[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]





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                  NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS T4qP.C-1                                          qs







                  THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE

                  UNITED STATES HURRICANES OF TI6qUS CENTURY


                  (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS)



                  Updated February 1996



                  Prepared by:

                  Paul J. Hebert, NWSFO Miami
                  Jerry D. Jarrell, TPC Miami
                  Max Mayfield, TPC Miami




                  Tropical Prediction Center
                  National Hurricane Center
                  Miami, Florida
                  February 1996






         Q4qC995
          U673                      NATIONAL OCEANIC AND               National Weather
          1996        56q)aa           AT04qM-12q08qSP04qHE4qR0qIC ADMINISTRATION         Service
 




                                                                              NOAA TECEMCAL MEMORANDA


                                                                National Weather Service, Tropical Prediction Center Subseries

                   The National Weather Service Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) subseries provides an informal medium for the documentation and quick dissemination ofresults
                   not appropriate, or not yet ready, for formal publication. The series is used to report on work in progress, to describe technical procedures and practices, or
                   to relate progress to a limited audience and hence will not be widely distributed.

                   Technical Memoranda originated at the Tropical Prediction Center prior to the establishment of this series are listed below. They were published as ESSA
                   Technical Memoranda, WBTM or NOAA Technical Memoranda, NWS SR or NWS NHC.

                   Beginning with WBTM SR 38, the papers are available from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road,
                   Springfield, VA, 22151 (Phone: 703-487-4650). Order by accession number shown in parenthesis at end of each entry.

                                                                                   ESSA Technical Memoranda


                   SRTM 28         The Weather Distribution with Upper Tropospheric Cold Lows in the Tropics. Neil L. Frank - September 1966
                   WBTM SR 38      Florida Hurricanes. Gordon E. Dunn and Staff NHC - November 1967 (PB 182 220)
                   WBTM SR 42      Memorable Hurricanes of the United States Since 1873. Arnold L. Sugg and Robert L. Carrodus - January 1969 (PB 182 228)
                   WBTM SR 44      Climatology of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by Two and One-Half Degree Latirade-Longitude Boxes. John R. Hope and Charles J. Neumann -
                                   February 1969 (PB 183 308)
                   WBTM SR 45      On the Maximum Sustained Winds Occurring in Atlantic Hurricanes. Charles Holliday - May 1969 (PB 184 609)
                   WBTM SR 46      Hemispheric Circulation and Anomaly Patterns Observed When Tropical Storms Reach Hurricane Intensity. Paul J. Hebert, NHC, and Banner
                                   I. Miller, NHRL - May 1969 (P13 184 610)
                   WBTM SR 47      Disturbances in the Tropical and Equatorial Atlantic. R. H. Simpson - June 1969 (PB 184 740)
                   WBTM SR 49      A Mean Storm Surge Profile. Arnold L. Sugg - December 1%9 (PB 188 422)
                   WBTM SR 50      A Reassessment of the Hurricane Prediction Problem. Robert H. Simpson - February 1970 (PB 189 846)
                   WBTM SR 51      The Satellite Applications Section of the National Hurricane Center. R. H. Simpson and D. C.Gaby - September 1970 (COM 7100005)

                                                                               NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS


                   NWS SR 53       The Decision Process in Hurricane Forecasting. R. H. Simpson - January 1971 (COM 71-00336)
                   NWS SR 55       Digitized Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks. John R. Hope and Charles J. Neumann - February 1971 (COM 7100984)
                   NWS SR 56       Memorable Hurricanes of the United States Since 1873. Arnold Sugg, Leonard G. Pardue and Robert L. Carrodus - April 1971 (COM 71
                                   00610)
                   NWS SR 58       Atlantic Hurricane Frequencies Along the U.S. Coastline. R. H. Simpson and Miles B. Lawrence - June 1971 (COM 7100796)
                   NWS SR 62       An Alternate to the HURRAN (Hurricane Analog) Tropical Cyclone Forecast System. Charles J. Neumann - January 1972 (COM 72 10351)
                   NWS SR 63       A Statistical Method of Combining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone Prediction Systems. Charles J. Neumann, John R. Hope and
                                   Banner 1. Miller - May 1972 (COM 72 10553)
                   NWS SR 69       Statistical-Dynamical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion. Charles J. Neumann and Miles B. Lawrence - April 1973 (COM 73 10728)
                   NWSSR71         A Decision Procedure for Application in Predicting the Landfall of Hurricanes. R. H. Simpson and Brian R. Jarvinen - August 1973 (COM
                                   73-11663/AS)
                   NWS SR 72       Objective Analysis of the Sea Surface Temperature. Brian R. Jarvinen - August 1973 (COM 73-11643)
                   NWS SR 81       The Effect of Initial Data Uncertainties on the Performance of Statistical Tropical Cyclone Prediction Models. Charles J. Neumann - March
                                   1975 (COM 75-10483/AS)
                   NWS SR 82       A Statistical Study of Tropical Cyclone Positioning Errors with Economic Applications. Charles 1. Neumann - March 1972 (COM 75-11362/AS)
                   NWS SR 83       A Satellite Classification Technique for Subtropical Cyclones. Paul J. Hebert and Kenneth 0. Poteat - July 1975 (COM 75-11220/AS)

                   NWSNHCl         Annual Data and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1974. John R. Hope and Staff, NHC - January 1976 (PB285261/AS)
                   NWS NHC 2       Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1975. Paul J. Hebert and Staff@ NHC - January 1977 (PB285263/AS)
                   NWSNHC3         Intensification Criteria for Tropical Depressions in the Western North Atlantic. Paul J. Hebert - April 1977 (PB285415/AS)
                   NWSNHC4         Annual Data and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1976. Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC - May 1977 (PB285262/AS)
                   NWSNHC5         Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks by 5-, 10-, 15-, and 30-Day Periods. Brian J. Jarvinen and Charles J. Neumann - May 1978 (PB2840091AS)
                   NWSNHC6         A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1977; Contents, Limitations, and. Uses. Brian R. Jarvinen and Eduardo L.
                                   Caso - June 1978 (PB285504/AS)
                   NWSNHC7         The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of the Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts). Paul
                                   J. Hebert and Glenn Taylor - August 1978 (PB286753/AS)
                   NWSNHC8         Annual Data and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1977. Miles B. Lawrence, Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC - March 1979
                                   (PB295702)
                   NWSNHC9         Annual Dam and Verification Tabulation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1978. Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC - Apra 1979 (PB296323)
                   NWS NHC 10      Statistical Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity for the North Atlantic Basin. Brian R. Jarvinen and Charles J. Neumann - April 1979
                                   (PB297185)
                   NWSNHC       11 A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion. Charles J. Neumann - April 1979
                                   (PB297141/AS)
                   NWSNHC       12 Modification of NMC Analyses and Prognoses for Use in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Prediction Models. Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. - May 1979
                                   (PB297190)
                   NWSNHC       13 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1979. Paul 1. Hebert and Staff, NHC - June 1980
                   NWSNHC       14 A Statistical Tropical Cyclone Motion Forecasting System for the Gulf of Mexico. Robert T. Merrill - August 1980
                   NWSNHC       15 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1980. Glenn Taylor and Staff, NHC -June 1981
                   NWSNHC       16 A Compilation of Eastern and Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data. Gail M. Brown and Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. - August 1982
                                   (PB83115444)
                   NWSNHC       17 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1981. Staff, NHC - November 1982
                   NWSNHC       18 The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts), Paul
                                   J. Hebert and Glenn Taylor, NHC - January 1983 (PB83-163527)(Revised as NWS NHC 31)
                   NWSNHC       19 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1982. Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC - February 1983 (PB83184077)
                   NWS NHC 20      Ile MissfHit Ratio - An Estimate of Reliability for Tropical Cyclone Track Predictions, Preston W. Leftwich, Jr. - April 1983

















                  NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-1










                  THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE

                  UNITED STATES HURRICANES OF TIES CENTURY


                  (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS)




                  Updated February 1996



                  Prepared by:
                  Paul J. Hebert, NWSFO Miami                              ftoperty of CSC Library
                  Jerry D. Jarrell, TPC Miami
                  Max Mayfield, TPC Miami




                  Tropical Prediction Center            US Department of commerce
                  National Hurricane Center             NOAA Coastal Services center Library
                  Miami, Florida                        2234 South Hobson Avenue
                  February 1996                         Charleston, SC 29405-2413




     UNrrED STATES                      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service
     DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE             James Baker                                    Elbert W. Friday
     Ronald H. Brown, Secretary         Under Secretary and Administrator              Assistant Administrator
                                                                                                             @W. M-11


                                                                                                             71111V









                                                           PREFACE



                   This version of the Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This
              Century is an update through the 1995 hurricane season of Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield (1995).
              This update is largely to include the 1995 season and adds information on hurricanes affecting Puerto
              Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands.

              Information for Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, given in Table 14, was provided by
              Hans Rosendal and Raphael Mojica of the Weather Service Forecast Offices in Honolulu and San
              Juan, respectively.

              During 1995 the former National Meteorological Center, which included the National Hurricane
              Center, was re-organized into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Under
              NCEP, the National Hurricane Center became the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) to more
              accurately reflect the majority of its operational products being non-hurricane related, routine
              tropical forecasts. The name "National Hurricane Center" was retained to apply to the hurricane
              operations desk at TPC. We will follow the convention of using "NHC" to refer to the previous
              National Hurricane Center, "TPC" to refer to the current center and 117?C/NHC" to refer to the
              hurricane operations desk of TPC.










                                                             TT







                                   THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE
                                    UNITED STATES HURRICANES OF THIS CENTURY
                             (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS)
                                                                  by
                                    Paul J. Hebert, NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office
                                   Jerry D. Jarrell & Max Mayfield, Tropical Prediction Center
                                                     National Weather Service
                                                          Miami, Florida.


                                                           ABSTRACT


               Lists of the thirty United States deadliest and costliest land falling hurricanes during this century
               have been compiled from all data sources available at the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC).
               Damages are given both before and after adjustment for inflation. In addition, all major' hurricanes
               which have made landfall in the United States during this century are listed. Some additional
               statistics on United States hurricanes of this and previous centuries and tropical cyclones in general
               are also presented.


                                                        1. INTRODUCTION


               Numerous requests are received at the Tropical Prediction Center for statistical information on
               deaths, damages, and severity of hurricanes which have affected the United States. Various
               reference materials give different estimates of these statistics so that decisions have to be constantly
               made as to which information should be given out by TPC as "official" from the National Hurricane
               Information Center (another function of TPC). Requests to other Weather Service offices posed the
               same dilemma. These lists are published in the hope of presenting a single source of the best
               currently available estimates of deaths, damages, and intensity of major U.S. hurricanes which have
               made landfall in this century. In some instances, data in these lists present revised estimates. Such
               estimates, for individual hurricanes, are based on more complete information received after earlier
               published values, including the previous versions of this technical memorandum. There are other
               frequently asked questions about hurricanes. What is the average number of hurricanes per year?
               What year(s) had the most and least hurricanes? What hurricane had the longest life? When did the
               earliest and latest hurricane occur? What was the most intense Atlantic hurricane? What was the
               largest number of hurricanes in existence on the same day? When was the last time a major
               hurricane or any hurricane hit a given community directly'? Answers to these and several other
               questions are provided in Section 3.






                 A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Table 1),
               and is comparable to a Great Hurricane in other publications.
               2 A direct hit means experiencing the core of strong winds and high tides of a hurricane.









                                                    Table 1. Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale Ranges.



                                                                Central
                                   Scale Number                Pressure               Winds          Surge
                                     (Category)       (Millibars)     (inches)         (Mph)         (Feet)       Damage

                                          1             >979          >28.91           74-95        4 to 5        Minimal


                                          2           965-979      28.50-28.91        96-110        6 to 8       Moderate


                                          3           945-964      27.91-28.47       111-130       9 to 12       Extensive


                                          4           920-944      27.17-27.88       131-155      13 to 18        Extreme


                                          5            < 920          < 27.17         > 155         > 18       Catastrophic








                                                           2. CRITERIA


               The statistics in most of the tables and figures in this publication depend directly on the criteria used
               in preparing another study, Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations-Texas to
               Maine (Jarrell, HebeM and Mayfield, 1992). The       - '    - - - ose of that study was to demonstrate,
               county by county, the low hurricane experience level of a large majority of the population. Statistics
               show that the largest loss of life and, for the most part, property occur in locations experiencing the
               core of a category 3 or higher hurricane. Unless a given population has experienced this core, or
               direct hit with its very strong winds and high tides, it would defeat the primary purpose of the study
               on hurricane experience levels to so categorize it.

               Although the Saffir/Simpson category is defined by pressure, wind, and storm surge, in practice it
               is the maximum wind speed that determines the category. Operationally, the central pressure is used
               to make a first estimate of the wind. Thereafter, available surface wind reports and aircraft
               reconnaissance flight level winds (which must be reduced to the surface) are used to anchor the wind
               estimate. In post-analysis, the central pressure ranges of hurricanes on the Saffir/Simpson scale will
               usually agree fairly well with the wind ranges in that category.

               On the other hand, the surge is strongly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf (shoaling
               factor). This can change the height of the surge -by a factor of two for a given central pressure and/or
               maximum wind.


               Heavy rainfall associated with a hurricane is riot one of the criteria for categorizing it.

               The aubjective determination of which category number to assign to a hurricane, as well as its direct
               or indirect effect, is made on a com1y by cgu= basis with the intent of the study on hurricane
               experience levels foremost in mind.

               As with the assignment of scale numbers, a certain amount of subjectivity was inescapable at times
               in determining which counties received direct or indirect hits during the various hurricane situations.
               However, certain arbitrary guidelines for these classifications as used in Hurricane Experience
               Levels, etc., are indicated below:

                       Direct Hi - When the innermost core region or "eye" moved over a county, it was counted
                       as a direct hit. Using "R!' as the radius of maximum winds in a hurricane (the distance in
                       miles from the storm's center to the circle of maximurn winds around the center), all or parts
                       of counties falling within approximately 2R to the right and R to the left of a stonn!s landfall
                       point were considered to have received a direct hit. (This assumes an observer at sea looking
                       toward the shore. If there was no landfall, the closest point of approach was used in place
                       of the landfall point). On the average, this direct hit zone extended about 50 miles along the
                       coastline (R= 15 miles). Of course, some hurricanes were smaller than this and some,
                       particularly at higher latitudes, were much larger. Cases were judged individually, and many
                       borderline situations had to be resolved.





                                                                    3







                         Indirect Hit - These were based primarily on a hurricane's strength and size, and on the
                         configuration of the individual county coastline. Here again, much subjectivity was
                         necessary in many cases which were complicated by storm paths and geography. Generally,
                         those areas on either side of the direct hit zone which received at least wind gusts of
                         hurricane force and/or tides of 4 to 5 feet or more above normal were considered to have had
                         an indirect hit.


                 It is realized that the effect of an indirect hit by a large category 4 hurricane might be greater than
                 that of a direct hit by a small category 1 affecting the same county. However, trying to account for
                 these differences would hopelessly complicate the use of this system.

                 A study by Simpson and Lawrence (197 1) gives climatological probabilities of the total number of
                 storms and hurricanes to affect the U.S. coastline by fifty-mile wide coastal segments, as well as only
                 hurricanes, and major (or great) hurricanes. While this 50 miles approximates that of the "core" used
                 for direct hits, there are some differences. In the Simpson and Lawrence study, a storm/hurricane/
                 great hurricane was counted in the segment where it crossed the coast plus the next segment to the
                 riL,ht. As indicated earlier, the "core" used in Jarrell, Hebert, and Mayfield (1992) can be smaller
                 or larger thari 50 miles, and could also affect one of the segments in Simpson and Lawrence to the
                 left of a coastline crossing which that study would not count.

                 The foregoing two studies and their associated criteria are climatological with their primary purpose
                 being for use in assessing risk based on pj= experience. On the other hand, the National Weather
                 Service's Hurricane Probability Program has as its purpose the assessment of risk based on a present
                 hurricane threat to the United States coastline. It does this by arbitrarily defining a "strike" as the
                 center of a hurricane moving through a zone within approximately 50 nautical mile's to the right or
                 75 nautical miles to the left of the site of interest (Sheets, 1984). The asymmetry is to allow for the
                 strongest winds in a hurricane frequently being finther to the right of the center than the left - a
                 consideration reflected also in the earlier studies discussed. This 125 nautical mile diameter circle
                 approximates the region of hurricane force winds for a "typical" hurricane. It will usually be larger
                 than the "core", and is fixed, like the segments in Simpson and Lawrence. HURRICANE STRIKE
                 PROBABILITIES HAVE NO RELATION TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. Users of these
                 probabilities must take the intensity and expected arrival time of tropical storm and hurricane force
                 winds into account when assessing risk. The reader is urged to refer to The National Weather
                 Service Hurricane Probability Program (Sheets, 1984) for a more thorough explanation of forecast
                 probabilities.

                 Statistics on total storm/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean (which includes the Gulf of
                 Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) can be found in Neumann, et al. (1993). A detailed breakdown of
                 hurricanes by category which have affected coastal counties of the Gulf of Mexico and North
                 Atlantic Ocean both directly and indirectly,can be found in Jarrell, Hebert, and Mayfield (1992),
                 which has been updated where necessary for this technical memorandum. The best source of how
                 a hurricane affected individual localities or states can be found in the annual articles on the hurricane
                 season in the Monthly Weather Review (1995 for example) and Storm Dat (1995forexample).




                                                                    4









                                                           3. DISCUSSION
                                                                 Part I


                (1)     What have been the deadliest hurricanes of this century in the United States? Table 2
                lists the 30 deadliest hurricanes to strike the mainland U.S. in this century. Although technically
                incorrect we have included 1900 in "this century". Three hurricanes prior to 1900, a tropical storm
                which affected southern California in 1939 and deadliest hurricanes affecting Puerto Rico and the
                Virgin Islands are listed as an addendum because of their large death tolls.

                (2)     What have been the costliest hurricanes of this century in the United States? Table 3
                lists the 30 costliest hurricanes (including 4 tropical storms) to strike the mainland U.S. in this
                century. Figures are not adjusted for inflation. Table 3a re-orders some of these plus several other
                hurricanes (and I tropical storm) after adjusting to 1994 dollars'. Hawaiian, eastern Pacific, Puerto
                Rican and Virgin Island tropical cyclones are listed as addenda to Tables 3 and 3a.

                (3)     What have been the most intense hurricanes to strike the United States during this
                century? Table 4 lists the 63 major hurricanes which have struck the mainland U.S. during this
                century. Hurricanes are ordered by the lowest estimated central pressure and/or highest category to
                affect the United States at time of landfall. Hawaiian, Puerto Rican and Virgin Island hurricanes are
                listed as an addenda to Table 4. Many of the island hurricanes are close passes, as opposed to
                landfalls as defined above.


                        A look at the lists of deadliest and costliest hurricanes of this century reveals several striking
                facts: (1) The twelve deadliest hurricanes were all the equivalent of a category 4 or higher, if the
                excessive forward speed is considered as raising the category of a hurricane by one. (2) Large death
                totals were primarily a result of the 15 to 20 feet or more rise of the ocean (storm surge) associated
                with many of these major hurricanes. All but five of the thirty deadliest hurricanes were major
                hurricanes. Three of these five were the inland flood-producing hurricanes Agnes and Diane and
                Tropical Storm Alberto. (3) A large portion of the damage in three of the thirteen costliest tropical
                cyclones (Table 3) resulted from inland flooding caused by torrential rainfall in mountainous areas.
                (4) Three-fifffis of the deadliest hurricanes were the equivalent of a category four or higher, but only
                one-third of the costliest hurricanes (Table 3) met this criterion. (5) Only one of the deadliest
                hurricanes (plus one deadly tropical storm) have occurred during the past twenty five years in
                contrast to three-fifths of the costliest hurricanes (this drops to two-fifffis after adjustment for
                inflation).

                Addenda to tables 2, 3 and 4 include some noteworthy storms from pre- 1900, the U.S. Pacific coast
                and the Hawaiian islands, as well as the U. S. Caribbean Islands. The rank is where they would fall
                if each alone were ranked within the main table.



                  Adjusted to 1994 dollars on basis of U.S. Departinent of Commerce Implicit Price Deflator for
                Construction.




                                                                    5








                                  Table, 2. The deadliest mainland United States hurricanes 1900-1995. (The top 30 are listed).



                                              RANK HURRICANE                          YEAR CATEGORY DEATHS
                                                   1 TX (Galveston)                   1900         4            8000
                                                   2 FL (SE/Lake Okeechobee)          1928         4            1836
                                                   3 FL (Keys)/S TX                   1919         4             600
                                                   4 New England                      1938         3             600
                                                   5 FL (Keys)                        1935         5             408
                                                   6 AUDREY (SW LA/N TX)              1957         4             390
                                                   7 NE U.S.                          1944         3             3900
                                                   8 LA (Grand Isle)                  1909         4             350
                                                   9 LA (New Orleans)                 1915         4             275
                                                   10 TX (Galveston)                  1915         4             275
                                                   11 CAMILLE (MS/SE LAIVA)           1969         5             256
                                                   12 FL (Miami)/MS/AUPensacola       1926         4             243
                                                   13 DIANE (NE U.S.)                 1955         1             184
                                                   14 SE FL                           1906         2             164
                                                   15 MS/AUPensacola                  1906         3             134
                                                   16 AGNES (FUNE U.S.)               1972         1             122
                                                   17 HAZEL (SC/NC)                   1954         4              95
                                                   18 BETSY (SE FUSE LA)              1965         3              75
                                                   19. CAROL (NE U.S.)                1954         3
                                                   20 SE FUSE LA/MS                   1947         4              51
                                                   21 DONNA (FUEastem U.S.)           1960         4              50
                                                   22 GA/SC/NC                        1940         2              50
                                                   23 CARLA (N & Central TX)          1961         4              46
                                                   24 TX (Velasco)                    1909         3              41
                                                   25 TX (Freeport)                   1932         4              40
                                                   26 S TX                            1933         3              40
                                                   27 HILDA (Central LA)              1964         3              38
                                                   28 SW LA                           1918         3              34
                                                   29 SW FL                           1910         3              30
                                                   30 ALBERTO (NW FL,GA,AL)           1994      TS &             -30

                                             ADDENDUM (Pre-1900 or Not AtlanticGulf Coast)
                                                   2 LA                               1893    Unk               2000
                                                   2-3 SC/GA                          1893    Unk          1000-2000
                                                   3 GAISC                            1881    Unk                700
                                                   9 Puerto Rico                      1928         4             312
                                                   13 USVI, Puerto Rico               1932         2             225
                                                   17 Donna (St. Thomas, VI)          1960         4             107
                                                   24 Southern California             1939     TS &               45
                                                   24 Eloise(Puerto Rico)             1975     TS &               44

                                                     May actually have been as high as 10,000 to 12,000
                                                     Moving more than 30 miles per hour
                                                     Over 500 lost on ships at sea; 600-900 estimated deaths.
                                                     Some 344 of these lost on ships at sea.
                                                   & Only of Tropical Storm intensity.
                                                   Unk Intensity not sufficiently known to establish category


                                                                                  6








                        Table 3. The costliest mainland United States hurricanes, 1900-1995, (The top 30 are listed).


                                 RANK    HURRICANE                       YEAR   CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)
                                   I     ANDREW (SE FNE LA)              1992         4         $26,500,000,000
                                   2     HUGO (SC)                       1989         4           7,000,000,000
                                   3     OPAL (NW FUAL)                  1995         3           3,000,000,000
                                   4     FREDERIC (AUMS)                 1979         3           2,300,000,000
                                   5     AGNES (FUNE U.S.)               1972         1           2,100,000,000
                                   6     ALICIA (N TX)                   1983         3           2,000,000,000
                                   7     BOB (NC, NE U.S)                1991         2           1,500,000,000
                                   7     JUAN (LA)                       1985         1           1,500,000,000
                                   9     CAMILLE (MS/SE LAIVA)           1969         5           1,420,700,000
                                   10    BETSY (SE FUSE LA)              1965         3           1,420,500,000
                                   11    ELENA (MS/AUNW FL)              1985         3           1,250,000,000
                                   12    GLORIA (Eastern U.S.)           1985         3             900,000,000
                                   13    DIANE (NE U.S.)                 1955         1             831,700,000
                                   14    ALLISON (N TX)                  1989      TS               500,000,000
                                   14    ALBERTO (NW FL,GA,AL)           1994      TS               500,000,000
                                   16    ELOISE (NW FL)                  1975         3             490,000,000
                                   17    CAROL (NE U.S.)                 1954         3             461,000,000
                                   18    CELIA (S TX)                    1970         3             453,000,000
                                   19    CARLA (N & Central TX)          1961         4             408,000,000
                                   20    CLAUDETTE (N TX)                1979      TS               400,000,000
                                   20    GORDON (S & Cent FL,NC)         1994      TS               400,000,000
                                   22    DONNA (FUEastern U.S.)          1960         4             387,000,000
                                   23    DAVID (FUEastern U.S.)          1979         2             320,000,000
                                   24    New England                     1938         3             306,000,000
                                   25    KATE (FL Keys/NW FL)            1985         2             300,000,000
                                   25    ALLEN (S TX)                    1980         3             300,000,000
                                   27    HAZEL (SC/NC)                   1954         4             281,000,000
                                   28    DORA (NE FL)                    1964         2             250,000,000
                                   29    BEULAH (S TX)                   1967         3             200,000,000
                                   30    AUDREY (SW LAIN TX)             1957         4             150,000,000


                               ADDENDUM
                                   6     INIKI (Kauai, HI)               1992     Unk.            1,800,000,000
                                   7     MARILYN (USVI, PR)              1995         2           1,500,000,000
                                   12    HUGO (USVI, PR)                 1989         4           1,000,000,000
                                   22    OLIVIA (CA)                     1982     T.D. &            325,000,000
                                   23    IWA (Kauai, HI)                 1982     Unk.              312,000,000
                                   24    NORMAN (CA)                     1978     T.D. &            300,000,000
                                   29    KATHLEEN (CA & AZ)              1976     T.D.              160,000,000
                                Notes:
                                         Moving more than 30 miles per hour.
                                         Only of Tropical Storm intensity.
                                         Current estimate subject to change, probably too high.
                                   &     Only a Tropical Depression










                                           Table 3a. The costliest mainland United States hurricanes, 1900-1995.
                                                   (The top 30 are listed when adjusted@ to 1994 dollars.)



                                      RANK HURRICANE                            YEAR Category        Damage (U.S.)'
                                           I ANDREW (SE FUSE LA)                1992       4          28,620,000,000
                                           2 HUGO (SC)                          1989       4           7,910,000,000
                                           3 AGNES (FL/NE U.S.)                 1972       1           6,930,000,000
                                           4 BETSY (SE FUSE LA)                 1965       3           6,875,220,000
                                           5 CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA)              1969       5           5,640,179,000
                                           6 DIANE (NE U.S.)                    1955       1           4,516,131,000
                                           7 FREDERIC (AL/MS)                   1979       3           3,933,000,000
                                           8 New England                        1938       3           3,864,780,000
                                           9 OPAL (NW FUAQ                      1995       3           2,880,000,000
                                           10 ALICIA (N TX)                     1983       3           2,760,000,000
                                           11 CAROL (NE U.S.)                   1954       3           2,649,330,000
                                           12 CARLA (N & Central TX)            1961       4           2,072,640,000
                                           13 DONNA(FL/Eastern U.S.)            1960       4           1,962,090,000
                                           14 JUAN (LA)                         1985       1           1,950,000,000
                                           15 CELIA (S TX)                      1970       3           1,694,220,000
                                           16 BOB (NC, NE U.S)                  1991       2           1,635,000,000
                                           .17 ELENA (MS/AL/NW FL)              1985       3           1,625,000,000
                                           18 HAZEL (SC/NC)                     1954       4           1,553,930,000
                                           19 FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola        1926       4           1,414,560,000
                                           20 N TX (Galveston)                  1915       4           1,264,800,000
                                           21 DORA (NE FL)                      1964       2           1,245,000,000
                                           22 ELOISE (NW FL)                    1975       3           1,190,700,000
                                           23 GLORIA (Eastern U.S.)             1985       3           1,170,000,000
                                           24 NE U.S.                           1944       3            994,000,000    +
                                           25 BEULAH (S TX)                     1967       3            900,000,000
                                           26 N TX (Galveston)                  1900       4            759,909,000
                                           27 SE FUSE LA/MS                     1947       4            756,800,000
                                           28 AUDREY (SW LAIN TX)               1957       4            748,500,000
                                           29 CLAUDETTE(N TX)                   1979    T.S.            684,000,000
                                           30 CLEO (SE FL)                      1964       2            639,930,000


                                     ADDENDUM
                                           15 INIKI (Kauai, HIT                 1992   Unk.            1,944,000,000
                                           19 MARILYN (USVI,E. PR)              1995       2           1,440,000,000
                                           24 HUGO (USVI, PR)                   1989       4           1,130,000,000
                                           24 SAN FELIPE (PR)                   1928       4           1,071,000,000
                                       notes
                                             Adjusted to 1994 dollars on basis of U.S. DOC Implicit Price Deflator
                                             for Construction. 1995 damages adjusted downward.
                                             Moving more than 36 miles per hour
                                             Current estimate subject to change, probably too high.
                                             Damage estimate was considered too high in 1915 reference.
                                           + Probably higher
                                           2 Using 1915 cost adjustment base - none available prior to 1915
                                             Only of Tropical Storm intensity, included because of high damage.



                                                                                8










                                                                                                                    Table 4. The most Intense mainland United States hurricanes, 1900-1995.


                                                                                                                 CATEGORY MINIMUM PRESSURE                                                                                                                 CATEGORY MINIMUM PRESSURE
                                           RANK HURRICANE                                           YEAR          (at landfall) Millibars                Inches                         RANK HURRICANE                                      YEAR             (at landfall) Millibars                Inches
                                                 I   FL (Keys)                                      1935               5                  892            26.35
                                                                                                                                                                                           33     BEULAH (S TX)                             1967                  3                  950            28.05
                                                 2   CAMILLE (MS/SE LAIVA)                          1969               5                  909            26.84                             33     HILDA (Central LA)                        1964                  3                  950            28.05
                                                     ANDREW (SE FUSE LA)                            1992               4                  922            27.23
                                                 3                                                                                                                        zg               33     GRACIE (SC)                               1959                  3                  950            28.05
                                                 4   FL (Keys)/S TX                                 1919               4                  927            27.37                             33     TX (Central)                              1942                  3                  950            28.05
                                                 5   FL (Lake Okeechobee)                           11928              4                  929            27.43            g';'V            37     SE FL                                     1945                  3                  951            28.08
                                                                                                                                                                          I,N
                                                 6   DONNA (FUEastem U.S.)                          1960               4                  930            27.46                             38     FL (Tampa Bay)                            1921                  3                  952            28.11
                                                 7   TX (Galveston)                                 1900               4                  931            27.49
                                                                                                                                                                                           38     CARMEN (Central LA)                       1974                  3                  952            28.11
                                                 7   LA (Grand Isle)                                1909               4                  931            27.49                             40     EDNA (New England)                        1954                  3                  954            28.17
                                                 7   LA (New Orleans)                               1915               4                  931            27.49                             40     SE FL                                     1949                  3                  954            28.17
                                                                                                                                                                                           42     ELOISE (NW FL)                            1975                  3                  955            28.20
                                                 7   CARLA (N & Central TX)                         1961               4                  931            27.49
                                                 11  HUGO (SC)                                      1989               4                  934            27.58                             42     KING (SE FL)                              1950                  3                  955            28.20
                                                 12  FL (Miami)/MS/AUPensacola                      1926               4                  935            27.61
                                                                                                                                                                                           42     Central LA                                1926                  3                  955            28.20
                                                 13  HAZEL (SCfNC)                                  1954               4                  938            27.70            'V@5             42     SW LA                                     1918                  3                  955            28.20
                                                 14  SE FUSE LAIMS                                  1947               4                  940            27.76                             42     SW FL                                     1910                  3                  955            28.20
                                                 15  N TX                                           1932               4                  941            27.79                             47     NC                                        1933                  3                  957            28.26
                                                 16  GLORIA (Eastern U.S.)                          1985               3                  942            27.82                             47     FL (Keys)                                 1909                  3                  957            28.26
                                                 16  OPAL (NW FUAL)                                 1995               3 &                942            27.82                             49     EASY (NW FL)                              1950                  3                  958            28.29
                                                 18  AUDREY (SW LAIN TX)                            1957               4                  945            27.91                             49     N TX                                      1941                  3                  958            28.29
                                                 18  TX (Galveston)                                 1915               4                  945            27.91
                                                                                                                                                                                           49     NWFL                                      1917                  3                  958            28.29
                                                                                                                                                                                -R
                                                 18  CELIA (S TX)                                   1970               3                  945            27.91                             49     N TX                                      1909                  3                  958            28.29
                                                 18  ALLEN (S TX)                                   1980               3                  945            27.91                             49     MS/AL                                     1906                  3                  958            28.29
                                                                                                                                                                                @fj        54     ELENA (MSIAUNW FL)                        1985                  3                  959            28.32
                                                 22  New England                                    1938               3                  946            27.94
                                                 22  FREDERIC (AUMS)                                1979               3                  946            27.94                             55     CAROL (NE U.S.)                           1954                  3                  960            28.35
                                                 24  NE U.S.                                        1944               3                  947            27.97            Is.              55     IONE (NC)                                 1955                  3                  960            28.35
                                                 24  SC/NC                                          1906               3                  947            27.97
                                                                                                                                                                          A                55     EMILY (NC)                                1993                  3                  960            28.35
                                                 26  BETSY (SE FUSE LA)                             1965               3                  948            27.99                  "M.        58     ALICIA (N TX)                             1983                  3                  962            28.41
                                                 26  SE FUNW FL                                     1929               3                  948            27.99                             58     CONNIE (NCNA)                             1955                  3                  962            28.41
                                                 26  SE FL                                          1933               3                  948            27.99            1k,              58     SW FUNE FL                                1944                  3                  962            28.41
                                                 26  S TX                                           1916               3                  948            27.99                             58     Central LA                                1934                  3                  962            28.41
                                                 26  MS/AL                                          1916               3                  948            27.99            2,04             62     SW FUSE FL                                1948                  3                  963            28.44
                                                 31  DIANA (NC)                                     1984               3+                 949            28.02
                                                                                                                                                                                rA         63     NW F
                                                                                                                                                                                                            L                               1936                  3                  964            @8.47
                                                 31  S TX                                           1933               3                  949            28.02
                                                                                                                                                                                if
                                                     ADDENDUM
                                                 4   DAVID (S of PR)                                1979               4                  924            27,29
                                                 7   San Felipe (PR)                                1928               4                  931            27.49            'MIA          Notes
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Moving
                                                 14  HUGO (USVI & PR)                               1989               4                  940            27.76                                               more than 30 miles per hour.
                                                 32  INIKI (KAUAI, HI)                              1992          LINK                    950            27.91                                    Highest category justified by winds.
                                                                                                                                                                          kl,q.k
                                                 41  DOT (KAUAI, HI)                                1959          UNK                     955            28.11            P"N" N                  Classified 4 because of estimated winds.
                                                 49  DONNA (St.Thomas, PR)                          1960               4                  958            28.29,                                   Cape Fear, NC area only; was a category 2 at final landfall.
                                                 62  IWA (KAUAI, HI)                                1982          LINK                    964            28.47







                                Table 4a. Direct hits by mainland                    Table 4a summarizes the direct hits
                              United States Hurricanes (1900-1995)                   on the U. S. mainland this century.
                                                                                     The implication of table 4a is that
                                      Category   .Direct Hits                        during the period 1900-1995, an
                                          5           2                              average of 2 major hurricanes every
                                          4          15                              3 years made landfall somewhere
                                          3          46                              along the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic
                                          2          36                              coast. (All categories combined
                                          1          57                              average about 5 hurricanes every 3
                                       TOTAL         156                             years for the same period.)
                                       MAJOR         63
                            Major hurricanes are categories 3,4 & 5.                 One of the greatest concerns of the
                                                                            I        National Weather Service's (NWS)
                                                                                     hurricane preparedness officials is
                                                                                     that the statistics in tables 2-4 will
                 mislead people into thiding that no more luZe loss of life will occur in a hurricane because of o
                 advanced technology. Dr. Robert Burpee, spokesman for the NWS hurricane warning service and
                 Director of TPC, as well as former NHC Directors, Dr. Robert Sheets and Dr. Neil Frank, have
                 repeatedly emphasized the great danger of a catastrophic loss of life in a future hurricane if proper
                 preparedness plans for vulnerable areas are not formulated and maintained.

                              The study by Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield (1992), using 1990 census data, showed that
                 85% of U.S. coastal residents from Texas to Maine had ney experienced a direct hit by a major
                 hurricane. Many of those 45 million residents had moved to coastal sections during the past
                 twenty-five years. Even the landfalls of Andrew. Hugo and QVal have not lessened an ever growing
                 concern brought by the continued increase in coastal populations.

                              Table 5 which lists hurricanes by decades in this century shows that during the twenty
                 ye .ar penod 1960-1979 both the number and intensity of landfalling U.S. hurricanes decreased
                 sharply! Based on 1900-1959 statistics, the expected number of hurricanes and major hurricanes
                 during the period 1960-1979 was 36 and 15, respectively. In fact, only 27 or 75% of the expected
                 number of hurricanes struck the U.S. with only 10 major hurricanes or 67% of that expected number.
                 The decade of the eighties showed little change to this trend. Even the decade of the nineties, to
                 date, shows below average landfall frequencies. If the near record 1995 pace of storm frequencies
                 continues, a reversal in the recent trend may be upon us.

                              On the average a category 4 or greater hurricane strikes the U.S. once every 6 years.
                 Even with two category 4 hurricanes in three years, Hugo in 1989 and Andrew in 1992, these are the
                 only category 4 hurricanes since 1969. Fewer hurricanes do not necessarily mean a lesser threat of
                 disaster, however. The 1919 hurricane which is both the third deadliest and fourth most intense of
                 this century to strike the U.S. occurred in a year which had a total of only three storms/hurricanes.
                 Records for the most intense U.S. hurricane in 1935 and the costliest, Andrew in 1992, occurred in
                 years which had only six tropical storms or hurricanes.




                                                                      10







                         The conclusions are obvious. A large death toll in a U.S. hurricane is still possible. The
              decreased death totals in recent years may be as much a result of lack of major hurricanes striking
              the most vulnerable areas as they are of any fail-proof forecasting, warning, and observing systems.
              Continued coastal growth and inflation will almost certainly result in every future major landfalling
              hurricane (and even weaker hurricanes and tropical storms) replacing one of the current costliest
              hurricanes. If warnings are heeded and preparedness plans developed, the death toll can be reduced,
              but, in the absence of a change of attitude or laws restricting building near the ocean, large property
              losses are inevitable.





                             Table 5. Number of hurricanes by category to strike the mainland U.S.
                                       each decade. (Updated from Hebert et al. 1995)


                                                   Categ=              AL      Maig-r
                                DECADE      1    2    3    4    5   1,2,3,4,5  3,4,5


                                1900-1909   5    5    4    2    0      16        6
                                1910-1919   8    3    5    3    0      19        8
                                1920-1929   6    4    3    2    0      15        5
                                1930-1939   4    5    6    1    1      17        B
                                194o-1949   7    8    7    1    0      23        8
                                1950-1959   8    1    7    2    0      18        9
                                1960-1969   4    5    3    2    1      15        6
                                1970-1979   6    2    4    0    0      12        4
                                1980-1989   9    1    5    1    0      16        6
                                1990-1995   0    2    2    1    0      5         3


                                1900-1995   57   36  46    15   2      156       63

                                Note: Only the highest category to affect the U.S. has been used


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                                          12








                                                                                  Part 11


                   In addition to information about U.S. hurricanes, this section also includes statistics on total tropical
                   storm and hurricane activity.
                   (1) What is the average number of hurricanes per year? Table 6 gives the average number of
                   tropical cyclones which reached storm strength and hurricane strength for various time periods. A
                   total of ten tropical cyclones reaching storm strength with five or six of these becoming hurricanes
                   appears to be the
                   best averages to use                              Table 6. Average number of tropical cyclones which reached storm and
                   based on the past 10                          hurricane strength for various periods. Updated from Neumann, et al. (1993).
                   to 50 year time
                   periods.                                                                         Average number of Average number of
                                                                   PERIOD         Number of years Tropical Cyclones             Hurricanes
                   (2) What year(s)                             1886 - 1995              110                8.5                 5.0
                                                                1946   - 1995            50                 9.7                 5.7
                   have had the most                            1956 - 1995              40                 9.6                 5.5
                   a n d            I e a s t                   1966   - 1995            30                 9.9                 5.5
                                                                1976   - 1995            20                 9.7                 5.4
                   hurricanes? Table                            1981 - 1995              15                 9.7                 5.1
                   7 shows the years of                         1986 - 1995              10                 9.9                 5.3
                   maximum                 and              Includes subtropical storms after 1967
                   mi m-mum tropical
                   cyclone                and
                   hurricane activity for the entire Atlantic Ocean. The only years when a hurricane failed to strike the
                   U.S. coast were 1902, 1905, 1907, 1914, 1922, 1927, 1930, 1931, 1937, 1951, 1958, 1962, 1973,
                   1978, 1981, 1982, 1990 and 1994.. Note that only twice has the U.S. gone as long as two years
                   without a hurricane. The most hurricanes to strike the U.S. in one year were six in 1916 and 1985.
                   There were five in 1933, and four in 1906, 1909, and 1964. Three hurricanes have struck the U.S.
                   in one year a total of fifteen                  Table 7. Years of ma)dmum and minimum tropical cyclone and hurricane activity in the North
                   times. Ten of these fifteen                       Adanft Caribbean, and Gulf of Me)dco 1871 -1995 (updated from Neumann, et al., 1993)
                   times occurred during the
                   sixteen years from 1944 to                                                       MAXIMUM ACTIVITY
                   1959! A chronological list of                         TROPICAL CYCLONES'                              -      HURRICANES'
                                                                         Number          Years                            Number          Years
                   all hurricanes to strike the                             21           1933                                   12         1969
                   U.S. during this century                                 19           1995                                   11   1916,1950,1995
                                                                            is           1969                                   10   1887,1893,1933
                   through        1991        including                     17           1887                                   9      19S5,1980
                   month, category by states                                16           1936
                   affected, and minimum sea                                                        MINIMUM ACTIVITY
                   level pressure at landfall can                        TROPICAL CYCLONES'                                     HURRICANES"
                                                                         Number          Years                                            Years
                   be found in Jarrell, Hebert                              1        1890,1914                                  0      1907,1914
                   and Mayfield (1992).                                     2        1925,1930                                  1    1890,1905,1919,
                                                                                                                                           1925
                                                                                                                                2    1895,1897,1904
                                                                                                                                     1917,1922,1930,
                                                                                                                                       1931,1982


                                                                         Notes
                                                                            I    Includes subtropical storms after 1967.
                                                                            2    Distinction of hurricanes recorded only after 1885.




                                                                                       13







                     (3)             When did the earliest and latest hurricane occur?                        The hurricane season is defined
                     as June I through November 30. An early hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months
                     prior to the start of the season, and a late hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months
                     after the season. With these criteria the earliest observed hurricane in the Atlantic was on March 7,
                     1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second "Alice" of that year
                     which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. The earliest hurricane to strike the U.S. in this
                     century was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. The latest hurricane to strike the
                     U.S. was late on November 3 0, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.

                     (4)             What were the longest-lived and shortest-lived hurricanes? Ginger in 1971 holds
                     the record for both the most number of days as a hurricane (20) and tropical cyclone (28). There
                     have been many tropical cyclones which attained hurricane intensity for periods of 12 hours or less.

                     (5)             Nftat were the strongest and weakest Atlantic hurricanes? To strike the United
                     States? In terms of central pressure (and probably winds), the strongest observed hurricane in the
                     Atlantic basin was Gilbert in 1988 with a pressure of 888 millibars while located in the northwest
                     Caribbean. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 millibars was
                     the strongest hurricane to strike the U.S. Numerous hurricanes have reached only the minimum
                     wind speed near 74 miles per hour and struck the U.S.

                     (6)             'How many hurricanes have there been in each month? Table 8 adapted from
                     Neumann, et al. (1993) shows the total and average number of tropical cyclones and those which
                     became hurricanes by months for the period 1886-1995. In addition, the monthly total and average
                     number of hurricanes to strike the U.S. in this century (updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield,
                     1995) are given.


                              Table 8. Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by month of origin,
                                     1886-1995 (updated from Neumann et al. 1993), and for hurricanes striking the U.S. mainland
                                                                  (updated from Hebert, et al. 1995).


                                                      TROPICAL CYCLONES'               HURRICANES              U.S. HURRICANES2
                                     MONTH                  Total  Average           Total     Average           Total     Average
                                     JANUARY-APRIL          4                          1                           0         0.0F--
                                     MAY                    14        0.1              3                           0         0.00
                                     JUNE                   59        0.5             24          0.2              11        0.11
                                     JULY                   72        0.7             36          0.3              16        0.17
                                     AUGUST                 230       2.1             157         1.4              40        0.42
                                     SEPTEMBER              316       2.9             199         1.8              61        0.64
                                     OCTOBER                193       1.8             99          0.9              24        0.25
                                     NOVEMBER               44        0.4             23          0.2              4         0.04
                                     DECEMBER               6         0.1              3                           0         0.00

                                     YEAR                   938       8.5             545         5.0              156       1.42

                                     Includes subtropical storms after 1967. See Neumann, et al. (1993) for details.
                                    2For 1900-1995, (updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield, 1995)
                                     Less than 0.05.







                                                                                   14







                        (7)                 What was the largest number of hurricanes in existence in the Atlantic Ocean at
                        the same time?                     According to information on the current version of the master data file of
                        Neumann, et al (1993), there have never been four hurricanes in existence in the North Atlantic at
                        the same time in this century. On August 22, 1893 four hurricanes co-existed, one of them being
                        the hurricane which killed an estimated 2,000 people in Georgia-South Carolina several days later.
                        On September 11, 1961 three hurricanes and 12ossibly a fourth existed. The only other years in this
                        century with three hurricanes on the map at the same time were 1950 and 1967. In 1971 from
                        September 10 to 12, there were five tropical cyclones in existence at once; however while four of
                        these ultimately achieved hurricane intensity, never more than two were hurricanes at any one time.

                        (8)                 How many direct hits by hurricanes of various categories have affected each state?
                        Table 9, updated from Hebert, Jarrell and Mayfield, (1995), shows the number of hurricanes (direct
                        hits) affecting the U.S. and individual states. 'Me table shows that on the average close to three
                        hurricanes evga two yeam (1.5 per year) strike the U.S., while two mgjLor hurricanes cross the U.S.
                        coast somewhere ey= three years (0.67 per year). Other noteworthy facts, updated from Hebert,
                        Jarrell and Mayfield, (1.995), are: 1.) Thirty-seven percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida; 2.)
                        Seventy-one percent of category 4 or higher hurricanes have hit either Florida or Texas; 3.)
                        Approximately half the hurricanes to strike along the middle Gulf coast, southern Florida, New York
                        and southern New England are major ones.


                                                            Table 9. Hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. coastline and for individual states
                                                                     1900-1995 by Saffir/Simpson category (updated from Hebert et al. 1995).



                                                                                                                                          MAJOR
                                                                                            CATEGORY NUMBER                    ALL    HURRICANES
                                                            AREA                          1       2      3       4      5


                                                            U.S. (Twiss to Maine)       58      35       46    15       2      156             63


                                                            Texas                       12        9      9       6      0       36             15
                                                                     (North)              7       3      3       4      0       17             7
                                                                     (Centi'at)           2       2      1       1      0         8            2
                                                                     (South)              3       4      5       1      0       13             6
                                                            Louisiana                     a       5      a       3      1       25             12
                                                            Mississippi                   1       1      5       0      1         8            6
                                                            Alabama                       4       1      5       0      0       10             5
                                                            Florida                     17      16       17      6      1       57             24
                                                                     (Northwest)          9       8      7       0      0       24             7
                                                                     (Northeast)          2       7      0       0      0         9            0
                                                                     (Southwest)          6       3      6       2      1       is             9
                                                                     (Southeast)          5     10       7       4      0       26             11
                                                            Georgia                       1       4      0       0      0         5            0
                                                            South Carolina                6       4      2       2      0       114            4
                                                            North Carolina              10        3      9       1      0       23             10
                                                            Virginia                      2       1      1  *    0      0         4            1 .
                                                            Maryland                      0       1 *    0       0      0         1 .          0
                                                            Delaware                      0       0      0       0      0         0            0
                                                            New Jersey                    1       0      0       0      0         1 .          0
                                                            New York                      3       1 .    5 .     0      0         9            5 -
                                                            Connecticut                   2       3 *    3  '    0      0         8            3 -
                                                            Rhode Island                  0       2 *    3       0      0         5 .          3 -
                                                            Massachusetts                 2       2 *    2       0      0         6            2'
                                                            New Hampshire                 1       1 *    0       0      0         2*           0
                                                            Maine                         5*      0      0       0      0         5            0
                                                            Notes:
                                                                     Indicates all hurricanes in this group were moving faster than 30 mph.
                                                                     State totals will not equal U,S. totals, and Texas or Florida totals will
                                                                     not necessarily equal sum of sectional totals.



                                                                                                         is







                   (9)           When are the mago hurricanes likely to strike given areas? Table 10 shows the
                   incidence of major hurricanes by months for the mainland U.S. and individual states. For the United
                   States as a whole, September has had more major hurricanes than all other months combined.
                   However, four of the most devastating hurricanes did not occur in September--ANDREW (August
                   1992), CAMILLE (August 1969), AUDREY (June 1957), and HAZEL (October 1954). Only in
                   Texas and Louisiana are major hurricanes in August and September almost an equal threat. Most
                   major October hurricanes occur in southern Florida.



                              Table 10. Incidence of major hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. and individual
                                states, 1900-1995, by Saffir/Simpson category. (Updated from Hebert, et al. 1995)


                                        AREA                       JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. ALL


                                        U.S. (Texas to Maine)         2        3       15     35     8      63


                                        Texas                         1        1       7      6             15
                                               (North)                1        1       3      2             7
                                               (Central)                               1      1             2
                                               (South)                                 3      3             6
                                        Louisiana                     2                4      5      1      12
                                        Mississippi                            1       1      4             6
                                        Alabama                                1              4             5
                                        Florida                                1       2      15     6      24
                                               (Northwest)                     1              5.     1      7
                                               (Northeast)                                                  0
                                               (Southwest)                             1      5      3      9
                                               (Southeast)                             2      7      2      11
                                        Georgia                                                             0
                                        South Carolina                                        3      1      4
                                        North Carolina                                 2      7      1      10
                                        Virginia                                              1             1
                                        Maryland                                                            0
                                        Delaware                                                            0
                                        New Jersey                                                          0
                                        New York                                       1      4             5
                                        Connecticut                                    1      2             3
                                        Rhode Island                                   1      2             3
                                        Massachusetts                                         2             2
                                        New Hampshire                                                       0
                                        Maine                                                               0


                                        Note: State totals do not equal U.S. totals and Texas or Florida
                                               totals do not necessarily equal the sum of sectional entries.






                                                                            16


















               (10)         How long has it been since a major hurricane diregft hit a given community? Any
               hurricane? Indirectly? Table 11 summarizes the occurrence of the last major hurricane or of any
               hurricane to directly hit the more populated coastal communities from Brownsville, Texas to
               Eastport, Maine. In addition, if a hurricane indirectly affected a community after the last direct hit,
               it is listed in the last column of the table. In order to obtain the same type of information listed in
               Table I I for the remaining coastal communities, the reader is referred to Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield
               (1992).

                            There are many illustrative examples of the uncertainty of when a hurricane might strike
               a given locality. Pensacola, Florida, in 1995 experienced a direct hit by hurricanes Erin and an
               indirect hit from major hurricane Opal within two months after a period of nearly 70 years without
               a direct hit. Miami, which expects a major hurricane every 25 years, on average, was struck by a
               major hurricane in 1992 for the first time since 1950. Tampa, hasn't experienced a major hurricane
               for 75 years. Many locations along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts have never experienced a major
               hurricane in this century (see Table 11).

               (11)         What is the total United States damage (before and after adjustment for inflation)
               and death toll for each year of this century? Table 12 summarizes this information. Tables 12a
               ranks the years by deaths, by unadjusted damage and by adjusted damage. In most years the death
               and damage totals are the result of a single, major hurricane. Gentry (1966) gives damages adjusted
               to 1957-59 costs as a base for the period 1915-1965. For the most part, death and damage totals for
               the period 1915-1965 were taken   -from Gentry's paper, and for the remaining years from the Monthly
               Weather Review. Adjusted damages were calculated to 1994 dollars by the same factors as used in
               Table 3a.

















                                                                 17










                            Table 11.       Last direct or indirect hit by any or a major hurricane at certain Populated coastal communities. Category in parenthesis (Updated from Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield, 1992)



                                                                                             Direct Hits                         Indirect Hits                                                                               Direct Hits                             Indirect Hits
                           State            city                          Last Major                    Last Any          7 '@J     Last any                 State              city
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Last Major        77                               75,117    Last any
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         LastAny              1161
                           Texas            Brownsville               1980(3)     Allen            1980(3) Allen                                             Florida            Cocoa                  <1900                      1995(l)         Erin
                                                                                                N
                                                                      1970(3)     Celia       @"kv`                       @1 r@!' 1980(3) Allen                                 Daytona Bch            <1900                      'i, 1960(2)     Donna            1979(2) David
                                            Corpus Christi                                         1971(l) Fem
                                            Port Aransas              1970(3)     Celia            1971(l) Fern               1980(3) Allen                                     St. Augustine          <1900                      1964(2)         Dora
                                            Matagorda                 1961(4)     Carla       Jig' 1971(l) Fem                1983(3) Alicia                                    Jacksonville           <1900                 AE@  1964(2)         Dora
                                            Freeport                  1983(3)     Alicia           1983(3) Alicia                                                               Fernandina Bch <1900                         J-di 1928(2)                          1964(2) Dora
                                            Galveston                 1983(3)     Alicia           1989(l) Jerry                                             Georgia            Brunswick              <1900                      1928(1)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  f
                                                                                                   1989(1) Jerry                                                                Savannah               <1900                 QU 1979(2)           David
                                            Houston                   1941(3)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              A-
                                                                      <1900                        1986(l) Bonnie                                            S. Carolina        Hilton Head            1959(3) Gracie W@1, 1979(2)                David            1985(l) Bob
                                            Beaumont
                                                                                                                              1985(l) Juan
                                                                                             y                                                                                                                                                              0
                           Louisiana        Cameron                   1957(4)     Audre       A 1985(l) Danny                                                                   Charleston             1989(4) Hugo               1989(4)         Hug
                                            Morgan City               1992(3)     Andrew                      Andrew 111                                                        Myrtle Beach           1954(4*) Hazel             1954(4-)        Hazel       'S,t 1989(4) Hugo
                                            Houma                     1974(3)     Carmen           1985(l) Juan               1992(3) Andrew                 N. Carolina        Wilmington             1960(3*) Donna             1984(2)         Diana       @',.!'%v
                                            New Orleans               1965(3)     Betsy            1965(3) Betsy              1969(5) Camille                                   Morehead City          1960(3*) Donna             1960(3*)        Donna            1985(3*) Gloria
                           Mississippi      Bay St. Louis             1985(3)     Elena            1985(3) Elena                                                                Cape Hatteras          1993(3) Emily              1993(3)         Emily
                                            Biloxi                    1985(3)     Elena            1985(3) Elena                                             Virginia           Virginia Beach         1944(3*)                   1986(1)         Charley
                                                                                                                                                                                Norfolk                                                           Connie
                                                                                                   1985(3) Elena                                                                                       <1900                      1955(l)
                                            Pascagoula                1985(3)     Elena                                                                                                                                                                            1985(3*) Gloria
                                                                      1985(3)     Elena
                           Alabama          Mobile                                            R    1985(3) Elena                                             Maryland           Ocean City             <1900                 -A                                    1985(3*) Gloria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <1900
                           Florida          Pensacola                 1926(3)                      1995(l) Erin               1995(3) Opal                                      Baltimore              <1900                 "I"IN < i go o                        1954(2*) Hazel
                                            Panama City               1995(3)     Opal             1995(3) Opal                                              Delaware           Rehoboth Bch           <1900                      <1900                            1985(3*) Gloria
                                                                                                                                                                                Wilmington             <1900                      <1900                       "@R  1954(2*) Hazel
                                            Apalachicola              1985(3)     Elena            1985(2) Kate           -in 1995(3) Opal
                                            Homosassa                 1950(3)     Easy             1968(2) Gladys                                            New Jersey         Cape May               <1900                      1903(l)                          1985(3*) Gloria
                                                                                                                                                                                Atlantic City
                                                                      1921(3)                                                 1968(2) Gladys
                                            St. Petersburg                                         1946(l)                                                                                             <1900                      1903(l)                          1985(3*) Gloria
                                            Tampa                     1921(3)                      1946(l)                    1968(2) Gladys                 New York           New York City          <1900                      1903(1)                          1976(l) Belle
                                            Sarasota                  1944(3)                      1946(l)                    1966(2) Alma                                      Westhampton            1985(3*) Gloria            1985(3*)        Gloria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1991(2*)        Bob
                                            Fort Myers                1960(3)     Donna            1960(3) Donna              1966(2) Alma                   Connecticut        New London             1938(3*)
                                                                                                                      11      1992(3) Andrew                                    New Haven              1938(3-)              29P 1985(2-)         Gloria
                                            Naples                    1960(4)     Donna            1964(2) Isbe
                                            Key West                  1948(3)                      1987(l) Floyd                                                                Bridgeport             1954(3*) Carol             1985(2*)        Gloni
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            a
                                                                                               N
                                            Miami                     1992(4)     Andrew           1992(4) Andrew R"R                                        Rhode Island       Providence             1954(3*) Carol             1991(2*)        Bob
                                                                                                   1964(2) Cleo               1992(4) Andrew                 Mass.              Cape Cod               1954(3-) Edna              19912)          Bob
                                            Fort Lauderdale           1950(3)     King
                                                                                                                          41
                                            West Palm Beach           1949(3)                      1979(2) David                                                                Boston                 <1900                      1960 1*)        Donna            1991(1-) Bob
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10
                                            Stuart                    1949(3)                      1979(2) David                                             N. Hampshir        Portsmouth             <1900                      1985 2*)        G         a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ri
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1985 1*)           lo
                                                                                                   1979(2) David                                             Maine              Portland               <19100                                     G ria
                                            Fort Pierce               1933(3)
                                                                                                                                                                                Eastport               <19                        1969(l)                                       Gloria
                                            Vero Beach                <1900                        1 995(l) Erin          U   I                                                                                              I    I               Gerda

                           Notes:           <1900 means before 1900                                                                                          Notes:                Cape fear only,          Moving over 30 mph










                                                               Table 12. Estimated annual deaths and damages (unadjusted and adjusted' ) in the mainland
                                                                                 United States from landfalling Atlantic or Gulf hurricanes 1900-1995.


                                                                                 DAMAGE ($Millions)                                                    DAMAGE ($Millions)
                                                               YEAR  DEATHS Unadjusted Adjusted'                                !1T !A@ YEAR DEATHS Unadjusted Adjusted'
                                                                                                                                , N-11,
                                                               1900       8000                    30                   790      ko@ V1948              3                     18           113
                                                                                                                       2
                                                               1901              10               1                    26           1949               4                     59           370
                                                               1902              0         Minor              Minor                 1950               19                    36           222
                                                                                                                       2
                                                               1903              15               1                    26           1951               0                     2            11
                                                                                                                       2        uq@,Z,
                                                               19D4              5                2                    53       y1'@Fpgl-g 1952        3                     3            16
                                                                                                                                W,
                                                               1905              0         Minor              Minor             Vi  1953               2                     6            33
                                                                                                                                w-,
                                                                                                                                @'i, 5,7@ -,A
                                                               1906       298                     3+                   792      rr,
                                                                                                                                    1954          193                 756              4180
                                                               1907              0                0                    0        @`,,@-A 1955      218                 985              5348
                                                               1908              0                0                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                          139
                                                                                                                                    1956               19                    27
                                                                                                                                tEzl
                                                               1909       4D6                     8                    21 1 2       1957          400                 152                 758
                                                                                                                       262
                                                                                                                                    1958               2                     11           55
                                                               1910              30               1
                                                               1911              17               1                    262      @t6llg,4 1959          24                    23           116
                                                               1912              1         Minor              Minor                 1960               65             396              2006
                                                               1913              5                3                    792
                                                                                                                                _&4, 1961              46             414              2102
                                                                                                                                003111
                                                                                                                                INK, -
                                                               1914              0                0                    0            1962               3                     2            10
                                                               1916       550                     63          16603             1   1963               10                    12           59
                                                                                                                                0',
                                                               1916       107                     33                   723          1964               49             515              2564
                                                               1917              5         Minor              Minor                 1965               75           1445               6996
                                                               1918              34               5                    71
                                                                                                                                    1966               54                    15           70
                                                                                                                                "k-PT
                                                               1919       287s                    22                   278          1967               18             200                 900
                                                               1920              2                3                    30           1968               9                     10           43
                                                               1921              6                3                    38           1969          256               1421               5647
                                                               1922              0                0                    0            1970               11             454              1699
                                                               1923              0         Minor              Minor                 1971               8              213                 747
                                                               1924              2         Minor              Minor                 1972          122               2100               6924
                                                               1925              6         Minor              Minor             3,  1973               5                     3                  9
                                                                                                                                "'N
                                                               1926       269                112              1415                  1974               1              150                 396
                                                               1927              0                0                    0            1975               21             490              1191
                                                               1928       1836                    25                   315          1976               9              100                 233
                                                                                                                                -J@
                                                               1929              3                1                    12       7,  1977               0                     10           22
                                                               1930              0         Minor              Minor                 1978               36                    20           38
                                                               1931              0                0                    0            1979               22           3045               5210
                                                               1932              0                0                    0            1980               2              300                 463
                                                               1933              63               47                   701          1981               0                     25           36
                                                                          .17                                          68
                                                               1934                               5                                 1982               0            Minor              Minor
                                                               1935       414                     12                   163
                                                                                                                                11V,,tWQ` 1983         22           2000               2751
                                                                                                                                ,p
                                                               1936              9                2                    28
                                                                                                                                ffig, 19               4                     66
                                                                                                                                       84                                                 88
                                                               1937              0         Minor              Minor                 1985               30           4000               5197
                                                               1938       600                306              3864                  1986               9                     17           21
                                                               1939              3         Minor              Minor
                                                                                                                                    1987               0                     8            10
                                                                                                  5
                                                               1940              51                                    66           1988               6                     9                  1
                                                               1941              10               8                    98       11@
                                                                                                                                vNiA 1989              56           7670               8640
                                                               1942              8                27                   286          1990               13                    57           63
                                                                                                                                    199
                                                               1943              16               17                   169                 1           16           1500               1637
                                                               1944              64s         165              1641                  1992               24           26500              28687
                                                               1945              7                80                   773      17',' 1993             4                     57           59
                                                               1946              0                5                    41           1994               38             973                 973
                                                                                                                                                                             4                  4
                                                               1947              53          136                       935          1995               29           3723               3582


                                                                     Adjusted to 1994 dollars based on U.S. Department of Commerce Implicit
                                                                     Price Deflator for Construction. 1995 damages adjusted downward.
                                                               2     Using 1915 cost adjustment - none available prior to 1915.
                                                               3     Considered too high in 1915 reference.
                                                               4     Current estimate - subject to change.
                                                               S     Figures do not agree with table 2 because these figures are for landfalling
                                                                     hurricanes and do not include non-coastal deaths at sea.




                                                                                                                                19










                      Table 12a. Same information as in table 12, but only the top 30 years are ranked in colums
                                  by deaths, by unadjusted damages, and by adjusted' damages.


                               Ranked on                   Ranked on                  Ranked on
                                  Deaths               Unadjusted Damage           Adjusted' Damage
                            1 1900      8000           1  1992    26500            1 1992     28620
                                                       2  1989    7670
                                                                                   2 1989     8667
                            2 1928      1836
                                                "R                                   1965
                            3 1938      600            3  1985    4000             3          6994
                                              ME
                            4 1915      550                                        4 1972     6930
                                                       4  1995    3723
                                                                         Vull
                            5 1935      414            5  1979    3045             5 1969     5641
                            6 1909      406   0        6  1972    2100             6 1955     5349
                            7 1957      400   N,       7  1983    2000             7 1979     5207
                            8 1906      298            8  1991    1500             8 1985     5200
                            9 1919      287            9  1965    1445    N        9 1954     4181
                                                                            lg M9
                            10 1926     269          10   1969    1421           10  1938     3865
                                                          1955
                            11 1969     256                        985           11  1995     3582
                                                                             10
                                                 W
                            12 1955     218          12   1994     973           12  1983     2760
                                              001,
                                               TR -
                            13 1954     193          13   1954     756           13  1964     2565
                                                                           "Ygk
                            1
                              1972      122          14   1964     515
                            4                                                    14  1961     2103
                            15 1916     107          15   1975     490           15  1960     2008
                            16 1965      75          16   1970     454           16  1970     1698
                            17 1960      65          17   1961     414           17  1915     1660
                                                                                 18  1944     1640
                            18 1944      64          18   1960     396
                                                                         lb,azi.
                            19 1931      63          19   1938     306           19  1991     1635
                              1989       56   @No                        RD
                            20                  WWO,                       @al'lli
                                                     20   1980     300           20  1926     1415
                                                                                 21  1975     1191
                            21 1966      54      RRA 21   1971     213
                                                                                     1994      973
                            22 1947      53   MMYEI  22   1967     200
                                                                                 22
                            23 1940      51                        165           23  1947      936
                                                     23   1944
                            24 1964      49          24   1957     152           24  1967      900
                            25 1961      46          25   1974     150           25  1900      790
                            26 1994      38          26   1947     136           26  1945      773
                            27 1978      36   2@1    27   1926     112           27  1957      758
                                              -0 1
                                                                          1 161"'
                            28 1918      34          28   1976     100    1      28  1971      748
                            29 1910      30     Mi   29   1945       80          29  1916      723
                                             SIN
                            30           30          30   1984
                              1985                                               30  1933      701


                            +May actually have been as high as 10,000 to 12,000.
                             Adjusted to 1994 dollars based on U.S. Department of Commerce
                             Implicit Price Deflator for Construction. 1995 adjusted downward.
                            2Considered too high in 1915 reference.
                            3Using 1915 cost adjustment - none available prior to 1915.
                            sFigures do not agree with table 2 because these figures are for landfalling
                             hurricanes and do not include non-coastal deaths at sea.



                                                              20







               (12)         Are there hurricane cycles? Figures I through 10 show the landfalling portion of the
               tracks of major hurricanes which have struck any portion of the United States during this century.
                The reader might note the tendency of the major hurricanes to cluster in certain areas during certain
               decades. Another interesting point is the general tendency for this clustering to occur in the latter
               half of individual decades in one area and in the first half of individual decades in another area.
               During the very active period of the thirties this clustering is not apparent.

               A comparison of twenty-year periods beginning in 1900 indicates that the major hurricanes tended
               to be in the western Gulf Coast states at the beginning of the century, shifting to the eastern Gulf
               Coast states and Florida during the next twenty years, then to Florida and the Atlantic Coast states
               during the forties and fifties, and back to the western Gulf Coast states in the sixties and seventies.
               Do figures 9 and 10 indicate a shift to the eastern Gulf Coast states, Florida, and the Atlantic Coast
               states in the eighties and nineties?




































                                                                 21











                                       100*      95*                   so,        85,              so*             75*             70'              65*
                                          MXJ5R U.S'. HUAR18AXNES
                                                  (I- CATEGORY 3)
                                                        1901-1910
                                       40.                    Y@                                                                                                 .0.

                                                                                                                       . . . .         . . . .          . . .


                                                                                                       . . .           . . . .         . . . .          . . .



                                       3                                                                                                                        35.

                                                                                             .1906                     . . . .         . . . .
                                                                                                         fig           . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                                190
                                         . . .        . . .            1906-                           . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                       3                                                  1910                                                                  30'


                                                                                                       . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                                          f906
                                                                                                         9                . . .        . . . .          . . .
                                                                                                       190
                                                                       190*9
                                                                                                                       . . . .         . . . .          . . .

                                       25
                                         . . .        . . . .                                           41                                                      25
                                                                                      .1910
                                                                                             1909


                                                 95*                   90.        B5*              so*             75*             70*              65,
                                       Figure 1. Major landfOing United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                       during the period 1901-1910.

                                       100*      95,                              85*              so,             75'             70*              65*
                                         MAJOR U.S. HUPR18ANES
                                                     CATEGORY 3)
                                                       1911-1920

                                                                       . . . . . . . . . . . .                                   . . . . . . . .               1.0.
                                       0
                                        ... ...                        .... .. . .. .                                     ... .... ....

                                                                                      .... ..                          .... .... ...


                                                                                                                       . . . . . . . . . .


                                                                                                                       .... .... ...

                                       35                                                                                                                       Is.

                                                                                          . . .                        . . . .         . . . .          . . .


                                                                                      . . . .                          . . . .         . . . .          . . .


                                                                                                       . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                            -19-15 1918  -             1916.         1917 . . .        . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                       30     *    I 'k                      -       -                                                                            0.
                                                  0-@                  litNoor
                                       1919                                                            . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                           1918        71,916.         . . . .         . . . .         . . . .         . . . .
                                       1916'             1915          917
                                                                                                   '0                  . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                       25                              1915                                                                                       5-
                                                     1916
                                                                                             1919
                                                                       90, 15                      so*             75*             70'              65*
                                                                           ;NES

                                                                                          @I 906
                                                      . . .            906-               . . .
                                                                                          1910











                                                                                               9o,9
                                                                           7NES,

                                                                                     1917@
                                                                         1916.
                                       @I %15      1918
                                                   ' 4@58              ri.7
                                                           191
                                                        191            91
                                                                                                   .0

                                                      . . . .          . . .           . . . .
                                                                       191 @5

                                       Figure 2. Ma or landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                                        i
                                       during the period 1911-1920.
                                                                                                   22











                                     100*          95*                 90,              85*               80*              75*               70'               65*

                                           MAJO      R U.S. HURRICANES                                                                                . . . . . .
                                                    (a CATEGORY 3)
                                                          1921-1930


                                                                                                                                                                             110.

                                           ... ...                         ....                               .. . .... .... ...


                                                                                                                                . . . . . . . . . . .




                                                                                                              . . .             . . . .           . . . .           . . .

                                     35'                                                                                                                                     35'





                                                                                                              . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . .


                                                                       1926
                                     30'                                                                                                                                     30.

                                           . . .          . . .                                     1921      . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . .

                                                                                                    '1918     . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . .
                                                                1926       . . . .                                                 . . .          . . . .           . . .


                                                                                   1921
                                                                                               1929                                                                             5.
                                     26'

                                                          . . . .          . . . .          . . . .                             . . . .           . . . .
                                                                                                             1929


                                     L.0             5.                90.              85,               80*              75.               70'               65*
                                     Figure 3. Major lanffalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                     during the period 1921-1930.

                                     100*          95*                 90*              65*               so*              75*               70*               65*
                                           MAJ8R U.S1. HU9RICANES                                                                                 . . . . . . .
                                                   (2: CATEGORY 3)                          . . . .              . . .         1.9 a   . . . . . . . . .
                                                          1931-1940
                                                                -Y@


                                           . . . . . .                     . . . . . . .                         . . .                 . . . . . . . . .


                                                                                            . . . . . .                         . . . . . . . . . . .


                                                                                                                                . . . . . . . . . . .

                                                                                                                             go-1933              . . . .           . . .

                                     35'                                                                                                                                     35'



                                                                                            . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . .
                                                                  1 3A         1936                           . . . .        1933                 . . . . . . . .

                                     30      1932                                                                                                                               0.

                                                                                                              . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . .
                                                                                          1936      1933      . . . .           . . . .           . . . .           . . .
                                                          1932      1S 14
                                                                           . . . .          193

                                     1933                                                                        1933
                                     25                   1933
                                                                                                                935
                                                                                 ;NESN-
                                                     19426
                                                                                                    Is'
                                                                                                    92'

                                                                                                    .192.8
                                                                                               19*291
                                                                19         . . . .


                                                                                   1921


                                                                               PNES         @j


                                                                               1936
                                       @1 9 32
                                                                                             93- @193X3
                                           . . .          . . . .          . . . .          . . . .



                                                   95*                 90*              85,               f3o*                               70'               65*
                                     Figure 4. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                     during the period. 1931-1940.
                                                                                                          23










                                       100*         95,              90*               85*               80*                75'         70*               65'

                                            MAJOR U.S. HURRICANES                                                                               1944
                                                        CATEGORY 3)
                                                           1941-1960




                                       40.                                                                                                                            40'







                                                                                                            . . .           . . . .         . . . .          . . .

                                       3                                                                                                                              35'

                                                                                                                            . . . .         . . . .          . . .


                                                                                           . . . .          . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                                                           1949      1945   . . . .         . . . .         . . . .
                                                                                                     .1944                  . . . .         . . . .
                                                  1941        1   7
                                       3           A               vr                                    SY                                                           30'
                                          1942                                                                              . . . .         . . . .



                                           . . .        . . . .           . . . .                           . . . .                         . . . .          . . .
                                                1941 \.1942                                                         194                     . . . .          . . .
                                                                                       1960                                                                             5.
                                       25'                                             --  4 9:4     a              1942                   1944 . . .        . . .
                                                                                                         1 50     1945-)'
                                           . . .        . . . .           . . . .                        KING                               . . . .          . . .


                                                   95*               90,               as*               BW                 75*         70*               65'
                                       Figure 5. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                       during the period 1941-1950.

                                       1 W         95*               90*               as*               80*                75'         70*               65'
                                           MAJOR U.9. HUPR18ANES                                                                      DONNA EDNA.
                                                        CATEGORY 3)                        . . . .                           CAROL
                                                          1961-1960


                                                        ...               .... ..... ....                                             . .... ...
                                       40.                                                                  MINNIE                                                    .0.





                                                                                                                                  IONE


                                       3                                                                     EL             :DNA-1954                                 35'
                                                                                                                            10 NE-1955
                                                                                              GRAVE
                                                                                           . . .            . . .   COt NIE-1 955           . . . .          . . .
                                                                                                              PA@O@-l       9S4

                                                                                           . . .             HAZEL -1954    . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                      AUDI@E@-                                                              '959
                                       3                                                                     GRAVE -1                                     1           30*

                                          . . .         . . .             . . . .          . . .            . . . .         . . . .         . . . .

                                                                                                            . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                     AUDREY
                                                      1957'

                                                                                                                            . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                       25                                                                                                1                              5-
                                                                                                         DONNA
                                           . . .        . . . .           . . . .                        1060                               . . . .          . . .
                                                                               N ;ES



                                                              1947
                                         @"2
                                                                                                            5
                                                                                         @9@)91N GO
                                                                              PNES

                                                     @AU R@EYL
                                              -- @AREY
                                                         57 . . .
                                                                                                                                                                    T
                                       Li          95*               90,               as*               80,                75*         70'               65*
                                       Figure 6. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                       during the period 1951-1960.
                                                                                                     24










                              100,        95*            90*              85'          80,            75'           70*            65*

                                  MAJOR U.S. HURRICANES
                                          (1, CATEGORY 3)
                                               1961-1970



                                                                                                                                                40'


                                  . . .        . . .         . . . .                                        . . .       . . . .        . . .






                                                                                          . . .          . . . .        . . . .        . . .

                              35                                                                                                                5.



                                                                                                         . . . .        . . . .        . . .


                                                     BESTY,
                                  . . .        . . .          IL            . . . .       . . . .        . . . .        . . . .
                              30                     MILD                                                                                       30'
                                CARLA
                              CELIA                             CAMILLE                   . . . .        . . . .        . . . .        . . .
                                                     HILDA         1969
                                               CELIA 1964                   . . . .       . . . .        . . . .        . . . .        . . .
                                   Y - Ir 1970
                                 )LAM - CkRLA'                                       '0                  . . . .        . . . .        . . .
                              25'              961   . . . . . . . .          . . .       B@_Sly ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                25'
                                       BEULAH                                                       %
                                        1967                                                4*
                                                                                     Ka                                    . . .       . . .


                              110         95*           90,               85*          W              75*           70,            65*
                              Figure 7. Major lanffalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                              during the period 1961-1970.

                              100,        95,           go,               as*          80,            75*           70*            65*
                                  MXJ8R U.9. HUPRI"WE'S
                                          (a CATEGORY 3)
                                               1971-1980

                              0.                                            . . . . . . . .                       . . . . . . . . .
                                                             . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


                                                                                                         . . . . . . . . . . .

                              35'



                                                                                          . . . .        . . . .        . . . .

                                                          FREDERIC                        . . . .        . . . .        . . . .        . . .
                                                                          ELOISE
                                                                              . . .       . . . .        . . . .           . . .       . . .
                                               CARMEN
                              30               1     --           f       -        )X                                                           0.
                                                                ELOISE
                                                                .1975 .     . . . .       . . . .        . . . .        . . . .        . . .
                                ALLEN                        FREDERIC
                                                     CARMEN f979
                                               ALLEN   197
                              25               '1980                                                                                            25'
                                                                                                   'A                   . . . .        . . .

                                  . . .        . . . .       . . .


                              100*                       90*              85*          80*            75*           70*            65,
                                                                  PNES



                                                                  AMILLE
                                                                   1969
                                                     BES7r
                                                     MILD




                                               C
                                                     IMILD
                                               EL    A.19"
                                               197
                                               kR

                                                                 PNES


                                                                          ELO SE
                                               kA@ME@@t
                                                                            @ J0

                              Figure 8. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                              during the period 1971-1980.
                                                                                       25











                                     100,        95,               90*             85,              so*              75*            70'               65,

                                          MAJOR U.I.
                                                      CATEGORY 3)
                                                              HURRICANES


                                                        1981-1990                                                        GLORIA



                                     40.


                                                                                                                            . . .        . . . .          . . .


                                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .          . . .


                                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .          . . .


                                                                                                         . . .           . . . .         . . . .
                                     35.                                                                                             1                             15'
                                                                                       HUGO.             DIANA           . . . .         . . . .          . . .

                                                                                                         61 'A'
                                                                       . . . .         . . .             -984 .      .   . . . .         . . . . . . . .
                                                       ELENA                                                  GLORIA

                                            A
                                                      I . .        I   .   .           . .               . . 1995        . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                              UCIA1                                                          HUGO                                                  30*
                                     30                                                                      1989
                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .

                                                 A -ICIA               . . . ELENA                       . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                                                                  1985           <)

                                                      . . . .          . . . .         . . . .                           . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                     25'                                                                     - 4-%L                                                2
                                                                                                         4J .        II %
                                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .          . . .



                                     ic            5.              90*             85*              80*              75'            70*               65'-
                                     Figure 9. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category 3)
                                     during the period 1981-1990.

                                     100*        950               90*             85*              so,              75'            70'               65'
                                                           1               -
                                          M      OR U.S. HU9RICANES
                                                  (2: CATEGORY 3)
                                                        1991-2000


                                          ... ...                      .... .... ....                                               . .... ...

                                     0                                                                                                                             0.


                                          ... ...                      ....                              .. . .... .... ...



                                                                                                                       EMILX


                                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .          . . .

                                     35.



                                                                                                                            EMILY
                                                                                        . . . .          . . . .            1993

                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .         . . . .
                                                                             OPAL
                                     30'                   ANDREW                                                                                                  30*

                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .         . . . .          . . .



                                          . . .        . . . .             . . .                 .0

                                                                                                                         . . . .         . . . .          . . .
                                     25                                                                  ---:@@AN    IDR                                           25'
                                                                                                          4          1
                                                                                                         . i . ...          . . .        . . . .          . . .
                                                                         qANES A
                                                                                                                                iA
                                                                             ;NESN                                   ;GL 0 @R

                                                   @LENJ@                                                IMA
                                                                                                         .19"
                                                                                                               LO@
                                                                                                               19

















































                                                                             OPAL
                                                   kANDR 1-P


                                                         OPAL
                                                          1995

                                                   5.              90,              85*              80*                            70'               65,
                                     Figure    10. Major landfalling United States hurricanes (greater than or equal to a category
                                     33) during the period 1991-2000.
                                                                                                         26






                (13)         Are there hurricane cycles evident in certain years regardless of category or
                geographical area? Table 13 gives a tabulation of hurricanes of all categories to affect the U.S.
                by individual years within each decade.

                Figures I through 10 certainly support the existence of a cyclical nature of major hurricanes affecting
                given regions. Table 13 is also suggestive of preferred periods. However, it is left to the reader to
                decide what weight should be given to these statistics.



                           Table 13. Major and all category landfalling hurricanes in the mainland United States
                           by individual years.


                                                             Major Hurricanes
                                Decade      00    01    02   03    04    05    06     07    08   09     Total
                                1900-09      1                                  2                 3        6
                                1910-19      1                            2     2     1     1     1        8
                                1920-29           1                             2           1     1        5
                                1930-39                 1      3     1    1     1           1              8
                                1940-49           1     1            2    1           1     1     1        8
                                1950-59      2                       3    2           1           1        9
                                1960-69      1    1                  1    1           1           1        6
                                1970-79      1                       1    1                       1        4
                                1980-89      1                 1     1    2                       1        6
                                TOTAL        7    3     2      4     9   10     7     4     4    10       60
                                1990-99                 1      1          1                                3


                                                               All HU
                                Decade      00    01    02   03    04    05    06    07 08       09     Total
                                1900-09      1    2            2     1          4           1     4       15
                                1910-19      2    2     2      2          3     6     1     1     1       20
                                1920-29      2    2.           1     2    1     3           2     2       15
                                1930-39                 2      5     2    2     3           2     1       17
                                1940-49      2    2     2      1     3    3     1     3     3     3       23
                                1950-59      3          1      3     3    3     1     1           3       18
                                1960-69      2    1            1     4    1     2     1     1     2       Is
                                1970-79      1    3     1            1    1     1     1           3       12
                                1980-89      1                 1     1   .6     2     1     1     3       16
                                TOTAL       14    12    8    16    17    20    23     8     11   22      151
                                1990-99           1     1      1          2                                5














                                                                   27








                                   Table 14. Deadliest, Costliest Hurricanes of theTwentieth Century to affect Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.


                                                                                  Island or                    Damage ($000)                                  Max Wind          Min P
                                Name                          Date                  CPA               Unadjusted              Adjusted          Deaths          (Mph)           (Mb)
                                Mokapu Cyclone            Aug 19,1938         25 mi NE Oahu                Unk                  Unk                   Unk         Unk           Unk
                                Hiki                      Aug 15,1950         100 mi NE Hawaii             Unk                  Unk                   Unk         Unk           Unk
                                Nina                      Dec 02,1957         100 mi SW Kauai              200                  998                   4           90            965
                                Dot                       Aug 06,1959               Kauai                  6,000              30,300                  0           115           955
                                Iwa                       Nov 23,1982         25 mi NW Kauai             312,000              433,680                 1           90            964
                                Iniki                     Sep 11,1992               Kauai              1,800,000            1,944.000                 4           130           950
                                                                                                                                                                     I
                                RNA MIRIMIRMIMPRIM111 1111111111111111111111111111111111 MWIMEMWAM I Mangum                                           MIMEW               lww@w
                                San Hipolito              Aug 22,1916           Puerto Rico                1,000              21,900                  1           98            988
                                San Liborio               Jul 23,1926         SW Puerto Rico               5,000              63,150                  25          81            -985
                                San Felipe                Sep 13,1928           Puerto Rico              85,000             1,071,000                 312         161           931
                                San Nicolas               Sep 10, 1931          Puerto Rico                200                2,674                   2           121           988
                                San Ciprian               Sep 26,1932             USVI, PR               30,000               401,100                 225         98            948
                                San Mateo                 Sep 21,1949             St. Croix                Unk.                 Unk                   Unk         81            -985
                                Santa Clara (Betsy)       Aug 12,1956           Puerto Rico              40,000               205,600                 16          92            991
                                Donna                     Sep 05,1960      1  PR & St. Thomas              Unk                  Unk                   107         132           958
                                Eloise (T.S.)             Sep 15,1975      1    Puerto Rico                Unk                  Unk                   44          40            1007
                                David                     Aug 30,1979      2  S. of Puerto Rico            Unk                  Unk                   Unk         173           924
                                Frederic (T.S.)           Sep 04,1979      2    Puerto Rico              125,000              213,760                 7           58            1000
                                Hugo                      Sep 18,1989             USVI, PR             1,000,000            1,130,000                 5           138           940
                                Marilyn                   Sep 16,1995           USVI, E. PR            1,500,000            1,440,000                 8           109           952

                                                                                2
                                   Effects continued into the following day.      Damage and Casualties from David and Frederic are combined.

                          L


                          Table 14 lists important hurricanes of Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U. S. Virgin Islands during the twentieth century. The Saffir/Simpson
                          scale and the empirical Atlantic wind pressure relationship do not strictly apply in the Hawaiian area, and thus hurricanes are not readily
                          comparable to those of the Atlantic basin. Additionally some of the hurricanes passing Kauai were moving fast and this translation speed
                          probably adds to the maximum wind. In both island areas, some minimum pressure values appear inconsistent with the given wind values.
                          This is largely attributable to the given minimum pressure and maximwn winds not necessarily being the extremes in the hurricane.









                                                            SUMIVLARY


               In virtually every coastal city of any size from Texas to Maine, the present Tropical Prediction
               Center Director, Dr. Robert Burpee, or former National Hurricane Center Directors, Dr. Robert
               Sheets and Dr. Neil Frank, have stated that the United States is building toward a hurricane disaster.
               The population growth versus low hurricane experience levels indicated in Hebert, Taylor, and Case
               (1984), together with updated statistics presented by Jarrell, Hebert and Mayfield (1992) form the
               basis for their statements. Stated simply, the areas of the United States where 9 out of 10 persons
               have lost their lives by drowning from the storm surge during hurricanes along the immediate Gul
               of Mexico and Atlantic shorelines) are the very areas where the most dramatic increases in
               population have occurred in recent years. This situation, in combination with continued building
               on low coastal elevations, will lead to serious problems for many areas in future hurricanes. Since
               it is likely that people will always live along the immediate shoreline, a pleasant way of life, the
               solution to the problem lies in education and preparedness.

               The message to coastal residents is this: Become familiar with what hurricanes can do, and when a
               hurricane threatens your area, increase your chances of survival by moving away from the water until
               the hurricane has passed! Unless this message is clearly understood by coastal residents through a
               thorough and continuing preparedness effort, disastrous loss of life is inevitable, in the future.

               Acknowledgments: The work of J.G. Taylor and R.A. Case, co-authors of previous versions of this
               paper, contributed much. Joan David drafted the figures. Linda Krernkau provided the 1990 census
               data.
































                                                                29








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                                                                30




               NWS NBC 21      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1983. Gilbert B. Clark and Staff, NHC - January 1984
               NWS NHC 22      A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses. Brian R. Jarvinen, Charles J.
                               Neumann, and Mary A. S. Davis - March 1984
               NWS NBC 23      Frequency and Motion of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Congyuan Xue and Charles J. Neumann - May 1984 (PB85106466)
               NWS NHC 24      Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations - Texas to Maine - June 1984 (PB85111383)[Revised as NWS NHC 46]
               NWS NBC 25      A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the Eastern and Central North Pacific Basins, 1949-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses - September 1984
                               (PB85110054)
               NWS NBC 26      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1994. Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case, NHC - February 1985
               NWS NHC 27      A Storm Surge Atlas for Corpus Christi, Texas. Brian R. Jarvinen, A. Barry Damiano, and Gloria J. D. Lockett - August 1985
               NWS NHC 29      A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion (WPCLPR). Yiming Xu and Charles 1. Neumann,
                               November 1985
               NWS NHC 29      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1985. Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case, NBC - March 1986
               NWS NHC 30      A Storm Surge Adas for the Sabine Lake (Texas/Louisiana) Area. Victor Wiggert and Brian Jarvinen - April 1986
               NWS NHC 31      The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts)(Rev.
                               of NOAA TM 18). Paul J. Hebert, WSFO Miami; Glenn Taylor and Robert A. Case, NHC - Revised February 1995 by P. J. Hebert, J. D.
                               Jarrell, and M. Mayfield
               NWS NHC 32      Comparison of Observed Versus SLOSH Model Computed Storm Surge Hydrographs Along the Delaware and New Jersey Shorelines for
                               Hurricane Gloria, September 1985. Brian Jaryinen, NHC; Jeff Gebert, Army COE, Philadelphia, PA - September 1986
               NWS NHC 33      Hurricane Tracking Using an Envelope Approach - Impacts Upon Forecasts. Robert C. Sheets - October 1986
               NWS NHC 34      An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change - Robert T. Merrill - February 1987
               NWS NHC 35      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1986 - Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case - March 1987
               NWS NHC 36      Observed Versus Slosh Model Storm Surge for Connecticut, New York and Upper New Jersey in Hurricane Gloria, September 1985 - Brian
                               Jarvinen and Jeff Gebert - August 1987
               N`WS-NHC 37     Observed Versus Slosh Model Storm Surge for North Carolina in Hurricane Gloria, September 1985 - Brian Jarvinen and Allan McDuffie -
                               August 1987
               NWS NHC 38      The National Hurricane Center Risk Analysis Program (HURISK) - Charles J. Neumann - November 1987
               NWS NBC 39      Satellite Interpretation Messages - A Users' Guide - James S. Lynch - May 1987
               NWS NHC 40      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1987. Gilbert B. Clark and Robert A. Case - March 1988
               NWS NHC 41      The National Hurricane Center NHC83 Model - Charles J. Neumann - May 1988
               NWS NHC 42      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 1988
               NWS NHC 43      Annual Data and Verification Tabulation - Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones 1988
               NWS NHC 44      A Revised National Hurricane Center NHC83 Model (NHC90) - Charles J. Neumann (Science Applications International Corporation) and Colin
                               J. McAdie (NHC) - November 1991
               KWS NHC 45      Hurricane Gilbert (1988) In Review and Perspective - Edward N. Rappaport and Colin J. McAdie - November 1991
               KWS NHC 46      Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations from Texas to Maine - Jerry D. Jarrell, Paul J. Hebert, and Max Mayfield - August
                               199i
               NWS NHC 47      The Deadliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1492-1994 - Edward N. Rappaport and Jos6 Femindez-Partagis - January 1995

               NWS TPC I       The Deadliest and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of This Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts)(Revision of NWS
                               NHC-31) - Paul J. Hebert, Jerry D. Jarrell, and Max Mayfield - February 1996
















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