[Federal Register Volume 60, Number 76 (Thursday, April 20, 1995)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 19716-19717]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 95-9840]



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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

49 CFR Part 571


Denial of Petition for Rulemaking; Federal Motor Vehicle Safety 
Standards

AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 
Department of Transportation.

ACTION: Denial of petition for rulemaking.

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SUMMARY: This document denies Mr. John Chevedden's petition for 
rulemaking to specify the license plate mounting location of certain 
cars and light trucks. NHTSA's analysis of accident data indicates that 
requiring cars and light trucks with off-center front license plates to 
have those plates on the driver's side would not have more than a 
negligible effect on the occurrence of accidents or fatalities.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Richard Van Iderstine, Office of 
Rulemaking, NHTSA, 400 Seventh Street, SW, Washington, DC 20590. Mr. 
Van Iderstine's telephone number is: (202) 366-5275.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: By letter dated October 12, 1994, Mr. John 
Chevedden petitioned the agency to issue a rule applicable to new cars 
and light trucks with off-center front license plates. Mr. Chevedden 
asked NHTSA to mandate that those license plates be positioned on the 
driver's side. Mr. Chevedden stated that the rulemaking was needed 
because the chances of a vehicle's becoming involved in an accident at 
night or other times of reduced ambient light increase when the 
vehicle's headlights are off due to the driver's forgetfulness or to 
mechanical problems. Mr. Chevedden argued that the chances of such a 
vehicle's becoming involved in an accident would be reduced if the 
vehicle's off-center front license plate were mounted on the driver's 
side. In that location, today's license plates, which typically are 
reflectorized, would reflect the light from the headlights of oncoming 
traffic. This would indicate how close the vehicle is to opposing 
traffic. Mr. Chevedden argued that license plates mounted on the 
driver's side could also make parked vehicles more visible and lessen 
the possibility of collisions. Mr. Chevedden did not provide any 
analysis of the potential benefits of his requested rule.
    For the following reasons, NHTSA believes that the safety benefits 
of specifying license plate location would be negligible. In attempting 
to quantify potential benefits of specifying license plate location, 
NHTSA reviewed the laws of States that mandate both front license 
plates and reflective license plates and reviewed the numbers and 
circumstances of fatal accidents that occurred in all states in 1992. 
The chance of achieving any benefits through mandating the location of 
front plates would depend on the simultaneous occurrence of a large 
number of events, several of which have a low probability of occurring 
even independently, much less in combination. Those events, and their 
probability of occurring individually in any accident, are set forth 
below, based on 1992 data:

Fatal accidents in which a vehicle is likely to have a reflective front 
plate--
    .47 or 47 percent
Fatal accidents during non-daylight conditions--
    .54 or 54 percent
Fatal accidents involving a head-on or side-swipe collision--
    Head-on=.017 or 1.7 percent
    Side-swipe=.05 or 5 percent
    For a total of .067 or 6.7 percent
    Vehicles having a passenger's side offset front license plate 
assumed to be in fatal accidents--
    .01 or 1 percent
Motor vehicles with no front lamps turned on or having complete front 
lamp failure assumed to be in fatal accidents--
    .01 or 1 percent
Fatal accidents involving parked vehicles--
    .066 or 6.6 percent

    To assess the impact of mandating that offset front license plates 
be located on the driver's side, the agency determined the probability 
of all of the above events occurring in the same accident by 
multiplying the probability of each of the first three events occurring 
individually in a fatal accident by the product of the probabilities 
that a fatally involved vehicle has a front passenger's side license 
plate and that a fatally involved vehicle will have no lights on while 
being driven. The agency believes that the assumption that 1 percent of 
vehicles are operated without lights in the dark is very optimistic to 
the computation of potential benefits.
    NHTSA presumes that American drivers tend toward the right lane of 
the roadway while driving, regardless of the presence or absence of 
lane markings. Therefore, accidents with parked vehicles generally 
concern vehicles [[Page 19717]] parked in the right lane or on the 
right shoulder. Most vehicles in the right lane or shoulder would have 
their rear end facing oncoming vehicles, and the location of a front 
license plate would be irrelevant to the occurrence of a rear end 
collision. In the instances in which the parked vehicle is facing right 
lane traffic, a passenger's side, rather than driver's side, front 
license plate would be in the more favorable position to mark the 
extreme intrusion of the parked vehicle into the roadway. If the agency 
were to include in its computations collisions with parked vehicles 
located in the right lane or on the right shoulder and facing oncoming 
traffic, that inclusion would reduce the potential benefits of the 
requested rulemaking. This would occur because there would be a net 
liability instead of a net benefit for parked cars, according to the 
petitioner's logic, if their front license plates were moved from the 
passenger's side to the driver's side. Therefore, parked vehicles have 
been omitted from the computation of hypothetical maximum benefits. 
Thus, the combined probability of the above events is:

.47 x .54 x .067 x .01 x .01=.0000017

    Next, NHTSA determined the number of fatalities that might have 
occurred in accidents involving that particular combination of events 
by multiplying the probability of that combination of events by the 
total number of occupant fatalities per year.

.0000017 x 39,235=0.067 relevant fatalities/year

    Finally, to determine the number of those fatalities that might be 
prevented by mandating that off-center front license plates be mounted 
on the driver's side, the agency multiplied the number of relevant 
fatalities by a figure representing an assumed level of accident 
preventing effectiveness for that placement of the front license plate. 
For the purposes of analysis, the agency has used a very optimistic 
figure of 2.5 percent.
    The trailer conspicuity achieved about 25 percent effectiveness for 
the rear treatment in its fleet study. Since the light reflected from 
license plates is about 2.6 percent of that from the rear of a trailer 
with conspicuity treatment, and the closure rate of vehicles in 
Chevedden's case is at least twice that of trailer conspicuity cases, a 
very low effectiveness should be assumed. Based on the foregoing, the 
agency assumes that the effectiveness of the off-center front 
reflectorized license plate is one- tenth that of rear trailer 
conspicuity, or 2.5 percent. The estimate of the benefit from the 
Chevedden proposal is:

0.067 x 0.025=.0017 fatalities prevented/year.

    Based on the above analysis, NHTSA estimates that if it were to 
specify that those vehicles with off-center front license plates have 
their front plates located on the driver's side, the number of lives 
saved would not exceed one life for every 588 years.
    The agency also considered the possibility of obtaining benefits by 
applying Chevedden's suggestion so that it would affect fatalities 
involving vehicles lacking any front license plate (16,977) and 
fatalities involving vehicles having front plates that are not 
reflective (22,254). The agency is powerless, however, to mandate that 
vehicles have front plates or that plates be reflective. Therefore, the 
agency cannot address those fatalities by expanding the scope of 
Chevedden's petition.
    The agency disagrees with Mr. Chevedden's suggestion that adopting 
his requested rule would involve ``no cost.'' Specifying license plate 
mounting location would impose redesign and retooling costs associated 
with relocating mounting holes, bumper fascia, and plate holders.
    In accordance with 49 CFR part 552, this completes the agency's 
technical review of the petition. The agency has concluded that there 
is no reasonable possibility that the amendment requested by the 
petitioner would be issued at the conclusion of a rulemaking 
proceeding. Accordingly, it denies Mr. Chevedden's petition.

    Authority: 49 U.S.C. 30103, 30162; delegation of authority at 49 
CFR 1.50 and 501.8.

    Issued on: April 17, 1995.
Barry Felrice,
Associate Administrator for Safety Performance Standards.
[FR Doc. 95-9840 Filed 4-19-95; 8:45 am]
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