[Federal Register Volume 67, Number 53 (Tuesday, March 19, 2002)]
[Notices]
[Pages 12549-12551]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 02-6547]


=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY


Office of Science Financial Assistance Program Notice 02-22; 
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Research

AGENCY: Department of Energy (DOE).

ACTION: Notice inviting grant applications.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: The Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) of 
the Office of Science (SC), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), hereby 
announces interest in receiving applications for the Integrated 
Assessment of Climate Change Research Program. This notice is a follow 
on to previous notices published in the Federal Register. The program 
funds research that contributes to integrated assessment of climate 
change, and in particular, research to develop and improve methods and 
tools that focus on specialized topics of importance to integrated 
assessments. The research program supports the Administration's Climate 
Change Research activities and the U.S. Global Change Research Program 
goals to understand, model, and assess the effects of increasing 
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The program supports 
research to evaluate the economic costs and predicted responses to 
options that would mitigate the long-term increase in carbon dioxide 
and other greenhouse gases.

DATES: Applicants are encouraged (but not required) to submit a brief 
preapplication for programmatic review. Early submission of 
preapplications is suggested to allow time for meaningful dialogue.
    The deadline for receipt of formal applications is 4:30 p.m., 
E.D.T., May 14, 2002, to be accepted for merit review and to permit 
timely consideration for award in Fiscal Year 2002 and early Fiscal 
Year 2003.

ADDRESSES: Preapplications, referencing Program Notice 02-22, should be 
sent E-mail to [email protected].
    Formal applications, referencing Program Notice 02-22, should be 
sent to: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Grants and 
Contracts Division, SC-64, 19901 Germantown Road, Germantown, MD 20874-
1290, ATTN: Program Notice 02-22. This address must also be used when 
submitting applications by U.S. Postal Service Express Mail or any 
other commercial overnight delivery service, or when hand-carried by 
the applicant.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. John Houghton, Environmental 
Sciences Division, SC-74, Office of Biological and Environmental 
Research, Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy, 19901 
Germantown Road, Germantown, MD 20874-1290, telephone: (301) 903-8288, 
E-mail: [email protected], fax: (301) 903-8519. The full 
text of Program Notice 02-22, is available via the World Wide Web using 
the following web site address: http://www.science.doe.gov/production/grants/grants.html.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: An integrated assessment of climate change 
is defined here as the analysis of the human (including economics), 
physical, and biological aspects of climate change from the cause, such 
as greenhouse gas emissions, through impacts, such as changes to 
unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, and altered growing conditions 
for crops. The primary

[[Page 12550]]

emphasis is to represent all three aspects in such a way that actions 
to mitigate climate change may be evaluated. Integrated assessments are 
commonly based on predictions using a computer model.
    A description of integrated assessment may be found in volume 3 of 
the report ``Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third 
Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001''. The reference is: Ferenc 
Toth, Mark Mwandosya, John Christiansen, Jae Edmonds, Brian Flannery, 
Carlos Gay-Garcia, Hoesung Lee, Klaus Meyer-Abich, Elena Nikitina, Atiq 
Rahman, Richard Richels, Ye Riqui, Arturo Villavicencio, Yoko Wake, and 
John Weyant, ``Decision-Making Frameworks,'' Chapter 10 in Climate 
Change 2001: Mitigation, Cambridge University Press, 2001, (http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm). A Special Issue of The Energy Journal 
entitled ``The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation'', 
1999, [ISSN 0195-6574] presents analyses from several integrated 
assessment models of predicted costs to meet various target emission 
scenarios. The web site for the Energy Modeling Forum (http://www.stanford.edu/group/EMF/home/index.htm) contains further background 
information.
    The policy community uses integrated assessment models to evaluate 
specific policy options. This notice solicits research intended to 
provide a sound scientific foundation for predicting and analyzing 
benefits and costs of climate change, and possible policy options to 
mitigate it, some of which are not measured monetarily. The research 
funded as a result of this solicitation will be judged in part on its 
potential to develop and improve methods and models needed to support 
policy development. Policy analysis itself will not be funded.
    The program will concentrate support on the topics described below. 
Applications that involve development of analytical models and computer 
codes will be judged partly on the basis of whether they include 
proposed tasks to document and make the models and model codes 
available to the community. The following is a list of topics that are 
high priority. Topics proposed by principal investigators that fall 
outside this list will need strong justification to be considered for 
funding. Research projects in these elements are intended to fill 
critical gaps in current integrated assessments.

A. Technology Innovation and Diffusion

    This is a primary focus of the Integrated Assessment of Climate 
Change Research Program. Assumptions regarding technology innovation 
and diffusion are some of the most important contributors to overall 
uncertainty in predicting future emissions of greenhouse gases. A key 
area of interest is research to improve the ability of the integrated 
assessment models to represent technological change as a function of 
variables that are determined by the model (``endogenizing 
technological change'') rather than postulated as static input to the 
model.
    One particular difficulty in modeling technological change is in 
representing the penetration of new technologies. Over the 21st 
century, the typical timeframe of the integrated assessment models, 
technologies need to be invented, innovated upon, and diffused to the 
sectors in which they are used. Several questions need to be addressed, 
such as: How rapidly do these technological changes take place? What 
influences the rates? If the model assigns a price for a new technology 
that is lower than competing technologies, how should the dynamic 
adoption of the technology be modeled? What can be learned from 
historical precedents that would lead to better understanding of the 
processes and therefore to better modeling?
    The rate and nature of technology diffusion from the more-developed 
nations to developing nations is not well understood. Predicting 
economic structural change in developing nations is also problematical. 
Much of the uncertainty in integrated assessment models comes from the 
difficulty in predicting the response of the energy sector and 
greenhouse gas emissions in developing nations to both regulation and 
technological innovations in more-developed nations. How can historical 
precedents be used to understand and model the future movement of 
technologies across national borders?
    This research will help provide tools to address other policy-
relevant questions such as the following, as they relate to greenhouse 
gas emissions:
    What effect would various policy options have on ``carbon 
leakage'', the movement of emissions of greenhouse gases away from 
nations with relatively regulated emissions to ones with relatively 
unregulated emissions?
    How can the impact of research and development on invention, 
innovation, and adoption be simulated and modeled quantitatively?
    How do innovation and/or diffusion relate to measurable parameters 
of research and development, such as public and private research and 
development, investments, or regulations?

B. Evaluation of Scenarios Used to Drive Integrated Assessment 
Models

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently published a 
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm#sprep). These scenarios describe various possible 
directions for future development and are used as input into the 
Integrated Assessment models. The scenarios include projections of 
economic growth, population dynamics, and technology development that 
vary by time and locale.
    This notice solicits research to evaluate the existing SRES 
scenarios. Some combinations of values, for instance high per capita 
income growth and high population growth, are less likely than other 
combinations. Research should investigate which combinations of values 
are important enough to be represented by a particular scenario. The 
research would investigate whether the scenarios selected by the SRES 
adequately represent the underlying uncertainty. Would it be beneficial 
to add scenarios or is it possible to reduce the number? Research into 
demography per se, such as population dynamics and predictions of age 
distribution, is not being solicited. The research proposed under this 
topic should rely primarily on existing demographic data and evaluate 
that data in the context of demographic scenarios used in integrated 
assessment.

Program Funding

    It is anticipated that up to $1,000,000 will be available for 
multiple awards to be made in Fiscal Year 2002 and early Fiscal Year 
2003 in the categories described above, contingent on the availability 
of appropriated funds. Applications may request project support up to 
three years, with out-year support contingent on the availability of 
funds, progress of the research and programmatic needs. Annual budgets 
are expected to range from $30,000 to $150,000 total costs. Funds for 
this research will come from the Integrated Assessment Research 
program.

Collaboration

    Applicants are encouraged to collaborate with researchers in other 
institutions, such as: universities, industry, non-profit 
organizations, federal laboratories and Federally

[[Page 12551]]

Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), including the DOE 
National Laboratories, where appropriate, and to include cost sharing 
and/or consortia wherever feasible. Additional information on 
collaboration is available in the Application Guide for the Office of 
Science Financial Assistance Program that is available via the World 
Wide Web at: http://www.science.doe.gov/production/grants/Colab.html.

Preapplications

    A brief preapplication is strongly encouraged (but not required) 
prior to submission of a full application. The preapplication should 
identify on the cover sheet the institution, Principal Investigator 
name, address, telephone, fax and E-mail address, title of the project, 
and proposed collaborators. The preapplication should consist of a one 
to two page narrative describing the research project objectives and 
methods of accomplishment. These will be reviewed relative to the scope 
and research needs of the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change 
Research Program. Please note that notification of a successful 
preapplication is not an indication that an award will be made in 
response to the formal application.

Merit Review

    Applications will be subjected to scientific merit review (peer 
review) and will be evaluated against the following evaluation criteria 
listed in descending order of importance as codified at 10 CFR 
605.10(d):
    1. Scientific and/or Technical Merit of the Project,
    2. Appropriateness of the Proposed Method or Approach,
    3. Competency of Applicant's Personnel and Adequacy of Proposed 
Resources,
    4. Reasonableness and Appropriateness of the Proposed Budget.
    The evaluation will include program policy factors, such as the 
relevance of the proposed research to the terms of the announcement and 
the agency's programmatic needs. Note, external peer reviewers are 
selected with regard to both their scientific expertise and the absence 
of conflict-of-interest issues. Non-federal reviewers may be used, and 
submission of an application constitutes agreement that this is 
acceptable to the investigator(s) and the submitting institution.
    Information about the development and submission of applications, 
eligibility, limitations, evaluation, selection process, and other 
policies and procedures may be found in 10 CFR part 605, and in the 
Application Guide for the Office of Science Financial Assistance 
Program. Electronic access to the Guide and required forms is made 
available via the World Wide Web at: http://www.science.doe.gov/production/grants/grants.html. DOE is under no obligation to pay for 
any costs associated with the preparation or submission of applications 
if an award is not made.
    The research project description must be 15 pages or less, 
exclusive of attachments and must contain an abstract or summary of the 
proposed research. All collaborators should be listed with the abstract 
or summary. On the grant face page, form DOE F 4650.2, in block 15, 
also provide the PI's phone number, fax number, and E-mail address. 
Attachments include curriculum vitae, a listing of all current and 
pending federal support and letters of intent when collaborations are 
part of the proposed research. Curriculum vitae should be submitted in 
a form similar to that of NIH or NSF (two to three pages), see for 
example: http://www.nsf.gov/bfa/cpo/gpg/fkit.htm#forms-9.
    Related Funding Opportunities: Investigators may wish to obtain 
information about the following related funding opportunities:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    Within the context of its Human Dimensions of Global Change 
Research Program, the Office of Global Programs of the National Oceanic 
and Atmospheric Administration will support research that identifies 
and analyzes how social and economic systems are currently influenced 
by fluctuations in climate, and how human behavior can be (or why it 
may not be) affected based on information about variability in the 
climate system. The program is particularly interested in learning how 
advanced climate information on seasonal to yearly time scales, as well 
as an improved understanding of current coping mechanisms, could be 
used for reducing vulnerability and providing for more efficient 
adjustment to these variations. Notice of this program is included in 
the Program Announcement for NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program, 
which is published each spring in the Federal Register. The deadline 
for proposals to be considered in Fiscal Year 2002, is expected to be 
in summer 2002. Information will also be available on our website: 
http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/econhd/index.htm. For further 
information, contact: Nancy Beller-Simms Office of Global Programs; 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; 1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 
1225; Silver Spring, MD 20910; telephone: (301) 427-2089, ext. 180; 
Internet: [email protected] or Caitlin Simpson; Office of 
Global Programs; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; 1100 
Wayne Ave., Suite 1225; Silver Spring, MD 20910; telephone: (301) 427-
2089, ext. 152; Internet: [email protected].

National Science Foundation (NSF)

    As in Fiscal Year 2001, NSF will support research and related 
activities associated with the dynamics of coupled natural and human 
systems through its Biocomplexity special competition. The 
Biocomplexity 2002 announcement can be accessed at http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2002/nsf02010/nsf02010.html. The deadline for submission of 
proposals for the Fiscal Year 2002, competition was January 24, 2002. 
NSF staff expect the competition to continue in future fiscal years, 
although deadlines may be earlier in the fiscal year and the focus may 
change somewhat. (The Fiscal Year 2003 deadline may be as early as 
October 2002.) Potential applicants should consult the NSF Web site for 
updates.
    The Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance Number for this program 
is 81.049, and the solicitation control number is ERFAP 10 CFR Part 
605.

    Issued in Washington, DC, March 11, 2002.
John Rodney Clark,
Associate Director of Science for Resource Management.
[FR Doc. 02-6547 Filed 3-18-02; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P