[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]





                    NOAA Coastal Ocean Program

      0
            FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contracts




                                         Volume 1

                             Nutrient-Enhanced Productivity
                               Estuarine Habitat Program
                             Toxic Chemical Contaminants
                                     Coastal Hazards



                                                         COASTAL ZONE
                                                     INFORNIATION CENTER
      LP




                 These plans represent agreements between the Assistant
                 Administrators and the Coastal Ocean Program Off ice concerning
                 the management and review processes, scientific and operational
                 procedure, products, and budget for implementing the NOAA
                 Coastal Ocean Program for FY 1991.



                 QH            U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
                 541.5   National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration I
                 C65                   Washington, D.C.
                 N63
                 V.1
                 1991








                                  TABLE OF CONTENTS






           Nutrient-Enhanced Productivity   ......................................         1

                 NECOP     ....................................................           3
                 ANICA    ....................................................          35


           Estuarine Habitat Program   .........................................        57

           Toxic Chemical Contaminants     ......................................       79


           Coastal Hazards  ................................................           115








               HM-U COz%07z%L OCE&H PROMFI%H




                       NUTRIENT ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY


            1. Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity - Mississippi/Atchafalaya
                Rivers (NECOP-MAR)

            2. Atmospheric Input to Coastal Areas (ANICA)

            3. Monitoring of Nutrient Overenrichment and Harmful Algal Blooms (MONOHAB)



                       FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contract


              This plan represents an agreement between the lead line office
              Assistant Administrator and the Coastal Ocean Program Off ice
              concerning the management and review processes, scientific and
              operational procedures, products, and budget for implementing
              this portion of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program in FY 1991.




               Ned A. Ostenso, Assistant Administrator              Date
               Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research




               D96ald Scavia, Director                              Date
               N150AA Coastal Ocean Program
                                      US Department of Commerce
                                 NOAA coastal services Center Library
                                       2234 South Hobson Avenue
                                       Charles rn, SC 29405-2413













                               NUTRIENT ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY


                                 FY 1991 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN



           This implementation plan covers three projects:

           I.    Nutrient      Enhanced    Coastal     Ocean     Productivity
                 Mississippi/Atchafalaya Rivers (NECOP-MAR)

           II.   Atmospheric Nutrient Input to Coastal Areas (ANICA)

           III.  Monitoring of Nutrient Overenrichment and Harmful Algal Blooms
                 (MONOHAB)

           Detai 1 s of the f i rst two projects are f ound i n the attached project
           implementation plans. The third project will operate at a planning
           level only in FY 1991.        A separate request to the NCOPO for
           Planning funds will be submitted later.

           The budget allocation for FY 1991 is:

           NECOP-MAR         $1,950,000
           ANICA                $50,000

           TOTAL             $2,000,000









                          "Mississippi-
                          Atchafalaya
                                   River
                                  (MAR)
                    I ple entation
  I                                 Plan


                                FY 1991
                      NECOP














                                                    Contract Version
                                                   February 15, 1991
                                       3

















                      NUTRIENT-ENHANCED COASTAL OCEAN PRODUCTIVITY


                         MISSISSIPPI-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUTFLOW


                                         FY1991
                                   IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
         PREFACE

             This     implementation     plan    is    for    one   project,      the
         Mississippi-Atchafalya Rivers (MAR) ouflow project, in the Nutrient
         Enhanced Coastal Productivity (NECOP) Program within the Coastal Ocean
         Program Nutrient Enhanced Productivitity (NEP) theme. The overall NEP
         theme strategy is@ described in a separate document titled "Nutrient
         Enhanced Productivity: Marine Fertilization and its Consequences. An
         Action Plan for the 90's".


         I. BACKGROUND

             The availability of light and the input of 'limiting' nutrients are
         the two primary factors which regulate the rate of production by plants
         in the earth's biosphere. in the coastal oceans the rate of organic
         matter production is primarily controlled by two factors. First, the
         input of the nutrient in greatest demand, i.e., the 'limiting'
         nutrient,    determines the rate and magnitude         of organic matter
         production by pelagic primary producers, the phytoplankton.              The
         majority of studies in marine coastal waters, that is seaward of
         riverine freshwater (salinities > 5 O/oo), have shown that nitrogen is
         usually the nutrient which limits the size (biomass) of phytoplankton
         populations (Ryther and Dunstan, 1971; D'Elia and Sanders, 1987).
         Second, the turbidity of the water column determines the depth
         interval, or the euphotic zone, through which the phytoplankton can fix
         inorganic carbon.     Since light extinction in coastal regions is
         proportional to the level of suspended matter, the particulate load
         places an upper limit, on primary production in estuaries, river
         plumes   and coastal regions (Cloern, 1988).          These factors also
         influence other marine populations in the coastal ocean, since the
         phytoplankton form the base of the complex food web, supporting higher
         marine organisms, including the commercially exploited finfish and
         shellfish resources of the U.S.

             Nutrients are supplied to the euphotic zone of the coastal oceans
         in various ways.     Nutrients are derived from the in situ decay of
         organic material produced in the euphotic zone, predominantly through
         the recycling of phytoplankton biomass by other organisms. Recycling
         occurs through such processes as grazing by zooplankton, excretion of
         dissolved matter, and by the death and decay of grazers and organisms
         of higher trophic levels.     Nutrient input to the coastal ocean also
         occurs by wind or current-driven upwelling, where nutrients regenerated
         in the deep ocean by remineralization of sinking organic matter at
         depth, are returned to the euphotic zone in coastal environments. A
         third mechanism of nutrient input, which is the concern of this
         program, is the nutrient supply to coastal environments from the











          continents. These inputs most commonly occur in river water, or as
          direct run-off from land. Nutrients supplied via these routes include
          those derived naturally from decaying terrestrial material, and those
          contributed from anthropogenic inputs, either as direct discharge or as
          runoff, including agricultural activities. The impact of nutrients from
          anthropogenic sources on the coastal oceans is the specific focus of
          this program.

              Evidence is mounting that anthropogenic inputs contribute large
          quantities    of limiting, nutrients to the coastal oceans.               The
          increased productivity can result in delete-rious effects on the quality
          of our coastal waters, particularly when phytoplankton production
          exceeds the capacity of higher trophic organims to assimilate the fixed
          organic carbon. A worldwide comparison of riverine nitrogen inputs
          from regions of high population density and development, versus areas
          of   low    population    density   and    development, has      shown that
          nitrate-nitrogen is generally 10 to 30-fold greater in rivers flowing
          through developed regions. Temporal increases also are evident as
          population increases and industrial development occurs. In the U.S.,
          the concentration of nitrate in the Mississippi River below New Orleans
          has increased from about 1 mg/l in the late 1950's to 2.2 mg/l in the
          early 1980's, or ca. 50 to > 150 ug at/1 (Fig. 1, from Turner et al.,
          1987).   within the upper Chesapeake Bay the average annual t6-tal
          nitrogen, phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations have doubled
          during the period 1965-1980 (Price et al., 1985). There is evidence
          that nutrient inputs to our coastal oceans are steadily increasing even
          in less-developed U.S. coastal regions. For example, the nitrate -
          nitrogen concentration within the Altamaha River, Georgia, has tripled
          from 10 to 30 ug-atT/1 since 1960 (Fig. 2, from Walsh et al.,
          1981).

              our understandimg of the effects of increasing nutrient input, and
          the consequent stimulation of primary biological productivity, is
          limited, and the full impact of enhanced production can not be
          predicted at present. In general, sufficient light and nutrients are
          present in the water column during the summer such that estuarine and
          coastal phytoplankton are able to fix large amounts of carbon; the
          majority is ingested by grazers. This particulate matter, mainly as
          fecal pellets, is oxidized by microbial organisms after it sinks into
          deeper waters. During these summer months the coastal waters are often
          stratified into a shallow, warm surface layer and cooler subsurface
          layer; the surface mixed layer can exceed the depth of the euphotic
          zone.   The density stratification limits the re-aeration of subsurface
          waters from the oxygen-sufficient surface layer,           where oxygen is
          introduced from the atmosphere and from phytoplankton photosynthesis.
          Oxygen concentrations in -the deeper waters subsequently decline to
          levels where aerobic respiration cannot be maintained, with decreases
          in commercially important resources (Price et al., 1985).

              while the sequence of events during episodes of hypoxia (low
          dissolved oxygen) and anoxia (no detectable dissolved oxygen) are
          fairly well documented in estuarine waters, as for the Chespeake Bay
          (see officer et al., 1984), our coastal waters also appear to be
          developing hypoxic areas. observation from the Louisiana continental































                                             SUMMER NITRATE
                                        Y=16424.B 16-73 0.004 X2


                               mg N2
                               N03




                                         1960    YEAR 1970      19BO





                 Figure 1.    April   July nitrate concentrations (mg/1 N03-N) in
                              the Mississippi River at St. Francisville, Louisiana
                              from 1955 to 1984. From Turner et al. (1987).






                                                             TIME SERIES - NITRATE FLUX


                                                                  MISSISSIPPI RIVER


                                           120
                                                                                                                                           120


                                           60.
                                                                                                                                           60


                                           0                                                                                               0
                                            JA J 0 j A J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 .0. A J 0 j A J 0 j A J 0 J A 1 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 j
                                              1954     1955      it 56   1957     t19 58     1959      1960     1961   1 962      1963




                                           120                                                                                             120
                                           60'                                                          IL
                                                                                                          8                                60
                                           OL                                   01  -                                                      0
                                              A J'O  j A J 0 j  A j 0 j  A J 0 1     J 0 j   A J 0 J   A J 0 j A j 0 1 A J 0 j A J 0 1
                                              1964     1965     1966      1967      1968     1969      1970    1971      1972     1973


                                                                                                             150
                                           120@-
                                                                                                              90
                                           60
                                                                                                              30
                                           0
                                              L J 0 i  A .1 0 jA J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0     j A 1 0 J A    7 0 j  0
                                              1974      1975      1976    1977      197a     1979      1900





                                     A time series of            nitrate content (ug-at/1) at 450 km upstream of
                                     the mour-h cf the           Mississippi River draining "developed" areas.
                                     Fro,-,. Walsh et a!. (1981).





                                                     ALTAMAHA RIVER (GEORGIA)

                                       60                                                                                                  60

                                       30                                                                                                  30
                                         0 JA j 0  j A j ' @L@JA J 0 J A j 0 1 A 1      '44* LA*     A -J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0      A J 01    0
                                                                195?   1956       M9         its&      t%7                t*60    #971


                                       so                                                                                                  60

                                       30-                                                                                                 30
                                                             .:*        -.    *1L
                                                                                                                    tj - - - - - - -
                                                                                                                                           10
                                              J 0  J A J 0 J  A J 0 J A J 0 J A           A J 0 J A       0 J A J 0 J  A J  0 1
                                              1972    1973     1974      1975      1976      f977      1979    1979
                                      A time      series     of the      nitrate content (ug-at/1) at                     so     100 km
                                      upstream of -the mouth of the Altamaha River draining                                   undeveloped
                                      areas. From Walsh et al. (1981).



                                                                                 Fiaure 2.



                                                                          7










        shelf (Turner et al., 1987) and the New York Bight (Swanson and
        Sinderman, 1979TinUir-cate that the frequency of summer hypoxia events
        is increasing. The problem is not unique to North American coastal
        waters, for long-term observations in the Adriatic Sea (Justic 1987)
        and the outer waters of the Baltic (Andersson and Rydberg, 1986) show
        similar trends.     Hypoxia and anoxia can lead to the death of the
        benthic marine biota within the impacted area and the displacement of
        mobile, or migratory, species. Within Louisiana coastal waters several
        important components of the macrobenthot population, such as shrimp,
        crabs and demersal fish, are at very low densitites, or absent from
        hypoxic waters during the summer (Gaston-@-1985; Renaud, 1986).

            Aside from hypoxia/anoxia events, the stimulation of the biological
        primary production of our coastal oceans by anthropogenic nutrient
        inputs may well have other consequences that need to be determined.
        This enhancement of productivity may impact our coastal ecosystems by
        altering   phytoplankton    species    occurrence and     abundance. Such
           litative, as well as quantitative, changes in primary producers can
        ave serious impacts on the herbivorous species that form the base of
        our commercial fisheries. As an example, the success of commercially
        important larval fishes in the first feeding stage has been found to
        depend upon the existence of specific phytoplankton species that are
        readily ingested by larvae (Lasker and Sherman, 1981).

            Finally,   the input of significant        amounts of anthropogenic
        nutrients to the coastal regions has a potentially important role in
        climate and global change. At present large-scale global models cannot
        assess the degree to which the oceans remove anthropogenic C02 from the
        earth's atmosphere. In addition to the physical absorption of C02 from
        the atmosphere at high latitudes, oceani-c biota may play a role by
        photosynthetic fixation of C02 and subsequent%transport as organic
        carbon to deep ocean waters with an ultimate burial in sediments. The
        extent of-this 'biological pump-in oceanic waters must be quantified
        if reliable, predictive models-,of climate cha*ge are to be developed
        (Moore and Bolin, 1987). The role of oceanic biota in the sequestering
        of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere requires the utilization of new'
        nutrients, rather than those released by the decay and recycling of
        marine organic material in situ. Otherwise, the rate at which carbon
        is fixed is limited by the rate at which-organic carbon and nitrogen is
        recycled from that previously fixed by photosynthesis. In summary, a
        source of 'new' nitrogenous nutrients must be introduced into the
        oceanic surface waters if carbon dioxide is to be fixed in excess of
        that already present in the oceans. Man's input of large quantities of
        nutrients into the coastal oceans may be a major source of the required
        'new' nutrients on a global basis. Present estimates of the-impact of
        such nutrient sources are widely disputed (cf. Walsh et al., 1981; Rowe
        et al., 1986). Research is necessary to clarify the r6lfe of coastal
        oceans in the long-term 'burial' of anthropogenic C02 in ocean margins,
        and its subsequent burial in deep water following transport offshore by
        storms or mass wasting of shelf and slope sediments.















           11 OBJECTIVES.

               The goals of NOAA's environmental quality coastal program are 1.)
           to better understand the influences of natural and anthropogenic
           activities on the quality of the coastal environment and its resources,
           such that, 2.) a better predictive capability is achieved in order to
           assess the results of society's !activities within the context of
           natural variation. The key objectives- of the research program on
           nutrient-enhanced      coastal      ocean     productivity     are       to:

            * Determine quantitatively the-degree        to which coastal primary
            productivity has been enhanced in areas       receiving high terrestrial
            nutrient inputs.

            * Determine the impact on water quality (especially dissolved oxygen
            demand) of this enhanced productivity.

            * Determine the fate of the carbon fixed in coastal areas of enhanced
            productivity and its impact on living resources within the coastal
            ocean and upon the global marine carbon cycle.

           III. APPROACH.


               The central hypothesis of this research program is: TERRESTRIAL
           NUTRIENT INPUTS HAVE ENHANCED COASTAL OCEAN PRODUCTIVITY WITH
           SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON COASTAL OCEAN WATER QUALITY, LIVING RESOURCE
           YIELDS, AND THE GLOBAL MARINE CARBON CYCLE. Over the long term the
           intent of this program is to conduct research subprograms in areas
           receiving differing leveis of terrestrial nutrient inputs (including
           anthropogenic inputs) and under various physi-cal--regimes.

               The coastal ocean productivity research program will contain the
           following major technical components:

            1) A physical oceanographic program to determine the coastal ocean
           circulation and buoyancy flux. The objective is to observe the the
           physical forcings which control nutrient distributions and primary
           production. Time scales that must be considered include storm event,
           tidal, diurnal, seasonal and interannual. The horizontal circulation
           and mixing will be quantified as necessary for understanding processes
           such as transport and dispersion of nutrients and the various plankton
           communities. The vertical structure determines the stability of the
           water column and consequent biological productivity, particle
           transport, and controls hypoxia/anoxia events. Interannual variability
           will be reconstructed from historical environmental data records and
           sediment cores. An understanding of this interannual variability is
           important to determine the extent to which anthropogenic impacts have
           affected coastal systems, and whether changes due to these impacts can
           be documented. At present the historical record is primarily based
           upon sporadic observations of biota, chemical distributions and hypoxia
           within the past few decades, with the earliest records from 1935
           (Richards, 1957). A more complete sequence of past events may be
           constructed from available cores (approx. 70 AOML piston, box and











        gravity cores, and 36 LUMCON box cores from the Delta area) and perhaps
        remote SST imagery for the past two decades.

        2) A chemical/biological program to measure the distribution of
        nutrients and organic carbon distributions in the coastal ocean areas
        as well as the primary and secondary productivity of the study area as
        a function of space and time. Research will be conducted on the
        processes which link anthropogenic nutrient fluxes to primary
        productivity, and on trophic structure within food webs as it is
        altered in response to increased productivity. Additional studies will
        relate enhanced productivity to parti'cle--transport and export, and the
        occurrence of subsequent hypoxic events.

         3) A remote sensing program utilizing satellite infrared (SST) and
        ocean color (CAMS)'measurements to provide synoptic coverage of coastal
        ocean productivity over extended space and time periods. Remote sensing
        is a cost-effective method to provide synoptic estimates of surface
        temperature and ocean color in oceanic areas. Additional remote sensing
        capabilities utilizing optical, and acoustic systems will be deployed
        from ships and drifters to complement--the observations from satellite
        systems and provide reliable ground truth comparisons.

         4) A modeling program. Models will be developed, or adapted, with an
        objective of guiding the research effort and providing predictive
        capabilities for management. Models are extremely useful to researchers
        in formulating hypotheses which can be examined or tested in the field
        during process-oriented studies. Mixed layer and circulation models are
        required as a basis for understanding and constraining the primary
        production and food web models. The models should be utilized in order
        to achieve a predictive capability for assessing the fmpact of nutrient
        variability on organic matter production and consilmptrbn and, finally,
        upon particle transport and oxygen demand.

        IV. INITIAL STUDY AREA - THE MISSISSIPPI/ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUTFLOW AND
            ADJACENT LOUISIANA SHELF REGION

            Given the objectives and central hypothesis of the Nutrient
        Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity component of the NOAA Coastal Ocean
        program, the initial study area should satisfy the following criteria:

        Criterion #1 - A clear terrestrial nutrient signal.

        Criterion #2 - Resultant nut *rient-enhanced productivity of significant
                       magnitude. '

        Criterion #3 - A demonstrable impact of enhanced production on coastal
                       environmental quality.

        Criterion #4 - Renewable resources of significant value.

        On this basis we have-chosen the initial area of study as the Louisiana
        Shelf which receives outflow from the Mississippi River Delta and
        Atchafalaya River (which carries 30% of the total volume of the
        Mississippi) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The impact of this



                                          / 10










          discharge occurs in the adjacent shelf waters. Each of the above
          criteria is discussed separately in terms of the designated study area.

              The Mississippi is the sixth largest river system in the world in
          terms of water discharge, and the largest in the U.S. It and its
          tributaries drain more than 40% of the continental U.S. and contribute
          65% of the average annual runoff into the Gulf of Mexico (Moody, 1967).
          The volume of suspended sediment discharge has been estimated to have
          an annually range of 344 to 544 mill-ion tons, in addition to an
          estimated annual bedload discharge of 136 million tons (Holeman, 1968).
          These volumes make the Mississippi th*e seventh largest river in the
          world in terms of sediment discharge. most of this water and sediment
          is discharged through three major passes of the Mississippi Delta
          (Figure 3), i.e., Southwest Pass, South Pass and Pass a Loutre (Holle,
          1967). Much ofithe'river sediment load is deposited in shallow areas
          around the Delta, contributing to very high sedimentation rates (up to
          several cms per year). This rapid sedimentation results in rapid burial
          which has preserved the geologic and geochemical history of the last
          several centuries. This history can be readily examined in cores, as
          evident in the study of annual lead deposition within sediments from
          the Delta (Trefry et al., 1985).

          Criterion #1 - A clear terrestrial nutrient signal: There is ample
          evidence that the outflow of the Mississippi River is enhancing the
          input of nutrients to the adjacent Louisiana shelf. The nutrient
          loading in the Mississippi river, especially in terms of nitrate, has
          increased markedly since the mid 1950's (Turner et al., 1987; Walsh,
          1981; Kempe, 1988). As stated above, and illustFa-ti-d in Figure 1,
          during the period from 1955 to 1984 the nitrate concentration of river
          waters at St. Francisville, LA has more than doubled, increasing from
          about 50 to > 150 ug at/l. It is reasonable to as.@ume that this
          increased nitrate-N has an anthropogenic source, given its timing and
          the extensive agricultural and industrial development that has occured
          within the Mississippi drainage basin. As early as 1971, Everett (1971)
          reported that in the 241 km upstream of New Orleans, more than 18
          million kilograms of dissolved solids were added to the river daily
          from industrial discharges. This amounted to 7% (at average high flow)
          to 20% (at average low flow) of the total dissolved river load.

          Criterion 2 - Resultant nutrient-enhanced productivity of significant
          magnitude: Primary production within the Mississippi Outflow plume has
          been found to range from 1 to 5 9C/m2/day (Carder et al., 1989). This
          is a significant level of productivity, as is evident by a comparison
          with the highly-productive Peru coastal upwelling system. In that
          ecosybtem rates of 1 gC/m2/day are found near shore, where upwelled
          nitrate first reaches the surface, with rates of 9 to 10 gC/m2/day
          observed offshore, following sufficient time for the primary producers
          to attain maximum rates (Walsh, 1983).

          Criterion #3 - A demonstrable impact of enhanced production on coastal
          environmental quality: Possibly the most significant impact of
          nutrient-enhanced productivity in the Mississippi Outflow/Louisiana
          Shelf region is bottom water hypoxia during the summer. In the winter
          the shelf waters are stirred and mixed by wind events on time scales of










                       290
                       30


                                                                                              AO
                                                                                                60



                                         Barolorlo Boy
                                                                                    pas a Lou"



                       290                                   Southwest Sout,
                                                                Pass    pass
                       00














                       280
                       30


                                                           1000                         Dtplh contours In rn

                                    90000                   890304                69000
                                             to
                                         Bdr4OO\rO e







                               Figure 3. The three major passes in the Mississippi Delta whic
                                           account for most of the water and sediment discharqe











          3 to 8 days (Dagg, 1988). Hence bottom hypoxic.regions are typically
          observed only between April through October. Regions of low dissolved
          oxygen concentrations begin to develop along the Louisiana Shelf west
          of the outflow plume in the spring, when the coastal waters begin to
          stratify, and thereby limit the re-aeration of bottom waters. Hypoxic
          water masses (oxygen concentrations <2.0 mg/1) form during the summer
          as stratification intensifie-s. As oxygen concentrations decrease, the
          aereal extent of the hypoxic regions expands, finally dissipating in
          the fall as density stratification weakens in response to increased
          turbulence. Necessary conditions forthe development of bottom hypoxia
          on the shelf are postulated as: high.rates--of 'river discharge
          trasnporting nutrients to the shelf,--phytoplankton blooms (providing
          oxidizable organic matter to the bottom waters), and water column
          stratification. The argument for this is developed as follows:

          - The Mississippi River is the major source of 'new' nutrients to the
          shelf waters during the spring and summer. During the winter wind
          events, which provide energy for reaeration, also result in nearshore
          upwelling (Dagg, 1988).

          - The high levels of primary production in Mississippi plume waters
           (>300 gC/m2/yr) is supported by the enhanced nutrient input.

          - The existence of high levels of phytoplankton degradation products
          (phaeopigments) in hypoxic regions suggest that hypoxia results from
          high rates of microbial community respirition (Turner and Allen,
          1982), which is supported by the recycling of phytoplankton biomass.

              Rabalais (1987; and in press) indicates that the relationship
          between surface chlorophyll levels and bottom hypoxia is not
          straightforward, despite initial attempts to corr6-late the two by
          remote imagery (Leming and Stuntz, 1984). In fact, in 1985 and 1986
          there was no obvious correlation between surface chlorophyll levels and
          bottom oxygen conditions. Under conditions of severe hypoxia pigment
          concentrations in bottom waters were generally higher than in overlying
          surface waters. This suggests that consumption of oxygen in bottom
          waters by the microbial community respiration was supported by primary
          production in the Shelf surface waters; however, the source of organic
          matter may-have been the nearshore waters, or the Mississippi plume to
          the east.

             Although it is now clear that the Louisiana shelf ecosystem is
          adversely affected by development of hypoxic conditions, the situation
          may intensify. Turner et al. (1987) note that phytoplankton production
          beyond the light-limiteK, _15u_rbid river plume is primarily nitrogen-
          limited. They therefore hypothesize that a continued increase in
          nutrient inputs from the Mississippi (Figures 1 and 2). and
          consequently any future increase in 'new, productivity on the shelf,
          will result in higher inputs of phytoplankton carbon to shelf bottom
          waters, with a potential expansion of hypoxic regions.

          Criterion #4 - Renewable resources of significant value: In addition to
          the extensive, non-renewable mineral resources (e.g., petroleum and
          sulfur) which must be exploited, the U.S. Gulf Coast has extensive





















                             LOUISIANA


                                                                lop,












                                     7,j





                                                        it
                                                        11ei
                                                                   %






                                      19 8 5                 1986



             Figure 4.   A-reas of the Louisiana shelf where hypoxic bottom waters
                         werefound in 1985 and 1986. Station locations indicated
                         by closed circles for 1986 stations only- From Rabalais
                         (1967)











         renewable resources and environments which have a significant
         commercial value. Approximately 30% of the U.S. fisheries catch (in
         both landing tonnage and dollar value) comes from the Gulf of Mexico.
         The highest dollar value fishery (shrimp) and the highest tonnage
         fishery (Gulf menhaden) in the U.S. exists in the Gulf. In 1977 there
         were approximately 30,000 full and part-time commercial fishermen in
         the U.S. Gulf States, with nearly 5,000 fishing vessels exceeding 5 net
         tons displacement (French, 1981). Altliough.harder to quantify, the
         recreational fishery has a similar value.. The coastline and coastal
         waters of the Gulf serve as an important recreational area for a
         significant portion of the U.S. popula@iofi-,,--population growth in the
         five U.S. Gulf Coast states has exceeded all projections and is
         expected to continue through at least the year 2,000. Much of the
         lucrative recreational fishery is located within the shelf areas
         influenced by the Aississippi/Atchafalaya outflow. This region will be
         directly influenced by any future impact of nutrient-enhanced
         productivity, whether desirable or not. While hypoxia has a clearly
         adverse impact on fisheries, enhanced productivity per se could have
         potentially beneficial effects. our current understanding of the
         linkage among the physical regime, productivity and ecosystem response
         is presently too incomplete to realistically predict these impacts.

         V. Key Research Questions.

         The following series of questions delineate key research areas to, be
         addressed as research activities under the Nutrient Enhanced Coastal
         ocean Productivity program. The questions represent the consensus of
         approximately thirty NOAA and academic scientists.

         .Key Question #1: Does a historical record exist within sediments which
         indicates that the productivity of Shelf waters has increased on time
         scales commensurtae with the historical record of anthrpogenic nutrient
         loading?

         Key Question #2: What is the temporal and spatial scale of physical
         and biological variability in riverine outflow regions of the northern
         Gulf of Mexico?

         Key Question #3: What is the production rate, distribution and fate of
         biogenic carbon in riverine plumes and the shelf on seasonal-to-annual
         time scales in the northern Gulf of Mexico?

         Key Question #4: What physical and biological processes regulate the
         flux and chemical composition of carbon, and concentrations of
         nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon, as well as suspended particulate
         matter, from the riverine outflow in the northern Gulf of Mexico?

         Key Question #5: Has increased nutrient loading in the Mississippi
         Atchafalaya outflow contributed to the occurrence of hypoxic conditions
         on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf?

         VI. Program Plan:

         A. Retrospective Analysis












       1. Sedimentary Record.    An underlying hypothesis of the proposed
       program is that shelf productivity has been enhanced as a result of
       anthropogenic loading from riverine outflow. However,.no direct measure
       of productivity exists for northern Gulf shelf waters over the past few
       decades, although a large number of unpublished pigment measurements
       have been taken. Since shelf sediments are deposited at rates of 10 -
       20 cm y-l in the -region immediately izpacted by the Delta outflow, the
       temporal records of sedimentary biogeochemical parameters may provide
       the sole record of past productivity, or anoxic events, on spatial and
       temporal scales commensurate with the'nutrient records from the
       Mississippi River.

       Following an initial survey of core libraries, individual cores will be
       selected on the ba'sis of coherent geochronology (by Pb-210,
       Pu-239/Cs-137 dating) from various depositional sites on the
       shelf/slope for analysis of biogeochemical constituents. The
       geochronology will ensure that the selected cores contain a coherent
       annual record over the past few decades, as previously successfully
       demonstrated for lead (Trefry et al., 1985). Given that rapid sediment
       transfer off-shelf can occur by mi-ss wasting and slumping during high
       energy periods, such as storms, the dating is necessary to permit a
       temporal and spatial record of biogeochemical constituents to be
       compiled. The constituents examined would ideally serve as Ibiomarkers,
       of past events. The temporal and spatial records of these indices may
       potentially reveal the influence of anthropogenic nutrient loading over
       the shelf. An increase in productivity indices which parallel the
       documented increase in nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi
       River, for example, would imply a causal link between between the two
       parameters. In addition, plankton fossil records may reveal changes in
       community structure which could reflect alteration's in dissolved
       inorganic N:P:Si ratios as river outflow composition changed due to
       anthropogenic influences.

       B. Productivity of the Shelf/Plume System

       1. Process Studies. An understanding of the hierarchy of physical
       processes which control the distribution of nutrients, particulates,
       and optical properties in river plumes, shelf, slope and ultimately the
       open Gulf of Mexico, is a prerequisite in quantifying the influence of
       anthropogenic nutrient input on primary production. In broad terms the
       processes which must be examined are those which control 1) the
       dilution of the river plumes and mixing of plume and shelf waters, 2)
       regional variability in stratification, plume dimensions and shelf,
       slope waters, and 3) the advection and diffusion of oxygen and
       particulate materials from riverine through slope water regimes. These
       physical processes span a continuum of spatial and-temporal scales (see
       Figure 5), and must be quantified by a field program to observe the
       variability in physical parameters. The primary objective of these
       studies is to provide a description of the influence of physical
       processes on the fate of nutrients, oxygen, carbon and particulates
       within a fluid parcel a-s it progresses from a riverine source to the
       offshore waters of the open Gulf of Mexico. The field program
       incorporates shipboard drifting, and moored instrumentation.










         Observations of the seasonal variability in the density (temperature,
         salinity structure by CTD casts), optical (beam transmissometry,
         submarine light spectrum) and flow (u, v by acoustic doppler current
         profiler) patterns will be made during seasonal cruises. The first of
         these will occur in JUly-AUguSt 1990 and will involve three ships (NOAA
         Ship MALCOMB BALDRIGE, R/V GYRE from Texas A&M University, R/V PELICAN
         from the Louisiana Marine Sciences Consortium, LUMCON) and one
         aircraft (NASA Lear Jet). The second cruise will occur in winter-spring
         1991. During the winter-spring cruise in FY 91 emphasis will be placed
         on observing the impact of high volume discharge on the shelf.

         Synoptic measurements of chemical pa-rameters, dissolved oxygen,
         particulates and pigments will be conducted on all cruises to determine
         cause-effect relationships. Surface wind stress and solar irradiance
         will be recorded A sea, and throughout the year at shore facilities.
         The field program in FY 91 will consist of'a 'spring' cruise to measure
         physical and optical parameters on transects between 880 and 940 W from
         the nearshore to the slope regime. The transects will be oriented from
         plumes to offshore waters parallel to the main flow field, as well as
         perpendicular to the major axis of river plumes. It is proposed that
         the specific orientation of the transects for each cruise will rely, in
         part, on the most recent satellite imagery of the SST field. These
         transects will provide a more synoptic examination of the area than is
         possible with the drifting platforms, and provide physical and
         biological oceanographers with an opportunity to make synoptic
         observations on the sub-mesoscale. This is necessary to establish
         causal mechanisms between the physical environment and ecosystem
         responses.

             An important consideration is to quantify the extreme variability
         in the optical fields across the shelf. Since-proctuctivity within
         p-lumes is initially light-limited, due to the high SPM content, the
         spatial and temporal distribtuion of productivity and nutrient
         utilization is regulated in the near field by light availability. The
         measurements are planned as an integral part of the field observation
         program, by both shipboard and drifting platforms, with emphasis on the
         plume and shelf regimes. A series of Lagrangian drifters, capable of
         measuring submarine irradiance, temperature and pigment fluorescence
         profiles at predetermined time intervals will be launched during the
         cruise to supplement the shipboard observations.

             Prior studies have shown that the level of productivity in the
         nearshore plumes is proportional to algal biomass and light
         availability, (Lohrenz, et al., submitted). Further offshore the rate
         of nutrient supply controTs the level of production. A suite of
         observations by academic scientists has shown that over the course of
         the past few decades a decrease in turbidity (and dissolved silica) in
         the outflow areas, (attributed to reduced SPM loading of the
         Mississippi due to damming upriver) has resulted in an improvement in
         the light regime in nearshore waters. with the increase in light
         availability and concomitant production, the nutrient which 'limits,
         production has potentially shifted from nitrogen to silicon during some
         periods of the year, e.g. siliceous organisms such as diatoms become
         silica-limited at levels of 1 - 2 uM silica (Q. Dortch, pers. com.).




                                           /7





















                                        L (log km)                 Annual
                                                5                   Interannual
                                                                  'Variability r
                                                4     Plumes            \IJ    -
                                                    (Weather)                     Climatic
                                                3                ...... ..        Variability

                                                2



                                                                              Seasonal
                                                0                             Variability
                                              -2      Fronts, Halocline

                                                   -2 -1     0    1    2    3    4    5   6
                                                                  T (log day)


                            Figure 5.  A schematic flow diagram illustrating the temporal evolution
                                       of a near-surface fluid parcel and the associated horizontal
                                       spatial scales of various processes as it progresses from a
                                       riverine source to the 'open Gulf' (i.e., souce to fate).
                                       Advection is assumed at ca. 12 cm/s with dimensions in the
                                       near field corresponding to less than a 10:1 dilution and
                                       dimensions in the far field at greater than 10:1.






                                                   1012











           These conditions often occur during periods of high productivty. This
           shift in the nutrient species limiting primary production, and the
           relaxation of light stress, has important implications for the trophic
           structure of the shelf ecosystem, and ultimately the fate of biogenic
           carbon, as discussed in the section on Carbon Flux.

               The relationships between nutrien   'ts and productivity on the shelf
           will be addressed by determining how present levels of production are
           coupled to present rates of seasonal-to-interannual nutrient supply.
           This is accomplished by productivity and nutrient observations during
           the field program at different seasons (itages of river flow) to
           monitor the spatial patterns in primary production, (by 14C uptake),
           algal biomass and species composition. Routine sampling of nutrient
           concentrations (dissolved forms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon),
           are made on thb transects from 880 to 94 W. Since 'new' production in
           this area is supported by nutrients imported from riverine and runoff
           sources, as well as from deep water by upwelling, new, nitrogen
           includes not only nitrate (as in the open ocean) but also reduced forms
           of nitrogen. Thus it is necessary to monitor the utilization of
           several dissolved inorganic nitrogen species across the plume/shelf
           regime.

           2. Models. Two modeling efforts are included within NECOP, with
           initial box models relying on existing data of physical, optical, and
           chemical-biological parameters. The results of the first box models
           are employed to identify which parameters and regions in the shelf
           should be emphasized in the field program, and guide in the design of
           sampling protocol. The goal of the modeling effort examining physical
           processes and hypoxia is to identify the dominant space and time scales
           of variability for parameters  -_ which contribute to,- processes associated
           with the development of low oxygen waters. Suff'icient data exists from
           the LASER program to begin moffeling efforts examining the linkage
           between changes in the qualitative nutrient composition and the
           taxonomic composition of primary producers. A second generation
           product will be the generation of diagnostic models to be used by
           individual investigators for their particular research questions.
           Ultimately it should be possible to predict the dominant space/time
           scales for the various physical, chemical, and biological fields, as
           well as the dominant processes regulating the distribution and
           variability of these fields from simulation models in the latter phase
           of the program.

           C. Hypoxia Research & Modeling

           1. Time Series, Processes and Im2act Studies. The impact of extensive
                              R_                   __I@to Texas is one of the
           hypoxic areas on t e shelf from Mississippi
           potentially most important consequences of enhanced coastal
           productivity in the United States (Turner et al., 1988). The research
           on hypoxia is therefore intimately linked f-o B-oth the Productivity and
           Carbon Flux components. Hypoxia contributes to shrimp mortality, and
           occurs during the spawning season of shrimp. It may alter migration
           patterns, resulting in'a local concentration of commercially important
           fish populations in the nearshore waters, making them more accessible
           to fishermen (Ijubilees').' The NECOP program includes two components



                                             8











        involved with research on hypoxia; one for monitoing and the second
        addressing the relationship of hypoxia to biota. The time series field
        program will provide a more refined view of hypoxia development than
        has been possible in the past, and is to include observations of
        vertical dissolved oxygen profiles in conjunction with CTD casts, and
        ancillary biological parameters (pigments, productivity) from a small
        ship. Process studies will be conducted in concert with the time series
        observations in the field. One componrnt is examining measurements of
        community respiration, both in the water column and benthic
        environments. The rate of oxygen consumption will be measured over
        seasonal period@s' at selected sites to-der-i-ve oxygen utilization
        parameters for validating predictive models. An assessment of the
        impact of hypoxia on living marine resources is an integral part of
        this research. This research assess the influence of low oxygen
        concentrations-4on 'commercially important demersal fish and shellfish
        (especially shrimp) populations.

        2. Modeling.   A primary objective of the modeling components with
        respect to hypoxia is to achieve a predictive capability allowing
        successful forecasting of the timing and spatial distribution of
        events. As in the productivity component, diagnostic models are
        dveloped to assist individual principal investigators in the analysis
        of their data. More advanced modeling efforts, probably during the
        outyears of the program, will incorporate advective fluxes of oxygen,
        carbon and respiration rates to derive a predictive capability for
        oxygen distributions on the shelf. This will require the combined
        input of physical parameters, productivity, and carbon flux (advective
        and sinking) at various locations on the shelf. When combined with the
        DO utilization rates, the efforts should be capable of predicting the
        temporal development and decay of hypoxia at specific sites.

        D. Carbon Flux


        1. Process Studies. The fate of organic carbon in the plume, shelf and
        slope waters and the underlying sediments is of utmost importance in
        determining the linkage between anthropogenic nutrient inputs and the
        impact of enhanced production. The research program examining the fate
        of carbon can be focused on two sets of linked processes: the
        utilization of photosynthetically-fixed carbon by consumers and the
        fate of organic carbon sinking from the euphotic zone to sediments.
        These processes are linked by the 'bio-packaging' of phytoplankton
        carbon sinking to the bottom by grazing herbivores (Nelsen and Trefry,
        1986). A complete understanding the cycling of organic carbon by
        consumers also includes studies of dissolved carbon utilization by
        microbial organisms as well as quantifying the micro- and
        macro-zooplankton abundance, biomass, and grazing-fecal pellet
        production rates. If feasible, the abundance and distribution of
        zooplankton should be related to the growth and survival of juvenile
        fish, particularly the commercially important species which are
        examined in relation to hypoxia (see above). The microbial heterotroph
        and zooplankton studies are to -be made in conjunction with the seasonal
        productivity studies in the field.

          A specific task is to determine the quantity of phytoplankton carbon



                                         "0269













             which is unassimilated (excreted as dissolved carbon and fecal
             pellets); the particulate fraction represents an important source of
             carbon input to the sediments. The fate of carbon in the benthos will
             is quantified by measurements of nutrient regeneration, benthic
             respiration and carbon deposition to sediments, with particular
             emphasis on hypoxic areas.

                 Another NECOP component is examining rates of particulate carbon
             flux in plume and shelf waters by floating sediment traps for
             short-term fluxes. The rates of carbon flux to sediments provides an
             indication of 1) the carbon source suppo-iiiing oxygen demand in benthic
             hypoxic regions and 2) the potential for carbon export from the shelf
             to the slope and deep sea' for prolonged burial. The quantitative
             assessment of this flux serves to assess whether or not enhanced
             productivity oh the shelf is an important carbon sink for long-term
             burial of anthropogenic carbon in deep sediments (e.g., Walsh et al.,
             1981).

                 Sediment resuspension during short-term events, such as winter
             storms or hurricanes, and mass wasting are transport processes which
             could rapidly move a significant quant@4t-y-ef biogenic carbon from
             nearshore regions to the deep sea for long-term burial. A potentially
             important process for sediment, and organic carbon, transport offshelf
             is via particle transport down the Mississippi Canyon, as suggested by
             the fact that sedimentation rates in the Canyon are two-fold greater
             than on the adjacent shelf to the east. The potential offshore
             transport of carbon from the shelf to slope Idepocenters, is being
             evaluated as an important objective in quantifying carbon flux.

             2. Modelinq. Two modeling approaches are relating the fate of carbon
             in 'Ehe plume/shelf system, with both efforts orienting the resultq-to
             productivity and hypoxia. The first efforts are concentrating on
             assembling the existing data for box models which, as in the
             productivity and hypoxia components, are guiding hypotheses development
             and desi-gn of field experiments.

             E. FY 1990-91 Field Program:

                 The field effort for the first year (FY1990) is concentrating on
             process studies and hypoxic region development. A three ship study is
             planned for July-August, 1990, including the N/S BALDRIGE, the R/V Gyre
             and the R/V PELICAN. A series of overflights from a NASA jet with
             Airborne Ocean Color Imagers (AOCI and CAMS) will supplement the
             synoptic view of the Mississippi River plume and contiguous hypoxic
             regions. Prior surveys for monitoring the region during State of
             Louisiana funded LASER cruises will provide information on the design
             of the specific field sampling plan. The overall objective is to
             provide a description of the buoyancy flux and nutrient input to the
             coastal waters from the Mississippi River. Emphasis will be placed on
             the input of nutrients and organic carbon from the Mississippi River to
             the shelf. The specific FY1990 program components within NECOP are
             listed in Table 1 with 'a brief description of the research objectives.
             These basic program elements will be maintained in FY1991 and
             additional funding will be focussed on developing an effort in nitrogen










        uptake into lowest trophic levels and a field program in the
       Atchafalaya outflow and Atchafalaya Bay.

       VXX. PROGRAM PRODUCTS


         FY91 Products.

            Program products during FY 91 will be the result of the initial
         field experiment-(summer, 1990) and the F-Y 91 cruise (February-March,
         1991) and are listed below. The scientific value and validity of these
         products will be judged as high when.resu@ts are published in peer
         reviewed journals. The social value-will be measured in terms how
         successfully they add to the synthesis of useful information resulting
         from the program and recommendations emanating therefrom.

           Documentation of the intensity and areal extent of hypoxia on the
         Louisiana Shelf during summer, 1990. To be presented at a PI meeting
         in late 1991 and concomitant report.

         * Evaluation historical data sets and core data to provide a
         historical record of carbon flux, hypoxia and nutrient inputs to the
         Shelf. Estimates of seasonal and interannual variability will be
         assessed based on the feasibility of 'biomarkers', and preliminary
         correlations attempted for relating these patterns to environmental
         records. To be presented at a PI meeting in late 1991 and concomitant
         report.

         * A preliminary understanding of the physical, chemical, and
         biological aspects of Plume/Shelf water interactions from monitoring
         and process-ofiented observations duringthe summer months. To be
         presented at a--PI meeting in late 1991 and concomitant report.

           Initial results from an ecological models utilizing existing data
         and observations from the summer, 1990 cruise and spring, 1991 cruise
         to quantitatively examine linkages among nutrient inputs, primary
         productivity, particle transport and oxygen demand on the Shelf. To be
         presented at a PI meeting in late 1991 and concomitant report.

         B. Long-Term Products

         * Quantifying the impact of terrestrial nutrients on the productivity
         of our coastal oceans.

         * A capability to predict the impact that nutrient control strategies
         are likely to have on productivity.

          A capability to predict the likelihood of hypoxi.c/anoxic events as
         a function of physical, chemical, and biological parameters in the
         coastal oceans.

         * Quantitatively determine the role which the coastal oceans play in
         the marine carbon cycle, and an estimate of the flux of biogenic
         carbon to the deep sea from these oceans.











              The development of new measurement and modeling capabilities in
           NOAA, and the oceanographic community as a whole.


           VIII. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND REVIEW

           A. Program Management Goals

               1. Meet program objectives as_    presented in NOAA Coastal Ocean
                  Program Plan and Program Implementation Plan.

               2. Support the best science possible.

               3. Encourage,large, interdisciplinary proposals rather than small,
                  individual principle investigator efforts.

               4. Encourage cooperative efforts between OAR laboratory scientists
                  and Sea Grant university researchers.

               5. Support a multiyear research effort.

               6. Ensure that funded research is completed and useful products
                  produced.

          B. Progra Management Plan

               1. Program Management Committee

               The   Program Management Committee (PMC) will       be the senior
               coordinating group in the program management structure.      The PMC
               will report to the Assistant Administrator of OAR or his designee
               who will have ultimate approval authority over program technical
               and spending plans.    The committee shall be comprised of three
               members:


                   (a) A Senior Member of OAR Headquarters.

                   (b) A Senior ERL Scientist.

                   (c) A Sea Grant Director or his/her designee.

               The Program Management Committee will:

                   (a) Appoint the Technical Advisory Committee.

                   (b)  Issue the annual Call for Proposals.

                   (c)  Appoint proposal evaluation panels.

                   (d)  Develop the annual program plan.

                   (e)   Coordinate interagency cooperation, e.g.* with the MMS
                        Gulf of Mexico physical oceanography program.










                 (f) Coordinate intra-NOAA and intra-COP cooperati'on, e.g.,
                      cooperation with other COP elements such as CoastWatch,
                      Coastal Fisheries Ecosystems Recruitment and EHRP.

                 (g) Conduct such program reviews as it deems necessary.

       2.   Technical Advisory Committee

            The Technical Advisory Committee (TAt) will serve as the major
            source of program guidance and planning for the PMC. The TAC will
            be   composed of scientists       f.rom---the Environmental    Research
            Laboratories, the Gulf Coast Sea Grant program and other NOAA line
            organizations.    The PMC and the Field Coordinator will be members.
            The PMC may appoint other members of the TAC as needed.
                       4
       Primary functions of the TAC will be to:

                 1. Based on the Implementation Plan, identify for the PMC the
                    priority subjects/research areas to be addressed by the
                    annual call for proposals.

                 2. Given a total budget, recommend a level of effort for each
                    priority research area.

                 3. Advise the PMC as to adjustments in the Implementation Plan
                    in future years.

                 4. Address the organization of program-wide functions such as
                    data management.

                 5. Address other issues as requested by't'he PMC.

       C.   NECOP Executive Director


            A NOAA Corps Officer will be selected to serve as Executive
            Director of the program. This officer will work to implement the
            decisions of the PMC, as advised by the TAC, and to assist the
            Field Coordinator (see below).

       D.   Program Field Coordination

            A Program Field Coordinator position will be established at AOML.
            The Field Coordinator will have full responsibility for the
            day-to-day conduct of the program.        The Field Coordinator will
            establish P.I. coordinating and technical groups as needed to carry
            out his/her responsibilities.

       E. Ad Hoc.Committee

       The-PMC will establish as needed the following:

            1. Proposal Revie;d Panel(s).

            One or more proposal review panels will be established by the PMC.


                                           d I/










              The number and composition 6f the panels will be determined by the
              call for proposals. The panel will be comprised of both academic
              and   Federal laboratory scientists;      none will be      potential
              investigators or their close associates. The panel will evaluate
              the scientific merit of proposed research and advise the PMC on the
              merit of and modifications required of submitted proposals.

              2. Program Review Panels.

              As   necessary, the PMC will appoint a panel to review the
              organization, operation, and ac.&omgllshments of the program and to
              advise the PMC on any changes that seem desirable.













































                                          ,,2

















          IX 1991 BUDGET

                                                ($K)

               Process Studies                  $1041.0

               Hypoxia Monitoring                211.0

               Hypoxia Modeling                  150.0

               Remote Sensing                      45.0

               Retrospective Analysis

                    Sedimentary Records          175.0

                    Nutrients                      19.0


               Data Management                     92.0

               Program Management                100.0

               Ship Time                         117.0


               Total                            $1950.0























                                           ,246














          X. NECOP DATA MANAGEMENT PLAN

          Per the recommendation of the NECOP Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
          the NECOF data servicing function will be located at NOAA/AOML (Miami).
          it will be established in cooperation with NOAA/NODC and co-located
          with the Southeastern U.S. NODC Liaison Officer, who is stationed at
          AOML.

          NECOP data servicing staff will consist of the NODC Liaison Officer and
          a NECOP Data Manager. The NODC Lialson Officer will receive salary
          support    from NODC and NECOP will provide support for specific
          activities related to NECOP data management, e.g., travel. The NECOP
          Data Manager will be an AOML employee supported by NECOP funds and
          supervised by D. 1@. Atwood with significant work leadership provided by
          the NODC Liaison Officer. The data manager will be hired as a GS-09
          scientist at an M.S. level or equivalent. In addition AOML employees
          will provide technical hardware and software expertise to the data
          management operation with minimal cost to NECOP.

          The NODC Liaison Officer will use existing contacts and authority to
          expeodite data submissions in a timely manner. The NECOP Data Manager
          will maintain the data base and provide assistance to project PI1s.,9n
          data su bmission. Such assistance will include travel to various
          research sites to assist in establishing communication links and
          maintaining same.

          The system will be "PC based" and operate at a level where remote PI
          interface will allow listing of data sets available and transfer of
          same to and from the main"the primary computer. Remote access to the
          primary  computer operating system and"relational-- database will not be
          allowed  except to the system manager(s). The primary computer at AOML
          will be  of the Intel 486 type with Write Once Read Many (WORM) optical
          disk(s)  as the primary data storage site. The installation will have
          three dedicated telephone lines to allow communication through a NECOP
          Bulletin Board and communication software (e.g., PROCOM) at PI sites.
          The possibility of providing access through OMNET will also be
          explored. The NECOP data management function will include purchase of
          communication software and licenses and installation at PI sites where
          necessary. Data sets will be appropriately flagged as to the extent of
          quality control and proprietary nature of the d  ata.

          Most of the PC based communication software will probably operate at
          1200 or 2400 baud which may be too slow for some transfers of data,
          therefore,  linkage@ through the existing SPAN network will'also be
          provided and large data sets, e.g., ocean color, acoustic doppler
          current   profiles, etc., will have to be transfered by mailing
          diskettes.

          The NECOP data servicing function will represent a remote data entry
          station for NODC. once data is in machine readable formats and quality
          controlled it will be transferred to NODC in appropriate formats.

          The following general data sets are anticipated.




                                           ,27












        - Primary productivity.
        - Pigments
        - CTD
        - Nutrients
        - Ocean color
        - Acoustic doppler current profiles (ADCP)
        - Current meter records
        - Sediment trap data
        - Transmissometer data
        - In situ plankton camera data and re.sulting zooplankton counts
        - Benthic respiration data
        - AVHHR data interpretations
        - Benthic biota
        - Demersal fisW
        - Dissolved oxygen
        - In situ irradiance
        - In situ fluoresence
        - Sediment cores
        - Numerous othex-direct ob
                                 ,WrXational and derived data sets
        - Historical data sets as required by investigators

        All data collected by funded PI's must be submitted to the AOML Data
        Servicing Center within one year of collection. For the first 18 months
        after collection the PIOs proprietary rights to the data are recognized
        and said PI will has sign off authority on release of said data. During
        this 18 month period PI's are encouraged to share data on a cooperative
        basis. After 18 months the data will be transferred to NODC for final
        archival and will be considered available to the general community.














        XI. REFERENCES


        Andersson, L., and L. Rydberg. 1988. Trends in nutrient and oxygen
             conditions within the Kattegat: effects of local nutrient supply.
             Est. Coast. Shelf Sci. 26:

        Cloern, J. E. 1987. Turbidity as a control on phytoplankton biomass and
             productivity in estuaries. Cont. Shelf Res. 7: 1367-1381.

        Dagg, M. J. 1988. Physical and biological responses to the passage of a
             winter storm in the coastal and inner--shelf waters of the northern
             Gulf of Mexico. Cont. Shelf Res.-8: 167-178.

        D'Elia, C. F., J. G. Sanders, adn W. R. Boynton. 1986. Nutrient
             enrichment studies in a coastal plain estuary: phytoplankton growth
             in large-scale continuous cultures. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 43:
             397-406.

        French, C. 0. 1981. Gulf of Mexico: A socioeconomic view of competing
             resources. In: Proceed. Symposium on Environmental Research Needs
             in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX). 30 Sept. to 5 Oct., 1979. D.K.
             Atwood., Ed. NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL. pp. 1 - 40.

        Everett, D. E. 1971. Hydrologic and quality characteristics of the
             lower Mississippi River. Louisiana Dept. of Pub. Works & U. S.
             beol. Survey. 48 pp.

        Gaston, G. R. 1985. Effects of hypoxia on macrobenthos of the inner
             shelf off Cameron, Louisiana. Estuar. Coast. Mar. Sci. 20: 603-613.

        Holeman, J.N. 1968. The sediment yield of major rivers of the' world.
             Water Resources Res. 4; 737-747.

        Holle, C. G. 1967. Sedimentation at the mouth of the Mississippi River.
             In: Proc. Second Conf. on Coast. Engineering. Univ. of Calif Press,
             Berkely CA. pp. 111-129.

        Justic, D. 1987..- Long-term eutrophication of the northern Adriatic Sea.
             Mar. Pollut. Bull. 18: 281-284.

        Kempe, S. 1988. Estuaries- Their natural and anthropogenic changes.
             In: Scales and Global Change. Ed. by T. Rosswall, R.G. Woodmansee,
             and P. G. Risser. John Wiley & Sons, pp. 251-285.

        Lasker, R., and K. Sherman. 1981. The early life history of fish:
             recent studies. Rapp. P.-v. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer 178: 607
             pp-

        Leming, T.D., and W. E. Stuntz. 1984. Zones of coastal hypoxia revealed
             by satellite scanning have implications-for strategic fishing.
             Nature. 310: 136-138.

        Moody, C.L. 1967. Gulf  of Mexico distributive province. Amer. Assoc.
             Pet. Geol. Bull. 51: .179-199.





                                             9













        Moore, B., III, and Bolin, B. 1987. The oceans, carbon dioxide and
            global change. Oceanus. 29: 9-15.

        Nelsen, T.A., and J.H. Trefry. 1986. Pollutant-particle relationships
            in the marine environment: A study of particulates and their fate
            in a major river-delta-shelf system. Rapp. P.-v. Reun. Cons. int.
            Explor. Mer. 186: 115-127.

        Officer, C. B., R. B. Biggs, J. L. Ta.ft,_. L. E. Cronin, M. A. Tyler, and
            W. R. Boynton. 1984. Chesapeake Bay ari-oxia: origin, development and
            significance. Science. 223: 22-'27.

        Price, K. S., D. A.. Flemer, J. L. Taft, G. B. Mackiernan, W. Nehsen, R.
            B. Biggs, i4. H. Burger, and D. A. Blaylock. 1985. Nutrient
            enrichment of Chesapeake Bay and its impact on the habitat of
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            97-106.

        Rabalais, N. N. 1987. oxygen depleted waters on the Louisiana
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        Rabalais, N. N. in press. Hypoxia on the continental shelf of the
            northwestern Gulf of Mexico. in: Proc. Symposium on the Physical
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            Serv. May 24 - 26, Galveston, TX.

        Rabalais, N. N., R.E. Turner, W. J. Wiseman, Jr., D'. F. Boesch. 1986a.
            Hydrographic, biological and nutrient characteristics of the-water
            column in the Mississippi Bight, June, 1985 to December, 1-985.
            Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) Data Report #2.
            Chauvin, LA.

              . 1986b. Hydrographic, biological and nutrient characteristics of
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        Renaud, M.L. 1986. Hypoxia in Louisiana coastal waters during 1983:
            implications for fisheries. Fish. Bull. 84: 19- 26.

        Richards, F. A. 1957. oxygen in the ocean. In: Treatise on Marine
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        Rowe, G. T., S. Smith, P. Falkowski, T. Whitledge, R. Theroux, W.
            Phoel, and H. Ducklow. 1986. Do continental shelves export organic
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        Ryther, J. H., and W. M. Dunstan. 1971. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and
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            1008-1013.

        Sklar, F. H., and R. E. Turner. 1981. Characteristics of phytoplankton











              production off Barataria Bar in an area influenced by the
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          Swanson, R.L., and C. J. Sindermann (editors). 1979. Oxygen depletion
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          Trefry, J. H., S. Metz, R. P. Trocine; and T. A. Nelsen. 1985. A
              decline in lead transport by the Mississippi River. Science. 230:
              439-441.

          Turner, R. E., R. Kaswadji, N. N. Rabalais, and D. F. Boesch. 1987.
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          Turner, R. E., and R. L. Allen. 1982. Plankton respiration rates in the
              bottom waters of the Mississippi River delta bight. Contr. Mar.
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          Walsh, J. J. 1983. Death in the sea: enig-matic phytoplankton losses.
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              Biological export of shelf carbon is a sink of the global C02
              cycle. Nature. 291: 196-201.










        Table 1. Investigators with the NECOP Program. Principal
        Investigators, institutions, and research component:

        Investigators        Institution          Component

        A. Bratkovich        GLERL                Buoyancy, nutrient flux of
                                                  river plume systems

        0. Dortch            LUMCON               Phytoplankton size and s pecies
                                                  composition

        T. Whitledge         U. Texas             Spatial-temporal variability in
        G. Hitchcock         AOML                 nutrients & pigments

        N. Hawley            GLERL                Concentration, composition and
        T. Nelsen            AOML                 transport of suspended J.
        Trefry               FIT                  sediments

        T. Nelsen            AOML                 Retrospective analysis of
        B. Eadie             GLERL                productivity in sediments
        B. McKee             LUMCON               from the Louisiana shelf
        J. Trefry            FIT
        P. Blackwelder       RSMAS


        G. Fahnenstiel       GLERL                Primary productivity and the
        S. Lohrenz           USM/CMS              vertical flux of carbon in
        G. Knauer            USM/CMS              the Louisiana shelf waters
        D. Redalje           USM/CMS

        M. Dagg              LUMCON               Zooplankton grazing and the
        P. Ortner            AOML                 fate of carbon

        H. Mofjeld           PMEL                 A time dependent model of
                                                  productivity-hypoxia

        W. Gardner           GLERL                The fate and effect of R.
        Benner               U Texas              dissolved organic matter

        G. Rowe              TAMU                 Benthic metabolism measured
                                                  with a GOMEX benthic lander

        F. Kelly             TAMU                 Satellite estimation of surface
        D. Vastano           TAMU                 flow fields & river plume
                                                  evolution


        N. Rabalais          LUMCON               Impact of hypoxia on benthic D.
        Harper               TA14U                organisms

        W. Wiseman           LSU                  Modeling of hypoxia on the V.
        Bierman              LTI                  inner Louisiana Shelf

        N. Rabalais          LUMCON               Hypoxia modeling and related R.
        Turner            LUMCON                  process studies
        W. Wiseman           LSU








          T. Leming           NMFSISSC             Large scale synoptic sampling
          R. Miller           NASA/SSC             of surface chlorophyll and
          M. Dagg             LUMCON               suspended sediment
          B. McKee            LUMCON















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                            FY 1991 Coastal Ocean Implementation Plan
                                    for the NOAA/OAR/ARL program on




                 ATMOSPHERIC NUTRIENT INPUT TO COASTAL AREAS
                                              (ANICA)




                                                 Revised



                                              February 1991





                                               Prepared by





                                          J. Miller and B. Hicks


                                      NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
                                          1325 East West Highway
                                         Silver Spring, MD 20910
                                           Telephone: 427-7684













                                                   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



                The FY 1991 ANICA program will focus on the Chesapeake Bay watershed, where strong
                evidence already exists that excess nutrient input to the Bay is affecting its biological
                productivity and is reducing its attractiveness as a recreational resource. There is a large pool
                of nutrients contained within the water body of the Bay, and especially in its sediments, which
                is slowly being increased as a results of inflow primarily from streams and rivers. Some of this
                input is known to be a result of deposition from the air to the catchment area serving the Bay.
                The long term goal of ANICA is to develop methods for assessing the importance of this
                atmospheric input, using the Chesapeake Bay as a first target of contemporary importance (as
                evidenced by its specific mention in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990).

                There is already a large, multi-organizational research effort addressing the Chesapeake Bay
                problem. The ANICA program is designed to interface with this effort, so as to bring to bear
                the unique skills of NOAA that relate to the problem of deposition to landscapes. Without this
                component, the large-scale effort to investigate the nutrient characteristics of the Chesapeake Bay
                will fail to show how much of the problem is due to atmospheric inputs, and inappropriate
                control strategies might then result.

                FY 1991 goals of ANICA are modest --

                        ï¿½      To initiate collaborative work on the problem of nitrogen transport processes that
                               involve the terrestrial, riverine and atmospheric paths to and within the
                               Chesapeake Bay.

                        ï¿½      To form a Consortium of actively involved researchers from among local
                               university, state, and federal research establishments.

                        ï¿½      To commence measurement of atmospheric nitrogen fluxes to a single calibrated
                               catchment area within the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

                        ï¿½      To assemble all the wet and dry deposition data presently available for the
                               Chesapeake Bay watershed and begin data analysis.

                        ï¿½      To initiate a data system combining catchment deposition data with streamflow
                               and water quality information.

                The program    is proposed to start in earnest in FY 92, with an immediate effort to expand the
                single-location deposition focus of FY 91 to a watershed-wide assessment. At this time, it would
                then be possible to relate time records of areal deposition data to similar records of Bay water
                quality and streaniflow information, yielding a first estimate of the spatially averaged
                consequences of retention of nitrogen in soils and vegetation across the catchment area. In




                                                              -37









           subsequent years, the deposition quantifications would be verified against independent budget
           estimates using models, derived from aircraft studies, and the methods that are developed in the
           initial phases of ANICA would be applied to other coastal and/or catchment areas.


           Budget details

                                         FY 91 FY 92 FY 93 FY 94 FY 95 FY 96


           Wet Deposition (ARL Hq)       $15K    90K
           Dry Deposition (ATDD)         25       110
           Aircraft Studies (ARS)                50
           Model Calculations (ASMD)             90
           Synthesis (ARL Hq)                    30


           External                      10      50
            (university, etc.)


                 Total                  $50K $420K $800K $800K $LOM $LOM































                                                -39












                                    FY 1991 Coastal Ocean Implementation Plan
                                             for the NOAA/OAR/ARL program on

                       ATMOSPHERIC NUTRIENT INPUT TO COASTAL AREAS
                                                         (ANICA)



                I Background

                Man can disturb the natural environment in many ways, particularly when disposing of the
                wastes resulting from his activities. A prime example of this is the influx of man-made
                nutrients, mainly in the form of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds to estuary and coastal
                areas, which may result in the long-term decline of marine life. Though we often think of
                nutrients as being beneficial to life, an overabundance may cause perceptible water quality
                deterioration as well as chronic or intermittent health hazards, including toxicity and losses of
                aesthetic and hence recreational values of affected waters (Paerl, 1988).           This potential
                degradation has been documented in the companion OAR proposals under the Nutrient Enhanced
                Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) activities, 1989.

                The natural ecological state of lakes, estuaries and coastal areas is typically determined by a
                balance between nutrient inflow and outflow, each being relatively small in comparison to the
                amount of nutrient recycled within the ecosystem itself. The impact of changes in the nutrient
                loading to a body of water is consequently not quickly evident; the "insult" accumulates over
                time, and it is only after many years that adverse effects start to become evident. At first, these
                effects may be subtle, but eventually they may well lead to eutrophication. The time scale over
                which effects may become apparent is determined by the magnitude of the imposed loading,
                relative to the nutrient "pool" contained within the water body itself The larger the change in
                net loading, the more rapid the onset of eutrophication. The Chesapeake Bay is of special
                concern because the loading rate is now relatively high; in some circles, it is feared to be such
                that the time scale for eutrophication may be reduced to less than twenty years.

                Until recently, rivers were considered the only important conduit for nutrients from sources such
                as commercial fertilizers, animal waste and municipal/industrial discharge.              However,
                preliminary analyses of atmospheric deposition measurements have shown that the atmosphere
                can be an important path of nitrogen compounds (nitrate, ammonium, and possibly organic
                nitrogen) to estuarine and coastal waters, particularly in the northeastern U.S. and Canada
                (Paerl, 1985; Fisher et al., 1988; GESAMP, 1989). On the other hand, only a very small
                percentage of phosphorus and other nutrients are estimated to come through the atmospheric path
                (Duce, 1986).




                                                               3q









              Over the last decade, NOAA has taken an active part in investigations of nitrogen deposition,
              both as part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) and as the source
              of technical guidance to the Environmental Protection Agency. Under NAPAP, research has
              focused on the effects of acid rain, particularly those of sulfuric (H2SO4) and nitric acids (HN03)
              on forests, crops, lakes, freshwater streams and materials. Ammonia and ammonium deposition
              has also been measured under this program. Investigation of the coastal waters has not been an
              identified part of the acid rain research, though specific projects such as the Western Atlantic
              Ocean Experiment (WATOX) were closely related. However, the NAPAP results, summarized
              in a series of assessment documents which covered a ten year period of research activities,
              provide us with information and a number of tools that can be used to build a foundation for
              investigating nitrogen deposition to coastal areas (Irving, 1990).

              Based on the NAPAP studies and other considerations, the Congress passed at the end of 1990
              the Clean Air Act Amendments (S 1630). This act placed into law a number of reporting
              requirements for NOAA regarding NAPAP and specifically relating to Coastal Ocean studies.
              For example, the law states

                      "The Administrator of EPA, in cooperation with the Administrator of NOAA,
                      shall report every two years on the contribution of atmospheric deposition
                      loadings to the Great Lakes, the Chesapeake Bay, Lake Champlain, and coastal
                      waters. Moreover, the sources of any pollution that cause the deposition from the
                      atmosphere must be identified. "

              Thus NOAA has a direct charge to investigate atmospheric inputs to lakes, estuaries and coastal
              waters. Since this proposal deals with atmospheric transport of nutrients to the catchment area
              of the Chesapeake Bay, it can contribute significantly to requirements spelled out in the Clean
              Air Act.


              We begin to address the problem by focusing on nitrate, where it has been shown that its wet
              and dry deposition from the atmosphere is dominated by the products of chemical reactions,
              largely derived from nitrogen oxides (NO and N02 = NOJ. The major emissions come from
              transportation and utility sources (Figure 1). Nitrogen oxides are released in the atmosphere
              where they are transformed into nitric acid by photochemical processes.                 During this
              transformation process, these compounds may be transported over hundreds or even thousands
              of kilometers. Eventually, the nitrate is deposited, either by incorporation in particulate form
              in cloud and rain drops (leading to "wet deposition") or by gas (NOJ transfer and particle
              settling and impaction ("dry deposition") to the surface (Hicks, 1989). If our hypothesis that
              the atmosphere is a significant path for nitrate to the coastallestuarine areas is correct, then
              anticipated increases in NO. anthropogenic emissions of up to 50% (Figure 2) will have a direct
              impact by adding to the atmospheric nitrate loading. Present international negotiations on NO,,
              emission reductions may effect this emission increase, but it remains clear that if riverine nitrates
              are cut back by regulatory actions, atmospheric wet and dry deposition would become an even
              more important factor in potential damage to marine life including eutrophication and nuisance
             Algal blooms in estuarine and coastal areas.



                                                               Z-/O



















                                                                   other
                                                                   1.06%




                                              USIdes
                                              33.OS%-


                                                                                         Trans.
                                                                                        43.06%




                                     Oftr Comb.
                                                                                                     63   Other
                                         3.43%                                                       0    Tfansportation
                                                                                       NOx           0    Industrial Combus6on
                                                    4.50%                                            13   Indvstrialoganufacturing Procossos
                                                                Ind. bomb.                           0    Other Cornbustion
                                                                  14.91%                             M    Utilities



                                          Figure 1. Distribution of NO., emissions by source in percent.
                                                                         (Source: NAPAP)


                                  Emissions (108 metric tons/yr)


                                                                                                                              EHP/EPA/B
                                                                                                                              E H P/ E PA /A
                                  30-                                                                                         ANL/NEPP -



                                                                                       0
                                  25-                                                  1@
                                                                          4f-e#0100,         Total
                                                            we.00111 0                   Emissions
                                  20-


                                  15-                                                                                         EHP/EPA/B
                                           ANL/NAPAP                                                                          EHP/EPA/A
                                  10-                                                                            __-----ANL/NEPP
                                                     00000@r-                                Utility
                                     5-       00000                                       Emissions


                                     0-              1              1     -
                                    1970          1980           1990           2000          2@10         20@20          20'30          2   0
                                                                                       Year


                         Figure 2. Projections of total NO, emissions based on calculations of different groups.
                                                                          (Source: NAPAP)











                The role of atmospheric transport in providing an important path for nitrogen to estuarine areas
                was recently underlined in the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) report (Fisher et al., 1988).
                Based on one year of measurements (1984), the authors estimated that one third of the nitrogen
                (nitrate and ammonium) entering the Chesapeake Bay comes via the atmosphere. Though many
                scientists working in the acid rain field were at first skeptical about the report, a closer reading
                showed that the assumptions made were reasonable. Specifically, the authors took the wet
                deposition of nitrate and ammonium to the Chesapeake Bay's watershed from the nearby
                National Acid Deposition Program monitoring sites. Dry deposition to the Bay and catchment
                area was taken to be equal to the wet deposition. Using the other known contributions from
                riverine sources, a rough budget was formulated for nitrogen loadings to the Bay. This is shown
                in Figure 3. From this preliminary estimate it was clear that the atmospheric path is an
                important one for the Bay. A more comprehensive study of nitrate deposition, sponsored by the
                State of Maryland (Tyler, 1998), confirmed the EDF estimate that nitrate from the atmosphere
                comprised about one quarter of the total man-made nitrate entering the Bay.


                                      Sources of Nitrogen-The Mtershed




                                                                                  Atmospheric
                              Animal Wa
                                            ste                                       Nitrate
                                                                                        23%
                                     32%






                               Atmospheric
                                                                                      Fertilizers
                                Ammonium                                                  25%
                                     13%

                                                     Point Sources
                                                           7%



                                Figure 3. A preliminary estimate of the sources of nitrogen in
                                   the Chesapeake watershed. (Source: Fisher et al., 1988)










               The Chesapeake Bay is not the only estuary on the East Coast that is affected by nitrogen
               deposition. Another system, the Narragansett Bay, is a watershed that is much smaller than the
               Chesapeake. However, a first rough estimate shows that about 18 % of the total deposition could
               come from the wet and dry deposition of nitrate (Huebert, 1990). Farther south in the New
               York Bight, a rough figure of about 37% is given for nitrogen coming from the atmosphere
               (URI, 1989). Given the very preliminary evidence from these three major East Coast areas, it
               is reasonable to speculate that most estuaries in this region experience significant atmospheric
               contributions to their nitrogen loading.

               The problem of nitrogen deposition to coastal waters is not unique to the North American
               continent. Scientists have evidence that there is significant contribution from atmospheric
               nitrogen to European marine areas. A recent summary by Hdgerhdll (1990) has shown that a
               large portion comes via the atmosphere even in the polluted Baltic and North Seas (Table 1).
               Further it has been suggested that transport to the open oceans of nitrogen may have an impact
               on biological activity in remote regions (Michaels, 1990). It goes without saying that the
               atmospheric movement of nutrients is not only of regional importance but has global
               implications.

                                  Table 1. Inputs of nitrogen from various sources to the
                                            North Sea and the Baltic Sea areas.
                                                  (Source: Hdgerhgl 1990)



                                                          Sources (tonnes per year)
                      Area            Rivers         Direct       Atmospheric       Dumping         Total
                 No      ea        1,000,000         95,000          400,000         11,700      1,500,
                 Baltic Sea          449,000         80,000          413,000            ---       940,



               Though the atmosphere was already known to be a ma or path of transport for many substances
                                                                      j
               in the environment, the EDF report did a great service by pointing out the potential importance
               of this mechanism in East Coast estuaries. The large uncertainties of the studies to date,
               however, make it imperative that we develop a better understanding of the processes that
               transport and deposit nitrogen to the estuaries and coastal zones as wen as potential biotic
               impacts. This proposal - Atmospheric Nutrient Input to Coastal Areas (ANICA) - outlines a
               plan to address this problem through a measurement and modeling approach. It seeks to
               quantify the contribution of atmospheric nitrogen to the total loading of nutrient nitrogen to
               coastal and estuarine waters especially in light of the anticipated increase in NO,, emissions.

               In addition, and as a result of collaboration with other research groups focusing on the
                                                                                                       000
                                                                                                       000













               Chesapeake Bay, the ANICA program will provide quantitative information on the retention of




                                                             @3









              nutrients by soils and biological components of the landscape. The question here is critical
              if the landscape is saturated in nitrate, for example, then all of the atmospheric nitrate falling
              to the entire watershed will flow into the Chesapeake Bay. However, some of the deposited
              nitrate will serve as a nutrient to watershed vegetation, and hence only part of the deposited
              nitrate will flow into the Bay. The simple question is -- "How much?"


              II Objectives

              As an atmospheric component of the nutrient research program of NOAA's Coastal Ocean
              initiative, the long term objectives of the research program are:

                     0 To determine the wet and dry deposition of nitrogen to certain East Coast estuarine
                     areas selected for intensive study (the Chesapeake Bay will be the first area of study).
                     This would include determining nitrogen inputs separately to the water surface area itself
                     and to its catchment area,

                     0 To develop a strategy for assessing the dry and wet deposition affecting other coastal
                     watersheds in the Northeastern United States and Maritime Canada, on the basis of the
                     measurements that are made during the initial part of the program,

                         To apply the models that are developed in this program to describe and predict
                     present and future atmospheric deposition scenarios for catchment areas impacted by
                     nitrogen deposition,

                     0 To link the findings from ANICA with the ecological and terrestrial components of
                     NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program.

              The specific objectives for FY 91 are as follow.

                     0 To initiate collaborative work on the problem of nitrogen transport processes that
                     involve the terrestrial, riverine and atmospheric paths to and within the Chesapeake Bay.
                     This will be accomplished by forming the ANICA Consortium (See Section VI) and
                     supporting pertinent workshops.

                     0 To commence measurement of atmospheric nitrogen fluxes to a calibrate catchment
                     area within the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

                     0    To assemble all the wet and dry deposition data presently available for the
                     Chesapeake Bay watershed and begin data analysis.

                     0 To initiate a data system combining catchment deposition data with strearnflow and
                     water quality information.





                                                             @Ll











                 M Approach

                 The major question that must be addressed can be expressed as follows:

                         How much of the nutrients that contribute to enWronmental disruption in our
                         estuaries and coastal areas comes via the atmosphere?

                 In this regard, it is important to recognize that the deposition of relevance is not only that to the
                 exposed water surface itself, but also to the surrounding catchment area.              It is clearly
                 inappropriate to assume that nitrogen compounds deposited to the watershed as a whole will all
                 enter the Chesapeake Bay itself, since there will be considerable exchange occurring during
                 transport through soils and in streams. There is large uncertainty about the proportion of
                 deposition occurring to land surfaces which affects the water body of the Bay. This question
                 will not be addressed directly in the first phases of the ANICA program. Instead, the initial
                 work will focus on defining deposition rates separately to the land and water areas, and on
                 generating an archive of data on strearnflow and water quality as wen as on deposition
                 quantities. In later stages of ANICA, these archived data will be used to address the matter of
                 soil retention of nitrates statistically, such as (in concept, and yet to be refined) by relating
                 changes in stream chemistry to changes in deposition rate. To this end, initial steps will be
                 taken to assure that the compatibility of all sampling protocols; a consortium of participating
                 scientific groups will be set up.

                 Considering the above factors, it is first necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates of
                 other nitrogen inputs from terrestrial and riverine sources affecting the Chesapeake Bay. Thus
                 we propose host a small workshop in the fall of 1991 to assemble a conceptual and
                 organizational framework in which the results of ANICA can be evaluated.

                 Three major technical components will comprise the initial phases of the present research
                 program:


                 1. Measurements


                 0 Wet Deposition to East Coast Areas

                 Because of the NAPAP program, the gross picture of nitrate and ammonium deposition over the
                 United States can be described (Figures 4 and 5). However, there may be wide variations of
                 deposition on a regional basis, due to topographical features, seasonal differences from changing
                 meteorological regimes, and year-to-year climatological shifts. To describe the wet deposition
                 in estuarine and coastal areas, a careful study will be made using available monitoring data to
                 establish the range of wet deposition along the Northeast Coast of the North America. Particular
                 effort will be made to develop a complete data base for the Chesapeake Bay water shed to









              include not only the federal and state monitoring sites but also data from individual research
              projects that have been conducted in the area. This study will be used to point out areas where
              additional wet deposition measurements should be made.

              Weather system typing and trajectory analysis will be applied as an additional method to evaluate
              different deposition scenarios. The above data collection and analysis will be completed at
              ARL/Silver Spring under the direction of J. Miller.

              Also, while the wet deposition of inorganic nitrogen to coastal ecosystems has been measured,
              there are no data on the wet deposition of organic nitrogen. Because a few short-term
              measurements indicate that organ may be large (Pedulla, 1988), estimates will be made of this
              deposition based initially on the limited data available. Measurement of organic nitrate will be
              considered during a later phase of the program.







                                                                                                 12
                                      2 2
                                   2                                                         10
                          1 4
                           2                 2                                               15
                                                                                     0




                                             3 4




                           2




                                                                      9         6

                    1985 Annual                  2        6 7
                    Nitrate Deposition
                    kg ha






                                Figure 4. The 1985 annual distribution of N03 deposition.
                                                     (Source: NAPAP)



                                                           1.0     
     
                                                                      2.0 
                                                                 1.3         1.4                          1.2
                       0.4                                                                              
                                                                                                              1.0
                      0.3
     0.8           0.3
  0.2        0.1
0.1  0.2                                0.5                                               5.0
      0.1                        0.2                              3.0     
               0.4                             0.5                            4.0
                

                        2.1

0.1
                                    0.7
                                 0.8

                                      0.6
                                                                                                2.1
                                                                                     2.5         1.8
                                                                                    1.6
                               0.5                                            7  1.8     1.3       
                                                                                                1.0
0.3                   0.3         0.3                                           1.7
   0.6
    0.7                                        
                                                                                            1.4
                                                             2.0           2.2   1.1    
                                                         1.8       2.2    .7  1.4   1.3   1.0
                                        1.0                       1.5                   1.0
                         
                                              0.5           1.5            2.0                          0.6
                                         0.5             1.7                                  0.8
                                                       1.6                     
                                                                                                      1.8

1985 Annual
Ammonium Deposition
kg ha -1


                                        Figure 5. The 1985 annual distribution of NH4 deposition.
                                                           (Source:NAPAP)

               - Dry Deposition to East Coast Areas

               In the estimates made by Fisher et al. (1988) and Tyler (1988), dry deposition of nitrogen was
               calculated only as a percentage of the wet deposition; no measurements were used.  There is
               little doubt that dry deposition to water bodies and their watershed is a very complicated process.
               In order to obtain a more realistic estimate for dry deposition, we propose to apply the
               measurement protocols developed and tested under NAPAP. These methods would quantify dry
               deposition ot experimental catchment areas when only air concentrations and not actual fluxes
               are measured directly.  In practice, sufficient accompanying data must be obtained to permit
               improved dry deposition rates to be computed from air concentration measurements; these
               additional data include meteorological data (site specific), biological species distribution, soil
               characteristics, water status, etc.  Key components of this study will be:

                       a. operation of NOAA's Dry Deposition Inferential Method (DDIM) systems within
                       selected target catchment areas beginning with a Chesapeake Bay location,

                       b. implementation of "benchmarking" field studies to calibrate the DDIM systems,




                                                          47
                           









                     c. development of deterministic models to estimate dry deposition rates from routinely
                     collected field data, and

                     d. extension of the DDIM approach to other areas of interest in the NOAA Coastal
                     Oceans Program.

             The Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division of ARL will take the lead under the
             direction of T. Meyers.

             0 7hree Dimensional Studies

             We will begin to quantify the rate of depletion of nitrogen compounds from air crossing the
             watershed zone of the Chesapeake Bay region. The scientific problem is simply stated but
             difficult to address -- coastal and estuarine areas are often subjected to regular and organized
             wind circulations (i.e., sea breeze ) which can cause locally emitted pollutants to be trapped in
             close contact with the ground, while tending to isolate the surface from pollutants from more
             distant sources. At other times, pollution from distant sources carried above the surface layers
             of the atmosphere can be "fumigated" to the surface and confined within such organized
             circulations as the land-sea breeze. All such behavior patterns inject a new level of complexity
             into the treatment of problem involving transport, diffusion, and deposition. Initial steps will
             be largely exploratory, to be conducted in a range of atmospheric situations so as to "scope" the
             problem and to provide a basis for refining experimental approaches for later years.

             The Global Change Expedition - Coordinated Air-Ship Experiment - Western Atlantic Ocean
             Experiment (GCE/CASE/WATOX) studied the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur
             and trace metals in the North Atlantic Ocean during the summer of 1988. Its primary purpose
             was not to determine the atmospheric nutrient input to coastal areas. However, some results
             from the project can be applied to ANICA. For example, Ray et al. (1990), using data collected
             with the NOAA King Air, found that NOy ratios decreased from less than 3 ppbv above the U.S.
             East Coast to about 1.7 ppbv at 160 km offshore. (NO@ or the total reactive nitrogen is defined
             as the sum of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NQ), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), nitric acid
             (HN03) and nitrate (N03).) They attributed this decrease to conversion of NOy to HN03 and
             N03 with the subsequent deposition to the ocean. Nitrate removal rate was estimated at 3-6%
             per hour. Assuming a removal rate of 4 % per hour and a 5 m/s offshore air flow, removal will
             be virtually complete with 450 km. If local, coastal recirculation affects the offshore flow,
             complete removal could occur in a much shorter distance. Other studies show similar results
             (Luke and Dickerson, 1987).

             In the Chesapeake Bay case, initial aircraft studies will be conducted at the same time as
             intensive studies of wet and dry deposition to the surface are made, and will be designed to
             reveal the linkages between the large-scale flow of pollutants aloft with their watersheds. The
             methods to be used rely on accurate definition of concentration profiles across the area of
             interest.











               The NOAA King Air will be used to monitor the three dimensional distribution of reactive
               nitrate over the Chesapeake Bay area. This part of the project would be lead by J. Boatman of
               the Aerosol Research Section of ARL. It is expected that a number of university investigators
               would be involved.


               2. Modeling of Deposition to Estuarine Watersheds

               The first project involves measurements and their interpretation in detailing relevant processes.
               Another approach to atmospheric deposition estimation, which win begin in the first year, is to
               use comprehensive atmospheric models, which are constructed using basic physical and chemical
               principles. The model of choice would be the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM), which
               was developed under the NAPAP program. The use of other mesoscale models will. also be
               investigated.

               Initially RADM can provide horizontal fluxes across specific boundaries, budgets and indications
               of spatial patterns of wet and dry deposition on its 80 kni grids. However a number of
               refinements are planned for RADM, which include better nitrogen partitioning, constructing a
               nested grid version of the model, and tagging emission sources so that the origins of the modeled
               nitrogen can be identified. Eventually the data from the measurements from project I will be
               fed back into the model for verification and adjustments of parameters. Because of their
               extensive experience with RADM, the Atmospheric Sciences Modeling DiNiision/ARL under F.
               Schiermeier will take the lead in reconfiguring and applying RADM to the Chesapeake Bay
               study.

               3. Synthesis of ANICA Results with other the Coastal Ocean Program Products

               The initial workshop (as mentioned earlier) will be the first step in the process of synthesis.
               There the framework will be developed to hang the different pieces together. In particular, there
               is need to draw on data obtained in other programs, relating to the chemical composition of
               surface and ground waters. The question of the effect of subsurface chemistry and biology as
               deposited nitrogen compounds are transported through the catchment area towards the
               Chesapeake Bay will be addressed in later phases of this program and win require close
               collaboration between ANICA and other projects of the Coastal Program.

               The requisite links with other Coastal Program activities will be forged early in the process,
               although the requirement for data from them is not until later stages of the ANICA program.
               Early attention will be given to the needs of other programs for data from ANICA, which may
               be more immediate. The facilitator of all such interactions will be ARL/Silver Spring Q.
               Miller).










              IV Program Products

              A. FY 91 Products -

              The following products will be available at the end of the first year of the ANICA program.

                     ï¿½ Workshop reports which will be used in establishing the framework of ANICA.

                     ï¿½ A collection and a preliminary analysis of existing deposition data will be made in
                     order to establish a gross estimate of nutrient deposition to the Chesapeake Bay.

                     0 Preliminary results from field studies aimed at testing methods for measuring dry
                     deposition over catchment areas will be available.

                 FY 92 Products -


              Products that will be available if the funding request at the end of this proposal is granted.

                     0 A first assessment of wet and dry deposition into the Chesapeake Bay will be
                     completed.

                     ï¿½ The initial atmospheric modeling results will become available.

                     ï¿½ Combining the above two activities with other information provided by members of
                     the ANICA Consortium, nutrient inflow and retention to the Chesapeake Bay will be
                     computed.

                     0 Planning will begin for measuring horizontal fluxes of nitrogen compounds into the
                     Chesapeake Bay area and out of it, so as to provide an independent test of the deposition
                     quantifications made above. This will involve use of the NOAA King Air aircraft.

              B. Long Term Products

              In subsequent years, the following products will be provided.

                     0   Results from more intensive field studies that includes aircraft, ship and other
                     platforms will be published.      As a cooperative program that would involve the
                     participation of several U.S. and Canadian organizations, programs would produce
                     profiles of atmospheric deposition not only to the Chesapeake Bay but also other
                     watersheds and coastal areas in the Northeast.


                     0 The model results will be available so that a more detailed and concise calculation of
                     wet and dry deposition can be made to the Chesapeake Bay and other watersheds. The









                        results will be compared with the accumulated measurements from routine networks and
                        field projects. At that point, a more sophisticated picture can be drawn by combining
                        the measurements with the model. Considerations would be made if the predictive
                        capacity of the model could be employed in order to aid in future control strategies both
                        in the air and water.


                        0 ANICA results will be integrated with other Coastal Ocean research to achieve a
                        comprehensive overview of the impact of nutrients on the marine environment. This
                        would be documented in a series of peer-reviewed publications.


                V Data Management

                The Air Resources Laboratory/NOAA will be responsible for all data archiving in ANICA. This
                function has been considered as being supported through the requested funds.

                The following data sets will be available from the ANICA project in FY 91:

                        0 Wet deposition data for the Northeast U.S. and Canada.

                        A specialized subset of wet deposition data will be prepared for the Chesapeake Bay
                        watershed in which both monitoring and research data will be combined and archived.
                        These data will be drawn from all available sources, examined and quality assured, and
                        archived by ARLISilver Spring.

                        0 Dry deposition data for selected areas of Northeast U.S.

                        Yhe Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffitsion DivisionlARL will collect and archive these
                        data. A small set of data will be available by the end of the first year.

                The long term data management program would remain in ARL and would include the four
                separate parts, wet deposition, dry deposition, aircraft measurements and model calculations.
                Hard copy summaries of the data will be available to the user community the first year.

                The full set of data on disk will be prepared for distribution by the end of the second year. This
                will be updated every two years, in accord with the spirit of the language of the Clean Air Act
                Amendments.


                VI Program Management and Review

                A. Program Management Goals

                        1. Fulfill the scientific goals of ANICA










                    2. Promote interdisciplinary proposals which involve not only NOAA investigators, but
                    also scientists from the academic community. It is expected that a large portion of the
                    resources will go to outside groups primarily in the university community.

                    3. Encourage cooperation with other agencies, such as EPA.

                    4. Support a five-year research effort.

             B. Program Management Plan

             1. Program Coordination Committee-ANICA

             The Program Coordination Committee (PCC-ANICA) will be the senior coordinating group for
             ANICA and be composed of scientists from the Air Resources Laboratory (ARL)/NOAA. This
             group will report to the coordinator of the nutrient research program of NOAA's Coastal Ocean
             initiative. The committee will include five members:


                    B. Hicks, chairperson, ARL Director, Silver Spring, MD
                    J. Boatman, Aerosol Research Section/ARL, Boulder, CO
                    T. Meyers, Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion and Divn./ARL,
                      Oak Ridge, TN.
                    J. Miller, ARL Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD
                    F. Schiermeier, Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Divn./ARL,
                     Research Triangle Park, NC

             The PCC-ANICA will:


                    - Form the ANICA Consortium
                    - Issue a call for proposals
                    - Arrange for evaluation of proposals and manage the contracting to outside groups
                    - Develop the annual program plan
                    - Ensure proper review procedures.

             2. ANICA Consortium


             The ANICA Consortium (ANICA-CON) will serve as the chief source of scientific guidance and
             planning for PCC-ANICA. ANICA-CON will be composed of scientists from ERL, other
             federal agencies, and the university community. This will be the mechanism to entrain outside
             researchers. Functions of this group will be to

                    - Identify, on the basis of the implementation plan, the priority areas to be addressed by
                    internal and external proposals.










                      - Establish priorities based on the funding allotted.

                      - Help in the annual revision of the implementation plan.

                      - Address program-wide concerns such as data management and quantity assurance

                      - Advise on other issues as they arise.

               An informal group/consortium has been established that includes the Smithsonian Environmental
               Research Center; Departments of Meteorology and Chemistry, the University of Maryland; the
               Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY and ARL representatives.

               C. Field Coordination


               A Field Coordinator position will be established at ARL in order to conduct the program on a
               day-to-day basis. J. Mller, Deputy Director, ARL, will fill this position.

               D. Ad Hoc Committees


               The PCC-ANICA will establish ad hoc committees that will help evaluate submitted proposals
               for their inclusion in the project. Members of these committees will be chosen to give
               independent scientific advice.


               VU Budget

                                                 FY 91 FY 92 FY 93 FY 94 FY 95 FY 96


               Wet Deposition (ARL Hq)           $15K      90K
               Dry Deposition (ATDD)              25        110
               Aircraft Studies (ARS)                       50
               Model Calculations (ASMD)                    90
               Synthesis (ARL Hq)                           30


               Extemal                            10        50
                (university, etc.)


                      Total                      $50K $420K $800K $800K $LOM $LOM











            VHI References


            Duce, R. A. 1986: "The impact of atmospheric nitrogen, phosphorus and iron species on
            marine biological productivity" P. Buat-Menard (ed). The Role of Air-Sea Exchange in
            Geochemical Cycling 497-529.

            Fisher, D., J. Ceraso, T. Mathew, and M. Oppenheimer, 1988: Polluted Coastal Waters: The
            Role of Acid Rain Environmental Defense Fund, 257 Park Ave South New York, NY 10010,
            101 pp.

            GESAMP, 1989: The Atmospheric Input of Trace Species to the World Ocean, World
            Meteorological Organization No. 38. 111 pp.

            Hdgerhdll, B. 1990: Coastal seas damaged worldwide by excess nutrients. Acid/Enviro,
            9:18-21.


            Hicks, B. B. 1989: Overview of deposition processes. Chapter 3 of "The Role of Nitrogen in
            the Acidification of Soils and Surface Waters, Nordic Council of Ministers, NORD 1989:92, pp.
            21.

            Huebert, B. J. 1990: personal communication.

            Irving, P. M. 1990: Acidic Deposition: State of Science and Technology, Summary
            Compendium Document, National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, 722 Jackson Place
            NW, Washington, DC 20503, pp 132.

            Luke, W. T., and R. R. Dickerson, 1987: The flux of reactive nitrogen compounds from
            eastern North America to the western Atlantic Ocean. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 1, 329-343.

            Michaels, A. 1990: Personal communication.

            Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) 1989: Draft implementation plan, 20
            PP.

            Paerl, H. W. 1985: Enhancement of marine primary production by nitrogen-enriched acid rain.
            Nature 316:747-749.


            Paerl, H. W. 1988: Nuisance phytoplankton blooms in coastal, estuarine, and inland waters.
            Limnol. Oceanogr. 33 (4, part 2): 823-847.

            Pedulla, J. C. 1988: A method for the measurement of total organic nitrogen in precipitation.
            MS degree at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA.




                                                       511









               Ray, J. D., M. Luria, D. R. Hastie, S. Walle, W. C. Keene, and H. Sievering 1990: Losses
               and transport of odd nitrogen species (NOY) over the Western Atlantian, Submitted to Global
               Biogeochemical Cycles.

               Tyler, M. 1988: Contribution of Atmospheric Nitrate Deposition to Nitrate Loading in the
               Chesapeake Bay, Versar, Inc., ESM Operations 9200 Rumsy Road, Columbia, MD 21045-1934,
               29 pp.

               URI, 1989: A Plan for Research and Monitoring of Atmospheric Nitrogen and Toxic Pollutants
               in Coastal Waters. Unpublished Draft Plan prepared at a workshop held at the University of
               Rhode Island (URI), 43 pp.





































                                                          55






                                                NOAA Coastal Ocean Program
  

                                                        Estuarine
                                                     Habitat Program




                                                           EHP




                                          FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contract


               This plan represents an agreement between the lead line office Assistant Administrator and the
               Coastal Ocean Program Office concerning the management and review processes, scientific and
               operational procedures, products, and budget for implementing this portion of NOAA's Coastal Ocean
               Program in FY 1991.



               Ned A Ostenso, Assistant Administrator OAR                       Date



                                                                 
               William W. Fox, Jr., Assistant Administrator, NMFS                Date
                                                   


               Donald Scavia, Director, NOAA Coastal Ocean Program               Date



                                                            57
 








                               NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM
                                  ESTUARINE HABITAT PROGRAM
                                FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contract



            LBACKGROUND

            Estuaries and their associated coastal systems are extremely valuable components of the marine
            environment. Two-thirds of the Nation's commercial and recreational marine fisheries harvest
            is estuarine dependent. In fact, estuaries provide food, shelter, migratory pathways, and spawning
            grounds for over 70% of the commercial fisheries landed in the United States. These were worth
            $5.5 billion to the Gross National Product in 1986. In addition, recreational fishing generates
            annual expenditures of over $13.5 billion, while contributing significantly to the quality of life
            for 17 million anglers (Mager and Thayer 1986, NMFS Operational Guidance 1990).

            As human populations increase in the coastal region estuaries are placed under increasing
            pressure. They are fringed with cities and attendant industries, they serve as transportation
            corridors, recreational sites, and dumping grounds for society's waste products. Excess nutrients
            may alter estuarine food webs or lead to conditions that reduce oxygen levels in the water
            column. Toxic compounds, including halogenated- and petroleum -hydrocarbons, occur in fishes
            and sediments in concentrations warranting concern. Various pathologies in fishes and
            crustaceans have been linked with waters receiving agricultural drainage or effluent from heavily
            industrialized areas. Less dramatic but equally insidious are changes in the clarity and volume
            of water reaching estuarine habitats (Kenworthy et al. 1988, 1989 and references cited therein).
            Silt and particulates from dredging, upstream erosion, or eutrophication reduce the intensity of
            light reaching estuarine vegetation. The upstream withdrawal or addition of large quantities of
            water in association with domestic, industrial, and/or agricultural uses also may disrupt estuarine
            habitats and the organisms they support.

            'Me House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries recently issued a report entitled Coastal
            Waters in Jeopardy: Reversing the Decline and Protecting America's Coastal Resources. The
            report states:

                   Ile evidence of the decline in the environmental quality of our estuaries and
                   coastal waters is accumulating steadily. The toll of nearly four centuries of human
                   activity becomes more and more clear as our coastal productivity declines, as
                   habitats disappear, and as our monitoring systems reveal other problems... The
                   continuing damage to coastal resources from pollution, development, and natural
                   forces raises serious doubts about the ability of our estuaries, bays, and near
                   coastal waters to survive these stresses. If we fail to act and if current trends
                   continue unabated, what is now a serious, widespread collection of problems may
                   coalesce into a national crisis by early in the next century.

            It is the vegetated wetlands in estuaries (seagrasses, salt marshes and mangroves) that provide the
            refuge, food resources and nursery areas for a majority of commercially important, estuarine









               species (e.g., Peters et al. 1979, Boesch and Turner 1984, Ferguson et al. 1980, Kenworthy et al.
               1988, Short et al. 1989). However, more than half of the nation's original acreage of coastal
               wetlands has been lost, and the rate of loss appears to be increasing (Tiner 1984, Kean et al.
               1988). Thus, California has lost 87% of its original 3.5 million acres of coastal wetlands.
               Dramatic declines have also been observed in Florida and in the submerged seagrass; beds of
               Chesapeake Bay. In the southeastern United States, where estuarine-dependence of fisheries is
               greatest, the loss of coastal wetlands is most pronounced. Louisiana alone is losing 50-60 square
               miles of wetlands annually. Loss of coastal wetlands results in decreased yields of those species
               dependent on these habitats. Thus, the President has declared a "no-net-loss" policy for the
               Nation's wetlands.

               NOAA has resource management responsibilities for the nation's living marine resources
               throughout their range. Accordingly, NOAA is charged with ensuring the continued productivity
               of the habitats that support these commercially important species. This chapter of the Coastal
               Ocean Program FY91 Implementation Plan describes the Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP), an
               integrated effort to develop and disseminate the information necessary for effective management
               of these critical estuarine and coastal habitats.



               H. PROGRAM OBJECTIVES

               The ERP, initiated in FY90, focuses special attention on wetlands (seagrasses and salt marshes),
               and linkages among these and other habitats, because of their importance to the production of
               living marine resources. Federal and state habitat managers need more quantitative information
               on the functional mechanisms by which wetlands support living marine resources. Managers need
               to know the location, extent, and rate of loss or modification of existing wetlands. Finally,
               managers need to know how to restore and/or create these habitats more effectively. Information
               on which to base management decisions must be easily available in the form of "...accurate maps
               depicting where wetlands exist, [and]... information banks containing the results of research on
               the functioning of wetlands, and on restoration and creation efforts (Kean et al. 1988)."
               Accordingly, the three basic and interrelated objectives of the EHP are:

                      1 . To determine how coastal and estuarine habitats function to support living marine
                          resources. This includes research on factors causing habitat degradation and loss, as
                          well as on methods for habitat restoration.


                     2.   To determine the location and extent of critical habitats and the rate at which these
                          habitats are being changed or lost. This includes satellite, aerial photographic, and
                          surface level surveys to map habitat location and extent, and to determine change
                          through time.

                     3.   To synthesize the new and existing information in the form of mechanistic models of
                          habitat function of use to managers in protecting, conserving, and restoring critical
                          habitats.

               No other national effort within or outside of NOAA addresses these fundamental questions in a
               comprehensive and integrated program as described below. Recent advances in technology have




                                                             -5-1









            been made in data acquisition, analysis, display, storage and retrieval. This is an opportune time
            to integrate broad scale mapping and change analysis with mechanistic studies of cause and
            effect, essential for effective management.


            Ill. APPROACH

            The Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP) is designed to achieve its objectives through three
            interrelated avenues of investigation: A) research on estuarine habitat function and restoration;
            B) a program of coastal habitat change analysis; and Q a program of synthesis and model
            building to make this information available to managers.

            A. Estuarine Habitat Function and Restoration

            The EHP is documenting the role of habitats in supporting living marine resources and provide
            information to improve restoration procedures. Research teams are drawn from NOAA
            laboratories and academia. These teams are focussing expertise on trophic interactions, habitat
            dynamics and effects of habitat alteration. The program builds upon ongoing, successful research
            efforts, many of which have been supported under the National Sea Grant Program. It will take
            advantage of existing data bases or historical studies and capitalize on serendipitous environmen-
            tal "experiments" that result from natural events or human actions, including those detected
            remotely.

            Research initiated in FY90 and continued in FY91 focuses on three research efforts identified in
            FY89 workshops which included managers and research scientists:

                  1.   How do stresses impact the viability of seagrass habitats and what are the consequences
                       of loss of seagrass habitat for estuarine productivity?

                  2.   What are the effects of hydraulic manipulation on salt marsh viability and their
                       functional role in marine ecosystems?
                  3.   How can seagrass and salt marsh habitats be restored to assure they are functionally
                       equivalent to natural habitats and how can the process be accelerated and improved?


            In addition, in FY91 the EHP will hold at least one workshop including EHP Pls and experts on
            modeling. Ile workshop objectives are: 1) to evaluate present knowledge of habitat function and
            change analysis, including advances made as part of the EHP; 2) to identify the most promising
            approaches for synthesizing and modeling this information; and 3) to determine the direction of
            future research.


            A.I. Seagrass Habitat

            Seagrass systems are at the interface between man's development on the coast and the open ocean
            environment and are becoming increasingly stressed by man's activities in the coastal region
            (Ferguson et al. 1980, Zieman 1982, Tbayer et al. 1984, Zieman and Zieman 1989). Some of the
            fluctuations appear to be a recurring feature of seagrass meadows and are a consequence of the




                                                            W









                extreme environmental conditions the plants experience in shallow water. Others, however, have
                been identified as long-term, large-scale declines in response to deteriorating water quality.
                Recently, disease symptoms, similar to the historic wasting disease episode of the 1930's, have
                appeared in association with dramatic fluctuations in eelgrass populations located in northeastern
                estuaries (Short et al. 1987, 1988). Likewise, in Florida Bay, seagrass habitats have undergone
                an unprecedented decline (Everglades National Park Staff, Pers. Comm.). Utilizing these major
                declines as experimental sites will improve our ability to predict the consequences of seagrass
                habitat loss.

                A.1.a. Continuing projects

                The EHP is developing the capability to conserve and protect seagrass habitats through an
                understanding of the primary factors which control their distribution, abundance and productivity,
                e.g., water clarity (turbidity), nutrients, and the combined effects of both factors. Three-year
                projects initiated in FY 1990 to address ftinctioning and restoration of seagrass habitats are:


                Accelerating and Evaluating the Development of Restored and Created Sea Grass Beds.
                      Susan Bell - University of South Florida, Mark Fonseca - NMFS Beaufort, Charles
                      Peterson - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
                This project will develop a model of spatial heterogeneity of seagrass beds as a function of wave
                energy regime. It will evaluate settlement, survival, feeding, and predation of macroepifauna,
                suspension feeders, and meiofauna as indicators of habitat function in relation to energy regime
                and patch size. It will also determine the effect of energy regime on the functional development
                of transplants. Transplants using plugs placed in manufactured peat pots will be tested for
                improving transplanting. Fertilizer amendments will be tested on a split-plot basis. Effects of
                large bioturbators on transplants will be examined by using exclosures around the new transplants.
                Abundance and composition of fish will be compared between transplanted and natural meadows.
                Habitat creation research results should provide specific guidance in the use of planting
                technology to accelerate and obtain equivalent levels of secondary productivity in restored beds.


                Factors and Processes Controlling Eelgrass Habitat Persistence and Loss. Fred Short -
                      University of New Hampshire, David Porter - University of Georgia
                The objective is to understand the factors that lead to the alteration, degradation and loss of
                eelgrass habitat, including decreased water clarity, nutrient loading, and wasting disease (slime
                mold-like protozoan, Labyrinthula). The program will utilize field studies to determine
                mechanisms leading to disease-caused mortality, chemical analysis of plant resistance to disease,
                identification of resistant eelgrass populations, and a series of mesocosm experiments to look at
                the effect of eutrophication on seagrass survival. The goal is to acquire sufficient knowledge to
                predict how eelgrass habitat responds to adverse environmental conditions and to recommend
                management strategies to insure the survival and recovery of these habitats.









                                                               61









             Effect of Eutrophication on Seagrass Habitats of Coastal Lagoons. Scott Nixon - University
                   of Rhode Island, Sybil Seitzinger - Philadelphia Academy of Science
             This project is part of a larger investigation of the effects of various types and levels of nutrient
             enrichment (nitrate, ammonium, and/or phosphate) on the structure and functioning of eelgrass-
             based lagoon ecosystems. This particular project is concerned with determining the relation, if
             any, between level of nutrient enrichment and growth or dieback of eelgrass, Zostera, and the role
             of the interactions of fish, amphipod/isopod and seaweed assemblages in regulating the responses
             of eelgrass systems to nutrient enrichment. Long-term, replicated and controlled nutrient addition
             experiments will be conducted using ten lagoon eelgrass mesocosms at the University of Rhode
             Island. Densities and growth of eelgrass plants will be monitored at weekly intervals in
             mesocosms receiving different levels of nutrient enrichment. Grazer exclusion experiments will
             be used to investigate the effects of amphipod/isopod grazing on the biomass and production of
             the filamentous seaweed, Cladophora, mats which develop in the mesocosms in summer.
             lzboratory predation experiments will be used to estimate the rates of consumption of the
             dominant amphipods and isopods in the mesocosms by the three fish species in the mesocosms
             (mummichogs, Fundulus majalis; silversides, Menidia beryllina; and 3-spine sticklebacks,
             Gasterosteus aculeatus). Eutrophication has been identified as a threat to the extensive seagrass
             beds of shallow lagoon ecosystems along the eastern seaboard of the US. The present project will
             provide some of the most basic information necessary to empirically define these relations.

             The Role of Light Attenuation Processes and Plant Sediment Interaction in Determining
                   Seagrass Survival. Robert Orth -VIMS, 5 Co-P.I.'s from VIMS, University of Maryland
             The objective is to investigate aspects of light attenuation in a shallow lagoonal seagrass system
             and assess the role of plant-sediment interactions in determining the minimum light requirements
             for seagrass growth and survival. The hypothesis is that light attenuation in the water column
             and epiphytic cover affect oxygenation of the seagrass rhizosphere through regulation of
             photosynthetically produced lacunal oxygen. Oxygenation of the rhizosphere is necessary for
             maintaining aerobic root respiration and for the oxidation of potential toxic metabolites (e.g.,
             sulfides). Hence the minimum light requirement for seagrass growth and survival is controlled
             by seagrass-sediment interactions. This hypothesis will be tested by measuring seasonal patterns
             of light attenuation, factors affecting light attenuation processes, and seagrass production
             dynamics. Study sites are located in Chincoteague Bay, and Delaware and Virginia coastal
             lagoons. Data from these sites will be coupled with field and laboratory experiments testing the
             effects of light and sediment characteristics on growth, distribution, and abundance of seagrasses.
             A simulation model will of these interactions will be developed and validated by simulation using
             parameter values and data sets from other east coast estuarine and lagoon systems. The model
             is intended to facilitate development of proper management policies to insure survival of these
             important systems.

             Response of Fish and Shellfish to Changes in Composition and Heterogeneity of Habitats
                  in Western Florida Bay. Don Hoss; -NMFS Beaufort, Pete Sheridan - NMFS Galveston
             The seagrass communities of Florida Bay are undergoing a period of rapid change due to a die-
             off of turtle grass (Thalassia and invasion/colonization of some denuded areas by shoal grass
             (Halodule). This research will clarify ecological relationships between the different types of
             seagrass; habitats and their associated faunas. A variety of sampling gears (light traps, POP-nets,
             push-nets, trawls, drop samplers, gillnets) will be used to provide comprehensive measures of the
             structure of faunal communities associated with the different habitats. Field enclosures will be





                                                              @'L









                used in short term (3-6 hr) experiments to measure prey availability and predator selectivity.
                Enclosures will also be used in long-term (3-4 weeks) experiments to compare growth of
                selected organisms in the different habitats. Tethering experiments will be conducted to estimate
                relative value of different seagrasses in providing prey refuge from predation. Plant parameters
                (shoot density, coverage, average leaf length, and above-ground dry-weight biomass) will be
                measured concomitantly with each field effort to provide quantitative characterization of the plant
                community at sampling and experimental sites. The research will provide a basis for predicting
                the consequences of altered seagrass dynamics for fisheries production in subtropical seagrass
                systems.

                A.I.b. New projects

                The ERP received several proposals during FY90 that were approved by the outside review panel
                in April 1990, but were not funded due to insufficient funds. Two of these proposals that deal
                with seagrasses will be funded in FY91.

                Modeling Spectral Light Available to Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in Relation to Water
                      Quality and Epiphytic Growth. Charles Gallegos - Johns Hopkins University
                The objective is to quantify the relative contributions of suspended solids, phytoplankton,
                dissolved light-absorbing substances and epiphytic growth to shading of submerged aquatic
                vegetation beds. A recently developed model will be refined and extended to relate spectral light
                penetration to the concentrations of light absorbing and scattering materials, using data from study
                sites in the Patuxent and Chester rivers. In addition, the absorption spectrum of epiphytes and
                settled sediments on leaf surfaces will be measured. This information will facilitate efficient
                management actions to improve habitat for submerged aquatic vegetation (e.g., reduction of
                nutrients, control of sediment runoff or erosion) by identifying specific problem areas.

                Micropropagation and Aquaculture of Zostera matina and Spartina alterniflora. Kimon
                      Bird - University of North Carolina at Wilmington
                The objective is to apply plant genetics, selections, and biotechnology applications to developing
                superior strains of marine angiosperms for habitat restorations. 'Me project will also develop
                micropropagation protocols and aquaculture technologies for several species of marine
                angiosperins. Healthy, living plants will be obtained and grown as candidates (Zostera and
                Spartina). Meristernatic sources in different media supplemented with various combinations of
                plant growth regulators will be tested. Plants or shoots will be multiplied on a multiplication
                medium and transferred to a rooting medium. This will be followed by potting and nursery
                establishment. This research will provide the technology necessary for successful propagation
                and nursery production of two plants necessary for restoring marshes and seagrass meadows.

                A.2. Salt Marsh Habitat

                Hydrology is the dominant factor controlling the ecological structure, function, and productivity
                of salt marsh systems (Waltby 1986). Much of the human impact on salt marsh systems has been
                through some type of alteration to hydrology, e.g., dams, levees, dikes, dredge and fill, drainage,
                culverts, roadways, increased or decreased water flow. Salt marsh functional research focusses







                                                                @3









            on the mechanisms of hydrologic control of estuarine salt marsh productivity. Research is also
            being conducted to improve our ability to restore and construct salt marshes that are functionally
            equivalent to natural marshes.

            A.2.a. Continuing projects

            Three-year projects initiated in FY90 are:

            Accelerating the Development of Ecosystem Functions in Restored and Constructed
                  Wetlands. Steve Broome - North Carolina State University, Gordon Thayer - NMFS
                  Beaufort
            This project will evaluate the potential for accelerating functional development of constructed salt
            marsh by incorporating organic matter in the substrate prior to establishing vegetation. Functional
            development will be determined by comparing experimental plots with nearby natural marsh
            (above and below ground biomass, chemical and physical substrate properties, nitrogen fixation,
            denitrification, and infauna characteristics). Organic enrichment will be tested as an amendment
            to aid in salt marsh construction. A better understanding of functional equivalency and how to
            use the proper techniques will enable the attainment of the national policy of "no net loss" in
            wetland acreage and function.

            An Ecosystem Comparison of Transplanted and Native Salt Marshes: The Chronological
                  Development of Habitat for Fishery Species. Tom Minello - NMFS Galveston, James
                  Webb - Texas A&M
            The overall objective of this study is to evaluate functional development and equivalency of
            created salt marsh habitats compared with natural salt marshes in the Galveston Bay system. The
            approach will be to make univariate and multivariate comparisons of five natural and ten
            transplanted salt marshes (5, 5-7 years old; 5, 13-15 years old). Specific objectives will be to
            characterize each marsh by its overall morphology, hydroperiod, slope, elevation, amount of
            marsh/water edge, percent of open water, sediment organic content, sediment grain size, growth
            of Spartina alterniflora (plant height, density, and above and below ground biomass), benthic and
            epiphytic algae (chlorophyll a, taxonomic composition) and densities of meiofauna, macroinfauna,
            and natant macrofauna. Caging techniques will also be used to compare the marshes on the basis
            of benthic infaunal productivity, predation pressure on infauna, and growth of penaeid shrimp.
            These experiments will determine whether differences exist in the ability of the marshes to
            support secondary productivity.

            Accelerating Salt Marsh Functional Development Through Plant Genotype Selection:
                  Intraspecifle Diversity from Natural Populations and the Tissue Culture laboratory.
                  Dennise Seliskar - University of Delaware
            The objectives are to produce and select varieties from dissimilar genotypes of three salt marsh
            plant species, Spartina alterniflora, Spartina patens, and Distichlis spicata, which will drive the
            substrate, aerial detritus production, and decomposition in created wetlands toward functional
            equivalency with the natural marsh. Studies will take place in a one-half acre marsh which was
            created during the fall of 1989 at I-ewes, Delaware and planted with five different genotypes of
            S. alterniflora and four of S. patens. Five genotypes of D. spicata will be planted this spring
            (1990). The rates at which various salt marsh plant genotypes are able to accelerate the
            functional development of a created salt marsh will be ascertained by measuring soil










             development, detrital production potential, and the microbial community associated with the
             detritus. 'Mese processes in the created marsh will be compared with those in the adjacent natural
             marsh. Plant genotypes of a particular species differ in many respects which pertain to salt
             marsh functional development. Identifying these differences and selecting those genotypes which
             accelerate salt marsh development will lead to successful marsh creation and restoration.

             Influence of Inundation Regime on the Use of Gulf Coast Marshes by Fishes and
                   Macrocrustaceans. Lawrence Rozas - Louisiana State University
             The objective is to understand the factors causing alteration, degradation, and loss of salt marsh
             habitat through modification of hydroperiod, especially how hydroperiod alteration affects faunal
             utilization and secondary production of salt marshes. Specific objectives are: 1) to assess how
             depth of flooding and frequency and duration of flooding affect the use of salt marshes by nekton
             species; 2) to compare growth of fisheries species among marshes having different hydroperiods;
             and 3) to compare predator encounter rates and mortality rates of dominant species of nekton
             among marshes having various hydroperiods. Densities of nekton will be compared among three
             marshes having different inundation regimes by using flume nets to collect twice-monthly marsh-
             surface samples on each marsh for one year. Rates of growth for several species of nekton within
             enclosures will be compared among the three study marshes. Predator encounter rates will be
             estimated from tethering experiments conducted in each study marsh. Mortality rates of dominant
             species will be estimated for each marsh by comparing densities of cohorts over the two-week
             sampling intervals. An understanding of these relationships will be used to predict the effect of
             changes in hydroperiod on marsh utilization and production.

             Use of Sediment Fences for Marsh Restoration and Creation. John Day - Louisiana State
                   University
             The object is to investigate the factors influencing sediment deposition and erosion in shallow
             ponds and mudflats. Sediments are important to maintain marsh elevation and as a source of
             nutrients to support growth of wetland vegetation. Specific objectives are: 1) to monitor the
             effects of sediment fences on sediment deposition and erosion patterns in shallow coastal ponds
             and to determine the effect of sediment fences on vertical sediment accretion, elevation, and
             vegetation establishment; 2) to quantify the relationship between sediment deposition, sediment
             erosion, and the following factors: fetch, wind speed, soil strength, submerged vegetation,
             sediment exposure, and wave characteristics; and 3) to develop a mathematical model to describe
             sedimentation and erosion patterns in shallow coastal ponds and mudflats including the effects
             of wind speed, fetch, water depth, and wave parameters on sedimentation patterns. Ilere is a
             high rate of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana. Inadequate sediment delivery and accumulation
             in coastal wetlands is a major factor leading to this loss. Sediment fences represent a way to
             enhance sediment deposition and to reduce resuspension, thus leading to greater sediment
             accumulation.

             A.2.b. New projects

             The Bird proposal (described earlier with research on seagrasses) will also augment our
             knowledge of micropropagation of salt marsh grasses. One new proposal will be funded that
             deals with salt marsh ecology in California. It is a companion project to the Broome[nayer
             project in North Carolina and will provide the EHP with a geographic comparison. It was
             approved for funding by the outside review panel in April 1990, but was not funded at that time
             because of insufficient funds.









              Accelerating the Development of Ecosystem Functions in Restored and Constructed
                     Wetlands. Joy Zedler - San Diego State University
              In order to predict rates of ecosystem development and organic matter accumulation in
              constructed marshes, we will compare sites of different age and in individual sites through time.
              A two-year study (1987-89) has followed the development of a 5-ha wetland constructed in fall
              1984 and transplanted in Jan.-Mar. 1985. We propose to continue the comparison of the
              Connector Marsh (CM) with its adjacent natural wetland (Paradise Creek = PC) to examine rates
              of increase in organic matter, nutrient pools and vegetative canopy. Our second objective is to
              accelerate the development of salt marsh nutrient functions using experimental organic matter
              augmentation in the new 7 ha experimental Marisma de Nacion (MN). Different types of organic
              matter will be tested in order to develop the best methods of enhancing nutrient-supply and food-
              chain-support functions.

              B. Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis

              Quantifying changes in land use and vegetation cover (wetlands and adjacent uplands) in the
              coastal zone is critical in linking land-based human activities to the productivity of the coastal
              ocean. Habitat change in the coastal zone occurs faster and more pervasively than we previously
              have been able to monitor. The Wetlands Policy Forum notes that "...current survey efforts are
              too infrequent; only one national survey has been completed, and this is being updated only once
              a decade. Particularly in regions where wetlands are being lost rapidly, where they are under
              substantial threat, or where they are of unusual value, more frequent assessments ... preferably
              every one or two years ... are essential to an effective protection and management program ... (Kean
              et al. 1988)."

              NOAA is undertaking a program (using satellites and aerial photography) to develop the protocol
              and techniques to monitor vegetation cover and habitat change in the coastal region of the United
              States. This information, when coupled with other components of the Coastal Ocean Program
              (i.e., Habitat Function and Restoration, and Coastwatch) and fisheries data, will allow us to relate
              coastal habitat change to changes in fisheries production. For example, this mapping project is
              being coordinated with Coastwatch to develop the capability to monitor water turbidity via
              satellite sensors to identify areas of potential loss or re-establishment of seagrasses.

              Habitat maps are being produced from satellite imagery and aerial photography both for recent
              and past time periods (e.g., 1984 and 1989). These maps are classified by habitat type and
              compared for habitat changes between time periods, producing a habitat change analysis. Current
              efforts include the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in North Carolina and the emergent
              coastal wetlands and adjacent uplands of Chesapeake Bay. This approach is intended to build
              upon and complement ongoing research and mapping programs carried out by other Federal and
              state agencies including the USFWS National Wetland Inventory. The EHP will provide timely
              and synoptic habitat maps, including SAV, and maps of habitat change in the coastal region of
              the U.S. The monitoring cycle for change analysis will range from I to 5 years depending on
              region and availability of funds. Areas of most rapid change will be monitored annually while
              areas of less rapid change will be monitored on a less frequent basis (2-5 years).







                                                              @6









                The current program has three specific objectives:

                     1.   To demonstrate the feasibility of using satellite imagery and aerial photography to map
                          coastal habitats and to determine habitat change through time.


                     2.   To develop standard, nationally accepted protocols for mapping SAV, emergent coastal
                          wetlands and adjacent uplands. National acceptance of these protocols will allow
                          comparable data to be obtained regardless of which Federal or state agency or
                          university conducts the effort.

                     3.   To perform a literature search and review, and summarize the status of remote sensing
                          of biomass, productivity and functional health of coastal wetland habitats.

                The Chesapeake Bay prototype that was conducted in FY90 will be completed and an
                independent verification of the change analyses between 1984 and 1988/89 will be conducted in
                FY91. This verification will be jointly funded between the Coastal Ocean Program and the
                NOAA portion of the Chesapeake Bay Program. A meeting with several statistical experts,
                including a nationally recognized statistician, was held in Beaufort, NC, in September 1990, to
                scope out the experimental design of the verification.

                In FY91, regional projects concerning change analysis of emergent coastal wetlands and adjacent
                uplands will be conducted in selected areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the U.S. These
                projects will add to our geographical coverage and assist in the resolution of technical issues
                necessary for protocol development. They will include representative habitat types and will be
                distributed along the coastal region of the U.S. such that latitudinal, longitudinal and tidal
                differences (i.e., vegetation type, height, biomass, and degree of inundation) will be considered.
                At the present time cooperative efforts for regional projects are being discussed with the
                University of South Carolina, the University of Rhode Island, the states of Texas, North Carolina,
                and Florida, and the EPA's E-MAP Program. The number and scope of individual projects are
                now being finalized.

                The seagrass mapping and change analysis project will continue. Current emphasis is in North
                Carolina, but plans to expand the mapping effort to other regions are underway. This task uses
                aerial photography at scales of 1:12,000 to 1:24,000 and will produce photographic scale tracings
                and 1:36,000 scale hard copy maps to document location, area, and change of SAV habitat. The
                digital data base is obtained from 1:24,000 scale compilations of SAV habitat.

                All initial aerial photography of SAV for the area from Bogue Inlet, NC, to the Virginia border
                will be completed. The completion of photography of western Pamlico Sound, however, is
                contingent upon funding (proposal submitted) from EPA's National Estuary Program, Albemarle-
                Pamlico Project. This year a change analysis map will be completed for southern Core Sound
                (1985 to 1988). This map is the third in a series. The first, of southern Core Sound (1985) was
                printed in 1989. The second, northern Core Sound and southeastern Pamlico Sound (Drum Inlet
                to Ocracoke Inlet, 1988) is currently being produced.








            This project is being conducted cooperatively with the EPA Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary
            Program and all maps are being digitized and placed in the state of North Carolina GIS system.
            This effort is cooperative with the Photogrammetry Branch of NOS which is doing the aerial
            photography, providing accurate shoreline delineations and producing the hard copy maps. In
            addition, a cooperative effort with the EPA's E-MAP Program, USFWS and states to map SAV
            in the northern Gulf of Mexico is currently being negotiated. Ongoing mapping of SAV habitat
            in Chesapeake Bay (not funded by COP) will be merged in FY91 with the Chesapeake Bay
            Prototype (emergent coastal wetlands and adjacent uplands) begun in FY90. The combination
            of submerged and emergent wetlands and adjacent uplands is a unique feature of this program's
            data base.

            During calendar year 1991, the development of an operational protocol for mapping and change
            analysis will be completed for SAV, emergent wetlands and adjacent uplands. The first of four
            emergent wetland and adjacent upland protocol workshops was completed in May 1990 at the
            University of South Carolina and the second took place during the first week of January 1991 at
            the University of Rhode Island. The third emergent wetland protocol workshop is scheduled
            for the west coast (Seattle) in April 1991. The final emergent wetland workshop will be on the
            Great Lakes in July 1991. The SAV protocol development workshop took place in Tampa in July
            1990. Additionally, special meetings on statistical evaluation (September 1990), data management
            and dissemination (October 1990), use of NWI data base (December 1990 and February 1991)
            and habitat classification (February 1991) are being held to assist in the resolution of particular
            protocol issues. The integrated protocol for SAV, emergent wetlands and adjacent uplands will
            be available for operational use by December 1991.

            A literature search, review and summarization of the status of using remote sensing to determine
            biomass, productivity and functional health of coastal wetlands will occur during FY91. The
            review will include all remote sensing techniques which can provide answers to the following
            questions:

                       What proportion of mapped wetlands are in good condition? How many are in
                       relatively poor condition?

                       Are conditions improving or degrading over time? In what proportion of the wetland
                       resource are conditions continuing to decline and at what rate?

                       What are the most likely causes of poor or degrading condition? Which stresses seem
                       to be most important, affecting the greatest numbers (or area) of wetlands?

            C. Synthesis and Model Development

            The eventual goal of habitat research is to produce mechanistic models of habitat function. These
            models will enable managers:

                  1. To evaluate the functional health of existing wetlands.

                  2. To estimate the consequences for living marine resources of habitat change, such as
                       measured in the coastal habitat change analysis program.








                      3.  To predict the consequences of planned and unplanned environmental modifications.
                          These include changes in hydrology brought about by dredging and filling, or decreased
                          water quality brought about by eutrophication (as described in the section on Habitat
                          Function and Restoration).

                      4.  To determine the success of restoration projects, Le, whether they are functionally
                          equivalent to existing wetlands, and to predict rates of habitat development under
                          different construction approaches.

                Conceptual and mathematical ecosystem models will be developed for each habitat by the EHP.
                This is likely to involve separate formulations for each ecologically distinct region in the coastal
                zone of the U.S. For example, Fonseca (1989) has suggested 6 such regions for scagrass: 1)
                northeast coast, north of Chesapeake Bay; southeast temperate coast, Chesapeake Bay through
                Georgia; 3) Florida and Gulf Coast, north of 28*N latitude; 4) Florida and Caribbean, south of
                28*N latitude; 5) west coast, including Alaska; and 6) Hawaiian Islands and Pacific jurisdiction.

                The modeling effort will focus on the way habitats respond to environmental change and the
                effect of change on their ability to support living marine resources. Models will synthesize past
                information as well as that produced by the EHP. The modeling approach will be inclusive;
                functional health will be evaluated by the presence or absence of physical and biological
                characteristics typical of undisturbed habitats, rather than on the basis of a few commercially
                important species. A number syntheses are already available (e.g., Kusler and Kentula 1989) and
                several modeling efforts are being supported in FY90 and FY91. However, it is too early to
                predict the form and content of the mechanistic habitat models envisioned here.

                At least one workshop will be held during FY91, including EHP PIs and experts on modeling.
                The workshop objectives are: 1) to evaluate present knowledge of habitat function and change
                analysis, including advances made as part of the EHP; 2) to identify the most promising
                approaches for synthesizing and modeling this information; and 3) to determine the direction of
                future research.

                Ultimately, a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) will be developed for each
                ecologically distinct region of the U.S. combining: 1) the models of habitat function; 2)
                information derived from the habitat classification and change analysis; and 3) other spatial data
                (e.g., demographic, land use, pollution, distribution of commercially important species, fisheries
                yields, and economic activity). Thus, demographic patterns can be linked to wetland stability or
                loss on an area specific basis. Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat change (loss) can be
                related to changes in (loss of) fisheries productivity. Economic assessments can be made of
                alternative management strategies. Achievement of this task will require program planning,
                included in the proposed FY91 modeling workshop, and cooperative efforts of a multidisciplinary
                team within and outside of NOAA. Regional habitat and fisheries managers require this type of
                information synthesis and will be encouraged to participate in the planning for its generation.










            IV. PRODUCTS


            The EHP includes provisions for interpreting findings as they become available. Technical output
            from these research efforts includes presentations at meetings (e.g., the American Fisheries
            Society and the Estuarine Research Federation), symposia, workshops, reports to management
            agencies, guidance documents, synthesis documents (e.g., maps and models), and peer reviewed
            publications. The Sea Grant network will work with pertinent elements of NOAA (including
            NOAA libraries and state Coastal Zone Management Programs) to develop and distribute
            interpretive products for non-technical audiences.

            The EHP has already developed a wide and diverse complement of potential users and
            cooperators. These include both public and private sector individuals and organizations such as
            coastal and state Fishery Management Councils, U.S. Axmy Corps of Engineers, U.S.
            Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service,
            Minerals Management Service, NMFS Habitat Conservation Division, NOAA Sea Grant Advisory
            Services, and State Departments of Natural Resources, Departments of Environmental Regulation,
            and Departments of Transportation. Two generic products that will be or have been provided
            directly to these users are:

                      Information to assist NMFS Regional Offices in formulating their recommendations to
                      regulatory agencies on actions that may adversely affect habitats of living marine
                      resources.


                      Guideline documents (brochures) for Federal and state managers for the restoration and
                      construction of marsh and seagrass that are functionally equivalent to their naturally
                      occurring counterparts.

            More specific products from research on habitat function and restoration are:

                      Participation in the September 1990 NOAA Habitat Restoration Symposium and
                      contribution to the FY 1991 Symposium publication.

                      Publication of proceedings from a turbidity standards workshop, including an evaluation
                      of how well these standards protect seagrasses.

                      Conceptual and mathematical models relating seagrass growth and functional value to
                      eutrophication, growth of phytoplankton and epiphytic algae, turbidity, and sediment
                      type.

                      Conceptual and mathematical models relating salt marsh growth and functional value
                      to hydroperiod and sediment accretion.

                      Improved wetland restoration methodologies through selection of specific genotypes
                      and micropropagation technology, and augmentation of sediment with organic matter.







                                                            70









               More specific products from research on habitat mapping and change analysis are:

                         Completion of an operational protocol in December 1991, for determining habitat
                         classification and change in the coastal region of the U.S.

                         Habitat classification and change analysis maps for the Chesapeake Bay estuarine
                         drainage area (emergent wetlands and uplands, 1984 to 1988/1989) were completed in
                         FY90. Statistically verified maps will be produced in late FY91 or early FY92.

                         A change analysis map of SAV in North Carolina will be completed for southern Core
                         Sound (1985 to 1988).

                         A map of SAV in northern Core Sound and southeastern Pamlico Sound (Drum Inlet
                         to Ocracoke Inlet, 1988) is currently under production.

                         Completion of interagency agreements with EPA and states of Texas and Florida for
                         cooperative mapping and change analysis projects.

                         Report on assessing the health of emergent wetland habitats using remotely sensed data,
                         describing previous research, status of technology and knowledge, and future research
                         directions.

               More specific products from research on synthesis and model development are:

                         Reports from workshop(s) on program synthesis and modeling.

               V. DATA MANAGEMENT PLAN


               A. Habitat Function and Restoration

               Currently, research studies are being funded on the Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts. The
               principal investigator for each funded study is ultimately responsible for data management and
               development of the products required by the EHP. As noted under PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
               AND REVIEW, component projects will be reviewed for organization, operation and
               accomplishment. In addition, since proposals generally are funded for more than one year,
               funding for out-years will be dependent upon demonstrated progress and peer-revicw.

               B. Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis

               The digital data base will be archived and disseminated in standard exchange formats as either
               an optical disc or data tape. NOAA/NESDIS/NODC will distribute the data base on a cost-
               recoverable basis to outside users. We are investigating the feasibility of hardcopy map
               production by the NOAA/NOS on a cost-recoverable basis. For those participating in the
               program, both the digital data and preliminary habitat classified maps will be provided through
               the Manager by the group responsible for the processing of the imagery. Such copies will meet
               programmatic needs: quality control, integration and archiving of data, guidance, oversight, and
               planning.





                                                             71









            VI. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND REVIEW

            A. Program Management Committee

            Overall responsibility for the estuarine habitat studies component of the Coastal Ocean Program
            will rest in the hands of the Program Management Committee (PMC). The PMC will be charged
            with: 1) long-range planning of research, analytical, and outreach activities; 2) developing future
            implementation plans; 3) soliciting and selecting projects for funding; 4) broad oversight of
            funded efforts to assure appropriate progress; 4) periodic reviews of program performance; and
            5) effecting program revisions in response to changing factors such as available support, the
            success or failure of funded efforts, and the needs of NOAA and the larger Federal community.
            The PMC will report to the AA!s and will be the interface between the estuarine habitat studies
            component of the Coastal Ocean Program and the Coastal Council.

            The PMC is composed of six individuals as follows: 1) a senior OAR headquarters scientist; 2)
            a senior NESDIS headquarters scientist; 3) an OAR Sea Grant director; 3) a NMFS laboratory
            director; 4) a senior NMFS scientist; and 5) a representative from NMFS headquarters.
            Representatives will possess both strong technical and organizational backgrounds and will be
            expected to contribute actively to the formulation and conduct of the habitat studies program.

            The PMC will not oversee field or day-to-day operational activities. However, the PMC has
            selected a senior OAR headquarters scientist in the SAC as a Research Program Coordinator
            and a senior NMFS, scientist as the mapping progrom coordinator. These two individuals are
            coordinating the various research, mapping, and synthesis activities of the EHP.

            B. Scientific Advisory Committee

            Technical assistance and advice will be provided to the PMC by a Scientific Advisory Committee
            (SAC). In FY 1990, the SAC consisted of eight members: four each representing OAR and
            NMFS. A NMFS and an OAR senior scientist co-chaired the Committee. During FY 1991 this
            committee will be expanded to include representation for habitat mapping and change analysis.
            Like the members of the PMC, Advisory Committee appointees will possess both technical and
            organizational skills germane to the development of a high-quality, national program of study
            on estuarine habitats. The SAC will provide detailed information and technical assistance, as
            needed, to enable the PMC to carry out its duties with regard to program planning,
            implementation, and evaluation. This includes assembling short-term committees or ad hoc
            groups of experts to evaluate potential approaches to new areas of study and to assist in the
            review of research progress in funded EHP research areas.

            As noted earlier, two interrelated areas of investigation will be emphasized in FY 1991: research
            on the functioning and restoration of seagrasses and salt marshes, and assessment of the
            distribution, abundance, type and change in vegetated wetlands. Topical committees reflecting
            each of these areas and sub-elements, as necessary, will be established as proposals are selected
            and funded. A representative of each investigative team will be invited to participate in the
            appropriate topical committee. The topical committees are intended to promote interchange of
            information regarding findings, opportunities for collaboration, and common problems.





                                                            7.2









                The PMC will select a chairman for each topical committee. He or she will be added to the
                membership of the SAC. As the estuarine program matures, the number and type of topical
                committees will change, as will the size of the SAC. The link between topical committees and
                the SAC should facilitate feedback to the PMC on the progress, problems, and needs of on-
                going estuarine efforts.

                C. Ad Hoc Committees

                C.1. Proposal Review Panel

                T`wo review panels were convened in FY90 to rank research proposals on seagrasses and salt
                marshes. The panels were comprised of academic and Federal laboratory scientists external to
                the program as well as representatives from the user community. No proposal review panels are
                contemplated for FY91; the EHP has 8 projects awaiting funding which were approved by the
                review panels in FY90, but which remain unsupported due to insufficient funds.

                C.2. Program Review Panel

                As necessary, the PMC will appoint a panel to review the organization, operation, and
                accomplishments of the program and advise the PMC of any changes that seem desireable.
                Representatives of the user community will be invited to participate on this Panel.

                During FY 1991 PI's for the scagrass and salt marsh research projects will meet with the SAC and
                PMC to review progress and recommend areas of research direction and emphasis for FY 1992
                and beyond. This will include recommendations for phasing out as well as phasing in research
                activities. 17his meeting will probably coincide with the modeling workshop described in the
                section on Synthesis and Model Development.

                For Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis, an external review panel will be established during
                FY91 to review this program. The review panel will consist of representatives from appropriate
                Federal and state agencies and from academia. The user community will be represented on this
                panel. Additionally, reviews of both mapping components (SAV and emergent wetlands) took
                place in FY90 and FY91 through site visits and Federal/state/academia protocol workshops.

                D. Coordination and Interactions

                Research on habitat function and restoration in the EHP builds on a broad base of previous work,
                both inside and outside NOAA. Much of the existing data base on the amounts and types of
                critical habitats in estuarine systems and the fishery species they support, is a result of previous
                and ongoing research in the National Sea Grant Program and the National Marine Fisheries
                Service.

                NOAA's Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis effort under the EHP involves 4 of NOAA's Line
                Organizations: the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Office of Oceanic and
                Atmospheric Research (OAR), the National Ocean Service (NOS), and the National
                Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). Extant land use and habitat
                mapping data bases in other federal and state agencies will be used where feasible to minimize




                                                                73









            data acquisition cost, supplement ground truth, and assist in verification. Current federal land
            use/habitat mapping programs within the U.S. Departments of Interior, Agriculture, Defense, and
            Commerce, as well as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Aeronautics
            and Space Administration can provide valuable historical/collateral data for this program.
            Portions of habitat mapping programs, ongoing in many states, will be incorporated into the
            overall program where appropriate.








               VII. PROGRAM BUDGET' (K)
                                                                     90            91

               A.     Habitat Investigations

                           FY90 Starts                             1,030         1,180
                           FY91 Starts                                            120



                           Total                                   1,030          1,300

               B.     Habitat Mapping and
                      Change Analysis

                      1 .  Chesapeake Bay
                           prototype change
                           analysis                                 207           275

                      2.   SAV mapping &
                           change analysis                           142          165

                      3.   Development of
                           operational
                           protocol                                  61            95

                      4.   Site specific
                           projects to test
                           and refine protocol                                    235


                      5.   Program management
                           and interagency
                           coordination                                            75



                           Total                                    4104           845b


                      GRAND TOTAL                                  1,440          2,145


               aIncludes $80 K of Chesapeake Bay funds.

               Includes $45K of Chesapeake Bay funds.










                                              LITERATURE CITED


            Ferguson, R.L., G.W. Thayer and T.R. Rice. 1980. Marine primary producers, p. 9-69. In F.J.
                    Vernberg and W. Vemberg (eds.) Functional adaptations of marine organisms. Academic
                    Press, NY.

            Fonseca, M.S. 1989.       Regional analysis of the creation and restoration of seagrass systems.
                    p. 175-198 In J.A. Kusler and M.E. Kentula (eds.). Wetland creation and restoration:
                    the status of the science. United States Environmental Protection Agency 600/3-89/038a,
                    October 1989.

            Frayer, W.E., T.J. Monahan, D.C. Bowder and F.A. Graybill. 1983. Status and trends of
                    wetlands and deepwater habitats in the coterminous United States, 1950s to 1970s.
                    Colorado State Univ., Dept. Forest and Wood Sci., Ft. Collins, CO 32 p.

            Kean, T.H., C. Campbell, B. Gardner, and W.K. Reilly. 1988. Protecting America's Wetlands:
                    An Action Agenda. The Final Report of the National Wetlands Policy Forum. The
                    Conservation Foundation, Washington, D.C. 69 pp.

            Kenworthy, W.J., G.W. Thayer and M.S. Fonseca. 1988. The utilization of seagrass meadows
                    by fishery organisms, p. 548-560. In D.D. Hook et al. (eds.). The Ecology and
                    Management of Wetlands, Vol. 1. Timber Press, Oregon.

            Kenworthy, W.J., M.S. Fonseca and G.W. Thayer. 1989. Project status report and proposed
                    scope of work for FY90. Beaufort Laboratory Report to U.S. Fish Wildl. Service on light
                    attenuation in Hobe Sound, FL.

            Kusler, J.A. and M.E. Kentula. 1989. Welland creation and restoration: the status of the
                    science. United States Environmental Protection Agency 600/3-89/038a, October 1989.

            Mager, A. Jr. and G.W. Thayer. 1986. Quantification of National Marine Fisheries Service
                    habitat conservation efforts in the southeast region of the United States from 1981 through
                    1985. Mar. Fish. Rev. 48:1-8.

            Maltby, E. Waterlogged wealth. International Institute for environment and development.
                    London. 200 p.

            National Marine Fisheries Service. 1983. Habitat Conservation; Policy for National Marine
                    Fisheries Service (NMFS). Federal Register, vol. 48, (No. 228): 53141-53147.

            National Marine Fisheries Service. May 1990. Draft Habitat Conservation Policy Operational
                    Guidance. NOAA, NMFS, Office of Protected Resources, Silver Spring, MD 30 p.










              Peters, D.S., D.W. Ahrenholz and T.R. Rice. 1979. Harvest and value of wetland associated fish
                      and shellfish, p. 606-617. In P.E. Greeson, J.R. Clark and J.E. Clark (eds.). Wetland
                      functions and values: The state of our understanding. Amer. Assoc. Water Resour. Assoc.,
                      Minneapolis, Minnesota.

              Short, F.T., B.W. Ibelings, and C. den Hartog. 1988. Comparison of a current eelgrass disease
                      to the wasting disease of the 1930's. Aquat. Bot. 30: 295-301.

              Short, F.T., L.K. MuchIstein and D. Porter. 1987. Eelgrass wasting disease: Cause and recurrence
                      of a marine epidemic. Biol. Bull. 173:557-562.

              Short, F.T., J. Wolf, and G.E. Jones. 1989. Sustaining eelgrass to manage a healthy estuary.
                      Proc. Sixth Symp. Coast. Ocean Manag. p. 3689-3706.

              Tiner, R.W., Jr. 1984. Wetlands of the United States: Current status and recent trends. U.S.
                      Dept. Int., Fish. Wildl. Serv., Washington, D.C. 59 p.

              Thayer, G.W., W.J. Kenworthy, and M.S. Fonseca. 1984. The ecology of eelgrass meadows of
                      the Atlantic coast: A community profile.      U.S. Fish. Wildl. Serv. FWS/OBS-84/24.
                      147 p.

              Thayer, G.W., D.A. Wolfe and R.B. Williams. 1975. The impact of man on seagrass, systems.
                      Amer. Sci. 63:288-296.

              The Conservation Foundation. 1988. Protecting America's Wetlands: An Action Agenda. Final
                      Report of the National Wetlands Policy Forum. Washington, DC 69 pp.

              Zicman, J.C. 1982. The ecology of the seagrasses of south Florida: A community profile. U.S.
                      Fish Wildl. Serv. FWS/OBS-82/25. 185 p.

              Zieman, J.C. and R.T. Zieman. 1989. The ecology of the seagrass meadows of the west coast
                      of Florida: A community profile. U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv. FWS/OBS-85(7:25). 155 p.


















                                                             -77









                                                    NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM




                                                   Toxic Chemical Contaminants


                                                          
                                                       



                                                   




                                               FY91 Implementation Plan Contract




                        This plan represents an agreement between the NOAA Assistant Administrator
                        for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone Management, the NOAA Assistant
                        Administrator for Fisheries, and the Coastal Ocean Program Office Director
                        concerning the management and review processes, scientific and operational
                        procedures, products, and budget for implementing the Toxic Chemical
                        Contaminant component of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program in FY91.





                                                                                  
                               Virginia K. Tippie, Assistant Administrator, NOS        Date


                               William W. Fox, Assitant Administrator, NMFS            Date


                               --------------------------------------------------------------- -----------
                               Don Scavia, Director, NOAA Coastal Ocean Program                   Date
                                            




                                                         79









                    COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM







             IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR THE TOXIC
             CHEMICAL CONTAMINANTS THEME AREA
                                 .FY91


















                            SUBMITTED TO THE
                   NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM OFFICE
                             March 19, 1991 _









                                @o









                                    COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM


                    FY91 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR THE TOXIC CHEMICAL
                                   CONTAMINANTS THEME AREA



                BACKGROUND

                       The functioning of the advanced technological society of this
                country results in the release of major quantities of many different
                potentially toxic substances to the environment.      The waste waters
                and solid wastes from our industrial and municipal treatment
                facilities often contain appreciable quantities of toxic trace metals
                and/or organic chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).
                Our intensive agriculture spreads pesticides and herbicides across
                many millions of acres each year. The exhausts from our millions of
                automobiles discharge polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and
                other substances resulting from the incomplete combustion of
                gasoline engines. Our power plants release large amounts of sulfur
                and nitrogen gases and other pollutants to the atmosphere while
                burning coal and other fossil fuels for energy production.            Our
                domestic use of a wide     variety of chemicals leads to their disposal
                in garbage, sewage, and   other means and their ultimate escape to the
                environment.    All in all the usage, with concomitant      environmental
                dispersal, of potentially toxic chemicals provides one of the major
                underpinnings for the development of our society.

                       These toxic substances sometimes accumulate and become
                immobilized for. long periods in specific areas on the land. This is
                the intent with well-designed land fills and can also occur due to
                natural processes such as adsorption of certain chemicals on soil
                particles.  Much of the toxic material, however, rather quickly finds
                its way into our coastal and estuarine waters (including the Great
                Lakes), either by direct discharge or by way of additions as part of
                surface and ground water inputs or with atmospheric deposition.
                There is a great deal of evidence showing the presence of
                appreciable quantities of anthropogenic contaminants in certain U.S.
                estuarine and coastal areas, especially in the vicinity of major
                urban areas (e.g. McCain et al., 1989; National Oceanic and
                Atmospheric Administration, 1988, 1989; O'Connor et al., 1989;
                Robertson, 1989; Robertson and O'Connor, 1989; Varanasi et al.,
                1988, 1989a;









                    Much less is known concerning the ultimate fates of these
             contaminants and especially concerning the effects they are having
             on living resources and other organisms in the contaminated areas.
             Very low trace concentrations of toxics in coastal environments
             seem to cause no demonstrable harm. However, when the exposure
             of the organisms in the environment exceeds a certain level,
             undesirable biological effects start to occur.   These can take many
             forms ranging from directly obvious consequences such as fish kills
             to more subtle and difficult to detect, but nevertheless often
             serious, effects such as changes in feeding or predator avoidance
             behavior or in vital life processes such as respiration and
             reproduction.    Toxic contaminants can also accumulate in living
             marine resources at levels that pose a threat to human consumers of
             these resources.


                    There are now a number of documented cases where toxic
             contaminants have been found to have caused deleterious effects in
             coastal environments.     For example, there is a rapidly expanding
             body of evidence linking exposure to the myriad of chemical
             contaminants found in certain coastal urban bays and in rivers
             connected to the Great Lakes to high prevalences of hepatic lesions,
             including neoplasms, in bottom-dwelling fish.       Hepatic neoplasms
             have been reported in English sole (Parophry5__V&tU_ILM) residing in
             urban bays of Puget Sound, Atlantic tomcod (Microgadus tomcod)
             from the Hudson River Estuary, brown bullhead (Ictalurus nebulosus)
             in waterways associated with the Great Lakes, winter flounder
             (P@ f6udopleuronectes americanim) from Boston Harbor, and white
             croaker (Genyonemus li-n    -e-a-t-u-s-) in coastal waters adjacent to Los
             Angeles.      Other studies have identified pollution-associated
             reproductive impairment in marine fish species, including English
             sole and white croaker. These well-documented cases of effects of
             toxics are in general, however, relatively few. There are many more
             situations where toxics are known or suspected of being at
             appreciably elevated levels, but where adequate information is not
             available to determine what if any degradation has resulted in the
             exposed biological community.      The magnitude and extent of the
             threats to our coastal environments from toxic substances and the
             specific causes of these are not well understood.

                    Yet the resource managers and others who make the vital
             decisions on regulation and protection of our coastal environments
             need accurate and reliable information on toxics, their sources,
             their accumulation and fate in the environment, and their effects on



                                               ?0I









                populations and communities of exposed organisms.                       Such
                information is crucial to provide the basis for making well informed
                decisions on how to proceed with the development needed for our
                economic growth, while still protecting our coastal environments
                and the resources they provide so these are available for the benefit
                of future generations.

                       The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
                initiated a program in 1984, the National Status and Trends Program
                (NS&T), to help provide such information on a national scale.             The
                purpose of this program is to determine the current status of, and to
                detect changes that are occurring in, the environmental quality of
                our nation's estuarine and coastal waters.        The initial focus of the
                program is on toxic contaminants.

                     The NS&T Program is composed of three primary components. The
                first, Nationwide. Monitoring, measures the levels of toxic chemicals
                and certain associated effects in biota and sediments.           It provides
                data for making spatial and temporal comparisons of contaminant
                levels to determine which regions around our coasts are of greatest
                concern regarding existing or developing potential for environmental
                degradation.     It includes measurements of concentrations of 24
                polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs); 20 congeners of
                polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs); DDT, its breakdown products (DDD
                and DDE), and 9 other chlorinated pesticides; butyltins; and 13 trace
                elements in sediments, mussels, and oysters at about 250 regionally
                representative      sites   through     the    Mussel     Watch      Project.
                Additionally, determinations of the levels of the same chemicals in
                bottom-dwelling fish and associated sediments are made through
                the Benthic Surveillance Project at about 75 sites. The frequency of
                external and internal disease conditions is documented in the fish
                studied.   Data from all monitored sites are stored in NOAA national
                data bases and analyzed. These are made available to coastal and
                marine resource managers and the public in a variety of formats and
                reports.

                      The second component, Historical Trends Assessment, combines
                new NS&T data with pertinent historical data to provide
                assessments about priority environmental quality concerns.                  it
                primarily involves a closer examination of the environmental
                conditions in the regions that were indicated by the Nationwide
                Monitoring component as having the highest levels of specific
                contaminants and so the greatest potential for environmental



                                                    B








              quality pro  blems.      Available NS&T data are synthesized with
              literature   information     on    the   status    and    trends    of    toxic
              contaminants and their effects in these regions to assess the
              magnitude and extent of degradation to living resources and their
              habitats.    Detailed nationwide assessments are also conducted to
              evaluate the present understanding of the distribution and possible
              threat from these contaminants to U.S. coastal waters.

                     The third component, Biological Effects Surveys, consists of a
              series of intensive two- to three-year studies primarily conducted
              in those regions where the first and second components have
              indicated     a   potential    exists   for   substantial      environmental
              degradation.      These studies are designed to provide detailed
              assessments of the magnitude and extent of ecosystem degradation.
              Most of these     studies focus on living marine resources, especially
              bottom-dwelling fish.       Studies are carried on such aspects as
              reproductive impairment, genetic damage, sediment toxicity, and
              evaluation of new indicators of contamination, as well as on
              contaminant concentration gradients in the biota.

                     The NS&T Program is very closely coordinated with the Near
              Coastal component of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and
              Assessment Program (EMAP-NC). A joint NOAA-EPA agreement to
              determine       the  status,    trends,    and     ecological     effects     of
              anthropogenic stress in coastal and estuarine areas of the United
              States has been signed. This agreement provides a mechanism for
              co6rdination of NS&T and EMAP-NC planning activities leading to the
              establishment of an unified NOAA-EPA program for monitoring the
              status and trends of near coastal environmental quality and
              ecological conditions.       A joint committee to coordinate the two
              programs meets approximately monthly.                   A merged quality
              assurance/quality control project has been developed and future
              peer reviews of the two programs will be conducted jointly. Where
              the two programs are making the closely related measurements, i.e.
              contaminant concentrations in fish and sediments, care has been
              taken to assure the results can be merged by assuring that same
              contaminants are measured. The data from the two programs will be
              exchanged quickly and joint reports are being planned.

                   NOAA has also recently initiated a program, the Coastal Ocean
              Program, that includes a theme area dealing with toxic chemical
              contaminants and directed at developing the information needed by
              decision makers concerning these contaminants. This paper presents








              the FY91 implementation plan for the Toxic Chemical Contaminants
              Theme Area and for the integration of the activities in this theme
              area with those of the ongoing National Status and Trends Program.


              OBJECTIVES

                   To develop improved information for resource management
              decisions involving toxic contamination of our coastal environments,
              the Toxic Chemical Contaminants theme area of the Coastal Ocean
              Program has established the following long-term goals:

                    Assess the status and trends of environmental quality in
                  relation to levels and effects of toxic contamination in U.S.
                  marine, estuarine, and Great Lakes environments.

                  - Develop a predictive capability for effects of toxic
                  contamination on marine resources and human uses of these
                  resources.


                    The following more specific objectives have been established for
              the program to guide the development of a monitoring, research, and
              assessment   program that will make a major contribution toward
              achievement  of these goals:

                  Objective 1. Assess the. magnitude and extent of environmental
              deo@adation  in U.S. coastal waters related to toxics contamination.

                  Obiective 2. Develop new, or improve existing, methodologies for
              quantifying biological effects associated with exposures to
              environmental contaminants, resulting in the enlargement of the
              suite of bioindicators (e.g., measures of biochemical, immunological,
              physiological, and histopathological changes) that best assess
              contaminant-induced adverse biological effects in marine species.

                  Obiective 3. Establish the links between contaminant exposure
              and significant biological effects in individual organisms, with
              focus on effects with potential implications at the population and
              community levels.





                                                fs@'











            APPROACH


                 The work conducted in Toxic Chemical Contaminants theme area
            in FY91 will involve studies directed at these three objectives. The
            Coastal Ocean Program initiated studies directed at the first two
            objectives in FY90, and the activities in FY91 will be based on the
            continuation and expansion of these ongoing efforts with the
            addition of a series of studies directed toward the third objective.
            Three programmatic elements presented below describe the studies
            to implemented under these three objectives in FY91.

            Element A: Assess Environmental Degradation in U.S. Coastal Waters

                 The NS&T Program presently provides broad national and regional
            assessments of the levels of toxic contaminants and their effects
            around the shores of the United States. However, because of the
            spatial resolution and types of measurements that can be included in
            this large-scale national monitoring, the results can not be used to
            provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude and extent of our
            coastal areas that are experiencing appreciable ecological
            degradation from exposure to anthropogenic toxic materials. A
            series of systematic multi-year field surveys was initiated in FY90
            as part of the Coastal Ocean Program to provide such estimates by
            measuring selected biological indicator properties in all coastal
            areas where substantially elevated levels of toxics have been found
            by'fhe NS&T Program. The results will be used to provide estimates
            concerning magnitude and extent of degradation in each of the areas
            studied and will also be cumulated, when all areas  have been
            surveyed, to provide an overall national estimate.

                 These surveys have a   secondary but important purpose related to
            objective #2 above; that is to provide a means to   test promising new
            bioeffects indicators under operational field conditions.  As the
            bioeffects surveys in each  area involve several independent
            measures of contaminants    effects, the surveys provide an excellent
            and relatively inexpensive  opportunity to compare the performance
            of promising new indicators with the results from well-established
            measures to aid in establishing the value and interpretation of the
            results from the developmental tests.

                 The bioeffects surveys include tests to determine such
            properties as sediment toxicity to sensitive organisms, reproductive



                                             @69








               impairment and genetic damage in important fish species, indicators
               of contaminant-induced stress in sessile indigenous invertebrates,
               and evaluations of changes in bottom fauna and community structure
               related to levels of contamination. Teams of experts from both
               inside and outside of NOAA participate in these surveys with funding
               being provided to NMFS, academic, and private enterprise scientists
               to carry out the work. In the preliminary stages of each survey
               extensive discussions through phone calls and visits are conducted
               with the organizations that are conducting and/or coordinating
               monitoring and assessment programs related to marine and
               estuarine toxic contamination in the area.  Cooperative projects are
               developed and carried out wherever practicable. The primary
               criterion for selection of the survey areas is the level of
               contamination, with all areas with substantial indications of
               contamination by toxics ultimately included. The secondary
               criterion is the potential to carry out cooperative activities.

                    In FY91 surveys already initiated for the moderately
               contaminated Tampa Bay and the highly contaminated Hudson-
               Raritan Estuary and Boston Harbor will be continued. In addition a
               new survey will be initiated for contaminated coastal waters near
               Los Angeles in the California Bight. The bioeffects studies in these
               areas will include:


                  Tampa BsU--An initial study in this bay in FY90 provided
                  preliminary evidence of contaminant effects in the hardhead
                  4datfish. This study will be continued in FY91 and will provide
                  expanded information on the distribution in Tampa Bay of
                  target fishes (both the open-water hardhead catfish and a
                  shallow-water species) and blue crabs exhibiting evidence of
                  contaminant exposure, histopathological alterations, and early
                  biochemical effects. Two further studies will be added in
                  FY91. One will follow up on initial indications from other
                  investigators of contaminant effects in oysters by measuring a
                  number of indicators of oyster relative health at a series of
                  sites along a gradient of contamination in Tampa Bay. The
                  second will carry out a survey of sediment biotoxicity at a
                  number of sites in Tampa Bay.     It will particularly investigate
                  sediment toxicity in those part of Tampa Bay in which
                  previously measured concentrations of certain contaminants
                  have been found to exceed postulated effects thresholds for
                  animals exposed to sediments (Long and Morgan, 1990).     This
                  survey will use bioassays tests employing an echinoderm (sea



                                               0








                urchin), a crustacean (Ampelisca abj@,U), and a mollusc (oyster
                larvae).

                Hudson-Raritan Estuary -Work funded in FY90 in the Hudson-
                Raritan Estuary is measuring a number of bioindicators of
                reproductive impairment in winter flounder, acute sediment
                toxicity to several indicator organisms, contaminant trends in
                sediment cores, and ambient water toxicity of copper and zinc
                at various sites in this estuary.    These studies are still in
                progress and will be continued during FY91 with no further
                funding.   One additional study will be added in this estuary for
                FY91 to   investigate the occurrence of sublethal indications of
                sediment toxicity. This study will employ sediment bioassays
                of growth in a polychaete (Armandia) and an echinoderm
                (sanddollar). It is believed that these tests can provide
                indications of the long-term cumulative toxicity effects of
                sediments to supplement and augment the information on acute
                toxicity already being acquired.

                Boston Harbor -Bioeffects studies concerning sediment
                toxicity and reproductive impairment of fish (winter flounder)
                and molluscs (mussels) in Boston Harbor have already been
                carried out using NOS/OMA base funds. A study expanding the
                work commenced in FY90 concerning reproductive impairment
                in mussels will be conducted in FY91. This study will examine
                the relationship between bioconcentration levels of lipophilic;
                organic contaminants and measures of effects on reproductive
                processes in mussels from sites in Boston Harbor and Buzzards
                Bay

                Southern California--A new bioeffects survey will be initiated
                in Southern California coastal bays and estuaries in the
                vicinity of Los Angeles during FY91. This work will be
                coordinated with a new State of California program to develop
                and test assessment tools for marine and estuarine sediment
                quality. The California program will include surveys of
                sediment toxicity and contaminant distributions in sediments
                and measures of biological response to contaminants in bivalve
                molluscs (both indigenous and caged). Through participation in
                the planning for, and subsequent cooperation with, the
                California program, NOAA can greatly increase the expected
                value from our projected level of effort in this region.




                                                 P f/
                                                 00









                       Past work in the Southern California Bight has indicated a
                  variety of biological responses to contaminants, especially in
                  the vicinity of Palos Verdes and San Pedro Bay. Hepatic multi-
                  function oxydase (MFO) activities have been found to be
                  elevated in white croaker from these regions compared with
                  fish from Dana Point (Cross and Hose, 1987); also elevated
                  hepatic glutathione levels in sculpins and other species
                  relative to those found in Santa Monica Bay have been detected
                  (Brown et al.,1987). Female white croaker and kelp bass from
                  San Pedro Bay both have shown reduced rates of spawning in
                  response to gonadotropin injection, decreased fecundity, and
                  reduced fertilization success, compared to reference fish from
                  Dana Point (Cross and Hose, 1988, 1989; Hose et al., 1989).

                        It is proposed to further evaluate the spatial extent of
                  contaminant bioeffects in fish and to confirm the relationship
                  of any reproductive detriment to contaminants. One of more
                  species of territorial inshore species of fish will be collected
                  from selected coastal lagoons and bays at several locations
                  along the coast between San Diego and Los Angeles. Spawning
                  success will be correlated with other direct measures of
                  contaminant exposure and response, including fluorescent
                  aromatic compounds in bile, hepatic MFO activities and
                  glutathione levels, DNA adducts, and liver histopathologies.
                  Levels of organic contaminants will also be measured in the
                  ..livers and gonads of these fish.

                        The State of California is presently designing an extensive
                  survey of sediment toxicity and contaminants in coastal areas
                  statewide. The NOAA project on bioeffects in fish will select
                  sampling locations in the Southetn California Bight to coincide
                  with some of those in the broader state survey, in order to
                  take advantage of that extensive source of data.




               Element B: Develop New and Iml2rove Existing Methods fQ[
               Quantifying Bioeffects of Toxigs

                    At present, the NS&T monitoring program measures the
               concentrations of a relatively large number of contaminants in biota
               and sediments, but includes o,-,!y a few routine measurements of
               indicators of biological effects.   Further, the biological effects

                                               9"11-








            measured in the NS&T Program include some relatively severe
            effects, such as liver lesions in benthic fishes and   mortality of
            organisms (e.g., amphipods) exposed to sediments in acute bioassays.
            While these measurements have considerably enhanced our
            understanding of the potential impact of pollutants on aquatic
            ecosystems by linking the presence of certain contaminants to
            observed biological effects, these biological effects generally occur
            only in highly contaminated environments and hence cannot be used
            either to distinguish among organisms exposed to moderate, low and
            no contamination or to predict deterioration of environmental
            quality.

                  This lack of sensitive biological indices to assess environmental
            quality has led to considerable interest in gaining a better
            understanding of the underlying mechanisms that govern
            contaminant-induced alterations in marine organisms and evaluating
            a suite of indices that measure contaminant-induced alterations in
            marine organisms. These indices are defined as bioindicators and
            they include measurements of contaminant exposure and responses
            at the biochemical, physiological, and organismal level.
            Measurements of contaminants and their metabolites in tissues and
            fluids of organisms are also defined as bioindicators of exposure
            because biochemical and physiological processes within an organism
            influence both the level and distribution of these compounds.

                  Important factors supporting the use of bioindicators, as an
            effdctive means of improving aquatic environmental monitoring
            strategies are that (a) measurements can be made on indigenous
            organisms; (b) the concurrent use of several relatively inexpensive
            tests should provide a better assessment of stress from exposure to
            complex mixtures of xenobiotic compounds present in contaminated
            environments than measurement of a single indicator; and (c) with
            further knowledge, biochemical and physiological indices may serve
            as early-warning signals of population or community effects.
            However, prior to inclusion of any bioindicator in a large-scale
            monitoring program, it should be (a) shown to be linked to
            contaminant exposure; (b) tested in the laboratory to establish the
            range of sensitivity by conducting dose- and time-response studies;
            and (c) validated in small-scale field studies with one or two well-
            understood species.

                 Studies will be conducted under this element in FY91 in two
            major categories:   1.  To test the applicability of recently developed









              bioindicators in target fish species of NOAA's National Status and
              Trends Program. These bioindicators are: hepatic aryl hydrocarbon
              hydroxylase (AHH) activity, levels of DNA-xenobiotic adducts in
              liver, and levels of fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) in bile.
              2. To develop and evaluate new bioindicators of contaminant
              exposure and effects in fish species for incorporation in the
              assessment of environmental quality. The bioindicators to be
              investigated include indices of oxidative damage, altered
              immunocompetence, and altered heme metabolism. These studies are
              designed to expand the suite of bioindicators in fish available for use
              in biomonitoring programs such as the NS&T Program or EPA's
              Environmental Monitoring and Prediction Program (EMAP), with
              emphasis on identifying bioindicators that may be directly linked to
              serious biological effects. A research proposal describing the
              experimental design during the first three years of this project has
              been prepared and peer-reviewed by two outside academic reviewers
              and by reviewers' from inside NOAA. All reviewers gave the proposal
              high marks and several helpful suggestions were received and are
              being incorporated.

                   Briefly, three bioindicators have been recently developed for use
              in the Benthic Surveillance Project of the NS&T Program to assess
              contaminant exposure and effects in bottomfish. Levels of FACs in
              bile have been measured in every Cycle of the Benthic Surveillance
              Project thus far, and hepatic activities of AHH have been measured
              beginning in Cycle V (1988). The measurement of FACs is useful
              bethuse it provides an estimation of exposure to aromatic
              compounds, such as aromatic hydrocarbons, which usually cannot be
              measured directly in tissues because of extensive and rapid
              metabolism of these compounds by fish (Krahn et al., 1986; Varanasi
              et al., 1989b). Hepatic AHH activity is a sensitive indicator of
              exposure to a variety of chemical contaminants, including aromatic
              hydrocarbons, chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, and petroleum
              compounds, and represents a very early physiological response to
              such exposure (Payne et al., 1987). Additionally, during the
              metabolism of xenobiotic chemicals, such as polycyclic aromatic
              hydrocarbons (PAHs), reactive metabolites are formed that can
              covalently bind to the genetic material, DNA, to form DNA-xenobiotic
              adducts. Recently, a very sensitive technique (32P-postlabeling) has
              been developed (Gupta and Randerath, 1988) and shown to be able to
              detect DNA-xenobiotic adducts in feral fish (Dunn et al., 1987;
              Varanasi et al., 1989c; Stein et al., 1989). The measurement of these
              adducts provides an assessment of exposure to genotoxic compounds,









             and because this type of DNA damage can be linked to more severe
             biological effects, such measurements may be very important in
             establishing causal relationships between contaminant exposure and
             damage to living marine resources (Stein et al., 1989; Schiewe et al.,
             1990).

                  To date, results from the use of bioindicators in the Benthic
             Surveillance Project (FACs and AHH) have shown that these two
             indicators are generally responsive to contaminant exposure of
             target fish species, but there appear to be substantial species
             differences in the magnitude of the responses (Varanasi et al., 1988
             and 1989a; Collier et al., 1989). Each of these measures has been
             shown to be increased in one target species (English sole) after
             exposure to organic solvent extracts of a contaminated sediment, in
             a time- and dose-responsive manner (Collier and Varanasi, 1987), but
             the responses of other target species used in the NS&T Program have
             not been similarly tested.   Similarly, levels of DNA-xenobiotic
             adducts in English sole have been shown to increase after exposure to
             extracts of contaminated sediments (Varanasi et al., 1989c).
             However, time course and dose-response data are still needed for
             this species, and hepatic DNA adducts have not yet been examined in
             the other Benthic Surveillance target species. Only through the use
             of data obtained from detailed studies relating time- and dose-
             response to chemical contaminants can results from different
             species be usefully compared in the Benthic Surveillance Project.
             Accordingly, a major initial effort under this element will involve
             th6"' systematic validation and comparison of these recently
             developed bioindicators in fish species.

                   It is also desirable to increase our suite of available
             bioindicators for use in biomonitoring programs by developing
             bioindicators. that are more specific for certain types of biological
             effects than those currently in use, or which provide information
             about differing mechanisms through which biological damage may
             occur. Such effects include alterations in immunocompetence, early
             indications of cellular injury; changes in heme metabolism, which
             may lead to porphyria; or measures of oxidative damage from
             metabolic formation of reactive oxygen species.

                   The reason so few bioeffects measurements have been included
             to date in the Monitoring Program to assess environmental quality is
             largely that only a few measures have been clearly shown to be
             reliable indicators of the level of exposure or response of organisms



                                              V_









               to toxic contaminants. The work proposed in this element is aimed
               at identifying improved bioindicators of toxic contamination for
               implementation in large-scale biomonitoring programs.    The
               emphasis will be placed on developing additional indicators of
               subtle, adverse biological effects that result directly from
               contaminant exposure.   Moreover, the determination of multiple
               bioindicators of exposure and effects should provide better cause
               and effect linkages which will be invaluable in understanding the
               susceptibility or resistance of different species to contaminant-
               induced effects (Varanasi et al. 1991). Making exposure and effect
               measurements in the same organisms will enhance our ability to
               develop statistical models to assess if a certain level of
               contaminant exposure is predictive of a certain biological response
               or perturbation in the exposed population.


               Element C: Establish Links Between Contamingnt Exposure and
               Sianificant Biolggical Effects

                  NOAA's ongoing national environmental monitoring programs have
               found that urbanized and industrialized estuarine and coastal areas
               have high concentrations of contaminants in their sediments and in
               the tissues of the organisms which inhabit these affected regions. In
               some of the highly contaminated areas, resident species are showing
               signs of impaired health which appear to be caused by chronic
               exposure to contaminants. Studies have equated chemical
               corIfAminant exposure to growth inhibition, organ dysfunction, and
               reproductive impairment. And in some locations, contaminant levels
               are sufficiently high to cause mortality to primary prey organisms
               (copepods) (Sunda et al., 1990). Significant declines in estuarine
               populations are believed to be related to the combined effects of
               chemical pollution, habitat loss and degradation, harvesting
               practices, and other factors. The bioeffects research described here
               is aimed at understanding the role chemical pollution plays in this
               overall problem.

                   Bioeffects Research under Element C seeks to relate
               concentrations of toxic chemicals in the near coastal ocean
               environment to effects on marine organisms. A primary need is to
               gain a sufficient understanding of how contaminants affect key
               species at critical points in their development and their
               reproduction. Studies will be undertaken to develop an
               understanding of the processes that link chemical contaminants to



                                                73









             biological effects at the individual organism level.  Results from
             such studies should eventually enhance our ability to assess and
             predict the effects of a broad spectrum of chemical contaminants on
             populations of key marine species and their associated communitie    's.
             It will provide environmental managers with scientifically valid
             information for decision making.

                  Funding of research under this element will be initiated in FY91
             and will aimed at establishing linkages between contaminant
             exposure and significant biological effects in individuals.  Even
             though the ultimate goal of contaminant research is to demonstrate
             effects at the population or ecosystem level, it is first necessary to
             establish the mechanisms and sequences of events required to
             produce demonstrable effects in individuals.    Therefore, the primary
             effort within this element will be to establish relationships between
             the environment, contaminant exposure, and biological processes in
             marine biota. Research should be concentrated on measuring effects
             in individuals that appear most likely to have implications at the
             population level, namely, studying parameters that affect survival,
             growth, and reproduction.

                  For FY1991, funding will be limited to species and locales for
             which there is already ample documented evidence of biological
             effects occurring (i.e., lesions, disease, DNA damage, reproductive
             impairment, abnormal behavior) and for which there is a reasonable
             suspicion (but not necessarily a firm link) that the observed effects
             ardt'related to contaminant exposure. For these species, some field
             and/or laboratory studies should have already been done which
             correlate pollutants to specific biological effects.

                  Three parameters that are measurable at the individual level
             which seem most likely to cause widespread, deleterious population
             effects are decreases in: growth, fecundity, and survival.
             Accordingly, the program element will be structured as a series of
             research studies that are designed to flesh out the conceptual model
             given below.











               CONTAMINANT EXPOSURE
                      Bioindicators of exposure

                               EARLY WARNING RESPONSES
                                        - Bioindicators of stress


                                                BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
                                                          impaired growth
                                                          impaired fecundity
                                                         decreased survival


                    Successful measurement of processes and and parameters that
               establish links between contaminant exposure and the above three
               biological endpoints, either directly or indirectly by studying for
               effects such as diseases, reproductive dysfunction,disease
               resistance etc, will drive the design of research projects. This
               element will strive to embrace studies on a variety of vertebrate and
               invertebrate species at different stages of their development and
               from a variety of geographic locations. It is critical to understand
               the processes that control these endpoints at the level of the
               individual before we can even begin to evaluate the impacts of
               altered survival, fecundity, or growth in the context of populations
               or ecosystems.

                 . As discussed below, a variety of studies could be conducted under
               th6#1.overall structure of this element. However,limited funding in
               FY1991 for this element will allow initiation of only a few of these
               studies:
                      perform environmentally relevant dose/response
                         experiments to establish the cause-and-effect
                         relationship between contaminants and biological effects.
                      determine the long term effects, if any, of a brief pulse of
                        contaminant exposure on migratory species(e.g., salmon)
                       during an early life stage.
                      determine the varying sensitivities to exposure of an
                        organism at different stages in its life cycle, with an
                       emphasis on early life stages.
                   --determine which parts of the reproductive process may be
                       impaired due to contaminant exposure (i.e., gonadal
                        maturation, hormonal regulation, fecundity, spawning, and
                        egg/larvae survival) to develop an understanding of the
                        physiological or molecular mechanisms by which it occurs.









                       determine cause and effect relationships between
                        reproductive impairment and the uptake
                       (bioaccumulation)
                       and fate (bioconversion) of toxic contaminants.
                      determine how the timing, duration, and sequencing of
                        reproductive events are impaired by contaminant
                         exposure for selected commercially and recreationally
                        important estuarine fish.
                        determine the hatchability, viability, and survivability
                         of offspring from contaminated sites as related to the
                        body burden of contaminants in the tissues of spawners.
                       assess effects on subsequent generations (filial effects)
                    -in situ environmental chamber studies to determine
                         factors affecting growth and survival of the early life
                        stages of key species (to link laboratory and field
                       research).

                 The research conducted under this element will produce an
            information base that could be used to identify and predict
            significant toxic chemical contamination problems in coastal
            environments. While there are at present no established cases where
            fish population variations can be clearly attributed to contaminant
            inputs, it is believed that such declines could be occurring. One way
            to test for population-level effects is through checking within a
            single species for large alterations in individual members' growth,
            fec.undity, and survival. These endpoints may serve as measurable
            indibes of that species' overall well-being within the affected
            habitat. It is hoped that eventually these studies will begin to
            address this important issue of populations effects in at least a few
            resource species. By understanding these linkages one can begin to
            identify and restore areas showing substantial degradation by
            contaminants. One may also be able to identify high risk areas
            showing early warning signs of effects which therefore should
            receive rapid attention to mitigate further damage.

                Well conceived and executed research under this element C,
            combined with data generated from elements A & B should assist in
            the development of alternative management schemes to reduce
            pollution and to make recommendations for restoration efforts.











                PRODUCTS


                   Element A--The bioeffects surveys are composed of a number of
                separate studies documenting various aspects of the magnitude and
                extent of contaminant bioeffects in each of the areas of concern. A
                number of reports and articles describing the results of these
                individual studies will be published, primarily in peer-review
                journals. At the completion of the survey in an area of concern, a
                NOAA Technical Memorandum report will be published focusing on
                that area and summarizing the results and conclusions from the
                studies conducted there and assessing our knowledge concerning
                magnitude and extend of the biological effects due to toxic
                contaminants. These summary reports will undergo thorough peer
                review by reviewers from both inside and external to NOAA.
                Synthesis reports assessing the national extent of environmental
                degradation due   to toxics will be published when all or almost of the
                primary regions of concern have been surveyed.

                   Element B._-The bioindicator research will.result in the
                development and evaluation of new and improved bioindicators for
                assessing contaminant exposure and associated effects on individual
                organisms and on populations of living marine resources in U.S.
                waters.   Peer-reviewed NOAA reports and scientific articles in peer-
                review journals documenting the development of these indicators,
                specifying how they should be measured, and evaluating their utility
                wiW"be produced.

                   Element C--The research on the links between exposure and
                effects will be conducted as a number of separate research projects,
                and these will lead to the publication of peer-reviewed scientific
                articles and reports.   Periodically the participants in the activities
                of the Toxics Chemical Contaminants Theme will cooperate to
                develop summary reports on the status of the research and
                assessment being conducted in this theme area and to recommend
                priorities for the future directions of work.



                DATA MANAGEMENT


                   Element A--The intensive bioeffects surveys will collect data on
                fish and invertebrate reproductive properties, prevalence of DNA
                adducts, acute and sublethal sediment toxicity, biochemical



                                                   P








             indicators of stress, and other biological properties as well as on
             bioaccumulation and sediment levels of chemical contaminants. The
             principal investigator for each one of the studies conducted as part
             of these surveys will be the primary contact for these data. The data
             will be available within two years of the completion of the field
             work and will be maintained by the principal investigator. The data
             will also be included in the final reports from the studies.   After
             submission of these final reports, NOS/OAD will maintain copies and
             will make copies available on request.

                 Element 13@-The data collected from the studies to develop new
             and improve existing bioindicators will be primarily laboratory
             results measuring such properties as the levels of hepatic aryl
             hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity, DNA-xenobiotic adducts in livers,
             and fluorescent aromatic compounds in bile from winter flounder,
             Atlantic croaker, and white croaker.    The principal investigator
             (Environmental Conservation Division, NWFC) for this study will be
             the primary contact for these data. These data will be available
             within one year of the completion of the dose-effect laboratory
             studies and will be maintained by the principal investigator. The
             data will be included in the reports from this work and copies of
             these reports will be available on request from the principal
             investigator.

                 Element a_-The data collected in the research to establish links
             between exposure and effects will be defined in the proposals for
             wdfk in this area. Funded principal investigators will be required to
             submit their data in a final report within one years of completion of
             their studies and copies of these final reports will be available from
             the Program Office in NOMAD.

                  Data management in all the studies outlined in this plan will be
             handled as an integral part of the studies and will not be funded
             separately. The number of data points gathered by any one study will
             be relatively few and will measure a number of properties; further
             the properties measured will be differ among the studies. Thus, it is
             more efficient to integrate data management into the individual
             studies rather than to have it handled as a separate component
             across the theme area.











              PROGRAM MANAGEMENT

                   The final management responsibility for planning and carrying
              out the Toxic Chemical Contaminants Theme program is with both
              the Assistant Administrator for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone
              Management and the Assistant Administrator for Fisheries. To carry
              out these responsibilities, the management structure in the
              following diagram has been established.


                                       MANAGEMENT
                                         COMMITTEE


                TECHNICAL ADVISORY                    TOXIC CONTAMINANTS
                      COMMITTEE                            THEME TEAM









                      MANAGER                               MANAGER

                 1310EFFECTS SURVEYS                 BIOEFFECTS RESEARCH



                 The composition and responsibilities of the components in this
              structure are:


                 Management Committee--This three-person committee is
              composed of the cochairs of the Theme Team, one from NMFS and one
              from NOS, plus a representative from the scientific community
              external to NOAA who is an expert in the area of contamination of
              the marine environment by toxic chemicals. This non-NOAA member
              is selected by the Theme Cochairs in consultation with the Director
              of the Coastal Ocean Program Office. The Management Committee is
              responsible for overall management of the Toxic Chemical
              Contaminants Program including: (1) setting and revising guidelines
              for the general direction of the Program, (2) developing and



                                              qq








             submitting to the Coastal Ocean Program Office the long-term and
             the annual implementation plans for the work in this Program, (3)
             obtaining scientific review of studies proposed in the Program, (4)
             making decisions concerning funding for the studies conducted by
             the Program, (5) providing broad oversight of the funded studies to
             assure satisfactory progress, and (6) carrying out periodic reviews
             of overall program progress. The Management Committee reports to
             the Assistant Administrator for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone
             Management, the Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, and to
             NOAA's Coastal Council, and is the interface between the Toxic
             Chemical Contaminants Theme of the Coastal Ocean Program and the
             Council.


                Toxic Chemical Contaminants Tbeme Team--This team is
             composed of NOAA scientists and scientific managers who are
             actively involved in programs related to toxic chemical
             contaminants. They are selected by and represent their NOAA line
             offices on the team. The primary function of the team is to provide
             advice and guidance to the Management Committee. It assists in the
             long-term planning for the program and in providing
             recommendations on the specific types of studies that should be
             conducted. The team members provide input to the Program
             regarding the interests of their Line Office and its scientists in
             participating in the Toxics Program and also provide information
             about the Program to interested persons within their offices.

                Technical Advisory Committee -This committee is composed of
             five scientists/scientific managers from outside of NOAA who are
                                                    @0_x ic - ---
             experts in the area of contamination by      chemicals in the
             marine environment. It is chaired by the non-NOAA member of the
             Management Committee, and its members are selected by this
             committee in consultation with the Director of the Coastal Ocean
             Program Office. This Technical Advisory Committee reviews, and
             provides advice on how to improve,, the overall scientific quality of
             the Program. More specifically it also reviews and evaluates all in-
             house NOAA studies both as these are being proposed for inclusion in
             the Program and as they are being conducted. It provides its
             evaluations and recommendations on these studies to the
             Management Team, and the Team will not approve funding for studies
             judged to be of poor scientific quality by the Technical Advisory
             Committee.









                  Bioeffects Surveys and Bioeffects Research Proiects--The Toxic
               Chemical Contaminants Program is subdivided into two major
               projects that are managed separately. One project is responsible for
               the Bioeffects Survey component of the Program (Element A), while
               the second is responsible for the Bioeffects Research component,
               which includes the studies concerned with developing new and
               improved indicators of biological effects (Element B) and those
               directed at obtaining the linkage between exposure and these effects
               (Element C). Both projects are directed by a project manager
               selected by the Management Committee. Projects may be redefined,
               added, or subtracted in future years as deemed appropriate by the
               Management Committee in consultation with the Theme Team and the
               Coastal Ocean Program Office. Funds allocated for each of the
               projects are to be distributed to appropriate Project Manager's Line
               Office for disbursement. The Project Managers for the Bioeffects
               Survey and Bioeffects Research Projects are presently the NOS and
               NMFS cochairs of the Management Committee, respectively. The
               project managers have responsibility for the detailed management
               of their projects. They develop guidelines and specifications for the
               studies to be conducted in their project, obtain proposal for carrying
               out these studies, and provide recommendations to the Management
               Team as to which proposals to fund and the levels of funding
               required. They assure peer-review of all proposed research studies,
               including at least two reviews from outside of NOAA for each
               proposal. They provide support to the Technical Advisory Committee
               in Jts assessment of the scientific quality of all studies conducted
               in-Nouse by NOAA. They oversee evaluation and review of the
               studies in their project and provide assessment to the Management
               Team and Coastal Council on these matters as appropriate.

                    The procedures used to plan and implement the studies in the
               each of the three elements are as follows: Element A-(Bioeffects
               Surveys): The first step in planning a survey is to develop a report
               summarizing and synthesizing the existing information on
               occurrence and distribution of toxic contaminants and associated
               biological effects in the specific survey area. A survey proposed to
               be conducted in that area is then planned based on this summary and
               in close consultation with scientists and resource managers who
               have experience in the specific geographical area. The plan for each
               area is sent to scientific and resource management experts in the
               geographical area under consideration for their review and is
               revised based on this review. At least once a year, the Technical
               Review Committee reviews the overall scientific competence and


                                               A@ /








             relevancy of the studies carried out in this element. Element B
             (Bioeffects Indicator Development): To take advantage of NOAA's
             extensive experience and interest in development of bioindicators,
             the studies in this element are carried out by scientists from within
             NOAA, although subcontracting to other organizations is encouraged
             as appropriate.  All proposed studies are reviewed both through
             peer-review (at least two outside NOAA reviewers) and by the
             Technical Review Committee. Element C (Bioeffects Research): The
             research studies concerning the linkage between contaminant
             exposure and bioeffects (Element Q is carried out through a
             competitive proposal procedure.  An RFP detailing the scientific area
             of interest and the criteria by which proposals will be judged is
             developed and distributed.  The proposals received are peer-
             reviewed (at least two outside NOAA reviewers) and the
             Management Team makes the final selections based on the peer-
             review and the recommendations of the Project Manager.



             REVIEW


                 Proposals for research studies to be conducted in this theme area
             are peer-reviewed, including at least two reviews from outside
             NOAA. The peer reviewers are asked to evaluate the proposals for
             intrinsic technical merit relative to the following concerns:   (1)
             applicability of the proposed study toward meeting the theme and
             p rqj, ect objectives, (2) use of the best available data and
             inf6rmation for planning and conducting the study, (3)
             appropriateness and scientific validity of proposed research design
             and testing methodologies, and (4) background, experience, and
             scientific competence of the proposed investigators to carry out the
             proposed study. For the parts of the Program where substantial
             numbers of proposals are expected a Proposal Review Panel is
             established comprised of distinguished scientists external to the
             Program. These panels evaluate the scientific merit of the proposed
             research and advise the Project Manager and the Management
             Committee on the merits of and modifications recommended for the
             submitted proposals. In FY91 it is the intent to establish such a
             panel for the proposals received to carry out studies under Element
             C. The Project Managers will make recommendations on funding
             decisions in their respective projects to the Management Committee
             based on the results of these reviews and on the cost effectiveness
             of the proposed studies. Proposals with cost sharing, matching









                funds, or other mechanisms to increase cost effectiveness in the use
                of the Coastal Ocean Program funds will be especially encouraged.

                     In addition to the peer review of proposals, the program in this
                theme area will be reviewed periodically by a panel of outside experts
                to evaluate the scientific competence and relevance of the work being
                conducted. These reviews will be held approximately biennially and
                will be organized by the Management Team in conjunction with the
                Technical Advisory Committee.



                LITERATURE CITED


                Arkoosh, M. R. and S. L. Kaaftari. 1990. Quantification of fish
                antibody to a specific antigen by an enzyme linked immunosorbent
                assay (ELISA). in Techniques in Fish Immunology (J. Stolen, T. C.
                Fletcher, B. S. Robertson, and W. B. van Muiswinkel, eds.). S.O.S.
                Publications, New Jersey. (in press)

                Casillas, E. and W. E. Ames. 1986. Hepatotoxic effects of C14 on
                English sole (Parol2hrys y&Jv-1uW: Possible indicators of liver
                dysfunction. J. Fish Biol. 84C: 397-400.

                Collier, T. K. and U. Varanasi 1987. Biochemical indicators of
                contaminant exposure in flatfish from Puget Sound, WA, pp. 1544-
                1549. In: Proceedings Oceans '87; Marine Technology Society and
                Oce"a'nic Engineering Society, IEEE.

                Collier, T.K., B-T. L. Eberhart, J. E. Stein and U. Varanasi. 1989.   Aryl
                hydrocarbon hydroxylase-a 'new' monitoring tool in the Status &
                Trends Program, pp. 608-610. In: Proceedings Oceans '89; Marine
                Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

                Cross, J. N. and J. E. Hose. 1988. Evidence for impaired reproduction
                in white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus) from contaminated areas off
                Southern California. Mar. Environ. Res. 24: 185-188

                Cross, J. N. and J. E. Hose. 1989. Reproductive impairment in two
                species of fish from contaminated areas off Southern California,
                382-384. In: Proceedings Ocean '89. Volume 2: Ocean Pollution.
                Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.




                                                  ILI) 3







            Dunn, B. P., J. J. Black and A. Maccubbin. 1987. 32P-postlabeling
            analysis of aromatic DNA adducts in fish from polluted areas.
            Cancer Res. 47: 6543-6548.

            Gupta, R. C. and K. Randerath 1988. Analysis of DNA adducts by 32p-
            labeling and thin layer chromatography, pp. 399-418. In: DNA
            Repair, Vol. 3 (Friedberg, E. C. and P. C. Hanawalt, eds.). Marcel
            Dekker, Inc., New York.

            Hose, J. E., J. N. Cross, S. G. Smith, and D. Diehl. 1989*. Reproductive
            impairment in a fish inhabiting a contaminated coastal environment
            off Southern California. Environ. Poll. 59.


            Krahn, M. M., L. D. Rhodes, M. S. Myers, L. K. Moore, W. D. MacLeod, Jr.,
            and D. C. Malins. 1986. Associations between metabolites of
            aromatic compounds in bile and the occurrence of hepatic lesions in
            English sole (ParoQhyryayg1u1u) from Puget Sound. Arch. Environ.
            Contam. Toxicol. 15: 61-67.

            Long, E. R. and L. G. Morgan. 1990. The potential for biological
            effects of sediment-sorbed contaminants tested in the National
            Status and Trends Program. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
            Administration, National Ocean Service, Seattle, WA. NOAA Tech.
            Memo. NOS OMA 52,175 pp. + Appendices A-G.

            McCain, B. B., S.-L. Chan, M. M. Krahn, D. W. Brown, M. S. Myers, J. T.
            La'ndahl, S. Pierce, R. C. Clark, Jr., and U. Varanasi. 1989. Results of
            the National Benthic Surveillance Project (Pacific Coast): 1987, pp.
            590-596. In: Proceedings Ocean '89. Volume 2: Ocean Pollution.
            Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

            National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1988. National
            Status and Trends Program for Marine Environmental Quality:
            Progress report--A summary of selected data on chemical
            contaminants in sediments collected during 1984, 1985, 1986, and
            1987. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
            Ocean Service, Rockville, MD. NOAA Tech. Memo. NOS OMA 44,15 pp.,
            + Appendices A-D.

            National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1989. National
            Status and Trends Program for Marine Environmental Quality:
            Progress report--A summary of data on tissue contamination from



                                           MLI








                the first three years (1986- 1988) of the Mussel Watch Project.
                National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean
                Service, Rockville, MD. NOAA Tech. Memo. NOS OMA 49, 22 pp., +
                Appendices A-C.

                O'Connor, T. P., J. E. Price, and C. A. Parker. 1989. Results from
                NOAA's National Status and Trends Program on distributions,
                effects, and trends of chemical contamination in the coastal and
                estuarine United States, pp. 569- 572. In: Ocean '89. Volume 2:
                Ocean Pollution. Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering
                Society, IEEE.

                Payne, J. F., L. L. Fancey, A. D. Rahimtula, and E. L. Porter. 1987.
                Review and perspective on the use of mixed-function oxygenase
                enzymes in biological monitoring. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. 86C: 233-
                245.

                Robertson, A. 1989. National Status and Trends Program: A national
                overview of toxic organic compounds in sediments, pp. 573-578. In:
                Ocean '89. Volume 2: Ocean Pollution. Marine Technology Society
                and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

                Robertson, A. and T. P. O'Connor. 1989. National Status and Trends
                Program for Marine Environmental Ouality: Aspects dealing with
                contamination in sediments, pp. 47-62. In: Contaminated Marine
                Se ,diments--Assessment and Rernediation. National Academy Press,
                WA@fiington, DC. 493 pp.

                Schiewe, M. H., D. D. Weber, M. S. Myers, F. J. Jacques, W. L. Reichert,
                C. A. Krone, D. C. Malins, B. B. McCain, S-L. Chan, and U. Varanasi.
                1991.   Induction of foci of cellular alteration and other hepatic
                lesions in English sole (Parophtys yetulus) exposed to an extract of
                an urban marine sediment. Canad. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. (in press)

                Stein, J. E., W. L. Reichert, M. Nishimoto and U. Varanasi (1989)
                32p- postlabeling of DNA: A sensitive method for assessing
                environmentally induced genotoxicity, pp. 385-390. In: Proceedings
                Oceans '89. Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering
                Society, IEEE.

                Sunda, W.G., P.A. Tester and S.A. Huntsman (1990) Toxicity of trace
                metals to Acartia tonsa in the Elizabeth River and southern
                Chesapeake Bay. Est., Coastal and Shelf Sci. 30: 207-221.


                                                   /015










            Varanasi, U., S.-L. Chan, B. B. McCain, M. H. Schiewe, R. C. Clark, D. W.
            Brown, M. S. Myers, J. T. Landahl, M. M. Krahn, W. D. Gronlund, and W. D.
            MacLeod, Jr. 1988. National Benthic Surveillance Project: Pacific
            Coast. Part 1. Summary and overview of the results for Cycles I to
            111 (1984-86). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
            National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, WA. NOAA Tech. Memo.
            NMFS F/NWC-156, 43 pp. + Figs, 1-21.

            Varanasi, U., S.-L. Chan, B. B. McCain, J. T. Landahl, M. H. Schiewe, R.
            C. Clark, D. W. Brown, M. S. Myers, M. M. Krahn, W. D. Gronlund, and
            W.D. MacLeod, Jr. 1989a. National Benthic Surveillance Project:
            Pacific Coast.  Part 11. Technical presentation of the results for
            Cycles I to 111 (1984-86). National Oceanic and Atmospheric
            Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, WA.
            NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS F/NWC-170,159 pp. + Appendix.

            Varanasi, U., W. L. Reichert, and J. E. Stein. 1989b. 32p-Postlabeling
            analysis of DNA adducts in liver of wild English sole (Parophrys
            yetulus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes
            Cancer Res. 49: 1171-1177.


            Varanasi, U., J. E. Stein, and M. Nishimoto. 1989c. Biotransformation
            and disposition of PAH in fish, pp. 93-149. In: Metabolism of
            Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Aquatic Environment, (U.
            Varanasi, ed.). GRG Press, Boca Raton, FL.

            Varanasi, U., J.E. Stein, L.L. Johnson, T.K. Collier, E. Casillas & M.S.
            Myers. (1991) Evaluation of bioindicators of contaminant exposure
            and effects in coastal ecosystems.   Proceedings of International
            Symposium of Ecological Indicators. (In press)













                4/09/91  11:25     301 231 5764                 N0AA/OMA3  (OAD)                                     002








                       PROGRAM BUDGET                                                      (Dollars in thousands)

                                                                        FY91 		FY92   FY93       FY94       FY95

                       Element A--Bioeffects Surveys                     750       900    1200       1500       1500

                       Element B-Bioindicator Develop.                	 400       600    1100       1400       1500

                       Element C-Effects Research                     	 350       700    1400       2400       4000

                       Element D--Intake/Bioaccumulation
                                           Research                      0          300     800        1400      2000

                               TOTAL                                    1500       2500     4500       6500      9000

























                                                           107
 





                                                    UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
                                                    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                                                    NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICC
                                                   Northwest Fisheries Science Center
                                                   Environmental Conservation Division
                                                   2725 Montlake Boulevard East
                                                   Seattle, Washington 98112

                                                   April 11, 199 1

          MEMORANDUM FOR: Coastal Ocean Program Toxics Theme Team

          FROM:                      Usha Va=asi, Project Manager, Bioeffects Research

          SUBJECT:                  Final Implementation Plan/ Announcement of
                                     Availability of Funds

          Enclosed you will find copies of.

                  Ilie final FY91 Implementation Pl= Contract for the Toxic Chemical
          Contaminant component of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program as it was signed by
          Don Scavia.

                - Our "Announcement of Availability of Funds" for Bioeffects Research
          (Element C) as it was sent off today to NMFS Center Directors and to Bill
          Graham at Sea Grant headquarters for broad academic distribution.

          As outlined in the announcement, 2-3 page $?planning letters" are being requested
          of all interested applicants by no later than May 10th. It will be interesting to see
                                                                                   92
          what kihd of response we get. Please feel free to make extra copies of the
          announcement for additional distribution.


          Enclosures


          cc:  Andrew Robertson
               Peter Landrum
               Anders Andren
               Mararita Conkriaht
               Thomas O'Connor
               David Engel
               Tom Siewicki
               Stanley Rice
               Fred Tburnberg
               James Chambers









                            ANNOUNCEMENT OF AVAILABILITY OF FUNDS
                                            Coastal Ocean Program
                                  Toxic Chemical Contaminants Illeme Area
                                              Bioeffects Research


              1. IntroductionMackground
                    NOAA's ongoincy national environmental monitoring programs have found
              that urbanized and industrialized estuarine and coastal areas have bicrh
              concentrations of chemical contaminants in their sediments and in the tissues of
              the organisms which inhabit these affected regions. In some of the highly
              contaminated areas, resident species are showing signs of impaired health which
              appears to be caused by their chronic exposure to contaminants. A number of
              studies have equated chemical contaminant exposure to -growth inhibition, organ
              dysfunction, and reproductive impairmem And in some locations, contaminant
              levels are sufficiently high to cause mortality to primary prey organisms.
              Significant declines in estuarine populations are believed to be related to the
              combined effects of chemical pollution, habitat loss and degradation, harvesting
              practices, and other factors. The bioeffects research described in this
              Announcement of Availability of Funds is aimed at gaining a better understandina
              of the specific role chemical pollution may play in this overall problem.
                    Research solicited under this announcement seeks to establish linkages
              between exposure to toxic chemicals in the near coastal ocean environment and
              significant biological effects on marine organisms. A primary need is to gain a
              sufficient understanding of how contaminants affect key species at critical points
              in their development and their reproduction. There is a need for research studies
              to be undertaken that will develop an understanding of the processes that link
              chemical contaminants to biological effects at the individual organism level.
              Results from such studies should eventually enhance the ability to assess and
              predict the effects of a broad spectrum of chemical contaminants on populations
              of key marine species and their associated communities. This in turn will provide
              environmental managers with scientifically valid information for decision
              making.


              11. Guidance
                    Funding for Bioeffects Research under this announcement will be $350,000
              in FY1991 and is anticipated to grow in FY1992. nis announcement requests
                                               ta








        proposals for research to begin on or about October 1, 1991. Funding will
        thereafter be determined annually. However, projects of up to 3-years duration
        will be considered. Funding after the initial year will depend on satisfactory
        progress and Congressional appropriations. Cooperative proposals between
        NOAA scientists and academic investigators are encouraged. However, proposals
        solely involving investigators from academia or from NOAA laboratories are not
        precluded.
              It is anticipated that the typical proposal award for FY91 will be about
        $75,000.


        M. Areas of Interest: 1991-1992 Program Years
              For FY 199 1 1 research funding will be limited to species and locales for
        which there is already ample documented evidence of biological effects occurrma
        (e.g., lesions, disease, DNA damage, reproductive impairment, abnormal
        behavior) and for which there is a reasonable suspicion (but not necessarily a
        f=* link) that the observed effects are related to contaminant exposure. For
        these species, some field and/or laboratory studies should have already been done
        which correlate pollutants to specific biological effects.
              Research will be aimed at establi.-zhing linkages between contaminant
        exposure and sipffleant biological effects in individuals. While the ultimate goal
        of this program is to demonstrate effects at the population or ecosystem level, it
        is first necessary to establish the -mechanisms and sequences of events required to
        produce demonstrable effects in individuals. Therefore, the primary effort
        within the scope of this theme area will be to establish relationships between
        environmental contaminant exposure and biological processes in marine biota.
        Research should be concentrated on measuring effects in individuals that might
        have implications at the population level. Three parameters or endpoints
        measurable at the individual level which appear most likely to cause widespread,
        deleterious effects among populations are: impaired growth, impaired
        fecundity., and decreased survival.

              Proposed research projects--that-seek to measure 12rocesses and 12aram-eters
              that establish links-herween contaminant exposure and one or more of the
              above three biological endpoints. either-directly or indirectly, Arg
              especially encouraged.








                  Examples of the types of studies sought for this announcement are listed
           below. This is not a complete fist, and proposals suggestinocr alternative projects
           are welcome.
              (1) Environmentally relevant dose/response experiments to establish cause-
           and-effect relationships between contaminants and biological effects.
              (2) Studies to determine the long term effects,'if any, of a brief pulse of
           contaminant exposure on migratory species (e.cr., salmon) during an early life
           stage.
              (3) Studies to determine the varying sensitivities to exposure of an organism
           at different stages in its life cycle, with an emphasis on early life stages.
              (4) Studies to determine which part(s) of the reproductive process may be
           impaired due to contaminant exposure (e.g., gonadal maturation, hormonal
           regulation, fecundity, spawning, and egg/larvae survival), and to elucidate the
           physiological or molecular mechanisms by which such impairments occur.
              (5) Studies to identify possible cause-and-effect relationships between
           reproductive impairment in fish and invertebrates and the uptake
           (bioaccumulation) and fate (bioconversion) of toxic contaminants.
              (6) Studies to determine how the timing, duration, and sequencing of
           reproductive events may be impaired by contaminant exposure in selected
           commercially and recreationally important esruarine fish.
              (7) Studies to assess possible effects on subsequent generations (filial effects).
              (8) In situ environmental chamber studies to determine factors affecting
           growth and survival of the early life stages of key species (to link laboratory and
           field research).

           Ill. Results of Studies/Products
                  Research on the links between exposure and effects will be conducted as a
           number of separate projects which will lead to the publication of peer-reviewed
           scientific articles and reports. On a regular basis, participants in COP's Toxics
           Chemical Contaminants Theme Area will cooperate to develop sunitnary reports
           on the status of their research and to recommend priorities for future studies.
                  Funded Principal Investigators (P.I.s) of multiyear projects will be
           required to submit annuaJ progress reports, and all funded P.Ls will be required
           to submit a final report including their data within one year of completion of
           their studies. 7he research conducted under this announcement will produce an
           infon-nation base that may be used to identify and predict significant toxic








          chemical contamination problems in coastal environments, including those
          requiring rapid attention to mitigate further damaac.

          rV. Planning Letter Submission
                The proposal submission process will take place *in mo   Ze
                                                                      stag s:
          (1) Applicants must submit a 2-3 page planning letter to the Bloeffects
          Research Project Manager (see Section IX for address). Planning letters
          should be single-spaced and typewritten on 8 1/2 x 11 inch paper. They should
          include intended research plans and justify their significance with respect to the
          interest areas described herein. A budget sheet and curriculum vitae of the
          PI(s) should be attached. All planning letters will be reviewed and the
          applicants will be notified of their status within several weeks of submission.

          (2) Applicants whose planning letters are selected will then be asked to submit
          more detailed research proposals. These proposals will be directed at
          describin,c; specific research plans and exact technical approaches. Sets of
          proposal guidelines will be sent to successful planning letter applicants upon
          notification of their acceptance at the planning letter stage.

          V. Proposal Submission and Evaluation
                In stage two of the evaluation process, research proposals (subsequent to
          planning letter acceptance) will be submitted to a Toxics Proposal Review
          Panel aiid rated. for their intrinsic technical merit relative to the foUowincy
          concerns: (1) applicability of the proposed study toward meeting the project's
          objectives, (2) use of the best available data and information for planning and
          conducting the study, (3) appropriateness and scientific validity of proposed
          research design and testing methodologies, and (4) background, experience, and
          scientific competence of the proposed investigators to carry out the proposed
          study. Proposals with cost sharing, matching funds, or other mechanisms to
          increase the cost effectiveness in the use of the Coastal Ocean Prouram funds will
          be especially encouraged. The Toxics Proposal Review Panel will evaluate all
          submitted proposals and advise the Toxies Program Management
          Committee (PMC) on the merits of and modifications recommended for such
          proposals. In addition, the Toxies Technical Advisory Committee (TAQ
          (composed of five scientists/scientific managers from outside of NOAA) will
          review the overall scientific quality of all research proposed under the Toxics


                                                    /)-2








            procyrnm area and will evaluate all in-house NOAA proposals.


            V1. Selection Criteria: FY1991
              (1) For FY1991, funding will be limited to species and locales for which
            there is already ample documented evidence of biological effects occurring (e.g.,
            lesions, disease, DNA damage, reproductive impairment, abnormal behavior).'
            Consideration will be only given to proposals for species and locations with
            previously observed problems.
              (2) In addition, there must be a reasonable suspicion (but not necessarily a
            firm link) that the observed effects are related to contaminant exposure. For these
            species, some field and laboratory studies should have already been done which
            correlate pollutants to specific biological effects (i.e., cause-and-effect studies).
              (3) The proposal should show promise of estabfishing linkage between
            contaminant exposure and at least one of the three major endpoints: growth,
            fecundity, orsurvival. (see Section M.) -
              (4) The proposal should build on existing knowledge and embrace a "holistic
            approach;" i.e., there is a preference for multidisciplinary teams working
            together.
              (5) NOAA/University cooperative projects are encouraged.
              (6) Encouragement is given to formulate proposals that show matching funds
            or cost-sharing.

            V11. Obligations of Principal Investigators
                   Investig
                          gators funded under the Toxic Chemical Contaminants 'Meme Area
            must agree to undertake the following:
              (1) Participate in annual meetings of P.Ls for planning and coordination of
            program activities, and in developing summary reports on the status of the
            research and assessment beina conducted in this theme area, including the
            recommendation of priorities for the future directions of work.
              (2) Perform quality control checks on data and make them available through
            the program data management system to other investigators in the program to
            further common program objectives.
              (3) Participate in the synthesis and interpretation of research results and the
            development of products of value to environmental manacrers.
              (4) Publish research results in the peer-reviewed literature for the benefit of
            the marine toxicology scientific community.


                                                             3







           (5) Produce annual progress reports.
           (6) Submit their data in a final report within one year of completion of their
         studies and copies of these final reports will be available from the Program
         Office in NOS/OAD.


         VUL Funding Schedule
           - May 10, 1991 - Deadline for planning letter submission to the Bioeffects
         Research Project Manager (address below).
             May 27, 1991 - Completion of planning letter review by Toxics
         PMC/Toxics TAC. Notification of results to applicants, and requests made for
         detailed research proposals to successful applicants. (Proposal guideldnes sent.)
           - June 18, 1991 -Deadline for research proposal submission to appropriate
         sponsoring organization and to Toxics PMC.
           - June 22-23, 1991 - Completion of proposal review by Toxics Proposal
         Review Panel and Technical Advisory Committee. Notification of results.
           - July 1, 1991 - Submission of approved grant proposals to the National
         Sea Grant Off-ice for processing.
           * July 15, 1991 --- Submission to NOAA Grants Office for processing, and
         awarding of grants.

         IX. Submission of Planning Letters by May 10, 1991 to:
         Dr. Usha Varanasi
         Project Manager, Bioeffects Research
         Environmental Conservation Division
         Northwest Fisheries Science Center
         2725 Montlake Boulevard East
         Seattle, WA 98112
         (206) 553-7737/FrS 399-7737


         X. Toxics Proaram Management Committee
                         0
         Dr. Andrew Robertson
         Chief, Ocean Assessments Division
         Office of Oceanography & Marine Assessment
         National Ocean Service, NOAA
         6001 Executive Blvd., Rm.323
         Rockville, MD 20852
         (301) 443-8933












                                 			NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM


									COASTAL HAZARDS
	
								FY91 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN





                                                            











                                                    March 1991











               This Plan represents an agreement between the Coastal Ocean Program Office and
               the Coastal Hazards Theme line office Assistant Administrators concerning the
               management and review processes, scientific and operational procedures, products,
               and budget for implementing this portion of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program in FY91.


                      Ned A. Ostenso, Assistant Administrator                              Date
                      Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research


                 	    E.W. Friday, Assistant Administrator                                  Date
                      National Weather Service
                                              	                                       
                      Virginia K. Tippie, Assistant Administrator                          Date
                      National Ocean Service
                 



		        Donald Scavia, Director                                              Date
                    NOAA Coastal Ocean Program
                  
                  
                 


                 U.S. Department of Commerce
                 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
 









                                               TABLE OF CONTENTS



             1.0 Introduction   ............................................                        1
                    1. 1 Background     ........................................                    1
                    1.2 Program Goal      .......................................                   3
                    1.3 Program Strategy     ....................................                   3

             2.0 Program Elements     .........................................                     4
                    2.1 Tsunami Hazard Mitigation     ..............................                4
                           2. 11 Background     ..................................                  4
                           2.12 Objectives   ..................................                     5
                           2.13 Approach     ...................................                    5
                           2.14 FY91 Products    .................................                  6

                    2.2 Coastal Storm Surges     .................................                  6
                           2.21 Background      ..................................                  6
                           2.22 Goals and Objectives      ...........................               7
                           2.23 Approach     ...................................                    7
                           2.24 FY91 Products    .................................                  8


                    2.3 Coastal Water Level Variability    ...........................              8
                           2.31 Background      ..................................                  8
                           2.32 Objectives   ..................................                     9
                           2.33 Approach     ...................................                    9
                           2.34 FY91 Products    .................................                  13

             3.0 Data Management       ..........................................                   13
                    3.1    Tsunami Inundation    .................................                  13
                    3.2    Coastal Water Level Variability    .........................             14

             4.0 Program Management and Evaluation          ..........................              14
                    4. 1 Internal .........................................                         14
                    4.2 External  ........................................                          14
                    4.3 Relationships tolContributions from NOAA Base
                         & Other Agencies    ...................................                    15
                           4.31 Tsunami Inundation      .............................               15
                           4.32 Storm Surge   ..................................                    15
                           4.33 Water Level Variability    ..........................               15

             5.0 Resource Requirements       .....................................                  16
                    5.1 Proposed Program Budgets        .............................               16
                    5.2 Aircraft and Ship Requirements      ...........................             16

             6.0 References    .............................                ............            16




                                                       U&











                                               COASTAL HAZARDS


                                       IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR FY91


                                                  1.0. Introduction


              1.1. Background. In one way or another, U.S. coastal populations, resources, and
              environments are periodically impacted by extreme natural phenomena, often with
              resultant loss of life and extensive property damage. Whether they are east coast
              northeasters, Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, Great Lakes frontal systems, or Pacific coast
              tsunamis, mitigation of and recovery from the effects of flooding, shoreline erosion,
              channel and harbor sedimentation, and wave action cost U.S. interests billions of
              dollars each year.

              NOAA's mission to protect life and property has been hindered by the incorporation of
              improved numerical simulations developed by the research community into operational
              models for marine warnings and forecasts. In addition, effective management
              decisions and engineering solutions require a firm understanding of the physical
              processes affecting coastal evolution, as well as accurate models for predicting the
              impacts of natural and man-made changes. These inadequacies were identified at a
              1989 inter-agency/academia workshop on Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems and
              recommendations were made to develop and validate a predictive system for the U.S.
              coastal ocean, including the capability of forecasting the EEZ for several days and of
              simulating it for several years (Mooers, 1990).


              Adequate predictions of coastal winds, waves, and storm surges are indispensable for
              predicting physical hazards in coastal waters and managing coastal resources.
              Coastal winds and waves present navigational hazards to ships, cause flood and
              erosion damage to coastal properties, and destroy living marine resources.
              Consequently, improved operational models are urgently needed for predicting coastal
              marine winds and waves and real-time forecasts. These forecasts will help NWS
              marine forecasters provide more accurate and timely warnings of hazardous
              conditions to the public, commercial maritime transportation interests, recreational
              boaters, and other shoreline users. These improvements also will benefit the private
              atmospheric and oceanographic sectors which furnish specialized products and
              services to marine interests. In addition, improved knowledge about over-water
              meteorology and coastal wave conditions will benefit circulation and thermal structure
              modeling efforts, ecological and environmental modeling and assessment, Coast
              Guard search and rescue operations, and hazardous spill response efforts.

              As noted by an NSF/ONR panel on natural coastal hazards: "winter storms,
              hurricanes, tsunamis, ... and other marine hazards have caused heavy loss of life
              and property on the coasts of the U.S. and at sea." (Nath and Dean, 1984). The



                                                         117









          panel also noted that "losses can be greatly reduced through better design,
          construction, and planning" and "advances In knowledge were effected by the
          complexity of the problem and the lack of measurements." The panel
          recommended that "research Is encouraged to reduce the risk to the nation from
          marine hazards."

          The impacts of long-term changes in sea level must also be considered. For example,
          as sea level has risen over the past few thousand years, erosion of the continental
          margins has increased. Today, extensive media coverage of the problems of our
          nation's eroding beaches and retreating shorelines, as well as growing expenditures
          for shore protection, show an increasing public concern about coastal erosion. The
          level of this concern has been increasing recently for two reasons.

          First, coastal areas have become much more highly urbanized. About half the U.S.
          population presently resides in coastal areas, and by 2010 the coastal population will
          have grown from 80 million people to over 127 million (Culliton, et al, 1990).
          Consequently, the actual and potential economic impacts of inundation and erosion on
          coastal life and property are enormous. Difficult management decisions are made at
          local, state, and national levels whether or how to stabilize shorelines, implement flood
          protection works, or plan economic development.

          Secondly, sea level changes and storm frequency and intensity are markedly
          dependent upon changes in large scale weather patterns. Considerable emphasis also
          has been placed upon the possibility of man-induced changes to climate and weather.
          Some attempts are being made to protect beaches and beachfront property, but they
          are very expensive. In 1987, federal funds for beach erosion projects on the East
          Coast totaled $500 million, and California recently spent $70 million for seawalls and
          beach nourishment projects. Yet these projects and other coastal structures are
          designed today much as they were 50 years ago: with primitive models and intuition.
          Consider the findings of a recent National Research Council study, "Managing Coastal
          Erosion," (NRC,1990): "in order to improve the methodology for assessing beach
          erosion and the risk of collapse of structures, much more research needs to be
          undertaken by FEIVIA and other appropriate agencies, e.g., NOAA and the Corps
          of Engineers on the following:

                o determination of the long-term wave climatology through
                   field data collection programs

                o monitoring of beach response to wave climate variations
                       and episodic events

                o predictive mathematical and statistical models of probability distribution
                       of shoreline locations"









             Our understanding of coastal winds and waves and their impacts is hindered by
             insufficient data sets necessary for determining their spatial and temporal variability.
             Considering the length of the U. S coastline, very few wave data are available to
             describe spatial and temporal variations in coastal wave climate. The Coastal Data
             Information System monitors wave conditions at about .20 locations on the west coast
             (Seymour and Sessions, 1976). NOAA and the Corps of Engineers obtain wave data
             from very few offshore buoys. Detailed measurements of infragravity waves are almost
             nonexistent, as are comprehensive long-term mean flow data in the shoreface region.

             These data deficiencies have several causes. First, the nearshore environment is
             extremely inhospitable to instrumentation. Storm waves, biological fouling, sediment
             movement, and human interference inhibit sampling opportunities. Second, only
             recently have reliable, accurate sensors been developed for long-term measurements
             of fluid flow and waves. Third, costs for instrument installation and maintenance are
             often prohibitive.

             A report by the NSF-sponsored Coastal Ocean Processes workshop (NSF, 1989)
             states, "less is known about the inner shelf than any other portion of the coastal
             region, yet It Is Important for a variety of reasons. At present we are limited by a
             lack of good observations with which to develop and evaluate models of Inner
             shelf processes."

             1.2. Program Goal. The primary goal of the Coastal Hazards component of the
             Coastal Ocean Program is to reduce the threat to lives, property and coastal
             resources through more accurate and timely warnings and forecasts of coastal
             flooding, extreme winds, and hazardous ocean conditions. This will be accomplished
             through unified experiments and model development. Quantitative understanding of
             natural processes will be complemented by improved, time-dependent dynamical
             models. The improved models will be used to meet NOAA mission requirements for
             early warning of marine hazards: storm surge and tsunami inundation, potential
             shoreline erosion, and extreme winds and waves. Existing and newly collected data
             and model results will provide the information necessary to develop design guidance
             and formulate management plans for hazard identification and emergency response to
             reduce the threat of extreme events to coastal populations and property. Specific
             objectives of each component of the program are given in the appropriate sections
             below.


             1.3. Program Strategy. The Coastal Hazards program is founded upon strong
             theoretical precepts and models that will be tested and improved through an ordered
             sequence of process-oriented field experiments. Comprehensive sets of long-term
             field measurements of the important variables must be developed concurrently to
             provide statistically valid data to define the forcing/response mechanisms over a wide
             range of time and space scales. The process is iterative. Theoretical models suggest
             initial experimental design. The resulting data, in turn, allow more advanced model



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            development, which drives the design of more complex experiments. Thus, it is
            imperative that linkages between numerical modelers and field and laboratory
            investigators be extremely close. An important outcome of this process will be the
            ability to establish requirements for a permanent baseline observing network to
            initialize and quality control the operational prediction models.

            The first priority will be improvements to existing NOAA products (warnings and
            forecasts) through analysis of existing data, carefully planned observational
            experiments, and development of numerical algorithms based on our improved
            understanding of the physics. During FY91, emphasis will be placed on improvements
            in the quality and timeliness of existing products known to be of great utility to ongoing
            NOAA missions. Academic input will be solicited to assist in enhancing scientific
            quality of the work. Once existing products have been improved, the program will shift
            to the development of new NOAA products which contribute to reduced threats and
            losses from coastal hazards.


                                           2.0. Program Elements.

            During FY91, the initial efforts of the Coastal Hazards component of NOAA's Coastal
            Ocean Program will address the inundation of low-lying coastal areas from hurricane
            and extra-tropical storm surges and tsunamis and longer-term variability in sea level
            and shoreline response to episodic erosional forces. The following sections describe
            the specific rationale, objectives, approaches, products for each program component.


            2.1. Tsunami Hazard Mitigation

            2.11. Background. NOAA's tsunami warning system presently provides only one
            product: time of arrival. Existing estimates of coastal flooding, the primary basis for
            hazard mitigation planning, are derived from models with uncertain accuracy, leading
            to confusion and a lack of confidence on the part of decision-makers. If tsunami
            inundation models are to produce useful flooding estimates, then both the proper
            model physics and a realistic specification of offshore forcing conditions are essential.

            In practice, the offshore conditions are provided by a combined
            generation/propagation model which first simulates the generation of a tsunami
            through a specific seismic mechanism at a particular geographical location, then
            propagates the resulting wave energy to the outer boundary of the site-specific
            inundation model. The questionable accuracy of this two-step modeling process is
            directly related to a severe lack of high quality field measurements in the open ocean
            and at exposed coastal locations. The importance of these data is apparent if one
            considers NOAA's hurricane storm surge program. In sharp contrast to tsunami
            inundation products, storm surge flooding predictions are made demonstrably more
            reliable through comparison with reliable field observations.



                                                       /J-0









             In 1986, an observational effort was begun to meet this need, when NOAA
             implemented a deep ocean tsunami monitoring network of five stations in the
             northeast Pacific. In 1987, the U.S. Corps of Engineers also agreed to develop
             tsunami measurement capabilities at six exposed coastal locations along the U.S. west
             coast and Hawaii, through modifications to their existing Coastal Data Information
             Program (CDIP) observational network. The annual cost of this combined network is
             approximately one million dollars.

             In 1989, a complementary modeling component was initiated when the
             NOAA/University of Hawaii Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research
             created the JIMAR Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE). The State of Hawaii provided
             $100,000 to study the tsunami flooding problem and specifically to examine the
             accuracy of existing inundation estimates for the Hawaiian Islands.

             Recently, these combined efforts produced the first comparison of appropriate tsunami
             measurements and model computations. Exceptionally high quality observations of
             two very small tsunamis were acquired in the open ocean, providing critically important
             data for comparison with an existing generation/propagation model. Preliminary
             results indicated that serious shortcomings exist in our present ability to model
             tsunami generation by a particular seismic event and then to propagate that energy to
             a region offshore of a specific coastal site. Since accurate specification of the offshore
             tsunami wave field is crucial to accurate modeling of coastal inundation, two parallel
             and complementary activities are essential: a continuous tsunami field observation
             program and a tightly coupled modeling effort.

             2.12. FY91 Objectives. The specific objectives for FY91 are to:

                    o collect additional deep ocean and coastal tsunami measurements

                    o develop improved tsunami inundation modeling capabilities

             2.13. Approach. An integrated approach consisting of complementary observational
             and model development efforts is planned.

             Observations. Siting strategy for deep ocean stations will continue to focus on the
             Shumagi       smic Gap, a 400-km wide region in the seismically active Aleutian Trench
             with high potential for generation of tsunamis threatening Hawaii, Alaska and the U.S.
             west coast. During FY91, reliability of this observational network will be enhanced
             through the addition of two deep ocean units to the instrument pool. More
             instruments are needed to replace aging and unreliable units and eliminate the risky
             process of rapid refurbishment and re-deployment of carefully calibrated sensors
             under hectic field season conditions.









             The existing near-coast observation sites operated by the Corps of Engineers are
             primarily the result of ad-hoc hardware modifications and data collection procedures
             designed to obtain shallow water tsunami measurement capabilities on-line when
             possible. FY91 efforts will involve development of a technical plan by the contractor
             (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) for an upgraded system incorporating NOAA
             requirements for instrument accuracy and collection procedures. Implementation of
             the plan will also begin in FY91 by upgrading one or more of the coastal measurement
             stations determined by NOAA to have high priority for accurate tsunami observations.

             Modeling Development of a capability to produce standardized, site-specific
             inundation estimates requires that fundamental scientific questions regarding model
             physics and numerical schemes be addressed. In addition, practical concerns must
             be dealt with, such as the availability and quality of bathymetric data, and criteria for
             estimating the accuracy of inundation estimates. Development of inundation modeling
             capabilities will focus on Hilo, Hawaii, the U.S. coastal community judged most
             vulnerable to the tsunami threat, through a competitive peer-review of academic
             proposals. A letter solicitation (Appendix A) will be sent to the principal U.S. tsunami
             modelers, proposals will be reviewed by a NOAA/academic review panel, and the top-
             rated proposal will be funded.

             2.14. FY91 Products. Highest priority will be given to improving the reliability and
             accuracy of the existing tsunami observational network, and to the development of
             standardized procedures for the production of site-specific tsunami inundation maps.
             Specifically:

               o  Two tsunami measurement systems will be constructed to supplement the
                   existing instrument pool

               o  Three oceanographic cruises will be carried out to recover and re-deploy the
                   deep ocean network stations

              o   Numerical predictions of tsunami inundation elevations for Hilo, Hawaii will be
                   developed to help in producing maps useful to management and planning
                   agencies.


             2.2. Coastal Storm Surge

             2.21. Background. For FY91, this component considers the inundation of low-lying
             coastal areas resulting from storm surges, the rapid and often extreme flooding of
             coastal areas. Ninety per cent of hurricane related deaths and damage are due to
             storm surge flooding.









              In response to this need, NWS developed the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from
              Hurricanes (SLOSH) model in the late 1970's. In FY81, Congress funded a 5-year
              program to adapt the generalized SLOSH model to vulnerable coastal areas and
              basins based on their particular physical characteristics. Since that program began,
              the model has been run with simulations for many hypothetical hurricanes to profile
              the possible surge flooding in a given basin. Since completion of the 5 year
              congressional initiative in FY85, a small effort has continued within NWS to improve the
              SLOSH model and apply it to additional basins.

              The Federal Emergency Management Administration relies on SLOSH model results to
              determine the siting of evacuation shelters and the segment of a basin's population
              that is at risk from hurricane surge flooding. To date, basic models have been
              developed for 33 of 39 basins and hurricane simulations have been completed for 17
              of the basins.

              Extra-tropical storms also generate significant storm surges, especially along the U.S.
              East Coast, off the Pacific Northwest, and in the Gulf of Alaska. Most damage occurs
              during the winter when storms often intensify rapidly over near-coastal waters from a
              combination of terrain effects, air/sea energy exchange, and converging maritime and
              continental air masses. Such may last for several tidal cycles, producing high waves
              and water levels.

              2.22. Goals and FY91 Objectives. The long-term goals of this component are 1) to
              develop, calibrate, and verify regional meteorological analysis and prediction models
              for marine boundary layer winds; 2) to develop, calibrate, and verify models for
              prediction of wave conditions and hurricane and extra-tropical storm surge; and 3) to
              implement these models operationally for coastal and Great Lakes regions.

              During FY91, the storm surge component will 1) apply the existing SLOSH model to
              areas urgently requiring inundation predictions for planning evacuation and emergency
              preparedness plans; 2) improve the model results by continued adaptation to critical
              segments of the coastline and by incorporating new algorithms for significant physical
              processes affecting hurricane surge levels; 3) develop new models for predicting
              surges due to extra-tropical storms. The objectives are to:

                     ï¿½ Develop complete set of hurricane surge scenarios for two additional basins
                     ï¿½ Begin development of a forecast capability for extra-tropical storm surge

              2.23. Approach: SLOSH will be adapted to the remaining new basins and updated
              for past basins to assure that no SLOSH database is over five years old. Early SLOSH
              models will be enhanced to take advantage of model physics developed after the
              basin simulation was completed. One additional hurricane simulation study will be
              completed each year. This work will allow comprehensive evacuation studies to be
              started in other critical areas. A major consideration is that the model run fast enough



                                                         /.)_3









           on NOAA's computers to allow several SLOSH/SLOSH +wave runs to be made in real-
           time as a hurricane threatens. The model will, in all likelihood, require a detailed, fine-
           scale description of the nearshore bathymetry that will be provided by NOS.

           During FY91, the systematic update of SLOSH models to keep them current will begin
           with the updating of two additional basins. The basins selected for updating will be
           determined based on requirements from the National Weather Service, the Federal
           Emergency Management Agency, and the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. All three
           agencies are closely involved in hurricane evacuation planning for coastal areas.

           Extra-tropical storm surge forecasting is also a major thrust for FY91. NWS currently
           uses a statistical approach for forecasting storm surges along the East Coast. This
           work was done approximately 20 years ago and is in dire need of updating.
           A "perfect prognosis" approach was taken in which statistical relationships were
           formed by correlating observed water levels with coincident (in time) meteorological
           analyses. The major drawback of this approach is its applicability only to sites where
           data has been collected.

           The numerical modeling approach to extra-tropical storm surge prediction will begin
           with the SLOSH model as a basis. An expansion of existing grids along the East
           Coast will allow coverage of a larger area than is currently used by SLOSH. Existing
           data from several extra-tropical flooding events and nearshore process experiments
           will be compiled and analyzed. Analyzed wind and pressure data will be used to drive
           the numerical model, generating computed values for water levels. Assuming that this
           test provides acceptable accuracy for the storm surge forecast, the storm surge model
           will be tested using forecast winds extracted directly from the NWS's numerical models
           of the atmosphere.

           2.24. FY91 Products. FY91 products include updated hurricane surge models for two
           basins. These models will be available to NHC for real-time hurricane surge
           forecasting and for use in hurricane evacuation planning through simulation studies.

           2.3. Coastal Water Level Variabilit


           2.31. Background. Although longer-term variations in sea and lake levels often
           exacerbate short-term flooding produced by storms and tsunamis, there has been little
           documentation of the temporal and spatial variability in coastal water levels. Such
           information is required to address a host of coastal safety, policy, planning, and
           operational issues which require an accurate knowledge of past, present and
           projected variations of water level elevations and coastline positions, e.g. marine
           boundaries and baselines determinations, coastal protection/erosion policies and
           programs, statistics of water level variations for planning studies and engineering
           design, more timely and accurate warnings of inundation hazards, and development of
           coastal wetland and urban management policies.


                                                      /0@@









              2.32. Objectives. The FY91 objectives are

                     o to digitize historical data sets of coastal long-term water levels beginning with
                            selected west coast locations


                     o to initiate development of U.S. west coast sea level climatology based on
                            existing and newly digitized water level data sets


              2.33. Approach. Water Level Climatology and Prediction. For major U.S. coastal
              regions, a water level climatology will be developed for the coast and offshore waters.
              It will be based on available observations of water level, weather and offshore oceanic
              conditions and will characterize the response of water levels to atmospheric and
              oceanic forcing. Much of the data have been measured over many years, but the
              older records are hard to use because they have not all been digitized.

              The work will determine water level response as a function of frequency and establish
              the effects of inter-annual variations of forcing functions. It will also look at improving
              forecast skill for water level by including the oceanic signal. This will help to define the
              frequency and intensity of extreme events that have occurred as well as the general
              statistics of water level fluctuations which together are the basis for the water level
              climatology. The statistics depend on how water levels respond to each time scale
              (frequency) of forcing. Partitioning of the statistics into "normal" and "anomalous"
              oceanic conditions is part of the methodology. Models will be used to extend the
              water level statistics alongshore between observations sites and seaward to the shelf
              break. The following steps are envisioned.

              1. Establishing Geographical Regimes with Different Climatologies. Long-term tide
              gage records (the primary source of information about water level climatology) that are
              sparsely spaced along the coast will be combined with more closely spaced but
              shorter-term coastal secondary tide gage and other records to obtain regional
              distributions of tidal and non-tidal water level variations. These distributions will then be
              used to divide coastal regions into geographical regimes, each with its own
              climatology for the tides, weather-induced and oceanic signals in water level. The
              climatology will contain the probability of extreme events, the amplitude and duration of
              synoptic weather, seasonal fluctuations and the effects on sea level of inter-annual
              variations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing.

              2. Development of Predictive Capability. Models are also needed to predict the
              distribution of sea level variations in a given region. The appropriate statistical
              methods and partitioning of observations (i.e., into seasons, inter-annual periods) will
              be applied to produce robust estimates of temporal sea level variability, the
              probabilities of occurrence of extreme events and a measure of the reliability of these
              estimates. The duration of non-tidal water level events will be characterized since the




                                                            I
                                                           M









            length of time the water level is at an extreme value is often just as important as the
            maximum elevation of the event. Finally, the extreme sea level events will be
            interpreted in terms of contributions from tides, weather and oceanic signals to provide
            the user with an understanding of the events and their likelihood of occurrence, i.e. to
            define which aspects of the events are predictable. NOS, ERL and NWS will work
            closely on this effort.

            During FY91, PMEL will begin to develop methods for determining the climatology of
            coastal sea level variations along a portion of the U.S. West Coast using analyses of
            water level, weather and oceanic time series as follows:

            INITIAL REGION OF INTEREST: This region will be from Monterey CA (an exposed
            coastal site south of the long-term San Francisco station located within the mid-
            California sea level regime) to Newport OR (near-coastal site where extensive sea
            level, bottom pressure, weather and oceanic observations have been made; it is
            located to the north of the transition from the California to Northwest sea level
            regimes.) This region contains the highly populated and growing San Francisco Bay
            Area where coastal flooding is a major issue.

            The oceanography of the adjacent continental shelf has been studied extensively in the
            CODE and Super-CODE experiments; classic studies of seasonal and inter-annual sea
            level variations (e.g., El Nino) have used sea level observations in the region and
            linked these to the behavior of sea level elsewhere along the West Coast. The shelf in
            this region is narrow and has a relatively simple tidal regime caused by oceanic Kelvin
            waves propagating northward along the coast.

            The past sea level work in this region includes research on adjusted sea level (ASL,
            the sum of water levels and atmospheric pressure), shelf currents and the effects on
            ASL of weather and offshore oceanic conditions. However the behavior of sea level
            itself (unadjusted for atmospheric pressure) over the full range of important time scales
            has not been reported in the scientific literature.

            INITIAL ANALYSES AND DATA ACQUISITION. The initial analyses will be done on the
            hourly San Francisco record which is already available at PMEL and extended to other
            water level records as they become available from NOS and other sources (e.g.,
            Oregon State University which has an extensive database for the region). Many of the
            analyses are semi-automated on the new EPIC database management, analysis and
            display system at PMEL. Some effort will be needed to obtain time series and install
            them in the database and to find the best storage medium for ready computer access
            to the large data set.

            Some weather and surface ocean databases are available at PMEL. They include the
            Bauken weather distributions (6- and/or 12-hr distributions) for offshore winds and
            atmospheric pressure) and the COADS distributions of monthly-averaged surface


                                                      1.1)6









               water properties. Some effort is needed to acquire offshore stearic height time series
               and distributions; the CALCOR data set is one example. These may be available at
               universities where substantial research has been done on the region (e.g., Oregon
               State University and Scripps Institute of Oceanography); it may be necessary to let a
               small contract to obtain this data. When funding allows, it will be useful to start
               cooperative studies with academic scientists from these institutions.

               Detrending: Following a procedure developed in a pilot study on long-term water level
               records in the Puget Sound region, the long-term records will be detrended using a
               spline-fift method which allows for variations in the long-term trends. The results will be
               checked through the stationarity (temporal constancy of statistics) of annual maximum
               water events as seen in the hourly data. The programs for detrending and finding the
               extreme events in hourly data were developed as part of the pilot study and need to
               be interfaced with the EPIC package.

               Tidal Analyses: Sequential tidal analyses will be performed for quality assurance and
               to check on the 18.6 year nodal variations and stationarity of harmonic constants.
               This will lead in subsequent work to detailed cotidal charts for the coastal region. The
               detided time series (observed minus predicted) will be useful in studying high-
               frequency events.

               Low-passed Time Series: Time series plots of 35-hr low-passed water levels
               (resampled at 6-hr intervals for efficiency) will be analyzed for seasonal behavior and
               inter-annual variations in the subtidal (frequencies less than tidal) signals as seen in
               the variance. These will be used to determine the lengths of winter and summer
               periods for spectral analyses that avoid transitional periods between seasons and to
               identify anomalous years. The El Nino signal should be most evident in the low-
               passed time series as well as the 50-70 day waves propagating northward along the
               coast from the equatorial region.

               Auto-spectra and Coherence Analyses: Winter and summer auto-spectra at individual
               stations (starting with San Francisco) and coherences between tide stations will be
               compared with published distributions of adjusted sea level to assess how well these
               represent the spectral behavior of the actual sea level fluctuations (the published ASL
               spectral and variances undoubtedly underestimate the amplitudes of actual coastal sea
               level.) The spectral analyses will include subtidal and supertidal (high-frequency)
               frequency bands. The coherence analyses will provide the transfer functions which
               relate non-tidal sea level signals at the primary station (San Francisco) to the signals at
               the other tide stations along the coast.

               The scientific payoff is a better understanding of how weather and the ocean force
               coastal water level over a broad range of time scales and whether there is a
               relationship between the high-frequency variations (central to forecasting storm
               surges) and background, low4requency signals (the focus of climate studies). For




                                                        0 7









            example, an ENSO event (El Nino) can affect water levels in many ways. Local water
            levels can be raised directly by long-distance forcing, water density changes, local or
            offshore current changes, atmospheric pressure changes, and atmospheric conditions
            can be altered enough to produce more frequent and more intense coastal storm
            systems.

            Historical Water Levels Diaitization. To support the climatology and prediction effort,
            NOS will begin to digitize historical water level data which are still only in manuscript
            form and merge them into the modern relational data base presently under
            development within NOS. The term "digitize" is used for simplicity, a more correct
            term might be "make computer compatible." Included within this effort are activities in
            selecting data to be digitized, quality control, adjustments to common datum, and
            statistical summarization. Future work using this data will include scientific studies and
            a suite of practical products.

            DATA AVAILABILITY AND SELECTION: NOS presently operates 189 long term
            primary tide (140) and Great Lake water level (49) stations and a varying number of
            shorter term secondary stations. Over 5000 secondary stations have been occupied
            at various times in the past. Since the late 1960's most of the data from primary
            stations has been recorded digitally and are generally available to the entire scientific
            and engineering communities. However, older historical data (some dating into the
            last century) and secondary stations are not available in a computer compatible
            format. These data are needed to extend the statistical reliability, expand the data
            base to cover coastal regions for which there are no primary stations, and to maintain
            datums for use by local communities, industries, surveyors, and boundary
            determinations.

            Of these 189 primary stations, about 40 of the longest operating tide stations are
            expected to be digitized using resources from the Climate and Global Change
            Program. Some primary stations only have 20 or so years of data, all digital. Records
            from many of the secondary stations are too short to be useful or no longer have
            adequate benchmarks remaining. Thus, about 130 primary stations along with about
            2000 secondary stations are estimated to need some digitizing under this program,
            much more than can be afforded immediately. Priorities will, therefore, be established
            using criteria which are geographical, record length, and record quality.

            DIGITIZATION AND QUALITY CONTROL: Digitization will generally be limited to hourly
            heights and highs and lows along with datum information. This will allow effective
            reconstruction of the tide/water level time series. Should a few series be needed at
            faster sampling rates, original analog records can be digitized. However, experience
            indicates that such would be required infrequently.

            Because of the wide range of handwriting types in the original manuscripts, including
            the flowery styles of yesteryear, it does not appear to be feasible to use automated


                                                       1,29









              scanner equipment to perform the digitization. The digitizing will have to be done by
              hand.

              For quality control purposes, all data will be digitized twice and compared. Besides
              the comparisons, quality control will include several check sums which are available
              from earlier manual summaries. Further checks will be made using the specialized
              software which is used to control the quality in modern digital water level data.

              The analyses being performed by PIVIEL will provide a further check on quality. As
              data become available for the South Atlantic Bight, simple analyses will be performed
              both to assure that quality.


              2.34. FY91 Products. This component of the FY91 Coastal Hazards program will
              provide improved data to support wave, storm surge, and tsunami forecasting by the
              NWS; and improved vertical datums for marine boundary determination, nautical
              charting, and local surveying. The FY91 products include:

                     o   Expanded water level data set in the NOS relational data base.

                     o   Statistical analyses, including an evaluation of robust exploratory data
                           analysis methods, for selected coastal tide gage records.

                     o   A data report summarizing the characteristics and distributions of sea level
                           variations for the Northern California-Southern Oregon Coast. This is an
                           important step toward producing a sea level climatology at individual
                           stations and a necessary foundation for producing a sea level
                           climatology for the region.

                     o   Detailed plans for future work.

                                            3.0 Data Management

              3.1. Tsunami Inundation. PIVIEL will process and manage tsunami bottom pressure
              data collected by the observational network. Tsunami instrumentation continues to be
              refined and improved, so that three generations of tsunami gauges currently exist in
              the network instrument pool. As a consequence of this evolution, data processing
              procedures are not completely standardized or automated, and some special
              processing is generally required to take account of differences specific to each
              individual record.


              In the event of a tsunami, data will be made available to collaborating COP
              investigators on an individual basis. The appropriate sub-series of records will then be
              specially processed to extract an accurate tsunami signature, including the application



                                                       10)_q









           of algorithms to correct for errors such as changes in sensor calibration constants,
           reference clock drift during deployment, and spurious signals induced by temperature
           sensitivity of the pressure sensor. Additional processing will be required for removal of
           tides, appropriate filtering to isolate energy in the tsunami frequency band, and
           conversion of pressure to sea level values through depth- and frequency-dependent
           compensation for hydrodynamic filtering. Not all procedures have been fully
           developed and implemented at this time.

           3.2. Coastal Water Level Variability. NOS will assemble and add historical data sets
           to water level and tidal datum data bases being developed on base funds. All digitized
           tide and water level data will be available to the entire external community of users at
           nominal cost. Beginning in late FY92, the data will be available on-line through the
           new data base management system being developed on base funds and presently
           under contract.



                                4.0 Program Management and Evaluation

           4.1. Internal. Our approach stresses the integration and application of existing line
           office capabilities to coastal hazards research, modeling, and information products.
           Identified gaps in capabilities will be filled through an open, competitive solicitation and
           review from academic or other non-NOAA sources.

           Since this element draws heavily upon the capabilities of several line organizations, an
           interim project manager in the Coastal Ocean Program Office will coordinate initial
           program development efforts. NOAA'S Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
           (PMEL) will be primarily responsible for management and implementation of the
           tsunami observations and modeling effort; NWS's Techniques Development Laboratory
           will be responsible for the storm surge modeling and development; and NOS and
           PMEL will work closely on the water level variability research.

           The PI's will maintain close and continuous cooperation since results and products
           derived from one element of the program will frequently be used to upgrade other
           elements.

           4.2. External. External input to the program has been obtained by including
           academicians in the program development phase and by review of program plans by
           the NAS Panel on the Coastal Ocean (PoCO). Assistance from the academic
           community in implementing portions of the program will be obtained largely through a
           competitive, peer-reviewed process. A technical advisory panel will be selected in
           FY91 to review and evaluate the technical quality and utility of existing products and to
           identify the needs for additional products. The panel will eventually provide the
           working group and the project manager with recommendations for new programmatic
           thrusts based on both science and management perspectives. The panel will consist




                                                     ,Y









             of scientists experienced in understanding and modeling coastal inundation
             phenomena as well as coastal construction and emergency management specialists
             concerned with developing improved design criteria and management plans impacted
             by episodic coastal flooding.

             4.3. Relationships to and Contributions from NOAA Base and other agency
             programs.

             4.31. Tsunami Inundation. NOAA has historically worked closely with other agencies
             and the academic community in developing tsunami observational and modeling
             capabilities, including:

               o   PMEL base funding has supported initial development of the deep water tsunami
                   measurement system

               o   The JIMAR Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE) is a joint NOAA/University of Hawaii
                   activity partially funded by the State of Hawaii

               o   Development of a nearshore tsunami measuring capability using the U.S. Army
                   Corps of Engineers wave gage network and Scripps Institute of Oceanography
                   collection system.

                o  NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) will be a recipient of
                   inundation estimate products,

               o   State of Hawaii agencies will also receive inundation products.

               o   The National Science Foundation is developing a proposal for enhanced
                   research in tsunami modeling. The NOAA Coastal Ocean Program will work
                   closely with the NSF program manager to insure coordinated and cost-effective
                   approaches.

             4.32. Storm Surge. The extra-tropical storm surge development will be done with
             contractors assistance working inhouse with NWS TDL scientists. Through a
             competitive process, NWS has in effect a task order contract. The contractor will
             provide modeling capability based on review and analysis of recognized expertise in
             storm surge modeling, and subject to TDL approval. Previous experience has shown
             that this approach effectively satisfies TI)L's need for external assistance in research
             and development activities.

             4.33. Coastal Water Level Variability. The water level variability component of this
             program complements and extends an ongoing $8M NOS effort to measure and
             predict tidal and lake elevations, circulation patterns, and currents in estuaries and









           nearshore waters. Through enhanced use and analysis of data collected by base-
           funded activities improved understanding and predictions of natural variability in water
           level variability will be obtained. Further, the addition of this historical data to the
           relational data base being developed with base funding will provide ready access to a
           much larger water level data set for more timely verification of model predictions and
           several other purposes. The work may also benefit from a proposed Climate and
           Global Change Program effort to digitize historical data from a number of U.S. coastal
           water level gages.

           PMEL base funds will be used to support the preparation and publication of research
           papers on a pilot study of sea level variability in the Puget Sound Region and as
           matching funds for the analysis of sea level along the Northern California/
           Southern Oregon Coast. The pilot study was done as part of the NOAA Marine
           Environmental Quality Assessment Program. The development of the EPIC computer
           package to be used in the PMEL analyses of sea level was supported by the NOAA
           Climate and Global Change Program, FOCI and other NOAA-funded programs at
           PMEL.


                                       5.0 Resource Requirements

           5.1 Program Budgets. Table 5-1 provides shows the distribution of FY91 funds and
           Table 5-2 is a proposed budget for FY92-FY95. Note that FY92 plans call for a
           substantial increase in funds to bring this element to parity with other components of
           the Coastal Ocean Program.

           5.2 Aircraft and Ship Requirements. PMEL Deep water tsunami system will be
           serviced in FY91 according to existing PMEL agreements.



                                              6.0 References

           Culliton, T.J., Warren, M.A., Goodspeed, T.R., Remer, D.G., Blackwell, C.M., and
           McDonough, J.J., 50 years of Population Change along the Nation's Coasts, 1960-
           2010, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April, 1990

           Mooers, CAK, ed. Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems, Draft Regort of a Plannin
           Workshog held 31 October to 2 November 1989 at the University of New Orleans,
           Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., 19 March 1990

           Nath, J.H., and Dean, R.G., eds, Natural Hazards and Research Needs in Coastal and
           Ocean Engineering NSF and ONR, November 1984

           National Research Council, Managing Coaatal Erosion 1990









             NSF Steering Committee, Coastal Physical Oceanography, CoPO, Towards a National
             Plan, Report of a Meeting of the Coastal Oceanography Physical Oceanography
             Community held January 23-26 in Gulf Park, Miss., NSF, 1989

             Seymour, R.J., and M.H. Sessions, "A Regional Network for Coastal Engineering
             Data," in Proceedinas, 15th Coastal Engineering Conference, ASCE, pp 60-71, 1976










































                                                    133










                              Table 5-1. FY91 COASTAL HAZARDS BUDGET

           TSUNAMI INUNDATION (OAR/PMEL)
             observations                                                      $50,000
             modeling                                                          $50,000
                                                              SUBTOTAL:        $100,000

           STORM SURGE (NWS/TDL)
             apply and update slosh:                                           $30,000
             extra-tropical model                                              $70,000
                                                              SUBTOTAL:        $100,000



           COASTAL WATER LEVEL AND COASTLINE VARIABILITY
                  PMEL: Develop climatology methodology for West Coast:        $30,000
                  NOS: Digitize West Coast Historical Water Level Data:        $70,000
                                                             SUBTOTAL:         $100,000


                                                                 TOTAL:        $300,000





























                                                     13@










                        Table 5-2. PROPOSED FY92-95 COASTAL HAZARDS BUDGET

                                        Funding by Fiscal Year In $ Millions


   PROGRAM ELEMENT                                   FY92      FY93     FY94      FY95


   Tsunami                                           0.50      0.75     0.8       0.9


   Storm Surges                                      0.33      0.85     1.2       1.5

   Water Level and Coastline Variability             0.17      1.0      2.0       2.5

   Coastal Winds and Waves                           0.30      1.5       2.0        2.1
                                  Total              1.3M      4.1      6.0        7.0




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