[Federal Register Volume 59, Number 248 (Wednesday, December 28, 1994)]
[Unknown Section]
[Page ]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 94-31869]
[Federal Register: December 28, 1994]
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
50 CFR Parts 222
[Docket No. 940822-4334; I.D. 101194C]
Endangered and Threatened Species; Status of Snake River Spring/
Summer Chinook Salmon and Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon
AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.
ACTION: Proposed rule; request for comments.
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SUMMARY: NMFS is issuing a proposed rule to reclassify permanently
Snake River spring/summer and Snake River fall chinook salmon
(Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) as endangered, a change from the previous
threatened status, under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA). NMFS
has determined that the status of Snake River spring/summer chinook
salmon and the status of Snake River fall chinook salmon warrant
reclassification to endangered, based on a projected decline in adult
Snake River chinook salmon abundance. Both species have already been
temporarily listed as endangered through an emergency rule published on
August 18, 1994, which allowed for waiver of notice and comment
requirements of the Administrative Procedure Act.
DATES: Comments must be received by February 21, 1995. Requests for a
public hearing must be received by February 6, 1995.
ADDRESSES: Comments on this proposed rule and requests for supporting
documents should be sent to the Environmental and Technical Services
Division, NMFS, Northwest Region, 525 NE Oregon Street, Suite 500,
Portland, OR 97232-2737. The public hearing will be held in the Federal
Complex, 911 NE 11th Ave., first floor, west side, Portland, OR.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Garth Griffin, 503-230-5430, or Marta
Nammack, 301-713-1401.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
For background, see Federal Register documents 55 FR 37342
(September 11, 1990), 56 FR 29547 (June 27, 1991), and 59 FR 42529
(August 18, 1994).
Current Status
Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon
Since the listing of Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon as a
threatened species in 1992, redd counts in index areas have remained at
the low levels observed during the 1980s. Data from 1994 indicate that
the situation is much worse than in recent years, indicating that the
Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon faces an imminent threat of
extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range. While
NMFS has determined that both the spring and summer runs constitute a
single ``species'' (distinct population segment), returning adults are
counted separately as ``spring'' or ``summer'' fish. The pre-season
estimate of adult Columbia River upriver spring chinook salmon
returning in 1994 was 49,000, the third lowest on record since 1938.
However, this year's final count of adult spring chinook salmon (of
hatchery origin and naturally spawned) at Bonneville Dam was only
20,185 (Fish Passage Center 1994), about 43 percent of the previous
record low return. Further upstream at Lower Granite Dam, the final
1994 count of adult spring and summer chinook salmon was 3,915 (Fish
Passage Center 1994), about 16 percent of the recent 10-year average.
The estimated escapement of the combined run of Snake River spring and
summer chinook salmon to Lower Granite Dam in 1994 will likely result
in the production of 250 to 500 redds in the index areas (since
naturally spawning fish represent only a fraction of the returning
adults). This redd production figure is only 14 to 28 percent of the
recent 10-year average (NMFS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
(USFWS) 1994).
The return of spring and summer chinook salmon in 1995 is likely to
be even lower than in 1994. The total spring chinook salmon jack
(precocious males) count at Bonneville Dam in 1994 was 397 fish (Fish
Passage Center 1994), less than 30 percent of the record low in 1993,
and 10 percent of the recent 10 year average (NMFS and USFWS 1994). At
Lower Granite Dam, the final count of spring chinook salmon jacks in
1994 was about 25 percent of the 1993 count, and the total 1994 summer
chinook salmon jack count at Lower Granite Dam was about 62 percent of
the 1993 count (Fish Passage Center 1994).
For a given brood year, spring/summer chinook salmon can produce
offspring that return primarily as 3- (jacks), 4-, and 5-year-old
adults. While it is impossible to make specific projections for returns
of spring chinook salmon over the next 3 to 5 years, it is possible to
comment in general terms on the prospects for decreasing run sizes.
Because of the weak 1990 brood (i.e., adults spawning in 1990) and the
apparent failure of the 1991 brood, the prospects for improved returns
depend on the relatively abundant 1992 and 1993 broods. Outmigration
conditions in 1994 for offspring of the 1992 brood were poor.
Therefore, there is reason to believe that adult returns will not
substantially increase until offspring of the 1993 brood contribute to
the returns in 1997 and 1998. After 1998, returns will again be
influenced by poor production resulting from the low adult returns
experienced in 1994 and expected in 1995. NMFS is concerned that the
dramatic decline in the spring run of Columbia River chinook salmon
abundance may indicate that Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon
abundance will continue to decline in the near future.
When a species population reaches precariously low levels, random
processes can lead to two major types of risk: demographic and genetic.
Demographic risk is the risk of extinction due to environmental
fluctuations, random events affecting individuals in the population,
and possible reductions in reproduction or survival due to a small
population size. Genetic risk is the risk of loss of genetic
variability and/or population fitness through inbreeding and genetic
drift. Both types of risk increase rapidly as population size
decreases. Severe, short-term genetic problems from inbreeding are
unlikely unless the population size remains very small for a number of
years. However, the erosion of genetic variability due to small
population size is cumulative, so long-term effects on the population
(even if it subsequently recovers numerically) are also a concern.
The Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon evolutionarily
significant unit (ESU) is spread over a large geographic area and
consists of many local spawning populations (subpopulations).
Therefore, the total number of spawners in a subpopulation would be
much less than the total run size. Assuming that 1,500 to 2,000 listed
(naturally reproducing) spring/summer chinook salmon adults survive to
spawn in 1994, the average number of spawners per subpopulation would
only be approximately 40 to 50 fish. Based on recent trends in redd
counts in major tributaries of the Snake River, NMFS believes that many
subpopulations could be at critically low levels, especially
subpopulations in the Grande Ronde River, Middle Fork Salmon River, and
Upper Salmon River Basins. Therefore, both demographic and genetic
risks are evident, and in some cases, habitat might be so sparsely
populated that spawning adults may not find mates.
Fall Chinook Salmon
After the listing of Snake River fall chinook salmon as a
threatened species in 1992, adult counts at Lower Granite Dam during
1992 and 1993 remained at low levels. In-season estimates for the 1994
return indicate that the situation has not substantially improved. This
lack of overall improvement during recent years, exacerbated by the low
returns of 1994 and expected low returns in the next few years,
indicates that the Snake River fall chinook salmon faces an imminent
threat of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its
range. The projected adult return of listed Snake River fall chinook
salmon to the Columbia River during 1994 is 803 fish, the second lowest
on record (Columbia River Technical Staffs (CRTS) 1994). As discussed
in CRTS (1994) and summarized in NMFS (1994), the number of listed
Snake River fall chinook salmon returning in 1994 is expected to be
below replacement level (i.e., fewer progeny than parents); spawners
have not replaced themselves in 7 or 8 of the last 9 years.
Although final count data from the 1994 return will not be
available until February 1995, a tentative forecast of the 1995 run
size suggests that the return will be about 60 percent of that expected
in 1994 (NMFS and USFWS 1994). While it is impossible to make specific
projections for returns of fall chinook salmon over the next 3 to 5
years, it is possible to comment generally on the prospects for
decreasing run sizes. The number of offspring from the 1991 brood is
apparently quite small, based on the record low return of jacks in
1993. Therefore, the 5-year-old component of the 1996 return is likely
to be low. There was sufficient escapement in 1992 and 1993 to allow
for increased returns after 1995, but success of these runs will depend
largely on improvements in migration passage and ocean survival
conditions.
Although risks associated with small population sizes are also
applicable to Snake River fall chinook salmon, currently there is no
evidence of multiple, naturally spawning subpopulations of this
species. Still, the primary risk to Snake River fall chinook salmon
remains the continued low numbers of spawning adults, and genetic and
demographic risks will increase if the population remains at depressed
levels for a number of consecutive years.
Factors Affecting the Species
Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA specifies five factors to be evaluated
during a status review of a species or population proposed for listing
or reclassification. These factors are discussed below with respect to
Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook
salmon.
A. Present or Threatened Destruction, Modification, or Curtailment of
its Habitat or Range
Hydropower development has resulted in the blockage and inundation
of habitat, turbine-related mortality of juvenile fish, and increased
travel times for adults and juveniles migrating through the Snake and
Columbia Rivers. Water withdrawal and storage, irrigation diversions,
siltation and pollution from sewage, farming, grazing, logging, and
mining have also degraded Snake River salmon habitat. Changes in the
operation of lower Snake and Columbia River Dams and changes in land
and water management activities since the listing of Snake River
chinook salmon should result in long-term improvements in survival of
adult and juvenile chinook salmon. However, the low adult run size in
1994 and projected low returns during the next few years suggest that
these changes have not yet been sufficient to remove the immediate
risks to these species.
B. Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or
Educational Purposes
Historically, combined ocean and river harvest rates of Snake River
spring/summer chinook salmon exceeded 80 and sometimes 90 percent
(Ricker 1959). Current ocean and river harvest levels of Snake River
spring/summer chinook salmon have been reduced in the commercial,
recreational, and tribal fisheries due to low escapements and efforts
to protect these runs. Between 1991 and 1993, the approximate harvest
rate for Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon (primarily in the
Columbia River) ranged from 5.5 to 7.7 percent.
For upriver bright (upper Columbia River and Snake River) fall
chinook salmon, the 1990 total harvest rate (commercial, recreational,
and tribal fisheries) was approximately 70 percent. Measures have been
taken between 1991 and 1993 to reduce harvest rates on Snake River fall
chinook salmon to approximately 50 percent. However, as evidenced by
continued and projected low returns, these efforts have not reversed
the decline of the species and further measures are urgently needed to
reduce the risk of extinction.
While there are a number of scientific research programs which
involve handling, tagging, and moving fish in the Columbia and Snake
Rivers, NMFS believes that the contribution of these programs to the
decline of listed Snake River chinook salmon is negligible.
Furthermore, these programs contribute to the efforts to enhance long-
term survival of these species.
C. Disease or Predation
Chinook salmon are exposed to numerous bacterial, protozoan, viral,
and parasitic organisms; however, these organisms' impacts on Snake
River chinook salmon are largely unknown.
Predator populations, particularly northern squawfish
(Ptychocheilus oregonensis), have increased due to hydroelectric
development that created impoundments providing ideal predator foraging
areas. Turbulent conditions in dam turbines, bypasses, and spillways
have increased predator success by stunning or disorienting passing
juvenile salmon migrants. Increased efforts to reduce populations of
northern squawfish should result in survival improvements of listed
salmon, but the benefits are not yet fully known.
Marine mammal numbers, especially harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and
California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), are increasing on the
West Coast, and increases in predation by pinnipeds have been noted in
some Northwest salmonid fisheries. However, the extent to which marine
mammal predation is a factor causing the decline of listed Snake River
chinook salmon is unknown.
D. Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory Mechanisms
A wide variety of Federal and state laws and programs have affected
the abundance and survival of anadromous fish populations in the
Columbia River Basin. Relevant regulatory mechanisms in place when the
species were proposed for listing were discussed in supplemental
reports identifying factors for the species' decline (NMFS 1991a; NMFS
1991b). Several factors identified as contributing to the decline of
fall chinook salmon (56 FR 29547, June 27, 1991) have seen improvements
during the past 3 years. For example, regulations aimed at improving
river flow and juvenile acclimation for upper Columbia River (e.g.,
Umatilla River) fall chinook salmon are believed to have reduced
straying impacts on listed fall chinook populations. Similarly, marking
programs have been successfully implemented which will prevent the
accidental inclusion of upper Columbia River fall chinook salmon into
the Lyons Ferry Hatchery broodstock, i.e., a hatchery population
believed to contain genetic resources potentially important to the
recovery of listed Snake River fall chinook salmon. Although these and
other improvements in regulatory mechanisms have been made since
listing these species, increases in estimated Snake River chinook
salmon abundance during the 1991 through 1993 period are not expected
to be sustained in the near future. This indicates that regulatory
mechanisms currently in place are insufficient or not effectively
applied, and further measures must be taken to reverse the continuing
decline of listed Snake River salmon. NMFS will soon publish a recovery
plan for these species which will describe site-specific management
actions and recovery tasks needed to restore Snake River chinook salmon
populations to optimum sustainable levels.
E. Other Natural and Manmade Factors Affecting its Continued Existence
Drought conditions have contributed to the decline of Snake River
chinook salmon, especially in recent years. Annual mean streamflows for
the 1977 water year were the lowest recorded since the late 19th
century for many streams (Columbia River Water Management Group 1978).
Generally, drought conditions have continued since this time,
particularly in the Snake River Basin.
Long-term trends in marine productivity associated with atmospheric
conditions in the North Pacific Ocean may have a major influence on
salmon production. Unusually warm ocean surface temperatures and
associated changes in coastal currents and upwelling, known as El Nino
conditions, result in ecosystem alterations such as reductions in
primary and secondary productivity and changes in prey and predator
species distributions. The degree to which adverse ocean conditions can
influence Snake River chinook salmon production is not known, however,
juvenile salmon adapting to the nearshore ocean environment are
probably particularly vulnerable.
Artificial propagation has, in some cases, impacted listed Snake
River spring/summer chinook salmon. Potential problems associated with
hatchery programs include genetic impacts on indigenous wild
populations from stock transfers, reduced natural production due to
collection of wild adults for hatchery brood stocks, competition with
wild salmon, predation of wild salmon by hatchery salmon, and disease
transmission.
Artificial propagation activities in the Snake River have also been
a factor in the decline of Snake River fall chinook salmon. The taking
of Snake River fall chinook salmon for hatchery brood stock has reduced
natural escapement, and the straying of hatchery fall chinook salmon
from other areas into the Snake River threatens the genetic integrity
of wild Snake River fall chinook salmon. Most of the stray adult fall
chinook salmon returning to Lyons Ferry Hatchery originate from
Umatilla River releases. Although the Oregon Department of Fish and
Wildlife now releases hatchery fall chinook salmon further upstream in
the Umatilla River to improve imprinting, implementation of adequate
flow augmentation actions in the lower Umatilla River have not yet been
accomplished and low-flow conditions in the Umatilla River during adult
return periods still contribute to straying concerns.
Conclusion
Although measures have been taken pursuant to the ESA since listing
in 1992 to improve habitat and migration passage conditions, decrease
harvest levels, and improve hatchery programs, NMFS believes that
recent and projected adult returns indicate that Snake River chinook
salmon are now in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant
portion of their range. Therefore, NMFS is proposing to reclassify
Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook
salmon as endangered under the ESA. While these species are currently
listed as endangered, this listing was done on an emergency basis that
expires after 240 days. This proposed rule is for a reclassification as
endangered until a further reclassification is warranted and a
rulemaking to accomplish same is completed.
Although the reclassification will not result in additional
prohibitions under section 9 of the ESA, the reclassification serves
notice that NMFS will implement further protections to reverse the
continued decline.
Evaluation criteria used by Federal action agencies to assess
impacts on listed salmon should be reassessed to ensure adequate
protection for these species and preserve future options for recovery.
The proposed reclassification more accurately reflects the status of
these species and the fact that these stocks are now considered to be
precariously close to extinction. A more accurate characterization of
the status of Snake River chinook salmon should encourage action
agencies to immediately employ more conservative criteria when they
propose, evaluate, and implement their actions. Reclassification
signals the continuing decline of these species; new information
regarding population size or other threats to these species, such as
further drought or another El Nino, may indicate that Federal actions
are affecting listed species in a manner or to an extent not previously
analyzed.
Public Comment Solicited
To ensure that the final action resulting from this proposal will
be as accurate and effective as possible, NMFS is soliciting comments
and suggestions from the public, including states and tribes, other
concerned public agencies, the scientific community, industry, and any
other interested parties. The final decision on this proposal will take
into consideration the comments and any additional information received
by NMFS.
NMFS will be soliciting expert opinions of three appropriate and
independent specialists regarding pertinent scientific or commercial
data and assumptions relating to the taxonomy, population models, and
supportive biological and ecological information for species under
consideration for listing and summarizing in the final decision
document the opinions of all independent peer reviewers received on
this proposed reclassification.
Classification
The 1982 amendments to the ESA in section 4(b)(1)(A) restrict the
information that may be considered when assessing species for listing.
Based on this limitation of criteria for a listing decision and the
opinion in Pacific Legal Foundation v. Andrus, 675 F.2d 825 (6th Cir.
1981), NMFS has categorically excluded all ESA listing actions from
environmental assessment requirements of the National Environmental
Policy Act under NOAA Administrative Order 216-6.
This proposed rule is exempt from review under E.O. 12866.
References
Columbia River Technical Staffs (CRTS). 1994. Biological Assessment
of Impacts of Anticipated 1994 Fall Season Columbia River and
Mainstem Tributary Fisheries on Listed Snake River Salmon Species
Under the Endangered Species Act. June 30, 1994. 34 p.
Fish Passage Center. 1994. Weekly Report 94-24 (September 9, 1994).
Fish Passage Center, Portland, OR.
Matthews, G.M. and R.S. Waples. 1991. Status Review for Snake River
Spring and Summer Chinook Salmon. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech.
Memo. NMFS F/NWC-200. 75 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service. 1991a. Factors for Decline: A
Supplement to the Notice of Determination for Snake River Spring/
Summer Chinook Salmon Under the Endangered Species Act. NMFS,
Environmental and Technical Services Division, Portland, OR. 70 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service. 1991b. Factors for Decline: A
Supplement to the Notice of Determination for Snake River Fall
Chinook Salmon Under the Endangered Species Act. NMFS, Environmental
and Technical Services Division, Portland, OR. 55 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). 1994. Section 7
Consultation--Biological Opinion: 1994 Fall Season Mainstem Columbia
River Recreational Fishery, Tributary and Terminal Area Fisheries
and Trapping Operations at Bonneville Dam. August 10, 1994. NMFS,
Northwest Regional Office, Seattle, WA. 12 p.
National Marine Fisheries Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service. 1994. May 9, 1994, letter (with enclosures) from J. Smith,
NMFS, and M. Plenert, USFWS, to Governor Lowry, Washington, and
Governor Roberts, Oregon.
Waples, R.S., R.P. Jones, Jr., B.R. Beckman, and G.A. Swan. 1991.
Status Review for Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon. U.S. Dep.
Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS F/NWC-201. 73 p.
List of Subjects
50 CFR Part 222
Administrative practice and procedure, Endangered and threatened
species, Exports, Imports, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements,
Transportation.
50 CFR Part 227
Endangered and threatened species, Exports, Imports, Marine
mammals, Transportation.
Dated: December 21, 1994.
Rolland A. Schmitten,
Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries
Service.
For the reasons set out in the preamble, the amendment to 50 CFR
part 222 published in the emergency interim rule at 59 FR 42532, on
August 18, 1994, is proposed to continue in effect as a permanent
regulation.
[FR Doc. 94-31869 Filed 12-22-94; 3:14 pm]
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