[Federal Register Volume 59, Number 211 (Wednesday, November 2, 1994)]
[Notices]
[Page 0]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 94-27125]


[[Page Unknown]]

[Federal Register: November 2, 1994]


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NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION
 

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Implementation Plan Workshop

AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

ACTION: Notice of public workshop.

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SUMMARY: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will conduct a public 
workshop on December 2, 1994, to discuss the Commission's Probabilistic 
Risk Assessment (PRA) Implementation Plan. The PRA Implementation Plan 
was developed to ensure that the increased use of PRA methods and 
technology in nuclear regulatory activities would be implemented in a 
consistent and predictable manner that promotes regulatory stability 
and efficiency. The purpose of the workshop is to inform the public of 
NRC activities related to increasing the use of PRA methods and 
techniques in regulatory applications and receive public comments on 
these activities. The principal focus of this workshop will be PRA 
applications for commercial power reactors and while the NRC 
presentations will be broad in nature, NRC staff representatives will 
be present to address specific areas of concern or specific line items 
in the PRA Implementation Plan.

DATES: November 28, 1994--Advance notification of intent to attend the 
workshop, desire to comment or make a presentation during the workshop, 
or both, is requested by the NRC. Participants are encouraged to submit 
written comments, presentation summaries, or both to the staff by this 
date.
    December 2, 1994--The workshop will be held at the NRC Auditorium 
from 8:30 am to 4:30 pm.
    January 20, 1995--All written comments on matters covered by the 
workshop received by this date will be considered by the staff. Written 
comments received after January 20, 1995, will be considered to the 
extent practical.
    Written comments on the PRA Implementation Plan will be accepted 
before, during, and after the workshop. Advance comments, which could 
serve to enhance the effectiveness of the workshop are particularly 
solicited.

ADDRESSES: The workshop will be held in the NRC Auditorium. The NRC 
Auditorium is located on an underground level between the One White 
Flint North Building and the Two White Flint North Building at 11545 
Rockville Pike, Rockville, Maryland 20852. The NRC buildings are 
located across from the entrance to the White Flint Metro Station.
    Notification of intent to attend, desire to make a statement or 
presentation should be sent to Thomas G. Hiltz, Office of Nuclear 
Reactor Regulation, Mail Stop O-11-F-23, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory 
Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001. These notifications can also be 
transmitted via facsimile or telephone. The facsimile number is (301) 
504-2279 and the telephone number is (301) 504-1105. The facsimile 
cover sheet should contain the address information listed above.\1\

    \1\Letter or facsimile notifications should contain, and people 
giving notification via telephone should be prepared to provide, the 
following pre-registration information: full name of participants/
attendees, name of organization or business, mailing address, 
daytime telephone, facsimile number, a statement concerning whether 
the person or organization will provide comments or a presentation 
during the workshop, a statement concerning whether the person or 
organization intents to provide written comments before or after the 
workshop, and any specific questions or comments that the 
participant or organization would like to be considered and/or 
addressed at the workshop.
    Copies of documents cited in the supplementary Information section 
are available for inspection and/or for reproduction for a fee in the 
NRC Public Document Room, 2120 L Street NW (Lower Level), Washington, 
DC 20037. Copies of NUREGs cited in this document may be purchased from 
the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, P.O. 
Box 37082, Washington, DC 20013-7082. Copies are also available for 
purchase from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port 
Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161.
    In addition, copies of the following documents can be obtained 
electronically by accessing the NRC electronic bulletin board system 
(BBS) Tech Specs Plus:
    (1) SECY-94-218, ``Proposed Policy Statement on the Use of 
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods in Nuclear Regulatory 
Activities'';
    (2) SECY-94-219, ``Proposed Agency-Wide Implementation Plan for 
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)'';
    (3) the Commission's Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) of 
September 13, 1994 concerning the August 30, 1994 Commission meeting; 
and
    (4) the Commission's SRM of October 4, 1994 on SECY-94-218.
    These four WordPerfect 5.1 documents are located in the BBS MISC 
library directory under the single filename ``PRAPLAN.ZIP''. The BBS 
operates 24 hours a day and can be accessed through a toll-free number, 
1-800-679-5784, at modem speeds up to 9600 baud with communication 
parameters set at 8 data bits, no parity, 1 stop bit, full duplex, and 
using ANSI terminal emulation.
    Written comments may be sent to the Chief, Rules Review and 
Directives Branch, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 
20555-0001.
    Hand-deliver comments to Two White Flint North, 11545 Rockville 
Pike, Rockville, Maryland 20852, between 7:30 am and 4:15 pm on Federal 
workdays.
    Copies of comments received and relevant reference documents may be 
examined at the NRC Public Document Room at 2120 L Street NW. (Lower 
Level), Washington, DC, between the hours of 7:45 am and 4:15 pm on 
Federal workdays.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Thomas G. Hiltz, Office of Nuclear 
Reactor Regulation, Mail Stop OWFN 11-F-23, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory 
Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001, telephone (301) 504-1105.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

    I. Background.
    II. Tentative Agenda.
    III. Workshop Content and Structure.

I. Background

The Proposed PRA Policy Statement

    To establish top-level guidance on the use of PRA in nuclear 
regulatory activities and aid in development of a detailed PRA 
Implementation Plan, the NRC staff proposed a policy statement 
regarding the use of PRA in regulatory activities. The policy statement 
would articulate the Commission's position on the role of PRA in 
various regulatory programs and would communicate that position to the 
NRC staff, the public, licensees, and applicants for licenses.
    The NRC staff discussed its recommendations for a PRA policy 
statement in SECY-94-218, ``Proposed Policy Statement on the Use of 
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods in Nuclear Regulatory 
Activities.'' In SECY-94-218, the staff stated that an overall policy 
on the use of PRA in nuclear regulatory activities should be 
established so that the many potential applications of PRA can be 
implemented in a consistent and predictable manner that promotes 
regulatory stability and efficiency. In addition, the staff stated that 
the use of PRA technology in NRC regulatory activities should be 
increased. The increased use of PRA methods and technology is intended 
to complement and enhance deterministic-based regulations by using PRA 
technology in activities where methods and data are well understood. 
The staff believes the increased use of PRA technology would lead to 
improved risk-effective safety decisions and more focused and efficient 
use of NRC staff and industry resources.
    The Commission concludes that increased use of PRA techniques as an 
integral part of the regulatory decision-making process is now 
justified. Consequently, the Commission has proposed a policy to 
encourage the use of PRA and to expand the scope of PRA applications in 
nuclear regulatory matters to the extent supported by the state-of-the-
art methods and data. An important aspect of the expanded use of PRA 
technology would be a strengthening of NRC's defense-in-depth 
philosophy by helping to identify and address weaknesses or overly 
conservative regulatory requirements for the physical and functional 
barriers. In its Staff Requirements Memorandum of October 4, 1994, the 
Commission directed the staff to revise the proposed policy statement 
and publish the proposed policy statement for public comment. The 
proposed PRA Policy Statement is scheduled to be published in the 
Federal Register in November 1994 for a 60-day public comment period.
The PRA Implementation Plan

    The PRA Implementation Plan was developed in parallel with the 
Proposed PRA Policy Statement to ensure that the increased use of PRA 
methods and technology in nuclear regulatory activities would be 
implemented in a consistent and predictable manner that promotes 
regulatory stability and efficiency. This PRA Implementation Plan is a 
``living'' document that provides the framework for NRC management 
oversight of the use of PRA methods and technology in regulatory 
activities.
    As previously discussed, PRA methods have been applied successfully 
in numerous nuclear regulatory activities and have proven to be a 
valuable complement to deterministic engineering approaches. However, 
the increased use of PRA in nuclear regulatory activities has broad 
implications and could result in changes in many areas associated with 
our current regulatory framework. These areas, considered by the staff 
in developing the draft PRA Implementation Plan, may include: Changes 
to regulations, guidance documents and inspection programs, a 
substantial shift in staff resources including recruiting and training 
programs to provide the necessary PRA expertise, an increased emphasis 
on continued development of PRA methods and decision-making tools, and 
enhanced reliability data collection. As discussed in SECY-94-218, the 
expanded use of PRA in nuclear regulatory activities may raise 
additional policy, technical, and legal issues that will be considered 
in subsequent modifications to the PRA Implementation Plan.

Principal Issues Related to Increasing Use of Risk Assessment

    Four principal issues associated with applying risk assessment 
methods and techniques to regulatory applications are highlighted in 
the PRA Implementation Plan. These issues included development of 
regulatory decision-making criteria, collection and analysis of 
equipment and human performance data, development and use of consistent 
PRA models and methods, and development of a systemic PRA training 
program.
    To ensure consistent and appropriate decision-making that 
incorporates PRA methods and results, it is crucial that coherent and 
clear criteria are applied. As part of this plan, decision criteria 
will be established that address the interdependence of probabilistic 
risk and deterministic engineering principles. The process of 
developing these criteria will involve communications among the NRC, 
the nuclear industry, and the public to ensure an understanding by all 
parties of the role of PRA methods and results in NRC's risk management 
efforts.
    The NRC staff uses equipment performance data in the conduct of 
PRAs, reliability analyses, component failure studies, plant aging 
studies, identification and resolution of generic issues, preparation 
for inspections, and reviews of technical specifications change 
requests. For these purposes, the staff uses generic data supplemented 
with a limited amount of plant-specific data. The use of the generic 
data can be problematic because the data have not been verified or 
updated and do not differentiate between plant-to-plant variations in 
performance or changes in performance as reactor plants age. The ad hoc 
collection of plant-specific data is costly and inefficient.
    The availability of human performance data is even more 
problematic. One reason is the lack of established and accepted human 
performance analysis methods and models upon which to base the 
collection of human performance data. This is particularly important in 
the analysis of operator performance in response to events during which 
both acts of omission and commission may occur. Human reliability 
methods and data are currently the focus of research and limited 
evaluations of human performance issues raised by analysis of operating 
reactor events.
    As the NRC and the nuclear reactor industry move toward greater use 
of PRA, the need for better data on human performance, plant-specific 
safety system availability data (at the system train level), and 
equipment reliability data will be required to continue to increase the 
role of PRA in the regulatory decision-making process. Increased 
availability of data on equipment and human performance is very 
important to implementing many risk-based regulation initiatives. For 
example, this information is essential for implementing the maintenance 
rule and in supporting the development of risk-based technical 
specifications.
    The NRC staff recognizes the need to collect equipment and human 
performance data. This information, derived largely from operating 
experience, will continue to provide a source of credible performance 
data for NRC use in the regulatory process.
    The NRC PRA Working Group identified the need for the development 
and use of consistent PRA models and methods. Several tasks that are 
now being undertaken include the development of more user-friendly 
computer interfaces; the development of low-power and shutdown models, 
external events models, and Level 2/3 PRA models compatible with the 
needs of NRC events assessment staff; and the development of methods 
for consistently identifying the appropriate detailed PRA model for use 
in the analysis of individual events or issues.
    It is important to note that not all of the NRC's risk management 
activities lend themselves to a risk analysis approach that uses a 
probabilistic, fault free methodology. The NRC recognizes that a single 
approach to risk management is not appropriate. As part of the PRA 
Implementation Plan the NRC will develop and validate risk assessment 
models and methods.
    Another issue is the training of the staff who will not be directly 
working with PRA methods. As the NRC shifts to grater use of, and 
reliance on, PRA methods and risk-based regulation, all technical staff 
members, including inspectors, will need to develop an understanding of 
the strengths and weaknesses of PRA methods and their use. The PRA 
Implementation Plan includes an extensive training program. This 
training program is based on the systems approach to training, which 
includes completing job task analyses, developing learning objectives, 
developing and delivering courses, evaluating trainee mastery of 
objectives, and modifying the PRA training program as necessary. 
Because the number of NRC staff members who will need training is 
large, a large resource commitment over the next several years will be 
required.
    The PRA Implementation Plan will require users and developers of 
the new methods to have significant experience in PRA methods and 
statistics. It will take time for these staff members to gain the 
necessary experience. Some of the knowledge and skills needed to do 
this work can be obtained though traditional training. However, on-the-
job training, classroom instruction, and industrial experience will be 
needed in order to acquire some of the required knowledge and 
experience. Recruiting of outside experts and intensified development 
of current staff members will likely be necessary to gain this staff 
experience. This process will take several years to accomplish and will 
be a major factor in the success of the PRA Implementation Plan and in 
establishing the pace of its implementation.

II. Tentative Agenda

December 2, 1994

7:30 am  Registration
8:30 am  Introduction
8:45 am  PRA Policy Statement Overview (NRC)
9:15 am  Implementation Plan Overview (NRC)
10:00 am  Break
10:15 am  Industry Interactions (NRC/Industry)
11:45 am  Lunch
1:00 pm  Participant Presentations/Panel Discussion in Response to 
Participant Comments
2:45 pm  Break
3:00 pm  Participant Presentations/Panel Discussion in Response to 
Participant Comments (cont'd)
4:00 pm  Summary and Conclusions
4:30 pm  Adjourn
III. Workshop Content and Structure

    The workshop is structured to include NRC staff presentations 
during the morning and to allow interested parties to make 
presentations during the afternoon. An opportunity for questions and 
comments following presentations is planned.
    In the afternoon session, participants will be allowed to express 
their views and make presentations. Participants who will be making 
presentations will be scheduled in the order in which they notified the 
staff of their intention to make a presentation. Comments will be taken 
from parties in the order in which they notified the staff of their 
intent to comment. The order of comment will be:
    (1) Parties who notified the staff by November 28, 1994;
    (2) Parties registering to comment before 8:30 a.m. the day of the 
workshop; and
    (3) Parties who have not given prior notice.
    Organizations that notify the staff by November 28, 1994, of their 
intent to give a presentation will be limited to 20 minutes. Otherwise 
organization and individual presentations and comments will be limited 
to 5 minutes. These time limits may be adjusted depending on the number 
of presentations and comments. The workshop will be transcribed, and 
the transcript will be available in the NRC Public Document Room.
    To foster meaningful discussions during this session and to aid 
participants in preparing their presentations and comments, 
participants should consider the following set of questions:
     What additional areas should be considered regarding the 
increased use of PRA in regulatory applications?
     What areas currently in the PRA Implementation Plan 
require additional emphasis? What areas are emphasized too much?
     Is the overall impact of the PRA Policy Statement on 
regulatory activities clearly evident by the activities in the PRA 
Implementation Plan?
     What impact will the PRA Policy Statement and the PRA 
Implementation Plan have on those organizations that the NRC regulates?

    Dated in Rockville, Maryland, this 27th day of October 1994.

    For the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Edward J. Butcher,
Chief, Probabilistic Safety Assessment Branch, Office of Nuclear 
Reactor Regulation.
[FR Doc. 94-27125 Filed 11-1-94; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 7590-01-M