Hurricane evacuation decision making guide Levy County

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

COASTAL ZONE

9,NMRMATION CENTER

HV
635.5
H873
1984

Prepared by the WOTHLACDOCHEE REMMAL PLANNING COUNCOL

HURRICANE EVACUATION

DECISION MAKING GUIDE:

LEVY COUNTY

Prepared by the

Withlacoochee Regional Planning Council

July, 1984

The preparation of this report was primarily sponsored
by a grant from the U. S. office of Coastal Management,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and
the Florida Office of Coastal Management, Department
of Environmental Regulation through the Coastal Zone
Management Act of 1972, as amended. Supplemental
funding was provided by the Florida Department of
Community Affairs.

WITHLACOOCHEE REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCIL

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Citrus County

Wilbur H. Langley, Sr.
N.R."Nick" Bryant
**S.H. "Sid" Kennedy*
***Cha rles A. Black

Hernando County

*Frank Fish, Secretary
***Ralph Shepard
**Charles P. Fagan
Henry D. Ledbetter

Levy County

**W.S. "Sammy" Cason
J.L. Townsend
***Kathryn P. Harris, Chairwoman*

Marion County

Roy Abshier
Bruce Bartlett
**Marianthe Coppedge
***Robert A. Schwalb, Jr.
***Nicholas Mansito, Jr.
***Eugene A. Poole, Vice-Chrm.

City of Ocala

*Sally Ann Knope**

Sumter County

**G.H. Tompkins
*W. Tom Blackmon
***Eunice M. Neville

*Executive Committee
"Municipal Representative
***Governor Appointees

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER PAGE

INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

I QUICK REFERENCE GUIDE . . . . . . . . . . . 2

II EXTENT OF EVACUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

III PUBLIC SHELTER CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . 18

IV EVACUATION TIMES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

V WARNING INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

vi REGIONAL COORDINATIVE MECHANISM . . . . . . 34

VII LOCAL COORDINATIVE MECHANISM . . . . . . ... 41

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

1 Hurricanes Generated by SPLASH . . . . . . . . . . 7

2 Vulnerability Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3 Levy County Evacuating Population At Risk and
Evacuation Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

4 Levy County Evacuating Population At Risk and
Evacuation Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

5 Levy County Primary Shelter Capacity . . . . . . . 19

6 Levy County Secondary Shelter Capacity . . . . . . 20

7 Net Shelter Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

8 Gale Force Wind Analysis and Shelter Duration
Period by Storm Type and Intensity . . . . . . . 24

9 Evacuation Times - Vulnerability Level 'A'. . . . 25

10 Evacuation.Times - Vulnerability Level IBI . . . . 26

11 Sensitivity Analysis of Pre-Landfall Hazard
Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PAGE

1 Hypothetical Hurricane Tracks . . . . . . . . . . 6

LIST OF MAPS

MAP. PAGE

1 EVACUATION ZONES - LEVY COUNTY . . . . . . . . . . 11

2 EVACUATION NETWORK - LEVY COUNTY . . . . . . . . . 15

LIST OF APPENDICES

APPENDIX PAGE

A Levy County Evacuation Zone Boundaries . . . A@'l

B Levy County Assigned Link Volumes and V/C
R@@ios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

C Legal Authority to Issue an Evacuation
Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-rl

INTRODUCTION

As part of the Withlacoochee Hurricane Evacuation Plan,
decision-making guides are to be furnished to each county
in the region and the Florida Bureau of Emergency Management
for use as a ready reference tool by decision-makers during
the approach of the storm. The purpose of the guide is to
provide information to assist local and state civil defense
officials and other emergency management organizations to
implement the critical actions necessary to prepare for, and
respond to, a hurricane threat.

Basically, the guides consist of two parts. The first
part is largely an excerpt from the technical data report pre-
pared for the coastal counties of the region. This excerpt
provides information on the expected number of evacuees,
needed sheltering and evacuation times according to the fore-
casted intensity of the hurricane.

The second part is concerned with the coordination of
the evacuation. This includes information on the roles and
responsibilities of agencies involved in the issuance of the
evacuation order and the management of the evacuation. The
chapter on local coordination is largely excerpted from the
Hurricane Amex of the Local Peacetime Emergency Plans in
each county. The chapter on regional coordination is excerpted
from the technical data report.

In addition, the coordination section includes a dis-
cussion of the implications of the findings of the technical
data report on local evacuation decision-making.

Also, a quick reference guide is included which presents
information on the expected number of evacuees and recommended
evacuation order times according to several evacuation
scenarios.

CHAPTER I

QUICK REFERENCE GUIDE

The purpose of this chapter is to provide local decision-
makers with a quick reference guide as to the number of per-
sons vulnerable to hurricane hazards in Levy County and
the recommended evacuation order times according to the
forecasted intensity of the hurricane.

The population-at-risk and recommended evacuation order
times are presented according to designated level of v ulner-
ability. These levels of vulnerability are based on the
forecasted hurricane intensity.

It should be noted that the remaining chapters in this
document should be read prior to consulting this quick
reference guide in order to gain familiarity with how these
numbers were calculated.

Vulnerability Level 'All"

Population-At-Risk

Surge-vulnerable residents: 4,714
Mobile-home residents: 7,363
Total: 12,077

Number requiring public shelter: 3,696

l/ See Map 1 and table 2 for definition of vulnerability
levels.

Recommended Evacuation Order Times 2/

3/
Storm Type Storm Intensity Evacuation Time

Exiting 1 11.5 Hours
Exiting 2 12.5
Paralleling 1 11.5
Paralleling 2 12.5
Paralleling 3 14
Paralleling 4 15
Normal 1 12.5
Normal 2 13

Vulnerability Level 'B'

Population-at-Risk

Surge-vulnerable residents: 7,493
Mobile-home residents: 6,426
Total: 13,919

Number requiring public shelter: 4,259

Recommended Evacuation order Times

Storm Type Storm Intensity Evacuation Time

Normal 3 15 Hours
Normal 4 16
Normal 5 14

Vulnerability Level 'A' w/Tampa Bay

Population-At-Risk

If there is a concurrent Withlacoochee and Tampa Bay
evacuation, population-at-risk figures increase as follows:

2/Chapter IV, Evacuation Times should be consulted for
possib e timing adjustments.
3@See table 1 and figure 1 for definition of storm
types and intensities.

Total: 13,675

Number Requiring Public Shelter: 5,294

Recommended Evacuation order Times

Evacuation times do not change significantly if there
is a concurrent Tampa Bay and Withlacoochee evacuation.

Vulnerability Level 'B' w/Tampa Bay

Population-At-Risk

Total: 18,460

Number Requiring Public Shelter: 8,800

Recommended Evacuation order Times

Evacuation times do not change significantly if there
is a concurrent Tampa Bay and Withlacoochee evacuation.

Implications for Evacuation Decision-Making

Due to the long evacuation times required for certain
intensities of hurricanes, readiness conditions may have to
be accelerated (see Chapter VII, Local Coordinative Mechanism).
In addition, the amount of resources required to accommodate
the expected number of evacuees may have to be increased.

CHAPTER II

EXTENT OF EVACUATION

The extent of the hurricane evacuation refers to the
identification of those persons vulnerable to hurricane
hazards in Levy County and the calculation of this vulner-
able population.

Identification of Vulnerable Population

There are primarily three hurricane hazards which
necessitate or affect the evacuation of Levy County: hurri-
cane forc'e winds, storm surge and rainfall.

Hurricane Force Winds

Hurricane force winds are defined as 74 mph or greater.
A computer program called SPLASH, developed by the National
Hurricane Center, was used to predict peak wind speeds
resulting from hurricanes. The results indicated that peak
wind speeds may vary from 84-174 mph, depending on storm
type and intensity. Figure 1 and table 1 display the types
and intensities of hurricanes used in the SPLASH program and
their resultant wind speeds.

Mobile homes are particularly vulnerable to hurricane
force winds because of their lightweight construction and
flat sides and ends. Although local regulations require that
mobile homes be anchored so as to withstand wind speeds in
excess of 70 to 100 mph. In addition, mobile homes are more
vulnerable to flying debris. As a result of this vulnerability
to hurricane force winds, the National Weather Service recom-
mends that all mobile home residents should evacuate in the
event of a hurricane.

Storm Surge

The storm surge is the rising wall of ocean water,
mainly produced by hurricane-force winds, which impacts upon
coastal fringe areas. The storm surge is by far the most
severe hurricane hazard. It causes 9 out of 10 hur---icane-
related deaths and possesses the greatest damage potential.
A comparison of figure 1 with table 1 indicates that, of the
hurricanes in the SPLASH model which produce the greatest
affect on Levy Countypeak surge heights are predicted to
range from 4 to 33 feet, depending on storm type and
intensity.

-U0T4P0TJT4uGPT NDPa4 Oq A9X a0J T aTqpq gas*

.'j s9TTuI 9*99 = tIOUT T :GTPOS

09MMON *9T
OVOSHUON *ST 090SULXa *OT 090sriuva *S
0 Z 0 SUd ON *tT OVOSUIXa. '6 ovosrldvd *t
OOOSHUON *CT OZOSUIXa *8 OZOSrIdVd *E
OZOSrMON 'ZT 000SUIXa *L 0 0 0 sydvcl *z
OtWMON *TT 0 z 0 SUM 19 OZOSUUVd *T

9T
tT ET
FT
T

::7@3T
6

*SXZ)Vdl aNVDIH'dflH UVDIIaHlOd2@H

T allnDIa

TABLE

HURRICANES GENERATED BY SPLASH

Input Parameters Results

Pressure Storm Radius Of Direction Peak Surge Peak Wind
Drop Speed Maximum.Winds (degrees clockwise Height Speed
Identification- (millibars) (m.p.h.) (miles) from North) -(f t (m.p.h.)

NOR-01-LS040 30 15 20 45 9.6 86
NOR-01-LS020 30 15 20 45 11.6 86
NOR-01-RSOOO 30 15 20 45 11.6 86
NOR-01-RS020 30 15 20 45 9.8 86
NOR-01-RS040 30 15 20 45 8.7 86
NOR-01-RS060 30 15 20 45 7.4 86

NOR-02-LS040 40 15 20 45 13.0 99
NOR-02-LS020 40 15 20 45 15.6 99
NOR-02-RSOOO 40 15 20 45 16.0 99
NOR-02-RS020 40 15 20 45 12.9 99
NOR-02-RS040 40 15 20 45 11.8 99
NOR-02-RS060 40 15 20 45 10.0 99

NOR-03-LS040 60 15 20 45 19.6 121
NOR-03-LS020 60 15 20 45 23.6 121
NOR-03-RSOOO 60 15 20 45 24.2 121
NOR-03-RS020 60 15 20 45 20.2 121
NOR-03-RS040 60 15 20 45 17.9 121
NOR-03-RS060 60 15 20 45 15.2 121

NOR-04-LS040 80 15 20 45 26.4 140
NOR-04-LS020 80 15 20 45 31.8 140
NOR-04-RSOOO 80 15 20 45 32.6 140
NOR-04-RS020 80 15 20 45 27.2 .141
NOR-04-RS040 80 15 20 45 24.2 140
NOR-04-RS060 80 15 20 45 20.5 140

TABLE I (cont..)

HURRICANES GENERATED BY SPLASH

Input Parameters Results

Pressure Storm Radius Of Direction Peak Surge Peak Wind
Drop Speed Maximum Winds (degrees clockwise Height Speed
Identification (millibars) (m.p.h.) (miles) from North) (ft.) (m.p.h.)

NOR-05-LS040 100 15 12 45 24.8 174
NOR-05-LS020 100 15 12 45 26.0 172
NOR-05-RSOOO 100 15 12 45 33.1 172
NOR-05-RS020 100 15 12 45 29.2 174
NOR-05-RS040 100 15 12 45 23.6 174
NOR-05-RS060 100 15 12 45 21.4 174

PAR-01-LS060 30 15 20 120 8.2 86
.PAR-01-LS040 jo 15 20 120 8.3 86
PAR-01-LS020 30 15 20 120 8.0 86
co PAR-01-RSOOO 30 15 20 120 7.3 82
PAR-01-RS020 30 15 20 120 5.2 73

PAR-02-LS060 40 15 20 120 11.1 99
PAR-02-LS040 40 15 20 120 11.2 100
PAR-02-LS020 40 15 20 120 11.0 99
PAR-02-RSOOO 40 15 20 120 10.1 95
PAR-,02-RS020 40 15 20 120 7.3 86
PAR-03-LS060 60 15 20 120 16.8 122
PAR-03-LS040 60 .15 20 120 17.1 122
PAR-03-LS020 60 15 20 120 15.7 122
PAR-03-RSOOO 60 15 20 120 15.8 118
PAR-03-RS020 60 15 20 120 11.5 108

PAR-04-LS060 80 15 20 120 22.6 141

EXT-01-LS015 30 15 20 165 5.2 84
EXT-01-RSOOO 30 15 20 165 5.7 84
EXT'01-RS015 30 15 20 165 4.0 86

TABLE 1 (cont.)

HURRICANES GENERATED BY SPLASH
Input Parameters -Results

Pressure Storm Radius Of Direction Peak Surge Peak Wind
Drop Speed Maximum Winds (degrees clockwise Height Speed
Identification (millibars) (m.p.h.) (miles) from North) (ft.) (m.p.h.)

EXT-01-RS030 30 15 20 165 3.9 86
EXT-01-RS045 30 15 20 165 3.6 86

EXT-02-LS015 40 15 20 165 7.4 99
EXT-02-RS00O 40 15 20 165 8.0 98
EXT-02-RS015 40 15 20 165 5.7 99
EXT-02-RS030 40 15 20* 165 5' .5 99
EXT-02-RS045 40 15 20 165 5.1 99

Key for identification:

NOR - Path of hurricane normal or perpendicular to Gulf Coast
PAR - Path of hurricane parallel to Gulf Coast
EXT - Path of hurricane from point inland to Gulf Coast

01 to 05 - Hurricane intensity level based*6n-Saffir/Simpson scale

LS, RS - Path of hurricane located to the left side or right side of
Cedar Key, facing the Gulf Coast

000 to 060 - Distance of path of hurricane to the left or right from
Cedar Key in miles

Source: SPLASH II computer output

Due to the severity of this hazard, all residents of
areas subject to storm-surge flooding should evacuate. The
approximate limits of the areas in Levy County subject to
this hazard are shown in map 1.

Vulnerability Levels. Each storm type and intensity
listea-I-n -table I which affects Levy County produces a
different peak surge height. However, due to topographic
changes in coastal areas, the extent to which the surge
travels inland for several of these storm types and inten-
sities does not change significantly. Therefore, these storm
types and intensities are condensed into two vulnerability
levels, as shown in table 2. The approximate geographic
limits of these levels are shown in map 1.

Rainfall

Approximately 6 to 12 inches of rainfall can be expected.
to accompany a hurricane. However, the geographic distri-
bution of this rainfall is di-fficult to predict prior to the
arrival of the hurricane. Therefore, if heavy rains are
predicted to accompany a hurricane, residents in areas sub-
ject to severe freshwater flooding should be prepared to
evacuate in the event a hurricane warning is issued for -their
area.

Also, heavy rainfall can produce impedances in the
evacuation process-by causing difficult driving conditions.
The effects of early rainfall on evacuation time are dis-
cussed in Chapter IV, Evacuation Times.

Population-At-Risk

The number of persons residing within the surge-vulner-
able areas, as shown in map 1, and the number of mobile home
.residents outside these areas constitute @@e population-at-
risk to hurricane hazards in Levy County. This is shown
below by vulnerability level:

'IThe number of persons evacuating due to freshwater
flooding should berelatively minor.

MAP 1

EVACUATION ZONES - LEVY COUNTY

GILCHRIST COUNTY

Fann ng Spr gs

L12
Chiefland L I 1 94
L 13 Bronson LIO 33 21

Ilk, Williston
41-

o Otter Ck 41
o. - .5
ooo
0 o.o
o.---oo L9
I @o @ o o
oo'@o L7
o
o o ooooo
oo o,v n o
o oo -- oo,
o o 24
o ooo'o L6 L6
L I co '- - - 1111111
ooooo oo oo o
o
o
o oo ooc
oo.'o
o@ o oo' . oo
o oo
d " o o
oo ool
oo oo6 o
ooo o o oo o o
oooo1)oo o 'ooo
o oo"o oo oo "oo o
0 o
oo o o.o
.oo@o' L2ooo--ooooo'
oooo oo
-oo oo-oo -o o -o ooooooo oo o 33
o0o o 5goo- oo
o o ooo '-o o oooo . o o
0oo oo o' "
ooo oo
o @ oo o o o
o o o oo
oo oo
oo-oo-
oo ooo-oo-ooooo oo
o oo o o o o
vpoo ooooooo @oooooo-ool
o'oo oo- oo.-o- oo 'o oo
oooooooo
ooo
oo
oooo oooo,oooo.oo. o oooL3 o o
oooooo
-o oo o@ @ @ oo o ooooooo
o o oooo o oc oo o -ol L4
o o ooo
o.ooo-oo-o-o- - 'oo
o o o
ooo.o o--o'ooo
o.o.
LEGE N D oon a o
o
oooo
oet wo- o 4.
o1ololo, LEVEL "A' FLOODING o oo o
o o o o
ooooo
LEVEL "B" FLOODING
o o o
o o(
o
LIO EVACUATION ZONE NUMBER

0 5 10
Source: Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, Inc. Graphic Scale
Scale in Mi les

TABLE 2

VULNERABILITY LEVELS

Storm Intensity Vulnerability 2/
Storm Type Category Level

Exiting 1 A
Exiting 2 A
Paralleling 1 A
Paralleling 2 A
Paralleling 3 A
Paralleling 4 A
Normal 1 A
Normal 2 A

Normal 3 B
Normal 4 B
Normal 5 B

1/ Storm intensity category refers to the intensity level
on the Saffir/Simpson scale.
2/ Vulnerability levels are inclusive meaning that vulner-
ability Level B includes all persons residing within the areas
bounded by Vulnerability Levels A and B (see Map 1).

Vulnerability Population-At
Level Risk

A 12,077
B 13,919

The difference between vulnerability levels 'A' and 'B'
is the number of non-mobile home residents in surge area 'B'
as shown in Map 1.

Evacuation Destination Distribution

As part of the technical data report for this plan, a
statistically significant survey of hurricane respoPe
behavior was conducted in the Withlacoochee region. One
of the questions asked in the survey was the evacuation
destination. 'The destina*tlo*ns were public shelter, friend
or relative and hotel/motel.

Based on the results of this survey and discussions with
the Regional Disaster Preparedness Advisory Committee, the
following evacuation destination distribution was developed
for the coastal counties:

Evacuation Percentage of Population-At-Risk
Destination Seeking Destination

Public Shelter 30.6%
Friend or Relative 40.6
Hotel/Motel 28.8

It should be noted that, for the hotel/motel destination,
there is not sufficient hotel/motel capacity to accommodate
the expected number of evacuees seeking this destination.
Therefore, those evacuees unable to obtain a hotel or motel
in Levy County are assumed to seek such destinations outside
the region.

Tjm2a Bay Evacuees

Based on a report prepared by the Florida Bureau of
Emergency Management, approximately 30,000 evacuees from the
Tampa Bay region are expected to enter the Withlacoochee
Region via U.S. 41, Some evacuees will also enter the
coastal counties.via U.S. 301 and 1-75. Of these evacuees,
approximately 17,000 are expected to need public shelter.3/
2/Behavioral Surveys for the Withlacoochee Regional
Disastqr Preparedness Plan, H. W. Lochner, Inc., 1982.
"/'Report on the Expected Coastal Demand for Inland County
Shelter Facilities from the Tampa Day and Southwest Florida
Regions, Florida Bureau of Emergency Management, 1982.

The number of Tampa Bay evacuees entering Levy County
will depend on available public shelter capacity in Levy
County. According to the technical data report, if an evacu-
ation order is issued for both the Tampa Bay and Withlacoochee
regions, there is approximately 4,500 to 5,000 shelter spaces
available for incoming Tampa Bay evacuees in Levy County,
depending on the level of vulnerability. Assuming, that
through traffic from the Tampa Bay region heads toward 1-75
(which may require the use of traffic control personnel),
this means that approximately 4,500 evacuees or approximately
1,700 vehicles may enter Levy County via U.S. 41 under a
higherAntensity storm.

Evacuation Routes and Zones

As part of a transportation model of a hurricane evacu-
ation in the Withlacoochee region, the Ivacuation roadway
network for each county was designated. 7 This network is
displayed in map 2 for Levy County.

Another task of the transportation modeling effort was
to divide the counties into evacuating zones. Zones were
based on the roadway network and other easily identifiable
boundaries.

These zones show the distribution of the population-at-
risk within the county and thereby assists in the allocation
of manpower and other resources within the county. Map 1
displays the evacuation zones developed for Levy County.
Appendix A provides a written description of these zones.
Tables 3 and 4 show the distribution of the evacuation
population and number of vehicles, broken out by evacuation
destination, for vulnerability levels 'A' and IB', respectively.

4/Transportation Analysis: Withlacoochee Regional
Hurricane Evacuation Plan, Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan,
August, 1983.

MAP 2

EVACUATION NETWORK - LEVY COUNTY

GILCHRIST COUNTY

Fanning Springs
L 100

L 13 L 12
31oChiefland L124 339 L123 24
LIO f
Bronson OL 10.
122
-1-102 LI 11
c) 0
L 125 L 121
41 L 109 L 120 9

335 Otter Creek 121 41
L 103 345 11

7 1-108 L07 L 117 L 118 1-119
L 107 24
L 112
b, 106 08
L06
L 105 L05b. L 202
LOI L116
OL02

L 115

104
Cedar KI y

L03

L04
LEGEND 9 L 203
0 STREET OR INTERSECTION LOCATION Yankee@wn L113' 11 4
(NODE) L 114 nglis
0 EVACUATION ZONE CENTER (CENTROID)

L 104 NODE OR CENTROID NUMBER

Source: Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, Inc. 0 Graphic 5 Scale lo
Scale in Miles

TABLE 3

LEVY COUNTY EVACUATING POPULATION AT RISK AND EVACUATING VEHICLES

Evacuating Evacuating
Population 1 2 3 4 Vehicles 1 2 3 4
Zone #LOl 2260 692 918 651 0 877 268 356 253 0
Zone #L02 113 35 46 33 0 44 13 18 13 0
Zone #L03 2341 716 950 674 0 909 278 369 262 0
Zone #L04 756 231 307 218 0 293 90 119 85 0
Zone #L05 54 17 22 16 0 21 6 9 6 0
Zone #L06 127 39 52 37 0 49 15 20 14 0
Zone #L07 124 38 50 36 0 48 15 20 14 0
Zone #L08 405 157
124 164 117 0 48 64 45 0
Zone #L09 1901 582 772 547 0 738 226 300 212 0
Zone #LlO 1696 519 688 488 0 658 201 267 90 0
Zone #Lll 429 131 174 124 0 167 51 68 48 0
Zone #L12 216 66 88 62 0 84 26 34 24 0
Zone #1,13 1655 506 672 477 0 642 197 261 185 0
12077 3696 4903 3480 0 4687 1434 1905 1351 0

1 = Red Cross Shelter % Participation 100 Surge Zones L01, L02, L03
2 = Friends Home # per Mobile Home Unit 2.7
3 = Hotel/Motel # per Other Unit 2.7
4 = Do Not Know Avg. Veh. per D.U.. 1.6
Veh..Usage % 65.5
Dist. %: S=30.6 FR=40.6 HM=28.8 DK=O

TABLE 4

LEVY COUNTY EVACUATING POPULATION AT RISK AND EVACUATING VEHICLES

Evacuating Evacuating
Population 1 2 3 4 Vehicles 1 2 3 4

Zone #LOl 2260 877
692 918 651 0 268 356 253 0
Zone #L02 113 44
35 46 33 0 13 18 13 0
Zone #L03 2341 909
716 950 674 0 278 369 262 0
Zone #L04 2371 920
725 962 683 0 282 374 265 0
Zone #L05 130 50
40 53 37 0 15 20 14 0
Zone #L06 278 108
85 113 80 0 33 44 31 0
Zone #L07 124 48
38 50 36 0 15 20 14 0
Zone #L08 405 157
124 164 117 0 48 64 45 0
Zone #L09 1901 738
582 772 547 0 226 300 212 0
Zone #LlO 1696 658
519 688 488 0 201 267 190 0
Zone #Lll 429 167
131 174 124 0 51 68 48 0
Zone #L12 216 84
66 88 62 0 26 34 24 0
Zone #L13 1655 642
506 672 477 0 197 261 185 0
13919 4259 5650 4009 0 5402 1653 2195 1556 0

1 = Red Cross Shelter % Participation 100 Surge Zones LOI, L02, L03,
2 = Friends Home per Mobile Home Unit 2.7 L04, L05, L06
3 = Hotel/Motel per Other Unit 2.7
4 = Do Not Know Avg. Veh. per D.U. 1.6
Veh. 'Usage %
Dist. %: S=30.6 FR=40.6 HM=28.8 DK=O

CHAPTER III

PUBLIC SHELTER CAPACITY

Primary and Secondary Shelters

Primary shelters consist of the public schools in Levy
County located outside of the surge-vulnerable areas. These
shelters will be opened and used first in the evacuation
process. Table 5 presents the capacity of the primary public
shelters in Levy County.

Secondary shelters consist of churches and other civic
buildings located outside of the surge-vulnerable areas.
These shelters will only be opened if there is insufficient
primary shelter capacity to accommodate the evacuees. Table
6 presents the capacity of the secondary public shelters in
Levy County which.were inventoried for the technical data
report.l/

Table 7 displays the public shelter demand and capacities
for each of the coastal counties. It can be seen that there
is more than adequate primary shelter capacity to accommodate
the expected number of Levy County evacuees. However, if
an evacuation order is issued for both the Tampa Bay and
Withlacoochee regions, all the primary and secondary shelter
capacity in Levy County may have to be utilized. The
implications of a Withlacoochee and Tampa Bay evacuation
on evacuation times are discussed in the next chapter.

Shelter Duration Periods

The shelter duration period is defined as the minimum
period of time in which evacuees must remain in their evacu-
ation destination until the hurricane passes. This is defined
as the period of time before and after the occurrence of
gale force winds (39 - 73 mph). Gale force winds are a ssumed
to create hazardous conditions due to flying debris. These
times were calculated from the results of the SPLASH model
and are displayed in table 9 for each hurricane type and
intensity.

1/It should be noted that the list of secondary shelters
was developed for the regional hurricane evacuation plan.
Shelter agreements need to be established for the opening
and operation of these shelters during a hurricane evacuation.

TABLE 5

LEVY COUNTY PRIMARY SHELTER CAPACITY

Shelter Name Address Ca2acityl/

(Ll) Bronson Elementary School St. & Pine St. 477
School Bronson, FL 32621

(L2) Bronson High School School St. & Pine St. 360
Bronson, FL 32621

(L3) Joyce Bullock Elementary SW 3rd St. & SW lst 1,055
School Ave., Williston, FL 32696

(L4) Chiefland Elementary US 19 W & 8th Ave. 1,270
School Chiefland, FL 32626

(L5) Chiefland High School US 19 W & 8th Ave. 1,095
Chiefland, FL 32626

(L6) Williston High School US 41 & SW 6th St. 1,159
Williston, FL 32696

(L7) Williston Intermediate C-511 & C331A 385
School Williston, FL 32696

(L8) Yankeetown School Port Ave. & Schoolcraft 212
Dr., Inglis, FL 32649

TOTAL 6,013

1/Based on 20 square feet of usable shelter space/person.

Source: Levy County School Board.

TABLE 6

LEVY COUNTY SECONDARY SHELTER CAPACITY

Shelter Name Address Capacity

(L'9) Methodist Church 235 Court Street 200
Bronson

(L10) First Baptist Church Court St. & Capital St. 300
Bronson

(Lll) Church of Jesus Christ C.R. 418 & S.R. 345 196
Chiefland

(L12) Ebenezer Baptist Church C.R. 300 & C.R. 339 250
Chiefland

(L13) First Baptist Church U.S. 27 Alt. & N.E. 4th St. 500
Chiefland

M14) First United Methodist N.E. lst St. & N.E. 7th Ave. 50
Church Chiefland

(L13) Church of Christ C.R. 326 & U.S. 41 125
Morriston

(LlG) Church of God S.E. 4th St. & S.E. 3rd Ave. 150
Williston

(L17-) Faith Baptist S.R. 500 & C.R. 335A 228
Tabernacle Williston

(Lla) First Baptist Church 131 E. Noble Ave. 800
Williston

(Ll9j) First United Methodist W. Noble Ave. & S.W. 2nd Street 200
Church Williston

TOTAL 2,999

TABLE 7

NET SHELTER CAPACITY

LM County

Primary Shelter Secondary Shelter Shelter Net Shelter
Capacity Capacity Demand Capacity

5,801 + 2,999 4,259 4,541

Citrus County

13,110 + 3,056 8,954- 7,212.

Hernando County

9,126 + 3,664 7.,833.. 4,957

Coastal County Total

28,037 + 9,719 21,046 16,710

Coastal County Total Plus
Tampa Bay Evacuees

28,037 + 9,719 37,839 -33,

Sources: WRPC Staff analysis.

Report on Expected Coastal Demand for Inland County Shelter Facilities
from the Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida Regions, Florida Bureau of
Disaster Preparedness.
NOTES: l/ Based on worst case surge vulnerability.

It should be noted that these are minimum shelter
duration periods and that actual shelter duration periods
may have to be increased depending on the results of the
storm.

CHAPTER IV

EVACUATION TIMES

Evacuation times consist of three components: pre-
landfall hazard time, behavioral response time and clearance
time.

Pre-landfall hazard time is the number of hours before
the eye of the storm strikes or makes its closest point of
approach in which gale force winds occur. It is assumed
that evacuation must be completed before the occurrence of
gale force winds due to the potential of hazardous driving
conditions. Pre-landfall hazard times are presented in
table 8 for each storm type and intensity.

Behavioral response time is the amount of time it takes
for the vulnerable population to respond to the evacuation
order. These times were based on the survey of hurricane
response behavior conducted in the Withlacoochee region and
previous evacuation studies and were calculated as part of
the transportation model.

Clearance time is the amount of travel time it takes
for the vulnerable population to reach their evacuation desti-
nations. This time was calculated as a part of the anspor-
tation model developed for the Withlacoochee region.

Evacuation time is the sum of these components. Tables
9 and 10 display the evacuation times by each level of vulner-
ability for each county in the Withlacoochee region. It can
be seen that evacuation times are greatly increased in some
counties, if both the Withlacoochee and Tampa Bay regions
are issued an evacuation order.

1/clearance time is calculated by determining which
link in the evacuation roadway network, displayed in Map 2,
is the most congested during the evacuation process. This
is called the "critical link."- The amount of time-it takes
for the last.vehicle to "clear" this link is the clearance
time. Appendix B presents the distribution of traffic on
the roadway network in Levy County according to the evacu-
ation scenarios developed for this report. The critical
links are denoted with an asterisk.

TABLE 8

GALE FORCE WIND ANALYSIS AND-SHELTER DURATION PERIOD
BY STORM TYPE AND INTENSITY

Storm Storm Pre-landfall Shelter Duration
Type Intensity Hazard Time Period
Normal 5 7.01/ 12.01/
Normal 4 9.0 15.0
Normal 3 8.0 14.0
Normal 2 6.0 11.0
Normal 1 5.5 9.5

Paralleling 4 8.0 17.0
Paralleling 3 7.0 15.0
Paralleling 2 5.5 11.0
Paralleling 1 4.5 9.0

Exiting 2 5.5 13.0
Exiting 1 4.5 12.0

Pre-landfall hazard time and shelter duration period
for storm intensity category five are shorter due to a narrower
radius of maximum winds

Source: SPLASH II computer output.

TABLE 9

EVACUATION TIMES (in hours)

VULNERABILITY LEVEL 'A'

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY LEVEL
Response A w/Tampa Bay
-Curve A Evacuation

Levy County A-Quick Response 8 3/4 - 12 1/4 8 3/4 - 12 1/4
B-Medium Response 11 3/4 - 15 1/4 11 3/4 - 15 1/4
C-Slow Response 14 3/4 - 18 1/4 14 3/4 - 18 1/4

Citrus County A-Quick Response 12 1/4 - 15 3/4 12 1/4 - 15 3/4
B-Medium Response 14 - 17 1/2 14 - 17 1/2
C-Slow Response 16 - 19 1/2 16 - 19 1/2

tQ
Ln
Hernando County A-Quick Response 8 3/4 - 12 1/4 29 1/2 - 33
B-Medium. Response 12 - 15 1/2 24 - 27 1/2
C-Slow Response 15 18 1/2 30-3/4 - 34 1/4

Marion County A-Quick Response 9 1/2 13 1/2 22 1/2 - .26
B-Medium Response 12- 1/2 16 24 - 27 1/2
C-Slow Response 15 1/2 19 25 1 / 2- 29

Sumter County A-Quick Response 9 - 12 1/2 22 1/2 - 26
B-Medium Response 11 3/4 - 15 1/4 24 - 27 1/2
C-Slow Response 14 1/2 - 18 1/4 25 1/2 - 29

SOURCE: Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, Inc. and WRPC Staff.

TABLE 10

EVACUATION TIMES (in hours)

VULNERABILITY LEVEL IBR

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY LEVEL
Response B w/Tampa Bay
-Curve B Evacuation

Levy County A-Quick Response 10 3/4 - 14 3/4 10 3/4,.,.- 14 3/4,
B-Medium Response 13 1/4 - 16 1/4 13 1/4 - 16 1/4
C-Slow Response 16 1/4 - 19 1/4 16 1/4 - 19 1/4

Citrus County A-Quick Response 16 1/4 - 18 1/4 16 1/4 - 18 1/4
B-Medium Response is - 20 18 - 20
C-Slow Response 20 - 22 20 - 22

Hernando County A-Quick Response 15 1/4 - 18 1/4 32 - 34 1/2
15 1/4 - 17 1/4 32 1/2 - 34 1/2
B-Medium. Response
C-Slow Response 17 1/2 - 19 1/2 33 1/4 - 35 1/4

Marion County A-Quick Response 12 - 14 25 1/4 - 27 1/4
B-Medium Response 15 - 17 25 3/4 - 28 3/4
C-Slow Response 18 - 20 28 1/4 - 30 1/4

Sumter County A-Quick Response 11 1/2 - 13 1/2 25 - 27
B-Medium Response 14 1/4 - 16 1/4 26 1/2 - 28 1/2
C-Slow Response 17 1/4 - 19 1/4 28 - 30

SOURCE: Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, Inc. and WRPC Staff

Timing Adjustments

Evacuation Order Adjustment. The behavioral response
time includes response time before and after the evacuation
order is issued. The amount of response time before the
evacuation order is issued should be subtracted from the
evacuation times listed in tables 2 and 10 in order to arrive
at the minimum evacuation order time. These adjustments are
as follows:

Behavioral Response Change in Evacuation Time

A (quick) subtract 1 hour
B (medium) subtract 2 hours
C (slow) subtract 3 hours

Early Arrival of Rainfall. The evacuation times set
forth in this report include the number of hours before eye
landfall (pre-landfall hazard time) when ambient high winds
might prevent evacuation from being carried out. However,
depending on the structure, size, or forward speed of the
storm, hurricane-induced rainfall may precede this point in
time. Historically, rainfall has occurred as late as two
hours before eye landfall and as early as twenty hours before
eye landfall. Such rainfall would reduce roadway carrying
capacity because of limited driver visibility and wet pave-
ment. This reduction has been estimated at approximately
fifteen percent in past transportation studie"s. This adjust-
ment requires a monitoring of the forecasted arrival of
rainfall by the local weather service office radar. If the
arrival of rainfall is forecasted substantially before the
pre-landfall hazards time an amount of time equal to about
fifteen percent of the clearance time should be immediately
added to the evacuation time. The clearance time is the over-
all evacuation time minus the pre'-landfall hazards time.

Based on the above, the following are the changes in
evacuation time according to behavioral response:

Behavioral Response Change in Evacuation Time

A add 1.5 hours
B add 1.5 hours
C add 2 hours

Changes in Hurricane Parameters. Certain variables
were used to Dredict wind speeds in the SPLASH model. If,
according to ihe monitoring of the storm before landfall,
these variables are different, the arrival of gale force winds
could change and thereby affect pre-landfall hazard times.

The parameters in the SPLASH model which can affect. the
arrival of gale force winds and thereby pre-landfall hazard
times are the forward speed of the storm and the radius to
maximum winds. As the storm speed increases, there is less
time required for the arrival of gale force winds, thereby
reducing pre-landfall hazard time. As the radius-to-maximum,
winds increases, gale force winds arrive sooner, thereby,
increasing pre-landfall hazard times.

In order to ascertain the sensitivity of pre-landfall
hazard times to the aforementioned, additional SPLASH program
runs were made. Forward speed'and radius-to-maximum winds
were independently varied in each additional run. The results
are presented and explained in table 11.

Unpredictable Road Blockages. The intensity of traffic
during a hurricane evacuation will always be accompanied by
a certain number of traffic accidents and breakdowns.
Although roadway shoulders are available for vehicles in dis-
tress, the movement of such vehicles to these areas is often
difficult and disruptive. It is recommended that at least
two traffic control personnel be positioned at each key road-
way link so that one can assist disabled vehicles as needed.
A tow vehicle should also be positioned at each critical link
to facilitate the removal of immobilized vehicles. Those
roadways that historically experience flooding due to rainfall
alone should be monitored for vehicle distress and help.

To guard against an unpredictable, and thus unquanti-
fiable blockage of evacuation routes that could add to the
overall evacuation time, a safety margin of up to two hours
will be added to the evacuation times. Such unDredictable
blockages could include: disabled vehicles, traffic accidents
and fallen trees or other debris.

.Recommended Evacuation Times. It is recommended that a
Inedium behavioral response be used in determining the evacu-
ation order time. It is also recommended that two hours be
added to the evacuation time to account for unpredictable
road blockages. Other adjustments in evacuation times should
be made as necessary according to the previously mentioned
adjustment factors.

TA13LE 11

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF PRE-LANDF'ALL
HAZARD TIMES

Storm Spee

Intensity Level Change in Storm Speed Change in Hazard Time

1 +15 mph -1.5 hrs.
2 +15 -2.0
3 +15 -4.0
4 +15 -4.0
5 +15 -3.0

Radius to Maximum Winds (RMW)
Change in RMW Change in Hazard Time 2/

-10 -2
+10 +2
+20 +4
+30 +6

l/
Changes in pre-landfall hazard times for other changes
in storm speed can be determined from this table. For example,-
if the storm speed is forecasted 10 mph greater than the storm
speed used in the SPLASH model, which is 15 mph, the resultant
change in storm speed is proportional. The hazard times will
increI se only if the forecasted storm speed is less than 15 mph.
/Generally there is a 2 hour change in hazard time for
every 10 mile change in RMW. The RMW used in the SPLASH model
are shown in table 1.

SOURCE: SPLASH II computer printouts prepared by the National
Hurricane Center.

Based on the above recommendations, the following are
recommended evacuation order times according to level of
vulnerability:

Vulnerability Level Recommended Evacuation Time
A 11.5 to 15 hours 2/
B 14 to 16 hours

These times represent minimum evacuation order times,
excluding other adjustment factors. These times should be
adjusted, using these factors, according to forecasted
hurricane conditions.

Implications for Evacuation Decision-Making

As can be seen intables 9 and 10, the evacuation times
in Levy County do not change if there is a concurrent Tampa
Bay evacuation, whereas, in some other counties in the Withla-
coochee region, evacuation times are greatly increased.

There are two reasons why evacuation times do not change.
First, Hernando and Citrus counties absorb some of the traffic
from Tampa Bay on U.S. 41 before reaching Levy County. Second,
and more importantly, it was assumed in the transportation
model that through traffic (that is, traffic not seeking public
shelter in Levy County) will gravitate toward 1-75 and
therefore not produce as much congestion on the roadways.

Even though the evacuation times are much longer in some
other counties if there is a concurrent Tampa Bay evacuation,
the evacuation times are still long enough in Levy County
such that readiness conditions may have to be accelerated.

The effects of evacuation times on local preparedness
activities are further discussed in Chapter VII, Local Coordi-
native Mechanism.

2/ The difference in evacuation times for each vulnex' --
ability level are accounted by changes in storm intensity
for each level. Recommended evacuation order times are
presented by storm intensity in Chapter I, Quick Reference
Guide.

CHAPTER V

WARNING INFORMATION

Warning information refers to the flow of information
on the need for hurricane evacuation from the National Hurri-
cane Center to the general public. The purpose of this
chapter is not to propose a new method for the dissemination
of warning information, but rather to explain the existing system.

Agency Participants and Warning Process

The following are the principal Federal, State and
local governmental agencies involved in the warning system:

- National Hurricane Center, Miami
- Tampa Area Office, National Weather Service, Ruskin
- Florida Bureau of Emergency Management, Tallahassee
- Central Florida Area office, Florida
(Bureau of Emergency Management, Wildwood)
- Levy County Civil Defense Department
- Public Media (TV/Radio)

The warning process is initiated by the National Hurri-
cane Center and reac s the public through the following
five-step procedure:

1. A potential hurricane picked up in satellite
images is usually the subject to the first in
a series of advisory messages issued by the
National Hurricane Center at six hour intervals
(5 and 11 A.M. and P.M., Eastern Standard Time).
These early advisories are aimed mainly at
shipping and aviation interests. When the storm
intensifies further into a tropical storm, it is
given a name.

2. If the hurricane or tropical storm approaches
land, the advisory information begin's to focus
on coastal and inland effects.

l/ The following information was taken from the Pinellas
County Hurricane IE21ementation Guide, prepared by the Tampa
Bay Regional Planning Council, June, 1981.

- A Hurricane Watch announcement becomes part of
the NHC advisories when the storm threatens
coastal and inland areas. This Watch covers a
specified area and period of time and means that
hurricane conditions are a real possibility.

- A Hurricane Warning is added to the advisory when
hurricane conditions, winds of at least 74 miles
per hour, high water and storm tides, are expected
within a period of up to 24 hours. The Warning
identifies coastal areas where these conditions
are expected to occur.

3. As the threat to coastal areas becomes more apparent,
the advisories are then interspersed with inter-
mediate advisories every three hours or as needed.

4. once a hurricane becomes a threat to the Withla-
coochee Region, then the Tampa Area office of the
National Weather Service will add local statements
to each NHC advisory and intermediate advisories.
The local statements will consist of recommendations
for precautionary actions and completion times,
existing conditions of wind and tides, information
regarding projected storm tides confronting counties
of the region.

5. All normal warning information will be provided to
the general public through the media (radio/TV) by
the NHC and when necessary, local government.

The warning information provided by the hurricane advi-
sories, intermediate advisories and local statements will be
used as a basis to alert local officials and disaster organi-
zations of any potential hurricane threat. These warnings
are augmented by restricted information to local governments
also furnished by the NHC to assist those governments in
preparation and evacuation decision-making. This restricted
information is normally received over the National Warning
System (NAWAS) by the Department of Civil Defense, or, when
activated, the Levy County Emergency Operations Center (EOC).

On the basis of the aforementioned warning procedure,
the Governor of Florida is advised by the State Bureau of
Disaster Preparednes I/ to issue an evacuation order for the
affected local area; or, the chief elected official of each
affected local political jurisdiction may issue the evacu-
ation order, as advised by its disaster preparedness agency
or committee.

2/See appendix D for the chain of legal authority -to
issue an evacuation order.

The Central Florida Area Office will serve as the lead
agency fdr coordinating an interregional evacuation, which
is described in Chapter VI, Regional Coordinative mechanism.

Local disaster preparedness agencies and other agencies,
such as fire districts, Red Cross and Sheriffs Departments
will be the key agencies in carrying out the evacuation.
Agency involvement and specific evacuation procedures are
discussed in Chapter VII, Local Coordinative Mechanism. .

The following is a chronological summary of key warning
conditions, based on the above information, in relation to
the number of hours before projected hurricane eye landfall
or closest point of approach:

- 72 hour advisory: storm assigned Category number on
Saffir/Simpson Scale by NHC
- 48 hours before projected eye landfall: local
areas placed under hurricane watch condition by NHC
- 24 hours before projected eye landfall: local
areas placed under hurricane warning condition by NHC
- 12-24 hours before projected eye landfall: local
area advised to evacuate by NHC advisory or local NWS
office Local Action Statement
- Governor advised by Bureau of Emergency Management
to issue an evacuation order for the local area or
Executive Group, Hurricane Evacuation Committee
advised by its control group to issue an evacuation
order for the jurisdiction. The local evacuation
order should be issued according to the recommended
evacuation order times in this guide.

CHAPTER VI

REGIONAL COORDINATIVE MECHANISM

Regional Evacuation Scenarios

For purpose of this report, "regional" is defined as
affecting more than one county. Accepting this definition,
the hurricane is definitely a regional event. This is not
only because its hazards can affect a relatively large area,
but also due to the error in prediction as to where the hurri-
cane will strike, or make its closest point of approach (CPA)
during the hurricane warning period, typically 12 to 24 hours
before CPA. It is possible that up to a 250-mile "warning
area" along the coast may occur during the warning period
due to this error in prediction. Therefore, it is possible
that, for example, both the Withlacoochee and the Tampa Bay
regions may fall under this "warning area" and, hence, have
to be evacuated.

It should be further noted that the rate of reduction of
hurricane-force winds after the hurricane makes its closest
point of approach is largely unpredictable. Therefore, it
is assumed that the mobile-home residents in the inland
counties will have to evacuate regardless of the type or
intensity of the hypothetical hurricane tracks modeled in the
SPLASH computer model, should an evacuation order be issued
for the inland counties.

Based upon the above information, three regional evacu-
ation scenarios have been designated for purposes of this
report. They are as follows:

Regional Scenario A: includes all of the residents
within the evacuation zones associated with Vulner-
ability Level 'A' in the coastal counties, the
mobile-home residents in the remainder of the coastal
counties and the mobile-home residents in the inland
counties.

Regional Scenario B: includes all of the residents
within the evacuation zones associated with Vulner-
ability Levels A and B, the remainder of the coastal
-mobile-home residents and inland mobile-home residents.

Regional Scenario C: includes all of the residents in
Regional Scenario B and the number of persons entering
the Withlacoochee region from the Tampa Bay region,
based on the worst-case regional evacuation scenario
for the Tampa Bay region.

The aforementioned scenarios do not cover all the possi-
bilities in that it is possible that, for example, only the
northern counties of Levy and Marion need be evacuated should
the "warning area" be further to the north. The same applies
to the southern counties of Citrus, Sumter and Hernando;
should it be further to the south. It is also possible that,
for example, the Tampa Bay region may be evacuated without
any of the counties in the Withlacoochee region evacuated.
Thus, the regional scenarios should be viewed as worst-case
planning possibilities, based on currently available
information.

The population-at-risk for each regional scenario is
shown below:

Regional Scenario P02ulation-At-Risk

A 98,742
B 112,232
C 255,742

Implications for Evacuation Decision-makin2

The implications of-the regional evacuation scenarios
for evacuation decision-making in Citrus County are primarily
in regard to the possible need for additional manpower and
other resources necessary to accommodate Tampa Bay evacuees.
Since the public shelter capacity in most of the other
counties appears to be sufficient, there should be no evacuees
from other counties in the Withlacoochee region entering
Citrus County.

In terms of evacuation times, there appears to be a
negligible increase in time if there is a concurrent Withla-
coochee and Tampa Bay evacuation. However, additional traffic
manpower may be necessary to divert through traffic from U.S.
41 to 1-75.

l/The procedures for obtaining any needed additional
resources for the evacuation is addressed in the next section
and in Chapter VI.T, Local Coordinative Mechanism.

Regional Coordination

Lead Agency

To effectively coordinate a regional response to a
hurricane emergency, a lead agency must be designated to pro-
vide a linkage among the organizational participants. The
lead agency must have jurisdiction over a multi-county area,
and process sufficient expertise, staff and funding to effec-
tively manage the evacuation. A reliable communication
system is also crucial for the overall coordination of the
evacuation.

It is proposed that the Central Florida Area office for
the Bureau of Disaster Preparedness (CEFA) located in Wildwood,
be designated as the lead agency for interregional evacuation
management. While other entities were considered for desig-
na-.'--ion as lead agency, CEFA appears to be best qualified for
tei:ms of the criteria mentioned above. (See Figure 2.)

As the lead agency with overall responsibilities for
ccordination in the Withlacoochee Region, CEFA will serve
as the focal point for the flow of information on hurricane
warnings, evacuations and shelter openings.

Regional Entities

Organizations that will be involved at the regional
level include the Florida Highway Patrol, the Red Cross and
the Health and Rehabilitative Services Department. The FHP
maintains traffic control and maintains the progress of the
evacuation. Continuous communication with the regional EOC
will provide up-to-the-minute information on the evacuation
and thereby improved decision-making during the emergency.
The Red Cross will be involved at the regional level in the
opening and staffing of shelters. The regional office of the
Red Cross would assist in areas without a local Red Cross
Chapter. The State Department of HRS provides manpower
assistance to the Red Cross should insufficient personnel be
available for staffing of hurricane shelters.

Procedures for Implementation of Interregional
Evacuation Plan

To be effective, the plan for interregional evacuation
must contain a coordinative mechanism to establish procedures
for the opening of shelters and reception sites in coordi-
nation with evacuation movements. The proposed procedures
for implementation of the interregional plan are described
below for each phase of the hurricane emergency.

Normal Conditions

Representatives of the participating agencies involved
in the plan will meet on a regular basis to enhance ongoing
coordination among the agencies and identify problems with
the implementation of the plan.

This group should meet as a permanent committee, and
focus on the regional aspects of hurricane planning and
operations. Activities of the committee may include:

- testing of the plan
- review of the institutional arrangements for
coordination
- improvement of public awareness of hurricane hazards
- exchange information on ways to improve disaster
response and recovery.

Emergency Conditions

As a hurricane develops and threatens land areas, the
National Hurricane Center will issue a hurricane watch twenty
four to forty-eight hours before landfall. This alerts
threatened areas to potential storm conditions. A hurricane
warning should be issued according to the recommended evacu-
ation order times in this report. These warnings are issued
to the State Bureau of Emergency Management as well as
county civil defense offices.

Post Emergency Conditions

As the hurricane hazard recedes from the region,, the
Area Coordinator should continue to act as the liaison between
coastal and inland counties. Information on when it is safe
to return to effected areas can be transmitted to the inland
county civil defense offices. The Area office should also
assist where ever possible in an expedient and effective
disaster recovery process.

After recovery has been completed, the interregional
committee should meet to evaluate the plan as implemented
and identify any problems that may have occurred.

Public Notification

During non-emergency periods, public information and
education is disseminated by various agencies through news
releases, news features, and radio and television programs.
Such activity serves to increase awareness of emergency
preparedness programs and provides the citizens with a
knowledge of the basic precautions necessary during an
emergency.

During emergency periods, it is necessary to provide the
public with clear, concise, and timely information and
instructions to the general public. It is important that one
single agency in each jurisdiction be designated as the
sources of public information in an emergency. This will
avoid the issuance of conflicting reports and provide a con-
tinuous flow of information regarding governmental decisionst
recommendations and instructions. Public notification and
instructions will be issued by the civil preparedness agency
within each respective jurisdiction. This information should
be disseminated after consultation and coordination with the
Central Florida Area office, Bureau of Emergency Management.

While primary responsibility for public notification is
conferred to the respective civil preparedness agencies, it
is suggested that the procedures below be incorporated into
the public notification process to improve interregional
coordination. These suggestions are divided into three
phases: normal, emergency, and post emergency conditions.

Normal

Public information materials developed as part of the
Regional Hurricane Evacuation Plan (and prepared by the Regional
Planning Council) should be disseminated to coastal and
inland residents. This material will educate the public on
hurricane hazards, and provide instructions based on the
findings of the inland shelter study. The material will,
identify the sources of further information and assistance
during the emergency phase.

Emergency

It is suggested that as the emergency approaches, an
emergency public information officer be activated to act as
the only official sources of public information for that
jurisdiction. This officer should be pre-designated and in
constant communication with the National Hurricane Center,
surrounding EOC's and CEFA.

Evacuation and sheltering instructions on cassette tapes
or radio scripts which have been prepared beforehand can be
dissminated at this time. In the print media, area news-
papers could print hurricane supplements which have been
prepared in cooperation with the civil preparedness agency.

Post Emer!jency

In this phase the public information officer should
continue to be the official source of public information
and should receive information from various service agencies
for dissemination to the public. The officer should assist
State and Federal officers in local dissemination of infor-
mation concerning their programs.

Personnel for Reception Centers and Shelters

Assignment and notification of personnel to emergency
facilities is the responsibility of the county civil defense
director. The mobilization of emergency personnel will
follow the issuance of an evacuation order. Through consul-
tation with CEFA, the civil defense director should have a
good idea of the timing and scope of the evacuation in
coastal areas. He may then mobilize county resources to the
required level.

To ensure that shelters and reception centers are pro-
perly staffed in an emergency, it is suggested that procedures
be established for assignment and notification of personnel.
These procedures should be developed as part of a plan of
action that is consistent with the regional plan and relevant
to the needs and resources of the county.

Suggested Plan of Action

Key members of dounty government, the Red Cross and
other agencies should meet with the ci*il defense director as
a group to establish the roles and responsibilities of the
participants. A plan of action can be devised to acquaint
each member with the duties that his organization is expected
to perform.

The group or committee is put on call with the issuance
of the hurricane watch. Key members of the committee (those
in charge of a county division for example) would meet with
the civil defense officer to review plans, and determine
readiness of equipment, supplies and personnel.

Several hours prior to the recommended evacuation order
times, the key personnel would activate their departmental or
agency emergency plans, and alert and maintain communications
with personnel. As evacuation are announced, the committee
would monitor the situation and respond to instructions from
the civil defense officer.

Prior to the recommended evacuation order times, the EOC
should be fully operational with each participant performing
assigned duties and tasks. Emergency operations would be in
full swing and involve several different areas:

- communication with the Red Cross for shelter openings
- broadcast of hurricane precautions
- communications with public utilities
- law enforcement: patrols, road blocks, rescues
- coordination of emergency services and needs

With the onslaught of the hurricane, activities in the
affected areas are halted. The progress of the storm and
emergency operations are monitored at the EOC.

After the danger has passed, post disaster operations
will be initiated. A written report and evaluation should
be provided to the civil defense officer.

410

CHAPTER VII

LOCAL COORDINATIVE MECHANISM

Plan of Action

The Levy County Civil Defense Department has not yet
developed the hurricane evacuation element of its Local
Peacetime Emergency Plan.

It is suggested that the plan of action presented in
Chapter VI, Regional Coordinative Mechanism can be used as
a general framework for a local plan of action until the
Levy County hurricane evacuation element is developed.

Traffic Control Points

Traffic control points are points along the county
evacuation network used to direct traffic, resolve con-
gestion problems and to divert traffic to other shelter
destinations when the capacity of public shelters is reached.

It is recommended that the "nodes" indicated on map 2
be used as a basis for designating traffic control points
in the county. In addition, Appendix B shows the projected
amount of traffic on each of the links in the evacuation
network during the evacuation. This information can also
be used to determine traffic control points.

Shelter Assignments

Shelter assignments refer to the assignment of vulner-
able persons within each evacuation zone to a particular
shelter destination in the same or another evacuation zone.
The assignment of individuals to public shelter destinations
is based on the results of the transportation model.

The assignment of vulnerable residents requiring public
shelter to public shelter destinations follow a three-phased
procedure: designation of reception centers, assignment of
intra-county evacuees and assignment of intercounty evacuees.

Designation of Reception Centers. In order to prevent
the unnecessary opening of public shelters and thereby con-
serve needed evacuation manpower, evacuees will be first
assigned to a reception center. A reception center is a key

primary public shelter which will serve as a control point
for opening additional public shelters. One reception center
will be opened in each evacuation zone which contains at
least one primary public shelter. During the evacuation
process, as it becomes apparent that the capacity of the
reception center will be exceeded, other primary public
shelters in the evacuation zone or surrounding evacuation
zones can be opened through a communications network.

The criteria for the designation of reception centers
are those primary shelters in each evacuation zone which
have the greatest shelter capacity and are the most feasible
for use as public shelter. Reception centers and associated
primary public shelters for Levy County are presented
in table 12.

Intra-County Assignment. The goal of the intra-county
shelter assignment is to minimize clearance time. As part
of the transportation model, vulnerable intra-county resi-.
dents were a5signed to primary public shelter locations in
each county. / I
The logic of this shelter assignment can be seen by
comparing table 13 with map 2. Table 13 shows the "paths"
by which the vulnerable residents of an evacuation zone
proceed to their primary shelter destinations. This is
represented conceptually on map 2 with evacuation zone
centers, or centroids, and street or intersection locations,
or nodes.

By.following these paths, it can be seen that the vul-
nerable residents of each evacuation zone are assigned to
the nearest primary shelter location until all the avail-
able primary shelters in the destination evacuation zone are
utilized. If there is any overflow, the remaining evacuees
are assigned to the nearest available primary public shelter.

Inter-County Assignment. In the case of both the Withla-
coochee and Tampa Bay regions evacuating (Regional Scenario
C), it is assumed that a certain percentage of the Tampa Bay
evacuees will enter the coastal counties via U.S. 41.

Under this scenario, the first reception center nearest
U.S. 41 in each coastal county shall be designated as an
inter-regional control center. These centers will monitor
the number of incoming intra- and inter-regional evacuees
and disseminate them, first among available primary shelter
capacity and then to secondary shelters, if primary shelter
capacity is exceeded.

2/ It was assumed in the assignment of intra-county
evacuees that primary public shelters would be opened first.
Since there is adequate primary shelter capacity for coastal
county evacuees, no secondary shelters were used in the
assignment.
42

TABLE 12

RECEPTION CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SHELTERS

Levy County

Evacuation Reception Associated Primary
Zone Center Shelters

L4 (L8) Yankeetown School None

L9 *(L7) Williston High (L3) Joyce Bullock
School Elementary School

(L7) Williston Intermediate
School

L10 (Ll, Bronson High and None
L2) Elementary Schools

L12 (L4) Chiefland (L5) Chiefland High
Elementary School School

l/ Asterisk indicates inter-regional reception center.

TABLE 13

LEVY COUNTY EVACUATION ROUTES
TO PUBLIC SHELTER

L01-L104, L126, L105, L106, L107, L125, L101-L12 or L01-L103,
L102, L125, L101-1,12

L02-L105, L106, L108, L110, L122-LlO

L03-1,113, L114, L115, L116, L119, L120, L121-LO9

L04-LO4 (Flood Level A); L04-1,114, L115, L116, L119, L120, L121-
L09 (Flood Level B)

L05-1,108, L110, L122-LlO or L05-Llll, L112, L110, L122-LlO
L06-1,107, L125, L101-1,12 or L06-L103, L102, L125, L101-L12

L07, L110, L122-LlO

W8-1,116, L119, L120, L12 1-1,09 or L08-L117, L118, L119, L120,
1,121-1,09

L09-LO9

L10-LlO

Lll-Ll09,. L101-L12 or Lll-L124, L101-L12

L12-L12

L13-1,102, L125, L101-L12 or L 3-L100, L101-L12

Source: Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, Inc.

I
I APPENDIX
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

7APPENDIX A

LEVY COUNTY
EVACUATION ZONE BOUNDARIES

Evacuation
Zone Zone Boundary Description

LI South of Suwannee River; west of CR 347 and SR 24; all of
Cedar Key; north and east of Gulf of Mexico

L2 South of SR 24 and Main Line Road; west of Waccasassa River;
north of Gulf of Mexico; east of SR 24

L3 South of Wacassassa River and Robinson Road; west of two
miles west of US 19; north of Levy County line; east of Gulf of
Mexico

L4 South of CR 336; west of US 19; all of Inglis; north of Levy
county line; east of two miles west of US 19

L5 South of two miles north of Main Line Road; west of US 19;
north of Robinson Road and Main Line Road; east of Rocky Run

L6 South of Suwannee River, two miles northeast of CR 347 and
Purdue Road; west of Rocky Run; north of Main Line Road and
SR 24; east of CR 347

L7 South of SR 24 and Yearty Road; west of 01 Road #4 and #7;
north of two miles north of Main Line Road; east of Rocky Run

L8 South of Osteen Road; west of CR 337 and Levy County line;
north of Levy County line; east of US 19, 01 Road #4 and #7.

L9 South of CR 343; west of Levy County line; north of Levy
County line; east of CR 337 and Williston Highlands area Road

L10 South of Levy County line; west of Levy County line; north of
CR 343 and Osteen Road; east of Waccasassa River

L11 South of Levy County line; west of Waccasassa River; north of
Otter Creek; east of CR 336, CR 330, Chiefland, railroad and
SR 49

L12 Chiefland city limits

L13 South of Suwannee River and Levy County line; west of SR 49,
railroad, Chiefland, CR 330 and CR 336; north of two miles
north of Main Line Road, Purdue Road and Moody Road; east of
two miles east of CR 347

A-1

APPENDIX B

Levy County
Assigned Link Volumes and V/C Ratios

TOTAL LINK VOLUME Service VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIO
Link A A w/tb B B w/tS' 7-ol-ume A A w/tb B B W/tET

100-101 260 260 297 297 32400 .008 .008 .009 .009
101-125 658 658 665 665 14600 .045 .045 .046 .046
102-125 634 634 233 233 10100 .063 .063 .023 .023
102-103 475 475 92 92 10100 .047 .047 .009 .009
103-126 455 455 0 0 10100 .045 .045 .000 .000
104-126 870 870 804 804 14600 .060 .060 .055 .055
105-126 415 415 804 804 14600 .028 .028 .055 .055
105-106 449 449 838 838 14600 .031 .031 .057 .057
106-107 51 51 20 20 14600 .003 .003 .001 .001
107-125 24 24 431 431 14600 .002 .002 .030 .030
106-108 430 00 495 495 14600 .029 .029 .034 .034
108-110 440 440 527 527 14600 .030 .030 .036 .036
101-109 140 140 164 164 25900 .005 .005 .006 .006
109-110 77 77 155 155 25900 .003 .003 .006 .006
110-112 83 83 166 166 25900 .003 .003 .006 .006
111-112 0 0 0 0 10100 .000 .000 .000 .000
112-115 83 83 173 173 25900 .003 .003 .007 .007
114-115 976 976 1833 1833 25900 .038 .038 .071 .071
113-114 914 914 916 916 11300 .081 .081 .081 .081
115-116 892 892 1664 1664 14600 .061 .061 .114 .114
112-117 0 0 0 0 10100 .000 .000 .000 .000
117-118 71 71 26 26 10100 .009 .009 .003 .003
116-119 964 964 1-742 1742 14600 .066 .066 .119 .119
119-120 1035 1035 1768 1768 14600 .071 .071 .121 .121
118-119 71 71 26 26 10100 .007 .007 .003 .003
120-121 1035 1035 1768 1768 11300 .092 .092 .156 .156
121-122 769 769 812 812 14200 .054 .054 .057 .057
110-122 485 485 579 579 14600 .033 .033 .040 .040
122-123 152 152 152 152 14200 .011 .011 .011 .011
123-124 152 152 152 152 14600 .010 .010 .010 .010
101-124 216 216 213 213 14200 .015 .015 .015 .015
200-121 654 654 772 772 14600 .045 .045 .053 .053
201-121 653 653 772 772 14600 .045 .045 .053 .053
202-120 0 0 0 0 14600 .000 .000 .000 .000
203-115 0 0 0 0 14600 .000 .000 .000 .000
203-114 0 0 0 0 14200 .000 .000 .000 .000

B-1

APPENDIX C

LEGAL AUTHORITY TO ISSUE AN EVACUATION ORDER

In any hurricane evacuation, one of the most critical
components of the decision-making process for local govern-
ment officials is the timely issuance of the evacuation order
to the endangered population. Within the State of Florida,
the decision-making authority and power to order evacuation
has been conferred or delegated to three different levels of
government: state, county and municipal. Such emergency
powers at the various levels. of government are also innate
responsibilities of the particular jurisdictions to safeguard
the lives and property of their citizens. The Governor is
empowered to issue an evacuation order; however, in the
event that the Governor fails to order evacuation as early
as required by local conditions, then the Board of County
Commissioners may order evacuation within its physical boun-
daries. The same is true for a mayor of any municipality in
the region. However, the evacuation order of a higher level
of government is binding upon a lower level of government.

The authority to order evacuation of threatened Florida
residents from an approaching hurricane is conferred to the
Governor by Chapter 252.36 (5)(c) of the Florida Statutes,
stating that the Governor may:

"...direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of
the population from any stricken or threatened area
within the State if he deems this action necessary for
the preservation of life or other disaster mitigation,
response or recovery."

This power to order evacuation from an approaching hurricane
conferred upon the Governor by Statutes is delegated to the
governing body of each political subdivision of the State by
Executive Order 80-29. The term "political subdivision" is
defined under the Statute as "any County or municipality.
created pursuant to law." The delegation of authority em-
powers the chief elected official of a county or munici-
pality to order an evacuation from any approaching storm.

The diffusion of the authority to issue an evacuation
order does not create problems during a localized evacu-
ation. However, in the case of a hurricane which threatens
the coastal residents of the Withlacoochee or Tampa Bay
Regions, it, by necessity, demands detailed inter-jurisdic-
tional coordination. This is especially true in the event of
the evacuation of the highly population Tampa Bay Region with
its many municipal and county jurisdictions all with the
power to issue an evacuation order. An evacuation order not

C-1

coordinated between municipal, and county officials can have
a devastating impact upon the evacuation jurisdiction as well
as surrounding jurisdictions. Prior to the evacuation order,
region-wide traffic control and coordinated opening of the
shelters should be established. Since a portion of the Irampa
Bay evacuees will seek shelter in the Withlacoochee Region,
a mechanism of coordination is needed to alert officials in
the probable "host" counties of the impending evacuation. A
proposed mechanism to achieve this coordination is described
in Chapter VI, Regional Coordinative Mechanism.

C-2

WITHLACOOCHEE REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCIL

STAFF

James D. Mims Ed Isenhour'
Executive Director Planning Intern

Lorene Finch William Scarff
Administrative Assistant Research Assistant/Housing
Rehabilitation Specialist

Peggy Alexander Vivian A. Whittier
Finance Director Research Assistant/Information
Specialist

Charlotte Neupauer Lynn Rich
Full Charge Bookkeeper Research Assistant/Information
Specialist

William E. Taylor Glenda Roberts
Graphics Chief Secretarial Supervisor

Joyce E. Cusick Kim Greene
Senior Planner/Community Secretary II
Development

Kevin Smith Dedra Freeman
Principal-Planner Secretary I

*Mark Sinclair Tonja Edmondson
Principal Planner General Clerical Assistant

Oliver Pinkston Doris Pullings
Planning Intern General Clerical Assistant

Taylor Warner
Planning Intern

*Planner responsible for the preparation of this report.

I
i
i
I
i
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1

3 6668 14101 8863
I I