Nutrient trends and land use changes in selected watersheds in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

NUTRIENT TRENDS AND
LAND USE CHANGES IN
SELECTED WATERSHEDS
IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN

SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION

RESOURCE QUALITY MANAGEMENT & PROTECTION DIVISION

DECEMBER 1987

Edwards, Robert E. (Robert Edwards)

NUTRIENT TR ENDS AND LAND USE CHANGES
IN SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN

Prepared By:

Robert E. Edwards
Environmental Specialist

and

Edmond E. Seay
Staff Economist

Us Department of Commerce
NOAA Central Service Center Library
22 South HObson Avenue

Charleston, SC 29405-2413

SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION
1721 North Front Street
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17102-2391

Publication No. 112

THIS PROJECT HAS BEEN FINANCED, ON A COST SHARING BASIS,
WITH FEDERAL FUNDS FROM THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ADMINISTRATION SECTION 309 COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT GRANT, AWARD
NUMBER NA-85-AA-H-CZ136, THE CONTENTS DO NOT NECESSARILY
REFLECT THE VIEWS AND POLICIES OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT 1

INTRODUCTION ............................................. 2

Purpose and Scope ................................... 2

Location and EXtent of Area .......................... 3

Location ....................................... 3
Social and Economic Features ................... 4
Climate ........................................ 5
Terrain ........................................ 5

methodology ......................................... 8

Water Quality Procedures ....................... 9
Limitations of Water Quality Data .............. 13
Land Use Procedures ............................ 15
Limitations of Land Use Data ................... 19

Previous Investigations ............................. 20

HISTORICAL LAND USE CHANGES .............................. 22

Population ........................................... 22

Urban-Rural Trends .................................. 23

Land in Farms ....................................... 25

Livestock and Poultry Inventories ................... 28

Animal Waste Production ............................. 32

Topography and Ground Cover ......................... 35

Total Cash Receipts By Farmers ...................... 37

WATER QUALITY TRENDS & LAND USE .......................... 38

Cumberland County & Conodoguinet Creek
Yellow Breeches Creek Watersheds .................. 38

Analysis of Water Quality Data ................. 43
Conodoguinet Creek Watershed .............. 43
Yellow Breeches Creek Watershed ........... 47
Assessment ..................................... 49

TABLE OF CONTENTS
(Continued)

Page

Dauphin County & Swatara Creek watershed ............ 52

Analysis of Water Quality Data ................. 55
Swatara Creek Watershed ................... 55
Assessment ..................................... 58

Lancaster County & Conestoga River Watershed ........ 59

Analysis of Water Quality Data ................. 63
Conestoga River Watershed ................. 63
Assessment ..................................... 68

Perry County & Shermans Creek Watershed ............. 69

Analysis of Water Quality Data ................. 70
Shermans Creek Watershed .................. 70
Assessment ..................................... 73

York and Adams Counties & West Conewago Creek
and Codorus Creek Watersheds ....................... 74

County Summaries ............................... 74
York County ............................... 74
Adams County .............................. 75
watershed Summaries ............................ 76
West Conewago Creek ....................... 77
Codorus Creek ............................. 79
Analysis of Water Quality Data ................. 81
West Conewago Creek Watershed ............. 81
Codorus Creek Watershed ................... 84
Assessment ..................................... 88

CONCLUSIONS .............................................. 92

REFERENCES ............................................... 97

APPENDIX ................................................. 101

LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table

1 Water Quality Sampling Site Location ............... 9

2 Economic Activities Considered to Generate
Nutrients ......................................... 17

3 Urban And Rural Population For Selected Counties:
1950-80 .......................................... 24

4 Compound Average Annual Rates of Population
Growth From 1950 to 1980 ......................... 25

5 Manure Production and Nutrient Content as
Produced ....................................... 33

6 Proportion of Land Area That Is Forested, And
Cropland Suitability Ratio ....................... 36

7 Cash Receipts Prom Sale of Agricultural Products,
By County In 1984 ................................ 37

8 Conodoguinet Creek Watershed Public Sewage Treatment
Facilities ....................................... 41

9 Yellow Breeches Creek Watershed Public Sewage
Treatment Facilities ............................. 42

10 Trend Testing Results Based on Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Stations WQN0213 And WQN0240 ............. 44

11 Trend Testing Results Based on Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Station WQN0212 .......................... 48

12 Swatara Creek Watershed Public Sewage Treatment
Facilities ....................................... 54

13 Swatara Creek Watershed Industries Considered
Nutrient Generators .............................. 55

14 Trend Testing Results Based on Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Station WQN0211 .......................... 57

15 Conestoga River Watershed Public Sewage Treatment
Facilities ....................................... 62

16 Conestoga River Watershed Industries Considered
Nutrient Generators .............................. 62

LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table Page

17 Trend Testing Results Based On Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Stations WQN0205 And WQN0231 ............. 65

18 Trend Testing Results Based on Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Station WQN0243 .......................... 72

19 Conewago Creek Watershed Public Sewage Treatment
Facilities ....................................... 78

20 Codorus Creek Watershed Public Sewage Treatment
Facilities ....................................... 80

21 Codorus Creek Watershed Industries Considered
Nutrient Generators .............................. 81

22 Trend Testing Results Based on Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Station WQN0210 .......I ................... 83

23 Trend Testing Results Based on Seasonal Kendall's
Tau For Stations WQN0207 And WQN0209 ............. as

LIST OF FIGURES

Page

Figure

1 Location of Study Area (Watersheds) .................. 4

2 Physiographic Sections in the Lower Susquehanna River
Basin ............................................. 6

3 Location of Study Area (Counties) .................... 18

4 Population Trends ................................... 22

5 Total Farmland Area ................................. 27

6 Cattle And Calves -- End Of Year Inventory .......... 30

7 Hogs And Pigs -- End Of Year Inventory .............. 31

8 Laying Age Hens -- End of Year Inventory ............ 31

9 Broilers -- End Of Year Inventory ................... 32

10 Total manure Produced By All Species ................ 33

11 Manure Concentration Ratio .......................... 35

ABSTRACT

Monthly water quality data from ten stations in seven

watersheds of the Lower Susquehanna River Basin were analyzed for

trends in total phosphorus, total ammonia-nitrogen, total

nitrite-nitrogen, total nitrate-nitrogen, and total inorganic

nitrogen, concentrations and loads. Changes in land use

activities in six counties were also investigated to make land

use/nutrient trend comparisons. Based on the relationship

between water quality trends and land use changes, a majority of

the streams in the study area are affected, by nonpoint sources of

nutrients. The presence of point source contributions of

nutrients is suggested where decreasing trends in total

phosphorus occurred at a time of municipal sewage treatment plant

(STP) installations and upgrades.

INTRODUCTION

The Chesapeake Bay Program (1982) (CBP) cites data that

indicate the Bay received increased nutrient loads between 1950

and 1980. In July 1950, there were no anoxic waters and only a

limited area of low dissolved oxygen (DO) in the main stem of the

Bay. In the 1960's, anoxia occurred from mid-June to mid-August,

while in 1980, it began during the first week in May and

continued into September. This decrease in Do is believed to be

caused by a concurrent increase in nutrient loading. The

tributary rivers are believed to be major contributors of

nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the Bay (CBP, 1982).

Purpose and Scope

The purpose of this study is to determine if and why trends

in nutrien t concentrations and loadings exist for tributaries in

the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. This will be done for

watersheds which have sufficient existing data available. The

scope of this study is twofold. First, trends in nutrient

concentrations and loads in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin

will be assessed for the time period 1973 - 1986. Secondly,

changes in land use from 1969 to 1982 in selected counties of the

Lower Susquehanna River Basin will be examined to see if causal

relationships between land use and nutrient concentrations and

loadings can be determined.

Information about the causes for trends in nutrient loads is

vital to resource managers. It is also very difficult

information to obtain. Establishing causality in a definitive

way is no simple matter, given the complex interactions arising

from man's activities on the land. This investigation is not

intended to "point the finger" at particular causes of trends,

but rather to explore the nutrient trend relationships of

dif ferent watersheds to changes in man's activities that may

impact water quality.

In order to assess trends in water quality, knowledge of the

physical features of the land and the influence of man's

activities on the land is important in understanding the

relationships of the processes that directly or indirectly affect

water quality.

Location and Extent of Area

Location

The area discussed in this report (see Figure 1) encompasses

a portion of the drainage area of the Main Stem Susquehanna River

from Duncannon, Pennsylvania, downstream to the confluence of

Conestoga River. The major tributaries along this reach include:

Sherman Creek, Conodoguinet Creek, Yellow Breeches Creek, Swatara

Creek, Conewago Creek, Codorus Creek, and Conestoga River. This

portion of the basin covers an area of approximately 2,800 square

miles in south-central Pennsylvania. All or most of Cumberland,

Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, and York Counties along with

portions of Adams, Berks, Chester, Franklin, and Schuylkill

Counties are included.

CON 0006LOX4
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AV 46

PENNS'YL-VANIA
MARYLAND

WATER QUALITY STATIONS

FIGURE 1. LOCATION OF STUDY AREA (WATERSHEDS)

Social and Economic Features

Population concentrations in the region are located near the

geographic centers of each county. The largest cities.in the
subbasin, in descending order of size.are Lancaster, Harrisburg,

York, and Lebanon. Although south-central Pennsylva nia has a

significant population employed in government-related and

industrial activities, agriculture is an important economic.,

activity throughout the rural parts of the region. Some of the

,most productive agricultural counties in the Susquehanna River

Basin are Lancaster, York, Lebanon, and Cumberland (Dept. of

Environmental Resources, 1980).

Climate

The Lower Susquehanna River Basin is dominated by a Humid

Continental type climate. The atmospheric conditions within the

basin are primarily controlled by pressure systems traveling

eastward from the Central Plains of the United States. Storms

developing along the -southeastern coast.. of the United States

periodically bring moderate to heavy precipitation to the basin

as moist air masses are forced upward over higher terrain.

Annual precipitation over the study area averages 41 inches.

Normal monthly precipitation totals range from a minimum of 2.6

inches in February to a maximum of 4.3 inches in August (Dept. of

Environmental Resources, 1980).

Terrain

The study area includes six physiographic sections (see

Figure 2) resulting from a diversity of rock types and structural

settings. The physiography of each section has influenced the

types of soil formed in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin as

described in the following paragraphs.

The northern portion of the study area lies within the

Appalachian mountain Section of the Ridge and valley

physiographic province. The soils of this section generally

formed from weathered noncarbonate sedimentary rocks. Slopes

vary from 3 to 35 percent with soils having a slow infiltration

rate and moderate runoff.

BOUNDMES PA.
PWSOGRAPMC X05
WO
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aAY

FIGURE 2 - PHYSIOGRAPHIC SECTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSqUEHANNA RIVER BASIN

The Great Valley Section of the Ridge and valley province is

south of the Appalachian Mountain Section. The Great Valley

Section contains two main types of soilas on slopes that vary from

0 to 25 percent. Soils in the northern portions of the valley

are formed from noncarbonate shales and in the south the soils

are formed from dolomites and limestones. These soils have low

to moderate infiltration rates, but the rates are notably slower

in the northern portion of the valley (Dept- of Environmental

Resources, 1980).

The South mountain Section of the Blue Ridge Province lies

in the southwestern portion of the basin and contains some of the

oldest rocks in the study area. Here, the soils are formed from

igneous and metamorphic rocks, and the slopes range between 3 and

20 percent. These soils generally have a moderate infiltration

rate with moderate runoff.

The Triassic Lowlands Section of the Piedmont Province

contains soils that formed from red shales and sandstones locally

intruded by diabase. These soils have moderate to slow

infiltration rates depending on the nature of the parent

material.

The region just south of the Triassic Lowlands Section is

the Conestoga valley Section. The fertile soil of this section

formed from the highly folded and faulted substratum of limestone

and dolomite. The presence of sinkholes and soils with moderate

infiltration rates allows the surface water to quickly enter the

ground water system. The 0 to 15 percent slopes in this section

indicates the flatness of the terrain.

Finally, the Piedmont Uplands Section comprises the southern,

portion of the basin. The extremely complex structure of the

metamorphosed sedimentary rocks with some igneous rocks forms the

parent material of the soils in this section. These deep soils

have a moderate infiltration rate with slopes of 0 to 20 percent.

Methodology

Generally, water quality data are affected by seasonal or

cyclic effects, an episodic or regular effect, a long-term

monotonic trend, and random noise (Bauer and others, 1984).

Statistical tests aid in separating out these effects and

identifying trends. Statistical tests are classified as either

parametric or non-parametric. Parametric tests require knowledge

of the underlying probability distribution of the random

variable. Most tests assume that the variable is normally

distributed. Non-parametric tests do not make any assumption

about the distribution of the variable. Non-parametric

techniques were utilized in this study because the underlying

probability distribution of water quality variables was not

known. The non-parametric test for trends utilized in this

investigation is a form of Kendall's Tau (1975). A statistical

procedure called the Seasonal Kendall's Tau test (Hirsch and

others, 1982) was utilized to detect the presence or absence of a

trend in nutrient concentrations and loads. If a trend was

statistically detected, a visual inspection. of the time series

plot sometimes showed a monotonic or step trend. A monotonic

trend in nutrient concentrations or load may be indicative of

process changes in the delivery of nutrients from nonpoint

sources whereas a non-monotonic trend such as a step trend may be

indicative of a response from a change in point source inputs.

Results of the trend analysis were then compared to historic

changes in man's activities to gain a better understanding of the

effect of land use activity on water quality. The procedures for

determining water quality trends and land use changes are

discussed below.

water Quality Procedures

Trend analyses were performed for selected stations on

tributaries of the lower Susquehanna River. The Water Quality

Network (WQN) and USGS gaging stations in Pennsylvania provided

the best sources of long term nutrient and discharge data.

Stations selected for analysis are listed in Table 1.

TABLE 1

WATER QUALITY SAMPLING SITE LOCATION.

----------------------------------------------------
STATION* WATERSHED LATITUDE/LONGITUDE

----------------------------------------------------
WQN0243 Sherman Creek 402249/770456
WQN0240 Conodoguinet Creek 401638/765700
WQN0213 Conodoguinet Creek 401536/770611
WQN0212 Yellow Breeches Creek 401327/765138
WQN0210 West Conewago Creek 400452/764307
WQN0207 Codorus Creek 400037/764237
WQN0209- Codorus Creek 395514/764457
WQN0205 Conestoga Creek 400300/761639
WQN0231 Conestoga Creek 395741/762158
WQN0211 Swatara Creek 401128/764352

-----------------------------------------------------
as identified in EPA's STORET system.

In order to analyze the data statistically, several steps

were completed to review and reformat the data:

1. WQN nutrient data and USGS flow data were extracted from

the data bases of the National Computer Center (NCC) for

the period of 1970-1986.

2. Because the Seasonal Kendall Test requires one

observation per month, multiple observations for any one

month were removed so that only one observation

remained. The earliest date containing nutrient data

was selected as the monthly observation, while

observations later in the month were deleted.

3. If a month contained no observations, the month was

ignored. Missing values do not present computational

problems with the seasonal Kendall Tau test (Hirsch and

Others, 1982).

4. From this 1970-1986 data set, a period of record was

selected based on the completeness of data collection.

For example, if nitrate data were not collected before

1973, the period of record selected for the trend

analysis would be 1973-1986.

5. The parameters investigated were based on the data

available in STORET and included the following:

Phosphorus, Total (TP)
Ammonia ' Total (NH3-N+NH 4-N)
Nitrite 'Total (NO 2-N)
Nitrate, Total (NO 3-N)
Nitrite + Nitrate, Total (NO -N+NO -N)
Nitrogen, Total Inorganic (IRORG-NI

After reviewing the data, time series plots and descriptive

statistics of the parameters for each station were prepared. The

plots permitted visual inspection of the data for obvious trends.

The tables presented the magnitudes, averages, and variability of

the concentration and transport (load) data. Upon completion of

the plots and tables, the Seasonal Kendall trend test procedure

was applied to the water quality data.

The Seasonal Kendall Test is a rank correlation test and is

described in Bauer and others (1984), Hirsch and others (1982),

and Smith and others (1980). It has been applied to total

phosphorus data collected at stations in the National Stream

Quality Accounting Network (Smith and others, 1980). Hirsch

(.1982) demonstrated that the testing techniques do not require

complete records and that missing values or values less than the

limit of detection present no computational or theoretical

problem for application of the test. The Seasonal Kendall Test

is different from the Kendall Test in that the test is applied to

data from the same month of different years of record, thus

minimizing the problem of seasonality.

The concentration and load records were checked for trends

using the Seasonal Kendall Test. When a significant trend was

detec ted for either concentration or load for any parameter, the

relationship between the parameter concentration and mean daily

discharge was estimated, using regression techniques and the

following functions of discharge: linear (Q), logarithmic
(Loglo(Q)), inverse (1/Q), and the square root (Q 0.5 ). The
relationship which had the highest coefficient of determination

was selected to determine the expected value of concentration at

the mean flow value, provided that the slope of the equation was

significantly different from zero at the 10% level, based on

Student's t Test. Then the actual minus the expected

concentration was computed' using the selected equation. If the

discharge-versus-concentration relationship was significant, the

Seasonal Kendall Tau procedure was applied to these flow-

adjusted-concentrations (FACs) to determine whether the trends

were due to trends in flow. Two different levels of significance

of the relationship between concentration and discharge were

defined. If the significance level, alpha, was less than 0.01,

the regression was considered highly significant. If the

significance level, alpha, was less than 0.1 but greater than

0.01, the relationship was considered significant.

The Seasonal Kendall Test on the residuals (FACs) determines

whether it is likely that the trend in concentration is due to

changes in the delivery of nutrients to the stream (point or

nonpoint) or to change in flow. If the Seasonal Kendall Test on

FACs shows a significant trend, the trend in either concentration

or load is considered to be due to processes other than flow.

In summary, the procedure for detection of water quality

trends calls for testing three time series: concentration,

transport (load), and flow-adjusted-concentrations (FAC) for each

station. Trends in concentration indicate probable changes in

the quality of water for the period of record investigated.

Trends in load indicate probable changes in nutrients being

transported. Trends in FAC show whether trends in concentration

or load are due to changes in streamflow, or other changes in

processes which provide nutrients to the stream. Analyzing all

three trends at a station can lead to a better understanding of

the causes of the trends (Hirsch and Others, 1982).

Limitations of Water Quality Data

In order to reliably assess trends in water quality, data

must be collected at a given location using consistent collection

and laboratory techniques over a number of years (Hirsch and

others, 1982, p. 107). If sampling methods or analytical

techniques change over the period of record, then apparent trends

in water quality may be the result of such inconsistencies rather

than any change in the water quality characteristics of the

stream.

Data utilized in this assessment are based on available data

collected by other agencies. Limitation in the use of available

data include: (1) inconsistencies of sampling techniques between

various agencies results in some degree of noncomparability

between data sets; (2) the short period of record at many

sampling sites limits selection of stream stations; (3) important

ancillary data such as stream flow were not always collected when

chemical analyses were made; and (4) some stream sampling sites
were not ideally'located for the purposes of this study.

It would have been desirable to combine the information from

the various agencies that collect water data in order to

construct a more complete record of water quality.

Unfortunately, the data sets could not be merged because

collection techniques differed between the principal sampling

agencies. There is one additional limitation in the available

13 -

data. If water quality data are to represent the entire stream

segment, then horizontally and vertically integrated samples are

desirable. The data analyzed in this study were from grab

samples which often do not adequately represent the entire cross-

section of a stream.

The amount of water quality data needed for statistical

analyses depends on the frequency of collection and the period of

seasonality considered (Bauer, 1984, p. 10). A very short record

may not contain enough data to distinguish a trend from inherent

cycles in the data. The time series should cover two full cyclic

periods; therefore, an absolute minimum of 24 data points would

be needed to cover the seasonal effect on data collected at a

monthly f requency. on the other hand, the use of long records

may mask trends lasting only a few years. Smith and others

(1980) used 5- to 8-year time series of data collected on a

monthly frequency. Based on the above criteria a minimum record

of seven years of monthly samples was decided upon. Ten stations

within seven watersheds met the criteria and were selected (Table

1) for trend analysis.

Ideally, the collection of ancillary data such as

instantaneous discharge at the time of sample collection is

desirable so that some variations in concentration values may be

explained by flow. while monthly data collection was consistent

at.most stations investigated in this assessment, discharge data

were incomplete. Discharge data associated with the concentration

record often were reported as instantaneous discharge for a short

period of time, were then@ reported as mean daily discharge f rom

the closest U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station, and f inally

not reported at all. The only discharge data reported on a

regular schedule came f rom. USGS stations. Since USGS discharge

information provided the only source of consistent flow data and

was- readily available in annual reports, mean daily flow data

were utilized to build a transport record and incorporated in the

flow-adjustment-concentration procedure.

Land Use Procedures

In order to make meaningful land use/nutrient trend

comparisons and identify significant relationships, data must be

collected on historic changes in man's activities that may have

an influence on water quality trends. Nutrient inputs include

contributions from sewage treatment plants, industrial waste

discharges, and agricultural activities. Knownchanges in these

nutrient inputs can then be compared to time-series plots of

nutrient concentrations and loads from each water quality

station.

An inventory of point source inputs was obtained from a

treatment plant and discharge point report generated from a data

base maintained by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental

Resources, Bureau of Water Quality Manageme nt. This report

provided a substantial amount of information concerning design

average flow, level of treatment, location, NPDES permit number,

and a sequence of waste treatment processes for industriall

municipal (public), and non-public dischargers. The sequence of

waste treatment processes provided information on whether

dischargers had nitrification or phosphate removal processes in

operation. Municipal sewage treatment plants (STPs) installing

nitrification processes in the treatment operation convert the

unstable forms of nitrogen (ammonia and nitrite) to a more stable

form (nitrate). Therefore, a change in nitrate-nitrogen

concentrations would be expected in the stream. A reduction in

phosphorus would be expected if coagulation and flocculation

processes were utilized in the operation. However, the report

did not provide information about treatment plant upgrades or the

construction of new treatment plants. This information was

retrieved from EPA's Grants Information & Control System (GICS)

that listed municipal dischargers receiving grants. for the

construction of new wastewater treatment systems, dischargers

receiving grants for modifications of existing systems, the

completion dates of projects, and, sometimes, the initiation date

of plant operations.

A list was compiled of industries located in each watershed.

only those types of industrial activities with the potential to

discharge nutrients were identified in each watershed. The

Chesapeake Bay Program (1982, p. 193-196) identified those

economic activities considered to be nutrient generators and

provided a list of those economic activities by the Standard

Industrial Classification (SIC) system. The SIC code was

16 -

utilized to locate potential nutrient generating industries in

the study area. Table 2 lists the nutrient concentrations for

SIC groups of industries located in the study area. The nutrient

concentrations are estimates for industrial groups and may or may

not apply to the specific firms listed in further sections of

this report.

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES CONSIDERED
TO GENERATE NUTRIENTS*

-----------------------------------------------------------------
SIC INDUSTRY TKN TP
GROUP TYPE mg/l mg/l

-----------------------------------------------------------------
2016 Poultry Processing 7.7
2026 Fluid Milk 61.2 10.8
2034, Dried Fruit & Vegetables 18.0 190.8
2035 Pickled Fruit & vegetables 18.0 190.8
2077 Animal oil Manufacturing 7.1
2813 Industrial organic Chemicals 3.6 0.18
2879 Pesticide & Agricultural Chemicals 0.85 19.2
3411 Metal Can Manufacturing 1.15 0.35
3471 Coating, Engraving & Allied Services 1.15 0.35
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TKN - Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen; TP - Total Phosphorus
*(After CBP, 1982 p. 193-196)

To compare changes in water quality parameters over time

with the intensity of land use, the assumption was made that

urbanization, decreases in cropland harvested, and increases in

livestock populations--cattle, hogs and poultry--represented

intensification of use. Under these assumptions, population

trends, changes in size of the non-farm population, and

information from the agricultural censuses represent changes in

land use. Although information by subbasin or watershed would

17 -

have been preferred, because of the available data sources used,

the unit of analysis was the county. The area of interest was

defined as the following counties in the Commonwealth of

Pennsylvania (see Figure 3):

Adams Lancaster

Cumberland Perry

Dauphin York

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Lyman" "ce
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----STATE BOUNDARY
---COUNTY BOUNDARY
-EFRIVER BASIN BOUNDARY
STUDY AREA

FIGURE 3. LOCATION OF STUDY AREA (COUNTIES)
lot"

This area contains all of the York and Lancaster

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's) and approximately three-

quarters of the Harrisburg-Carlisle-Lebanon MSA.

Limitations of Land Use Data

Ideally, land use data having the following characteristics

would have been used in the analysis:

1. The total land area is divided into major land use

categories such as:

Urban Land Wooded Land

Cropland other Land

Pasture

2. Land use data are available for all geographic areas of

interest for at least three fairly evenly spaced points

in time during the period 1970 to 1985.

3. The definitions of land uses are consistent from one

time period to the next.

4. Land use data are available by hydrologic area, e.g.,

the Conestoga River watershed.

Not unexpectedly no single data series was found that met

all of the criteria. An available data set having the desired

land use categories was limited to three of the six counties of

interest. The only other data set with explicit land use

categories had both time frame and consistency of definition

problems. At that point, it was concluded that a meaningful

analysis based on land use grouping per se was not possible. Data

19 -

from. the censuses of population and agriculture were used
instead. Previous Investigations

Past water,. quality assessments from other investigators

provide useful insights on problems or problem areas affecting

surface water quality. Past assessments of the Lower Susquehanna

River Basin by Takita (1977) and PA Bureau of Water Quality

Management (1975, 1977, 1980, 1982, and 1986) indicate areas of

point and nonpoint sources of pollution.

Takitals (1977) investigation showed that in the

Conodoguinet Creek and the Yellow Breeches Creek phosphorus,

ammonia, and nitrate-nitrogen came primarily from point sources

while in West Conewago Creek, South Branch Codorus Creek, and

Conestoga River. the same nutrients generally came from nonpoint

sources. Takita .(1977) also concluded that the West Conewago

Creek and Conestoga River were the greatest contributors of

nitrate-nitrogen of the fourteen watersheds investigated.

Although the West Conewago Creek had the greatest loadings of

ammonia and phosphorus, the highest concentrations of nutrients

were recorded in the Conestoga River.

Several water quality assessments have been completed by the

PA DER, Bureau of water Quality Management. The latest,

"Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 1986 Water Quality Assessment",

indicates that agricultural and mining activities were the major

causes of stream degradation in the lower Susquehanna River

20 -

region. Stream degradation due to mining activities was limited

primarily to the head waters of the Swatara Creek watershed.

Intense agricultural activity including excessive application of

fertilizers and manure management problems due to density of

livestock appeared to be the main source of nutrient enrichment

of surface water. The Conestoga River, Mill Creek, and South

Branch Codorus Creek were identified as some of the streams most

affected by agricultural activities.

Stream segments in certain watersheds also receive nutrients

from point sources. The lower reach of Codorus Creek, South

Branch Codorus Creek, lower reach Conestoga Creek, Conodoguinet

Creek from Letterkenny Reservoir to the mouth, Swatara Creek from

Lorberry Creek to the mouth, Little Conewago, and South Branch

West Conewago all receive the discharges from waste treatment

plants. Moreover, these areas are all growing at rates at or

above the Pennsylvania state average.

HISTORICAL LAND USE CHANGES

Population

The study area is increasing in population at a rate that

far exceeds that of the state as a whole. In the decade 1970-80,

the state's population increased by only one-half of one percent.

By contrast, the population increases in the six counties of the

study area ranged from 3.9 percent to 24.8 percent, averaging

12. 3 percent. Population trends for each county are shown in

Figure 4.

1950 1960 1970, 1980

400000

350000

300000

T
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
A.DAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER PERRY YORK

Figure 4. Popiflation. Trends

Urban-Rural Trends

Pennsylvania has the largest rural population--farm and

nonf arm--of any state in the nation. More than 3.6 million of

its inhabitants were so classified in the 1980 census.

Since 1950, the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1971) has defined

"urban population" in the following manner:

II[T]he urban population consists of all persons living
in (a) places of 2,500 inhabitants or more
incorporated as cities, villages, boroughs, and
towns ... (b) unincorporated places of 2,500 inhabitants
or more ... The population not classified as urban
constitutes the rural population."

An urban-rural breakdown of the county and state population

for the last four censuses is given in Table 3. Since the

counties of interest are all part of metropolitan statistical

areas, it seems likely that major population growth would have

occurred in the urban areas. Table 3 shows a more complex

pattern. While exceptions are apparent among the individual

counties, the six county totals are consistent with the following

observations:

a. The fifties were the time of the "baby boom" generation,

with large population increases nearly everywhere;

b. The sixties saw the major moves to nearby, i.e.,

"urban", townships, causing urban growth to greatly

exceed that in rural townships;

c. The seventies were the decade of migration to the more

distant smaller and rural townships, occasioned by

improved transportation and the lack of space in nearby

mom w m WE m

TABLE 3.

URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONSIFOR SELECTED COUNTIES: 1950-80

POPULATION'DENSITY
COUNTY/STATE POPULATION PERCENT CHANGE 1980
----------------- ---------------------------------------- ----------------------------- -----------------
1950 1960 1970 1980 50-60 60-70 70-80 (Persons/Sq.mi.)

ADAMS
URBAN 12191 13555 13074 12828 11.19 -3.55 -1.88
RURAL 32006 38351 43863 55464 19.82 14.37 26.45
TOTAL 44197 51906 56937 68292 17.44 9.69 19.94 131

CUMBERLAND
URBAN 54854 73727' 105202 111201 34.41 42.69 5.70
RURAL 39603 51089 52975 67340 29.00 3.69 27.12
TOTAL 94457 124816 158177 178541 32.14 26.73 12.87 326

DAUPHIN
URBAN 153991 169374 167857 173668 9.99 -0.90 3.46
RURAL 43793 50881 55977 58649 16.19 10.02 4.77
TOTAL 197784 220255 223713 232317 11.36 1.57 3.85 440

LANCASTER
URBAN 115805 137892 173573 197766 19.07 25.88 13.94
RURAL 118912 140467 146120 164580 18.13 4.02 12.63
TOTAL 234717 278359 319693 362346 18.59 14.85 13.34 381

PERRY
URBAN 2158 2580 2328 2452 19.56 -9.77 5.33
RURAL 22624 24002 26287 33266 6.09 9.52 26.55
TOTAL 24782 26582 28615 35718 7.26 7.65 24.82 64

YORK
URBAN 107272 128870 152477 159791 20.13 18.32 4.80
RURAL 95465 109466 120126 153172 14.67 9.74 27.51
TOTAL 202737 238336 272603 312963 17.56 14.38 14.81 345

SIX COUNTY TOTALS
URBAN 446271 525998 614511 657706 17.87 16.83 7.03
RURAL 352403 414256 445348 532471 17.55 7.51 19.56
TOTAL 798674 940254 1059738 1190177 17.73 12.71 12.31 297

PENNSYLVANIA
URBAN 7403036 8102051 8436379 8220851 9.44 4.13 -2.55
.RURAL 3094976 -32173115 3357512 3643044 3.95 4.36 8.50
TOTAL 10498012 11319366 11800766 11863895 7.82 4.25 0.53 264

towns. The central cities continued to lose population

as did many of the older boroughs.

The annual average rate of population increase for the study

area and the state, given in Table 4, reemphasize the fact that

the study area has been growing at roughly three times the rate

of the state as a whole.

TABLE 4

COMPOUND AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH
FROM 1950 TO 1980

-------------------------------------------------------
Average Annual
6 Counties Growth Rate (06)

Urban 1.30
Rural 1.39
Total .1.34

Pennsylvania

Urban 0.35
Rural 0.54
Total 0.51

Land In Farms

The primary data source for this and the following

discussion of agriculture is the U.S. Censuses of Agriculture for

the various years. As noted in the introduction to the 1982

Census, "In general, data for 1982, 1978, and 1974 are not fully

comparable with data for 1969 ... due to changes in the farm

definition. Data on acreages and inventories for 1982 and 1978

are generally comparable" (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1983). Any

incomparabilities that exist, however, probably do not seriously

distort the trends shown in the analyses that follow. Moreover,

the data for all of the counties are subject to the same
incomparabilities. - 25 -

With the constant upward trend of population in all counties

(Figure 4), an accompanying decline of land devoted to

agriculture might be expected. once again the process of

converting land f rom agriculture to other uses is more complex

than the simple relationship suggested above.

Several studies have shown that the relationships between

population increases, urbanization and loss of cropland are

complex and dynamic. For example, one study (Zeimetz and others,

1976) examined land use changes in 53 counties that had

experienced rapid population growth during the period 1961-1970.

of the land converted to urban uses, 35 percent had been

cropland, 33 percent open idle land, 28 percent forest, and 4

percent p asture. Concurrently, there had been shifts in both

directions among these same four land use categories. That is,

substantial amounts of land were converted from cropland to the

open idle category, and, to a lesser extent, from open idle to

cropland. Similar conversions occurred between cropland and

forest, cropland and pasture, pasture and forest, open idle and

forest, and pasture and open idle.

Some studies have computed a cropland urbanized coefficient,

i.e. acres of cropland lost per population increase. The Zeimetz

study (1976) found that such coefficients varied among different

regions of the country and declined over time within a given

area.

26 -

It is clear, then, that the conversion of land out of

agriculture is a complex phenomenon, with urbanization being only

one factor influencing land use. Other factors that have been

cited include changes in farm enterprises, technology and

government programs (Hart, 1968). With this as a national

perspective, the following sets of data relate to agriculture in

the study area. The total acreage in farms in the study counties

is displayed in Figure 5. The percentages of the counties total

1969 1974 1978 1982

ACRES (% = Percentage of County's Area in Farmland)
70% 69%

400000

350000 56% 52%

300000

250000

61% 59%

200000
46% 47%

150000 36% 33% 37% 33%

50000

0
ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 5. Total Farmland Area

area devoted to farms is also indicated. The relatively modest

changes in farmland mirror the national trends in agriculture.

The latter part of the sixties were a time of a robust

agriculture, characterized by "fence row to fence row" planting.

By the early seventies commodity prices were down and marginal

operations went out of business. The later part of the seventies

were the time of major export sales and a revitalized farm

economy bringing land back into production. Finally, the

eighties once again saw declining commodity prices and major

Federal supply control programs. The result was a movement of

land out of production (Personal communication, staff, Land Use

Branch, Economic Research Service USDA, 1987).

Livestock and Poultry Inventories

A potential and often existing major source of surface and

groundwater contamination is the manure produced by the farm

animal population. In this section, the animal populations are

tabulated by species and the numbers converted to a common

basis--the "animal unit". In this way the various populations

can be added up in a meaningful way. The next sections estimate

the quantity of manure and nutrients produced by the animal

populations.

An "animal unit" is defined as 1,000 pounds, live weight, of

the species in question. Thus, if a cow weighs 1,000 pounds, one

cow equals one animal unit; if hogs average 200 pounds each, five

hogs equal one animal unit; if a laying hen weighs four pounds,

250 hens equals one animal unit, etc.

For ease of analysis, certain simplifying assumptions were

made about the average size of the various species and the

average population where the farm populations turn over

frequently, e.g., broilers. Should the simplifying assumptions

bias the estimates in one direction or the other, the conclusions

will not be affected since we are making side-by-side comparisons

or observing time trends. A constant bias does not distort these

relationships. The situation would be quite different if the

numerical value of a particular point estimate were of interest.

In general, the Agricultural Censuses are reports of end of

the year inventories and total sales during the year. In some

instances, age subcategories of the various types of livestock

and poultry are included in the inventory data. For the

tabulations reported below, the end of the year inventories of

the various species were taken to represent the average year-

round population. The reasonableness of this assumption was

tested by comparing the inventories to the reported annual sales.

It was found, for example, that for hogs, which farrow twice a

year, sales were approximately double the inventory. Similarly,

broiler sales were five to six times the inventory.

The following average weights were assumed for making the

population to animal unit conversion. The weights to some degree

are assumed to account for the heavier breeding stock and the

lighter young growing stock included in the inventories.

29 -

Number of Animals
Animal Type Average Weight Per Animal Unit

Dairy Cow 1,000 lbs. 1
Beef Cow 1,000 lbs. 1
Hog 200 lbs. 5
Poultry-Laying Hen 4 lbs. 250
Broiler 2 lbs. 500

The number of animal units of the various species are shown

in Figures 6 through 9. As was the case with farm land, the

number of animal units in Lancaster County dominate all of the

othee-counties in the study area. moreover., the number of animal

units is increasing over time for all species of animals in
Lancaster County, whereas in the other areas the numbers, with

minor exceptions, remain relatively unchanged.

1969 1974 1978 1982

AU (I Animal Unit 1 Animal)

240000 -

200000 -

160000

120000

80000-

4110110

0
ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 6. Cattle & Calves--End of Year Inventory

1969 1974 1978 1982

AU (1 Animal Uriit 5 Animals)
70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000
01 npjA0 nAn nylmn 1,
ADAMS CUMBERLM DAUPM LWCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 7. Hogs & Pigs--End of Year Inventory

1969 1974 1978 1982

AU
40000 (1 Animal Unit 250 Birds)

35000 -

30000 -

25000 -

20000

15000 -

10000 -
5000 n ri M M
0
ADkMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 8. Laying Age Hens--End of Year Inventory

1969 1974 1978 1982

AU (1 Animal Unit 500 Birds)
18000

15000

12000

9000

6000

3000
0 Ann nP01 n P n
ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHN LANCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 9. Broilers--End of Year Inventory

Animal Waste Production

From the animal population estimates, it is possible to

estimate the quantity of manure produced annually, using the

information given in Table 5. The manure production coefficients

(tons/AU/year) for each species were applied to the animal unit

estimates to compute the animal waste produced by each species.

These quantities were then summed to estimate the tons of manure

from all animal types. This information is shown in Figure 10.

TABLE 5

MANURE PRODUCTION AND NUTRIENT CONTENT AS PRODUCED

-------------------------------- :-------------------
---------------
Totcil Manure Produ6ed Nutrient Content
Animal Avg. Size Daily Annual (lbs/ton Manure)
Type (lbs.) (lbs/AU)* (Tons/AU)* N* P* K*
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Cattle
Dairy 1,000 82 is 10 2 7
Beef 1,000 60 11 11 4 8

Hogs 200 65 12 14 5 9

Poultry
Layers 4 53 10 28 11 11"
Broilers 2 70 13 34 8 11

--------------------------------------------
*AU= Animal Unit= 1,000 pounds live weight; N= Total Nitrogen;
P= Elemental Phosphorus; K= Elemental Potassium, P 205= 2.27 x P;
K20= 1.20 x K.
------- ---- -------- -----
Source: Midwest Plan Service, 1985

1969 1974 1978 1982
1.000's
TONS/YR.
5500

5000

4500-

4000-

3500

3000

2500

2000-

1500 -

1000

500
0 noun
ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 10. ToLal Manure Produced By All Species

From an environmental management perspective, the amount of

animal waste produced p er unit area, or what may be termed the

"manure concentration ratio" is of particular interest, If animal

populations increase while farmland declines, the use of the land

is intensified. To search for such a trend, the total quantity

of manure produced was divided by the total land area devoted to

crops and pasture for each time period in each county. The

resulting ratios, having the units "tons of manure per acre per.

year" are graphed in Figure 11. As . shown there, with the

exception of Lancaster County, the ratios have been small (less

than 6 tons per acre) and essentially unchanged over time. The

ratios for Lancaster County reflect the growing numbers of all

animal types (Figures 6-9) and a flat or slightly downward

trending farmland base (Figure 5). The result is sharply

escalating ratios, demonstrating an intensification or

concentration of animal wastes produced per unit of land area.

Estimates of the nutrient content- -nitrogen, phosphorus or

potassium--can be made using the nutrient content coefficients

(pounds of nutrient per ton of manure) given in Table 5. if

nutrient ratios (pounds per acre per year) are computed, their

plots are very similar in appearance to Figure 11, but with

different units on the vertical axes. For instance, in the case

of nitrogen, the ratio hovers around 50 pounds per acre for all

time periods in all of the counties but Lancaster. In Lancaster,

the value of the ratio was about 115 in 1969 and increased to

about 180 in 1982.

34 -

1969 1974 1978 1982

Tons of ffanure Per Acre of Cropland & Pasture Per Year
15

@o
Io
I

Io
6 -

0
ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHw LANCASTER PERRY YORK
Figure 11. Manure Concentration Ratio

Topography and Ground-Cover

Regardless of the lack of specific land use information, it

is possible to make inferences about the development path of an

area from information about its topography--and predominant ground

cover. Table 6 gives two data items for each county in the study

area: (1) the proportion of each that is forested; and, (2) the

ratio of lands having few restrictions on their use as cropland

to lands that are unsuited for cultivation. These data are 1982

spot estimates made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil

Conservation Service and utilize the Soil capability

classification system of SCS.

TABLE 6

PROPORTION OF LAND AREA THAT IS FORESTED, AND CROPLAND
SUITABILITY RATIO

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ratio:
Percentage Land Suitable for Cropping
County Forested Land Unsuitabre -for Cropping
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Adams 27 2.9
Cumberland 35 1.5
Dauphin 43 1.0
Lancaster 12 5.9
Perry 67 0.5
York 26 2.2

Correlation coefficient, r, for two variables: -0.85

(Source: Soil Conservation Service, 1985)

Because wooded areas tend to occur on steep slopes, Perry

County can correctly be inferred to be quite mountainous, and the

least densely populated county (64 persons/sq. mile). At the

other extreme, Lancaster County is one of the top dozen

agricultural counties in the nation in terms of the total value

of agricultural products sold. with only about 12 percent of its

area wooded, Lancaster has almost 6 acres of Class I through

Class III land for every acre of Classes V through VIII land. By

contrast, the ratio is 0. 5 acres to 1 acre in Perry County. As

indicated in the table above, the remaining counties f all in

intermediate positions in terms of both wooded cover and the

ratio of "high quality" to "low quality" lands (relative to

agricultural production).

Total Cash Receipts by Farmers

one final measure of the magnitude of the agricultural

sector in the several counties is the amount of revenue generated

by farm sales. Such estimates, with a breakdown between crop and

livestock sales.. are shown in Table 7. As was the case in the

preceding table, the data presented here are for a single year,

1984. The primary purpose of these data is to show the relative

size of agricultural activities in the counties. A single data

set from a particular year is sufficient to do that. While a

time series of the estimates could be developed, a price deflator

would be needed to convert the estimates from a "current dollar"

to a "constant dollar" basis. It is felt that time trends are

better measured by physical counts of acreages. and animal

populations.

The table clearly illustrates the substantial role the

livestock industry plays in the area's agricultural economy.

TABLE 7

CASH RECEIPTS FROM SALE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS,
BY COUNTY IN 1984

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Sales in thousand dollars
T 0 E-a -1
From From Livestock & Cash Receipts
County All Crops Livestock Products By Farmers
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Adams 42,410 61,667 104fO77
Cumberland 12f682 66f483 79,165
Dauphin 8f431 36f845 45,276
Lancaster 48f529 527f872 576f401
Perry 4,943 30fO32 34f975
York 35f990 71,949 107,939
152f985 794,848 947,833

------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: PA Agricultural Statistics Service, 1985, p. 55-56

37 -

WATER QUALITY TRENDS AND LAND USE

Cumberland County & Conodoguinet Creek
and Yellow Breeches Creek Watersheds

Cumberland County, part of the Harr isburg-Lebanon-Carlisle

Metropolitan Statistical Area, can be divided into three areas.

The eastern end of the county is highly developed, containing a

substantial residential population. The central and western

parts of the county, lying in the center of the Cumberland

valley, is predominantly agricultural. Much of the southern part

of the county is mountainous. This latter area is forested and

has a low-density, rural non-farm population.

The county has been a high growth area since the fifties

(Table 3). Much of this growth was spurred by the opening of two

major bridges connecting the City of Harrisburg with the county.

One opened in 1953, the other in 1960. The improved access

resulted in an increase in the suburban population. More

recently growth has slowed in the larger communities, and is

occurring primarily in the lower population (<2,500) townships.

In fact, several of the older boroughs lost population in the

last census (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981).

Livestock production dominates the agricultural section in

the county. Poultry has shown modest increases in the last two

censuses'. building from a very small base. Dairy and beef cattle

are the major species grown, with milk cows dominating. Their

numbers have been increasing steadily since 1970 (PA Agricultural

38 -

Statistics Service, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985). The trend in animal

waste production is upward (Figure 10) . moreover, the long term

trend in the manure concentration ratio is slightly upward

(Figure 11).

Two main tributaries and respective watersheds of the

Susquehanna River traverse the agricultural and urban sectors of

Cumberland County. These watersheds are the Conodoguinet and

Yellow Breeches.

In the northern portion of Cumberland County the

Conodoguinet Creek flows northeasterly through moderate to steep

slopes of rolling hills and broad valleys. The northern

tributaries drain mixed forested and agricultural areas underlain

by shale bedrock. Agricultural activities in areas underlain by

carbonate rocks are the primary land uses in the remaining parts

of the watershed. Urban concentrations and strip development

along Route 11 parallel the lower reach of the Conodoguinet Creek

to its confluence with the Susquehanna River.

In 1973, major land uses of the watershed consisted of

approximately 45 percent agriculture, 38 percent forest, and 5

percent urban (Takita, 1977). Since the mid-1970's, the lower

reach has experienced a dramatic increase in urban growth as

agricultural lands are quickly being converted to residential and

commercial uses.

39 -

Yellow Breeches Creek is located in the southern portion of

Cumberland County. The upper reaches drain a forested area

underlain by quartzites, schists, rhyolites, and sandstones. The

stream flows eastward leaving the steep slopes of South Mountain,

the headwater area, down through the rolling hills of the Great

Valley Section. Here, the Yellow Breeches Creek flows through

mix wooded and agricultural lands underlain by carbonate bedrock

until it joins the Susquehanna River.

In 1973, land use consisted of 53 percent forested areas, 39

percent agriculture, and 0.5 percent urban (Takita, 1977) in the

watershed. As with most areas in the Harrisburg region, the

lower reach area has experienced a steady growth in low- to

medium-density residential developments. Areas of high-density

residential and commercial uses have developed in the extreme

northeast corner of the watershed.

Point sources of nutrients originate from industrial

discharges and municipal and non-publi c sewage treatment plants

(STPs). municipal STPS comprise the major point sources of

nutrients in the Conodoguinet and Yellow Breeches watersheds.

Nine municipal wastewater management systems are in the

Conodoguinet Creek watershed and yield a combined average design

discharge of 19.2 mgd (Table 8). The average discharge of non-

public operations is 0.4 million gallons per day (mgd). With the

exception of one treatment system, all municipal plants are

designed to remove phosphorus in the form of phosphate during the

waste treatment operation. Four dischargers operate nitrifi-

cation processes.

TABLE 8

CONODOGUINET CREEK WATERSHED
PUBLIC SEWAGE TREATMENT FACILITIES

-----------------------------------------------------------------
FACILITY AVERAGE NITRIFICATION OPERATION TYPE
LOCATION DESIGN FLOW AND DATE OF OF
(MGD) PHOS REMOVAL UPGRADE UPGRADE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Carlisle Boro 8.5 P N 6/82 NEW
Hampden Twp. WWP 2.5 P N 12/81 NEW
E. Pennsboro TwP_ 2.3 P 2/81 ICT*
Mechanicsburg Boro 2.1 P N 3/82 ICT*
Hampden Twp. STP 1.8 P 5/78 ICT*
Shippensburg Boro 1.6 N 8/82 ICT*
Carlisle Suburban** 0.4 P
Newville Boro 0.3 P 5/79 NEW
Newburg-Hopewell 0.1 P 12/85 NEW

---------------------------------------------------------------

ICT-Increased capacity & treatment
Non public

Based on the original issue date of NPDES permits, a

majority of municipal treatment plants began operations by the

mid-1970's. Since that time, three plants have been upgraded to

increase the level of treatment and overall capacity to the

system, and three new treatment plants were installed.

Four municipal sewage treatment plants are located in the

Yellow Breeches watershed and have a combined average design

discharge of 1.59 mgd (Table 9). The average discharge of non-

public operations is less than 0.5 mgd. All municipal STPs are

designed to remove phosphorus during the waste treatment

operation while three STPs have nitrification processes.

TABLE 9

YELLOW BREECHES CREEK WATERSHED
PUBLIC SEWAGE TREATMENT FACILITIES

------ FA_C__IL__IT_Y_ ------- AV_E_R_A_G_E_ ----- N_IT_R__IF__IC_A_T__I0_N_ --- OPERATION_-TYPE----
LOCATION DESIGN FLOW AND DATE OF OF
(MGD) PHOS REMOVAL UPGRADE UPGRADE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Mt. Holly Springs 0.338 P N 8/83 ICT*
S. Middleton TWp. 0.750 P N 6/77 NEW
Upper Allen Twp. 0.200 P 6/80 NEW
Dillsburg Boro 0.300 P N 12/83 INC**

-----------------------------------------------------------------
* ICT- Increased capacity & treatment
**INC- Increased capacity

Based on the issue date of NPDES permits, the four municipal

plants began operating during the 1970-1986 study period. Since

that time, selected treatment plants have been upgraded to

increase the level of treatment and/or increase the overall

capacity of the system.

A review of SIC codes for industrial waste discharges in the

watershed indicated that only one industry, Holly Milk

Cooperative (SIC 2023), is a nutrient generator. Holly Milk

discharges an average of 96,000 gallons per day to Mountain

Creek, a tributary of the Yellow Breeches Creek. The estimated

concentrations of nutrients for this type of economic activity

are about 10.8 mg/l and 61.2 mg/l for total phosphorus and total

kjeldahl nitrogen, respectively, according to the Chesapeake Bay

Program (1982).

42 -

Analysis of water Quality Data

Conodoguinet Creek watershed

Data f rom two water quality stations on the Conodoguinet

Creek were examined for trends in nutrient concentrations and

loads. Station WQN0213 is located upstream of most urban areas

with the exception of Carlisle. This site represents 432 square

miles of a watershed consisting primarily of agricultural and

forested land uses. Station WQN0240 is located near the mouth of

the watershed among more urbanized areas and represents 504

square miles of the watershed.

The Seasonal Kendall's Tau test was applied to the

concentration record for the period 1973-1986 and the transport

record for the period 1973-1984. Since the discharge record was

inadequate at either of the two sampling sites, mean daily

discharge data was prorated from a USGS gaging station (01570000)

located between the two sites using the ratio of drainage areas

in order to generate a transport record. Trend tests on the time

series of flow-adjusted-concentrations were made for those

parameters showing significant relationships against discharge.

Table 10 summarizes the results of the statistical trend tests.

The results of the regression of concentration versus discharge

are shown for those cases where the slope of the regression was

significant at the 0.1% level.

TABLE 10

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATIONS WQN0213 And WQN0240

--------------- ---------------------------------------------------
WQN0213 (Upstream station)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter CONC LOAD R@GRESSION PAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process

------------------ -------- -------- ------------ ---------------
Total PHOS - HS - HS
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - S - HS 0.02 + S - S OTHER
Total N02-N - HS - HS 0.12 HS - HS OTHER
Total N03-N + HS
Total N02-N+NO3-N + HS
Total INORG-N + HS

----------------------------------------------------------------
WQN0240 (Downstream station)
Parameter CONC LOAD R@GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
------------------ -------- -------- ------------ ---------------
Total PHOS - HS - HS
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - HS - S 0.16 + S FLOW
Total N02-N - HS - HS
Total N03-N + HS
Total N02-N+NO3-N + HS
Total INORG-N + HS

---- ------------------------------------------------------------

HS-Highly Significant; S-Significant; *-Not Significant
Flow-Trends in concentration or load result from trends
in discharge
Other-Trends in concentration of load result from processes
other than discharge
+ - Increasing trend/positive slope.
- Decreasing trend/negative slope.

Total phosphorus concentrations at both water quality

stations averaged 0.17 mg/l (Appendix A.1) during the period of

study. Since 1982, the variation in total phosphorus

concentrations has decreased considerably when compared to the

entire 1973 to 1986 record of monthly concentration values.

The time series plot also indicates slightly lower total

phosphorus concentrations from 1982 through mid-1986.

The time-series plot of total phosphorus concentrations at

station WQN0240 is similar to that of the upstream station

(WQN0213). The variation and magnitude of total phosphorus

values at station WQN0240 has decreased with concentrations

ranging from 0.03 mg/l to 0.22 mg/l. However, beginning in 1985,

variations in total phosphorus concentrations seemed to increase

gradually.

Statistical analyses of phosphorus concentrations and loads

at both stations indicated decreasing trends. Regression

analyses of concentration on mean daily discharge did not show

.any significant relationships. Therefore no tests were performed

on the FACs.

During the 1973 to 1986 monthly sampling period, total

nitrate-nitrogen at the upstream and downstream sites averaged

3.3 mg/l and 3.5 mg/l, respectively (Appendix A.1).

At station WQN0213, the plot of total nitrite-nitrogen shows

a gentle decline in concentration from 1973 to early 1983; no

trend is apparent from early 1983 to the end of the record.

Total nitrate-nitrogen concentrations remain fairly steady

between 1973 through 1983 with concentrations varying from 2 mg/l

to 4 mg/l. However, an increase in total nitrate-nitrogen

concentrations occurred in 1983; these concentrations vary from

3.5 mg/1 to 5.5 mg/1.

As at station WQN0213, the nitrate-nitrogen concentrations

increased slightly during 1983 at station WQN0240. However, the

increase is smaller than at station WQN0213. The variations in

nitrate-nitrogen concentrations with time appear similar at the

two stations. Because total nitrate-nitrogen contributes 95

percent of the total inorganic nitrogen, the time series of total

inorganic nitrogen closely follows the same pattern as the time

series of nitrate-nitrogen.

At station WQN0213, the statistical analysis shows

decreasing trends in the concentration and load for nitrite-

nitrogen and ammonia-nitrogen, while increasing trends were found

in nitrate-nitrogen and total inorganic nitrogen concentration.

Regression analyses of these parameters versus discharge resulted

in significant relationships for only two parameters: nitrite-

nitrogen and ammonia-nitrogen (Table 10). The slopes of the

relationships show decreasing concentrations with increasing

discharges suggesting that trends in the concentrations may be

due to a dilutional effect of flow. However, the test of the

FACs indicate that some process change other flow may have caused

the slightly decreasing concentrations in total ammonia-nitrogen

and total nitrite-nitrogen at station WQN0213.

At station WQN0240, decreasing trends occurred in the

concentration and transport records for nitrite-nitrogen and

ammonia-nitrogen while the other forms of inorganic nitrogen

46 -

showed increasing,trends. The regression of only one parameter,

total ammonia-nitrogen concentration on discharge, resulted in a

significant relationship Results of the FAC procedure indicated

that the trend in concentration for this parameter was probably

the result of a trend in flows.

The results of the FAC analyses for ammonia-nitrogen

indicate that two separate processes are causes of trends in the

parameter. There may be more than. one process affecting trends

in ammonia-nitrogen at the lower station, with flow possibly the

dominant process. This may be due to increased surface runof f

and discharge from a highly developed area between the two

stations.

Yellow Breeches watershed

one water quality station was examined for trends in

nutrient concentrations and loads on the Yellow Breeches Creek.

Station WQN0212 is located approximately a half mile upstream

f rom the mouth representing 219 square miles of a predominantly

mixed forest and agricultural watershed.

The discharge record for station WQN0212 was incomplete and

had to be estimated from records of USGS station 01571500, using

the ratio of drainage areas.

During the 1973 to 1986 monthly sampling period, total

phosphorus averaged 0.17 mg/l, ranging from 0.03 mg/l to 1.8 mg/l

- 47

at the water quality station (Appendix A.2). Concentrations of

total phosphorus were fairly constant during much of the sampling

period and exhibited little response to fluctuations in mean

daily discharge.

Statistical tests on the total phosphorus data suggested a

declining trend in the transport record (Table 11). However,

results from the regression test did not warrant the use of the

flow-adjusted-concentration procedure.

TABLE 11

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATION WQN0212

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter CONC LOAD PGRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
------------------ -------- -------- ------------- --------------
Total PHOS S
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - HS HS 0.07 + HS - HS OTHER
Total N02-N - HS HS
Total N03-N - S S
Total N02-N+NO3-N - S
Total INORG-N - HS S

-----------------------------------------------------------------
HS-Highly Significant; S-Significant; *-Not Significant
Flow-Trends in concentration or load result from trends
in discharge
other-Trends in concentration of load result from processes
other than discharge
+ - Increasing trend/positive slope.
- Decreasing trend/negative slope.

Total inorganic-nitrogen averaged 1.96 mg/1 ranging from

0.44 mg/1 to 4.32 mg/l, during the sampling period between 1973

to 1986 (Appendix A.2). Total nitrate-nitrogen accounted for 97

percent of the inorganic nitrogen. Average daily load for

2
inorganic nitrogen amounted to 1.6 tons or 14.6 lbs/day per mi

48 -

Plots of the nitrogen species concentrations and discharge

time series revealed small decreases in total nitrite-nitrogen,

total nitrate-nitrogen, and inorganic nitrogen... The small

declines in concentration occurred between 1978 and 1979 and

remained at the reduced concentrations for the remaining sampling

period. Total ammonia-nitrogen concentrations were highly

variable and difficult to interpret. However, total ammonia-

nitrogen concentrations rarely fell below 0.05 mg/l before 1979

whereas concentrations lower than 0.05 mg/l were common after

1979.

All nitrogen species exhibited trends in concentration

and/or load based on the Seasonal Kendall Tau Test. The

regression of total ammonia-nitrogen on mean daily discharge

resulted in a significant relationship. The trend test on the

FACs for total ammonia-nitrogen indicated that some process

change other than flow caused reduced concentrations over time.

Assessment

Cumberland County's population will continue to grow at

rates well above that of the state, maintaining a mixed rural and

urban character. Urbanizing pressures are sufficiently strong

that in the long term, agricultural land uses, e.g., beef and

dairy operations, will give way to more intensive uses such as

residential and business development. Agricultural and

urbanizing activities will continue to impact the Conodoguinet

watershed more than the Yellow Breeches.

49 -

The water quality data of the Yellow Breeches suggest the

absence of major degrading influences. This may result from the

watershed draining a large percent of forested mountai n areas

with low intensity agricultural and urban uses in the remaining

portion of the watershed.

The evaluation of graphical and statistical tests of the

nutrient data do not indicate the occurrence of nutrient

enrichment problems. Even though a significant statistical trend

was found in the phosphorus transport record, a 'review of all the

analytical procedures did not indicate a definite trend in total

phosphorus. The step reduction that occurred in the nitrogen

data between 1978 and 1979 is typical of a pattern resulting from

a change in a major point source; however, this trend can not be

correlated to any changes in past land use activities.

Possible future land use impacts on water quality in the

Yellow Breeches may result from the influence of residential

development occurring along the lower reaches of the watershed.

The time-series of nutrient data from the two water quality

stations on the Conodoguinet Creek indicate a sudden change in

the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations during the time when

new municipal sewage treatment plants were installed and existing

plants were upgraded.

Beginning around 1982, an increase in nitrate-nitrogen

concentrations occurred simultaneously with a decrease in

phosphorus, ammonia-nitrogen, and nitrite-nitrogen

concentrations. The magnitude of concentration variation in the

various parameters was relatively small for the remaining period

of record as compared to pre-1982 concentrations. The sudden

change in nitrate-nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations

corresponds to the period of municipal sewage treatment plant

upgrades and establishment of new plants (Table 8) and is

consistent with the changes expected to result from such

construction. The Carlisle STP discharging into the Conodoguinet

Creek probably had the greatest impact on nutrient

concentrations. This.treatment plant operates both nitrification

and phosphorus removal processes discharging at an average design

flow of 8.5 mgd.

After the sewage treatment plant installation and upgrade

period, total phosphorus concentrations were maintained at lower

levels and the variability in those concentrations were reduced.

Since early 1985, total phosphorus is showing signs of increasing

concentrations and variability, especially at the downstream

site. This phenomenon may be attributed to the intense growth in

residential development along the lower reach of the watershed.

Increased phosphorus concentrations may be expected in the near

future as a result of this growth.

Dauphin County & Swatara Creek Watershed

Dauphin County is the most urban county in the study area.

While it has the highest population density of any of the study

area counties, its population growth has been, with one

exception, well below that of the study area as a whole

(Table 3). Harrisburg, its central city, as is typical of older

cities in the northeast, reached its peak population in 1950, and

has been declining ever since (PA Department of Commerce, 1973).

The county has the second to the smallest agricultural

sector of the study area counties based on cash receipts

(Table 7). It has the least number of acres in farms (Figure 5).

The size of the agricultural sector is the result of several

factors. As shown in Table 6, over 40 percent of the county is

forested and half of the non-urban land is unsuited to cropping,

i.e., suitability ratio equals 1.0. Urbanization of the area

around Harrisburg also serves to limit the land area available

for farming.

Livestock production, generates 80 percent of the sales

revenues of Dauphin County farmers (Table 7). Animal populations

for all species are modest compared with the other counties in

the study (Figures 6-9). There is a slight upward trend in both

the tons of manure produced annually and the manure concentration

ratio (Figures 10 & 11). However, both values are only slightly

higher than those for Perry County, the county with the smallest

agricultural sector.

Part of the Swatara Creek watershed occupies the central and
southern part of Dauphin County. Swatara Creek drains a 576 mi 2

area and flows 71.7 miles southwestward through the mountains and

valleys of southcentral Pennsylvania. The headwaters and upper

reaches of Swatara Creek originate in the Appalachian Mountain

Section, located in Schuylkill County. This area is

characterized by narrow valleys having steep mountainous slopes.

The middle reach, located in Berks County, crosses the Great

Valley with the lower reach, located in Dauphin County, occurring

within the Triassic Lowland Section. The middle and lower

reaches are contained in a broad valley and rolling hills of

moderate slope. The Swatara drains much of the lower half of

Dauphin County, including the larger population, suburbanized

townships of Derry, Lower Paxton and Swatara. The remainder of

the drainage is comprised of small (0,000 persons) urban

townships and rural areas. Based on the relatively modest

population growth and farm activity in the county, the Swatara is

expected to have water quality comparable to the Conodoguinet.

The Swatara Creek watershed consisted of approximately 52

percent agricultural lands, 37.1 percent forest lands, and 1.2

percent urban lands in 1973 (Takita, 1977). It is important to

note that 7.0 percent of the watershed's land is considered

disturbed, referring to strip mines located in the northern part

of the basin. Most urbanized areas are located east of

Harrisburg along Route 422 towards the city of Lebanon and the

surrounding area where agricultural lands are being converted to

other urban developments and highway expansion.

Thirteen municipal wastewater management systems are located

in the Swatara Creek watershed and yield a total average design

discharge of more than 15 mgd (Table 12). Most systems are

located in the southern portion of the watershed around Route

422. With the exception of Lebanon City, the municipal STPs

discharge relatively small amounts of treated wastewater. Some

form of phosphorus removal takes place at nearly all the

facilities, while only two facilities operate nitrification

processes by the attached or suspended growth methods.

TABLE 12

SWATARA CREEK WATERSHED
PUBLIC SEWAGE TREATMENT FACILITIES

FACILITY AVERAGE NITRIFICATION OPERATION TYPE
LOCATION DESIGN FLOW AND DATE OF OF
(MGD) PHOS REMOVAL UPGRADE UPGRADE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Lebanon City/STP 6.3 P N 10/74 NEW
Swatara Twp. Auth. 3.0 P 7/74 NEW
Derry Twp. M. A. 2.75 P 8/74 NEW
Palmyra Boro Auth. 1.42 p 7/83 ICT*
Annville Twp. Auth. 0.75 6/81 ICT*
North Lebanon Co. A. 0.40 P 5/82 NEW
S. Londonderry/West 0.173 P Before 3/74 NEW
Fredericksburg S & W 0.15 P 7/84 NEW
S. Londonderry/East 0.06 P N 6/81 NEW
Frailey Twp. Sewer ? ? ? ?
Pine Grove Boro S. ? ? ? ?
Pine Grove Twp. S. A. multiple discharge points ? ?
Tremont Munc. S. A. ? ? ? ?

------- ----- -- --

ICT-Increased capacity & treatment

In the Swatara Creek watershed, f irms associated with the

manufacturing of food and kindred products (SIC 20) are the

major economic activities with the greatest potential to generate

nutrients. As indicated in Table 13, poultry processing

(SIC 2016) and animal oil manufacturing (SIC 2077) produce high

nutrient concentrations. The largest and major employer in the

food and kindred products industry is the Hershey Chocolate

Company (SIC 2066). However, most discharges from this firm are

cooling waters utilized in plant operations.

TABLE 13

SWATARA CREEK WATERSHED
FIRMS CONSIDERED NUTRIENT GENERATORS

FACILITY SIC
NAME CODE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Grimes Poultry 2016
College Hill Poultry 2016
Keystone Protein Co. 2077
Manbeck Poultry 2016

------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Water Quality Data

Swatara Creek watershed

One water quality station, WQN0211, was selected for trend

analyses in nutrient concentrations and loads on the Swatara

Creek. It is located at the Route 441 bridge in Middletown and
represents 571 mi 2 or 99 percent of the watershed area.

55 -

Graphic and statistical procedures were performed on the

monthly concentration (1973-1986) and transport (1975-1985) data.

Transport records were constructed utilizing mean daily discharge

data from USGS gaging station 01573560 and prorating the

discharge data to the water quality network station using the

ratio of drainage areas. Trend tests were made on the flow-

adj usted- concentrations for total phosphorus and total nitrite-

nitrogen.

Total phosphorus averaged 0.25 mg/1 during the 1973-1986
monthly sampling period and averaged 2.1 lbs/day per mi 2 from

1975 to 1985 (Appendix A.3). A visual inspection of the time

series plot of the transport record did not reveal any apparent

trends. However, a slight trend was apparent in the

concentration record. Between 1973 and 1981, most phosphorus

concentrations varied from 0.04 mg/1 to 0.4 mg/l. This large

.variation exhibited little response to fluctuations in mean daily

discharge. Monthly samples of total phosphorus concentrations

after 1981 were fairly constant with only 16 percent -of the

values exceeding 0.2 mg/l.

Testing the phosphorus data with the Seasonal Kendall's Tau

procedure indicated a declining trend in the transport time

series but no trend in the concentration record (Table 14). The

relationship between streamflow and total phosphorus

concentration was weak but significant. Analysis of the FACs

suggested a decline in total phosphorus has occurred due to some

process change other than that related to flow.

TABLE 14

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATION WQN0211

----------------------------------------------
Parameter CONC LOAD R@GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
----------------- -------- -------- ----------- ----------------
Total PHOS S 0.04 S - HS OTHER
Total NH3-N+NH4-N
Total N02-N HS HS 0.11 HS - HS OTHER
Total N03-N + HS
Total N02-N+NO3-N + HS
Total INORG-N + HS

----------------------------------------------------------------
HS-Highly Significant; S-Significant; *-Not Significant
Flow-Trends in concentration or load result from trends
in discharge
Other-Trends in concentration of load result from processes
other than discharge
+ - Increasing trend/positive slope.
- Decreasing trend/negative slope.

Total inorganic nitrogen averaged 3.7 mg/l. The time series

plot of inorganic nitrogen showed an increasing trend in the

concentration record but revealed no trend in the transport

record. Nitrate-nitrogen was the most abundant form of inorganic

nitrogen, accounting for 95 percent of total inorganic nitrogen.

The time series plot of total nitrate-nitrogen revealed a

slightly increasing trend in concentration. Nitrate-nitrogen
showed little response to fluctuations in streamflow. The time

series plot of total ammonia-nitrogen concentration failed to

exhibit any apparent trend. Concentrations of total nitrite-

nitrogen were highly variable during the period of record;

however, lower nitrite-nitrogen concentrations were more

prevalent after 1979. The statistical analysis of nitrite-

nitrogen indicated decreasing trends in concentration and loads

and was the only parameter that showed a relationship to

streamflow. Results of the trend test on the FACs for nitrite-

nitrogen suggests that some process change has taken place,

resulting in reduced inputs of nitrite-nitrogen to Swatara Creek.

Assessment

Dauphin will remain an urban county, but with population

growth well below that of the six county study area. In the

agricultural sector the increase in manure generation between

1978 and 1982 was -associated entirely with an increase in the

number of.cattle and calves on farms, the number of animal units

of all other species having declined during that period.

Results of the trend testing procedures show a declining

trend in FACs of total phosphorus suggesting that the declining

trend in phosphorus load (Table 14) is due to processes other

than discharge. During the study period, the implementation of

phosphorus reduction and removal techniques at municipal

wastewater treatment plants may have aided in the reduction of

phosphorus delivered to surface waters.

Nitrogen concentration exhibited increasing trends in

nitrate-nitrogen and total inorganic nitrogen in the Swatara

Creek. These increasing trends support other studies (PA DER,

1975, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1986; Pishel and Richardson, 1985) where

higher nitrate-nitrogen concentrations existed in streams

draining agricultural areas. The reduced inputs of nitrite-

nitrogen can not be attributed to any relationships in changing

land use activities.. A declining trend in nitrite-nitrogen may

be an artifact of chemical, physical, and biological processes

acting upon this unstable form of inorganic nitrogen.

Lancaster County & Conestoga River Watershed

Lancaster County has the largest land area, the largest

population, and the largest agricultural sector in the study area

as is clearly shown in Figures 4 through 11.

Lancaster County is a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) ,

ranking 88th among the nation'S 281 MSA's in 1985 (The Patriot,

July 30, 1986, p. A-12). At the same time nationally it was the

lith ranking.county in value of all agricultural products sold in

1982 (PA Agricultural Statistics Service, 1985, p. 61). It and

14th ranked Palm Beach County, Florida were the only counties

east of the Mississippi River in the top ranking 25 agricultural

counties.

About 2,000 to 3,000 acres of land are estimated to be

moving out of agriculture each year (Personal communication,

Director of the Lancaster County Planning Commission, 1987). The

long term (1950-80) population increase has averaged about 4,300

persons per year (Table 3).

-Lancaster County leads the Commonwealth in the production of

corn, hay and tobacco, and ranks second among all counties in

producing barley and peaches (PA Agricultural Statistics Service,

1985, p. 59). However, the livestock sector dominates the

county I s agriculture. In 1984, 92 percent of farm income came

from the sale of livestock and livestock products, eggs and milk

(Table 7). Even more significant is the rate at. which the farm

animal populations have grown between the 1969 and 1982 censuses.

For instance in 1969 the county produced 19.7 million broilers

and other meat type birds. By 1982 this number had reached 46.6

million. Similar growth increases for cattle, hogs and laying

hens are shown in Figures 6-8. Simultaneously, there has been a

growth in the quantity of animal manures requiring disposal. Of

greater concern than the increased quantities of wastes is the

sharply increasing manure concentration ratio. With the amount

of land in farming static or even declining slightly, the growing

production of manure leads to higher and higher amounts of animal

wastes to be disposed of per unit of cultivated land. Figure 10

shows the magnitude of the problem. The ratios for all of the

other counties have hovered around 4 to 5 tons per acre. The

ratio for Lancaster in 1969 was 10 tons per acre and reached 14

tons per acre in 1982. Not surprisingly degradation of Conestoga

River by runoff from agricultural lands is occurring.

The Conestoga River drains a 477 mi 2 area in the Piedmont

Province and flows west for 20 miles before changing to a

southwest course for 40 miles. The topography surrounding the

upper and middle reaches of the Conestoga River is characterized

by rolling hills with mild slopes in a broad valley. A narrowing

valley with hills of moderate slopes def ines the terrain along

the lower reach of the main channel.

Major land uses in the watershed consisted of 59 percent

agriculture, 31 percent forest, and 1 percent urban in 1973

(Takita, 1977). The forested lands are located primarily along

the northern boundary of the drainage area. Urbanized areas

include the City of Lancaster, and the Boroughs of Ephrata,

Lititz, Ephrata, New Holland, and Millersville. Growth and

suburbanization continues in the area surrounding Lancaster.

A total of twelve municipal wastewater management systems

are located in the Conestoga River watershed, with a combined

average design discharge of 45.3 mgd (Table 15). The three STPs

in the Lancaster City area contribute 83 percent of the total

municipal waste discharge. According to a treatment plant and

discharge point report obtained from the DER Bureau of Water

Quality Management (Bonnie Morrow, personal communication), most.

sewage treatment plants in the watershed lack significant

phosphorous removal and nitrification processes.

6.1

TABLE 15

CONESTOGA RIVER WATERSHED
PUBLIC SEWAGE TREATMENT FACILITIES

-------------------------- --------------------------------------
FACILITY AVERAGE NITRIFICATION OPERATION TYPE
LOCATION DESIGN FLOW AND DATE OF OF
(MGD) PHOS REMOVAL UPGRADE UPGRADE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Lancaster Area S A 23.0 6/77 NEW
N. Lancaster City 12.0 10/74 NEW
S. Lancaster City 2.9 10/74 NEW
Lititz S A 2.4 P N 7/82 ICT*
Ephrata Boro 1.9 10/74 NEW
New Holland Boro 1.2 7/89 ICT*
Millersville Boro 1.0 7/74 NEW
North Lancaster Co 0.35 N 12/81 NEW
Adamstown S A 0.30 5/74 NEW
Terre Hill Boro 0.21 5/74 NEW
Caernarvon Twp. ? ? ? ?
Elverton Boro ? ? ? ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ICT-Increased capacity & treatment

A review of NPDES permitted industrial waste dischargers and

their associated SIC codes revealed that 3 of 20 industrial

dischargers are considered nutrient generators (Table 16). Two

are associated with agricultural products: (SIC 2016-poultry

processing and SIC 2035-pickled fruits and vegetables).

TABLE 16

CONESTOGA RIVER WATERSHED
FIRMS CONSIDERED NUTRIENT GENERATORS

-----------------------------------------------------------------
FACILITY SIC
NAME CODE

--- -------- - --------- ----
Air Products & Chemicals 2813
Victor F. Weaver, Inc. 2016
Spring Glen Farms, Inc. 2035

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Water Quality Data

Conestoga River Watershed

Data for two water quality stations were examined for

nutrient trends in concentrations and loads on the Conestoga

River. The upstream station, WQN0205, is located northeast of

Lancaster where Route 230 crosses the River. This station

2
represents 324 mi of a watershed containing intense agricultural

activity. Station WQN0231 is located downstream of Lancaster
City and its growing suburban areas. It represents 399 mi 2 of

the watershed.

Graphical and statistical procedures were performed on the

concentration records (1973-1986) and the transport records

(1973-1984) at both stations and evaluated for trends. Transport

records were constructed for both stations utilizing mean daily

discharge data from a USGS gaging station (01576500) to calculate

mean daily load for each monthly sample.

During the period of study average total phosphorus

concentrations varied quite differently between the two water

quality stations. At the upstream station, total phosphorus
averaged 0.28 mg/1 or 1.8 lbs/day per mi 2 while the downstream..
station averaged 0.59 mg/1 or 3.6 lbs/day per mi 2 (Appendix A.4).

A visual comparison of the total phosphorus time series

plots to that of mean daily discharge indicates that elevated

concentrations generally occurred during times of lower mean

daily flows at both stations. This effect is more pronounced at

the downstream water quality station. Between 1980 and 1982,

observed phosphorus concentrations were notably higher,

coinciding with a sequence of lower mean daily flows. other than

this three year period, total phosphorus exhibited large

variations in concentration making interpretation of any trends

difficult.

Statistical, analyses of the data showed declining trends in

concentrations and loads of phosphorous at both water quality

stations on the Conestoga River (Table 17). At the downstream

station, WQN0231, the analyses indicate the existence of a
significant trend in'concentration and a highly significant trend

in load. Such findings may indicate that the trend in

concentration is a consequence of a particular sequence of

discharges. The regression of concentration vs. discharge was

weak but significant. Trend test applied to the FACs suggest

that some process change may have reduced inputs of phosphorus to

the Conestoga River but flow conditions masked the effect of this

change. An analysis of the FACs at the upstream site yielded the

same conclusions.

Total inorganic nitrogen and total nitrate-nitrogen average

concentrations were very similar for both water quality stations.

The average concentrations of ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-

nitrogen were approximately twice as high at the downstream

station as at the upstream station. Loading of inorganic

nitrogen at station WQN0205 and WQN0231 during the period of
investigation averaged 45.9 lbs/day per mi 2 and 47.5 lbs/day per
mi 2, respectively (Appendix A.4).

TABLE 17

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATIONS WQN0205 & WQN0231

-----------------------------------------------------------------
WQN0205 (Upstream station)
------- --------- --------
Parameter CONC LOAD R@GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
----------------- -------- -------- ------------ ----------------
Total PHOS - HS - I-is 0.01 - S - HS OTHER
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - HS - I-is
Total N02-N - HS - HS 0.04 - S - HS, OTHER
Total N03-N + HS
Total N02-N+NO3-N + HS
Total INORG-N + HS

---------------
--------------------------------------------------
WQN0231 (Downstream station)
Parameter CONC LOAD R@GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
----------------- -------- -------- ------------ ----------------
Total PHOS - S - HS 0.17 + HS HS OTHER
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - S - S 0.09 + HS FLOW
Total N02-N + S 0.07 + HS FLOW
Total N03-N - S 0.03 - S FLOW
Total N02-N+NO3-N - S 0.02 - S FLOW
Total INORG-N - HS

-----------------------------------------------------------------
HS-Highly Significant; S-Significant; *-Not Significant
Flow-Trends in concentration or load result from.trends
in discharge
other-Trends in concentration of load result from processes
other than discharge
+ - Increasing trend/positive slope.
- Decreasing trend/negative slope.

Time-series plots of concentration and transport were

constructed for the various forms of inorganic nitrogen and

reviewed for visual trends. The plots revealed similar patterns

in the various inorganic nitrogen forms at both sites.

65 -

At the downstream station, WQN0231, most ammonia-nitrogen

values remained below 1.0 mg/l and exhibited some variability

during the period of record. However, ammonia-nitrogen

concentrations peaked between 3.0 mg/l and 5.5 mg/l in the early

months of 1977, 1961, 1982, 1983. Only the 1981 and 1982 events

occurred at the upstream station, WQN0205, with peak

concentrations being much lower than the peaks that occurred at

the downstream station. With the exception of the 1981 and 1982

events, most ammonia-nitrogen values at the upstream site

remained below 0.35 mg/l. No perceptible trends were identified

in either time series.

The plots of nitrite-nitrogen at both stations show a

tendency towards more variability in concentrations between 1982

to 1986. Nevertheless, a majority of the values during this

period were much lower than the values that occurred prior to

1982. Slightly declining trends in nitrite-nitrogen

concentrations are discernible in the time series data for both

station s.

Total nitrate-nitrogen concentrations were highly variable

at both sites during the period of investigation but increasing

@trends were still visible on the plots. The increasing trend was

much more apparent at the upstream station. Unlike ammonia-

nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen, concentrations of total nitrate-

nitrogen were relatively the same at both stations throughout the

66 -

period of record. Because nitrate-nitrogen comprises the major

portion of total inorganic nitrogen, the time series patterns for

inorganic nitrogen are similar to those for nitrate-nitrogen.

For the upstream station, the Seasonal Kendall's Tau test

results indicated highly significant trends in the concentration

and load records for ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen and

only for concentration for the other nitrogen species (Table 17).

Ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen show declining trends while

the other inorganic forms exhibited increasing trends. only one

parameter, nitrite-nitrogen, showed a significant relationship to

mean daily discharge. The test of nitrite-nitrogen's FACs

indicated a decline in concentration had occurred as a result of

a process change other than that of flow.

For the downstream station, WQN0231, declining trends

occurred in the transport record for all of the various forms of

inorganic nitrogen. The concentration data show a declining

trend for ammonia-nitrogen, an increasing trend for nitrite-

nitrogen, and no significant trends for the remaining nitrogen

species. The analyses of the FAC data did not indicate any

trends. This suggests that the trends in concentration and load

were indeed artifacts of a particular sequence of discharges and

that there is no evidence for any changes in the processes

contributing the various forms of inorganic nitrogen to the

Conestoga River.

Assessment

The surface waters of the Conestoga watershed have high

concentrations of phosphorus and nitrates as well as other

pollutants largely because of intensive agricultural activities-

with continued population growth in and around the towns and

cities of the watershed, wastewater discharges from municipal

STPs have also increased. Even though the wastes are treated,

more than 50 percent of Lancaster County's sewage ends up in the

Conestoga River (Chesapeake Citizen Report, 1987). The trend in

population growth is expected to continue, increasing the amount

of wastewater disposal.

Trends in nitrate-nitrogen and total inorganic nitrogen

concentrations at the upstream station may be attributed to the

land use influences, of the agricultural sector. Animal

populations, manure production and the manure concentration ratio

continues to increase over time. The activity of the

agricultural sector contributes to the increasing trends noted in

some nutrient concentrations. Much of this increase may be

attributed to denser livestock populations in barn yards, feed

lots, and pasture areas draining to surface waters.

Declining trends in phosphorus concentrations and load are

the opposite of what would be expected based on man's activities

in the Conestoga watershed. Even though phosphorus

concentrations are relatively high, perhaps increased treatment

68 -

from municipal STPs has reduced the level of certain pollutants.

A second possibility is that the statistical analysis of the data

produced false results due to the sampling technique.

Perry County & Sherman Creek watershed

Perry County has the smallest and most rural population, and

the lowest population density (Table 3) in the study area. Its

cash receipts from sale of agricultural products were the lowest

of the six counties in 1984 (Table 7). Two-thirds of the county

is wooded and only one-third is suitable for cropping (Table 6).

Thus, the county can be characterized as a rural, mountainous

area with small, isolated areas of population and livestock

production. As a result of the large proportion of the county in

woodland cover, the surface waters are relatively pristine

(Appendix A.5).

Sherman Creek flows northeastward through a narrow valley

surrounded by mountains, high hills, and ridges within the

Appalachian Mountain Section of the Valley and Ridge Province.

The stream drains a predominately forested watershed containing

agricultural areas along moderate slopes and small valleys. it

drops from an altitude of 2,225 feet to 330 feet.

Although a detailed breakdown of land use was not available

on a watershed level, land use information was available on a

county level and is typical of what is represented in Shermans

Creek watershed. In 1974, the Economic Research Service of the

69 -

USDA shows Perry County having 62 percent in forest, 28.5 percent

in agriculture, and 3.5 percent in urban land uses. Population

centers consist of small rural communities scattered throughout

the watershed. The largest population center, Duncannon, is

situated at the confluence of Sherman Creek and the Susquehanna

River. within the past decade, small rural residential

communities have developed in the lower portions of the

watershed.

Due to the rural nature of the watershed, only one municipal

STP exists in the drainage area. Initiating operations in mid-

1981, the Loysville Village STP discharges an average design flow

of 0.11 mgd and operates both phosphorus removal and

nitrification processes. The remaining STPs are non-public

operations contributing a combined discharge of 0.07 mgd from

small residential areas and mobile home parks. Original issue

dates of NPDES permits indicate that these non-public systems

began operations in the early 1980's. The remaining majority of

the resident population utilize septic systems.

Analysis of Water Quality Data

Sherman Creek Watershed

one water quality station was examined for trends in

nutrient concentrations (1973-1986) and loads (1973-1985) on

Sherman Creek. Station WQN0243 is located approximately 2.5

miles upstream of Duncannon and represents 240 square miles of a

predominantly forested watershed with small agricultural areas.

The concentration of total phosphorus averaged 0.07 mg/1
with an average daily load of 140 lbs or 0.58 lbs/mi 2

(Appendix A.5). The phosphorus data evaluated for the period of

study indicates that Sherman Creek has very good water quality.

Since the discharge record was incomplete at the water quality

station, WQN0243, mean daily discharge data was prorated from a

USGS gaging station (01568000) located upstream.

Graphical and statistical analyses of the data did not

reveal any trends in total phosphorus concentrations or loads.

The data exhibited small variations and concentrations remained

fairly constant over the period of record.

During the 1973 to 1986 sampling period, total inorganic

nitrogen averaged 1.15 mg/l. Nutrient data monitored at station

WQN0243 indicated that water quality in Sherman Creek is very

good (Appendix A.5).

Time-series plots of nutrient concentrations and loads did

not exhibit any monotonic trends or sudden changes for any

parameter except for nitrite-nitrogen. A plot of total nitrite-

nitrogen indicates a gradual decline in concentrations from 1975

to 1979. Concentrations averaged 0.04 mg/1 in 1975, 0.03 mg/1 in

1977, and 0.01 mg/1 in 1979. Post 1979 concentrations remained

fairly steady at an average annual concentration of 0.01 mg/l.

The Seasonal Kendall's test indicated a downward trend in the

71 -

concentration and transport records for ammonia-nitrogen and

nitrite-nitrogen.

Regression analyses of ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen

resulted in significant relationships. Positive slopes of the

regression suggest that at higher flows there is a greater input

of these two nutrients to Sherman Creek. The declining trends in

concentration and transport could, therefore, be an artifact of a

pattern of discharges. However, tests performed on the FACs

suggest that some change other than streamflow has taken place,

resulting in reduced inputs of ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-

nitrogen in Sherman Creek.

TABLE 18

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATION WQN0243

----------------------------------------------
Parameter CONC LOAD GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope RF Slope Slope Process
----------------- -------- -------- ------------- --------------
Total PHOS
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - S - S 0.10 + S - S OTHER
Total N02-N - HS - HS 0.04 + S - HS OTHER
Total N03-N
Total N02-N+NO3-N
Total INORG-N

Assessment

Changes that occur in the county in the future are not

expected to have a substantial impact upon the surface streams of

the area. The rural population will continue to grow at a high

rate. Growing at the overall rate experienced between 1970 and

1980, it will take 31 years for the pop ulation density to double

to 124 persons per square mile--less than that of Adams County

today. Growing at the 1970-80 rate, the density in Perry County

will reach 200 persons/sq. mi. in 2062. If the bulk of this

growth occurs on large-lots with self-contained sewage systems,

there is some possibility that ground-water sources will be

degraded over time.

One other possible source of contamination of surface and

ground waters is from the manure produced by broiler operations

if that sector maintains its recent rate of growth. The manure

concentration ratio shows a slight upward trend. At this time,

however, it is of the same order of magnitude as those of all of

the other counties, excepting Lancaster (Figure 11). Further,

estimated animal waste from all species in 1982 was the lowest of

all the counties. In all probability, substantial natural

assimilative capacity.remains before the system is stressed.

Past land use activities have not substantially impacted the

surface waters of the Sherman Creek watershed. Based on the land

use data used for this study period, the declining trends in the

statistical analysis of ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen can

not be attributed to any changes in historical land use

activities.

York and Adams Counties &
West Conewago Creek and Codorus Creek Watersheds

County Summaries

York County

In terms of total land area and population York County is a

close second to Lancaster. In terms of forest cover, the amount

of land suitable for cropping and amount of cash receipts f rom

the sales of agricultural products, York and Adams Counties are

very similar (Tables 6 and 7). Like the City of Lancaster, the

City of York is the central city of an MSA.,

The county leads the state in the production of wheat,

barley and soybeans and was second in corn for grain and potatoes

(PA Agricultural Statistics Service, 1985, p. 5). Even so, its

livestock sector was twice the size of the crop sector in terms

of cash receipts from sales.

In the study area, York County leads all the other counties

except Lancaster in cattle and hog production. It ranks second

to Adams County in poultry. Overall, its livestock sector is the

second , largest only to Lancaster. As a consequence, York is

second to Lancaster in the amount of manure generated (Figure 10)

in the study area.

74 -

York County has a shrinking agricultural sector. Land in

farms has declined by 25,000 acres since 1969. Starting with the

second largest livestock base (total animal units-- all species)

among the six counties, that base has grown more slowly, both in

absolute and percentage terms, than any of the other counties.

The manure concentration ratio shows a declining trend overall

and was the lowest of any of the counties in 1982. The slight

upturn in the ratio in 1982 reflects a small increase in total

animal units and a small decline in cropland between 1978 and

1982.

Adams County

Adams is primarily a rural county. Its population increased

by a substantial percentage between 1970 and 1980, but the growth

was entir ely in the rural population. While the percentage

increase was substantial, it arose from the relatively small 1970

population base.

Adams County is part of the York metropolitan Statistical

Area. The population density of the county, 131 persons per

square mile, is well below that of the state and the average for

the study area (Table 3). Much of the new residential

construction is on multi-acre lots by persons commuting to jobs

in York, Hanover, Carlisle, Camp Hill, Harrisburg, Pa., and as

far as Washington, D.C.

75 -

more than half of the county is f armland (Figure 5) Cash

receipts from crops and livestock is the most nearly balanced of

any of the counties (Table 7). Adams.. County is the center of

apple production, producing half of the Commonwealth's total crop

(PA Agricultural Statistics Service, 1985, p. 59). The abundance

of land suitable for cropping is indicated by the relatively high

suitability ratio and relatively small amount of forested area

(Table 6).

Livestock provided about 60 percent of the cash receipts of

the farm sector. Aside from an increase in laying hens in 1982,

the animal population have been essentially unchanged over the

period studied. Moreover, the number of animal units for all

species are relatively modest. Thus, the quantity of animal

wastes produced per acre per year is fairly constant and at the

moderate rate of about four tons per acre per year. In absolute

terms, the county ranks fourth among the study counties in the

tons of manure produced per year.

Watershed Summaries

Two of the tributary watersheds of the Susquehanna River

that traverse York and Adams Counties were studied. West

Conewago Creek has its headwaters in Adams County with the middle

and lower reaches in northern York County. South of West

Conewago Creek is Codorus Creek, located within York County.

76 -

West Conewago Creek

West Conewago Creek flows northeastward f rom its headwaters

in the South Mountain Section of the Blue Ridge Province to its

junction with the Susquehanna River, fourteen miles southwest of

Harrisburg. Most of the West Conewago Creek watershed is located

in the Triassic Lowland Section of the Piedmont Province. The

stream drops from an altitude of 1,440 feet at the headwaters to

259 feet at the mouth. The main channel is characterized by a

narrow valley having steep slopes and high hills in the upper

reach, a broad valley having mild slopes and rolling hills in the

middle reach, and a narrow valley having moderate to steep slopes

and mountains in the lower reach.

The watershed encompasses approximately 515 square miles.

In 1973, land uses consisted of 54 percent in agriculture, 34

percent in forest, and 2.2 percent in urban. Generally,

agricultural lands occupy the broad valleys and rolling hills in

the central portion of the watershed and the terrain around the

Little Conewago Creek in the south. The upper and lower reaches

of the basin contain steep slopes unsuitable for farming and are

primarily forested, forming a buffer between agricultural lands

and the stream. Major urban areas are located around Hanover in_

the south and the suburbs of York in the southeast. Small rural

communities are scattered throughout the watershed.

Thirteen municipal wastewater management systems are

currently located in the West Conewago Creek watershed and have a

total average design discharge of 6.1 mgd (Table 19). The

combined discharges of non-public systems is about 0. 38 mgd.

Most municipal STPs lack phospjaorus .removal and nitrification

processes in their waste treatment operations.

TABLE 19

WEST CONEWAGO CREEK WATERSHED
PUBLIC SEWAGE TREATMENT FACILITIES

-----------------------------------------------------------------
FACILITY AVERAGE NITRIFICATION OPERATION TYPE
LOCATION DESIGN FLOW AND DATE OF OF
(MGD) PROS REMOVAL UPGRADE UPGRADE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Hanover Boro STP 2.200 6/74 NEW
Dover Twp. S. A. 1.750 11/73 NEW
New Oxford M. A. 0.825 P N 4/80 NEW
McSherrystown Boro 0.420 4/74 NEW
Dover Boro M. A. 0.150 6/75 NEW
East Berlin M. A. 0.150 6/75 NEW
Reading Twp. M. A. 0.130 3/78 NEW
York Springs M. A. 0.120 10/82 NEW
Lewisberry Boro 0.100 P 1/86 NEW
Lake Meade M. A. 0.080 P N 3/82 NEW
.,York Haven S. A. 0.080 P ? ?
Arendtsville M. A. 0.070 P 4/74 NEW
Possum valley S. A. ? 7/86 NEW

----------------------------------------------------------------

original issue dates of NPDES permits and data f rom GICS

indicate that municipal STPs in the West Conewago Creek watershed

began operating at or above the secondary level of treatment

since the passage of the Clean water Act of 1972. Six STPs were

operating within three years of the Clean Water Act while

additional STPs were installed during later years.

A review of NPDES permitted industrial waste dischargers and

associated SIC codes revealed one industry, W. E. Bittinger

Company (2037), as a nutrient generator . The W. E. Bittinger

Company discharges an average of 278,000 gallons a day of food

processing wastes. The wastes are screened and applied to the

land through spray irrigation and not discharged directly to the

stream.

Codorus Creek

Codorus Creek drains a 278 mi area and flows 48 miles

northeastward from its headwaters to its confluence with the

Susquehanna River. The Codorus Creek watershed lies within the

Piedmont Plateau Province and is characterized by a broad valley

having moderate slopes and rolling hills in the upper and middle

reaches. The lower reach contains a narrow valley having

moderate to steep slopes.

Land use in the Codorus Creek watershed consisted of 53.4

@percent in agriculture, 26.6 percent in forests, and 4.5 percent

in urban as of the early 1976's (Takita, 1977). Urban areas have

increased noticeably in the suburbs around York and Hanover along

major roadways radiating from these two 'urban centers. The..

intensity of urban growth has not only been in residential uses

but also in commercial and industrial developments. This area

undergoing urbanization occupies the lower portion of the

watershed restricting the bulk of agricultural and forest lands

to the broad ridgetops of the upper watershed. As a result, most

agricultural runoff enters Codorus Creek in the upstream portion

of the drainage basin.

Six municipal wastewater management systems a re in the

watershed and contribute a total average design discharge of 43.4

mgd (Table 20). Sixty percent of the treated wastes originates

from the York City STP. with the exception of New Freedom's STP,

most municipal sewage treatment systems in the watershed lack

phosphorus removal and nitrification processes in plant

operations. The Springettsbury Township STP is located

downstream of the water quality station utilized in the analyses,

but was included due to its relatively large contribution of

treated wastes to the Codorus Creek.

TABLE 20

CODORUS CREEK WATERSHED
PUBLIC SEWAGE TREATMENT FACILITIES

----- FACILITY ------ AVERAGE ---- NITRIFICATION --- OPERATION --- TYPE---
LOCATION DESIGN FLOW AND DATE OF OF
(MGD) PHOS REMOVAL UPGRADE UPGRADE

-----------------------------------------------

York City S.A. 26.0 P 6/81 ICT*
Springettsbury Twp. 15.0 N 6/74 NEW
New Freedom Boro 1.35 P N 6/77 NEW
Penn Twp. A. 0.42 3/83 ICT*
Spring Grove Boro 0.33 12/85 NEW
Glen Rock S.A. 0.30 2/81 NEW

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ICT-Increased capacity & treatment

A review of NPDES permitted industrial waste dischargers and

associated SIC codes revealed that 5 of 33 industrial dischargers

80 -

are considered nutrient generators (Table 21). The majority of

the nutrient generating firms in the watershed are activities

food processing and other agricultural related activities.

TABLE 21

CODORUS CREEK WATERSHED
FIRMS CONSIDERED NUTRIENT GENERATORS

FACILITY sic
NAME CODE

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Agway Inc./ York 2879
Rutter's Dairy 2026
Cole Steel/ North 3471
National Can Corp. 3411
Hanover Brands 2034

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Water Quality Data

West Conewago Creek watershed

Data from one water quality station were examined for trends

in nutrient concentrations and loads in West Conewago Creek.

Station WQN0210 represents 510 square miles of a agricultural and

forested watershed.

Graphical and statistical procedures were performed on the

concentration record (1973-1986) and transport record (1973-

1985). The transport record was constructed utilizing mean daily

discharge data at USGS gaging station (01574000) located at the

same site as the water quality network station.

During the 1973-1986 monthly sampling period, total

phosphorus averaged 0.24 mg/1 and ranged from 0.07 mg/l to 1.7

mg1l (Appendix A.6). Average total load for the period was 876
lbs/day or 1.7 lbs/day per mi 2

Time series plots of total phosphorus revealed a regular

seasonal cycle in concentration with elevated values occurring

during late summer to early fall. A visual comparison of the

mean daily discharge time series to that of phosphorus did not

indicate any evidence that concentration fluctuations were the

result of changes in the flow pattern. The transport time series

did not exhibit any apparent trends.

Statistical tests on the phosphorus time series data

indicated an increasing trend in concentration but no trend in

the transport record (Table 22). Results of the FAC procedure

indicated that some process change other than flow has

contributed to rising phosphorus concentrations in West Conewago

Creek.

Total inorganic nitrogen averaged 1.95 mg/l ranging from

0.04 mg/l to 4.6 mg/l. Total nitrate-nitrogen accounted for 93

percent of the inorganic portion. Average daily load of
inorganic nitrogen was 3.17 tons or 12.4 lbs/mi 2 for the period

of study.

TABLE 22

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATION WQN0210

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter CONC LOAD R@GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
----------------- -------- -------- ------------ ----------------
Total PHOS + S 0.02 + S + S OTHER
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - HS - HS 0.03 + S - HS OTHER
Total N02-N - HS - HS 0.14 + HS - HS OTHER
Total N03-N
Total N02-N+NO3-N
Total INORG-N

Time series plots of the various inorganic forms of nitrogen

were visually evaluated for trends. Concentrations of total

ammonia-nitrogen were low and fairly constant with values less

than 0.03 mg/1 during much of the sampling period and showed

little response to fluctuations in streamflow. The plot of total

nitrite-nitrogen revealed decreasing concentrations from late

1976 to mid 1979. Even though the data exhib-its a fair amount of

variability, 71 percent of the concentration values remained at

or below 0.02 mg/l after 1978, whereas only 9 percent of the..

values were equal or less' than 0.02 mg/l before 1979. Nitrate-

nitrogen showed no trends.

Statistical tests showed declining trends in ammonia-

nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen concentration and transport records

(Table 22). Results of the tests on the FACs suggest that some

change has taken place due to causes other than discharge,

resulting in reduced inputs of ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-

nitrogen to West Conewago Creek.

Codorus Creek watershed

Data from two water quality stations were. examined for@

trends in nutrient concentrations and loads on Codorus Creek.

The upstream station, WQN0209, is located above the City of York
on the South Branch of the Codorus Creek and represents 117 mi 2

of a primarily agricultural watershed. Station WQN0207 is

located downstream of York City and surrounding urbanized areas
and covers 265 mi 2 or 95 percent of the watershed.

Graphical and statistical procedures were performed on the

concentration (1973-1986) and transport records (1973-1984) at

both stations. Transport records were constructed utilizing mean

daily discharge data from - USGS gaging station 01575000 for

WQN0209 and station 01575500 for WQN0207. Gaging station

01575000 is located at the sampling location WQN0209.

During the 1973-1986 monthly sampling period, total
phosphorus averaged 0.14 mg/1 or 122 lbs/day per mi2 at the

upstream station (Appendix A.7). The downstream station averaged

2
0.60 mg/l or 780 lbs/day per mi . The increased concentration

values recorded at the downstream station as compared to the

upstream station is indicative of nutrient enriching conditions

in the Codorus.

Time series plots of total phosphorus did not reveal any

visual trends in concentration or loads at either station.

Concentrations of total phosphorus at station WQN0209 were fairly

constant and exhibited little response to fluctuations in mean

daily discharge. Most values varied between 0.04 mg/1 to 0.2

mg/l. At the downstream site, phosphorus concentrations were

more variable with values between 0.02 mg/l and 1.0 mg/l.

However, beginning in 1984, phosphorus concentrations remained

fairly constant staying below 0.5 mg/l. Considering that the.

average concentration is 0.6 mg/l, there should be a declining

trend in total phosphorus.

Statistical tests on the data showed declining trends in

concentrations and loads at the downstream site (WQN0207). No

trends in phosphorus concentrations or loads were found at the

upstream site. The test of FACs indicated that some process

change other than flow has contributed to declining phosphorus

concentrations in the lower reach of Codorus Creek.

Total inorganic nitrogen at the upstream and downstream

stations averaged 3.7 mg/1 and 4.3 mg/l, respectively (Appendix

A.7). Mean ammonia-nitrogen concentration was much higher at

station WQN0207 (1.1 mg/1) as compared to station WQN0209 (0.12

mg/1).

85 -

For station WQN0209, ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen

time-series plots exhibited very little variability in

concentration values during the 1973 to 1986 period. Most values

of ammonia-nitrogen varied between 0.01 mg/l to 0.03 mg/l while

most nitrite-nitrogen values varied between 0.02 mg/l to 0.04

mg/l. Trends in the concentration and transport time series were

not apparent for these two parameters. Concentrations of

ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen were much higher and more

variable at the downstream station (WQN0207) than at the upstream

station (WQN0209). Beginning in 1980, ammonia-nitrogen values

became more variable ranging anywhere from 0.05 mg/l to 5.6 mg/l,

whereas before 1980, concentration values remained below 2.0

mg/l. Nitrite-nitrogen concentrations were also much higher at

the downstream station and exhibited a time series pattern

similar to that of the upstream station.

Total nitrate-nitrogen concentration showed some relation to

streamflow. However, concentrations varied more sharply during

seasonal cycles than during flow fluctuations. High nitrate-

nitrogen concentrations occurred late spring through,. early fall

while lower nitrate-nitrogen concentrations occurred late fall

through early winter. Since 1982, the lower concentrations

expected from late fall through early winter have gradually

increased thus reducing the range of concentrations within each

seasonal cycle. Although the nitrate-nitrogen time series

followed the same pattern as at the upstream station, the monthly

concentration values generally were slightly less.

86 -

Statistical tests of the nitrogen data showed increasing

trends in concentration for three parameters (organic nitrogen,
NO 3-N, and NO 2_N+N0 3-N) at the upstream station (WQN0209)
(Table 23). Results of the FAC tests indicated that some process

change other than flow have increased concentration to the

reaches of Codorus Creek. The nitrite-nitrogen data shows a

decreasing trends in concentration but not in load. The ammonia-

nitrogen data shows both decreasing trends in concentration and

load. The regression of both nitrite-nitrogen and ammonia-

nitrogen on streamflow was not significant, therefore, the FAC's

were not tested.

Trend testing results of the nitrogen data at the downstream

station ( WQN0207) differed from that of the upstream station

(WQN0209). The ammonia-nitrogen data indicates of an increasing

trend in concentration and load (Table 23). The FAC data showed

a highly significant upward trend in ammonia-nitrogen. This

suggests some change has taken place, resulting in greater inputs

of ammonia-nitrogen to the Codorus Creek.

Tests on total inorganic nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen time

series from the downstream station (WQN0207) resulted in upward

trends in concentration but no apparent trends in loads.

However, the analyses of the flow-adjusted-concentrations

indicated downward trends in the two parameters. The opposing

trends suggest that the upward trend in the concentration time

series may be a consequence of flow conditions which has masked

the effect of other processes contributing to reduced inputs of

inorganic nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen to the stream.

TABLE 23

TREND TESTING RESULTS BASED ON SEASONAL KENDALL'S TAU
FOR STATIONS WQN0207 AND WQN0209

-W-Q-NO--2-0-7--(-D-o-w-n-s-t-r-e-am --- st__at__io_n__) -------------------------------------
-- -----------------------------------------------------------
Parameter CONCEN LOAD R@GRESSION PAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process

----------------- -------- -------- ------------ ----------------
Total PHOS - HS - HS 0.04 + S - HS OTHER
Total NH3-N+NH4-N + S + HS 0.41 + S + HS OTHER
Total N02-N + S 0.02 - S - HS OTHER
Total N03-N
Total N02-N+NO3-N
Total INORG-N + HS 0.03 - S - S OTHER

-----------------------------------------------------------------
WQN0209 (Upstream station)

------- --------- --------
Parameter CONCEN LOAD R@GRESSION FAC
Slope Slope R Slope Slope Process
- -------- -------- -------- 7--- ----------------
Total PHOS
Total NH3-N+NH4-N - HS HS
Total N02-N - HS
Total N03-N + S 0.19 + HS + S OTHER
Total N02-N+NO3-N + S 0.19 + HS + S OTHER
Total INORG-N + S 0.19 + HS + S OTHER

Assessment

The evaluation of the water quality data indicates the

occurrence of nutrients in West Conewago Creek may be due to

88 -

agricultural activities. The watershed contains more than half

of its land area in agriculture and ranks second in livestock

population of the watersheds investigated to that of the

Conestoga River watershed (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1969, 1974,

1978, 1982). The contribution of nutrients from STPs and

industrial point sources are relatively insignificant, given

three small total combined discharge.

The analysis of nutrient data for West Conewago Creek

indicates a rising trend in total phosphorus concentration and

declining trends in ammonia-nitrogen and nitrite-nitrogen

(Table 22).

one possible explanation of. the rising trend in phosphorus

is as follows. Production of livestock on larger and fewer farm

units in animal feedlots or barn yards in close proximity to

streams may be viewed as "agricultural point sources" (Porter,

1975). In the Conewago Creek watershed, the livestock

populations have remained fairly constant but the type of

livestock has changed -to animals that produce higher nutrient

concentrations in their wastes (Table 5 and Figures 5, 6, 7, 8).

This may be a cause of increasing phosphorus concentrations in

the West Conewago Creek where feeding and holding areas are

located near stream channels.

If agricultural "point sources" are influencing nutrient

concentrations in West Conewago Creek, a similar increase in

nitrogen concentrations would be expected. However, statistical

analyses indicate that decreasing trends in ammonia-nitrogen and

itrate-nitrogen are occurring. This apparent contradiction may

be the result from two processes: the complex interactions of

chemical, physical, and biological processes acting in the

nitrogen cycle on the shrinking agricultural sector and declining

trend in the manure concentration ratio.

The surface waters of the Codorus Creek watershed suffer

from nutrient enrichment problems associated with domestic sewage

and industrial waste discharges, urban runoff, and agricultural

sources. Water quality surveys conducted by the Bureau of water

Quality Management (1972, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1986) show many

degraded stream segments throughout the watershed.

Based on average concentrations and trends, inorganic forms

of nitrogen seem to be more of a problem than total phosphorous.

The presence of high ammonia-nitrogen concentrations at the

downstream station indicates pollution from raw sewage. Ammonia-

nitrogen is unstable in aerated water and.is generally considered

as a nutrient located near the discharge source. The relative

close proximity of the water quality station to the City of York

suggests that urban runoff and the York municipal STP are the

sources of these nutrients.

Agricultural runoff and discharges from the activities of a

growing population and economy also contribute nutrients to the

90 -

streams of the watershed. The general nutrient enrichment

problems seen in the lower reaches of.Codorus Creek are probably

the accumulated effect of upstream discharges, agricultural

runoff, York Municipal STP discharges, urban runoff and

industrial point sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Monthly water quality data from ten stations in seven

watersheds of the Lower Susquehanna River Basin were analyzed for

trends in phosphorus and nitrogen concentration and loads. The

data generally represents a period from 1973 to 1986. Changes in

land use activities in six counties were also investigated to

make land use/nutrient trend comparisons and identify any

significant relationships.

Time series plots and the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall Tau

test trends were utilized to detect the presence of monotonic

'trends or changes in nutrient concentrations and loads. where

significant trends in concentration or load were detected,

regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of flow on

those trends. The Seasonal Kendall Tau test was applied to the

residuals (FACs) from the regression to determine whether the

trends were.due to flow or other causes. Ideally, instantaneous

discharges should have been used in the regressions instead of

mean daily values which may have resulted in better correlations.

The analysis was hampered by the lack of instantaneous discharge

data associated with the water quality data. Thus, the

collection of ancillary data (i.e. instantaneous discharge,..

temperature, conductivity and pH) at the time of sample

collection should be a part of all sampling programs.

During the period of study, the study area has experienced

major changes in population and land use. Farmland has been

converted to suburban uses. Changes in farming practices have

resulted in more intense use of agricultural land and increased

the amount of manure generated and applied to the land. T hese

changes in man's activities have affected phosphorus and nitrogen

concentrations and loads in some of the streams investigated.

The results of this investigation indicate that nonpoint as well

as point sources have a major influence on certain segments of

the streams evaluated.

The Conodoguinet Creek is primarily affected by point

sources. Changes in the water quality occurred simultaneously

during a period of STP installations and upgrades. The Carlisle

STP probably had the greatest impact on observed trends in

nutrients. Decreasing trends occurred in phosphorus, ammonia-

nitrogen, and nitrite-nitrogen concentration and load.

Incre asing trends occurred in nitrate-nitrogen and total

inorganic nitrogen concentrations.

Water quality data from Yellow Breeches Creek suggested the

absence of major degrading influences and limited impacts from

man's activities due to the large proportion of the watershed in

forest areas. Remaining areas consisted of low intensity

agriculture and medium density residential. All nutrients showed

declining trends in concentration or load; however, these trends

can not be attributed to any changes in land use based on

available data.

The implementation of phosphorus reduction and removal

techniques at STPs in the Swatara Creek watershed coincided with

decreasing trends in phosphorus load. Streams draining

agricultural areas of the watershed exhibited increasing trends

in nitrate-nitrogen and inorganic nitrogen concentrations. This

suggests that point and nonpoint source contributions play an

important role in nutrient loads to Swatara Creek.

The highest concentrations and loadings of nutrients were

recorded on the Conestoga River, largely because of intense

agricultural activities. The most dominant agricultural

activities are the growth in livestock and increased manure

production. From 1969 to 1982 annual manure production increased

from 10 to 14 tons/acre in Lancaster County as compared to 5 to 6

tons/acre in the remaining counties of the study area. The

Conestoga River also receives 50 percent of Lancaster County's

wastewater discharges from STPs.

In the Conestoga Watershed, two stations were included in

trends analyses: the upper station represented inputs from

agricultural activities while the lower station represented

additional inputs from the City of Lancaster. The trends in the

various nitrogen species at the lower station were flow related.

However, decreasing trends in phosphorus concentration and load

resulted from processes other than flow. At the upper station,

upstream of Lancaster City, statistically significant decreasing

trends were found in phosphorus, ammonia-nitrogen, and nitrite-

nitrogen concentration and loads, but increasing trends occurred

in nitrate-nitrogen and inorganic nitrogen.

The Sherman Creek watershed is characterized as a rural,

mountainous region with small isolated areas of population and

agricultural activities. As a result, the surface waters are

relatively pristine. Only two parameters, nitrite-nitrogen and

ammonia-nitrogen, exhibited trends and these trends indicated

decreasing concentrations and loads resulting from processes

other than flow. These trends can not be attributed to any

changes in past land use activities.

The evaluation of the water quality data in the West

Conewago Creek indicated the occurrence of nutrients may have

resulted from agricultural activities. The contribution from

municipal and industrial point sources is relatively

insignificant. The nutrient data showed a rising trend in

phosphorus concentration and declining trends in ammonia-nitrogen
and nitrite-nitrogen. The declining trends in the nitrogen

species may be the result of a shrinking agricultural sector and

declining trend in the manure concentration ratio.

The surface waters of the Codorus Creek watershed suffer

.from nutrient enrichment problems associated with domestic sewage

and industrial waste discharges, urban runoff, and agricultural

sources. Increasing trends in ammonia-nitrogen at the station

downstream of urban influences opposes decreasing trends in

ammonia-nitrogen from the station on the South Branch of Codorus.

The increasing ammonia-nitrogen trend was probably due to a

combination of point source discharges and urban runoff.

In summary, the total phosphorus concentration in the region

shows a general downward trend while total inorganic nitrogen is

trending upward. The results of statistical analyses indicate

that the majority of the trends are due to processes other than

that of flow. These processes are likely the result of man's

activities.

REFERENCES

Bauer, K. M., Glauz, W. D., and Floro, J. D., 1984, Methodologies
For Determining Trends In Water Quality Data: Industrial
Environmental Research Laboratories, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

Bureau of Water Quality Management, 1975, Commonwealth of
Pennsylvania 1975 Water Quality Inventory: Bureau of Water
Quality Management, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources.

Bureau of Water Quality Management, 1977, Commonwealth of
Pennsylvania 1977 Water Quality Inventory: Bureau of Water
Quality Management, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources.

Bureau of Water Quality management, 1980, Commonwealth Of
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Quality Management, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources.

Bureau of water Quality Management 1982 Commonwealth Of
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Resources.

Bureau of water Quality Management 1986. Commonwealth Of
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Quality Management, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources.

Chesapeake Bay Program, 1982, Chesapeake Bay Program Technical
Studies - A Synthesis: U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, D.C., September 1982.

Chesapeake Citizen Report, 1987, The Conestoga--Pennsylvania's
Historic River: Chesapeake Citizens Report, Baltimore, MD,
p. 7, Summer 1987.

Corps of Engineers, 1972, The Codorus Creek Wastewater Management..
Study -- Summary Report and conE-lusions: Corps of
Engineers, Baltimore District, Baltimore, MD, August 1972.

Dept. of Environmental Resources, 1980, The State Water Plan:
office of Resources management, Bureau of Resources
Programming, Division of Comprehensive Resources
Programming, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

97 -

Fishel, D. K., and Richardson, J. E., 1985, Results Of A
Preimpoundment Water-Quality Study of Swatara Creek,
Pennsylvania: U.S. Geological Survey, Water-Resources
Investigations Report 85-4023, Prepared in cooperation with
the Pennsylvania Department of Environmen@al Resources,
Bureau of State Parks.

Hart, J. F., 1968, Loss And Abandonment Of Cleared Farm Land In
The Eastern United States: Annuals of the Association of
American Geographers, 58:417-40, (Cited in Zeimetz, 1976).

Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R., and Smith, R. A., 1982, Techniques
Of Trend Analysis For monthly water Quality Data: Water
Resources Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, p. 107-121, February
1982.

Kendall, M. G., 1975, Rank Correlation Methods: Charles Griffen,
London.

Lovejoy, S. B. and Napier, T. L., editors, 1986, Conserving Soil:
Insights From Socioeconomic Research: Soil Conservation
Society of American, Ankeay, Iowa.

Midwest Plan Service, 1985, Livestock Waste Facility Handbook:
Publication No. MWPS-18.

Pennsylvania Agricultural Statistics Service, 1970, 1970 Crop And
Livestock Annual Summary: Pennsylvania Agricultural
Statistic Service, Harrisburg, PA.

Pennsylvania Agricultural Statistics Service 1975, 1975 Crop And
Livestock Annual Summary: Pennsylvania Agricultural
Statistic Service, Harrisburg, PA.

Pennsylvania Agricultural Statistics Service 1980, 1980 Crop And
Livestock Annual Summary: Pennsylvania Agricultural
Statistic Service, Harrisburg, PA.

Pennsylvania Agriculture Statistics Service 1985, 1985 Crop And
Livestock Annual summary: Pennsylvania Agricultural
Statistic Service, Harrisburg, PA.

Pennsylvania Department of Commerce, 1973, 1973 Pennsylvania
Statistical Abstract: 15th Edition, Pennsylvania Department
of Commerce, Harrisburg, PA, Table 9.

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, 1973,
Pennsylvania water Quality Network Sampling Station
Descriptions: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources, Publication No. 33, August 1973.

Porter, K. S., editor, 1975, Nitrogen And Phosphorus Food
Production, Waste And The Environment: New York State
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Ithaca, New York,
Ann Arbor Science Publishes, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI..

Shaw, L. C., 1984, Gazetteer Of Streams, Part II: Of f ice of
Resources Management, Pennsylvania Department of
Environmental Resources, Harrisburg, PA, Water Resources
Bulletin No. 16.

Sherwood, D. A., 1983, Assessment Of Nonpoint-Source Nutrient
Discharges From The Switzer Creek Basin, Steuben County, New
York: U.S. Geological Survey, Water-Resources Investigations
Report 83-4278, Ithaca, NY, Prepared in cooperation with the
Susquehanna River Basin Commission.

Smith, R. A., Hirsch, R. M., and Slack, J. R., 1980, A Study Of
Trends In Total Phosphorus Measurements At Stations In The
NASQAN Network: U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report.

Smith, R. A., Alexander, R. B., and Wolman, M. G., 1987, Water
Quality Trends In.The Nation's Rivers: Science, Vol. 235,
p. 1607-1615., March 27, 1987.

Soil Conservation Service, 1985, National Resources Inventory:
Pennsylvania County Data, U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Soil Conservation Service, Harrisburg, PA.

Swartz, Pa ul 0., 1987, Nutrients: The Missing Link: Chesapeake
Citizen Report, Baltimore, MD, Winter/Spring 1-987, p. 5-7.

Takita, C. S., 1977, Nonpoint Source Pollution Assessment Of The
Lower Susquehanna River Basin: Susquehanna River Basin
Commission, Harrisburg, PA, Publication No. 54.

Taylor, L. E. and Werkheiser, W. H., 1984, Groundwater Resources
Of The Lower Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania: Bureau
of Topographic and GeologiE-al Survey, Office of Resources
Management, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources, Harrisburg, PA, Water Resource Report 57,
Prepared in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin
Commission.

The Patriot, 1986, Harrisburg Area's Rank Slips Three Notches In
Census Bureau Report: The Patriot, Harrisburg, PA, July 30,
1986, p. A-12.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1971, Census Of Population: 1970,
General Population Characteristics: Final Report PC(l)-B40,
Pennsylvania, U.S. Government Printing office, Washington,
D.C., p. Appendix 1, Appendix 2.

99 -

U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981, Final Population And Housing
Counts: PHC8D-V-40, Pennsylvania., Washington, D.C.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1983, 1982 Census of Agriculture:
Vol. 1, Geographic Area Series, Part 38, Pennsylvania State
and County Data, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1963, Soil Survey York County,
Pennsylvania: Soil Conservation Service, USDA, U.S.
Government Printing office, Washington, D.C., Series 1959,
No. 23.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1972, Soil Survey Dauphin County,
Pennsylvania: Soil Conservation Service, USDA, U.S.
Government Printing office, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1985, Soil Survey of Lancaster
County, Pennsylvania: Soil Conservation Service, USDA, U.S.
Government Printing office, Washington, D.C.

Zeimetz, K. A., et al., 1976, Dynamics Of Land Use In Fast Grown
Areas: . Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Washington, D.C., Agricultural Economic Report
No. 325.

100

APPENDIX A.1

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR 1973-1986
OBSERVATIONS AT STATIONS WQN0213 AND WQN0240
IN THE CONODOGUINET CREEK WATERSHED

WQN0213

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter Obs. Mean Stn Dev Max Med Min

--------- ---- ---- --- --- --- --- ---
Flow, inst-cfs 134 505 598 3992 306 81
PHOS, mg/1 148 0.17 0.12 1.33 0.13 0.02
NH3-N+NH4-N, " 138 0.14 0.11 0.72 0.11 0.01
N02-N, 140 0.04 0.03 0.18 0.03 <0.01
N03-N, 139 3.53 1.31 12.86 3.30 0.21
N02-N+NO3-N, 139 3.57 1.31 12.91 3.40 0.22
INORG-N, 139 3.70 1.32 13.06 3.55 0.35

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
PHOS, tons/day 130 0.24 0.43 3.30 0.13 <0.01
NH3-N+NH4-N, 121 0.17 0.27 2.58 0.10 <0.01
N02-N, 122 0.04 0.50 0.47 0.03 <0.01
N03-N, 122 4.21 5.03 36.2 2.58 <0.01
N02-N+NO3-N, 122 4.26 5.06 36.7 2.61 <0.01
INORG-N, 122 4.42 5.29 39.3 2.71 0.16

-------- -------------------------------------------------
WQN0240

----- -----------------------------------------------------------
Parameter Obs. Mean Stn Dev Max Med Min

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flowj inst-cfs 123 682 1148 10648 340 92
PHOS, mg/l 139 0.17 0.18 2.00 0.13 0.02
NH3-N+NH4-N, 140 0.11 0.11 0.91 0.08 0.01
N02-N, 141 0.03 0.02 0.18 0.03 <0.01
N03-N, 141 3.34 1.18 9.45 3.11 0.05
N02-N+NO3-N, 141 3.37 1.18 9.46 3.18 0.07
INORG-N, 140 3.51 1.15 9.47 3.34 0.14

----- -------- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
@PHOS, tons/day 121 0.41 1.26 12.1 0.14 0.01
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 122 0.24 0.79 7.18 0.08 <0.01
N02-N, of 122 0.07 0.14 1.20 0.04 <0.01
N03-N, it 122 5.43 6.45 33.2 2.94 0.05
N02-N+NO3-N, 11 122 5.50 6.56 33.8 2.99 0.04
INORG-N, 122 5.80 7.12 38.0 3.03 0.08

----------------------------------------------------------------

101

APPENDIX A.2

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR 1973-1986
OBSERVATIONS AT STATION WQN0212
IN THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK WATERSHED

P--a-r-am--e-t-e-r --------- Ob--s M-e-an- ----- S-tn--D--ev- ----- M-ax- ------ m-ed- ----- M-in- ---

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow, inst-cfs 126 227 289 1800 237 79
PHOS, mg/l 136 0.11 0.17 1.80 0.08 0.03
NH3-N+NH4-N, 134 0.06 0.05 0.24 0.05 0.01
N02-N, 134 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.02 <0.01
N03-N, 134 1.88 0.50 4.18 1.81 0.34
N02-N+NO3-N, 134 1.89 0.50 4.20 1.82 0.37
INORG-N, 134 1.96 0.52 4.32 1.88 0.44
PHOS,--tons/day -119-- --0.11-- ---0.20-- --1.28- --0.05- --0.01-
NH3-N+NH4-N, 115 0.06 0.10 0.73 0.03 <0.01
N02-N, 115 0.02 0.02 0.20 0.01 <0.01
N03-N, 115 1.52 1.21 8.26 1.20 0.12
N02-N+NO3-N, 115 1.53 1.23 8.46 1.21 0.13
INORG-N, 115 1*60 1,31 9*19 1*26 0*15

-----------------------------------------------------------------

102

APPENDIX A.3

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR
1973-1986 OBSERVATIONS AT STATION WQN0211
IN THE SWATARA CREEK WATERSHED

P--a-r-am--e-t-e-r --------- Ob--s M-e-an- ----- St-n--D--ev- ----- M-a-x ------ M-ed- ----- M-in----

Flow, inst-cfs 134 505 598 3992 306 31
PHOS, mg/l 148 0.25 0.80 9.64 0.13 0.02
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 139 0.14 0.11 0.72 b.11 <0.01
N02-N, 19 140 0.04 0.03 0.17 0.03 <0.01
N03-N, 139 3.53 1.31 12.86 3.30 0.21
N02-N+NO3-N, 139 .3.57 1.31 12.91 3.39 0.22
INORG-N, 139 .3.71 1.32 13.06 3.55 0.35
PHOS,--tons/day -103-- --0.60 -- --- 1.64-- -14.62- --0.20- -0.05--
NH3-N+NH4-N, 102 0.46 1.00 8.95 0.19 <0.01
N02-N, 103 0.10 0.19 1.65 0.05 <0.01
N03-N, 103 6.97 7.64 52.8 4.63 0.29
N02-N+NO3-N, 103 7.08 7.79 54.4 7.08 0.33
INORG-N, , 102 7.53 8.69 63.4 4.77 0.40

-----------------------------------------------------------------

103

APPENDIX A.4

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR 1973-1986
OBSERVATIONS AT STATIONS WQN0205 AND WQN0231
IN THE CONESTOGA CREEK WATERSHED

-W-Q-NO--2-0-5--(-U-p-s-t-r-e-a-m--s-t-a-t-i-o-n-) ---------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter Obs. Mean Stn Dev Max Med Min

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow, inst-cfs 147 406 538 4270 250 46
PHOS, Mg/l 154 0.28 0.28 3.0 0.24 0.06
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 144 0.25 0.93 11.0 0.12 0.01
N02-N, it 145 0.06 0.04 0.35 0.06 <0.01
N03-N, 145 6.73 2.01 11.6 6.60 0.39
N02-N+NO3-N, 145 6.80 2.00 11.7 6.67 0.46
INORG-N, 145 7.05 2.16 17.3 6.83 0.90

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
PHOS, tons/day 144 0.29 0.59 5.30 0.15 0.03
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 134 0.32 1.23 13.0 0.09 <0.01
N02-N, 135 0.06 0.06 0.39 0.05 <0.01
N03-N, 135 7.06 8.55 70.5 4.13 0.58
N02-N+NO3-N, 135 7.12 8.59 70.9 4.22 0.59
INORG-N, 135 7.44 8.98 73.1 4.28 0.59

-----------------------------------------------------------------
WQN0231 (Downstream station)

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter obs. Mean Stn Dev Max Med Min

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow inst-cfs 147 510 670 5252 322 57
PHOS' mg/1 155 0.59 0.41 3.86 0.51 <0.01
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 145 0.57 0.69 5.5 0.40 0.02
N02-N, 145 0.17 0.17 1.56 0.13 <0.01
N03-N, 145 6.49 2.11 14.2 6.41 0.39
N02-N+NO3-N, 145 6.66 2.08 14.3 6.60 0.64
INORG-N, 145 7.23 2.19 17.3 7.12 0.96

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
PHOS, tons/day 144 0.72 1.20 9.64 0.43 0.02
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 135 0.62 0.85 7.94 0.37 <0.01
N02-N, if 135 0.16 0.14 0.98 0.13 <0.01
N03-N, 134 8.75 10.16 68.1 5.19 0.66
N02-N+NO3-N, 135 8.87 10.19 68.7 5.26 0.86
INORG-N, 135 9.48 10.63 71.7 5.72 0.91

-----------------------------------------------------------------

104

APPENDIX A.5

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR 1973-1986
OBSERVATIONS AT STATION WQN0243
IN THE SHERMAN CREEK WATERSHED

Parameter -------- Obs.----Mean ---- Stn-Dev ---- Max ----- Med ---- Min ---

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow, inst-cfs 57 303 406 2712 166 31
PHOS, mg/l 62 0.06 0.05 0.33 0.05 0.01
NH3-N+NH4-N, 63 0.05 0.06 0.46 0.05 0.01
N02-N, 63 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.01 <0.01
N03-N, 63 1.07 0.55 3.08 1.0 0.14
N02-N+NO3-N, 63 1.09 0.55 3.09 1.02 0.15
INORG-N, 63 1.15 0.58 3.15 1.12 0.18
PHOS,--tons/day --56-- --0.07 -- --- 0.21-- --1.46- --0.02- -<0.01-
NH3-N+NH4-N, 1- 57 0.07 0.20 1.46 0.02 <0.01
N02-N, It 57 0.02 0.03 0.15 <0.01 <0.01
N03-N, it 57 0.93 1.11 4.97 0.44 0.02
N02-N+N03-N, 57 0.44 1.14 5.12 0.44 0.02
INORG-N, 57 1.02 1.28 6.59 0.45 0.02

-----------------------------------------------------------------

105

APPENDIX A.6

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR 1973-1986
OBSERVATIONS AT STATION WQN0210
IN THE WEST CONEWAGO CREEK WATERSHED

-P-a-r-am-e-t-e-r --------- O-b-s M-e-an- ----- St-n--D--ev- ----- M-a-x ------ M-ed- ----- M-in----

---------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow, inst-cfs 141 630 1253 8280 284 29
PHOS, mg/l 135 0.24 0.18 1.70 0.21 0.07
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 134 0.11 0.14 0.84 0.07 0.01
N02-N, to 134 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.02 <0.01
N03-N, 134 1.82 1.09 4.38 1.78 0.02
N02-N+N03-N, 134 1.84 1.09 4.40 1.82 0.02
INORG-N, 134 1.95 1.13 4.57 1.90 0.04

----- -------- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PHOS, tons/day 128 0.44 1.34 11.7 0.12 0.03
NH3-N+NH4-N, 127 0.23 0.68 5.62 0.04. <0.01
N02-N, 127 0.06 0.17 1.52 0.01 <0.01
N03-N, 127 2.88 4.76 39.3 1.15 <0.01
N02-N+NO3-N, 121 2.94 4.90 40.8 1.17 <0.01
INORG-N, 127, 3*17 5,44 44*6 1*21 <0*01,
-----------------------------------------------------------------

106

APPENDIX A.7

SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED PARAMETERS FOR 1973-1986
OBSERVATIONS AT STATIONS WQN0207 & WQN0209
IN THE CODORUS CREEK WATERSHED

-----------------------------------------------------------------
WQN0207 (Downstream station)

------- ----------- --------
Parameter obs. Mean Stn Dev Max Med Min

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow, inst-cfs 132 311 501 4760 183 33
PHOS, mg/1 147 0.60 1.06 11.40 0.36 0.02
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 137 1.11 1.11 5.61 0.73 0.05
N02-N, 136 0.07 0.05 0.46 0.07 0.02
N03-N, 137 3.12 1.07 5.77 3.24 0.47
N02-N+NO3-N, 136 3.20 1.08 5.94 3.29 0.53
INORG-N, 136 4.32 1.18 7.81 4.28 1.10

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
PHOS, tons/day 129 0.39 0.81 7.83 0.20 <0.01
NH3-N+NH4-N, 118 0.50 0.41 2.97 0.40 0.03
N02-N, 118 0.52 0.08 0.72 0.03 <0.01
N03-N, 118 2.47 3.45 24.16 1.44 0.21
N02-N+NO3-N, 118 2.53 3.50 24.88 1.47 0.22
INORG-N, 118 3.02 3.82 27.06 1.83 0.33

-----------------------------------------------------------------
WQN0209 (Upstream station)
Parameter -------- Obs.----Mean ---- Stn-Dev ---- Max ----- Med --- Min

--------------- ------ -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Flow, inst-cfs 132 125 238 2340 71 1.3
PHOSi mg/1 129 0.14 0.22 2.30 0.11 0.04
NH3-@+NH4-N, 127 0.12 0.17 1.47 0.07 0.01
N02-N, 127 0.03 0.02 0.12 0.03 <0.01
N03-N, 127 3.55 0.85 5.48 3.63 1.07
N02-N+NO3-N, 127 3.58 0.85 5.50 3.66 1.10
INORG-N, 127 3.70 0.84 5.57 3.77 1.17
PHOS,--tons/day -120-- --0.06-- 0.21 --1.90- --0.02- -<0.01-
NH3-N+NH4-N, 11 116 0.04 0.12 1.07 0.01 <0.01
N02-N, it 117 0.01 0.03 0.29 0.01L <0.01
N03-N, 117 1.13 1.85 16.55 0.67 <0.01
N02-N+N03-N, 117 1.14 1.88 16.84 0.67 <0.01
INORG-N, 116 1.18 2.00 17.92 0.65 <0.01

-----------------------------------------------------------------

107

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