NOAA Coastal Ocean Program FY 1991 implementation plan contracts

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

NOAA Coastal Ocean Program

0
FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contracts

Volume 1

Nutrient-Enhanced Productivity
Estuarine Habitat Program
Toxic Chemical Contaminants
Coastal Hazards

COASTAL ZONE
INFORNIATION CENTER
LP

These plans represent agreements between the Assistant
Administrators and the Coastal Ocean Program Off ice concerning
the management and review processes, scientific and operational
procedure, products, and budget for implementing the NOAA
Coastal Ocean Program for FY 1991.

QH U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
541.5 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration I
C65 Washington, D.C.
N63
V.1
1991

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Nutrient-Enhanced Productivity ...................................... 1

NECOP .................................................... 3
ANICA .................................................... 35

Estuarine Habitat Program ......................................... 57

Toxic Chemical Contaminants ...................................... 79

Coastal Hazards ................................................ 115

HM-U COz%07z%L OCE&H PROMFI%H

NUTRIENT ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY

1. Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity - Mississippi/Atchafalaya
Rivers (NECOP-MAR)

2. Atmospheric Input to Coastal Areas (ANICA)

3. Monitoring of Nutrient Overenrichment and Harmful Algal Blooms (MONOHAB)

FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contract

This plan represents an agreement between the lead line office
Assistant Administrator and the Coastal Ocean Program Off ice
concerning the management and review processes, scientific and
operational procedures, products, and budget for implementing
this portion of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program in FY 1991.

Ned A. Ostenso, Assistant Administrator Date
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

D96ald Scavia, Director Date
N150AA Coastal Ocean Program
US Department of Commerce
NOAA coastal services Center Library
2234 South Hobson Avenue
Charles rn, SC 29405-2413

NUTRIENT ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY

FY 1991 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

This implementation plan covers three projects:

I. Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity
Mississippi/Atchafalaya Rivers (NECOP-MAR)

II. Atmospheric Nutrient Input to Coastal Areas (ANICA)

III. Monitoring of Nutrient Overenrichment and Harmful Algal Blooms
(MONOHAB)

Detai 1 s of the f i rst two projects are f ound i n the attached project
implementation plans. The third project will operate at a planning
level only in FY 1991. A separate request to the NCOPO for
Planning funds will be submitted later.

The budget allocation for FY 1991 is:

NECOP-MAR $1,950,000
ANICA $50,000

TOTAL $2,000,000

"Mississippi-
Atchafalaya
River
(MAR)
I ple entation
I Plan

FY 1991
NECOP

Contract Version
February 15, 1991
3

NUTRIENT-ENHANCED COASTAL OCEAN PRODUCTIVITY

MISSISSIPPI-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUTFLOW

FY1991
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
PREFACE

This implementation plan is for one project, the
Mississippi-Atchafalya Rivers (MAR) ouflow project, in the Nutrient
Enhanced Coastal Productivity (NECOP) Program within the Coastal Ocean
Program Nutrient Enhanced Productivitity (NEP) theme. The overall NEP
theme strategy is@ described in a separate document titled "Nutrient
Enhanced Productivity: Marine Fertilization and its Consequences. An
Action Plan for the 90's".

I. BACKGROUND

The availability of light and the input of 'limiting' nutrients are
the two primary factors which regulate the rate of production by plants
in the earth's biosphere. in the coastal oceans the rate of organic
matter production is primarily controlled by two factors. First, the
input of the nutrient in greatest demand, i.e., the 'limiting'
nutrient, determines the rate and magnitude of organic matter
production by pelagic primary producers, the phytoplankton. The
majority of studies in marine coastal waters, that is seaward of
riverine freshwater (salinities > 5 O/oo), have shown that nitrogen is
usually the nutrient which limits the size (biomass) of phytoplankton
populations (Ryther and Dunstan, 1971; D'Elia and Sanders, 1987).
Second, the turbidity of the water column determines the depth
interval, or the euphotic zone, through which the phytoplankton can fix
inorganic carbon. Since light extinction in coastal regions is
proportional to the level of suspended matter, the particulate load
places an upper limit, on primary production in estuaries, river
plumes and coastal regions (Cloern, 1988). These factors also
influence other marine populations in the coastal ocean, since the
phytoplankton form the base of the complex food web, supporting higher
marine organisms, including the commercially exploited finfish and
shellfish resources of the U.S.

Nutrients are supplied to the euphotic zone of the coastal oceans
in various ways. Nutrients are derived from the in situ decay of
organic material produced in the euphotic zone, predominantly through
the recycling of phytoplankton biomass by other organisms. Recycling
occurs through such processes as grazing by zooplankton, excretion of
dissolved matter, and by the death and decay of grazers and organisms
of higher trophic levels. Nutrient input to the coastal ocean also
occurs by wind or current-driven upwelling, where nutrients regenerated
in the deep ocean by remineralization of sinking organic matter at
depth, are returned to the euphotic zone in coastal environments. A
third mechanism of nutrient input, which is the concern of this
program, is the nutrient supply to coastal environments from the

continents. These inputs most commonly occur in river water, or as
direct run-off from land. Nutrients supplied via these routes include
those derived naturally from decaying terrestrial material, and those
contributed from anthropogenic inputs, either as direct discharge or as
runoff, including agricultural activities. The impact of nutrients from
anthropogenic sources on the coastal oceans is the specific focus of
this program.

Evidence is mounting that anthropogenic inputs contribute large
quantities of limiting, nutrients to the coastal oceans. The
increased productivity can result in delete-rious effects on the quality
of our coastal waters, particularly when phytoplankton production
exceeds the capacity of higher trophic organims to assimilate the fixed
organic carbon. A worldwide comparison of riverine nitrogen inputs
from regions of high population density and development, versus areas
of low population density and development, has shown that
nitrate-nitrogen is generally 10 to 30-fold greater in rivers flowing
through developed regions. Temporal increases also are evident as
population increases and industrial development occurs. In the U.S.,
the concentration of nitrate in the Mississippi River below New Orleans
has increased from about 1 mg/l in the late 1950's to 2.2 mg/l in the
early 1980's, or ca. 50 to > 150 ug at/1 (Fig. 1, from Turner et al.,
1987). within the upper Chesapeake Bay the average annual t6-tal
nitrogen, phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations have doubled
during the period 1965-1980 (Price et al., 1985). There is evidence
that nutrient inputs to our coastal oceans are steadily increasing even
in less-developed U.S. coastal regions. For example, the nitrate -
nitrogen concentration within the Altamaha River, Georgia, has tripled
from 10 to 30 ug-atT/1 since 1960 (Fig. 2, from Walsh et al.,
1981).

our understandimg of the effects of increasing nutrient input, and
the consequent stimulation of primary biological productivity, is
limited, and the full impact of enhanced production can not be
predicted at present. In general, sufficient light and nutrients are
present in the water column during the summer such that estuarine and
coastal phytoplankton are able to fix large amounts of carbon; the
majority is ingested by grazers. This particulate matter, mainly as
fecal pellets, is oxidized by microbial organisms after it sinks into
deeper waters. During these summer months the coastal waters are often
stratified into a shallow, warm surface layer and cooler subsurface
layer; the surface mixed layer can exceed the depth of the euphotic
zone. The density stratification limits the re-aeration of subsurface
waters from the oxygen-sufficient surface layer, where oxygen is
introduced from the atmosphere and from phytoplankton photosynthesis.
Oxygen concentrations in -the deeper waters subsequently decline to
levels where aerobic respiration cannot be maintained, with decreases
in commercially important resources (Price et al., 1985).

while the sequence of events during episodes of hypoxia (low
dissolved oxygen) and anoxia (no detectable dissolved oxygen) are
fairly well documented in estuarine waters, as for the Chespeake Bay
(see officer et al., 1984), our coastal waters also appear to be
developing hypoxic areas. observation from the Louisiana continental

SUMMER NITRATE
Y=16424.B 16-73 0.004 X2

mg N2
N03

1960 YEAR 1970 19BO

Figure 1. April July nitrate concentrations (mg/1 N03-N) in
the Mississippi River at St. Francisville, Louisiana
from 1955 to 1984. From Turner et al. (1987).

TIME SERIES - NITRATE FLUX

MISSISSIPPI RIVER

120
120

60.
60

0 0
JA J 0 j A J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 .0. A J 0 j A J 0 j A J 0 J A 1 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 j
1954 1955 it 56 1957 t19 58 1959 1960 1961 1 962 1963

120 120
60' IL
8 60
OL 01 - 0
A J'O j A J 0 j A j 0 j A J 0 1 J 0 j A J 0 J A J 0 j A j 0 1 A J 0 j A J 0 1
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

150
120@-
90
60
30
0
L J 0 i A .1 0 jA J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 j A 1 0 J A 7 0 j 0
1974 1975 1976 1977 197a 1979 1900

A time series of nitrate content (ug-at/1) at 450 km upstream of
the mour-h cf the Mississippi River draining "developed" areas.
Fro,-,. Walsh et a!. (1981).

ALTAMAHA RIVER (GEORGIA)

60 60

30 30
0 JA j 0 j A j ' @L@JA J 0 J A j 0 1 A 1 '44* LA* A -J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 A J 01 0
195? 1956 M9 its& t%7 t*60 #971

so 60

30- 30
.:* -. *1L
tj - - - - - - -
10
J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 J A A J 0 J A 0 J A J 0 J A J 0 1
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 f977 1979 1979
A time series of the nitrate content (ug-at/1) at so 100 km
upstream of -the mouth of the Altamaha River draining undeveloped
areas. From Walsh et al. (1981).

Fiaure 2.

shelf (Turner et al., 1987) and the New York Bight (Swanson and
Sinderman, 1979TinUir-cate that the frequency of summer hypoxia events
is increasing. The problem is not unique to North American coastal
waters, for long-term observations in the Adriatic Sea (Justic 1987)
and the outer waters of the Baltic (Andersson and Rydberg, 1986) show
similar trends. Hypoxia and anoxia can lead to the death of the
benthic marine biota within the impacted area and the displacement of
mobile, or migratory, species. Within Louisiana coastal waters several
important components of the macrobenthot population, such as shrimp,
crabs and demersal fish, are at very low densitites, or absent from
hypoxic waters during the summer (Gaston-@-1985; Renaud, 1986).

Aside from hypoxia/anoxia events, the stimulation of the biological
primary production of our coastal oceans by anthropogenic nutrient
inputs may well have other consequences that need to be determined.
This enhancement of productivity may impact our coastal ecosystems by
altering phytoplankton species occurrence and abundance. Such
litative, as well as quantitative, changes in primary producers can
ave serious impacts on the herbivorous species that form the base of
our commercial fisheries. As an example, the success of commercially
important larval fishes in the first feeding stage has been found to
depend upon the existence of specific phytoplankton species that are
readily ingested by larvae (Lasker and Sherman, 1981).

Finally, the input of significant amounts of anthropogenic
nutrients to the coastal regions has a potentially important role in
climate and global change. At present large-scale global models cannot
assess the degree to which the oceans remove anthropogenic C02 from the
earth's atmosphere. In addition to the physical absorption of C02 from
the atmosphere at high latitudes, oceani-c biota may play a role by
photosynthetic fixation of C02 and subsequent%transport as organic
carbon to deep ocean waters with an ultimate burial in sediments. The
extent of-this 'biological pump-in oceanic waters must be quantified
if reliable, predictive models-,of climate cha*ge are to be developed
(Moore and Bolin, 1987). The role of oceanic biota in the sequestering
of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere requires the utilization of new'
nutrients, rather than those released by the decay and recycling of
marine organic material in situ. Otherwise, the rate at which carbon
is fixed is limited by the rate at which-organic carbon and nitrogen is
recycled from that previously fixed by photosynthesis. In summary, a
source of 'new' nitrogenous nutrients must be introduced into the
oceanic surface waters if carbon dioxide is to be fixed in excess of
that already present in the oceans. Man's input of large quantities of
nutrients into the coastal oceans may be a major source of the required
'new' nutrients on a global basis. Present estimates of the-impact of
such nutrient sources are widely disputed (cf. Walsh et al., 1981; Rowe
et al., 1986). Research is necessary to clarify the r6lfe of coastal
oceans in the long-term 'burial' of anthropogenic C02 in ocean margins,
and its subsequent burial in deep water following transport offshore by
storms or mass wasting of shelf and slope sediments.

11 OBJECTIVES.

The goals of NOAA's environmental quality coastal program are 1.)
to better understand the influences of natural and anthropogenic
activities on the quality of the coastal environment and its resources,
such that, 2.) a better predictive capability is achieved in order to
assess the results of society's !activities within the context of
natural variation. The key objectives- of the research program on
nutrient-enhanced coastal ocean productivity are to:

* Determine quantitatively the-degree to which coastal primary
productivity has been enhanced in areas receiving high terrestrial
nutrient inputs.

* Determine the impact on water quality (especially dissolved oxygen
demand) of this enhanced productivity.

* Determine the fate of the carbon fixed in coastal areas of enhanced
productivity and its impact on living resources within the coastal
ocean and upon the global marine carbon cycle.

III. APPROACH.

The central hypothesis of this research program is: TERRESTRIAL
NUTRIENT INPUTS HAVE ENHANCED COASTAL OCEAN PRODUCTIVITY WITH
SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON COASTAL OCEAN WATER QUALITY, LIVING RESOURCE
YIELDS, AND THE GLOBAL MARINE CARBON CYCLE. Over the long term the
intent of this program is to conduct research subprograms in areas
receiving differing leveis of terrestrial nutrient inputs (including
anthropogenic inputs) and under various physi-cal--regimes.

The coastal ocean productivity research program will contain the
following major technical components:

1) A physical oceanographic program to determine the coastal ocean
circulation and buoyancy flux. The objective is to observe the the
physical forcings which control nutrient distributions and primary
production. Time scales that must be considered include storm event,
tidal, diurnal, seasonal and interannual. The horizontal circulation
and mixing will be quantified as necessary for understanding processes
such as transport and dispersion of nutrients and the various plankton
communities. The vertical structure determines the stability of the
water column and consequent biological productivity, particle
transport, and controls hypoxia/anoxia events. Interannual variability
will be reconstructed from historical environmental data records and
sediment cores. An understanding of this interannual variability is
important to determine the extent to which anthropogenic impacts have
affected coastal systems, and whether changes due to these impacts can
be documented. At present the historical record is primarily based
upon sporadic observations of biota, chemical distributions and hypoxia
within the past few decades, with the earliest records from 1935
(Richards, 1957). A more complete sequence of past events may be
constructed from available cores (approx. 70 AOML piston, box and

gravity cores, and 36 LUMCON box cores from the Delta area) and perhaps
remote SST imagery for the past two decades.

2) A chemical/biological program to measure the distribution of
nutrients and organic carbon distributions in the coastal ocean areas
as well as the primary and secondary productivity of the study area as
a function of space and time. Research will be conducted on the
processes which link anthropogenic nutrient fluxes to primary
productivity, and on trophic structure within food webs as it is
altered in response to increased productivity. Additional studies will
relate enhanced productivity to parti'cle--transport and export, and the
occurrence of subsequent hypoxic events.

3) A remote sensing program utilizing satellite infrared (SST) and
ocean color (CAMS)'measurements to provide synoptic coverage of coastal
ocean productivity over extended space and time periods. Remote sensing
is a cost-effective method to provide synoptic estimates of surface
temperature and ocean color in oceanic areas. Additional remote sensing
capabilities utilizing optical, and acoustic systems will be deployed
from ships and drifters to complement--the observations from satellite
systems and provide reliable ground truth comparisons.

4) A modeling program. Models will be developed, or adapted, with an
objective of guiding the research effort and providing predictive
capabilities for management. Models are extremely useful to researchers
in formulating hypotheses which can be examined or tested in the field
during process-oriented studies. Mixed layer and circulation models are
required as a basis for understanding and constraining the primary
production and food web models. The models should be utilized in order
to achieve a predictive capability for assessing the fmpact of nutrient
variability on organic matter production and consilmptrbn and, finally,
upon particle transport and oxygen demand.

IV. INITIAL STUDY AREA - THE MISSISSIPPI/ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUTFLOW AND
ADJACENT LOUISIANA SHELF REGION

Given the objectives and central hypothesis of the Nutrient
Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity component of the NOAA Coastal Ocean
program, the initial study area should satisfy the following criteria:

Criterion #1 - A clear terrestrial nutrient signal.

Criterion #2 - Resultant nut *rient-enhanced productivity of significant
magnitude. '

Criterion #3 - A demonstrable impact of enhanced production on coastal
environmental quality.

Criterion #4 - Renewable resources of significant value.

On this basis we have-chosen the initial area of study as the Louisiana
Shelf which receives outflow from the Mississippi River Delta and
Atchafalaya River (which carries 30% of the total volume of the
Mississippi) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The impact of this

/ 10

discharge occurs in the adjacent shelf waters. Each of the above
criteria is discussed separately in terms of the designated study area.

The Mississippi is the sixth largest river system in the world in
terms of water discharge, and the largest in the U.S. It and its
tributaries drain more than 40% of the continental U.S. and contribute
65% of the average annual runoff into the Gulf of Mexico (Moody, 1967).
The volume of suspended sediment discharge has been estimated to have
an annually range of 344 to 544 mill-ion tons, in addition to an
estimated annual bedload discharge of 136 million tons (Holeman, 1968).
These volumes make the Mississippi th*e seventh largest river in the
world in terms of sediment discharge. most of this water and sediment
is discharged through three major passes of the Mississippi Delta
(Figure 3), i.e., Southwest Pass, South Pass and Pass a Loutre (Holle,
1967). Much ofithe'river sediment load is deposited in shallow areas
around the Delta, contributing to very high sedimentation rates (up to
several cms per year). This rapid sedimentation results in rapid burial
which has preserved the geologic and geochemical history of the last
several centuries. This history can be readily examined in cores, as
evident in the study of annual lead deposition within sediments from
the Delta (Trefry et al., 1985).

Criterion #1 - A clear terrestrial nutrient signal: There is ample
evidence that the outflow of the Mississippi River is enhancing the
input of nutrients to the adjacent Louisiana shelf. The nutrient
loading in the Mississippi river, especially in terms of nitrate, has
increased markedly since the mid 1950's (Turner et al., 1987; Walsh,
1981; Kempe, 1988). As stated above, and illustFa-ti-d in Figure 1,
during the period from 1955 to 1984 the nitrate concentration of river
waters at St. Francisville, LA has more than doubled, increasing from
about 50 to > 150 ug at/l. It is reasonable to as.@ume that this
increased nitrate-N has an anthropogenic source, given its timing and
the extensive agricultural and industrial development that has occured
within the Mississippi drainage basin. As early as 1971, Everett (1971)
reported that in the 241 km upstream of New Orleans, more than 18
million kilograms of dissolved solids were added to the river daily
from industrial discharges. This amounted to 7% (at average high flow)
to 20% (at average low flow) of the total dissolved river load.

Criterion 2 - Resultant nutrient-enhanced productivity of significant
magnitude: Primary production within the Mississippi Outflow plume has
been found to range from 1 to 5 9C/m2/day (Carder et al., 1989). This
is a significant level of productivity, as is evident by a comparison
with the highly-productive Peru coastal upwelling system. In that
ecosybtem rates of 1 gC/m2/day are found near shore, where upwelled
nitrate first reaches the surface, with rates of 9 to 10 gC/m2/day
observed offshore, following sufficient time for the primary producers
to attain maximum rates (Walsh, 1983).

Criterion #3 - A demonstrable impact of enhanced production on coastal
environmental quality: Possibly the most significant impact of
nutrient-enhanced productivity in the Mississippi Outflow/Louisiana
Shelf region is bottom water hypoxia during the summer. In the winter
the shelf waters are stirred and mixed by wind events on time scales of

290
30

AO
60

Barolorlo Boy
pas a Lou"

290 Southwest Sout,
Pass pass
00

280
30

1000 Dtplh contours In rn

90000 890304 69000
to
Bdr4OO\rO e

Figure 3. The three major passes in the Mississippi Delta whic
account for most of the water and sediment discharqe

3 to 8 days (Dagg, 1988). Hence bottom hypoxic.regions are typically
observed only between April through October. Regions of low dissolved
oxygen concentrations begin to develop along the Louisiana Shelf west
of the outflow plume in the spring, when the coastal waters begin to
stratify, and thereby limit the re-aeration of bottom waters. Hypoxic
water masses (oxygen concentrations <2.0 mg/1) form during the summer
as stratification intensifie-s. As oxygen concentrations decrease, the
aereal extent of the hypoxic regions expands, finally dissipating in
the fall as density stratification weakens in response to increased
turbulence. Necessary conditions forthe development of bottom hypoxia
on the shelf are postulated as: high.rates--of 'river discharge
trasnporting nutrients to the shelf,--phytoplankton blooms (providing
oxidizable organic matter to the bottom waters), and water column
stratification. The argument for this is developed as follows:

- The Mississippi River is the major source of 'new' nutrients to the
shelf waters during the spring and summer. During the winter wind
events, which provide energy for reaeration, also result in nearshore
upwelling (Dagg, 1988).

- The high levels of primary production in Mississippi plume waters
(>300 gC/m2/yr) is supported by the enhanced nutrient input.

- The existence of high levels of phytoplankton degradation products
(phaeopigments) in hypoxic regions suggest that hypoxia results from
high rates of microbial community respirition (Turner and Allen,
1982), which is supported by the recycling of phytoplankton biomass.

Rabalais (1987; and in press) indicates that the relationship
between surface chlorophyll levels and bottom hypoxia is not
straightforward, despite initial attempts to corr6-late the two by
remote imagery (Leming and Stuntz, 1984). In fact, in 1985 and 1986
there was no obvious correlation between surface chlorophyll levels and
bottom oxygen conditions. Under conditions of severe hypoxia pigment
concentrations in bottom waters were generally higher than in overlying
surface waters. This suggests that consumption of oxygen in bottom
waters by the microbial community respiration was supported by primary
production in the Shelf surface waters; however, the source of organic
matter may-have been the nearshore waters, or the Mississippi plume to
the east.

Although it is now clear that the Louisiana shelf ecosystem is
adversely affected by development of hypoxic conditions, the situation
may intensify. Turner et al. (1987) note that phytoplankton production
beyond the light-limiteK, _15u_rbid river plume is primarily nitrogen-
limited. They therefore hypothesize that a continued increase in
nutrient inputs from the Mississippi (Figures 1 and 2). and
consequently any future increase in 'new, productivity on the shelf,
will result in higher inputs of phytoplankton carbon to shelf bottom
waters, with a potential expansion of hypoxic regions.

Criterion #4 - Renewable resources of significant value: In addition to
the extensive, non-renewable mineral resources (e.g., petroleum and
sulfur) which must be exploited, the U.S. Gulf Coast has extensive

LOUISIANA

lop,

7,j

it
11ei
%

19 8 5 1986

Figure 4. A-reas of the Louisiana shelf where hypoxic bottom waters
werefound in 1985 and 1986. Station locations indicated
by closed circles for 1986 stations only- From Rabalais
(1967)

renewable resources and environments which have a significant
commercial value. Approximately 30% of the U.S. fisheries catch (in
both landing tonnage and dollar value) comes from the Gulf of Mexico.
The highest dollar value fishery (shrimp) and the highest tonnage
fishery (Gulf menhaden) in the U.S. exists in the Gulf. In 1977 there
were approximately 30,000 full and part-time commercial fishermen in
the U.S. Gulf States, with nearly 5,000 fishing vessels exceeding 5 net
tons displacement (French, 1981). Altliough.harder to quantify, the
recreational fishery has a similar value.. The coastline and coastal
waters of the Gulf serve as an important recreational area for a
significant portion of the U.S. popula@iofi-,,--population growth in the
five U.S. Gulf Coast states has exceeded all projections and is
expected to continue through at least the year 2,000. Much of the
lucrative recreational fishery is located within the shelf areas
influenced by the Aississippi/Atchafalaya outflow. This region will be
directly influenced by any future impact of nutrient-enhanced
productivity, whether desirable or not. While hypoxia has a clearly
adverse impact on fisheries, enhanced productivity per se could have
potentially beneficial effects. our current understanding of the
linkage among the physical regime, productivity and ecosystem response
is presently too incomplete to realistically predict these impacts.

V. Key Research Questions.

The following series of questions delineate key research areas to, be
addressed as research activities under the Nutrient Enhanced Coastal
ocean Productivity program. The questions represent the consensus of
approximately thirty NOAA and academic scientists.

.Key Question #1: Does a historical record exist within sediments which
indicates that the productivity of Shelf waters has increased on time
scales commensurtae with the historical record of anthrpogenic nutrient
loading?

Key Question #2: What is the temporal and spatial scale of physical
and biological variability in riverine outflow regions of the northern
Gulf of Mexico?

Key Question #3: What is the production rate, distribution and fate of
biogenic carbon in riverine plumes and the shelf on seasonal-to-annual
time scales in the northern Gulf of Mexico?

Key Question #4: What physical and biological processes regulate the
flux and chemical composition of carbon, and concentrations of
nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon, as well as suspended particulate
matter, from the riverine outflow in the northern Gulf of Mexico?

Key Question #5: Has increased nutrient loading in the Mississippi
Atchafalaya outflow contributed to the occurrence of hypoxic conditions
on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf?

VI. Program Plan:

A. Retrospective Analysis

1. Sedimentary Record. An underlying hypothesis of the proposed
program is that shelf productivity has been enhanced as a result of
anthropogenic loading from riverine outflow. However,.no direct measure
of productivity exists for northern Gulf shelf waters over the past few
decades, although a large number of unpublished pigment measurements
have been taken. Since shelf sediments are deposited at rates of 10 -
20 cm y-l in the -region immediately izpacted by the Delta outflow, the
temporal records of sedimentary biogeochemical parameters may provide
the sole record of past productivity, or anoxic events, on spatial and
temporal scales commensurate with the'nutrient records from the
Mississippi River.

Following an initial survey of core libraries, individual cores will be
selected on the ba'sis of coherent geochronology (by Pb-210,
Pu-239/Cs-137 dating) from various depositional sites on the
shelf/slope for analysis of biogeochemical constituents. The
geochronology will ensure that the selected cores contain a coherent
annual record over the past few decades, as previously successfully
demonstrated for lead (Trefry et al., 1985). Given that rapid sediment
transfer off-shelf can occur by mi-ss wasting and slumping during high
energy periods, such as storms, the dating is necessary to permit a
temporal and spatial record of biogeochemical constituents to be
compiled. The constituents examined would ideally serve as Ibiomarkers,
of past events. The temporal and spatial records of these indices may
potentially reveal the influence of anthropogenic nutrient loading over
the shelf. An increase in productivity indices which parallel the
documented increase in nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi
River, for example, would imply a causal link between between the two
parameters. In addition, plankton fossil records may reveal changes in
community structure which could reflect alteration's in dissolved
inorganic N:P:Si ratios as river outflow composition changed due to
anthropogenic influences.

B. Productivity of the Shelf/Plume System

1. Process Studies. An understanding of the hierarchy of physical
processes which control the distribution of nutrients, particulates,
and optical properties in river plumes, shelf, slope and ultimately the
open Gulf of Mexico, is a prerequisite in quantifying the influence of
anthropogenic nutrient input on primary production. In broad terms the
processes which must be examined are those which control 1) the
dilution of the river plumes and mixing of plume and shelf waters, 2)
regional variability in stratification, plume dimensions and shelf,
slope waters, and 3) the advection and diffusion of oxygen and
particulate materials from riverine through slope water regimes. These
physical processes span a continuum of spatial and-temporal scales (see
Figure 5), and must be quantified by a field program to observe the
variability in physical parameters. The primary objective of these
studies is to provide a description of the influence of physical
processes on the fate of nutrients, oxygen, carbon and particulates
within a fluid parcel a-s it progresses from a riverine source to the
offshore waters of the open Gulf of Mexico. The field program
incorporates shipboard drifting, and moored instrumentation.

Observations of the seasonal variability in the density (temperature,
salinity structure by CTD casts), optical (beam transmissometry,
submarine light spectrum) and flow (u, v by acoustic doppler current
profiler) patterns will be made during seasonal cruises. The first of
these will occur in JUly-AUguSt 1990 and will involve three ships (NOAA
Ship MALCOMB BALDRIGE, R/V GYRE from Texas A&M University, R/V PELICAN
from the Louisiana Marine Sciences Consortium, LUMCON) and one
aircraft (NASA Lear Jet). The second cruise will occur in winter-spring
1991. During the winter-spring cruise in FY 91 emphasis will be placed
on observing the impact of high volume discharge on the shelf.

Synoptic measurements of chemical pa-rameters, dissolved oxygen,
particulates and pigments will be conducted on all cruises to determine
cause-effect relationships. Surface wind stress and solar irradiance
will be recorded A sea, and throughout the year at shore facilities.
The field program in FY 91 will consist of'a 'spring' cruise to measure
physical and optical parameters on transects between 880 and 940 W from
the nearshore to the slope regime. The transects will be oriented from
plumes to offshore waters parallel to the main flow field, as well as
perpendicular to the major axis of river plumes. It is proposed that
the specific orientation of the transects for each cruise will rely, in
part, on the most recent satellite imagery of the SST field. These
transects will provide a more synoptic examination of the area than is
possible with the drifting platforms, and provide physical and
biological oceanographers with an opportunity to make synoptic
observations on the sub-mesoscale. This is necessary to establish
causal mechanisms between the physical environment and ecosystem
responses.

An important consideration is to quantify the extreme variability
in the optical fields across the shelf. Since-proctuctivity within
p-lumes is initially light-limited, due to the high SPM content, the
spatial and temporal distribtuion of productivity and nutrient
utilization is regulated in the near field by light availability. The
measurements are planned as an integral part of the field observation
program, by both shipboard and drifting platforms, with emphasis on the
plume and shelf regimes. A series of Lagrangian drifters, capable of
measuring submarine irradiance, temperature and pigment fluorescence
profiles at predetermined time intervals will be launched during the
cruise to supplement the shipboard observations.

Prior studies have shown that the level of productivity in the
nearshore plumes is proportional to algal biomass and light
availability, (Lohrenz, et al., submitted). Further offshore the rate
of nutrient supply controTs the level of production. A suite of
observations by academic scientists has shown that over the course of
the past few decades a decrease in turbidity (and dissolved silica) in
the outflow areas, (attributed to reduced SPM loading of the
Mississippi due to damming upriver) has resulted in an improvement in
the light regime in nearshore waters. with the increase in light
availability and concomitant production, the nutrient which 'limits,
production has potentially shifted from nitrogen to silicon during some
periods of the year, e.g. siliceous organisms such as diatoms become
silica-limited at levels of 1 - 2 uM silica (Q. Dortch, pers. com.).

L (log km) Annual
5 Interannual
'Variability r
4 Plumes \IJ -
(Weather) Climatic
3 ...... .. Variability

Seasonal
0 Variability
-2 Fronts, Halocline

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
T (log day)

Figure 5. A schematic flow diagram illustrating the temporal evolution
of a near-surface fluid parcel and the associated horizontal
spatial scales of various processes as it progresses from a
riverine source to the 'open Gulf' (i.e., souce to fate).
Advection is assumed at ca. 12 cm/s with dimensions in the
near field corresponding to less than a 10:1 dilution and
dimensions in the far field at greater than 10:1.

1012

These conditions often occur during periods of high productivty. This
shift in the nutrient species limiting primary production, and the
relaxation of light stress, has important implications for the trophic
structure of the shelf ecosystem, and ultimately the fate of biogenic
carbon, as discussed in the section on Carbon Flux.

The relationships between nutrien 'ts and productivity on the shelf
will be addressed by determining how present levels of production are
coupled to present rates of seasonal-to-interannual nutrient supply.
This is accomplished by productivity and nutrient observations during
the field program at different seasons (itages of river flow) to
monitor the spatial patterns in primary production, (by 14C uptake),
algal biomass and species composition. Routine sampling of nutrient
concentrations (dissolved forms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon),
are made on thb transects from 880 to 94 W. Since 'new' production in
this area is supported by nutrients imported from riverine and runoff
sources, as well as from deep water by upwelling, new, nitrogen
includes not only nitrate (as in the open ocean) but also reduced forms
of nitrogen. Thus it is necessary to monitor the utilization of
several dissolved inorganic nitrogen species across the plume/shelf
regime.

2. Models. Two modeling efforts are included within NECOP, with
initial box models relying on existing data of physical, optical, and
chemical-biological parameters. The results of the first box models
are employed to identify which parameters and regions in the shelf
should be emphasized in the field program, and guide in the design of
sampling protocol. The goal of the modeling effort examining physical
processes and hypoxia is to identify the dominant space and time scales
of variability for parameters -_ which contribute to,- processes associated
with the development of low oxygen waters. Suff'icient data exists from
the LASER program to begin moffeling efforts examining the linkage
between changes in the qualitative nutrient composition and the
taxonomic composition of primary producers. A second generation
product will be the generation of diagnostic models to be used by
individual investigators for their particular research questions.
Ultimately it should be possible to predict the dominant space/time
scales for the various physical, chemical, and biological fields, as
well as the dominant processes regulating the distribution and
variability of these fields from simulation models in the latter phase
of the program.

C. Hypoxia Research & Modeling

1. Time Series, Processes and Im2act Studies. The impact of extensive
R_ __I@to Texas is one of the
hypoxic areas on t e shelf from Mississippi
potentially most important consequences of enhanced coastal
productivity in the United States (Turner et al., 1988). The research
on hypoxia is therefore intimately linked f-o B-oth the Productivity and
Carbon Flux components. Hypoxia contributes to shrimp mortality, and
occurs during the spawning season of shrimp. It may alter migration
patterns, resulting in'a local concentration of commercially important
fish populations in the nearshore waters, making them more accessible
to fishermen (Ijubilees').' The NECOP program includes two components

involved with research on hypoxia; one for monitoing and the second
addressing the relationship of hypoxia to biota. The time series field
program will provide a more refined view of hypoxia development than
has been possible in the past, and is to include observations of
vertical dissolved oxygen profiles in conjunction with CTD casts, and
ancillary biological parameters (pigments, productivity) from a small
ship. Process studies will be conducted in concert with the time series
observations in the field. One componrnt is examining measurements of
community respiration, both in the water column and benthic
environments. The rate of oxygen consumption will be measured over
seasonal period@s' at selected sites to-der-i-ve oxygen utilization
parameters for validating predictive models. An assessment of the
impact of hypoxia on living marine resources is an integral part of
this research. This research assess the influence of low oxygen
concentrations-4on 'commercially important demersal fish and shellfish
(especially shrimp) populations.

2. Modeling. A primary objective of the modeling components with
respect to hypoxia is to achieve a predictive capability allowing
successful forecasting of the timing and spatial distribution of
events. As in the productivity component, diagnostic models are
dveloped to assist individual principal investigators in the analysis
of their data. More advanced modeling efforts, probably during the
outyears of the program, will incorporate advective fluxes of oxygen,
carbon and respiration rates to derive a predictive capability for
oxygen distributions on the shelf. This will require the combined
input of physical parameters, productivity, and carbon flux (advective
and sinking) at various locations on the shelf. When combined with the
DO utilization rates, the efforts should be capable of predicting the
temporal development and decay of hypoxia at specific sites.

D. Carbon Flux

1. Process Studies. The fate of organic carbon in the plume, shelf and
slope waters and the underlying sediments is of utmost importance in
determining the linkage between anthropogenic nutrient inputs and the
impact of enhanced production. The research program examining the fate
of carbon can be focused on two sets of linked processes: the
utilization of photosynthetically-fixed carbon by consumers and the
fate of organic carbon sinking from the euphotic zone to sediments.
These processes are linked by the 'bio-packaging' of phytoplankton
carbon sinking to the bottom by grazing herbivores (Nelsen and Trefry,
1986). A complete understanding the cycling of organic carbon by
consumers also includes studies of dissolved carbon utilization by
microbial organisms as well as quantifying the micro- and
macro-zooplankton abundance, biomass, and grazing-fecal pellet
production rates. If feasible, the abundance and distribution of
zooplankton should be related to the growth and survival of juvenile
fish, particularly the commercially important species which are
examined in relation to hypoxia (see above). The microbial heterotroph
and zooplankton studies are to -be made in conjunction with the seasonal
productivity studies in the field.

A specific task is to determine the quantity of phytoplankton carbon

"0269

which is unassimilated (excreted as dissolved carbon and fecal
pellets); the particulate fraction represents an important source of
carbon input to the sediments. The fate of carbon in the benthos will
is quantified by measurements of nutrient regeneration, benthic
respiration and carbon deposition to sediments, with particular
emphasis on hypoxic areas.

Another NECOP component is examining rates of particulate carbon
flux in plume and shelf waters by floating sediment traps for
short-term fluxes. The rates of carbon flux to sediments provides an
indication of 1) the carbon source suppo-iiiing oxygen demand in benthic
hypoxic regions and 2) the potential for carbon export from the shelf
to the slope and deep sea' for prolonged burial. The quantitative
assessment of this flux serves to assess whether or not enhanced
productivity oh the shelf is an important carbon sink for long-term
burial of anthropogenic carbon in deep sediments (e.g., Walsh et al.,
1981).

Sediment resuspension during short-term events, such as winter
storms or hurricanes, and mass wasting are transport processes which
could rapidly move a significant quant@4t-y-ef biogenic carbon from
nearshore regions to the deep sea for long-term burial. A potentially
important process for sediment, and organic carbon, transport offshelf
is via particle transport down the Mississippi Canyon, as suggested by
the fact that sedimentation rates in the Canyon are two-fold greater
than on the adjacent shelf to the east. The potential offshore
transport of carbon from the shelf to slope Idepocenters, is being
evaluated as an important objective in quantifying carbon flux.

2. Modelinq. Two modeling approaches are relating the fate of carbon
in 'Ehe plume/shelf system, with both efforts orienting the resultq-to
productivity and hypoxia. The first efforts are concentrating on
assembling the existing data for box models which, as in the
productivity and hypoxia components, are guiding hypotheses development
and desi-gn of field experiments.

E. FY 1990-91 Field Program:

The field effort for the first year (FY1990) is concentrating on
process studies and hypoxic region development. A three ship study is
planned for July-August, 1990, including the N/S BALDRIGE, the R/V Gyre
and the R/V PELICAN. A series of overflights from a NASA jet with
Airborne Ocean Color Imagers (AOCI and CAMS) will supplement the
synoptic view of the Mississippi River plume and contiguous hypoxic
regions. Prior surveys for monitoring the region during State of
Louisiana funded LASER cruises will provide information on the design
of the specific field sampling plan. The overall objective is to
provide a description of the buoyancy flux and nutrient input to the
coastal waters from the Mississippi River. Emphasis will be placed on
the input of nutrients and organic carbon from the Mississippi River to
the shelf. The specific FY1990 program components within NECOP are
listed in Table 1 with 'a brief description of the research objectives.
These basic program elements will be maintained in FY1991 and
additional funding will be focussed on developing an effort in nitrogen

uptake into lowest trophic levels and a field program in the
Atchafalaya outflow and Atchafalaya Bay.

VXX. PROGRAM PRODUCTS

FY91 Products.

Program products during FY 91 will be the result of the initial
field experiment-(summer, 1990) and the F-Y 91 cruise (February-March,
1991) and are listed below. The scientific value and validity of these
products will be judged as high when.resu@ts are published in peer
reviewed journals. The social value-will be measured in terms how
successfully they add to the synthesis of useful information resulting
from the program and recommendations emanating therefrom.

Documentation of the intensity and areal extent of hypoxia on the
Louisiana Shelf during summer, 1990. To be presented at a PI meeting
in late 1991 and concomitant report.

* Evaluation historical data sets and core data to provide a
historical record of carbon flux, hypoxia and nutrient inputs to the
Shelf. Estimates of seasonal and interannual variability will be
assessed based on the feasibility of 'biomarkers', and preliminary
correlations attempted for relating these patterns to environmental
records. To be presented at a PI meeting in late 1991 and concomitant
report.

* A preliminary understanding of the physical, chemical, and
biological aspects of Plume/Shelf water interactions from monitoring
and process-ofiented observations duringthe summer months. To be
presented at a--PI meeting in late 1991 and concomitant report.

Initial results from an ecological models utilizing existing data
and observations from the summer, 1990 cruise and spring, 1991 cruise
to quantitatively examine linkages among nutrient inputs, primary
productivity, particle transport and oxygen demand on the Shelf. To be
presented at a PI meeting in late 1991 and concomitant report.

B. Long-Term Products

* Quantifying the impact of terrestrial nutrients on the productivity
of our coastal oceans.

* A capability to predict the impact that nutrient control strategies
are likely to have on productivity.

A capability to predict the likelihood of hypoxi.c/anoxic events as
a function of physical, chemical, and biological parameters in the
coastal oceans.

* Quantitatively determine the role which the coastal oceans play in
the marine carbon cycle, and an estimate of the flux of biogenic
carbon to the deep sea from these oceans.

The development of new measurement and modeling capabilities in
NOAA, and the oceanographic community as a whole.

VIII. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND REVIEW

A. Program Management Goals

1. Meet program objectives as_ presented in NOAA Coastal Ocean
Program Plan and Program Implementation Plan.

2. Support the best science possible.

3. Encourage,large, interdisciplinary proposals rather than small,
individual principle investigator efforts.

4. Encourage cooperative efforts between OAR laboratory scientists
and Sea Grant university researchers.

5. Support a multiyear research effort.

6. Ensure that funded research is completed and useful products
produced.

B. Progra Management Plan

1. Program Management Committee

The Program Management Committee (PMC) will be the senior
coordinating group in the program management structure. The PMC
will report to the Assistant Administrator of OAR or his designee
who will have ultimate approval authority over program technical
and spending plans. The committee shall be comprised of three
members:

(a) A Senior Member of OAR Headquarters.

(b) A Senior ERL Scientist.

The Program Management Committee will:

(a) Appoint the Technical Advisory Committee.

(b) Issue the annual Call for Proposals.

(d) Develop the annual program plan.

(e) Coordinate interagency cooperation, e.g.* with the MMS
Gulf of Mexico physical oceanography program.

(f) Coordinate intra-NOAA and intra-COP cooperati'on, e.g.,
cooperation with other COP elements such as CoastWatch,
Coastal Fisheries Ecosystems Recruitment and EHRP.

(g) Conduct such program reviews as it deems necessary.

2. Technical Advisory Committee

The Technical Advisory Committee (TAt) will serve as the major
source of program guidance and planning for the PMC. The TAC will
be composed of scientists f.rom---the Environmental Research
Laboratories, the Gulf Coast Sea Grant program and other NOAA line
organizations. The PMC and the Field Coordinator will be members.
The PMC may appoint other members of the TAC as needed.
4
Primary functions of the TAC will be to:

1. Based on the Implementation Plan, identify for the PMC the
priority subjects/research areas to be addressed by the
annual call for proposals.

2. Given a total budget, recommend a level of effort for each
priority research area.

3. Advise the PMC as to adjustments in the Implementation Plan
in future years.

4. Address the organization of program-wide functions such as
data management.

5. Address other issues as requested by't'he PMC.

C. NECOP Executive Director

A NOAA Corps Officer will be selected to serve as Executive
Director of the program. This officer will work to implement the
decisions of the PMC, as advised by the TAC, and to assist the
Field Coordinator (see below).

D. Program Field Coordination

A Program Field Coordinator position will be established at AOML.
The Field Coordinator will have full responsibility for the
day-to-day conduct of the program. The Field Coordinator will
establish P.I. coordinating and technical groups as needed to carry
out his/her responsibilities.

E. Ad Hoc.Committee

The-PMC will establish as needed the following:

1. Proposal Revie;d Panel(s).

One or more proposal review panels will be established by the PMC.

d I/

The number and composition 6f the panels will be determined by the
call for proposals. The panel will be comprised of both academic
and Federal laboratory scientists; none will be potential
investigators or their close associates. The panel will evaluate
the scientific merit of proposed research and advise the PMC on the
merit of and modifications required of submitted proposals.

2. Program Review Panels.

As necessary, the PMC will appoint a panel to review the
organization, operation, and ac.&omgllshments of the program and to
advise the PMC on any changes that seem desirable.

,,2

IX 1991 BUDGET

($K)

Process Studies $1041.0

Hypoxia Monitoring 211.0

Hypoxia Modeling 150.0

Remote Sensing 45.0

Retrospective Analysis

Sedimentary Records 175.0

Nutrients 19.0

Data Management 92.0

Program Management 100.0

Ship Time 117.0

Total $1950.0

,246

X. NECOP DATA MANAGEMENT PLAN

Per the recommendation of the NECOP Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
the NECOF data servicing function will be located at NOAA/AOML (Miami).
it will be established in cooperation with NOAA/NODC and co-located
with the Southeastern U.S. NODC Liaison Officer, who is stationed at
AOML.

NECOP data servicing staff will consist of the NODC Liaison Officer and
a NECOP Data Manager. The NODC Lialson Officer will receive salary
support from NODC and NECOP will provide support for specific
activities related to NECOP data management, e.g., travel. The NECOP
Data Manager will be an AOML employee supported by NECOP funds and
supervised by D. 1@. Atwood with significant work leadership provided by
the NODC Liaison Officer. The data manager will be hired as a GS-09
scientist at an M.S. level or equivalent. In addition AOML employees
will provide technical hardware and software expertise to the data
management operation with minimal cost to NECOP.

The NODC Liaison Officer will use existing contacts and authority to
expeodite data submissions in a timely manner. The NECOP Data Manager
will maintain the data base and provide assistance to project PI1s.,9n
data su bmission. Such assistance will include travel to various
research sites to assist in establishing communication links and
maintaining same.

The system will be "PC based" and operate at a level where remote PI
interface will allow listing of data sets available and transfer of
same to and from the main"the primary computer. Remote access to the
primary computer operating system and"relational-- database will not be
allowed except to the system manager(s). The primary computer at AOML
will be of the Intel 486 type with Write Once Read Many (WORM) optical
disk(s) as the primary data storage site. The installation will have
three dedicated telephone lines to allow communication through a NECOP
Bulletin Board and communication software (e.g., PROCOM) at PI sites.
The possibility of providing access through OMNET will also be
explored. The NECOP data management function will include purchase of
communication software and licenses and installation at PI sites where
necessary. Data sets will be appropriately flagged as to the extent of
quality control and proprietary nature of the d ata.

Most of the PC based communication software will probably operate at
1200 or 2400 baud which may be too slow for some transfers of data,
therefore, linkage@ through the existing SPAN network will'also be
provided and large data sets, e.g., ocean color, acoustic doppler
current profiles, etc., will have to be transfered by mailing
diskettes.

The NECOP data servicing function will represent a remote data entry
station for NODC. once data is in machine readable formats and quality
controlled it will be transferred to NODC in appropriate formats.

The following general data sets are anticipated.

,27

- Primary productivity.
- Pigments
- CTD
- Nutrients
- Ocean color
- Acoustic doppler current profiles (ADCP)
- Current meter records
- Sediment trap data
- Transmissometer data
- In situ plankton camera data and re.sulting zooplankton counts
- Benthic respiration data
- AVHHR data interpretations
- Benthic biota
- Demersal fisW
- Dissolved oxygen
- In situ irradiance
- In situ fluoresence
- Sediment cores
- Numerous othex-direct ob
,WrXational and derived data sets
- Historical data sets as required by investigators

All data collected by funded PI's must be submitted to the AOML Data
Servicing Center within one year of collection. For the first 18 months
after collection the PIOs proprietary rights to the data are recognized
and said PI will has sign off authority on release of said data. During
this 18 month period PI's are encouraged to share data on a cooperative
basis. After 18 months the data will be transferred to NODC for final
archival and will be considered available to the general community.

XI. REFERENCES

Andersson, L., and L. Rydberg. 1988. Trends in nutrient and oxygen
conditions within the Kattegat: effects of local nutrient supply.
Est. Coast. Shelf Sci. 26:

Cloern, J. E. 1987. Turbidity as a control on phytoplankton biomass and
productivity in estuaries. Cont. Shelf Res. 7: 1367-1381.

Dagg, M. J. 1988. Physical and biological responses to the passage of a
winter storm in the coastal and inner--shelf waters of the northern
Gulf of Mexico. Cont. Shelf Res.-8: 167-178.

D'Elia, C. F., J. G. Sanders, adn W. R. Boynton. 1986. Nutrient
enrichment studies in a coastal plain estuary: phytoplankton growth
in large-scale continuous cultures. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 43:
397-406.

French, C. 0. 1981. Gulf of Mexico: A socioeconomic view of competing
resources. In: Proceed. Symposium on Environmental Research Needs
in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX). 30 Sept. to 5 Oct., 1979. D.K.
Atwood., Ed. NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL. pp. 1 - 40.

Everett, D. E. 1971. Hydrologic and quality characteristics of the
lower Mississippi River. Louisiana Dept. of Pub. Works & U. S.
beol. Survey. 48 pp.

Gaston, G. R. 1985. Effects of hypoxia on macrobenthos of the inner
shelf off Cameron, Louisiana. Estuar. Coast. Mar. Sci. 20: 603-613.

Holeman, J.N. 1968. The sediment yield of major rivers of the' world.
Water Resources Res. 4; 737-747.

Holle, C. G. 1967. Sedimentation at the mouth of the Mississippi River.
In: Proc. Second Conf. on Coast. Engineering. Univ. of Calif Press,
Berkely CA. pp. 111-129.

Justic, D. 1987..- Long-term eutrophication of the northern Adriatic Sea.
Mar. Pollut. Bull. 18: 281-284.

Kempe, S. 1988. Estuaries- Their natural and anthropogenic changes.
In: Scales and Global Change. Ed. by T. Rosswall, R.G. Woodmansee,
and P. G. Risser. John Wiley & Sons, pp. 251-285.

Lasker, R., and K. Sherman. 1981. The early life history of fish:
recent studies. Rapp. P.-v. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer 178: 607
pp-

Leming, T.D., and W. E. Stuntz. 1984. Zones of coastal hypoxia revealed
by satellite scanning have implications-for strategic fishing.
Nature. 310: 136-138.

Moody, C.L. 1967. Gulf of Mexico distributive province. Amer. Assoc.
Pet. Geol. Bull. 51: .179-199.

Moore, B., III, and Bolin, B. 1987. The oceans, carbon dioxide and
global change. Oceanus. 29: 9-15.

Nelsen, T.A., and J.H. Trefry. 1986. Pollutant-particle relationships
in the marine environment: A study of particulates and their fate
in a major river-delta-shelf system. Rapp. P.-v. Reun. Cons. int.
Explor. Mer. 186: 115-127.

Officer, C. B., R. B. Biggs, J. L. Ta.ft,_. L. E. Cronin, M. A. Tyler, and
W. R. Boynton. 1984. Chesapeake Bay ari-oxia: origin, development and
significance. Science. 223: 22-'27.

Price, K. S., D. A.. Flemer, J. L. Taft, G. B. Mackiernan, W. Nehsen, R.
B. Biggs, i4. H. Burger, and D. A. Blaylock. 1985. Nutrient
enrichment of Chesapeake Bay and its impact on the habitat of
striped Bass: a speculative hypothesis. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 114:
97-106.

Rabalais, N. N. 1987. oxygen depleted waters on the Louisiana
Continental Shelf. In: Proceedings, U.S. minerals Manag. Serv.
Information Transfer Meet. Nov. 4 - 6, 1986. pp. 314-320.

Rabalais, N. N. in press. Hypoxia on the continental shelf of the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. in: Proc. Symposium on the Physical
Oceanography of the Louisiana/Texas Shelf. U. S. Minerals Manag.
Serv. May 24 - 26, Galveston, TX.

Rabalais, N. N., R.E. Turner, W. J. Wiseman, Jr., D'. F. Boesch. 1986a.
Hydrographic, biological and nutrient characteristics of the-water
column in the Mississippi Bight, June, 1985 to December, 1-985.
Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) Data Report #2.
Chauvin, LA.

. 1986b. Hydrographic, biological and nutrient characteristics of
the water column on the Louisiana Shelf, July and September, 1985.
LUMCON Data Report #3. Chauvin, LA.

Renaud, M.L. 1986. Hypoxia in Louisiana coastal waters during 1983:
implications for fisheries. Fish. Bull. 84: 19- 26.

Richards, F. A. 1957. oxygen in the ocean. In: Treatise on Marine
Ecology and Paleoecology. Ed. J. W. Hedgpeth. Geol. Soc. Amer.,
Mem. 67: 185-238.

Rowe, G. T., S. Smith, P. Falkowski, T. Whitledge, R. Theroux, W.
Phoel, and H. Ducklow. 1986. Do continental shelves export organic
matter? Nature. 324: 559-561.

Ryther, J. H., and W. M. Dunstan. 1971. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and
eutrophication in the coastal marine environment. Science. 171:
1008-1013.

Sklar, F. H., and R. E. Turner. 1981. Characteristics of phytoplankton

production off Barataria Bar in an area influenced by the
Mississippi River. Contr. Mar. Science. 24: 93-106.

Swanson, R.L., and C. J. Sindermann (editors). 1979. Oxygen depletion
and associated benthic mortalities in New York Bight, 1976. NOAA
Pro'iessional Paper 11. 345 pp.

Trefry, J. H., S. Metz, R. P. Trocine; and T. A. Nelsen. 1985. A
decline in lead transport by the Mississippi River. Science. 230:
439-441.

Turner, R. E., R. Kaswadji, N. N. Rabalais, and D. F. Boesch. 1987.
Long-term changes in the Mississippi River water quality and its
relationsh to hypoxic contionental Shelf Waters. In: Estuarine
and Coastal Mangement - Tools of the Trade; proceedings of the 10th
National Conference of The Coastal Society, 12 - 15 October, 1986,
New Orleans.

Turner, R. E., and R. L. Allen. 1982. Plankton respiration rates in the
bottom waters of the Mississippi River delta bight. Contr. Mar.
Sci. 25: 173-179.

Walsh, J. J. 1983. Death in the sea: enig-matic phytoplankton losses.
Prog. Oceanogr. 12: 1-86.

Walsh, J. J., G. T. Rowe, R. L. Iverson, and C. P. McCoy. 1981.
Biological export of shelf carbon is a sink of the global C02
cycle. Nature. 291: 196-201.

Table 1. Investigators with the NECOP Program. Principal
Investigators, institutions, and research component:

Investigators Institution Component

A. Bratkovich GLERL Buoyancy, nutrient flux of
river plume systems

0. Dortch LUMCON Phytoplankton size and s pecies
composition

T. Whitledge U. Texas Spatial-temporal variability in
G. Hitchcock AOML nutrients & pigments

N. Hawley GLERL Concentration, composition and
T. Nelsen AOML transport of suspended J.
Trefry FIT sediments

T. Nelsen AOML Retrospective analysis of
B. Eadie GLERL productivity in sediments
B. McKee LUMCON from the Louisiana shelf
J. Trefry FIT
P. Blackwelder RSMAS

G. Fahnenstiel GLERL Primary productivity and the
S. Lohrenz USM/CMS vertical flux of carbon in
G. Knauer USM/CMS the Louisiana shelf waters
D. Redalje USM/CMS

M. Dagg LUMCON Zooplankton grazing and the
P. Ortner AOML fate of carbon

H. Mofjeld PMEL A time dependent model of
productivity-hypoxia

W. Gardner GLERL The fate and effect of R.
Benner U Texas dissolved organic matter

G. Rowe TAMU Benthic metabolism measured
with a GOMEX benthic lander

F. Kelly TAMU Satellite estimation of surface
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Turner LUMCON process studies
W. Wiseman LSU

T. Leming NMFSISSC Large scale synoptic sampling
R. Miller NASA/SSC of surface chlorophyll and
M. Dagg LUMCON suspended sediment
B. McKee LUMCON

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FY 1991 Coastal Ocean Implementation Plan
for the NOAA/OAR/ARL program on

ATMOSPHERIC NUTRIENT INPUT TO COASTAL AREAS
(ANICA)

Revised

February 1991

Prepared by

J. Miller and B. Hicks

NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Telephone: 427-7684

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The FY 1991 ANICA program will focus on the Chesapeake Bay watershed, where strong
evidence already exists that excess nutrient input to the Bay is affecting its biological
productivity and is reducing its attractiveness as a recreational resource. There is a large pool
of nutrients contained within the water body of the Bay, and especially in its sediments, which
is slowly being increased as a results of inflow primarily from streams and rivers. Some of this
input is known to be a result of deposition from the air to the catchment area serving the Bay.
The long term goal of ANICA is to develop methods for assessing the importance of this
atmospheric input, using the Chesapeake Bay as a first target of contemporary importance (as
evidenced by its specific mention in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990).

There is already a large, multi-organizational research effort addressing the Chesapeake Bay
problem. The ANICA program is designed to interface with this effort, so as to bring to bear
the unique skills of NOAA that relate to the problem of deposition to landscapes. Without this
component, the large-scale effort to investigate the nutrient characteristics of the Chesapeake Bay
will fail to show how much of the problem is due to atmospheric inputs, and inappropriate
control strategies might then result.

FY 1991 goals of ANICA are modest --

� To initiate collaborative work on the problem of nitrogen transport processes that
involve the terrestrial, riverine and atmospheric paths to and within the
Chesapeake Bay.

� To form a Consortium of actively involved researchers from among local
university, state, and federal research establishments.

� To commence measurement of atmospheric nitrogen fluxes to a single calibrated
catchment area within the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

� To assemble all the wet and dry deposition data presently available for the
Chesapeake Bay watershed and begin data analysis.

� To initiate a data system combining catchment deposition data with streamflow
and water quality information.

The program is proposed to start in earnest in FY 92, with an immediate effort to expand the
single-location deposition focus of FY 91 to a watershed-wide assessment. At this time, it would
then be possible to relate time records of areal deposition data to similar records of Bay water
quality and streaniflow information, yielding a first estimate of the spatially averaged
consequences of retention of nitrogen in soils and vegetation across the catchment area. In

-37

subsequent years, the deposition quantifications would be verified against independent budget
estimates using models, derived from aircraft studies, and the methods that are developed in the
initial phases of ANICA would be applied to other coastal and/or catchment areas.

Budget details

FY 91 FY 92 FY 93 FY 94 FY 95 FY 96

Wet Deposition (ARL Hq) $15K 90K
Dry Deposition (ATDD) 25 110
Aircraft Studies (ARS) 50
Model Calculations (ASMD) 90
Synthesis (ARL Hq) 30

External 10 50
(university, etc.)

Total $50K $420K $800K $800K $LOM $LOM

-39

FY 1991 Coastal Ocean Implementation Plan
for the NOAA/OAR/ARL program on

ATMOSPHERIC NUTRIENT INPUT TO COASTAL AREAS
(ANICA)

I Background

Man can disturb the natural environment in many ways, particularly when disposing of the
wastes resulting from his activities. A prime example of this is the influx of man-made
nutrients, mainly in the form of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds to estuary and coastal
areas, which may result in the long-term decline of marine life. Though we often think of
nutrients as being beneficial to life, an overabundance may cause perceptible water quality
deterioration as well as chronic or intermittent health hazards, including toxicity and losses of
aesthetic and hence recreational values of affected waters (Paerl, 1988). This potential
degradation has been documented in the companion OAR proposals under the Nutrient Enhanced
Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) activities, 1989.

The natural ecological state of lakes, estuaries and coastal areas is typically determined by a
balance between nutrient inflow and outflow, each being relatively small in comparison to the
amount of nutrient recycled within the ecosystem itself. The impact of changes in the nutrient
loading to a body of water is consequently not quickly evident; the "insult" accumulates over
time, and it is only after many years that adverse effects start to become evident. At first, these
effects may be subtle, but eventually they may well lead to eutrophication. The time scale over
which effects may become apparent is determined by the magnitude of the imposed loading,
relative to the nutrient "pool" contained within the water body itself The larger the change in
net loading, the more rapid the onset of eutrophication. The Chesapeake Bay is of special
concern because the loading rate is now relatively high; in some circles, it is feared to be such
that the time scale for eutrophication may be reduced to less than twenty years.

Until recently, rivers were considered the only important conduit for nutrients from sources such
as commercial fertilizers, animal waste and municipal/industrial discharge. However,
preliminary analyses of atmospheric deposition measurements have shown that the atmosphere
can be an important path of nitrogen compounds (nitrate, ammonium, and possibly organic
nitrogen) to estuarine and coastal waters, particularly in the northeastern U.S. and Canada
(Paerl, 1985; Fisher et al., 1988; GESAMP, 1989). On the other hand, only a very small
percentage of phosphorus and other nutrients are estimated to come through the atmospheric path
(Duce, 1986).

Over the last decade, NOAA has taken an active part in investigations of nitrogen deposition,
both as part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) and as the source
of technical guidance to the Environmental Protection Agency. Under NAPAP, research has
focused on the effects of acid rain, particularly those of sulfuric (H2SO4) and nitric acids (HN03)
on forests, crops, lakes, freshwater streams and materials. Ammonia and ammonium deposition
has also been measured under this program. Investigation of the coastal waters has not been an
identified part of the acid rain research, though specific projects such as the Western Atlantic
Ocean Experiment (WATOX) were closely related. However, the NAPAP results, summarized
in a series of assessment documents which covered a ten year period of research activities,
provide us with information and a number of tools that can be used to build a foundation for
investigating nitrogen deposition to coastal areas (Irving, 1990).

Based on the NAPAP studies and other considerations, the Congress passed at the end of 1990
the Clean Air Act Amendments (S 1630). This act placed into law a number of reporting
requirements for NOAA regarding NAPAP and specifically relating to Coastal Ocean studies.
For example, the law states

"The Administrator of EPA, in cooperation with the Administrator of NOAA,
shall report every two years on the contribution of atmospheric deposition
loadings to the Great Lakes, the Chesapeake Bay, Lake Champlain, and coastal
waters. Moreover, the sources of any pollution that cause the deposition from the
atmosphere must be identified. "

Thus NOAA has a direct charge to investigate atmospheric inputs to lakes, estuaries and coastal
waters. Since this proposal deals with atmospheric transport of nutrients to the catchment area
of the Chesapeake Bay, it can contribute significantly to requirements spelled out in the Clean
Air Act.

We begin to address the problem by focusing on nitrate, where it has been shown that its wet
and dry deposition from the atmosphere is dominated by the products of chemical reactions,
largely derived from nitrogen oxides (NO and N02 = NOJ. The major emissions come from
transportation and utility sources (Figure 1). Nitrogen oxides are released in the atmosphere
where they are transformed into nitric acid by photochemical processes. During this
transformation process, these compounds may be transported over hundreds or even thousands
of kilometers. Eventually, the nitrate is deposited, either by incorporation in particulate form
in cloud and rain drops (leading to "wet deposition") or by gas (NOJ transfer and particle
settling and impaction ("dry deposition") to the surface (Hicks, 1989). If our hypothesis that
the atmosphere is a significant path for nitrate to the coastallestuarine areas is correct, then
anticipated increases in NO. anthropogenic emissions of up to 50% (Figure 2) will have a direct
impact by adding to the atmospheric nitrate loading. Present international negotiations on NO,,
emission reductions may effect this emission increase, but it remains clear that if riverine nitrates
are cut back by regulatory actions, atmospheric wet and dry deposition would become an even
more important factor in potential damage to marine life including eutrophication and nuisance
Algal blooms in estuarine and coastal areas.

Z-/O

other
1.06%

USIdes
33.OS%-

Trans.
43.06%

Oftr Comb.
63 Other
3.43% 0 Tfansportation
NOx 0 Industrial Combus6on
4.50% 13 Indvstrialoganufacturing Procossos
Ind. bomb. 0 Other Cornbustion
14.91% M Utilities

Figure 1. Distribution of NO., emissions by source in percent.
(Source: NAPAP)

Emissions (108 metric tons/yr)

EHP/EPA/B
E H P/ E PA /A
30- ANL/NEPP -

0
25- 1@
4f-e#0100, Total
we.00111 0 Emissions
20-

15- EHP/EPA/B
ANL/NAPAP EHP/EPA/A
10- __-----ANL/NEPP
00000@r- Utility
5- 00000 Emissions

0- 1 1 -
1970 1980 1990 2000 2@10 20@20 20'30 2 0
Year

Figure 2. Projections of total NO, emissions based on calculations of different groups.
(Source: NAPAP)

The role of atmospheric transport in providing an important path for nitrogen to estuarine areas
was recently underlined in the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) report (Fisher et al., 1988).
Based on one year of measurements (1984), the authors estimated that one third of the nitrogen
(nitrate and ammonium) entering the Chesapeake Bay comes via the atmosphere. Though many
scientists working in the acid rain field were at first skeptical about the report, a closer reading
showed that the assumptions made were reasonable. Specifically, the authors took the wet
deposition of nitrate and ammonium to the Chesapeake Bay's watershed from the nearby
National Acid Deposition Program monitoring sites. Dry deposition to the Bay and catchment
area was taken to be equal to the wet deposition. Using the other known contributions from
riverine sources, a rough budget was formulated for nitrogen loadings to the Bay. This is shown
in Figure 3. From this preliminary estimate it was clear that the atmospheric path is an
important one for the Bay. A more comprehensive study of nitrate deposition, sponsored by the
State of Maryland (Tyler, 1998), confirmed the EDF estimate that nitrate from the atmosphere
comprised about one quarter of the total man-made nitrate entering the Bay.

Sources of Nitrogen-The Mtershed

Atmospheric
Animal Wa
ste Nitrate
23%
32%

Atmospheric
Fertilizers
Ammonium 25%
13%

Point Sources
7%

Figure 3. A preliminary estimate of the sources of nitrogen in
the Chesapeake watershed. (Source: Fisher et al., 1988)

The Chesapeake Bay is not the only estuary on the East Coast that is affected by nitrogen
deposition. Another system, the Narragansett Bay, is a watershed that is much smaller than the
Chesapeake. However, a first rough estimate shows that about 18 % of the total deposition could
come from the wet and dry deposition of nitrate (Huebert, 1990). Farther south in the New
York Bight, a rough figure of about 37% is given for nitrogen coming from the atmosphere
(URI, 1989). Given the very preliminary evidence from these three major East Coast areas, it
is reasonable to speculate that most estuaries in this region experience significant atmospheric
contributions to their nitrogen loading.

The problem of nitrogen deposition to coastal waters is not unique to the North American
continent. Scientists have evidence that there is significant contribution from atmospheric
nitrogen to European marine areas. A recent summary by Hdgerhdll (1990) has shown that a
large portion comes via the atmosphere even in the polluted Baltic and North Seas (Table 1).
Further it has been suggested that transport to the open oceans of nitrogen may have an impact
on biological activity in remote regions (Michaels, 1990). It goes without saying that the
atmospheric movement of nutrients is not only of regional importance but has global
implications.

Table 1. Inputs of nitrogen from various sources to the
North Sea and the Baltic Sea areas.
(Source: Hdgerhgl 1990)

Sources (tonnes per year)
Area Rivers Direct Atmospheric Dumping Total
No ea 1,000,000 95,000 400,000 11,700 1,500,
Baltic Sea 449,000 80,000 413,000 --- 940,

Though the atmosphere was already known to be a ma or path of transport for many substances
j
in the environment, the EDF report did a great service by pointing out the potential importance
of this mechanism in East Coast estuaries. The large uncertainties of the studies to date,
however, make it imperative that we develop a better understanding of the processes that
transport and deposit nitrogen to the estuaries and coastal zones as wen as potential biotic
impacts. This proposal - Atmospheric Nutrient Input to Coastal Areas (ANICA) - outlines a
plan to address this problem through a measurement and modeling approach. It seeks to
quantify the contribution of atmospheric nitrogen to the total loading of nutrient nitrogen to
coastal and estuarine waters especially in light of the anticipated increase in NO,, emissions.

In addition, and as a result of collaboration with other research groups focusing on the
000
000

Chesapeake Bay, the ANICA program will provide quantitative information on the retention of

nutrients by soils and biological components of the landscape. The question here is critical
if the landscape is saturated in nitrate, for example, then all of the atmospheric nitrate falling
to the entire watershed will flow into the Chesapeake Bay. However, some of the deposited
nitrate will serve as a nutrient to watershed vegetation, and hence only part of the deposited
nitrate will flow into the Bay. The simple question is -- "How much?"

II Objectives

As an atmospheric component of the nutrient research program of NOAA's Coastal Ocean
initiative, the long term objectives of the research program are:

0 To determine the wet and dry deposition of nitrogen to certain East Coast estuarine
areas selected for intensive study (the Chesapeake Bay will be the first area of study).
This would include determining nitrogen inputs separately to the water surface area itself
and to its catchment area,

0 To develop a strategy for assessing the dry and wet deposition affecting other coastal
watersheds in the Northeastern United States and Maritime Canada, on the basis of the
measurements that are made during the initial part of the program,

To apply the models that are developed in this program to describe and predict
present and future atmospheric deposition scenarios for catchment areas impacted by
nitrogen deposition,

0 To link the findings from ANICA with the ecological and terrestrial components of
NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program.

The specific objectives for FY 91 are as follow.

0 To initiate collaborative work on the problem of nitrogen transport processes that
involve the terrestrial, riverine and atmospheric paths to and within the Chesapeake Bay.
This will be accomplished by forming the ANICA Consortium (See Section VI) and
supporting pertinent workshops.

0 To commence measurement of atmospheric nitrogen fluxes to a calibrate catchment
area within the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

0 To assemble all the wet and dry deposition data presently available for the
Chesapeake Bay watershed and begin data analysis.

0 To initiate a data system combining catchment deposition data with strearnflow and
water quality information.

@Ll

M Approach

The major question that must be addressed can be expressed as follows:

How much of the nutrients that contribute to enWronmental disruption in our
estuaries and coastal areas comes via the atmosphere?

In this regard, it is important to recognize that the deposition of relevance is not only that to the
exposed water surface itself, but also to the surrounding catchment area. It is clearly
inappropriate to assume that nitrogen compounds deposited to the watershed as a whole will all
enter the Chesapeake Bay itself, since there will be considerable exchange occurring during
transport through soils and in streams. There is large uncertainty about the proportion of
deposition occurring to land surfaces which affects the water body of the Bay. This question
will not be addressed directly in the first phases of the ANICA program. Instead, the initial
work will focus on defining deposition rates separately to the land and water areas, and on
generating an archive of data on strearnflow and water quality as wen as on deposition
quantities. In later stages of ANICA, these archived data will be used to address the matter of
soil retention of nitrates statistically, such as (in concept, and yet to be refined) by relating
changes in stream chemistry to changes in deposition rate. To this end, initial steps will be
taken to assure that the compatibility of all sampling protocols; a consortium of participating
scientific groups will be set up.

Considering the above factors, it is first necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates of
other nitrogen inputs from terrestrial and riverine sources affecting the Chesapeake Bay. Thus
we propose host a small workshop in the fall of 1991 to assemble a conceptual and
organizational framework in which the results of ANICA can be evaluated.

Three major technical components will comprise the initial phases of the present research
program:

1. Measurements

0 Wet Deposition to East Coast Areas

Because of the NAPAP program, the gross picture of nitrate and ammonium deposition over the
United States can be described (Figures 4 and 5). However, there may be wide variations of
deposition on a regional basis, due to topographical features, seasonal differences from changing
meteorological regimes, and year-to-year climatological shifts. To describe the wet deposition
in estuarine and coastal areas, a careful study will be made using available monitoring data to
establish the range of wet deposition along the Northeast Coast of the North America. Particular
effort will be made to develop a complete data base for the Chesapeake Bay water shed to

include not only the federal and state monitoring sites but also data from individual research
projects that have been conducted in the area. This study will be used to point out areas where
additional wet deposition measurements should be made.

Weather system typing and trajectory analysis will be applied as an additional method to evaluate
different deposition scenarios. The above data collection and analysis will be completed at
ARL/Silver Spring under the direction of J. Miller.

Also, while the wet deposition of inorganic nitrogen to coastal ecosystems has been measured,
there are no data on the wet deposition of organic nitrogen. Because a few short-term
measurements indicate that organ may be large (Pedulla, 1988), estimates will be made of this
deposition based initially on the limited data available. Measurement of organic nitrate will be
considered during a later phase of the program.

12
2 2
2 10
1 4
2 2 15
0

3 4

9 6

1985 Annual 2 6 7
Nitrate Deposition
kg ha

Figure 4. The 1985 annual distribution of N03 deposition.
(Source: NAPAP)

1.0

2.0
1.3 1.4 1.2
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.8 0.3
0.2 0.1
0.1 0.2 0.5 5.0
0.1 0.2 3.0
0.4 0.5 4.0

2.1

0.1
0.7
0.8

0.6
2.1
2.5 1.8
1.6
0.5 7 1.8 1.3
1.0
0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7
0.6
0.7
1.4
2.0 2.2 1.1
1.8 2.2 .7 1.4 1.3 1.0
1.0 1.5 1.0

0.5 1.5 2.0 0.6
0.5 1.7 0.8
1.6
1.8

1985 Annual
Ammonium Deposition
kg ha -1

Figure 5. The 1985 annual distribution of NH4 deposition.
(Source:NAPAP)

- Dry Deposition to East Coast Areas

In the estimates made by Fisher et al. (1988) and Tyler (1988), dry deposition of nitrogen was
calculated only as a percentage of the wet deposition; no measurements were used. There is
little doubt that dry deposition to water bodies and their watershed is a very complicated process.
In order to obtain a more realistic estimate for dry deposition, we propose to apply the
measurement protocols developed and tested under NAPAP. These methods would quantify dry
deposition ot experimental catchment areas when only air concentrations and not actual fluxes
are measured directly. In practice, sufficient accompanying data must be obtained to permit
improved dry deposition rates to be computed from air concentration measurements; these
additional data include meteorological data (site specific), biological species distribution, soil
characteristics, water status, etc. Key components of this study will be:

a. operation of NOAA's Dry Deposition Inferential Method (DDIM) systems within
selected target catchment areas beginning with a Chesapeake Bay location,

b. implementation of "benchmarking" field studies to calibrate the DDIM systems,

c. development of deterministic models to estimate dry deposition rates from routinely
collected field data, and

d. extension of the DDIM approach to other areas of interest in the NOAA Coastal
Oceans Program.

The Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division of ARL will take the lead under the
direction of T. Meyers.

0 7hree Dimensional Studies

We will begin to quantify the rate of depletion of nitrogen compounds from air crossing the
watershed zone of the Chesapeake Bay region. The scientific problem is simply stated but
difficult to address -- coastal and estuarine areas are often subjected to regular and organized
wind circulations (i.e., sea breeze ) which can cause locally emitted pollutants to be trapped in
close contact with the ground, while tending to isolate the surface from pollutants from more
distant sources. At other times, pollution from distant sources carried above the surface layers
of the atmosphere can be "fumigated" to the surface and confined within such organized
circulations as the land-sea breeze. All such behavior patterns inject a new level of complexity
into the treatment of problem involving transport, diffusion, and deposition. Initial steps will
be largely exploratory, to be conducted in a range of atmospheric situations so as to "scope" the
problem and to provide a basis for refining experimental approaches for later years.

The Global Change Expedition - Coordinated Air-Ship Experiment - Western Atlantic Ocean
Experiment (GCE/CASE/WATOX) studied the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur
and trace metals in the North Atlantic Ocean during the summer of 1988. Its primary purpose
was not to determine the atmospheric nutrient input to coastal areas. However, some results
from the project can be applied to ANICA. For example, Ray et al. (1990), using data collected
with the NOAA King Air, found that NOy ratios decreased from less than 3 ppbv above the U.S.
East Coast to about 1.7 ppbv at 160 km offshore. (NO@ or the total reactive nitrogen is defined
as the sum of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NQ), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), nitric acid
(HN03) and nitrate (N03).) They attributed this decrease to conversion of NOy to HN03 and
N03 with the subsequent deposition to the ocean. Nitrate removal rate was estimated at 3-6%
per hour. Assuming a removal rate of 4 % per hour and a 5 m/s offshore air flow, removal will
be virtually complete with 450 km. If local, coastal recirculation affects the offshore flow,
complete removal could occur in a much shorter distance. Other studies show similar results
(Luke and Dickerson, 1987).

In the Chesapeake Bay case, initial aircraft studies will be conducted at the same time as
intensive studies of wet and dry deposition to the surface are made, and will be designed to
reveal the linkages between the large-scale flow of pollutants aloft with their watersheds. The
methods to be used rely on accurate definition of concentration profiles across the area of
interest.

The NOAA King Air will be used to monitor the three dimensional distribution of reactive
nitrate over the Chesapeake Bay area. This part of the project would be lead by J. Boatman of
the Aerosol Research Section of ARL. It is expected that a number of university investigators
would be involved.

2. Modeling of Deposition to Estuarine Watersheds

The first project involves measurements and their interpretation in detailing relevant processes.
Another approach to atmospheric deposition estimation, which win begin in the first year, is to
use comprehensive atmospheric models, which are constructed using basic physical and chemical
principles. The model of choice would be the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM), which
was developed under the NAPAP program. The use of other mesoscale models will. also be
investigated.

Initially RADM can provide horizontal fluxes across specific boundaries, budgets and indications
of spatial patterns of wet and dry deposition on its 80 kni grids. However a number of
refinements are planned for RADM, which include better nitrogen partitioning, constructing a
nested grid version of the model, and tagging emission sources so that the origins of the modeled
nitrogen can be identified. Eventually the data from the measurements from project I will be
fed back into the model for verification and adjustments of parameters. Because of their
extensive experience with RADM, the Atmospheric Sciences Modeling DiNiision/ARL under F.
Schiermeier will take the lead in reconfiguring and applying RADM to the Chesapeake Bay
study.

3. Synthesis of ANICA Results with other the Coastal Ocean Program Products

The initial workshop (as mentioned earlier) will be the first step in the process of synthesis.
There the framework will be developed to hang the different pieces together. In particular, there
is need to draw on data obtained in other programs, relating to the chemical composition of
surface and ground waters. The question of the effect of subsurface chemistry and biology as
deposited nitrogen compounds are transported through the catchment area towards the
Chesapeake Bay will be addressed in later phases of this program and win require close
collaboration between ANICA and other projects of the Coastal Program.

The requisite links with other Coastal Program activities will be forged early in the process,
although the requirement for data from them is not until later stages of the ANICA program.
Early attention will be given to the needs of other programs for data from ANICA, which may
be more immediate. The facilitator of all such interactions will be ARL/Silver Spring Q.
Miller).

IV Program Products

A. FY 91 Products -

The following products will be available at the end of the first year of the ANICA program.

� Workshop reports which will be used in establishing the framework of ANICA.

� A collection and a preliminary analysis of existing deposition data will be made in
order to establish a gross estimate of nutrient deposition to the Chesapeake Bay.

0 Preliminary results from field studies aimed at testing methods for measuring dry
deposition over catchment areas will be available.

FY 92 Products -

Products that will be available if the funding request at the end of this proposal is granted.

0 A first assessment of wet and dry deposition into the Chesapeake Bay will be
completed.

� The initial atmospheric modeling results will become available.

� Combining the above two activities with other information provided by members of
the ANICA Consortium, nutrient inflow and retention to the Chesapeake Bay will be
computed.

0 Planning will begin for measuring horizontal fluxes of nitrogen compounds into the
Chesapeake Bay area and out of it, so as to provide an independent test of the deposition
quantifications made above. This will involve use of the NOAA King Air aircraft.

B. Long Term Products

In subsequent years, the following products will be provided.

0 Results from more intensive field studies that includes aircraft, ship and other
platforms will be published. As a cooperative program that would involve the
participation of several U.S. and Canadian organizations, programs would produce
profiles of atmospheric deposition not only to the Chesapeake Bay but also other
watersheds and coastal areas in the Northeast.

0 The model results will be available so that a more detailed and concise calculation of
wet and dry deposition can be made to the Chesapeake Bay and other watersheds. The

results will be compared with the accumulated measurements from routine networks and
field projects. At that point, a more sophisticated picture can be drawn by combining
the measurements with the model. Considerations would be made if the predictive
capacity of the model could be employed in order to aid in future control strategies both
in the air and water.

0 ANICA results will be integrated with other Coastal Ocean research to achieve a
comprehensive overview of the impact of nutrients on the marine environment. This
would be documented in a series of peer-reviewed publications.

V Data Management

The Air Resources Laboratory/NOAA will be responsible for all data archiving in ANICA. This
function has been considered as being supported through the requested funds.

The following data sets will be available from the ANICA project in FY 91:

0 Wet deposition data for the Northeast U.S. and Canada.

A specialized subset of wet deposition data will be prepared for the Chesapeake Bay
watershed in which both monitoring and research data will be combined and archived.
These data will be drawn from all available sources, examined and quality assured, and
archived by ARLISilver Spring.

0 Dry deposition data for selected areas of Northeast U.S.

Yhe Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffitsion DivisionlARL will collect and archive these
data. A small set of data will be available by the end of the first year.

The long term data management program would remain in ARL and would include the four
separate parts, wet deposition, dry deposition, aircraft measurements and model calculations.
Hard copy summaries of the data will be available to the user community the first year.

The full set of data on disk will be prepared for distribution by the end of the second year. This
will be updated every two years, in accord with the spirit of the language of the Clean Air Act
Amendments.

VI Program Management and Review

A. Program Management Goals

1. Fulfill the scientific goals of ANICA

2. Promote interdisciplinary proposals which involve not only NOAA investigators, but
also scientists from the academic community. It is expected that a large portion of the
resources will go to outside groups primarily in the university community.

3. Encourage cooperation with other agencies, such as EPA.

4. Support a five-year research effort.

B. Program Management Plan

1. Program Coordination Committee-ANICA

The Program Coordination Committee (PCC-ANICA) will be the senior coordinating group for
ANICA and be composed of scientists from the Air Resources Laboratory (ARL)/NOAA. This
group will report to the coordinator of the nutrient research program of NOAA's Coastal Ocean
initiative. The committee will include five members:

B. Hicks, chairperson, ARL Director, Silver Spring, MD
J. Boatman, Aerosol Research Section/ARL, Boulder, CO
T. Meyers, Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion and Divn./ARL,
Oak Ridge, TN.
J. Miller, ARL Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD
F. Schiermeier, Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Divn./ARL,
Research Triangle Park, NC

The PCC-ANICA will:

- Form the ANICA Consortium
- Issue a call for proposals
- Arrange for evaluation of proposals and manage the contracting to outside groups
- Develop the annual program plan
- Ensure proper review procedures.

2. ANICA Consortium

The ANICA Consortium (ANICA-CON) will serve as the chief source of scientific guidance and
planning for PCC-ANICA. ANICA-CON will be composed of scientists from ERL, other
federal agencies, and the university community. This will be the mechanism to entrain outside
researchers. Functions of this group will be to

- Identify, on the basis of the implementation plan, the priority areas to be addressed by
internal and external proposals.

- Establish priorities based on the funding allotted.

- Help in the annual revision of the implementation plan.

- Address program-wide concerns such as data management and quantity assurance

- Advise on other issues as they arise.

An informal group/consortium has been established that includes the Smithsonian Environmental
Research Center; Departments of Meteorology and Chemistry, the University of Maryland; the
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY and ARL representatives.

C. Field Coordination

A Field Coordinator position will be established at ARL in order to conduct the program on a
day-to-day basis. J. Mller, Deputy Director, ARL, will fill this position.

D. Ad Hoc Committees

The PCC-ANICA will establish ad hoc committees that will help evaluate submitted proposals
for their inclusion in the project. Members of these committees will be chosen to give
independent scientific advice.

VU Budget

FY 91 FY 92 FY 93 FY 94 FY 95 FY 96

Wet Deposition (ARL Hq) $15K 90K
Dry Deposition (ATDD) 25 110
Aircraft Studies (ARS) 50
Model Calculations (ASMD) 90
Synthesis (ARL Hq) 30

Extemal 10 50
(university, etc.)

Total $50K $420K $800K $800K $LOM $LOM

VHI References

Duce, R. A. 1986: "The impact of atmospheric nitrogen, phosphorus and iron species on
marine biological productivity" P. Buat-Menard (ed). The Role of Air-Sea Exchange in
Geochemical Cycling 497-529.

Fisher, D., J. Ceraso, T. Mathew, and M. Oppenheimer, 1988: Polluted Coastal Waters: The
Role of Acid Rain Environmental Defense Fund, 257 Park Ave South New York, NY 10010,
101 pp.

GESAMP, 1989: The Atmospheric Input of Trace Species to the World Ocean, World
Meteorological Organization No. 38. 111 pp.

Hdgerhdll, B. 1990: Coastal seas damaged worldwide by excess nutrients. Acid/Enviro,
9:18-21.

Hicks, B. B. 1989: Overview of deposition processes. Chapter 3 of "The Role of Nitrogen in
the Acidification of Soils and Surface Waters, Nordic Council of Ministers, NORD 1989:92, pp.
21.

Huebert, B. J. 1990: personal communication.

Irving, P. M. 1990: Acidic Deposition: State of Science and Technology, Summary
Compendium Document, National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, 722 Jackson Place
NW, Washington, DC 20503, pp 132.

Luke, W. T., and R. R. Dickerson, 1987: The flux of reactive nitrogen compounds from
eastern North America to the western Atlantic Ocean. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 1, 329-343.

Michaels, A. 1990: Personal communication.

Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) 1989: Draft implementation plan, 20
PP.

Paerl, H. W. 1985: Enhancement of marine primary production by nitrogen-enriched acid rain.
Nature 316:747-749.

Paerl, H. W. 1988: Nuisance phytoplankton blooms in coastal, estuarine, and inland waters.
Limnol. Oceanogr. 33 (4, part 2): 823-847.

Pedulla, J. C. 1988: A method for the measurement of total organic nitrogen in precipitation.
MS degree at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA.

511

Ray, J. D., M. Luria, D. R. Hastie, S. Walle, W. C. Keene, and H. Sievering 1990: Losses
and transport of odd nitrogen species (NOY) over the Western Atlantian, Submitted to Global
Biogeochemical Cycles.

Tyler, M. 1988: Contribution of Atmospheric Nitrate Deposition to Nitrate Loading in the
Chesapeake Bay, Versar, Inc., ESM Operations 9200 Rumsy Road, Columbia, MD 21045-1934,
29 pp.

URI, 1989: A Plan for Research and Monitoring of Atmospheric Nitrogen and Toxic Pollutants
in Coastal Waters. Unpublished Draft Plan prepared at a workshop held at the University of
Rhode Island (URI), 43 pp.

NOAA Coastal Ocean Program

Estuarine
Habitat Program

EHP

FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contract

This plan represents an agreement between the lead line office Assistant Administrator and the
Coastal Ocean Program Office concerning the management and review processes, scientific and
operational procedures, products, and budget for implementing this portion of NOAA's Coastal Ocean
Program in FY 1991.

Ned A Ostenso, Assistant Administrator OAR Date

William W. Fox, Jr., Assistant Administrator, NMFS Date

Donald Scavia, Director, NOAA Coastal Ocean Program Date

NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM
ESTUARINE HABITAT PROGRAM
FY 1991 Implementation Plan Contract

LBACKGROUND

Estuaries and their associated coastal systems are extremely valuable components of the marine
environment. Two-thirds of the Nation's commercial and recreational marine fisheries harvest
is estuarine dependent. In fact, estuaries provide food, shelter, migratory pathways, and spawning
grounds for over 70% of the commercial fisheries landed in the United States. These were worth
$5.5 billion to the Gross National Product in 1986. In addition, recreational fishing generates
annual expenditures of over $13.5 billion, while contributing significantly to the quality of life
for 17 million anglers (Mager and Thayer 1986, NMFS Operational Guidance 1990).

As human populations increase in the coastal region estuaries are placed under increasing
pressure. They are fringed with cities and attendant industries, they serve as transportation
corridors, recreational sites, and dumping grounds for society's waste products. Excess nutrients
may alter estuarine food webs or lead to conditions that reduce oxygen levels in the water
column. Toxic compounds, including halogenated- and petroleum -hydrocarbons, occur in fishes
and sediments in concentrations warranting concern. Various pathologies in fishes and
crustaceans have been linked with waters receiving agricultural drainage or effluent from heavily
industrialized areas. Less dramatic but equally insidious are changes in the clarity and volume
of water reaching estuarine habitats (Kenworthy et al. 1988, 1989 and references cited therein).
Silt and particulates from dredging, upstream erosion, or eutrophication reduce the intensity of
light reaching estuarine vegetation. The upstream withdrawal or addition of large quantities of
water in association with domestic, industrial, and/or agricultural uses also may disrupt estuarine
habitats and the organisms they support.

'Me House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries recently issued a report entitled Coastal
Waters in Jeopardy: Reversing the Decline and Protecting America's Coastal Resources. The
report states:

Ile evidence of the decline in the environmental quality of our estuaries and
coastal waters is accumulating steadily. The toll of nearly four centuries of human
activity becomes more and more clear as our coastal productivity declines, as
habitats disappear, and as our monitoring systems reveal other problems... The
continuing damage to coastal resources from pollution, development, and natural
forces raises serious doubts about the ability of our estuaries, bays, and near
coastal waters to survive these stresses. If we fail to act and if current trends
continue unabated, what is now a serious, widespread collection of problems may
coalesce into a national crisis by early in the next century.

It is the vegetated wetlands in estuaries (seagrasses, salt marshes and mangroves) that provide the
refuge, food resources and nursery areas for a majority of commercially important, estuarine

species (e.g., Peters et al. 1979, Boesch and Turner 1984, Ferguson et al. 1980, Kenworthy et al.
1988, Short et al. 1989). However, more than half of the nation's original acreage of coastal
wetlands has been lost, and the rate of loss appears to be increasing (Tiner 1984, Kean et al.
1988). Thus, California has lost 87% of its original 3.5 million acres of coastal wetlands.
Dramatic declines have also been observed in Florida and in the submerged seagrass; beds of
Chesapeake Bay. In the southeastern United States, where estuarine-dependence of fisheries is
greatest, the loss of coastal wetlands is most pronounced. Louisiana alone is losing 50-60 square
miles of wetlands annually. Loss of coastal wetlands results in decreased yields of those species
dependent on these habitats. Thus, the President has declared a "no-net-loss" policy for the
Nation's wetlands.

NOAA has resource management responsibilities for the nation's living marine resources
throughout their range. Accordingly, NOAA is charged with ensuring the continued productivity
of the habitats that support these commercially important species. This chapter of the Coastal
Ocean Program FY91 Implementation Plan describes the Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP), an
integrated effort to develop and disseminate the information necessary for effective management
of these critical estuarine and coastal habitats.

H. PROGRAM OBJECTIVES

The ERP, initiated in FY90, focuses special attention on wetlands (seagrasses and salt marshes),
and linkages among these and other habitats, because of their importance to the production of
living marine resources. Federal and state habitat managers need more quantitative information
on the functional mechanisms by which wetlands support living marine resources. Managers need
to know the location, extent, and rate of loss or modification of existing wetlands. Finally,
managers need to know how to restore and/or create these habitats more effectively. Information
on which to base management decisions must be easily available in the form of "...accurate maps
depicting where wetlands exist, [and]... information banks containing the results of research on
the functioning of wetlands, and on restoration and creation efforts (Kean et al. 1988)."
Accordingly, the three basic and interrelated objectives of the EHP are:

1 . To determine how coastal and estuarine habitats function to support living marine
resources. This includes research on factors causing habitat degradation and loss, as
well as on methods for habitat restoration.

2. To determine the location and extent of critical habitats and the rate at which these
habitats are being changed or lost. This includes satellite, aerial photographic, and
surface level surveys to map habitat location and extent, and to determine change
through time.

3. To synthesize the new and existing information in the form of mechanistic models of
habitat function of use to managers in protecting, conserving, and restoring critical
habitats.

No other national effort within or outside of NOAA addresses these fundamental questions in a
comprehensive and integrated program as described below. Recent advances in technology have

-5-1

been made in data acquisition, analysis, display, storage and retrieval. This is an opportune time
to integrate broad scale mapping and change analysis with mechanistic studies of cause and
effect, essential for effective management.

Ill. APPROACH

The Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP) is designed to achieve its objectives through three
interrelated avenues of investigation: A) research on estuarine habitat function and restoration;
B) a program of coastal habitat change analysis; and Q a program of synthesis and model
building to make this information available to managers.

A. Estuarine Habitat Function and Restoration

The EHP is documenting the role of habitats in supporting living marine resources and provide
information to improve restoration procedures. Research teams are drawn from NOAA
laboratories and academia. These teams are focussing expertise on trophic interactions, habitat
dynamics and effects of habitat alteration. The program builds upon ongoing, successful research
efforts, many of which have been supported under the National Sea Grant Program. It will take
advantage of existing data bases or historical studies and capitalize on serendipitous environmen-
tal "experiments" that result from natural events or human actions, including those detected
remotely.

Research initiated in FY90 and continued in FY91 focuses on three research efforts identified in
FY89 workshops which included managers and research scientists:

1. How do stresses impact the viability of seagrass habitats and what are the consequences
of loss of seagrass habitat for estuarine productivity?

2. What are the effects of hydraulic manipulation on salt marsh viability and their
functional role in marine ecosystems?
3. How can seagrass and salt marsh habitats be restored to assure they are functionally
equivalent to natural habitats and how can the process be accelerated and improved?

In addition, in FY91 the EHP will hold at least one workshop including EHP Pls and experts on
modeling. Ile workshop objectives are: 1) to evaluate present knowledge of habitat function and
change analysis, including advances made as part of the EHP; 2) to identify the most promising
approaches for synthesizing and modeling this information; and 3) to determine the direction of
future research.

A.I. Seagrass Habitat

Seagrass systems are at the interface between man's development on the coast and the open ocean
environment and are becoming increasingly stressed by man's activities in the coastal region
(Ferguson et al. 1980, Zieman 1982, Tbayer et al. 1984, Zieman and Zieman 1989). Some of the
fluctuations appear to be a recurring feature of seagrass meadows and are a consequence of the

extreme environmental conditions the plants experience in shallow water. Others, however, have
been identified as long-term, large-scale declines in response to deteriorating water quality.
Recently, disease symptoms, similar to the historic wasting disease episode of the 1930's, have
appeared in association with dramatic fluctuations in eelgrass populations located in northeastern
estuaries (Short et al. 1987, 1988). Likewise, in Florida Bay, seagrass habitats have undergone
an unprecedented decline (Everglades National Park Staff, Pers. Comm.). Utilizing these major
declines as experimental sites will improve our ability to predict the consequences of seagrass
habitat loss.

A.1.a. Continuing projects

The EHP is developing the capability to conserve and protect seagrass habitats through an
understanding of the primary factors which control their distribution, abundance and productivity,
e.g., water clarity (turbidity), nutrients, and the combined effects of both factors. Three-year
projects initiated in FY 1990 to address ftinctioning and restoration of seagrass habitats are:

Accelerating and Evaluating the Development of Restored and Created Sea Grass Beds.
Susan Bell - University of South Florida, Mark Fonseca - NMFS Beaufort, Charles
Peterson - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
This project will develop a model of spatial heterogeneity of seagrass beds as a function of wave
energy regime. It will evaluate settlement, survival, feeding, and predation of macroepifauna,
suspension feeders, and meiofauna as indicators of habitat function in relation to energy regime
and patch size. It will also determine the effect of energy regime on the functional development
of transplants. Transplants using plugs placed in manufactured peat pots will be tested for
improving transplanting. Fertilizer amendments will be tested on a split-plot basis. Effects of
large bioturbators on transplants will be examined by using exclosures around the new transplants.
Abundance and composition of fish will be compared between transplanted and natural meadows.
Habitat creation research results should provide specific guidance in the use of planting
technology to accelerate and obtain equivalent levels of secondary productivity in restored beds.

Factors and Processes Controlling Eelgrass Habitat Persistence and Loss. Fred Short -
University of New Hampshire, David Porter - University of Georgia
The objective is to understand the factors that lead to the alteration, degradation and loss of
eelgrass habitat, including decreased water clarity, nutrient loading, and wasting disease (slime
mold-like protozoan, Labyrinthula). The program will utilize field studies to determine
mechanisms leading to disease-caused mortality, chemical analysis of plant resistance to disease,
identification of resistant eelgrass populations, and a series of mesocosm experiments to look at
the effect of eutrophication on seagrass survival. The goal is to acquire sufficient knowledge to
predict how eelgrass habitat responds to adverse environmental conditions and to recommend
management strategies to insure the survival and recovery of these habitats.

Effect of Eutrophication on Seagrass Habitats of Coastal Lagoons. Scott Nixon - University
of Rhode Island, Sybil Seitzinger - Philadelphia Academy of Science
This project is part of a larger investigation of the effects of various types and levels of nutrient
enrichment (nitrate, ammonium, and/or phosphate) on the structure and functioning of eelgrass-
based lagoon ecosystems. This particular project is concerned with determining the relation, if
any, between level of nutrient enrichment and growth or dieback of eelgrass, Zostera, and the role
of the interactions of fish, amphipod/isopod and seaweed assemblages in regulating the responses
of eelgrass systems to nutrient enrichment. Long-term, replicated and controlled nutrient addition
experiments will be conducted using ten lagoon eelgrass mesocosms at the University of Rhode
Island. Densities and growth of eelgrass plants will be monitored at weekly intervals in
mesocosms receiving different levels of nutrient enrichment. Grazer exclusion experiments will
be used to investigate the effects of amphipod/isopod grazing on the biomass and production of
the filamentous seaweed, Cladophora, mats which develop in the mesocosms in summer.
lzboratory predation experiments will be used to estimate the rates of consumption of the
dominant amphipods and isopods in the mesocosms by the three fish species in the mesocosms
(mummichogs, Fundulus majalis; silversides, Menidia beryllina; and 3-spine sticklebacks,
Gasterosteus aculeatus). Eutrophication has been identified as a threat to the extensive seagrass
beds of shallow lagoon ecosystems along the eastern seaboard of the US. The present project will
provide some of the most basic information necessary to empirically define these relations.

The Role of Light Attenuation Processes and Plant Sediment Interaction in Determining
Seagrass Survival. Robert Orth -VIMS, 5 Co-P.I.'s from VIMS, University of Maryland
The objective is to investigate aspects of light attenuation in a shallow lagoonal seagrass system
and assess the role of plant-sediment interactions in determining the minimum light requirements
for seagrass growth and survival. The hypothesis is that light attenuation in the water column
and epiphytic cover affect oxygenation of the seagrass rhizosphere through regulation of
photosynthetically produced lacunal oxygen. Oxygenation of the rhizosphere is necessary for
maintaining aerobic root respiration and for the oxidation of potential toxic metabolites (e.g.,
sulfides). Hence the minimum light requirement for seagrass growth and survival is controlled
by seagrass-sediment interactions. This hypothesis will be tested by measuring seasonal patterns
of light attenuation, factors affecting light attenuation processes, and seagrass production
dynamics. Study sites are located in Chincoteague Bay, and Delaware and Virginia coastal
lagoons. Data from these sites will be coupled with field and laboratory experiments testing the
effects of light and sediment characteristics on growth, distribution, and abundance of seagrasses.
A simulation model will of these interactions will be developed and validated by simulation using
parameter values and data sets from other east coast estuarine and lagoon systems. The model
is intended to facilitate development of proper management policies to insure survival of these
important systems.

Response of Fish and Shellfish to Changes in Composition and Heterogeneity of Habitats
in Western Florida Bay. Don Hoss; -NMFS Beaufort, Pete Sheridan - NMFS Galveston
The seagrass communities of Florida Bay are undergoing a period of rapid change due to a die-
off of turtle grass (Thalassia and invasion/colonization of some denuded areas by shoal grass
(Halodule). This research will clarify ecological relationships between the different types of
seagrass; habitats and their associated faunas. A variety of sampling gears (light traps, POP-nets,
push-nets, trawls, drop samplers, gillnets) will be used to provide comprehensive measures of the
structure of faunal communities associated with the different habitats. Field enclosures will be

@'L

used in short term (3-6 hr) experiments to measure prey availability and predator selectivity.
Enclosures will also be used in long-term (3-4 weeks) experiments to compare growth of
selected organisms in the different habitats. Tethering experiments will be conducted to estimate
relative value of different seagrasses in providing prey refuge from predation. Plant parameters
(shoot density, coverage, average leaf length, and above-ground dry-weight biomass) will be
measured concomitantly with each field effort to provide quantitative characterization of the plant
community at sampling and experimental sites. The research will provide a basis for predicting
the consequences of altered seagrass dynamics for fisheries production in subtropical seagrass
systems.

A.I.b. New projects

The ERP received several proposals during FY90 that were approved by the outside review panel
in April 1990, but were not funded due to insufficient funds. Two of these proposals that deal
with seagrasses will be funded in FY91.

Modeling Spectral Light Available to Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in Relation to Water
Quality and Epiphytic Growth. Charles Gallegos - Johns Hopkins University
The objective is to quantify the relative contributions of suspended solids, phytoplankton,
dissolved light-absorbing substances and epiphytic growth to shading of submerged aquatic
vegetation beds. A recently developed model will be refined and extended to relate spectral light
penetration to the concentrations of light absorbing and scattering materials, using data from study
sites in the Patuxent and Chester rivers. In addition, the absorption spectrum of epiphytes and
settled sediments on leaf surfaces will be measured. This information will facilitate efficient
management actions to improve habitat for submerged aquatic vegetation (e.g., reduction of
nutrients, control of sediment runoff or erosion) by identifying specific problem areas.

Micropropagation and Aquaculture of Zostera matina and Spartina alterniflora. Kimon
Bird - University of North Carolina at Wilmington
The objective is to apply plant genetics, selections, and biotechnology applications to developing
superior strains of marine angiosperms for habitat restorations. 'Me project will also develop
micropropagation protocols and aquaculture technologies for several species of marine
angiosperins. Healthy, living plants will be obtained and grown as candidates (Zostera and
Spartina). Meristernatic sources in different media supplemented with various combinations of
plant growth regulators will be tested. Plants or shoots will be multiplied on a multiplication
medium and transferred to a rooting medium. This will be followed by potting and nursery
establishment. This research will provide the technology necessary for successful propagation
and nursery production of two plants necessary for restoring marshes and seagrass meadows.

A.2. Salt Marsh Habitat

Hydrology is the dominant factor controlling the ecological structure, function, and productivity
of salt marsh systems (Waltby 1986). Much of the human impact on salt marsh systems has been
through some type of alteration to hydrology, e.g., dams, levees, dikes, dredge and fill, drainage,
culverts, roadways, increased or decreased water flow. Salt marsh functional research focusses

on the mechanisms of hydrologic control of estuarine salt marsh productivity. Research is also
being conducted to improve our ability to restore and construct salt marshes that are functionally
equivalent to natural marshes.

A.2.a. Continuing projects

Three-year projects initiated in FY90 are:

Accelerating the Development of Ecosystem Functions in Restored and Constructed
Wetlands. Steve Broome - North Carolina State University, Gordon Thayer - NMFS
Beaufort
This project will evaluate the potential for accelerating functional development of constructed salt
marsh by incorporating organic matter in the substrate prior to establishing vegetation. Functional
development will be determined by comparing experimental plots with nearby natural marsh
(above and below ground biomass, chemical and physical substrate properties, nitrogen fixation,
denitrification, and infauna characteristics). Organic enrichment will be tested as an amendment
to aid in salt marsh construction. A better understanding of functional equivalency and how to
use the proper techniques will enable the attainment of the national policy of "no net loss" in
wetland acreage and function.

An Ecosystem Comparison of Transplanted and Native Salt Marshes: The Chronological
Development of Habitat for Fishery Species. Tom Minello - NMFS Galveston, James
Webb - Texas A&M
The overall objective of this study is to evaluate functional development and equivalency of
created salt marsh habitats compared with natural salt marshes in the Galveston Bay system. The
approach will be to make univariate and multivariate comparisons of five natural and ten
transplanted salt marshes (5, 5-7 years old; 5, 13-15 years old). Specific objectives will be to
characterize each marsh by its overall morphology, hydroperiod, slope, elevation, amount of
marsh/water edge, percent of open water, sediment organic content, sediment grain size, growth
of Spartina alterniflora (plant height, density, and above and below ground biomass), benthic and
epiphytic algae (chlorophyll a, taxonomic composition) and densities of meiofauna, macroinfauna,
and natant macrofauna. Caging techniques will also be used to compare the marshes on the basis
of benthic infaunal productivity, predation pressure on infauna, and growth of penaeid shrimp.
These experiments will determine whether differences exist in the ability of the marshes to
support secondary productivity.

Accelerating Salt Marsh Functional Development Through Plant Genotype Selection:
Intraspecifle Diversity from Natural Populations and the Tissue Culture laboratory.
Dennise Seliskar - University of Delaware
The objectives are to produce and select varieties from dissimilar genotypes of three salt marsh
plant species, Spartina alterniflora, Spartina patens, and Distichlis spicata, which will drive the
substrate, aerial detritus production, and decomposition in created wetlands toward functional
equivalency with the natural marsh. Studies will take place in a one-half acre marsh which was
created during the fall of 1989 at I-ewes, Delaware and planted with five different genotypes of
S. alterniflora and four of S. patens. Five genotypes of D. spicata will be planted this spring
(1990). The rates at which various salt marsh plant genotypes are able to accelerate the
functional development of a created salt marsh will be ascertained by measuring soil

development, detrital production potential, and the microbial community associated with the
detritus. 'Mese processes in the created marsh will be compared with those in the adjacent natural
marsh. Plant genotypes of a particular species differ in many respects which pertain to salt
marsh functional development. Identifying these differences and selecting those genotypes which
accelerate salt marsh development will lead to successful marsh creation and restoration.

Influence of Inundation Regime on the Use of Gulf Coast Marshes by Fishes and
Macrocrustaceans. Lawrence Rozas - Louisiana State University
The objective is to understand the factors causing alteration, degradation, and loss of salt marsh
habitat through modification of hydroperiod, especially how hydroperiod alteration affects faunal
utilization and secondary production of salt marshes. Specific objectives are: 1) to assess how
depth of flooding and frequency and duration of flooding affect the use of salt marshes by nekton
species; 2) to compare growth of fisheries species among marshes having different hydroperiods;
and 3) to compare predator encounter rates and mortality rates of dominant species of nekton
among marshes having various hydroperiods. Densities of nekton will be compared among three
marshes having different inundation regimes by using flume nets to collect twice-monthly marsh-
surface samples on each marsh for one year. Rates of growth for several species of nekton within
enclosures will be compared among the three study marshes. Predator encounter rates will be
estimated from tethering experiments conducted in each study marsh. Mortality rates of dominant
species will be estimated for each marsh by comparing densities of cohorts over the two-week
sampling intervals. An understanding of these relationships will be used to predict the effect of
changes in hydroperiod on marsh utilization and production.

Use of Sediment Fences for Marsh Restoration and Creation. John Day - Louisiana State
University
The object is to investigate the factors influencing sediment deposition and erosion in shallow
ponds and mudflats. Sediments are important to maintain marsh elevation and as a source of
nutrients to support growth of wetland vegetation. Specific objectives are: 1) to monitor the
effects of sediment fences on sediment deposition and erosion patterns in shallow coastal ponds
and to determine the effect of sediment fences on vertical sediment accretion, elevation, and
vegetation establishment; 2) to quantify the relationship between sediment deposition, sediment
erosion, and the following factors: fetch, wind speed, soil strength, submerged vegetation,
sediment exposure, and wave characteristics; and 3) to develop a mathematical model to describe
sedimentation and erosion patterns in shallow coastal ponds and mudflats including the effects
of wind speed, fetch, water depth, and wave parameters on sedimentation patterns. Ilere is a
high rate of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana. Inadequate sediment delivery and accumulation
in coastal wetlands is a major factor leading to this loss. Sediment fences represent a way to
enhance sediment deposition and to reduce resuspension, thus leading to greater sediment
accumulation.

A.2.b. New projects

The Bird proposal (described earlier with research on seagrasses) will also augment our
knowledge of micropropagation of salt marsh grasses. One new proposal will be funded that
deals with salt marsh ecology in California. It is a companion project to the Broome[nayer
project in North Carolina and will provide the EHP with a geographic comparison. It was
approved for funding by the outside review panel in April 1990, but was not funded at that time
because of insufficient funds.

Accelerating the Development of Ecosystem Functions in Restored and Constructed
Wetlands. Joy Zedler - San Diego State University
In order to predict rates of ecosystem development and organic matter accumulation in
constructed marshes, we will compare sites of different age and in individual sites through time.
A two-year study (1987-89) has followed the development of a 5-ha wetland constructed in fall
1984 and transplanted in Jan.-Mar. 1985. We propose to continue the comparison of the
Connector Marsh (CM) with its adjacent natural wetland (Paradise Creek = PC) to examine rates
of increase in organic matter, nutrient pools and vegetative canopy. Our second objective is to
accelerate the development of salt marsh nutrient functions using experimental organic matter
augmentation in the new 7 ha experimental Marisma de Nacion (MN). Different types of organic
matter will be tested in order to develop the best methods of enhancing nutrient-supply and food-
chain-support functions.

B. Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis

Quantifying changes in land use and vegetation cover (wetlands and adjacent uplands) in the
coastal zone is critical in linking land-based human activities to the productivity of the coastal
ocean. Habitat change in the coastal zone occurs faster and more pervasively than we previously
have been able to monitor. The Wetlands Policy Forum notes that "...current survey efforts are
too infrequent; only one national survey has been completed, and this is being updated only once
a decade. Particularly in regions where wetlands are being lost rapidly, where they are under
substantial threat, or where they are of unusual value, more frequent assessments ... preferably
every one or two years ... are essential to an effective protection and management program ... (Kean
et al. 1988)."

NOAA is undertaking a program (using satellites and aerial photography) to develop the protocol
and techniques to monitor vegetation cover and habitat change in the coastal region of the United
States. This information, when coupled with other components of the Coastal Ocean Program
(i.e., Habitat Function and Restoration, and Coastwatch) and fisheries data, will allow us to relate
coastal habitat change to changes in fisheries production. For example, this mapping project is
being coordinated with Coastwatch to develop the capability to monitor water turbidity via
satellite sensors to identify areas of potential loss or re-establishment of seagrasses.

Habitat maps are being produced from satellite imagery and aerial photography both for recent
and past time periods (e.g., 1984 and 1989). These maps are classified by habitat type and
compared for habitat changes between time periods, producing a habitat change analysis. Current
efforts include the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in North Carolina and the emergent
coastal wetlands and adjacent uplands of Chesapeake Bay. This approach is intended to build
upon and complement ongoing research and mapping programs carried out by other Federal and
state agencies including the USFWS National Wetland Inventory. The EHP will provide timely
and synoptic habitat maps, including SAV, and maps of habitat change in the coastal region of
the U.S. The monitoring cycle for change analysis will range from I to 5 years depending on
region and availability of funds. Areas of most rapid change will be monitored annually while
areas of less rapid change will be monitored on a less frequent basis (2-5 years).

The current program has three specific objectives:

1. To demonstrate the feasibility of using satellite imagery and aerial photography to map
coastal habitats and to determine habitat change through time.

2. To develop standard, nationally accepted protocols for mapping SAV, emergent coastal
wetlands and adjacent uplands. National acceptance of these protocols will allow
comparable data to be obtained regardless of which Federal or state agency or
university conducts the effort.

3. To perform a literature search and review, and summarize the status of remote sensing
of biomass, productivity and functional health of coastal wetland habitats.

The Chesapeake Bay prototype that was conducted in FY90 will be completed and an
independent verification of the change analyses between 1984 and 1988/89 will be conducted in
FY91. This verification will be jointly funded between the Coastal Ocean Program and the
NOAA portion of the Chesapeake Bay Program. A meeting with several statistical experts,
including a nationally recognized statistician, was held in Beaufort, NC, in September 1990, to
scope out the experimental design of the verification.

In FY91, regional projects concerning change analysis of emergent coastal wetlands and adjacent
uplands will be conducted in selected areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the U.S. These
projects will add to our geographical coverage and assist in the resolution of technical issues
necessary for protocol development. They will include representative habitat types and will be
distributed along the coastal region of the U.S. such that latitudinal, longitudinal and tidal
differences (i.e., vegetation type, height, biomass, and degree of inundation) will be considered.
At the present time cooperative efforts for regional projects are being discussed with the
University of South Carolina, the University of Rhode Island, the states of Texas, North Carolina,
and Florida, and the EPA's E-MAP Program. The number and scope of individual projects are
now being finalized.

The seagrass mapping and change analysis project will continue. Current emphasis is in North
Carolina, but plans to expand the mapping effort to other regions are underway. This task uses
aerial photography at scales of 1:12,000 to 1:24,000 and will produce photographic scale tracings
and 1:36,000 scale hard copy maps to document location, area, and change of SAV habitat. The
digital data base is obtained from 1:24,000 scale compilations of SAV habitat.

All initial aerial photography of SAV for the area from Bogue Inlet, NC, to the Virginia border
will be completed. The completion of photography of western Pamlico Sound, however, is
contingent upon funding (proposal submitted) from EPA's National Estuary Program, Albemarle-
Pamlico Project. This year a change analysis map will be completed for southern Core Sound
(1985 to 1988). This map is the third in a series. The first, of southern Core Sound (1985) was
printed in 1989. The second, northern Core Sound and southeastern Pamlico Sound (Drum Inlet
to Ocracoke Inlet, 1988) is currently being produced.

This project is being conducted cooperatively with the EPA Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary
Program and all maps are being digitized and placed in the state of North Carolina GIS system.
This effort is cooperative with the Photogrammetry Branch of NOS which is doing the aerial
photography, providing accurate shoreline delineations and producing the hard copy maps. In
addition, a cooperative effort with the EPA's E-MAP Program, USFWS and states to map SAV
in the northern Gulf of Mexico is currently being negotiated. Ongoing mapping of SAV habitat
in Chesapeake Bay (not funded by COP) will be merged in FY91 with the Chesapeake Bay
Prototype (emergent coastal wetlands and adjacent uplands) begun in FY90. The combination
of submerged and emergent wetlands and adjacent uplands is a unique feature of this program's
data base.

During calendar year 1991, the development of an operational protocol for mapping and change
analysis will be completed for SAV, emergent wetlands and adjacent uplands. The first of four
emergent wetland and adjacent upland protocol workshops was completed in May 1990 at the
University of South Carolina and the second took place during the first week of January 1991 at
the University of Rhode Island. The third emergent wetland protocol workshop is scheduled
for the west coast (Seattle) in April 1991. The final emergent wetland workshop will be on the
Great Lakes in July 1991. The SAV protocol development workshop took place in Tampa in July
1990. Additionally, special meetings on statistical evaluation (September 1990), data management
and dissemination (October 1990), use of NWI data base (December 1990 and February 1991)
and habitat classification (February 1991) are being held to assist in the resolution of particular
protocol issues. The integrated protocol for SAV, emergent wetlands and adjacent uplands will
be available for operational use by December 1991.

A literature search, review and summarization of the status of using remote sensing to determine
biomass, productivity and functional health of coastal wetlands will occur during FY91. The
review will include all remote sensing techniques which can provide answers to the following
questions:

What proportion of mapped wetlands are in good condition? How many are in
relatively poor condition?

Are conditions improving or degrading over time? In what proportion of the wetland
resource are conditions continuing to decline and at what rate?

What are the most likely causes of poor or degrading condition? Which stresses seem
to be most important, affecting the greatest numbers (or area) of wetlands?

C. Synthesis and Model Development

The eventual goal of habitat research is to produce mechanistic models of habitat function. These
models will enable managers:

1. To evaluate the functional health of existing wetlands.

2. To estimate the consequences for living marine resources of habitat change, such as
measured in the coastal habitat change analysis program.

3. To predict the consequences of planned and unplanned environmental modifications.
These include changes in hydrology brought about by dredging and filling, or decreased
water quality brought about by eutrophication (as described in the section on Habitat
Function and Restoration).

4. To determine the success of restoration projects, Le, whether they are functionally
equivalent to existing wetlands, and to predict rates of habitat development under
different construction approaches.

Conceptual and mathematical ecosystem models will be developed for each habitat by the EHP.
This is likely to involve separate formulations for each ecologically distinct region in the coastal
zone of the U.S. For example, Fonseca (1989) has suggested 6 such regions for scagrass: 1)
northeast coast, north of Chesapeake Bay; southeast temperate coast, Chesapeake Bay through
Georgia; 3) Florida and Gulf Coast, north of 28*N latitude; 4) Florida and Caribbean, south of
28*N latitude; 5) west coast, including Alaska; and 6) Hawaiian Islands and Pacific jurisdiction.

The modeling effort will focus on the way habitats respond to environmental change and the
effect of change on their ability to support living marine resources. Models will synthesize past
information as well as that produced by the EHP. The modeling approach will be inclusive;
functional health will be evaluated by the presence or absence of physical and biological
characteristics typical of undisturbed habitats, rather than on the basis of a few commercially
important species. A number syntheses are already available (e.g., Kusler and Kentula 1989) and
several modeling efforts are being supported in FY90 and FY91. However, it is too early to
predict the form and content of the mechanistic habitat models envisioned here.

At least one workshop will be held during FY91, including EHP PIs and experts on modeling.
The workshop objectives are: 1) to evaluate present knowledge of habitat function and change
analysis, including advances made as part of the EHP; 2) to identify the most promising
approaches for synthesizing and modeling this information; and 3) to determine the direction of
future research.

Ultimately, a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) will be developed for each
ecologically distinct region of the U.S. combining: 1) the models of habitat function; 2)
information derived from the habitat classification and change analysis; and 3) other spatial data
(e.g., demographic, land use, pollution, distribution of commercially important species, fisheries
yields, and economic activity). Thus, demographic patterns can be linked to wetland stability or
loss on an area specific basis. Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat change (loss) can be
related to changes in (loss of) fisheries productivity. Economic assessments can be made of
alternative management strategies. Achievement of this task will require program planning,
included in the proposed FY91 modeling workshop, and cooperative efforts of a multidisciplinary
team within and outside of NOAA. Regional habitat and fisheries managers require this type of
information synthesis and will be encouraged to participate in the planning for its generation.

IV. PRODUCTS

The EHP includes provisions for interpreting findings as they become available. Technical output
from these research efforts includes presentations at meetings (e.g., the American Fisheries
Society and the Estuarine Research Federation), symposia, workshops, reports to management
agencies, guidance documents, synthesis documents (e.g., maps and models), and peer reviewed
publications. The Sea Grant network will work with pertinent elements of NOAA (including
NOAA libraries and state Coastal Zone Management Programs) to develop and distribute
interpretive products for non-technical audiences.

The EHP has already developed a wide and diverse complement of potential users and
cooperators. These include both public and private sector individuals and organizations such as
coastal and state Fishery Management Councils, U.S. Axmy Corps of Engineers, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service,
Minerals Management Service, NMFS Habitat Conservation Division, NOAA Sea Grant Advisory
Services, and State Departments of Natural Resources, Departments of Environmental Regulation,
and Departments of Transportation. Two generic products that will be or have been provided
directly to these users are:

Information to assist NMFS Regional Offices in formulating their recommendations to
regulatory agencies on actions that may adversely affect habitats of living marine
resources.

Guideline documents (brochures) for Federal and state managers for the restoration and
construction of marsh and seagrass that are functionally equivalent to their naturally
occurring counterparts.

More specific products from research on habitat function and restoration are:

Participation in the September 1990 NOAA Habitat Restoration Symposium and
contribution to the FY 1991 Symposium publication.

Publication of proceedings from a turbidity standards workshop, including an evaluation
of how well these standards protect seagrasses.

Conceptual and mathematical models relating seagrass growth and functional value to
eutrophication, growth of phytoplankton and epiphytic algae, turbidity, and sediment
type.

Conceptual and mathematical models relating salt marsh growth and functional value
to hydroperiod and sediment accretion.

Improved wetland restoration methodologies through selection of specific genotypes
and micropropagation technology, and augmentation of sediment with organic matter.

More specific products from research on habitat mapping and change analysis are:

Completion of an operational protocol in December 1991, for determining habitat
classification and change in the coastal region of the U.S.

Habitat classification and change analysis maps for the Chesapeake Bay estuarine
drainage area (emergent wetlands and uplands, 1984 to 1988/1989) were completed in
FY90. Statistically verified maps will be produced in late FY91 or early FY92.

A change analysis map of SAV in North Carolina will be completed for southern Core
Sound (1985 to 1988).

A map of SAV in northern Core Sound and southeastern Pamlico Sound (Drum Inlet
to Ocracoke Inlet, 1988) is currently under production.

Completion of interagency agreements with EPA and states of Texas and Florida for
cooperative mapping and change analysis projects.

Report on assessing the health of emergent wetland habitats using remotely sensed data,
describing previous research, status of technology and knowledge, and future research
directions.

More specific products from research on synthesis and model development are:

Reports from workshop(s) on program synthesis and modeling.

V. DATA MANAGEMENT PLAN

A. Habitat Function and Restoration

Currently, research studies are being funded on the Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts. The
principal investigator for each funded study is ultimately responsible for data management and
development of the products required by the EHP. As noted under PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
AND REVIEW, component projects will be reviewed for organization, operation and
accomplishment. In addition, since proposals generally are funded for more than one year,
funding for out-years will be dependent upon demonstrated progress and peer-revicw.

B. Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis

The digital data base will be archived and disseminated in standard exchange formats as either
an optical disc or data tape. NOAA/NESDIS/NODC will distribute the data base on a cost-
recoverable basis to outside users. We are investigating the feasibility of hardcopy map
production by the NOAA/NOS on a cost-recoverable basis. For those participating in the
program, both the digital data and preliminary habitat classified maps will be provided through
the Manager by the group responsible for the processing of the imagery. Such copies will meet
programmatic needs: quality control, integration and archiving of data, guidance, oversight, and
planning.

VI. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND REVIEW

A. Program Management Committee

Overall responsibility for the estuarine habitat studies component of the Coastal Ocean Program
will rest in the hands of the Program Management Committee (PMC). The PMC will be charged
with: 1) long-range planning of research, analytical, and outreach activities; 2) developing future
implementation plans; 3) soliciting and selecting projects for funding; 4) broad oversight of
funded efforts to assure appropriate progress; 4) periodic reviews of program performance; and
5) effecting program revisions in response to changing factors such as available support, the
success or failure of funded efforts, and the needs of NOAA and the larger Federal community.
The PMC will report to the AA!s and will be the interface between the estuarine habitat studies
component of the Coastal Ocean Program and the Coastal Council.

The PMC is composed of six individuals as follows: 1) a senior OAR headquarters scientist; 2)
a senior NESDIS headquarters scientist; 3) an OAR Sea Grant director; 3) a NMFS laboratory
director; 4) a senior NMFS scientist; and 5) a representative from NMFS headquarters.
Representatives will possess both strong technical and organizational backgrounds and will be
expected to contribute actively to the formulation and conduct of the habitat studies program.

The PMC will not oversee field or day-to-day operational activities. However, the PMC has
selected a senior OAR headquarters scientist in the SAC as a Research Program Coordinator
and a senior NMFS, scientist as the mapping progrom coordinator. These two individuals are
coordinating the various research, mapping, and synthesis activities of the EHP.

B. Scientific Advisory Committee

Technical assistance and advice will be provided to the PMC by a Scientific Advisory Committee
(SAC). In FY 1990, the SAC consisted of eight members: four each representing OAR and
NMFS. A NMFS and an OAR senior scientist co-chaired the Committee. During FY 1991 this
committee will be expanded to include representation for habitat mapping and change analysis.
Like the members of the PMC, Advisory Committee appointees will possess both technical and
organizational skills germane to the development of a high-quality, national program of study
on estuarine habitats. The SAC will provide detailed information and technical assistance, as
needed, to enable the PMC to carry out its duties with regard to program planning,
implementation, and evaluation. This includes assembling short-term committees or ad hoc
groups of experts to evaluate potential approaches to new areas of study and to assist in the
review of research progress in funded EHP research areas.

As noted earlier, two interrelated areas of investigation will be emphasized in FY 1991: research
on the functioning and restoration of seagrasses and salt marshes, and assessment of the
distribution, abundance, type and change in vegetated wetlands. Topical committees reflecting
each of these areas and sub-elements, as necessary, will be established as proposals are selected
and funded. A representative of each investigative team will be invited to participate in the
appropriate topical committee. The topical committees are intended to promote interchange of
information regarding findings, opportunities for collaboration, and common problems.

7.2

The PMC will select a chairman for each topical committee. He or she will be added to the
membership of the SAC. As the estuarine program matures, the number and type of topical
committees will change, as will the size of the SAC. The link between topical committees and
the SAC should facilitate feedback to the PMC on the progress, problems, and needs of on-
going estuarine efforts.

C. Ad Hoc Committees

C.1. Proposal Review Panel

T`wo review panels were convened in FY90 to rank research proposals on seagrasses and salt
marshes. The panels were comprised of academic and Federal laboratory scientists external to
the program as well as representatives from the user community. No proposal review panels are
contemplated for FY91; the EHP has 8 projects awaiting funding which were approved by the
review panels in FY90, but which remain unsupported due to insufficient funds.

C.2. Program Review Panel

As necessary, the PMC will appoint a panel to review the organization, operation, and
accomplishments of the program and advise the PMC of any changes that seem desireable.
Representatives of the user community will be invited to participate on this Panel.

During FY 1991 PI's for the scagrass and salt marsh research projects will meet with the SAC and
PMC to review progress and recommend areas of research direction and emphasis for FY 1992
and beyond. This will include recommendations for phasing out as well as phasing in research
activities. 17his meeting will probably coincide with the modeling workshop described in the
section on Synthesis and Model Development.

For Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis, an external review panel will be established during
FY91 to review this program. The review panel will consist of representatives from appropriate
Federal and state agencies and from academia. The user community will be represented on this
panel. Additionally, reviews of both mapping components (SAV and emergent wetlands) took
place in FY90 and FY91 through site visits and Federal/state/academia protocol workshops.

D. Coordination and Interactions

Research on habitat function and restoration in the EHP builds on a broad base of previous work,
both inside and outside NOAA. Much of the existing data base on the amounts and types of
critical habitats in estuarine systems and the fishery species they support, is a result of previous
and ongoing research in the National Sea Grant Program and the National Marine Fisheries
Service.

NOAA's Habitat Mapping and Change Analysis effort under the EHP involves 4 of NOAA's Line
Organizations: the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Office of Oceanic and
Atmospheric Research (OAR), the National Ocean Service (NOS), and the National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). Extant land use and habitat
mapping data bases in other federal and state agencies will be used where feasible to minimize

data acquisition cost, supplement ground truth, and assist in verification. Current federal land
use/habitat mapping programs within the U.S. Departments of Interior, Agriculture, Defense, and
Commerce, as well as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration can provide valuable historical/collateral data for this program.
Portions of habitat mapping programs, ongoing in many states, will be incorporated into the
overall program where appropriate.

VII. PROGRAM BUDGET' (K)
90 91

A. Habitat Investigations

FY90 Starts 1,030 1,180
FY91 Starts 120

Total 1,030 1,300

B. Habitat Mapping and
Change Analysis

1 . Chesapeake Bay
prototype change
analysis 207 275

2. SAV mapping &
change analysis 142 165

3. Development of
operational
protocol 61 95

4. Site specific
projects to test
and refine protocol 235

5. Program management
and interagency
coordination 75

Total 4104 845b

GRAND TOTAL 1,440 2,145

aIncludes $80 K of Chesapeake Bay funds.

Includes $45K of Chesapeake Bay funds.

LITERATURE CITED

Ferguson, R.L., G.W. Thayer and T.R. Rice. 1980. Marine primary producers, p. 9-69. In F.J.
Vernberg and W. Vemberg (eds.) Functional adaptations of marine organisms. Academic
Press, NY.

Fonseca, M.S. 1989. Regional analysis of the creation and restoration of seagrass systems.
p. 175-198 In J.A. Kusler and M.E. Kentula (eds.). Wetland creation and restoration:
the status of the science. United States Environmental Protection Agency 600/3-89/038a,
October 1989.

Frayer, W.E., T.J. Monahan, D.C. Bowder and F.A. Graybill. 1983. Status and trends of
wetlands and deepwater habitats in the coterminous United States, 1950s to 1970s.
Colorado State Univ., Dept. Forest and Wood Sci., Ft. Collins, CO 32 p.

Kean, T.H., C. Campbell, B. Gardner, and W.K. Reilly. 1988. Protecting America's Wetlands:
An Action Agenda. The Final Report of the National Wetlands Policy Forum. The
Conservation Foundation, Washington, D.C. 69 pp.

Kenworthy, W.J., G.W. Thayer and M.S. Fonseca. 1988. The utilization of seagrass meadows
by fishery organisms, p. 548-560. In D.D. Hook et al. (eds.). The Ecology and
Management of Wetlands, Vol. 1. Timber Press, Oregon.

Kenworthy, W.J., M.S. Fonseca and G.W. Thayer. 1989. Project status report and proposed
scope of work for FY90. Beaufort Laboratory Report to U.S. Fish Wildl. Service on light
attenuation in Hobe Sound, FL.

Kusler, J.A. and M.E. Kentula. 1989. Welland creation and restoration: the status of the
science. United States Environmental Protection Agency 600/3-89/038a, October 1989.

Mager, A. Jr. and G.W. Thayer. 1986. Quantification of National Marine Fisheries Service
habitat conservation efforts in the southeast region of the United States from 1981 through
1985. Mar. Fish. Rev. 48:1-8.

Maltby, E. Waterlogged wealth. International Institute for environment and development.
London. 200 p.

National Marine Fisheries Service. 1983. Habitat Conservation; Policy for National Marine
Fisheries Service (NMFS). Federal Register, vol. 48, (No. 228): 53141-53147.

National Marine Fisheries Service. May 1990. Draft Habitat Conservation Policy Operational
Guidance. NOAA, NMFS, Office of Protected Resources, Silver Spring, MD 30 p.

Peters, D.S., D.W. Ahrenholz and T.R. Rice. 1979. Harvest and value of wetland associated fish
and shellfish, p. 606-617. In P.E. Greeson, J.R. Clark and J.E. Clark (eds.). Wetland
functions and values: The state of our understanding. Amer. Assoc. Water Resour. Assoc.,
Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Short, F.T., B.W. Ibelings, and C. den Hartog. 1988. Comparison of a current eelgrass disease
to the wasting disease of the 1930's. Aquat. Bot. 30: 295-301.

Short, F.T., L.K. MuchIstein and D. Porter. 1987. Eelgrass wasting disease: Cause and recurrence
of a marine epidemic. Biol. Bull. 173:557-562.

Short, F.T., J. Wolf, and G.E. Jones. 1989. Sustaining eelgrass to manage a healthy estuary.
Proc. Sixth Symp. Coast. Ocean Manag. p. 3689-3706.

Tiner, R.W., Jr. 1984. Wetlands of the United States: Current status and recent trends. U.S.
Dept. Int., Fish. Wildl. Serv., Washington, D.C. 59 p.

Thayer, G.W., W.J. Kenworthy, and M.S. Fonseca. 1984. The ecology of eelgrass meadows of
the Atlantic coast: A community profile. U.S. Fish. Wildl. Serv. FWS/OBS-84/24.
147 p.

Thayer, G.W., D.A. Wolfe and R.B. Williams. 1975. The impact of man on seagrass, systems.
Amer. Sci. 63:288-296.

The Conservation Foundation. 1988. Protecting America's Wetlands: An Action Agenda. Final
Report of the National Wetlands Policy Forum. Washington, DC 69 pp.

Zicman, J.C. 1982. The ecology of the seagrasses of south Florida: A community profile. U.S.
Fish Wildl. Serv. FWS/OBS-82/25. 185 p.

Zieman, J.C. and R.T. Zieman. 1989. The ecology of the seagrass meadows of the west coast
of Florida: A community profile. U.S. Fish Wildl. Serv. FWS/OBS-85(7:25). 155 p.

-77

NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM

Toxic Chemical Contaminants

FY91 Implementation Plan Contract

This plan represents an agreement between the NOAA Assistant Administrator
for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone Management, the NOAA Assistant
Administrator for Fisheries, and the Coastal Ocean Program Office Director
concerning the management and review processes, scientific and operational
procedures, products, and budget for implementing the Toxic Chemical
Contaminant component of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program in FY91.

Virginia K. Tippie, Assistant Administrator, NOS Date

William W. Fox, Assitant Administrator, NMFS Date

--------------------------------------------------------------- -----------
Don Scavia, Director, NOAA Coastal Ocean Program Date

COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR THE TOXIC
CHEMICAL CONTAMINANTS THEME AREA
.FY91

SUBMITTED TO THE
NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM OFFICE
March 19, 1991 _

COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM

FY91 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR THE TOXIC CHEMICAL
CONTAMINANTS THEME AREA

BACKGROUND

The functioning of the advanced technological society of this
country results in the release of major quantities of many different
potentially toxic substances to the environment. The waste waters
and solid wastes from our industrial and municipal treatment
facilities often contain appreciable quantities of toxic trace metals
and/or organic chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).
Our intensive agriculture spreads pesticides and herbicides across
many millions of acres each year. The exhausts from our millions of
automobiles discharge polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and
other substances resulting from the incomplete combustion of
gasoline engines. Our power plants release large amounts of sulfur
and nitrogen gases and other pollutants to the atmosphere while
burning coal and other fossil fuels for energy production. Our
domestic use of a wide variety of chemicals leads to their disposal
in garbage, sewage, and other means and their ultimate escape to the
environment. All in all the usage, with concomitant environmental
dispersal, of potentially toxic chemicals provides one of the major
underpinnings for the development of our society.

These toxic substances sometimes accumulate and become
immobilized for. long periods in specific areas on the land. This is
the intent with well-designed land fills and can also occur due to
natural processes such as adsorption of certain chemicals on soil
particles. Much of the toxic material, however, rather quickly finds
its way into our coastal and estuarine waters (including the Great
Lakes), either by direct discharge or by way of additions as part of
surface and ground water inputs or with atmospheric deposition.
There is a great deal of evidence showing the presence of
appreciable quantities of anthropogenic contaminants in certain U.S.
estuarine and coastal areas, especially in the vicinity of major
urban areas (e.g. McCain et al., 1989; National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, 1988, 1989; O'Connor et al., 1989;
Robertson, 1989; Robertson and O'Connor, 1989; Varanasi et al.,
1988, 1989a;

Much less is known concerning the ultimate fates of these
contaminants and especially concerning the effects they are having
on living resources and other organisms in the contaminated areas.
Very low trace concentrations of toxics in coastal environments
seem to cause no demonstrable harm. However, when the exposure
of the organisms in the environment exceeds a certain level,
undesirable biological effects start to occur. These can take many
forms ranging from directly obvious consequences such as fish kills
to more subtle and difficult to detect, but nevertheless often
serious, effects such as changes in feeding or predator avoidance
behavior or in vital life processes such as respiration and
reproduction. Toxic contaminants can also accumulate in living
marine resources at levels that pose a threat to human consumers of
these resources.

There are now a number of documented cases where toxic
contaminants have been found to have caused deleterious effects in
coastal environments. For example, there is a rapidly expanding
body of evidence linking exposure to the myriad of chemical
contaminants found in certain coastal urban bays and in rivers
connected to the Great Lakes to high prevalences of hepatic lesions,
including neoplasms, in bottom-dwelling fish. Hepatic neoplasms
have been reported in English sole (Parophry5__V&tU_ILM) residing in
urban bays of Puget Sound, Atlantic tomcod (Microgadus tomcod)
from the Hudson River Estuary, brown bullhead (Ictalurus nebulosus)
in waterways associated with the Great Lakes, winter flounder
(P@ f6udopleuronectes americanim) from Boston Harbor, and white
croaker (Genyonemus li-n -e-a-t-u-s-) in coastal waters adjacent to Los
Angeles. Other studies have identified pollution-associated
reproductive impairment in marine fish species, including English
sole and white croaker. These well-documented cases of effects of
toxics are in general, however, relatively few. There are many more
situations where toxics are known or suspected of being at
appreciably elevated levels, but where adequate information is not
available to determine what if any degradation has resulted in the
exposed biological community. The magnitude and extent of the
threats to our coastal environments from toxic substances and the
specific causes of these are not well understood.

Yet the resource managers and others who make the vital
decisions on regulation and protection of our coastal environments
need accurate and reliable information on toxics, their sources,
their accumulation and fate in the environment, and their effects on

?0I

populations and communities of exposed organisms. Such
information is crucial to provide the basis for making well informed
decisions on how to proceed with the development needed for our
economic growth, while still protecting our coastal environments
and the resources they provide so these are available for the benefit
of future generations.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
initiated a program in 1984, the National Status and Trends Program
(NS&T), to help provide such information on a national scale. The
purpose of this program is to determine the current status of, and to
detect changes that are occurring in, the environmental quality of
our nation's estuarine and coastal waters. The initial focus of the
program is on toxic contaminants.

The NS&T Program is composed of three primary components. The
first, Nationwide. Monitoring, measures the levels of toxic chemicals
and certain associated effects in biota and sediments. It provides
data for making spatial and temporal comparisons of contaminant
levels to determine which regions around our coasts are of greatest
concern regarding existing or developing potential for environmental
degradation. It includes measurements of concentrations of 24
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs); 20 congeners of
polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs); DDT, its breakdown products (DDD
and DDE), and 9 other chlorinated pesticides; butyltins; and 13 trace
elements in sediments, mussels, and oysters at about 250 regionally
representative sites through the Mussel Watch Project.
Additionally, determinations of the levels of the same chemicals in
bottom-dwelling fish and associated sediments are made through
the Benthic Surveillance Project at about 75 sites. The frequency of
external and internal disease conditions is documented in the fish
studied. Data from all monitored sites are stored in NOAA national
data bases and analyzed. These are made available to coastal and
marine resource managers and the public in a variety of formats and
reports.

The second component, Historical Trends Assessment, combines
new NS&T data with pertinent historical data to provide
assessments about priority environmental quality concerns. it
primarily involves a closer examination of the environmental
conditions in the regions that were indicated by the Nationwide
Monitoring component as having the highest levels of specific
contaminants and so the greatest potential for environmental

quality pro blems. Available NS&T data are synthesized with
literature information on the status and trends of toxic
contaminants and their effects in these regions to assess the
magnitude and extent of degradation to living resources and their
habitats. Detailed nationwide assessments are also conducted to
evaluate the present understanding of the distribution and possible
threat from these contaminants to U.S. coastal waters.

The third component, Biological Effects Surveys, consists of a
series of intensive two- to three-year studies primarily conducted
in those regions where the first and second components have
indicated a potential exists for substantial environmental
degradation. These studies are designed to provide detailed
assessments of the magnitude and extent of ecosystem degradation.
Most of these studies focus on living marine resources, especially
bottom-dwelling fish. Studies are carried on such aspects as
reproductive impairment, genetic damage, sediment toxicity, and
evaluation of new indicators of contamination, as well as on
contaminant concentration gradients in the biota.

The NS&T Program is very closely coordinated with the Near
Coastal component of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and
Assessment Program (EMAP-NC). A joint NOAA-EPA agreement to
determine the status, trends, and ecological effects of
anthropogenic stress in coastal and estuarine areas of the United
States has been signed. This agreement provides a mechanism for
co6rdination of NS&T and EMAP-NC planning activities leading to the
establishment of an unified NOAA-EPA program for monitoring the
status and trends of near coastal environmental quality and
ecological conditions. A joint committee to coordinate the two
programs meets approximately monthly. A merged quality
assurance/quality control project has been developed and future
peer reviews of the two programs will be conducted jointly. Where
the two programs are making the closely related measurements, i.e.
contaminant concentrations in fish and sediments, care has been
taken to assure the results can be merged by assuring that same
contaminants are measured. The data from the two programs will be
exchanged quickly and joint reports are being planned.

NOAA has also recently initiated a program, the Coastal Ocean
Program, that includes a theme area dealing with toxic chemical
contaminants and directed at developing the information needed by
decision makers concerning these contaminants. This paper presents

the FY91 implementation plan for the Toxic Chemical Contaminants
Theme Area and for the integration of the activities in this theme
area with those of the ongoing National Status and Trends Program.

OBJECTIVES

To develop improved information for resource management
decisions involving toxic contamination of our coastal environments,
the Toxic Chemical Contaminants theme area of the Coastal Ocean
Program has established the following long-term goals:

Assess the status and trends of environmental quality in
relation to levels and effects of toxic contamination in U.S.
marine, estuarine, and Great Lakes environments.

- Develop a predictive capability for effects of toxic
contamination on marine resources and human uses of these
resources.

The following more specific objectives have been established for
the program to guide the development of a monitoring, research, and
assessment program that will make a major contribution toward
achievement of these goals:

Objective 1. Assess the. magnitude and extent of environmental
deo@adation in U.S. coastal waters related to toxics contamination.

Obiective 2. Develop new, or improve existing, methodologies for
quantifying biological effects associated with exposures to
environmental contaminants, resulting in the enlargement of the
suite of bioindicators (e.g., measures of biochemical, immunological,
physiological, and histopathological changes) that best assess
contaminant-induced adverse biological effects in marine species.

Obiective 3. Establish the links between contaminant exposure
and significant biological effects in individual organisms, with
focus on effects with potential implications at the population and
community levels.

fs@'

APPROACH

The work conducted in Toxic Chemical Contaminants theme area
in FY91 will involve studies directed at these three objectives. The
Coastal Ocean Program initiated studies directed at the first two
objectives in FY90, and the activities in FY91 will be based on the
continuation and expansion of these ongoing efforts with the
addition of a series of studies directed toward the third objective.
Three programmatic elements presented below describe the studies
to implemented under these three objectives in FY91.

Element A: Assess Environmental Degradation in U.S. Coastal Waters

The NS&T Program presently provides broad national and regional
assessments of the levels of toxic contaminants and their effects
around the shores of the United States. However, because of the
spatial resolution and types of measurements that can be included in
this large-scale national monitoring, the results can not be used to
provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude and extent of our
coastal areas that are experiencing appreciable ecological
degradation from exposure to anthropogenic toxic materials. A
series of systematic multi-year field surveys was initiated in FY90
as part of the Coastal Ocean Program to provide such estimates by
measuring selected biological indicator properties in all coastal
areas where substantially elevated levels of toxics have been found
by'fhe NS&T Program. The results will be used to provide estimates
concerning magnitude and extent of degradation in each of the areas
studied and will also be cumulated, when all areas have been
surveyed, to provide an overall national estimate.

These surveys have a secondary but important purpose related to
objective #2 above; that is to provide a means to test promising new
bioeffects indicators under operational field conditions. As the
bioeffects surveys in each area involve several independent
measures of contaminants effects, the surveys provide an excellent
and relatively inexpensive opportunity to compare the performance
of promising new indicators with the results from well-established
measures to aid in establishing the value and interpretation of the
results from the developmental tests.

The bioeffects surveys include tests to determine such
properties as sediment toxicity to sensitive organisms, reproductive

@69

impairment and genetic damage in important fish species, indicators
of contaminant-induced stress in sessile indigenous invertebrates,
and evaluations of changes in bottom fauna and community structure
related to levels of contamination. Teams of experts from both
inside and outside of NOAA participate in these surveys with funding
being provided to NMFS, academic, and private enterprise scientists
to carry out the work. In the preliminary stages of each survey
extensive discussions through phone calls and visits are conducted
with the organizations that are conducting and/or coordinating
monitoring and assessment programs related to marine and
estuarine toxic contamination in the area. Cooperative projects are
developed and carried out wherever practicable. The primary
criterion for selection of the survey areas is the level of
contamination, with all areas with substantial indications of
contamination by toxics ultimately included. The secondary
criterion is the potential to carry out cooperative activities.

In FY91 surveys already initiated for the moderately
contaminated Tampa Bay and the highly contaminated Hudson-
Raritan Estuary and Boston Harbor will be continued. In addition a
new survey will be initiated for contaminated coastal waters near
Los Angeles in the California Bight. The bioeffects studies in these
areas will include:

Tampa BsU--An initial study in this bay in FY90 provided
preliminary evidence of contaminant effects in the hardhead
4datfish. This study will be continued in FY91 and will provide
expanded information on the distribution in Tampa Bay of
target fishes (both the open-water hardhead catfish and a
shallow-water species) and blue crabs exhibiting evidence of
contaminant exposure, histopathological alterations, and early
biochemical effects. Two further studies will be added in
FY91. One will follow up on initial indications from other
investigators of contaminant effects in oysters by measuring a
number of indicators of oyster relative health at a series of
sites along a gradient of contamination in Tampa Bay. The
second will carry out a survey of sediment biotoxicity at a
number of sites in Tampa Bay. It will particularly investigate
sediment toxicity in those part of Tampa Bay in which
previously measured concentrations of certain contaminants
have been found to exceed postulated effects thresholds for
animals exposed to sediments (Long and Morgan, 1990). This
survey will use bioassays tests employing an echinoderm (sea

urchin), a crustacean (Ampelisca abj@,U), and a mollusc (oyster
larvae).

Hudson-Raritan Estuary -Work funded in FY90 in the Hudson-
Raritan Estuary is measuring a number of bioindicators of
reproductive impairment in winter flounder, acute sediment
toxicity to several indicator organisms, contaminant trends in
sediment cores, and ambient water toxicity of copper and zinc
at various sites in this estuary. These studies are still in
progress and will be continued during FY91 with no further
funding. One additional study will be added in this estuary for
FY91 to investigate the occurrence of sublethal indications of
sediment toxicity. This study will employ sediment bioassays
of growth in a polychaete (Armandia) and an echinoderm
(sanddollar). It is believed that these tests can provide
indications of the long-term cumulative toxicity effects of
sediments to supplement and augment the information on acute
toxicity already being acquired.

Boston Harbor -Bioeffects studies concerning sediment
toxicity and reproductive impairment of fish (winter flounder)
and molluscs (mussels) in Boston Harbor have already been
carried out using NOS/OMA base funds. A study expanding the
work commenced in FY90 concerning reproductive impairment
in mussels will be conducted in FY91. This study will examine
the relationship between bioconcentration levels of lipophilic;
organic contaminants and measures of effects on reproductive
processes in mussels from sites in Boston Harbor and Buzzards
Bay

Southern California--A new bioeffects survey will be initiated
in Southern California coastal bays and estuaries in the
vicinity of Los Angeles during FY91. This work will be
coordinated with a new State of California program to develop
and test assessment tools for marine and estuarine sediment
quality. The California program will include surveys of
sediment toxicity and contaminant distributions in sediments
and measures of biological response to contaminants in bivalve
molluscs (both indigenous and caged). Through participation in
the planning for, and subsequent cooperation with, the
California program, NOAA can greatly increase the expected
value from our projected level of effort in this region.

P f/
00

Past work in the Southern California Bight has indicated a
variety of biological responses to contaminants, especially in
the vicinity of Palos Verdes and San Pedro Bay. Hepatic multi-
function oxydase (MFO) activities have been found to be
elevated in white croaker from these regions compared with
fish from Dana Point (Cross and Hose, 1987); also elevated
hepatic glutathione levels in sculpins and other species
relative to those found in Santa Monica Bay have been detected
(Brown et al.,1987). Female white croaker and kelp bass from
San Pedro Bay both have shown reduced rates of spawning in
response to gonadotropin injection, decreased fecundity, and
reduced fertilization success, compared to reference fish from
Dana Point (Cross and Hose, 1988, 1989; Hose et al., 1989).

It is proposed to further evaluate the spatial extent of
contaminant bioeffects in fish and to confirm the relationship
of any reproductive detriment to contaminants. One of more
species of territorial inshore species of fish will be collected
from selected coastal lagoons and bays at several locations
along the coast between San Diego and Los Angeles. Spawning
success will be correlated with other direct measures of
contaminant exposure and response, including fluorescent
aromatic compounds in bile, hepatic MFO activities and
glutathione levels, DNA adducts, and liver histopathologies.
Levels of organic contaminants will also be measured in the
..livers and gonads of these fish.

The State of California is presently designing an extensive
survey of sediment toxicity and contaminants in coastal areas
statewide. The NOAA project on bioeffects in fish will select
sampling locations in the Southetn California Bight to coincide
with some of those in the broader state survey, in order to
take advantage of that extensive source of data.

Element B: Develop New and Iml2rove Existing Methods fQ[
Quantifying Bioeffects of Toxigs

At present, the NS&T monitoring program measures the
concentrations of a relatively large number of contaminants in biota
and sediments, but includes o,-,!y a few routine measurements of
indicators of biological effects. Further, the biological effects

9"11-

measured in the NS&T Program include some relatively severe
effects, such as liver lesions in benthic fishes and mortality of
organisms (e.g., amphipods) exposed to sediments in acute bioassays.
While these measurements have considerably enhanced our
understanding of the potential impact of pollutants on aquatic
ecosystems by linking the presence of certain contaminants to
observed biological effects, these biological effects generally occur
only in highly contaminated environments and hence cannot be used
either to distinguish among organisms exposed to moderate, low and
no contamination or to predict deterioration of environmental
quality.

This lack of sensitive biological indices to assess environmental
quality has led to considerable interest in gaining a better
understanding of the underlying mechanisms that govern
contaminant-induced alterations in marine organisms and evaluating
a suite of indices that measure contaminant-induced alterations in
marine organisms. These indices are defined as bioindicators and
they include measurements of contaminant exposure and responses
at the biochemical, physiological, and organismal level.
Measurements of contaminants and their metabolites in tissues and
fluids of organisms are also defined as bioindicators of exposure
because biochemical and physiological processes within an organism
influence both the level and distribution of these compounds.

Important factors supporting the use of bioindicators, as an
effdctive means of improving aquatic environmental monitoring
strategies are that (a) measurements can be made on indigenous
organisms; (b) the concurrent use of several relatively inexpensive
tests should provide a better assessment of stress from exposure to
complex mixtures of xenobiotic compounds present in contaminated
environments than measurement of a single indicator; and (c) with
further knowledge, biochemical and physiological indices may serve
as early-warning signals of population or community effects.
However, prior to inclusion of any bioindicator in a large-scale
monitoring program, it should be (a) shown to be linked to
contaminant exposure; (b) tested in the laboratory to establish the
range of sensitivity by conducting dose- and time-response studies;
and (c) validated in small-scale field studies with one or two well-
understood species.

Studies will be conducted under this element in FY91 in two
major categories: 1. To test the applicability of recently developed

bioindicators in target fish species of NOAA's National Status and
Trends Program. These bioindicators are: hepatic aryl hydrocarbon
hydroxylase (AHH) activity, levels of DNA-xenobiotic adducts in
liver, and levels of fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) in bile.
2. To develop and evaluate new bioindicators of contaminant
exposure and effects in fish species for incorporation in the
assessment of environmental quality. The bioindicators to be
investigated include indices of oxidative damage, altered
immunocompetence, and altered heme metabolism. These studies are
designed to expand the suite of bioindicators in fish available for use
in biomonitoring programs such as the NS&T Program or EPA's
Environmental Monitoring and Prediction Program (EMAP), with
emphasis on identifying bioindicators that may be directly linked to
serious biological effects. A research proposal describing the
experimental design during the first three years of this project has
been prepared and peer-reviewed by two outside academic reviewers
and by reviewers' from inside NOAA. All reviewers gave the proposal
high marks and several helpful suggestions were received and are
being incorporated.

Briefly, three bioindicators have been recently developed for use
in the Benthic Surveillance Project of the NS&T Program to assess
contaminant exposure and effects in bottomfish. Levels of FACs in
bile have been measured in every Cycle of the Benthic Surveillance
Project thus far, and hepatic activities of AHH have been measured
beginning in Cycle V (1988). The measurement of FACs is useful
bethuse it provides an estimation of exposure to aromatic
compounds, such as aromatic hydrocarbons, which usually cannot be
measured directly in tissues because of extensive and rapid
metabolism of these compounds by fish (Krahn et al., 1986; Varanasi
et al., 1989b). Hepatic AHH activity is a sensitive indicator of
exposure to a variety of chemical contaminants, including aromatic
hydrocarbons, chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, and petroleum
compounds, and represents a very early physiological response to
such exposure (Payne et al., 1987). Additionally, during the
metabolism of xenobiotic chemicals, such as polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (PAHs), reactive metabolites are formed that can
covalently bind to the genetic material, DNA, to form DNA-xenobiotic
adducts. Recently, a very sensitive technique (32P-postlabeling) has
been developed (Gupta and Randerath, 1988) and shown to be able to
detect DNA-xenobiotic adducts in feral fish (Dunn et al., 1987;
Varanasi et al., 1989c; Stein et al., 1989). The measurement of these
adducts provides an assessment of exposure to genotoxic compounds,

and because this type of DNA damage can be linked to more severe
biological effects, such measurements may be very important in
establishing causal relationships between contaminant exposure and
damage to living marine resources (Stein et al., 1989; Schiewe et al.,
1990).

To date, results from the use of bioindicators in the Benthic
Surveillance Project (FACs and AHH) have shown that these two
indicators are generally responsive to contaminant exposure of
target fish species, but there appear to be substantial species
differences in the magnitude of the responses (Varanasi et al., 1988
and 1989a; Collier et al., 1989). Each of these measures has been
shown to be increased in one target species (English sole) after
exposure to organic solvent extracts of a contaminated sediment, in
a time- and dose-responsive manner (Collier and Varanasi, 1987), but
the responses of other target species used in the NS&T Program have
not been similarly tested. Similarly, levels of DNA-xenobiotic
adducts in English sole have been shown to increase after exposure to
extracts of contaminated sediments (Varanasi et al., 1989c).
However, time course and dose-response data are still needed for
this species, and hepatic DNA adducts have not yet been examined in
the other Benthic Surveillance target species. Only through the use
of data obtained from detailed studies relating time- and dose-
response to chemical contaminants can results from different
species be usefully compared in the Benthic Surveillance Project.
Accordingly, a major initial effort under this element will involve
th6"' systematic validation and comparison of these recently
developed bioindicators in fish species.

It is also desirable to increase our suite of available
bioindicators for use in biomonitoring programs by developing
bioindicators. that are more specific for certain types of biological
effects than those currently in use, or which provide information
about differing mechanisms through which biological damage may
occur. Such effects include alterations in immunocompetence, early
indications of cellular injury; changes in heme metabolism, which
may lead to porphyria; or measures of oxidative damage from
metabolic formation of reactive oxygen species.

The reason so few bioeffects measurements have been included
to date in the Monitoring Program to assess environmental quality is
largely that only a few measures have been clearly shown to be
reliable indicators of the level of exposure or response of organisms

to toxic contaminants. The work proposed in this element is aimed
at identifying improved bioindicators of toxic contamination for
implementation in large-scale biomonitoring programs. The
emphasis will be placed on developing additional indicators of
subtle, adverse biological effects that result directly from
contaminant exposure. Moreover, the determination of multiple
bioindicators of exposure and effects should provide better cause
and effect linkages which will be invaluable in understanding the
susceptibility or resistance of different species to contaminant-
induced effects (Varanasi et al. 1991). Making exposure and effect
measurements in the same organisms will enhance our ability to
develop statistical models to assess if a certain level of
contaminant exposure is predictive of a certain biological response
or perturbation in the exposed population.

Element C: Establish Links Between Contamingnt Exposure and
Sianificant Biolggical Effects

NOAA's ongoing national environmental monitoring programs have
found that urbanized and industrialized estuarine and coastal areas
have high concentrations of contaminants in their sediments and in
the tissues of the organisms which inhabit these affected regions. In
some of the highly contaminated areas, resident species are showing
signs of impaired health which appear to be caused by chronic
exposure to contaminants. Studies have equated chemical
corIfAminant exposure to growth inhibition, organ dysfunction, and
reproductive impairment. And in some locations, contaminant levels
are sufficiently high to cause mortality to primary prey organisms
(copepods) (Sunda et al., 1990). Significant declines in estuarine
populations are believed to be related to the combined effects of
chemical pollution, habitat loss and degradation, harvesting
practices, and other factors. The bioeffects research described here
is aimed at understanding the role chemical pollution plays in this
overall problem.

Bioeffects Research under Element C seeks to relate
concentrations of toxic chemicals in the near coastal ocean
environment to effects on marine organisms. A primary need is to
gain a sufficient understanding of how contaminants affect key
species at critical points in their development and their
reproduction. Studies will be undertaken to develop an
understanding of the processes that link chemical contaminants to

biological effects at the individual organism level. Results from
such studies should eventually enhance our ability to assess and
predict the effects of a broad spectrum of chemical contaminants on
populations of key marine species and their associated communitie 's.
It will provide environmental managers with scientifically valid
information for decision making.

Funding of research under this element will be initiated in FY91
and will aimed at establishing linkages between contaminant
exposure and significant biological effects in individuals. Even
though the ultimate goal of contaminant research is to demonstrate
effects at the population or ecosystem level, it is first necessary to
establish the mechanisms and sequences of events required to
produce demonstrable effects in individuals. Therefore, the primary
effort within this element will be to establish relationships between
the environment, contaminant exposure, and biological processes in
marine biota. Research should be concentrated on measuring effects
in individuals that appear most likely to have implications at the
population level, namely, studying parameters that affect survival,
growth, and reproduction.

For FY1991, funding will be limited to species and locales for
which there is already ample documented evidence of biological
effects occurring (i.e., lesions, disease, DNA damage, reproductive
impairment, abnormal behavior) and for which there is a reasonable
suspicion (but not necessarily a firm link) that the observed effects
ardt'related to contaminant exposure. For these species, some field
and/or laboratory studies should have already been done which
correlate pollutants to specific biological effects.

Three parameters that are measurable at the individual level
which seem most likely to cause widespread, deleterious population
effects are decreases in: growth, fecundity, and survival.
Accordingly, the program element will be structured as a series of
research studies that are designed to flesh out the conceptual model
given below.

CONTAMINANT EXPOSURE
Bioindicators of exposure

EARLY WARNING RESPONSES
- Bioindicators of stress

BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
impaired growth
impaired fecundity
decreased survival

Successful measurement of processes and and parameters that
establish links between contaminant exposure and the above three
biological endpoints, either directly or indirectly by studying for
effects such as diseases, reproductive dysfunction,disease
resistance etc, will drive the design of research projects. This
element will strive to embrace studies on a variety of vertebrate and
invertebrate species at different stages of their development and
from a variety of geographic locations. It is critical to understand
the processes that control these endpoints at the level of the
individual before we can even begin to evaluate the impacts of
altered survival, fecundity, or growth in the context of populations
or ecosystems.

. As discussed below, a variety of studies could be conducted under
th6#1.overall structure of this element. However,limited funding in
FY1991 for this element will allow initiation of only a few of these
studies:
perform environmentally relevant dose/response
experiments to establish the cause-and-effect
relationship between contaminants and biological effects.
determine the long term effects, if any, of a brief pulse of
contaminant exposure on migratory species(e.g., salmon)
during an early life stage.
determine the varying sensitivities to exposure of an
organism at different stages in its life cycle, with an
emphasis on early life stages.
--determine which parts of the reproductive process may be
impaired due to contaminant exposure (i.e., gonadal
maturation, hormonal regulation, fecundity, spawning, and
egg/larvae survival) to develop an understanding of the
physiological or molecular mechanisms by which it occurs.

determine cause and effect relationships between
reproductive impairment and the uptake
(bioaccumulation)
and fate (bioconversion) of toxic contaminants.
determine how the timing, duration, and sequencing of
reproductive events are impaired by contaminant
exposure for selected commercially and recreationally
important estuarine fish.
determine the hatchability, viability, and survivability
of offspring from contaminated sites as related to the
body burden of contaminants in the tissues of spawners.
assess effects on subsequent generations (filial effects)
-in situ environmental chamber studies to determine
factors affecting growth and survival of the early life
stages of key species (to link laboratory and field
research).

The research conducted under this element will produce an
information base that could be used to identify and predict
significant toxic chemical contamination problems in coastal
environments. While there are at present no established cases where
fish population variations can be clearly attributed to contaminant
inputs, it is believed that such declines could be occurring. One way
to test for population-level effects is through checking within a
single species for large alterations in individual members' growth,
fec.undity, and survival. These endpoints may serve as measurable
indibes of that species' overall well-being within the affected
habitat. It is hoped that eventually these studies will begin to
address this important issue of populations effects in at least a few
resource species. By understanding these linkages one can begin to
identify and restore areas showing substantial degradation by
contaminants. One may also be able to identify high risk areas
showing early warning signs of effects which therefore should
receive rapid attention to mitigate further damage.

Well conceived and executed research under this element C,
combined with data generated from elements A & B should assist in
the development of alternative management schemes to reduce
pollution and to make recommendations for restoration efforts.

PRODUCTS

Element A--The bioeffects surveys are composed of a number of
separate studies documenting various aspects of the magnitude and
extent of contaminant bioeffects in each of the areas of concern. A
number of reports and articles describing the results of these
individual studies will be published, primarily in peer-review
journals. At the completion of the survey in an area of concern, a
NOAA Technical Memorandum report will be published focusing on
that area and summarizing the results and conclusions from the
studies conducted there and assessing our knowledge concerning
magnitude and extend of the biological effects due to toxic
contaminants. These summary reports will undergo thorough peer
review by reviewers from both inside and external to NOAA.
Synthesis reports assessing the national extent of environmental
degradation due to toxics will be published when all or almost of the
primary regions of concern have been surveyed.

Element B._-The bioindicator research will.result in the
development and evaluation of new and improved bioindicators for
assessing contaminant exposure and associated effects on individual
organisms and on populations of living marine resources in U.S.
waters. Peer-reviewed NOAA reports and scientific articles in peer-
review journals documenting the development of these indicators,
specifying how they should be measured, and evaluating their utility
wiW"be produced.

Element C--The research on the links between exposure and
effects will be conducted as a number of separate research projects,
and these will lead to the publication of peer-reviewed scientific
articles and reports. Periodically the participants in the activities
of the Toxics Chemical Contaminants Theme will cooperate to
develop summary reports on the status of the research and
assessment being conducted in this theme area and to recommend
priorities for the future directions of work.

DATA MANAGEMENT

Element A--The intensive bioeffects surveys will collect data on
fish and invertebrate reproductive properties, prevalence of DNA
adducts, acute and sublethal sediment toxicity, biochemical

indicators of stress, and other biological properties as well as on
bioaccumulation and sediment levels of chemical contaminants. The
principal investigator for each one of the studies conducted as part
of these surveys will be the primary contact for these data. The data
will be available within two years of the completion of the field
work and will be maintained by the principal investigator. The data
will also be included in the final reports from the studies. After
submission of these final reports, NOS/OAD will maintain copies and
will make copies available on request.

Element 13@-The data collected from the studies to develop new
and improve existing bioindicators will be primarily laboratory
results measuring such properties as the levels of hepatic aryl
hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity, DNA-xenobiotic adducts in livers,
and fluorescent aromatic compounds in bile from winter flounder,
Atlantic croaker, and white croaker. The principal investigator
(Environmental Conservation Division, NWFC) for this study will be
the primary contact for these data. These data will be available
within one year of the completion of the dose-effect laboratory
studies and will be maintained by the principal investigator. The
data will be included in the reports from this work and copies of
these reports will be available on request from the principal
investigator.

Element a_-The data collected in the research to establish links
between exposure and effects will be defined in the proposals for
wdfk in this area. Funded principal investigators will be required to
submit their data in a final report within one years of completion of
their studies and copies of these final reports will be available from
the Program Office in NOMAD.

Data management in all the studies outlined in this plan will be
handled as an integral part of the studies and will not be funded
separately. The number of data points gathered by any one study will
be relatively few and will measure a number of properties; further
the properties measured will be differ among the studies. Thus, it is
more efficient to integrate data management into the individual
studies rather than to have it handled as a separate component
across the theme area.

PROGRAM MANAGEMENT

The final management responsibility for planning and carrying
out the Toxic Chemical Contaminants Theme program is with both
the Assistant Administrator for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone
Management and the Assistant Administrator for Fisheries. To carry
out these responsibilities, the management structure in the
following diagram has been established.

MANAGEMENT
COMMITTEE

TECHNICAL ADVISORY TOXIC CONTAMINANTS
COMMITTEE THEME TEAM

MANAGER MANAGER

1310EFFECTS SURVEYS BIOEFFECTS RESEARCH

The composition and responsibilities of the components in this
structure are:

Management Committee--This three-person committee is
composed of the cochairs of the Theme Team, one from NMFS and one
from NOS, plus a representative from the scientific community
external to NOAA who is an expert in the area of contamination of
the marine environment by toxic chemicals. This non-NOAA member
is selected by the Theme Cochairs in consultation with the Director
of the Coastal Ocean Program Office. The Management Committee is
responsible for overall management of the Toxic Chemical
Contaminants Program including: (1) setting and revising guidelines
for the general direction of the Program, (2) developing and

submitting to the Coastal Ocean Program Office the long-term and
the annual implementation plans for the work in this Program, (3)
obtaining scientific review of studies proposed in the Program, (4)
making decisions concerning funding for the studies conducted by
the Program, (5) providing broad oversight of the funded studies to
assure satisfactory progress, and (6) carrying out periodic reviews
of overall program progress. The Management Committee reports to
the Assistant Administrator for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone
Management, the Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, and to
NOAA's Coastal Council, and is the interface between the Toxic
Chemical Contaminants Theme of the Coastal Ocean Program and the
Council.

Toxic Chemical Contaminants Tbeme Team--This team is
composed of NOAA scientists and scientific managers who are
actively involved in programs related to toxic chemical
contaminants. They are selected by and represent their NOAA line
offices on the team. The primary function of the team is to provide
advice and guidance to the Management Committee. It assists in the
long-term planning for the program and in providing
recommendations on the specific types of studies that should be
conducted. The team members provide input to the Program
regarding the interests of their Line Office and its scientists in
participating in the Toxics Program and also provide information
about the Program to interested persons within their offices.

Technical Advisory Committee -This committee is composed of
five scientists/scientific managers from outside of NOAA who are
@0_x ic - ---
experts in the area of contamination by chemicals in the
marine environment. It is chaired by the non-NOAA member of the
Management Committee, and its members are selected by this
committee in consultation with the Director of the Coastal Ocean
Program Office. This Technical Advisory Committee reviews, and
provides advice on how to improve,, the overall scientific quality of
the Program. More specifically it also reviews and evaluates all in-
house NOAA studies both as these are being proposed for inclusion in
the Program and as they are being conducted. It provides its
evaluations and recommendations on these studies to the
Management Team, and the Team will not approve funding for studies
judged to be of poor scientific quality by the Technical Advisory
Committee.

Bioeffects Surveys and Bioeffects Research Proiects--The Toxic
Chemical Contaminants Program is subdivided into two major
projects that are managed separately. One project is responsible for
the Bioeffects Survey component of the Program (Element A), while
the second is responsible for the Bioeffects Research component,
which includes the studies concerned with developing new and
improved indicators of biological effects (Element B) and those
directed at obtaining the linkage between exposure and these effects
(Element C). Both projects are directed by a project manager
selected by the Management Committee. Projects may be redefined,
added, or subtracted in future years as deemed appropriate by the
Management Committee in consultation with the Theme Team and the
Coastal Ocean Program Office. Funds allocated for each of the
projects are to be distributed to appropriate Project Manager's Line
Office for disbursement. The Project Managers for the Bioeffects
Survey and Bioeffects Research Projects are presently the NOS and
NMFS cochairs of the Management Committee, respectively. The
project managers have responsibility for the detailed management
of their projects. They develop guidelines and specifications for the
studies to be conducted in their project, obtain proposal for carrying
out these studies, and provide recommendations to the Management
Team as to which proposals to fund and the levels of funding
required. They assure peer-review of all proposed research studies,
including at least two reviews from outside of NOAA for each
proposal. They provide support to the Technical Advisory Committee
in Jts assessment of the scientific quality of all studies conducted
in-Nouse by NOAA. They oversee evaluation and review of the
studies in their project and provide assessment to the Management
Team and Coastal Council on these matters as appropriate.

The procedures used to plan and implement the studies in the
each of the three elements are as follows: Element A-(Bioeffects
Surveys): The first step in planning a survey is to develop a report
summarizing and synthesizing the existing information on
occurrence and distribution of toxic contaminants and associated
biological effects in the specific survey area. A survey proposed to
be conducted in that area is then planned based on this summary and
in close consultation with scientists and resource managers who
have experience in the specific geographical area. The plan for each
area is sent to scientific and resource management experts in the
geographical area under consideration for their review and is
revised based on this review. At least once a year, the Technical
Review Committee reviews the overall scientific competence and

A@ /

relevancy of the studies carried out in this element. Element B
(Bioeffects Indicator Development): To take advantage of NOAA's
extensive experience and interest in development of bioindicators,
the studies in this element are carried out by scientists from within
NOAA, although subcontracting to other organizations is encouraged
as appropriate. All proposed studies are reviewed both through
peer-review (at least two outside NOAA reviewers) and by the
Technical Review Committee. Element C (Bioeffects Research): The
research studies concerning the linkage between contaminant
exposure and bioeffects (Element Q is carried out through a
competitive proposal procedure. An RFP detailing the scientific area
of interest and the criteria by which proposals will be judged is
developed and distributed. The proposals received are peer-
reviewed (at least two outside NOAA reviewers) and the
Management Team makes the final selections based on the peer-
review and the recommendations of the Project Manager.

REVIEW

Proposals for research studies to be conducted in this theme area
are peer-reviewed, including at least two reviews from outside
NOAA. The peer reviewers are asked to evaluate the proposals for
intrinsic technical merit relative to the following concerns: (1)
applicability of the proposed study toward meeting the theme and
p rqj, ect objectives, (2) use of the best available data and
inf6rmation for planning and conducting the study, (3)
appropriateness and scientific validity of proposed research design
and testing methodologies, and (4) background, experience, and
scientific competence of the proposed investigators to carry out the
proposed study. For the parts of the Program where substantial
numbers of proposals are expected a Proposal Review Panel is
established comprised of distinguished scientists external to the
Program. These panels evaluate the scientific merit of the proposed
research and advise the Project Manager and the Management
Committee on the merits of and modifications recommended for the
submitted proposals. In FY91 it is the intent to establish such a
panel for the proposals received to carry out studies under Element
C. The Project Managers will make recommendations on funding
decisions in their respective projects to the Management Committee
based on the results of these reviews and on the cost effectiveness
of the proposed studies. Proposals with cost sharing, matching

funds, or other mechanisms to increase cost effectiveness in the use
of the Coastal Ocean Program funds will be especially encouraged.

In addition to the peer review of proposals, the program in this
theme area will be reviewed periodically by a panel of outside experts
to evaluate the scientific competence and relevance of the work being
conducted. These reviews will be held approximately biennially and
will be organized by the Management Team in conjunction with the
Technical Advisory Committee.

LITERATURE CITED

Arkoosh, M. R. and S. L. Kaaftari. 1990. Quantification of fish
antibody to a specific antigen by an enzyme linked immunosorbent
assay (ELISA). in Techniques in Fish Immunology (J. Stolen, T. C.
Fletcher, B. S. Robertson, and W. B. van Muiswinkel, eds.). S.O.S.
Publications, New Jersey. (in press)

Casillas, E. and W. E. Ames. 1986. Hepatotoxic effects of C14 on
English sole (Parol2hrys y&Jv-1uW: Possible indicators of liver
dysfunction. J. Fish Biol. 84C: 397-400.

Collier, T. K. and U. Varanasi 1987. Biochemical indicators of
contaminant exposure in flatfish from Puget Sound, WA, pp. 1544-
1549. In: Proceedings Oceans '87; Marine Technology Society and
Oce"a'nic Engineering Society, IEEE.

Collier, T.K., B-T. L. Eberhart, J. E. Stein and U. Varanasi. 1989. Aryl
hydrocarbon hydroxylase-a 'new' monitoring tool in the Status &
Trends Program, pp. 608-610. In: Proceedings Oceans '89; Marine
Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

Cross, J. N. and J. E. Hose. 1988. Evidence for impaired reproduction
in white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus) from contaminated areas off
Southern California. Mar. Environ. Res. 24: 185-188

Cross, J. N. and J. E. Hose. 1989. Reproductive impairment in two
species of fish from contaminated areas off Southern California,
382-384. In: Proceedings Ocean '89. Volume 2: Ocean Pollution.
Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

ILI) 3

Dunn, B. P., J. J. Black and A. Maccubbin. 1987. 32P-postlabeling
analysis of aromatic DNA adducts in fish from polluted areas.
Cancer Res. 47: 6543-6548.

Gupta, R. C. and K. Randerath 1988. Analysis of DNA adducts by 32p-
labeling and thin layer chromatography, pp. 399-418. In: DNA
Repair, Vol. 3 (Friedberg, E. C. and P. C. Hanawalt, eds.). Marcel
Dekker, Inc., New York.

Hose, J. E., J. N. Cross, S. G. Smith, and D. Diehl. 1989*. Reproductive
impairment in a fish inhabiting a contaminated coastal environment
off Southern California. Environ. Poll. 59.

Krahn, M. M., L. D. Rhodes, M. S. Myers, L. K. Moore, W. D. MacLeod, Jr.,
and D. C. Malins. 1986. Associations between metabolites of
aromatic compounds in bile and the occurrence of hepatic lesions in
English sole (ParoQhyryayg1u1u) from Puget Sound. Arch. Environ.
Contam. Toxicol. 15: 61-67.

Long, E. R. and L. G. Morgan. 1990. The potential for biological
effects of sediment-sorbed contaminants tested in the National
Status and Trends Program. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, National Ocean Service, Seattle, WA. NOAA Tech.
Memo. NOS OMA 52,175 pp. + Appendices A-G.

McCain, B. B., S.-L. Chan, M. M. Krahn, D. W. Brown, M. S. Myers, J. T.
La'ndahl, S. Pierce, R. C. Clark, Jr., and U. Varanasi. 1989. Results of
the National Benthic Surveillance Project (Pacific Coast): 1987, pp.
590-596. In: Proceedings Ocean '89. Volume 2: Ocean Pollution.
Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1988. National
Status and Trends Program for Marine Environmental Quality:
Progress report--A summary of selected data on chemical
contaminants in sediments collected during 1984, 1985, 1986, and
1987. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Ocean Service, Rockville, MD. NOAA Tech. Memo. NOS OMA 44,15 pp.,
+ Appendices A-D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1989. National
Status and Trends Program for Marine Environmental Quality:
Progress report--A summary of data on tissue contamination from

MLI

the first three years (1986- 1988) of the Mussel Watch Project.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean
Service, Rockville, MD. NOAA Tech. Memo. NOS OMA 49, 22 pp., +
Appendices A-C.

O'Connor, T. P., J. E. Price, and C. A. Parker. 1989. Results from
NOAA's National Status and Trends Program on distributions,
effects, and trends of chemical contamination in the coastal and
estuarine United States, pp. 569- 572. In: Ocean '89. Volume 2:
Ocean Pollution. Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering
Society, IEEE.

Payne, J. F., L. L. Fancey, A. D. Rahimtula, and E. L. Porter. 1987.
Review and perspective on the use of mixed-function oxygenase
enzymes in biological monitoring. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. 86C: 233-
245.

Robertson, A. 1989. National Status and Trends Program: A national
overview of toxic organic compounds in sediments, pp. 573-578. In:
Ocean '89. Volume 2: Ocean Pollution. Marine Technology Society
and Oceanic Engineering Society, IEEE.

Robertson, A. and T. P. O'Connor. 1989. National Status and Trends
Program for Marine Environmental Ouality: Aspects dealing with
contamination in sediments, pp. 47-62. In: Contaminated Marine
Se ,diments--Assessment and Rernediation. National Academy Press,
WA@fiington, DC. 493 pp.

Schiewe, M. H., D. D. Weber, M. S. Myers, F. J. Jacques, W. L. Reichert,
C. A. Krone, D. C. Malins, B. B. McCain, S-L. Chan, and U. Varanasi.
1991. Induction of foci of cellular alteration and other hepatic
lesions in English sole (Parophtys yetulus) exposed to an extract of
an urban marine sediment. Canad. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. (in press)

Stein, J. E., W. L. Reichert, M. Nishimoto and U. Varanasi (1989)
32p- postlabeling of DNA: A sensitive method for assessing
environmentally induced genotoxicity, pp. 385-390. In: Proceedings
Oceans '89. Marine Technology Society and Oceanic Engineering
Society, IEEE.

Sunda, W.G., P.A. Tester and S.A. Huntsman (1990) Toxicity of trace
metals to Acartia tonsa in the Elizabeth River and southern
Chesapeake Bay. Est., Coastal and Shelf Sci. 30: 207-221.

/015

Varanasi, U., S.-L. Chan, B. B. McCain, M. H. Schiewe, R. C. Clark, D. W.
Brown, M. S. Myers, J. T. Landahl, M. M. Krahn, W. D. Gronlund, and W. D.
MacLeod, Jr. 1988. National Benthic Surveillance Project: Pacific
Coast. Part 1. Summary and overview of the results for Cycles I to
111 (1984-86). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, WA. NOAA Tech. Memo.
NMFS F/NWC-156, 43 pp. + Figs, 1-21.

Varanasi, U., S.-L. Chan, B. B. McCain, J. T. Landahl, M. H. Schiewe, R.
C. Clark, D. W. Brown, M. S. Myers, M. M. Krahn, W. D. Gronlund, and
W.D. MacLeod, Jr. 1989a. National Benthic Surveillance Project:
Pacific Coast. Part 11. Technical presentation of the results for
Cycles I to 111 (1984-86). National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, WA.
NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS F/NWC-170,159 pp. + Appendix.

Varanasi, U., W. L. Reichert, and J. E. Stein. 1989b. 32p-Postlabeling
analysis of DNA adducts in liver of wild English sole (Parophrys
yetulus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes
Cancer Res. 49: 1171-1177.

Varanasi, U., J. E. Stein, and M. Nishimoto. 1989c. Biotransformation
and disposition of PAH in fish, pp. 93-149. In: Metabolism of
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Aquatic Environment, (U.
Varanasi, ed.). GRG Press, Boca Raton, FL.

Varanasi, U., J.E. Stein, L.L. Johnson, T.K. Collier, E. Casillas & M.S.
Myers. (1991) Evaluation of bioindicators of contaminant exposure
and effects in coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of International
Symposium of Ecological Indicators. (In press)

4/09/91 11:25 301 231 5764 N0AA/OMA3 (OAD) 002

PROGRAM BUDGET (Dollars in thousands)

FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95

Element A--Bioeffects Surveys 750 900 1200 1500 1500

Element B-Bioindicator Develop. 400 600 1100 1400 1500

Element C-Effects Research 350 700 1400 2400 4000

Element D--Intake/Bioaccumulation
Research 0 300 800 1400 2000

TOTAL 1500 2500 4500 6500 9000

107

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICC
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Environmental Conservation Division
2725 Montlake Boulevard East
Seattle, Washington 98112

April 11, 199 1

MEMORANDUM FOR: Coastal Ocean Program Toxics Theme Team

FROM: Usha Va=asi, Project Manager, Bioeffects Research

SUBJECT: Final Implementation Plan/ Announcement of
Availability of Funds

Enclosed you will find copies of.

Ilie final FY91 Implementation Pl= Contract for the Toxic Chemical
Contaminant component of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program as it was signed by
Don Scavia.

- Our "Announcement of Availability of Funds" for Bioeffects Research
(Element C) as it was sent off today to NMFS Center Directors and to Bill
Graham at Sea Grant headquarters for broad academic distribution.

As outlined in the announcement, 2-3 page $?planning letters" are being requested
of all interested applicants by no later than May 10th. It will be interesting to see
92
what kihd of response we get. Please feel free to make extra copies of the
announcement for additional distribution.

Enclosures

cc: Andrew Robertson
Peter Landrum
Anders Andren
Mararita Conkriaht
Thomas O'Connor
David Engel
Tom Siewicki
Stanley Rice
Fred Tburnberg
James Chambers

ANNOUNCEMENT OF AVAILABILITY OF FUNDS
Coastal Ocean Program
Toxic Chemical Contaminants Illeme Area
Bioeffects Research

1. IntroductionMackground
NOAA's ongoincy national environmental monitoring programs have found
that urbanized and industrialized estuarine and coastal areas have bicrh
concentrations of chemical contaminants in their sediments and in the tissues of
the organisms which inhabit these affected regions. In some of the highly
contaminated areas, resident species are showing signs of impaired health which
appears to be caused by their chronic exposure to contaminants. A number of
studies have equated chemical contaminant exposure to -growth inhibition, organ
dysfunction, and reproductive impairmem And in some locations, contaminant
levels are sufficiently high to cause mortality to primary prey organisms.
Significant declines in estuarine populations are believed to be related to the
combined effects of chemical pollution, habitat loss and degradation, harvesting
practices, and other factors. The bioeffects research described in this
Announcement of Availability of Funds is aimed at gaining a better understandina
of the specific role chemical pollution may play in this overall problem.
Research solicited under this announcement seeks to establish linkages
between exposure to toxic chemicals in the near coastal ocean environment and
significant biological effects on marine organisms. A primary need is to gain a
sufficient understanding of how contaminants affect key species at critical points
in their development and their reproduction. There is a need for research studies
to be undertaken that will develop an understanding of the processes that link
chemical contaminants to biological effects at the individual organism level.
Results from such studies should eventually enhance the ability to assess and
predict the effects of a broad spectrum of chemical contaminants on populations
of key marine species and their associated communities. This in turn will provide
environmental managers with scientifically valid information for decision
making.

11. Guidance
Funding for Bioeffects Research under this announcement will be $350,000
in FY1991 and is anticipated to grow in FY1992. nis announcement requests
ta

proposals for research to begin on or about October 1, 1991. Funding will
thereafter be determined annually. However, projects of up to 3-years duration
will be considered. Funding after the initial year will depend on satisfactory
progress and Congressional appropriations. Cooperative proposals between
NOAA scientists and academic investigators are encouraged. However, proposals
solely involving investigators from academia or from NOAA laboratories are not
precluded.
It is anticipated that the typical proposal award for FY91 will be about
$75,000.

M. Areas of Interest: 1991-1992 Program Years
For FY 199 1 1 research funding will be limited to species and locales for
which there is already ample documented evidence of biological effects occurrma
(e.g., lesions, disease, DNA damage, reproductive impairment, abnormal
behavior) and for which there is a reasonable suspicion (but not necessarily a
f=* link) that the observed effects are related to contaminant exposure. For
these species, some field and/or laboratory studies should have already been done
which correlate pollutants to specific biological effects.
Research will be aimed at establi.-zhing linkages between contaminant
exposure and sipffleant biological effects in individuals. While the ultimate goal
of this program is to demonstrate effects at the population or ecosystem level, it
is first necessary to establish the -mechanisms and sequences of events required to
produce demonstrable effects in individuals. Therefore, the primary effort
within the scope of this theme area will be to establish relationships between
environmental contaminant exposure and biological processes in marine biota.
Research should be concentrated on measuring effects in individuals that might
have implications at the population level. Three parameters or endpoints
measurable at the individual level which appear most likely to cause widespread,
deleterious effects among populations are: impaired growth, impaired
fecundity., and decreased survival.

Proposed research projects--that-seek to measure 12rocesses and 12aram-eters
that establish links-herween contaminant exposure and one or more of the
above three biological endpoints. either-directly or indirectly, Arg
especially encouraged.

Examples of the types of studies sought for this announcement are listed
below. This is not a complete fist, and proposals suggestinocr alternative projects
are welcome.
(1) Environmentally relevant dose/response experiments to establish cause-
and-effect relationships between contaminants and biological effects.
(2) Studies to determine the long term effects,'if any, of a brief pulse of
contaminant exposure on migratory species (e.cr., salmon) during an early life
stage.
(3) Studies to determine the varying sensitivities to exposure of an organism
at different stages in its life cycle, with an emphasis on early life stages.
(4) Studies to determine which part(s) of the reproductive process may be
impaired due to contaminant exposure (e.g., gonadal maturation, hormonal
regulation, fecundity, spawning, and egg/larvae survival), and to elucidate the
physiological or molecular mechanisms by which such impairments occur.
(5) Studies to identify possible cause-and-effect relationships between
reproductive impairment in fish and invertebrates and the uptake
(bioaccumulation) and fate (bioconversion) of toxic contaminants.
(6) Studies to determine how the timing, duration, and sequencing of
reproductive events may be impaired by contaminant exposure in selected
commercially and recreationally important esruarine fish.
(7) Studies to assess possible effects on subsequent generations (filial effects).
(8) In situ environmental chamber studies to determine factors affecting
growth and survival of the early life stages of key species (to link laboratory and
field research).

Ill. Results of Studies/Products
Research on the links between exposure and effects will be conducted as a
number of separate projects which will lead to the publication of peer-reviewed
scientific articles and reports. On a regular basis, participants in COP's Toxics
Chemical Contaminants Theme Area will cooperate to develop sunitnary reports
on the status of their research and to recommend priorities for future studies.
Funded Principal Investigators (P.I.s) of multiyear projects will be
required to submit annuaJ progress reports, and all funded P.Ls will be required
to submit a final report including their data within one year of completion of
their studies. 7he research conducted under this announcement will produce an
infon-nation base that may be used to identify and predict significant toxic

chemical contamination problems in coastal environments, including those
requiring rapid attention to mitigate further damaac.

rV. Planning Letter Submission
The proposal submission process will take place *in mo Ze
stag s:
(1) Applicants must submit a 2-3 page planning letter to the Bloeffects
Research Project Manager (see Section IX for address). Planning letters
should be single-spaced and typewritten on 8 1/2 x 11 inch paper. They should
include intended research plans and justify their significance with respect to the
interest areas described herein. A budget sheet and curriculum vitae of the
PI(s) should be attached. All planning letters will be reviewed and the
applicants will be notified of their status within several weeks of submission.

(2) Applicants whose planning letters are selected will then be asked to submit
more detailed research proposals. These proposals will be directed at
describin,c; specific research plans and exact technical approaches. Sets of
proposal guidelines will be sent to successful planning letter applicants upon
notification of their acceptance at the planning letter stage.

V. Proposal Submission and Evaluation
In stage two of the evaluation process, research proposals (subsequent to
planning letter acceptance) will be submitted to a Toxics Proposal Review
Panel aiid rated. for their intrinsic technical merit relative to the foUowincy
concerns: (1) applicability of the proposed study toward meeting the project's
objectives, (2) use of the best available data and information for planning and
conducting the study, (3) appropriateness and scientific validity of proposed
research design and testing methodologies, and (4) background, experience, and
scientific competence of the proposed investigators to carry out the proposed
study. Proposals with cost sharing, matching funds, or other mechanisms to
increase the cost effectiveness in the use of the Coastal Ocean Prouram funds will
be especially encouraged. The Toxics Proposal Review Panel will evaluate all
submitted proposals and advise the Toxies Program Management
Committee (PMC) on the merits of and modifications recommended for such
proposals. In addition, the Toxies Technical Advisory Committee (TAQ
(composed of five scientists/scientific managers from outside of NOAA) will
review the overall scientific quality of all research proposed under the Toxics

/)-2

procyrnm area and will evaluate all in-house NOAA proposals.

V1. Selection Criteria: FY1991
(1) For FY1991, funding will be limited to species and locales for which
there is already ample documented evidence of biological effects occurring (e.g.,
lesions, disease, DNA damage, reproductive impairment, abnormal behavior).'
Consideration will be only given to proposals for species and locations with
previously observed problems.
(2) In addition, there must be a reasonable suspicion (but not necessarily a
firm link) that the observed effects are related to contaminant exposure. For these
species, some field and laboratory studies should have already been done which
correlate pollutants to specific biological effects (i.e., cause-and-effect studies).
(3) The proposal should show promise of estabfishing linkage between
contaminant exposure and at least one of the three major endpoints: growth,
fecundity, orsurvival. (see Section M.) -
(4) The proposal should build on existing knowledge and embrace a "holistic
approach;" i.e., there is a preference for multidisciplinary teams working
together.
(5) NOAA/University cooperative projects are encouraged.
(6) Encouragement is given to formulate proposals that show matching funds
or cost-sharing.

V11. Obligations of Principal Investigators
Investig
gators funded under the Toxic Chemical Contaminants 'Meme Area
must agree to undertake the following:
(1) Participate in annual meetings of P.Ls for planning and coordination of
program activities, and in developing summary reports on the status of the
research and assessment beina conducted in this theme area, including the
recommendation of priorities for the future directions of work.
(2) Perform quality control checks on data and make them available through
the program data management system to other investigators in the program to
further common program objectives.
(3) Participate in the synthesis and interpretation of research results and the
development of products of value to environmental manacrers.
(4) Publish research results in the peer-reviewed literature for the benefit of
the marine toxicology scientific community.

(5) Produce annual progress reports.
(6) Submit their data in a final report within one year of completion of their
studies and copies of these final reports will be available from the Program
Office in NOS/OAD.

VUL Funding Schedule
- May 10, 1991 - Deadline for planning letter submission to the Bioeffects
Research Project Manager (address below).
May 27, 1991 - Completion of planning letter review by Toxics
PMC/Toxics TAC. Notification of results to applicants, and requests made for
detailed research proposals to successful applicants. (Proposal guideldnes sent.)
- June 18, 1991 -Deadline for research proposal submission to appropriate
sponsoring organization and to Toxics PMC.
- June 22-23, 1991 - Completion of proposal review by Toxics Proposal
Review Panel and Technical Advisory Committee. Notification of results.
- July 1, 1991 - Submission of approved grant proposals to the National
Sea Grant Off-ice for processing.
* July 15, 1991 --- Submission to NOAA Grants Office for processing, and
awarding of grants.

IX. Submission of Planning Letters by May 10, 1991 to:
Dr. Usha Varanasi
Project Manager, Bioeffects Research
Environmental Conservation Division
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
2725 Montlake Boulevard East
Seattle, WA 98112
(206) 553-7737/FrS 399-7737

X. Toxics Proaram Management Committee
0
Dr. Andrew Robertson
Chief, Ocean Assessments Division
Office of Oceanography & Marine Assessment
National Ocean Service, NOAA
6001 Executive Blvd., Rm.323
Rockville, MD 20852
(301) 443-8933

NOAA COASTAL OCEAN PROGRAM

COASTAL HAZARDS

FY91 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

March 1991

This Plan represents an agreement between the Coastal Ocean Program Office and
the Coastal Hazards Theme line office Assistant Administrators concerning the
management and review processes, scientific and operational procedures, products,
and budget for implementing this portion of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program in FY91.

Ned A. Ostenso, Assistant Administrator Date
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

E.W. Friday, Assistant Administrator Date
National Weather Service

Virginia K. Tippie, Assistant Administrator Date
National Ocean Service

Donald Scavia, Director Date
NOAA Coastal Ocean Program

U.S. Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction ............................................ 1
1. 1 Background ........................................ 1
1.2 Program Goal ....................................... 3
1.3 Program Strategy .................................... 3

2.0 Program Elements ......................................... 4
2.1 Tsunami Hazard Mitigation .............................. 4
2. 11 Background .................................. 4
2.12 Objectives .................................. 5
2.13 Approach ................................... 5
2.14 FY91 Products ................................. 6

2.2 Coastal Storm Surges ................................. 6
2.21 Background .................................. 6
2.22 Goals and Objectives ........................... 7
2.23 Approach ................................... 7
2.24 FY91 Products ................................. 8

2.3 Coastal Water Level Variability ........................... 8
2.31 Background .................................. 8
2.32 Objectives .................................. 9
2.33 Approach ................................... 9
2.34 FY91 Products ................................. 13

3.0 Data Management .......................................... 13
3.1 Tsunami Inundation ................................. 13
3.2 Coastal Water Level Variability ......................... 14

4.0 Program Management and Evaluation .......................... 14
4. 1 Internal ......................................... 14
4.2 External ........................................ 14
4.3 Relationships tolContributions from NOAA Base
& Other Agencies ................................... 15
4.31 Tsunami Inundation ............................. 15
4.32 Storm Surge .................................. 15
4.33 Water Level Variability .......................... 15

5.0 Resource Requirements ..................................... 16
5.1 Proposed Program Budgets ............................. 16
5.2 Aircraft and Ship Requirements ........................... 16

6.0 References ............................. ............ 16

COASTAL HAZARDS

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR FY91

1.0. Introduction

1.1. Background. In one way or another, U.S. coastal populations, resources, and
environments are periodically impacted by extreme natural phenomena, often with
resultant loss of life and extensive property damage. Whether they are east coast
northeasters, Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, Great Lakes frontal systems, or Pacific coast
tsunamis, mitigation of and recovery from the effects of flooding, shoreline erosion,
channel and harbor sedimentation, and wave action cost U.S. interests billions of
dollars each year.

NOAA's mission to protect life and property has been hindered by the incorporation of
improved numerical simulations developed by the research community into operational
models for marine warnings and forecasts. In addition, effective management
decisions and engineering solutions require a firm understanding of the physical
processes affecting coastal evolution, as well as accurate models for predicting the
impacts of natural and man-made changes. These inadequacies were identified at a
1989 inter-agency/academia workshop on Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems and
recommendations were made to develop and validate a predictive system for the U.S.
coastal ocean, including the capability of forecasting the EEZ for several days and of
simulating it for several years (Mooers, 1990).

Adequate predictions of coastal winds, waves, and storm surges are indispensable for
predicting physical hazards in coastal waters and managing coastal resources.
Coastal winds and waves present navigational hazards to ships, cause flood and
erosion damage to coastal properties, and destroy living marine resources.
Consequently, improved operational models are urgently needed for predicting coastal
marine winds and waves and real-time forecasts. These forecasts will help NWS
marine forecasters provide more accurate and timely warnings of hazardous
conditions to the public, commercial maritime transportation interests, recreational
boaters, and other shoreline users. These improvements also will benefit the private
atmospheric and oceanographic sectors which furnish specialized products and
services to marine interests. In addition, improved knowledge about over-water
meteorology and coastal wave conditions will benefit circulation and thermal structure
modeling efforts, ecological and environmental modeling and assessment, Coast
Guard search and rescue operations, and hazardous spill response efforts.

As noted by an NSF/ONR panel on natural coastal hazards: "winter storms,
hurricanes, tsunamis, ... and other marine hazards have caused heavy loss of life
and property on the coasts of the U.S. and at sea." (Nath and Dean, 1984). The

117

panel also noted that "losses can be greatly reduced through better design,
construction, and planning" and "advances In knowledge were effected by the
complexity of the problem and the lack of measurements." The panel
recommended that "research Is encouraged to reduce the risk to the nation from
marine hazards."

The impacts of long-term changes in sea level must also be considered. For example,
as sea level has risen over the past few thousand years, erosion of the continental
margins has increased. Today, extensive media coverage of the problems of our
nation's eroding beaches and retreating shorelines, as well as growing expenditures
for shore protection, show an increasing public concern about coastal erosion. The
level of this concern has been increasing recently for two reasons.

First, coastal areas have become much more highly urbanized. About half the U.S.
population presently resides in coastal areas, and by 2010 the coastal population will
have grown from 80 million people to over 127 million (Culliton, et al, 1990).
Consequently, the actual and potential economic impacts of inundation and erosion on
coastal life and property are enormous. Difficult management decisions are made at
local, state, and national levels whether or how to stabilize shorelines, implement flood
protection works, or plan economic development.

Secondly, sea level changes and storm frequency and intensity are markedly
dependent upon changes in large scale weather patterns. Considerable emphasis also
has been placed upon the possibility of man-induced changes to climate and weather.
Some attempts are being made to protect beaches and beachfront property, but they
are very expensive. In 1987, federal funds for beach erosion projects on the East
Coast totaled $500 million, and California recently spent $70 million for seawalls and
beach nourishment projects. Yet these projects and other coastal structures are
designed today much as they were 50 years ago: with primitive models and intuition.
Consider the findings of a recent National Research Council study, "Managing Coastal
Erosion," (NRC,1990): "in order to improve the methodology for assessing beach
erosion and the risk of collapse of structures, much more research needs to be
undertaken by FEIVIA and other appropriate agencies, e.g., NOAA and the Corps
of Engineers on the following:

o determination of the long-term wave climatology through
field data collection programs

o monitoring of beach response to wave climate variations
and episodic events

o predictive mathematical and statistical models of probability distribution
of shoreline locations"

Our understanding of coastal winds and waves and their impacts is hindered by
insufficient data sets necessary for determining their spatial and temporal variability.
Considering the length of the U. S coastline, very few wave data are available to
describe spatial and temporal variations in coastal wave climate. The Coastal Data
Information System monitors wave conditions at about .20 locations on the west coast
(Seymour and Sessions, 1976). NOAA and the Corps of Engineers obtain wave data
from very few offshore buoys. Detailed measurements of infragravity waves are almost
nonexistent, as are comprehensive long-term mean flow data in the shoreface region.

These data deficiencies have several causes. First, the nearshore environment is
extremely inhospitable to instrumentation. Storm waves, biological fouling, sediment
movement, and human interference inhibit sampling opportunities. Second, only
recently have reliable, accurate sensors been developed for long-term measurements
of fluid flow and waves. Third, costs for instrument installation and maintenance are
often prohibitive.

A report by the NSF-sponsored Coastal Ocean Processes workshop (NSF, 1989)
states, "less is known about the inner shelf than any other portion of the coastal
region, yet It Is Important for a variety of reasons. At present we are limited by a
lack of good observations with which to develop and evaluate models of Inner
shelf processes."

1.2. Program Goal. The primary goal of the Coastal Hazards component of the
Coastal Ocean Program is to reduce the threat to lives, property and coastal
resources through more accurate and timely warnings and forecasts of coastal
flooding, extreme winds, and hazardous ocean conditions. This will be accomplished
through unified experiments and model development. Quantitative understanding of
natural processes will be complemented by improved, time-dependent dynamical
models. The improved models will be used to meet NOAA mission requirements for
early warning of marine hazards: storm surge and tsunami inundation, potential
shoreline erosion, and extreme winds and waves. Existing and newly collected data
and model results will provide the information necessary to develop design guidance
and formulate management plans for hazard identification and emergency response to
reduce the threat of extreme events to coastal populations and property. Specific
objectives of each component of the program are given in the appropriate sections
below.

1.3. Program Strategy. The Coastal Hazards program is founded upon strong
theoretical precepts and models that will be tested and improved through an ordered
sequence of process-oriented field experiments. Comprehensive sets of long-term
field measurements of the important variables must be developed concurrently to
provide statistically valid data to define the forcing/response mechanisms over a wide
range of time and space scales. The process is iterative. Theoretical models suggest
initial experimental design. The resulting data, in turn, allow more advanced model

/ / q

development, which drives the design of more complex experiments. Thus, it is
imperative that linkages between numerical modelers and field and laboratory
investigators be extremely close. An important outcome of this process will be the
ability to establish requirements for a permanent baseline observing network to
initialize and quality control the operational prediction models.

The first priority will be improvements to existing NOAA products (warnings and
forecasts) through analysis of existing data, carefully planned observational
experiments, and development of numerical algorithms based on our improved
understanding of the physics. During FY91, emphasis will be placed on improvements
in the quality and timeliness of existing products known to be of great utility to ongoing
NOAA missions. Academic input will be solicited to assist in enhancing scientific
quality of the work. Once existing products have been improved, the program will shift
to the development of new NOAA products which contribute to reduced threats and
losses from coastal hazards.

2.0. Program Elements.

During FY91, the initial efforts of the Coastal Hazards component of NOAA's Coastal
Ocean Program will address the inundation of low-lying coastal areas from hurricane
and extra-tropical storm surges and tsunamis and longer-term variability in sea level
and shoreline response to episodic erosional forces. The following sections describe
the specific rationale, objectives, approaches, products for each program component.

2.1. Tsunami Hazard Mitigation

2.11. Background. NOAA's tsunami warning system presently provides only one
product: time of arrival. Existing estimates of coastal flooding, the primary basis for
hazard mitigation planning, are derived from models with uncertain accuracy, leading
to confusion and a lack of confidence on the part of decision-makers. If tsunami
inundation models are to produce useful flooding estimates, then both the proper
model physics and a realistic specification of offshore forcing conditions are essential.

In practice, the offshore conditions are provided by a combined
generation/propagation model which first simulates the generation of a tsunami
through a specific seismic mechanism at a particular geographical location, then
propagates the resulting wave energy to the outer boundary of the site-specific
inundation model. The questionable accuracy of this two-step modeling process is
directly related to a severe lack of high quality field measurements in the open ocean
and at exposed coastal locations. The importance of these data is apparent if one
considers NOAA's hurricane storm surge program. In sharp contrast to tsunami
inundation products, storm surge flooding predictions are made demonstrably more
reliable through comparison with reliable field observations.

/J-0

In 1986, an observational effort was begun to meet this need, when NOAA
implemented a deep ocean tsunami monitoring network of five stations in the
northeast Pacific. In 1987, the U.S. Corps of Engineers also agreed to develop
tsunami measurement capabilities at six exposed coastal locations along the U.S. west
coast and Hawaii, through modifications to their existing Coastal Data Information
Program (CDIP) observational network. The annual cost of this combined network is
approximately one million dollars.

In 1989, a complementary modeling component was initiated when the
NOAA/University of Hawaii Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research
created the JIMAR Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE). The State of Hawaii provided
$100,000 to study the tsunami flooding problem and specifically to examine the
accuracy of existing inundation estimates for the Hawaiian Islands.

Recently, these combined efforts produced the first comparison of appropriate tsunami
measurements and model computations. Exceptionally high quality observations of
two very small tsunamis were acquired in the open ocean, providing critically important
data for comparison with an existing generation/propagation model. Preliminary
results indicated that serious shortcomings exist in our present ability to model
tsunami generation by a particular seismic event and then to propagate that energy to
a region offshore of a specific coastal site. Since accurate specification of the offshore
tsunami wave field is crucial to accurate modeling of coastal inundation, two parallel
and complementary activities are essential: a continuous tsunami field observation
program and a tightly coupled modeling effort.

2.12. FY91 Objectives. The specific objectives for FY91 are to:

o collect additional deep ocean and coastal tsunami measurements

o develop improved tsunami inundation modeling capabilities

2.13. Approach. An integrated approach consisting of complementary observational
and model development efforts is planned.

Observations. Siting strategy for deep ocean stations will continue to focus on the
Shumagi smic Gap, a 400-km wide region in the seismically active Aleutian Trench
with high potential for generation of tsunamis threatening Hawaii, Alaska and the U.S.
west coast. During FY91, reliability of this observational network will be enhanced
through the addition of two deep ocean units to the instrument pool. More
instruments are needed to replace aging and unreliable units and eliminate the risky
process of rapid refurbishment and re-deployment of carefully calibrated sensors
under hectic field season conditions.

The existing near-coast observation sites operated by the Corps of Engineers are
primarily the result of ad-hoc hardware modifications and data collection procedures
designed to obtain shallow water tsunami measurement capabilities on-line when
possible. FY91 efforts will involve development of a technical plan by the contractor
(Scripps Institute of Oceanography) for an upgraded system incorporating NOAA
requirements for instrument accuracy and collection procedures. Implementation of
the plan will also begin in FY91 by upgrading one or more of the coastal measurement
stations determined by NOAA to have high priority for accurate tsunami observations.

Modeling Development of a capability to produce standardized, site-specific
inundation estimates requires that fundamental scientific questions regarding model
physics and numerical schemes be addressed. In addition, practical concerns must
be dealt with, such as the availability and quality of bathymetric data, and criteria for
estimating the accuracy of inundation estimates. Development of inundation modeling
capabilities will focus on Hilo, Hawaii, the U.S. coastal community judged most
vulnerable to the tsunami threat, through a competitive peer-review of academic
proposals. A letter solicitation (Appendix A) will be sent to the principal U.S. tsunami
modelers, proposals will be reviewed by a NOAA/academic review panel, and the top-
rated proposal will be funded.

2.14. FY91 Products. Highest priority will be given to improving the reliability and
accuracy of the existing tsunami observational network, and to the development of
standardized procedures for the production of site-specific tsunami inundation maps.
Specifically:

o Two tsunami measurement systems will be constructed to supplement the
existing instrument pool

o Three oceanographic cruises will be carried out to recover and re-deploy the
deep ocean network stations

o Numerical predictions of tsunami inundation elevations for Hilo, Hawaii will be
developed to help in producing maps useful to management and planning
agencies.

2.2. Coastal Storm Surge

2.21. Background. For FY91, this component considers the inundation of low-lying
coastal areas resulting from storm surges, the rapid and often extreme flooding of
coastal areas. Ninety per cent of hurricane related deaths and damage are due to
storm surge flooding.

In response to this need, NWS developed the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) model in the late 1970's. In FY81, Congress funded a 5-year
program to adapt the generalized SLOSH model to vulnerable coastal areas and
basins based on their particular physical characteristics. Since that program began,
the model has been run with simulations for many hypothetical hurricanes to profile
the possible surge flooding in a given basin. Since completion of the 5 year
congressional initiative in FY85, a small effort has continued within NWS to improve the
SLOSH model and apply it to additional basins.

The Federal Emergency Management Administration relies on SLOSH model results to
determine the siting of evacuation shelters and the segment of a basin's population
that is at risk from hurricane surge flooding. To date, basic models have been
developed for 33 of 39 basins and hurricane simulations have been completed for 17
of the basins.

Extra-tropical storms also generate significant storm surges, especially along the U.S.
East Coast, off the Pacific Northwest, and in the Gulf of Alaska. Most damage occurs
during the winter when storms often intensify rapidly over near-coastal waters from a
combination of terrain effects, air/sea energy exchange, and converging maritime and
continental air masses. Such may last for several tidal cycles, producing high waves
and water levels.

2.22. Goals and FY91 Objectives. The long-term goals of this component are 1) to
develop, calibrate, and verify regional meteorological analysis and prediction models
for marine boundary layer winds; 2) to develop, calibrate, and verify models for
prediction of wave conditions and hurricane and extra-tropical storm surge; and 3) to
implement these models operationally for coastal and Great Lakes regions.

During FY91, the storm surge component will 1) apply the existing SLOSH model to
areas urgently requiring inundation predictions for planning evacuation and emergency
preparedness plans; 2) improve the model results by continued adaptation to critical
segments of the coastline and by incorporating new algorithms for significant physical
processes affecting hurricane surge levels; 3) develop new models for predicting
surges due to extra-tropical storms. The objectives are to:

� Develop complete set of hurricane surge scenarios for two additional basins
� Begin development of a forecast capability for extra-tropical storm surge

2.23. Approach: SLOSH will be adapted to the remaining new basins and updated
for past basins to assure that no SLOSH database is over five years old. Early SLOSH
models will be enhanced to take advantage of model physics developed after the
basin simulation was completed. One additional hurricane simulation study will be
completed each year. This work will allow comprehensive evacuation studies to be
started in other critical areas. A major consideration is that the model run fast enough

/.)_3

on NOAA's computers to allow several SLOSH/SLOSH +wave runs to be made in real-
time as a hurricane threatens. The model will, in all likelihood, require a detailed, fine-
scale description of the nearshore bathymetry that will be provided by NOS.

During FY91, the systematic update of SLOSH models to keep them current will begin
with the updating of two additional basins. The basins selected for updating will be
determined based on requirements from the National Weather Service, the Federal
Emergency Management Agency, and the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. All three
agencies are closely involved in hurricane evacuation planning for coastal areas.

Extra-tropical storm surge forecasting is also a major thrust for FY91. NWS currently
uses a statistical approach for forecasting storm surges along the East Coast. This
work was done approximately 20 years ago and is in dire need of updating.
A "perfect prognosis" approach was taken in which statistical relationships were
formed by correlating observed water levels with coincident (in time) meteorological
analyses. The major drawback of this approach is its applicability only to sites where
data has been collected.

The numerical modeling approach to extra-tropical storm surge prediction will begin
with the SLOSH model as a basis. An expansion of existing grids along the East
Coast will allow coverage of a larger area than is currently used by SLOSH. Existing
data from several extra-tropical flooding events and nearshore process experiments
will be compiled and analyzed. Analyzed wind and pressure data will be used to drive
the numerical model, generating computed values for water levels. Assuming that this
test provides acceptable accuracy for the storm surge forecast, the storm surge model
will be tested using forecast winds extracted directly from the NWS's numerical models
of the atmosphere.

2.24. FY91 Products. FY91 products include updated hurricane surge models for two
basins. These models will be available to NHC for real-time hurricane surge
forecasting and for use in hurricane evacuation planning through simulation studies.

2.3. Coastal Water Level Variabilit

2.31. Background. Although longer-term variations in sea and lake levels often
exacerbate short-term flooding produced by storms and tsunamis, there has been little
documentation of the temporal and spatial variability in coastal water levels. Such
information is required to address a host of coastal safety, policy, planning, and
operational issues which require an accurate knowledge of past, present and
projected variations of water level elevations and coastline positions, e.g. marine
boundaries and baselines determinations, coastal protection/erosion policies and
programs, statistics of water level variations for planning studies and engineering
design, more timely and accurate warnings of inundation hazards, and development of
coastal wetland and urban management policies.

/0@@

2.32. Objectives. The FY91 objectives are

o to digitize historical data sets of coastal long-term water levels beginning with
selected west coast locations

o to initiate development of U.S. west coast sea level climatology based on
existing and newly digitized water level data sets

2.33. Approach. Water Level Climatology and Prediction. For major U.S. coastal
regions, a water level climatology will be developed for the coast and offshore waters.
It will be based on available observations of water level, weather and offshore oceanic
conditions and will characterize the response of water levels to atmospheric and
oceanic forcing. Much of the data have been measured over many years, but the
older records are hard to use because they have not all been digitized.

The work will determine water level response as a function of frequency and establish
the effects of inter-annual variations of forcing functions. It will also look at improving
forecast skill for water level by including the oceanic signal. This will help to define the
frequency and intensity of extreme events that have occurred as well as the general
statistics of water level fluctuations which together are the basis for the water level
climatology. The statistics depend on how water levels respond to each time scale
(frequency) of forcing. Partitioning of the statistics into "normal" and "anomalous"
oceanic conditions is part of the methodology. Models will be used to extend the
water level statistics alongshore between observations sites and seaward to the shelf
break. The following steps are envisioned.

1. Establishing Geographical Regimes with Different Climatologies. Long-term tide
gage records (the primary source of information about water level climatology) that are
sparsely spaced along the coast will be combined with more closely spaced but
shorter-term coastal secondary tide gage and other records to obtain regional
distributions of tidal and non-tidal water level variations. These distributions will then be
used to divide coastal regions into geographical regimes, each with its own
climatology for the tides, weather-induced and oceanic signals in water level. The
climatology will contain the probability of extreme events, the amplitude and duration of
synoptic weather, seasonal fluctuations and the effects on sea level of inter-annual
variations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing.

2. Development of Predictive Capability. Models are also needed to predict the
distribution of sea level variations in a given region. The appropriate statistical
methods and partitioning of observations (i.e., into seasons, inter-annual periods) will
be applied to produce robust estimates of temporal sea level variability, the
probabilities of occurrence of extreme events and a measure of the reliability of these
estimates. The duration of non-tidal water level events will be characterized since the

I
M

length of time the water level is at an extreme value is often just as important as the
maximum elevation of the event. Finally, the extreme sea level events will be
interpreted in terms of contributions from tides, weather and oceanic signals to provide
the user with an understanding of the events and their likelihood of occurrence, i.e. to
define which aspects of the events are predictable. NOS, ERL and NWS will work
closely on this effort.

During FY91, PMEL will begin to develop methods for determining the climatology of
coastal sea level variations along a portion of the U.S. West Coast using analyses of
water level, weather and oceanic time series as follows:

INITIAL REGION OF INTEREST: This region will be from Monterey CA (an exposed
coastal site south of the long-term San Francisco station located within the mid-
California sea level regime) to Newport OR (near-coastal site where extensive sea
level, bottom pressure, weather and oceanic observations have been made; it is
located to the north of the transition from the California to Northwest sea level
regimes.) This region contains the highly populated and growing San Francisco Bay
Area where coastal flooding is a major issue.

The oceanography of the adjacent continental shelf has been studied extensively in the
CODE and Super-CODE experiments; classic studies of seasonal and inter-annual sea
level variations (e.g., El Nino) have used sea level observations in the region and
linked these to the behavior of sea level elsewhere along the West Coast. The shelf in
this region is narrow and has a relatively simple tidal regime caused by oceanic Kelvin
waves propagating northward along the coast.

The past sea level work in this region includes research on adjusted sea level (ASL,
the sum of water levels and atmospheric pressure), shelf currents and the effects on
ASL of weather and offshore oceanic conditions. However the behavior of sea level
itself (unadjusted for atmospheric pressure) over the full range of important time scales
has not been reported in the scientific literature.

INITIAL ANALYSES AND DATA ACQUISITION. The initial analyses will be done on the
hourly San Francisco record which is already available at PMEL and extended to other
water level records as they become available from NOS and other sources (e.g.,
Oregon State University which has an extensive database for the region). Many of the
analyses are semi-automated on the new EPIC database management, analysis and
display system at PMEL. Some effort will be needed to obtain time series and install
them in the database and to find the best storage medium for ready computer access
to the large data set.

Some weather and surface ocean databases are available at PMEL. They include the
Bauken weather distributions (6- and/or 12-hr distributions) for offshore winds and
atmospheric pressure) and the COADS distributions of monthly-averaged surface

1.1)6

water properties. Some effort is needed to acquire offshore stearic height time series
and distributions; the CALCOR data set is one example. These may be available at
universities where substantial research has been done on the region (e.g., Oregon
State University and Scripps Institute of Oceanography); it may be necessary to let a
small contract to obtain this data. When funding allows, it will be useful to start
cooperative studies with academic scientists from these institutions.

Detrending: Following a procedure developed in a pilot study on long-term water level
records in the Puget Sound region, the long-term records will be detrended using a
spline-fift method which allows for variations in the long-term trends. The results will be
checked through the stationarity (temporal constancy of statistics) of annual maximum
water events as seen in the hourly data. The programs for detrending and finding the
extreme events in hourly data were developed as part of the pilot study and need to
be interfaced with the EPIC package.

Tidal Analyses: Sequential tidal analyses will be performed for quality assurance and
to check on the 18.6 year nodal variations and stationarity of harmonic constants.
This will lead in subsequent work to detailed cotidal charts for the coastal region. The
detided time series (observed minus predicted) will be useful in studying high-
frequency events.

Low-passed Time Series: Time series plots of 35-hr low-passed water levels
(resampled at 6-hr intervals for efficiency) will be analyzed for seasonal behavior and
inter-annual variations in the subtidal (frequencies less than tidal) signals as seen in
the variance. These will be used to determine the lengths of winter and summer
periods for spectral analyses that avoid transitional periods between seasons and to
identify anomalous years. The El Nino signal should be most evident in the low-
passed time series as well as the 50-70 day waves propagating northward along the
coast from the equatorial region.

Auto-spectra and Coherence Analyses: Winter and summer auto-spectra at individual
stations (starting with San Francisco) and coherences between tide stations will be
compared with published distributions of adjusted sea level to assess how well these
represent the spectral behavior of the actual sea level fluctuations (the published ASL
spectral and variances undoubtedly underestimate the amplitudes of actual coastal sea
level.) The spectral analyses will include subtidal and supertidal (high-frequency)
frequency bands. The coherence analyses will provide the transfer functions which
relate non-tidal sea level signals at the primary station (San Francisco) to the signals at
the other tide stations along the coast.

The scientific payoff is a better understanding of how weather and the ocean force
coastal water level over a broad range of time scales and whether there is a
relationship between the high-frequency variations (central to forecasting storm
surges) and background, low4requency signals (the focus of climate studies). For

0 7

example, an ENSO event (El Nino) can affect water levels in many ways. Local water
levels can be raised directly by long-distance forcing, water density changes, local or
offshore current changes, atmospheric pressure changes, and atmospheric conditions
can be altered enough to produce more frequent and more intense coastal storm
systems.

Historical Water Levels Diaitization. To support the climatology and prediction effort,
NOS will begin to digitize historical water level data which are still only in manuscript
form and merge them into the modern relational data base presently under
development within NOS. The term "digitize" is used for simplicity, a more correct
term might be "make computer compatible." Included within this effort are activities in
selecting data to be digitized, quality control, adjustments to common datum, and
statistical summarization. Future work using this data will include scientific studies and
a suite of practical products.

DATA AVAILABILITY AND SELECTION: NOS presently operates 189 long term
primary tide (140) and Great Lake water level (49) stations and a varying number of
shorter term secondary stations. Over 5000 secondary stations have been occupied
at various times in the past. Since the late 1960's most of the data from primary
stations has been recorded digitally and are generally available to the entire scientific
and engineering communities. However, older historical data (some dating into the
last century) and secondary stations are not available in a computer compatible
format. These data are needed to extend the statistical reliability, expand the data
base to cover coastal regions for which there are no primary stations, and to maintain
datums for use by local communities, industries, surveyors, and boundary
determinations.

Of these 189 primary stations, about 40 of the longest operating tide stations are
expected to be digitized using resources from the Climate and Global Change
Program. Some primary stations only have 20 or so years of data, all digital. Records
from many of the secondary stations are too short to be useful or no longer have
adequate benchmarks remaining. Thus, about 130 primary stations along with about
2000 secondary stations are estimated to need some digitizing under this program,
much more than can be afforded immediately. Priorities will, therefore, be established
using criteria which are geographical, record length, and record quality.

DIGITIZATION AND QUALITY CONTROL: Digitization will generally be limited to hourly
heights and highs and lows along with datum information. This will allow effective
reconstruction of the tide/water level time series. Should a few series be needed at
faster sampling rates, original analog records can be digitized. However, experience
indicates that such would be required infrequently.

Because of the wide range of handwriting types in the original manuscripts, including
the flowery styles of yesteryear, it does not appear to be feasible to use automated

1,29

scanner equipment to perform the digitization. The digitizing will have to be done by
hand.

For quality control purposes, all data will be digitized twice and compared. Besides
the comparisons, quality control will include several check sums which are available
from earlier manual summaries. Further checks will be made using the specialized
software which is used to control the quality in modern digital water level data.

The analyses being performed by PIVIEL will provide a further check on quality. As
data become available for the South Atlantic Bight, simple analyses will be performed
both to assure that quality.

2.34. FY91 Products. This component of the FY91 Coastal Hazards program will
provide improved data to support wave, storm surge, and tsunami forecasting by the
NWS; and improved vertical datums for marine boundary determination, nautical
charting, and local surveying. The FY91 products include:

o Expanded water level data set in the NOS relational data base.

o Statistical analyses, including an evaluation of robust exploratory data
analysis methods, for selected coastal tide gage records.

o A data report summarizing the characteristics and distributions of sea level
variations for the Northern California-Southern Oregon Coast. This is an
important step toward producing a sea level climatology at individual
stations and a necessary foundation for producing a sea level
climatology for the region.

o Detailed plans for future work.

3.0 Data Management

3.1. Tsunami Inundation. PIVIEL will process and manage tsunami bottom pressure
data collected by the observational network. Tsunami instrumentation continues to be
refined and improved, so that three generations of tsunami gauges currently exist in
the network instrument pool. As a consequence of this evolution, data processing
procedures are not completely standardized or automated, and some special
processing is generally required to take account of differences specific to each
individual record.

In the event of a tsunami, data will be made available to collaborating COP
investigators on an individual basis. The appropriate sub-series of records will then be
specially processed to extract an accurate tsunami signature, including the application

10)_q

of algorithms to correct for errors such as changes in sensor calibration constants,
reference clock drift during deployment, and spurious signals induced by temperature
sensitivity of the pressure sensor. Additional processing will be required for removal of
tides, appropriate filtering to isolate energy in the tsunami frequency band, and
conversion of pressure to sea level values through depth- and frequency-dependent
compensation for hydrodynamic filtering. Not all procedures have been fully
developed and implemented at this time.

3.2. Coastal Water Level Variability. NOS will assemble and add historical data sets
to water level and tidal datum data bases being developed on base funds. All digitized
tide and water level data will be available to the entire external community of users at
nominal cost. Beginning in late FY92, the data will be available on-line through the
new data base management system being developed on base funds and presently
under contract.

4.0 Program Management and Evaluation

4.1. Internal. Our approach stresses the integration and application of existing line
office capabilities to coastal hazards research, modeling, and information products.
Identified gaps in capabilities will be filled through an open, competitive solicitation and
review from academic or other non-NOAA sources.

Since this element draws heavily upon the capabilities of several line organizations, an
interim project manager in the Coastal Ocean Program Office will coordinate initial
program development efforts. NOAA'S Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
(PMEL) will be primarily responsible for management and implementation of the
tsunami observations and modeling effort; NWS's Techniques Development Laboratory
will be responsible for the storm surge modeling and development; and NOS and
PMEL will work closely on the water level variability research.

The PI's will maintain close and continuous cooperation since results and products
derived from one element of the program will frequently be used to upgrade other
elements.

4.2. External. External input to the program has been obtained by including
academicians in the program development phase and by review of program plans by
the NAS Panel on the Coastal Ocean (PoCO). Assistance from the academic
community in implementing portions of the program will be obtained largely through a
competitive, peer-reviewed process. A technical advisory panel will be selected in
FY91 to review and evaluate the technical quality and utility of existing products and to
identify the needs for additional products. The panel will eventually provide the
working group and the project manager with recommendations for new programmatic
thrusts based on both science and management perspectives. The panel will consist

of scientists experienced in understanding and modeling coastal inundation
phenomena as well as coastal construction and emergency management specialists
concerned with developing improved design criteria and management plans impacted
by episodic coastal flooding.

4.3. Relationships to and Contributions from NOAA Base and other agency
programs.

4.31. Tsunami Inundation. NOAA has historically worked closely with other agencies
and the academic community in developing tsunami observational and modeling
capabilities, including:

o PMEL base funding has supported initial development of the deep water tsunami
measurement system

o The JIMAR Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE) is a joint NOAA/University of Hawaii
activity partially funded by the State of Hawaii

o Development of a nearshore tsunami measuring capability using the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers wave gage network and Scripps Institute of Oceanography
collection system.

o NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) will be a recipient of
inundation estimate products,

o State of Hawaii agencies will also receive inundation products.

o The National Science Foundation is developing a proposal for enhanced
research in tsunami modeling. The NOAA Coastal Ocean Program will work
closely with the NSF program manager to insure coordinated and cost-effective
approaches.

4.32. Storm Surge. The extra-tropical storm surge development will be done with
contractors assistance working inhouse with NWS TDL scientists. Through a
competitive process, NWS has in effect a task order contract. The contractor will
provide modeling capability based on review and analysis of recognized expertise in
storm surge modeling, and subject to TDL approval. Previous experience has shown
that this approach effectively satisfies TI)L's need for external assistance in research
and development activities.

4.33. Coastal Water Level Variability. The water level variability component of this
program complements and extends an ongoing $8M NOS effort to measure and
predict tidal and lake elevations, circulation patterns, and currents in estuaries and

nearshore waters. Through enhanced use and analysis of data collected by base-
funded activities improved understanding and predictions of natural variability in water
level variability will be obtained. Further, the addition of this historical data to the
relational data base being developed with base funding will provide ready access to a
much larger water level data set for more timely verification of model predictions and
several other purposes. The work may also benefit from a proposed Climate and
Global Change Program effort to digitize historical data from a number of U.S. coastal
water level gages.

PMEL base funds will be used to support the preparation and publication of research
papers on a pilot study of sea level variability in the Puget Sound Region and as
matching funds for the analysis of sea level along the Northern California/
Southern Oregon Coast. The pilot study was done as part of the NOAA Marine
Environmental Quality Assessment Program. The development of the EPIC computer
package to be used in the PMEL analyses of sea level was supported by the NOAA
Climate and Global Change Program, FOCI and other NOAA-funded programs at
PMEL.

5.0 Resource Requirements

5.1 Program Budgets. Table 5-1 provides shows the distribution of FY91 funds and
Table 5-2 is a proposed budget for FY92-FY95. Note that FY92 plans call for a
substantial increase in funds to bring this element to parity with other components of
the Coastal Ocean Program.

5.2 Aircraft and Ship Requirements. PMEL Deep water tsunami system will be
serviced in FY91 according to existing PMEL agreements.

6.0 References

Culliton, T.J., Warren, M.A., Goodspeed, T.R., Remer, D.G., Blackwell, C.M., and
McDonough, J.J., 50 years of Population Change along the Nation's Coasts, 1960-
2010, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April, 1990

Mooers, CAK, ed. Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems, Draft Regort of a Plannin
Workshog held 31 October to 2 November 1989 at the University of New Orleans,
Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., 19 March 1990

Nath, J.H., and Dean, R.G., eds, Natural Hazards and Research Needs in Coastal and
Ocean Engineering NSF and ONR, November 1984

National Research Council, Managing Coaatal Erosion 1990

NSF Steering Committee, Coastal Physical Oceanography, CoPO, Towards a National
Plan, Report of a Meeting of the Coastal Oceanography Physical Oceanography
Community held January 23-26 in Gulf Park, Miss., NSF, 1989

Seymour, R.J., and M.H. Sessions, "A Regional Network for Coastal Engineering
Data," in Proceedinas, 15th Coastal Engineering Conference, ASCE, pp 60-71, 1976

133

Table 5-1. FY91 COASTAL HAZARDS BUDGET

TSUNAMI INUNDATION (OAR/PMEL)
observations $50,000
modeling $50,000
SUBTOTAL: $100,000

STORM SURGE (NWS/TDL)
apply and update slosh: $30,000
extra-tropical model $70,000
SUBTOTAL: $100,000

COASTAL WATER LEVEL AND COASTLINE VARIABILITY
PMEL: Develop climatology methodology for West Coast: $30,000
NOS: Digitize West Coast Historical Water Level Data: $70,000
SUBTOTAL: $100,000

TOTAL: $300,000

13@

Table 5-2. PROPOSED FY92-95 COASTAL HAZARDS BUDGET

Funding by Fiscal Year In $ Millions

PROGRAM ELEMENT FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95

Tsunami 0.50 0.75 0.8 0.9

Storm Surges 0.33 0.85 1.2 1.5

Water Level and Coastline Variability 0.17 1.0 2.0 2.5

Coastal Winds and Waves 0.30 1.5 2.0 2.1
Total 1.3M 4.1 6.0 7.0

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