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78* 76* 36' 74o 10 W- CAPE H 80 3, PRODU(YTgGfNa EFFE%,m- C ENCLOSED R9t 74' 39 F PROJECTED Fi C SOUTH C@LROLI &R1--PffE---.* WILMING 44 South Carolina 3 D-@. Ho CHARLESTO A&041-1 SAVAN-N Georgia 77 BRUNSWICK JACK ONVILLE--.- 380.62 ST. AU6 INE 6R574 ido 1995 rs U Mv DAY A. 8 E A CINX -Ak. 82* 80o 78o PRODUCTION EFFECTS OF A GREENHOUSE ENCLOSED NURSERY SYSTEM ON THE PROJECTED FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF A SOUTH CAROLINA MARINE SHRIMP FARM by Raymond J. Rhodes' S. Sureshwaran2 Carol Greene2 Craig L. Browdy3 3 John D. Holloway, Jr. Tzachi M. Samocha' Economic Analysis and Seafood Marketing Program office of Fisheries Management Division of Marine Resources S.C. Department of Natural Resources Post Office Box 12559 Charleston, SC 29422-2559 and 2 Department of Agribusiness and Economics South Carolina State University Campus Post Office Box 7282 Orangeburg, SC 29117 and Waddell Mariculture Research and Development Center Marine Resources Research Institute Division of Marine Resources S.C. Department of Natural Resources 0 Post Office Box 809 .0 Bluffton, SC 29910 and Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Shrimp Mariculture Project 4301 Waldron Road Corpus Christi, TX 78418 This work was partially funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as administered by the Oceanic Institute/Gulf Coast -3) Research Laboratory Consortium. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Oceanic Institute, S.C. Department of Natural Resources, or S.C. State University. Any commercial product or trade name mentioned herein is not to be construed as an C" endorsement. US Department of Commerce NOAA Coastal Services Center Library 2234 South Hobson Avenue C-3 Charleston, SC 29405-2413 LAJ C3 Table of Contents Page List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Methods and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Growout Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Nursery System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Facility Design and Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Production Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Major Financial and Operating Assumptions . . . . . 6 Alternative Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Literature Cited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 The South Carolina Department of Natural Resources prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, sex, national origin, handicap or age. Direct all inquires to the Office of Personnel, PO Box 167, Columbia, SC 29202. LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 1. Summary of Facility and Equipment Costs for a Hypothetical 24-ha (water area) Penaeus vannamei Shrimp Farm without,a Nursery System in South Carolina, 1994 8 2. Projected Annual Income Statement for Operating Years Three Through Ten and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis for a Hypothetical 24-ha Penaeus vannamei Shrimp Farm without a Nursery System in South Carolina . . . . . 9 3. Summary of Additional Facility and Equipment Costs for a Greenhouse Enclosed Nursery System on a Hypothetical Penaeus vannamei 24-ha Shrimp Farm in South Carolina, 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 4. Projected Annual Income Statement for Operating Years Three Through Ten and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis for a Hypothetical 24-ha Penaeus vannamei Shrimp Farm with a Greenhouse Enclosed Nursery System in South Carolina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 5. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis for the Alternative Scenarios for a Hypothetical Penaeus vannamei Shrimp Farm with and without a nursery system in South Carolina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE, 1. Schematic Diagram of Raceway System . . . . . . . . . . 1S 2. Schematic Diagram of Greenhouse Enclosure . . . . . . . 16 SMOMRY 70*-., shrimp harvested at an average size of 17g, and an South Carolina's climate ex-pond price of $4.95/kg. In restricts marine shrimp another scenario, the effects growing to one season of five of including a greenhouse to seven months, which is only enclosed nursery system are long enough to produce one evaluated. The nursery system crop per year. This is is assumed to only supply considerably less than in the about 20% of the farm's PL Latin American and Southeast stocking requirements, and the Asian countries where two or remaining 80*1 is directly more crops are grown each stocked. Survival rates are year. For South Carolina assumed to be 80% in the shrimp producers to be nursery phase and 75*1 in the competitive and recover growout phase for an overall capital cost, they must aggregate survival rate of maximize production during 60'1. Larger shrimps (R = 20g) this limited growing season. are produced when a nursery is utilized, fetching a price of The utilization of $5.10/kg. The effects of greenhouse enclosed nursery alternative prices and raceways may be a viable survival rates are examined in method of increasing the four other scenarios. growing season in South Carolina. Postlarvae (PL) are The.total initial kept in nursery raceways until investment in facilities and they reach the juvenile stage equipment to begin a P. and are then transferred to vannamei growout shrimp farm growout ponds. Experimental with a greenhouse enclosed research in South Carolina and nursery system is $1.1 other states indicates that million. This represents a nursery systems can improve $103,000 increase in the production (i.e. total investment from a facility quantity of shrimp harvested which only contains a growout and average harvest size) of farm. After the second year, shrimp farms. Consequently, when the farm produces at full the objective of this analysis capacity, the projected net is to simulate the comparative cash flow is $397,000. This financial performance of a is a $56,000 per annum growout shrimp farm with and increase compared to the base without a nursery system in case scenario without a S-outh Carolina. The nursery system. hypothetical shrimp farm described in this report The 10-year projected includes 24 ponds, each 1 modified internal rate of hectare (ha) in size, located return (MIRR) before income on 31 ha of land near a salt taxes for the growout farm water source. The base with the nursery system, scenario for growout assumes a 18.9%, is marginally higher stocking density of 80 than in the base scenario, postlarvae(PL) /M2 , an 17.9% without the nursery. aggregate survival rate of The projected net present 2 value (NPV) with the nursery Carolina, with one-fifth of system, $384,000, is also the nation's cultured output, higher than the base scenario, is the second largest farmed $259,000. The internal rate shrimp producing state. of return (IRR), NPV and MIRR were sensitive to changes in Commercial cultivation of the base case prices and marine shrimp in earthen ponds survival rates. However, in or impoundments in South all scenarios discussed in Carolina is climatically this report, the IRR and MIRR restricted to producing one are higher than the assumed crop per year, over a five to 15'1 risk-adjusted cost of seven month period. This is capital. considerably less than in the Latin American and Southeast Given the marginal Asian countries where two or increase in NPV when partially more crops are commonly grown stocking the growout facility each year. For shrimp with nursery derived shrimp, producers in temperate regions it is questionable whether the to be profitable, they present nursery system is a generally must cost viable financial alternative effectively maximize solely based upon increasing production during this limited aggregate yields and harvest growing season, perhaps by sizes. However, additional incorporating advanced financial analyses are needed techniques into farming focusing on possible nursery operations. In addition, the operation risks, nursery/farm short window of opportunity size economies of scale and for stocking coupled with nursery effects on coping with limited supplies of healthy PL supply risks. Under postlarvae (PL) have forced conditions where PL supplies commercial growers to stock are limited and/or are of late in the season, reduce questionable health or stocking densities and/or not fitness, nursery systems may stock any or all ponds in a be the only practical way for given season. For example, in temperate growers to reduce 1989, several SC farms had to risks associated with PL stock reduce planned stocking availability. densities and/or not stock all their ponds due to an apparent INTRODUCTION seasonal shortage of quality PL (Rhodes et al., 1992). In recent years, farmed sh*rimp production in the The utilization of United States has increased greenhouse enclosed nursery substantially. In the 1993 raceways may be a viable season, the United States method of expanding the produced a record crop of stocking window while farm-raised shrimp, increasing the growing season approximately 2,500 metric in South Carolina. PL are tons, 25% more than the kept in nursery raceways until estimated 2,000 tons in 1992 they are transferred to (Rosenberry, 1993). South growout ponds. Advantages of 3 nursery raceways compared to operating risks (e.g. direct stocking of PL include equipment failures, etc.). better control of predators, more accurate production Research results on the projections, less feed waste effects of nursery raceway (feed is generally the largest systems are contradictory. operating cost of a shrimp Samocha and Lawrence (1992) farm's budget), and increased concluded that an intensive profitability (Samocha et al., nursery raceway system 1993A). In essence, a generally results in larger greenhouse enclosed nursery shrimp and thus, greater facility may provide the market price and higher following three advantages: revenue. In contrast, Juan et (1) The growout season may be al.(1988) concluded that extended, allowing for the direct stocking of growout production of larger shrimps ponds with PL and producing or possibly two crops per one crop per year in southern year. (2) Proper stocking of Texas is more profitable than juveniles following a nursery using intensive raceway phase should increase survival systems and producing two rates and improve consistency crops per year. The in estimating pond biomass extrapolation of results to during the growout phase. South Carolina is questionable This can result in improved given that Texas producers pond and feed management. (3) generally have a longer The nursery could allow growout season. Consequently, producers more flexibility in given the advantages and stocking schedules by taking disadvantages of greenhouse delivery of PL earlier in the nursery systems, the objective year (e.g. March and/or April) of this research is to compare and "stockpiling" the PL in the financial viability of a their nursery facility. growout shrimp farm with and without a nursery system in Yet, there are potential South Carolina. di-sadvantages of implementing this type of intensive nursery METHODS AND DATA system. Before water temperatures reach 20*C to Growout Operation 25'C, sea water temperature must be increased by some Facility design and means in the nursery system equipment, production for operation. An-intensive assumptions and major greenhouse system is also more financial assumptions for the expensive to'build than growout operation are regular outdoor nursery ponds discussed thoroughly in and a greater level of worker Sureshwaran et al. (1994). A skill is needed to maintain brief review is provided and operate the system. In below. addition, high stocking densities in raceways can The facility consists of increase the probability of 24 ponds [See Figure 1 in massive mortalities due to Sureshwaran et al.(1994)], 4 each of -1 hectare in size, individuals, restaurant constructed on a 31 hectare distributors, and wholesalers. farm that is leased near a Prices for the base scenarios saltwater source. Specific are similar to those that pathogen free (SPF) P. prevailed in South Carolina vannamei are used in this during 1993 for the estimated study (Wyban et al., 1992, harvest weights. Post- 1993). It has been found that harvesting losses were set at use of SPF P. vannamei has 2% of total harvest. increased survival rates, feed ef*ficiency, production and Nursery System profitability for the shrimp industry (Carpenter and Brock, Facility Design And Equipment 1992, Jaenike et al., 1992). The plan and operation of The length of the growout the nursery system discussed cycle is 5.0 months. in Samocha and Lawrence(1992) Aggregate survival is assumed provide the basis for the as 7501. The risks associated present design. In general, with growing shrimp include the hypothetical nursery nutritional and environmental system consists of 4 concrete factors, such as poor quality raceway structures each 10 feed, poor water quality, feet wide X 108 feet long in pollution, and low dissolved size, constructed on land that, oxygen. The risks of growing is available as part of the shrimp are not examined in growout operation (Figures 1 this study. In addition, the and 2). A 2-foot walkway study does not account for separates each raceway. natural disasters such as Raceways are built to drought, hurricanes, etc. alleviate complications of drainage at harvest. The A feed conversion rate of forms are fabricated from 2..O:l is used. The harvest fiber mesh concrete. Each weight is estimated using a raceway has a center partition density dependent growth model and a water depth of 4 feet. (Sureshwaran et al., 1994). A The bottom slope is 0.5 before-tax discount rate of percent with a 5-foot deep 15*1 and a planning horizon of sump at one end. The sump 10 years is assumed. Initial aids in the removal of waste investment starts in year 0, from the raceways. A 58 feet first year output is 50% of wide X 144 feet high gutter maximum capacity, second year connected greenhouse is output is 75-'. of maximum constructed to.enclose capacity and third year raceways. overall production is at 1000-. of capacity. An average water exchange rate of 30'-. per day is It is assumed that all employed with a maximum of 50% shrimp are produced for normal per day. To pump the water market sales, i.e., no live into raceways, 4 pumps with shrimp sales. These shrimp flow ratings of 240 gallons are sold head-on (whole) to per minute and 5 horsepower 5 (hp) motors are used. The capital, i.e., no loans. The pumps allow for oxygen annual financial projections injection, water circulation, for this facility are and filtration. One sand generated using a spreadsheet filter per raceway is template prepared by Applied required. Each will be Analysis, Inc. (AAI), (Leung equipped with top mounted and Rowland, 1989). A multi-port valves and will modified internal rate of have the capacity of about 20 return (MIRR) formula was MI/h for each raceway. The added to the AAI original sand filter is responsible for template. MIRR is defined as filtering incoming sea water the interest rate applied to as well as the raceway water. negative project balances that It is assumed that three phase equates the final project electrical wiring is used for balance to zero. When pumps. The multi-port valve compared to the internal rate directs water from pump to of return (IRR), MIRR is a sand filter then back to the better measure of raceway or to the sump for profitability because the MIRR drainage. An oxygen injection assumes that net cash flows system is used for aeration from all investment projects when needed. The system are reinvested at the cost of includes a liquid oxygen capital while the IRR assumes storage tank, pressure that cash flows are reinvested regulator, distribution system at the project's own IRR pipes and valves, oxygen (Brigham and Gapenski, 1990). filters, oxygen flow meters, and oxygen diffusers. Production Assumptions Equipment required for the nursery system are: (1) a Raceways will be stocked hauling trailer for at 12,500 PL /M2 in early transporting juveniles to March. All PL are stocked in growout ponds'; (2) 20 one day and harvested three automatic feeders; (3) weeks later. The PL in the harvesting equipment; (4) nursery raceway system are alarm system, and (5) an assumed to have a survival Artemia hatching system. it rate of 80'1 and a feed is assumed that all personnel conversion rate of 2.0:1. The from the grow-out operation feeding rates for dry feed are employed for nursery vary from 10'i in the first needs. Equipment required for week, 12.5% in the second week the nursery system already and 15% in the.third week. The available in the grow-out farm PL are fed dry feed from are: (1) office trailer; (2) stocking according to trucks; and (3) harvest and consumption, and feed particle lab equipment. The straight- size is adjusted according to line depreciation method is animal size. Artemia nauplii used for the growout and and frozen adult Artemia are nursery facility. It is also offered as a supplement to dry assumed that this hypothetical feeds. facility is not funded by debt Shrimp reared from PL density of 80 PL/mI, the that are transferred from the nursery system supplies nursery system intp growout 20'1 of the farm's ponds are assumed to have a stocking requirements, higher survival rate of 75% nursery survival is 800-. during the growout phase and' and growout survival rate reach a larger harvest size of of shrimp from nursery is 20g, when compared with direct 75*1, harvest price of stocking. The nursery system shrimp from nursery is will supply about 20% of the $5.10/kg for 20g shrimp, farm's stocking requirements, growth, survival and and the remaining 80'1 is harvest price of direct direct stocked. stocked.PL are the same as scenario SlA. Major Financial And Operating Assumptions Scenario S2A: Growout Only - Same as SlA except The major financial and harvest price decreased operating assumptions for the to $4.70/kg. nursery system are the following: (1) price of PL Scenario S2B: Growout including transportation is with Nursery - Same as $10.00 per 1,000; and (2) the SlB except harvest price cost of Artemia, including the of directly stocked PL is hatchery system, is $2,200 for $4.70/kg and $4.90/kg for a 3-week period. other shrimp from nursery. financial assumptions are similar to the growout farm: Scenario 'S3B: Growout (1) a before-tax discount rate with Nursery - Same as set at 15%; (2) planning SlB except survival rate horizon is 10 years; and (3) during the nursery phase all values are measured in is decreased to 65-0.. 1994 dollars. Scenario S4B: Growout Alternative Scenarios with Nursery - Same as SlB except survival The following six rate during the nursery scenarios are developed to phase is increased to compare the effects of 850-o. alternative survival rates and ex-pond prices: Scenarios SlA and SiB are "base case" scenarios for Scenario SlA: Growout growout without and with a Only - Stocking density nursery system. of 80 PL /M2 , direct stocking growout survival RESULTS rate of 70*-., harvest price of $4.95/kg for 17g A base case scenario for shrimp. the P. vannamei growout operation only (Scenario S1A) Scenario S1B: Growout serves as a reference po 'int with Nursery - Stocking for evaluating the impacts of 7 alternat ive scenarios. The ten-year (before Scenario SlB is the base case income taxes) internal rate of for a farm with a greenhouse return (IRR) and net present enclosed nursery system. The value (NPV) were projected. scenarios with the growout The ten-year IRR is 21.50-. operation only (S2A) and the (Table 2), which is greater combined growout and nursery than the discount rate of 15%. operation (S2B) evaluate the NPV in ten years is $259,000. impacts of decreases in ex- The modified internal rate of pond prices. Scenarios S3B return (MIRR) in ten years is and S4B consider a 100-o projected to be 17.9-. (Table decrease and increase, 2). respectively, in the nursery survival rates. The estimated additional investment in facilities and The projected initial equipment necessary to investment in facilities and construct a greenhouse equipment is approximately enclosed nursery system on an $998,000 for the 24-ha P. existing shrimp growout vannamei growout shrimp farm facility is about $103,000 without a nursery system (Table 3). The total (Table 1). Equipment estimated initial investment comprises about 49% of this in facilities and equipment to cost. Land clearing and construct a growout shrimp construction costs account for farm with a greenhouse approximately 480-.. The enclosed nursery system is operating cost in year 1 is about $1.1 million. The $0.38 million. Therefore, the operating cost in year 1 is growout shrimp farm without a $0.39 million. Therefore, the nu'rsery system requires a growout shrimp farm with a total initial investment of nursery system requires a $1.38 million before any total initial investment of revenue from sales is nearly $1.5 million before any received. revenue from sales is received. A simple, pro forma annual income statement for A simple, pro forma operating years three through annual income statement for ten was generated for the P. operating years three through vannamei growout shrimp farm ten was generated for this without'a nursery system shrimp farm with a nursery (Table 2). Projected annual system (Table 4). Projected sales are about $1.11 million annual sales are $1.18 million at full capacity, and total at full capacity, and total cash operating cost is $0.77 cash operating cost is $0.78 million. Feed and PL million. Again, feed and PL accounted for the largest accounted for the largest percentage of operating cost, percentage of operating costs, 33% and 25%, respectively 33-.' and 2601, respectively. (Table 2). Energy accounts for 10% of the operating cost. 8 Table 1. Summary o-f facility and equipment costs for a hypothetical 24-ha (water area) Penaeus vannamei shrimp farm without a nursery system in South Carolina, 1994. Item Cost Percent' Useful years DEVELOPMENT COST Project Report $10,000 20 Project Manager 20,000 Subtotal $30,000 3.006 LAND CLEARING AND FACILITIES2 Land Clearing, 31ha $85,250 20 Pond Construction 180,000 10 Seawater Pumps, 3 26,955 10 Electrical System 20,016 10 Discharge and Intake System 96,000 10 Buildings 54,000 20 Survey, Permits & Design 15,000. 47.896 10 Subtotal $477,221 EQUIPMENT Harvest Equipment $15,000 10 Feed Storage Bins 36,000 10 Paddlewheels 240,000 5 Trucks/tractors 62,500 20 Feeding System 40,500 5 Power Equipment 11,000 10 Pumps 82,800 5 Other 15,000 Subtotal $490,300 .49.2-06 TOTAL COSTS $997,521 100.001 FTotal Cost Per Water Area: $41,563/ha 'Percent of total cost. 2Jt is assumed that the land would be leased. 9 Table 2. Projected annual income statement for operating years three through ten and discounted cash flow analysis for a hypothetical 24-ha Penaeus vannamei shrimp farm without a nursery system in South Carolina. Item Value or Cost Percent' (in thousands) Projected Annual Sales $ 1,108 (223,910 kilograms at $4.95/kg) Projected Annual Ex1penses Pos-tlarvae $192 250-. Feed 252 33 Energy 80 10 Land lease 60 8 Labor 59 8 Salaried Personnel 83 11 Contingency 8 1 Other 33 4 TOTAL OPERATING COST: $767 10001 Operating Cost Per Kg: $3.43/kg Projected Depreciation: $129 Total Operating Costs with Depreciation: $897 Projected Net Income Before Taxes: $211 Net Cash Flow (Sales Minus Total Operating Cost) _L:L4 1 Net Annual Cash Flow Per Kg: $1.52/kg- DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS: 10 years Net Present Value (dollars 0001s) at 15%: $2S9 Internal Rate of Return: 21.53-0o Modified Internal Rate of Return: 17.8606 'Percent of total cost. 10 Table 3. Summary of additional facility and equipment costs for a greenhouse enclosed nursery system on a hypothetical Penaeus vannamei 24-ha shrimp farm in South Carolina, 1994. Item Cost Percent' Useful years FACILITIES Greenhouse $41,352 10 Raceway Construction 28,000 is Pumping 8,300 10 Other 4,916 80.3-0. Subtotal $82,569 EQUIPMENT Liners $6,848 10 Feeders, 20 2,000 5 Sand Filters, 4 1,600 10 Transfer Trailer 2,500 10 Pumps 4,140 10 Other Equipment & Materials 3,140 10 Subtotal 20,228 19.7@; [email protected] COSTS: $102,796 100.01 'Percentage of total operating cost. Energy accounted for 10'i of the debatable if much of the farm's operating cost. Total annual staff time is used in the off cash outflow is $0.780 million; season for repair and the average operating cost is maintenance tasks related to $3.33/kg (Table 4). The the growout operation. weighted, average selling price is $4.99/kgl. In the base scenario, growout survival was The projected ten-year MIRR hypothetically projected to be is 18. 9*1 (Table 4) which is 75-. for ponds stocked with greater than the before-tax nursery juveniles as compared discount rate of 15%. The to 70@; for direct stocked projected NPV in ten years is ponds. In addition, the $384,000. The IRR in ten years projected growout harvest size is projected to be 23.7'-.. Thus, of nursery shrimp was 20g the inclusion of a greenhouse compared to 17g for directly enclosed nursery system might stocked PL. These projected modestly' increase the increases in harvest size and profitability of a 24-ha shrimp survival rate of the nursery farm in South Carolina. shrimp from the growout ponds resulted in an overall increase The profitability of the in projected harvest biomass systems was compared under and in total annual revenues alternative scenarios (Table 5). (sales). Potential management As expected, when price advantages (e.g. improved feed decreases, the profitability of management) associated with shrimp farming decreases. As in stocking of juveniles were not Scenario S3B, a decrease in the addressed in this study. nursery survival rate to 6501 w i 1 1 reduce o v e r a 1 1 Expected production profitability below that of the benefits need to be considered non-nursery base scenario, SlA. relative to additional Scenario S4B shows that an operating risks associated w 'ith increase in the nursery survival nursery systems. For example, rate2 substantially increases transferring commercial the overall profitability. quantities of juvenile shrimp from raceway tanks to outdoor DISCUSSION earthen ponds during warm weather may cause significant Relative to the investment mortality. There are also in - a growout facility, the significant mortality risks inclusion of a greenhouse associated with the operation enclosed nursery system required of an intensive nursery system. a marginal increase in the None of these Tisks were initial investment in equipment analyzed in this study. and facilities. There were also some increases in PL and energy Economies of scale were cost components of operating not considered, therefore the expenses. Labor costs were not results of this study may be increased in this analysis more beneficial to large scale because it was assumed that the producers than small producers same staff would operate both (e.g. less than 10-ha farms). the raceways and the growout In addition, expanding the operation. This assumption is 12 Table 4. Projected annual income statement for operating years -three through ten and discounted cash flow analysis for a hypothetical 24-ha Penaeus vannamei shrimp farm with a greenhouse enclosed nursery system in South Carolina. Item Value or Cost Percent' (in thousands) Projected Annual Sales 177,000 kilograms at $4.9S/kg $876 59,000 kilograms at $5.10/kg 301 Total Sales $1,177 Prolected Annual Exioenses Post larvae $202 2601 Feed 254 33 Energy 80 10 Land lease 60 8 Labor 59 8 Salaried Personnel 83 11 Contingency 8 1 Other 33 4 TOTAL OPERATING COST: $780 10001. 110perating Cost per Kg.: $3.33/kg. Projected Depreciation: $139 Total Operating Costs with Depreciation: $919 Projected Net Income before Taxes: $258 Net Cash Flow: $397 (Sales Minus Total Operating Cost): IFNet-Znual Cash Flow per Kg.: $1.68/kg. DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS: 10 years Net Present value (dollars 000's) at 15'1: $384 Internal Rate of Return: 23.650-. Modified Internal Rate of Return: 18.900-. Percentage of total operating cost. 13 Tal5le 5. Discounted cash flow analysis for the alternative scenarios for a hypothetical Penaeus vannamei shrimp farm with and without a nursery system in South Carolina. Scenarios NPV IRR (0-.) MIRR Scenario SlA $259,000* 21.53* 17.86* Scenario SlB $384,000* 23.65* 18.90* Scenario S2A $ 45,000 16.19 15.39 Scenario S2B $170,000 18.96 16.75 Scenario S3B $258,000 20.91 17.6S Scenario S4B $511,000 26.30 20.03 Base scenarios. Scenario SlA: Growout Only Stocking density of 80 PL M2, direct stocking growout survival rate of 70%, harvest price of $4.95/kg for 17g shrimp. Scenario SlB: Growout with Nursery - Stocking density of 80 PL/M2, the nursery system supplies 20-06 of the farm's stocking requirements, nursery survival is 80% and growout survival rate of shrimp from nursery is 75-., harvest price of shrimp from nursery is $5.10/kg for 20g shrimp, growth, survival and harvest price of direct stocked PL are the same as scenario SIA. Scenario S2A: Growout Only - Same as SIA except harvest price decreased to $4.70/kg. Scenario S2B: Grow6ut with Nursery - Same as SlB except harvest price of directly stocked PL is $4.70/kg and $4.90/kg. for shrimp from nursery. Scenario S3B: Growout with Nursery - Same as S1B except survival rate during the nursery phase is decreased to 651. Scenario S4B: Growout with Nursery - Same as.SlB except survival rate during the nursery phase is increased to 85%. NPV = Net present value before taxes. IRR = Internal rate of return before taxes. MIRR = Modified internal rate of return before taxes. Before-tax discount rate is 15%. 14 scale of-the nurse.syst-em to growout shrimp farm without the supply.a major portion of nursery system. Given this juveniles.stocked in the small increase in profitability growout ponds was not examined. when partially stocking a Also, various opportunity costs growout facility with nursery were not evaluated (e.g. derived shrimp, it is marketable securities, etc.). questionable whether an enclosed greenhouse nursery As previously discussed, system is a viable financial one of the potential advantages alternative sclel based upon of a nursery system is allowing increasing aggregate yields and a producer to stockpile PL, harvest size. before they are needed for stocking growout ponds. Additional financial Moreover, if supplies of PL analysis on the costs and become tighter in the future benefits of shrimp nursery seasons and/or PL health and techniques for penaeid shrimp fitness are not assured, farms working in locations with nursery systems may become the a limited growing season is only practical way for SC needed. Future analyses should producers to reduce these PL focus on possible nursery supply risks. The financial operation risks, nursery/farm "trade-off" between reducing PL size considerations' and supply risks vs. operating nursery effects on coping with risks of stockpiling PL was not PL supply risks. examined in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS The long term viability of the South Carolina shrimp farming, among other factors, depends on the ability of its producers to incorporate new techniques, particularly those wit.h the potential to improve production during a limited growing season. Some believe that greenhouse enclosed nursery facilities may offer such an opportunity to the producers. Consequently, the comparative financial performance of a growout operation with a greenhouse enclosed nursery system was evaluated in this study. The projected, before taxes MIRR for a hypothetical P. vannamei growout shrimp farm with a greenhouse enclosed intensive nursery system was 18.9-i;, only slightly greater than the estimated 17.9-. MIRR for a Figure I Schematic Diagram of Raceway System Center partition Top View Manifold 10, 0 A AirlitL3 Air Diffusers SWnP Side View .. .. ....... 5 4 Airlifts 31611 Air Diffusers Z------- 81 1001 Figure 2 Schematic Diagram of Greenhouse Enclosure 10, 51 101 21 10, 41 10, 2' lot 51 F] E, 0 Li L- IT-0 0 1 D 0 D Ell. EI LjI L :17 108, 1r LI L 01 Ljj 2 0 0 u 2 -1 L I 10, 17 LITERATURE CITED Rhodes, R.J., K. McGovern- Hopkins, and C.L. Browdy. Brigham, E.F. and L.C. 1992. Preliminary Gapenski. 1990. Financial feasibility Intermediate financial analysis of an independent management. The Dryden marine shrimp hatchery Press, Orlando, FL., located in South Carolina. 923pp. South Carolina Marine Resources Center, Carpenter, N. and J.A. Brock. Technical Report Number 1992. Growth and survival 80. of virus infected SPF P. vannamei on a shrimp farm Rosenberry, B. 1993. (Editor) in Hawaii. Pages 285-294 World Shrimp Farming: In: W. Fulks and K.L. Main Special Report, Shrimp (Editors). Diseases of Farming in the United cultured penaeid shrimp in States. Aquaculture Asia and the United Digest, San Diego, CA, States. Oceanic Institute, USA. Honolulu, HI, USA. Samocha, T.M., and A.L. Jaenike, F., K. Gregg, and L. Lawerence. 1992. Shrimp Hamper. Shrimp production Nursery Systems and in Texas using specific Management. Pages 87-105, pathogen-free stocks. In: J. Wyban, (Editor). Pages 295-302 In: W. Fulks Proceedings of the Special and K.L. Main (Editors). Session on Shrimp Farming. Diseases of cultured World Aquaculture Society, penaeid shrimp in Asia and Baton Rouge, LA, USA. the United States. Oceanic Institute Samocha, T.M., A.L. Lawrence, Honolulu, HI, USA. and W.A. Bray. 1993A. Design and operation of an Juan, Y., W.L. Griffin, and intensive nursery for A.L. Lawrence. 1988. penaeid shrimp. Pages Production costs 173-210, In: J.P. McVey of juvenile penaeid shrimp and J.R. Moore, (Editors). in an intensive greenhouse CRC Handbook of raceway nursery system. Mariculture, Vol. I., Journal of the World Crustacean Aquaculture. Aquaculture Society, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 19:149-160. USA. Leung, P.S., and L.W. Rowland. Samocha, T.M., A.L. Lawrence, 1989. Financial analysis and J.M. Biedenbach. of shrimp production: An 1993B. The effect of electronic spreadsheet vertical netting and water model. Computers and circulation pattern on Electronics in Agriculture growth and survival of 3:287-304. Penaeus vannamei postlarvae in an intensive raceway system. Journal of Applied Aquaculture 2(l)-55-64. Sureshwaran, S., C. Greene, R.J. Rhodes, C.L. Browdy and A.D. Stokes. 1994. Financial viability of Penaeus setiferus versus Penaeus vannamei with continuous live harvesting and one final harvest strategies in South Carolina. SC Marine Resources Center, Technical Report Number 84. Wyban, James A., J.S. Swingle, J.N. Sweeney, and G.A.D. Pruder. 1993. Specific pathogen free Penaeus vannamei. Journal of the World Aquaculture Society, 24 (1) :39-45. Wyban, James A., J.S. Swingle, J.N. Sweeney, and G.D. Pruder. 1992. Development and commercial performance of high health shrimp using SPF broodstock Penaeus vannamei. Pages 254-260, In J. Wyban (Editor). Proceedings of the Special Session on Shrimp Farming. World Aquaculture Society, Baton Rouge, LA, USA. A total of 300 copies of this document was printed at a total cost of $276.82. The unit cost was $.992 per copy. 19 1. This is calculated by dividing projected total sales, $1,177,000, by total harvest, 236,000 kg. 2. Data from earlier experimental studies indicate that survival rates averaging up to 95-. are possible in the system (Samocha et al., 1993A). 3. For example, could a nursery system improve the comparative profitability and reduce businesses risks of a small marine shrimp farms (e.g. <12 ha) in South Carolina? mo z . . . . . . . . . . . RUM 14@ FLOW Wo oo@;z TZ 7''"Fiv VT f @t'. , - oor ri Tr I Ar jr, ool *0 41F "O@ .......... 3 66 8 00003 846