[Economic Report of the President (2011)] [Administration of Barack H. Obama] [Online through the Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov] Appendix A Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 2010 LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Washington, D.C., December 31, 2010 Mr. President: The Council of economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during calendar year 2010 in accordance with the requirements of the Congress, as set forth in section 10(d) of the employment Act of 1946 as amended by the Full employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. Sincerely, Austan Goolsbee, Chairman Cecilia Elena Rouse, Member COUNCIL MEMBERS AND THEIR DATES OF SERVICE Name Position Oath of office date Separation date Edwin G. Nourse Chairman August 9, 1946 November 1, 1949 Leon H. Keyserling Vice Chairman August 9, 1946 Acting Chairman November 2, 1949 Chairman May 10, 1950 January 20, 1953 John D. Clark Member August 9, 1946 Vice Chairman May 10, 1950 February 11, 1953 Roy Blough Member June 29, 1950 August 20, 1952 Robert C. Turner Member September 8, 1952 January 20, 1953 Arthur F. Burns Chairman March 19, 1953 December 1, 1956 Neil H. Jacoby Member September 15, 1953 February 9, 1955 Walter W. Stewart Member December 2, 1953 April 29, 1955 Raymond J. Saulnier Member April 4, 1955 Chairman December 3, 1956 January 20, 1961 Joseph S. Davis Member May 2, 1955 October 31, 1958 Paul W. McCracken Member December 3, 1956 January 31, 1959 Karl Brandt Member November 1, 1958 January 20, 1961 Henry C. Wallich Member May 7, 1959 January 20, 1961 Walter W. Heller Chairman January 29, 1961 November 15, 1964 James Tobin Member January 29, 1961 July 31, 1962 Kermit Gordon Member January 29, 1961 December 27, 1962 Gardner Ackley Member August 3, 1962 Chairman November 16, 1964 February 15, 1968 John P. Lewis Member May 17, 1963 August 31, 1964 Otto Eckstein Member September 2, 1964 February 1, 1966 Arthur M. Okun Member November 16, 1964 Chairman February 15, 1968 January 20, 1969 James S. Duesenberry Member February 2, 1966 June 30, 1968 Merton J. Peck Member February 15, 1968 January 20, 1969 Warren L. Smith Member July 1, 1968 January 20, 1969 Paul W. McCracken Chairman February 4, 1969 December 31, 1971 Hendrik S. Houthakker Member February 4, 1969 July 15, 1971 Herbert Stein Member February 4, 1969 Chairman January 1, 1972 August 31, 1974 Ezra Solomon Member September 9, 1971 March 26, 1973 Marina v.N. Whitman Member March 13, 1972 August 15, 1973 Gary L. Seevers Member July 23, 1973 April 15, 1975 William J. Fellner Member October 31, 1973 February 25, 1975 Alan Greenspan Chairman September 4, 1974 January 20, 1977 Paul W. MacAvoy Member June 13, 1975 November 15, 1976 Burton G. Malkiel Member July 22, 1975 January 20, 1977 Charles L. Schultze Chairman January 22, 1977 January 20, 1981 William D. Nordhaus Member March 18, 1977 February 4, 1979 Lyle E. Gramley Member March 18, 1977 May 27, 1980 George C. Eads Member June 6, 1979 January 20, 1981 Stephen M. Goldfeld Member August 20, 1980 January 20, 1981 Murray L. Weidenbaum Chairman February 27, 1981 August 25, 1982 William A. Niskanen Member June 12, 1981 March 30, 1985 Jerry L. Jordan Member July 14, 1981 July 31, 1982 Martin Feldstein Chairman October 14, 1982 July 10, 1984 William Poole Member December 10, 1982 January 20, 1985 Beryl W. Sprinkel Chairman April 18, 1985 January 20, 1989 Thomas Gale Moore Member July 1, 1985 May 1, 1989 Michael L. Mussa Member August 18, 1986 September 19, 1988 Michael J. Boskin Chairman February 2, 1989 January 12, 1993 John B. Taylor Member June 9, 1989 August 2, 1991 Richard L. Schmalensee Member October 3, 1989 June 21, 1991 David F. Bradford Member November 13, 1991 January 20, 1993 Paul Wonnacott Member November 13, 1991 January 20, 1993 Laura D'Andrea Tyson Chair February 5, 1993 April 22, 1995 Alan S. Blinder Member July 27, 1993 June 26, 1994 Joseph E. Stiglitz Member July 27, 1993 Chairman June 28, 1995 February 10, 1997 Martin N. Baily Member June 30, 1995 August 30, 1996 Alicia H. Munnell Member January 29, 1996 August 1, 1997 Janet L. Yellen Chair February 18, 1997 August 3, 1999 Jeffrey A. Frankel Member April 23, 1997 March 2, 1999 Rebecca M. Blank Member October 22, 1998 July 9, 1999 Martin N. Baily Chairman August 12, 1999 January 19, 2001 Robert Z. Lawrence Member August 12, 1999 January 12, 2001 Kathryn L. Shaw Member May 31, 2000 January 19, 2001 R. Glenn Hubbard Chairman May 11, 2001 February 28, 2003 Mark B. McClellan Member July 25, 2001 November 13, 2002 Randall S. Kroszner Member November 30, 2001 July 1, 2003 N. Gregory Mankiw Chairman May 29, 2003 February 18, 2005 Kristin J. Forbes Member November 21, 2003 June 3, 2005 Harvey S. Rosen Member November 21, 2003 Chairman February 23, 2005 June 10, 2005 Ben S. Bernanke Chairman June 21, 2005 January 31, 2006 Katherine Baicker Member November 18, 2005 July 11, 2007 Matthew J. Slaughter Member November 18, 2005 March 1, 2007 edward P. Lazear Chairman February 27, 2006 January 20, 2009 Donald B. Marron Member July 17, 2008 January 20, 2009 Christina D. Romer Chair January 29, 2009 September 3, 2010 Austan D. Goolsbee Member March 11, 2009 Chairman September 10, 2010 Cecilia Elena Rouse Member March 11, 2009 REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 2010 The Council of economic Advisers was established by the employment Act of 1946 to provide the President with objective economic analysis and advice on the development and implementation of a wide range of domestic and international economic policy issues. the Council consists of a Chairman and two members appointed by the President and confirmed by the United States Senate. THE CHAIR OF THE COUNCIL Austan d. Goolsbee, who had been a Member of the Council since 2009, was appointed Chairman of the Council on September 10, 2010. Chairman Goolsbee is on a leave of absence from the University of Chicago, where he is the Robert P. Gwinn Professor of economics at the Booth School of Business. He also served as the Chief economist and Staff Director of the President's economic Recovery Advisory Board for the duration of its existence from 2009 to 2011. The Chairman is a member of the President's Cabinet and is responsible for communicating the Council's views on economic matters directly to the President through personal discussions and written reports. Chairman Goolsbee represents the Council at the Presidential economic briefings, daily White House senior staff meetings, budget meetings, Cabinet meetings, a variety of inter-agency meetings, and meetings with the President, the Vice President, and other senior government officials. He also meets frequently with members of Congress as well as with business, academic and labor leaders to discuss ideas about the economy. Christina D. Romer resigned as Chair in September 2010 to return to the University of California, Berkeley, where she is the Class of 1957 -Garff B. Wilson Professor of economics. THE MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL Cecilia Elena Rouse was nominated by the President on January 20, 2009, confirmed by the Senate on March 10, and took her oath of office on March 11. Dr. Rouse is on a leave of absence from Princeton University, where she is the Theodore A. Wells '29 Professor of economics and Public Affairs. Dr. Rouse represents the Council at a wide variety of meetings and frequently attends meetings with the President and the Vice President. Dr. Rouse works closely with the Chairman on all issues before the Council, and especially on those related to labor, education, housing, and international trade. AREAS OF ACTIVITY Macroeconomic Policies A central function of the Council is to advise the President on all major macroeconomic issues and developments. the Council is actively involved in all aspects of macroeconomic policy. In 2010, the central macroeconomic issues included formulating targeted measures to spur job creation; evaluating the effects of the policies and the economy's response; reforming financial regulation; monitoring the financial and economic recovery; providing analysis on the economic effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; innovation and infrastructure; and setting priorities for the budget. the Council works closely with various government agencies, the Office of Management and Budget, the National economic Council, White House senior staff, and other officials. The Council prepares for the President, the Vice President, and the White House senior staff a daily economic briefing memo analyzing current economic developments, and almost-daily memos on key economic data releases. It also issues reports periodically on economic issues. The Council, the Department of Treasury, and the Office of Management and Budget--the Administration's economic ``troika''--are responsible for producing the economic forecasts that underlie the Administration's budget proposals. the Council initiates the forecasting process twice each year, consulting with a wide variety of outside sources, including leading private sector forecasters and other government agencies. The Council continued its efforts to improve the public's under- standing of economic developments and of the Administration's economic policies through briefings with the economic and financial press, discussions with outside economists, presentations to outside organizations, and regular updates on major data releases on the CEA blog. the Chairman and Members also regularly met to exchange views on the macroeconomy with the Chairman and Members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Microeconomic Policies Throughout the year, the Council was an active participant in the analysis and consideration of a broad range of microeconomic policy issues. As with macroeconomic policy, the Council works closely with other agencies and White House senior staff on these issues. Among the specific microeconomic issues that received particular attention in 2010 were unemployment insurance, health insurance reform, financial regulatory reform, housing finance, education, access to post-secondary education, small business lending, foreclosure mitigation and prevention, the role of cost-benefit analysis in regulatory policy, and the economic effects of the Gulf Coast oil spill. International Economic Policies The Council was involved in a range of international trade and finance issues, with a particular emphasis on the consequences of the international financial crisis and the related global economic slowdown. the Council was an active participant in discussions at global and bilateral levels. Council Members and staff regularly met with economists, policy officials, and government officials of other countries to discuss issues relating to the global economy and participated in the Strategic and economic Dialogue with China in May 2010. The Council was particularly active in examining policies that could help the global economy recover from the crisis. It carefully tracked world economic developments and considered the potential medium-run impacts of the current crisis. the Council's role also included policy development and planning for the G-20 Summits in Toronto and Seoul. The Council is a leading participant in the Organization for economic Cooperation and Development (OeCD), an important forum for economic cooperation among high-income industrial economies. the Council coordinated and oversaw the OeCD's review of the U.S. economy. Dr. Goolsbee is chairman of the OeCD's economic Policy Committee, and Council staff participates actively in working-party meetings on macroeconomic policy and coordination. On the international trade front, the Council was an active participant in the trade policy process, occupying a seat on the trade Policy Staff Committee and the trade Policy Review Group. the Council provided analysis and opinions on a range of trade-related issues involving the enforcement of existing trade agreements, reviews of current U.S. trade policies, and consideration of future policies. The Council was also an active participant on the trade Promotion Coordinating Committee, helping to examine the ways in which exports may support economic growth in the years to come. In the area of investment and security, the Council participated on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), examining individual cases before the committee. the Council also provided empirical analysis of the pending free trade agreement with Korea. THE STAFF OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS The staff of the Council consists of the senior staff, senior economists, staff economists, research assistants, analysts, and the administrative and support staff. the staff at the end of 2010 were: Senior Staff Senior staff play key managerial and analytical roles at the Council. They direct operations, perform central Council functions, and represent the Council in meetings with other agencies and White House offices. the executive Director oversees the research staff, as well as the development, drafting, and production of the Economic Report of the President. Executive Director Nan M. Gibson Chief of Staff Adam Hitchcock Chief Economist Jay C. Shambaugh Director of Macroeconomic Forecasting Director of Statistical Office Steven N. Braun Adrienne Pilot Senior Economists Senior economists are Ph.D. economists on leave from academic institutions, government agencies, or private research institutions. They participate actively in the policy process, represent the Council in interagency meetings, and have primary responsibility for the economic analysis and reports prepared by the Council, including this Report. Chad P. Bown ...................... International trade and Investment Aaron Chatterji ................... Entrepreneurship, Innovation Benjamin Jones .................... Macroeconomics, Innovation Lisa B. Kahn ...................... Labor, Education Arik Levinson ..................... Environment, Regulation Helen G. Levy ..................... Health Matthew Magura .................... Industrial Organization, Regulation Paul A. Smith ..................... Housing, tax, Budget, Retirement Staff Economists Staff economists are typically graduate students on leave from their Ph.D. training in economics. They conduct advanced statistical analysis, contribute to reports, and generally support the research and analysis mission of the Council. Sayeh S. Nikpay ........................ Health James O'Brien .......................... Energy, Environment Jamin D. Speer ......................... Labor, Education Reid B. Stevens ........................ Macroeconomics Owen Zidar ............................. Housing, Finance, Public Finance Research Assistants Research assistants are typically college graduates with significant coursework in economics. They conduct statistical analysis and data collection, and generally support the research and analysis mission of the Council. Both staff economists and research assistants contribute to this Report and play a crucial role in ensuring the accuracy of all Council documents. Ravi P. Deedwania .............. Health, Labor Nicholas W. Hagerty ............ Environment, Education, Infrastructure Kia J. McLeod .................. Macroeconomics, Housing, Innovation Pedro Spivakovsky-Gonzalez ..... International Economics Julia Hanna Yoo ................ Macroeconomics Statistical Office The Statistical Office gathers, administers, and produces statistical information for the Council. Duties include preparing the statistical appendix to the Economic Report of the President and the monthly publication Economic Indicators. The staff also creates background materials for economic analysis and verifies statistical content in Presidential memoranda. the Office serves as the Council's liaison to the statistical community. Brian A. Amorosi ............... Program Analyst Dagmara A. Mocala .............. Program Analyst Administrative Office The Administrative Office provides general support for the Council's activities. this includes financial management, ethics compliance, human resource management, travel, operations of facilities, security, information technology, and telecommunications management support. Rosemary M. Rogers ............. Administrative Officer Doris T. Searles ............... Information Management Specialist Office of the Chairman Meryl Holt ................. Special Assistant to the Chairman and Director of Strategic Initiatives Andres Bustamante .......... Special Assistant to the Member and Research Economist Eric Lesser ................ Director of Strategic Planning Staff Support Lisa D. Branch ............. Executive Assistant Sharon K. Thomas ........... Administrative Support Assistant Editorial Staff Brenda Szittya and Martha Gottron were the editors, and Andres Bustamante provided research and editorial assistance in the preparation, of the 2011 Economic Report of the President. Interns Student interns provide invaluable help with research projects, day-to-day operations, and fact-checking. Interns during the year were: Matthew L. Aks; Ian R. Appel; Michael D. Arena; Laura I. Blum; Kathleen A. Choi; Greg D. Dyer; Kenneth Friede; Benjamin J. Gettinger; David S. Gobaud; Max R. Harris; Michael P. Hupp; Peter L. Kerkhof; Michael C. Levinson; Devin K. Mattson; Joshua Porter; Ceron J. Rhee; NaYoung Rim; and Cole L. Scandaglia. DEPARTURES IN 2010 Andrew Metrick left his position as Chief economist of the Council in July to return to Yale University, where he is the Deputy Dean for Faculty Development and Theodore Nierenberg Professor of Corporate Finance in the Yale School of Management. Michael B. Greenstone, Chief economist of the Council until January, returned to the Massachusetts Institute of technology, where he is the 3M Professor of environmental economics. The senior economists who resigned (with the institutions to which they returned after leaving the Council in parentheses) were: Elizabeth O. Ananat (Duke University); Christopher D. Carroll (Johns Hopkins University); Mark G. Duggan (University of Maryland, College Park); W. Adam Looney (Brookings Institution); Jesse M. Rothstein (Department of Labor; University of California, Berkeley); and Ann Wolverton (Environmental Protection Agency). The staff economists who departed were Sharon e. Boyd; Gabriel Chodorow-Reich; Laura J. Feiveson; Joshua K. Goldman; Sarena F. Goodman; Joshua K. Hausman; Zachary D. Liscow; William G. Woolston; and Jacqueline T. Yen. those who served as research assistants at the Council and departed were Peter N. Ganong, Clare M. Hove, and Michael P. Shapiro. C. Bennett Blau and Gabrielle A. Elul served as staff assistants. Archana A. Snyder left her position as Financial Officer to join the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as Financial Management Analyst. Julia B. Siegel was Special Assistant to the Chair and resigned to join the Office of Management and Budget as Confidential Assistant. PUBLICATIONS OF THE COUNCIL The Council's annual Economic Report of the President is an important vehicle for presenting the Administration's domestic and international economic policies. It is available for purchase through the Government Printing Office and is viewable on the Internet at www.gpoaccess.gov/eop. The Council prepared numerous reports in 2010, and the Chairman and Members gave numerous public speeches and testified to Congress. The reports, texts of speeches, and written statements accompanying testimony are available at the Council's website, www.whitehouse.gov/cea. Finally, the Council publishes the monthly Economic Indicators, which is available on-line at www.gpo.gov/economicindicators.