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t@l OF C04t '2qN JUL 5 fl2qM 112q06q8 0qSqrq4TE: NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS T4qP.C-1 qs THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES HURRICANES OF TI6qUS CENTURY (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS) Updated February 1996 Prepared by: Paul J. Hebert, NWSFO Miami Jerry D. Jarrell, TPC Miami Max Mayfield, TPC Miami Tropical Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida February 1996 Q4qC995 U673 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND National Weather 1996 56q)aa AT04qM-12q08qSP04qHE4qR0qIC ADMINISTRATION Service NOAA TECEMCAL MEMORANDA National Weather Service, Tropical Prediction Center Subseries The National Weather Service Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) subseries provides an informal medium for the documentation and quick dissemination ofresults not appropriate, or not yet ready, for formal publication. The series is used to report on work in progress, to describe technical procedures and practices, or to relate progress to a limited audience and hence will not be widely distributed. Technical Memoranda originated at the Tropical Prediction Center prior to the establishment of this series are listed below. They were published as ESSA Technical Memoranda, WBTM or NOAA Technical Memoranda, NWS SR or NWS NHC. Beginning with WBTM SR 38, the papers are available from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA, 22151 (Phone: 703-487-4650). Order by accession number shown in parenthesis at end of each entry. ESSA Technical Memoranda SRTM 28 The Weather Distribution with Upper Tropospheric Cold Lows in the Tropics. Neil L. Frank - September 1966 WBTM SR 38 Florida Hurricanes. Gordon E. Dunn and Staff NHC - November 1967 (PB 182 220) WBTM SR 42 Memorable Hurricanes of the United States Since 1873. Arnold L. Sugg and Robert L. Carrodus - January 1969 (PB 182 228) WBTM SR 44 Climatology of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by Two and One-Half Degree Latirade-Longitude Boxes. John R. Hope and Charles J. Neumann - February 1969 (PB 183 308) WBTM SR 45 On the Maximum Sustained Winds Occurring in Atlantic Hurricanes. Charles Holliday - May 1969 (PB 184 609) WBTM SR 46 Hemispheric Circulation and Anomaly Patterns Observed When Tropical Storms Reach Hurricane Intensity. Paul J. Hebert, NHC, and Banner I. Miller, NHRL - May 1969 (P13 184 610) WBTM SR 47 Disturbances in the Tropical and Equatorial Atlantic. R. H. Simpson - June 1969 (PB 184 740) WBTM SR 49 A Mean Storm Surge Profile. Arnold L. Sugg - December 1%9 (PB 188 422) WBTM SR 50 A Reassessment of the Hurricane Prediction Problem. Robert H. Simpson - February 1970 (PB 189 846) WBTM SR 51 The Satellite Applications Section of the National Hurricane Center. R. H. Simpson and D. C.Gaby - September 1970 (COM 7100005) NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS NWS SR 53 The Decision Process in Hurricane Forecasting. R. H. Simpson - January 1971 (COM 71-00336) NWS SR 55 Digitized Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks. John R. Hope and Charles J. Neumann - February 1971 (COM 7100984) NWS SR 56 Memorable Hurricanes of the United States Since 1873. Arnold Sugg, Leonard G. Pardue and Robert L. Carrodus - April 1971 (COM 71 00610) NWS SR 58 Atlantic Hurricane Frequencies Along the U.S. Coastline. R. H. Simpson and Miles B. Lawrence - June 1971 (COM 7100796) NWS SR 62 An Alternate to the HURRAN (Hurricane Analog) Tropical Cyclone Forecast System. Charles J. Neumann - January 1972 (COM 72 10351) NWS SR 63 A Statistical Method of Combining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone Prediction Systems. Charles J. Neumann, John R. Hope and Banner 1. Miller - May 1972 (COM 72 10553) NWS SR 69 Statistical-Dynamical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion. Charles J. Neumann and Miles B. Lawrence - April 1973 (COM 73 10728) NWSSR71 A Decision Procedure for Application in Predicting the Landfall of Hurricanes. R. H. Simpson and Brian R. Jarvinen - August 1973 (COM 73-11663/AS) NWS SR 72 Objective Analysis of the Sea Surface Temperature. Brian R. Jarvinen - August 1973 (COM 73-11643) NWS SR 81 The Effect of Initial Data Uncertainties on the Performance of Statistical Tropical Cyclone Prediction Models. Charles J. Neumann - March 1975 (COM 75-10483/AS) NWS SR 82 A Statistical Study of Tropical Cyclone Positioning Errors with Economic Applications. Charles 1. Neumann - March 1972 (COM 75-11362/AS) NWS SR 83 A Satellite Classification Technique for Subtropical Cyclones. Paul J. Hebert and Kenneth 0. Poteat - July 1975 (COM 75-11220/AS) NWSNHCl Annual Data and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1974. John R. Hope and Staff, NHC - January 1976 (PB285261/AS) NWS NHC 2 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1975. Paul J. Hebert and Staff@ NHC - January 1977 (PB285263/AS) NWSNHC3 Intensification Criteria for Tropical Depressions in the Western North Atlantic. Paul J. Hebert - April 1977 (PB285415/AS) NWSNHC4 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1976. Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC - May 1977 (PB285262/AS) NWSNHC5 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks by 5-, 10-, 15-, and 30-Day Periods. Brian J. Jarvinen and Charles J. Neumann - May 1978 (PB2840091AS) NWSNHC6 A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1977; Contents, Limitations, and. Uses. Brian R. Jarvinen and Eduardo L. Caso - June 1978 (PB285504/AS) NWSNHC7 The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of the Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts). Paul J. Hebert and Glenn Taylor - August 1978 (PB286753/AS) NWSNHC8 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1977. Miles B. Lawrence, Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC - March 1979 (PB295702) NWSNHC9 Annual Dam and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1978. Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC - Apra 1979 (PB296323) NWS NHC 10 Statistical Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity for the North Atlantic Basin. Brian R. Jarvinen and Charles J. Neumann - April 1979 (PB297185) NWSNHC 11 A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion. Charles J. Neumann - April 1979 (PB297141/AS) NWSNHC 12 Modification of NMC Analyses and Prognoses for Use in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Prediction Models. Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. - May 1979 (PB297190) NWSNHC 13 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1979. Paul 1. Hebert and Staff, NHC - June 1980 NWSNHC 14 A Statistical Tropical Cyclone Motion Forecasting System for the Gulf of Mexico. Robert T. Merrill - August 1980 NWSNHC 15 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1980. Glenn Taylor and Staff, NHC -June 1981 NWSNHC 16 A Compilation of Eastern and Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data. Gail M. Brown and Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. - August 1982 (PB83115444) NWSNHC 17 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1981. Staff, NHC - November 1982 NWSNHC 18 The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts), Paul J. Hebert and Glenn Taylor, NHC - January 1983 (PB83-163527)(Revised as NWS NHC 31) NWSNHC 19 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1982. Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC - February 1983 (PB83184077) NWS NHC 20 Ile MissfHit Ratio - An Estimate of Reliability for Tropical Cyclone Track Predictions, Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. - April 1983 NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-1 THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES HURRICANES OF TIES CENTURY (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS) Updated February 1996 Prepared by: Paul J. Hebert, NWSFO Miami ftoperty of CSC Library Jerry D. Jarrell, TPC Miami Max Mayfield, TPC Miami Tropical Prediction Center US Department of commerce National Hurricane Center NOAA Coastal Services center Library Miami, Florida 2234 South Hobson Avenue February 1996 Charleston, SC 29405-2413 UNrrED STATES National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE James Baker Elbert W. Friday Ronald H. Brown, Secretary Under Secretary and Administrator Assistant Administrator @W. M-11 71111V PREFACE This version of the Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century is an update through the 1995 hurricane season of Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield (1995). This update is largely to include the 1995 season and adds information on hurricanes affecting Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands. Information for Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, given in Table 14, was provided by Hans Rosendal and Raphael Mojica of the Weather Service Forecast Offices in Honolulu and San Juan, respectively. During 1995 the former National Meteorological Center, which included the National Hurricane Center, was re-organized into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Under NCEP, the National Hurricane Center became the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) to more accurately reflect the majority of its operational products being non-hurricane related, routine tropical forecasts. The name "National Hurricane Center" was retained to apply to the hurricane operations desk at TPC. We will follow the convention of using "NHC" to refer to the previous National Hurricane Center, "TPC" to refer to the current center and 117?C/NHC" to refer to the hurricane operations desk of TPC. TT THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES HURRICANES OF THIS CENTURY (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS) by Paul J. Hebert, NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office Jerry D. Jarrell & Max Mayfield, Tropical Prediction Center National Weather Service Miami, Florida. ABSTRACT Lists of the thirty United States deadliest and costliest land falling hurricanes during this century have been compiled from all data sources available at the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). Damages are given both before and after adjustment for inflation. In addition, all major' hurricanes which have made landfall in the United States during this century are listed. Some additional statistics on United States hurricanes of this and previous centuries and tropical cyclones in general are also presented. 1. INTRODUCTION Numerous requests are received at the Tropical Prediction Center for statistical information on deaths, damages, and severity of hurricanes which have affected the United States. Various reference materials give different estimates of these statistics so that decisions have to be constantly made as to which information should be given out by TPC as "official" from the National Hurricane Information Center (another function of TPC). Requests to other Weather Service offices posed the same dilemma. These lists are published in the hope of presenting a single source of the best currently available estimates of deaths, damages, and intensity of major U.S. hurricanes which have made landfall in this century. In some instances, data in these lists present revised estimates. Such estimates, for individual hurricanes, are based on more complete information received after earlier published values, including the previous versions of this technical memorandum. There are other frequently asked questions about hurricanes. What is the average number of hurricanes per year? What year(s) had the most and least hurricanes? What hurricane had the longest life? When did the earliest and latest hurricane occur? What was the most intense Atlantic hurricane? What was the largest number of hurricanes in existence on the same day? When was the last time a major hurricane or any hurricane hit a given community directly'? Answers to these and several other questions are provided in Section 3. A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Table 1), and is comparable to a Great Hurricane in other publications. 2 A direct hit means experiencing the core of strong winds and high tides of a hurricane. Table 1. Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale Ranges. Central Scale Number Pressure Winds Surge (Category) (Millibars) (inches) (Mph) (Feet) Damage 1 >979 >28.91 74-95 4 to 5 Minimal 2 965-979 28.50-28.91 96-110 6 to 8 Moderate 3 945-964 27.91-28.47 111-130 9 to 12 Extensive 4 920-944 27.17-27.88 131-155 13 to 18 Extreme 5 < 920 < 27.17 > 155 > 18 Catastrophic 2. CRITERIA The statistics in most of the tables and figures in this publication depend directly on the criteria used in preparing another study, Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations-Texas to Maine (Jarrell, HebeM and Mayfield, 1992). The - ' - - - ose of that study was to demonstrate, county by county, the low hurricane experience level of a large majority of the population. Statistics show that the largest loss of life and, for the most part, property occur in locations experiencing the core of a category 3 or higher hurricane. Unless a given population has experienced this core, or direct hit with its very strong winds and high tides, it would defeat the primary purpose of the study on hurricane experience levels to so categorize it. Although the Saffir/Simpson category is defined by pressure, wind, and storm surge, in practice it is the maximum wind speed that determines the category. Operationally, the central pressure is used to make a first estimate of the wind. Thereafter, available surface wind reports and aircraft reconnaissance flight level winds (which must be reduced to the surface) are used to anchor the wind estimate. In post-analysis, the central pressure ranges of hurricanes on the Saffir/Simpson scale will usually agree fairly well with the wind ranges in that category. On the other hand, the surge is strongly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf (shoaling factor). This can change the height of the surge -by a factor of two for a given central pressure and/or maximum wind. Heavy rainfall associated with a hurricane is riot one of the criteria for categorizing it. The aubjective determination of which category number to assign to a hurricane, as well as its direct or indirect effect, is made on a com1y by cgu= basis with the intent of the study on hurricane experience levels foremost in mind. As with the assignment of scale numbers, a certain amount of subjectivity was inescapable at times in determining which counties received direct or indirect hits during the various hurricane situations. However, certain arbitrary guidelines for these classifications as used in Hurricane Experience Levels, etc., are indicated below: Direct Hi - When the innermost core region or "eye" moved over a county, it was counted as a direct hit. Using "R!' as the radius of maximum winds in a hurricane (the distance in miles from the storm's center to the circle of maximurn winds around the center), all or parts of counties falling within approximately 2R to the right and R to the left of a stonn!s landfall point were considered to have received a direct hit. (This assumes an observer at sea looking toward the shore. If there was no landfall, the closest point of approach was used in place of the landfall point). On the average, this direct hit zone extended about 50 miles along the coastline (R= 15 miles). Of course, some hurricanes were smaller than this and some, particularly at higher latitudes, were much larger. Cases were judged individually, and many borderline situations had to be resolved. 3 Indirect Hit - These were based primarily on a hurricane's strength and size, and on the configuration of the individual county coastline. Here again, much subjectivity was necessary in many cases which were complicated by storm paths and geography. Generally, those areas on either side of the direct hit zone which received at least wind gusts of hurricane force and/or tides of 4 to 5 feet or more above normal were considered to have had an indirect hit. It is realized that the effect of an indirect hit by a large category 4 hurricane might be greater than that of a direct hit by a small category 1 affecting the same county. However, trying to account for these differences would hopelessly complicate the use of this system. A study by Simpson and Lawrence (197 1) gives climatological probabilities of the total number of storms and hurricanes to affect the U.S. coastline by fifty-mile wide coastal segments, as well as only hurricanes, and major (or great) hurricanes. While this 50 miles approximates that of the "core" used for direct hits, there are some differences. In the Simpson and Lawrence study, a storm/hurricane/ great hurricane was counted in the segment where it crossed the coast plus the next segment to the riL,ht. As indicated earlier, the "core" used in Jarrell, Hebert, and Mayfield (1992) can be smaller or larger thari 50 miles, and could also affect one of the segments in Simpson and Lawrence to the left of a coastline crossing which that study would not count. The foregoing two studies and their associated criteria are climatological with their primary purpose being for use in assessing risk based on pj= experience. On the other hand, the National Weather Service's Hurricane Probability Program has as its purpose the assessment of risk based on a present hurricane threat to the United States coastline. It does this by arbitrarily defining a "strike" as the center of a hurricane moving through a zone within approximately 50 nautical mile's to the right or 75 nautical miles to the left of the site of interest (Sheets, 1984). The asymmetry is to allow for the strongest winds in a hurricane frequently being finther to the right of the center than the left - a consideration reflected also in the earlier studies discussed. This 125 nautical mile diameter circle approximates the region of hurricane force winds for a "typical" hurricane. It will usually be larger than the "core", and is fixed, like the segments in Simpson and Lawrence. HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES HAVE NO RELATION TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. Users of these probabilities must take the intensity and expected arrival time of tropical storm and hurricane force winds into account when assessing risk. The reader is urged to refer to The National Weather Service Hurricane Probability Program (Sheets, 1984) for a more thorough explanation of forecast probabilities. Statistics on total storm/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) can be found in Neumann, et al. (1993). A detailed breakdown of hurricanes by category which have affected coastal counties of the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean both directly and indirectly,can be found in Jarrell, Hebert, and Mayfield (1992), which has been updated where necessary for this technical memorandum. The best source of how a hurricane affected individual localities or states can be found in the annual articles on the hurricane season in the Monthly Weather Review (1995 for example) and Storm Dat (1995forexample). 4 3. DISCUSSION Part I (1) What have been the deadliest hurricanes of this century in the United States? Table 2 lists the 30 deadliest hurricanes to strike the mainland U.S. in this century. Although technically incorrect we have included 1900 in "this century". Three hurricanes prior to 1900, a tropical storm which affected southern California in 1939 and deadliest hurricanes affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are listed as an addendum because of their large death tolls. (2) What have been the costliest hurricanes of this century in the United States? Table 3 lists the 30 costliest hurricanes (including 4 tropical storms) to strike the mainland U.S. in this century. Figures are not adjusted for inflation. Table 3a re-orders some of these plus several other hurricanes (and I tropical storm) after adjusting to 1994 dollars'. Hawaiian, eastern Pacific, Puerto Rican and Virgin Island tropical cyclones are listed as addenda to Tables 3 and 3a. (3) What have been the most intense hurricanes to strike the United States during this century? Table 4 lists the 63 major hurricanes which have struck the mainland U.S. during this century. Hurricanes are ordered by the lowest estimated central pressure and/or highest category to affect the United States at time of landfall. Hawaiian, Puerto Rican and Virgin Island hurricanes are listed as an addenda to Table 4. Many of the island hurricanes are close passes, as opposed to landfalls as defined above. A look at the lists of deadliest and costliest hurricanes of this century reveals several striking facts: (1) The twelve deadliest hurricanes were all the equivalent of a category 4 or higher, if the excessive forward speed is considered as raising the category of a hurricane by one. (2) Large death totals were primarily a result of the 15 to 20 feet or more rise of the ocean (storm surge) associated with many of these major hurricanes. All but five of the thirty deadliest hurricanes were major hurricanes. Three of these five were the inland flood-producing hurricanes Agnes and Diane and Tropical Storm Alberto. (3) A large portion of the damage in three of the thirteen costliest tropical cyclones (Table 3) resulted from inland flooding caused by torrential rainfall in mountainous areas. (4) Three-fifffis of the deadliest hurricanes were the equivalent of a category four or higher, but only one-third of the costliest hurricanes (Table 3) met this criterion. (5) Only one of the deadliest hurricanes (plus one deadly tropical storm) have occurred during the past twenty five years in contrast to three-fifths of the costliest hurricanes (this drops to two-fifffis after adjustment for inflation). Addenda to tables 2, 3 and 4 include some noteworthy storms from pre- 1900, the U.S. Pacific coast and the Hawaiian islands, as well as the U. S. Caribbean Islands. The rank is where they would fall if each alone were ranked within the main table. Adjusted to 1994 dollars on basis of U.S. Departinent of Commerce Implicit Price Deflator for Construction. 5 Table, 2. The deadliest mainland United States hurricanes 1900-1995. (The top 30 are listed). RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DEATHS 1 TX (Galveston) 1900 4 8000 2 FL (SE/Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 1836 3 FL (Keys)/S TX 1919 4 600 4 New England 1938 3 600 5 FL (Keys) 1935 5 408 6 AUDREY (SW LA/N TX) 1957 4 390 7 NE U.S. 1944 3 3900 8 LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 350 9 LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 275 10 TX (Galveston) 1915 4 275 11 CAMILLE (MS/SE LAIVA) 1969 5 256 12 FL (Miami)/MS/AUPensacola 1926 4 243 13 DIANE (NE U.S.) 1955 1 184 14 SE FL 1906 2 164 15 MS/AUPensacola 1906 3 134 16 AGNES (FUNE U.S.) 1972 1 122 17 HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 95 18 BETSY (SE FUSE LA) 1965 3 75 19. CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 20 SE FUSE LA/MS 1947 4 51 21 DONNA (FUEastem U.S.) 1960 4 50 22 GA/SC/NC 1940 2 50 23 CARLA (N & Central TX) 1961 4 46 24 TX (Velasco) 1909 3 41 25 TX (Freeport) 1932 4 40 26 S TX 1933 3 40 27 HILDA (Central LA) 1964 3 38 28 SW LA 1918 3 34 29 SW FL 1910 3 30 30 ALBERTO (NW FL,GA,AL) 1994 TS & -30 ADDENDUM (Pre-1900 or Not AtlanticGulf Coast) 2 LA 1893 Unk 2000 2-3 SC/GA 1893 Unk 1000-2000 3 GAISC 1881 Unk 700 9 Puerto Rico 1928 4 312 13 USVI, Puerto Rico 1932 2 225 17 Donna (St. Thomas, VI) 1960 4 107 24 Southern California 1939 TS & 45 24 Eloise(Puerto Rico) 1975 TS & 44 May actually have been as high as 10,000 to 12,000 Moving more than 30 miles per hour Over 500 lost on ships at sea; 600-900 estimated deaths. Some 344 of these lost on ships at sea. & Only of Tropical Storm intensity. Unk Intensity not sufficiently known to establish category 6 Table 3. The costliest mainland United States hurricanes, 1900-1995, (The top 30 are listed). RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.) I ANDREW (SE FNE LA) 1992 4 $26,500,000,000 2 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000 3 OPAL (NW FUAL) 1995 3 3,000,000,000 4 FREDERIC (AUMS) 1979 3 2,300,000,000 5 AGNES (FUNE U.S.) 1972 1 2,100,000,000 6 ALICIA (N TX) 1983 3 2,000,000,000 7 BOB (NC, NE U.S) 1991 2 1,500,000,000 7 JUAN (LA) 1985 1 1,500,000,000 9 CAMILLE (MS/SE LAIVA) 1969 5 1,420,700,000 10 BETSY (SE FUSE LA) 1965 3 1,420,500,000 11 ELENA (MS/AUNW FL) 1985 3 1,250,000,000 12 GLORIA (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3 900,000,000 13 DIANE (NE U.S.) 1955 1 831,700,000 14 ALLISON (N TX) 1989 TS 500,000,000 14 ALBERTO (NW FL,GA,AL) 1994 TS 500,000,000 16 ELOISE (NW FL) 1975 3 490,000,000 17 CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 461,000,000 18 CELIA (S TX) 1970 3 453,000,000 19 CARLA (N & Central TX) 1961 4 408,000,000 20 CLAUDETTE (N TX) 1979 TS 400,000,000 20 GORDON (S & Cent FL,NC) 1994 TS 400,000,000 22 DONNA (FUEastern U.S.) 1960 4 387,000,000 23 DAVID (FUEastern U.S.) 1979 2 320,000,000 24 New England 1938 3 306,000,000 25 KATE (FL Keys/NW FL) 1985 2 300,000,000 25 ALLEN (S TX) 1980 3 300,000,000 27 HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 281,000,000 28 DORA (NE FL) 1964 2 250,000,000 29 BEULAH (S TX) 1967 3 200,000,000 30 AUDREY (SW LAIN TX) 1957 4 150,000,000 ADDENDUM 6 INIKI (Kauai, HI) 1992 Unk. 1,800,000,000 7 MARILYN (USVI, PR) 1995 2 1,500,000,000 12 HUGO (USVI, PR) 1989 4 1,000,000,000 22 OLIVIA (CA) 1982 T.D. & 325,000,000 23 IWA (Kauai, HI) 1982 Unk. 312,000,000 24 NORMAN (CA) 1978 T.D. & 300,000,000 29 KATHLEEN (CA & AZ) 1976 T.D. 160,000,000 Notes: Moving more than 30 miles per hour. Only of Tropical Storm intensity. Current estimate subject to change, probably too high. & Only a Tropical Depression Table 3a. The costliest mainland United States hurricanes, 1900-1995. (The top 30 are listed when adjusted@ to 1994 dollars.) RANK HURRICANE YEAR Category Damage (U.S.)' I ANDREW (SE FUSE LA) 1992 4 28,620,000,000 2 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,910,000,000 3 AGNES (FL/NE U.S.) 1972 1 6,930,000,000 4 BETSY (SE FUSE LA) 1965 3 6,875,220,000 5 CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) 1969 5 5,640,179,000 6 DIANE (NE U.S.) 1955 1 4,516,131,000 7 FREDERIC (AL/MS) 1979 3 3,933,000,000 8 New England 1938 3 3,864,780,000 9 OPAL (NW FUAQ 1995 3 2,880,000,000 10 ALICIA (N TX) 1983 3 2,760,000,000 11 CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 2,649,330,000 12 CARLA (N & Central TX) 1961 4 2,072,640,000 13 DONNA(FL/Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 1,962,090,000 14 JUAN (LA) 1985 1 1,950,000,000 15 CELIA (S TX) 1970 3 1,694,220,000 16 BOB (NC, NE U.S) 1991 2 1,635,000,000 .17 ELENA (MS/AL/NW FL) 1985 3 1,625,000,000 18 HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 1,553,930,000 19 FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola 1926 4 1,414,560,000 20 N TX (Galveston) 1915 4 1,264,800,000 21 DORA (NE FL) 1964 2 1,245,000,000 22 ELOISE (NW FL) 1975 3 1,190,700,000 23 GLORIA (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3 1,170,000,000 24 NE U.S. 1944 3 994,000,000 + 25 BEULAH (S TX) 1967 3 900,000,000 26 N TX (Galveston) 1900 4 759,909,000 27 SE FUSE LA/MS 1947 4 756,800,000 28 AUDREY (SW LAIN TX) 1957 4 748,500,000 29 CLAUDETTE(N TX) 1979 T.S. 684,000,000 30 CLEO (SE FL) 1964 2 639,930,000 ADDENDUM 15 INIKI (Kauai, HIT 1992 Unk. 1,944,000,000 19 MARILYN (USVI,E. PR) 1995 2 1,440,000,000 24 HUGO (USVI, PR) 1989 4 1,130,000,000 24 SAN FELIPE (PR) 1928 4 1,071,000,000 notes Adjusted to 1994 dollars on basis of U.S. DOC Implicit Price Deflator for Construction. 1995 damages adjusted downward. Moving more than 36 miles per hour Current estimate subject to change, probably too high. Damage estimate was considered too high in 1915 reference. + Probably higher 2 Using 1915 cost adjustment base - none available prior to 1915 Only of Tropical Storm intensity, included because of high damage. 8 Table 4. The most Intense mainland United States hurricanes, 1900-1995. CATEGORY MINIMUM PRESSURE CATEGORY MINIMUM PRESSURE RANK HURRICANE YEAR (at landfall) Millibars Inches RANK HURRICANE YEAR (at landfall) Millibars Inches I FL (Keys) 1935 5 892 26.35 33 BEULAH (S TX) 1967 3 950 28.05 2 CAMILLE (MS/SE LAIVA) 1969 5 909 26.84 33 HILDA (Central LA) 1964 3 950 28.05 ANDREW (SE FUSE LA) 1992 4 922 27.23 3 zg 33 GRACIE (SC) 1959 3 950 28.05 4 FL (Keys)/S TX 1919 4 927 27.37 33 TX (Central) 1942 3 950 28.05 5 FL (Lake Okeechobee) 11928 4 929 27.43 g';'V 37 SE FL 1945 3 951 28.08 I,N 6 DONNA (FUEastem U.S.) 1960 4 930 27.46 38 FL (Tampa Bay) 1921 3 952 28.11 7 TX (Galveston) 1900 4 931 27.49 38 CARMEN (Central LA) 1974 3 952 28.11 7 LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 931 27.49 40 EDNA (New England) 1954 3 954 28.17 7 LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 931 27.49 40 SE FL 1949 3 954 28.17 42 ELOISE (NW FL) 1975 3 955 28.20 7 CARLA (N & Central TX) 1961 4 931 27.49 11 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 934 27.58 42 KING (SE FL) 1950 3 955 28.20 12 FL (Miami)/MS/AUPensacola 1926 4 935 27.61 42 Central LA 1926 3 955 28.20 13 HAZEL (SCfNC) 1954 4 938 27.70 'V@5 42 SW LA 1918 3 955 28.20 14 SE FUSE LAIMS 1947 4 940 27.76 42 SW FL 1910 3 955 28.20 15 N TX 1932 4 941 27.79 47 NC 1933 3 957 28.26 16 GLORIA (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3 942 27.82 47 FL (Keys) 1909 3 957 28.26 16 OPAL (NW FUAL) 1995 3 & 942 27.82 49 EASY (NW FL) 1950 3 958 28.29 18 AUDREY (SW LAIN TX) 1957 4 945 27.91 49 N TX 1941 3 958 28.29 18 TX (Galveston) 1915 4 945 27.91 49 NWFL 1917 3 958 28.29 -R 18 CELIA (S TX) 1970 3 945 27.91 49 N TX 1909 3 958 28.29 18 ALLEN (S TX) 1980 3 945 27.91 49 MS/AL 1906 3 958 28.29 @fj 54 ELENA (MSIAUNW FL) 1985 3 959 28.32 22 New England 1938 3 946 27.94 22 FREDERIC (AUMS) 1979 3 946 27.94 55 CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 960 28.35 24 NE U.S. 1944 3 947 27.97 Is. 55 IONE (NC) 1955 3 960 28.35 24 SC/NC 1906 3 947 27.97 A 55 EMILY (NC) 1993 3 960 28.35 26 BETSY (SE FUSE LA) 1965 3 948 27.99 "M. 58 ALICIA (N TX) 1983 3 962 28.41 26 SE FUNW FL 1929 3 948 27.99 58 CONNIE (NCNA) 1955 3 962 28.41 26 SE FL 1933 3 948 27.99 1k, 58 SW FUNE FL 1944 3 962 28.41 26 S TX 1916 3 948 27.99 58 Central LA 1934 3 962 28.41 26 MS/AL 1916 3 948 27.99 2,04 62 SW FUSE FL 1948 3 963 28.44 31 DIANA (NC) 1984 3+ 949 28.02 rA 63 NW F L 1936 3 964 @8.47 31 S TX 1933 3 949 28.02 if ADDENDUM 4 DAVID (S of PR) 1979 4 924 27,29 7 San Felipe (PR) 1928 4 931 27.49 'MIA Notes Moving 14 HUGO (USVI & PR) 1989 4 940 27.76 more than 30 miles per hour. 32 INIKI (KAUAI, HI) 1992 LINK 950 27.91 Highest category justified by winds. kl,q.k 41 DOT (KAUAI, HI) 1959 UNK 955 28.11 P"N" N Classified 4 because of estimated winds. 49 DONNA (St.Thomas, PR) 1960 4 958 28.29, Cape Fear, NC area only; was a category 2 at final landfall. 62 IWA (KAUAI, HI) 1982 LINK 964 28.47 Table 4a. Direct hits by mainland Table 4a summarizes the direct hits United States Hurricanes (1900-1995) on the U. S. mainland this century. The implication of table 4a is that Category .Direct Hits during the period 1900-1995, an 5 2 average of 2 major hurricanes every 4 15 3 years made landfall somewhere 3 46 along the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic 2 36 coast. (All categories combined 1 57 average about 5 hurricanes every 3 TOTAL 156 years for the same period.) MAJOR 63 Major hurricanes are categories 3,4 & 5. One of the greatest concerns of the I National Weather Service's (NWS) hurricane preparedness officials is that the statistics in tables 2-4 will mislead people into thiding that no more luZe loss of life will occur in a hurricane because of o advanced technology. Dr. Robert Burpee, spokesman for the NWS hurricane warning service and Director of TPC, as well as former NHC Directors, Dr. Robert Sheets and Dr. Neil Frank, have repeatedly emphasized the great danger of a catastrophic loss of life in a future hurricane if proper preparedness plans for vulnerable areas are not formulated and maintained. The study by Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield (1992), using 1990 census data, showed that 85% of U.S. coastal residents from Texas to Maine had ney experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane. Many of those 45 million residents had moved to coastal sections during the past twenty-five years. Even the landfalls of Andrew. Hugo and QVal have not lessened an ever growing concern brought by the continued increase in coastal populations. Table 5 which lists hurricanes by decades in this century shows that during the twenty ye .ar penod 1960-1979 both the number and intensity of landfalling U.S. hurricanes decreased sharply! Based on 1900-1959 statistics, the expected number of hurricanes and major hurricanes during the period 1960-1979 was 36 and 15, respectively. In fact, only 27 or 75% of the expected number of hurricanes struck the U.S. with only 10 major hurricanes or 67% of that expected number. The decade of the eighties showed little change to this trend. Even the decade of the nineties, to date, shows below average landfall frequencies. If the near record 1995 pace of storm frequencies continues, a reversal in the recent trend may be upon us. On the average a category 4 or greater hurricane strikes the U.S. once every 6 years. Even with two category 4 hurricanes in three years, Hugo in 1989 and Andrew in 1992, these are the only category 4 hurricanes since 1969. Fewer hurricanes do not necessarily mean a lesser threat of disaster, however. The 1919 hurricane which is both the third deadliest and fourth most intense of this century to strike the U.S. occurred in a year which had a total of only three storms/hurricanes. Records for the most intense U.S. hurricane in 1935 and the costliest, Andrew in 1992, occurred in years which had only six tropical storms or hurricanes. 10 The conclusions are obvious. A large death toll in a U.S. hurricane is still possible. The decreased death totals in recent years may be as much a result of lack of major hurricanes striking the most vulnerable areas as they are of any fail-proof forecasting, warning, and observing systems. Continued coastal growth and inflation will almost certainly result in every future major landfalling hurricane (and even weaker hurricanes and tropical storms) replacing one of the current costliest hurricanes. If warnings are heeded and preparedness plans developed, the death toll can be reduced, but, in the absence of a change of attitude or laws restricting building near the ocean, large property losses are inevitable. Table 5. Number of hurricanes by category to strike the mainland U.S. each decade. (Updated from Hebert et al. 1995) Categ= AL Maig-r DECADE 1 2 3 4 5 1,2,3,4,5 3,4,5 1900-1909 5 5 4 2 0 16 6 1910-1919 8 3 5 3 0 19 8 1920-1929 6 4 3 2 0 15 5 1930-1939 4 5 6 1 1 17 B 194o-1949 7 8 7 1 0 23 8 1950-1959 8 1 7 2 0 18 9 1960-1969 4 5 3 2 1 15 6 1970-1979 6 2 4 0 0 12 4 1980-1989 9 1 5 1 0 16 6 1990-1995 0 2 2 1 0 5 3 1900-1995 57 36 46 15 2 156 63 Note: Only the highest category to affect the U.S. has been used A TMS PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY 12 Part 11 In addition to information about U.S. hurricanes, this section also includes statistics on total tropical storm and hurricane activity. (1) What is the average number of hurricanes per year? Table 6 gives the average number of tropical cyclones which reached storm strength and hurricane strength for various time periods. A total of ten tropical cyclones reaching storm strength with five or six of these becoming hurricanes appears to be the best averages to use Table 6. Average number of tropical cyclones which reached storm and based on the past 10 hurricane strength for various periods. Updated from Neumann, et al. (1993). to 50 year time periods. Average number of Average number of PERIOD Number of years Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes (2) What year(s) 1886 - 1995 110 8.5 5.0 1946 - 1995 50 9.7 5.7 have had the most 1956 - 1995 40 9.6 5.5 a n d I e a s t 1966 - 1995 30 9.9 5.5 1976 - 1995 20 9.7 5.4 hurricanes? Table 1981 - 1995 15 9.7 5.1 7 shows the years of 1986 - 1995 10 9.9 5.3 maximum and Includes subtropical storms after 1967 mi m-mum tropical cyclone and hurricane activity for the entire Atlantic Ocean. The only years when a hurricane failed to strike the U.S. coast were 1902, 1905, 1907, 1914, 1922, 1927, 1930, 1931, 1937, 1951, 1958, 1962, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1990 and 1994.. Note that only twice has the U.S. gone as long as two years without a hurricane. The most hurricanes to strike the U.S. in one year were six in 1916 and 1985. There were five in 1933, and four in 1906, 1909, and 1964. Three hurricanes have struck the U.S. in one year a total of fifteen Table 7. Years of ma)dmum and minimum tropical cyclone and hurricane activity in the North times. Ten of these fifteen Adanft Caribbean, and Gulf of Me)dco 1871 -1995 (updated from Neumann, et al., 1993) times occurred during the sixteen years from 1944 to MAXIMUM ACTIVITY 1959! A chronological list of TROPICAL CYCLONES' - HURRICANES' Number Years Number Years all hurricanes to strike the 21 1933 12 1969 U.S. during this century 19 1995 11 1916,1950,1995 is 1969 10 1887,1893,1933 through 1991 including 17 1887 9 19S5,1980 month, category by states 16 1936 affected, and minimum sea MINIMUM ACTIVITY level pressure at landfall can TROPICAL CYCLONES' HURRICANES" Number Years Years be found in Jarrell, Hebert 1 1890,1914 0 1907,1914 and Mayfield (1992). 2 1925,1930 1 1890,1905,1919, 1925 2 1895,1897,1904 1917,1922,1930, 1931,1982 Notes I Includes subtropical storms after 1967. 2 Distinction of hurricanes recorded only after 1885. 13 (3) When did the earliest and latest hurricane occur? The hurricane season is defined as June I through November 30. An early hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months prior to the start of the season, and a late hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months after the season. With these criteria the earliest observed hurricane in the Atlantic was on March 7, 1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second "Alice" of that year which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. The earliest hurricane to strike the U.S. in this century was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. The latest hurricane to strike the U.S. was late on November 3 0, 1925 near Tampa, Florida. (4) What were the longest-lived and shortest-lived hurricanes? Ginger in 1971 holds the record for both the most number of days as a hurricane (20) and tropical cyclone (28). There have been many tropical cyclones which attained hurricane intensity for periods of 12 hours or less. (5) Nftat were the strongest and weakest Atlantic hurricanes? To strike the United States? In terms of central pressure (and probably winds), the strongest observed hurricane in the Atlantic basin was Gilbert in 1988 with a pressure of 888 millibars while located in the northwest Caribbean. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 millibars was the strongest hurricane to strike the U.S. Numerous hurricanes have reached only the minimum wind speed near 74 miles per hour and struck the U.S. (6) 'How many hurricanes have there been in each month? Table 8 adapted from Neumann, et al. (1993) shows the total and average number of tropical cyclones and those which became hurricanes by months for the period 1886-1995. In addition, the monthly total and average number of hurricanes to strike the U.S. in this century (updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield, 1995) are given. Table 8. Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by month of origin, 1886-1995 (updated from Neumann et al. 1993), and for hurricanes striking the U.S. mainland (updated from Hebert, et al. 1995). TROPICAL CYCLONES' HURRICANES U.S. HURRICANES2 MONTH Total Average Total Average Total Average JANUARY-APRIL 4 1 0 0.0F-- MAY 14 0.1 3 0 0.00 JUNE 59 0.5 24 0.2 11 0.11 JULY 72 0.7 36 0.3 16 0.17 AUGUST 230 2.1 157 1.4 40 0.42 SEPTEMBER 316 2.9 199 1.8 61 0.64 OCTOBER 193 1.8 99 0.9 24 0.25 NOVEMBER 44 0.4 23 0.2 4 0.04 DECEMBER 6 0.1 3 0 0.00 YEAR 938 8.5 545 5.0 156 1.42 Includes subtropical storms after 1967. See Neumann, et al. (1993) for details. 2For 1900-1995, (updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield, 1995) Less than 0.05. 14 (7) What was the largest number of hurricanes in existence in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time? According to information on the current version of the master data file of Neumann, et al (1993), there have never been four hurricanes in existence in the North Atlantic at the same time in this century. On August 22, 1893 four hurricanes co-existed, one of them being the hurricane which killed an estimated 2,000 people in Georgia-South Carolina several days later. On September 11, 1961 three hurricanes and 12ossibly a fourth existed. The only other years in this century with three hurricanes on the map at the same time were 1950 and 1967. In 1971 from September 10 to 12, there were five tropical cyclones in existence at once; however while four of these ultimately achieved hurricane intensity, never more than two were hurricanes at any one time. (8) How many direct hits by hurricanes of various categories have affected each state? Table 9, updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield, (1995), shows the number of hurricanes (direct hits) affecting the U.S. and individual states. 'Me table shows that on the average close to three hurricanes evga two yeam (1.5 per year) strike the U.S., while two mgjLor hurricanes cross the U.S. coast somewhere ey= three years (0.67 per year). Other noteworthy facts, updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield, (1.995), are: 1.) Thirty-seven percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida; 2.) Seventy-one percent of category 4 or higher hurricanes have hit either Florida or Texas; 3.) Approximately half the hurricanes to strike along the middle Gulf coast, southern Florida, New York and southern New England are major ones. Table 9. Hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. coastline and for individual states 1900-1995 by Saffir/Simpson category (updated from Hebert et al. 1995). MAJOR CATEGORY NUMBER ALL HURRICANES AREA 1 2 3 4 5 U.S. (Twiss to Maine) 58 35 46 15 2 156 63 Texas 12 9 9 6 0 36 15 (North) 7 3 3 4 0 17 7 (Centi'at) 2 2 1 1 0 8 2 (South) 3 4 5 1 0 13 6 Louisiana a 5 a 3 1 25 12 Mississippi 1 1 5 0 1 8 6 Alabama 4 1 5 0 0 10 5 Florida 17 16 17 6 1 57 24 (Northwest) 9 8 7 0 0 24 7 (Northeast) 2 7 0 0 0 9 0 (Southwest) 6 3 6 2 1 is 9 (Southeast) 5 10 7 4 0 26 11 Georgia 1 4 0 0 0 5 0 South Carolina 6 4 2 2 0 114 4 North Carolina 10 3 9 1 0 23 10 Virginia 2 1 1 * 0 0 4 1 . Maryland 0 1 * 0 0 0 1 . 0 Delaware 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Jersey 1 0 0 0 0 1 . 0 New York 3 1 . 5 . 0 0 9 5 - Connecticut 2 3 * 3 ' 0 0 8 3 - Rhode Island 0 2 * 3 0 0 5 . 3 - Massachusetts 2 2 * 2 0 0 6 2' New Hampshire 1 1 * 0 0 0 2* 0 Maine 5* 0 0 0 0 5 0 Notes: Indicates all hurricanes in this group were moving faster than 30 mph. State totals will not equal U,S. totals, and Texas or Florida totals will not necessarily equal sum of sectional totals. is (9) When are the mago hurricanes likely to strike given areas? Table 10 shows the incidence of major hurricanes by months for the mainland U.S. and individual states. For the United States as a whole, September has had more major hurricanes than all other months combined. However, four of the most devastating hurricanes did not occur in September--ANDREW (August 1992), CAMILLE (August 1969), AUDREY (June 1957), and HAZEL (October 1954). Only in Texas and Louisiana are major hurricanes in August and September almost an equal threat. Most major October hurricanes occur in southern Florida. Table 10. Incidence of major hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. and individual states, 1900-1995, by Saffir/Simpson category. (Updated from Hebert, et al. 1995) AREA JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. ALL U.S. (Texas to Maine) 2 3 15 35 8 63 Texas 1 1 7 6 15 (North) 1 1 3 2 7 (Central) 1 1 2 (South) 3 3 6 Louisiana 2 4 5 1 12 Mississippi 1 1 4 6 Alabama 1 4 5 Florida 1 2 15 6 24 (Northwest) 1 5. 1 7 (Northeast) 0 (Southwest) 1 5 3 9 (Southeast) 2 7 2 11 Georgia 0 South Carolina 3 1 4 North Carolina 2 7 1 10 Virginia 1 1 Maryland 0 Delaware 0 New Jersey 0 New York 1 4 5 Connecticut 1 2 3 Rhode Island 1 2 3 Massachusetts 2 2 New Hampshire 0 Maine 0 Note: State totals do not equal U.S. totals and Texas or Florida totals do not necessarily equal the sum of sectional entries. 16 (10) How long has it been since a major hurricane diregft hit a given community? Any hurricane? Indirectly? Table 11 summarizes the occurrence of the last major hurricane or of any hurricane to directly hit the more populated coastal communities from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine. In addition, if a hurricane indirectly affected a community after the last direct hit, it is listed in the last column of the table. In order to obtain the same type of information listed in Table I I for the remaining coastal communities, the reader is referred to Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield (1992). There are many illustrative examples of the uncertainty of when a hurricane might strike a given locality. Pensacola, Florida, in 1995 experienced a direct hit by hurricanes Erin and an indirect hit from major hurricane Opal within two months after a period of nearly 70 years without a direct hit. Miami, which expects a major hurricane every 25 years, on average, was struck by a major hurricane in 1992 for the first time since 1950. Tampa, hasn't experienced a major hurricane for 75 years. Many locations along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts have never experienced a major hurricane in this century (see Table 11). (11) What is the total United States damage (before and after adjustment for inflation) and death toll for each year of this century? Table 12 summarizes this information. Tables 12a ranks the years by deaths, by unadjusted damage and by adjusted damage. In most years the death and damage totals are the result of a single, major hurricane. Gentry (1966) gives damages adjusted to 1957-59 costs as a base for the period 1915-1965. For the most part, death and damage totals for the period 1915-1965 were taken -from Gentry's paper, and for the remaining years from the Monthly Weather Review. Adjusted damages were calculated to 1994 dollars by the same factors as used in Table 3a. 17 Table 11. Last direct or indirect hit by any or a major hurricane at certain Populated coastal communities. Category in parenthesis (Updated from Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield, 1992) Direct Hits Indirect Hits Direct Hits Indirect Hits State city Last Major Last Any 7 '@J Last any State city Last Major 77 75,117 Last any LastAny 1161 Texas Brownsville 1980(3) Allen 1980(3) Allen Florida Cocoa <1900 1995(l) Erin N 1970(3) Celia @"kv` @1 r@!' 1980(3) Allen Daytona Bch <1900 'i, 1960(2) Donna 1979(2) David Corpus Christi 1971(l) Fem Port Aransas 1970(3) Celia 1971(l) Fern 1980(3) Allen St. Augustine <1900 1964(2) Dora Matagorda 1961(4) Carla Jig' 1971(l) Fem 1983(3) Alicia Jacksonville <1900 AE@ 1964(2) Dora Freeport 1983(3) Alicia 1983(3) Alicia Fernandina Bch <1900 J-di 1928(2) 1964(2) Dora Galveston 1983(3) Alicia 1989(l) Jerry Georgia Brunswick <1900 1928(1) f 1989(1) Jerry Savannah <1900 QU 1979(2) David Houston 1941(3) A- <1900 1986(l) Bonnie S. Carolina Hilton Head 1959(3) Gracie W@1, 1979(2) David 1985(l) Bob Beaumont 1985(l) Juan y 0 Louisiana Cameron 1957(4) Audre A 1985(l) Danny Charleston 1989(4) Hugo 1989(4) Hug Morgan City 1992(3) Andrew Andrew 111 Myrtle Beach 1954(4*) Hazel 1954(4-) Hazel 'S,t 1989(4) Hugo Houma 1974(3) Carmen 1985(l) Juan 1992(3) Andrew N. Carolina Wilmington 1960(3*) Donna 1984(2) Diana @',.!'%v New Orleans 1965(3) Betsy 1965(3) Betsy 1969(5) Camille Morehead City 1960(3*) Donna 1960(3*) Donna 1985(3*) Gloria Mississippi Bay St. Louis 1985(3) Elena 1985(3) Elena Cape Hatteras 1993(3) Emily 1993(3) Emily Biloxi 1985(3) Elena 1985(3) Elena Virginia Virginia Beach 1944(3*) 1986(1) Charley Norfolk Connie 1985(3) Elena <1900 1955(l) Pascagoula 1985(3) Elena 1985(3*) Gloria 1985(3) Elena Alabama Mobile R 1985(3) Elena Maryland Ocean City <1900 -A 1985(3*) Gloria <1900 Florida Pensacola 1926(3) 1995(l) Erin 1995(3) Opal Baltimore <1900 "I"IN < i go o 1954(2*) Hazel Panama City 1995(3) Opal 1995(3) Opal Delaware Rehoboth Bch <1900 <1900 1985(3*) Gloria Wilmington <1900 <1900 "@R 1954(2*) Hazel Apalachicola 1985(3) Elena 1985(2) Kate -in 1995(3) Opal Homosassa 1950(3) Easy 1968(2) Gladys New Jersey Cape May <1900 1903(l) 1985(3*) Gloria Atlantic City 1921(3) 1968(2) Gladys St. Petersburg 1946(l) <1900 1903(l) 1985(3*) Gloria Tampa 1921(3) 1946(l) 1968(2) Gladys New York New York City <1900 1903(1) 1976(l) Belle Sarasota 1944(3) 1946(l) 1966(2) Alma Westhampton 1985(3*) Gloria 1985(3*) Gloria 1991(2*) Bob Fort Myers 1960(3) Donna 1960(3) Donna 1966(2) Alma Connecticut New London 1938(3*) 11 1992(3) Andrew New Haven 1938(3-) 29P 1985(2-) Gloria Naples 1960(4) Donna 1964(2) Isbe Key West 1948(3) 1987(l) Floyd Bridgeport 1954(3*) Carol 1985(2*) Gloni a N Miami 1992(4) Andrew 1992(4) Andrew R"R Rhode Island Providence 1954(3*) Carol 1991(2*) Bob 1964(2) Cleo 1992(4) Andrew Mass. Cape Cod 1954(3-) Edna 19912) Bob Fort Lauderdale 1950(3) King 41 West Palm Beach 1949(3) 1979(2) David Boston <1900 1960 1*) Donna 1991(1-) Bob 10 Stuart 1949(3) 1979(2) David N. Hampshir Portsmouth <1900 1985 2*) G a ri 1985 1*) lo 1979(2) David Maine Portland <19100 G ria Fort Pierce 1933(3) Eastport <19 1969(l) Gloria Vero Beach <1900 1 995(l) Erin U I I I Gerda Notes: <1900 means before 1900 Notes: Cape fear only, Moving over 30 mph Table 12. Estimated annual deaths and damages (unadjusted and adjusted' ) in the mainland United States from landfalling Atlantic or Gulf hurricanes 1900-1995. DAMAGE ($Millions) DAMAGE ($Millions) YEAR DEATHS Unadjusted Adjusted' !1T !A@ YEAR DEATHS Unadjusted Adjusted' , N-11, 1900 8000 30 790 ko@ V1948 3 18 113 2 1901 10 1 26 1949 4 59 370 1902 0 Minor Minor 1950 19 36 222 2 1903 15 1 26 1951 0 2 11 2 uq@,Z, 19D4 5 2 53 y1'@Fpgl-g 1952 3 3 16 W, 1905 0 Minor Minor Vi 1953 2 6 33 w-, @'i, 5,7@ -,A 1906 298 3+ 792 rr, 1954 193 756 4180 1907 0 0 0 @`,,@-A 1955 218 985 5348 1908 0 0 0 139 1956 19 27 tEzl 1909 4D6 8 21 1 2 1957 400 152 758 262 1958 2 11 55 1910 30 1 1911 17 1 262 @t6llg,4 1959 24 23 116 1912 1 Minor Minor 1960 65 396 2006 1913 5 3 792 _&4, 1961 46 414 2102 003111 INK, - 1914 0 0 0 1962 3 2 10 1916 550 63 16603 1 1963 10 12 59 0', 1916 107 33 723 1964 49 515 2564 1917 5 Minor Minor 1965 75 1445 6996 1918 34 5 71 1966 54 15 70 "k-PT 1919 287s 22 278 1967 18 200 900 1920 2 3 30 1968 9 10 43 1921 6 3 38 1969 256 1421 5647 1922 0 0 0 1970 11 454 1699 1923 0 Minor Minor 1971 8 213 747 1924 2 Minor Minor 1972 122 2100 6924 1925 6 Minor Minor 3, 1973 5 3 9 "'N 1926 269 112 1415 1974 1 150 396 1927 0 0 0 1975 21 490 1191 1928 1836 25 315 1976 9 100 233 -J@ 1929 3 1 12 7, 1977 0 10 22 1930 0 Minor Minor 1978 36 20 38 1931 0 0 0 1979 22 3045 5210 1932 0 0 0 1980 2 300 463 1933 63 47 701 1981 0 25 36 .17 68 1934 5 1982 0 Minor Minor 1935 414 12 163 11V,,tWQ` 1983 22 2000 2751 ,p 1936 9 2 28 ffig, 19 4 66 84 88 1937 0 Minor Minor 1985 30 4000 5197 1938 600 306 3864 1986 9 17 21 1939 3 Minor Minor 1987 0 8 10 5 1940 51 66 1988 6 9 1 1941 10 8 98 11@ vNiA 1989 56 7670 8640 1942 8 27 286 1990 13 57 63 199 1943 16 17 169 1 16 1500 1637 1944 64s 165 1641 1992 24 26500 28687 1945 7 80 773 17',' 1993 4 57 59 1946 0 5 41 1994 38 973 973 4 4 1947 53 136 935 1995 29 3723 3582 Adjusted to 1994 dollars based on U.S. Department of Commerce Implicit Price Deflator for Construction. 1995 damages adjusted downward. 2 Using 1915 cost adjustment - none available prior to 1915. 3 Considered too high in 1915 reference. 4 Current estimate - subject to change. S Figures do not agree with table 2 because these figures are for landfalling hurricanes and do not include non-coastal deaths at sea. 19 Table 12a. Same information as in table 12, but only the top 30 years are ranked in colums by deaths, by unadjusted damages, and by adjusted' damages. Ranked on Ranked on Ranked on Deaths Unadjusted Damage Adjusted' Damage 1 1900 8000 1 1992 26500 1 1992 28620 2 1989 7670 2 1989 8667 2 1928 1836 "R 1965 3 1938 600 3 1985 4000 3 6994 ME 4 1915 550 4 1972 6930 4 1995 3723 Vull 5 1935 414 5 1979 3045 5 1969 5641 6 1909 406 0 6 1972 2100 6 1955 5349 7 1957 400 N, 7 1983 2000 7 1979 5207 8 1906 298 8 1991 1500 8 1985 5200 9 1919 287 9 1965 1445 N 9 1954 4181 lg M9 10 1926 269 10 1969 1421 10 1938 3865 1955 11 1969 256 985 11 1995 3582 10 W 12 1955 218 12 1994 973 12 1983 2760 001, TR - 13 1954 193 13 1954 756 13 1964 2565 "Ygk 1 1972 122 14 1964 515 4 14 1961 2103 15 1916 107 15 1975 490 15 1960 2008 16 1965 75 16 1970 454 16 1970 1698 17 1960 65 17 1961 414 17 1915 1660 18 1944 1640 18 1944 64 18 1960 396 lb,azi. 19 1931 63 19 1938 306 19 1991 1635 1989 56 @No RD 20 WWO, @al'lli 20 1980 300 20 1926 1415 21 1975 1191 21 1966 54 RRA 21 1971 213 1994 973 22 1947 53 MMYEI 22 1967 200 22 23 1940 51 165 23 1947 936 23 1944 24 1964 49 24 1957 152 24 1967 900 25 1961 46 25 1974 150 25 1900 790 26 1994 38 26 1947 136 26 1945 773 27 1978 36 2@1 27 1926 112 27 1957 758 -0 1 1 161"' 28 1918 34 28 1976 100 1 28 1971 748 29 1910 30 Mi 29 1945 80 29 1916 723 SIN 30 30 30 1984 1985 30 1933 701 +May actually have been as high as 10,000 to 12,000. Adjusted to 1994 dollars based on U.S. Department of Commerce Implicit Price Deflator for Construction. 1995 adjusted downward. 2Considered too high in 1915 reference. 3Using 1915 cost adjustment - none available prior to 1915. sFigures do not agree with table 2 because these figures are for landfalling hurricanes and do not include non-coastal deaths at sea. 20 (12) Are there hurricane cycles? Figures I through 10 show the landfalling portion of the tracks of major hurricanes which have struck any portion of the United States during this century. The reader might note the tendency of the major hurricanes to cluster in certain areas during certain decades. Another interesting point is the general tendency for this clustering to occur in the latter half of individual decades in one area and in the first half of individual decades in another area. During the very active period of the thirties this clustering is not apparent. A comparison of twenty-year periods beginning in 1900 indicates that the major hurricanes tended to be in the western Gulf Coast states at the beginning of the century, shifting to the eastern Gulf Coast states and Florida during the next twenty years, then to Florida and the Atlantic Coast states during the forties and fifties, and back to the western Gulf Coast states in the sixties and seventies. Do figures 9 and 10 indicate a shift to the eastern Gulf Coast states, Florida, and the Atlantic Coast states in the eighties and nineties? 21 100* 95* so, 85, so* 75* 70' 65* MXJ5R U.S'. HUAR18AXNES (I- CATEGORY 3) 1901-1910 40. Y@ .0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 35. .1906 . . . . . . . . fig . . . . . . . . . . . 190 . . . . . . 1906- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1910 30' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . f906 9 . . . . . . . . . . 190 190*9 . . . . . . . . . . . 25 . . . . . . . 41 25 .1910 1909 95* 90. B5* so* 75* 70* 65, Figure 1. Major landfOing United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1901-1910. 100* 95, 85* so, 75' 70* 65* MAJOR U.S. HUPR18ANES CATEGORY 3) 1911-1920 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0. 0 ... ... .... .. . .. . ... .... .... .... .. .... .... ... . . . . . . . . . . .... .... ... 35 Is. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -19-15 1918 - 1916. 1917 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 * I 'k - - 0. 0-@ litNoor 1919 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1918 71,916. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1916' 1915 917 '0 . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1915 5- 1916 1919 90, 15 so* 75* 70' 65* ;NES @I 906 . . . 906- . . . 1910 9o,9 7NES, 1917@ 1916. @I %15 1918 ' 4@58 ri.7 191 191 91 .0 . . . . . . . . . . . 191 @5 Figure 2. Ma or landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) i during the period 1911-1920. 22 100* 95* 90, 85* 80* 75* 70' 65* MAJO R U.S. HURRICANES . . . . . . (a CATEGORY 3) 1921-1930 110. ... ... .... .. . .... .... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35' 35' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1926 30' 30. . . . . . . 1921 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '1918 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1926 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1921 1929 5. 26' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1929 L.0 5. 90. 85, 80* 75. 70' 65* Figure 3. Major lanffalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1921-1930. 100* 95* 90* 65* so* 75* 70* 65* MAJ8R U.S1. HU9RICANES . . . . . . . (2: CATEGORY 3) . . . . . . . 1.9 a . . . . . . . . . 1931-1940 -Y@ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . go-1933 . . . . . . . 35' 35' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3A 1936 . . . . 1933 . . . . . . . . 30 1932 0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1936 1933 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1932 1S 14 . . . . 193 1933 1933 25 1933 935 ;NESN- 19426 Is' 92' .192.8 19*291 19 . . . . 1921 PNES @j 1936 @1 9 32 93- @193X3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95* 90* 85, f3o* 70' 65* Figure 4. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period. 1931-1940. 23 100* 95, 90* 85* 80* 75' 70* 65' MAJOR U.S. HURRICANES 1944 CATEGORY 3) 1941-1960 40. 40' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 35' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1949 1945 . . . . . . . . . . . . .1944 . . . . . . . . 1941 1 7 3 A vr SY 30' 1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1941 \.1942 194 . . . . . . . 1960 5. 25' -- 4 9:4 a 1942 1944 . . . . . . 1 50 1945-)' . . . . . . . . . . . KING . . . . . . . 95* 90, as* BW 75* 70* 65' Figure 5. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1941-1950. 1 W 95* 90* as* 80* 75' 70* 65' MAJOR U.9. HUPR18ANES DONNA EDNA. CATEGORY 3) . . . . CAROL 1961-1960 ... .... ..... .... . .... ... 40. MINNIE .0. IONE 3 EL :DNA-1954 35' 10 NE-1955 GRAVE . . . . . . COt NIE-1 955 . . . . . . . PA@O@-l 9S4 . . . HAZEL -1954 . . . . . . . . . . . AUDI@E@- '959 3 GRAVE -1 1 30* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AUDREY 1957' . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1 5- DONNA . . . . . . . . . . . 1060 . . . . . . . N ;ES 1947 @"2 5 @9@)91N GO PNES @AU R@EYL -- @AREY 57 . . . T Li 95* 90, as* 80, 75* 70' 65* Figure 6. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1951-1960. 24 100, 95* 90* 85' 80, 75' 70* 65* MAJOR U.S. HURRICANES (1, CATEGORY 3) 1961-1970 40' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 5. . . . . . . . . . . . BESTY, . . . . . . IL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 MILD 30' CARLA CELIA CAMILLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HILDA 1969 CELIA 1964 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Y - Ir 1970 )LAM - CkRLA' '0 . . . . . . . . . . . 25' 961 . . . . . . . . . . . B@_Sly ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25' BEULAH % 1967 4* Ka . . . . . . 110 95* 90, 85* W 75* 70, 65* Figure 7. Major lanffalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1961-1970. 100, 95, go, as* 80, 75* 70* 65* MXJ8R U.9. HUPRI"WE'S (a CATEGORY 3) 1971-1980 0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35' . . . . . . . . . . . . FREDERIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ELOISE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CARMEN 30 1 -- f - )X 0. ELOISE .1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ALLEN FREDERIC CARMEN f979 ALLEN 197 25 '1980 25' 'A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100* 90* 85* 80* 75* 70* 65, PNES AMILLE 1969 BES7r MILD C IMILD EL A.19" 197 kR PNES ELO SE kA@ME@@t @ J0 Figure 8. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1971-1980. 25 100, 95, 90* 85, so* 75* 70' 65, MAJOR U.I. CATEGORY 3) HURRICANES 1981-1990 GLORIA 40. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35. 1 15' HUGO. DIANA . . . . . . . . . . . 61 'A' . . . . . . . -984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ELENA GLORIA A I . . I . . . . . . 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . UCIA1 HUGO 30* 30 1989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A -ICIA . . . ELENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1985 <) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25' - 4-%L 2 4J . II % . . . . . . . . . . . ic 5. 90* 85* 80* 75' 70* 65'- Figure 9. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3) during the period 1981-1990. 100* 950 90* 85* so, 75' 70' 65' 1 - M OR U.S. HU9RICANES (2: CATEGORY 3) 1991-2000 ... ... .... .... .... . .... ... 0 0. ... ... .... .. . .... .... ... EMILX . . . . . . . . . . . 35. EMILY . . . . . . . . 1993 . . . . . . . . . . . . OPAL 30' ANDREW 30* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0 . . . . . . . . . . . 25 ---:@@AN IDR 25' 4 1 . i . ... . . . . . . . . . . qANES A iA ;NESN ;GL 0 @R @LENJ@ IMA .19" LO@ 19 OPAL kANDR 1-P OPAL 1995 5. 90, 85* 80* 70' 65, Figure 10. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 33) during the period 1991-2000. 26 (13) Are there hurricane cycles evident in certain years regardless of category or geographical area? Table 13 gives a tabulation of hurricanes of all categories to affect the U.S. by individual years within each decade. Figures I through 10 certainly support the existence of a cyclical nature of major hurricanes affecting given regions. Table 13 is also suggestive of preferred periods. However, it is left to the reader to decide what weight should be given to these statistics. Table 13. Major and all category landfalling hurricanes in the mainland United States by individual years. Major Hurricanes Decade 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Total 1900-09 1 2 3 6 1910-19 1 2 2 1 1 1 8 1920-29 1 2 1 1 5 1930-39 1 3 1 1 1 1 8 1940-49 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 8 1950-59 2 3 2 1 1 9 1960-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1970-79 1 1 1 1 4 1980-89 1 1 1 2 1 6 TOTAL 7 3 2 4 9 10 7 4 4 10 60 1990-99 1 1 1 3 All HU Decade 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Total 1900-09 1 2 2 1 4 1 4 15 1910-19 2 2 2 2 3 6 1 1 1 20 1920-29 2 2. 1 2 1 3 2 2 15 1930-39 2 5 2 2 3 2 1 17 1940-49 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 3 3 3 23 1950-59 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 18 1960-69 2 1 1 4 1 2 1 1 2 Is 1970-79 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 12 1980-89 1 1 1 .6 2 1 1 3 16 TOTAL 14 12 8 16 17 20 23 8 11 22 151 1990-99 1 1 1 2 5 27 Table 14. Deadliest, Costliest Hurricanes of theTwentieth Century to affect Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Island or Damage ($000) Max Wind Min P Name Date CPA Unadjusted Adjusted Deaths (Mph) (Mb) Mokapu Cyclone Aug 19,1938 25 mi NE Oahu Unk Unk Unk Unk Unk Hiki Aug 15,1950 100 mi NE Hawaii Unk Unk Unk Unk Unk Nina Dec 02,1957 100 mi SW Kauai 200 998 4 90 965 Dot Aug 06,1959 Kauai 6,000 30,300 0 115 955 Iwa Nov 23,1982 25 mi NW Kauai 312,000 433,680 1 90 964 Iniki Sep 11,1992 Kauai 1,800,000 1,944.000 4 130 950 I RNA MIRIMIRMIMPRIM111 1111111111111111111111111111111111 MWIMEMWAM I Mangum MIMEW lww@w San Hipolito Aug 22,1916 Puerto Rico 1,000 21,900 1 98 988 San Liborio Jul 23,1926 SW Puerto Rico 5,000 63,150 25 81 -985 San Felipe Sep 13,1928 Puerto Rico 85,000 1,071,000 312 161 931 San Nicolas Sep 10, 1931 Puerto Rico 200 2,674 2 121 988 San Ciprian Sep 26,1932 USVI, PR 30,000 401,100 225 98 948 San Mateo Sep 21,1949 St. Croix Unk. Unk Unk 81 -985 Santa Clara (Betsy) Aug 12,1956 Puerto Rico 40,000 205,600 16 92 991 Donna Sep 05,1960 1 PR & St. Thomas Unk Unk 107 132 958 Eloise (T.S.) Sep 15,1975 1 Puerto Rico Unk Unk 44 40 1007 David Aug 30,1979 2 S. of Puerto Rico Unk Unk Unk 173 924 Frederic (T.S.) Sep 04,1979 2 Puerto Rico 125,000 213,760 7 58 1000 Hugo Sep 18,1989 USVI, PR 1,000,000 1,130,000 5 138 940 Marilyn Sep 16,1995 USVI, E. PR 1,500,000 1,440,000 8 109 952 2 Effects continued into the following day. Damage and Casualties from David and Frederic are combined. L Table 14 lists important hurricanes of Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U. S. Virgin Islands during the twentieth century. The Saffir/Simpson scale and the empirical Atlantic wind pressure relationship do not strictly apply in the Hawaiian area, and thus hurricanes are not readily comparable to those of the Atlantic basin. Additionally some of the hurricanes passing Kauai were moving fast and this translation speed probably adds to the maximum wind. In both island areas, some minimum pressure values appear inconsistent with the given wind values. This is largely attributable to the given minimum pressure and maximwn winds not necessarily being the extremes in the hurricane. SUMIVLARY In virtually every coastal city of any size from Texas to Maine, the present Tropical Prediction Center Director, Dr. Robert Burpee, or former National Hurricane Center Directors, Dr. Robert Sheets and Dr. Neil Frank, have stated that the United States is building toward a hurricane disaster. The population growth versus low hurricane experience levels indicated in Hebert, Taylor, and Case (1984), together with updated statistics presented by Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield (1992) form the basis for their statements. Stated simply, the areas of the United States where 9 out of 10 persons have lost their lives by drowning from the storm surge during hurricanes along the immediate Gul of Mexico and Atlantic shorelines) are the very areas where the most dramatic increases in population have occurred in recent years. This situation, in combination with continued building on low coastal elevations, will lead to serious problems for many areas in future hurricanes. Since it is likely that people will always live along the immediate shoreline, a pleasant way of life, the solution to the problem lies in education and preparedness. The message to coastal residents is this: Become familiar with what hurricanes can do, and when a hurricane threatens your area, increase your chances of survival by moving away from the water until the hurricane has passed! Unless this message is clearly understood by coastal residents through a thorough and continuing preparedness effort, disastrous loss of life is inevitable, in the future. Acknowledgments: The work of J.G. Taylor and R.A. Case, co-authors of previous versions of this paper, contributed much. Joan David drafted the figures. Linda Krernkau provided the 1990 census data. 29 REFERENCES Dunn, G.E., and Staff, 1967: Florida Hurricanes, ESSA Technical Memorandum WBTM-'SR-38, 28 pp. Gentry, R.C., 1966: Nature and Scope of Hurricane Damage, American Society for Oceanography, Hurricane Symposium, Publication Number One, 344 pp. Hebert, P.J., J.G. Taylor, and R.A -Case, 1984: Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations - Texas to Maine, NOAA, Technical Memorandum NWS-NHC-24,127 pp. HebeM P.J., J.D. Jarrell, and B.M. Mayfield, 1995: The Deadliest@ Costliest and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts), NOAA, Technical Memorandum NWS-NHC-3l, 41 pp. Jarrell, J.D., P.J. Hebert, and B.M. Mayfield, 1992: Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations - Texas to Maine, NOAA, Technical Memorandum NWS-NHC-46,152 pp. Neumann, C.J., B.R. Jarvinen, C.J. McAdie, and J.D. Elms, 1993: Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1992, NOAA, Historical Climatolou Series 6-2,193 pp. Saffir, H.S., 1977: Design and Construction Requirements for Hurricane Resistant Construction, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, ProrintNumbe 2830,20pp. Sheets, R.C., 1984: The National Weather Service Hurricane Probability Program, NOAA, Technical Report NWS-37, 70 pp. Simpson, R.H., and M.B. Lawrence, 1971: Atlantic Hurricane Frequencies Along the U.S. Coastline, NOAA, Technical Memorandum NWS-SR-58,14 pp. Simpson, R.H., 1971: A Proposed Scale for Ranldng Hurricanes by Intensity, Minutes of the Eighth NOAA, NWS, Hurricane Conference, Miami, Fla. U.S. Weather Bureau: Montbjy Weather Revi 1872-1970 (National Weather Service 1971-1973, and American Meteorological Society 1974-1994). U.S. Weather Bureau: Climatological Data and Storm D various volumes, various periods, National and State Summaries (National Weather Service 1971-1994). 30 NWS NBC 21 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1983. Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC - January 1984 NWS NHC 22 A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses. Brian R. Jarvinen, Charles J. Neumann, and Mary A. S. Davis - March 1984 NWS NBC 23 Frequency and Motion of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Congyuan Xue and Charles J. Neumann - May 1984 (PB85106466) NWS NHC 24 Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations - Texas to Maine - June 1984 (PB85111383)[Revised as NWS NHC 46] NWS NBC 25 A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the Eastern and Central North Pacific Basins, 1949-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses - September 1984 (PB85110054) NWS NBC 26 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1994. Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case, NHC - February 1985 NWS NHC 27 A Storm Surge Atlas for Corpus Christi, Texas. Brian R. Jarvinen, A. Barry Damiano, and Gloria J. D. Lockett - August 1985 NWS NHC 29 A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion (WPCLPR). Yiming Xu and Charles 1. Neumann, November 1985 NWS NHC 29 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1985. Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case, NBC - March 1986 NWS NHC 30 A Storm Surge Adas for the Sabine Lake (Texas/Louisiana) Area. Victor Wiggert and Brian Jarvinen - April 1986 NWS NHC 31 The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts)(Rev. of NOAA TM 18). Paul J. Hebert, WSFO Miami; Glenn Taylor and Robert A. Case, NHC - Revised February 1995 by P. J. Hebert, J. D. Jarrell, and M. Mayfield NWS NHC 32 Comparison of Observed Versus SLOSH Model Computed Storm Surge Hydrographs Along the Delaware and New Jersey Shorelines for Hurricane Gloria, September 1985. Brian Jaryinen, NHC; Jeff Gebert, Army COE, Philadelphia, PA - September 1986 NWS NHC 33 Hurricane Tracking Using an Envelope Approach - Impacts Upon Forecasts. Robert C. Sheets - October 1986 NWS NHC 34 An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change - Robert T. Merrill - February 1987 NWS NHC 35 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1986 - Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case - March 1987 NWS NHC 36 Observed Versus Slosh Model Storm Surge for Connecticut, New York and Upper New Jersey in Hurricane Gloria, September 1985 - Brian Jarvinen and Jeff Gebert - August 1987 N`WS-NHC 37 Observed Versus Slosh Model Storm Surge for North Carolina in Hurricane Gloria, September 1985 - Brian Jarvinen and Allan McDuffie - August 1987 NWS NHC 38 The National Hurricane Center Risk Analysis Program (HURISK) - Charles J. Neumann - November 1987 NWS NBC 39 Satellite Interpretation Messages - A Users' Guide - James S. Lynch - May 1987 NWS NHC 40 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1987. Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case - March 1988 NWS NHC 41 The National Hurricane Center NHC83 Model - Charles J. Neumann - May 1988 NWS NHC 42 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1988 NWS NHC 43 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones 1988 NWS NHC 44 A Revised National Hurricane Center NHC83 Model (NHC90) - Charles J. Neumann (Science Applications International Corporation) and Colin J. McAdie (NHC) - November 1991 KWS NHC 45 Hurricane Gilbert (1988) In Review and Perspective - Edward N. Rappaport and Colin J. McAdie - November 1991 KWS NHC 46 Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations from Texas to Maine - Jerry D. Jarrell, Paul J. Hebert, and Max Mayfield - August 199i NWS NHC 47 The Deadliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1492-1994 - Edward N. Rappaport and Jos6 Femindez-Partagis - January 1995 NWS TPC I The Deadliest and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts)(Revision of NWS NHC-31) - Paul J. Hebert, Jerry D. 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