[Federal Register Volume 60, Number 69 (Tuesday, April 11, 1995)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 18378-18379]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 95-8912]



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DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE

Parole Commission

28 CFR Part 2


Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners: 
Revision of the Salient Factor Score

AGENCY: Parole Commission.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The U.S. Parole Commission is proposing to revise the Salient 
Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20. The Salient Factor Score which is an 
actuarial table that the Commission uses to measure the potential risk 
of parole violation. This revision is designed to improve the accuracy 
of the Salient Factor Score with respect to older offenders. The 
Commission is proposing to add one point to a prisoner's total score if 
the current offense (or parole violation) was committed at age 41 or 
older, provided the prisoner does not already have the highest possible 
total score (10). This revision will give to the Salient Factor Score 
improved risk prediction accuracy. The revision is made appropriate by 
the fact that the Parole Commission has jurisdiction over an aging 
population of prisoners and parolees whose crimes were committed prior 
to November 1, 1987.

DATES: Comments must be received by June 12, 1995.

ADDRESSES: Send comments to Office of General Counsel, U.S. Parole 
Commission, 5550 Friendship Blvd., Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815. For 
further information contact: Pamela A. Posch, Office of General 
Counsel, Telephone (301) 492-5959.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Salient Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20 is 
an actuarial device, based upon statistical research, that permits the 
U.S. Parole Commission to make a prediction as to the probability of 
future parole violation. It is applied to every prisoner who appears 
for an initial parole hearing, and to every parolee who has been 
returned to prison as a parole violator. The current version of the 
Salient Factor Score (SFS-81) was adopted in 1981, and was recently re-
validated through a study of the parole records of federal prisoners 
released in 1987. This and other validation studies have shown that the 
Salient Factor Score is able to separate prisoners into categories 
having significantly different probabilities of recidivism, and that it 
continues to have a high degree of predictive accuracy.
    However, with the aging of the Parole Commission's ``old law'' 
offender population, it has become apparent that the accuracy of the 
Salient Factor Score could be improved by accounting for the factor of 
``age at current offense'' in the case of older offenders and parole 
violators. (The U.S. Parole Commission's jurisdiction is limited to 
offenders whose crimes were committed prior to November 1, 1987. See 
Section 235 of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, which appears as an 
Editorial Note to 18 U.S.C. 3551.)
    The Commission has long recognized that many criminal offenders 
eventually ``burn out'' as the aging process catches up with them. In a 
1984 study by the Commission's Research Office, entitled ``Burnout--Age 
At Release From Prison and Recidivism'', it was found that recidivism 
rates do decline with increased age, and that it would be justifiable 
to improve the scores of prisoners whose current offense was committed 
at age 41 or older. At the present time, the average age of the ``old 
law'' prison population is 43. Thus, it has now become appropriate to 
consider adding this factor to the score.
    In order to test the accuracy of the proposed revision, the revised 
score was [[Page 18379]] applied to a sample of over 1,000 federal 
prisoners released in 1987. Approximately 5% of those prisoners 
received an improved parole prognosis category placement as compared 
with the current version of the score (SFS-81). Moreover, the revised 
version of the score displayed a high degree of predictive accuracy. 
The Mean Cost Rating increased from .54 to .56, the highest recorded 
for a recidivism prediction device that has been subjected to 
validation.
    Accordingly, the Commission has decided that the Salient Factor 
Score should be revised, in order to ensure that the Commission's 
decisions are based upon the most accurate available risk-prediction 
device. This decision accords with the intent of Congress that the 
Parole Commission should ``* * * continue to refine both the criteria 
which are used (to judge the probability that an offender will commit a 
new offense) and the means for obtaining the information used 
therein.'' 2 U.S. Code Cong. and Admin. News at 359 (1976).

Implementation

    The revised Salient Factor Score (SFS-95) would be applied at every 
initial parole hearing and revocation hearing held on or after the 
effective date of the final regulation, and retroactively to federal 
prisoners who have already been heard for parole or reparole, at the 
next scheduled statutory interim hearing under 28 CFR 2.14 and any 
hearing under Sec. 2.28 or Sec. 2.34.

Executive Order 12866 and Regulatory Flexibility Statement

    The U.S. Parole Commission has determined that this proposed rule 
is not a significant rule within the meaning of Executive Order 12866, 
and the proposed rule has, accordingly, not been reviewed by the Office 
of Management and Budget. The proposed rule, if adopted, will not have 
a significant economic impact upon a substantial number of small 
entities, within the meaning of the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5 
U.S.C. 605(b).

List of Subjects in 28 C.F.R. Part 2

    Administrative practice and procedure, probation and parole, 
prisoners.

    Accordingly, the U.S. Parole Commission proposes the following 
amendment to 28 CFR part 2.

The Proposed Amendment

    (1) The authority citation for 28 CFR part 2 continues to read as 
follows:

    Authority: 18 U.S.C. 4203(a)(1) and 4204(a)(6).

    (2) 28 CFR part 2 Sec. 2.20 is proposed to be amended by adding an 
instruction to the Salient Factor Scoring Manual under a new Item G as 
follows:

ITEM G. If CURRENT OFFENSE WAS COMMITTED AT AGE 41 OR OLDER, ADD 1 
POINT IF THE TOTAL SCORE DETERMINED ABOVE IS 9 OR LESS.

    This instruction would add a seventh item to the current six-item 
score, without changing its current structure as a prediction device 
with possible scores ranging from 0 to 10 points. (A point would not be 
added if the total score is already 10, placing the offender at the top 
of the ``very good'' parole prognosis category.) As in any case, the 
Commission will exercise authority to override the prediction made by 
the revised score if case-specific factors indicate undiminished risk 
despite advancing age, eg, the career criminal offender who has played 
a leadership role in organized crime.

    Dated: March 31, 1995.
Edward F. Reilly, Jr.,
Chairman, U.S. Parole Commission.
[FR Doc. 95-8912 Filed 4-10-95; 8:45 am]
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