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NORTH, EAST FLORIDA HURRICANE EVACUATION STUDY PHASE I C- NASSAU BAX[j CLAV st I-IV )OMNS Northeast Florida 635.5 PUIPjAm .F6 SPA X is tVASSA @1)7 1984 It AGIIR Regional Planning Council 1984 NORTHEAST FLORIDA HURRICANE EVACUATION STUDY PHASE I February 1984 0 Prepared by the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council 8641 Baypine Road, Suite 9 Jacksonville, Florida 32216 The preparation of this report was primarily su'pDorted by a grant from the U.S. Office of Coastal Management, National oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and the,Florida Office of Coastal Manage- ment, Department of Environmental Regulation through the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1172, as amended, Supplemental funding was provided by the Florida Department of Community Affairs. I I I I I .1 I I I I I I I I I 'I - -----.q .p Prope or NoAA coastal zervices Center Library I TABLE OF CRUM Paqe ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi CHAPTER I - HAZARD ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I Hurricane Activity Along the Northeast Florida Coast . . . . . . . . . I Description of Hurricanes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Storm-Surge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Rain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Inlet Formations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Hazard Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Concepts and Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Methodology and Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Output of the SPLASH Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Storm-Surge Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Wind Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 CHAPTER II - VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 CHAPTER III - POPULATION AND DWELLING UNITS AT RISK . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Population at Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Coastal Population at Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Mobile Home Population at Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 CHAPTER IV - ROADWAY INUNDATION ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Nassau County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Duval County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 St. Johns County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Flagler County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 CHAPTER V - BEHAVIORAL SURVEY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . 53 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Questionnaire Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Survey Target Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Administration of Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Compilation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 County-wide Response Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Region-wide Response Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Key Response Analysis - Absolute Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Comparative Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 WE OF WffffiffS (COWINUM) Page. CHAPTER VI - PUBLIC SHELTERING INVENTORY AND DEMAND . . . . . . . . . . 86 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Shelter Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Shelter Demand and Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Hospitals and Nursing Homes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Recommendation 106 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 APPENDICES Appendix A: Excerpts taken from "The Formation of Tidal Inlets in Barrier Island Chains" Appendix B: SPLASH Model Appendix C: Survey Questionnaire Form LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: Hurricanes Which Passed Within 100 Nautical Miles of Jacksonville, 1886-1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 TABLE 2: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Landfalling Hurricane Approaching 90 Degrees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 TABLE 3: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Landfalling Hurricane Approaching 130 Degrees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 TABLE 4: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Paralleling Hurricane . . . . . 21 TABLE 5: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Crossing Hurricane . . . . . . . 23 TABLE 7: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Amelia Island, Landfalling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 TABLE 8: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Jacksonville Beach, Landfalling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 TABLE 9: Projected Storm-Surge Height, St. Augustine and Matanzas Inlet Landfalling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 TABLE OF CUffWS (cowmum) Page TABLE 10: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Flagler Beach, Landfalling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 TABLE 11: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Amelia Island, Paralleling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 TABLE 12: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Jacksonville Beach, Paralleling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 TABLE 13: Projected Storm-Surge Height, St. Augustine and Matanzas Inlet, Paralleling Hurricane . . . . . . . . . . . 32 TABLE 14: Projected Storm-Surge Height, Flagler Beach, Paralleling Hurricane . . . . . . . . @ . . , . . % , . @ . 32 TABLE 15: Coastal Population at Risk and Coastal Housi'ng at Rtsk . . 38 TABLE 16: Mobile Home Population at Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 TABLE 17: North Fletcher Avenue - Atlantic Avenue - State Road A-1-A 41 TABLE 18: State Road A-1-A on Amelia Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 TABLE 19: Heckscher Drive from Fort George Inlet to Broward River . . 43 TABLE 20: Atlantic Boulevard from 2nd Street to Intracoastal Waterway 44 TABLE 21: Beach Boulevard from Seawall to Intracoastal Waterway 45 TABLE 22: J. Turner Butler Boulevard from State Road A-1-A to Pablo Creek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 TABLE 23: Mayport Road: Mayport Naval Station to Atlantic Boulevard 46 TABLE 24: State Road A-1-A from Duval County Line South to State Road 210 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 TABLE 25: State Road 210A from State Road A-1-A to Intracoastal Waterway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 TABLE 26: State Road 210 from State Road A-1-A ' to Intracoastal Waterway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 TABLE 27: State Road A-1-A from 210 to South Ponte Vedra Beach . . . 49 TABLE 28: State Road A-1-A from South Ponte Vedra Beach to City of St. Augustine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 TABLE 29: State Road 312 from SR A-1-A West fo US-1 . . . . . . . . . 50 _'AP I KE OF MIMS (cowmum) Page TABLE 30: State Road A-1-A from SR 3 to Marineland . . . . . . . . . 51 TABLE 31: State Road 100 from Flagler Beach West to Bunnell 51 TABLE 32: State Road A-1-A from Marineland South to SR 100 . . . . . 52 TABLE 33: Comparative Analysis of Selected Behavioral Surveys . . . 85 TABLE 34: Shelter Inventory - Nassau County . . . . . . ... . . . . 87 TABLE 35: Shelter Inventory - Duval County . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 TABLE 36: Shelter Inventory - St. Johns County . . . . . . . . . . . 97 TABLE 37: Shelter Inventory - Flagler County . . . . . . . . . . . 99 TABLE 38: Shelter Inventory - Clay County . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 TABLE 39: Shelter Inventory - Putnam County . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 TABLE 4Q: Shelter Inventory - Baker County . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 TABLE 41: Shelter Demand and Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 ILLUSTRATIONS FIGURE 1: The Path of Dora . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 FIGURE 2: Development of Storm-Surge Along the Coastline . . . . . . 8 FIGURE 3: Land-falling Hurricane Tracks Selected for Modeling . . . . 11 FIGURE 4: Slanting Hurricane Tracks Selected for Modeliqg . . . . . . 12 FIGURE 5: Paralleling Hurricane Tracks Selected for Modeling . . . . 13 FIGURE 6: Crossing/Exiting Hurricane Tracks Selected for Modeling 14 FIGURE 7: Category 3 Hurricane Landfalling at Jacksonville Beach 16 FIGURE 8: Storm-Surge Envelope Flagler Beach to Jekyll Island . . . 17 FIGURE 9: SPLASH Model Wind Printout for Category 5 Hurricane . . . . 18 FIGURE 10: Category 3 Hurricane Moving Toward St. Augustin@ 25 FIGURE 11: Landfalling Hurricane Storm Surge . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 FIGURE 12: Paralleling Hurri'cape Storm Surge . . . . . . . . . 34 FIGURE 13: Index to Storm-Surge Inundation Maps . . . . . . . . . . . 35 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) MAPS MAPS I and 2: Storm-Surge Inundation Page Nassau and Duval Counties . . . . . . . . . . 35 MAPS 3, 4, and 5: Storm-Surge Inundation - Duval and St. Johns Countries . . . . . . . . . 35 MAPS 6, 7, 8, and 9: Storm-Surge Inundation - St. Johns and Flagler Counties . . . . . . . . . . 35 MAPS 10 and 11: Storm-Surge inundation Flagler County . . . . . . . . . . 35 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCIL Policy Body Members Baker county The Honorable Richard H. Davis, County Comnissioner Mr. Edward S. Fox, Citizen Mr. Hugh D. Fish, Jr. . Governor Appointee Clay County The Honorable Wayne J. Spivey, county Commissioner The Honorable Dale Wilson, County Carmissioner The Honorable William Beam, Mayor, Town of Keystone Heights Mrs. Carolyn Iavender, Governor Appointee Duval County The Honorable Bill Basford, Councilman-at-Large The Honorable P. W. Johnson, Tom Councilman, Baldwin The Honorable Joe Forshee, City Councilman, Jacksonville Mr. Idwal Owen, Governor Appointee Mr. W. Mitchell Hines, Governor Appointee Flager County The Honorable Merhl Shoemaker, COUNty Commissioner The Honorable A. B. Johnston, Jr., County Commissioner The Honorable Betty Steflik,' City Commissioner, Flagler Beach Mrs. Betty Jo Strickland, Governor Appointee Nassau County The Honorable Gene R. Blackwelder, County Commissioner The Honorable James E. Testone, County Commissioner Mr. Michael R. Pikula, Governor Appointee Putnam County The Honorable Co Ward Hancock, County Commissioner The Honorable Kelley Smith, County Commissioner The Honorable Leon Conlee, City Councilman, Palatka Mr. Brian E. Michaels, Governor Appointee St. Johns County The Honorable Francis N. Brubaker, County Commissioner The Honorable Harry Waldron, County Commissioner The Honorable Carl E. Markel, Clerk of Court, Governor Appointee STAFF R. Daniel Castle, AICP, Executive Director Planners: Calvin L. Burney Mac Reigger Coralie Chronister Bobbie,Zeman support Staff: Judith- K. Hahn Osa M. Tilman Project Staff Responsible for Study Director: John T. Rivers ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Research and planning in the area of oublic safety can be accomplished only with the cooperation of indviduals, both in government and in the community. I would first like to thank'all the members of the Northeast Florida Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Adsivory Committee, many of whom made substantial input, and reviewed and critiqued the Study as it was being developed. They are listed as follow: Mr. Willier. Alexander Mr. J. Fisher Griner. Director Court Administrator. 4th Judicial Circuit Public Safety, Maypbrt Naval Station Mr. Ray Ashton, Director M?. Coy Harris, Transportation Director St. Johns County Public Safety Flagler County School Board Mr. Robert Barzelogna, Director Mr. Barry "Bud" Harriss, Director Flagler County Civil Defense Putnam County Public Works Mr. Howard Basil. Public Safety Director Captain W. H. Hutchings Neptune Beach Clay County Sheriff's Office Honorable Jody Bateman Mr. Dawayne Igou, Director Mayor of Hastings Jacksonville Deputy Public Works Mr. Lewis Bean Mr. Bob Jones Nassau County Director of Adult Education St. Johns County Fire Coordinator Lieutenant Larry Beaton Mr. L. Douglas Jones Putnam County Sheriff's Office Nassau County Planning Administrator Mr. John Berhinger Mr. William Kavanaugh Amelia Island Director of Public Safety Harbor Master, Fernandina Beach Ms. Mikell Bowen Mr. Richard King Palatka Police Department/ Nassau County Engineer American Red Cross Honorable Robert McCarthy Mr. John Bowles Flagler County Sheriff Clay County Director of Public Works LCOR Robert Marx, U.S.N. Mr. Gene Burns Jacksonville Naval Air Station -St. Johns County Project Manager Mr. Richard Post Mrs. Joanna Catia Clay County Planning Director Jacksonville Transportation Authority Mr. Archie Roberson Mr. Don Chinnery Baker County Sheriff's Office Flagler County Engineer Mr. Gary Rodehorst, Director Mr. James D&Izell, Coordinator St. Johns County Civil Defense Florida Bureau of Emergency Managaaent Honorable William Rose Mr. Jerry Davis, Coordinator St. Augustine Beach City Commissioner Flagler County Civil Defense Samuel 0. Rowley, M.D. Captain Terry Davis Jacksonville Health Officer St. Johns County Sheriff's Office Ms. Janet Rumble Mr. Ivan Clare Jacksonville Hospital Authority Jacksonville Mayor's Assistant Mr. Jack Schnabel, Meterologist- Mr. James Corbin, Jr., Director in-Charge, National Weather Service Clay County Civil Fefense Mr. John Schwab, St. Johns County Honorable R. W. Dougherty Environmental Specialist Nassau County Sheriff Mr. Leon Shimer, Personnel Director Mr. George Duck, Director St. Johns County School Board Putnam County Public Safety fir. Robert Starratt. Safety Director rir. Michael Elliott, Director Jacksonville Port Authority Clay County School Support Services Mr. Curtis Telfair, Security Chief Deputy Director Robert Ervin Nassau General Hospital Jacksonville Sheriff's Office Mr. Frank Triay, Safety D IIrector Mr. Matthew Frankel, Public Safety Analyst Duval County School Board Jacksonville Public Safety Department Mr. Michael Troxler, Safety Director Mr. Charles Fox Cecil Field NAS Southern Bell, Jacksonville Mr. Charles Walker, American Red Cross Mr. Calvin Glidewell St. Johns County St. Augustine City Manager Mr. Ronald Weeks. Chief Mr. Terry Griffin, Director JEA Systems Operations Nassau County Emergency Management Chairman of Technical Advisory Comittee 9?. i4unald willlals Mp. Raymond Raldwin Wrecto? of Administratlea City of Baldwin PCV.&m County sch@el goaP6 Mr. Blaine Vorwaller 14?. 0. A. 'Buck' Wlllocks@ Directop Florida Department of Health N.E. FICAds Cmptor and Rehabilitative Services hwv@Gn Red cm,33 This was a grass roots study effort Tnasmuch a& many people in addition to those listed in the foregoing made input for which r am grateful. rn St. Johns County, a special committee was formed to inspect public schools as potential sheltering facilities. The members included Messrs. Steve Hand, Wally Baughn, John Atkins, and Douglas Steward of the St. Johns County School Board; Mr. Gary Rodehorst, Civil Defense D-irector; and Mr. Bill Tyler, Mrs. Stuart Crouch, and Mrs. Irene Pace of the American Red Cross. They were assisted by Mrs. Jane Cassell, a consultant under contract with the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council. Members of the National Hurricane Center in Miami must be acknowledged, particularly Mr. Brian Jarvinen of the Center's Research and Development Center. He generously assisted for one week in February 1983 in making application to the SPLASH II mathematical model computer terminal located in the Center and further assisted in interpreting data output concerning the hazards of hurricanes. Foremost among other government personnel who assisted in this study were Messrs. Charles Vigh, Ted Newsome, Ron Hilton, and David Elmore of the Jacksonville District Office of the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. I am equally grateful to Mr. Joseph Halusky, Marine Agent of the Florida Marine Advisory Program in Marineland, Florida. Mr.Thomas Castiglia, Vice President of Reynolds, Smith and Hills, Architects, Inc. of Jacksonville has my gratitude along with Fire Chief Frank Brunson, City of Jacksonville Beach, Fire Chief Wayne Royal, City of Atlantic Beach, and Fire Chief C. W. Strickland, Town of Orange Park. I am especially thankful to many volunteers in the Northeast Florida region who conducted a telephone survey which sybsequently was incorporated in this study report as Chapter V. Those wnom I single out for organizing the effort in each county are Mrs.Frances Long and Mrs. Helen Keegan of the Jacksonville League of Women Voters, Inc.; Mr. Sam Katz of the Association for Retarded Citizens, Clay, Inc.; Mrs. Elizabeth Kraan of the St. Johns County Council on Aging, Inc.; Mrs. Dot Driggers and Mrs. Francis Frank of the Association for Retarded Citizens of Putnam County, Inc.; and Mr. William Barnes of Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Nassau County, Inc. I would be remiss indeed if I should fail to acknowledge many volunteers of the Northeast Florida Chapter of the American Red Cross in Jacksonville for volunteering countless hours in data reduction required as a prerequisite for analysis. Appreciation is also due Mr. Mark Stoddard, Disaster Prepared- ness Coordinator of Clay County for special data gathering. iv Although the members of the Tech-ntcal Advi'sory, Commi'ttee. as, 1 i'sted have heell. acknowledged, three must be singled out agafn for having s-hared an immeasurable amount of expertise. They are Mr. Terry Griffin, Nassau County's Director of Emergency Services and Chairman of the Technical Advisory Committee, Mr. Robert Blodgett, Duval County's Civil Defense Director, and Mr. Jack Schnabel, Meteoro- logist-i'n-Charge, National Weather Service. Last, but certainly not least, my plarsonal thanks are due to two of my colleagues of the Regional Planning Council who gave valuable advice; they are the Honorable Ward Hancock, Putnam County Commissioner, and the Honorable Merhl Shoemaker, Flagler County Commissioner. Harry Waldron, Chairman Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council v INTRODUCTION Florida is recognized as the State in the nation most vulnerable to the destructive effects of a hurricane. The great length of the State's coastline, characterized by low-lying coastal lands and numerous-tidal inlets and basins, offers little protection from the hazards produced by hurricanes. Historically, this vulnerability is accentuated by the high probabiLIty of the State being targeted each year for a hurricane strike. Further, the State's problem of mitigating the detrimental ef- fects of hurricane hazards increases each year in proportion to the continuing development of coastal communities, particularly those lo- cated on relatively unprotected barrier islands. It is estimated that over seven million persons reside in 'the coastal areas of Florida, the majority of whom have never experienced the effects of a hurricane. In view of the severity of hurricane hazards, Florida's Department of Community Affairs has embarked on a state-wide program to develop seven coastal regionally-based hurricane evacuation studies and three inland shelter studies. The Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council has contracted with the State to conduct a region-wide Hurricane Evacuation Study in the Council's seven-county area of responsibility. The report which follows is the first of a two-phase study in preparation since January 1983, The second phase is to be completed by the Regional Planning Council by December 15, 1984. The purpose* of the Study, Phase I and Phase 11, is to assist local governments here in Northeast Florida 1)to determine the probable impact of a hurricane striking the region and 2) to provide local decision-makers with technical data to help them measure the critical time elements of an evacuation process, particularly in regard to transportation--the time to move the area's population from areas at risk to safe shelter. The scope of work and key elements involved in this, the first phase, is summarized as -follows- Hazard Analysis - Includes history of hurricane activity in the region, a description of hazards associated with hurricanes, and the results of a computer modeling effort to project prospective storm-surge heights (Chapter 1). Vulnerability Analysis -- Identifies areas of the region that are subject- to the hazards of a hurricane (Chapter II).. Population Data Analysis -- Provides an estimation of the at-risk population in the region's coastal counties (Chapter 111). Th.e purpose of the Study, however, is neither to describe how an evacu- ation should be carried out nor to develop operational procedures for implementng an evacuation; such are functions of county Civil Defense offices. vi 0 Surge Roadway inundation Anaiysis __ Analyzes potential saltwater floodin W be expected along roa6iays-that will be used as evacuation routes ?Chapter TV). e Behavioral Survey -- Based on a survey of the threatened population, predicts the -p-r-ob-a-bTe behavior of coastal residents in a hurrica+1e emergency situation (Chapter Y). @ Shelter Inventory -- Describes available resources for sheltering evacuees, and quantifies surpluses/deficits based on probable shelter demand (Chapter VI'). Of the seven counties in Northeast Florida within the Regional Planning Council planning district, the coastal counties of Nassau, Duval, St. Johns, and Flagler are included in Chapters I through III. In addi- tion to these four counties, Clay and Putnam are covered in Chapters IV and V. All seven counties including Baker are incorporated in Chapter Vi. In Phase 11, from March to December 15, 1984, the following additional work elements will be completed: @ Evacuation Scenarios -- Develop evacuation zones based upon hazard analysis, access to evacuation routes, geographic location, elevation, city boundaries, and natural and man-made barriers. a Shelter Assignments -- Assign percentages of potential evacuees in each zone to a presumably safe location such. as a specific public shelter. # Evacuation Routes -- Establish basic evacuation road network related to evacuation zones and the location of area shelters. # Clearance Time -- Calculate vehicle traveling times required to move threatened population to areas of safety; transportation modeling effort will simulate movement of vehicles on existing highway network that may occur during-hurricane evacuations. * Evacuation Time Estimates - Determine the time in half-hour segments needed for issuing evacuation orders based on the-pre-developed evacua- tion zones. Relate evacuation time estimates to the warning-mechanism used in the region for initiating evacuation movements during a hurri- cane emergency. In addition to the foregoing, a special study will be conducted on the St. Johns River, particularly in Duval and Clay Counties, to determine the possible flooding effects of the river and the need for evacuating areas along river banks and tributaries. Chapter I follows, vii CWTER Kqm @wysis HURRICANE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHEAST @@_LORID)A COAST The earliest record of hurricane act"vity in Florida dates from September 19, 1559, when severe winds were recorde@ for the area near what is now the City of Pensacola. With the exception of scattered reports in early writings, re- corded knowledge of hurricanes begins about 1871. Since then reasonably ac- curate accounts have been maintained of all hurricane tracks which have affected the United States. Since the turn of the century, 49 hurricanes made landfall on the coast of Florida of which only six came ashore in Northeast Florida. Since 1886, how- ever, 17 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of Jacksonville. As recently as 1964, Hurricane Dora having winds up to 115 miles per hour came ashore at St. "Augustine and caused considerable damage in Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns Counties and alonq@the St. Johns River. Table I is,a listing of the hurricanes which approached witiiin 100 nautical-miles of Jacksonville. HURRICANE DORA (SEPTEMBER 2, 1964 TO SEPTEMBER 25, 1964) @urricane Dora is described first and foremost as a case study inasmuch as it is the first hurricane in -@-fiis century to smash into the Northeast Florida coast directly from the Atlantic Ocean, See Figure I on page 3. During the week from the time the developing storm was first detected about 1,000 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Dora gained strength hourly while moving over open ocean on a direct path with Daytona Beach, Florida. On September 9, 1964, Dora was slightly less than 200 miles east of Cape Canav- eral, moving 16 m.p.h. -in a west to northwesterly direction. Peak wind velocity near the hurricane's center was estimated at 125 m.p.h. Gale force winds ex- tended nearly 350 miles to the northeast of the "eye", and 100 miles to the southwest. Hurricane watch was in effect from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to Fort Lauderdale, Florida; whereas, hurricane warning extended from Brunswick, Georgia, to Stuart, Florida. While still offshore on September 9th, Hurricane Dora caused damage ashore due to winds and high tides. County Civil Defense Directors reported water over all seawalls along the coast, and w-ind gusts up to 81 m.p.h., at Marineland and 65 m.p.h. at Mayport Naval Station. The Atlantic and Jacksonville Beach piers were washed away. The storm tidal phenomenon was already taking effect as water at high tide (.10-15 a.m.) was hubcap deep on beach municipal streets and backed (continued on page 4) T ABLE HURRICANES WHICH PASSED WITHIN 100 NALrnm Mius or J,AcKawiLm, 1286-1979 Year Date Closest Point Storm Intensity* Storm Name (Nautical Miles) (MPH) 1886 July 19 25 90 Not Named 1888 October 10 25 95 1893 June 15 59 90 1893 August 27 29 120 1893 October 12 83 115 1894 September 26 29 80 1896 September 29 60 90 1898 October 2 59 100 1899 August 14 83 120 1921 October 26 88 105 1935 September 4 86 100 1950 October 18 52 100 King 1952 August 30 72 90 Able 1960 September 11 47 110 Donna 1964 September 10 30 110 Dora 1968 October 19 35 80 Gladys 1979 September 4 35 98 David Refers to average daily maximum wind near the storm center. -2- cub N Eastpor DetroifTHE PATH b I &-u0slon] an*tucke*t OF DORA.. /'L Philadelphia i Atlantic City incinnati V7= -Baltimore 1@cain rw Wash Louisville -0 - I I A.M. MONDAY Richmond 0 - 5 A.M. MONDAY Norfol' Raleigh A SUN 5 columb;, Atlanta@_N: ornery Montg Nil* harl or, A Savannah 1A `c A A A A 'Mobile- A 1C 1@@ensacola IQ ;Z@' Jacksonville oo A 0# 0-4, e'"@ @z -,:j lkxv ;'dylona each 'R LSD 5 b 1% NN Tampa 850 1 0 @80 1 70 West Palm Beach 750 Ft. Myers Miamil BAHAMAS Nassau Key West,,.% San Andir San Salvador Havana Acklins Is.1 0 A dp Cama Turks Is. Isle of.Pines 6*--@ Great Inagua Is. Santiago Grand Cayman H A I T I 1 00 !@@ M. REP. JAMA'ICA % P^ <Q@Kingst Por Prince CSan-4- on PUER16 RICO j, Swan is. FIGURE - 1- up for two blocks into the City of Jacksonville Beach. By late afternoon of September 9th, access to beaches along the Northeast Florida coast was cut off as highways and streets flooded. After stalling about 50 miles offshoro) for several hours, Hurricane Dora turned northwesterly and came ashore at 12:15 a.m. on September 10, 1964, with the 11eye" moving onto shore a short distance north of St. Augustine. Although winds were reported as high as 115 m.p.h., sustained winds were near 100 m.p.h. along the coastline from St. Augustine to Duval County's beaches. The maximum sustained wind at the U.S. Weather Bureau's station at Jacksonville Airport was reported at 82 m.p.h. After coming ashore, Dora moved almost due west across North Florida. Northeast Florida's beaches sustained major damage. Among structures destroyed or severely damaged in Duval County were the Atlantic Beach Hotel, two major restaurants, a chateau, and a tavern. Major damage was done to the seawall which was broken in many places and portions washed out to sea. Streets and ramps leading to the beaches were severely damaged. More than 75 private homes along the beaches of Duval, Nassau and St. Johns Counties were destroyed. Fernandina Beach suffered the greatest loss of homes as tides and waves eroded the sand beneath more than fifty homes. In Ponte Vedra Beach, at least 20 homes were swept into the sea. Damage by tidal surge could have been worse; however, the hurricane struck at e.-xactly low tide. Mainland Jacksonville suffered severe wind damage, particularly to homes, trees, and utilities. The hurricane destroyed forty-two (42) homes and damaged 3,950 others (in the total of Duval County). Electric power was out in at least ninety (.90) percent of the county. Although Jacksonville received only 6.26 inches of rain, damage from flooding occurred in the west Jacksonville area and Orange Park, Clay County area between Avondale and Doctors Lake. After the hurricane passed, strong southerly winds caused severe flooding along Heckscher Drive, forcing the evacuation of homes. Total flood damages to homes, agricul- tural land, roads was esti-mated at about three million dollars. This did not include shoreline damage. Although no lives were lost, Dora did between $250 and $300 million in property damage in Northeast Florida. After Dora left Northeast Florida, the hurricane moved across the state to an area south and west of Tallahassee, turned to the northeast, and proceeded in an east-northeasterly course across Georgia toward Savannah. Dora then paral- leled the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts exiting at Cape Hatteras on Sunday, September 13, 1964. In Florida, Dora did extensive flood damage as the hurricane moved west toward Tallahassee. Nearly 19 inches of rain fell on Live Oak, Florida during a 36- hour period. Live Oak came under ten feet of water on its downtown business district and up to 15 feet in low areas of town. About 50 percent of the homes in the city were damaged and the area's corn crop was destroyed. On the west coast of Florida, Crystal River overflowed flooding thirty (30) percent of the Town of Crystal River. In the way of evacuation and shelteri'hg, Civil Defense officials estimated that 50,000 people in Florida fled the east coast as the hurricane moved up from Cape Canaveral. The Red Cross opened some 220 shelters to house approximately 26,000 people. Inland hotels were filled. -4- DESCRIPTION OF HURRICANES A hurricane is an intense cyclonic windstorm of tropical origin in which winds spiral inward in a counter-clockwise direction toward a core of low pressure. According to the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see page 6), storms with cy- clonic winds of 74 mph or greater are classified as hurricanes. A tropical cyclone with winds less than 74 mph, but with a closed circulation and maximum winds greater than 38 mph, is called a tropical storm. Weaker circulations are referred to as tropical depressions. The most distinctive feature of the hurricane is the center, or "eye" of the storm. This is the relatively calm area of the storm that is marked by ex- tremely low pressure. Within the eye there is a marked reduction in wind speed, the heavy rain ceases, and there is usually a clearing of the sky. Barometric pressures in the eye have varied from 26.35 inches in the 1935 hurricane which crossed the Florida Keys to over 29 inches in less intense storms. Surrounding the eye of the hurricane is the wall cloud. This cloud structure may completely encircle the eye and extend from the earth's surface to above 50,000 feet. This cloud system is usually less than 10 miles in width. The strongest winds, the heaviest rainfall, and the greatest pressure changes are in this region. Outward from the wall cloud region the wind speed decreases slowly. Hurricane force winds usually.occur within 50 miles of the center, although in extreme @ases they may extend for hundreds of-miles. This outer portion of the storm is likely to be marked by bands of sudden gusts of wind and/or rain. Inter- spersed between these lines of squalls are areas with little or no rain. Maximum winds usually occur on the right side of the storm at distances varying from 5 to 60 miles from center. In an intense storm sustained wind velocities of 150 miles per hour with gusts of up to 200 miles per hour may be expected at exposed locations on the coast. Wind force decreases substantially as the hurricane-moves inland, and sustained winds of over 100 miles per hour are sel- dom recorded at stations in the interior of the State. Hurricanes originate over warm waters. The frequency at which hurricanes occur and the location in which they generate vary throughout the June Ist to November 30th hurricane season. Sixteen (16) percent of all hurricanes which affect Florida develop during the month of August, thirty-one (31) percent in September, and thirty-one (31) percent in October. The remaining twenty-two (22) percent occur throughout June, July and November. These figures show that, although a hurricane may strike the Northeast Florida coast anytime between June Ist and November 30th, the highest probability for the occurrence of a hurricane is from mid-August to mid-October. August and September hurricanes normally form off the coast of North Africa and move west across the Atlantic. Early sunmer and fall h-urricanes form in the Gulf of Mexico and Wes-tern Caribbean Sea, th-en norve nortlie.ast toward the west coast of Florida. All hurricanes have the potential to cause extensive damage and loss of life. The manner in which the hurricane storm surge, wind, rain, and other factors -5- combine determines the level of the hurricane's destructive force. The level of threat for the various components of a hurricane occurs in the order of: storm-surge--the storm's greatest potential destructive force, wind--with its potential for associated tornadoes, and rain--causing inland and urban flood- ing. STORM-SURGE The storm-surge is the single most dangerous phenomena caused by the hurricane forces. The term storm-surge refers to the high dome of wind-driven water, 50 to 100 miles wide, that moves across the coastline as a hurricane makes land- fall. See Figure 2 on page 8. The storm-surge develops from a complex interaction of forward speed, angle of hurricane track, and the physical configuration or bathymetry of the ocean basin. It is the effect of bottom friction and the inability of the mass of water to flow down and outward that helps to pile up water and create the surge dome as the hurricane moves over shallow coastal waters. Therefore, the hurri- cane surge dome has its highest development in areas where the sea bottom has a long, gentle slope up to the shoreline. The peak of the storm-surge dome, which may extend from 10 to 50 miles north of the hurricane center for storms approaching the east coast of Florida, is counterbalanced by a sea level well below normal on the opposite side of the hurricane center. This difference in water pressure generates strong along- shore currents which tear at the coastal edge often sweeping away sand bars, sand dunes and even buildings. WIND Wind can be a lethal component of a hurricane's destructive force. For exam- ple, in the 1926 hurricane that hit Miami', Florida, a large percentage of the 115 deaths was due to flying debris. The flying debris came from disintegrat- ing houses which were not constructed to withstand hurricane force winds. The worst hurricane death toll in Florida's history, however, occurred in 1928 when hurricane winds blew the water out of Lake Okeechobee, flooding several communi- ties and drowning nearly 2,000 people. Hurricanes are categorized according to the intensity of maximum sustained winds around their center or eye. For expediency the National Weather Service has adopted and utilized the Saffir/Simpson Scale, which not only categorizes storms according to sustained winds, but also describes the expected surge heights. The five categories of hurricanes according to the Saffir/Simpson Scale are listed as follow: Category Winds Storm-Surge Tm.-P-.F (ft.) 1 74- 95 4-5 2 96-110 6-8 3 111-130 9-12 4 131-155 13-18 5 155 plus 19 plus -6- In addition to maximum sustained winds, the hurricane wind envelope may contain numerous tornado-strength gusts which can exceed sustained wind intensity by 20 to 50 percent. For example, a hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph could have associated wind gusts of up to 150 mph. As the force exerted by the wind increases with the square of the wind speed, a 150 mph wind exerts four times, not twice, the force of a 75 mph wind. It is apparent, therefore, that hurri- canes associated with wind gusts can cause considerable damage from an other- wise relatively mild hurricane. Often the danger from a Category I hurricane is that associated with these accompanying tornadoes-within the gale force wind envelope (i.e. 39-73 mph). RAIN The hurricane's third potentially destructive force is rain. Rain squalls may extend outward as far as 500 miles from the center of a hurricane. The amount of rain that a hurricane may deliver to a region is dependent upon many fac- tors. Three of the most important factors are (1) the angle at which a hurri- cane gproaches landfall, (2) the speed at which the hurricane is traveling, and (3 the radius from the center to which hurricane forces extend--the size of the hurricane. The speed at which a hurricane is moving and the size of the hurricane dictates how long the storm will remain over an area and, therefore, the time frame during which it has the opportunity to release rainfall on that area. During the average 24-hour period that it takes a hurricane to pass through an area, an average rainfall of between 5 to 10 inches may occur. There have been numerous hurricane rainfalls in Florida experience, however, where 12 to 20 inches of rainfall have occurred. The heaviest rainfall associated with a hurricane in the United States was measured during Hurricane Easy. This storm dropped 38.7 inches of rain at Yankeetown, Cedar Key, during the 24-hour period of September 5 to September 6, 1950. INLET FORMATIONS Up to a point, the level of threat description has centered on storm surge, wind, and rain. One additional threat which is noteworthy, however, is inlet formations caused by storm surge attack either from'the seaward side of barrier islands, or from the lagoon side as the aftermath of a storm surge rushes back to sea (caus- ing a breakthrough of the barrier Island), The latter warrants special attention here, After passage of the center of a hurricane, a sometimes rapi'd wind shift to the offshore dfrectton can take place which lowers the storm surge level on the ocean side of the barrier island; water piled up on the mainland will be left unsupported. It will rush back across a lagoon (or, in the case of Northeast Florida, the rntracoastal Waterway) under the force of gravity, aided by the offshore wtnd, and slam against the landward side of the barrier island. At certain points, the water may overtop the island, erode a channel below the usual sea level (as the ocean level is now,lower than normal) forming a new tidal inlet. See Appendtx A, excerpts taken from an abstract entitled "The Formation of Tidal Inlets in Barrier Island Chains", whtch was de- veloped in 1983 by Steve Hughes, Graduate Assistant, Universi'ty of Flori'da. -7- %SIN 14ean Sea Level 'Normal day. The sea rises and falls with astronomical tidal action. There are the usual small waves. Above Normal Tide Mean Sea Level A hurricane is 12 hours away. The tide is a little above normal; the water moves further up the beach. Swells are beginning to move in from the deep ocean. Waves as high as 5 to 8 feet run up thebeach. 15 Foot Storm Surge Above Normal Tide Mean Sea Level Hurricane is moving close ashore. A 15-foot surge is added to the normal 2-foot tide creating a 17-foot storm tide. This mound of water is moving ashore along an area of coastline 50 to 100 miles wide. - av, ea Le@ve FIGURE 2 DEVELOPMENT OF STORM-SURGE ALONG THE COASTLINE HAZARD ANALYS IS CONCEPTS AND ASSUMPTIONS Conceptually, this section is based on the effects resulting from the least severe to the most severe of hurricanes which can impact the seven counties of Northeast Florida, particularly the four coastal counties of Duval, Flagler, Nassau and St. Johns. The four coastal counties are emphasized inasmuch as they will bear the brunt of expected surges emanating from most hurricanes reaching the area. By analyzing the effects of all levels of hurricane severi- ty, hazards of any potential magnitude are considered in the planning efforts for warning, evacuation, and sheltering. Results from the study of various levels of hurricane severity provide a means of quantifying and qualifying the effects of hurricanes, particularly in terms of storm-surge and wind. The use of output data directly influence two main concerns of this Plan which are: the extent of the areas threatened by hurri- canes, which will require evacuation, and the time required for residents in threatened areas to safely evacuate before a hurricane arrives in their respec- tive area or areas. Inasmuch as the predictive model utilized in this study does not address rain- fall nor the frictional drag on the velocity of winds as a hurricane moves in- land, two general assumptions follow: 1. All mobile home residents threatened by all categories of hurricanes should evacuate to shelters, and 2. Rainfall sufficient to flood evacuation routes will generally coin- cide with the arrival of sustained gale force winds. METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION Hypothetical hurricane tracks of varying forward speed and direction were de- veloped in February, 1983 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. The track information is given by latitude and longitude coordinates at six- hour intervals. The speed of the hurricane is implicit in the distance between the six-hourly coordinates. Thus, if the six-hourly values are close together, then the hurricane moves slower than if they are further apart. A typical forward speed for hurricanes affecting the Northeast Florida region is 12 mph. In previous studies, it has been shown that hurricanes moving at faster forward speeds produce higher peak storm-surge values than slower moving hurricanes. Also, the angle that the hurricane track makes with the coastline is also im- portant. Hurricanes striking the coast at a 90 degree angle (normal) will pro- duce higher peak surge values than the same hurricanes moving parallel to the coastline. Along these hypothetical tracks, hurricanes of varying intensity and size were created. The measurement of intensity was given by the difterence between the sea level pressure outside the hurricane circulation and the value in the eye or center of the hurricane. The value is called the pressure deficit or delta-p. -9- This value is directly related to the maximum wind speed such that a large -1 have a large maximum wind speed. As the water surface pressure delta-p wfl gradient and surface wind stress are larger for larger delta-p and maximum winds the peak storm-surge is correspondingly larger. An estimate of the size of a hurricane was given by the distance from the eye to the maximum wind. This value is called the radius of the maximum wind or RMW. The RMW is very important because a hurricane landfalling normal to a coastline will produce a peak surge at this location on the right side of the hurricane (i.e. observer is moving with the eye and looking forward along the track). Typical values of RMW for hurricanes affecting the Northeast Florida region are 20 miles for category 1-4 hurricanes, and 15 miles for category 5 hurricanes. Thus, the peak surge for a category 3 hurricane landfalling at St. Augustine will be at the south end of Ponte Vedra Beach (some 20 miles north of St. Augustine). The latitude, longitude, delta-p, and RMW information at six-hourly intervals were coded onto computer data cards and submitted via remote terminal as input to the National Weather Service's IBM 360/195 computer in Suitland, Maryland. The data initializes the computerized mathematical model known by the acronym SPLASH (Yecial Program to List the Amplitudes of Surges from Hurricanes). The SPLASH model computes stom-surge heights and concomitant wind speed and direc- tion values along gently curving coasts based upon the hypothetical track data entered. See Appendix B for a detailed description of the SPLASH model. To consider all possible hurricane effects, four different hurricane movements were modeled: landfalling at 90 degrees relative to the coastline, landfalling at 130 degrees relative to the coastline (known also as "slanting"), parallel- ing, and crossing/exiting. The landfalling, including slanting, hurricanes were modeled in all categories (one through five); whereas, the crossing/exiting and paralleling hurricanes were modeled in categories one through three. As modeled, the crossing/exiting were moving at 15 mph, whereas the rest were moving at 12 mph. Moreover, the hypothetical hurricane tracks for the land- falling, the slanting and the crossing/exiting storms were spaced at 20-mile intervals along the Northeast Florida coast, with peak storm-surge landfalls occurring at five specific coastal points: Flagler Beach, Matanzas Inlet, St. Augustine, Jacksonville Beach, and Amelia Island. Tracks for the parallel- ing storms were spaced also at 20-mile intervals running along the shoreline, inland, and offshore. The various hurricane tracks are displayed in Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6, starting on page 11. _10- I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 (0- I I I d 10 I :::, o (::, c:l 15:@, I FIGURE 3 -- LANDFAU ING HURRICANE TRACKS SELECTED FOR MODELING 1 -11- I I I I I I I I I I I I I <) I I 1 .0 10, I =:p 0 C--y cl;l 1@1 I FIGURE 4 -- SLAKING HURRICANE . TRACKS SELECTED FOR MODELING 1 -12- I I I I I I j J j I I I I I I 1 0 1 1 1 10d I =;p 0 C.7 C:l 15:@, I FIGURE 5 -- PARALLELING HURRICANE TRACKS SELECTED FOR MODELING 1 -13- I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 0 1 1 1 d Of I =@ o C7 C:@' a III I FIGURE 5 -- PARALLELING HURRICANE TRACKS SELECTED FOR MODELING 1 -13- FIGURE 5 PARALIELING HURRICANE TRACKS SELECTED FOR MODELING -13- I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 0 1 1 1 df 00, I =;@ o 457 C:@% 45:1 I FIGURE 6 - CROSSING/EXITING HURRICANE TRACKS SELECTED FOR MODELING 1 -14- OUTPUT OF THE SPLASH MODEL. As stated hertofore, the SPLASH model gives storm-surge and wind predictions for the hypothetical hurricanes entered into the computer. The surge display is presented as a curve which shows peak storm-surge in terms of feet above mean sea level (M.S.L.). The surge printout does not include astronomical tide, the seasonal tide anomaly, or the wind waves riding on the surge. These factors are calculated separately and added to the computer-generated data to determine the storm tide. An example of a storm-surge printout is presented in Figure 7. To identify the peak surge expected at any point along the North- east Florida coast, individual surges are connected by a line to form an envel- ope of storm-surges for the entire coastal region. Figure 8 shows a storm-surge envelope for a Catefory 3 hurricane moving at 12 mph, approaching landfall at 90 degrees relative to the coast. The same Figure 8 shows how the height of the storm-surge increases as it comes ashore at different points up the coast north from Flagler Beach to Gernancina Beach. This increase in storm-surge height is due to the increased width of the continental shelf along the Atlantic Coast. The 60-foot contour (10-fathom curve) of the shelf extends from approximately 15 miles offshore at Flagler Beach to 20 miles offshore at Amelia Island. An example of the SPLASH model wind output is presented in Figure 9 on page 18, As shown in Figure 9, the hurricane wind envelope contains definite wind bands which decrease in intensity with corresponding distance form the hurricane center. In the SPLASH wind printout (Figure 9), the 40mph, 75 mph, and maxi- mum wind band - 155+ mph, have been sketched for display. Inasmuch as the storm is classified as a Category 5 hurricane. Winds in the Category 5 hurricane form a tight envelope and are generally con- sistent in intensity within fixed bands around the center or eye. These winds are sufficient to inflict considerable damage. Hurricanes of less than Cate- goty 5 wind intensity have less defined wind envelope. The propensity of the less severe hurricans to spawn tornadoes increase correspondingly while moving down the scale in intensity from Category 5 to Category 1. Wind gusts within the hurricane wind envelope and tornadoes in the gale force wind field ( in less severe hurricanes: oftentime cause more damage than the hurricane's sustained maximum winds. STORM-SURGE ANALYSES Using the SPLASH model at the National Hurricane Center, information was de- veloped (and printed out) to ananlyze and formulate data on peak storm-surge for all five categories of hurricanes, further broken down into landfalling, slant- ing (landfalling at 130 degrees to coastline), paralleling, and exiting.Tables 2 through 5 beginning on page 19 provide strom-surge analyses.Landfalling and slanting are analyzed for all five categories (of wind intensity), whereas paralleling and exiting are analyzed for categories one, two, and three. -15- S T C T S 15 1 2 F @j L L Om :.N C. S T C S I N S ITL @ T 1 @; F ci T C i I- T - - - - - - - - T H L,, 7 N T;. R I S L@; C A T -= D- - - - - - - - - - - - - -:- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LzS T" Tq L F T @!T 1 ;kLp -,C L-C S t tj Lp CLCS.'ST APF,@GACr;, .LL STt ::S.'- - - - - - - 0 7. JLKYLL :@T :7. 7 7:1 a 7. @7. )7. 7 4 j -7r-7 MAYP@M-T 4 4 41 7 4 7 47 (.4 4 --4 o7 7 1 71 7 t 3 4 - C r IT N L 04 57 4 7 5 7. 2 50. 4 5 -4 4: 0 5 1 17 77 4 1 -,4 .31 1 3 1 F L L C m 62 71 . i i I I - -- 1 1 Q 7 7 53 47 - ., i 5 i- 1- 4-7 z 4 7 . 1 34 7 7 54 4 7' A lz 1 7 i C -7 1c 1 4 6 T-0 --i -c- 7 i r, T 77, 7. 117. 1 1 7 . 2 . 1. 54. 47 5 . 1 3- . 1 3 1 . 7 N S, Y P, N A 7 . 1 41 1 1 1 1 4 F . 43. 44 71 45 . -7 . 5 . 4 6 . 4 7 3 . 00. 67. 4 'z 4 7 c c A V L 7 -4 4 4 1 71 . 4 C . 7 . 47. 7 . 47 . 1 . 4 7 L 2 . 44 . S 4 . -Z @: i . 4 -) - 7 . U 47. 5 ID . 4 3 7 . 7 . 4 31 44 . -4 4 1 . 47 . 5. 7 7 -7. 7 . 71 7. @4 L 7 7 7. 7 7 . _7, )' 7 7 77 7 -@7 4 -7. 4 7. FT PRC INL z7 . FiGURE 9 SKM kWEL WIND PRrWOUT FOR CATEGORY 5 HURRICANK L*BFALLIKI@ AT DAYTONA BEACH MMM Mao "I M MM M M" M TABLE 2 PRO,JECTED STORM SURGE HEIGHT LANDFALLING HURRICANE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES RELATIVE TO COASTLINE HEADING aO - 2600 TRUE Point of Hurricane Point of Surge Offshore Distance Landfall Landfall to 60-foot curve Surge Height in Feet (rounded) CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4 CAT 5 Daytona Beach Flagler Beach 15 miles 5 7 11 15 16 Flagler Beach Matanzas Inlet 16 miles 6 8 12 16 17 17 Matanzas Inlet St. Augustine 17 miles 6 8 12 16 St. Augustine Jacksonville Beach 18 miles 6 8 13 17 18 Jacksonville Beach Amelia Island 20 miles 7 9 14 19 20 TABLE, 3: PROJECTED STORM SURGE HEIGHT SLANTING CLAOFALLING) HURRICANE APPROACHING 1M DEGREES TO COASTLINE 3000 TRUE HEADING , Point of Hurricane Point of Surge Offshore Distance Surge Height in Feet (rounded) Landfall Landfall to 60-foot curve CAT I CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4 CAT 5 Daytona Beach Flagler Beach 15 miles 4 6 8 11 13 Flagler Beach Matanzas Inlet 16 miles 4 6 8 12 @3 CD Matanzas Inlet St. Augustine 17 miles 5 6 9 12 13 St. Augustine Jacksonville Beach 18 miles 5 7 10 13 15 Jacksonville Beach Amelia Island 20 miles 6 8 11 16 18 M-mmew "No M mmmmmm m mmmew Sam TABLE 4 PROJECTED STORM SURGE HEIGHT PARALLELING HURRICANE MOVING 20 MILES INLAND FROM SHORELINE Poi-nt of Hurricane Point of Surge Offshore Distance (20 miles inland) Landfall to 60-foot curve Surge Height in Feet (rounded) CAT I CAT 2 CAT 3 Daytona Beach Flagler Beach 15 miles 2 3 5 Flagler Beach Matanzas Inlet 16 miles 3 3 5 Matanzas Inlet St. Augustine 17 miles 3 3 5 St. Augustine Jacksonville Beach 18 miles 3 4 6 Jacksonville Beach Amelia Island 20 miles 4 5 7 PARALLELING HURRICANE MOVING ON SHORELINE Point of Hurricane Point of Surge Offshore Distance (moving on shoreline) Landfall to 60-foot curve Surge Height in Feet (rounded) CAT 1 CAT2 CAT 3 Daytona Beach Flagler Beach 15 miles 3 4 7 Flagler Beach Matanzas Inlet 16 miles 3 5 7 Matanzas Inlet St. Augustine 17 miles 3 5 7 St. Augustine Jacksonville Beach 18 miles 4 5 8 Jacksonville Beach Amelia Island 20 miles 4 6 9 =moms" aw""Mmm" we* F;a,@zm@ja:7 ms Hm mmE 25 PZI-Fnt- C4U Surge 'Ll"t's-zra :-@stanc-E E:tTzs -an, dl7p-],j Sarie t7: 7aa-t zf :aytSnl Reac"t --TLlgTeT 3,eaz,!: 7-@@7aZ EazleT 3aEz@t :n7zt K"itEnns :nTet, St. 7 77 as 't, zks-U` "a EsEth @@t as 7z F)ARP=l M'S HjlRIIRHC90;H @-zv:Az ;-L:=- Tes cffshzre,'j L a. n, d fa 7 1 to (EZ-fzzt curwa Sa- tn Feat @\Tmm E@f: C@@7 2 SEEC't F-TasTer 32ac,@ TE =F T T Pfa4l- r2aS 7-@7at 7,bt 7 ES M Z ,t7L t t t K T 7 Stil-1. kL-ustfne Jazksanu@TTa Beach 2 S jEckseflutlTe Beach k7m@ta :sTand 20 L71 I es 2 21 4 TABLE 5 PROJECTED STORM SURGE HEIGHT CROSSING HURRICANE EXITING COAST HEADING Oe TRUE Point of Hurricane Point of Surge Offshore Distance Exiting Landfall to 60-foot curve Surge Height in Feet (rounded) CAT I CAT 2 CAT 3 Daytona Beach Flagler Beach 15 miles 3 4 6 Flagler Beach Matanzas Inlet 16 miles 3 4 6 Matanzas Inlet St. Augustine 17 miles 3 4 6 St. Augustine Jacksonville Beach 18 miles 3 4 7 Jacksonville Beach Amelia Island 20 miles 4 5 8 Figures in the tables make it clear that the height of a storm-surge decreases in proportion to the increase of a hurricane's angle of approach. For example, a Category 3 hurricane approaching St. Augustine 90 degrees relative to the coastline will produce a storm-surge height of 13 feet at Jacksonville Beach. A Category 3 hurricane approaching 130 degrees will produce a storm-surge height of 10 feet at Jacksonville Beach. A paralleling Category 3 hurricane moving on shoreline at St. Augustine, however, will produce a storm-surge height of 8 feet at Jacksonville Beach. WIND ANALYSIS The movement of winds during a hurricane will have two detrimental effects in addition to creating a storm-surge. First, maximum winds and wind gusts in- flict considerable damage to many mobile homes, manufactured homes, and other structures of untested hurricane integrity. Second, the level of wind inten- sity affects the ability of a region to carry out hurricane evacuation proce- dures. Travel by automobile or larger vehicles becomes decidedly difficult and dangerous in winds greater than 40 m.p.h. The example of a hurricane's wind bands presented in FigurelO graphically shows the amount of time which is available to conduct an evacuation based upon the landfall of 40 and 75 m.p.h. wind bands for a hypothetical Category 3 hurricane-moving 90 degrees relative to the coastline. For simplicity of presentation, Figure 1.0 shows a hurricane whose center line lies 144'miles offshore and whose forward motion toward land- fall is 12 m.p.h. Calculation of the example shows that the center or "eye" ?f this hypothetical hurricane is 12 hours from landfall. This is significant inasmuch as Neil Frank, Ph.D., Executive Director of the National Hurricane Center has expressed that the Hurricane Center can give (with some level of assurance) up to 12 hours warning that a hurricane will make landfall at a particular location. Calculating movement-to-time for the hypothetical Category 3 hurricane shown in Figure Mit can be seen that the 40 m.p.h. band will-make landfall less than five hours after an official warning message is issued. Thereafter, evacuation will become dangerous and difficult. Similarly, Figure 10 on the next page shows that the 75 m.p.h. gale wind bank will make landfall eight hours after the National Hurricane Center issues the warning message. Based upon data produced by the SPLASH model, time before landfall has been calculated for the five levels of hurricane intensity (Categories I through 5), using a typical 12 m.p.h. forward motion of a hurricane landfalling 90 degrees relative to the coastline, as well as that for a hurricane with a 15 m.p.h. forward motion. The results of these categories are presented in Table 6 on page 26. -24- h. ;wi 40 M.P @i .h. 7 FIGURE 10- CATEGORY HURRICANE MOVING TOWARD ST. AUGUSTINE AT 12 M.P.H. -25- memo" awww"Mmawm@ M M TABLE 6 PRE-LANDFALL HAzARD TIME FOR HURRICANE WINDS LANDFALLING HURRICANE WITH FORWARD MOTION OF 12 M.P.H. 40 M.P.H. Winds 75 M.P.H. Winds Category of -Diameter of Available Time Diameter of AvailaSle Time Hurricane Wind Band (Miles) Before Landfall (Hours) Wind Band (Miles) Before Landfall (Hours), 1 144 6 48 10 2 168 5 72 9 3 192 4 96 8 4 264 2 120 7 5 228 2 120 7 LANDFALLING HURRICANE WITH FORWARD MOTION OF 1-5 [email protected]@ 40 M.P.H. Winds 75 M.P.H. Winds Category of Diameter of Available Time Diameter of Available Time Hurricane Wind Band (Miles) Before Landfall (Hours) Wind Band (Miles) Before Landfall (Hours) 1 144 5 48 8 2 168 4 72 7 3 192 3 96 3 4 264 1 120 2 5 228 2 120 2 The diameter of the wind band is dependent upon the category of hurricane. The variables of distance offshore and speed of forward motion may be adjusted to produce new estimates of avail- able time before landfall for various conditions using the simple equation: Available time before landfall = OHL - 3@ DW FM Where OHL Di.stance of Hurricane Center from landfall (Miles) FM Forward Motion of Storm (Miles-per-hour) DW Distance of Wind Band QWTER @ I MINERABILITY AMLYSIS Chapter I constituted an analysis of hurr@cane hazards which conceivably could impact Northeast Florida, with an emphasis an peak surge. Chapter 11 hereafter identifies land mass areas which could be at risk as affected by the storm- surge. METHOOOLJDGY Identification of the coastal areas which are vulnerable to a hurricane's storm- surge is necessary for determining those resIdents who must evacuate (from the coastal area). As shown in Chapter 7, the results from the SPLASH 11 model provided the data necessary to identify the vulnerable areas. Here in Chapter II, peak surge values produced by the SPLASH II model are compared to the elevations of land mass. A major limitation of SPLASH II, however, is the fact that values are produced only for the coast to the shoreline, but not inland. To compen- sate, a number of additional so:urces are utilized in producing the vulnerability analysis. These include: @ National Oceanographic Survey Storm Evacuation Maps a U.S. Geological Sorvey Topographic Maps @ Federal Emergency Management Administration Flood Insurance Rate Maps e Beach and Offshore Profile Analyses (topographic cross sections) conducted by the Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Laboratory, University of Florida c Aerial photography obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Corps of Engineers, and aerial photography prepared by the State Topographic Office, Florida Department of Transportation. To determine the worst case storm-surge values, the astronomical high -tide, the anomaly, and the wave set are added to the stillwater surge values (which were produced by SPLASH II). In that regard, Tables 7 through 10 present total storm-surge peaks for hypothetical hurricanes making landfall at five points along the Northeast Coast. Tables 11 through 14 present the same data for hypothetical paralleling hurricanes -moving directly over the shoreline. In addition, the storm-surge peaks are depicted graphically in Figures 11 and 12. Storm-surge inundation maps 1 through 11 found at the end of this chapter graphi- cally detail land mass along the Northeast Florida Coast which i's subject to worst case inundation by storm-surge, according to the categories of hurricane landfalling. Paralleling hurricanes in Categories 2 and 3 moving on shoreline will have the same inundation effect as a Category 2 landfalling hurricane (approaching 90 degrees relative to the coastline). 27 Figure 23 on page 35 is an index to the storm-surge inundation maps. It is noteworthy that the storm-surge inundation maps show an overall view of the level of inundation that could result anywhere along the entire Northeast Florida coast, depending on where a hurricane might landfall. In addition, flood prone areas also are depicted on each of the maps to point out the total hazardous picture in the event of a hurricane. The assumption here is that rains coupled with high tidal levels (not to be confused with total storm surge) will impede the movement of vehicles as roads will be flooded. Then too, property lying in flood prone areas is subject to damage. RECOMMENDATIONS In the way of mitigating the hazards of hurr-canes, it is recommended that local governments: 1. Take measures as necessary to preserve existing prim*ary dunes, to prohibit excavation or other ftnve'!@opment on the landward toe of any primary dune, to prohibit breaches of primary dunes, and to fill and stabilize existing breaches of primary dunes with vegetation. 2. Stipulate in the approval of developments located within a hurricane hazard (vulnerable) area that all title transfers to property shall be accompanied by a hazard disclosure statement that the property in the particular development is within a hurricane hazard area in which property is subject to damage and residents may be subject to an evacuation order in the event of a hurricane landfalling within 50 miles of the development. 28 90 DEGREES Have Storm- Surge (ARHI Anomaly Set Surge ft. f -pt. ft, ft. CAT 1 7 3 .5 .9 11 CAT 2 9 3 .5 1.2 14 CAT 3 14 3 .5 1.8 19 CAT 4 19 3 .5 2.4 25 CAT 5 20 3 .5 2.5 26 TABLE 8 PROJECTED STO?dMrSLjRGF EE'rGHT R JACKSONNV@LLE BRACH, Stillwater T@de Wave Storm-, Surge (YEW) Anomaly. Set Surge ft. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 6 3 .5 .8 10 CAT 2 8 3 .5 1.0 13 CAT 3 13 3 .5 1.7 18 CAT 4 17 3 .5 2.2 23 CAT 5 18 3 .5 2`3 24 29 TABLE 9 PROJECTED STORM-SURGE HEIGHT ST@ AUGUSTINE AND MATANZAS INLET LANDFAH ING HURRICANE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES Stillwater Tide Wave Storm- Surge (MHW) Anomaly Set Surge ft. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 6 2.5 .5 .8 10 CAT 2 8 2.5 .5 1.0 12 CAT 3 12 2.5 .5 1.6 17 CAT 4 16 2.5 .5 2.0 21 CAT 5 17 2.5 .5 2.2 22 TABLE 10 PROJECTED STORM-SURGE HEIGHT FLAGLER BEACH L.ANDFALLING HURRICANE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES Stillwater Tide Wave Storm- Surge (MHW) Anomaly Set Surge ft. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 5 2.5 .5 .7 9 CAT 2 7 2.5 .5 .9 11 CAT 3 11 2.5 .5 1.4 15 CAT 4 15 2.5 .5 1.9 20 CAT 5 16 2.5 .5 2.0 21 30 TABLE PROJECTED STORWSURGE HEIGHT AMELIA ISLAND PARALLELING HURRICANE @bvl% ON SHORELINE Stillwater Tide Wave Storm- Surge (MHW) Anomaly Set Surge ft. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 4 3.0 .5 .6 8 CAT 2 6 3.0 .5 .8 10 CAT 3 3 3.0 .5 1.2 14 TABLE 12 PROJECTED STORM-SURGE HEIGHT JAcKsowiLLEBEAcH PARALLELING HURRICANE F]OVING ON SHORELINE Stillwater Tide Wave Storm- Surg -(MHW) Anomaly Set Surge ft. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 4 3.0 .5 .6 8 CAT 2 5 3.0 .5 .7 9 CAT 3 8 3.0 .5 1.1 13 31 TABLE B PROJECTED STOW-SURGE HEIGHT ST. AUGUSTINE AND MATANZAS INLET PARALLELING HURRICANE MOVING ON SHORELINE Stillwater Tide Wave Storm- Surge (MHW) Ano-maly. Set Surge t. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 3 2.5 .5 .4 6 CAT 2 5 2.5 .5 .7 9 CAT 3 7 2.5 .5 .9 11 TABLE 14 PROJECTED STORM-SURGE HEIGHT FLAGLER BEACH PARALLELING HURRICANE %VING ON SHORELINE Stillwater Tide Wave Storm- Surge (MHW) Anomaly Set Surge ft. ft. ft. ft. ft. CAT 1 3 2.5 .5 .4 6 CAT 2 4 2.5 .5 .6 8 CAT 3 7 2.5 .5 .9 11 32 mm m m m m m m = = m m m M'm m m m FEET ABOVE FLAGLER MATANZAS SAINT JACKSONVILLE AMELIA CAT 5 MSL BEACH INLET AUGUSTINE BEACH ISLAND CAT 4 25- 20- -----CAT 3 15- CAT 2 CAT 1 10- 5- 0 20 40 60 80 100 MILES N. OF DAYTONA BEACH LL 4 "Lm"L, FIGUW- 11 LANDFALLING HURRICANE STOW-SURGE FEET ABOVE FLAGLER MATANZAS SAINT JACKSONVILLE AMELIA MSL BEACH INLET AUGUSTINE BEACH ISLAND 25- 20- 15- CfiT 3 10- CAT 2 CAT I 5. 0 L 20 40 60 80 100 MILES N. OF DAYTONA BEACH FIGURE 12 PARALLELING HURRICANE STOW-SURGE r 411 siAlsoo"A Beach NASSAU Uist COUNTY CAtLA14A% BAKER COUNTY ITLANTIC BEACH 4p 1 MACCLINNY JACKSONVILLE BEACH OUVAL COUNTY 0 ORANGE PARK 0 MIDDLEBURG* GREEN COVE NORTHEAST FLORIDA SPRING$- REGION 4 T. JOHN CLAY COUNTY COUNTY LAUGUST INE HAVINGS PALATR 40 41 PUTNAM COUNTY FiAOLEA COUNTY 440 some& FIGURE 1-3 INDE)( TO STORM-SURGE INUNDATION WS 35 r VULNERABLE AREA ST MARYS ENTRANCE LANDFALLING HURRICANE (STRIKING 90,* RE LATIVE TO COASTLINE) .. . . ..... . LEGEND CATEGORY I CATEGORY 2 13 CATEGORY 3 .4 & 5 FLOOD PRONE AREA F EACH Lu uj ATLANTIC VE U. 0 X 0 2000 4000 co 3 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING COU SADLER RD 4 ;6 MA FERNANDINA BEACH P $LAND FERNA MINA BEACH QW60AL AIRPORT 10 P co WA TE, WA VULNERABLE AREM LANDFALLING HURRICANE (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) AMERICA N BEACH LEGEND ...... Tv. CATEGORY I 110c CATEGORY 2 -An CATEGORY 3 4 & 5 M AMELIA ISLAND PLANTATION FLOOD PRONE AREA cp a Z 0 2000 4000 Af, -,z4SS 4 (j C Co NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING COUN 0 7,9 -t SOUND MAF X@ A POW VULNERABLE ARE LANDFALLING HURRICANE (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) 5 H LEGEND CATEGORY I FOR, 0 CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3,4&5 ISLAND 0 7. FLOOD PRONE AREA Ul 2000 4000 Der' ORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING COU NORTHEAST FL Si A, MAY ORT NAV ATIO MA z VULNERABLE AREA ATLANTIC BEACH L ANDFALL ING HURRICANE (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) Z y. LEGEND A LANTIC a D CATEGORY I X NEPTUNE BEACH cp CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3.4 & 5 0 0 0 JACKS NVILLE'..'.-.-".: fn 3p FLOOD PRONE AREA a'. MONVIL E BEM'" 'BEA CH BLVD m Cc 0 2000 4000 0 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING CO r'J T LUMM cy DUVAL %,V ST JOHNS C III fil Je %,K W %X1 MA PONTE VEDRA BEACH j X. R 21 3 ..7 VULNERABLE A REP LANDFALLING HURRICAN (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) 0 J LEGEND V CATEGORY I j z SA GRASS x >0 CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3, 4 5 0 FLOOD PROME AREA 3 MICKLER LANDING 2000 4000 T NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING CO Iq % S '17 MA 0 r 0 VULNERABLE AREA LANDFALLING HURRICAN X (STRIKING 90* RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) t m LEGEND TEGORY I X CA Aa CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3,4 & 5 FLOOD PRONE AREA 0 2000 4000 I'D SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING CO A: M A Al 0 7 0 m T. VULNERABLE AREI ST'A60us ..AIRP 0 X LANDFALLING HURRICAN (STRIKING 90* RELATIVE TO COASTLINE LEGEND U CATEGORY I % 0 CATEGORY 2 0 0 0 CATEGORY 3, 4 & 5 p FLOOD PRONE AREA VILANO BEACH S R 16 R A Mq* *I Lo 7 0 2000 4000 ST AtXG I NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING Co AFA S R 214 7 gp MA cb z ca AUGUSTINE BEACH T r VULNERABLE AREP LANDFALUNG HURRICAN (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) 001 LEGEND CATEGORY I A 0111. CATEGORY 2 A CATEGORY 3 4 & 5 FLOOD PRONE AREA 1J. A 7 I LER BEACH Q0 2000 4000 0 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING CO CRESCENT BEACH -7 oo 0 S R 206 L aTm M co 7, VULNERABLE AREA 7A LANDFALLING HURRICANE MATANZASINLET (STRIKING 90* RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) LEGEND SUMMER HAVEN CATEGORY I R CATEGORY 2 -4 ..... CATEGORY 8 4 & 5 ir FLOOD PRONE AREA 0 MARINELAND 691 (p 0 2YO 4000 Jff .4 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING COU X, 7 A. U. t MA J. % 'FA 7 'F (o -A iA VULNERABLE ARE LANDFALLING HURRICA@ (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE p MEMEND CATEGORY I R A CATEGORY 2 0 CATEGORY 3, 4 5 J: :'A FLOOD PRONE AREA A 0 7 J. PAINTERS HILL 0 2000 4000 vo 7 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING C 7 13EVERLY BEACH Af, MAF A: Qci) R, @a. FLAGLER BEACH IX . ..... VULNERABLE AREI LANDFALLING HURRICAN (STRIKING 90' RELATIVE TO COASTLINE) LEGEND CATEGORY I e' CATEGORY 2 tp CATEGORY 3. 4 5 FLOOD PRONE AREA s C3 a 0 20 4000 01 D DIXIE HIGHWAY 7 7 40 NORTHEAST FLORIDA REGIONAL PLANNING CC Ir \ 10. A ojo 0io 0 i MA POPUIATION W DELLING UNITS CHAPTER III AT RISK The Vulnerability Analysis included in foregoing Chapter II identified coastal areas which are vulnerable to a hurricane storm-surge. This chapter highlights the threatened population living along the coastli'ne, living in mobile homes, and living in areas threatened by freshwater flooding. Dwelling units at risk are described accordingly. POPULATION AT RISK The coastal population at risk in the region is that which is located mainly east of the Intracoastal Waterway. However, those people living along the Intracoastal Waterway, or tributaries thereof, particularly in Duval, St. Johns and Flagler Counties, are also included. For purposes of this Plan, mobile home dwellers at risk include those living west of the Intracoastal Waterway in all seven counties of Northeast Florida. Then too, people living along the St. Johns River and its tributaries must not be overlooked, particularly in view of the history of Hurricane Dora. Population figures for the coastal area are found in Table 15, whereas figures for mobile home dwellers are in Table 16. See pages 38 and 39, COASTAL POPULATION-AT-RISK Nassau County, All residents of Amelia Island, including the City of Fernandina Beach, represent the population at risk in Nassau County. The 1980 census popu- lation of 10,840 is estimated to have increased to 13,330 by mid-1983. Of these, some 3,500 people or 26 percent are endangered by the potential surge emanating from a worst case Category V landfalling hurri'cane. However, the entire population on Amelia Island is endangered by all hurricanes, particularly from their wind effects. All effects (surge, wind, and rain) of hurricanes of all categories moving in any direction will be dangerous to people living along the beachfront, particularly around Atlantic Avenue and north of Atlantic Avenue. Duval County. The 1983 coastal at-risk population in Duval County is estimated at 45,170. This compares to the 1980 census population of 42,200. In 1980, about three percent of the at-risk population, 1,318 people, lived in the area west of the Intracoastal Waterway and east of Pablo Road. Consequently, 97 percent of the 1983 estimated 45,650 people living on the coast between the ocean and the Intracoastal Waterway will be endangered by a worst case Category V landfalling hurricane. Those living immediately west of the Intracoastal Waterway would be endangered by wind, and rain, and by fresh water flooding emanating from the Intracoastal Waterway. All of the coastal area of Duval County is subject to heavy wind and surge caused by Categories III, IV and V landfolling hurricanes. Hurricanes of all categories will be decidedly dangerous to those residents living close to the beaches as well as in the Mayport fishing village. 36 St. Johns County. In 1980, 18,760 people lived in the coastal area who were at risk in case of a worst case Cat,agory V hurricane. By 1983, growth in these areas raises the estimate of the endangered population to 22,810 people. Those living in the St. Augustine beaches and Matanzas Inlet areas would be endangered due to the runout/aftermath of a surge, particularly from Cate- gories III, IV, and V landfalling hurricanes. However, hurricanes even in the lower categories of I and II, whether landfalling, paralleling, or exit- ing, will be dangerous to all beach residents. People ltving tn the City of St. Augusting particularly close i[.o the bay front and along the Matanzas River will be confronted with the dangers posed-by all categories of hurri- canes. The potential for flooding will-also endanger residents in low lying areas west of the San Sebastian River. Flagler County. In 1980, an estimated 4,800 people lived in the zone of dan- ger from the effects of a worst case Category V landfalling hurricane. Of the 4,800, some 1,840, almost 40 percent, were living in the Palm Coast canal areas west of the Intracoastal Waterway. Growth by 1983 results in an esti- mated 6,190 residents who would be in danger if a worst case Category V hurricane should landfall. Of the 6,190, 2,320 or more live in the Palm Coast canal areas west of the Intracoastal Waterway. The Marineland area would be endangered by all categories of hurricanes. Fortunately, the coastal area eleva,tion along thb beach stretching south from Painters Hill to Volusia County is relatively high. Consequently, the City of Flagler Beach could withstand the surge produced by even a Category III worst case landfall- ing hurricane. That notwithstanding, the wind effects resulting from all categories of hurricanes would endanger all the coastal population, especially those who live in mobile homes. MOBILE HOME POPULATION-AT-RISK Mobile homes have become an increasing popular housing type over the past decade due both to more attractive manufactured housing products and the economic effects of heightening construction and land cost&, coupled with high mortgage interest rates. In 1970, mobile homes comprised 5.4 percent of the dwelling units in the region. By 1980, thts proportion ros-e to 9,4 U ercent of the housing stock, a 152 percent increase in units siInce 1970 rom 11,830 to 29,780 units). This compares to a 38 percent increase in site-built housing in the decade. The trend of growth in the number of mo- bile homes and increase in their share of the housing stock can be presumed to carry through the 1980's, given continuance of the causal conditions noted above. Nearly two-thirds, 11,330, of the mobile homes added in the past decade were placed in the four coastal counties, for a 1980 total count to 20,250 mobile homes, of which about 2,800 were located in the coastal at-risk storm surge/ flood prone zone. 'It is estimated that 450 additional mobile homes . had been added along the coast by mid-1983. Using a conservative multiplier of 2.0 persons-per-mobile home household, the proportion of mobile home resi- dents in the at-risk population is about 7.4 perc6nt or 6,500 among the 87,980 persons living in the endangered zone in mid-1983, 37 4 1 i ty Because of their susceptib, to high winds, the National Weather Service recommends that all mobile home residents be evacuated to more secure shelter facilities when hurricane force winds are expected. Therefore, the popula- tion in mobile homes in the remainder of the Region should be considered an element of the at-risk population. This is esti*mated at 66,220 mobile home residents outside the coastal at-risk zone in mid-1983, added to the 6,500 within the zone, for a total of 70,720 mobile home residents in the Region. TABLE 15 COASTAL POPULATION AT RxSK 1980 Census 1983 Estimate NASSAU 10,840 13,330 DUVAL 42,200 45,650 ST. JOHNS 18,760 22,810 FLAGLER 4,800 6,190 Total Persons 76,600 87,980 COASTAL HOUSING AT RISK 1980 Census 1983 Estimate NASSAU 5,230 6,460 DUVAL 16,990 18,510 ST. JOHNS 9,450 11,800 FLAGLER 3,130 3,980 Total Units 34,800 40,750 38 TABLE 16 %BILE HOME POPULATION AT RISK MID-1983 In Coastal Outside Coastal County Risk Zone- Risk Zone TOTAL Baker ._O_ 1,960 1,960 Clay -0- 7,500 7,500 Duval 3,800 26,030 29,830 Flagler 1,140 890 2,030 Nassau 720 7,590 8,310 Putnam -0- 13,506 13,506 St. Johns 840 6,740 7,580 Region 6,500 66,220 70,720 Source: Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council Methodology: 1980 Census mobile home count updated by using proportion of mobile homes added per county 1970-1980 in relation to single @nd multifamily units added, applied to residential construct- ion permits issued per county January 1980 through June 1983. Population estimated at 2.0 persons per mobile home. 39 CHAPTER IV ROADWAY INUNDATION ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION Safe evacuation is predicated upon the movement of vehicles over critically low points on evacuation routes prior to the occurrence of surge induced as well as fresh water induced road blockages. Such blockages can happen prior to the arrival of the eye of a hurricane. The purpose of this chapter, therefore, is to identify points or segments of low-lying coastal roadways and low bridge approcahes on barrier islands and evacuation routes leading from barrier islands. Such data are needed to determine how soon evacuation would have to be completed prior to road- way inundation by storm surge as well as by flooding (not associated with storm surge). METHODOLOGY In conducting the analysis, evacuation routes leading from barrier islands on the coasts of Nassau, Duval, St. Johns, and Flagler Counties were identi- fied. Centerline elevations as available were obtained from microfilm held in files in the Deland and Lake City district offices of Florida's Department of Transportation. Gaps in that data were filled in from spot elevation information taken from storm evacuation maps prepared by the U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and from quadrangle (contour) maps published by the U. S. Geological Survey. Peak storm surge from the SPLASH II mathematical model (shown in Chapter III) for landfall- ing hurricanes were compared against the centerline elevations. Furthermore, flood prone data also were compared. The foregoing data are incorporated in tables 17 through 33 beginning on the next Page, which tables are groUPed by county, begi-nntng Vith Nassau. Each table, identified by-the respective evacuation routia,, is broken down by' centerli,ne elevations, vulnerability analysis data, and location/di'stance data. NASSAU COUNTY Specific roads and highways on Amelia Island are marked with signs (CD-1) as evacuation routes. For instance, people living on North Fletcher Avenue in an evacuation would travel south to Atlantic Avenue, west on Atlantic Avenue to 14th Street, south on 14th Street to State Road A-1-A, then west on A-1-A across the Intracoastal Waterway and west. Centerline elevations for that particular route are listed in the table which follows. 40 I *ABLE 17 NORTH Fu7-_cvER AvEmjE - AaAwic AvF-NUE - 14TH S-MEET - STAFE RoAD A-1-A Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 8.00 Cat. I North Fletcher Avenue I mile N. of Atlantic Avenue 8.86 Cat. 1 3,000 feet N. of Atlantic Avenue 15.75 Cat. 3 Intersection: A-1-A/Fletcher Avenue 19.74 Cat. 4 500 feet W. on Atlantic Avenue 12.75 Cat. 4 1,000 5.00 Cat. 4 and 1,500 Flood Prone 3.67 2,000 5.79 2,500 15.70 Cat. 4 3,000 26-81 3,500 20.80 4,000 19.38 4,500 19.14 5,000 25.67 Intersection: Atlantic Avenue and South 14th 25.00 2,000 feet S. on South 14th Street 25.00 3,000 25.00 4,000 17.00 7,000 16.34 Five Points Intersection/A-1-A 12.63 Flood Prone On A-1-A, 1,000 feet W. of Five Points Intersection 10.83 1,500 feet W. of Five Points Inter. 9.00 It 1,000 feet E. of Shave Bridge 8.00 11 1,500 feet W. of Shave Bridge 9.00 It 2,500 11 13.00 Intersection: A-!-A and County Road 107 20.00 Intersection: A-1-A and Black Rock Road A second important evacuation route begins at the south end of Amelia Island, extends north on A-1-A to County Road 105A, then continues north along Amelia Island Parkway to A-1-A, left on A-1-A to Shave Bridge'and points west. Centerline elevations are summarized on the following page. 41 TABi F: 18 STATE ROAD A-1-A ON AMELIA ISLAND FROM SOUTH To NORTH Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 8.00 Flood Prone At S. end of Amelia Island on A-1-A, 3,000 feet N.E. of Nassau Sound bridge. 8.00 1-1, miles N. of Nassau Sound bridge on A-1-A. 15.00 Intersection: A-1-A and Lewis Street 18.00 Intersection: A-1-A and Gerbing Road 15.00 Intersection: A-1-A and Phillips Manor Road 16.00 Intersection: Amelia Island Parkway and Via del Ray 14.00 Intersection: Amelia Island Parkway and Amelia Road 10.00 Intersection: Amelia Island Parkway and A-1-A Other connections from the beaches to A-1-A include Sadler Road, which has centerline elevations ranging from 16 to 22 feet, and Bill Melton Drive, which has centerline elevations ranging from an estimated 15 feet to 26 feet. State Road 105 stretching along the seacoast from Atlantic Avenue south to Amelia Island Parkway has centerline elevations ranging from 10 one south of Atlantic Avenue to 25 feet three miles south of Atlantic Avenue. See Storm Surge Inundation Maps I and 2 in Chapter II. 42 DUVAL COUNTY Major evacuation routes leading from the beaches to points west in Duval County are Hecksher Drive on the north side of the St. Johns River, and Atlantic Boulevard, Beach Boulevard, and J. Turner Butler Boulevard on the south side of the St. Johns River. TABLE 19 HEcKSHER DRIVE FRom FORT GEORGE INLET To BRowm RIVER Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 7.00 Cat. 1 and 2/5 mile S.W. Fort George Inlet Flood Prone 7.00 Ferry entrance 9.00 1 mile S.W. ferry entrance 11.00 Cat.3 1/5 mile S.E. Sisters Creek 6.00 Flood Prone 1 mile W. Sisters Creek 6.00 It 1 mile E. Clapboard Creek 6.00 N.W. approach Clapboard Creek 8.00 7/10 mile N.W. Clapboard Creek 7.00 1.5 mile E. Dunn Creek 3.90 E. Approach Dunn Creek 5.80 300 feet W. Dunn Creek 3.30 It 900 It 7.60 11 1500 11 3.70 2100 2.50 2700 4.80 3300 6.40 3900 11.38 E. approach Broward River bridge 11.50 W. approach Broward River bridge 19.00 1 mile W. of Broward River bridge 43 TABLE 20 ATLANTIC BouLEvARD FRom 2ND STREET TO INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 12.62 Cat. 2 At beaches, 100 ft. E. of 2nd Street 12.65 Intersection, 2nd Street 12.77 500 feet. W. of 2nd Street 11.82 Cat. 3 1,000 It 10.86 1,500 11.09 2,500 10.96 2,500 11.50 3,000 12.91 3,500 12.33 4,000 9.87 4,500 8.18 Cat. 3 and 5,000 (1 mile W. of ocean) Flood Prone 8.67 11 5,500 feet W. of 2nd Street 10.75 Cat. 3 6,000 12.45 It 6,500 12.86 7,000 12.44 7,500 10.60 8,000 6.83 Cat. 3 and Flood Prone 8,500 6.22 91000 6.21 9,500 6.16 10,000 6.31 10,500 6.37 11,000 6.59 11,500 10.76 E. approach to bridge 14.00 3,000 feet. w. of Intracoastal Waterway 44 TABLE 21 BEAoi BouLEVAM FROM SEMALL TO INTRACOASTAL WATEMAY AND WEST Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 12.0 Cat. 2 and Bulkhead (.seawall) Flood Prone 12.8 It 1st Street 11.7 it 400 feet W. of Ist Street 12.2 11 800 it 11.9 1,200 13.0 1,600 13.9 Cat. 3 2,000 15.4 11 2,500 16.6 It 3,000 17.1 It 3,500 18.3 Cat-.-4 4,000 18.3 [1 4,500 19.7 It 5,000 11 19.4 It 5,500 11 16.2 6,000 It 10.7 6,500 11 8.5 7,000 It 7.5 7,500 11 7.0 It 3,000 feet E. of Intracoastal Waterway 14-00 It E. approach to bridge 12.00 W. approach to bridge 7.00 Flood Prone 4,000 feet W. of Intracoastal Waterway 11.00 1 mile W. of Intracoastal Waterway 18.00 1-, miles W. of Intracoastal Waterway 45 22 J@ -K;M@ER &%-LER, 30J@-EYAM FROM STAVE Rc,,AjI A-.14A To PABLO CREEK Center"ine Vulnerab-@Iity Elevations Analysis IL-ocation/Distance (f eet T- 11.8 Cat. 3 and End of ramps at SR A-1-A 27.50 Flood Prone 1,000 ft. W. of A-1-A 33.19 2,000 Ca, 16.00 5 3,000 1.3.00 4,000 1.2.90 5,000 13.7.0 6,000 1-1.46 7,000 12.72 8,000 11.86 E. approach to Pablo Creek bridge 72.93 Pablo Creek bridge 12.00 W. approach to Pablo Creek bridge Among connecting routes on the coast south of the St. Johns River are Mayport Road leading from the Mayport Naval Station to Atlantic Boulevard and State Road A-1-A from the Mayport fishing village to Mayport Road. i'ABLF 9'@ KAYPoRT !ROAD-. MAYPoRT NAvAi- S,,A-txoi,4 -io ATLAWIC BOULEVARD Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 7.20 Cat. 3 Naval Station Gate 7.18 Cat. 5 1,000 feet S. of Gate 7.10 Intersection: Mayport Road and Wonderwood Drive 7.04 2,000 feet S. of Gate 8.15 3,000 if 9.50 4,000 11 12.45 if 1 mile S. of Gate 15.47 11 2 miles it 1 12.95 Cat. 3 3 miles it 12.47 If Intersection: Mayport Road and Atlantic Boulevard 46 Only four centerline elevatilons are available for State Road A-1-A which connects the Mayport Fishing Village with Mayport Road. They are listed as follow: Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet@_ 4.38 Cat. 3 and 2,250 feet N. of Sherman Creek Flood Prone 7.00 11 500 feet S. of Sherman Creek 9.00 Cat. 5 Intersection: A-1-A and Wonderwood Drive 15.00 Intersection: A-1-A and Mayport Road State Road A-1-A leading along the coasL north from the St. Johns County line to St. Augustine Road at Jacksonville Beach has centerline elevations ranginq from 9.6 feet to 11.66 feet. Farther-north t@at same State Road has center- line elevations which are 9 feet one-half mile south of Beach Boulevard, 10 feet one-half mile north of Beach Boulevard, and 12 feet one-half mile south of Atlantic Boulevard. See Storm Surge Inundation Map 4 for vulnerability of this route. In addition to Hecksher Drive on the north side of the St. Johns River are the roads leading to and from the Black Hammock area, beginning with Sawpi't Road. Sawpit Road Co nnects into Cedar Point Road, thence into New Berlin Road. On Sawpit Road, centerline elevations range from 10 to 11 feet. The elevation is 9 feet where Sawpit Road intersects with Cedar Point Road. Centerline eleva- tion on Cedar Point Road 1.2 miles west of the intersection i's 10 feet, whereas it is 5 feet three miles west of the intersecti,on (with Sawpit Road). This appears to be the lowest point on that particular evacuation route. Thereafter, centerline elevations on Cedar Point Road range from 11 to 16 feet. Elevatfons on New Berlin Road into which Cedar Point Road connects are 19 to 20 feet. See Storm Surge Inundation Map 3 for vulnerability analysis. ST. JOHNS COUNTY The coastal area of St. Johns County is analyzed geographically in three sec- tors, the north around Ponte Vedra, the central around St. Augustine, and the south around Crescent Beach. Primary evacuation routes in the northern sector include State Road 210 from State Road A-!-A to the Intracoastal Waterway, and southwest; State Road 210A from A-1-A to the Intracoastal Waterway, and southwest; south on A-1-A; and south on State Road 203. Centerline elevations are summarized in the tables which follow: 47 TABLE 24 STATE ROAD A-1-A Mom DuvAL CouNTY LINE SouTH TO STATE ROAD 210 Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 12.72 Cat. 3 Duval County Line 16.45 1/2 mile S. of Duval County Line 16.25 2 miles It 15.45 3 miles 14.05 Cat. 5 4 miles 12.76 Intersection with SR 210 TABLE 25 STATE ROAD 21QA FROM STATE ROAD A-1-A To INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance Uee-t@- 16.00 Cat. 5 Intersection with A-1-A 5.00 Cat. 5 and Flood Prone 2/5 mi'le W. of SR A-1-A 6.00 1-1/5 mile SX of SR A-1-A 7.00 2 miles SW of SR A4-A 7.00 Flood Prone 4 miles SW of SR A-1-A 8.00 It 5.5 miles SW of SR A-1-A 6.00 It Intersection with SR 210 near bridge TA13LE 26 STATE ROAD 210 FROM SR A-1-A TO INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 12.76 Flood Prone Intersection with A-1-A 8.00 Palm Valley 8.00 2 miles S. of Palm Valley 6.00 it Intersection with SR 210A near bridge 48 Highest centerline elevation on State Road 203 (which goes between the county line and A-1-A, along the shoreline) is 20 feet. Otherwise, ele- vations on that particular route generally range from 11 to 13 feet. Centerline elevations on A-1-A from State Road 210 to Vilano Beach range from 8 feet to 21 feet. They are summarized down to South Ponte Vedra Beach on the table which follows: TABLE 27 STATE ROAD A-1-A FRom 210 TO SOUTH PoNTE VEDRA BEACH Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 12.00 Intersection A-1-A and 210 13.00 11-, mile S of 210 11.00 Flood Prone 1 mile S. of Mickler Landing 10.00 3 miles S. of Mickler Landing 9.00 5 miles 16.00 61-2 miles 13.00 11-2 miles N. of South Ponte Vedra Beach In the St. Augustine area, the foregoing A-1-A route continues from South Ponte Vedra Beach to Vilano Beach, then across the Vilano Bridge into the City of St. Augustine. TABi F 28 STATE ROAD A-1-A FROM SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO CITY OF ST. AUGUSTINE Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 14.00 Cat. 3 South Ponte Vedra Beach 15.00 to 1-1, miles S. of South Ponte Vedra Beach 15.00 3 miles 21.00 3 miles N. of St. Augustine Inlet 13.00 Cat. 3 and Flood Prone I mile 11 8.00 S. end of Vilano Beach. 8.00 Approaches to Vi'lano Beach 8.00 Cat. 1 and Flood Prone In Citrof St. Augustine 49 Routes inside City of St. Augustine have centerline elevation generally ranging from 5 to 10 feet. The lowest point, five feet, is depicted on King Street abbut 1,000 feet west of US-1 and also east of the San Sebastian River. Near the fort, Castillo de San Marco, centerline elevation for San Marco Avenue is approximately 7 feet. King Street's elevation is an estimated 8 feet in the area near the County Courthouse. Approaches to the US-1 bridge over the San Sebastian River are 9.7 feet. Immediately south of the City of St. Augustine, two evacuation routes lead from Anastasia Island. The major route is State Road 312 which connects from St. Augustine Beach directly west to US-1 across the Matanzas River. Centerline elevations for SR-312 are listed as follow: TA&E 29 STATE RoAD 312 FROM SR A-1-A WEsT To US-1 Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 8.00 Cat. I Intersection: SR 312/SR A-1-A 10.22 Cat. 5 3,000 feet W. of SR A-1-A 11.50 It 3,500 it 12.71 It 4,000 It 17.33 4,500 17.71 5,000 17.00 Intersection with SR 3 10.00 Cat. 5 and Flood Prone 1,000 feet W. of SR 3 12.66 It It 3,000 11.66 to It 4,000 10.66 It it 5,000 10.66 It 11 7,000 11.13 It It It E. bridge approach 14.10 Flood Prone W. briAge approach 9.37 2,500 feet E. of US-1 12.95 2,000 feet E. of US-1 i6.95 1,500 feet E. of US-1 21.39 Intersection with US-1 The second important route is State Road A-1-A stretching from the inter- section of State Raod 3 northwest to the Bridge of Lions. Centerline elevation on Anastasia Island at the limits of the City of St. Augustine is 15.3 feet. At the intersection at SR 3, it is 11 feet. State Road 3 connects with both of these major evacuation routes. Centerline elevations for SR-3 ranges from 11 to 17 feet. Centerl i ne el evati--on.s for that stretch of A-1-A leading from SR-3 and hugging the shoreline begins with 7.83 feet one mile south of St. Augustine's city limits, then drops to 6.85 feet at a point near the beach shoreline. Along the beach, @enterline elevations range from 7 to 10 feet, then rise to 13 feet where A-I-A reconnects with SR-3 further south. For vulnerability, see Surge Inundation Maps 7 and 8. 50 People living in the southern sector of the coast anywhere along State Road A-1-A south of State Road 3 will be encouraged to drive to State Road 206 then west to US-1. Centerline elevations for State Road 206 range from 7 feet immediately west of the brfdge to at least 26 feet at the intersection with US-!. The intersection at State Road A-1-A has an elevatipm of 8 feet, Centerline elevations for State Road A-1-A beginning at SR-3 and ending at Marineland are li'sted as follow: TABL-&: 30 STATE RoAD A-1-A FRC.M SR 3 YO WXNEUM Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 13.00 Cat. 5 Intersection: A-1-A and SR-3 8.00 Flood Prone 2 miles N. of Crescent Beach 7.00 it 1-1, miles 11 11 8.00 Intersection: A-1-A and SR 206 6.00 2 miles S. of Crescent Beach 8.00 1 mile N. of Matanzas Inlet 10.53 Cat. 1 and Flood Prone N. approach to Matanzas Inlet bridge 9.63 It It S. approach It is 8.00 2 miles S. of Matanzas Inlet 7.38 Flagler County line FLAGLER CW9Y The main evacuation route leading inland from the coast is described as follows: TABLE 31 STATE RoAD 100 FRom FLAGLER BEACH WEST TO BUNNELL Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance Tf-e e_tT 18.57 Cat. 4 Intersection with SR A-1-A 10.68 it 500 feet W. of A-1-A 8.00 11000 8.00 2,000 8.00 E. bridge approach 8.00 Flood Prone W. bridge approach i5.00 2,000 ft. W. of Intracoastal Waterway 13.96 1 mile W. of Intracoastal Waterway 13.00 6,000 feet W. of bridge TABLE 311 (COiVHNU1,EDj Centerli,ne Vulnerability Elevations -Anaiysis Locetion/Distance (feet) 12.00 Flood Prone 7,000 feet W. of bridge 17.56 10,000 11 21.44 2 mfles W. of Intracoastal Waterway 26.60 p 27.35 4 it 28.00 5 27.50 6 23.50 7 20.08 Intersection with US-! The connecting route from Marineland south on State Road A-1-A to Flagler Beach is described in the following table. TA83-9: 32 STATE ROAD AA-A FROM ftMELAKD SOUM-1 TO SR ICD Centerline Vulnerability Elevations Analysis Location/Distance (feet) 7@38 Cat. I and Flood Prone At St. Johns County line 9,19 1 mile S. of County line 8.35 Cat. 3 2 7@47 11 3 M6 Cat. 4 4 10.85 11 5 10.97 6 12.20 7 15A5 8 11.68 Cat. 3 9 9.50 Cat. 2 10 9.41 11 11 17.67 Cat. 4 12 21.84 Cat. 5 14 20.68 15 18.57 intersection with SR-100 Centerline elevation on State Road A-1-A connecting from the.:Volusia County line north to Flagler Beach appears to be a constant 19 feet. It would take the surge of a Category 5 landfalling hurricane (.striki-nC,, 90 degrees relative to coastline) to overwhelm this route. 52 CHAPTER V BEHAVIORAL SURVEY INTRODUCTION Equally as important as the hazard analysis, the vulnerability analysis, the roadway inundation analysis , and the deifneatfur of the threatened population and dwelling units, are the behavioral, tendencies of the population at risk. It was necessary, therefore, to ascertain the behavioral tendencies of the population at risk I) to quanify their evacuation time, 2) to determine their region-wide and county-wide demand on roadway sepacities, and 3) to develop projections for the number of public shelters which will be required under hurricane-related emergency situations. A survey was conducted during the months of July, August, and September 1983. The following behavioral character- istics were addressed: When the threatened population would leave their residences pursuant to an evacuation order; The number of vehicles that the threatened households would utilize for evacuation; The number of residents who would require public transportation or other assistance if required to evacuate; The pre-planned destinations of the population at risk; and The general hurricane experience of the population at risk. METHODOLOGY As in the process of conducting most surveys, three major components consti- tuted the main underpinnings of the behavioral survey. They were designing of the survey questionnaire, selecting of the survey target areas, and ad- ministering of the survey. Then too, the process also included tabulating the responses and analyzing the results. QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN The behavioral survey questionnaire form, a data collection instrument, ad- dressed the major behavioral issues associated with hurricane evacuation. These included evacuation time, vehicle use, special transportation needs, planned destinations and routes, and prior hurricane experience. 53 A copy of the survey questionaire form is enclosed as APPENDIX C. Its composi- tion was based on a hybrid of survey questionaires completed previously by Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, and Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council. SURVEY TARGET AREAS Survey target areas in order of priority were households along the sea coasts of Duval, Flagler, Nassau, and St. Johns Counties; mobile home households in six counties of Northest Florida; and selected households along banks of the St. Johns River and its tributaries in Clay and Duval Counties. Of a total 2,000 interviews attempted, 1,588 were completed, from which 1,312 samples were selected based upon completion of the interviews. Of the 1,312 samples, 688 were from among households along the sea coasts of Duval, Flagler, Nassau, and St. Johns Counties. Five hundred fourteen (514) were from mobile home households in the six counties of Clay, Duval, Flagler, Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns. Those mobile home households targeted in the coastal counties were west of the Intracoastal Waterway. Included in the households on the banks of the St. Johns River and its tribututaries were those in Duval County along Heckscher Drive, in Riverside, and in the Venetia/Ortega area. In Clay County, certain households were selected around Doctors Lake, along the St. Johns River, and in the Black Creeek area. As far as possible, the selection of most households was based upon the 1980 Census divisions (of households). For instance, 48 percent of the households east of the Intracoastal Waterway were in Duval County. Accordingly, at least 48 percent of the households targeted in the four county coastal area were in Duval County. Distribution of Sample Number of Completed County/Area Interviews Nassau County Coastal area 49 Mobile homes* 11 Duval County Coastal area 432 Heckcher Drive 40 Riverside/Ortega 18 Mobile Homes 199 St. Johns County Ponte Vedra Beach 33 Vilano 26 City of St. Augustine 36 St. Augustine Beach and points south 97 Mobile homes* 68 *Located west of the Intracoastal Waterway. D4str2,but-!'on of Sample (continued Completed County/Area Interviews Flagler Beach Coastal area 15 Clay County Waterfront 52 Mobile homes 60 Putnam County Mobile homes 176 ADMINISTRATION OF SURVEY Non-profit corporations here in Northeast Florida were contracted to conduct the survey. They did so by telephone from July 1, 1`983 to August 31, 1983, using the aforementioned behavioral survey questionnaire form. The non-profit corporations included were: Association for Retarded Citizens, Clay, Inc.; Association for Retarded Citizens of Putnam County, Inc.; Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Nassau County, Inc.; Flagler County Council on Aging, Inc.; Jacksonville League of Woman Voters, Inc.; and St. Johns County Council on Aging, Inc. The Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council assisted volunteers of these corporations in selecting blocks of addresses and telephone numbers and provided them with the survey ques- tionnaires. Pre-printed postcards were mailed to prospective respondents at least three days in advance of their receiving a telephone call. Volunteers made up to four tele- phone call backs in attempting to reach those prospective respondents who were not at home. COMPILATION Upon completion of the survey, the Northeast Florida Chapter of the American Red Cross was contracted to compile the data and reduce the data onto sheets formatted specifically for analytical purposes. One staff members and a large number of volunteers of that Chapter completed this task in September 1983. The analysis and findings of the Behavioral Survey follow hereafter, fi,rst on a county-wi-de basis, and second on a region-wide bas4s. In addi'tion, county-wi'de responses are analyzed in absolute figures. 55 Response Analysis I. Do you 11ve In a: E E :@j (d .-3 Nas_sau County Coastal Arce-, 60% 12 % 20% 8% Mobile homes* 111.00% Duval County Coastal Aiea 72% 15% 6% 4% 3% Hecksher DrIve 93% 5% 2% Ri verf rop.-L', NO% Mobile h(%-.-nas* ".00% St. Johns clo!@@. Ponte Vfz%drp- 9.4% 3% 3% Vilano 84% 8% 8% St. Auclostine 86% H% 3% St. Au(.7tst--'@,ne Beach 84% 6% 4% 5% 1% Mobi I e -homes* '(00% Flaqler Coun-Ly Coasf;al Area 73% 13% 7% 7% C@ay ounty R i v( rf ran 90% 4% 6% Mob e hom."-s 1OG% Putna-m, Co@!-_itX Mol)i le homes* 1.00% Loc;a-ted west of intracoastal Waterway 50' 2. If you were ordered by a government authori 'ty to evacuate, how soon could you be ready and when would you leave? (A S- o E E Nassau County Coastal Area 63% 18% 10% 9% Mobile homes .76% 6% 6% 12% Duval County Coastal Area 64% 18% 9% 4% 2% 3% Hecksher Drive 80% 10% 2% 8% Riverfront 72% 22% 6% Mobile homes 70% 18% 3% 3% 3% 3% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 76% 9% 3% 3% 9% Vilano 92% 8% St. Augustine 75% 3% 22% St. Augustine Beach 53% 14% 14% 6% 2% 11% Mobile homes 69% 4% 2% 2% 23% Flagler Co nty Coastal Area 67% 27% 6% Clay County Riverfront 44% 44% 8% 2% 2% Mobile homes 65% 20% 7% 5Z. 3% Putnam County Mobile homes 80% H% 5% 2% 2% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 57 3. How many people live in your home including yourself? One Two Three Four Five or More Nassau County Coastal Area 18% 39% 22% 15% 6% Mobile homes* 24% 29% 35% 12% Duval County Coastal Area 17% 38% 22% 16% 7% Hecksher Drive 8% 55% 20% 15% 2% Riverfront 5% 56% 22% 17% Mobile homes* 17% 38% 22% 16% 7% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 18% 27% 27% 12% 16% Vilano 30% 42% 8% 8% 12% St. Augustine 28% 42% 14% 8% 8% St. Augustine Beach 18% 46% 19% 10% 7% Mobile homes 16% 47% 16% 13% 8% Flagler County Coastal Area 20% 60% 13% 7% Clay County Riverfront 21% 35% 15% 21% 8% Mobile homes 8% 38% 20% 15% 19% Putnam County Mobile,homes 16% 49% 20% 8% 7% Located west of 58 4. Do you and members of your family live in the area during months of June through November? Yes No Nassau County Coastal area 88% 12% Mobile homes* 100% Duval County Coastal area 99% 1% Heckscher Drive 100% Riverfront 100% Mobile home5* 98% 2% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 97% 3% Vilano 100% St. Augustine 100% St. Augustine Beach 97% 3% Mobile homes 87% 13% Flagler County Coastal area 93% 7% Clay County Riverfront 100% Mobile homes 100% Putnam County Mobile homes 100% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 59 5. Do you and members of your family live in the area duri-.-tq -wic-n-ths of December through May? Yes NO Nassau County Coastal area 86% @4% Mobile homes@ 00% Duval County Coastal area 98% 2% Heckscher Drive 100% Riverfront 100% Mobile homee 97% 3% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 97% 3% Vilano 96% 4% St. Augustine 100% St. Augustine Beach 94% 6% Mobile homes* 90% 1.0%. Flagler County Coastal area 93% 7% Clay County Riverfront NO% Mobile homes 100% Putnam County Mobile homes 100% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 60 6. How many vehicles are in your household? One Two Three Four plus Nassau County Coastal area 35%" 51% 14% Mobile homes* 37% 46% 12% 5% Duval County Coastal area 38% 42% 12% 8% Heckscher Drive 15% 56% 20% 9% Riverfront 22% 72% 6% Mobile homes* 36% 47% 12% 5% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 24% 48% 18% 10% Vilano 46% 31% 8% 15% St. Augustine 55% 24% 10% 11% St. Augustine Beach 43% 40% 11% 6% Mobile homes* 46% 37% 12% 5% Flagler County Coastal area 46% 39% 11% 4% Clay County Riverfront 23% 40% 27% 6% Mobile homes 28% 48% 17% 7% Putnam County Mobile homes 37% 46% 11% 6% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway, 61 6A. How many vehicles would you use during an evacuation? One Two Three Four plus Nassau County Coastal area 67% 25% 5% 3% Mobile homes* 80% 20% Duval County Coastal area 66% 26% 5% 3% Heckscher Drive 55% 42% 3% Riverfront 61% 39% Mobile homes* 69% 24% 5% 2% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 67% 30% 3% Vilano 83% 13% 4% St. Augustine 78% 14% 4% 4% St. Augustine Beach 68% 22% 7% 3% Mobile homes* 75% 17% 6% 2% Flagler County Coastal area 67% 25% 5/ 3% Clay County Riverfront 63% 25% 10% Mobile homes 78% 21% 1% Putnam County Mobile homes 72% 24% 4% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway- 62 6B. Would you need transportation such as a bus or taxi? Yes No Nassau County Coastal area 4% 96% Mobile homes* 100% Duval County Coastal area 5% 95% Heckscher Drive 100% Riverfront 100% Mobile homes* 4% 96% St. Johns County 100% Ponte Vedra 100% Vilano 89% St. Augustine 11% 99% St. Augustine Beach 1% 100% Mobile homes* Flagler County Coastal area 14% 86% Clay County Riverfront 4% 96% Mobile homes 100% Putnam County Mobile homes 4% 96% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 63 7. Is there anyone who could not be evacuated without help from outside your home? Yes No Nassau County Coastal area 2% 98% Mobile homes 7% 92% Duval County Coastal area 4% 96% Heckscher Drive 5% 95% Riverfront 100% Mobile homes 4% 96% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 100% Vilano 4% 96% St. Augustine 11% 89% St. Augustine Beach 3% 97% Mobile homes* 2% 98% Flagler County Coastal area 100% Clay County Riverfront 6% 94% Mobile homes 100% Putnam County Mobile homes 8% 92% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 64 8. After leaving your home, where would you go? Designated Friend or Hotel Don't Red Cross Shelter Relative or Motel Know Nassau County Coastal area 16% 53% 27% 4% Mobile homes* 20% 47% 20% 13% Duval County Coastal area 22% 51% 20% 7% Heckscher Drive 11% 55% 18% 16% Riverfront 39% 50% 11% Mobile home5* 46% 37% 12% 5% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 26% 45% 29% Vilano 17% 44% 22% 17% St. Augustine 41% 35% 14% 10% St. Augustine Beach 24% 46% 15% 15% Mobile homes* 67% 23% 6% 4% Flagler County Coastal area 60% 13% 27% Clay County Riverfront 36% 36% 8% 20% Mobile homes 43% 33% 3% 21% Putnam County 53% 28% 7% 12% Mobile homes Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 65 9. What route would you take? What major highway or street? Nassau County - coastal area A-1-A west 96% Unspecified 4% Duval County - coastal area Atlantic Boulevard 36% J. Turner Butler Boulevard 28% Beach Boulevard 36% Duval County - Heckscher Drive/Talbot Island Heckscher Drive 100% St. Johns County - Ponte Vedra J. Turner Butler 85% A-1-A 3% State Road 210 9% Unspecified 3% St. Johns County - Vilano Beach/South Ponte Vedra A-1-A south 83% A-1-A north 4% Unspecified 13% St. Johns County - Anastasia/Davis Shores Bridge of Lions 24% State Road 312 19% US-1 9% Unspecified 48% St. Johns County - St. Augustine Beach/Crescent Beach Bridge of Lions 3% State Road 312 52% State Road 206 21% Other 7% Unspecified 17% Flagler County - coastal area State Road 100 - 100% 66 10. Have you ever experienced a direct hurricane strtke? Yes KI 0 Nassau County Coastal area 49% 51% Mobile homes* 59% 41% Duval Coun@y Coastal area 67% 33% Heckscher Drive 63% 37% Riverfront 83% 17% Mobile homes* 60% 40%, St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 58% 42% Vilano 73% 27% St. Augustine 81% 1T/. St. Augustine Beach 75% 25% Mobile homes* 89% 11% Flagler County Coastal area 67% 33% Clay County Riverfront 65% 35% Mobile homes 63% 37% Putnam County Mobile homes 53% 47% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 67 11. Into which age group do you belong? 35-and under 35-49 50-64 65 and over Nassau County Coastal area 22% 33% 33% 12% Mobile homes* 18% 53% 24% 5% Duval County Coastal area 31% 26% 25% 18% Heckscher Drive 18% 20% 50% 12% Riverfront 6% 28% 44% 22% Mobile homes* 34% 30% 21% 15% St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 30% 36% 18% 16% Vilano 11% 19% 35% 35% St. Augustine 14% 17% 19% 50% St. Augustine Beach 15% 20% 35% 30% Mobile homes* 16% 12% 44% 28% Flagler County Coastal area 20% 27% 53% Clay County Riverfront 19% 33% 31% 17% Mobile homes 34% 28% 25% 13% Putnam County Mobile homes 13% 19% 37% 31% Located west of Intracoastal Waterway. 68 Region-wide Response Analysis 1. Do you live in a: Regionwide Coastal homes (total selected responses) Single family home 48% (646) 76% (522) Apartment 6% (87) 12% (82) Condominium 3% (44) 6% (42) Mobile home 42% (568) 4% (26) Duplex or triplex 1% (20) 2% (16) 100% (1,365) 100% (688) 2. If you were ordered by a government authority to evacuate, how soon could you be ready and when would you leave? Regionwide Coastal Homes Mobile homes Immediately 68% 65% 73% One hour 17% 17% 14% Two hours 6% 9% 4% Three hours 3% 3% 2% Four hours plus 1% 1% 1% Never 5% 5% 6% 100% 100% 100% 3. How many people live in your home including yourself? Regionwide Coastal Mobile homes One 17% 18% 15% Two 41% 40% 43% Three 21% 21% 21% Four 14% 14% 13% Five plus 7% 7% 8% 100% 100% 100% West of the Intracoastal Waterway 69 4. Do you and members of your household live in the area during months of June through November? Yes No Regionwide 98% 2% Coastal 98% 2% Mobile homes* 97% 2% 5. Do you and members of your household live in the area during months of December through May? Yes No Regionwide 97% 3% Coastal 98% 2% Mobile homes* 97% 3% 6. How many vehicles are in your household? MQbi:le Regionwide Coastal Homes- 0/ One 4 &01 38% 37/0 Two 39% 42% 46% Three 11% 12% 12% Four plus 4% 8% 5% 100% 100% 100% 6A. How many vehicles would you use durfng an evacuation? Mobile Regionwide Coastal Homes One 67% 65% 72% Two 25% 26% 23% Three 5% 6% 3% Four plus 3% 3% 2% 100% 100% 100% West of Intracoastal Waterway 70 6B. Would you need transportation such as a bus or taxi? Yes No Regionwide 4% 96% Coastal 4% 96% Mobile homes* 3% 97% 7. Is there anybody who could not be evacuated without help from outside your home? Yes No Regionwide 4% 96% Coastal 4% 96% Mobil e homes 5% 95% 8. After leaving your home, where would you go? Mobile Regionwide Coastal Homes* Designated Red Cross Shelter 33% 22% 49% Friend or relative 42% 47% 31% Hotel or motel 15% 19% 8% Don't know 10% 12% 12% 100% 10N. 1 GO 9. What route would you take? What major highway or street? See county-wide analysis. 10. Have you ever experienced a direct hurricane strike? Yes No Regionwide 64% 36% Coastal 67% 33% Mobile homes 59% 41% West of Ntracoastal Waterway 71 11. Into which age group do you belong? Regionwide Coastal Mobile homes homes- homee 35 and under 34% 26% 24% 35 - 49 25% 26% 24% 50 - 64 30% 27% 30% 65 and over 21% 21% 22% 100% 100% 100% West of Intracoastal Waterway 72 Key Response. Analys-is - Absolute Figures 2. If you were ordered by a government authority to evacuate, how soon could you be ready and when would you leave? One Two Three Four Immediately Hour Hours Hours Hours+ Never Nassau County Coastal area 8,398 2,399 1,333 1,200 Mobile homes* 5,768 455 455 912 Duval County Coastal area 29,216 8,217 4,109 1,826 912 1,370 Heckscher Drive 280 35 7 28 Mobile homes* 18,221 4,685 781 781 781 731 St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 3,741 443 148 148 443 Vilano 1,588 138 St. Augustine 8,978 359 2,633 St. Augustine Beach 2,221 587 587 251 84 461 Mobile homes* 4,651 270 139 139 1,550 Flagler County Coastal area 2,667 1,075 238 Clay County Riverfront 4,875 1,500 525 375 225 Mobile homes Putnam County Mobile homes 10,805 1.,486 675 270 270 Located west of Intracoastal Waterway 73 6. How many vehicles are in your household? Households Vehicles One Two Three + Total Nassau County Coastal area 6,460 2,262(l) 3,295(.2) 904(3) 11,563 Mobile homes* 3,795 1,404(l) 1,746(2) 455(3) 5,806 Duval County Coastal area 18,510 7,043(l) 7,774(2) 3,702(3) 33,697 Heckscher Dr. 140 21(1) 78(2) 41(3) 300 Mobile homes* 13,015 4,685(.1) 6,117(.2) 2,213(3) 23,558 St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 2,784 668(l) 1@337(2) 779(.3) 5,679 Vilano 897 412(l) 278(2) 207(3) 1,589 St. Augustine 5,806 3,194(l) 1,393(2) 1,219(3) 9,637 St. Augustine 2,313 995(l) 925(2) 393(3) 4,024 Beach Mobile homes 3,370 1,550(l) 1,247(2) 573(3) 5,763 Flagler County Coastal area 3,980 1,821(l) 1,552(2) 597(3) 6,727 ClAy County Mobile homes 3,750 1,050(1) 1,800(2) 901(3) 7,353 Putnam County Mobile homes 6,753 2,4990) 3,107(2) 1,147(3) 12,154 West of Intracoastal Waterway 74 6A. How many vehicles would you use during an evacuation? Households Evacuating Vehicles Nassau County One Two Three + Total Coastal area 6,460 4,328(l) 1,615(2) 517(3) 91109 Mobile homes 3,339 2,671(1) 668(2) 4,007 Duval County Coastal area 17,955 11,850(l) 4,668(2) 1,487(3) 25,647 Heckscher Dr. 130 72(l) 55(2) 3(3) 191 Mobile homes* 12,624 8,711(l) 3,030(2) 883(3) 17,420 St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 2,533 1,697(l) 7 EiO-(-2 76(3) 3,445 Vilano 825 685(l) 107(2) 33(3) 998 St. Augustine 4,529 3,533(l) 634(2) 362(3) 5,887 St. Augustine 2,059 1,400(l) 453(2) 206(3) 2,924 Beach Mobile homes* 2,595 1,946(l) 441(2) 208(3) 3,452 Flagler County Coastal area 3,741 2,506(l) 935(2) 299(3) 5,273 clay County Mobile homes 3,637 2,838(l) 764(2) 35(3) 4,471 Putnam County Mobile homes 6,618 4,765(l) 1,588(2) 265(3) 8,736 West of Intracoastal Waterway S 75 6B. Would you need transportation such as a bus or taxi? Evacuating Nassau County Population Yes Coastal area 13,330 4% or 533 Mobfle homes* 6,678 -0- Duval County Coastal area. 44,280 5% or 2,214 Heckscher Dr,. 322 -0- Mobile homes;* 25,249 4% or 1,010 St. Johns Couinty Ponte Vedri.2, 41,480 -0- Vilano 1,450 -0- St. Augustine 9,337 11% or 1,027 St. Augus,tine Beach 3,730 1% or 37 Mob i I e hcj,,,-nes 119 -0- Flagler Co_,@ @t Coastal area 5,819 14% or 815 Clay Cou ty Mobi I e homes 7,275 4% or 291 Putnam County Mobil,e homes 13,236 4% or 529 West of Intracoastal Iditterway 76 7. Is there anyone who could not be evacuated w1thout h-elp from out5ide your home? Evacuating Population Yes Nassau County Coastal area 13,330 2% or 266 Mobile homes* 6,678 7% or 467 Duval County Coastal area 44,280 4% or 1,771 Heckscher Dr. 322 5% or 16 Mobile homes* 25,249 4% or 1,010 St. Johns County Ponte Vedra 4,480 -0- Vilano 1,450 4% or 58 St. Augustine 9,337 11% or 1,027 St. Augustine Beach 3,730 3% or 112 Mobile homes* 5,119 2% or 102 Flagler County Coastal area 5,819 -0- Clay County. Mobile homes 7,275 -0- Putnam County Mobile homes 13,236 8% or 1,Q5q West of Intracoastal Waterway 77 8. After leaving your home, where would you g o? Evacuating Designated Friend or Hotel Don't Population Red Cross Shelter Relative or Motel Know Nassau County 3,599 533 Coastal area 13,300 2,133 7,065 Mobile homes* 6,678 1,336 3,138 1,336 868 Duval County 8,856 3,099 Coastal area 44,280 9,742 22,583 Heckscher Dr. 322 35 177 58 52 Mobile homes* 25,249 11,615 9,342 3,030 1,262 St. Johns--@ @nt Ponte Vedra 4,480 1,165 2,016 1,299 Vilano 1,450 247 638 319 246 St. Augustine 9,337 3,828 3,268 1,307 934 St. Augustine Beach 3,730 895 1,715 560 560 Mobile homes* 5,119 3,430 1,177 307 205 Flagler Coun - Coastal area 5,819 3,492 756 1,571 Clay County Mobile homes 7,275 3,128 2,401 218 1,528 Putnam Couny Mobile homes 13,236 7,016 3,706 926 1,588 West of Intracoastal Waterway 78 8.b.c. After leavi'ng, where would you go?, To a friend or relative; in what county or city would that be? From To Nassau County Nassau County-inland 28% or 2,858 Duval County 13% or 1,326 Georgia 44% or 4,489 Alachua County 3% or 306 Other cities, counties, or states 6% or 612 Unspecified 6% or 612 Duval County Duval County-inland 74% or 23,731 Clay County 5% or 1,603 Alachua County 2% or 641 Georgia 7% or 2,245 Other cities 7% or 2,245 Other states 3% or 962 Unspecified 2% or 641 St. Johns County- Duval County-inland 86% or 1,734 Ponte Vedra Beach Orange Park 7% or 141 Other cities in State 7% or 141 St. Johns County St. Johns County-inland 30% or 2,038 (excluding Ponte St. Augustine 13% or 884 Vedra Beach) Duval County 17% or 1,156 Alachua County 10% or 680 Putnam County 9% or 612 Other cities 13% or 884 Other states 3% or 204 Unspecified 5% or 340 Clay County Clay County 47% or 1,129 (mobile homes) Duval County 32% or 768 Other cities in State 16% or 384 Georgia 5% or 120 Putnam County Putnam County 54% or 2,002 (mobile homes) Duval County 6% or 222 Georgia 17% or 630 Alachua County 5% or 185 Other cities in state 18% or 667 79 8.d.e. After leaving, where would you go? To a hotel or motel; in what county or city would that be? From To Nassau County Nassau County-Wand 33% or 1,630 Duval County 27% or 1,332 Georgia 27% or 1,332 Alachua County 7% or 345 Unspecified 6% or 296 Duval County Duval County-inland 77% or 9,193 Georgia 18% or 2,149 Other cities 5% or 597 St. Johns County- Duval County-inland 78% or 1,013 Ponte Vedra Beach Clay County 11% or 143 Not specified 11% or 143 St. Johns County St. Johns County-inland 51% or 1,271 (excluding Ponte St. Augustine 30% or 748 Vedra Beach) Other cities 19% or 474 Flagler County Putnam County 50% or 243 Other cities 50% or 243 Clay County Clay County 100% or 218 (mobile homes) Putnam County Putnam County 51% or 471 (mobile homes) Lake City 14% or 130 Alachua County 7% or 65 Georgia 7% or 65 Other states 7% or 65 Unspecified 14% or 130 80 FINDINGS Survey data generated and analyzed further reveals findings which are con- veniently categorized around certain ones of the behavioral survey questions as follow: 1. Findings Based on Question 1: Type of Housing Unit Household type is a key variable for predicting automobile ownership and use, and sheltering demand. All mobile homes, for instance, should be evacuated during an evacuation. As noted in the Region-wide Analysis, 42 percent of all respond- ents live in a mobile home. Counties of Northeast Florida have a relatively high percentage of mobile homes. Then too, a significant portion of the region's population live along the sea coast, most of whom should be evacuated. 2. Findings Based on Question 2: Evacuation Order Responses On a region-wide basis, 68 percent of all respondents stated they will evacuate immediately. Sixty-five (65) percent of respondents of coastal households will evacuate immediately, which is the same percentage revealed in a similar survey conducted among coastal residents of Brevard and Volusia Counties in 1982 by the North Central Regional Planning Council. A larger percentage of people living in mobile homes located i,nland will evacuate imgedfately as comPared to those li.'vi,ng in all types of housing units on the coast, at least from a regional perspective. St. Johns County is the exception. It is noteworthy in St, Johns @ounty that a significant 23 percent of the respondents living in mobile homes answered "never" to Question 2. Additionally, a large number of the respondents living in the City of St. Augustine also answered they would never evacuate (as revealed in the County- wide Response Analysis). 3. Findings Based on Question 3: Household Characteristics - Persons Per Household On a region-wide basis, a higher percentage of single people live on the coast. The average size of families among mobile home households appears larger. This is true indeed in Clay and Nassau Counties, as shown in Question 3 of the County-wide Response Analysis. More of the coastal residents would be inclined to stay with a rela- tive or friend. Flagler County is a major exception, at least according to the County-wide Analysis. It is suggested that due to rapid growth in that county, fewer coastal residents have family or other social ties with those residents who live inland. 81 4. Findings Based on QuesticAs 4 and 5: Year-Round Residency Answers to Questlons 4 and 5 indicate that only a small percentage of permanent residents leave the area during hurricane season (June through November) as well as during the period December through May. On a county-wide basis, however, a significant number of people living on the coast in Nassau County and in mobile homes in St. Johns County leave these areas during the hurricane season. Answers to Question 5 also show that a significant number of coastal residents of Nassau County and mobile home residents of St. Johns County also leave during the period December through May. 5. Findings Based on Questions 6, 6A, and 6B: Vehicle Availability and Usage It is critical to have a realistic estimate of the number of vehicles which will enter the evacuat-ion ruute network. Accordl, .ng to the region-wide response analysis, a large majority of households have at least two vehicles. On a reglon-wide basis, the ratio of cars to households is 1.8:1, which happens to be the same for the coastal areas at risk. Also on a region-wide basis, 70 percent of all regis- tered vehicles would be utilized in an evacuation which is estimated to be at least 92,000. The percentage ranges, however, from 60 percent among mobile households in St. Johns County to 79 percent among coastal households in Nassau County. Although the majority of avacuees would utilize only one vehicle, at '!east 25 percent (of the evacuees) from respective households would travel in two vehicles, as shown in the region-wide response analysis. However, the use of two or more vehicles varies from county to county, as noted in the county-wide response analysis. On a region-wide basis, most residents would not rely upon a bus or taxi. The coastal area of Flagler County and Ctty of St. Augustine are the exceptions, as seen in the county-wi'de respons'e analysis. 6. Findings Based on Question 7: Transportation Disadvantaged or Handicapped The region-wide response analysis shows that four to five percent of the respondents would need transportation. Applied on a region-wide basis, this means that an estimated 5,888 people would need transporta- tion assistance. The assumption is that most would need the assistance of non-profit corporations such as respective county councils on aging, associations for retarded citizens, etc. Hence, the elderly and phy- sically and mentally handicapped would be prime examples of the people in need of transportation. It is noteworthy that the City of St. Augustine has a significant percentage of such people in need, as reflected in the county-wide response analysis. 7. Findings Based on Questions 8 and 9: Evacuation Destinations and Routes Evacuation destinations and routes are significant for determining the distance and period of time necessary for completion of evacuation, the demand on evacuation routes, and the demand for shelter space. 82 As shown in the Response Analysis, almost half of the residents living -Inland mobile hcmes would travei to a designated Red Cross Shelter, compared to only 22 percent of the respondents who live on the coast. Attent4on is drawn to the responses to Question 9 of the County-wide Respon@e Analysis. A substant-*,al number of coastal residents living in St. Johns County gave no answer or did not know which route to take in the event of a evacuation. PL' is noteworthy that most people in Ponte Vedra Beach wou,-d travel into Duval County, then west on J. Turner Butler Boulevard. Furthermore, most of those from Ponte Vedra seeking designated Red Cross shelters would do so in Duval County. 8. It was necessary to determ-!ne -.f th'- population-al.*-risk have a true perception of or previous experience with hurricanes and to further determine if their percept"ion wl .;I affect future hurricane prepared- ness and evacuation efforts. On a region-wide bas-ts, 57 percent of the coastal residents answered 11yes" to their having experienced a direct hurricane strike. rt was found in the analysis, however, that many residents felt they had been affected by Hurricane David, which paralleled off shore and which furthermore was not a major storm. Unfortunately, a sizeable portion of the people who will be at-risk in the event of a hurricane land- falling believe they have encountered a hurricane without having to evacuate. Consequently, in the future they may be reluctant to eva- cuate. 83 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS Other hurricane hazard and evacuation plan studies have been completed in Florida and have incorporated behavioral studies. Several have already been referenced in this chapter. For comparative purposes, some of these studies are examined inasmuch as many of the questions included herein were in fact included in them. Briefly, in the way of background, the first hurricane evacuation plan with corresponding behavioral survey in Florida was the Lee County Flood Emergency Evacuation Plan completed in 1979 by the U.S. Corps of Engineers. That survey was subsequently used as a base for developing the behavioral survey as part of the Tampa Bay Flood Emergency Evacuation Plan. The "domino principal" prevailed as similar surveys were completed as integral parts of hurricane evacuation plans in the Sanibel-Captiva area, in Southwest Florida, in the Treasure Coast coastal area, in the Southeast Florida coastal area; and in the East Central Florida coastal area, all in that order. Respective regional planning councils completed all but the Southeast Florida coastal area survey; most behavioral surveys were done on a contractual basis. The Southeast Florida plan was completed by the Corps of Engineers, even though contracted to Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, Inc. Table 33 on page 85 constitutes a comparative analysis based upon specific questions which were included in the behavioral survey's of three hurricane eva- cuation plans, namely those completed by the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, the Tampa Bay Region Planning Council, and the Corps of Engineers (for the Southeast Florida hurricane evacuation plan). All of the aforementioned surveys were based on the Lee County prototype; the similarity in questions facilitated comparative analysis. As noted in Table 33 , the study completed in the Southeast Florida area showed a significant 26 percent people responding that they would never evacuate; this quotient was attributed to the fact that the Southeast Florida study included a number of residents not residing in vulnerable or at-risk areas. Otherwise, all of the surveys completed in at-risk areas revealed that in excess of 90 percent of the residents (in those areas) would evacuate if ordered to do so. As stated heretofore, a quotient of 65 percent was identical for coastal resi- dents of East Central Florida (Brevard and Volusia Counties) and of Northeast Florida regarding "Immediate" as their answer concerning evacuation. In all surveys, vehicle usage ranged from sixty to eighty percent, the average being seventy percent. The high 82 percent Usage rate found in the East Central Florida inland area is attributed to the large number of one-vehicle households (in that study area). As noted particularly in the Coastal areas of East Central Florida and Northeast Florida, the demand for shelter space was lowest. Those living in coastal areas generally are affluent. Hence, many would seek a friend or relative or a hotel or motel as opposed to seeking a public shelter. Although there is no specific research on how quickly groups have responded to evacuation orders in the past, certain delay factors have appeared. Specific- ally, residents have taken time after the order to seek confirmation of the danger through additional sources, including neighbors, friends and relatives. Finally, for those persons who say they will not evacuate, the only viable alternative for publi'c officials at tnis time is to further educate them. There is no documented case in the country in which such persons have been forcibly removed from thei'r homes. Politkal reasons, tradition, the danger to enforcement officials, and the need for these officials in other pursuits have precluded such action. 6ABLE 33 COMPARATIVE ANx,-Ys,1,,,s a-@ BEHAVHORAL SUIRVEYS Northeast East Central Florida Florida Tampa Southeast ,Coastal 11-nland Coastal jInland Bay Florida EVACUATION RESPONSE Immediate 65% 73% 65% 81% 77% 69% Certain Number of Hours 30% 21% 27% 15% 17% 5% Never 5% 6% 8% 4% 6% 26% VEHICULAR USAGE 73% 69% 70% 82% 71% 70% NEED FOR SPECIAL HELP 4% 5% 4% 7% 3% N.A. DESTINATION Shelter 22% 49% 18% 46% 38% 23% Friend or Relative 47% 31% 38% 18% 26% 28% Hotel or Motel 19% 8% 31% 15% 19% 10% Don't Know 12% 12% 13% 21% 17% 11% 85 CHAPTER VI INTRODUCTION Due to efforts of American Red Cross chapters, county school boards, and defense directors, a number of school buildings in the Northeast Florida region have been designated as public shelters in the event of a hurricane striking Therefore, the examination of shelter preparedness is vital to locate disaster preparedness officials inasmuch as the data so generated determines the adequacy of existing shelters and the need for additional shelters. Accordingly, this chapter includes 1) an inventory of shelters broken down by county, 2) an analysis of the capability of the shelters to meet demand, and 3) a shelter/medical surge analysis to determine the vulnerability of hospitals and nursing homes located on the coast. SHELTER INVENTORY Civil Defense Directors, American Red Cross personnel, and county school board administrators were cooperative in providing valuable informatation needed for the inventory and assisted in the required data collection. Tables 34through 40 beginning on the following page constitute the inventory. Shelters in coastal counties of Nassau, Duval, St. Johns and Flagler are in- ventoried first, in that order, followed by those in Clay, Putnam and Baker. In each table, information is broken down by shelter location, capacity, shelter manager, and shelter facilities. Facilities are futher detailed to determine the availability of emergency power; whether water and sewar systems are independent, or dependent upon city or county; the availability of food facilities and stocked food; and the vulnerability of each shelter in regard to the hazards related to storm surge. Shelter capacity is based upon 20 square feet per person. SHELTER DEMAND AND AVAILABILITY Sheltering demand in the six counties of Northeast Florida and the capabilities of the shelters to accommodate prospective evacuees are summarized in Table 41 on page 105. As noted in the footnote at the bottom of Table 41, figures showing the population seeking shelter are taken from Chapter V, the Behavioral Survey. The figures reflect a "worse case" condition resulting from* a landfalling Cate- gory 3 hurricane (striking 90 degrees relative to the coastline) in which all coastal residents as well as all mobile home residents in all counties are endangered and hence are ordered to evacuate. (Continued on page 105) 86 TABLE 34 SHELTER INVENTORY - NASSAU COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend., Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Bryceville Elementary 68 June Page No X X Unknown P. 0. Box 3 Church Avenue Bryceville 266-9241 Callahan Elementary 326 Blanco Lee No X X 15 min. !00 South Booth Street Callahan 879-2121 Callahan Intermediate 156 Glenn Long Yes No 20 co RZ. 2 Box 283 State Road 108 Callahan 879-1114 Callahan Junior High 1417 Ben Rice No X X X 23 P. 0. Box AA Rd 115 Callahan 879-3606 !@ast Nassau High 666 Emmitt Coakley No X X X 15 min. 300 South Brown Street Callahan 879-3461 Emma Love Hardee Elementary 275 James Davis No X X X 15 300 Susan Drive Fernandina Beach 261-5507 Fernandina Beach High 522 William Fryer No X X X 19 515 Citrona Avenue Fernandina Beach 261-5713 TABLE 34 SHELTER INVENTORY - NASSAU COUNTY (CONTINUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Fernandina Beach Junior High 592 Eugene Grant No X X X 25 Atlantic Avenue Fernandina Beach 261-4461 Southside Elementary 1046 Mildred Campbell No X X X 20 1112 Jasmine Street Fernandina Beach 261-5509 Hilliard Elementary 156 Carl Kane No X -No, No 20 min. co P. 0. Box 1109 First Street Hilliard 845-4471 X X 20 min. N'illiard Junior-Senior High 588 Ada Revell No X P. 0. Box 1199 First Street Hilliard 845-2171 Yulee Elementary 491 Robert Springer No X X X 20 min. P. 0. Box 57 US 17 Yulee 225-5116 Yulee Junior High.- 795 Ray Davis No X X X 20 min. P. 0. Box 68 State Road 200 and AlA Yulee 225-5192 MM up M Mao M M M MM M M M M M M TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation@ Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAIACITY@ MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocke-d (feet) Brentwood Elementary 114 Cynthia Anderson No x x x 20 3750 Springfield Avenue 355-7875 Ruth Upson Elementary 180 Raymond @Iilliams Yes x x x 20 1090 Dancy Street 389-3253 Fishweir Elementary Beverly Viorrison Yes x x x 15 00 3977 Herschel Street 389-2230 John Gorrie Junior High 248 Jerry Gugel No X x 20 2525 College Street 384-1391 Corinne Scott Elementary 123 Walter White No x No No 20 1951 Market Street 354-0831 Loretto Elementary 175 Josie Doty No x x x 30 3900 Loretto Roa& 268-5722 Landon Junior High 270 Jerry Jackson No x x x 10 .1831 Thacker Avenue 396-1457 Robert E. Lee Senior High 515 Ray Stasco, No x No No 20 1200 S. McDuff Avenue 388-3778 TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (COMTiNUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAIACITIJ MANAGER GENERATOR Depend., Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) - Andrew Jackson Senior High 594 Donald Buckley No x No No 20 23816 Niain Street 533-6475 Baidwin Junior-Senior High 375 Ted Starnes No x 9 30 291 Mfl"h Street Baldwin 266-4461 Dinsmore Elementary 1.28 Nlichael Akers No x 10 7126 civic Club Road 765-2700 Thomas Jefferson Elementary 132 Margaret McCaughey Yes 8233 Nevada Street 781-5565 x x 75 t1hitehouse Elementary 141 Lucille Coberly No 11160 General Avenue 781-5977 x x 20 Garden City Elementary 146 Donna Sutton No 2814 Dunn Avenue 764-6900 Oceanway 7th Grade Center 382 Carlotta Ray Yes x x 30 143 Florida Avenue 757-.1464 Hogan-Spring Glen Elementary 200 Elizabeth Scudder Yes x x x 15 6736 Beach Boulevard 725-1044 TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (CONTINUED) Vulnerability Anallysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation. Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITYJ MANAGER GENETRATOR Depend. 1 Independ. Kitchen Stock-ed (feet) DuPont Junior High 270 Bill English No x x x 20 2710 DuPont Avenue 737-2060 Lake Shore Junior High 386 Chester Silas Yes x NO NO 20 2519 Bayview Avenue 389-1152 North Shore Elementary 378 Hortense Brewington No x x x 20 5701 Silver Plaza 764-7561 Hendricks Avenue Elementary 99 Juanita Wilson No x x x 20 3400 Hendricks Avenue 396-3319 John Love Elementary 146 John Gornto Yes x x x 15 1531 Winthrop Street 355-1238 Paxon Senior High 515 B. J. Ford Yes x x x 20 3239 West Fifth Street 786-2910 Ramona Elementary 272 Mildred Pittman Yes x x x 25 5540 Ramona Boulevard 786-0606 Love Grove Elementary 170 R. L. Hutcheson Yes x x x 20 2446 University Boulevard South 724-8351 M man M M M M M Mao mow TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (CONTINUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation. Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/phone) CAPACITY1 MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) San Jose Elementary 182 Janis Bourne Yes x x x 40 5805 St. Augustine Road 733-9600 Lake Lucina Elementary 269 Susan Heavener No x x x 40 6527 Merrill Road 744-6777 Terry Parker Senior High 816 Ralph Patterson Yes x x x 40 7301 Parker School Road Q0 N) 724-8100 John Stockton Elementary 182 Nancy Snyder Yes x x x 10 4827 Carlisle Road 384-2111 Woodland Acres Elementary 140 James Aderhold No x x x 45 328 Bowlan Street 724-5788 Englewood Senior High 515 Harold Pearynan Y.es x x x 15 4412 Barnes Road.- 733-1770 No x x x 25 Pinedale Elementary 151 Jewel Israel 4229 Edison Avenue 389-0601 x x 50 Windy Hills Elementary 144 Verna Fields Yes x 3831 Forest Boulevard 641-1686 TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (CONTINUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY1 MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) 598 h1al te x x x 15 Ribault Senior High r Harris Yes 3701 Winton Drive 633-5197 Timucuan Elementary 112 Jane Condon Yes x x x 15 5429 110th Street 771-1125 Highlands Elementary 150 Carolyn Chambliss Yes, x x x 20 1.0 1000 DePaul Drive 751-0323 Douglas Anderson .7th Grade Cen. 384 Judy Poppell Yes x x x 25 2425 San Diego Road 396-7038 Susie Tolbert Elementary 140 Llewllyn Sadler Yes x x x 25 1925 West 13th Street 354-6013 Mathew Gilbert 7th Grade Cen. 200 Curtis Randolph Yes x x x 15 1424 Franklin Street 633-4357 Stanton College Preparatory 916 Carole Walker Yes x x x 25 1149 West 13th Street 633-3394 Northwestern Junior High 695 Quentin Messer Yes x x x 25 2100 West 45th Street 633-6062 TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (coNTINUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Carver Elementary 122 Estelle McKissick Yes X X X 20 2854 West 45th Street 765-1323 Butler 7th Grade Center 342 Herman Hotiard Yes X X X 25 900 Acorn Street 633-3410 wo Reynolds Lane Elementary 162 Carolyn Carl Yes X X X 25 840 Reynolds Lane 388-3410 Pickett Elementary 162 Lloyd Daniel Yes X X X 15 6305 Old Kings Road 786-1655 Brookview Elementary 148 Dorethea Haynes Yes X X X 35 10450 Theresa Drive 641-9033 Stuart Senior Hig@' 242 Rex Marchman Yes X X X 15 4815 Wesconnett Boulevard 771-5050 X 60 Davis Junior High 400 Veronica Valentine Yes X 7050 Melvin Road 771-5050 Stilwell Junior High 578 Cecil Allison No X X X 60 7840 Burma Road 781-6260 M moo M M mm MM M MM M Mao M MM TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (CoqTINUED) Vulner6bility Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAIACITIJ MANAGER GENER@TOR Depend., Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Wolfson Senior High 503 David White Yes 7000 Powers Avenue 733-6260 x x 80 Jacksonville Heights Elementary 131 Jane Patterson Yes x 7750 Tempest Street South 771-8011 x 15 ,0 Beauclerc Elementary 150 Donna Darby No x ul 4555 Craven Road West 733-1055 Lone Star Elementary 154 Paula Potter No x x x so 10400 Lone Star Road 642-4510 x x 20 Stonewall Jackson Elementary 150 Sandra Davis Yes x 6127 Cedar Hills Boulevard 771-9590 S' x x x 40 Sandalwood Juniort;Senior High 1362 Linda Lewis Ye 2750 John Prom Boulevard 641-1020 Ft. Caroline Junior High 572 Jim Jaxon Yes x x x 40 3787 University Club Boulevard 744-1911 Arlington Heights Elementary 155 Dorothy Overmier Yes x 40 1520 Sprinkle Drive 744-7900 MW "Mow"" mwm@ M M MM MM TABLE 35 SHELTER INVENTORY - DUVAL COUNTY (CONTINUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend.a Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Forrest Senior High 808 Ron Poppell Yes x x x 55 5 530 Lanier Road 757-3143 Sheffield Elementary 125 Irving Huffingham Yes x x x 30 13333 Lanier Road 75743143 Yes x x x 15 Crown Point Elementary 220 Mildred Logan 3800 Crown Point Road 2262-0960 White Senior High 497 John Thombleson Yes x x 30 1700 Old Middleburg Road 786-4020 mmmm man M man am M man" M TABLE 36 SHELTER INVENTORY - ST. JOHNS COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAIACITYJ MANAGER GENERATOR Depend., Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) St. Augustine Technical Center 1,335 Steve Hand Yes X X X 15 min. Collins Avenue at Del Monte Dr. St. Augustine 824-4401 Ketterlinus Junior High 528 Bobbie Braden No X Artesian X X 7 min. Cat 2 Well storyn (upper floor) surge 75 Orange Street St. Augustine 824-4431 Webster Sixth Grade Center 80 Roger Coffee No X X X 35 feet 146 Orange Street St. Augustine 824-2955 W. Douglas Hartley Elementary 184 Dolores Rowley Yes X X X 30 260 Riviera St. Augustine Shares 797-7156 Mill Creek Elementary 86 Gary Blount No X X X 25 State Road 16 St. Augustine 829-3537 Hastings Elementary 64 Steve Moranda No X Artesian X X 7 Boulevard South Well Hastings 692-1154 X X 15 min. Julington Creek Elementary 1,573 Susan Yocius No X 2316 Racetrack Road N.W. sector of county 268-2311 TABLE 36 SHELTER INVENTORY - ST@ JOHNS COUNTY (CONTINUED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) dman No x x x 60 Allen Nease Junior-Senior High 274 Halver Ste t Ray Road N. sector of county 824-1234 murray Junior High 80 Jim Smeland No x X 9 35 Holmes Boulevard St. Augustine 824-1234 LO TABLE 37 SHELTER INVENTORY - FLAGLER COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAIACITIJ MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) x 25 Flagler-Palm Coast High 2,030 Darrell Furguson No E. of Bunnell Route 100 E. 437-2474 Bunnell Elementary 1,546 Nancy Hillis No x x 25 Howe Street Bunnell 437-2171 Belle Terre Middle School 2,334 E.L. "Buddy" Taylor Yes 29 Belle Terre Parkway Palm Coast 445-4172 TABLE SHELTER INVENTORY CLAY COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAIACITIJ MANAGER GEMERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Orange Park High 652 Jim Booth No x x 65 2300 Kingsley Avenue Orange Park 272-8100 Grove Park Elementary 172 Ed Paulk No x x 15 1643 Miller Street Orange Park 272-8140 65 CD Lakeside middle School 248 Bill Knowles No x C) 2750 Moody Road Orange Park 272-8135 156 Don Thompson No x x x 27 Montclair Elementary 2752 Moody Road Orange Park 272-8125 x x 65 Orange Park Middle School 232 Thomas Moore No x 1500 Gano Avenue orange Park 272-8145 55 S. Bryan Jennings Elementary 218 Sara Reese No x x 215 Corona Drive Orange Park 272-8165 192 Carol BroxtOn No x No No 65 Lakeside Elementary 2752 Moody Road Orange Park 272-8135 mmm on TABLE 38 SHELTER INVENTORY - CLAY Coumrry (comuNuED) Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation, Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Orange Park Elementary 112 Donald Sohm No X X 18 Plainfield & Stiles orange Park 272-8155 Doctors Inlet Elementary 147 William Turner No X X X 1i P. 0. Box 66 Doctors Inlet 272-0557 C) J. L. Wilkinson Elementary 232 Millie Wilkes No X X 25 State Road 218 Middleburg 282-5494 middleburg High School 602 Ira Strickland Yes X X 22 3802 State Road 220 Middleburg 282-9325 Middleburg Elementary 134 Twila Shrevisburg No X X X 20 P. 0. Box 148 Middleburg 282-4611 X 15 Green cove Springs Elementary 540 Jim Gainey No X X P. 0. Box 308 Green Cove Springs 284-3376 Bennett Elementary 178 Ray Jenner No X X X 20 Rt. 2 Box 295 Green Cove Springs TABLE 38 SHELTER INVENTORY - CLAY COU,@Ty (CONTINUM) Vulnerability An&lysis WATER/SEUER --Do EMERGENCY D Elevation Floo6 Plazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Indepan6. Ki tchen Stoc%ed (feet) N 0 No 50 Clay High School 602 Gerald Gusvjiler N o X P. 0. Box 608 Green Cove Springs 284-6530 !,@Zystone Heights Junior-High 384 Dav4d Owens No X 140 P. 0. Box 706 "aystons Heights A 473-2761 J.50 o -1eights Elementary 154 Hubert ffhitn ystone 0. Box 7207 ,I.ystone Heights 473-4844 TABLE 39 SHELTER INVENTORY - PUTNAM COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevation FloodHazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY1 MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Independ. Kitchen Stocked (feet) riosley Elementary School 430 James Holt No x x x 75 1100 Husson Avenue Palatka 328-3012 ;,elley Smith Elementary 1,072 Lee Shiver 00 x x 75 2 blocks S. of SR-20 Francis 325-3029 15 C) Jenkins Middle School 399 Phil Alvers NO x x North 19 Street Palatka 325-4085 Crescent City High 2,332 Joel Hull Yes x x 20 US-17 Crescent city 325-3810 Melrose Community School 767 Doug Grant No x x x 100 off State Road 26 Melrose 328-5763 Yes Water Sewage 'A' x 100 interlachen High �chool 2,332 Chelsea Merritt Disposal off state Road 20 interlachen 328-3638 TABLE SHELTER INVENTORY BAKER COUNTY Vulnerability Analysis EMERGENCY WATER/SEWER FOOD Elevationt Flood Hazard SHELTER (Address/Phone) CAPACITY MANAGER GENERATOR Depend. Indepand. Kitchen Stocked (feet) Baker Cdun@y High 1500 Ronnie Davis No x x x Unknown East Jonathan Street Maccl enny 259-6286 141-stside Elementary 1000 Jerry Sisk NO x x X Unknown i@tadison Street Glen St. Mary 259-3330 CD Availability rate percent-ages in Tab'@'a 4-0,. show a shortage of sheltering space in St. Johns County. In that county, a special committee consisting of school board administrat4ve personnel, the Civil Defense Director, and American Red Cross personnel are aware cf the shortage. They are resolved to find and designate additional shelters by june 1984, the beginning of hurricane season. Table 35, Shelter Inventory-Duval County, does not list consolidated City of Jacksonville public buildings wMch also are available for shelters. Further, the Northeast Florida Chap- 6er 0? American Red Cross is seeking additional shelters (as of February 198-4); the Chapte- is in a negotiating stage with a number of churches and other privately-owned organizations in Duval County. i:,';': S'E27-71-ER DBVM-G A@ PC AVAUAWR, F-27,Y SHELTER POPULATION SHELTER AVAILABILITY COUNTY SEEKING SHELTER CAPACITY RATE Nassau 3,469 7,098 100% Duval 22,557*** 24,661 100% St. Johns 8,400 4,202 50% Flagler 3,492 5,910 100% Clay 3,128 4,955 100% Putnam 7,016 7,332 100% Based upon figures shown in Chapter V, Behavioral Survey; see page 78. Figures taken from sheltering inventory; based upon 20 square feet per person. Includes 1,165 evacuees from Ponte Vedra Beach area. Includes 5,975 spaces in public buildings owned by the Consolidated City of Jacksonville i0s HOSPITALS AND NURSYNG 'HIGMES In the beaches areas of -hree of tha -'our coastal counties, Nassau, Duval, and St. Johns, hospitals and nursing homes have been contacted to determine if they have local evacuation plans. Flagl--r County, the exception, has no hospitals or nursing homes on its coastal area. Nassau County. Storm surge --manating from a Category 4 landfalling hurricane (-striking 90 degrees relative to the coas-@-!-Ine) would endanger Amelia Island Care Center. The Center, which is located o-.@ 2700 Atlantic Avenue, is situated 19 feet above mean sea ieve; . The Center has an evacuation plan; by agree ment, the Center's clients would be moved to Arlington Manor Care Center in Jacksonville. Duval County. At Jacksonville Beach,, the Beaches Hospital located at 1430 16th Avenue South, which has a disastcar plan, -s situated approximately 20 feet above mean sea level and thUs would be affected by the storm surge coming from a Category 4 landfalling hurricane. The Hospital-@Ity Care Center of Jacksonville Beach, located at 1504 Seabreeze Avenue, has an agreement to move clients to three nursing homes located inland. They are Americana Health Care Center, Turtle Creek Health Care Center, and Jacksonvill'ie Convalescent Center. The Hospitality Care Center would be affected by the storm surge coming from a Category 3 land@alling hurricane. St. Johns County. The City of St. Augustine has one hospital and three nursing homes which would be affected by the storm surge emanating from a hurricane. Flagler Hospital located'at 159 Marine Street and St. Johns County Senior Citizen's Home located at 169 Marine Street are approximately five feet above mean sea level. Although across the Matanzas River from Anastasia Island, the side effect from the storm surge of a Category I hurricane entering St. Augustine Inlet would impact these facilities. Flagler Hospital's admini- strative personnel plan to resort to vertical evacuation as the building has three levels. The second level is at least 20 feet above mean sea level. Administrative personnel of the Senior Citizens Home plan to move their clients to the second floor of Flagler Hospitai. Flagler Hospital will accommodate the clients of yet another nursing home, the Buckingham Smith Memorial Home located at 169 Central Avenue. This home, approximately five feet above mean sea level, would be affected by the storm su'rge coming from a Category 3 hurrilicane. Silmer Nursing Home located at 189 San Marco Avenue would be affected by 'he storm surge coming from a Category 2 hurricane. This home 4s approximatelyLeight feet above mean sea level. Gilmer Nursing Home will move clients (by existing agreement) to both hospitals in the City of St. Augustine, Flagler Hospilt-al and St. Augustine General. Gilmer's administrators also will have their c'ilients moved to the St, Augustine Geriatric, Center and to the Ramada Inn (in the City of St. Augustine), to Putnam Memorial Hospital in Palatka, and to Lake Shore Nursing Home in Crescent City. RECOMMENDATXON It is recommended that the special committee in St. Johns County consisting of administrative personnel from the School Board and the local chapter of American Red Cross plus the Civil Defense Director continue their effort to seek and design- nate additional public shelter space. Members of that committee are Messrs. Steve Hand, Wally Baughn, John Atkins, and Douglas Stewart of the St. Johns County School Board; Mr. Bill Tyler, Mrs. Stuart Crouch, and Ms, Irene Pace of the Ameri,can Red Cross; and Mr. Gary Rodehorst, St. Johns County C2v;l Defense Director. 106 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS A. It is recommended that 'local governments: 1. Take measures as necessary to preserve existing primary dunes, to prohibit excavation on other development on the landward toe of any primary dune, to prohibit breaches of primary dunes, and to fill and stabilize existing breaches of primary dunes with vegetation. See page 28. 2. Stipulate in the approval of developments located within a hurricane hazard (vulnerable) area that all t4tle transfers to property shall be accompanied by a hazard disclosure statement that the property in the particular development is within a hurricane hazard area in which property is subject to damage and residents may be subject to an evacuation order in the event of a hurricane landfalling within 50 miles of the development. See page 28. B. It is recommended that the special committee in St. Johns County consisting of administrative personnel from the School Board and the local chapter of American Red Cross plus the Civil Defense Director continue their effort to seek and designate additional public shelter space. Members of that com- mittee are Messrs. Steve Hand, Wally Baughn, John Atkins, and Douglas Stewart of the St. Johns County School Board; Mr. Bill Tyler, Mrs. Stuart Crouch, and Ms. Irene Pace of the American Red Cross; and Mr. Gary Rodehorst, the St. Johns County Civil Defense Director. See page 106. 107 I I I I I I I I APPENDIX A I ExCERPTS TAKEN FROM @ "THE FORMATION OF TIDAL INLETS I IN BARRIER ISLAND CHAINS" I I I I .. I I I I AP,PEW07.X A Excerpts taken from "The Formation of Tidal Inlets In Barrier Island Chains," abstract produced by Steve Hughes, Graduate Assistant, University of Florida. B. INLET FORMATION BY ATTACK FROM THE SEAWARD SIDE: Large storms are usually accompanied by a rise in sea level elevation, termed the storm surge, which is generated by the onshore wind shear stress over the water.surface, resulting `n F, lopiling up" of water along the coastline. These storm surges, along w1th their huge wind- generated waves, are respo,nsi,b)e for major flooding and erosion of the coastal areas. At times these waves are capable of overtopping the frontal dunes, which are usually the highest feature on t@ie barrier island. Once the water associated with these waves has passed over the highest point of the barrier, then it must continue to flow down the back face of the island and into the lagoon, by reason of both the kinetic energy involved in the water's forward momentum and the potential energy due to its height above still-water level in the lagoon. If the flow can be channeled and if frictional losses are small, the available energy may be sufficient to cut a channel by transporting the barrier island sediments and depositing them in the lagoon. The uneven topography which channels the flow can come about by natural processes, such as the initial building of the barrier island or wind-scouring of dunes; or they may arise by human endeavors, such. as cuts made through the dunes to provide access to the beach. Lack of vegetation in this erosional channel certainly helps to reduce the initial frictional losses. The process is further aided by the fact that the still-water level in the lagoon is usually@lower than the surge level on the ocean side, due to the time-lag fnvolved in transferring the excessstorm surge water into the lagoon through existing inlets. This allows additional erosion to occur, after the channel has been cut down to the surge level, by vi'rtue of both for- ward wave momentum and by the head difference between ocean and bay. There are three important determining factors upon which the formation of the new inlet i8 dependent. These are, the slope of the back side of the barrier island, the width of the barrier island, and the depth of the lagoon adjacent to the barrier island. If the slope is small, or the island is wide, or a combInation of these two, then it is likely that the water will not obtain sufficient velocity to erode deeply into the channel due to both frictional losses and percolation of the water into the barrier island. The sediment that is transported will be deposited in the form of an "overwash fan" which further reduces the slope and increases the distance over which the water must travel. Alternately, a shallow lagoon adjacent to the barrierwill cause a rapid build-up of the overwash fan which then forms into a series of distributaries and effectively spreads out the flow, lessening the probability of erosion to a depth sufficient to cut below still-water level. From the above discussion it can be concluded that tidal inlets formed by overtopping from the ccean side will most likely occur where the following conditions are met: 1. The barrier is narrow, and the back slope of the island is steep, which keeps the frictional losses to a minimum by decreasing the dis- tance the water must trave-P. This and the sleep slope allows higher water velocities which in turn move mere sediment. 2. The initial barrier topography is such that the overwash is chan- neled, and to a lesser extent, the vegetation is sparse. 3. The adjacent @agocn is sufficiently deep to cause deposition of that eroded material into an cverwash "ar without the formation of a series of distributaries which spread out -,.-he flow, or without a significant decrease of the slope. An example of an inlet formation by.016-tack from the seaward side was documented by EI-Ashry and Wanless (1965), and occurred on the North Carolina coast just to the north of Cape Hatteras. Historical records are full of similar examples of storm-related inlet openings. C. INLET FORMATION BY ATTACK FROM THE LAGOON SITE: Pierce also theorized that inlets could also be formed during a storm by water attack from the lagoon side of a barrier island. Noting that tropical storms are often characterized by a sudden reversal of wind direction from onshore to offshore, he felt that sufficient momentum could be imparted to the lagoonal water to cause a breakthrough of the barrier island. During onshore winds the water is "piled up" on the ocean side; and if the lagoon is large enough, the lagoonal water will also "pile up" along the coast of the mainland, resulting in an exceptionally low water level to the lee of the barrier island. As before,there is a lag time neces- sary for the existing inlets to allow the ocean surge to pass. After passage of the center of the storm, a sometimes rapid wi nd shift to the offshore direction can take place which lowers the storm surge level on the ocean side of the barrier and leaves the water, which was piled up on the mainland, unsupported. This unsupported mass of water will rush across the lagoon under the force of gravity, aided by the offshore wind, and slam against the landward side of the barrier island. In a large lagoon this surge can contain a huge amount of water which is capable of overtopping the island in low spots. If there is a topo- graphical feature to channel the water, then erosion can occur in the same fashion as described earlier. This is illustrated in Figure 7b. Pierce points out that tidal channels and creeks are nearly always present in the marshes and barrier flats, and are somdtimes connected to low spots in the dune fields. These provide a limited number of access points for the huge volume of water, and can channel the flow until the foredunes are overtopped and gravity takes over. If there are no chan- nels present, then little damage will be done by this surging lagoon water. V2 Once the water has reached the top of the foredune it rushes down the relatively steep foreshore, sweeping eroded sedi'ment with it. Since the ocean level is now lower than normal, this overtopping can erode a channel below the usual sea level, forming a new tidal inlet. Sediment deposited at the end of this channel is reworked by the waves and hence, no overwash fan i's formed to hInder the flow,, The main criteria for inlet formation by attack from the lagoon side are: 1. A large, fairly wide lagoon which experiences substantial wave setup during high winds, with sufficient depth to minimize frictional losses. 2. A sudden wind reversal from the onshore direction to the offshore direction. 3. Tidal creeks and channels must be present on the landward side of the barrier island to the channel and concentrate the flow over the dune field. A-3 I I I I I I I I I APPENDIX B I SPLASH MODEL I I I I I ., I I I I APPENDIX B SPLASH MODEL The SPLASH model is a mathematical model which utilizes a linearized form of the equations of motion. The equations have been converted to finite ampli- tude form and are applied to a grid system. Information required on this grid before computations can proceed are the hurricane data mentioned on pages 9 and 10 as well as the values of the depths of the continental shelf. The re- presentation of the depths is termed the bathemetry and has already been com- pleted for all of the U. S. coastline. From previous studies, it has been shown that the shallower the water on the continental shelf, the higher the storm-surge will be. As the water is shallower at Jacksonville Beach compared to Daytona Beach, a hurricane with the same speed, direction, delta-p, and RMW will produce a larger peak surge value at Jacksonville Beach. The grid points along the shoreline are considered the shoreward boundary of the model and allow no water to move inland (i.e. a vertical wall). If the barrier islands are high enough, then this boundary condition is an excellent one. If the barrier islands are low, inland flooding may occur and the loca- tion of the highest surge values may be inland away from the beach front. However, the SPLASH model assumes a vertical wall at the shoreline. Therefore, careful interpretation of the results is required in this case. I I I I I I I I I APPENDIX C I SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE FORM I I I I I i I I I I I BEHAVIORAL SuRvEy FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA HURRICANE EVACUATION PLAN Cal 1 No Resident's Address: Attemp 1 2 3 4 5 Detail Date Time m. m. m. m. m. Result Telephone Number: Person, Time & Date for call- back (name) (time-T- m. /83 INTERVIEWER: IF INITIAL RESPONDENT IS APPARENTLY AN ADULT AND, THEREFORE, POSSIBLY THE DESIRED RESPONDENT (HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR DECISION-MAKER CONCERNING WHAT TO DO BEFORE A HURRICANE) CONTINUE; OTHERWISE, MAKE AN APPOINTMENT TO CALL BACK AT A TIME THAT THE RESPONDENT CAN BE REACHED. INTRODUCTION: "Hello, my name is and I am working on the Hurricane Plan being prepared by the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council. May I speak to someone who would help decide what to do if a hurricane threatened? (INTERVIEWER, IF PERSON WITH WHOM YOU ARE SPEAKING IS A DESIRED RESPONDENT, CONTINUE WITH ....... "Your answers to a few brief questions will be greatly appreciated." 1. Do you live in a: a. Single-family home b. Apartment building c. Condominium building d. Mobile home e. Other (specify) 2. For this next question, please assume that everyone is home and you were ordered by a governmental authority to evacuate. How soon could you be ready and would you leave? (PAUSE: IF NO RESPONSE, ASK) a. Immediately 6iK b. Certain number of hours number c. Never APPENDIX C V 3. How many people live in your home including yourself? number 4. Do you and members of your household live in the area during the months of June through November? Yes ( No ( 5. Do you and members of your household live in the area also during the months of December through May? Yes ( ) No ( 6. How many vehicles are there in your household? (IF NONE, SKIP TO 6b) number 6a. (IF THERE ARE VEHICLES, ASK) How many vehicles would you use during an evacuation? (SKIP TO QUESTION 7) number 6b. (IF "NONE" IN QUESTION 6) Would you need transportation such as a bus or a taxi? Yes ( ) No ( 7. Is there anybody who could not be evacuated without help from outside your home? Yes ( ) No ( 8. After leaving, where would you go? (PAUSE, IF NO RESPONSE, ASK) a. To a designated Red Cross Shelter b. To a friend or relative c. And in what county would that be please? (Take a City Name, if Necessary) d. To a hotel or motel (IF "YES" ASK) e. And in what county would that be please? (Take a City Name, if Necessary) f. Don't know (DO NOT READ "DON'T KNOW") 9. What route would you take to get to a shelter, friend or relative, or motel, i.e., what major highway or street? 10. Have you ever experienced a direct hurricane strike? Yes No If "Yes", where was that, when, and name the hurricane. 11. Mr./Mrs. into which age group do you belong? 35 & Under 35-49 50-64 65 & Over C-1 in COASTAL SERVICES CTR LIBRARY I 38 14111094 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1