[Federal Register Volume 61, Number 231 (Friday, November 29, 1996)]
[Notices]
[Pages 60738-60740]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 96-30513]


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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Federal Highway Administration

[Docket No. 96-047-NO2]


Study of State Costs and Benefits Associated With Repeal of the 
National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL)

AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and 
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Department of Transportation 
(DOT).

ACTION: Final notice announcing NHTSA/FHWA plan to conduct a study of 
State costs and benefits associated with the NMSL repeal, as required 
by Section 347 of the National Highway System (NHS) Designation Act 
(Pub. L. 104-59).

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SUMMARY: This notice is being issued to announce NHTSA's and FHWA's 
plan to conduct the study (hereinafter referred to as the ``NHS Act 
study'') of the State costs and benefits associated with repeal of the 
National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL), as required by the National 
Highway System (NHS) Designation Act (Pub. L. 104-59). NHTSA and FHWA 
(hereinafter referred to as ``the agencies'') published a notice in the 
Federal Register (61 FR 31212) on June 19, 1996, inviting comments, 
suggestions, and recommendations from State highway and traffic safety 
officials, highway safety organizations, researchers, and others on the 
agencies' proposed strategy for conducting the NHS Act study. The 
proposed strategy, as described in the initial notice, included a draft 
study outline, the minimum requirements for specific data from the 
States that have raised their speed limits, and a proposed schedule for 
completing the NHS Act study in order to meet the September 30, 1997, 
deadline established by Section 347 of the Act. This notice summarizes 
comments from the States and others on the proposed NHS Act Study and 
outlines the agencies' plan to meet the legislative requirement, in 
view of the concerns noted by the States.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: In NHTSA, Delmas Johnson, National 
Center for Statistics and Analysis, Telephone 202/366-5382, Fax 202/
366-7078, Internet address is [email protected]. In FHWA, Suzanne 
Stack, Office of Highway Safety, Telephone 202/366-2620, Fax 202/366-
2249, Internet address is [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL), 
enacted by the Congress during the Arab oil embargo of 1973 to conserve 
fuel, was initially set at 55 miles per hour (MPH). By March 1974, all 
States were in compliance with the NMSL. The Congress later passed 
legislation to make the NMSL permanent and to require the States to 
certify that the NMSL was being enforced. Congress also passed 
legislation requiring that a study of the benefits of the NMSL be 
undertaken. The National Academy of Sciences' Transportation Research 
Board (TRB) conducted this study and in 1984, published its special 
report, 55: A Decade of Experience.1 The TRB study, while one of 
the most thorough and extensive examinations of this important safety 
issue, recognized the inherent difficulties associated with attempts to 
accurately estimate the safety, economic, and energy benefits of the 
NMSL. Even with these difficulties, the TRB study concluded that many 
lives and taxpayer dollars were saved each year with the NMSL. The TRB 
study also recognized several unresolved issues, including whether the 
control of the speed limit is a state or Federal responsibility.
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    \1\ 55: A Decade of Experience, TRB Special Report 204, National 
Research Council, Washington DC, 1984.
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    In 1987, Congress passed legislation granting the states the 
authority to raise the speed limit to no more than 65 MPH on the rural 
Interstate system and certain rural freeways. By 1988, forty states had 
raised limits on rural Interstates to 65 MPH, bringing approximately 90 
percent of the 34,000 rural Interstate mileage to 65 MPH. In 1995, the 
National Highway System Designation Act (hereinafter referred to as 
``the NHS Act'', Pub. L. 104-59) was passed, establishing the National 
Highway System and eliminating the Federal mandate for the NMSL. 
Section 347 of the NHS Act required the Secretary of Transportation to 
study the impact of actions to raise speed limits above 55/65 MPH, ``in 
cooperation with any State which raises any speed limit in such State 
to a level above the level permitted under section 154 of title 23, 
United States Code * * * '', due September 30, 1997.
    The agencies proposed a strategy for meeting the study 
requirements, as stated in Section 347 of the Act, in the initial 
Federal Register (61 FR 31212) notice, published on June 19, 1996. The 
proposed strategy emphasized cooperation between the agencies and the 
States that have increased their speed limits, as stated in the 
legislation, for preparation of the study, along with a proposed 
schedule for completing the NHS Act study. The agencies recognized in 
the initial notice that the proposed NHS Act study outline, while 
comprehensive in addressing the costs and benefits of increased speed 
limits, posed difficulties based on the proposed schedule, particularly 
in terms of data availability. The initial notice requested comments on 
the reasonableness of the proposed draft study outline, the feasibility 
of the proposed schedule, and the availability of state specific data.
    This notice summarizes the comments received addressing the issues 
raised in the initial notice and describes the agencies' plan to meet 
the legislative requirement in view of the concerns identified in the 
comments.

Summary of Comments

    A total of 39 official comments to the docket were received from 
State agencies, private citizens, National Motorists Association (NMA) 
members, and others. Nineteen (19) States were represented in the 
official docket comments. Eighteen (18) of the 19 States commenting to 
the docket have increased limits since the NMSL was repealed or are 
planning to do so. Many of the comments from the States included 
concerns regarding the complexity and/or comprehensiveness of the 
agencies' proposed study outline, often in terms of the burden that 
would be placed upon the States. Many of the

[[Page 60739]]

States commented regarding the unavailability of data and the apparent 
difficulty in meeting the proposed schedule. Comments from private 
citizens generally supported the repeal of the NMSL, with one 
exception. Several NMA members and officials commented, expressing 
views supporting the NMSL repeal and criticizing the proposed study 
outline. Comments were also received from the National Association of 
Governor's Highway Safety Representatives (NAGHSR), the Advocates for 
Highway and Auto Safety (AHAS), the American Trucking Association 
(ATA), and a consulting firm, JCW Consulting.
    Cooperation and participation from the States with increased speed 
limits is critical to conducting the NHS Act study, as described in 
Section 347 of the Act. The States commenting to the docket recognized 
this critical issue and generally commented in three specific areas: 
Study Methodology, Data Availability, and Scheduling.

1. Study Methodology

    While some of the States submitting comments to the docket 
indicated that the proposed approach was ``* * * solid'' or ``* * * 
reasonable'', most commented that the approach was too ambitious. The 
States also expressed concerns, however, that the approach was too 
broad, posed an additional burden, and would be difficult to accomplish 
due to the unavailability of data. NAGHSR commented that the proposed 
approach is reasonable ``* * * only if all states' data were available 
* * *'' AHAS commented that while the proposed approach was 
appropriate, ``. . . reliance on state analyses and failure to consider 
other . . . issues'' were important concerns.

2. Data Availability

    The issue of data availability was addressed to some extent in all 
of the comments received from the States, along with some of the 
comments from private citizens and JCW Consulting. All of the States 
submitting comments to the docket expressed concerns related to the 
unavailability of data to meet the proposed NHS Act study outline. 
Among the reasons cited for lack of available data were: specific data 
not presently collected by the states, e.g., speed monitoring, medical 
costs related to crash injuries; not possible to provide data in time 
to meet the proposed schedule; lack of resources; data currently 
collected inadequate for determining benefits and costs specifically 
related to increased speeds. Some States suggested that the agencies 
develop standards for estimating benefits and costs, particularly in 
the absence of specific state data collection efforts.

3. Scheduling

    The States commenting to the docket consistently voiced the concern 
that the proposed schedule was ambitious, unreasonable, impossible, or 
unrealistic. One State suggested extending the proposed schedule one 
year past the September 30, 1997, deadline to avoid creating a 
``second-rate report.'' Three of the 18 States commenting to the docket 
indicated that plans existed to study the impact of increased speed 
limits in their respective State. However, all three States indicated 
that results from such studies would not be available in time to submit 
to the agencies for inclusion in the NHS Act Study. A concern regarding 
the before and after time frame of one year, as specified in Section 
347 of the Act, was also expressed by several States and the ATA. ATA 
suggested that the agencies use a ten year baseline for conducting the 
study. Many of the States commented that one year of data after the 
increased limits became effective may not be adequate for analysis to 
determine impact. This issue is further complicated in that only nine 
States (Arizona, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, 
Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming) may have had increased speed 
limits in place for at least nine months of calendar year 1996. This 
would mean, at best, that only one calendar year of data for the time 
frame after the increased speed limit was in place would be available 
for these nine States. States with increased speed limits becoming 
effective later in 1996, therefore, would not have one full year of 
final data to forward to the agencies prior to the report due date of 
September 30, 1997.

Analytical Challenges

    Due to the concerns expressed by the States and others in the areas 
of study methodology, data availability, and scheduling, the agencies 
are faced with several major analytical challenges to conducting the 
NHS Act study. Several of the States specifically indicated that 
certain types of data, e.g., decreased travel time, increased fuel 
consumption, and increased or decreased medical costs, would not be 
available in time for inclusion in the report or was not presently 
being collected. Without this type of information from the States, it 
will be difficult for the agencies to address the entire range of 
benefits due to increased speed limits in the NHS Act study. The issue 
of data availability is further complicated in that many States are 
selectively increasing speed limits on certain road segments and/or 
roadway types, e.g., 4-lane roads, rather than systemwide, e.g., all 
Interstates. While the selective application of increased speed limits 
is indicative of the cautiousness on the part of many States in 
adopting higher limits, it further complicates the issue of data 
availability by necessitating the analysis of data by road segment. At 
the national level, determining the impact of increased speed limits on 
traffic fatalities will be limited to the latest available data from 
the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) for calendar 1996, focusing 
on the nine States that have had increased speed limits in place for 
most or all of 1996. Finally, determining the impact of increased speed 
limits related to the amount of vehicle miles traveled and the 
distribution of vehicle speeds on affected roadways will be limited at 
best to the preliminary information available to the agencies in the 
summer of 1997.
    The agencies' final plan for conducting the NHS Act study, in view 
of the States' concerns and the analytical challenges discussed above, 
is described in the following section.

NHS Act Study Data

    The initial Federal Register notice described several major 
categories of data the agencies needed, as a minimum, for addressing 
critical components of estimating the impacts of increasing speed 
limits. Based on the comments from the States and others in the area of 
data availability, the agencies plan to conduct the NHS Act study using 
the data described in the following table. This table represents a 
subset of the minimum data requirements included in the initial Federal 
Register notice.

[[Page 60740]]



                     NHS Act Study Data and Outline                     
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                                                         Performing     
           Purpose              Data description        organization    
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Background..................  Effective Dates of    NHTSA/FHWA and      
                               Change in Limits,     States.            
                               Roadway Types, New                       
                               Limit(s), Types of                       
                               Vehicles Covered.                        
Determining the Impact of     Fatalities--1996      NHTSA--national     
 Increased Speed Limits on     Fatal Accident        estimates and      
 Traffic Fatalities.           Reporting System      impact on limited  
                               (FARS).               number of States.  
Estimating Costs............  Economic Cost of      NHTSA--national     
                               Crashes--Before vs.   estimates.         
                               After Speed Limit                        
                               Changes, Costs of                        
                               Fatalities.                              
Determining Exposure........  Vehicle Miles         FHWA--VMT:          
                               Traveled and Speed    preliminary        
                               Distribution.         estimates, if      
                                                     available; Speed   
                                                     monitoring: from   
                                                     those States making
                                                     voluntary          
                                                     submissions.       
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    As discussed in Analytical Challenges, the agencies' ability to 
address the impacts of increased speed limits on injury and other 
crashes and estimating benefits in the NHS Act study will depend on 
what the States are able to provide within the study schedule. The 
agencies plan to use a methodology similar to that used in NHTSA's last 
Report to Congress on the Effects of the 65 mph Speed Limit Through 
1990 (DOT-HS-807-840, June 1992). This report illustrates the type of 
analysis of crash data that can be performed for estimating the effect 
of speed limit changes. In this report, a time series regression model 
was used to estimate the data, using annual data from 1975 through 1986 
as the baseline period, and 1987 through 1990 as the 65 mph period. 
Fatalities on rural interstate highways in the 38 states that increased 
their speed limits in 1987 were modeled as a function of fatalities on 
all other roads in these 38 states, and a dummy (0,1) variable 
representing the absence/presence of the 65 mph speed limit. This 
approach resulted in a model that fit the data well (i.e., 88 percent 
of the variation explained). In general, a longer time frame permits 
more stable estimates than simply comparing the year before vs. the 
year after, and thus, would be preferable for the current report.

Schedule for Conducting the NHS Act Study

    The agencies plan to conduct the NHS Act study within the following 
schedule in order to meet the deadline established by Section 347 of 
the Act.

                    Schedule for Conducting NHS Study                   
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             Date                              Milestone                
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[Insert date of publication    Publish final notice on NHS Act study    
 in the Federal Register].      plan and summary of comments received in
                                response to initial notice.             
April 1-May 30, 1997.........  Informally canvas States on the          
                                availability of any State-specific      
                                studies on the impact of increased speed
                                limits.                                 
June 30, 1997................  NHTSA/FHWA complete draft NHS Act study  
                                report including consolidation of       
                                individual State studies, as available. 
July 1997....................  Draft NHS study circulated for review    
                                within DOT (and specific States, as     
                                appropriate).                           
August 1997..................  Final NHS study completed and reviewed/  
                                approved by DOT.                        
September 30, 1997...........  Final NHS study sent to Congress.        
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The NHS Act study as outlined above will provide the agencies and 
Congress with a preliminary assessment of the impact of increased speed 
limits for a limited number of States. The agencies plan to continue 
informally to communicate with the States regarding the impact of 
increased speed limits, as more States have had the increased limits in 
effect for longer time periods.

    Issued: November 22, 1996.
Donald C. Bischoff,
Executive Director, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
Anthony R. Kane,
Executive Director, Federal Highway Administration.
[FR Doc. 96-30513 Filed 11-27-96; 8:45 am]
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