[Federal Register Volume 61, Number 40 (Wednesday, February 28, 1996)]
[Notices]
[Pages 7568-7569]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 96-4484]



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NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

Availability of Draft Branch Technical Position on the Use of 
Expert Elicitation in the High-Level Waste Program

AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

ACTION: Notice of Availability.

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SUMMARY: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is announcing the 
availability of the ``Draft Branch Technical Position (BTP) on the Use 
of Expert Elicitation in the High-Level Waste (HLW) Program.''

DATES: The comment period expires May 14, 1996.

ADDRESSES: Send comments to Secretary, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory 
Commission, Washington, D.C., 20555-0001. ATTENTION: Docketing and 
Services Branch. Hand deliver comments to 11545 Rockville Pike, 
Rockville, Maryland 20852-2738, between 7:45 a.m. and 4:15 p.m., on 
Federal workdays.
    A copy of the draft BTP is available for public inspection and/or 
copying at the NRC Public Document Room, 2120 L Street (Lower Level), 
NW., Washington, DC 20555-0001. Copies of the draft BTP may also be 
obtained by contacting Karen S. Vandervort, Mail Stop T-7F3, U.S. 
Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Telephone: (301) 415-7252.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Michael P. Lee, Performance Assessment 
and High-Level Waste Integration Branch, Division of Waste Management, 
Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Nuclear Regulatory 
Commission, 11545 Rockville Pike, MD 20852-2738. Telephone: (301) 415-
6677.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is 
conducting a program of site characterization to gather enough 
information, about the Yucca Mountain (Nevada) site, to be able to 
evaluate the waste isolation capabilities of a potential geologic 
repository. Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the 
NRC for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic 
repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level 
radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. As with other licensing decisions, 


[[Page 7569]]
NRC's decision to grant or deny a license for a proposed repository 
will be based on a combination of fact and judgment, as set forth by 
DOE in any potential license application. The subjective judgments of 
individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used 
by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to 
address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated 
with predicting the performance of a geologic repository system for 
thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert 
judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license 
applications. Judgment has been used to complement and supplement other 
sources of scientific and technical information, such as data 
collection, analyses, and experimentation.
    The NRC staff has developed specific technical positions that: (1) 
Provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the 
use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one 
expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable 
procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited 
judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC's 
geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60.
    Current NRC policy is to encourage the use of probabilistic risk 
assessment (PRA) state-of-the-art technology and methods as a 
complement to the deterministic approach in nuclear regulatory 
activities (60 FR 42622). Although routinely used in deterministic 
analyses that do not involve PRA (or performance assessments, in the 
case of waste management systems), expert judgment can, and frequently 
does, provide information essential to the conduct of probabilistic 
assessments. Consistent with the Commission's policy, the NRC staff has 
developed this BTP to identify acceptable procedures for the use and 
formal elicitation of such judgments in the area of HLW.
    Although there are several examples of the use of expert 
elicitation in a nuclear regulatory context, no formal Agency guidance 
on this subject exists. Thus, in developing this BTP, the Division of 
Waste Management staff has drawn upon the prior experience of other NRC 
program offices with the use of expert judgment and has relied on 
various Agency resource documents to help formulate its position 
statements. Consequently, the reader will find that this BTP is largely 
consistent with these other resource documents in substance.
    Subsequent to the finalization of this BTP, the staff may elect to 
develop guidance on the use of expert judgment in other areas of 
nuclear industry regulation.

Dated at Rockville, Maryland, this 20th day of February 1996.

For the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
John H. Austin, Chief,
Performance Assessment and High-Level Waste Integration Branch, 
Division of Waste Management, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and 
Safeguards.
[FR Doc. 96-4484 Filed 2-27-96; 8:45 am]
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