[Federal Register Volume 59, Number 248 (Wednesday, December 28, 1994)]
[Unknown Section]
[Page ]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 94-31869]


[Federal Register: December 28, 1994]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
50 CFR Parts 222

[Docket No. 940822-4334; I.D. 101194C]


Endangered and Threatened Species; Status of Snake River Spring/
Summer Chinook Salmon and Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed rule; request for comments.

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SUMMARY: NMFS is issuing a proposed rule to reclassify permanently 
Snake River spring/summer and Snake River fall chinook salmon 
(Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) as endangered, a change from the previous 
threatened status, under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA). NMFS 
has determined that the status of Snake River spring/summer chinook 
salmon and the status of Snake River fall chinook salmon warrant 
reclassification to endangered, based on a projected decline in adult 
Snake River chinook salmon abundance. Both species have already been 
temporarily listed as endangered through an emergency rule published on 
August 18, 1994, which allowed for waiver of notice and comment 
requirements of the Administrative Procedure Act.

DATES: Comments must be received by February 21, 1995. Requests for a 
public hearing must be received by February 6, 1995.

ADDRESSES: Comments on this proposed rule and requests for supporting 
documents should be sent to the Environmental and Technical Services 
Division, NMFS, Northwest Region, 525 NE Oregon Street, Suite 500, 
Portland, OR 97232-2737. The public hearing will be held in the Federal 
Complex, 911 NE 11th Ave., first floor, west side, Portland, OR.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Garth Griffin, 503-230-5430, or Marta 
Nammack, 301-713-1401.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    For background, see Federal Register documents 55 FR 37342 
(September 11, 1990), 56 FR 29547 (June 27, 1991), and 59 FR 42529 
(August 18, 1994).

Current Status

Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon

    Since the listing of Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon as a 
threatened species in 1992, redd counts in index areas have remained at 
the low levels observed during the 1980s. Data from 1994 indicate that 
the situation is much worse than in recent years, indicating that the 
Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon faces an imminent threat of 
extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range. While 
NMFS has determined that both the spring and summer runs constitute a 
single ``species'' (distinct population segment), returning adults are 
counted separately as ``spring'' or ``summer'' fish. The pre-season 
estimate of adult Columbia River upriver spring chinook salmon 
returning in 1994 was 49,000, the third lowest on record since 1938. 
However, this year's final count of adult spring chinook salmon (of 
hatchery origin and naturally spawned) at Bonneville Dam was only 
20,185 (Fish Passage Center 1994), about 43 percent of the previous 
record low return. Further upstream at Lower Granite Dam, the final 
1994 count of adult spring and summer chinook salmon was 3,915 (Fish 
Passage Center 1994), about 16 percent of the recent 10-year average. 
The estimated escapement of the combined run of Snake River spring and 
summer chinook salmon to Lower Granite Dam in 1994 will likely result 
in the production of 250 to 500 redds in the index areas (since 
naturally spawning fish represent only a fraction of the returning 
adults). This redd production figure is only 14 to 28 percent of the 
recent 10-year average (NMFS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 
(USFWS) 1994).
    The return of spring and summer chinook salmon in 1995 is likely to 
be even lower than in 1994. The total spring chinook salmon jack 
(precocious males) count at Bonneville Dam in 1994 was 397 fish (Fish 
Passage Center 1994), less than 30 percent of the record low in 1993, 
and 10 percent of the recent 10 year average (NMFS and USFWS 1994). At 
Lower Granite Dam, the final count of spring chinook salmon jacks in 
1994 was about 25 percent of the 1993 count, and the total 1994 summer 
chinook salmon jack count at Lower Granite Dam was about 62 percent of 
the 1993 count (Fish Passage Center 1994).
    For a given brood year, spring/summer chinook salmon can produce 
offspring that return primarily as 3- (jacks), 4-, and 5-year-old 
adults. While it is impossible to make specific projections for returns 
of spring chinook salmon over the next 3 to 5 years, it is possible to 
comment in general terms on the prospects for decreasing run sizes. 
Because of the weak 1990 brood (i.e., adults spawning in 1990) and the 
apparent failure of the 1991 brood, the prospects for improved returns 
depend on the relatively abundant 1992 and 1993 broods. Outmigration 
conditions in 1994 for offspring of the 1992 brood were poor. 
Therefore, there is reason to believe that adult returns will not 
substantially increase until offspring of the 1993 brood contribute to 
the returns in 1997 and 1998. After 1998, returns will again be 
influenced by poor production resulting from the low adult returns 
experienced in 1994 and expected in 1995. NMFS is concerned that the 
dramatic decline in the spring run of Columbia River chinook salmon 
abundance may indicate that Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon 
abundance will continue to decline in the near future.
    When a species population reaches precariously low levels, random 
processes can lead to two major types of risk: demographic and genetic. 
Demographic risk is the risk of extinction due to environmental 
fluctuations, random events affecting individuals in the population, 
and possible reductions in reproduction or survival due to a small 
population size. Genetic risk is the risk of loss of genetic 
variability and/or population fitness through inbreeding and genetic 
drift. Both types of risk increase rapidly as population size 
decreases. Severe, short-term genetic problems from inbreeding are 
unlikely unless the population size remains very small for a number of 
years. However, the erosion of genetic variability due to small 
population size is cumulative, so long-term effects on the population 
(even if it subsequently recovers numerically) are also a concern.
    The Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon evolutionarily 
significant unit (ESU) is spread over a large geographic area and 
consists of many local spawning populations (subpopulations). 
Therefore, the total number of spawners in a subpopulation would be 
much less than the total run size. Assuming that 1,500 to 2,000 listed 
(naturally reproducing) spring/summer chinook salmon adults survive to 
spawn in 1994, the average number of spawners per subpopulation would 
only be approximately 40 to 50 fish. Based on recent trends in redd 
counts in major tributaries of the Snake River, NMFS believes that many 
subpopulations could be at critically low levels, especially 
subpopulations in the Grande Ronde River, Middle Fork Salmon River, and 
Upper Salmon River Basins. Therefore, both demographic and genetic 
risks are evident, and in some cases, habitat might be so sparsely 
populated that spawning adults may not find mates.

Fall Chinook Salmon

    After the listing of Snake River fall chinook salmon as a 
threatened species in 1992, adult counts at Lower Granite Dam during 
1992 and 1993 remained at low levels. In-season estimates for the 1994 
return indicate that the situation has not substantially improved. This 
lack of overall improvement during recent years, exacerbated by the low 
returns of 1994 and expected low returns in the next few years, 
indicates that the Snake River fall chinook salmon faces an imminent 
threat of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its 
range. The projected adult return of listed Snake River fall chinook 
salmon to the Columbia River during 1994 is 803 fish, the second lowest 
on record (Columbia River Technical Staffs (CRTS) 1994). As discussed 
in CRTS (1994) and summarized in NMFS (1994), the number of listed 
Snake River fall chinook salmon returning in 1994 is expected to be 
below replacement level (i.e., fewer progeny than parents); spawners 
have not replaced themselves in 7 or 8 of the last 9 years.
    Although final count data from the 1994 return will not be 
available until February 1995, a tentative forecast of the 1995 run 
size suggests that the return will be about 60 percent of that expected 
in 1994 (NMFS and USFWS 1994). While it is impossible to make specific 
projections for returns of fall chinook salmon over the next 3 to 5 
years, it is possible to comment generally on the prospects for 
decreasing run sizes. The number of offspring from the 1991 brood is 
apparently quite small, based on the record low return of jacks in 
1993. Therefore, the 5-year-old component of the 1996 return is likely 
to be low. There was sufficient escapement in 1992 and 1993 to allow 
for increased returns after 1995, but success of these runs will depend 
largely on improvements in migration passage and ocean survival 
conditions.
    Although risks associated with small population sizes are also 
applicable to Snake River fall chinook salmon, currently there is no 
evidence of multiple, naturally spawning subpopulations of this 
species. Still, the primary risk to Snake River fall chinook salmon 
remains the continued low numbers of spawning adults, and genetic and 
demographic risks will increase if the population remains at depressed 
levels for a number of consecutive years.

Factors Affecting the Species

    Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA specifies five factors to be evaluated 
during a status review of a species or population proposed for listing 
or reclassification. These factors are discussed below with respect to 
Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook 
salmon.

A. Present or Threatened Destruction, Modification, or Curtailment of 
its Habitat or Range

    Hydropower development has resulted in the blockage and inundation 
of habitat, turbine-related mortality of juvenile fish, and increased 
travel times for adults and juveniles migrating through the Snake and 
Columbia Rivers. Water withdrawal and storage, irrigation diversions, 
siltation and pollution from sewage, farming, grazing, logging, and 
mining have also degraded Snake River salmon habitat. Changes in the 
operation of lower Snake and Columbia River Dams and changes in land 
and water management activities since the listing of Snake River 
chinook salmon should result in long-term improvements in survival of 
adult and juvenile chinook salmon. However, the low adult run size in 
1994 and projected low returns during the next few years suggest that 
these changes have not yet been sufficient to remove the immediate 
risks to these species.

B. Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or 
Educational Purposes

    Historically, combined ocean and river harvest rates of Snake River 
spring/summer chinook salmon exceeded 80 and sometimes 90 percent 
(Ricker 1959). Current ocean and river harvest levels of Snake River 
spring/summer chinook salmon have been reduced in the commercial, 
recreational, and tribal fisheries due to low escapements and efforts 
to protect these runs. Between 1991 and 1993, the approximate harvest 
rate for Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon (primarily in the 
Columbia River) ranged from 5.5 to 7.7 percent.
    For upriver bright (upper Columbia River and Snake River) fall 
chinook salmon, the 1990 total harvest rate (commercial, recreational, 
and tribal fisheries) was approximately 70 percent. Measures have been 
taken between 1991 and 1993 to reduce harvest rates on Snake River fall 
chinook salmon to approximately 50 percent. However, as evidenced by 
continued and projected low returns, these efforts have not reversed 
the decline of the species and further measures are urgently needed to 
reduce the risk of extinction.
    While there are a number of scientific research programs which 
involve handling, tagging, and moving fish in the Columbia and Snake 
Rivers, NMFS believes that the contribution of these programs to the 
decline of listed Snake River chinook salmon is negligible. 
Furthermore, these programs contribute to the efforts to enhance long-
term survival of these species.

C. Disease or Predation

    Chinook salmon are exposed to numerous bacterial, protozoan, viral, 
and parasitic organisms; however, these organisms' impacts on Snake 
River chinook salmon are largely unknown.
    Predator populations, particularly northern squawfish 
(Ptychocheilus oregonensis), have increased due to hydroelectric 
development that created impoundments providing ideal predator foraging 
areas. Turbulent conditions in dam turbines, bypasses, and spillways 
have increased predator success by stunning or disorienting passing 
juvenile salmon migrants. Increased efforts to reduce populations of 
northern squawfish should result in survival improvements of listed 
salmon, but the benefits are not yet fully known.
    Marine mammal numbers, especially harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and 
California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), are increasing on the 
West Coast, and increases in predation by pinnipeds have been noted in 
some Northwest salmonid fisheries. However, the extent to which marine 
mammal predation is a factor causing the decline of listed Snake River 
chinook salmon is unknown.

D. Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory Mechanisms

    A wide variety of Federal and state laws and programs have affected 
the abundance and survival of anadromous fish populations in the 
Columbia River Basin. Relevant regulatory mechanisms in place when the 
species were proposed for listing were discussed in supplemental 
reports identifying factors for the species' decline (NMFS 1991a; NMFS 
1991b). Several factors identified as contributing to the decline of 
fall chinook salmon (56 FR 29547, June 27, 1991) have seen improvements 
during the past 3 years. For example, regulations aimed at improving 
river flow and juvenile acclimation for upper Columbia River (e.g., 
Umatilla River) fall chinook salmon are believed to have reduced 
straying impacts on listed fall chinook populations. Similarly, marking 
programs have been successfully implemented which will prevent the 
accidental inclusion of upper Columbia River fall chinook salmon into 
the Lyons Ferry Hatchery broodstock, i.e., a hatchery population 
believed to contain genetic resources potentially important to the 
recovery of listed Snake River fall chinook salmon. Although these and 
other improvements in regulatory mechanisms have been made since 
listing these species, increases in estimated Snake River chinook 
salmon abundance during the 1991 through 1993 period are not expected 
to be sustained in the near future. This indicates that regulatory 
mechanisms currently in place are insufficient or not effectively 
applied, and further measures must be taken to reverse the continuing 
decline of listed Snake River salmon. NMFS will soon publish a recovery 
plan for these species which will describe site-specific management 
actions and recovery tasks needed to restore Snake River chinook salmon 
populations to optimum sustainable levels.

E. Other Natural and Manmade Factors Affecting its Continued Existence

    Drought conditions have contributed to the decline of Snake River 
chinook salmon, especially in recent years. Annual mean streamflows for 
the 1977 water year were the lowest recorded since the late 19th 
century for many streams (Columbia River Water Management Group 1978). 
Generally, drought conditions have continued since this time, 
particularly in the Snake River Basin.
    Long-term trends in marine productivity associated with atmospheric 
conditions in the North Pacific Ocean may have a major influence on 
salmon production. Unusually warm ocean surface temperatures and 
associated changes in coastal currents and upwelling, known as El Nino 
conditions, result in ecosystem alterations such as reductions in 
primary and secondary productivity and changes in prey and predator 
species distributions. The degree to which adverse ocean conditions can 
influence Snake River chinook salmon production is not known, however, 
juvenile salmon adapting to the nearshore ocean environment are 
probably particularly vulnerable.
    Artificial propagation has, in some cases, impacted listed Snake 
River spring/summer chinook salmon. Potential problems associated with 
hatchery programs include genetic impacts on indigenous wild 
populations from stock transfers, reduced natural production due to 
collection of wild adults for hatchery brood stocks, competition with 
wild salmon, predation of wild salmon by hatchery salmon, and disease 
transmission.
    Artificial propagation activities in the Snake River have also been 
a factor in the decline of Snake River fall chinook salmon. The taking 
of Snake River fall chinook salmon for hatchery brood stock has reduced 
natural escapement, and the straying of hatchery fall chinook salmon 
from other areas into the Snake River threatens the genetic integrity 
of wild Snake River fall chinook salmon. Most of the stray adult fall 
chinook salmon returning to Lyons Ferry Hatchery originate from 
Umatilla River releases. Although the Oregon Department of Fish and 
Wildlife now releases hatchery fall chinook salmon further upstream in 
the Umatilla River to improve imprinting, implementation of adequate 
flow augmentation actions in the lower Umatilla River have not yet been 
accomplished and low-flow conditions in the Umatilla River during adult 
return periods still contribute to straying concerns.

Conclusion

    Although measures have been taken pursuant to the ESA since listing 
in 1992 to improve habitat and migration passage conditions, decrease 
harvest levels, and improve hatchery programs, NMFS believes that 
recent and projected adult returns indicate that Snake River chinook 
salmon are now in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant 
portion of their range. Therefore, NMFS is proposing to reclassify 
Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook 
salmon as endangered under the ESA. While these species are currently 
listed as endangered, this listing was done on an emergency basis that 
expires after 240 days. This proposed rule is for a reclassification as 
endangered until a further reclassification is warranted and a 
rulemaking to accomplish same is completed.
    Although the reclassification will not result in additional 
prohibitions under section 9 of the ESA, the reclassification serves 
notice that NMFS will implement further protections to reverse the 
continued decline.
    Evaluation criteria used by Federal action agencies to assess 
impacts on listed salmon should be reassessed to ensure adequate 
protection for these species and preserve future options for recovery. 
The proposed reclassification more accurately reflects the status of 
these species and the fact that these stocks are now considered to be 
precariously close to extinction. A more accurate characterization of 
the status of Snake River chinook salmon should encourage action 
agencies to immediately employ more conservative criteria when they 
propose, evaluate, and implement their actions. Reclassification 
signals the continuing decline of these species; new information 
regarding population size or other threats to these species, such as 
further drought or another El Nino, may indicate that Federal actions 
are affecting listed species in a manner or to an extent not previously 
analyzed.

Public Comment Solicited

    To ensure that the final action resulting from this proposal will 
be as accurate and effective as possible, NMFS is soliciting comments 
and suggestions from the public, including states and tribes, other 
concerned public agencies, the scientific community, industry, and any 
other interested parties. The final decision on this proposal will take 
into consideration the comments and any additional information received 
by NMFS.
    NMFS will be soliciting expert opinions of three appropriate and 
independent specialists regarding pertinent scientific or commercial 
data and assumptions relating to the taxonomy, population models, and 
supportive biological and ecological information for species under 
consideration for listing and summarizing in the final decision 
document the opinions of all independent peer reviewers received on 
this proposed reclassification.

Classification

    The 1982 amendments to the ESA in section 4(b)(1)(A) restrict the 
information that may be considered when assessing species for listing. 
Based on this limitation of criteria for a listing decision and the 
opinion in Pacific Legal Foundation v. Andrus, 675 F.2d 825 (6th Cir. 
1981), NMFS has categorically excluded all ESA listing actions from 
environmental assessment requirements of the National Environmental 
Policy Act under NOAA Administrative Order 216-6.
    This proposed rule is exempt from review under E.O. 12866.

References

Columbia River Technical Staffs (CRTS). 1994. Biological Assessment 
of Impacts of Anticipated 1994 Fall Season Columbia River and 
Mainstem Tributary Fisheries on Listed Snake River Salmon Species 
Under the Endangered Species Act. June 30, 1994. 34 p.
Fish Passage Center. 1994. Weekly Report 94-24 (September 9, 1994). 
Fish Passage Center, Portland, OR.
Matthews, G.M. and R.S. Waples. 1991. Status Review for Snake River 
Spring and Summer Chinook Salmon. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. 
Memo. NMFS F/NWC-200. 75 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service. 1991a. Factors for Decline: A 
Supplement to the Notice of Determination for Snake River Spring/
Summer Chinook Salmon Under the Endangered Species Act. NMFS, 
Environmental and Technical Services Division, Portland, OR. 70 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service. 1991b. Factors for Decline: A 
Supplement to the Notice of Determination for Snake River Fall 
Chinook Salmon Under the Endangered Species Act. NMFS, Environmental 
and Technical Services Division, Portland, OR. 55 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). 1994. Section 7 
Consultation--Biological Opinion: 1994 Fall Season Mainstem Columbia 
River Recreational Fishery, Tributary and Terminal Area Fisheries 
and Trapping Operations at Bonneville Dam. August 10, 1994. NMFS, 
Northwest Regional Office, Seattle, WA. 12 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife 
Service. 1994. May 9, 1994, letter (with enclosures) from J. Smith, 
NMFS, and M. Plenert, USFWS, to Governor Lowry, Washington, and 
Governor Roberts, Oregon.
Waples, R.S., R.P. Jones, Jr., B.R. Beckman, and G.A. Swan. 1991. 
Status Review for Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon. U.S. Dep. 
Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS F/NWC-201. 73 p.

List of Subjects

50 CFR Part 222

    Administrative practice and procedure, Endangered and threatened 
species, Exports, Imports, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, 
Transportation.

50 CFR Part 227

    Endangered and threatened species, Exports, Imports, Marine 
mammals, Transportation.

    Dated: December 21, 1994.
Rolland A. Schmitten,
Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries 
Service.

    For the reasons set out in the preamble, the amendment to 50 CFR 
part 222 published in the emergency interim rule at 59 FR 42532, on 
August 18, 1994, is proposed to continue in effect as a permanent 
regulation.

[FR Doc. 94-31869 Filed 12-22-94; 3:14 pm]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-P