    [From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

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            Natural Disaster Survey Report

            THE HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991
            East Coast of the United States ... Maine to Florida and
            Puerto Rico

            October 28 to November 1, 1991

                                OJ%

            U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
            k lational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
              ational Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

                                                                                                         I

                 Cover: Waves crashing into the Massachusetts shore at Nantasket Beach in Hull.
                 Photograph courtesy of Tom Horde and provided by the BOSTON GLOBE.

                                                                                                       I

                                   4T

                            VENT OF

                      Natural Disaster Survey Report

                      THE HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991
                      East Coast of the United States ... Maine to Florida and
                      Puerto Rico

                      October 28 to November 1, 1991

                      June 1992

                      U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
                      Barbara H. Franklin, Secretary

                      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                      Dr. John A. Knauss, Administrator

                      National Weather Service
                      Dr. Elbert W. Friday, Jr., Assistant Administrator
           Cn
                                LIBRARy
                              NOAA/cCEH
                           1990 HOBSON AVE.
     C-
                          CHAS. SC 29408-2623

                                                       PREFACE

                  Nor'easter storms are nothing new to residents along the east coast of the United
                  States. However, the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 lasted much longer and
                  impacted an area much larger than what is usually experienced. Due to the efforts of
                  NOAA/National Weather Service meteorologists and meteorological technicians from
                  San Juan, Puerto Rico, to Portland, Maine, the populace of the United States affected
                  by this storm was well served. I congratulate all concerned on their expertise and
                  professionalism in foreseeing this situation and properly responding.

                                                                Elbert W. riday, Jr.
                                                                Assistant Administrator
                                                                 for Weather Services

                                                                July 1992
                                                           --@Elbert W.

                                                 FOREWORD

               The report on the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 was prepared by the National
               Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Disaster Survey team following on-scene
               assessments and interviews conducted during the week of November 11, 1991. Such
               surveys are conducted at the direction of the Assistant Administrator for Weather
               Services whenever significant storms occur.

               National Weather Service employees; Federal, state, and local emergency services
               and other public officials; media representatives; and members of the general public
               from North Carolina to Maine were contacted and questioned specifically regarding the
               meteorological and oceanographic conditions that occurred, the timeliness and
               accuracy of National Weather Service actions in response to these conditions, and the
               appropriateness of responses to these actions.

               The team is grateful to the many people who helped before, during, and after these
               visits by gathering information and who took time from other activities to spend time
               with us.

                                                            The Disaster Survey Team

                                      TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                                                   PAGE

              Preface   ............................................                    ii

              Foreword    ..........................................                   H!

              Acronyms and Abbreviations       ...........................              v

              Disaster Survey Team Members        .........................            vi

              Executive Summary       ...................................            vii

              Findings and Recommendations         ........................            ix

              Chapter I     The Event and Its Impact     ....................           1

              Chapter 11    Scientific Analysis of Event    ..................       14

              Chapter III   Data Acquisition and Availability    ..............      40

              Chapter IV    Preparedness     .............................           46

              Chapter V     Warning Services     ..........................          50

              Chapter VI    Coordination and Dissemination       ..............      53

              Chapter VII   User Response     ............................           58

              Appendix A    Selected Office Coastal Flood Instructions      ......   A-1

              Appendix B    Selected State Forecast Discussions      ...........     B-1

              Appendix C    Selected Forecasts and Statements       ............     C-1

                                                  iv

                                        ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

                 AFOS                 Automation of Field Operations and Services
                 AVN                  Aviation Weather Forecast Model
                 CMAN                 Coastal Marine Automated Network
                 DST                  Disaster Survey Team
                 FEMA                 Federal Emergency Management Agency
                 ft                   Feet/Foot
                 GOES                 Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
                 kt                   Knots
                 LFM                  Limited-area Fine Mesh Model
                 MARMON               Marine Monitoring Program
                 mb                   Millibar
                 MIC                  Meteorologist in Charge
                 MLLW                 Mean Lower Low Water
                 MRPECS               NMC Marine Product, East Coast Storm Surge
                 NAWAS                National Warning System
                 NDBC                 National Data Buoy Center
                 NESDIS               National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
                 NGM                  Nested Grid Model
                 NGWLMS               Next Generation Water Level Measurement System
                 NHC                  National Hurricane Center
                 nm                   Nautical Miles
                 NMC                  National Meteorological Center
                 NOAA                 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                 NOS                  National Ocean Service
                 NWR                  NOAA Weather Radio
                 NWS                  National Weather Service
                 NWWS                 NOAA Weather Wire Services
                 NYSPIN               New York Statewide Police Information Network
                 PC                   Personal Computer
                 PNS                  Public Information Statements
                 SDM                  Station Duty Manual
                 SMS                  Satellite Marine Section
                 SOP                  Standard Operating Procedure
                 SWIS                 Satellite Weather Information System
                 USACE                United States Army Corps of Engineers
                 UTC                  Universal Coordinated Time
                 VAS                  VISSR Atmospheric Sounder
                 VDUC                 VAS Data Utilization Center
                 VISSR                Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer
                 WCM                  Warning Coordination Meteorologist
                 WLTS                 Water Level Telemetry System
                 WSFO                 Weather Service Forecast Office
                 WSMO                 Weather Service Meteorological Observatory
                 WSO                  Weather Service Office

                                                                     V

                                      DISASTER SURVEY TEAM MEMBERS

                   The Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 Natural Disaster Survey Team is listed below. To
                   more effectively investigate the storm, the Team Leader split the group in two. One half
                   consisting of Scavia, Waters, Thurm, Coleman, and Viets covered the area from the
                   Canadian border to Manasquan, New Jersey, while the other half with Shaffer, Koehn,
                   Feit, Businger, and Overland researched the area from Manasquan to Cape Hatteras,
                   North Carolina. Dr. Scavia led the northern group, and Dr. Shaffer led the southern
                   group. Additional information on damage in Florida and Puerto Rico was provided by
                   local offices and the Southern Region of the National Weather Service (NWS).

                                                       TEAM MEMBERS

                   Team Leader, Donald Scavia, Director, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal
                   Ocean Program                                                                   I

                   Team Technical Leader, Robert Jacobson, Meteorologist, NWS/Office of Meteorology/Marine and Applied
                   Services Branch

                   Field Representative, David Felt, Chief, NWS/National Meteorological Center (NMC)/Satellite and Marine
                   Section

                   Field Representative, Richard Coleman, Meteorologist in Charge/Area Manager, Weather Service Forecast
                   Office (WSFO) Memphis, Tennessee

                   Field Representative, Harvey Thurm, Regional Marine and Hurricane Prog ram Leader, NWS/Eastern
                   Region

                   NOAA Public Affairs Specialist, Patricia Viets, NWS/Public Affairs Office

                   Subject Matter Specialist, Marshall Waters, Chief, NOAA/Ocean Products Center

                   Subject Matter Specialist, Wilson Shaffer, Chief, NWS/Office of Systems Development/Marine Techniques
                   Branch

                   Subject Matter Specialist, Mark Koehn, Program Leader, NWS/Off ice of Meteorology/Tsunami and
                   Oceanographic Services Program

                   Subject Matter Specialist, James Overland, Chief, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Research
                   Laboratory/Marine Assessment Research Division

                   Non-Governmental Expert, Steven Buslnger, Professor, North Carolina State University/Marine, Earth, and
                   Atmospheric Science Department

                                                                 A

                                          EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

              Beginning on October 28 and lasting until November 1, 1991, a succession of
              meteorological events combined over the northwest Atlantic Ocean resulting in a
              series of extraordinary ocean waves and swells. Driven and maintained by persistent,
              near-hurricane force winds, these waves and swells spread to the south and
              southwest before crashing onto the North American coast and the northern shores of
              the islands of the western Atlantic. Although New England, closest to the storm,
              received the hardest' blows, widespread destruction was the rule as far south as Cape
              Hatteras, North Carolina, while scattered damage occurred to southern Florida and the
              north coast of Puerto Rico.

              During the course of its investigation, the NOAA Disaster Survey Team (DST) traveled
              along the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine. Overall, the Team found that the
              system established to develop and disseminate coastal flood watches, warnings, and
              statements worked well. The several NWS offices involved--national, regional, and
              local --recog n ized the threat early and did yeoman work in keeping Federal, state, and
              local emergency officials; the media; and the public informed with clear, concise, and
              timely products.

              The Team feels, however, that there are some problems that need to be addressed.
              These are discussed in the pages that follow and are summarized in the findings and
              recommendations section of this report. In general, there are three areas that require
              the most attention: data availability, guidance inadequacy, and public response.

              Data Availability

              All NWS warning products must begin with reliable and timely observations. The
              Team found that there are not enough water level observation sites along the East
              Coast. Where these sites do exist, there is not adequate real-time access by the
              forecasters to the data provided. Further, the Team found a disturbing shortage of
              basic marine weather observations available. Specifically, there are too few Coastal
              Marine Automated Network (OMAN) units and buoys along the East Coast. Thus, in
              many cases, the forecasters are not able to adequately monitor existing conditions.

              Guidance Inadequacy

              The various numerical models available provided forecasters with very good guidance
              on open ocean conditions and on the movements and intensity changes of the
              weather systems affecting the storm. However, the guidance as to coastal conditions
              was unreliable and, in at least one case, actually inhibited an early warning issuance.

                                                         vii,

                   Current development activities on an extratropical coastal storm surge model and a
                   coastal wave prediction system need to be accentuated.

                   Public Response

                   Excellent warnings and statements were disseminated by the NWS to state and local
                   emergency service officials and to the media. In general, the response by these
                   groups of people was excellent. The media forwarded this information to the public in
                   a timely fashion. The emergency service personnel were ready ahead of time to take
                   appropriate actions.

                   In most cases, however, the public either did not respond or they responded
                   improperly. Many people did not perceive this coastal storm as a threat to them. It is
                   apparent to the Team that a public education campaign is needed to make sure
                   people understand the potential of coastal flooding. Such a campaign needs to
                   include the utilization of the NOAA Weather Radio (NWR). The radio's effectiveness
                   in such places as the Outer Banks of North Carolina highlights its potential as a tool
                   for alerting and informing the public.

                                                           viii

                               FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

              THE EVENT AND ITS IMPACT (CHAPTER 1)

              Finding 1:
                  A coastal flood of unusually long duration and intensity occurred during late
                  October 1991, affecting areas along the entire east coast of the United States and
                  Puerto Rico. This storm caused millions of dollars in damage to beaches and
                  man-made beachfront structures, including the seaside home of President George
                  Bush.

              -DATA ACQUISITION- AND AVAILABILITY (CHAPTER 111)

              Finding 2:
                  The availability and continuity of an adequate, reliable, and timely data base
                  (consisting of meteorological observations, sea state conditions, and water level
                  measurements) is vital if NWS offices are to provide accurate and timely coastal
                  flood watches and warnings. This includes those areas behind barrier islands,
                  particularly where large rivers or embayments are involved (e.g., Pamlico Sound)
                  so that adequate warning for seiches and coastal flooding can be given.

              Recommendation 2-1:
                  NWS and National Ocean Service (NOS) should implement a system that will
                  ensure that local NWS offices will have real-time, 24-hour access to reliable water
                  level measurements especially from critical tide gage stations. This should
                  include those stations behind the various oceanic barriers. The availability of
                  these data is vital to NWS offices responsible for issuing coastal flood watches
                  and warnings.

              Recommendation 2-2:
                  The phaseover from the Water Level Telemetry System (WLTS) to Next
                  Generation Water Level Measurement System (NGWLMS) technology must be
                  accomplished only after all questions and reservations about the new system have
                  been answered and the operational implementation of the new system has been
                  agreed to by both NWS and NOS.

              Recommendation 2-3:
                  The NWS should install an adequate marine observational network that would fill
                  the gaps in the current arrangement and would provide the minimum coverage
                  necessary for the reconfigured forecast areas in the modernized NWS. This
                  network should include shoreline/shallow water wave height measurements.

                                                      ix

                 Finding 3:
                     A water level value relayed to WSFO Portland, Maine, from a properly operating
                     gage was discounted by forecasters due to past problems with the gage. The
                     coastal flood warning was issued only after electronics technicians verified that the
                     earlier reading was correct, some 3 hours after the threshold value was reached.

                 Recommendation 3-1:
                     Water levels should be monitored on a regular basis, either manually or
                     automatically, so that NWS forecasters are aware of possible gage problems and
                     so that water level trends can be observed.

                 Finding 4:
                     Marine weather data are not as accessible to NWS forecasters as are land-based
                     data making the use of this information more difficult.

                 Recommendation 4-1:
                     The NWS should ensure that marine weather data are integrated into the
                     Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) hourly surface plots for use
                     at local offices having marine responsibility. The Ocean Products Center should
                     seek other ways to bring needed data to the high seas forecasters of the Satellite
                     Marine Section (SMS) at NMC.

                 Recommendation 4-2:
                     The NWS should explore adapting the marine monitoring (MARMON) program,
                     developed at WSFO Cleveland and utilized across the Great Lakes, to assist
                     forecasters in monitoring conditions along the East Coast.

                 PREPAREDNESS(CHAPTERIV)

                 Finding 5:
                     On-station standard operating procedures (SOP) varied widely from one station to
                     another. In some cases, guidance materials were not complete or clear enough
                     for a station's most inexperienced members to carry out their duties with the
                     confidence that they had enough information to make the best decisions possible.

                 Recommendation 5-1:
                     All local managers should review their Station Duty Manuals (SDM), checklists,
                     emergency procedures, etc., regarding coastal flooding to ensure they are
                     complete, clear, concise, and up to date.

                 Finding 6:
                     Station drills on coastal flooding are not common practice. at all offices having
                     such responsibility.

                                                      x

               Recommendation 6-1:
                   Drills should be scheduled at all stations with a frequency that will keep coastal
                   flood procedures fresh in the minds of all watchstanders. Actual coastal flood
                   events could be substituted for a drill.

               WARNING SERVICES (CHAPTER V)

               Finding 7:
                   NMC and coastal WSFOs and Weather Service Offices (WSO) recognized the
                   potential for a dangerous ocean storm several days before the storm's major
                   impact on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coastlines. Overall, notification of
                   emergency officials and watch/warning lead times were sufficient for effective
                   preparedness actions yielding a remarkably low loss of life.

               Recommendation 7-1:
                   Appropriate recognition is warranted for individuals and organizations who played
                   pivotal roles in ensuring the effective performance of the warning process.

               Finding 8:
                   Overall, the various atmospheric models performed well. However, statistical
                   output from the NMC Marine Product-East Coast Storm Surge (MRPECS)
                   program was consistently too conservative for this storm and may have inhibited
                   warning effectiveness. Also, forecasters were unfamiliar with its usefulness in
                   forecasting wave conditions during long duration storms.

               Recommendation 8-1:
                   NOAA should be encouraged to complete the development of an extratropical
                   storm surge model.

               Recommendation 8-2:
                   NOAA should finalize development of a replacement for the MRPECS program
                   having sufficient resolution and coupling the NMC deep water wave model to the
                   shallow, coastal areas. Further, NWS should ensure that, once developed, the
                   benefits and utilities of this guidance are made known to field personnel.

               Finding 9:
                   In some cases, the public was drawn to the coast to witness the power of the
                   heavy surf. This created traffic problems that may have obstructed emergency
                   actions.

               Recommendation 9-1:
                   NWS offices, working with local emergency managers, are encouraged to develop
                   wording for use in coastal products designed to discourage spectators from going
                   to the coast during coastal flood and high surf episodes.

                                                           A

                 COORDINATION AND DISSEMINATION (CHAPTER VI)

                 Finding 10:
                     Although NAWAS (National Warning System) was used, its fullest capability was
                     not realized because dissemination to local offices was slow or did not occur.

                 Recommendation 10-1:
                     NWS managers at all levels should work with their NAWAS system managers to
                     review dissemination procedures and see if these can be strengthened.

                 Finding 11:
                     The NOAA Weather Wire Services (NWWS) does not appear to be the total
                     answer for disseminating emergency weather information to state and local
                     emergency service managers.

                 Recommendation 11 -1:
                     The NWS needs to strongly encourage those states subscribing to the NWWS to
                     install automatic systems for distributing emergency information to appropriate
                     local officials. Other alternatives for quickly and personally delivering such
                     information to key state and local decision makers, such as the New York
                     Statewide Police Information Network (NYSPIN), need to be explored and
                     developed.

                 USER RESPONSE (CHAPTER VII)

                 Finding 12:
                     Response by the emergency management community and by the various media
                     was generally excellent. Public response to this storm, and to coastal flood
                     watches and warnings in general, was generally poor.

                 Recommendation 12-1:
                     The rapport and personal contacts between NWS officials and emergency
                     managers at all levels must be maintained especially during the NWS
                     modernization. This can be accomplished only through frequent visits between
                     NWS personnel and state and local emergency officials. The NWS should look at
                     other ways of coordinating with and informing emergency managers at whatever
                     level is necessary during time-critical events.

                 Recommendation 12-2:
                     The NWS should investigate whether some minimum standard of preparedness
                     training should be provided, through briefings or some other mechanism, to high
                     level officials (e.g., mayors and governors) who can play a critical role in
                     responses (e.g., evacuations)-to emergency situations.

                 Findinq 13:
                     Many residents contacted by the DST said that they did not think the storm would
                     be as devastating as it was and took no action to protect their property or to

                                                         xii

                  evacuate. Since this was not a hurricane and, in many locations, was not
                  accompanied by "significant weather," the storm was not perceived as a real
                  danger.

              Recommendation 13-1:
                  The NWS should investigate the feasibility of developing an intensity scale for
                  extratropical storms patterned after the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale
                  for tropical systems.

              Recommendation 13-2.
                  NWS offices are strongly encouraged to continue the practice of comparing
                  potentially damaging storms with noteworthy storms,of the past, thereby
                  increasing the sense of urgency to the general public.

              Recommendation 13-3:
                  NWS should produce a pamphlet dedicated solely to coastal flooding. This needs
                  to be done as part of a systematic public information campaign designed to
                  educate the coastal public on the dangers of coastal storms. This campaign could
                  also include press conferences, now used to increase hurricane awareness, public
                  information statements (PNS), and Public Service Announcements.

              Finding 14:
                  Especially in New England, the NWR is not used by the general public as widely
                  as it could be.

              Recommendation 14-1:
                  The existence of NWR needs to be more highly publicized. In communities where
                  NWR is widely accepted (e.g., the Cape Hatteras area), it is highly successful in
                  keeping both local officials and the general public informed. Local managers
                  should use whatever publicity sources they have available, including Public
                  Service Announcements in the local media to encourage the use of NWR.

                                                       xiii

                               CHAPTER I -- THE EVENT AND ITS IMPACT

                A series of extraordinary meteorological events during the week of October 27, 1991,
                set the stage for a major coastal flood and erosion event. Although principally
                affecting sections of the East Coast from Maine through North Carolina, the impact of
                the storm was felt south from there to the southernmost reaches of Florida, across
                much of the Bahamas, and as far south as Puerto Rico. Flooding began early and
                continued throughout the week. The worst impacts, however, were experienced on
                October 30 and 31. For this reason, the storm will likely go down in the annals of
                meteorological history as the "Halloween Nor'easter of 1991."

                The event was especially noteworthy for the following reasons.

                a.  The storm was of unusually long duration. For example, in North Carolina a
                    heavy surf advisory was in effect for 5.5 days, and a coastal flood warning was in
                    effect for 3.5 days.

                b.  With the exception of Cape Cod and the eastern shore of Massachusetts which
                    experienced hurricane force wind gusts and heavy rain, the coastal flooding along
                    the remainder of the East Coast was accompanied by relatively benign weather.

                c.  The coastal flooding was generated by three separate and distinct synoptic-scale
                    systems which contributed individually and in combination to produce the
                    damaging high seas.

                d.  Coastal flooding was exacerbated when the intense extratropical storm, the third
                    and most potent of the three systems, moved in a very atypical path (i.e., from
                    east to west to south) almost totally opposite the normal storm track, keeping the
                    wave-generating fetch much closer to and pointed directly toward the North
                    American mainland.

                An extensive discussion of the meteorology associated with the Halloween
                Nor'easter of 1991 is contained in Chapter 11. For the purposes of this chapter, the
                impacts from the interactions of the various weather features will all be con6%idered
                together under the generic term "storm."

                The wind fields generated by the storm covered an extremely large area extending
                hundreds of miles. This resulted in a tremendous fetch length ranging from south of
                Labrador to the coast of Florida (figure 1). As the winds persisted, they generated
                seas over 40 feet (ft) in height. This was somewhat similar to the "Ash Wednesday

                                                                              Survey Area

                                                 L-                        Approximate Storm Track

                                                                                                       P1

                              ........     ....
                              .......      ......

                              .........    .........
                               ........    ..........
                               ........    ...........
                               .......      ...........
                                 ......     ...........
                                  ...        ..........
                                              ...........
                                              ...........
                                               ...........
                                                 ..........
                                                               Other Impact Areas

                                                          ..........

                                           Figure 1. Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 ... Overview

                                                                    2

               Storm" of March 1962, in that the long fetch all 'owed big waves to develop. In areas
               close to the center of such a tempest, most of the wind energy generally goes into
               forming shorter-period, wind-driven waves. However, as these waves propagate away
               from the storm, they are damped much more than are the longer-period waves. What
               results is called a swell (i.e., the long-period waves that can travel to and impact a
               coastline thousands of miles away. An excellent example is the swells that crash on
               the beaches of Oahu, Hawaii. These are often generated by systems halfway across
               the Pacific and impact Oahu days later.)

               Developing after October 27, these swells, traveling unobstructed to the south and
               southwest, had a clear path to the United States.coast bringing abnormally high waves
               and extreme water levels. Indeed, ocean levels were raised to such an extent that the
               water acted almost like a dam retarding outward tidal flows and even inhibiting river
               waters from disgorging into the sea. Flooding in low-lying areas caused by the backup
               of such flows was seen in such unlikely places as along the Hudson River north to
               Albany and Troy, New York, and the Potomac River north to metropolitan Washington,
               D.C. Both of these are over 100 miles from the sea.

               Near the coast, the ocean responds to any noreaster through storm surge as well as
               through local wave generation. The term "storm surge" is defined as the difference
               between the observed tide gage water level and the predicted astronomical tide level.
               Note that this definition excludes waves. These features are damped out by the
               action of the stilling-well, that part of a tidal gage system holding the water to be
               measured, and by the longer averaging time of most tide gages.

               Tide'gages along the East Coast measured storm surges that ranged from just over
               5 ft at Boston's gage to roughly 2 ft along North Carolina's Outer Banks. (See tables I
               and 11 for water levels measured during this storm and for comparisons with earlier
               record levels.)

               Damage along the coastlines was caused by a combination of relatively high tides,
               high storm surge levels, and large waves which for several days continuously pounded
               the shoreline. At low tide, even a fairly large wave will have comparatively little impact
               on structures. However, when the water level at low tide raises to equal the mean
               high water mark, the threat from such waves increases. When several feet of storm
               surge strikes the coastline coincident with high tide, these waves can cause profound
               damage of the type incurred from this storm.

               As experienced during the Halloween Noreaster of 1991, a storm of long duration
               will impact several tidal cycles. (On the East Coast, one tide cycle is completed about
               every 12 1/2 hours.) This is in contrast to a fast-moving storm, like a hurricane, where
               only those tide levels during the few hours of the event are critical.

                                                            3

                                                                               TABLE I
                                   MAXIMUM STORM SURGE - HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991

                            Station                           Date/Time                Obsvd.             Pred.              Diff.

                            Eastport, ME                      10/301048                4.99               2.30               2.69
                            Cutler, ME                        10/30 1000               4.14               1.32               2.82
                            Portland, ME                      10/301112                5.13               1.61               3.52
                            Boston, MA                        10/302042                8.57               3.46               5.11
                            Woods Hole, MA                    10/302318                5.07               0.72               4.35
                            Nantucket, MA                     10/30  1500              7.42               2.82               4.60
                            Newport, RI                       10/31  0106              7.32               3.30               4.02
                            Providence, RI                    10/31  0130              7.95               4.54               3.41
                            New London, CT                    10/31  0312              6.69               2.65               4.04
                            Montauk, NY                       10/31  0218              6.60               2.16               4.44
                            Bridgeport, CT                    10/31  0500              11.50              6.64               4.86
                            Port Jefferson, NY                10/31  0425              11.63              6.78               4.85
                            Willets Point, NY                 10/31  0436              12.24              7.15               5.09
                            The Battery, NY                   10/31  0430              8.42               3.48               4.94
                            Sandy Hook, NJ                    10/31  0406              8.38               3.44               4.94
                            Barnegat Inlet, NJ                10/31  0654              4.49               0.22               4.27
                            Atlantic City, NJ                 10/31  0718              5.31               0.66               4.65
                            Cape May, NJ                      10/31  0800              4.55               0.65               3.90
                            Philadelphia, PA                  10/31  1600              5.27               1.21               4.06
                            Lewes, DE                         10/31  0906              4.56               0.66               3.90
                            Ocean City, MD                    10/31  1848              4.68               0.88               3.80
                            Cambridge, MD                     11/01  0548              2.67               0.46               2.21
                            Annaplois, MD                     11/01  0530              3.18               0.54               2.64
                            Baltimore, MD                     11/01  0712              3.19               0.43               2.76
                            Washington, DC                    11/01  1200              3.75               0.99               2.76
                            Colonial Beach, VA                11/01  0400              3.07               0.27               2.80
                            Lewisetta, VA                     11/01  0200              3.03               0.41               2.62
                            Hampton Roads, VA                 10/31  1900              4.78               1.85               2.93
                            Ches.Bay Brdg., VA                10/31  1800              5.08               1.85               3.23
                            Cape Hatteras, NC                 11/01  0600              3.93               1.78               2.15

                            Notes:
                            Date/Time shows the month and day and the hour and minute (in EST) of the maximum storm surge.

                            Observed and Predicted values are listed in feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW).

                            The Difference between the Observed and Predicted values is defined as the Storm Surge.

                                                                                      4

                                                        TABLE 11
                       MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS - HALLOWEEN NOR'EASTER OF 1991
                                        WITH HISTORICAL COMPARISONS

                   STATION                        Date/Time              Obsvd.     Record     Height
                                                                                      Date     Elev.
                   Eastport, ME                   10/30  1606            20.24      6/77       24.12
                   Cutler, ME                     10/30  1612            15.18      1/79       17.32
                   Portland, ME                   10/30  1636            12.78      2/78       14.17
                   Boston, MA                     10/30  1654            14.29      2/78       15.25
                   Woods Hole, MA                 10/31  0100             5.22      8/54       10.39
                   Nantucket, MA                  10/30  1730             8.11      1/87        6.58
                   Newport, RI                    10/31  0136             7.34      9/38       13.53
                   Providence, RI                 10/31  0136             7.81      9/38       17.71
                   New London, CT                 10/31  0330             6.65      9/38       10.76
                   Montauk, NY                    10/31  0306             6.57      8/54        8.68
                   Bridgeport, CT                 10/31  0518            11.55      9/38       12.44
                   Port Jefferson, NY             10/31  0530            11.62      2/78       12.12
                   Willets Point, NY              10/31  0524            12.39      9/38       16.90
                   The Battery, NY                10/31  0324             8.94      9/60       10.23
                   Sandy Hook, NJ                 10/31  0248             8.80      3/62       10.33
                   Barnegat Inlet,   NJ           10/31  0230             5.27      8/76        5.48
                   Atlantic City,   NJ            10/31  0154             8.19      9/44        9.20
                   Cape May, NJ                   10/31  1512             8.43      9/85        9.09
                   Philadelphia,  PA              10/31  2024             9.04      11/50      10.79
                   Lewes, DE                      10/31  1500             7.81      3/62        9.49
                   Ocean CitYr MD                 10/31  1348             7.16      9/85        7.54
                   Cambridger MD                  10/31  2318             4.50      9/79        4.87
                   Baltimorer MD                  11/01  0200             4.03      8/33        7.93
                   Annapolis, MD                  11/01  0036             3.85      8/33        6.40
                   Washington, DC                 11/01  0254             5.34      10/42      11.29
                   Colonial Beach, VA             11/01  0942             4.32      9/79        4.36
                   Lewisetta, VA                  11/01  0818             4.01      3/83        3.62
                   Hampton Roads, VA              10/31  1618             5.61      8/33        8.39
                   Ches.Bay Brdg., VA             10/31  1512             5.83      4/78        6.36
                   Cape HatteraSr NC              10/31  1336             5.64      9/85        5.84

                   Note:
                   Date/Time shows the month and day     and the hour and minute (in     EST) of the
                   highest observed water level.

                   The highest observed water level is given in feet above Mean Lower Low Water
                   (MLLW).

                   The Record Height contains the month and year when the highest water level
                   was measured and the height of that measurement in feet above MLLW.

                   Tables 1 and 2 are derived from NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM NOS
                   OES, Effects of the Late October 1991 North Atlantic Extra-
                   Tropical Storm on Water Levels, dated January, 1992.

                                                             5

                 This storm came less than one week after spring tides, the highest tides of the month.
                 Had the storm come 5 days earlier, astronomical tides would have been about 1 ft
                 higher along most of the coast--approximately 1 1/2 ft higher at Boston. As a rule,
                 adding the value of the astronomical tide to the storm surge seems to hold. That
                 would imply that water levels at Boston would have been about 1 1/2 ft above the
                 levels they actually experienced, while other locations would have been about a foot
                 above observed levels. This extra 1 1/2 ft might have been enough to flood,part of
                 the downtown section of the city.

                 The closest in-shore wave gage data were observed approximately 2 miles offshore
                 near the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) pier at Duck, North Carolina
                 (figure 2). There, wave heights of 14 ft were observed on the afternoon of
                 October 30. The buoy at Diamond Shoals, 12 nautical miles (nm) southeast of Cape
                 Hatteras, North Carolina, observed its highest waves (25-27 ft) at roughly the same
                 time. These waves are clearly swell, indicated by their long (18 second) wave
                 periods. A buoy within sight of Boston (figure 3) measured significant wave heights of
                 over 30 ft-- some of the highest waves ever recorded at that location by the
                 NWS/National Data Buoy Center (NDBC).

                 In the hardest hit New England communities, seashore homes, roads, sewer/water
                 lines, docks and piers, and coastal protection projects (e.g., seawalls, revetments and
                 groins) were primary targets. Barrier beaches were breached and sand dunes and
                 coastal bluffs eroded. In some cases up to 50 ft of dunes, beaches, or salt marshes
                 vanished. There were some reports of oil spills.

                 Also hard hit were New England lighthouses. For example, the storm extinguished the
                 light in the Isles of Shoals Lighthouse (figure 4) and destroyed its generator, control
                 huts, boathouse and ramp, and a walkway from the helicopter pad to the house. Its
                 emergency horn and one fuel tank were missing, and two fuel tanks were knocked
                 over.

                 The most visible casualty of the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 was President Bush's
                 house located in Kennebunkport, Maine. The President's home, which has withstood
                 many past storms, suffered severe damage to its ground floor from wave battering.
                 The degree of damage to the President's house and other structures along the coast
                 served to highlight the awesome power of the ocean and th6 problems faced by an
                 increasing population along the Nation's shorelines.

                 Without a doubt, the east coast and coincident islands of Massachusetts, being
                 closest to and directly downfetch from the strongest core of the storm, took the most
                 severe pounding. It was locally compared with the Blizzard of February 1978, which
                 has been considered the benchmark nor'easter in this area. Particularly hard hit were
                 parts of Salisbury, Gloucester, Revere, Lynn, Hull, Scituate (especially Peggotty Beach
                 and the Humarock area), Marshfield, Plymouth (Whitehorse Beach), Chatham

                                                           6

                                                                                                                Atlantic City

                                                                                                                           Ventnor Pier

                                                                                                                      Ocean City

                                                                                                                Dewey
                                                                                                                Rehoboth
                                                                                                                Bethany

                                                                                                Sandbridge Beach

                                                                            Albemarle Sound

                                                                                                     Duck Pier
                                                                                                       Kitty Hawk
                                                                                                        Kill Devil Hills
                                                                                           N    Hea
                                                                                                      MOregon Inlet

                                                                                                uxton
                                                                     Pamlico Sound           H.Ileras On MDiamond Shoals

                                                                                               Ocracoke

                                 Figure 2. MId-AtIantIc Locations Impacted by the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991.

                                                                                    7

                                                                             MDR 1

                                                                       MISM1
                                                                 IOSN3    044005
                                                                44013

                                           A N6            UZM3    044008
                                                    44025                         44011

                                                44012        0 44004
                                                44009

                                           CHLV2

                                             44014

                                             DSLN7
                                                         41001

                      Figure 3. Buoy and C-MAN Stations - Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States.

                                                     8

                                                                                                                                  Matinicus Rock

                                                                                                                           Portland Harbor
                                                                                                          Portsmouth     Kennebunkport
                                                                                                                         Isle of Shoals
                                                                                                            Hampton   Salisbury

                                                                                                                Lynn    Gloucester
                                                                                                           Revere
                                                                                                             Hull     Boston Harbor
                                                                                                     Cohasset Beac      Scituate
                                                                                                              arshfield
                                                                                                              Plymouth

                                                                                                                                    Chatham

                                                                         Bri geport                                           1&antucket
                                                                                                       Pt. Judith

                                                                                                     hampton Beach
                                                                       Seagat                   @W-tl
                                                      Staten Island
                                                                         Ambrose Light

                                                   Atlantic City
                                                                Ventnor Pier

                                                            Ocean City

                                                                   Figure 4. Nortbeast Locations Impacted by the Halloween Noreaster of 1991.

                 (especially North Beach and Morris Island areas), and Nantucket (especially Brant
                 Point). In the town of Scituate alone, according to the American Red Cross, over
                 1000 single-family dwellings were impacted by the storm with 118 destroyed and
                 453 suffering major damage.

                 Besides extensive structural damage to public and private facilities along the
                 Massachusetts coast, considerable boating and fishing gear damage also occurred.
                 The damage to and loss of lobster pots may well have devastating results to people in
                 an industry that has already been experiencing hard economic times.

                 Relatively few casualties resulted in Massachusetts, however. A 62-year-old man,
                 suffered a fatal heart attack in Quincy after tying down his yacht. The Coast Guard is
                 investigating the disappearance of the "Andrea Gail," a deep sea fishing boat with a
                 crew of five out of Gloucester which was reported lost out in the Georges Banks. Two
                 elderly people apparently suffered minor injuries from the wind on Nantucket. A
                 summation of casualties and damages is included in table Ill.

                 The coastal flood damage dwarfed the significance of other aspects of the storm.
                 However, because Massachusetts was close enough to the storm's core to receive its
                 full effect, high winds resulted in some direct property damage and caused power
                 outages by downed tree limbs. Additionally, heavy rainfall occurred in some
                 southeastern areas of the state (e.g., 5.57 inches at Blue Hill, Massachusetts,
                 Observatory).

                 Across coastal sections of Maine and New Hampshire, the most significant damage
                 was limited to those communities which received direct wave battering from the ocean.
                 According to the American Red Cross, 16 single-family dwellings were destroyed while
                 another 51 suffered major damage in York County, Maine. Portsmouth, New
                 Hampshire, suffered a similar blow with 19 single-family dwellings destroyed and 130
                 reporting major damage. The Hampton area of New Hampshire was also particularly
                 hard hit. In Kennebunkport, outside of the destruction noted to the President's home,
                 fishermen lost an estimated $1.5 million in gear.

                 Rhode Island and Connecticut were somewhat protected from the most direct effects
                 of the storm. However, some coastal damage similar to that described above was felt.
                 Also, a fisherman was presumed to have been swept off the rocks and drowned near
                 Pt. Judith.

                 The coastal regions of New York and New   Jersey were impacted to a lesser degree,
                 although extensive coastal flooding and beach erosion occurred (figure 5). Homes
                 (basements and first levels), public buildings, coastal roads, and railroad tracks were
                 flooded. In Suffolk County on Long Island's south shore, more than 40 residences
                 were destroyed and another 35 seriously damaged. Also particularly hard hit was the
                 private community of Seagate located just west of Coney Island in New York City.

                                                           10

                                                                 TABLE III
                                       DAMAGE ESTIMATES (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

                                               Damage Estimates (millions of dollars)

                         States             Death           Injury             Sum        AIA*      NFIP**     Other#

                         ME                     0                0              3.0                     1.5        1.5
                         NH                     0                0                .7           -         .7          -
                         MA                     2                2             110.1       40.0        65.6        4.5
                         RI                     1                0              5.0         5.0           -          -
                         CT                     0                0              3.9          3.0         .9          -
                         NY                     4                0              31.2       10.0        16.2        5.0
                         NJ                     0                0              8.4         2.0         5.4        1.0
                         DE                     0                0                 -           -          -          -
                         MD                     0                0
                         DC                     0                0                 -                                 -
                         VA                     0                0                .1                      -          .1
                         NC                     0                0              2.2                     2.2          -
                         SC                     0                0                 -                      -
                         GA                     0                0                 -                                 -
                         FL                     0                14             3.1                                3.1
                         PR                     0                0                 -                                 -
                         OFSHR                  5                0                .5                      -          .5

                         TOTAL                  12               16            168.2       60.0        92.5       15.7

                             Derived from statistics provided by the American Insurance Association (AIA). Claims
                             represent losses primarily from wind damage.

                             Derived from statistics provided by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
                             Claims represent losses primarily from water damage.

                             Damages were below the insurance organization's threshold, were considered to be
                             too minor for tabulation, or were unreported.

                             Estimates of other losses were made where possible using existing information.
                             However, millions of dollars in losses due to non-insured "public" items, such as
                             cleanup costs, beach erosion, seawall and pier damage, lighthouse damage, etc., are
                             not included in this list. Also not available are specific tourist dollar losses.

                  Portions of the boardwalks in Atlantic City and Ocean City, New Jersey, were
                  extensively damaged. Further, the widespread flooding closed off two major roadways
                  into Atlantic City for several hours. The resulting cancellation of buses carrying
                  tourists into the cities' casinos caused a significant economic loss to the area.

                  The New York and New Jersey coastal regions witnessed at least four storm-related
                  casualties. On October 30 at the height of the storm, an Air National Guard helicopter
                  crashed about 60 miles south of Long Island during a rescue mission. (The.helicopter
                  ran out of fuel.) Four of the five-person crew were rescued; the fifth member was
                  neverfound.

                  That same night, a man who was fishing alone on a Meadowbrook Parkway
                  drawbridge fell to his death. The specific cause of his death is unknown. On
                  November 2, the body of a teenage boy, believed to be 1 of 2 Staten Island youths
                  who disappeared while fishing during the storm, washed up in the Belford section of
                  Middletown Township. A Coast Guard helicopter unsuccessfully searched the area for
                  the second youth. The Coast Guard did, however, successfully rescue 10 people from
                  the turbulent waters of Long Island Sound during the storm.

                  Along the Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia coasts, moderate to severe beach erosion
                  occurred primarily on October 30 and 31. In Delaware, damage was most extensive
                  at Bethany, Dewey, and Rehoboth Beaches. Along the Virginia coast, most of the
                  damage-occurred along Sandbridge Beach. One bridge access washed out in
                  Hampton Roads. In Maryland, Ocean City officials assessed the damage as
                  "minimal." This may, however, have been the.result of a beach renourishment/dune

                           -13
                           ti          rli
                                                                                        h7
                                                                         @b

                                             MINN
                                             ,, V-11

                                                                                   '01

                                                              oe
                                                                 A

                                                                                   7.,

                                   7@,

                        Figure 5. Support pilings, previously buried, have been exposed by severe water action,
                        Westhampton Beach, New York. Photo courtesy of Mark Waters

                                                            12

                project completed earlier this year designed specifically to protect the community from
                storms such as this.

                While the Mid-Atlantic coastline of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia was spared the
                worst effects of this event, the story was different for portions of the North Carolina
                shoreline. The extended effects of the storm were most apparent in this region.
                Sustained winds reached gale force on the Outer Banks, but the weather was
                characterized by mostly clear skies. Ocean flooding and waves were the only
                significant sources of destruction. Damage was limited to the ocean beachfront of
                Currituck and Dare Counties north from Cape Hatteras.

                While flooding in North Carolina reached its maximum on October 31, pounding surf
                attacked and eroded the protective dunes for days before and after that time. Along
                the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, the dunes were cut in over a dozen places.
                Sand from the ocean side was washed hundreds of yards inland almost crossing the
                narrow island. Highway 12 was closed first by water and later by sand deposits up to
                4 ft deep. Ferry service to Hatteras Island from Ocracoke was suspended because of
                flooding near the ferry dock.

                The towns of Nags Head, Kitty Hawk, and Kill Devil Hills had flooding for several
                blocks inland from the beach. Several homes and two or three motels were destroyed
                or severely damaged by the surf. A total of 76 buildings were condemned in Dare
                County, North Carolina, alone. Many suffered structural damage while others were
                condemned because their sewage systems were exposed. The flooding has been
                called the worst to affect the Outer Banks since the Ash Wednesday Storm of
                March 1962.

                South from North Carolina, damage was less severe and the impacted areas more
                widely separated. However, effects were reported even along the north coast of
                Puerto Rico, parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and exposed shores of the Bahamas. In
                Florida, over $3 million in damage and 14 minor injuries were attributed to the swell
                generated by the storm. This included the destruction of that portion of the Lake
                Worth, Florida, pier on which an NOS tide gage and an NWS CMAN       *unit were
                located. Again, the wave action, spawned over 1000 nm from where the waves
                reached shore, was the primary cause of the damage.

                Overall casualty and damage estimates from the storm are summarized in table Ill.

                An additional factor should be noted. About a week after this storm, a second coastal
                flood episode impacted the Mid-Atlantic coast. Weakened by the battering from
                7 days earlier, many coastal sand dunes could not provide the protection normally
                expected. Also, several structures that withstood the earlier assault fell during this
                second attack. These damages would probably not have occurred without the
                Halloween Nor'easter of 1991.

                                                           13

                            CHAPTER 11 -- SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS OF EVENT

                 OVERVIEW

                 As briefly mentioned in Chapter 1, three significant meteorological systems contributed
                 to the coastal flooding and wave damage along the east coast of the United States
                 during the week of October 27-November 2, 1991.

                 System number 1. On October 26, buoy reports indicated an intensifying subtropical
                 low near Bermuda was beginning to generate large oceanic swells. By October 27,
                 this low had evolved first into a tropical storm and then quickly strengthened to
                 become a late season hu rricane--G race. Located about 200 nm southwest of
                 Bermuda, Hurricane Grace was forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to
                 move northwest, in a general direction toward the North Carolina coast, but to remain
                 well offshore. The winds generated by this storm provided a significant northeast to
                 easterly fetch along the United States east coast south of the Virginia Cape$ and were
                 the primary cause of heavy surf along the Outer Banks.

                 System number 2. As Grace was intensifying, a near record 1046 millibar (mb)
                 anticyclone which had been building over northern Quebec began spreading high
                 pressure southward. By October 28, the leading edge of this deep air mass, marked
                 by a strong cold front, had pushed southward through North Carolina east of the
                 Appalachian Mountains and southeastward over the North Atlantic across Nova Scotia
                 and New England. In so doing, it stopped the hurricane's drift toward the coast and
                 forced it to turn northward. The high persisted through midweek dominating the entire
                 Eastern Seaboard.

                 System number 3. As the cold front moved offshore, a low pressure cell, which had
                 formed on and was traveling northeast along this front, reached the ocean southeast
                 of the Canadian Maritimes. This occurred simultaneously with Grace reaching its
                 maximum potency. Encountering Grace's circulation and moisture, this low stalled
                 and strengthened. Fed by a combination of cold, dry, arctic air from the high and
                 warm, moist, subtropical air from Grace, the low, located near 38ON 60OW, became
                 extremely intense having a central pressure of about 972 mb. The rapidity of the
                 intensification is shown by the fact that beginning at 12 Universal Coordinated Time
                 (UTC), October 29, the central pressure dropped about 15 mb in 12 hours and about
                 28 mb in 24 hours. By this time, the low had sapped the energy and absorbed the
                 remnants of Hurricane Grace and, as the high weakened, had begun a westward drift
                 toward the upper east coast of the United States.

                                                           14

               The combination of these three factors--hurricane, strengthening low south of the
               Maritimes, and high pressure along the East Coast--produced a nearly 1200 nm fetch
               of gale and storm force north to northeast winds from Newfoundland to the Florida
               coast which was to continue. for days.

               DAILY SYNOPSES

               SATURDAY, October 26,1991

               At 06 UTC, satellite imagery and data buoy reports suggested that a surface
               subtropical low, centered at 270N 660W, was strengthening. In its high seas forecast,
               the NHC was carrying a gale warning in association with this system. At the same
               time the imagery hinted of some amplification of an inverted upper air trough to the
               northeast of this low.

               The 00 UTC run of the NMC aviation weather forecast (AVN) model supported the
               continued amplification of the inverted trough by tightening the gradient north of 350N
               during the next 48 hours. Such amplification generally indicates that the low will
               continue to intensify.

               At this same time, a weak wave appeared in the lower Midwest, on a cold front
               extending northeast into Canada. This front denoted the leading edge of a deep,
               strong anticyclone that had formed over the Northwest Territories and intensified over
               Quebec.

               Figures 6 through 17 contain extracts from the NMC surface analyses from
               October 27 through November 1. Figures 18 through 25 contain infrared (18-21) and
               water vapor (22-25) satellite photographs for this same period.

               SUNDAY, October 27,1991

               At 16 UTC, the subtropical low, now located at 30.40N 66.60W, had intensified and
               reached tropical storm status. NHC named it Grace. Satellite imagery indicated it had
               a slow westward movement. Storm force winds extended out to 350 nm from Grace's
               center over its northern semicircle while winds to 30 knots (kt) continued out another
               130 nm. By 22 UTC, Grace, continuing to strengthen, was upgraded to hurricane
               status.                                       I

               Coincidentally, a strong short-wave trough aloft, associated with the Canadian cold
               front, moved along the U.S.-Canadian border throughout the day. During the night,
               the cold front passed through New England toward the south and southeast. The
               wave, now a low but still weak, was centered over eastern Lake Ontario and was
               forecast by the AVN model to move east-southeast to roughly 430N 580W. At this
               same time, the high, continuing to build, was forecast to follow along moving from just
               east of Hudson Bay to the east-southeast. The result of all this would be a greatly
               increased pressure gradient along the east coast of the U.S. during the next 36 hours.

                                                          15

                                                                             41

                                                                                                   09

                                         4

                                                                                               so-

                                                             tS

                                                                       Ca

                                        Figure 6. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - 27 October 1991.

                                                                  16

                                                              3

                                                                        ca

                                                          U-TC surtace Anal YSIS V October iggi.

                                                                                                                     2

                                                                           6  .-OW-
                                                                    %TMC'. e,s t

                                             Figure 8. 0000 UTC SurfaCe AnalySIS - 28 OOtObOr 1991 -

                                                                                     46
                                                                                                 .-4-

                                                                              -X

                                                         ,Z@;        Hu'rrica@e    "'Grace
                                                                     31 .5@T    .2w
                                                                     NMC    S    psn..

                                                                                   14

                                           Figure 9. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 28 October 1991.

                                                                            19

                                                                                  46',

                                                                                              9

                                                                Hurrica'e-"Crace"
                                                                -33.1N 6 .9W.                     . . .   . . . .
                                                                   C ID S.

                                                                              ca

                                          Figure 10. 0000 UTC Sutlace Analysis - 29 October 1991.

                                                                       20

                                                                       45

                                                                                   8118

                                                            65-

                                                         -H rri6ane-"Gracel'
                                                         .3 W63.0
                                                           C est..p n.

                                 Figure 11. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 29 October 1991.

                                                          21

                                                                           44.

                                                  t;

                                       Figure 12. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - 30 October 1991.

                                                                 22

                                                                                                .2.                      . . . . . . . . .

                                                                                                          7

                                                                                                                55-         SO-

                                                Figure 13. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 30 October 1991.

                                                                                    23

                                                                                             40

                                                                              82

                                                                                10

                                       Figure 14. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - 31 October 1991.

                                                                 24

                                                                                                                                          -40

                                                                                                 92

                                                                  '20

                                                     Figure 15.       1200 UTC Surface Analysis - 31                   October 1991.

                                                                                              25

                                                                   ?2r7-

                                                                                                         r

                                     Figure 16. 0000 UTC Surface Analysis - I 14ovember 1991.

                                                               26

                                    Figure 17. 1200 UTC Surface Analysis - I November 1991.

                                                               27

                                                                                                                                                                     Z@t
                                                                                                                                                     "I @ 41

                                                                                                                                         Y@
                                                 4,                                                                                                                  oar,,,:
                                                        W

                                                                                                                                                                         'Aw
                                                                                                                                                                                           @5

                                                                                           "P4

                         OD

                                                                                                                                                                                      511

                                                                                                                                                                             ...........

                                   Figure 18. 1201 UTC 28 October 1991 GOES Infared Image - Hurricane Grace near Bermuda/Developing Low east of Maine.

                                                                                                                       %4'

                                                                                                                        41

                                            t
                                            t

                             V7,

                             Figure 19. 1201 UTC 29 October 1991 GOES Infrared Image - Cold front from North Atlantic Low is nearing Grace.
                             I ' o" -
                             Ite,

                                                                                                                                 A
                                                                                                                                  "Op    4<9,
                                                                                                                                    "W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           IL

                                 CA)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                "ilk

                                                                       Figure 20. 1201 UTC 30 October 1991 GOES infrared Image - North Atlantic Low at its most intense.

                                                                                         "T

                                                                                                                            @@M V,

                                                                            y, M"

                                                                                   AxA,@,

                                                                   VE

                                                                7T

                  CA)
                                                                                                              'Adn*

                            Figure 21. 1201 UTC 31 October 1991 GOES Infrared Image - North Atlantic Low weakening off mid-Atlantic coast.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             --4b

                                                                                                       f

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          At"I"
                                                                                                                                       ...... . ....

                                                                                                                          el,

                                       CA3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 711
                                                                                             '0141

                                                                   IP
                                                                               loo@

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          'N"

                                                       Figure 22. 0301 UTC 28 October 1991 GOES Water Vapor Image - Grace off Bermuda. Dry Canadian High north of New York.
                                                                  L

                                                                                       7

                   W

                        Figure 23. 0301 UTC 29 October 1991 GOES Water Vapor Image - Weak eye of Grace still visible. Dry Air over Northeast U.S.

                  CA)

                                                                                                                   OIL

                                                                                          T,

                              Figure 24. 0701 UTC 30 October 1991 GOES Water Vapor Image - Dry air being wrapped Into North Atlantic low.

                               At,
                                                                                        ----- ------ ...

                  CA)

                    Fiqu
                                                                                            W
                        re 25, 0301 UTC 31 October 1991 GOES
                                                              Water Vapor Image   Dry a
                                                                                       ir has wrapped I
                                                                                                       1/2 times around North Atlantic Low.

                  MONDAY, October 28,1991

                  On October 28, a strong surface low pressure system had developed southeast of
                  Nova Scotia from what was originally the weak midwestern wave. This came as a
                  result of the interaction of the now quasi-stationary upper low over the western Atlantic
                  with a higher latitude short-wave trough. Further, Hurricane Grace, now situated west
                  of Bermuda, and the strong high pressure area, now centered north of New England
                  and at its near record peak strength, added to this intensification by supplying warm,
                  moist air and cold, dry air, respectively. These events led to a greatly tightened
                  pressure gradient between the surface low, the now dissipating hurricane, and the
                  Canadian high. As a result, late on October 28, a strong northeast fetch of gale force
                  winds developed and persisted over the oceanic area especially to the north and west
                  of the deepening low near Nova Scotia.

                  The 00 UTC, October 28, AVN model run dramatically strengthened the surface low.
                  By early morning, the extrerhe nature of the situation, hinted at the day before, was
                  apparent. At the same time (16 UTC) Grace, positioned at 32.70N 68.30W, was
                  moving north at 5 kt. The NHC forecast the hurricane to drift slowly to the northeast.
                  The developing oceanic low, now located at 430N 60OW, was forecast to move toward
                  the south-southeast at 10 kt to a position near 40ON 580W. Storm-force conditions
                  were forecast to exist by 00 UTC Tuesday. Winds of 50 to 75 kt with seas 25 to 36 ft
                  within 400 nm northwest semicircle were forecast.

                  TUESDAY, October 29,1991

                  The oceanic storm, previously stationary well southeast of Nova Scotia, began to
                  develop to the southwest and continued to intensify. At this same time, the now
                  downgraded Tropical Storm Grace began to lose its tropical characteristics and
                  weakened. The strong northeast fetch of winds, which had developed oil October 28,
                  persisted throughout the day, a consequence of the surface pressure differential
                  between the Canadian high and the Atlantic low. The swell activity continuing to be
                  spawned by this storm contributed to the start of beach erosion as early as the night
                  of October @8, while the erosion caused by Grace was abating. Some minor coastal
                  flooding was also reported at Chatham, Massachusetts.

                  Among the NWS forecasters involved, there was some concern as to which low center
                  the AVN model was trying to move to the southwest. The model was strengthening
                  an upper low and suggested a drift to the southwest. The satellite imagery seemed to
                  indicate that the strengthening upper low would develop a new surface low center
                  which would intensify.

                  The dangerous storm previously forecast was now fact. Movement to the southwest
                  at 10 kt was indicated. Lists of observed ship data confirmed the degree of intensity
                  associated with the wind and swell conditions. Two ships just east of Georges Bank,

                                                             36

                for example, reported 40 and 43 ft combined seas. In the forecast, initial conditions
                were listed as winds 50 to 75 kt and seas 35 to 50 ft within 400 nm over the northwest
                semicircle.

                WEDNESDAY, October 30,1991

                The strong northeast fetch of gale and storm force winds persisted over the ocean
                area through the night of October 30. The strong pressure differential between the
                Canadian high and the Atlantic low was maintained throughout the day. This
                extratropical storm continued moving west, entrained the tropical moisture from the
                remnants of Tropical Storm Grace, and intensified further.

                The storm continued west-northwest during the afternoon before turning southwest
                and finally beginning to weaken on the night of October 30. Since the movement of
                this storm was northeast to southwest, it arrived along the coastal United States via
                the "back door." As a consequence, the normal experience of increasing cloudiness
                associated with nor'easters at most of these coastal locations did not occur. The
                majority of people along the Eastern Seaboard awoke Wednesday morning to
                generally clear skies.

                The NMC surface plot at 12 UTC showed a 977 mb pressure measurement from a
                ship located at 39.50N 630W. The associated winds were given as 40 kt out of the
                east-southeast. The surface analysis indicated a 972 mb low at 390N 640W. Satellite
                image data, however, indicated that the low was a little farther north centering at 40ON
                640W. The low had an extremely tight center. Winds of 55 to 70 kt and seas of 35 to
                50 ft within 300 nm of the storm's northern semicircle and western quadrant were
                forecast by SMS. This placed the western edge of the area of strongest winds directly
                over Cape God.

                The Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)
                Data Utilization Center (VDUC) indicated the speed of the low to be 20 kt due west.
                The NMC AVN and Nested Grid Model (NGM) were slow with the feature, had
                positioned it too far south, and showed it to be significantly weaker than it actually
                was. Much of the major damage along the southeastern Now England coast was to
                occur over the next several hours.

                The duration, length, and areal extent of the fetch associated with this oceanic storm
                produced offshore seas reported to be 40 to 78 ft high. Closer to shore over the
                continental shelf, seas built up as high as 25 to 40 ft. Gale force winds along the
                southeastern New England coast increased to storm force. The Weather Service
                Meteorological Observatory (WSMO) in Chatham, Massachusetts, recorded wind gusts
                greater than 60 mph for more than 15 straight hours and greater than 70 mph for 6
                hours. Compounding the problem, the strongest winds occurred near or shortly before
                the afternoon high tide.

                                                           37

                 The most severe coastal flood damage was reported along the Massachusetts coast
                 in conjunction with the high tide. In Boston, this came at 4:33 pm while in Chatham at
                 5:05 pm. Tides were estimated to be 3 to 4 ft above the normal high tide along the
                 entire Massachusetts coast. At Boston, the peak tide during this storm was 14 feet
                 above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). The timing of the strongest winds with the
                 incoming high tide resulted in a tremendous build-up of seas just offshore and
                 produced destructive wave action.

                 THURSDAY, October 31,1991

                 The low was now at 380N 71.50W. Unlike most extratropical lows, it had formed and
                 maintained a well defined "eye." One ship reported winds of 55 kt: within 60 nrn to the
                 west of the storm's center. However, removed from its cold air source, the high
                 pressure air mass was becoming modified and the low, no longer able to feed off its
                 previous energy sources, was filling. All NIVIC models now showed that by Friday the
                 storm would rapidly weaken and move to the northeast.

                 Although weakening, the system still generated a significant northeast wind and
                 continued to force tides to be well above normal. However, the damage caused by
                 towering coastal waves did diminish. By this time, some of the more protected areas
                 had been affected. For example, Bridgeport, Connecticut's, Sikorsky Airport, at the
                 western end of Long Island Sound, experienced runway flooding Thursday morning
                 forcing a temporary closing of the airport.

                 FRIDAY, November 1, 1991

                 During the day, wind and sea conditions diminished considerably along the coast as
                 the large-scale pressure gradients abated. However, as the low pressure center
                 continued eastward, it moved over the warm Gulf Stream. The infusion of new energy
                 from this source reintensified the storm, again generated storm force winds and, as
                 seen on satellite photographs, produced an eyelike center surrounded by convection.
                 This development was confirmed by NHC-ordered aircraft reconnaissance.

                 Although NHC considered classifying this as a hurricane, NMC, NHC, and NWS
                 Headquarters decided against this to avoid unnecessarily confusing and alarming the
                 public.

                 SATURDAY, November 2,1991

                 Continuing northward toward Nova Scotia, the storm left the Gulf Stream and again
                 crossed over the cold North Atlantic. Early on the morning of November 2, the now
                 rapidly weakening storm made landfall just west of Halifax, Nova Scotia, terminating
                 the event.

                                                         38

               SUMMARY

               Overall, the NIVIC computer models did a good job giving adequate lead time for
               warning purposes on the Atlantic High Seas. However, the development, strength,
               and rapid westward motion of the surface low on the afternoon and evening of
               Wednesday, October 30 was not handled well by the models. The surface low moved
               much further west than prescribed by either the NGM or AVN and did so along 40ON
               and not 380N as per model guidance. This rapid westward motion and the fact that
               the low made it to 71OW before turning southwest away from the New England shore
               contributed greatly to the coastal flooding and subsequent wave damage along the
               New England Coast.

                                                       39

                      CHAPTER III - DATA ACQUISITION AND AVAILABILITY

                COASTAL MARINE DATA SOURCES AND AVAILABILITY

                Sea surface and marine weather observations utilized routinely by NWS forecasters
                during coastal and high seas storm events come from several sources: (1) data
                buoys deployed in both nearshore and offshore locations, (2) remote CMAN platforms,
                (3) voluntary observing ships, (4) drifting buoys, and (5) NOS-maintained water level
                gages. The buoys and the CMAN units are operated and maintained by the NDBC.

                NDBC Systems

                Moored buoys and CMAN stations maintained by the NDBC rely on the Geostationary
                Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) system to telemeter hourly observations
                from the observing platforms through the satellite and the National Environmental
                Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Wallops Island facility to the. NWS
                central and field offices. Observations are transmitted from the platforms hourly and
                arrive at NWS field stations over the AFOS Network.

                Although most of the network was operational, recent activity, specifically damage
                caused by Hurricane Bob in August 1991, had depleted the available systems
                somewhat. The Gulf of Maine data buoy, designated number 44005, was set adrift by
                Bob and was retrieved by the Coast Guard later that month. Buoy 44004, located at
                the former Ocean Station 'Hotel' near 38.50N 70.60W, failed in early August, was
                reported adrift in September, and was subsequently retrieved. All other NDBC buoys
                were on. station and reported throughout the storm@.

                With respect to CMAN units, the sea temp erature sensor at'Diamond Shoals Light,
                North Carolina (DSLN7), was inoperative during this event as a result of Hurricane
                Bob in August. All other CMAN stations were providing reliable data at the beginning
                of the event. However, damage to several of these stations occurred during the
                storm.

                According to weekly NDBC status reports, CMAN stations at Matinicus Rock, Maine
                (MISM1), and Ambrose Light, New York (ALSN6), suffered so'me degradation of
                reliability during the storm. For the period October 24 - 31, the report showed 95
                percent and 98 percent data availability from these two stations, respectively.
                However, for the period October 31 - November 7, only 83 percent and 90 percent of
                all observations from these two sites were available due to intermittent transmission
                problems and parity errors. Elsewhere, the station at Lake Worth, Florida (LKWFl),

                                                      40

                was destroyed on October 31 when the pier on which it was mounted gave way during
                the high waves that reached Florida.

                National Ocean Service (NOS) Water Level Information

                Water level information is provided to forecasters primarily f     rorn the NOS-maintained
                WLTS network in place at many United States coastal sites. This network of gages is
                maintained by NOS primarily to record long- and short-term variations in water levels.
                For these tasks, real-time data are not an NOS requirement. The NWS, because it
                does have a requirement for real-time water level information during potential coastal
                flooding and tsunami events, and the NOS have modified selected NOS gage
                installations to allow for such real-time access.

                Two methods of providing this access are now in use: (1) Handar, developed by
                NWS as an offshoot of similar technology used on river gages, and
                (2) TIDES-ABC, an NOS-developed software package designed to plot water level
                readings from the past 24 hours against predicted tide heights.

                Handar. technology, maintained by NWS, incorporates a programmable unit that
                transmits the NOS water level gage data via commercial telephone line to a computer
                or dumb terminal remotely located in an NWS field office. Either the field office can
                initiate the call for a reading or the gage itself can initiate a call to a field office at a
                certain time interval or whenever the gage height reaches a pre-set critical level.
                Multiple readings each hour can be obtained by this system which also has the
                capability to store several weeks' worth of data.

                In the TIDES-ABC system, a tide gage and an NWS office computer are again
                connected through a telephone line. The TIDES          -ABC software at a local NWS office
                initiates a phone call to one of several remote gages available to a particular office.
                Water level observations for up to the past 24 hours are displayed graphically on the
                computer screen along with the predicted water levels for the same period. In this
                way, trends are readily apparent, and departures from tidal predictions can be seen at
                a glance.

                A disadvantage of TIDES-ABC is that it is more cumbersome and time-consuming to
                use than a simple interrogation of a Handar-equipped gage. Especially in routine
                situations where no departure from predicted values is expected, NWS forecasters
                seem to prefer accessing the Handar equipment at locations where both methods of
                real-time access are available.

                As with Handar units, only selected gages are equipped to be accessed via
                TIDES   -ABC. A summary of water level data available during this event to the various
                field offices involved is shown in table IV. Overall, tide gages along the East Coast
                performed well throughout this event. However, some discrepancies were noted as
                follows.

                                                                41

                                  Station           Tide Gage Site                     Maintained By              Method of Data Access

                                  WSFO PWM          Portland Harbor, ME                NOS                        Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit;
                                                                                                                    gage calls WSFO if level reaches 11.0 It
                                  WSFO BOS          Boston Harbor, MA                  NOS                        TIDES  -ABC, dial-up access via NWS Handar unit
                                                    Charles R. Dam Tender                                         Tender reads gage
                                                    Buzzard's Bay, MA                  USACE                      Remote dial-up access
                                                    New Bedford, MA                    USACE                      Remote dial-up access
                                                    Sandwich, MA                       USACE                      Remote dial-up access
                                                    Wing's Neck, MA                    USACE                      Remote dial-up access
                                                    Nantucket, MA                      Steamship                  Staff reading
                                                    Woods Hole, MA                     WHOI                       Staff reading
                                                      Oceanographic
                                                      Institute (WHOI)
                                                    Stamford, CT                       USACE                      Remote dial-up access
                                                    Providence, RI                     USACE                      Remote dial-up access
                                  WSOBDR            Bridgeport Hbr., CT                NOS                        Dial-up access via NWS Handar
                                  WSFO, NYC         Willets Point, NY                  NOS                        TIDES ABC
                    4@-                             The Battery, NY                    NOS                        TIDECABC
                                                    Bergen Point, NJ                   NOS                        TIDES  -ABC
                                                    Sandy Hook, NY                     NOS                        TIDES  -ABC
                                  WSO ACY           Ventnor City Pier, NJ              NOS                        Gage with NWS Handar unit calls ACY hourly and
                                                                                                                    when water level reaches 5.8 ft MLLW
                                                    Cape May, NJ                       NOS                        TIDES  -ABC
                                                    Sandy Hook, NJ                     NOS                        TIDES  -ABC
                                  WSO ILG           Ocean City, MD                     NOS                        Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit
                                  WSO BWI           Ocean City, MD                     NOS                        Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit
                                  WSO ORF           Hampton Roads, VA                  NOS                        Dial-up access via NWS Handar unit;
                                                      (Sewell's Pt)                                                 gage calls ORF if level reaches 4.0 ft MLLW
                                                    Ches. Bay Bridge, VA               NOS                        TIDES-ABC; dial-up access via NWS Handar unit;
                                                      (South Is.)                                                   gage calls ORF if level reaches 4.0 ft MLLW
                                                    Windmill Point, VA                 NOS                        TIDES  -ABC
                                                    Lewisetta, VA                      NOS                        TIDES  -ABC
                                  WSO HAT           Cape Hatteras, NC                  NOS                        Gage with NWS Handar unit calls HAT hourly;
                                                      (Frisco)                                                      prints to Silent 700
                                                    Duck, NC                           USACE                      Dial-up access every hourly

                                    TABLE IV.     REAL-TIME WATER LEVEL INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO NWS FIELD OFFICES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS

                   (1) The NGWLMS gage at Atlantic City, New Jersey, which at the time of the
               storm was undergoing pre-operational testing, reported water levels 0.9 ft lower than
               the WLTS gage collocated with it and 1.4 ft lower than the WLTS gage at nearby
               Ventnor Pier. Atlantic City data from the NGWLMS gage were not available to NWS
               forecasters in real-time. Report of the discrepancy was made by the USACE to the
               Official in Charge of WSO Atlantic City after the fact.

                   (2) The Ocean City, Maryland, WLTS gage was demolished by this storm and will
               not be returned to service. The NGWLMS gage operating at this location is not
               presently accessible by NWS field offices in real-time.

                   (3) The NOS gage collocated with the CMAN station at Lake Worth, Florida, was
               destroyed when the outer 200 ft of the Lake Worth Pier was destroyed by the high
               waves associated with this storm.

                   (4) Gages at Duck, North Carolina, and Boston, Massachusetts, were also
               affected by the storm but have now been repaired and returned to service.

               In addition to the problems noted above, the tide gage at Portland Harbor, Maine, is
               programmed to call forecasters at WFSO Portland when the water level reaches 11.0
               ft above MLLW. At 4 am, EST, October 30, the gage called and reported such a
               reading. The forecasters felt the reported 11.1 ft above MLLW was excessive since
               the winds along the Maine and New Hampshire coasts were blowing from the
               northeast, parallel to most of the coastline. Experience had shown that most coastal
               flooding on this portion of the coast occurred with strong southeast onshore winds.
               Finally, this interpretation of the data seemed to be supported by the'MRPECS
               statistical storm surge prediction of only 1.7 ft above normal tide.

               Forecasters also mentioned that a couple of days earlier, the gage had malfunctioned.
               This undermined their confidence in the readings since there was some question
               whether or not the gage had been repaired by NOS maintenance technicians. In the
               absence of other interrogatable tide gages in that area, with no other method to verify
               the reading, and without the Gulf of Maine buoy (44005) to monitor existing sea
               conditions, the forecasters in Portland were reluctant to rely solely on these data.
               They filed an A-23 Equipment Outage Form on the NOS tide gage. The station
               electronics technician visited the gage at 9 am, EST, and confirmed that it was
               operating correctly and that the 11.1 ft value was undoubtedly accurate.

               Upon learning this, a coastal flood warning was issued at 10 am, EST, 4 hours before
               the onset of significant coastal flooding along the Maine and New Hampshire coasts.
               Forecasters felt that had they known that the gage was reading correctly, they would
               have probably issued a coastal flood watch or, perhaps, a warning at 4 am, EST.

                                                         43

                  The NOS is presently modernizing its network of water level gages throughout the
                  United States. At many locations, NGWLMS instruments are installed but are not yet
                  in an operational mode. This new system is designed to make use of a GOES link to
                  transmit routine data to field offices. This system, as currently envisioned, will transmit
                  data every 3 hours via GOES satellite. Following quality checks by NOS, this data will
                  be released to the NWS field offices via AFOS.

                  Much concern was raised by NWS local officials throughout the survey area regarding
                  the reliability and access to real-time water level information on an as-needed basis.
                  For the long term, concern was raised by the local officials throughout the affected
                  area about the availability and reliability of the NGWLMS data. For non-storm periods,
                  the three-hourly data dump will likely be satisfactory. But, in the event of a storm or
                  coastal flooding episode, frequent access to real-time water level information is critical.
                  NOS has installed telephone lines from each system for quality control and
                  maintenance, and it would appear reasonable for NOS to permit access to NWS
                  forecasters during coastal flooding episodes for monitoring water levels in real-time.
                  This issue must be resolved before the NGWLMS network is declared operational and
                  the existing WLTS network decommissioned.

                  There was a need expressed by several NWS managers for water level information
                  from estuarine areas (i.e., sounds and embayments behind barrier islands) to alert
                  forecasters of seiches and flooding from back bays. During extended periods of
                  onshore winds, water from back bay areas cannot escape to sea as efficiently as
                  during light or offshore wind situations. With each subsequent high tide, the departure
                  from predicted water levels increases. For example, WSO Atlantic City reports that,
                  after four or five tidal cycles when strong northeast (onshore) winds are involved, back
                  bay water levels can be as much as 1.5 ft higher than simultaneous oceanfront
                  readings. Several offices get reports from local officials and/or private citizens on
                  water level conditions in these areas. However, data from most of these must be
                  directly read by a human observer. As such, requests for information from the
                  volunteer observers at these sites are made sparingly to maintain cooperation.

                  SATELLITE DATA SOURCES AND AVAILABILITY

                  Satellite data, in the form of images and/or image animation, are utilized by NWS
                  forecasters centrally at NIVIC and NHC and at the various field sites. These data may
                  be the single most important source of information available to all marine forecasters.
                  GOES data are available in visible, infrared, and water vapor formats at both NIVIC
                  and NWS field offices from NESDIS/Satellite Services Division. In the field, the GOES
                  image data are available via the Satellite Weather Information System (SWIS) and the
                  microSWIS (personal computer [PC) based image display/animation system) as
                  images and/or image animation. In addition, NIVIC forecasters have satellite
                  information available from the VDUC that is not available to NWS field offices.

                                                              44

               OTHER DATA ACCESS AND AVAILABILITY LIMITATIONS

               Other than those items noted above, the DST found that the forecasters generally had
               access to the available tools.

               The DST did become aware of a data access problem that seemed to impact the
               operation during the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. According to NMC SMS staff,
               the current procedure of having the NOS Ocean Products Branch meteorologist,
               located at NMC, provide a list of current synoptic observations to the SMS High Seas
               forecaster is too labor-intensive. They suggest that a plot containing wind speed and
               direction, combined sea and swell height and direction, visibility, pressure, pressure
               tendency, and past or present weather would be all that is needed. They did note,
               however, that several ship reports on the NOS list of October 29 showing seas of over
               40 ft just east of Georges Bank did indeed help verify forecast conditions. (Single
               observations of this type illustrate how important real-time in-situ data are to the
               forecaster.)

               On a related topic, a lead forecaster in Boston recommended that the MARMON
               program now in use throughout the Great Lakes be adapted for use along the East
               Coast. This program compares existing forecasts with current observations and alerts
               the appropriate forecaster when discrepancies arise.

               For this to be effective, however, an adequate observational network needs to be in
               place. The current network available is consistently denigrated by. NWS marine
               forecasters. The sparsity of actual on-water observation points is a major hinderance
               in accurately specifying wave heights and wind speeds existent over the waters
               offshore the United States. Visual wave observations, in particular those taken from
               land-based observers, are prone to have large errors. This is a major problem and
               needs to be addressed.

                                                        45

                                         CHAPTER IV - PREPAREDNESS

                   Disaster preparedness activities at NWS offices have a dual focus. The first is internal
                   preparedness dealing with internal station management activities (e.g., drills,
                   checklists, SDMs, and staff awareness). The other focus is external preparedness,
                   whereby NWS officials meet with state and local officials to learn their requirements
                   (as they apply to NWS functions), participate in emergency planning and emergency
                   drills, and take part in post-storm analyses of emergency actions to identify
                   refinements and improvements.

                   INTERNAL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES

                   Weather Service forecasters must be ready to respond to all weather-related events in
                   a timely manner to ensure that adequate warnings are delivered to the public. This is
                   accomplished by developing and maintaining detailed, readily available, and easily
                   understood instructions and procedures. Of course, these procedures are useless
                   unless forecasters are aware of their existence and are able to apply them to
                   whatever situation might arise. This familiarization can either be gained through actual
                   practice or through station drills.

                   The DST found that established SOPs were generally in place at all stations visited.
                   Samples of the on-station guidance are included in appendix A to this report. The
                   type and quality of the guidance varied from station to station. It ranged from fully
                   developed SDM chapters on coastal flooding, with references to historical tide heights
                   and estimated return periods and procedures for backup access to tide gages, etc., to
                   a short one pager with a brief checklist and telephone listing.

                   The success of SOPs lies in whether or not those who must use them can readily find
                   the information they need to successfully handle the situation at hand. The DST
                   identified no major instances where on-station guidance was incorrect or lacking in the
                   most critical areas. Some stations, however, could include more background
                   information, historical data, and examples. Several minor discrepancies were noted
                   and are, presumably, being corrected.

                   Station drills focusing on coastal flooding or high surf events were found to'have been
                   conducted at Portland, Maine (June and October-November 1991); Boston
                   Massachusetts (October 1990 and October/November 1991 --in progress a; the time of
                   the storm); and Norfolk, Virginia (November 1990, June 1991, and November 1991).
                   No other drills had been documented. However, at other off ices--Atl antic City, for
                   instance--minor coastal flooding is a common enough occurrence that the local

                                                              46

               manager believes that proficiency is maintained in real-time without requiring formal
               drills.

               EXTERNAL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES

               Preparing state and local officials, the media, and the general public for the eventuality
               of coastal flooding (or any other weather-related event) is equally important to
               preparing station personnel for these events. It appears to the DST that NWS officials
               throughout the area investigated had spent and continue to spend considerable effort
               in attempting to do this. The responses from the emergency service community and
               the media were generally, although not uniformly, good. The responses from the
               public were, in,general, poor.

               Perception by emergency managers and the public of the potential danger from a
               particular weather-related event seems to be critical in developing public cooperation
               and response. Local NWS managers must become actively involved in meeting with
               emergency managers to develop a common understanding as to the potential of
               various weather events, participate in planning activities, and conduct post mortem
               reviews to identify deficiencies and improve the warning system. Although the effort
               was there, the message, at least as far as most of the public along the Mid-Atlantic
               and New England Coasts is concerned, has not gotten through for this type of coastal
               flooding event.

               The reality is that each NWS office still has different requirements for meeting this
               educational responsibility. In places like Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North
               Carolina, the populace, from the state emergency managers to the hotel operators and
               wind surfers, is very weather-conscious. The frequency of storms and the potential for
               destruction they possess makes this apparent even to the most casual observer.

               At the other extreme, problems were found in New Hampshire and New Jersey in
               getting local emergency officials and the public to believe in the power of the
               approaching storm. These are noted in Chapter VII. In Atlantic City, coastal flood
               warnings were largely ignored in spite of the local NWS manager's active involvement
               with emergency managers throughout southern New Jersey in educating the public
               and developing emergency plans. This, again, was due mainly to a lack of
               appreciation for the potential of this event.

               In Norfolk, Virginia, the DST met with the WSO Meteorologist in Charge (MIC), the
               Director and Deputy Director of Norfolk Emergency Services, and the City of Virginia
               Beach Fire Department - Emergency Management Division. In this meeting, all three
               emergency managers emphasized that their contact with WSO Norfolk is frequent,
               due, in part, to the particular problems of the Hampton Roads area in evacuation
               planning. Because tunnels and highways susceptible to flooding are major parts of
               evacuation plans for the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Chesapeake areas (average elevation

                                                           47

                  above mean sea level of Virginia Beach and Norfolk is around 13 ft), emergency
                  managers are extremely weather-conscious. All agreed that at least monthly meetings
                  and weekly phone calls take place to discuss various weather-related matters.

                  The hurricane threat along the Atlantic coast has prompted emergency managers to
                  foster active disaster preparedness programs in all coastal areas. Hurricane
                  preparedness activities and associated drills ensure that necessary weather
                  information can be passed on to state and local emergency managers in the shortest
                  amount of time. A comprehensive hurricane simulation drill is planned for early 1992
                  in FEMA Region Ill. "Hurricane Zelda" is intended to involve all levels of emergency
                  management as well as FEMA, NWS, United States Coast Guard, and other agencies
                  to strengthen hurricane plans currently in force. Since coastal flooding can account
                  for a significant part of the damage caused by a hurricane, these preparedness efforts
                  have a carryover effect to other coastal flood episodes as well.

                  The perception among NWS personnel and emergency managers throughout the
                  survey area was that personal visits and communications are absoluteIV essential in
                  maintaining the high state of readiness of the warning and preparedness program.
                  Reduced travel budgets have prevented NWS personnel from conducting as many
                  disaster awareness tours. If this continues, everyone (NWS and emergency
                  managers) interviewed indicated that the warning and preparedness efforts invested
                  up to this time will gradually be lost.

                  Particularly in the restructured NWS, many coastal areas will be without a direct and
                  immediate NWS presence. In these cases, it is imperative that the Warning
                  Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) and the MIC keep actively acquainted with various
                  emergency management personnel in the new Weather Forecast Office area of
                  responsibility. This will require a sufficient and reliable travel budget and enough time
                  to perform this task.

                  At the DST meeting in Atlantic City, the time-intensiveness of this preparedness task
                  was made clear. The State of New Jersey uses the "home-rule" approach to
                  emergency services. Emergency management is run at a municipality level with local
                  governments having the authority to conduct evacuations and produce their own
                  emergency plans. This situation can cause problems for NWS personnel in
                  conducting Warning and Preparedness programs due to the number of agencies
                  involved in emergency management. Problems arise, as well, in the execution of
                  emergency management plans. In one case during this storm, a municipality ordered
                  an evacuation without coordinating with other municipalities as to where the evacuees
                  were to be sheltered.

                  In the modernized NWS, the plan currently calls for the Philadelphia office to be
                  responsible for Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. This
                  totals some 60 counties. Even with WCMs dedicated solely to preparedness activities,

                                                           48

              they will have a difficult time dealing with all aspects of the warning preparedness in
              states where individual municipalities direct their own emergency management
              functions with little centralized coordination or oversight.

                   0aa@

                                               Ok4

                            Figure 26. The remains of Sandy Beach, Scituate, Massachusetts.
                                               Photo courtesy of Pat Viets.

                                                          49

                                       CHAPTER V - WARNING SERVICES

                   The meteorological scenario that unfolded over the New England and Mid-Atlantic
                   states in late October presented some unique and formidable challenges to the NWS
                   warning and forecast system. While these meteorological details are described
                   elsewhere in this survey report, several points are worthy of reiteration.

                   Unlike the typical nor'easter that develops off the North Carolina Outer Banks during
                   the winter months and moves north and east along the New England coast, this major
                   ocean storm moved west and then southwest toward the United States coast from its
                   area of origin south of Nova Scotia. This "back door" approach precluded the normal
                   precursory environmental clues so familiar to persons who have often experienced
                   coastal winter storms in the northeast. Such was the case, for example, in Maine
                   during the height of the coastal flooding on October 30. One resident observed, "It
                   was a rather typical autumn day in New England unless you were on the coast."

                   The formation of Hurricane Grace several days earlier and its subsequent absorption
                   into what was to be an ocean storm of historic proportions was a complicating factor
                   for forecasters in formulating forecasts and statements.

                   The interaction between the intense extratropical storm and a near record high
                   pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes strengthened the wind field over vast
                   areas of the ocean resulting in a long fetch toward the New England coastline.

                   Forecasters at NIVIC SMS and in WSFOs with coastal responsibility recognized the
                   devastating potential for a coastal storm several days in advance of its onslaught.
                   (See selected state forecast discussions [SFDs] in appendix B.) In addition to NHC
                   advisories on Hurricane Grace, SMS's high seas forecasts (appendix C) indicated
                   storm development as early as 22 UTC on October 27 and advertised a dangerous
                   storm in the high seas forecast issued at 10 UTC, October 28. Subsequently, SMS's
                   high seas forecasts and WSFOs' coastal and offshore forecasts highlighted the
                   developing threat to marine interests with gale and storm warnings.

                   Forecasters at several offices mentioned to the DST the importance of numerical
                   weather prediction and statistical computer guidance from various atmospheric
                   models. Boston issued a coastal flood watch at 3 am, EST, October 29, based, in
                   part, on the Limited-area Fine Mesh (LFM) coastal wind forecast of 46 kt at Nantucket.
                   According to a Boston forecaster, "it looked like the Blizzard of '78 without the snowl"
                   Another Boston forecaster said the 3000 ft wind forecasts were superbl He used, as
                   a rule of thumb, 80 percent of the 3000 ft winds to estimate surface winds.

                                                              50

              This forecast guidance, together with forecaster experience in dealing with coastal
              storms, resulted in a suite of timely, state of the science warning and forecast
              products and services to a host of users, including government, public safety, and
              emergency management officials, private sector interests, the media, and the public.
              (Appendix C contains copies of selected warning and forecast products issued by
              various NWS offices having marine responsibilities.)

              Not all computer guidance was helpful, however. Several comments were received
              indicating that the output from the MRPECS was consistently too conservative for this
              storm scenario. One forecaster in Boston stated that he would have issued more
              strongly worded statements, comparing this storm in terms of its destructive potential
              with the Blizzard of '78, had it not been for the surge model output.

              In defense of the MRPECS, it should be noted that this guidance is statistical in
              nature. Most storms in this part of the Atlantic are moving away from the United
              States. In all likelihood, few, if any, storms moving toward the coast, like the
              Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, were in the database used to derive the original
              statistical regression equations. In such situations, the statistical guidance can't be
              expected to give good guidance.

              Also, at the time of the storm, MRPECS was run using wind and pressure inputs
              based on the LFM model. Since then, it has been converted so that it now uses
              inputs from the newer NGM model. However, even though this model provides better
              offshore wind and pressure predictions, the MRPECS will still be of limited value
              during unusual storms such as this one.

              A common theme reiterated at coastal offices was the need for more real-time tide
              gage and buoy data. As discussed in Chapter III, members of the staff at WSFO
              Portland lost confidence in the accuracy of a tide gage reading, and the absence of
              nearby gages for comparative purposes may have caused the delay in the issuance of
              a coastal flood watch or coastal flood warning.

              WSFO Portland did issue a special weather statement at 4:30 am, EST, on October
              30, highlighting heavy surf and beach erosion. However, the forecasters are
              convinced that the loss of data from the Gulf of Maine buoy that had been torn from
              its moorings during Hurricane Bob inhibited their ability to gauge the arrival time and
              magnitude of heavy surf along the coast.

              WSFOs and WSOs placed emphasis on different hazardous aspects of the storm,
              depending upon the orientation of the storm's circulation relative to exposed northeast-
              and east-facing coastal margins. For example, heavy surf advisories were issued
              from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast to Long
              Island and Cape Cod highlighting the dangers of high surf and the destructive effect of
              moderate to severe beach erosion. In the early stages of this event, these advisories

                                                         51

                   emphasized the impact of heavy swells radiating from Hurricane Grace while it was
                   approximately 300 miles east of the North Carolina coast. Later, the focus shifted to
                   the effects of the rapidly intensifying extratropical storm as Hurricane Grace fell apart
                   and its energy absorbed into the larger circulation.

                   At the same time, WSFO Boston issued high wind warnings for eastern
                   Massachusetts, including Cape Cod, which bore the brunt of the storm due to its
                   closer proximity to the center. Winds gusted near or above hurricane force for several
                   hours during the afternoon and evening of October 30.

                   In addition to marine warnings (gale and storm), coastal flood warnings stretched
                   along the entire northeast coastline highlighting the severe flooding associatqd with
                   storm surges 3 to 5 ft above normal. As can be seen by a review of selected
                   issuances found in appendix C, WSFOs and WSOs provided excellent, site-specific
                   advice for affected areas, many times incorporating information provided by
                   emergency management, law enforcement, and government officials.

                   While coastal flood watches did not precede coastal flood warnings in every case,
                   there is good evidence of intensive coordination within the NWS field structure as
                   offices braced to handle this critical weather event. Perhaps as importantly, a
                   recurring theme from the DST's interviews on the scene was the appreciation
                   expressed by emergency managers and other groups external to the NWS for the
                   early and frequent contact with NWS officials and field personnel as the storm
                   approached.

                   Several NWS; statements emphasized the hazardous nature of the high waves
                   attendant to this storm, but the mention of heavy surf may have had the reverse effect
                   on a segment of the population. Many sightseers were drawn into beach areas
                   putting themselves at risk and inhibiting the actions of local officials. One person in
                   Massachusetts lost his life apparently while surfing.

                                                               52

                       CHAPTER VI - COORDINATION AND DISSEMINATION

               The flow of information from the NWS offices was timely, strongly and clearly worded,
               and accurate. Coordination between NWS and emergency services personnel was in
               some cases initiated over 72 hours before the storm reached its peak. For example,
               NWS Eastern Region Headquarters began a close liaison with FEMA Regions 1, 11, 111,
               and IV beginning on October 28. In many instances, however, this flow required a
               great deal of effort on the part of one or more persons, usually the local NWS office
               manager. Although NWWS, NWR, and NAWAS were used, telephone contact
               between local offices and local emergency managers was extensive.

               WSFO PORTLAND, MAINE

               Two NWS off ices in WSFO Portland's area of responsibility were involved with the
               storm. These include WSFO Portland itself and WSO Concord, New Hampshire. The
               MIC of the WSFO maintained almost continuous telephone contact with emergency
               managers from that state and from New Hampshire throughout the period. Also, as
               part of this communication effort, the staff at the WSFO issued a special one-time
               product, a hazardous weather outlook, aimed at the emergency managers and
               containing alerting information.

               The WSFO is equipped with a facsimile machine used to transmit hard copies of
               warnings and statements. Similar systems were also used at other offices visited by
               the DST. The labor intensiveness required of such contacts can be overwhelming. If
               this process is to be continued, the NWS should try to automate it where possible.

               In general, the system in place throughout this area requires that the state emergency
               managers receive warnings and watches and pass them down to their county
               managers. These officials, in turn, forward the alerts to local managers. Both Maine
               and New Hampshire emergency managers were contacted by the DST and noted that
               they have access to the NWWS. (in Maine, this access is through the State Police
               headquarters. The Maine Emergency Management Agency is attempting to get its
               own NWWS drop.) Further, the NAWAS already in place at the WSFO, at the WSO,
               and at various other spots around both states ensured that the state managers were
               notified. Additionally, both states noted that they are introducing NWR to their local
               and county emergency managers to diminish the telephone traffic and quicken the
               local alerting time.

               As a backup, the Portland WSFO disseminates messages to the Associated Press via
               the Family of Services. This allows emergency managers to receive information

                                                         53

                  through the various media outlets across both states should those managers not have
                  immediate access to their NWWS.

                  WSFO Portland has responsibility. for a special location: the home of President
                  George Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine. A Secret Service unit is at that location but
                  was not directly notified by the WSFO. SOPs, as noted in the SDM, did not mandate
                  this. However, the SOPs and SDM have been changed to ensure that this is done
                  whenever a watch or warning affecting the area is issued.

                  WSFO BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

                  WSFO Boston; WSO Providence, Rhode Island; WSO Hartford, Connecticut; WSMO
                  Chatham, Massachusetts; and WSO Bridgeport, Connecticut; all took part in
                  overseeing the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. Information was disseminated from
                  WSFO Boston directly to the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency over
                  NAWAS and the NWWS which, in turn, funneled it through the area directors to the
                  local emergency managers in the jurisdictions involved. The staff at Boston contacted
                  appropriate emergency managers and began issuing media alerts and PNSs on
                  October 27, notifying them of the impending conditions.
                  In thIs area, a close relationship between personnel at WSFO Boston and the
                  Massachusetts emergency managers resulted in a timely and accurate dissemination
                  of weather material. Those managers interviewed by the DST said that the Boston
                  office did a superb job in providing advanced warning and in keeping them up to date
                  during the run of the storm.

                  A similar story can be told in Rhode Island and Connecticut. Even though the
                  damage and impact were less severe, WSO managers kept in close contact with their
                  respective state and local emergency officials. WSO Providence, Rhode Island,
                  supplied information to state officials from 07 UTC, October 30, until the storm ended
                  through its connection with the Rhode Island Law Enforcement Telecommunications
                  System. Emergency managers also were serviced by NWWS and by hourly
                  telephone contacts with the WSO.

                  Connecticut emergency service managers had access to all products issued by the
                  area NWS offices -through NWWS. They also maintained telephone contact with WSO
                  Bridge'port-for the storm's duration.

                  WSFO NEW YORK, NEW YORK

                  The only involved office in this area was the WSFO itself. The state of New York is
                  extremely well organized as far as the emergency services program is concerned.
                  Information flows to the state headquarters through NAWAS or the NWWS and is

                                                            54

               disseminated downward through the NYSPIN communication's circuitry. The local
               officials had ample lead time to implement preparedness actions.      I

               One problem was noted in New York. NYSPIN was established to automatically
               distribute emergency products throughout the state. However, coastal flood messages
               were not included in this system. This required the New York WSFO to reissue
               products with a special weather statement communication's header. NYSPIN has
               been changed to rectify this problem.

               WSFO PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA

               WSO Atlantic City, New Jersey, bore the brunt of the weather in this WSFO's area of
               responsibility. In New Jersey, the DST met with 18 people, including emergency
               managers from the state, county, and local governments and local media personnel.
               The flow of information in New Jersey is more diffuse than in the other states
               surveyed in that the NWS contacts local officials directly without going through a state
               organization. These contacts are usually handled over the telephone.

               Because of the structure of the emergency service organization in New Jersey, local
               contacts at the county level are a must. The NWWS does not seem to be a viable
               alternative in this state. A suggestion was made that an automatic facsimile machine
               (see discussion noted in the Portland, Maine, area above) be installed at WSO Atlantic
               City. This would allow the station to automatically call and forward to the concerned
               county and local officials hard copies of necessary information at the touch of a
               button.

               WSFO WASHINGTON, DC

               WSOs in Baltimore, Maryland, and Wilmington, Delaware, were active during this
               storm. However, WSO Norfolk, Virginia, was the office in the WSFO Washington area
               most affected by the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, although the WSFO did issue
               several warnings, forecasts, and statements and retained overall responsibility for the
               coast. Also, the WSFO used NAWAS frequently to brief both state and local
               emergency managers and to pass coastal information on to the Virginia State
               Emergency Operations Center.

               The Norfolk MIC and local area emergency managers talked often--four or five times a
               day--over the telephone through the duration of the storm. This is a normal procedure
               during such events. The MIC notified officials early in the week of the developing
               system and of its potential and followed up with the telephone and with facsimiles.
               Coordination, although labor, intensive, was very satisfactory.

                                                        55

                    WSFO RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA

                    In North Carolina, WSFO Raleigh staff maintained close telephone contact with the
                    State Division of Emergency Management. At the local level, WSO Cape Hatteras,
                    the office responsible for the area impacted, maintained close telephone,contact with
                    county and local emergency managers.

                    These local managers also relied heavily on NWR broadcasts and used this forum for
                    disseminating their own emergency messages to the general public (example in
                    appendix C). This was the only office visited by the DST at which this was done. The'
                    extreme reliance placed on the NWR system in this weather-sensitive area was
                    striking.

                    Conversations with officials from the North Carolina Division of Emergency
                    Management (Area A), from the Dare County Emergency Management Office, and
                    with the Dare County Sheriff all indicated that NWR is utilized extensively. It is used
                    to disseminate timely weather information and to advise the public of weather-related
                    road closures, etc. Local radio stations are not as likely to remain on the air during
                    poor weather as is the Hatteras NWR station. Discussions with individuals and local
                    officials substantiated the emergency managers' claims that NWR enjoys a broad
                    listener base and, in fact, becomes THE source of weather and weather-related
                    emergency information for the citizens of Dare County and the Outer Banks. The
                    local emergency officials relied on and acted on the information provided by the NWS.
                    Those managers debriefed by the DST were very satisfied with the service provided
                    by both offices. They also expressed concern about closing the Hatteras office when
                    the NWS modernizes.

                    Emergency managers and NWS officials in all locations stressed the value of reliable
                    communications links between NWS offices and emergency managers, primarily as a
                    real-time tool for sharing information and disseminating warnings. In particular, location
                    of facsimile machines at NWS offices was viewed as very desirable for rapidly sending
                    warnings and statements to emergency managers.

                    Few local emergency management officials rely on NWWS for receiving timely
                    warnings. Instead, they rely on private sector weather companies, NWR, The
                    Weather Channel, or the local media for their information. Most believe that the local
                    NWS office sending the word out in a personal manner (albeit via facsimile) makes the
                    warning more apt to be received and acted upon in a timely manner. The difficulty
                    with facsimile transmissions is that, if there is a long list of addressees, the product
                    being disseminated becomes less and less timely to addressees at the end of the list
                    and the workload is very labor intensive.

                    The emergency managers in Norfolk, Virginia, suggested that the availability of a rapid
                    conference calling capability would be useful for alerting all emergency managers

                                                                56

              involved in the large Hampton Roads area as to the onset of hazardous weather
              conditions.

              At WSO Cape Hatteras, where a facsimile machine is currently in place (compliments
              of local emergency management agencies), a facsimile card for an existing PC was
              suggested. This machine, used as the station AFOS backup terminal, could be
              dedicated to sending NWS products to local officials. This would free the existing
              facsimile machine for receiving reports from these same agencies. Some difficulties
              arose during the Halloween storm when local phone switches were not properly
              aligned. This resulted in non-receipt ofsome reports from local emergency managers.

              Finally, NAWAS was successfully utilized to deliver coastal flood warnings to those
              agencies tied in to the system. However, it was noted that, in almost all cases, the
              system does not extend to the local emergency management level. To reach these
              people, other methods (telephone, NWR, facsimile, etc.) had to be used.

                   lost

                                                                 t

                        Figure 27. A house moved off Its foundation In Scituate, Massachusetts.
                                            Photo courtesy of Pat Viets.

                                                      57

                                       CHAPTER V11 -- USER RESPONSE

                   EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RESPONSE

                   The overall response by most members of the emergency management community
                   was outstanding. Warnings and watches issued by the NWS were used as a basis to
                   alert local communities about the storm. Most officials with whom the DST talked said
                   they had ample warning. They all noted that they communicate regularly with NWS
                   meteorologists and have come to respect the judgment of the forecasters.

                   The MIC at WSFO Boston reported that, from an NWS perspective, the emergency
                   management response in southern New England, the hardest hit area, was effective.
                   Numerous preparations were made by state and local officials hours before the crucial
                   Wednesday afternoon high tides. For example, Massachusetts personnel started to
                   implement that state's emergency action plan at 9 am, EST, Wednesday morning,
                   coastal evacuations were recommended before the brunt of the storm struck, and
                   people and equipment needed for immediate recovery efforts were, in many areas,
                   pre-positiohed by noon. The city of Chatham made plans Wednesday morning to
                   dismiss school early.

                   State emergency managers in New Hampshire realized that a warning for a high tide
                   5 ft above normal would be significant, and they passed the word to their county
                   managers by radio or telephone. However, they told the DST that it was difficult trying
                   to convince officials in the coastal communities of the tide's significance.

                   Some local officials were very responsive in acting on the warnings received. In the
                   town of Scituate, Massachusetts, for example, the emergency services director
                   received word of the storm and drove to the coastal areas to pass the word. (See
                   figures 26 and 27 for damage in that community.) In general, the emergency
                   managers in Massachusetts related weather information to the Blizzard of '78, a storm
                   considered to be a baseline for nor'easters in this part of the country, and realized the
                   potential power the storm packed.

                   The responses uncovered by the DST in New Jersey, however, were not so positive.
                   The probability of a coastal flooding episode was broadcast over NWR and via NWWS
                   starting on Monday, October 28. By October 31, when the worst flooding occurred
                   (well preceded by a coastal flood warning issued by the WSO), little action was found
                   to have been taken. The local officials (together with the media and the public),
                   although notified, did not seem to grasp the significance of the event even though
                   terms like "historic levels" included in the warnings and statements made it clear that a

                                                             58

              significant flooding event was imminent. The general manager of the radio station that
              has Emergency Broadcast System responsibility in the local area told the DST that he
              read the warning as it scrolled by on The Weather Channel but did not grasp the
              significance of the words. The wind and rain that normally heightens the public's
              awareness of coastal storms was absent.

              Many of the local officials and media representatives in attendance at a meeting called
              for the DST in Atlantic City agreed that they saw the warnings and that the message
              they contained was clear. Still they did not react. There were several reasons given
              for this apparent unconcern. However, the underlying basis for the lack of action was:
              Since the skies were fair and there was no strong wind, what could happen?

              MEDIA RESPONSE

              Overall response by the media was on target. Radio and television stations and
              newspapers along the East Coast carried all of the warnings and watches issued by
              the NWS, urged residents of the coastal communities to take shelter, and warned
              them against watching the storm. The Weather Channel did its usual fine job on
              reporting this system.

              The print media, while lacking the immediacy of the electronic media, published
              numerous articles all along the affected areas to increase public awareness of storms.
              Again, the DST received general praise for the flow of information from the NWS. A
              representative from the Portland Press-Herald, for example, said that he had no
              trouble getting information from the WSFO and, in fact, was planning to write more
              weather-related articles to increase public awareness of weather hazards.

              The media all expressed satisfaction in receiving timely and accurate forecasts. A
              reporter from Channel 8 in Portland, Maine, advised the. DST that he needs to
              establish a link with the WSFO and intends to do so. Channel 8 downlinks its
              information via satellite from WSI Corporation.

              One possible problem was mentioned to the DST in this area. Although several of the
              media listened to the NWR, the consensus was that the warnings on NWR in that
              area were not updated frequently enough.

              PUBLIC RESPONSE

              Overall, the public response fell short of the response by emergency managers and
              the media. The storm was a unique event and was so advertised. However, it was
              generally not accompanied by what the public perceives as significant weather. Also,
              like all non-hurricane storms, it was not named.

                                                       59

                   These two factors seem to have played a significant role in the public's apparent lack
                   of concern about the potential power of the storm. Also, NWS forecasters and
                   emergency managers speculated that the general belief among the populace that
                   October is not the time of year that a destructive nor'easter is likely to occur added to
                   this apathy. Whatever the reason, the public generally disregarded the warnings.

                   In researching the lack of response by the public, the DST learned from various
                   sources that the public tends not to understand the significance of coastal flood
                   watches and warnings. Coastal residents without previous first-hand experience had
                   no frame of reference. Faced with sunny skies and the lack of significant weather,
                   many residents did not perceive the potential threat.

                   In the Portland, Maine, area coastal residents said they realized that the storm could
                   potentially be dangerous, but they underestimated its power. Emergency managers
                   said they realized the potential power of the storm but had difficulty convincing coastal
                   communities of the storm's potential power.

                   In Massachusetts, although a state of emergency was declared, no mandatory orders
                   were given to evacuate. This contrasts with Hurricane Bob when at least two of these
                   orders were issued.

                   Information about Bob was provided by the NHC. In the case of the Halloween
                   Nor'easter of 1991, local offices handled dissemination. In some cases, the lack of
                   hurricane status and the lack of a central information point were related to the public's
                   misconception about the storm's potential impact. This was true even though the
                   statements issued by NWS offices were clearly worded and stressed the extreme
                   dangers inherent with the storm.

                   The response of some individuals along the Maine coast can best summarize a typical
                   reaction of many other coastal residents. They knew they were in trouble when the
                   water failed to recede after the morning high tide on October 30. Waves were
                   crashing over the seawall at least 2 hours before the next high tide which was set for
                   4:22 pm, EST, that day. Instead of moving, however, they watched the storm and
                   even videotaped much of it. They moved out of the storm's way only when it became
                   absolutely necessary.

                   In the Boston area and along southern Long Island, the wave battering was the key to
                   the destruction of property. The coastal residents realized that low tide was
                   considerably higher than normal but did little to protect their property.

                   The weather awareness of the populace in the Outer Banks area of North Carolina
                   and the reliance they have on the NWR for their emergency weather information was
                   a notable exception to this trend. (Figures 28 and 29 show examples of the result of

                                                             60

               the storm in this area.) In general, the DST discovered that the use of this medium
               outside of North Carolina was much less than they expected.

               Finally, officials from FEMA also told the team that, in general, people do not respect
               and understand the power of the ocean. Additionally, they reported that some of the
               television meteorologists were tending to overreact. This resulted in skepticism and
               even increased curiosity by the residents. In several areas along the coast, there was
               considerable traffic by sightseers into threatened areas. Such traffic could have
               seriously hampered preparedness efforts and needlessly jeopardized lives. The
               WSFO Boston MIC reported that in Cohasset, people who drove by the beach to view
               the storm had to be rescued.

                                                        61

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       F-9

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           - - - - ------ - - - - - -
                                                                                                                              wvnjjjjM'VpF40-

                                                                                       Figure 28. Sand buried motel In Buxton, North Carolina. Photo courtesy of Mark Koehn.

                                                                                                                            Az

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     V77

                                                                                                                                       Figure 29. Sand buried beach house In Buxton, North Carolina.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Photo courtesy of Mark Koehn.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  62

                   APPENDIX A - SELECTED OFFICE COASTAL FLOOD INSTRUCTIONS

                                                                            WSFO BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS:

                   WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING ACTION SHEET DATE:

                   circle type:                         WINTER STORM WATCH                              WINTER STORM WARNING
                                                        COASTAL FLOOD WATCH                             COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
                                                        HIGH WIND WARNING                               BLIZZARD WARNING

                   COORDINATION:            Before Issuing a watch or warning, coordinate with
                                            the appropriate WSO's and WSFO's by phone or by an
                                            early SFD.

                   Note: East Coast Coordination on Hurricane Hotline may be
                          necessary (see Instructions in WINTER STORM MANUAL)

                   Read watch/wamIng information on NWR _ and NAWAS
                   Disseminate watch/warning via Special Weather Statement.

                   If strong winds and/or high tides may cause coastal flooding,
                   beach erosion, etc., put message on the Coast Guard
                   Circuit _ (use ACOMMS:XMIT 0) and
                   notify Corp of Engineers with special reference to Stamford, CT.
                          Corp of Engineers _ FTS 839-7630 (or 7629)
                                                   or #87 (FTS 81-617-647-8630)
                                                (see Coastal Flood SDM for home numbers).

                   Phone call flat:
                              MEMA Ops 8a-Sp #95 (8-1-508-820-2016)*; 5PM-8am call
                              #96 (81-508-820-2000)* (switch board) ask that receipt
                              of this message be confirmed by MEMA Comms.
                              Director's number 81-508-820-2010 (2011 for secretary).
                              Additional number 1-800-982-6846.

                     MA Fiscal crises forces auto transfer of telcon to answering
                   svc between midnight-7am, 7 days/Week and also 4pm-mfdnlght
                   settsun. The answering svc will ask you If this Is an
                   emergency. Say YES and ask them to notify the person on call to
                   give us a call to relay pertinent Info. When MEMA calls you, you
                   may wish to coordinate further calls the remainder of the shfft@

                        -city of Boston, Highway Dept. - 482-5300 ext. 169.

                              Red Cross - #94 (1-800-462-2705 then dial 911. Upon
                              answer: day shift ask for Duty Officer; 430 pm-830am
                              give Info to a recording).
                        -Nantucket Police (when Included in watch/warning area)
                              81-508-228-1212.

                              FEMA - #93 (81-233-9640) (if calling after hours, on
                              weekends, or holidays, ask the answering servce to
                              have Duty Officer call us).

                   1) Review the staffing situation.
                   2) Special Weather Statements should be issued every three hours
                     during the on-going storms. Include the time of the next
                     Issuance ... and meet the deadline.
                   3) Put snowfall reports for Massachusetts Into OPUBOS.
                   4) For ocean storms ... Initiate hourly buoy plots.
                   5) File Non-Routine Board.

                                                                                                    A-1

                                                                         Coastal Watws Forecast Decision TrOg
                                            WINDS > LIS KTFST@                                                    COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
                                            (SEAS > 5 FT)      - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -            (CWF) ... NO HEADLINE
                                                                           NO                                     ISSUE MAW IF WINDS/SEAS
                                                       YES                                                        DECREASE BY A CATEGORY

                                                                NO                                   NO           ISSUE MARINE
                                            WINDS > 34 FT7S- - - - LASTING > 2                 - - - - - - -      WEATHER
                                                                                                                  STATEMENT (MWS)

                                                                                     YES                          SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
                                                       YES                                                        HEADLINE IN CWF, ISSUE
                                                                                   L- - - - - - - - - - - - -     MARINEADVISORY (MAW)

                                                                    NO    LASTING > 2 HR-          NO             ISSUE SPECIAL MARINE
                                                  ICAL STORM - - -                            - - - - - - -       WARNING (SNPA
                                                   P                                                         I                             I
                                                       YES                           YES

                                                                                                   NO             QALE WARNING HEADLINE
                                                                             INDS > 40 KTS                        IN CWF. ISSUE MARINE
                                             WINDS  1>04                           I     -  I -      I. . . .     WARNING (MAW)
                                                                                   I YES
                                                                                   I- - - - - - - - - - - - -
                                                                    NO                                            STORM WARNING HEADUNE
                                                                                                                  IN CWF. ISSUE MARINE
                                                       YES                                                        WARNING (MAW)
                                                                L     LEAD TIME > 24 HRS           NO
                                                                                             - - - - - -          TROPICAL STORM WARNING
                                                                                                                  IN CWF

                                                                                        YES
                                                         E>                         - - - - - - - - - - - -       TROPICAL STO         - - -
                                              LEAD TIM                                                            WATCH IN C
                                                24 HRS
                                                                I NO
                                                                - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -           HURRICANE WARNING
                                                                                                                  IN CWF

                                                       YES

                                                    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -           HURRICANEWATCH
                                                                                                                  IN CWF

                                                                                                                  ISSUE HURRICANE LOCAL
                                                                                                                  STATEMENTS (HLS) AS
                                                                                                                  NEEDED

                                                                      COASTAL FLOODING DECISION TREE
                                                                                                             YES
                                            MINOR F               - - - - -  I DURING A WIRTERWrMM]-               ISSUIEWINTERWEATHER
                                                                     YES                                           STATEMENT (SPS)
                                                                              I NO
                                                  NO                                ISSUE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (MWS)
                                            LEADTIME                    YES  . . . .   ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING (CFM

                                                 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -       ISSUE OASTAL FLOOD WATCH (CFA)
                                                    NO                                ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS
                                                                                        (CFS) AS NEEDED

                                                                                             A-2

                                                                                WSFO PORTLAND, MAINE:

                                                                                         JULY 1, 1986                SELECTING JULIAN DATE TERMINAL WILL DOUBLE PRINT.
                                                                                                                     THIS IS NORMAL).
                       TO:                      ALL                                                          12.     COMPUTER WILL ASK FOR DUMP TIME. SELECT TIME IN EST
                                                                                                                     FOR WHICH PRINTOUT IS TO BEGIN AND ENTER. (IN
                       FROM:                     FRED                                                                SELECTING TIME TERMINAL WILL DOUBLE PRINT. THIS IS
                                                                                                                     NORMAL).
                       SUBJ:                    TIDE READINGS FROM PORTLAND HARBOR                           13.     READINGS WILL BE GIVEN AT 15 MINUTE INTERVALS FROM
                                                                                                                     DUMP DATE AND TIME TO PRESENT. (TIDE AND BATTERY
                               THE WAY THE TIDE READINGS ARE OBTAINED FOR PORTLAND                                   READINGS).
                       HARBOR HAS BEEN CHANGED. THE READINGS ARE MADE BY                                     14.     AFTER PRINTOUT HAS FINISHED, COMPUTER WILL ASK FOR
                       COMPUTER AND THE READINGS MUST BE OBTAINED FROM THE                                           ANOTHER DUMP DATE. MAKE NO ENTRIES FOR A LEAST ONE
                       COMPUTER. THE PROCEDURE IS NOT SIMPLE LIKE IT USED TO 81;                                     MINUTE. THIS ALLOWS COMPUTER TO DISCONNECT.
                       AS THERE IS NO DIRECT READOUT IN THIS OFFICE.                                         15.     ONCE DISCONNECT OCCURS, STRIKE -BREAK- KEY.
                                                                                                             16.     TYPE "S" AND ENTER.
                               TIDE READINGS ARE STILL AVAILABLE. THEY ARE JUST NOT                          17.     TYPE "SETCOM A-OFF" AND ENTER.
                       AS EASY TO OBTAIN. THIS CHANGE IS PART OF A NATIONAL                                  18.     TYPE "S" AND ENTER.
                       CHANGE TAKING PLACE AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE GLORIA.                                  19.     TYPE 'DO MODEM300" AND ENTER.
                       MANY TIDE GAGE READINGS (INCLUDING OURS) WERE UNAVAILABLE                             20.     TYPE "T"AND ENTER.
                       AT THE TIME THEY WERE NEEDED MOST BECAUSE OF POWER
                       FAILURES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL PROVIDE A READING AS LONG                            >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                       AS A TELEPHONE LINE IS AVAILABLE.
                                                                                                             V.      COASTAL FLOOD WATCHESIWARNINGS/STATEMENTS
                               THE TIDE READINGS CAN BE OBTAINED BY ONE OF TWO                                         WSOM C-43
                       METHODS. CALL THE COMPUTER AND GET A VOICE READING.                        OR
                       CALL THE COMPUTER ON THE TRS-80 AND GET A PRINTOUT OF                                 Coastal Flooding Is defined as being from 2 causes, storm surge and heavy
                       READINGS AT 15 MINUTE INTERVALS.                                                      surf. It a MWS Is Issued for surf conditions, it should headline "HEAVY
                                                                                                             SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT".
                               THE COMPUTER IS ALARMED TO CALL US ON 780-3552
                       WHENEVER THE 11DE GOES ABOVE 11 FEET. THE CALL WILL BE A                              COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS and HEAVY SURF
                       COMPUTER GENERATED VOICE THAT SOUNDS A LITTLE UNUSUAL.                                ADVISORIES shall be headlined In appropriate coastal zones, local, and
                       IF YOU A FUNNY SOUNDING CALL ON THE FITS LINE, IT MAY BE THE                          marine forecasts.
                       TIDE GAGE CALLING TO ALERT US OF A TIDE READING ABOVE 11
                       FEET.                                                                                 If coastal flooding Is expected due to a winter storm on which we are issuing
                                                                                                             WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPS), we can Include any coastal flood
                               TO FIND OUT WHAT THE COMPUTER GENERATED VOICE                                 watch/warning or heavy surf advisory Information In the WINTER WEATHER
                       SOUNDS LIKE, CALL FOR A READING. THE TELEPHONE NUMBER IS                              STATEMENT. At other times we will have to teat them as a separate event.
                       9-871-7215. YOU WILL GET THE IDENTIFIER (ID001). THE TIDE
                       READING, A READING OF BATTERY VOLTAGE, AND A REPEAT OF THE                            COASTAL FLOOD WATCH..AFOS heading..CFAPWM
                       IDENTIFIER. THIS IS THE SAME PROCEDURE FOR OBTAINING A                                A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH should be Issued for possible coastal flooding
                       READING.                                                                              within the next 12 to 36 hours.

                       >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                           COASTAL FLOOD WARNING..AFOS headIng..CFWPWM
                                                                                                             A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING shall be Issued for coastal flooding
                       SUBJ: TIDE READINGS FROM PORTLAND HARBOR                                              expected within the next 12 hours.

                               TO OBTAIN A READING USING THE TRS-80 IS A LITTLE MORE                         COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT..AFOS he'ading..CFSPWM
                       INVOLVED. IT REQUIRES A NUMBER OF COMMANDS TO RESET THE                               A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT Is used to revise, extend, cancel, or
                       TRS-80 TO THE PROPER PARITY AND THEN RETURN IT FOR HYDRO                              update COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS.
                       USE ONCE YOU ARE FINISHED. THE PROPER COMMANDS ARE:
                                                                                                             A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (MWS) Is used In lieu of the above
                       1 .     STRIKE "BREAK" KEY.                                                           products during minor coastal flooding episodes or when the severity and
                       2.      TYPE "S" AND ENTER.                                                           extent of coastal flooding are uncertain.
                       3.      TYPE "SETCOM A=OFF" AND ENTER.
                       4.      TYPE "S" AND ENTER.                                                           When referring to a forecast or occurence of tidal heights above normal in
                       5.      TYPE -SETCOM A=)" AND ENTER.                                                  any statement, watch,or warning concerning coastal flooding, it shall be
                       6.      TYPE "T" AND ENTER.                                                           referenced to the heights above mean low water MLW at Portland as well.
                       7.      TYPE "ATDT9,8717215"AND ENTER.                                                (Use NOS tide tables for values). The statement, "To convert mean low
                       8.      AFTER CONNECTION STRIKE "CONTROL S".                                          water MLW to mean sea level MSL subtract 4.6 feet from the MLW value."
                       9.      COMPUTER WILL PRINT THREE LINES OF DATA.                                      shall be Included. (from ERH Memo May 6, 1988).
                               1ST LINE CONTAINS IS CODE, JULIAN DATE, AND TIME IN EST
                               2ND LINE (BEGINS WITH 01) CONTAINS TIDE READINGS                              EXAMPLE: The combination of very strong onshore winds and an
                               3RD LINE (BEGINS WITH 02) CONTAINS BATTERY VOLTAGE                            astronomical high tide early in the afternoon will produce tides 2 to 3 feet
                               READINGS                                                                      above normal at the time of high tide. In Portland, the tide will reach 12.5 to
                       10.     AFTER READINGS ARE COMPLETE, STRIKE -CONTROL S" TO                            13.5 feet above moan low water MLW between 1230 PM and 130 PM. To
                               OBTAIN PRINTOUT OF OLD DATA.                                                  convert mean low water MLW to mean sea level MSL subtract 4.6 feet from
                       11.     COMPUTER WILL ASK FOR DUMP DATE. SELECT JULIAN DATE                           the MLW value.
                               FOR WHICH PRINTOUT IS TO BEGIN AND ENTER. (IN
                                                                                                             Do not use references to MLW, MSL or exact tidal times In the CWFPWM.

                                                                                                  A-3

                                        PROBABILITY OF MAXIMUM ANNUAL STORM SURGE FOR PORTLAND,                                                                        FREQUENCY (RETURN PERIODS)
                                        MAINE (based on data 1914-1959) from Fig 5.2 Std Project
                                        Northeaster, May, 1963. (feet)                                                                                                 3.0 feet or higher ... once every 4.5 years
                                                                                                                                                                                         last time ... February 7, 1978
                                        SURGE                                                                     SURGE
                                        1.2             every                 1.0         year                    2.0     every                 1.3 yrs                3.5 feet or higher-once every 10 years
                                        2.2             every                 1.5         yrs                     2.5     every                 2.2 yrs                                  last time ... February 7, 1978
                                        2.4             every                 2           yrs                     3.0     every                 4.5 yrs
                                        2.7             every                 3           yrs                     3.5     every                 10    yrs              4.0 feet or higher ... once every 23 years
                                        3.2             every                 5           yrs                     4.0     every                 23    yrs                                last time ... March 3, 1947
                                        3.5             every                 10          yrs                     4.5     every                 50    yrs
                                        4.2             every                 25          yrs                     5.0     every                 125.  yrs              FREQUENCY BY MONTH (all but one from winter storms)
                                        4.5             every                 so          yrs                     5.5     every                 275   yrs
                                        4.8             every                 100         yrs                                                                          OCT.           NOV.              DEC.             JAN.             FEB.               MAR.          AUG.
                                                                                                                                                                       1              3                 3                1                2                  3               1

                                        PROBABILITY OF EXTREME HIGH TIDE HEIGHTS AT PORTLAND,
                                        MAINE (based on data 1914-1959) from Fig 5.4 Std Project                                                                       TOP TEN TIDES AT PORTLAND (reference height MLLW)
                                        Northeaster, May, 1963. Reference to MLW In feet with
                                        respect to tidal datum epoch (1924-1942).                                                                                      1) 14.17 feet February 07, 1976
                                                                                                                                                                       2) 13.98 feet January 09, 1978
                                        MAXIMUM ANNUAL SURGE                                                      *ALL SURGES COMBINED                                 3) 13.40 feet December 04, 1990
                                        COMBINED WITH ASTRONOMICAL                                                WITH ALL' ASTRONOMICAL                               4) 13.31 feet March, 16, 1976
                                        HIGH TIDE ASSUMING                                                        TIDE, NOT SIMULTANEOUS                               5) 13.29 feet November 30, 1944
                                        SIMULTANEOUS OCCURENCE                                                                                                         5) 13.29 feet November 20, 1945
                                                                                                                                                                       6) 13.18 feet January 02, 1987
                                        HEIGHT                                                                                                                         6) 13.18 feet October 30, 1991
                                        10.0 ...... every                     1. 1 yrs    ...... every            1 yr                                                 7) 13.18 feet April 07, 1958
                                        10.5 ...... every                     1.3 yrs     ...... every            1 yr                                                 7) 13.09 feet December 29, 1959
                                        11.0 ...... every                     1.7 yrs     ...... every            1 yr                                                 7) 13.09 feet February 19, 1972
                                        11.5 ...... every                     2.3 yrs     ...... every            1 yr                                                 8) 13.07 feet January 28, 1979
                                        12.0 ...... every                     3.8 yrs     ...... every            2 yr                                                 9) 12.80 feet December 03, 1986
                                        12.5 ...... every                     6 yrs       ...... every            8 yrs                                                10) 12.79 feet April 28,1940
                                        13.0 ...... every                     13 yrs            every             35 yrs                                               10) 12.79 feet January 20, 1961
                                        13.5 ...... every                     24 hrs      ...... every            100 yrs
                                        14.0 ...... every                     55 yrs      ...... every            300 yrs                                              >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                        14.5 ...... every                     130 yrs     ...... every            750 yrs
                                        14.7 ......                                       ..... every             1000 yrs                                             FREQUENCY (return periods)
                                        15.0 ...... every                     370 yrs
                                        15.4 ...... every                     1000 yrs                                                                                 13.0 feet..:once every 10 years
                                                                                                                                                                                      last time ... October 30, 1991
                                        *The probability of these heights occuring through 12.0 ft.                                                                    13.5 feet ...  once every 50 years
                                        Is higher because these heights are a probability distribution                                                                                lost time...February 7, 1978
                                        of the quantity total tide at time of maximum annual surge and not the
                                        quantity maximum annual total tide. These quantities are the same for                                                          14.0 feet ...  once every 170 years
                                        high tide heights but not for low tide heights. (p. 53, Std
                                        Prjct NEer).
                                                                                                                                                                       OCT.           NOV.              DEC.             JAN.             FEB.               MAR.          AUG.
                                        >>>>>>;.>>>>>>>>>>>.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                                  1              2                 3                4                2                  1               2

                                        TOP TEN STORM SURGES SINCE 1914 AT PORTLAND, MAINE                                                                             >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                                        1) 4.3 feet March 3, 1947                                                                                                      SPRING TIDE DATA
                                        2) 4.1 feet March 1, 1914
                                        3) 3.9 feet Dec. 14, 1917                                                                                                                     Normal 10.4 feet above MLLW
                                        4) 3.6 feet Dec. 19, 1972                                                                                                                     Maximum 11.7 feet above MLLW
                                        5) 3.5 feet Nov. 26, 1950
                                        5) 3.5 feet Feb. 07, 1978
                                        5) 3.5 feet Oct. 30, 1991
                                        6) 3.3 feet Nov. 30,         1945
                                        6) 3.3 feet Aug. 31,         1954
                                        (Hurricane Carol)
                                        7) 3.2 feet Dec. 02,1942
                                        8) 3.1 feet Mar. 16,1956
                                        9) 3.0 feet Jan. 15,         1940
                                        9) 3.0 feet Feb. 07,         1951
                                        10) 2.9 feet Nov. 13, 1925

                                                                                                                                                   A-4

                                                                                WSFO NEW YORK, NEW YORK:

                                           COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CHECKLIST                                           2. WSFO Boston           FTS 835-4662J63

                                                DATE                                                               3. WSO Newark            DILS 5353

                         Before Issuing a Coastal Flood Watch (CFA), coordinate with the following:                >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@l.>>>>>

                         Note:      Calls to WSFOs might be unnecessary If Watch Is discussed                      NOTIFICATION PHASE
                                    during the EAST COAST COORDINATION CALL. Log time of
                                    coordination.                                                                  After a decision has been reached to Issue a Warning, and the Warning has
                                                                                                                   been composed and transmitted on AFOS, notify the following:
                         1. WSFO Boston                       FTS 835-4661/2/3
                                                                                                                   4. New Jersey SEMO day 609-822-2000 ext 2859
                         2. WSFO Philadelphia                 FTS 597-3696/0845                                                               night 609-822-2000
                                                                                                                   Note: at night, ask that the emergency management duty officer call back
                         3. WSO Newark                        201-DLS-5353                                         Immediately
                                                              201-624-8098
                                                                                                                   5. Suffolk Go. EMO       day 516-924-4400
                         4. Issue a Coastal Flood Watch statement (CFA) to Initiate the Coastal                                             night 516-286-5354
                         Flood Watch. Make sure the statement contains the UNIVERSAL GENERIC
                         CODE LINE In the header.                                                                  6. Nassau Go. EMO            day 516-535-7521/6f7
                                                                                                                         (Police comm.)         night 516-535-7606
                         5. Broadcast the CFA on NWFI.        (May be combined with the weather map
                         discussion.) DO NOT tone alert.                                                           7. Westchester Co.       day 914-285-3026
                                                                                                                                            night 914-741-4400
                         6. If watch covers northern Now Jersey,
                         make sure NJ SEMO received it (NJ NAWAS)                                                  Note: at night, ask county police to page emergency management personnel
                         and that It is broadcast on NAWAS.
                                                                                                                   8. New York City EMO              day 374-5580
                         7*Call the NE Bronx Planning day                                                                                            night 374-5580           -
                         212-892-1161, night 212-828-0862
                                                                                                                   9. Rockland Co. EMO               day 914-354-8259
                         8. Advise NY State Warning Point to                                                                                         night 941-354-8111        -
                         read Watch Bulletin over NAWAS.
                                                                                                                   Note: If flooding Is NOT expected along the lower Hudson River, do not call.
                         9. Call the RED CROSS: 212-787-0210
                         or 212-870-8855 If serious or major coastal                                               10. NE Bronx Planning             day 212-892-1161
                         flooding Is a potential.                                                                                                    night 212-828-1393-

                         10. Inform MIC 718-268-6518 and DMIC                                                      11. NY State SEMO                 day 518-457-2200
                         516-331-7206 when they arrive at the office.                                                                                night 518-457-2200

                                                                                                                   12. Advise NY State Warning Point to read
                                                                                             Rev. 2/14/91              Warning Bulletin over NAWAS.
                                                                                                                   13. Read Warning Bulletin over NJ NAWAS
                         11. Issue follow-up statements (CFSNYC) every 3-6 hours.                                  14. Broadcast Warning Bulletin over NWR.
                                                                                                                       Tone alert only if flooding Is expected
                         Note:      If a Coastal Flood Watch and Winter Storm Watch/Warning are                        within the next several hours AND a
                                    headlined together, a separate CFS Is not needed. Include the                      Watch has not been In effect.
                                    CFS Info within the Special Weather Statement. Don't forget the                15. Phone the RED CROSS: 787-1000/0210
                                    UGCsI                                                                              If serious or major coastal flooding is
                                                                                                                       expected.
                                                                                            Rev. 2/14/91)          16. Notify MIG 516-543-1317 or
                                                                                                                               DMIC 201-297-5631
                         >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@,.>                             17. Issue frequent follow-up statements (CFSNYC) as needed
                                                                                                                       Make sure the time of the next statement Is mentioned. Note: If a
                                 CALL AND COORDINATION LIST: Coastal Flood Warning                                     Coastal Flood Warning and Winter Storm Warning are headlined
                                                                                                                       together, a separate CFS Is not necessary. Information normally
                         COORDINATION PHASE                                                                            Included In the CFS is to be included in the SPS's Issued for the Winter
                                                                                                                       Storm Warning.
                         Before Issuing a Coastal Flood Warning (CFW),
                         coordinate with the following:                                                            >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                                                          TIME
                         INITIALS

                         1. WSO Atlantic City 609-645-7433
                                                 NOTE: do not give out;
                                                 this Is a highly
                                                 restricted number

                                                                                                       A-5

                                                                                          WSO NORFOLK, VIRGINIA:

                                             WSO NORFOLK VA STATION DUTY MANUAL                                         Ill. COAST GUARD
                                                                                                                             Coast Guard reports are available at the three hourly
                                                      COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS                                                 Intervals ... However ... they can be obtained as often as needed by
                                      Reference WSOM D-51 and associated ROMLS and OMLS                                      conalcting CG Headquarters In Portsmouth or call the station direct. While
                                                                                                                             tide data Is not part of the station reports some of the stations might be
                            COASTAL FLOOD PROGRAM                                                                            able to give estimated heights of tides
                            Coastal flooding ranges from minor tidal overflow having little effect to major
                            storm surge Inundations with heavy surf. Although It Is WSFO Washington's                   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                            responsibility to issue the COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING you
                            should notify them of the potential for significant flooding. It Is WSO                     IV. FORECASTING TIDE LEVELS AND AREA CRITICAL TIDE LEVELS
                            NORFOLK'S responsibility to issue the COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.
                                                                                                                             1. There Is a forecast program In the AST that will give you an estimate of
                            1.PRODUCTS                                                                                       the tide levels throughout our warning area based on the Sewells Point
                                                                                                                             estimated crest. You can use your own subjective forecast crest for
                            a. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH(AFOS category CFA)- Coastal Flood Watch                                   Sewells Point or use the objective forecast found In AFOS under
                            should be Issued by WBG for coastal flooding which Is expected In the next                       WBCMRPECS.
                            12 to 36 hours. This would be set off at the top of the forecast like any other                  9. At AST hit ESC (this will take you out of the program)**
                            Watch. Is ... Coastal Flood Watch...                                                             b. Type B: ... then return
                                                                                                                             c. Type Basic ... then return        -PRINTER MUST BE IN THE B
                            b. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING(AFOS category CFW- A Coastal Flood                                      d. Type Load"Tides"...then return         POSITION AS FORECASTS ARE
                            Warning Is Issued when flooding Is occurring or Is expected to occur in the                      e. Type Run                           PRINTED ON IT.
                            next 12 to 24 hours. This too Is highlighted before the body of the local                        I. At this point the program will be sell explanatory. When you are done
                            forecast. In addition a description of the flooding is given In the body of the                    to return to the normal ABT system Type System ... return, Type A:
                            forecast and a forecast of the tide crest for the next one or two high tides at                    ... return, Type AST ... return. You should then be back to normal.
                            Sewells Point should be given In the tide section of the forecast.                               2. Critical Tide Levels
                                                                                                                                    Minimum Flood        Major Flood      Tide of Record
                            c. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT(AFOS category CF� M:CFS). A                                           Norfolk       5.0               6.5          9.7 All Heights MLW
                            Coastal Flood Statement Is Issued by WSO NORFOLK to update the public                            Yorktown      4.0               6.5          9.7
                            on why a Coastal Flood Watch or Warning has been Issued and the                                  Gloucester Pt 5.0               6.0          7.1
                            .expected coverage and extent of tidal flooding for ALL of eastern Virginia.                     Urbanna       3.0               5.0          5.7
                            Normally you would Issue a CFS just after a Watch or Warning were Issued                         Gwynns Is.    5.5               7.5          8.0
                            and at least every six hours during a Watch or Warning. There are                                Muddy Greek   2.0               4.0          5.2
                            numerous help sheets In the rear of this section that will give tidal                            (Near Belle Haven)
                            relationships between Sewells Point and other locations in our area of                           Tangier Is    2.0               3.0          4.2
                            responsibility. Don't hesitate to call any of the normal cooperative                             Cape Charles 3.0                5.0          8.4
                            observers ... County or City agencies ... or Amateur Radio observers to get                      Wachapreague 7.5                11.0         12.3
                            Information on the severity or extent of flooding.                                               Chfncogteague 2.5               6.0          8.4

                            >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                 REMEMBER      ... GIVE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE                  ABOVE MEAN
                                                                                                                        LOW WATER      ... ABOVE NORMAL ... AND IN EXTREME FLOODING ABOVE
                            SOURCES OF WATER LEVELS...TIDAL INFORMATION OR SPECIAL                                      MSL.
                            WARNING INFORMATION page EA 10/8

                            1. LOCAL TIDE GAGES AND/OR RECORDERS                                                        ESTIMATED TIDAL RECURRENCESINTERVALS(from Corps House
                              1. Sewells Point, Pier 2 at Norfolk Navy Base. Handar 423-6725.                           Document 215 2/3/64)
                              2. South Island Chesapeake Bay Bridge and Tunnel, Handar 464-2208.
                              3. City Seawall Pumping Station, dowtown Norfolk. Telemark 441-5396.                      RECURRENCE         MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL(abv MSLaadd 1.25'to got MLW)
                                 Coded message ... subtrack 1.0 to get MLW reading.                                     INTERVAL           NORFOLK NAVAL SHIPYARD                  SEWELLS
                              4. Fort Norfolk, Corps of Engineers, hours 8 to 5, M - F. 441-3665.                       YEARS              PORTSMOUTH                              POINT
                                 Subtrack 0.5 for MLW.                                                                  1                  4.4                                     3.8
                              S. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard ... recorder In OD office, 24 hours 396-3221                 5                  5.5                                     4.9
                                 subtrack 92.89 from reading to get MLW.                                                10                 6.2                                     5.5
                              6. Langley AFB ... local 622-0052 ask for field weather or weather                        25                 7.1                                     6.3
                                 forecaster or 1-764-5908.                                                              50'                7.8                                     6.9
                                                                                                                        100                8.5                                     7.6
                            11. INFORMATION FROM OTHER LOCATIONS IN OUR COUNTY
                            WARNING AREA                                                                                The standard project flood-I in 500 year storm ... Is IS' MSL In downtown
                                                                                                                        Norfolk and 13' MSL at Sewells Point.
                              1. Gloucester Point ... VIMS ... 8 to 5 Mon - Pri...1-642-7272 ask for Dr.
                                 Boone or Mr. Thomas. They must manually reed.Altemate phone I-                         >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                 642-7000 (switchboard)
                              2. Lewlsette Marina, VA. Mr.Scerbo 529-7299 ... NOS Gage-They read it
                                 In the morning but can give you a manual look see.          ,
                              3. Wachapreague ... 787-5816...recorder, business hours only. Subtract
                                 2 feet for MLW or ask for the reading in MLW.
                              4. Colonial Beach ... NOS recorder ... telemetered to WSFO, Washington or
                                 call observer Mr. Jackson 224-7066.

                                                                                                           A-6

                      TIME AND NORMAL TIDAL DEPARTURES FOR OTHER LOCATIONS                                                  Virginia Beach O.E.S. 427-4192/4228, Home 486-1340 Mark
                      BASED ON SEWELLS POINT                                                                                Marchbank
                                         HIGH WATER        LOW WATER
                                         Height Time       Height Time                                                      Portsmouth O.E.S. 383-8551, Home 383-1800 Donald Brown
                      Outer Coast
                      Virginia Beach     +0.9   -1:30      0.0   -1:35                                                      Norfolk, O.E.S. 441-5600/5610 Home 497-1277 Jim Talbot
                      False Cape         +1.1   -1:45      0.0   -1:45
                      Cape Henry         +0.3   -0:52      0.0   -1:15                                                      Hampton, O.E.S. 727-7414 Home 722-4850 Kurt Schaffer
                      Chesapeake Bay
                      Lynhaven Inlet     -0.5   -0:13      0.0   +0:01                                          Any local statements that you feel are significant should go on NAWAS and
                      Bayville(Lynhav-   -0:8   +0:46      0.0   +1:38                                          brought to the attention of those communities affected.
                             en)
                      Newport News       +0.1   +0:20      0.0   +0:18                                          There will be many cases where WBC will Issue a Coastal Flood Warning
                      Jamestown          -0.6   +2.54      0.0   +3:26                                          that you feel does not apply to coastal Virginia. If you have a Warning
                      Smithfield         +0.3   +1.25      0.0   +1:18                                          where It appears our tides will not go to 5.5 feet or higher, the calls are
                      Gloucester Point   -0.1   +0:16      0.0   +0:07                                          optional based on the amount of time you have. If you do call, make sure
                      Yorktown           -0.1   +0:16      0.0   +0:07                                          you give some sort of a tide crest forecast at a minimum for Sewells Point
                      Windmill Point     0.48xSP+1.49      0.48xSP+2:08                                         with estimates for the other areas. See the following pages in this section
                      Urbanna            0.56xSP+2:38      0.56xSP+2:59                                         for forecast hints on estimating tide heights.
                      Gwyns Island       0.52xSP+1:25      0.52xSP+2:02
                      Chesapeake Bay Western Shore                                                              An example of a Coastal Flood Statement Is on the next page.
                      Muddy Creek        -0.3 +3:14        0:0 +3.43                                            ... TIDES ABC INTERROGATION INFORMATION IN THIS SECTION...
                      Tangier Sound      0.64xSP+2:51      0.64xSP+2-48
                      Light                                                                                     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;@>>>>>>>>>>
                      Onancock           -0.77 +2.52       0.0 +3:09
                      Cape Charles       -0.1 -0:18        0.0 -0:03                                            THE LISTED ARE DESCRIPTIONS OF THE EXTENT OF FLOODING
                                                                                                                CAUSED BY SPECIFIC TIDAL FLOOD EVENTS.
                      Outer coast of the Eastern Shore should be taken off Sandy Hook NJ using
                      the NOS Tide Tables. An approximadon of the surge can be obtained by                      April 13, 1988
                      using our surge and that for BWH. There Is also an hourly listing of the tides            Two high tides approximately 7AM and PM..The tide reached 5.8 feet above
                      for Wallops Island In the SDM.                                                            MLW at the Seawall and 5.9 feet above MLW and South Island for both high
                                                                                                                tides. The storm was caused by a closed low aloft that drifted east through
                                                                                                                Alabama, Georgia etc. the surface low was basically vertical with the upper
                      REFER TO THE NOS TIDE TABLES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION                                   low and was just east of Wilmington NG during the morning high tide and
                      AND FOR OTHER LOCATIONS NOT LISTED ON THIS SHEET.                                         about 100 miles see of HAT at the time of even Ing high. Winds from the
                                                                                                                ENE to NE persisted from the previous afternoon and averaged 30 to 40
                      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>-                              MPH prior to the morning and evening high tide. Peak gusts over 50 knots
                                                                                                                occurred at the coastal marine reporting stations until mid afternoon when
                                         COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CALL LIST                                        they diminished prior to the evening high tide.
                                                 WSO NORFOLK VIRGINIA
                                                                                                                Norfolk .... no damage, numerous streets were flo(;ded some impassable. The
                                                         MAKE COPIES                                            dock area from the Omnl east through Bessles Place had water 2 to 4 feet
                                                                                                                deep. The Tidewater Park area had flooded streets and at least two homes
                      The forecast office In Washington has the primary responsibility for issuing a            had water a couple of Inches deep Into the living area. Ocean View and
                      COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING. However, If time does not                                Willoughby had street flooding that backed up from street drains. The beach
                      permit a coordination call, the final responsibility rests with us especially for         that was re-built two years ago saved them from structural damage from
                      the Hampton Roads Area where we have tide information and a forecast                      buildings too near the water. Erosion on the beaches was just under
                      (WBCMPECS). For local purposes a COASTAL FLOOD WARNING should                             moderate,
                      be Issued whenever the local height above MLW will be 5.5 to 6 feet or
                      greater. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING Issued by WBC will be followed as                        Hampton-no sign IfIcant damage, water Into 4 homes numerous streets
                      soon as possible by a COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT M:CFS. The                                  flooded and some Impassable. Most of the flooding was In Buckroe and the
                      COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT will also be used for all coastal flood                           Grandview areas and along Hampton Greek.
                      information that may be Issued following a Coastal Flood Watch Issued by
                      WSFO Washington. SEE OPERATIONS MANUAL LETTER 2-86 FILED                                  Poquoson ... many streets covered with 4 Inches to 2 feet of water. 8 homes
                      WITH CHAPTER D-51 IN THE WSOM.                                                            known to have water In them, 200 to 300 had water around them.

                      DISSEMINATION FOR COASTAL FOOD WARNING                                                    Portsmouth ... no homes and no damage, Crawford Pky and a few other
                                                                                                                streets wore Impassable.
                      1. Call the MIC
                      2. Prepare a Coastal Flood Statement M:CFS..address to ce and put it on                   Chesapeake...no known flood problem.
                      the NWR. Use TONE ALERT for the first statement of each new Coastal
                      Flood Warning.                                                                            Newport News    ... no known flood problem.

                      DATErrIME ISSUED                                                                          Virginia Beach  ... damage estimated at 3.6 million. Street flooding mainly in
                      CALL LIST                                                                                 the Lynhaven Shores, Bay Island, and some In Bay Colony. The majority of
                                                                                                                the damage occurred in Sandbridge from erosion and wave action. One
                                  Virginia Office of Emergency Services (read statement on                      home almost totally destroyed, 3 homes with major damage. A large section
                                  NAWAS If WBC hasn't done so)                                                  of Sandfiddler Road was undermined and collapsed.

                                  Virginia State Highway Department 494-2451 nights 487-3546                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                                  Red Cress If major evacuation expected 446-7745 nights 427-
                                  3823 (Rick Russell)

                                                                                                     A-7

                     APPENDIX B - SELECTED STATE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS

                  STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGHIDURHAM, NO                              NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWYORK NY
                  244 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 1991                                               230 PM EST SUN OCT 27 1991

                  GENLY SAME FCST AS PAST SVRL WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. FIRST            DISC: INTERESTING FCST.
                  SL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MUCH OF CNTRL AND NEARLY SUN
                  MORNING SINE HAD LOTS OF LOG THIS MORNING-AND BECAUSE NGM                FIRST FCST PROB IS FOG. 18Z USCG STATIONS REPORTED VSBY FM 0 TO
                  BNDRY RH FCST NR 100 PCR OVERNIGHT AND LO LVL THICKENS CHART             I MI IN FOG. USCG AT SANDY HOOK AND ROCKAWAY REPORTED 0 MI IN
                  THIS MRNG SHOWD WEAK WEDGE OVR PIEDMT. HAVE CONTD TO TRACK               FOG AND FIRE ISLAND REPORTED 1/2 MI IN FOG. WITH SFC COLD FNT
                  BAND OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS OVER OPEN WATERS MOVG WWD TWD NO                JUST MVG INTO EXTREME WRN NY AND PA ... THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO
                  CST. SINCE FEW MOVED INLAND LAST NIGHT..WL MENTION 20 PCT CHO            IMMEDIATELY LIFT FOG. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOR ADVISORY FOR ALL
                  RW FOR CSTL ZNS..BUT WL RESTRICT ANY OTHERS TO CSTL WTRS                 COASTAL AREAS TNGT. FOG WILL LIFT WITH PASSAGE OF FNT LATE TNGT.
                  SUNISUN NGT. TRMW PTLY CLOUDY WITH LTL TEMP CHANGE.. THINK
                  GUID TEMPS AGAIN TOO LOW.                                                SECOND FCST PROB IS CHO OF WHWRS TNGT. LEADING EDGE OF LGT
                                                                                           SHWRS IS OVER WRN NY AND PA. SHWRS MVG NE BETWEEN 20 AND 26
                  MAIN WX FTR TO CONCRND WITH IS MNLY A MARINE PROBLEM-FOR NOW             KTS. BEST CHO OF SHWRS WILL FCST FOR NW NJ..ZONE I AND
                  UPR LO WHICH HAS NOW WORKED ITS WAY DOWN TO SFC NR 28N 66W IS            ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES..NY ZONE 14. WILL IGNORE
                  FCST BY MIA TO MOVE NW TO 3ON70W (PER HIGH SEAS FCST) WITH 360           FWC PERCENT PROG POPS OF 20 PERCENT IN FOURTH PD. ATTM..SEE NO
                  NM OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NFIN SEMICROL. THIS PUTS GALE FORCE            JUSTIFICATION FOR THESE POPS.
                  WINDS WITHIN 60 MILE OF HAT BY LATE SUN. SAT PIX SHOWS SYSTEM IN
                  GULF MEX MOVGI EWD AND ITS OUTFLOW IS WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM             THIRD FCST PROB IS WINDS. SFO LOW NORTH OF NY INTENSIFIES AS IS
                  OF CONCERN.. AND ITS OUTFLOW HAS BULGED BACK WNWWD IN                    MVS EAST..THEN COMBINES WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
                  RESPONSE. AVN MODEL AND MOST OTHER MDLS INCLUDING EUROPEAN               GRACE WLL OFFSHORE DURING MON. SFC WIND GRAD BETWEEN STORM
                  MODELS TAK SYSTEM ON N.NOT NW OR W. BUT NGM HAS BEEN                     LOW PRES SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES SYS OVR SE CANADA
                  CONSISTENT IN PAST 2 TUNS IN CXSTS CLOSD SFC LO CNTR NT 28W              INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER AREA MON. ATTM. WILL ISSUE GALE
                  76W..AND LOOP OF NGM BNDRY WINDS SHOWS WATCHG.FOR NOT WL UP              WARNINGS FOR COASTAL WATER INCLUDING LI SOUNDS AND SCA FOR NY
                  WNDS TO 25 TO 30 KTS FOR CSTL WATERS BY SUN NGT..BUT TOO FAR             HARBOR.
                  AWAY IN TIME TO ISSUE SCA.
                                                                                           GET READY FOR SIG CHILL. AUTUMN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
                  VERY DEEP WRN U.S. TROF FCST TO DEVELOP NEXT 36-48 HRS WITH RDG
                  AMPLIFY IN E. UPR TRO OFF NE U.S. CST DEEPENS A LTL LATE IN PD AND       NY...SERN ... DENSE FOR ADVY TNGT Z14>17
                  NGM/AVN BOTH HINT AT SUBTLE PSBL BACKDOOR FROPA INTO NERN NO                  ... GALE WARNINGS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND LI SOUND
                  ON MON AFTERNOON. WL SHADE TEMPS DOWNWARD THERE ON                            ... SCA FOR NY HARBOR
                  CAUTIOUS SIDE..NC  NONE GAF                                              NJ NRN ... DENSE FOR ADVY TNOT Z05-07-15
                                                                                              ... GALE WARNINGS FOR COASTAL WATERS

                  FORECAST DISCUSSION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA                                       STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
                  320 AM EST SUN OCT 27 1991                                               NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE t RALEIGH, DURHAM, NO
                                                                                           222 AM EST WED OCT 30 1991
                  AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN EARLY AM. ALTHO A REPEAT OF THE PAST 2
                  OR 3 MORNINGS..WL PROBABLY ISSUE SPS.                                    WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTS TO CSTL WRNG AND ADVSY. WILL DROP
                                                                                           GALES BACK TO SCA S OF CAPE LOOKOUT ... KEEPING GALE AND CSTL
                  MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING OF S/W TROF TO PASS             FLOOD WRNGS CAPE LOOKOUT N. ALSO HEAVY SURF ADVSY ALG OUTER
                  THRU NE US TNGT. MOST ENERGY PASSES N OF FCST AREA SO HAVE               BANKS TDA. MODELS CONTF TO POINT TO WNDS GRDLY BCMG MORE NE
                  KEPT POPS IN CHO CAT. ALTHO INCRSG MID/Hl CLDNS ... SOME SUN AND         AFT TDA AS LARGE SFC LO PRES MEADERS ARND OFFSHR OF MID-ATLC
                  MILD TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL TDA ONCE FOG THIS OUT. BASED ON CUR            RNG. ALTHO WNDS STILL BE RESPECTABLE ALG UPR CST TDA AND ON
                  TRENDS ... HAVE RESTRICTED ANY CHO SHWRS TDA TO JUST WRN ZNS.            INTO THU LOOKS AS THO THEY MAY DMSHG SOME AS THEY COME MORE
                  CHO TSTM THIS EVE MAY BE LTL HEIR W THAN INDCTC ON FPC BUT STILL         FROM OFF LAND. THIS DOES PRESENT A PRBLM WITH SOME SOUND SIDE
                  NOT VRY LKLY GIVEN ORIENTATION OF INSTBLTY AXIS AND DYNAMICS.            FLOODING ALG OUTER BANKS TNGT AND THU AND WILL MENTION THAT IN
                                                                                           OUTER BANKS FCST. OTRW BLOCKING PATN ALF WILL KEEP THINGS
                  IMPRESSIVE CAA MON BHND S/W TROF WITH INCRSG N TO NE FLOW.               MOVING ALG RATHER SLOWLY BUT BEGINNING TO SEE THE OMEGA
                  GRADIENT IN CAA PATTERN CUD SUPPORT GALES OVR MUCH OF MARINE             BLOCK WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLDS
                  AREA MON. HYBRID LO PRES SYSTEM SW OF BERMUDA BEARS                      CREEPING INTO W TNGT AND THU AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT
                  WATCHING-SPECLY FOR INCRSG SWELLS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS..BUT WL            FCST. GENTLY OTHER ASPECTS OF FCST LOOK OK AND WILL ONLY MAKE
                  PROBABLY REMAIN WELL S AND E OF AREA.                                    AN MINOR ADJUST CAPE LOOKOUT N
                                                                                           .NC  GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS HERE AND THERE.
                  HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS INDCTD BY LTST AVN RUN OUT              ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONE 1.
                  TO 72 HRS. THUS CANNOT REACH THE ONSET OF THE WARMER RETURN                 ... CSTL FLOOD WARNING S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
                  FLOW IN THE EFP.                                                            ... SCA S OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND ON ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
                                                                                           SOUNDS.
                  WRKZFP AVBL FOR YOUR REVIEWICOMMENTS.
                  .MA ... NONE. GALES MAY BE REQUIRED MON MAZBOI-502 AND OFFSHORE.         >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  .RI-NONE. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED MON FOR RIZ501.
                  .CT...NONE.
                    REFER TO NYCCWFNYC FOR MARINE ADVYS/WRNGS.

                                                                                     B-1

                           STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   DUCK AT 10FT. IN CSTL WTRS DSLN7 TO 16 FT FROM 14Z 8 FT        WHILE
                           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM, NO                                 130 E OF HAT BOUY UP FROM 16 TO 18 FT. MEANWHILE WHILE CFP
                           316 PM EST SUN OCT 27 1991                                                  PASSAGE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENED AND NE WNDS AT OREGON
                                                                                                       INLET..HAT INLET ... AND ON OCRACOKE INCAS FROM 15 KTS (21zO TO
                           TROPICAL STORM GRACE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH 986 MB OBN                 30-35 KTS. ALSO DOPPLER AT WBS SHOWED 45 IN BNDRY LAYER.
                           LAST RECON AND MAY RCH HFIGN STRNGTH..AND CONT MOVG NW                      SINCE SUNOPTIC PATTERN SO FAVORABLE FOR CSTAL FLOODING
                           UNTIL IT SHUD TURN MORE TO N. LONG PD SWELLS HAVE ALREADY                   OVER PROLONG PERIOD FELT LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WITHIN NEXT
                           LAPPED AT THE CSTLN AND HVY SWELLS WL CONT TO MOVE ASHORE                   12 HOURS TOO LIKELY TO LEAVE AS WATCH.
                           TNGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT. SO WL CONT HVY SURF ADV FOR
                           EN11RE CST ... SEAS ARE UP TO 13-15 FT AT 41001 BOUY 130 MI E OF            FEW CHNGS TO INLAND ZNS. FNT VCTY OF SE CST VERBAL OLDS
                           HAD AND 7-9 FT AT DIAMOND SHOALS. SITUATION WL GET EVN                      WITH IT.
                           WORSE MON INTO TUE AS STG HI PRES BLDS SE SM SEAN CAN. DRY
                           CDFNT WL PRECEDE THIS HI PRES SYSTM. EXPOT FNT TO MOVE INTO                 NC ... GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS AND ABEMARLE AND PAMLICO
                           NAN CSTL WATERS LATE MON AFTN OR EARLY EVE. SINCE THIS IS                   LOOKOUT
                           CLOSE ENUF TO THE 24 HR THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING GALES..PLAN                    ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 ASND 16
                           TO ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR csn WATER N OF CAPE LOOKOUT.                      ... SOUND FLOODING LIKELY,SOUTH END OF PAMLICO SOUND.
                           WNDS MAY ACTUALLY GO MORE NLY MOE NGT WHICH WL MAZIMIZE
                           SEAS ALG THE CST. WITH MORE THAN 10 FT SEAS CAN GET SOME                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                           PROPERTY DMG FM MAJOR EROSION AND/OR FLDG..SO PLAN TO
                           ISSUE CSTL FLD WATCH FOR OUTER BANKS ... ZN 2 FOR MON INTO                  STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
                           TUES. TIME OF Hl TIDE THERE IS JUST BFR NOON MON.                           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM,NC
                                                                                                       253 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991
                           OTRW NGM BNDRY MSTR SHOWS BAND OF HI RH ALG FNT LATE
                           MON/MOD NGT SPCLY IN NE. SO ... CAN ENVISION PILY-MOSTLY CLDY               SEAS CONT TO BLD ALG CST. WL CONIT GALE WFINGS N CST AND
                           SKIES FOR A WHILE MON NGT AND TUE..WITH STG COOL ADVCTN. WL                 UPGRADE TO MINIMAL GALE WRNGS CST. HURON HAS SLOWED TO
                           SAY WNDY E/BREEZY W AND COOLER TUE STATEWIDE.                               CRAWL AND SINCE STILL TO TIGHT GRADIENT NTWN STG HI BLDG IN
                                                                                                       AND THE HURON. WL ALSO ISSUE GALE WFINGS FOR SOUNDS WITH
                           SML CHC SHWRS NOT OUT OF QSTN IN MTNS AS PER GOING FOST                     25035 KTS MENTIONED. UPR LOIHURCAN MAY GET ADSORBED IN TROP
                           DUE TO TN PRECIP PSLY MOVG E..SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHG.                        EXITS CAN MARTIMES     THEN REORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPR
                                                                                                       AND SFC LO...PER NE MODEL RUNS. A GLANCE AT THE OXU ... UKMET
                           DO NOT EXPECT WNDS TO INCAS TO SCA CRITERIA TIL MON OVA                     SCENARIO FRO THURS EVE WOULD RAISE YOUR EYEBROWS1 ... WITH
                           SOUNDS SO WL NOT ISSUE SCA THERE. WL LV UP SCA CSTL WATERS                  DEEP LO ONCE AGAIN BTWN HAT AND BERMUDA. AGREE WITH NMC
                           AN DIMPLY GALES MON NGT.                                                    HEMISPHERIC DISCUSSION THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PROLONGED
                                                                                                       PD OF PSBL CSTL FLDG. SINCE HAVE NOT HAD DLDG PROBLEMS AS
                           .NG ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 16                                  YET ... WL NOT UPGRADE TO WANG ... BUT WK EXTEND GSTL FLD WATCH
                             ... GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE                       THU WED.
                           LOOKOUT
                             ... SCA CTSL WATERS FM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO LITTLE RIVER                  BAND OF LO OLDS ACRS NE 1/2 OF NO ASSOCD WITH CDFNT..WITH
                           INLET                                                                       RAIN REPORTED AT EGG PAS Hrl. MODELS GIVE CLR TO SOT FOR OLD
                             ... CSTL FLOOD WATCH MON INTO TUES OF VA BEACH TO CAPE                    GUID MOST AREAS TNGT SO THAT/S NOT BELIVERED. WL GO WITH
                           LOOKOUT                                                                     MSTLY OR PRLY CLDY MOST PLACES. ALSO        WINDY SPCLY IN E          THRU
                                                                                                       TUE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECD. BUT THEREIN LIES NEXT
                           >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>               PROBLEM. PPC TEMPS BLO FREEZG AT RDU ... GSO ... AVL TUR NGT.
                                                                                                       WITH WINDS AND LO LVL MSTR PERHAPS HANGING ARND ... WL OPT
                           STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   FOR HIER NGM TEMPS ... IN MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR NOW.
                           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
                           830 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991                                                  ALSO ... PLAN TO MENTION SHALLOW SOUNDSIDE FLOODING PSBL IN
                                                                                                       ZN 17 ON S SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND TNGT AND TUE ESPECIALLY AT
                           DISC: EVEN ANAL SHWS STAN HI E OF JMS BAY IN CAN LO PRES SE                 TIME OF HI TIDE.
                           OS NS AND OFF COURSE HUR GRACE W OF BERMUDA. ALL THREE OF
                           THESE SYS WL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OUR WX DURG THE NXT DAY                   NC ... GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS AND ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
                           OR TWO. FIRST HI PRES WL GV US CLR SKIES TNGT AND TMRW AS IT                SOUND
                           MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY EWD. THIS SYS COMB WITH LO SE WL LV                     ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 16
                           GALE WRNGS UP OVERNGT FOR CSTL WTRS AND KP WINDY IN OUR                      ... CSTL FLOOD WATCH THRU WED S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE
                           FCST. SEAS WL BLD AS WELL OVERNT AND SWELLS WITH EFFECT                     LOOKOUT.
                           CSTL AREAS. CUD SEE SOM BREACH EROSION AND SM POSS FLDG
                           AT TIMES OF HI TIDES MNLY ON TUE ARND NOON FOR SNDY HK AND N                GAF
                           SIDE OF MONTAUK. WL HV TO KP EYE ON THIS ANY MAY HV TO
                           FOLLOW UP WITH A STATEMENT BY MRNG..BUT WL LV THAT UP TO                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                           MANG FRSTR TO SEE HOW SNDS ARE BLOWING. RGT NOW ALL IS GD.
                                                                                                       STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
                           NO REAL CHNGS TO FOST OCKG ATTEN..WL KN MINOR ADJUSTMENT.                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
                           WL KP GALE WNGS OVA NJ GSTL..NY HRBR AND LI SOUND, ALSO                     930 AM EST MON OCT 28 1991
                           HEAVY SURF ADVY OVA ii csn AND ERN LI FOR TNGT THRU TUES.
                                                                                                       DISC: STG HI PRES OVA EN CAN WILL INTSFY GRDNT AND GIVE US
                           .NY ... SEAN GALE WANG FOR COASTAL WATERS ... LI SOUND      AND NY          STAG WINDS OVER FOST AREA THU TUES. HUR GRACE MVG NWD AND
                           HARBOR. NVY SURF ADVY FOR ERN LI.                                           THEN NEWD WILL REMAIN WEL OFFSHR        THIS WILL CMBN WITH THE HI
                           .NJ ... NAN ... GALE WANG FOR COASTAL WATERS AND HVY SURF ADVY              PRES OVER CAN WITH CONT STRONG WINDS.
                           FOR CST.
                                                                                                       HAVE GALE WARNINGS OVER NJ CSTL..NY HARBOR AND LI SOUND.
                           >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>               ALSO HEAVY SURF ADVY OVER NJ COASTAL AND SEAN FOR TONIGHT
                                                                                                       THAL) TUES.
                           STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE                                            NO ADJ FOR TEMPS.
                           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALIEGH/DURHAM, NO                                 NY ... SEAN ... GALE WANG FOR COASTAL WATERS ... LI SOUND ... AND NY
                           1035 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991                                                 HARBOR.HVY SURF ADVY FOR ERN LI.
                                                                                                       .NJ ... NAN GALE WANG FOR CSTAL WATERS AND HVY SURF ADVY FOR
                           CSTL FLD WANG WAS ISSUED BECAUSE WNDS/SEAS INCREASED                        CST.
                           SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVE. DUCK PIER WEST TO 12 FEET.
                           HISTORICALLY SOME OVERWASH HAS OCCURRED OUTER BANKS WITH                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                                                                                                 B-2

                   FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND                            ... CSTL FLOOD WATCH THRU WED S OF VA BEACH TO CAPE
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON, MA                                    LOOKOUT.
                   315 PM EST MON OCT 28 1992

                   GRACE ... SEE TCPATI AND TCDAT1.
                                                                                          STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
                   DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM EXPECTED TO AT LEAST AFFECT MA                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA
                   THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND HEAVY SURF AND MAYBE                245 AM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
                   RAIN WED-FRI. SEE PMDHMD/EPD.
                                                                                          GRACE..SEE TCPATI AND TCDAT1.
                   BASICALLY THE FIRST STG WIND SURGE W CAA APPEARS TO HAVE
                   OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING. CHH PEAK 53 MPH; FALMOUTH 52               GRACE IS EXPECTED TO BCM ABSORBED IN LOW TO N AS 5H LOW
                   MPH AND KALMUS 51 MPG. TIGHTEN UP AGAIN SOMETIME WED OR                CUTS OFF. BOTH LFM AND AVN MODELS SHOWS SFC SYSTEM
                   THUR. MODELS TAKE A PIECE OF GRACE A SPLIT IT NE LEAVING LOTS          ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING W THRU PD ENDING UP NEAR 38.ON. AND
                   OF TROP JUICE BEHIND TO INTERACT W UNUSUAL AND NEAD RECORD             65.OW AND THEN WNW AFTERWARDS. AVN IS CONSIDERABLY
                   UA ANOMALIES AND HFC DEVELOPING S OF BENCH MARK LATE TUE               STRONGER (17 MB) ON INTENSITY OF LOW SO LFM WIND
                   AND CARVING OUT A MAJOR OCEAN STORM SSE OF BENCHMARK. SO               FCST..ALREADY STG ... COULD BE UNDERDONE. 18Z WED HAD ACK AT
                   ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT MAY OCCUR MIDWEEK ... HEAVY SURF               04461
                   ADVYS HAVE EVEN BEE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AND WILL HOLD OF
                   ON SAME UNTIL MRPECS CAN GIVE US MAJOR BEACH EROSION PBLM              WITH THIS IN MIND HV DECIDED TO GO WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
                   WHICH IS POSSIBLE DURING MINOR LATE WK. WILL CONT AND ZFP              WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS MENTIONED BEFORE IN SPS. MRPECS
                   MENTION OF BEACH EROSION.                                              LOOKS LIKE A PUZZLE TO BE CONSIDERABLE WIND DIRECTION. MORE
                                                                                          ONSHORE AT BOS THEN AT SFD YET SFD GREATER STORM SURGE?7?
                   EFPMA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR POTENTIAL RAIN/HIGH WIND BASED             THANKS TO NYC FOR CO-ORD ON THIS ONE.
                   ON ECMWF/UKMET EVEN FURTHER W THAN MRF AND STM CENTER 12
                   TO 18MB DEEPER THAN MRF. SINCE SO MUCH COLD AIR DRIVING SW             LOOKS LIKE ERN MA WL GET CHO FOR RAIN LATE WED AS LOW
                   INTO THE SYSTEM ACRE E NEW ENG NEXT 24 HRS...MAJOR OCEAN               APCHS.
                   STORM APPEARS LIKELY AS THE COLD AIR MIXES W WARM TROP
                   WTERS AND LEFTOVERS FROM FRACE. IT CONCEIVABLE 60KT WINDS              MA ... GLW ... CFA2..3..7,.8
                   MAY B N OF THE ENTER OF THE NEXT 4/5 DAYS.                             RI ... GLW.
                                                                                          .CT ... NONE.
                   BLV LK EFFECT S14WRS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY TUE AM CAPE               REFER TO NYCCWFNYC FOR MARINE ADVYS/WRNGS.
                   CODE AS- 5 IN NFIN MARINE ROLLES OVER THE +12 h20 OFFERING 17
                   SPREAD EARLY TUE. 7H/SH/BL FLOW SIMILAR WHICH IS FVBL FOR              >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@.>>>>>>>>>>>N>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                   SUSTAINING SHWR COLUMNS THO INVERSION WILL CAP POTENTIAL.
                   HAVE ADDED OLDS TO CAPE AND SE MA THIS THINKING IN MIND.               FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHER NEW ENGLAND
                   ALREADY FPC GUIDANCE WAY TOO COLD AT ORH INCLUDING TO DRY.             NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA
                                                                                          1015 AM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
                   FPO GUIDANCE RAISED CONSIDERABLY HIGHER ALL STNS NEXT 4
                   PRDS. BL OF 35 OVER HTO OF 54 GIVE LOW OF 45 ON CAPE.                  DANGEROUS OCEAN STOWN..PROBABLY ONE OF THE WORST SINCE
                   THEREFORE GUIDANCE ADJUSTED.                                           THE BLIZZARD OF 78 ... IS HEADING SW PER PPP FALLS TO THE SW OF
                                                                                          THE CENTER AND RISES TO THE N AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR
                   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>          IMAGERYI COORD NMC ON MARINE.

                   STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                              ALREADY 3 DOZEN BOATS BEACHED OR SUNK AT NAUSET BEACH.
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM, NO                            BEACH EROSION SIGNIFICANT CHH/NAUSET. SHIP REPORT AT 41/59 OF
                   253 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991                                             63 FOOT SEAS WHICH IS PROBABLY HIGH BUT A SIGN OF THE
                                                                                          PROBLEMS UPCOMING. THAT SAME VESSEL REPORTS SEAS OF 33
                   SEAS CONT TO BLD ALG CST. WL CONT GALE WRNGS N CST AND                 FEET. AVN MODEL SUPPORTS STORM CENTER TO NR GEORGE BANK
                   UP\GRADE TO MINIMAL GALE WRNGS S CST. HURON HAS SLOWED TO              12Z THU ... IF THIS OCCURS ... MAJOR PBLMS COASTAL CAPE GOD BOTH
                   CRAWL AND SINCE STILL TO THE SE OF HAT ... PROLONGED PD OF             IN AND OUTSIDE. 65 KT SFC WIND YSA AT 13Z.
                   SWELLS MOVG ASHORE EXPECTED..AS WLL AS TIGHT GRADIENT
                   BTWN STG HI BLDG IN AND THE HURON. WL ALSO ISSUE GALE WRNGS            HEAVY SURF ADVY BEING ISSUED NOW FOR SWELL DESPITE
                   FOR SOUND WITH 25-35 KTS MENTIONED. UPR LO/HURCAN MAY GET              TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WIND FIELD. CFA CONTINUED FOR E COAST
                   ABSORBED IN TROF EXITS CAN MARTIMES ... THEN REORGANIZE INTO           CAPE COD. HIGH WIND WATCH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR CAPE
                   ANOTHER DEEP UPR AND SFC LO     PER NEW MODEL ROUNDS. A                COD WED BUT PRIMARILY USED IN MTN AREAS AND ALREADY
                   GLANCE AT THE OXU    UKMET SCENIONATIO FOR THUS EVE WOULD              STRONGLY WORDED IN CWFBOS W MAIN THRUST HIGH WIND WED
                   RAISE YOUR EYEBROWSI ... WITH DEEP LO ONCE AGAIN BTWN HAT AND          NITE/THU AM.
                   BERMUDA. AGREE WITH NMG HEMISPHERIC DISCUSSION THAT
                   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PROLONGED PD OF PSBL CSTL FLDG. SINCE             CONSULT W STAMFORD CODE AND SURGE SO FAR THIS SYSTEM HAS
                   HAVE NOT HAD FLDG PROBLEMS AS YET..WL NOT UPGRADE TO                   BEEN HALF OF MRPECS PREDICTION SO NO OFA WED BUT PRIMARILY
                   WRNG. BUT WL EXTEND CSTL FLD WATCH THRU WED.                           USED IN MTN AREAS AND ALREADY STRONGLY WORDED IN CWFBOS
                                                                                          W MAIN THRUST HIGH WIND WED NITE/THU AM.
                   BAND OF LO OLDS ACRS BE 112 OF NO ASSOOD WITH CDFNT..WITH
                   RAIN REPORTED AT ECG PAST HR. MODELS GIVE CLR TO SOT FOR               YDY PEAK WIND WAS 48KT AND CHH. IPW ETM AT CHH. MWN WIND
                   OLD GUID MOST AREAS TNGT SO THAT/S NOT BELIEVED. WL GO WITH            HAS TURNED NE AND CLDS/SHWRS W 8H AIR SEA WATER DIFF ON
                   MSTLY OF PTLY CLDY MOPT PLACES. ALSO      WINDY SPCLY IN               NFINLY 22 DEGS MEANS HEAVY SHWRS OF SLEET AND RAIN SHUD
                   E ... THRU TUE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED. BUT THEREIN LIES           START BEING BLOWN WWD SOMETIME SOON.
                   NEXT PROBLEM. FPC TEMPS BLO FREEZG AT RDU..GSO..AVL TUR NGT.
                   WITH WINDS AND LO LVL MSTR PERHAPS HANDING ARND ... WL OPT             GRACE ... SEE TOPAT1 AND TCDAT1.
                   FOR HEIR NGM TEMPS ... IN MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR LOW.
                                                                                          LFM 1 HR LATE..ALREADY FASTER W RAIN TO SW HEADING OFR NEW
                   ALSO ... PLAN TO MENTION SHALLOW SOUNDSIDE FLOODING PSBL IN            ENG. RW--AT CHH AT 151OZ. NGM STARTED LATE TOO. ONLY 4 @
                   ZN 17 ON S SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND TNGT AND TUE ESPCLY AT TIME           CANADIAN UA STNS IN MODEL MAY AFFECT MODEL POSITS A BIT.
                   OF HI TIDE.
                                                                                          RELYING HEAVILY ON LAST NIGHTS AVN MODEL.
                   .NC  GALE WARNINGS CSTL WATERS AND ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
                   SOUNDS                                                                 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>:@>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                     ... HVY SURF ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 16                           B-3

                       FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW EN   GLAND
                       NATIONAL WERATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA
                       140 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991

                       OCEAN STORM SHOULD BE WEAKING AND FOLLOWING NGM TRENDS
                       PER OCCLUSION. CHH MAY BE SEEING CENTER OF STORM ON RADAR.
                       HEAVY STORM DAMAGE AS WE ARE MOVING THRU HI TIDE COASTAL
                       FLOODING NOW. BELIEVED THE WORST OF TIDAL FLOODING NOW
                       WILL CONTINUE CFW THRU THUS AS PREV BUT WORD THAT WORST
                       MAY HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTN. CT COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
                       UNKNOWN ATTEN BUT TIDES THIS AM WERE 2-3 FT ABV NORMAL AND
                       EXPECT TO RUN 3-4 FT ABV NORMAL AT 11ME OF HI TIDE THIS AFTN:
                       MAYBE THIS TIDAL FLOODING PBLM CAN BE TERMINATED ON THE 4
                       AM THURSDAY PKG. WEAKENING SFC PPP MAY ALLOW SLOWLY
                       LOWERING SURGE W HUGE SWELL EVER SO SLOWLY DAMPENING
                       OUT NEXT 72 HRS.

                       HEAVY RAIN BANDS PROBABLE AND ASSTD STREET FLOODING DUE
                       TO LEAF CLOGGED DRAINS. SWISS IMAGERY SHWG STORM MOTION
                       1016 SINCE 12Z .... WHEN WILL IT LOOP S? WIL THERE B A 50 KT LOW
                       LVL WIND FIELD 200 MI OUT FM CENTER EVEN TOMORROW DESPITE
                       THE WKNG OCCLUDED CENTER.

                       HAVE SEEN SVRL 80KT SHIP REPORTS W WAVES OF 50 TO 71 Fr.

                       HWW PROBABLY MAY BE TERMINATED IN PART ON THE 9 PM
                       PKG ... WORST IS OR SHUD HAVE OCCURRED BY OOZ/31 PER FD (1,2,3)
                       FAI 3 K WINDS AT GO$/ACK.

                       FOR THE RECORD HAD 3 REPORTS OF SLEET
                       TDY ... WOBURN...NEWTON CTR AND OSTERVILLE (EVAP COOLING PER
                       NGM T3/T5 PREDICTORS)

                       GRASS FIRES ETC REPORTED IN SOME AREAS WHERE IT WAS
                       PARCHED TDY W STG WIND. (BURNING LEAVES?)

                       1815Z SCATTERED REPORT PWR OUT AND TREES DOWN RI/E MA.
                       FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING BRANT PT.

                       . MA ... HWW MAZO01>004-007>009 FOR THIS EVE. ENTIRE CST THRU
                       STORM ALL CWF.
                       .RI ... STORM RlZ501. CFW ENTIRE CST THRU THUS. HWW ALL Ri.
                       CT ... CFW ENTIRE CT CST FOR THRU THU.
                         REFER TO NYCCWFNYC FOR MARINE ADVYS/WRNGS.
                       DRAG

                                                                              B-4

                       APPENDIX C - SELECTED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS

                   HIGH SEAS FORECASTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,                      TURN SW AFTER 12 HRS. WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS AND SEAS 14 TO 22 FT
                   WASHINGTON, DC                                                     WITHIN 550 NM W QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS
                   2200 UTC SUN OCT 27 1991                                           SEAS 10 TO 18 FT WITHIN 900 NM OF CENTER. FORECAST STORM
                                                                                      59N 36W 998 MN. FORECAST WINDS 40 TO 55KTS AND SEAS TO 30 FT
                   NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH 32N TO 65N WEST OF 35W                        WITHIN 450 NM W QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 30 TO 45 KTS
                   FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 29 1991                            SEAS 12 TO 20 FT WITHIN 600 NMOF CENTER.

                   WARNINGS.                                                          GALE 48N 29W 999 MB AT 0600 UTC MOVING E 25 KTS. WINDS 25 TO
                                                                                      30 KTS AND SEAS 11 TO 17 FT WITHIN 500 NM OVER THE SW
                   SEE S OF 32N FOR HURRICANE GRACE 31.5N 67.8W AT 2200 UTC.          SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST GALE AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

                   DEVELOPING STORM 45N 73W 1013 MB AT 1800 UTC MOVING E 25           SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
                   KTS WILL TURN ESE 20 KTS AFTER 18 HRS. BY 1200 UTC OCT 28
                   WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO        EXPECT AS NOTED IN WARNING SECTION WINDS INCREASING TO 20
                   16 FT WITHIN 400 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST STORM         TO 30 KTS SEAS 8 TO 15 FT N OF 35N W OF 48W.
                   42N 55W 999 MB. EXCEPT AS MENTIONED IN WARNINGS SECTION
                   FOR AREA S OF 32N FORECAST WINDS 40 TO 55 KTS AND SEAS 14          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                   TO 24 FT W OF A LINE FROM 46N 5OW TO 40N 60W. ELSEWHERE
                   FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 650        HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON,
                   NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE.                                         DC
                                                                                      1000 UTC TUE OCT 29 1991
                   GALE 5ON 38W 996 MB AT 1800 UTC MOVING E 25 KTS THEN TURNING       NORTH ATLANTIC NOTHER OF 32N TO 65N WEST OF 35W
                   NE OVER THE NEXT 18 HRS. WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS 12 TO IS      FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 30 1991
                   FT WITHIN 550 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST GALE E OF
                   AREA. FORECAST WINDS DESCRIBED WITH DEVELOPING STORM               WARNINGS. CORRECTED CURRENT POSITION OF HURRICANE GRACE
                   MENTIONED ABOVE.
                                                                                      SEE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECASTS S OF 32N FOR CURRENT
                   SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.                                             CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE GRANCE 31.6N 64.2W AT 1000 UTC.
                                                                                      FORECAST EXTRATROPICAL CENTER 38.5N 57.5W AND MERGING
                   HIGH 38N 47W 1026 MB AT 1800 UTC MOCING ESE 15 KTS WITH A          WITH DANGEROUS STORM DISCUSSED NEXT PARAGRAPH.
                   RIDGE EXTENDING WNW THRU 41 N SOW AND ANOTHER ESE THRU             DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE DESCRIBED
                   33N 35W. FORECAST HIGH 36N 36W 1024 MN.                            IN RELATION TO THIS DANGEROUS STORM.

                   DAS                                                                DANGEROUS STORM 42N 55W 994 MB AT 0600 UTC MOVING E 15 KTS
                                                                                      WIL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THEN DRIFT SW AND MERGE
                   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>        WITH REMAINS OF HURRICANE GRACE. CURRENT WINDS 55 TO 70
                                                                                      KTS SEAS 17 TO 27 FT WITHIN 250 NM N SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE
                   HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON,            WITHIN 700 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KTS SEAS 14 TO 24
                   DC                                                                 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 1000 NM W QUADRANT AND STORM 39N
                   1000 UTC MON OCT 28,1991                                           56W 981 MB. FORECAST WINDS So TO 70 KTS SEAS 25 TO 35 FT
                   NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 32N TO 65N WEST OF 35W                     WITHIN 400 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS AND SEAS 15
                   .FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 29 1991                           TO 25 FT.

                   HURRICANE GRACE 32.5N 68.9W AT 1000 UTC MOVING NW 8 KTS BUT        STORM 6ON 39 W 989 MB AT 0600 UTC WILL MOVE SE KTS. WITHIN
                   WILL TURN NE AND ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS               500 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KTS SEAS 20 TO 30 FT.
                   65.KTS GUSTS TO 80 KTS. RADIUS OF 50 KTS WINDS 125 NM E            ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600 NM OF CENTER WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS SEAS
                   SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE. RADIUS OF 34 KT WINDS           13 TO 23 FT. FORECAST STORM 57N 32W 992 MB. FORECAST WINDS
                   AND SEAS 12 FT OF HIGHER 350 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 200 NM S          35 TO 50 KTS SEAS 18 TO 28 FT WITHIN 400 NM OF CENTER.
                   SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST HURRICANE 35.ON 65.5W. FORECAST
                   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KTS GUSTS TO 80 KTS. RADIUS OF          SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
                   34 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 12 FT OR HIGHER 350 NM N SEMICIRCLE
                   AND 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEE DEVELOPING STORM BELOW FOR            EXCEPT WHERE MENTIONED IN WARNINGS ABOVE WINDS 20 TO 30
                   FORECAST OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE W AND N OF                KITS SEAS 10 TO 18 FT N OF 43 N.
                   HURRICANE.
                                                                                      EXCEPT WHERE MENTIONED IN WARNING ABOVE WINDS 20 TO 30
                   DEVELOPING DANGEROUS STORM 46N 63W 1013 MB AT 0600 UTC             KTS SEAS TO IS FT W OF 50W.
                   MOVING E 35 KTS WILL TURN SE AND SLOW BY 12 HRS. BY 1800 UTC
                   OCT 28 WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO       >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                   10 TO 17 FT WITHIN 450 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST
                   DANGEROUS STORM 41 N 54W 990 MR. FORECAST WINDS 50 TO 65
                   KTS AND SEAS 22 TO 32 FT WITHIN 400 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
                   ELSEWHERE WITHIN 900 NM W QUADRANT AND 200 NM SE
                   SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.

                   STORM 62N 32W 980 MT AT 0600 UTC WILL MOVING W 10 KTS WILL

                                                                                 C-1

                    HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                        WINDS ... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982- MB.
                    WASHINGTON,DC
                    1600 UTC WED OCT 30 1991                                           AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WIL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
                    FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI NOV 01 1991                            HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
                                                                                       COMPLETE ADVISORY AT NOON AST..l 1 AM EST.
                    WARNINGS
                    DANGEROUS STORM 40N 64W 972 MB AT 1200 UTC MOVING W 10             LAWRENCE
                    KTS TURNING SW. WINDS 55 TO 70 KTS AND SEAS 35 TO 50 FT
                    WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND W QUADRANT. ALSO... WINDS 40        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                    TO 50 KTS SEAS 25 TO 40 FT WITHIN 450 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND
                    600 NM NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS AND SEAS          TROPICAL STORM GRACE-ADVISORY NUMBER 10
                    15 TO 30 FT WITHIN 750 NM OF CENTER. FORECAST STORM 37N 70W        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
                    988 MB. FORECAST WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS AND SEAS 20 TO 35 FT           6 PM AST TUE OCT 29 1991
                    WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 25
                    TO 40 KTS AND SEAS 16 TO 25 FT WITHIN 600 NM OF CENTER             SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GRACE HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY A
                    EXCEPT WITHIN 750 NM OVER NE QUADRANT.                             COLD FRONT AND IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

                    AREA OF WINDS 35 TO 50 KTS; AND SEAS 18 TO 30 FT N OF 45N OF       AT 6 PM AST..22OOZ_.THE CENTER OF GRACE WAS'LOCATED NEAR
                    45W. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 35 KITS AND SEAS IS TO 22 FT N OF       LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH..LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OF ABOUT 460
                    40N AND E OF 50 W. FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KTS AND AREAS 12        MILES ... 740 KM..EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
                    TO 16 FT N OF 58N AND W OF GREENLAND WITH MODERATE
                    SUPERSTRUCTURE ICING.                                              GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAT 40 MPH ... 65
                                                                                       KMtHR..AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
                    SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
                                                                                       MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH ... 110 KM/HR..AND
                    HIGH SON 65W 1043 MB AT 1200 UTC MOVING ESE 15 KTS. FORECAST       WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
                    HIGH 49N 51 W 1033 MB.
                                                                                       TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
                    EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED ABOVE WINDS TO 25 KTS AND SEAS TO           MILES ... 370 KM.
                    14 FT W OF 45W N OF 32N.
                                                                                       REPEATING THE 6 PM AS POSITION..34.ON... 57.OW.
                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>        MOVEMENT..NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
                                                                                       WINDS ... 70 MPH.
                    HURRICANE GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER
                    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                  THE REMNANTS OF GRACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A
                    6 AM AST MON OCT 281991                                            DEVELOPING MAJOR STORM OFF THE U.S. EAST FRONT LAST
                                                                                       TONIGHT. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL
                    TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA,              REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL BE CARRIED IN THE HIGH SEAS
                                                                                       FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER
                    STEERING CURRENT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP GRACE WELL OFF               IN WASHINGTON.
                    THE U.S. EAST COAST. HOWEVER..THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
                    FORECAST TRACK AND ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND             THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
                    NORTHERN U.S. ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE                    HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
                    PROGRESS OF GRACE.
                                                                                       PASCH.
                    AT 6 AM AST .. I OOOOZ ... THE CENTER OF GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR
                    LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH ... LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 235           >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                    MILES ... 380 KM ... WEST OF BERMUDA.
                                                                                       SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
                    GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ... 15             NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND ME
                    KWHR..AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS                 430 AM EDT WED OCT 30 1991
                    EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
                                                                                       ... MARINE STORM WARNINGS AND LARGE SURF FOR COASTAL
                    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH ... 120 KN/HR..AND         SECTIONS TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
                    LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY.
                                                                                       A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE OCEAN TOWN CENTERED 600 MILES
                    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35                  SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
                    MILES..55KN FROM THE CENTER..AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE              NORTHWEST. WINDS AND EAVE ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN
                    WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES..650 KM TO THE NORTH          INCREASING OVERNIGHT. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING FREQUENT
                    OF THE CENTER AND UP TO 225 MILES..360 KM..TO THE SOUTH OF         WINDS GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS WERE BEING REPORTED ALONG
                    THE CENTER.                                                        THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTS AS WELL AS SWELLS OF
                                                                                       10 FEET. DURING THE DAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
                    THE LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE                 CLOSER TO LAND, WIND WILL INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
                    CENTER IS PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE             GUSTS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 TO 20
                    U.S. EAST COASTAL FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD.                FEET. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.
                    CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
                    SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.                DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE OCEAN. LARGE WAVES
                                                                                       CAN BE DEADLY. COASTAL RESIDENTS AND THOSE VISITING THE
                    T14E MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE           SHORE TODAY SHOULD NOT VENTURE TOO CLOSE TO THE WAVES.
                    AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MR ... 29.00 INCHES.
                                                                                       FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY.
                    REPEATING THE 6 AM AST POSITION ... 32.5 N ... 68.9W.
                    MOVEMENT ... NORTHWESTWARD NEAT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED           >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                                                                               C-2

                  BULLETIN                                                               ITEMS THAT CAN BE DAMAGED BY WATER-SUCH AS AUTOMOBILES
                  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE                    AND MAY ELECTRICAL ITEMS-SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE AREA
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND, ME                                  WELL BEYOND THE WATERIS REACH.
                  530 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991
                                                                                         BOAT AND FLOATING DOCK MOORINGS SHOULD BE CHECKED TO
                  -COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE                     INSURE THERE IS ADEQUATE MOVEMENT FOR THE HIGH WATER.
                  COASTAL OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR TONIGHT.
                                                                                         THE UNUSUALLY HIGH WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO FLOT DEBRIS OFF
                  THE TIDE AT PORTLAND HARBOR PEAKED AT 13.2 FEET AT 445 PM.             THE SHORE LIKE SUCH AS TREES AND WOOD-WHICH WILL THEN
                  THIS TIDE WAD 3.4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL-MAKING IT THE 7TH                  BECOME A HAZARD TO NAVIGATION IN THE RIVE, AND CAUSE
                  HIGHEST STORM SURGE IN PORTLAND HARBOR SINCE RECORD                    DAMAGE TO BOATS.
                  BEGAN IN 1914. THE TIDE WILL FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
                  EVENING HOURS. ANTHER HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 516                      THE UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES ARE CAUSED BY A STORM IN THE
                  THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STORM REMAINING                             ATLANTIC. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT..SO
                  OFFSHORE ... MORE PROBLEMS WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ARE                 THAT THE HIGH TIDE TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE LOWER
                  LIKELY.                                                                THAN TONIGHT.
                                                                                         KILPATRICK
                  A WEATHER SPOTTER AT HIGGINS BEACH IN SCARBOROUGH                      >>>>>>>>;.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  REPORTED WATER BREAKING ONTO THE ROAD. THE ROAD TO THE
                  BEACH HAS BEEN CLOSED.                                                 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
                                                                                         BOSTON,MA
                  THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY A LARGE                  420PM EST SUN OCT 27 1991
                  AND DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
                  SOUTHEAST OF NATUCKET. WINDS AT THE PORTLAND LARGE                     ... A BEACH EROSION EPISODE MAY BE SETTING UP FOR LATE
                  NAVIGATIONAL BUOY WERE GUSTING TO 47 MPH WITH 18 FOOT AT 4             MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
                  PM.
                                                                                         A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW
                  HEAVY SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS ALONG THE                     ENGLAND TONIGHT-USHERING IS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND
                  COASTAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DO NOT VENTURE NEAT                ALLOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER
                  THE WATER TO WALK OF THE ROCK..YOU COULD BE SWEPT AWAY.                NEW ENGLAND.

                  ALL OCEAN FRONTS AND BOATING INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP UP TO               EARLIER TODAY A LARGE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
                  DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY                SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA BEGAN TO TAKE ON TROPICAL
                  THE NATIONAL SERVICE.                                                  CHARASTERICS-AND HAS NOW BEEN CATEGORIZED AS TROPICAL
                                                                                         STORM GRACE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK
                  ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 PM TONIGHT.                      NORTHWARD BEFORE CURING NORTHEAST OF MONDAY ... AND WILL
                  VALUER                                                                 SET UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
                                                                                         NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.

                                                                                         AS A RESULT ... AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
                  FLOOD WARNING                                                          THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                     HIGH SURF AND LARGE BREAKERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
                  100 PM EDT THU OCT 31 1991                                             MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY..WITH SOME BEACH
                                                                                         EROSION POSSIBLE.
                  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
                  FOR THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN THE BEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE                  IF THE PRESSURE FIELD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
                  AND THE TROY DAM.                                                      DEVELOPS ANY STRONGER..A COSTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
                                                                                         REQUIRED ... BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL.
                  SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING OF LOWLANDS ALONG THE RIVER IS LIKELY             STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
                  AT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TIME OF HIGH              FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION.
                  TIDE SHOULD BE AROUND 6PM AT BEAR MTN BRIDGE.AROUND 730                RW
                  PM AT POUGHKEEPSIE...
                  AROUND 830 PM AT KINGSTONAOPM AT CATSKILL ... AND JUST                 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

                  THE HIGH TIDE AT ALBANY WAS JUST UNDER 6.6 FT JUST BEFORE
                  NOON. IT WAS A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

                  WHILE THE TIDE BEGAN TO EBB AT ALBANY EARLY THIS
                  AFTERNOONAT'S NOT LIKELY TO DROP VERY MUCH. ALSO..THIS
                  EVENING'S TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE
                  NOONTIME TIDE BETWEEN SAUGERTIES AND TROY DAM. SOUTH OF
                  SAUGERTIES THE EVENING TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE A FEW INCHES TO
                  A FOOT HIGHER-AND THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF
                  LOWLANDS ALONG THE HUDON AND ITS INLETS EARLIER TODAY.

                  IN THE ALBANY'AREA..THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE
                  CLOSE TO 8 FT ... WHICH WOULD PUT WATER INTO PARTS OF THE
                  CORNING PRESERVE.

                  A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EITHER
                  OCCURRING ... OR LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE.

                                                                                C-3

                      COASTAL FLOOD WATCH                                                    SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE PREPARED
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA                                     TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED.
                      315 AM TUE OCT 29 1991                                                 DRAG

                      -COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH                 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                      AND EXACT FACING COASTAL AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS-
                                                                                             COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                      THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF                NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON, MA
                      NEW ENGLAND AND HURRICANE GRACE NEAR BERMUDA HAS SET                   430 PM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
                      UP NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
                      EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO IS FT                ... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
                      AND TIDES ARE ALREADY RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.                     VIRTUALLY OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
                                                                                             WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY..
                      BY WEDNESDAY GRACE WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN ANOTHER LOW
                      SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARTIMES. THE NEW LOW CENTER WILL                FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR NORTH AND
                      BE CLOSE ENOUGH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST                     EAST FACING COASTAL AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS
                      COASTAL TO CAUSE STORM FORCE WINDS OF THE NORTHEAST.                   NARRAGANSETT BAY.. BLOCK ISLAND AND THE SOUTH COASTAL OF
                      THESE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH TIDE DURING THE LAST               CONNECTICUT.
                      AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE THE
                      POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION, STRONG WAVES              THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF HIGH TIDES
                      PRODUCED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY                       FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND CHATHAM MA.
                      PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY/
                                                                                             DATE     TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (EST) HEIGHT (FEET) FLOODING BEGINS
                      NORTH AND EAST FACING COASTAL SECTIONS WILL EXPERIENCE                   BOSTON HARBORICHATHAN ABOVE MLLW ABOVE MLLW (MET)
                      THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG WINDS. MOST VULNERABLE                       WED OCT 30 417 AW449 AM  9.3ffi.S 13.6/9.1
                      LOCALES APPEAR TO BE FROM CHATHAM NORTHWARD ON THE                       433 PM1505 PM 10.217.1 13.619. 1
                      CAPE COD COAST.                                                        THU OCT 31 521 AM1553 I'M 9.4/6.6 13.6/9.1
                                                                                               W PM612 I'M  I0.0f7.0  13.619.1
                                                                                             FRI NOV 01 824 AWSSS AM 9.716.8 13.6/9.1
                      REMEMBER..A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
                      ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL                 THESE VALUES DO NOT TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE AFFECTS OF
                      OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IN              STORMS SURGES AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
                      CASE WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY. THIS SITUATION IS BEING
                      MONITORED CLOSELY. KEEP TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO ... TV ... OR             THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLOODING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
                      NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.                            HIGH TIDE OCCURRENCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
                      GIRODO                                                                 THURSDAY MORNING.

                      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>            SEAS OF 25 TO 45 FEET HAVE OCCURRED TODAY FROM GEORGE
                                                                                             BANK EAT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM
                      COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS                                               ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH SEAS IS MOVING SOUTHWEST-CLOSER TO
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA                                     NEW ENGLAND. THIS STORM MAY PARK ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF
                      200 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991                                             NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PROLONGING BEACH
                                                                                             EROSION DAMAGE AND COASTAL FLOOD THREATS.
                      ... MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
                      MANY EAST FACING MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL LOCATIONS...                    THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN MASSACHUSETTS ARE THREATENED
                                                                                             WITH COASTAL FLOODING-THE REGION FROM CHATHAM TO
                      UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF 2 HOUSES COLLAPSING HAVE BEEN                   PROVINCETOWN-PLUM ISLAND-REVERE BEACH..THE NHANT LYNN
                      RECEIVED FROM THE GLOUCESTER AREA. THE NAHANT CAUSEWAY                 CAUSEWAY.. THE REGION FROM HULL TO PLYMOUTH INCLUDING
                      HAS BEEN CLOSED.                                                       SCITUTAE AS WELL AS BRANT POINT ON NANTUCKET ISLAND. MANY
                                                                                             OF THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCE DAMAGE FROM
                      AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WATER SHOULD BE AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE             HEAVY SURF. ALREADY SEVERAL DOZEN BOATS HAVE BEEN
                      NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAMAGE TO EXPOSED EAST                     BEACHED OR SUNK NEAR NAUSET BEACH ON CAPE COD AND
                      FACING LOCATIONS. TIDAL RIVERS FACING INTO THE NORTHEAST               NANTUCKET ISLAND.
                      WIND WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO MAJOR FLOODING.
                                                                                             COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE ON THE WEST
                      OTHER MASSACHUSETTS LOCATIONS UNDER THE GUN FOR                        SIDE OF NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND AS
                      SERIOUS FLOODING ARE THE FOLLOWING ... THE REGION FROM                 WELL AS NEAR STAMFORD CONNECTICUT.
                      CHATHAM TO PROVINCETOWN.PLUM ISLAND ... REVERE BEACH ... THE
                      NAHANT LYNN CAUSEWAY ... THE REGION FROM QUINCY TO                     TODAY'S SURGE WAS ABOUT ONE AND ONE HELD FEET ABOVE THE
                      PLYMOUTH AND ESPECIALLY HULL AND SITUATE AS WELL AS 913ANT             NORMAL TIDE. INCREASING WIND TOMORROW AND CLOSER
                      POINT ON NANTUCKET ISLAND. SOME ROADS NEAR THE COASTAL                 PROXIMITY OF T14E STORM SHOULD MAKE THE SURGE BETWEEN 2
                      WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE.                                                AND 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL RAISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
                                                                                             FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE,
                      FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND WILL BECOME MORE
                      SERVE AS TIDES RISE TOWARD THEIR MAXIMUM BETWEEN 330 AND               BEACH EROSION..FROM THE HEAVY SURG WILL BE COMMON ALONG
                      630 PM.                                                                MANY EAST FACING COASTAL POINTS OF MASSACHUSETTS WITH
                                                                                             THE WORST EXPECTED ON THE LOWER AND OUTER CAPE.
                      THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE VULNERABLE COASTAL
                      LOCATIONS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS STATEMENT AND                      PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL LOCATIONS
                      POSSIBLY WILL BE THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING FOR EAST                   SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE PREPARED
                      FACING MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL POINTS SINCE THE BLIZZARD OF              TO EVALUATE IF REQUESTED.
                      78.

                      PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL LOCATIONS

                                                                                        C-4

                   COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                   SHOULD STAY TUNED TO RADIO..TV ... OR NOR WEATHER RADIO FOR
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA                                        FURTHER STATEMENTS. THE NEXT STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
                   650 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991                                                SOON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
                                                                                             CARBONE
                   ...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ALONG MANY EAST FACING
                   MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING               >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                   REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.
                                                                                             COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                   THE GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS DECLARED A STATE OF                         NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HARTFORD CT
                   EMERGENCY EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR THE NINE COASTAL COUNTIES              306 AM EST THU OCT 31 1991
                   OF MASSACHUSETTS.
                                                                                              A COSTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE SHORELINE OF
                   COASTAL FLOODING ... IN SOME LOCATIONS AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THE           CONNECTICUT...
                   78 BLIZZARD ... HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND ROAD
                   CLOSING. MUCH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FROM THE                    STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN 3 TO 4
                   MERRIMACK RIVER TO CHATHAM AS WELL AS THE ISLAND HAVE BEEN                FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COASTLINE OF CONNECTICUT.
                   HARD HIT WITH MANY SHORE ROAD INUNDATED AND BOATS DESTROYED.              ROADWAYS THAT BECAME FLOODED ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
                   THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF HOUSES BEING SWEPT AWAY IN                     BECOME FLOODED AGAIN TODAY. THE FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITHIN 1
                   GLOUCESTER ... SWAMPSCOTT..AND NAUSET BEACH ON CAPE COD.                  HOUR ... EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.
                   FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED HALF WAY INTO DOWNTOWN
                   NANTUCKET BY. THE NANTUCKET NEWS.                                         HERE ARE THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
                                                                                             COASTLINE.
                   WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS HIGH AS 78 MPH AT THE
                   WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CHATHAM. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS                NEW LONDON BRIDGEPORT STAMFORD CT
                   OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO                343 AM     527 AM     630 AM
                   DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS.                                                   407 PM     554 PM     602 PM

                   FLOOD WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIME TILL GRADUALLY                THE POWERFUL STORM PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH
                   SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE EARLY                   TIDES ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE WILL
                   THURSDAY MORNING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH-SIGNIFICANT COASTAL             LAST ONE MORE DAY. THE STORM AT 300 AM WAS LOCATED 150 MILES
                   FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY.                                                 SOUTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. IT WAS TRACKING SOUTHWEST.

                   PEOPLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT TRAVEL UNLESS                      PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS SUBJECT TO COASTAL FLOODING DURING
                   ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DO NOT HEAD BACK INTO AREAS JUST                    ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL EXPERIENCE MORE FLOODING TODAY. TAKE
                   FLOODED BY THIS STORM TIDE DUE TO RECOVER EFFORTS AND THE                 NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREVENT ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ASSOCIATED
                   RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING NEAR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE DURING THE            WITH HIGH WATER. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
                   EARLY MORNING HOURS.                                                      FLOODED ROADWAYS.
                   THOMPSON                                                                  SEKELSKY

                   COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR RHODE ISLAND                                  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDENCE RI                                    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BRIDGEPORT CT
                   735 AM EDT WED OCT 30 1991                                                730 AM EST THRU OCT 31 1991

                   ... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RHODE ISLAND              ... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
                   FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
                                                                                             AN INTENSE ATLANTIC STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES
                   A DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET               SOUTHEAST OF CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING. SWELLS BEING
                   ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN RHODE ISLAND THIS             GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE COASTAL
                   AFTERNOON. PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE ARE THE EAST FACING                    FLOODING TODAY-ESPECIALLY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
                   SHORES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY ... INCLUDING EAST FACING SECTION OF
                   THE ISLAND IN THE BAY. EAST FACING COASTAL SECTION OF THE STATC           EARLY REPORTS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OCCURRED THIS
                   SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT-AND IN PARTICULAR POINT JUDITH..AND THE              MORNING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. HAREST HIT AREA APPEARS
                   EAST SHORE OF BLOCK ISLAND WILL BE MOST AT RISK. THE ADDITION OF          TO BE MILFORD   ALTHOUGH DAMAGE REPORTS WERE NOT YET
                   EASTERN SWELLS OF UP TO 15 FEET COULD INTENSIFY THE PROBLEM AT            AVAILABLE. AS OF 700AM ... SIKORSKI MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN STRATFORD
                   BLOCK ISLAND AND S COSTAL RI-ESPECIALLY IN THE POINT OF JUDITH            WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODED RUNWAYS.
                   AREA OF NARRAGANSETT. SOME BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
                   ALONG WITH HEAVY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE STATE.              THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST THIS
                                                                                             AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 400 AND 600 PM EST.
                   THE LAST HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING RAN 2 AND ONE HALF FEET             HOWEVER ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDE
                   ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND LOWER                  SPREAD OR AS SEVERE AS THIS MORNING.
                   BAROMETRIC PRESSURE TODAY WILL RAISE TIDES EVEN HIGHER TODAY.
                                                                                             THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE..
                   HIGH TIDE AT PROVIDENCE IS AT 1:34 PM
                   HIGH TIDE AT NEWPORT IS AT 1:20 PM                                        NEW LONDON   ... 407 PM EST
                                                                                             BRIDGEPORT  ... 554 PM EST
                   ANY FLOODING IN RHODE ISLAND COULD BEGIN WITHIN ONE HOUR OF               STAMFORD   ..... 602 PM EST
                   HIGH TIDE AND WILL PROBABLY COINCIDE WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
                   WINDS.                                                                    THE NEXT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AS DAMAGE
                                                                                             REPORTS ARE RECEIVED AND EXACT TIDE GAGE READINGS ARE
                   THE MASSIVE   INTENSE STRONG IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC WAS LOCATED             OBTAINED.
                   ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING              BINGHAM
                   WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS WILL BRING IT CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
                   TODAY.                                                                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                   PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING COASTAL SECTION OF RHODE ISLAND

                                                                                        C-5

                   SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WEATHER MAP                 COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                   DISCUSSION FOR NORTHER NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME             FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME
                   SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING LONG ISLAND               SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING LONG ISLAND
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
                   420 AM EST MON OCT 28 1991
                                                                             ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
                    A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE               THIS AFTERNOON FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
                   NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL SOUTHWARD TO                  MONTAUK POINT TO MANASQAUAN INLET NEW JERSEY
                   MANASQUAN INLET TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...               INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND ... NEW YORK HARBOR..AND
                                                                             THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER...
                   A CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BRING ABOUT A NEW MASS OF
                   WEATHER FEATURES TODAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE           AN INTENSE ATLANTIC STORM ... CURRENTLY LOCATED
                   MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT PUSHED                   ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK PINT ... HAS
                   SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION                VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS NOW
                   AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THE            HEADING AWAY FROM THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER,
                   DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF NEW YORK CITY AND                 SWELLS BEING GENERATED BY THIS POWERFUL STORM
                   EASTWARD OVER LONG ISLAND PRETTY WELL                     WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING TODAY,
                   DISSIPATED ... AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVED.                 ESPECIALLY NEA TIME OF HIGH TIDES. IT IS BELIEVED THAT
                                                                             THE WORST FLOODING HAS JUST RECENTLY OCCURRED
                   WINDS SWITCHED AROUND TO NORTH ... AND THESE NORTH        WITH THE PASSING OF OUT LATEST ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
                   WINDS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS DOWN FROM UPSTATE            TIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD TIDES AROUND OUR REGION
                   NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. COASTAL            AVERAGED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
                   LOCATIONS MAY HAVE SUN MIXED WITH THE CLOUDS AT           LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS
                   TIME ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS WILL         OF LONG ISLAND AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LAST NIGHT
                   LIKELY HAVE LESS SUNSHINE.                                AND EARLY THIS MORNING. IN FACT THE TIDES HAVE RISEN
                                                                             SO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THAT SOME RIVERS AND
                   THOSE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING              STREAMS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY..THIAT FEED INTO THE
                   TODAY AS A COUPLE OF THINGS ARE HAPPENING. STRONG         HUDSON RIVER OR NEW YORK BAY..HAVE EXPERIENCE
                   HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTRAST SHARPLY           SOME SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THEIR BANKS.
                   WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COASTAL.
                   ALSO ... HURRICANE GRACE WHICH WAS WEST OF BERMUDA        MANY COSTAL SECTIONS REMAIN FLOODED AT THIS TIME
                   THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THEN                 BUT WITH THE COMING OF LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
                   NORTHWARD TODAY AND CURVE NORTHEASTWARD                   THIS MORNING..MOST OF, THIS FLOODING SHOULD RECEDE.
                   TONIGHT ... MERGING WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE        UNFORTUNATELY..OUR ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES ARE
                   SYSTEM. THESE ACTIONS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE          EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
                   AIRFLOW OVER OUR TRI-STATE REGION DURING TODAY            WHICH WOULD BEING US TO OUR NEXT SCHEDULED
                   TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.                                 ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THE STORM GENERATED TIDES
                                                                             OF THEIR AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS THAN THOSE
                   COASTAL NEW JERSEY MAY SEE SOME SEARCH EROSION            EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING..BUT
                   AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS             NOWTHE-LESS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 1/2
                   MAINLY AS TIME OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND INTO             AND 3 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT ANOTHER
                   TUESDAY AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RIDE A LONG           EPISODE OF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ... HOWEVER
                   WAY OVER OPEN WATER. ALSO ... THE SURF WILL BECOME        IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE OR SEVER AS
                   QUITE HEAVY AND COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE               THIS MORNINGS.
                   AWARD THAT THE SURF ALONG THE COASTAL WILL BE
                   QUITE ROUGH FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND          WITH THE STORM NO MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION
                   INTO TUESDAY. THE SWELL GENERATED FROM HURRICANE          AND WEAKENING AT THAT ... OUR ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES
                   GRACE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HIGHER THAN NORMAL             WILL CONTINUE T DOWNWARD TREND TO MORE
                   SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ON MANY EAST-FACING          ACCEPTABLE LEVELS BY TONIGHT.
                   BEACHES BEGINNING LATE TODAY AN TONIGHT. MARINERS
                   ARE URGED TO BE AWARE OF THIS AND TAKE ALL                THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM THIS
                   NECESSARY PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES. BE ESPECIALLY           MORNING
                   CAREFUL AT AND NEAR INLETS.                               STALKER

                   TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER EARLY THIS WEEK          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                   AS COMPARED TO LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE
                   WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE 30S
                   AND LOW 40S TONIGHT AND RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER 40S
                   AND LOW 50S TUESDAY. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR BY
                   WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE
                   NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
                   AREA GRADUALLY MOVES OVER US AND THEN OFFSHORE.

                   THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM
                   PORIER

                                                                         C-6

               SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT                                COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
               FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NJ
               SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK                                    428 PM EST OCT 30 1991
               INCLUDING LONG ISLAND
               NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                     ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY FROM
               345 PM EST WED OCT 30 1991                               MANASQUAN INLET SOUTH TO CAPE MAY INCLUDING THE
                                                                        BACK BAYS...
               ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND             ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WITH SEVERE BEACH EROSION...
               TONIGHT FOR WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO MONTAUK           ... GALE WARNING IN EFFECT...
               POINT MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY INCLUDING LONG
               ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR..                       A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
               STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE         SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL FOR SEVERE TIDAL
               ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER INCLUDING LONG ISLAND             FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
               SOUND                                                    THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE
               ... GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NEW      OCEAN FRONT AT 144 AM AND 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER IN THE
               YORK HARBOR                                              BACK BAYS.
               ... HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
               FOR SUFFOLK COUNTRY..                                    TIDES AT 3 PM EST WERE RUNNING AROUND 4 1/2 FEET
                                                                        ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND WERE
               AN INTENSE STORM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC ABOUT 450         ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN
               MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE        SOME OF THE BACK BAYS. THESE DEPARTURES ARE
               MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG             EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SO FLOODING
               NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE STORM WILL           EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
               MAINTAIN A STRONG FETCH THAT WILL DRIVE TIDES UP TO      OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ANTICIPATING HIGH
               5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG SOME COASTAL SECTIONS          TIDE ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT TO REACH AROUND 8 1/2
               TONIGHT.                                                 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AROUND 9 FEET IN
                                                                        SOME BACK SAYS 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER.
               THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING
               ALONG MANY COASTAL SECTIONS. SINCE I P.M. THE            COSTAL RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE
               NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL            TO MONITOR THE FLOODING SITUATION. FLOODING
               REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING CAUSING THE NEED OF          ALREADY HAS CLOSED SECTIONS OF THE WHITE AND
               EVACUATION FROM AREAS THAT INCLUDE MONTAUK ... FIRE      BLACK HORSE PIKES AND THESE ROADS MAY REMAIN
               ISLAND AND CONEY ISLAND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF         CLOSED FOR A GOOD BALANCE OF THE EVENING. OTHER
               LONG ISLAND. WE HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF            BARRIER ISLAND ROADS ARE CURRENTLY IMPASSABLE
               HIGHWAY FLOODING AND BASEMENT FLOODING ALONG             ALONG MANY COASTAL COMMUNITIES. ATLANTIC CITY HAS
               AREAS OF SOUTH LONG ISLAND. SPECIFICALLY-THE             OPENED UP SHELTERS IN THE EVENT THAT EVACUATION
               POLICE HAVE REPORTED ALL LANE$ CLOSED SOUTH OF           MAY BE NECESSARY IN PARTS OF THE CITY.
               MERRICK ROAD OF MEADOWBROOK STATE PARKWAY AND
               UNDER BAY DRIVE ON WANTAGH STATE PARKWAY. PLEASE         FOR SURFERS WHO DARE TO VENTURE OUT AND RIDE THE
               USE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DURING THIS EVENING S RUSH         SURF ... BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL AND STAY ALERT. RIP
               HOUR. LISTEN TO THE RADIO FOR ALTERNATE TRAVEL           CURRENTS ARE QUITE STRONG ... ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
               ROUTES. DON'T BE FOOLED BY THIS AFTERNOONS BLUE          UNDERTOW.,
               SKIES.
                                                                        THE REASON FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS AN
               TIDES WILL BE THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN         INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 450 MILES EAST
               2PM AND 5PM WITH SECONDARY HIGH TIDES AGAIN LATE         OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
               TONIGHT. AT 2:45 PM. AREA TIDES ARE AVERAGING 2 TO 4     MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CONTINUED
               FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT SANDY HOOK.NEW                      NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING ONGOING BEACH
               JERSEY..WILLETS POINT AND THE BATTERY NEW YORK,.         EROSION AND ROUGH SURF.
               WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
               EVENING BEFORE PEAKING LATER TONIGHT.. EXTENSIVE         COASTAL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE
               FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY              TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
               THROUGH TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. WINDS RE FORECAST TO        WHICH CAN BE HEARS ON THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL
               SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND FLOODING WILL DECREASE.        WEATHER SERVICE ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON 162.40 MHZ.
               SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION WILL ALSO OCCUR.
               THE TIDE WILL REACH ITS CLOSETS POINT TO THE REGION      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN ATLANTIC
               BY LATE TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH WELL       CITY WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND KEEP
               EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JER,5EY COA@iT.                 YOU INFORMED WITH FURTHER STATEMENTS
                                                                        WS/Sio
               STAY TUNED. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE 15,5VED BY 5
               A.M. OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.                    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
               CONTE

                                                                    C-7

                         COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                             A COMBINAT10N OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
                         NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK               HURRICANE GRACE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP A
                         INCLUDING LONG ISLAND                                               CONTINUED FLOW OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG COASTAL
                         NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                NEW JERSEY FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
                         350 P, EST THU OCT 31 1991
                                                                                             TIDES AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON WERE RUNNING NEAR 1 1/2
                         ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS            FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WITH CONTINUED GALE FORCE WINDS INTO
                         EVENING FROM WATCH HILL R140DE ISLAND TO MONTAUK POINT TO           TUESDAY TIDES WILL BECOME 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
                         MANASQAUAN INLET NEW JERSEY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND                   THEREFORE TIDE HEIGHTS OF NEAR 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW
                         SOUND ... NEW YORK HARBOR..AND THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER...            (MLW) ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND 7 1/2 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MLW
                                                                                             IN SOME BACK BAYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE
                         THE MISCHIEF NIGHT AND HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 WAS THE              TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 1146 AM ALONG THE OCEAN
                         MOST DAMAGING COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE TRI-STATE ARE             FRONT AND 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER IN THE BACK BAYS.
                         IN A LONG TIME ... PROBABLY 20 YEARS OF MORE. THE POWERFUL
                         STORM WHICH INTENSIFIES WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL            FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN CONVERSING MEAN LOW WATER TO
                         MOVED IN AN UNUSUAL WESTWARD MOTION AND NEARED THE                  MEAN SEA LEVEL JUST SUBTRACT 2 FEET FROM THE ABOVE
                         COAST WITH IT COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WEDNESDAY.               VALUES.
                         THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THREW A GREAT DEAL OF
                         WEATHER UP ONTO THE COASTAL ZONE. TIDES WERE 5 TO 7 FEET            AT 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER ACCESS ROAD FROM THE
                         ABOVE NORMAL ... LIKELY MORE IN SOME CASES ... DURING               MAINLAND TO THE BARRIER ISLAND BEGIN TO FLOOD.
                         WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
                                                                                             ROUGH AREAS AND STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
                         MANY HOUSES WERE DESTROYED ON LONG ISLAND'S OCEAN SIDE.             ALSO CAUSE MODERATE AND POSSIBLE SEVERE BEACH EROSION
                         BEACH EROSION WAS CONSIDERABLE. THE NEW JERSEY SHORE                THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
                         ALSO RECEIVED A GREAT DEAL OF DAMAGE. CUTS IN THE BEACH
                         OF 3 TO 5 FEET WERE COMMON.                                         PERSONS PLANNING ON COMMUNITY TO OR FROM THE BARRIER
                                                                                             ISLAND ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION
                         HIGH TIDE WAS BEING EXPERIENCED IN MANY PLACES AROUND               BY LISTENING TO NOaA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
                         THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA AT MID AND LATE                      STATIONS FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS ON THE FLOODING. THE
                         AFTERNOON ... AND SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE HIGH TIDE INTO THE           NEXT STATEMENT OR WARNING.JF NEEDED WILL BE ISSUED
                         EARLY EVENING. AT 3PM THE 11DE WAS 3 3/4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL          AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT.
                         AT SANDY HOOK... 2 1 /2 FEET AT THE BATTERY ... AND 1 FOOT ABOVE    KRIEGER
                         NORMAL AT WILLETS POINT. AS YOU CAN SEE..THE TIDES HAVE             >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                         DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. MORE COSTAL FLOODING WILL
                         OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND              SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
                         EVENING ... BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NY
                         SEVERE FLOODING. HIGH TIDES WILL BE 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE               1240 PM EST TUE OCT 29 1991
                         NORMAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
                                                                                             ... MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
                         WATER SHOULD SLOWLY RECEDE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL                THIS AFTERNOON IN BACK BAY AREAS.
                         CONTINUE TO DIMISH AS THE STORM SLOWLY WEAKENS.
                                                                                             ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WITH BEACH EROSION...
                         CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
                         SATURDAY. A CHANGE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST AS THE             AT 1150 AM THIS MORNING THE TIDE RAN ALMOST 2 1/2 FEET (2.4)
                         STORM REMAINS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR AREA..BUT THE                 ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT. THIS CAUSED THE
                         CHANGE WILL DECREASES AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY TO THE                TIDES TO REACH 7.2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER. SOME
                         NORTHEAST FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPF30ACH            FLOODING HAS OCCURRED.
                         THE TRI-STATE AREA BY SATURDAY-BRINGING WITH IT MOE CLOUDS
                         AND ANOTHER CHANGE OF SHOWERS.                                      THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS THE BACK BAYS WHERE
                                                                                             FLOODING BEGINS 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER OR BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2
                         TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE               PM. AT THIS TIME WERE ARE EXPECTING TIDES TO REACH 7 112
                         NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                      FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOME
                                                                                             BACK BAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME ROAD TO EIGHT HAVE SOME
                         ONE THING WERE ARE GRATEFUL FOR IS THAT THE LOSS OF LIFE            EASTERN ON THEM OR EVEN BE CLOSED, ATLANTIC CITY
                         HAS BEEN KEPT TO A MINIMUM..DUE IN PART TO COOPERATION              EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 14AS MADE A REQUEST THAT ALL
                         FROM PEOPLE WHO AGREED TO BE EVACUATED AS WELL AS THE               MOTORISTS USE THE ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY INSTEAD OF THE
                         WARNING THAT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED THIS MAJOR STORM              WHITEHORSE OR BLACK HORSE PIKES UNTIL 3 30 THIS AFTERNOON.
                         WHICH WILL LIKELY IRE A BENCHMARK FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.
                                                                                             CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE
                         THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM, THIS                 BEACH EROSION.
                         EVENING..OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT AND AS DETAILS
                         BECOME AVAILABLE.                                                   PERSONS ALONG BACK BAY AREAS AND THOSE TRAVELING INTO OR
                                                                                             OUR OF THE BARRIER ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
                         >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>         SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TV
                                                                                             STATIONS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS.
                         SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT                                           KRIERGER
                         NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NJ
                         190 PM EDT MON OCT 29 1991                                          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                         ... MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM
                         MANAQUAN TO CAPE MAY ESPECIALLY IN BACK BAY AREAS...
                         ..GALE WARNINGS ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AND BEACH EROSION
                         ALONG COAST...

                                                                                        C-8

                  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                   WISCONSIN AVENUE 15 6 Fr.
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ATLANTIC CITY NJ
                  455 AM EST THU OCT 3 1991                                                 LOW LYING AREAS ALL ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL EXPERIENCE
                                                                                            SOME MINOR FLOODING ... THIS INCLUDES AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
                  ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY               FAIRFAX COUNTY SUCH AS OLDTOWN ALEXANDRIA AND MT. VERNON.
                  COAST FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO CAPE MAY INCLUDING THE BACK                 ALSO THE LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GEORGETOWN WATERFRONT
                  BAYS                                                                      AREA IN WASHINGTON D.C. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF
                  ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WITH BEACH EROSION...                             FLOODING ON THE BRIDGE LEADING TO COBBISLAND IN CHARLES
                  ... GALE WARNING...                                                       COUNTY MARYLAND.

                  A COSTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN                  THE TIDE WILL START TO RECEDE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THE
                  NEW JERSEY COASTAL AND THE BACK BAYS FOR EXTREME TIDAL                    NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 6
                  FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.               FT CRITICAL FLOOD STAGE.
                  HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT THE VENTNOR CITY FISHING PIER AT 203 PM
                  THIS AFTERNOON AND i TO 2 HOURS LATER IN THE BACK BAYS.                   PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF CHAIN
                                                                                            BRIDGE SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY ALERT FOR RISING WATER THROUGH
                  TIDES AT 4 AM EST THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING 5 TO 5 1/2 FEET               THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEASURERS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
                  ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND ESTIMATED TO BE                    PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT HAS SUFFERED WATER DAMAGE FROM
                  ABOUR A FOOT HIGHER IN THE BACK BAYS. AT 144 AM THIS MORNING              PROPER FLOODING.
                  HIGH TIDE CRESTED A 9 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER. THIS WAS                 KANE/SCHWERDT
                  THE 2ND ALL-TIME HIGH TIDE EVER ... PASSING SUCH MARKS AS THE 8.7
                  FOOT READING DURING THE NOVEMBER STORM OF 1950 AND                        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  OVERTAKING THE 8.9 FEET OF WATER ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT
                  DURING THE MARCH STORM OF 1962.                                           COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                                                                                            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON DE
                  THINGS GET WORSE...                                                       1133 AM EST THU OCT 31 1991

                  HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EVEN HIGHER THAN WHAT                  ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF DELAWARE
                  TOOK PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. 9 TO 9 1/2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW             TODAY...
                  WATER WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OCEAN                     ... HEAVY SURF FOR DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
                  FRONT. THE ALL-TIME HIGH TIDE RECORD OF 9.3 FEET OCCURRED                 ... BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF DELAWARE TODAY
                  DURING THE HURRICANE OF 1944.                                             AND TONIGHT...

                  RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR BACK                  AN INTENSE STORM ABOUT 175 MILES EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND
                  BAYS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION                 VIRGINIA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
                  VERY CLOSELY. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOOD WATER                   CAUSING STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
                  RISE. MOTORISTS NEAR FLOOD PRONE BACK BAYS SHOULD MOVE                    COAST ... THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY GRADUALLY DIMISHING
                  THEIR VEHICLES TO HIGHER GROUND OR FARTHER INLAND. IN YOUR                TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOSING THEIR GRIP ON THE COAST LATER
                  MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE ... LEAVE YOURSELF EXTRA               TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
                  TIME TO REACH YOUR SEMINATION SAFELY.                                     SOUTHEAST THEN EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO
                                                                                            WEAKEN.
                  THE REASON FOR THIS HISTORY MAKING EVENT IS A DANGEROUS LOW
                  PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 240 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY                  DUNES ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST ARE REPORTED IN BAD SHAPE
                  NEW JERSEY. THIS PERSISTENT WAVE MAKING MACHINE WILL                      ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION THIS
                  CONTINUE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD US BRINGING ITS                     MORNING. AS HIGH TIDES OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON SUBSTANTIAL
                  NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS.                                       BEACH EROSION AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WILL KIELY
                                                                                            OCCUR.
                  BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE ITS PROBLEMS ALONG THE
                  SHORE. ADDING INSULT TO INJURY ... THE ROUGH SURF AND STRONG              HIGH TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
                  WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION NOW TAKING                    INDIAN RIVER 324 PM EST ... OCEAN CITY 205 PM ... AND BREAKWATER
                  PLACE.                                                                    HARBOR DE 314 PM    TIDES HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3
                                                                                            FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
                  NOT ONLY IS THE BEACH ERODING AWAY
                                                                                            THE FLOODING HAS AFFECTED BOTH THE OCEAN FRONT AREAS AND
                  REPORTS OF THE BOARDWALK COMING APART IN THE ATLANTIC CITY                THE TIDAL INFLUENCED STREAMS AND BAYS ... SOME OF THE BACK
                  INLET AREA BETWEEN PACIFIC AND ORIENTAL AVENUES WERE                      DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD UNTIL THE STRONG MOVES WELL
                  RECEIVED THIS MORNING.                                                    AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE WATER HAS A CHANCE TO RECEDE,

                  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVING IN ATLANTIC CITY WILL CONTINUE               WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40
                  TO MONITOR THIS FLOODING SITUATION AND KEEP YOU INFORMED                  MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ... DIMISHING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
                  WITH FURTHER STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                               TONIGHT.
                  CHIELLINI
                                                                                            THIS STORM HAS HAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
                  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;>           ALONG THE COAST OF DELAWARE..FLOODING OF BOTH THE COASTAL
                                                                                            SECTIONS AND THE BAYS ALONG WITH ANY TIDAL INFLUENCED STEAMS
                  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                   WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATEST PROBLEMS OCCURRING
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC                                    AROUND THE TIMED OF HIGH TIDES. HEAVY SURF AND SIGNIFICANT
                  1215 AM EST FRI NOV 1 1991                                                BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

                  ... FLOODING AT THE TIME FOR HIGH TIDE WAS OCCURRING ON THE               THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM EST THIS
                  POTOMAC RIVER EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING...                                AFTERNOON.
                                                                                            CKD
                  HIGH TIDE AT WISCONSIN AVENUE IS AT 254 AM EST. THE WATER
                  CONTINUED TO RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL BE BETWEEN 6             >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  AND 6.5 FT ABOUT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. FLOOD STAGE AT

                                                                                      C-9

                       COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEAT14ER RADIO FOR UPDATED
                       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORFOLK VA                                    INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COASTAL FOOD
                       1000 PM EDT MON OCT 28 1991                                            SITUATION,. BE ALERT TO INFORMATION FROM LOCAL
                                                                                              GOVERNMENT AGENCIES SHOULD EVACUATION BE DEEMED
                         A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE              NECESSARY.
                       ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA...
                                                                                              A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY
                       THE COM13INATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDE THAT                   MORNING TO KEEP YOU UP TO DATE ON THIS SITUATION.
                       EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN                    SMITH/BELVILLE/GUSTIN
                       SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND HURRICANE GRACE
                       WLL OUR OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A STRONG ONSHORE                >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                       FLOW FOR COASTAL VIRGINIA. THIS IS
                       POTENTIALLY A LONG LASTING COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION. THIS               COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT..UPDATED
                       WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANCE ONLY SLOWLY                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORFOLK VA
                       DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.                                              530 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 1991

                       COASTAL FLOODING HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED BUT CONDITION ARE               ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE
                       FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT                ATLANTIC COAST...
                       12 TO 18 HOURS. THE TIDE CYCLE WILL PRODUCE,THE HIGHEST                ... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE MOUTH OF
                       TIDES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR TUESDAY AND                      THE BAY...
                       WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR BEACH               ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...
                       EROSION AND MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.                          ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND MOUTH OF THE
                                                                                              SAY...
                       TIDES AT SEWELL POINT ARE 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS
                       TIME. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED                   ON THE EARLY MORNING WEATHER MAP ... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
                       EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                 OVER EASTERN CANADA IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
                       THOMAS                                                                 ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING OFF
                                                                                              THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ... AND HURRICANE GRACE IS POSITIONED
                       >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>@..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>          NEAR BERMUDA. THE CIRCULATIONS AROUND THESE WEATHER
                                                                                              SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING NORTHEAST WINDS AT GALE FORCE AND
                       COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                HEAVY SEAS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INT HE LOWER
                       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON, DC                                CHESAPEAKE BAY.
                       910 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991
                                                                                              DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ... HURRICANE GRACE WILL
                        A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE                      BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGE OCEAN STORM OFF THE
                       ATLANTIC COAST FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO AND INCLUDING                     EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS LARGE STORM WILL BECOME
                       VIRGINIA BEACH...                                                      STATIONARY AND COMBINE WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
                                                                                              SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHWARD TO MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF
                       THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                       GALE FORCE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA.
                       NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND HURRICANE GRACE IN THE ATLANTIC                  THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG-LASTING PERIOD OF HEAVY
                       WEST OF BERMUDA IS CAUSING NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO GALE                  SURF ... BEACH EROSION AND INCREASINGLY HIGH WATER LEVELS.
                       FORCE AND HEAVY SEAS ALONG PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
                       COAST. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET ARE BEING FELT ON PORTIONS              TIDES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
                       OF THE VIRGINIA COAST ... ANDTIDES EVEN AT LOW WATER ARE               WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
                       STARTING TO RUN A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL.                        MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF
                                                                                              THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
                       COASTAL FLOODING HAS NT YET DEVELOPED. HOWEVER                         DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS
                       CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING TO                  MOST VULNERABLE INCLUDE WILLOUGHBY SPIT..OCEAN
                       OCCUR WITHIN ABOUT 1214OURS ... AS T14E STRONG HIGH WILL               VIEW ... CHESAPEAKE BEACH ... BUCKROE AND GRANDVIEW BEACHES
                       REMAIN STATIONARY ... AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST            IN HAMPTON ... AND THE SANDBRIDGE AREA OF VIRGINIA BEACH.
                       OFFSHORE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND TIME MID ATLANTIC COAST
                       FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                  LOCAL TIDAL INFORMATION

                       BY MID MORNING TUESDAY ... THE WEATHER SERVICE EXPECTS                             LOW HIGH LOW HIGH
                       MINOR FLOODING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DELAWARE AND                       SEWELLS POINT     7:08AM 1:36PM 9:11 PM 3:12AM WED
                       MARYLAND COASTS..AND MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE                 VA BEACH OCEANFRONT 5:38AM 1206PM 7:41 PM 1:42AM WED
                       VIRGINIA COAST. IN ADDITION..THE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WILL
                       CONTINUE ALL ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE HENOPEN TO
                       VIRGINIA BEACH.                                                        RESIDENTS IN THE VULNERABLE AREAS SHOULD CONSULT LOCAL
                                                                                              AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING YOUR
                       THIS IS POTENTIALLY A LONG-LASTING COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION.            PARTICULAR LOCATION AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND
                       HURRICANE GRACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF BERMUDA                    PROPERTY. BE ALERT TO INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL
                       TUESDAY AND WEAKEN...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY              GOVERNMENT AGENCIES SHOULD EVACUATION BE DEEMED
                       AN INTENSE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN                    NECESSARY.
                       BERMUDA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE
                       STATIONARY HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WIL COMBINE WITH THE                STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
                       LOW TO MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS                 FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
                       ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ... FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO           COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION. THE NEXT COASTAL FLOOD
                       36 HOURS. ASA RESULT ... CONTINUED HEAVY SURF AND STRONG               STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.
                       ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HIGH WATER LEVELS                WALSTON
                       AS WELL AS POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION ... FOR AS LONG AS THIS
                       PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTEN LASTS.                                       >>>>>>>>>>>>>@->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                                                                                   C-10

                  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORFOLK VA                                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALIEGH/DURHAM
                  515 PM EST THU OCT 31 1991                                               1045 PM EST SUN 27 1991

                  ... HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST       ...           ... A COSTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FROM SOUTH OF VIRGINIA
                  ... MODERATE BEACH EROSION TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...                 BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
                  ... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST AND THE MOUTH OF
                  THE BAY...                                                               PORTION OF THE. NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALREADY FEELING THE
                                                                                           FRINGE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GRACE TONIGHT ... AS LARGE
                  AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF                  WAVES GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE THREATENED THE OUTER
                  NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND IS                 BANKS WITH BEACH EROSION.
                  EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. ON FRIDAY ... THIS LOW
                  PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA                    AT 10:30PM ... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED
                  SCOTIA.                                                                  ABOUT 425 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE
                                                                                           STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH ... BUT IS
                  THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM ON COASTAL VIRGINIA HAVE BEEN                   WAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
                  LARGELY FELT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE A COMBINATION OF                REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
                  HIGH TIDES AND VERY HEAVY SURF HAVE PRODUCED SOME
                  STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE SANDBRIDGE AREA OF VIRGINIA                     SIX FOOT BREAKERS WERE REPORTED AT THE PIER AT DUCK 10
                  BEACH. THE HOMES THAT SUFFERED THE MOST DAMAGE WHERE                     PM ... AND SEAS HAD INCREASED TO 13 FT AT THE DATA 13UOY ... SOME
                  THOSE NOT PROTECTED BY A BULKHEAD. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED                  130 MILES EAST OF CAP HATTERAS.
                  MOSTLY OF SEPTIC SYSTEMS BEING WASHED OUT AND
                  STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO WOOD STRUCTED ATTACHED TO THE                       WAVES WERE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN HEIGHT
                  GROUND LEVEL PILINGS. SANDFIDLER ROAD AND OVERWASHING IN                 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ON MONDAY ... AND TO CONTINUE INTO
                  SEVERAL PLACED DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.                          MONDAY NIGHT.

                  CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND                        COMPOUNDING THIS PROBLEM IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
                  THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER..THOSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE                       SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
                  ATLANTIC COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE SANDBRIDGE SECTION OF                  PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY AND
                  VIRGINIA BEACH WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF AND                      MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
                  MODERATE TO HEAVY BEACH EROSION TONIGHT MAINLY DURING                    ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE AND THE STRONG HIGH
                  TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.                                                      PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHEAST
                                                                                           TO NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
                  HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AT 2:58AM AT VIRGINIA BEACH AND
                  4:28 AM AT SEWELLS POINT. THE TIDE AT NORTH LOCATIONS                    WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
                  SHOULD CREST BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER                    TO 40 MPH FROM SOUTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT BY
                  LOW WATER WHICH WILL BE ABOUT A HALF FOOT LOWER THAN                     LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD
                  WAS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON AT THIGH TIDE. THIS WILL                  CONTINUE TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET IN THESE AREAS.
                  PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING                    SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
                  AREAS ALONG TIDAL ESTUARIES.                                             COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
                                                                                           TIME OF HIGH TIDE JUST BEFORE NOON MONDAY. THE AREAS THAT
                  SUBSIDING WAVES AND TIDES ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY                COULD BE MOST AFFECTED WILL BE FROM CAP HATTERAS
                  MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY                        NORTHWARD ... ESPECIALLY IN THE NAGS HEAD AND KILL DEVIL HILLS
                  AFTERNOON.                                                               REGION.

                  RESIDENCE WHO EXPERIENCE TIDAL FLOODING OR WHO LIVE                      GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE INCREASING WINDS
                  ALONG THE BEACHES CAN LEARN A VALUABLE LESSON FRO THIS                   FROM SOUTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH TO CAPE LOOKOUT. SMALL
                  STORM. THE MAXIMUM TIDE AT SEWELLS POINT REACHED 5.6 FEET                CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF CAPE
                  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE                  LOOKOUT TO LITTLE RIVE INLET. HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN
                  THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEVEL OCCURS ON AVERAGE ABOUT TWO                   IN EFFECT ALONGTHE ENTIRE COAST.
                  TIMES A YEAR AND RESULTS IN MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL
                  FLOODING. OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS WERE AVERAGE A STORM                   REMEMBER ... A COASTAL FLOOR WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
                  SURGE OF 6.1 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ONCE EVERY                  ARE FAVORABLE FRO COASTAL FLOODING. YOU SHOULD BE
                  THREE YEARS AND 8.1 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER                      PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IF FLOODING OCCURS
                  ONCE EVERY 11 YEARS. EITHER OF THESE STORM SURGES IS                     OR IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
                  RELATIVELY COMMON AND WOULD PRODUCE FAR MORE FLOODING
                  AND DAMAGE THAN THE STORM WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED.                      LISTING TO LOCAL RADIO..TV..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
                                                                                           FURTHER INFORMATION.
                  IF THIS STORM AFFECTED YOUR PROPERTY ... REMEMBER HOW HIGH               CDM
                  THE WATER CAME SO THAT YOU WILL KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A
                  STORM SURGE OF 6 ... 7 OR EVEN 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW               >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>;,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  WATER IS FORECAST WITH A FUTURE STORM. ADDITIONAL
                  STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED. RITTER

                                                                                C-11

                        PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT                                             SOUTH OF BUXTON ... FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY FROM THE
                        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NG                                SOUTHSIDE   ALTHOUGH ROUGH SEAS MAY BREAK OVER THE DUNS
                        1140 AM EST THU OCT 31 1991                                              BETWEEN FRISCO AND HATTERAS. OCRACOKE ISLAND WILL ALSO BE
                                                                                                 VULNERABLE TO SOUTHSIDE FLOODING IN THE VILLAGE..AND A
                        ... EVACUATION OF BEAC)i AREA ORDERED BY DARE COUNTY                     COMBINATION OF SOUNDSIDE AND OCEAN FLOODING ON THE NORTH
                        CONTROL GROUP...                                                         END OF THE ISLAND.

                        THE TOWNS OF NAGS HEAD AND KILL DEVIL HILLS ARE EVACUATING               NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR CONTINUED TO
                        IMMEDIATELY ... PEOPLE WHO LIKE ON THE NAGS HEAD OCEANFRONT              BUFFET THE AREA. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME IN SPEED
                        AND THE WEST SIDE OF OLD OREGON INLET ROAD SOUTH OF WHALE-               DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE
                        BONE JUNCTION.                                                           FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS.

                        KILL DEVIL HILLS IS EVACUATING PEOPLE LIVING ON THE                      THE WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 12 FEET.. MAINLY'
                        OCEANFRONT BETWEEN THE HIGHWAYS OF THE BY-PASS.                          NORTH OF CAP HATTERAS..WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY
                                                                                                 TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS A DIAMOND SHOALS WERE AT 13 FEET. A
                        ALL THOSE EVACUATING..WHO NEED SHELTER..ARE INSTRUCTED TO                BOUY 130 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS
                        GO TO THE MANTEO HIGH SCHOOL. WE ARE INSTRUCTING PEOPLE                  OF 20 FEET AT 7PM EST. THESE HIGHER WAVES WIL BE WORKING
                        TO EVACUATE FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY..SAND NAGS HEAD MAJOR                   THEIR WAY ONSHORE.
                        DON DRYAN.
                                                                                                 COASTAL RESIDENTS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT ... 13UT ESPECIALLY
                        NAGS HEAD AND KILL DEVIL HILLS POLICE AND FIRE DEPARTMENTS               NORTH OF CAP HATTERAS ... SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
                        ARE GOING HOUSE TO HOUSE..WHERE POSSIBLE.-TO ISSUE THE                   DEVELOPMENTS ... LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS..AND BE
                        INSTRUCTIONS.                                                            PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIVES AND
                                                                                                 PROPERTY.
                        THE ROAD IS STILL PASSABLE ... BUT AS WE WAIT MUCH LONER IT WILL         B TERRI=[
                        BE..BRYAN SAID. WE ALREADY ARE EXPERIENCING OCEAN
                        OVERWASH AND WERE THREE HOUR SWAY FROM HIGH TIDE.                        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

                        QUITE A FEW PEOPLE EVACUATED ON THEIR OWN LAST NIGHT. THIS               COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
                        HIGH TIDE ID EXPECTED TO BE WORSE THAN THAT.                             NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NC
                                                                                                 100 AM EST WED OCT 30 1991
                        THOSE GOING TO THE SHELTER SHOULD TAKE BLANKETS..PILLOWS
                        TOILETRY ITEMS..MEDIATION..AND OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS.                     ... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
                        END/AP                                                                   CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO NC-VA BORDER...
                        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>            ... GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
                                                                                                 COASTAL WATERS...
                        COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT                                                  ... A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
                        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NC                                COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
                        935 PM EST MON OCT 28 1991
                                                                                                 ONCE AGAIN ... HIGH TIDE HAS BROUGHT COASTAL FLOODING
                          A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH                     CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. MOST AREAS
                        CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO VIRGINIA                       REPORTED MINOR FLOODING AND OVERWASH ALONG PORTIONS OF
                        BORDER...                                                                THE BEACH ROAD AND OVER ROUTE 12.
                        ... GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
                        COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING T14E ALBEMARLE..CURRITUCK...AND                 VISITORS TO THE AREA ... NOT FAMILIAR WITH COASTAL FLOODING
                        PAMLICO SOUNDS...                                                        SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE WATER RECEDES ... SAND AND
                        ... A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA            DEBRIS WILL COVER THE ROADWAYS. ALSO REMEMBER NOT TO
                        COAST...                                                                 ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THE ROADWAY MAY
                                                                                                 BE UNDERMINED. ALSO ... SALT WATER IS HIGHLY CORROSIVE TO
                        THE COMBINED EFFECT FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM                   AUTOMOBILES.
                        BUILDING OVER THE AREA ... AND THE DISTANT HURRICANE GRACE
                        ABOUT 500 MILES OFFSHORE ... HAVE CAUSED A STEADY INCREASE IN            DARE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS REPORTED OVERWASH WAS
                        BOTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA.                                OCCURRING IN KITTY HAWK AT THE BATH HOUSE AT MILE POST
                                                                                                 NUMBER 3 AND IN KILL DEVIL HILLS AT THE SEA RANCH MOTEL AT
                        A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT OCEAN FLOODING IS                     MILE POST NUMBER EIGHT.
                        IMMINENT FORTHE WARNED AREA. PEOPLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
                        BEACH FRONT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR OCEAN FLOODING..AND BE                TIDES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE RUNNING ABOUT THE FOOT
                        PREPARED TO WATER COMING UNDER THE MORE EXPOSED HORSE                    ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET MOST
                        ON THE BEACHFRONT. MORE EXPOSED SECTION OF THE BEACH                     AREAS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. REACH EROSION CONTINUED
                        ROADS WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO OVERWASH CONDITIONS..AND                   OVER THE AREA.,MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
                        COMBINED WITH SAND AND FLOOD DEBRIS. MAY BECOME
                        IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.                                         STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 PM CONTINUE TO BUFFET
                                                                                                 THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
                        THE MORE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE COAST ... THE NORTHERN               THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
                        BEACHES OF CURRITUCK COUNTY INCLUDING
                        COROLLA..CORAVA..AND THE PENNY HILL AREA. IN DARE                        FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 3AM ... BUT WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
                        COUNTRY ... THE BEACH ROAD BETWEEN KILL DEVIL HILLS AND NAGS             TIDE AROUND I PM 3 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
                        HEAD HAS SEVERAL THREATENED AREAS. SOUTH NAGS HAS A
                        HISTORY OF VULNERABILITY DURING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS,                  THE NEXT STATEMENT WLL BE ISSUED NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

                        ON HATTERAS ISLAND ... UNPOPULATED PEA ISLAND HAS SEVERAL                PEOPLE ON THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD STY TUNED TO NOAA
                        POINTS WHERE ROUTE 12 IS SUBJECT TO OVERWASH..JUST NORTH                 WEATHER RADIO..TV OR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS FOR POSSIBLE
                        OF THE VILLAGE OF RODANTHE AT THE SIGHT ON THE FORMER                    FURTHER UPDATES.
                        S-SURVES ... AND JUST NORTH OF THE VILLAGE OF BUXTON.

                                                                                          C-12

                  COASTAL OCEAN STATEMENT
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAPE HATTERAS NC
                  400 AM EST FRI NOV 01 1991

                  ... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
                  NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM VA-NC BORDER TO CAPE
                  LOOKOUT...
                  ... A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
                  CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD...

                  DARE COUNTY CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATE OF
                  EMERGENCY. ACCESS TO COASTAL DARE COUNTY AND
                  THE OUTER BANKS OF CURRITUCK COUNTY IS LIMITED TO
                  NLY THOSE WITH PROOF OF RESIDENCY. HOWEVER
                  HATTERAS ISLAND REMAINS CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC.

                  TIDE LEVELS DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE ARE
                  AROUND 2 AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL..THIS
                  COMPOUNDED WITH 8 FOOT WAVES BRAKING ALONG THE
                  COASTLINE..COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
                  EROSION CONTINUE TO PLAGUE TRAVEL AND PEOPLE
                  ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

                  COASTAL FLOODING AND OCEAN OVERWASH HAVE
                  RESTRICTED TRAVEL ALONG MOST PLACES ALONG THE
                  OLD BEACH ROAD FROM KITTY HAWK TO NAGS HEAD. NO
                  OFFICIAL WORD TO HOW MANY COTTAGES HAVE BEEN
                  LOST TO THE SEA WITHIN THIS AREA BUT MANY HAVE
                  SUFFERED PARTIAL TO SEVERE DAMAGE.

                  HIGHWAY 12 ONTO HATTERAS ISLAND HAS NOW BEEN
                  CLOSED TO TRAFFIC FOR ALMOST 2 DAYS. DUNE BREAKS
                  ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND HAS ALLOWED THE OCEAN TO
                  SURGE OVER HIGHWAY 12 AND INTO SEVERAL VILLAGES
                  ALONG THE OUTERBANKS. SOME OF THE SPILLAGE HAS
                  CONTAINANTED SOME OF THE FRESH WATER WELLS IN THE
                  RODANTHE AREA..PROMOTING OFFICIALS TO PLACE
                  PORTABLE WATER TANKS AT HE SALVO FIR
                  DEPARTMENT ... SUN REALTY BUILDING IN WAVES..AND
                  EMILYS RESTAURANT IN ROADATHE.

                  FERRY SERVICE BETWEEN HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
                  ISLAND WILL RESUME AT 5 THIS MORNING. FERRY SERVICE
                  BETWEEN OCRACOKE ISLAND AND THE MAINLAND WILL BE
                  RUNNING ON SCHEDULE TODAY-CONTACT FERRY
                  SERVICES FRO RESERVATIONS.

                  SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON
                  HATTERAS ISLAND SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. SOME
                  LOCATION SHAVE BEEN WITHOUT POWER FOR OVER 5
                  HOURS ... MAINLY BECAUSE OF TRANSFORMERS EXPLODING
                  DUE TO SALT BUILDUP.

                  ALTHOUGH SEA HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
                  FORECASTED TO BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING ... TODAY
                  HIGH TIDE ... AROUND 3 PM .... MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
                  COSTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH. THIS IS IN PART TO
                  THE OW RESISTANCE OF HAUTE DUNE LINE LEFT BY THE
                  ONSLAUGHT OF THE ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

                  STAY TUNED FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
                  RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
                  STATEMENTS.
                  HOEHLER

                    U.S. G.P.O.:1992-313-153:60485                  C-13

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