[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]





                         United Nations    World             United States Army Corps of         May 1990
                         Environment       Meteorological    Engineers, Environmental Protection
                         Programme         Organization      Agency, National Oceanic and
                                                               Atmospheric Administration
                         Changing Climate and the Coast
         9
                         Volume 1: Adaptive Responses and their Economic,
                         Environmental, and Institutional Implications









          Is,    ed.


                   LLI
         BO
                                                     oA


           .114L -PRO


                                           W



                               V-
                'YAW,






















         ov



























                                         Report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
                                            from the Miami Conference on Adaptive Reponses
                                                  to Sea Level Rise and Other Impacts
                                                       of Global Climate Change


















































                                            Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Pubikadon Data

                                            Changing Climate and the Coast / edited by James G. Titus.
                                                Papers presented at workshop held in Nfiami, Fla, Nov 27-Dec 1, 1989,
                                              sponsored by the US Environmental Protection Agency and others.
                                                Contents: vol. 1. Adaptive responses and their economic, environ-
                                              mental, and institutional implications-vol. 2. Western Africa, the Ameri-
                                              cas, the Mediterranean basin, and the rest of Europe
                                                Includes bibliographical references.
                                                1. Global warming-Congresses. 2. Climatic Changes--Congresses.
                                              3. Sea level--Congresses. 1. Titus, James G. II. United States Environ-
                                              mental Protection Agency.
                                              QC981.8.G56C55 1990                                              90-2741
                                              333.91'7--dc2O                                                     CIP









       CHANGING CLIMATE AND THE COAST


          VOLUME 1: ADAPTIVE RESPONSES AND THEIR'ECONOMIC,
             ENVIRONMENTAL, AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS




             REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
                FROM THE MIAMI CONFERENCE-ON ADAPTIVE RESPONSES TO
                        SEA LEVEL RISE AND OTHER IMPACTS OF
                                GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE



                                                       U - S - DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA
                                                       COASTAL SERVICES CENTER
                                                       2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE
                                                       CHARLESTON, SC 29405-2413
                                       Edited by

                                     James G. Titus
                            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency


                                  with the assistance of

                                     Roberta Wedge

                                      Norbert Psuty
                                    Rutgers University

                                      Jack Fancher
                     U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration


                                         Property of CSC Library

       The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and unless noted otherwise do not necessarily
        represent official views of any of the sponsoring agencies or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
        Change.











                                              PREFACE



               Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases released by
         human activities are expected to warm the Earth by a mechanism commonly known
         as the "greenhouse effect." Such a warming could raise the level of the oceans
         and thereby inundate low-lying areas, erode beaches, exacerbate coastal flooding,
         and increase the salinity of estuaries and aquifers. Changes in temperatures,
         precipitation patterns, and storm severity could also have important impacts on
         the coastal environment.

               In November 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World
         Meteorological Organization created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
         (IPCC), and directed it to assess the science, impacts, and possible responses
         to global climate change. This report presents the findings of a conference held
         in Miami from November 27 to December 1 on the under the auspices of the Coastal
         Management Subgroup of the IPCC's Response Strategies Working Group. The Miami
         conference focused on the implications of sea level rise for Western Africa, the
         Americas, the Mediterranean Basin, and the rest of Europe; a second conference
         held in Perth, Australia addressed the other half of the world.

               Many people helped in the compilation of this report.          Roberta Wedge
         coordinated the production.     Norbert Psuty   provided overall guidance to the
         authors of eleven country-specific papers.      Jack Fancher rewrote one of the
         papers.    Sheila Blum, Lou Butler,      Karen Clemens, Marcella Jansen, Susan
         MacMillan, Joan O'Callahan, Karen Swetlow,      and Lim Valianos copyedited the
         manuscripts.

               John Carey chaired the conference, assisted by session chairpersons Job
         Dronkers, Asgar Kej, Randy Hanchey, Ahmad Ibrahim, John Campbell, Ines
         Schusdziarra, Thomas Clingan, Chidi Ibe, C.A. Liburd, and Jim Broadus.           Tom
         Ballentine made conference arrangements; Muriel Cole, Joan Pope, Steve
         Leatherman   Fatimah Taylor, Charles Chesnutt, and Melanie Jenard also assisted
         with the conference organization.     V. Asthana, J.R. Spradley, Cate McKenzie,
         Peter Shroeder, Katie Ries, and Morgan Rees worked several nights attempting to
         ensure that the summary conference report adequately reflected the views
         expressed at the meeting.    But most importantly, over one hundred researchers
         and officials from all six inhabited continents and several island states -- on
         short notice -- prepared papers, came to Miami, and initiated a dialogue on how
         the nations of the world can work together to meet the challenges of rising seas
         and changing climate.











                                         TABLE OF CONTENTS




                                                                                          Page
          VOLUME I

          CONFERENCE REPORT: Adaptive Options and Policy Implications of Sea Level Rise
          and Other Impacts of Global Climate Change      . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .     3

          X.     PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .      51

                 Causes of Sea Level Rise    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .      53

                 An Overview of the Effects of Global Warming on the Coast     . . . . .    63
                 James G. Titus

                 Reasons for Being Concerned About Rising Sea Level      . . . . . . . .    87
                 Dr. Louis W. Butler

                 Existing Problems in Coastal Zones: A Concern of IPCC?      . . . . . .    95
                 Robbert Misdorp

                 Holding Back the Sea    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .       101
                 Jodi L. Jacobson

                 Assessing the Impacts of Climate: The Issue of Winners and Losers
                   in a Global Climate Change Context     . . . . . . . . . . . . . .      125
                 Michael H. Glantz

          11.    OPTIONS FOR ADAPTING TO CHANGING CLIMATE     . . . . . . . . . . . .      139

                 Options for Responding to a Rising Sea Level and Other Coastal
                   Impacts of Global Warming   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .       141
                 James G. Titus

                 Coastal Engineering Options by Which a Hypothetical Community
                   Might Adapt to Changing Climate   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .       151
                 Joan Pope and Thomas A. Chisholm

                 The Role of Coastal Zone Management in Sea Level Rise Response            161
                 Marcella Jansen

                 A Worldwide Overview of Near-Future Dredging Projects Planned in
                   the Coastal Zone   . . . 167
                 Robbert Misdorp and Rien Boe7je





                                                   v










               111. ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, LEGAL, AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS
                       OF RESPONSE STRATEGIES      . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .         173

                     Socioeconomic, Legal, Institutional, Cultural, and Environmental
                       Aspects of Measures for the Adaptation of Coastal Zones at Risk
                       to Sea Level Rise    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .           175
                     Job Dronkers, Rein Boeije, and Robbert Misdorp

                   A. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS        . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .         195

                     Environmental Implications of Shore Protection Strategies Along Open
                       Coasts (with a Focus on the United States)         . . . . . . . . . .       197
                     Stephen P. Leatherman

                     Implications of Response Strategies for Water Quality         . . . . . .      209
                     Richard A. Park

                     Coastal Marine Fishery Options in the Event of a Worldwide Rise in
                       Sea Level   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .            217
                     John T. Everett and Edward J. Pastu7a

                     Impact of Response Strategies on Deltas       . . . . . . . . . . . . .        225
                     James G. Titus

                     Environmental Impacts of Enclosure Dams in the Netherlands           . . .     229
                     J.G. De Ronde


                   B. LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS         . . . . . . . . . . . . .        235

                     International Legal Implications of Coastal Adjustments Under Sea
                     Level Rise: Active or Passive Policy Responses?          . . . . . . . .       237
                     David  Freestone and John Pethick

                     Legal  Implications of Sea Level Rise in Mexico        . . . . . . . . . .     257
                     Diana  Lucero Ponce Nava

                     Legal  and Institutional Implications of Adaptive Options of Sea
                     Level  Rise in Argentina, Uruguay, and Spain      . . . . . . . . . . . .      261
                     Guillermo J. Cano

                     Preserving Coastal Wetlands as Sea Level Rises: Legal Opportunities
                       and Constraints    . . . . . . . .       . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .       269
                     Robert L. Fischman and Lisa St. Am;n@

                     State and Local Institutional Response to Sea Level Rise: An
                       Evaluation of Current Policies and Problems        . . . . . . . . . . .     297
                     Paul Klarin and Marc Hershman

                     Role of Education in Policies and Programs Dealing with Global
                       Climate Change     . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .         321
                     Mike Spranger


                                                         vi











          C. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   333

             Funding Implications for Coastal Adaptations to Climate Change:
               Some Preliminary Considerations  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   335
             John Campbell

             Preparing for Sea Level Rise at the Local Level  . . . . . . . . . .   345
             James B. Edmonson, IV

             Toward an Analysis of Policy, Timing, and the Value of Information
              in the Face of Uncertain Greenhouse-Induced Sea Level Rise . . . .    353
             Gary W. Yohe

             Risk-Cost Aspects of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change in the
               Evaluation of Coastal Protection Projects . . .                      373
             David A. Hoser, Eugene Z. Stakhiv, and Limberios V;Iii;n;s* * * * *

      IV. SPEECHES   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    385

             Global Partnerships for Adapting to Global Change  . . . . . . . . .   387
             John A. Knauss

             Luncheon Remarks  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    393
             John Doyle




























                                             vii



























I









                   CONFERENCE REPORT









                    ADAPTIVE OPTIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
                                  OF SEA LEVEL RISE AND
                                      OTHER IMPACTS OF
                                  GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


                  MIAMI WORKSHOP REPORT TO THE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT
                          SUBGROUP OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL
                                        ON CLIMATE CHANGE






          INTRODUCTION

               Since the beginning of human history, a large portion of the Earth's
          population has inhabited the coastal zones of the world. Proximity to fertile
          coastal lowlands, the richness of the seas, and water transportation have long
          been, and still are, the primary motivations for coastal habitation.

               Population growth and increasing exploitation of coastal resources are
          threatening the integrity of the coastal environment.      Moreover, there is a
          growing consensus among scientists that the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse
          gases could change global climate and accelerate the rate of sea level rise,
          which would place further stress on coastal zones. Loss of lives, deterioration
          of the environment, and undesirable social and economic dislocation may become
          unavoidable.

               These circumstances demand political, scientific, legal, and economic
          action at international and national levels. It is imperative that such actions
          focus on sustainable approaches to the management of coastal resources.

               To provide the basis for an internationally accepted strategy to address
          climate change, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations
          Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
          (IPCC) in November 1988, creating working groups to (I) conduct a scientific
          .assessment of the magnitude and timing of climate change; (II) assess the
          resulting socioeconomic and environmental impacts; and (111) develop response
          strategies to limit and/or adapt to climate change.

               This report presents the findings of a workshop held in Miami (U.S.A.) from
          November 27 to December 1, 1989, under the auspices of the Coastal Zone
          Management Subgroup of the IPCC Working Group III. More than 100 scientists and
          government officials from 37 nations met to discuss potential strategies to
          adapt to sea level rise and other impacts of global climate change, and to
          consider the social, economic, legal, environmental, financial, and cultural


                                                  3









              implications of such strategies. This workshop focused on the Americas, Europe,
              the Mediterranean, and Western Africa.       A second workshop in February 1990 at
              Perth (Australia) will examine the concerns of other continents and island
              nations.

                    The sections of this report were drafted by the participants in each of the
              corresponding workshop sessions during the third and fourth days, with the final
              day devoted to a plenary review of the entire report. The following sections
              summarize the findings on problem identification; adaptive options; the
              environmental, social and cultural, legal and institutional, and economic and
              financial (including funding) implications of the adaptive strategies; regional
              findings for Western Africa, the Northern Mediterranean and Black Seas, the
              Southern Mediterranean, Non-Mediterranean Europe, Central and South America, and
              North   America.      The   final   section   presents    general   conclusions     and
              recommendations.

                    The workshop    examined numerous structural and planning approaches.
              Although human ingenuity can reduce the effects of sea level rise, the
              participants concluded that even the most concerted actions could not eliminate
              all of the adverse consequences. Thus, even though the focus of the workshop
              was on adaptive options, the participants felt that limiting the buildup of
              atmospheric greenhouse gases must be a global priority. Moreover, the burden
              of coping with accelerated sea level rise and other consequences of a greenhouse
              warming would fall disproportionately on those nations least able to cope with
              them. Many participants believe that the industrialized nations have a special
              responsibility to assist developing nations in adapting to these consequences.

                    The participants were unanimous in their conviction that the world urgently
              needs to begin the process of identifying, analyzing, evaluating, and planning
              adaptive responses and their timely implementation. Even though sea level rise
              is predicted to be a relatively gradual phenomenon, strategies appropriate to
              unique social, economic, environmental, and cultural considerations require long
              lead times.     Nature has provided us with some time; the nations of the world
              -- collectively and individually -- should use it wisely.


              PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION

                    Coastal zones have high economic values and are rich in natural resources
              and amenities, but their environments are often physically hostile. Life on the
              coast is already vulnerable to natural forces whose effects could be exacerbated
              by an accelerated ri    'se in local sea level.         Most shorelines experience
              significant and almost constant change, with enormous commercial, recreational,
              and environmental values at risk.      Each year, throughout the world, lives are
              lost, people are injured and left homeless, and tens of billions of dollars' (or
              equivalent denominations) worth of property are damaged by storms and other
              natural coastal hazards.      Flooding, beach erosion, habitat modification and
              loss, structural damage, silting, shoaling, and subsidence resulting from
              natural factors continue to pose major public safety and economic consequences
              and impair many of the intangible benefits derived fromthe coastal zone.



                                                        4









                 Yet while the risks are substantial, the benefits of coastal resources
            significantly outweigh their costs, and thus continue to attract human activity
            (Figure 1) .    If an accelerated rise in global sea level is added to the
            equation, however, the risks to life and property become significantly worse.

                 Tidal gauge records show that global sea level has been rising I to 2
            millimeters per year over the last century.       However, according to IPCC Working
            Group I, models of the climate, oceans, and cryosphere suggest that sea level
            could rise 4 to 6 millimeters per year on average through the year 2050 for a
            total rise of 25 to 40 centimeters.            The accelerated rise would be due
            principally to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of small mountain
            glaciers.    Although Working Group I has concluded that the melting of the
            Greenland ice sheet could contribute up to 0.37 millimeters per year for every
            degree (C) of warming, it estimates that this contribution would be largely
            offset by an accumulation of ice in Antarctica sufficient to lower sea level
            0.3 millimeters per year per degree of warming. Working Group I believes that
            there is so much inertia in global warming that some acceleration of sea level
            rise is inevitable.

                 A rise in sea level would (1) inundate wetlands and lowlands; (2) erode
            shorelines; (3) exacerbate coastal flooding; (4) increase the salinity of
            estuaries and aquifers and otherwise impair water quality; (5) alter tidal
            ranges in rivers and bays; (6) change the locations where rivers deposit
            sediment; (7) change the heights, frequencies, and other characteristics of
            waves; and (8) decrease the amount of light reaching the sea floor.                Local
            subsidence can exacerbate all of these effects.

                 Nature requires coastal wetlands, and the dryland found on coral atolls,
            barrier islands, and river deltas, to be just above sea level.            If sea level
            rises slowly, as it has for the last several thousand years, these systems can
            keep pace.    Wetlands collect sediment and produce peat, which enable them to
            stay just above sea level; atoll islands are sustained by sand produced by
            nearby coral reefs; barrier islands migrate landward; and the sediment washing
            down major rivers enables deltas to keep pace with sea level. If sea level rise
            accelerates, however, at least some of these environments will be lost.
            Riverside lands tens of kilometers inland could be as vulnerable as land along
            the open coast.     The loss of productive wetlands, which act as protective
            buffers from the sea and provide crucial habitats for many animal species
            important to human society, could be particularly important.

                 A one-meter rise in sea level could inundate a major part of Bangladesh,
            for example; a two-meter rise could inundate Dhaka, its capital, and over one-
            half of the populated islands of several atoll nations, including the Maldives
            (Figure 2), Kiribas, and the Marshall Islands.        Shanghai (Figure 3) and Lagos
            -- the largest cities of China and Nigeria, respectively -- are less than two
            meters above sea level, as is 20 percent of the population and farmland of
            Egypt. In many areas, the total shoreline retreat from a one-meter rise would
            be much greater than suggested by the amount of land below the one-meter contour
            on a map, because shorelines would also erode (Figures 4 and 5).

                 Sea level rise would also increase the risk of flooding (Figure 6). The
            higher base for storm surges would be particularly important in areas where

                                                       5








              A





                4&k





































                                         -Mrrv  W S

                                                              -Am
                                                              ';=Mll   .11 1               : I   :     :   . . -
                                                                  VM
                                                                  Vft
                                                                  'WW
                                                                             tan,






















                                                                                                                      ..... . ....
                  Figure 1.        Activity along the coast is increasing in both developing and
                  industrial nations, as shown in (A) Bombay and (8) Miami.

                                                                        6








             A



                                                        Y









                                                              v,






                          ism -









               7









































                                                                                      044k


                                                                    6S



             Figure 2. Low vulnerable areas: (A) Tulhadoo, Republic of Maldives    (note that
             the high-water mark is just below the land elevation); (B) in crowded areas such
             as Bombay, it is often necessary to build up to the water's edge.

                                                     7


































                                         IR



                                                                     IWO_

                                                                            PF






                      Figure 3. Much of              Shanghai is below sea level.







                                                                       V4




                                                                                    I   Ik I
                                                                                                                        Wft






                                                                                   r%4@,










                      Figure 4. The Great Wall of China                        is already eroding.

                                                                                     8








                                171










                                  62







           B













                                       el@' N""
                                         N",
                                                                           7w







                                                           'EV @j
                                                                                      fto











           Figure 5. (A) Cliff and     (B) beach erosion in Massachusetts.

                                                     9








                hurricanes and typhoons are frequent, such as islands in the Caribbean Sea, the
                southeastern United States, and the Indian subcontinent.        Had flood defenses
                not already been erected, London and the Netherlands would also be at risk from
                winter storms.

                     Rising sea level could also degrade water quality. Saltwater would advance
                inland in both aquifers and estuaries; and wetlands could become saltier even
                if the salinity of adjacent bays did not increase.         Moreover, by deepening
                shallow bodies of water, sea level rise could cause them to stagnate.            Fish
                ponds in Malaysia, the Philippines, and China have been designed so that the
                tides provide sufficient mixing; deeper ponds would require more flushing to
                avoid stagnation.

                     In atolls, coral reefs supply the sand necessary to keep the islands from
                being eroded and inundated.        In the long run, any limitation of coral
                productivity could increase the risk that these islands will suffer from erosion
                or inundation.

                     In addition to sea level rise, global warming could alter the frequency and
                severity of storms; change ocean currents and the resulting local climates;
                change the amount of rainfall and hence, the flow of freshwater in rivers; and
                alter the wave climatology along shores.

                     These physical changes could pose a threat to ecological balances and to
                the coastal infrastructure, including roads, ports, industrial facilities, and
                residential and commercial structures.     Populations and land-based activities
                could be forced to abandon the inundated areas.              The productivity of
                agricultural lands adjacent to the coast could be threatened, and the economic
                and social culture of small communities dependent upon fishing and related
                activities could be severely damaged. As the resources and uses of the coastal
                area are affected, secondary social and economic impacts, may be felt both
                locally and nationally. Delicate ecosystem balances could be upset, threatening
                fisheries, wildlife, and other resources important to mankind.

                     Finally, there is the question of "winners" and "losers."           Changes in
                .rainfall and temperature would affect the ability of particular regions to
                exploit natural resources. Some would win and some would lose, and additional
                analysis of this issue is necessary. In the case of sea level rise, however,
                it is difficult to see how there could be any winners at the national level.


                ADAPTIVE OPTIONS

                     In light of these problems,        nations should immediately assess the
                implications of sea level rise and develop site-specific strategies for adapting
                to them.  Possible strategies include:      (1) defending a site to maintain its
                existing uses; (2) adapting in place by modifying structures and various
                activities to accommodate rising seas;        (3) retreating landward, spending
                resources on relocation rather than on coastal defenses; and (4) employing
                temporary solutions until escalating economic, social, aind resource costs
                require a different approach, at which time one of the three previous options
                can be implemented. (The "preventive option" of controlling greenhouse gas

                                                        10





































































                                          let
           Figure 6.   Urban flooding, such as    the 1954 surge in  Providence,  Rhode Island
           (USA), would become more frequent is the sea     level rises.


           emissions is outside the scope of this report but      is the primary  focus of two
           of the other subgroups of Working Group III.) Although national        policies may
           encourage one of these approaches, the actual response and its implementation
           will often be a local decision.

           Types of Adaptive Options

                 The potential responses to sea level rise fall into three basic categories:
           (1) technical, engineering, and structural responses to keep the sea back; (2)






             natural or ecological responses to replace lost or damaged resources; and (3)
             nonstructural options, which focus on modifying the human uses of coastal lands
             and resources. In most situations, the actual response would be a,combination
             of these three categories.

             Jechnical, Engineering, and Structural Responses

                   These responses include construction of seawalls, breakwaters,          dikes,
             levees, tidal barriers, floodgates, and bulkheads; beach nourishment; raising
             of coastal land by filling; and stimulation of siltation in deltaic areas. Some
             of these responses could be very costly and could resullt in significant
             environmental impacts. However, they can be extremely effective at protecting
             existing land and structures (Figures 7 through 16). These measures are well
             established, have evolved over several centuries, and are colitinuously refined
             and improved.

                  In addition to primary protective works, ancillary engineering works may
             be needed to reduce adverse effects. For example, lands currently drained by
             gravity may require pumping; and channels may need additional dredging to remove
             silt in order to maintain the preexisting flow of freshwater..       To counteract
             saltwater intrusion, reservoirs may be necessary to augment 11ow flows.

             Natural, Biological, and Ecological Options

                  These options can mitigate the impacts of rising sea level by replacing
             lost resources or by developing alternative habitat areas that could serve
             similar ecological functions.     Options include creating wetlands and dunes,
             stabilizing dunes by planting vegetation, and planting mangroves. Finally, the
             productivity associated with coastal habitat losses could be replaced through
             aquaculture to compensate for losses in particular fisheries, or to maintain
             biodiversity through preservation of endangered species and genetic resourcesi

             Nonstructural Options

                  The simplest approach is to allow coastal resources and land uses to
             naturally respond to the changing conditions.           If complIete inaction is
             unacceptable, nonstructural options can help reduce the risk to property and the
             environment by removing structures and directing populations away from
             vulnerable areas (Figure 17). Resettlement can be encouraged by regulatory and
             legal measures that (1) require structures to be removed,             (2) prohibit
             rebuilding of structures under special circumstances (e.g., after significant
             storm damage), (3) prohibit private construction of bulkheads, or (4) establish
             restrictions on new development through zoning or other means to reduce
             population concentrations. The fourth approach may be particularly useful; in
             many coastal regions it can be justified by existing erosion problems alone.

                  The process of a gradual. retreat from areas threatened by sea level rise'
             may req uire new institutional arrangements to coordinate various levels of
             governmental decis.ion making. It wil-1 also require public education'to increase
             awareness for all sectors of society about both the impacts of sea level rise
             and the implications of various adaptive responses.        Additional research is
             necessary to develop more effective options.



                                                     12










































                           '.4
































                              Ak





                                                                           40







          Figure 7.  (A,B) Manual construction of seawalls to protect Male, capital of
          the Maldives.    In the background of (B),     a Japanese engineering firm
          manufactures tetrapods and builds a new breakwater (C).

                                               13






























                                                                     . .... . .. ...














                                                                  


















              Figure 8. Tidal barrier in Japan.


              Factors Influencing the Choice of Adaptive Options

                   While general analyses of response options for various scenarios can be
              helpful, the actual choices will be site-specific. The following factors must
              be considered for any given coastal, area: the physiography of the area and its
              known response to tectonic and isostatic processes; the population density and
              its social and economic characteristics; the type and quality of development -
              - e.g., industrial,residential, or agricultural; other ecological attributes
              and the value of the affected area;the ability of existing institutional
              arrangements to plan and implement an appropriate response; the financial
              ability and technological resources required to implement the chosen response;

                                                      14
 













                                                       -es_lm


























                                          V5

                                                                          Figure 9. Shanghai has adap
                                                                          by installing sliding gates
                                                                         doorways and other openings









             A






                                                                                    'Mown=






                                                                       W


                                                                                 it







             B














                                                      r!


                                    OW









             Figure 10. (A) Groins trap sand moving along the shore. (B) Breakwaters limit
             the erosive power of waves.

                                                  16













                                                AWAiO










          Figure 11.
          Timber bulkhead.    W-


















              IN






                                                                         INQ
                              0









                                                  %







          Figure 12. Fencing to stabilize dunes.

                                                17





































                                     wf



                                 alw
                                        !t- -7                              O"A k
                                                      Jt













                          -.molls    ppp
                                          mom










          Figure  13,  Al ong the Dutch coast@, seasonal bu,ildings.1hat are dismantled at the,
          end of  summer are common.

                                                   18





























                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     @7-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 WAOI
                                                                                                                                                                          Ole
                                                                                                                                -owl





                                                  Figure 14.                                                     Rubbl e                             consisting                                               of stone, demolished building and highways, and
                                                  even Junked                                                    cars, are often used to stop erosion, though the aesthetics vary.



                                                                                                       iV


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ile











                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           d*1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0






                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Tft




                                                  Figure 15.                                                     This home is protected by a                                                                                                                           stone revetment,                                                                        wire baskets filled
                                                  with stones, and sandbags.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      19











           A






                                                        Mk


                                                               N1011
                                                    G














                                               AZ,,

























                                         4















                                                       WOO.








             Figure 16.  Although  elevating structures on stilts diminishes  flood damages,
             it can have  adverse aesthetic impacts on  a recreational beach as seen in (A)
             Ocean City, Maryland, and (B) Grand Isle, Louisiana (USA).

                                                   20










      A











         N-
                                                                                            AO




                                                                  41
                                                                4-



                                                                oil


                                                                '4k




                                                                                        77.7



















                                  *4                           Jim"











                                                                               4;







                                                                                           -%x





           Figure 17.  Houses are set back from  the shore along the coasts of (A) Estonia,
           and (B) much of India.
                                           t












                                                  21







             and the secondary social, economic, and environmental impacts of the chosen
             response. All of these factors, which can be quantified or qualitatively
             described, must also be viewed in the context of the existing financial and
             political situation.

             Constraints on Response Capabilities

                   Implementation of any response will require support from both the policy-
             making level of the government and the affected populations.      Lack of support
             by decisionmakers can result from a lack of understanding of the impacts of sea
             level rise and the costs of various types of options. Decisionmakers may also
             rank other national or regional problems as having a greater priority.          The
             effective implementation of a chosen option will also require the coordinated
             efforts of a variety of public and private institutions.

                   Responses will face a number of constraints. Financing may be a critical
             problem,   particularly where structural      options are chosen.        Even for
             nonstructural options, such as limited retreat, the economic dislocations may
             sometimes be unacceptable to policymakers. Finally, many responses will face
             legal, environmental, and cultural constraints.

             Recommendations for Short-Term Actions

               1.  The first course of action must be to heighten awareness of sea level rise
                   and its potential impacts for governments and citizens flike. While many
                   uncertainties exist, a long-term vision of potential problems should be
                   incorporated into public and private decision making.      Planning efforts
                   must be flexible to allow future accommodation to changing conditions and
                   to avoid aggravating existing problems.

               2.  Governments should support continued research into the causes of climate
                   change and the likely effect and timing of sea level rise and its impacts.
                   Establishment of a comprehensive data base, including data and information
                   on tides, coastal currents, waves, storm surges, areas vulnerable to
                   erosion and flooding, and other resources at risk, will provide the
                   knowledge necessary for selecting the most cost-effective response for any
                   given situation.

               3.  Because of the global implications of climate change, effective mechanisms
                   for information exchange and technology transfer among ill nations should
                   be devel oped.   Both between and within countries, special technical
                   assistance should be offered to all levels of government.

               4.  International funding mechanisms to support response activities should be
                   developed.

               5.  Governments should implement education and public awareness programs to
                   prepare the population at large to accept the necessary controls and
                   associated trade-offs, including reducing population density in the coastal
                   zone.








                                                     22









        ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS

             Most of the fish, shellfish, and sea turtles of the world depend on sandy
        beaches, fertile coastal wetlands, marshes, swamps, submerged aquatic vegetation
        or unpolluted estuaries for parts of their lifetimes, as do many types of birds
        and mammals found in the coastal zone.         These areas have high recreational,
        cultural, and aesthetic values for many people.         Protecting dryland from sea
        level rise, however, could have adverse impacts on many of these resources.
        This section divides those impacts into three          categories: the open coast,
        wetlands, and water quality.

        Open Coast

             Responses along the open coast can, in turn, be broadly divided into three
        types:   hard structures, soft responses, and allowing shores to retreat.           The
        last option (no action) has been addressed by IPCC Working Group II and is
        outside the scope of this report.

             Hard structural approaches can be divided into (1) seawalls and other
        measures that physically hold back the sea, and (2) groins, which alter the
        deposition of sand. The primary purpose of seawalls is to protect inland areas
        from storm damage and inundation without regard to the beach itself.              If a
        seawall is placed between development and an eroding shore, eventually the beach
        wi 11 erode up to the seawal 1 ; some sci enti sts al so bel i eve that such structures
        can accelerate erosion. Consequently, a major impact of seawalls is that beach
        is eventually lost (Figure 18), removing important habitat for shorebirds, sea
        turtles, and other species.     By contrast, groins trap sediment moving along the
        shore. However, protection of one area is generally at the expense of increased
        erosion downdrift from the area protected.         Because these structures do not
        increase the total sand available to beaches and barrier islands, their long-
        term impact is primarily to geographically shift the erosion, not to eliminate
        it.

             The most common soft engineering approach is beach nourishment, which
        involves dredging sand from back bays, navigation channels, or offshore -- or
        excavating material from a land-based source -- and placing it on the beach
        (Figure 19).        Because beach ecosystems are already adapted to annual
        erosion/accretion cycles, the placement of sand onto the beach generally has
        negligible impacts on beach ecosystems.           By contrast, dredging bays can
        seriously disrupt shallow-water ecosystems and wetland habitats, a problem that
        has already led some nations to effectively stop this practice, except as part
        of navigation projects. Although the environmental impacts of dredging offshore
        deposits are generally less severe, care must be taken to avoid interference
        with coral reefs and 'life in the nearshore zone or altering wave refraction,
        which can cause previously stable shores to erode.

        Wetlands (swamps, marshes, sea grasses, and shallow waters)

             The impacts of adaptive strategies on wetlands can be broadly divided into
        deltaic and other wetland ecosystems.        In deltaic areas, people might build
        dikes along rivers in response to increased river flooding due to sea level
        rise.   Unfortunately, the resulting "channel ization" of rivers would prevent
        annual river floods from providing the sediment and nutrients needed to keep
        agricultural lands fertile and to enable deltas to keep pace with sea level rise

                                                  23















































                                                    iL      4


            Figure 18.   Although  seawalls can protect property, the beach is eventually
            lost, as seen in Galveston, Texas (USA).








                                                               -00














                                   zjj





            Figure 19.   While expensive, beach nourishment has already been employed at
            Copacabana Beach, Brazil, and other areas with substantial tourism.


                                                  24







          and subsidence of the land.    Although dikes protect against flooding in the
          short run, their long-term impact can be to increase the loss of wetlands and
          dryland due to sea level rise, and to decreasing the fertility of farmland. If
          dams are built to address water management problems resulting from climate
          change, the problem could be further compounded as sediments and nutrients are
          trapped upstream (Figure 20).

               Protecting dryland from inundation would also contribute to the loss of
          nondeltaic wetlands. As sea level rises, most wetland ecosystems could migrate
          inland if human activities did not interfere.      Bulkheads block the landward
          migration of wetlands as sea level rises, decreasing wetland area in the short
          run and eliminating it in the long run (Figure 21).

               The loss of both deltaic and nondeltaic wetlands would threaten coastal
          fisheries. About two-thirds of the fish caught for human consumption depend on
          coastal wetlands for at least part of their life cycles; in some areas, this is
          true for nearly all species.      The loss of coastal wetlands would greatly
          diminish these fisheries.   In many nations, coastal populations depend on these
          fish for subsistence. Because a hectare of wetlands often can provide more food
          than a hectare of cultivated farmland, even nations with insufficient arable
          .land might sometimes be better advised to allow farmland to be inundated as sea
          level rises.    The relative productivity of farmland and wetland should be
          determined before the decision is made to protect farmland from inundation.

               A final response to sea level rise is the creation of marshes and swamps
          to replace those that are inundated.        Such creation, however, can upset
          preexisting habitats. If the wetlands are created by filling shallow waters,
          or by excavating terrestrial ecosystems, this response may create one type of
          habitat at the expense of another. New management approaches may be required
          to consider these trade-offs.

          Water Quality

               Response strategies can increase the salinity of estuaries and aquifers,
          and can cause other pollution problems as well.     Perhaps most important, the
          pumping of water from areas protected with dikes would increase saltwater
          intrusion into groundwater.     Moreover, if warmer temperatures or droughts
          require increased diversion of water for agricultural,         res i dent i al , and
          industrial uses, saltwater would migrate upstream in estuaries. This would, in
          turn, modify the circulation within the estuary, possibly affecting flocculation
          and sediment transport.

               Enclosure could increase other water pollution problems by decreasing
          flushing. To prevent flooding, areas may be protected with tidal barriers. As
          sea level rises, these barriers would be closed more frequently.   Initially they
          might be closed at every high tide, and eventually during all but low tide.
          Reducing tidal flushing would increase the concentrations of pollutants,
          endangering fish, wildlife, and adjacent water tables, and possibly creating
          health problems.     The resulting changes in water circulation and other
          properties, such as temperature and salinity, may also harm fisheries.





                                                  25





























                                                                             '410







                               4





                                                                         Ai0,00-*OW,k













             Figure 20.   Dams and  flood control  levees block the  supply of  sediment to
             wetlands, resulting in their gradual submersion as seen in Louisiana, United
             States.

















             Figure 21. Bulkheads prevent wetlands from migrating inland as sea level rises.

                                                   26








         SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPLICATIONS

              To a large degree, human existence takes place within a particular social
         and cultural framework. Although the lifestyles of one society may seem alien
         to another, all cultures should be respected, preserved, and nurtured. While
         the industrial nations would face similar physical and environmental impacts
         from sea level rise, it is primarily in the developing world -- particularly
         small island nations -- where societies and cultures themselves might be
         threatened.

              Several examples were provided by the representatives from Western Africa,
         where there is considerable concern over a wide range of issues related to
         success or failure in dealing with sea level rise and other impacts of a
         changing global climate.  In some circumstances, there may be a need to relocate
         people, or even entire communities.    This would be a traumatic social process
         affecting all social strata and cultures, although in terms of populations at
         risk, the most affected may be the poor families.      Undertaking such a social
         reconstruction would require numerous steps -- from collecting appropriate data
         for understanding the implications, to managing a resettlement program and
         securing the necessary funding.     Doing so must involve understanding of the
         physical, social, cultural, and occupational environment of the affected
         population, so as to minimize wholesale dislocation and to facilitate the
         creation of an environment equivalent to the one being displaced.

              The question of resettlement, while exerting major financial demands, also
         seriously stresses the social and cultural norms of the community being
         relocated.   The loss of traditional environments that sustain economic and
         cultural bases and provide both subsistence and recreational needs could disrupt
         family life and create social instability. This, in turn, would have negative
         psychological impacts on entire communities, especially on the young, and give
         rise to a number of social evils, including unemployment and drug abuse, with
         a devastating social cost to many communities.

              Information is being amassed on a worldwide scale from which social,
         cul tural , economi c, and envi ronmental impl i cati ons can be deri ved for devel opi ng
         countries. An assessment must be made to determine which populations are most
         at risk.    Thus far, dozens of developing countries with highly populated
         lowlands have been identified as being vulnerable.

              The social aspects associated with sea level rise and its consequences
         could also be severe in the developed world,          particularly for certain
         subcultures that depend on fishing and other coastal resources. Moreover, the
         loss of infrastructure, commercial, and community support systems could be
         astronomically expensive as a result of the high value of the installations.
         The loss of high-amenity residential areas and of commercial and industrial
         activities, and the displacement of skills, are all         instances of severe
         community loss and replication of expensive investment.     Adaptive options can
         be constrained by high property values in a free market system and the ability
         of the population to afford legal action in pursuit of compensation. Apart from
         these exceptions, the negative aspects of sea level rise are applicable on a
         global scale,   the only real differential being ability to cope in financial
         and/or human resource terms. This difference reinforces the need to focus
         international attention and assistance on those nations least able to cope with
         global warming.

                                                 27







                   The experience of Venice, Italy, illustrates the response to the 25 cm
              relative sea level rise that has occurred over the past 80 years, which is
              analogous to the rise facing most of the world in the next 50 years.              The
              experience gained there with respect to the social and cultural aspects of
              responding to sea level rise will have indispensable value for others, such as
              the West African countries, in the future.

                   Educating the populace is fundamental to the success of any future
              response.   Informing everyone about the impacts of sea level rise and global
              climate change -- from children to political decisionmakers -- is essential.
              Only then are wise policy decisions possible.

                   There is an urgent need to implement disaster relief measures to respond
              to immediate and sudden sea level rise-induced catastrophes, such as storm
              surges and increased hurricane frequency. Postdisaster strategies should form
              an integral   part of disaster relief strategies.           Nevertheless, disaster
              avoidance is vastly preferable to disaster mitigation, and prior expenditure on
              avoidance measures could well alleviate human misery and show substantial
              economic benefits. Legislation as an economic and immediately available option
              is recommended to reduce future expenditures on defending lowlands or abandoning
              them. Sea level rise is a long-term phenomenon; legislation -- e.g. restricting
              the occupation and development of areas at risk -- could produce rich dividends
              in the decades to come.

                   Long-term, research-based, multifaceted educational response strategies in
              formal  and   informal   settings therefore constitute an         urgent priority.
              International and interdisciplinary in scope, these programs should target the
              young who are the future managers of the planet and the political decisionmakers
              who control the important tools of funding and resource allocation.          Programs
              that train teachers to train students should be given preference, and all
              communication modes should be involved.       Developed and developing countries
              should mobilize fully to cooperate in providing the material and human resources
              necessary to the success of these programs.


              LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS

                   The legal and institutional implications of global warming and sea level
              rise can be divided into two categories: international and national.

              International

                   The three major internati 'onal issues that the conference identified are (1)
              the need to use principles of international law, (2) the potential problems for
              marine boundaries, and (3) the use of the precautionary principle.

                   It  is   important    to  use   established    principles   of    international
              environmental law, including those of the Stockholm Declaration and the World
              Commission on Environment and Development Report.          An international legal
              framework for cooperative response should be established.         Such a framework
              (whether global, regional, or subregional) could use existing institutions or
              establish new institutions.     In either case, it should specifically obligate
              nations to cooperate in their response to the problems posed by sea level rise


                                                    1 28







         or climate change and should include provisions for financing, assistance to
         developing countries, and transfer of the appropriate technology.

              A coordinated approach to the problem of changing maritime boundaries
         resulting from sea level rise is necessary.      Movements of low-water mark and
         disappearance of features used as base points will move the outer limits of
         maritime zones -- namely, territorial sea, contiguous zone, and economic zone
         (i.e., exclusive economic zone, exclusive fishing zone and, in some cases,
         Continental Shelf).    Such an approach should address the problems posed by the
         complete disappearance of islands, which could alter maritime zones, as well as
         changes to other water-related boundaries.

              Finally, the precautionary principle (or the principle of precautionary
         action) calling for reduction and/or prevention of significant environmental
         impacts, even in the absence of conclusive evidence or damage, should be
         considered and incorporated, as appropriate, into international agreements.

         National

              The workshop examined three national issues. First, there will be a need
         for coordinated use and improvement of structures, institutions, laws, and
         organizations (public and private) that already exist at national, state, or
         local levels and that address the issues raised by sea level rise and climate
         change.   Second, it will be necessary to establish, develop, and/or improve
         systems of integrated resource management for coastal zones and related areas.
         Such  a   management   system   should   address  conservation    and   sustainable
         development, balance of public/private rights and boundaries, compensation
         frameworks, financing of responses, and insurance and other financial
         incentives.

              Finally, there is a need for research on, and collection of, national laws
         as well as comparative studies to identify legal models that nations might wish
         to use in developing their legal responses to the problems posed by sea level
         rise and climate change.


         ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

              From an economic and financial perspective, the problem of responding to
         future sea level rise is one of long-term investment decisions in the face of
         uncertainty.   Future impacts will depend on human responses: that is, on the
         choice of investment options.     Investment is a form of deferred gratification
         in which the choice is made to pay a price now to obtain future benefits.
         Because resources (such as natural resources, human skills and effort, and
         capital facilities and equipment) are limited, choices about trade-offs are
         unavoidable. Any choice necessarily precludes the use of those resources for
         other desirable ends.

              A related economic problem concerns the distribution of costs and benefits
         among people and across generations.      This is the question of who pays, who
         benefits, and in what proportions.      This is where the issue of winners and
         losers arises. Very little attention has been given to this issue, but it must
         be recognized as important in attempts to fashion institutional responses.


                                                 29







                   People have a great talent for adjusting to change, and their adjustments
              are often most effective when implemented gradually.     Because sea level rise,
              its resulting impacts, and the appropriate responses will vary widely across
              locales, decisionmakers closest to the facts are likely to devise the most
              appropriate incremental  responses.  In a prescriptive sense, this view tends to
              be non-interventionist  and favors letting things sort themselves out as the
              facts emerge.

                   For IPCC purposes, however, the value of cooperative study and planning,
              and the responsibility   of governments and other collective institutions to
              anticipate and develop effective responses, should be highlighted. Collective
              intervention may be essential when common property is involved and when
              decisionmakers ignore the effects of their choices on others.       Effects that
              cross generations, property lines, or national frontiers arc! obvious examples.
              In addition, the lack of incentives for private investment in information
              virtually ensures that without governmental sponsorship, too little will be
              spent on research and dissemination of information.

              Analytic Tools

                   Methods are being developed to help decisionmakers clarify the relative
              cost-effectiveness of potential responses even in the face of enormous
              uncertainty. If sufficient resources are available, the appropriate criterion
              for ranking potential responses is the "expected present value of net benefits."
              This is just the sum of the future benefits of a response option, minus
              associated costs, weighted by their likelihood of being realized, and
              "discounted" to present value terms. It depends upon (1) the distribution of
              subjective probability judgments about future sea level rise, (2) the rate at
              which future costs and benefits are "discounted" for comparison with present
              values, and (3) the monetary, environmental, social, and cultural cost incurred
              by various possible responses.      Looking at expectations of when critical
              thresholds might be crossed allows one to consider the timing and level of
              effort simultaneously with the overall direction the response should take.

                   "Risk-cost analysis" is a useful framework for making decisions about
              adaptive options. This approach combines information on natural sources of risk
              and uncertainty -- i.e., storm surge, wave height, and mean sea level -- with
              estimates of their physical and economic effects and allows available
              information to be incorporated in a model         to estimate! the probability
              distribution of total costs associated with each adaptive option.

                   The modeling approach can be especially useful in identifying areas where
              additional scientific effort would yield the greatest pa,yoff in terms of
              improving decisions. The value of narrowing current uncertainties, particularly
              about the rate and magnitude of sea level rise, can then be investigated using
              sensitivity analysis.

                   An additional strength of applying such methods is the emphasis on residual
              risks that remain regardless of the adaptive option. This information can help
              decisionmakers to avoid choosing options such as an underdesigned dike which
              could leave a protected area vulnerable to a catastrophe.

                   An important limitation of this evaluation process is that the adverse
              effects of sea level rise and the costs of adaptive opt-ions may occur at

                                                     30







         different times.    For monetary values, discounting is an appropriate tool to
         compare future costs with current costs.      Higher discount rates depress the
         estimated cost of future sea level impacts and of future responses.           Lower
         discount rates make them appear larger. Although it makes good economic sense
         to apply some discount rate to future values, this involves strong judgments
         about the preferences of society and encounters serious ethical complications
         when inter-generational effects are at stake.

               In assessing the cost of retreat from sea level rise, some automatic
         responses to the risks will reduce the cost of retreat. For example, the demand
         for risky shoreside property may decline, leading to reduced property values and
         thus lowering the loss from abandonment.     The potential for market mechanisms
         to decrease the adverse economic and environmental impacts warrants further
         exploration.    Because market responses will be influenced by other policies
         (e.g., the definition of property rights, the availability of subsidized
         insurance), exploring their operation will uncover related and important policy
         questions that may not presently be part of the climate change dialogue.

               Care must be taken to avoid   imposing our current understanding (or lack
         thereof) of the effects of climate change on the decisionmakers of the future.
         We need to begin to understand now the range of options that might be considered
         so that the necessary funding and institutional mechanisms can be prepared and
         the correct signals can be sent to  the relevant institutions. Future decisions
         will nevertheless be made based on  future information, and a recognition of the
         learning process must be incorporated into current activity. The same ranking
         criteria applied to assessing the relative merits of various possible responses
         can be used to identify the types of information that would be most valuable for
         making those future decisions.

         Financial and Strategic Planning

               The impacts of climate change on coastal areas will not fall evenly across
         nations. There will be winners and losers, in both relative and absolute terms.
         It is expected that several developed countries will be among the winners
         (through economic gains made possible by activities that release greenhouse
         gases), while some of the developing nations will be the heaviest losers. Many
         of the developing nations will have insufficient financial and technical
         resources available for the most desirable adaptive options.              In such
         circumstances, assistance from industrialized nations may be justified.         The
         financial burden for assisting developing nations may be very high; it is
         important to begin collecting information on the magnitude, timing, and duration
         of this assistance and its related costs.

               With the present uncertainty over the likely coastal effects of climate
         change, implementing expensive adaptive strategies now would be inappropriate.
         Emphasis in funding arrangements may be more constructively placed on
         facilitating the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions.         Again, however,
         virtually nothing is known about these relative costs.      The value of further
         research and improved knowledge must be stressed.            Early international
         assistance may be most valuable for activities that will improve the
         preparedness and ability of countries to adapt to climate change if it occurs,
         and that will help even if sea level rise is negligible.



                                                 31







                     At a local level it may be useful to break down the issues into manageable
               components through a process of "strategic planning."             The steps of such
               strategic planning include a situation audit (data base); an analysis of the
               strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; development of mission
               statements based on the outcome of the previous steps; and, finally, an
               implementation strategy.

                     To address the immediate problems of rising relative sea level in Louisiana
               (USA), for instance, mission statements and implementation strategies focused
               on data base collection, improved communications, education, lobbying and
               funding.     To help facilitate these tasks,          local  governments organized,
               recruited, and mobilized volunteers, who formed a grass-roots coalition. While
               education of the youth was taking place in the school system, the coalition
               initiated programs to improve communication, develop a mutual support system,
               educate adults and communicate with political decisionmakers.

                     The driving force behind the subsequent passage of a coordination and
               funding mechanism was education. To lobby effectively, it is important to have
               a broad-based, educated population making similar demands of politicians. The
               nature of the funding mechanism itself is instructive in that it draws its
               financial resources from a tax on one of the problem's several causes:               the
               extraction of petroleum.


               WESTERN AFRICA

                     Owing to the geological evolution of the Western Africa region, the
               present-day coasts are mostly low plains, surf beaten, sandy, and, in many
               places, subsiding. Most of the large sedimentary basins that make up the region
               are separated by cratons that are outcrops of the Precambrian basement; these
               constitute the few natural bulkheads in the region.           There are considerable
               stretches of wetlands, particularly mangroves.

                     As a result of the present geomorphology and coastal activities, marine
               erosion and flooding are prevalent along much of the coastline.                   These
               conditions are causing great ecological damage,           and they are disrupting
               settlements and socioeconomic structures and activities, many of which are
               located on or near the coast.

                     The protective measures applied at present in the region are very
               inadequate when compared to the severity of the problem. If' the predicted sea
               level rise occurs, most low-lying areas would be inundated; this would virtually
               cripple most economic and social activities. Surface water and groundwater, as
               well as the soil, flora, and fauna of the region, would be profoundly affected
               as a result of increased salinity and added sediment and pollutant loads. The
               fledgling tourist industry could be decimated.

                     Rising temperature and reductions in rainfall would mean an increased
               incidence of heat-related diseases and a drastic reduction in the well-being of
               people, livestock, and crops. Hunger and disease would be prevalent and would
               increase the present level of human misery.

                     Sea level rise would increase the need to protect heavily developed areas
               with high capital values where relocation is not a reasonable option. But the

                                                         32







         excessive costs and technical requirements of some of the proposed adaptive
         options to protect such locations are far beyond what the region can afford.
         Thus, the region will require effective low-cost, low-technology measures. Such
         adaptive options must minimize the dislocation of social and community
         structures, avoid interfering with cultural attitudes, and conform with
         geotechnical and other environmental considerations.

               Outside highly urbanized centers, existing populations should be resettled
         and setback lines for any new development on the coast should be enforced.
         Where coasts are deemed highly vulnerable, new development must be totally
         banned. Where new development becomes imperative, appropriate design criteria
         should be adopted to cope with the predicted rise of sea level as well as
         increased temperature.    Converting coastal lands to forest would dampen wave
         energy as well as provide relief from increased heat.

               Other adjustments would involve the protection of arable land, improved
         management of water resources, introduction of new agro-technology, controlled
         land-use policies, maintenance of food reserves, and the introduction of
         disaster relief measures.

               For protecting arable lands, some of the low-cost, low-technology measures
         mentioned above could be applicable. Improved water management techniques could
         involve building dams (after an environmental impact assessment), aqueducts,
         reservoirs, and irrigation systems, and diverting rivers to husband freshwater.
         The adoption of new agro-technology should introduce more salt- and heat-
         tolerant crops, development of adaptive irrigation systems for reducing salinity
         stress, and conversion of flooded agricultural land for aquatic uses, such as
         mariculture.

               Although the region is far from being self-sufficient in addressing its
         present needs, it will be necessary to stockpile food and institutionalize other
         disaster relief measures to cope with the emergencies that may arise from sudden
         flooding or drought.

               Other adaptive options include setting up environmental monitoring (in
         particular tidal gauges) and early warning systems, preparing and providing
         flood vulnerability and new land-use maps for coastal areas, and above all,
         providing public education and information. This last option requires that more
         information be gathered, distributed, and understood.

               Public information and education should emphasize the severity of the
         anticipated impacts from increased atmospheric temperatures and sea level rise,
         and prepare the public for some of the protective, preventive, or adaptive
         measures that may be necessary.

               The application of most of the adaptive options makes it important that
         such propisals be embodied in coordinated and enforceable urban and regional
         development plans. Countries in the region should enact comprehensive coastal
         zone management policies.    The United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP)
         Regional Seas Programme for the West and Central African Region provides a
         platform for discussing and institutionalizing such a regional plan.        It is
         hoped that governments in the region, while pursuing policy options at the
         national level, will appreciate more than ever the distinct advantages of a
         regional approach to the problems associated with global warming.

                                                 33







                     In the meantime, data banks of relevant information (providing for
               information exchange and transfer) need to be created.        There i s also a need
               for developing a regional climate change scenario as well as the increased
               involvement of regional scientists in global climate-related programs (e.g.,
               World Ocean Circulation Experiment, Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere
               Program, World Climate Research Program).

                    The above recommendations can be brought to fruition only through sustained
               funding by United Nations organizations, potential donor agencies, and national
               governments.


               NORTHERN MEDITERRANEAN AND BLACK SEA

                    The coasts of the Northern Mediterranean region have varied topography and
               land use. Land use is most intensive in France, Italy, eastern Spain, and parts
               of Greece; it is moderate in Yugoslavia, and light in Turkey. The major uses
               are summer recreation, maritime cities, harbors, agricultural activities,
               lagoonal fishing, and agriculture.      With the exception of Turkey, national
               populations are not likely to increase significantly, although populations in
               coastal zones may grow somewhat.

               Areas of High Priority and Concern at Risk From Sea Level Rise

                    The following types of areas are most likely to be damaged by a rise in sea
               level:    (1) towns and cities by the sea;          (2) harbors;    (3)   industrial
               installations built on lowlands and lagoonal areas; (4) tourist beaches; (5)
               pleasure harbors and marinas; (6) coastal "hard" protection works (jetties,
               groins, seawalls, etc.); (7) roads, railways, airports by the coast; (8)
               lagoonal fishing (due to higher water and salinity levels); (9) coastal sand
               barriers and barrier islands; (10) reclaimed lands, usually at sea level, and
               associated irrigation systems; (11) desalination facilities; and (12) coastal
               archaeological sites.

                    The present levels of protection of these areas vary. Although there are
               stretches of low coast at the margins of agricultural land that are still in a
               natural state, defenses against storm wave attack are found throughout the
               region, in the form of bulkheads, seawalls, groins, and submerged reefs.

                    However, in many areas the level of     protection is inadequate to prevent
               coastline retreat.   This problem is particularly evident in areas where dams
               have blocked the sediment that rivers would have discharged into littoral
               systems.   Erosion is also caused by the interference of fixed shoreline
               structures, in such places as the Po Delta, and by acceleratE!d land subsidence.
               Other problems include the destruction of dunes for construction and the
               conversion of wetlands to agricultural and urban areas.

                   A special situation occurs in the Venice area, where concern for recurring
               risk of storm surge flooding has involved scientific, engineering, and political
               considerations. Plans for defending the lagoon and safeguarding the historical
               city are under way.     A tidal barrier designed under government mandate is
               expected to be completed by 1997.      The project design explicitly considers
               global warming: as sea level rises, the gates will simply have to be closed more
               frequently.

                                                       34







          Impacts of Sea Level Rise

                Even the rise of 10 to 25 cm predicted for the year 2030 would magnify the
          impact of storm waves and surges and the extent of inland flooding during high
          tides, especially in those areas with no current works to protect against
          erosion and flooding.     The impact on existing hard structures that protect
          infrastructures (cities, industrial establishments, communications) would be
          minimal in most cases, as they are built to accommodate exceptionally high water
          levels during storms.       However, if the frequency of exceptional events
          increases, in many cases the structures would need to be raised.

                A more significant impact is to be expected on water and salinity levels
          in canals, estuaries, and lagoons, with an increased frequency of flooding near
          the coast and farther inland. In lagoons, even a small rise in sea level would
          affect the ecosystems of open waters and marshlands, and particularly, the
          management of fisheries and agriculture. Moreover, the upstream migration of
          salt wedges would invade agricultural soils and groundwater, threatening the
          quality of irrigation water.

                A rise greater than 30 cm would magnify these impacts, to the extent that
          seafront land uses would have to shift inland or would have to be protected more
          extensively (which would require additional protective walls, drainage systems,
          and elevation of roads, railways, and other infrastructure).        The impacts are
          likely to be the least in more sheltered areas that have less attack by waves
          (e.g., Yugoslavia, Northern Greece, Albania, and Southern Turkey).

          Adaptive Strategies

                Technical capabilities and financial resources for structural responses to
          sea level rise will continue to be adequate in Italy, France, Spain, and Greece.
          In the other countries, this capability will depend on the improvement of
          current economic difficulties.

                Responses to sea level rise would involve two levels of action: the near
          term, while sea level is still rising fairly slowly, and the long run, when
          substantial acceleration is possible.        In the near term, there will be a
          continuation of the present situation, perhaps with a moderate strengthening of
          present defenses, and the addition of new ones in some areas.

                However, site-specific adaptations have to be considered wherever
          protection of a particular land use is no longer cost-effective -- e.g. some sea
          resorts and installations at seafront settlements. Such adaptations imply the
          shifting of the land uses -- e.g., the abandonment of roads, buildings,
          industries, and small 'harbors and the return of some reclaimed lands to the
          original   lagoonal   state,  because fishing and aquaculture would be more
          profitable than grain cultivation on saline soils.

                In the long run, current land use practices would become untenable in an
          increasing number of areas. For land uses on low coastlines, the main options
          are planned adjustment by means of coastal planning and imposition of
          guidelines, or planned retreat of the more exposed areas (mainly deltas) that
          are not too developed or heavily populated. Nevertheless, in the many isolated
          fishing villages at the bottoms of cliffs in Turkey, and wherever the physical


                                                   35






             nature of the coastline leaves little room for retreat, the policy of hard
             defenses will have to be continued.

                  Social acceptability is unlikely to be a major barrier to implementing
             adaptive responses. Because the changes would be largely confined to specific
             localities, they would be affordable at the national level. In cases where
             changes are imposed by sudden catastrophes, the public would often demand
             immediate responsive action.    When they occur gradually, there would be ample
             time for the implications of the response options to be explained to the public.

             Recommendations for Priority Action

                  A number of immediate actions seem to be appropriate:

                  1.     Increase the awareness   of the implications of sea level rise for
                         coastal zone uses and management, especially the awareness of
                         decisionmakers and politicians.      For example, conduct national
                         seminars and workshops using maximum (though appropriately guided)
                         media exposure with international support.

                  2.     Identify and further evaluate areas at risk, considering technical
                         evaluation of the impacts and costs and implications of various
                         options.  Incorporate sea level rise scenarios into all engineering
                         coastal protection projects.

                  3.     Create, strengthen, or streamline institutions that can carry out
                         the necessary research and further the legal processes by which
                         governments can implement policy choices and facil-itate coastal zone
                         management in the next decades. In most Mediterranean countries,
                         create study centers on the hazards of climate change at the
                         interministerial level to advise the government on impacts,
                         responses, and policies.


            SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN

                  Although  the   Southern   Mediterranean   is  presented   separately,    the
            Mediterranean is one region with a common      set  of sea level rise problems.
            Nevertheless, population patterns and growth will create different challenges
            for the northern and southern coasts. While    the population along the northern
            Mediterranean coast is fairly stable, the       southern Mediterranean coast is
            experiencing rapid population growth confined to a very narrow zone of usable
            land. New urban areas are developing, and existing ones are expanding.

                  The interrelationship between projected problems due to sea level rise and
            problems due to rapid population growth in the limited coastal zone area of
            North Africa should emphasized. More than 50 percent of the population in this
            area lives within 50 kilometers of the shore, and the coastal zone is expected
            to experience significant urban growth over the next 50 years.

                  Adaptive options for the northern Mediterranean will concentrate on the
            preservation of an existing and entrenched infrastructure that is prot,ecting
            heavily urbanized areas.      By contrast, in the southern Mediterranean, the
            adaptive options may be oriented more toward planning and con-trolled community

                                                    36







          and urban devel opment.  However, this is an interpretive generalization; in
          reality, many of the same adaptive options are needed for both coasts.

               Many coastal cities have portions at or near present sea level, including
          Algiers and Alexandria (Figure 22).     Low-lying portions of existing cities,
          future plans for urban development, port facilities and small harbors, the
          tourist industries' beaches, and aquatic resources in the Red Sea and the Suez
          Canal are at possible risk. Port facilities have been designed for existing sea
          level rise and could be flooded.    Large losses of the freshwater supply as a
          result of saltwater intrusion are anticipated as sea level rises.

               The two major sections of the Egyptian coast that are most vulnerable to
          sea level rise are the east end of the Nile Delta at Port Said and the west end
          adjacent to Alexandria.   Although Alexandria itself is 3 to 5 meters above sea
          level, it is surrounded by low land. Thus, if sea level rises, the city could
          become an island.

               Long-term tidal gauge records from France and Italy suggest that the
          Mediterranean countries have historically experienced 1-2 mm per year of sea
          level rise.  An accelerated rise in sea level would   exacerbate existing local
          problems with subsidence, erosion, and storm  damage.  There  are already




                                             ,x JVNI",
                       Ab

                                                       1W 17

                                                                    73,






























               _4 _1V




          Figure 22. Alexandria's beaches   have already eroded.

                                                 37







              tremendous   erosion   problems   along the    central  Nile   Del ta  and  at    its
              distributary promontories (e.g., the Rosetta). The Nile Delta is experiencing
              rapid erosion due to blockage of its sediment supply by the Aswan Dam. Tidal
              gauge data from stations located at Alexandria and Port Said document subsidence
              in the area of 1-2.5 mm per year. The Algerian-Tunisian shore is particularly
              susceptible to wave attack from the west, and this phenomenon could be
              exacerbated with a rise in sea level.

                   The three main adaptive approaches are the same as for other regions: (1)
              withdrawing from the coast, (2) building protective structures, or (3) remaining
              and adjusting to the expected change.

              Regional Recommendations

                   Improving forecasts of sea level rise is a top priorlity.         In addition,
              future urbanization should be limited to appropriate areas in view of the
              anticipated sea level rise in order to avoid future problems and expense. Plans
              for new structures should take into consideration the anticipated rise, and
              existing structures will need to be raised as the problem evolves.

                   Hard protective structures should be constructed where buildings or public
              works are at risk. More flexible measures, such as establishing set-back lines
              should be used in currently nonurbanized areas. The major difficulty with the
              latter option will be to convince officials to accept a loss of precious land
              today to prevent some very distant uncertain consequences.

                   The various stages for the development of response strategies include: (1)
              evaluating high-risk areas; (2) developing options (i.e., defensive, adaptive,
              retreat) ; (3)   defining and developing policy strategies;        (4)    developing
              funding mechanisms;      (5)    creating appropriate institutional and legal
              frameworks; and (6) defining the time frame for implementation.

                   The regional representative proposed a schedule for responding to sea level
              rise and global warming. Over the next 10 years, the focus would be to define
              the problem, develop legal structures, and control development.      From the years
              2000 through 2020, coastal zone planning should define responses and how to
              implement them. Adjustment actions, such as retreat, should be initiated. Sea
              level rise concerns could be incorporated into current plans for coastal
              construction from the years 2020 through 2050.

              Country-Specific Recommendations: Egypt

                   The following adaptive options for Egypt are appropriate today:

                   1.     Upgrade and update the quality of information available on areas
                          vulnerable to a sea level rise, and use Geographic Information
                          Systems to analyze it.

                   2.     Adapt new agricultural practices with improved efficiencies for
                          using freshwater.

                   3.     Develop salt-tolerant agricultural plants.



                                                      38







                 4.     Strengthen existing institutions, and create new ones to deal tilth
                        water and coastal resource research, allocation, and management.

                 5.     Incorporate a protective plan into the design of an international
                        road currently planned for the coast.

                 6.     Control the exploitation of quarries along the coast west of
                        Alexandria in order to preserve the ridge.

                 7.     Incorporate beach erosion studies and erosion control practices into
                        coastal zone development plans.

                 8.     Move waste dumping sites to suitable locations to reduce risk of
                        water pollution.

                 9.     Encourage land reclamation projects at higher land elevations.

                10.     Assess the technical and economic feasibility of bypassing sediments
                        at the Aswan High Dam.

                 The consequences of an accelerated sea level rise are not expected to
           materialize until    2030-2050.    However, the longer the implementation of
           appropriate adaptive strategies is delayed, the greater the eventual cost in
           human and economic terms. Costs are escalating and the population is doubling,
           so it is imperative to work on adaptive activity now.


           HON-MEOXTERRANEAN EUROPE

           Problem Rdentification

                 The technical problems related to coastal zone management in Europe are no
           different from those found elsewhere in the world. Low-lying coastal areas are
           faced with inundation (Figure 23), erosion, saltwater intrusion, and the threat
           of extreme climate events, such as the extreme storm surge in 1953 that led to
           the collapse of coastal defenses in countries bordering the North Sea (Figure
           24).

                 Anthropogenic problems play less of a role in Europe than in other parts
           of the world, as coastal regulations in most countries have existed and have
           been enforced for a considerable period of time.      The fundamental difference
           between most European countries and other countries is that the former have both
           the technological and financial resources to respond appropriately to the above
           problems.

                 The present level of coastal defense structures varies among countries.
           In countries like the Netherlands, the structures may be considered adequate,
           whereas in other countries, such as Poland and Portugal, limited financial
           resources constrain coastal protection efforts.

                 European countries should be able to cope with the possible effects of sea
           level rise alone.    However, if a relatively steady rate of eustatic sea level
           rise is accompanied by changes in the frequency, direction, intensity, and
           duration of extreme events (storms), coastal defenses may be insufficient.

                                                   39


































                                                             some,
















                         a*






            Figure  23.   Near Helsinki, Finland       while the  Scandinavian  coast is   not
            vulnerable  to erosion, some developed  low areas are vulnerable to inundation.


            Implementation of Adaptive Strategies

                 Most.European countries could respond to the threat of sea level rise by,
            either coastal defense or retreat.     The regional representatives do not see
            significant barriers to the implementation of these adaptive strategies. The
            financial, technical, and institutional capabilities exist for addressing sea
            level rise, particularly with coastal defense measures. Public awareness of the
            problem is high, and environmental issues are a priority for policymakers.

                  Because of the generally high economic, environmental, cultural, and social
            values of the coastal areas in European countries, the adaptive measures would
            be cost-effective; however, their implementation would depend on site-specific
            considerations.    For European countries, cost considerations are directly
            related to the value of capital investment in coastal areas.       In areas where
            there is significant investment, there is more incentive to pay the cost of
            protection. This is particularly true in highly industrialized countries where
            the percentage of coastal defense expenditures is relatively small in relation
            .to the gross national product.        In less industrialized countries, that


                                                    40























                                    T






                                                                  #4













           Figure 24.   The 1953 flood almost devastated London,   Engl and. This picture,
           showing what could have happened, was instrumental      in creating the public
           awareness necessary to construct the Thames Barrier.



           percentage could be higher, making the defense option less affordable and less
           feasible.

                A-high level of technological expertise in coastal defense measures is
           readily available in most European countries.     In those countries with large
           coastal areas that are extensively protected, this expertise is constantly being
           improved and expanded.

                The institutional framework to facilitate adequate response to the threat
           of sea level rise exists in most countries, although in some of them this threat
           has not yet been incorporated into the planning and decisionmaking processes.




                                                  41








                  Because of its long historical experience with flooding and other
             catastrophes, the general public is keenly aware of the risks to coastal areas,
             particularly-in the countries bordering the North Sea, which have extensive
             protective systems. In some countries, the level of awareness probably requires
             further stimulation. In all cases, awareness is directly linked to the values
             (economic, environmental, cultural, social, etc.) attributed -to the potentially
             threatened area.   However, at the same time, the public still expects that
             provisions for public safety will be continued.       Strategies involving any
             reduction in safety standards or abandonment of protective systems would be
             strongly resisted.

                  While uncertainty remains concerning the problem of sea level rise, there
             would be little or no opposition in European countries to consider or, in some
             cases, to incorporate preventive measures into coastal zone management plans in
             the light of scientifically acceptable projections for sea level rise.

                  Although coastal defense can sometimes cause adverse environmental effects,
             (see the "Environmental Implications" section) these concerns are increasingly
             taken into consideration and have high priority in the national decision-making
             processes.

             Recommendations

                  1.     Expand climate-related research.

                  2.     Stimulate public awareness about the problem by developing and
                         providing educational programs.

                  3.     Develop new "tools," such as the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Society
                         study done by the Netherlands, to encourage a multidisciplinary
                         integrated response to the threat of sea level rise and all its
                         implications. Use these tools in the countries where these efforts
                         have not yet been undertaken.

                  4.     Through international action, facilitate the transfer of developed
                         technologies to all countries in need of these! "tools," within
                         European countries and, in particular, within developing nations.

                  5.     Provide international and national assistance for the training of
                         coastal managers in the European countries that have developed
                         relevant technologies.


             CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

             Problem Identification

                  The coastal zones of this region face a variety of common problems,
             including flooding, elevation of water tables and resulting impacts on
             agriculture, increasing population concentrations, inappropriate construction
             in low-lying areas, recent intensification of climate anomallies, and ongoing


                                                   42









           changes in wave climates, the patterns of littoral drift, and other aspects of
           coastal morphology.

                 These problems would probably be magnified if sea level rises. Flooding
           would be exacerbated, causing inland sedimentation problems and silting of river
           beds in addition to direct risks to life and property. Coastal erosion would
           impede government efforts to develop tourism and other economic activities.
           Saltwater intrusion into rivers and aquifers could cause severe problems.
           Because many cities discharge sewage into fluvial waters through gravity
           drainage systems, a rise in sea level could block the flow of these wastes away
           from coastal urban areas.     Finally, changes in physio-chemical properties in
           coastal waters and flooding of coastal ecosystems could damage the biological
           chain, particularly fisheries resources.

           Adaptive Strategies and Barriers to Implementation

                 Existing measures include hard and soft options for shore protection and
           preservation of coastal areas. These strategies have been put in place to deal
           with existing physical coastal processes (such as wave erosion) and have not
           been designed to deal with a rise in sea level.

                 The representatives from the region see a variety of barriers to
           implementing adaptive measures.    Perhaps most important, the uncertainty of the
           phenomenon and the existence of more pressing socioeconomic problems prevent the
           decisionmakers from assigning a high priority to formulation of adaptive
           strategies specifically for sea level rise.

                 Other barriers include cost, the lack of technical and public awareness,
           poverty, and the international debt crisis. Countries in the region do not have
           the financial    resources to invest in adaptive options, given their own
           development requirements. Moreover, technical expertise is very limited; there
           are not enough knowledgeable people to teach others or address the problem,
           given the wide range of competing needs.        There is a corresponding lack of
           public awareness of the problem that needs to be addressed by formal and
           informal educational programs.

                 Moreover, the poor -- who constitute the majority of people in the region
             -- simply do not have the resources to relocate or protect themselves, no
           matter how well informed they might be.      There are financial problems at the
           national level as well:         governmental decisionmakers and politicians are
           constrained by the pressing need to service international debts, which severely
           inhibits national ability to invest in protection of the environment. There are
           too many other critical, immediate demands on scarce financial resources.

                 Adaptive responses also face cultural, institutional, and environmental
           constraints. Besides the natural human tendency to resist change, especially
           when cultural values and a sense of community are directly related to a
           particular environment, different values are placed on the present versus the
           future.     The present, especially for poor people concerned with basic
           subsistence, is immediate and real. The future, which could include a possible
           rise in sea level of undetermined magnitude, is too far away and unreal to be


                                                     43









            a   serious  preoccupation,   particularly given    the  existing    socioeconomic
            constraints.

                  The greatest factor inhibiting effective institutional response is the lack
            of coordination between a variety of disparate agencies, each responsible for
            addressing different coastal problems and activities. There is a tendency to
            create more agencies or institutions to deal with a problem, rather than to
            streamline the existing system to address it more effectively.

                  Finally, response strategies would undoubtedly have important environmental
            implications.   Unfortunately, there is not enough knowledge or research data
            about ecosystem responses to determine how a particular strategy might affect
            the environment.

            Effectiveness of Adaptive Strategies

                  Although adaptive options for this region have not been considered in
            depth, the regional representatives recognized that a number of issues would
            have to be addressed to evaluate their effectiveness. Maintaining public safety
            is important, for example, and the present systems used to protect the coast
            from existing problems would be inadequate to cope with an acceleration of sea
            level rise.

                  One must also compare the costs of a strategy with the likely benefits.
            The region's representatives concluded that the opportunity cost of investing
            in defenses against long-term sea level rise is not currently competitive with
            other socioeconomic investment.       Another important consideration is the
            protection of environmental and    cultural resources.    Unfortunately, in some
            cases, sea level rise has not even been recognized as a possible threat to these
            resources.

                  Finally, given our inability to predict the future, strategies that perform
            well under uncertainty should be   preferred. But the regional representatives
            felt that until preliminary assessments of the impacts and possible responses
            are undertaken, an evaluation of this criterion is at best premature and
            probably irrelevant.

            Reconmendations

                  Despite of the limitations of current understanding, the regional
            representatives concluded that existing knowledge is sufficient to support a
            number of recommendations at the national and international levels.

            National Level

                  1.    Create local and regional panels on climate change to advise
                        national authorities.    At the national level, there should be a
                        centralized authority dealing specifically with global climate
                        change.




                                                    44









               2.      Create and fund formal and informal education programs on climate
                       change and sea level rise, and establish information systems tLo
                       maintain a high public profile for these issues.

               3.      Develop appropriate technology for adaptive options specifically
                       related to local conditions.

               4.      Reallocate funding from reduced military expenditure to address the
                       physical and social aspects of environmental issues.

               5.      Encourage national earth science agencies and institutions to place
                       a high priority on the study of global climate change.

          International Level

               1.      Expand the global monitoring network for the collection and
                       dissemination of data relevant to sea level rise and climate change,
                       including the establishment of data banks.

               2.      Increase the transfer of appropriate technology related to adaptive
                       options.

               3.      Reall6cate some military expenditures to assist developing countries
                       in addressing the physical and social aspects of environmental
                       issues.

               4.      Establish regional cooperation/coordination regarding global climate
                       change.

               5.      Create and fund formal and informal regional educational programs
                       on global climate change and sea level rise, including the training
                       of human resources necessary to support a comprehensive defense
                       approach to the effects of sea level rise.

               6.      Make available the latest state-of-the-art data in research and
                       appropriate adaptive measures adopted in the developed world to
                       ensure swift transfer of the newest technology, sometimes denied by
                       financial and similar constraints.



          NORTH AMERICA

               North America has a wide range of coastal land forms and development
          patterns. Hence, its vulnerability to global warming and accelerated sea level
          rise will vary from region to region.         In general, the continent can be
          characterized by Arctic/Pacific and Atlantic/Gulf coastal landforms. The Pacific
          coast is typified by cliffed shorelines, often rocky and rugged, with relatively
          few low-lying human population centers (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, Acapulco).
          By contrast, the Atlantic and Gulf coastal plains are low, flat, and densely
          populated; the outer barrier islands have become some of the most valuable real
          estate in the United States, and an important source of foreign exchange for
          Mexico.


                                                  45









                  Canada and the northern United States were subject to glaciation during the
             past ice age. With a few exceptions, these areas tend to be more rocky, with
             higher relief terrain than their southern counterparts.         ThE!y are also still
             experiencing isostatic rebound from the last glaciation, so that the land is
             actually rising out of the sea from Oregon north, around the Arctic, and south
             to Maine.   Tectonic processes are also causing uplift along -the Pacific coast
             between Oregon and Alaska.      In areas with substantial uplift, sea level rise
             will be markedly less important for the coastal ecosystems and local economy.
             By contrast, the unconsolidated sediment of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal plains
             are slowly subsiding about 15 cm per century, and a few areas such as Louisiana
             and Galveston are subsiding several times as rapidly.

             Impacts of Sea Level Rise

                   From an economic standpoint, Canada appears to be least vulnerable to sea
             level rise owing to both its rocky coasts (Figure 25) and its low population
             density.   Nevertheless, St. John, Charlottetown, and a few other cities have
             low-lying developed areas that might be threatened.          Moreover, a number of
             planned major infrastructure projects would be vulnerable to, sea level rise.
















                       Z4,7-


            NOT41


                                                                                                    41
                                    Yi,
                    LL


                   F -
                              4@,              4,7




                                                   4

             Figure  25.  Mouth of  Belle  Isle  Straits on  the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland
             (Canada).

                                                       46









          By contrast, 2.8 million Mexicans live within a few meters of sea level, and
          many beach resorts would be extremely vulnerable. Although the United States
          could lose the most land of the three nations -- about 20,000 square kilometers
          -- such a loss would be small compared to the total land area of the country.
          In both Mexico and the United States, the threat to recreational beach resorts
          would be particularly great.

               From an environmental standpoint, the greatest threat from sea level rise
          appears to be the loss of coastal wetlands in Mexico and the United States. A
          one-meter rise would inundate over half of the U.S. coastal wetlands; the low
          tidal range in the Gulf of Mexico suggests that Mexico's wetlands would be at
          least as vulnerable as those of the United States.        Particularly vulnerable
          would be the Mississippi Delta in the United States and the Grihalva Delta in
          Mexico.   The larger tidal ranges and relative scarcity of wetlands in Canada
          suggest that this nation Would have less of a problem.

          Adaptive Responses

               Potential responses include structural solutions, such as dikes; soft
          solutions, such as beach nourishment; and nonstructural measures, such as
          bulkhead prohibitions, long-term leases, and requirements that structures be set
          back from the shore. In general, structural and soft solutions can be deferred
          until sea level rise is more firmly established and closer at hand.         (Because
          the problems are already occurring in Louisiana owing to subsidence, structural
          solutions are being actively pursued even today.)          By contrast, planning
          measures require long lead times commensurate with the lifetimes of coastal
          development. Although houses may have useful lifetimes of 30-50 years, planning
          requires a longer time horizon because roads and other infrastructure channel
          development for centuries.

               A major theme throughout this conference has been that countries with the
          greatest vulnerability to sea level rise are also the least able to respond.
          This principle applies in North America, where millions of people subsist on
          low-lying, erodible coastal plains near the water's edge and lack the
          institutional and financial means to erect shore protection structures or to
          relocate inland.    The present level of protection in urban areas is barely
          sufficient, as evidenced by the Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which caused major
          destruction in Mexico.

               Preliminary assessments in the United States indicate that the cost to
          protect the most densely developed 15% of the land threatened by sea level. rise
          could total approximately $100 billion. By contrast, the only study of Canada
          suggests that the cost of rebuilding coastal infrastructure would be only $3-4
          billion;  moreover, the net cost of sea level rise would be much less because
          adjustments could be incorporated in the renovations that would take place
          anyway.    Although no assessments have been conducted for Mexico, the
          similarities between its coasts and those of the southern United States suggest
          that if structural solutions were used to protect developed areas, the cost
          would be high.




                                                  47









             Barriers to Implementing Response Strategies

                  Adaptive strategies would face many barriers. In Mexico and some parts of
             the United States and Canada, the necessary financial resources simply would not
             be available.    In the United States, structural protection measures could
             eventually result in the loss of most wetland shores, with consequent impacts
             on coastal fisheries.     Cultural problems must be considered as well.       For
             example, the highly developed Long Beach Island in New Jersey could probably
             afford a dike, and the environmental consequences would be small if the
             undeveloped portion were left outside the dike; but the loss of beaches and
             waterfront views may not be acceptable to the public. Current legal constraints
             make it difficult to abandon areas for the sake of wetland protection without
             compensation, unless a plan to do so is put in place decades before an
             abandonment is necessary.

                  Moreover, when one gets into the details of necessary responses, one begins
             to see that our understanding of the implications of response options is
             superficial at best. The feasibility of raising land, for eXample, depends in
             part on the availability of inexpensive fill material, which in turn may depend
             on shipping costs.   But climate change may alter these costs, particularly if
             sea level rise reduces clearance under bridges or m6re frequent droughts
             diminish the flow in rivers.

                  Perhaps the most important barrier to implementing anticipatory strategies
             is the lack of public awareness, which is the product of educational, social,
             and cultural backgrounds. However, it may also be the most important problem
             that can be theoretically dealt with by existing institutions. Most people do
             not think about underlying processes (e.g., the gradual rise in sea level).
             Instead, they respond only to events (e.g., catastrophic damage and loss of life
             caused by a hurricane).    Tragedies are blamed on the flukes of nature, and
             people view themselves as victims of bad luck.      Nevertheless, in the United
             States there is a growing awareness among public officials and the general
             public of the hazards of flooding, the importance of coastal wetlands, and the
             risks due to sea level rise; in the last three years, many agencies have begun
             to incorporate sea level rise in their coastal management policies. Mexico and
             Canada have only begun to undertake impact assessments; neither has yet
             implemented measures as a direct response to accelerated sea level rise.

                  Vulnerability is obvious from even a casual inspection of the present
             situation, not to mention the continuing urbanization along the U.S. coasts and
             the population explosion in Mexico. The picture looks bleak without even a hint
             of a rainbow within the darkened clouds. Scant and incomplete as our data are
             now, it is apparent that there is already trouble at the water's edge, which
             will only be exacerbated by accelerated sea level rise.


             CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

                  In many parts of the world, as a result of population growth and economic
             development, the natural function of coastal areas and resources is being
             degraded and impaired.    These problems will be aggravated and compounded by
             future sea level rise and other effects of global climlite change unless

                                                    48









         appropriate response strategies are adopted.      With a view toward sustainable
         development, the current status of coastal areas and resources is a matter of
         national and international concern, and care must be taken to avoid additional
         adverse impacts.

               Although   coastal   zone   management   is   a   national    responsibility,
         international cooperation among nations with shared concerns can improve the
         management of coastal resources in general and can facilitate adaptive responses
         to climate change in particular. International cooperation is particularly
         valuable in the collection and use of information on available response options
         and their implications.

               Existing international organizations, such as the UNEP and its Regional
         Seas Programme, should be used to identify and evaluate solutions for present
         and future problems in the management of coastal areas and resources, especially
         for developing countries.

               While uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and timing of accelerated
         sea level rise, current information from the IPCC Working Group I suggests that
         a rise in sea level of 25 to 40 cm is possible by the middle of the next
         century. Even if measures are adopted to limit emissions of greenhouse gases,
         sea level is expected to continue rising for some time. Thus, coastal states
         must consider how to adapt.

               The highest priority tasks include:

               1.     Identifying coastal areas, populations, and resources at risk from
                      sea level rise, and undertaking topographic mapping with improved
                      vertical resolution.

               2.     Developing global and regional systems to research, monitor, and
                      predict sea level rise and its consequences.

               3.     Educating the public, to develop awareness of the risks to coastal
                      resources from both existing activities and future sea level rise,
                      and also to keep these critical issues in the forefront of public
                      and government attention.

               4.     Elaborating or amending national policies and legal structures for
                      integrated management of coastal and related areas and resources.

               5.     Ensuring that new coastal projects do not place further stress on
                      coastal areas and resources.

               6.     Enhancing research programs and encouraging collection and
                      dissemination of all relevant data and information to improve our
                      understanding of (a) the status and trends of the physical systems
                      at the national      and cross-boundary level       (geomorphological,
                      hydrological, hydraulic, etc.); (b) the economic implications of
                      resource allocation, planning, analysis, and implementation at both
                      the national and cross-boundary levels; (c) the environmental and
                      ecological   implications   involved   in   effective   coastal    zone

                                                 49









                        management; and (d) the social and cultural        implications and
                        constraints facing adaptive strategies. This research will help us
                        to develop the necessary legal, planning, and institutional
                        capabilities for integrated management of coastal resources and
                        related areas.

                 7.     Providing technical and financial assistance to developing countries
                        for research and management of coastal areas and resources.

                 8.     Using country-specific studies to evaluate available adaptive
                        options.

                 9.     Adopting a framework convention on climate change to facilitate
                        cooperative efforts to limit and/or adapt to global climate change.





































                                                   50












I















              PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION












                                CAUSES OF SEA LEVEL RISE








          PAST TRENDS IN SEA LEVEL

               The worldwide average sea level depends primarily on (1) the shape and size
          of ocean basins, (2) the amount of water in the oceans, and (3) the average
          density of seawater. The latter two factors are influenced by climate, but the
          first is not. Subsidence and emergence due to natural factors such as isostatic
          and tectonic adjustments of the land surface, as well as human-induced factors
          such as oil and water extraction, can cause trends in "relative sea level" at
          particular locations to differ from trends in "global sea level."

               Hays and Pitman (1973) analyzed fossil records and concluded that over the
          last 100 million years, changes in mid-ocean ridge systems have caused sea level
          to rise and fall over 300 meters. However, Clark et al. (1978) have pointed out
          that these changes have accounted for sea level changes of less than one
          millimeter per century. No published study has indicated that this determinant
          of sea level is likely to have a significant impact in the next century.

               The impact of climate on sea level has been more significant over relatively
          short periods of time. Geologists generally recognize that during ice ages, the
          glaciation of substantial portions of the Northern Hemisphere has removed enough
          water from the oceans to lower sea level 100 meters below present levels during
          the last (18,000 years ago) and previous ice ages (Donn et al., 1962; Kennett,
          1982; 01dale, 1985).

               Although the glaciers that once covered much of the Northern Hemisphere
          have retreated, the world's remaining ice cover contains enough water to raise
          sea level over 75 meters    (Hollin and Barry, 1979).    Hollin and Barry (1979)
          and Flint (1971) estimate that existing alpine glaciers contain enough water to
          raise sea level 30 or 60 centimeters, respectively.       The Greenland and West
          Antarctic ice sheets each contain enough water to raise sea level about 7 meters,
          while East Antarctica has enough ice to raise sea level over 60 meters. There
          is no evidence that either the Greenland or East Antarctic ice sheet has
          completely disintegrated in the last two mill ion years. However, it is generally


               1 Editor's note: Workgroup I has not been authorized to provide a paper
          to the proceedings. For completeness, we reprint the following, adapted from
          Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, published by UNEP
          and EPA.


                                                  53











             Problem Identification

             recognized that sea level was about seven meters higher than today during the
             last interglacial, which was 1-20C warmer (Mercer, 1970; Hollill, 1972). Because
             the West Antarctic ice sheet is marine-based and thought by some to be
             vulnerable to climatic warming, attention has focused on this source for the
             higher sea level.    Mercer (1968) found that lake sediments and other evidence
             suggested that summer temperatures in Antarctica have been 7 to 10'C higher than
             today at some point in the last two million years, probably the last interglacial
             125,000 years ago, and that such temperatures could have caused a disintegration
             of the West Antarctic ice sheet. However, others are not certain that marine-
             based glaciers are more vulnerable to climate change than land-based glaciers;
             Robin (1986) suggests that the higher sea level during the last interglacial
             period may have resulted from changes in the East Antarctic ice sheet.

                  Tidal gauges have been available to measure the change in relative sea
             level at particular locations over the last century. Studies combining these
             measurements to estimate global trends have concluded that sea level has risen
             1.0 to 2.5 millimeters per year during the last century (Peltier and Tushingham,
             1989; Barnett, 1984; Gornitz et al., 1982; Fairbridge and Krebs, 1962). Barnett
             (1984) found that the rate of sea level rise over the last 50 years had been
             about 2.0 mm/yr, whereas in the previous 50 years there had been little change;
             however, the acceleration in the rate of sea level rise was not statistically
             significant. Emery and Aubrey (1985) have accounted for estimated land surface
             movements in their analyses of tidal gauge records in Northern           Europe and
             western North America, and have found an acceleration in the rate of sea level
             rise over the last century.

                  Several researchers have sought to explain the source of current trends in
             sea level.    Barnett (1984) and Gornitz et al . (1982) estimate that thermal
             expansion of the upper layers of the oceans resulting from the observed global
             warming of 0.40C in the last century could be responsible for a rise of 0.4 to
             0. 5 mm/yr.    Roemmich and Wunsch (1984) examined temperature and salinity
             measurements at Bermuda and concluded that the VC isotherm had migrated 100
             meters downward, and that the resulting expansion of ocean water could be
             responsible for some or all of the observed rise in relative sea level. Roemmich
             (1985) showed that the warming trend 700 meters below the surface was
             statistically significant.      Meier (1984) estimates that retreat of alpine
             glaciers and small icecaps could be currently contributing between 0.2 and 0.72
             mm/yr to sea level. The National Academy of Sciences Polar Research Board (Meier
             et al., 1985) concluded that existing information is insufficient to determine
             whether the impacts of Greenland and Antarctica are positive 'Dr zero. Although
             the estimated global warming of the last century appears to be at least partly
             responsible for the last century's rise in sea level, studies have not yet
             demonstrated that global warming is responsible for acceleration in the rate
             of sea level rise.

             The Greenhouse Effect

                  Although global temperatures and sea level have been fairly stable in recent
             centuries, the future may be very different. Increasing concentrations of carbon
             dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and other gases released by human

                                                      54









         activities could heat the Earth to temperatures warmer than at any time in the
         last two million years and thereby accelerate the rate of sea level rise.

              A planet's temperature is determined primarily by the amount of sunlight
         it receives, the amount of sunlight it reflects, and the extent to which its
         atmosphere retains heat. When sunlight strikes the Earth, it warms the surface,
         which radiates the heat as infrared radiation. However, water vapor, carbon
         dioxide, and a few other gases found naturally in the atmosphere absorb some
         of the energy instead of allowing it to pass undeterred through the atmosphere
         to space.    Because the atmosphere traps heat and warms the Earth in a manner
         somewhat analogous to the glass panels of a greenhouse, this phenomenon is
         generally known as the greenhouse effect; the relevant gases are known as
         greenhouse gases.      Without theogreenhouse effect of the gases that occur
         naturally, the Earth would be 33 C (600F) colder than it is currently (Hansen
         et al., 1984).

              Since the industrial revolution, the combustion of fossil                  fuels,
         deforestation, and cement manufacture have released enough C02 into the
         atmosphere to raise the atmospheric concentration of C02 by 20 percent; the
         concentration has increased 10 percent since 1958 (Keeling, 1983). Carbon cycle
         modelers and energy economists generally expect the concentration of C02 to
         increase 50 percent by 2050 and to double by 2075. Recently, the concentrations
         of chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide,       carbon tetrachloride, ozone,
         and dozens of other trace gases that also absorb      infrared radiation have also
         been increasing (Lacis et al., 1981). Ramanathan et al. (1985) estimated that
         the combined impacts of these other gases are likely to be as          great as C021
         which implies that by 2050, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases
         will be equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide.

              All projections of future concentrations have been based on the assumption
         that current trends will continue and that governments will not regulate
         emissions of greenhouse gases.       However, in the fall of 1987, most of the
         industrial nations agreed to cut emissions of the chlorofluorocarbons by 50
         percent over the following decade. Moreover, the United Nations has created an
         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to develop strategies            to reduce
         emissions of greenhouse gases in general. Nevertheless, curtailing emissions
         will be difficult.     There is considerable doubt regarding the global warming
         that would result from a doubling of carbon dioxide. There is general agreement
         that the average temperature would rise 1.2*C if nothing else changed. However,
         warmer temperatures would allow the atmosphere to retain more water vapor, which
         is also a greenhouse gas, increasing the warming. A retreat of ice cover would
         also amplify the warmi  'ng, while possible changes in cloud cover could increase
         or decrease the warming. Two reports by the National Academy of Sciences have
         developed a consensus estimate that the average warming will be 1.5 to 4.50C,
         and that the polar areas will warm two to three times as much.

         Impact of Future Global Warming on Sea Level

              Concern about a substantial rise in sea level as a result of the projected
         global warming stemmed originally from Mercer (1968), who suggested that the
         Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves might disintegrate, causing a deglaciation


                                                  55








            Problem Identification

            of the West Antarctic ice sheet and a resulting 6- to 7-meter rise in sea level,
            possibly over a period as short as 40 years.

                 Subsequent investigations have concluded that such a rapid rise is unlikely.
            Hughes (1983) and Bentley (1983) estimated that such a disintegration would take
            at least 200 or 500 years, respectively. Other researchers have estimated that
            this process would take considerably longer (Fastook, 1985; Lingle, 1985).

                 Researchers have turned their attention to the magnitude of sea level rise
            that might occur in the next century. The best understood factors are the thermal
            expansion of ocean water and the melting of alpine glaciers. In the National
            Academy of Sciences (NAS) report "Changing Climate," Revelle (1983) used the
            model of Cess and Goldenberg (1981) to estimate temperature increases at various
            depths and latitudes resulting from a 4.20C warming by 2050-2060. While noting
            that his assumed time constant of 33 years probably resulted in a conservatively
            low estimate, he estimated that thermal expansion would result in an expansion
            of the upper ocean sufficient to raise sea level 30 cm.

                 Using a model of the oceans developed by Lacis et al. (1981), Hoffman et
            al. (1986) examined a variety of possible      scenarios of future emissions of
            greenhouse gases and global warming. They estimated that a warming of between
            1 and 2.60C could result in thermal expansion contributing between 12 and 26 cm
            by 2050. They also estimated that a global warming of 2.3 to 7.00C by 2100 would
            result in thermal expansion of 28 to 83 cm by that year.

                 Revelle (1983) suggested that while he could not estimate the future
            contribution of alpine glaciers to sea level rise, a contribution of 12 cm
            through 2080 would be reasonable. Meier (1984) used glacier balance and volume
            change data for 25 glaciers where the available record exceeded 50 years to
            estimate the relationship between historic temperature increases and the
            resulting negative mass balances of the.glaciers.     He estimated that a 28-mm
            rise had resulted from a warming of 0.5 C, and concluded that a 1.5 to 4.50C
            warming would result in a rise of 8 to 25 cm in the next centUry. Using these
            results, the NAS   Polar Board concluded that the contribution of glaciers and
            small ice caps through 2100 is likely to be 10 to 30 cm (Meier et al., 1985).
            They noted that the gradual depletion of remaining ice cover might reduce the
            contribution of sea level rise somewhat. However, the contribution might also
            be greater, given that the historic rise took place over a 60-year period, while
            the  forecast period is over 100 years.    Using Meier's estimated relationship
            between global warming and the alpine contribution,       Hoffman et al. (1986)
            estimated alpine contributions through 2100 at 12 to 38   cm for a global warming
            of 2.3 to 7.OOC.

                 The first published estimate of the contribution of  Greenland to future sea
            level rise was Revelle's (1983) estimate of 12 cm through the year 2080. Using
            estimates by Ambach (1980 and 1985) that the equilibrium line (between snowfall
            accumulation and melting) rises 100 meters for each 0.60C rise in air
            temperatures, he concluded that the projected 60C warming in Greenland would be
            likely to raise the equilibrium line 1,000 meters.      He estimated.that such a
            change in the equilibrium line would result in a 12-cm contribution to sea level
            rise for the next century.


                                                    56









                 The NAS Polar Board (Meier et al., 1985) noted that Greenland is a
            "significant potential contributor of meltwater." They found that a 1,000-meter
            rise in the equilibrium line would result in a contribution of 30 cm through
            2100.   However, because Ambach (1985) found the relationship between the
            equilibrium line and temperature to be 77 meters per degree Celsius, the panel
            concluded that a 500-meter shift in the equilibrium line would be more likely.
            Based on the assumption that Greenland will warm 6.50C by 2050 and that
            temperatures will remain constant thereafter, the panel estimated that such a
            change would contribute about 10 cm to sea level through 2100, but also noted
            that "for an extreme but highly unlikely case, with the equilibrium line raised
            1000 meters, the total rise would be 26 cm."

                 The potential impact of a global warming on Antarctica in the next century
            is the least certain of all the factors by which a global warming might
            contribute to sea level rise.      Meltwater from East Antarctica might make a
            significant contribution by the year 2100, but no one has estimated the likely
            contribution. Several studies have examined "deglaciation," which also includes
            the contribution of ice sliding into the oceans.       Bentley (1983) examined the
            processes by which a deglaciation of West Antarctica might occur. The first step
            in the process would be accelerated melting of the undersides of the Ross and
            Filchner-Ronne ice shelves as a result of warmer water circulating underneath
            them. The thinning of these ice shelves could cause them to become unpinned and
            would cause their grounding lines to retreat. Revelle (1983) concluded that the
            available literature suggests that the ice shelves might disappear in 100 years,
            after which time the Antarctic ice streams would flow directly into the oceans,
            without the back pressure of the ice shelves.      He suggested that this process
            would take 200 to 500 years.

                 Although a West Antarctic deglaciation would occur over a period of
            centuries, it is possible that an irreversible deglaciation could commence before
            2050. If the ice shelves thinned more than about one meter per year, Thomas et
            al. (1979) suggested that the ice would move into the sea at a sufficient speed
            that even a cooling back to the temperatures of today would not be sufficient
            to result in a reformation of the ice shelf.

                 To estimate the likely antarctic contribution for the next century, Thomas
            (1985) developed four scenarios of the impact of a VC global warming by 2050,
            estimating that a 28-cm rise would be most likely, but that a rise of I to 2.2
            meters would be possible under certain circumstances.         The NAS Pol ar Board
            (Meier et al., 1985) evaluated the Thomas study and papers by Lingle (1985) and
            Fastook (1985).     Although Lingle estimated that the contribution of West
            Antarctica through 2100 would be 3 to 5 cm, he did not evaluate East Antarctica,
            while Fastook made no estimate for the year 2100.        Thus, the panel concluded
            that "imposing reasonable limits" on the model of Thomas yields a range of 20
            to 80 cm by 2100 for the antarctic contribution.         However, they also noted
            several factors that would reduce the amount of ice discharged into the sea:
            the removal of the warmest ice from the ice shelves, the retreat of grounding
            lines, and increased lateral shear stress. They also concluded that increased
            precipitation over Antarctica Rigt increase the size of the polar ice sheets
            there.   Thus, the panel concluded that Antarctica could cause a rise in sea
            level up to I meter, or a drop of 10 cm, with a rise between 0 and 30 cm most
            likely.

                                                     57











                Problem Identification


                     Using a range of estimates for future concentrations of greenhouse gases,
                the climate's sensitivity to such increases, oceanic heat uptake, and the
                behavior of glaciers, Hoffman et al., (1983) estimated that the rise would be
                between 56 and 345 cm, with a rise of 144 to 217 cm most likely; however, they
                did not examine the impact of deliberate attempts by society to curtail
                emissions.    Revelle (1983) estimated that the rise was likely to be 70 cm,
                ignoring the impact of a global warming on Antarctica; he also noted that the
                latter contribution was likely to be 1 to 2 m/century after 2050, but declined
                to add that to his estimate. The NAS Polar Board (Meier et al ., 1985) projected
                that the contribution of glaciers would be sufficient to raise sea level 20 to
                160 cm, with a rise of "several tenths of a meter" most likely. Thus, if one
                extrapolates the earlier NAS estimate of thermal expansion through the year
                2100, the 1985 NAS report implies a rise between 50 and 200 cm. The estimates
                from Hoffman et al . (1986) for the year 2100 (57 to 368 cm) were similar to
                those by Hoffman et al. (1983). However, for the year 2025, they lowered their
                estimate from 26-39 cm to 10-21 cm.          More recently, IPCC Work Group 1 has
                tentatively concluded that a rise of 20-50 cm by 2050, and 50-100 cm by 2100,
                seems likely.

                Future Trends in Local Sea Level

                     Although most attention has focused on projections of global sea level,
                impacts on particular areas would depend on local relative sea level.              Local
                subsidence and emergence are caused by a variety of factors. Re         *bound from the
                retreat of glaciers after the last ice age has resulted in the uplift of
                northern Canada, New England, and parts of Scandinavia, while emergence in Alaska
                is due more to tectonic adjustments. The uplift in polar latitudes has resulted
                in subsidence in other areas, notably the U.S. Atlantic and gulf coasts.
                Groundwater pumping has caused rapid subsidence around Houston, Texas, Taipei,
                Taiwan, and Bangkok, Thailand, among other areas (Leatherman, 1983).               River
                deltas and other newly created land subside as the unconsolidated materials
                compact.   Although subsidence and emergence trends may change in the future,
                particularly where anthropogenic causes are curtailed, no one has linked these
                causes to future climate change in the next century.

                     However, the removal of ice from Greenland and Antarctica would immediately
                alter gravitational fields and eventually deform the ocean floor. For example,
                the ice on Greenland exerts a gravitational pull on the ocean's water; if the
                Greenland ice sheet melts and the water is spread throughout the globe, that
                gravitational attraction will diminish and could thereby cause sea level to drop
                along the coast of Greenland and nearby areas such as Iceland and Baffin Island.
                Eventually, Greenland would also rebound upward, just as northern areas covered
                by glaciers during the last ice age are currently rebounding'. Clark and Lingle
                (1977) have calculated the impact of a uniform 1-meter contribution from West
                Antarctica.    They concluded that relative sea level at Hawaii would rise 125
                cm, and that along much of the U.S. Atlantic and gulf coasts the rise would be
                15 cm. On the other hand, sea level would drop.at Cape Horn by close to 10 cm,
                and the rise along the southern half of the Argentine and Chilean coasts would
                be less than 75 cm.

                                                          58










                  Other contributors to local sea level that might change as a result of a
            global warming include currents, winds, and freshwater flow into estuaries.
            None of these impacts, however, has been estimated.


            CONCLUSION

                  There is a growing body of evidence that sea level rise will accelerate in
            the coming decades. Although recent assessments have generally suggested that
            the rise will not be as great as people thought possible in the early 1980s,
            they have further increased the certainty that at least some rise will take
            place.     Accordingly, coastal nations throughout the world need to begin
            considering the effects and possible responses.


            BIBLIOGRAPHY

            Ambach, W.      1985.   Climatic shift of the equilibrium line -- Kuhn's concept
            applied to the Greenland ice cap.          Annals of Glaciology 6:76-78.

            Ambach, W.     1980.    Increased C02 concentration in the atmosphere and climate
            change: potential effects on the Greenland ice sheet. Wetter und Leben 32:135-
            142, Vienna.       (Available as Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Report
            UCRL-TRANS-11767, April 1982.)

            Barnett, T.P. 1984.        The estimation of global sea level change: a problem of
            uniqueness.      Journal of Geophysical Research 89(C5):7980-7988.

            Bentley, C.R. 1983.        West Antarctic ice sheet: diagnosis and prognosis. In:
            Proceedings: Carbon Dioxide Research Conference: Carbon Dioxide, Science, and
            Consensus. Conference 820970. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy.

            Cess, R.D., and S.D. Goldenberg.         1981. The effect of ocean heat capacity upon
            global warming due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.                     Journal of
            Geophysical Research 86:498-502.

            Clark, J.A., W.E. Farrell, and W.R. Peltier. 1978.                      Global changes in
            postgl aci al sea I evel : a numeri cal cal cul ati on.   Quarternary Research 9:265-87.

            Clark, J.A., and C.S. Lingel. 1977.              Future sea-level changes due to west
            Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations.          Nature 269(5625):206-209.

            Donn, W.L., W.R. Farrand, and M. Ewing.             1962.    Pleistocene ice volumes and
            sea-level lowering. Journal of Geology 70:206-214.

            Emery, K.O., and D.G. Aubrey. 1985.           Glacial rebound and relative sea levels
            in Europe from tide-gauge records. Tectonophysics 120:239-255.

            Fairbridge, R.W., and W.S. Krebs, Jr.             1962.      Sea level and the southern
            oscillation.      Geophysical Journal 6:532-545.


                                                          59










               Prob7em Identification

               Fastook, J.L.   1985.    Ice shelves and ice streams: three modeling experiments.
               In: Glaciers, ice sheets, and sea level. Meier, M.F. et al., eds. Washington,
               DC: National Academy Press.

               Flint, R.F. 1971. Glacial and Quarternary Geology. New York: John Wiley and
               Sons.

               Gornitz, V., S. Lebedeff, and J. Hansen. 1982.         Global sea level trend in the
               past century.     Science 215:1611-14

               Hansen, J.E., A. Lacis, D. Rind, and G. Russell. 1984. Climate sensitivity to
               increasing greenhouse gases.       In:   Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise:          A
               Challenge for this Generation.        M.C. Barth and J.G. Titus, eds.         New York:
               Van Nostrand Reinhold.

               Hays, J.D., and W.C. Pitman 111. 1973.         Lithsopheric plate motion, sea level
               changes, and climatic and ecological consequences.         Nature 246:18-22.

               Hoffman, J.S., D. Keyes, and J.G. Titus.        1983.    Projecting future sea level
               rise. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

               Hoffman, J.S., J. Wells, and J.G. Titus.      1986.    Future global warming and sea
               level rise.    In: Sigbjarnarson, G., ed. Iceland Coastal and River Symposium
               Reykjavik: National Energy Authority.

               Hollin, J.T., and R.G. Barry.        1979.      Empirical and theoretical evidence
               concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature
               increase.    Environment International 2:437-444.

               Hughes, T. 1983.       The stability of the west Antarctic ice sheet: what has
               happened and what will happen.         In:   Proceedings:    Carbon Dioxide Research
               Conference:    Carbon Dioxide, Science, and Consensus.             Conference 820970.
               Washington, DC: Department of     Energy.

               Keeling, C.D. 1983. The global carbon cycle: what we know and could know from
               atmospheric, biospheric, and oceanic observations.         In:   Institute for Energy
               Analysis. Proceedings: Carbon Dioxide Research Conference: Carbon Dioxide,
               Science and Consensus. DOE CONF-820970, U.S. DOE, Washington, DC 11.3-11.62.

               Kennett, J. 1982. Marine Geology, Prentiss-Hall. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey:
               Prentess-Hall.

               Lacis, A. et al .      1981.    Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980.
               Geophysical Research Letters 81(10):1035-1038.

               Leatherman, S.P. 1983. Coastal hazards mapping on barrier islands. Proceedings
               of National Symposium on Preventing Coastal Flood Disasters, Natural Hazards.
               Res. and Appl. Spec. Publ. #7, Boulder, Colorado, p. 165-75.



                                                         60









           Lingle, C.S.    1985.    A model of a polar ice stream and future sea level rise
           due to possible drastic of the west Antarctic ice sheet.           In:   Glaciers, ice
           sheets, and sea level.      Meier, M.F. et al., eds.       Washington, DC:      National
           Academy Press.

           Meier, M.F. et al . 1985. Glaciers, ice sheets, and sea level . Washington, DC:
           National Academy Press.

           Meier, M.F. 1984. Contribution of small glaciers to global sea level . Science
           226(4681):1418-1421.

           Mercer, J.H.    1970.   Antarctic ice and interglacial high sea levels.          Science
           168:1605-6.

           Mercer, J.H. 1968. Antarctic ice and Sangamon sea level. Geological Society
           of America Bulletin 79:471.

           National Academy of Sciences. 1979. C02 and Climate: A Scientific Assessment.
           Washington, DC:    National Academy Press.

           National Academy of Sciences.       1982.   CO, and Climate:    A Second Assessment.
           Washington, DC:    National Academy Press.

           Oldale, R. 1985.     Late quarternary sea level history of New England: a review
           of published sea   level data.     Northeastern Geology 7:192-200.

           Peltier and Tushingham. 1989. Global sea level rise and the greenhouse effect:
           might they be connected? Science 244:806.

           Ramanathan, V., R.J. Cicerone, H.B. Singh, and J.T. Kiehl.           1985.   Trace gas
           trends and their potential role in climate change.            Journal of Geophysical
           Research 90:5547-66.

           Revelle, R. 1983. Probable future changes in sea level resulting from increased
           atmospheric carbon dioxide.      In:   Changing Climate.    Washington, DC: National
           Academy Press.

           Robin, G. de Q.    1986.   Changing sea level.     In:   Greenhouse Effect, Climatic
           Change, and Ecosystems. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

           Roemmich, D.     1985.   Sea level and thermal variability of the ocean.             In:
           Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

           Roemmich, D., and C. Wunsch. 1984. Apparent changes in the climatic state of
           the deep north Atlantic Ocean. Nature 207:447-450.

           Thomas, R.H.   1985. Responses of the polar ice sheets to climatic warming.          In:
           Glaciers, ice sheets, and sea level. Meier, M.F. et al., eds. Washington, DC:
           National Academy Press.

           Thomas, R.H. , T.J.O. Sanderson, and K.E. Rose. 1979. Effect of climatic warming
           on the west Antarctic ice sheet.       Nature 227:355-358.

                                                      61











                  AN OVERVIEW OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
                                          ON THE COAST


                                           JAMES G. TITUS
                                    Office of Policy Analysis
                             U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                                      Washington, DC 20460





                Global warming could raise sea level several tens of centimeters in the next
           fifty years, about one meter in the next century, and several meters in the next
           few centuries by expanding ocean water, by melting    mountain glaciers, and by
           causing ice sheets to melt or slide into the oceans.   Such a rise would inundate
           deltas, coral atoll islands, and other coastal         lowlands; erode beaches;
           exacerbate coastal flooding; and threaten water       quality in estuaries and
           aquifers.

                Most nations have sufficient high ground to permit a gradual adaptation, but
           not without substantial investments in infrastructure and the loss of important
           ecosystems. About 50 to 80 percent of coastal wetlands could be lost, with river
           deltas particularly important.     In a few cases, a rise in sea level would
           threaten an entire nation.     The Republic of Maldives and other coral atoll
           nations are mostly less than two   meters above sea level.   Bangladesh, already
           overcrowded, would lose 20 percent of its land if sea level rose one meter.
           Although most of Egypt is well above sea level, its only inhabited area, the Nile
           Delta, is not.

                This chapter examines the consequences of future sea level rise.        After
           briefly summarizing the impacts of global warming on sea level, we describe the
           physical effects of sea level rise, their interactions with current activities,
           and the implications for particular nations.


           PAST AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

                Ocean levels have always fluctuated with changes in global temperatures.
           During the ice ages, when the Earth was 50C colder than today, much of the
           oceanis water was frozen in glaciers and sea level was often more than 100 meters
           below its current level (Bonn et al., 1962; Kennett, 1982; Oldale, 1985).
           Conversely,  during the last interglacial period (120,000 years ago) when the
           average temperature was 1-20C warmer than today, sea level was about 6 meters
           higher than today (Mercer, 1968).

                                                  63











              Problem Identification

                  When considering shorter periods of time, worldwide sea level rise must be
              distinguished from relative sea level rise. Although global warming would alter
              worldwide sea level, the rate of sea level rise relative to a particular coast
              has more practical importance and is all that monitoring stations can measure.
              Because most coasts are sinking (although a few are rising), relative sea level
              rise varies from more than one meter per century, in some areas with high rates
              of groundwater or mineral extraction, to a drop in extreme northern latitudes.
              Global sea level trends have been generally estimated by combining trends at
            ,tidal stations around the world. Studies combining these measurements suggest
              that during the last century, worldwide sea level has risen 10 to 25 centimeters
              (Fairbridge and Krebs, 1962; Barnett, 1984; Peltier and Tushingham, 1989).

                  Future global warming could raise sea level by expanding ocean water, by
              melting mountain glaciers, and eventually, by causing polar ice sheets in
              Greenland and Antarctica to melt or slide into the oceans.     Hughes (1983) and
              Bentley (1983) suggested that over a period of 200-500 years, it might be
              possible for global warming to induce a complete disintegration of the West
              Antarctic ice sheet, which would raise sea level about 6 meters. Most recent
              assessments, however, have focused on the rise that could occur in the next
              century.  As Figure 1 shows, the estimates are generally between 50 and 200
              centimeters, with recent estimates being at the low end of the range.

                  All assessments of future sea level rise have emphasized that much of the
              data necessary for accurate estimates are unavailable. As a result, studies of
              the possible impacts generally have used a range of scenari,DS. Nevertheless,
              for convenience of exposition, it is often necessary to refer to only a single
              estimate. For illustrative purposes, we follow the conventiOn of referring to
              a one-meter rise in sea level.



              PHYSICAL EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

                  We now examine the impact of sea level rise assuming that society's impact
              on the coastal environment does not change.        We first summarize the most
              important processes, then discuss a few examples of the interaction of these
              physical impacts with human activities.

              Processes

                  A rise in sea level would (1) inundate wetlands and lowlands, (2) erode
              shorelines, (3) exacerbate coastal flooding, (4) increase, the salinity of
              estuaries and aquifers and otherwise impair water quality, (5) alter tidal ranges
              in rivers and bays, (6) change the locations where rivers deposit sediment, (7)
              increase the heights of waves, and (8) decrease the amount of light reaching the
              bottoms.  Previous assessments have mostly focused on the first four factors
              (e.g., Barth and Titus, 1984; Dean et al., 1987).





                                                     64











                                                                                                                            Titus

                              4.0 -





                                                                                   a Hoffman (1983) High




                              3.0--



                         cc



                         o

                         uj
                         >             Glacier Volume Estimate of Polar            0 Hoffman (.1983) Mid-High
                         1--  2.0-     Board Augmented With Thermal
                         C             Expansion Estimates by NRC                  9 Meier (1985 ) High
                                       (1983)


                         U)                                           9 WMO (1986) High
                                                                                     Hoffman (1983) Mid-Low
                         LU

                         oil
                         -i

                         Ui   1.0


                                                                                   ï¿½ Revelle (11983)

                                                                                   ï¿½ Hoffman (1983) Low
                                       Past Century                                0 Meier (1985 )Low*
                                   i                                    WMO (1986) Low
                                   :   0.12 m Rls                                  I
                              0.0                       2000         2050       2100
                                                                  YEAR



                Figure 1. Estimates of future sea level rise.


                Inundation

                       "Inundation," the most obvious impact of sea level rise, refers both to the
                conversion of dryland to wetlands and to                       the conversion of wetlands to open
                                                                 * iWMO (1986.


                water. Consider a bay with a tide range of one meter and a parcel of dryland
                that is currently 75 centimeters above sea level, that is, 25 centimeters above
                high water.        If the sea rose 25 centimeters overnight, the land would be flooded
                at high tide and hence would convert to wetland, while a 125-cm rise would
                convert it to open water.

                                                                        65










               Problem Identification

                    Nature requires coastal wetlands and the dryland found on coral atolls,
               barri er i sl ands, and ri ver del tas to be just above sea I evel . If sea 1 evel ri ses
               slowly, as it has for the last several thousand years, these lands can keep pace
               with the sea: Wetlands collect sediment and produce peat that enable them to
               stay just above sea level; atoll islands are sustained by sand produced by the
               coral reefs; barrier islands migrate landward; and deltas are built up by the
               sediment washed down major rivers. If sea level rise accelerates, however, at
               least some of these lands will be lost.

                    A one-meter rise in sea level would inundate 17 percent of Bangladesh (Ali
               and Huq, 1989; see Figure 2), and a two-meter rise would inundate the capital and



                                                          BANGLADESH












                                                                   NS-V
                                                              /J






























                                                0 2D 40 W M IOMn


               Figure 2.  Impact of 3-m and 1-m relative sea level rise on Bangladesh. Because
               of current subsidence, a smaller rise in global sea level could cause this effect
               (Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies).

                                                       66











                                                                                                                                                         Titus

                   over half the populated islands of the atoll Republic of Maldives. Although the
                   land within a few meters of sea level accounts for a relatively small fraction
                   of the area of most nations, populations are often concentrated in the low areas
                   owing to the fertility of coastal lowlands, the historic reliance on water
                   transportation, and more recently, the popularity of living                                                             by the sea.
                   Shanghai and Lagos -- the largest cities of China and Nigeria -- are less than
                   two meters above sea level, as is 20 percent of the population and farmland of
                   Egypt (Broadus et al., 1986).

                           Coastal plains in general would be less vulnerable than atolls, deltas, and
                   barrier islands, because they typically range in elevation from zero to 70 meters
                   above sea level. Nevertheless, because they account for much more land and do
                   not keep pace with sea level, they would probably account for the majority of
                   dryland lost to inundation, particularly for a large rise in sea level. A recent
                   study of the United States illustrates the situation: If sea level rose 50 cm,
                   the Mississippi Delta alone would account for 35 percent of the nation's lost
                   dryland; but because a 50-cm rise (along with current subsidence) would inundate
                   most it, the delta would account for only 10 percent of U.S. dryland lost if sea
                   level rose 2 meters (U.S. EPA, 1989).

                           Unlike most dryland, all coastal wetlands can keep pace with a slow rate of
                   sea level rise. As Figure 3 shows, this ability has enabled the area of wetlands




                                                  5000 YEARS AGO                                                          TODAY




                                                                         SEA LEVEL                                                                   CURRENT
                                                                                                                                                     SEA LEVEL
                                                                                           SEDIMENTATION AND                     - - - - - - -       PAST
                                                                                           PEAT FORMATION                                            SEA LEVEL



                                                                                 FUTURE

                                                                                                        COMPLETE WETLAND LOSS WHERE HOUSE IS PROTECTED
                        SUBSTANTIAL WETLAND LOSS WHERE THERE IS VACANT UPLAND                           IN RESPONSE TO RISE IN SEA LEVEL



                                                                                                                                                   FUTURE
                                                                             SEA LEVEL                                                             SEA LEVEL
                                                                             FUTURE

                                                     - - - - - - - I - -     CURRENT                                     - - - - - - - - - -       CURRENT
                                                                             SEA LEVEL                                                             SEA LEVEL



                                 PEAT ACCUMULATION


                   Figure 3. Evolution of marsh as sea rises. Coastal marshes have kept pace with
                   the slow rate of sea level rise that has characterized the last several thousand
                   years. Thus, the area of marsh has expanded over time as new lands have been
                   inundated. If, in the future, sea level rises faster than the ability of the
                   marsh to keep pace, the marsh area will contract. Construction of bulkheads to
                   protect economic development may prevent new marsh from forming and result in a
                   total loss of marsh in some areas (Titus, 1986).

                                                                                        67










             Problem Identification

             to increase over the last several thousand years. However, most authors have
             concluded that wetlands could not keep pace with a significant acceleration in
             sea level rise (Kearney and Stevenson, 1985), and thus, that the area of wetlands
             converted to open water will be much greater than the area of dryland converted
             to wetlands (Titus et al., 1984; Park et al., 1986; Armentano et al., 1988).
             Moreover, in areas where dikes protect farmland or structures, all the wetlands
             could be lost (Titus, 1986, 1988).

                  Because they are found below the annual high tide, the most vulnerable
             wetlands would tend to be those in areas with tidal ranges of less than one
             meter, such as the Mediterranean and Black Seas, the Gulf of Mexico, and
             estuaries with narrow openings to the sea. The least vulnerable would be those
             in areas with large tidal ranges, such as the Bay of Fundy. Although areas with
             substantial sediment supplies could maintain more wetlands than those with little
             sediment, the percentage loss would not necessarily be less, since these areas
             currently have more wetlands.

             Erosion

                  In many areas, the total shoreline retreat from a one-meter rise would be
             much greater than suggested by the amount of land below the onE!-meter contour on
             a map, because shores would also erode. While acknowledging that erosion is also
             caused by many other factors, Bruun (1962) showed that as sea level rises, the
             upper part of the beach is eroded and deposited just offshore in a fashion that
             restores the shape of the beach profile with respect to sea level, as shown in
             Figure 4; the "Bruun Rule" implies that a one-meter rise would generally cause
             shores to erode 50 to 200 meters along sandy beaches, even if the visible portion
             of the beach is fairly steep.

                  On coastal barrier islands, wave erosion may transport sand in a landward
             as well as a seaward direction, a process commonly known as "overwash."         By
             gradually transporting it landward, overwash can enable a barrier island to rise
             with sea level, in a fashion similar to rolling up a rug, as shown in Figure 5.
             Leatherman (1979) suggests that barrier islands would generally erode from their
             ocean sides until reaching a width of 100-200 meters, at whic@i point they would
             wash over. Although barrier islands have been able to maintain themselves in
             this fashion with the relatively slow historic rate of sea level rise, coastal
             scientists are uncertain about the extent to which they could do so with a more
             rapid rise in sea level. In the Mississippi Delta, for example, where relative
             sea level has risen one meter in the last century, many barrier islands have
             gradually broken up and disintegrated.

                  Wetlands and other muddy coasts would be even more vulnerable to erosion.
             Under the Bruun formulation, erosion due to sea level rise is a self-limiting
             process: a given storm can wash up sand and pebbles only sever-al hundred meters
             before they settle out; the material thus remains in the beach system.          By
             contrast, muddy sediments can be carried great distances before settling out, and
             the peat that constitutes part of wetland coasts can oxidize into carbon dioxide,
             methane, and water (Reed, 1988).


                                                    68








                                                                                       Titus



                                 . . . . . . . . . ....................
                                   . . . . . . . . . . . . .

                                   N. . . . . . . . . .




                                                 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -







                                  ......... .



                                                                  PRE;I(FUS
                                                                  SEA LEVEL















                                            ez-



                                                                 2-.-7777=



          Figure 4. The Bruun Rule: (a) initial condition; (b) immediate inundation when
          sea level rises; and (c) subsequent erosion due to sea level rise. A rise in sea
          level immediately results in shoreline retreat due to inundation, shown in the
          first two examples.    However, a 1-meter rise in sea level implies that the
          offshore bottom must also rise I meter. The sand required to raise the bottom
          (X') can be supplied by beach nourishment.     Otherwise, waves will erode the
          necessary sand (X) from upper part of the beach as shown in (c) (Titus, 1986).


                            Initial Case












                            After Sea Level Rises



                                                        -----------------
                                                                 Previous Sea Level




          Figure 5.   Overwash:  natural response of undeveloped barrier islands to sea
          level rise.

                                                 69










              Prob7em Identification

                   The practical importance of distinguishing erosion from inundation varies
              (Park et al., 1989). Along the very low deltaic coasts, erosion would merely
              reclaim land for a few decades before it was inundated aryway.           On barrier
              islands and sandy cliffed coasts, however, where a one-meter rise would inundate
              only 5-20 meters of beach, erosion would account for the majority of land lost.
              Flooding

                   Sea level rise could increase the risk of flooding in four ways: (1) There
              would be  a higher base upon which storm surges would build. If sea level rises
              one meter, an area flooded with 50 cm of water every 20 years would now be
              flooded with 150 cm every 20 years; surges would also penetrate farther inland
              (Kana et al., 1984). (2) Beaches and sand dunes currently protect many areas
              from direct wave attack; by removing these protective barriers, erosion from sea
              level rise would leave some areas along ocean coasts more vulnerable.             (3)
              Mangroves and marshes slow the inland penetration of floodwater by increasing    the
              friction of estuaries and by blocking the waves; losses of wetlands would thus
              increase coastal flooding (Louisiana Wetland Protection Panell, 1988). finally,
              (4) Sea level rise could also increase flooding from rainstorms and river surges
              as a result of decreased drainage (Titus et al., 1987).

                   The higher base for storm surges would be particularly important in areas
              where hurricanes are frequent, such as islands in the Caribbean Sea, the
              southeastern United States, and the Indian subcontinent; if flood defenses were
              not already erected,     London and the Netherlands would also be at risk as a
              result of winter storms. By contrast, because storm surges in these areas are
              rarely more than 50 centimeters, flood damage would not be a major problem for
              the Maldives (though the absence of high ground for evacuation would justify
              treating the risk seriously). Erosion would be particularly important on U.S.
              barrier islands, many of which have houses within 30 meters of the shore at high
              tide. Because mangroves provide the major protection against flooding for many
              countries too poor to erect flood defenses, wetland loss could be a major problem
              there.   Reduced drainage would be a chief concern in coastal areas frequently
              flooded by river surges -- particularly deltas -- as well as other flat areas
              such as the Florida Everglades, where water lingers several days after a
              rainstorm.

                   Floods in Bangladesh would be worse for all of these reasons.     In 1971, the
              storm surge from a cyclone killed 300,000 people. Much of the country is flooded
              by surges in both the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers; when the surges coincided
              in 1987, about one-third of the country was under           water.    Although the
              government has found it difficult to prevent people from cutting them down,
              mangroves still provide important        flood protection buffers.      Should the
              mangroves die, the outer     islands erode, natural drainage !decline, and storm
              surges rise a meter higher than today, much of the land not lost to inundation
              would still experience consequences of sea level rise.

              Saltwater Intrusion and Other Impacts on Water Quality

                   Sea level rise would generally enable saltwater to advance inland in both
              aquifers and estuaries. In estuaries, the gradual flow of freshwater toward the

                                                       70











                                                                                        Titus

           oceans is the only factor preventing the estuary from having the same salinity
           as the ocean.   Prevailing salinities result from the overall balance between
           freshwater and processes that bring saltwater into the estuary such as tidal
           mixing and advection. A rise in sea level would increase salinity in open bays
           because the increased cross-sectional area would slow the average speed at which
           freshwater flows to the ocean (see Figure 6).

                Wetlands could experience increased salinity even if the salinity of the
           adjacent bay did not increase.     In many areas, wetland zonation depends on
           proximity to open water, with salt marshes and salt-tolerant mangroves adjacent
           to the bay, brackish wetlands farther inland, and freshwater marshes and swamps
           still farther inland. If sea level rise inundates the most seaward wetlands, the
           inland wetlands will be much closer to the bay, and hence exposed to higher
           salinities. Although salt-tolerant species may be able to replace the freshwater
           species, cypress swamps and floating freshwater marshes often lack a suitable
           base for salt-tolerant wetlands, and saltwater intrusion is already converting
           wetlands to open water lakes in Louisiana (Wicker et al., 1980).


         Initial Condition














                                                                           Freshwater

                                                                           Saltwater


        After Sea Level Rise





                                                        ..........

                                          ... ..... .. ..















           Figure 6. Increasing bay salinity due to sea level rise.

                                                   71











               Problem Identification

                    Sea level rise could increase groundwater salinity for -two reasons. First,
               some aquifers pumped well below sea level by human activities are recharged by
               currently fresh rivers; if sea level rise enables saltwater to advance farther
               up the Delaware River during droughts, for example, salty water would recharge
               the aquifers in central New Jersey, rendering its watE!r unfit for human
               consumption (Hull and Titus, 1986).

                    More common would be the problem confronting communities that rely on
               unconfined aquifers just above sea level.      Generally, these aquifers have a
               freshwater "lens" floating on top of the heavier saltwater. According to the
               Ghyben-Herzberg (Herzberg, 1961) principle, if the top of the aquifer is one
               meter above sea level, the interface between fresh and saltwater is 40 meters
               below sea level. If sea level rises one meter, aquifers will usually rise one
               meter as well (Figure 7A-B).    In areas where the freshwater always extends 40
               meters below sea level, this situation would pose little problem.

                    In many areas, however, freshwater supplies are not so plentiful. Droughts
               and wells can deplete the lens to a meter or less.         Thus, wells that are
               currently able to draw freshwater during a drought would be too deep if sea level
               rose one meter. Fortunately, in areas with several meters of elevation, there
               would still be as much freshwater; people would merely have to drill new wells.
               In the lowest-lying areas, however, the actual amount of freshwater under the
               ground would decline; the Ghyben-Herzberg principle implies that if the top of
               the freshwater lens does not rise, the bottom of the lens will rise 40 times as
               much as the sea (7B-C).

                    Consider the island of Tulhadoo (Republic of Maldives), which is entirely
               less than 50 centimeters above high tide.      Even when the ground is entirely
               saturated, the lens can extend no more than 50 centimeters above sea level. But
               the permeable coral material of the island allows much of this water to drain
               fairly rapidly after storms, and evaporation and transpiration further lower
               the water table during the typical dry season. As a result, the freshwater lens
               is so small that people must obtain water by digging a hole, withdrawing a liter
               or so of water, and refilling the hole, perhaps coming back the next day. A one-
               meter rise in sea level would leave many more islands with this situation.

                    Sea 1 evel ri se coul d impai r water qual i ty i n other ways as wel 1 . Sal twater
               intrusion could impair the effectiveness of septic tanks, while reduced drainage
               could decrease dilution of the wastes and enable the septic discharges to remain
               longer in the vicinity of wells. Reduced drainage could diminish the dilution
               of wastes in rivers, and in some cases might enable them to flow upstream and
               contaminate freshwater intakes.     Higher water levels would compel municipal
               authorities to close existing tidal gates more often, which would reduce
               flushing.

                    By deepening shallow bodies of water, sea level rise could cause them to
               stagnate. Fish ponds in Malaysia, the Philippines, and China have been designed
               so that the tides provide sufficient      mixing; deeper ponds, however, would
               require more flushing. In the United States, many coastal housing developments
               have finger canals to enable residents to park boats in their backyards. While

                                                      72











                                                                                                                                   Titus


                                   A


                                                                                                       Upper limit of
                                                                                                       water table







                                                 ..........                              ..




                                                                      . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..





                                   B










                                             Operating
                                             Well                                                             ater  lil -
                                                                                                       Fre

                                                                                                       Sal
                                             Abandoned
                                                                                                              ter
                                             well




                                   C



                                                                                                              IMMM'
                                                                                                                 'g


                                                                                                              'p=o@










                                                                                                     ....................



             Figure 7.        Impacts of sea level rise on groundwater tables.                                (A-B) According to
             the Ghyben-Herzberg relation, the freshwater/saltwater interface is 40 cm below
             sea level for every cm by which the top of the water table lies above sea level.
             When water tables are well below the surface, a rise in sea level simply raises
             the water table and the fresh/salt interface by an equal amount. Where water
             tables are near the surface, however, drainage and evapotranspiration may prevent
             the water table from rising.                     In such a case (C), the freshwater table could
             narrow greatly with a rise in sea level: for every 1-cm rise in sea level, the
             fresh/salt interface would rise 41 cm.
                                                                                                           h


                                                                                                             ra









                                                                            .......... .. ..





































                                                                         73










             Prob7em Identification


             the current practice of keeping them less than two meters deep prevents
             stagnation today, it may not in the future if sea level rise! deepens them to
             three meters.

             Secondary Impacts

                 A number of    other impacts of sea level rise that aria unimportant by
             themselves may be  important because of their impacts on inundation, erosion,
             flooding, and saltwater intrusion. We briefly discuss changes in tidal ranges,
             sedimentation, and reduced light reaching the bottom.

                 Sea level rise could change tidal ranges by (1) removing barriers to tidal
             currents and (2) changing the resonance      frequencies of tidal basins.      Many
             estuaries have tidal ranges far lower than found on the open coast because of
             narrow inlets and other features that slow tidal currents; if sea level rise
             inundates wetlands or erodes the ends of barrier islands, more water may flow
             into and out of some estuaries and thereby increase the tidal range.

                 The implications of sea level rise for tidal resonance, however, is more
             ambiguous. The Bay of Fundy, for example, has a tidal range of 15 meters because
             the resonance frequency of the bay itself is very close to the diurnal frequency
             of the astronomic tides on the ocean; the bay tends to increase the amplitude of
             the tides. (One can simulate this effect by moving a hand back and forth in a
             filled bathtub at different rates; at certain speeds -- the resonance frequency
             of the tub -- the waves wash much higher than at other speeds.)          Scott and
             Greenburg (1983) note that the one-meter rise in sea level over the last few
             centuries has altered the resonance frequency of the bay enough to increase the
             tidal range by about a meter. This is just a coincidence, however; it is just
             as likely that changes in sea level will shift resonance frequencies in a way
             that reduces the tidal range.     Nevertheless, tidal ranges also appear to be
             increasing along the North Sea coast (Bruun, 1986).

                 Changes in tides could alter all of the basic processes discussed so far.
             A greater tidal range would increase the inundation of dryland, while increasing
             (or limiting the loss) of intertidal wetlands.    Besides eroding inlets, greater
             tidal currents would tend to form larger ebb tidal deltas, providing a sink for
             sand washing along the shore and thereby causing additional erosion. Flooding
             due to storm surges would also increase: other than resonance, the bathymetric
             changes that might amplify or mitigate tides would. have the same impact on storm
             surges.  Finally, higher tidal ranges would further increase the salinity in
             estuaries because of increased tidal mixing.

                 Under natural conditions, most of the sediment washing down rivers is
             deposited in the estuary because of settling   and flocculation. Settling occurs
             downstream from the head-of-tide because the slowly moving water characterized
             by estuaries cannot carry as much sediment as a flowing river. Flocculation is
             a process by which salty water induces easily  entrained fine-grained sediment to
             coalesce into larger globs that settle out. A rise in sea level would cause both
             of these processes to migrate upstream, and would thereby assist the ability of

                                                     74











                                                                                        Titus

          wetlands in the upper parts 3@ estuarles to keep pace with sea level, while
          hindering their ability in the 13tier parts.

               A rise in sea level would also increase the size of waves.         In shallow
          areas, the depth of the water itself I imits the size of waves; hence deeper water
          would permit larger waves. Moreover, erosion and inundation would increase the
          fetch over which waves develop (i.e., the width of the estuary). Finally, the
          breakup of barrier islands would enable ocean waves to enter some estuaries.

               Larger waves could be the most important impact of sea level rise along
          shallow (e.g., less than 30 cm at low tide) tidal creeks with steep, muddy
          shores. The steep slopes imply that inundation would not be a problem. However,
          with water depths one meter deeper, waves could form that were large enough to
          significantly erode the muddy shores.      Bigger waves could also increase the
          vulnerability of lands protected by coral reefs.      In many areas, these reefs
          protect mangrove swamps or sandy islands from the direct attack by ocean waves;
          but deeper water would reduce the reef's ability to act as a breakwater. The
          extent to which this would occur depends on the ability of the coral to keep pace
          with sea level rise.

               Finally, sea level rise could decrease the amount of light reaching water
          bottoms.   The depth at which submerged aquatic vegetation can grow depends
          primarily on how much light reaches the bottom. Corals in clear water can grow
          10 meters below the surface, whiie the more productive vegetation in some turbid
          areas is generally found in water less than 2 meters deep.        By limiting the
          ability of light to reach the bottom, deeper water would reduce the productivity
          of virtually all submerged vegetation to some degree.

               In atolls, coral reefs supply the sand necessary to keep the islands from
          being eroded and inundated.        In the long run, any limitation of coral
          productivity could increase the risk that these islands will be eroded or
          inundated.

          Other Impacts of Global Warminq

               One must consider the implications of sea level rise in the context of other
          impacts of global warming, which could alter all of the impacts except
          inundation.    Warmer temperatures could convert marshes to mangroves.            if
          hurricanes or storms become more severe (Emmanuel, 1988), flooding and erosion
          will be worse. More droughts would exacerbate salinity and other water quality
          problems, while if droughts become less frequent, most salinity problems
          associated with sea level rise might be completely offset. Low islands, However,
          are an important exception; if an island with a few meters' elevation comes to
          resemble Tulado in the Maldives, wells     will be of little use during the dry
          season.


          Interaction with Human Activities

               The impacts of sea level rise cannot be fully understood without some
          discussion of human activities in the coastal zone, the ways humanity has already

                                                  75











              Problem Identification

              disrupted natural coastal environments (partly in response to historic sea level
              rise), and the activities that can be expected if current policies continue..

                   In this section, we focus primarily on the implications for (1) river
              deltas, (2) other wetland shorelines, (3) beach resorts, and (4) coastal cities.

              River Deltas

                   Most of the basic processes described above would manifest themselves in
              river deltas.    Because deltaic wetlands and lowlands were created by the
              deposition of river sediments, these lands are generally within a few meters of
              sea level and hence vulnerable to inundation, erosion, and flooding.       During
              droughts, saltwater intrusion is already a problem in many of these areas.
              Nevertheless, under natural conditions, the sediment washing down the river could
              enable at least a significant fraction of the typical delta to keep pace with sea
              level rise.

                   Human activities in many deltas, however, have disabled the natural ability
              of deltas to create land. Over the last few thousand years the Chinese -- and
              over the last few hundred years the Dutch -- have erected sea dikes and river
              levees to prevent flooding from storm and river surges. As a result, the annual
              floods no longer overflow the river banks, and as sea level rises, it has left
              the adjacent land below sea water level, necessitating more coastal defense to
              prevent the land from being inundated as sea level rises.

                   Over the last century, the United States has sealed off Mississippi River
              distributaries, forcing the flow of water through a few main channels, to prevent
              sedimentation in shipping lanes.    More recently, river levees have also been
              constructed.   Unlike the Chinese and Dutch deltas, however-, the Mississippi
              Delta is not encircled with dikes; as sea level rises and the deltaic mud
              settles, Louisiana is losing 100 square miles of land per year (Louisiana Wetland
              Protection Panel, 1988). In Egypt, the Aswan Dam prevents the Nile River from
              overflowing its banks, and its delta is now beginning to erode as well (Broadus
              et-al., 1986). Similarly, a major dam on the Niger River is causing the coast
              of Nigeria to erode 10-40 meters per year (Ibe and Awosika, 1989).

                   The natural land-building processes in some major deltas, are still allowed
              to operate. Most notable is Bangladesh, located in the delta of the Ganges and
              Brahmaputra Rivers. About 20 percent of the nation is less than one meter above
              sea level, and close to one-third of the nation is regularly flooded by annual
              river surges.   People in agricultural areas are generally accustomed to the
              flooding, which in addition to depositing sediment provides farmland with
              important nutrients. Nevertheless, floods have disrupted the capital, and the
              government is considering river levees to curtail flooding.

                   Paradoxically, a one-meter rise in sea level threatens to permanently
              inundate deltas that are protected from river flooding, while protected areas may
              be able to avoid inundation through natural, sedimentation.     Nevertheless, at
              least parts of these deltas would probably be inundated. In the case of


                                                     76











                                                                                        Titus

          overcrowded nations such as Bangladesh, the resulting migration away from the
          coast may exacerbate social tensions and possibly result in massive emigration.

          Other Wetland Shorelines

               Although human activities would have the greatest impact on deltaic
          wetlands, they would also influence the ability of other coastal wetlands to
          survive a rising sea level.     Perhaps most important, ecosystems could shift
          landward under natural conditions in most areas. However, in many areas people
          have already developed the adjacent dryland onto which the ecosystem would have
          to migrate.   If these areas are protected with bulkheads or levees, the wetlands
          will be squeezed between the rising sea and the flood-protection structure.

               Current efforts to control water pollution may have a beneficial impact on
          wetlands.   Healthy marshes and swamps in unpolluted estuaries would be more
          likely to maintain the vertical accretion rates necessary to keep pace with sea
          level rise.    Furthermore, to prevent estuaries from being polluted by septic
          tanks, some jurisdictions require houses to be set back 50-100 meters from the
          wetlands; these setbacks will leave some room for landward migration.

          Beach Resorts

               Along the ocean coasts of Australia, Brazil, Nigeria, Portugal, the United
          States, and many other nations, one of the most important impacts of sea level
          rise would be the threat to recreational beach communities. Particularly in the
          United States, even a small rise in sea level would           erode the existing
          recreational beaches and leave oceanfront houses standing in  the water. In areas
          where these buildings are protected by seawalls, the entire beach would vanish,
          removing the primary reason people visit these communities    in the first place.

               Moreover, many resorts are located on barrier islands where typical
          elevations are only one or two meters above sea level. Although natural barrier
          islands can migrate landward, developed barrier islands do not, both because
          structures prevent the landward transport of sand and because public works
          departments tend to bulldoze back onto the beach whatever sand is washed
          landward. Thus, in addition to oceanside erosion, the low bay sides of these
          islands would be threatened with inundation.

          Coastal Cities

               Throughout history, small towns have often been relocated in response to
          erosion and sea level rise; but cities have generally erected the structures
          necessary to remain in their current locations. One can reasonably expect that
          sea level rise will force Dakka, Lagos, Shanghai, and Miami to erect the dikes
          and pumping systems necessary to avoid inundation.            While the primary
          socioeconomic impact in industrialized nations many be higher taxes, budgets in
          developing nations may be constrained, forcing them to reduce expenditures
          on health, education, economic development, and other requirements.



                                                  77










              Problem Identification

                   Many cities not immediately threatened with inundation would be flooded,
              While flood defense is possible, the history of coastal protection suggests that
              this generally will happen only after a disaster or near -cat astrophe demonstrates
              the need for these projects; one can only hope that the latter occurs first.
              Case studies in the United States suggest that areas flooded once or twice a
              century today will be flooded every decade if sea level rises one meter (Barth
              and Titus, 1984).

              Environmental Implications

                   The impacts of sea level rise on ecosystems can be broadly classified into
              effects of (1) wetland loss, (2) salinity increases, and (3) beach erosion.

                   Estuarine fisheries depend on coastal wetlands because they account for a
              major fraction of primary productivity and because they provide important
              nurseries owing to their ability to protect fish larvae and juveniles from
              predators. Although primary productivity depends on the total area of wetlands,
              the productivity of fisheries is widely believed to depend more on the total,
              length of wetland/water interfaces (Browder et al., 1985); unless there is a
              channel through the wetlands, fish rarely swim more than a few tens of meters
              into the wetlands.

                   Al though sea 1 evel ri se woul d reduce the area of wetl ands,, at f i rst i t woul d
              tend to increase the length of the wetland/water interface. Figure 8 illustrates
              the disintegration of the birdfoot delta of the Mississippi River, where many
              researchers believe that wetland loss temporarily improved fish catches. In the
              long run, however, the decline in wetland area will eventually decrease the total
              length of the interface, with a roughly proportional impact on estuarine
              fisheries.

                   In industrialized nations, the decline of these fisheries would imply higher
              prices for shrimp, crab, flounder, and other fish that depend on marshes for
              parts of their life cycles, as well as chicken, which are often fed fishmeal from
              estuarine species. In some developing nations, however, the decline in these
              fisheries could threaten subsidence.

                   Increasing estuarine salinity would also threaten some seafood species,
              largely because the major predators of these species are unable to tolerate
              freshwater. Even today, excessive salinity during droughts has been a
              contributing factor in the decline of oyster harvests in the Delaware and
              Chesapeake Bays (Gunter, 1974; Hull and Tortoriello, 1979).

                   Under natural conditions, a rise in sea level would not threaten life along
              the beach; ecosystems would merely migrate landward. However, the presence of
              buildings behind the beaches would often prevent landward migration. Along the
              coast of Florida, for example, beach erosion is already forcing sea turtles in
              some areas to build their nests under people's houses.




                                                      78










                                                                                       Titus



              ACTIVE DELTA   1958                               ACTIVE DELTA 1978





    AIX---
                                  .-P                @fu    A_


        'k


                                                                Ige





                                                                       Legend
                                               Scale               Symbol  Habitat Type
                                         IS 0 2.S 5.0 7.5 10.0               Marsh
                                                                             Forested Welland
                                               Miles                El       Upland
                                                                    13       Dredge Deposit


         Figure 8. Wetland loss at the mouth of the Mississippi River (National Coastal
         Ecosystems Team, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service).


         SOCIOECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR PARTICULAR NATIONS

              We now examine the implications for two nations: the United States and the
         Republic of Maldives. Future drafts of this paper for the IPCC work group and
         report will have a more balanced treatment.

         United States

              If no measures were taken to counteract its effect, a one-meter rise in sea
         level would inundate 7,000 square miles of coastal lowlands and a similar area
         of wetlands. Recreational beaches in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic would erode
         about 50-100 meters, while those in the Southeast and west coast would erode
         100-200 meters (Titus, 1986).    Moreover, coastal cities such as      Charleston,
         South Carolina, and Galveston, Texas, would experience three times as much damage
         from a 10-year storm than they do today (Kana et al., 1984; Leatherman, 1984).
         Finally, saltwater migrating upstream in the Sacramento Delta, Delaware River,

                                                 79










             Problem Identification

             and the Everglades would threaten the water supplies of southern California,
             Philadelphia, New York, and Miami, respectively (Williams, 1989; Hull and Titus,
             1986, Miller et al., 1989).

                  Because the United States is a wealthy nation, the cost of protecting
             developed areas from a rise in sea level would generally be affordable. Spread
             over the course of a century, the $100 billion necessary to protect the 700
             square miles of most densely developed areas would amount to approximately $3,000
             dollars per acre per year -- hardly a welcome prospect, yet hardly beyond the
             taxing powers of local governments given current property values, which
             frequently exceed $1 million per acre on barrier islands and are rarely less than
             $200,000 per acre in developed areas.

                  The most notable exception is the Mississippi River Delta, which would
             account for 20 percent of the dryland and half of the wetland lost. Whether the
             area is protected with dikes or the land is allowed to vanish, the loss of
             wetlands and the fisheries that depend on them would drive traditional Cajun
             fishermen away to more fertile areas or into new professions. While the music
             and cooking the Cajuns have contributed to American society would         probably
             endure, the core of the culture has been life in the       marshes and swamps of
             Louisiana; without the homeland of their heritage, the ability of Cajuns to
             maintain a distinct cultural identity is doubtful.      Only by dismantling the
             infrastructure that has disabled natural deltaic processes could these wetlands
             survive; doing so, however, would force ships bound to the Port of New Orleans
             to pass through a set of locks, causing delays that under current policies are
             even less acceptable (Louisiana Wetland Protection Panel, 19138).

                  Even in Louisiana, the major socioeconomic impact would not be the economic
             impact of sea level rise, but its environmental implications. Although wetland
             loss elsewhere would not be on such a massive scale, over half the wetlands in
             most estuaries would be lost. In many areas, the wetlands would erode up to a
             bulkhead protecting development, making it impossible for many fish to find the
             marshes necessary for reproduction (Titus, 1988). Sport fishing and duck hunting
             would decline; the general population would notice the impacts as prices of
             crabs, shrimp, and other estuarine species began to reflect 'levels of scarcity
             that already apply to oysters and lobsters.

                  So far, the news media have focused the most on implications for barrier
             islands and other beach resorts.    Unless remedial measures are taken, even a
             small rise in sea level would substantially increase the vulnerability of these
             communities, which already face the risk of being devastated if a major
             hurricane crosses their paths.     These risks would be further compounded if
             hurricanes become more intense as a result of global warming. Nevertheless, the
             value Americans place on owning or renting a seaside cottage suggests that the
             measures necessary to defend these resorts from sea level rise would be
             affordable.






                                                    80










                                                                                            Titus

         Republic of Maldives

               This island nation consists entirely of coral atolls.          As a result, the
         entire nation is less than four meters above high water. Several of its most
         populated islands, including the capital, are less than two meters above high
         tide; and some islands are less than 50 centimeters above high tide.

               Over 90 percent of the islands are uninhabited. Because storm surges rarely
         exceed 25 centimeters, people hardly considered elevation in deciding which
         islands to settle.    In the Baa Atoll, for example, Tulhadoo, about 40 cm above
         high water, has five times the population of the similarly sized island of Goia,
         which has elevations greater than three meters. The most important distinction
         today is that the higher islands have ample groundwater, while lower islands have
         little if any during parts of the year. Thus, the most immediate impact of sea
         level rise would be to further diminish the availability of freshwater.
               If sea  level rises a meter, the lower islands would be threatened with
         inundation.    Although it would be possible to move to higher areas, people
         outside the   capital are generally so attached to their home islands that many
         have visited other islands only a few times in their lives; efforts to encourage
         migration to less developed islands are generally recognized as a major factor
         contributing   to the downfall of their previous president.

               In the very long run, the Maldives could survive a rising sea level only if
         measures were taken to elevate the islands.       Fortunately, the nation would have
         to focus only on protecting land for industrial and residential uses; the greater
         areas necessary for food production in their case refer primarily to the sea
         itself, which is largely unaffected by changes in sea level.              Despite the
         potential for remedial measures, the prospect of the entire nation being
         inundated motivated the president of this nation to become the first head of
         state to address the United Nations and the British Commonwealth on the
         implications of global warming.


         BIBLIOGRAPHY

         Ali, S. I. and S. Huq. 1989.     International Sea Level Rise: National Assessment
         of Effects and Possible Response for Bangladesh.        College Park: University of
         Maryland Center for Global Change.

         Armentano, T.V., R.A. Park, and C.L. Cloonan.           1988.     Impacts on Coastal
         Wetlands Throughout the United States.       In: Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise,
         and Coastal Wetlands.      J.G. Titus, ed.     Washington, DC:     U.S. Environmental
         Protection Agency.

         Barnett, T.P. 1984.      The estimation of global sea level change: A problem of
         uniqueness.     Journal of Geophysical Research 89(C5):7980-7988.

         Barth, M.C. and J.G. Titus, eds. 1984. Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise:
         A Challenge for This Generation. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.

                                                   81










            Problem Identification

            Broadus, J.M., J.D. Milliman, S.F. Edwards, D.G. Aubrey, and F. Gable. 1986.
            Rising sea level and damming of rivers:             possible effects in Egypt and
            Bangladesh.    In: Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate.
            J.G. Titus,  ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and United
            Nations Environment Program.

            Browder, J.A., H.A. Bartley, and K.S. Davis. 1985.       A probabilistic model of the
            relationship between marshland-water interface and marsh disintegration.
            Ecological Modelling 29:245-260.

            Bruun, P.    1962.     Sea level rise as a cause of shore erosion.          Journal of
            Waterways and Harbors Division (ASCE) 1:116-130.

            Dean, R.G., et al. 1987. Responding to Changes in Sea Level. Washington, DC:
            National Academy Press.

            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1989. Potential Impacts of Global Climate
            Change on the United States.       J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds.       Washington, DC:
            Government Printing Office.

            Emmanuel , K.A.    1988.     The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate.
            Nature 326:483-85.

            Fairbridge, R.W., and W.S. Krebs, Jr.          1962.     Sea level and the southern
            oscillation.     Geophysical Journal 6:532-545.

            Fuhrboter, A. and J. Jensen. 1985.         Longterm changes of tidal regime in the
            German Bight.      In:    Coastal Zone '85.    O.T. Magoon et al., eds.      New York:
            American Society of Civil Engineers.

            Gornitz, V., S. Lebedeff, and J. Hansen. 1982.         Global sea level trend in the
            past century.     Science 215:1611-14

            Herzberg, A.    1961.     Die Wasserverversorgung Einiger Nordseebader, Munich.
            Journal Gasbeleuchtung Wasserversorgung 44:815-819, 842-844.

            Hoffman, J.S., D. Keyes, and J.G. Titus. 1983. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise
            Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

            Hoffman, J.S., J. Wells, and J.G. Titus.       1986.   Future global warming and sea
            level rise.     In: Iceland Coastal and River Symposium. G. Sigbjarnarson, ed.
            Reykjavik: National Energy Authority.

            Hull, C.H.J. and J.G. Titus, eds. 1986. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and
            Salinity in the Delaware Estuary. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection
            Agency and Delaware River Basin Commission.

            Hull, C.H.J., and R.C. Tortoriello. 1979. Sea Level Trend and Salinity in the
            Delaware Estuary.      Staff Report.    West Trenton, N.J.:      Delaware River Basin
            Commission.

                                                       82











                                                                                             Titus

          Ibe, A.C., and L.F. Awosika.       1989.    National Assessment and Effects of Sea
          Level Rise on the Nigerian Coastal Zone.       College Park: University of Maryland
          Center for Global Change.

          Kana, T.W., J. Michel, M.O. Hayes, and J.R. Jensen. 1984.          The physical impact
          of sea level rise in the area of Charleston, South Carolina.           In: Greenhouse
          Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for This Generation.          M. Barth and J.G.
          Titus, eds. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.

          Kana, T.W., et al.      1986.    Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Wetlands
          Around Charleston, South Carolina.           Washington, DC:       U.S. Environmental
          Protection Agency.

          Kana, T.W., W.C. Eiser, B.J. Baca, and M.L. Williams. 1988.            New Jersey case
          study.   In:   Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands.             J.G.
          Titus, ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

          Kearney, M.S. and J.C. Stevenson.       1985.     Sea level rise and marsh vertical
          accretion rates in Chesapeake Bay.       In: Coastal Zone '85.    O.T. Magoon et al.,
          eds. New York: American Scociety of Civil Engineers.

          Ku, L.F., D.A. Greenberg, C.J.R. Garrett, and F.W. Dodson.              1985.      Nodal
          modulation of the lunar semidiurnal tide in the Bay of Fundy and        Gulf of Maine.
          Science 230:69-71.

          Kyper, T., and R. Sorensen. 1985.       Potential impacts of selected    sea level rise
          scenarios on the beach and coastal works at Sea Bright, New Jersey. In: Coastal
          Zone 185.    O.T. Magoon et al . , eds.      New York:    American Society of Civil
          Engineers.

          Leatherman, S. P.     1984.     Coastal geomorphic responses to sea level rise:
          Galveston Bay, Texas.      In: Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge
          for This Generation.     M. Barth and J.G. Titus, eds.       New York:    Van Nostrand
          Reinhold.

          Leatherman, S.P. 1979.       Migration of Assateague Island by inlet and overwash
          processes. Geology 7:104-107.

          Louisiana Wetland Protection Panel. 1987. Saving Louisiana's Wetlands: The
          Need for a Long-Term Plan of Action.          Washington, DC:      U.S. Environmental
          Protection Agency.

          Mei er, M. F. , et al . 1985. GI aci ers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level . Wash i ngton, DC:
          National Academy Press.

          Park, R.A., T.V. Armentano, and C.L. Cloonan. 1986.          Predicting the effect of
          sea level rise on coastal wetlands.        In: Effects of Changes in Stratospheric
          Ozone and Global Climate. J.G. Titus, ed. Washington, DC:           U.S. Environmental
          Protection Agency and United Nations Environment Programme.


                                                     83











                Prob7em Identification

                Park, R.A., M.S. Treehan, P.W. Mausel, and R.C. Howe. 1989.            The effects of sea
                level rise on U.S. coastal wetlands.         In: Potential Effects of Global Climate
                Change on the United States. J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds. Washington, DC: U.S.
                Environmental Protection Agency.

                Peltier and Tushingham.        1989.      Global sea level rise and the greenhouse
                effect: might they be connected? Science 244:806.

                Reed, D.J. 1988.      Sediment dynamics and deposition in a retreating coastal salt
                marsh.    Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Sciences 26:67-79.

                Revel I e, R.    1983.      Probable future changes in sea level resulting from
                increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.         In:   Changing Climate. Washington, DC:
                National Academy Press.

                Scott, D.B. and D.A. Greenberg.          1983.     Relative sea level rise and tidal
                development in the Fundy tidal systems.            Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences
                20:1554-1564.

                Titus, J.G.     1984.     Planning for sea level rise before and after a coastal
                disaster.     In:  Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise:           A Challenge for This
                Generation. M. Barth and J.G. Titus, eds. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.

                Titus, J.G.      1986.      Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal zone
                managment.     Coastal Management 14:3.

                Titus, J.G., ed. 1988. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands.
                Washington,   DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

                Titus, J.G.     1990.   Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and barrier islands.
                Coastal Management 18:1.

                Titus, J.G., T. Henderson, and J.M. Teal..1984.            Sea level rise and wetlands
                loss in the United States.        National Wetlands Newsletter 6:4.

                Titus, J.G., C.Y. Kuo, M.J. Gibbs, T.B. LaRoche, M.K. Webb, and J.0. Waddell.
                1987.   Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems. Journal
                of Water Resources Planning and Management 113:2.

                Thomas, R.H. 1985. Responses of the polar ice sheets to climatic warming.                In:
                Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level.            Meier, et al., eds. Washington, DC:
                National Academy Press.

                Wicker, K., M. DeRouen, D. O'Connor, E. Roberts, and J. Wastson.                       1980.
                Environmental Characterization of Terrebonne Parish: 1955-1978. Baton Rouge, LA:
                Coastal Environments, Inc.

                Wilcoxen, P.J.     1986.    Coastal erosion and sea level rise::        implications for
                ocean beach and San Francisco's Westside Transport Project.                  Coastal Zone
                Management Journal 14:3.

                                                            84











                                                                                             Titus

          Wendland, W.M.     1977.     Tropical storm frequencies related to sea surface
          temperatures.    Journal of Applied Meteorology 16:480.

          Williams, P.     The impacts of climate change on the salinity of San Francisco
          Bay.    In: Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on the United States.
          J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds.       Washington, DC:    U.S. Environmental Protection
          Agency.










































                                                    85










           REASONS FOR BEING CONCERNED ABOUT RISING SEA LEVEL



                                     DR. LOUIS W. BUTLER
                                     Director of Planning
                                    National Ocean Service
                    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                                         Washington, DC





           A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE


           Value of the Coastal Zone

                This paper lays out the resources at risk to a rise in sea level . The
           local economies of virtually all coastal communities rely heavily on the
           quality of their estuaries and adjacent coastal areas.      Coastal habitats
           such as wetlands, dunes, and beaches are important areas for fish and
           wildlife, including many endangered species, as well as for many types of
           recreation.

                Coastal zones provide critical habitat for commercially important
           fisheries, filter and process agricultural and industrial wastes, buffer
           inland areas against storm and wave damage, and help generate revenues from
           a variety of commercial and recreational activities.              Commercial,
           recreational, and subsistence fisheries are, at the very least, important
           to the economies of most nations and are the lifeblood of many others.

           Uses of the Coastal Zone Today

                In many parts of the world, as a result of population growth and
           development, the natural function of coastal zones and their resources is
           being degraded and impaired.     This is particularly apparent in deltaic
           regions served by large rivers and inhabited by large human populations.

                River deltas are vulnerable to the activities of upstream states. For
           example, activities by India, Nepal, China, and Bhutan all affect the flow
           and water quality characteristics of the Ganges, which is felt downstream
           by Bangladesh.    Disputes arise over the construction of dams on major
           rivers, over the use of major tributaries, and over river diversions.
           Upstream activities can affect water availability, the ecology of the delta,
           and the formation and subsidence rates of the delta, which normally offers
           some protection from storm surges and sea level rise.         Other obvious
           examples are the Nile and the Mississippi Deltas.

                                                87










               Problem IdentiFication



                    Decreased or diverted riverflow also can lead to increased saltwater
               intrusion and thus to drastically altered biological productivity.
               Declining health of salt-sensitive mangrove forests may lead to loss of
               habitat for many species of fish and shellfish and to increased loss of
               entrapped sediments.

                    Removal of groundwater or hydrocarbons from deltas can accelerate
               greatly the rate of local subsidence. Subsidence in low-lying deltas, either
               natural or exacerbated by fluid withdrawal, can accentuate greatly the
               apparent local rise in sea level. Clearly, coastal and fluvial planning for
               future coastal zone uses requires careful attention in view of potential
               human-induced changes in global climate and associated sea level rise.

               Potential Threats

                    Most shorelines have already experienced significant and almost
               constant change, with enormous commercial, recreational, and environmental
               values at risk.    Flooding, beach erosion, habitat modification and loss,
               structural damage, and silting and shoaling (resulting from natural factors)
               all pose major public safety and economic consequences. Yet, while these
               risks are substantial, the benefits of coastal resources in many areas
               significantly outweigh them and continue to attract human activity and
               development. When a human-induced, accelerated rise in global sea level is
               added to the equation, however, the potential for loss of life, injury, and
               economic damage increases.

                    Some general observations can be made about the differences in
               vulnerability to sea level rise of industrialized and developing countries.
               Most major cities in industrialized countries probably will be protected
               from sea level rise, but at great expense.        In developing countries,
               however, sea level rise will be most severely felt by exposed coastal
               populations and by agricultural developments in deltaic areas. Three highly
               populated developing countries -- India, Bangladesh, and Egypt -- are
               thought to be especially vulnerable because their low-lying coastal plains
               are already extremely susceptible to the effects of storms. Since 1960,
               India and Bangladesh have been struck by at least eight tropical cyclones,
               each of which killed more than 10,000 people. In late 1971), storm surges
               killed approximately 300,000 people in Bangladesh and reached over 150
               kilometers inland over the lowlands.      Recent estimates suggest that a
               climatically induced one-meter rise in sea level would cover scarce arable
               land in Egypt and Bangladesh presently occupied by 8 and 10 million people,
               respectively. A far greater fraction of the population of these countries
               would be threatened by the increased consequences of storms.

                    Small island nations are also especially vulnerable to sea level rise
               and to the other coastal effects of climate change. This vulnerability is
               reflected in their very high ratios of coastline length to land area. The
               most seriously affected island microstates are those consisting solely, or
               mostly, of atolls with little or no land at all a few meters above sea

                                                    88











74



                                                                                    Butler

             level. The majority of developing island microstates are also experiencing
             rapid rates of population growth.      Moreover, they are most frequently
             characterized by having large proportions of their populations in low-lying
             coastal areas. The location of most small island countries in the latitudes
             where tropical cyclones may be experienced further adds to their
             vulnerability. The effects of such disasters, while of smaller magnitude
             than those described above for some of the world's great deltas, are
             proportionally often much more devastating.

             A Need for Action

                  These circumstances require political, scientific, legal, and economic
             actions at the international and national level. It is imperative that such
             actions focus on human safety and on sustainable approaches to the
             management of coastal resources.

                  One of the first steps is to heighten awareness among governments and
             citizens alike of the possibility of sea level rise and its potential
             impacts in the coastal zone.. It is important to begin now the process of
             identifying, analyzing, evaluating, and planning for adaptive responses to
             build a foundation for timely implementation of response strategies, should
             the need arise.

                  Even though sea level rise is predicted to be a relatively gradual
             phenomenon with site-specific consequences, strategies appropriate to unique
             physical, social, economic, environmental, and cultural considerations may
             require long lead times.

                  Nature has provided us some time -- it must be used wisely by all
             nations, collectively and individually.


             A FORECAST FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

             Global Warming

                  There is growing consensus among scientists that the atmospheric
             buildup of greenhouse gases may lead to global climate changes and to an
             associated acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.

                  The IPCC Working Group 11 has projected a series of global consequences
             for a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere by the
             year 2050.     It constructed its scenario based on the global warming
             projections of Working Group I, including an increase in air temperature of
             3.50C and a sea surface temperature increase of up to 2% by the year 2050.

                  During this period, seawater may become slightly more acidic, in turn
             releasing more heavy metals in a biologically available, toxic form. The
             intensity and areal extent of coastal upwelling may decrease, thereby
             lowering the level of primary food production in marine ecosystems. The

                                                  89











                  Problem Identification

                  amount, rate, and regional variability of these consequences aria uncertain.
                  In general, the global warming scenario assumed by Working Group II would
                  lead to a reduction in fishery productivity and a partial loss of spawning
                  areas in the coastal zone, with a net redistribution of fishery regions.

                       An accelerated rise in sea level would have direct effects in the
                  coastal zone. While the rise in sea level would most likely be incremental,
                  the damages from flooding and erosion related to this rise would occur
                  during extreme events such as tsunamis or. storm surges associated with
                  hurricanes and typhoons.

                       Climate changes associated with global warming probably will also
                  affect freshwater availability and quality, food productivity, and access
                  to other resources, goods, and services.      The societal impacts of these
                  climate changes could be widely distributed, but they are likely to be felt
                  more severely by poorer nations, posing important and still unresolved
                  questions about equity, fairness, and international environmental ethics.

                  An Accelerated Rise in Sea Level

                       Current information from the IPCC Working Group H indicates that,
                  while secular sea level trends extracted from tide gauge! records over the
                  last century indicate an average global sea level rise of 1 to 2 mm/year,
                  new models of climatic warming and thermal expansion of the ocean, and
                  considerations of melting of small glaciers and large ice sheets, suggest
                  an average rate of global sea I evel rise of 4 to 6 mmlyear by the year 2050.
                  This projected rise of 25 to 40 cm by the year 2050 is 2 to 6 times faster
                  than that     experienced during the last 100 years, and would result
                  principally from the thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of small
                  mountain glaciers. The Working Group I concluded from its modeling studies
                  that the contribution to sea level rise from melting of the Greenland ice
                  sheet may be offset by an addition of ice to Antarctica and a consequent
                  lowering of global sea level. Working Group I believes that there is enough
                  inertia in the human-induced global warming that some rise in sea level is
                  probably inevitable in the future.

                       In addition to sea level rise, a number of researchers have suggested
                  that extreme events may occur more regularly as a result of climate change.
                  For example,   increased ocean temperatures may result in more frequent
                  occurrence of tropical cyclones. Of particular concern is the effect of
                  storm surges,  associated with tropical cyclones, which in conjunction with
                  increased sea levels may play havoc on low-lying coasts.       Inundation of
                  coastal areas  is already common during tropical cyclones and any increases
                  in the extent or frequency of inundation may render numerous heavily
                  populated areas marginal or uninhabitable.

                  Uncertainties

                       The complexity of climate modeling means that the necessary research
                  may be slow and difficult, and global monitoring of sea level may not detect

                                                       90










                                                                                    Butler

             significant changes for another decade.         Consequently, considerable
             uncertainties remain about the nature, timing, magnitude, and regional
             details of climate changes.


             POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ASSOCIATED
             SEA LEVEL RISE

             Inundation, Erosion, and Flooding

                  A rise in sea level would (1) inundate wetlands and lowlands, (2)
             erode shorelines, (3) exacerbate coastal flooding, (4) increase the salinity
             of estuaries and aquifers and otherwise impair water quality, (5) alter
             tidal ranges in rivers and bays, and (6) change the locations where rivers
             deposit sediment.

                  For example, a one-meter rise in sea level could inundate 15% of
             Bangladesh, and a two-meter rise could inundate Dhaka (the capital of
             Bangladesh) and over one-half of the populated islands of the Republic of
             Maldives, an atoll in the Indian Ocean.      In the Pacific, the atolls of
             Tokelau, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and those of the Marshalls could be devastated.
             Shanghai and Lagos -- the largest cities of China and Nigeria, respectively
             - - are 1 ess than two meters above sea 1 evel , as i s 20% of the popul at i on and
             farmland of Egypt.

                  Sea level rise will increase the risk of storm-related flooding. The
             higher base for storm surges would be particularly important in areas where
             hurricanes and typhoons are frequent, such as islands in the Caribbean Sea,
             the southeastern United States, the tropical Pacific, and the Indian
             subcontinent; had flood defenses not already been erected, London and the
             Netherlands would also be at risk from winter storms.

             Population and Infrastructure

                  In some circumstances, there may be a need to relocate people or even
             entire communities.    The issue of resettlement, while exerting major
             financial demands (particularly in developing countries), has an even
             greater effect on the social and cultural norms of the community being
             relocated. The loss of the traditional environment, which normally sustains
             an economic and cultural base and provides for recreation for the community,
             could severely disrupt family life and create social instability with a
             resulting negative psychological impact on the entire population, especially
             on the young and the elderly.

                  Community disruption and other negative social impacts associated with
             sea level rise and its consequences can also have severe, although
             different, effects on an industrialized country.      The scale of loss of
             infrastructure, commercial, and community support systems can prove
             astronomically expensive as a result of the high value of the installations
             and equipment.

                                                  91










                Problem Identification

                     Backwater effects can cause the lower river water levels to rise with
                rising sea level, affecting certain river-related infrastructural facilities
                such as bridges, port structures, quays, embankments, and river-training
                works.

                     Higher water levels in the lower reaches of rivers and adjacent coastal
                waters may affect the drainage capacity of adjacent lands and result in
                damage to production activities and facilities such as roads and buildings.

                Ecosystems and Living Resources

                     Estuaries, lagoons, deltas, and wetlands are all components of the
                coastal zone ecosystem, usually characterized by intensive -tidal influence,
                high turbidity and productivity, and a high degree of human activity
                (fisheries, navigation, recreation, waste disposal). From a conservation,
                economic, and ecological point of view, they are the most; valuable areas
                found in the nearshore shallow waters.

                     The main potential effect of sea level rise in shallow coastal waters
                is an increase in water depth. Intertidal zones may be modified radically
                and mangroves could disappear.     The physical and morphological boundary
                conditions of shallow waters may change considerably, affecting the
                functioning of ecological systems.     In turn, this may cause the loss of
                natural resource values, such as bird life, fish spawning and nursery
                grounds, and fish and shellfish production.

                     In general, the effects on shallow coastal ecosystems are strongly
                determined by local circumstances, and a good understanding of the physical
                and biological processes is required to forecast local impacts. But if the
                accretion of sea floor sediments cannot keep pace with rising waters and
                inland expansion of intertidal area is not possibIle (because of
                infrastructure or a steeply rising coast), major impacts are to be expected.

                     Coastal wetlands provide critical habitats for high percentages of
                commercially important fisheries in many countries. They also filter and
                process agricultural and industrial wastes, buffer coastal areas against
                storm and wave damage, and help generate large revenues from a variety of
                commercial and recreational activities. The United States estimates that
                coastal wetlands contribute to an annual marine fisheries harvest valued at
                over $10 billion. Equally important may be the wetlands contributions to
                subsistence fisheries that are critical for many coastal nations.

                     Raised sea levels may influence some coastal marine fishes by altering
                the shallow estuaries in which the juveniles find early shelter and food.
                If existing shorelines are maintained by embankments,, these shallow
                estuaries with their productive mudflats may become too deep. A change in
                estuarine salinity also is likely to have an effect on juvenile fish and
                their food, as will changes in inflow and -Nutflow currents.



                                                      92










                                                                                    Butler

                  Despite numerous protective laws, the degradation of estuaries and the
             disappearance of coastal wetlands continues because of shoreline erosion,
             landfill developments, flow diversions, turbidity, and sea level rise. An
             accelerated rise in sea level would only exacerbate these losses.

                  The estuarine response to climate change is likely to be a slow but
             continually adjusting environment. With a change in estuarine vegetation,
             there will be an adjustment in the animal species living in and around the
             estuary margins. An increase in mudflat vegetation such as the mangrove,
             will trap fine sediments within a harbor and gradually convert sand banks
             to mudflats. The wetter climate conditions projected by many models would
             lead to increased flow and sediment yields and consequently to increased
             turbidity of the estuary waters. These changes, together with a rise in
             sea level of up to one meter over the next 100 years, would modify the shape
             and position of many banks and channels within the estuary and permanently
             submerge others. Provided there are no barriers, wetlands and salt marshes
             around the landward margins of the estuary may increase with rising sea
             level. Where barriers occur, wetlands may be submerged by the rising water
             levels and permanently covered by shallow waters. Pastoral land around the
             estuaries may become saline and, hence, unproductive.

                  The adjustments to global sea level rise, outlined above for the
             estuarine environment,    indicate the possibility of some far-reaching
             impacts. There will be changes in fisheries and nursery functions of the
             estuaries together with changes in plant and bird life as the sediment and
             streamflow regimes adjust to the changing level of the sea.
























                                                  93











                           EXISTING PROBLEMS IN COASTAL ZONES:
                                        A CONCERN OF IPCC?



                                           DR. ROBBERT MISDORP
                              Ministry of Transport and Public Works
                                         Tidal Waters Division
                                               Koningsaade 4
                                      The Hague, The Netherlands





             INTRODUCTION

                   The effects of an acceleration of sea level rise     on coastal lowlands can
             be summarized as an inundation of parts of the wetlands and the coastal plains,
             an increase in flooding frequency, an increase in the      rate of coastal retreat
             and coastal erosion, and an increase in saltwater intrusion (UNEP/Delfts
             Hydraulics, 1988; Titus, 1989). These types of impacts,    however, also may result
             from other processes, including subsidence and upstream    river management (Figure
             1). These problems, which are related to present detrimental coastal processes
             other than sea level rise, are defined as the "existing problems" in the coastal
             zone.

                   The causes of the existing problems are often human induced:

                   ï¿½ Population pressure in the coastal zone leads to occupation, an increase
                     in human activities, and exploitation of coastal areas.

                   ï¿½ The exploitation of natural resources (oil/gas/water) often results in
                     subsidence.

                   ï¿½ Upstream river construction, such as the building of dams, retains the
                     sediment supply that otherwise would nourish the coastal zone.

                   All of these processes increase coastal erosion, and lead to inundation of
             the floodplains and saltwater intrusion, as will the expected acceleration of
             sea level rise (Figure 2).

                   One of the tasks of the IPCC-Response Strategies Working Group-Coastal Zone
             Management subcommittee is to unravel existing and future problems in the coastal
             zone and their respective causes.



                                                      95









                  sea level rise


                                                                                                                             seaward expansion
                                                                                                                                population

                                                                          dune



                                             ocean                                                   lagoon

                                                ----------------------------
                                                                                       . . . . ... ... ... ..
                                                                                         .. .. ..... .
                                                                                                                 K
                                                                                           ............ . ....
                                                                                           ...........
                                                                                             ................
                                                                                              ...........
                                                                                               ...........
                                                                                                      . . ........... .. .

















                      Figure 1. The main factors affecting coastal zones.


                     SOME EXAMPLES OF EXISTIMG COASTAL PROBLEMS

                               Subsidence in coastal zones that is mainly related to human activities is
                      illustrated by the following examples:

                               ï¿½   The Chao Phraya delta basin in Bangkok (5.5 million inhabitants) shows
                                   an increase of maximum subsidence (Nutulaya, 1988) from 1.2 m/century
                                   (1933-1978) to 7 m/century (1978-1987) (Figures 3 and 4).

                               ï¿½   An example of a low rate of subsidence is found in the Netherlands.
                                   The subsidence in the western part of the Netherlands is tectonic in
                                   origin and amounts to maximum values of only slightly more than 0.06
                                   m/century (Figure 5). This subsidence rate of the Pleistocene subsoil
                                   was observed during the period 1926-1985 (Noonen, 1.989).                                           In coastal
                                   areas with maximum subsidence rates, retreat of the coastline (mean low
                                   water line) amounted to 150-220 m/century (Kohsiek, 1988) during 1885-
                                   1985.

                               ï¿½   Coral     mining on the foreshore of Male (50,000 inhabitants/1.6 kM2),                                          the
                  ppopmom











                                   principal island of the fast-growing Maldives (maximum height 2-3 m above
                                   sea level) is deepening the foreshore, with a subsequent increase in wave
                                   action and coastal erosion (UNEP/Delfts Hydraulics, 1989) (Figure 6).

                                                                                      96







                                                                                                                  Misdorp







                                                                 .............. . .....






                                                                   N.M.











                                                                                               PRECIPITATION
                                                                                               EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
                                                                            SEA LEVEL RISE     TEMPERATURE




                                       SALTWATER               COASTAL EROSION                 STORM DIRECTION A
                                        INTRUSION              AND INUNDATION                      FREOUENCY
                                                                      F--

                                                               LOSS OF LIFE, LAND,
                                                           CAPITAL, ECO-SUSTAINABILITY
                                                                   -I-
                                     COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS



               Figure 2.       Schematic representation of the main factors affecting the coastal
               zone.



                      The construction of dams in rivers is accompanied by withdrawal of sediments
               on their way to the coast:

                          The sediments of the annual highly turbid Nile flood are completely
                          trapped in the artificial Lake Nasser (500 x 10 km) since the
                          construction of Aswan High Dam (1964). Water and sediment discharges
                          of the Nile's branches into the Mediterranean Sea ceased to exist after
                          1964. The subsequent observed acceleration of coastal retreat of the
                          protruding subdeltas of the Nile Delta reached maximum values of 150
                          m/year (Rosetta peninsula, Figure 7; Misdorp and Pluym, 1986). Since
                          1964, the overall yearly coastal erosion along the 250-km-long Nile Delta
                          coastal zone has been on the same order as the Nile sediment discharge
                          before 1964 (about 100 million m').

                                                                    97
















                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Cx



                                    40                                    70                    90                                                                                      70                     90


                                                                                                                    70                             chao phraya                                                                     70
                                                                                                                                                    river
                                                                          chao phraya
                                                                          river





                                                                                                                                                                                                   3.0

                                                                              0,8                                   30                                                                      5.0                                    30
                                                                       Banowk                                                                    1.0
                                                                               1,2
                      00                                                                                                                                                                   7.






                                      legend                                                                                                        legend
                                      contour of subsidence                                                         00                              contour of subsid                                                              00
                                      M/Century                                                                                                     m/century
                                                                                                                                               0     5 1 Okm
                               0      5 1 Okm

                                                                   @.w
                                                                            ,U:
                                                                   Tt.151.
                                                                                                                                                                 me                 I-T;
                                                         f 0-             k
                                 u    si end                         *A                                                                           h    -d-b"am,
                                     b
                                                                                                                                                     7
                                                                          ep
                                                                                                                                                                                             Ur
                                                                                                                                                                                                Y.
                                                                          ep"'.


                                Figure       3.      Subsidence of              the Bangkok basin                                       Figure        4.      Subsidence of              the Bangkok basin
                                                     (1933      to    1978).                                                                                  (1978 to         1987).







                                                                                                                   Misdorp

                                                                   X 10
                            Average coastal retreat/               V-1
                            advance 1885-1985 in m/y


                                    a&ar=  rena
                           N
                                                                   I

                                      I's 0 1.5
                                                          X





                                            North Sea



                                                                                                   West Germany
                                              X 10                 W,
                                                                     (-777@
                                             -OL                                        Subsidence and uplift
                                                                                          (1926-1980) in cm/century
                                                                                            6        uplift

                                                               Belgium                     0
                                                                                            6        subsidence


               Figure 5. Coastal retreat/advance and subsidence in the Netherlands.


                                                             Maldives                         india
                                                      Population pressure



                                                          Seaward expansion

                        +2m-                      waves                                waves

                   -3m



                                             Of
                   20m





               Figure 6. Coastal zone activities in the Maldives.

                                                                     99
                                                  wavesJI/I
                                                 -7
                               PF








            Adaptive Options


                   rn/y   200      Retreat of Rosetta Promontory
                                             Nile Delta, Egypt
                                                                              observed
                          150                                                 predicted
                                                                   (math. model excl.
                          100                                      coastal protection)

              Retreat      50                              %%


                            0


                                                                        No- Year AD

              Advance
                                    1900       1964  2000              2100
                                                 1
                                         Aswan High Dam construction


            Figure 7. Maximum annual retreat rate (m/year observed during 1900-1985
            and calculated by mathematical model 1985-2110) (excluding coastal protection
            measures).



            EXISTING COASTAL MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS AND IPCC

                  Two policies are possible for handling the existing and 'Future problems in
            coastal zones: adaptation or limitation of the cause.

                  Limitation of the causes of existing problems in the coastal zone means:

                  ï¿½ intensifying measures to reduce population pressures;

                  ï¿½ changes in the manner of exploitation of coastal areas: water/oil/gas
                    extraction and upstream river management.

                  These types of limitation measur es should receive high priority.



                                                  100












                                     HOLDING BACK-THE SEA



                                           JODI L. JACOBSON
                                       World Watch Institute
                                           Washington, D.C.





                A quick study of a world map illustrates an obvious but rarely considered
           fact:  much of human society is defined by the planet's oceans.         The boundary
           between land and water determines a great deal that is often taken for granted,
           including the amount of land available for human settlement and agriculture, the
           economic and ecological productivity of deltas and estuaries, the shape of bays
           and harbors used for commerce, and the abundance or scarcity of freshwater in
           coastal communities.

                The rapid settlement of coastal areas'over the past century implies tacit
           expectation of a status quo between sea and shore that, according to most
           scientific models, is about to change.      On a geological time scale, sea level
           is far from static.     Cycles of cooling and warming that span 100,000 years,
           accompanied by glaciation and melting, keep the level of the oceans in constant
           flux. Still, for most of recorded history, sea level has changed slowly enough
           to allow the development of a social order based on its relative constancy.

                Global warming will radically alter this.        Increasing concentrations of
           greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to raise the earth's average
           temperature between 2.5 and 5.5 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years. In
           response, the rate of rise in sea level is likely to accelerate from thermal
           expansion of the earth's surface waters and from a more rapid melting of alpine
           and polar  glaciers and of ice caps. Although the issue of how quickly oceans
           will rise is still a matter of conjecture, the economic and environmental losses
           of coastal nations under various scenarios are fairly easy to predict. One thing
           is clear:   no coastal nation, whether rich or poor, will be totally immune
           (Hansen et al., 1988).

                Accelerated sea level rise, like global warming, represents an environmental
           threat of unprecedented proportion.       Yet most discussions of the impending
           increase in global rates obscure a critical issue -- in some regions of the
           world, relative sea level (the elevation as measured at a given point on the map)
           is already rising quickly. Bangladesh, Egypt, and the United States are just
           a few of the countries where extensive coastal land degradation, combined with


                                                    101










              Problem Identification

              even the recent small incremental changes in global sea level, is contributing
              to large-scale land loss.    These trends will be exacerbated in a greenhouse
              world.

                   A preliminary assessment of the likely effects of global and relative sea
              level rise done by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1989
              identified the 8 regions and 27 countries at greatest risk.   While pointing out
              that potential losses from rising seas are far greater in some areas than others,
              the report warned that a large majority of nations will be affected to some
              degree by higher global average rates, since only 30 countries in the world are
              completely landlocked (UNEP, 1989).

                   Low- to middle-range estimates by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
              (EPA) indicate a warming-induced rise by 2100 of anywhere from a half-meter to
              just over two meters. A one-meter rise by 2075, well within the projections,
              could result in widespread economic, environmental, and social disruption. G.P.
              Hekstra of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning, and Environment
              asserts that such a rise could affect all land up to five meters elevation.
              Taking into account the effects of storm surges and saltwater intrusion into
              rivers, he estimates that 5 million square kilometers are at risk. Although only
              a small percentage of the world total -- about 3 percent -- this area encompasses
              one-third of global cropland and is home to a billion people (Hoffman et al.,
              1986, 1983; Hekstra, 1989).

                   As sea level rises, coastal communities face two fundamental choices:
              retreat from the shore or fend off the sea. Decisions about which strategy to
              adopt must be made relatively soon because of the long lead time involved in
              building dikes and other structures and because of the continuing development
              of coasts.   Yet allocating scarce resources on the basis of unknown future
              conditions -- how fast the sea will rise and by what date -- entails a fair
              amount of risk.

                   Questions also arise about how far nations should go in safeguarding and
              insuring investments already made in coastal areas.   Protecting beaches, homes,
              and resorts can cost a country with a long coastline billions of dollars -- money
              that is well spent only if current assumptions about future s-ea level are borne
              out. Assessing the real environmental costs is difficult because traditional
              economic models do not reflect the fact that structural barriers built to hold
              back the sea often hasten the decline of ecosystems important to fish and birds.
              Moreover, protecting private property on one part of the coast often contributes
              to higher rates of erosion elsewhere, making one person's seawall another's woe.

                   International equity is another important issue.       Low-lying developing
              countries stand to lose the most from accelerated sea level rise yet can least
              afford to build levees and dikes on a grand scale.           These regions face
              consequences grossly disproportionate to their relatively small contribution to
              the greenhouse effect. At the same time, however, development projects now in
              progress are putting enormous pressure on regional ecosystems, while aggravating
              the current and likely consequences of sea level rise.


                                                     102












                                                                                     Jacobson

           GLOBAL CHANGES, LOCAL OUTCONES

                 Worldwide average sea level depends primarily on two variables.    One, the
           shape and size of ocean basins, involves geological changes over many     millions
           of years.    The other, the amount of water in the oceans, is influenced by
           climate, which can have a more rapid impact (Milliman, 1989; Titus, 1987a, 1989;
           The Oceanography Report, 1985).

                 Ocean basins change their shape and size in a process similar to the buildup
           of land recorded in stratified rock. The sea floor builds out from ocean ridges
           via the accumulation of lava, which forms multiple layers.     The weight of new
           layers causes the earth's crust to settle and subside. If subsidence occurs more
           rapidly than new volcanic rock is formed, the basin deepens and the water level
           falls (assuming a constant volume of water).      If the production of new rock
           exceeds subsidence, on the other hand, the basin's volume decreases and the water
           level rises (Milliman, 1989).

                 Seawater volume may change much more quickly than basin size and -shape.
           A higher global average temperature can alter sea level in four ways.          The
           density can decrease through the warming and subsequent expansion of seawater,
           which increases volume. The volume can also be raised by the melting of alpine
           glaciers, by a net increase in water as the fringes of polar glaciers melt, or
           by more ice being discharged from ice caps into the oceans.

                 Glaciers and ice shelves, such as those in Antarctica and Greenland, freeze
           or melt in a cycle on the order of every 100,000 years. In the last interglacial
           period, average temperatures were I degree Celsius warmer, and sea level was 6
           meters (20 feet) higher.   During the Wisconsin glaciation 18,000 years ago, the
           most recent ice age, enough ocean water was collected in glaciers to drop the
           sea off the northeastern U.S. coast 100 meters below its level today (Milliman
           et al., 1989; Pirazzoli, 1985).

                 Globally and locally, sea level also fluctuates day to day and year to year
           as a result of short-term meteorological and physical variables that may also
           be affected by global warming.    Tidal flows, barometric pressure, the actions
           of wind and waves, storm patterns, and even the earth's rotational alignment all
           influence sea level (Titus, 1987a; Barnett, 1983).

                 The slight variations in global climate of the last 5,000 years are
           responsible for correspondingly small fluctuations in sea level. Over the past
           100 years, however, global sea level rose 10-15 centimeters (4-6 inches), a
           somewhat faster pace than the rate during the previous several thousand years.
           Scientists continue to debate the cause of this rise; many argue that no evidence
           yet indicates it is due to      human-induced warming, while others are not so
           sanguine (Milliman, 1989).

                 Faster global average sea level rise is not the only threat to coastal
           areas, nor are changes in the earth's atmosphere the only consequences of human
           activity likely to accelerate this trend. Discussions that focus only on global
           averages mask important differences in relative, or local, sea level. Although

                                                   103











               Problem Identification

               the two are fundamentally different, global average sea level rise can be
               compounded by local fluctuations in land elevation and geological processes, such
               as tectonic uplift or subsidence in coastal areas. Local ratE!S of sea level rise
               in turn depend in large part on the sum of the global pattern and local
               subsidence.

                    Land subsidence is a key issue in the case of river deltas, such as the
               Nile and Ganges, where human activities are interfering with the normal
               geophysical processes that could balance the effects of rising water levels.
               These low-lying regions, important from both ecological and social standpoints,
               will be among the first lost to inundation under even slight rises in sea level.

                    Under natural conditions, deltas are in dynamic equilibrium, forming and
               breaking down in a continuous pattern of accretion and subsidence. Subsidence
               in deltas occurs naturally on local and regional scales through the compaction
               of recently deposited riverborne sediments. As long as enough sediment reaches
               .a delta to offset subsidence, the area either grows or maintains its size. The
               Mississippi River delta, for example, was built up over time by sediments
               deposited during floods and laid down by the river along its natural course to
               the sea.   If sediments are stopped along the way, continuing compaction and
               erosion cause loss of land relative to the sea, even if the absolute level of
               the sea remains unchanged.

                    Large-scale human interference in natural processes has had dramatic effects
               both on relative rates of sea level rise and on coastal ecosystems in several
               major deltas. Channeling, diverting, or damming rivers can greatly reduce the
               amount of sediment that reaches a delta, as has happened in the Ganges, the
               Mississippi, and most other major river systems, resulting in heavier shoreline
               erosion and an increase in water levels. Furthermore, the mining of subterranean
               stores of groundwater and of oil and gas deposits can raise subsidence rates.
               In Bangkok, local subsidence has reached 13 centimeters per year, as the water
               table has dropped because of excessive withdrawals of groundwater over the past
               three decades (Salinas et al., 1986; Milliman, 1988).

                    These factors can dramatically affect the local outcome! of global changes.
               Subsidence can result in a local sea level rise in some delta regions that is
               up to five times that of a global mean increase. Under a 20-centimeter worldwide
               average increase, for example, local sea level rise may range from 33 centimeters
               along the Atlantic and gulf coasts of the United States to one meter in rapidly
               subsiding areas of Louisiana and in parts of California and Texas. As the rate
               of global rise accelerates, the rise in local sea level on rapidly subsiding
               coasts will multiply severalfold (Sestini et al., 1989; Titus, 1989).

                    Uncertainties abound on the pace of all the possible changes expected from
               global warming. The most immediate effect will probably be an increase in volume
               through thermal expansion. The rate of thermal expansion depends on how quickly
               ocean volume responds to rising atmospheric temperatures, how fast surface layers
               warm, and how rapidly the warming reaches deeper water masses.       The pace of
               glacial melt and the exact responses of large masses such as the antarctic shelf
               are equally unclear. Over the long term, however, glaciers and ice caps will

                                                      104











                                                                                  Jacobson

        make the largest contribution to increased volume if a full-scale global warming
        occurs. (Mel t i ng of the Arct i c Ocean i ce pack woul d have no ef fect on sea 1 evel ,
        since the ice is floating, displacing an amount of water roughly equal to that
        in the submerged ice) (Titus, 1989).

             Over the past five years, a number of scientists have estimated the possible
        range of greenhouse- induced sea level rise by 2100. Gordon de Q. Robin projects
        an increase of anywhere from 20 to 165 centimeters.        Computations by other
        scientists yield projections as high as 2-4 meters over the next 110 years.
        Widely cited EPA estimates of global average sea level rise by 2100 range from
        50 to 200 centimeters (1.6 to 6.5 feet), depending on various assumptions about
        the rate of climate change. The discussion in this chapter uses the EPA figures
        unless otherwise noted. Most models do agree that initial rates of increase will
        be small relative to the much more rapid acceleration expected after 2050.
        After 2100, the rate is anybody's guess.     In any case, even the low range of
        estimates portends a marked increase over the current global pace (Robin, 1986;
        Titus, 1989).

             If global warming runs its course unabated, resulting in average
        temperatures toward the higher end of the range, the earth may eventually be
        awash in seawater. In theory, the world's total remaining ice cover contains
        enough water to raise sea level over 70 meters. Some early reports, taking this
        fact to its extreme, predicted changes of similar magnitude within a brief period
        of time. But such an increase is more science fiction than fact, since complete
        melting of all ice packs would take several thousand years (Henderson -Sell ers
        and McGuffie, 1986).

             What is important about the sea level rise expected from global warming is
        the pace of change. The rate expected in the foreseeable future -- one meter
        by 2075 is certainly plausible -- is unprecedented on a human time scale. Higher
        rates of global increase mean more rapid relative rise where subsidence is
        excessive. Unfortunately, with today's level of population and investment in
        coastal areas, the world has much more to lose from sea level rise than ever
        before.



        LANDS AND PEOPLES AT RISK

             From the atmosphere to the ocean, humans are proving themselves to be
        forceful -- if unintentional -- agents of change.     By and large, the costs of
        higher seas tomorrow will be determined by patterns of development prevalent in
        river systems and coastal areas today. Intense population pressures and economic
        demands are already taking their toll on deltas, shores, and barrier islands.
        Rapid rates of subsidence and coastal erosion ensure that many areas of the world
        will experience a one-meter increase in sea level well before a global average
        change of the same magnitude. As a result, countless billions of dollars worth
        of property in coastal towns, cities, and ports will be threatened, and problems
        with natural and artificial drainage, saltwater intrusion into rivers and
        aquifers, and severe erosion of beaches will become commonplace.


                                               105










            Prob7em Identification

                  The ebb and flow of higher tides will cause dramatic declines in a wide
            variety of coastal ecosystems. Wetlands and coastal forests, which account for
            most of the world's land area less than a meter above the mean, are universally
            at risk. Loss of coastal wetlands in Louisiana today provides a good case study
            for the future.

                  Deterioration of the Mississippi River delta began early in the nineteenth
            century, shortly after levees (embankments to prevent flooding) became
            extensively used.    Subsidence and land loss accelerated after 1940 with an
            increase in river diversions and the tapping of fossil fuel and groundwater
            deposits.    Combined with sea level rise, these processes are now drowning
            Louisiana's  coastal marshes at rates as high as 130 square kilometers per year,
            giving that  state the dubious distinction of losing more land to the sea on an
            annual basis than any other region in the world (Salinas et al., 1986).

                  Coastal swamps and marshes are areas of prodigious biological productivity.
            Louisiana's marshes, for example, cover 3.2 million hectares and constitute 41
            percent of all wetlands in the United States.     The region supplies 25 percent
            of the U.S. seafood catch and supports a U.S. $500-million-a-year recreational
            industry devoted to fishing, hunting, and birding.       The ecological benefits
            derived from these same wetlands are inestimable.       Nearly two-thirds of the
            migratory birds using the Mississippi flyway make essential use of this
            ecosystem, while existing marshlands and barrier islands buffer inland areas
            against devastating hurricane surges. Marshes not only hold back the intrusion
            of the Gulf of Mexico's saltwater into local rivers and aquifers, but they are
            also a major source of freshwater for coastal communities, agriculture, and
            industry (Hawxhurst, 1987).

                  What was 1 ai d down over mi 11 i ons of years by the sl ow depos i t of s i 1 t washed
            off the land from the Rockies to the Appalachians may disappear in little over
            a century. The combination of global sea level rise subsidence could overrun
            Louisiana's famous bayous and marshland by 2040, by allowing the Gulf of Mexico
            to surge some 53 kilometers (33 miles) inland. With the delicate coastal marsh
            ecology upset, fish and wildlife harvests would decline precipitously, and a
            ripple effect would flatten the coastal economy. Communities, water supplies,
            and infrastructure would all be threatened.     Most of these trends are already
            apparent in Louisiana and are becoming evident in other parts of the United
            States (Salinas et al., 1986; Hawxhurst, 1987).

                  According to EPA estimates, erosion, inundation, and saltwater intrusion
            could reduce the area of U.S. coastal wetlands up to 80 percent if current
            projections of future global average sea level are realized.        Not only the
            Mississippi Delta, but the Chesapeake Bay and other vital wetland regions would
            be irreparably damaged. Dredged, drained, and filled, coastal wetlands in the
            United States are already under siege from land and sea.      Were it not for the
            enormous pressure that human encroachment puts on them, these swamps and marshes
            might have a chance to handle rising seas by reestablishing upland. But heavy
            development of beach resorts and other coastal areas throughout the country means
            that few wetlands have leeway to "migrate" (Titus, 1987b).


                                                    106











                                                                                  Jacobson

             The extent of wetland loss will depend on the degree to which coastal towns
        and villages seek to protect beachfront property under different scenarios of
        sea level rise. An analysis by the U.S. EPA showed that some 46 percent of all
        U.S. wetlands would be lost under a one-meter rise (from global sea level rise
        and local subsidence) if shorelines were allowed to retreat naturally. Building
        bulkheads and levees that block the path of wetland migration would entail higher
        losses. Fully 66 percent of the U.S. wetlands would be lost if all shorelines
        were protected. If only currently developed mainland areas and barrier islands
        were protected, the loss could be kept to 49 percent. Loss of up to 80 percent
        of the country's wetlands is envisioned under a more rapid rate of rise (Titus,
        1987b).

             In any case, there will be severe reductions in food and habitat for birds
        and juvenile fish. No one has yet calculated the immense economic and ecological
        costs of such a loss for the United States, much less extrapolated them to the
        global level. Yet as global average sea level rises, these problems will surely
        become more severe and widespread in ecosystems around the world.

             A one-meter rise in sea level would wipe out much of England's sandy
        beaches, salty marshes, and mud flats, according to a 1989 study by the Natural
        Environment Research Council in London, for example. The most vulnerable areas
        lie in the eastern part of the country, including the low-lying fens and marshes
        of Essex and north Kent.    More than half of Europe's wading birds winter in
        British estuaries, and they are destined to lose this vital habitat (Boorman et
        al., 1989).

             Highly productive mangrove forests throughout the world will also be lost
        to the rising tide.    Mangroves are the predominant type of vegetation on the
        deltas along the Atlantic coast of South America. On the north coast of Brazil,
        active shoreline retreat is less of a problem because little human settlement
        exists; the mangroves may be able to adapt.        In the south, however, once-
        extensive mangroves have already been depleted or hemmed in by urban growth,
        especially near Rio de Janeiro. No more than 100 square kilometers of mangroves
        remain where thousands once stood. As sea level rises, these remaining areas
        will disappear too (Bird, 1986).

             Eric Bird of the University of Melbourne in Australia notes that mangrove-
        fringed coastlines have become much less extensive in Australia, Africa, and Asia
        in recent decades as a result of fishpond construction and land reclamation for
        mining, settlement, and waste disposal. Where they remain, mangroves stand on
        the frontlines between salt marshes and freshwater vegetation. Bird argues that
        submergence will kill off large areas of the seaward mangroves, especially where
        human developments abutting mangrove forests prevent their landward retreat.
        In Asia, for example, the land behind mangroves is often intensively used for
        fishponds or rice fields. Thus, as sea level rises, it will threaten not only
        the mangrove species that cannot reestablish upland, but also the economic value
        of products derived from rice fields and brackish-water fishponds within the
        flood zone (Bird, 1986).



                                               107











              Problem Identification

                    In the Bight of Bangkok, the mangrove fringe has alroady largely been
              cleared and converted into fish and shrimp ponds and salt pans. Landward canals
              have been built to irrigate rice fields.          A one-meter sea level rise would
              threaten to submerge all existing mangroves and an additional zone up to 300
              meters landward, wiping out the fish farms.        This is likely to happen on the
              southwestern coast of Bangladesh as well,         where 6,000 square kilometers of
              mangroves, locally known as "sunderbans,"        are at risk.      A maze of heavily
              forested waterways that is both economically and ecologically valuable, this area
              shields the heavily settled region behind it     from the sea (Broadus et al., 1986).

                    Worldwide, erosion of coastlines, beaches, and barrier islands has
              accel erated over the past 10 years as a resul t of ri s i ng sea. 1 evel .   A survey
              by a commission of the International Geophysical Union demonstrated that erosion
              had become prevalent on the world's sandy coastlines, at least 70 percent of
              which have retreated during the past few decades (Bird, 1987, 1990; Dean, 1989).

                    Changes on beaches vary with the amount of sand supplied to and lost from
              the shore as a result of wave activity. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers found
              that of the 134,984 kilometers of American coastline, 24 percent could be
              classified as "seriously" eroding.         Over the past 100 Years the Atlantic
              coastline has eroded an average of 60-90 centimeters (2-3 feet) a year; on the
              gulf coast, the figure is 120-150 centimeters.           Relatively, few of the most
              intensively developed resorts along the U.S. coast have beaches wider than about
              30 meters at high tide. Projections of sea level rise over the next 40-50 years
              suggest that most recreational beaches in developed areas could be eliminated
              unless preventive measures are taken (Titus, 1987a).

                    Increased erosion would decrease natural storm barriers. Coastal floods
              associated with storm surges surpass        even earthquakes in loss of life and
              property damage worldwide. Apart from greater erosion of the barrier islands
              that safeguard mainland coasts, higher seas will increase flooding and storm
              damage in coastal areas because raised water levels would provide storm surges
              with a higher base to build upon. And the higher seas would decrease natural
              and artificial drainage (Murty et al., 1988; Titus, 1987a).

                    A one-meter sea level rise could turn a moderate storm into a catastrophic
              one.   A storm of a severity that now occurs on average every 15 years, for
              example, could flood many areas that are today affected only by truly massive
              storms once a century. Oceanographer T.S. Murty states that as cultivation and
              habitation of newly formed low-lying delta land continues, "even greater storm
              surge disasters must be anticipated" (Murty et al., 1985).

                    Murty's study shows that losses are nowhere more serious than in the Bay
              of Bengal. About 60 percent of all deaths due to storm surges worldwide in this
              century have occurred in the low-lying agricultural areas of the countries
              bordering this bay and the adjoining Andaman Sea. Murty puts the cost of damage
              from storm surges in the Bay of Bengal region between 1945 and 1975 at U.S. $7
              billion, but warns that this number "scarcely expresses the impact of such
              disasters on developing countries" (Murty et al., 1988).


                                                        108











                                                                                      Jacobson

                Bangladesh -- where storm surges now reach as far as 160 kilometers inland
           -- accounts for 40 percent of this toll.     In 1970, this century's worst storm
           surge tore through the countryside, initially taking some 300,000 lives, drowning
           millions of livestock, and destroying most of Bangladesh's fishing fleet. The
           toll climbed higher in its aftermath. As the region's population mounts, so does
           the potential for another disaster (Murty et al., 1988).

                Studies indicate a dramatic increase in the area vulnerable to flooding in
           the United States as well.       A one-meter rise would boost the portion of
           Charleston, South Carolina, now lying within the 10-year floodplain from 20 to
           45 percent. A 1.5-meter rise would bring that figure to more than 60 percent,
           the current area of the 100-year floodplain. Effectively, once-a-century floods
           would then occur on the order of every 10 years.    In Galveston, Texas, the 100-
           year floodplain would move from 58 percent of the low-lying to 94 percent under
           a rise of just 88 centimeters (Hoffman et al., 1983).

                Sea level rise will also permanently affect freshwater supplies. Miami is
           a case in point.   The city's first settlements were built on what little high
           ground could be found, but today most of greater Miami lies at or just above sea
           level on swampland reclaimed from the Everglades.        Water for its 3 mill   ' ion
           residents is drawn from the Biscayne aquifer, which flows right below the city
           streets.   That the city exists and prospers is due to what engineers call a
           "hydrologic masterwork" of natural and artificial systems that hold back swamp
           and sea (Miller et al., 1988).

                Against a one-meter rise in ocean levels, Miami's only defense would be a
           costly system of seawalls and dikes. But that might not be enough to spare it
           from insidious assault.     Freshwater floats atop saltwater, so as sea levels
           rise, the water table would be pushed nearly a meter closer to the surface. The
           elaborate pumping and drainage system that currently maintains the integrity of
           the highly porous aquifer could be overwhelmed.      The higher water table would
           cause roads to buckle, bridge abutments to sink, and land to revert back to
           swamp. Miami's experience would not be unique. Large cities around the world
           -- Bangkok, New Orleans, New York, Taipei, and Venice, to name a few -- face
           similar prospects.

                A study by the Delaware River Basin Commission indicates that a rise of 13
           centimeters by the end of this decade would pull the "salt front" on that river
           from two to four kilometers further inland if there were a drought similar to
           one in the 1960s that contaminated Philadelphia's water supply.       A rise of I-
           2.5 meters would push saltwater up to 40 kilometers inland under drought
           conditions. The resulting contamination of freshwater would exceed New Jersey's
           health-based sodium standard 15 to 50 percent of the time (Titus, 1987a).

                Countries bordering the Mediterranean would suffer significant economic
           losses. Greece and Italy, for example, face threats to their tourism industries
           and to specialized agricultural industries, as well as to important harbors.
           A 1989 UNEP report points out that, though they make up only 17 percent of the
           total land area of the Mediterranean region, the alluvial and coastal plains of
           most countries bordering this sea "have [considerable] demographic and economic

                                                   109










             Problem Identification

             importance." The coast is home to 37 percent of the region's population, some
             133 million people.    The report cautions that, while serious environmental
             problems -- from water pollution and salinization to shoreline erosion and loss
             of habitat -- already exist in the region, owing to agricultural and industrial
             practices, tourism, and urbanization, "sea level rise will considerably affect
             the economy and well-being of many countries, especially because many low coasts
             will increasingly experience physical instability" resulting from subsidence and
             reduced sedimentation (Sestini et al., 1989).


             MOST VULNERABLE, LEAST RESPONSIBLE

                  Social, economic, and environmental costs of sea level rise will be highest
             in countries where deltas are extensive, densely populated, and extremely food-
             productive.  In these countries, most of which are in the Third World, heavy
             reliance on groundwater and the completed or proposed damming and diversion of
             1 arge ri vers - - for i ncreased hydropower and agri cul tural use, for f 1 ood control ,
             and for transportation -- have already begun to compound problems with sea level
             rise. Almost without exception, the prognosis for these vulnerable low-lying
             countries in a greenhouse world is grim.

                  The stakes are particularly high throughout Asia, where damming and
             diversion of river systems such as the Indus, Ganges -Brahmaputra, and Yellow
             Rivers has greatly decreased the amount of sediment getting to deltas.        The
             sediments feeding Asia's many great river deltas account for at least 70 percent
             of the total that reaches oceans, and they replenish agricultural land with the
             fertile silt responsible for a large share of food produced in those nations
             (Milliman, 1988).

                  As elsewhere, the deltas reliant on these sediments support sizable human
             and wildlife populations while creating protective barriers between inland areas
             and the sea. Large cities, including Bangkok, Calcutta, Dacca, Hanoi, Karachi,
             and Shanghai, have grown up on the low-lying river banks.         These heavily
             populated areas are almost certain to be flooded as sea level rise accelerates
             (Milliman et al., 1988; Devoy, 1987; Broadus et al., 1986).

                  The United Nations Environment Programme's 1989 global survey represents
             the first attempt to analyze systematically the regions most vulnerable to sea
             level rise. An overall lack of data posed severe constraints on the assessments
             of potential impacts.  In defining "vulnerability," for example, UNEP sought. to
             evaluate population densities for the total area worldwide lying between 1.5 and
             5 meters above mean sea level.       At the global level, however, detailed
             topographic maps are not available for such low elevations (UNEP, 1989).

                  On a country - by- country basis, four main criteria were used to determine
             vulnerability. The first two -- the share of total land area between zero and
             five meters above mean sea level and the density of coastal populations -- were
             used to assess the likely demographic impacts.    Identified as most vulnerable
             were areas where coastal population density exceeded 100 people per square
             kilometer.

                                                   110










                                                                                       Jacobson

             Potential economic and ecological losses were gauged by the other two
        criteria: the extent of agricultural and of biological productivity within low-
        lying areas.      First, UNEP isolated countries where lowland agricultural
        productivity grew on average more than 2 percent a year between 1980 and 1985.
        Second, it added the regions with the largest inventories of coastal wetlands
        and tidal mangrove forests.

             Under these guidelines, 10 countries -- Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, the
        Maldives, Mozambique, Pakistan, Senegal, Surinam, Thailand, and The Gambia --
        were identified as "most vulnerable."        These 10 share many characteristics,
        including the fact that they are, by and large, poor and populous (see Table 1).
        Not insignificantly, as a group they also contribute relatively little to the
        current buildup of greenhouse gases.

             UNEP identified both primary and secondary impact areas as important in
        each of these countries. The primary impact area consists of the coastal region
        between zero and 1.5 meters elevation, which would be completely lost under a
        1.5-meter rise.     The secondary area (1.5-3.0 meters above today's mean) is
        vulnerable not only to a rise in seas of equivalent measures but also to the many
        pressures -- such as an influx of environmental refugees, and increased regional
        demand for food, housing, and other resources -- that would arise from inundation
        of the land closer to the sea (UNEP, 1989).



                   Table 1. Ten Countries Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise


                                                         Per Capita
                     Countries                  Population           Income
                                                (millions)       (U.S. dollars)


                     Bangladesh                     114.7             160
                     Egypt                          54.8              710
                     Indonesia                      184.6             450
                     Maldives                        0.2              300
                     Mozambique                     15.2              150

                     Pakistan                       110.4             350
                     Senegal                         5.2              510
                     Surinam                         0.4             2,360
                     Thailand                       55.6              840
                     The Gambia                      0.8              220

        Sources:     United Nations Environment Programme,          Criteria for Assessing
        Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: A Global Inventory to High Risk Areas (Delft,
        The Netherlands:     Delft Hydraulics, 1989); income and population data from
        Population Reference Bureau, 1989 World Population Data Sheet, Washington, D.C.,
        1989.


                                                   ill










             Problem Identification

                  Detailed information on the land area, population, and economic output
             likely to be affected by a rise of up to three meters was unattainable for all
             but Bangladesh and Egypt. For data on these two countries, UNEP drew on a 1988
             study by John Milliman and his colleagues at the Woods Hole Oceanographic
             Institute in Massachusetts. Their study showed the combined effects of sea level
             rise and subsidence on the Bengal and Nile delta regions, where the homes and
             livelihoods of some 46 million people are potentially threatened (Milliman et
             al., 1988).

             Bangladesh

                  The river delta nations of the Indian subcontinent and southeast Asia depend
             heavily on ocean resources and coastal areas for transportation, mariculture,
             and habitable land. Bangladesh is no exception. The Bengal delta, the world's
             largest such coastal plain, accounts for 80 percent of Bangladesh's land mass
             and extends some 650 kilometers from the western boundary with India to the
             Chittagong hill tracts.    Milliman observes that because the delta is so close
             to the sea (most of the area is only a meter or two above that level now), an
             increase in sea level rise accompanied by higher rates of coastal storm erosion
             is likely to have a greater effect here than on any other delta in the world
             (Milliman, 1988; Broadus et al., 1986).

                  Residents of one of the poorest and most densely populated nations in the
             world, Bangladeshis already live at the margin of survival. Most people depend
             heavily on the agricultural and economic output derived from land close to the
             sea and currently subject to annual floods from both rivers and ocean storm
             surges. Subsidence is already a problem in this region. The Woods Hole study
             indicates that as global warming sets in, relative sea level rise in the Bengal
             delta may well exceed two meters by 2050.       Because half the country lies at
             elevations below five meters, losses to accelerated sea level rise will be high
             (Milliman et al., 1988; for a further discussion of environmental refugees see
             Jacobson, 1988).

                  UNEP estimates based on current population size and density show that 15
             percent of the nation's land area, inhabited by 15 million people, is threatened
             by total inundation from a primary rise of up to 1.5 meters. Secondary increases
             of up to three meters would wipe out over 28,500 square kilometers, displacing
             an additional 8 million people. These projections do not account for the ongoing
             increase in Bangladesh's population or for continuing settlement of the delta
             area.   Thus, they clearly understate the potential number of environmental
             refugees (UNEP, 1989).

                  By the end of the next century, Bangladesh as it is known today may
             virtually have ceased to exist. Pressures to develop agriculture have quickened
             the pace of damming and channeling on the three giant rivers -- the Brahmaputra,
             the Ganges, and the Meghna -- that feed the delta. As a result, sediment flow
             is being dramatically reduced and subsidence is increasing.

                 This situation is being aggravated by the increasing withdrawal of
             groundwater. Milliman of Woods Hole notes a sixfold increase in the number of

                                                     112










                                                                                        Jacobson

           wells drilled in the country between 1978 and 1985, raising subsidence to perhaps
           twice the natural rate. The researchers concluded that interference in the delta
           ecosystem today may make a far larger area and population susceptible to sea
           level rise, causing dislocation of more than 40 million people (Milliman et al,
           1988).

           Egypt

                 Egypt -- almost completely desert except for the thin ribbon of productive
           land along the Nile and its delta -- can ill afford the likely costs of sea level
           rise. The country's millions crowd on to the less than 4 percent of the land
           that is arable, leading to a population density in the settled area of Egypt of
           1,800 people per square kilometer (Milliman et al., 1988).

                 In the Nile delta, extending from just west of the port city of Alexandria
           to east of Port Said at the northern entrance of the Suez Canal, local sea level
           rise already far exceeds the global average because of high rates of subsidence.
           The construction of the first barrages or dams on the Nile in the 1880s cut
           massively the amount of sediments that nourished the delta. This situation was
           exacerbated by the building of the Aswan Dam in 1902 and its enlargement in 1934.
           Extensive diversion of water for irrigation-and land reclamation projects since
           then has closed down a number of the Nile's former tributaries, greatly reducing
           the river's outward flow (Broadus et al., 1986).

                 Even so, approximately 80-100 million tons of sediment were delivered
           annually to the Nile delta until 1964, when the closure of the Aswan Dam
           virtually eliminated the silt getting through. High rates of relative sea level
           rise and the accompanying acceleration in subsidence and erosion have resulted
           in a frightening rate of coastal retreat, reaching 200 meters annually in some
           places (Broadus et al., 1986).

                 Milliman's study suggests that local sea level rise will range from 1.0 to
           1.5 meters by 2050, rendering up to 19 percent of Egypt's already scarce
           habitable land unlivable.      By 2100, an expected rise of between 2.5 and 3.3
           meters may drown 26 percent of the habitable land -- home to 24 percent of the
           population and the source of an equal share of the country's economic output
           (Milliman et al., 1988).

                 To feed a population growing nearly 3 percent annually, the government has
           followed a strategy of.land reclamation     and development of lagoon fisheries on
           the delta banks. The principal existing     natural defenses against transgression
           by the sea are a series of dunes and the    freshwater (but increasingly brackish)
           lakes that fall behind them. According      to James Broadus of Woods Hole, these
           lakes -- Burullos, Idku, Manzalah, and      Maryut -- are the major source of the
           nation's approximately 100,000 tons of annual fish catch, 80 percent of which
           are freshwater fish. Ironically, the lakes and surrounding areas now slated for
           development in the regions of Port Said and Lake Maryut will most likely be
           inundated some time in the next century (Broadus et al., 1986).



                                                     113










            Problem Identification

                 Unless steps are taken now to slow sea level rise, Egyptians can also look
            forward to damage to ports and harbors, increasing stress on freshwater supplies
            due to saline encroachment, and the loss of beaches that support tourism, such
            as those in Alexandria.

                 Extending these scenarios of Bangladesh and Egypt to the eight other most
            endangered nations presents a sobering picture.       Despite the lack of data,
            preliminary findings show the situation to be equally grave.    In another study,
            Milliman notes that when the impact of the global rise is added to that of
            regional subsidence and of damming and diversion, Indian Ocean deltaic areas may
            register a relative subsidence of at least several meters, 1E!ading to coastal
            regression of several tens of kilometers by the twenty-second century (Milliman,
            1988).

            Indonesia

                 At least 40 percent of Indonesia's land surface is classified as vulnerable
            to sea level rise. In terms of both size and diversity, the country is home to
            one of the world's richest and most extensive series of wetlands.      Here, too,
            population pressures are already threatening these fragile ecosystems.
            Transmigration programs have resettled millions of people in the past several
            years from the overpopulated islands of Java and Bali to the tidal swamps of
            Sumatra and Kalimantan, a policy decision that may be much regretted when these
            lands give way to the sea. Although studies remain to be done on how many people
            will eventually be affected by the ocean's incursion, the numbers are certain
            to be high (Hekstra, 1989).

            China

                 A one- to two-meter rise in sea level could be disastrous for the Chinese
            economy as well. The Yangtze delta is one of China's most heavily farmed areas.
            Damming and subsidence have contributed to a continuing loss of this valuable
            land on the order of nearly 70 square kilometers per year since 1947.       A sea
            level rise of even one meter could sweep away large areas of the delta, causing
            a devastating loss in agricultural productivity in China (Broadus et al., 1986).


            PAYING BY THE METER

                China's 2,400-kilometer-long Great Wall is considered the largest
            construction project ever carried out, but it may soon be superseded in several,
            countries by modern-day analogues: great seawalls. Assuming a long-run increase
            in rates of global average sea level rise, societies will have to choose some
            adaptive strategies. Broadly speaking, they face two choices: fight or flight.
            Many governments see no alternative to building jetties, seawalls, groins, and
            bulkheads to hold back the sea. Yet the multibillion-dollar price tags attached
            to these may be higher than even some well-to-do countries can afford, especially
            when accounting for the long-term ecological damage such structures can cause.



                                                   114












                                                                                                Jacobson

                  Along with the intensified settlement of coastal areas worldwide over the
            past century has come a belief that, as coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and his
            colleagues put it, "human ingenuity could tame any natural  force," protecting
            human settlements from the forces of climate and the oceans. Conseuently,
            people have been inclined to build closer and closer to the ocean, investing
            billions of dollars in homes and seaside resorts and responding to danger by
            confrontation (Anonymous, 1985).

                  Nowhere in the world is the battle against the sea more actively engaged
            than in the Netherlands. Hundreds of kilometers of carefully maintained dikes
            and natural dunes keep the part of the country that is now well below sea level
            -- more than half the total -- from being flooded. As Dutch engineers know, the
            ocean doesn't relinuish land easily.    In early 1953, a storm surge that hit the
            delta region caused an unprecedented disaster. More than 160 kilometers of dikes
            were breached, leading to the inundation of 1,000 suare kilometers of land and
            more than 1,800 deaths. In response, the government put together the Delta Plan,
            a massive public works project that took two decades and the euivalent of 6
            percent of the country's gross national product each year until finally completed           
	      in 1986 (Goemans and Vellinga, 1987; UNEP, 1988).
                  The Dutch continue to spend heavily to keep their extensive system of dikes
            and pumps in shape, and are now protected against storms up to those With a
            probability of occurring once in 10,000 years.  But the prospect of  accelerated
            sea level rise implies that maintaining this level of safety may reuire
            additional investments of up to U.S. $10 billion by 2040 (Goemans and Vellinga,
            1987; UNEP, 1988).

                                                                              
                  Although these expenditures are large, they are trivial compared with what
            the United States, with more than 30,000 kilometers (19,000 miles) of coastline,
            would have to spend to protect Cape Cod, Long Island, North Carolina's Outer
            Banks, most of Florida, the Bayous of Louisiana, the Texas gulf coast, the San
            Francisco Bay area, and the Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey shores (The
            Times Atlas of the World, 1985).

                  Preliminary EPA estimates of the total bill for holding the  sea back from
            U.S. shores -- including costs to build bulkheads and levees, raise barrier
            islands, and pump sand, but not including the money needed For replacing or
            repairing infrastructure such as roads, sewers, water mains, and buried cables
            -- range from U.S. $32 to U.S. $309 billion for a one z cne-hz'!',F            'L-@,jc-meter rise in
            sea I evel .    (A one-meter rise would cost U.S. $/3 `4X @.S. $111 billion.)
            Extending the projections to impoverished coas`Call. areas of Africa, Asia, and
            South America   underscores the futility of s8L4cl4c an 8appro4a12d4@ 4ind4er a scenario of
            rapidly rising seas (Titus, 1989).

                  Nevertheless, in most industrial countries at least, property owners in
            coastal areas have become a powerful interest group supportive of defenses that
            will save their land, even if only for the short term. Many countries have made
            vast investments reclaiming land from the sea for us-, by -."4arge coastal
            populations: witness the efforts in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo. In most
            cases, governments have encouraged and continued to support, -L-0his constituency.

                                                         1165
 










             Prob7em Identification

             Heavy investments in roads, sewers, and other public services and insurance
             against disasters have largely been subsidized by taxpayers living far from any
             coast.

                  Political pressures to maintain these lands through dikes, dams, and the
             like will be high.    "The manner in which societies respond to the impact of
             rising sea levels," observes G.P. Hekstra, "will be determined by a mix of
             conditions [including] the vested interests that are threatened, the availability
             of finance ... employment opportunities, political responsibilities and national
             prestige." Eric Bird of Australia argues, for example, that state capitals and
             other seaside towns there and resorts in Africa and Asia will probably be
             maintained by beach nourishment programs -- literally "feeding" the beach with
             sand transported from elsewhere -- no matter the cost (Hekstra, 1989; Bird,
             1986).

                  Political support for subsidizing coastal areas may be undercut by competing
             fiscal demands over the long run.      In the United States, where a burgeoning
             budget deficit has vastly reduced expenditures on repairs and construction of
             bridges and roads, for example, the Federal Highway Administration estimates that
             bringing the nation's highway system up to "minimum engineering standards" would
             cost a mind-boggling U.S. $565 to U.S. $655 billion over the next 20 years.
             Today, that agency's budget is a meager U.S. $13 billion, and fiscal paralysis
             keeps it from growing any larger.     With increasing competition for scarce tax
             dollars, property owners in the year 2050 may find the general public reluctant
             to foot the bill for seawalls (Yoo, 1989).

                  Moreover, what may seem like protection       often turns out to be only a
             temporary palliative. While concrete structures    may divert the ocean's energies
             from one beach, they usually displace it onto      another.   And by changing the
             dynamics of coastal currents and sediment flow,    these hard structures interrupt
             the natural processes that allow wetlands and      beaches to reestablish upland,
             causing them to deteriorate and in many cases disappear (Pilkey and Wright, 1989;
             Dean, 1988).

                  Beach nourishment is a relatively benign defensive strategy that can work
             in some cases.    Comparing the costs and benefits illustrates that it is not
             usually as prohibitively expensive as other approaches.            Sand or beach
             nourishment, for example, can cost U.S. $1 million per mile (U.S. $500,000 per
             kilometer), but these costs are often justified by economic and recreational use
             of the areas. A recent study of Ocean City, Maryland, found it would cost about
             25@ per visitor to rebuild beaches to cope with a 30-centimeter rise, less than
             1 percent of the average cost of a trip to the beach. A more rapid rate of sea
             level rise would, of course, raise the ante. The fact remains that most beach
             replenishment is temporary at best, indicating the need for continuous investment
             (Pilkey and Wright, 1989; Dean, 1988).

                  Advocates of coastal environmental protection strategies argu  .e convincingly
             that coastal development should be limited.       M'ost assert, -for example, that
             future disasters may be prevented or the harm done by them lessened if highly
             vulnerable areas were protected. In recent years, the tide of public opinion

                                                     116











                                                                                       Jacobson

           in several states regarding conserving wetlands has tended to support the view
           that some property should be allowed to return to its natural state, although
           attitudes may changes as today's property owners face becoming tomorrow's
           proprietors of marshes and bogs.

                 The legal definitions of private property and of who is responsible for
           compensation in the event of natural disasters are already coming into question.
           As sea level rise accelerates, pushing up the costs of adaptation, these issues
           will most likely become part of an increasingly acrimonious debate over property
           rights and individual interests versus those of society at large.

                 Enforcement of the coastal protection law in South Carolina in the aftermath
           of the recent Hurricane Hugo is a good example of the types of conflicts that
           can arise. On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo came ashore at Charleston one
           day after it ravaged several islands in the Caribbean. The storm, creating an
           ocean surge that reached 20 feet at its highest point, killed 29 people on the
           mainland and caused an estimated U.S. $4 billion worth of damage in the United
           States.   It also sparked a controversy over South Carolina's new beachfront
           protection law.   The statute completely prohibits any new seawalls from being
           built and regulates commercial and residential construction in a setback area
           along the coast. Because the storm ate up so much of the existing beach, 159
           plots of land, on which houses were destroyed, all became part of the "dead zone"
           where new buildings are prohibited. Several homeowners have filed suit against
           the state for "taking property without just compensation." The States of Maine,
           Maryland, North Carolina, and Texas also have enacted coastal protection laws
           (see Klarin and Hershman, this volume; Smith, 1989; Griffiths, 1989; Titus,
           1989).

                 Site-specific studies of several towns in the United States suggest that
           incorporating projections of sea level rise into land-use planning can save money
           in the long run. Projections of costs in Charleston, South Carolina, show that
           a strategy that fails to anticipate and plan for the greenhouse world can be
           expensive. Depending on the zoning and development policies followed, including
           the amount of land lost and the costs of protective structures built, the costs
           of a three-meter sea level rise would exceed U.S. $1.9 billion by 2075 -- an
           amount equal to 26 percent of total current economic activity in this area. If
           land-use policies and building codes are modified to anticipate rising sea
           levels, this figure could be reduced by more than 60 percent. Similar studies
           of Galveston, Texas, show that economic impacts could be lowered from U.S. $965
           to U.S. $550 million through advanced planning (Titus, 1987a).

                 Obviously, heavily developed areas, such as the island of Manhattan, much
           of which is less than two meters above high tide, will not be left to be
           swallowed by the sea.    An accounting method is needed to establish priorities
           and assess the costs and benefits of protection strategies versus the costs of
           inundation. Several analysts are attempting to develop such a model . Gary Yohe,
           an economist at Wesleyan University in Connecticut, is developing a method of
           comparing the costs of not holding back the sea with those of protecting coasts
           on a year-to-year basis. His economic model is a first step toward "measuring
           the current value of real sources of ... wealth that might be threatened ... if

                                                   117











               Problem Identification

               a decision to forego   any protection from rising seas were made."        In his
               preliminary analysis, using Long Beach Island, New Jersey, as a case study, Yohe
               focuses on estimating the market price of threatened structures, the worth of
               threatened property, and the social value of threatened coastline.

                    A truly representative model should account for all the! costs and benefits
               -- economic, ecological, and social -- of protection against other options. One
               cost not explored in Yohels assessment is the loss in coastal ecological wealth
               as a side effect of protection.     In keeping with the figUres for the United
               States as a whole, for example, researchers have estimated that a 1.5-meter rise
               would eliminate about 80 percent of Charleston's wetlands with current barriers
               in place. If additional developed areas are protected by bulkheads and levees,
               a 90 percent loss is envisioned. The South Carolina beachfront protection law
               seeks to prevent this large-scale destruction, but its political viability is
               still in question (Titus, 1987a).

                    Protecti rig wetl ands requi res a trade-of f as wel 1 . Taki rig shore and wetl and
               conservation measures basically implies a willingness to relinquish to the sea
               some land area now in use or potentially available for social activities, such
               as farming and home building. A study of coastal land loss in Massachusetts by
               Graham Giese and David Aubrey of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution illustrates
               these processes and estimates the amount of land likely to be lost in
               Massachusetts under three scenarios (Giese and Aubrey, 1987, 1989).

                    Giese and Aubrey distinguish between upland (relatively dry terrain that
               is landward of wetland and not altered much by waves and tides), and wetland
               itself, including coastal bluffs, dunes, beaches, and marshes that are affected
               by these forces. Wetlands replace uplands as they migrate landward, resulting
               in loss of total upland area. Where wetlands are protected by law (as they are
               in Massachusetts) against being drained or filled, they gain at the expense of
               uplands, essentially protecting the ecological over the purely economic value
               of the land (Geise and Aubrey, 1987, 1989).

                    Relative sea level in Massachusetts has been rising some three millimeters
               annually since 1950. Under the first scenario in Giese and Aubrey's study, which
               assumes a continuation of current trends from 1980 through 2025, the sea along
               Massachusetts' coasts would rise 36 centimeters. The state would therefore lose
               0.23 square kilometers a year, or nearly 12 square kilometers over that period.
               The second scenario assumes a higher global average rise by 2025 (EPA's low to
               mid-range estimate), which when combined with subsidence leads to a total land
               loss in Massachusetts of some 30 square kilometers by 2025.   Finally, the third
               case, assuming a rise of 48 centimeters, costs Massachusetts nearly 42 square
               kilometers of upland, or commercially usable, area (Geise and Aubrey, 1987,
               1989).

                    Whatever the strategy, industrial countries are in a far better financial
               position to react than are developing nations. Bangladesh, for example, cannot
               afford to match the Dutch kilometer for kilometer in seawalls. But its danger
               is no less real. Debates over land loss may be a moot point in poorer countries
               like Bangladesh, where evacuation and abandonment of coastal land may be the only

                                                      118











                                                                                     Jacobson

        option when submergence and erosion take their toll and when soil and water
        salinity increase. As millions of people displaced by rising seas move inland,
        competition with those already living there for scarce food, water, and land may
        spur regional clashes.   Ongoing land tenure and equity disputes within countries
        will worsen. Existing    international tensions, such as those between Bangladesh
        and its large neighbor  to the west, India, are likely to heighten as the trickle
        of environmental refugees from the nation that is awash becomes a torrent.


        PLANNING AHEAD

              The threats posed by rapidly increasing sea level raise questions that
        governments and individuals must grapple with today. If the world moves quickly
        onto a sustainable path, the effects of global warming and sea level rise can
        be mitigated.    Minimizing the impacts of climate change will reqllire that a
        number of strategies be put in place right away.         An unprecedented level of
        international cooperation on agricultural, energy, forestry, and land-use
        policies will be required. Most important, perhaps, is to develop a method for
        comparing the costs of measures to avert global warming and its consequences
        against the costs of adaptation.       But for now, preparing to experience some
        degree of global and regional changes in sea level is a rational response.

              How can the world move away from the seemingly universal human tendency to
        react in the face of disaster but to ignore cumulative, long-term developments?
        An active public debate on coastal development policies is needed, extending from
        the obvious issues of the here and now -- beach erosion, river damming and
        diversion, subsidence, wetland loss -- to the uncertainties of how changes in
        sea level   in a greenhouse world will make matters far worse.       Raising public
        awareness  on the forthcoming changes, developing assessments that account for
        all future and present costs, and devising sustainable strategies based on those
        costs are all essential.

              Taking action now to safeguard coastal areas will have immediate benefits
        while preventing losses from soaring higher in the event of an accelerated sea
        level rise. Limiting coastal development is a first step, although strategies
        to accomplish this will differ in every country.         Governments may begin by
        ensuring that private property owners bear more the costs of settling in coastal
        areas.   A more systematic assessment is needed of the value of creating dead
        zones to be left in their natural state versus the economic and ecological costs
        that ongoing development and the subsequent need for large-scale protection will
        entail.

              A new concept of property rights will have to be developed.           Unbridled
        development of rivers and settlement of v-ulnerable coasts and low-lying deltas
        mean that more and more people and property will be exposed to land loss and
        potential disasters arising from storm surges and the like.        Governments that
        plan over the long term to limit development of endangered coasts and deltas can
        save not only money, but resources as well. Wherever wetlands and beaches are
        not bordered by permanent structures, they will be able to migrate and


                                                 119










             Problem Identification

             reestablish farther upland, allowing society to reap the intangible ecological
             benefits of biodiversity.

                  Of course, protection strategies will inevitably be carried out where the
             value of capital investments outweighs other considerations. But again the key
             is to plan ahead. As the Dutch discovered, more money can be slaved over the long
             term if dikes and drainage systems are planned for before rattler than after sea
             levels have risen considerably.

                  A reassessment of dam-building and river diversion projects in large deltas
             could lead to a lessening of the ongoing destruction of wetland areas and prevent
             further reductions in sedimentation, thereby minimizing subsidence as well. It
             is unlikely that the damage done by large-scale dams, like the Aswan, can be
             remedied.  As with past projects, however, analyses of many dams now in the
             pipeline do not reflect the often massive present and future environmental or
             external costs. Better water management and increased irrigation efficiencies
             can both increase crop yields and save water. Exploring the potential gains from
             conservation may preclude the need for many more large-scale dams. The same can
             be said of curtailing development of additional dams for hydropower by
             encouraging energy efficiency and conservation.

                  Additional money is needed to do more research on sea level globally and
             regionally.  Funds are needed to support studies of beach and wetland dynamics,
             as well as investigations of likely regional impacts; to take more frequent and
             widespread measurements of global and regional sea level; and to design cost-
             effective, environmentally benign methods of coping with coastal inundation.

                  The majority of developing nations most vulnerable to sea level rise can
             do little about global warming independently. But they have a clear stake in
             reducing pressures on coastal areas by taking immediate actions. Among the most
             important of these is slowing population growth and, where necessary, changing
             inequitable patterns of land tenure in interior regions that promote coastal
             settlement of endangered areas.    Furthermore, the governments of Bangladesh,
             China, Egypt, India, and Indonesia, to name just a few, are currently promoting
             river development projects that will harm delta ecosystems in the short term and
             hasten the date they are lost permanently to rising seas.

                  The issue of how to share the costs of adaptation equitably may well be
             among the hardest to resolve. Industrial countries are responsible for by far
             the largest share of the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. And no
             matter what strategies poorer nations adopt to deal with sea level rise, they
             will need financial assistance to carry them out.        Problems with coastal
             protection, environmental refugees, changes in land and water allocation, and
             a hose of other issues will plague poor coastal nations.     The way industrial
             countries come to terms with their own liability in the face of accelerated sea
             level rise will play a significant role in the evolution of international
             cooperation during the second half of the 21st century.




                                                   120











                                                                                              Jacobson


            BIBLIOGRAPHY

            Anonymous. 1985. National Strategy for Beach Preservation. Conference Summary
            for Second Skidway Institute of Oceanography Conference on America's Shoreline,
            Savannah, GA, June.

            Barnett, T.P.     1983.   Recent changes in sea level and their possible causes.
            Climatic Change 5.

            Bird, E.C.F.     1986.    Potential effects of sea level rise on the coasts of
            Australia, Africa, and    Asia. In: Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and
            Global Climate Vol IV: Sea Level Rise. J.G. Titus, ed. Washington, DC: U.S.
            Environmental Protection Agency.

            Bird, E.C.F.     1990.    Coastal erosion and a rising sea level.           In:    Coastal
            Subsidence: Problems and Strategies. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons, in
            press).

            Bird, E.C.F. 1987. The modern prevalence of beach erosion. Marine Pollution
            Bulletin 18(4).

            Boorman, L.A, et al. 1989.         Climate Change, Rising Sea Level and the British
            Coast, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology Report No. 1.           London:    Her Majesty's
            Stationary Office.

            Broadus, J., et al. 1986. Rising sea level and damming of rivers: possible
            effects in Egypt and Bangladesh. In: Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone
            and Global Climate Vol IV: Sea Level Rise. J.G. Titus, ed. Washington, DC:
            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

            Dean, R.G. 1988. Managing sand and preserving shorelines. Oceanus 31(3).

            Dean, C.    1989.     As beach erosion accelerates, 'remedies are costly and few.
            The New York Times, August 1.

            Devoy, R. J. N.     1987.    Sea level applications and management.          Progress in
            Oceanography 18

            Giese, G.S., and D.G. Aubrey.         1987.   Losing coastal upland to relative sea
            level rise: 3 scenarios for Massachusetts. Oceanus 30(3).

            Giese, G.S., and D.G. Aubrey.        1989.   The relationship between relative sea-
            level rise and coastal upland retreat in New England.          In: Coping with Climate
            Change. J.D. Topping, ed. Washington, DC: Climate Institute.

            Goemans, T., and P. Vellinga. 1987. Low countries and high seas.                 Presented
            to the First North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change:                   A
            Cooperative Approach, Washington, D.C., October 27-29



                                                        121










                Problem Identification

                Griffiths, D.    1989.   South Carolina Coastal Council, personal communication,
                October 26.

                Hansen, J.E., et al. 1988. Global Climate Changes as Forecast by the GISS 3-
                D Model. Journal of Geophysical Research, August 20, 1988.

                Hawxhurst, P. 1987. Louisiana's responses to irreversible environmental change;
                strategies for mitigating impacts from Coastal Land Loss. In: Proceedings of
                Symposium on Climate Change in the Southern United States.                M. Meo, ed.
                Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

                Hekstra, G.P.      1989.    Global warming and rising sea levels:           the policy
                implications. The Ecologist, January/February.

                Henderson - Sell ers, A., and K. McGuffie. 1986. The threat from melting ice caps.
                 New Scientist, June 12.

                Hoffman, J.S., et al. 1983.         Projecting Future Sea Level Rise. Washington,
                DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

                Hoffman, J.S. et al. 1986.         Future global warming and sea level rise.         In:
                Iceland Symposium '85. P. Brun, ed. Reykjavik: National Energy Authority

                Jacobson, J.L.    1988.    Environmental Refugess:     a Yardstick of Habitability,
                Worldwatch Paper No. 86. Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, November.

                Miller, T.R., et al.        1988.     Impact of Global Climate Change on Urban
                Infrastructure (draft).     Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

                Milliman, J.D.     1988.   Rising sea level and changing sediment influxes: real
                and future problems for    Indian Ocean coastal nations. In: IOC/UNESCO Workshop
                on Regional Cooperation in Marine Science in the Central Indian Ocean and
                Adjacent Seas and Gulfs (Colombo, July 8-13, 1985), Workshop Report No. 37-
                Supplement. Paris: UNESCO, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

                Milliman, J.D., et al. 1988. Environmental and Economic Impact of Rising Sea
                Level and Subsiding Deltas:      The Nile and Bengal Examples.       Woods Hole, MA:
                Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, unpublished.

                Milliman, J.D. 1989. Sea levels: past, present, and future..         Oceanus, Summer.

                Murty, T.S., et al. 1988. Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. In: IOC/UNESCO
                Workshop on Regional Cooperation in Marine Science in the Central Indian Ocean
                and Adjacent Seas and Gulfs (Colombo, July 8-13, 1985), Workshop Report No. 37-
                Supplement. Paris: UNESCO, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

                Pilkey, O.H., and H.L. Wright, 111.       1988.   Seawalls versus beaches.      Journal
                of Coastal Research, Autumn



                                                          122








                                                                                          Jacobson

          Pilkey, O.H., Jr. 1989. Testimony before the Environment, Energy, and Natural
          Resources Subcommittee, Committee on Government Operations, U.S. House of
          Representatives, Washington, D.C., April 28.

          Pirazzoli,    P.A.     1985.      Sea Level    Change.        Nature and Resources,
          October/December.

          Robin, G. de Q.      1986. Projecting the rise in sea level caused by warming of
          the atmosphere. In: The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change and Ecosystems. 8.
          Bolin et al., eds. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons.

          Salinas, I.M., et al.       1986.    Changes occurring along a rapidly submerging
          coastal area: Louisiana, USA. Journal of Coastal Resources, Summer.

          Sestini, G., et al.      1989.    Implications of Expected Climate Changes in the
          Mediterranean Region:      An Overview.      MAP Technical Reports Series, No. 27.
          Athens, Greece: United Nations Environment Programme.

          Smith, B.     1989.   South Carolina on long road,to recovery after devastating
          storm. Associated Press, October 21.

          The Times Atlas of the World. 1985. New York: Times Books Ltd.

          The Oceanography Report.       1985.   Changes in relative mean sea level.           EOS'
          November 5.

          Titus, J.G.      1987a. Causes and effects of sea level rise. Presented at the
          First North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change: A Cooperative
          Approach, Washington, D.C., October 27-29.

          Titus, J.G., ed. 1987b. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands.
          Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

          Titus, J.G. 1989. Sea level rise. In:            Potential Effects of Global Climate
          Change on the United States.        Washington, DC- U.S. Environmental Protection
          Agency.

          Titus, J.G., S.P. Leatherman, C. Everts, D. Kriebel and R. Dean.                    1985.
          Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Beach at Ocean City, Maryland.
          Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

          UNEP.     1989.  United Nations Environment Programme.         Criteria for Assessing
          Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: A Global Inventory to High Risk Areas. Delft,
          The Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics Laboratory.

          UNEP.     1988.  United Nations Environment Programme and the Government of The
          Netherland.     Impact of Sea Level Rise on Society:           A Case Study for the
          Netherlands.    Delft, Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics Laboratory.

          Yoo, J.     1989.   Bad trip:     as highways decay, their state becomes drag on
          economy. Wall Street Journal, August 30.


                                                     123










                          ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE:
                            THE ISSUE OF WINNERS AND LOSERS
                         IN A GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT


                                         MICHAEL H. GLANTZ
                           Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
                          National Center for Atmospheric Research'
                                         Boulder, Colorado





           INTRODUCTION

                Although most reviews of the greenhouse problem begin with the 1890s works
           of Swedish scientist Arrhenius, the processes have been well known for more than
           a century.   Interest in the possible impacts on climate of CO, emissions have
           waxed and waned since that time with interest reaching temporary peaks appearing
           in the mid-1930s (Callendar, 1938), the mid-1950s (Revelle and Suess, 1957), and
           again in the late 1970s (e.g., Kellog, 1977).

                Today, we are inundated by assessments of the prospects of a global warming
           and its possible impacts on society and the environment. Discussions of such a
           prospect have steadily increased during the past fifteen years, reaching amazing
           levels in the past year or so. In the United States, about three dozen bills
           related to the global warming issue were submitted during the last congressional
           session.

                The century-long interest in this issue has been interrupted partly by other
           more pressing and urgent historical events such as two World Wars, a worldwide
           depression, decolonization, the Cold War, and a temporary global cooling; and
           partly by the fact that the impacts of a temporary CO,-induced global warming
           were originally believed to be beneficial to society.      For example, Callendar
           (1938) suggested that a greenhouse warming would help to thwart the emergence of
           an apparently imminent ice age. Scientific evidence suggested that the Earth was
           coming to the end of an interglacial period and that at any decade, the ice age
           process could begin.

                From about 1940 to the late 1960s, the Earth underwent        an unexplained
           cooling.   Discussions in the scientific community about the possibility of a
           global cooling were widespread. Scientists provided anecdotal (but nonetheless


                'The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National
           Science Foundation.

                                                  125










              Prob7em Identification

              convincing both to the     lay public and segments of the scientific community)
              evidence to support the    belief that the Earth was possibly on the threshold of
              an ice age: the growing    season in England had been shortened by two weeks, fish
              species formerly caught    off the northern coast of Iceland began appearing only
              off its southern coast; sea ice in the North Atlantic had increased in extent in
              the early 1970s and was appearing in normally ice-free shipping lanes; and hay
              production in Iceland had declined by 25% as a result of less hospitable weather.
              In the United States, the fact that the armadillo, which had migrated as far
              north as Kansas in warmer decades, was starting to retreat toward the south was
              also used as evidence to support the ice age hypothesis.       Geologic records were
              invoked as well to show that an ice age was near.

                   During the brief period of concern regarding a global cooling, one issue
              widely considered was how it might affect the relative economic and political
              positions of different countries.       Even the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency
              undertook studi es to show how the cool i ng mi ght af fect the U. S. S. R. 's agri cul ture
              (CIA, 1976). The Eco7ogist examined the potential impacts of a few degrees of
              cooling on agriculture in the Canadian Prairies (Goldsmith, 1977).

                   Some books and articles on the topic went so far as to identify specific
              countries that would become climate-related world powers in the event of a
              cool i ng. , For exampl e, Ponte (1976) suggested that "adapti ng to a cool er cl imate
              in the north latitudes, and to a drier climate nearer the equator, will require
              vast resources and almost unlimited energy....           A few countries, such as
              equatorial Brazil, Zaire, and Indonesia, could emerge as; climate-created
              superpowers."   He also suggested that "We can say with high probability today
              that the global monsoon rainfall will be below average for the remainder of the
              century."

                   Another book on the possibility of a global cooling (The Impact Team, 1977)
              suggested that with a cooling "...there would be broad belts of excess and
              deficit rainfall in the middle latitudes; more frequent failure of the monsoons
              that dominate the Indian subcontinent, south China and western Africa; shorter
              growing seasons for Canada, northern Russia, and north China.            Europe could
              expect to be cooler and wetter.      Of the main grain-growing regions, only the
              United States and Argentina would escape adverse effects."              There was no
              reluctance whatsoever to discuss who might win and who might lose or to identify
              specific countries or specific economic sectors within a country as winners and
              as losers.

                   A striking difference between the scientific and political responses in the
              1970s (to a potential cooling) and those of today (to a warming) is that today
              there is a strong opposition within scientific as well as policymaking circles
              to recognize the existence of, let alone identify, specific winners and losers,
              especially winners.    U.S. Senator Albert Gore, for example, argues that there
              will be no winners in the event of a global warming, a view that apparently is
              also held by the U.S. EPA. Soviet scientist Mikhail Budyko, in contrast, asserts
              that everyone will benefit from a global warming. Perhaps the comments that U.S.
              Senator Tsongas made about diametrically opposing views on the energy crisis of
              the 1970s and 1980s apply to Gore and Budyko:         "Both of these approaches are

                                                       126











                                                                                        Glantz

            equally absurd, equally rhetorical, and equally successful. When talking to the
            convinced, they are very powerful. And that is basically how most people address
            the issue: we are awash in rhetoric, not to mention hypocrisy, when what we need
            is a careful sorting and weighing of the facts and values involved in making --
            or not making -- a decision."

                 Many people believe discussing winners and losers will be divisive and
            undermine efforts to put together a global coalition to combat global warming.
            Opposition to the open recognition of winners and losers was recently highlighted
            when Barber Conable, President of the World Bank, suggested in a speech that
            there might be winners with a warmer atmosphere. Environmental groups, which
            have been marching lock-step on this particular issue, opposed his public
            comments. As a result of his speech, some U.S. Congressmen even suggested the
            need for a closer scrutiny of the World Bank's activities and budget.          For
            example, The Washington Post (12 September 1989) reported, "In a letter to
            Conable, Senator Kasten wrote, 'The bank's failure to be on the front lines of
            efforts to fight global warming threatens the bank's long-term financial support
            from Congress."'

                 A similar argument was raised with respect to preventive versus adaptive
            strategies.   When the U.S. EPA released two reports in 1983 suggesting that
            global warming was inevitable (Seidel and Keyes, 1983) and, as a result, people
            should plan for rising sea level (Hoffman et al., 1983), the Friends of the Earth
            publication "Not Man Apart" denounced the Agency for "throwing in the towel,"
            while at the same time, the President's science advisor denounced the reports as
            "alarmist."  There was a feeling that "premature" discussions about adaptive
            strategies with respect to global warming would break down the development of a
            united effort to support the enactment of preventive strategies.   Proponents of
            preventive strategies wanted attention to focus on prevention as the best way to
            cope with global warming.

                 There is, however, one projected impact of global warming for which one is
            allowed to identify specific winners and losers -- sea level rise.       This is
            probably because it is the one impact of a global warming for which there may be
            no obvious winners at the national level.      No one is reluctant to identify
            specific losers associated with sea level rise (papers have identified winners
            at the subnational level, such as coastal engineering firms and people who would
            have beachfront property as a result of a neighbor's misfortune).        In this
            regard, one could argue that the sea level rise problem is similar to the
            stratospheric ozone depletion problem -- no readily apparent national winners can
            be identified.   Such would probably not be the case for changes in rainfall
            distribution, water resources availability, agricultural production, fisheries
            productivity, and energy production and consumption.

                 In this paper, it is my intention to consider problems associated with the
            process of labeling winners and losers. What factors, for e 'xample, must be taken
            into account in labeling a region, an activity, or a country a winner or a loser?
            How do perceptions compare with reality?    Can wins and losses be objectively
            identified? What are the costs and benefits of not addressing this issue as
            opposed to addressing it openly?

                                                   127











               Problem Identification

                     My intention is not to label specific countries as winners or losers. To
               do that, one could simply use any of the GCM-generated scenarios, the scenarios
               generated by paleoecological         reconstructions,     or assessments of recent
               environmental changes and label specific countries and regions within countries
               accordingly.

                     I realize that there is a risk associated with such an identification. If
               winners and losers are identified with some degree of reliability, the potential
               for unified action against the global warming will be reduced. Winners will not
               necessarily want to relinquish any portion of their benefits to losers in order
               to mitigate the impacts of their losses. On the other hand, there is also a risk
               in not making such a distinction between winners and losers. While scientists
               and policymakers formally discuss only losses associated with a global warming,
               others may perce i ve that there wi 11 be pos i t i ve benef i ts as wel 1 . The resul t i s
               that the proponents for action on global warming could be likened to the fable
               about the emperor's new clothes, professing there are not winners, while everyone
               agrees with them in public but privately believes the opposite.              This could
               sharply reduce the credibility of the proponents.


               SCENARIOS OF WINNERS AND LOSERS

                     In the following section, the notion of winners and losers is discussed in
               terms of climatic conditions. These conditions include today's global climate
               regime, an altered climate regime, and varying rates of change.

               Winners and Losers With Today's Global Climate Regime

                     It seems obvious that, say fifty years hence, there will be some societies
               that benefit from whatever climate exists at that time. After all, with today's
               climate, we can identify climate-related winners and losers. The following map
               (Figure 1) shows drought-prone regions in sub-Saharan Africa, some of whic       'h could
               be considered climate-related losers. Such maps, depicting drought-prone (and
               flood-prone) areas, exist for other regions around the globe.

                     One could argue, however, that there has been little sustained (or
               effective) effort to date by climate-related winners to assist those who might
               be considered climate-related losers. Such a statement, of course, calls into
               question how foreign aid from the international donor community has been
               distributed. We have seen, for example, that in the past several decades foreign
               assistance has been frequently tied to political considerations (e.g., aid to
               Cambodia and South Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s, or to Ethiopia in the 1980s).
               Exampl es that justi fy such 1 ow expectati ons about adequate, apol i ti cal assi stance
               from the industrialized countries are not difficult to find. In the early 1970s
               when there were widespread droughts throughout the world (except in the United
               States), then-Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz spoke about how food exports
               from the United States would be a new tool in the nation's foreign policy
               negotiating kit. Despite statements to the contrary, few leaders in countries
               chronically affected by the adverse impacts of today's climate believe that they
               can rely on assistance from those favored by today's global climate.

                                                          128











                                                                                                                                                 Glantz



                                          WAS MOST WCALLY AFFECTED BY THE DROUG11T

                                         As of June 1985


                                                                         TUNI IA

                                           WESTERN
                                            SAHARA

                                                               ALGERIA
                                                                                    LIBYA       EGYPT


                                             VA100 I ANIA

                                                            MA[ I
                                                                         N1(A k

                                                                                    t,l Wd)        II)AN               DJIBOUTI
                                              GUINEA
                                                         Hy      t3t:NiN
                                                                     NIGERIA                                  F I 1,110PIA
                                                       Ab I
                                                                                            RAIL
                                                                                       C.E'F'T"
                                                                                      FRICAN R&.'@
                                                    ... .......            CAMEROON
                                                     ................. .
                                                                 *:;Xi i@:
                                             SIERRA
                                             LEONE
                                                    L E        TOGO                                  UGANDA
                                          GUINEA-BISSA      EQUATORIA     GAS N
                                                                                            RWANDA
                                                               GUINEA
                                        hAMBIA
                                                                                            BURUNDI
                                                                                          ZAIRE








                                                                                                 IMBASWE
                                                                                   NAMIBIA
                                                                                                             NX



                                                                                             SWAZILAND                   :X
                                                                                          LESOTHOO
                                                                                                                  Critically affected
                                                                                              -:x.                 Most critically
                                                                                                                   affected

                                                                                                           Localized drought is
                                                                                                           prevalent in several
                                                                                                           other countries.

                                                                                                                 Source: United Nations


                                                                                                        New York Time, 8/20/85


                  Figure 1. Areas most critically affected by the drought.
                                               TERN                      TUNI @IA
                                            @SHARA
                                                               ALGE
                                                                     @RIA
                                                                                    LIBY@A
                                                    II IN A








































                          The Colorado River Compact of 1922 provides an example of a recent "climate
                  change" in which winners and losers have been identified.                                               The Colorado River
                  Basin was divided into two parts, the Upper and Lower Basins. The flow in the
                  system was estimated at about 15 million acre-feet (maf) based on the record for
                  the previous 20-year period. The representatives of the various states in the

                                                                                     129










               Problem Identification

               basin agreed to divide in absolute terms 15 maf average annual flow equally
               between the two basins: 7.5 maf for each basin (75 maf over a 10-year period).
               However, because the Upper Basin states thought that there was, in fact, more
               water in the  system than 15 maf, they agreed to provide the lower basin states
               with 7.5 maf, thinking that they would benefit from any surplus that might exist
               (for further  details, see Brown, 1988).

                    Shortly after the agreement was signed, however, the Colorado River entered
               a period of   low streamflow, setting record lows in the 1930s (the Dust Bowl
               decade). (Today, the average annual streamflow is estimated at about 13.5 maf.)
               The loss of streamflow has to be absorbed by the Upper Basin. Thus, in this
               situation, one can identify winners and losers as a result from what might be
               considered a climate change that has, to date, lasted about six decades.

                    Carrying this analysis further, one might ask what those who benefited from
               the Compact have done to compensate those who have not? What lessons for climate
               change responses by society might be drawn from this situation? Should future
               water compacts be based on proportional divisions of a variable resource instead
               of absolute amounts?    What does this case study suggest about when to reach
               agreement on a variable resource -- before winners and losers are identified or
               after?

                    Finally, an important related question that merits attention, but has yet
               to be addressed among discussions about possible strategic responses to global
               warming, is the following: Who loses and who wins if no action is taken and the
               climate remains as it is today?      If it could be ascertained that no global
               warming were to occur, what actions would   today's climate-related winners take
               to alleviate the climate-related problems   of today's climate-related losers?

               Winners and Losers With an Altered Global   Climate Regime

                    While we do not even know the global   let alone regional specifics of the
               havoc (or windfall) that a climate change   will bring, we can assume that there
               will be winners and losers (however defined) with a global climate warming.

                    Some researchers and policymakers who are primarily concerned about the
               regional impacts believe that, compared to the present climate of their region,
               it is possible that their climate could improve rather than 'worsen with a global
               warming. Saudi Arabia is one such example; Ethiopia may be another. Given their
               current   climate,  they might    consider the    risk of change worthwhile.
               Bandyopadhyaya (1983), an Indian   social scientist, as well as Budyko (1988) of
               the U.S.S.R., have made this argument at length in favor of a climate warming.

                    Often, when people talk about the possibility of increased.rainfall in a
               given region, a counterargument is raised that ambient temperatures (and,
               therefore, evaporation rates) will also increase. This would negate any benefits
               that might come from additional rainfall. Yet, history shows that societies have
               devised ways to capture rainfall and reduce evaporation, thereby improving the
               percentage of rainfall that they can effectively use.


                                                      130










                                                                                       Glantz

                Can we find examples of environmental conditions that different societies
           might have to cope with in the advent of a global warming? Are there existing
           climate change analogues for most places in the world? In the United States, it
           has been suggested that Iowa will become hotter and drier. Might Nebraska or
           Kansas provide a glimpse at Iowa's possible future environmental setting and,
           therefore, a glimpse of Iowa's future? Attempts to identify climate analogues
           are not new. The following maps of the U.S.S.R. (CIA, 1974) (Figure 2) and China
           (Nuttonson, 1947) (Figure 3) depict agro-climate analogues from North America.
           Similar analogue maps could be created that pertain to climate warming once we
           have an improved regional picture of the impacts of a global warming.

           Winners and Losers and Rates of Change

                As we have seen with other environmental changes, it is often not the change
           itself but the rapid rates of change that are so disruptive of human activities
           (including the ability to adjust).    If changes are slow enough (whatever that
           means), their impacts may be less disruptive in the short and medium terms than
           if the rates of change are much faster.



                                                                                41











                                       UP

                                                        Yukovi vrrtlory




                                                                                     00



                                                          Albota
               X ILI
                                             1%0 Aw in
                                              m" @1,I @ @ 6,11r "@ ,,








           Figure 2. North American climatic analogues for U.S.S.R. crop regions.

                                                  131









                Problem Identification








                                                      Gliriatic Analogues
                                     Wyo ming                                                     Minnesota


                                                                                    Nebraska
                                @@ 47                                    North Dakoi
                                                                            _,,W@"
                      Nevada                                                        la
                                   4 4*,                                          Kansas
                                                   Montana
                                                                                              04wo
                                   7@
                                                                                  Kentucky
                                            C
                                            C
                                             olorado


                                              J
                                                                                Oklahoma
                              Idaho
                                     -@Vr-  ,
                                        41V                         East


                                                                                 e
                                                                         Te nes

                                                                     Oklahoma&
                    The North Ame6can locations Indicated have                            0
                    temperatures and rainfall somewhat similar to
                    areas @n China, Comparisons such as these                       OW - SN.
                    can an*ly be Suggestm



                                                                      Puerto
                                                                        Rico  j



                Figure 3. Climatic analogues: comparing China to                North America.


                      One of society's problems in confronting the             climate change issue is the
                absence of a realistic disaster scenario or "dread factor." While attempts have
                been made in the recent past to identify such scenarios, they have been generally
                dismissed under closer scrutiny.                For example, the possibility of the
                disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet (which would cause sea levels to
                rise 8 meters) was raised at the end of the 1970s. Upon closer scrutiny of the
                geophysical mechanisms involved, the probabilities associated with this happening
                in the next century were sharply reduced. The use of the notion of a doubling
                of CO, from pre-industrial levels was another such attempt.                      But, as some
                observers have noted, there was nothing cataclysmic about a doubling itself.

                                                               132









                                                                                                G7antz

             Major environmental and societal impacts could occur before as likely as after
             the doubling.    Interestingly, the time associated with the doubling has been
             moved closer to the present by different researchers; beginning at first with
             2050-2075, to 2020, and even to 2010.

                  Yet another attempt to identify a dread factor was the article and news
             release about how the global climate regime might shift abruptly in a steplike
             manner as opposed to gradually (Broecker, 1988).          Steplike changes in global
             climate would give societies little time to cope with and adjust to the
             relatively abrupt environmental change that might ensue.

                  The most recent dread factor appeared in the testimony to Congress of
             scientist James Hansen during the summer of 1988, in which he stated that the
             four hottest years on record in North America occurred in the 1980s (U.S.
             Congress, 1988). He contended that this was proof that the greenhouse effect was
             in progress and that the especially severe drought of the summer of 1988 was
                                             2
             linked to the global warming.      Other scientists (e.g., Trenberth et al., 1988),
             have since shown that the severe drought of 1988 was most likely related to other
             geophysical aspects and not necessarily to the global warming phenomenon.

                  Search for a dread factor in order to catalyze action is, in itself, a risky
             business.    Each time a new dread factor has been suggested, evaluated, and
             challenged, it    has failed to stand up under scientific scrutiny, thereby
             diminishing  the  reliability and credibility of the global warming proponents.
             Finally, several  of the disaster scenarios cited above relate to rates of climate
             change.   Rates   of change can have very significant impacts on society (and
             therefore are especially important to political decisionmakers). They must be
             examined and projected with objectivity and care.


             RELATED QUESTIONS

                  Before attempting to identify specific winners and losers that might result
             from a global warming, there are several "prior" questions that must be
             addressed. In this section, some of these questions are posed and only briefly
             discussed to stimulate more critical examination. The following is meant to be
             suggestive of the kinds of concerns that must be raised when assessing the
             societal impacts of a global warming. These, among other "prior" questions, will
             be discussed at an international workshop on assessing winners and losers in a
             global warming context, tentatively scheduled for late spring 1990 in Malta.


                  2  Editor's note: On the other hand, the Science Times section of the New
             York Times on January 3 reported that Hansen agreed with Tremberth's analysis and
             i mpl i ed that Hansen does not bel i eve the greenhouse ef fect to be a f actor i n heat
             waves and droughts.      In a letter to the Times on January 11, 1989, Hansen
             responded that "as I testified to the Senate during the 1988 heat wave, the
             greenhouse effect cannot be blamed for a specific drought, but it alters
             probabilities ... climate models indicate that the greenhouse effect is now
             becoming large enough to compete with natural climate variability."

                                                        133









              Prob7em Identification

              What Do We Mean by a Win or a Loss?

                   It is not sufficient, meaningful, or realistic to equate more rainfall than
              normal with a win and less rainfall than normal with a loss.       In reality, the
              actual annual amount of rainfall in a given location does not by itself tell much
              about agricultural production. There are numerous articles about definitions of
              drought (e.g., Wilhite and Glantz, 1985).           Researchers have identified
              differences between meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologic droughts. If
              the expected annual amount falls (no meteorological drought) but is distributed
              throughout the growing season at the wrong time with respect to crop growth and
              development, a sharp decline in agricultural production (an agricultural drought)
              could occur.

                   Defining a win or a loss according to changes in evaporation rates also may
              not be very useful.    If evaporation rates increase, and all else remains the
              same, then there will be a depletion of water resources.        However, as noted
              earlier, people in many arid and semiarid areas have devised ways to minimize the
              impacts of high evaporation rates by the way they collect, store, and use their
              available, often scanty, water resources.      Thus, the dependence on a single
              physical parameter to identify the costs or benefits to a society of a climate
              change has severe limitations.

              How Does One Measure a Win or a Loss?

                   One might suspect that Canada will be a winner because as temperatures
              increase and the growing season lengthens, agricultural . productivity will
              improve.  But, what will be the impacts on Canadian fisheries, the timing of
              seasonal snowmelt, or the Canadian ski industry?

                   Another example of the difficulty associated with measuring wins and losses
              is provided by historic attempts to augment precipitation in a semiarid part of
              central Colorado (U.S.A).    Cloud seeders were hired to suppress hail, augment
              rainfall during the growing season, and reduce rainfall during harvest, in order
              to improve the  productivity of hops for beer production.        Another group of
              farmers growing other crops (e.g., lettuce) and ranchers with different moisture
              requirements in the same valley opposed these cloud seeding activities.          The
              conflict between the two factions became violent and the operation was eventually
              halted.   Thus, even@within small areas there can be different responses to
              'changes in rainfall, making an objective determination of a win or a loss
              exceedingly difficult.

                   Finally, if one group loses, but loses less than others, should they be
              considered as absolute loser or relative winner?

              Can Wins and Losses Be Aggregated?

                   While wins and losses can be added together to produce a net figure, one
              must question the value of that figure.     The wins (or losses) are not shared
              commodities. Those who lose may not benefit in any way from those who win. For
              example, when the Peruvian anchoveta fishery collapsed, those fishermen who had

                                                      134











                                                                                        Glantz

            focused their activities (fishing gear, fishmeal processing factories, etc.) on
            exploiting anchoveta were not prepared to take advantage of exploiting the sharp
            increase in shrimp populations that appeared along the Peruvian and Ecuadorian
            coasts. A country can expect to have both winners and losers within its borders
            in the event of a climate change. While the winners may be in a position to take
            care of themselves, someone will have to help the losers. Wins and losses cannot
            be aggregated. A win is a win and a loss is a loss.

            What Is the Relationship Between Perceptions of Wins and Losses and Actual Wins
            and Losses?

                 Given the uncertainties surrounding the regional impacts of a global
            warming, actual winners and losers within and between countries cannot be
            identified with any degree of confidence. Perhaps, we will learn that in reality
            everyone will lose with a global warming of the atmosphere. However, as long as
            some regions or countries perceive themselves to be winners, they will act
            according to this perception.    Thus, the issue of winners and losers must be
            addressed openly, objectively, and scientifically, if we wish to minimize the
            chance that actions taken in response to a global warming will be based on
            misperceptions.

            How Should One Deal With the Issue of Intergenerational Equity?

                 Identifying winners and losers spatially, as well as temporally, must become
            a concern of those dealing with the global warming issue.        Arguments about
            intergenerational equity have been invoked to generate support for taking action
            now against global warming. We are asked to take actions today to protect future
            generations from the environmental insults wrought by the present generation.
            But how can intergenerational equity generate widespread support for consequences
            a few generations in the future when we cannot even achieve intragenerational
            equity today.

                 It appears that we have come to believe that any change in the status quo
            is, by definition, a bad change.     But the real answer to this question will
            depend on who is asked to respond. A Saudi Arabian might believe that any change
            in the current climate regime will most likely be better for future generations
            of Saudi Arabians than the existing one. The opposite belief might be held by
            a farmer in the U.S. Great Plains.



            CONCLUSION

                 Every discipline has dealt with the concept of winners and losers --
            biology, political science, sociology, economics, geography, law, ecology,
            conflict resolution, risk assessment, game theory, and so on. Climate-related
            impact as a result of global warming is only the latest topic that requires
            consideration of winners and losers.

                 There have been conflicting views on whether to identify specific countries
            as winners or losers in the event of a global warming of the atmosphere. There

                                                    135










               Problem Identification

               has also been a reluctance to discuss the possibility that there may be any
               winners at all. It is time to get beyond that conflict and to ask questions that
               need to be addressed so that the notion of winners and losers; can be assessed on
               a more objective and realistic level.

                    There is a calculated risk in such a discussion. Once specific winners have
               been reliably identified, there may be reluctance on their part to lend support
               for global action to combat a greenhouse warming. We must take this risk. Many
               issues must be resolved before we will be in a position to, identify with any
               degree of confidence who those specific winners will be. In the meantime, other
               issues, such as equity, definition, measurement, and perception vs. reality, must
               be addressed if we ever hope to identify with some degree of confidence how
               specific countries, economic sectors, and regions within countries will be
               affected by climate change in the 21st century.


               BIBLIOGRAPHY

               Bandyopadhyaya, J.    1983. Climate and World Order: An Inquiry into the Natural
               Causes of Underdevelopment. New Delhi, India: South Asian.
               Broecker, W.S. 1987. Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? Nature 328:123-6.

               Brown, B.G.     1988.    Climate variability and the Colorado River Compact:
               Implications for responding to climate change.          In:   Societal Responses to
               Reg i onal Cl i mate Change: Forecast i ng by Anal ogy. Gl antz, M. H. , ed. Boul der, CO:
               Westview Press. p. 279-305.

               Budyki, M. 1. 1988. Anthropogenic climate changes. Paper       presented at the World
               Congress on Climate and Development, 7-10 November 1988, Hamburg, FRG.

               Callendar, G.S.    1938.   The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its
               influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorlogical Society
               64:223-241.

               Central Intelligence Agency. 1976. USSR: The Impact of Recent Climate Change
               on Grain Production.   Report ER 76-10577 U. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence
               Agency.

               Goldsmith, E. 1977.    The future of an affluent society: The case of Canada. The
               Ecologist 7:160-94.

               Kellogg, W.W. 1977. Effects of Human Activities on Global Climate: A Summary
               with Considerations of the Implications of a Possibly Warmer Earth. WMO Tech.
               Note 156 (WMO No. 486). Geneva: WMO.

               Nuttonson, M.Y. 1947. Ecological crop geography of China and its agro-climatic
               analogues in North America. American Institute of Crop Ecology, International
               Agro-Climatological Series, Study No. 7.

               Ponte, L. 1976. The Cooling. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

                                                        136










                                                                                           Glantz

         Revelle, R., and H.E. Suess. 1957. Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere
         and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO, during the past
         decades. Tellus 9:18-27.

         The Impact Team. 1977. The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age.
         New York: Ballantine Books.

         Tsongas, P.E.     1982.   Foreword.    In: Regional Conflict and National Policy.
         Price, K.A., ed. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. p. xi-xiv.

         Trenberth, K.E., G.W. Branstator, and P.A. Arkin. 1988. Origins of the 1988
         North American drought. Science 242:1640-45.

         U.S. Congress.      1988.   Hearings before the Committee on Energy and Natural
         Resources, U.S. Senate, 100th Congress.       First Session on the Greenhouse Effect
         and Global Climate Change. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. p.
         89-338.

         Wilhite, D.A., and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The
         role of definitions. Water International 10:111-20.



































                                                   137





















               OPTIONS FOR ADAPTING TO
                   CHANGING CLIMATE











                 OPTIONS FOR RESPONDING TO A RISING SEA LEVEL
                  AND OTHER COASTAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING


                                           JAMES G. TITUS
                                    Office of Policy Analysis
                             U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                                      Washington, DC 20460




                This chapter focuses on strategies for responding to (1) inundation, erosion
           and flooding, and (2) saltwater intrusion.   As the previous chapters show, these
           are not the only problems from sea level rise, but they appear to be the most
           important.    Moreover, strategies that successfully addressed these problems
           would generally take care of the other problems as well.


           INUNDATION, EROSION, AND FLOODING

                The two fundamental responses to sea level rise are (1) holding back the sea
           and (2) allowing the shore to retreat.       Throughout history, both of these
           approaches have been applied. For two thousand years the Chinese, and for five
           hundred years the Dutch have protected low-lying areas with dikes.       In other
           areas of the world, countless coastal towns have been abandoned or moved as the
           coast eroded; the town of Dunwich (UK) has been steadily moving inland since the
           time of William the Conqueror, and has rebuilt its church seven times in the last
           seven centuries.

           Holding Back the Sea

                Strategies for holding back the sea fall broadly into two categories: dikes
           and other protective walls and raising the land surface.

           Dikes and Other Protective Walls

                The coastal engineering profession has developed a wide variety of
           structures to restrain the sea. To a large degree, the appropriate structure
           depends on whether inundation, erosion, or flooding is the more serious problem.
           Generally, dikes are used to protect areas from permanent inundation. To prevent
           leakage, dikes must be several times as wide as they are long. Thus, their costs
           include valuable coastal land and perhaps structures that must be abandoned for
           the dike, as well as the direct construction costs.



                                                  141









              Adaptive Options

                   In most cases, dikes have been built along (or parallel to but inland of)
              the existing shoreline.    However, the Dutch have often found it more economic
              to build a dike across the narrow part of a bay than around the entire shoreline;
              because in the former case the dike is much shorter.         Doing so can impede
              shipping, and it converts the upstream part of the estuary to a freshwater lake,
              which may have undesirable environmental impacts; on the other hand, it can help
              solve water supply problems, as we discuss below.

                   In addition to the wall, a means must be devised to remove water from the
              protected area. For hundreds of years, the Dutch relied on wind-driven pumps;
              electric and diesel pumps are more common today. For areas that are above low
              tide, it is possible to rely on gravity drainage by installing tidal gates that
              open during low tide to let out the water but close at other. times to prevent
              water entering.

                   Most of the same principals apply to protecting areas threatened by flooding
              but having sufficient elevation to avoid permanent inundation, but the relative
              importance of particular factors varies. An important difference is that the
              problems that discourage one from closing off an estuary permanently do not
              necessarily make it impractical to close it off temporarily.       Hence, Venice,
              London, Leningrad, and several Japanese cities are or will soon be protected by
              submersible tidal barriers that remain except during major storms.

                   Another important difference is that structures that would not prevent
              inundation may be able to stop flooding. Narrow walls would eventually leak if
              flooded all the time, but may be adequate for a flood that lasts a day or so.

                   The differences between flood- and inundation-protection strategies would
              be transitory.   Areas that require flood protection in the near term would
              require inundation protection in the long run. Thus, the design of any flood
              protection system should consider the eventual needs as sea level rises.          A
              concrete floodwall that is cheaper than a dike may not be a wise long-term
              investment if it will eventually have to be replaced with a dike. On the other
              hand, the designers of the Venice flood barrier have explicitly considered this
              issue; the barriers have been designed to eventually be retrofit with navigation
              locks should be necessary to keep them permanently closed.

                   Different structures may be necessary where waves and erosion are a problem.
              Breakwaters and many types of seawalls do not prevent flooding but provide
              important protection against by deflecting storm wave energy.      For preventing
              erosion of areas above sea level, bulkheads and revetments are common along
              calm-water areas, while seawalls, breakwaters, and rubble are used on the open
              coast.  In all of these cases, the principle is to prevent waves from attacking
              the shore by interposing an energy-absorbing structure.

                   One of the greatest advantages of protecting land with walls is that
              existing land uses need not be threatened, except for the areas taken up by the
              dikes.  Because they can be erected in a couple of decades, there is not need
              to erect such structures today if an area will not require protection for 50
              years.   This does not imply, however, that decision makers should delay

                                                     142











                                                                                      Titus

        consideration of responses to sea level rise. The cost and adverse environmental
        impacts of dikes suggests that this solution will not be appropriate everywhere;
        because the other options require a greater lead time, delay consideration of
        sea level rise could foreclose these options and leave future generations only
        with the option of building a dike.

        Raising Land Surfaces

             Land surfaces can be raised by (1) artificially transporting fill material
        from navigation channels, offshore, or land-based sources; (2) trapping sand as
        it moves along the shore; or (3) restoring or artificially enhancing natural land
        building processes.    The former practice is already commonplace along beach
        resorts throughout the world, and fill has been used to raise the land in areas
        experiencing rapid subsidence.

             An even older practice is the construction of groins to trap sand moving
        along the shore.     An important limitation of this approach is that erosion
        protection in one area is often at the expense of increased erosion elsewhere;
        hence groins are most appropriate for protecting developed areas that are
        adjacent to undeveloped areas where increased erosion would be acceptable.

             Restoration of natural processes could be applied to barrier islands, river
        deltas, and possibly, coral atolls.     The natural overwash process can enable
        barrier islands to keep pace with sea level by migrating landward. Although
        developed barrier islands do not migrate landward, an engineered retreat in which
        the bay sides are filled as the ocean side erodes would often be far less
        expensive than raising an island in place (Titus 1990).

             River deltas in the natural state can keep pace with sea level rise, at
        least up to a point.      However, dams and river dikes prevent sediment from
        reaching the Mississippi, Nile, Niger, and many other deltas (LWPP 1987; El Raey
        1990; The and Awosika 1990), and these deltas are currently losing land with even
        a slow rate of sea level rise. As a result, officials in the United States are
        developing numerous plans to restore deltaic processes by selectively dismantling
        dikes that cause the problem. As sea level rises, officials in other nations
        may choose to reevaluate whether the benefits of dams and dikes outweigh the cost
        of losing deltaic lands, although this will be difficult.       Nevertheless, the
        prospect of sea level rise provides a strong impetus for Bangladesh (Commonwealth
        1989) and other nations (Broadus et al. 1986) with deltas that still flood to
        avoid constructing dikes along the rivers.

             Many people suspect, but no one has established, that coral atolls islands
        can keep pace with at least a slowly rising sea. There is little doubt that the
        coral grows with the sea, but the fate of the islands is not as clear.         Some
        suggest that the islands are only created during periods of stable or falling
        sea level; others suggest that islands are created and destroyed with a slowly
        rising sea. But even if islands can not keep pace with sea level on their own,
        there is little doubt that protecting the surrounding reefs is important because
        they provide both protection from waves and a source of sand that could be
        artificially placed on the islands.

                                                143








             Adaptive Options


                  Raising land surfaces has many advantages over protective walls.            Most
             importantly, the character is the land remains largely unchanged, which can be
             important environmentally and aesthetically. In addition, this approach can be
             applied incrementally, as the sea rises.          Moreover, this approach can be
             implemented on a decentralized basis, in which property owners raise their own
             properties whenever they choose.      Nevertheless, some planning is necessary so
             that buildings do not end up below ground level; however, in many areas flood
             regulations already require buildings to be elevated 2-3 meters above the ground.
             Along San Francisco Bay, local authorities require all newly reclaimed land to
             be elevated an additional 30-50 centimeters to        account for future sea level
             rise.

             Retreating from the Shore

                  Abandonment of coastal settlements has occurred throughout. the ages, because
             people either lacked the means to hold back the sea or found -it more burdensome
             than rebuilding farther inland.       In the 20th century, a new rationale has
             emerged: environmental protection.      Particularly in Austral iia and the United
             States, many local officials are promoting policies to prevent development from
             blocking the landward migration of beaches and wetlands. Because buildings often
             last one hundred years and infrastructure can determine development patterns for
             centuries, planning a retreat requires much greater lead times than policies to
             hold back the sea.

                There are three ways to foster a retreat:        (1) limA development in areas
             likely to be flooded; (2) allow development subject to the requirement that it
             will eventually be removed     (oresumed mobility) and (3) do nothing about the
             problem today and eventually require developed areas to be abandoned.

             Limit Development

                  These efforts generally   involve either the purchase of land or regulations
             that restrict construction.    Buying coastal property and creating parks can be
             desireable even without sea    level rise, but it would be expensive to apply it
             on more than a limited scale.

                  Regulations that restrict construction save the public money, but in many
             countries it would be unconstitutional to prohibit development in every area
             likely to be flooded by sea level rise without compensation -- and even where
             it would be legal it would probably not be politically feasible. Nevertheless,
             it might be possible to implement this approach for areas likely to be flooded
             in the next few decades.     Several states in the U.S. and Australia (?VERIFY)
             already require construction to be set back from the shore a distance equal to
             30-60 years of annual erosion (assuming current sea level trends), and along the
             Chesapeake Bay (USA), only one house per 8 hectares is permitted within 300
             meters of the shore. India prohibits new construction within 500 meters of the
             ocean coast. Coastal scientists in Nigeria, Argentina, and the United Kingdom
             are advocating setbacks for their nations as well.


                                                      144










                                                                                        Titus

               The chief disadvantages of this approach is that it says nothing about   areas
          that are already developed.        Moreover, it does not perform well         under
          uncertainty.   The restrictions have to be based on a particular amount of sea
          level rise, the uncertainty of which is exceeded only by the difference in
          opinion regarding how far into the future we should protect our descendants and
          the environment. If the sea rises less than anticipated, property is needlessly
          withdrawn from development; if it rises more than expected, the policy eventually
          fails. Moreover, even if there is an accurate projection, after the sea rises
          to that point the policy fails.     Finally, it is not always wise to prohibit
          construction of a waterfront building simply because it would eventually have
          to be abandoned.

          Presumed Mobility

               Unlike limiting development, these policies well under uncertainty and can
          be applied to areas that are already developed. Although they do not alter the
          ability of governments to control development in response to current concerns,
          they limit it s role in sea level rise to laying out the "rules of the game,"
          -- the need to eventually allow the sea to come in. Investors and real estate
          markets, which are accustomed to uncertainty, decide whether development should
          proceed given that constraint.

               The most widely discussed approaches to presumed mobility are (1)
          prohibiting private shore protection structures and (2) long-term and conditional
          leases. In the United States, Maine regulations explicitly state that bulkheads
          cannot be built to prevent natural systems from migrating inland; and the owners
          of large buildings that would interfere with wetlands and dunes given a one-
          meter rise must submit a demolition plan before starting construction. Several
          U.S. and Australian states limit bulkheads to protect wetlands.

               The greatest limitation with this approach is that there is a large risk of
          "backsliding," that is, that officials 50-100 years from now will be unable to
          resist pleas from property that it is unfair to protect the environment at the
          expense of their homes.

               Leases that expire at a particular date or whenever sea level rises a
          particular amount may be less vulnerable to backsliding, particularly in
          societies that take contractual obligations more seriously than government
          regulations.     Conversion   of ownership    to   leases would    often    require
          compensations, but with the effective date in the remote future, the present
          discounted value of the loss to the property owner -- and hence the fair
          compensation -- would be small.

               In the United States, coastal property is under long-term leases in many
          areas. Although conditional leases that expire when sea level rise a particular
          amount have not yet been implemented, the National Park Service has used
          conditional leases that expire under other conditions, such as the owner's death.

               The major drawback of presumed mobility is that it takes more political will
          to abandon an existing area than to block development of a vacant area. However,

                                                  145









             Adaptive Options

             if people agree to an eventual abandonment many decades in advance, political
             leaders can at least appeal to the need to live up to one's part of the bargain.

             Do Nothing Today

                  In cases where people will not have the money to hold back the sea anyway,
             it may be reasonable to face the problem later and do nothing today, particularly
             in areas where the population pressure is so great that the area would probably
             be developed even if abandonment was certain to be necessary.         However, this
             approach leaves open the risk that private and public organizations will make
             substantial investments in areas that must eventually be lost to the sea.

                  This approach is particularly unsuited to nations such as Australia and the
             United States, which would be likely to retreat for the sake of environmental
             protection.   In spite of the difficulties of planning an abandonment today,
             retreating later without a plan would be much more difficult. Deferring action
             simply implies that future politicians would, have to choose between more
             stringent versions of options that are politically infeasible today.             Land
             purchases would be even more expensive than today because more areas would       have
             been developed.   And the outcry that would result if people.were evicted        from
             their homes would be far worse than the reaction to prohibiting additional
             development.


             SALTWATER INTRUSION

                  As with responses to flooding and inundation, society can respond with
             either structural measures to counteract salinity increases, or by accepting and
             adapting to the landward penetration of saltwater. Many of the relevant measures
             have already been applied in response to droughts or increased consumption.

             Preventing Salinity Increases

                  Because salinity increases in the coastal zone result from either increases
             in seawater head (pressure) or from decreases in freshwater head, they can be
             counteracted by changing the head of either water body. Increasing freshwater
             pressure has been applied more often. These measures affect both human and
             ecological impacts from sea level rise.

             Increasing Freshwater Pressure

                  In the United States, dams have been constructed to protect water supplies
             by maintaining sufficient flows of freshwater into Delaware and San Francisco
             Bays.   Along the Mississippi River, structures are being built to divert
             freshwater into wetlands threatened by excessive salinity (caused by past river
             modifications that had blocked the flow of freshwater).

                  Planning for future saltwater intrusion may be warranted long before a
             crisis occurs.   For example, some water authorities release fresh water from
             reservoirs when salinity levels increase.       Sea level rise may require more

                                                     146











                                                                                          Titus

           reservoirs in the future. While there is no need to build those dams today, now
           is the time to identify the locations where they would be built if needed.
           Otherwise such sites may be developed for other uses precluding the options by
           which future generations can address the problem.

                Increased freshwater recharge has also been used to prevent salinity
           increases in groundwater. For example, although the large network of freshwater
           canals in southern Florida was designed to drain the land of surface water, some
           canals are now used to maintain pressure along the freshwater/saltwater interface
           of Biscayne aquifer. In the Netherlands, numerous man made freshwater lakes such
           as the Iselmer help to maintain freshwater pressure in the shallow aquifers.
           The Maldives is modifying roadways so that rainfall will seep into groundwater
           aquifers rather than run off or collect in puddles and evaporate.

           Decreasing Saltwater Pressure

                Barriers to saltwater penetration have been used less frequently.
           Nevertheless, during the drought of 1988, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
           designed a barrier across the bottom of the Mississippi River to prevent
           saltwater from penetrating upstream to New Orleans.     (Because freshwater floats
           on top of saltwater, the barrier prevents saltwater from encroaching without
           blocking the outward flow of freshwater.)      To curtail the loss of freshwater
           wetlands, gates and sluices are also used in Louisiana, to permit the outward
           flow of freshwater through wetlands during a falling tide, while preventing
           saltwater from invading when the tide is rising.         Groundwater can also be
           protected through the use of physical barriers, but this has rarely (never?) been
           done.

           Adapting to Salinity Increases

                In the absence of physical measures to prevent salinity increases, society
           can move intakes inland, shift to alternate supplies, decrease consumption, or
           use saltier water. On the other hand, aquatic species respond by moving upstream
           although, in some cases, habitat will be reduced because the upstream segments
           of the estuary are narrowed or polluted.

           Move Inland

                Sea level rise by itself does not decrease the amount of freshwater flowing
           into rivers and groundwater, it merely moves the interface of fresh and
           saltwater. Thus, relocating intakes and wells inland may be a viable response
           to sea level rise, just as moving development inland is a viable response to
           erosion and flooding.

           Shift to Alternate Supplies

                In some cases, it may be practical to develop a new source. Along the U.S.
           Atlantic coastal plain, many barrier islands have shifted to deeper aquifers as
           the unconfined aquifers became salty due to overpumping. Long ago, New York City
           realized that the Hudson river would not supply enough water and began taking

                                                   147









              Adaptive Options

              water from the Delaware River as well. Nevertheless, this option is becoming
              less viable as coastal communities frequently find that all available aquifers
              and rivers are being exploited already.

              Decrease Consumption

                   Decreased consumption can be viewed as a response to salinity increases or
              as a measure for preventing them, since less freshwater is withdrawn. The major
              premise behind conservation is that by avoiding non-essential uses, freshwater
              will be preserved for essential uses. Many major metropolitan areas have used
              regulations to curb outdoor (evaporative) consumption; officials in some regions
              are contemplating restrictions on withdrawals from groundwater for agriculture.

              Pump Saltier Water

                   Finally, consumers may simply draw saltier water and either send it to a
              desalination plant or tolerate saltier end use. While the United States, Canada,
              and Northern Europe generally take for granted that public water supplies are
              safe for drinking, much of the developing world and even some cities in the
              developed countries use municipal supplies for cleaning but drink only bottled
              water or rainwater stored in small tanks. For some industrial uses, it may be
              practical to tolerate salty water.


              RELATIONSHIP AMONG RESPONSES TO SALTWATER INTRUSION AND INUNDATION, EROSION AND
              FLOODING

                   Although the freshwater supply and shoreline retreat/flooding issues are
              conceptually very different, in some cases, the responses; will have to be
              considered in concert, largely because of the impact of shore protection
              strategies on water supplies.

                   Perhaps the most important interrelationship concerns the impact of levee
              and pumping systems on groundwater.     Freshwater floats atop. saltwater in a
              typical coastal aquifer. If an island or mainland area were -to be raised by the
              amount of sea level rise, the freshwater table will tend to rise as well.
              However, because land masses will not rise isostatically by an amount equivalent
              to global sea level rise, the area must instead be protected with levees, and
              it will be necessary to pump water out. Because the land surface will be below
              sea level, areas near the coast could lose the entire freshwater table.        For
              cities with alternate supplies, this may not be a major concern.        For more
              lightly developed areas, deltas, agricultural regions, and coral atolls, however,
              the potential loss of the freshwater table may be a critical concern.

                   The management of river deltas is another case where land protection and
              salinity control are interdependent, Diversion of rivers has reduced freshwater
              and sediment reaching many deltas, making them doubly vulnerable to sea level
              rise. Rediverting the flow of water through deltaic wetlands can help to restore
              the ability of the delta to keep pace with sea level, but perhaps at the expense
              of the water supply for the areas to which the water is currently diverted.

                                                     148











                                                                                       Titus


          INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF SEA LEVEL RISE WITH OTHER IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING


          Coastal Defense

              Sea level rise is likely to be the dominant impact of global warming
          requiring a coastal defense (or retreat) response. Although increased hurricane
          frequency would make areas more difficult to defend, even a doubling of hurricane
          frequency would have a smaller impact on beach erosion than a 30-centimeter rise
          in sea level, and the impact on sheltered shorelines would be relatively small.
          Changes in storm frequency could have important impacts on flooding in some
          areas, but the changes would have to be great to change substantially the basic
          strategy for responding to sea level rise.

          Water Supplies

              By contrast, changes in climate could completely dwarf the impact of sea
          level rise on water supplies. Unlike sea level rise, changes in climate could
          increase or decrease the amount of available freshwater (rather than merely
          shifting the fresh/saline interface inland).    If droughts become less severe,
          the response measures discussed above for sea level rise might not be necessary.
          On the other hand, if droughts became significantly more severe and precipitation
          generally decreased, some of the options might be ineffective.      For example,
          increased reservoir capacity would accomplish little if there was not enough
          rainfall to fill them; moving intake pipes upstream would not solve the problem
          if the total flow of freshwater into the river is less than the requirements of
          surrounding municipalities.


          INTEGRATED STRATEGIES

              Except for cases in which one particular response is the unequivocal choice,
          an integrated strategy must contain a decisionmaking process for deciding what
          options to implement when, where, and by whom, as well as an inventory of the
          response measures themselves.

              The goal of a response to sea level rise is to enable future generations to
          avoid adverse economic and environmental costs, without undertaking expenditures
          today that, in retrospect, would have accomplished more if allocated elsewhere.
          Because future climate change and sea level rise -- and to a large degree, even
          the impacts of various response options -- are uncertain, there is a risk that
          any action employed (as well as no action) will subsequently prove to have been
          ill-advised.

              Although it is desirable to minimize the risk of adverse consequences, such
          a goal can take many forms. For example, investors in common stocks generally
          seek to maximize the expected return, while bondholders seek to minimize the
          probability of a default. A public works official might be willing to take the
          chance that sea level rise will require modifications of a project, because the
          tradeoff is between an investment today and the possibility of a larger cost in


                                                 149









              Adaptive Options

              the future; on the other hand, an environmental official might not be willing
              to take the risk because once an ecosystem is lost it may not be possible to
              bring it back.

                   Strategies to address sea level rise can be either comprehensive or
              opportunistic.    Comprehensive strategies have been rare in coastal issues,
              because responsibility and authority tend to be distributed among many
              governmental bodies.    Moreover, comprehensive approaches require a complete
              picture of all the interrelationships of an issue.      The advantage of such an
              approach is that it guards against inconsistent approaches being implemented by
              various parties; the disadvantage is that the desire for consistency may prevent
              anything from getting done until there is a consensus of the need for action.

                   Opportunistic strategies simply assume that if an action is urgent and
              worthwhile,   it should be implemented.       In some cases, the benefits of
              implementing a measure outweigh the costs so  greatly that even a low probability
              of a significant rise in sea level justifies  implementation; in other cases, the
              costs may be great enough to justify action only if a large sea level rise is
              fairly well established.

                   These two approaches are not mutually    exclusive.   The! first step in any
              comprehensive response should be to survey    the possible impacts and responses
              and determine which are rational given a low probability of sea level rise, and
              which would require a higher probability to justify implementation. Of those
              that are justified with a low probability, one can then ask whether they would
              be rendered less effective if delayed.     If so, they satisfy the criteria for
              urgency and should be implemented as soon as possible.

                   To a large degree, decisions will be based on available information about
              the risks. However, large nations have the ability to improve this information
              by supporting efforts to more precisely forecast future trends in sea level.
              Such efforts include better climate models, monitoring sea level trends, and
              improved ocean and glacial process models. Any comprehensiVE! long-term strategy
              should realistically consider the opportunities for improving available
              information, and determine which decisions can be made with current information
              and which can be safely deferred.















                                                     150











          COASTAL ENGINEERING OPTIONS BY WHICH A HYPOTHETICAL
                  COMMUNITY MIGHT ADAPT TO CHANGING CLIMATE


                              JOAN POPE AND THOMAS A. CHISHOLM
                            Coastal Engineering Research Center
                          U.S. Army Waterways Experiment Station
                                    Vicksburg, Mississippi





         ABSTRACT

              Projected climate change scenarios suggest that both global sea level rise
         and changes in storm patterns will affect coastal processes, erosion, and
         flooding.    The functional and structural performance of existing coastal
         navigation, and of flood and erosion control projects and other coastal
         facilities and infrastructure, will be modified and most likely degraded as
         natural factors exceed the conditions for which the infrastructure and facilities
         were designed.

              Adaptive options are needed to modify      or maintain existing works. In
         addition, new projects should plan for a more   severe and evolving environment.
         Inlet relocation, changed dredging practices,   incorporation of sand management
         techniques, and structural modification are potential adaptive options for
         coastal navigation projects.      The effectiveness of existing flood control
         projects -- such as sea walls, surge barrier gates, dune fields, and levees/dikes
         -- and of the routing of storm surge waters will be reduced, and new food-control
         projects will be required in response to sea level rise and storm-induced
         flooding.   There will be increased pressure for coastal armoring and dune
         construction. Many "hard" (e.g., revetments, seawalls, groins, breakwaters) and
         "soft" (e.g., beach fill) erosion control devices will have reduced effectiveness
         and higher maintenance requirements. Increased erosion rates will promote more
         public interest in beach renourishment.         However, the effectiveness of
         unprotected beach fills will decrease, suggesting that combinations of hard and
         soft approaches may be the only cost-effective solution.      An array of coastal
         engineering options is reviewed as applicable in response to the various site-
         specific impacts associated with global climate change.


         INTRODUCTION

              Global climate models imply that the greenhouse effect will cause the
         world's coastal environment and communities to experience significant impacts

                                                151








            Adaptive Options

            over the next century.    Many cultural, commercial, and recreational resources
            are endangered by both sea level rise and changes in storm patterns. Although
            the level of impact is difficult to quantify, it is appropriate to review the
            adaptive options that are current engineering practices and explore other more
            innovative concepts. In addition, long-term coastal management strategies need
            to be developed, and research needs to be conducted to better define the impacts
            of global climate change and to develop responses.

                 The projected impacts of global climate change to the coast include a
            eustatic sea level rise of 0.5 to 1.5 meters by the year 2100 due to melting of
            the polar ice caps (National Research Council, 1987).          In addition, global
            warming implies a rise in the average sea surface temperature of 2 to 4*C (World
            Meteorological Association, 1986). It has been hypothesized that this warming
            will lead to changes in the world's tropical storm patterns. Hurricane seasons
            are likely to be longer, with an increased occurrence of higher- i ntensi ty storms
            and more storms in higher latitudes. For coastal areas, this may mean more and
            higher storm surges accompanied by higher waves.         Current coastal land-use
            practices and protective structures are at risk as coastal processes are
            modified, causing accelerated shoreline erosion and more frequent and severe
            coastal flooding.


            IMPACTS ON COASTAL PROJECTS

                 Coastal wave theory demonstrates that higher sea level and higher storm
            surges mean larger waves will reach coastal           structures and unprotected
            shorelines. Waves will exceed the design conditions of existing protective works
            and infrastructure, and new projects will need to consider more severe
            conditions.    Erosion rates will increase and there will be more frequent and
            severe flooding of coastal lands and estuaries, higher waves in "protected"
            navigation channels and mooring areas, and reduced efficiencies for existing
            seawalls and revetments. Beaches will narrow and dune fields will be breached.
            Because estuaries will be wider, tidal prisms will increase; this process can
            lead to channel scour (endangering structures), stronger currents, development
            of multiple inlet systems, and faster rates of inlet migration toward land.
            Therefore, impacts to coastal navigation may include changes in channel shoaling
            and scour patterns, reduced durability of structures, shifts in inlet dimensions
            and locations, reduced channel and harbor navigability, and -increased damages
            in mooring areas.

                 Erosion rates will increase and many of the "hard" (e.g., revetments,
            seawalls, groin fields, breakwaters) and "soft" (e.g., beach fill) erosion
            control devices be less effective and will require more maintenance. Toe scour
            and higher inshore waves can damage seawalls and revetments. Groin fields and
            detached breakwaters may experience increased structural damagE!, and become less
            effective in retaining the desired beach widths.

                 Other coastal facilities and infrastructure may also experience impacts.
            Cross-sectional change at inlets may cause scour around the pilings of bridges
            and damages where the bridges connect to land. Shoreline recession can endanger
            coastal roads and facilities such as septic systems, buildings, and utilities.

                                                    152








                                                                                Pope and Chisho7m

            Increased rates of alongshore (sediment) transport can shoal the intakes for
            power pl ants.    Damages to docks and wharves will increase as higher waves
            propagate farther into the harbor.


            THE SCENARIO OF RISING SEA

                 There are many international examples of the variety of impacts we can
            expect global climate change to cause on the world's coastal areas. Although
            caused by other factors, the subsidence of Venice and the Louisiana coastal
            plain, the dramatic erosion of the Nile delta, the land reclamation efforts in
            the Netherlands and Germany, the 15-year high-water-level cycle in the Great
            Lakes (1972-1986), and the recent Hurricane Hugo all contribute to our
            understanding of what sea level rise and increased tropical storm activity can
            mean.

                 Many great cities are at risk from a change in the world's climate.
            However, to illustrate the quantitative level of impact that communities are
            likely to experience, we use a fictional coastal area, which we call the town
            of Rising Sea (Figure 1). The magnitude of impacts to this coastal community
            were computed for a rise in mean sea level or storm tides or increased storm
            surges of 0.3, 0.6, and 0.9 m (Table 1). The effects of sea level rise on the
            Rising Sea area were calculated using the Automated Coastal Engineering System
            (ACES) package of computer programs developed at the Coastal Engineering Research
            Center (Leenknecht and Szuwalski, in press) and analytic methods presented in
            the Shore Protection Manual (SPM, 1984).

                 A rubble mound breakwater protects boats moored in the harbor. The harbor
            shore is a narrow beach backed by a revetment, which protects the town from
            flooding. South of the revetment is the city dock and a bridge over the south
            end of a tidal marsh.     The bridge leads to a resort community protected by a
            seawall. On the north side of the inlet is a natural beach and dune area.

                 The breakwater was designed to afford adequate protection for a stillwater
            depth of 4.6 m at the toe of the breakwater, which is a typical multiple-layer
            stone rubble mound structure. The armor stone was sized assuming that the waves
            reaching it were depth-limited to 3.6 m by the 4.6-m water depth at the toe.
            The calculated stable armor size is a 7.6-M stone. When hit by 3.6-m, 9-second
            waves, the breakwater transmits 0.8-m waves to the harbor.

                 The 0.8-m waves propagate across the harbor toward the revetment, inflicting
            minimal damage to the moored fleet. The 305-m-long revetment is 1.8 m from toe
            to crest and has a toe buri ed 0. 6 m bel ow grade. Under present des i gn sea 1 evel ,
            there is 0.6 m of water over the toe of the revetment. The 0.5-m depth-limited
            breaking wave requires a computed stone size of 18 kg. However, to prevent users
            of the area from possibly dislodging the stone, the revetment is made of a 45-
            kg stone, although there will be no overtopping.             Undoubtedly, the winds
            accompanying a design storm will blow considerable spray into the town.
            Fortunately, existing drainage systems can easily handle this water. The city
            docks are 0.9 m above mean sea level, and waves can pass under them without
            causing damage.

                                                      153








               Adaptive Options


                                                                     13EACIHFILL
                                                                     AND DUNE





                                                   USCG


                                                  43



                                                     REVETMENT
                                                                   BREAKWATER
                               CITY OF
                             RISING SEA                             DIKE


                                                     CITY
                                                    DOCKS
                                                                 SEAWALL
                                                   13RIDGE





                                                                 DIKE









               Figure 1. Fictional coastal setting and the   community of Rising Sea.


                   A 0.3-m sea level rise will result in 4.9 m of water at the breakwater toe.
               A depth-1 imi ted wave of 3.8 m wi 11 now af fect the breakwater. Stabl e armor stone
               size requirements are now 9.1 M, rather than 7.6 M.    The loss of rubble mound
               reduces the structure's height as armor stone is displaced. If the breakwater
               does not lose crest elevation, the transmitted wave will be 1.1 m, but if it
               fails only 0.2 m, the transmitted wave will be 1.3 m, and will increase damage
               to the moored fleet. The revetment now has 0.9 m of water on it and is subjected
               to a 0.7-m breaking wave, which requires a 61-kg rock. Assuming the structure
               survives with no major damage, 0.0024 cubic meters per second of water is
               delivered to the town center by overtopping. For the 305-m waterfront, this is
               2,700 cubic meters per hour, which may tax the existing drainage system. Wave
               crests will be about even with the pier deck and will start to cause damage.

                   For the scenarios of 0.6- and 0.9-m sea level rise, the situation becomes
               progressively worse.    With a 0.9-m rise, there is 5.5 m of water on the
               breakwater toe, and a proper design would require 13.2 M stone for the resulting

                                                     154







                                                                            Pope and Chisholm

                     Table 1. Effect of Sea Level Rise on City of Rising Sea


          Sea Level Rise                  0        +0.3         +0.6       +0.9 m



          Breakwater

            Depth limit wave          3.57         3.78         4.02       4.27 m
            Armor stone size          7.62         9.07        10.98     13.15 M
            Transmitted wave          0.85         1.10         1.34       1.71 m
            Settlement                             0.15         0.30       0.61 m
            Transmitted wave                       1.28         1.59       1.95 m
            After settlement


          Revetment

            Depth limit wave          0.49         0.70         0.94       1.19 m
            Armor stone size             18           61          145      282 kg
            Overtopping   (M3/S)          0      0.0024        0.035          0.14
            hectare m per hr              0        0.27         3.91         15.54
              per 303 m revetment

          Docks

            Wave crest height         0.61         1.16         1.77       2.46 m

          Tidal Prism

            Upriver of bridge       70,792       82,544       95,145   108,595 m 3

          Seawall

            Wave impact force           429          617          846    1083 N/m



          4.3-m breaking wave. The 7.6 M stone used     in the original construction is only
          a little over half the required weight and would be easily dislodged by wave
          forces.   An estimated 0.6 m of crest loss or 20% damage to the breakwater may
          be optimistic. Boats would no longer be safe at their moorings in the resultant
          2-m seas. Since wave energy is proportional to the height squared, the 2-m wave
          would have almost 5-1/2 times the energy of the 0.8-m wave.         If given notice,
          the fleet would head for a safer port.     In these situations, people often leave
          too late, resulting in loss of lives and boats.           The revetment, which is
          constructed of 45-kg stone, would be severely underdesigned, with the 1.2-m
          breaking wave requiring a 282-kg stone. In the unlikely event the revetment did
          not fail, the town would receive 155,000 cubic meters of water per hour, which
          would result in extensive flooding. If the revetment did fail the flooding would
          be much worse.    The docks would most likely be destroyed by wave crests over
          1.5 m above the pier decks and by excessive forces on the pilings. Depth-limited

                                                   155








               Adaptive Options

               wave forces on the seawall, as calculated by the Minikin formula, would be over
               twice what they would be before the 0.9 m of sea level rise.      Overtopping for
               the town revetment and flooding near the seawall would be severe.

                   The marsh south of the bridge was 150 m by 300 m before sea level rise.
               If the land adjacent to the marsh slopes upward at 1:30 on the east and west
               sides and 1:100 on the south side, the water surface and thus the tidal prism
               will increase as sea level rises.      This could result in increased current
               velocities and sediment movement. In this case, the channel under the bridge
               was 4.6 m wide and 1.8 m deep before sea level rise. The rise in sea level would
               increase the cross-sectional area of the channel as the tidal prism increased.
               With the expected 16% increase in cross-sectional area, there would probably not
               be any significant scour around the bridge pilings for this bridge located in
               the back of the estuary, a small comfort compared to all the other calamities
               this community would face.


               ADAPTIVE OPTIONS

                   Coastal response options for the impacts of global climate change fall into
               three main categories: retreat, soft structures, and hard structures. Retreat
               is primarily a planning approach, which involves manipulating human activities
               rather than the natural environment. Soft or "dynamic" structures attempt to
               modify the natural processes through management of the physical system and
               maintenance practices. Hard or "static" structures involve the construction of
               some permanent devices. Hard structures tend to represent the more traditional
               coastal engineering approach. Table 2 summarizes the range of coastal response
               adaptive options, including some new and relatively untried approaches.

                   Retreat options summarized in Table 2 include not only abandonment but also
               the concept of restricted development and government -control led land use.
               Through zoning practices, local communities can gradually influence the
               complexion of a coastal development. Strong zoning codes may force an area to
               be abandoned gradually or to migrate inland (roll-over communities).         Flood
               insurance programs that allow for rebuilding of damaged properties or
               unrestricted zoning may promote       a laissez-faire development,       prompting
               significant government investment in the construction of protective works.
               Retreat may be an adaptive option for currently semi-developed or planned
               developments, but there are many coastal communities where the human and
               financial commitment is so great that retreat is not feasible.

                   Soft options listed in Table 2 include sediment transport and hydraulic
               flow management procedures, which rely on maintenance and operation practices
               to manipulate the natural environment. The rebuilding of beaches and dunes using
               sandy material from inland or offshore sources is a fairly traditional practice.
               Other, more innovative sources of material to rebuild or maintain the beach and
               dune system include the bypassing of sand from around inlets to maintain the
               natural longshore sediment supply (Dean, 1988), the scraping of the offshore
               portion of the active profile after a significant storm to enhance the natural
               -beach response (e.g., South Carolina after Hurricane Hugo), and the placement

                                                      156








                                                                          Pope and Chisholm

                            Table 2. Coastal Engineering Adaptive Options


                              Option                   Approach/structure


                        Retreat options                Abandon to nature
                                                       Limit development
                                                       Laissez faire
                                                       Roll-over communities
                                                       Evacuation routes

                        Soft options                   Beach fill
                                                       Dunes
                                                       Beach scraping
                                                       Nearshore berms
                                                       Dredging
                                                       Sand bypassing
                                                       Vegetative plantings
                                                       Channel relocation
                                                       Hydraulic modification

                        Hard options                   Flood gates
                                                       Dikes
                                                       Levees
                                                       Seawalls
                                                       Bulkheads
                                                       Revetments
                                                       Breakwaters
                                                       Jetties
                                                       Groins
                                                       Detached breakwaters
                                                       Sediment weirs
                                                       Perched beaches
                                                       Floating breakwaters



            of sandy dredged material on the offshore portion of the profile in the form of
            an underwater berm or bar (McLellan, in press). The use of dredged material to
            maintain wetlands is also a realistic option. Vegetative plantings can be used
            to help stabilize dunes, protect the shores in relatively quiet waters, and trap
            sediments to enhance wetland development.

                A highly promising soft approach for adapting to climate change may be to
            modify the hydraulic processes of the inlet and estuary system based on an
            improved understanding of the development and exchange of the tidal prism. Such
            activities could include modifying the exchange cross-section and location
            between the estuary and the sea via inlet opening and closing, and channel
            relocation. In addition, it may be feasible to control the tidal prism volume

                                                  157








             Adaptive Options

             and distribution via wetland enhancement, dikes, and modification of flow
             patterns.   However, these approaches require a greater understanding of the
             relationship between wetland flow, tidal hydraulics, inlet processes, and the
             behavior of multiple inlet systems.

                  Hard options listed in Table 2 include structures used in navigation, flood
             control, and beach erosion control projects. Seawalls, bulkheads, revetments,
             levees, and dikes that attempt to "draw a line," stopping shoreline recession
             and limiting flooding. The construction of a wide-toe berm can help extend the
             life of these structures. However, as sea level rises and the offshore profile
             steepens, these structures must be enlarged or abandoned and replaced by new more
             landward structures. Navigation structures such as breakwaters and jetties can
             also be modified via higher crests, larger armor stone, or additional length to
             reduce damage to the structure and improve the navigability of the harbor. In
             cases where channel    scour has over-steepened the toe of the structure,
             threatening the structure's stability, stone aprons, training dikes, or coarse-
             grained material in filling have been successfully used.

                  Several structural options are designed to trap the littoral sediment and
             enhance the inshore.    These include groins, which block the longshore moving
             material; perched beaches, which capture the onshore transported material; and
             sediment weirs, which are used mainly at inlets as part of navigation projects.
             Some breakwater-type structures attenuate the wave energy, causing an inshore
             wave sheltering.   Floating breakwaters have   been incorporated into navigation
             projects to reduce wave action within the      harbor (Hales, 1981).     Detached,
             permeable, and headland breakwaters have been used to maintain a beach width and
             profile along receding shores (Pope and Dean   1986, Pope 1989).

                  For most situations, a combination of     hard, soft, and retreat adaptive
             options will be needed. Limited development    enhanced by beach scraping or the
             placement of dredged material in a nearshore berm; rehabilitation of navigational
             structures, accompanied by sediment bypassing; and the construction of
             breakwaters to ensure longer residence for beach fill operations are proven
             combination activities that could be used in response to a rise in sea level or
             increased storm severity. Each situation will be different, and the appropriate
             adaptive option will need to be carefully considered.


             SUMMARY

                  Adaptive options to potential sea level rise include relocating inlets,
             modifying dredging practices, incorporating sand management techniques, and
             structurally modifying navigational systems. There will be increased pressure
             for coastal armoring in response to coastal erosion. At existing project sites,
             structural modification, supplemental works, or coastal evacuation routes may
             be appropriate options.     Increased erosion rates will promote more public
             interest in beach renourishment. However, the effectiveness of unprotected beach
             fills will decrease over time, suggesting that combinations of hard and soft
             approaches may be the only cost-effective solutions.


                                                    158









                                                                                  Pope and Chisholm

                  Our fictional coastal town of Rising Sea could adapt to the impacts
              associated with global climate change by modifying existing works and installing
              of new works. The town could use "band-aid" approaches and simply treat the local
              problem as it evolves, putting in heavier armor stone and increasing structure
              heights on an as-needed basis.       However, the financial commitment with this
              approach will escalate rapidly, and the local quality of life could deteriorate.
              Or the town could evaluate and project the nature of the process and problem and
              develop long-term alternative options, such as an advance measure maintenance
              and operation strategy. In the end, the community might develop a multi-action
              plan that incorporates the assistance of the federal and state governments and
              private industry. Dredging practices could be modified to recycle material onto
              the beaches and inshore, several developed zones could be converted into
              undeveloped public access areas, mooring patterns could be changed and an
              interior structure added for additional protection, wetland enhancement programs
              could be developed, some existing structures could be modified, and the drainage
              system could be upgraded.      Through the development of a long-term policy and
              coastal management plan that is based both on a clear understanding of the
              process and impacts of sea level rise and on an evaluation of all the rational
              response options, the town of Rising Sea may make it into 22nd century.


              BIBLIOGRAPHY

              Dean, R.G.   1988.   Sediment interaction at modified coastal inlets: processes
              and policies. In: Hydrodynamics and Sediment Dynamics of Tidal Inlets, D. G.
              Aubrey and L. Weisher eds. New York: Springer-Verlag.

              Hales, L.Z.    1981.   Floating breakwaters: state-of-the-art literature review.
              CERC-Technical Report 81-1.        Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineers, Coastal
              Engineering Research Center, Waterways Experiment Station, 279 p.

              Leenknecht, D.A., and A. Szuwalski. 1990. Automated Coastal Engineering System
              Technical Reference, Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineers, Coastal Engineering
              Research Center, Waterways Experiment Station. In press.

              McLellan, T.N.    1990.   Rationale for the design of mound structures.          Journal
              of Coastal Research (specialty issue). In press.

              National Research Council.         1987.    Responding to changes in sea level,
              engineering implications.     iCommittee on Engineering Implications of Changes in
              Relative Mean Sea Level, Marine Board. Washington, DC: National Academy Press,
              148 p.

              Pope, J., and J.L. Dean.      1986.   Development of design criteria for segmented
              breakwaters. Proceedings of the Twentieth Coastal Engineering Conference. New
              York: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 2144-2158.





                                                        159









              Adaptive Options

              Pope, J.    1989.   Role of breakwaters in beach erosion control .         In:    Beach
              Preservation Technology '89; Strategies and Alternatives in Erosion Control, L.
              S. Tait, ed. Tallahassee, FL: Florida Shore and Beach Preservation Association,
              Inc., pp. 167-176.

              SPM. 1984. Shore Protection Manual, U.S. Army Engineers, Coastal Engineering
              Research Center, Waterways Experiment Station. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Government
              Printing Office.

              World Meteorological Association. 1986. Report of International Conference on
              Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gasses in Climate
              Variations and Associated Impacts. Reference 661. Geneva: World Meteorological
              Association, pp. 1-4.





































                                                        160










                       THE ROLE OF COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT IN
                                   SEA LEVEL RISE RESPONSE



                                           MARCELLA JANSEN
                       Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management
                       National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                                    U.S. Department of Commerce
                                            Washington, DC





            ABSTRACT

                 Successful adaptation to the effects of sea level rise will require a
            comprehensive approach to the management of the affected coastal area and its
            resources. A nation's response to sea level rise is likely to be a combination
            of structural and nonstructural responses.

                 Nonstructural adaptive responses are likely to be the most economic approach
            to sea level rise in most areas, particularly those with low population density
            and minimal infrastructure investment. Nonstructural adaptive responses to sea
            level rise can have other values, such as resource protection, which can mitigate
            the uncertainty facing policy makers and planners. The success of nonstructural
            adaptive responses will require the cooperation of the affected populations.
            This cooperation can best be achieved through education, resulting in.increased
            public awareness of the problem and the potential solutions and their
            accompanying costs, and early involvement in the decision-making process.


            INTRODUCTION

                 The potential rise in sea level resulting from global warming will present
            coastal nations with a myriad of problems, and will require governments, the
            private sector, and coastal residents to make some very difficult choices. In
            responding to the lots of existing land and resources, policymakers will have
            to balance competing demands for resources and preserve existing social and
            cultural values, without overtaxing the national economy. Any significant rise
            in sea level will require consideration of both the impacts of a given policy
            choice on diverse resources, and the interrelationship of those resources and
            those choices.

                 Any successful response to sea level rise will need to rely on a
            comprehensive approach to the management of coastal areas: comprehensive in terms
            of both viewing the coast as a whole and taking into account all of the impacts

                                                   161









               Adaptive Options

               of any chosen response option. (For an opposing viewpoint, see the paper in this
               section by Titus.)


               IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

                    Rising sea level will inundate low-lying lands immediately adjacent to the
               coast as well as lands along rivers flowing into the sea. Beach areas will be
               eroded, and existing wetlands will be submerged. Shorelands consisting of cliffs
               and bluffs are likely to experience increased erosion and undermining, resulting
               in the collapse of the-bluffs. The configuration of the coastal lands may also
               change (e.g., through new inlet formation) owing to changing physical forces.

               Sedimentation and Increasing Salinity

                    Changing land forms and water volumes caused by sea level rise will alter
               coastal water movements and resulting sedimentation patterns. Estuarine areas
               and rivers flowing into the coast will experience increased salinity. Coastal
               aquifers will experience increased saltwater intrusion from rising seas and
               possible loss of freshwater recharge areas as a result of the coastal inundation.

               Loss of Wetlands and Breeding Sites

                    The alteration of the coastal shorelands will also significantly affect
               the living resources that dwell in these areas or that depend on resident
               species. The potential loss of beach areas for breeding sites for turtles and
               some shorebirds could be the final blow for many species already endangered or
               severely stressed. The impact of the loss of wetlands, which are critical to
               the life cycle of many fish species of importance to human as a food source, will
               be seen in reduced fishing harvests.

               Residential and Commercial Losses

                    Residential and commercial'development immediately along the coast may be
               threatened by inundation and may be susceptible to increased damages from the
               more frequent and severe coastal storms. These changes may present particular
               problems for some industries.    For example, coastal electricity-generating or
               industrial facilities that depend on fresh riverine waters for cooling or
               manufacturing processes will face abandonment of operations or 'retooling to use
               now brackish waters.   As mentioned before, port operations will also require
               adjustment to the changing physical conditions.       The limitations on fresh
               groundwater caused by saltwater intrusion may serve as a limiting factor for all
               forms of future land development.

               Other Losses

                    Uses such as recreation, tourism, and fishing, which are important to the
               social, cultural, and economic well-being of coastal communities, also will be
               affected by the physical changes to the beaches and wetlands.


                                                      162










                                                                                         Jansen


           RESPONSES TO SEA LEVEL RISE

                 Three basic management approaches can be taken in response to sea level
           rise: (1) do nothing and suffer the consequences; (2) resist the rising waters
           through various forms of hard and soft structures; or (3) gradually retreat.
           The choice of which to do in any given circumstance will depend on a number of
           factors  including the following:

                 ï¿½  the magnitude and rate of sea level rise;
                 ï¿½  the geology and elevation of coastal land;
                 ï¿½  the value and importance of the particular resource both to its owner
                    and to the economic, physical, and social health of the nation;
                 ï¿½  the likelihood that a particular response would be successful;
                 ï¿½  the availability of viable alternatives;
                 ï¿½  the costs -- including economic, environmental, social, cultural, and
                    safety -- of the chosen response.

           Structural Response

                 While a structural response to sea level rise is almost always possible,
           it may not always be reasonable, given the economic costs involved or the adverse
           environmental impacts.     For example, bulkheads eventually cause the loss of
           natural shorelines, which can hurt recreation, tourism, and environmental quality
           (see the section on Environmental Implications of Response Strategies).
           Moreover, hard structures can foreclose the retreat option (such as allowing the
           migration of wetlands or barrier islands) and can commit a coastal area to an
           expensive course of resistance. Nevertheless, hard structures will most likely
           be the chosen response for major population centers, industrial complexes, ports,
           and in some nations, agricultural land as well.

           Nonstructural Responses

                 The following is a brief discussion of some possible non-structural
           responses in light of some of the more readily apparent impacts of rising sea
           level.

           Abandonment of High-Risk Areas and Relocation of Coastal Structures

                 In the face of coastal inundation and increasing erosion, existing
           structures can be abandoned or moved. Erosion and inundation of coastal lands
           are a constant process along the coasts of many countries.        Even without the
           prospect of a significant rise in sea level, coastal structures and populations
           are vulnerable to natural storm and erosion processes.        The impacts of these
           storms and erosion are costly to the individuals involved as well as national
           economies. Therefore, relocation of populations from areas susceptible to these
           natural hazards can benefit a nation, even if the extent of water rise from
           global warming is less than is currently projected. In addition to reducing the
           vulnerability of people and property at risk, relocation of coastal structures
           can have other benefits, such as the preservation of natural areas like wetlands
           and their beneficial value for fisheries, water quality, and storm protection.

                                                   163








              Adaptive Options

              Gradual Retreat

                   In areas with small populations and little investment, retreat in the face
              of rising waters may be the most effective and economic response to sea level
              rise. This is particularly true when retreat is viewed as a long term process
              that can be implemented as part of a program of land use control, and with the
              recognition of the other benefits associated with these land use decisions.
              Among these benefits'are protection of coastal resources and the uses that are
              based on them. Retreat can also be seen as a way of mitigating the extent and
              cost of eventually maintaining and rebuilding hard structures.

                   In many areas, the value of a gradual retreat from the shoreline has been
              recognized, and several mechanisms for implementing that choice are being tried.
              In the United States, approximately one-third of coastal states require new
              structures to be set back from the shore.      The State of South Carolina, for
              ,example, requires houses to be inland of the primary sand dune (where the primary
              sand dune would be if the coastline had not been altered), a distance equal to
              40 times the long-term annual erosion rate.       This determination reflects an
              attempt to protect coastal construction through its projected effective life.
              The Beach Management Act also places severe restrictions on armoring the
              coastline.and on rebuilding structures damaged by storms or chronic erosion.

              Landward Migration of Wetlands

                   Given a gradual rise in sea level, wetl   and areas can retreat.      However,
              this retreat will be possible only if inland areas do not contain barriers such
              as manmade structures, and if sediment flows to these areas are not interrupted.
              The decisions to allow landward migration of wetland areas to protect their
              ecological values will require modification of human activities to respond to
              these concerns.



              THE MECHANISMS OF RETREAT

                   In choosing retreat, one will seek to gradually relocate the existing
              population at risk to other areas, and to establish programs to prevent
              population increases in areas at risk.        Incentives can be established to
              encourage affected populations to relocate elsewhere. For example, industry can
              be encouraged to locate in safe areas through the provision of special tax
              incentives for relocation and subsequent preferential hiring to individuals from
              the areas impacted by the sea level rise.

                   Another approach would be to establish as national policy. that areas likely
              to be at risk in the future should be used for economic activities that do not
              require major investments for infrastructure or whose loss will have minimal
              social and economic impacts.    For example, areas immediately adjacent to the
              coast can be made primary areas for parks and other recreation that involve
              little investment. Agriculture or silviculture uses could be emphasized in areas
              that are still able to support these uses, but that are known to be susceptible
              to inundation in the 25- to 50-year period.

                                                     164










                                                                                       Jansen

                 Allocation of increasingly limited safe oceanfront areas will also need to
           give priority consideration to coastal -dependent uses that cannot readily be
           located elsewhere (e.g., fisheries).

                 Negative incentives to encourage existing populations to relocate and to
           discourage new settlement in threatened areas can be based on public policies
           to limit economic loss to the country as a whole by refusing to make new public
           investment in infrastructure in areas at risk, and to not repair, replace, or
           improve infrastructure damaged by sea level rise or by coastal storms.


           IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RETREAT OPTION

                 Basic to the adoption of any retreat option will be an understanding of
           the existing coastline, its vulnerability to sea level rise, and the existing
           use of these areas. An assessment of vulnerability also needs to be placed in
           a time frame to make planning realistic while not unnecessarily foreclosing
           options for development.

                 Limitations on freshwater will be a significant determinant of the type
           and extent of coastal development.    A number of strategies can be implemented
           to deal with the damage to coastal aquifers:

                 ï¿½  reduction   in  consumption   either through    regulation  or pricing
                    structures;

                 ï¿½  construction of additional reservoirs or development of procedures for
                    interbasin water transfers (these two options have the disadvantage of
                    being costly, of having significant environmental impacts, and of
                    transferring a significant burden of the support of coastal development
                    to inland areas); and

                 ï¿½  desalinization and innovative methods for recycling wastewaters (the
                    latter option could have the additional benefit of enhancing the
                    protection of coastal water quality).

                 Unlike holding back the sea, which primarily involves the decision to commit
           the economic resources to undertake the activity, the implementation of a retreat
           option will require broad support among the affected populations.      To achieve
           this support, individuals and private-sector representatives in the affected
           areas should be involved early in the decisionmaking process.       Part of this
           involvement must be an intensive education program directed toward increasing
           the general understanding of the extent and impact of sea level rise, and the
           possible response options and their impacts.     Another mechanism for achieving
           cooperation is technical assistance in the planning for uses and structures in
           the coastal area.      Sea level rise should required to be considered in
           infrastructure development and land use planning.




                                                  165








            Adaptive Options

                 Once a decision is made to retreat, it will be necessary to clearly define
            the role of each level of government and the private sector in the retreat plan.
            While the national government most likely will be responsible for the broad
            policy decisions, actual implementation or enforcement of the retreat plan may
            best be done at the lowest level of government with enforcement authority. The
            advantage of concentrating implementation at the local level is that this level
            is closest to the problem and the population affected, and, therefore, is more
            likely to be effective at persuasion as well as enforcement.      Because of the
            inherent problems with enforcement, there should be some governmental override
            to ensure national strategy implementation.






































                                                   166











                   A WORLDWIDE OVERVIEW OF HEAR-FUTURE DREDGING
                         PROJECTS PLANNED IN THE COASTAL ZONE



                                  ROBBERT MISDORP and RIEN BOEIJE
                              Ministry of Transport and Public Works
                                        Tidal Waters Division
                                             Koningsaade 4
                                     The Hague, The Netherlands






             INTRODUCTION

                  One of the goals of the Coastal Zone Management Subcommittee of the IPCC
             Response Strategy Working Group is "to provide information and recommendations
             to national and international policy centers, enabling decision making on coastal
             zone management strategies for the next 10-20 years" (IPCC-PLANNED-CZM Meeting,
             Geneva, May 9, 1989). Raising the level of awareness about the possible impacts
             of sea level rise and changes in storm frequencies/intensities on projects
             planned in the coastal areas of the world is therefore considered to be an IPCC-
             PLANNED task.

                  The land-use projects planned in the coastal          zones include harbor
             construction, land reclamation, and urbanization, with lifetimes of 50-200 years.
             Such civil engineering projects generally attract other large-scale investments
             and lead to further exploitation of the coastal zone (for example, an increase
             in the number of fisheries and in tourism, other commercial activities, and
             groundwater and oil/gas extractions). This large increase of capital investment
             and gross domestic production in the coastal zones will have to be safeguarded
             in the future.

                  Careful technical and economic studies carried out during the planning
             phase of specific coastal zone projects might reveal that extra spending now,
             in anticipation of climate change, will pay off in the future.

                  Additional funds might be expended for the following response measures:
             additional coastal defense; shifting of project locations to higher ground,
             farther away from the present coastline; incorporating into construction plans
             the extra space needed to accommodate sea level rise (in the case of harbour
             planning, providing extra space for roll -on/roll -off operations, cargo flow, and
             port management activities).



                                                    167










              Problem Identification

                   Before such response measures can be implemented, two conditions must be
              met:

                   1. Local, national, and international policy makers and coastal management
                       organizations must acknowledge the importance of long-term planning; and

                   2. The IPCC must agree on scenarios of sea level rise and storm changes.

                   In general, coastal engineering development is characterized by three types
              of activities, which are accomplished in the following order:        1) dredging
              activities; 2) construction of harbour quays and docks, and preparation for
              urbanization and land reclamation; and 3) construction  of harbor installations,
              cities, industrial areas and other infrastructure.      Major civil engineering
              projects in the coastal areas are usually accompanied by dredging activities.
              The economic value of the dredging activities is, to a  large extent, indicative
              of the cost of the subsequent projects to be executed.  To better understand the
              nature and extent of the human activities anticipated   in the coastal zones and
              the magnitude of the associated future capital investments, a global inventory
              of future dredging projects was undertaken.


              METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

                   To obtain data on near-future dredging projects planned in coastal areas,
              the authors consulted the world's largest dredging company, which is based in
              the Netherlands and has a worldwide network of agencies and long-term experience.
              Only projects having work valued at $20 million or more (U.S. dollars) were
              considered. These near-future dredging projects (scheduled to occur between now
              and 5 years from now) were grouped into four categories:

                   1. coastal protection;

                   2. port extension/construction;

                   3. industrial land reclamation; and

                   4. urbanization.

                   Each dredging project was determined to be in one of four different stages:
              prospective, budgeted, pending, and executed.


              RESULTS OF THE NEAR-FUTURE DREDGING PROJECT INVENTORY

                   This inventory covers 62 near-future dredging projects located in 36 coastal
              countries (Figure 1) The worldwide coverage of near-future dredging projects
              is about 85%, excluding the U.S. and U.S.S.R. dredging activities. The total
              value of the 62 dredging projects is about $4 billion (U.S. dollars). Dredging
              projects whose budgets are smaller than $20 million constitute about another $4
              billion. Those small-scale dredging projects, although large in number, involve

                                                    168









                                                                         Misdorp and Boeije























           Figure 1. Locations of the major near-future dredging projects.


           much smaller capital investments. The preliminary results of a similar survey
           covering the dredging projects executed during the last five years reveal a
           total expenditure of about $3 billion.

               The percentage of capital allocated to these dredging projects.can be broken
           down by stage of project and by category:

                     Staqe        M.                   Category          M

                   prospective    60               coastal protection     20

                   budgeted       17               port extension/        30
                                                   construction

                   pending        10               industrial land        40
                                                   reclamation

                   executed       13               urbanization           10

                The dredging projects reviewed here are mainly planned  in combination with
           port extensions, urbanization, and land reclamation projects. Activities related
           exclusively to shore protection cover only 20% of the dredging projects
           considered in this inventory.

                                                 169







                         Problem Identification

                                       Figure 2 shows the regional distribution of the major dredging projects by
                         project stage and by category of dredging activity.

                                       Figure 3 shows the regional distribution of the total cost for these
                         dredging projects; 70% of the total will be spent in Asia and in the Arabian
                         Gulf States. The land-use projects (e.g., land reclamation and port extension)
                         are predominant in Asia.                                           In the Arabian Gulf States, the amount of capital
                         allocated or spent on port extension/construction, land reclamation, and
                         urbanization is more or less equal.

                                       As previously stated, dredging activities provide an indication of the
                         future level of capital investments in the coastal zone.                                                                                     Experience shows that
                         the capital investments in coastal areas are about 5 to 15 times the dredging
                         costs. This means that a rough estimate of the near-future capital investments
                         in the coastal zones of the world might range between $20 and $60 billion. Other
                         types           of         large-scale                      projects,                    such            as        capital-intensive,                                 near-future
                         agricultural projects, are not included here.

                                                   NEAR FUTURE MAJOR DREDGING PROJECTS WORLD WIDE
                regions                           COASTAL PROTECTION                                                        regions :                            LAND RECLAMATION
                             europe                                                                                                      eumw
                n.affwlca excl.USA                                                                                          n.amerlca exd.USA
                    south arnerica                                                                                              south arnedca
                medbr- (N)                                                                                                  maditarranean (N)
                niediternaanew is                                                                                           maditerranean (S)
                         West africa   El                                                                                             west afrlca
                         east africa                                                                                                  east africa
                           australia                                                                                                  australla
                         south asla    -7777777=                                                                                      south sale
                   soulh east asla                                                                                             south east sale
                         gulf states                                                                                                  gulf states
                                       0    100       200       300       400        SIX)     600       700       am                             0       100       2DO       300       400       Soo       600        700       am
                                                                        min $$                                                                                                       min $$
                                                        URBANISATION                                                                                              PORT EXTENSION

                             europe                                                                                                     europe
                n-amerka excl.USA      I                                                                                    n.america excl.USA
                    south arnerlm                                                                                               south arnedca
                Mediterranean (hQ                                                                                           "Wlte@n (N
                rnsditerransan (S)                                                                                          moditerranean (S)
                         west afflca   2                                                                                              west africa
                         east africa                                                                                                  east africa
                           australla                                                                                                  australla
                         south sale    I                                                                                              south asla
                   south east sale                                                                                            south east sale
                         gulf aisles                                                                                                  gulf states
                                       0    100       200       300       400        Soo      Soo       700      Soo                             0      100       200       300                 Soo       600        700      Soo
                                                                       min $$                                                                                                       min $$
                                       some remarks:                                                                                             El prospect E3 pending M budget N under execution
                                       ï¿½near future projects between 1 and 5 years                                          * total number of projects: 62
                                       ï¿½ projects > 20 min ss                                                               * data collected with a world wide coverage of 85%
                         Figure 2. Regional distribution of major                                                           near-future dredging projects by stage
                         and category of activity.

                                                                                                                     170







                                                                         Misdorp and Boeije




             NEAR FUTURE DREDGING PROJECTS WORLD WIDE

         Regions :
                           Europe
         N.America (excl.USA)
                 South America
             Mediterranean (N)
             Mediterranean (S)
                      West Africa
                      East Africa
                         Australia
                      South Asia
                South East Asia
                      Gulf States

                                   0                      500                     1.000
                                                                        million US Dollars

                                   N coastal protection             ED urbanisation

                                   E land reclamation                El port extension


            Figure 3. Regional distribution of total cost of near-future dredging projects.
                    considering the possible impact of sea level rise (and climate change)
                    during the planning phase of coastal projects.


            CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

                 The  following conclusions can be drawn, based on the global inventory
            presented above:

                 1.   Future capital investments in the coastal zones could range between $20
                      and $60 billion (U.S. dollars). This sum emphasizes the importance of

                 2.   South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Arabian Gulf States, and to a smaller
                      degree, South America will be heavily investing in future land use

                                                  171











             Problem Identification

                       projects, such as port extensions, (industrial) land reclamation, and
                       urbanization projects.

                  3.   It appears that relatively large investments are planned for land-use
                       projects and that there will be relatively small investments in shore-
                       protection measures on vulnerable coasts. To find out whether this is
                       indeed the case, a global inventory of planned shore-protection
                       construction should be conducted.

                  4.   To obtain more complete information on the investments in the coastal
                       zones, additional inventories should be taken of plans for capital-
                       intensive- agricultural     activities    (enpolderment    of     lagoons,
                       irrigation/drainage projects), freshwater management projects, and
                       construction of infrastructure (bridges, sluices, airports).          Such
                       research should be conducted within the framework of IPCC working
                       groups.










































                                                     172

















                   ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, LEGAL,
                               AND INSTITUTIONAL
               IMPLICATIONS OF RESPONSE STRATEGIES



















        Editor's Note:

              The organizers of the Miami Conference intended to have a session on the
              social and cultural implications of response options, but no such papers
              were received. The conference preserved the time slot by accepting papers
              addressing the social implications of climate change.    In this report,
              those papers have been placed in the other sections.









         SOCIOECONOMIC, LEGAL, INSTITUTIONAL, CULTURAL, AND
        ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF MEASURES FOR THE ADAPTATION
                OF COASTAL ZONES AT RISK TO SEA LEVEL RISE


                      JOB DROVERS, REIN BOEIJE, ROBBERT MISDORP1
                                Transport and Public Works
                                   Tidal Waters Division
                                        Koningsaade 4
                                The Hague, The Netherlands



        ABSTRACT

             In response to the consequences of climate change, in particular sea level
        rise, the Coastal Zone Management report addresses adaptive policy strategies
        for the coastal zones at risk. This paper investigates the effectiveness and
        implementability of response strategies and formulates recommendations for
        adapting to sea level rise.     It presents a worldwide overview of the-major
        problems raised by adaptation to sea level rise.

             A second purpose of this paper is to present a methodological framework
        for the elaboration of response strategies.      This framework may serve as a
        reference for the preparation of more detailed response plans on a national
        level.

             Criteria for comparing response strategies are defined and evaluated for
        the world's largest coastal zones at risk.      The comparison of strategies is
        based, as much as possible, on the quantitative information analyzed in this
        paper. The present situation is used as a reference for all considerations in
        this study.

        INTRODUCTION

             As indicated by the Science Working Group, there is great uncertainty
        concerning the degree to which sea level is expected to rise in the next century.
        As a working hypothesis, a rise of I m will be considered. Information on other



             'This was prepared by the Netherlands' Delegation as information for the
        Coastal Zone Management report of RSWG of the IPCC. This paper was written to
        stimulate discussions of the CZM subgroup at the Miami workshop held in November
        1989. As such, it presents preliminary views only.    It does not constitute the
        policy of the Dutch government.

                                               175









             Implications of Response Strategies

             climate change effects, such as alteration in the frequency and intensity of
             storms, is insufficient to be dealt with in    this study.

                  The impacts of different sea level rise    scenarios on coastal zones at risk
             if no adaptive measures are taken have been    investigated by the Impact Working
             Group.   These impact predictions form the     basis for the response strategies
             considered in this paper.

                  Basically, two policy response options can be distinguished:         limitation
             and adaptation. This study deals only with adaptation, for which two strategies
             can be followed: land-use adaptation and coastal protection. Which one will
             be best depends on criteria referring to the effectiveness and the
             implementability of these strategies.

                  Carrying out the policy options requires "technical" measures (for example,
             the execution of shore protection works, the institution of a coastal survey
             system) and the creation of appropriate conditions for implementation by legal,
             social, economic, financial, and institutional measures. These "implementation"
             measures are necessary to overcome barriers that prevent technical measures from
             being taken or from being effective, such as insufficient financing, lack of
             technical and management know-how, legal opposition, inefficient administration,
             social rejection, cultural traditions, and adverse concessions.

                  Elaboration of the optimal policy choice for all coastal regions at risk
             in the world, including the most appropriate technical and implementation
             measures, is an enormous task.    It requires detailed investigations that cannot
             be accomplished within the limited time available. Furthermore, the choice of
             a response strategy involves the sovereignty of each concerned country, and
             detailed plans are, therefore, the responsibility of local authorities.

                  For these reasons, the approach chosen here avoids a detailed elaboration
             of strategies for each country. A set of parameters is defined and then related
             to the economic, social, institutional, cultural, and environmental aspects of
             various measures. They are chosen in such a manner that simply evaluating just
             the order of magnitude yields an impression of the effectiveness and the
             implementability of different types of measures. Thus, these parameters act as
             "indicative" cri,teria. They do not serve to optimize a response strategy, but
             rather to indicate the problems that are raised by that response strategy.

                  Finally, it should be noted that policies to protect the coastal zone
             against storm events may be linked to policies regarding other (natural)
             disasters: hurricanes, earthquakes, avalanches, fires, and droughts.


             MEASURES

                  Limitation and adaptation are the main policies in combating sea level rise
             in coastal zones. There is also the possibility of doing nothing. One then has
             to face the consequences, which are described in Chapter 2 of the Coastal Zone
             Management report: "Impacts." A brief outl.ine of different policies follows.

                                                     176









                                                                         Dronkers, et al.

         This paper emphasizes adaptation.        It considers two different adaptive
         strategies: land-use adaptation and coastal protection. In practice, not just
         one type of policy will be followed. It would be most efficient to follow some
         policies simultaneously, with regional differentiations.

         Limitation

               If the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues at the
         present rate, the heat budget of our planet will be strongly disturbed.        The
         consequences are hard to predict, but a sea level rise on the order of 6 m in
         the long run cannot be ruled out. Adaptation to such a sea level rise implies
         enormous loss of land and economic and cultural values. Limitation measures,
         therefore, need to be considered.     The impacts of prevention strategies are
         investigated in other subgroups of the RSWG and will not be considered here.

               Limitation aims at limiting the concentrations of greenhouse gas  es in the
         atmosphere in order to fight the causes of climate change and sea level rise.
         Even if limitation measures are taken, the concentration of greenhouse gases in
         the atmosphere will most likely increase during the next century. This brings
         about the risk of an additional rise in sea level, which may amount to 1 m or
         even more. Therefore, it will also be necessary to consider adaptive measures
         in low-lying coastal areas.

         Land-Use Adaptation

               If the coastal zone at risk is used freely for living and working, the
         safety of people could be permanently in danger, and valuable infrastructure
         could be lost. The risks can be limited, however, by regulating the activities
         in the coastal zone. Incidental flooding could be accepted, for example, if it
         were sufficiently controlled so that the zone's people and most valuable
         investments would remain safe.

               Land-use planning in general is a powerful instrument for adaptation to
         the risk of disastrous events, especially if these events are frequent and
         protection is difficult.    In many countries, land use is already subject to
         regulation. This planning is often based on socioeconomic arguments, with risk
         limitation playing a minor role. Examples of risk-limiting land-use planning
         are:

               ï¿½ no activities that may cause subsidence (extraction of gas, oil, water;
                 lowering of the soil water level, etc.);
               ï¿½ restriction of urban development;
               ï¿½ no vulnerable industries with pollution risks;
               ï¿½ no vulnerable investments close to the seashore.

               The adapted land-use strategy requires a large number of adaptive measures:




                                                177









            Implications of Response Strategies

            Technical Measures

                  Construction works should be considered to create locations (mounds) where
            the population can flee the water in case of inundation. Drainage systems are
            necessary for the discharge of water when. the sea level decreases after
            inundation. In addition, an early warning system will be necessary to limit the
            loss of lives by timely evacuation of the      population to 'safe locations.     A
            service with appropriate skills and equipment  should be created to assist damaged
            regions.

            Imglementation Measures

                  Legal adaptation will be necessary to    support changes in coastal marine
            boundaries and land-use planning. In high-risk areas (for example, earthquake
            areas) regulations often exist, mainly referring to construction rules for
            buildings. One might also consider the establishment of legal requirements for
            the construction of houses in regions with risk of inundation.     In many coastal
            zones at risk, houses are already built on poles, but legislation exists in only
            a few countries. Legal adaptation requires the creation of new institutions.

                  Legal requirements should also exist to clarify who 'Will carry the costs
            of land-use adaptation. Such costs include the following:

                  ï¿½ relocation of property,

                  ï¿½ creation of employment in other   parts of the country,

                  ï¿½ loss of property and income due   to inundation, and

                  ï¿½ adaptation of infrastructure.

                  Regions at risk need a high degree of organization to respond to natural
            disasters with a minimum of damage and loss of lives.             A coastal zone
            administration should be charged with planning and putting into effect adapted
            land use, control, coastal survey, early warning, and rapid intervention.
            Educating the population in the coastal zone is also an important concern.

            Coastal Protection

            Technical Measures

                  Protection against natural disasters can, in principle, be offered by civil
            engineering works (see Chapter 4 of the CZM report).        Limitation of natural
            hazards by such construction works is essentially a matter of striking a long-
            term economic balance between costs and benefits.

                  The starting point for the protective measures considered here is
            maintaining the present protection level of human beings and infrastructure in
            the coastal zone at risk. (As an example, the above-formulated starting point
            implies that in a region protected by dikes -- assuming that other conditions

                                                    178










                                                                         Dronkers, et al.

         remain the same -- the dikes should be raised to a level that is approximately
         equal to the height of the rise in sea level). This starting point often does
         not coincide with optimal coastal protection, and may even leave some coastal
         regions with too low a level of protection.    This is the case, in particular,
         for coastal zones which at present are insufficiently protected owing, for
         example, to recent land occupation or subsidence. These situations require a
         solution, but in principle this is independent of sea level rise.

               Protective measures can be divided into "hard" and "soft" measures. Hard
         measures include raising dikes (protecting lowlands), constructing storm surge
         barriers (protecting cities) or closure dams (shortening coastline), and polder

         building (land reclamation). Examples of soft measures are shore face and beach
         nourishment, landfill, and environmental restoration.

               In many cases, the original shape and floral cover of regions at risk offer
         an inexpensive and efficient means to diminish the risk and the extent of storm
         surge disasters.    The original environment, however, has in some cases been
         strongly altered to enhance the exploitation of resources in regions at-risk.
         In those cases, restoration of the natural environment should be considered.

               Sea level rise will cause an increase of seepage.    Infrastructural works
         for water drainage are, therefore, necessary, and operational costs (pumping,
         etc.) have to be considered. An overview of available techniques is given by
         the U.S. delegation of the Climate Zone Management subgroup.

         Implementation Measures

               ï¿½  An adaptive response strategy based on shore protection works is
                  effective only if additional implementation measures are taken.

               ï¿½  An economically and socially acceptable funding mechanism for protective
                  works has to be elaborated.      Legislation has to be reviewed and
                  eventually revised to ensure that it is clear who owns the rights to
                  coastal property and who has the responsibility to protect it.

               ï¿½  For the construction, planning, operation, and maintenance of shore
                  protection works and for water management, an appropriate organization
                  ("Coastal Works Administration") is necessary.     Such an organization
                  should consist of an intensive and sufficiently trained staff.        The
                  creation of training programs and the attraction of technical know-how
                  are, therefore, important prerequisites for the success of a protection
                  strategy.


         IDENTIFICATION OF CRITERIA

               Each of the two adaptive strategies consists of a set of technical and
         implementation measures.     As mentioned in the introduction, the regional
         optimalization of response strategies requires a detailed quantitative impact

                                                179









               Implications of Response Strategies
               evaluation, which is beyond the scope of this study. Instead, specific criteria
               will    be  identified   for use    in evaluating the       effectiveness    and   the
               implementability of the adaptive strategies.

               Effectiveness

                    Effectiveness refers to the capability of strategies to save lives and to
               save economic and environmental values, taking into account the expenses of all
               measures involved. As mentioned in the previous section, this study addresses
               only the problem of sea level rise. Presently existing problems of insufficient
               coastal protection are, in principle, left out of consideration. Consequently,
               the coastal protection strategy does not go farther than maintaining the present
               level of protection against inundation. Such a strategy, thus, is not very
               effective in saving lives and economic values in coastal zones that at present
               suffer from frequent disastrous inundations.

                    If in those coastal zones the choice is made for a coastal protection
               strategy to respond to sea level rise, then an additional effort is required to
               improve the present situation. The existence of a low coastal protection level
               influences the choice of a coastal protection strategy in a negative way, as it
               brings about an increase of costs.

               Capability of Maintaining Safety

                        Coastal protection works, provided they are properly constructed and
                        maintained, may guarantee the safety of lives at the present level.
                        Land-use adaptation can, in principle, offer the same safety only if a
                        substantial part of the population is displaced. Massive displacements
                        are, however, difficult to deal with. Therefore, in countries where the
                        coastal zone population constitutes a significant part of the total
                        population, a coastal protection strategy is likely to be more effective
                        in protecting lives than a land-use adaptation strategy. The fraction
                        of the population living in the coastal zone at risk is a relevant
                        parameter for assessing the effectiveness of land-use adaptation in
                        maintaining safety.

               Capability of Protecting Economic Values

                        Sea level rise increases the risk of loss of economic values (capital
                        investments, production capacity) by inundation. This risk of loss can
                        be diminished by land-use adaptation measures. However, certain loss of
                        capital investments and potential production capacity will always exist.

                        Coastal protection measures can prevent the risk of an increase in
                        economic losses, but may bring about costs that exceed the benefits.
                        The cost-benefit ratio is a relevant parameter for assessing the economic
                        effectiveness of a shore protection strategy. Without detailed studies,
                        only a very rough estimate can be given of this parameter.            A firm
                        conclusion can be drawn only if the ratio is either a multiple or a small
                        fraction of one. In the first case, the economic values in the coastal

                                                        180










                                                                           Dronkers, et al.

                  zone at risk must be small, making land-use adaptation the most
                  appropriate option.   In the second case, coastal protection probably is
                  the most effective strategy.

          Capability of Protecting Environmental Values

                  Sea level rise inevitably affects the coastal environment, as will any
                  adaptive measures. The impact on the environment depends on the type of
                  measures considered. For example, the impact of closure dams will, in
                  general, be greater than the impact of raising dikes.

                  A great environmental impact, however, does not necessarily imply a net
                  loss of environmental values. Environmentally valuable new conditions
                  may be created.    Adaptive response strategies should aim as much as
                  possible at creating conditions for the maintenance or development of
                  sustainable ecosystems with a high biological diversity.

                  Which strategy is most effective -- coastal protection or land-use
                  adaptation -- cannot be decided without detailed studies and requires
                  optimizing of the technical measures.     Therefore, within the limited
                  scope of this study, no indication can be given with respect to the
                  environmental effectiveness of adaptive   strategies.

          Capability of Protecting Cultural Values

                  In general, a coastal protection strategy offers more possibilities to
                  protect cultural values in the coastal zone at risk than a land-use
                  adaptation strategy.   The effectiveness of protection can be assessed
                  only on the basis of elaborate studies and plans.        This criterion,
                  therefore, will not be considered in the further quantitative
                  elaboration.

          Implementability

               Implementability refers to the capability of countries to carry out the
          adaptive strategies. This capability depends on economic, technical, cultural,
          social, legal, and institutional conditions.

          Economic Implementability

                  Implementation of a coastal protection strategy requires the availability
                  of sufficient financial means to afford the realization, maintenance, and
                  operation of coastal protection works. If a high percentage of gross
                  national product (GNP) is necessary for coastal protection, then
                  implementation of this strategy poses problems.

                  These problems may be partly solved by international funding.      In the
                  long run, however, national economics should be able to afford the
                  maintenance and further reinforcement of coastal works. In that respect,
                  the ratio of costs of protection works (including maintenance and

                                                 181









             Implications of Response Strategies

                     operation)   to   the  GNP   is  a  relevant   parameter   for   assessing
                     implementability.

                     Land-use adaptation places restrictions on the economic exploitation of
                     the coastal zone at risk.       If the major contribution to the GNP
                     originates from the coastal zone at risk, then such restrictions may be
                     economically unacceptable. The fraction of the GNP contributed by the
                     coastal zone at risk, therefore, is a relevant parameter for assessing
                     the economic implementability of a land-use adaptation strategy.

             Technical Implementability

                     Coastal protection and land-use adaptation strategies both require the
                     execution of technical measures. Coastal protection, however, asks for
                     works of a larger scale and with a higher degree of complexity than land-
                     use adaptation. Both strategies require technical know-how, especially
                     the coastal protection strategy.        The availability of sufficient
                     technical know-how is hard to assess. The presence of hydraulic research
                     institutes and the number of university graduates in the country can be
                     considered as indicators.

             Social Implementability

                  ï¿½  Social acceptance and cooperation are important conditions for
                     implementing adaptive strategies. The coastal zone population is more
                     strongly affected by land-use adaptation than by coastal protection.
                     Coastal protection, however, requires economic sacrifices of the entire
                     population on behalf of protecting the population in the coastal zone.
                     Participation of the most concerned population groups in the decisions
                     concerning the strategy to be followed favors social acceptance and
                     cooperation. This is possible only if the population is well informed
                     and well organized socially.

                     If the coastal zone population constitutes a large part of the total
                     population, coastal protection measures will be supported in large part
                     by those who are directly concerned. This also favors social acceptance.
                     A land-use adaptation strategy that involves the migration of the most
                     threatened groups poses social integration problems if the displaced
                     groups are large in comparison to the host population.         Thus, the
                     fraction of the population living in the coastal zone at risk is an
                     important assessment parameter:      if this fraction is high, social
                     implementability of a shore protection strategy is easier than that for
                     a land-use adaptation strategy.

             Legal Implementability

                  ï¿½ Adaptive response strategies to sea level rise raise a considerable
                     number of legal questions, some of which have been raised in the previous
                     section. For the successful implementation of adaptive strategies, the


                                                    182









                                                                             Dronkers, et al.

                 relevant legal questions have to be settled in advance. Countries where
                 some form of land-use planning is already practiced may more easily
                 implement a land-use adaptation strategy than countries lacking this
                 experience.    Transfer of experience to those countries will be most
                 useful.

        Cultural Implementability

                 Adaptive response strategies to sea level rise should, as much as
                 possible, prevent the loss of cultural values in the coastal zone at risk
                 and should respect cultural traditions. Generally, cultural values will
                 be better protected by the possibilities inherent in a coastal protection
                 strategy than by those associated with land-use adaptation. The presence
                 of important cultural values in the coastal zone at risk is an argument
                 in favor of a coastal protection strategy. In contrast, coastal zones
                 that have recently been occupied and exploited could be redeserted, as
                 part of a land-use adaptation strategy, without great loss of cultural
                 values.

        Institutional Implementability

                 Coastal protection requires administering coastal works with a staff of
                 highly trained technical personnel (see also the section "technical
                 implementability").    The effectiveness of such an organization can be
                 enhanced by encouraging the local population to participate in funding
                 and decision making, and by delegating tasks to local authorities. The
                 same holds even more true for a land-use adaptation strategy.

                 In this case, a high degree of organization of the entire coastal zone
                 at risk is necessary. Regulation has to take into account the coherence
                 of all social activities based in the coastal zone at risk.               High
                 management skills are required.        Moreover, the cooperation of the
                 population has to be ensured.      Important conditions for success are a
                 sufficient    degree    of   social   organization     (see   also     "social
                 implementability"), and a sufficient educational level of the population
                 in the coastal zone at risk.      The degree of general education can be
                 considered    as    an   assessment    parameter,    especially     for    the
                 implementability of a land-use adaptation strategy.


        RESULTS FROM APPLYING THE CRITERIA

              The criteria for choosing a policy to adapt to sea level rise and for
        assigning priorities to certain types of measures are summarized in Table 1.
        The information necessary to evaluate these criteria for the major coastal zones
        at risk is displayed in Table 2.          The necessary information includes the
        following:

              ï¿½ National population of countries with major coastal zones at risk;
              ï¿½ Gross national product;

                                                  183









             Implications of Response Strategies

                                  Table 1. Criteria for,Policy Selection

                                                  Required                              Required
                                                    for                                   for
                                    Strategies    coastal         Assessment            land-use
             Criterion                           protection       Parameters           adaptation


             Effectiveness                          +           Present protection        0

                  - Safety                                         POP.CZ/POP.N           -

                  - Economics                       +              Benefit/cost

                  - Environment                     Dependent  on detailed plans

             Implementability

                  - Economic                             Cost/GP.N           GP.CZ/GP.N -

                  - Technical                       +                 Experts             0

                  - Social                                         POP.CZ/POP.N           -

                  - Legal                                         Planning exists         +

                  - Cultural                                         Values

                  - Institutional                   0              Education              +



             CZ   Coastal zone at  risk.
             POP. = Population.
             N = National.
             GP.   Gross product.
             Cost   Cost of maintaining present level of coastal protection.
             Benefit = Increase of economic risk for 1 m sea level rise.
             Required: +     high/much
                          o   medium
                              low/few
                              no requirement










                                                     184









                                                                                   Dronkers, et 0.

                                Table 2. Source Data for Policy Selection

                                               Shore-      Prot.
                         POP.N       GP.N      length      cost    POP.CZ       GP.CZ        Benefit
           Country        *108       *109 $     km         *106 s   *106         *109$       *109 $


         Argentina          32        35       2,000        200      3.2         3.5         0.1225
         Bangladesh        108       15.3      2,000        200    15.12         2.1         0.0735
         Brazil            140       240       2,000        200      1.4         2.5         0.0875
         China           1,000     1,500       2,000        200        10         15         0.525
         Egypt              50        63       1,800        180         8         10         0.35
         Gambia            0.7       0.5          400        40    0.161         0.1         0.0035
         Indonesia         180        90       2,000        200        18           9        0.315
         Iraq               16        40          100        10     0.96         2.4         0.084
         Italy              58       670          400        40     1.74          20         0.7
         Maldives          0.2       0.09         400        40      0.2         0.09        0.00315
         Mozambique         15       3.9       1,000        100      1.5         0.4         0.014
         Netherlands        15       203          700        90      8.1         110         3.85
         Nigeria           105       100       2,000        200     10.5          10         0.35
         Pakistan          106        40       1,600        160     3.18         1.2         0.042
         Senegal             7       4.7       1,000        100     0.98         0.7         0.0245
         Surinam           0.4          1         600        60    0.252         0.6         0.021
         Thailand           56        40          400        40     7.84         5.6         0.196
         U.S.A.            250     6,000       1,600        160      2.5          60         2.1
         Vietnam            60     ?) 12       1,000        100         6        1.2         0.042
           Total        1-,199.3   9,058.40 23,000         2,320   99.633     254.39         8.90365

         GP       =  Gross product [$/year]
         CZ       =  Coastal zone
         POP      =  Population
         N        =  National
         Cost     =  Cost of maintaining present level of protection [$/year].
         Benefit  =  Increase of economic risk for 1 m sea level rise [$/year].
         Thumb rules:
           GP.CZ/GP.N = POP.CZ/POP.N
           FREQ = Increase of inundation frequency = 0.01
           CAP.INV = Capital investment in CZ = 5* GP.CZ
           Benefit = FREQ * (0.5 * CAP.INV + GP.CZ) - 0.035 * GP.CZ
           Cost = 100,000 * shore length (km)

         Sources: The Europa Yearbook 1988. World Survey, Vol. I and 2, Europa Publ . Ltd.,
         1988, London; Times World Atlas; Criteria for Assessing Vulnerability to Sea Level
         Rise - A Global Inventory of High Risk Areas.            UNEP/Delft Hydraulics, May 1989,
         Report nr. H838; Dutch Coastal Protection after 1990.            Ministry of Transport and
         Public Works, Rijkswaterstaat, Tidal Water Division, April 1989 (in Dutch).





                                                       185









               Imp7ications of Response Strategies

                      Shore length (including floodplains and bays) of the coastal zone at risk;
                      Cost of maintaining safety at the present level;
                      Population of the coastal zones at risk;
                      Gross product of the coastal zones at risk; and
                      Increase of economic risk (average loss of values due to inundation) at 1
                      m sea level rise.

                    The assessment parameters corresponding to the criteria in Table 3 are
             presented in a number of world maps and summarized for each country and each strategy
             in Tables 4 and 5. The status of the present information is very preliminary. Some
             data are obtained by applying rough approximations and only have an indicative value;
             the workshops of Miami and Perth should provide more complete and reliable data.

                    For the assessment parameters, only three ranges of values are indicated, with
             the medium range corresponding more or less to a world average.      This qualitative
             approach is chosen not only because of the uncertainty of the underlying data, but
             also because of the objective of this study, which is limited to worldwide
             indications.   The assessment parameters and corresponding low, medium, and high
             ranges are indicated in Table 3.


             DISCUSSION

                    As stated in the introduction, the aim of this study is, to the extent
             possible, to express policy implications of climate change and sea level rise in
             measurable quantities.     At the present state of this study, the quality and
             completeness of the input data are insufficient to draw reliable conclusions. The
             writing of this section should, therefore, be postponed.

                    However, to test the usefulness of the chosen approach, a preliminary version
             is drafted. This section, which should be considered mainly as an exercise, will
             discuss the following subjects:

                    ï¿½ Which coastal zones at risk already have an implementable and effective
                      strategy for adapting to sea level rise?

                    ï¿½ For which coastal zones at risk is the implementation of an effective
                      strategy a problem that cannot be solved in the short term by national
                      means?

                    ï¿½ What actions at a national level can improve the implementability and the
                      effectiveness of adaptive strategies?

                    ï¿½ What international actions can assist in the national implementation of
                      adaptive strategies?

                    Inspection of the set of criteria shown in Table 1 leads to the following
             conclusions:




                                                      186







                                                                           Dronkers, et al.


                                   Table 3. Assessment Parameters


           Parameter                Description               Low         Medium       High


        Present        (Frequency of inundation) per         < 10         10-100       > 100
        protection     (year)

        POP.CZ/POP.N   Fraction of the population living     < 10%        10-50%       > 50%
                       in the coastal zone at risk.

        Benefit/cost   Increase of risk of economic          < 0.5        0.5-2        > 2
                       losses at 1 m sea level rise
                       vs. cost of maintaining present
                       level of coastal protection

        Cost/GP.N      Cost of maintaining present level     < 0.005   0.005-0.05      > 0.05
                       of coastal protection vs. gross
                       national product

        GP.CZ/GP.N     Fraction of gross national product    < 10%       10-50%        > 50%
                       originating from the coastal zone
                       at risk

        Experts        Presence of a hydraulic institute     No/No       Yes/No        Yes/Yes
                       and/or a relative number of                       No/Yes
                       graduates superior to the world
                       average

        Education      Educational level                     < 0.5       0.5-1.5       > 1.5

        Planning       Land-use planning exists              No                        Yes

        Values         Important cultural values are         No                        Yes
                       present















                                                  187





              Implications of Response Strategies

                      Table 4. Assessment Parameters for Coastal Protection Strategy


                                        Effectiveness -             Implementability

                                  Technical:     Economic:        Economic:       Present
                 Country           experts     benefit/cost       cost/GP.N      protection


              Required                H             H                  L             H

              Argentina                             M                  M

              Bangladesh                            L                  M

              Brazil                                L                  L

              China                                 H                  L

              Egypt                                 H                  L

              Gambia                                L                  H

              Indonesia                             M                  L

              Iraq                                  H                  L

              Italy                                 H                  L

              Maldives                              L                  H

              Mozambique                            L                  M

              Netherlands                           H                  L

              Nigeria                               M                  L

              Pakistan                              L                  L

              Senegal                               L                  M

              Surinam                               L                  H

              Thailand                              H                  L

              USA                                   H                  L

              Vietnam                               L                  M

           H = High
           M = Medium
           L = Low
                 Not yet available.




                                                      188





                                                                                Dronkers, et al.

                   Table 5. Assessment Parameters for Land-Use Adaptation Strategy


                         Effectiveness                            Implementab lity
                                                                             Legal                 Insti-
                   Lives        Economic       Economic       Social        planning Cultural tutional
   Country     POP.CZ/POP.N benefit/cost GP.CZ/GP.N POP.CZ/POP.N             exists     values education


   Required         L               L             L             L             H          L          H

   Argentina        L               M             L             L                                   M

   Bangladesh       M               L             M             M                                   L

   Brazil           L               L             L             L                                   M


   China            L               H             L             L                                   M

   Egypt            M               H             M             M                                   M

   Gambia           M               L             M             M                                   M


   Indonesia        L               M             L             L                                   M

   Iraq             L               H             L             L                                   M

   Italy            L               H             L             L                                   H

   Maldives         H               L             H             H                                   M

   Mozambique       L               L             L             L                                   L

   Netherlands      H               H             H             H                                   H

   Nigeria          L               M             L             L                                   M

   Pakistan         L               L             L             L                                   L

   Senegal          M               L             M             M                                   L

   Surinam          H               L             H             H                                   H

   Thailand         M               H             M             M                                   M


   USA              L               H             L             L                                   H


   Vietnam          L               L             L             L                                   M

   H = High
   M = Medium
   L = Low
      = Not yet available.




                                                      189








              Implications of Response Strategies

                    1.) Nations with a high GNP:PROTECTION COST ratio and sufficient technical
              know-how are capable of implementing a coastal protection strategy. For some
              parts of the coastal zone, a land-use adaptation strategy may be chosen if this
              is more effective and more easily implemented.

                    Most of the developed countries are in this position (see Table 4). The
              implementation and effectiveness of adaptive strategies may be improved by
              observing national recommendations (see below).

                    2.) Nations with a medium GNP:PROTECTION COST ratio will hardly be able
              to afford protection of the entire coastal zone at risk, especially if the
              present protection level is already (too) low. If, in addition, a high fraction
              of the population is living in the coastal zone at risk, and if a high fraction
              of the GNP originates from this area, then the alternative land-use adaptation
              is hard to implement.   Nations facing such a problem are Bangladesh and, to a
              lesser degree, Senegal. In these countries, the conditions for institutional
              implementation are also unfavorable because of the population's low educational
              level.  The latter problem may also impede the implementation of a land-use
              adaptation strategy in Mozambique (see Table 5).

                    3.)  Nations with a low GNP:PROTECTION COST ratio can hardly afford any
              coastal protection. If a high fraction of the population lives in the coastal
              zone at risk and provides a substantial part of the national income, then the
              alternative of land-use adaptation strategy also is hardly practical. Nations
              in this position are the Maldives, Surinam and, to a lesser degree, Gambia (see
              Table 5).  With the present national means, these nations cannot adapt to sea
              level rise in an effective and implementable manner. Therefore, a considerable
              fraction of the population, prosperity, and cultural values will be subject to
              high risk if no international assistance is provided.

                    The above conclusions should lead to actions on national and international
              levels.

              National Actions

                    Recommendations for action at a national level mainly follow from the
              conditions for effectiveness and implementability. Tables 4 and 5 show that a
              number of these conditions are better satisfied in some countries than in others.
              The list of recommendations may, however, be used 'as a checklist for actions that
              should eventually be undertaken. The actions are listed in the approximate order
              in which they have to be taken.

              National Policy Analysis of the Sea Level Rise Issue

                    Such an analysis may follow the lines of this study, but should be more
              detailed.  It should prepare a policy decision for the optimal strategy to be
              followed and it should yield insight into the actions to be undertaken.           It
              should be clear whether the present situation can be considered as a reference,
              or whether a higher protection level is needed.


                                                     190









                                                                             Dronkers, et al.

             Detection of Activities or Construction Detrimental to Coastal Safety

                   Examples are human-induced subsidence or diversion of sediment from eroding
             parts of the coast. Measures to stop these activities, adapt construction, or
             diminish the negative effects should be considered.   In principle, the emission
             of greenhouse gases also falls into this category of actions.

             Collection of Knowledge of Coastal Zone Management

                   Countries that are in similar situations should be encouraged to exchange
             information on how to deal with coastal problems. Coastal zone management staff
             members should participate in training programs.

             Administration

                   The responsibilities of coastal defense should be clearly established,
             along with the proprietorship of the shore zone and coastal             protection
             structures.   Planning, construction, maintenance, and operation of coastal
             infrastructure, regulation and control, information, early warning, intervention,
             and assistance are tasks that need to be carried out.       Participation of the
             coastal population in decision making and funding should be considered.
             Executive tasks can be delegated to local authorities.

             Land-Use Planning

                   Any new developments in the coastal zone at risk should be examined with
             respect to their sensitivity to sea level rise. Risk-limiting regulations are
             necessary for the installation of new activities. Space for coastal retreat or
             for protection works should be reserved.    Environmental values in the coastal
             zone need protection.    When land-use planning is implemented, indemnity of
             expropriation should be regulated.

             Coastal Survey and Early Warning

                   Regular inspection of coastal protection structures is necessary to detect
             shore retreat and a diminished capability of the protective structures to resist
             storm surges.   A service should be established to take charge of short-term
             prediction of storm surges and early warning of potential   danger.

             Environmental Restoration

                   In many cases, the natural environment contributes    to the safety of the
             coastal zone  against inundation.    Restoration should be considered in those
             regions where the coastal environment has been altered by   human activities.

             Education

                   The population of the coastal zone at risk must       become aware of the
             potential danger of flooding to better understand and obey risk-limiting
             regulations.   Information programs for the population should be organized.

                                                    191








             Implications of Response Strategies

             Attention should be given to the importanc.e-.of birth control in densely populated
             coastal zones at risk.

             Funding

                   In national financial planning, funds should be reserved for coastal
             protection. An equitable cost sharing should be devised between the population
             of the coastal zone at risk and the rest of the nation, and between different
             categories of the population.

             Technical Measures

                   Technical measures should be elaborated,   estimated, and planned to prepare
             for the execution of the preferred adaptive.strategy. Any existing backlog of
             coastal protection has to be addressed by reinforcement of coastal protection
             works, creation of high-water flightareas, etc.

             International Actions

                   The international community can'assist coastal zones at risk to adapt to
             sea level rise in essentially three areas.

             Technological Assistance

                   The United Nations can establish a service of experts in adaptive measures,
             who would be available to assist any country with a coastal zone at risk.          A
             paper on this subject has been prepared by the IPCC-RSWG as part of its Task B
             activities.

             Financial Assistance

                   For the nations with medium or low GNP:PROTECTION COST ratio, funding is
             one of the major problems in adapting to sea level rise.          Possible funding
             mechanisms will be discussed in more detail in the chapter prepared by the
             delegation of New Zealand.

             Relocation

                   Some nations may encounter unsolvable problems in the implementation of
             both a coastal protection strategy and a land-use adaptation strategy. This may
             be the case for certain atoll islands (for example, the Maldives). With a sea
             level rise of 2 m or more, these nations will disappear entirely. Appropriate
             technical protection measures are hardly available. Certain islands will have
             to be abandoned.

                   International assistance will be necessary to facilitate the integration
             of these populations into other countries. The eventual disappearance of certain
             nations poses problems that deserve the attention of the international community.
             The United Nations should designate a special commission to prepare possible


                                                     192









                                                                                  Dronkers, et al.

             solutions for relocation problems. Such a commission might address the problem
             of "environmental refugees" due to global changes in a broader sense.


             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Cendrero, A.    1989.    Planning and management in the coastal zone.          Ocean &
             Shoreline Management 12.

             Charlier, R.H.      1989.    Coastal Zone:      Occupance, Management & Shoreline
             Management 12.

             Climate Impact  Assessment. 1985. SCOPE Report 27.         R.W. Kates, J.H. Ausubel,
             M. Berberian, eds. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

             Commonwealth Secretariat, ed.      Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge, 1989.
             Commonwealth Group of Experts.

             Responding to Changes in Sea Level, Engineering Implications. 1987. National
             Committee on Engineering Implications of Changes in Relative Mean Sea Level.
             New York: Academic Press.

             Scientific American. 1989. Managing Planet Earth. Special issue. September.

             United Nations Environment Program/Delft Hydraulics.         1989.   High Risk Areas:
             Criteria for Assessing Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise - A global inventory to
             Report No. H838. May.

             Wind, H.G., ed. 1987. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Society.            Balkema.

             Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Processes, Miami, 1989. A.J. Mehta, R.M.
             Cushman, eds. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/NBB-0086.

             Workshop on Rising Sea Level and Subsiding Coastal Areas, Bangkok, 1988. SCOPE
             Report (in press).















                                                       193





















               ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS











                ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF SHORE PROTECTION
                             STRATEGIES ALONG OPEN COASTS
                        (WITH A FOCUS ON THE UNITED STATES)



                             DR. STEPHEN P. LEATHERMAN, DIRECTOR
                                Laboratory for Coastal Research
                                     University of Maryland
                                 College Park, Maryland 20742






          INTRODUCTION

                Land loss is a major problem along the U.S. coasts (Figure 1). Erosion was
          first identified along the New Jersey coast where some of the earliest beachfront
          development of hotels and cottages occurred. Almost every conceivable form of
          shore protection has been attempted in northern New Jersey, including
          construction of seawalls, groins, and jetties as well as beach nourishment. Sea
          level rise induces coastal erosion, and the accelerated rate of rise due to
          global warming will only exacerbate the present problems.


          SHORE STABILIZATION

                Shore stabilization measures can be divided into two categories:        rigid
          and nonrigid (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1984). The former often involves
          the emplacement of seawalls, bulkheads and breakwaters (shore-parallel
          structures), and jetties and groins (shore-perpendicular structures). Each of
          these structures has been shown to induce adverse effects in particular settings.
          For instance, the Ocean City inlet jetties have caused sand blockage along the
          Maryland coast for 50 years; the result has been the downdrift erosion of
          northern Assateague Island (a national seashore) at a rate of 10 meters per year.
          Sea Bright, New Jersey, is protected by a massive seawall, but at the expense
          of the recreational beach.

                Elsewhere, groins have been shown to cause extensive damage to downdrift
          beaches, the most infamous case perhaps being Westhampton Beach at Long Island,
          New York.





                                                  197








            Environmental Implications





















                                       "jib















            Figure 1.  Continuing  shore erosion threatens this parking   lot at Coast   Guard
            Beach, Cape Cod, Massachusetts. This is a national problem as     best estimates
            are that about 90 percent of the U.S. sandy beaches are experiencing erosion.



                 The nonrigid approaches of beach nourishment and dune building are generally
            preferred by coastal communities because the soft interface of a sandy beach is
            preserved for recreational pursuits, and yet storm protection can be gained if
            adequate sand quantities are available.          This approach has the least
            environmental impact of any approach, but care still must be exercised. Possible
            problems involve both the dredging and placement of sand.             Biologically
            productive sandy shores must be delineated, and they must not be disturbed.
            Also, adjacent declinate ecosystems, such as coral reefs, must be carefully
            guarded to protect them during dredging operations.     Actual placement of the
            offshore sand on the beach will obvious  ly kill any of the marine organisms in
            the dredged material as well as bury the beach invertebrates (e.g., ghost and
            mole crabs). Studies have shown, however, that the beach ecosystem recovers in
            a few years because organisms living in such a dynamic environment are adjusted
            to severe perturbations from storms and can repopulate the nourished beach.

                                                   198











                                                                                   Leatherman

            Shore-Parallel Structures

                 Shore-parallel rigid engineering structures can be further subdivided into
            onshore (seawalls, bulkheads, and revetments) and offshore (breakwaters)
            approaches. The Galveston seawall along the north Texas coast is probably the
            most important such structure in the United States.      On September 8, 1900,
            Galveston was demolished by a major hurricane, and 6,000 people were killed.
            A seawall constructed after this disaster successfully protected the residents
            and buildings from direct storm assault on the city (Figure 2). The seawall was
            constructed approximately 100 meters landward of the shoreline in 1904, but the
            beach had completely disappeared three decades later (National Research Council,
            1987). While the seawall has functioned well, the recreational beach has been
            lost along this eroding shore. Additional riprap and groins have been emplaced
            to protect the seawall toe and to prevent failure by undermining during a severe
            storm.

                 Seawalls are constructed to protect the upland areas at the expense of the
            beach along retreating coasts. Most likely the seawall would not have been built
            if the beaches had been stable or accreting. It is easy to understand why the
            beach will be pinched out of existence with the confluence of a migrating
            shoreline and a static structure.




























            Figure 2. The Galveston seawall has   been effective in protecting the city from
            certain hurricane destruction but at the expense of the recreational beach.

                                                   199









              Environmental Implications

                   There is much conjecture that seawalls actually accelerate erosion of
              beaches by reflecting a portion of the incident wave energy and increasing
              turbulence at least locally. While it is clear that a certain portion of the
              wave energy can "rebound" off the frontal face of the seawall, it has not been
              proven scientifically that seawalls actually increase beach erosion despite all
              the rhetoric to the contrary by environmental zealots. This issue needs to be
              thoroughly researched by laboratory studies and, especially, by quantitative
              field studies.

                   Some coastal states have banned further seawall construction, notably North
              Carolina and Maine.    Their position is that the shore should be allowed to
              naturally retreat and still maintain the recreational beaches. Because incessant
              beach erosion will eventually result in destruction of human development without
              protection, the rhetorical question here is, "Do you want bedrooms or beaches?"
              No new major seawalls are presently being planned in the United States, largely
              because of their huge expense and the public's preference for "soft" solutions.

                   It should also be kept in mind that seawalls and bulkheads do not always
              work. These structures can be destroyed in a storm or simply overtopped by a
              very high storm surge as happened during Hurricane Hugo along Folly Island, South
              Carolina (Leatherman and Moller, 1990).

                   Breakwaters are emplaced offshore to break down the waves, reducing the
              wave energy and longshore currents. Unfortunately, these massive structures are
              often too effective in this regard, causing severe erosion of downdrift beaches
              such as at Santa Monica, California.    This breakwater did not work correctly
              (i.e., as designed) until it was subsequently damaged in a 1950s storm to allow
              some wave energy to pass through and prevent the building of a beach tombolbo
              (Weigel, 1964).

                   The classic case of the adverse environmental impacts of breakwaters is
              illustrated by the one built in Santa Barbara, California. This breakwater was
              constructed during 1927-28 to provide safe anchorage for recreational boats
              (Figure 3). The implications were not immediately evident even as the downdrift
              beaches experienced severe erosion and storm destruction of buildings and
              infrastructure.   The cause and effect relationship wa   's only later realized;
              attention was drawn to the adverse impacts of these coastal engineering
              structures when the littoral drift system was interrupted.       Breakwaters are
              expensive to build and maintain, and they have found little utility along the
              U.S. coasts.

              Shore-Perpendicular Structures

                   The two common types of coastal engineering structures built perpendicular
              to the shore are groins and jetties. Groins are the most widely used structures
              in the coastal zone, but they are also perhaps the least understood in terms of
              their engineering design. Groin design is considered both an art and a science
              in terms of their length, spacing, height, and permeability.



                                                    200











                                                                                 Leatherman









                                                                           AWL.
























         Figure 3. The Santa Barbara breakwater and harbor represent a classic case of
         interruption of the longshore sediment transport system with updrift accumulation
         of sand as a spit and severe erosion of adjacent,. downdrift beaches.


              The current debate and dilemma surrounding the Westhampton Beach groin
         field epitomizes the problem for downdrift property owners (Figure 4).         The
         affected parties are lodging a $200 million lawsuit against the county, state,
         and federal governments for the loss of their beach and now their houses. It
         should be noted that this groin field was not built to engineering specifications
         with respect to completion of the entire field or sand emplacement requirements.
         This case illustrates the "politics of shore erosion" (Tanski and Bokuniewicz,
         1989).

              Groins essentially "rob Peter to pay Paul" as no new sand is created, just
         redistributed across the beach profile. This question of "sand rights" in the
         coastal zone could be considered as akin to riparian (water) rights in the U.S.
         Southwest.   It should also be remembered that groins do not always work.      For
         example, Hurricane Hugo swept over Folly Beach and the existing groins seemed
         to play little role (negative or beneficial).

                                                201









          Environmental Implications















          A









                                                                              A*-







          Figure 4.   The effects of groins   on the shoreline at Westhampton Beach, Long
          Island, New York, are obvious. While some property owners have greatly benefited
          from the emplacement of these shore-perpendicular structures, the downdrift
          beaches are quickly retreating and the sea is actively claiming residences.



               Jetties are constructed at entrances to tidal inlets to maintain an open
          channel for navigational purposes.      Jetties often serve as total littoral
          barriers to longshore sediment transport, and therefore these large, rigid
          structures can result in extreme starvation of downdrift beaches.

               Ocean City, Maryland, serves as a good case study of the impacts of jetties
          on the adjacent shorelines (Figure 5). A severe hurricane in August 1933 opened
          this inlet, and it was consequently stabilized by the Corps of Engineers during
          1934-35. As the updrift shoreline accreted, the Ocean City fishing pier had to
          be lengthened twice. The jetties filled to capacity in the 1950s, capturing all
          the sand possible updrift of the jetties.    Since this time, the sand has been
          shunted offshore to form an immense ebb tidal shoal.

                                                 202











                                                                                   Leatherman





                                                                           @WAW








                                                                              44

                                                            na,
                                                     @F

                                                   Al,














           Figure 6. Ccean City  Xnlet divides the Maryland coast into Fenwick Island (site
           of Ocean City) and Assateague Island National Seashore. Prior to inlet breaching
           and subsequent inlet stabilization, this shoreline was relatively straight. The
           large-sca'@e offset at the inlet and arc of erosion along northern Assateague
           Hsland are visible from space.


                The jetties have completely blocked the sediment moving southward along
           the coast at an annual net rate of 114,000 cubic meters per year so that northern
           Assateague Xsland has been sand starved, rapidly retreating landward with an
           average eros*on rate of 11 meters per year (Leatherman, 1984). During the past
           50 years, since inlet stabilization, the northern end of the island has already
           migrated landward more than its width into the adjacent bay. It is expected that
           this tflll result in the next few decades in a 3-kilometer-wide breach in the
           barrier island continuity along the Maryland shore (Figure 6). Installation of
           a sand bypassing system, which is critically needed, is not expected because of
           the initial large expense, high operating costs, and problems elsewhere with
           reliability.

                                                  203









               EnvlronmenW Imp7ications






                                                                1980 SHORELINE

                                             Snug Harbor





                                                             cean City
                                 skwux" Bay                  Airport








                                                        Manfic Owen










                                                    PROJECTED YEAR 2020 SHORELINE


                                           Snug Harbor



                                                        Ocean City
                                 skwLWOM say              Airport







                                                            Adandc Ocean





               Figure 6.   A large breach in northern Assateague Island is predicted based on
               an extrapolation of historical shoreline changes.         Ocean City citizens and
               Maryland politicians do not seem alarmed about this eventuality because "ponies
               don't vote."
                                           Snug Harbor
                                                            0







                                                          e@,ancity
                                                     @OcA  rport
                   ==f=D



                                                        204











                                                                                    Leatherman

                Some jetties have been designed on insufficient information or on erroneous
           analysis of existing data. A case in point is the east pass of Coctawhatchee
           Bay, where the weir section was placed on the wrong side of the channel
           (Leatherman, 1989). The long-term, net direction of longshore sediment transport
           had not been correctly determined, resulting in design failure of this
           engineering work.

           Beach Nourishment

                There has been a shift from rigid or hard engineering structures to nonrigid
           or soft engineering solutions in the past few decades.       By placing sand from
           outside the nearshore sand-sharing system, it is possible to build back the
           beach and maintain this soft interface.      Beach nourishment is the method of
           choice for most U.S. coastal communities as a means of providing recreational
           beaches and storm buffers.

                Sand nourishment involves dredging material from a source area and dumping
           it on the nearshore area to create or augment an existing beach.    In both areas,
           care must be exercised to avoid environmental problems. The source material must
           be compatible with the existing beach material in terms of grain size and
           chemical qualities (e.g., not polluted). In earlier times, material was dredged
           from the bays and lagoons and pumped onto the adjacent beaches.               While
           inexpensive per volume extractedi much of the material was too fine to remain
           on the open-coast beach. Perhaps more important, highly productive estuarine
           sediments were disturbed, resulting in mass mortality of endemic species. This
           practice has ceased along the U.S. coasts because of its environmental
           implications and ineffectiveness.

                Sand for beach nourishment is now largely obtained from offshore shoals
           that are sufficiently far out to ensure that their removal does not accelerate
           erosion (Figure 7).    Environmental inventories are necessary to evaluate and
           avoid highly productive offshore shellfish beds, especially clams.       Also, the
           dredgers should avoid excavating deep holes in the seabed that will change wave
           refraction patterns, perhaps concentrating wave energy on one part of the shore.
           In Florida, special care was taken because the sand was being dredged from
           between coral reefs, which are susceptible to high water turbidity. While the
           Miami Beach project was well planned and executed, the anchor lines on the dredge
           ships were moved across the tops of the reefs by currents, scraping off the
           living organisms.

                Water turbidity can also be a problem with sand emplacement unless the
           material is devoid of fine-grained sediments.           In any case, the beach
           invertebrates (e.g., ghost and mole crabs on the    U.S. Atlantic coast) will be
           buried and killed by sand pumping and burial. Fortunately, these populations
           can recover quickly, and species numbers can be back to normal within a few years
           following beach nourishment.





                                                  205











             Environmental Implications


















                                                 Ok@











             Figure 7. Beach nourishment along the Florida Atlantic coast is the preferred
             response to mitigate erosional problems and to maintain a wide recreational
             beach.



             SUMMARY

                 Beach nourishment is considered the most environmentally sensible and
             compatible form of shore protection. Some people also argue that if the sand
             filling is a mistake, then much less damage has been done to the coastal
             environment than with emplacement of hard engineering structures. After all,
             nature can take care of the problem by washing the sand away. By contrast, hard
             engineering structures rarely have been removed once emplaced regardless of the
             adverse consequences. The environmental implications and the long-term economic
             costs have often been underestimated in the continuing process to "shore-up" the
             coast.







                                                   206










                                                                                      Leatherman


         BIBLIOGRAPHY

         Leatherman, S. P.     1984.    Shoreline evolution of north Assateague Island,
         Maryland. Shore    and Beach 52:3-10.

         Leatherman, S. P.    1989.   Coasts and beaches.      In:    Heritage of Engineering
         Geology, the First Hundred Years. Geological Society of American, in press.

         Leatherman, S.P., and J. Moller. 1990. Impacts of hurricane Hugo on the South
         Carolina coast (in preparation).

         National Research Council.        1987.     Responding to Changes in Sea Level:
         Engineering Implications. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences Press,
         148 pp.

         Tanski, J., and H. Bokuniewicz, eds. 1988. Westhampton Beach: Options for the
         Future. Stony Brook, NY: New York Sea Grant Reprint Series, 28 pp.

         U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1984. Shore Protection Manual. Vicksburg, MS:
         Army Corps of Engineers, Wasterways Experiment Station.

         Wiegel, R.L. 1964. Oceanographical Engineering. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice
         Hall, 532 pp.


























                                                   207











          IMPLICATIONS OF RESPONSE STRATEGIES FOR WATER QUALITY



                                         RICHARD A. PARK
                                  Holcomb Research Institute
                                        Butler University
                                  Indianapolis, Indiana.46208






          ABSTRACT

              Human responses to projected climate changes and associated sea level rise
          will affect water quality in many ways.        In many areas, allowing natural
          shoreline retreat and inundation will have an adverse effect on water quality.
          Erosion of wetlands will increase turbidity.     Saltwater will migrate upstream
          in estuaries, endangering water supplies.       Reduced discharge from upstream
          impoundments will aggravate estuarine circulation problems and will enhance
          saltwater intrusion. Some coastal areas, however, will benefit from increased
          circulation of coastal waters. In many areas, rising water tables will inundate
          septic tanks and leach into fields and hazardous waste sites, causing health
          and eutrophication problems.

               In most areas, holding back the sea will have an adverse effect on water
          quality.   Dredge and fill may create noxious conditions as dredged areas
          stagnate. Dikes and levees will isolate wetlands and water bodies from adjacent
          estuaries and will affect sedimentation rates and salinities.      Tidal barriers
          will enclose estuaries for increasing periods of time, thus impeding natural
          circulation; estuarine salinities will be significantly affected, and residence
          times for pollution will increase drastically.


          INTRODUCTION

              Responses to sea level rise can range from planned retreat from coastal
          areas to increasingly more costly engineering solutions, including dredge and
          fill, emplacement of tidal barriers, and construction of dikes and levees.
          Retreat can leave natural terrains and pollutant sources exposed to leaching and
          erosion, resulting in degradation of water quality. Ironically, many engineering
          structures intended to protect against the ravages of the sea will cause problems
          in water quality by modifying mixing and discharge rates.




                                                 209









              Environmental Implications

              RETREAT

                   The option of doing nothing in response to sea level rise will undoubtedly
              be exercised in many areas of the world.   In a few instances water quality will
              improve compared to present conditions, but in most cases water quality will
              suffer as a result.



              EROSION OF WETLANDS AND LOWLANDS

                   Erosion of extensive wetlands will create additional turbidity in some
              areas, with adverse effects on marine flora and fauna. For example, simulation
              of conditions in Key Largo and the Everglades of southeastern Florida indicates
              that a large area of mangrove swamp and freshwater marsh would be inundated and
              eroded by a one-meter rise in sea level by the year 2100 (Figure 1). Even very
              conservative estimates of erosion and   transport of wetland soils suggest that
              high turbidity would result, excluding  seagrass from all but the shallowest


                                   0





                                                         A"OW








                                                    _J


                                    B Drw iftrw   N Daveloood it SuanP
                                    %% Frestmarah IN Taltmersh A%@ Mangrcm.-=
                                    0 Bamimho'Flat E3 Matoc     I Dike




                       Figure 1. Key Largo and the Everglades, southeastern Florida; present conditions
                       and predicted conditions with a one-meter sea level rise by the year 2100, with
                       residential and commercial developments protected (Park et al. 1989).


              waters and killing the coral reefs. Cessation of reef-building along the Florida
              coast during the postglacial sea level rise probably occurred as a result of
              similar erosion of soils on inundated lowlands (Lighty et al., 1978).

                  Many waste disposal sites will also be subject to erosion, especially if
              they have been constructed above ground level (Flynn et al., 1984). Unless these
              facilities are protected or moved, erosion will release toxic chemicals and other
              hazardous materials into the coastal environment.





                                                     210











                                                                                        Park

            IMPACTS ON ESTUARIES

            Salinity

                In response to sea level rise, saltwater in estuaries will migrate upstream
            (Figure 2).   This saltwater intrusion will displace coastal fisheries and
            ecosystems, perhaps increasing shellfish grounds (Hekstra, 1986) but also
            introducing predators (such as the oyster drill) that are excluded by lower
            salinities (deSylva, 1986). It also will endanger municipal water intakes (Hull
            and Titus, 1986). The problems will be aggravated by decreased average discharge
            that can be expected for many rivers under conditions of climate change.
            However, upstream saltwater intrusion may be ameliorated by adjusting river
            channels to higher sea level by means of  sedimentation (Goemans, 1986).

                Upstream reservoirs could cause      NU DW CNINITY, ORM RIWR
            further  problems   with    saltwater
            migration by decreasing freshwater
            discharge.     However,    controlled
            releases of fresh water to coincide             6
                                                            5
            with high tide levels, as practiced       @s    4
            now by many water basin authorities,            3
            could help alleviate the problem.               2
            Trapping of sediments in reservoirs
            also will   prevent   adjustment   of
            channels and adjacent wetlands to sea             52 57 73 78 84 89 94 90 102 108 111 111 V
            level rise, thereby perpetuating both                       RIVER MILE
            saltwater migration and inundation                IASE  -,-T3-CM -.-250-CM
            (Broadus et al., 1986).                 1Figure 2. Distribution of chlorinity inI
                Some coastal areas that now have    the Delaware River, U.S.A., at present
            higher or lower salinities due to       and as a function of sea level rise
            restricted exchange with the open       (Hull and Titus 1986).
            ocean will benefit from more normal
            marine salinities as tidal prisms increase and as barrier islands and fringing
            reefs are breached and inundated.

            Turbidity and Sedimentation

                Only a small fraction of sediment transported into estuaries reaches the
            Continental Shelf. For example, 91% of the sediment transported into the upper
            Chesapeake Bay is retained there (Meade, 1972a). Most of the coarser bed load
            is deposited near the toe of the salt wedge that extends upstream beneath the
            less dense freshwater wedge; sea level rise would cause this material to be
            deposited farther upstream.     Sedimentation of suspended particles occurs
            initially near the turbidity maximum, which is just downstream from the toe of
            the salt wedge (Meade, 1972b). The turbidity maximum would also move upstream
            with sea level rise.





                                                  211










               Environmental Implications

               Increased Stagnation at Depth in Restricted Areas

                    In well-stratified coastal waters, deepening conditions may increase the
               potential for stagnation of bottom waters and development of anoxic conditions.


               IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER

                    As of 1977, 21 coastal states in the United States had problems with
               saltwater intrusion into aquifers, because of excessive pumping (Newport, 1977).
               Saltwater intrusion will become a greater problem with sea level rise, especially
               if coastal communities and farms are forced to rely           more on groundwater as
               surface water supplies become saline.

                    The   Ghyben-Herzberg     principle           Grourw LeV*F
               has been used to estimate the extent
               of     saltwater     intrusion       into
               unconfined aquifers as a result of                               All
                                                                                         ï¿½@Iaa!ed Aet Ltval
               sea I evel ri se (Kana et al . , 1984) .                               S     Present sea Level
               The saltwater-freshwater interface
               below sea level      is  40  times    the   Freshwater
                                                           System Before
               freshwater head above    sea level, and     Sam Level FUse
               the interface and head   are assumed to
                                                                   -  -      Freshwater System
               shift accordingly with   sea level rise                       Displaced By    AN=1-
                                                                             Sea Level Rise
               (Figure    3).         The   horizontal     L_
               displacement has two components:       x,   Figure 3.   Saltwater intrusion into an
               which is a function of the slope, and       unconfined coastal aquifer as a function
                y, which is a function of sea level        of sea level rise (modified from Mehta
               rise. However, the principle assumes        and Cushman 1989).
               equilibrium conditions, which may not
               be attained with substantial groundwater discharge and with rapid sea level rise;
               the result is usually a worst-case estimate. For example, the saltwater front
               in the Biscayne aquifer extends several miles seaward past where the Ghyben-
               Herzberg principle predicts it should be (Lee and Cheng, 1974).


               DREDGE AND FILL

                    One response that can be undertaken by individual property owners is to
               dredge canals and use the dredge fill to raise individual properties. However,
               these finger-fill canals can become anoxic with deepening water conditions. To
               promote adequate mixing and aeration, the U.S.       Environmental Protection Agency
               (1975) has recommended that canal depth not exceed 1.2 to 1.8 m.           If 4.0 mg/L
               dissolved oxygen is taken as the minimum desirable concentration, even a 0.5-m
               rise in sea level will cause a significant water quality problem (Figure 4).






                                                         212












                                                                                            Park


           DIKES AND LEVEES
                                                                      RDRIDA, ALW ITA
                Dikes and levees are earthen
           embankments constructed to prevent
           flooding   of lowland    areas.      By         6 -
           isolating wetlands and water bodies             5
           from normal exchange with estuaries             4
           and rivers, they reduce sedimentation           3
           rates and alter salinities.        They         2
           also prevent natural flushing of
           pollutants.    As the hydraulic head
           increases with rising sea level,                  .........     ..............   I
           water tables will rise and seepage of             0.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.1 3.4 4A 4.6 5.2 5.0 6.4 7.0 1.6
           saltwater will    increase in areas
           below sea level.     This problem is
           already affecting Dutch agricultural      Figure  4.   Relationship of dissolved
           lands (Goemans, 1986; van Dam, 1986),     oxygen  to depth of fingerfill canals in
           and substantial sea level rise would      Florida (U.S. Environmental Protection
           aggravate the problem further (Figure     Agency 1975).
           5).





                 0  mmiday

                  D25
            MEM
                  050



















                       Scheldt


           A Present                                       B Five-meter rise

           Figure 5.   Change in seepage of   saltwater in the Netherlands with a five-meter
           sea level rise (DeRonde, 1989).


                                                   213









              Environmental Implications

              TIDAL BARRIERS

                   Movable barriers are constructed across estuaries to prevent storm surges
              from moving upstream; they also can be designed to ameliorate the effects of
              tidal flooding associated with higher sea level. Barriers have been installed
              to protect areas such as London, England; Osaka, Japan; Providence, Rhoda Island
              (U.S.); and the Rhine Delta, the Netherlands.        Barriers are currently being
              planned to protect Venice, Italy, by sealing off the tidal inlets to Venice
              Lagoon (Carter, 1987; Pirazzoli, 1987). The problem with such barriers is that
              they impede circulation, thus affecting salinities and trapping pollutants.
              Extensive studies of Venice Lagoon (Figures 6*and 7) have shown that water
              qual i ty woul d be much worse under more 1 i mi ted exchange through the t i dal i nl ets;
              algal blooms would increase due to eutrophication, and residence times of toxic
              pollutants would also increase. However, the surface of the lagoon is inclined
              to the southwest with the persistent Bora wind, which causes about a quarter of
              the floods (Pirazzoli, 1987), and barriers could be operated to enhance
              circulation due to that difference (Kej, personal communication, 1989).



                                              F-7                              .-4
                       a.                                        .06/    .06
                                                                   .0                 .02

                                                                                             .02

                              2                                          0
                                                                          3P

                                                                                       .0

                                                                                       .04
                                   N25                                                .06
                                             .5                                       .08

                                                                                      A0

                   .6                                             .0a


                                       2                            .06
                                                               4
                       2
              W2                                              0 2              b;
                                                                             9 Is
              Figure 6.    Simulated  distribution of     Figure  7.   Simulated distribution of
              ammonia in Venice Lagoon with tidal         phytoplankton in Venice Lagoon with
              exchange with the Adriatic Sea (Dejak       tidal exchange with the Adriatic Sea
              et al.,1987).                               (Dejak et al., 1987).





                                                       214










                                                                                          Park

           CONCLUSIONS

                If response strategies are ignored, water pollution is generally viewed as
           a minor impact of sea level rise, compared with inundation, erosion, and
           flooding.   But strategies to protect dryland would have important impacts on
           water quality.    When viewed in conjunction with potential loss of natural
           shorelines, one could conclude that the environmental implications of sea level
           rise ultimately may, prove to be more important than the more obvious economic
           impacts.


           ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

               This paper was prepared through Cooperative Agreement CR-816331-01-0 with
           the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; James G. Titus is the project monitor.
           James Rogers and Paul van der Heijde reviewed the manuscript; their help is
           appreciated.


           BIBLIOGRAPHY

           Broadus, J., J. Milliman, S. Edwards, D. Aubrey, and F. Gable. 1986.        Rising
           sea level and damming of rivers: Possible effects in Egypt and Bangladesh.      In:
           Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Volume 4: Sea
           Level Rise.   J.G. Titus, ed.    Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection
           Agency, pp. 165-189.

           Carter, R.W.G. 1987.    Man's response to sea-level change.      In: Sea Surface
           Studies: A Global View. R.J.N. Devoy, ed. London: Croom Helm, pp. 464-498.

           de Ronde, J.G. 1989. Past and future sea level rise in the Netherlands.         In:
           Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Processes. A.J. Mehta, and R.M. Cushman,
           eds. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, pp. 253-280.

           Dejak, C., I.M. Lalatta, L. Meregalli, and G. Pecenik. 1987. Development of a
           mathematical eutrophication model of the lagoon of Venice. Ecological Modelling
           37:1-20.

           DeSylva, D. 1986. Increased storms and estuarine salinity and other ecological
           impacts of the greenhouse effect.      In:  Effects of Changes in Stratospheric
           Ozone and Global Climate, Volume 4: Sea Level Rise. J.G. Titus, ed. Washington,
           DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, pp. 153-164.

           Flynn, T.J., S.G. Walesh, J.G. Titus, and M.C. Barth. 1984.       Implications of
           sea level rise for hazardous waste sites in coastal floodplains.   In: Greenhouse
           Effect and Sea Level Rise.     M.C. Bart, and J.G. Titus, eds.     New York: Van
           Nostrand Reinhold, pp. 271-294.




                                                  215









              Environmental Implications

              Goemans, T. 1986. The sea also rises: The ongoing dialogue of the Dutch with
              the sea. In: Ef f ects of Changes i n Stratospheri c Ozone and Gl obal Cl i mate. J. G.
              Titus, ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, pp. 47-56.

              Hekstra, G.P. 1986.     Will climatic changes flood the Netherlands?         Effects on
              Agriculture, land use and well-being. Ambio 15:316-326.

              Hull, C.H.J., and J.G. Titus, eds. 1986.         Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise,
              and Salinity in the Delaware Estuary. Trenton, NJ: Delaware Basin Commission.

              Kana, T.W., J. Michel, M.O. Hayes, and J.R. Jensen. 1984. The physical impact
              of sea level rise in the area of Charleston, South Carolina.            In: Greenhouse
              Effect and Sea Level Rise.       M.C. Barth, and J.G. Titus, eds.        New York: Van
              Nostrand Reinhold, pp. 105-150.

              Lee, C-H., and R.T. Cheng. 1974. On seawater encroachment in coastal aquifers.
              Water Resources Research 10(5):1039-1043.

              Lighty, R.G., I.G. MacIntyre, and R. Stuckenrath. 1978. Submerged early holocene
              barrier reef south-east Florida shelf. Nature 276:59-60.

              Mehta, A. J. , and R. M. Cushman, eds. 1989. Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Coastal
              Processes. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, 289 pp.

              Newport, B.D. 1977. Salt Water Intrusion in the United States. Ada, OK: U.S.
              Environmental Protection Agency.

              Park, R.A., M.S. Trehan, P.W. Mausel, and R.C. Howe. 1989. The effects of sea
              level rise on U.S. coastal wetlands. In: The Potential Effects of Global Climate
              Change on the United States: Appendix B - Sea Level Rise. J.B. Smith, and D.A.
              Tirpak, eds. pp. 1-1-1-55.

              Pirazzoli, P.A. 1987. Recent sea-level changes and related engineering problems
              in the lagoon of Venice (Italy). Progress in Oceanography 18:323-346.

              U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1975. Finger-fill canal studies Florida
              and North Carolina. Athens, GA: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 427 pp.

              Van Dam, J. C. 1986.     Characterization of the interaction between groundwater
              and surface water: salinity.       In: Conjunctive Water Use.      S.M. Gorelick, ed.
              Wallingford, Oxfordshire, England: International Association of Hydrological
              Sciences, pp. 165-179.









                                                        216











                           COASTAL MARINE FISHERY OPTIONS
                IN THE EVENT OF A WORLDWIDE RISE IN SEA LEVEL



                           JOHN T. EVERETT AND EDWARD J. PASTULA
                             National Marine Fisheries Service
                     National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                                   Silver Spring, Maryland





          INTRODUCTION

               Many stocks of marine finfish and shellfish throughout the world depend
          on fertile coastal marsh and estuarine areas for either part or all of their
          life cycle. With a worldwide rise of sea level of 0.5 to 1.0 meters by the
          year 2050 (as assumed in this paper), these areas may undergo considerable
          change and may eventually be replaced by new environmental regimes. Living
          marine resources indigenous to these areas will have to adapt to the changing
          conditions, migrate to more suitable waters, or simply die.

               During these changes, the socioeconomic and perhaps political fabric
          dependent on the harvest of these resources will also be in jeopardy. With
          these possibilities in mind, governments will have to decide either to attempt
          to protect important fisheries or to allow nature to take its course. If the
          protection course is chosen, then options and strategies must be developed for
          its implementation.

          Habitats Threatened by Sea Level Rise

               In the United States, about 70 percent of our fisheries depend on
          estuaries for their existence (National Marine Fisheries Service Archives,
          1989a). Worldwide, this figure is probably smaller but certainly significant.
          There are, of course, regional variations. In the southeastern United States,
          for example, about 90 percent of the fisheries are estuary dependent. In this
          region, we have the most important U.S. fishery in terms of value -- shrimp
          (Penaeus spp., $506 million) -- and in terms of volume -- menhaden (Brevoortia
          spp., 946 million metric tons) (National Marine Fisheries Service, 1989b).
          The sea level rise problem in the Southeast is complicated by subsidence of
          the land in a large portion of the region. We are experiencing now the
          problems that may occur on a more general basis around the world with a rise
          in sea level. Those of us involved in a custodial role with living marine
          resources have several concerns.


                                                217










             Environmental Implications

             Marshes and Shallows for Habitat and Nutrition

                  A multitude of commercially and recreationally important species use the
             fringing marshes and shallow waters for critical parts of their life cycle
             (including reproduction, shelter, and foraging). We are becoming increasingly
             aware of the great significance of these areas to marine resources. Many
             species live in rather narrow bands along and through these coastal areas. If
             sea level rise is rapid, new habitats will not be created by natural processes
             in the quantities required to maintain healthy populations of many species
             (Gardner, 1990).

             Wetlands That Interact With the Marine Habitat

                  Further inland from the marshes are the wetlands and their rich and
             diverse life, all of which interact with the marshes (Figure 1). Nutrients,
             animal life, and waters are exchanged in an endless pattern. The health of
             the wetlands is crucial to the health of the marine side of the equation. As
             sea level rises, the areas occupied by the wetlands will be the primary source
             of new marshes and shallow-water habitat.

             Turtle-Nesting Beaches

                  Many species of sea turtles are recognized throughout the world as being
             endangered or threatened with extinction (Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L.
             93-205), as amended in 1988 (P.L. 100-478)). Many of their nesting beaches
             have attributes that are also sought by mankind. As a result, many of the
             existing beaches are fringed with buildings of various types. Many of these
             structures represent significant economic investments. In addition, roads
             throughout much of the world are built just landward of these beaches. With
             even a small rise in sea level, significant additional stress will be placed
             on turtle populations.

             Haul Out and Pupping Beaches for Pinnipeds

                  Most pinnipeds are heavy users of beaches (Figure 2). As in the case of
             turtles, there are often human investments just landward of the present
             beaches. In addition, sea level rise will inundate some important habitats.
             A very gradual rise in sea level probably would not present a major problem.
             Perhaps the case involving pinnipeds is more regionally differentiated than
             any of the other problem areas. Some species are quite isolated from interac-
             tions with mankind, while others compete quite aggressively with people for
             beach space.


             WINNERS AND LOSERS

             Short-Term Impacts

                  In the short term (10 to 100 years), it is possible to find both winners
             and losers. As marshes flood, some shrimp will have improved their habitat,

                                                  218










                                                                       Everett and Pastula

                                                    -;L-4







                            MM





                                                                                 A







                                                                              ArA*




           Figure 1.  Estuarine channel showing  marsh grasses and boat access.









                                                       IVM




                                                          4W





                                                             4








           Figure 2. Female California sea lions with pups on a northwest U.S. beach.

                                                 219









             EnvironmentV Imp7ications

             and some fish will have more food as the marshes rot (Zimmerman et al., 1989).
             However, it should be clear that these benefits are very transitory. With a
             loss of their habitat as the marshes flood and die, the populations of these
             animals will most likely plummet. These are not inconsequential losses. In
             the United States, for example, our southeastern shrimp and menhaden fisheries
             fall into this category.

                  Some species subsist on a narrow band along the shore. For example, some
             clams and other shellfish live in quite narrowly defined niches in the marshes
             and shallows. They will lose their habitats with any but the slowest rates of
             sea level rise. As noted above, some important species of sea turtles are
             particularly susceptible to losing their nesting beaches.

             Long-Term Impacts

                  In the long term (beyond 100 years), if sea level rises very slowly and
             land and property are not protected, there will be little impact on fisheries.
             However, sea level rise may not be quite so slow, and people will most likely
             protect their investments in property and farmland that line much of the
             world's beaches, marshes, and wetlands. Given that significant protection
             will be attempted to preserve valuable dryland, particularly in the absence in
             many areas of knowledge of the importance and value of wet habitats,
             estuarine-dependent species can be expected to suffer. Shrimp, sea turtles,
             and coastal pelagic finfish may lose the most.

                  We have been quite unsuccessful in identifying the long-term winners.
             Perhaps as we learn more about the interactions of fisheries' resources with
             sea level rise, we will find some. However, we do not envision discovering
             species that will significantly benefit over the long term.

                  As custodian of our nation's living marine resources, NOAA/National
             Marine Fisheries Service argues constantly against those in government and in
             the private sector who would add to investments in the coastal areas (National
             Marine Fisheries Service, 1983-1989). We do not do this in anticipation of
             sea level rise, but rather to slow the rate at which we are losing our coastal
             wetlands and estuaries. We know that this is a difficult struggle, and we are
             gravely concerned that those with investments along shores and wetlands will
             be successful in protecting them regardless of the value of the fisheries
             affected by protectionist actions. If sea level rises and the natural
             succession of dryland to wetland, marsh, and shallow water is not allowed to
             run its course, manyfisheries and some endangered species will pay a dear
             price. This information on the importance of coastal habitats to continued
             production of fisheries must be brought before coastal planners, engineers,
             and government officials in as forceful and meaningful a manner as possible.
             There are many acres of land suitable for farming and for cities. There is
             relatively little available for coastal and estuarine habitat. This leads us
             to the following thought:




                                                  220










                                                                      Everett and Pastula

                                An acre of farmland is one of many.
                                 An acre of marsh is one of a few.
                   Protection of farmland will disproportionately hurt fisheries.


           FISHERIES OPTIONS

                The following options were developed from a review of the current
           literature, as well as our own thoughts and discussions on the subject, based
           on the assumption of a 0.5- to 1.0-meter rise in sea level. For purposes of
           this paper, the options have been placed in three groupings:
           scientific/technical, economic, and sociological/political.

                We also project that human and financial resources (HFR) to address
           living marine resource (LMR) problems and opportunities throughout the world,
           resulting from a rise in sea level, will be very scarce. Individual nations
           may accord higher priority status, and use of scarce HFR, to more pressing
           needs such as agricultural adjustments, population relocation, disaster
           relief, transportation, etc. The only practical way to address the protection
           and conservation of LMRs, many of which are highly mobile and transboundary,
           is through the international pooling and allocation of HFRs.

                To help in deciding how to allocate these fiscal resources, we have
           ranked the options under each category according to what we consider would be
           their value to society and the resource. In this regard, options were
           assigned a value of High (H), Medium (M), or Low (L) according to their
           importance relating to the protection, conservation, and use of the world's
           living marine resources. The rankings were developed following discussion and
           review with several senior fisheries scientists and administrators at the
           headquarters of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service.

           Scientific/Technical

           (H)  Advise decisionmakers engaged in the planning, construction, and
                maintenance of water barriers about the needs of fisheries. Serious
                attempts may be made to "Hollandize" certain parts of a country to regain
                or supplement lost land as a result of flooding. Encourage the concept
                of providing for new nursery grounds at a level possibly exceeding
                preflood extent and values.

           (H)  Improve resource monitoring systems to provide current information on
                changes in fishery habitats and populations in response to global warming
                or to some other environmental change that may significantly alter the
                "stability" of fishery resources. The information must be developed,
                archived, and made readily accessible.

           (H)  Encourage development now of biological controls of agricultural pests
                over chemical,means, and promote the use of rapidly degradable crop
                growth chemicals to reduce land runoff pollution of estuarine, marsh, and
                coastal areas conducive to fishery resources. Reduced land for

                                                221









            Environmental Implications

                 agricultural use may trigger efforts to drastically increase agricultural
                 production through more deliberate and extensive use of fertilizers and
                 other growth chemicals. Such development may substantially increase
                 their entry into fishery ecosytems.

            (M)  Promote the development of realistic models of the inshore, nearshore,
                 and offshore environment to assist in predicting environmental and
                 biological changes in these overlapping zones.

            (M)  Maintain the diversity of species by establishing preserves of suitable
                 habitat for species being harmed.

            (L)  Cooperatively develop State/Federal plans addressing anadromous and
                 catadromous fishery resources.

            (L)  Encourage development now of an early warning system to detect abnormal
                 pathogenic activity among fishery resources that may enter the human food
                 chain. Depending on the rate of change, a worldwide rise in sea level
                 may very well result in biological stress to existing and potentially new
                 fishery resources. Such stress may aggravate existing pathogenic, but
                 in-check or dormant, organisms to explode to epidemic proportions. LMR
                 populations may suffer irrevocable disaster, and some pathogens may find
                 their way into the human food chain. Some thought and prevention
                 planning should be given to this possibility, and early warning systems
                 to detect pathogenic abnormalities should be devised and monitored.

            (L)  Assist in development of different or new harvesting and processing
                 methods and techniques geared to different stocks and their distribution.

            (L)  Develop and establish federally funded and supported "Living Marine
                 Resources Banks" designed as repositories (cryogenic gene banks?) for the
                 continuance of species biologically important not only to.mankind but
                 also to their own survival and prosperity.

            Economic

            (H)  Constrain further development in the coastal zone to avoid the likelihood
                 of defensive strategies to protect developed areas. The natural
                 succession needed by marine species will depend on an undefended
                 shoreline.

            (H)  Foster, possibly with economic incentives, mariculture to continue and
                 increase the supply of seafood as well as to supplement wild stocks, and
                 maintain populations of endangered and threatened species (e.g., turtles)
                 that may be affected by changes in nesting habitat, locale, and food
                 supply.

            (M)  Safeguard existing coastal mariculture capabilities of countries and
                 communities that heavily depend on mariculture for food and export
                 revenues.


                                                  222











                                                                      Everett and Pastula

           (L) Develop and establish a decisionmaking process for the sole purpose of
                determining which fishery stocks (and support systems) should be and can
                be "saved," as opposed to those that should be allowed to be at the mercy
                of natural forces.

           Sociological/Political

           (H)  Encourage and provide for education of the public and government sectors
                about sea level predictions and how they should respond. It is important
                that all people understand the situation and receive good advice on
                proper courses of action.

           (H)  Continue mediation of potential conflicts between commercial and
                recreational fishermen. Some problems will exist, but priorities and
                species of concern may change. There may be more initial commercial
                demand for fish protein as the supply of agricultural, dairy, and land-
                produced meat products changes.

           (H)  Encourage the development, implementation, and enforcement of policies
                designed to promote holistic commercial and recreational development of
                newly created marsh, estuarine, and other coastal areas that may serve as
                resource nursery and feeding grounds.

           (H)  Promote the concept of "world food security," as defined by the Food and
                Agriculture Organization, but in terms of world fisheries exemplified by
                the adequacy of fishery products, stability of fishery products, and
                especially access by the world's populace to fishery products.

           (H)  Implement fishery management schemes to protect, conserve, and adequately
                allocate offshore fishery stocks. There may be a shift from perceived
                unstable inshore fisheries toward greater utility of more stable offshore
                fisheries. Such a move would result in greater harvest pressure on
                offshore stocks, possibly resulting in depletion of such stocks.

           (M)  Develop new fishery management methods, techniques, and plans to
                accommodate the potential shift and relocation of fishery stocks in
                primarily new estuarine and coastal areas. It is also very important to
                keep stocks healthy so that they can be resilient in times of stress.

           (M)  Encourage and promote closer ties and alliances among fishery-oriented
                government groups (domestic and international), private citizenry, and
                commercial enterprises for the purpose of pooling talent and scarce
                resources.

           (L)  Foster appropriate implementation of new regulations and the enactment of
                new laws as may be necessary to manage the new fisheries regimes.

           (L)  Assist harvesters, processors, and users in adjusting to different and
                new species and to the demands made on them.


                                                 223









             Environmental Implications

             (L) Encourage the streamlining of the current judicial process dealing with
                  environmental and LMR matters so that the focus of resulting litigation
                  will not "wither on the vine."



             CONCLUSION

                  As custodian of our Nation's living marine resources, we are dedicated to
             the protection, conservation and wise use of the animals that inhabit the
             marine and estuarine environment, as well as their habitat. Government can
             help conserve and manage fisheries that are of economic, sociological, and
             political importance to our planet's inhabitants.

                  The ability of governments to take these actions depends both on the
             availability of financing and on the importance these nations attribute to the
             resources at risk. A cursory examination of the listed options reveals that
             many of them would require massive expenditure to effect the option. It is
             also evident that no single government can achieve even adequate protection of
             its living marine resources and their habitat unless it is willing to
             sacrifice other substantive resources to do so. Our observations indicate
             that governments are often neither willing nor able to allocate scarce
             resources to protect fisheries and their habitat.

                  We therefore conclude that if governments decide to protect their living
             marine resources, they must collectively decide on fishery priorities and pool
             together the scarce, necessary resources to produce the desired effect.


             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Gardner, J. 1990. Reporting on research at Connecticut College. National
             Fisherman 70(10):52.

             National Marine Fisheries Service Archives. 1989a. Extrapolated information
             from 1983 U.S. commercial fishing landings data. J. Chambers, National Marine
             Fisheries Service, personal communication.

             National Marine Fisheries Service. 1989b. Fisheries of the United States:
             Current Fisheries Statistics. No. 8800. Silver Spring, MD: National Marine
             Fisheries Service, p. v, ix.

             National Marine Fisheries Service. 1983-1989. Habitat Conservation Program
             Annual and Biannual Reports. Silver Spring, MD: National Marine Fisheries
             Service.

             Zimmerman, R., E. Klima, T. Mimnello, and J. Nance. 1989. Wetland losses and
             fishery gains: a paradox in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Galveston, TX:
             National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Center (unpublished
             manuscript).


                                                   224










                      IMPACT OF RESPONSE STRATEGIES ON DELTAS



                                           JAMES G. TITUS
                                     Office of Policy Analysis
                              U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                                           Washington, DC





                The previous three papers have a common theme: protecting developed areas
           from inundation and erosion usually upsets the coastal environment. In the case
           of the open coast, Leatherman shows that seawalls and sea dikes can result in
           the loss of natural beach and dune ecosystems; groins merely transfer the erosion
           problem from one area to another; and even the environmentally preferred approach
           of sand replenishment can hurt life on the inner continental shelf.           Along
           sheltered shores, bulkheads to stop erosion can result in wetlands loss, and Park
           points out that tidal barriers to prevent flooding can cause pollutants to build
           up.

                In addition, dams built to counteract increased drought could limit the
           freshwater flowing into estuaries, and thereby exacerbate salinity increases due
           to sea level rise. Frequently, however, the dams are used to maintain riverflows
           above a minimum level; hence they would often help to offset the salinity
           increases.   Finally, the construction of dikes and pumping systems to prevent
           inundation due to sea level rise would cause groundwater to become salty.

                The purpose of this note is to highlight the environmental impact of
           response strategies on deltas, which fit broadly into three categories: river
           dikes (levees); dams; and sea dikes.


           RIVER DIKES

                Deltas were created by the sediment washing down from the adjacent rivers.
           Generally, the flood season brings sediments that elevate existing land and
           create new land in areas that were formerly shallow water bodies. The size of
           a delta tends toward an equilibrium equal to the volume of sediment supplied by
           the river and wetland vegetation divided by the rate of relative sea level rise.'
           Because the recently deposited deltaic muds tend to settle, the relative rate
           of sea level rise in many deltas is 5 to 10 millimeters per year (compared with
           the worldwide average of 1 to 2 millimeters per year).       Without the sediment
           supplied by the river, they would gradually disappear even without an accelerated
           rise in sea level due to the greenhouse effect.



                                                   225









             Environmental Implications

                   In the case of a delta with the equilibrium area and relative sea level
             rise today of 5 mm per year, a 50-cm rise in sea level by 2100 would imply that
             the sustainable area of the delta will be cut in half -- assuming that the
             supplied sediment remains constant. But if sediment supplies are curtailed, the
             delta could be almost completely lost. As Schroeder (North America, Volume 2)
             discusses, Louisiana (United States) is losing 100 square kilometers of deltaic
             wetlands to the sea largely because dikes (levees) along the Mississippi River
             prevent it from overflowing its banks during floods and from providing sediment
             to the delta; the sediment washes off the continental shelf instead.

                   There is a risk that a rise in sea level could encourage additional dikes.
             Consider Bangladesh, half of which is regularly flooded.          If sea level were
             higher, the water levels in much of the country would be similarly higher, and
             areas currently outside the floodplain would then be within it.         As a result,
             officials might decide to build dikes to protect a few key areas. The resulting
             confinement of riverflow, however, would tend to increase the flooding of other
             areas, which could lead them in turn to demand a dike.              If this process
             continued, large amounts of sediment eventually would be washing into deep waters
             there as well.

                   As has already occurred in Louisiana, the dikes would accelerate the
             conversion of wetlands to water and would lead to the inundation of dryland that
             woul d otherwi se remai n above sea 1 evel .    Because the annual river flooding
             provides important nutrients, the dikes would also degrade the fertility of
             deltaic farmland.



             DAMS

                   Similar impacts could occur if changes in precipitation patterns lead to
             the construction of more reservoirs.        Dams block the sediment flowing down
             rivers.   Although the diversion of water reduces the average annual flow of
             water, their impact on estuarine salinity during droughts (when it is most
             critical) depends on whether water managers use the dams to maintain minimum
             flows for navigation and environmental quality.

                   The Nile Delta has already seen the consequences of dam construction. The
             delta has started to erode rapidly, and the sardine fishery was largely lost to
             saltwater intrusion.    Without the annual flooding, soil fertility is dropping
             as well.

             SEA DIKES: THE END@F THE NATURAL DELTA
                   Whether caused by dams, river dikes, or the natural consequences of sea
             level rise, erosion and flooding may lead officials to conclude that it is
             necessary to completely protect the delta with dikes and to place it under
             artificial drainage. That is, they may decide that it is no longer desirable
             for the area to be a delta. In many cases, the complete cultivation of an area
             may have effectively accomplished this transition anyway.

                                                      226










                                                                                         Titus


                 Nevertheless, in Louisiana and other deltas with a mix of natural wetlands
            and reclaimed lowlands, the environmental implications of such a decision would
            be profound. Although it would be possible to maintain freshwater wetlands for
            waterfowl, the saltwater wetlands would be lost, and the fisheries would shrink
            to a "shell" of their former productivity.

                 Although coastal protection is expensive, the loss of land may be even more
            expensive; consequently, even developing nations may be able to raise the
            necessary funds.    But it is an open question whether foreign donors would
            actually be doing these nations a favor if they provide the necessary assistance.

            1.   We are referring only to an equilibrium total area.      Deltas continually
            change course, so the shoreline position is never in equilibrium; but apart from
            the mathematical "catastrophes" of a change in river course, the total area
            generally tends toward an equilibrium. This argument is analogous to the Bruun
            rule approach: Continual changes in wave climate prevents the shore profile from
            ever remaining at equilibrium, the concept of an equilibrium allows one to
            calculate the average retreat of the shore for a rise in sea level or a given
            input of sediment to the beach.




























                                                   227










                      ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ENCLOSURE DAMS
                                      IN THE NETHERLANDS



                                           J.G. DE RONDE
                 Ministry of Transport and Public Works, Rijkswaterstaat
                                      Tidal Waters Division
                                           P.O. Box 20907
                                   The Hague, The Netherlands





           INTRODUCTION

                A big storm surge in 1916 caused great damage and land losses in the areas
           around the Zuider Zee.      As a result, the longest enclosure dam in the
           Netherlands, the one enclosing the former Zuider Zee, was built in 1932 (see
           Figure 1). An even more disastrous storm surge in 1953 was the catalyst for the
           building of the so-called Delta Works, which were finished in 1986 with the
           completion of the storm surge barrier of the Eastern Scheldt.         During the
           building of the Delta Works, three other estuaries were cut off from the sea.
           This paper discusses the impacts of these enclosures.


           THE IMPACTS OF THE ENCLOSURE OF THE FORMER ZUIDER ZEE

                The enclosure of the former Zuider Zee caused a big change in the tidal and
           storm conditions in the Wadden Sea area. The tidal range increased by roughly
           50% -- e.g., at Harlingen it increased from 1.25 to 1.80 m. In addition, the
           height of storm surges increased by roughly 20%.       This meant that besides
           building the dam itself, all the dikes in the western part of the Wadden Sea
           needed raising.

                Since the enclosure of the Zuider Zee, the morphological system required
           about 30 to 40 years to reach more or less a new equilibrium (Misdorp et al.,
           1989). After these 30 to 40 years, the changes have become smaller. To reach
           a real equilibrium will probably take more than 100 years. Near the dam, the
           currents decreased. But in other areas of the Wadden Sea, and especially in the
           tidal inlets between the islands, the currents and tidal volumes increased,
           causing an unbalance in the morphology of the area. The tidal gullies near the
           dam have been filled up by sediments, while the cross-sectional areas of the




                                                  229









             Environmental Implications







                                                          C=,;=

                                                 dOWADDE
                                                    SEA




                                                    -YSSEL    FORMER
                                                      LAK      ZUIDER SEA






                                                                         VXX

                                                         Rhine

                                                      Meuse
                                                             4@r





                                                    ++
                              0        50       10,Okm        X






             Figure 1.   Map of the Netherlands showing the former Zuider Zee, now enclosed
             and called the Wsel Lake.


             tidal inlets have increased by about 15-20%. Due to this morphological change,
             the tidal system in its turn has been changing as well, causing an extra increase
             of the tidal range  of about 5% over the last 50 years (Misdorp et al., 1989).

                  The enclosure  and the increase in tidal range caused the loss of intertidal
             and salt marsh area (about 1000 hectares of salt marsh were lost), which affected
             the ecology of the area. In the long run, a small increase of intertidal and
             marsh area may be   expected (Dijkema, 1987).    On the inside of the dam, the
             impacts were greatest: a large salt intertidal system changed into a freshwater
             lake. The largest negative impact was felt by the fishermen, who lost their
             fishing grounds.

                                                    230










                                                                                   De Ronde

           THE IMPACT OF THE DELTA WORKS

                The impacts on Zeeland due to the Delta Works will be discussed in relation
           to the water system going from north to south (see Figure 2). The impacts of
           the storm surge barrier on the Hollansche IJssel will not be discussed; they may
           be neglected. The Western Scheldt is not included because, owing to shipping
           to Antwerp, this estuary will remain open.

           The Haringvliet

                This water system has been enclosed with a huge sluice complex. During high
           discharges of the Rhine and Meuse Rivers, most of the water has to be discharged
           via the Haringvliet to the North Sea. The system changed from a brackish tidal
           estuary to a more or less stagnant freshwater lake. The present tidal range is
           less than 20 cm; greater water level variations are caused by high river
           discharges.

                At present, an unforeseen impact has given cause for great concern. During
           the planning of the Delta Works, pollution was not yet of much concern. However,
           today, sediments of the Rhine, strongly polluted with heavy metals, largely
           settle on the bottom of the Haringvliet.     Plans are being developed to clear
           these sediments at huge costs. However, this effort will be useful only if the
           river's future sediments become cleaner as well.



                                                         ROTTERDAM
                                                         NEW WATERWAY



                              HARINGVLIET SLUICES


                           BROUWERS DAM    09




                     STORM -
                     SURGE BARRIER

                                                               FRESH WATER









                                   SC






           Figure 2. Map of  the delta  area of the Netherlands.

                                                  231









             Environmental Implications

                  This unforeseen problem would not have occurred if the Haringvliet had
             remained open; the sediments would have been transported into the North Sea and
             would have settled in sedimentary areas. At present, officials are discussing
             reopening the sluices, and closing them only during a storm surge.       Owing to
             these pollution problems, the impact of the enclosure on ecology is rather large,
             and the system was more valuable in an ecological sense in the past.

             The Grevelingen

                  The Grevelingen Lake was planned to be a freshwater lake after enclosure
             to supply freshwater to the agricultural areas of the islands north and south
             of it. At the time the dam was completed (1972), the ecological value of such
             a freshwater lake as compared with that of a saltwater lake already was
             questioned, and the lake was temporarily left marine. Despite a heavy protest
             from the farmers, it was decided, many years later, to leave the lake marine.

                  In the beginning, seawater was let in and out only through sluices in the
             Brouwers Dam on the sea side of the lake. It appeared that this strategy caused
             stratification, accompanied by anoxia.    This unforeseen problem was solved by
             making another sluice on the eastern end of the lake. Now seawater can be taken
             in from the Eastern Scheldt and can be discharged via the other sluices to the
             North Sea. With this strategy, stratification no longer occurs. Today, the lake
             has a very high ecological value due to the rarity of an unpolluted, clean,
             saltwater lake. The lake enjoys a great number of different species of birds,
             fish, plants, and especially seagrasses (Zostera). Even the economic value of
             the lake is important because of high production of oysters and mussels, which
             was not expected at all.

             The Eastern Scheldt

                  In 1958, part of the plan for the Delta Works was to separate the Eastern
             Scheldt completely from the sea and to make a freshwater lake of it. After the
             closure of the Haringvliet and Grevelingen in 1972, the political pressure to
             preserve the Eastern Scheldt as a marine environment grew so strong that the
             Dutch government ordered a further study. The study advised against closing the
             Eastern Scheldt, and in 1976 the government decided to build a storm-surge
             barrier, which was completed in 1986. To preserve the valuable ecosystem and
             the oyster and mussel nurseries in the area and to reduce the length of sea dikes
             by 150 km, the government decided to spend an additional 2 billion guilders (I
             billion U.S. dollars) on the Delta Plan.

                  Still, the storm-surge barrier together with the necessary extra enclosure
             dams at the end of the estuary had some impacts on the environment. The tidal
             range in the estuary decreased by 10-15% (the average tidal range is about 3 m).
             The tidal volume decreased about 30%. Because of the extra enclosure dams and
             the decrease in tidal range, roughly 30% (6,400 hectares) of the intertidal areas
             and 65% (1,150 hectares) of the salt marsh areas were lost. Of the remaining
             intertidal areas (11,000 hectares), another 1,400 hectares will be lost in the
             next 30 years, as a result of the morphological changes caused by reduction of
             the tides (Kohsiek et al., 1987).

                                                    232










                                                                                        De Ronde


                These losses of intertidal and salt marsh areas have destroyed a large
           feeding area for birds. Up until now, the numbers of birds have not decreased.
           Although the birds can move to another place like the Western Scheldt, they have
           to stay in the delta area. What will happen in the long run is not known. In
           contrast, the mussel nurseries were able to move to other areas and production
           remained the same. In fact, future production might even increase because of
           lower water velocities.

           Lake Veerse

                The first estuary to be enclosed was the smallest one (Lake Veerse in 1961).
           The plan was to make it a freshwater lake that would be flushed through with
           freshwater via a fresh Eastern Scheldt.

                At present, with a saltwater regime in the Eastern Scheldt, the water in
           Lake Veerse is still brackish, with a rather low ecological value. As a water
           supply for agriculture, the salt concentration of the water is too high. At the
           moment, the possibility of making the lake saltwater again is being discussed.
           To get a healthy saltwater ecological system, the lake needs to be flushed with
           saltwater (a lesson learned from the Grevelingen lake).            To make flushing
           possible, a sluice has to be built in the Veerse Dam.            Up until now, this
           decision has not been made.

           The Outer Delta Area

                The impacts of the enclosures on the sea side of the delta are mainly
           morphological. Tidal ranges and storm surge levels increased only locally near
           the enclosures. Near the Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier, the level of a
           design storm surge, with a return time of 4,000 years, is increased by about 40
           Cm.   At greater distances (more than 30 km), changes are less than a few
           centimeters.

                The morphological changes are quite noticeable, especially in front of the
           Grevelingen and Haringvliet, because of the changing tidal currents (Kohsiek,
           1988).   Along the shore, large sandbars developed, which started to migrate
           landward and to increase in height.      After about 10 years, the height of the
           sandbars reached the intertidal zone, after which they stabilized at about -0.5
           m below mean sea level.

                The further development of this area into a more lagoon-like system has been
           predicted by some experts. We must wait and see whether this will be the case,
           and if so, how long it will take.


           BIBLIOGRAPHY

           Dijkema, K.S. 1987. Changes in salt-marsh area in the Netherlands Wadden Sea
           after 1600. In: Vegetation Between Land and Sea. A.H.L. Huiskes et al., eds.
           Amsterdam: Dr. W. Junk Publishers.

                                                    233








             Environmental Implications


             Kohsiek, L.H.M., J.P.M. Mulder, T. Louters, and F. Berben.                  1987.     Be
             Oosterschelde naar een nieuw onderwaterlandschap.          GWAO 87.029.     The Hague:
             Rijkswaterstaat, Tidal Waters Division (in Dutch).

             Kohsiek, L.H.M. 1988. Reworking of former ebb-tidal deltas into large longshore
             bars following the artificial closure of tidal inlets in the southwest of the
             Netherlands.    In:   Tide-Influenced Sedimentary Environments and Facies.          P.L.
             de Boer et al., eds. -Reidel Publishing Company.

             Misdorp, R., F. Steyaert, J.G. de Ronde, and F. Hallie.             1989.    Monitoring
             Morphological Developments of the Western part of the Dutch Wadden Sea.
             Proceedings of the 6th International Wadden Sea Symposium List/Sylt (in press).


































                                                       234






















               LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL
                     IMPLICATIONS











                         INTERNATIONAL LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF
                     COASTAL ADJUSTMENTS UNDER SEA LEVEL RISE:
                         ACTIVE OR PASSIVE POLICY RESPONSES?



                                DAVID FREESTONE and JOHN PETHICK
                          Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies
                                         University of Hull
                                        Hull, United Kingdom






            ABSTRACT

                 A rise in sea level would inundate lowlands, marshes, and mangroves, alter
            erosion processes, and, in some areas, change tidal ranges. This paper examines
            the legal issues resulting from these impacts, which include the effect of tidal
            changes on the delimitation of coastal and maritime zones resulting from changes
            in high tide (for coastal zone jurisdiction) and low tide lines (for maritime
            zone baselines) and the implication of inundation of coastal areas.       Various
            active and passive strategies are compared in light of case studies of coastal
            zone legislation and the law of the sea regime.

                 The paper also considers the international law implications of particular
            national strategies -- such as building sea walls -- which are likely to
            exacerbate the impacts on neighboring states, and considers the role of
            international institutions in the coordination of national responses.

                 The paper concludes with an assessment of the active or passive policy
            approaches for managing. Certain changes may best be met with inactivity (the
            passive approach), while others will require immediate action and coordination
            (the active approach).


            INTRODUCTION

                 In a workshop on policy options for coastal management in response to sea
            level rise, there must be an inevitable tendency to concentrate on national
            options and, in a legal context, national law.      The purpose of this paper,
            however, is to explore some of the implications     under international law of
            climate change and sea level rise and to outline    a number of restraints that
            international law imposes or might impose on the range of policy options
            available and the possible role it might play in the coordination of options.


                                                   237









             Lega7-and Institutiona7 Imp7ications


                   Two main themes emerge.     The first is the problem of maritime boundaries
             that are defined on the assumption of a stationary coastline. The necessity for
             their redefinition during a period of rapidly rising sea level requires careful
             consideration. The second theme concerns the management difficulties that will
             occur when coastlines change. Their management will require cooperative efforts
             internationally as well as intranationally. For both sets of problems, there
             are two distinct approaches: (1) take a passive approach and merely react to
             the changes as they are imposed upon our coasts, or (2) take a pro-active stance
             and consider how to anticipate and counter the most damaging of the changes about
             to take pl ace.     The paper concludes with a consideration of the extent of
             international law obligations to cooperate in the face of rising sea levels.


             SEA LEVEL RISE AND MARITIME BOUNDARIES

                   The first and most obvious effect that sea level rise will have is on high-
              and low-water marks (HWMs and LWMs). Both of these may have legal significance,
             but under international law, the LWM has particular significance. Article 5 of
             the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention' (LOSQ, which is taken to represent customary
             international law on the subject provides that:

                      the normal baseline for measuring the breadth of the territorial
                       i s the 1 ow water 1 i ne al ong the coast as marked on 1 arge scal e
                   charts officially recognized by the coastal state.

                   This baseline may depart from the low-water mark for a number of reasons
             (the  presence of bays, deeply indented coastlines, fringes of islands, etc.),
             but the significance of the baseline is that the seaward limit of other maritime
             zones are measured from it.' The use of the low-water mark generally ensures
             that the maximum maritime area is included within the zone.             By contrast,
             national laws on coastal zone jurisdiction vary, but in the United Kingdom and
             many other common law states, the high-water mark is generally taken to
             represent the seaward limit of the jurisdiction of local authorities.' Although
             the intertidal regions is still part of the state, in the UK this generally
             comes under the jurisdiction of the Crown Commissioners.

                   Crudely put, rises, or indeed any changes, in sea level that affect high-
             and low-water marks will obviously have a "knock-on" effect on the measurement
             of jurisdictional zones.     If the low-water mark advances landward, then because


                   'UN Doc A/CONF, 62/122; 21 International Legal Materials (ILM) 1261 (1982)

                   2i e., territorial sea, Article 3 LOSC; contiguous zone, Article 33(2);
             exclusive economic zone, Article 57; and in some situations even the continental
             shelf, Article 76(l).

                   30ther systems, for example Belgium, use the LWM as the limit of their local
             jurisdictions.

                                                      238











                                                                      Freestone and Pethick

           all maritime zones are measured from that baseline, the outward limits of
           maritime zones will similarly move landward, and the coastal state's maritime
           zone limits will shrink proportionately. Where a broad coastline transgresses
           rapidly, as in the case of areas of Bangladesh being eroded at up to 200 m per
           year (Stoddart and Pethick, 1984), the cumulative effect could be quite
           substantial: in this case, over 60 km' per year of the maritime zones. In fact
           Article 7(2) LOSC contains  a provision -- derived from the proposal initiated
           by Bangladesh, which was    concerned by the particular problems of constant
           erosion and deposition at the mouth of the Brahmaputra      4 __  permitting, in
           restricted circumstances, a straight baseline to be maintained, notwithstanding
           the movement of the actual coast:

                Where because of the presence of a delta and other natural conditions
                the coastline is highly unstable, the appropriate points [i.e., for
                straight baselines] may be selected along the furthest seaward extent
                of the low-water line and, notwithstanding the subsequent regression
                [sic) of the low-water line, the straight baseline shall remain
                effective until changed by the coastal state in accordance with this
                Convention.

                Although, as Prescott (1989) points out, this was drafted for specific
           circumstances, there is a risk that in the context of sea level rise it will be
           used more widely than is legitimate under the LOSC regime.

                Baseline movement will not normally (see Article 76 LOSC) affect the limit
           of continental shelf claims that may extend to the edge of a continental margin.
           However, it could have important economic effects on equidistance lines, which
           may be significant in areas where boundaries have still to be settled, in that
           hydrocarbon resources may move over a median line.        It may also mean the
           inundation of small islets or rocks that are currently used, or claimed, as
           basepoints for maritime zones, such as the tiny islet of Aves in the eastern
           Caribbean basin (see Freestone, 1989). Although the coral around atoll islands
           might be able to keep pace with a gradual rise in sea level, it is unlikely that
           the atoll islands themselves would receive enough sediment to keep pace,
           although other atoll islands might be created.

           Obstacles to Defining Maritime Boundaries

                Once signed, maritime boundary agreements belong to that class of treaty
           whose  validity   is  not   affected  by   subsequent   fundamental  changes    in
           circumstances.' Nevertheless, some treaties do use moving concepts, such as the




                4A/CONF/62/C2/L7

                '1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 8 ILM 679 (1969) Article
           62(2)(a).

                                                  239









             Legal and Institutional Implications
             thalweg,' which may be considerably affected.     In the more than 300 maritime
             areas where boundaries have yet to be agreed on (Blake, 1987), changes in
             baselines could have a significant effect on the negotiating position of the
             parties.  The parties are still influenced by equidistance lines, even though
             they are enjoined by the LOSC Articles 74 and 83 simply to reach "an equitable
             solution."

                  The horizontal magnitude of baseline changes, of course, will depend
             initially upon the slope of the nearshore zone (Aurrecoechea and Pethick, 1986).
             The North Sea -- where all the seabed boundaries have been agreed -- presents
             an interesting theoretical model of possible movements of baselines and
             equidistance lines.    In the case of nations surrounding the North Sea, such
             nearshore slopes can vary over wide ranges. Thus, the steep nearshore slopes
             of Norway and Scotland contrast with those of the Wash embayment in eastern
             England, where the nearshore slopes of 1:5000 mean that a 1-m rise in sea level
             would shift the low-tide mark 5 km toward the present coastline of the United
             Kingdom. Assuming a conservative average sea level rise of I mm per year, this
             means a potential landward movement of the low-water mark of 5 m per year. Such
             a rapidly changing coastline creates major problems in the definition of the
             maritime boundary.   It is clearly impossible to react continuously to such a
             rapid movement of the natural boundary. A form of episodic adjustment of the
             legal boundary to the natural movement of the coast again poses many problems,
             including the most difficult one of predicting the future development of that
             rate of sea level rise. Ignoring the departure of the low-water mark from the
             legal baseline -- which is therefore regarded as fixed before sea level rise
             -- is a possibility that may be welcomed by nations that would   lose territorial
             areas as a consequence, but not by those that may gain areas.

                  The possibility of an unequal or asymmetric shift in the position of the
             equidistance line, so that some nations lose while others may gain territorial
             advantage, is one that must be considered carefully.      In the case of nations
             facing each other across an intervening sea, such an outcome is quite feasible.
             Thus, in the southern North Sea, nearshore slopes on the western seaboard, such
             as those extending seaward from the mouth of the Thames, can be as low as
             1:2000, while those on the eastern seaboard are steeper, 1:1000 off the Ooster
             Schelde, for example.    In this case, the shift in the baselines on opposite
             coastlines due to a rise in sea level would be asymmetric and would cause a
             shift of the true equidistance line toward the coast of the United Kingdom.

                  It must be realized, nevertheless, that such rigidly geometric calculations
             do not necessarily apply to the dynamic shoreline under a rising sea level. The
             parallel movements of low tide and high tide, for example, are possible only if
             no sediment moves and if tidal range itself remains constant.             Sediment
             redistribution under a rising sea level is discussed later in this paper, but
             here we may examine the complexities introduced into predictions of baseline
             movement due to changes in tidal range produced by an increase in water depth.


                  'A possibly controversial example would be the 1975 Iran/Iraq treaty on the
             Sh'at al Arab.

                                                    240









                                                                           Freestone and Pethick

            In the North Sea, for example, the slight increase in'sea level over the past
            20 years may have been responsible for the observed increase in tidal range on
            the coast of Germany, as shown by the Cuxhaven tidal gauge.          Tidal range at a
            shoreline is related to distance from the "amphidromic" point of the. tidal
            system.    I t may  be that as sea level increases in the North Sea, so the
            amphidromic point shifts slightly toward the west, which would cause a decrease
            in tidal range on   the coast of the United Kingdom and a commensurate increase
            on the coast of     the Federal Republic of Germany.         The observed change at
            Cuxhaven over the past 20 years has been on the order of a 30-cm increase in
            tidal range. The magnitude of this change is greater than that of the sea level
            rise, and thus movement of the low-water mark on this coast may actually be
            seaward under a rising sea level while, on the toast of the United Kingdom, low
            water would move more rapidly landward than mean water level.

            Policy Options for Maritime Boundaries

                 Such discrepancies in the movement of the low-water mark boundary under a
            rising sea level may lead to a move for redelineation of baselines -- a matter
            primarily for the coastal state (see Article 5, above).'          Prescott (1989) has
            pointed out that this might present two policy options: (1) the active option
            -- continuously updating the charts, and (2) the passive option -- leaving the
            charts alone.     Apart from the expense of the active option, significant
            particularly for small developing countries (who might be the most affected
            relatively), such action might be seen as the unilateral abrogation of existing
            maritime areas, and hence, might be politically undesirable.              The passive
            option, however, is dangerous.        As we have seen, international law simply
            requires that the low-water mark be marked on "large scale charts officially
            recognized by the coastal State."         There is no requirement that these be
            specifically produced for baseline delineation -- and, indeed, they are not.
            The charts used are designed primarily for navigation.            Hence, charts left
            unchanged    for   political    reasons    at   a   time   when   important     coastal
            geomorphological change's are under way could be extremely hazardous.            Or we
            could see the widespread evolution of baseline maps (similar to those produced
            by archipelagic states) simply marking the low-water mark, which is then omitted
            from other charts.     Prescott (1985) has already indicated the degree to which
            Article 7 LOSC has been abused by state practices; sea level rise could
            exacerbate this divisive tendency.


            COASTLINE ADJUSTMENTS TO SEA LEVEL CHANGE

                 The relative stability of sea level over the past few hundred years has
            led to a belief in the permanence of the coastlines of the world.            Acting on
            such an assumption, people have developed a complex physical and institutional
            infrastructure which will have to be reappraised in view of the predicted sea
            level rise. In this section, we examine two aspects of this reappraisal.


                 'Apart from delineation of the outer edge of the continental margin (which
            for those bound by the LOSC regime may require some exchange with the Commission
            established under Article 76(8)).

                                                      241








             Legal and Institutional Implications

                  First, the role of the coast as a physical buffer between land and sea has
             resulted in an equilibrium configuration to which we have in turn adjusted. Sea
             level rise will initiate a series of changes that will"eVentually lead to the
             attainment of a new equilibrium -- but only if we are cipable of allowing such
             changes to take place. The difficulties this may pose'for our industrial and
             social infrastructure and the international cooperation   heeded to allow changes
             across political boundaries are discussed.

                  Second, we examine the problems facing our Use        of the coast for its
             intrinsic value -- for its ecological and recreational.`si@nificance. Here the
             complex existing network of international obligations establishing nature
             reserves will need to be borne in mind when responding to   changes and losses of
             habitat under a rising sea level.

             Physical Factors

                  The response of the coastline to sea level changes     is  not passive.    The
             coast is a dynamic landform that in most cases has achieved 'a form of quasi-
             equilibrium with its wave and current environment. Changes' in this wave climate
             or variations in nearshore currents introduced by new,warter depths mean that the
             equilibrium is destroyed and that nature will initiate 'adjustments that will
             eventually reattain the equilibrium.     Although the range of geomorphological
             adjustments to sea level rise may be extremely wide, we'may consider them here
             under two headings: vertical adjustments and horizontal @adjustments.

             Vertical Adjustments: The Coastal Profile

                  In the simplest case of a rise in mean sea ' level accompanied by a
             commensurate rise in the high- and low-water marks, theire-i's some agreement that
             the equilibrium shoreline that existed before the    rise will move landward and
             upward, thus keeping pace with the rise in mean water'level .@ Such a vertical
             translation in profile was predicted by Bruun (1962); and the hypothesis that
             erosion of the upper shoreline will be accompanied by deposition of the eroded
             sediment in the lower shore is now known as the Bruun' Rule (Figure 1).





                                            too level after rise
                         EROSION



                                                                           sea b*d of ter
                                                                ePOSITION:.:., sea loveirise

                                                  Initial sea bed






             Figure 1. Adjustments of the vertical shore profile to sea level rise (after
             Bruun, 1962). (See Titus, Problem Identification for additional discussion.)
                                                     242











                                                                      Freestone and Pethick

               Although many authorities have questioned the details of the hypothesis
          (e.g., Dean, 1987), the general pattern of a shoreline keeping pace with sea
          level rise is a reasonable one. It does depend, however, on the free exchange
          of sediment between upper erosion and lower deposition zones. As Pethick (1989)
          has pointed out, such a free interchange will be actively suppressed by local
          attempts to prevent upper shoreline erosion.         Bulkheads and seawalls will
          prevent sediment being made available for readjustments of the shore, and thus
          a state of permanent disequilibrium will be forced on the shore profile.

          Horizontal Adjustments: The Coastal Plain

               A more complex and as yet unexplored aspect of coastal response to sea
          level rise is the tendency for coasts to adjust their plan or horizontal
          configuration  to the new water level.     These horizontal adjustments will be
          caused by the re-orientation of the wave    approach angles at the shore due to a
          change in wave refraction. Waves refract    or bend in shallow water so that their
          crests tend to become parallel to the bottom contours. The refracted wave crest
          then meets the  shore at a more or less oblique angle which sets up a longshore
          current whose   velocity is directly proportional to the wave approach angle.
          Such currents create longshore sediment movements along the coast, which cause
          adjustments in its orientation. An equilibrium is eventually reached when the
          shore becomes  parallel to the refracted wave crests (for example, see Komar,
          1976).

               An increase in mean water depth caused by sea level rise will disturb this
          longshore equilibrium. Waves will begin to retract closer to the shore in the
          deeper water conditions and will meet the shore at an increased angle.         This
          will increase the velocity of the longshore current and set up movements of
          sediment that eventually will alter the coastline's orientation and thus
          establish a new equilibrium. The horizontal movement of sediment here can be
          seen as directly analogous to the vertical movement of sediment described above
          for the Bruun Rule. The difference from the point of view of policy adoption,
          however, is that such horizontal movements of sediment may occur across national
          boundaries, whereas the vertical movements are confined to local jurisdictions.

          International Implications

               Such vertical and horizontal changes in the coastline must be taken into
          account in any measured response to the problem of rising sea level.         It is
          important for national authorities. When developing their policy responses to
          such rises, national authorities need to understand that they should not make
          their decisions in isolation. In areas such as the southern North Sea or East
          Africa, where a number of states lie opposite or adjacent to each other with
          coastal frontages on a single sea, the strategy adopted by one state may have
          a considerable impact on neighboring states. Indeed, some policy options may
          even exacerbate the problems of neighbors.

               The example of the Fresian Island coast of the southern North Sea may be
          cited here to illustrate the possible problems.       This coast cuts across the
          national boundary between the Netherlands and Germany. Figure 2 demonstrates

                                                  243









                       Legal and Institutional Implications



                                North Wesierly wave,
                                6 soc period
                                - - -   wave refraction    under
                                        present sea level                                                                      4if-
                                        wave refraction assurning
                                        a 4-3m rise in sea level


                                  ADMIRALTY CHART
                                      SATHYMETRY

                                          below L.W. M.
                                          L, W. PA. - 10 rn







                                                                                                                                             A.  Elbe




                                                                                                                      . ..........
                                                                           . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

                                                                              .....       Coastal cUrr nt:
                                                                                                           1.1 M/s
                                                                                          sent  velocity
                                                                                       pre
                                                                                       assum
                                                                                             ing+3m rise    in        U.9;vn
                                                                                       Soo level velocity 1.96M S


                                                                                                                                Cz

                                                                                     A;

                                                                                     +                           G E R M           A N Y
                                            NETHERLANDS                              +


                                                                                                                                    0              30

                                                                                                                                            km



                       Figure 2.           Changes in wave refraction and coastal longshore currents on the
                       Fresian Island coast due to a sea level rise.


                       that wave refraction in the new water depth will be less marked than previously,
                       so that wave approach angle at the shore will be increased. The result will be
                       a dramatic increase in longshore velocity. A 3-m-high wave, for example, would
                       generate a current of I m/s at present, but this would be increased to 1.9 m/s
                       under the new sea level regime. Figure 2 indicates that the effect would be to
                       increase sediment transport eastward along the coast of the Netherlands toward
                       the Federal Republic of Germany. These sediments, derived from erosion of the
                       foreshore of the Netherlands, would accumulate along the German coast between
                       the Elbe and Weser Rivers, eventually causing a reorientation of the whole
                       coastline and equilibrium. The immediate response, however, would be the loss
                       of the foreshore of the extremely vulnerable Dutch Fresian Islands, whereas the
                       marshes and mudflats of the Jade Bay and the Weser Estuary would be provided
                       with an abundance of sediment and would thus perhaps manage to accrete in pace
                       with the rising sea level (see also Nummedal and Penland, 1981).                                                       In such a

                                                                                        244











                                                                        Freestone and Pethick

           case, were the Netherlands to respond by strengthening shoreline def            enses
           against coastal erosion and by actively preventing the eastward movement of
           sediment using groins or similar constructions, such action would both deny the
           Federal Republic of Germany of sediment necessary for the maintenance of the
           country's coastal marshes under a rising sea level and, more important, in the
           long term would prevent any return of the whole coastline to an equilibrium
           orientation.

                Similar arguments apply to many of the coastlines of the world. An example
           recently investigated by one of the authors (JP) is that of the East African
           coast, which cuts across a number of national boundaries. Advance warning of
           a major reorientation of this coast may be seen in the Rufiji Delta in Tanzania,
           where the deltaic sediments are extremely sensitive to any change in wave
           climate, and where a counter-clockwise swing of the entire coast has already
           resulted in the erosion of up to 10 km of mangrove in the north of the delta and
           the deposition of a 2-km-wide margin of mangrove in the south. Such
           a coastal change may be an indicator of a more general change along this East
           African coast, with profound implications for the neighboring states. Should
           erosion of cliff coasts here be allowed to continue so that the more vulnerable
           low-lying mangrove coast can benefit from the input of sediments derived from
           this erosion and perhaps keep its head       above water?    Or would it be more
           economic to prevent erosion of the cliff areas and allow the mangrove regions
           to drown?    Such decisions may only be      taken in the light of a much more
           extensive knowledge of the interactions between erosive and depositional areas
           of the coastline and also of the relative economic outcome of either policy.

           Intranational Implications

                The international implications of such coastline reorientations are matched
           by intranational ones. Thus, along the coast of eastern England there has been
           a recent attempt to protect the Humberside cliffed coast from erosion that has
           continued at a rate of 2 m per year throughout historic times. This erosion,
           however, is one of the major sources of sediment in the southern North Sea
           (McCave, 1987). As such, it is vital to saltmarsh areas lying immediately south
           of the Humberside coast in the Wash. Denied such sediments, these salt marshes
           would be unable to respond to sea level rise by accretion of their surfaces.
           Their loss would have profound implications to the stability of the sea
           embankments that lie immediately inland of the marshes and prevent enormous
           areas of East Anglia from flooding.

                Thus,   the  proposal   to   prevent   the  erosion   of   these   cliffs    has
           understandably met with some opposition from those responsible for preventing
           flooding in the Anglian region.     The problem, however, has perhaps even wider
           implications because resultant current directions in the southern North Sea
           indicate that sediment derived from the erosion of this section of the coast of
           eastern England feeds the pool of sediment in the North Sea. This sediment pool
           is then available for the maintenance of the Dutch and German salt marshes.        In
           the face of a rapidly rising sea level, any diminution of input into this
           sediment pool must be viewed with alarm by all nations bordering on the North
           Sea.

                                                   245










             Legal and Institutional Imp7ications


             Ecological Factors

                  The building of artificial defenses      w0uld.-have a radical effect on
             ecologically important intertidal areas*      mudflats, mangroves, and other
             wetlands, many of which are protected by international treaty as well as by
             national law. Defenses built landward of them would be highly likely to result
             in their loss, while to barricade them (an unlikely option in any event because
             of the cost) would entirely change their ecological character.
                  There now exists an increasingly sophisticated.ndtwork of wetland and other
             coastal areas protected by both national- law-. and international treaties      --
             e.g., the Ramsar, Bonn, and Berne Convenflons.apd other regional treaties. The
             wording of these conventions varies,.- "The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of
             International Importance especially as.Mildfowl. Habitat i 's purely hortatory in
             tone, simply requiring the parties to "promote* the establishment of reserves
             and inform an international commission about changes -in'the ecological character
             of listed sites (for a list of sites, see PANSAR., 1987)." The Bonn Convention
             of 19799 depends on the conclusion of further -agreements.     The 1979 European
             Berne Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Habitat," which
             came into force on June 1, 1982, Article'.4 requires contracting parties to:

                  take appropriate and necessary legislative and administrative measures
                  to ensure the conservation of habitats,. and 'the conservation of
                  endangered natural habitats (Article 4(1)) [as well as to give]
                  special attention to the protection of areas that are of importance
                  for migratory species [specified in the Annexes] and ire appropriately
                  situated in relation to migration 'routes, as wintering, staging,
                  feeding, and molting areas (Article 4(3)), .
                  Of particular interest to the matter in hand is the obligation on parties:

                  in their planning and development policy [to] have regard to the
                  conservation requirements of the areas protected... so as to avoid or
                  minimize as far as possible any deterioration of such areas (Article
                  4(2)).









                  8For text, see Lyster (1985) pp. 411-427.
                  9For text, see Lyster (1985) pp. 4216441.
                  "For text, see Lyster (1985) pp. 428,4410!.,

                                                    246











                                                                         Freestone and Pethick

                 Similar obligations are undertaken in other regional treaties." Among the
           most rigorous of these are the obligations of the 1979 EEC Directive on the
           Conservation of Wild Birds Council Directive    12:

                 to take measureg-to`preserv6, maintain, or re-establish a sufficient
                 diversity and area 'of,'fiabitats*for all species of wild birds naturally
                 occurring in their territories. -(Article 3(1))

                 Such measures woul'd`ibcl-ud6  not:only the establishment of protected areas,
           but  also "upkeep and"min"Ageme'nt in accordance with the ecological needs of
           habitats inside and outsIde the     protected zones (Article 3(2))."      This is no
           empty undertaking.    As we disc'Uss later in this paper, a case currently pending
           before the European   Court.'6f Justice concerns possible unlawful development of
           such  an area.
                 It seems  clear, 'iherefore, that ih.planning responses to sea level rise,
           national authorities (p'articularly,, but not exclusively, European authorities)
           wi 11 need to bear    in m1nd. their@ exi'sting binding legal obligations under
           international   law to ma6ta'in wildl-ife.habitats in coastal regions.
           Policy Options for CoAstal    Adjustments

                 The geomorphologi.cal adjustments to rising sea level outlined above
           indicate that an im_agfna't1ve* 'and cooperative management structure will be
           required in order to m1fi'imize the effects on coastal states.      Both active and
           passive policy options'are open to us.@

           An Active Response:      Bulkhead  Policy

                 The arguments and examples developed above show that in many cases the
           building of preventative bi@lkheads in the face of increased coastal erosion may
           have deleterious results., At A local level, they inhibit the vertical response
           of the coastal profile to the change in water level, thus maintaining the coast
           in a state of disequilibri  'um with the co 'nsequent necessity for maintenance of
           expensive shore defensds and drainage' provision.       At an international level,
           unilateral action by one state may have considerable effects on it neighbors.
           For example, a bulkhead policy by one state that seeks to preserve the current
           coastal status quo may seriously exacerbate the problems faced by adjacent
           neighbors.



                 "1982 Geneva Protocol concerning Mediterranean Specially Protected Areas
           -- see Article 3, for text see Sand (1988) pp. 37-44; 1985 Nairobi Protocol
           concerning Protected Areas and Wild Fauna and Flora in the Eastern African region
            - see Article 8, for text see Sand (1989), pp. 171-184; and the Draft Protocol
           on Specially Protected Areas and Wildlife in the Wilder Caribbean -- due for
           final consideration in January 1990.-
                 12 79/409/EEC, Official Journal. L10.3/1 (25.4.79)

                                                     247









            -Legal and Institutional Implications

                   Accretion and erosion are both well-known concepts in national and
              international law.    Being natural processes, they do not per se give rise to
              legal claims. However, interference with natural processes may well do so. At
              a national level, actions will depend on the national legal system.        In English
              law, although the position is unclear, it can be argued that by analogy with
              river siltation cases, action by one authority in building a barrage that
              deprives another area of sediment could give rise to liability (see Paulden,
              1986).   However, again in English law, an action against a public authority
              under public nuisance would normally be covered by the statutory defense.
                                                                                        13
              Although in Tate and Lyle v. GLC and Port of London Authority (1983), the House
              of Lords said, in finding the defendants liable in public nuisance for building
              a ferry terminal that caused siltation of the plaintiff's jetty, that statutory
              operations must in general be conducted "with all reasonable regard and care for
              the interests of other persons."

                   The construction of bulkheads or sea embankments would have two major
              effects on ecologically sensitive wetland areas, as discussed above. First, if
              placed to prevent erosion of the upper shore, the bulkheads would restrict
              sediment. movement across the shore profile so that the profile would fail to
              adjust to the new water 1 evel . The resul tant prof i 1 e woul d therefore be steeper
              than previously, and thus the ecologically important intertidal area would be
              diminished. Such foreshore steepening is already noticeable along the shore of
              eastern England (Anglian Water, 1988) and on the eastern seaboard of the United
              States (Leatherman, 1987). Second, the active policy of preventing erosion of
              cliff coastlines would deny the horizontal movement of sediments to the
              adjoining depositional wetlands, such as salt marshes and mangroves -- areas
              with extremely high ecological value.

                   It seems unlikely that states would seek or wish to denounce their
              obligations under wildlife treaties -- e.g., the Ramsar, Bonn, and Berne
              Conventions or other regional treaties. Their obligations to preserve habitat
              are important legal constraints on available policy. In a case pending before
              the European Court of Justice, the European Court Commission is impugning the
              Federal Republic of Germany for building dikes in two zones (Leybucht and
              Rysumer Nacken) that are considered as protected zones under the 1979 European
                                                              14
              Economic Community Directive on Wild Birds.         It is argued in this case that
              only "exceptional circumstances superior to the law" which endanger human life
              could justify work in these areas -- and even       that would have to be strictly
              necessary.    It seems clear that at a subregional level, the European Court
              Commission would be zealous to ensure that national strategies did not result
              in the loss of important habitat, and in their current form would be likely to
              maintain this position throughout the gradual changes that sea level rise would
              entail.




                   13[ 1983] 2 AC 509

                   14 79/409/EEC, OJ L103/ (25.4.79)

                                                       248











                                                                     Freestone and Pethick

          The Passive Response

               A passive response to sea level rise is one which would coincide with much
          of the current thinking of many coastal geomorphologists -- namely, that
          coastlines do find a natural equilibrium when left to themselves.     There are,
          however, several obstacles to implementing such an approach.

               Artificial Embankments and Reclamation.    First, a passive response would
          be entirely acceptable were it not for the artificial embankment and reclamation
          of large areas of the world's shorelines. In a completely natural system, it
          seems likely that existing intertidal areas or coastal wetlands would keep pace
          with sea level changes by continued accretion.      In the case of artificially
          protected reclaimed lands, this natural response is denied.        The "passive"
          response in this case would entail the abandonment of much low-lying coastal
          land areas, either to inundation or to controlled inundation by a series of low-
          lying banks.   Areas so inundated would then keep pace with sea level rise by
          natural accretion, always assuming that sufficient sediments are available from
          elsewhere in the coastal system to satisfy the imposed sediment demand. In some
          cases, this process may be accelerated by the introduction of sediment into the
          coastal system. Thus beach nourishment processes, widely used at present, may
          be supplemented with the artificial nourishment of intertidal mudflats and
          marshlands. Such active intervention in natural processes may be seen as a mid-
          way position between an active policy to prevent natural coastal response
          completely and a totally passive response that allows natural conditions to act
          unhindered.

               Degleted Biological Activity.     A second difficulty facing any passive
          response policy may also be mentioned here. The most vulnerable areas of the
          world's coastlines to sea level rise are the low-lying intertidal areas. These
          areas accrete fine sediments largely due to the presence of biological
          organisms, both animal and plant. Thus, coral reefs both reduce wave energy in
          the lagoon areas beyond and at the same time act as a source of sand size
          material necessary for the accretion of beaches and dunes in these lagoon areas.
          In mudflat areas, the existence of algae on the surface accelerates the
          accretion of fine-grained silts and clays, while in mangrove and salt marsh
          areas the presence of a vegetation cover creates the necessary conditions for
          the deposition of fine sediments. Consequently, the response of each of these
          coastal types to sea level rise depends on the presence of one type of organism
          or another.    Yet in many cases, such biological activity has already been
          removed or depleted by human activity, so that these coasts are not capable of
          responding to the new conditions.

               Coral reefs in the Caribbean and East Africa have been extensively damaged
          by dynamite used illegally for fishing, and by pollution and coral mining.
          Mangroves in many areas, such as in eastern Bangladesh (Stoddart and Pethick,
          1984), have been totally deforested, and salt marsh vegetation has been reduced
          by pollution and the extensive reclamation of such areas for agriculture,
          industry, and housing.    In these cases, the biologically impoverished coasts
          will require active intervention before they are able to respond naturally to
          sea level changes. The immediate suppression of coral reef damage, the planting

                                                 249










               Legal and Institutional Implications

               of mangrove species in tropical intertidal areas, and,J,4,e, protection of salt
               marsh areas against further pollution and reclamationA@@:all        ,.essential active
               measures needed before a so-called passive policy may.,,      e,-im'
                                                                                plemented.

                    Loss of Major Coastal Habitat.       Third, the ti.m.ing of a coastal response
               under such a passive policy may causd severe difficuflti,b.@._ Thus, the response
               of a coastline to rising sea level" may eventually,, be to Achieve sediment
                                                                        I . j , ,                              I
               redeployment by removing material from one area and 'O"positin it in another.
                                                                                   9
               But this interaction' may not be instantaneous.        The,: I,oss of a major area of
               coastal habitat without its immediate replacement,elsewhere can have economic,
               social, and ecological repercussions..
                    A clear example of these repercussions is given@'in predictions for the
               response to rising sea level, of the-n     'orth Norfolk coast of eastern England
               (Pethick,   1989)'.     This   coast   encompasses  .%-s6eral   nature   reserves    of
               international importance, comprised of sand dune and,salt marsh. Each reserve
               is separated from the other by int      .ervening strettfie'@s of beach that attract
               commercial recreationa'l activities.       An examination of the wave refraction
               pattern for the area    demonstrates that this alteration of beach and marsh is
               caused by the pattern   of wave foci along the shore (Figure 3).

                    A wave focus i s    created when a wave refraction pattern results in the
               concentration of wave   energy in one area of the coast. Such a concentration of
               energy is compensated   by the presence of a contiguous area of lower waves, and
               this pattern of high- and low-energy zones is re'sponsiblefor the beaches and
               marshes of the north Norfolk coast. Figure 3 demonstrates that, under a rising
               sea level, these wave foci will swing eastward along the coast, so that
               eventually the marsh areas of the National Nature Reserves will be replaced by
               high-energy beach deposits, and the thriving holiday-,beaches-of today will in
               turn be replaced by mudflat and marshland. Thus, the'tommercial and ecological
               coastal zones here will be interchanged, but the response will be gradual, with
               the beach areas gradually silting over and the nature reserves gradually being
               eroded away.

                    While this is happening the     response of both humans and wildlife to the
               gradual loss of their chosen habitat-'depends entirely on the rate at which the
               changes occur and the rate at which' they are able to modify their present
               behavioral patterns.     One outcome could well be the failure of both coastal
               users to synchronize with the changes imposed by'the coast, and the loss of both
               ecological and commercial activities on this co-astli'ne.

                    As well as these practical difficulties facing any passive      approach policy,
               there are many economic and legal issues involved.           Thus, a purely passive
               approach carried out in a developed zone where large areas of reclaimed
               marshland are present must involve the abandonment of these areas to the rising
               sea. Such an approach might reflect a cost-benefit analysis of the advantages
               of the value of low-lying arable lands against the open-ended cost of defending
               them.   New natural wetland areas would) be created to.-treplace those inundated
               ones. However, the problems with this approach-,areat-least twofold:


                                                        250










                                                                                                                    Freestone and Pethick


                                  A          PRESENT
                                             SEA LEVEL
                                           North Easterly wave.
                                           8 sec period

                                           wave refraction under
                                           present sea level
                                             ADMIRALTY CHART
                                              BATHYMETRY
                                                 il::11 below Sm
                                                     5 - 10 ITT






                                                                                         10W
                                                                                        it   U'- I                        3141kv.ey
                                                               rHE
                                                                                             NATION 14ATURE
                                                                                                RESERVE         NATIONAL NATURE
                                                            WASH                                                    RESERVE
                                                                                          RICREMIONAL    RECREATIONAL
                                                                                         KACH COAST      BEACH COAST






                                  B          SEA LEVEL                                                          oe
                                                 RISE
                                             North Easterly wave,
                                             8 sec period

                                             Wave refraction assuming
                                             a +3m rise in sea level


                                                                                                         X.








                                                                                       ;ij
                                                                                               cc I
                                                               rHE                                         4
                                                                                             NATIONAL NATURE
                                                             WASH                 M400606.      RIESHAN E        NATIONAL NATURE
                                                                                                                     RESERVE
                                                                                          *I!CQ ATIONAL   RUAGATIONAL
                                                                                          BEACN COAST     BEACM COAST



                                                                                          0                      20
                                                                                                                  I
                                                                                                    km


                   Figure 3.           Changes in wave fod'oft                   the    north Norfolk coast due to sea level
                   rise, showing implications for nature reserves and recreational areas.
                                                                                  461








            Legal and Institutional Implications

                 1.   It would be impossible to pursue such a policy without exceptions.
                      In any cost-benefit analysis, low-lying cities would have to be
                      defended. It would be politically impossible to abandon London or the
                      whole of the Netherlands.

                 2.   It requires cooperation to be successful.           It requires both
                      intranational (e.g., Federal Republic of Germany/The Netherlands) and
                      international (e.g., United Kingdom/The Netherlands) cooperation. In
                      order for a coastline to find its natural equilibrium, maximum
                      sediment mobility is necessary.     The necessary legal machinery to
                      enable cooperation among states to ensure such mobility must be
                      developed.

                 So, although this might be a passive policy in some respects, it is not a
            politically passive option. It would require considerable cooperation at both
            local and regional levels. The final question to be addressed, then, is whether
            international law imposes an obligation to cooperate in such a way.


            DOES INTERNATIONAL LAW REQUIRE COOPERATION?

                 Under classical international law, a state had complete and unchallengeable
            jurisdiction within its own territory.     However, it is now recognized that
            states must respect the rights of their neighbors -- for example, by behaving
            equitably in relation to shared resources (e.g., the Diversion of Water from the
            Meuse case") and by not permitting the escape of pollution that would damage its
            neighbor's territory (Trail Smelter Arbitration"). The principles of the 1972
            Stockholm Conference 17 declare that:

                 States have in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and
                 the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit
                 their own resources pursuant to their own environmental policies, and
                 the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction
                 or control do not cause damage to the environment of other states or
                 of the area beyond the limits of national Jurisdiction [italics
                 added].

                 In the light of a modern view of the interdependence of ecosystems and,
            indeed, of the world ecosystem, it seems widely agreed that international law
            does not permit actions that damage other states or "common areas." An example




                 "(1937) Netherlands v Belgium, PCIJ Reps, series A/B, No 70
                 16(1938/41), U.S. v Canada, 3 RIAA 1905

                 "'Report of the UN Conf on the Human Environment. UN Doc A/CONF, 48/14; 11
            ILM 1416 1972. Principle 21

                                                  252










                                                                        Freestone and Pethick

            of this is the Hnternational Law Commission's proposal" that massive marine
            pollution should be an "international crime" (Smith, 1988).

                 Any attempt to relate these developments to the novel problems posed by
            national responses to sea level rise must address the problem that the nature
            and potential scale of the issue has   no direct precedent. It seems clear that
            the full implications of the effects   of sea level rise have not yet been fully
            appreciated.    International lawyers are only just beginning to address the
            problems that this rise poses.         This does not mean that there is an
            international law vacuum, but simply   that the applicable principles are in the
            process of adaption and crystallization.       Al 1 that can be done here i s to
            suggest a number of approaches to analogous problems, which may shed some light
            on possible approaches.

                 Unfortunately, there are no direct analogies.      National laws may suggest
            a number of principles -- albeit different -- to the problem of state responses
            that exacerbate erosion and land loss in neighboring states.          However, the
            closest analogy of cross-boundary environmental damage appears to be with the
            problems of pollution where the behavior of one state affects the interests of
            others.   Actions for damages have tended to be restricted to cases of direct
            damage; the position is less clear with indirect damage.

                 Rather than considering liability for breach of obligations, however, it
            may be more positive to consider whether international law prohibits certain
            courses of action, or can require cooperation. Of considerable importance in
            this connection is the emergence in international environmental law of the
            Precautionary Principle, or the principle of precautionary action.              This
            principle is derived from national environmental law.         Gundling (in press)
            describes the principle as:

                 ... a more stringent form of preventative environmental policy. It is
                 more than the repair of damage or the prevention of risks.
                 Precautionary    action    requires   reduction    and   prevention    of
                 environmental impacts irrespective of [proven] risks.

                 The principle is accepted by the North Sea states in relation to marine
            pollution, and is included in the 1987 London Declaration on the Protection of
            the North Sea."' This year it was also accepted by the parties to the 1974 Paris



                 "For text see YB ILC, 1979, part II, page 90 and 1980, Part II, page 14,70.
            Article 19(3)(d) refers to "a serious breach of an international obligation of
            essential importance for the safeguarding and preservation of the human
            environment such as those prohibiting massive pollution of the atmosphere or of
            the seas."

                 "Second International Conference on the Protection of the North Sea,
            Ministerial Declaration, Nov 1987.     Reproduced (1988) 3 International Journal
            of Estuarine and Coastal Law, pp. 252-265.

                                                    253








             Legal and Institutional Implications

                                                                  20
             Convention on pollution from land-based sources.        While Gundling does not feel
             that it has yet emerged as a general norm of international law, he identifies
             its use in a number of important environmental documents, including the Ozone
             Layer Convention (1985 Vienna Convention    2' and 1987 Montreal Protocol  12) , as well
             as the 1972 Stockholm Declaration itsel     f2l , the 1982 UNEP Nairobi Declaration    24
             (stressing the necessity of environmental management and EIA as well as proper
             plannin? of all activities), and the 1982 UN General Assembly "World Charter of
             Nature"  5 (in which the principle is urged in relation inter alia to protection
             of habitat and planning).

                   While these are not strict treaty obligations applicable to the current
             problem, states that participated in creating these agreements must find it
             difficult to deny the validity of the principles. they set out.

                   In addition, Principle 21 of the 1972 Stockholm Declaration on the Human
             Environment (adopted by acclamation of 113 participating states) declared that:

                   States have... the   responsibility to ensure that activities within
                   their jurisdiction   or control do not cause damage to the environment
                   of other states ...

                   It does seem that, faced with a problem -- such as sea level rise -- in
             which a high degree of coordination and cooperation may be required to prevent
             unilateral actions exacerbating neighbors' erosion problems, that at' the very
             least states would stop arguing that this is a matter entirely within their own
             jurisdiction.

                   There are precedents in international law for obligations to cooperate or
             to negotiate in good faith. For example, in the field of natural resources law,
             and more particularly the emerging rules on exploitation of joint liquid and gas
             deposits, it is now argued that not only is "unconsented" exploitation of a
             joint liquid mineral deposit (in such a way as to damage the neighbor's right
             to exploit that deposit) illegal, but also that, as Lagoni (1979) argues, state
             practice:



                   20 Paris Commission (PARCOM) Recommendation 89/1 22 June 1989

                   `1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

                   221 987 Montreal Protocol to the Vienna Convention above.

                   23 See above note 17, Principles 2, 3, and 5.

                   24 Nairobi Declaration on the State of the World Wide Environment. 18 May
             1982, 21 ILM 676 (1982).

                   251 982 UN General Assembly Resolution on the World Charter for Nature, UN
             Doc A/RES/37/7, 9 Nov 1982, 22 ILM 455.

                                                       254











                                                                             Freestone and Pethick

                   has given rise to a customary rule of current international law. That
                   rule means that ... no state may exploit a common deposit of liquid
                   minerals before having negotiated the matter with the neighboring
                   state or states concerned.

                   Of course, this rule cannot be translated directly into environmental law.
             But it does demonstrate that cooperation can develop even in areas that have
             been traditionally regarded as close to states' vital interests -- hydrocarbon
             resources.

                   It is unclear whether there is an obligation for states under customary
             international law -- independent of treaty -- to cooperate in planning their
             responses to sea level rise. Nevertheless, this paper has sought to demonstrate
             that such an obligation is a necessary part of a measured and planned response.
             If the obligation to cooperate does not emerge through customary international
             law, it should be enshrined in treaty.


             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Aurrecoechea I., and J.S. Pethick.        1986.    The coastline:     its physical and
             legal definition. International Journal of Estuarine and Coastal Law 1:29-42.

             Anglian Water. 1988. The sea defense management study for the Anglian Region.
             Internal report. Sir William Halcrow & Partners.

             Blake G., ed. 1987. Maritime Boundaries and Ocean Resources. London: Croom
             Helm.

             Bruun P. 1962. Sea level rise as a cause of shore erosion. J. Waterways and
             Harbors Div. ASCE 88:117-130.

             Dean, R.G.    1987.   Coas tal sediment processes:     toward engineering solutions.
             In: Coastal Sediments 87. K. Kraus, ed. New York: American Society of Civil
             Engineers,    1. p. 1-24.

             Freestone, D. 1989. Maritime boundary delimitation in the eastern Caribbean.
             Proceedings of the 1989 International Boundary Research Unit. Conf. Durham UK

             Gundling L. (In Press).      The status in international law of the principle of
             precautionary action.        In:     The North Sea:        Perspectives on Regional
             Environmental Cooperation. D. Freestone and T. Ijlstra, eds. Martinus Nijhoff.

             Komar, P.     1976.   Beach Processes and Sedimentation.        Englewood Cliffs, NJ:
             Prentice Hall.
             Lagoni, R.    1979.   Oil and gas deposits across national frontiers.          Amer. J.
             Int. Law 73:215-243.

             Leatherman, S.     1987.   Beach and shoreface response to sea-level rise:         Ocean
             City Maryland, USA. Progress in Oceanography 18:139-149.

                                                        255









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             Lyster, S. 1985. International Wildlife Law. Grotius.

             McCave, I.N.    1987.   Fine sediment sources and sinks around the East Anglian
             Coast (UK). J. Geol. Soc. Lond. 144:149-152.

             Nummedal, D., and S. Penland. 1981. Sediment dispersal in Nordermeyor Segat,
             W. Germany.     Spec. Publ 5.     Liege, Belgium:      International. Association of
             Sedimentologists, pp. 187@200.

             Paulden, P. 1986. Ferry terminals as a public nuisance. International Journal
             of Estuarine and Coastal Law 1:70-74.

             Pethick, J. 1989. Waves of change: coastal response to sea level rise. Geog.
             Analysis 19:1-4.

             Pethick, J. 1989. Scolt Head Island and changes in wave refraction. In: The
             Effects of Sea Level on Sites of Conservation Value in Britain and North West
             Europe. T. Hollis, D. Thomas, and S. Heard, eds. World Wide Fund for Nature.

             Prescott, J.R.V. 1985. Maritime Political Boundaries of the World. Methuen.

             Prescott, J.R.V. 1989. The influence of rising sea levels on baselines from
             which national claims are measured.         Proceedings of the 1989 International
             Boundary Research Unit Conf. Durham UK.

             RAMSAR. 1987. Directory of Wetlands of International Importance. IUCN

             Sand, P.H. 1989. Marine Environmental Law in the United Nations Environmental
             Programme. Tycooly.

             Smith, B.D. 1988. State Responsibility and the Marine Environment. Oxford.

             Stoddart, D.R. and J.S. Pethick.        1984.    Environmental hazard and coastal
             reclamation:    problems and prospects in Bangladesh.        In:   Understanding the
             Green Revolution. T. Bayliss-Smith and E. Wanmali, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge
             University Press.















                                                      256










                 LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN MEXICO



                                      DIANA LUCERO PONCE NAVA
                                  International Law Coordinator
                                      Legal Adviser's Office
                                     Mexican Foreign Ministry
                                        Mexico City, Mexico





            ABSTRACT

                 In the search for adaptive options to sea level rise and other impacts of
            global warming, this paper analyzes the basis for environmental protection in
            the Mexican legal system and briefly looks at some aspects of international law.


            EVOLUTION OF MEXICAN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW

                 The evolution of environmental law in Mexico has followed the same course
            as international law.    The first 60 years of this century saw an effort by
            developing countries to assert sovereignty over their natural resources.        It
            was not until 1962 that the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution
            1803, which recognized "permanent sovereignty over natural resources." Although
            there were other resolutions, it was not until 1972 at the Stockholm Conference
            on Human Environment, that Principle 21 associated the concept of sovereignty
            over natural resources with the goal of conservation of the environment for the
            sake of future generations. Before then, environmental laws were more concerned
            with the "cleaning" and "reparation" of already polluted areas. Since then, the
            approach has been to relate the environment to the national welfare and
            development by providing rules for the exploration, exploitation, administration,
            and conservation of Mexico's natural resources.

                 Article 27 of the Federal Constitution of Mexico has been amended 24 times
            since the Constitution's enactment in 1917.        This considerable number of
            amendments reflects the evolution of the growing control of the Mexican State
            over its natural resources.    The current Article 27 establishes the property
            regi-me that determines the specific economic and social system of Mexico. It
            states that the Mexican territory belongs to the nation, and it establishes
            direct and eminent domain over all natural resources. Although the Constitution
            recognizes private property, it allows for the imposition of any conditions on
            such property required by the public interest.


                                                   257









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

                  The approximately 5,000 kilometers of Mexican coastline are not considered
             a unitary natural resource. For this reason, there is no single authority to
             manage them. Rather, they are managed on the basis of their different economic
             activities.

                  The federal Constitution of Mexico establishes the areas and activities
             that are subject to federal legislation. Any activity not expressly set within
             the federal rules is understood to be under the control of the local rules of
             states and municipalities.

             Mining and Exploitation of Fossil Fuels

                  The mining and exploitation of fossil fuels in Mexico are highly developed
             and account for one-tenth of the GNP. Oil and natural gas reserves, as well as
             salt mines, are located in coastal areas.       As mentioned above, the federal
             Constitution has established that the state has direct domain over -these
             resources. Generally, concessions may be made to nationals and foreigners for
             exploitation of mines, but not for exploitation of fossil fuels. The petroleum
             industry is managed by PEMEX, the largest enterprise in Latin America.           In
             compliance with environmental laws, PEMEX has undertaken some preventive and some
             corrective programs, but none that address the problem of global warming or sea
             level rise.

             Fishing

                  Fishing is another important federally regulated industry.             Fishing
             cooperatives dominate in the coastal area, especially on the west coast. Well-
             developed laws exist for the protection of the marine environment, but the impact
             of potential sea level rise caused by global warming is not currently addressed.

             Ports and Harbors

                  During 1985, Mexican ports handled 2,206,643 deadweight tons of commercial
             goods.  The Mexican Ministry for Communications and Transport spends a great
             amount of its budget on the construction and maintenance of ports, but there are
             no laws or programs providing for the prevention of damages from sea level rise.

             Tourism

                  Tourism is another profitable industry along the coast. Mexican beaches
             are recognized worldwide and bring approximately $2 billion (U.S. dollars)
             annually into the country.      In principle, tourism is a matter for local
             regulations.   However, the tourist industry involves a great deal of fore@ign
             investment, which is subject to federal rules.

                  Two aspects of foreign investment in tourist facilities are of particular
             interest. One is that local developers built tourist facilities 500 meters to
             one kilometer away from the beach. It was foreign investment that brought the

                                                    258










                                                                                   Ponce Nava

            concept of huge beachfront facilities to Mexico. Another interesting aspect is
            that the federal constitution prohibits foreign ownership of land for a 50-
            kilometer-wide belt along the coastline. Because of this, a legal device was
            created for foreign investment in the form of a trust. The trustee is always
            a national bank that holds possession of the land, and the foreign investor
            becomes a beneficiary for a period of 30 or more years.

                 Mexican law provides for state ownership and federal control of land
            reclaimed from the sea.      Loss of land, however, is considered a natural
            phenomenon and the owner of such land would bear the cost of a loss, with no
            right to compensation.

            Forestry and Agriculture

                 Forestry is managed under federal rules, while agriculture and cattle
            ranching are a matter for local legislation.     Environmental laws at both the
            federal and local levels establish extensive control of the exploitation,
            conservation, and administration of those resources.     Once again, it was not
            possible to find specific rules to address the potential problem of sea level
            rise.

            Socioeconomic Obstacles to Planning for Sea Level Rise

                 Relying on the existing legal framework, it would be possible to begin
            addressing a globally planned response to climate change and sea level rise.
            But before proposing adaptive options, it is necessary to see how this legal
            framework relates to the socioeconomic conditions in the coastal areas of Mexico.

                 There are many conflicts between the development interests and the local
            economics based on coastal resources. Many of Mexico's coastal communities have
            marginal economies. In these communities, everyday activities are a matter of
            survival. Authorities at both the federal and the local levels are attempting
            to satisfy the basic needs of these communities, rather than thinking about
            responses to a problem not yet scientifically proven.

                 Although the Mexican people want to raise their standard of living, we need
            to ask what kind of development should be allowed. Industrialization and growth
            on the basis of existing technology will contribute to the problem of global
            warming.


            ADAPTIVE OPTIONS

                 A great deal of work has been done, but much more work is needed to find
            a balance between sustainable development and conservation of natural resources
            and protection of the environment.





                                                   259








            Lega7 and InstitutionO Imp7ications

            At the National Level

                 To deal with a potential sea level rise, we will have to think of the
            coastal zone as a unitary natural resource, and then provide for its management
            either by existing authorities or by a newly created authority. (In relation
            to hydrological resources, while groundwaters are susceptible to appropriation
            by individuals, underground water is controlled by the state.      In both cases,
            there are no laws or programs to address the potential impacts from global
            warming or sea level rise.)

                 The Mexican government needs to make use of environmental regulations
            already in force to prevent or to adapt to global warming.          It must also
            disseminate sound scientific information about the causes and risks of global
            warming among authorities both at the federal and local levels.

            At the International Level

                 A global response of the international community is required to face the
            cl imate change.   International cooperation is needed, with due respect to
            national needs and priorities. Now that the principle of permanent sovereignty
            over natural resources has been achieved, the IPCC process should be used to make
            governments and people aware of the real value of natural resources.


























                                                   260










         LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF ADAPTIVE OPTIONS
              OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN ARGENTINA,'URUGUAY, AND SPAIN


                                          DR. GUILLERMO J. CANO
                                            Executive Director
                              Fundacion Ambiente y Recursos Naturales
                                        Buenos Aires, Argentina






            ABSTRACT

                 This paper covers the following subjects concerning the legal regimes of
            Argentina, Uruguay, and Spain, countries riparian to the Atlantic Ocean and
            having a system of written statutory law originating in the Roman law tradition:
            factors common to the countries surveyed; two basic legal principles, periculum
            and commodum, which are allocated by Nature (acts of God); men are responsible
            for damages produced by sea level rise when this does not happen as an act of
            God; complexity of the legal and administrative regimes of maritime coastal
            areas; boundary delimitation of the public and private domain in maritime coastal
            areas; other lines and strips linked to the legal maritime high-water mark;
            maritime-coastal wetlands; and legal rules as tools to promote or discourage
            human influences in changing the high-water mark, and government powers based
            on them.



            INTRODUCTION

                 The legal systems of Spain, Uruguay, and Argentina are not based on common
            law.   Rather, they are derived from ancient Roman law following a regime of
            written statutory law. Argentina is a federation, institutionally quite similar
            to the United States.

                 This study looks at the legal powers of these three countries with regard
            to adopting suitable measures to adapt to the difficulties that could arise from
            the predicted sea level rise. These adaptations may not necessarily include the
            preservation of wetlands.


            TWO BASIC LEGAL PRINCIPLES: "PERICULUN" AND "COMMODUM"

                 The judicial wisdom of the ancient Romans led them to state the legal
            principle that it is nature that distributes the periculum (danger, damages) and

                                                      261







            Legal and Institutional Implications

            the commodum (comfort, benefits). We relate "nature" to the agnostics and "acts
            of God" to the believers. Legally, both expressions have the same meaning.

                 Since ancient Rome, this principle has governed the relationships among
            states and individuals and has been translated into a number of rules of the
            civil codes. For instance, the owner of a piece of land has the right to receive
            the waters descending onto his land from above it, provided the waters descend
            as a result of nature and not the work of humans. When the waters are produced
            directly or indirectly by human influence, the responsibility for any damage lies
            with the people who have initiated the activity.       Argentina's Court Supreme
            admitted the applicability of this principle in a sentence dictated in 1986
            (Fallos 175:133).

                 The principle has economic implications.     If a man chooses to live on a
            flood-prone riverside, he accepts the risk of being flooded and of bearing the
            consequences of the periculum, provided the flood is not produced by the work
            of another human being.    If a flood is caused by human activity, the people
            responsible for the activity are also responsible for the damages the man
            suffers. But, in this example, the man who chooses to live there also takes
            into account the commodum, as he benefits from having at his disposal cheaper
            water to fulfill his needs, perhaps combined with panoramic beauty and a lower
            price for the land.

                 In the field of international law, it is a generally accepted principle
            that no country can produce in a river basin damages that could significantly
            affect another state of the same basin (Cano, 1979b).


            LEGAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE COMPLEXITIES

                 In the maritime coasts of Uruguay, Argentina, and Spain, there is a mixture
            of salty seawaters. The regular tides are mainly due to lunar attraction; in
            fresh waters of continental origin (superficial and subterranean), the tides
            depend on either rain or snow. Generally, the two kinds of waters are subjected
            to different legal regimes and are under different administrative organizations.
            As far back as 1975, several people favored consolidation of the maritime and
            continental water laws (Cano, 1975; Sewell, 1976).

                 In addition, the soil along the coasts generally belongs to different
            people. The beaches and the immediate sea bed are often in the public domain,
            and the adjacent lands inland are often private property. Thus, they are subject
            to different legal regimes.    In federal countries, like the United States and
            Argentina, the situation is more complex, since the public domain is sometimes
            federal and other times local, or the jurisdiction is federal for certain uses
            of the water (navigation) and local for other uses (irrigation, domestic
            consumption, etc.). Complicating things even further, other natural resources
            along the coast are interrelated with the land and the water (flora and fauna,
            minerals) and are also subject to different laws and authorities (Sneader and
            Getter, 1985).



                                                   262










                                                                                         Cano

                Many coastal cities, towns, and ports are administered by another
           governmental level: the municipalities or town councils. This makes matters
           worse, especially if there is a sea level rise that floods urban areas
           permanently. This would displace thousands of people, causing not only legal
           problems but also social problems.     Christina Massei has written about this
           subject for this meeting (see Massei, Central and South America, Volume 2).


           DELIMITING PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DOMAIN

                In the maritime coasts of Uruguay, Argentina, and Spain, the beach, the sea
           bed, and the waters seaward of the maritime high-water mark belong in the public
           domain. Inland, the land is private property. While the high-water mark or high
           tide is used to divide the public from the private domain, the low-water mark
           is used in politico-international relations, as it serves as a starting point
           to measure the beginning of the territorial sea, or the exclusive economic zone.

                That low-tide mark, or low tide, can be physically delimited on the beaches
           or the cliffs. It is called the normal base mark or reduction plan. Sometimes,
           however, a riparian government chooses to draw straight lines between the capes
           that mark either gulfs or bays and to state that all that remains inland in those
           marks is -- in relationship with other nations -- of its exclusive domain and
           sovereignty. These marks are called "base straight marks" (Cano et al., 1989).
           Due to a Joint Declaration made on January 30, 1961 (ratified by the Montevideo
           Treaty on January 19, 1963), both Argentina and Uruguay defined             -_ in
           relationship with third nations -- the frontal border of the Rio de la Plata,
           which they share. The territorial sea of both countries starts seaward from that
           straight base mark (which is 230 km long) (Cano, 1979b).

                In the Republic of Uruguay, along the coasts of the Rio de la Plata and on
           the Atlantic Ocean, the high-water mark is determined by the average of maximum
           annual heights over a 20-year period (Gelsi Bidart, 1981).    In Spain, according
           to its 1985 Water Law, the high-water mark is determined similarly, but is
           averaged over 10 consecutive years (Gonzalez Perez et al., 1987).

                Concerning the river coasts, the civil codes of the three countries we are
           dealing with provide that if sediments accumulate naturally, the extended surface
           that forms (called "alluvium") increases the property of the riparian landowners.
           But if the riverside consists of a road, wall, or another public work, the
           alluvium becomes public property.    This is one example of enforcement of the
           principle that nature distributes the periculum and the commodum. But the laws
           of those countries do not offer the same solution for the maritime coasts,
           because physical aggregate by alluvium cannot be produced in them. On the other
           hand, it could occur the other way around: erosion by the sea could forever
           diminish the property of the riparian landowner. It is worth adding that within
           the public domain (beaches, etc.), individuals cannot build -- or even plant
           -- anything without a license from the government.

                If the maritime high-water mark rose permanently, for example, because of
           a sea level rise, it would be necessary to redraw the mark, and the riparian or
           littoral owner would lose the property of the flooded lands.      Such a solution

                                                  263








             Legal and Institutional Implications

             has been proposed for a future reform in the Argentine legislation (Cano et al.,
             1989).

                  In the Argentine federation, the maritime beaches, the sea bed, and the
             waters up to three miles seaward are the property of and under the jurisdiction
             of the government of the littoral province.         Navigation is under federal
             jurisdiction, even though the soil, the water, and  the jurisdiction over all the
             nlon-navigational uses (fishing, mining, etc.) of the water and the bed still
             belong to the provincial government (Cano, 1979a).       The safety of navigation
             is.also under the jurisdiction of the federal government, through the Prefectura
             Naval Argentina (equivalent to the U.S. Coast Guard Service). According to the
             Constitution, the ports can be regulated only by the federal government. Thus,
             the harbor patrol, even for non-navigational purposes, is exclusively exercised
             by the Prefectura Naval.

                  On the maritime Argentine coast there can be more than one legal high-water
             mark.  One is established by the federal government only for the sake of its
             jurisdiction over navigation; the other one is adopted by the governments of the
             littoral provinces for all the other purposes. In fact, the government of Buenos
             Aires Province (Cano et al., 1989) has created a 150-m-wide strip inland of the
             legal high-water mark, where construction of buildings is prohibited.

                  In general, this strip is occupied by dunes.      If the dunes extend beyond
             100 m, the prohibition strip becomes larger to accommodate the full extension
             of the dunes.

                  In Argentina, for the purpose of navigation, the legal high-water mark is
             physically established in terrain by the National Directorate for Port Works and
             Navigable Waterways. Also in Argentina, along the maritime coast, the legal low-
             water mark or reduction plan is physically delimited by the Navy's Hydrographic
             Service, which is also in charge of delimiting the straight base marks.


             OTHER LINES AND LAND STRIPS LINKED TO THE LEGAL MARITIME HIGH-WATER MARK

                  Starting from the legal maritime high-water mark and moving landward, in
             Argentina there is a strip 50 m wide, all along the maritime coast.             The
             Prefectura Naval (federal agency) exercises its navigational jurisdiction over
             this strip.   Inland of that strip, the soil is the property of the riparian
             landowner, without restrictions on its use.

                  Second to the federal civil code, along the bands of navigable rivers in
             Argentina, there is a 35-m-wide legal servitude, or right-of-way. This is called
             "towrope servitude," or riverside way. The riparian landowners must keep that
             strip free to enable transit, and they cannot build on it or plant any trees
             (Cano et al., 1989).

                  In the Rio de la Plata (one riverside of which is Argentine and the other
             Uruguayan), a special situation occurs. The high-water mark is determined both
             by the tides and by the flow of the Parana and Uruguay Rivers, the union of which
             forms the Rio de la Plata (that on the whole amounts to a flow of about 11,000

                                                    264










                                                                                         Cano

           M'/sec). When strong winds from the southeast prevail in the mouth of the Rio
           de la Plata, which is 220 km wide, they block the normal flow of the river
           waters, and the riparian lands become flooded.       In Argentina as well as in
           Uruguay, the Rio de la Plata is legally considered a river and not an estuary.
           Thus, the strip of 35 m devoted to protect navigation is applicable (Gelsi
           Bidart, 1981; Cano et al., 1989).

                Recently proposed reforms to the Argentine legislation would (1) create in
           the maritime coast a "service zone" 10 m wide, which the landowner must keep
           free for transit (such a zone does not exist at present); (2) forbid landowners
           next to the legal maritime high-water mark from carrying out excavations that
           could alter the mark's altitude; (3) grant the landowners next to the legal
           maritime high-water mark the right to request from the government the physical
           delimitation of the marks, in procedures that must be carried out with the
           government's participation (the procedures must be carried out again if the mark
           naturally changes through an act of God); (4) maintain in that maritime coast
           the strip of 50 m so that the navigational safety police can carry out their
           responsibilities; (5) create a servitude of floodways along the 350 km of
           Argentine coast of the Rio de la Plata, which would eventually be subjected to
           sea level rise (the land use would be subjected to restrictions imposed by the
           provincial government, which would apply throughout the width of the floodway
           up to the 25-year floodplain); and (6) create along the banks of the Rio de la
           Plata another strip called the "flood-prone area," which strip would be
           determined by the level that flood waters are expected to reach every 100 years
           (this strip would also be subjected to use restrictions, but they would be less
           severe than those imposed by the provincial government) (Cano et al., 1989).

                According to article 2611 of the Argentine Civil Code, the restrictions to
           the public property are imposed for the public interest (and not for the interest
           of any individual person).        These restrictions are established by the
           administrative law, and the power to carry them out belongs to the provincial
           governments.

                On the Atlantic coast are four provinces (Buenos Aires, Rio Negro, Chubut,
           Santa Cruz) and two federal territories (city of Buenos Aires and Tierra del
           Fuego). In the two territories, the federal government acts as a local authority
           where such local powers can be exercised. Restrictions can be imposed on private
           property without compensating the owners, but when the restrictions call for
           establishing servitudes (rights-of-way), the owners must be compensated. Even
           more, when landowners are deprived of their property because of eminent domain,
           the Constitution requires full compensation. The mere "restrictions" only imply
           abstentions that the owner must tolerate. They apply to everyone in the same
           situation and are for the general benefit of the public, rather than of an
           individual (Cano et al., 1989).

                Uruguay has an identical legal regime for the legal high-water mark for its
           maritime coasts and for those of Rio de la Plata.     Its strip of defense along
           these areas is 250 m wide.      Along the strip, the domain of landowners is
           restricted (landowners may not remove sand), and the government can impose more
           restrictions as it deems necessary (Cano et al., 1989). Uruguay has a different


                                                  265








             Legal and Institutional Implications

             regime for its other fluvial coasts (the Uruguay, Cuareim, and Yaguaron Rivers,
             the last two bordering with Brazil) (Gelsi Bidart, 1981).

             Maritime Law

                  Spai n speci f i es two stri ps (Gonzal ez Perez et al . , 1987; Cano et al . , 1989):

                  ï¿½  a zone of servitude 5 m wide, for public use, fishing, and rescue/life-
                     saving; and

                  ï¿½  a police zone of 100 m, where a governmental license is required to alter
                     the natural relief of the terrain, to remove stones or sand, to construct
                     buildings, or to initiate any other activity that could obstruct the free
                     flow of flooding waters.


             A SPECIAL CASE: MARITIME COASTAL WETLANDS'

                  In Argentina, the wetlands are not administered by the federal government.
             Some provincial laws (but none of them from provinces with maritime shores)
             govern them, but those laws allow and even require their drying up so that the
             provinces can recover their beds for farming and can put the waters to other
             uses.   If the coastal wetlands are below the legal maritime high-water mark,
             they are part of the public domain and are subject to its regime.

                  Argentina is not a signatory of the Ramsar Convention.             The federal
             legislation recently planned by the.author of this document (Cano et al., 1989)
             proposes to adopt a definition of wetlands that differs from the Ramsar
             Convention's definition and that is very similar to the definition of the U.S.
             Corps of Engineers and of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.          The proposed
             definition would limit the depth to one meter and would demand the presence of
             anaerobic vegetation. The explicit proposal is to declare wetlands as being in
             the public domain, as would be the case with coastal wetlands when they surpass
             the legal maritime high-water mark.      How the wetlands would be used would be
             subject to what each provincial government decided for its territory.

                  When the Uruguayan government ratified the Ramsar Convention, a conflict
             arose over the conceptual disagreement between the Convention and the preexisting
             Uruguayan legislation (the 1979 Water Code and the 1875/1943 Rural Code). This
             former legislation protects the wetlands when they have autochthonic fauna,
             whereas the Ramsar Convention refers to migratory birds (waterfowl) (Laciar,
             1989).   Although the Rocha Swamplands were protected by preexisting rules
             (article 161 of the Water Code), the Convention authorized their drying up. In
             1987, a  group of ecologists obtained a judicial verdict that paralyzed the
             drainage works.



                     This study examines only the maritime coastal wetlands and not
             Mediterranean wetlands.



                                                     266










                                                                                             Cano

                 In Spain, wetlands are ruled by the Ramsar Convention, the 1985 Water Law,
            and the Coasts Law.    For example, the Coasts Law rules over coastal wetlands
            (Laciar, 1989), especially over how to delimit them.         The administration of
            wetlands is shared by the Water and the Environmental Authorities (Martin Mateo,
            1981; Cano et al., 1989). Their legal regime includes the artificially created
            wetlands, and the margins of any wetland could also be added.

                 All activity in the wetlands is subjected to licenses or concessions. If
            the Water Authority decided to encourage their drainage, it would have to consult
            the Environmental Authority. In the wetlands, the water is within the public
            domain, but the beds and the other natural resources can be private property
            (Cano et al., 1989).    Wetlands that are declared to be of special ecological
            interest are subjected to concessions of more severe conditions.


            RULES GOVERNING THE HIGH-WATER MARK

                 We   have   seen  that,    in  general,   the   countries   under   study    can
            administratively impose restrictions on the use of private lands adjacent to the
            sea without compensating the owners when the restrictions are of a general
            character, when they relate to the public interest (as determined by the
            parliaments of these countries), and when they do not imply a substantial limit
            on the private property.       Moreover, if they compensate landowners, these
            countries can also impose rights-of-way and even forcibly buy the necessary lands
            based on the public interest.

                 With regard to programs for mitigating flood damages (Cano et al., 1989),
            Canadian and U.S. practices have strongly influenced the kind of restrictions
            these countries are imposing on people who choose to live in flood-prone areas.
            The program includes mandatory insurance, the cost of which is shared by the
            population of other areas, through a public subsidy for the insurance.           This
            could be an example valid for the coastal zones subject to sea level rise.
            However, I only suggest this as a mere possibility that should be open to a more
            careful study and discussion.

                 The discussion has already begun on the subject of the responsibilities of
            governments and individuals due to the global warming.

                 As the projected the sea level rise has not yet occurred, it is still
            possible to take preventive measures; this course would be cheaper because it
            does not try to correct existing situations.       It is possible to restrict the
            present and future uses of coastal properties by introducing long-term planning
            and land use zoning.     Taxation and other restrictions could also be used to
            discourage settlement in and use of the coastal zones, or to create funds to
            support the changes.

                 The question of the diversity of political and administrative jurisdictions
            in the coastal zones, especially in the cities, deserves special consideration.
            Horacio Godoy (1981) proposed for Colombia the creation of a Maritime Authority,
            to address the coastal problems. That form of inter-administrative coordination
            must be explored to confront the problem we now must fact.

                                                     267








             Legal and Institutional Implications

             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Gelsi Bidart, A.G. 1981. Codigo de aguas de la Republica Oriental del Uruguay.
             A. Fernandez, ed. Montevideo.
             Cano, G.J." 1975.     Evolucion historica y geografica del derecho de aguas y su
             papel en el manejo y desarrollo de los recursos hidricos.                     Valencia:
             International Association for Water Law.

             Cano, G.J. 1979a. Derecho, politica y administracion mineros. Buenos Aires:
             Fedye, p. 229.

             Cano, G.J. 1979b. Recursos Hidricos Internacionales en la Argentina. Buenos
             Aires: V. de Zavalia.

             Cano, G.J., et al.     1989.   Estudio sobre linea de ribera.      Buenos Aires: CFI,
             Consejo Federal de Inversiones, Volume 1.

             Convention on Wetlands of Internation Interest, Especially as      Waterfowl Habitat.
             Ramsar, February 2, 1971. In: International Environmental          Law - Multilateral
             Treaties, R. Muecke and E. Schmidt, eds. Paris: Verlag, p. 971:09, and Protocol
             signed in Paris on December 3, 1982.          Published in Spanish in "Ambiente y
             Recursos Naturales - Revista de Derecho, Pol itica y Administration" Vol. 111-2,
             p. 107 (June 1986, edited by Fundacion Ambiente y Recursos Naturales.            Buenos
             Aires, Argentina).

             Godoy, H.H.    1981. Administracion del mar - Informe de la mision a Colombia,
             April 1979. UN/DTCD.

             Laciar, M.E. 1989. Regimen Legal de los Humedales Costeros en la Argentina,
             Uruguay y Espana.       Buenos Aires:      Informe de la Fundacion ARN para el
             Environmental Law Institute.

             Massei, C.    Sea Level Rise:    The living strategies concept in the context of
             Latin American relocation policies (including wetlands).               Buenos Aires:
             Fundacion Ambiente y Recursos Naturales.

             Mateo, R.M.     1981.   La proteccion de las zonas humedas en el ordenamiento
             espanol. Refista de Administracion Publica 96:8.

             Perez, J.G., J.T. Jaudenes, and C.A. Alvarez. 1987. Comentarios a la ley de
             aguas. Madrid: Editorial Civitas..

             Sewell, W.D. 1976. Planning challenges in the management of coastal zone water
             resources.    A.J.A. II (Caracas) 2:567.

             Sneader, S., Getter, C.H. 1985. Costas - Pautas para el Manejo de los Recursos
             Costeros. Publication No. 2. Columbia, SC: U.S. National Park Service/AID.




                                                      268











                               PRESERVING COASTAL WETLANDS
                     AS SEA LEVEL RISES: LEGAL OPPORTUNITIES
                                        AND CONSTRAINTS



                             ROBERT L. FISCHMAN AND LISA ST. AMAND
                                   Environmental Law Institute
                                        1616 P Street, N.W.
                                      Washington, D.C. 20036






            INTRODUCTION

                 Many scientists are predicting an increase in the Earth's surface
            temperature as a result of "greenhouse gases" being introduced into the
            atmosphere. A temperature increase may lead to higher sea levels, inundating
            coastal wetlands. Under natural conditions, coastal marsh grasses could retreat
            landward of the inundated wetlands and maintain a constant vegetated edge between
            dryland and open coastal waters. However, in many parts of the United States,
            property owners will have already developed the areas that would support new
            "migrant" wetlands, and will have erected levees and bulkheads to protect dry-
            land from seawater.   Unless the government acts to discourage property owners
            from taking measures to prevent inland retreat of coastal marshes, the United
            States will lose most of these valuable wetland resources under the rising tide.

                 Governments may  try a number of different approaches to respond to this
            potential problem. These approaches may involve land use regulation to forbid
            development or bulkheading behind current coastal marshes.        Acquisition of
            property rights (including outright (fee simple) ownership, development rights,
            or leases) through purchase, condemnation, or regulation is another approach
            governments may consider.     James Titus has identified three categories of
            strategies that the government can use to protect natural shorelines':         (1)
            prevent development by prohibiting it altogether or by purchasing property and
            dedicating it to preservation; (2) defer action until the seas rise, and then
            order landowners to abandon their property to the sea or to purchase the coastal
            property; and (3) prohibit bulkheads on natural shorelines, or acquire a future
            interest in coastal property. The first and third categories require the


                 'J.G. Titus. "Greenhouse Effect -- A Coastal Wetland Policy: How America
            Might Abandon an Area the Size of Massachusetts." Environmental Management (in
            press).

                                                   269









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             government to act in anticipation of the sea level rise problem. Of the three,
             the third category is the most politically feasible.

                  This paper discusses the legal issues that arise from applying these policy
             approaches.    The primary question these approaches raise is whether the
             government must compensate affected property owners.      The paper will focus on
             the policy actions governments can take now to mitigate problems later as the
             threat of land loss due to sea level rise becomes imminent. Because there is
             no need to prohibit development altogether before the migration of wetlands, this
             paper will focus on options that restrict bulkheading and that acquire future
             interests.

                  The power of eminent domain, which rests in both the federal and the state
             governments, allows condemnation of private   property for a public purpose. The
             aspects of the proposed government actions that involve purchase of property
             rights face no legal barrier.     Governments can negotiate a voluntary sale or
                                                                        2
             condemn property for the purpose of wetland    protection.

                  This paper is concerned primarily with   the extent to which governments can
             act without compensating private property     owners who are faced with special
             restrictions or property loss. In the United States, the fifth amendment of the
             Constitution, as applied to the states through the fourteenth amendment, limits
             governments' ability to infringe on private property for public purposes without
                                                        3
             just compensation and due process of law.    Even if the best policy option is to
             pay all landowners for their sacrifices to allow coastal wetlands to migrate,
             an understanding of the government's authority to act without compensation will
             play an important role in negotiations with private landowners.       The stronger
             the government's right to act without compensation, the more likely private
             landowners are to cooperate, and the lower their reservation prices will be.

                  The fifth amendment of the U.S. Constitution specifies that people will
             not be deprived of property without compensation. This limitation on government
             regulations that do not compensate injured landowners is seldom encountered in
             other countries. This places all of the other nations whose laws we examined
             in a better negotiating position to agree with private landowners to allow
             coastal wetlands to migrate.



                  2Wetland protection falls comfortably within the bounds the United States
             Supreme Court has established to limit what constitutes a public purpose. Cf.
             Berman v. Parker, 348 U.S. 26 (1954) (upholding condemnations to redevelop
             blighted urban areas as within the broad state power to act on behalf of the
             public welfare).

                  3U.S. Const. amend. V (No person shall "be deprived of life, liberty or
             property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for
             public use, without just compensation") U.S. Const. amend. XIV, ï¿½1 (No state
             shall "deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of
             law").

                                                     270










                                                                      Fischman and St. Amand


           THE "TAKING" ISSUE

                 In his famous 1922 opinion, Justice Holmes found that a Pennsylvania law
           restricting underground coal owners from mining some of        their property was
           invalid without compensation to the owners for loss of their   rights. 4He stated:
           "if a regulation goes too far, it will be recognized as a      taking."    Although
           subsequent cases give us a bit more guidance, Holmes' general statement
           accurately captures the ad hoc law of takings -- there is no   precise formula for
           determining whether a regulation, such as bulkhead or development restrictions,
           is a taking.5

                 States, which have sovereign power to regulate land use for the health,
           safety, and welfare of their citizens, confer regulatory authority on local,
           municipal, and county governments to control land use.        Many states reserve
           authority to regulate land use in areas of special concern, such as coasts.
           Since state regulations and local regulations based on enabling authority granted
           from the state both must respect fifth amendment protection of property, we will
           not distinguish between the two in our legal analysis. However, it is important
           to note that a landowner can challenge a local regulation as not being within
           the scope of powers granted to the local jurisdiction by the state law.        This
           issue is a matter of state law, and does not arise in cases where the state
           directly regulates land use, such as actions by a state coastal zone management
           authority.

                 The policy responses to sea level rise fall into two categories for the
           purpose of our takings analysis. One is permit conditions, which occur when a
           government authority exacts from a landowner either an acquisition for a future
           interest or a prohibition on bulkheading in exchange for the necessary permission
           to develop the property. The other is bulkhead prohibitions on all property,
           not tied to a grant of permission to modify land use.

           Permit Conditions

                 Building permits for new structures are issued by local authorities who
           may check to see that the proposed structure meets zoning requirements. In many
           jurisdictions, special subdivision/land development ordinances regulate major


                 4Pennsylvania Coal Co. v. Mahon, 260 U.S. 393, 413 (1922).
                 5A regulation also will be invalid if it deprives a landowner of property
           without due process of law.     Because the due process protection in the fifth
           amendment embodies similar safeguards as the just compensation requirement,
           courts generally fail to distinguish between the two grounds when overturning
           regulations. Want, "The Taking Defense to Wetlands Regulation," Env. L. Rptr.
           (Env.L.Inst.) 10169 (1984).    Therefore, the. takings issue as defined in this
           paper includes due process concerns that tend to focus on the rational
           relationship between the regulation in question and a legitimate government
           interest (e.g., a state's interest in the health, safety, and welfare of its
           citizens).

                                                   271









            Legal and Institutional Implications

            construction activities and often require permit applicants to meet standards
            relating to environmental protection. Building on undeveloped land in coastal
            zones generally requires a permit from a state coastal zone management agency.'

                 In fact, it was the conditioning of a permit by a coastal management agency
            that the Supreme Court ruled invalid as an uncompensated taking in Nollan v.
                                           7
            California Coastal Commission.    The dispute centered on a condition requiring
            dedication of an easement imposed by the California Coastal Commission on a
            permit to replace a bungalow with a larger house.     The easement condition was
            not for public access to the public beach, but for public access along the
            portion of the dry sand beach owned by the permittee. The Commission argued that
            the condition was imposed to mitigate the adverse impact of the new house, which
            would block the public's view of the beach, "psychologically" inhibit the
            public's recognition of its right of access, and increase private use of the
            shorefront.

                 The Court found that the condition utterly failed to meet the legitimate
            state interest in public health, safety, and welfare.        Although the Court
            suggested that a permit condition must bear a substantial relationship to a valid
            public purpose, its actual finding that there was not even a rational
            relationship carries more precedential weight in defining the test for permit
            conditions. The Court acknowledged that the Nollans had no unfettered right to
            build on the property, and that the Commission had a right to deny the permit
            if denial would protect some public right.8 However, a condition on the permit
            that is unrelated to the public right (of access, use, and view of the shore)
            is invalid. The Commission could have conditioned the permit on the provision
            of a public view or access to the beach. It could also have used its eminent
            domain power to condemn the dry beach easement.

                 A coastal management agency seeking to protect wetlands could condition a
            permit for development or construction on a prohibition of bulkheads. Because
            the relationship between the presence of a bulkhead and the inability of wetlands
            to migrate inland is substantial, let alone rational, such a condition would meet
            the standard set by the Court in Nollan.


                 eThe federal Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA), 16 U.S.C. ï¿½ï¿½1451-1464,
            creates a voluntary program to encourage states to exercise their own authority
            to establish and implement coastal management plans (CMPs). The CZMA is not a
            grant of regulatory authority over private property to states. States with CMPs
            approved by the federal government receive financial assistance and can prohibit
            (subject to the veto of the U.S. Secretary of Commerce) federal activities not
            consistent with the CMP.    This provision gives states with CMPs leverage to
            affect activities requiring federal permits, such as dredge and fill operations.
            The CZMA encourages states to plan how development should occur in a coastal zone
            where land use has a direct impact on coastal waters. 16 U.S.C. ï¿½1453.

                 7483 U.S. 825 (1987).

                 8483 U.S. at 836.

                                                   272










                                                                         Fischman and St. Amand


                 Furthermore, Nollan is a case involving a physical invasion: an easement
            for public access. The Court traditionally has viewed the right to exclude as
            a particularly important property right protected by the fifth amendment
            (regulations involving physical invasions of property often are challenged
            pursuant to the fifth amendment).' A condition prohibiting bulkheads does not
            invade property or give the public increased access."             Given the Nollan
            opinion's overall critical tone, it is important to note that it did not renounce
            the validity of environmental protection (or even protection of visual
            amenities)."    To ensure the constitutionality of its actions, a regulatory
            authority seeking to condition permits on bulkhead restrictions should make
            explicitly factual findings of the relationship between the condition and the
            goals of environmental protection and public welfare.

                 A condition requiring the transfer of a future property right (for instance,
            a future conservation or flowage easement) to the government is more vulnerable
            to a takings claim than a condition preventing a landowner from building a
            seawall. Although the result may be the same in terms of current fastland being
            inundated, the legal effect of transferring a formal property right to the
            government is likely to tip the scales in favor of just compensation. If the
            government builds a dam, it is required to compensate landowners for the right
            to flood their land above the natural high water.

                 A crucial aspect of the Nollan case is that the Commission had the authority
            to deny the permit entirely. Without this power, a permitting agency needs to
                                                                  12
            be much more careful about imposing conditions.            In Nollan, conditioning
            development was not such a great imposition, because a bungalow already existed


                 gNollan observes that the right to exclude others is "one of the most
            essential sticks in the bundle of rights that are commonly characterized as
            property." 483 U.S. at 831 (quoting Kaiser Aetna v. United States, 444 U.S. 164,
            176 (1979)) .   The Nollan Court also observed that where permanent physical
            occupation has occurred, giving individuals the permanent and continuous right
            to traverse the property, a taking occurs. 483 U.S. at 831-32 (citing Loretto
            v. Teleprompter Manhattan CATV Corp., 458 U.S. 419, 432-33 (1982).                 See
            discussion of Character of Government Action infra.

                 "At least not in the short run. In the long run, as tidelands migrate onto
            private property, public rights to use the tidelands also migrate onto the
            property. See discussion of State Public Trust infra.
                 "Sax, "Property Rights in the U.S. Supreme Court:         A Status Report," 7
            U.C.L.A. J.Env. L. & Policy 139, 146 (1988).
                 12 In fact, without the power to deny the permit, the agency may have no
            authority to condition the permit. The      'Nollan opinion.offered no guidance for
            determining whether an agency has the power to deny a permit in a particular
            case.   It is likely that the factors discussed in the next section would
            determine the issue.

                                                      273









            Legal and Institutional Implications

            on the property, and some economic use could.'result even if the permit were
            denied. Although regulations that leave property owners with no ability to build
            any houses on their property have been upheld (:46e the following section), the
            equities are more difficult to balance.

            Bulkhead Prohibition on Existing Development

                 Regulation prohibiting bulkhead construction, when not tied to a permit as
            a condition, is a more difficult problem. To    the extent a government can ban
            seawalls outright, it can certainly condition permits to that effect. On the
            other hand, the power to condition permits for bulkheads (which are privileges,
            not rights) does not imply an equal power to impose conditions on all landowners.
            The Nollan Court, which indicated that a permit conditioned on an easement would
            be valid, given a substantial relationship to a state interest, stated:
                 Had California simply required the Noll4n`sjo make' an easement across
                 their beachfront available to the public on a permanent basis in order
                 to increase public access to the beach, rather than conditioning their
                 permit to rebuild their house on their agreeing to do so, we have no
                                                        13
                 doubt there would have been a taking.

                 Nonetheless, regulation of land uses that seem more severe than a bulkhead
            prohibition have been upheld by the Supreme Court. These are discussed below.
            Generally, a government action is a taking if:

                 1. it fails to appropriately advance,a'legitimate state interest;

                 2. it removes all reasonable economic uses of the property; or

                 3.  its character approaches a physical invasion. The following paragraphs
                     address each of these possible fatal flaws of a regulation.

            Legitimate State Interest

                 Although some state courts have found     that preservation of land in a
            natural state is a valid state interest, 14 most courts look-for an interest that
            is explicitly tied to human concerns.      To the extent that coastal wetland
            migration is important for fish spawning, for instance, a regulation advancing
            this interest is more likely to be upheld if it i.s based on maintaining





                 "483 U.S. at 831.

                 14 The most famous case is Just v. Marinette Co., 201 N.W.2d 761 (Wis. 1972),
            which upheld an ordinance prohibiting a landowner from filling a wetland. "The
            ordinance ... preserves nature from the despoilage and harm resulting from the
            unrestricted activities of humans" (201 N.W.2d at 771).

                                                   274










                                                                     Fischman and St. Amand

           fisheries (for humans) rather than merely protecting fish." Any legislative (or
           even administrative) finding that migration of coastal wetlands is in the
           interest of human health, safety, welfare, or business will help a regulation
           meet the requirement that it be supported by a legitimate state interest."
           Protection of noneconomic resources, such as wildlife or aesthetics, arouses
           more Judicial scrutiny.

                The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld regulations designed to preserve open
           space, avoid premature development, and prevent pollution and congestion"';
           protect wetlands"; and reclaim mines." The Court has also indicated support for
           the legitimacy of a state interest in slum clearance" and visual/psychological
           beach access. ,

           Economic Impact
                In Pennsylvania Central Transportation Co. v. New York City," the United
           States Supreme Court upheld a New York City Landmarks Preservation Commission
           ruling that multistory office space could not be built above the designated
           landmark of Grand Central Terminal. Although the terminal's owner was denied
           the ability to fully exploit the economic value of the property, the owner was
           still left with a viable economic use of the property.     Furthermore, city law
           permitted the owner to sell air development rights to owners of nearby blocks.
           The Court held that for the purposes of takings analysis, a single parcel should
           not be divided into discrete segments to determine whether

                'sPublic expense for maintenance of fisheries may be avoided by maintaining
           wetlands (cf. 427 N.E.2d 750 (Mass. 1981) (regulations designed to avoid public
           expense for flood control measures made necessary by unwise choices in land
           development upheld)).

                "As discussed above, such a finding is important, not only to define the
           legitimate interest but also to demonstrate the nexus between the regulation
           and the interest it seeks to advance.

                '?Agins v. City of Tiburon, 447 U.S. 255 (1979) (upholding a zoning
           ordinance limiting the number.of buildings a plaintiff could construct on his
           property and deferring to legislative findings).
                'aUnited States v. Riverside Bayview Homes, 474 U.S. 121 (1985) (upholding
           wetland protection regulation under the federal Clean Water Act).
                "Hodel v. Virginia Surface Mining and Reclamation Ass'n, 452 U.S. 264
           (1981).
                20Berman v. Parker, 348 U.S. 26 (1954) (upholding an exercise of eminent
           domain but stating that redeveloping a blighted urban area is a legitimate police
           power interest).

                21 See discussion of Nollan in previous section.

                22 438 U.S. 104 (1978).

                                                 275









              Legal and Institutional Implications


                     rights in a particular segment have been entirely abrogated.             In
                     deciding whether a particular governmental action has effected a
                     taking, this Court focuses rather both on the character of the action
                     [discussed in the next section] and on the nature and extent of the
                     interference with rights in the parcel as a whole."


                     Thus, even if an entire segment of the property bundle is destroyed, the
              continued viability of other rights in the property bundle will prevent a
              taking."'  A large tract of land affected by a prohibition on bulkheading is
              likely to be only partly inundated by advancing seas. The smaller the portion
              of the land affected, the less likely the regulation is to be ruled a taking.

                     The Supreme Court has upheld regulations that result in a severe loss in
              value, with no compensation in the form of transferrable development rights."
              However, to the extent that fastland owners can be offered transferrable rights
              if their land floods, regulatory authorities will increase the likelihood that
              a prohibition of bulkheads will be upheld.           Also helpful is a regulation
              prohibiting certain uses that states explicitly what property owners may do.
              Severe restrictions on land use have been upheld where the only residual
              economic uses were agriculture, recreation, or camping."

                     The abatement of a public nuisance, even if at great expense to a private
              landowner, 'more likely will be upheld than a regulation forcing a private
                                                    211
              landowner to provide a public good.       In this sense, the economic prong of the
              takings test is related to the state interest prong.        A greater diminution in



                     23 438 U.S. at 130-31.

                     24 Note: This may not be true if a court find a physical invasion, discussed
              in the following section.

                     21 Cases quoted favorably by Penn. Central, 483 U.S. at 131 include Euclid
              v. Ambler Realty Co., 272 U.S. 365 (1926) (upholding a regulation causing 75%
              diminution in value of property); and Hadacheck v. Sebastian, 239 U.S. 394 (1915)
              (upholding a regulation causing 87.5% diminution in value). See also the more
              recent case of Keystone Bituminous Coal Ass'n v. DeBenedictis, 107 S. Ct. 1232
              (1987).

                     21Claridge v. State Wetlands Board, 485 A.2d 287 (N.H. 1984) (camping use
              for land is reasonable economic use); Turnpike Realty v. Town of Dedham, 284
              N.E.2d 891 (Mass. 1972), cert. denied 409 U.S. 1108 (1973) (agriculture or
              recreation are uses sufficient to surmount the taking hurdle); Turner v. DelNorte
              County, 24 Cal. App. 3d 311 (1971) (recreational use sufficient).

                     27 Keystone Bituminous Coal Ass'n v. DeBenedictis, 107 S.Ct. 1232, 1246, n.22
              (1987) (abatement of public nuisance to promote safety is not a taking, even if
              it destroys the value of property).

                                                       276











                                                                        Fischman and St. Amand

           value is likely to be upheld if the regulation is framed as preventing harm.
           Even Just v. Marinette County framed its natural wetland preservation language
           in terms of preventing the public nuisance of destroying wetland value      S.28

           Character of Government Action

                 Where the government regulation is of such character as to physically
           invade property, the court will find a taking, even if the economic loss is
           small. In Kaiser Aetna v. United State    S121 the Court ruled that the Army Corps
           of Engineers could not prevent a lagoon owner from excluding the public without
           compensation. In Loretto v. Teleprompter Manhattan CATV Corp.," the Court found
           a taking where a New York statute required apartment owners to allow cable
           companies to install facilities on their premises for a fee established by a
           commission.

                 Once a court finds that a regulation effects a physical invasion, it
           becomes extremely likely that the regulation will cause a taking.              It is
           critical that regulations to prevent bulkheads be drawn by making reference to
           bulkheads as a nuisance to business (such as the fishing and recreation
           industries) and other aspects of public welfare. A regulation that is found to
           exact a flowage easement for the sea over private property is more likely to be
           considered a taking than one that is found to restrict a seawall construction
           activity.

           Conclusion on the Takings Issue

                 The best rule of thumb for deciding whether outright bulkheads will be a
           taking is to return to Justice Holmes' pronouncement that a regulation that goes
           "too far" is a taking.      Whether a regulation goes "too far" depends on the
           circumstances of the particular case. A bulkhead prohibition will most likely
           be upheld if it:

                 ï¿½ advances   public   health,  safety,   or welfare     (including    business)
                   interests;

                 ï¿½ is based on a legislative finding that ties the regulation to the health,
                   safety, and welfare interests;



                 28201 N.W.2d 761 (Wis. 1972)     See also Miller v. Schoene, 276 U.S. 272
           (1928) (upholding ordinance requiring landowners to cut down their cedar trees
           to protect apple trees from being affected by disease); Hadacheck v. Sebastian,
           239 U.S. 394 (1915) (upholding a local decision to ban a brickyard because of
           the nuisance it creates to surrounding residences that were erected while the
           brickyard was operating).

                 29444 U.S. 164 (1979).

                 30458 U.S. 417 (1982).

                                                    277










             Legal and Institutional Implications

                  ï¿½ treats interference with a migrating wetland as a nuisance;

                  ï¿½ leaves landowners with some viable economic use of their land; or

                  ï¿½ provides some sort of transferrable right to ease the economic burden on
                    affected landowners.

                  A policy to prohibit use of bulkheads for property just now being developed
             (as opposed to applying it to all property) can be implemented by using a pre-
             existing regulatory system to condition permits. An anti -bul kheading condition
             will be upheld if it appropriately advances a state interest and if the
             underlying permit has not already been vested as a right in the landowner's
             property. ,


             THE PUBLIC TRUST DOCTRINE

                  We have seen that regulation designed to restrict land use to allow coastal
             wetland migration must not run afoul of the fifth amendment. However, because
             wetlands are valuable natural resources in which the public has a substantial
             interest 3' a government may be able to act within its trust responsibilities to
             address sea level rise.    Furthermore, the law recognizes the coastline as a
             uniquely important location and grants the government special rights and
             responsibilities to act on the coast in the public interest.

                  The public interest is a legal doctrine with ancient roots that concerns
             inalienable common rights to use certain natural resources. There is no single
             public trust theory; different trusts operate for different resources and
             different sovereigns (state and federal).       State and federal public trust
             doctrines are relevant to considering responses to sea level rise because the
             coast is an area where private lands traditionally have been subject to public
             rights.  Furthermore,  protection of these public rights may be an affirmative
             duty for governments.

             Federal Public Trust: The Navigational Servitude

                  Pursuant to the   commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution, the federal
             government impresses   a servitude on all navigable waters.       To ensure free
             commerce, navigation, and fishing, the federal government can improve both
             inland and coastal waters by building dams, jetties, diversions, etc. Private
             property owners who are injured by loss of the benefits of access to water due
             to these federal improvements have no legal recourse.

                  The commerce clause, besides defining the scope of the federal navigational
             servitude, also defines congressional regulatory authority over navigable


                  31 Important wetland functions include flood control; habitat for fishing,
             hunting, and recreation; and sediment, erosion, and pollution control. See J.A.
             Kusler. Our National Wetland Heritage: A Protection Guidebook. 1-7 (1983).

                                                    278











                                                                             Fischman and St. Amand

            waters. This regulatory authority is broader than the navigational servitude,"
            and its exercise by Congress may sometimes require compensation under the fifth
                                                                                  33
            amendment.     For instance, in Kaiser Aetna v. United States,           the Court ruled
            that a non-navigable private fish pond, when dredged and connected to the ocean
            to create a marina, is subject to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' regulatory

            authority, but not to the federal navigational servitude, which would have
            required free public access to the marina without compensation to the owner.

                  The commerce clause authorizes Congress to exercise eminent domain to
            provide public access, so long as the owner is compensated. However, a federal
            action that alters access to waters subject to the navigational servitude, even
            if the alteration completely deprives a littoral owner of all access to the
            waters, does not require compensation. This is because the owner's title has
            never been so complete as to include continued enjoyment of the benefits of
            access to navigational waters.       Even when the government condemns fastlands for
            a water-related project, compensation to the owner does not include the value
            of those lands attributable to their location near the water, such as for a
            port. "

                  The federal government could use the navigational servitude to prohibit a
            littoral landowner from erecting a bulkhead below the high-tide line, and no
            compensation would be required. The federal government could use its broader
            commerce clause regulatory authority to ban fastland bulkheads; however, it
            would be required to compensate the landowner if the regulation resulted in a
            taking.    As seas rise, there is no question about the federal government's
            ability to ensure that coastal wetlands be allowed to migrate.             The difficult
            question is whether the federal government also could exercise its authority to
                                                                                      31
            prohibit bulkheads without compensating inundated landowners.                  Would the
            Supreme court hold that the navigational servitude migrates inland as the seas
            rise?


                  "In fact, Congress' authority to regulate interstate commerce is much
            broader than the federal navigational servitude. Not only can Congress regulate
            waters that are non-navigable, it can regulate virtually any class of economic
            activities that cumulatively affect interstate commerce.            Wickard v. Filburn,
            317 U.S. 111 (1942) (upholding regulation of farmer's production of wheat for
            his family's consumption); United States v. Darby, 312 U.S. 100 (1941) (upholding
            exclusion of certain goods manufactured by factories violating labor standards
            from interstate commerce).

                  33 444 U.S. 164 (1979).

                  31 United States v. Rands, 389 U.S. 121 (1967).
                  "Landowners who delay in building a bulkhead and find their property partly
            under water during high tide may lose some rights to exclude the sea from that
            area. The following discussion concerns the situation where a landowner builds
            a bulkhead before the property is inundated.

                                                       279









            Legal and Institutional Implications


                 Courts could decide the issue either way. Kaiser Aetna and its companion
            case, Vaughn v. Vermilion, 36 indicate that the Court will focus on past use of
            areas that become subject to the ebb and flow of the tides as a result of
            private construction. In both cases, a landowner altered property that was not
            navigable to make it navigable for private use, In both cases, the Court held
            that such improvements did not result in the extension of the federal
            navigational servitude to cover the new navigable waters.          Therefore, a
            landowner who, in order to protect existing fastland, erects a bulkhead to keep
            a rising sea at bay will probably retain all of his private rights, even if the
            sea level rises to a point where it would otherwise inundate the fastland.
            Current Court doctrine seems to support the principle that land not previously
            subject to the navigational servitude will not be impressed with a new servitude
            due to artificial construction. Since construction of a bulkhead will prevent
            the land from becoming subject to the ebb and flow of the tides, the land will
            remain free from the servitude.    It is hard to see how a Court that does not
            recognize the migration of the federal navigational servitude to an area that
            becomes navigable-in-fact would extend the public trust to an area that is kept
            dry by a seawall.

                 Nonetheless, the Court has not addressed the issue of whether landowners
            can avoid a servitude by keeping the sea off their property under a condition
            where inaction would result in an expansion of the servitude. In Kaiser Aetna
            and Vaughn, the inaction would not have resulted in an expansion of navigable
            waters. The Court did not wish to penalize enterprising landowners who expand
            navigable waters through construction. Where inaction will result in rising sea
            levels moving navigational waters upland, the Court may find that the servitude
            moves, regardless of construction activities. In a sense, this interpretation
            of the reach of the navigational servitude is tied to the "natural" reach of
            navigable waters in the absence of construction.        This interpretation is
            consistent with a policy of promoting an increase in navigable waters, evinced
                                       37
            in Kaiser Aetna and Vaughn.

                 The Vaughn opinion left open the question of whether diversion or
            destruction of a pre-existing natural waterway concomitant to the construction
            activity that, on its own, does not alter the reach of the navigational
            servitude, would result in extending the servitude to the new navigable area
            created at the "expense" of part of the public servitude.   38  If harm to pre-
            existing navigable waters extends the servitude, then bulkheading that results
            in the degradation of navigable waters (perhaps including wetlands) may be
            subject to the public trust.


                 38444 U.S. 206 (1979).

                 37If the Court had found that the navigational servitude had moved in these
            cases, property owners would be discouraged from expanding navigable waters
            because they could not capture the benefits.

                 38 444 U.S. at 208-10.

                                                  280









                                                                      Fischman and St. Amand

                 Because the Court has not dealt with a case involving areas where navigable
            seas inundated former fastland,"' the extension of the navigational servitude is
            speculative.   Does the human-induced nature of global w      'arming change the
            analysis? Does an artificial seawall constructed to block an "artificial" rise
            in the sea level result in no net loss of property rights to the landowner? Or,
            does the potential loss of public rights trump private rights?          These are
            questions the Court is certain to face in the future.

            State Public Trust

                 As inheritors of the sovereign rights of the Crown, the thirteen original
            states acquired ownership of all lands subject to the ebb and flow of the tide.
            The "equal footing" doctrine has granted all subsequent states the same rights
            as the original thirteen .40 Therefore, upon statehood, each state received title
            to lands under the high-tide mark   .4'  The public trust prevents the federal
            government from conveying title to tidelands either before statehood or after.
                 States may own submerged tidelands, regardless of their navigabil      i ty.42
            Where the federal public trust is primarily concerned with free navigation


                 "Hughes v. Washington, 389 U.S. 290 (1967), distinguished between the
            effects of changes in a river course and changes in the sea shoreline.         Sea
            shorelines are sufficiently important to justify a federal rule governing
            ownership resulting from accretion and erosion where title rests with or is
            derived form the federal government. California ex rel. State Lands Commission
            v. United States, 457 U.S. 273, 282-83 (1982) (interpreting Hughes and Wilson
            v. Omaha Indian Tribe, 442 U.S. 653 (1979)).      Ownership of land involved in
            changes in river courses, so long as they do not affect state boundaries, is a
            matter of state law.

                 41pol lard's Lesee v. Hagan, 3 How. 212 (1845).

                 41 Shively v. Bowlby, 152 U.S. 1 (1894). (States also received title to beds
            underlying navigable waters not subject to the tide by extension of the English
            law doctrine. The Propeller Genesee Chief v. FitZhu h, 12 How. 443 (1852)).
                                                                  gL

                 41 Phillips Petroleum Co. v. Mississigpi, 108 S.Ct. 791 (1988).      Not all
            states own submerged tidelands (it is a matter of state law).        However, all
            submerged tidelands, whether publicly or privately owned, are subject to certain
            public easements. See, e.g., Bell v. Town of Wells, 57 U.S.L.W. 2590 (Maine Sup.
            Jud. Ct. No. 5029 3/30/89) (intertidal landowners hold title in fee subject to
            public easements); People v. California Fish Co.., 138 P. 79, 88 (Cal. 1913)
            (private ownership subject to a paramount right to use by the public).
                 Generally, though, state public trust lands extend from the mean high-tide
            line (otherwise known as the mean high-water mark) seaward to the three-mile
            territorial limit. This public trust land includes tidelands (otherwise known
            as foreshore) from mean high tide to mean low tide and submerged lands seaward
            of the low tide.    Existing wetlands generally fall in tidelands.        Comment,
            "Public Access to Private Beaches: A Tidal Necessity," 6 U.C.L.A.J.Env. L. &
            Policy 69.

                                                   281









              Legal and Institutional Implications

              issues, state public trust is more expansive and is concerned with a wide
              variety of interests, including fishing rights, environmental quality, and
              recreation .4' Therefore, state doctrines of public trust are more helpful than
              the federal doctrine in protecting the public interest in wetlands preservation.
              States hold submerged tidelands for public purposes.

                   Rather than being a single doctrine, state public trust is fifty separate
              bodies of law, each created by a state.      Whether a rise in sea level will add
              to state public trust land at the expense of private landowners is entirely a
              question of state law." In this paper we will discuss the State of Mississippi
              because of (1) its involvement in an important, recent Supreme Court case; (2)
              its shore location on the Gulf of Mexico with extensive wetlands; and (3) its
              representative common law system (as contrasted with the State of Louisiana's
              system, which is influenced by civil law).

              Mississippi's Public Trust

                   Mississippi's public trust in submerged lands, vindicated by Phillips
                        41
              Petroleum,    includes an interest in public bathing, swimming, recreation,
              fishing, environmental protection, and mineral development." Despite the fact
              that Phillips Petroleum Co. had been paying property taxes on submerged lands
              for which it had recorded title, the Court held that the submerged lands (and
              their valuable mineral rights) belonged to the State of Mississippi, which had
              never granted the company the rights it was claiming.
                   The Mississippi Supreme Court, in Cingue Bambini Partnership v. State,""
              held that state public trust lands may be augmented by

                   natural    inland   expansion    of  the    tidal   influence... If    over
                   decades ... the tides rise -- that is, the mean high water mark rises
                   (and there is reason to believe this has happened and may continue to
                   happen) -- the inward reach of the tidal influence expands ... [T]he
                   new tidelands so affected accrete to the trust.



                   "See, e.g., Marks v. Whitney, 491 P.2d 374, 380 (1971).

                   "Oregon ex re. State Land Board v. Corvallis Sand and Gravel Co., 429 U.S.
              363 (1977).

                   45 108 S.Ct. 791 (1988).

                   46E.g., Treuting v. Bridge and Park Comm'n of City of Biloxi, 199 So. 2d
              627, 632-33 (Miss. 1967); Miss. code Ann. ï¿½ï¿½ 49-27-3 and -5(a) (Supp 1985) (cited
              in Cingue Bambini Partnershig v. State, 491 So. 2d 508, 512 (Miss. 1986), aff'd
              Phillips Petroleum, 108 S. Ct. 791 (1988)).

                   47 491 So. 2d 508, 519-20 (Miss. 1986), aff'd Phillips Petroleum Co., 108
              S.Ct. 791 (1988).

                                                      282










                                                                      Fischman and St. Amand

                 On the other hand, artificially created water courses, inlets, marinas,
            and other non-natural alterations to private land do not cause ownership to pass
            to the state public trust, even though they become subject to the ebb and flow
            of the tides. This finding was not appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court with the
            other issues in Phillips Petroleum.

                 Therefore, in Mississippi, as seas rise, ownership of new submerged land
            passes to the state.   However, there is no existing state legal doctrine that
            imposes a public interest in lands that lie below sea level but that are not
            subject to the ebb and flow of the tides due to bulkhead protection. Also, to
            the extent that one could argue that sea level rise caused by the greenhouse
            effect is not a natural event, then the state may not be entitled even to the
            submerged land. However, the natural/artificial distinction seems to be as much
            based on rate of change as anything else.      Since sea level rise will occur
            slowly (over the course of decades), it may be regarded as a natural change
            because of the gradual way the alteration to the shoreline occurs.

            The Expanding Public Trust

                 Since the 1970s, many courts and commentators have argued that the public
            trust doctrines should reach beyond the federal navigational servitude and state
            ownership of submerged lands to protect public rights to certain natural
            resources incapable of or inappropriate for private ownership." As the modern
            public trust doctrines evolve along with the problems posed by increased coastal
            wetland loss from rising seas, the reach of public rights may extend to
            privately owned fastlands.    Some courts view the public trust as a dynamic
            doctrine to "be molded and extended to meet changing conditions and ... (that] was




                 4'The seminal article that reinvigorated the public trust doctrine is Sax,
            "The Public Trust Doctrine in Natural Resource Law:           Effective Judicial
            Intervention," 58 Mich.L.Rev. 473 (1970). See also Sax, "Liberating the Public
            Trust from Its Historical Shackles," 14 U.C.D.L.Rev. 185 (1980); Stevens, "The
            Public Trust:     A Sovereign's Ancient Prerogative Becomes the People's
            Environmental Right," 14 U.C.D.L.Rev. 195 (1980). Criticizing the expansion of
            the public trust doctrine at the expense of private property rights are Huffman
            "Avoiding the Takings Clause Through the Myth of Public Rights: The Public Trust
            and Reserved Rights Doctrines as Work," 3 Fla.St.U.L.Rev. 171 (1987); rose, "The
            Comedy of the Commons:   Custom, Commerce, and Inherently Public Property," 53
            U.Chi.L.Rev. 711 (1986).
                 The most widely cited court decision implementing the broader notions of
            the public trust is National Audubon Society v. Superior Court of Alpine Co.,
            658 P.2d 709 (Cal.), cert. denied 104 S. Ct. 413 (1983) (incorporating public
            trust considerations into the existing state system of water rights by balancing
            reasonable, beneficial uses of water with competing public interests, such as
            environmental protection). See National Audubon Society v. Department of Water,
            858 F.2d 1409 (9th Cir. 1988) for the latest case in the ongoing Mono Lake
            controversy.

                                                   283








            Legal and Institutional Implications

            created to benefit [the needs of the  public]."" To the extent that the public
            has a right to enjoy the benefits of coastal wetlands, a trust may exist to
            ensure that those wetlands do not disappear under the rising seas.

                 The past two decades have seen the greatest expansion of the public trust
            right in the area of recreation.    Where the traditional public trust extended
            only up to the high-water line and was concerned with navigation, commerce, and
            fishing, recent cases have expanded the trust to include dry-sand areas of
            public beaches for recreation." The extension of the public trust in the State
            of New Jersey above the high-water mark to the area of dry sand that lies
            landward of the high-water mark to the vegetation line (or artificial barrier)
            presents an interesting analogy to the problem of migrant wetland protection.

                 In Matthews v. Bay Head Improvement Ass'n,s' the New Jersey Supreme Court
            confirmed that the public's right to use tidelands includes a variety of
            recreational activities  .52  It found that the use of the dry-sand beach
            immediately above the high-water mark was necessary to the exercise of the
            public right. This ancillary right includes not only the right to use the dry-
            sand beach for access to the tideland, but also "the right to sunbathe and
            generally enjoy recreational activities. 11,13 The court declared that this right
            of use of the dry-sand beach exists on private as well as public lands." The
            public use must be reasonable, and we may expect that some uses that are
            reasonable on public lands are not reasonable on private lands.      Nonetheless,


                 "Borough of Neptune City v. Borough of Avon-by-the-Sea, 294 A.2d 47, 54
            (N.J. 1972) (quoted in Matthews v. Bay Head Improvement Ass'n, 471 A.2d 355, 365
            (N.J.), cert. denied 105 S.Ct. 93 (1984)). See also, Marks v. Whitney, 491 P.2d
            374, 380 (Cal. 1971) ("The public uses to which tidelands are subject are
            sufficiently flexible to encompass changing public needs.").

                 'OSee e.g., Matthews v. Bay Head Improvement Ass'n, 471 A.2d 355, 365
            (N.J.), cert. denied 105 S.Ct. 93 (1984). Not all states share an expansive view
            of the public trust. A recent case in the State of Maine held that a legislative
            determination that intertidal lands (held in fee by private landowners with a
            traditional public easement for fishing, fowling, and navigation) are impressed
            by a public trust that includes a right to recreate is a physical invasion of
            private property that requires compensation of landowners.      Bel 1 v. Town of
            Wells, 57 U.S.L.W. 2590 (Maine Sup. Jud. Ct. No. 5029 3/30/89).

                 5'471 A.2d 355 (N.J.), cert. denied 105 S.Ct. 93 (1984).

                 52 See Borough of Neptune City v. Borough of Avon - by-the-Sea, 294 A.2d 47
            (N.J. 1972).

                 13 471 A.2d at 364.

                 54 In fact, the defendant in the case was a non-profit corporation that acted
            as a quasi-public association.   The court's language regarding purely private
            dry-sand beaches is dictum.

                                                   284









                                                                     Fischman and St. Amand

           the court's tjillingness to impose public rights on private lands to allow public
           enjoyment of existing public trust lands indicates a flexibility that holds
           promise for providing a basis for imposing public trust restrictions - on
           fastlands located upland of existing coastal wetlands.

                Wisconsin, in its celebrated but not widely followed opinion of Just v.
           Marinette Co.,,,5' declared ecological stability to be a public trust imposed on
           private lands.   @n Just, a landowner was prevented from building on his land
           because of its ecological importance as a natural wetland. Because destruction
           of a wetland injures others by upsetting the natural environment, it can be
           considered a nuisance. Abating a nuisance is not a taking. California has a
           similar ecological interest in  its public trust doctrine for tidelands." It is
           important "6o note that there is a difference between prohibiting development of
           a tract of land because of its  existing value as a wetland and prohibiting the
           erectien of a seaviall because of a tract of land's potential to evolve into a
           wetland. Ot-sners are on notice of the natural character of their land, but not
           necessarily of its importance  as a future wetland if the sea level rises.      As
           Professor Sax points out, the sea level rise situation is analogous to
           prohibiting a woodland owner from fighting a forest fire on his property because
           of the benefits to wildlife."

           Enforcing the Public Trust

                Although our consideration of the public trust has been with an eye toward
           finding authority for willing state and federal governments to claim a public
           interest in protecting migrating coastal wetlands, the public trust is sometimes
           applied to compel a government to take or refrain from an action. The classic
           case of this application of the trust is Illinois Central Railroad v. Illinois,"
           where the Court declared invalid a state legislative grant of title to the
           railroad for a major section of the Chicago waterfront. The state was powerless
           to alienate a natural resource as important as Chicago's harbor. Although there
           are exceptions to the rule against alienation of the public trust in the event



                55201 H.W.2d 761 (Wis. 1972).
                "Marks v. Whitney, 491 P.2d 374, 380 (Cal. 1971) ("(O]ne of the most
           important public uses of the tidelands ... is the preservation of those lands in
           their natural state, so that they may serve as ecological units...").
                57j. Sax, unpublished typescript, (undated) (on file with authors).       Cf.
           Miller v. Schoene, 276 U.S. 272 (1928) where a landowner was forced to destroy
           trees to protect a local apple industry from harm. Forcing landowners to refrain
           from building bulkheads to benefit the industries (such as commercial fishing)
           that depend on coastal wetland ecosystems is analogous to the Miller situation,
           which resulted in no taking.
                581 46 U.S. 387 (1892).

                                                  285









            Legal and Institutional Implications

            the transfer is for a public purpose,'59 state inaction that leads to seawalls
            that stop the natural migration of the public trust may be viewed as an improper
            abdication of the public trust.

                  If the government does have the power to prohibit bulkheads, then it may
            be required to exercise that power to fulfill its public trust responsibilities.
            In a series of cases relating to the U.S. Department of the Interior's
            management of Redwood National Park,"' a federal district court found that the
            department failed to meet its fiduciary responsibilities to protect the park and
            required it to fulfill its trust by lobbying Congress for an expansion of park
            boundaries.   The court ordered the department to report back to the court on
            proposals made for more park protection, more management authority, more money
            to purchase land, and more negotiation of cooperative agreements with
            neighboring timber companies (whose practices were causing erosion and
            sedimentation).

                  Although the situation with coastal wetland migration differs from these
            two examples in that publicly owned land is not involved, it is similar in that
            public rights are at stake. The fiduciary duties may arise from different
            sources, but if the trust exists, these cases indicate that it is enforceable
            against the government.

            Conclusion on the Public Trust Doctrine

                  Under the traditional view of the public trust, states that assert public
            ownership of intertidal lands may gain control of new wetlands only if
            landowners let their property fall under the influence of the tide. This is a
            matter of state law. However, property owners who build seawalls before their
            land is inundated will most likely be protected by the fifth amendment.        The
            Kaiser Aetna case warns that, at least in the case of the federal navigational
            servitude, public trust authority does not exempt the government from its
            obligation to compensate a landowner for a taking. The public trust does not
            offer an easy solution to the difficult problem of responding to landowners who
            wish to keep back the sea with bulkheads.

                  Professor Sax describes the primary justification of the modern public
            trust doctrine that protects a wide variety of public resources as "preventing
            the destabilizing disappointment of expectations held in common but without




                  59See e.g, City of Milwaukee v. State, 193 Wis. 423 (1927) (upholding
            Milwaukee's grant to a steel company to develop a public harbor).
                  OoSierra Club v. Department of Interior, 424 F. Supp. 172 (N.D. Cal. 1976),
            398 F. Supp. 284 (N.D. Cal. 1975), 376 F. Supp. 90 (1974). See Wilkinson, The
            Public Trust Doctrine in Public Land Law, 14 U.C.D.L.Rev. 260 (1980) for a
            probing analysis of these cases.

                                                   286










                                                                      Fischman and St. Amand

            formal recognition such as title."' Few courts have recognized explicitly such
            a broad public right over private property. Even those jurisdictions that have
            recognized broad public rights, such as New Jersey and Wisconsin, give little
            indication that they would extend the right to landowners who wish to protect
            the existing character of their property.

                 However, if the public trust lives up to its potential as described by Sax,
            it may be an effective tool in the future for asserting a public right to the
            continuing enjoyment of the benefits of coastal land.              The changing
            circumstances to which a flexible doctrine must adapt62  may demand an explicit
            recognition of the public values served by our threatened natural systems. The
            most effective strategy today for encouraging this evolution in the doctrine is
            to put private landowners on notice of the importance that the public places on
            coastal wetlands and of the role that fastlands will play in the future
            viability of marsh ecosystems.


            LEGAL MECHANISMS AVAILABLE IN OTHER COUNTRIES

                 While application of the legal regime in the United States to the migration
            of coastal wetlands is the primary focus of this paper, the preservation of
            wetland ecosystems in the face of rising sea levels is an issue confronting many
            nations. Legal systems, however, vary in their treatment of property rights and
            coastal protection, and conservation mechanisms available in one nation may lack
            a legislative or constitutional basis in another.     Accordingly, current laws
            that may enable the conservation of coastal lands adjacent to existing wetlands
            in several Atlantic Basin countries are briefly discussed below as examples of
            the adaptability of different legal regimes to meet this problem.

            Argentina

            Provincial Authority

                 In Argentina, all of the area seaward of the mean high tide line, including
            coastal wetlands, is within the public domain.         This littoral region is
            generally under the jurisdiction of the provincial     government, although the
            federal government has jurisdiction over activities affecting navigational uses.
            There are four provinces on the Atlantic Coast and two federal territories--the
            city of Buenos Aires and Tierra del Fuego.       The provinces  and the federal
            territories both have authority to regulate land use and to protect natural
            resources. Private property rights adhere only inland of the mean high-tides
            line, and development is prohibited within the public domain, unless expressly


                 81"Liberating the Public Trust Doctrine From it Historical Shackles," 14
            U.C.D.L.Rev. 185, 188 (1980).
                 12 See Borough of Neptune City v. Borough of Avon-by-the-Sea, 294 A.2d 47,
            54 (N.S-. 1972) (quoted in Matthews v. Bay Head Improvement Ass'n, 471 A.2d 355,
            365 (N.J.), cert. denied 105 S.Ct. 93 (1984)).

                                                   287









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             permitted by the government .63 It appears that in the area below the mean high-
             tide line, provinces can easily prevent the building of seawalls and jetties,
             which would inhibit the migration of coastal,wetlands.

                  Conservation of land inland of the mean high-tide line, however, may
             require compensation.      Expropriation of private property requires full
             indemnification under the Argentine Constitution. The creation of upland parks
             or reserves to enable the migration of coastal wetlands would, therefore,
             clearly require compensation.     However, land use restrictions imposed upon
             private property in the public interest do not require compensation, unless such
             restrictions imply the creation of an easement or servitude.64   The Province of
             Buenos Aires has established a zone 150 meters inland of the mean high-tide line
             in which subdivision and construction are prohibitede,5; this regulation does not
             require compensation.

                  To the extent that prohibitions on building seawalls and jetties result in
             the inundation of private lands due to rising sea level, Argentine case law
             indicates that this would not be considered expropriation, but rather
             noncompensable damage attributable to natural forces.

             Federal Navigation Law

                  As mentioned above, the federal government has authority over the
             navigational uses of waterways.      Under federal navigation law, owners of
             property along navigable rivers or channels apart from the seashore are
             prohibited from developing a 35-meter-wide "towpath" area adjacent to the river
             bed. "   Riverside landowners do not receive any compensation for this
             restriction, since the limitation is considered to have adhered to the property
                            67
             in remote time.    If the river changes course due to natural causes, such as a
             rise in sea level, this protected zone would migrate inland.       This riparian
             provision may be used to allow migration of estuarine wetlands.

             Flood Control Law

                  The Executive Branch ofthe Argentine government may, through its authority
             to issue executive decrees, define floodplains and floodprone areas, establish
             land use restrictions for these areas, and require the demolition of obstacles



                  "See Codigo Civil (Civil code), art. 2340.

                  84 See G. Cano, Legal and Institutional Implications of Adagtive Options o
             Sea Level Rise in Argentina, Uruguay and Spain (1989).

                  8"Decree 9196/50.

                  OeCodigo Civil, arts. 2639, 2640.

                  67 See National Constitution, arts. 14, 17.

                                                    288











                                                                         Fischman and St. Amand

              to the free runoff of water."         In addition, loans and subsidies may be
              established for the resettlement of inhabitants displaced as a result of floods.
              The use of this executive authority, which is in some cases subject to
              legislative approval, could assist in enabling the migration of coastal
              wetlands.

              Brazil

                    Brazil's new Constitution declares the coastal zone to be a resource of
              "national heritage," the use of which must be under conditions that ensure its
              preservation."      How the    government   intends   to   implement   fully    this
              constitutional provision is not yet clear, but there are several existing
              statutory provisions that could be used to preserve coastal wetlands as sea
              level rises.

                    First, the Codigo Florestal     (Forestry Code) has been interpreted to
              prohibit any use of mangrove swamps throughout the country." Second, all flora
              and fauna are considered property of the federal government, which can restrict
              the use of pr 7ivate property in order to preserve areas important for species'
              conservation.'    Therefore, the government has the power, for example, to
              prohibit the building of seawalls to conserve areas for future breeding sites
              for waterfowl. Such land use restrictions do not require any indemnification,
              although expropriation for conservation purposes would require the payment of
              compensation to affected landowners. Third, all beaches are considered to be
              in the public domain, and no use of the land adjacent to the beach may hinder
                                   '12
              the public's access.

              Canada

              Land Use Controls

                    In Canada, protection of natural resources, including coastal wetlands, is
              primarily the responsibility of provincial governments.          The authority to
              institute land use controls also resides with the provinces, including the power
              to enact legislation prohibiting the construction of seawalls or otherwise
              limiting development to permit the inward migration of coastal wetlands. The
              provinces may delegate planning and zoning authority to municipalities.



                    68Codigo Civil, art. 2611.

                    "Constitution of 1988, tit. VII, ch. VI, item VIII, para 4.

                    70S ee Codigo Florestal, law 4771 of Sept. 15, 1965, art. 2, items a.3 and


                    "'See Federal Law 5197 of January 3, 1967; Codigo Florestal, art. 1.

                    72C onstitution of 1988, tit. III, ch. II, art. 20, item IV.

                                                      289








            Legal and Institutional Implications

                  The Canadian Constitution does not require the Dominion or the provinces
            to pay compensation when private lands are expropriated for public purposes."
            Although expropriation without compensation is legal, a common law presumption
            in favor of compensation does exist in the absence of any express legislative
                                                                 '14
            provision for confiscation without compensation.         In addition, the provincial
            legislatures have instituted Expropriation Acts, which authorize compensation
            for the confiscation of private property.

                  Despite the existence of the presumption in favor of compensation and the
            Expropriation Acts, a province can legally enact legislation that both provides
            for the confiscation of coastal lands adjacent to threatened wetlands and
            specifies that no compensation will be paid. Of course, the question remains
            as to whether such legislation would be politically feasible, especially given
            the tradition of compensation upon expropriation.

                  Land use restrictions that may affect a landowner's economic interests,
            but that do not amount to an expropriation, do not carry a presumption in favor
            of compensation."     Provinces or municipalities may prohibit      development that
            would prevent inward migration of coastal wetlands, such as the building of sea-
            walls or jetties. Such legislation does not need to specify        78 compensation for
            any economic loss suffered as a result of those restrictions.          In contrast to
            the expectation of compensation upon expropriation, there is no tradition of
            "takings" law in Canada, and the public is more accepting of stringent land use
                                                                                77
            controls without compensation than it is in the United States.

                  An example of existing restrictions that could be used to conserve coastal
            uplands in anticipation of wetlands migration is found in Quebec Province. The
            Quebec Expropriation Act provides that privately owned land may be reserved for
            public purposes and cannot be developed for a specified number of years. The
            statute, however, does provide the affected landowner with compensation       .7' Such
            a provision could be applied to the conservation of uplands adjacent to current
            coastal wetlands.





                  73 E.C.E. Todd, The Law of Expropriation and Compensation in Canada 32
            (1976); G.S. Challies, The Law of Expropriation 75 (1963).

                  114 Challies at 33.

                  71 See Todd at 24-25.

                  76 Id. at 25.

                  71Conversation with Dr. Jim McCuaig, Canadian Wildlife Service, November 16,
            1989.

                  7'Todd at 12.

                                                     290










                                                                       Fischman and St. Amand

            England

            Land Use Controls

                 In England, the national town and country planning legislation vests in
            the state and its agencies, the local planning authorities, all rights to
            develop land."'   Before developing any land, a landowner must obtain planning
            permission from a government agency, which can be local or central."              No
            compensation is due to a landowner who is unable to obtain planning permission."
            It follows that local and national government agencies may prohibit development
            of lands adjacent to existing coastal          wetlands without providing any
            compensation.

                 Expropriation of private lands, however, does require the payment of
            compensation to the landowner."'    In addition, if planning permission has been
            withheld and, as a result, a landowner's property is rendered incapable of
            reasonably beneficial use, the landowner may serve a purchase notice on the
            district planning authority." Similarly, if planning proposals cause a dwelling
                                                                       114
            to become unsalable, the owner may serve a blight notice.      In either case, the
            planning authority is then required to purchase the property for the existing
            use value." It follows that landowners would attempt to obtain compensation if
            a planning authority's refusal to permit the construction of seawalls or jetties
            caused or threatened to cause the inundation of their property.          Since the
            actual inundation is an act of natural forces, however, it is unlikely that the
            landowners would prevail.

            Coastal Protection

                 The idea of conservation of coastal lands is well established in England.
            A national agency, the Nature Conservancy Council, assists in the management of
            undeveloped coastal areas.     The Council may establish, maintain, and manage
            11natural reserves," which are areas that provide special opportunities for the




                 "Garner, 1986, "Town and Country Planning Law in England and Wales," J.F.
            Garner and N.P. Gravells (eds.), Planning L. in West. Eur. 125.

                 "Id. at 125.

                 81Id.

                 "Id.  at 124-125.

                 83  Id. at 127.

                 '41d.

                 86M.

                                                    291








           Legal and Institutional Implications

           study, research, and preservation of flora and fauna.88     The Council may also
           designate areas to be of "special scientific interest" by reason of their flora,
           fauna, or geological or physiological features.87 While an area of such interest
           may be under private ownership, the landowner is prohibited from carrying out
           activities that are likely to damage the features -of interest without receiving
           the Council's consent.88  Both nature reserves and special scientific interest
           areas may be used to conserve land inland of threatened coastal wetlands.

                Most of the authority to manage coastal. lands, however, rests with the
           local County and District councils. In 1972, the Department of the Environment
           asked the County councils to designate stretches of nationally outstanding
           "heritage coast" and to provide in their land use plans for the long-term
           conservation and management of these coastal lands."" Approximately 40 percent
           of the undeveloped coast is designated as "heritage coast."go County plans vary,
           but, for example, the County of Kent's plan provides that unspoiled coastal
           areas and their adjoining countryside are protected from development that would
           detract from their scenic or scientific value." This county plan clearly would
           assist in enabling coastal wetlands to migrate to the "adjoining countryside."

                In addition, voluntary organizations are also active in the protection of
           English coastal lands.   The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds manages
           in excess of 70 reserves, while the National Trust manages almost 1000 square
                                       112
           kilometers of coastal lands.    The National Trust was created through an Act of
           Parliament, but is supported through private subscriptions, donations, and
           bequests.   Tax concessions are given to private landowners in exchange for
                             113
           property bequests.






                "Burton and Freestone, 1988. Legal Regulation of the Humber, The Humber
           Estuary: Environmental Background 87.

                87 Id. at 67.

                881d.

                "'Waite, 1981. "Coastal Management in England and Wales." In ComRarative
           Marine Policy 66.

                gold .at 67.

                Old.

                92 Id. at 67.

                13 Id. at 73-74.

                                                  292










                                                                        Fischman and St. Amand


            France


            Planning Code

                 While government expropriation of land entitles the landowner to
            compensation in France, land use restrictions may be instituted without
                             94
            indemnification.    Amendments to France's Planning Code in 1986 created a new
            chapter, which requires local authorities in littoral zones to take into account
            the conservation of coastal ecosystems of special interest, including wetlands,
            estuaries, marshes, and breeding sites.9,5 In addition, any activities permitted
            on or near the coastline must      allow for public access to the shore."          In
            undeveloped areas, no building    is permitted within 100 meters inland of the
            highest point on the shoreline, and local authorities may extend this zone       . 97
            New highways must be placed at     least two kilometers from the shoreline, and
            local roads cannot hug the coast unless required by geographical necessity."
            Any act adversely affecting the natural seashore, such as the construction of
            seawalls or jetties, is prohibited, unless it is certified as in the public
            interest and required by the site's topography.9"       By protecting the coastal
            lands adjacent to the shoreline, the Planning Code's restrictions on development
            allow the migration of wetlands.

            Natural Fragile Areas

                 The French political subdivisions, known as Departments, also have the
            ability to designate natural fragile areas where camping and building are
            prohibited. These areas may also be acquired through pre-emption (meaning the
            state has preference over all other buyers), after which they must be kept open
            to the @ublic.   Natural fragile areas are purchases through a tax on building
            permits. 00 Of 25 coastal departments, 22 have designated natural fragile areas,
            and this mechanism could be used to conserve sensitive lands just inland of
            coastal wetlands.



                 94 See Besson-Guillaumot, "Town and Country Planning France," J.F. Garner and
            N.P. Gravells (eds.) in Planning L. West. Eur. 153.
                 "'Foster, 1986. "Current Legal Developments: France," Int.J. Estuarine &
            Coastal L. p. 309.

                 98Id. at 310.

                 97  Id.

                 98Id.

                 99Id.

                 "'Prieur, 1988.    "France:    A Step Towards Comprehensive Programmes for
            Coastal Areas in France," Int.J. Estuarine & Coastal L. 3:161.

                                                    293








            Legal and Institutional Implications

            Seashore Conservatory

                 In 1975, France created a national agency called the Seashore Conservatory,
            which has the power to acquire coastal lands for ecological protection.         The
            Conservatory's main objectives are to purchase natural coastal areas threatened
            by development; to set priorities for sites according to their ecology,
            geography, or l.andscape; and to preserve coastal agricultural lands."'         The
            Conservatory may acguire land by negotiated purchase, pre-emption, eminent
                                  2
            domain, or donation.     Conservatory land must be kept open to the public. The
            Conservatory's   authority,    especially   its   ability   to  preserve    coastal
            agricultural lands, is easily adaptable to the problem of wetland migration.

            Nigeria

                 The law concerning Nigeria's Atlantic coast is contained in a few statutes
            and a handful of common law cases that deal with the rights of ownership and the
            usage of coastal zones. Some provisions and precedents may be applied to the
            issue of coastal wetlands migration.

                 The Public Lands Acquisition Act lists the public purposes for which
            private land may be expropriated, including general public use, and provides for
            compensation. Under the.Land Titles Registration Law, the foreshore is in the
            public domain, unless excepted in the land titles register."'        Likewise,  the
            state also has title to beach land.     104  The government, therefore, has     the
            authority to prohibit construction of seawalls or jetties along the coast. In
            addition, one commentator states that as the sea "advances further into the land
            of the riparian owner, that part of his land that is swallowed by the sea
            together with the new high-water level belongs to the State.11105

                 However, the government also recognizes the customary rights of usage of
            the foreshore and beach by the local indigenous people as a community. While
            the state retains title to these areas, local customary ownership interests
            prevail over individual control.      Case law establishes that individuals or
            private companies will be denied exclusive property and usage   6rights to coastal
            land on the grounds that such land is communal in nature."          It is unclear,
            however, whether government restrictions on the building of seawalls or jetties


                 10'Id.

                 102 Id.

                 103 T.O. Elias, Nigerian Land L. appendix (1971).

                 "'Henshaw v. Henshaw and Org. and Compagnie Francaise, 8 N.L.R. (1927);
            Chief Young Dede v. African Association Ltd. 1 N.L.R. 130 (1910).

                 10'B.O. Nwabueze, Nigerian Land L. (1972).

                 10BAttorney General of Southern Nigeria v. John Holt, 2 N.L.R. 1 (1910).

                                                    294











                                                                     Fischman and St. Amand

            would constitute an interference with these communal uses, or whether such
            restrictions would require compensation as existing coastal wetlands migrate.

                 Swamps and marshes in Nigeria are generally considered unoccupied land that
            may be claimed by the government for public purposes. However, in Amodu Mani
            v. Secretary of Southern Nigeria, 4 N.L.R. 18 (1923), the government wished to
            assert ownership of palm and mangrove swamps and grasslands; the local community
            asserted a claim to the land.     The court held that the government had to
            compensate the local inhabitants, who made significant use of the land for
            cultivation, livestock grazing, and industrial purposes. Substantial ongoing
            beneficial use of the land was the determinant factor.

                 Finally, the Water Sources (Control) Law authorizes the government to
            declare any river, stream, lake, or navigable waterway a "prescribed source of
            water," with which no one can interfere, unless granted prior approval.""
            Estuarine wetlands presumably could be declared "prescribed sources" and allowed
            to migrate as sea level dictates.

            Spain

                 Coastal wetlands in Spain are regulated primarily pursuant to the Coastal
            Law and the 1985 Water Law.     The area seaward of the high-water mark (the
            foreshore)--including coastal wetlands--is public domain in Spain.'08          In
            addition, Spain maintains a 100-meter "police" zone along the coast, where a
            license is required to alter the terrain's natural relief, to engage in
            construction, or to in any way obstruct the water's floodpath."' It would appear
            relatively easy, therefore, to prohibit the construction of seawalls and jetties
            along the coast.

                 For wetlands that fall inland of the foreshore, the water contained in
            wetlands is considered to be public domain, although the bed and other natural
            resources contained in the wetlands, such as flora and fauna, may be privately
            held."' However, all activity in wetlands is subject to government authorization
            or concession."'   Regulations adopted pursuant to the Water Law also provide
            that, in determining the boundaries of a wetland, a natural buffer area may be
                                          112
            delimited around the wetland.      Government permission is also required for



                 107M G. Yakuba, Land L. Nigeria 179 (1985).

                 'O'Spanish Constitution.

                 "'Cano at 12.

                 "OLey de Costas, art 2a.

                 "'Id.

                 112 Reglamento of 1986, art. 275.2.

                                                  295









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             activities conducted within this buffer area."'      This buffer-area regulation
             could be used to conserve areas for wetland migration.

                  While   the   Spanish    Constitution   provides    for   compensation    upon
             expropriation, 114 the imposition of land use restrictions generally does not
             require the payment of compensation to affected landowners.


             CLOSING REMARKS

                  With the inundation of existing coastal wetlands as sea levels rise,
             governments are faced with the problem of allowing wetlands to migrate, while
             avoiding the financial strain of compensating affected landowners.          In the
             United States, a restriction on the development of uplands would have to advance
             a legitimate state interest and preserve some reasonable economic use of the
             property to avoid being classified a compensable taking.        While it would be
             relatively easy to find that such restrictions advance the public's health,
             safety, and welfare, preserving some economic use of inundated property may
             require creative legislative approaches, such as the creation of transferrable
             development rights. Disputes over the extension of the public trust doctrine
             to cover potential new coastal wetland sites may provide the impetus for the
             resolution of the takings issues. The most legally feasible policy option for
             preserving coastal wetlands is to exact a covenant not to build a bulkhead from
             any landowner seeking to develop fastland property in the coastal zone.

                  Other nations generally do not face the issue of compensation when
             implementing restriction on land use. Government prohibitions against building
             bulkheads or otherwise restricting the path of wetland migration would,
             therefore, be easier to introduce from a fiscal perspective.        The political
             feasibility of such restrictions both in the United States and in other nations,
             however, depends in large part on the value placed on diffuse coastal wetland
             benefits.















                  113 See Ley de Aguas, August 29, 1985, ch. V, art. 103.
                  "'Spanish Constitution, art. 33.3.

                                                    296











                       STATE AND LOCAL INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSE
                        TO SEA LEVEL RISE: AN EVALUATION OF
                              CURRENT POLICIES AND PROBLEMS



                                   PAUL KLARIN AND MARC HERSHMAN
                                      University of Washington
                               Institute for Marine Studies, HF-05
                                      3707 Brooklyn Ave. N.E.
                                     Seattle, Washington 98195





            INTRODUCTION

                 Nearly 65% of the population in marine coastal states, or 102.5 million
            people, now live within 50 miles of the coast (Edwards, 1989).              Coastal
            communities are being challenged to accommodate this expanding demand by
            providing the necessary space, facilities, and infrastructure to support the
            swelling population.    Sea level rise further complicates and exacerbates the
            process of planning in coastal communities.

                 A rise in sea level within the predicted ranges of 50-368 cm by the year
            2100 would  subject coastal communities to inundation, increased frequency and
            severity of storms and wave surge, increased rates of shoreline erosion, wetland
            inundation and recession, modification of dynamic coastal physical properties,
            and damage  to or reduction in shoreline protective structures and facilities
            (Davidson, 1988). Some coastal areas have been experiencing a relative rise in
            sea level due to subsidence, reduced sedimentation, and chronic erosion, and are
            already actively pursuing policies to ameliorate their effects. The resulting
            social and economic impacts on coastal communities from an accelerated rise in
            sea level would be unquestionably dramatic and severe.

                 How state and 'local institutions respond to sea level rise is very
            important, since it is at this level of society where the initial impacts will
            be felt and where efforts to mitigate them will occur.       As pressure from the
            public, the media, and political interests increases, coastal resource managers
            and planners may be forced to consider actions to mitigate future sea level rise
            impacts before questions arising from scientific uncertainty are resolved.

                 This study is not concerned with the accuracy of sea level rise predictions.
            Rather, it examines how policy makers and institutions have begun to address the

                                                    297









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             issue. This essay begins with a brief description of the institutional framework
             and decision-making processes of the coastal zone management systems.                it
             summarizes the activities and policies that have been initiated by state coastal
             zone management programs in response to sea level rise.                Responses are
             categorized according to the development of sea level rise as an issue, from its
             initial identification as a problem through the implementation of a policy
             addressing it.     A table showing the level of activities of 24 marine state
             coast'al zone management programs is included. A series of case studies provides
             an exami nati on of the responses of sel ected state programs i n more detai 1 . The
             observations section examines the shared problems and tendencies of state coastal
             zone management programs (CZMPs) as they attempt to address the issue of sea
             level rise. The study concludes with a discussion of policy trends and what they
             might suggest for future action.


             COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

                   Coastal zone management is broadly interpreted to mean any type of public
             activity, intervention, or interest that is applied to the coastal and marine
             environment and its resources. Management style, either separate for individual
             resources or comprehensive over a wide range of activities and resources, varies
             widely. The comprehensive management systems attempt to integrate policy and
             planning into a balanced program that addresses the multiple uses, environmental
             uniqueness, and economic potential of the coastal zone.          Generally speaking,
             integrated coastal zone management is embodied in an ongoing government program
             charged with resolving the conflicts that arise between the various users and
             interests inherent to the coastal environment (Sorensen et al., 1984).

                  The United States was the first nation to fully develop such a program on
             a national scale (U.S.C., 1972).        The Federal Coastal Zone Management Act
             addresses a broad range of issues:         protection of environmental resources,
             managing development to minimize loss from flooding, setting priorities for
             water-dependent    uses,   providing   public   access,    redevelopment   of    urban
             waterfronts, the simplification of management procedures, and enhanced public
             participation in decisionmaking.       The act provides money for state programs
             through section 306 grants, which are intended for program administration,
             technical studies, local grants, etc.

                  The act envisions collaborative planning among federal, state, and local
             authorities. It is intended to instill a broader "national" interest into the
             process of coastal land use planning -- a responsibility that has traditionally
             resided with local governments. As conceived in the act, coastal zone management
             is a state responsibility. However, implementation is often delegated to local
             governments, with the implicit assumption that local authorities accept the
             state's role as their partner in regulating land use in the coastal zone (Brower
             and Carol, 1984).     Federal activities must be conducted in a manner that is
             consistent with the federally approved state programs -- a provision that
             requires collaboration with federal agencies.



                                                      298











                                                                           Klarin and Hershman

                 Other federal laws require the involvement of numerous federal agencies and
            departments in coastal zone decisionmaking. The National Environmental Policy
            Act requires all federal agencies to consider the environmental effects of their
            decisions.   The Clean Water Act involves the Environmental Protection Agency
            (EPA) through such programs as its Office of Marine and Estuarine Protection.
            The Army Corps of Engineers has the longest and most direct involvement in
            coastal development through the authority vested in the Corps by the Rivers and
            Harbors Appropriations Act of 1899. The National Flood Insurance Program brings
            the Federal Emergency Management Agency into the process through coastal
            floodplain management.    The Upton-Jones Act created a voluntary program that
            provided monetary incentives for property owners to remove damaged structures
            or relocate threatened structures in hazardous flood areas. The Coastal Barriers
            Resources Act of 1982 creates a national system of coastal barrier areas within
            which the federal government prohibits federal subsidies for infrastructure and
            hazard insurance; in addition, it requires congressional action to include new
            areas within the system.

                 The management of hazards in the coastal zone is a major feature of coastal
            zone management programs. The hazards include inundation and storm damage to
            private property and public infrastructure and longer-term risks from erosion,
            bluff destabilization,     and   saltwater   intrusion.     Coastal   hazards    can
            significantly alter critical coastal environments and eliminate recreation and
            transportation resources. In this sense, the hazards issue raises many other
            issues important to coastal zone management, such as protecting coastal habitat,
            preserving access to shorelines, and ensuring coastal development.      Because sea
            level rise will exacerbate all other coastal problems, it becomes an issue that
            is central to the concerns and objectives of coastal zone management. Developing
            strategies that fulfill the basic goals of coastal zone management while
            addressing the potential threat from sea level rise will require policies that
            are politically feasible, conditionally flexible, and strategically forward
            looking.    How the system responds will determine the future of our coastal
            communities.



            RESPONSE CRITERIA AND RANGE OF POLICY INITIATIVES

                 Table I classifies how state CZMPs have responded to the concerns about sea
            level rise.    CZMP responses fall into four stages:     (1) official recognition
            and assessment of problems and issues; (2) new public and intergovernmental
            processes; (3) existing adaptable regulation; and (4) new policies responding
            to sea level rise. The four steps in the process evolve from formal recognition
            to direct policy response.     The separation between categories is not always
            clearly evident, and it requires some subjective judgments on the authors' part.
            Nevertheless, it provides a method for organizing a broad and dissimilar range
            of activities into a form that is more easily accessible and from which an
            analysis may be drawn.





                                                    299









              Legal and Institutional Implications


                             Table 1. State CZMP Responses to Seal Level Rise


                     Official recognition
                       and assessment of         New public and           Existing       New policies
                     problems and issues           intergovern-         adaptable        responding to
                           by CZMP              mental processes        regulation       sea level  rise


     Alabama                 No                         No                Partial               No
     Alaska                  No                         No                   No                 No
     California             Yes                         No                   No                 No
     (SFBCDC)'              Yes                        Yes                   NA                 Yes
     Connecticut             No                         No                   No                 No
     Delaware               Yes                        Yes                Partial               No
     Florida                Yes                        Yes                Partial               No
     Georgia                 No                         No                   No                 No
     Hawaii                 Yes                         No                   No                 No
     Louisiana              Yes                        Yes                   No                 No
     Maine                  Yes                        Yes                   NA                 Yes
     Maryland'              Yes                        Yes                Partial               No
     Massachusetts          Yes                        Yes                   No                 No
     Mississippi             No                         No                   No                 No
     New Hampshire          Yes                         No                   No                 No
     New Jersey             Yes                        Yes                Partial               No
     New York               Yes                        Yes                Partial               No
     North Carolina         Yes                        Yes                  Yes                 No
     Oregon                 Yes                        Yes                   No                 No
     Pennsylvania'          Yes                         No                   No                 No
     Rhode Island           Yes                        Yes                Partial               No
     South Carolina         Yes                        Yes                   NA                 Yes
     Texas                   No                         No                Partial               No
     Virginia'              Yes                         No                   No                 No
     Washington             Yes                        Yes                   No                 No

     NA:   Denotes that the state Coastal Zone Management Program officially considered sea     level rise
           in its policy.
     Partial:   Denotes existing adaptable policies provide partial restrictions on coastal
                development.
     a   Regional authority having limited jurisdiction within California.
     b   Response as coastal state and as participant in Chesapeake Bay Agreement.
     C   State's activities limited to participation in the Chesapeake Bay Agreement.
     Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, N. Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam are not included.







                                                      300











                                                                          Klarin and Hershman

            Official Recognition and Assessment of Problems and Issues

                 This category consists of any activity by the state or local CZMP that
            involves the formal recognition of sea level rise as   an environmental condition
            with implications for that region.      Documentation  may take the form of any
            departmental report, memo, newsletter, executive       proclamation, legislative
            finding, or other official statement to the effect that sea level rise is a
            contributing factor to coastal hazards and erosion. Though program managers and
            planners may be personally familiar with the issue, problem recognition as it
            is being used here requires that sea level rise be    referred to in an official
            document describing its climate origins and potential impacts.

                 Six states have not officially recognized sea level rise as a problem worthy
            of attention:   Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.
            Of these, Mississippi is in the initial stages of planning a sea level rise
            workshop in the coming year (Mitchell, 1989).      Connecticut has not taken any
            official steps. However, in 1987 the Town of Fairfield held a two-day symposium
            on sea level rise attended by state and federal officials, some of whom made
            presentations (Bienkowski, 1989). The reasons given for this lack of official
            recognition or response include concern for more immediate and urgent matters,
            limited resources and staff expertise, the belief that current policies are
            adequate for addressing the problem, and political constraints inhibiting the
            coastal zone management program's ability to effectively attend to all of its
            responsibilities (Hightower, 1989; Marland, 1989; Miller and Leatherman, 1989).

                 There appears to be no correlation between the threat sea level poses for
            a particular state and its response. Nor has a common institutional feature been
            found in the states that have not yet recognized sea level rise. Some states
            that have yet to actively respond, such as Georgia and Connecticut, could face
            significant problems in the event of sea level rise. Several states with less
            exposure to damage, inundation, and loss of property -- such as Oregon and New
            Hampshire -- have already initiated studies of the implications of sea level rise
            for their coastlines.

                 Eighteen coastal states have recognized sea level rise as an event with
            implications for their coastal areas. In most cases, the state CZMP makes the
            initial recognition and subsequently guides the process of researching and
            assessing the impacts that sea level rise may have for the state or region. The
            California Coastal Commission report, "Planning for an Accelerated Sea Level Rise
            Along the California Coast," issued in 1989, is typical of the initial efforts
            seen in many states.    It contains an overview of the scientific theories and
            findings concerning climate change and sea level rise, the range of possible
            impacts on the state's coastal resources and environment, a review of available
            policy options, and an assessment of further research needs.        These initial
            studies and reports consistently point out the uncertain nature of the problem
            and often avoid analyzing the alternative policy choices -- in some cases
            skipping over them completely. Hawaii, one of the first states to address a sea
            level rise, has yet to develop specific policy recommendations as called for by
            the state's CZMP report and the Senate resolution that ordered it in 1984.


                                                   301









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             New Public and Intergovernmental Processes

                  This category refers to the systematic process of agenda setting and policy
             formulation. This includes efforts to build a consensus through a task force,
             legislative hearings, or a series of public workshops. Efforts to inform local
             governments and affected citizens are instrumental in the process and are
             designed to integrate the views and considerations of the public and other
             interests into the formulation of a policy response.

                  At this stage, the issue has progressed to the point of being recognized
             as both salient and legitimately of government concern. It is formally addressed
             by a wide range of decisionmakers who must take an active part in considering
             what, if any, type of policy should result. Also, the participation of both the
             public and private sectors and the types of forums within which the issues will
             be contested are established at this stage. Who gets involved and to what extent
             they participate in the formulation of policy determines who will have the
             authority and how that policy will eventually be implemented. There is evidence
             of new agenda-setting processes in 14 coastal states.

                  In New York, the Long Island Regional Planning Board has recognized sea
             level rise as a causal factor in flooding and erosion in its South Shore Hazard
             Management Program.   Mandated by the New York State Department of State to
             prepare a comprehensive program addressing chronic erosion and severe storm
             events, the board is trying to develop strategies and policies that would
             integrate the federal, state, and local interests into a coordinated response.
             Its goal is to focus on long-term (i.e., 30- to 50-year) planning strategies
             based on land use planning policies and taking into account the local geomorphic
             conditions (N.Y.D.S. 1988). The board has outlined a preferred management plan
             based on strategic retreat, selective fortification, and conditions for new
             development.  It has inaugurated a series of workshops, in conjunction with the
             state Sea Grant Program, involving coastal engineers and researchers and focusing
             on technical and scientific topics. The New York/New England Coastal Zone Task
             Force sponsored a study evaluating the long-term economic impacts of various
             options for controlling chronic erosion, which was to be used as a model for
             evaluating policy alternatives. That study, "Developing Policies To Improve the
             Effectiveness of Coastal Floodplain Management," compared the costs and revenues
             associated with various responses under different sea level rise scenarios.

                  In Oregon, the issue of sea level rise is one of many being addressed by
             the state's Task Force on Global Warming. The state's Department of Energy has
             prepared a report, "Possible Impacts on Oregon from Global Warming." The report
             examines the impacts of sea level on selected Oregon coastal communities, but
             makes no reference to policy strategies or responses, except to say that the
             price of protection may be too high. Oregon's Department of Land Conservation
             and Development is the agency through which the CZMP is implemented, and it has
             not issued any official report of its own on the issue.

                  The State of Washington's Shorelands Division of the Department of Ecology
             has formed a sea level rise task force. The task force has initiated a number
             of technical studies and a policy alternatives study in an attempt to establish

                                                   302










                                                                         Klarin and Hershman

           a comprehensive understanding of the issue. One of the primary features of the
           Washington task force is the effort to involve other state agencies, local and
           regional governments, environmental groups, and private commercial interests into
           the process of establishing the policy agenda (Canning, 1989).

                 Similarly, Delaware is establishing a new comprehensive beach management
           policy based upon the recommendations of the Beaches 2000 planning group and
           citizens' advisory committees. The recommended plan would be a strategic retreat
           policy consisting of beach renourishment programs, setbacks based on historical
           erosion rates, postflooding redevelopment restrictions, and public land
           acquisition programs.

           Existing Adaptable Regulations

                 This category includes statutes, codes, or rules that are designed to be
           effective regulatory instruments within a range of environmental conditions.
           They may be regulations that are intended to cope with conditions like those that
           would result from sea level rise. Examples are a setback requirement established
           according to a physical feature, such as tideline, that is periodically
           recalculated, or a law that prohibits redevelopment of a hazard-prone area.
           While not specifying sea level rise as the causal factor, the practical
           application of such flexible regulatory instruments would effectively limit
           development in response to changing environmental conditions.

                 There are many instances where existing policies may be responsive to sea
           level rise.   Seven coastal states have setbacks that are based on an average
           annual recession rate derived from a multiplier of the annual erosion rate. Of
           these, North Carolina could be characterized as having the most progressive and
           adaptable setbacks, since it has the most thoroughly defined baseline for
           measuring setbacks that are adjusted periodically to account for changes in the
           shoreline.   It also restricts the size of the structure based on its distance
           from the baseline (N.C. CAMA, 1989). Setbacks calculated on erosion rates are
           designed to recognize the ongoing erosion of the shoreline; thus, they would be
           responsive to changes in sea level.         The Rhode Island Coastal Resources
           Management Program lists historic sea level rise as one of the contributing
           factors for erosion in its Shoreline Features section. The state has variable
           setbacks equal to 50 feet or the erosion expected in 30 years (assuming current
           trends), whichever is greater.       It uses various physical features of the
           shoreline, such as dune crests and vegetation lines, as the baseline from which
           the setback is measured.

                 The construction control line in Florida demarcates an area bordering the
           shoreline within which certain building standards and permits are required. The
           line is periodically recalculated for each county to account for changes in the
           shoreline.   In some states, a static setback control line is established. These
           setbacks do not reflect dynamic changes in the shoreline.         For example, in
           Hawaii, where the setback is 40 feet from the highest wash of the waves, the line
           of protection can easily be erased by severe storms (Noda, 1989).



                                                   303








             Lega7 and Instftutiona7 Imp7ications

                  The Texas Open Beaches Act, which will be discussed in the case studies,
             states that any property seaward of the vegetation line is open to public access.
             Many property owners have found their homes on the wrong side of the line after
             a storm, and are prohibited from repairing or rebuilding their damaged structures
             (Martin, 1989).   While the law forces the eventual abandonment of developed
             property in the eroding  beach areas, it does not prevent new development from
             being placed in equally  hazardous circumstances.

             New Policies Responding  to Sea Level Rise

                  New policies can be in the form of a legislative act, regulatory rule, or
             administrative decision wherein sea level rise is identified as a causal
             component of the problem being addressed. It provides a regulatory instrument
             for integrating potential sea level rise considerations into coastal management
             and planning decisions. Though it may be incorporated into a regulatory response
             to chronic beach erosion, wetland destruction, or increased flooding, sea level
             rise is specifically identified as a contributing factor to that problem. The
             resulting regulatory instrument is designed to effectively adapt to the changes
             in the environment brought about as a result of sea level rise.

                  Three states (South Carolina, Maine, and Rhode Island) and the San Francisco
             Bay Conservation and Development Commission have designed new policies that
             respond directly to sea level rise. In each case, the policy and the way it came
             about have similarities and differences. They are all the result of concerted
             efforts on the part of CZMP and other related professional agency staffs, who
             introduced the initial technical research information and initiated the process
             of public debate and political machinations.      However, the types of policy
             outcomes that resulted are dissimilar.

                  South Carolina, which will be discussed in the case studies, has established
             setbacks based on current erosion rates very similar to those of.North Carolina.
             The difference in categorization is that South Carolina stipulated the role of
             accelerated sea level rise in the new statutes. Maine, under its Sand Dune Law,
             has restrictions on the size and density of new development in hazardous areas
             and limits the construction of structural protection devices like seawalls and
             revetments (Dickson, 1989). It also restricted permits for extracting water from
             the coastal aquifers in order to protect them from saltwater intrusion. The San
             Francisco Commission amended its Bay Plan to establish a new permit requirement
             for development. Future structures will have to meet engineering standards that
             could withstand increased water levels.    The Commission did not establish any
             fixed estimate of sea level rise and each project is evaluated on an individual
             basis by a technical engineering review board (BCDC, 1989).


             CASE STUDIES

                  The need to explore and examine the response of coastal zone management
             systems to the issue of sea level rise becomes more significant as public
             officials and private interests begin to struggle with its implications. In the
             early stages of policy development@ this is best done through a series of case

                                                   304










                                                                         Klarin and Hershman

           studies. As events progress, it is necessary to take an inductive measure of
           the process that is driving new policy-making activities. An examination of a
           broad range of experiences provides a more comprehensive understanding of the
           context within which issues are being addressed and policies are being formed.

                The case studies that follow were chosen to illustrate the variety of ways
           in which state CZMPs have responded to sea level rise.     The first case, South
           Carolina, is an example of a program that has new policies controlling
           development and land use practices in response to sea level rise.         That is
           followed by Florida, which is in a transitional phase of policy development.
           Texas, on the other hand, has not begun to address the problem of sea level rise
           and has no,mechanisms in place that are capable of doing so comprehensively.

           South Carolina'

                In South Carolina, the issue of sea level rise has been entwined with the
           chronic coastal erosion problems that have plagued that region for decades.
           Coastal flooding and inundation problems caused by natural processes, in this
           case the geomorphic transformation of the barrier islands and subsidence, are
           being exacerbated by rapid development. In 1984, Charleston was the site for
           an EPA study about the impacts of sea level rise. Numerous other studies were
           conducted over the next few years, all of which confirmed in ever greater detail
           the risk that was posed by sea level rise for coastal communities in that state.
           A symposium on sea level rise that same year brought forth strong opposition from
           local interests concerned with the negative impacts that any action might have
           on development and property investments.

                The issue became one of the focal points for the South Carolina Blue Ribbon
           Committee on Beachfront Management, which was formed in October 1986 to
           investigate the problems of beach erosion and to propose long-term solutions.
           The committee consisted entirely of representatives from coastal county and
           municipal governments. A major storm on New Year's Day of 1987, which destroyed
           numerous structures and vastly accelerated the erosion process, increased public
           awareness and ameliorated the political conditions for new coastal development
           policies.

                The coastal zone program in the state is administered by the South Carolina
           Coastal Council under the Coastal Tidelands and Wetlands Act of 1977. One of
           the committee's findings was that the Council was unable to effectively implement
           the legislation because it was not given sufficient authority over development
           in the beach and dune areas.       Consequently, property owners were building
           structures in erosion-prone beach areas susceptible to storms and flooding and



                'References include:     South Carolina Blue Ribbon Committee on Beach
           Management; South Carolina Beach Management Act 1988; Future Sea Level Rise and
           Its Implications for Charleston, South Carolina; The Physical Impact of Sea Level
           Rise in the Area of Charleston, South Carolina; Local Responses to Sea Level
           Rise, Charleston, South Carolina; and Coastal Zone Management Newsletter.

                                                  305









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             were able to obtain permits to build protecti   've devices as well. In addition,
             they were allowed to rebuild houses and structures damaged in coastal storms.

                  The committee's findings stated that the state's coastline was in crisis
             66tause of erosion and that sea level rise was the primary cause. It further
             csalled for the legislature to amend the coastal councils' enabling legislation
             to give it the authority it needs to provide effective stewardship of the coastal
             resources. The committee's findings became the impetus for a legislative bill
             that sought to institute a retreat policy while limiting,the construction of
             Ootective devices. The bill, which amended the originating statute, was opposed
             by.property owners, developers, and lending institutions who felt that property
             values and opportunities would be adversely affected.
                  Though the eventual bill, known as the Beach Manag6ment Act of 1988, was
             slightly diluted and required considerable debate before passage, it did achieve
             much of what was sought.     Effective as of July 1, 1988, setback lines were
             established at 40 times the annual erosion rate for residential buildings. The
             b,aieline for the setback, the crest of the ideal sand dune, was to be determined
             uiing current monitoring and scientific analysis by coastal geologists and
             engineers. It would be reset within 10 years and between every 5 to 10 years
             following. The act calls for a 40-year planning horizon. Within the next 30-
             year period, all vertical seawalls would have to be replaced with an approved
             Protection device, and those that had been more than 50% damaged must be removed
             The bill also requires that property owners renourish beach sand at a rate oi
             oh@ and half times the yearly volume lost to erosion whenever an erosion device
             is; damaged or destroyed.     This requirement promises to become increasingly
             cumbersome and costly.

                  The Beach Management Act also stipulates that local governments create their
             own beachfront management plans. These plans must be consistent with the South
             Carolina Coastal Council's long-range comprehensive beach management plan, which
             the act requires to be developed by 1990.        Any local government failing to
             establish a plan would be subject to the planning guidelines established by the
             Council. If a local government failed to enforce the beach management plan, it
             would lose its eligibility to receive state money forbeach or dune projects.

                  The experience in South Carolina illustrates the successful linkage of sea
             level rise with ongoing and significant issues.,          It also represents the
             persuasive impact of research and information on decisio   *nmakers and the public.
             The role of the Blue Ribbon Committee in advancing the issue on the political
             agenda reflects the necessity of incorporating the perspectives of local
             decisionmakers in the formulation of policy. The advocacy of state regulatory
             agencies, the research and academic community, and key local decisionmakers on
             behalf of the new regulatory regime resulted in its passage.

                  Nevertheless, the state's actions remain controversial among property owners
             and, though it has been sued at least five times for the "taking" of property
             rights, it continues to adhere to a strong retreat policy. The Council's "Dead
             Zone" policy, which restricts the building or rebuilding of structures damaged
             by;' 'storms in an area deemed as highly hazardous, has been successfully challenged

                                                     306










                                                                           Klarin and Hershman

            in a lower court, with one property owner winning $1.2 million.         The policy,
            which states that structures that are more than two-thirds destroyed may not be
            rebuilt, will affect approximately 159 of the 700-900 buildings damaged by
            Hurricane Hugo. The Flood Insurance Administration estimates it will be paying
            $300-$400 million in claims as a result of Hugo, with most of that coming from
            South Carolina.

                  It remains to be seen whether the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Hugo
            will foster a more stringent attitude toward coastal development. Experience
            has shown that such events do provide the impetus for more restrictive coastal
            development policies.     The reconstruction and continued development of the
            barrier islands in the next few years will test the seriousness of South
            Carolina's resolve to enforce its retreat policy.

            Florida2

                  Florida's Coastal Management Program originated in 1981 following the
            state's Coastal Management Act of 1978. The program is based on 27 state laws
            administered through 16 state agencies, with the Department of Environmental
            Regulation as the lead agency in which the Office of Coastal Management is
            housed.   The Departments of Natural Resources and Community Affairs are alto,
            involved in implementing the CZMP.         An Interagency Management Committee',
            consisting of the heads of the agencies with major roles, acts as a board of
            directors in formulating policy and ironing out interagency jurisdictional
            issues.   The  Interagency Advisory Committee consists of staff from various
            agencies who   undertake specific tasks and make recommendations to their
            departments about the program.        The Coastal Resources Citizen's Advisory
            Committee provides an opportunity for public input and review of the CZMP. The
            committee's members are drawn from government, environmental, and other interest
            groups, and private citizens appointed by the governor to two-year terms.

                  Sea level rise poses a substantial threat to Florida, where 70% of the
            population resides along the coast, and which has been experiencing a relative
            rise of 8 to 16 inches per 100 years since 1932. Many areas would be inundated,
            and tens of thousands of people displaced. Major infrastructure, such as coastal
            power generators, roads and bridges, drainage systems, and flood protection
            structures, would be affected. Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers could
            create water resource problems, and a higher water table would exacerbate
            flooding. Shifts in marine ecosystems could alter the distribution of fisheries



                  2References include:    Florida Beach and Shore Preservation Act, 1987;
            Florida Coastal Resources Management Citizens Advisory Committee Annual Report
            1989; Department of Environmental Regulation memo on Coastal Resource;
            Interagency Advisory Committee Sea Level Rise Subcommittee; The Inundation of
            South Florida: Past, Present, and Future; Impact of Climate Change on Coastal
            Resources: Implications for Property Values, Commerce, Estuarine Environments,
            and Fisheries, with Special Reference to South Florida; Cosper, C., personal
            communication.

                                                    307









              Legal and Institutional Implications

              and increase nuisance marine organisms. Precious mangrove habitats and coral
              reefs may suffer deterioration.

                   Sea level rise has become a component of the large debate that concerns
              increasingly dense coastal development and the implications that development has
              for storm-induced damage and coastal         flooding,   erosion control,     beach
              preservation, water resources, subsidence, and a number of other environmental
              and social factors. Though the state CZMP and some members of the Interagency
              Advisory Committee and Citizen's Advisory Committee made a concerted effort to
              have the issue of sea level rise ratified as an issue of special focus for the
              Interagency Management Committee, it was not accepted.         In the Management
              Committee's opinion, responding to sea level rise is a federal problem, and if
              the federal government has made no declaration or directive concerning it,
              Florida has no cause to act. The conventional wisdom of the Management Committee
              was that the state has only two choices -- build a wall or move the buildings
              -- and that no policy existed to do either. It was pointed out by the CZMP staff
              at that time that, although no policy existed, the wall had already been
              constructed in the form of dense development and the protective devices
              associated with it. Furthermore, the state has made it a policy to preserve the
              beaches fronting the developed areas through beach renourishment programs.

                   Florida first implemented its Coastal Construction Control Lines in 1970
              and strengthened them in the Beach and Shore Preservation Act of 1987.          The
              control lines cover a 100- to 1,000-foot band along 795 miles of sandy beaches
              and dune areas subject to the 100-year storm surge.      Implemented on a county-
              by-county basis and requiring a public hearing to be held by the Governor and
              Cabinet, the control lines are intended to mitigate further beach erosion and
              to protect upland properties. New structures within the area designated by the
              control lines must meet building codes designed to withstand a 100-year storm
              and flood tide.   Control lines are set according to current data establishing
              a 30-year erosion zone.    The data are based upon a comprehensive engineering
              study and topographic survey that considers the historic storm and hurricane
              tides, wave surge, beach and offshore contours, erosion trends, the dune or
              bluffline, and existing development. Counties are allowed to establish zoning
              and building codes in lieu of the control lines, provided they are found adequate
              by the Department of Natural Resources to serve the same function.

                   Simultaneously, the legislature created the Beach Management Fund and
              allocated at least $35 million for the Department to use annually toward erosion
              control,   hurricane    protection,   beach    preservation,   restoration,     and
              renourishment.   In fiscal year 1988-89, the state legislature approved $13.3
              million for beach renourishment projects, which, when added to federal matching
              funds, amounted to almost $30 million.     These funds finance the renourishment
              projects that serve as the state's primary method of erosion control and
              shoreland preservation. The local government is required to fund 25% of the cost
              for any projects deemed necessary by the Department of Natural Resources. The
              state also uses the fund to pay for its share of federally approved erosion
              control renourishment projects.     Florida has also implemented a public lands
              acquisition program over the past decade, buying beach property for public
              recreational uses and resource protection.

                                                     308











                                                                           Klarin and Hershman

                  The recent onslaught of Hurricane Hugo has posed some questions and
            opportunities for Florida. An increase in the number and severity of tropical
            storms has been predicted as a result of climate-change-induced warming of
            surface water and sea level rise. The extensive damage seen in South Carolina
            may be small compared to the level of damage that would have resulted if the
            hurricane had struck South Florida.      The state is now beginning to consider
            whether its current post-storm reconstruction practices are adequate for the
            protection of life and property after such a storm. The implications for areas
            such as Florida, with its low beach profile and porous substrate, are serious.
            While the control lines have prevented many poorly conceived and designed
            development projects from being built, post-storm redevelopment has not been
            limited to any degree, and many property owners have used grandfather clauses
            to rebuild in areas susceptible to storm damage and flooding.

                  Currently, the state CZMP, in conjunction with the research community, is
            planning to conduct a symposium on sea level rise as part of the statewide
            coastal conference in hopes of attracting the participation of technical experts
            and planners. They are also submitting a grant request for federal funds under
            section 306 of the Coastal Zone Management Act to conduct a study of the regional
            impacts of sea level rise on the Tampa Bay area.

                  Florida faces some hard choices and difficult problems, regardless of
            whether sea level rise predictions hold true. The rapid and dense development
            of its coastal areas has exacerbated environmental problems and has frustrated
            hazard mitigation efforts. Attempts to address those issues naturally clash with
            the pressure for more development. Officials within the state's CZMP, public
            interest groups, and others who support programs that would provide for more
            comprehensive planning and stricter controls on coastal development find it very
            difficult to muster the necessary political support.         Current policies are
            limited to storm-proof building requirements and extensive beach preservation
            and renourishment programs.      The value of Florida's beaches and shorefront
            property make this a predictable outcome.         Sea level rise, if it ever is
            seriously addressed, will probably "piggyback" onto more immediate and tangible
            issues, such as hurricane mitigation and post-storm redevelopment policies.

            Texas'

                  Texas is suffering from chronic erosion along 60% of its 400-mile shoreline,
            consisting largely of barrier islands. Decreased sediment supply, subsidence,
            and relative sea level rise, compounded by intense storm events, cause some areas
            to lose up to 50 feet per year. Despite the considerable risk this may pose to
            valuable property, infrastructure, fisheries, and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway,
            the state has been reluctant to invest in coastal projects that may mitigate the
            erosion process.



                  3References for this case study include:          Texas Beaches and Dunes
            Regulations Chapter 63; Martin and Dearmont in Texas Shores; Texas Shorelines
            Newsletter; Hightower, M. and Bright, T., personal communications.

                                                    309









                  Vand Institutional Implications

                  'Texas has not developed a federally approved CZMP and has no comprehensive
             Atte'Wide program addressing coastal -resource protection and development. After
             *44.demise of the Texas Coastal and Marine Council in 1985, no institutional
             Whanism was left in the state to deal with coastal issues. Attorney General
             K"'Cross stated that there is a vacuum in-the state in terms of managing its
               ttal resources. Although at least 10 state and federal agencies are involved
             W.coastal matters, there is no consistency or lead authority, and local
             Communities retain almost total control over land-use planning and development
             ;*tegies, with very little outside guidance.         The response of many local
             Ownities faced with erosion problems is to transfer it down the beach by
             @"king some hard protective solution that aggravates the problem by reducing
             natural sediment movement.
             V
                  In the case of Sargent Beach, a 10-mile strip of shoreline fronting the Gulf
             Intracoastal Waterway and resting upon a mud base, the erosion rate exceeds 100
             feet.,per year.  The Army Corps of Engineers, charged with the responsibility
             fw-'the waterway, may require anywhere from 5 to 15 years to study, plan, and
             respond to the problem. Meanwhile, there is a possibility that the area may be
             1.0'eluded in the Coastal Barriers Resource System and become ineligible for
             federal funds for projects that would restore the beach or move the channel.
                  In recognition of the loss of approximately 12.5 square miles of land during
             thd-,past century, the Galveston Bay area was the site of a 1984 EPA-sponsored
             OWY, "Coastal Geomorphic Responses to Sea Level Rise: Galveston Bay, Texas,"
             Witherman (1984). Estimates from Titus and Greene (1989) project a cost of $83
             mill-ion for bulkheads and relocations in Corpus Christi should there be a 7-inch
             ri$o in sea level. The cost of renourishing sand on Texas beaches over the next
             ohitory, under that scenario, was estimated at $17.6 billion. Numerous other
             #Vdies have been conducted focusing on the erosion problems along the Texas
             c9sit, but the weight of evidence has not had an impact on coastal development
             pr0tices.

                  Though the state has yet to recognize sea level rise officially, it does
             have a law that inadvertently but effectively reduces the redevelopment of
             'i
             eision-prone beaches. Through the Texas Open Beaches Act of 1959, the public
             *Ahe right to use all beach areas seaward of the vegetation line, and no one
             "y.,Orect barriers to prevent the public from using them. This act will have
               increasing impact as the vegetation line recedes beyond existing development
                     lt of chronic erosion and severe storms. After Hurricane Alicia struck
                  resu
               11983, the vegetation line retreated from 20 to 145 feet. This prompted over
             1661awsuits by property owners against the state, and 15 suits by the state
              4inst property owners who were rebuilding. The courts have thus far upheld
             th state's position, and legal action by property owners challenging the statute
                  taking have failed.    Assistant Attorney General Ken Cross remarked, "We
             didn't create this problem. This is a harsh situation, not because of what we
             014`-but because of Mother Nature."

                                 local communities continue to permit coastal development in
             i.001 on- and hazard-prone areas.     The experience of Texas illustrates the
             ""I ems that result from a lack of comprehensive planning and sound fundamental
             !7
                                                    310








                                                                                    Marin and Hershman

            objectives in coastal development and land-use practices. The legislation that
            is in place acts as a reactive mechanism, creating conflict and further degrading
            the public's perception of the state in coastal affairs. Without s1ghificarft4l
            changes in the pattern of development along the coast, these problems are likely'l"
            to conti nue. Yet there i s 1 i ttl e support for devel opi ng a statewi de program that
            could address these problems, and even less for a federally approved CZMP.
            Ironically, the most effective policy response affecting Texas may eventuall"y
            result from federal efforts to encourage a retreat from areas subject to coastal
            erosion and hazards, such As provi'ded by the Upton-Jones amendment to the
            National Flood Insurance Program and the restrictions on coastal barrier isl'And:
            development established,by the Coastal Barriers Resources Act.


            OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS


            Common Problems

                  All state and local CZMPs share a common set of problems related to                   s 6-a
            level rise. The most prominent is the issue of property rights. The delicat6.,
            balance between private property interests and public policy objectives fs
            becoming increasingly difficult for CZMPs to maintain, as conflicts betwe46
            development and environmental concerns mount. Changes in coastal development
            policies are directly linked to land use planning, and are often percei                 ,ved by
            developers, 'property owners, and lending institutions as a taking of pri                  ,v.Iate.
            property for the general public's benefit for which they should be compensat6d.-
            (See Fishman     and St. Amand this section, this volume.)              Legal chal 1 enges , tu@
            policies that require property owners to yield the use of their property are fa
            be expected.       When the Coastal Barriers Resources Act was being debated '@,iw
            Congress, the    National Association of Realtors and the National Association"0'
            Home Builders    charged that the bill discriminated against coastal property own6'e's."
            and infringed on their property rights (Dearmont, 1989)'.               Policies addressinq@,
            the potential impacts of sea level rise that are sensitive to local property anV'
            development interests and that are on firm authoritative ground are preferred,
            but it is not certain that they are doing the job.

                  Aside from the uncertainties regarding sea level rise, there is a lack of-
            information and data concerning how it may affect particular coastal regions'.
            Without comprehensive baseline data for regional coastal ecosystems and
            geophysical conditions, it is difficult to reliably monitor geomorphic changes.
            Few local governments have the resources to obtain such information, and state'-
            CZMPs are not always able to provide the necessary technical assistance. This-
            contributes to the problem of local implementation once policies are in place.@. -

                  Political constraints are another prominent factor.                   In light of the
            inherent uncertainties of climate change and the lack of regional impact data,*,
            policy- makers are reticent to support controversial initiatives without'@.
            substantial evidence that those policies are necessary and in the publilc
            interest. While CZMPs strain to promote long-term planning policies, many state
            and local officials and private interests are influenced by a different set of


                                                          311









            Legal and Institutional Implications

            dynamics:   short-term economic objectives, electoral cycles, and a reluctance
            to surrender control over the local planning process.

            Common Activities

                 A number of factors are common to many CZMPs responding to sea level rise.
            One is that the issue is usually internally generated by key professional staff
            within the CZMP network. Often staff members are responding to peer pressure,
            as concern about climate change has raised the concern about sea level rise among
            coastal officials, researchers, and the public throughout the nation and the
            world.   Key staff people become policy entrepreneurs, actively promoting the
            issue and establishing a network among other agencies, technical experts, and
            local governments.

                 Section 306 grants under the Coastal Zone Management Act are the primary
            source for funding the initial technical studies and program activities related
            to sea level rise. Under a section 306 grant, up to 30% of the grant must be
            spent on projects that result in "significant" program improvement, rather than
            ongoing program implementation. Funding for followup studies and research must
            be sought from state sources or through federal agencies, like EPA or the Federal
            Emergency Management Agency, to conduct research studies related to their
            particular areas of concern.     The availability of funding for'baseline data
            research and monitoring is critical to the success of CZMP efforts to develop
            policy responses to sea level rise.

                 Typically, sea level rise is linked to existing programs and objectives.
            Policies that are based on pre-existing authority are more politically acceptable
            and easier to implement.    The uncertainty of sea level rise is offset by its
            association with a significant existing problem.      The focus of attention is
            transferred to existing long-term objectives and goals. Be it wetlands, beach
            or dune preservation, or protection from storm flooding, linkage provides
            credibility and alleviates some of the uncertainty by making sea level rise more
            of a present-day issue.     Those issue areas benefit because sea level rise
            heightens concerns about achieving existing program goals. The states that have
            integrated sea level rise into their policies have done so on the basis of pre-
            existing program goals.

            Policy Trends

                 Strategic or adaptive retreat policies are becoming the preferred response
            to sea level rise among state CZMPs. Typically, strategic retreat encompasses
            a range of regulatory activities and programs in the form of a comprehensive
            management and planning program.     There are a number of features common to
            strategic retreat policies, the most prominent being laws or regulations that
            allow the conditional use of property located in areas susceptible to erosion
            and flooding, restrictions on hard structural protection, protection of critical
            environmental areas, and post-storm redevelopment restrictions.          Strategic
            retreat policies also recognize that densely developed areas will require some
            form of structural protection, while the dynamic geologic processes should not
            be impeded-in less developed and undeveloped coastal areas.

                                                   312











                                                                         Klarin and Hershman

                The use of setbacks based on historical erosion rates, like those in South
           Carolina, and restrictions on coastal development size and density as found in
           Maine, are attempts to provide an opportunity for property development in a
           manner consistent with the long-term goals of the CZMP. Allowing the conditional
           use of the property avoids some legal challenges and reduces the opposition of
           property owners.   Implementing such regulations requires a mapping program to
           establish a baseline and a periodic monitoring program to track the geomorphic
           changes in the coastline. As the relative sea level changes, the setbacks can
           be adjusted accordingly.

                The use of hard structural protective devices is increasingly restricted,
           especially in areas considered to be critical environmental resources like sandy
           beaches, dunes, and wetlands. Many states require property owners to use non-
           intrusive protective measures, such as planting grasses or building artificial
           dune barriers, rather than seawalls and revetments. In many states, critical
           environmental resources are areas that receive special protection in the form
           of buffer zones and building restrictions. Ecosystem restoration programs using
           "soft" engineering strategies, such as revegetation, are becoming more prevalent.
           Conservancy land acquisition programs, both public and private, are another
           innovative way of preserving critical habitats and environments.

                Post-storm redevelopment policies that require structures to be moved or
           abandoned if they receive substantial flood damage and are susceptible to
           continued flooding are also instrumental in forcing a retreat.      Another means
           is to transfer the real cost of owning coastal property to the owner by removing
           the subsidy provided by federal flood insurance coverage for structures in
           hazardous locations. Requiring property owners situated in hazardous areas to
           bear the part of the cost for improvements to the infrastructure that serves them
           is another way of transferring the cost to the property owners. The use of tax
           incentives and disincentives to promote the preservation of undeveloped property
           is another vehicle for controlling land use, as are incentives to locate or
           relocate structures in preferred areas and disincentives for placing them in
           hazardous areas.

                Renourishment programs are an important component of strategic retreat
           policies because they help preserve the status quo by selectively maintaining
           the beachfront. Programs like those in Florida, designed to preserve the beach
           as a method of hazard mitigation, also distribute the costs over a wider base.
           Renourishment programs are a trade-off as long as they are economically feasible.
           Like other soft engineering strategies, renourishment provides an environmentally
           acceptable method of preserving beachfront for areas that are simply too valuable
           not to protect.

                The federal government has provided some support for states seeking to
           initiate retreat policies by implementing similar strategies within areas where
           they have authority.    The Upton-Jones Act is a voluntary program under the
           National Flood Insurance Program that seeks to change redevelopment practices
           by providing direct monetary incentives not to rebuild, but to tear down or move
           structures in highly hazardous coastal flood zones. It received only moderate
           acceptance during the first two years of the program, with nearly half of the

                                                  313








              Legal and Institutional Implications
              I@,9 claims coming from the state of North Carolina (Buckley, 1989). The Coastal
              garrfers Resources Act eliminated federal expenditure's for flood and disaster
              insurance and restricted public expenditures for infrastructure on designated
              un'developed barrier islands.      It requires congressional action to expand the
              barrier system, and local officials and congressional representatives often
              resist federal expansion into state jurisdiction.

                    Sea level rise poses both a problem and an opportunity for state CZMPs.
              State coastal zone management programs normally do not have the authority or the
              9
               olitical leverage to directly control local land use and planning.             They are
               ,ependent on a partnership with other federal and state authorities, local
             AdvOrnments, and private interests.          CZMPs must continue to work toward the
              multiple and sometimes contradictory objectives of the Coastal Zone Management
              Act. Yet, they are the one institution capable of addressing the issue of sea
              Mvel rise comprehensively and systematically. Linking sea level rise to more
              immediate and tangible issues provides an opportunity for      CZMPs to increase their
              role in coastal land use policy.         Programs that are able to incorporate sea
              16vel rise -considerations into their overall program, objectives will succeed in
              @@q.aiden:ing the scope and range of the planning process.


              BIBLIOGRAPHY

              Alabama  Department of Environmental Management.         1988.   Administrative Code:.
              D.iv,ision 8 Coastal Program ADEM ADMIN. Code R. 335-8-X,7X,X, amended 1988.
              41'aski Coastal Management Council.       1988.    A.laska Coastal Management Program
              Annual  Report for 1988. Alaska Division of Governmental Coordination.
              ATAka   Division of Governmental Coordination. 1989. Ala        s'ka Coastal Management
              Program Statutes and Regulations.
              Anderson, S.    1989.   Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Programs, Vi-rginia.         Personal
              communication, July 1989.
              den'bl t, J.     1989.      Massachusetts Coastal      Zone 'Management.        Personal
              co*u1nicat-ion,  February 1989.
              @Ia,bchfield, J.   1989. San Francisco BCDC. Peirsonal             cation, March 1989.

              Bi*enkows,ki ,J.   1989.    Fairfield Connecticut Planning Commission.          Personal
              66MImuhication,  August 1989.
                                                                              I
              Boothroid, J.    1989. University of Rhode Island. Personal communication, July
              1`918 9

              Bright, Tom.    1989. Texas Sea Grant. Personal communication, September 1989.

              Brooks, Christopher.        1989.    South Carolina Coastal Council.            Personal
              communication, May 1989.

                                                        314










                                                                                    Varin and HersboW

             Brower, D.J., and D.S. Carol. 1984. Coastal Zone Management as Land Planningd;
             National Planning Association. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina
             at Chapel Hill Center for Urban and Regional Studies.

             Buckley, M. 1989. FEMA Office of Risk Assessment NFIP. Personal communicatioot@
             October 1989.

             Canning, D.J.         1989.    Washington Shorelands and         CZM Program.        Personal
             communication,    January 1989.

             Canning, D.J.     1989. Sea Level Rise in Washington State: Technical Issues Ad
             Preliminary Policy Responses. Paper delivered at Oceans 89 Conference, Septembelt
             25, 1989, Seattle, WA.
             Charette, K.      1989.   New Jersey Dept. of Environmental Protection.              Personal.
             communication,    June 1989.

             Ciborowski, P.    and D. Abrahamson. 1987. Policy responses to climate                 chanodt,
             opportunities and constraints.          In:   Proceedings of the Symposium on         Cl ilrA@e
             Change in the Southern United States: Future Impacts and Present Policy                 Issues.".
             M. Meo, ed. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma.

             Coastal Resources Management Council.            1983.    Rhode Island Coastal Resourc4a
             Management Program.
             Connecticut Coastal     Resources Management Division. 1979. Connecticut Coastif
             Policies and Guidelines. Planning Report No. 30.              Hartford, CT: Department.
             Environmental Protection.
             Cosper, Cindy.         1989.      Florida Coastal Management Program.                Perso6itl-
             communication, June 1989.
             Cromartie, Jeffrey.       .1989.     New Jersey Dept. of Environmental Protectioie-,
             Personal communication, May 1989.
             Davidson, M.A., et al.        Local responses to sea level rise:          Charleston, South.'
             Carolina. In: Proceedings of the Symposium on Climate Change in the Southeft,
             United States: Future Impacts and Present Policy Issues. M. Meo, ed. Normftj
             OK:    University of Oklahoma and U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning AW.'
             Evaluation.

             Davies, D.        1989.     Long Island Regional Planning Commission.                Personal
             communication, April 1989.
             Day, J.W. Jr., and P.H. Templet.             1988.     Consequences of sea level H24i
             implications from the Mississippi Delta. Coastal Management 17(3):241-257i

             Dearmont, L. 1988. Bureaucratic barriers. Texas Shores 21(2):16-28.



                                                           315








             Legal and Institutional Implications

             Delaware.    Amendments to the Beach Preservation Act of 1972.              Regulations
             Governing Beach Protection and Use of Beaches, Chapter 68, Title 7.

             Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, New Jersey
             Department of Environmental Protection, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
             Protection, Delaware River Basin Commission and the Environmental Protection
             Agency, 1988.    Delaware Estuary Program Nomination Package, for the National
             Estuary Program.

             Delaware Environmental Legacy Program.        1988.    Beaches 2000.    Report to the
             Governor. Dover:       Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental
             Protection.

             Dickson, S.M.    1989.   Maine Geological Survey.      Personal communication, April
             1989.

             Dickson, S.M.    1987.   Coastal hazard mapping in     Maine.   Geological Society of
             America Bulletin Abstract 19(l):11.

             Edwards, S.F.    1989.   Estimates in future demographic changes in the coastal
             zone. Coastal Management 17(3):229-240.

             Estevez, E.     1989.    Mote Marine Laboratory, Sarasota, Florida.             Personal
             communication,  May 1989.

             Everts, C.H.    1988.   Effect of Sea Level Rise and Net Sand Volume Change on
             Shoreline Position at Ocean City, Maryland. Moffatt & Nichols Engineers, Long
             Beach, CA.

             Ewing, L.C., et al. 1989. Planning for an Accelerated Sea Level Rise Along the
             California Coast. Report for the California Coastal Commission.

             Florida Coastal Resources Management Citizens Advisory Committee. 1989. Annual
             Report to the Governor, 1988-1989, Coastal Management Section, Dept. of
             Environmental Regulation.

             Florida Beach and Shore Preservation Act. 1987. F.S. 1987, Chapter 161.

             Florida Office of Coastal Management.         1988.    Memo to Interagency Advisory
             Committee on Sea Level Rise Subcommittee on 2/16/88, plan for technical workshop
             on sea level rise. Interagency Advisory Committee.

             Georgia, Rules of the Dept. of Natural Resources, Coastal Division, Chapter 391-
             2-2. 1980.

             Gibbs, M.J. 1986. PLanning for sea level rise under uncertainty: a case study
             of Charleston, South Carolina. In: Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone
             and Global Climate. Vol. 4, Sea Level Rise. J.G. Titus, ed. Washington, DC:
             U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.


                                                       316










                                                                              Klarin and Hershman

            Giese, G.S., et al.    1987. Passive Retreat of Massachusetts Coastal Upland Due
            to Relative Sea Level Rise. Report for the Massachusetts Coastal Zone Management
            Program.

            Gilder, G.    1989.    Alabama Department of Economic Development and Community
            Affairs. Personal communication, July 1989.

            Gissendammer, E.J.     1987.   Coastal resource protection policies and changing
            climate. In: Proceedings of the Symposium on Climate Change in the Southern
            United States:       Future Impacts and Present Policy Issues.            Norman, OK:
            University of Oklahoma and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
            Policy, Planning and Evaluation.

            Hawaii Coastal Zone Management Program. 1984. Effects on Hawaii of a Worldwide
            Rise in Sea Level Induced by the Greenhouse Effect, Report in Response to Senate
            Resolution 137, 1984.

            Hawaii Coastal Zone Management Act, Chapter 205 A.H.R.S. 1977 revised 1989.

            Hawxhurst, P. 1987. Louisiana's responses to irreversible environmental change:
            strategies for mitigating impacts from coastal land loss. In: Proceedings of
            the Symposium on Climate Change in the Southern United States: Future Impacts
            and Present Policy Issues.        Norman, OK:     University of Oklahoma and U.S.
            Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation.

            Hightower, M.    1989. Texas Sea Grant. Personal communication, August 1989.

            Hoffman, J.S.    1984.   Estimates of future sea levels.       In:  Greenhouse Effect
            and Sea Level   Rise. M.C. Barth and J.G. Titus, eds. New York: Van Nostrand
            Reinhold.

            Hoffman, J.S.    1987. Future global warming and sea level rise. In: Iceland
            Coastal and River Symposium. V. Sigbjornarson, ed. Reyjivik: National Energy
            Authority.

            Houlahan, J.M.      1989.   Comparison of state construction setbacks to manage
            development in coastal hazard areas.        Coastal Management 17(3):219-228.

            Leatherman, S. P.     1984.    Coastal geomorphic responses to sea level rise:
            Galveston Bay, Texas. In: Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge
            for this Generation. M.C. Barth and J.G. Titus, eds. New York: Van Nostrand
            Reinhold.

            Long Island South Shore Hazard Management Program.         1988.   New York, Dept. of
            State "Work Program for Hazard Management Program", Long Island Regional Planning
            Board.

            Mack, D.R., and D.J. Canning. 1988.        Washington Dept. of Ecology Memo to Sea
            Level Rise Task Force Members, "Phase I Completion Report", February 21, 1988.


                                                      317








              Legal and Institutional Implications

              Marine Natural Resources Protection Act of 1988. Article 5-A, Section 480.

              Naine Coastal Sand Dune Laws 38 M.R.S.A., Chapter 355, 1987.
              Martin, N. 1988. Living in the coastal zone. Texas Shores 21(2):4-8.

              Martin, N. 1988. Beauty and the beach. Texas Shores 21(l):4-8.

              Martin, N. 1988. Fine line. Texas Shores 21(l):14-15 and 28.

              Maryland, Chesapeake Bay Critical Area Commission, Natural Resources Article 8-
              1808(d) A.C.M. 1988.

              Marland, F. 1989. Georgia Coastal Resources Division. Personal communication,
              July 1989.

              Miller, C.    1989.   Alaska Dept. of Community and Regional Affairs.          Personal
              communication, June 1989.

              Meo, M. 1988. Institutional response to sea level rise: The case of Louisiana.
              In: Societal Responses to Regional Climate Change, Forecasting by Analogy. M.H.
              Glantz, ed. Boulder, CO and London: Westview Press.

              Meier, M.F., et al. 1985. Mass balance of glaciers and small ice caps of the
              world.   In:   Glaciers, Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise Effects of C02 Induced
              Climate Change. Washington, DC: National Research Council, DOE/EV/60235-1.

              Miller, H., and S. Leatherman.         1989.   Developing Policies to Improve the
              Effectiveness of Coastal Flood Plain Management. Report for New England/New York
              Coastal Zone Task Force.

              Mississippi Coastal Program Chapter 8 and Mississippi Coastal Wetlands Protection
              @aw, Revised 1988. Bureau of Marine Resources, Dept. of Wildlife Conservation.

              Mitchell, J.      1989.    Mississippi Bureau of Marine Resources.             Personal
              communication, August 1989.

              Moffatt and Nichol Engineers, Wetlands Research Associates. 1987. Future Sea
              Level Rise: Predictions and Implications for San Francisco Bay, San Francisco
              Bay Conservation and Development Commission.

              National Research Council, Marine Board. 1987. Responding to Changes in Sea
              Level: Engineering Implications. Washington DC: National Academy Press.

              New York Environmental Conservation Law.        1981.   Article 34, Coastal Erosion
              Nazard Areas.
              New York Coastal Management Program. 1985. New York State Coastal Policies,
              New York State Department of State.


                                                        318










                                                                                 Klarin and Hershman

              Noda, E.K. and DHM, Inc.       1989.   Hawaii Shoreline Erosion Management Study:
              Overview and Case Studies.        Report for the Hawaii Coastal Zone Management
              Program.

              North Carolina Administrative Code. 1985. Title 15, Chapter 7 Coastal Areas
              Management.

              Oregon Administrative Rules 660-01-660-31.

              Oregon Task Force on Global Warming.        1989.   Possible Impacts on Oregon from
              Global Warming, Oregon Department of Energy Report.

              Pratt, T. 1989. Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources. Personal communication,
              August 1989.

              Rhode Island G.L.R.I. Chapter 23, 46-23-1 to 19, and section 100 amendments of
              1987.

              San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. 1989. Amendment No.
              3-88 to San Francisco Bay Plan, California Government Code 6605(e).

              San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission.               1988.      Staff
              recommendations to the Commissioners on Bay Plan Amendment No. 3-88 Concerning
              sea level rise in the Bay": for commission consideration on 1/5/89, SFBCDC.

              Shevnell Gallen and Associates, Inc. 1987. Technical Report: Rise in Sea Level
              and Coastal Zone Planning. Prepared for New Hampshire Coastal Program, Office
              of State Planning.

              Snedeker, S.C., and D.P. de Sylva.      1987.   Impacts of climate change on coastal
              resources: Implications for property values, commerce, estuarine environments.,
              and fisheries, with special reference to South Florida.        In: Proceedings of the
              Symposium on Climate Change in the Southern United States: Future Impacts and
              Present Policy Issues. M. Meo, ed. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma and U.S.
              Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. ..

              Sorenson, J.C., et al.       1984.   Institutional Arrangements for Management of
              Coastal Resources, National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior.

              South Carolina Blue Ribbon Committee on Beachfront Management.           1987.     Report
              of the South Carolina Blue Ribbon Committee on Beachfront Management, for the
              South Carolina Coastal Council.

              Texas A&M University Marine Advisory Service. 1988. Texas Shoreline Newsletter.

              Titus, J.G., and M. Greene. 1989. Sea level rise. In: The Potential Effect@
              of Global Climate Change on the United State.          J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds.
              Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.



                                                        319









              Legal and Institutional Implications

              Titus, J.G., et al.       1987.    Greenhouse Effect Sea Level Rise and Coastal
              Wetlands.    Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
              Policy, Planning and Evaluation.

              United States Code 1988. Section 544, P.L. 100-242, code 42 U.S.C. 4013.

              United States Code 1972, P.L. 1451-1464 (1982 and Supp. 111 1985), Coastal Zone
              Management Act.

              Volpe, M. 1989. Long Island Regional Planning Board. Personal communication,
              May 1989.

              Wanless, H.R.    1988.    The inundation of South Florida:        Past, present, and
              future.   In:  OCRM Natural Hazards Issues Study Group Information Memorandum,
              Issue No. 4, June.

              Wilms, R.P. 1989. North Carolina Div. of Environmental Management. Personal
              communication.

              Wilms, R.P.   1988.    The Effects of Global Warming on Coastal North Carolina.
              Presented at AWRA Symposium on Coastal Resources.

              Wisker, G.    1989.    Connecticut Coastal Zone Management Program.            Personal
              communication, August 1989.

              Workinger, V.      1989.    Hawaii Coastal Zone Management Program.            Personal
              communication, August 1989.

              Zabawa, C.F.   1989.   Maryland Shore Erosion Program.       Personal communication,
              March 1989.
























                                                       320










                    ROLE OF EDUCATION IN POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
                          DEALING WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE



                                            MIKE SPRANGER
                          Program Leader for Marine Advisory Services
                                   Washington Sea Grant Program
                                     University of Washington
                                     3716 Brooklyn Avenue, NE
                                         Seattle, Washington





            ABSTRACT

                 Much attention is now focused by government, academia, and the popular press
            on the short-term and long-term effects of sea level rise and other impacts of
            global climate change.    Many uncertainties and much confusion are associated
            with global climate change today. However, despite the ambiguity of information
            and the uncertainty about future events, national and international decisions
            and policies, which deal with limiting and/or adapting to climate change and sea
            level rise, are now being debated and made.

                 Any governmental policies or programs that are adopted will need the strong
            support and endorsement of the local citizenry to be successful. To date, the
            majority of citizens are either unaware of the issues, problems, and potential
            impacts of global climate change, or they are confused by the conflicting
            information that they receive via the mass media.

                 Citizens in both developed and developing countries need to receive
            accurate, objective information about global climate change and its implications.
            More important, not only do citizens need to have a better understanding of the
            processes involved and the implications of global climate change, but they, along
            with the business and industrial communities, also need to receive information
            on what type of local actions can be taken to respond to this issue. Regulation
            alone is not enough.    A long-term pro-active educational response is needed.
            As is the case within the research community, an interdisciplinary, coordinated,
            and international educational program needs to be developed.

                 This paper will . discuss the role of education and the rationale for
            developing a strong, coordinated interdisciplinary educational program to deal
            with the issue of global climate change.   It will discuss the "Extension Model"
            used by the Sea Grant Program as one possible approach. Finally, it will discuss
            other possible educational options and program opportunities.


                                                   321









             Legal and Institutional Implications

             ROLE OF EDUCATION IN POLICIES AND PROGRAMS DEALING WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

                   The potentially devastating impact of human activity on the environment
             has become the international issue of the late 1980s.      It seems that one cannot
             pick up a newspaper or view a television newscast in the United States without
             at least one story devoted to this issue. These stories focus on such problems
             as threats to the climate and damage to our populated coasts and social
             infrastructure due to sea level rise resulting from greenhouse warming; damage
             to plant, animal, marine, and human health from increased ultraviolet radiation
             due to the depletion of stratospheric ozone; extinction of species due to
             tropical deforestation; threats to marine life and human recreation from coastal
             and   estuarine   pollution;   human,   animal,   and   environmental   damage    and
             contamination from nuclear and hazardous waste; and damage to lakes and forests
             from acid rain.

                   Of course, these threats are not really new. Some of the world's leading
             scientists have warned about these global dangers for many years. Global climate
             change is not new either.       Since the dawn of creation, the earth and its
             resources, the climate, and the atmosphere all have changed, since they
             constitute a dynamic system.      But what is new is the concentrated focus by
             government, academia, and the popular press on these issues.

                   Why this new focus? There are many reasons. Technological and scientific
             advances now allow us to better measure, model, and predict what is happening
             within the earth's dynamic systems. The dedication of scientists and managers
             in the 1980s to step beyond their laboratories and classrooms to discuss these
             issues in the public arena has caught the attention of our government officials.
             Major climate events of the late 1980s -- droughts, hurricanes, major flooding
             episodes, evidence of holes in the ozone layer -- have also brought print
             exposure, television air time, and international attention to environmental
             issues. The result is a rising consciousness of the accelerated changes in the
             earth's systems due to man's influence, particularly in the last 100 years.

                   However, there are many unknowns, fierce debate among the scientific
             community about potential impacts, and public confusion about issues of global
             climate change.    Two issues of particular concern to members of the marine
             community are the potential breakdown of the ozone layer and the impacts of the
             greenhouse effect.

                   The predominant scientific opinion today is that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
             destroy the ozone layer, and that the consequences of enhanced ultraviolet
             radiation on the biota are dangerous. Located in the thin stratospheric layer
             some 15 miles above the earth's surface, the ozone layer acts as a protective
             shield from the sun's lethal ultraviolet (UV) rays.        CFCs have been used in
             increasing quantities in a variety of industrial and consumer products because
             of their properties as a stable, inert gas. However, because of this stability,
             they do not break down, but rather slowly drift into the stratosphere. There,
             through a series of complex reactions, they break down, and free chlorine ions
             are released that destroy thousands of ozone molecules. In the last few years,
             scientists have discovered an average annual worldwide ozone loss of 2%, with

                                                     322









                                                                                          spranger

             up to a 50% seasonal loss in the polar regions. The increase in UV radiation
             may be devastating for humans, plants, and animals. For humans, the increase
             in skin cancer may be significant; less is known about the effects on crops,
             trees, and the ocean food chain. The Montreal Protocol was the historic first
             step in regulating CFC production, but it may not be enough. Despite a planned
             phaseout of CFCs to 50% of their levels, many scientists are urging that CFCs
             be eliminated entirely, using substitutes that already exist.

                  The sources responsible for the greenhouse effect are well known:          CFCs,
             deforestation, carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, and methane from
             increased biological activity. There is growing confirmation among scientists
             that global mean temperatures will increase. The latest computer models predict
             an average global increase of up to 5*C, with rises of up to 120C in the polar
             regions.   This temperature change is comparable to the warming since the last
             ice age. Of great concern and uncertainty are regional effects on weather, such
             as storms, and particularly changing rainfall patterns. Sea level may rise by
             one meter in the next 50 years. Our understanding of this problem is poor. New
             models are being developed, but it may be several more years before our
             predictive and analytical tools are any better at forecasting what will occur.

                  The scientific community is embarking on a new research plane that is
             integrated, coordinated, and interdisciplinary. Millions of dollars are being
             spent, or are in the process of being budgeted, for needed research that will
             increase our knowledge of what is happening to the world in which we live. Also,
             despite the paucity of information, scientific debate, and uncertainty of future
             climatic events national and international decisions and policies are now being
             debated and made to deal with the adaptation to global climate change and sea
             level rise.    Clearly, the global climate issue will reach the agenda of most
             major governments in the 1990s, if it has not already arrived.

                  However, any government policies or programs that are adopted will need
             the strong support of the local citizenry to be successful.            To date, the
             majority of citizens are either unaware of the issues, problems, and potential
             impacts of global climate change, or they are confused by the conflicting
             information that they receive via the mass media.

                  Unfortunately, to date not much coordination or thought has been given to
             providing the proper type of citizen involvement and educational effort. The
             educational activities that have occurred have been disjointed, with the
             information based more on emotion than fact. Many educational and informational
             activities are occurring, however. Following are a few that have recently been
             brought to my attention:

             Nonprofit Organizations

                  Union of Concerned Scientists (Cambridge, Massachusetts) coordinated a
                  "week of education" with over 200 individual projects in 47 states of the
                  U.S.A., and also developed a "Global Warming Briefing Packet" and an expert
                  speakers list.


                                                      323








             Legal and Institutional Implications

                  Oceanic Society (San Francisco, California) will include in its "Project
                  Ocean" educational curricula the latest information on global climate change
                  and its impacts on the oceans.

                  National Wildlife Federation has developed "Cool It," an informational
                  packet on the greenhouse effect and other global climate change issues.

                  Numerous environmental organizations have developed special newsletters,
                  specifically designed to deal with global climate issues. One example is
                  "Atmosphere," a publication of Friends of the Earth International on Ozone
                  Protection.

             Industry Groups

                  American Society of Mechanical Engineers developed a briefing paper, "Energy
                  and the Environment" (July 1989), which took a broad look at the
                  relationship between energy and the environment.

                  National Association of Manufacturers developed a white paper, "Global
                  Climate Change" (July 1989), that investigated the economic issues impacted
                  by greenhouse gas emission reduction, targets and the risk of premature
                  inadequate causes of actions that may hurt, rather than help an effective
                  international response.

             Many International, National, State, and Local Conferences

                  "Global Natural Resources Monitoring and Assessments:     Preparing for the
                  21st Century" (September 1989 - Venice, Italy).

                  "Globescope Pacific" (October 1989 - Los Angeles       California, U.S.A.),
                  sponsored by the Global Tomorrow Coalition Project, brought 1,000
                  individuals together to begin discussions to launch a decade of creative
                  actions to achieve sustainable development.

                  "Climatic Fluctuations and Their Socio-Economic Impact Concerning Countries
                  Around the Atlantic Ocean" (November 1989 - Toulouse, France).

                  "Environmental 2010"    (November 1989 - Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.),
                  sponsored by the Washington Department of Ecology and U.S. Environmental
                  Protection Agency, brought 600 individuals together to discuss State of
                  Washington environmental issues and priorities and strategies to deal with
                  them.

                  "Northwest Sea Level Rise Conference" (December 1989 - Seattle, Washington,
                  U.S.A.), sponsored by the Washington Department of Ecology to bring state
                  agency officials, politicians, and interested individuals together to focus
                  on the implications of sea level rise for the Pacific Northwest. Different
                  approaches will be presented for dealing with the issue.



                                                    324









                                                                                      Spranger

                 "World Conference on Preparing for Climate Change" (December 1989 - Cairo,
                 Egypt).

                 European Conference on Landscape- -Ecol ogi cal Impact of Climatic Change
                 (December 1989 - Lunteren, The Netherlands).

                 "Climate Change: Planning Ahead for South Carolina" (January 1990 -
                 Charleston, South Carolina, U.S.A.), sponsored by the South Carolina Sea
                 Grant Consortium to bring together national and state experts to present
                 a scientific overview of climate change and its implications for South
                 Carolina.

                 "Global Warming: A Call for International Coordination of Scientific and
                 Policy Issues Facing All Governments" (April 1990 - Chicago, Illinois,
                 U.S.A.).

                 "International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change"
                 (June 1990 - Fairbanks, Alaska, U.S.A.).

                 "Beijing International Symposium on Global Change" (August 1990 - Beijing,
                 Peoples Republic of China).

                 "Chemistry of the Global Atmosphere" (September 1990 - Chambrousse, France),
                 sponsored by the Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution.
                 Seventh Annual International Conference.

           Hats Media

                 It appears that saving the earth's environment will blanket network and
           cable television channels during 1990 in the United States -- everything from
           news  specials to sit-com episodes will address this issue.

                 Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. (TBS) began airing the half-hour program
                 "Earthbeat" on October 15, 1989, which is an advocacy- oriented program
                 showing how individuals, countries, and corporations can help save the
                 planet. Earthbeat has an activism format, such as using telephone surveys
                 to record viewer opinion on various issues, and inviting viewers to call
                 'in to put their names on "electronic petitions" that will be sent to
                .politicians and corporations. Producer Jeanette Ebaugh states: "TV is the
                 most powerful tool in the world, and it wasn't being used to aid the most
                 serious issue of our time.... 11 ("TV is Giving Star Status to Environment"
                 Wall Street Journal, 10/2/89).

                 TBS is also working on an animated cartoon series to be called "Captain
                 Earth."

                 TIME Magazine in January 1989 named its Man of the Year "The Endangered
                 Earth."




                                                   325








            Lega7 and Instftutiona7 Imp7ications

                 Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) in September 1989 began airing 60-second
                 "Earth Quest" spots. CBS News also plans on showing five 1-hour specials
                 on the environment in April 1990 in conjunction with Earthweek.

                 Barbra Streisand, Kevin Costner, and several other Hollywood celebrities
                 will host a 2-hour special called "A Practical Guide to How You Can Save
                 the Planet," to be aired on Earth Day, April 22, 1990.

                 Olivia Newton-John (Austral ian-born pop singer), United Nations goodwill
                 ambassador for the environment, plans to air a television Christmas special
                 entitled "A Very Green Christmas."

                 Puppeteer Jim Henson (creator of The Muppets) is developing a children's
                 show about nature to be called W.I.L.D."

                 Although there appear to be many such efforts, most are not coordinated or
            integrated with one another. Neither are they tied to a strong research base
            that can provide the citizenry with accurate information on the issues and the
            latest findings about global climate research.      Nor are they really aimed at
            the local citizenry of the world.

                 There is a need for citizens in both developed and developing countries to
            receive accurate, objective information about global climate change and its
            implications.    More important, not only do citizens need to have a better
            understanding of the processes and the implications involved, but they, along
            with the business and industry communities, also need to receive information on
            what type of local actions can be taken to respond to this issue.        Government
            programs and various regulations alone are not enough.

                 As envisioned by Jean Jacques Rousseau, John Locke, John Stuart Mill, and
            other e i ghteenth -century philosophers, democracy requires that all citizens have
            the right to influence political decisions that affect them.    A basic assumption
            of this philosophy is that all citizens are -- or can be -- essentially equal,
            in both their concern for public issues and their competency to make decisions
            about them.    However, to make these decisions, citizens need accurate and
            understandable information. Unfortunately, many of the recent articles on global
            change and ozone depletion are sensational, technical, or too abstract for the
            general public, and they really do not help people make a connection between
            their everyday actions and the impending long-term global changes that will
            probably take place.

                 A long-term proactive educational response is needed that is research-based
            and multi-pronged for both formal and informal settings.      As is the case with
            global climate research, the educational program needs to be interdisciplinary,
            coordinated, and international in scope.      One educational model that already
            exists within the United States and that could be used in this effort is that
            found within the Land Grant and Sea Grant systems. The Land Grant system was
            established around the turn of the century, focusing on increasing agricultural
            productivity. The Sea Grant system was established in the mid-1960s to encourage
            the understanding, wise use, and conservation of our marine resources.          Both

                                                    326










                                                                                       Spranger

             systems use a three-pronged effort involving research, education, and extension
             and advisory services to carry out their mission.

                  With funding from federal, state, and local sources, a unique partnership
             among federal and state governments, major universities, and industry has been
             forged through the years.     For the Sea Grant Program, the majority of its
             operating funds come from the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and
             Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).    Sea Grant's research and advisory service
             programs around the country have worked at some time or other with virtually
             every one of NOAA's agencies.   In general, Sea Grant programs work most closely
             with NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Weather Service
             (NWS), Office of Coastal Zone Management, Environmental Research Laboratories,
             and National Ocean Survey.

                  In the rest of the federal arena, Sea Grant has worked closely with the
             U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, regional fisheries management
             councils, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and U.S.
             Environmental Protection Agency.     Most of these contracts are made on the
             regional or local level and take the form of information exchange or joint
             sponsorship of advisory service projects like conferences or publications. The
             resources of these federal agencies often enhance Sea Grant's ability to solve
             a local or regional problem, and the federal agencies, in turn, often use Sea
             Grant's communications network.

                  An intricate infrastructure of public outreach is in place through the Land
             Grant and Sea Grant system of campus-based specialists and field agents. Within
             this system, there is a dissemination point within every country of the United
             States that could be mobilized for information exchange and technology transfer
             related to the global climate issue.     Additionally, since these programs are
             housed at various universities around the country, there is yet another mechanism
             to tap into a large portion of the research community within the United States.

                  In dealing with the issue of global climate change, these two systems could
             be harnessed in several ways. First, the Sea Grant and Land Grant networks could
             join in partnership with other research programs already in progress to provide
             hard scientific data on the effects of the projected global changes on the marine
             and coastal environments.     Second, we could bring regional, national, and
             international extension initiatives to educate the general public about the
             severity of the problems facing us, and even more, about steps that might be
             taken to deal with the causes on an individual level. Our educational approach
             has always been proactive and positive. Our mandate is to provide citizens with
             relevant facts about a issue.     If there is controversy or uncertainty, our
             educational formula is to provide citizens with the various options and actions
             that might be taken to deal with   the issue. Our extension component provides
             local technical assistance and public information programs to citizens and links
             them with university research. We take a non-advocacy point of view, striving
             to present the best information to citizens so that they can make the best
             decisions about our natural and marine resources.




                                                    327









             Legal and Institutional Implications

                  To be effective, an educational program needs to be long-term and to have
             both formal and informal elements.      Regarding formal education, the latest
             scientific findings concerning global environmental changes must enter the school
             systems of the world. The future resource managers of the world need to become
             environmentally aware and informed.     They need to develop an environmental
             literacy that reconnects them with the world in which they live.     At present,
             the Sea Grant Network is awaiting word from the National Science Foundation on
             just such a project, entitled "Interpreting Current Research on Global
             Environmental Issues for Teachers and Students."     The goal of the three-year
             project is to create among middle-school teachers and their students an enhanced
             awareness and understanding of global environmental issues by providing a
             structure for the transfer of marine and aquatic research results and methods
             to middle-school educators throughout the U.S.A. From this prototype program,
             additional informal education materials could be developed for youth that could
             be disseminated throughout the United States through the Land Grant network via
             its 4-H and Youth Programs. I, along with my counterpart in the Hawaii Sea Grant
             Program, are also working with the National Marine Educator's Association to
             Develop a one-day training session on global climate change at their annual
             meeting, scheduled for August 1990 in Hawaii.

                  Informal educational activities also need to be developed to educate adults
             on the issues and the associated problems, and their responsibilities to take
             action. To achieve the objectives of informed citizen participation and action,
             we must provide individuals with numerous opportunities to acquire the skills
             and information necessary to change their behavior and lifestyle. It must also
             be stated that working with the adult population, one needs to develop a
             different educational strategy. Until recently, adults were often treated the
             same as students in any elementary, secondary, or college classroom, with little
             attention paid to differences in their experiences, needs, and motivations. The
             proliferation of adult education and training experience has brought new ways
             of thinking about how adults learn and change behaviors. In fact, the special
             needs, and characteristics of adult learning were recognized by Malcolm Knowles,
             who created the word "andragogy" to describe "the art and science of helping
             adults learn," which is distinguished from "pedagogy," which deals with teaching
             children.

                  Several formal and informal meetings have already taken place between Land
             Grant and Sea Grant administrators to discuss coordination of global climate
             educational efforts. These discussions will continue as we develop joint long-
             term educational strategies. The logical next step should be to broaden these
             discussions with other local, state, national and international government and
             nongovernment actors who are developing educational programs, in order to avoid
             duplication of effort and to maximize use of the funds available for such
             activities. Many of my counterparts in the Sea Grant network have already made
             contacts with various local and state agencies to jointly develop educational
             programs and materials. National and international coordination and cooperation
             are also needed.

                  There are many examples of informal educational programs that could be
             developed.  Many of these are not new to extension educators.       However, the

                                                    328










                                                                                     Spranger

            educational tools that could be used could be expanded to include the latest in
            print and audiovisual media, including cable television and satellite hookups.
            Here are a few of the generic programs that could be developed:

            Initiate Programs Designed to Prevent Further Global Change

                 Develop educational programs to stress reductions in CO, emissions through
            energy conservation, resurrecting projects that were implemented in the 1970s.
            Improving home insulation, increasing automobile mileage, switching to cleaner
            fuels for home and work, conserving electricity at home and work, and supporting
            development and use of mass transit are a few examples that could be stressed
            in this program.     Educational programs could also be aimed at recycling,
            reduction of excess packaging, and reduction of nonessential use of CFCs.

            Design Programs That Will Directly Mitigate Future Global Change or its Effects

                 Implement tree-planting programs.   We could also develop (1) educational
            projects related to protection from increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation
            increases, and (2) educational materials and liaisons with state agencies to
            factor sea level rise into coastal planning efforts.

            Encourage Needed Research to Answer Uncertainties About Global Warming and Ozone
            Depletion

                 Promote research that would close gaps in our knowledge of in situ effects
            of enhanced UV on marine plankton, coral, and food plants. Study the economic
            impact of UV and global warming so that costs or mitigation and prevention can
            be compared and evaluated.    Initiate sociological studies to predict public
            response to global change.

            Initiate Leadership Develogment in Citizens on Global Climate Change Issues

                 Provide educational programs for citizens so that they understand the public
            policy process, and how they can become effective an part of the process.

            Develop Educational Programs That Encourage an Environmental Ethic

                 Provide educational programs that are interdisciplinary and that provide
            a global ethic that recognizes the interrelationship of our air, water, and land
            resources.

                 In developing an educational program to empower an individual toward action
            or behavioral change, several guidelines and techniques should be remembered to
            ensure success.

                     Make the issue the individual's problem.           It's not just the
                     government's problem. Personalize the problem to solicit action.




                                                  329









             Legal and Institutional Implications

                    ï¿½   Switch from an institutional orientation to an individual orientation.
                        Switch from a "this is what is important to us" mentality to one of
                        "what is important for the individual."

                    ï¿½   Repetition counts. People rarely understand the issue the first time.
                        It often takes many times to change an opinion, behavior, etc. Keep
                        the message in front of the individual.

                    ï¿½   Don't sell the process, sell the outcome.              Only the sponsoring
                        organization is interested in how it happened.         Individuals are only
                        interested in what is in it for them.

                    ï¿½   "Less is more."     Don't complicate your educational program with too
                        much detail. Keep it simple and as nontechnical as possible.

                    ï¿½   Keep the issue in its context.

                    ï¿½   Don't just speak to those already committed to the cause.                   Use
                        nontraditional means to get the information out to the public.

                    ï¿½   The biggest challenge    is keeping the issue in front of the individual,
                        and keeping it on the public agenda.

                    In conclusion, although it   appears that the global environmental crisis is
             extremely serious, it also is      one that is ripe with opportunity for positive
             social changes. As some of you     may know, the Chinese symbol for crisis consists
             of two characters.      One means danger, and the other means opportunity.             The
             scientific community has clearly articulated      the danger, and the alarms have been
             sounded throughout the world.          However,   it appears that there also is a
             responsibility and an obligation for all          of us -- educators, policymakers,
             scientists -- to seize the opportunity that       this global issue presents to unite
             us on an issue that cuts across economic,         social, political, geographic, and
             environmental boundaries. There clearly is a role for both government action
             and local responsibility. International government incentives, regulations, and
             agreements will need to be put into place to deal with this global issue.
             Individual actions and choices that involve an understanding of the global
             environment in which we live are also needed. With the lessening of tensions
             between East and West, we may have an opportunity to turn our attentions, funds,
             and manpower away from weapons of destruction and instead turn them to activities
             that will prevent or lessen the destruction of our planet.


             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Byerly, R. Jr. 1989. The policy dynamics of global change. EarthQuest 3:1,
             Spring.

             Clark, W.C., and R.E. Munn, eds.            1986.    Sustainable Development of the
             Biosphere. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.


                                                        330









                                                                                           Spranger

            Kitsos, T.R., and D.M. Ashe. 1989. Problems in the institutionalization of the
            U.S. global change program - a non-scientist's viewpoint.             Earthquest 3: 1,
            Spring.

            Knowl es, M.    1980.   The Modern Practice of Adult Education.          Chicago, IL:
            Association  Press.

            Managing Planet Earth.       1989.     Scientific American, Special Issue, 261:3
            September.

            Schneider, S.H. 1989. Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century.
            San Francisco, CA: Sierra Club Books.

            Waldrop, M.M. 1989. The U.S. global change program - a political perspective.
            EarthQuest 3:1, Spring.

            Wall Street Journal. November 2, 1989. TV is giving star status to environment.

            World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987. Our Common Future. New
            York: Oxford University Press.































                                                      331








            I
















                ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
                      IMPLICATIONS











                                  FUNDING IMPLICATIONS FOR
                       COASTAL ADAPTATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
                            SOME PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS



                                            JOHN CAMPBELL
                                   Ministry for the Environment
                                         84 Boulcott Street
                                      Wellington, New Zealand





           INTRODUCTION

                The purpose of this document is to explore the implications for funding of
           options for coastal adaptation to climate change. The paper focuses on issues
           of allocation of financial resources for coastal adaptation and considers
           priorities for immediate assistance.


           BACKGROUND

                There is considerable uncertainty about the effects of climate change upon
           coasts.   Impacts may arise from rising sea level, increased storminess, changed
           wave climates, and changes to freshwater and sediment contributions brought about
           by inland climate changes. There may be significant lags in the manifestation
           of the impacts of climate change on the coast.

                Almost all coastal countries will be affected by rising sea level or other
           changes brought about by climate change. Many countries have large populations
           in low-lying areas, and a number have considerable economic investment in their
           coastal zones.     According to demographic projections, the current global
           population will have doubled over current levels before greenhouse gases reach
           twice their pre-industrial levels. A great deal of this population growth will
           be in coastal cities and other lands likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise
           and other effects of climate change.

                Coastal erosion and loss of natural coastlines, often associated with
           unsustainable development projects, are commonplace in many areas. There is an
           urgent need to ensure that current practices for using coastal resources are
           environmentally sound, which could have implications for the funding of coastal
           development projects, irrespective of the issue of climate change.


                                                   335









            Economic and Financial Implications

                 The IPCC Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG) has prepared a paper on
            financial measures as part of its Task B activities. A similar paper has been
            prepared on technological development and transfer measures. These papers serve
            as the basis for the following discussion of funding implications for possible
            coastal adaptation to climate change.'


            INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

                 Climate change is a global problem whose solution will require international
            cooperation.    This necessity has been widely recognized with respect to
            strategies for limiting global warming and the encouragement of their adoption
            by all countries.      As a result, most discussion regarding financial or
            technological assistance to developing countries has focused on these activities.

                 However, the impacts of climate change are not likely to fall evenly, and
            many of the nations affected will have insufficient financial resources to adapt
            effectively. There is, therefore, an equal need for international cooperation
            to ensure that no countries are unduly or excessively burdened by the effects
            of climate change or the costs of adapting to them.

                 All nations contribute to the greenhouse effect, but the industrialized
            nations have contributed the greatest share. Moreover, these nations have many
            of the resources, both financial and technological, necessary to ensure effective
            adaptation.   From this perspective, the industrialized nations have a special
            -responsibility to assist the developing countries that are adversely affected,
            or likely to be adversely affected, by changing climate.

                 In some sectors, adaptation may yield some positive economic outcomes (for
            example, changed climate conditions may enhance agricultural productivity).
            However, while some opportunities for gain may unfold in coastal areas, they are
            likely to be relatively uncommon.


            THE MAGNITUDE OF FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS

                 The Task B report notes that "the special needs of developing countries
            including their vulnerability to problems posed by climate change and their lack
            of financial resources must be recognized and assistance tailored to meet their
            individual needs. Financing requirements might be considerable." The probable
            quantum of financing requirements is, however, unknown.      This applies to the
            likely costs of funding options of limiting, as well as adapting to, the effects
            of climate change.


                 'The Task B activities of the RSWG program focus on measures to implement
            response strategies or policies. The task includes five specific areas: Legal
            Measures and Processes, Technology Development and Transfer Measures, Financial
            Measures, Public Information and Information Measures, and Economic (Market)
            Measures.

                                                   336









                                                                                    Campbell

               The costs of adapting to the impacts of climate change on coastal areas
          may include capital investment not only in protective works but also in the
          maintenance of these works.   If sea level continues to rise, the works may have
          to be replaced or augmented.    Similarly, land use planning methods to reduce
          vulnerability to sea level rise may require constant adjustment to changing
          conditions. Therefore, it is important to recognize that financial requirements
          for adapting to climate change may include not only initial costs but also
          ongoing costs as well. If limitation strategies either are not implemented or
          fail, the costs of adaptation will grow through time.

               One adaptive response is to do nothing.     Recourse to this option may be
          widespread if financial assistance to vulnerable communities is not available.
          However, under such conditions, there may nevertheless be massive costs in terms
          of economic and social disruption, possible destruction of property, and, indeed,
          loss of life. International disaster relief for coastal calamities would become
          increasingly common. This relief may be needed at the same time that demands
          on donors are growing for other climate-related hazards, such as drought.

               There is an urgent need for a detailed assessment of the costs of the
          impacts of climate change and of various adaptive strategies for communities at
          risk. There is also a need for indications of the likely timing of the financial
          requirements for coastal adaptation.


          FINANCIAL RESOURCES FOR COASTAL ADAPTATION

               The Task B report on financial measures makes a clear distinction between
          (1) generating funds for responding to climate change and (2) allocating these
          funds. It is an important distinction: the generation of financial resources
          is a generic issue that is not substantially different for any of the response
          subgroups, be they for limitation or adaptation.     However, linking sources of
          funds to emissions of greenhouse gases may serve as an incentive for limiting
          emissions. Such an approach should nevertheless take into account that while
          adaptation may be necessary because of past emissions, linking responsibility
          for offsetting the costs of adaptation to current "emitters" may especially
          disadvantage countries that do not have a long history of, and have not yet
          benefited from, industrialization.


          THE GENERATION OF FUNDS

               There are a variety of suggestions for the generation of climate change
          funds, ranging from building on current multilateral and bilateral arrangements
          and using voluntary contributions to making specific calls for an international
          fund based on greenhouse gas emissions. The source of funds is a generic issue
          that is most appropriately addressed in the Task B work of the Response
          Strategies Working Group. However, the need to provide information on the likely
          demands on such a fund, its magnitude, and the areas to which it may be applied,
          is the responsibility of the coastal and terrestrial subgroups.        This paper
          focuses on these issues with respect to coastal adaptation.

                                                 337









             Economic and Financia7 Imp7ications

                  Funding to assist the adoption of limitation strategies may ultimately
             serve the common interests of all countries in ensuring that global climate does
             not change. Such common interest may not be as strong in the consideration of
             helping individual countries cope with the consequences of climate change. In
             particular, those countries that contribute little to the problem may have little
             leverage in seeking assistance.

                  If the generation of funds is based on greenhouse gas emissions, the size
             of the fund will decrease as emissions fall. In this event, while the magnitude
             of long-term climate change may be reduced, the shorter- and medium-term impacts
             may not be avoided due to lags.    Those who must raise financial resources to
             assist adaptation may have to seek other sources.


             ALLOCATION OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES

                  There are four major issues relating to the allocation of funds: (1) the
             allocation of financial resources between limitation and adaptive strategies,
             (2) allocation among the various adaptive strategies, (3) determination of who
             should receive such funds, and (4) determination of what institutional
             arrangements are likely to be appropriate.

             Limitation versus Adaptation Strategies

                  Much of the Task B work on financial measures focuses upon the question of
             promoting limitation strategies. It states that "priority should be given to
             those financial measures and policies which can have an early impact in reducing
             emissions of greenhouse gases and which make economic sense in their own right."
             While the purpose of this paper is to outline the funding implications of coastal
             adaptation, it is important to note the link between limitation and adaptation.
             This is portrayed schematically in Figure 1.

                  Under Scenario A in the figure, in which there is no limitation response
             and in which global warming does indeed occur, there will be a growing need for
             financial resources to support various adaptive responses. The demand upon these
             resources may grow if the area at risk increases over time. Early strategies
             to deal with predicted changes may prove inadequate if global warming continues
             unabated beyond the dates used in impact scenarios or for planning purposes.

                  In Scenario B, limitation strategies are only partly successful in reducing
             greenhouse gas emissions and thus serve only to slow the rate of climate change.
             Under this scenario, there will be an early demand for funds to support the
             implementation of limitation strategies.       The financial requirements for
             limitation strategies will fall as initial technological development is
             completed, industrial conversion costs are eliminated, and new industrial
             developments include the strategies as normal processes. The need for adaptation
             will rise initially at the same rate as outlined in Scenario A owing to lags in
             the atmospheric and oceanic response to greenhouse gas emissions up to the time
             when limitation strategies are initiated. At some point, the rate of impacts
             of climate change and demands upon resources for adaptation to it will slow.

                                                    338










                                                                                   CiMpbe I I


                 Scenario A: No Limitation             Scenario B: Partial Limitation








                                                                     TM


                 Scenario C: Stepwise Limitation       Scenario D: Complete Limitat6on






                                                                                     J
                                                                     TM

                 ---- adaptation costs
                      limitation costs

          Figure 1.   Conceptual timepath of costs for limiting and adapting to global
          warming for four scenarios on the timing of efforts to curtail emissions.
          Because adaptation and limitation costs are not necessarily drawn to the same
          scale, the reader should not attach any significance to the points at which the
          curves cross.



          However, because the limitation is incomplete, demands for resources to enable
          increasing implementation of adaptive options will nevertheless continue to grow"
          albeit at a slower rate.

               Under Scenario C, limitation strategies are agreed upon and implemented on
          a step-wise basis. Depending on the completeness of the limitation strategies
          finally chosen, the demands upon resources to enable adaptation will slow,
          notwithstanding the lags in the response.

               In Scenario D, heavy initial support for limitation strategies sees a
          stabilizing of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. While there will
          still be some demands for assistance for adaptation to the impacts of increases
          occurring before concentrations are stabilized, adaptation costs will eventually
          fall. Depending, however, on what point the system stabilizes, there may be an
          ongoing need to maintain options that have been taken to adapt to a new status
          quo.

                                                 339










              Economic and Financial Implications

                    The implications of this model   of financial requirements are clear. The
              greater the rate of implementation of limitation measures, the less serious the
              impacts may be, and the less onerous the burden of coping with or responding to
              them.   It is extremely important that the relative costs of limitation and
              adaptation are obtained so as to indicate the order of magnitude of financial
              requirements for the various options.

                    Moreover, there is no current certainty as to what the effects of climate
              change will be on coastal areas and indeed what the time frame of their
              occurrence will be.    It is therefore important, given this uncertainty, that
              immediate emphasis be on limitation, and funds should be allocated accordingly.

              Funding Needs for Coastal Adaptation

                    If strategies to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases are successful,
              the destructive impacts upon coastlines may be reduced.           However, there is
              considerable concern that even if limitation strategies do succeed, the climate
              change already set in motion will take its toll. Moreover, initial limitation
              efforts are likely to only partly reduce the rate of atmospheric change.

                    Consequently, there are some urgent requirements for coastal adaptation:

                    ï¿½ improving scientific understanding of climate change, sea level rise,
                      and other effects, such as tropical cyclones;

                    ï¿½ monitoring sea level and coastal changes;

                    ï¿½ undertaking vulnerability studies to identify those areas most likely
                      to be prone to the effects of sea level rise;

                    ï¿½ conducting site-specific impact assessments, especially in areas
                      considered to be vulnerable to sea level rise;

                    ï¿½ initiating public education, forward planning, and consultation among
                      communities likely to be affected by the coastal impacts,of climate
                      change;
                    ï¿½ investigating into and developing the full range of coastal adaptations,
                      including nonstructural or nonengineering option; and

                    ï¿½ providing information transfer of existing coastal adaptation strategies
                      and training professionals in implementing them.

                    It is equally important to foster adaptive strategies that will be of
              benefit even if there is no change in sea level.       Such strategies include the
              following:

                    ï¿½ improving the disaster preparedness of vulnerable areas; and

                    ï¿½ fostering sustainable coastal management programs in all areas.


                                                       340










                                                                                     Campbell

                International development agencies involved in funding projects in coastal
           areas should ensure that the projects foster sustainable coastal development.

                There is a need to establish the level of assistance required to meet these
           initial priorities for coastal adaptation. An indication of probable long-term
           funding requirements is also necessary. We expect these long-term requirements
           to be much greater than the initial needs. Because the need for funds is likely
           to substantially escalate, it may be appropriate to begin now the process of
           developing such a fund.

           Criteria for Allocating Funds

                If financial requirements are extremely high, demands for assistance may
           exceed the funds available.     Thus, criteria for allocation of funds may be
           necessary.   Such criteria may include both evaluation of the recipient's
           requirements and assessment of the adaptive option being promoted.

                The scale of financial resources needed may vary considerably, depending
           on the nature of the adaptive option and the area and impact being addressed.
           While considerations of cost-efficiency should apply in deciding priorities for
           allocation, the social, cultural, and environmental implications should not be
           ignored.

                The following is a list of possible criteria that could be incorporated.

           The Recipient

                ï¿½ Financial resources to the recipient;

                ï¿½  Contribution of the recipient to the greenhouse effect;

                ï¿½  Importance of the area at risk in a national context:

                   - proportion of national land area at risk;

                   -  population of area at risk;

                   -  economic importance of area at risk;

                   -  social, cultural, and ecological importance of area at risk; and

                   -  threat to national sovereignty.

           The Proposed Adaptation

                ï¿½ Cost of adaptive option;

                ï¿½ Effectiveness of adaptive option;

                ï¿½ Impacts of adaptive option:

                                                  341









             Economic and Financial Implications

                     - social,

                     - economic,

                     - ecological, and

                     - cultural.

                     Sustainability of adaptive option, taking into account the likelihood
                     of continuing climate change impacts, including sea level rise.

                  Since the greatest need for funds will occur well in the future, there is
             time for these criteria to be more carefully developed. The complexity of the
             problem and the lack of any easy answers point clearly to the urgency of ensuring
             that limitation strategies are adopted promptly.

             Rnstitutional Arrangements

                  The Task B financial measures paper explores two main options for
             institutional arrangements.      First, existing multilateral and bilateral
             institutions and arrangements may be built on, and second, new mechanisms, such
             as an international fund, could be created.    In the case of the international
             fund, the emphasis is on fund generation, with existing institutions maintaining
             the role of allocation.

                  Given the wide range of options for the use of funds to respond to climate
             change, new institutional arrangements may be necessary to coordinate and to
             ensure that equitable, timely, and effective allocation of resources is achieved.
             This will help ensure that limitation strategies are widely accepted, and that
             appropriate adaptation options are widely available.


             TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFER

                  As with funding questions, much of the discussion to date on technology
             development and transfer has focused on measures to reduce emissions of
             greenhouse gases. However, there is also an urgent need for the development of
             innovative and sustainable adaptive options. These include both technical and
             nontechnical measures. Similarly, there is a need to train people to undertake
             and manage adaptation to climate change. Areas where there is such need include
             the following:

                  ï¿½ impact assessment,

                  ï¿½ vulnerability analysis,

                  ï¿½ monitoring of coastal change,

                  ï¿½ disaster preparedness planning,


                                                    342









                                                                                     Campbe7l

                * engineering, and

                * land use planning.

                A variety of means of technology transfer can be considered. These include
          training programs, technology research centers, extension services, technology
          advisory committees, technology research and development, technology conferences,
          and pilot transfer programs.         The existing multilateral and bilateral
          arrangements for technology transfer should be strengthened and expanded. And,
          most important, in developing and transferring technology, the social, cultural,
          and environmental needs of the nations receiving the technology must be accounted
          for.



          CONCLUSION

                Adapting to climate change may require very large financial resources.
          Some countries will need assistance, particularly those for which coastal impacts
          will impose an unacceptable risk and those for which adaptation activities will
          impose an undue burden.

                Demands for financial resources to adapt to the coastal impacts of climate
          change will compete with other response requirements, including limitation
          strategies and adaptation to noncoastal impacts.     There is a need to evaluate
          the probable magnitude of these financial needs and their timing.

                Some time will pass before the coastal impacts of climate change are clearly
          manifested.   There is an urgent need to support limitation strategies in the
          first instance to reduce the rate of change that is likely to occur.
          Nevertheless, there will be some immediate needs for anticipatory adaptation,
          particularly for monitoring, assessing vulnerability, and developing responses.
          Funding of development projects in coastal zones should encourage options that
          are sustainable in the long run.


          DISCLAIMER

                This paper has been   prepared as a draft chapter for the Coastal Zone
          Management Report of the Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG) of the
          Intergovernmental Panel on  Climate Change (IPCC). The purpose of this draft is
          to stimulate discussion at  the Miami meeting of the CZM subgroup of the RSWG to
          be held in November 1989.    As such, it represents preliminary views only.      It
          does not constitute the policy of the New Zealand Government.

                This paper was prepared without detailed information regarding the impacts
          of climate change on coastal areas or information about the range of possible
          adaptive options and their costs. The information produced in these proceedings,
          as well as a second conference in Perth, Australia, is expected to contribute
          to the final version of this paper as a chapter of the IPCC report.


                                                 343











               PREPARING FOR SEA LEVEL RISE AT THE LOCAL LEVEL



                                      JAMES B. EDMONSON, IV
                     South Central Planning and Development Commission
                                       Thibodaux, Louisiana






           ABSTRACT

                 In 1984, Terrebonne Parish in Louisiana became the first local government
           in the world to officially recognize the greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and
           their corresponding economic, social, and cultural implications. With current
           relative sea level rise rates of 1.03 to 1.30 cm/yr, both immediate and long-
           term solutions had to be addressed.    After nearly 10 years of disjointed and
           misdirected state and federal activities, these parishes (or counties) realized
           they would have to undertake the management of their coastal areas themselves.
           Any program they developed would have to be long term and would require the
           support of their citizenry. Thus, they fashioned a multi-pronged comprehensive
           approach.

                 This paper examines the elements of this approach. The research element
           includes over 100 reports on the causes and effects of sea level rise and
           possible local solutions.      Education includes billboards, public service
           announcements, and school curricula. Lobbying includes the creation of a grass-
           roots, non-profit organization. Funding includes a tax on petroleum extraction
           royalties. Finally, design and implementation of construction projects relied
           on improved coordination of local, state, and federal officials.


           INTRODUCTION

                 The landscape of coastal Louisiana has always been changing.            The
           Mississippi River works and reworks its delta plain and inner continental shelf
           through the combined effects of the constructive and destructive forces of the
           delta cycle and fluctuations in sea level.      Through the last phases of the
           Holocene transgression, the mighty Mississippi built six major delta complexes.
           Today, active delta building occurs in only 20% of the delta plain and is
           restricted to the Balize delta of the Modern complex and the Atchafalaya delta
           complex. The remaining 80% of the delta plain consists of four abandoned delta
           complexes (Penland et al., 1988).    It is these abandoned delta complexes that
           provide us an excellent living example, sped-up in geologic time, of the
           impending effects of sea level rise in other, more stable, coastal environments.


                                                 345









             Economic and Financial Implications

             The apparent and relative rise in sea levels will affect the physiography and
             the social structure of the coastal areas. Examined herein are the physiographic
             changes resulting from relative sea level rise within the south-central region
             of Louisiana and its inhabitants' reaction thereto.



             LOUISIANA'S PHYSIOGRAPHY

                   The landscape of south-central Louisiana is dominated by abandoned
             distributaries of the Mississippi delta complex. The southern two-thirds of the
             region is dominated by southward radiating, abandoned distributaries, and their
             associated interdistributary basins.     At the Gulf of Mexico lie two barrier
             shoreline systems:   the Isles Dernieres and the Lafourche.     The northern one-
             third of the region is bisected by the active channel of the Mississippi River
             and its abandoned back swamp habitats. Lake Pontchartrain lies at its northern
             border.

                   Because the region is being influenced by the abandonment and transgressive
             phase of the delta cycle, rather than the progradation phase, it is experiencing
             the accelerated effects of a global sea level rise.      The combined effects of
             subsidence and sea level rise are termed "relative sea level rise." Penland et
             al . (1988) define relative sea level rise as the long-term, absolute vertical
             relationship between land and water surfaces, excluding the short-term effects
             of wind and astronomical tides. Relative sea level rise in south Louisiana is
             controlled by seven major factors: eustasy, geosyncline downwarping, compaction
             of Tertiary and Pleistocene deposits, compaction of Holocene deposits, localized
             consolidation, tectonic activity, and subsurface fluid withdrawal.        Although
             subsidence is the primary cause, the resultant effect of these factors is a
             regionally recorded rise in relative sea level between 1.03 and 1.30 cm/yr.
             Potential sea level rise is estimated to be 0.62-2.80 m over the next century
             (Penland et al., 1988).

                   The combination of relative sea level rise, the abandonment of the delta
             complex, and abusive mineral extraction practices has caused drastic landscape
             changes. Land loss rates have at times exceeded 17 acres a day. One parish,
             Terrebonne, has had losses of 2,053 hectares (ha)/yr. From 1955 to 1978, this
             same parish lost 43,314 ha of its land area, while the region's barrier islands
             have steadily decreased at an average rate of 0.27 kM2/yr (Wicker et al., 1980;
             Penland and Boyd, 1981; Penland et al., 1985). Specific social impacts of this
             massive destruction are already apparent.

                   For example, the potable water supply of the city of Houma, located in
             Terrebonne Parish and nearly 50 miles from the Gulf of Mexico, has already been
             contaminated by saltwater intrusion. In neighboring Lafourche Parish, the only
             north-south highway linking workers to the region's largest Outer Continental
             Shelf support staging area has been periodically washed out. Also at risk are
             Louisiana's vast, unique wetlands, which are a natural factory for the production
             of renewable resources. Louisiana's annual production value for shrimp is $50
             million; oysters, $4 million; menhayden, $80 million; fur and hides, $8 million;
             and recreation, $175 million.        Also at risk is the region's property,

                                                    346










                                                                                         Edmonson

            infrastructure, homes, and businesses, with a total 19V assessed value of
            $1,301,048,653 (Louisiana Tax Commission, 1989).

                   Until the 19th century, settlement of south-central Louisiana tias sporadic.
            The population consisted entirely of Native Americans until the early 1700s.
            White settlers explored the Lafourche area in 1699.          Throughout the 1700s,
            Spaniards and Germans from New Orleans and French Canadians from Nova Scotia
            settled the area.      They sought the solitude and bountiful hzrvests of the
            bayou/marsh/swamp environment.     These early settlers understood, however, the
            seasonal cycles of the region. Thus, they built their homes on stilts, migraIAne,
            seaward and then back inland with fluctuations of the local relative sea level.

                   Today, 310,626 people inhabit the six-parish area of south-centrzl
            Louisiana. They produce the nation's largest shrimp catch and the second largest
            oyster catch, and contribute substantially to the state's ranking of second in
            oil, first in natural gas, and first in North America's fur a@d hide harvest.
            The infrastructure to support these basic industries and their associated
            extraction activities is substantial.       Due to the region's unstable near and
            subsurface conditions, the cost to construct new infrastructure and maintain
            existing service is high:    a new four-lane, poured-concrete highway can cost in
            excess of $3 million per kilometer.       Maintenance and protection of existing
            services, residents, and businesses is further complicated, since 85% of the
            4,682-square-mile region is open water or wetland habitat.        The remaining 15%
            is situated at elevations between 0.5 and 5 meters above mean sea level . Nearly
            half of the region's residents live in areas less than 3 meters above mean sea
            level.   Other factors further exacerbating the effects of relztive sea level
            rise include the leveeing of the Mississippi River and the damming of Bayou
            Lafourche, the uncontrolled and capricious dredging of canals for access to oil
            fields, the water dependency of the region's industrial and commercial base, the
            influx of ranch-style homes placed on a poured slab at natural ground level, and
            hurricanes.

                   One must ask, why do the people continue to stay?         Is not retreat the
            answer?   In coastal areas developed with resorts, retirement homes, and guest
            houses, this very well may be the answer.          But, in coastal Louisiana, the
            majority of the residents' livelihood is directly or indirectly tied to its
            resource extraction and processing industries. Because of the massive size of
            the delta plain and the inner and outer continental shelf area, the resource
            extraction activities must be located within the delta itself in order to
            efficiently extract the resource. As long as consumers demand these resources
            in the market place, an abundant labor supply must likewise reside within the
            delta to avoid lengthy commuter trips and costly highway infrastructure to move
            them in and out of the delta.          Similarly, and until the market dictates
            otherwise, selective protection of the infrastructure and the delta's productive
            estuary must be accommodated. Eventually, the river and the sea may very well
            win this battle. However, barring major catastrophes, the region's inhabitants
            and its industries will continue to retreat gradually, as is already the case.




                                                     347








             Economic and Financial Implications

             PAST EFFORTS TO CONTROL FLOODING

                   Louisiana's first attempt to protect its people and industries began after
             the great Mississippi River flood of 1927, which displaced thousands of residents
             and destroyed many businesses.    Upon surveying the damage, President Coolidge
             called for the construction of massive guide levees along the entire course of
             the Mississippi River.     At the time, we did not realize that this effort
             triggered the massive destruction of the delta. No longer was the river to flow
             freely and nourish its resource-producing habitats. While the levees provided
             protection from riverine flooding, nothing was done to protect residents against
             coastal flooding until much later in the century.

                   Between 1927 and 1970, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers became obsessed
             with controlling the river.     All efforts were focused on navigation, river
             flooding, and backwater flooding caused by the decreasing slope of the river
             channel. In later years, the Corps built several diversion structures along the
             river's course, but these too were designed to protect against flooding, and not
             to enhance habitat.

                   Midway through the century, spurred by the development of the submersible
             drilling platform, the rush for black gold exploded throughout Louisiana's
             wetlands. With all attention focused on the oil boom, little notice was given
             to the initial destruction of the delta, except in close scientific circles and
             by residents of the lowest-lying areas.       Attention was first drawn to the
             wetlands by the destruction caused by the now well-defined network of dredged
             oil and natural gas access canals. Probably not until the mid 1960s and early
             1970s was the massive ongoing destruction of the wetlands and endangerment to
             communities beginning to receive public attention and debate.

                   Ultimately, as a result of the nation's Coastal Zone Management Act, by
             the late 1970s the state government began to examine the problems of the delta.
             In 1978, the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (DNR) completed its draft
             Coastal Zone Management Program, including the option for local program
             participation by the coastal parishes. The state's program was approved in 1980.
             However, the local programs have been developing slowly, because the state
             refused to relinquish control of regulating oil and gas activities.           These
             activities were considered uses of state concern. To date, only a few parishes
             of Louisiana's 19 coastal parishes have agreed to the state's regulatory role
             and have gained approval of their local program. In addition, the Department
             of Natural Resources has denied only a few applications for dredging in the
             wetlands. Even today, permits allowing the dredging of access canals and flow
             lines through the marsh are routinely approved.

                   As a backdrop to the rubber-stamp regulatory system of the Army Corps and
             the DNR, until recently lines of communication between various state and federal
             agencies with interests in the coast were restricted, and coordination was
             practically non-existent. Even within DNR, conflicts occurred between regulation
             and the revenue- produc i ng benefits of exploration and production. Communication
             was so poor that as recently as last year, the Louisiana Department of Economic
             Development was heavily recruiting the location of a seafood processing plant

                                                     348










                                                                                      Edmonson

            whose fish product was currently under strict quotas by the Department of
            Wildlife and Fisheries.

                  In 1982, in response to public outcry, the Louisiana state legislature
            passed the state's first Coastal Environment Protection Trust Fund, which was
            funded with $35 million, and a project priority list was submitted.      None of
            these projects was ever fully implemented because of heated scientific debate
            over the proper way to preserve and protect barrier islands and wetland habitats.
            In 1987, the fund was dissolved and was placed in the state's general fund to
            help balance the ailing budget.

                  Meanwhile, the Corps was catching up on research on the benefits of wetland
            and barrier system habitats. It proposed several wetland-nourishing freshwater
            diversion projects off of the Mississippi River.     None of these projects was
            constructed, however, because of general apathy by area congressmen and the state
            government.  Now that the projects have received congressional authorization,
            the state cannot meet the new requirements of local cost sharing.

                  While the state and federal effort stumbled along for nearly ten years,
            a quiet storm was brewing down in the bayous.


            DESIGNING THE LOCAL PROGRAM

                  In the early days of Coastal Zone Management, local governments and their
            citizen advisory committees conducted the majority of technical research for use
            in the development of both the state and local plans. This early research and
            their knowledge of their local environment gave local governments and their
            citizenry an edge on what was best for their specific situations.      Therefore,
            frustration grew over the slow and disjointed reactions of state and federal
            governments. Because these same coastal parishes received millions of dollars
            in royalties and taxes for oil and gas activities, many decided that if the
            problems of relative sea level rise were to be solved, they would have to go it
            alone, at least initially.

                  Terrebonne, the wealthiest parish, mounted the largest local effort. By
            1980, Terrebonne funded and produced the state's first comprehensive
            environmental assessment and land loss study.      Terrebonne's early quest for
            information helped spark scientific curiosity. Its research grant program helped
            develop the state's excellent coastal and marine research centers. Efforts were
            not always focused on research, however, as skirmishes with state and federal
            agencies were frequent.    In 1983, the parish organized a monumental citizen-
            based attack against the Army Corps of Engineers, protesting the proposed
            extension of the Atchafalaya River's east guide levee. No one could believe the
            Corps would repeat the mistake that was made on the Mississippi River by
            preventing the freshwater and nutrients of the Atchafalaya River from entering
            Terrebonne as a result of the construction of the levee.

                  By 1984, Terrebonne Parish was fully aware of its problems and possessed
            the knowledge to solve most of them. But it knew that the resources to retard

                                                   349









             Economic and Financial Implications

             the destruction of the delta were not available unless the state and federal
             agencies were coordinated and properly funded.    In the fall of 1984, Terrebonne
             officially recognized relative sea level rise as a threat to Louisiana and its
             people and developed a comprehensive approach to problem solving.

                   The key elements of the comprehensive approach are research, education and
             public support, lobbying, funding, and construction.

                   Hundreds of research papers and studies have been completed under the
             cooperation and coordination of local and state governments, the state
             universities, and the private sector. Today, this research effort continues.
             Armed with this research and the collective knowledge they represented, the
             citizens of Terrebonne recognized any effort to combat problems of such magnitude
             as coastal erosion, land subsidence, and sea level rise was going to be long-
             term and expensive. To maintain such an effort, they also realized they needed
             full public cooperation and support. In an effort to generate such cooperation,
             the Parish embarked on a major educational program.

                   In 1983, the Parish government developed two slide shows on the Parish's
             economy and the environment.      These slide shows were distributed to civic
             organizations, schools, and congressional offices.      To supplement the slide
             shows, the Parish developed three brochures for distribution to the general
             public and the public school system. Billboard posters were designed to convey
             the importance of preserving our barrier islands and marshes. Several of the
             posters were periodically displayed on area billboards.        A barrier island
             foundation was organized to encourage and support the coordination of efforts
             to protect and preserve the Parish and its inhabitants.      Finally, the Parish
             government, in cooperation with the Parish school board, developed and
             implemented an eighth-grade curriculum dealing with the subjects of geology, the
             environment, renewable and non-renewable resources, erosion problems, and
             solutions. The intent was that by educating our youth, they would grow and live
             within the Parish with a new sense of values for their environment and its
             productive potential. The Parish also realized the first eighth graders educated
             would be of voting age in ten years and might be instrumental in supporting a
             Parish tax for preservation purposes.

                   Several years later, Lafourche Parish followed suit. Like Terrebonne, it
             also developed brochures on the impending threats of sea level rise, and
             developed its own seventh grade curriculum for implementation in the school
             system. Today, both school boards continue to use the environmental curricula,
             which have proven to'be very beneficial, not only to the students but to all of
             the residents of the region.

                   By 1985, Terrebonne Parish locally funded and constructed the state's first
             barrier island reconstruction project.    The $850,000 project was designed on
             natural coastal processes and consisted of rebuilding 35 acres of island by
             reconstructing the foredunes, elevating the island, and planting natural
             vegetation. To date, it has survived five hurricanes and is the state's most
             successful and cost-effective island project.


                                                    350











                                                                                       Edmonson

                  Next, Terrebonne realized that in order to receive the millions of dollars
            required to correct its problems, a lobbying effort would have to be launched,
            demanding that state government draft and subsequently pass legislation. In the
            fall of 1986, the Coalition To Restore Coastal Louisiana was formed. The intent
            of the Coalition was to fashion a broad-based, grass-roots support mechanism to
            educate both the citizens and the politicians on the actions that would be
            required to preserve our valuable wetlands system. Terrebonne Parish provided
            a portion of the seed money necessary to allow the Coalition to develop, and in
            January 1988 the Coalition was incorporated.     The Coalition immediately began
            working with key legislators and many friends of the coast to spearhead the
            passage of two environmental bills- one to establish an administrative structure
            to restore Louisiana's coastline, and the other to provide funding for the
            restoration projects.

                  Although in 1984 we thought by educating our seventh and eighth graders
            it would take ten years to win citizens' support for legislation and funding,
            it in fact only took five years, and both bills were passed in 1989 by the
            Louisiana legislature. Senate Bill 26 established the administrative structure
            designed to enhance coordination and cooperation among the state's various
            agencies. The bill created a task force of state and federal agency heads and
            Governor's office appointees to oversee wetland restoration efforts.       It also
            created an executive assistant to the Governor who has the authority to
            coordinate efforts among the various agencies. The Office of Coastal Restoration
            and Management within the Department of Natural Resources will serve as the
            primary agency responsible for implementing the state's coastal, vegetative,
            wetlands, conservation, and restoration plan. Although the new law overcomes
            the state's past history of conflicts over agency turf battles and conflicting
            mission statements, the Louisiana Shore and Beach Preservation Association is
            disappointed with the low priority given to measures for stabilizing the beaches
            of the barrier islands. Efforts are currently under way to rectify this problem.

                  With the administrative structure in place, the next task was to secure
            funding.   Senate Bill 25, also passed by the Louisiana legislature in 1989,
            submitted to the voters of Louisiana a constitutional amendment to create the
            Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Fund.     Revenues for the fund would come
            from the state's mineral revenues.

                  On October 7, 1989, the citizens of Louisiana passed the constitutional
            amendment. The Restoration Fund created by the amendment will derive its funds
            from revenues received each fiscal year from the production and exploration of
            minerals, severance taxes, royalty payments, and bonus payments on rentals after
            previously dedicated allocations have been made. For the first year (1989), this
            was to be between $5 million and $40 million. Annually thereafter, the Fund will
            receive $10 million when the mineral revenues reach $600 million after
            allocations, and another $10 million when the revenues reach $650 million. The
            fund is not to exceed $40 million at any given time.

                  The final phase of the multi-pronged comprehensive approach to problem
            solving involved construction activities. With the passage of Senate Bill 25,
            the constitutional amendment, and the creation of the Wetland Conservation and

                                                    351









              Economic and Financial Implications

              Restoration Fund, monies were in place to begin construction phases.           Initially
              these funds will be used as the local cost-sharing match for the U.S. Army Corps
              of Engineers' freshwater diversion projects along the Mississippi River. Battle
              lines have already been drawn, however, on the appropriate usefulness of this
              expenditure. Many realize that the massive costs of these diversion projects
              far outweigh the benefits derived. Although a small portion of the Fund will
              be used for marsh management practices, many feel more emphasis should be placed
              on barrier island stabilization projects.


              CONCLUSION

                     In conclusion, the success of Louisiana's efforts was based on undertaking
              strategic planning efforts aimed at problem solving. Under a strategic planning
              process the following steps are followed.          First compile a situation audit
              (assemble the data base). Next, analyze strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
              and threats. Then develop action strategies to overcome weaknesses and threats
              and to facilitate opportunities and strengths.         Within this process, ultimate
              success relied upon improved communications, mutual support, self help
              coordination, research, education, and coordinated lobbying. If local citizenry
              is reluctant to accept the consequences of sea level rise or fails to understand
              the implications, religion can be a very helpful tool.          Most religions of the
              world have the stewardship of the earth's resources within their foundation.
              Use churches, mosques, synagogues, and temples to express the importance of
              stewardship.

                    Although south-central Louisiana's work has just begun, this effort has
              instilled hope when just a few years ago there was no hope at all in addressing
              the implications of sea level rise.


              BIBLIOGRAPHY

              Louisiana Tax Commission.      1989.   Twenty-third Biennial Report, 1986 - 1987.
              Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana Tax Commission.

              Penland, S., and R. Boyd.      1981.   Shoreline changes on the Louisiana barrier
              coast.    Oceans 81:209-219.

              Penland, et al. 1988. Relative Sea Level Rise and Delta-Plain Development in
              the Terrebonne Parish Region.      Baton Rouge, LA:     Louisiana Geological Survey,
              Coastal Geology Technical Report No. 4.

              Wicker, et al. 1980. Environmental Characterization of Terrebonne Parish, 1955-
              1978. Baton Rouge, LA: Coastal Environments, Inc.






                                                        352










                 TOWARD AN ANALYSIS OF POLICY, TIMING, AND THE
                         VALUE OF INFORMATION IN THE FACE OF
                 UNCERTAIN GREENHOUSE-INDUCED SEA LEVEL RISE



                                            GARY W. YOHE

                   Professor of Economics                    Guest Investigator
                   Department of Econmics                    Marine Policy Center
                   Wesleyan University                       Woods Hole Oceanographic
                   Middeltown, CT 06457                         Institution
                                                             Woods Hole, MA 02543





           ABSTRACT

                The paper has three thrusts.    In the first, a methodology is constructed
           by which researchers can (1) evaluate the relative economic efficiency of various
           responses to some climate change effect based upon the best current information,
           (2) anticipate the most appropriate timing of those responses, given current
           information, and (3) assess the value of future information, which might alter
           both their timing and their relative social value.        The second focus will
           highlight the preliminary results of applying the methodology to anticipating
           the decision of how best, if at all, to protect Long Beach Island, New Jersey.
           The application will rest, in part, on economic vulnerability data collected as
           part of a national sample. A third distinct section records comparable data from
           other sites taken from that sample.    Concluding remarks emphasize the general
           insights to be drawn from the methodology and its application to Long Beach as
           well as the data requirements for more widespread application.      Of particular
           note, here, is the need to move past economic vulnerability to opportunity cost
           in producing the requisite measure of the benefits of protection.


                'Support for both the methodology and its application to sea level rise
           was provided by EPA Cooperative Agreement (CR-814927-01-2); counsel offered in
           that effort by Jim Titus at EPA as well as Jim Broadus and Andrew Solow at
           Woods Hole Oceangraphic Institution is greatly appreciated. So, too, are the
           contributions of colleagues in the Precursor Program for Resource Analysis
           into the Effects of Climate Change sponsored by the Department of Energy:
           Robert Cushman at Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Jae Edmonds, Albert
           Liebetrau, and Michael Scott at Pacific Northwest Laboratory; Pierre Crosson,
           William Easterling, and Norman Rosenberg at Resources for the Future; and
           Thomas Malone at Sigma Xi. Remaining errors are, of course, mine.

                                                  353










             Economic and Financial Implications

                  The ef fects  of greenhouse warming are likely to be widespread, but our
             current understanding of their ultimate social, economic, and political impacts
             is clouded with enormous uncertainty. There is, for example, a wide range of
             estimates for greenhouse- induced sea level rise reported by various researchers
             over the past five years. In light of this disagreement, the U.S. EPA (U.S. EPA,
             1988) puts our best guess for greenhouse- induced sea level rise through the year
             2100 somewhere between 50 and 150 centimeters. Researcher De Q. Robin (1987)
             expands that range, expecting anywhere between 20 and 165 centimeters. Schneider
             and Rosenburg (1989) are more conservative, suggesting a range of 10 to 100
             centimeters, but others still contend that a 2- to 4-meter rise cannot be ruled
             out (see Titus, 1989). Thus, the fundamental question in responding to sea level
             rise and to other dimensions of global climate change is one of determining if
             any response should be undertaken or even anticipated, given that we are so
             unsure of exactly what the future might hold      -- a question of very long-term
             decision making and anticipation under conditions of enormous uncertainty for
             which we currently "have (no) workable guidelines" (White, 1989).

                  Response to climate change could be averting or adaptive (see Lashof and
             Tirpak, 1989). Evaluation of the efficacy of any averting response, even though
             it would have to be imposed globally, should certainly be based upon some measure
             of regional effects scattered around the globe, and should certainly include the
             potential of complementary adaptive response.        Adaptive response would most
             likely be enacted on a local or regional level, so perhaps even more detailed
             measures of region-specific effects would be required. In either case, analysis
             of possible reaction to the threat of climate change must be soundly based on
             an understanding of local and regional consequences (see McCracken et al., 1989).

                  Returning to sea level rise, the relative merits of various adaptive
             responses must be evaluated on the basis of the local economic and social
             ramifications across the full range of possible global sea level scenarios.
             They should, therefore, depend upon a vector of site-specific characteristics:
             the geographical distribution of developed and undeveloped property, the value
             of that property, the potential for moving and/or protecting that property, the
             underlying trends in natural 'subsidence, and so on. They should also depend upon
             variables whose influence extends well beyond the boundaries of the specific site
             -- e.g., scientific parameters that relate concentrations to global warming,
             warming to climate change, and climate change to land-based ice melt and the
             thermal expansion of the oceans.         Expressed most efficiently, the local
             reflection of global sea level rise should be summarized in terms of time-
             dependent and scenario-contingent subjective distributions of potential economic
             cost based upon our best current understanding of the underlying uncertainties
             and correlations.

                  It should be clear, however, that restricting attention to current
             understanding will reveal only part of the story. We will certainly learn more
             about what the future holds as we move forward in time, so a second, derivative
             question arises:    one of determining the value of future information and its
             effect on the relative efficacy of our response options.               It could be


                                                     354












                                                                                           Yohe

            "orthogonal" (providing indirect information about a critical state variable by
            improving our understanding of the likely trajectories of the underlying, driving
            variables) or it could be "Bayesian" (providing increased understanding of a
            critical state variable by directly monitoring its trajectory). In either case,
            it should be expected that the value of such information should be different for
            different anticipated policies, and its assimilation could easily alter relative
            efficiency within the entire set of possible options.

                  Therefore, a thorough analysis of the response anticipation problem requires
            a methodology by which we can accomplish the following:

                  ï¿½  produce a ranking of alternative response options, given current
                     information;

                  ï¿½  suggest the anticipated timing of those options, given current
                     information;

                  ï¿½  suggest how the ranking and timing results based on current information
                     might change in the future as we learn more about what might be
                     happening;

                  ï¿½  evaluate the economic value of new information for each policy;

                  ï¿½  evaluate how new information might alter the ranking and timing of
                     potential responses; and

                  ï¿½  suggest directions for which the results of future scientific and social
                     scientific research might be most valuable.

                  Only by making progress in handling these tasks will we be able to begin
            to answer more fundamental questions of timing and planning.          Can we, for
            example, wait to respond to climate change, or must we act now? If we choose
            to wait, what should we do in the meantime?      Should we plan to deal with the
            extreme possibilities of climate change, or can we focus on responding to our
            best guess at what the future will bring? Will adaptive response be endogenous
            to the system, or should we anticipate a need to make conscious decisions at some
            point in time?


            A FORMAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE RESPONSE PROBLEM

                  Let the future trajectory of some vector of state variables yt = yt(et) be
            distributed at each point in time according to fjet], with et representing a
            vector of random variables that produce long-term stochastic effects on yt. Let
            the cost associated over time with yt be reflected by Ct = Ctfyjej). Any action
            or sequence of actions aJyt(9J] taken in the future in response to yt will
            involve some stream of expenses ot(at[yJej]) and achieve a corresponding stream
            of benefits equal to the cost avoided at any point in time:


                                                    355










             Economic and Financial Implications
                             r,(yJeJ;aJyJeJ]) = C,fy,(e,))-C,(y,(e,)Ia,[y,(e,)]).


                  The expected value of the present value of some (or series of) responses
             spread into the future, computed at time to with a social discount rate p, is
             then simply


                   E(PV[at;ft(et)]) = f f [r(yt;at)-o{a,)]ft(eJd9t e-fltdt.         (1)
                                     to  t


             E(PV[at]) should, in principle, be the appropriate statistic    with which (1) to
             rank potential responses to various possible trajectories       for yt and (2) to
             evaluate the best timing of those responses given the best information currently
             available.



             A RANKING PROCEDURE

                  The expression recorded in Equation 1 is, of course, extremely general --
             almost so general that it is useful only as a symbolic representation of the
             correct objective function. Thinking about the structure of most responses can,
             fortunately, produce a more illuminating formulation. To see how, recall that
             we are considering strategies for future responses armed only with a collection
             of subjective distributions of the state variables yt and an imperfect
             understanding of how the underlying 'random variables et will drive them into the
             future. Many responses will, however, be triggered in practice only when certain
             state variables cross specific critical thresholds. These thresholds will be
             crossed at time uncertain in the future, but many can be identified even now.
             In the case of sea level rise, the threshold for building a new bulkhead or for
             moving a certain structure might be an increase in the mean spring high tide of
             45 cm (or 55 cm or 100 cm, depending upon the site).        It makes sense, as a
             result, to focus on the orthogonal conditional distribution g,,(t) of timing for
             crossing some given threshold y..

                  Returning now to the formal problem, consider a univariate vector of state
             variables, and let the structure of the planning process suggest a partitioning
             of the range of go(t) into intervals( I', I.  I'n) . There exists a corresponding
             partitioning of the range of sequences of the e,, which bring yt across the
             threshold within the specified intervals I',. Let that partitioning be given by
             (,ev---,,9J. The partitioned expected present value respresented in Equation 1
             can then be written


                                                      00
                        EP{PV[,a,,   1na,;f,(eJ])     f E[r(Y,;ia,)-o(ia,)]f,(et)det)e-Ptdt, (2)
                                                  to iet


                                                    356












                                                                                                  Yohe

             where a, represents the response that would be anticipated in partition 8,.           For
             perfectly endogenous responses, there is no difference between Equations 2 and
             1; the partitions simply produce a distinction with no content.               For other
             responses whose timing and magnitude are critically dependent upon speed and
             momentum with which the threshold is reached and passed, however, there is a
             potentially significant distinction.

                  To see why, let some response be generically defined and represented by
             aV   Implicit in the definition of at are issues of both timing and scope, so
             ia, can be thought to represent the best configuration of action a, that can
             currently be anticipated, given that yt is expected to cross the threshold in
             interval Iti.   If we are forced to anticipate enacting one response strategy
             based on current information, then we should rank each according to the
             discounted values of expected net welfare -- i.e., the various a*, should be
             ranked according to


                              Ep(ia*tJf,(eJ) = Ep(PV[ia*t,...,ia*t;f,(et)]);            (2a)

             Response ia*t.such that
                                    Ep(,a*t*lft(et)) @ Ep(ja*tJfJ9J) for all j         (2b)


             is thus the best single option of time and scope that can be anticipated, given
             current information. Note, as well, that Equation 2b can define the best timing
             of a particular response because the various iat considered can represent
             anticipating the initiation of that response at different times.


             THE VALUE OF DISCRIMINATING FUTURE INFORMATION

                  What of future information that allows differentiation across the range of
             timing intervals prior to the need to begin any response? Equation 2 provides
             an easy means of sorting out both its effect on the best anticipated response
             and its resulting economic value.       Suppose, for example, future research held
             out the possibility of uncovering information that would allow us to tell, prior
             to acting, whether the threshold would be crossed in a subset of early intervals
             11 = (1It,...,rIt) or in its complement set of late intervals I' = ( rn,1 It . . . . I n It) .
             There is, of course, an equivalent partitioning of the range of et. Repeating the
             process just described for restricted sets of intervals V and P would then yield
             two best choices: a*t for V and ha*t for 1'.          The expected present value of
             choosing response strategies contingent upon discovering either Vor             I h would
             then be


                       Ep(l';Ihlft(et)) = Ep(PV[1at=,a%; ... ;.at=la't; (M+,)at=ha*t; ;nat=ha'tl ); (3)


                                                       357









               Economic and Financial Implications

               and the value of the information that provided the ability to discriminate would
               be

                                          Ep(I';IhJft(eJ) - Ep(,a*tJft(et)) @ 0                 (4)


                     It is, of course,   possible that a*t* = a*t = ha*   in which case the difference
               recorded in Equation 4    is exactly zer@; but strict"inequality should be expected
               whenever, as should be the rule, a*t* 3o a*t Y ha%.

                     Information that    discriminates across the range of possible futures can
               have value, and it can    alter the timing and character of any response that might
               be anticipated.     Constructing a catalog of the best response strategies for a
               collection of possible distinguishable partitions of sets of intervals
               (it . . . . . .I tn) would provide insight into the sensitivity of anticipated responses',
               including their timing and their scope, to this sort of new information.
               Recording, as well, the value of the information that informs those strategies
               would meanwhile indicate areas of research that would be most fruitful.



               THE VALUE OF BAYESIAN LEARNING

                    The new information considered in the previous section was essentially
               orthogonal -- performing a discriminating function without influencing the
               density function ft(et). Other types of new information are, of course, possible.
               A Bayesian learning process could, for example, be envisioned moving along any
               of the trajectories of yt that lead to           crossing the threshold during some
               corresponding interval Jt. Such a process        would not influence our current best
               view of the range and relative likelihoods       of threshold intervals, but it would
               alter. future subjective distributions of those intervals.              This is clearly
               information of a different character, but        the problem of estimating its value
               can, in the present framework, be thought        of as one of estimating the'value of
               discriminating information that is not perfectly accurate.              The key is that
               future decisions will be based on updated information, and it is those decisions
               based on future information that must be evaluated, given what we know now.
                    To model     these decisions,      let pt(et;t,;e kJ     represent the posterior
               distribution of et that would be derived in period t, > %, given interim
               experience consistent with ete      ekt . Evaluation of any response sequence at would
               then, in period t,, be based upon EI(katl    pt (8t; t' ; ekt) )for any ek, . Best choices kit
               would then be characterized by


                                 EP(k't Ipt(et; tj ; ekt) ) > EP(katlpt(ot;tl;e kt) for al 1 at


               and would define the anticipated response, its timing, and its scope.                   The
               current view of the expected social value of the kit should, therefore, include

                                                          358












                                                                                                  Yohe

             their anticipated expected social value, given experiences consistent with e,e
             ek, but weighted by current expectations of the relative likelihoods of the 8         k t;
             i.e.,
                                   jp(05t) @ 1 fk   ft(et)det Ep(k'tl pt(et;tj;Ik))          (5)
                                                 9 t


             should be used to evaluate the present value of using future Bayesian information
             to inform response decisions.

                  Notice that the composite expected present value defined in Equation 5
             provides direct access to a measure of the economic value of Bayesian
             information. Compared to Section Ivariablel case with no extra information in
             which a*t* was selected as the best single option that could be anticipated with
             curre.nt information.     The value of Bayesian information is Simply Jp(kfid -
             Ep(,a*tI fjej).  It should be non-negative, of course, because a,* was a choice in
             the decision process characterized in Equation 5.        It could be zero, though, if
             the Bayesian process produced too little information, because the posterior
             distributions would then nearly match ft(et) and the kat would all match ia*t*.        It
             could also be zero if the cost and benefit schedules implicit in the definition
             of both BEpf-) and Ej-) were linear.

                  Generat'ing catalogs of the sort suggested at the end of Section III should
             be able to produce the same sort of sensitivity and value insight for anticipated
             Bayesian learning as it did for orthogonal learning. Notice that the structure
             created in here should also be applicable to new orthogonal information that is
             not perfectly discriminating. In the former instance, we glean some insight into
             the value of waiting (and learning while we wait); in the latter, we still gain
             some understanding of where we should be devoting research efforts in the
             meantime.



             APPLICATION TO PROTECTING LONG BEACH ISLAND

                  Long Beach Island, a barrier island lying off the shore of New Jersey, is
             approximately 23 miles long and varies in width from roughly 1,000 feet to
             slightly more than 3,200 feet. Except for dunes on the ocean side, almost all
             of the island lies within 10 feet of sea level.          It is, nonetheless, heavily
             developed, with total property value generally put in the neighborhood of $2
             billion (1989$).      Data have been developed reflecting both the economic
             vulnerability of the island in the absence of any protection (Yohe, 1989) and
             the cost of.employing three different protection strategies (Weggel, 1989).

                  This section applies the analytical tools developed above to these data to
             evaluate the relative efficacy of two of the options investigated by the EPA:
             (1) raising the island as the sea level rises (an endogenous response), and (2)
             building a dike and associated infrastructure when the sea level rise crosses


                                                       359










              Economic and Financial Implications

              a predetermined threshold (a conscious response requiring anticipation and
              preparation).    The rate of. sea level rise will be taken to be the critical,
              random-state variable.    The value of orthogonal and Bayesian information will
              be considered using a distribution of possible sea level rise scenarios drawn
              from current divergent opinion.

              The Data

                   Table 1 records the total economic vulnerability data reported in Yohe
              (1989).   Tax maps were employed to determine the current value of property
              (including land and structure) that would lie below the spring mean high tide
              for various levels of sea level rise. Property that would be in jeopardy because
              of beach erosion was also included, so the statistics registered in Table 1
              reflect a measure of what, as the island now stands, would be "in the way" of
              rising seawater and its derivative effects. They will, for present purposes,
              also be taken as a measure of potential economic costs attributable to sea level
              rise. Of course this procedure will be a source of error, since it ignores the
              possibility of a wide range of complications: further economic development prior
              to inundation, property depreciation in anticipation of inundation, etc. The
              translation of vulnerability data to cost data has not yet been accomplished,
              however, so vulnerability will simply be employed here as an illustrative "first
              cut" at potential cost.

                   Weggel and his colleagues (1989) have produced estimates of the costs
              involved in protecting Long Beach Island.       Raising the island in place given
              observed sea level rise has three sources of cost: fill (sand available at $6
              per cubic yard along a scenario. that sets greenhouse- induced sea level rise
              equal to a 200-cm rise in the year 2100), raising structures (at $5,000 per
              structure to accommodate the higher ground), and replacing roadways (which must
              lie on top of the new higher ground). Since these costs are correlated


                           Table 1. Economic Vulnerability for Long Beach Island


                  Sea Level Rise       Incremental Vulnerability         Total Vulnerability
                       (cm)                 ($ million)                    ($ million)


                      0 - 15                        15                              15
                    15  - 30                        40                              55
                    30  - 45                      225                             270
                    45  - 60                      192                             462
                    60  - 90                      381                             843
                    90  - 120                     705                            1548
                    120 - 180                     385                            1932

              Source: Yohe (1989)


                                                       360













                                                                                           Yohe

           directly with sea  level rise, producing time series of costs for scenarios other
           than the one that  produces 200 cm over 115 years is a simple matter of algebra.
           The only wrinkle   employed in the translation involves the price of fill.         A
           unitary short-run price elasticity of supply was employed, but only for more
           rapid scenarios.    The price of fill would rise if demanded more quickly than
           anticipated along  the 200-cm baseline but would not fall if demanded more slowly
           (i.e., $6 represents a long- run competitive price equal to a minimum sustainable
           average cost).

                The second option considered here proposes (1) building a dike around the
           island when sea level rise from any source reaches 43 cm and (2) operating an
           interior drainage system from that time on.      The dike itself was estimated to
           cost $285 million.    Some small cost derived from raising existing bulkheads
           would be incurred before the dike were brought on line, and expenditures equaling
           $2.5 million would be required each year to maintain and operate the drainage
           system. Any scenario of sea level rise would, in this case, imply a planned date
           for constructing the dike that could be correct, early, or late. If correct,
           then the stream of costs would be well defined by the Weggel estimates.      If the
           planned date turned out to be early, then policy makers would be prepared early,
           and could simply wait to build the dike until it became necessary.           If the
           planned date turned out to be late, however, then inundation would occur      before
           the construction of the dike and the drainage system.         It was assumed that
           completion of the dike it would require at least 5 years from the recognition
           of immediate need, unless completion was originally planned in the interim.

           Sea Level Rise Scenarios

                A distribution of projected sea level rise attributable to greenhouse
           warming through the year 2100 was derived from the range of expert opinion
           reported in the introduction  .2 A log-normal distribution fit the divergence of
           opinion well, exhibiting a mean of 4.55 and a standard error of 0.88. The one
           standard error range around the mean increase of 94 cm was therefore taken to
           be 39 cm on the low side and 227 cm on the high side.        A five-cell discrete
           equivalence of this distribution is provided in Section I of Table 2. For the
           probability values shown there, the second row shows the time coefficient a, for
           each scenario, which drives total sea level rise according to the EPA functional
           representation:
                                    SLi(t) = .4(t-1986) + aj(t-1986 )2                  (6)

           The first term in Equation 6 reflects local subsidence for Long Beach Island of
           0.4 centimeters per year, while the second term reflects greenhouse- induced sea


                2See Nordhaus and Yohe (1983) for a discussion of this technique. It
           assumes implicitly that every expert estimate is sample point derived from the
           true distribution; as should be expected, it has been shown, at least in one
           case, that it tends to underestimate true variability [see Yohe (1987)].

                                                   361










            Economic and Financia7 Imp7ications

            level rise.  Table 2 also indicates the year during which the 43-cm threshold
            for the dike would be passed.

            Raising the Island

                 Raising the island would be a contingency response, defined by Weggel as
            one of raising structures, raising roads, and adding fill beneath both as needed
            to keep dry land approximately 40 cm higher than the mean spring high tide.
            Starting when total sea level rise from 1986 reaches 13 cm, Weggel et al.
            estimate the volume of sand (in cubic yards) required in year t along a 200-cm
            greenhouse-induced scenario to be
                             V200M = 73534 + 5273(t-1986) + .427(t-1985  )2

            The 200-cm scenario is, meanwhile, defined by

                                  SL2110(t) = .4(t-1986) + a,(t-1986 )2,

            where a, = .01424. The volume requirement along any scenario j is therefore
                      Vj(t) = 73534 + 5273(ai/ab) 112(t_ 1986) + .427(aj/*b) (t-1986 )2


            Price times volume then provides the appropriate estimate of the cost of fill
            as a function of time along any scenario. Similar manipulation of the Weggel
            estimates of the cost of raising structures and replacing roads (in $ million)
            produces:
                  csj(t) = 13.65(a'/*b) 112 + .01(aab) (t-1986)
                      CTj(t) = 2.8j+ .133(aj/ab) 1/2(t_ 1986),

            respectively.  The Cjyjej function required in Equation 1 is simply the sum
            of these three cost components for the specified scenarios.

                 Representing the benefit achieved by this action at any time along any
            scenario by the economic value of property preserved by preventing inundation,
            its net present value is easily computed, given C,(--). The Section II of Table
            2 records these values for the five scenarios identified in Section I for a 3%
            social rate of discount. The final entry notes the expected net present value
            computed according to Equation 1.      Raising the island is found to be an
            economically viable option that could be undertaken, depending upon stress
            exerted on the public budget constraint by other claims to public resources.

            Constructing a Dike and Drainage System

                 Protecting Long Beach Island by constructing a dike and its requisite
            drainage system would require considerable prior planning and development, a
            protracted period of construction, a commitment to continuous maintenance after
            construction, and a future stream of enormous expenditure of public revenues.
                                                  362











                                                                                            Yohe

                        Table 2. Expected Present Value of Raising the Island
                                  or Constructing a Dike and Drainage System


                                              Scenarios
                               ---------------------------------------              (7)
              Policy             (2)      (3)      (4)      (5)     (6)          Expected
            Description          A         B        C       D        E         Present Value


           I. Scenario
               Description:

               Probability         0.1      0.2      0.4     0.2      0.1           n/a
               Coefficient      .00144   .00318 .00718 .01595 .03539                n/a
               Threshold         2069     2055     2039     2026    2015            n/a

           II. Raising the
               Island             13.0     32.5    129.7   252.6    355.6           145.8

           III. Anticipating
                a Dike in:

               2015              37.4     67.1     157.0  309.2     463.0          188.1
               2026              38.7     68.9     158.9  311.9     88.8           152.5
               2039              40.8     71.0     160.7  117.6     88.8           115.0
               2055              42.0     72.6     52.7   117.6     88.8            72.2
               2069              43.4     14.6     52.7   117.6     88.8            60.8



           It would  require, in short,   a wide margin   of preparation time.     Any current
           consideration of the economic value of such    an option must, therefore, be based
           upon an anticipation of exactly when a specified threshold of sea level rise will
           be crossed.

                Section I of Table 2 shows the years during which the threshold for Long
           Beach Island, calculated by Weggel to be roughly 43 cm, would be achieved along
           five representative scenarios of sea level rise.         Since the scenarios were
           selected to reflect a current subjective distribution of potential sea level
           trajectories, these years can be viewed as representing the associated
           distribution of dates at which construction of the dike system must be completed
           to adequately protect the island. They define, as a result, five representative
           responses that are differentiated solely on the basis of timing and that span
           the range suggested by the current subjective distribution of sea level rise.

                Columns (2) through (6) in Section III of Table 2 record, for each scenario,
           the discounted net benefit of anticipating the completion of the dike system for
           each of the dates listed in Table 2. The diagonal, therefore, shows the maximum
           discounted benefit for correct timing along each scenario.        Figures below the

                                                   363









            Economic and Financial Implications

            diagonal show the discounted net benefits that should be expected if the critical
            threshold were breached earlier than anticipated. They are all the same because
            the dike would be hurriedly completed in the same time frame along each scenario
            as soon as the threshold passed. Figures above the diagonal similarly reflect
            the discounted net benefit of being ready too early.

                  The expected discounted net benefit for each anticipated date of completion,
            computed from columns 2 through 6 according to Equation 2a, is provided in the
            final column.    These are estimates currently available in the absence of any
            further information. Ranging from $188.11 (million) for anticipating completion
            of the dike system in the year 2015 down to $60.77 (million) for planning
            completion in 2069, they clearly show a marked dominance for planning to take
            early action. Building in anticipation of the extreme case depicted in Scenario
            E even dominates the endogenous island-raising response examined in Subsection
            C (by 22%).    The insurance of preparing for the early completion of the dike
            system, even at the expense of being prepared too early and even given the
            subsequent expense of actually constructing the dike, is less costly in terms
            of expected, discounted expenditure than the continuous process of raising the
            island year in and year out.     This relative ranking persists even when a mean
            preserving 50% contraction in the variance of the lognormal distribution of
            greenhouse- induced sea level rise through the year 2100 is imposed; it is a
            robust result.

            The Value of.Orthogonal Information

                  Table 3 shows the results of contemplating the discovery of some new
            information that will, in the future, allow policy makers to distinguish between
            subsets of the five threshold scenarios listed in Table 2.     Each section of the.
            table presents results for a different partitioning of the five-cell discrete'
            distribution of sea level scenarios and records the expected discounted value
            of anticipating the completion of the dike system at the threshold time
            indicated, given that a scenario within the partition occurs. In other words,
            each entry shows the results of applying Equation 2a to a limited range of.
            possible scenarios.

                  Before reviewing the content of Table 3, it is perhaps prudent to picture
            exactly what sort of information might accomplish the partitioning modeled there.
            Better understanding of the thermal expansion of the ocean, better estimation
            of the correlation between concentrations of various gases and the Earth's
            radiation budget, progress in identifying the "greenhouse fingerprint,"' etc.,
            could all be envisioned as opportunities for new insight that would allow us to
            limit the range of possible sea level futures that we need to consider. That
            is, each has the potential to rule out certain scenarios in the future which,
            given today's information, are still plausible. We have no idea whether such
            information is forthcoming, so there is no reason to adjust the. current
            subjective distribution of sea level        scenarios.    We are, quite simply,
            investigating how much it would be worth to us now, if it were to appear sometime
            prior to the need for any response.

                  The "Best Year" column in Table 3 shows the best contingent choices for
            anticipating the completion of the, dike system for four partitions;       Compared

                                                    364











                                                                                           Yohe

            with the uninformed expected present value of $188.11 (million) associated with
            planning completion by 2015, none appears to be much of an improvement. Computed
            according to Equation 4, the most valuable partition distinguishes between early
            and late scenarios at roughly the 70th percentile, returning an expected
            discounted value of ($190.71 - $188.11) = $2.6 (million). Given the value of
            perfect discrimination $191.82 (million), though, there was not much room for
            improvement to begin with.

                 That is not, however, the entire story. Notice that the expected present
            value of planning the construction of the dike system changes only slightly in
            the 25-year period between 2015 and 2039. Information that distinguishes early
            from late around the 70th percentile could, therefore, ease some of the budgetary
            pressures that might otherwise be felt by the federal government if its share
            of the expense had to be committed within a more limited time frame. Devoting
            some effort to research that might accomplish even this sort of crude division
            in the potential range of sea level outcomes could, therefore, have some indirect
            payoff beyond its $2.6 million contribution to expected net benefit. Finally,
            note that Table 3 suggests a greater payoff to research designed to distinguish
            rapid sea level rise from slow sea level rise than to research designed to
            identify the extremes.

            The Value of Bayesian Information

                 The year 2015 is the first threshold year identified above, suggesting a
            potential waiting period of roughly 25 years during which Bayesian learning
            might better inform potential response decisions. Steve Schneider has suggested
            that convergence in our view of the complex effects of climate change cannot be
            expected over the next two or three decades (Rosenburg and Schneider, 1989).
            In modeling a Bayesian learning process along any of the five sea level scenarios
            identified in Table 2, it therefore seems reasonable to assume that experience
            over the next 30 years can be viewed as supporting observations drawn from a
            lognormal distribution exhibiting the same variance as today's.               Since
            climatologists look at 30-year intervals to assess and define changes in climate,
            we can also expect at most the equivalent of one such observation. Representing
            the current view of the distribution of the natural logarithm of sea level in
            the year 2100 by ln(SL(2100)) - N(m,,,o,.), the result of 30 years of movement
            along scenario k yielding an estimated x, = ln(SL,(2100)) should therefore be a
            new, contingent distribution ln(SL(2100))k     N(Mk I O'k) with Mk = 0.5(m. + Xk) and
            2      2 2
            a k = (a0or .)/ ( 020+020) 0 . 5a2. If the x, are taken to equal the natural log of
            the 2100 values indicated in Table 2 and .7. = 0.88, then each of the five
            scenarios must be assigned different discrete probability values consistent with
            N(mkt'Tk) and contingent upon which scenario defined the 30-year experience from
            1986 through 2015.

                 Table 4 indicates the resulting expected discount values of all six options
            (raising the island and constructing a dike during the five alternative years)
            contingent upon the learning that would occur in the first 30 years along each
            scenario in columns 2 through 6. Each has been computed according to Equation
            5a. The final column records the current view of their expected discounted net
            benefit based on Equation 5b.     The figures recorded in column 7 of Table 4
            reflect, when matched against the comparable figures in Table 2, our best idea

                                                    365









             Economic and Financial Implications

                        Table 3.   Expected Present Values for Constructing a Dike-
                                   Differentiating Information


                                   Anticipated Year for Completing the Dike              Expected
                                   ----------------------------------------       Best    Present
                                   2015      2026      2039     2055      2069    Year      Value


             (A) from (B,C,D,E):                                                          $188.7
                (A)                37.4      38.7      40.8     42.0      43.4    2069
                (B,C,D,E)          204.9     165.1     123.2    75.6      62.7    2015

             (A,B) from (C,D,E):                                                          $189.7
                (A,B)              57.2      58.9      60.9     62.4      24.2    2055
                (C,D,E)           244.2     192.6     138.1     76.4      76.4    2015

             (D,E) from   (A,B,C):                                                        $190.7
                (A,B,C)           114.2     116.0     117.9     56.9      40.5    2039
                (D,E)             360.5     237.5     108.0    108.0      108.0   2015

             (E) from (A,B,C,D):                                                          $189.9
                (A,B,C,D)         157.6     159.5     117.9     70.4      57.7    2026
                (E)               463.0      88.8      88.8     88.8      88.8    2015

             Complete              43.4      72.6     160.7    311.9      463.0   exact   $191.8



                           Table 4. Expected Present Value     of Response Options
                                      After Bayesian Learning


                                                 Scenarios
                   (1)           ----------------------------------------               (7)
                Policy             (2)       (3)      (4)     (5)      (6)          Expected
              Description           A         B        C       D        E         Present Value


             I. Raising the
                Island             64.5      99.1   138.4    195.5    249.4           145.8

             II. Anticipating
                 a Dike in:

                 2015              96.7     135.5   175.7    248.3    317.9           188.5
                 2026              90.8     125.7   150.5    184.8    173.2           152.7
                 2039              79.3      98.5   125.5    115.5    109.6           115.2
                 2055              60.1      69.1     65.4    85.6      90.4            72.4
                 2069              41.2      47.9     57.4    76.9      86.3            60.9



                                                      366








                                                                                           Yohe

           of how much Bayesian learning would be worth for each policy, given our current
           subjective distribution across the trajectories that will be doing the "Bayesian
           teaching." The differences representing that value, defined by Equation 5c, are
           small; but that again is a function of both the effective contingency response
           that was assumed when the dike was anticipated too early or too late and the
           linearity of the resulting net benefit schedule. The real news buried in Table
           4 can be uncovered by noticing that the variation in expected net benefit shown
           across the rows in columns 2 through 6 is much smaller than the corresponding
           variation in net benefit of the uninformed decisions of Table 2. An objective
           function displaying any sort of risk aversion would therefore applaud the results
           of the Bayesian process.


           ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY ELSEWHERE AROUND THE U.S. COASTLINE

                Coastal sampling by Park et al. (1989) has resulted in computer-based
           mapping capability within which the inundation effects of various sea level rise
           scenarios can be uncovered.    Each site in the Park sample is partitioned into
           square grid quadrants measuring 500 meters (sometimes 250 meters) on each side.
           A computer run for any site provides, therefore, quadrant-specific effects in
           5-year intervals for each scenario, defined not only by an assumed contribution
           in sea level rise from greenhouse warming (50 cm, 100 cm, etc., through 300 cm),
           but also by the underlying rate of natural subsidence (recall Equation 6).

                Figure 1 shows, as an illustration, the computer maps for Charleston, South
           Carolina.   Panel A depicts the area in its current configuration, while Panel


           8 0 0 1")      SMIARLE.          80 00-1         SMIARLE.
                                                             . . ..... ...... ........ ...

          0
                                                                                           CA, 0:: 1:.: 4A
          0
                                                                                              (A

                                                                                     to



                                                                                    S  1 -1:: r-.s- 1.1

                                                                                        3





                                                                 WX


                  ... ... ...........
                              . .. ........

                                                                                      Legend


                PANEL A 1985                      PANEL B 2100 (200cm)


           Figure 1. Computer map of Charleston, South Carolina (U.S) showing (A) current
           configuration and (B) configuration with a 200-cm sea level rise.

                                                   367






              Economic and Financia7 Imp7ications

                               Table 5.   Economic Vulnerability" and Wetland Los      Sb
                                          for Selected Sample Sites

               Sitec         0-15    15-30    30-45    45-60     60-90   90-120     120-180     180-240


              TXPORTLA (3mm)
               Econ          0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0        0.0       11.2
               Wetland         0        0        0         0        0        0         0           0

              TXPALACI   (3mm)
               Econ          0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      1.3      0.0        0.0       0.0
               Wetland         10       80       0         0        5        2         3**        0

              LAGRANDC   (8mm)
               Econ          0.0       1.4      1.4       4.1      5.4      5.4        1.4**     0.0
               Wetland         0        5        10        10       5        10        60**      0.0

              LABARATA   (9mm)
               Econ          6.1       6.1      9.2       6.1      6.1      6.1      18.4        3.1**
               Wetland         0        30       5         5        5        5         40         10**

              MSPASSCH   (Imm)
               Econ          .1.8      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0        0.0      0.0
               Wetland         40       60**     0         0        0        0         0         0

              FLSTJOSE   (1mm)
               Econ          0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0        1.6      4.8
               Wetland       none

              FLPORTRI   (1mm)
               Econ          26.3      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0      26.1       131      183
               Wetland       add       add       10        60       5        25**      0         0

              FLMIAMI (1mm)
               Econ          148       295      592       811    1260       1770     7530      4130
               Wetland       none

              FLSTAUGU   (1mm)
               Econ          2.5       1.1      2.5      15.3    16.5       5.0      24.2       24.5
               Wetland         0        5        5         10       80**     0         0         0

              STCHARLE   (2mm)
               Econ          26.1     34.8      8.7       8.7    34.9       78.6     39.1      65.6
               Wetland         10       5        5         75       5**      0         0         0

              NCLONGBA   (Imm)
               Econ          0.0       1.1      3.4       7.9      0.0      6.7        2.3      1.1
               Wetland         0        10       20        65       5**      0         0         0
              Notes: 6  In millions of dollars (1089).          In percent of current wetlands.
                       cLocal subsidence recorded in (parentheses).             Totally inundated.


                                                          368










                                                                                          Yohe

           B shows the effect of 200-cm greenhouse- induced sea level rise superimposed
           through the year 2100 upon a 0.2-cm per year natural subsidence.           Economic
           vulnerability, the current value of property which might be in the way of the
           rising sea, is then accessible for each site from a procedure that computes the
           average property value for each affected quadrant from tax maps and/or housing
           and business census data. Table 5 registers the resulting data for a subsample
           of the Park sites; Table 6 shows our nationwide estimates.


                         Table 6. National Cumulative Economic Vulnerability
                                    to Sea Level Rise ($ billions)


               Sea level rise       25th percentile    Best estimate      75th percentile

                   50 cm                    78.4           133.2                  188.1

                  100 cm                   165.8          308.7                   451.6

                  200 cm                   411.3          909.4                  1407.6




           CONCLUDING REMARKS

                The problem of analyzing the economic value of potential responses to the
           effects of global climate change is a problem that lies at the heart of decision
           making under enormous long-term uncertainty.        The methodology outlined in
           Sections I through IV is advanced as a first step in confronting that problem.
           It appeals to well-established economc tools to provide a means of organizing
           onels thoughts in face of uncertainty, taking into account not only what we know
           now but also what we might know in the future, and how we might, in the normal
           course of events, react to that growing base of knowledge.

                Only two new wrinkles in existing theory were employed. It was, first of
           all, noted that the usual representation of uncertainty with subjective
           distributions of future state variables at some point in time can, in many cases,
           be replaced profitably in our thinking by the corresponding orthogonal
           distributions of time when certain specific threshold values in those state
           variables might be crossed.     In that context, one can investigate the best
           anticipated timing of some potential response, given the current subjective view
           of the future, by taking advantage of the second wrinkle: defining a set of
           derivative responses differentiated only by the time in which they would be
           enacted. The best anticipated response then defines the best anticipated timing.

                The application of the methodology to Long Beach Island also provided some
           general insight.    To the extent that communities can correct any error in
           anticipating exactly when a given response might be required, new information
           that can differentiate future states of nature prior to the need to respond will
           be less or more valuable.     That point notwithstanding, however, it is quite


                                                   369









             Economic and Financial Implications

             possible that the best anticipated response might be to guard against the
             potential effects of scenarios at the extremes of current subjective
             distributions.    If the cost of being prepared too early is small, then planning
             as if the future will unfold showing the maximum rate of sea level rise is the
             best choice.

                  Finally, the notion that communities will learn about the future as it is
             revealed should also be considered. This sort of Bayesian learning may provide
             more or less extra in net expected benefit, depending upon the communities'
             abilities to correct for errors in anticipation.        Nevertheless', it can always
             be expected to reduce the variance of possible futures at the time of actually
             initiating a response. Any degree of risk aversion in the evaluation function
             will, as a result, welcome the opportunity for such learning.


             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Armstrong, J. , and R. Denuyl . 1977. An i nvestment dec i s i on model for shoreline
             protection and management. Coastal Zone Management Journal 3:

             Barth, M., and J. Titus, eds.       1984.   Greenhouse Effect-and Sea Level Rise.
             New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.

             Cyert, R., M. DeGroot, and C. Holt. 1978. Sequential investment decisions with
             Bayesian learning. Management Science 24:
             Dean, P., et al.   1987. Responding to changes in sea level. National Research
             Council. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

             De Q. Robin, G.    1987.   Projecting the rise in sea level caused by warming of
             the atmosphere.    In:   The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems,
             SCOPE 29. Bolin, et al., eds.

             Hekstra, G.   1989. Sea level rise: regional consequences and responses. In:
             Greenhouse   Warming: Abatement and Adaptation.         N. Rosenberg et al., eds.
             Washington,  DC: Resources for the Future.

             Hekstra, A.    1986.   Future global warming and sea     level rise.     In:    Iceland
             Coastal and  River Symposium. G. Sigbjarnarson, ed.

             Lashof, D.,  and D. Tirpak. 1989. Policy Options for     Stabilizing Global Climate.
             Report to Congress. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

             Leatherman, S.    1989.   Coastal responses to sea level rise.        -In:    Potential
             Effects of   Global Change on the United States.      J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds.
             Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

             Lind, R., K. Arrow, G. Corey, P. Dasgupta, A. Sen, T. Stauffer,.J. Stiglitz, J.
             Stockfish, and R. Wilson. 1982. Discounting for time and risk in energy policy.
             Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.


                                                      370











                                                                                                 Yohe

           Meier, M., et al.      1985.   Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level.           Washington,
           DC: National Academy Press.

           Marshak, J., and R. Radnor. 1972. Economic Theory of Teams. New Haven, CT:
           Yale Press.

           McCracken, M. , et al . 1989. Energy and global change. National Energy Strategy
           -- Report to the Secretary of Energy.

           Miller, J., and F. Lad.      1984.   Flexibility, learning, and irreversibility in
           environmental decisions:        a Bayesian approach.        Journal of Environmental
           Economics and Management 11.

           Nordhaus, W., and G. Yohe.         1983.    Probabilistic forecasts of fossil fuel
           consumption. In: Changing Climate.          Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

           Park, R., et al. 1989. The effect of        sea level rise on U.S. coastal wetlands.
           In: Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. J. Smith
           and D. Tirpak, eds. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

           Revelle, R. 1983. Probable future changes in sea level resulting from increased
           atmospheric carbon dioxide. In: Changing Climate. Washington, DC: National
           Academy Press.

           Schneider, S. and N. Rosenburg.         1989.    The greenhouse effect: its causes,
           possible impacts, and associated uncertainties.             In:    Greenhouse Warming:
           Abatement and Adaptation. N. Rosenburg, et al., eds. Washington, DC: Resources
           for the Future.

           Titus, J.    1989.    Sea level rise.     In:   Potential   Effects of Global Climate
           Change on the United States.        J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds.        Washington, DC:
           U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

           Weggel , J. , et al .   1989.    The cost of defending developed shorelines along
           sheltered shores. In: Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United
           States. J. Smith and D. Tirpak, eds.           Washington, DC:      U.S. Environmental
           Protection Agency.

           White, R. 1989. Greenhouse policy and climate uncertainty. Bulletin American
           Meteorological Society 70.

           Yohe, G.   1989. The cost of not holding back the sea - economic vulnerability.
           In: Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. J. Smith
           and D. Tirpak, eds. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

           Yohe, G.    1987.   Uncertainty and disagreement across the International Energy
           Workshop poll - do the ranges match? OPEC Review 12.

           Yohe, G. 1986. Evaluating the efficiency of long-term forecasts with limited
           information. Resources and Energy 8.

                                                      371













                          RISK-COST ASPECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE
                       AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EVALUATION OF
                                COASTAL PROTECTION PROJECTS


                DAVID A. MOSER, EUGENE Z. STAKHIV, and LIMBERIOS VALLIANOS
                                    U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
                                   Institute for Water Resources
                                       Fort Belvoir, Virginia






            ABSTRACT

                 Planning for federal projects     designed to protect the U.S. coast can
            incorporate forecasts of sea level     rise and storm frequency changes due to
            climate   change   by  applying   risk and    uncertainty   analysis    techniques.
            Incorporating future sea level rise    and climate change into current projects
            implies building projects that are     too large for existing conditions.        In
            addition, changed future conditions that increase recurring project maintenance
            costs tend to favor structural-type projects.       In terms of planning current
            projects, the adverse impacts of sea level rise and climate change occur too
            slowly and too far into the future to have much influence on the.choice of the
            type and scale of coastal protection project. This is especially true given the
            higher interest rate used in present-value calculations. Therefore, the U.S.
            is likely to rely on nonstructural, land use management solutions administered
            by state and local agencies.


            INTRODUCTION

                 The impending threat of climate change and sea level rise has brought calls
            from various sectors for government institutions to prepare for this creeping
            natural hazard. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is one such federal agency that
            is responsible for various aspects of a diverse program responsible for water
            resources and shoreline protection.    The Corps recognizes that its activities
            are likely to be affected by the hydrologic, meteorologic, and oceanographic
            consequences of global warming and expected climate changes. One response has
            been the explicit introduction of risk analysis to aid in the evaluation and
            selection of alternative plans and project components to deal with natural hazard
            extremes and the mitigation of their social and economic consequences.         This
            formal risk analysis is merely an addition to existing multiobjective evaluation


                                                   373









             Economic and Financial Implications


             procedures that guide federal water resources development. These procedures are
             based on a body of social, economic, environmental, planning, and decision theory
             literature that has been developed over the last 50 years.

                  Many uncertainties and unknowns are associated with the physical effects
             of greenhouse warming and anticipated sea level rise.           These compound the
             existing difficulties of planning under conditions of uncertainty regarding
             future growth, economic development, and environmental effects.        The key risk
             and uncertainty issues facing present-day coastal protection projects are the
             following:

                  1.  Establishing the proper baseline for evaluating the physical and
                      socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise,

                  2.  the rate and magnitude of sea level rise,

                  3.  the uncertainty of storm frequency and wave regimes under climate
                      change, and

                  4.  the dominant effect of the discount rate.

                  Sea level rise alone, even with the present weather regime, will logically
             cause the landward retreat of the shoreline following the Bruun rule (Schwartz,
             1967).   Weather changes associated with global warming could imply increased
             variability and intensity of individual coastal storm events, further
             exacerbating the present conditions of beach erosion and property damage in
             coastal areas. However, the direction of the intensity and frequency of storm
             events, is still largely speculative.        An additional factor in the proper
             selection of strategies for societal adaptation to sea level rise and storm
             frequency is their rates of chanue.        The immediacy of the consequences to
             shorelines and coastal development will influence the choice of action.

                  A fundamental question that climate change and sea level rise pose for
             society is how to effectively cope with the changes that appear irreversible.
             Many federal, state, and local institutions are currently debating the possible
             strategies and specific measures for anticipating the most severe consequences
             and adapting to the inevitable changes. The Corps of Engineers, as one of these
             institutions, can effectively deal only with protective measures. This paper
             deals with how the Corps' economic evaluation principles and decision rules
             influence the choice of a particular shore protection measure in a risk analysis
             framework.   There are many other effective alternative management measures,
             residing within the responsibilities of the states and local communities, that
             should be strongly considered in adapting to sea level rise. The range of public
             measures to mitigate the potential hazards to life and property from sea level
             rise and climate change will be the same as those available today under "normal"
             conditions.   The probable difference will be that the emphasis on alternative
             management strategies will change to reflect the reality that the baseline
             condition is changing. Thus, it is likely that shore protection strategies would
             shift from protective measures such as groins, bulkheads, seawalls, and beach

                                                     374










                                                                                Moser, et al.


           nourishment to land use modification measures, which limit investments in and
           subsidies to hazard-prone areas through regulation and disinvestment strategies,
           such as transferable development rights and the use of financial incentives and
           tax deductions.



           AN OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION PRINCIPLES

                The federal government has a   long history of planning coastal protection
           projects. By providing protection against the hazard, efficiency gains can be
           achieved that result in an increase  in the national output of goods and services.
           There are also additional regional  and local economic gains that result from the
           transfer of economic activity from   some other location. The identification and
           measurement of the national efficiency gains follows benefit-cost analysis
           procedures developed, to a significant extent, to evaluate the national economic
           implications of federal investments in what are inherently local water resource
           projects.   These procedures are codified in the "Economic and Environmental
           Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation
           Studies (Principles and Guidelines)" (Water Resources Council, 1983).

                Adaptive responses to sea level rise are generally the same as those
           considered.for existing coastal erosion problems. These can be classified into
           four approaches or options:

                1.  Hard  engineering   options   --  bulkheads,   groin   fields,    seawalls,
                    revetments, and the elevation of the shoreline and structures;

                2.  soft engineering options -- beach nourishment and dune stabilization;

                3.  management options -- set-back requirements, restrictions on land
                    development and land use; and

                4.  passive options -- no systematic response, allowing the coast to erode,
                    with private attempts to protect individual property.

                Coastal protection projects, like all investments, involve spending money
           today to gain predicted benefits in the future.       In addition, many types of
           projects, particularly the beach nourishment, maintenance type, require the
           commitment to future spending to maintain the project.         This future aspect
           requires that the current and future dollar costs and benefits must be compared
           in a common unit of measurement. This is typically in terms of their present
           values or the average annual equivalent of their present values. Therefore, the
           discount rate used to determine the present values influences the economic
           feasibility of alternative projects. It is well known that large discount rates
           reduce the influence of future benefits and costs on present values:            High
           interest rates generally favor the selection of projects with low first costs
           but relatively high planned future maintenance expenditures over those with high
           first costs but low future maintenance expenditures.


                                                   375









            Economic and Financial Implications


                 The standard for identifying and measuring the economic benefits from
            investment in a water resources project is each individual's willingness to pay
            for that project. For coastal protection projects, this value can be generated
            by a reduction in the cost to a current land use activity or the increase in net
            income possible at a given site. A project generates these values by reducing
            the risk of storm damage to coastal development.     Conceptually, the risk from
            storms can be viewed as incurring a cost to development -- i.e., capital
            investment -- at hazardous locations.      Thus, the cost per unit of capital
            invested at risky locations is higher than at risk-free locations.        Economic
            theory predicts that the risk of storm damage in a given location results in less
            intensive development and lower land value in that location as compared with
            development and values if the same location had a lower risk as compared with
            otherwise equivalent, risk-free locations. The risk component of the marginal
            cost of capital is composed of the expected value of the per unit storm damages
            plus a premium for risk.      This risk premium results from the attitudes or
            preferences of the individual decisionmaker toward risk. If the individual is
            averse to risk, the risk premium is positive, indicating that capital must earn
            a return not only to cover expected storm damages but also to compensate the
            investor for taking the risk.


            NATURAL SOURCES OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

                 Storms damage coastal property in several ways. In addition to direct wind-
            related damage, which is ignored here, a storm typically produces a surge that
            raises the water surface elevation well above the mean high tide level.       This
            wind-driven surge may be sufficient, even in the absence of waves, to flood low-
            lying areas.    In addition to the surge, storms also produce larger waves.
            Property subject to direct wave attack can suffer extensive damage to the
            structure and contents as well as erosion of the foundation, threatening the
            stability of the entire structure.      Storms also produce at least temporary
            physical changes at the land-water boundary by eroding the natural beach and dune
            that serve to buffer and protect the shore and property from the effects of
            storms. Increased wave energy during storms erodes the beach and carries the
            sand offshore. At the same time, the storm surge pushes the zone of direct wave
            attack higher up the beach and can subject the dune and structures to direct wave
            action.

                 Several components of coastal project evaluation are stochastic, so that the
            evaluation can be computationally complicated. For instance, the damages from
            storms are dependent on characteristics described in probabilistic terms, such
            as intensity, duration, wind direction, and diurnal tide level.       Since these
            characteristics, in turn, influence the level of storm surge and significant wave
            height, these two direct factors in storm damage are also stochastic. Sea level
            rise can be considered as a shift in the base elevation for measuring storm surge
            and wave height.




                                                   376










                                                                                Moser, et al.


           THE EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

                The first step in an evaluation is to assess the baseline conditions, that
           is, what will happen without the project being evaluated. In the deterministic
           approach,   a single forecast defines physical,         developmental,    cultural,
           environmental, and other changes. These changes are considered to occur with
           certainty in the absence of any systematic adaptive measure. This approach does
           allow, however, for individual property owners to respond to storm and erosion
           threats by constructing protective measures or by abandoning property.          The
           baseline requires assumptions to determine when these responses occur. In the
           risk analysis approach, this simplistic determination of the "without" condition
           is modified to      incorporate uncertainties about storm frequencies,          the
           distribution of wave heights, and the geomorphologic changes and property losses
           produced by storms and waves.

                The variable sea state is measured as the sum of the level of storm surge
           plus the significant wave height. The level of storm surge is a function of the
           storm characteristics, so that the annual probability of storm surge exceeding
           some level depends on the annual probability of storms that can generate a surge
           of that level or greater. The distribution of wave heights from a storm is not
           independent of the level of storm surge (Bakker and Vrijling, 1981). One can
           consider the storm surge to shift the probability density function for
           significant wave heights.

                The final component for incorporating classical risk-analysis techniques
           within the benefit evaluation framework for storm protection, as specified by
           the Principle and Guidelines, is to compare the future economic development and
           land values if the project is implemented with the baseline values. Without a
           public coastal protection project, property      owners are presumed to repair
           structural losses with the damages from storms    presumed to be capitalized into
           the value of the land.    In addition, property  owners are assumed to construct
           individual protective structures when the costs are less than the value of the
           preserved property and the avoided expected damages to improvements. With the
           project, landowners realize increases in economic rental values of land at
           protected locations. This rental value increase is typically considered to be
           equivalent to the annualized expected present value of avoided property losses
           with the project or the avoided costs of individual protective structures. The
           time stream of these benefits will reflect the stochastic nature of storm events.
           An important additional consideration stems from the chronological order of
           storms and damages. A large storm may result in damages that are so extensive
           that the buildings are not or cannot be rebuilt. Therefore, succeeding storms
           will inflict smaller losses if preceded by large storms.

                The general description of the evaluation framework does not explicitly
           incorporate long-term shoreline erosion.       In many situations, the observed
           shoreline retreat is simply the by-product of the storm history at a particular
           location, perhaps in combination with relative sea level rise. In other special
           cases, coastal structures such as groins and jetties may induce sand starvation
           in down-drift areas. Typically, these are incorporated in project evaluation,

                                                   377









             Economic and Financial Implications


             based on the average rate of historical shoreline retreat. For purposes here,
             any shoreline retreat is treated as storm-induced.

                  The increase in rental value of land is location-based, resulting from a
             reduction in the external costs imposed by storms.      The increase represents a
             national economic development benefit, as required under the Principles and
             Guidelines.    It is this type of economic benefit that is compared to project
             costs to determine the economic feasibility of any proposed federal project.'

                  Benefits produced by a project depend on the project's type and scale. Even
             where two alternative projects have the same scale, as defined by the design
             level of storm protection (e.g., 100-year storm or probable maximum hurricane),
             the impact on benefits will differ, depending on the magnitude of residual losses
             from storms that exceed the level of protection. For example, for a given level
             of protection, a sea-wall is likely to result in different residual storm losses
             as compared with beach and dune restoration, stabilization, and nourishment.

                  In addition to national economic development benefits, a second major
             consideration in applying benefit-cost analysis in choosing a project and its
             level of protection is the stream of future project costs. The appropriate costs
             used in the analysis should provide a measure of all the opportunity costs
             incurred to produce the project outputs. These national economic development
             costs may differ from the expenses of constructing and maintaining the project.
             For coastal protection projects, expenses would include the first costs of
             project construction, any periodic maintenance costs, and future rehabilitation
             costs.   In addition, the project may incur environmental or other non-market
             costs whose monetary value can be imputed. The nature of the stream of future
             costs depends on the type of project. For instance, a structural-type project
             typically has high first costs and high future rehabilitation costs but low
             future periodic maintenance costs. On the other hand, a maintenance-type project
             is composed of relatively low first costs but with larger recurring future
             maintenance costs.

                  Each of the time streams of costs must be converted into present-value terms
             using the prevailing federal discount rate. Note that the stream of future costs
             for both types of projects, but especially the maintenance, must be defined in
             probabilistic terms.      The realized amount and timing of maintenance and
             rehabilitation expenditures depends on the number and severity of storms
             experienced at the project site in the future. Thus, the expected future cost
             stream is based on the estimated probability density function for sea states.

                  Once the alternative formulated plans are evaluated in economic terms, the
             expected net benefits can be calculated.         Following the project selection


                  'In some cases, it may be determined that there is "no federal interest"
             and no federal project. This may be the case where a "few" large identifiable
             beneficiaries could organize to pay for their own protection financed out of
             increased land values.

                                                     378











             criteria in the Principles and Guidelines, the recommended type and scale of plan
             should be the one that "reasonably maximizes" net national economic development
             benefits.   This is a key conceptual point in risk analysis:          the net benefits
             decision rule for selecting the economically optimal project simultaneously
             selects the degree of protection and level of residual risk bearing. Thus, by
             varying the scale each type of project, we can derive a benefit function for each
             type of project. Deviations from the national economic development plan can be
             recommended to incorporate risk and uncertainty considerations in addition to
             the explicit risk analysis used in the econoiric evaluation.           Thc-se coOd be
             considerations for human health and safety or non-monetized environmental
             concerns.



             CLIMATE CHANGE AMD SEA LEVEL RISE

                  Thus far, the evaluation and selection of federal coastal protection
             investments has assumed that climate and mean sea level will not change; the
             underlying physical parameters and relationships yielding the historically
             observed distribution of sea states have been assumed to be constant.               Rost
             forecasts for sea level rise suggest that it is not an immediate problem for
             coastal development. In addition, there is a wide variation in the estimates
             of the rate of sea level rise.

                  For instance, a recent National Research Council report notes that relative
             sea level rise is composed of two components: (1) the localized land subsidence
             or upl i ft, and (2) a worl d -wi de ri se i n mean sea I evel . (NCR, 1987). The report
             adopted equations resulting in the following relationship to forecast total
             relative sea level rise:

                          RSLR(t) = (0.0012 + M/1000).t + b-t2

             where:
                     RSLR=       relative sea level rise by year t above the 1986 level
                      M          the local subsidence or uplift rate in mm/year, and
                      b          the eustatic component of relative sea level rise by the year
                                 2100 in m/year.

             The value of M is  fairly well established for many coastal locations: the value
             of b, however, is subject to wide forecast differences.             Table 2 shows the
             estimates of the total relative sea level rise at Hampton, Virginia, and Grand
             Isle, Louisiana, for the three scenarios adopted in the NRC report.                   The
             variability in the predicted sea level rise offers a case for the application
             of sensitivity analysis in the evaluation of project scale. In addition, the
             disagreement over the eustatic component of relative sea level rise argues for
             projects whose scale can be staged to account for sea level rise as it occurs.

                  Sea level rise can be included in the evaluation of planning alternatives
             as a shift in the probability density function of storm surge in tihich the

                                                       379








             Economic and Financia7 Imp7ications


             variance remains constant but the mean increases by the amount of sea level rise.
             This results in an increase in the site cost of capital "with" and "without" each
             alternative.    Note that a rise in sea level will most likely have different
             impacts on the site cost of capital for different types of planning alternatives.
             The incorporation of higher future sea levels in project evaluation will favor
             the recommendation of larger, structural-type projects over maintenance projects.
             Two additional considerations temper this conclusion, however. First, building
             higher levels of protection than are economically efficient given the current
             mean sea level implies that current net benefits are sacrificed.           The higher
             levels of protection are economically efficient only at higher mean sea levels
             that may or may not occur in the future.         Second, since the increase in net
             benefits for a larger scale project occur in the future, the discounting process
             necessary to determine the present values of benefits and costs will reduce the
             influence of these future benefits on the determination of the appropriate
             project scale.

                  One way of  presenting the economic tradeoffs between design project scales
             that have different time streams of future net benefits is to determine the
             break-even discount rate for the projects. The break-even discount rate is the
             interest rate that equates the present values of two streams of future net
             benefits. The present value of net benefits as a function of the discount rate
             is shown in.Figure I for two alternative projects, A and B. Project A provides
             the economically effictent level of protection today ignoring sea level rise,
             while B provides a higher level of protection in anticipation of climate change
             and sea level rise. Notice that the present value of future net benefits for
             project B exceeds the   present value of future-net benefits for project A if the
             discount rate is less   than approximately 3.2 %. This compares to the 1989 U.S.
             federal discount rate   of 8 7/8*/* used for project eval uati on. In general , because
             sea level rise and its effects occur relatively far in the future, incorporating
             even a high forecast    of future sea levels in the evaluation of project scale
             will have little impact on the economically efficient project design when high
             discount rates are employed. Nevertheless, the uncertain prospect of the amount
             of sea level rise may support projects that are more flexible and that can easily
             incorporate,staging of'project increments as sea levels change.

                 Similar to the above analysis, project evaluation could incorporate the
             effects of forecasted Climate change, expressed as a change in the frequency of
             storm events, through the calculation of: expected values and sensitivity
             analysis.   One hypothesis about the effect of climate change is that in many
             locations the frequency of severe storms will increase over time.                 Since
             recurring maintenance expenditures depend primarily on the frequency of storms,
             climate change that increases storm frequency will shorten the time period
             between these expenditures. This would tend to favor- structural -type projects,
             since they have lower maintenance costs.             Again, a perhaps overriding
             consideration for federal projects is the impact of discounting on these future
             costs and their influence on project type and scale. Thus, even though climate
             change may result in a dramatic increase in total lifetime project costs, most
             of the increase occurs beyond the first 15 to 20 years of project life, which


                                                      380







                                                                                Moser, et al.


                    Table 1. Total Relative Sea Level Risk Forecasts in Meters


                Year                       Hampton, VA                Grand Isle, LA


                 t                  1         11        111         1        11       111

                1985                0.0       0.0       0.0         0'0      0.0      0.0
                1990                0.0       0.0       0.0         0.1      0.1      0.1
                1995                0.0       0.0       0.1         0.1      0.1      0.1
                2000                0.1       0.1       0.1         0.2      0.2      0.2
                2005                0.1       0.1       0.1         0.2      0.2      0.2
                2010                0.1       0.1       0.2         0.3      0.3      0.3
                2015                0.2       0.2       0.2         0.3      0.4      0.4
                2020                0.2       0.2       0.3         0.4      0.4      0.5
                2025                0.2       0.3       o.3         0.4      0.5      0.6
                2030                0.3       0.3       0.4         0.5      0.6      0.7
                2035                0.3       0.4       0.5         0.6      0.7      0.8
                2040                0.3       0.4       0.6         0.6      0.8      0.9
                2045                0.4       0.5       0.6         0.7      0.8      1.0
                2050                0.4       0.6       0.7         0.8      0.9      1.1
                2055                0.4       0.6       0.8         0.8      1.0      1.2
                2060                0.5       0.7       0.9         0.9      1.1      1.3
                2065                0.5       0.8       1.0         1.0      1.2      1.5
                2070                0.6       0.8       1.1         1.1      1.3      1.6
                2075                0.6       0.9       1.2         1.1      1.4      1.8
                2080                0.7       1.0       1.4         1.2      1.6      1.9
                2085                0.7       1.1       1.5         1.3      1.7      2.1
                2090                0.8       1.2       1.6         1.4      1.8      2.2
                2095                0.8       1.3       1.7         1.4      1.9      2.4
                2100                0.9       1.4       1.9         1.5      2.0      2.6


                                                                    Implied  Sea
                Scenario                   Coefficient           Level Rise  by 2100


                1                           0.000028                    0.5
                11                          0.000066                    1.0
                111                         0.000105                    1.5
              RSLR      (0.0012 + M/1000)-t + b-t2
                M       Rate of subsidence or uplift in mm/yr
                        3.1 for Hampton, VA
                        8.9 for Grand Isle, LA
                b       The rate of change in rate of growth in eustatic tea level rise for
                        scenarios 1, 11, and 111.
           Source: Based on NRC (1987).



                                                   381








              Economic and Financial Implications

                     $240 -


                     $220-

                     $200-             Design B -- anticipating sea level rise

                     $180-
                                       Scenario III


                     $160-

                 Z   $140-
                 0
                 a)  $120-
                 -2
                 M   $100-
                 >                                           Design A ignoring sea level rise
                      $80-
                                                             Scenario III
                 9)   $60-
                 CL

                      $40-


                      $20-
                 CL
                 X
                 W     $0-

                     ($20)-

                     ($40)-
                         1,00/0        3.0%            5.0%           7.@%           9.0*/0

                                              Discount Rate in Per Cent

              Figure 1.  Expected present value of net benefits as a function of discount rate.


              has little influence on the present value of net benefits. (See the economic
              section of the conference report for a further discussion on discounting.)


              CONCLUSIONS

                   Coastal protection projects can incorporate forecasts of sea level rise and
              storm frequency changes due to climate change through the application of risk
              and uncertainty analysis techniques. The incorporation of these forecasts is
              not a trivial matter, but well within the probabilistic analyses currently
              employed to estimate project benefits and costs for coastal projects. When the
              effects of sea level rise and climate change occur in the future, in-place
              structural projects of larger scale than those warranted under the current sea
              level and storm frequencies would offer greater benefits than those designed for
              the current conditions. In addition, sea level rise and climate change, which
              increase recurring project maintenance costs, tend to favor structural-type
              projects.

                   Risk-cost analysis is not likely to yield definitive answers to the problem
              of choosing adaptive measures to cope with the risk of sea level rise. Other
              considerations that incorporate cultural, social, or environmental aspects

                                                      382









                                                                                      Moser, et al.


             related to sea level rise may be more important in choosing adaptive measures.
             Risk-based approaches remind the analyst, however, that hard engineering options
             may exacerbate losses by encouraging development and fostering a false sense of
             security.    Hard engineering adaptations to sea level rise, particularly the
             barrier type, have the potential for disaster should natural events exceed their
             designed level of protection.        Therefore, decision-makers should be wary of
             engineering solutions with high residual risks.

                  At present, there is considerable disagreement over the degree of sea level
             rise and the impact of climate change on storm frequency. More important, the
             adverse impacts on storm damages occur too far into the future, given the nature
             of discounting and the level of the federal discount rate, to have much influence
             on the economically efficient type and scale of project recommended today. There
             is likely to be a greater reliance on nonstructural, land use management
             solutions that require state and local regulatory controls. The uncertainties
             about the magnitude and rate of change in sea level rise emphasize the need to
             maintain flexibility and emphasizes the adoption of an incremental approach that
             preserves options.


             BIBLIOGRAPHY

             Bakker, W.T. and J.K. Vrijling. 1981. Probabilistic design of sea defences.
             In: Proceedings of the Seventeenth Coastal Engineering Conference, Vol II. New
             York: ASCE.

             Bruun, P.     1962.   Sea level rise as a cause of shore erosion.           Journal of
             Waterways and Harbors Division 1:116-30.

             National Research Council.         1987.    Responding to Changes in        Sea Level:
             Engineering Implications. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

             Schwartz, M.L.    1967.   The Bruun theory of sea level rise as a cause of shore
             erosion. Journal of Geology 75:76-92.

             U.S. Water Resources Council. 1983. Economic and Environmental Principles and
             Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies.
             Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.











                                                       383



                                                                                                                                                                            ---

















                                                                                                                                                        SPEECHES






    I










               GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS FOR ADAPTING TO GLOBAL CHANGE


                                      HONORABLE JOHN A. KNAUSS
                                 Undersecretary of Commerce for
                                        Oceans and Atmosphere
                                    U.S. Department of Commerce
                                            Washington, DC





                 I am pleased to join you this morning here in Miami.     Whoever chose this
            site for a workshop on Adaptive Options and Policy Implications of Sea Level Rise
            certainly chose well.     Here we see a prime example of a fragile coastal
            environment; a heavily built    up coastal area; an excellent example of the
            possible costs and dislocations associated with a significant rise in sea level.

                 You are here to take on     a significant challenge -- how to respond to
            potential major changes in our global environment. The purpose of this workshop
            is to gather information and exchange views on adaptive options -- to learn how
            to protect resources and minimize economic disruption resulting from a potential
            rise in sea level.

                 For those of you, like myself, who have long been concerned with
            environmental issues, these last few months have been almost breathtaking.
            Environmental issues, in particular, the possibility of human-induced global
            change, have reached center stage in much of the world. The global environment
            has become a priority issue in summit discussions. For example, fully one third
            of the summary communique that came out of the economic summit, the G-7
            conference in Paris this past summer, was devoted to environmental issues. Prime
            Minister Thatcher's recent speech to the United Nations General Assembly was
            devoted entirely to environmental matters.     Here in the U.S., President Bush
            has placed environmental concerns near the top of his agenda.

                 In the past year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
            created by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.N. Environment
            Programme in 1988 to address the serious potential consequences of climate
            change, has become a dominant international force. Three working groups under
            the IPCC focus on various aspects of climate change.

                 Working Group I is examining the state of the science: What do we know
            and what don't we know?; How can we gather more information?; How can we be sure
            about the various aspects of climate change, particularly the role of man in
            generating those changes? Working Group 2 is investigating the socioeconomic
            and environmental impacts of climate change. For example, if there is climate

                                                   387








             Speeches

             change, there will be more rainfall in one region than in another; what impacts
             will that have? There also will be warming of the oceans; what impact will this
             have on fisheries? Working Group 3 is focusing on response strategies to climate
             change. It is under the auspices of this third working group that the U.S. is
             hosting this conference.

                  The Netherlands was a member of the U.S. delegation to the Ministerial
             Conference on Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Change.          At that conference,
             there was agreement to use the results of the IPCC deliberations, including the
             results of workshops such as this, as the basis for a framework convention on
             global change. Such a convention probably will be negotiated in the next two to
             three years.     The negotiations and the decisions concerning any frame-work
             convention on   global change and its subsequent protocols will be strongly
             influenced by the work of the IPCC; and by extension, will be strongly influenced
             by your deliberations this week.

                  We're here to discuss sea level rise. What about sea level rise? What do
             we know about it? Geologists have long known that most shoreline areas change
             constantly, because of silting, shoaling, and flooding, and because of changes
             in sea level, caused either by a change in the ocean volume, or by a subsidence
             or rise in the coastal land area.

                  Over geological time scales the shoreline is a very dynamic feature. Even
             on a scale of decades, we have often seen significant changes in the shoreline
             __ much of those changes caused by either the sinking or rising of the land.
             In much of Scandinavia, for example, sea level is dropping -- not because there
             is less water in the ocean but because the earth is rising, at a rate of about
             I cm a year. This rise in the Earth's surface, also occurring in Canada and much
             of the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere, is due to the isostatic
             adjustment that occurred after the disappearance of the glaciers some 10,000
             years ago. In Japan, one of the more tectonically active regions of the earth,
             depending on which part of the country you're in, sea level is either sinking
             or rising, at rates of from 0.5 to 2 cm per year. Again, this is due to land
             changes, not changes in sea level.

                  So, how should we respond to shoreline changes?         One might argue that a
             prudent nation would build back from the shore, and leave the dynamic, constantly
             changing shoreline alone.       If we all did this, there would be no need for
             workshops such as this one. However, we must have our coastal ports. Many of
             the great cities of the world began as ocean ports -- New York, Venice, Rio de
             Janero, Rotterdam. -Are they to be abandoned because of rising sea level?          Yet,
             some island nations, such as the Maldives and the Trust Territories in the
             Pacific, could lose much of their total land as a result of a significant          rise
             in sea level. Nations such as Bangladesh could suffer significant loss of          land
             area because they are built on a coastal plain, as could some of the U.S.          Gulf
             Coast states (e.g., Louisiana and Texas), which are geologically similar.

                  Coping with rising sea level, or sinking land level, is not a new
             phenomenon. Venice, which has been grappling with this problem for years, has
             been sinking into the ocean at about 20 m a century.         The Netherlands decided

                                                       388










                                                                                          Knauss

            long ago that if they were to provide enough land for their citizens, much of
            it would have to be below sea level.     More than 50 percent of the Netherlands
            is now below sea level. Here in the United States, the great port city of New
            Orleans is some number of feet below the Mississippi River, which flows
            alongside.

                 Thus, while the risks of living on the shore may be high, the benefits, and
            often the necessity, of coastal living usually predominate.

                 Given the fact that this is not a new problem, why the increased interest
            in sea level rise?    There are at least two reasons.     One is that what we are
            facing is a global issue, not a regional one, not a local one. A rise in sea
            level due to melting of glaciers and expansion of sea water will have a worldwide
            impact.   Second, and more important, particularly in a political sense, this
            change in sea level will be human-induced. If our activities cause an increase
            in global temperature, then we are responsible for a rise in sea level, because
            one consequence of global warming is an increase in the volume of the ocean and
            a consequent worldwide rise in sea level.

                 The issues of climate change and sea level rise, therefore, are much more
            than fodder for scientific discussion. They are truly global issues that affect
            us all.   The diversity of the attendance here     --   scientists, policy-makers,
            diplomats, academicians from 38 countries -- reflects both the global nature and
            the importance of these matters.

                 How much do we know about climate change and sea level rise? To a large
            degree, our decisions in the future will be based on our knowledge about the
            risks involved. To support the decisions we have to make, we must improve our
            ability to understand and to forecast trends in climate change and sea level
            rise. Part of our strategy to address global change must include improving the
            data and information we have available.

                 As the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
            (NOAA), this is a particularly important issue to me personally, and to my
            agency.   And as a scientist, I must acknowledge that the present data and
            information base is not as robust as many of us would like. On the other hand,
            what we do know is sufficiently compelling to generate wide concern. There is
            a growing sense that we cannot wait until we are absolutely certain before we
            begin to take at least limited action, and under any circumstances, prepare for
            what might follow.

                 What we do know is that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have
            increased nearly 30% within the last 100 years and are now higher than at any
            time in the last 40,000 years. While we have not been measuring carbon dioxide
            for 40,000 years, we can get some estimate of what C02 concentrations were back
            then by measuring the air trapped in ice cores where the ice was deposited 20,000
            to 100,000 years ago. It is quite clear there is more CO, in the atmosphere now.
            And the concentration of C02 has been increasing at a rate of about 4% per
            decade. There is no doubt that human activities are generating enormous amounts
            of carbon dioxide and other radiatively important gases, such as methane and

                                                    389








             Speeches

             chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).        We are affecting Earth's heat budget as a
             consequence. How the global    climate will respond to these changes in the heat
             budget is still a matter of debate.

                  A second debatable issue is whether or not we have already seen global
             warming as a result of increased carbon dioxide.      There are various opinions.
             At least some studies for which long-term temperature records were examined
             indicate that present global temperatures are the highest ever recorded and still
             rising.   For example, one analysis of temperature from land-based sites has
             documented an observed worldwide increase in temperature of 0.40C since the start
             of the industrial revolution. On the other hand, two recent articles published
             by NOAA scientists have shown that there has been no significant increase in
             temperatures over the contiguous U.S. in the last 100 years.

                  These two seemingly disparate results are not necessarily in conflict. We
             can indeed have a worldwide warming that will not be uniform. We can be almost
             certain it will not be uniform; some areas might even cool.        But the average
             temperature of the Earth will rise.

                  Projecting the change in sea level from global warming is equally complex
             and uncertain. There is general agreement in the scientific community that a
             rapid sea level rise, projected by some a few years ago, is rather unlikely.
             It is generally accepted that global sea level has increased at a rate of 1-2
             m per year over the 1 ast century.     But even here, the uncertainty is great.
             Detecting that small of a change is not, easy. In many parts of the world, the
             tectonic movement of the land is 5 to 10 times greater. Furthermore, the present
             worldwide network of tide gauges for measuring sea level was established
             primarily for purposes of maritime safety, and not for the purpose of determining
             the ri se and f al 1 of sea 1 evel .The distribution is not ideal for attacking this
             problem. Many of my colleagues would not be too surprised to find that when all
             the data is in and analyzed, it  will not be possible to say whether or not there
             has been a rise in sea level in the last 100 years.

                  As for the future,. in spite of all the well-publicized concern about global
             warming, we must understand that there is still considerable uncertainty among
             scientific experts about a number of the most critical factors that determine
             global warming and, as a consequence, global sea level.       We remain uncertain
             about the magnitude and the timing of such changes, as well as about the specific
             impacts in different regions of the world.

                  The Earth system is composed of a variety of interactive parts, These
             climate interactions include cloud cover, snow and ice, hydrology, and ocean
             circulation, amongst others.    Key scientific questions focus on the processes
             that tie the system together.

                  One of the biggest areas of uncertainty is the role of the oceans in climate
             change.   Although the sun drives the system, the ocean serves as a somewhat
             erratic "fly wheel" that mitigates the sharp seasonal changes and interannual
             variations. We must improve our understanding of ocean variability and how the


                                                     390










                                                                                         Knauss

            ocean interacts with the atmosphere on a global basis.       That point has been
            stressed recently.

                 The World Meteorological Organization noted in June 1989 that existing
            ocean observing networks generally are not adequate to meet the international
            scientific requirements for climate monitoring, research, and prediction.         A
            month later, in July, the IOC determined that there is an urgent need to
            substantially modernize and expand the existing global ocean observing systems.
            I agree. But monitoring the oceans is difficult because of the vast expanse,
            the diversity of ocean processes, and quite frankly, because there is still much
            that is poorly understood.

                 There currently exists a surface-based observational network that is a
            mixture of hundreds of various ocean measurement systems and platforms; in
            addition, there are nearly 8,000 worldwide volunteer observing ships. Some of
            these programs are operational, while others support research programs. They
            are managed by an equally varied group of more than 100 nations, plus
            intergovernmental bodies and agencies, many with different missions and
            objectives. The systems are often incompatible in type, location, data format,
            and communication links. That existing network, such as it is, is an unfinished
            patchwork quilt; many pieces are in place, some are not.          Before we truly
            understand the ocean's role in global warming, we will need       to pull all the
            existing pieces together and begin "sewing" the quilt.      We are on our way to
            doing just this.

                 Major international programs such as the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere
            (TOGA), and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), have begun to provide
            the needed scientific bases for defining the network. And they have begun to
            assemble some preliminary pieces.       But there is still much to be done.
            Satellites, for example, can only do part of the job. They are wonderful for
            looking at the atmosphere; satellites cannot be used to penetrate the ocean --
            they can only look at the surface of the ocean.           For example, satellite
            measurements cannot tell us anything significant about the movement of heat from
            one ocean basin to another.

                 Once the observational network is complete, we must identify the
            intergovernmental mechanisms needed to maintain it.

                 As the U.S. Earth systems agency, we at NOAA have the responsibility for
            monitoring and predicting environmental change.      We have a major role in the
            scientific examination of global warming and attendant sea level rise.         NOAA
            has already begun a comprehensive effort to improve the global ocean-observing
            system. One part of that task is to improve our tide gauge network so we can
            better monitor changes in sea level.

                 NOAA has been in the business of measuring tides and water levels for more
            than 140 years. Our longest continuous series of measurements began at San
            Francisco in 1854.   And, of course, compared to some of our European colleagues,
            we are rather "Johnny-come-latelys" in the business of measuring sea level.


                                                   391









            Speeches

                 Sea level measurement is going through a revolutionary change at present.
            Because of recent advances in geodetic positioning, it is now possible to measure
            the true sea level with a precision never before possible.       That is, we can
            distinguish the movement of the tide gauge caused by the land from movement
            caused by actual change in sea level.

                 In summary, understanding and predicting global change requires a truly
            global partnership. International organizations are defining the requirements

            for a global ocean observing system and will play a pivotal role in maintaining
            that observing system over the long term.

                 It is a challenge for each of us personally to work within our country for
            increased scientific research and intergovernmental support for a global
            observation network.

                 Your task this week is to consider the consequences of sea level rise
            resulting from global change, to identify rational approaches to climate change
            and sea level rise, and to consider the policy implications of such responses.
            If we think that solving the scientific riddle is a challenge, I expect that the
            search for responses and solutions will be even more of a challenge. It is a
            process that we need to begin now.

                 It may be the task of science to provide us with high-quality information
            and predictions that can guide our efforts, but we cannot wait for science to
            give us definitive answers before we get on with the planning and the assessing
            of our options.























                                                   392









                                         LUNCHEON REMARKS


                                               JOHN DOYLE
                                 Office of the Assistant Secretary
                                            for Civil Works
                                                U.S. Army
                                             Washington, DC





                 It is a distinct pleasure for me to represent the Assistant Secretary of the
            Army for Civil Works and, with my co-hosts from NOAA and U.S. EPA, to welcome
            this distinguished body of international delegates and to participate with you
            in the exchange of information and ideas at this IPCC Sea Level Rise Workshop.

                 Let me begin by explaining that my office oversees the civil-oriented work
            of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers which is the principal U.S. agency for
            development of water resources projects throughout the United States. The Army
            has been doing such work since 1824, when it had the country's only organized
            group of engineers and was charged by the Congress to develop navigation
            projects.

                 Since 1824, the Army's responsibilities have been expanded by the Congress
            to encompass virtually all types of water resources development projects
            including single purpose navigation, flood control, and coastal projects.
            Multipurpose projects also include features that provide for industrial and
            municipal water supply, hydroelectric power production, irrigation, resource
            conservation, and recreation. We also have regulatory responsibilities, which
            include management of the nations' waters, including controls associated with
            tidal and non-tidal wetlands.

                 I must emphasize that in the process of executing our water resources
            development and regulatory responsibilities, the Department of the Army, through
            the Corps of Engineers, works with a wide spectrum of other federal agencies,
            as well as state and local governments, and public interest groups. Through this
            cooperative and collaborative process we in effect, join in multiple partnerships
            with others to evaluate and decide on the            broad social, economic and
            environmental implications of alternative public investment options related to
            water resources development and conservation.        Hence, we and our companion
            agencies of the U.S. Government find the IPCC a familiar and comfortable forum
            in which to participate and to join with you as partners in formulating solutions
            to problems that could arise in the event of human-induced climate change.

                 With that brief background, I would now like to share with you the views
            of the U.S. Department of the Army concerning the implications of a possible
            future accelerated ri se i n sea level , and what we are doing at present to address

                                                    393









            Speeches

            the consequences of that potential phenomenon in terms of planning adaptive
            options.

                First, we do not view the potential for accelerated sea level rise with
            either alarm or complacency.     In general , there does not appear to be a
            substantive basis for broad and immediate emergency action. Moreover, in many
            situations in the United States and throughout the world, the effects of an
            increase in the level of the seas could be accommodated in the normal course of
            maintaining or replacing existing facilities or protective structures without
            extraordinary added costs related to sea level rise. However, near-term action
            may be warranted in limited geographic areas having low topographic elevations
            and/or significant land subsidence rates.

                The options available for adapting to sea level rise with respect to
            developed areas are those traditionally used for responding to threats of storm
            tides and wave action in coastal and estuarial zones, namely: (1) stabilization
            measures, such as seawalls, bulkheads, revetments, beach fills, groins,
            breakwaters, flood walls, levees, and estuarial or sea-entrance tidal barriers;
            (2) elevating of lands and facilities usually with the application of
            stabilization measures; and (3) retreat from hazardous or threatened areas.
            Advanced measures such as land use management can be employed in areas which are
            presently extremely hazardous or would become so in the event of a marked rise
            in sea level.

                In regard to the choice of an option or set of options, most developed
            areas that would be exposed to the impacts of a rising sea level possess their
            own singular mixes of physical, social, economic, political and environmental
            characteristics. These composite characteristics would, case by case, govern
            the choice, initiation, and phasing-in of an adaptive response or set of
            responses to a rise of sea level. Doubtless, the implementation of responses,
            from national or global perspectives, would be a slowly evolving process
            following the anticipated gradual rise in sea level, should enhanced greenhouse
            effects occur.

                In any case, those charged        with planning, design, or management
            responsibilities in the coastal and estuarial zones should be aware of and
            sensitized to the possibilities and   quantitative uncertainties pertaining to
            future sea level rise. It may be some time before we know what changes, if any,
            are taking place in the levels of the seas vis-a-vis climate change. Moreover,
            if this phenomenon does occur and is  detected, additional time will transpire
            before definite rates and trends of the rise are established relative to land
            surfaces in specific areas of concern.

                In the-meantime, we should, wherever possible, conduct our activities so
            as to leave options open for the most appropriate future response without undue
            current investments, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
            I realize that this is not an easy task, even when the involved institutional
            establishment has a common viewpoint on the potential problem. Certain realities
            and constraints must be recognized.     For example, traditional benefit-cost
            analyses, with the high discount rates currently in use, do not generate
            significant benefit values for the prevention of damage events that are expected

                                                  394








                                                                                               Doy7e

            to occur 35 to 50 years i n the f uture     even when the I i kel i hood of such events
            can be strongly supported by past events and statistical analyses. Thus, water
            resources projects for which benefits are long term are normally deferred in
            favor of more certain, near-term benefits.

                 Nevertheless, something can be done to prepare for potential future
            problems.    As an illustration, many protective structures such as levees,
            seawalls, and breakwaters can be planned and designed with features that allow
            for future incremental additions that, if needed, could accommodate increased
            water levels and wave action.         This can be done, in many cases, without
            significant additional costs in the initial investments.

                 Other actions can be taken now, or strategies and technologies developed,
            that require little investment and can in fact, reduce current operating
            expenditures. One important example that comes to mind is the beneficial use
            of material dredged from navigation projects in the creation of tidal wetland
            habitats. We are vigorously pursuing this option at both the research and the
            field application levels.        This use of dredged material can, in proper
            circumstances, reduce the costs of disposal of the material while offsetting
            wetland losses due to sea level rise or other causes.

                 Though   sea level     rise would seemingly reduce navigation dredging
            requirements by naturally providing deeper waters, such an effect would, if at
            all, be short lived. In this connection, one has only to consider that vertical
            shoaling rates of one meter per year are extremely common, and that little
            advantage to navigation would be gained by a I- to 2-meter rise in sea level over
            a 100-year period.      In any case, we expect that overall navigation dredging
            demands will not be significantly affected by changing sea level, albeit, long-
            term changes in areal distributions of shoaling may attend a gradual rise in sea
            level.

                 In this country, the possibility of a large-scale program to create tidal
            wetlands with dredged material is evident in considering that over the past
            decade, the Army Corps of Engineers has excavated an average annual quantity of
            250 million cubic meters of uncontaminated dredged material from navigation
            projects. Moreover, most of this material is removed from channels and harbors
            in the coastal and Great Lakes regions. If placed to a thickness of I cm, 250
            million cubic meters of dredged material each year would cover an area of about
            25,000 hectares. Admittedly, all uncontaminated dredged material could not be
            effectively used for purposes of wetland creation, but a substantial amount could
            be applied in that way and would significantly offset loss of tidal wetland due
            to sea level rise.

                 Now a few words about what we are doing to address the basis issue.

                 To assure a consistent approach to considerations of possible accelerated
            sea level rise, the Army Corps of Engineers has adopted uniform planning
            procedures. The procedures require that potential sea level change be considered
            in every project feasibility study undertaken within the coastal and estuarial
            zones. Study areas are to extend as far inland as the potential future limits
            of tidal influence.     This applies primarily to the study and formulation of
            shore protection, flood control, and navigation projects.

                                                      395








             Speeches


                  The future head' of tides is based on the sea level rise scenario considered
             most probable by the National Research Council in its 1987 report on the subject
             of responding to changes in sea level. S'   pecifically, the rate of rise of sea
             level' is represented by an exponential curve resulting in a 1-meter rise by the
             year'2100. Also to be considered is the National Research Council's most likely
             high envelope of sea level rise, which again, is represented by an exponential
             curve, but one that reaches a rise level of 1.5 meters by the year 2100. Where
             land areas are experiencing subsidence or uplift, those respective rates of
             change must be added to or subtracted from the previously mentioned curve values
             in order to obtain a tota-1 relative sea level change.

                  On the basis of these possibilities, our procedures call for the performance
             of sensitivity tests or analyses to determine what effects (if any) the changes
             in the rate of sea level rise would have on the evaluation and selection of a
             plan. Emphasis is placed on developing strategies that would be appropriate for
             the largest possible range@'of uncertainty with regard to future   sea levels.   It
             is important to mention, however, that the planning process in    which sea level
             rise is being evaluated embraces many project-related social, economic, and
             environmental considerations that may or may not be influenced by the question
             of future sea level. Accordingly, sea level is only one of many factors to be
             considered in the weighing and balancing necessary to arrive at optimal project
             formulation.

                  The Response Strategies Work Group of IPCC met in Geneva in early October
             and developed five papers that are to be used by the subgroups as guidance in
             developing subgroup reports. All those papers are important to the work going
             on here.   However, the paper dealing with technology development and transfer
             is particularly relevant.     In summarizing my remarks today, I would like to
             emphasize several themes in that paper.

                  First, we are discussing adaptive techniques. Some discussions in Geneva
             indicated that if climate and sea level changes occur in significant measure,
             the changes will be sufficiently far in the future and sufficiently gradual that
             we do not have to be concerned about them now.         The Geneva meeting wisely
             rejected that notion. While we agree with the assessment that significant change
             is not imminent, we do not agree that we can wait until some uncertain future
             time to address the need for new technologies and new institutional and
             management mechanisms to advance those technologies. It can certainly be argued-,
             that we may never need new technologies or new management mechanisms. But the
             counter argument is that we do not anticipate potential problems, we may not
             have time to react intelligently if they should arise.

                  In connection with addressing the technology, we must also improve and
             refine our ways of assessing the economic, environmental, and social impacts of
             these potential changes. The interrelationships are complex. We will need to
             put the best mi nds to work on these probl ems. That i s why you peopl e are here.
             The task ahead is monumental. I urge you to continue your work in earnest. Good
             luck, and best wishes.




                                                    396


                                                U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1990 0 - 267-663 : OL 3
























                                       IIIIIIIIIIIIIN
                                     -1 3 6668 00000 5365