicals (both natural and human-made) that alter the productivity of 
the land and the oceans--all depend on a more basic set of human 
driving forces. These include population growth, living standards, 
characteristics of technology, and institutions (e.g., market 
conditions). While we cannot predict these conditions, we can use a 
different set of models to project the climatic and environmental 
consequences of different combinations of basic human driving forces. 
These models are useful for performing ``If * * *, then * * *'' 
scenario experiments that make it possible to begin to explore the 
potential implications of different technological and institutional 
conditions for future emissions, climate, and living standards.
    Improving our ability to project potential future variations and 
changes in climate and environmental conditions, subject to assumptions 
about natural and human forcing, could enable governments, businesses, 
and communities to reduce damages and seize opportunities to benefit 
from changing conditions by adapting infrastructure, activities, and 
plans. But realizing this potential will require sustained research and 
improved understanding of the interactions among climate, natural and 
managed environmental systems, and human activities. Scientific 
research needs to address a range of issues.
    The complexity of the Earth's environmental systems, the unique 
conditions that they provide for life, and the state of these systems, 
including potential impacts on society, make climate and global change 
among the most important issues for our generation, and perhaps for 
generations to come. Given what is at stake, the Nation and the 
international community need the best possible science to inform public 
debate and decisionmaking in government and the private sector.

2. The Research Program

    In February 2002, President George W. Bush announced the formation 
of a new management structure, the Climate Change Science Program 
(CCSP), to coordinate and provide direction to US research efforts in 
the areas of climate and global change. These efforts include the US 
Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which began as a Presidential 
initiative in 1989 and was codified by Congress in the Global Change 
Research Act of 1990 (Pub. L. 101-606), and the Climate Change Research 
Initiative (CCRI), which was announced by the President in June 2001 to 
reduce significant uncertainties in climate science, improve global 
climate observing systems, and develop resources to support policy- and 
decisionmaking. Departments and agencies of the US Government that 
participate in the CCSP include the Departments of Agriculture, 
Commerce (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the 
National Institute of Science and Technology), Defense, Energy, Health 
and Human Services, Interior (US Geological Survey), State, and 
Transportation; the Agency for International Development, the 
Environmental Protection Agency; the National Aeronautics and Space 
Administration; the National Science Foundation; and the Smithsonian 
Institution. The Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Council 
on Environmental Quality, and the Office of Management and Budget 
provide oversight on behalf of the Executive Office of the President.
    The CCRI provides a distinct focus to the overall research program. 
The focus is defined by a set of uncertainties about the global climate 
system that have been identified by policymakers and analyzed by the 
NRC (NRC, 2001a). Areas addressed in the NRC report include climate 
observations, aerosols, North American carbon sources and sinks, 
climate feedbacks and modeling, scenarios of human-induced forcing, and 
development of methodologies for risk management. The CCRI is described 
more completely in Part I of this draft strategic plan.
    The CCRI accelerates key areas of research that have been under 
development over the past thirteen years in the USGCRP. Over this 
period, the United States has made a large scientific investment--
totaling more than $20 billion in the areas of climate change and 
global change research. With these resources, research programs 
supported by the agencies that participate in the USGCRP, in 
collaboration with several other national and international science 
programs, have mounted extensive space-based, surface, and in situ (at 
fixed sites) systems for global observations and monitoring of climate 
and ecosystems variables; have documented and characterized several 
important aspects of the sources, sinks, abundances, and lifetimes of 
greenhouse gases; have begun to address the complex issues surrounding 
various aerosol species that may significantly influence climate; have 
advanced our understanding of global water and carbon cycles (but with 
major remaining uncertainties); and have developed several approaches 
to computer modeling of global climate. The program has been a 
comprehensive, interagency collaboration that has facilitated 
scientific discovery. Program results have revealed and addressed many 
of the complex interactions of climate and other environmental systems, 
and have started to lay the foundation for understanding the 
relationships between natural variability and human activities that may 
contribute to change. US researchers have developed fundamental 
insights into how the climate and Earth system functions: Insights that 
are incorporated into advanced models throughout the world. The USGCRP 
is described more completely in Part II of this draft strategic plan.
    CCSP's management will balance the CCRI's near-term focus on 
climate change with the USGCRP's breadth, creating a program that both 
accelerates development of answers to scientific

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aspects of key climate policy issues and support advances in knowledge 
of the physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence the 
Earth system. This breadth is required to continue improving our 
understanding of the complex interrelationships among a broad set of 
systems that regulate climate and the global environment, as described 
in NRC's seminal report, Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways 
for the Next Decade (NRC, 1999a). The Pathways report lays out a 
framework of research questions that has significantly influenced the 
development of this strategic plan. Other reports issued by several 
boards, committees, and panels of the NRC have advised the USGCRP on 
specific aspects of climate and global change research and have 
influenced specific components of its research strategy. Indeed, the 
program has benefited from extensive interaction with the NRC, which is 
responsible for evaluating the USCGRP periodically for scientific 
merit.
    By investigating a targeted yet comprehensive set of questions, the 
CCSP seeks to focus attention on key climate changes issues that are 
important for public debate and decisionmaking, while maintaining 
sufficient breadth to facilitate the discovery of the unexpected. 
Establishing a careful balance between focus and breadth is essential 
if scientists are to develop knowledge of the interactions between 
natural variability and potential human impacts on the Earth system. 
This is an important management issue for the program and is a 
prerequisite for making as effective and productive use as possible of 
the significant resources allocated to this purpose. Establishing this 
balance, and a rational sequencing of research priorities and 
potentials, will require input from both decisionmaking and the science 
community.

3. Guiding Principles for CCSP

    To fulfill its mission as the publicly sponsored research program 
addressing climate change issues for the United States, the CCSP must 
continuously adhere to three guiding principles that underpin the 
objectivity, integrity, and usefulness of its research and reporting:
    (i) The scientific analyses conducted by the CCSP are policy 
relevant but not policy driven. CCSP scientific analyses (including 
measurements, models, projections, and interpretations) are directed 
toward continually improving our understanding of climate, ecosystems, 
land use, technological changes, and their interactions. In developing 
projections of possible future conditions, the CCSP addresses questions 
in the form of ``If * * *, then * * *'' analyses. Policy and resource 
management decisions are the responsibility of government officials who 
must integrate many other considerations with available scientific 
information.
    (ii) CCSP analyses should specifically evaluate and report 
uncertainty. All of science, and all decisionmaking, involves 
uncertainty. Uncertainty need not be a basis for inaction; however, 
scientific uncertainty should be carefully described in CCSP reports as 
an aid to the public and decisionmakers.
    (iii) CCSP analyses, measurements, projections and interpretations 
should meet two goals: Scientific credibility and lucid public 
communication. Scientific communications by the CCSP must maintain a 
high standard of methods, reporting, uncertainty analysis, and peer 
review. CCSP public reports must be carefully developed to provide 
objective and useful summaries of findings.

4. The Research Strategy

    This draft strategic plan for the CCSP, incorporating both the 
USGCRP and the CCRI, is built around a carefully constructed set of 
questions and objectives for each of the major areas of the program. 
Primary research questions that focus on broad science issues are 
supported by more detailed questions and objectives that can be 
addressed in specific research initiatives and projects. For each major 
question addressed, the strategy includes a very brief description of 
the state of knowledge, subsidiary questions, descriptions of products 
and deliverables, information of activities and infrastructure needed 
to make progress, and the benefits or ``payoffs'' from research. For 
each major program area, linkages to important national and 
international research activities are also described.
    This plan should be considered a draft subject to substantial 
revision through public comment and independent review by the NAS.
    Part I of the plan describes the components of the CCRI as 
discussed above. These are organized into three broad programmatic 
areas: (1) Research focused on key climate change uncertainties; (2) 
Climate quality observations, monitoring, and data management; and (3) 
Resources for decision support.
    Part II of the plan describes major research questions about how 
the components of Earth's environmental system function, how the system 
may change in response to human and natural forcing, and what the 
implications of these changes may be for a variety of human activities 
and natural environments and resources. For each major research 
question, a state of knowledge, illustrative research questions, 
research needs, and a list of products and payoffs are described. The 
specific topics addressed and their corresponding major research 
questions are:

(1) Atmospheric Composition

    Question 1: What are the climate-relevant chemical and radiative 
properties, and spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused and 
naturally occurring aerosols?
    Question 2: What is the current quantitative skill for simulating 
the atmospheric budgets of the growing suite of chemically active 
greenhouse gases and their implications for the Earth's energy balance?
    Question 3: What are the effects of regional pollution on the 
global atmosphere and the effects of global climate and chemical change 
on regional air quality and atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems?
    Question 4: What are the time scale and other characteristics of 
the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining 
abundances of ozone-depleting gases and increasing abundances of 
greenhouse gases?
    Question 5: What ate the couplings among climate change, air 
pollution, and ozone layer depletion, which were once considered as 
separate issues?

(2) Climate Variability and Change

    Question 1: What is the sensitivity of climate change projections 
to feedbacks in the climate system?
    Question 2: To what extent can predictions of near-term climate 
fluctuations and projections of long-term climate change be improved, 
and what can be done to extend knowledge of the limits of 
predictability?
    Question 3: What is the likelihood of climate-induced changes that 
are significantly more abrupt than expected, such as the collapse of 
the thermohaline circulation or rapid melting of the major ice sheets?
    Question 4: Whether and how are the frequencies, intensities, and 
locations of extreme events, such as major droughts, floods, wildfires, 
heat waves, and hurricanes, altered by natural climate variations and 
human-induced climate changes?
    Question 5: How can interactions between producers and users of 
climate variability and change information be optimally structured to 
ensure essential

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information needed for formulating adaptive management strategies is 
identified and provided to decisionmakers and policymakers?

(3) The Global Water Cycle

    Question 1: To what extent does the water cycle vary and change 
with time, and what are the internal mechanisms and external forcing 
factors, including human activities, responsible for variability and 
change?
    Question 2: How do feedback processes control the interactions 
between the global water cycle and other parts of the climate system 
(e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how are these feedbacks changing over 
time?
    Question 3: What are the key uncertainties in seasonal to 
interannual predictions and long-term projections of water cycle 
variables, and what improvements are needed in global and regional 
models to reduce these uncertainties?
    Question 4: How do the water cycle and its variability affect the 
availability and quality of water supplied for human consumption, 
economic activity, agriculture, and natural ecosystems; and how do its 
interactions and variability affect sediment and nutrient transports, 
and the movement of toxic chemicals and other biogeochemical 
substances?
    Question 5: What are the consequences of global water cycle 
variability and change, at a range of temporal and spatial scales, for 
human societies and ecosystems? How can the results of global water 
cycle research be used to inform policy and water resource management 
decision processes?

(4) Land Use and Land Cover Change

    Question 1: What are the primary drivers of land use and land cover 
change?
    Question 2: What tools or methods are needed to allow for better 
characterization of historic and current land use and land cover 
characteristics and dynamics?
    Question 3: What advances are required to allow for the projection 
of land use and land cover patterns and characteristics 10-50 years 
into the future?
    Question 4: How can projections be made of potential land cover and 
land use change over the next 10-50 years for use in models of impacts 
on the environment, social and economic systems, and human health?
    Question 5: What are the combined effects of climate and land use 
and land cover change and what are the potential feedbacks?

(5) The Global Carbon Cycle

    Question 1: What are the magnitudes and distributions of North 
American carbon sources and sinks and what are the processes 
controlling their dynamics?
    Question 2: What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean 
carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales, and 
which processes control their dynamics?
    Question 3: What are the magnitudes and distributions of global 
terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks and are 
they changing over time?
    Question 4: What are the effects of past, present, and future land 
use change and resource management practices on carbon sources and 
sinks?
    Question 5: What will be the future atmospheric carbon dioxide and 
methane concentrations, and how will terrestrial and marine carbon 
sources and sinks change in the future?
    Question 6: How will the Earth system, and its different 
components, respond to various options being considered by society for 
managing carbon in the environment, and what scientific information is 
needed for evaluating these options?

(6) Ecosystems

    Question 1: What are the most important linkages and feedbacks 
between ecosystems and global change (especially climate), and what are 
their quantitative relationships?
    Question 2: What are the potential consequences of global change 
for ecosystems and the delivery of their goods and services?
    Question 3: What are the options for sustaining and improving 
ecosystem goods and services valued by societies, given projected 
global changes?

(7) Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

    Question 1: What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and 
significance of the primary human drivers of change in atmospheric 
composition and the climate system, changes in land use and land cover, 
and other changes in the global environment?
    Question 2: What are the current and potential future impacts of 
global environmental variability and change on human welfare, what 
factors influence the capacity of human societies to respond to change, 
and how can resilience be increased and vulnerability reduced?
    Question 3: How can the methods and capabilities for societal 
decisionmaking under conditions of complexity and uncertainty about 
global environmental variability and change be enhanced?
    Question 4: What are the potential human health effects of global 
environmental change, and what tools and climate and environmental 
information are needed to assess and address the cumulative risk to 
health from these effects?
    In addition, the final chapter in Part II is devoted to Grand 
challenges in modeling, observations, and information systems. 
Modeling, observations, and data and information dissemination are 
crosscutting, ``enabling'' activities and are tightly coupled to the 
seven research elements. These are needs that are particular to a given 
research area and must be planned and implemented in close association 
with the research that they support or draw on. However, they also need 
to be managed in a focused manner because they provide essential 
infrastructure that must serve multiple purposes within the CCSP-
enabling fundamental research, as well as supporting assessment and 
decisionmaking--and because they depend on the distributed assets of 
CCSP agencies, some of which were originally developed to serve other 
needs.
    Part III of the plan describes communication, cooperation, and 
management issues that cut across all areas of the program. The 
specific topics addressed are:

(1) Reporting and Outreach

Inventory of Existing Agency Activities
Reporting and Outreach for Decisionmakers
Reporting and Outreach for the Public
Outreach for K-12 Education

(2) International Research and Cooperation

Goals of International Cooperation in Climate Science
The International Framework
Bilateral Cooperation in Climate Change Research and Technology
Multilateral International Cooperation in Research and Observational 
Programs
Regional Cooperation In Global Change Research
U.S. Plans And Objectives For Future International Cooperation

(3) Program Management and Review

Scientific Guidance
Interagency Planning and Implementation
Program Integration

References

    NRC, 1999a. Committee on Global Change Research, National 
Research Council, Global

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Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade 
(Washington, DC: National Academy Press).
    NRC, 2001a. National Research Council, Committee on the Science 
of Climate Change, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key 
Questions (Washington, DC: National Academy Press).

James R. Mahoney,
Assistant Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and Director, U.S. 
Climate Change Science Program.
[FR Doc. 03-292 Filed 1-6-03; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-KB-M