    [From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

                                                                                                                                          HURRICANE EVACUATION
                                                                                                                                                                  STUDY

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                             H U R R I C A N E     E V A C U A T 1 0 N     S T U D Y

                                                      F 0 R

                                    E A S T    C E N T R A L    F L 0 R 1 0 A

                                                  FINAL REPORT

                                                    JUNE 1984

                                East Central Florida Regional Planning Council
                                           1011 Wymore Road, Suite 105
                                             Winter Park, FL 32789

                       The preparation of this report was primarily supported by a grant
                       from the U.S. Office of Coastal Management, National Oceanic and
                       Atmospheric Administration; and the Florida Office of Coastal
                       Management, Department of Environmental Regulation, through the
                       Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended.        Supplemental
                       funding was provided by the Florida Department of Community
                       Affairs.

                                                TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                                             Page

                  INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                           1

                  HAZARD ELEMENT

                       Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                         5
                       History of Hurricane Activity    . . . . . . . . . . .                  5
                       Hurricane Hazards    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                      7
                       Methodology   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                        10
                       Hazard Analysis Output  . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                    22

                  VULNERABILITY ELEMENT

                       Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..                       41
                       Methodology   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                        41
                       Levels of Vulnerability    . . . . . . . . . . . . .                   42
                       Evacuation Zones  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                      43
                       Population-at-Risk   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                     51

                  BEHAVIORAL SURVEY ELEMENT

                       Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                        55
                       Methodology   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                        55
                       Analysis   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                         59
                       Comparisons to Other Studies  . . . . . . . . . . . .                  63
                       Conclusions   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                        66

                  SHELTER ELEMENT           %

                       Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                        69
                       Shelter Inventory    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                     69
                       Shelter/Medical Facility Surge  Analysis   . . . . . . . .             93
                       Shelter Demand    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                     109
                       Shelter Capacity  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                     112
                       Public Shelter Assignments    o  . . . . . . . . . . .                112
                       Alternate Shelters   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                    114

                                            TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)

                                                                                             page

                 TRANSPORTATION ELEMENT

                       Introduction . . . o       . . . . . . . . . . . . .                  117
                       Study Approach    o . . . . . o         . . . . . .        o          117
                       Methodology   . . . . .       o .                                     118
                       Transportation Modeling Input Assumpti;ns'                            120
                       Evacuation Time Requirements  . . . . . . . . . .             o       135

                 WARNING ELEMENT

                       Existing Warning System    . . . . . . . . . . .              o       141
                       Guide for Evacuation Decision-Making    . . . . . . . . .             143
                       Public Behavior   . . . . . . . .          o  . . . . . . .           145
                       Early Arrival of Heavy Rains  . . . .      o        o  . . . .        145
                       Actual Vs. Hypothetical Hurricane    .     o  o  . . . . . .          145
                       Public Information and the Media     . . . . . . . . . .              146

                 APPENDICES

                       List of Appendices   . . . . .       o  . . . . . . . . .             147

                                                   LIST OF TABLES

                  Number     Title                                                               Page

                    I        Hurricanes Passing within 60 Nautical Miles of
                                28.37 N. 80.41 W., Titusville, FL., 1886-1981     . . . .           6

                    2        Freshwater Roadway Inundation Analysis -
                                Summary   .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .                       11
                    3        Hurricanes Simulated by SPLASH II           . e   .         a        13

                    4        Hazard Analysis Concept . o      . . . . . . . . . .                 20

                    5        Storm Surge Heights at Selected Points      (Normal
                                Landfalling Hurricanes)    . . . . . . . . . . .                  26

                    6        Hurricane Hazards for Modeled Storms        . . . .                  31

                    7        Category of Hurricane/Level of Threat Conversion        . . .        42

                    8        Evacuation Zones--Traffic Analysis Zones
                                Brevard County   . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                      44
                                Volusia County   . . . . . . . .           . . . . . .            46

                    9        Storm Evacuation   Zone Boundaries
                                Brevard County   . . . . . . .           o . o              o     48
                                Volusia County . . o       .. . . . . . . . .            o .      49

                    10       Population & Vehicle Productions     by Evacuation  Zone
                                & Destination (Brevard County)    . . . . . . . .           o     52

                    11       Population & Vehicle Productions     by Evacuation  Zone
                                & Destination (Volusia County)    . . . . . . . . .               53
                    12       Behavioral Survey Results     . . . . . . .. . . . .                 57

                    13       Com arison Matrix of Behavioral    Surveys within
                                Mrida      . . . . .       o  . . . . . . . . . .                 64

                    14       Shelter Inventory
                                   Volusia County, East    . . . . . . . . . . .                  70
                                   Volusia County, West    . . . . . . .          o      o        76
                                   Brevard County, North          o  o   . . . . . . .            79
                                   Brevard County, Central    . . .      o . . . . . .            82
                                   Brevard County, South          o  o   . . o    . . . .         86

                   15       Surge Vulnerability Analysis
                                  Brevard County
                                     Group Homes  . . . . . . . . . . . . .                   94
                                     Hospitals    . o . o         . . . . . . . .             94
                                     Nursing Homes   . o    . . . . . . . . . . .             95
                                     Public Shelters, North    . . . . .                      96
                                     Public Shelters, Central                                 97
                                     Public Shelters, South    . . . . . . . . .              99
                                  Volusia County
                                     Group Homes  . . . . . . . . . . . . .                  103
                                     Hospitals        o o   . . . . . . . . . .              104
                                     Nursing Homes                   o  . . . . . .          105
                                     Public Shelters, East  . . . . . . . . . .              106

                   16       Behaviorial Survey Response -   Destinations   . . . . .         110

                   17       Comparison of Behavioral Surveys within Florida       . . .      ill

                   18       Shelter Capacity    . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                  113

                   19       Alternate Shelter Analysis - Brevard Co.
                               (Hotels/Motels)           o                           0       115

                   20       Transportation Modeling Regional Storm Scenarios      . . .      121

                   21       Vehicle Productions
                               Volusia County
                                  Category 1-2 Storm Situation    . . . . . . . .            125
                                  Category 3-5 Storm Situation    . . . . . . . .            127
                               Brevard County
                                  Category 1-2 Storm Situation    . . . . . . . .            129
                                  Category 3-5 Storm Situation    . . . . . . . .            130

                   22       Evacuation Routing Scheme
                               Brevard County   . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                  131
                               Volusia County   . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                  132

                   23       Transportation Evacuation Times
                               Brevard County   . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                  136
                               Volusia County . o     . . . . . . . . . . . .                137

                   24       Regional Storm Scenarios (Required Time for
                               Evacuation Order by County)     . . . . . . .         o       140

                                                   LIST OF FIGURES

                   Number     Title                                                            Page

                     I        Freshwater Roadway Inundation Analysis     . . . . . .            12

                     2        Landfalling Hurricanes  . . . . . . . . . . . .                   15

                     3        Crossing/Exiting Hurricanes   . . . . . . . . . .                 16

                     4        Paralleling Hurricanes     . . . . . . . . . . .                  17

                     5        Space-Time Plot of Coastal Surges    . . . . . . . .              23

                     6        Storm Surge Envelope for Hurricane
                                Displayed in Figure 5    . . . . . . . . . . .                  25

                     7        Surge Profile -- Landfalling Hurricanes    . . . . . .            27

                     8        Space-Time Plot of Coastal Wind Speed
                                (Category 4, Normal Landfalling)   . . . . . . . .              29

                     9        Surge Profile     Crossing/Exiting Hurricanes    . . . .          33

                    10        Surge Profile     Paralleling Hurricane:
                                20 Miles Inland    . . . . . . . . . . . . .                    35

                    11        Surge Profile     Paralleling Hurricane:
                                On Coastline    . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                     36

                    12        Surge Profile     Paralleling Hurricane:
                                20 Miles.Offshore  . . . . . . . . . . . . .                    37

                    13        Surge Profile -- Paralleling  Hurricane:
                                40 Miles Offshore  . . . . . . . . . . . . .                    38

                    14        Surge Profile -- Paralleling  Hurricane:
                                60 Miles Offshore  . . . . . . . . . .                          39

                    15        Estimation of Cumulative Demand (Behavioral
                                Response Curves)   . . . . . . . . .. . . .              o      123

                    16        Hurricane Warning System   . . . . . . . . . . .                  142

                                                 INTRODUCTION

                The State of Florida is recognized as an area highly vulnerable to the
                destructive effects of a hurricane.         The great length of the State's
                shoreline, characterized by low-lying coastal topography and numerous tidal
                inlets, offers little protection from the hazards produced by a major
                storm. This vulnerability is enhanced by the historically high probability
                of the State being subjected to a hurricane each year.

                As rapid development continues to occur along Florida's coast, the
                potential for a major disaster as a result of this vulnerability increases
                each year.     Those areas most susceptible to the destructive forces of a
                hurricane--barrier     islands--are also the areas most         attractive     to
                development and resulting population growth.        It is estimated that over
                seven million persons reside in the coastal areas of Florida, the majority
                of whom have never experienced the effects of a hurricane.

                To reduce the potential for a major disaster along the State's            coastal
                areas, the Florida Department of Community Affairs has undertaken a       program
                to develop a series of coordinated hurricane evacuation studies throughout
                the State.     These studies are regional in nature--in that they recognize
                that the destructive forces of a hurricane are not limited to one community
                or county, but extend regionwide.       As such, regional planning councils
                encompassing coastal counties within their boundaries have been selected to
                prepare individual studies for their areas.

                The central issue to be addressed by each of these studies is the timing of
                issuing an evacuation order.        There is a point in time relative to
                hurricane landfall when state and local authorities must order                 an
                evacuation of vulnerable areas if there is to be sufficient time available
                for residents to move to safety. In the past, when coastal areas were less
                developed and many areas still retained rural development characteristics,
                consideration of when an evacuation should begin was not a major concern.
                Most areas could complete their evacuation within the 12 hours of warning
                time provided by the National Hurricane Center.      This may no longer be the
                case, however, for many of the rapidly development coastal communities in
                Florida.    As the population along these areas continues to expand, the
                length of time needed for evacuation also expands, and the importance of
                quantifying and incorporating this variable into evacuation decisions
                increases.

                      There are two major conditions influencing the parameter of time required
                      for the evacuation of   any given area. These are:

                           1.    The volume of traffic that may be expected to utilize the
                                 evacuation   routes and the capacity of these routes to
                                 accommodate  the traffic within a certain time period.

                           2.    The time in  which the arrival of the storm surge and/or high
                                 winds may    adversely affect the ability, of residents to
                                 safely evacuate vulnerable areas.

                      Consideration of these two factors forms the basis for development of the
                      hurricane    evacuation studies.       These studies should        assist    local
                      governments in determining the probable impacts of a hurricane approaching
                      their area and serve as a decision-making tool for local response to these
                      conditions.    They are meant to guide local disaster preparedness officials
                      in determining when and to what extent evacuation must take place based
                      upon information released by the National Weather Service as the hurricane
                      approaches.    The development of these studies is not intended to describe
                      how an evacuation should be carried out or develop procedures for
                      implementing the evacuation. That is a function of the local Civil Defense
                    .offices and, as such, is beyond the scope of these work efforts.

                      The Hurricane Evacuation Study for East Central Florida includes 13 work
                      elements.    These work elements provide a basis from which evacuation times
                      may   be measured by identifying and quantifying the major                  factors
                      contributing to the hurricane vulnerability of the region. The major tasks
                      accomplished as part of the program are as follows:

                      Hazard Analysis

                           A comprehensive analysis of the potential hurricane hazards to the
                           East Central Florida coastal areas.

                      Vulnerability Analysis

                           An identification of the areas of Volusia and Brevard counties
                           vulnerable to specific hurricane hazards.

                      Population Data

                           A systematic enumeration of the dwelling units and population within
                           the identified vulnerable areas.

                      Behavioral Data

                           A statistically significant investigation of the probable tendencies
                           of potential evacuees.

                                                               2

                   Surge Roadway Inundation Analysis

                        An identification of low-lying roadways within vulnerable areas and an
                        analysis of their susceptibility to storm surge inundation.

                   Shelter Data

                        An inventory of existing public shelter characteristics and shelter
                        capacity analysis.

                   Freshwater Roadway Inundation Analysis

                        An identification of historically inundated roadways from rainfall
                        flooding.

                   Shelter/Medical Facility Surge Analysis

                        An analysis of the geographic storm surge vulnerability of existing
                        public shelter structures and hospital/nursing home structures.

                   Evacuation Zones

                        A delineation of the vulnerable areas into evacuation zones with
                        common hazard vulnerability and common evacuation routes.

                   Evacuation Routes

                        The assignment of evacuation vehicle volumes from specific zones to
                        specific routes to develop optimum intra- and inter-county routing
                        strategies.

                   Shelter Assignment

                        The assignment of specific evacuation zones to specific shelters based
                        on evacuation routing strategies and shelter capacities.

                   Clearance Time

                        The calculation of vehicle volume traveling times associated with the
                        movement of the enumerated vulnerable population from             specific
                        vulnerable evacuation zones to specific evacuation destinations.

                   Evacuation Time

                        The   formulation of recommendations for the timing of             issuing
                        evacuation orders based on all components of evacuation time analyzed.

                                                         3

                                               HAZARD ELEMENT

               INTRODUCTION

               The first step in the development of the Hurricane Evacuation Study is to
               examine the expected hazards that would require the actual evacuation of
               residents in Brevard and Volusia counties.     This section will identify and
               analyze the predicted hazards that may be expected to occur based on a
               number of hypothetical hurricanes which have been simulated by the National
               Hurricane Center for this Study. Included as part of this analysis are the
               following:    a history of hurricane activity for the coastal areas of East
               Central Florida; hazards to be considered in the analysis; the methodology
               used to predict the hazards of probable hurricane events; concepts and
               assumptions to be utilized in quantifying the hazards; and results of the
               analysis.

               HISTORY OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY

               The basis upon which this Study is to be developed is to plan for the worst
               probable hurricane events that may impact the East Central Florida coast.
               As such, it is neither necessary nor appropriate to assign quantitative
               probabilities to the hypothetical hurricanes considered for analysis.
               However, the general probability considered in the selection of the
               hypothetical hurricanes by the National Hurricane Center was based on past
               historical hurricane activity in this region, in addition to what was found
               to   be meteorologically probable.        Such historical activity can be
               summarized in Table I which identifies 16 hurricanes as having passed
               within 60 nautical miles of the City of Titusville, the center point of the
               region's coast.

               The National Hurricane Center has officially designated the months between
               June through November as "hurricane season," when the ocean temperatures
               are at their warmest. Hurricanes will form only over tropical oceans where
               the water temperature exceeds 790F.       In examining periods of hurricane
               activity, it should be noted that there are important seasonal changes in
               the   areas of hurricane formation,        due to large-scale       atmospheric
               circulation patterns.     These patterns include the Bermuda High and the
               circulation features at upper levels over the western Atlantic and
               Caribbean regions.    Hurricane track charts compiled by NOAA indicate that
               the majority of the hurricanes formed in June and July develop in the Gulf
               of Mexico.   During August and September, hurricane activity shifts to the
               Atlantic where most of the storms affecting Florida form east of the
               Caribbean and approach the State from the southeast.        By September and
               October, weather patterns have shifted again--hurricane formation is
               focused in the western Caribbean and storms approaching Florida will do so
               from the southwest.     As can be noted in Table 1, the period of greatest

                                                      5

                                                                TABLE I

                             HURRICANES PASSING WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 28.37 N. 80.41 W.

                                                     TITUSVILLE, FL., 1886-1981

                                                        Closest Point**               Distance
                         Starting Date        Name*          of           Date at       to         Wind Speed*** Saffir
                                                          Approach        C. P . !C-  C.T.A.      (Knots per hr.) Timpson
                                                          M.P.A.)                                                     Scale
                                                       (Lat.T7-Lo n
                            8/15/1887      Not Named   28.6N     79.6W    08/20       49.NM            105              3
                          08/15/1893       Not Named   28.611    80.1W    08/27       .29.NM           105              3
                          09/25/1893       Not Named   28.5N     79.9W    10/12       34.NM              96             2
                          09/18/1894       Not Named   28.6N     81.5W    09/26       54.NM              84.            2
                          10/07/1896       Not Named   27.8N     80.OW    10/09       44.NM              74             1
                          08/03/1899       Not Named   28.4N     80.OW    08/14       27.NM            105              3
                          10/20/1921       Not Named   29.1N     80.7W    10/26       42.NM              82             1
                          11/29/1925       Not Named   28.7N     81.2W    12/01       41.NM              64             1
                          07/22/1926       Not Named   28.3N     80.6W    07/28         6.NM             82             1
                          08/03/1928       Not Named   28.ON     80.9W    08/08       32.NM              80             1
                          07/25/1933       Not Named   27.4N     80.5W    07/31       58.NM              67             1
                          08/07/1939       Not Named   27.7N     81-OW    08/12       48 NM              68             1
                          08/23/1949       Not Named   27.6N     81.2W    08/27       59:NM'           100              3
                          10/13/1950       KING        28-1N     81.3W    10/18       44.NM              71             1
                          08/20/1964       CLEO        28-3N     80-9w    08/28       19.NM              7g
                          08/25/1979       DAVID       28.4N     80.6W    09/04         5.NM             8

                     *Stoms were not formally    named prior   to 1950.
                    "These columns give location and time      of closest approach and distance of storm center to      site.
                  ***Maximum sustained wind speed near storm center while storm center is within specified distance
                      from site. This is not necessarily the wind recorded at given site.

                 frequency of hurricane a  ctivity for East Central Florida is the three-month
                 period of August to October.        Of the hurricanes passing through this
                 region, 81% have historically occurred during this period.

                 HURRICANE HAZARDS

                 The major characteristic associated with hurricanes is the exceptional
                 amount of energy associated with this type of storm.           This energy is
                 capable of generating immense destructive forces that may                threaten
                 thousands of coastal residents and hundreds of miles of coastline as it
                 approaches land.     This study is primarily concerned with the three major
                 hazards associated with hurricanes:      storm surge; high winds; freshwater
                 flooding.   Each of these hazards constitutes a major destructive force
                 which may require the evacuation of residents, as well as impede the
                 ability of these residents to safely evacuate.      Of these, storm surge has
                 proven to be the most destructive in terms of loss of life.               It is
                 estimated that since 1900, 90% of all fatalities in major storms have
                 occurred as a result of saltwater drowning.          High winds are also a
                 potentially devastating force, particularly to persons caught outside and
                 to structures such as mobile homes that are not built to specific hurricane
                 resistance codes.     To a lesser extent, freshwater flooding from rainfall
                 may also prove dangerous to residents and destructive to property.          Heavy
                 rainfall advancing with the hurricane may inundate poorly drained areas and
                 effectively block evacuation routes.

                 Storm Surge

                 For coastal areas, an increase in the ocean's surface level resulting in
                 the inundation of beach areas and low-lying inland areas is the main source
                 of destruction during a hurricane. Storm surges have been recorded as high
                 as 24 feet above MSL (Hurricane Camille, 1969) and extending over 50 miles
                 along the coast.      Combined with its breaking waves and the normal
                 astronomical tide which is superimposed onto it, the storm surge acts like
                 a giant bulldozer sweeping everything away in its path.         The higher the
                 surge grows over the sea, the more land will be inundated by the
                 propagation of its waters over low-lying land.

                 The storm surge is the creation of a number of factors occurring within and
                 around the hurricane.      Primarily, it is the result of the barometric
                 pressure drop at the eye of the hurricane.      The higher pressure exerted on
                 the water surface outside the hurricane center forces water down and into
                 the low pressure area, creating a dome of water.        This dome of water is
                 contained by the high winds on the forward side of the hurricane, producing
                 a "damming effect" against the strong winds from the opposite side of the
                 storm,   The dome of water is carried with the hurricane as it moves toward
                 land.

                                                           7

                    The storm surge in any given area is proportional to the pressure drop of
                    the hurricane center.     The greater the pressure drop, the higher tile storm
                    surge that can be expected. A number of other factors, however, contribute
                    to the propagation of the surge and may reduce it or increase it from what
                    could be expected with the single consideration of pressure.                 These
                    include: the size and intensity of,the storm; its forward speed; angle and
                    position of the storm as it moves toward land; the offshore bottom
                    conditions (depth and slope); the physical configuration of the coastline.

                    Generally, shallow water off the coast where the hurricane comes ashore
                    increases the surge height. Also, the closer to perpendicular the storm is
                    to the coastline, the higher the expected surge height. Finally, increases
                    in the size of the storm or its forward speed will increase the surge.

                    As mentioned earlier, the wave setup and astronomical tide are superimposed
                    on the surge and increase its flooding potential.           "Wave setup" is a
                    technical term used to refer to'the ocean waves generated by the storm.
                    The height of the wave setup is a function of the relative height of the
                    ocean, which is, in turn, a function of the storm surge and astronomical
                    tide.   The maximum invasion of the coast will depend not only on the surge
                    heights, but on the daily and monthly tide cycle as well as any tide
                    enhancement (tidal anomaly) resulting from the general disturbance caused
                    by a hurricane.     This relationship of the wave invasion to the tide cycle
                    means that a greater threat would be posed by a hurricane which arrived
                    during those portions of the month and the time of day when the
                    gravitational tide is high.

                    The sand dunes along the coast constitute the primary bulwark against tidal
                    flooding.   These dunes are highest in northern Volusia County and southern
                    Brevard County and decrease to the south and north, respectively.            Other
                    mitigating factors include onshore vegetation and man-made alterations
                    which contribute to "friction factors" that serve to decrease the areas
                    affected by the flooding.

                    The value in predicting expected storm surge heights in this Study is
                    twofold.   First, the extent of land inundation is primarily determined for
                    the coastal area by the surge height.      The movement of a significant surge
                    into the nearshore areas will not only devastate low-lying terrain, but
                    provide a base on which its high waters can be driven further inland by
                    hurricane winds. Second, storm surges may inundate coastal roadways before
                    the eye of the hurricane actually makes landfall.       This would render such
                    potential evacuation routes useless to vehicles attempting to leave
                    vulnerable areas.

                    High Winds

                    Wind is the most commonly thought-of hazard associated with a hurricane.
                    Wind speeds may exceed 200 mph, although there are relatively few
                    measurements of sustained wind speeds above 150 mph since most equipment is

                                                            8

                 destroyed or becomes inoperative at extreme wind speeds.       The highest wind
                 speeds which have been reliably measured in Florida were those during the
                 hurricane of September 1947.       The maximum wind speed averaged over one
                 minute was approximately 155 mph, and the highest five-minute average was
                 121 mph.

                 Hurricane force winds are defined as those reaching or exceeding a
                 sustained wind velocity of 74 mph.      It should be noted, however, that an
                 increase in force exerted by these winds is not proportional to an increase
                 in the speed.      While the wind speed may double, the force of the wind
                 increases fourfold.     As an example, Hurricane David had a recorded maximum
                 wind speed of 55 mph over the region.       Should a hurricane the strength of
                 Camille impact the region with 220 mph winds, the force would be sixteen
                 times that experienced with Hurricane David.

                 A hurricane usually weakens very rapidly after moving inland.                This
                 weakening is due primarily to the removal of the energy source provided by
                 the warm tropical oceans and the friction exerted by the land surface.
                 With the weakening of the storm, winds are also reduced to the extent that
                 a few miles inland from the coast, windspeeds may only be 60-70% of their
                 speed at the open coast.

                 Any time wind velocity exceeds 50 mph, damaging effects can be expected.
                 In a high wind, severe damage can result not only from the wind itself, but
                 also from flying debris. While the effects of these winds present a hazard
                 to all residents, mobile home structures are the most vulnerable. A mobile
                 home is necessarily of light-weight construction, with flat roof and sides.
                 Because of these characteristics, high winds can easily destroy it or
                 flying debris severely damage it and cause injury to persons inside.
                 Consequently, the National Weather Service recommends that mobile home
                 residents move to more sound structures prior to the onset of hurricane
                 force winds.

                 The hazard associated with high wind is not limited to its potential for
                 destruction, but it must also be considered for its ability to interrupt
                 evacuation efforts.     Evacuation efforts cannot be safely carried out after
                 the arrival of sustained gale force winds (40 mph).       These winds generally
                 arrive several hours before hurricane eye landfall and generally before the
                 arrival of the storm surge.

                 Freshwater Flooding

                 Based on past history, it can be expected that approximately 6-12 inches of
                 rainfall will accompany a hurricane, although no predictive tools are
                 available for determining the rate and geographic distribution of such a
                 phenomenon.    While the event of rainfall itself may not necessitate an
                 emergency evacuation of coastal residents, it is significant in two
                 aspects.    First, the amount of rainfall largely governs the water level in
                 the Indian, Banana, and Halifax rivers.        Extensive rainfall in the weeks

                                                          9

                    preceding a hurricane will result in a high water level in the river
                    basins, requiring less water to overload them and resulting in flooding of
                    lower elevated land areas.    Second, in poorly drained areas such rainfall
                    may cause the early inundation of evacuation routes.         Intersections or
                    points of major roadways in Brevard and Volusia counties which may
                    experience significant freshwater roadway inundation are listed in Table 2
                    and illustrated in Figure 1.

                    METHODOLOGY

                    The major device utilized in this study in order to evaluate the potential
                    hazards of a hurricane striking the coast of Volusia or Brevard County is
                    the Special Program to List the Amplitudes of Surges from Hurricanes
                    (SPLASH II). The SPLASH II numerical storm surge prediction model was
                    developed at the Techniques Development Lab of the National Oceanic and
                    Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).     SPLASH II is a dynamic computer model
                    which estimates the potential amplitude, extent, and duration of hurricane-
                    produced surges for an entire coastline, resulting from a series of
                    hypothetical hurricane scenarios.

                    A total of 74 hypothetical hurricane scenarios were developed and simulated
                    by the SPLASH II model.    The various storm characteristics, or parameters,
                    which compose the scenarios were selected by surge forecasters and analysts
                    at the National Hurricane Center.     The selected parameters were based on
                    actual past history of hurricane activity and are considered to be
                    reasonable and probable predictions of future hurricane activity in Brevard
                    and Volusia counties.      The combination of the 74 scenarios which were
                    modeled covers the full spectrum of any hurricane activity which could
                    reasonably be expected to affect the coastline being studied.               The
                    parameters which comprise the scenarios include the location of direction
                    of the hurricane track, the size of the hurricane (radius of maximum wind),
                    the speed it is traveling, and the intensity of the hurricane measured by
                    pressure drop and wind velocity.        A listing   of the 74 hypothetical
                    hurricanes analyzed by.SPLASH II appears in Table   3.

                    To ensure that all probable hurricane events were   considered, three different
                    hurricane movements were modeled:        landfalling, exiting/crossing; and
                    paralleling.   These movements--as well as a representation of point of
                    landfall,   closest approach,     and angle of approach--are graphically
                    presented in Figures 2, 3, and 4.

                    The output of the SPLASH II model provides three major types of data on the
                    effects of the simulated hurricanes on East Central Florida.     They are as
                    follows:

                                                           10

                                                                       TABLE 2.

                                                  FRLStIWATER ROADWAY INUNDATION ANALYSIS - SUMMAPy

                                   Site Number'        Jurisdiction           Vulnerable Roadway Description

                          BREVARD  COUNTY

                                   1                   Cape Canaveral      AlA at the  intersection of Central Blvd.

                                   2                   Cape Canaveral      AlA at the intersection of No. Atlantic Ave.

                                   3                   Brevard County      Bennett Causeway (SR 528) on Merritt Islana
                                                     (unincorporated)      along Sykes Creek

                                   4                 Cocoa Beach           AIA at the intersection of Meade Ave.

                                   5                   Brevard County      Merritt Island Causeway (SR 520) between AlA
                                                     (unincorporated)/     and Sykes Creek Pkwy.
                                                        Cocoa Beach

                                   6                 Rockledge             US I at the intersection of Bougainvillea Dr.

                         VOLUSIA COUNTY

                                   I                   Orinond Beach       AIA at the intersection of !@eptune Ave.

                                   2                   Ormond Beach        US I at the intersection of Hernandez @-ve.,'Yunge St.

                                   3                   Ormond Beach        AlA at the intersection of Bovard Ave.

                                   4                   Holly Hill          US I at the intersec-tion of 6tn St.

                                   5                   Holly Hill          Us I at the intersectior; of 6th St.

                                   6                   Holly Hill          LIS I at the intersection of 2nd St.

                                   7                   Daytona Beach       US I at the intersection of Mason Ave.

                                   8                   Port Orange         western approach of Port Orange Bridge

                                   9                   Ponce Inlet         AlA - 700' north of East Winds condominium

                                 10                    Ponce Inlet         AlA between Katherine Ave. and Oceanview

                                 11                    Ponce Inlet         AIA at the intersection of Inlet Harbor Rd.

                                 12                  New Smyrna Beach      AlA between Lincoln Ave. and Florida St.

                                 13                  New Smyrna Beach      AIA between 4th Ave. and 5th Ave.

                                 14                  New Smyrna Beach      US I at the intersection of Lytle Ave.

                                                                         11

                                                                                                                                    FIGURE I

                                                                                                                 FRESHWATER ROADWAY INUNDATION
                                                                                                                                        ANALYSIS

                                                                                                          14

                                                  4r

                                                                                                                    to

                                                                                                      Cj)

                                                                                                                                                    3  4

                                                                                                                                                tOCOA KACM
                                                                                                                            00""

                                                                                                                                           PUN DAY

                                                                          TABLE 3

                                                                HURRICANES SIMULATED BY SPLASH II
                                               (Special Program to List the Amplitudes of Surges from Hurricanes)

                                      Landfall/Exiting'Pt.                              Pressure         Radius of     Forward     Direction
                                               or       k        Area Receiving            Drop         Max. Winds      Spepd         of
               Type*  Number Cat.      Closest Approach         Max. Surge/Winds       (Millibars)     (Statute Mi.)   (in mph)     Storm"

                 L    RS 80     1     Daytona Beach             Ormond-by-the-Sea           30              20            12         250
                 L    RS 60     1     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               30              20            12         246
                 L    RS 40     1     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            30              20            12         241
                 L    RS 20     1     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Mosquito Lagoon             30              20            12         237
                 L    LS 00     1     Melbourne                 Cape Canaveral              30              20            12         234
                 L    LS 20     1     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   30              20            12         230
                 L    LS 40     1     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             30              20            12         225

                 L    RS 80     2     Daytona Beach             Ormond-by-the-Sea           40              20            12         250
                 L    RS 60     2     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               40              20            12         246
                 L    RS 40     2     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            40              20            12         241
                 L    RS 20     2     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Mosquito Lagoon             40              20            12         237
                 L    LS 00     2     Melbourne                 Cape Canaveral              40              20            12         234
                 L    LS 20     2     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   40              20            12         230
                 L    LS 40     2     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             40              20            12         225
                 L    RS 80     3     Daytona Beach             Ormond-by-the-Sea           60              20            12         250
                 L    RS 60     3     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               60              20            12         246
                 L    RS 40     3     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            60              20            12         241
                 L    RS 20     3     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Mosquito Lagoon             60              20            12         237
                 L    LS 00     3     Melbourne                 Cape Canaveral              60              20            12         234
                 L    LS 20     3     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   60              20            12         230
                 L    LS 40     3     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             60              20            12         225

                 L    RS 80     4     Daytona Beach             Ormond-by-the-Sea           80              20            12         250
                 L    RS 60     4     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               80              20            12         246
                 L    RS 40     4     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            80              20            12         241
                 L    RS 20     4     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Mosquito Lagoon             80              20            12         237
                 L    LS 00     4     Melbourne                 Cape Canaveral              80              20            12         234
                 L    LS 20     4     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   80              20            12         230
                 L    LS 40     4     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             80              20            12         225

                 L    RS 80     5     Daytona Beach             Ormond Beach               100              12            12         250
                 L    RS 60     5     Mosquito Lagoon           Ponce Inlet                100              12            12         246
                 L    RS 40     5     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   Mosquito Lagoon            100              12            12         241
                 L    RS 20     5     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Canaveral Natl.Seashore    100              12            12         237
                 L    LS 00     5     Melbourne                 Cocoa Beach                100              12            12         234
                 L    LS 20     5     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                  100              12            12         230
                 L    LS 40     5     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet            100              12            12         225

                 E    RS 80     1     Daytona Beach             Flagler Beach               30              20            12          52
                 E    RS 60     1     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               30              20            12          52
                 E    RS 40     1     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            30              20            12          52
                 E    RS 20     1     Cape Canaveral            Mosquito Lagoon             30              20            12          52
                 E    LS 00     1     Melbourne                 Cocoa Beach                 30              20            12          52
                 E    LS 20     1     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   30              20            12          52
                 E    LS 40     1     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             30              20            12          52

                 E    RS 80     2     Daytona Beach             Flagler Beach               40              20            12          52
                 E    RS 60     2     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               40              20            12          52
                 E    RS 40     2     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            40              20            12          52
                 E    RS 20     2     Cape Canaveral            Mosquito Lagoon             40              20            12          52
                 E    LS 00     2     Melbourne                 Cocoa Beach                 40              20            12          52
                 E    LS 20     2     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   40              20            12          52
                 E    -LS 40    2     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             40              20            12          52

                 E    RS 80     3     Daytona Beach             Flagler Beach               60              20            12          52
                 E    RS 60     3     Mosquito Lagoon           Daytona Beach               60              20            12          52
                 E    RS 40     3     Canaveral Natl.Seashore   New Smyrna Beach            60              20            12          52
                 E    RS 20     3     Cne Canaveral             Mosquito Lagoon             60              20            12          52
                 E    LS 00     3     Me bourne                 Cocoa Beach                 60              20            12          52
                 E    LS 20     3     Sebastian Inlet           Melbourne                   60              20            12          52
                 E    LS 40     3     Vero Beach                Sebastian Inlet             60              20            12          52

                 *Key: L - Landfalling Hurricane; E - Exiting/Crossing Hurricane

               "Degree Clockwise from North

                                                                        13

                                                                           TABLE 3 (cont.)

                   P             1     20 Mi. West of KSC        Cocoa Beach                30               20            12      160  to   1
                   P             I     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Daytona Bch/Cocoa Bch      30               20            12      155  to   5
                   P             1     20 Mi. East of KSC    -   Canaveral Natl.Seashore    30               20            12      150  to 10
                   P             1     40 Mi. East of KSC        Canaveral Natl.Seashore    30               20            12      147  to 15
                   P             1     60 Mi. East of KSC        Canaveral Natl.Seashore    30               20            12      142  to 25

                   P             2     20 Mi. West of KSC        Cocoa Beach                40               20            12      160  to   I
                   P             2     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Daytona Bch/Cocoa Bch      40               20            12      155  to   5
                   P             2     20 Mi. East of KSC        Canaveral Natl.Seashore    40               20            12      150  to 10
                   P             2     40 Mi. East of KSC        Canaveral Natl.Seashore    40               20            12      147  to 15
                   P             2     60 Mi. East of KSC        Canaveral Ntl.Seashore     40               20            12      142  to 25

                   P             3     20 Mi. West of KSC        Cocoa Beach                60               20            12      160  to   I
                   P             3     Kennedy Space Ctr.        Daytona Bch/Cocoa Bch      60               20            12      155  to   5
                   P             3     20 Mi.  East of KSC       Canaveral Natl.Seashore    60               20            12      150  to 10
                   P             3     40 Mi.  East of KSC       Canaveral NatI.Seashore    60               20            12      147  to 15
                   P             3     60 Mi.  East of KSC       Canaveral Natl.Seashore    60               20            12      142  to 25

                   P             4     40 Mi.  E. of KSC         Canaveral Natl.Seashore    80               20            12      147  to 15
                   P             4     60 Mi.  E. of KSC         Canaveral Natl.Seashore    80               20            12      142  to 25
                   P             5     60 Mi.  E. of KSC         Canaveral Natl.Seashore    100              12            12      142  to 25

                   *Key: P    Paralleling Hurricane

                **Degree Clockwise from   North

                                                                                14

                                                             FIGURE

                                                     LANDFALLING HURRICANES

                                                                                             NZ

                                                                                              VS
                                                                                                vs
                                                  wo                                                  NZ

                                                                     of
                                                           ...0s

                                                                                  vc.

                                                                     coot 0
                                                                       c
                                                                  "0

                                                                  15

                                                                                                             FIGURE a

                                                                                           CROSSING/EXITING HURRICANES

                                                   MILO.

                                                                                                            ""Its

                                                                                        to

                                                                                     .sco
                                                                                                    101.

                                                                  NZ

                                                                                                     ."Des

                                                                   VS                                  I so     0,6@46
                                                                            IV fj                     LD It
                                                                       VS
                                                                           VS   bcZ

                                                                                                                                                   0

                                                                                                              16

                                                                                                                                        FIGURE 4

                                                                                                                     PARALLELING HURRICANES

                               VALS-1.                     -LOA
                                                                                                                      CL-      L

                                                                                                                                     fl.QLl
                                                                                      tevT

                                                                                                            o

                                                                                                     1.1co                                 oTc.0L.
                                                                                                                            'OLLL

                                                                                                                                                                  wAA.

                                                                                                                                                                      11 vc.

                                                                                                             j ... *01A     of, To
                                                                                                                                          *LA@dg

                                                                                                                               L16

                                                                                                                                                                      v"m

                                                                                                                                                      CoIL-t-

                                                                                                                                                        o.-Ol

                                                                                                                                                                                       0

                                                                                                                                                      j 0        0

                                                                                                                                      '17.

                     0     a surface envelope of expected highest surges for the entire
                           storm duration;

                     0     a space-time plot of surge heights along the coast; and

                     0     a space-time plot of coastal wind speeds.

                The  results of the SPLASH II model will be used to analyze various factors
                pertinent to determining evacuation times. First, the envelope of expected
                surges will be used to determine the extent of probable flooding along the
                coast for each of the simulated hurricanes. Second, the space-time plot of
                surge heights (which depicts how high the surge is expected to be at
                specific locations and when the surge will occur relative to hurricane eye
                landfall) will be used to determine potential flooding of             roadways.
                Third, the space-time plot of coastal wind speeds will indicate when
                specific locations can expect the onset of gale-force and hurricane-force
                winds and the duration of dangerously high winds.

                Concepts and Assumptions

                As with any evacuation planning effort that is concerned with the
                prevention of loss of life, this Study is based on identifying the
                potential effects resulting from the worst probable hurricane events that
                may be reasonably expected to impact the region's coast.      The hypothetical
                hurricanes selected and simulated through the SPLASH II model are those
                which, in addition to being meteorologically probable, are of such an
                intensity and an angle of approach as to maximize the hazards considered by
                this Study.     By analyzing the worst probable cases, hazards of any
                potential magnitude will be considered in the planning efforts at both the
                local and regional levels.

                The outputs resulting from the simulation of the worst probable storms
                provide a means of quantifying the effects of hurricane hazards.      The use
                of these predictive tools begins to address the two primary concerns of
                this Study, which are:     the extent of the areas threatened by a hurricane
                and requiring evacuation; and the time required for residents in a
                threatened area to safely evacuate before the life-threatening effects of
                the hurricane hazards arrive.

                Xn addition to the predictive tools of the SPLASH II model, two general
                assumptions must also be made to completely address these concerns.           As
                mentioned previously, SPLASH II does not offer any information on the
                amount of rainfall expected to accompany a hurricane.       In addition, the
                effects of the frictional drag on the velocity of winds as the hurricane
                moves inland cannot be determined from this model.             Therefore, two
                assumptions to be used in this Study are as follows:

                     0     all mobile home residents should evacuate from the direct
                           approach of a hurricane; and

                                                    18

                           0   the arrival of rainfall sufficient to flood evacuation
                               routes will generally parallel the arrival of sustained
                               gale force winds.

                     To illustrate the concepts and assumptions of this Study, Table 4 has been
                     provided which describes the effects of each hazard considered in this
                     Study. It then lists the predictive tool or assumption used to address the
                     effect, the action required to evacuate residents from the effect, and the
                     contribution of each effect to evacuation time.      This table is a general
                     illustration of the hazard analysis concept used      in the development of
                     regional evacuation studies throughout the State.      It has been modified to
                     reflect the use of the SPLASH II computer model.

                     Input Parameters

                     As previously discussed, a number of meteorological parameters were
                     selected by the National Hurricane Center staff for inputs into the SPLASH
                     II model.    These parameters were directly accessible and amenable to
                     measurement and represent the major variables associated with a hurricane
                     for predicting the storm surge amplitude.     As can be noted in Table 3, the
                     input parameters used to compose each hypothetical hurricane included:

                           0   barometric pressure drop (millibars)
                           0   storm size (radius of maximum winds)
                           0   forward speed (miles per hour)
                           0   direction and landfall/approach angle of track
                           0   Saffir/Simpson Scale category

                     The principal parameter concentrated on by the National Hurricane Center in
                     programming the SPLASH II model is the pressure drop of the storm.           The
                     peak surge value varies almost linearly with the pressure drop, so that the
                     greater the pressure drop, the higher the expected surge value.       As shown
                     on Table 3 for each category of storm modeled, the pressure drop
                     increased--ranging from 20 millibars for a Category 1 storm to 100
                     millibars for a Category 5 storm. Based solely on this consideration, with
                     other parameters held constant, an increase in the intensity of the storm
                     would be expected to generate a corresponding increase in the storm surge
                     amplitude.

                     An additional indicator of storm surge amplitude is the radius of maximum
                     winds.   This is a secondary consideration to pressure drop in predicting
                     storm surge values, butis, nonetheless, an important factor. From Table 3
                     it can be noted that most of the hypothetical hurricanes simulated had a
                     storm size of 20 statute miles representing what the National Hurricane
                     Center forecasters considered to be probable for this area.      However, the
                     Saffir/Simpson Category 5 hurricanes were all simulated through SPLASH II
                     as having a radius of maximum winds of 12 statute miles.       The radius was
                     reduced for this category of hurricane because, in general, Category 5

                                                          19

                       HAZARD                    RE
                                                  ,@SPONSJ
                                               %Q 0 1 It(, @ @ACTERISTIC                          EFFECT                           TOOL OR ASSUMPTION                      EVACUATION ACTION                CONTRIBUTION TO EVACUATION TIME

                                                                                   Inundation of land and                  SPLASH 11 and Inland Flooding          Evacuate all residents within           Clearance time
                                          Extent of evacuation                     devastation of structures               model:  surface envelope of            predicted path of stom surge
                                                                                                                           highest surges above MSL
                          STORM

                          SURGE
                                          Timing of evacuation order               Inundation of evacuation routes         SPLASH Il and Inland Flooding          Evacuate vulnerable residents           Pre-landfall hazards time
                                                                                   before eye landfall                     model : time histories of surges       before predicted inundation of
                                                                                                                                                                  evacuation routes

                                          Extent of evacuation                     Devastation of structures               Assumption: All mobile home            Evacuate all mobile home residents Clearance time
                                                                                                                           residents should evacuate from
                                                                                                                           hurricane
                          HIGH                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 M
                          WINDS
     C>                                   Timing of evacuation order               Arrival of sustained gale force         SPLASH II: Time histories of           Evacuate vulnerable residents           Pre-landfall hazards time
                                                                                   winds before eye landfall               comouted wind speeds                   before predicted arrival of sus-
                                                                                                                                                                  tained gale force winds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      C-)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      M

                                          Extent of evacuation                     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

                        RAINFALL                                                                                           kssumption: Torrential rainfall        Evacuate vulnerable residents           Pre-landfall hazards time
                                                                                                                            ficient to inundate evacuation        before predicted arrival of sus-
                                          Timing of evacuation order               Inundation of evacuation routes         Uutes  ilI generally parallel          tained gale force winds
                                                                                   before eye landfall                     he arrival of sustained gale
                                                                                                                           rrce winds

                     storms are smaller in     size with a more compact storm center.      As can be
                     seen in the discussion of the results of the SPLASH II analysis later in
                     this chapter, this reduced storm size was a mitigating factor in the peak
                     surge amplitude of a Category 5 storm.

                     Forward speed of the storm was also considered in developing the parameters
                     for the model.    There exists a critical motion relative to the coast that
                     generates the highest possible surge under any given set of conditions.
                     The critical speed is generally greater than 30 mph.       It will be less only
                     with exceptionally small storms or in exceptionally shallow or wide basins.
                     However, storms reaching land rarely attain a critical speed; thus, in
                     order to simplify the model, the National Hurricane Center staff selected a
                     constant speed for all of the hypothetical hurricanes.       As shown on Table
                     3, a forward speed of 12 mph was used in each case, which represented a
                     mean speed for all the hypothetical storms modeled.

                     Another selection of input parameters focused on the angle of the track on
                     which the hurricane is approaching the coast.       Table 3 and Figure 2 show
                     that the hypothetical landfalling hurricanes were simulated as approaching
                     at an 800 angle clockwise from the north.       While storm surge values would
                     be maximized by a perpendicular (900) landfall angle, this track was
                     determined not to be meteorologically possible for this region.

                     The final parameter used in producing the hypothetical hurricanes was the
                     intensity of the storm according to the Saffir/Simpson Scale.        This scale
                     defines storms according to the sustained speed of hurricane force winds
                     and also describes the expected surge heights associated with each category
                     of storm.    Also from Table 3, a description of the categories of storms
                     modeled for each storm movement is available.      Briefly, landfalling storms
                     were modeled for category 1-5 storms, exiting storms for category 1-3, and
                     paralleling storms for different categories depending on the location of
                     the storm in relation to the coast.

                     The height of the storm surge is determined not only by the parameters of
                     the hurricane itself, but also by the local topographic conditions of the
                     area.   As mentioned previously, factors involved in that determination
                     include offshore bathymetry, coastline configurations, and astronomical
                     tides.

                     The offshore bathymetry, or ocean bottom topography, can have either a
                     positive or negative effect on the expected storm surge height.              Wide
                     continental shelves with shallow depths of water, as found on the Gulf
                     coast of Florida, will produce higher storm surges than those found on the
                     east coast of Florida with its narrower shelf widths and deeper water.
                     -Storm surge heights for different locations will vary somewhat with the
                     surge values described by the Saffir/Simpson Scale due to these unique
                     offshore   characteristics.     The surge height ranges listed in             the
                     Saffir/Simpson Scale are those expected for a "standard basin" which is
                     considered a hypothetical mean for all basins on the Atlantic and Gulf
                     coasts.

                                                          21

                 Coastline configurations also have a determining effect on expected surge
                 heights, but the effects are less well known. The impact of the two inlets
                 along the East Central Florida coast cannot be determined by the SPLASH II
                 model, although, due to their small size, it is not expected to be
                 substantial.   The land configuration of Cape Canaveral does produce a
                 noticeable effect on the storm surge height, which is discussed later in
                 this chapter.

                 Lastly, astronomical tides can increase an already dangerous situation when
                 both the peak meteorological and astronomical tides occur at nearly the
                 same time.    This situation generates larger total surges.        As it is
                 impossible to tell if these tides will occur simultaneously, for planning
                 purposes, it is assumed that they will. These tides were superimposed onto
                 expected surge heights in assisting to determine vulnerable areas.

                 HAZARD ANALYSIS OUTPUT

                 As noted earlier, the major outputs produced by SPLASH II include storm
                 surge heights and time histories for surge and winds.     For the purposes of
                 this Study, the time histories have been grouped under pre-landfall hazard
                 times which offer quantitative means of determining the amounts of time
                 needed for evacuating threatened areas prior to hurricane eye landfall.

                 The results of the SPLASH 11 model are provided for each movement modeled:
                 landfalling, exiting, and paralleling. The surge heights and pre-landfall
                 hazard times associated with each of these movements are presented in the
                 discussion which follows.

                 Landfalling Kurricknes

                 Storm Surge

                 Storms reaching land, traveling near normal to the coast, generate surge
                 profiles that grow with time.     The position of the highest surge on the
                 profile remains stationary, eventually reaching its peak surge amplitude at
                 approximately the time of landfall.    The surge, however, builds and abates
                 with time, with locations along the coast experiencing their highest surge
                 at different periods.   In addition, there are negative surges to the south
                 of where the storm makes landfall.     These characteristics are illustrated
                 in Figure 5 which presents a space-time plot of coastal surges for a
                 Category 4 hurricane landfalling 60 miles north of Melbourne (RS 60 on
                 Figure 2).   The space-time plot provides a snapshot of tide heights along
                 the coast at half-hour intervals before and after landfall.

                 To initially assess the inland flooding potential for a hurricane, it is
                 necessary to quantify @he peak surge value for each location along the
                 coast, irrespective of time.    The curve made up of the highest surges at
                 each point over the entire duration of the storm is provided by the SPLASH

                                                       22

                                                                                                                                                                                             FIGURE 5

                                                                                                                                                                          SPACE-TIME PLOT OF COASTAL SURGES

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             th            17           im
                                                        :q
                                                                                                              1.7           2.0                                                                                                                                                                                'S
                                                                                                                                       tT 4           2                             2
                                                                                 P                                  1.0           A    ,              j.?                                                                                                                            7--
                                                                                                                            2.1        P.S.           3.1         S.9          4                                                          0.7 . ;.A
                       St. @uqustifle                     q               10                                                                                                                                                 6. 3         5.7 . U.1            1.9-                  .9                                     1.2
                                                                                                              1.8
                       Inlet                                              I      .                                                                    I A              4.7                                      b'q          h-6                         1-2 - 1-3                   -                         1  .2                                            ;4
                                                                                                                            .     >.$I"                                                                                                                                                                                     1  .0              a             5
                                                                                                                                                                                    S.9              7. 1       7.0                                      3.11      . I h             ,                                                                   .0           .4
                                                                                                                            2.2        2.7            3                        5.b           7.0                8.2          5. 7                        3     2.6           1.2           1    t      I       I            1 0      .8               S
                                                             ---I     ri.        I.;      S.. I      b
                                                                                                                                  31 ."               1.1                                            4.2        Q.1
                                                                                                                            n                                                       b.h         .                            . Q.;)                                                                            I            n
                                                                                          S          5 1 .71        13 2 . 62..21,                                                                                           0_@.3        972            o     3To_          1711                       tT                                     5
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                II model as a storm surge envelope.     The example of this envelope for the
                hurricane displayed in Figure 5 is provided in Figure 6.

                In examining the storm surge envelope, several points are worth noting that
                are characteristic of all the landfalling hurricanes modeled.       First, the
                highest surge value always occurs to the north of the point of landfall,
                due to the counter-clockwise motion of the storm.        In the example used
                above, the storm L4RS60 landfalls just south of New Smyrna Beach but
                produces the highest -surge at Daytona Beach.     Second, storm surge values
                increase rapidly to the south of eye landfall and fall off gradually to the
                north once again.     This is the result of the counter-clockwise motion of
                the storm aided by the "damming effect" of the high winds within the
                hurricane.   Third, as evident from the surge envelope, a hurricane will
                produce various peak surge values along the coastline.       While a 15.1-foot
                surge can be expected at Daytona Beach for the particular storm mentioned
                above, the peak surge experienced at Cape Canaveral is less than 1 foot.

                The different surge values produced by a storm have a particular relevance
                to this Study.     As a storm approaches land, it is necessary for disaster
                preparedness officials to be able to assess the impacts from a hurricane
                that may pass close by, but not directly over, their county. In the case
                of Brevard and Volusia counties, with their long coastlines, it is also
                necessary to determine what the effect of a storm striking one part of the
                county will have on the other part.      Table 5 provides information on the
                expected surge levels that may be expected along the coastline for each of
                the landfalling hurricanes modeled.       This table illustrates which storm
                tracks will create tidal flooding problems for particular sections along
                the region's coastal areas.

                As can be noted from Table 5, landfalling hurricanes simulated as
                approaching at an 800 angle (worst possible) resulted in a peak surge
                height of 15.5 feet at the worst single point for the worst probable storm
                event, a Category 5 storm. The more likely flooding, however, results from
                a Category I or 2 storm, producing a peak surge amplitude of less than 8
                feet, A storm surge profile graphically illustrating the peak surge values
                predicted for each category of storm is provided in Figure 7.

                When   compared to typical tidal flooding heights expected             by    the
                Saffir/Simpson Scale, values for storm surges in the region are similar,
                although they usually fall within the lower end of the Scale.          This is
                particularly true for Brevard County.      The lower values are explained by
                the relatively low shoaling factor along the East Central Florida coast,
                which ranges from 0.67 in south Brevard County to 0.85 in north Volusia
                County.   The shoaling factor i-s a measurement of the slope of the offshore
                bathymetry and is a function of the width of the continental shelf.         This
                shelf is relatively narrow along the region's coast when compared to the
                rest of the coastline along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

                The shoaling factor also explains the noticeabl.e rise in storm surge values
                the further north a hurricane makes landfall.      The continental shelf width

                                                      24

                                                                                                              FIGURE 6
                                                                             STORM SURGE ENVELOPE FOR HURRICANE DISPLAYED IN FIGURE 5
                                 Nearest approach of storm to basin center is                                 -----------       ill miles, on Thur             "    9/2/82, at 12 hours
                                 The basin's center is located                      --------------------------                     0 miles to the left of Vero Beach
                                 Initial, closest approach & final pressure drops are                                       ---           60.0          60.0          41 mbs, respectively
                                 Initial, closest approach & final storm sizes are                                    ------              20.0          20.0          25 statute miles, respectively
                                                  Storm
                                                  Storm Surge Heights (feet)
                                   Is

                                                                                                                                                                         S:q   I bQ.                    124OLSt
                                                                                                                                                                         b:3          ST AUG TNL,       120OLST
                                                                                                                                                                         7:q                            12noLST
                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 20OLST
                                                                                                                                                                         10:3                           120OLST
                                                                                                                                                                                      FLGCR BCH
                                                                                                                                                                         1?'a   120.                    12nOLST
                                                                                                                                                                                                        120OL67
                                                                                                                                                                         145          DT04A BCH         12nOLST
                                                                                                                                                                       5K. fl
                                                                                                                                                                           :?-'       N 5VYRNA        3 120OLST
                                                                                                                                                                              3                         1 10OLST
                                                                                                                                                                         7:9     go.                    1000LST
             Ln                                                                                                                                                          5:0                            100OLST
                                                                                                                                                                         a:2                            090OLST
                                                                                                                                                                         0:7          CP CANAVRL        ISOOLST
                                                                                                                                                                         0:6                            1500LST
                                                                                                                                                                           :3    40.                    160OLST
                                                                                                                                                                           :1         OEL&OURNE         A000LS1
                                                                                                                                                                         0:3                            OOOOLSt
                                                                                                                                                                         0:S                            OwLST
                                                                                                                                                                         o:3                            0000LST
                                                                                                                                                                           -3
                                                                                                                                                                                  o   ;ERG BEACH        OOOOLST
                                                                                                                                                                                                        004OLsT
                                                                                                                                                                                    -F-T-PRe-+NL--      OODOLST
                                                                                                                                                                         0,2
                                                                                                                                                                         0 :2                           200OLST
                                                                                                                                                                         0:3                            160OL3T
                                                                                                                                                                         0 : 3-40.    1408E SGUNO       160OLSt
                                                                                                                                                                         0 :5                           IbOOLST
                                                                                                                                                                         8:3                            IbOOLST

                                                                                                       TABLE 5

                                                                                       STORM SURGE HEIGHTS AT SELECTED POINTS

                                                                                             Normal Landfalling Hurricanes

                                                                   Sebastian                           Cape        Mosquito       New Smyrna                             Ormond
                                                HURRICANE             Inlet        Melbourne        Canaveral        Logoon           Beach        Daytona Beach         By The Sea

                                                LIRS80                  .2               .1              .5             1.3           2.7                4.8                5.5
                                                LlRS60                  .2               .2            1.0              2.8           5.1                5.4                5.0
                                                LlRS40                  .3               .3            2.2              5.1           5.3                4.8                4.1
                                                LIRS20                  .5               .6            4.8              5.0           3.7                2.5                1.8
                                                LILSOO                 1.1             2.6             4.5              2.7           1.9                1.4                1.2
                                                LlLS20                 3.6             4.7             3.2              1.6           1.2                  .9                .9
                                                LlLS40                 4.5             3.3             1.5              1.0             .8                 .7                .7

                                                L2RS80                  .2               .2              .6             1.7           3.5                6.5                7.4
                                                L2RS60                  .2               .2            1.2              3.7           6.9                7.3                6.8
                                                L2RS40                  .4               .3            3.0              6.9           7.1                5.5                4.6
                                                L2RS20                  .6               .8            4.0              6.7           4.9                3.4                2.5
                                                L2LSOO                 1.4             3.5             6.1              3.6           2.6                1.9                1.7
                                                L2LS20                 4.9             6.3             4.2              2.1           1.6                1.3                1.1
                                                L2LS4O                 6.1             4.4             2.6              1.4           1.1                  .9                .9

                                                L3RS8O                  .2               .2              .8             2.5           5.3                9.9               11.3
                                                L3RS60                  .3               .3            1.7              5.6           10.6              11.2               10.4
                                                L3RS4O                  .4               .4            4.4              10.5          10.9               8.4                5.9
                                                L3RS2O                  .9             1.0             9.9              10.4          6.3                4.4                3.8
                                                L3LSOO                 2.1             5.3             9.4              6.9           4.6                3.3                2.5
                                                L3LS2O                 7.5             9.6             5.1              3.3           2.5                1.9                1.7
                                                LKS40                  9.3             6.8             3.1              2.1           1.7                1.4                1.3

                                                L4RS80                  .3               .2              .9             3.2           7.0               13.3               15.2
                                                L4RS60                  .3               .3            2.2              7*'4          14.2              15.1               14.0
                                                L4RS4O                  .5               .5            5.9              14.2          14.7              11.4                8.0
                                                L4RS2O                 1.0             1.4             8.2              13.9          10.2               7.0                5.0
                                                L4LSOO                 2.7             7.2             12.6             9.3           6.2                4.5                3.4
                                                L4LS20                10.1             13.0            8.7              5.3           3.8                2.9                2.3
                                                L4LS40                12.5             9.1             5.3.             3.4           2.6                2.1                1.8

                                                L5RS80                  .3               .5              .5             1.3           4.9               15.5               15.5
                                                L5RS60                  .3               .3              .5             3.1           15.0              14.5               10.4
                                                L5RS40                  .4               .5            1.7              15.1          13.1               7.9                4.9
                                                L5RS20                  .7             1.0             14.4             11.8          6.7                4.3                2.9
                                                L5LSOO                 1.5             8.5             13.1             5.7           3.5                2.4                1.7
                                                L5LS20                11.6             13.6            8.1              2.9           1.9                1.4                1.2
                                                L5LS4O                13.0             7.8             4.3              1.7           1.3                1.1                 .9

                                                     FIGURE 7

                                      SURGE PROFILE   LANDFALLING HURRICANES                         E-C
                                                                                                     0 U
                                                                                                     S.- to
                                                                                                     4-W
                                                         Ln           C"      ClQ                      en
                                                                                                       0

                                                                                                       Cl
                            Flagler                                                                    Cm
                              Beach-

                            Ormond-
                         BY-The-Sea'-

                      Daytona Beach-

                         New Smyrna-
                              Beach[-

                                                                                                     co

                          Mosquito
                            Lagoon-

                           Kennedy
                      Space Center-

                              Cape
                         Canaveral-

                        Melbourne-

                        Sebastian
                            Inlet-

                       Vero Beach-

                                  Ln                       Ln                        'n
                                                    (Feet ACove M.S.L.)

                                                         27

                 increases toward the north and is responsible for increasing the storm
                 surge height almost 3 feet for a Category 4 hurricane.          The effect of the
                 shoaling factor is also evident in the values produced by                    storms
                 landfalling near Cape Canaveral. The extension of the Cape into open water
                 decreases the availability of shelf space, resulting in deeper water and
                 less of a slope.     This tends to decrease the surge amplitude in the Cape's
                 vicinity.

                 As discussed earlier, a small storm size (12 statute miles radius of
                 maximum winds instead of 20 statute miles) was selected for the simulation
                 of all Category 5 hurricanes.      As shown on Figure 7, the step increase in
                 surge heights from a Category 1, 2, 3, and 4 storm did not take place with
                 a Category 5 storm.     This resulted in a Category 5 storm producing a surge
                 less than one foot higher than a comparable Category 4 storm.                   The
                 divergence from the expected step increase is due to the existence of a
                 critical storm size, for a given storm speed, that generates an upper
                 maximum surge.      The size is generally thought to be a radius of maximum
                 winds of 30 miles. With all other storm parameters remaining constant, any
                 storm size greater or less than this results in a decreased surge value.
                 This explains why--when the storm speed is held constant--the surge values
                 for a Category 4 storm with a radius of maximum winds of 20 statute miles
                 were similar to the surge heights of a Category 5 storm having a radius of
                 maximum winds of 12 statute miles.

                 Pre-Landfall Hazard Times

                 In general, the build-up of the storm surge heights along the East Central
                 Florida    coastline occurs gradually,        followed by a rapid         increase
                 immediately preceding eye landfall.          Peak surge heights are reached
                 approximately    at the time of landfall and then decrease                rapidly.
                 Categories 1-5 hurricanes analyzed by the SPLASH II model showed the
                 arrival of significant surge heights to occur as follows:

                                                                Hours before Landfall

                              Category 1                             1-2 hours
                              Category 2                             2-3 hours
                              Category 3                             3-4 hours
                              Category 4                             4-5 hours
                              Category 5                             3-4 hours

                 These times were based on the rise of the ocean surface to 4 feet above
                 MSL.    It is assumed, due to the elevation of the coastline, that no
                 significant flooding would occur prior to the increase in these heights.

                 The other major output for the SPLASH 11 model consists of time histories
                 of wind speed for selected points along the coast.           As with the time
                 histories of surges, the output affords a quantitative means of assessing
                 pre-eye landfall hazard times.         Figure 8 graphically illustrates the

                                                         28

                                                                                                   'w ful

                                                            c a j,
                                                                                                                             FIGURE 8

                                                                                                                          SPACE-TIME PLOT
                                              'o     c.
                                                                                                                     OF   COASTAL WIND SPEED
                                                                                         ft  c a It-
                              -4; v-11,          "V
                                                      Ar LA     ko a  @x
                                                      4 ul A     u,
                                                                oir
                                                                                                                     Category 4          Normal
                                                                                                                                         Landfalling
                                                                4 ke W,                       lo-

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                              ci:
                                                                                                 T
                                                                                               1: L; 1;
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                                                            ,, 'd,  in a a ;v n a        W  wi ON                fu fu tu fu rl@
                              IV    a                                                    :dO
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                                                                                              @rl ;@ -,          &     'r 11
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                                                                                            4p             w %r

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                                                 1.2

                                                                                  29

                 relation of hurricane force winds and gale force winds to the hurricane
                 eye.

                 The analysis of the SPLASH II histories for landfalling hurricanes revealed
                 that sustained gale force winds could be expected to arrive at certain
                 points along the coast up to 11.5 hours before eye landfall.     This is well
                 in advance of expected surge heights.    For all storms modeled, the average
                 arrival time for gale force winds was 8 to 10 hours prior to landfall.       A
                 Category 4 hurricane, because of its size, produces the earliest arrival of
                 these winds.     A full description of the pre-eye landfall wind times for
                 each category of storm is provided in Table 6.

                 Exiting Hurricanes

                 Storm Surge

                 Like landfalling hurricanes, exiting storms generate surge profiles that
                 grow with time.      However, as the storm is initially passing over land,
                 there is only limited time to form the storm surge in the vicinity of the
                 coast and, consequently, there is a lower potential to develop significant
                 surges at the coast.

                 The storm profile developed for exiting storms is provided in Figure 9. In
                 referring to the profile it can be noted that the peak surges are
                 substantially less than those produced by a landfalling storm. The maximum
                 surge height generated by a Category 3 exiting storm is only 5.8 feet.
                 Storms for categories 4 and 5 were not modeled, based on the assumption
                 that storms of this magnitude striking the west coast of Florida would be
                 of reduced intensity when reaching the east coast.

                 Pre-Landfall Hazard Time

                 With the smaller storm surge values associated with exiting storms, it is
                 expected that the arrival of significant storm surge heights would occur
                 almost simultaneously with the arrival of the storm center.         The time
                 histories of surge heights provided by the SPLASH II model seem to bear
                 this out. These times are shown as follows:

                                                  Hours Before Arrival of Storm Center

                              Category 1                           0
                              Category 2                           0
                              Category 3                          1-1.5

                 The analysis of the      time histories of wind speeds for exiting storms
                 revealed that the arrival of sustained gale force winds for exiting storms
                 is similar to that of landfalling hurricanes.     One importance difference,
                 howeverD is that a Category 3 exiting storm produces gale force winds at
                 the same time as a Category 4 landfalling storm--approximately 11.5 hours

                                                       30

                                                                                TAB   LE 6

                                                                  HURRICANE HAZARDS FOR MODELED STORMS
                                                                                                                                                      Page I of 2

                         DESCRIPTION                   MAXIMUM                              GALE FOR;E WINDS                        HURRICANE FORqE WINDS
                         OF HURRICANE               SURGE HEIGHT                      Extent         lArrival Time*             Extent           Arrival  Time*

                         NORClRS080                        5.4                        120   miles               6               40  miles             2.5
                         NORCIRS060                        5.4                        140   miles               6               40  miles             2.5
                         NORCIRS040                        5.3                        120   miles               6               60  mil:s             2.5
                         NORCIRS020                        5.0                        120   mil:s               6.5             40  mil s             3
                         NORClLSOOO                        4.5                        120   mil s               7               40  miles             2.5
                         NORClLS020                        4.7                        120   miles               6               40  miles             2.5
                         NORCILS040                        4.5                        140   miles               6.5             40 miles              2.6
                         NORClLS060                        4.2                        140   mil:s               6                   ---               ---
                         NORClLS080                        3.6                        160   mil s               6                   ---               ---

                         NORMS080                          7.3                        120   miles               7.5             60  miles             3
                         NORC2RS060                        7.3                        140   miles               7.5             60  miles             3
                         NORC2RS040                        7.1                        160   miles               7.5             60  mil:s             3.5
                         NORC2RS020                        6,7                        160   miles               8 -             60  mil s             3.5
                         NORC2LSOOO                        6.0                        160   miles               8               60  miles             3.5
                         NORMS020                          6.3                        160   miles               7.5             60  miles             3.5
                         NORC2LS040                        6.1                        160   miles               7.5             80  miles             3.5
                         NORMS060                          5.6                        160   miles               7.5                 ---
                         NORC2LS080                        4.8                        160   miles               7.5                 ---               ---
                         N0RC2LSl0O                        3.6                        160   miles               7.5                 ---               ---

                         NORC3RS080                        11.2                       160   miles               9.5             100 miles             4.5
                         NORC3RS060                        11.2                       160   miles               9.5             100 miles             4.5
                         NORC3RS040                        10.9                       180   miles               9.5             140 miles             4.5
                         NORC3RS020                        10.4                       200 miles                 10              100 miles             5
                         NORC3LSOOO                        9.2                        200   miles               10              100 miles
                         NORC3LS020                        9.6                        200   nd I es             9.5             100 miles             4.5
                         NORC3LS040                        9.4                        200   miles               9.5             100 miles             '4.5
                         NOROLS060                         8.6                        220   miles               9.5             100 miles             4.5
                         NORC3LS080                        7.4                        240   miles               9.5
                         NOROLS100                         5.5                        220   miles               9.5                 ---

                         NORMS080                          15.1                       180   miles               11              120 miles             5.5
                         NORMS060                          15.0                       180   miles               11              120 miles             5.5
                         NORC4RS040                        14.7                       200   m                   11              140 miles             5.5
                         NORC4RS020                        13.9                       220   miles               11.5            120 miles             6
                         NORC4LSOOO                        12.4                       240   miles               11.5            120 miles             6
                         NORC4LS020                        12.9                       240   miles               11              120 miles             5.5
                         NORC4LS040                        12.6                       240   miles               11              120 mil:s             5.5
                         NORC4LS060                        11.5                       260   miles               11              120 mil s             5.5
                         NORC4LS080                        10.0                       240   miles               11              120 miles             5.5
                         NORC4LS100                        7.2                        240   miles               11.5                ---               ---
                         NORC5RS080                        14.3                       140   miles               8.5             100 mil:s             4
                         NORC5RS060                        15.0                       160   miles               8.5             80  mil s             4
                         NORC5RS040                        15.1                       180   miles               8.5             100 miles             4
                         NORC5RS020                        13.8                       180   miles               8.5             80  miles             4.5
                         NORC5LS00O                        13.1                       180   miles               9               100 Mil s             4.5
                         NORCKS020                         13.6                       180   miles               8.5             80  mil:s             4
                         NORMS040                          13.0                       180   miles               8.5             80  miles             4.5
                         NORCKS060                         12.4                       200   miles               8               100 miles             4
                         NORCKS080                         9.1                        200   miles               8                                     ---
                         NORC5LSIOO                        6.9                        200   miles               8.5

                         CRSClRS080                        2.7                        140   miles               6.5             40  miles             2.5
                         CRSCIRS060                        2.6                        140   mil:ss              7               40  miles             2.5
                         CRSCIRS040                        2.6                        140   mil                 7.5             40  miles             3.5
                         CRSClRS020                        2.4                        140   miles               7.S             40  miles             3.6
                         CRSClLSOOO                        2.4                        140   miles               6.5             60  miles             2.5
                         CRSCILS020                        2.4                        140   mil:s               6.5             40  miles             2.5
                         CRSC)LS040                        2.2                        160   mil s               7                   ---
                         CRSClLS060                        2.1                        160   miles               7.5                 ---

                         *number of hours before eye landfall                         31

                                                                         TABLE 6        (cont.)

                                                                                                                                        Page 2 of 2
                         DESCRIPTION              MAXIMUM                         1ALE  FORCE WINDS                 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
                         OF HURRICANE           SURGE HEIGHT                  Extent       jArrival Time*         Extent        Arrival Time

                         CRSC2RS080                   3.7                     160 miles            7.5            60  miles         3.5
                         CRSC2RS06O                   3.7                     180 miles            8.5            60  miles         3.5
                         CRSC2RS04O                   3.6                     160 miles            9              80  mil s         4.5
                         CRSC2RSO2O                   3.4                     160 miles            8.5            80  mil:s         4.5
                         CRSC2LSOOO                   3.3                     160 miles            8              60  miles         3.5
                         CRSC2LSO2O                   3.3                     160 miles            8              60  mil:s         3.5
                         CRSC2LS04O                   3.1                     200 miles            8.5            60  mil s         3.5
                         CRSC2LSO6O                   2.9                     200 miles            9.5              ...             ---
                         CRSC2LSO8O                   2.7                     200 miles          11                 ---

                         CRSC3RS08O                   6.0                     180 miles          10               100 miles         4.5
                         CRSC3RS06O                   5.9                     200 miles          10.5             100 miles         5
                         CRSC3RSO4O                   5.8                     220 miles          11               100 miles         5.5
                         CRSC3RSO2O                   5.4                     240 miles          10.5             100 miles         5.5
                         CRSC3LSOOO                   5.3                     220 miles          10               100 miles         5
                         CRSC3LSO2O                   5.2                     240 miles          10               100 miles         5
                         CRSC3LSO4O                   4.9                     240 miles          11.5             100 miles         5
                         CRSC3LSO6O                   4.6                     240 miles          13               100 miles         5
                         CRSC3LSO8O                   4.2                     220 mi I es        14                 ---             ---
                         CRSC3LS1OO                   3.1                     200 miles          14                 ---

                                                             Max. Wind
                                                                Speed

                         PARCIRS060               1.2       /   49 mph         60 miles            1
                         PARCIRS040               2.0       /   65 mph        100 miles            3                ---             ---
                         PARClRS020               3.1       /   79 mph        120 miles            4.5              ---             ...
                         PARClLSOOO               3.0       /   85 mph        140 miles            5.5            20 miles          2
                         PARCILS020               2.4       /   85 mph        140 miles            5.5                              2

                         PARC2RSO60               1.5       /   59 mph        100 miles            2.5              ---
                         PARC2RSO40               2.8       /   77 mph        120 miles            4                ---             ---
                         PARC2RSO20               4.2       /   92 mph        140 miles            5.5            40 miles          1
                         PARC2LSOOO               4.3       /   98 mph        160 miles            6              80 miles          2
                         PARC2LSO2O               3.3       /   98 mph        160 miles            7              80 miles          3

                         PARC3RSO6O               2.5       /   74 mph        160 miles            5
                         PARC3RSO40               4.4       /   97 mph        120 miles            6              60  miles         1*5
                         PARC3RS020               6.7       /   108 mph       200 miles            7.5            80  miles         2.5
                         PARC3LSOOO               6.9       /   120 mph       220 miles            8              100 miles         3.5
                         PARC3LSO2O               5.1       /   120 mph       220 miles            9              100 miles         4
                         PARC4RSO40               6.0       /   115 mph       200 miles            8              80  miles         2
                         PARC4RSO60               3.4       /   87 mph        200 miles            7              40  miles     with storm
                                                                                           I                                    penter arrival
                         PARC5RS060               1.9       /   73 mph        120 miles            4                ---            ---

                         *number of hours before eye landfall                   32

                                                        FIGURE 9
                                      SURGE PROFILE   CROSSING/EXITING HURRICANES                     0   U
                                                                                                      S_
                                                                                                      4-
                                                                                                         ca

                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                         &_
                                                                                    1-a   1-j pz
                                                                                    mi     ai

                                                                                                       CD
                           FlagTer-
                              Beach

                           Ormond-
                         BY-The-Sea

                                                                                                      Q
                                                                                                      CD
                    Daytona Beach

                       New Smyrna
                             Beach'

                                                                                                      co

                          Mosquito
                           Lagoon-

                           Kennedy                                                                   C)
                    Space Center-

                              Cape
                        Canaveral-

                        Melbourne-

                                                                                                     C)
                       Sebastian                                                                     r4
                           Inlet-

                     Vero Beach-

                                  L

                                                      (Feet Above M.L.S)

                                                         33

                prior to the arrival of'the storm's eye.     This step increase in the times
                also holds true for Category I and 2 exiting storms.       The arrival of gale
                force winds will occur at approximately the same time as Category 2 and 3
                landfalling storms.    This may be explained by the decrease in the storms'
                intensity as they cross land.       It is assumed that a Category 3 exiting
                storm began as a Category 4 storm on the west coast.       While the intensity
                of the hurricane was reduced by crossing land, the size of the storm--or,
                more specifically, the maximum extent of its winds--was not reduced.           it
                would appear reasonable, then, that gale force winds sho(O-darrive earlier
                than would be normally expected for a Category 3 storm.

                The times of arrival for gale force winds are shown in the table below:

                                                Hours Before Arrival of Storm Center

                           Category 1                           6-7.5
                           Category 2                           5-9
                           Category 3                           7-11

                Additional information on the winds produced by exiting storms is provided
                in Table 6.

                Paralleling Hurricanes

                Storm Surge

                A   paralleling storm generates a smaller surge in comparison to a
                landfalling storm.    However, because the storm moves along shore, hundreds
                of miles of coastline may be affected. Figure 10 presents a surge profile
                for a paralleling storm moving north, 20 miles inland.       As can be noted,
                the peak surge values produced along the coast are similar to those of the
                exiting storms modeled by SPLASH II.     A noticeable difference in the surge
                heights around the Cape Canaveral area occurs, which decreases for each
                category of storm. As mentioned previously, this is due to the decrease in
                the continental shelf width off the Cape.

                For a paralleling storm moving along the coast, as shown in Figure 11, the
                surge   heights increase slightly but still remain well below              those
                experienced by a landfalling storm.      Once again, the Cape mitigates the
                surge produced in its vicinity.

                As paralleling storms move off the coast, the surge heights decrease. These
                are shown in figures 12 through 14, which illustrate expected peak surge
                heights for hurricanes 20, 40, and 60 miles offshore.

                The SPLASH II model computations are only valid along the open coast. That
                is, the model is not able to predict what storm surge heights may be
                expected within the tidal rivers or basins for the various storms modeled.
                It is important that this limitation be noted, for a major storm

                                                  34

                                                             FIGURE 10
                                  SURGE PROFILE     PARALLELING HURRICANE: 20 MILES INLAND
                                                                                                              E
                                                                                                              0 u

                                                                                                              4-  Q)
                                                                                                                 C93

                                                                                                              (V 0

                                                                                            4.M    CJ C-i

                              Fla                                                            A                01
                                  gler.                                                                       C4
                                  Beach

                              Ormond  -
                           By-The-Sea-1,
                       Daytona Beach

                          New Smyrna
                                Beach"

                                                                                                              Cp
                                                                                                              Go

                             Mosquito
                              Lagoon-

                              Kennedy_
                       Space Center

                                 Cape
                           Canaveral-

                           Melbourne-

                                                                                                              01
                         Sebastian
                              Inlet-

                        Vero Beach,                                                                          C1

                                      Ln                      1 Ln                        r
                                                            (.Fee-t4 Above M.S.C.)

                                                              35

                                                  FIGURE 11
                           SURGE PROFILE   PARALLELING HURRICANE: ON COASTLINE

                                                                                              4- a)

                                                                                              a)0

                                                                                    fj Cj
                       Flagler                                                                  C)
                                                                                                C4
                        Beach-

                       Ormond-
                   BY-The-Sea-

                Daytona Beach-

                   New Smyrna
                        Beach

                                                                                              00

                    Mosquito
                       Lagoon-

                     Kennedy
                Space Center-

                        Cape
                   Canaveral-

                   Melbourne.-

                  Sebastian
                       Inlet -

                 Vero Beach,

                             Ln                      Ln _T_T__T__T_
                                                (.Ft. Zbove M.S.L.)

                                                      36

                                                       FIGURE 12
                               SURGE PROFILE    PARALLELING HURRICANE.: 20 MILES OFFSHORE

                                                                                                   010

                           Flagler
                             Beach-

                           Ormond-_
                        By-The-Sea

                                                                                                    CD
                     Daytona Beach

                       New Smyrna
                             Beach-

                                                                                                    co

                         Mosquito
                           Lagoon-

                          Kennedy
                     Space Center-

                             Cape
                        Canaveral-

                       Melbourne-

                       Sebastian                                                                   C4
                           Inlet-

                      Vero Beach-

                                                                                        r
                                                      (Feet Above M.S.L.)

                                                       .37

                                                   FIGURE 13
                            SURGE PROFILE   PARALLELING HURRICANE: 40 MILES OFFSHORE

                                                                                                  M

                         Flagler                                                                 CD
                           Beach-

                         Ormond-
                      By-The-Sea-

                   Daytona Beach,-

                     New Smyrna
                          Beach--

                                                                                                co
                       Mosquito
                         Lagoon-
                        Kennedy                                                                 C)
                   Space Center-

                           Cape
                      Canaveral-

                                                                                                0

                     Melbourne-

                     Sebastian
                         Inlet-

                   Vero Beach,-

                               Ln                       Ln          CD
                                                   (FeeCAbove M.S.L.)

                                                       38

                                                               FIGURE 14
                                   SURGE PROFILE     PARALLELING HURRICANE: 60 MILES OFFSHORE

                                   Flagler
                                      Beach-

                                   Ormond-
                               By-The-Seal-

                           Daytona Beach-

                              New Smyrna
                                     Beach[-

                                                                                                                     co

                                 .Mosquito
                                   Lagoon-

                                  Kennedy
                           Space Center-

                                     Cape
                               Canaveral-

                                                                                                                     0

                               Melbourne-

                              Sebastian
                                   Inlet-

                            Vero Beach.-

                                                                                                                  C3
                                           LA
                                           r4
                                                                  (Feet Above M.S.L.)

                                                                  .39

                  paralleling the coastline may produce surge heights in excess of those
                  computed along the coast.

                  The increased surge heights within the tidal rivers are the results of
                  winds produced from predominantly one direction for an extended period of
                  time. A storm paralleling the Florida coastline        produces northwesterly
                  winds over the rivers for its entire track, causing the waters to be pushed
                  along with it. This is known as a "tilted sea" and     can occur in any closed
                  or partially closed basin. This effect may be most     notable in the northern
                  reaches of the Indian and Banana rivers.

                  Pre-Landfall Hazard Times

                  For any given paralleling track, the arrival of the storm-generated surge
                  will occurV on the average, approximately 2.0 hours before arrival of the
                  storm center.     This figure varies, depending on the category of storm
                  considered but, on the average, is similar to the time histories of other
                  stormns.    The table below summarizes the expected arrival time of
                  significant surge heights by category:

                                           Hours Before Arrival of Storm Center

                           Category  1                    .0.5
                           Category  2                   1.0-1.5
                           Category  3                   2.0-2.5
                           Category  4                   2.5-3.0
                           Category  5                   2.5-3.0

                  The time histories   of arrival of gale force  winds are provided in   Table 6
                  and, as with other movements, arrive well in   advance of the storm surge.

                                                      40

                                          VULNERABILITY ELEMENT

                 INTRODUCTION

                 In the previous section, the hurricane hazards that may adversely impact
                 the coastal areas of East Central Florida were identified and analyzed.
                 This section will identify the areas of the region subject to the effects
                 of those hazards.    Included as part of this section are: methodology used
                 in the identification of vulnerable areas; delineation of evacuation zones;
                 identification of vulnerable geographic areas; and an estimation of the
                 population-at-risk.

                 METHODOLOGY

                 The identification of the areas of the region vulnerable to a hurricane's
                 storm surge is the most important criterion for determining those residents
                 who must evacuate from various hypothetical hurricanes.            As stated
                 previously, the results from the SPLASH Il model provided the primary data
                 by which these areas could be identified.    This model produced peak surge
                 values that could then be compared to the elevations of the land mass.

                 As the SPLASH 11 model only produced such values along the open coast, a
                 major limitation confronted in the use of the model was the lack of surge
                 ffheight data for inland areas.        This resulted in not having a clear
                 indication of those inland areas to be flooded and also an absence of
                 information on the effects of each hypothetical hurricane on the region's
                 inlets and saltwater tide basins.    To correct this deficiency, a number of
                 other sources were utilized in the vulnerability analysis. These included:

                   o  National Ocean Survey Storm Evacuation maps
                   o  Federal Emergency Management Administration Flood Insurance rate maps
                   o  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Plain Information (Volusia Co.)
                   o  Past histories of storm surge inundations for Brevard and Volusia
                         counties

                 The  application of the storm surge values to inland areas was completed
                 with the assistance of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The engineering
                 judgment   provided by the Corps engineers allowed for a reasonable
                 prediction of the potential flooding that may be expected to occur for each
                 category of storm.

                 Due to the limitations of the SPLASH II model in regard to inland flooding,
                 identification of a threshold level which would require residents to
                 evacuate  was not appropriate.      While the importance of not requiring
                 residents in structurally sound homes experiencing only minimal amounts of
                 flooding  to evacuate is recognized, an accurate determination of these
                 areas was not possible through the model.    However, due to the small area
                 in each   county that would be required to evacuate and the short distance

                                                       41

                    required to travel to safety, the impact of persons on the outer edges of
                    vulnerable areas not needing to evacuate is expected to be minimal.

                    LEVELS OF VULNERABILITY

                    Prior to the delineation of threatened areas, two major changes were made
                    with regard to the identified levels of vulnerability in the study area.
                    First, the five Saffir-Simpson categories of storms used during the
                    modeling phase of the study were collapsed into two ranges for both Brevard
                    and Volusia counties.    This was done recognizing the similarities of storm
                    surge heights for different intensities of storms and realizing the manner
                    in which storms may change intensity over time.       For both Brevard and
                    Volusia counties, storms were grouped into Category 1-2 or Category 3-5.

                    The second change to the vulnerability levels involved development of a
                    level of threat concept for the study area.     In reviewing the storm surge
                    heights expected along the coastline for a particular storm, it is apparent
                    that a storm event does not represent the same level of threat to every
                    area on the coast.      For instance, a category 3-5 storm landfalling at
                    Melbourne may produce a 13.0-foot surge in that area, while producing only
                    a 3.0-foot surge in Daytona Beach.      To accommodate the range of surge
                    heights that may be experienced by different areas from the same storm, it
                    was necessary to use a standard measure based upon the height of the storm
                    surge rather than category of storm.       The correlation of category of
                    hurricane to level of threat is shown below.     This measure of hurricane
                    threat is applied throughout the following chapters of the technical data
                    report.

                                                     TABLE 7

                                       Category of Hurricane/Level of Threat
                                                  Conversion Table

                    Saffir-Simpson
                      Category                       Storm Surge                 Level of Threat

                        1-2                      3-8 ft. above MSL                      A

                        3-5                      9-15+ ft. above MSL                    B

                                                           42

                EVACUATION ZONES

                Development of evacuation zones is an essential element of the Hurricane
                Evacuation Study.     By grouping areas of a county into zones, a particular
                area will be able to be identified as receiving a common level of storm
                surge and as using the same major evacuation route. Delineating zones will
                also allow residents to identify the zone in which they live, thereby
                assisting     in   the effort to inform residents of            their     immediate
                vulnerability to a storm and elicit the appropriate response.

                The delineation of evacuation zones was based on the Urbanized Area
                Transportation Study Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ's) which have been
                established throughout the two-county study area.         The extent of the area
                to be evacuated for each storm situation and the boundaries of each
                evacuation zone were determined by clustering TAZ's which would receive a
                common level of flooding. In combining TAZ's, consideration was also given
                to population densities and locations in relation to major east-west
                arterials.

                Table 8 presents a listing of evacuation zones for Brevard and Volusia
                counties and their corresponding urban area traffic analysis zones.
                Although efforts were made to include entire TAZ's into an evacuation zone,
                this was not always possible due to major differences between the simulated
                flood limits and zonal boundaries.        A traffic analysis zone may therefore
                be listed beside more than one evacuation zone number, indicating a split
                TAZ.    In addition, for Volusia County, TAZ's were only available for the
                coastal area.      Therefore, in delineating evacuation zones for the inland
                portion of that county, census tract boundaries were used.

                Table 9 provides a description of the geographic limits of each evacuation
                zone for the two counties.           These limits generally follow           widely
                recognizable streets, highways, or unique geographic features.

                The vulnerability analysis resulted in the delineation of the study area
                into 19 zones in Brevard County and 43 zones in Volusia County which would
                require total evacuation under certain scenarios.         Within the remaining
                evacuation zones, all mobile home residents would be required to evacuate
                for any type or intensity of storm approaching the coast.

                The evacuation zones are graphically depicted in the series of maps which
                follow. The maps also identify the predicted extent of evacuation for each
                level of threat based on the surge vulnerability analysis.         The extent of
                evacuation required from a hurricane creating Level-of-Threat A is covered
                by a common color on each of the maps.         Level-of-Threat B cumulatively
                includes the lesser-intensity colored areas indicated by the map legend.

                                                    43

                                                                                    TABLE 8

                                                           Evacuation Zones - Traffic Analysis Zones
                                                                               Equivalency Chart

                                                                               Brevard 'County

                                               Evacuation Zone                        Urban Area Traffic    Analysis Zone

                                                      BI                 311,  312, 313, 314, 315. 323.     336
                                                      82                 324,  325. 326, j38, 340, 341.     342, 343

                                                      B3                 088,  168, 169, 170, 171, 172,     173. 174, 175, 176.
                                                                         177,  178. 179. 180, 181, 210,     220. 223

                                                      B4                 166,  167

                                                      85                 160,  161, 162, 163, 168, 169,     170. 183.

                                                      B6                 085,  159

                                                      B7                 230,  235. 236, 237, 296, 298,     299, 318, 319, 322, 328
                                                                         335

                                                      B8                 253,  254, 297,  316,  320, 321

                                                      B9                 222,  252, 310,  328,  327, 329,   330, 331, 334

                                                      BIO                199,  200

                                                      B11                001,  002, 003,  004,  005, 010,   011, 012, 013, 014,
                                                                         015,  017, 018,  019,  021. 022,   023, 024, 026, 027,
                                                                         028,  029, 031,  032,  033, 034,   035, 036, 037, 038,
                                                                         039,  040. 041,  042,  043, 044,   045, 046, 047, 048,
                                                                         049
                                                      B12                001', 003, 004,  011,  014
                                                      B13                001,  003, 004,  011,  061

                                                      B14                031.  032, 033,  034.  035

                                                      B15                050,  051, 232,  233,  234, 238, 239, 240, 332

                                                      B16                051,  232, 234,  238

                                                      817                224,  225, 244,  245.  246, 247. 248, 249, 251, 257,
                                                                         258,  259, 260,  261,  262, 263, 265, 266, 267, 279,
                                                                         280,  281, 282,  283,  284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289.
                                                                         290.  291, 292,  293,  294, 295

                                                      B18                224,  244, 263,  280,  282, 283, 284, 291, 292, 295

                                                      819                097,  098, 099,  100,  102, 102, 108, 218

                                                      B20                098,  099, 108

                                                      821                101,  104, 105,  106,  107, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113.
                                                                         114,  115, 116.  117,  118, 119. 120, 121, 124, 130,
                                                                         204,  207

                                                      B22                109,  110, 111,  112,  130

                                                                                          44

                                                                    TABLE 8 (cont.)

                                             B23                122,  123,  125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 131, 132, 133,
                                                                134,  136,  137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144,
                                                                145,  146,  147, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154,
                                                                155,  182,  194

                                             B24                131,  132,  138, 147, 152, 153, 155

                                             B25                156,  157,  158

                                             B26                156,  157,  158

                                             B27                006,  007,  008, 053, 054, 068, 081, 903, 1009

                                             B28                096,  226,  227, 228, 229, 250, 264

                                             829                086,  089,  091, 092, 093, 094, 095, 185, 197, 198,
                                                                310,  902

                                                                                   45

                                                                             TABLE 8 (cont.)

                                                       Evacuati,on Zones - Traffic Analysis Zones
                                                                             Equivalency Chart

                                                                             Volusia County

                                                Evacuation Zone                       Urban Area Traffic Analysis Zone

                                                       VI                001,  002,  003, 004,  006, 007.   008, 011, 012, 013, 015

                                                       V2                001,  002,  003, 004,  005. 007,   009, 010. 012, 013, 014

                                                       V3                001,  002,  003, 004,  005, 007.   009, 010. 012, 013, 014

                                                       V4                016,  020,  021. 028,  033

                                                       V5                017,  018,  019, 020,  023, 024,   026, 027, 029, 032

                                                       V6                017,  018,  019, 025,  027. 030,   031

                                                       V7                035,  041,  043

                                                       V8                034,  036,  039, 040,  042, 043

                                                       V9                037,  038.  044

                                                       V10               U45,  049,  05U, 054,  055

                                                       Vil               046.  048,  051, 053,  055

                                                       V12               047,  048.  051, 052,  055

                                                       V13               057.  060.  061, 062,  063

                                                       V14               057,  060,  061, 062.  063

                                                       VIS               056,  058.  059, 061,  062. 063

                                                       V16               087,  088,  089, 107,  110

                                                       V17               082,  083,  087. 088,  089. 090. 092, 107, 108

                                                       V18               111,  113,  114, 116,  117, 120, 138, 139

                                                       V19               117,  120,  137

                                                       V20               161,  162,  163. 164.  165, 166, 167

                                                       V21               137,  160,  170

                                                       V22               185

                                                       V23               168,  169,  185, 186, 187, 188, 190, 191, 203

                                                       V24               185,  188.  189, 192, 201, 202

                                                       V25               204,  209,  210

                                                       V26               204,  209,  210, 212

                                                       V27               214,  216

                                                       V28               078,  079,  080, 082, 083, 084, 085, 086, 091, 092, 093,
                                                                         094,  095,  096, 097

                                                       V29               087,  088,  089, 107, 108, 109, 110

                                                                                         46

                                                                             TABLE 8 (cont.)

                                                V30                098,   099, 100, 101, 102. 103. 104. 105. 106. 111,
                                                                   112   113   114, 115.  116,  117,  118, 119,  120,  121,  122,
                                                                   123:  124:  125, 126.  127.  128,  129, 130.  131,  132,  133.
                                                                   134   135,  136, 137,  140,  141,  142, 143,  144,  145,  146.
                                                                   147:  148,  149, 150,  151,  152,  153, 154,  155,  156,  157.
                                                                   158,  159,  160, 170,  171,  172,  173, 174,  175,  176,  177,
                                                                   178,  179,  180, 181,  182,  183,  184, 189,  193,  194,  195,
                                                                   196,  198,  199, 200,  283

                                                V31                197,  205,  206, 207,  208,  211.  212, 213,  215,  216,  217

                                                V32                064,  066,  067

                                                V33                064,  065,  068, 069

                                                V34                064,  065,  069, 225

                                                V35                070,  071,  074, 075

                                                V36                071,  074,  075

                                                V37                072.  073,  075

                                                V38                076,  077,  286, 289

                                                V39                218.  219,  222, 223

                                                V40                220

                                                V41                221

                                                V42                223,  224,  229, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 284

                                                V43                226,  227,  245, 246, 251, 285

                                                V44                226,  227,  245, 246, 251, 285

                                                V45                252,  258,  288, 2B9

                                                V46                252,  258,  288, 289

                                                V47                228,  229,  230

                                                V48                238

                                                V49                226   227   236, 237, 239, 240, 241, 242, 243. 244, 247,
                                                                   248:  249:  250, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 259, 285, 287

                                         Evacuation  Zone                         Census Tract

                                                V50                832

                                                V51                901

                                                V52                902, 907

                                                V53                903

                                                V54                904, 905, 906

                                                V55                908    -

                                                V56                910

                                                V57                909

                                                                                        47

                                                                         TABLE 9

                                                                EVACUATION ZONE BOUNDARIES

                                                                       Brevard County_

                             Evacuation Zone                                    Zone Description

                                  81                  From Port Canaveral southward to SR 520.

                                  B2                  From SR 520 southward to northern limits of Patrick AFB.

                                  B3                  From northern limits of Patrick AFB to Yacht Club Blvd.

                                  B4                  From Yacht Club Blvd. southward to Pinetree Dr.

                                  B5                  From Pinetree Dr. to unincorporated Floridana Beach.

                                  86                  From southern limits of unincorporated Floridana Beach southward to
                                                      Sebastian Inlet.

                                  87                  From southern limits of Kennedy Space Center to SR 520; East of Indian
                                                      River and west of Banana River, excluding that portion contained in
                                                      Evacuation Zone B8.

                                  B8                  From SR 524 southward to SR 520; East of SR 3 and west of Sykes Creek.

                                  89                  From SR 520 southward to Leslie Dr.

                                  B10                 From Leslie Dr. southward to tip of Merritt Island.

                                  B12                 From northern limits of Brevard County southward to US 1; East of
                                                      Barcelona Dr. and west of SCL railroad.

                                  813                 From northern limits of Brevard County southwaH to SR 402; East of
                                                      SCL railroad.

                                  B14                 From SR 402 southward to NASA Cswy.; East of US 1.

                                  816                 From NASA Cswy. southward to SR 528; East of US 1.

                                  B18                 From SR 528 southward to Wickham Rd.; East of US 1.

                                  B20                 From Wickham Rd. southward to Parkway Dr.; East of US 1.

                                  B22                 From Parkway Dr. to intersection of NASA Blvd. and US I (those areas
                                                      east of US 1).

                                  B24                 From intersection of NASA Blvd. and US 1 southward to southern limits
                                                      of Malabar.

                                  B26                 From southern limits of Malabar to southern boundary of Brevard Couhty.

                                                                            48

                                                                       TABLE 9 (cont.)

                                                                     EVACUATION ZONE BOUNDARIES

                                                                           Volusia County

                                 Evacuation Zone                                    Zone Description

                                 North Coastal Area

                                      V1                  From the northern limits of Volusia County southward to Bosarvey Dr.;
                                                          East of Ocean Shore Blvd. (AIA)

                                      V2                  From the northern limits of Volusia County southward to Bosarvey Or.;
                                                          East of John Anderson Hwy. and west of Ocean Shore Blvdi (AlA)

                                      V3                  From the northern limits of Volusla County southward to Willis Ln.;
                                                          West of John Anderson Hwy.

                                      V4                  From Bosarvey Dr. southward to Oak Ridge Blvd.; East of AIA.

                                      V5                  From Bosarvey Dr. southward to Seabreeze Blvd.; East of Peninsula Dr.
                                                          and west of AM

                                      V6                  From Willis Ln. southward to Seabreeze Blvd.; East of Halifax River
                                                          and west of Peninsula Dr.

                                      V7                  From Seabreeze Blvd. southward to Silver Beach Ave.; East of Halifax
                                                          River and west of Halifax Ave. (or Peninsula Dr. at southern one-third
                                                          of zone)

                                      V8                  From Seabreeze Blvd. southward to Silver Beach Ave.; East of Halifax
                                                          (or Peninsula Dr.) and west of Atlantic Ave. (AIA)

                                      V9                  From Oak Ridge Blvd. southward to Silver Beach Ave.; East of AIA.

                                      V10                 From Silver Beach Ave. southward to Lantana St.; East of AIA.

                                      Vil                 From Silver Beach Ave. southward to Lantana St.; East of Peninsula Dr.
                                                          and west of AIA.

                                      V12                 From Silver Beach Ave. southward to Lantana St.; East of Halifax River
                                                          and west of Peninsula Dr.

                                      V13                 From Lantana St. southward to Ponce De Leon Inlet; East of Halifax
                                                          River and west of Peninsula Dr.

                                      V14                 From Lantana St. southward to Ponce De Leon Inlet; East of Peninsula
                                                          Dr. and west of AM

                                      V15                 From Lantana St. southward to Ponce De Leon Inlet; East of AM

                                      V16                 From Tomoka State Park northern boundary southward to Division Ave.;
                                                          East of N. Beach St.

                                      V17                 From Old Dixie Hwy. southward to SR 40; East of US I and SR 5A; West of
                                                          the Tomoka River tributary.

                                      V18                 From Division Ave. southward to Fairview Ave.; East of S. Beach St. or
                                                          Riverside Dr.

                                      V19                 From Ilth St. southward to Fairview Ave.; East of Daytona Ave. and
                                                          west of Riverside Dr.

                                      V20                 From Fairview Ave. southward to Orange Ave.; East of Daytona Ave. or
                                                          Palmetto Ave.

                                      V21                 From Fairview Ave. southward to San Juan Ave.; East of Ridgewood Ave.
                                                          and west of Daytona Ave. or Palmetto Ave.

                                      V22                 From San Juan Ave. southward to Loomis Ave.; East of Ridgewood Ave.
                                                          and west of Palmetto Ave.

                                                                                    49

                                                                     TABLE 9 (cont.)

                                V23                 From Orange Ave. southward to Canal Rd.; East of Palmetto Ave. or,
                                                    Ridgewood Ave.

                                V24                 From Loomis Ave. southward to Canal Rd.; East of Ridgewood Ave. or
                                                    FEC RR line and west of Palmetto Ave. or Ridgewood Ave.
                                V25                 From Canal Rd. southward to Fleming Ave.; East of FEC RR line and west
                                                    of Lafayette Ave.

                                V26                 From Canal Rd. southward to Commonwealth Blvd.; East of Lafayette Ave.

                                V27                 From Commonwealth Blvd. southward to Turnbull Bay; East of US 1.

                           South Coastal Area

                                V32                 From Ponce De Leon Inlet southward to 5th Ave.; East of N. Atlantic Ave

                                V33                 From Surf St. southward to E. 3rd Ave.; East of Peninsula Ave. and west
                                                    of N. Atlantic Ave.

                                V34                 From Ocean Dr. southward to E. 3rd Ave.; East of Riverside Dr. and*west
                                                    of Peninsula Ave.

                                V35                 From E. 3rd Ave. southward to Hillside Dr.; East of Indian River and
                                                    west of Saxon Dr.

                                V36                 From E. 3rd Ave. southward to Hillside Dr.; East of Saxon Dr. and west
                                                    of S. Atlantic Ave. (AlA)

                                V37                 From 5th Ave. southward to Hillside Dr.; East of S. Atlantic Ave.
                                                    (A1A)

                                V38                 From Hillside Dr. southward to Canaveral Nat). Seashore.

                                V39                 From Spruce Creek/Strickland Bay southward to Columbia St.; East of
                                                    Robinson St. and west of Indian River. excluding Evacuation Zones 40,
                                                    41, and 42.

                                V40                 From Turnbull St. southward to South St.; East of Turnbull Creek and
                                                    west of US 1.

                                V41                 New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport.

                                V42                 From FEC RR and Columbia St. southward to Canal St.; East of Glencoe
                                                    Rd. and west of US 1 and Faulkner St.

                                V43                 From Canal St. southward to Indian River Blvd.; East of Live Oak St.
                                                    and US I and west of Magnolia Ave. and Riverside Dr.

                                V44                 From Canal St. southward to Indian River Blvd.; East of Magnolia Ave.
                                                    and Riverside Dr.

                                V45                 From Indian River Blvd. southward to junction of US I and AIA; East of
                                                    US 1 and west of Riverside Dr.

                                V46                 From Indian River Blvd. southward to southern limits of Volusia County;
                                                    East of Riverside Dr. and AlA.

                                                                                 50

                  POPULATION-AT-RISK

                  In order to calculate the times required to evacuate those areas identified
                  as vulnerable, as well as determine resources needed in an evacuation, an
                  estimation of the threatened population must be made. It is also necessary
                  to enumerate all mobile home residents throughout the study area, even in
                  areas not vulnerable to storm surge, because they must evacuate from
                  hurricane force winds.

                  Dwelling unit and population counts by traffic analysis zone, where
                  applicable, were obtained from the county planning departments in the study
                  area.    As evacuation zones were generally composed of clusters of TAZ's,
                  the appropriate TAZ counts were added, to result in the total population
                  and dwelling units for each evacuation zone.         Where TAZ's were split,
                  census block data      were used to arrive at the appropriate count. The
                  population residing    in each evacuation zone is presented in tables 10 and
                  11.

                  It should be noted     that the population figures presented in these tables
                  exclude two major groupings.      First, the tourist populations residing in
                  hotels/motels or condominiums were excluded from the count under the
                  assumption that they would elect to leave the area well in advance of an
                  evacuation.    They would therefore not place a demand on the transportation
                  system or public shelter facilities in the immediate area.               Secondly,
                  military personnel at Patrick Air Force Base were also excluded, due to
                  their planned advance evacuation of the area.

                                                      51

                                                          TABLE 10

                                             Population & Vehicle Productions
                                             By Evacuation Zone & Destination

                                                     Brevard County

                                             Population                                 Vehicles
                Zone  Cat.       1        2      3A      3B      4          1       2       3A_     3B    - 4

                BI    11*"12  8,684    1,963   1,945   1,737   3,039       4,559  1,031   1,021     912   1,595
                B2    1-2    10,006    2,261   2,421   2,001   3,502       5,253  1,187   1,177   1,051   1,838
                B3    1-2    22,099    4,994   4,950   4,420   7,735      11,602  2,621   2,599   2,321   4,061
                B4    1-2    13,136    2,969   2,942   2,627   4,598       6,896  1,559   1,545   1,379   2,413
                B5    1-2     6,985    1,579   1,565   1,397   2,445       3,667    829     822     733   1,283
                B6    1-2        690      156    155     138     242        363      82      81      72     128

                B7    1-2    15,407    3,482   3,452   3,081   5,392       8,089  1,828   1,812   1,618   2,831
                B8    3-5     7,250    1,639   1,624   1,450   2,537       3,806    860     853     761   1,332
                B9    1-2    11,104    2,509   2,487   2,221   3,886       5,830  1,317   1,306   1,166   2,041
                B10   1-2     1,107       250    249     221     387        581     131     131     116     203
                Bll   WIND    2,082       470    466     416     729       1.093    247     245     218     383
                B12   3-5         59       13      13     12      21         31         7      7       6     11
                B13   1-2        162       37      36     32      57         85      19      19      17      30
                B14   1-2     1,483       335    332     297     519        779     176     174     156     272
                B15   WIND    1,609       364    360     322     563        845     191     189     169     296
                B16   1-2        964      218    216     193     @337       506     114     114     101     177
                B17   WIND    1,852       419    415     370     648        972     220     218     194     340
                B18   1-2     4,813    1,088   1,078     963   1,685       2,527    571     566     505     885
                B19   WIND       868      196    194     174     304        456     103     102             160
                B20   1-2        172       39      39     34      60         90      20      20      18      32
                B21   WIND    1,949       440    437     390     682       1,023    231     229     205     358
                B22   1-2     1,912       432    428     382     669       1,004    227     225     201     351
                B23   WIND    4,305       973    965     861   1,507       2,260    511     507     452     790
                B24   1-2     2,489       563    558     498     871       1,307    296     293     261     457
                B25   WIND    3,739       845    838     748   1,309       1,963    444     440     393     686
                B26   1-2        430       97      96     86     151        226      51      51      45      79
                B27   WIND        42         9      9       8     15         22         5      5       4       8
                B28   WIND       123       28      28     25      43         65      15      15      13      22
                B29   WIND        76       17      17     15      27         40         9      9       8     14

                  Key:  I = Total
                        2 = Public Shelter
                        3 = Friend/Relative (a--in county; b--out of county)
                        4 = Hotel/Motel

                                                                 52

                                                       TABLE 11

                                          Population & Vehicle Productions
                                          By Evacuation Zone & Destination

                                                    Volusia County

                                          Population                                      Vehictes
         ZONE    CAT.          1          2           3          4            1         2          3          4
         V1      1-2           811        183         344        284          368         83       156        129
         V2      3-5        10,510      2,375       4$1'456    3,679        4,765      1,077    2,020      1,668
         V3      1-2           536        121         227        188          243         55       103        85
         V4      1-2           901        204         382        315          409       185        173        143
         V5      3-5         7s915      1,789       3,356      2,770        3,589       811     1,522      1,256
         V6      1-2         1,425        322         604        499          646       146        274        226
         V7      1-2         1,129        255         479        395          512       116        217        179
         V8      3-5         4,535      IsO25       1,923      1,587        2,056       465
         V9                                                                                        872        719
                 1-2           218          50         92          76           99        23        42        34
         vio     1-2           584        132         248        204          265         60       112        92
         Vil     3-5         2,199        497         932        770          997       225        423        349
         V12     1-2         lsl4l        258         484        399          517       117        219        181
         V13     1-2         1,113        251         472        390          505       114        214        177
         V14     3-5         2,109        07          894        738          956       216        405        335
         V15     1.-.2         894        202         379        313          405         91       172        142
         V16     1-2           578        131         245        202          262         59
         V17                                                                                       ill        92
                 3-5         3,412        771       1,447      1,194        ls547       350        656        541
         V18     1-2           433          98        184        151          196         45        83        68
         V19     3-5         ls709        386         725        598          775       175        329        271
         V20     1-2           154          35         65          54           70        16        30        24
         V21     3-5           859        194         364        301          389         88       165        136
         V22     3-5         2,468        558       1,046        864        1,119       253        474        392
         V23     1-2         4,491      1,015       1,904      1,572        2,036       460        863        713
         V24     3-5           794        179         337        278          360         81       153        126
         V25     3-5              0           0          0          0
         V26                                                                     0         0         0          0
                 1-2         1,533        346         650        537          695       157        295        243
         V27     1-2         1,201'       271         509        421          545       123        231        191
         V28     WIND          .520       118         220        182          236         53       100        93
         V29     WIND          340          77        144        119          154         35        65        54
         V30     WIND        7,342      1,659       3,113      2,570        3,329       752     1,412      1,165
         V31     WIND        6,905      1,560       2,928      2,417        3,131       707     1,328      1,096
         V32     1-2           387          87        165        135          175         39        75        61
         V33     3-5         2,006        453         851        702          909       205        386        318
         V34     1-2         1,032        233         438        361          468,      106        198        164
         V35     1-2           582        132         247        204          264         60       112        92
            Key: I = Total
                   2 = Public Shelter
                   3 = Friend/Relative
                   4 = Hotel/Motel

                                                            53

                                                       TABLE 11 (cont.)

                                              P6pulation                                       Vehicles
            ZONE    CAT.          1           2           3         4            1                              4

            V36     3-5         1,881         425         J98       658          853       193        362       298-
            V37     1-2           226         51          96         79          102        23         43        36
            V38     1-2           307         69          131       107          139        31         59        49
            V39     1-2           528         119         224       185          239        54        101        84
            V40     3-5           880         199         373       308          399        90        169       140
            V41     3-5*             0          0           0           0           0          0         0         0
            V42     3-:5        7,199      1,627       3,052       2,520        3,264      738     1 .384      1,142
            V43     3-5         1,737         393         736       608          788       178        334       276
            V44     1-2           459         104         194       161          208        47         88        73
            V45     3-5         1,568         354         665       549          711       160        302       249
            V46     1-2           545         123         231       191                     56        105        86

            V47     WIND             0          0           0           0           0          0         0         0
            V48     3-5              0          0           0           0           0          0         0         0
            V49     WIND        2,591         586      1,098        907         1,175       266       498       411

            V50     WIND          129         29          55         45            58          13      25        20
            V51     WIND          488         110         207       171          221           50      94        77
            V52     WIND        1,540         348         653       539          698        158       296       244
            V53     WIND          966         219         409       338          438           99     186       153
            V54     WIND            82        19          34         29            37          9       is        13
            V55     WIND        3,539         800      1,500      .1,239       1,605        363       680       562
            V56     WIND          870         197         369       304          394           89     167       138
            V57     WIND          841         190         357       294          381           86     162       133

            Key:  I    Total
                  2    Public Shelter      22.63
                  3    Fr./Rel.            42.43
                  4    Hot/Mot             35.0

                                                            54

                                                                       SECTION

                                                                                                        NORTH
                                     U52
                                             U53
                                                       uso                     RUM 2

                                       Z,
                                               U56

                                                                 DPEVAAD

                                                                                        RUN 3

                                                                   @w       o
                                                                    D27

                                                                        323

                                                                                LEM        9p=
                  Do E M                                                               I .
                                                                                       Z

                          uj -@/.j

                                                                                                 AIA

                                                                                       C01-1

                                                                                                                                                             SECTION I

                                                                                                                                                        SCALE: 1"    2 @@JLES
                                                                                                                                                             LEGEND
                                                                                                                                                             MCUATION ZONES
                                                      woftA     @@k'                                                                               IBM       LEYEL OF URRY A
                                                       BASIN
                                                                                                                                                             LEUR OF UREAT 9
                                                        k                                                                                                    RACUATIN ROUTES

                                  U28
                                                                  Uls

                                                                                         D ST,

                                                                                !,2
                                      AVE.
                                                                                       PLAZA   R@
                              HAP

                                                                 IMP,

                                                                                                      PLAZA 'Luo'

                                                                                                         EUCLID VE,

                                                                                                                     TY BLVD,
                                                                                                              UNIVE

                                                                                                                           OLM

                                                                                                                   MAIN S

                                                                                                                     BROAD Y

                                                                                                21                             ACH

                                                                      V30

                                                                                              uyZ

                                                                                          \16                                  ulo
                                                                                                                        ul

                                                                                                                   X@23

                                                                                                               AL 9

                                                                                                                 U25                          DUN tNTON AVE.

                                                                                                                                                SECTIR 2
                                                                                                                                        UU, "MORM ME
                                                                                                                                            L@U\j
                                                          0@

                                                        Ilk

                                                                                                                                            SCM: 1"     2 @MES
                                                                                                                                                 LEGEND
                                                                                                                                                               NES
                                                                    ts
                                                                                                                                                 LEUR CV YMEhf h
                                                                                                                                                       cv TM
                                                                                   If                                                                             -'s
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                                                                                            TRINISUL  Ali[
                                                                                 ,-47--

                                                                                                       RAGL     AIJ 1,

                                                                                                                 U37
                                                                               U43

                                                                                     U49
                                                                                                                         I'v
                                                                                                                                                 A

                                                                                                                                           K k

                                                                                                                                                            X

                                                                                                                                              ;IXY

                                                                                                                                                              SECTION 3

                                                                                                                                                         RUE: I"     - 2 2*LES
                                                                                                                                                               LEGEND

                                                                                                                                                               MH OF RIM), 9
                                   MOW
                                       BREVARD
                                                                              CUUM

                                                                                          LIONEL

                                                                                             B
                                                                                                   ET
                                                                                               ROCK

                                                                                       Dil

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                                                   SA                                  PAR H
                                                  LAU
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                                                             TIGER
                                                                                           DAIRY

                                                                               LAKE                     CA DEN
                                                                                                            TROPIC
                                                                                                                 1,6

                                                                                                               sou

                                                                                                 405

                                                                                 FOX LK

                                                                                                                                                       SECTION 4

              CPA[

                       oil

                                                                                                                                                   SCRE: I" - 2 NILES

                                                                                                    NASA     PKWY.                  f
                                                                                                                                                         LEVEL OV YMUHT h
                                                                                                                                                                  YORM 3
                                                                                                                                                         LEVEL
                                                                                                                                                                     2CUTES

                                T1Cb

                                   CS  HWY.                                         P*   IsL'AL5

                A                      t@sm

                                 FAY

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                                                                                       tit

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                      CANAVERAL  CROVIS
                    1 -16 -Us

                                 JAMES
                                                                                                               28
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                                                      OSENTINE
                                                                                                                                                      ol

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                     2 4                  F E N N E p
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                                                                                                                                                       E
                                                                                                                                          it           V
                                                           BARTON

                                                                             LEVITT

                                   uu@ Hirr
                                                                                                                           SECTION 5
                         BARNES
                                                                                                                     ul@"UlllMXUvv ME

                                                             ,NX

                                                                                                                                   2 N
                                                                                                                        SCUE: I" -   , ILES

                                                                                                                                         NES
                                                                                                                             MCUATIO"l ZO,
                                                                                                                             LIM OF TMUT h
                                                                                                                             LEUR OF EMU a
                                                                                                                             MCUUM ROMS
                                         WICKHAM                              @.o
             -----------------

                                                                                                           3

            - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

                                                                POST

                                                      TARKWAY
                                                                                                             pi
                                                                                                       a
                                                        LAKE   WASHINGTON

                                                                AURORA

                                                                         nONTR AL
                                                                  321                                              k

                                                                SARNO
                                                                                                                       34

                                                                                              22

                                                   ELLIS
                                                               NASA

                                                                            NASA
                                                  WERIDAN
                                             SR                          HIBISCUS

                                                EAU CALLIE
                                                                                 IEDGE
                                                               I HENRY               WOOD
                                                                                                                               AN
                                                                                   D23
                                                                                           UNIVERSIly

                                                                       29                  FLORIDA

                                                                                                                IV,

                                                                           PALM    BAY

                                                                                                                                    SECTION G
                              U L PORT MALAG R
               TIL17MAN           CANAL

                                                               B23

                                                            HALL
                                                                                     D Is

                                                                                                                                SCM: 1"    2 @ALES
                                                                                                                                    LEGEND
                                   WACO                                                                                             EVACUATION ZONES
                                                                                                                                    LEVEL OF Tt
                                                                                                                                    LEVEL OF TOREAT 0
                                                      VAUARIA                                                                       incumn ROUTES

                                                                    GRANT

                                                                                                                         B6

                                                                                  925

                                             BEHAVIORAL SURVEY ELEMENT

                INTRODUCTION

                There are many factors contributing to the hurricane-vulnerability of the
                coastal areas of East Central Florida.        Previous sections of this report
                have identified and quantified a number of these variables which may be
                used as a basis for measuring the potential evacuation time of the coastal
                areas.   However, besides defining hurricane hazards, determining their
                effects on the region, and identifying potential coastal evacuees, an
                essential type of data that must be examined in order to quantify
                evacuation time is the human factor of hurricane response.          When and if
                threatened residents would evacuate, how many vehicles would be needed, the
                preplanned destinations of evacuees, and other behavioral tendencies are
                added elements in the time required for an evacuation of an area.

                One means by which these behavioral characteristics can be determined is
                through a survey of the threatened coastal area population.            The East
                Central Florida Regional Planning Council employed the firm of H. W.
                Lochner, Inc., to conduct a statistically significant survey to determine
                the responses of the coastal population residents to an approaching
                hurricane. From this population, a random sample was drawn and a telephone
                survey conducted.     The results of the survey were then tabulated and
                analyzed, forming the basis for making assumptions of the evacuation
                behavior of the entire threatened population.        In conjunction with other
                background information collected, the survey results provided input to the
                process for determining evacuation times.

                METHODOLOGY

                The behavioral survey for Brevard and Volusia counties focused only on the
                population at risk.     Since most residents of the study area will not be
                threatened and, consequently, not need to evacuate during a hurricane
                event, there was no need to determine their behavioral characteristics.
                For that reason, the survey was limited to, and a sample was drawn from,
                the region's coastal population.

                As with almost any survey, there were three major components involved with
                undertaking the behavioral survey for the coastal area of East Central
                Florida.   These consisted of designing the survey questionnaire, drawing
                the sample, and administering,the survey.       Besides those activities, the
                survey process also included tabulating the responses and analyzing the
                results. This section of the report discusses the methodology and presents
                the behavioral survey results (a copy of the consultant's report providing
                more details on the survey is available from the Regional Planning
                Council).

                                                      55

                   The sample, itself, was drawn from city directories of R. L. Polk and
                   Company and the phone directories in the study area.     Starting at a random
                   point in these records, a skip interval was employed to identify residents
                   to be surveyed, assuring not only that the sample would be random but also
                   giving proportional representation in the survey to each of the counties in
                   the study area.     In drawing the sample, 20% more names than were needed
                   were identified to ensure that the necessary 400 completed surveys would be
                   obtained despite refusals and other potential problems.      Since the survey
                   was to be conducted by telephone, names and addresses of those persons
                   chosen through the skip interval method were simultaneously verified in the
                   phone directory.     Only those residents listed in the directories were
                   included in the sample.

                   Survey Administration

                   After the sample had been drawn, notification postcards were sent to all
                   persons to be surveyed.     Arriving one to three days before the scheduled
                   interview, the postcards were to inform potential respondents of the
                   survey, generally explain the purpose of the survey, and request their
                   cooperation.   At the same time, news releases explaining the Hurricane
                   Evacuation Study program, in general, and the behavioral survey, in
                   particular, were distributed to the media for publication.

                   Telephone interviews were conducted from April 26, 1982 to May 15, 1982 by
                   a team of professional interviewers.    Calls were made during the day, in
                   the evening, and on weekends, and up to four callbacks were made before
                   abandoning a potential respondent.     With only a 2.97% refusal rate, the
                   necessary 400 surveys were completed by the interviewers.          To ensure
                   accurate results, interviewers were monitored during the surveying process,
                   and completed surveys were examined for quality and consistency.

                   Compilation

                   Upon completion of the survey, the results were compiled and tabulated.
                   Table 12    shows the results.       For several of the questions, more
                   information was obtained than was presented in this summary of the results.
                   In the evacuation destination question, for example, respondents indicating
                   that they would go to the home of a friend or relative or to a hotel/motel
                   were asked to specify the county in which their particular destination was
                   located, whi-le respondents indicating that they had experienced a hurricane
                   were asked the date and location of the storm experience. This information
                   was used for planning purposes and/or refining behavioral assumptions.

                   Design of Survey Instrument

                   One of the most important    parts of the survey process was design of the
                   survey questionnaire.     As the primary tool for collecting behavioral
                   information, the questionnaire had to address all the necessary issues,
                   avoid ambiguity and bias, and be short and simple enough to facilitate

                                                        56

                                                     TABLE 12

                                             BEHAVIORAL SURVEY RESULTS

         1. Do you Live in a:singZe-fc2niZy home?             Single-Family          74.6% t4.1%
                                 multi-fconiZy home?          Multi-Family           22.4% t3.9%
                                 mobile home?                 Mobile Home             1.8% +-1.3%
                                 other?,                      Other                   1.2% tl.O%

         2.   If you were ordered by a goverment              Immediately:              64.7% 4.6%
              authority to evacuate, how soon                 Certain # of   Hours:     27.5% 4.3%
              could you be ready, and when would              Never:                    7.8% @.6%
              you Zeave?

         3.   How many vehicles are there in your             One Vehicle:          192 Households
              household?                                      Two Vehicles:         170 Households
                                                              Threa Vehicles:        53 Households
                                                              Four Vehicles:            Households

              a) How many vehicles would you use
                  during evacuation?                          Vehicles to be used:          70.0%

              b)  Would you need transportation,
                  such as a bus or taxi?                      Yes: 1.6% +1.5%

         4.   How many people live in your home,
              including you?                                  Average: 2.28 persons per household

         5.   Is there anybody who could not be                                +
              evacuated without help from outside             Yes:    3.7%      1.8%
              your home?

         6.   After leaving, where would you go?              To a  Red Cross Shelter:      18.3% �3.7%
                                                              To a  Friend or Relative:     38.1% t4.7%
                                                              To a  Hotel or Motel:         30.6% �4.5%
                                                              Don't Know:                   13.0% �3.3%

         7. Have you ever experienced a direct
              hurricane strike?                               Yes:    48.7%    4.8%

         8. How old are you?                                  Average age of respondents: 55.4 yrs.

         9. what is your occupation?                          White Collar:           58.1%     �4.7%
                                                              Skilled Tradesman:      17.6%     �3.6%
                                                              Blue Collar:            24.3%     4.1%

                                                        57

                    administration by telephone.      Only with these characteristics could the
                    questionnaire produce acceptable results.

                    The basis of the questionnaire consisted of the major behavioral issues
                    associated with hurricane evacuation.       These included evacuation time,
                    vehicle use, special transportation needs, special assistance needs,
                    planned destinations, prior hurricane experience, and perception of threat.
                    Using other hurricane evacuation surveys as models, a set of questions
                    incorporating all of these issues was developed.           Along with these
                    substantive issues, a set of questions to identify general socio-economic
                    and demographic characteristics of the respondents was prepared.

                    Besides the questionnaire itself,        a notification postcard was also
                    prepared.   The purpose of the postcard was to maximize the cooperation by
                    potential respondents and minimize the refusal rate.         Both the survey
                    instrument and the notification postcard were pretested on a group of 25
                    households of varying economic and educational backgrounds in different
                    geographic areas.     Based upon the results of the pretest, minor changes
                    were made to both the questionnaire and the postcard, and a final version
                    of each was developed.

                    Drawing the Sample

                    The primary objective of any survey is to assess the characteristics of the
                    target population.     To ensure that the survey is representative of that
                    target population, it is necessary to draw a random sample which will
                    produce results at the desired level of confidence with an acceptable range
                    of error.    This involves identifying the target population, determining
                    sample size, and developing an-acceptable method for actually drawing the
                    sample.

                    For the Hurricane Evacuation Study, the segment of the population whose
                    behavioral tendencies must be assessed is the,population threatened by
                    hurricane conditions.    According to the hazard analysis, there are almost
                    217,000 people in the two-county area who would be threatened by, and who
                    should evacuate prior to the onset of, hurricane conditions.      This target
                    population, therefore, consists of coastal residents in Brevard and Volusia
                    counties.

                    After identification of the target population, sample size was determined.
                    For planning purposes, it was determined that a 95% confidence level with a
                    margin of error of plus or minus 5% was needed. This would provide results
                    accurate enough to make assumptions to be used in the planning process.
                    Based upon the size of the target population and the diversity of that
                    population which was estimated through researching other similar surveys in
                    Florida, it was determined that a minimum sample size of 400 was needed to
                    ensure that the results corresponded to the desired confidence level and
                    error margin.

                                                           58

               As  shown   in Table 12,     the results of each question     are given as      a
               percentage along with the margin of error. The 95% confidence level, which
               was used in this survey, signifies that the survey response, plus or minus
               the margin of error, produces a range within which responses from the
               target population would occur 95% of the time. In Question 2, for example,
               64.7% of the respondents, plus or minus 4.6%, said that they would evacuate
               immediately.    What this means is that if the entire target population (all
               coastal residents in the two-county study area) were questioned, it is 95%
               certain that between 60.1% and 69.3% of them would indicate that they would
               evacuate immediately if ordered to do so.

               ANALYSIS

               A survey of behavioral tendencies is useful for planning purposes only if
               the results can be used to make assumptions about the expected behavior of
               the threatened population during hurricane conditions. In order to use the
               survey results for this purpose, it was necessary to analyze the results,
               assess their validity, determine their significance, and compare them to
               similar surveys conducted in Florida.     With only nine questions, half of
               which were to identify socio-economic or demographic characteristics of the
               respondents, the behavioral survey did not require extensive analysis.

               Several questions in the behavioral survey were particularly important to
               the Hurricane Evacuation Study planning process.          These included the
               questions involving evacuation time, vehicle use, transportation assistance
               needs, evacuation destination, and prior hurricane experience. Based upon
               the survey results for these issues, plans were developed for evacuating
               and sheltering coastal residents of East Central Florida.

               Evacuation Time

               Probably the most important issue addressed in the           behavioral survey
               related to evacuation.       The specific aspects of evacuation behavior
               considered most important for the study were when and if most of the
               threatened population would evacuate.       It was particularly important to
               determine how long it would take the threatened residents to begin
               evacuating if they were ordered to do so by governmental authorities.

               Since the coastal areas had recently experienced an evacuation for
               Hurricane David in 1979, it was expected that a significant percentage of
               the residents would choose not to evacuate.       Hurricane David caused only
               minor damage to the coast, and it was thought that many residents might be
               hesitant to leave during a future hurricane. The results of the behavioral
               survey, however, showed this not to be the case.        Instead of refusing to
               evacuate, the majority indicated that they would evacuate within two and a
               half hours of receiving an evacuation order.      As shown on Table 12, over
               64% of the respondents to the survey indicated in Question 2 that they
               would leave immediately if ordered to do so.      This figure is less than the
               evacuation response time obtained in other hurricane evacuation surveys

                                                       59

                    conducted in Florida.      Several explanations exist for this low response.
                    It could be that the threatened coastal residents, having recently
                    experienced evacuation, are aware of the time involved and responded
                    accordingly.    On the other hand, it could be coastal residents are willing
                    to wait a few hours until they verify the need to evacuate through friends
                    or neighbors.    One other survey questions hurricane experience, which will
                    be analyzed later in the report and may provide more of an explanation for
                    these results.

                    Responses to Question 2 also indicated that 27.5% of the threatened
                    residents would evacuate within a certain number of hours.             The mean
                    evacuation response time for that group was found to be 2.17 hours.           From
                    the results of this question,    then,   it was found that almost 92.2% of the
                    survey population would evacuate within a few hours if ordered to do so.
                    However, 7.8% of the respondents indicated that they would not evacuate if
                    ordered.   This was higher than any area other than Southeast Florida and
                    may reflect past evacuation experiences with Hurricane David.

                    The major implication of the responses to this question related to
                    transportation.    Since the results of Question 2 showed that more than 64%
                    of the threatened population would evacuate immediately and another 27%
                    would leave shortly thereafter, the indications were most evacuees would be
                    on the roads during the first few hours after the evacuation order was
                    issued. That information--along with an estimate of 7.8% of the population
                    presumably refusing to evacuate--was used in developing a viable evacuation
                    plan, establishing a system of evacuation routes, and undertaking other
                    planning activities.

                    Hurricane Experience

                    It would seem that there would be a positive correlation between hurricane
                    experience    and the willingness to evacuate to a place of safety.
                    Respondents having experienced a direct hurricane strike and understanding
                    the potential damage posed by such a strike would presumably be more
                    inclined to evacuate than those with no hurricane experience.                When
                    considering hurricane experience, however, it is necessary to differentiate
                    between actual hurricane experience and perceived hurricane experience.
                    While many people feel they have experienced a direct hurricane strike,
                    oftentimes they have only been exposed to the fringes of the storm.

                    Since the results of Question 7 indicated that over 48% of the respondents
                    had experienced a direct hurricane strike, the evacuation response derived
                    from Question 2 does not follow.       When information collected as part of
                    this question relating to the date and place of the direct hurricanestrike
                    was compared to actual hurricane information, however, it was found that
                    only 10% of the respondents had actually experienced a direct hurricane
                    strike and another 7.1% may have.       This indicates that many more people
                    think they have experienced the worst part of a hurricane when they
                    actually have not. Hurricane David was not a hurricane over land, although
                    many of the responses referred to that storm.      Once again, those residents

                                                         60

                evacuating from Hurricane David (which they perceived as a direct strike)
                may account for the low response rate for evacuation in a future storm.
                This shows the need for more public information on hurricane hazards.

                Transportation

                A major part of the entire evacuation issue is transportation. Not only is
                it necessary to know when people will respond to an evacuation order, it is
                also important to know the means of evacuation, the number of vehicles to
                be used, and how many households would need some type of assistance in
                evacuating. A series of questions in the survey attempted to address those
                issues.

                To adequately plan for a hurricane evacuation, it is necessary to know how
                many vehicles will be on the road. This could vary considerably, depending
                upon whether families would use only one car during an evacuation, whether
                they would use more than one car to prevent damage to a vehicle left in a
                vulnerable area, or whether they would use some form of transportation
                other than their car.       Question 3a specifically addressed the issue of
                vehicle usage during a hurricane evacuation.

                According to the response to Question 3a, 70% of all registered vehicles
                owned by coastal residents would be used in an evacuation. This means that
                30% of all the vehicles registered to coastal dwellers would be off the
                road during an evacuation.        This percentage is consistent with vehicle
                usage rates obtained from other coastal surveys conducted in Florida.

                Besides vehicle usage, other transportation characteristics which are
                important to  know for evacuation planning include the number of households
                which would need bus or taxi type of transportation to evacuate and the
                number who    could not be evacuated without assistance from outside the
                household.    These factors have implications for transportation planning in
                general and for disaster preparedness operating agencies in particular.
                Not only do   these figures provide an indication of the number of emergency
                vehicles which will have to be used in an evacuation, they also provide an
                indication of the personnel who will be needed,

                Question 3b related to the need for bus or taxi transportation.          According
                to   the survey results,        1.6% of the respondents woul       'd need     such
                transportation to evacuate.       Because the margin of error for this factor
                was plus or minus 1.5%, there is a range of error of plus or minus 94% in
                the response. This means that the number of households needing bus or taxi
                transportation can be estimated to range from .1% to 3.1% of all households
                in the target population.      While such a high rate of variation with small
                numbers would be unacceptable for detailed transit planning, these figures
                provided the general estimate needed for hurricane evacuation purposes.

                Like Question 3b, Question 5 addressed only a small part of the entire
                population.    Responses to Question 5 indicated that 3.7% of the threatened
                population would need assistance from outside the household to evacuate.

                                                       61

                    As with Question 3b, *there is a high margin of error relative to the
                    percentage answering "yes." At the 95% confidence level, the need for
                    outside help in evacuating can be estimated to range from 1.9% to 5.5% of
                    the target population.       While that is a substantial variation, it does
                    provide a general indication of the number of emergency personnel and
                    vehicles required for evacuation.

                    The implications of the results derived from this series of questions are
                    significant.    Since vehicle usage rates can be derived from the behavioral
                    survey, total vehicle usage can be derived by applying these rates to
                    vehicle registration information.       When these estimates are added to
                    shelter facilities, total demand on the region's transportation system
                    during an evacuation can be estimated.        Based upon these estimates, a
                    viable inter- and intra-regional transportation plan can be developed.
                    When transportation assistance needs derived from the behavioral survey
                    results are incorporated in this process, a comprehensive transportation
                    plan can be prepared.

                    Destination

                    For hurricane evacuation planning--and especially for this Hurricane
                    Evacuation Study--it is necessary to know the preplanned destinations of
                    the evacuating population.      Question 6 in the behavioral survey addressed
                    the destination issue.       It asked respondents where they would go after
                    leaving their homes during a hurricane.

                    The responses to this question varied considerably from responses to a
                    similar question asked in other hurricane evacuation surveys conducted in
                    Florida.    The primary difference related to the number of responses
                    indicating a public shelter would be the destination.        In the Hurricane
                    Evacuation Study behavioral survey, 18.3% of the respondents identified a
                    public shelter as their destination, while the same question included in a
                    similar survey focusing on the inland area of East Central Florida produced
                    a shelter usage response almost three times that identified in the coastal
                    area of the region.

                    Besides the public shelter response, 13% of the respondents indicated that
                    they did not know what their destinations would be upon evacuation.         This
                    figure was lower than that derived from the Inland Shelter behavioral
                    survey and fell between the high and low values for other coastal
                    behavioral surveys.     These results seem to indicate that there is        more
                    awareness of the possibility of a hurricane among coastal residents than
                    among inland residents and they are more prepared in the event of one
                    approaching their area.      This may also indicate that due to previous
                    evacuation experience during Hurricane David, individuals are not waiting
                    to the last minute to decide where they will go in the event of an
                    evacuation.

                    Besides the 18.3% of the respondents who identified a public shelter as
                    their destination after evacuating, and the 13% who indicated that they did

                                                            62

              not know where they would go, Question 6 showed that 38.1% of the
              respondents would go to the homes of friends or relatives, while the
              remaining 30.6% would go to hotels or motels. For that friend/relative and
              hotel/motel response, the survey obtained additional information.          The
              results showed that 67% of Volusia County residents and 53% of Brevard
              County residents having homes of friends/relatives or hotels/motels as
              destinations would stay in the same county, while the remaining would leave
              their respective county. These results have implications for developing an
              inter- and intra-regional transportation plan for hurricane evacuation.

              COMPARISONS TO OTHER STUDIES

              Several other studies have been conducted in Florida to assess the probable
              behavioral tendencies of threatened residents during a hurricane event.
              Several of these studies were referenced in the previous section for
              purposes of comparing the results of questions included in those studies
              with similar questions asked in the behavioral survey for the East Central
              Florida Inland Shelter Study.     This section will examine those surveys in
              more detail while identifying some of the main similarities and differences
              between the Inland Shelter Study behavioral survey and the other surveys.

              The first major behavioral survey conducted as part of the recent hurricane
              evacuation planning activities undertaken in Florida was administered in
              the southwest Florida area as part of the "Lee County Flood Emergency
              Evacuation Plan" (SWFRPC, 1979).     That survey was then used as a base for
              developing a similar survey for the Tampa Bay region, the "Behavioral
              Survey for the Tampa Bay Flood Emergency Evacuation Plan." After that, a
              behavioral survey, modeled after the Tampa Bay study, was undertaken in the
              Sanibel-Captiva area.     Finally, the Southwest Florida Regional Planning
              Council undertook a survey in 1981 that was essentially an extension of the
              1979 Lee County survey.

              Besides the behavioral survey of the coastal area of East Central Florida,
              several other surveys were conducted in the same general time frame as part
              of other Inland Shelter Study or Hurricane Evacuation Study projects.
              These include behavioral surveys for the inland area of East Central
              Florida, Southeast Florida coastal area, the Treasure Coast coastal area,
              the Central Florida inland area, and both the coastal and inland parts of
              the Withlacoochee area.   Only the results of the Southeast Florida survey
              and the East Central Florida inland survey, however, are presented here.
              Table 13 shows the results of the substantive questions for selected
              behavioral surveys compared to the East Central Florida coastal area study.
              Since all of these surveys were based on the Lee County study, the
              similarity in questions facilitated comparisons of the results.    The major
              differences among the surveys related to survey methodology. Specifically,
              the Lee County and Southwest Florida studies were voluntary surveys
              published in the newspaper, while the rest were telephone surveys. Because
              the Lee County and Southwest Florida studies were not scientific surveys,

                                                 63

                                                                                               TABLE 13
                                                    COMPARISON MATRIX OF BEHAVIORAL SURVEYS WITHIN FLORIDA

                                                               East Central      East central      Lee         Tampa          Sanibel-          South- South-
                                                                  Florida           Florida        County       R.) y         Captiva           West      east
                                                                   Inland           Coastal                                                     Florida   Florida
                          EVACUATION RESPONSE
                                Immediate                      80.4% + 4.1%      64.7% + 4.6%      N.A. 1    77.1% + 1.8%                       N.A.      69.2%4   Z + 1.3%
                                Certain Number of Hours        15.3% + 3.7%      27.5% + 4.3%      N.A.      17.2% + 1.7%     95.3% + 2.1%      N.A.      4.5%     2 + 0.7%
                                Never                           4.4% + 2.1%       7-8Z + 2.6%      N.A.        5.7% + 1.01     2.22 + 1.522     N.A.      26.3%    2 + 1.62
                                Average of the certain
                                number of hours                     2.05               2.17        N.A.              1.40          3.97         N.A.      2.3%

                          VEHICULAR USAGE                           81.9%              70.0%       81.0%             71.1%         77.3%        74.7%     70.2%
                          NEED FOR TRANSPORTATION               2;1% + 1.5%       1.6% + 1.5%      N.A.        4.0% + 0.6%          N.A.        N.A.      18.1%    2 + 0.2%
                          NEED FOR SPECIAL HELP                  6.6%+   2.5%      3.7% +  1.8%    N.A.        3.3%  + 0.5%         N.A.        N.A.      N.A.
                          DESTINATION
                                Shelter                        45.6% +   5.1%    18.3%  +  3.7%    21.0%     37.9%   + 1.4%     8.12 +  2.92    24%       23.1%    2 +  1.52
                                Friend or Relative             18.2% +   4.0%    38.1%  +  4.7%              25.8%   + 1.3%   45.4%  +  5.31
                                                                                                   53.0%                                        13%       28.02    72+  1.6%
                                Hotel or Motel                 14.6% +   3.6%    30.6%  +  4.5%              ig.8%   + 1.1%   38.1%  +   5-12   4223      10.22    2 +  1.1%
                                Don't Know                     21.6% +   4.2%    13.0%  +  3.3%    26.0%     17.4%   + 1.1%     8.4% +   2.92   212       11.2%    22+  1.425

                                1N.A.: Not Available
                                2The missing 2.5 percent is included in another question.          See survey
                                31ncludes "Leave the county" (34%). "Stay home" (2%) and "Motel" (4z).
                                41ncludes 20.6% + 1.5% who would leave before an evacuation order
                                SNot evacuating:    26.82 + 1.4%

                their results could be considered suspect.         In addition, the Southeast
                Florida study included a number of respondents not residing in vulnerable
                areas.

                All of the surveys found that more than 90% of residents in vulnerable
                areas would evacuate if ordered to do so. There were, however, differences
                among the studies as to the number who would leave immediately and those
                who would leave within a certain number of hours.        For those noting that
                their evacuation response time would be a certain number of hours, the
                average times ranged from a low of 1.4 hours in the Tampa Bay survey to a
                high of 3.97 hours in the Sanibel-Captiva study.

                In all seven surveys, vehicle usage ranged from 70-80%.             The highest
                vehicle usage rate was found in the East Central Florida inland area
                survey.    Its 82% usage rate can be attributed to the high number of one-
                vehicle households in the study area.

                The need for public transportation was below 5% in all but Southeast
                Florida.    In that study, it was found that 18.1% needed transportation.
                This high figure results from the fact that 16.1% of the surveyed
                households did not own an automobile.         The other major transportation
                factor--the need for special transportation assistance--was found to be
                less than 10% of the threatened population in each study area based on the
                behavioral surveys.

                Predictably, the demand for shelter was lowest among the more experienced
                and relatively wealthy populations on Sanibel and Captiva islands and along
                the East Central Florida coast.     These populations are experienced in the
                sense that the majority are both vulnerable and had either evacuated or
                come close to evacuating within the last few years.        It appears that many
                of these people rethink their evacuation plans annually as hurricanes head
                north out of the Caribbean, and they often make preplanned non-shelter
                arrangements.    This is reflected in the low percentage of respondents in
                those surveys identifying public shelters as their destinations as well as
                a low number indicating they do not know where they would go.

                A questionable aspect of the Sanibel survey is that 38% of the respondents
                think that they will find hotel/motel rooms.       A follow-up question asking
                if the respondents had made prior hurricane contingency reservations at
                some mainland hotel or motel showed that virtually nobody had made such
                reservations.    The implications of that finding are that some potential
                evacuees in all threatened areas may have planned destinations which will
                not be available at the time of an actual evacuation.

                The relationship of the results of the East Central Florida inland area
                survey to the observed responses in actual evacuations is extremely
                important.   Actual evacuation behavior provides one means of assessing the
                validity of the survey results.      One issue in which such a comparison is
                useful is shelter usage.      It was found that the highest observed shelter
                usage in the United States for a given county population was 36% during

                                                        65

                   Hurricane Carla.    This figure is well above the 18.3% shelter usage rate
                   found in the East Central Florida coastal area survey and may lend a
                   certain validity to that figure.

                   Furthermore, it was found that shelter use increases with the geographic
                   spread of devastation.     The wider the path of destruction, the more an
                   evacuee's friends and relatives are similarly impacted and, therefore,
                   cannot be of help.

                   In contrast to typical hurricanes, geographically compact hurricanes create
                   almost no demand for shelters.    Theoretically, a geographically compact
                   category 5 hurricane would create less shelter demand than a more
                   geographically diverse category 4 storm event.    In addition, the research
                   literature has also indicated that the public does not comprehend the fine
                   distinctions of hurricane advisories, orders and other such terms. People
                   frequently react to an advisory as if it were an order.

                   Although there is no specific research on how         quickly groups have
                   responded to evacuation orders, certain delay factors have appeared.
                   Specifically, residents will take the time after the order to seek
                   confirmation of the danger through additional sources, including neighbors,
                   friends and relatives.     These delays to the order appear to be neither
                   extended nor serious.

                   Finally, for those persons who say they will not evacuate, the only viable
                   alternative for public officials at this time is to further educate them.
                   There is no documented case in the country in which such persons have been
                   forcibly removed from their homes.     Political reasons, tradition, the
                   danger to enforcement officials, and the need for these officials in other
                   pursuits have precluded such action.

                   CONCLUSIONS

                   The behavioral survey for the East Central Florida coastal area addressed a
                   number of major issues and identified the probable behavioral tendencies of
                   the threatened population in the study area during a hurricane event.
                   Although the survey results have been discussed individually, the major
                   conclusions are summarized below.       Together with other research and
                   background data, these results were used to develop a workable evacuation
                   plan for the East Central Florida coastal area.

                     o  The vast majority of the households (92.2%) would respond either
                        imediately or rather promptly.to an evacuation order.

                     o  Of the owned vehicles, 30% would not be used during an evacuation,
                        thereby helping to reduce the traffic problem.

                                                        66

                  o  While   the    needs for general     (bus or taxi)      and    specialized
                     (handicapped) transportation service are a small percentage, these
                     demands could become a logistical problem involving thousands of
                     persons   within    an already strained      situation.     The    general
                     transportation service problem, however, can be resolved through
                     increased   education,    citizen cooperation and       advance    private
                     arrangements.

                  o  The indicated shelter space needs exceed 31% of the sample population.
                     This amount includes those who plan to use public shelters as well as
                     those not having an evacuation destination, and     the figure is most
                     likely higher than what will be experienced during a hurricane.

                  o  A clear minority of the population has experienced the direct hit of a
                     major hurricane, and some of the respondents have a misconception that
                     they were in a major hurricane.

                                                        67

                                               SHELTER ELEMENT

              INTRODUCTION

              The ability to shelter potential evacuees is a major objective of the
              disaster preparedness programs in Volusia and Brevard counties.            Ongoing
              efforts by the respective Red Cross chapters have resulted                in the
              designation of a substantial number of public buildings that may be       used as
              shelters in the event of a hurricane striking the region's coast.             This
              section will discuss the capability of this existing shelter inventory to
              absorb the projected number of evacuees expected to seek public shelter.
              Information developed as part of the study's Behavioral Survey has been
              used as a basis from which a comparison of shelter demand and shelter
              capacity may be made.

              The purpose in examining shelter preparedness is twofold.             First, the
              information provided through the different work tasks will give local
              disaster preparedness officials an indication of the adequacy of the
              existing shelters to accommodate the predicted level of demand.                 In
              addition, these activities will facilitate the pre-planning required of
              officials to ensure that adequate resources are available at the shelters
              for the duration of the evacuees' stay.       Second, the information generated
              has been utilized in the Hurricane Evacuation Study as part of the
              Transportation Modeling task to assist in the quantification of evacuation
              times.    To accurately determine evacuation times, the expected vehicle
              volume movement must be accurately simulated in the model.         This requires
              not only that the destinations of evacuees be known, but that the
              destinations be realistic in terms of their ability to accommodate the
              prescribed number of evacuees.      By evaluating the capacity of the shelter
              inventory, shelter assignment and calculation of the time required to
              travel from the residents' homes to the shelters could be accurately
              determined.

              SHELTER INVENTORY

              Detailed information on the existing designated shelter structures was
              gathered for this study from the local Red Cross chapters and the local
              school boards in Volusia and Brevard counties.

              Table 14 presents the existing inventory of shelter facilities for each of
              the coastal counties in the region.        The information provided in        this
              table fncludesshelter location, type of structure, shelter capacity, and
              shelter facilities.

              Although the names, addresses, and telephone numbers for the shelter
              managers were collected as part of this work effort, they are not included
              in the information provided.          Primarily, this is because personnel
              assignments are subject to frequent change and an out-of-date listing may

                                                         69

                                                                                                 TABLE 14

                                                                                             S H E L T E R      I.N V E N T 0 R Y
                   SHELTER (Address/Phone)               TYPE OF        CAPACITY            POWER                 WATER         WASTEWATER       FOOD CAPABILITY               VULNERABILITY
                                                        STRUCTURE                                                               FACILITY                                         ANALYSIS

                    VOLUSIA COUNTY -- EAST                                                                                                                               A-

                                                                                                                                                                                          C7
                                                                                       cl
                    Page I of 6.                                                       C.?

                 1.  Burns-Oak Hill Elementary        public school        468         x                      well            septic      yes                         15'     1
                                                                                                                            I tank
                     104 Ridge Road
                     Oak Hill
                     904/345-3453

                 2.  Campbell Center                  public school         1997       x    xI          x               x                 yes                         10,
                     601 So. Keech St.                                                                      I
                     Daytona Beach                                                                          I
                     904/253-1686

                 3.  Chisholm Center                   public school         687       x    x           x               x                 yes                           8'
                     577 Ronnoc Lane                                                                                                                                            Cat.
                     New Smyrna Beach                                                                                                                                             3
                     904/428-2475

                 4.  Daytona Beach Com. College         college             2500            X           X               x                 yes                         15'
                     500 Welch Blvd.
                     Daytona Beach                                                           f
                     (bldgs. 14, 16 25)

                 5.  Edgewater Elementary              public school         644       x    X   G       x               x                yes                          10,
                     550 So. Old Count Road                                                                                                                                      Cat.
                     Edgewater                                                                                                                                                    4

                            *Althouqh various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                             in qeneral, food will be brought Into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                                            C3

                                                                                                  NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                         recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                         local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                         regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                        TABLE 14 (cont.)

                                                                                                                       S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                      SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF            CAPACITY                    POWER                       WATER              WASTEWATER             FOOD CAPABILITY                        VULNERABILITY
                                                                      STRUCTURE                                                                                       FACILITY                                                        ANALYSIS

                          VOLUSIA COUNTY -- EAST

                          Page 2 of 6.
                                                                                                                                                            'g,

                    6.    Highlands-Hillcrest Elem.                 public schools           665               x      X                x                   X     I          Highlands,       1                         25'
                          323 Heineman Street                                                                                                                                      yes.
                          Daytona Beach                                                                                                                                     Hillcrest,
                          904/253-1891                                                                                                                                               no.
                          Note: Medical Shelter cnly.

                    7.    Holly Hill Elementary                     public school             839              x      X                x                   x                      yes                                  15'
                          1049.Ridgewood Avenue
                          Holly Hill
                          904/252-6271
                                                                                                                 f

                                                                                                               x      x                x                           septic         no
                    8.    Holly Hill Junior High                    public school             1319                                                                                                                     10,        1
                          1200 Center Street                                                                                                                       tank
                          Holly Hill
                          904/252-0421

                    9.    Hurst Elementary                          public school              767             x      x                x                           septic                                              10,
                          1340 Wright Street                                                                                                                       tank          yes
                          Holly Hill
                          904/255-3846

                                                                    meeting hall                100
                    10.   KrAghts of Lulumbus Hall                                                                                     x                  X     I                no                                    10,
                          509 No. Orange St.                                                                                                                                                                                          Cat.
                          New Smyrna Beach                                                                                                                                                                                             4
                          904/427-4211
                          vote: Medical Shetter Only.

                               -Althouqh various provisions have been made for providing food services,
                                in qeneral. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                                 Id,

                                                                                                                                    NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                              recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                              local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                              regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                        TABLE 14 (cont.)

                                                                                           S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y
                   SHELTER (Address/Phone)             TYPE OF        CAPACITY            POWER                 WATER          WASTEWATER
                                                      STRUCTURE                                                                FACILITY         FOOD CAPABILITY              VULNERABILITY
                                                                                                                                                                               ANALYSIS

                     VOLUSIA COUNTY -- EAST
                                                                                                  %                                                                    low
                                                                                                                                                                      lc@
                     Page 3 of 6.                                                    tv                                          qj
                                                                                                                                                                                   NO

                11.  Mainland Junior High           public school       640         x     X          x
                                                                                                                       x                 yes
                     215 Third Avenue                                                                                                                              25'
                     Daytona Beach                                                                                                                                             Cat.
                     904/255-4561                                                                                                                                                3

                12.  Mainland Senior High            public school       1354       x     x          x
                     125 So. Clyde Morris                                                                              x                 yes                       10,
                     Daytona Beach
                     904/252-0401

          N)
                13.  New Smyrna Jr. High             public school        881       x     x          x                 x                 yes
                     100 Live Oak Street                                                                                                                           10,
                     New Smyrna Beach                                                                                                                                         Cat.
                     904/428-5792                                                                                                                                              2

                14.1 North Ridgewood Elementary      public school        271       x     x          x                 x                 yes
                     365 No. Ridgewood Avenue                                                                                                                        56
                     Daytona Beach                                                                                                                                            Cat.
                     904/252-7322                                                                                                                                              2

                15.  Ormond Beach Elementary         public school        373       x     x I        x                 x                yes
                     100torbin Avenue                                                                                                                              151
                     Ormond Beach
                     904/677-3611

                           'Although various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                           in qeneral. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.

                                                                                                     NOTE:  Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                            recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                            local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area.      Discussions
                                                                                                            regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                  TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                                        S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y
                        SHELTER (Address/Phone)                         TYPE OF            CAPACITY                   POWER                        WATER              WASTEWATER       /FOOD CAPABILITY                           VULNERABILITY
                                                                       STRUCTURE                                                                                /      FACILITY                                                      ANALYSIS

                           VOLUSIA COUNTY -- EAST
                                                                                                                                                                          W
                                                                                                                                          q-,                                                                            Ad6
                           Page 4 of 6.
                                                                                                               IP/                                           (zp      1P

                    16.    Ormond Beach Junior High                  public school             1413            x      x               X    I                 x                    No                                   10,
                           151 Domicilio Avenue
                           Ormond Beach
                           904/677-7110

                    17.    Ormond Bch. ',f-. Citizens Ctr. meeting hall                        150                                    x                      x                    Yes                                  10,
                           West Granada Avenue
                           Ormond Beach
                           904/677-0311, Ext. 23n
                           L'ote: Medical Shelter onZ
           -4                                                                                                                                                                                                          10,
           W        Ia.    R. Patillo Elementary                     public school             680             x      x              x                       x                      Yes                                             Cat.
                           300 6th Street                                                                                                                                                                                        I
                           New Smyrna Beach                                                                                                                                                                                           2
                           904/427-1392                                                                                                                                                                                          1

                                                                                                                                     x                       x                      Yes                              101
                    1 g.   Port Orange Elementary                    public school             331             x      x                                                                                                             Cat.
                           402 Ounlawton Avenue                                                                                                                                                                                      -3
                           Port Orange
                           904/767-0113

                    20.    South Daytona Elementary                  public school             870             x      x              x                       x  I                   Yes                              10,
                           600 Elizabeth Place
                           South Daytona
                           )04/767-0221

                                  'Alth u'h various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                   in Q:nraj. food will be brought into the Shelters from outside sources.

                                                                                                                               NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a                          standard
                                                                                                                                 /411                                                                                                           'A

                                                                                                                                          recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                          local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                          regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                               TABLE 14 (Cont.

                                                                                                S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                     SHELTER (Address/Phone)               TYPE OF        CAPACITY             POWER                 WATER          14ASTEWATER                                    VULNERABILITY
                                                          STRUCTURE                                                                 FACILITY     /FOOD CAPABILITY                    ANALYSIS
                                                                                                                                                                                               -41b
                      VOLUSIA COUNTY -- EAST

                                                                                                                                                                                            hp
                                                                                                                                                                            All
                      Page 5 of 6.

                  21.   South Ridgewood Elementary       public school        214       x      x           x                X                 Yes                         10,
                        731 S . Ridgewood Avenue                                                                                                                                     Cat.
                        Daytona Beach
                        904/252-0592                                                                                                                                                   2

                  22.   Spruce Creek Elementary          public school        368       x      X           x                x                 Yes                         25'
                        642 Taylor Road
                        Port Orange
                        904/788-1341

                  23.   Spruce Creek  Senior High        public school      2828        x      x           x                X                 No                          25,
                        1484 Taylor Road
                        Port Orange
                        904/761-0220

                  24.   Tomoka Elementary                public school      1133                           X                x                 Yes                        251
                        R.F.D. I Old Tomoka Road
                        Ormond Beach
                        904/677-3822

                  25.   Turie T. Small Elementary        public school,      887        X      X           x                x                 No                          10,
                        300 South Street
                        Daytona Beach
                        904  /252-4738

                                                                                                                                       A
                                                                                                                        /J"

                          .@jthouqh various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                            n qenera). food will be brought into the shelter% from outside sources.

                                                                                                     NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                             recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                             local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                             regarding the availabi-lity of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                            TABLE 14 (cont.

                                                                                                                            S H E L T E R             I N V E N T 0 R Y

                                                                                                                                                                           WASTEWATER                                                     VULNERABILITY
                         SHELTM(Address/Phone)                             TYPE OF            CAPACITY                   POWER                          WATER                                     FOOD CAPABILITY
                                                                         STRUCTURE                                                                                   /      FACILITY                                                         ANALYSIS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4,
                                                                                                                                                Q1'
                      VOLUSIA COUNTY -- EAST

                                                                                                                        ,Zq     4,
                                                                                                                             . /'g
                      Page 6 of 6.

                     26.    West Sid    .e Elementary                  public school            1361              x      x               x                       X                        Yes                                28'
                            1210 Jimmy Ann Drive
                            Daytona Beach
                            904/253-1671

          Ln

                                                         provisions have been made for tproviding food services.

                                                                                                                                                           hel ter
                                        ;n gener 1. food Wi I I be brought Into the shel ers from outside sources.                              NOTE:      S          capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a                     standard
                                                                                                                                                         4:@

                                                                                                                                                           recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                                           local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                                           regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                          TABLE 14

                                                                                                                        S H E L T E R             I N V E N T 0 R Y
                        SHELTER (Address/Phone)                         TYPE OF            CAPACITY                     POWER                      WATER             WASTEWATER              FOOD CAPABILITY                       VULNER@BILITY
                                                                       STRUCTURE                                                                                        FACILITY                                                      ANALYSIS

                                                                                                                            A,
                           VOLUSIA COUNTY          WEST

                                                                                                                        Q                                                                                                   Aq,
                           Page.1   of 3.                                                                                                                                                                 -b
                                                                                                                                                                                                          10

                     1.    Boston   Avenue                           public school             516           x          X            x                      x                      Yes       1                           85'
                           340 No. Boston Avenue
                           DeLand
                           904/734-2060

                     2.    DeLand Senior High                        public school           1387            x          x            x                      x                      Yes                                   80-
                           800 No. Hill Avenue
                           DeLand
                           904/734-1100

            --j                                                                                                         X                                   x                                                            850
                     3.    Deltona Jr.     High                      public school           1500            x                       x                                             Yes
                           250 Enterprise      Road
                           Deltona
                           904/574-6626

                     4.    Enterprise Elementary                     public school             1090          X          X            x                      x                      Yes                                25'
                           211 Main Street
                           Enterprise
                           904/668-8641

                     5.    Fla. Lutheran Retirement Ctr.             meeting hall               200          x          x            x                      X                      Yes                                80,
                           431 No. Kansas Avenue
                           DeLand
                           904/734-0603
                           ;ote: Medical Shelter only.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           @7
                                     I thau gh various provisions have oeen nade for providing food services.
                                     n general. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                                   WATER

                                                                                                                                                     b

                                                                                                                                 NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a                          standard
                                                                                                                                           recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized                      by the
                                                                                                                                           local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                           regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                        TABLE 14 (Cont.

                                                                                                                    S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                                                                                                                                                                  WASTEWATER                                                  VULNERABILITY
                     SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF           CAPACITY                  POWER                        WATER                FACILITY            FOOD CAPABILITY                          ANALYSIS
                                                                    STRUCTURE

                                                                                                                                          'A@
                     VOLUSIA COUNTY -- WEST

                                                                                                                    Q
                     Page 2 of 3.                                                                            C7

                  6.   Long Lake Helen Elementary                 public school            187             x      X                x                            septic (satellite        feeding)                 65'             - - -
                                                                                                                                                                tank
                       307 South Lakeview Drive
                       Lake Helen
                       904/228-2208

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  65'
                  7.   Louise S. McInnis                          public school            544             x      x                       well                 packagE        yes
                       Highway 17                                                                                                                                plant
                       DeLeon Springs
                       904/985-4812

           j      8.   George Marks      Elementary               public school            587             x      x                x                           septic         yes                                 75'
                       1000 No. Garfield Avenue                                                                                                                tank
                       DeLand
                       904/734-0401                                                                                                    f

                  9.   orange City Elementary                     public school            451             x      x                x                           septic         yes                                 65'              - - -
                       555 East University Avenue                                                                                                              tank
                       Orange City
                       904/775-3090

                                                                                                                                          well                 septic         yes                                 55'
                  10. Seville Elementary                          public school              375           x      x
                                                                                                                                                               tank
                       Highway 17
                       Seville
                       904/749-2292

                                  -Although various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                    in general, food will be brought into the Shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                   NOTE:     Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                             recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                             local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area.                      Discussions
                                                                                                                                             regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                          TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                                        S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y
                        SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF            CAPACITY                  POWER                         WATER             WASTEWATER              FOOD CAPABI                           VULNERABILITY
                                                                        STRUCTURE                                                                                       FACILITY                             LITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ANALYSIS

                            VOLUSIA COUNTY -- WEST                                                                                                      cl                                                                                          -k
                                                                                                                          0

                            Page 3 of 3.
                                                                                                                 C7
                                                                                                                c;'                                                                                                     NIZ,                  .0 N
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0                                 NO
                                                                                                                                        x                          ;septic          yes
                     I].    Southwestern     Center                   public school               933           x     x                                                                                                  651
                            605 W. New Hampshire                                                                                                                   tank
                            DeLand
                            904/734-7700

                     12.    Starke Elementary                         public school               425           x     X                 x                   x                      yes                                   351
                            730 So. Parson Street
                            DeLand
                            904/734-6700
            00       13.    T. DeWitt Taylor High                      public school              300           x     x                       well                 package         yes                                   651
                            100 E. Washington Avenue                                                                                                                plant
                            Pierson
                            904/749-2223

                     14.    Woodward Avenue                           public school              1120           x     x                 x                          'Package        yes                                   651
                            1201 So. Woodward Ave.                                                                                                                  plant,
                            DeLand
                            904/734-6176
                                                                                                                                                                            4
                                                                                                                                                                            1-- %j
                                                                                                                                                                            @1
                                                                                                                                                                                       C

                                    *Although various provisions have been made for providing food services,
                                     in general, food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources
                                                                                                                                   NOTE:    Shelter capacity was based on 40               sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                            recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                            local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                            regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                        TABLE 14 (Cont.

                                                                                                                        S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y
                        SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF            CAPACITY                  POWER                        WATER              WASTEWATER        /FOOD CAPABILITY                           VULNERABILITY
                                                                        STRUCTURE                                                                                      FACILITY                                                       ANALYSIS

                           BREVARD COUNTY--North                                                                          (0                                                                                               A.

                                                                                                                                                    A
                           Page I of 3.                                                                                                                                                                   It>
                                                                                                                                                                                                       If                                   ae
                                                                                                               r?

                      1.   Apollo Elementary                         public school              350                   X                X    I                X                       Yes                               25'        1
                           3300 Knox McRae Drive
                           Titusville
                           305/267-7890

                      2.   Astronaut High                            public school              1000                  X  I             X                     X                       Yes                               20'
                           SOO War Eagle Blvd.
                           Titusville
                           305/267-5500

            _j

                      3.   Coquina Elementary                        public school              400                   X                X                     X                      Yes                                20'
                           850 Knox McRae Drive
                           Titusville                                                                                                       f
                           305/267-7014

                      4.   Imperial Estates Elementary               public school              300                   X                X                     X                    No                                   25'
                           5525 Kathy Drive
                           Titusville
                           305/267-1773

                      5.   Jackson Middle                            public school              450                   X                X                     X                    Yes                                  25'
                           1515 Knox McRae Drive
                              itusville
                           ,05/269-1812
                                                                                                                                                                     =A

                                          -Although various provisions have been made for providing food services,
                                            in general, food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                       NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40                 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                               recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                               local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                               regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                 TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                  S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                    SHELTER (Address/Phone)                 TYPE OF        CAPACITY              POWER                   WATER         WASTEWATER                                         VULNERABILITY
                                                           STRUCTURE                                                                     FACILITY     /FOOD CAPABILITY                      ANALYSIS
                                                                                                   /I_N                                   /   .4                 /f                            / /     b
                    BREVARD COUNTY--North
                                                                                                                                     IZ,
                    Page 2 of 3.                                                                                 _4@1    4A
                                                                                            C1

                   6.  Madison Middle                   public school          416               X            x                X                   No                           30'
                       3375 Dairy Road
                       Titusville
                       305/267-4077

                                                                                                 X                                                                              20'
                   7.  Mims  Elementary                 public school          300                                  well             pckage       Yes
                       2582  U.S. Highway I                                                                                          plant
                       Mims
           00          305/267-3344
           CD      8.  Oak Park Elementary               public school         350               x            x               x                   Yes                           201
                       3395 Dairy Road
                       Titusville
                       305/269-3252

                    9. Pinewood Elementary               public school         300               x                  well            lpckage.      No                            201
                       3654 Lionel Road                                                                                             plant
                       Mims
                       305/269-4530

                   10. Riverview Elementary              public school         400               X            x               x                  No                             251
                       3000 Jolly St.
                       Titusville
                       305/269-2325

                                    *Al though various provisim have been made for providing food services,
                                          41                    n      S
                                                                                                                                                                                                      ;7--

                                      in gener 1. food will be brought I to the heiters from outside sources.
                                                                                                            NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                    recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                    local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                    regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                      TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                                       S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                                                                                                                                                                    WASTEWATER                                                    VULNERABILITY
                      SHELTER (Address/Phone)                           TYPE OF           CAPACITY                  POWER                         WATER                                     ODD CAPABILITY
                                                                      STRUCTURE                                                                                       FACILITY        /F                                            ANALYSIS

                        BREVARD COUNTY--North

                        Page 3 of 3.

                                                                                                                                                                 T
                    11.    South Lake       Elementary             public school              375                   X                x                     X     I              Yes                                 30'              - - -
                           3755 Garden St.
                           Titusville
                           305/269-1022

                    12.    Titusville High                         public school              900                   X                x                   x                      Yes                                 301             Cat.
                           1850 So. Washington Ave.                                                                                                                                                                                  3
                           Titusville
                           305/269-3561
           00

                    13.    Brevard Community College                  college                 270                  x     E &                                                    Yes                                 251
                               North Campus                                                                             igen-
                           1111 No. Washington Ave.                                                                      era-
                                                                                                                         tor.
                           Titusville
                           305/269-5664

                    14.    First Presbyterian Church                     church               186                  x                 x                   x                      Yes                                 351
                                            of Titusville
                           1300 Golfview Drive
                           Titusville
                           305/267-2745

                                     *Although various provisions have been nmde for providing food services.
                                      'n general. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.

                                                                                                                                   NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40                   sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                             recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                             local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                             regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                 TABLE 14 (cont.

                                                                                                                      S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                      SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF            CAPACITY                  POWER                        WATER             WASTEWATER             FOOD CAPABILITY                       VULNERABILITY
                                                                      STRUCTURE                                                                                      FACILITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ANALYSIS

                        BREVARD COUNTY--Central                                                                                           4@       'd                    4ti
                                                                                                                                                  Q111
                                                                                                                      4                                                                                                                        Cl
                                                                                                                            (b
                        Page 1 of 4.

                    1.  Hans Christian Andersen Elem.               public school              350                  X               x                       x                     No                                25'
                        3011 South Fiske Blvd.
                        Rockledge'
                        305/636-5610                                                                                   1

                    2.  Cambridge Elementary                        public school              350                  x               x                       x                   Yes                                 251
                        2000 Cambridge Drive
                        Cocoa
                        305/636-3443

                                                                                                                                    X
                    3.  Clearlake Middle                            public school              350                  x                                       x                     No                                201
                        1225 Clearlake Rd.
                        Cocoa
                        305/636-4021

                    4.  Cocoa High                                    p9blic school            900                  x               x                       x                   Yes                                 201
                        2000 Tiger Trail
                        Cocoa
                        305/632-5300

                                                                                                                                                                        j
                    5.  Fairglen Elementary                         public school              350                  x               x                         jpkage.           Yes                                 251
                                                                                                                                                                plant
                        '01 Indian Trail
                        Cocoa
                        205/631-1993

                                         "Altho h various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                             U:ra    food will be brought into the shelters from Outside sources.
                                         in ge.
                                                                                                                                      NOTE:      Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                                                     AST'WATE1                                                   VU1
                                                                                                                                                                      ACI    T,
                                                                                                                                                                                                            TY            ZL
                                                                                                                                                                                                            74@

                                                                                                                                                 recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                                 local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area.                      Discussions
                                                                                                                                                 regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                  TABLE -14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                                      S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                     SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF            CAPACITY                     POWER                      WATER              WASTEWATER             FOOD CAPABILITY                       VULNERABILITY
                                                                     STRUCTURE                                                                                       FACILITY                                                       ANALYSIS

                       BREVARD COUNTY--Central

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       A
                       Page 2 of 4.

                  6.   Golfview Elementary                          public school            350                      X            x                      X                        No                                 25'
                       1530 So. Fiske Blvd.
                       Rockledge
                       305/632-3880

                                                                    public school            500                      xI                                  x                       Yes                                 25'
                  7.   Kennedy Middle
                       2100 So. Fiske      Blvd.
                       Rockledoe
                       305/632-9500                                                                             1
           00

                                                                    public school            550                      x                                                                                               20'
                  8.   Poinsett Middle
                       501 Poinsett Drive
                       Cocoa
                       305/6 36-4982

                                                                                                                      x            x                      x                       Yes                                 25'
                  9.   Pineda Elementary                             public school           500                       1
                       905 Pineda St.
                       Cocoa
                       305/636-3545

                                                                                                                                                                                  Yes                                 25'
                10. Rockledqe High                                  public     school        900                      x             x                     x
                       220 Rockledge Ave.
                       Rockledge
                       305/636-3711

                                   -Althouqh various Provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                    :n genera 1, food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        lip

                                                                                                                                   NOTE:     Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                             recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                             local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area.                       Discussions
                                                                                                                                             regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                       TABLE 14 (Cont,)

                                                                                                                          S H E L T E R            I N V E N T 0 R Y
                                                                         TYPE OF                                                                                       WASTEWATER                                                    VULNERABILITY
                       SHELTER (Address/Phone)                                              CAPACITY                   POWER                        WATER                                     FOOD CAPABILITY
                                                                       STRUCTURE                                                                                         FACILITY                                                       ANAL SIS
                                                                                                                          /I:@    /                /  / A@                 /   *1                                                                    b
                                                                                                                                              Aj
                       BREVARD COUNTY--Central

                       Page 3 of 4.
                                                                                                                                                                                                         IR",
                   11.  Saturn Elementary                           public school               400                    X               X                     X                      Yes       1                         15'        1
                        890 Range Road
                        Cocoa
                        305/632-6161

                   12.  Brevard Community College--                       college              1070                    X  I  E        X                                               No                                121
                           Central Campus                                                                                         (lift
                        1519 Clearlake Road                                                                                       station
                        Cocoa                                                                                                     required)
                        305/632-1111, ext. 304/305
           00
           4@1-    13.  Cocoa Presbyterian Church                         church                355                    X              X                                             Yes                                201
                        1404 Dixon Blvd.                                                                                  I
                        Cocoa
                        305/636-9602

                   14.  First Baptist Church of                           church                350                    X                                    X                       Yes                               251              - - -
                                                 Rockledge
                        1810 Cedar Street
                        Rockledge
                        305/636-1493

                   15. First United Methodist Church                       church                166                   X                                          ISeptic           Yes                               151             Cat.
                                             of Cocoa                                                                                                                tanks
                        825 Forrest Avenue                                                                                                                          (3)      1                                                          3
                        Cocoa
                        305/636-14811

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Z7@
                                            -Although various Provisions have been iude   for providing food services.
                                             in general. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                             NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                                       recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                                       local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                                                       regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                          TABLE 14       (Cont.)

                                                                                          S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                                                      TYPE OF                           PO',..'ER             WATER         WASTEWATER        FOOD CAPABILITY              VULNERABILITY
                 SHELTER (Address/Phone)             STRUCTURE      CAPACITY                                                  FACILITY                                       ANALYSIS

                  BREVARD COUNTY--Central                                                                                 R,

                  Page 4 of 4.                                                            c,  q,-

                                                                                                                          T
              16.  Hope United Church of Christ         church         133              X                            X    I           Yes     1                   15'
                   2555 So. Fiske Blvd.
                   Rockledge
                   305/636-0250

               17. Mt. Moriah AME Church--Cocoa         church          300             X  I  E                      x                Yes                         20'
                   305 Magnolia
                   Cocoa
                   305/636-0025
         00

                                                                                                                                                                 20'
               18. St. Mary's Church                    church          100             x                            X    I           Yes
                   1132 So. Seminole Drive
                   Rockledge
                   305/636-6834

                             'Although various provisions have been rude for providing food services.
                               in general, food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                         NOTE: Shelter capacity was based     on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                                                     c

                                                                                                                 recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                 local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                 regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                   TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                       S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                    SHELTER (Address/Phone)                  TYPE OF         CAPACITY              POWER                     WATER         WASTEWATER                                          VULNERABILITY
                                                            STRUCTURE                                                                         FACILITY         FOOD CAPABILITY                    ANALYSIS

                    BREVARD COUNTY--South
                                                                                                       C,
                    Page I of 7.
                                                                                                           A.
                                                                                                       Koo a,                                                                                              Al

                  1.   Central Jr. High                    pyblic school        575               X              x                  x   I             Yes
                       250 West Brevard Drive
                       Melbourne                                                                                                                                                     20'            - - -
                       305/254-4875

                  2.   Creel Elementary                    public school        400                    gen-                                           Yes
                       1566 Palmwood Drive                                                             era-
                       Melbourne                                                                       Itor.                                                                         201
                       305/259-3233
            00
            cn

                  3.   Croton Elementary                   public school        350                    nen       x                  X                 Yes                            201
                       144� Croton Road                                                                era-
                       Melbourne                                                                       tor.
                       305/259-3818

                  4.   Eau Gallie High                     public school        900                    gen-      x                  X                 Yes                            25,
                       1400 Comodore Blvd.                                                             lera-
                       Melbourne                                                                       tor.
                       305/254-8421

                  5.   Harbor City Elementary              public school        350                    (gen-     x                  x                 Yes
                       1377 Sarno Road                                                                 era-                                                                         20'
                       Melbourne                                                                       Itor.
                       ,305/254-5534

                                   Wthough various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                     'n general. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                           WAS TEWAT/ER
                                                                                                                                              FACILITY

                                                                                                                             AQ,

                                                                                                                    NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                             recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                             local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                             regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                      TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                                      S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                    SHELTER (Address/Phone)                          TYPE OF
                                                                                        CAPACITY                  POWER                        WATER               WASTEWATER                                                   VULNERABILITY
                                                                   STRUCTURE                                                                                                        /FOOD CAPABILITY
                                                                                                                                                                   FACILITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ANALYSIS

                      BREVARD COUNTY--South
                      Page 2 of 7.                                                                                                                                                                                      A
                                                                                                                                       4@        q,
                                                                                                           11P/ 'zi" '/4"

                  6.   Johnson Jr. High                          public school               550                      Igen-         x                     X                     Yes                                15,
                       2155 Croton Road                                                                               era-              I
                       Melbourne                                                                                      itor.
                       305/259-3338

                  7.   Meadowlane Elementary                     public school               300               f  x                 x                     x                     No                                 20'
                       Minton Road
                       West Melbourne
                       (305/723-6354
         00

                  8.   Melbourne High                            public school              1000                  x                 x                     x   I                 Yes
                       74 Bulldog Blvd.                                                                                                                                                                            25'
                       Melbourne
                       305/723-4151

                  9.   Palm Bay Elementary                       public school               350                  x                 x                     X   I                 Yes
                       515 Allamanda Rd. S.E.                                                                         1                                                                                            251              - - -
                       Palm Bay
                       305/723-1055

                 10.   Palm Bay High                              public school              925
                       I Pirate Lane                                                                              x                 x                     x                     Yes                                251
                                                                                                               f
                       'Ielbourne                                                                                                      I
                       705/723-3031

                                 -@Ithotjqh Ydrious provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                   inqenerdl, food will be brought Into the shelters from outside sources.

                                                                                                                                         NOTE:     Shelter capacity was based             on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                                   recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                                   local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions-
                                                                                                                                                   regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                                         TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                                                      S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                                                                       TYPE OF                                                                                   WASTEWATER
                      SHELTER (Address/Phone)                        STRUCTURE           CAPACITY                 POWER                        WATER                FACILITY            FOOD CAPABILITY                       VULNERABILITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ANALYSIS

                                                                                                                                                              'k,                                                                          A@'
                        BREVARD COUNTY--South                                                                                                                                       ell
                        Page 3 of 7.                                                                                                                                                                                                    b

                     11.   Roy Allen Elementary                    public school            300                       gen-          X                    x                    No                                  25'
                           2601 Fountainhead Blvd.                                                                    jera-
                           Melbourne                                                                                  tor.
                           305/254-4496                                                                               1

                     12.   Saba] Elementary                        public school            325                       Igen-         x                  x                      Yes                                 251
                           1400 Wickham Road                                                                          era-
                           Melbourne                                                                                  ltor.
                           305/254-7261
             03                                                                                                       1
             00

                     13.   Sherwood Elementary                     public school        ' 325                         gen-          x                  x                      Yes                                 201
                           900 Post Road                                                                              era-
                           Melbourne                                                                                  tor.
                           305/254-6424                                                                               1

                     14-.  Stone Middle                            public school            650                   x                 x                  x                      Yes                                 251            - - -
                           1101 East University Blvd.
                           Melbourne
                           305/723-0741

                     15.   Uni.versity Park Elementary             public school            300                   X                 x                  X    I                 Yes                                 151
                           500 W. University Blvd.
                           11elbourne
                           305/723-2566

                                    'AlthOUqh Various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                            a
                                     ;n gen ral, food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 /7_k_A@b

                                                                                                                                    NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                            recommended by the American Red cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                                            local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area.                     Discussions
                                                                                                                                            regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                                       TABLE 14. (Cont.

                                                                                                 S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y

                SHELTER (Address/Phone)                  TYPE OF        CAPACITY                 POWER                WATER            WASTEWATER          00 CAPABILITY                VULNERABILITY
                                                        STRUCTURE                                                                      FACILITY      /FO                                   A
                                                                                                                                                                                            NALYSIS
                                                                                                 If                    If                                       If
                  BREVARD COUNTY--South                                                                                            "   /                                NA
                                                                                                 If                  If               If
                                                                                                 If
                                                                                                 "Z@ If                Qf
                  Page 4 of 7.                                                                                                   4.1-15, If                                               If

              16.   Brevard Community College             college           2000                 XIgen-                                           Yes    1                     20'
                       South Campus                                                               era-
                    3865 N. Wickham Road                                                          tor.
                    Melbourne
                    305/254-0305, ext. 203

              17.   Florida Institute of                  college           250                  XIE                                              No                           15'
                                    Technology
                    Country Club & University
                                      Park Blvd.
        00          Melbourne
                    305/723-3701
              18.   Bethel Assembly of Good                church           125                  X                                  septic        Yes                          25'
                    26 West Fee Avenue                                                                                              tank
                    Melbourne
                    305/727-2606

              19.   Bowe Gardens Baptist                   church           166                  Xgen-                       x                    Yes
                                                                                                 iera-                                                                         20'
                    2700 Sarno Road
                    Melbourne                                                                     tor.
                    305/254-5622

              20.   First Church   of the Nazarene         church           110                  x        x                      I septic         Yes                          20'
                                                                                                                                    tank
                    L-745 So. Babcock St.
                    Melbourne

                                   0
                                in ge ral. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                               *Alth 01h various provisions have been made for providing food services,

                                                                                                             NOTE:   Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                       "'e

                                                                                                                     recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                     local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area.           Discussions
                                                                                                                     regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                               TABLE 14 (Cont.)

                                                                                               S H E L T E R I N V E N T 0 R Y
                 SHELTER (Address/Phone)                TYPE OF        CAPACITY            POWER                   WATER         WASTEWATER         FOOD CAPABILITY               VULNERABILITY
                                                       STRUCTURE                                                                   FACILITY                                         ANALYSIS
                                                                                                                                    /                     / /
                                                                                                              'k,                      Q_1
                   BREVARD COUNTY--South

                   Page 5 of 7.                                                                Q   Q-1

                                                        church            575                                             x                  Yes    1                   201
                21.  First United Methodist of
                                       Melbourne
                     110 E. New Haven Avenue
                     Melbourne
                     305/723-6761

                                                        church            ]Do              X   I              well             septic        No                         251
                22.  Free Will Baptist                                                                                          tanks
                     938 Lytton Road                                                                                             (2)
                     Melbourne
                     305/254-7282

                23.  Harbor City Baptist                 church            287             x   gen-     x               x                   Yes                         25'          Cat.
                     2740 No. Pineapple                                                        lera-                                                                                  2
                     Melbourne                                                                 tor.
                     305/494-4774                                                              1

                24.  Palm Bay United Methodist           church            133             X    E       x               x                   Yes                         251
                     702 S.E. Point Malabar Blvd.
                     Palm Bay
                     305/727-8651

                                      ugh various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                                  in :neral. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                         NOTE:   Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a.standard
                                                                                                                 recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                 local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                 regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                            TABLE.14 (Cont.)

                                                                                         S H E L T E R       I N V E N T 0 R Y
                                                                                                                            WASTEWATER   /FOOD CAP                        VULNERABILITY
                 SHELTER (Address/Phone)              TYPE OF      CAPACITY            POWER                  WATER          FACILITY                ABILITY                 ANALYSIS
                                                     STRUCTURE                  I
                                                                                                               /

                 BREVARD COUNTY--South
                                                                                                                       cti
                 Page 6 of 7.

              25.  St. Paul's United Methodist       church           166        x     I   E I      x                X  I             Yes    1                  20'      1   Cat.
                                                                                          gen-                                                                                3
                   1591 Highland Avenue
                   Melbourne                                                              era-
                   305/254-6363                                                           Itor.
                                                                               -L         I
              26.  United Church of Christ            church          100              X  I         x   I            x                Yes                       25'          Cat.
                   U.S. 1 & Strawbridge Ave.                                              I             1                                                                     3
                   Melbourne                                                                            I
                   305/723-3575                                                           1

              27.  Wesley United Methodist            church          125              x  I                X             septic       Yes                       20'
                   50 Minton Road                                                                                         tank
                   West Melbourne
                   305/727-7585

              28.  Our Lady of Lourdes              church/           150                           x                x                                          25'
                   1710 So. Hickory Street              hospital
                   Melbourne
                   305/723-3636
                 ,Vo t e :for dialysis (kidney
                     ,nachine)patients only.                          827       1      x            x                x               Yes                        20'
              29. Palm Bay Recreation Center        recreation
                   Port Malabar Blvd.                    center
                   Palm Bay
                   305/727-7100

                             -Although various provisions have been made for providing food services.
                             m general. food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                      NOTE:   Shelter capacity was based oil 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                                                                                      b

                                                                                                              recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                              local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                              regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

                                                                                            TABLE -14 (Co6t.)

                                                                                             S H E L T E R         N V E N T 0 R Y

                   SHELTER (Address/Phone)               TYPE OF       CAPACITY            POWER                  WATER          WASTEWATER                                     VULNERABILITY
                                                        STRUCTURE                                                                 FACILITY     / FOOD CAPABILITY                   ANALYSIS

                    BREVARD COUNTY--South

                    Page 7 of 7.
                                                                                       C_j   Cj

                  30.  Trinity Towers                 senior              170               x            x               x                  Yes                         15'
                       650 E. Strawbridge Ave.          citizens
                       Melbourne                             center
                       305/723-7512'
                 Note: For handicapped only.

                                                                                                                                                                       20.
                  31.  Veterans of Foreign Wars       veterans            III        x     x  I                 x             septic
                       Post #4206                       organization                                                            tank
                       3201 So. Dairy Road
                       Melbourne
                       305/724-4121
                                                                                                                                                              9"
                                                                                                                                                                        'b'
                                                                                                                                                                      4;

                          .@'Althouqh various provisions have been made for providing food services,
                            in general, food will be brought into the shelters from outside sources.
                                                                                                          NOTE: Shelter capacity was based on 40 sq. ft./person, a standard
                                                                                                                  recommended by the American Red Cross and utilized by the
                                                                                                                  local Red Cross chapters within the Study Area. Discussions
                                                                                                                  regarding the availability of capacity reflect this standard.

              be confusing in a future emergency. Secondly, as the purpose of this study
              was to provide an overall framework for plan development, the designation
              of specific operational manpower was beyond the scope of this work effort.

              SHELTER/MEDICAL FACILITY SURGE ANALYSIS

              To determine the availability of shelter/medical facilities for use during
              a hurricane, a surge analysis was completed.      Specifically, the intent of
              the analysis was to determine under what circumstances which facilities are
              subject to hurricane-induced storm surge and should not be used.             In
              addition, medical and group homes subject to flooding were identified.
              Since residents of medical facilities and group homes suffer from a lack of
              mobility and may need continuous medical attention, their potential for
              special needs during an evacuation must be identified.

              The methodology used in determining the flooding potential of public
              shelters within the study area consisted of comparing the geographic
              location of a particular structure to the predicted level of storm surge
              inundation as identified in the Vulnerability Analysis.          First, each
              structure was pinpointed on a set of vulnerability area maps, which have
              been included in the appendices.       These maps identify each of the 63
              shelters in Brevard County and 26 coastal shelters in Volusia County.       The
              site location numbers found on the vulnerability area maps correspond to
              the public shelter number in Table .15. Fourteen additional Volusia County
              shelters are located considerably inland and, consequently, were not
              considered in the surge vulnerability analysis.      Each of the 89 shelters
              was then identified in regard to its potential for flooding from various
              categories of storms.

              The surge vulnerability analysis of public shelters within the two-county
              study area identified five facilities vulnerable to a category 1-2 storm
              and 9 facilities vulnerable in a category 3-5 storm.         Based on these
              determinations, recommendations to existing sheltering plans were forwarded
              to local disaster preparedness officials.

              The methodology used in determining the feasibility of public shelters was
              also used in analyzing group homes, hospitals and nursing homes. The surge
              vulnerability analysis on health care facilities, however, was conducted in
              regard to the special evacuation needs of the elderly/disabled; namely,
              transportation logistics and medical supervision. Facilities determined to
              be susceptible to hurrica 'ne-generated storm surge must develop operational
              plans for evacuating their patients/residents. Since there will be related
              demands for trained personnel and proper medical equipment, it is suggested
              that vulnerable health care facilities (risk facilities) evacuate to
              similar facilities which are not prone to storm surge inundation (host
              facilities).   Thus, those health care facilities determined not to be
              located in vulnerable areas must also develop disaster preparedness plans,
              since they will be called on to accommodate displaced elderly and disabled
              evacuees.

                                                      93

                                                                                  TABLE 15

                                                                        SURGE VULNERABILITY ANA?.YSIS                      pige 1.   of 1. 5-

                                    INSTITUTION (address/phone)                                @LOOU HAZARD ANALNSIS

                                         BREVARD COUNTV                       Cate-    Cate-    Cate-      Cat  -   Cite-     Not vulnerable
                                                                             gory I gory 2     gory  3   gory 4 gory 5           to Surge

                                 (G,Eoup Homez)

                                 1. Asbury Arms Apartments                                                                         YX
                                    1430 Dixon Blvd.
                                    Cocoa
                                    (305) 632-4943

                                 2. Bethesda Baptist   Retirement Home                                                             XX
                                    748 Fordham Road
                                    Palm Bay
                                    (305) 723-3288

                                 3. Brevard Hotel                              XX
                                    112 Indian River Drive
                                    Cocoa
                                    (305) 636-1411

                                 4. Titusville Tower                                              XX
                                    1405 Indian River Avenue
                                    Titusville
                                    (305) 269-2810

                                 5. Tompkins Adult  Congregate Home
                                    100 Lee Road
                                    West Melbourne
                                    (305) 724-4950

                                 6. Trinity Towers East
                                    700 East Strawbridge Avenue
                                    Melbourne
                                    (305) 723-7511

                                 7. Trinity Towers South                                                                         XX
                                    New Haven Drive
                                    Mel bourne
                                    (305) 723-8620

                                 8. Trinity Towers West                                                                          XX
                                    650 East Strawbridge Avenue
                                    Melbourne
                                    (305) 723-7512

                                 9. Vereene's Love  & Care Home                                                                  XX
                                    1304 East Gibbs Street
                                    Melbourne
                                    (305) 727-0708

                                 (Ho6pi.taes)

                             10. Cape Canaveral Hospital                      XX
                                    701 West Cocoa Beach Causeway
                                    Cocoa Beach
                                    (305) 783-7721

                                                                                       94

                                                                         TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                   SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                      page _2 or 15

                              INSTITUTION (address/phone)                                 FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                              BREVARD COUNTV (continued)                 Cate-    Cat e-   Cate-     Cate-    Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                                                        gory I gory 2 gory 3        gory 4 gory 5         to Surge

                           (Hoapi"--continued)
                           11.   James H. Holmes Regional Med. Ctr.                                                          xx
                                 1350 So. Hickory Street
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 727-7000

                           12.   Jess Parish Memorial Hospital                                                               xx
                                 751 No. Washington Avenue
                                 Titusville
                                 (305) 268-6111

                           13.   Wuestoff Memorial Hospital                                                                  xx
                                 110 Longwood Avenue
                                 Rockledge
                                 (305) 636-2211

                           (Nuising Hoinez)

                           14.   Adare Medical Center                                                                        xx
                                 1775 Huntington Lane
                                 Rockledge
                                 (305) 632-7341

                           15.   Carnegie Gardens Nursing Home                                                               xx
                                 1415 So. Hickory Street
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 723-1321

                           16.   Florida Convalescent Home, Inc.
                                 516 East Sheridan Road
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 727-0984

                           17.   Medic-Home Health Ctr. of Melbourn                                                          xx
                                 1420 So. Oak Street
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 723-3215

                           18.   Merritt Manor Nursing Home                                  xx
                                 125 Alma Boulevard
                                 Merritt Island
                                 (305) 453-0202

                           19.   Sunny Pines Convalescent Ctr.,Inc.                                                          xx
                                 587 Barton Boulevard
                                 Rockledge
                                 (305) 632-6300

                           20.   Titusville Nursing & Convalesc.Ctr.                                                         xx
                                 1705 Jess Parish Court
                                 Titusville
                                 (305) 269-5720

                                                                                95

                                                                        TABLE 15      Con  t.)
                                                                    SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                 page 1--.of 15

                                 INSTITUTION (address/phone)                            FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                                                         Cate-   Cate-   Cate-    Cate-    Cate-    Not Vulnerable
                                   BREVARD COUNTV (continued),          gory I gory 2 gory 3     gory 4 gory 5        to Surge

                              (Nu.uing Home.6- -continued)

                              21. West Melbourne Health Care Center                        XX
                                   125 Alma Boulevard
                                   Merritt Island
                                   (305) 453-0202

                              (Pubtic Shettvus) - NORTH

                              22.  Apollo Elementary                                                                     XX
                                   3300 Knox McRae Drive
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 267-7890

                              23.  Astronaut High                                                                        XX
                                   800 War Eagle Boulevard
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 267-5500

                              24.  Coquina Elementary                                                                    XX
                                   850 Knox McRae Drive
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 267-7014

                              25.  Imperial Estates Elementary                                                           XX
                                   5525 Kathy Drive
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 267-1773

                              26.  Jackson Middle                                                                        XX
                                   1515 Knox McRae Drive
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 269-1812

                              27.  Madison Middle                                                                        XX
                                   3375 Dairy Road
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 267-4077

                              28.  Mims Elementary                                                                       XX
                                   2582 US Highway 1
                                   Mims
                                   (305) 267-3344

                              29.  Oak Park Elementary                                                                   XX
                                   3395 Dairy Road
                                   Titusville
                                   (305) 269-3252

                              30.  Pinewood Elementary                                                                   XX
                                   3654 Lionel Road
                                   Mims
                                   (305) 269-4530

                                                                              96

                                                                    TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                     page -4   of  15

                            INSTITUTION (address/phone)                               FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                               BREVARD COUNTV (continued)             Cate-    Cate-   Cate-     Cate-    Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                                                     gory I   gory 2 gory 3     gory 4 gory 5         to Surge

                         (Pubtic ShetteAz - NORTH -- continued)

                         31.  Riverview Elementary                                                                       xx
                              3000 Jolly Street
                              Titusville
                              (305) 269-2325

                         32.  South Lake Elementary                                                                      xx
                              3755 Garden Street
                              Titusville
                              (305) 269-1022

                         33.  Titusville High                                            xx
                              1850 So. Washington Ave.
                              Titusville
                              (30S) 269-3561

                         34.  Brevard Comm. College-North Campus                                                         xx
                              1111 No. Washington Avenue
                              Titusville
                              (305) 269-5664

                         35.  First Presbyterian Church of
                                   Titusville                                                                            xx
                              1300 Golfview Drive
                              Titusville
                              (305) 267-2745

                         (Pubtic Shettv,%s) -  CENTRA

                         36.  Hans Christian   Andersen Elementary                                                       xx
                              3011 So. Fiske   Boulevard
                              Rockledge
                                      636-5610

                         37.  Cambridge Elementary                                                                       xx
                              2000 Cambridge Drive
                              Cocoa
                              (305) 636-3443

                         38.  Clearlake Middle                                                                           xx
                              1225 Clearlake Road
                              Cocoa
                              (305) 636-4021

                         39.  Cocoa  High                                                                                xx
                              2000 Tiger Trail
                              Cocoa
                              (305) 632-5300

                         40.  Fairglen Elementary                                                                        xx
                              201 Indian Trail
                              Cocoa
                              (305) 631-1993

                                                                              97

                                                                               TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                         SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                     page 5    of 15

                                     INSTITUTION (address/phone)                               FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                      BREVARD COUNTY (continued)              Cate-    Cate-    Cate-     Cate-    Cat  -    Not Vulnerable
                                                                             gory 1 gory 2     gory 3    gory 4 gory    5      to Surge

                                  (Pubtic Shettm - CENML - continuedl
                                  41.   Golfview Elementary                                                                         XX
                                        1530 So. Fiske Boulevard
                                        Rockledge
                                        (305) 632-3880

                                  42.   Kennedy Middle                                                                              XX
                                        2100 So. Fiske   Boulevard
                                        Rockledge
                                        (305) 632-9500

                                  43.   Poinsett Middle                                                                             XX
                                        501 Poinsett Drive
                                        Cocoa
                                        (305) 636-4982

                                  44.   Pineda Elementary                                                                           XX
                                        905 Pineda Street
                                        Cocoa
                                        (305) 636-3545

                                  45.   Rockledge High                                                                              XX
                                        220 Rockledge Avenue
                                        Rockledge
                                        (305) 636-3711

                                  46.   Saturn Elementary                                                                           XX
                                        880-Range Road
                                        Cocoa
                                        (305) 632-6161

                                  47.   Brevard Comm.  College    Central
                                            Campus                                                                                  XX
                                        1519 Clearlake Road
                                        Cocoa
                                        (305) 632-1111, Ext. 304/305

                                  48.   Cocoa Presbyterian Church                                                                   XX
                                        1404 Dixon Boulevard
                                        Cocoa
                                        (305) 636-9602

                                  49.   Ist Baptist Church of Rockledge                                                             XX
                                        1810 Cedar Street
                                        Rockledge
                                        (305) 636-1493

                                  50.   lst United Meth. Church of Cocoa                          XX
                                        825 Forrest Avenue
                                        Cocoa
                                        (305)  636-4811

                                                                                      98

                                                                    TABLE 15 (Cont.)

                                                                 SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                   page 6   of 15

                               INSTITUTION (address/phone)                             FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                                                       Cate-   Cate-    Cate-    Cate-   Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                 BREVARD COUMTY (continued)          gory I gory 2 gory 3       gory 4 gory 5        to Surge

                            (Pub,tic ShettvLA - fft4TRAL - continued)

                            51.  Hope United Church of Christ                                                          xx
                                 2555 So. Fiske Boulevard
                                 Rockledge
                                 (305) 636-0250

                            52.  Mt. Moriah AME Church - Cocoa                                                         xx
                                 305 Magnolia
                                 Cocoa
                                 (305) 636-0025

                            53.  St. Mary's Church                                                                     xx
                                 1132 So. Seminole Drive
                                 Rockledge
                                 (305) 636-6834

                            (Pubtic Shetteu      SOUTH

                            54.  Central Jr. High                                                                      xx
                                 250 West Brevard Drive
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 254-4875

                            55.  Creel Elementary                                                                      xx
                                 1566 Palmwood Drive
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 259-3233

                            56.  Croton Elementary                                                                     xx
                                 1449 Croton Road
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 259-3818

                            57.  Eau Gallie High                                                                       xx
                                 1400 Commodore Boulevard
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 254-8421

                            58.  Harbor City Elementary                                                                xx
                                 1377 Sarno Road
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 254-5534

                            59.  Johnson Jr. High                                                                      xx
                                 2155 Croton Road
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 259-3338

                            60.  Meadowlane Elementary                                                                 xx
                                 Minton Road
                                 West Melbourne
                                 (305) 723-6354

                                                                            99

                                                                           TABLE 15 (Cont.)

                                                                      SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                    page 7 of 15

                                  INSTITUTION (address/phone)                               FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                     BREVARD COUNTV (continued)            Cate     Cate-    Cate-    Cate-    Cate      Not Vulnerable
                                                                          gory 1   gory 2 gory 3     gory 4 gory 5          to Surge

                                (Pubtic ShetteAA - SOUTH - continued)

                                61.  Melbourne High                                                                         xx
                                     74 Bulldog Boulevard
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-4151

                                62.  Palm Bay Elementary                                                                    xx
                                     515'Allamanda Road, SE
                                     Palm Bay
                                     (305) 723-1055

                                63.  Palm Bay High                                                                          xx
                                     1 Pirate Lane
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-3031

                                64.  Roy Allen Elementary                                                                   xx
                                     2601 Fountainhead Boulevard
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 254-4496

                                65.  Sabal Elementary                                                                       xx
                                     1400 Wickham Road
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 254-7261

                                66.  Sherwood Elementary                                                                    xx
                                     900 Post Road
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 254-6424

                                67.  Stone Middle                                                                           xx
                                     1101 East University Boulevard
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-0741

                                68.  University Park Elementary                                                             XX4
                                     600 W. University Boulevard
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-2566

                                69.  Brevard Comm. College-So.Campus                                                        xx
                                     3865 No. Wickham Road
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 254-0305, Ext. 203

                                70.  FL Institute of Technology                                                             xx
                                     Country Club & University Park Blvd.
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-3701

                                                                                100

                                                                     TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                SURGE VULNLRABILITY ANALYSIS                   page 8   of 15

                              INSTITUTION (address/phone)                            FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                                                     Cate-    Cate-   Cate-     Cate-   Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                 BREVARD COUNTY (continuedl         gory 1 gory 2 gory 3       gory 4 gory 5        to Surge

                           (Pubtic She"eA,6 - SOUTH - continued)

                           71. Bethel Assembly of God                                                                 xx
                                 26 West Fee Avenue
                                 Melbourne
                                 -(305) 727-2606

                           72.   Bowe Gardens Baptist                                                                 xx
                                 2700 Sarno Road
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 254-5622

                           73.   lst Church of the Nazarene                                                           xx
                                 2745 So. Babcock Street
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 723-3745

                           74.   Ist United Methodist of Melbourne                                                    xx
                                 110 E. New Haven Avenue
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 723-6761

                           75.   Free Will Baptist                                                                    xx
                                 938 Lytton Road
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 254-7282

                           76.   Harbor City Baptist                          xx
                                 2740 No. Pineapple
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 494-4774

                           77.   Palm Bay United Methodist                                                            xx
                                 702 SE Point Malabar Boulevard
                                 Palm Bay
                                 (305) 727-8651

                           78.   St. Paul's United Methodist                            xx
                                 1591 Highland Avenue
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 254-6363

                           79.   United Church of Christ                                xx
                                 US I & Strawbridge Ave.
                                 Melbourne
                                 (305) 723-3575

                           80.   Wesley United Methodist                                                              xx
                                 50 Minton Road
                                 West Melbourne
                                 (305) 727-7585

                                                                                      101

                                                                           TABLE 15_"__('C0'nt.)
                                                                       SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                    page 9   of 15

                                   INSTITUTION (address/phone)                               FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                     BREVARD COUAITY leontZnued)            Cate-    Cate-    Cate-    Cate-    Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                                                           gory I gory 2 gory 3       gory 4 gory 5         to Surge

                               (Pubtic ShetteAa - SOUTH - continued)

                               81.   Our Lady of Lourdes                                                                      xx
                                     1710 So. Hickory Street
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-3636(Note: For dialysis
                                     (kidney machine) patients only)

                               82.   Palm Bay Recreation Center                                                               xx
                                     Port Malabar Boulevard
                                     Palm Bay
                                     (305) 727-7100

                               83.   Veterans of Foreign Wars                                                                 xx
                                     Post #4206
                                     3201 So. Dairy Road
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 724-4121
                               - - - - - - - - - - - - -
                              F-8-1  Trinity Towers West                                                                      xx
                                     650 E. Strawbridge Ave.
                                     Melbourne
                                     (305) 723-7512
                                     (Note: For handicapped only)

                                                                                  102

                                                                    TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                               SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                   page 10 of 15

                             INSTITUTION (address/phone)                            FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                                                     Cate-   Cate-   Cate-     Cate-   Cate-     Not Vulne able
                               VOLUSIA COUNTV                       gory I gory 2   gory 3    gory 4 gory 5        to Surge

                         (Ckoup HomW
                           1.  Beach Manor, Inc.                                                XX
                               331 So. Ridgewood Avenue
                               Daytona Beach
                               (904) 255-2389

                           2.  Big Tree Manor                                                                        XX
                               1000 Big Tree Road
                               Daytona Beach
                               (904) 761-0690

                           3.  Clark's Rooming House                                                                 XX
                               545 magnolia Avenue
                               Daytona Beach
                               (904) 253-2139

                           4.  Country Manor                                                                         XX
                               1127 West Herbert Street
                               Port Orange
                               (904) 761-7678

                           5.  Golden Days Rest Home                                            XX
                               834 No. Halifax
                               Daytona Beach
                               (904) 253-6364

                           6.  Lynn's Care Center, Inc.                                                              XX
                               1562 Garden Avenue
                               Holl Hill
                               (904@ 672-3135

                           7.  Lynn's Care Center, Inc., Phase 11                                                    XX
                               1529 Ridge Avenue
                               Holl Hill
                               (904@ 672-3966

                           8.  Mae Walls Care                                                                        XX
                               1218 Old Kings  Road
                               Holl Hill
                               (904@ 255-9225

                           9.  Martin Rest Home                                                                      XX
                               1301 Pine Ridge Drive
                               Holly Hill
                               (904) 255-2455

                           10. Ocean View Manor                       XX
                               624 So. Atlantic
                               Daytona Beach
                               (904) 258-5116

                                                                             103

                                                                          TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                      SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                  page 11 of' 15

                                    INSTITUTION (address/phone)                           FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                    -VOLUSIA COUNTV (continued)            Cate-   Cate-   Cate-     Cate-    Cate-    Not Vulnerable
                                                                         gory I gory 2    gory 3    gory 4 gory 5        to Surge
                               (G4oup Home-6 - continued)

                               11.  Port Orange Elderly Guest Home, Inc.                              xx
                                    414 Orange Avenue
                                    Port Orange
                                    (904) 767-5604

                               12.  Rastelle Manor                                                    xx
                                    934 So. Ridgewood Avenue
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 252-2627

                               13.  Shady Oaks Rest Home                                                                   xx
                                    1208 Kennedy Avenue
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 672-9895

                               14.  Signorelli's Elderly Care Home                                    xx
                                    158 Farmbrook Road
                                    Harbor Oaks
                                    (904) 767-1613

                               15.  Sugar Lake Retirement Home                                        xx
                                    224 Mission Drive
                                    New Smyrna Beach
                                    (904) 427-2492

                               16.  The Fair Haven                                                                         xx
                                    86 So. Ridgewood
                                    Ormond Beach
                                    (904) 677-1022

                               17.  The Greater Love Retirement Center                                                     xx
                                    1645 Center Street
                                    Holl Hill
                                    .(904@ 673-0957

                               18.  Todd Boarding Home                                                                     xx
                                    522 Walker Street
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 252-5426

                               (Ho6pitafs)

                               19.  Daytona Beach General Hospital                                                         xx
                                    1340 Ridgewood Avenue
                                    Holly Hill
                                    (904) 677-5100

                               20.  Daytona Coiimunity Hospital                                                            xx
                                    400 No. Clyde Morris Boulevard
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 255-8192

                                                                                    104

                                                                   TABLE 15 (Cont.

                                                               SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                   page 12 of 15

                            INSTITUTION (address/phone)                             FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                            VOLUSIA COUNTV (continued)              Cate-    Cate-   Cate-     Cate-   Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                                                   gory I gory 2 gory 3       gory 4 gory 5        to Surge
                        WoApitat-6 - continued)

                        21.   Fish Memorial Hospital                 XX
                              300 Lytle Avenue
                              New Smyrna Beach
                              (904) 255-8981

                        22.   Halifax Hospital Medical Center                                                       XX
                              Clyde Morris Boulevard
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 255-0161

                        23.   Ormond Beach Hospital                            XX
                              264 So. Atlantic Avenue
                              Ormond Beach
                              (904) 672-4161

                        24.   Ormond Memorial Hospital                                 XX
                              875 Sterthaus Avenue
                              Ormond Beach
                              NN) F311-1700

                        25.   Bowmdri's Nursing Center                                                              XX
                              350 So. Ridgewood Avenue
                              Ormond Beach
                              (904) 677-4545

                        26.   Clyatt Memorial Geriatric Center                         XX
                              1001 So. Beach
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 255-3653

                        27.   Daytona Beach Geriatric Center                                                        XX
                              1055 Third Street
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 252-3686

                        28.   Daytona Manor Nursing Home                                                            XX
                              650 Reed Canal Road
                              South Daytona Beach
                              (904) 767-4831

                        29.   Golden Age Nursing Home, Inc.                                                         XX
                              324 Wilder Boulevard
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 252-2600

                        30.   Good Samaritan Nursing Center                                    XX
                              325 So. Segrave Court'
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 253-6791

                                                                             105

                                                                           TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                         SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                    page 13 of 15

                                     INSTITUTION (address/phone)                               FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                     VOLUSIA COUNTV (continued)               Cate-    Cate-    Cate-    Cate-    Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                                                                             gor@     gory 2  gory 3    gory 4 gory 5          to Surge
                                (NwtA@ng Home,6 - continued)

                                31.  Holiday Care Center                                          xx
                                     1031 So. Beach
                                     Daytona Beach
                                     (904) 255-2453

                                32.  Huntington Square Convalarium             xx
                                     100 Broadway
                                     Daytona Beach
                                     (904) 255-6571

                                33.  Medic Home Health Ctr. of Ormond Bc                          xx
                                     170 No. Kings Road
                                     Ormond Beach
                                     (904) 677-7955

                                34.  Ocean View Nursing Home                   xx
                                     2810 So. Atlantic Avenue
                                     New Smyrna Beach
                                     (904) 428-6424

                                35.  Ormond Lutheran Manor                                                                       xx
                                     P.O. Drawer 397
                                     Ormond Beach
                                     (904) 677-9121

                                (Pubtic Sheeteu) -    EAST

                                36.  Burris-Oak Hill  Elementary                                                                 xx
                                     104 Ridge Road
                                     Oak Hill
                                     (904) 345-3453

                                37.  Campbell Center                                                                            xx
                                     601 So. Keech Street
                                     Daytona Beach
                                     (904) 253-1686

                                38.  Chisholm Center                                              xx
                                     577 Ronnoc Lane
                                     New Smyrna Beach
                                     (904) 428-2475

                                39.  Daytona,Bedch Comm. College                                                                xx
                                     500 Welch Boulevard, Bldgs. 14,16,2i
                                     Daytona Beach

                                40.  Edgewater Elementary                                                 xx
                                     550 So. Old Count Road
                                     Edgewater
                                     (904) 427-5296

                                                                                       106

                                                                      TABLE    15 (Cont.)

                                                                SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                     page 14 of 15

                           INSTITUTION (address/phone)                                FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS

                                                                      Cate-   Cate-    Cate-     Cate-    Cate-     Not Vulnerable
                              VOLUSIA  County (continued)           gory I   gory 2 gory 3      gory 4 gory 5         to Surge
                        (Pubtic ShetteA,6 - EAST - continued)

                        41.   Highlands-Hillcrest Elementary                                                            xx
                              323 Heineman Street
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 253-1891
                              (Note: medical Shelter only.)

                        42.   Holly Hill Elementary                                                                     xx
                              1049 Ridgewood Avenue
                              Holly Hill
                              (904) 252-6271

                        43.   Holly Hill Junior High                                                                    xx
                              1200 Center Street
                              Holly Hill
                              (904) 2S2-0421

                        44.   Hurst Elementary                                                                          xx
                              1340 Wright Street
                              Holl  Hill
                              (9U,l@ 255-3846

                        45.   Knights of Columbus Hall                                            xx
                              509 No. Orange Street
                              New Smyrna Beach
                              (904) 427-4211
                                      Ajedi,@al Shelter only.)

                        46.   Mainland Junior High                                        xx
                              215 Third Avenue
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 255-4561

                        47.   Mainland Senior High                                                                      xx
                              125 So. Clyde Morris
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 252-0401

                        48.   New Smyrna Jr. High                               Xx
                              100 Live Oak Street
                              New Smyrna Beach
                              (904) 428-5792

                        49.   North Ridgewood Elementary                        xx
                              365 No. Ridgewood Avenue
                              Daytona Beach
                              (904) 252-7322

                        50.   Ormond Beach Elementary                                                                   xx
                              100 Cordin Avenue
                              Onnund Beach
                              (904) 677-3611

                                                                                107

                                                                         TABLE 15 (Cont.)
                                                                     SURGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS                  page 15-of 15

                                   INSTITU11ON (address/phone)                            FLOOD HAZARD ANALYSIS
                                                                          Cate, 1gCate-    Cate-     Cate-   Cate-    Not Vulnerable
                                  VOLUSIA COUNTY (continued)             gory      ory 2 gory 3     gory 4 gory 5        to Surge
                               (Pub,tic She.tteA-i - EAST - continued)
                               51.  Ormond Beach Junior High                                                              XX
                                    151 Domicilio Avenue
                                    Ormond Beach
                                    (904) 677-7110

                               52.  Ormond Beach Senior Citizens Center                                                   XX
                                    194 West Granada Avenue
                                    Ormond Beach
                                    (904) 677-0311, Ext. 256
                                    (Note: Medical Shelter only.)

                               53.  R. Patillo Elementary
                                    300 Sixth Street
                                    New Smyrna Beach
                                    (904) 427-1392

                               54.  Port Orange Elementary                                   XX
                                    402 Dunlawton Avenue
                                    Port Orange
                                    (904) 767-0113

                               55.  South Daytona Elementary                                                              XX
                                    600 Elizabeth Place
                                    South Daytona
                                    (904) 767-0221

                               56.  South Ridgewood Elementary                      XX
                                    731 So. Ridgewood Avenue
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 252-0592

                               57.  Spruce Creek Elementary                                                               XX
                                    642 Taylor Road
                                    Port Orange
                                    (904) 788-1341

                               58.  Spruce Creek Senior High                                                              XX
                                    1484 Taylor Road
                                    Port Orange
                                    (904) 761-0220

                               59.  Tomoka Elementary                                                                     XX
                                    R.F.D. I Old Tomoka Road
                                    Ormond Beach
                                    (904) 677-3822

                               60.  Turie T. Small Elementary                                                             XX
                                    800 South Street
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 252-4738

                               61.  West Side Elementary                                                                  XX
                                    1210 Jimmy Ann Drive
                                    Daytona Beach
                                    (904) 253-1671

                                                                                           108

             With the assistance of the East Central Florida Hospital Council, State
             Department of Health & Rehabilitative Services, Civil Defense officers and
             other local officials, health care facilities within the study area were
             identified.    The predicted surge heights provided through the SPLASH II
             model and the maps of flood-prone areas produced from the SPLASH II results
             allow for assessing the flooding potential of group homes, hospitals, and
             nursing homes.

             As with public shelters, each health care facility was identified in regard
             to its location within a vulnerable area.       The flooding potential of group
             homes, hospitals, and nursing homes in Brevard and Volusia counties is
             summarized in Table 15.        As Table 15 illustrates, there are two group
             homes vulnerable in a category 1-2 storm and seven vulnerable in a category
             3-5 storm.     This analysis also identified three hospitals vulnerable to
             storm surge in a category 1-2 storm and one vulnerable in a category 3-5
             storm.    Finally, nursing homes determined to be susceptible to storm surge
             included two in a category 1-2 hurricane and six in a category 3-5
             hurricane. This information on surge-threatened health care facilities was
             also forwarded to local disaster preparedness officials and appropriate
             medical officials.      It is.recommended that Table 15 be used in defining
             risk to host evacuation evacuation contingency plans for health care
             facilities.

             SHELTER DEMAND

             Residents identified as potential evacuees in the Vulnerability Analysis
             may seek various alternative forms of shelter at varying d'istances from
             their points of origin.         These alternatives may include local public
             shelters, local hotels or motels, local friends' or relatives' homes, or
             destinations further inland outside the residents' county.

             The first step necessary in calculating public shelter demand is to
             quantify these various shelter preferences.             The Behavioral       Survey
             indicated that approximately 18.3% of the coastal residents sampled in the
             survey intended to utilize public shelter facilities. In addition,'another
             13% responded that they did not know what their destination would be.            It
             would not be expected that all of the respondents who have not made shelter
             plans would seek public shelter, although a substantial number undoubtedly
             would.    Therefore, to arrive at possibly a "worst case" situation, one-
             third of the "do not know"*responses were combined with the public shelter-
             bound responses to provide a total percentage of the evacuation population
             predicted to seek public shelter.         These combined percentages add up to
             22.3% of the evacuating population.           The balance of the evacuating
             residents    would    be   expected to seek shelter at           the   homes     of
             friends/relatives, in hotels/motels, or travel outside the county.             This
             information is summarized in Table 16.

             For comparison purposes, the percentage of residents in other coastal areas
             of Florida seeking public shelter is,shown in Table 17.           As can be seen,

                                                        109

                                                       TABLE 16-

                                     BEHAVIORAL SURVEY RESPONSE       DESTINATIONS

                          Destination:

                              Shelter                        18.3%

                              Friend or Relative             38.1%

                              Hotel or Motel                 30.6%

                              Do Not Know                    13.0%.

                                                         110

                                                                       TABLE 17

                                          COMPARISON OF BEHAVIORAL SURVEYS WITHIN FLORIDA          DESTINATIONS

                                 Ea,st Centuce   Ea,6t Centwl          Lee            Tampa         Sanibet-          Southwe6t      Southea,6t
          DESTINATION              Ftokida          Ftoxida         County             Bay          Captiva            FtoAida        Ftokida
                                   Coa6tat           Intand

           Shelter                 18.3%             45.6%           21.0%            37.9%            8.1%            24.0%            23.1%

            Friend or              38.1%               18.2%                          25.8%           45.4%            13.0%            28.0%
              Relative

                                                                    .53.0%

            Hotel or               30.6%               14.6%                          18.8%           38.1%            42.0%            10.2%
                Motel

            Do Not Know            13.0%               21.6%         26.0%            17.4%            8.4%            21.0%            11.2%

                 there is a relatively low demand among East Central Florid          *a coastal
                 residents for public shelter facilities when compared to other coastal
                 areas. It has been hypothesized that since many of the Brevard and Volusia
                 county residents had evacuated during Hurricane David in 1979, they may
                 have made plans for future evacuations.      These plans often involve making
                 non-public shelter arrangements.

                 By applying the percentages from the Behavioral Survey to the total number
                 of persons threatened by an approaching hurricane, an assessment of total
                 shelter demand can be made.

                 SHELTER CAPACITY

                 It would be expected     that shelter usage would vary, depending on the
                 intensity of the storm   confronting the region and its point of landfall on
                 the coast.   The identification of vulnerable areas and the population-at-
                 risk allows demand under various scenarios to be applied to the maximum
                 amount of shelter space available under those same scenarios.
                 In Brevard County, for a category 172 storm situation, there are currently
                 estimated to be 26,679 spaces available to meet a projected demand of
                 26,733 persons--resulting in a deficit of 54 spaces.            This deficit
                 increases during a category 3-5 storm situation, where the capacity
                 decreases to 25,347 spaces but the demand increases to 28,385.

                 Within Volusia County, a sizable excess of shelter space is available
                 during each of the storm scenarios. In a category 1-2 storm, 31,921 spaces
                 exist to meet an anticipated demand by 10,599 persons, resulting in excess
                 capacity of 21,322 spaces.    For a category 3-5 storm situation, the excess
                 capacity was calculated to be 7,218, resulting from a demand for 22,301
                 spaces and available spaces of 29,519.

                 PUBLIC SHELTER ASSIGNMENTS

                 For the purposes of this study, no formal assignment of shelters was made.
                 This was done in response to current policy in both Brevard and Volusia
                 counties, which discourages the designation of a particular shelter
                 location for a particular area of the county.     The reasoning behind this
                 policy is that such a designation reduces the flexibility and options
                 available to local officials in opening specific shelters to meet changing
                 demands by limiting their ability to allocate limited manpower and
                 resources on an as-needed basis.

                                                    112

                                                  TABLE 18

                                              Shelter Capacity

                                        1-2 Storm                        3-5 Storm

                                Brevard Co.    Volusia Co.        Brevard Co.    Volusia Co.

                Shelter
                Capacity         26,679          31,921              25,347         29,519

                minus

                Shelter
                Demand          269733           10,599              28,385         22,301

                equals

                Shelter
                Capacity
                Deficit            -54                               -3,038
                  or
                Excess                          +21,322                            +7,218

                                                     113

                ALTERNATE SHELTERS

                Due to the deficit of public shelter spaces in Brevard County, an
                assessment of hotel/motel,units was made to determine if alternate shelter
                space was available to accommodate the additional evacuees.             Information
                from the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council's Hotel/Motel
                Inventory was used to identify the number of units existing in the county,
                and information on seasonal occupancy rates was provided by Brevard County.

                The time frame for calculating the seasonal occupancy rates was June-
                November,    the time period formally designated as hurricane season.
                According to information provided, Brevard County experienced a 63%
                occupancy rate during this period.       The total number of hotel/motel units
                which could be expected to be available for shelter may be obtained by
                applying the 37% vacancy rates to the number of hotel/motel units in the
                county.

                In identifying possible alternate shelter capacities, the units considered
                for shelter use were only those situated outside the identified vulnerable
                areas in the inland portions of Brevard County.          Generally, due to the
                format in which the information is collected, this meant that hotel/motel
                units lying east of 1-95 were not considered.           In addition, the total
                number of units identified were delineated by size, double- or single-room
                occupancy.    Following the general rule of thumb utilized in the Inland
                Shelter Study, 90% of the units will be double rooms accommodating four
                adults and 10% of the units will be single rooms accommodating two adults.
                From this information, the      capacity of unoccupied hotel/motel rooms was
                calculated to be 8,561.

                In assessing the impact of      the potential alternate shelter inventory on
                the shelter deficit that        currently exists -in Brevard County, it is
                important to consider those     evacuees whose original intention was to seek
                shelter in a hotel/motel.         From the Behavioral Survey, 30.6% of the
                residents listed "hotel/motel" as their planned destinations.          Adding one-
                third of the respondents who answered "do not know" increases the figure to
                35%.   Assuming half would attempt to do so within Brevard County,
                approximately 21,000 residents would seek alternate shelters and the
                existing capacity would not be sufficient to accommodate these evacuees.
                Consequently,    a    deficit in hotel/motel units would occur              without
                considering the shelter demands of evacuees unable to find public shelter.

                Two conclusions can be reached for this assessment. First, provisions must
                be developed for "passing through" those evacuees unable to be sheltered in
                Brevard County to inland counties. Second, ongoing efforts should be made
                to identify and secure additional public shelters within Brevard County to
                alleviate the anticipated shelter deficit.

                                                          114

                                                 TABLE 19

                               ALTERNATE SHELTER ANALYSIS -- BREVARD COUNTY

                                               (Hotels/Motels)

                    Alternate Shelter Capacity                           8,561

                                                          Category 1-2          Category 3-5

                            minus

                    Alternate Shelter Demand               20,702                     21,980

                            equals

                    Alternate Shelter   Deficit           12,141                      13,419

                            plus

                    Public Shelter Deficit                    54                       3,038

                          equals

                    Total Alternate Shelter
                            Deficit                       12,195                      16,517

                                                          115

                                      TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS ELEMENT

                INTRODUCTION

                Previous sections of the report have discussed the background conditions
                which are to be used as the basis for estimating evacuation times.           This
                background data was developed from three major tasks which included:            a
                computer-based storm surge model defining the magnitude and extent of the
                threat to the region's coast; a statistically significant investigation
                predicting the probable behavior of coastal residents in a hurricane
                emergency situation; and an inventory and analysis of the facilities and
                resources available to local disaster preparedness officials to direct an
                evacuation.

                In performing these tasks, emphasis was placed on measuring as many of the
                variables as possible to permit construction of a series of quantitative
                evacuation scenarios.     Each scenario developed represents a different
                situation which may occur in terms of the magnitude of a storm approaching
                the coast, the number of people affected, the availability of sheltering
                facilities, and public response during an evacuation.          Based upon this
                information,    traffic    movements could then be developed which may
                realistically simulate a  one-time movement of evacuating vehicles over the
                existing highway network.

                This section of the report will discuss the assumptions and procedures used
                in undertaking the transportation analysis and present an estimation of the
                times required to evacuate the threatened areas of the region's coastal
                counties.   To provide local officials with a useful tool for making
                decisions, both clearance time and evacuation time estimates have been
                included as well as an explanatory text as to their significance to a safe
                evacuation  of the coastal areas.        Data developed as part        of    the
                transportation modeling effort has been included in the appendices.

                STUDY APPROACH

                The approach selected for conducting the transportation analysis was the
                result of investigations of similar studies previously completed in the
                State as well as a number of evacuation-related studies performed both in
                Florida and    other    states.    Emphasis was placed on selection of a
                methodology which would not only provide a comprehensive investigation of
                selected traffic movements for different hurritane situations but also a
                methodology which could be packaged for future updating by local govern-
                ments as population and roadway network changes occur. A major criterion
                considered in this regard was development of procedures which did not
                require use of the FDOT main frame computer facilities.

                The objective of the transportation analysis is two-fold:      first, to iden-
                tify the period of time that is required to complete the movement of
                traffic throughout the study area from locations of risk to areas of
                safety; second, to relate this time to the time available before hurricane

                                                     117

                  conditions pose a threat to evacuating residents.             The information
                  presented in this section provides both of these times which will allow
                  local officials an opportunity to amend the times as a situation develops.

                  METHODOLOGY

                  The following methodology was followed in developing the clearance time
                  estimates for the study.

                  Establish Evacuation Road Network

                  Activities performed for this work task focused on. developing a basic
                  evacuation road network for the two-county area.

                  Inventory Characteristics of Network Links

                  This task involved an inventory of the evacuation road network links for
                  input into the calculation of roadway capacities.      Elements used in this
                  calculation included roadway widths, number of lanes, horizontal and
                  vertical alignment, intersection features such as green time to cycle
                  length ratios, percent trucks, and peak hour factors.        Features such as
                  facility type and area type were also recorded for use in the calculations.

                  Establish Capacities of Evacuation Road Network

                  Using the data from the tasks above, calculations were made of the existing
                  capacities of the road network.       Capacities were based upon Level of
                  Service D traffic conditions (as defined in the 1965 Highway Capacity
                  Manual), since evacuation traffic involves high volume to roadway capacity'
                  situations.

                  It was uncertain whether the causeways/bridge@s leading from the barrier
                  islands, or the intersections contained within the evacuation roadway
                  network, created the most restrictive points of traffic flow.       Therefore,
                  roadway capacities inventoried in,the network links (above) were used to
                  develop intersection approach capacities in addition to link capacities.
                  This   capacity determination assisted in developing alternative routing
                  strategies as well as metering traffic at critical links to determine
                  clearance times.

                  Trip Generation

                  This task involved the preparation of productions       and attractions by:
                  Evacuation Zone; Hurricane Scenario; and Destination.           Socio-economic
                  variables available through the 1980 Census data tapes were utilized to
                  calculate total evacuation vehicles for each evacuating zone according to
                  the selected storm scenario.     These data were formatted by the proposed
                  destination of evacuees.

                                                        118

                Distribution Analysis

                This task distributed trips between evacuation zones (Productions) and
                shelter destinations (Attractions).     The primary inputs for this task were
                the traffic generated by evacuation zones and probable destinations of
                evacuees by zone.     This information was derived from previous tasks and
                material developed as part of Phase I of the ECFRPC's Hurricane Evacuation
                Study.

                Trip Assignment

                This task assigned trips   developed in the previous task to the established
                evacuation road network.    Vehicular trips, as opposed to person trips, were
                used as the basis for this activity.

                Critical Link Identification

                Based on the information developed through the previous work tasks,
                critical links of the evacuation network were identified.         A series of
                volume to capacity ratios (V/C) were calculated to determine which roadway
                segments would be most congested in moving evacuation vehicles.               The
                volumes calculated incorporated all traffic movements anticipated to occur
                on a roadway segment to ensure that all impacts were considered.              The
                crit*ical links identified through this task were used to calculate
                clearance times for each assumed storm scenario and each tested behavioral
                response parameter.

                Clearance Time Analysis

                Utilizing the identified critical links, this task estimated the clearance
                times for each of the five regional scenarios.            Traffic assignments
                developed previously were loaded onto the network in accordance with three
                public response distribution curves.

                Clearance time estimates involved three separate calculations.              These
                included the time required to travel from the evacuation zone to the
                critical point in the link, movement through the congested point on the
                link, and travel to an acceptable shelter destination (or out of county).

                Arrival times were calculated based on travel distance and travel speed
                from the evacuating zone to the critical point on the roadway network.
                Floating car technique measurements taken during peak hour conditions were
                used to determine travel speed.

                In the identified critical links, the total assigned volume exceeds the
                link capacity, causing a queue to form. The queue will only dissipate at a
                rate approximately equal to the link capacity, requiring excess vehicles
                assigned to the link to wait until the following hourly interval.        The sum

                                                      119

                   of the intervals requi-red to     clear the link is the queuing delay --fi-m-e-
                   experienced.    In determining    the queuing delay time for each of the
                   critical links, two factors were considered.       First, as the rate at which
                   traffic enters the critical link dictates the amount of time in which it
                   can    be cleared,    various arrival rates derived from the          behavioral
                   response curves were considered as well as each of the five hurricane
                   scenarios.    Second, background traffic influences the amount of congestion
                   experienced at each critical link.      Therefore, the arrival rate of this
                   traffic was factored into the analysis.

                   Link travel time, which is the time necessary to clear evacuation traffic
                   from the critical link once past the critical point of congestion, was
                   calculated    based on travel speeds and distance to the most distant
                   destination.

                   TRANSPORTATION MODELING INPUT ASSUMPTIONS

                   The transportation analysis provides clearance times based on a set of
                   assumed conditions and behavioral responses.      An actual storm approaching
                   the Brevard and Volusia coastal areas will almost certainly deviate in some
                   way from the scenarios used for this modeling effort.         Considering the
                   numerous variables involved in defining a hurricane--such as size, track,
                   intensity and how it is perceived by residents--this should not be
                   surprising.

                   To accommodate the differences between the scenarios and what may actually
                   occur, and to provide a useful tool for local officals, those variables
                   having the greatest influence on clearance times were identified and then
                   varied.    This allowed for a range within which the true clearance time
                   value might fall.

                   Regional Storm Scenarios

                   As mentioned in previous sections of the report, 74 hypothetical hurricanes
                   were simulated using the National Hurricane Center's computer models.
                   Storms were varied by point of landfall, Saffir-Simpson category, and
                   general movement. Calculation of clearance times for all simulated storms,
                   however, would be cumbersome and unusable for local emergency preparedness
                   officials, and also inappropriate, given the limitations of current
                   hurricane forecasting and storm surge simulation. Therefore, five regional
                   storms were selected for use in the transportation analysis.
                   Table 20 provides the regional storm number, the counties affected, and a
                   brief description of each selected storm.      These storms were chosen from
                   the 74 storms modeled by selecting the storm tracks causing the greatest
                   storm surge impacts on various portions of an individual county.               A
                   paralleling storm was included to examine the transportation impacts to the
                   region resulting from a progressive evacuation of counties along the east
                   coast of the State.

                                                         120

                                                 TABLE 20

                             TRANSPORTATION MODELING REGIONAL STORM SCENARIOS

               Regional Storm
                   Number                Storm Description              Volusia     Brevard

                     I                Category 1-2 landfalling             x           A
                                      storm at Melbourne

                     2                Category 3-5 landfalling             A           B
                                      sto.,@,m at Melbourne

                     3                Category 1-2 landfalling             A           x
                                      storm at New Smyrna Beach

                     4                Category 3-5 landfalling             B           A
                                      storm at New Smyrna Beach

                     5                Paralleling storm regionwide         A           A

               Key:
                    X = no evacuation required
                    A = Category 1-2 storm
                    B = Category 3-5 storm

                                                    121

                  It is important to note t  hat the five Saffir-Simpson categories of storms
                  have been collapsed into two ranges for each county.         This was done
                  recognizing   the similarities of storm surge heights for           different
                 .intensities of storms and realizing the manner in which storms change
                  intensity over time.     For both Brevard and Volusia counties, storms were
                  grouped into Category 1-2 and Category 3-5.

                  Population-at-Risk

                  One of the key inputs to the transportation analysis was an identification
                  of those residents who should evacuate for a particular storm situation.
                  Through the hazard analysis, those areas subject to flooding from both
                  storm surge and freshwater were delineated and the number of residents in
                  those areas calculated.     This allowed for an identification of those
                  residents who must evacuate for each storm scenario as well as those
                  residents who need not evacuate. The transportation analysis then produces
                  clearance times which reflect only needed evacuation movements.

                  Behavioral and Socio-Economic Assumptions

                  To perform the transportation analysis, a number of assumptions were made
                  concerning   how the population-at-risk would respond relative to an
                  evacuation order, how many of the available vehicles at residential
                  locations would be used for evacuation, and what percentage of the evacuees
                  would go to various catedories of destinations.     A number of assumptions
                  were made concerning dwelling unit and hotel/motel occupancies and number
                  of persons per mobile home and hotel/motel unit.

                  To determine the percentage of persons who would leave during each hourly
                  interval of the evacuation, three behavioral response curves were developed
                  for the region.    One curve approximated a long lead time provided by the
                  National Weather Service and a slow response by evacuees; a second curve
                  reflected a situation with a short lead time and a quick response required
                  by those choosing to evacuate; a third curve was similar to the response
                  rate provided by the behavioral survey, with some adjustment made to fit
                  between the first and second curves.

                  Response curves define the rate at which evacuation vehicles load onto the
                  street network at hourly intervals.    By examining three different rates of
                  response,   reflecting   responses reported during previous       hurricane
                  evacuations, a range of times may be provided into which-the-actual time of
                  an evacuation will fall.      The response curves used for this study are
                  depicted in Figure 15,
                  In addition to evacuating traffic, background traffic was added to the
                  calculations to account for those persons traveling to stores or homes.
                  Consistent with previous hurricane studies completed in the State, this

                                                       122

                                                FIGURE 15

                                     ESTIMATION OF CUMULATIVE DEMAND

                                       Behavioral Response Curves

              100

              90                              Quick Resp(nse

              80

          W
          F=  70
          0
                                                                            \\.Slow Response
              60

          (A
          a)

          U   50
          fo

          4-

          4J  40
                                                                           Behavioral Survey
          S-                                                                   Response

              30

              20

              10

                               6   5   4   3   2    1  0   1   2   3   4    5  6    7  8    9

                            hours before          evacuation         hours after
                                                                         o
                                 order               order                rder

                                                  123

                    traffic was hypothesized to load onto street networks in an inverse manner
                    relative to the behavioral response curves.       As an example, two to five
                    hours before an evacuation order is given when the first 20-30% of
                    evacuees are leaving home, 70-80% of the background traffic will be loading
                    onto the street network.

                    Several other assumptions used in developing the transportation model
                    included:

                         A) 2     persons/household
                              1.9 persons/mobile home

                         B)   1.5 vehicles per household
                               .89 vehicles per person (Brevard County)
                               .77 vehicles per person (Volusia County)

                         C)   10% of vehicles will be used in an evacuation
                              @1.905 persons/vehicles (Brevard County)
                              2.204 persons/vehicles (Volusia County)

                         D)   Due to adverse weather conditions, such as rain and wind, capacity
                              of roads is reduced to about 84% of dry weather capacity.

                    In developing these assumptions, the total number of vehicles by evacuation
                    zone was derived from information provided by the Division of. Motor
                    Vehicles on the number of registered vehicles in each county. This number
                    was compared to the population of the county to arrive at a ratio of
                    vehicles to people and then multiplied by the population of each zone.

                    Roadway System and Traffic Control Assumptions

                    In the selection of roadways to be used, an effort was made to include only
                    those street facilities with sufficient elevations, little or no adjacent
                    tree coverage, substantial shoulder width and surface, and those roadways
                    already contained in existing county hurricane evacuation plans.               An
                    additional objective was to provide east-west arterials and                bridge
                    combinations that would afford the least disjointed traffic flow.              In
                    selecting roadways on the mainland, efforts were also undertaken to omit
                    lengthy north-south movements which may interfere with traffic evacuating
                    from the barrier islands.

                    Relocation of the threatened population required the use of all major east-
                    west routes in the two-county study area.     The lack of alternative routing
                    movements, in many instances, prevented the omission of a particular
                    roadway which did not meet all of the established criteria.          The major
                    deficiency in this regard was the lack of sufficient elevation at points
                    along a roadway which could prevent freshwater flooding. This was the case
                    for roadways both on the barrier islands as well as on the mainland.

                                                            124

                                                    TABLE 21

                                               Vehicle Productions
                                          Category 1-2 Storm Situation

                                                 Volusia County

                Zone                   1             2                  3                    4
                                                                    A        B

                vi                    368            83           105        51              129
                V2                     --            --             --       --              --
                V3                    243            55             69       34              85
                V4                    409           185           116        57              143
                V5                     --            --             --       --              --
                V6                    646           146           184        90              226
                V7                    512           116           145        33              179
                V8                     --            --             --       --
                V9                     99            23             28       14              34
                VIO                   265            60             75       37              92
                Vil                    --            --             --       --              --
                V12                   517           117           147        72              181
                V13                   505           114           143        71              177
                V14                                  --             --       --              --
                V15                   405            91           115        57              142

                VI 6.                 262            59             74       37              '92
                V17                    --            --             --       --              --
                V18                   196            45             56       27              68
                V19                   277           175           220      189               271
                V20                    70            16             20       10              24
                V21                    --            --             --       --              --
                V22                    --            --             --       --              --
                V23                  2,036          460           578      285               713
                V24                    50            11             14        7              17
                V25                                                 --       --              --
                V26                   695           157           198        97              243
                V27                   545           123           155        76              191

                V28                   236            53             67       33              83
                V29                   154            35             44       21              54
                V30                 3,329           752           946      466            1,165
                V31                 3,131           708           889      438            1,096
                V32                    --            --             --       --
                V33                    --            --             --       --
                V34                   468           106           133        65              164
                V35                   264            60             75       37              112
                V36                    --            --             --       --              --
                V37                   102            23             29       14              36
                V38                   139            31             39       20              49

                                                           125

                                                   TABLE 21 (cont.)

                     Zone                   1             2                3                  4
                                                                       A        B

                     V39                  239             54          68      33              84
                     V40                   39             9           11        5             14
                     V41                   --             --          --      --              --
                     V42                  363             82         103      51             127
                     V43                   37             8           11        6             13
                     V44                  208             47          59      29              73
                     V45                  385             87         109      54             135
                     V46                  247             56          70      35              86

                     V47                   --             --          --      --              --
                     V48                   --             --          --      --              --
                     V49                1,175           265          334      164            411

                     V50                   58             13          16        9             20
                     V51                  221             50          63      31              77
                     V52                  698           158          198      98             244
                     V53                  438             99         124      62             153
                     V54                   37             8           11        5             13
                     V55                1,605           361          456      225            562
                     V56                  394             89         112      55             138
                     V57                  381             86         109      53             133

                     Key:

                     1   Total Vehicle Productions
                     2   Public Shelters
                     3A  Friend or Relative (in county)
                     3B  Friend or Relative (out of county)
                     4   Hotel or Motel

                                                           126

                                                   TABLE 21 (cont.)

                                                Vehicle Productions
                                           Category 3-5 Storm Situation

                                                  Volusia County

                 Zone                   1              2                  3                    4
                                                                     A         B

                 V 1                    368             83           105       51            129
                 V2                   4,765          1,077          1,353     667          1,668
                 V3                     243             55            69       34              85
                 V4                     409            185           116       57            143
                 V5                   3,589            811          1,020     502          1,256
                 V6                     646            146           184       90            226
                 V7                     512            116           145       72            179
                 V8                   2,056            465           584      288            719
                 -V9                     99             23,           28       14              34
                 VIO                    265             60            75       37              92
                 Vil                    997            225           283      140            349
                 V12                    517            117           147       72            181
                 V13                    505            114           143       71            177
                 V14                    956            216           272      134            334
                 V15                    405             91           115       57            142

                 V16                    262             59            74       37              92
                 vi @,                1,547            350           439      216            541
                 V18                    196             45            56       27              68
                 V19                    775            175           219      108            271
                 V20                     70             16            20       10              24
                 V21                    389             88           110       55            136
                 V22                  1,119            253           318      156            392
                 V23                  2,036            460           578      285            713
                 V24                    360             81           102       51            126
                 V25                     --             --            --       -L              --
                 V26                    695            157           197       98            243
                 V27                    545            123           155       76            191

                 V28                    236             53            67       33              83
                 V29                    154             35            44       21              54
                 V30                  3,329            752           946      466          1,165
                 V31                  3,131            707           890      438          1,096
                 V32                    175             39            50       25              61
                 V33                    909            205           259      127            318
                 V34                    468            106           133       65            164
                 V35                    264             60            75       37              92
                 V36                    853            193           243      119            298
                 V37                    102             23            29       14              36
                 V38                    139             31            40       19              49

                                                               127

                                                  TABLE 21 (cont.)

                      Zone                   1             2             A  3   B               4

                      V39                    239           54            68      33             84
                      V40                    399           90            113     56             140
                      V41                    --            --            --      --             --
                      V42                  3,264           738           927    457           1,142
                      V43                    788           178           224    110             276
                      V44                    208           47            59      29             73
                      V45                    711           160         .202     100             249
                      V46                    247           56            70      35             86

                      V47                    --            --            --     --              --
                      V48                    --            --            --     --              --
                      V49                  1,175          266          334      164           411

                      V50                    58            13            17      8              20
                      V51                    221           50            63     31              77
                      V52                    698          158          198      98            244
                      V53                    438           99          125      61            153
                      V54                    37            9             10      5              13
                      V55                 1,605           363          456      224           562
                      V56                    394           89          112      55            138
                      V57                    381           86          109      53            133

                      Key:

                      1     Total Vehicle Productions
                      2     Public Shelters
                      3A    Friend or Relative (in county)
                      3B    Friend or Relative (out of county)
                      4     Hotel or Motel

                                                               128

                                                    TABLE 21 (cont.)

                                                 Vehicle Productions
                                            Category 1-2 Storm Situation

                                                    Brevard County

                  Zone              1               2                        3                      4
                                                                      A            B

                  B1             4,559            1,031             1,021          912            1,595
                  B2             52253            1,187             1,177        1,051            1,838
                  B3             11,602           2,621             2,599        29321            4,061
                  B4             6,896            1,559             1,545        1,379            2,413
                  B5             3,667              829               822          733            1,283
                  B6               363               82                81           72              128

                  B7             8,089            1,828             1,812        1,618            2,831
                  B8               124               39                35           22               38
                  B9             5,830            1,317             1,306        1,166            2,041
                  B10              581              131               131          116              203

                  B11            1,093              247               245          218              383
                  B12                 6                2                  1           1                2
                  B13               85               19                19           17               30
                  B14              779              176               174          156              272
                  B15              845              191               1-89         169              296
                  B16              506              114               114          101              177
                  B17              972              220               218          M                340
                  B18            2,527              571               566          505              885
                  B19              456              103               102           91              160
                  B20               90               20                20           18               32
                  B21            1,023              231               229          205              358
                  B22            1,004              227               225          201              351
                  B23            2,260              511               507          452              790
                  B24            1,307              296               293          261              457
                  B25            1,963              444               440          393              686
                  B26              226               51                51           45               79
                  B27               22                 5                 5            4                8
                  B28               65               15                15           13               22
                  B29               40                 9                 9            8              14

                  Key:  I = Total Vehicle Productions
                        2 = Public Shelters
                       3A = Friend or Relative (in county)
                       3B = Friend or Relative (out of county)
                        4 = Hotel or Motel

                                                               129

                                                               TABLE 21 (cont.)

                                                            Vehicle Productions
                                                       Category 3-5 Storm Situation

                                                                Brevard County

                         Zone                1                  2                          3                          4

                          B1              4,559              1,031.               1,021            912             1,595
                          B2              59253              1,187                1,177         1,051              1,838
                          B3              11,602             2,621                2,599         2,321              4,061
                          B4              6,896              11,559               1,545         1,379              2,413
                          B5              3,667                 829                  822           733             1,283
                          B6                 363                  82                  81            72                128
                          B7              8,089              1,828                1,812         1,618              2,831
                          B8              3,806                 860                  853           761             1,332
                          B9              5,830              1,317                1,306         19166              2,041
                          BIO                581                131                  131           116                203
                          B11             1,093                 247                  245           218                383
                          B12                 31                    7                   7             6                11
                          B13                 85                  19                  19            17                 30
                          B14                779                176                  174           156                272
                          B15                845                191                  189.          169                296
                          B16                506                114                  114           101                177
                          B17                972                220                  218           194                340
                          B18             2,527                 571                  566           505                885
                          B19                456                103                  1.02           91                160
                          B20                 90                  20                  20            18                 32
                          B21             1,023                 231                  229           209                358
                          B22             1,004                 227                  225           201                351
                          .B23            2,260                 511                  507           452                790
                          B24             1,307                 296                  293           261                457
                          B25             1,963                 444                  440           393                686
                          B26                226                  51                  51            45                 79
                          B27                 22                    5                   5             4                  8
                          B28                 65                  15                  15            13                 22
                          B29                 40                    9                   9             8                14

                          Key:   I = Total Vehicle Productions
                                 2 = Public Shelters
                               3A = Friend or Relative (in county)
                               3B = Friend or Relative (out of county)
                                4 = Hotel or Motel

                                                                         130

                                                              EVACUATION ROUTING SCHEME
                                                                    Brevard County
            Evacuation       Evacuation                                              Routing Scheme------
              Zone(s)           Route                   Intra-County Evacuation                             Leaving the County

                Bl          AIA               Exit west on SR 528 (Bennett Cswy/Memorial        Continue west on SR 528.
                                              Cswy) using up to 3 lanes as directed.
                B2          AlA               Exit west on SR 520 (Hubert Humphrey Brdg/        Continue west on SR 528.
                                              Merritt Island Cswy) using@jup to 3 lanes
                                              as directed.
                B3          AlA               Exit west on SR 404 (Pineda Cswy) using up        Take Wickham Rd. (SR 509) north to 1-95.
                                              to 3 lanes as directed.                           Head north on 1-95 to SR 520. Exit west
                                                                                                on SR 520.

                B4          AlA & Patrick     Exit west on SR 518    (Eau Gallie Cswy).         Take Eau Gallie Blvd. west to US 1. Go
                            Dr.                                                                 south on US 1 to Sarno Dr. Head west on
                                                                                                Sarno Dr. to John B. Rodes Blvd. (SR 511).
                                                                                                Take SR 511 south to US 192. Exit west on
                                                                                                US 192.
                                                                                                                                              rn
                B5          AIA               xit west on US 192 (Melbourne Cswy).              Continue west on US 192.
                B6          AlA                                                                 Exit west on SR 510.(Indian River Co.).
            B7, B8          Courtenay Pkwy.   xit west on SR .528 (Bennett   Cswy.) using       Continue west on SR 528.
                            (SR 3) &          up to 3 lanes as directed.
                            Banana Dr.

                B9          Courtenay Pkwy.   Exit west on SR 520 (Merritt    Island Cswy/      Exit west on SR 520.
                            (.SR 3),          Hubert Humphrey Brdg.) using    up to 3 lanes
                            Tropical Trl. &   as directed.
                            New Found Harbor
                            Dr.
                BIO         Tropical Trl.     Exit west on SR 404 (Pineda Cswy) using up        Take Wickham Rd. (SR 509) north to 1-95.
                            (SR 3)            to 3 lanes as directed.                           Head north on 1-95 to SR 520. Exit west
                                                                                                on SR 520.

         L

                                                                EVACUATION ROUTING SCHEME
                                                                     Brevard Co. (cont.)

            Evacuation         Evacuation                                                Routing Scheme
              Zone(s)            Route                     Intra-County Evacuation                              Leaving the County
             B12, B13        us I               Exit west on SR 46.                                Continue west on SR    46.
                B14          us 1               Exit west on SR 50.                                Continue west on SR    50.
                B16          us 1               Exit west on SR 405    to SR 50.                   Continue west on SR    50.
                B18                             Exit west on SR 520.                               Continue west on SR    520.
                B20          us I               Exit west on Wickham    Rd. (SR 509)               Take Wickham Rd. (SR 509) north to 1-95.
                                                                                                   Head north on 1-95 to SR 520. Exit west
                                                                                                   on SR 520.
                B22          us I               Exit west on Eau Gallie Blvd.                      Take Eau Gallie Blvd. west to US 1. Go
                                                                                                   south on US 1 to Sarno Dr. Head west on
                                                                                                   Sarno Dr. to John B. Rodes Blvd. (SR 511)
                                                                                                   Take SR 511 south to US 192. Exit west on         :r-
                                                                                                   US 192.
                                                                                                                                                     M

                                                                                                                                                     M
                 B24         us I               Exit  west on US 192.                              Continue west on US 192.

                                                Exit west on Malabar    Rd. (SR 514)               Take SR 514 to Minton Dr. (SR 509) Go             0
                                                                                                   north on SR 509 to US 192. Exit west on
                                                                                                   US 192.
                 B26         us I               Exit west on Malabar Rd. (SR 514)                  Take Sk  51-4@to-,Ninton Dr. (SR 509) Go
                                                                                                   north on SR 509 to US 192. Exit west on
                                                                                                   US 192.

                                                               EVACUATION ROUTING SCHEME
                                                                       Volusia County
                                                                                        Routing Scheme
            Evacuation           Evacuation,,
               Zone(             Route                    Intra-Coun@y Evacuation                             Leaving the County
           V1, V2, V3       AIA & John           Exit west on SR 40 (Ormond Bridge)              Continue west on SR 40.
                            Anderson Dr.

           V4, V5, V6       AIA & Halifax        Exit west  on Seabreeze Blvd. (Seabreeze        Continue west On Mason Ave. to Williamson
                            Dr.                  Bridge) using both lanes as directed.           Blvd. Take Williamson Blvd. north to
                                                                                                 llth St. Head west on 11th St. to US 92.
                                                                                                 Exit west on US 92.

           V7, V8,,V9       AIA  & Halifax       Exit west on US 92 (Carlton Blank Bridge)       Continue west on US 92.
                            Dr.                  using up to 4 lanes as directed.
           V10, Vil,        AlA  & Halifax       Exit west on Silver Beach Ave. (Memorial)       Turn south on US 1 to Beville Ave. Head
               V12          Dr.                  Bridge) using both lanes as directed..          west on Beville Ave. to 1-4. Continue west
                                                                                                 on 1-4

           V13, V14,        AlA  & Halifax       Exit west on Dunlawton Ave. (.Port Orange       Continue west on SR 415.
               V15          Dr.                  Bridge, SR 415)                                                                                  W
                                                                                                                                                  rr
           V32-V38          AlA  & Saxon Dr.     Exit west on either the North Cswy (SR 40A:Continue west on SR 44.
                                                 or South Cswy (SR 44).                          Note: SR 40A merges into SR 44.

           V16, V17         us   1               Exit west on SR 40.                             Continue west on SR 40.
           V18, V19         us   I               Exit west on Mason Ave.; or                     Continue west on Mason    Ave. to Williamson
                                                                                                 Blvd. Take Williamson     Blvd. north to
                                                 Exit west on 11th St.                           llth St. Head west on     llth St. to US 92.
                                                                                                 Exit west on US 92.

           V20, V21         us   I               Exit west on  US 92.                            Continue west on US 92.

              V23           us   I               Exit west on  Beville Ave.                      Continue west on 1-4.

              V24           us   I               Exit west on  SR 415.                           Continue west on SR 415.

           V39, V40,        US   I& SR 40A       Exit west on  SR 40A.                           Continue on,SR 40A to SR 44. Continue
               V42                                                                                 est on SR 44.

                                                           EVACUATION ROUTING SCHEME
                                                              Volusia Co."(cont.)

            Evacuation      Evacuation                                           Routing Scheme
              Zone(s)          Route                  Intra-County Evacuation                         Leaving the County

            V43, V44      us 1              Exit west on SR 44.                           Continue west on SR 44.

            V 45, V46     us 1              Exit west on CR 442.                          Continue west on CR 422 to 1-95. Take 1-95
                                                                                          north to SR 44. Exit onto SR 44 and head
                                                                                          west.

               V48        SR 44             Exit- west on SR 44.                          Continue west on SR 44.

              An important input into-the transportation model was the traffic control
              assumptions.    In most cases, these assumptions were based upon the traffic
              control procedures currently in place in each of the two counties and
              outlined in each county's Peacetime Emergency Plan.         Examples of the
              assumptions used include:    intersections blocked off to allow only east-
              west traffic movements; light signalization, stationing of traffic control
              personnel to direct vehicle flow; and number of lanes available for
              evacuation.

              Several other assumptions were used for the transportation modelling.
              First, all bridges from the barrier islands to the mainland were assumed to
              be down and to remain down during a hurricane warning period.      (U.S. Coast
              Guard Regulation 33-117-C and FDOT procedure 571-004, 6, p. 15, provide
              Civil Defense officials with the authority to implement this procedure.)
              Second, it was assumed that adequate manpower was available for assignment
              to critical intersections to allow for smooth traffic flow.         Last, the
              transportation model assumed that vehicles breaking down on the roadways
              would be removed in such manner so as not to cause any significant delays
              in the movement of evacuating vehicles.

              Evacuation Travel Patterns

              For the purposes of this analysis, traffic movements associated with
              hurricane evacuation scenarios were identified.     As in previous evacuation
              studies completed in the State, five general patterns were delineated:

                   1)    in-County Origins to In-County Destinations

                            Trips made from areas subject to both storm surge and
                         freshwater flooding, and from mobile home units, in an individual
                         county to destinations within the same county.     These destina-
                         tions may be Red Cross shelters, hotel and motel units, and
                         friends or relatives living outside flooding areas.

                   2)    in-County Origins to Out-of-County Destinations

                            Trips made from areas as in (1) that enter a particular county
                         from another county in the region.

                   3)    Out-of-County Origins to In-County Destinations

                            Trips made as in (1) that enter a particular county from
                         another county in the region.

                   4)    Out-of-County Origins to Out-of-County Destinations

                            Trips passing through a county while traveling from another
                         county within or without the region.

                                                       134

                        5)   Background Traffic

                                Trips made by people anticipating the arrival of hurricane
                             conditions.    These may be shopping trips to gather supplies
                             and/or trips from places of work to home to gather the family for
                             evacuation.    This traffic also includes transit vehicles (buses)
                             used to pick up auto-less evacuees.

                   EVACUATION TIME REQUIREMENTS

                   Evacuation Times by County

                   As stated previously, the objective of the transportation analysis was to
                   calculate clearance time (the time it takes to clear a county's roadway of
                   all evacuating vehicles) and to relate that clearance time to an evacuation
                   order (the time before hurricane eye landfall at which an evacuation order
                   must be given to allow all evacuees to reach appropriate. destinations).
                   With regard to clearance time estimates, the primary factor affecting the
                   amount of time required was the rate by which people responded (evacuated)
                   to a hurricane situation.     This meant that the minimum times required to
                   clear a county's roadway network were--depending upon the response curve
                   applied during the analysis--5, 7, or 14 hours. The second most important
                   factor that influenced the initial clearance time calculations was the
                   extremely high vehicle to capacity ratio for certain links of the roadway
                   network. While most roadways could accommodate evacuating traffic within a
                   time approximating the response times tested, a few links greatly surpassed
                   this time. This resulted in an increase of a county's total clearance time
                   above what is actually required to evacuate a majority of a county's
                   threatened population.    A third influencing factor was the storm intensity
                   of the various scenarios modeled.      For Volusia County, in particular, a
                   larger storm dramatically increased the numbers of persons affected and,
                   therefore, loaded onto the transportation system.

                   Table :23 provides      ;the evacuation timing data calculated and developed
                   for Brevard and Volusia counties. These tables have been formatted to show
                   both   pre-evacuation order clearance time and post-evacuation             order
                   clearance time.     Post-evacuation order clearance time is calculated. by
                   subtracting the pre-evacuation order time, as shown on the behavioral
                   response curves,     from total clearance time.         Post-evacuation order
                   clearance time is then added to pre-landfall hazards time to arrive at the
                   time required for an evacuation order to be issued.       The format of these
                   tables has been developed to provide consistency between this study and
                   previous studies conducted in the State.

                   As a further explanation of the evacuation time components, the following
                   definitions are provided:

                   Clearance time: Clearance time is the time required to clear from roadways
                        all vehicles evacuating in response to an approaching hurricane.
                        Clearance time begins when the first evacuating vehicle enters the
                        road network (in accordance with a hurricane evacuation behavioral
                        response curve) and ends when the evacuating vehicle reaches its

                                                             135

                                                                            TABLE 23

                                                               TRANSPORTATION EVACUATION TIMES

                                                                       BREVARD COUNTY

                  Storm           Pre-Evacuation Order                 Post-Evacuation Order                  Pre-Landfall       Time Required for
                 Category         Clearance Time                       Clearance Time                         Hazards Time       Evacuation Order

                                  Response Curve   A:
                                    Quick Response/Short Lead Time
                   1-2                    2                                     3-6                               4-6                   7-12
                   3-5                    2                                     4-6                               7-11                11-17

                                  Response Curve B:
                                    Behavioral Survey Response
                   1-2                    3                                     4-7                               4-6                   8-13
                   3-5                    3                                     5-8                               7-11                12-19

                                  Response Curve C:
                                    Slow Response/Long Lead Time
                   1-2                    6                                      8                                4-6                 12-14
                   3-5                    6                                      8                                7-11                15-19

                                                                   TABLE 23 (cont.)

                                                          TRANSPORTATION EVACUATION TIMES

                                                                    VOLUSIA COUNTY

               Storm           Pre-Evacuation Order              Post-Evacuation Order              Pre-Landfall         Time Required for
              Category         Clearance Time                    Clearance Time                     Hazards Time          Evacuation Order

                               Response Curve   A:
                                 Quick Response/Short Lead Time

                1-2                    2                                 3-5                             4-6                      7-11

                3-5                    2                                 3-6                             7-11                   10-17

                               Response  Curve B:
                                 Behavioral Survey Response

                1-2                    3                                 4-6                             4-6                      8-12

                3-5                    3                                 5-8                             7-11                   1.3-19

                               Response  Curve C:
                                 Slow Response/Long Lead Time

                1-2                    6                                 8-11                            4-6                    12-17

                3-5                    6                                 9-12                            7-11                   16-23

                     destination. Clearance time includes the time required by evacuees to
                     secure their homes and prepare to leave, the time spent by evacuees
                     traveling along the road network, and the time spent by evacuees
                     waiting to clear points of congestion along the network.            Clearance
                     time does not relate to the time any one vehicle spends traveling on
                     the road network.

              Pre-landfall hazards time: Pre-landfall hazards time is the time frame
                    immediately before eye landfall within which evacuation should not be
                    carried out, due to the adverse effects of the arrival of sustained
                    gale force winds.

              Pre-evacuation order time: Pre-evacuation order time refers to a period of
                    time prior to issuance of the evacuation order, in which a certain
                    percent of evacuees have already left home and have entered the road
                    network.    This percentage is determined by the behavioral response
                    curve used.

              Evacuation order time:       Evacuation order time is the time in hours before
                    hurricane eye landfall in which an evacuation order must be given to
                    allow all evacuees to reach their chosen destinations.

              Brevard County

              During any given hurricane situation, in excess of 90% of the evacuating
              population in Brevard County will utilize the five bridges/causeways which
              span the Indian and Banana rivers.         Those roadway links leading to the
              bridges, principally AlA, as well as the bridges themselves, were found to
              be the most critical in terms of their ability to handle the projected
              volumes of traffic.      Two of the bridges, in particular, were found to
              experience large amounts of congestion for each of the response curves
              tested.

              In conducting the transportation analysis, initial clearance time estimates
              were made based upon the evacuation zone configurations                 previously
              discussed and traffic movements associated with these configurations.
              These traffic movements were similar to those currently outlined in the
              Brevard County Peacetime Emergency Plan which attempts to evenly distribute
              the traffic from the beachside evacuation zones among the county's five
              bridges/causeways.

              Utilizing these traffic movements, the Eau Gallie Causeway experienced the
              greatest queuing delay of any of the roadways tested.         The following table
              shows clearance time estimates for the causeway for each response curve by
              storm situation.

                                                               Storm Situation
                      Res2onse Curve                         1_2            3--5

                    Quick Response                         12.63 hrs.      12.63 hrs.
                    Behavioral Response                    14.36 hrs.      14.36 hrs.
                    Slow Response                          16.10 hrs.      16.10 hrs.

                                                        138

                  These times greatly exceeded what was required to evacuate other areas of
                  the barrier island--in many cases, doubling the time necessary to clear the
                  roadways.  Consequently, efforts were undertaken to redirect portions of

                  the evacuation zonal population to other roadways experiencing less delay.
                  .To reduce the number of vehicles using Eau Gallie Causeway, approximately
                  60% of the population was distributed to Pineda Causeway to the north and
                  Melbourne Causeway to the south.      This allowed for a reduction of the
                  clearance times at Eau Gallie Causeway to that approximating the behavioral
                  response curve lines, while having almost a negligible effect on the times
                  for Pineda and Melbourne causeways.

                  SR 520 also experienced an inordinate amount of congestion relative to the
                  other bridges/causeways in the county. While not as critical as that found
                  at the Eau Gallie Causeway, the congestion was sufficient to increase
                  clearance times almost five hours above that of the behavioral response
                  times. Therefore, an additional evacuation lane was added to the causeway,
                  providing for an increase of 504 vhp.    This allowed the time required for
                  clearing the link to be reduced by approximately three hours.

                  Volusia County

                  The situation in Volusia County is almost the reverse of that in Brevard.
                  Whereas the population centers in Brevard County are on the vulnerable
                  barrier islands, the majority of Volusia County's population resides on
                  the mainland. While most of these mainland residents would not be expected
                  to evacuate during the hurricane, their presence as background traffic
                  causes queuing delays to occur at several of the major intersections
                  through which evacuating traffic from vulnerable areas must pass.       It is
                  the delay at these intersections which determine the county's overall
                  clearance times. Efforts made by county officials to reduce the background
                  traffic preceding and during,an evacuation would have significant effects
                  on the time necessary to clear the county's roadways.

                  Evacuation Times by Regional Storm Scenario

                  Five regional storm scenarios were developed for transportation modeling
                  purposes. As mentioned previously, each regional storm scenario involves a
                  different storm track and/or intensity, thereby creating varying storm
                  effects in each of the two counties.    Using the evacuation times discussed
                  previously, Table 24 has been developed to provide generalized evacuation
                  order times by each regional scenario. The times are general in that the
                  behavioral survey response curve time has been used.

                                                          139

                                                     TABLE 24

                                             REGIONAL STORM SCENARIOS
                                  REQUIRED TIME FOR EVACUATION ORDER BY    COUNTY

               Regional                                              Time before  Eye Landfall (Hrs.)
               Storm Number         Storm Description                     Volusia       Brevard

                    I               Category 1-2 Storm                       x             8-13

                    2               Category 3-5 Storm                       8-12         12-19

                    3               Category 1-2 Storm                       8-12           x

                    4               Category 3-5 Storm                      13-19          8-13

                    5               Paralleling Storm Regionwide             8-12          8-13

                    X   No storm surge; little to no evacuation required.

                                                     140

                                            WARNING ELEMENT

              EXISTING WARNING SYSTEM

              The existing warning system is composed of several key entities of federal,
              state, and local governments.     Each of these plays an important role    in
              disseminating and interpreting hurricane hazard information as a storm
              approaches the State's coast.

              In the event of a hurricane threatening the coast of East Central Florida,
              the following entities would be involved in the warning process:

                   National Hurricane Center (NHC)
                   Florida Bureau of Emergency Management
                   Daytona Beach Area--National Weather Service
                   Area Coordinator/Florida Bureau of Emergency Management
                   Volusia County Civil Defense Office
                   Brevard County Civil Defense Office
                   Municipal Disaster Preparedness offices
                   Public Media (radio/TV)

              Figure 16presents a schematic of this warning system.

              The interpretation and dissemination of emergency information concerning an
              approaching hurricane by and between the government entities detailed above
              are geared to the particular characteristics of a storm and resulting
              conditions assigned to elicit specific and appropriate levels of readiness
              and response from the local areas placed under these conditions.     The two
              primary conditions are the "hurricane watch" and "hurricane warning."
              These conditions are announced for a specific stretch of coastline as part
              of one of the advisories that are normally issued by the NHC every six
              hours during the approach of a storm.   A Hurricane Watch condition placed
              on a specified area means that hurricane conditions are a real possibility
              in that area; a Hurricane Warning condition placed on an area (usually a
              250-mile stretch of coastline, as opposed to a Watch condition area of 500
              miles) means that hurricane conditions can be expected in that area within
              24 hours.

              The time frame for warning activities is desribed below, with key warning
              system conditions and activities related to hurricane eye landfall.

                o  72-hour advisory -- Storm-assigned category number on Saffir-Simpson
                   Scale by NHC.

                o  48 hours before projected eye landfall      Local areas placed under
                   Hurricane Watch condition by NHC.

                o  24 hours before projected eye landfall      Local areas placed under
                   Hurricane Warning condition by NHC.

                                                      141

                                                        Figure 16

                                               HURRICANE WARNING SYSTEM

                    (Federal)               NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)

                    (State)            FLORIDA BUREAU OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

                    (Areawide)    Area Offices of                       Area Coordinator
                               NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE            FLORIDA BUREAU OF EMERGENCY
                                                                           MANAGEMENT

                    (Local)   Brevard Co. Civil   Defense                 Public Media:
                              Volusia Co. Civil   Defense                      Radio
                              Municipal Disaster                               Television
                                Preparedness Offices

                                                              142

                 o   12-24 hours before    projected eye landfall -- Local area advised to
                     evacuate by NHC advisory or local National Weather Service office.

                 o   Chief elected official for particular county advised by Disaster
                     Preparedness    department    to   issue evacuation      order    for    its
                     jurisdiction.

                 o   Evacuation order issued.

                 o   Evacuation order disseminated to the public by public media and/or
                     emergency response agencies.

               In discussing the existing warning system, two considerations should be
               noted-

                     1)   Hurricane movement is difficult to predict beyond a certain time
                          frame.

                     2)   Evacuation decisions that are made without accurate information
                          may have adverse effects.

               The first consideration often leads to the second.         The average landfall
               point projection error in a 24-hour forecast is in the range of 100
               nautical -miles.    Within that "error" range, some areas will experience
               flooding conditions and others will not.         This uncertainty about which
               areas will be affected leads to the dilemma facing decision-makers.          Areas
               needlessly evacuating undergo the expense and potential hazards associated
               with a mass evacuation, while other areas failing to evacuate due to
               insufficient notice may face the threats to the public safety from the
               storm.

               The information made available through this technical data report provides
               local officials with an indication of the areas subject to tidal flooding
               and the steps necessary to carry out an evacuation.        Consideration of the
               evacuation times presented in previous sections of the report are one part
               of the decision-making process, serving as a tangible basis against which
               the probabilities and impacts of a hurricane may be weighed before an
               evacuation order is issued.

               GUIDE FOR EVACUATION DECISION-MAKING

               Interpreting NHC hurricane information and implementing proper emergency
               preparedness measures by local officials require knowledge of the common
               data base set forth in this study.          This data base will enable the
               coordination of evacuation decisions during a hurricane approach and
               comparison to SPLASH II computer runs of the actual approaching hurricane
               by the NHC.      This, in turn, will provide local disaster preparedness
               officials with a high level of information from which the actual storm
               conditions and impacts may be interpreted.

                                                          143

                 There are several steps which can be taken by local officials as part of
                 the decision-making process based upon the information contained in this
                 study. These steps are identified and discussed below.

                 1)   Identify Storm Characteristics

                      Storms are generally assigned a Saffir/Simpson Scale category number
                      by the NHC while the storm is 72 hours away from landfall.             A
                      situation may arise where the category changes during the lifetime of
                      the storm, requiring the storm to be re-identified.

                      The next step will be to eliminate various hurricanes simulated
                      through the SPLASH II model based upon the type of track detected by
                      the NHC for the actual hurricane.     As the storm moves toward the
                      State, its potential for approaching the region on a landfalling,
                      paralleling, or exiting track may be more easily discerned.      It is
                      important to note that any elimination or focus of preparedness for
                      particular hurricanes must be tentative because of the ability of any
                      storm to rapidly change direction during its movement.

                 2)   Identification of Evacuation Scenario Confronting the Region

                      The next step in interpreting the expected local effects of an
                      approaching storm is to identify the level of threat that would
                      confront the counties if the actual hurricane continued its current
                      approach.

                      As the decision-maker focuses upon a certain scenario, the predicted
                      surge heights and wind speeds associated with a probable storm can be
                      identified. This identification may provide the disaster preparedness
                      officials with the first indication of the level of population that
                      must be evacuated, zones to be evacuated, and public shelters which
                      should not be utilized for that particular scenario.

                 3)   Identification of Evacuation Time Confronting the Region

                      Based upon the preceding steps, it is possible to gauge the minimum
                      time needed for a successful evacuation.    This enables the decision-
                      maker to know when an evacuation order must be issued in relation to
                      eye landfall, so that the evacuation is safely completed prior to the
                      arrival of hurricane hazards.      These times are provided in the
                      previous section of the report.

                 4)   Adapt-ion to Actual Conditions

                      The last step to be taken by officials is to adjust the evacuation
                      time based on actual conditions. An adjustment to the times set forth

                                                          144

                   may be necessary due to one or more of the following conditions:

                          a)  Public behavior
                          b)  Early arrival of heavy rains
                          c)  Characteristic changes, forward speed, or conditions close
                                to eye landfall

              PUBLIC BEHAVIOR

              Past studies have indicated--and investigations of evacuee behavior during
              hurricanes David and Frederick appear to confirm--that approximately 20% of
              the population threatened will leave prior to issuance of an evacuation
              order.   This figure was common to each of the behavioral response curves
              tested in the study and helped determine the mobilization time periods
              used. The mobilization times represent the lower limit of time required to
              evacuate a county.       For example, in a quick-response situation, the
              mobilization time was calculated at 3 hours.       If a total time is less than
              3 hcur,, due, to lot.. t-i-avel time to the shelter, a 3-hour minimum evacuation
              is still assumed      The variable which must be closely monitored by local
              officials during actual hurricane Watch and Warning conditions is the
              percentage of evacuees leaving prior to the evacuation order.        A decrease
              in this percentage will increase the mobilization time periods and, hence,
              the minimum amount of time required to evacuate.

              EARLY ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS

              Pre-landfall hazard times range from 4 to 11 hours before eye landfall,
              when flooding or gale force winds might prevent evacuation from being
              carried out.    Depending primarily on the forward speed of the storm, pre-
              storm rainfall may precede these pre-storm hazard periods.         Instances of
              rainfall occurring as early as 20 hours before eye landfall have been
              recorded for several past hurricanes.       Such rainfall would reduce roadway
              carrying capacity because of limited driving visibility and wet pavement.
              Recalculation of roadway capacities were made within this report to
              compensate for this factor.      This capacity reduction was assumed for the
              entire length of the evacuation.      Further adjustments, however, may be
              necessary should rainfall arrive earlier than the 4-11 hours estimated.

              ACTUAL VS. HYPOTHEriCAL HURRICANE

              The formulation of the evacuation times in this report were based on
              hypothetical    hurricanes of probable characteristics.          As     mentioned
              previously, it is improbable that an actual hurricane will fit each of the
              characteristics used to develop a hypothetical storm. Two parameters which
              could significantly change expected pre-eye landfall hazards times if they
              are different are:

                                                        145

                       1)   storm size (in statute miles of the radius of maximum winds); and

                       2)   forward speed (in miles per hour).

                 As the actual hurricane's characteristics are identified by the NHC, the
                 pre-eye landfall hazard times should be adjusted if conditions warrant it.
                 In all cases, however, local officials can use the "worst case" probable
                 flooding maps as a basis on which to act.

                 In order that the procedures identified in this section work, constant
                 communication between decision-makers at all levels of government are
                 required.    It is also essential that the data base developed by this study
                 be    continually reviewed and updated by local disaster preparedness
                 officials and staffs as local conditions change and populations increase.

                 PUBLIC INFORMATION AND THE MEDIA

                 The success of any warning system is dependent on the ability to
                 communicate important information to the public in a timely manner.          The
                 public media--television, radio, and newspaper--is the primary means of
                 reaching the public before, during, and after a storm.           In order to
                 effectively carry out the procedures discussed in this report, a public
                 information mechanism needs to be developed to inform the public of
                 vulnerability zones, the threats to each zone, evacuation routes, and
                 actions needed to be taken during a storm event as well as general
                 hurricane preparedness measures and precautions.

                 As a result of this study, public information brochures will be developed
                 providing the detailed information required to complete a successful
                 evacuation. The brochure will consist primarily of an evacuation route map
                 and identify and mark vulnerability zones to enable residents to identify
                 their homes and monitor their vulnerability to various storm types.
                 Additional information regarding shelter availability, both in coastal and
                 inland counties,     will be provided as well as general preparedness
                 information.

                 Additional public information materials will also be developed in the form      of
                 television and radio scripts for use by commercial stations during hurricane
                 Watch and Warning periods. These scripts will be specific to the Watch and
                 Warning periods and will detail actions needing to be taken at those times.
                 Information provided in the brochure will be broadcast, either graphically
                 or verbally, at these times.

                 It is important that the public information brochures be updated regularly,
                 to compensate for changes in evacuation routes or zonal boundary changes.

                                                            146

                                                 APPENDICES

                                                                                       Page

                         A     Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale   . . . . . . .          150

                                 Level of Threat - A     . . . . . . . . .             151
                                 Level of Threat - B     . .. . . . . . . .            152

                         B     Pre-Landfall Hazards Time Adjustment Rates              154

                         C     Procedure foe Breaking Wave
                                 Setup/Astronomical Tide Analysis     . . . . .        156

                         D     Shelter/Medical Facilities Location Maps     . . .      159

                         E     Transportation Analysis Carryover
                                 Analysis Methodology    . . . . . . . .               174

                                                     147

                                                                                          APPENDIX A

                                               i@l

                                                              149

                                             APPENDIX A

                                     SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE

                            1. Winds of 74 -95 miles per hour
                                Storm surge 4 - 5 feet above normal

                            2. Winds of 96 - 110 miles per hour
                                Storm surge 6 - 8 feet above normal

                            3. Winds of 111    130 miles per hour
                                Storm surge 9  12 feet above normal

                            4. Winds of 131 - 155 miles per hour
                                Storm surge 13 - 18 feet above normal

                            5. Winds greater than 155 miles per hour
                                Storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal

                                                     150

                                           LEVEL OF THREAT -- A

                Description of Forces

                     Storm surge 4 to 8 feet above MSL accompanied by winds of 74 to
                     110 mph.

                Associated Hazards

                     Principal threat resulting from hurricane force winds           and
                     accompanying tornado activity. Areas lying adjacent to the ocean
                     or tidal rivers subject to flooding from storm surge.     Low-lying
                     causeways and roads (A1A) may be inundated several hours prior to
                     landfall, impeding evacuation of barrier islands.

                Damage Potential

                     Majority of damage to result from wind, principally to exposed
                     mobile homes or poorly constructed homes. Considerable damage to
                     signs, street lights, and trees. Buildings lying east of AlA on
                     the barrier islands to suffer damage from rising water and wave
                     action.

                Level of Evacuation

                     Brevard County

                     All residents of barrier islands (Evacuation Zones B1-B6) and
                     portions of Merritt Island (B7, B9, B10) and mainland (B13).
                     Evacuation of all mobile home residents within the county.

                     Volusia County

                     Residents of barrier islands (Evacuation Zones Vl, V3, V4, V6,
                     V7, V9, V10, V12, V13, V15, V32, V33, V35, V37, V38) and mainland
                     (V16, V18, V20, V23, V36, V27, V32, V34, V35, V37, V39, V44,
                     V46). Evacuation of all mobile home residents within county.

                                                       151

                                                LEVEL OF THREAT -- B

                     Description of Forces

                           Storm surge ranging from 9 to 18+ feet above MSL, accompanied by
                           winds of 111 to over 155 mph.

                     Associated Hazards

                           Both flooding and winds will produce considerable threat to the
                           area, along with associated tornado activity.       Storm surge will
                           cause major erosion of dune line, with the potential for
                           overtopping of barrier islands at several points in Brevard
                           County.    Oceanfront    and riverfront structures subject          to
                           considerable damage.     Roadways on the barrier islands and low-
                           lying causeways will be inundated three to seven hours before eye
                           landfall.   Extensive flooding around Tomoka Basin and Strickland
                           Bay in Volusia County.

                     Damage Potential

                           Extensive damage to structures (roofs, windows, etc.) from high
                           winds.   Complete destruction of mobile homes.      Major damage or
                           destruction of oceanfront buildings from storm surge. Erosion of
                           beachfront.

                     Level of Evacuation

                           Brevard County

                           All residents    living on barrier islands and Merritt Island
                           (Evacuation   Zones B1-B1O) and mainland residents           residing
                           adjacent to tidal rivers (B12-B26).      Evacuation of all mobile
                           home residents within county.

                           Volusia County

                           All residents living on barrier islands (Evacuation Zones V1-V15
                           and V32-V38) and mainland residents living adjacent to tidal
                           rivers or bays (V16-V24 and V39-V47).     Evacuation of all mobile
                           home residents within county.

                                                            152

                                                                                APPENDIX B

    I

    1                                                      153

                                                        PRE-LANDFALL HAZARDS TIME ADJUSTMENT RATES

                                       Storm Size
                               (radius of maximum winds)

                  Hypothetical                        Arrival of                      Actual Radius                  Adjusted Arrival Time
                  Hurricane                           Gale Force Winds                of Maximum                     of Gale Force Winds
                  Radius of Max. Winds                Time before                     Winds                          before Eye Landfall
                  (statute miles)                     Eye Landfall                    (statute miles)                       (hours)
                                                          (hours)

                                                                                          10                           4.25      (-.75)

                                                                                          20                           5.75      (+.75)               rn
                        15                                 5
                                                                                          30                           7.25      (+2.25)
                                                                                                                                                      CO
                                                                                          40                           8.75      (+2.75)

                                  Forward Speed

                  Hypothetical                        Arrival of Gale                 Actual Forward                 Adjusted Arrival Time
                  Hurricane                           Force Winds                     Speed                          of Gale Force Winds
                  Forward Speed                       Time before                         (mph)                      before Eye Landfall
                     (mph)                            Eye Landfall                                                          (hours)
                                                         (hours)

                                                                                            6                         12.0       (+7.0)
                       15                                 5                               12                           6.0       (+1.0)

                                                                                          18                           4.0       (-1.0)

                                                                              APPENDIX C

                                                 155

                                              APPENDIX C

                    Procedure for Breaking Wave Setup/Astronomical Tide Analysis

             Figure Cl is a hurricane surge hydrograph along the East Central Florida
             coast. The figure shows a still water surge envelope from a SPLASH II
             computer printout (heavy black line). The SPLASH II results do not
             include the.astronomical tide level or breaking wave set. Also, it does
             not include the tidal anomaly produced by a hurricane movement over a
             body of water. However, because the anomaly is a constant..5 feet it is
             not included.

             Also shown on Figure C1 is the astronomical tide and wave setup being
             superimposed on top of the storm surge envelope. The astronomical tide
             level shown here is for mean high tide.

             Figure C2 is a nomograph of the breaking wave setup versus the breaker
             height of the significant wave published by the U.S. Army Coastal Engi-
             neering Center in 1973. This figure allows for the computation of wave
             setu@ @ased on the predicted tidal level (storm surge and astronomical
             tide in an area. The formula used in computing the wave setup is as
             follows:            SW = 0.19     2.82 /Hb         Hb
                                                    @ @'T

                                 SW = Breaking wave setup
                                 Hb = Breaker height of the significant wave
                                   g= Gravitational acceleration
                                   T= Wave period
             The breaker height  of the significant wave (Hb) can be determined from
             the following:

                                 Hb = 0.78 db

                                 db = Depth of water at the breaker point of still
                                      water level

             Astronomical tide  levels were determined for the SPLASH 11 computer
             printouts. The range along the East Central Florida coast was approximately
             4 feet.

                                                      156

                                                  APPENDIX C

                                               STORM SURGE HYDROGRAPH

                       21-

                       20
                              STORM
                              SURGE
                       19
                              HIGH
                       18     TIDE
                              WAVE  ...........
                       17     SETUP

                       16

                       is,

                       14                             FIf

                       13

                cn
                       12..

                0
                C4

                LL.
                       lo-

                0
                       9

                                                                                         i -A-
                .j     8
                Lu

                       7

                       6
                       4      dr

                       3 -

                       2

                       1

                       0
                          0800     0900       1000     1100       1200     1300       1400       1500
                       TIME (HOURS)                           (eye landfall)
                                                       157

                                                                           Figure C2
                                                                       Breaking Wave Setup
                                                                                VS.
                                                                Breaker Height of Significant Wave
                  2.8,                                                      -Nomograph

                  2.6

                  2Z
                  2.i-                                                                                    177
                  2.0

                  1.8

                                                                                                                                                     M
                  IA

          CO
                  lu
                 w 1.2

                  1.0-
                                                           ,IN-                                                    Sw=O. 19 (1- 2. 82 dg@2) Hb
                  0.8

                  0.6

                  OZ

                                                                                                             Breaki.nq Wave Setup 3w)
                  0J,                                                                                                Versus
                                                                                                       Breaker Height of Significant Wave (HL;
                                       31    41    5     6     7     a     9     10    11    12   _-TY_ 14      is   16    17     is    19   20
                                                                                              1 - .             @l
                                                                        Hb (FEET)

                                                                          7

                                                                               APPENDIX D

                                                         159

                                                        95

                                                                                                                                  A

                                    cs
                                    C3 I c;

                                    cm
                                        C2,

                                                                                                     9                                                                                 jxVA, VL
                                                                                                                                                                                       i;,
                                                                                                                                                              AIA
                                                                                         40
                                                                                                              5A

                                                                                                                                                 7                                95

                                                49       0
                        DAYTONA BEACH

                                               3
                                      9            6-     AlA

                              92
                                                     31

                                                    2
                 95
                                            5A

                                                                                 Ei

                                                      CANA

                                                           st

                                                                     14

                                                 8

                                                                                                       PONCE BE LEON INLET

                              95

             40A

                            44                               C AL SE
                                                                                        BLACH

                      442
                                                                               AIA

                                                                                                                    Ca

                                                                                                    VOLUSIR Co.
                                                                                                    BREVARD CO.

                                                         C7

      P5

                               46

                                                                                                                       406

                                                                                                                                                     TITUSVILLE

                                                                                                     405

                                                                                                                                                                                                          WUL

                                                                                                                                50

                                                                                                                                                                                                           sc;

                           50                                                                                        405

                        4022

                                                 I N;:D

           L

                                                                                                                                                             NASA CAUSEWAY

                                     ST. JOHNS RIVER

                                                                                        407

                                                                                                               95

                                                    c;
                                                    ca
                                                    ca

                                                                                528

                                                                                                                                                             524

                 01,

                                              00 00 0
                             X-9
                                             u6u  u

                                                    ATLANTIC                                            OCEAN

                                                   yq
                                                      NAI
                 524
                                         ?OCOA                      MERRITT
                                                                     ISLAND

                                                                        HUBERT
                                                                      HUMPHREY
                                                                        BRIDGE

                                                                        ROCKLEDGE

                                                                                   i@s
          Q-A
                                                     CID

                                   95

                                                                                                                                  rn
                                                                                                                                  vo
                    U6

                                                                                                                                                  PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE
                                                                                     lk

                                                                                                                                                      SOUTH PATRICK  SHORES

                                                                                                                                                      AIA
                                                                                                                 10a;

                                                                                                                                                             SATELLITE BEA

                                                                                                                                                                INDIAN BAR

                                                                                AVRORA RD.
                                                               511
                                                                                                                                                                       CANO

                                                                                                                                  EAU GALLIE

                                                                                                                                          INDIALANTIC

                                                                                                61
                                                WIW HAVEN AVE.                           S4
                                                                                                 7

                                                                                                               MELBOURNE

                                                                                                                                                   MELBOURNE BEACH

                                                                                   CJI
                                                                                   cc
                                                                                   cc
                                                                                   507, PALM BAY
                                                                                                                                                        AIA
                                                            PALM BAY NO.,

                                         509

                                                            95

                                                                                                                                                     A
                                                   MALABAR RD.                            514

                                                                                                              FLORIDA BEACH

                                                                                                                                    AIA

                                                                                                                     BREVARD COUNTY.
                                                                                                                     INMAN RIVER COUNU

                                                                     - - - - - - - - - - -

                                                                               APPENDIX E

                                                      173

                                                 APPENDIX E

                                           Transportation Analysis
                                      Carryover Analysis Methodology

                Calculation of traffic movements for the transportation analysis involved
                applying vehicle production numbers-to a particular roadway in accordance
                with a specified behavioral response curve.     The hourly loading rates and
                resulting queuing delays then determined the number of hours required to
                clear a particular roadway link.

                An example of this analysis is shown with Bennett Causeway and S.R. 520
                causeway, for a behavioral survey response during a 1-2 storm situation.
                The number of vehicles anticipated to utilize a particular roadway are
                identified by evacuation zones and a percentage of usage for each zone
                during each hourly interval calculated and totaled.      The total number of
                vehicles originating from these zones each hour is then compared in the
                carryover analysis to the capacity of the roadway. If the number generated
                exceeds the capacity then a queue is formed which must be absorbed by the
                roadway during the next hour.

                By using this method the time required to clear a roadway link may be
                calculated.   This method was also utilized in examining intersection
                delays.

                                                      174

                                                     APPLNDIX E (cont.)
                                                                                      1-2 Stomi Situation
                                                                                      Beh. Survey Response

                     BENNETT CAUSEWAY

                     Capacity: 1470 VPHL (2L)

                     ZONE Bl             ZONE B7                                                 TOTAL

                     4,559 x  (.04)  + 8,089 x    (.04)                                             506
                              (.06)               (.06)                                             759
                              (.10)               (.10)                                          1,265
                              (.24)               (.24)                                          3,036
                              (.35)               (.35)                                          4,427
                              (.12)               (.12)                                          1,518
                              (.09)               (.09)                                          1,139

                                                          CARRYOVER ANALYSIS

                                             HOUR_      -.-QUEUE        HOUR         QUEUE

                                                1            0             2            0
                                                3            0             4           96
                                                5       1,583              6          161
                                                7            0             8            0

                                                7.00       hours to clear   link

                     SR 520 CAUSEWAY

                     Capacity: 504 VPHL (2L)

                     ZONE B2             ZONE B9                                                 TOTAL

                     5,253 x  (.04)   +  5,830 x   (.04)                                            444
                              (.06)                (.06)                                            665
                              (.10)                (.10)                                         1,108
                              (.24)                (.24)                                         2,660
                              (.35)                (.35)                                         3,879
                              (.12)                (.12)                                         1,330
                              (.09)                (.09)                                            997

                                                         CARRYOVER ANALYSIS

                                              HOUR         QUEUE        HOUR         QUEUE

                                                1            0             2            0
                                                3          100             4      1,752
                                                5       4,632              6      4,954
                                                7       4,943              8      3,935
                                                9       2,927             10      11919
                                               11          911            12

                                                11.90       hours to clear   link

                                                               175

                                            -i --- -1  ------------I---------I------------  1-1
                                            .11121111milm I'
                                             - 3 -6668 14101 8772