[Federal Register Volume 67, Number 83 (Tuesday, April 30, 2002)]
[Notices]
[Pages 21208-21209]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 02-10565]


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 Notices
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  Federal Register / Vol. 67, No. 83 / Tuesday, April 30, 2002 / 
Notices  

[[Page 21208]]



DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Agricultural Research Service


Notice of Availability of a New Partially Validated Simulation 
Model of the Cotton Crop

AGENCY: Agricultural Research Service, USDA.

ACTION: Notice of availability and intent.

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SUMMARY: Over the last 30 years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 
(USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) has conducted a wide range 
of research on cotton which is an agriculturally important crop in the 
U.S. Part of this effort involved the development of research models 
which subsequently evolved into a series of ``production models'' 
designed to serve as decision aids to cotton producers. In 1996, ARS 
decided to develop a new ``second generation'' Cotton Production Model 
(CPM) that would retain the best features of the earlier versions in a 
new, more versatile, and more user friendly framework. This process was 
completed to the stage of beta-testing by 1999, when the need to 
redirect limited resources to other priorities caused ARS to decide not 
to complete the validation process. The model is now being released for 
further development. ARS believes that CPM, while only partially 
validated, has the potential to make useful contributions to American 
cotton producers when completed. For these reasons, ARS decided to make 
the model's source codes available for further development and 
commercialization to any researcher or company interested in cotton 
production, precision agriculture, or related technologies.

DATES: The CPM is available as of February 7, 2002.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Technology Transfer Point of Contact: 
Dr. Richard J. Brenner, USDA-ARS, Office of Technology Transfer, George 
Washington Carver Center, 5601 Sunnyside Avenue, Beltsville, Maryland 
20705-5131, Tel.: 301 504-6905, e-mail: 
[email protected].
    Validation Technical Point of Contact: Dr. Gretchen Sassenrath-Cole 
USDA-ARS, Application and Production Research Unit, PO Box 36, 
Stoneville, Mississippi, Tel.: 662-686-5289, e-mail: 
[email protected].
    Technical Point of Contact: Dr. V. R. Reddy, Plant Physiologist/
Research Leader, Alternate Crops and Systems Lab., Bldg 007, Rm 116, 
BARC-W, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Beltsville, Maryland 20705, Tel.: 301-
504-5806, e-mail: [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: A new process-based cotton model, CPM, has 
been developed to simulate the growth and development of upland cotton 
(Gossypium hirsutum L.) throughout the growing season with minimal data 
input. CPM predicts final cotton yield for any combination of soil, 
weather, cultivar, and sequence of management actions. The executable 
code, source code, and supporting documentation for the model are 
available on the webpage of the Office of Technology Transfer, USDA-ARS 
(http://ott.ars.usda.gov/). The personal computer system requirements 
to run CPM are minimal, requiring IBM-compatability, Windows 95+, 64K 
RAM, and 4Mb hard disk space.
    The model draws upon the latest scientific knowledge available, and 
is intended to be used with a wide variety of cotton types across the 
entire U.S. Cotton Belt. CPM is written in C++ using a new modular 
structure that allows flexibility and adaptability. This object-
oriented structure should allow modules to be incorporated into 
process-based models of other crop species (see Acock, B. and V. R. 
Reddy. 1977. Designing an object-oriented structure for crop models. 
Ecological Modeling 94: 33-44). In addition to being modular and 
generic, CPM has other advantages over earlier models. Compared to 
previous cotton models, CPM is more robust, more user-friendly, more 
easily maintained, and more easily updated with future advances in 
science. The algorithms that simulate crop growth are derived in part 
from the best of each of the previous models, and they incorporate new 
physiological information as well. A new feature of CPM is that it 
incorporates 2DSOIL, an excellent up-to-date soil and root process 
model (see Timlin, D. J., Y. Pachepsky, and B. Acock. 1996. A design 
for a modular, generic soil simulator to interface with plant models. 
Agronomy Journal 88:162-169). 2DSOIL tracks water movement through the 
soil-plant-atmosphere continuum with hourly time-steps. It also 
incorporates a new model of plant water relations that responds 
realistically to water stress. CPM has updated treatments of carbon and 
nitrogen stresses compared to previous models, and it is designed for 
easy addition of responses to phosphorus and potassium. Because the 
growth of each leaf, internode and fruit is simulated separately, CPM 
should be easily linked to pest or disease models.
    CPM requires fewer and simpler data inputs from users than do 
previous models. Required inputs at the start of each run include data 
on weather, soil, cultivar characteristics, and management actions. No 
prior knowledge of cotton growth is required and no soil or plant 
measurements are required during the season. Mid-season correction of 
simulated plant growth is unnecessary. Weather data are best obtained 
from a weather station near the field, though use of readily available 
county weather data produces acceptable results. Soils data from the 
database of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources 
Conservation Service (NRCS), generally are sufficient to run CPM. These 
data are maintained and updated by NRCS, and can be accessed if one 
knows the soil type in which the crop is grown. Data on management 
actions are entered by the user, and are similar to those of other 
modern models.
    In 1998, CPM underwent limited testing and revision using data from 
several locations across the U.S. Cotton Belt. In 1999, the evaluation 
was much more extensive, using data from about 20 locations across the 
Cotton Belt in a cooperative effort involving ARS scientists, 
University scientists, and Cooperative Extension Specialists and 
Agents. The testing utilized the most current cultivars and management 
practices, including genetically engineered cultivars and ultra-narrow 
row spacings. Evaluation testing was an independent process from model 
development and calibration (parameterization). In one test, the

[[Page 21209]]

model was calibrated using data obtained in 1997 for the variety DPL 
5415 RR in Starkville, Mississippi, on a Marietta soil. Calibration of 
the model involved determining cultivar-specific values of 11 
parameters to provide a best fit between model output and measured crop 
characteristics (e.g., plant height, number of nodes, stem weight, 
fruit count, fruit weight). The calibrated model accurately predicted 
plant growth from the same cultivar grown in Stoneville, Mississippi, 
on a Bosket loam in 1998. Notably, 1997 was a cool wet year, whereas 
1998 was a hot dry year. The model's success in simulating responses to 
these environmental and soils differences indicates its robustness and 
utility.
    CPM has the potential to be useful as a decision aid for cotton 
farmers and crop production consultants. If fully developed, it would 
be a valuable tool to optimize management inputs such as irrigation, 
fertilization, plant growth regulators, and defoliant application prior 
to harvest. In its current version, however, CPM has not yet been fully 
validated to be useful as a decision aid. The released version of CPM 
should be considered an advanced model suitable for research purposes. 
ARS does not endorse its use for any other purpose at this time. Of 
particular importance to a decision aid model is the user interface. 
The interface under which CPM has been developed and tested is one that 
was earlier developed for the soybean model, GLYCIM, and has been 
documented elsewhere (Acock, B., Pachepsky, Y. A., Mironenko, E. V., 
Whisler, F. D., and Reddy, V. R. 1999. GUICS: A Generic User Interface 
for On-Farm Crop Simulations. Agronomy Journal. 91:657-665). However, 
this interface is not part of the current release, and the user will 
need to develop or adapt one for his or her own needs.
    The CPM Development Team was an ad hoc group drawn from numerous 
ARS laboratories across the Cotton Belt. Dr. Basil Acock, ARS, 
Beltsville, Maryland, led the team that developed CPM to its present 
stage. Drs. Rick Olson and Yakov Pachepsky were the other central 
members of the development team. The other team members included, Drs. 
Eugene Marenenko, Avi Marani, Ron Sequeira, and Hal Lemmon. The CPM 
Validation Team was led by Dr. Gretchen F. Sassenrath-Cole, ARS, 
Stoneville, MS, with a very large team of cooperators.
    ARS is releasing the source code and documentation of CPM at this 
time, under the Authority: 35 U.S.C. 207, so that interested parties 
can continue to develop the model for their own needs and purposes. ARS 
does not foresee providing monetary or technical support for the 
efforts of others to refine, adapt, or use this model, and provides no 
warranty for its use for any purpose. ARS does not reserve any rights 
or interests in the work that may be performed by others to refine or 
adapt it. ARS does reserve the right to continue its own refinement of 
the current version of the model at a later date, should program needs 
require it.

Michael D. Ruff,
Assistant Administrator.
[FR Doc. 02-10565 Filed 4-29-02; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3410-03-P