[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]





      Service Assessment





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                 Cover photograph: Hurricane Bertha - http.,Ilwww.ncdc.noaa.govlpubldatalimageslI







       Service Assessment


                URRICAN


       July 5 -14, 1996








                                            Property of CSC Library















                                                                                              P"FMOSPI"
       U.S. Department of Commerce
       National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
       National Weather Service
       Silver Spring, MD
                                                                                         C,
       BERTHA












       April 1997                    US Department of commerce                                NENT Of-
                                     NOAA Coastal Services center Library
                                     2234 South Hobson Avenue
                                     Charleston, SC 29405-2413








                                                        Preface


                The primary purpose of this Service Assessment is to document the evaluation of the National
                Weather Service's (NWS) performance in fulfilling its mission of providing timely warnings and
                accurate forecasts for Hurricane Bertha. The NWS's products and services used by emergency
                managers are key to preparedness for and the mitigation of a tropical cyclone's impact. More
                specifically, this was the first time a complete Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) was used in an
                operational environment. This team is ajoint venture between the Federal Emergency
                Management Agency (FEMA), the NWS and state and local emergency management officials.
                The concept is to supplement the National Hurricane Center (NHC) staff with Federal, state and
                local emergency management personnel to provide information and coordination between the
                NHC and emergency management decision makers. As this assessment has noted, the warning
                process is a partnership between the NWS and all organizations charged with responding to
                natural hazards. We in the NWS will continue to forge and nurture relationships to ensure the
                best possible warning service for our citizens.





                                                                  Elbert W. Friday, Jr.
                                                                  April 1997








                                             Table of Contents

                                                                                                          Page

            Preface   ....................................................................                    ii


            Acronyms    ..................................................................                   iv

            Acknowledgments      ...........................................................                 vi

            Executive Summary     ..........................................................                 ix

            Summary of Findings and Recommendations         .......................................          xii


            Chapter 1      Service Assessment Summary       .....................................             I

            Chapter 2      National Perspectives   .............................................              5
                                   National Hurricane Center    ...................................           5
                                   Hydrometeorological Prediction Center      ........................       11
                                   Marine Prediction Center    ....................................          12
                                   Storm Prediction Center  .....................................            16


            Chapter 3      Regional Perspectives    ............................................             19
                                   Southern Region    ...........................................            19
                                   Eastern Region   ............................................             23


            Appendices

            Appendix A Saffir-Simpson Scale        ............................................            A-1

            Appendix B     Meteorological Tables    ...........................................            B-I

            Appendix C     Fujita Scale  ....................................................              C-1

            Appendix D     Tornado Watch Areas      ...........................................            D-I

            Appendix E     Aerial Survey    ..................................................             E-I





                                                            iii







                                    Acronyms


           AFOS      Automation of Field Operations and Services
           AOC       Aircraft Operations Center
           ASOS      Automated Surface Observing System
           AST       Atlantic Standard Time
           AVN       Aviation Model
           CWA       County Warning Area
           DEMA      Delaware Emergency Management Agency
           ECMWF     European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
           EDT       Eastern Daylight Time
           EMC       Emergency Management Center
           EMWIN     Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
           ERH       Eastern Region Headquarters
           ET        Electronics Technician
           Eta       Eta Model
           FAA       Federal Aviation Administration
           FEMA      Federal Emergency Management Agency
           ft        feet
           GFDL      Geophysical Fluids Dynamical Lab Model
           GOES      Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
           HLS       Hurricane Local Statement
           HLT       Hurricane Liaison Team
           HPC       Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
           in        inch
           IR        Infrared
           kts       knots
           MAR'      Modernization and Restructuring
           mb,       millibar
           MIC       Meteorologist in Charge
           MPC       Marine Prediction Center
           mph       miles per hour
           MRF       Medium-range Forecast Model
           MRFX      Medium-range Forecast Experimental Model
           NAWAS     National Warning System
           NCEP      National Centers for Environmental Prediction
           NEXRAD    Next Generation Weather Radar
           NGM       Nested Grid Model
           NHC       National Hurricane Center
           nm        nautical miles
           NOAA      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
           NOGAPS    Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

                                          iv











       NOW        Short Term Forecast
       NWR        NOAA Weather Radio
       NWS        National Weather Service
       NWSFO      NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office
       NWSO       NEXRAD Weather Service Office
       NWWS       NOAA Weather Wire Service
       OM         Office of Meteorology
       PUP        Principal User Processor
       QPF        Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
       RDA        Radar Data Acquisition
       Soo        Science and Operations Officer
       SPC        Storm Prediction Center
       SRH        Southern Region Headquarters
       SSMI       Special Sensor Microwave Imagery
       TPC        Tropical Prediction Center
       TWC        The Weather Channel
       UTC        Coordinated Universal Time
       VIS        Visible
       VITEMA     Virgin Islands Territory Emergency Management Agency
       WCM        Warning Coordination Meteorologist
       WFO        Weather Forecast Office
       WSH        Weather Service Headquarters
       WSR-88D    Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler
       WV         Water vapor
























                                     v







                                              Acknowledgments

                This report was produced by having those responsible for each portion of the service provided
                write their own section. Each NWS field office and NWS Regional Office affected by Bertha
                conducted its own survey of the services they provided. Additionally, assessments were written
                by the National Centers that provided products and services related to Bertha. The Service
                Assessment Team is grateful to all those that provided valuable input into this document. The
                individuals primarily responsible for the Assessment are as follows:


                Service Assessment Team


                Rick Watling, Products and Services Manager, Meteorological Services Division, NWS Eastern
                Region Headquarters (ERH), Bohemia, New York

                Gene Hafele, Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM), NEXRAD (Next Generation
               'Weather Radar) Weather Service Office (NWSO), Houston, Texas

               ,Scott Kiser, Technical Leader, Customer Service, Office of Meteorology (OM), Weather Service
                Headquarters (WSH), Silver Spring, Maryland


                NWS National Centers

                Robert Burpee, Director, Tropical Predication Center (TPQ, Miami, Florida

                Miles Lawrence, Hurricane Specialist, NHC, Miami, Florida

                Mike Schichtel, Meteorologist, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), Camp Springs,
                Maryland

                Dave Feit, Chief Marine Forecast Branch, Marine Prediction Center (MPC), Camp Springs,
                Maryland

                Fred Ostby, Chief Operational Guidance Branch, Storm Prediction Center (SPQ, Kansas City,
                Missouri










                                                             vi








          Weather Service Headquarters

          Rainer Dombrowsky, Customer Service, OM, WSH, Silver Spring, Maryland

          Linda Kremkau, Technical Editor, Customer Service, OM, WSH, Silver Spring, Maryland


          NWS Regions and Field Offices

          Gary Woodall, WCM, Southern Region Headquarters (SRH), Fort Worth, Texas

          Harvey Thurm, Synoptic Scale Meteorologist, ERH, Bohemia, New York

          Brian Smith, WCM, NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO), Omaha, Nebraska

          Steve Rich, Meteorologist in Charge (MIC), NWSO, Charleston, South Carolina

          Jerry Harrison, WCM, NWSO, Charleston, South Carolina

          Bernie Palmer, MIC, NWSFO, Columbia, South Carolina

          Steve Naglic, WCM, NWSFO, Columbia, South Carolina

          Richard Anthony, MIC, NWSO, Wilmington, North Carolina

          Tom Matheson, WCM, NWSO, Wilmington, North Carolina

          Tom Krielm, MIC, NWSO, Morehead City, North Carolina

          Dan Bartholf, WCM, NWSO, Morehead City, North Carolina

          Steve Harned, MIC, NWSFO, Raleigh, North Carolina

          George Lemons, WCM, NWSFO, Raleigh, North Carolina

          Tony Siebers, MIC, NWSO, Wakefield, Virginia

          Hugh Cobb, Science and Operations Officer (SOO), NWSO, Wakefield, Virginia

          Bill Sammler, WCM, NWSO, Wakefield, Virginia

          Jim Travers, MIC, NWSFO, Sterling, Virginia


                                                   vii









              Gary Szatkowski, Deputy MIC, NWSFO, Sterling, Virginia

              Barbara Watson, WCM, NWSFO, Sterling, Virginia

              Chet Henricksen, MIC, NWSFO, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

              Joe Miketta, WCM, NWSFO, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

              Mike Wyllie, MIC, NWSFO, New York City, New York

              Gary Conte, WCM, NWSFO, New York City, New York

              Bob Thompson, MIC, NWSFO, Boston, Massachusetts

              Dave Vallee, Service Hydrologist, NWSFO, Boston, Massachusetts

              Glenn Field, WCM, NWSFO, Boston, Massachusetts


              Al Wheeler, MIC, NWSFO, Portland, Maine


              John Jensenius, WCM, NWSFO, Portland, Maine

              Patricia Haas, Hydrologist, Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, Pennsylvania

              Israel Matos, MIC, NWSFO, San Juan, Puerto Rico

              Rafael Mojica, WCM, NWSFO, San Juan, Puerto Rico

              Paul Hebert, MIC, NWSFO, Miami, Florida


              Jim Lushine, WCM, NWSFO, Miami, Florida


              Bart Hagemeyer, MIC, NWSO, Melbourne, Florida

              Dennis Decker, WCM, NWSO, Melbourne, Florida


              Steve Letro, MIC, NWSO, Jacksonville, Florida


              Fred Johnson, WCM, NWSO, Jacksonville, Florida








                                                        viii







                                         Executive Summary


            Background

            Hurricane Bertha was an early season Category 2 storm when it made landfall on the coast of
            North Carolina on July 12, 1996. Twelve deaths have been directly attributed to Bertha with
            United States damages estimated at $270 million. Extensive evacuations of vulnerable areas
            occurred in advance of Bertha, including 250 million in North Carolina, 80,000 in South
            Carolina and 20,000 in Georgia. Revenue losses to the tourist industry approached $40 million.

            Bertha closely paralleled the southeast U.S. coast at a distance from 170 to 200 miles. This
            created multiple state involvement with almost all of the U.S. east coast involved with some
            watch or warning. The NHC's track forecast was very accurate with average forecast track errors
            15 percent lower than the 10-year official track averages. Where the storm came ashore in North
            Carolina, watches and warnings were posted 65 hours and 47 hours before landfall, respectively,
            which far exceeds the NHC stated goals of 36 and 24 hours. Nevertheless, the coordination
            between NHC and emergency managers, regarding the issuances of watches and warnings, was
            frustrated by efforts to reconcile the meteorology of the event with state and local response
            requirements. Bertha's anticipated turn from a northwest direction to north-northwest as it
            approached the southeast coast was agonizingly slow. This put a great deal of pressure on the
            elected officials and Emergency Management Centers (EMCs) of Florida, South Carolina and
            North Carolina concerning what actions to take. This was also the first time the HLT had been
            fully deployed at the NHC. A Service Assessment Team was dispatched to the NHC as well as
            the impacted states to investigate these issues and to evaluate the HLT.



            Issues


            Bertha's slow northward turn off the Florida coast caused the state of Florida to urge NHC to
            issue watches when NHC felt they were unnecessary. The major concern was that if the storm
            continued to move differently than forecast, sufficient response time would not be available if
            watches or warnings were issued at short notice. Similarly, South Carolina expressed the need
            for early release of the official forecast track before NHC had completed the internal NWS
            coordination process. Several recommendations have been made in this report to help resolve
            theseissues.


            A variety of communication/coordination issues were also revealed. NHC/state briefings were
            complicated by the fact that no single communication system was used to brief state emergency
            management officials, adding to the workload of the hurricane specialists and confusion between
            state EMCs and the NHC as to what method of coordination would be employed. Similar


                                                          ix










                coordination problems occurred between NWS field offices and local EMCs as well as between
                some state and local EMC(s). Internal coordination between NWS offices posed difficulties as
                not all necessary offices are connected to the Hurricane Hotline. This problem will continue to
                increase as additional NWS offices spin up to full Weather Forecast Office (WFO) status.

                The amount of meteorological information received by state and local EMCs to a large extent
                depended upon the resources available to each office. Even though it is not considered an
                operational system, Internet received high praise while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
                Administration (NOAA) Weather Wire Service (NWWS) continues to prove too costly for some
                EMCs. Additionally, NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) coverage is still lacking in some coastal
                areas. Accordingly, the NWS should seek to expand implementation of the Emergency
                Management Weather Information Network (EMWIN) as well as NWR.

                This was the first time the HLT was used in an operational environment. This team is ajoint
                venture between FEMA, the NWS and state and local emergency management officials. The
                concept is to supplement the NHC staff with Federal, state and local emergency management
                personnel to provide information and coordination between the NHC and emergency
                management decision makers. As this is a new initiative, the HLT is still evolving in response to
                the needs and desires of both the partners in the HLT and their customers. Questions remain
                regarding the ultimate mission, function and operations of the HLT. Additionally, a larger
                resource pool of available people to staff the HLT needs to be identified, and smoother
                procedures for setting up the team's hardware need to be established.

                Some data acquisition problems were also noted. The St. Croix and St. Thomas Automated
                Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) were both powered down by the Federal Aviation
                Administration (FAA) when the airport towers were abandoned resulting in the loss of valuable
                ground truth data. Due to the remoteness of the site, the San Juan Weather Surveillance Radar-
                1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) remote data acquisition (RDA) unit uses generator power since
                commercial power is not available. The generator produces irregular frequency fluctuations
                which puts the system out of service. The FAA electronics technician was able to keep the
                system operational throughout the storm, and a more permanent fix was employed after the
                .passage of Bertha. NWSFO Miami noted that without data off the southeast Florida coast, no
                wave information is available south of Melbourne. This forced the staff to estimate waves from
                their wind forecasts.



                Meteorology

                Bertha was -an early season Cape Verde hurricane which started as a tropical depression in the
                central tropical Atlantic on July 5. For 3 days, the depression moved west-northwest at 23 to
                29 miles per hour (mph) and strengthened to a hurricane on July 8 as the center moved across the
                Leeward and Virgin Islands of the northeast Caribbean. Bertha turned northwestward on July 9.
                Maximum sustained winds reached 115 mph at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), when


                                                                x










            Bertha was centered 138 miles north of Puerto Rico. The last hurricane to reach this strength this
            early in the season was Alma in 1966. Moving northwest, the center paralleled the Bahama
            islands. The track became north-northwest on July 10 and I I as the center moved parallel to the
            coast of Florida and Georgia. With a forward speed of 17 mph, Bertha made landfall at 4 p.m.
            EDT on July 12 on the coast of North Carolina, midway between Wrightsville and Topsail
            Beaches.
            Bertha quickly dropped below hurricane strength when it moved inland over eastern North
            Carolina. Highest wind gusts reported on land were 108 mph at Camp Lejeune and Jacksonville,
            North Carolina. The lowest observed sea-level pressure at landfall was 977 millibars (mb) at
            Surf City, North Carolina. A value of 974 mb is assumed to be the minimum landfall pressure.
            Bertha then moved northeast along the U.S. east coast, producing 45 to 60 mph sustained winds
            over land from northern North Carolina to New England. Bertha was declared extratropical on
            July 14 when the center moved from the Maine coast to New Brunswick, Canada.

            Coastal storm surge flood heights, from Florida through New England, ranged from I to 4 feet,
            but values to 5 feet were estimated on the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout.
            A storm surge of 6 feet was indicated near Swansboro, North Carolina.

            Rainfall associated with Bertha occurred from the eastern Carolinas to Maine with many
            locations receiving 2- to 4-inch amounts. Isolated reports of over 6 inches were reported from
            North Carolina to Massachusetts. The maximum was 7.20 inches at Billerica, Massachusetts.
            Bertha's rapid motion through the Northeast served to limit rainfall duration and amounts.

            Six tornadoes have been confirmed with four in Virginia, one in North Carolina and one in
            Maryland.






















                                                          xi







                                                 Summary of
                                 Findings and Recommendations

                                           National Implementation


               Finding 1a:           Some confusion remains as to the purpose of the HLT.

               Finding 1b:           The workload for the hurricane specialists, with the HLT in place, was
                                     not reduced and in some instances increased.


               Recommendation 1:     In conjunction with FEMA, the functions and operations of the HLT
                                     must be reviewed and refined. The results should be briefed at the
                                     National Hurricane Conference and other suitable forums. FEMA
                                     representatives are encouraged to take an active role in the
                                     Interdepartmental Hurricane Conferences.


               Finding 2:            There are insufficient HLT members to support speciality functions
                                     (electronics, communications) to avoid burnout, turnover and absences
                                     due to sickness, annual leave, etc.


               Recommendation 2:     As part of the NWS/FEMA review, the specific tasks of the HLT
                                     members must be outlined and an adequate resource pool identified.
                                     The NOAA/NWS Hurricane Conference should be the forum for
                                     discussing and validating HLT mission, membership and other
                                     requirements.



               Finding 3:            Hardware required to support the HLT is extensive and requires
                                     significant time and effort to set up.

               Recommendation 3:     FEMA must provide a complete set of instructions that will assist in the
                                     set-up process. Additionally, FEMA and NHC should identify electronic
                                     specialist(s) who can set up and test the equipment prior to the arrival of
                                     the HLT. Given the location of the NHC on the Florida International
                                     University campus, NHC could explore the possibility of involving
                                     university resources to assist in the process.






                                                          xii










            Finding 4a:           There was no single communication system used to brief state
                                  emergency management officials. This led to confusion among the
                                  EMCs.


            Finding 4b-           NHC was required to conduct multiple briefings when more than one
                                  state was impacted by Hurricane Bertha. This proved to be extremely
                                  time consuming for the hurricane specialists.

            Finding 4c:           During teleconferences established by the HLT, the local NWS offices
                                  were not always involved.

            Finding 4d:           Several times local emergency managers were tied into state and
                                  regional briefings coordinated through the HLT. The locals would then
                                  be brought into a local conference call with their state and local NWS
                                  offices. This was repetitive and not a good use of the local emergency
                                  managers limited time.

            Finding 4e:           NHC briefing calls to North Carolina state emergency management
                                  officials frequently came at times when these individuals were already in
                                  the midst of a briefing by the NWSFO or with local emergency
                                  management officials along the coast.

            Recommendation 4:     FEMA and the NWS must ensure that coordination methodologies and
                                  protocols are firmly established before the next hurricane season. The
                                  local NWS office(s) must be included in all NHC state conference calls
                                  to add local expertise and to prepare for their coordination calls with
                                  local emergency managers.


            Finding 5a:           The Modernization and Restructuring (MAR) of the NWS has created a
                                  greater need for internal forecast coordination as the number of forecast
                                  offices has increased.


            Finding 5b:           As Hurricane Bertha approached the Delmarva region,confusion arose
                                  when the wind forecasts from two NWS offices for adjacent forecast
                                  areas were significantly different.

            Recommendation 5:     The NWS needs to move quickly to establish an internal coordination
                                  mechanism.









                                                       xiii









                Finding 6:               Some EMCs are having problems receiving weather information. NWR
                                         coverage is incomplete and NWWS is too costly for some EMCs.
                                         Computer bulletin boards and the Internet received high praise.

                Recommendation 6:        The NWS should continue to seek partnerships to expand NWR
                                         coverage in support of the Gore initiative and target resources to ensure
                                         reliable programming and maintenance of the new systems. The &WS
                                         must actively support implementation of EMWIN and seek additional
                                         partnerships to ensure its availability from multiple sources. EMCs
                                         should be reminded of other resources, such as the free redistribution of
                                         NWWS from their state distribution point and the use of Packet Radio.



                Finding 7a:              A number of offices noted a truncation of some of the more lengthy
                                         Hurricane Local Statements (HLS) on The Weather Channel (TWC).
                                         Moreover, it was also noted that some of the Short Term Forecasts
                                         (NOW) were cut off at six, as opposed to eight lines. This premature
                                         truncation of the HLS and NOW resulted in critical information not
                                         being passed on to the vie w'er.

                Finding 7b               The "segmented" HLS format used by NWSFO San Juan marked an
                                         improvement over their HLSs issued during Hurricane Marilyn.

                Finding 7c:              NWSFO San Juan's NOWs were informative, but some of them tended
                                         toward the radar narrative summary style of writing.


                Recommendation 7:        OM needs to work with TWC to resolve the truncation issue. All offices
                                         should be reminded of the NOW's primary function, to serve as a
                                         forecast of future conditions and impacts rather than a summary of past
                                         events.



                Finding 8:               Potentially valuable meteorological data was lost when the St. Croix and
                                         St. Thomas ASOS units were powered down when the FAA abandoned
                                         their towers.


                Recommendation 8:        NWS and FAA officials should ensure that ASOS units remain in
                                         service during the approach of a tropical cyclone.








                                                                xiv










             Finding 9:               Rip currents associated with Bertha resulted in 3 deaths and over
                                      100 rescues along the Florida and southeast Georgia coasts. Heavy surf
                                      advisories were canceled before two of the deaths occurred. Lack of
                                      data off the southeast Florida coast forced forecasters to estimate wave
                                      heights from local wind forecasts.

             Recommendation 9:        NWSFO Miami must redouble their efforts at seeking partnerships with
                                      Beach Patrol units and other organizations to secure critical wave height
                                      and surf reports.



             Finding 10:              Hurricane specialists were urged to change the location of watches and
                                      warnings. This was exemplified when Bertha's slow northward turn
                                      resulted in Florida State officials requesting NHC to post watches on the
                                      Florida coast when hurricane specialists felt that this was unnecessary.

             Recommendation 10:       NHC needs to remain sensitive to unique and special situations that
                                      occur which emergency managers must resolve during hurricane threats.
                                      State officials have the authority to issue mandatory evacuations for
                                      vulnerable coastal areas even when NHC may feel that meteorological
                                      conditions do not justify issuing hurricane watches or warnings. The
                                      NWS and FEMA need to expand the present hurricane course for
                                      emergency managers and should develop a distance learning approach to
                                      the present NHC resident course. As a part of this course, a module
                                      should be developed for NWS personnel at both the NHC and at local
                                      offices to ensure that they fully appreciate emergency manager
                                      requirements.


             Finding 11:              The NHC was requested to release forecast points early.

             Recommendation 11:       NHC should not release forecast points prior to completion of forecast
                                      coordination. If the meteorology changes significantly and unexpectedly
                                      between the 6 hourly advisory forecasts, then NHC will issue a special
                                      advisory. However, in truly unique circumstances, some coordination on
                                      trends and changes from the previous forecast can be discussed with the
                                      local NWSO and NWSFO so they can brief state or local EMCs prior to
                                      the issuance of the new forecast. There is also a continuing need to
                                      educate emergency managers and other customers about hurricane
                                      forecasts and products and the uncertainties related to these products.





                                                             xv










                 Finding 12:               Hurricane strike probabilities are still not fully understood by state and
                                           local EMCs and are being misrepresented by the media. These
                                           probabilities are especially confusing when a hurricane is paralleling the
                                           coast.


                 Recommendation 12:        The NWS and FEMA should develop new educational materials related
                                           to the use of hurricane strike probabilities as well as the use of forecasts
                                           and forecast uncertainties in the decision-making process. This should
                                           be included in the residence training at NHC as well as in distance
                                           learning modules for emergency managers. These materials should also
                                           be provided to coastal WCMs for outreach efforts to the local media.
                                           Similarly, NHC should investigate better ways of graphically depicting
                                           forecasts and forecast uncertainties.



                 Finding 13:               Many NWS offices par    ticipate in post-storm local-level evaluations and
                                           critiques, usually led by the WCM and/or the MIC.

                 Recommendation 13:        This practice of local self-evaluation should be encouraged at all NWS
                                           offices, coastal or otherwise.



                                                   NCEP Implementation
                                         (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

                 Finding 14:               The Internet has become very popular, and the information available
                                           over the Internet from NHC received very favorable comments.
                                           Naturally, when the hurricane was close to land, access to the NHC
                                           Homepage was difficult.

                 Recommendation 14:        NHC should investigate the possibility of increasing their Internet
                                           capabilities.


                 Finding 15:               The NHC rarely sought input from the SPC nor made attempts to ensure
                                           that the SPC was "on the line" during the hotline coordination. As a
                                           result, field offices that were concerned with the tornado threat were
                                           never sure that the SPC was on the line although the SPC makes it a
                                           practice to monitor the line continuously.

                 Recommendation 15:        The NHC should include the SPC in its roll call list for coordinating
                                           advisories when a tropical cyclone threatens the U.S. mainland. In
                                           addition, the NHC should make it a point to invite comments from the
                                           SPC in such situations.



                                                                   xvi








                                          Regional Implementation

            Finding 16a:            Due to the remoteness of the location, the San Juan WSR-88D RDA
                                    does not utilize commercial power.

            Finding 16b:            The RDA's emergency generator produces an electric current with
                                    irregular frequency fluctuations.

            Recommendation 16:      Officials from the SRH and Puerto Rico emergency management should
                                    encourage the FAA to develop a plan for supplying the WSR-88D with
                                    stable commercial power and with stable, reliable emergency generator
                                    power.



             Finding 17:            The lack of reliable redissernination systems caused some delay in the
                                    receipt of weather products necessary to the emergency management
                                    decision-making process in Delaware. The use of the fax blast was not
                                    always reliable.

            Recommendation 17: ERH should work with FEMA Region 3 and WSH to resolve this issue.
































                                                          xvii







                                                     Chapter 1

                                   Service Assessment Summary


             Operations of the Hurricane Liaison Team

             Traditionally, local emergency managers from Florida, as well as some FEMA regional
             personnel, volunteered to work at NHC to field calls from local emergency managers and to keep
             FEMA national and regional offices apprised of the evolving situation from an emergency
             management perspective. The 1996 hurricane season was the first real effort to formalize the
             ad hoc process and make it more of a functioning unit. This resulted from the highly active
             1995 hurricane season where it became evident that something had to be done to take some of the
             external pressure off of the NHC hurricane specialists. Accordingly, the HLT was formed at the
             request of the State of Florida, FEMA and the NWS. The HLT was first activated during
             Hurricane Bertha. Since this was the first official activation, some of its purpose and function
             were not clearly understood by all of the parties involved. It was expected that the HLT could
             relieve some of the external demands placed on the hurricane specialist. During Bertha, this was
             not the case. In fact, the workload was even greater due to the number of briefings that required
             participation of a specialist. The HLT concept is still under development and its functions and
             operations are being reviewed. A major concern is to ensure that the HLT does not detract from
             local emergency managers contacts with their local NWS offices and WCMs.

             Prior to the start of the 1996 hurricane season, individuals were identified and chosen who had
             the necessary skills and expertise. After working Hurricane Bertha, the team realized that, given
             the extended hours that are required and the possibility of a team member(s) being unavailable, a
             sufficient number of skilled people were not identified to fill these positions.

             In addition to staffing, a unique set of hardware is required to meet the operational requirements
             of the HLT. Since the equipment was not prepositioned and there was no dedicated electronics
             expert assigned to assemble the hardware, some time was lost setting up the equipment.

             The video conferencing between NHC and FEMA Headquarters ensured that FEMA senior
             management and all organizations supporting the Federal Response Plan had the necessary
             information to be proactive, making timely response actions. Video conferences were scheduled
             twice a day for the Director of FEMA and were accomplished with minimal problems.









                State and Local Coordination

                Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina -- Unlike FEMA Headquarters and NHC, most state
                EMCs currently do not have video conference capability but expressed a willingness to add this
                technology. However, due to high costs, video conferencing is not affordable to NWS field
                offices. Most briefings are done via voice only with each state using differing communication
                conferencing systems to speak to the NHC. Some use the National Warning System (NAWAS);
                others, such as Florida, have their own conference systems with a line to NHC. Some of the
                conference calls were done on NAWAS while others were made through existing Federal and
                state teleconference systems but established by government operators. The South Carolina EMC
                missed an NHC briefing since they were not sure whether the call was on NAWAS or some other
                system.

                NHC and the states agreed that a universal conferencing system needs to be established as
                coordination is too difficult with multiple systems. A single system would also help decrease the
                workload for the hurricane specialist as all state EMCs could be conferenced together and briefed
                at once. Local NWS offices stated they were not always tied into conference calls between the
                state EMCs and the NHC.


                During Hurricane Bertha, many of the local EMCs were tied into HLT briefings along with their
                state EMCs. After this briefing, they would then participate in another conference call, involving
                EMCs in the local area, the state EMC and the local NWS. In survey team discussions with local
                emergency managers, they expressed little interest in talking directly with NHC. They would
                rather be tied into a telephone conference call with their surrounding EMCs and local NWS
                office. They assume the state and local NWS offices will talk with the NHC and pass
                information to them during their local conference call.

                In interviewing local emergency managers, the survey team was told NWWS continues to prove
                too expensive for local EMCs with limited funding. The EMWIN was discussed and could prove
                to be a viable alternative for users who currently have no level of support or can afford very little.
                North Carolina officials note that the NWR is still not available in some areas along their
                coastline.


                The use of Internet is increasing and South Carolina and North Carolina are using the Internet as
                one method to access the latest information. However, when Bertha approached the coastline,
                the Internet connection to the NHC was difficult or impossible to get.

                Delaware and Maryland -- NAWAS was used as the primary communication and coordination
                tool by Mt. Holly NWSFO during events of Hurricane Bertha. Delaware Emergency
                Management Agency (DEMA) felt the support provided during Hurricane Bertha did not meet
                the level of support provided prior to the policy change. The use of a single conference call by
                several NWS offices for coordination among multiple states, as well as the loss of access to the



                                                                  2









             26 local municipalities on the DEMA bridge, was a major concern. Subsequent work between
             the OM, ERH and DEMA has found an equitable resolution using the DEMA bridge.

             Delaware does not have an effective mechanism in place for the redistribution of both national
             and local weather information and guidance. This put county and municipal emergency
             managers at a disadvantage as they had no hard copies of NWS watches, warnings and
             statements. This forced coordination calls to be longer as they became a dissemination
             mechanism rather than a coordination tool. Delaware officials also noted several occasions
             where wind forecasts issued for adjacent areas by different NWSFOs were significantly different
             which caused confusion and raised the anxiety of many local emergency managers.


             NWS Operations

             As Hurricane Bertha paralleled the coast, it had the potential to make its initial landfall anywhere
             from Florida to North Carolina. This put extreme pressure on NHC as well as the state EMCs.
             Although NHC's forecast tracks for Bertha proved to be quite accurate, state EMCs urged NHC
             to change the location and timing of watches and warnings and to release the forecast tracks
             early. This caused tension between NHC and their external users. The state EMCs.thought their
             input and concerns were being ignored while NHC felt that they were being second guessed on
             their meteorology.

             While the states agreed NHC is the technical leader and the recognized expert, the EMCs
             continue to emphasize that watches and warnings are not purely a meteorological call but must
             also consider emergency response and public safety. The states agree they have the authority to
             issue mandatory evacuations for vulnerable coastal areas. They said that despite their efforts to
             motivate people, the public will often not respond to recommendations or evacuation information
             unless there is a watch or warning in effect.

             Graphical representation of hurricane strike probabilities can be a useful tool, however, it was
             noticed during Bertha that these graphics were not fully understood by the public or the EMCs.
             In some cases, it lead to misinformation, and in others the media was incorrectly depicting strike
             probabilities. While strike probabilities work well with storms that strike the coast
             perpendicularly, they were confusing when a storm parallels the coast.











                                                              3







                                                     Chapter 2

                                           National Perspectives


             National Hurricane Center

             Synoptic History

             Hurricane Bertha originated from a tropical wave which moved from Africa to the Atlantic on
             July 1, 1996. A weak circulation was first detected on satellite imagery on July 3, centered about
             575 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. The track of the
             circulation center begins on July 5, when the circulation is believed to have reached the surface
             and become a tropical depression in the central tropical Atlantic. This track is displayed in
             Figure I and listed in Appendix B, Table 1.

             Bertha followed a fairly smooth curved path around the western periphery of the Atlantic
             subtropical high pressure ridge. This ridge changed little during Bertha's existence, and a weak
             mid-level trough persisted in the western North Atlantic. For three days, the depression moved
             toward the west-northwest at the fast forward speed of 23 to 29 mph. It strengthened to a
             hurricane with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 86 mph on July 8 as the center moved
             across the Leeward and Virgin Islands of the northeastern Caribbean. The center moved between
             Antigua and Barbuda at 2 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time. (AST) (0600 Coordinated Universal Time
             [UTCI) on July 8, across St. Barthelemy, Anguilla and St. Martin, just north of St. Thomas, and
             over the British Virgin Islands by 2 p.m. AST (1800 UTC).

             The track gradually turned northwestward on July 9 as maximum sustained winds reached
             115 mph at 2 a.m. AST (0600 UTC). Bertha was centered 138 miles north of Puerto Rico at this
             time but earlier passed within 35 miles of the island. Since the strongest winds were located in
             the northeast quadrant of the hurricane, most of Puerto Rico experienced only tropical storm
             conditions. The exception is the Puerto Rican island of Culebra, where hurricane-force winds are
             believed to have occurred.


             Moving northwestward at a slower forward speed of 17 to 23 mph, the center of Bertha moved
             parallel to the Bahama Islands, passing 45 to 70 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands,
             San Salvador, Eleuthera and the Abacos. Again, the strongest winds were located to the
             northeast of the center, but 75-mph sustained winds might have reached some of the above
             mentioned islands.


             Continuing on its gradual turn, the track became north-northwestward on July 10 and I I as the
             center moved parallel to the coast of Florida and Georgia at a distance of 170 to 200 miles


                                                              5












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             offshore. During this time, the forward speed slowed to about 9 mph. Moving northward and re-
             .accelerating to a forward speed of 17 mph, Bertha made landfall at 4 p.m. EDT (2000 UTC) on
             July 12 on the coast of North Carolina. At landfall, Bertha was a Category 2 storrn on the Saffir-
             Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Appendix A) as the center crossed the coast midway between
             Wrightsville and Topsail Beaches. The hurricane had been gradually weakening since its top
             speed of 115 mph on July 9 to 81 mph on July 11. Then, 12 hours before landfall, the estimated
             maximum 1 -minute winds increased to 104 mph. Bertha quickly dropped below hurricane
             strength when it moved inland over eastern North Carolina. Bertha then moved northeastward
             along the U.S. east coast, producing 45 to 60 mph sustained winds over land from northern North
             Carolina to New England. Over the nearby Atlantic, 70 mph winds were the rule. Bertha was
             declared extratropical on July 14 when the center moved from the Maine coast to New
             Brunswick, Canada. The extratropical storm brought 45 to 60 mph winds to the Canadian
             Maritime Provinces and was tracked to just south of Greenland on July 17.


             Meteorological Statistics

             Figures 2 and 3 show a plot, versus time, of the various data used to estimate the minimum
             central sea-level pressure and the maximum 1 -minute wind speed 33 feet above ground.
             Included are data from reconnaissance aircraft and satellite Dvorak-technique wind speed
             estimates. Appendix B, Table 2, lists selected surface observations of lowest pressure, peak
             wind, storm surge and rainfall values. Appendix B, Table 3, lists ship reports of 39 mph or
             greater that were associated with Bertha. The minimum pressure of 960 mb occurred at 2 a.m.
             EDT (0600 UTC) on July 9 and is based on a dropsonde measurement. The best track maximum
             sustained wind speed of 115 mph at the same time is based on a 700-mb flight-level wind speed
             of 140 mph, measured 22 miles east-northeast of the center.

             Observations are incomplete from the Leeward and Virgin Islands, but because the circular
             eyewall was 20 to 35 miles across, it is believed that hurricane conditions with sustained wind
             speeds to 86 mph could have occurred on Antigua, Barbuda, Nevis, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy,
             Anguilla, St. Martin, and from St. Thomas northward through the U.S. and British Virgin
             Islands. Experience with Hurricane Marilyn in 1995 suggests that even higher sustained winds
             can occur over mountainous terrain as is found on many of these islands. Winds 40 to 45 mph
             were experienced over portions of Puerto Rico as indicated by the San Juan observations in
             Appendix B, Table 2.

             A reconnaissance aircraft flight level wind speed of 127 mph in the northeast quadrant of the
             circulation several hours before landfall is the basis for estimating sustained surface winds of
             104 mph on the coast at landfall. The lowest sea-level pressure observed at landfall was 977 mb
             at Surf City, North Carolina, and a value of 974 mb is assumed to be the minimum pressure at
             landfall.






                                                           7









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                                     3     4      5    6      7     9      9          11     L2    13      14
                                                     DATE-TIME CUTC)
                               Figure 2:   Curve of minimum central sea-level pressure versus time.

                             Uft



                                     87/03-07/14/96

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                                     3      4     5     6     7      a     9    is     11    J.2    13     14
                                                     DATE-TIME (UTC). -
                                     Figure 3: Curve of maximum ]-minute speed versus time.
                                                                             1.


























                                                                  8









              Coastal storm surge flood heights, from Florida through New England, ranged from I to 4 feet,
              but values to 5 feet were estimated on the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout.
              A storm surge of 6 feet or a little higher was indicated near Swansboro, where 5 to 6 feet of water
              was "inside of businesses on the waterfront" (from Newport, North Carolina, National Weather
              Service Forecast Office Preliminary Storm Report). Values were forecast to be between 4-6 feet.

              Six tornadoes (four in Virginia, one in North Carolina and one in Maryland) have been
              confirmed during the passage of an outer rain band.


              Casualty and Damage Statistics

              There were 12 deaths related to Hurricane Bertha. Four in Florida included one from an
              evacuating military jet crashing into a house and three drownings from rip currents and high surf.
              Two deaths were reported in North Carolina (automobile accident and rip current drowning),
              while one surfer died in New Jersey. In Puerto Rico, one death occurred in an automobile
              accident and another died while surfing. On the French half of St. Martin, one person was
              electrocuted and another drowned after falling off a boat.

              The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, has been declared a Federal disaster area.
              Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For
              many, it was a second hit in the 10 months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area.

              It is likely that there was beach erosion on the north coast of the Dominican Republic as Bertha
              passed to the north. The Bahamas were also affected by the weak side of the hurricane, but there
              are no damage figures available from either of these locations.

              The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and mostly due to storm surge
              flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops.
              A survey indicated more than 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. FEMA
              estimated 250,000 persons evacuated in South and North Carolina. Minor wind damage and
              flooding also spread along the path of the storm all the way to New England.

              The -Insurance Institute estimates $135 million in insured property damage, primarily along
              coastal North Carolina. A conservative ratio between total damage and insured property damage,
              compared to past land-falling hurricanes, is two to one. This would increase the total U.S.
              damage estimate to $270 million. No figures are available from the Caribbean.


              Warning and Forecast Critique

              Bertha moved on a fairly smooth track. The average official track forecast errors for Bertha
              ranged from 92 miles at 24 hours (32 cases) to 169 miles at 48 hours (29 cases) to 258 miles at


                                                              9









               72 hours (27 cases). These errors are 15 percent or more lower than the previous 10-year
               averages of the official track errors and are from 15 to 40 percent lower than the CLIPER
               forecast errors for the same cases.


               Overall, the track model guidance also performed very well. However, the 8 p.m. EDT (0000
               UTC) Aviation Model run on July 9, when Bertha was located just north of Puerto Rico,
               inexplicably showed the track recurving significantly further east than the previous run. All of
               the track guidance models that use the Aviation Model as a background environment also
               showed a similar track. This resulted in rather large official track forecast errors on July 9, with a
               705-mile, 72-hour error on the 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) forecast. The Aviation Model and some
               of the track guidance models recovered to an excellent forecast only 12 hours later. Fortunately,
               this guidance problem occurred three days prior to landfall in North Carolina and did not have a
               significant impact on U.S. warnings or on warnings for the Bahamas.

               Appendix B, Table 4, lists the various watches and warnings that were issued. Hurricane
               warnings were issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Chincoteague, Virginia, as well as for the
               Bahamas and for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea from Antigua through Puerto
               Rico. Tropical storm warnings were issued from Sebastian Inlet to north of Deerfield Beach,
               Florida, and from north of Chincoteague to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. Almost all of the U.S. east
               coast was involved with some watch or warning which is the result of the storm track's expected
               close passage to the southeast U.S. coast. The hurricane watch for the North Carolina landfall
               area was issued 65 hours before landfall, and the hurricane warning was issued 47 hours before
               landfall. This is far more than the 36- and 24-hour lead times that the NHC strives for and is the
               result of the forward motion decreasing at a faster rate than expected.


               User Response

               For about 2 days, Bertha aimed at the north-central Florida east coast. During that time, all of the
               NWS track guidance models were predicting a turn to the north, near 76 degrees west. This was
               uncomfortably close to some of Florida's barrier islands and Cape Kennedy which have
               evacuation times exceeding 24 hours. At I I p.m. EDT on July 9 and again during the early
               morning hours of July 10, the State of Florida emergency management officials requested that
               NHC post a hurricane watch for the northern parts of their east coast, but NHC hurricane
               specialists felt that this was premature. On July 10, the governor issued mandatory evacuation
               notices at 10 a.m. EDT, and NHC put up hurricane warnings at 11 a.m. EDT for the state, north
               of Sebastian Inlet. Early that afternoon, Bertha began its recurvature toward the north in close
               agreement with the guidance models.

               Similarly, South Carolina state officials became concerned about possible nighttime evacuations
               on the evening of July 10 and were in great need of the latest information prior to the I I p.m.
               coordination call. The governor wanted to make a decision whether or not to order mandatory
               evacuations before the 11 p.m. news. Working and coordinating closely with NWSFO


                                                               10










            Columbia, NHC was called at 7:30 p.m. EDT on July 10, requesting additional forecast track
            information. This request was received more than an hour before the hurricane specialist was to
            begin preparing the next forecast. The hurricane specialist and the HLT provided intermediate
            information on Bertha's location and strength, however, NHC could not release any track and
            intensity forecasts until the next NWS hurricane hotline call at 10 p.m. EDT, at which time the
            track and intensity forecasts would be coordinated and agreed upon. The HLT believed they kept
            state officials well informed regarding Bertha from an emergency management perspective.


            Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

            Meteorology of Heavy Rainfall

            Hurricane Bertha made landfall on the North Carolina coast on July 12 and was downgraded to a
            tropical storm shortly thereafter. The storm accelerated north-northeastward across coastal
            sections of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast United States prior to moving off the eastern New
            England coast late on July 13. Precipitable water values increased significantly to values in
            excess of 2 inches along the Eastern Seaboard as deep layered easterly flow developing in
            advance of the storm advected tropical moisture inland. Heavy rain occurred from the eastern
            Carolinas to Maine with many locations receiving 2- to 4-inch amounts (see Figure 4). Coastal
            North Carolina and southeast New York had isolated reports of over a half foot of rain. Amounts
            could have been much greater had Bertha's rapid motion not acted to limit rainfall duration.



            Guidance Products


            Primary guidance that aided HPC forecasters included varied output from numerical models
            (Geophysical Fluids Dynamical Lab [GFDL] model, Aviation Model [AVN], ETA Model
            [ETA], Nested Grid Model [NGM], Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
            [NOGAPS], Medium-range Forecast Model [MRF], the MRF ensemble package, Medium-range
            Forecast Model Experimental [MRFX], European Center for Medium Range Weather
            Forecasting [ECMWF], United Kingdom Meteorological Office [UKMET], meso-ETA, NHC
            hurricane models, etc.), satellite imagery (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
            [GOES]-8/9 Visible [VIS], Infrared [IR], Water vapor [WV], and Special Sensor Microwave
            Imagery [SSMI] microwave data), NEXRAD data, surface and upper-air observations and
            aircraft reconnaissance data.


            Model output was varied. While all models correctly indicated the potential for heavy rainfall
            over the eastern United States, the AVN forecast a Bertha track and associated quantitative
            precipitation forecast (QPF) that was shifted farther to the west than the ETA or NGM. The
            AVN track implied that a significant upslope rain event was imminent in the favored upslope
            region on the eastern side of Appalachian Mountains. The ETA and NGM supported a heavy
            rainfall event farther to the east. Weather pattern recognition and upper-air data analysis









               combined with trends from satellite imagery and radar to prompt HPC forecasters to prefer a
               solution close to but wetter than that depicted by the ETA. Subsequent observations deemed that
               our model assessments were on the right track.

               HPC staff produced an array of graphic products and accompanying narratives.      These products
               provided an assessment of guidance and an excellent forecast of quantitative precipitation, flash
               flood potential and the sea level pressure pattern from current conditions up to five days
               (see Figures 5-7).



               Internal Coordination


               HPC forecasters participated in at least four regularly scheduled hurricane coordination calls each
               day that included verbal input from NHC, SPC, MPC, WFO's, WSH, SRH, ERH, Naval Atlantic
               Meteorology and Oceanography Center at Norfolk, Virginia, and the Naval Meteorology and
               Oceanography Facility at Jacksonville, Florida. Information discussed included Bertha's forecast
               strength and track from zero to five days and associated QPFs. Routine coordination calls were
               also performed with.FEMA.


               Marine Prediction Center


               Marine Meteorology

               As Bertha moved along the east coast recurving across the Maritimes and then well out to sea, it
               created significant marine meteorological conditions for an extensive segment of the MPC High
               Seas area of responsibility. The most notable conditions are chronicled below.

               0   As Bertha passed near the Bahamas on July 10 at 8 a.m. AST (1200 UTC), well before the
                   center entered MPC's area, 13-foot southerly swells had propagated as far north as 34N west
                   of 69W.


               E   On July I I at 8 a.m. AST (1200 UTC), while hurricane and tropical storm force winds
                   remained south of 32N, the southern limit of the MPC forecast area, seas increased to 20 feet
                   over the area south of 34N west of 70W. Near gale force winds extended out to 520 miles
                   over the north semicircle.


                   By July 12 at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Bertha had crossed 32N, approaching the
                   coast of the Carolinas. Packing maximum sustained winds of 104 mph, the storm generated a
                   maximum wave height estimated at 39 feet just south of Frying Pan Shoals.

                   On July 13, Bertha moved inland across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia,
                   weakening to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 52 mph and gusts to 63 mph at 8 a.m.
                   EDT (1200 UTC). Winds near tropical storm force and 13-foot seas also occurred within 485
                   miles from the center.



                                                                12







             TOTAL PRECIPITATION (inches)
                             and
              PATH OF HURRICANE BERTHA                                2
                       July 12 - 13, 1996


                                                             T.           4
















                                                        4
















                                      2
                                                   4


                                          41           CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
                                        2                         and
                                                      NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER






                                           Figure 4

                                              13








                                          25
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                        50

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                                         50

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                             41. SUN 14 J  9 9 L-  FCST
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                                      j









              ï¿½   By July 14 at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), Bertha had lost most of its tropical characteristics and
                  was declared extratropical, becoming the sole responsibility of the MPC. Located along the
                  New Brunswick coast, storm force winds to 63 mph and seas to 20 feet occurred within 495
                  miles over the southeast semicircle. Gale force winds and seas to 16 feet extended out to 620
                  miles over the southeast semicircle and 345 miles over the northwest semicircle.


              ï¿½   On July 15 at 8 p.m. EDT (0000 UTC), former Bertha was downgraded from an extratropical
                  storm to a gale, still packing winds to 52 mph with seas to 18 feet southeast of the center.

              ï¿½   As the low mov  *ed northeast across the open ocean, gale warnings were continued until
                  July 17 at 2 a.m. EDT (0600 UTC). Through its final weakening stages as a gale from
                  Newfoundland to just south of Cape Farewell, an extensive area of 13- to 21 -foot seas
                  continued east and south of the center.



              Forecast and Guidance Products


              MPC forecast and analysis products are routinely broadcast to ships at sea. This is done through
              the U.S. Coast Guard high frequency communication facilities. The products consist of high seas
              text bulletins and graphic surface analysis and forecast products. In addition, voice broadcasts of
              warnings and forecasts which originate at the MPC are broadcast over station WWV, Boulder,
              Colorado. Although all of these products are produced according to a regular schedule, they all
              contain warning and forecast information as provided in the official TPC bulletin.

              The frequency of transmission for these products is every 6 hours and is based on the synoptic
              reporting times (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC).



              Coordination


              Coordination took place using the Hurricane Hotline or through telephone calls. TPC's
              conference calls were routinely monitored and telephone calls to TPC's Tropical Analysis and
              Forecast Branch were made for purposes of coordination. In anticipation of the system becoming
              extratropical and to cover expected conditions in offshore waters, MPC provided input for
              adjustments of TPC's tropical force wind/12-foot seas radius as the storm crossed north of 32N
              prior to making landfall along the southern North Carolina coast. The input was accepted and
              incorporated into the advisory.









                                                               15









               Storm Prediction Center


               Forecast and Guidance Products


               Tornado watches associated with Bertha (see Appendix D).

               Tornado Watch            issue (CDT)            valid          end
                 764                    12/9:37 a.m.           10:00 a.m.     7:00 p.m.
                 765                    12/1:36 p.m.           2:00 p.m.      7:00 p.m.
                 768                    12/6:16 p.m.           7:00 p.m.      4:00 a.m.
                 770                    12/11:41 p.m.          midnight       7:00 a.m.
                 771                    13/3:00 a.m.           3:15 a.m.      10:00 a.m. (replaced 768 and 770)
                 772                    13/12:20 p.m.          12:45 p.m.     7:00 p.m.


               Mesoscale Meteorology and Coordination

               The SPC participated in all hurricane hotline discussions concerning Bertha during its lifetime,
               however, this was due to the fact that SPC forecasters were monitoring the hotline. NHC failed
               to roll call the SPC nor did it invite input from the SPC. NHC should include the SPC in its roll
               call list for coordinating advisories when a tropical cyclone threatens the U.S. mainland. During
               the 10 a.m. EDT coordination on July 12, the SPC forecaster commented that the tornado threat
               for the east coast was increasing and that he should probably issue a tornado watch (the first in a
               series). The hurricane specialist suggested that the SPC handle the details off-line with the
               individuals involved, and that he would mention -the possibility of tornadoes in the next bulletin.
               After the hotline call ended, the SPC forecaster called the offices in Raleigh, North Carolina, and
               Columbia, South Carolina, to coordinate the tornado watch (No. 764) which extended from
               northeastern South Carolina into southeastern and east-central North Carolina.


               During the course of the morning and early afternoon, several tornado warnings were issued in
               North Carolina with some occurring near the western and northern boundaries of the watch.
               Damage was reported with a thunderstorm near Raleigh. Since there was a strong surface high to
               the north (1026 mb center), the resulting pressure gradient was producing relatively strong low
               level flow (and shear) well to the north of the tropical storm center. Further, instability along and
               east of a surface trough extending from eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia had
               reached moderate values. These factors raised the concern that the tornado threat would be
               developing northward along and east of the trough line during the afternoon hours and that a
               watch would be needed northward from the original watch into southeastern Virginia. To make
               it simpler for the NWSFOs and NWSOs, the ending time 8 p.m. EDT (0000 UTC) was chosen to
               be the same as that with the original watch. The SPC forecaster called NWSFOs Raleigh, North
               Carolina, and Sterling, Virginia, to propose the new watch (No. 765). SPC mentioned that there
               was rotation with a cell on the Virginia/North Carolina border and that NWSO Wakefield,
               Virginia, had issued a tornado warning as a result. All agreed to the watch although Sterling was

                                                                 16









              a little hesitant. On several occasions, the SPC noted that it is apparent that during hazardous
              weather events when staffs at local offices are busiest, it can be difficult for them to stay abreast
              of evolving and immediate post-weather events in nearby NWSFOs/NWSOs areas of
              responsibility. Later in the evening, tornado watch Nos. 768 and 770 were issued as the tropical
              system tracked north.

              By early Saturday morning, July 13, the main east-west "spiral band" of isolated supercells which
              was over northern Virginia continued northward and had reached a northern Maryland/southern
              New Jersey line by around daybreak. Two rotating storms on the far western end of this activity
              were edging dangerously close to the western edge of the previous weather watch and nearing the
              eastern suburbs of Washington, D.C. Therefore, upon consultation with NWSFOs Sterling,
              Virginia; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and New York City, New York, the SPC forecaster decided
              to issue a new watch (No. 77 1) which covered a bit more of the "western shore" region of the
              Chesapeake Bay. Shortly after the watch was issued, a new thunderstorm began to rotate along
              the same spiral band which had produced the rotating storms east of Washington. This latter cell
              moved right across Baltimore and prompted a tornado warning from Sterling, but no tornadoes
              were reported.

              During the coordination call for Tornado Watch No. 77 1, NWSFO Philadelphia had no trouble
              accepting the watch as there had already been isolated rotating storms over Delaware Bay earlier.
              These storrns were well in advance of the Virginia/Maryland spiral band. On the other hand,
              NWSFO New York City really didn't want the watch (No. 77 1), but they were unaware of the
              fact that isolated supercells had been occurring as close to them as Delaware Bay earlier. There
              was good agreement with NWSFO Boston, Massachusetts, to the effect that any tornado threat in
              New England would be delayed for a while due to the presence of cooler/drier air near the
              surface (dew points were in the 60s vs. low to mid 70s in Maryland). As has been pointed out in
              several instances, the long standing procedures of watch coordination with field offices were, in
              general, effective. The coordination process provided the field with opportunities to contribute
              and, in most cases, coming to a consensus was not a problem. The SPC also noted the ability to
              dial into the WSR-88Ds that were being affected proved to be a valuable tool in assessing the
              tornado threat from Bertha.




















                                                               17







                                                       Chapter 3

                                            Regional Perspectives


               Southern Region

               0 Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

               Data Collection


               WSR-88D


               Performance of the San Juan WSR-88D, an FAA radar, was acceptable as Bertha moved across
               the Virgin Islands and north of Puerto Rico. However, as of Saturday, July 6, the radar was
               inoperative with no apparent plans to return it to service. Representatives from SRH, WSH,
               Office of Systems Operation, and the Operational Support Facility spent several hours during the
               evening of July 6 coordinating and attempting to isolate the problem. On the morning of July 7,
               the FAA electronics technician (ET) had identified the problem as irregular fluctuations in the
               frequency of the generator used to power the RDA. Due to the remoteness of the site, the RDA
               does not have commercial power. The permanent fix to the generator's problem was to install an
               electronic governor on the generator, but this could not be done before Bertha's arrival. The
               FAA ET would attempt to temporarily stabilize the signal on a short-term basis but could not
               promise any definite success. The efforts were in fact successful as the WSR-88D remained
               operational for the duration of the event. Once the scope of the WSR-88D problem was made
               known to the appropriate FAA representatives, they were cooperative and restored the radar to
               service as quickly as possible.

               Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)

               The ASOS units on St. Thomas and St. Croix functioned normally until Monday, July 8. On the
               morning of July 8, the control towers at both islands' airports were abandoned. FAA personnel
               have instructions to power down all equipment, including ASOS, when the towers are
               abandoned. Thus, no ASOS data were available as the storm impacted the islands, and no
               official wind or pressure data were available in real-time or after the event. The ASOS at San
               Juan remained operational, recording a maximum wind gust of 60 mph and a minimum pressure
               of 996.8 mb.








                                                                19








               Warning and Forecast Services

               NWSFO San Juan began issuing HLSs at 11:20 p.m. AST, Saturday, July 6. The HLSs were
               issued at 6 hourly intervals through 5 p.m. on July 7, at which time they switched to 3 hourly
               statements. The statements contained a great deal of information presented in a segmented forrn
               as recommended by the Hurricane Marilyn Disaster Survey Report. Separate sections of the
               HLS were used to describe preparedness actions, the storm's position, storm surge, etc. This
               enabled customers to quickly find information regarding a particular aspect of the storm's threat.
               As Bertha approached and moved by Puerto Rico, HLSs were composed and disseminated every
               2 hours. These HLSs were a marked improvement over those issued for Hurricane Marilyn,

               NOWs were prepared by NWSFO San Juan throughout the event. The NWSFO staff utilized
               information primarily from the WSR-88D when composing their NOWs. While the NOWs were
               informative, some of them were written in a style similar to the radar narrative summary (i.e., "At
               xxx pm ... radar indicated the center of Bertha..."). This had the effect of dating the products and
               focusing customers' attention to the storm's history rather than its forecast track and impacts.



               Dissemination and Coordination


               NWSFO San Juan communicated information regarding Bertha in a variety of ways. The
               primary d issernination means were NWR and NWWS. Local EMCs and media took an active
               role in relaying information to the citizens, using methods ranging from facsimile transmissions
               to live television and radio broadcasts.


               On St. Thomas, NWR broadcasts are provided through a service contract with radio station
               WAH. Normally, WAH provides NWR service between 6 a.m. AST and midnight. However,
               with the approach of Bertha, WAH conducted 24-hour operations from one day before the
               storm's arrival to two days after Bertha's impact. The St. Thomas office of the Virgin Islands
               Territory Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA) has the "state" NWWS drop provided by
               the NWS. The system was operational until mid-afternoon Monday, July 8, when power was lost
               to the VITEMA facility. The VITEMA-St. Thomas office was in frequent contact with NWSFO
               San Juan, as coordination calls were held at least five times daily starting on Friday, July 5.

               On St. Croix, VITEMA officials were still not receiving all NWWS products from the drop on
               St. Thomas. However, the St. Croix staff obtained the necessary information via coordination
               calls with the NWSFO San Juan, the Internet, The Weather Channel, and the VIFreenet. The
               VIFreenet is a free Internet-based service for Virgin Islands citizens. The service is maintained
               by private sources. VITEMA-St. Croix staff also gathered weather information from the FEMA
               Region I HF radio network. Although some problems were encountered with the NWWS, the
               VITEMA-St. Croix staff utilized multiple dissemination methods to receive information
               regarding Bertha.



                                                                 20









             Preparedness

             As in previous -years, the staff at NWSFO San Juan conducted an aggressive hurricane
             preparedness campaign. From October 1995 through June 1996, the office participated in
             48 conferences, workshops, seminars, presentations and interviews related to hurricane
             preparedness. Among these activities was a 2-day workshop, conducted in cooperation with
             TPC/NHC, for VITEMA officials. The office also conducted an in-house hurricane seminar
             which was also attended by two members of the VITEMA-St. Croix staff. NWSFO continues
             their noteworthy preparedness efforts.


             Customer Response

             The local media was proactive, especially the print media outlets. The St. Croix Avis, the local
             newspaper on the island, covered Bertha as their headline story beginning on Saturday, July 6.
             NWS Public Information Statements documenting preparedness activities were printed in the
             Sunday and Monday (July 7 and 8) editions. VITEMA officials on both St. Thomas and St.
             Croix were satisfied with the infon-nation they received during the event, including the forecast
             track and intensity. Although Bertha was a fast-moving storm as it approached the islands,
             VITEMA staff and citizens felt they had ample time to prepare. Thus, the VITEMA staff
             believed that they received better services than during Hurricane Marilyn in 1995.


                Florida and Georgia

             Data Collection


             All of the data collection equipment in place along the Florida and Georgia coasts was
             operational during the event. The WSR-881), ASOS, upper air equipment, and data buoys
             performed well throughout Bertha's trip up the east coast.

             However, NWSFO Miami, Florida, noted a problem with a lack of data off the southeast Florida
             coast. Without the data, no wave information is available south of Melbourne, Florida. Wave
             heights can be estimated from local wind forecasts, but no observations of swells are routinely
             available and no "ground truth" wind/wave data can be accessed by forecasters. The NWSFO
             Miami WCM has talked to the Beach Patrol units in southeast Florida, asking them to call in
             rough surf reports to the office. This practice is not consistently done.


             Warning and Forecast Services

             All coastal offices issued frequent HLSs for their areas of responsibility. The HLSs roughly
             coincided with the release of advisory packages or intermediate advisories from TPC/NHC.

                                                           21









               Because Bertha remained well away from the coastline, none of the Florida coastal offices
               needed to document the storm's progress in short term forecasts (NOW).

               During the evening of July 9, Bertha approached southeast Florida and TPC/NHC issued the
               Tropical Storm Warning from Deerfield Beach, Florida, northward. This was upgraded to a
               Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet northward during the morning of July 10. NWSFO
               Miami, NWSO Melbourne, and NWSO Jacksonville, Florida, began issuing HLSs at around
               midnight on July 10. The HLSs were issued about every 3 hours until the warnings were
               discontinued (5 p.m. EDT on July 10 for Miami, 5 a.m. on July 11 for Melbourne, and 5 a.m. on
               July 12 for Jacksonville). Overall, the offices' HLSs were detailed and accurate. In cases where
               the HLSs were lengthy, a segmented approach was used. As at NWSFO San Juan, the Florida
               offices' segmented HLSs contained separate paragraphs discussing topics such as the storm
               itself, evacuation instructions, and tide information. It should be noted that all of Florida's
               coastal NWS offices issued timely and informative HLSs as Bertha passed offshore.

               In addition to the HLSs, NWSFO Miami issued heavy surf advisories and statements advising of
               rough surf conditions and potential strong rip currents through July 12. Unfortunately, one death
               occurred on July 10 due to a rip current off Jacksonville Beach. Later in the week, due to the
               lack of wave/swell data from off the southeast coast, the heavy surf advisory was prematurely
               canceled. Two more people were drowned and more than 100 were rescued along Dade County
               beaches on July 12 and 13 due to rip currents caused by swells from Bertha. The NWSFO
               Miami also issued a wind advisory on the morning of July 10 for inland portions of central and
               southern Florida with winds forecast to 35 mph. The wind advisory was extended to portions of
               north-central Florida during the late morning of July 10.


               Internal and External Coordination


               Although Bertha's meteorological impacts on the Florida and southeast Georgia coasts were
               minimal in the form of heavy surf and minor beach erosion, the storm was the subject of tense
               coordination between NHC and the State of Florida EMC. Because the NHC forecasters felt that
               the storm would turn to the north and eventually to the northeast, no watches or warnings were
               originally issued for the coast. By Tuesday, July 9, the storm still had not made an appreciable
               turn to the north. During a coordination with the state EMC on the evening of July 9, the state
               EMC virtually insisted that a watch or warning be issued so that their coastal county EMCs could
               initiate their hurricane plans. The storm still had not made an appreciable turn by the morning of
               July 10. During the 10 a.m. EDT conference call between NHC and the local offices, it was
               agreed that an upgrade to a hurricane warning was the best course of action. Bertha finally
               slowed and started to turn north by the afternoon of July 10, but the warnings were left up for
               precautionary reasons. In retrospect, the NHC official forecasts were accurate in depicting
               Bertha's decrease in forward speed and turn to the north. Although the turn did occur, the
               uncertainty involved with the forecast made coordination with the State of Florida EMC difficult.



                                                               22









            The local offices along the coast were active in coordinating with their local emergency
            management officials. Staffs at the offices were involved with both the NHC coordination calls
            and the State of Florida conference calls as well. Offices utilized telephone and amateur radio
            communication when needed to elaborate on the information contained in HLSs.



            Customer Response

            Despite the coordination issues which occurred during Bertha's approach, local customers were
            satisfied in general with the services they received. The Palm Beach County EMC was
            supportive of the NWS warnings and forecasts and expressed displeasure only at the tenseness of
            the coordination between NHC and the state EMC. The Broward County EMC was concerned
            about the breakpoint chosen for the tropical storm warning (north of Deerfield Beach) since
            Deerfield Beach is in Broward County but the warning was for the area north of Broward
            County.

            Along the central Florida coast, there was some second-guessing of the warnings and
            evacuations. These concerns were especially evident in the local print media. However, the
            majority of the customers in the area felt that the actions taken were prudent considering the
            history and past track of the storm. The NWSO Melbourne WCM has engaged in ongoing
            meetings with local emergency managers to evaluate the communication and coordination issues.

            In northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, customers were satisfied as well with the services
            from NWSO Jacksonville, Florida. The regional media were centrally located in the Duval
            County EMC. On the afternoon of July 10, the NWSO Jacksonville MIC relocated to the Duval
            County, Florida, EMC to field media inquiries and to enhance coordination with Duval County
            and other local emergency management officials. Community response in the coastal areas was
            immediate upon issuance of the hurricane warning. NWSO Jacksonville received a letter of
            appreciation from the Camden County, Georgia, EMC, and several other local agencies gave
            verbal compliments to the office. As in east-central Florida, the NWSO Jacksonville WCM and
            SOO have engaged in frequent evaluation meetings with local customers.


            Eastern Region

            Impacts

            Hurricane Bertha was an unusual early season Category 2 hurricane which made landfall near
            Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Bertha was the first significant hurricane to directly affect
            the state between Wilmington and Morehead City since Hurricane Donna in 1960.

            The American Insurance Association estimates that $135 million of insured property losses
            occurred during Bertha with $ 100 million having occurred in North Carolina, $25 million in

                                                          23









                Virginia, and $10 million in South Carolina. Claims represent insured losses resulting from
                factors other than tidal inundation (i.e., mostly wind).

                The hardest hit area was just to the east of the eye at landfall ... Topsail Beach and Swansboro,
                North Carolina. Water was 5 to 6 feet deep in waterfront businesses in Swansboro. Highest
                wind gusts reported on land were 108 mph at Camp Lejeune and Jacksonville and 95 mph at
                Wrightsville Beach (all in North Carolina). Wind gusts of 80 mph were observed at NWSO
                Newport, North Carolina. In Wilmington, North Carolina, just to the west of the eye, winds
                gusted to 70 mph. Over water, the Frying Pan Shoals C-Man tower, 35 miles off the North
                Carolina coast, registered a gust to 115 mph. NWSO Wilmington, North Carolina, recorded
                5.66 inches of rain during Bertha's passage.

                In North Carolina, moderate to severe amounts of beach erosion occurred in areas of Bertha's
                greatest impact. Mason Inlet lost 50 feet of land, leaving the inlet that much closer to Shell
                Island Resort. At Emerald Isle, the dunes dropped vertically 8 to 10 feet at the erosion line. At
                Kure Beach, there was 4 feet of vertical erosion against the boardwalk, leaving the strand
                narrower by 40 feet. On the Outer Banks, more than 150,000 people (mostly tourists) evacuated,
                back to the mainland. Further south, well over 100,000 people evacuated to the west of 1-95 and
                out of harms way.

                Outside the areas of greatest impact, Bertha's effects were much less dramatic. In South
                Carolina, the highest measured wind was at the downtown Charleston Handar with a peak gust of
                58 mph. Higher peak gusts likely occurred along the barrier island beachfronts. No significant
                beach erosion occurred as the maximum tide departure occurred near the time of low tide.
                Rainfall was generally between I and 2 inches. Widespread power outages occurred over North
                Carolina with as many as 250,000 customers without power in the eastern portions of the state.
                About 80,000 people were evacuated in South Carolina and 20,000 in Georgia. Revenue losses
                due to evacuations of tourists and residents were estimated to be about $40 million. One person
                drowned off Myrtle Beach in advance of the storm while attempting to, surf the large waves and
                swells.


                In Virginia, four tornadic storms associated with Bertha resulted in much of the damage across
                eastern portions of the state. The strongest tornado struck Northumberland County, Virginia, and
                resulted in nine injuries. Rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 6 inches on the Virginia Capes and the
                lower Maryland shore to 2 to 4 inches over inland sections of Virginia east of Interstate 95.
                Mostly minor to locally moderate tidal flooding and beach erosion occurred. Extensive power
                outages occurred over eastern Virginia, with as many as 115,000 customers without power in the
                eastern sections of the state. In the NWSO Wakefield, Virginia, county warning area (CWA),
                nearly 1,800 people were evacuated.

                Inland portions of Delaware and Maryland experienced heavy rain and      'gusty winds from what
                was now Tropical Storm Bertha although the most significant impact was from several weak
                tornadoes. There was some attendant wind damage associated with the stronger thunderstorms in


                                                                  24









             Bertha's rain bands. The Patuxent River, Maryland, Naval Air Station recorded a gust of 48 mph
             and 4.03 inches of rain. Rainfall totals ranged ftom 4 to 4.5 inches along the western shore of the
             Chesapeake Bay and I to 2.5 inches across metropolitan Washington, D.C. In Bertha's
             aftermath, about 2,000 homes were without power in northern Virginia, 5,000 around the District
             of Columbia and surrounding Maryland suburbs, and 10,000 in and around Baltimore.

             In New Jersey, the most significant impact from Bertha was the heavy rain with 2- to 4-inch
             storm totals common in coastal sections, with a few isolated reports greater than 6 inches. One
             such report was 6.69 inches in Estelle Manor, New Jersey. Generally, coastal and flash flooding
             were not a problem although moderate wave action was responsible for one surfing fatality.
             Harvey Cedars, New Jersey, reported a 63-mph gust with some downed trees and resultant power
             outages which were a consequence of the area's experiencing strong gusty winds and saturated
             soils.


             On Long Island, winds gusted to 64 mph on Babylon Village, New York. Rainfall totals were as
             high as 4.65 inches at Pomona in Rockland County, New York. In New York City and Long
             Island, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.76 inches in Quogue to 2.49 inches at Mt. Sinai (both on
             Long Island). Mostly minor to locally moderate beach erosion occurred.

             In southern New England, most of Bertha's adverse effects were minimal and resulted in only
             minor coastal flooding. One strong band of convection, however, resulted in strong winds and
             numerous power outages across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. The highest reported
             gust was 87 mph in New Bedford, Massachusetts. The maximum reported rainfall was
             7.20 inches at Billerica, Massachusetts. Rainfall totals exceeded 5 inches at several locations in
             northern Rhode Island, northeast Connecticut and interior parts of eastern Massachusetts.

             The remainder of New England essentially had to deal with the locally heavy rains associated
             with Bertha's remnants. Total rainfall across the area was generally in the 2- to 4-inch range with
             lower amounts in northern Maine and northern New Hampshire. There were several reports of
             water over the roads in the areas covered by flood warnings, but no significant problems or
             damage was reported. (See Appendix E for the Aerial Survey.)


             Warning and Forecast Services

             Timely hurricane watches and warnings were posted commensurate with the threat posed by
             Bertha. However, intensity forecasts prior to landfall in North Carolina were not on target.
             Information from NHC indicated that Hurricane Bertha had weakened as she approached the
             North Carolina coast. The hurricane had been gradually weakening since its top speed of
             115 mph on July 9 to 81 mph on July 11. Then 12 hours before landfall, the estimated maximum
             1 -minute winds increased to 104 mph. Information relayed to eastern North Carolina emergency
             managers mirrored information received from the NHC. Forecast wind speeds, especially inland,
             were too low.



                                                           25









              Forecasts of sound-side flooding of the Outer Banks were based on a numerical model developed
              at North Carolina State University. The forecast based on the late afternoon advisory on July I I
              called for a 6- to 8-foot surge. This forecast did not take into account decreasing wind speeds as
              Bertha moved north through eastern North Carolina. As a result, the surge forecast was too high.
              Actual surges were on the order of I to 2 feet. South of this area from Cape Lookout to Cape
              Fear, the storm surge was between 5 and 6 feet and was forecast to be between 4 and 6 feet.

              Some lower Maryland Eastern Shore emergency managers expressed concern with the lack of a
              Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch north of the Hurricane Warning area. It was their feeling
              that a Watch would have afforded them the freedom to take action commensurate with the level
              of threat they perceived existed.

              Further north, local NWSFO and NWSO products were excellent and accurately depicted the
              hazards posed by the now weakening tropical storm. Early on in the event, there was some initial
              forecast disagreement across southern New Hampshire. This was subsequently resolved by a
              joint telephone call with the New Hampshire Office of Emergency Management by staffs at
              NWSFOs at Taunton, Massachusetts, and Gray, Maine. Generally, the accurate and timely NWS
              warnings and forecasts allowed customers both on land and water to adequately prepare for
              Bertha.



              Internal and External Coordination


              Internal NWS and external coordination during Bertha's passage through Eastern Region went
              well in most instances. Timely notification to Federal, state, county and local agencies were
              initiated by local NWS offices well in advance of the official watches and warnings. This
              ensured that users were well-prepared days in advance of the hurricane's impact.

              External coordination was accomplished primarily via telephone. Some users in the heart of
              Bertha's path obtained information through a bulletin board system at NWSO Newport, North
              Carolina. The primary backup system at the NWSO, amateur radio operators, was used to gather
              information but was not needed for coordination purposes since the telephone system did not fail.

              Internal NW`9 coordination was accomplished primarily via telephone, the hurricane hotline, and
              AFOS.


              Some user complaints were also received regarding the utility of the inland winds model. As
              noted earlier, this largely resulted from the forecast of strong inland winds in the NHC marine
              advisory not reflecting observed conditions.

              In northeast North Carolina, the hurricane revealed some coordination problems with regard to
              the timely dissemination of important weather information between NWSO Wakefield, Virginia,
              and the emergency managers of the coastal counties within Wakefield's CWA. The MIC and


                                                            26









             SOO met with the emergency managers and resolved these issues. Additionally, emergency
             management officials stated they continue to have tight budgets and cannot afford NWWS.
             EMWIN was emphasized while the use of Internet and the bulletin board service was mentioned.

             In North Carolina, some problems were noted regarding NHC initiated calls to the EMC. When
             a hurricane warning is posted for the North Carolina coast, the NWSFO Raleigh MIC and WCM
             brief the state EMC in person when each new advisory is issued. State emergency management
             officials also call the NWSFO as appropriate, between visits by the MIC or WCM, to get
             intermediate updates on the hurricane's progress. NHC briefing calls frequently came at times
             when state officials were already in the midst of a briefing by the NWSFO or with local
             emergency management officials along the coast.

             At a number of NWS offices, HAM radio SKYWARN volunteers received and passed along
             information. In at least one instance (NWSO Wilmington, North Carolina), Packet Radio was
             their primary communication device. Local emergency management officials with Packet Radio
             often received the hurricane advisories and local office statements more than a half hour before
             they were received by other means. Additionally, the Packet Radio also provided them with
             Doppler (WSR-88D) radar images from the radar coded message product.



             Data Collection and Communication


             The coastal portion of the NWSO Morehead City, North Carolina, CWA is covered with data
             collection devices ranging from ASOS sites, Datalogger, and DARDC wind equipment. Most
             units failed once power was lost. Amateur radio operators were used to gather information
             throughout the storm and proved to be NWSO Morehead City's most reliable data-gathering
             source. Generally, though, the sparsity of land and over water.real-time observations proved
             once again to be an obstacle as Bertha slammed onshore and traversed through eastern North
             Carolina.


             Local NWS office work on fine-tuning the WSR-89D rainfall estimates continued during Bertha.
             With the passage of each tropical system through the region, more radar data are helping local
             offices to fine tune the most accurate reflectivity (Z-R) relationship to utilize. This will aid
             NWSFO/NWSO assessments of the (rainfall) flooding potential during future tropical system
             passages.


             WSR-88D level H, Ell, and IV data were archived by NWS offices in Bertha's path.
             Unfortunately, the archive level II data at NWSO Morehead City was inoperative throughout the
             event. In addition, many NWSFOs and NWSOs archived upper level plots, surface observations
             and model gridded data during the hurricane.

             In North Carolina, the New Bern and Cape Hatteras NWR failed for a time as the hurricane was
             reaching peak strength. This is a problem which the Region is attempting to minimize for future


                                                             27









               hurricanes and other severe weather episodes through the use of NWS-owned and operated
               uninterruptible power supply and back-up generator equipment at NWR transmitter locations.

               A number of offices noted a truncation of some of the more lengthy HLS on TWC. Moreover, it
               was also noted that some of the NOWs were cut off at six, as opposed to eight lines. Obviously,
               this premature truncation of the HLS and NOW will result in need-to-know information not
               being passed on to the viewer and as such needs to be resolved with TWC.

               A telephone company problem led to the NWR's Blue Hill transmitter, which serves the Greater
               Boston area, being off the air for several hours during the height of the storm. Additionally, the
               Providence ASOS temperature and dew point sensor went out of service during Bertha's passage
               through the area.


               User Response

               User response was quite good. The successful evacuations and low casualty rates reflect the
               growing sophistication and team efforts of the NWS and the emergency management community
               although a number of false perceptions as pertains to (he hurricane's perceived threat linger.

               Emergency management personnel in North Carolina are well trained and made the appropriate
               evacuation decisions. All used either the "HurrTrak" or "Hurrevac" computer software to aid in
               their decision-making process. Conference calls that included all emergency managers as well as
               NWSO Morehead City and NWSO Wakefield personnel were initiated by the North Carolina
               Area A Coordinator (includes northeastern North Carolina counties). Occasional conference
               calls were initiated by the Area C Coordinator (central and southeastern North Carolina
               counties).

               The media and public responded quite well. Most tourists evacuated when ordered, however, the
               majority of the year-round residents remained on the North Carolina barrier islands.

               Further north, the states of Maryland and Virginia were contacted after the event to assess their
               reaction. Feedback from the state level was strongly positive. Some concern was expressed by
               one emergency manager on the Maryland Eastern Shore, regarding the NWS use of one of the
               hurricane break points during the event.

               Just to the south of Bertha's greatest impact, individuals who were not allowed to return to
               evacuated areas immediately after the hurricane and subsequently saw only limited damage noted
               that they would not evacuate when the next hurricane approached. This attitude is a continuing
               problem that the NWS and FEMA will have to resolve in present and future educational outreach
               efforts.






                                                             28








            Preparedness

            The true measure of a warning program's effectiveness is the degree of response that the warning
            elicits from the public and local officials. The NWS must work closely with emergency
            managers, officials and the media to gain their trust and to ensure that their requirements for
            technical information are met. Similarly, active public awareness campaigns conducted with
            local officials and the media foster heightened awareness of hazards presented by hurricanes.

            Numerous prefearly season hurricane preparedness activities were conducted throughout the
            Region prior to Bertha making landfall in North Carolina and then moving up the east coast, a
            short distance inland. Most individuals knew how to respond to Bertha's threat, and thereby
            demonstrated that NWS community preparedness/outreach efforts indeed paid off. It was
            interesting to note, however, that North Carolina Preparedness Week was scheduled in North
            Carolina for the week following Bertha's passage. Needless to say, the week's activities were
            canceled in lieu of the "real-life" experiences associated with this early season hurricane.

            In South Carolina, working relations with local and state emergency managers are in excellent
            condition thanks to regular South Carolina Hurricane Task Force meetings and work
            accomplished through the local NWSO Charleston and NWSFO Columbia preparedness
            programs. Similar actions at other Eastern Region coastal NWSFOs/NWSOs translated to
            successful local preparedness efforts during the days leading up to Bertha's passage through the
            Region.

            During state conference calls, the state and local officials displayed reasonable expectations and
            asked pertinent questions of the local office NWS participants. These emergency managers
            seemed to understand well the role local NWSFO and NWSO offices play and used NWS-
            provided information to their full advantage.

            Finally, Eastern Region NWSFOs and NWSOs were well prepared internally for Bertha with
            appropriate staffing changes initiated well in advance of the hurricane/tropical storm. This
            ensured that local NWS offices were properly staffed to meet the challenges posed by this
            hurricane. Externally, shelters were opened where needed, and again, no preparedness problems
            were noted.


















                                                           29







                             Appendix A
                   Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale*


       Category      Definition-Likely Effects

       ONE           Winds 74-95 mph: No real damage to building structures. Damage
                     primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some
                     coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

       TWO           Winds 96-110 mph: Some roofing material, door, and window damage to
                     buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, and piers.
                     Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

       THREE         Winds 111-130 mph: Some structural damage to small residences and
                     utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile
                     homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures
                     with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded
                     well inland.


       FOUR          Winds 131-155 mph: More extensive curtainwall failures with some
                     complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of
                     beach areas. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
                     Terrain may be flooded well inland.

       FIVE          Winds greater than 155 mph: Complete roof failure on many residences
                     and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small
                     utility buildings blown over or away. Major damage to lower floors of all
                     structures located near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential
                     areas may be required.





        In operational use, the scale corresponds to the I -minute average sustained wind speed as
       opposed to gusts which could be 20 percent higher or more.







                                   A-1







                          Appendix B

t                    Meteorological Tables



























                               B-I










                     Table 1. Best track, Huff icane Bertha, 5 - 14 July, 1996 (updated 4 August 1996),

                     Date/Time                           Position                       Pressure          Wind Speed                         Stage
                         (UTC)                                                              (mb)                 (kt)
                                              Lat. ('N)            Lon. (*W)
                     0510000                      9.8                   34.0                1009                 30                   tropical depression
                        0600                      10.2                  36.3                1008                 30                            11
                        1200                      11.0                  39.0                1007                 35                      tropical storm
                        1800                      12.0                  41.2                1006                 35
                     06/0000                      12.7                  43.9                1005                 35
                        0600                      13.1                  46.6                1004                 35
                        1200                      13.7                  48.7                1002                 40
                        1800                      14.2                  51.0                1000                 45
                     07/0000                      14.9                  52.9                999                  50
                        0600                      15.6                  54.8                997                  55
                        1200                      16.4                  56.9                995                  60
                        1800                      16.5                  58.4                992                  70                        hurricane
                     08/0000                      17.0                  60.1                988                  75
                        0600                      17.5                  61.8                985                  75
                        1200                      18.0                  63.5                983                  70
                        1800                      18.6                  64.9                978                  75
                     09/0000                      19.4                  66.1                970                  80
                        0600                      20.3                  67.7                960                  100
                        1200                      21.4                  69.4                965                  100
                        1800                      22.5                  71.1                967                  90
                     10/0000                      23.6                  72.6                969                  85
                        0600                      24.5                  74.0                971                  80
                        1200                      25.4                  75.3                968                  80
                        1800                      26.4                  75.8                966                  80
                     11/0000                      27.5                  76.4                968                  75
                        0600                      28.3                  76.8                972                  75
                        1200                      29.2                  77.5                977                  75
                        1800                      30.0                  78.0                980                  70
                     12/0000                      30.7                  78.3                982                  70
                        0600                      31.2                  78.6                984                  70
                        1200                      32.2                  78.4                975                  85
                        1800                      33.6                  78.1                974                  90
                     13/0000                      35.0                  77.6                993                  65
                        0600                      36.7                  77.0                993                  60                      tropical storm
                        1200                      38.3                  76.1                994                  60
                        1800                      40.2                  74.5                994                  60
                     14/0000                      42.1                  71.9                994                  60
                        0600                      44.1                  69.0                995                  55
                        1200                      46.0                  66.0                995                  50                       extratropical
                        1800                      47.0                  62.0                995                  50
                     15/0000                      48.0                  57.0                995                  50
                        0600                      49.0                  52.0                996                  45
                        1200                      51.0                  47.0                996                  40
                        1800                      54.0                  44.0                996                  40
                     16/0000                      57.5                  42.5                991                  40
                        0600                      58.5                  42.5                988                  40
                        1200                      59.5                  .42.0               988                  45
                        1800                      59.8                  41.0                985                  45
                     17/0000                      60.0                  40.0                993                  40
                        0600                      60.5                  39.0                1001                 35
                     09/0600                      20.3                  67.7                960                  100                   minimum pressure
                     12/2000                      34.3                  77.8                974                  90                landfall* midway between
                                                                                                                               Wrightsville and Topsail Beaches
                        *The eyewall also passed over Antigua, Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, St Martin, St Thomas, and the British Virgin Islands
                        and passed close to a number of other islands in the northeastern Caribbean Sea.











                  Table2. Hurricane Bertha selected surface observations. Julv 1996.
                                                            Press.    Date/time        Sustained             Feak  Date/time I Storm               Storm        total
                  Location                                  (mb)      (UTQ             wind(kt)a             gust  (UTO'             ge(ft)c       tide(ft)"    rain(in.)
                                                                                                                             _Lsu-rge(ft)c
                  Florida
                    Jacksonville                            1011.9  j 11/2256          22(2 min)             27    11/1721                                      trace
                    Jacksonville Beach                                                                                                             2
                  Georgia
                    Sea Island                                                                                                                     3
                    St. Simon                                                                                                                      3
                  South Carolina
                    Charleston international airport        1008.5  1 12/1155          30 (2-min.)           39    12/0130                                      1.48
                    Charleston city office
                                                                                       36                    50    12/1130                                      0.94
                    Charleston harbor                                                                                             2.7
                    Cheraw                                                                                                                                      0.38
                    Cherry Grove pier                                                                        68
                    Garden City pier                                                                         54
                    Loris
                                                                                                                                                                2.77
                    Myrtle Beach                                                                                                                                2.40
                    Myrtle Beach, Sands Resort
                                                                                                                                                                4.73
                    Myrtle Beach Springmaid pier                                                                                  3.3
                    Myrtle Beach pavilion                                                                    52
                    Summerville
                                                                                                                                                                1.40
                  North Carolina
                    Beaufort Duke marine lab                                                                                      2.8
                                                                                                             56    12/2125
                    Beaufort
                    Bath                                                                                                                           6
                    Bellhaven                                                                                                                      7
                    Bnmswick                                                                                                                  T -5
                                                                                                                                                   6
                    Carolina Beach
                                                                                                             64    12/2242      1
                    Cherry Point (NKT)
                    East Wilmington                                                                          70
                    Greenville                                                                               76                                                 4.11
                                                                                                             63    13/0100
                    Ratteras ferry ofice
                    Kure Beach                                                       1 49                    180   12/1835
                                                                                                   -T-
                    Lake Waccamaw                                                                                                                               2.39
                    Newport                                 994.3                                            178                                                2.95
                                                                                                                   12/2208                                      4.56c
                    New Bem                                                                                  162
                    New River (NCA)                                                                          94    12/2021
                    Pongo River                                                                                                                    4.5
                    Seymour Johnson AFB                     986.3       12/2355      1 33                    52    12/2155                                      4.03
                    Snow Hill                                                                                                                                   5.44
                    S. Pamlico River                                                                                                               3
                    Southport (Nixon)                       978.3       2/1835         55                    74    12/1703
                    Surf City (Horodner)                    977       1 12/2005
                    Swansboro
                    Williamston                                                                                                                                 4.10
                    Wilmington (ILM)                        978.7       12/2028        46(2-min)             61    12/1902      i  1.3                          5.66
                    Wilmington NC state port                                                                 77    i
                    Wilmington port terminal                980.1       12/1850        NOAA ship Whiting, 3.4.2N 77-96W
                    Cape Lookout Buoy                                                                        62    112/2300
                    Diamond Shoals Buoy                                                                      171   113/0200
                                                            977.5       12/1800        7700 min)             101   12/1610
                    FPSN7 (CMAN. 80 ft asi)
                                                                                                             80
                    Wrightsville Bch. Banks ch.
                    Virginia
                                                                        1311155
                    Andrews AFB (ADW)                       1000.6                                           35    13/0750                                      0.94
                    Baltimore Washington airport            11000.3   1 13/1349                              141   13/0704                                      2.28
                    Cape Charles                                                                             61    13/0330
                    Eastvillc, Northhampton Co.                                                                                                                 7.00












                 Table2(continued). Hurricane Bertha selected surface observations. JuIv 1996.
                                                       Press.       Dateitime       Sustained         Peak      Dateitime      Storm          Storm          total
                 Location                              (Mb)         (UTC)           wind(kt)c         gust      (UTO,          surge(ft)g     tide (ft)'     rain(in.)
                 Virginia
                 Elizabeth City (EC6)                  998.9        13/1313         39                i48       13/0055
                 Newport News (PHF)                  1 993.1        1310750
                 Norfolk International airport.        995.1        13/0756         31                42        13/0740                                      2.44
                 Norfolk NAS (NGU)                     994.4        13/0755         30                42        13/0155
                 Norfolk, Sewells Point
                                                                                                                               2.5
                 Oceana NAS (NTU)                    1 997.2        13/0755
                 Pasquotank River                   -7                                                                                        5
                 Patuxent Fiver NAS (NHK)            1 995.0        13/1100                           42        13/0603     1                                4.03
                 Plantation Creek                                                                                                                            7.20
                 Potomac river at Wisc. Ave.
                                                                                                                                              5
                 Wallops Island                                          ---T-42                      47        13/0605
                 Washington Dulles airport                                                            29        13/1218
                                                                                                                                                             1.12
                 Washington National airport 1 1001.7            1  13/1221                                                                                  1.24
                                                                                                      29        13/1346
                                                                                                                       'i
                                                                                 1                                                                           5.80
                 Willis Wharf, Accornac Co.
                 Chesapeake Light Stn. Buoy                                         49                56        13/0700
                 Fenwick Is. Buoy (44009)                                           41                48        13/1300
                 Maryland
                 Nanticoke, Wicontico Co.
                                                                                                                                                             5.03
                 Salisbury                                                                                                                                   5.62
                 Delaware
                 Dover                                 995.6      1 1311155         30                50
                 Lewes                                                                                                         1.58
                 New Jersey
                 Atlantic City                                                                                                 2.27                          2.41
                 Estelle Manor                                                                                                                               6.59
                 Harvey Cedars                                                                        55
                 Newark airport                                                     25 (2-min.)       35        13/1521
                 -Teterboro airport                                                 26 (2-min.)       38        13/1547
                 River Vale                                                                                                                                  2.17
                 West Milford                                                                                                                                4.85
                 Pennsylvania
                 Philadelphia                                       29              36                                                                       12.43
                 New York
                 Ambrose Light Tower buoy                                                             48
                 Babylon ViUage, L.I.                                                                 64
                 Buoy southwest of Fire Is.                                                           37
                 Brookhaven airport                                                 26                36        13/1947
                 East Quogue, Suffolk co.                                                                                                                    1 0.76
                 -JFK airport                                                       31(2-min.)        37        113/1458
                 LaGuardia airport                                                  29 (2-min.)       38        113/1518
                                                                                                                                                             2.49
                 Mt. Sinai(New York City)
                 Ossining, Westchester Co.                                                                                                                   3.09
                 Pomona, Rockland Co.                                                                                                                        4.65
                 Connecticut                                                                                                                                 0.91
                                                                                                                13/1547
                 Bridgeport airport                                                 27                34
                 Orange
                 Preston                                                                              148
                 Shelton                                                                                                                                     14.06
                 Vernon
                                                                                                                                                             5.50










        Table2(continued). Hurricane Bertha selected surface observations. Julv 1996.
                                                        Date/time      Sustained                 e/time     Storm          Storm       total
        Location                            Press.      (UTC)          windi         gust     (UM         Tsurgetffll      tide(ft)'   rain(in.)
                                                                                    _I Peak   Dat
        Rhode Island
          Fox Point hurricatie barrier
                                                                                                            2.1
          Sachuest Point (Middletown)                                  54           i64       14/00109   hand-held anemometer
          Providence                        995.9       13/2336
        Maine
          Goshen
                                                                                                                                     1 5.70
          Billerica                                                                                                                    7.20
          Boston                            996.3       14/0056                     1
          New Bedford                                                  45            76       13/2030        1'.7
          Taunton ASOS                      995.6       14/0041
        Puerto Rico
          San Juan                          996.8       08/2056        39           1 49      08/2056
             4 averaging period is I min unless otherwise indicated.
             'Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.
             ' Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
             dStorm tide is water height above NGVD.
             'Top of rain gage blew off and "a lot of rain was sucked out".










                   Table 3. Ship reports of 34 knots or higher wind speed, associated with Hurricane Bertha, July 1996.

                   date/time        ship name                      latitude             longitude           wind dir/            pressure
                   (UTC)                                           (ON)                 (1,W)               speed(knots)         (mb)

                   07/1200          FNOR                           17.1                 53.8                110/39               1014.2

                   08/1800          WZJE                           21.6                 64.3                130/35               1013.0

                   09/0000          WCHF                           21.6                 64.7                080/036              1009.1


                   09/0300          WZJE                           20.0                 64.6                100/38               1007.0

                   09/0300          WCHF                           21.0                 65.0                100/48               1008.9

                   09/0600          WZJE                           16.9                 65.1                130/40               1007.5


                   09/0600          WCHF                           20.6                 65.1                130/48               1006.9

                   09/0900          WCHF                           20.4                 65.3                130/42               1009.0

                   09/1800          WZJF                           23.0                 67.9                100/43               1012.0

                   09/1800          P3TA4                          24.3                 67.0                110/34               1013.2

                   11/1800          KIRF                           28.5                 78.8                270/35               1006.0

                   11/1800          C6YC                           29.6                 73.5                150/040              1020.5

                   11/1800          KRPP                           30.8                 79.9                050140               1010.0

                   11/1800          PCAM                           31.6                 80.4                040/43               1010.0

                   11/1800          DQFT                           32.4                 72.6                140/35               1022.5

                   11/2100          C6YC                           28.9                 74.3                140/42               1018.8

                   12/0000          C6YC                           28.3                 74.8                140/38               1017.5


                   12/0000          KRPP                           30.8                 80.1                030/38               1004.7


                   12/0000          PCAM                           31.0                 80.9                020/47               1010.0

                   12/0600          DQFT                           30.7                 74.7                140/58               1019.0

                   12/0600          PCAM                           31.1                 80.6                360/66               1005.0

                   12/0600          KRLZ                           31.3                 76.5                130/45               1008.0

                   12/0900          KRLZ                           30.8                 76.4                150155               1007.3

                   12/1200          P3HR2                          28.6                 79.7                270/34               1015.5


                   12/1200          KRLZ                           30.4                 76.4                150/43               1008.8


                   12/1200          ELSD9                          30.9                 75.4                150/37               1016.0


                   12/1200          SHIP                           34.9                 71.1                180/52

                   12/1500          DQFT                           30.0                 77.3                180/39               1015.0









                     Table 3(continued). Ship reports of 34 knots or higher wind speed, associated with Hurricane Bertha, July 1996.

                     date/time       ship name                    latitude           longitude          wind dir/          pressure
                     (UTC)                                        (ON)               (0 W)              speed(knots)       (mb)

                     12/1800         DQFT                         30.1               78.1               210/47             1015.5

                     12/1800         9VKR                         30.5               74.8               170/35             1013.0

                     12/1800         ELSD9                        30.7               76.3               150/37             1017.5

                     12/1800         SHIP                         32.7               73.6               160/40             1016.8

                     12/1800         9VBK                         33.8               73.9               140/34             1017.8

                     '13/0000        WCjY                         32.7               75.2               180/35             1022.2


                     13/0000         9VBK                         33.6               75.1               170/38             1012.2

                     13/0600         3FWD                         32.2               73.7               180/37             1017.0


                     13/0600         9VBK                         33.3               76.0               200/38             1013.3


                     13/1200         4XGS                         39.3               73.9               140/60             1006.0


                     13/1200         9VUM                         37.9               73.2               150/40             1008.1


                     13/1500         3FEB5                        36.5               69.9               180/40             1019.6

                                     9VUM                         37.6               73.9               210/44             1006.5


                     13/1500         4XGS                         38.7               74.1               160/60             1000.0
                     13/1800         3FEB5                        36.0               70.0               170/37           1 1017.9
                     13/1800         9VUM                         37.3               74.8               240/62             1009.6

                     13/1800         4XGS                         38.1               74.3               210/40             1005.0

                     13/1800         LENA3                        40.6               72.4               170/40             1004.0

                     13/2100         DDQS                         39.5               69.0               170/37             1012.6

                     14/0000         DDQS                         39.6               69.5               210/47             1009.8
                     14/0000         NJPJ                         41.9               70.3               180/35           1 1006.1
                     14/0600         DDQS                         39.7               70.4               240/35             1013.3
                     14/0900         VOLG                         45.0               60.4               170/35               611.4

                     14/1200         JKPS                         37.4               66.                230/39             1022.0

                     14/1200         CG2683                       43.3               62.6               230/50             1007.0

                     14/1200         3EXP6                        43.9               61.3               180/48             1007.8

                     14/1200         VOLG                         45.2               59.4               170/35









                 Table 4. Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Bertha. July 1996.

                 Date/time      Action                                  Location
                 (UTC)

                 06/1500        hurricane watch                         Antigua. Barbuda, Nevis. Montserrat. St Kitts, Anguilla.
                                                                        Saba, St Eustatius, Dominica, and Dutch St Maarten

                 06/2100        hurricane watch                         Guadeloupe, St Barthelemy, French St Martin, U.S. and
                                                                        British Virgin Islands

                 07/0300        hurricane warning                       Dominica northward to Anguilla and St Maarten

                 07/1200        hurricane watch                         Puerto Rico

                 07/1500        hurricane warning                       U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

                 08/0000        tropical storm watch                    Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Frances
                                                                        Viejo

                 08/0300        hurricane watch                         Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Frances
                                                                        Viejo

                 08/0900        hurricane watch                         Turks and Caicos Islands

                 08/1200        hurricane warning                       Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo, to Monte
                                                                        Cristo, southeastern Bahamas

                 08/1500        hurricane warning discontinued          Dominica

                 08/1800        hurricane watch                         Haiti from St Nicolas to border of Dominican Republic

                 08/1800        huricane warning discontinued           Leeward Islands south and east of St Eustatius

                 08/2100        hurricane warning                       Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas

                 08/2100        hurricane warning discontinued          Leeward Islands

                 08/2100        hurricane watch                         central Bahamas

                 09/0100        hurricane warning discontinued          U.S. and British Virgin Islands

                 09/0300        hurricane warning discontinued          Puerto Rico

                 09/0300        tropical storm warning                  Haiti from St Nicolas to border of Dominican Republic

                 09/0900        hurricane warning                       central Bahamas

                 09/0900        hurricane watch                         northwestern Bahamas

                 09/1500        watches and warnings discontinued       Dominican Republic and Haiti

                 09/2100        hurricane warning                       northwestern Bahamas

                 10/0300        tropical storm warning                  north of Deerfield Beach. FL to Brunswick, GA

                 10/0300        hurricane watch                         north of Brunswick to NCNA border including Pamlico
                                                                        and Albemarle Sounds









                     Table 4(cont.). Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Bertha. Julv 1996.

                     Date/time      Action                                   Location
                     (UTQ

                     10/0900        hurricane warning discontinued           Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas

                     1011500        hurricane warning                        Sebastian Inlet, FL to Cape Romain. SC

                     10/1800        hurricane warning discontinued           central Bahamas

                     10/2100        hurricane warning                        Cape Romain to NCNA border including Pamlico and
                                                                             Albemarle Sounds

                     10/2100        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Sebastian Inlet. FL

                     11/0300        hurricane watch                          NCNA border to Chincoteague VA including southern
                                                                             Chesapeake Bay

                     11/0600        hurricane warning discontinued           northwestern Bahamas

                     11/0900        hurricane warning discontinued           south of Brunswick, GA

                     12/0900        hurricane warning discontinued           Savannah, Ga southward

                     12/1500        tropical storm warning                   NCNA border to Chincoteague, VA including southern
                                                                             Chesapeake Bay

                     12/1900        hurricane warning discontinued           Cape Romain, SC southward

                     12/2100        hurricane warning                        NCNA border to Chincoteague, VA including the
                                                                             Hampton Roads area

                     12/2100        tropical storm warning                   north of Chincoteague, VA to Watch Hill, RI including
                                                                             the lower Delaware Bay

                     12/2100        tropical storm watch                     east of Watch Hill to the Merrimack River. MA

                     13/0300        hurricane warning discontinued           south of Topsail Beach, NC

                     13/0300        hurricane watch discontinued             lower Chesapeake Bay
                     0/0300         tropical storm warning                   all of Chesapeake Bay and the lower tidal Potomac River
                                                                             and all of Delaware Bay
                     13/0700        hurricane warning to tropical storm      Topsail Beach, NC to Chincoteage, VA including
                                    warning                                  Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

                     13/0900        hurricane warning discontined            NCNA border southward

                     13/1200        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Fenwick Island, DE
                     13/1500        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Brigatine, NJ and Delaware Bay
                     13/2100        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Fire Island, NY
                     14/0000        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Watch Hill, RI

                     14/0300        tropical storm warning discontinued      remainder of US east coast







                                               Appendix C

                                Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale


           Cate2ory Definition-Effective

           (FO)           Gale tornado (40-72 mph): Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; break
                          branches off trees; push over shallow-rooted trees; damage sign boards.

           (Fl)           Moderate tornado (73-112 mph): Moderate damage. The lower limit is the
                          beginning of hurricane wind speed; peel surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed
                          off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads.

           (F2)           Significant tornado (113-157 mph): Considerable damage. Roofs torn off
                          frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars pushed over; large trees
                          snapped or uprooted; light-object. missiles generated.

           (F3)           Severe tornado (158-206 mph): Severe damage. Roofs and some walls torn off
                          well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy
                          cars lifted off ground and thrown.

           (F4)           Devastating tornado (207-260 mph): Devastating damage. Well-constructed
                          houses leveled; structure with weak foundation blown off some distance; cars
                          thrown and large missiles generated.

           (F5)           Incredible tornado (261-318 mph): Incredible damage. Strong frame houses
                          lifted off foundations and carried considerable distance to disintegrate; automobile
                          sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 yards; trees debarked; incredible
                          phenomena will occur.















                                                        C-1







                         Appendix D


                   Storm Prediction Center
                    Tornado Watch Areas
































                              D-1







                                                                 TORNADO                          #0764

                                                                 Issue Time:         1437 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                 Valid Time:         1500 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                 End Time:           0000 UTC 07/13/1996


                                  ... . . .......
                                                                 Area:                      19244 sq. mi.

                                   ...... ...
                                                                 Issuing Forecaster: JOHNS







                                                                 ZCZC MKCSAW4 ALL 130000;332,0800 360,0774 2160,0751 332,0773;
                                                                 WWUS40 KMKC 121437 CDR
                                                                 MKC AWW 121437 CDR
                                                                 WW 764 TORNADO SC NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 12150OZ 13000OZ
                                                                 AXIS.30 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                 20SSE MYR/MYRTLE BEACH SC/ - 70NNE EWN/NEW BERN NCI
                                                                 -AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /65SE FLO - 24SW ECG/
                                                                 WIND GUSTS.30 KNOTS.
                                                                 MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN WIND VECTOR 12035.
                                                                 NNNN




                                                                 ZCZC MKCSEL4 ALL 130000;332,0800 360,0774 360,0751 332,0773;
                                                                 WWUS9 KMKC 121437 COR
                                                                 MKC WW 121437 CDR
                                                                 SCZ000-NCZ000-1 30000-

                                                                 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                 TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 764
                                                                 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                 1037 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 1996

                                                                 A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                 TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                 PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
                                                                 PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                 EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

                                                                 TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                 THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


                     <NO CANCELLATION>                           THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                 OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
                                                                 CAROLINA TO 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA.

                                                                 REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                 TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                 PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                 WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                 WARNINGS.


                                                                 C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTNIS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO EXTRM
                                                                 TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO
                                                                 550. MEAN WIND VECTOR 12035.

                                                                 D...

                                                                 E... OTIR TSTMS...

                                                                 ...JOHNS

                                                                 NNNN







                                                                     TORNADO #0765

                                                                     Issue Time:        1836 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                     Valid Time:        1900 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                     End Time:          0000 LITC 07/13/1996


                                                                     Area:                     13139 sq. mi.
                   -Ij
                                                                     Issuing Forecaster: JOHNS








                                                                    ZCZC MKCSAW5 ALL 130000;375,0742 360,0751 360,0774 375,0765:
                                                                    WWUS40 KMKC 121836
                                                                    MKC AWW 121836
                                                                    WW 765 TORNADO VA NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 1219DOZ - 13000OZ
                                                                    AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND -WEST OF LINE..
                                                                    70NNE ORF/NORFOLK VA/ - 25SW ECG/ELIZABETH CITY NC/
                                                                    -AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /32SSW SBY - 21SW ECG/
                                                                    WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
                                                                    MAX TOPS TO 530. MEAN WIND VECTOR 12030.
                                                                    NNNN




                                                                    ZCZC MKCSEL5 ALL 130000;375,0742 360,0751 360,0774 375,0765;
                                                                    WWUS9 KMKC 121836
                                                                    MKC WW 121836
                                                                    VAZ00O-NCZ0OO-1 30000-

                                                                    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 765
                                                                    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                    236 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 1996

                                                                    A ... THE STORM PREDICTION cr=NtER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                    TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                     PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
                                                                     PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                     AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                    EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

                                                                    TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                    THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


                          <NO CANCELLATION>                         THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                    OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 25
                                                                    MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

                                                                    REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                    PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                    WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                    WARNINGS.


                                                                    C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH EXTRM TURSC AND SFC WIND
                                                                    GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO 530. MEAN WIND
                                                                    VECTOR 12030.

                                                                    D ... WIND FIELDS ARE INCRG NWD ALG SFC TROF THRU NERN NC AND
                                                                    SERN VA WHERE AMS IS MODERATE. TORNADO PTNL WL BE INCRG NWD
                                                                    WITH TIME INTO SERN VA.

                                                                    E...OTR TSTMS... CONT..WW 764..

                                                                    ... JOHNS

                                                                    NNNN







                                                                    n             TORNADO #0768

                                                                                  Issue Time:              2316 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                                  Valid Time:              0000 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                  End Time:                0900 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                  Replace Time:            0815 UTC Q7/13/1996

                                                                                  Area:                             27993 sq. mi.
                                                                                  Issuing Forecaster: WIESS






                                                                                  ZCZC MKCSAWB ALL 130900;3",0780 382,0771 382,0743 3",0753;
                                                                                  WWUS40 KMKC 122316
                                                                                  MKC AWW 122316
                                                                                  WW 768 TORNADO NC VA MD AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 13000OZ - 13090OZ
                                                                                  AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                                  25SSE EWN/NEW BERN NCI - 25WNW SBY/SALISBURY MD/
                                                                                  _AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /57NE ILM - 20WNW SBY/
                                                                                  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT.. 1/2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
                                                                                  MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17050,
                                                                                  REPLACES WW 764 .. SC NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                  REPLACES WW 765..VA NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                  NNNN



                                                                                  ZCZC MKCSEL8 ALL 130900;344,0780 382,0771 382,0743 344,0753;
                                                                                  WWUS9 KMKC 122316
                                                                                  MKC WW 122316
                                                                                  NCZOOO-VAZOOO-MDZOOO- 130900-

                                                                                  BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                                  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 768
                                                                                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                                  716 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 1996

                                                                                  A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                                  TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                                  PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                                  PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
                                                                                  PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MARYLAND
                                                                                  AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                                  EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

                                                                                  TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                                  THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

                            <NO CANCELLATION>
                                                                                  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                                  OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                                  TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SALISBURY MARYLAND.

                                                                                  REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                                  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                                  PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                                  WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                                  WARNINGS.

                                                                                  B. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION.. THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
                                                                                  WXTCH NUMBER 764...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 765. WATCH NUMBERS
                                                                                  764 ... 765 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 800 PM EDT.


                                                                                  C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 1/2
                                                                                  INCHES. EXTRM TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS
                                                                                  WITH MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17050.

                                                                                  0 ... BANDS OF CNVTN ASSOCD WITH HURCN BERTHA EXPCD TO CONT ROTG NWO
                                                                                  AND NWWD THRU THE NERN QUAD OF THE CRCLN CENTER. IR STLT IMAGERY
                                                                                  INDCS COOLING CLD TOPS NR THE EYEWALL RGN AS WELL AS IN THE
                                                                                  OFFSHORE FEEDER BANDS. 50-70 KT LOW LVL WINDS ABV THE SFC EAST OF
                                                                                  THE CENTER WILL MAINTAIN VERY STG LOW LVL SHEAR/HELICITY FVRBL FOR
                                                                                  THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES AS BERTHA MOVES NWD TNGT.

                                                                                  E ... OTR TSTMS... THIS WATCH REPLACES..WW 764..WW 765.. CONT..WW
                                                                                  766..WW 767.,

                                                                                  ... WEISS

                                                                                  NNNN







                                                                                          TORNADO #0770

                                                                                          Issue Time:                0441 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                          Valid Time:                0500 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                          End Time:                  1200 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                          Replace Time:              0815 UTC Q7/13/1996

                                                                                          Area:                              10567 sq. mi.
                                                                                          Issuing Forecaster: WEISS






                                                                                         ZCZC MKCSAWO, ALL 131200;382,0765 401,0755 401,0734 382,0744;
                                                                                         WWUS40 KMKC 130441 CDR
                                                                                         MKC AWW 130441 COR
                                                                                         WW 770 TORNADO MD DE NJ PA AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 13050OZ - 13120OZ
                                                                                         AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                                         50SSW DOV/DOVER DE/ - TTNfTRENTON NJ/
                                                                                         -AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /16WNW SBY - 39SW EWR/
                                                                                         HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT.. 1/2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
                                                                                         MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17040.
                                                                                         NNNN




                                                                                         ZCZC MKCSELO ALL 131200;382,0765 401,0755 401,0734 382,0744:
                                                                                         WWUS9 KMKC 130441 CDR
                                                                                         MKC WW 130441 CDR
                                                                                         MDZOOD-DEZOOO-NJZOOO-PAZOOO-131200-

                                                                                         BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                                         TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 770
                                                                                         NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                                         1241 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 1996

                                                                                         A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                                         TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                                         PARTS OF MARYLAND
                                                                                         PARTS OF DELAWARE
                                                                                         PARTS OF NEW JERSEY
                                                                                         PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA
                                                                                         AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                                         EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

                                                                                         TORNADOES LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING THUNDERST
                                                                                         E POSSIBLE N'THESE AREAS.
                                  <NO CANCELLATION>

                                                                                         THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                                         OM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DELAWARE TO TRENTON NEW JERSE

                                                                                         REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORN
                                                                                         ERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE A
                                                                                         D BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOF
                                                                                         TEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


                                                                                         C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 112 INCHES.
                                                                                         TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO 450.
                                                                                         ND VECTOR 17040.

                                                                                         D...

                                                                                         E...OTR TSTMS... CONT..WW 768..WW 769..WW 770..

                                                                                         ... WEISS

                                                                                         NNNN







                                                                                      TORNADO #0771

                                                                                      Issue Time:              0800 LITC 07/13/1996
                                                                                      Valid Time:              0815 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                      End Time:                1500 LITC 07/13/1996


                                                      X.N,
                                                                                      Area:                              41048 sq. mi.
                                                                                      Issuing Forecaster: CORFIDI








                                                                                      ZCZC MKCSAW1 ALL 131500;372,0781 411,0751 411,0712 373,0743;
                                                                                      WWUS40 KMKC 130800
                                                                                      MKC AWW 130800
                                                                                      WW 771 TORNADO VA DC MD PA NJ NY CT DE AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 130815Z
                                                                                      13150OZ
                                                                                      AXIS.. 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                                      50E RIC/RICHMOND VA/ - 15NW BDR/BRIDGEPORT CT/
                                                                                      -AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /37NNW ORF - 13NW BDR/
                                                                                      WIND GUSTS-70 KNOTS.
                                                                                      MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17040.
                                                                                      REPLACES WW 768 .. NC VA MO AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                      REPLACES WW 770..MD DE NJ PA AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                      NNNN


                                                                                      ZCZC MKCSEL1 ALL 131500:372,0781 411,0761 411,0712 373,0743;
                                                                                      WWUS9 KMKC 130800
                                                                                      MKC WW 130800
                                                                                      VAZOOO-DCZOOO-MDZOOO-PAZOOO-NJZOOO-NYZOOO-CTZOOO-DEZOOO-1 31500-

                                                                                      BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                                      TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 771
                                                                                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                                      400 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 1996

                                                                                      A.-THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                                      TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                                      PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA
                                                                                      DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
                                                                                      PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
                                                                                      DELAWARE
                                                                                      PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
                                                                                      NEW JERSEY
                                                                                      PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
                                                                                      PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT

                                                                                      AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
                            <NO CANCELLATION>
                                                                                      EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.
                                                                                      TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                                      THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


                                                                                      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                                      OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 15 MILES
                                                                                      NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT CONNECTICUT.

                                                                                      REMEMBER-A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                                      TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                                      PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                                      WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                                      WARNINGS.

                                                                                      B..OTHER WATCH INFORMATION.. THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
                                                                                      WATCH NUMBER 768 ... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 770. WATCH NUMBER
                                                                                      768 ... 770 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 415 AM EDT.


                                                                                      C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO EXTRM
                                                                                      TUROC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO
                                                                                      450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17040.

                                                                                      D ... THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES LKLY TO CONT INVOF FEEDER BANDS E/NE
                                                                                      OF BERTHA ... WHERE SFC DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED TO ADA 70F AND LOLVL
                                                                                      SPD/DIREC SHEAR RMNS VRY STG.

                                                                                      E... OTR TSTMS... THIS WATCH REPLACES..WW 768..WW 770..

                                                                                      ... CORFIDI







                                                                     TORNADO #0772

                                                                     Issue Time:          1720 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                     Valid Time:          1745 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                     End Time:            0000 UTC 07/14/1996


                                                                     Area:                      15600 sq. mi.
                                                                     Issuing Forecaster: VESCIO

                                  ..... . .. ...





                         L



                                                                    ZCZC MKCSAW2 ALL 140000;404,0731 424,0722 424,0693 404,0702;
                                                                    WWUS40 KMKC 131720
                                                                    MKC AWW 131720
                                                                    WW 772 TORNADO MA CT RI NY AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 131745Z - 14000OZ
                                                                    AXIS '* 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                    3OSSW BID/BLOCK ISLAND RI/ - 25N BOS/BOSTON MA/
                                                                    -AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /59SSW PVD - 38SE CON/
                                                                    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT.. 1/2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
                                                                    MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 20030.
                                                                    NNNN




                                                                    ZCZC MKCSEL2 ALL 140000;464,0731 424,0722 424,0693 404,0702;
                                                                    WWUS9 KMKC 131720
                                                                    MKC WW 131720
                                                                    MAZOOO-CTZOOO-RIZOOO-NYZOOO-140000-

                                                                    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 772
                                                                    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                    120 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 1996

                                                                    A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                    TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                     PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
                                                                     PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT
                                                                     RHODE ISLAND
                                                                     PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
                                                                     AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                    EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

                                                                    TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                    THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
                          <NO CANCELLATION>                         THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                    OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BLOCK ISLAND RHODE
                                                                    ISLAND TO 25 MILES NORTH OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS.

                                                                    REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                    PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                    WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                    WARNINGS.


                                                                    C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR,TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 1/2
                                                                    INCHES. EXTRM TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS
                                                                    WITH MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 20030.

                                                                    D ... CNVTN IS INCRG JUST S OF LONG ISLAND ON E SIDE OF T.S. BERTHA.
                                                                    THIS ACTVTY IS XPCD TO LIFT NWD DURG THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. DRY
                                                                    INTRUSION NOTED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY ALLOW FOR SUFF
                                                                    AMS DESTABILIZATION FOR A FEW SVR TSTMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WNDS AN[
                                                                    ISOLD TORNADOES.

                                                                    ... VESCIO

                                                                    NNNN







                                                   Appendix E

                                                 Aerial Survey


            Introduction


            Hurricane Bertha struck the North Carolina coast on the afternoon and evening of July 12, 1996.
            1 arrived in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Monday, July 15. During the afternoon of July 15, a
            flight was made on the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) DeHavilland Twin Otter. An
            aerial flight was made along the coastline from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
            This 3 1/2 hour flight was spent examining wind damage along the coast and intercostal waterway

            area.


            On Tuesday, July 16, no flight was scheduled as U.S. Geological Survey was flying on a storm
            surge mission. A ground survey of agricultural damage was conducted in the afternoon from
            Wilmington northward to just south of Warsaw, North Carolina.

            Wednesday, July 17, a trip was made with the MIC and WCM of NWSO Wilmington to observe
            the damage at Carolina Beach and Kure Beach, North Carolina. Both locations lost piers. There
            were some structures with portions of roofs torn off, but most structures survived well. In the
            afternoon, another flight was made with the Twin Otter. This flight concentrated on inland
            damage from the hurricane. Damage was mainly confined to crops and trees and extended as far
            north as Goldsboro, North Carolina.


            Coastal Damage

            Wind damage was visible from the air from just north of Bald Head Island near Cape Fear to
            Atlantic Beach, south of Morehead City, North Carolina. The most intense damage with peak
            wind gusts estimated at 110 mph was located between North Topsail Beach and Emerald Isle,
            North Carolina. In this area, many beach homes suffered roof damage. The roof damage varied
            from torn off shingles to whole roofs lost. There were very few total failures to structures due to
            wind. Of those that did fail, it appears they were modular home or mobile home structures.

            Visible coastal erosion was found, especially to beach sand dunes and to a coastal road at North
            Topsail Beach. However, the damage was not as severe as in other recent landfalling hurricanes,
            such as Opal in 1995.

            Further inland along the edge of the intercoastal waterway, the primary damage was to trees.
            Numerous trees fell with most falling in the area northeast of the eye from west of Surf City
            northeastward to just east of Swansboro, North Carolina. This area extended northward to the


                                                            E-1









                 southern portions of Jacksonville. Wind gusts in this area were estimated to be between 80 and
                 100 mph.


                 Inland Agricultural Areas

                 Agricultural areas were particularly exposed to high winds from Hurricane Bertha. Much of the
                 damage was to corn and tobacco crops. Both of these crops are vulnerable to high wind gusts.
                 Much of the agricultural damage was west of the eyewall rather than east. This is due in part to
                 much of the corn and tobacco crops being grown further west rather than along the eastern
                 coastal areas. The storm tracked slowly northward along the North Carolina and South Carolina
                 coastline before making landfall. Thus, crops were exposed to strong northeast winds for an
                 extended period of time, and this caused crops to weaken significantly. The agricultural damage
                 extended as far as 40 miles west of the eye and as far north as Goldsboro, North Carolina, which
                 is approximately 75 to 80 miles inland. Most of the damage occurred in unprotected (no
                 blockage by trees or buildings) areas along the edge of fields. Some fields had more widespread
                 damage where a streak of particularly high wind toppled several rows of corn or tobacco.



                 Tornadoes


                 The initial SPC log of tornadoes associated with Bertha indicated at least six touched down.
                 Three of these reported tornadoes were investigated by air. There was no visible evidence of
                 tornado damage in the three locations of New Bern, Newport, and near Winnabow, North
                 Carolina. It is possible that some of these tornadoes either blended in with the hurricane damage
                 or were not visible from the air. East of Jacksonville, North Carolina, a tornado track was
                 identified from the air and was rated an Fl on the Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale (Appendix Q
                 with a path length of approximately 1 1/2miles. The one area that a tornado most likely did not
                 occur was near Winnabow.



                 Conclusions and Acknowledgments

                 The most severe wind damage associated with Hurricane Bertha was along the coast and east of
                 the eye center, typical of most hurricanes. The peak wind speeds estimated from the aerial
                 survey was 110 mph. Although damage to structures was minimal in this hurricane, agricultural
                 damage was extensive.

                 The author would like to thank the AOC and their fine pilots, Lieutenants Pickett and
                 Longenecker. The author would also like to extend thanks to the Office of the Federal
                 Coordinator for their help in making this survey possible and to Richard Anthony and Tom
                 Matheson from the NWSO Wilmington, North Carolina, for their assistance in conducting the
                 survey.



                                                                E-2




                                                                           *U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997 418-592/40031



















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                                                              GAYLORDINO. 2333           1                  PRINTED IN USA -