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                                               A
                                               STRATEGIC PLAN
                                               FOR A
                                               COASTAL
                                               FOR
                                               SYSTEM







                                          Nb
                                               U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
                                               NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


                                               June 1993
                                                                  ECAST
















                                                           LIBRARY
                            C113                         NOAA/CCEH
                                                     1990 HOBSON AVE.
                            cq
                                                    CHAS. SC 29408-2623









                            CONTENTS

                            PREFACE                                                   V


                            BACKGROUND                                                1


                            LONG-RANGE GOAL                                           5


                            COMPONENTS OF THE STRATEGY                                7


                               Environment                                            7


                               Regions                                                8

                               Conceptual Elements                                   10

                               Development Stages                                    12

                               Responsibility                                        19

                            A CONCEPTUAL SYSTEM                                      23


                            IMPLEMENTATION                                           27


                               Buildup Phase                                         27

                               Mature Phase                                          29


                            REFERENCES                                               31








                                PREFACE


                                The few-hundred-mile-wide zone that contains coastal watersheds,
                                bays, estuaries, and coastal oceans of the United States is one of the
                                most important socioeconomic features of our Nation. This narrow
                                coastal strip contains

                                 m nearly half our population,

                                 m   many large urban areas,
                                 m   critical transportation hubs that link our Nation's commerce with
                                     the outside world,

                                 m   food harvests that rival those of the Nation's "breadbasket,"

                                 m   recreation for millions of people, and

                                 m   marine sanctuaries and protected species.

                                This concentration of people, resources, and commerce, combined
                                with the special character of a land-water-air interface, presents a
                                challenging set of environmental issues. The health and well-being of
                                the human and living marine resources depend critically on their inter-
                                action with, and the quality of, the natural and anthropogenically
                                perturbed environment. Our first line of defense against potential
                                environmental calamities is our knowledge and understanding of the
                                biogeochernical and physical processes and their interactions. Armed
                                with this knowledge, we can better monitor our coastal regions and
                                improve our ability to predict events in time to take preventive actions.

                                The few examples that follow demonstrate some of the current
                                economic and societal reasons for having this coastal monitoring and
                                prediction capability:

                                 0 Fish stock management is handicapped by lack of resolution in
                                     stock assessment. We need better measurement, assessment, and
                                     prediction of the size and condition of a given population and the
                                     likely impact of natural and anthropogenic fluctuations in the
                                     environment of the stocks.


                                                                                                      v









                                          ï¿½   Large coastal populations are unnecessarily evacuated or alarmed
                                              because of the difficulty associated with predicting the land-fall
                                              location and intensity of hurricanes.
                                          ï¿½   Transportation and commerce are disrupted because we cannot
                                              predict accurately the location and severity of coastal storms and
                                              fog, the sea state, and the onset or trajectory of sea ice.
                                          ï¿½   Entire ecological systems, as well as human lives, are threatened
                                              by spills of oil and other toxic material. Prompt remedial action is
                                              often impossible because we are unable to predict accurately the
                                              controlling weather and sea conditions.

                                          ï¿½   Beaches are contaminated and fisheries threatened because we
                                              have only a poor idea of the current-driven trajectory of dumped
                                              material and effluent.

                                          ï¿½   Fisheries and ecosystems are endangered because we lack
                                              accurate predictions that would allow us to take cautionary
                                              measures before and during the buildup and movement of harmful
                                              algal blooms.
                                        The growing concern about these critical problems, as well as many
                                        calls for action, have been well documented' in workshop reports and
                                        proposals over the past decade. Solving the complex issue of coastal
                                        forecasting will require the active participation of many groups, includ-
                                        ing Federal and State agencies, academia, and the private sector.
                                        NOAA's role in the creation and operation of a coastal forecast system
                                        is both central and very broad. Our mission includes monitoring and
                                        prediction of the atmosphere, the ocean, and biogeochernical aspects
                                        of coastal regions. In addition, NOAA is responsible for management of
                                        fisheries and marine sanctuaries, activities that are critically dependent
                                        on the best possible monitoring and forecasting. The combination of
                                        operational and research line organizations, providing biological,
                                        oceanic, atmospheric, and systems expertise, makes NOAA uniquely
                                        capable of playing its role in addressing and finding solutions for coastal
                                        forecasting issues.


                                        A










                             To accomplish this mission, NOAA must coordinate and share capabil-
                             ities with other agencies, work with regulatory officials, draw on
                             research in academia, and seek cooperation with the private sector.
                             This can only be done effectively within the context of a long-range
                             strategy. NOAA's partners in this endeavor must be cognizant of our
                             goals and understand the processes and mechanisms that we intend to
                             use in accomplishing this important aspect of NOAA's mission. As a
                             first step in meeting this challenge, NOAA must adopt a vision that
                             focuses on the broad issue.

                             This NOAA vision is to create and maintain an effective coastal
                             forecast system that meets today's requirements and that can be
                             rapidly updated and enhanced as new requirements, knowledge, and
                             technologies emerge.

                             This vision is buttressed by the long-range strategy presented here. It
                             was drafted by the following NOAA team formed by the NOAA Coastal
                             Ocean Office:
                                Frank Aikman (NOS)                 D. B. Rao (NWS)
                                Donald Beran (OAR) Chairman        Frank Schwing (NMFS)
                                Judith Gray (OAR)                  John Sherman (NESDIS)
                                Curt Mason (COP)                   Steve Swartz (NMFS)
                             The team was guided and assisted by the following NOAA
                             steering committee:
                                Melbourne Briscoe (NOS)            John Calder (OAR)
                                Ronald McPherson (NWS)             Michael Sissenwine (NMFS)
                                John Sherman (NESDIS)
                             The contributions of the strategic planning team and steering commit-
                             tee are gratefully acknowledged.
                            /
                                Donald Scavia,
                               _T')irPrtnr_NOA A Coastal- Ocean Office
                                 @ ^I
                                Donal@


                                 NOAA Coastal Ocean Office
                                 1315 East West Highway - Suite 15140                      vii
                                 Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
                                 (301) 713-3338








                                A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR
                                A COASTAL FORECAST SYSTEM

                                BACKGROUND


                                Daily operational activities, management decisions, long range
                                planning, and regulation in the coastal zone typically require knowledge
                                of the following:

                                 n Weather: winds, precipitation, visibility, temperature.

                                 m   Water levels: tides, surges, seiches.

                                 0   Waves: height, period.

                                 m   Temperature and current fields: speeds, directions, dispersion
                                     characteristics.

                                 m   Chemical composition: salinity, presence of nutrients, pollutants.

                                 0   Biology: species (composition, abundance, distribution).

                                Increasing coastal population and economic activities have been
                                accompanied by the expanded use of "environmentally sensitive"
                                technology. Fog, bad weather, high seas, and ice can snarl local traffic
                                and disrupt schedules in other parts of the national and global trans-
                                portation network. In many cases the inconvenience and lost productiv-
                                ity are accompanied by the serious threat of injuries and death.
                                Chemical spills, which many times result from inadequate forecasts,
                                can have severe impacts on the local ecology, water supplies, and
                                human health.

                                Once thought to be abundant, marine life no longer matches the
                                demands of an increasing human population; the "endless supply" is a
                                myth. What we have must be protected and wisely used. Major storms
                                inflict enormous economic losses and human suffering. The sensitive
                                connection between humans and nature has been made clear by
                                empirical circumstance. In 1992 alone people in Florida, Louisiana, the
                                Northeastern United States, Hawaii, and Guam were unwilling partici-










                                      pants in this ongoing experiment. Coastal areas have reached a level of
                                      critical attention because of the severe pressures brought about by the
                                      addition of more than 30 million people to these regions since 1960.
                                      Current population projections add another 60 million to these regions
                                      by 2050. Protection of life and property, efficient and productive use of
                                      coastal resources, and maintenance of economic activities such as
                                      transportation, with minimal disruption, demand that we make major
                                      advances in our understanding and ability to foresee changes and
                                      events in the coastal environment.

                                      A review of the current state of environmental prediction clearly shows
                                      that over the past 30 years major strides have been made in weather
                                      observing and prediction. We do not have an equivalent forecast
                                      system in place that translates the variations in weather to correspond-
                                      ing responses in the coastal ocean. We have almost no capability to
                                      link the weather-climate-coastal ocean condition to biological and
                                      ecological responses. Furthermore, because the entire system is linked
                                      and because our prediction capability of ocean characteristics is
                                      limited, we are unable to provide effective feedback from the ocean to
                                      the atmosphere and associated weather.

                                      Given the complexity of modem life, we need to provide more specific
                                      and accurate predictions of the weather and ocean conditions. It is no
                                      longer sufficient simply to say that a large area will experience a bad
                                      storm; we need to specify accurately storm surge levels and wave
                                      heights, regions of unusually high winds, specific regions that must be
                                      evacuated, and highways and airports that must be closed. We need to
                                      predict where a chemical spill will move and/or dissipate, and even
                                      more importantly, where dangerous conditions that could abet such
                                      spills are probable so that they can be avoided.
                                      We need a coastal forecast system that links the weather forecasts to
                                      the coastal ocean, that provides feedback to the weather, and that is
                                      ultimately coupled to biological-ecological models. Creating such a
                                      system is a major scientific and governmental enterprise because the
                                      dynamics and the biogeochernical make-up of the ocean are perhaps


                                      2










                                  more complicated than those of the atmosphere (and less easy to
                                  observe). This development of a coastal forecast system is a long-term
                                  investment that must be an evolutionary process. It will take many
                                  years to put a full coastal observing and prediction system in place, just
                                  as it did for the atmosphere. As coastal predictions become available
                                  and increasingly reliable, the Nation, and especially the half of the U.S.
                                  population that lives in or near our coastal regions, will find them a
                                  necessary part of daily life.



































                                                                                                          3









                                  LONG-RANGE GOAL


                                  NOAA's coastal forecast system goal is to improve our ability to
                                  measure, understand, and predict coastal environmental phenomena
                                  that impact public safety and well-being, the national economy, and
                                  environmental management.
                                  To achieve this goal, we must create a NOAA service system that is
                                  focused on the Nation's coasts. It will address the environment and
                                  resources of coastal waters and the air above, with emphasis on the
                                  unique set of conditions produced at the interfaces of water, air, and
                                  land.

                                  In the marine-biosphere environment we will have more complete infor-
                                  mation on the size and distribution of fish stocks and protected species.
                                  Sophisticated fisheries models, coupled with forecasts of the physical
                                  environment and detailed resolution of current environmental and
                                  biological conditions, will provide essential guidance on the viability of
                                  commercial fish stocks, which will, in turn, help us to make sound long-
                                  term fisheries management decisions.

                                  In the marine-atmosphere environment we will provide, in real time, a
                                  three-dimensional picture of the structure and motions of the coastal
                                  oceans and weather. Water contamination, the health of coastal
                                  habitats and wetlands, and salt water intrusion will be monitored so that
                                  better management decisions can be made. Prediction models will
                                  provide guidance far enough in advance to ensure that decisions by
                                  users such as transportation, fisheries, and waste managers are sensi-
                                  ble and effective.

                                  In the atmosphere-land environment we will be able to provide accurate
                                  site-specific forecasts of transportation-disrupting fog and life-threaten-
                                  ing severe storms. Serious air pollution episodes in coastal cities can be
                                  mitigated, and the devastation caused by events such as coastal
                                  mountain brush fires will be reduced because of precise forecasts of
                                  coastal atmospheric conditions.



                                                                                                           5








                                   COMPONENTS OF THE STRATEGY


                                   The overall strategy includes five major components: (1) environment,
                                   (2) regions, (3) conceptual elements, (4) development stages, and (5)
                                   responsibility. Each is treated separately in the following subsections.


                                   Environment

                                   The coastal ecosystem is distinctly different from other forecasting
                                   environments. The differences offer an interesting and complex
                                   challenge to forecasters and system developers. Atmospheric and
                                   oceanic predictions are profoundly influenced by exchanges at the air-
                                   sea interface, by the marked change in surface characteristics between
                                   sea and land, and by the topography at the ocean-land interface. In
                                   turn, living coastal resources are strongly influenced by their oceanic
                                   and atmospheric environments.

                                   We have generated a considerable body of knowledge within each of
                                   the separate disciplines that make up the coastal environment. Similar
                                   progress in dealing with the coastal environment as a complete ecosys-
                                   tem is yet to come. Indeed, our tendency to think of the ecosystem as a
                                   collection of components is reflected in NOAA's organizational struc-
                                   ture, which has separate Line Offices (LOs) dedicated to the ocean, the
                                   atmosphere, and fisheries. As the need for cross-cutting programs and
                                   stronger ties between disciplines and LOs grew, the Coastal Ocean
                                   Program (COP) Office was created to help foster better coordination on
                                   coastal topics.
                                   While accepting the importance of interdisciplinary activities, we must
                                   also recognize that the levels of knowledge and capability in the
                                   separate areas may not be equal. For example, we have reasonably
                                   good operational models for the coastal atmosphere, but few if any
                                   coastal ocean or fish population models that are truly operational in
                                   scope. Similarly, our ability to observe the coastal atmosphere is fairly
                                   good, whereas the same cannot be said for the ocean or its biomass.


                                                                                                              7










                                       There is a primary need to develop sensors with resolution capabilities
                                       that are matched to concentrations and distributions of oceanic and
                                       biological phenomena.
                                       NOAA's strategy with regard to the coastal environment includes the
                                       following:

                                         ï¿½  Recognizing the lag between our knowledge of different coastal
                                            ecosystem disciplines and directing a balanced effort toward
                                            reaching equal levels of understanding of all components of the
                                            coastal environment.

                                         ï¿½  Increasing the emphasis on interdisciplinary studies that deal with
                                            the total coastal ecosystem.

                                         ï¿½  Reaping the benefits from more fully integrated, interdisciplinary,
                                            prediction models, which will result from a more uniform know-
                                            ledge base.


                                       Regions

                                       The United States has a remarkably long and diverse coast line. It is
                                       characterized by features ranging from pack ice on the northern shore
                                       of Naska to tropical coral reefs near the shores of Florida and Hawaii
                                       (see Figure 1). The Alaska and California Currents off the West Coast
                                       and the Gulf Stream off the East Coast produce striking differences in
                                       the coastal ocean currents and the associated weather patterns. Each
                                       region has a different set of key processes and factors that dominate
                                       environmental variability. These differing physical conditions influence
                                       the habitat for a large variety of commercial fisheries and protected
                                       species.
                                       Because the diversity of our coastal zones is one of their defining
                                       features, no single forecast system may be suitable for all regions. For
                                       example, the temporal and spatial scales of coherence vary substan-
                                       tially with region, leading to the need for different observational
                                       schemes. Measurement of lateral wind curl off the West Coast may
                                       require a high-resolution network made up of closely spaced meteoro-

                                       8













                                     COASTAL REGIONS
















                                                   co
                                                                            W-P
                                                                              L

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                                      Figure 1. The U.S. coastal regions are extensive and diverse, ranging from pack ice
                                      to tropical waters.


                                   logical buoys, whereas such measurements may not be critical off the
                                   East Coast.

                                   An important aspect of this regional character is the local expertise and
                                   support that exist within each area. The universities, industries, and
                                   states associated within a particular region are the best sources of infor-
                                   mation on regional requirements, special features, and location-specific
                                   research and development. Although central coordination is desirable,




                                                                                                            9









                                    an optimum strategy must not only recognize regional differences; it
                                    must also build on local strengths and expertise.
                                    NOAA's strategy with respect to the coastal regions includes the follow-
                                    ing:

                                      ï¿½  Recognizing important regional differences and basing coastal
                                         forecast system designs on those requirements that are unique to
                                         a particular area.

                                      ï¿½  Building on existing local expertise and capability where possible
                                         and encouraging the continuation of region-specific research.

                                      ï¿½  Strengthening the coordination and exchange of ideas and
                                         techniques among regions to ensure a minimum of duplication
                                         and the selection of optimum technologies and techniques where
                                         common requirements do exist.


                                    Conceptual Dements

                                    The conceptual elements of any forecast system are observations,
                                    knowledge, and models (see Figure 2). Each is necessary, but alone,
                                    is not sufficient. They are intimately related in the creation of a forecast
                                    system, and in the forecast process itself.
                                    To forecast an event we must know something about the initial condi-
                                    tions, the starting point. This requires that we observe the state of the
                                    phenomenon that we want to predict. We then must have a model of
                                    the behavior of the phenomenon with time. These models can range in
                                    complexity, from the experience of an individual forecaster to sophisti-
                                    cated, numerical calculations. No matter which model is used, it is
                                    nothing more than a manifestation of our knowledge or understanding
                                    of the process that is being predicted.
                                    The interaction between the three conceptual elements of a forecast
                                    system forms an improvement cycle (see Figure 3) that starts with the
                                    observations of some feature or phenomenon of interest. On the basis
                                    of these observations, we form hypotheses and theories, and conduct


                                    10













                                    CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS






                                                                MODELS






                                                ++0,                                   NO
                                                    V,


                                                                             0



                                     Figure 2. The operational interconnectivity of the necessary elements of a forecast
                                     system is depicted by the overlapping circles and double-headed arrows.


                                  process studies that increase our understanding. This knowledge is then
                                  converted into a model that allows us to make predictions of the future
                                  state of the feature or phenomenon. The quality of the prediction is
                                  related to our level of knowledge and to our ability to observe at any
                                  given time. New observations and better understanding will then result
                                  in improved predictions, and so on into the future. These improvement
                                  cycles are dependent on our research and development capability,
                                  which when taken together with new requirements becomes the driver
                                  for our long-range strategy.










                                     Although the data sets, knowledge base, and models may be very
                                     different for the disciplines of oceanography and meteorology, their
                                     associated prediction systems conform to these basic elements.
                                     NOAA's strategy recognizes these disciplinary differences while stress-
                                     ing the potential benefits of stronger interdisciplinary activity. For
                                     example, air-sea interactions have a profound effect on both atmos-
                                     pheric and oceanic predictions. Less well understood, but perhaps of
                                     even greater importance, is the interaction between the ocean/atmos-
                                     phere and living resources. Significantly different time scales, as well as
                                     laws of behavior, make the integration of these disciplines a challenge
                                     worthy of our best academic minds.

                                     NOAA's strategy with regard to the conceptual elements of a coastal
                                     forecast system is the following:
                                       ï¿½  To achieve balance between the conceptual elements by focusing
                                          attention and resources on weak elements in each of the relevant
                                          disciplines.

                                       ï¿½  To recognize and build on the existing separate data and knowl-
                                          edge bases within the disciplines represented in the coastal zone
                                          while working to strengthen interdisciplinary activities.


                                     Development Stages

                                     We know that requirements, knowledge, and technology are not static;
                                     they change under pressure from evolving demographics, economic
                                     adjustments, new research results, advanced development, and the
                                     birth of new concepts. We must have the ability to respond to these
                                     changes by adopting new technologies and procedures so that the
                                     operational system remains at an effective state-of-the-art level at all
                                     times into the future.

                                     NOAA now provides some level of oceanic, atmospheric, and biologi-
                                     cal services to a wide range of coastal interests. This collection of
                                     services can be thought of as a weakly connected "system." If we wish
                                     to strengthen the connections, create improved services, fill important

                                     12













                                       IMPROVEMENT CYCLES








                                                                  A40DE

                                          PREDICT
                                                                IJIVOERSTAND

                                                                    08SERVE

                                                                     14U? E L

                                                     PREDICT
                                                                       '@RSTA


                                                                       '@L
                                                                        'RVE




                                       Figure 3. The improvement cycles show how observations lead to understanding,
                                       which in turn leads to models. The process is continuous and results in increased
                                       prediction capability at the completion of each cycle.


                                   service gaps, and move toward more efficient operations, we must
                                   develop a controlled process that fosters the evolution from what we
                                   have now to what we wish to have in the future.

                                   Good research looks for answers over a very broad spectrum. Not all
                                   answers that emerge from research are relevant to a particular opera-
                                   tional need. Thus, we must have a process that examines new answers,
                                   validates them, relates them to operational requirements, and
                                   integrates them into the operational system. This process is contained


                                                                                                             13


















                                                       DEFINE EXISTING  lmmmmommmmmmommmmmmmmm                                                                            INTEGRATE
                                                                                                                                                               +         WITH EXISTING
                                                         REGION "A"                                                                                                   OPERATIONA1 SYSTEM
                                                            SYSTEM
                              [23                                       33           SPECIFY NEEDED,                                                           183 /1
                        REGION "A"                                                   BUT UNAVAILABLE
                                                                                       COMPONENTS


                                                       DESIGN FUTURE
                                                      REGION "A" SYSTEM                 [41
                                                                                                 STIMULATE R&D                             [7je                               Ile
                                                                                                  To PRODUCE
                                                                                              NEEDED CAPABILITIES                   PRODUCE FLEXIBLE                     FUTURE
                 DEFINE EXISTING                                                                                                   EGION "A" PROTOTYP          P,     ENHANCEMENTS
                 TOTAL SYSTEM                       SYSTEM DESIGN

                                                      EXPLORATORY
                                                      DEVELOPMENT

                                                       TEST AND
                        FUTURE                         VALIDATION
                        SYSTEM   * M                                                                                                            I   OTHER REGIONS

                          [21 OTHER REGIONS                     DEVELOPMENT STAGES
                                                                Figure 4. The flow chart contrasts the existing process (light lines) with the proposed process (light plus heavy
                                                                lines). The required ongoing systems support is shown in the square box and by the long, solid, heavy arrow.
                                                                The long, dashed arrow represents ongoing operations. The dashed, double-headed arrows represent the
                                                                interactions between the existing systems, future designs and the development capability. The bracketed
                                                                numbers relate to the description found in the text.
                 DESIGN
                 TOTAL










                                   in the development stages, which are (1) research, the expansion of
                                   our understanding and technological capability; (2) exploratory devel-
                                   opment, the refinement and validation of new concepts; (3)
                                   prototypeldemonstration, the integration that removes barriers
                                   between related yet separate components and disciplines; and (4)
                                   operational implementation, phased introduction of proven new
                                   subsystems and procedures. The strategic challenge is to design and
                                   implement a process, the supporting organizational structure, external
                                   interfaces, and facilities that are dedicated to producing the desired
                                   improvements to operational services.
                                   This technology/sozience transfer process should have the following
                                   characteristics:

                                     m  It should stimulate relevant research through effective feedback of
                                        operational requirements.

                                     m  It should have the capability to evaluate new research products,
                                        create and test working models of relevant subsystems, and
                                        examine the interfaces between the new subsystems and the
                                        operational system.
                                     m  It should allow for developing, fielding, and validating functional
                                        prototypes, pilot projects, and/or demonstration systems as a final
                                        risk-reduction measure before full operational implementation.
                                     m  It should be strongly influenced by system design principles that
                                        ensure interface compatibility, practicality, and operability.
                                     m  It should result in operational service systems that are tolerant of
                                        change and easily modified as new requirements, technologies,
                                        and methods emerge.
                                   NOAA's strategy includes the institutionalization of this
                                   technology/science transfer process. The flow chart in Figure 4 shows
                                   this process beginning after requirements for a national coastal forecast
                                   system have been collected and validated.




                                                                                                             15










                                     The requirements are used to generate a total (or national) system
                                     design (see area [ 11 in Figure 4). Regional differences in coastal
                                     environments make it necessary to divide the total design into region-
                                     specific subsystems [2]. By comparing the existing and proposed
                                     systems, we can identify components and knowledge that are lacking
                                     [31-

                                     This identification of operational system requirements is an important
                                     first step that will result in more focused research [4]. New research
                                     results enter the next phase of the transfer process, exploratory devel-
                                     opment [51, where the results are tested, validated, and applied by
                                     independent groups. Those concepts that pass the early validation
                                     phase are then ready for prototype development [6] and integration as
                                     quasi-operational systems. Their value as a new component is then
                                     tested in a final validation and demonstration step [71, before the full
                                     procurement and integration with the existing operational system [8].

                                     The foundation for this process is an adherence to systems principles,
                                     depicted by the items in the square box in Figure 4. Good systems
                                     design is essential for the matching of technology, models, or proce-
                                     dures to a given set of requirements, and for the selection of compo-
                                     nents to achieve the optimum system balance. This capability has been
                                     developed for NOAA's atmospheric forecasting mission and has
                                     become a key support activity for the NWS modernization effort.
                                     Despite differences in time and motion scales, much of the approach
                                     used for atmospheric systems can be extended to the development of
                                     oceanic and biological forecast systems.
                                     The long-term success of NOAA's coastal forecast system strategy is
                                     tied to the implementation of an effective ongoing evolutionary process.
                                     The central focus of this process is a working prototype that is periodi-
                                     cally updated to include technologies and methods that are more
                                     advanced than, and intended for implementation in, the operational
                                     system. This working prototype is the final test-bed used to validate
                                     changes and improvements. Property used, it will greatly reduce the
                                     risk associated with major procurement, ensure that new requirements


                                     16










                                  are met rapidly with optimum technology and methods, and act as a
                                  feedback conduit for stimulating needed research.

                                  Because coastal forecasting issues vary from region to region, a single
                                  prototype location may not be optimum. On the other hand many
                                  issues are more generic and common to all regions. This suggests the
                                  need to separate some of the prototype functions. For example, one
                                  option (see Figure 5) would be to create a central capability dedicated
                                  to system design, subcomponent testing and validation, and program
                                  oversight, and more region-specific pilot projects to address unique
                                  observational, modeling, and dissemination requirements. This would
                                  help to ensure a level of commonality that is necessary for operational
                                  logistics while still accommodating recognized regional differences.

                                  NOAA's strategy with regard to the development stages of a coastal
                                  forecast system includes these items:

                                    0   Expand our present system design, testing, validation, and
                                        demonstration capability to include oceanic and biological
                                        forecast systems.

                                    m   Use this expanded capability to make the technology/science
                                        transfer process more effective and efficient.

                                    M   Continually update and validate the requirements for coastal
                                        forecasting.
                                    m   Use these requirements to generate updated system designs that
                                        will provide a standard for assessing operational capability, and
                                        for stimulating new and more focused research and development
                                        activities.















                                                                                                           17













        A NEW APPROACH








         NEW        NEW
        TECHNOLOGIES METHODS

              EXPLORATORY
              DEVELOPMENT,
              PROTOTYPE,
              TEST AND
              VALIDATION



               44
               4W
              REGION-SPECIFIC
               DESIGN
               AND
              DEMONSTRATION







          co


          C.)
                   C7


                  k
                  C2



                C










        Figure 5. A new approach for research and development, and implementation
        related to a coastal forecast system would include exploratory development and
        region-specific design and demonstrations.
               EXPLC
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               PRO.





















































        18









                                  Responsibility

                                  The strategy for a coastal forecast system covers its design and
                                  upgrade, its operation, and its maintenance as a state-of-the-art
                                  system. It relates to activities at universities, other agencies, and the
                                  private sector. Within NOAA it spans operational, research, and
                                  program coordination groups, including the Coastal Ocean Program
                                  (COP), the Systems Program Office (SPO), and the five major LOs -
                                  National Ocean Service (NOS), National Weather Service (NWS),
                                  National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Environmental
                                  Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and Office of
                                  Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR).
                                  The very nature of the problem (the interfaces of land, water, and living
                                  resources) makes this a somewhat special organizational challenge.
                                  The five LOs, COP, and SPO will each have important responsibilities.
                                  Because of the diversity of activities it is necessary to clearly define the
                                  overall management responsibility, the role and expected interactions,
                                  of each group. The following paragraphs outline these:
                                   ï¿½   COP. Overall program coordination between LOs during the
                                       development stages. Once a system is determined to be opera-
                                       tional, full responsibility will shift to the proper LO. COP will
                                       continue to serve as coordinator to ensure effective feedback for
                                       the other stages. The Assistant Administrators (AAs) from all five
                                       LOs will oversee COP's role. COP will be responsible for raising
                                       issues to the AAs through the existing Program Development
                                       Board (PDB) and for coordinating the implementation of decisions
                                       made by this group.
                                   ï¿½   SPO. Overall systems support including requirements analysis,
                                       design studies, validation and assessment, formulation of opera-
                                       tional logistics, procurement, and system integration.
                                   ï¿½   NOS. Physical oceanographic and estuarine research and opera-
                                       tions, including data acquisition, processing, and assimilation;



                                                                                                        19










                                             model development, testing, and evaluation; and product develop-
                                             ment and dissemination.

                                         m   NWS: All aspects of atmospheric operations and special research
                                             topics. The NWS National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) will be
                                             responsible for deployment and operation of ocean buoys. The
                                             National Meteorological Center (NMC) of NWS in conjunction with
                                             other LOs will be responsible for testing new models and for
                                             running operational models including those that integrate
                                             elements of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere.

                                         m   NMFS: All aspects of the biological operations including data
                                             delivery and special research in areas of direct concern to its
                                             mission.

                                         m   NESDIS: Satellite data collection, product generation, data archiv-
                                             ing, and distribution.

                                         E   OAR. NOAA's technical arm during all development stages,
                                             providing systems capability and conducting tests, validations,
                                             and demonstrations in conjunction with other LOs and SPO. In
                                             addition, OAR would conduct research and provide the interface
                                             with external (to OAR) scientists and engineers working on topics
                                             relevant to the coastal forecast system.

                                       An important aspect of responsibility is the maintenance of strong inter-
                                       faces with other agencies and groups that have vested interests in
                                       coastal forecasting. For example, coastal issues are high on the
                                       agendas of the Navy, Department of Interior (1VIineral Management
                                       Service [MMS] and the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS]), the
                                       Environmental Protection Agency, many states, and universities.
                                       Where possible, NOAA will join with these parallel activities to share
                                       observations, knowledge, and models. The programs of the Navy and
                                       MMS involving process studies, coastal data management, and obser-
                                       vations are of particular relevance. Each LO, COP, and SPO will have
                                       the responsibility for monitoring these external programs, seeking and
                                       developing joint programs, and sharing resources in their specific areas
                                       of responsibility.

                                       20










                                    The breadth of the coastal forecast system is such that it will have inter-
                                    faces with other programs such as the Global Ocean Observing System
                                    (GOOS), CoastWatch, and Climate and Global Change. It will be a
                                    primary responsibility of COP, SPO, and OAR to ensure that effective
                                    crosscut analyses are made between these programs and the coastal
                                    forecast system. Each LO will also monitor these interactions to ensure
                                    strong symbiotic relationships.

                                    The overlap with GOOS is particularly important. Although GOOS is
                                    global in scope, it does not address other components of a prediction
                                    system. On the other hand, the more limited geographic scope of the
                                    coastal forecast system does consider all elements of an end-to-end
                                    prediction system. The point of commonality (coastal observations)
                                    provides a significant opportunity for interprogram cooperation and
                                    rapid progress for both activities.

                                    NOAA's strategy with regard to responsibility includes the following:

                                      m  Using NOAA's existing organizational structure, coordination
                                         mechanisms, and management lines where possible to ensure
                                         central responsibility for policy approval, priority setting, issue
                                         resolution, and resource allocation.

                                      m  Employing COP as the coordinator for the development stages.
                                      m  Building on existing OAR and SPO capability to implement a
                                         centralized capability for system design, testing, and demonstra-
                                         tion to foster the technology/science transfer process.

                                      m  Retaining existing operational LO responsibilities for assessment,
                                         product delivery, and policy setting.
                                      m  Making NMC responsible for operational model runs for the
                                         separate disciplines and future integrated models.
                                      m  Establishing and strengthening symbiotic relationships with other
                                         agencies, universities, and the private sector in order to foster joint
                                         projects and services.




                                                                                                               21








                               A CONCEPTUAL SYSTEM


                               The strategic components described in the previous section must be
                               used to mold a forecast service system that meets our Nation's coastal
                               requirements with an optimum mix of observing methods, understand-
                               ing, and automation.
                               The coastal forecast system will consist of all those components
                               required to observe and predict atmospheric, oceanic, and biological
                               conditions that impact the ecosystem and human well-being at or
                               near the coastal boundary.

                               NOAA's present research, observation, and prediction capabilities
                               comprise at least some of the elements of the desired system. Although
                               several ongoing research and development (R&D) activities promise to
                               produce some of the required technology and understanding, new R&D
                               thrusts will be needed to address the full range of present and future
                               requirements.
                               A forecast system has a natural flow of information starting with basic
                               observations and ending with decisions by users. This end-to-end
                               system contains several major components, each of which requires
                               special design considerations (see Figure 6). These generic compo-
                               nents, and some characteristics of the components that are unique to
                               coastal forecast systems, are as follows:

                                 m  Observations. Global-, synoptic-, regional-, and local-scale obser-
                                    vations must all be considered in the design. The larger scales are
                                    important because conditions within the coastal zone are strongly
                                    influenced by global and synoptic processes. The coastal forecast
                                    system must be properly nested within larger scale models,
                                    forecast services, and observing systems such as the global
                                    radiosonde and satellite networks. On the regional and local
                                    scales, there will be a need for observations with greater spatial
                                    and temporal resolution. The data set must also include informa-
                                    tion on biological and chemical parameters, as well as measure-


                                                                                                    23













                                                MAJOR SYSTEM COMPONENTS




                                                  OBSERVATIONS         PREDICTION       DISSEMINATION         THE USER




                                                                                                              cn


                                                            cn              z                                 CD
                                                            z               LU                                0
                                                            2               2                W                0
                                                                            LU               M                 I
                                                                            a                0
                                                            Q               4
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                                                            D                                                 z

                                                                                             0                LU
                                                            0
                                                            C.)
                                                                                                              z


                                                                                         r___1           7_7771

                                                                  RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT



                                                                 SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE



                                                Figure 6. The major forecast system components are divided into "in-line" activities
                                                (observations, etc.) and "supporting" activities (communications, etc.) that are all
                                                dependent on a research and development capability.


                                                  ments of such anthropogenic features as oil slicks, pollution levels,
                                                  and effluent discharge.

                                               0  Prediction: Nearly all prediction methods are based on some form
                                                  of model. In the near term there is a need to stress coupled coastal
                                                  oceanic-atmospheric circulations. Ultimately, a coastal forecast
                                                  system will require a hierarchy of models consisting of those that
                                                  (1) focus on separate disciplines, (2) depend on the interactions
                                                  between two disciplines, and (3) fully integrate all relevant cross-
                                                  disciplines. An important goal will be a model that deals with the
                                                  coastal environments as complete ecosystems.


                                             24










                                       ï¿½   Dissemination: Information must be available in a period of time
                                           that will allow the user to take beneficial action. The designer of a
                                           coastal forecast system must be cognizant of the users' require-
                                           ments for timeliness and specificity. Because NOAA's operational
                                           control ends with the issuance of an analysis or forecast, it has
                                           little influence over the dissemination system. It can, however,
                                           monitor the development of dissemination techniques and ensure
                                           that there is a smooth handoff of forecast products to those who
                                           are responsible for dissemination.

                                       ï¿½   The Users. There are potentially five types of coastal forecast
                                           system users: (1) the in-house NOAA user (such as a fisheries
                                           manager), (2) all other government groups that might use the
                                           information to make an internal decision or to relay the informa-
                                           tion to one of their constituents, (3) all those in the private sector,
                                           including the general public, who require the information to make
                                           economic or personal decisions, (4) policyrnakers, and (5) the
                                           research community.

                                     These in-line elements must be firmly embedded in a supporting infra-
                                     structure. The most critical elements of this infrastructure are the follow-
                                      ing:

                                       ï¿½   Communications: This is the glue that binds the system together.
                                           The mix of observing instruments and forecast products associ-
                                           ated with oceanic and atmospheric environments presents an
                                           interesting challenge for communication subsystem design.
                                           Widely different data rates and the differing needs of real-time and
                                           retrospective data users all deserve special consideration.

                                       ï¿½   Data Management. Like communications, management of data is
                                           a ubiquitous element of forecast systems. It includes such diverse
                                           activities as processing by individual instruments, quality control,
                                           data integration and assimilation, long-term storage, and distribu-
                                           tion of data directly to users. Again, the oceanic, atmospheric, and
                                           biological mix will pose special challenges. Data from each of
                                           these disciplines will have different characteristics, temporal and


                                                                                                                       25










                                           spatial domains, and parameters. Yet, their interrelationships must
                                           be understood before prediction techniques can be developed.
                                           The natural evolution to more advanced prediction models will
                                           place similar demands on the data management subsystem.
                                       ï¿½   The Operators. Too often, a forecast system is thought of as a
                                           collection of instruments, communications, computers, and
                                           models; the role of the human operator is overlooked or relegated
                                           to a subservient position. The complexity of the coastal environ-
                                           ment is such that we must not make this mistake. The person-
                                           machine interface, the special knowledge and experience of
                                           forecasters, not to mention the vagaries of the human mind, are
                                           essential aspects of an environmental forecast system design.
                                       ï¿½   Management and Logistics: Management structure, logistics, and
                                           regional differences are all important facets of the design. Because
                                           separate NOAA operational LOs serve each of the three
                                           disciplines that are relevant to the coastal forecast system, inter-
                                           LO agreements will be required to ensure efficient logistics and
                                           properly delegated responsibility. Different coastal regions may
                                           require different system components. This variation is an impor-
                                           tant consideration in determining commonality of spare parts and
                                           central versus distributed logistical support.


















                                     26








                                  IMPLEMENTA11ON


                                  The requirements behind the thrust for a greatly improved coastal
                                  forecast system are alluded to in the Background section of this
                                  document and covered more explicitly in the references listed in refer-
                                  ence I of the Preface. These broad requirements must be refined and
                                  analyzed in detail before they are used to drive the system design
                                  process.
                                  In parallel, we must carefully document existing coastal monitoring and
                                  forecast capabilities, their interfaces, their strengths, and their
                                  weaknesses. A detailed crosscut analysis of the validated requirements
                                  and the present capabilities will sharpen the focus on specific future
                                  program directions.
                                  The results from these preliminary steps must be correlated with an
                                  assessment of relevant research work. Then, using the guidelines in the
                                  previous sections, we will develop the details of a conceptual coastal
                                  forecast system design. Finally, we must find a way to deal more effec-
                                  tively with the critical need to integrate oceanic, atmospheric, and
                                  biological disciplines. Briefly, the coastal forecasting system design of
                                  the future will

                                   ï¿½   be built on existing capabilities,

                                   ï¿½   integrate oceanic, atmospheric, and biological observations,
                                       knowledge, and models where appropriate,

                                   ï¿½   depend on continued R&D for many critical components, and

                                   N   be flexible enough to accept proven new technologies and
                                       methods with little or no disruption to ongoing services.


                                  Buildup Phase

                                  After the existing activities have been defined and coordinated, and the
                                  missing components identified, we will proceed with the buildup phase,



                                                                                                          27












                                         CORE ELEMENT OF BUILD UP PHASE



                                                                 OPERATIONAL
                                                     FISHERIES    OBSERVING       COUPLED
                                                  ASSESSMENT        SYSTEMS       ATMOS/OCEAN
                                                  TECHNOLOGY                      MODELS
                                                                      y
                                            ECOSYSTEM                                    COUPLED
                                              MODELS >0+       11 SYSTEM DESIGN          ESTUARY/OCEAN
                                                               AND DEVELOPMENT           MODELS
                                            BIOLOGICAL         *TEST AND                 FULLY
                                            SAMPLING >+        VALIDATION                INTEGRATED
                                                               *PROTOTYPING              MODELS
                                            HURRICANE          *DEMONSTRATION            COAST WATCH
                                             TRACKING/  >0+    *TRANSFER                 ENHANCEMENT
                                         FORECASTING
                                                               TO OPERATIONS
                                            ADVANCED > "                                 PRODUCT
                                               SENSOR          *COORDINATION             DISSEMINATION
                                         DEVELOPMENT
                                               NORTH PACIF41C        4&       )V#DATABASE
                                                    OBSERVING      PROCESS        MANAGEMENT
                                                     NETWORK        STUDIES       DEVELOPMENT


                                         Figure 7. The buildup phase of implementation will require a core activity, which
                                         consists of the systems process. This core serves to prioritize and coordinate all
                                         other activities.


                                     the first phase of the coastal forecast system strategy. An initiative
                                     dedicated to this phase will consist of three main elements:

                                       1 .Introducing previously identified upgrades to the existing opera-
                                          tional system by procuring and installing critical operational
                                          system components needed to address urgent near-term require-
                                          ments.

                                      2. Stimulating and accelerating R&D that will provide the necessary
                                                               C




















                                          long-term solutions, with special emphasis on those disciplines for


                                      28










                                      which the knowledge base is seriously lagging behind other
                                      coastal disciplines.
                                  3.  Institutionalizing the evolutionary development process (technol-
                                      ogy/science transfer) by building on existing capability and by
                                      implementing the necessary system design, testing, validation,
                                      and demonstration infrastructure.

                                 The core of this initiative will be the third element, the expansion of the
                                 system design and coordination capabilities (see Figure 7). Urgent
                                 operational upgrades and critical research projects will complete this
                                 first initiative. The core activity, which will help to ensure that the other
                                 two critical elements are effective and part of a general improvement
                                 process, will include the following:

                                  0   Establish the facilities and infrastructure necessary to evaluate
                                      research products, assemble and test subsystems, and validate
                                      new methods.

                                  0   Integrate new subsystems with existing capabilities to provide a
                                      working prototype and demonstration of future operational coastal
                                      forecast systems.

                                  0   Implement a region-specific capability that addresses local
                                      problems and conducts pilot projects at several different locations.


                                 Mature Phase

                                 Once the desired improvement process has been established, changing
                                 requirements and capabilities will be continually reviewed. New
                                 research, development, demonstrations, and operational implementa-
                                 tion will take place in response to evolving requirements. New initiatives
                                 will be generated as required by the process.
                                 Enhancement of the operational system will occur in parallel with the
                                 creation of this enhanced NOAA development capability. During the
                                 first phases we must continue to address urgent operational require-
                                 ments without the full benefit of the more structured testing and valida-


                                                                                                       29










                                      tion embodied in the new process. However, as the new systems
                                      capability is being established, further operational improvements will be
                                      made with less risk of major design flaws and with the benefit of the
                                      latest technologies and methods.
                                      After the full systems development capability is implemented, there will
                                      be continued support of the research, development, and demonstration
                                      cycle that is essential for all future operational enhancements.


































                                      30









                                REFERENCES


                                ICoastal Physical Oceanography,
                                CoPb: Towards a National Plan (1988).
                                Report of a Meeting of the Coastal Oceanography
                                Physical Oceanography Community, 23-26 Jan.
                                1988, Gulf Park, MS (sponsored by the National
                                Science Foundation).
                                Opportunities to Improve Marine Forecasting (1989).
                                Prepared by National Research Council, National
                                Academy Press, Washington, DC, 125 pp.
                                A Status and Prospectus Report on the Scientific Basis
                                and the Navys Needs (1986).
                                Proceedings of the Ocean Prediction Workshop:
                                Phase 1, April 1986, Cambridge, MA; Phase 11,
                                November 1986, Long Beach, MS (sponsored by
                                ONR and Oceanographer of the Navy).
                                The Coastal Ocean Prediction System Program:
                                Understanding and Managing Our Coastal Ocean.
                                Vol. 1, Strategic Surnmary; Vol. 11, Overview and Invited
                                Papers (1990).
                                Report of a Planning Workshop, 31 Oct.-2 Nov. 1989,
                                University of New Orleans, LA (cosponsored by
                                NOAA, MMS, EPA, NASA, DOE, USCG, USGS, NSF,
                                and ONR).












                                                                                                   31


























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