Onslow County hurricane response plan

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

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ONSLOW COUNTY

HURRICANE RESPONSE PLAN

JANUARY, 1984

Prepared at the Direction of

Onslow County Office of Emergency Management

and

Onslow County Board of Commissioners

The preparation of this document was financed in part through a
grant produced by the North Carolina Coastal Management Program
through funds provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972,
as amended, which is administered by the office of Coastal Zone
Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

HENRY VON OESEN AND ASSOCIATES, INC.
Consulting Engineers & Planners
611 Princess Street ** P. 0. Drawer 2087
Wilmington, North Carolina 28402

ONSLOW COUNTY HURRICANE RESPONSE PLAN

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

RECORD OF CHANGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I. AUTHORITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

II. REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
III. PURPOSE AND SCOPE . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . .

IV. ORGANIZATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

V. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Vi. WARNING AND ALERT SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

VII. INCREASED READINESS ACTION CHECKLIST . . . . . . . 3

VIII. EVACUATION AREAS, ROUTES, AND SHELTER LOCATIONS 4

IX. REENTRY . . . . * * . . . . . . 5

X. RESPONSIBILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Local . . . . . . . . . . . 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 5

State and Federal Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

XI. COMMUNICATIONS . . a 0 0 0 0 0 0 & 0 . . 0 . . 6

XII. PUBLIC INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

XIII. EXERCISES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

XIV. APPROVAL . . e . . * e . . . o o * . * . . . * 7

Attachment 1 - Line of Succession

Attachment 2 - Warning and Alerting Flow Chart

Attachment 3 - Increased Readiness Action Checklist

Attachment 4 - Conditions/Action Flow Chart

Attachment 5 - Evacuation Areas, Routes, and Shelter
Locations - Map

Attachment SA - Hurricane Evacuation Plan

Appendix A - Memo - Planning and Research Branch
N. C. Department of Transportation

Attachment 6 - American National Red Cros s Agreement

RECORD OF CHANGES

----------------

CHANGE NUMBER DATE OF CHANGE DATE ENTERED CHANGE MADE BY
(SIGNATURE)

ONSLOW COUNTY HURRICANE RESPONSE PLAN

AUTHORITIES

A. North Carolina General Statutes, Chapter 166.

B. Civil Preparedness Resolution for Jacksonville-Onslow.

REFERENCES

A. North Carolina Disaster Relief and Assistance Plan
(NCDR&AP)

B. Jacksonville-Onslow Disaster Operations Plan.

C. Jack sonvi lle-Onslow - American National Red Cross
Agreement.

III. PURPOSE AND SCOPE

A. Purpose: This Plan has been developed to provide for an
orderly and coordinated evacuation of endangered areas to
minimize the effects of hurricanes on residents and
visitors in Onslow County. The Plan provides for the
alerting of selected officials, the evacuation of the
public from danger areas, and designation of shelters for
evacuees. It also provides for reentry into evacuated
areas when the threat to persons is ended.

B. Scope: This Hurricane Evacuation Plan is a single-purpose
contingency plan and is a part of an all encompassing
local disaster operation plan which specifies functional
emergency responsibilities (reference II.B.).

V. ORGANIZATION

A. Evacuation Action: Hurricane evacuation involves all
areas under County jurisdiction and Municipal jurisdic-
tion. As joint action is required by County and Municipal
governments, a joint organization for decision making and
use of resources is needed. A Control Group and a Support
Group are hereby established for this purpose.

B. Control Group:

1. Mission: To exercise overall direction and control of
hurricane evacuation operations including decisions to
institute county-wide increased readiness conditions
and such other actions deemed necessary in response to
the situation.'

1-1-

2. Composition:

a. The Chairman of the County Board of
Commissioners - Group Chairman.

b. The Mayors (or their representatives) of:

(1) Jacksonville
(2) Swansboro
(3) Holly Ridge
(4) Richlands

C. County Emergency Management Coordinator -
Advisor.

3. Line of Succession: In the event that any of the
members of the Control Group are not available, each
primary member will be succeeded by alternates who
will have the responsibility and authority of the
primary member (see Attachment 1).

C. Support Group:

1. Mission: To provide personnel and material resources
for the implementation of preplanned actions and
actions as directed by the Control Group; to provide
direction to personnel engaged in operations; and to
provide information, data, and recommendations to the
Control Group.

2. Composition:

a. County Manager - Group Chief
b. Sheriff
c. Director of Social Services
d. Superintendent of Schools
e. County Health Director
f. County Auditor
g. County Tax Assessor
h. County Fire Marshal
i. Public Information officer
j. Rescue Squad Representation
k. State Highway Patrol Liaison officer
1. Red Cross Liaison officer
m. Jacksonville City Manager
n. Communications

D. Operational Locations: The Control and Support Groups
will be located in the Emergency Operating Center (EOC)
Agriculture Building to facilitate coordination. Should
it become necessary to move the groups to an alternate EOC
location, the new location will be the Carolina Telephone
and Telegraph Office.

-2-

V. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

The Onslow County concept for hurricane evacuation calls for:

A. Early alerting of officials and concerned agencies in the
entire County.

B. Overall direction and decision making by a Control Group.

C. Increased readiness actions taken progressively as the
hurricane approaches and as the threat of injury and
damage increases.

D. Evacuation of residents and visitors on beaches and in
threatened low-lying areas upon decision of the Control
Group.

E. Movement of evacuees to designated and operating public
shelters, or out of Onslow County and the threatened area.

F. Mass care for evacuees in predesignated shelters in
accordance with agreements.

G. Reentry of evacuees to evacuated areas when authorized by
the Control Group and when the hurricane threat has passed
or damage assessments indicate that reentry is feasible.

H. Local governments request State and/or Federal assistance,
as necessary, before or after a hurricane (see NCDR&AP,
Annexes D, E, F and G).

VI. WARNING AND ALERT SYSTEM

The system for dissemination of hurricane watches and warnings
and for notification of departments and populace that the
evacuation plan will be executed, is shown as a flow chart
(see Attachment 2).

VII. INCREASED READINESS ACTION CHECKLIST

(See Attachment 3 - Checklist and Attachment 4 - Condition/
Action Flow Chart).

A. Readiness Conditions: The following increased readiness
conditions are established:

Condition 5 Hurricane Season (June 1 - November 30)

Condition 4 Alert - Hurricane Advisory

Condition 3 Hurricane Watch - Approximately 48 hours
to forcasted landfall

-3-

Condition 2 Hurricane Warning Approximately 24
hours to forcasted landfall

Condition 1 Twelve hours or less to forecasted land-
fall

Condition 0 Landfall

Reentry Threat removed or damage assessment
allows

B. The Control Group will declare the condition. The Support
Group will implement actions for each condition when
announced.

VIII. EVACUATION AREAS, ROUTES AND SHELTER LOCATIONS

(See Attachment 5).

A. General:

1. Evacuation routes and designated shelters for beach
areas are as indicated on Attachment 5.

2. Other residents wishing to seek shelter (mobile home
residents or persons living in any structure which
does not provide adequate protection) should go to the
nearest designated shelter.

B. Shelter:

1. A shelter is defined as a predesignated structure of
sufficient strength to withstand hiqh winds, which is
located in an area not subject to flooding or storm
surge and which will safeguard a given number of
evacuees.

2. Onslow County is responsible for providing shelter for
all residents and visitors in Onslow County. Onslow
County will also provide shelter for residents of
Pender or other surrounding counties to the maximum
extent possible.

3. Shelters will be operated by the Onslow County Chapter
of the American National Red Cross supplemented by
school system personnel if needed as per agreement
(reference II.C).

4. Shelters will be opened only on an as-needed basis.
Locations of operating shelters will be announced on
local radio stations.

-4-

5. Evacuees will be instructed to bring blankets, light
sleeping cotst battery operated radios, flashlights,
and special medicinal and dietary needs (including
baby needs) for the duration of the shelter period.

6. Persons living on West Onslow Beach may take shelter
in Topsail High School or Topsail Elementary School in
Pender County if they so desire.

IX. REENTRY

A. Upon cancellation of all hurricane warnings and watches
which include Onslow County and when no damage has been
experienced, the Control Group will authorize reentry to
all evacuated areas.

B. When hurricane damages have resulted, reentry to evacuated
areas will be based upon damage assessments in any rescue
or other relief operations in progress. Reentry will be
authorized by Control Group to specific evacuated areas
and under conditions specified.

C. Decisions of the Control Group will be broadcast by the
P.I.O.

X. RESPONSIBILITIES

A. Local:

1. Control Group: Overall direction (as directed in
Paragraph IV.B).

2. Support Group: As shown in responsibility blocks on
the Increased Readiness Action Checklist, Attachment
3.

3. County Emergency Management Coordinator:

a. Serves as advisor to the Control Group.

b. Coordinates actions of the Support Group and
operaUi'ons involvIng local nongovernment
organizations and operations of forces from
outside the County.

c. Operates the County EOC.

d. Furnishes Situation Reports to the State EOC.

e. Developes and conducts exercises to test and
evaluate this Plan.

-5-

B. State and Federal Agencies:

1. National Weather Service: Provides hurricane watches,
warnings, and related weather information.

2. U.S. Coast Guard:

a. Provides warnings to ships and boats in affected
coastal areas.

b. Assists in coastal evacuation upon request.

3. Commander, Marine_Corps Base ._CamR_L!jjeune
Commander, Marine C s Air Station: Maintains
liaison and coordina e a-ction Co-dnty EOC.

4. State Highway Patrol:

a. Operates State Warning Point and passes weather
information via Police Information Network (PIN).

b. Responsible for traffic control on State Highway
Systems.

5. State Division of Emergency nagement:

a. Receives requests for assistance, coordinates
State actions, and arranges for assistance from
Federal agencies.

b. Area "C" Emergency Management Coordinator:

(1) Assists in coordination of evacuation
efforts.

(2 Assists in coordination of State assistance.

XI. COMMUNICATIONS

A. Communications will be in accordance with Annex B, NCDR&AP
and appropriate local plans.

B. The Sheriff operates the County Severe Weather Warning
System and Traffic Control Points.

C. The Communications Officer will insure communications
between the Control and Support Groups and shelters.

XII. PUBLIC INFORMATION

A. The Public Information officer (PIO) will provide informa-
tion to the public via the news media and otherwise based
upon decisions of the Control Group to include,the
f ollowing:

-6-

1. Precautionary/preparatory measures recommended for the
public.

2. Evacuation instructions.

3. Reentry instructions.

4. Damage information.

B. warnings to the public are disseminated by the news media
(radio, TV and newspapers), from National Weather Service
Bulletins, and advisories and statements as received
directly and as provided through the warning system.

XIII. EXERCISES

An exercise will be conducted annually to test and evaulate
this Plan.

XIV. APPROVAL

Submitted: This Plan is Approved by
the Undersigned:

Emergency Management CoordinatoF Onsl -County Board of
Commissioners

Mayo@, Jacksonville, N.C. Mayor,---Holly Ria-ge, N.C.

Mayorp Swansboro, N.C. Mayor, Rfe-hra-nds, N.C.

-7-

ATTACFiMENT NO. 1

CONTROL GROUP

LINE OF SUCCESSION

To assure continuity of responsibility for governmental functions of direction
and control of emergency operational efforts, the following lines of succession
to offices are established:

1. Chairman of the Onslow a. Vice Chairman b. In the absence the
County Board Chairman and Vice
Chairman, the
members present
may choose a
temporary chairman

2. Mayor of Jacksonville a. Mayor Pro Tempore b. The next senior
member of the
council

3. Mayor of Swansboro a. The Town Commissioner b. The Chief of
that received the most Police
votes

4. Mayor of Holly Ridge a. Mayor Pro Tempore b. Present Town
Commissioners
elect temporary
mayor

5. Mayor of Richlands a. Mayor Pro Tempore b. Town councilman
receiving the
largest vote count

6. Emergency Management a. Operations Chief b. Communications
Coordinator Chief

ATTACHMENT NO. 2
WARNING AND ALERTING FLOW CHART

NWS RADIO/TV
(ORIGINATES) WEATHERWIRE
SUBSCRIBERS

STATE COUNTY WARNING WARNING
WARNING POINT (SHERIFF'S SYSTEM-
POINT MUNICIPAL OFFICE) NOTE (1)
(SWP) WARNING
POINT
(POLICE MUNICIPAL
DEPT WARNING
SYSTEM
NOTE (1)
STATE AREA ALERTS
EOC COORDINATORS 0-Chm. County Bd. of
(RALEIGH) Commissioners
0- Mayors
P, Sheriff
b- EM Coordinator P U B L I C
ALERTS ALERTS ALERTS P-County Manager
.0-Supt. of Schools
.P. State Officials Local EM 0- Mayor County Health
@and Departments Coords. in .10-Chief of Director
.P. American Nat'l. all affected Police .0-Director of Social
Red Cross - and adjacent Fire Services
Carolinas Div. counties Chief 0- Rep. County Vol
A,. Federal Agencies Other Fire Department@
(N.C. Offices) Dept. Rep. County
ii. Local Highway Heads Rescue Squads
Patrol Red Cross Officer
Other Members of
This Control and
Support Group

NOTE (1) County and municipal warning systems disseminate warnings to the public by use of radio/TV bulletins, news-
paper extras, handbills, signs, loud speaker or other aural systems, and door-to-door. Law enforcement,
rescue squads and volunteer citizens' organizations used to spread warnings when activated by control group.

A G E N C P 1 0 COUNTY FIRE MARSHAL CHEF OF COUNTY RESCUE SQUAD AMERICAN NATIONAL RED
bilities: Re!2 b1litles: OR OTHER RESCUE SQUAD OFFICIAL CROSS LOCAL CHAPTER
- jbilities! Responsibilitiest
.e or approve &L1 - [email protected] r. Operate des - ed Red
re tighting 0. @.nat. provision of 3Lgnat
'eleases. suport throughout the County rescue support operation. Cross shelt rs.
(paid and. volunteer). provide aTioulance service to Provide oth:r Red Cross
- Assist sheriff upon request.. transport nonanbulatory assistance.
INCREASED persons.
REWINESS
ACTION

COMI17C

BEGINNIK
HUI:tRICANE jimination to public
icane safety rules
shelter lc@mtiom.

Comm(

72 Wt

A"EMinue dissimination
he above.

03WITI iminate special 1. Gas up all vehicles. 1. Gas up all vehicles. 1 . make initial contact
@@;ctions to with superintendent
ids.; 2. Check all equipnent. 2. Check all equipment. of schools on us*
48 HOUIV1 Ing
existing schools as
HURRICANE shelters as planned.
2. Designate and assign
gersonnel to specific
helters .

aerate Condition 4. Mobilize personnel. 1. Mobilize personnel. 1. Mobilize personnel.
2. Render assistance 2. Move nonan'bulatory personnel. 2. Brief shelter ffanagers.
requested, 3. Coordinate rescue operations. 3. Conduct joint inventory
COND Ob 3. Coordinate fire fighting 4. Assiqn representative to EOC. of shelters with school
activities. S. Provide other assistance as Officials.
24 HOURS 4. Assign representative to requested. 4. Repr6sentative nan EOC.
EDC. 5. Upon EOC direction,
HURRICANE W open*and operate
shelters.
6. Keep EX informed of
shelter situation.

Anue dissimination
CONDrrlCrhelter loc4tiopon
mation routes.
12 H0URS OR

EVACLIATIC

iiininate special
CONDMCtructions from
irol Group.
*LAND FA

@ase notices of 1. Operate shelters as
iged areas, etc., long as necessary.
reentry instruc-
Render assistance to
needy pe-.

ATTACHMENT NO. 3

ATTACHMENT NO. 4
CONDITIONS/ACTIONS FLOW CHART

72-HOUR CONDITION 4
ESTIMATE ACTIONS Hurricane Threat Removed o. o. o-, Po. Return to Normal
FROM ADVISORY

HURRICANE
WATCH OR CONDITION 3
48-HOUR ACTIONS --- Watch Cancel led op. po. po. pp. io. o. o. o- Return to Normal
ESTIMATE

NWS
WARNINGS

HURRICANE '-No Watch lo, Return to Normal
WARNING OR CONDITION 2 Warning Cancelled Hold in Watch Return to
24-HOUR ACTIONS *Watch Reinstated * Condition 2 Cancelled Normal
ESTIMATE

HURRICANE CONDITION I No-No Watch", 0, 0, Reentry Return to Normal
WARNING OR ;w- Warning Cancelled
12-HOUR ACTIONS
ESTIMATE EVACUATION Watch 10. Hold in Watch 01 Reentry ,Return to
Reinstated Condition 1 Cancelled Normal

CONDITION 0 DAMAGE SELECTIVE RECOVERY
LANDFALL ASSESSMENT REENTRY REPAIR
RESTORATION

ATTACHMENT NO. 5

EVAUCATION AREAS, ROUTES, AND SHELTER LOCATIONS - MAP

(Note: Also see Attachment 5A Hurricane Evacuation Plan,

following)

ATTACHMENT 5A

HURRICANE EVACUATION PLAN

I. GENERAL

Certain areas of Onslow County can be termed high risk areas
and should be evacuated prior to the time a hurricane strikes.
The most vulnerable areas are the barrier islands (beach areas)
and low lying areas adjacent to the sounds and marshes between the
barrier islands and the mainland. The only developed beach
community in the County is West Onslow Beach and most of the
attention relative to the evacuation of residents or occupants
must concentrate on this highly vulnerable area. Attention must
also be given to sound front developed areas and communities such
as Sneads Ferry and Swansboro; however, multiple evacuation routes
are generally available and the areas are relatively accessible to
high ground.

Other areas, such as portions of the City of Jacksonville are
flood prone, (either from rising water or high rainfall runoff),
and limited evacuation of these areas may be required. Camp
LeJeune is also subject to similar flooding problems in some
areas, but local military authorities will manage this problem
within this own resources; however, close coordination should be
effected between Onslow County and U.S. Marine Corps Base
authorities.

II. EVACUATION PLAN

The general plan for evacuation of threatened areas of the
County are briefly summarized in the Onslow County Hurricane
Evacuation Plan (Attachment No. 5 of the Onslow County Hurricane
Response Plan). This single page flyer is attached hereto and is
also available for widespread distribution to interested and/or
affected citizens throughout the County. The circumstances
requiring evacuation, evacuation routes and emergency shelters are
clearly depicted on the plan.

III. EVACUATION CONSIDERATIONS

As mentioned above, evacuation of County areas other than the
barrier island beaches does not appear to represent a difficult
problem. Some access roads are low-lying and persons living below
approximately six (6) feet above mean sea level (m.s.l.) should
seek higher ground before flood tides reach that level. The
Swansboro, Sneads Ferry and intervening low-lying mainland areas
fall in this category. Generally, evacuation of these areas three
(3) to five (5) hours before a storm is scheduled to strike the
mainland should provide adequate lead time for safe evacuation of
these areas. Development densities in these areas is low, so

Attachment 5A, Continued

traffic flow or road conjestion should not represent a problem.
Persons living in these areas should be prepared to evacuate on
short notice when Condition 1 is announced.

The barrier island (beach) areas are an entirely different
situation. Access routes are restricted and in some cases
inferior. Although the Onslow County coastline is fairly long
(approximately 27 miles), less than half of this (about 12 miles)
is developed or inhabited by permanent or seasonal residents. The
Hammocks Beach State Park island is undeveloped and should be
evacuated and closed completely during a threatened hurricane
storm period. The coastline within the Camp LeJeune Marine Base
is under the jurisdiction of military authorities. Thus, the
primary area requiring careful evacuation planning is West Onslow
Beach. The remainder of this discussion focuses on that area.

IV. EVACUATION TIMES ANALysisL-/

The amount of time it takes to safely evacuate an area depends
on the level of development and number of people in the area at
any one time. It depends on the condition of roads and bridges
along the evacuation route. It also depends on the attitudes of
local residents and visitors and the strength of a particular
storm.

Evacuation time has four components: mobilization time,
travel time, queuing delay time, and pre-landfall hazards time.

Mobilization time is that period between the issuance of the
evacuation order and the departure time of the last vehicle
from the vulnerable area. It depends to a large extent on the
attitudes and response time of residents. Travel time is the
period necessary for the vehicles to travel the length of the
evacuation route at an anticipated operating speed assuming no
traffic delays (queuing). Queuing delay--time is defined as
the time spent by vehicles in t-raf-fic jams resulting when the
capacities of the evacuation routes are exceeded by the number
of vehicles entering those routes.

1./ William D. McElyea, David J. Brower, David R. Godschalk.
Before the Storm; Management Development to Reduce Hurricane
@amages. Ocean and Coastal Ecology Program Center f6r UrbaiT
and Regional Studies, UNC/Chapel Hill; August 1982.

Attachment 5A, Continued

Mobilization time, travel time, and queuing delay time
together consititute the community's "clearance time" -- the
total time needed to move all evacuees to temporary shelter
once an evacuation order is issued. Pre-landfall hazards time
is the time before the eye of the'hurricane reaches the
community when the storm surge or sustained high winds render
evacuation routes impassable. The National Hurricane Center
issues warnings based on its predictions of the time the eye
is expected to reach land. However, the storm surge and
sustained winds can strike the community hours before the eye
does. This pre-landfall hazards time cannot be used for
safely moving evacuees; it is greater for more intense storms.

Estimating these various components of evacuation time remains
a complicated task due to uncertainty regarding the intensity,
timing, and other characteristics of any particular storm and
uncertainty regarding the willingness of local residents and
visitors to evacuate. Current estimation techniques involve:

1. estimating storm surge levels, wind speeds, and their time
of arrival before the eye's landfall for storms of
different intensities;

2. identifying points along the evacuation route that are
subject to flooding;

3. estimating the total number of people and automobiles that
must be evaucated;

4. estimating the carrying capacity of roads along the
evacuation route;

5. identifying any bottlenecks or other points along the
route that could delay traffic;

6. estimating the timing of traffic movement and traffic
levels along the route; and,

7. estimating the time it will take people to respond to an
evacuation order.

Much of the evacuation time needed boils down to the level of
development, resident population, and visitor population in areas
that need to be evacuated, relative to the carrying capacity of
the evacuation route. If the level of development of high hazard
areas exceeds the route's capacity for safe and timely evacuation,
the community can expect to suffer numerous casualties during a
major storm. Local officials should bear in mind that the
National Hurricane Center's hurricane warnings (usually used as
the signal to evacuate) are issued 12 hours before the eye is

Attachment 5A, Continued

expected to hit land. Flooding and hurricane-strength winds can
precede the landfall by several hours, depending on the storm's
size and intensity.

The Planning and Research Branch of the North Carolina
Department of Transportation (DOT), (Larry R. Goode), prepared an
internal memorandum for evacuation of Onslow and Pender Counties
(beach communities). A copy of this memo is attached hereto as
Appendix A. This brief study estimates an evacuation time of 7 to
9 hours for the beach complex of Topsail (Ashe) Island. The
primary problem relative to the West Onslow Beach area is that the
analysis credits only 1,300 people evacuating northward from the
area over N.C. Highway 210. Never-the-less, the analysis gives
indication of the extended time required to evacuate the area.

Evacuation time estimating techniques are further refined by
John R. Stone in his U.N.C. sea grant working paper 83-2 entitled
"Hurricane Emergency Planning: Estimating Evacuation Times for
Non-Metropolitan Coastal CommuniC1_es.".i_-_/ This excellent analysi-s
closely parallels but refines the DOT estimate approach referenced
above. It also provides a short cut calculation method for simple
evacuation networks like West Onslow Beach. Textural references
and the evacuation time calculating technique in the following
subparagraphs are borrowed from Stone's works.

West Onslow Beach Evacuation Time Estimate

A. Evacuation Area: West Onslow Beach is a barrier island which
forms the southeastern border of Onslow County facing the
Atlantic Ocean. Elevations range from 0 to a little over 20
feet m.s.l. at its highest point. The width ranges from less
than one quarter to just over one half mile. The area lies
entirely within the hurricane flood zone. There is a single
two lane road (N.C. Highway) running north to south over the
entire length of the island. It is connected to the mainland
by a relatively new high level fixed span two lane bridge
about four miles from the north end of the island (New River
Inlet). Route 210 also extends southward (through Surf City)
with connections to the mainland over a two lane swing bridge
at an elevation of about 14 feet above the Atlantic

2./ Also included as reference 11/ in a report to the Onslow
County Board of Commisioner-g-entited: Hurricane Storm
Mitigation and Post-Disaster Reconstruction PUT@@__f_o_r Onslow
County, North Carolina (January 1984), by Henry von Oesen and
Associates, Inc.

Attachment 5A, Continued

Intracoastal Waterway (AIWW). For several reasons, it is
recommended that all West Onslow Beach traffic evacuate
northward as shown on the evacuation plan map.

B. Hurricane Scenario: In 1954, when Hurricane Hazel hit North
Caroling; a high-;@ater mark from the tidal surge (excluding
wave action) of 16 feet above mean sea level was recorded at
the South Brunswick County region. This is the surge expected
from a Category 4 storm which could similarly effect the
Topsail Island area. A storm of this magnitude could be
expected there roughly once every 100 years. Assuming the
hurricane eye from such a storm crossed over West Onslow
Beach, it is likely that nearly 90 percent of the flood zone
would be flooded. The possibility of flooding will be
increased by the likelihood of torrential rains and the
primary evacuation route would be completely inundated.

C. Hazards Time: A complete analysis for the surge and gale-
forc@ wind hazards time components of evacuation time would
require a computer simulation of the storm. However, prior
detailed analysis descriptions of a Category 4 storm suggest
that low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water as
early as three to five hours before the hurricane eye arrives.
This estimate for ro@idwwa`yinundation time is consistent with a
storm which moves at a typical 10 mph forward speed and has a
surge that extends about 30 miles out from the hurricane eye.

An investigation and inspection of the evacuation route (NC
Highway 210) reveals that portions of the road are at eleva-
tions of about 6 to 7 feet above mean seal level.
Fortuitously, the lowest points are at the southern boundary
(at the Surf City north limit) and along much of highly
developed north end of the beach area between the bridge
crossing point and New River Inlet. In many areas, the road
passes extremely close to the ocean (where low dunes may or
may not exist), which further increases the roads
vulnerability to tide and wave attack. Finally, the immediate
approach road section to the high level bridge crossing is at
an elevation below 8 feet m.s.l. Thus, the escape access to
the bridge itself could be inundated relatively early in the
storm period. The excellent new high level bridge represents
no inpediment to rapid evacuation of controlled vehicular
traffic.

Gale force winds and blinding rain can also combine to make it
virtually impossible to drive a vehicle on the evacuation
route. Wind analysis for barrier islands and coastal areas in
Florida suggest that gale-force winds may precede landfall of
the eye by as much as six hours.

Att.qr-hment 5A, Continued

Based on the above, a cut-off time of 3 to 5 hours is used in
preparing this estimate.

D. Mobilization Time: As previously mentioned, mobilization time
for a communitTmay vary somewhat. However, actual data
suggests that it may take over five hours for everyone to
begin the evcuation. A value of three to four hours would
find 80 percent to 90 percent of the evacuees on their way and
is used in this analysis.

E. Travel Time: Evacuation travel is based on the length of the
evacuation route and the assumed uninterrupted operating speed
of the evacuation vehicles. Assuming an evacuee lives at the
southern end of NC 210 on West Onslow Beach (at Surf City Town
limits), he or she must travel six and one half (6-1/2) miles
to reach the bridge. It is another seven miles to Dixon
School (recommended shelter), giving a total evacuation
distance of about 14 miles. Assuming storm conditions and
evcuation traffic, yet uninterrupted travel, an average
operating speed of 35 mph could be maintained on the two-way,
two-lane rural roads of the evacuation area. The "free-flow"
travel time is, therefore:

Travel Time = Distance/Speed
= 14 miles/35 mph
= 0.40 hours
= 24 minutes

This estimate does not include queuing delay which is
determined below.

F. Queuing Time De -lay: It is anticipated that all of the
evacuees will originate on West Onslow Beach. It is possible
that some occupants of Surf City and Topsail Beach to the
south may opt to attempt to evacuate northward over Route 210
through West Onslow Beach; however, this should be discouraged
and evacuees from those communities should continue to exit
the area over the swing span bridge and N.C. Highway 50 that
serves these communities. Additionally, Highway 210 may be
flooded early in the vicinity north of the Surf City Town
limits as previously mentioned.

The primary constraint to rapid evacuation of West Onslow
Beach residents and visitors is the limited carrying capacity
of the principal evacuation route, N.C. Highway 210. As
mentioned in paragraph C above, extensive portions of this
road are at elevations as low as 6 feet m.s.l. and
consequently may become impassable during early tide surge and
gale conditions that may exist several hours before the
hurricane makes a landfall. This coupled with the marginal

Attachment 5A# Continued

condition of the road will influence queuing delay times for
the area.

The Onslow County Land Use Plan projects a maximum population
density of West Onslow Beach in 1990 of 10,335 people. Based
on the rapid growth experienced in the area in the past five
years, this projection is considered to be quite low; however,
for purposes of this analysis, a peak population of 10,000 is
used.

In order to estimate the queuing delay time during a
particular time period of the evacuationt the traffic demand
and the restrictive road capacity must be known. For the
purposes of this analysis, the following will be assumed:

1. 10,000 persons evacuate.

2. The average automobile occupancy is 2.5 persons per
vehicle.

3. 20 percent of the evacuees leave before the order is
given.

4. The remaining 80 pecent of the evacuees leave over a 3.5
hour period.

5. Traffic control officers will be stationed at inter-
sections thereby mitigating the usual intersection
capacity constraints.

6. Intersection turning traffic is negligible compared to the
evacuation traffic.

7. Traffic moves at "level of service D to E," with one lane
for evacuation and one lane for emergency vehicles.

The evacuation rate or traffic demand is thus,

Evacuation Traffic Demand = (No. of evacuees/vehicle
occupancy) x (1 percent
remaining after order) x
O/evacuation period)

ETD = (10,000/2.5) (.80) (1/3.5)
= 900 vehicles/hour (3,200 vehicles in 3.5 hours)

Attachment 5A, Continued

Under the planning assumptions outlined above, DOT sources
indicate Route 210 should have a carrying capacity about 900
to 1,000 vehicles per hour under optimum conditions; however,
the 22-foot width and marginal road condition would reduce
this to an assumed ideal capacity of 550 to 825 vehicles per
hour. If it is further assumed that under storm conditions,
this ideal capacity will be reduced by fluctuation in traffic
demand, wind blown debris and winds, it is estimated that the
actual evacuation capacity will be only half (50 percent) of
the ideal capacity. The road carrying capacity becomes a
"bottleneck" in the evacuation process. Thus:

Evacuation Capacity = Ideal capacity x 0.50

Evacuation Capacity = 275 to 400 vehicles per hour (assume
300)

Based on accepted prior study data, the maximum amou nt of
individual vehicular delay is given by the following formula:

Queuing delay time = (Duration of bottleneck) x
(I - Bottleneck capacity/average
demand)

Hence,

Queuing delay time = (3.5) (1 - 300/900) = 2 hours

Note: The new high level bridge carrying capacity exceeds the
road carrying capacity by a considerable degree and is not
considered to be a restricting factor.

G. Total Evacuation Time: The total evacuation time is the
summation or the follow-ing components:

Cut-off Time 3 - 5 hours
Mobilization Time 3 - 4 hours
Travel Time 0.5 hours
Queuing Delay Time 2 - 3 hours

Total 8 - 13 hours

V. DISCUSSION

As explained in the previously referenced Stone report, the
evacuation time estimate of 8 to 13 hours is based on a Category 4
hurricane scenario and is dependent on a number of assumptions.
These include the assumed number of evacuees, auto occupancy rate,
community response, roadway inundation time, to name but a few.

Attachment 5A, Continued

Changing the assumptions will change the time estimates. It is
interesting to note, however, that certain tradeoffs exist. For
example, much importance is placed on community awareness and
rapid response to evacuation orders. Unfortunately, it is felt
that a sensitivity analysis would show that an earlier
mobilization of the evacuees will lead to higher traffic demands
and more queuing delay. What is gained in response time is lost
to traffic delay if bottlenecks exist on the evacuation route.

Looking specifically at the West Onslow estimate of 8 to 13
hours evacuation time, it is seen that the figure is consistent
with estimates for roughly similar island situations in Lee
County, Florida (7) . The estimate is also consistent with the
Holden Beach evacuation plan which indicates that evacuation
orders will be issued when a hurricane is within 12 hours of
landfall.

Finally, further analysis of the future development potential
and ultimate development density of West Onslow Beach indicates
that the peak summer population could reach well over 30,000
people. This population increase would seriously impact the above
estimate and extend projected evacuation times.

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APPENDIX A

MEMORANDUM FROM LARRY R. GOODE
I PLANNING AND RESEARCH BRANCH
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (DOT)
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APPENDIX A

STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

RALEIGH 27611
JAMES B. HUNT, JR
GOVERNOR DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS
WILLIAM R. ROBERSON, JR March 11, 1983
SECRETARY

MEMORANDUM TO: Mr. Gerald Fleming
Safety and Emergency Planning

FROM: Larry R. Goode, Ph.D., P.E.
Project Engineer
Planning and Research Branch

SUBJECT: Peak Season Population Estimates for Onslow and
Pender County and Estimated Evacuation Time

Per your request we have made peak season projections for Onslow
and Pender Counties based on the number of dwelling units in the
area. The peak summer population is approximately 11,300 people.

Based on a peak summer population of 11,300 people, an estimated
evacuation time of 7 to 10 hours hours been determined. Attached is
a report documenting analysis performed in determining peak summer
population and total evacuation time.

If you have any questions concerning this matter, please let me
know.

LRG/dc

Attachment

cc: Mr. T.L. Waters

APPENDIX A

Appi@ndix A, Continued

ESTIMATED EVACUATION TIME FOR ONSLOW AND PENDER COUNTIES

Evacuation Area

The barrier island beaches off the coast of Onslow and
Pender counties include Topsail Beach, Surf City, Del Mar
Beach and West Onslow Beach. The island is a vacation*spot
for up to 11,300 people during the peak summer season.
Elevation on the island ranges from 0 to 22 feet. In the
event a Category 4 storm hit the region the island would
have to be evacuated. Areas south of Surf City would be
evacuated via NC 50. Areas north of Surf City would be
routed on NC 210.

Total Evacuation Time

The components of total evacuation time are hazards
timel mobilization time, travel time and queuing delay
times. The following assumptions are made in this analysis:

1) 11,300 persons to evacuate
10,000 via NC 50
1,300 via NC 210

2) Average automobile occupancy is 2.5 persons per vehicle.,

20% of the evacuees leave before order is given.

4) The remaining 80% of the evacuees leave over a 3.5 hour
period.

5) Traffic control officers will be stationed at intersec-
tions, thereby reducing usual intersection capacity
constraints.

6) Contra flow traffic is negligible compared to evacuation
traffic.

7) Traffic moves at "level of Services D to Ell.

8) 3% of traffic is recreation vehicles.

9) Two laiies ooe- way oii all evactiatioll routes.

10) Evacuation takes place daylight hours.

Hazards Time

Heavy rain, flooding and gale force winds occurring
before the eye of the storm hits way cut evacuation routes.
The hazards time component of eva(-..-uatioii time is three to
five hours before the eye of the. hurricane arrives.

-Appenodix A, Continued

Mobilization Time

It is safe to assume that 80 to 90% of the evacuees
will be on their way in three to four hours.

Travel Time

Evacuation travel time is based on the length of the
evacuation route with an average "free-flow" operating speed
of 35 mph.

Travel time = 210 miles @ 35 mph .5 hour

Queuin DelayTime

When the evacuation traffic demand exceeds th e capacity
of the evacuation route a queue will form.
Evacuation Traffic (Number of evacuees) X (% remaining X (1/ evacu ation
Demand (ETD) (Vehicle occupancy) after order) period)

Capacity )000(number of lanes)(volume to capacity ratio)(lateral
clearance factor)(truck factor)
Under the assumed conditions the traffic.demand will not
exceed the capacity of any of the escape routes and there
will be no queuing delay..

Total Evacuation Time
PJ Cut Of f Time 3-5
r/11 Mobilization Time 3.5 hours
Travel Time .5 hours
Queuing Delay Time 0 hours
Total 7-9 hours

ATTACHMENT 6

JOINT AGREEMENT BETWEEN LOCAL AMERICAN NATIONAL RED CROSS CHAPTERS
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES/CIVIL PREPAREDNESS ORGANIZATIONS
JOINT OPERATING AGREEMENT

Between

ONSLOW COUNTY
(Chapter)

of the

AMERICAN NATIONAL RED CROSS
COUNTY OF ONSLOW and the STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
(Political SuBdivisiog)

Relating to Natural Disasters

I. PURPOSE

This operating arrangement describes the respective
responsibilities and roles of the Onslow County Chapter of the
American National Red Cross (hereinafter referred to as ANRC) and
the County of Onslow, State of North Carolina in preparedness
plans and operations for natural disaster emergency services.
Through collaboration, the resources of the ANRC and the County of
Onslow are brought to bear for the relief of persons affected by
natural disasters or other emergencies.

II. RESPONSIBILITIES IN NATURAL DISASTERS

A. The American National Red Cross. The act of Congress
constituting the Red Cross cRapter reTuired the Red Cross to
undertake relief activities for the purpose of mitigating
suffering caused by disaster and obligates the Red Cross to
develop and carry out measures to prevent such suffering. Public
Law 93-288 in no way affects the legal status nor restricts the
authority and purposes of the American National Red Cross as set
forth in that ACT. In carrying out the purposes of Public Law
93-288, and Sec. 303, (b), (3), or subsequent disaster
legislation, Federal, state or local government may, by contract
or otherwise, accept and utilize the services and facilities of
the Red Cross, or may render through the Red Cross any assistance
authorized by that Act, such as medicines, food, and other
consumable supplies or emergency assistance.

Attachment 6, Continued

Aid to disaster victims is not dependent upon a Presidential
declaration of a major disaster, but is provided regardless of the
size of that catastrophe or the number of people involved.
Through a program of disaster preparedness and relief by ANRC
chapters, divisions, and areas throughout the Country, ANRC
provides disaster victims with food, clothing, shelter, first aid,
and supplementary medical, nursing, and hospital care and meets
other urgent immediate needs. This help may be provided on the
bases of mass care in shelters and at feeding stations and aid
stations and also provides food and first aid services for
emergency workers. The Red Cross provides blood and blood
.products for disaster victims, and handles inquiries from
concerned individuals outside the disaster area.

Help for disaster victims may also be provided on an
individual family basis, with funds or purchase orders issued to
families for food, clothing, medical care, 'health items, essential
household furnishings, urgently needed occupational supplies and
equipment, emergency rentals for housing, transportation and
temporary minor repairs to homes so that they can be reoccupied.
The Red Cross will assist in providing information and federal and
other resources available for additional assistance to disaster
victims and will refer families to such resources. The Red Cross
will assist families in assembling needed information for
applications for such aid and will help them in processing their
applications if the families ask for such assistance. When there
is no Presidential Declaration of a major disaster, or when such
declaration has been made but a family is not eligible for
government benefits, Red Cross assistance may also include other
recovery needs in addition to the emergency help already given. in
such cases, the need for help will be determined by the individual
casework process. All Red Cross disaster aid is on a grant basis,
with no request for or expectation of repayment.

Because administrative responsibility and financial control
are inseparable, the Red Cross requires that all funds utilized by
it in extending relief will be expended in accordance with its
established policies.

B. Government:

1. The maintenance or restoration of normal government
services and facilities.

2. The extension or augmentation of certain normal
government services when such extensions or augmentation is
consistent or compatible with such normal community services.
These services include:

Attachment 6, Continued

a. Warning and evacuation.

b. Search and rescue.

c. Police and fire protection.

d. Emergency medical, public health, and sanitation.

e. Identification and disposition of the dead,
including operation of temporary morgues.

f. Institutional care for the sick, aged, and
orphaned.

g. Survey and damage assessment.

h. Engineering and public work.

i. Designation of hazardous structures and area.

j. Debris removal from public property.

k. Public welfare.

1. Utilities.

m. Supply, transportation, and communications.

n. Manpower.

0. Immediate notification to all departments and
agencies providing assistance when a-disaster is imminent
or occuring.

p. Coordination and determination of priorities in
allocation and use of available local resources and
requests for support through other government or private
agency channels.

C. Red Cross Relations With The Federal Disaster Assistance
Administration, State and Local Governments:

1. The Red Cross will usually have on-going working
relationships for disaster preparedness and relief with state
and local governments. Because the Red Cross responds
immediately following a disaster's occurence, the organization
will often be operational before a Presidential Declaration of
a major disaster is made and will be working with the state
and local governments before a FCO (Federal Coordinating
Officer) of FDAA is designated. While the Red Cross will keep

Attachment 6, Continued

the FCO fully informed as to the working arrangements involved
in a specific disaster situation, the ANRC will continue its
direct relationships with the state and local governments.

2. FDAA Disaster Assistance Centers. The Red Cross will
provide appropriate volunteers and/or staff to give direct
service to disaster victims at all FDAA disaster assistance
centers when they are established. However, if the Red Cross
has opened disaster service centers in the disaster area prior
to a Presidential Declaration and/or prior to the opening of
FDAA Centers, the Red Cross will continue to operate as many
of its separate centers as necessary unless facilities and
convenience to disaster victims are adequate in the FDAA
center to accomodate the number of Red Cross relief personnel
and disaster victims involved

III. COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH PUBLIC AUTHORITIES

The Red Cross cooperates with all federal, state and local
agencies who have any responsibilty for rendering disaster relief
assistance to the disaster victims. The Red Cross is willing to
accept commissions from governments and coordinate its relief
effort with designated agencies. This may include acting as Agent
for governmental units under mutually agreed upon conditions.

SIGNATORY:

Coo-rd-1-n-aF&E-6-f-CO'll Pre5@regn-e-g's- ARC Cha@ter Chairman
Emergency Operations

Date Appro-ve Date Approved

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