    [From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

          Service Assessment

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                     Cover photograph: Hurricane Bertha - http.,Ilwww.ncdc.noaa.govlpubldatalimageslI

           Service Assessment

                    URRICAN

           July 5 -14, 1996

                                                Property of CSC Library

                                                                                                  P"FMOSPI"
           U.S. Department of Commerce
           National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
           National Weather Service
           Silver Spring, MD
                                                                                             C,
           BERTHA

           April 1997                    US Department of commerce                                NENT Of-
                                         NOAA Coastal Services center Library
                                         2234 South Hobson Avenue
                                         Charleston, SC 29405-2413

                                                            Preface

                    The primary purpose of this Service Assessment is to document the evaluation of the National
                    Weather Service's (NWS) performance in fulfilling its mission of providing timely warnings and
                    accurate forecasts for Hurricane Bertha. The NWS's products and services used by emergency
                    managers are key to preparedness for and the mitigation of a tropical cyclone's impact. More
                    specifically, this was the first time a complete Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) was used in an
                    operational environment. This team is ajoint venture between the Federal Emergency
                    Management Agency (FEMA), the NWS and state and local emergency management officials.
                    The concept is to supplement the National Hurricane Center (NHC) staff with Federal, state and
                    local emergency management personnel to provide information and coordination between the
                    NHC and emergency management decision makers. As this assessment has noted, the warning
                    process is a partnership between the NWS and all organizations charged with responding to
                    natural hazards. We in the NWS will continue to forge and nurture relationships to ensure the
                    best possible warning service for our citizens.

                                                                      Elbert W. Friday, Jr.
                                                                      April 1997

                                                 Table of Contents

                                                                                                              Page

                Preface   ....................................................................                    ii

                Acronyms    ..................................................................                   iv

                Acknowledgments      ...........................................................                 vi

                Executive Summary     ..........................................................                 ix

                Summary of Findings and Recommendations         .......................................          xii

                Chapter 1      Service Assessment Summary       .....................................             I

                Chapter 2      National Perspectives   .............................................              5
                                       National Hurricane Center    ...................................           5
                                       Hydrometeorological Prediction Center      ........................       11
                                       Marine Prediction Center    ....................................          12
                                       Storm Prediction Center  .....................................            16

                Chapter 3      Regional Perspectives    ............................................             19
                                       Southern Region    ...........................................            19
                                       Eastern Region   ............................................             23

                Appendices

                Appendix A Saffir-Simpson Scale        ............................................            A-1

                Appendix B     Meteorological Tables    ...........................................            B-I

                Appendix C     Fujita Scale  ....................................................              C-1

                Appendix D     Tornado Watch Areas      ...........................................            D-I

                Appendix E     Aerial Survey    ..................................................             E-I

                                                                iii

                                        Acronyms

               AFOS      Automation of Field Operations and Services
               AOC       Aircraft Operations Center
               ASOS      Automated Surface Observing System
               AST       Atlantic Standard Time
               AVN       Aviation Model
               CWA       County Warning Area
               DEMA      Delaware Emergency Management Agency
               ECMWF     European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
               EDT       Eastern Daylight Time
               EMC       Emergency Management Center
               EMWIN     Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
               ERH       Eastern Region Headquarters
               ET        Electronics Technician
               Eta       Eta Model
               FAA       Federal Aviation Administration
               FEMA      Federal Emergency Management Agency
               ft        feet
               GFDL      Geophysical Fluids Dynamical Lab Model
               GOES      Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
               HLS       Hurricane Local Statement
               HLT       Hurricane Liaison Team
               HPC       Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
               in        inch
               IR        Infrared
               kts       knots
               MAR'      Modernization and Restructuring
               mb,       millibar
               MIC       Meteorologist in Charge
               MPC       Marine Prediction Center
               mph       miles per hour
               MRF       Medium-range Forecast Model
               MRFX      Medium-range Forecast Experimental Model
               NAWAS     National Warning System
               NCEP      National Centers for Environmental Prediction
               NEXRAD    Next Generation Weather Radar
               NGM       Nested Grid Model
               NHC       National Hurricane Center
               nm        nautical miles
               NOAA      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
               NOGAPS    Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

                                              iv

           NOW        Short Term Forecast
           NWR        NOAA Weather Radio
           NWS        National Weather Service
           NWSFO      NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office
           NWSO       NEXRAD Weather Service Office
           NWWS       NOAA Weather Wire Service
           OM         Office of Meteorology
           PUP        Principal User Processor
           QPF        Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
           RDA        Radar Data Acquisition
           Soo        Science and Operations Officer
           SPC        Storm Prediction Center
           SRH        Southern Region Headquarters
           SSMI       Special Sensor Microwave Imagery
           TPC        Tropical Prediction Center
           TWC        The Weather Channel
           UTC        Coordinated Universal Time
           VIS        Visible
           VITEMA     Virgin Islands Territory Emergency Management Agency
           WCM        Warning Coordination Meteorologist
           WFO        Weather Forecast Office
           WSH        Weather Service Headquarters
           WSR-88D    Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler
           WV         Water vapor

                                         v

                                                  Acknowledgments

                    This report was produced by having those responsible for each portion of the service provided
                    write their own section. Each NWS field office and NWS Regional Office affected by Bertha
                    conducted its own survey of the services they provided. Additionally, assessments were written
                    by the National Centers that provided products and services related to Bertha. The Service
                    Assessment Team is grateful to all those that provided valuable input into this document. The
                    individuals primarily responsible for the Assessment are as follows:

                    Service Assessment Team

                    Rick Watling, Products and Services Manager, Meteorological Services Division, NWS Eastern
                    Region Headquarters (ERH), Bohemia, New York

                    Gene Hafele, Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM), NEXRAD (Next Generation
                   'Weather Radar) Weather Service Office (NWSO), Houston, Texas

                   ,Scott Kiser, Technical Leader, Customer Service, Office of Meteorology (OM), Weather Service
                    Headquarters (WSH), Silver Spring, Maryland

                    NWS National Centers

                    Robert Burpee, Director, Tropical Predication Center (TPQ, Miami, Florida

                    Miles Lawrence, Hurricane Specialist, NHC, Miami, Florida

                    Mike Schichtel, Meteorologist, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), Camp Springs,
                    Maryland

                    Dave Feit, Chief Marine Forecast Branch, Marine Prediction Center (MPC), Camp Springs,
                    Maryland

                    Fred Ostby, Chief Operational Guidance Branch, Storm Prediction Center (SPQ, Kansas City,
                    Missouri

                                                                 vi

              Weather Service Headquarters

              Rainer Dombrowsky, Customer Service, OM, WSH, Silver Spring, Maryland

              Linda Kremkau, Technical Editor, Customer Service, OM, WSH, Silver Spring, Maryland

              NWS Regions and Field Offices

              Gary Woodall, WCM, Southern Region Headquarters (SRH), Fort Worth, Texas

              Harvey Thurm, Synoptic Scale Meteorologist, ERH, Bohemia, New York

              Brian Smith, WCM, NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO), Omaha, Nebraska

              Steve Rich, Meteorologist in Charge (MIC), NWSO, Charleston, South Carolina

              Jerry Harrison, WCM, NWSO, Charleston, South Carolina

              Bernie Palmer, MIC, NWSFO, Columbia, South Carolina

              Steve Naglic, WCM, NWSFO, Columbia, South Carolina

              Richard Anthony, MIC, NWSO, Wilmington, North Carolina

              Tom Matheson, WCM, NWSO, Wilmington, North Carolina

              Tom Krielm, MIC, NWSO, Morehead City, North Carolina

              Dan Bartholf, WCM, NWSO, Morehead City, North Carolina

              Steve Harned, MIC, NWSFO, Raleigh, North Carolina

              George Lemons, WCM, NWSFO, Raleigh, North Carolina

              Tony Siebers, MIC, NWSO, Wakefield, Virginia

              Hugh Cobb, Science and Operations Officer (SOO), NWSO, Wakefield, Virginia

              Bill Sammler, WCM, NWSO, Wakefield, Virginia

              Jim Travers, MIC, NWSFO, Sterling, Virginia

                                                       vii

                  Gary Szatkowski, Deputy MIC, NWSFO, Sterling, Virginia

                  Barbara Watson, WCM, NWSFO, Sterling, Virginia

                  Chet Henricksen, MIC, NWSFO, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

                  Joe Miketta, WCM, NWSFO, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

                  Mike Wyllie, MIC, NWSFO, New York City, New York

                  Gary Conte, WCM, NWSFO, New York City, New York

                  Bob Thompson, MIC, NWSFO, Boston, Massachusetts

                  Dave Vallee, Service Hydrologist, NWSFO, Boston, Massachusetts

                  Glenn Field, WCM, NWSFO, Boston, Massachusetts

                  Al Wheeler, MIC, NWSFO, Portland, Maine

                  John Jensenius, WCM, NWSFO, Portland, Maine

                  Patricia Haas, Hydrologist, Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, Pennsylvania

                  Israel Matos, MIC, NWSFO, San Juan, Puerto Rico

                  Rafael Mojica, WCM, NWSFO, San Juan, Puerto Rico

                  Paul Hebert, MIC, NWSFO, Miami, Florida

                  Jim Lushine, WCM, NWSFO, Miami, Florida

                  Bart Hagemeyer, MIC, NWSO, Melbourne, Florida

                  Dennis Decker, WCM, NWSO, Melbourne, Florida

                  Steve Letro, MIC, NWSO, Jacksonville, Florida

                  Fred Johnson, WCM, NWSO, Jacksonville, Florida

                                                            viii

                                             Executive Summary

                Background

                Hurricane Bertha was an early season Category 2 storm when it made landfall on the coast of
                North Carolina on July 12, 1996. Twelve deaths have been directly attributed to Bertha with
                United States damages estimated at $270 million. Extensive evacuations of vulnerable areas
                occurred in advance of Bertha, including 250 million in North Carolina, 80,000 in South
                Carolina and 20,000 in Georgia. Revenue losses to the tourist industry approached $40 million.

                Bertha closely paralleled the southeast U.S. coast at a distance from 170 to 200 miles. This
                created multiple state involvement with almost all of the U.S. east coast involved with some
                watch or warning. The NHC's track forecast was very accurate with average forecast track errors
                15 percent lower than the 10-year official track averages. Where the storm came ashore in North
                Carolina, watches and warnings were posted 65 hours and 47 hours before landfall, respectively,
                which far exceeds the NHC stated goals of 36 and 24 hours. Nevertheless, the coordination
                between NHC and emergency managers, regarding the issuances of watches and warnings, was
                frustrated by efforts to reconcile the meteorology of the event with state and local response
                requirements. Bertha's anticipated turn from a northwest direction to north-northwest as it
                approached the southeast coast was agonizingly slow. This put a great deal of pressure on the
                elected officials and Emergency Management Centers (EMCs) of Florida, South Carolina and
                North Carolina concerning what actions to take. This was also the first time the HLT had been
                fully deployed at the NHC. A Service Assessment Team was dispatched to the NHC as well as
                the impacted states to investigate these issues and to evaluate the HLT.

                Issues

                Bertha's slow northward turn off the Florida coast caused the state of Florida to urge NHC to
                issue watches when NHC felt they were unnecessary. The major concern was that if the storm
                continued to move differently than forecast, sufficient response time would not be available if
                watches or warnings were issued at short notice. Similarly, South Carolina expressed the need
                for early release of the official forecast track before NHC had completed the internal NWS
                coordination process. Several recommendations have been made in this report to help resolve
                theseissues.

                A variety of communication/coordination issues were also revealed. NHC/state briefings were
                complicated by the fact that no single communication system was used to brief state emergency
                management officials, adding to the workload of the hurricane specialists and confusion between
                state EMCs and the NHC as to what method of coordination would be employed. Similar

                                                              ix

                    coordination problems occurred between NWS field offices and local EMCs as well as between
                    some state and local EMC(s). Internal coordination between NWS offices posed difficulties as
                    not all necessary offices are connected to the Hurricane Hotline. This problem will continue to
                    increase as additional NWS offices spin up to full Weather Forecast Office (WFO) status.

                    The amount of meteorological information received by state and local EMCs to a large extent
                    depended upon the resources available to each office. Even though it is not considered an
                    operational system, Internet received high praise while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
                    Administration (NOAA) Weather Wire Service (NWWS) continues to prove too costly for some
                    EMCs. Additionally, NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) coverage is still lacking in some coastal
                    areas. Accordingly, the NWS should seek to expand implementation of the Emergency
                    Management Weather Information Network (EMWIN) as well as NWR.

                    This was the first time the HLT was used in an operational environment. This team is ajoint
                    venture between FEMA, the NWS and state and local emergency management officials. The
                    concept is to supplement the NHC staff with Federal, state and local emergency management
                    personnel to provide information and coordination between the NHC and emergency
                    management decision makers. As this is a new initiative, the HLT is still evolving in response to
                    the needs and desires of both the partners in the HLT and their customers. Questions remain
                    regarding the ultimate mission, function and operations of the HLT. Additionally, a larger
                    resource pool of available people to staff the HLT needs to be identified, and smoother
                    procedures for setting up the team's hardware need to be established.

                    Some data acquisition problems were also noted. The St. Croix and St. Thomas Automated
                    Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) were both powered down by the Federal Aviation
                    Administration (FAA) when the airport towers were abandoned resulting in the loss of valuable
                    ground truth data. Due to the remoteness of the site, the San Juan Weather Surveillance Radar-
                    1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) remote data acquisition (RDA) unit uses generator power since
                    commercial power is not available. The generator produces irregular frequency fluctuations
                    which puts the system out of service. The FAA electronics technician was able to keep the
                    system operational throughout the storm, and a more permanent fix was employed after the
                    .passage of Bertha. NWSFO Miami noted that without data off the southeast Florida coast, no
                    wave information is available south of Melbourne. This forced the staff to estimate waves from
                    their wind forecasts.

                    Meteorology

                    Bertha was -an early season Cape Verde hurricane which started as a tropical depression in the
                    central tropical Atlantic on July 5. For 3 days, the depression moved west-northwest at 23 to
                    29 miles per hour (mph) and strengthened to a hurricane on July 8 as the center moved across the
                    Leeward and Virgin Islands of the northeast Caribbean. Bertha turned northwestward on July 9.
                    Maximum sustained winds reached 115 mph at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), when

                                                                    x

                Bertha was centered 138 miles north of Puerto Rico. The last hurricane to reach this strength this
                early in the season was Alma in 1966. Moving northwest, the center paralleled the Bahama
                islands. The track became north-northwest on July 10 and I I as the center moved parallel to the
                coast of Florida and Georgia. With a forward speed of 17 mph, Bertha made landfall at 4 p.m.
                EDT on July 12 on the coast of North Carolina, midway between Wrightsville and Topsail
                Beaches.
                Bertha quickly dropped below hurricane strength when it moved inland over eastern North
                Carolina. Highest wind gusts reported on land were 108 mph at Camp Lejeune and Jacksonville,
                North Carolina. The lowest observed sea-level pressure at landfall was 977 millibars (mb) at
                Surf City, North Carolina. A value of 974 mb is assumed to be the minimum landfall pressure.
                Bertha then moved northeast along the U.S. east coast, producing 45 to 60 mph sustained winds
                over land from northern North Carolina to New England. Bertha was declared extratropical on
                July 14 when the center moved from the Maine coast to New Brunswick, Canada.

                Coastal storm surge flood heights, from Florida through New England, ranged from I to 4 feet,
                but values to 5 feet were estimated on the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout.
                A storm surge of 6 feet was indicated near Swansboro, North Carolina.

                Rainfall associated with Bertha occurred from the eastern Carolinas to Maine with many
                locations receiving 2- to 4-inch amounts. Isolated reports of over 6 inches were reported from
                North Carolina to Massachusetts. The maximum was 7.20 inches at Billerica, Massachusetts.
                Bertha's rapid motion through the Northeast served to limit rainfall duration and amounts.

                Six tornadoes have been confirmed with four in Virginia, one in North Carolina and one in
                Maryland.

                                                              xi

                                                     Summary of
                                     Findings and Recommendations

                                               National Implementation

                   Finding 1a:           Some confusion remains as to the purpose of the HLT.

                   Finding 1b:           The workload for the hurricane specialists, with the HLT in place, was
                                         not reduced and in some instances increased.

                   Recommendation 1:     In conjunction with FEMA, the functions and operations of the HLT
                                         must be reviewed and refined. The results should be briefed at the
                                         National Hurricane Conference and other suitable forums. FEMA
                                         representatives are encouraged to take an active role in the
                                         Interdepartmental Hurricane Conferences.

                   Finding 2:            There are insufficient HLT members to support speciality functions
                                         (electronics, communications) to avoid burnout, turnover and absences
                                         due to sickness, annual leave, etc.

                   Recommendation 2:     As part of the NWS/FEMA review, the specific tasks of the HLT
                                         members must be outlined and an adequate resource pool identified.
                                         The NOAA/NWS Hurricane Conference should be the forum for
                                         discussing and validating HLT mission, membership and other
                                         requirements.

                   Finding 3:            Hardware required to support the HLT is extensive and requires
                                         significant time and effort to set up.

                   Recommendation 3:     FEMA must provide a complete set of instructions that will assist in the
                                         set-up process. Additionally, FEMA and NHC should identify electronic
                                         specialist(s) who can set up and test the equipment prior to the arrival of
                                         the HLT. Given the location of the NHC on the Florida International
                                         University campus, NHC could explore the possibility of involving
                                         university resources to assist in the process.

                                                              xii

                Finding 4a:           There was no single communication system used to brief state
                                      emergency management officials. This led to confusion among the
                                      EMCs.

                Finding 4b-           NHC was required to conduct multiple briefings when more than one
                                      state was impacted by Hurricane Bertha. This proved to be extremely
                                      time consuming for the hurricane specialists.

                Finding 4c:           During teleconferences established by the HLT, the local NWS offices
                                      were not always involved.

                Finding 4d:           Several times local emergency managers were tied into state and
                                      regional briefings coordinated through the HLT. The locals would then
                                      be brought into a local conference call with their state and local NWS
                                      offices. This was repetitive and not a good use of the local emergency
                                      managers limited time.

                Finding 4e:           NHC briefing calls to North Carolina state emergency management
                                      officials frequently came at times when these individuals were already in
                                      the midst of a briefing by the NWSFO or with local emergency
                                      management officials along the coast.

                Recommendation 4:     FEMA and the NWS must ensure that coordination methodologies and
                                      protocols are firmly established before the next hurricane season. The
                                      local NWS office(s) must be included in all NHC state conference calls
                                      to add local expertise and to prepare for their coordination calls with
                                      local emergency managers.

                Finding 5a:           The Modernization and Restructuring (MAR) of the NWS has created a
                                      greater need for internal forecast coordination as the number of forecast
                                      offices has increased.

                Finding 5b:           As Hurricane Bertha approached the Delmarva region,confusion arose
                                      when the wind forecasts from two NWS offices for adjacent forecast
                                      areas were significantly different.

                Recommendation 5:     The NWS needs to move quickly to establish an internal coordination
                                      mechanism.

                                                           xiii

                    Finding 6:               Some EMCs are having problems receiving weather information. NWR
                                             coverage is incomplete and NWWS is too costly for some EMCs.
                                             Computer bulletin boards and the Internet received high praise.

                    Recommendation 6:        The NWS should continue to seek partnerships to expand NWR
                                             coverage in support of the Gore initiative and target resources to ensure
                                             reliable programming and maintenance of the new systems. The &WS
                                             must actively support implementation of EMWIN and seek additional
                                             partnerships to ensure its availability from multiple sources. EMCs
                                             should be reminded of other resources, such as the free redistribution of
                                             NWWS from their state distribution point and the use of Packet Radio.

                    Finding 7a:              A number of offices noted a truncation of some of the more lengthy
                                             Hurricane Local Statements (HLS) on The Weather Channel (TWC).
                                             Moreover, it was also noted that some of the Short Term Forecasts
                                             (NOW) were cut off at six, as opposed to eight lines. This premature
                                             truncation of the HLS and NOW resulted in critical information not
                                             being passed on to the vie w'er.

                    Finding 7b               The "segmented" HLS format used by NWSFO San Juan marked an
                                             improvement over their HLSs issued during Hurricane Marilyn.

                    Finding 7c:              NWSFO San Juan's NOWs were informative, but some of them tended
                                             toward the radar narrative summary style of writing.

                    Recommendation 7:        OM needs to work with TWC to resolve the truncation issue. All offices
                                             should be reminded of the NOW's primary function, to serve as a
                                             forecast of future conditions and impacts rather than a summary of past
                                             events.

                    Finding 8:               Potentially valuable meteorological data was lost when the St. Croix and
                                             St. Thomas ASOS units were powered down when the FAA abandoned
                                             their towers.

                    Recommendation 8:        NWS and FAA officials should ensure that ASOS units remain in
                                             service during the approach of a tropical cyclone.

                                                                    xiv

                 Finding 9:               Rip currents associated with Bertha resulted in 3 deaths and over
                                          100 rescues along the Florida and southeast Georgia coasts. Heavy surf
                                          advisories were canceled before two of the deaths occurred. Lack of
                                          data off the southeast Florida coast forced forecasters to estimate wave
                                          heights from local wind forecasts.

                 Recommendation 9:        NWSFO Miami must redouble their efforts at seeking partnerships with
                                          Beach Patrol units and other organizations to secure critical wave height
                                          and surf reports.

                 Finding 10:              Hurricane specialists were urged to change the location of watches and
                                          warnings. This was exemplified when Bertha's slow northward turn
                                          resulted in Florida State officials requesting NHC to post watches on the
                                          Florida coast when hurricane specialists felt that this was unnecessary.

                 Recommendation 10:       NHC needs to remain sensitive to unique and special situations that
                                          occur which emergency managers must resolve during hurricane threats.
                                          State officials have the authority to issue mandatory evacuations for
                                          vulnerable coastal areas even when NHC may feel that meteorological
                                          conditions do not justify issuing hurricane watches or warnings. The
                                          NWS and FEMA need to expand the present hurricane course for
                                          emergency managers and should develop a distance learning approach to
                                          the present NHC resident course. As a part of this course, a module
                                          should be developed for NWS personnel at both the NHC and at local
                                          offices to ensure that they fully appreciate emergency manager
                                          requirements.

                 Finding 11:              The NHC was requested to release forecast points early.

                 Recommendation 11:       NHC should not release forecast points prior to completion of forecast
                                          coordination. If the meteorology changes significantly and unexpectedly
                                          between the 6 hourly advisory forecasts, then NHC will issue a special
                                          advisory. However, in truly unique circumstances, some coordination on
                                          trends and changes from the previous forecast can be discussed with the
                                          local NWSO and NWSFO so they can brief state or local EMCs prior to
                                          the issuance of the new forecast. There is also a continuing need to
                                          educate emergency managers and other customers about hurricane
                                          forecasts and products and the uncertainties related to these products.

                                                                 xv

                     Finding 12:               Hurricane strike probabilities are still not fully understood by state and
                                               local EMCs and are being misrepresented by the media. These
                                               probabilities are especially confusing when a hurricane is paralleling the
                                               coast.

                     Recommendation 12:        The NWS and FEMA should develop new educational materials related
                                               to the use of hurricane strike probabilities as well as the use of forecasts
                                               and forecast uncertainties in the decision-making process. This should
                                               be included in the residence training at NHC as well as in distance
                                               learning modules for emergency managers. These materials should also
                                               be provided to coastal WCMs for outreach efforts to the local media.
                                               Similarly, NHC should investigate better ways of graphically depicting
                                               forecasts and forecast uncertainties.

                     Finding 13:               Many NWS offices par    ticipate in post-storm local-level evaluations and
                                               critiques, usually led by the WCM and/or the MIC.

                     Recommendation 13:        This practice of local self-evaluation should be encouraged at all NWS
                                               offices, coastal or otherwise.

                                                       NCEP Implementation
                                             (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

                     Finding 14:               The Internet has become very popular, and the information available
                                               over the Internet from NHC received very favorable comments.
                                               Naturally, when the hurricane was close to land, access to the NHC
                                               Homepage was difficult.

                     Recommendation 14:        NHC should investigate the possibility of increasing their Internet
                                               capabilities.

                     Finding 15:               The NHC rarely sought input from the SPC nor made attempts to ensure
                                               that the SPC was "on the line" during the hotline coordination. As a
                                               result, field offices that were concerned with the tornado threat were
                                               never sure that the SPC was on the line although the SPC makes it a
                                               practice to monitor the line continuously.

                     Recommendation 15:        The NHC should include the SPC in its roll call list for coordinating
                                               advisories when a tropical cyclone threatens the U.S. mainland. In
                                               addition, the NHC should make it a point to invite comments from the
                                               SPC in such situations.

                                                                       xvi

                                              Regional Implementation

                Finding 16a:            Due to the remoteness of the location, the San Juan WSR-88D RDA
                                        does not utilize commercial power.

                Finding 16b:            The RDA's emergency generator produces an electric current with
                                        irregular frequency fluctuations.

                Recommendation 16:      Officials from the SRH and Puerto Rico emergency management should
                                        encourage the FAA to develop a plan for supplying the WSR-88D with
                                        stable commercial power and with stable, reliable emergency generator
                                        power.

                 Finding 17:            The lack of reliable redissernination systems caused some delay in the
                                        receipt of weather products necessary to the emergency management
                                        decision-making process in Delaware. The use of the fax blast was not
                                        always reliable.

                Recommendation 17: ERH should work with FEMA Region 3 and WSH to resolve this issue.

                                                              xvii

                                                         Chapter 1

                                       Service Assessment Summary

                 Operations of the Hurricane Liaison Team

                 Traditionally, local emergency managers from Florida, as well as some FEMA regional
                 personnel, volunteered to work at NHC to field calls from local emergency managers and to keep
                 FEMA national and regional offices apprised of the evolving situation from an emergency
                 management perspective. The 1996 hurricane season was the first real effort to formalize the
                 ad hoc process and make it more of a functioning unit. This resulted from the highly active
                 1995 hurricane season where it became evident that something had to be done to take some of the
                 external pressure off of the NHC hurricane specialists. Accordingly, the HLT was formed at the
                 request of the State of Florida, FEMA and the NWS. The HLT was first activated during
                 Hurricane Bertha. Since this was the first official activation, some of its purpose and function
                 were not clearly understood by all of the parties involved. It was expected that the HLT could
                 relieve some of the external demands placed on the hurricane specialist. During Bertha, this was
                 not the case. In fact, the workload was even greater due to the number of briefings that required
                 participation of a specialist. The HLT concept is still under development and its functions and
                 operations are being reviewed. A major concern is to ensure that the HLT does not detract from
                 local emergency managers contacts with their local NWS offices and WCMs.

                 Prior to the start of the 1996 hurricane season, individuals were identified and chosen who had
                 the necessary skills and expertise. After working Hurricane Bertha, the team realized that, given
                 the extended hours that are required and the possibility of a team member(s) being unavailable, a
                 sufficient number of skilled people were not identified to fill these positions.

                 In addition to staffing, a unique set of hardware is required to meet the operational requirements
                 of the HLT. Since the equipment was not prepositioned and there was no dedicated electronics
                 expert assigned to assemble the hardware, some time was lost setting up the equipment.

                 The video conferencing between NHC and FEMA Headquarters ensured that FEMA senior
                 management and all organizations supporting the Federal Response Plan had the necessary
                 information to be proactive, making timely response actions. Video conferences were scheduled
                 twice a day for the Director of FEMA and were accomplished with minimal problems.

                    State and Local Coordination

                    Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina -- Unlike FEMA Headquarters and NHC, most state
                    EMCs currently do not have video conference capability but expressed a willingness to add this
                    technology. However, due to high costs, video conferencing is not affordable to NWS field
                    offices. Most briefings are done via voice only with each state using differing communication
                    conferencing systems to speak to the NHC. Some use the National Warning System (NAWAS);
                    others, such as Florida, have their own conference systems with a line to NHC. Some of the
                    conference calls were done on NAWAS while others were made through existing Federal and
                    state teleconference systems but established by government operators. The South Carolina EMC
                    missed an NHC briefing since they were not sure whether the call was on NAWAS or some other
                    system.

                    NHC and the states agreed that a universal conferencing system needs to be established as
                    coordination is too difficult with multiple systems. A single system would also help decrease the
                    workload for the hurricane specialist as all state EMCs could be conferenced together and briefed
                    at once. Local NWS offices stated they were not always tied into conference calls between the
                    state EMCs and the NHC.

                    During Hurricane Bertha, many of the local EMCs were tied into HLT briefings along with their
                    state EMCs. After this briefing, they would then participate in another conference call, involving
                    EMCs in the local area, the state EMC and the local NWS. In survey team discussions with local
                    emergency managers, they expressed little interest in talking directly with NHC. They would
                    rather be tied into a telephone conference call with their surrounding EMCs and local NWS
                    office. They assume the state and local NWS offices will talk with the NHC and pass
                    information to them during their local conference call.

                    In interviewing local emergency managers, the survey team was told NWWS continues to prove
                    too expensive for local EMCs with limited funding. The EMWIN was discussed and could prove
                    to be a viable alternative for users who currently have no level of support or can afford very little.
                    North Carolina officials note that the NWR is still not available in some areas along their
                    coastline.

                    The use of Internet is increasing and South Carolina and North Carolina are using the Internet as
                    one method to access the latest information. However, when Bertha approached the coastline,
                    the Internet connection to the NHC was difficult or impossible to get.

                    Delaware and Maryland -- NAWAS was used as the primary communication and coordination
                    tool by Mt. Holly NWSFO during events of Hurricane Bertha. Delaware Emergency
                    Management Agency (DEMA) felt the support provided during Hurricane Bertha did not meet
                    the level of support provided prior to the policy change. The use of a single conference call by
                    several NWS offices for coordination among multiple states, as well as the loss of access to the

                                                                      2

                 26 local municipalities on the DEMA bridge, was a major concern. Subsequent work between
                 the OM, ERH and DEMA has found an equitable resolution using the DEMA bridge.

                 Delaware does not have an effective mechanism in place for the redistribution of both national
                 and local weather information and guidance. This put county and municipal emergency
                 managers at a disadvantage as they had no hard copies of NWS watches, warnings and
                 statements. This forced coordination calls to be longer as they became a dissemination
                 mechanism rather than a coordination tool. Delaware officials also noted several occasions
                 where wind forecasts issued for adjacent areas by different NWSFOs were significantly different
                 which caused confusion and raised the anxiety of many local emergency managers.

                 NWS Operations

                 As Hurricane Bertha paralleled the coast, it had the potential to make its initial landfall anywhere
                 from Florida to North Carolina. This put extreme pressure on NHC as well as the state EMCs.
                 Although NHC's forecast tracks for Bertha proved to be quite accurate, state EMCs urged NHC
                 to change the location and timing of watches and warnings and to release the forecast tracks
                 early. This caused tension between NHC and their external users. The state EMCs.thought their
                 input and concerns were being ignored while NHC felt that they were being second guessed on
                 their meteorology.

                 While the states agreed NHC is the technical leader and the recognized expert, the EMCs
                 continue to emphasize that watches and warnings are not purely a meteorological call but must
                 also consider emergency response and public safety. The states agree they have the authority to
                 issue mandatory evacuations for vulnerable coastal areas. They said that despite their efforts to
                 motivate people, the public will often not respond to recommendations or evacuation information
                 unless there is a watch or warning in effect.

                 Graphical representation of hurricane strike probabilities can be a useful tool, however, it was
                 noticed during Bertha that these graphics were not fully understood by the public or the EMCs.
                 In some cases, it lead to misinformation, and in others the media was incorrectly depicting strike
                 probabilities. While strike probabilities work well with storms that strike the coast
                 perpendicularly, they were confusing when a storm parallels the coast.

                                                                  3

                                                         Chapter 2

                                               National Perspectives

                 National Hurricane Center

                 Synoptic History

                 Hurricane Bertha originated from a tropical wave which moved from Africa to the Atlantic on
                 July 1, 1996. A weak circulation was first detected on satellite imagery on July 3, centered about
                 575 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. The track of the
                 circulation center begins on July 5, when the circulation is believed to have reached the surface
                 and become a tropical depression in the central tropical Atlantic. This track is displayed in
                 Figure I and listed in Appendix B, Table 1.

                 Bertha followed a fairly smooth curved path around the western periphery of the Atlantic
                 subtropical high pressure ridge. This ridge changed little during Bertha's existence, and a weak
                 mid-level trough persisted in the western North Atlantic. For three days, the depression moved
                 toward the west-northwest at the fast forward speed of 23 to 29 mph. It strengthened to a
                 hurricane with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 86 mph on July 8 as the center moved
                 across the Leeward and Virgin Islands of the northeastern Caribbean. The center moved between
                 Antigua and Barbuda at 2 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time. (AST) (0600 Coordinated Universal Time
                 [UTCI) on July 8, across St. Barthelemy, Anguilla and St. Martin, just north of St. Thomas, and
                 over the British Virgin Islands by 2 p.m. AST (1800 UTC).

                 The track gradually turned northwestward on July 9 as maximum sustained winds reached
                 115 mph at 2 a.m. AST (0600 UTC). Bertha was centered 138 miles north of Puerto Rico at this
                 time but earlier passed within 35 miles of the island. Since the strongest winds were located in
                 the northeast quadrant of the hurricane, most of Puerto Rico experienced only tropical storm
                 conditions. The exception is the Puerto Rican island of Culebra, where hurricane-force winds are
                 believed to have occurred.

                 Moving northwestward at a slower forward speed of 17 to 23 mph, the center of Bertha moved
                 parallel to the Bahama Islands, passing 45 to 70 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands,
                 San Salvador, Eleuthera and the Abacos. Again, the strongest winds were located to the
                 northeast of the center, but 75-mph sustained winds might have reached some of the above
                 mentioned islands.

                 Continuing on its gradual turn, the track became north-northwestward on July 10 and I I as the
                 center moved parallel to the coast of Florida and Georgia at a distance of 170 to 200 miles

                                                                  5

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                 offshore. During this time, the forward speed slowed to about 9 mph. Moving northward and re-
                 .accelerating to a forward speed of 17 mph, Bertha made landfall at 4 p.m. EDT (2000 UTC) on
                 July 12 on the coast of North Carolina. At landfall, Bertha was a Category 2 storrn on the Saffir-
                 Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Appendix A) as the center crossed the coast midway between
                 Wrightsville and Topsail Beaches. The hurricane had been gradually weakening since its top
                 speed of 115 mph on July 9 to 81 mph on July 11. Then, 12 hours before landfall, the estimated
                 maximum 1 -minute winds increased to 104 mph. Bertha quickly dropped below hurricane
                 strength when it moved inland over eastern North Carolina. Bertha then moved northeastward
                 along the U.S. east coast, producing 45 to 60 mph sustained winds over land from northern North
                 Carolina to New England. Over the nearby Atlantic, 70 mph winds were the rule. Bertha was
                 declared extratropical on July 14 when the center moved from the Maine coast to New
                 Brunswick, Canada. The extratropical storm brought 45 to 60 mph winds to the Canadian
                 Maritime Provinces and was tracked to just south of Greenland on July 17.

                 Meteorological Statistics

                 Figures 2 and 3 show a plot, versus time, of the various data used to estimate the minimum
                 central sea-level pressure and the maximum 1 -minute wind speed 33 feet above ground.
                 Included are data from reconnaissance aircraft and satellite Dvorak-technique wind speed
                 estimates. Appendix B, Table 2, lists selected surface observations of lowest pressure, peak
                 wind, storm surge and rainfall values. Appendix B, Table 3, lists ship reports of 39 mph or
                 greater that were associated with Bertha. The minimum pressure of 960 mb occurred at 2 a.m.
                 EDT (0600 UTC) on July 9 and is based on a dropsonde measurement. The best track maximum
                 sustained wind speed of 115 mph at the same time is based on a 700-mb flight-level wind speed
                 of 140 mph, measured 22 miles east-northeast of the center.

                 Observations are incomplete from the Leeward and Virgin Islands, but because the circular
                 eyewall was 20 to 35 miles across, it is believed that hurricane conditions with sustained wind
                 speeds to 86 mph could have occurred on Antigua, Barbuda, Nevis, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy,
                 Anguilla, St. Martin, and from St. Thomas northward through the U.S. and British Virgin
                 Islands. Experience with Hurricane Marilyn in 1995 suggests that even higher sustained winds
                 can occur over mountainous terrain as is found on many of these islands. Winds 40 to 45 mph
                 were experienced over portions of Puerto Rico as indicated by the San Juan observations in
                 Appendix B, Table 2.

                 A reconnaissance aircraft flight level wind speed of 127 mph in the northeast quadrant of the
                 circulation several hours before landfall is the basis for estimating sustained surface winds of
                 104 mph on the coast at landfall. The lowest sea-level pressure observed at landfall was 977 mb
                 at Surf City, North Carolina, and a value of 974 mb is assumed to be the minimum pressure at
                 landfall.

                                                               7

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                                         3     4      5    6      7     9      9          11     L2    13      14
                                                         DATE-TIME CUTC)
                                   Figure 2:   Curve of minimum central sea-level pressure versus time.

                                 Uft

                                         87/03-07/14/96

                                         OZAT CTSM30
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                                         3      4     5     6     7      a     9    is     11    J.2    13     14
                                                         DATE-TIME (UTC). -
                                         Figure 3: Curve of maximum ]-minute speed versus time.
                                                                                 1.

                                                                      8

                  Coastal storm surge flood heights, from Florida through New England, ranged from I to 4 feet,
                  but values to 5 feet were estimated on the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout.
                  A storm surge of 6 feet or a little higher was indicated near Swansboro, where 5 to 6 feet of water
                  was "inside of businesses on the waterfront" (from Newport, North Carolina, National Weather
                  Service Forecast Office Preliminary Storm Report). Values were forecast to be between 4-6 feet.

                  Six tornadoes (four in Virginia, one in North Carolina and one in Maryland) have been
                  confirmed during the passage of an outer rain band.

                  Casualty and Damage Statistics

                  There were 12 deaths related to Hurricane Bertha. Four in Florida included one from an
                  evacuating military jet crashing into a house and three drownings from rip currents and high surf.
                  Two deaths were reported in North Carolina (automobile accident and rip current drowning),
                  while one surfer died in New Jersey. In Puerto Rico, one death occurred in an automobile
                  accident and another died while surfing. On the French half of St. Martin, one person was
                  electrocuted and another drowned after falling off a boat.

                  The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, has been declared a Federal disaster area.
                  Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For
                  many, it was a second hit in the 10 months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area.

                  It is likely that there was beach erosion on the north coast of the Dominican Republic as Bertha
                  passed to the north. The Bahamas were also affected by the weak side of the hurricane, but there
                  are no damage figures available from either of these locations.

                  The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and mostly due to storm surge
                  flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops.
                  A survey indicated more than 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. FEMA
                  estimated 250,000 persons evacuated in South and North Carolina. Minor wind damage and
                  flooding also spread along the path of the storm all the way to New England.

                  The -Insurance Institute estimates $135 million in insured property damage, primarily along
                  coastal North Carolina. A conservative ratio between total damage and insured property damage,
                  compared to past land-falling hurricanes, is two to one. This would increase the total U.S.
                  damage estimate to $270 million. No figures are available from the Caribbean.

                  Warning and Forecast Critique

                  Bertha moved on a fairly smooth track. The average official track forecast errors for Bertha
                  ranged from 92 miles at 24 hours (32 cases) to 169 miles at 48 hours (29 cases) to 258 miles at

                                                                  9

                   72 hours (27 cases). These errors are 15 percent or more lower than the previous 10-year
                   averages of the official track errors and are from 15 to 40 percent lower than the CLIPER
                   forecast errors for the same cases.

                   Overall, the track model guidance also performed very well. However, the 8 p.m. EDT (0000
                   UTC) Aviation Model run on July 9, when Bertha was located just north of Puerto Rico,
                   inexplicably showed the track recurving significantly further east than the previous run. All of
                   the track guidance models that use the Aviation Model as a background environment also
                   showed a similar track. This resulted in rather large official track forecast errors on July 9, with a
                   705-mile, 72-hour error on the 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) forecast. The Aviation Model and some
                   of the track guidance models recovered to an excellent forecast only 12 hours later. Fortunately,
                   this guidance problem occurred three days prior to landfall in North Carolina and did not have a
                   significant impact on U.S. warnings or on warnings for the Bahamas.

                   Appendix B, Table 4, lists the various watches and warnings that were issued. Hurricane
                   warnings were issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Chincoteague, Virginia, as well as for the
                   Bahamas and for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea from Antigua through Puerto
                   Rico. Tropical storm warnings were issued from Sebastian Inlet to north of Deerfield Beach,
                   Florida, and from north of Chincoteague to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. Almost all of the U.S. east
                   coast was involved with some watch or warning which is the result of the storm track's expected
                   close passage to the southeast U.S. coast. The hurricane watch for the North Carolina landfall
                   area was issued 65 hours before landfall, and the hurricane warning was issued 47 hours before
                   landfall. This is far more than the 36- and 24-hour lead times that the NHC strives for and is the
                   result of the forward motion decreasing at a faster rate than expected.

                   User Response

                   For about 2 days, Bertha aimed at the north-central Florida east coast. During that time, all of the
                   NWS track guidance models were predicting a turn to the north, near 76 degrees west. This was
                   uncomfortably close to some of Florida's barrier islands and Cape Kennedy which have
                   evacuation times exceeding 24 hours. At I I p.m. EDT on July 9 and again during the early
                   morning hours of July 10, the State of Florida emergency management officials requested that
                   NHC post a hurricane watch for the northern parts of their east coast, but NHC hurricane
                   specialists felt that this was premature. On July 10, the governor issued mandatory evacuation
                   notices at 10 a.m. EDT, and NHC put up hurricane warnings at 11 a.m. EDT for the state, north
                   of Sebastian Inlet. Early that afternoon, Bertha began its recurvature toward the north in close
                   agreement with the guidance models.

                   Similarly, South Carolina state officials became concerned about possible nighttime evacuations
                   on the evening of July 10 and were in great need of the latest information prior to the I I p.m.
                   coordination call. The governor wanted to make a decision whether or not to order mandatory
                   evacuations before the 11 p.m. news. Working and coordinating closely with NWSFO

                                                                   10

                Columbia, NHC was called at 7:30 p.m. EDT on July 10, requesting additional forecast track
                information. This request was received more than an hour before the hurricane specialist was to
                begin preparing the next forecast. The hurricane specialist and the HLT provided intermediate
                information on Bertha's location and strength, however, NHC could not release any track and
                intensity forecasts until the next NWS hurricane hotline call at 10 p.m. EDT, at which time the
                track and intensity forecasts would be coordinated and agreed upon. The HLT believed they kept
                state officials well informed regarding Bertha from an emergency management perspective.

                Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

                Meteorology of Heavy Rainfall

                Hurricane Bertha made landfall on the North Carolina coast on July 12 and was downgraded to a
                tropical storm shortly thereafter. The storm accelerated north-northeastward across coastal
                sections of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast United States prior to moving off the eastern New
                England coast late on July 13. Precipitable water values increased significantly to values in
                excess of 2 inches along the Eastern Seaboard as deep layered easterly flow developing in
                advance of the storm advected tropical moisture inland. Heavy rain occurred from the eastern
                Carolinas to Maine with many locations receiving 2- to 4-inch amounts (see Figure 4). Coastal
                North Carolina and southeast New York had isolated reports of over a half foot of rain. Amounts
                could have been much greater had Bertha's rapid motion not acted to limit rainfall duration.

                Guidance Products

                Primary guidance that aided HPC forecasters included varied output from numerical models
                (Geophysical Fluids Dynamical Lab [GFDL] model, Aviation Model [AVN], ETA Model
                [ETA], Nested Grid Model [NGM], Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
                [NOGAPS], Medium-range Forecast Model [MRF], the MRF ensemble package, Medium-range
                Forecast Model Experimental [MRFX], European Center for Medium Range Weather
                Forecasting [ECMWF], United Kingdom Meteorological Office [UKMET], meso-ETA, NHC
                hurricane models, etc.), satellite imagery (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
                [GOES]-8/9 Visible [VIS], Infrared [IR], Water vapor [WV], and Special Sensor Microwave
                Imagery [SSMI] microwave data), NEXRAD data, surface and upper-air observations and
                aircraft reconnaissance data.

                Model output was varied. While all models correctly indicated the potential for heavy rainfall
                over the eastern United States, the AVN forecast a Bertha track and associated quantitative
                precipitation forecast (QPF) that was shifted farther to the west than the ETA or NGM. The
                AVN track implied that a significant upslope rain event was imminent in the favored upslope
                region on the eastern side of Appalachian Mountains. The ETA and NGM supported a heavy
                rainfall event farther to the east. Weather pattern recognition and upper-air data analysis

                   combined with trends from satellite imagery and radar to prompt HPC forecasters to prefer a
                   solution close to but wetter than that depicted by the ETA. Subsequent observations deemed that
                   our model assessments were on the right track.

                   HPC staff produced an array of graphic products and accompanying narratives.      These products
                   provided an assessment of guidance and an excellent forecast of quantitative precipitation, flash
                   flood potential and the sea level pressure pattern from current conditions up to five days
                   (see Figures 5-7).

                   Internal Coordination

                   HPC forecasters participated in at least four regularly scheduled hurricane coordination calls each
                   day that included verbal input from NHC, SPC, MPC, WFO's, WSH, SRH, ERH, Naval Atlantic
                   Meteorology and Oceanography Center at Norfolk, Virginia, and the Naval Meteorology and
                   Oceanography Facility at Jacksonville, Florida. Information discussed included Bertha's forecast
                   strength and track from zero to five days and associated QPFs. Routine coordination calls were
                   also performed with.FEMA.

                   Marine Prediction Center

                   Marine Meteorology

                   As Bertha moved along the east coast recurving across the Maritimes and then well out to sea, it
                   created significant marine meteorological conditions for an extensive segment of the MPC High
                   Seas area of responsibility. The most notable conditions are chronicled below.

                   0   As Bertha passed near the Bahamas on July 10 at 8 a.m. AST (1200 UTC), well before the
                       center entered MPC's area, 13-foot southerly swells had propagated as far north as 34N west
                       of 69W.

                   E   On July I I at 8 a.m. AST (1200 UTC), while hurricane and tropical storm force winds
                       remained south of 32N, the southern limit of the MPC forecast area, seas increased to 20 feet
                       over the area south of 34N west of 70W. Near gale force winds extended out to 520 miles
                       over the north semicircle.

                       By July 12 at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Bertha had crossed 32N, approaching the
                       coast of the Carolinas. Packing maximum sustained winds of 104 mph, the storm generated a
                       maximum wave height estimated at 39 feet just south of Frying Pan Shoals.

                       On July 13, Bertha moved inland across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia,
                       weakening to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 52 mph and gusts to 63 mph at 8 a.m.
                       EDT (1200 UTC). Winds near tropical storm force and 13-foot seas also occurred within 485
                       miles from the center.

                                                                    12

                 TOTAL PRECIPITATION (inches)
                                 and
                  PATH OF HURRICANE BERTHA                                2
                           July 12 - 13, 1996

                                                                 T.           4

                                                            4

                                          2
                                                       4

                                              41           CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
                                            2                         and
                                                          NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

                                               Figure 4

                                                  13

                                              25
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                            50

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                                          j

                  �   By July 14 at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), Bertha had lost most of its tropical characteristics and
                      was declared extratropical, becoming the sole responsibility of the MPC. Located along the
                      New Brunswick coast, storm force winds to 63 mph and seas to 20 feet occurred within 495
                      miles over the southeast semicircle. Gale force winds and seas to 16 feet extended out to 620
                      miles over the southeast semicircle and 345 miles over the northwest semicircle.

                  �   On July 15 at 8 p.m. EDT (0000 UTC), former Bertha was downgraded from an extratropical
                      storm to a gale, still packing winds to 52 mph with seas to 18 feet southeast of the center.

                  �   As the low mov  *ed northeast across the open ocean, gale warnings were continued until
                      July 17 at 2 a.m. EDT (0600 UTC). Through its final weakening stages as a gale from
                      Newfoundland to just south of Cape Farewell, an extensive area of 13- to 21 -foot seas
                      continued east and south of the center.

                  Forecast and Guidance Products

                  MPC forecast and analysis products are routinely broadcast to ships at sea. This is done through
                  the U.S. Coast Guard high frequency communication facilities. The products consist of high seas
                  text bulletins and graphic surface analysis and forecast products. In addition, voice broadcasts of
                  warnings and forecasts which originate at the MPC are broadcast over station WWV, Boulder,
                  Colorado. Although all of these products are produced according to a regular schedule, they all
                  contain warning and forecast information as provided in the official TPC bulletin.

                  The frequency of transmission for these products is every 6 hours and is based on the synoptic
                  reporting times (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC).

                  Coordination

                  Coordination took place using the Hurricane Hotline or through telephone calls. TPC's
                  conference calls were routinely monitored and telephone calls to TPC's Tropical Analysis and
                  Forecast Branch were made for purposes of coordination. In anticipation of the system becoming
                  extratropical and to cover expected conditions in offshore waters, MPC provided input for
                  adjustments of TPC's tropical force wind/12-foot seas radius as the storm crossed north of 32N
                  prior to making landfall along the southern North Carolina coast. The input was accepted and
                  incorporated into the advisory.

                                                                   15

                   Storm Prediction Center

                   Forecast and Guidance Products

                   Tornado watches associated with Bertha (see Appendix D).

                   Tornado Watch            issue (CDT)            valid          end
                     764                    12/9:37 a.m.           10:00 a.m.     7:00 p.m.
                     765                    12/1:36 p.m.           2:00 p.m.      7:00 p.m.
                     768                    12/6:16 p.m.           7:00 p.m.      4:00 a.m.
                     770                    12/11:41 p.m.          midnight       7:00 a.m.
                     771                    13/3:00 a.m.           3:15 a.m.      10:00 a.m. (replaced 768 and 770)
                     772                    13/12:20 p.m.          12:45 p.m.     7:00 p.m.

                   Mesoscale Meteorology and Coordination

                   The SPC participated in all hurricane hotline discussions concerning Bertha during its lifetime,
                   however, this was due to the fact that SPC forecasters were monitoring the hotline. NHC failed
                   to roll call the SPC nor did it invite input from the SPC. NHC should include the SPC in its roll
                   call list for coordinating advisories when a tropical cyclone threatens the U.S. mainland. During
                   the 10 a.m. EDT coordination on July 12, the SPC forecaster commented that the tornado threat
                   for the east coast was increasing and that he should probably issue a tornado watch (the first in a
                   series). The hurricane specialist suggested that the SPC handle the details off-line with the
                   individuals involved, and that he would mention -the possibility of tornadoes in the next bulletin.
                   After the hotline call ended, the SPC forecaster called the offices in Raleigh, North Carolina, and
                   Columbia, South Carolina, to coordinate the tornado watch (No. 764) which extended from
                   northeastern South Carolina into southeastern and east-central North Carolina.

                   During the course of the morning and early afternoon, several tornado warnings were issued in
                   North Carolina with some occurring near the western and northern boundaries of the watch.
                   Damage was reported with a thunderstorm near Raleigh. Since there was a strong surface high to
                   the north (1026 mb center), the resulting pressure gradient was producing relatively strong low
                   level flow (and shear) well to the north of the tropical storm center. Further, instability along and
                   east of a surface trough extending from eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia had
                   reached moderate values. These factors raised the concern that the tornado threat would be
                   developing northward along and east of the trough line during the afternoon hours and that a
                   watch would be needed northward from the original watch into southeastern Virginia. To make
                   it simpler for the NWSFOs and NWSOs, the ending time 8 p.m. EDT (0000 UTC) was chosen to
                   be the same as that with the original watch. The SPC forecaster called NWSFOs Raleigh, North
                   Carolina, and Sterling, Virginia, to propose the new watch (No. 765). SPC mentioned that there
                   was rotation with a cell on the Virginia/North Carolina border and that NWSO Wakefield,
                   Virginia, had issued a tornado warning as a result. All agreed to the watch although Sterling was

                                                                     16

                  a little hesitant. On several occasions, the SPC noted that it is apparent that during hazardous
                  weather events when staffs at local offices are busiest, it can be difficult for them to stay abreast
                  of evolving and immediate post-weather events in nearby NWSFOs/NWSOs areas of
                  responsibility. Later in the evening, tornado watch Nos. 768 and 770 were issued as the tropical
                  system tracked north.

                  By early Saturday morning, July 13, the main east-west "spiral band" of isolated supercells which
                  was over northern Virginia continued northward and had reached a northern Maryland/southern
                  New Jersey line by around daybreak. Two rotating storms on the far western end of this activity
                  were edging dangerously close to the western edge of the previous weather watch and nearing the
                  eastern suburbs of Washington, D.C. Therefore, upon consultation with NWSFOs Sterling,
                  Virginia; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and New York City, New York, the SPC forecaster decided
                  to issue a new watch (No. 77 1) which covered a bit more of the "western shore" region of the
                  Chesapeake Bay. Shortly after the watch was issued, a new thunderstorm began to rotate along
                  the same spiral band which had produced the rotating storms east of Washington. This latter cell
                  moved right across Baltimore and prompted a tornado warning from Sterling, but no tornadoes
                  were reported.

                  During the coordination call for Tornado Watch No. 77 1, NWSFO Philadelphia had no trouble
                  accepting the watch as there had already been isolated rotating storms over Delaware Bay earlier.
                  These storrns were well in advance of the Virginia/Maryland spiral band. On the other hand,
                  NWSFO New York City really didn't want the watch (No. 77 1), but they were unaware of the
                  fact that isolated supercells had been occurring as close to them as Delaware Bay earlier. There
                  was good agreement with NWSFO Boston, Massachusetts, to the effect that any tornado threat in
                  New England would be delayed for a while due to the presence of cooler/drier air near the
                  surface (dew points were in the 60s vs. low to mid 70s in Maryland). As has been pointed out in
                  several instances, the long standing procedures of watch coordination with field offices were, in
                  general, effective. The coordination process provided the field with opportunities to contribute
                  and, in most cases, coming to a consensus was not a problem. The SPC also noted the ability to
                  dial into the WSR-88Ds that were being affected proved to be a valuable tool in assessing the
                  tornado threat from Bertha.

                                                                   17

                                                           Chapter 3

                                                Regional Perspectives

                   Southern Region

                   0 Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

                   Data Collection

                   WSR-88D

                   Performance of the San Juan WSR-88D, an FAA radar, was acceptable as Bertha moved across
                   the Virgin Islands and north of Puerto Rico. However, as of Saturday, July 6, the radar was
                   inoperative with no apparent plans to return it to service. Representatives from SRH, WSH,
                   Office of Systems Operation, and the Operational Support Facility spent several hours during the
                   evening of July 6 coordinating and attempting to isolate the problem. On the morning of July 7,
                   the FAA electronics technician (ET) had identified the problem as irregular fluctuations in the
                   frequency of the generator used to power the RDA. Due to the remoteness of the site, the RDA
                   does not have commercial power. The permanent fix to the generator's problem was to install an
                   electronic governor on the generator, but this could not be done before Bertha's arrival. The
                   FAA ET would attempt to temporarily stabilize the signal on a short-term basis but could not
                   promise any definite success. The efforts were in fact successful as the WSR-88D remained
                   operational for the duration of the event. Once the scope of the WSR-88D problem was made
                   known to the appropriate FAA representatives, they were cooperative and restored the radar to
                   service as quickly as possible.

                   Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)

                   The ASOS units on St. Thomas and St. Croix functioned normally until Monday, July 8. On the
                   morning of July 8, the control towers at both islands' airports were abandoned. FAA personnel
                   have instructions to power down all equipment, including ASOS, when the towers are
                   abandoned. Thus, no ASOS data were available as the storm impacted the islands, and no
                   official wind or pressure data were available in real-time or after the event. The ASOS at San
                   Juan remained operational, recording a maximum wind gust of 60 mph and a minimum pressure
                   of 996.8 mb.

                                                                    19

                   Warning and Forecast Services

                   NWSFO San Juan began issuing HLSs at 11:20 p.m. AST, Saturday, July 6. The HLSs were
                   issued at 6 hourly intervals through 5 p.m. on July 7, at which time they switched to 3 hourly
                   statements. The statements contained a great deal of information presented in a segmented forrn
                   as recommended by the Hurricane Marilyn Disaster Survey Report. Separate sections of the
                   HLS were used to describe preparedness actions, the storm's position, storm surge, etc. This
                   enabled customers to quickly find information regarding a particular aspect of the storm's threat.
                   As Bertha approached and moved by Puerto Rico, HLSs were composed and disseminated every
                   2 hours. These HLSs were a marked improvement over those issued for Hurricane Marilyn,

                   NOWs were prepared by NWSFO San Juan throughout the event. The NWSFO staff utilized
                   information primarily from the WSR-88D when composing their NOWs. While the NOWs were
                   informative, some of them were written in a style similar to the radar narrative summary (i.e., "At
                   xxx pm ... radar indicated the center of Bertha..."). This had the effect of dating the products and
                   focusing customers' attention to the storm's history rather than its forecast track and impacts.

                   Dissemination and Coordination

                   NWSFO San Juan communicated information regarding Bertha in a variety of ways. The
                   primary d issernination means were NWR and NWWS. Local EMCs and media took an active
                   role in relaying information to the citizens, using methods ranging from facsimile transmissions
                   to live television and radio broadcasts.

                   On St. Thomas, NWR broadcasts are provided through a service contract with radio station
                   WAH. Normally, WAH provides NWR service between 6 a.m. AST and midnight. However,
                   with the approach of Bertha, WAH conducted 24-hour operations from one day before the
                   storm's arrival to two days after Bertha's impact. The St. Thomas office of the Virgin Islands
                   Territory Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA) has the "state" NWWS drop provided by
                   the NWS. The system was operational until mid-afternoon Monday, July 8, when power was lost
                   to the VITEMA facility. The VITEMA-St. Thomas office was in frequent contact with NWSFO
                   San Juan, as coordination calls were held at least five times daily starting on Friday, July 5.

                   On St. Croix, VITEMA officials were still not receiving all NWWS products from the drop on
                   St. Thomas. However, the St. Croix staff obtained the necessary information via coordination
                   calls with the NWSFO San Juan, the Internet, The Weather Channel, and the VIFreenet. The
                   VIFreenet is a free Internet-based service for Virgin Islands citizens. The service is maintained
                   by private sources. VITEMA-St. Croix staff also gathered weather information from the FEMA
                   Region I HF radio network. Although some problems were encountered with the NWWS, the
                   VITEMA-St. Croix staff utilized multiple dissemination methods to receive information
                   regarding Bertha.

                                                                     20

                 Preparedness

                 As in previous -years, the staff at NWSFO San Juan conducted an aggressive hurricane
                 preparedness campaign. From October 1995 through June 1996, the office participated in
                 48 conferences, workshops, seminars, presentations and interviews related to hurricane
                 preparedness. Among these activities was a 2-day workshop, conducted in cooperation with
                 TPC/NHC, for VITEMA officials. The office also conducted an in-house hurricane seminar
                 which was also attended by two members of the VITEMA-St. Croix staff. NWSFO continues
                 their noteworthy preparedness efforts.

                 Customer Response

                 The local media was proactive, especially the print media outlets. The St. Croix Avis, the local
                 newspaper on the island, covered Bertha as their headline story beginning on Saturday, July 6.
                 NWS Public Information Statements documenting preparedness activities were printed in the
                 Sunday and Monday (July 7 and 8) editions. VITEMA officials on both St. Thomas and St.
                 Croix were satisfied with the infon-nation they received during the event, including the forecast
                 track and intensity. Although Bertha was a fast-moving storm as it approached the islands,
                 VITEMA staff and citizens felt they had ample time to prepare. Thus, the VITEMA staff
                 believed that they received better services than during Hurricane Marilyn in 1995.

                    Florida and Georgia

                 Data Collection

                 All of the data collection equipment in place along the Florida and Georgia coasts was
                 operational during the event. The WSR-881), ASOS, upper air equipment, and data buoys
                 performed well throughout Bertha's trip up the east coast.

                 However, NWSFO Miami, Florida, noted a problem with a lack of data off the southeast Florida
                 coast. Without the data, no wave information is available south of Melbourne, Florida. Wave
                 heights can be estimated from local wind forecasts, but no observations of swells are routinely
                 available and no "ground truth" wind/wave data can be accessed by forecasters. The NWSFO
                 Miami WCM has talked to the Beach Patrol units in southeast Florida, asking them to call in
                 rough surf reports to the office. This practice is not consistently done.

                 Warning and Forecast Services

                 All coastal offices issued frequent HLSs for their areas of responsibility. The HLSs roughly
                 coincided with the release of advisory packages or intermediate advisories from TPC/NHC.

                                                               21

                   Because Bertha remained well away from the coastline, none of the Florida coastal offices
                   needed to document the storm's progress in short term forecasts (NOW).

                   During the evening of July 9, Bertha approached southeast Florida and TPC/NHC issued the
                   Tropical Storm Warning from Deerfield Beach, Florida, northward. This was upgraded to a
                   Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet northward during the morning of July 10. NWSFO
                   Miami, NWSO Melbourne, and NWSO Jacksonville, Florida, began issuing HLSs at around
                   midnight on July 10. The HLSs were issued about every 3 hours until the warnings were
                   discontinued (5 p.m. EDT on July 10 for Miami, 5 a.m. on July 11 for Melbourne, and 5 a.m. on
                   July 12 for Jacksonville). Overall, the offices' HLSs were detailed and accurate. In cases where
                   the HLSs were lengthy, a segmented approach was used. As at NWSFO San Juan, the Florida
                   offices' segmented HLSs contained separate paragraphs discussing topics such as the storm
                   itself, evacuation instructions, and tide information. It should be noted that all of Florida's
                   coastal NWS offices issued timely and informative HLSs as Bertha passed offshore.

                   In addition to the HLSs, NWSFO Miami issued heavy surf advisories and statements advising of
                   rough surf conditions and potential strong rip currents through July 12. Unfortunately, one death
                   occurred on July 10 due to a rip current off Jacksonville Beach. Later in the week, due to the
                   lack of wave/swell data from off the southeast coast, the heavy surf advisory was prematurely
                   canceled. Two more people were drowned and more than 100 were rescued along Dade County
                   beaches on July 12 and 13 due to rip currents caused by swells from Bertha. The NWSFO
                   Miami also issued a wind advisory on the morning of July 10 for inland portions of central and
                   southern Florida with winds forecast to 35 mph. The wind advisory was extended to portions of
                   north-central Florida during the late morning of July 10.

                   Internal and External Coordination

                   Although Bertha's meteorological impacts on the Florida and southeast Georgia coasts were
                   minimal in the form of heavy surf and minor beach erosion, the storm was the subject of tense
                   coordination between NHC and the State of Florida EMC. Because the NHC forecasters felt that
                   the storm would turn to the north and eventually to the northeast, no watches or warnings were
                   originally issued for the coast. By Tuesday, July 9, the storm still had not made an appreciable
                   turn to the north. During a coordination with the state EMC on the evening of July 9, the state
                   EMC virtually insisted that a watch or warning be issued so that their coastal county EMCs could
                   initiate their hurricane plans. The storm still had not made an appreciable turn by the morning of
                   July 10. During the 10 a.m. EDT conference call between NHC and the local offices, it was
                   agreed that an upgrade to a hurricane warning was the best course of action. Bertha finally
                   slowed and started to turn north by the afternoon of July 10, but the warnings were left up for
                   precautionary reasons. In retrospect, the NHC official forecasts were accurate in depicting
                   Bertha's decrease in forward speed and turn to the north. Although the turn did occur, the
                   uncertainty involved with the forecast made coordination with the State of Florida EMC difficult.

                                                                   22

                The local offices along the coast were active in coordinating with their local emergency
                management officials. Staffs at the offices were involved with both the NHC coordination calls
                and the State of Florida conference calls as well. Offices utilized telephone and amateur radio
                communication when needed to elaborate on the information contained in HLSs.

                Customer Response

                Despite the coordination issues which occurred during Bertha's approach, local customers were
                satisfied in general with the services they received. The Palm Beach County EMC was
                supportive of the NWS warnings and forecasts and expressed displeasure only at the tenseness of
                the coordination between NHC and the state EMC. The Broward County EMC was concerned
                about the breakpoint chosen for the tropical storm warning (north of Deerfield Beach) since
                Deerfield Beach is in Broward County but the warning was for the area north of Broward
                County.

                Along the central Florida coast, there was some second-guessing of the warnings and
                evacuations. These concerns were especially evident in the local print media. However, the
                majority of the customers in the area felt that the actions taken were prudent considering the
                history and past track of the storm. The NWSO Melbourne WCM has engaged in ongoing
                meetings with local emergency managers to evaluate the communication and coordination issues.

                In northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, customers were satisfied as well with the services
                from NWSO Jacksonville, Florida. The regional media were centrally located in the Duval
                County EMC. On the afternoon of July 10, the NWSO Jacksonville MIC relocated to the Duval
                County, Florida, EMC to field media inquiries and to enhance coordination with Duval County
                and other local emergency management officials. Community response in the coastal areas was
                immediate upon issuance of the hurricane warning. NWSO Jacksonville received a letter of
                appreciation from the Camden County, Georgia, EMC, and several other local agencies gave
                verbal compliments to the office. As in east-central Florida, the NWSO Jacksonville WCM and
                SOO have engaged in frequent evaluation meetings with local customers.

                Eastern Region

                Impacts

                Hurricane Bertha was an unusual early season Category 2 hurricane which made landfall near
                Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Bertha was the first significant hurricane to directly affect
                the state between Wilmington and Morehead City since Hurricane Donna in 1960.

                The American Insurance Association estimates that $135 million of insured property losses
                occurred during Bertha with $ 100 million having occurred in North Carolina, $25 million in

                                                              23

                    Virginia, and $10 million in South Carolina. Claims represent insured losses resulting from
                    factors other than tidal inundation (i.e., mostly wind).

                    The hardest hit area was just to the east of the eye at landfall ... Topsail Beach and Swansboro,
                    North Carolina. Water was 5 to 6 feet deep in waterfront businesses in Swansboro. Highest
                    wind gusts reported on land were 108 mph at Camp Lejeune and Jacksonville and 95 mph at
                    Wrightsville Beach (all in North Carolina). Wind gusts of 80 mph were observed at NWSO
                    Newport, North Carolina. In Wilmington, North Carolina, just to the west of the eye, winds
                    gusted to 70 mph. Over water, the Frying Pan Shoals C-Man tower, 35 miles off the North
                    Carolina coast, registered a gust to 115 mph. NWSO Wilmington, North Carolina, recorded
                    5.66 inches of rain during Bertha's passage.

                    In North Carolina, moderate to severe amounts of beach erosion occurred in areas of Bertha's
                    greatest impact. Mason Inlet lost 50 feet of land, leaving the inlet that much closer to Shell
                    Island Resort. At Emerald Isle, the dunes dropped vertically 8 to 10 feet at the erosion line. At
                    Kure Beach, there was 4 feet of vertical erosion against the boardwalk, leaving the strand
                    narrower by 40 feet. On the Outer Banks, more than 150,000 people (mostly tourists) evacuated,
                    back to the mainland. Further south, well over 100,000 people evacuated to the west of 1-95 and
                    out of harms way.

                    Outside the areas of greatest impact, Bertha's effects were much less dramatic. In South
                    Carolina, the highest measured wind was at the downtown Charleston Handar with a peak gust of
                    58 mph. Higher peak gusts likely occurred along the barrier island beachfronts. No significant
                    beach erosion occurred as the maximum tide departure occurred near the time of low tide.
                    Rainfall was generally between I and 2 inches. Widespread power outages occurred over North
                    Carolina with as many as 250,000 customers without power in the eastern portions of the state.
                    About 80,000 people were evacuated in South Carolina and 20,000 in Georgia. Revenue losses
                    due to evacuations of tourists and residents were estimated to be about $40 million. One person
                    drowned off Myrtle Beach in advance of the storm while attempting to, surf the large waves and
                    swells.

                    In Virginia, four tornadic storms associated with Bertha resulted in much of the damage across
                    eastern portions of the state. The strongest tornado struck Northumberland County, Virginia, and
                    resulted in nine injuries. Rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 6 inches on the Virginia Capes and the
                    lower Maryland shore to 2 to 4 inches over inland sections of Virginia east of Interstate 95.
                    Mostly minor to locally moderate tidal flooding and beach erosion occurred. Extensive power
                    outages occurred over eastern Virginia, with as many as 115,000 customers without power in the
                    eastern sections of the state. In the NWSO Wakefield, Virginia, county warning area (CWA),
                    nearly 1,800 people were evacuated.

                    Inland portions of Delaware and Maryland experienced heavy rain and      'gusty winds from what
                    was now Tropical Storm Bertha although the most significant impact was from several weak
                    tornadoes. There was some attendant wind damage associated with the stronger thunderstorms in

                                                                      24

                 Bertha's rain bands. The Patuxent River, Maryland, Naval Air Station recorded a gust of 48 mph
                 and 4.03 inches of rain. Rainfall totals ranged ftom 4 to 4.5 inches along the western shore of the
                 Chesapeake Bay and I to 2.5 inches across metropolitan Washington, D.C. In Bertha's
                 aftermath, about 2,000 homes were without power in northern Virginia, 5,000 around the District
                 of Columbia and surrounding Maryland suburbs, and 10,000 in and around Baltimore.

                 In New Jersey, the most significant impact from Bertha was the heavy rain with 2- to 4-inch
                 storm totals common in coastal sections, with a few isolated reports greater than 6 inches. One
                 such report was 6.69 inches in Estelle Manor, New Jersey. Generally, coastal and flash flooding
                 were not a problem although moderate wave action was responsible for one surfing fatality.
                 Harvey Cedars, New Jersey, reported a 63-mph gust with some downed trees and resultant power
                 outages which were a consequence of the area's experiencing strong gusty winds and saturated
                 soils.

                 On Long Island, winds gusted to 64 mph on Babylon Village, New York. Rainfall totals were as
                 high as 4.65 inches at Pomona in Rockland County, New York. In New York City and Long
                 Island, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.76 inches in Quogue to 2.49 inches at Mt. Sinai (both on
                 Long Island). Mostly minor to locally moderate beach erosion occurred.

                 In southern New England, most of Bertha's adverse effects were minimal and resulted in only
                 minor coastal flooding. One strong band of convection, however, resulted in strong winds and
                 numerous power outages across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. The highest reported
                 gust was 87 mph in New Bedford, Massachusetts. The maximum reported rainfall was
                 7.20 inches at Billerica, Massachusetts. Rainfall totals exceeded 5 inches at several locations in
                 northern Rhode Island, northeast Connecticut and interior parts of eastern Massachusetts.

                 The remainder of New England essentially had to deal with the locally heavy rains associated
                 with Bertha's remnants. Total rainfall across the area was generally in the 2- to 4-inch range with
                 lower amounts in northern Maine and northern New Hampshire. There were several reports of
                 water over the roads in the areas covered by flood warnings, but no significant problems or
                 damage was reported. (See Appendix E for the Aerial Survey.)

                 Warning and Forecast Services

                 Timely hurricane watches and warnings were posted commensurate with the threat posed by
                 Bertha. However, intensity forecasts prior to landfall in North Carolina were not on target.
                 Information from NHC indicated that Hurricane Bertha had weakened as she approached the
                 North Carolina coast. The hurricane had been gradually weakening since its top speed of
                 115 mph on July 9 to 81 mph on July 11. Then 12 hours before landfall, the estimated maximum
                 1 -minute winds increased to 104 mph. Information relayed to eastern North Carolina emergency
                 managers mirrored information received from the NHC. Forecast wind speeds, especially inland,
                 were too low.

                                                               25

                  Forecasts of sound-side flooding of the Outer Banks were based on a numerical model developed
                  at North Carolina State University. The forecast based on the late afternoon advisory on July I I
                  called for a 6- to 8-foot surge. This forecast did not take into account decreasing wind speeds as
                  Bertha moved north through eastern North Carolina. As a result, the surge forecast was too high.
                  Actual surges were on the order of I to 2 feet. South of this area from Cape Lookout to Cape
                  Fear, the storm surge was between 5 and 6 feet and was forecast to be between 4 and 6 feet.

                  Some lower Maryland Eastern Shore emergency managers expressed concern with the lack of a
                  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch north of the Hurricane Warning area. It was their feeling
                  that a Watch would have afforded them the freedom to take action commensurate with the level
                  of threat they perceived existed.

                  Further north, local NWSFO and NWSO products were excellent and accurately depicted the
                  hazards posed by the now weakening tropical storm. Early on in the event, there was some initial
                  forecast disagreement across southern New Hampshire. This was subsequently resolved by a
                  joint telephone call with the New Hampshire Office of Emergency Management by staffs at
                  NWSFOs at Taunton, Massachusetts, and Gray, Maine. Generally, the accurate and timely NWS
                  warnings and forecasts allowed customers both on land and water to adequately prepare for
                  Bertha.

                  Internal and External Coordination

                  Internal NWS and external coordination during Bertha's passage through Eastern Region went
                  well in most instances. Timely notification to Federal, state, county and local agencies were
                  initiated by local NWS offices well in advance of the official watches and warnings. This
                  ensured that users were well-prepared days in advance of the hurricane's impact.

                  External coordination was accomplished primarily via telephone. Some users in the heart of
                  Bertha's path obtained information through a bulletin board system at NWSO Newport, North
                  Carolina. The primary backup system at the NWSO, amateur radio operators, was used to gather
                  information but was not needed for coordination purposes since the telephone system did not fail.

                  Internal NW`9 coordination was accomplished primarily via telephone, the hurricane hotline, and
                  AFOS.

                  Some user complaints were also received regarding the utility of the inland winds model. As
                  noted earlier, this largely resulted from the forecast of strong inland winds in the NHC marine
                  advisory not reflecting observed conditions.

                  In northeast North Carolina, the hurricane revealed some coordination problems with regard to
                  the timely dissemination of important weather information between NWSO Wakefield, Virginia,
                  and the emergency managers of the coastal counties within Wakefield's CWA. The MIC and

                                                                26

                 SOO met with the emergency managers and resolved these issues. Additionally, emergency
                 management officials stated they continue to have tight budgets and cannot afford NWWS.
                 EMWIN was emphasized while the use of Internet and the bulletin board service was mentioned.

                 In North Carolina, some problems were noted regarding NHC initiated calls to the EMC. When
                 a hurricane warning is posted for the North Carolina coast, the NWSFO Raleigh MIC and WCM
                 brief the state EMC in person when each new advisory is issued. State emergency management
                 officials also call the NWSFO as appropriate, between visits by the MIC or WCM, to get
                 intermediate updates on the hurricane's progress. NHC briefing calls frequently came at times
                 when state officials were already in the midst of a briefing by the NWSFO or with local
                 emergency management officials along the coast.

                 At a number of NWS offices, HAM radio SKYWARN volunteers received and passed along
                 information. In at least one instance (NWSO Wilmington, North Carolina), Packet Radio was
                 their primary communication device. Local emergency management officials with Packet Radio
                 often received the hurricane advisories and local office statements more than a half hour before
                 they were received by other means. Additionally, the Packet Radio also provided them with
                 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar images from the radar coded message product.

                 Data Collection and Communication

                 The coastal portion of the NWSO Morehead City, North Carolina, CWA is covered with data
                 collection devices ranging from ASOS sites, Datalogger, and DARDC wind equipment. Most
                 units failed once power was lost. Amateur radio operators were used to gather information
                 throughout the storm and proved to be NWSO Morehead City's most reliable data-gathering
                 source. Generally, though, the sparsity of land and over water.real-time observations proved
                 once again to be an obstacle as Bertha slammed onshore and traversed through eastern North
                 Carolina.

                 Local NWS office work on fine-tuning the WSR-89D rainfall estimates continued during Bertha.
                 With the passage of each tropical system through the region, more radar data are helping local
                 offices to fine tune the most accurate reflectivity (Z-R) relationship to utilize. This will aid
                 NWSFO/NWSO assessments of the (rainfall) flooding potential during future tropical system
                 passages.

                 WSR-88D level H, Ell, and IV data were archived by NWS offices in Bertha's path.
                 Unfortunately, the archive level II data at NWSO Morehead City was inoperative throughout the
                 event. In addition, many NWSFOs and NWSOs archived upper level plots, surface observations
                 and model gridded data during the hurricane.

                 In North Carolina, the New Bern and Cape Hatteras NWR failed for a time as the hurricane was
                 reaching peak strength. This is a problem which the Region is attempting to minimize for future

                                                                 27

                   hurricanes and other severe weather episodes through the use of NWS-owned and operated
                   uninterruptible power supply and back-up generator equipment at NWR transmitter locations.

                   A number of offices noted a truncation of some of the more lengthy HLS on TWC. Moreover, it
                   was also noted that some of the NOWs were cut off at six, as opposed to eight lines. Obviously,
                   this premature truncation of the HLS and NOW will result in need-to-know information not
                   being passed on to the viewer and as such needs to be resolved with TWC.

                   A telephone company problem led to the NWR's Blue Hill transmitter, which serves the Greater
                   Boston area, being off the air for several hours during the height of the storm. Additionally, the
                   Providence ASOS temperature and dew point sensor went out of service during Bertha's passage
                   through the area.

                   User Response

                   User response was quite good. The successful evacuations and low casualty rates reflect the
                   growing sophistication and team efforts of the NWS and the emergency management community
                   although a number of false perceptions as pertains to (he hurricane's perceived threat linger.

                   Emergency management personnel in North Carolina are well trained and made the appropriate
                   evacuation decisions. All used either the "HurrTrak" or "Hurrevac" computer software to aid in
                   their decision-making process. Conference calls that included all emergency managers as well as
                   NWSO Morehead City and NWSO Wakefield personnel were initiated by the North Carolina
                   Area A Coordinator (includes northeastern North Carolina counties). Occasional conference
                   calls were initiated by the Area C Coordinator (central and southeastern North Carolina
                   counties).

                   The media and public responded quite well. Most tourists evacuated when ordered, however, the
                   majority of the year-round residents remained on the North Carolina barrier islands.

                   Further north, the states of Maryland and Virginia were contacted after the event to assess their
                   reaction. Feedback from the state level was strongly positive. Some concern was expressed by
                   one emergency manager on the Maryland Eastern Shore, regarding the NWS use of one of the
                   hurricane break points during the event.

                   Just to the south of Bertha's greatest impact, individuals who were not allowed to return to
                   evacuated areas immediately after the hurricane and subsequently saw only limited damage noted
                   that they would not evacuate when the next hurricane approached. This attitude is a continuing
                   problem that the NWS and FEMA will have to resolve in present and future educational outreach
                   efforts.

                                                                 28

                Preparedness

                The true measure of a warning program's effectiveness is the degree of response that the warning
                elicits from the public and local officials. The NWS must work closely with emergency
                managers, officials and the media to gain their trust and to ensure that their requirements for
                technical information are met. Similarly, active public awareness campaigns conducted with
                local officials and the media foster heightened awareness of hazards presented by hurricanes.

                Numerous prefearly season hurricane preparedness activities were conducted throughout the
                Region prior to Bertha making landfall in North Carolina and then moving up the east coast, a
                short distance inland. Most individuals knew how to respond to Bertha's threat, and thereby
                demonstrated that NWS community preparedness/outreach efforts indeed paid off. It was
                interesting to note, however, that North Carolina Preparedness Week was scheduled in North
                Carolina for the week following Bertha's passage. Needless to say, the week's activities were
                canceled in lieu of the "real-life" experiences associated with this early season hurricane.

                In South Carolina, working relations with local and state emergency managers are in excellent
                condition thanks to regular South Carolina Hurricane Task Force meetings and work
                accomplished through the local NWSO Charleston and NWSFO Columbia preparedness
                programs. Similar actions at other Eastern Region coastal NWSFOs/NWSOs translated to
                successful local preparedness efforts during the days leading up to Bertha's passage through the
                Region.

                During state conference calls, the state and local officials displayed reasonable expectations and
                asked pertinent questions of the local office NWS participants. These emergency managers
                seemed to understand well the role local NWSFO and NWSO offices play and used NWS-
                provided information to their full advantage.

                Finally, Eastern Region NWSFOs and NWSOs were well prepared internally for Bertha with
                appropriate staffing changes initiated well in advance of the hurricane/tropical storm. This
                ensured that local NWS offices were properly staffed to meet the challenges posed by this
                hurricane. Externally, shelters were opened where needed, and again, no preparedness problems
                were noted.

                                                               29

                                 Appendix A
                       Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale*

           Category      Definition-Likely Effects

           ONE           Winds 74-95 mph: No real damage to building structures. Damage
                         primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some
                         coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

           TWO           Winds 96-110 mph: Some roofing material, door, and window damage to
                         buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, and piers.
                         Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

           THREE         Winds 111-130 mph: Some structural damage to small residences and
                         utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile
                         homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures
                         with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded
                         well inland.

           FOUR          Winds 131-155 mph: More extensive curtainwall failures with some
                         complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of
                         beach areas. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
                         Terrain may be flooded well inland.

           FIVE          Winds greater than 155 mph: Complete roof failure on many residences
                         and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small
                         utility buildings blown over or away. Major damage to lower floors of all
                         structures located near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential
                         areas may be required.

            In operational use, the scale corresponds to the I -minute average sustained wind speed as
           opposed to gusts which could be 20 percent higher or more.

                                       A-1

                              Appendix B

    t                    Meteorological Tables

                                   B-I

                         Table 1. Best track, Huff icane Bertha, 5 - 14 July, 1996 (updated 4 August 1996),

                         Date/Time                           Position                       Pressure          Wind Speed                         Stage
                             (UTC)                                                              (mb)                 (kt)
                                                  Lat. ('N)            Lon. (*W)
                         0510000                      9.8                   34.0                1009                 30                   tropical depression
                            0600                      10.2                  36.3                1008                 30                            11
                            1200                      11.0                  39.0                1007                 35                      tropical storm
                            1800                      12.0                  41.2                1006                 35
                         06/0000                      12.7                  43.9                1005                 35
                            0600                      13.1                  46.6                1004                 35
                            1200                      13.7                  48.7                1002                 40
                            1800                      14.2                  51.0                1000                 45
                         07/0000                      14.9                  52.9                999                  50
                            0600                      15.6                  54.8                997                  55
                            1200                      16.4                  56.9                995                  60
                            1800                      16.5                  58.4                992                  70                        hurricane
                         08/0000                      17.0                  60.1                988                  75
                            0600                      17.5                  61.8                985                  75
                            1200                      18.0                  63.5                983                  70
                            1800                      18.6                  64.9                978                  75
                         09/0000                      19.4                  66.1                970                  80
                            0600                      20.3                  67.7                960                  100
                            1200                      21.4                  69.4                965                  100
                            1800                      22.5                  71.1                967                  90
                         10/0000                      23.6                  72.6                969                  85
                            0600                      24.5                  74.0                971                  80
                            1200                      25.4                  75.3                968                  80
                            1800                      26.4                  75.8                966                  80
                         11/0000                      27.5                  76.4                968                  75
                            0600                      28.3                  76.8                972                  75
                            1200                      29.2                  77.5                977                  75
                            1800                      30.0                  78.0                980                  70
                         12/0000                      30.7                  78.3                982                  70
                            0600                      31.2                  78.6                984                  70
                            1200                      32.2                  78.4                975                  85
                            1800                      33.6                  78.1                974                  90
                         13/0000                      35.0                  77.6                993                  65
                            0600                      36.7                  77.0                993                  60                      tropical storm
                            1200                      38.3                  76.1                994                  60
                            1800                      40.2                  74.5                994                  60
                         14/0000                      42.1                  71.9                994                  60
                            0600                      44.1                  69.0                995                  55
                            1200                      46.0                  66.0                995                  50                       extratropical
                            1800                      47.0                  62.0                995                  50
                         15/0000                      48.0                  57.0                995                  50
                            0600                      49.0                  52.0                996                  45
                            1200                      51.0                  47.0                996                  40
                            1800                      54.0                  44.0                996                  40
                         16/0000                      57.5                  42.5                991                  40
                            0600                      58.5                  42.5                988                  40
                            1200                      59.5                  .42.0               988                  45
                            1800                      59.8                  41.0                985                  45
                         17/0000                      60.0                  40.0                993                  40
                            0600                      60.5                  39.0                1001                 35
                         09/0600                      20.3                  67.7                960                  100                   minimum pressure
                         12/2000                      34.3                  77.8                974                  90                landfall* midway between
                                                                                                                                   Wrightsville and Topsail Beaches
                            *The eyewall also passed over Antigua, Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, St Martin, St Thomas, and the British Virgin Islands
                            and passed close to a number of other islands in the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

                      Table2. Hurricane Bertha selected surface observations. Julv 1996.
                                                                Press.    Date/time        Sustained             Feak  Date/time I Storm               Storm        total
                      Location                                  (mb)      (UTQ             wind(kt)a             gust  (UTO'             ge(ft)c       tide(ft)"    rain(in.)
                                                                                                                                 _Lsu-rge(ft)c
                      Florida
                        Jacksonville                            1011.9  j 11/2256          22(2 min)             27    11/1721                                      trace
                        Jacksonville Beach                                                                                                             2
                      Georgia
                        Sea Island                                                                                                                     3
                        St. Simon                                                                                                                      3
                      South Carolina
                        Charleston international airport        1008.5  1 12/1155          30 (2-min.)           39    12/0130                                      1.48
                        Charleston city office
                                                                                           36                    50    12/1130                                      0.94
                        Charleston harbor                                                                                             2.7
                        Cheraw                                                                                                                                      0.38
                        Cherry Grove pier                                                                        68
                        Garden City pier                                                                         54
                        Loris
                                                                                                                                                                    2.77
                        Myrtle Beach                                                                                                                                2.40
                        Myrtle Beach, Sands Resort
                                                                                                                                                                    4.73
                        Myrtle Beach Springmaid pier                                                                                  3.3
                        Myrtle Beach pavilion                                                                    52
                        Summerville
                                                                                                                                                                    1.40
                      North Carolina
                        Beaufort Duke marine lab                                                                                      2.8
                                                                                                                 56    12/2125
                        Beaufort
                        Bath                                                                                                                           6
                        Bellhaven                                                                                                                      7
                        Bnmswick                                                                                                                  T -5
                                                                                                                                                       6
                        Carolina Beach
                                                                                                                 64    12/2242      1
                        Cherry Point (NKT)
                        East Wilmington                                                                          70
                        Greenville                                                                               76                                                 4.11
                                                                                                                 63    13/0100
                        Ratteras ferry ofice
                        Kure Beach                                                       1 49                    180   12/1835
                                                                                                       -T-
                        Lake Waccamaw                                                                                                                               2.39
                        Newport                                 994.3                                            178                                                2.95
                                                                                                                       12/2208                                      4.56c
                        New Bem                                                                                  162
                        New River (NCA)                                                                          94    12/2021
                        Pongo River                                                                                                                    4.5
                        Seymour Johnson AFB                     986.3       12/2355      1 33                    52    12/2155                                      4.03
                        Snow Hill                                                                                                                                   5.44
                        S. Pamlico River                                                                                                               3
                        Southport (Nixon)                       978.3       2/1835         55                    74    12/1703
                        Surf City (Horodner)                    977       1 12/2005
                        Swansboro
                        Williamston                                                                                                                                 4.10
                        Wilmington (ILM)                        978.7       12/2028        46(2-min)             61    12/1902      i  1.3                          5.66
                        Wilmington NC state port                                                                 77    i
                        Wilmington port terminal                980.1       12/1850        NOAA ship Whiting, 3.4.2N 77-96W
                        Cape Lookout Buoy                                                                        62    112/2300
                        Diamond Shoals Buoy                                                                      171   113/0200
                                                                977.5       12/1800        7700 min)             101   12/1610
                        FPSN7 (CMAN. 80 ft asi)
                                                                                                                 80
                        Wrightsville Bch. Banks ch.
                        Virginia
                                                                            1311155
                        Andrews AFB (ADW)                       1000.6                                           35    13/0750                                      0.94
                        Baltimore Washington airport            11000.3   1 13/1349                              141   13/0704                                      2.28
                        Cape Charles                                                                             61    13/0330
                        Eastvillc, Northhampton Co.                                                                                                                 7.00

                     Table2(continued). Hurricane Bertha selected surface observations. JuIv 1996.
                                                           Press.       Dateitime       Sustained         Peak      Dateitime      Storm          Storm          total
                     Location                              (Mb)         (UTC)           wind(kt)c         gust      (UTO,          surge(ft)g     tide (ft)'     rain(in.)
                     Virginia
                     Elizabeth City (EC6)                  998.9        13/1313         39                i48       13/0055
                     Newport News (PHF)                  1 993.1        1310750
                     Norfolk International airport.        995.1        13/0756         31                42        13/0740                                      2.44
                     Norfolk NAS (NGU)                     994.4        13/0755         30                42        13/0155
                     Norfolk, Sewells Point
                                                                                                                                   2.5
                     Oceana NAS (NTU)                    1 997.2        13/0755
                     Pasquotank River                   -7                                                                                        5
                     Patuxent Fiver NAS (NHK)            1 995.0        13/1100                           42        13/0603     1                                4.03
                     Plantation Creek                                                                                                                            7.20
                     Potomac river at Wisc. Ave.
                                                                                                                                                  5
                     Wallops Island                                          ---T-42                      47        13/0605
                     Washington Dulles airport                                                            29        13/1218
                                                                                                                                                                 1.12
                     Washington National airport 1 1001.7            1  13/1221                                                                                  1.24
                                                                                                          29        13/1346
                                                                                                                           'i
                                                                                     1                                                                           5.80
                     Willis Wharf, Accornac Co.
                     Chesapeake Light Stn. Buoy                                         49                56        13/0700
                     Fenwick Is. Buoy (44009)                                           41                48        13/1300
                     Maryland
                     Nanticoke, Wicontico Co.
                                                                                                                                                                 5.03
                     Salisbury                                                                                                                                   5.62
                     Delaware
                     Dover                                 995.6      1 1311155         30                50
                     Lewes                                                                                                         1.58
                     New Jersey
                     Atlantic City                                                                                                 2.27                          2.41
                     Estelle Manor                                                                                                                               6.59
                     Harvey Cedars                                                                        55
                     Newark airport                                                     25 (2-min.)       35        13/1521
                     -Teterboro airport                                                 26 (2-min.)       38        13/1547
                     River Vale                                                                                                                                  2.17
                     West Milford                                                                                                                                4.85
                     Pennsylvania
                     Philadelphia                                       29              36                                                                       12.43
                     New York
                     Ambrose Light Tower buoy                                                             48
                     Babylon ViUage, L.I.                                                                 64
                     Buoy southwest of Fire Is.                                                           37
                     Brookhaven airport                                                 26                36        13/1947
                     East Quogue, Suffolk co.                                                                                                                    1 0.76
                     -JFK airport                                                       31(2-min.)        37        113/1458
                     LaGuardia airport                                                  29 (2-min.)       38        113/1518
                                                                                                                                                                 2.49
                     Mt. Sinai(New York City)
                     Ossining, Westchester Co.                                                                                                                   3.09
                     Pomona, Rockland Co.                                                                                                                        4.65
                     Connecticut                                                                                                                                 0.91
                                                                                                                    13/1547
                     Bridgeport airport                                                 27                34
                     Orange
                     Preston                                                                              148
                     Shelton                                                                                                                                     14.06
                     Vernon
                                                                                                                                                                 5.50

            Table2(continued). Hurricane Bertha selected surface observations. Julv 1996.
                                                            Date/time      Sustained                 e/time     Storm          Storm       total
            Location                            Press.      (UTC)          windi         gust     (UM         Tsurgetffll      tide(ft)'   rain(in.)
                                                                                        _I Peak   Dat
            Rhode Island
              Fox Point hurricatie barrier
                                                                                                                2.1
              Sachuest Point (Middletown)                                  54           i64       14/00109   hand-held anemometer
              Providence                        995.9       13/2336
            Maine
              Goshen
                                                                                                                                         1 5.70
              Billerica                                                                                                                    7.20
              Boston                            996.3       14/0056                     1
              New Bedford                                                  45            76       13/2030        1'.7
              Taunton ASOS                      995.6       14/0041
            Puerto Rico
              San Juan                          996.8       08/2056        39           1 49      08/2056
                 4 averaging period is I min unless otherwise indicated.
                 'Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.
                 ' Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
                 dStorm tide is water height above NGVD.
                 'Top of rain gage blew off and "a lot of rain was sucked out".

                       Table 3. Ship reports of 34 knots or higher wind speed, associated with Hurricane Bertha, July 1996.

                       date/time        ship name                      latitude             longitude           wind dir/            pressure
                       (UTC)                                           (ON)                 (1,W)               speed(knots)         (mb)

                       07/1200          FNOR                           17.1                 53.8                110/39               1014.2

                       08/1800          WZJE                           21.6                 64.3                130/35               1013.0

                       09/0000          WCHF                           21.6                 64.7                080/036              1009.1

                       09/0300          WZJE                           20.0                 64.6                100/38               1007.0

                       09/0300          WCHF                           21.0                 65.0                100/48               1008.9

                       09/0600          WZJE                           16.9                 65.1                130/40               1007.5

                       09/0600          WCHF                           20.6                 65.1                130/48               1006.9

                       09/0900          WCHF                           20.4                 65.3                130/42               1009.0

                       09/1800          WZJF                           23.0                 67.9                100/43               1012.0

                       09/1800          P3TA4                          24.3                 67.0                110/34               1013.2

                       11/1800          KIRF                           28.5                 78.8                270/35               1006.0

                       11/1800          C6YC                           29.6                 73.5                150/040              1020.5

                       11/1800          KRPP                           30.8                 79.9                050140               1010.0

                       11/1800          PCAM                           31.6                 80.4                040/43               1010.0

                       11/1800          DQFT                           32.4                 72.6                140/35               1022.5

                       11/2100          C6YC                           28.9                 74.3                140/42               1018.8

                       12/0000          C6YC                           28.3                 74.8                140/38               1017.5

                       12/0000          KRPP                           30.8                 80.1                030/38               1004.7

                       12/0000          PCAM                           31.0                 80.9                020/47               1010.0

                       12/0600          DQFT                           30.7                 74.7                140/58               1019.0

                       12/0600          PCAM                           31.1                 80.6                360/66               1005.0

                       12/0600          KRLZ                           31.3                 76.5                130/45               1008.0

                       12/0900          KRLZ                           30.8                 76.4                150155               1007.3

                       12/1200          P3HR2                          28.6                 79.7                270/34               1015.5

                       12/1200          KRLZ                           30.4                 76.4                150/43               1008.8

                       12/1200          ELSD9                          30.9                 75.4                150/37               1016.0

                       12/1200          SHIP                           34.9                 71.1                180/52

                       12/1500          DQFT                           30.0                 77.3                180/39               1015.0

                         Table 3(continued). Ship reports of 34 knots or higher wind speed, associated with Hurricane Bertha, July 1996.

                         date/time       ship name                    latitude           longitude          wind dir/          pressure
                         (UTC)                                        (ON)               (0 W)              speed(knots)       (mb)

                         12/1800         DQFT                         30.1               78.1               210/47             1015.5

                         12/1800         9VKR                         30.5               74.8               170/35             1013.0

                         12/1800         ELSD9                        30.7               76.3               150/37             1017.5

                         12/1800         SHIP                         32.7               73.6               160/40             1016.8

                         12/1800         9VBK                         33.8               73.9               140/34             1017.8

                         '13/0000        WCjY                         32.7               75.2               180/35             1022.2

                         13/0000         9VBK                         33.6               75.1               170/38             1012.2

                         13/0600         3FWD                         32.2               73.7               180/37             1017.0

                         13/0600         9VBK                         33.3               76.0               200/38             1013.3

                         13/1200         4XGS                         39.3               73.9               140/60             1006.0

                         13/1200         9VUM                         37.9               73.2               150/40             1008.1

                         13/1500         3FEB5                        36.5               69.9               180/40             1019.6

                                         9VUM                         37.6               73.9               210/44             1006.5

                         13/1500         4XGS                         38.7               74.1               160/60             1000.0
                         13/1800         3FEB5                        36.0               70.0               170/37           1 1017.9
                         13/1800         9VUM                         37.3               74.8               240/62             1009.6

                         13/1800         4XGS                         38.1               74.3               210/40             1005.0

                         13/1800         LENA3                        40.6               72.4               170/40             1004.0

                         13/2100         DDQS                         39.5               69.0               170/37             1012.6

                         14/0000         DDQS                         39.6               69.5               210/47             1009.8
                         14/0000         NJPJ                         41.9               70.3               180/35           1 1006.1
                         14/0600         DDQS                         39.7               70.4               240/35             1013.3
                         14/0900         VOLG                         45.0               60.4               170/35               611.4

                         14/1200         JKPS                         37.4               66.                230/39             1022.0

                         14/1200         CG2683                       43.3               62.6               230/50             1007.0

                         14/1200         3EXP6                        43.9               61.3               180/48             1007.8

                         14/1200         VOLG                         45.2               59.4               170/35

                     Table 4. Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Bertha. July 1996.

                     Date/time      Action                                  Location
                     (UTC)

                     06/1500        hurricane watch                         Antigua. Barbuda, Nevis. Montserrat. St Kitts, Anguilla.
                                                                            Saba, St Eustatius, Dominica, and Dutch St Maarten

                     06/2100        hurricane watch                         Guadeloupe, St Barthelemy, French St Martin, U.S. and
                                                                            British Virgin Islands

                     07/0300        hurricane warning                       Dominica northward to Anguilla and St Maarten

                     07/1200        hurricane watch                         Puerto Rico

                     07/1500        hurricane warning                       U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

                     08/0000        tropical storm watch                    Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Frances
                                                                            Viejo

                     08/0300        hurricane watch                         Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Frances
                                                                            Viejo

                     08/0900        hurricane watch                         Turks and Caicos Islands

                     08/1200        hurricane warning                       Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo, to Monte
                                                                            Cristo, southeastern Bahamas

                     08/1500        hurricane warning discontinued          Dominica

                     08/1800        hurricane watch                         Haiti from St Nicolas to border of Dominican Republic

                     08/1800        huricane warning discontinued           Leeward Islands south and east of St Eustatius

                     08/2100        hurricane warning                       Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas

                     08/2100        hurricane warning discontinued          Leeward Islands

                     08/2100        hurricane watch                         central Bahamas

                     09/0100        hurricane warning discontinued          U.S. and British Virgin Islands

                     09/0300        hurricane warning discontinued          Puerto Rico

                     09/0300        tropical storm warning                  Haiti from St Nicolas to border of Dominican Republic

                     09/0900        hurricane warning                       central Bahamas

                     09/0900        hurricane watch                         northwestern Bahamas

                     09/1500        watches and warnings discontinued       Dominican Republic and Haiti

                     09/2100        hurricane warning                       northwestern Bahamas

                     10/0300        tropical storm warning                  north of Deerfield Beach. FL to Brunswick, GA

                     10/0300        hurricane watch                         north of Brunswick to NCNA border including Pamlico
                                                                            and Albemarle Sounds

                         Table 4(cont.). Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Bertha. Julv 1996.

                         Date/time      Action                                   Location
                         (UTQ

                         10/0900        hurricane warning discontinued           Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas

                         1011500        hurricane warning                        Sebastian Inlet, FL to Cape Romain. SC

                         10/1800        hurricane warning discontinued           central Bahamas

                         10/2100        hurricane warning                        Cape Romain to NCNA border including Pamlico and
                                                                                 Albemarle Sounds

                         10/2100        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Sebastian Inlet. FL

                         11/0300        hurricane watch                          NCNA border to Chincoteague VA including southern
                                                                                 Chesapeake Bay

                         11/0600        hurricane warning discontinued           northwestern Bahamas

                         11/0900        hurricane warning discontinued           south of Brunswick, GA

                         12/0900        hurricane warning discontinued           Savannah, Ga southward

                         12/1500        tropical storm warning                   NCNA border to Chincoteague, VA including southern
                                                                                 Chesapeake Bay

                         12/1900        hurricane warning discontinued           Cape Romain, SC southward

                         12/2100        hurricane warning                        NCNA border to Chincoteague, VA including the
                                                                                 Hampton Roads area

                         12/2100        tropical storm warning                   north of Chincoteague, VA to Watch Hill, RI including
                                                                                 the lower Delaware Bay

                         12/2100        tropical storm watch                     east of Watch Hill to the Merrimack River. MA

                         13/0300        hurricane warning discontinued           south of Topsail Beach, NC

                         13/0300        hurricane watch discontinued             lower Chesapeake Bay
                         0/0300         tropical storm warning                   all of Chesapeake Bay and the lower tidal Potomac River
                                                                                 and all of Delaware Bay
                         13/0700        hurricane warning to tropical storm      Topsail Beach, NC to Chincoteage, VA including
                                        warning                                  Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

                         13/0900        hurricane warning discontined            NCNA border southward

                         13/1200        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Fenwick Island, DE
                         13/1500        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Brigatine, NJ and Delaware Bay
                         13/2100        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Fire Island, NY
                         14/0000        tropical storm warning discontinued      south of Watch Hill, RI

                         14/0300        tropical storm warning discontinued      remainder of US east coast

                                                   Appendix C

                                    Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale

               Cate2ory Definition-Effective

               (FO)           Gale tornado (40-72 mph): Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; break
                              branches off trees; push over shallow-rooted trees; damage sign boards.

               (Fl)           Moderate tornado (73-112 mph): Moderate damage. The lower limit is the
                              beginning of hurricane wind speed; peel surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed
                              off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads.

               (F2)           Significant tornado (113-157 mph): Considerable damage. Roofs torn off
                              frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars pushed over; large trees
                              snapped or uprooted; light-object. missiles generated.

               (F3)           Severe tornado (158-206 mph): Severe damage. Roofs and some walls torn off
                              well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy
                              cars lifted off ground and thrown.

               (F4)           Devastating tornado (207-260 mph): Devastating damage. Well-constructed
                              houses leveled; structure with weak foundation blown off some distance; cars
                              thrown and large missiles generated.

               (F5)           Incredible tornado (261-318 mph): Incredible damage. Strong frame houses
                              lifted off foundations and carried considerable distance to disintegrate; automobile
                              sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 yards; trees debarked; incredible
                              phenomena will occur.

                                                            C-1

                             Appendix D

                       Storm Prediction Center
                        Tornado Watch Areas

                                  D-1

                                                                     TORNADO                          #0764

                                                                     Issue Time:         1437 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                     Valid Time:         1500 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                     End Time:           0000 UTC 07/13/1996

                                      ... . . .......
                                                                     Area:                      19244 sq. mi.

                                       ...... ...
                                                                     Issuing Forecaster: JOHNS

                                                                     ZCZC MKCSAW4 ALL 130000;332,0800 360,0774 2160,0751 332,0773;
                                                                     WWUS40 KMKC 121437 CDR
                                                                     MKC AWW 121437 CDR
                                                                     WW 764 TORNADO SC NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 12150OZ 13000OZ
                                                                     AXIS.30 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                     20SSE MYR/MYRTLE BEACH SC/ - 70NNE EWN/NEW BERN NCI
                                                                     -AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /65SE FLO - 24SW ECG/
                                                                     WIND GUSTS.30 KNOTS.
                                                                     MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN WIND VECTOR 12035.
                                                                     NNNN

                                                                     ZCZC MKCSEL4 ALL 130000;332,0800 360,0774 360,0751 332,0773;
                                                                     WWUS9 KMKC 121437 COR
                                                                     MKC WW 121437 CDR
                                                                     SCZ000-NCZ000-1 30000-

                                                                     BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                     TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 764
                                                                     NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                     1037 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 1996

                                                                     A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                     TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                     PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
                                                                     PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                     AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                     EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

                                                                     TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                     THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

                         <NO CANCELLATION>                           THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                     OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
                                                                     CAROLINA TO 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA.

                                                                     REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                     TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                     PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                     WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                     WARNINGS.

                                                                     C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTNIS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO EXTRM
                                                                     TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO
                                                                     550. MEAN WIND VECTOR 12035.

                                                                     D...

                                                                     E... OTIR TSTMS...

                                                                     ...JOHNS

                                                                     NNNN

                                                                         TORNADO #0765

                                                                         Issue Time:        1836 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                         Valid Time:        1900 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                         End Time:          0000 LITC 07/13/1996

                                                                         Area:                     13139 sq. mi.
                       -Ij
                                                                         Issuing Forecaster: JOHNS

                                                                        ZCZC MKCSAW5 ALL 130000;375,0742 360,0751 360,0774 375,0765:
                                                                        WWUS40 KMKC 121836
                                                                        MKC AWW 121836
                                                                        WW 765 TORNADO VA NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 1219DOZ - 13000OZ
                                                                        AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND -WEST OF LINE..
                                                                        70NNE ORF/NORFOLK VA/ - 25SW ECG/ELIZABETH CITY NC/
                                                                        -AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /32SSW SBY - 21SW ECG/
                                                                        WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
                                                                        MAX TOPS TO 530. MEAN WIND VECTOR 12030.
                                                                        NNNN

                                                                        ZCZC MKCSEL5 ALL 130000;375,0742 360,0751 360,0774 375,0765;
                                                                        WWUS9 KMKC 121836
                                                                        MKC WW 121836
                                                                        VAZ00O-NCZ0OO-1 30000-

                                                                        BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                        TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 765
                                                                        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                        236 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 1996

                                                                        A ... THE STORM PREDICTION cr=NtER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                        TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                         PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
                                                                         PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                         AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                        EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

                                                                        TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                        THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

                              <NO CANCELLATION>                         THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                        OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 25
                                                                        MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

                                                                        REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                        TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                        PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                        WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                        WARNINGS.

                                                                        C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH EXTRM TURSC AND SFC WIND
                                                                        GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO 530. MEAN WIND
                                                                        VECTOR 12030.

                                                                        D ... WIND FIELDS ARE INCRG NWD ALG SFC TROF THRU NERN NC AND
                                                                        SERN VA WHERE AMS IS MODERATE. TORNADO PTNL WL BE INCRG NWD
                                                                        WITH TIME INTO SERN VA.

                                                                        E...OTR TSTMS... CONT..WW 764..

                                                                        ... JOHNS

                                                                        NNNN

                                                                        n             TORNADO #0768

                                                                                      Issue Time:              2316 UTC 07/12/1996
                                                                                      Valid Time:              0000 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                      End Time:                0900 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                      Replace Time:            0815 UTC Q7/13/1996

                                                                                      Area:                             27993 sq. mi.
                                                                                      Issuing Forecaster: WIESS

                                                                                      ZCZC MKCSAWB ALL 130900;3",0780 382,0771 382,0743 3",0753;
                                                                                      WWUS40 KMKC 122316
                                                                                      MKC AWW 122316
                                                                                      WW 768 TORNADO NC VA MD AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 13000OZ - 13090OZ
                                                                                      AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                                      25SSE EWN/NEW BERN NCI - 25WNW SBY/SALISBURY MD/
                                                                                      _AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /57NE ILM - 20WNW SBY/
                                                                                      HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT.. 1/2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
                                                                                      MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17050,
                                                                                      REPLACES WW 764 .. SC NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                      REPLACES WW 765..VA NC AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                      NNNN

                                                                                      ZCZC MKCSEL8 ALL 130900;344,0780 382,0771 382,0743 344,0753;
                                                                                      WWUS9 KMKC 122316
                                                                                      MKC WW 122316
                                                                                      NCZOOO-VAZOOO-MDZOOO- 130900-

                                                                                      BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                                      TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 768
                                                                                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                                      716 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 1996

                                                                                      A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                                      TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                                      PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                                      PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
                                                                                      PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MARYLAND
                                                                                      AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                                      EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

                                                                                      TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                                      THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

                                <NO CANCELLATION>
                                                                                      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                                      OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                                      TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SALISBURY MARYLAND.

                                                                                      REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                                      TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                                      PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                                      WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                                      WARNINGS.

                                                                                      B. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION.. THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
                                                                                      WXTCH NUMBER 764...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 765. WATCH NUMBERS
                                                                                      764 ... 765 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 800 PM EDT.

                                                                                      C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 1/2
                                                                                      INCHES. EXTRM TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS
                                                                                      WITH MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17050.

                                                                                      0 ... BANDS OF CNVTN ASSOCD WITH HURCN BERTHA EXPCD TO CONT ROTG NWO
                                                                                      AND NWWD THRU THE NERN QUAD OF THE CRCLN CENTER. IR STLT IMAGERY
                                                                                      INDCS COOLING CLD TOPS NR THE EYEWALL RGN AS WELL AS IN THE
                                                                                      OFFSHORE FEEDER BANDS. 50-70 KT LOW LVL WINDS ABV THE SFC EAST OF
                                                                                      THE CENTER WILL MAINTAIN VERY STG LOW LVL SHEAR/HELICITY FVRBL FOR
                                                                                      THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES AS BERTHA MOVES NWD TNGT.

                                                                                      E ... OTR TSTMS... THIS WATCH REPLACES..WW 764..WW 765.. CONT..WW
                                                                                      766..WW 767.,

                                                                                      ... WEISS

                                                                                      NNNN

                                                                                              TORNADO #0770

                                                                                              Issue Time:                0441 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                              Valid Time:                0500 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                              End Time:                  1200 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                              Replace Time:              0815 UTC Q7/13/1996

                                                                                              Area:                              10567 sq. mi.
                                                                                              Issuing Forecaster: WEISS

                                                                                             ZCZC MKCSAWO, ALL 131200;382,0765 401,0755 401,0734 382,0744;
                                                                                             WWUS40 KMKC 130441 CDR
                                                                                             MKC AWW 130441 COR
                                                                                             WW 770 TORNADO MD DE NJ PA AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 13050OZ - 13120OZ
                                                                                             AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                                             50SSW DOV/DOVER DE/ - TTNfTRENTON NJ/
                                                                                             -AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /16WNW SBY - 39SW EWR/
                                                                                             HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT.. 1/2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
                                                                                             MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17040.
                                                                                             NNNN

                                                                                             ZCZC MKCSELO ALL 131200;382,0765 401,0755 401,0734 382,0744:
                                                                                             WWUS9 KMKC 130441 CDR
                                                                                             MKC WW 130441 CDR
                                                                                             MDZOOD-DEZOOO-NJZOOO-PAZOOO-131200-

                                                                                             BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                                             TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 770
                                                                                             NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                                             1241 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 1996

                                                                                             A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                                             TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                                             PARTS OF MARYLAND
                                                                                             PARTS OF DELAWARE
                                                                                             PARTS OF NEW JERSEY
                                                                                             PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA
                                                                                             AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                                             EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

                                                                                             TORNADOES LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING THUNDERST
                                                                                             E POSSIBLE N'THESE AREAS.
                                      <NO CANCELLATION>

                                                                                             THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                                             OM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DELAWARE TO TRENTON NEW JERSE

                                                                                             REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORN
                                                                                             ERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE A
                                                                                             D BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOF
                                                                                             TEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

                                                                                             C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 112 INCHES.
                                                                                             TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO 450.
                                                                                             ND VECTOR 17040.

                                                                                             D...

                                                                                             E...OTR TSTMS... CONT..WW 768..WW 769..WW 770..

                                                                                             ... WEISS

                                                                                             NNNN

                                                                                          TORNADO #0771

                                                                                          Issue Time:              0800 LITC 07/13/1996
                                                                                          Valid Time:              0815 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                                          End Time:                1500 LITC 07/13/1996

                                                          X.N,
                                                                                          Area:                              41048 sq. mi.
                                                                                          Issuing Forecaster: CORFIDI

                                                                                          ZCZC MKCSAW1 ALL 131500;372,0781 411,0751 411,0712 373,0743;
                                                                                          WWUS40 KMKC 130800
                                                                                          MKC AWW 130800
                                                                                          WW 771 TORNADO VA DC MD PA NJ NY CT DE AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 130815Z
                                                                                          13150OZ
                                                                                          AXIS.. 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                                          50E RIC/RICHMOND VA/ - 15NW BDR/BRIDGEPORT CT/
                                                                                          -AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /37NNW ORF - 13NW BDR/
                                                                                          WIND GUSTS-70 KNOTS.
                                                                                          MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17040.
                                                                                          REPLACES WW 768 .. NC VA MO AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                          REPLACES WW 770..MD DE NJ PA AND ADJ CSTL WTRS
                                                                                          NNNN

                                                                                          ZCZC MKCSEL1 ALL 131500:372,0781 411,0761 411,0712 373,0743;
                                                                                          WWUS9 KMKC 130800
                                                                                          MKC WW 130800
                                                                                          VAZOOO-DCZOOO-MDZOOO-PAZOOO-NJZOOO-NYZOOO-CTZOOO-DEZOOO-1 31500-

                                                                                          BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                                          TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 771
                                                                                          NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                                          400 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 1996

                                                                                          A.-THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                                          TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                                          PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA
                                                                                          DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
                                                                                          PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
                                                                                          DELAWARE
                                                                                          PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
                                                                                          NEW JERSEY
                                                                                          PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
                                                                                          PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT

                                                                                          AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
                                <NO CANCELLATION>
                                                                                          EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.
                                                                                          TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                                          THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

                                                                                          THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                                          OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 15 MILES
                                                                                          NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT CONNECTICUT.

                                                                                          REMEMBER-A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                                          TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                                          PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                                          WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                                          WARNINGS.

                                                                                          B..OTHER WATCH INFORMATION.. THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
                                                                                          WATCH NUMBER 768 ... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 770. WATCH NUMBER
                                                                                          768 ... 770 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 415 AM EDT.

                                                                                          C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO EXTRM
                                                                                          TUROC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS WITH MAX TOPS TO
                                                                                          450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 17040.

                                                                                          D ... THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES LKLY TO CONT INVOF FEEDER BANDS E/NE
                                                                                          OF BERTHA ... WHERE SFC DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED TO ADA 70F AND LOLVL
                                                                                          SPD/DIREC SHEAR RMNS VRY STG.

                                                                                          E... OTR TSTMS... THIS WATCH REPLACES..WW 768..WW 770..

                                                                                          ... CORFIDI

                                                                         TORNADO #0772

                                                                         Issue Time:          1720 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                         Valid Time:          1745 UTC 07/13/1996
                                                                         End Time:            0000 UTC 07/14/1996

                                                                         Area:                      15600 sq. mi.
                                                                         Issuing Forecaster: VESCIO

                                      ..... . .. ...

                             L

                                                                        ZCZC MKCSAW2 ALL 140000;404,0731 424,0722 424,0693 404,0702;
                                                                        WWUS40 KMKC 131720
                                                                        MKC AWW 131720
                                                                        WW 772 TORNADO MA CT RI NY AND ADJ CSTL WTRS 131745Z - 14000OZ
                                                                        AXIS '* 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
                                                                        3OSSW BID/BLOCK ISLAND RI/ - 25N BOS/BOSTON MA/
                                                                        -AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /59SSW PVD - 38SE CON/
                                                                        HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT.. 1/2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
                                                                        MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 20030.
                                                                        NNNN

                                                                        ZCZC MKCSEL2 ALL 140000;464,0731 424,0722 424,0693 404,0702;
                                                                        WWUS9 KMKC 131720
                                                                        MKC WW 131720
                                                                        MAZOOO-CTZOOO-RIZOOO-NYZOOO-140000-

                                                                        BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                                                                        TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 772
                                                                        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
                                                                        120 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 1996

                                                                        A ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
                                                                        TORNADO WATCH FOR

                                                                         PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
                                                                         PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT
                                                                         RHODE ISLAND
                                                                         PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
                                                                         AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

                                                                        EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

                                                                        TORNADOES ... LARGE HAIL ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
                                                                        THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
                              <NO CANCELLATION>                         THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
                                                                        OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BLOCK ISLAND RHODE
                                                                        ISLAND TO 25 MILES NORTH OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS.

                                                                        REMEMBER ... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                                                                        TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
                                                                        PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
                                                                        WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
                                                                        WARNINGS.

                                                                        C ... TORNADOES AND A FEW SVR,TSTMS WITH HAIL SFC AND ALF TO 1/2
                                                                        INCHES. EXTRM TURBC AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CBS
                                                                        WITH MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN WIND VECTOR 20030.

                                                                        D ... CNVTN IS INCRG JUST S OF LONG ISLAND ON E SIDE OF T.S. BERTHA.
                                                                        THIS ACTVTY IS XPCD TO LIFT NWD DURG THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. DRY
                                                                        INTRUSION NOTED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY ALLOW FOR SUFF
                                                                        AMS DESTABILIZATION FOR A FEW SVR TSTMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WNDS AN[
                                                                        ISOLD TORNADOES.

                                                                        ... VESCIO

                                                                        NNNN

                                                       Appendix E

                                                     Aerial Survey

                Introduction

                Hurricane Bertha struck the North Carolina coast on the afternoon and evening of July 12, 1996.
                1 arrived in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Monday, July 15. During the afternoon of July 15, a
                flight was made on the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) DeHavilland Twin Otter. An
                aerial flight was made along the coastline from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
                This 3 1/2 hour flight was spent examining wind damage along the coast and intercostal waterway

                area.

                On Tuesday, July 16, no flight was scheduled as U.S. Geological Survey was flying on a storm
                surge mission. A ground survey of agricultural damage was conducted in the afternoon from
                Wilmington northward to just south of Warsaw, North Carolina.

                Wednesday, July 17, a trip was made with the MIC and WCM of NWSO Wilmington to observe
                the damage at Carolina Beach and Kure Beach, North Carolina. Both locations lost piers. There
                were some structures with portions of roofs torn off, but most structures survived well. In the
                afternoon, another flight was made with the Twin Otter. This flight concentrated on inland
                damage from the hurricane. Damage was mainly confined to crops and trees and extended as far
                north as Goldsboro, North Carolina.

                Coastal Damage

                Wind damage was visible from the air from just north of Bald Head Island near Cape Fear to
                Atlantic Beach, south of Morehead City, North Carolina. The most intense damage with peak
                wind gusts estimated at 110 mph was located between North Topsail Beach and Emerald Isle,
                North Carolina. In this area, many beach homes suffered roof damage. The roof damage varied
                from torn off shingles to whole roofs lost. There were very few total failures to structures due to
                wind. Of those that did fail, it appears they were modular home or mobile home structures.

                Visible coastal erosion was found, especially to beach sand dunes and to a coastal road at North
                Topsail Beach. However, the damage was not as severe as in other recent landfalling hurricanes,
                such as Opal in 1995.

                Further inland along the edge of the intercoastal waterway, the primary damage was to trees.
                Numerous trees fell with most falling in the area northeast of the eye from west of Surf City
                northeastward to just east of Swansboro, North Carolina. This area extended northward to the

                                                                E-1

                     southern portions of Jacksonville. Wind gusts in this area were estimated to be between 80 and
                     100 mph.

                     Inland Agricultural Areas

                     Agricultural areas were particularly exposed to high winds from Hurricane Bertha. Much of the
                     damage was to corn and tobacco crops. Both of these crops are vulnerable to high wind gusts.
                     Much of the agricultural damage was west of the eyewall rather than east. This is due in part to
                     much of the corn and tobacco crops being grown further west rather than along the eastern
                     coastal areas. The storm tracked slowly northward along the North Carolina and South Carolina
                     coastline before making landfall. Thus, crops were exposed to strong northeast winds for an
                     extended period of time, and this caused crops to weaken significantly. The agricultural damage
                     extended as far as 40 miles west of the eye and as far north as Goldsboro, North Carolina, which
                     is approximately 75 to 80 miles inland. Most of the damage occurred in unprotected (no
                     blockage by trees or buildings) areas along the edge of fields. Some fields had more widespread
                     damage where a streak of particularly high wind toppled several rows of corn or tobacco.

                     Tornadoes

                     The initial SPC log of tornadoes associated with Bertha indicated at least six touched down.
                     Three of these reported tornadoes were investigated by air. There was no visible evidence of
                     tornado damage in the three locations of New Bern, Newport, and near Winnabow, North
                     Carolina. It is possible that some of these tornadoes either blended in with the hurricane damage
                     or were not visible from the air. East of Jacksonville, North Carolina, a tornado track was
                     identified from the air and was rated an Fl on the Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale (Appendix Q
                     with a path length of approximately 1 1/2miles. The one area that a tornado most likely did not
                     occur was near Winnabow.

                     Conclusions and Acknowledgments

                     The most severe wind damage associated with Hurricane Bertha was along the coast and east of
                     the eye center, typical of most hurricanes. The peak wind speeds estimated from the aerial
                     survey was 110 mph. Although damage to structures was minimal in this hurricane, agricultural
                     damage was extensive.

                     The author would like to thank the AOC and their fine pilots, Lieutenants Pickett and
                     Longenecker. The author would also like to extend thanks to the Office of the Federal
                     Coordinator for their help in making this survey possible and to Richard Anthony and Tom
                     Matheson from the NWSO Wilmington, North Carolina, for their assistance in conducting the
                     survey.

                                                                    E-2

                                                                               *U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997 418-592/40031

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