    [From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

           TOWN OF TOPSAIL BEACH9 NORTH CAROLINA

           HURRICANE EVACUATION, HAZARD MITIGATION

                                        AND

                POST-DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION PLAN

             HV                    JUNE, 1984
             555
             .N8
             T6
             1984

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                                 TOPSAIL BEACH, NORTH CAROLINA

                            HURRICANE EVACUATION, HAZARD MITIGATION

                                              AND

                               POST-DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION PLAN

                                          prepared by

                               GEORGE EICHLER & ASSOCIATES, INC.

                                          JUNE, 1984

                 The preparation of this report was financed in part through
                 a grant provided by the North Carolina Coastal Management
                 Program, through funds provided by the Coastal Zone
                 Management Act of 1972, as amended, which is administered by
                 the Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National
                 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

                                                              U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA
    									    COASTAL SERVICES CENTER
    									    	   SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE
    											SC 29405- 2413

                                          TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                               PAGE

                     1.  INTRODUCTION                                          1

                    II.  TOPSAIL BEACH HURRICANE HAZARD                        2
                         MITIGATION PLAN

                         A.  EXISTING DEVELOPMENT                              2
                         B.  HAZARD AREAS IN TOPSAIL BEACH                     3
                         C.  EXISTING DEVELOPMENT LOCATED                      8
                             IN HAZARD AREA
                         D.  ESTIMATED SEVERITY OF POSSIBLE
                             HAZARD AREA DAMAGES                               11
                         E.  ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT IN
                             HAZARD AREAS                                      12
                         F.  EXISTING TOPSAIL BEACH HAZARD AREA
                             MITGATION POLICIES AND REGULATIONS                12
                         G.  REC OMM ENDED HAZARD MITIGATION
                             POLICIES                                          14

                   III.  TOPSAIL BEACH POST DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION
                         PLAN                                                  15

                         A.  INTRODUCTION                                      15
                         B.  ORGANIZATION  OF LOCAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
                             TEAM                                              16
                         C.  DAMAGE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES AND REQUIREMENTS     18
                         D.  ORGANIZATION OF RECOVERY OPERATIONS               20
                         E.  REC OMM ENDED RECONSTRUCTION POLICIES             24

                    IV.  TOPSAIL ISLAND HURRICANE EVACUATION PLAN              28

                         A. TOPSAIL BEACH EVACUATION PLAN                      28
                         B. SURF CITY EVACUATION PLAN                          29
                         C.  TRAFFIC ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR EVACUATION
                             ROUTES                                            30

                   APPENDIX - DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FORMS

                                       1. INTRODUCTION

                 The North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission has adopted
                 rules for 'Storm Hazard Planning" which require the
                 incorporation of such a planning program into the land use
                 plans that local coastal communities are required to prepare.

                 The Commission's rules are designed to implement a storm
                 hazard planning process that is outlined in Before the Storm:
                 Manaoina Development to Reduce Hurricane Damacies. That pub-
                 lication was prepared for the Office of Coastal Management of
                 the North Carolina Department of Natural Resources and
                 Community Development to be used as a guide for local
                 planning efforts.

                 In Before the Storm, Topsail Island was used as a case study
                 to illustrate how the storm hazard planning process should
                 work. Hazard area maps were prepared as part of that under-
                 taking. However hazard information on Topsail Beach and Surf
                 City used in the case study has been significantly revised
                 during the past year. Additionally, Before the Storm
                 includes only a cursory examination of storm reconstuction
                 planning for both Topsail Beach and Surf City. Consequently,
                 the objective of this project is to build on the information
                 contained in Before the Storm and present storm hazard miti-
                 gation and post-disaster reconstruction plans which 1) meet
                 the specific needs of Topsail Beach, and 2) conform with the
                 State rules for storm hazard planning.

                 The remainder of this report describes Topsail Beach's storm
                 hazard planning program. Chapter II presents the Town's
                 Storm Hazard Mitigation Plan. Chapter III presents the
                 Town's Post Disaster Reconstruction Plan. Chapter IV pre-
                 sents recommendations related to Hurricane Evacuation opera-
                 tions ef+ecting both Topsail Beach and Surf City.

                       II. TOPSAIL BEACH HURRICANE HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN

                  A. EXISTING DEVELOPMENT

                  Topsail Beach has developed as a vacation/second home
                  community, with permanent residents representing only about
                  V. of its seasonal population.

                  Table I shows the permanent, average seasonal and peak sea-
                  sonal populations of the Town for the years 1975, 1980, 1990,
                  and 2000 based on data included in the Topsail Beach Land Use
                  Plan.

                                                TABLE I

                                      TOPSAIL BEACH POPULATION

                                      PEAK              AVERAGE
                  YEAR              SEASONAL            SEASONAL          PERMANENT

                  1975                4110                3140              200
                  igeo                5310                4060              220
                  1990                7720                5890              260
                  2000                10120               7720              300

                  There are 354 acres of land zoned      for residential    purposes
                  within the Town. About 55*/. is already developed for residen-
                  tial purposes at an average town-wide density of about 4
                  units per acre. About 160 acres of developable land remains
                  vacant. Although vacant lots are scattered throughout the
                  Town, the largest undeveloped tracts are generally located on
                  the northeast side of the Town above Empie Street.

                  Based on 1980 data, the rates of peak seasonal visitors per
                  dwelling unit is betwe@en 8 and 9 persons per unit. If the
                  same ratio is used to project future needs, another 500 to
                  600 housing units would have to be constructed in the Town to
                  accomodate the year 2000 peak seasonal population. There are
                  indications that higher density development is starting to
                  occur within the Town to accomodate this demand.

                  There are now about 653 residential units in the town that
                  are either existing or under construction. The construction
                  of single units on individual lots is the norm for the town,
                  with the major exception being the 120 unit Queens Grant
                  development which is currently under construction on the
                  ocean side of Anderson Boulevard just south of Dolphin Pier.

                  There are 37 non-residential structures in Topsail Beach.
                  These structures are concentrated in the center of town
                  generally between Crews Street and Davis Street.

                                                 2

                 Topsail Beach does not have a central sewer system.
                 Individual septic systems are utilized throughout the Town.
                 A central water supply system is supplied by three deep
                 wells. Because the recharge area is located on the mainland,
                 the Topsail Beach Land Use Plan concluded that the
                 "possibilities of contamination from on-site disposal systems
                 are almost non-existent.'

                 B. HAZARD AREAS IN TOPSAIL BEACH

                 Topsail Beach contains a full-range of storm hazard areas.
                 Areas of Environment Concern (AECs) include: ocean erodible
                 AECs; inlet hazard AECs; flood hazard AECs; and estuarine
                 shoreline AECs. Other hazard areas include the 100 year
                 flood zone and the finger canals located at the northern end
                 of the Town opposite Dolphin Pier.

                 Ocean Erodible AECs

                 These are areas where a substantial possibility of excessive
                 erosion and significant shoreline fluctuation exists. The
                 ocean erodible AEC is based on a setback from the first line
                 of stable natural vegetation plus an additional area where
                 erosion can be expected from storm surges and wave action.

                 When the case study in Before the Storm was developed, the
                 State rule was to multiply the annual erosion Pate factor by
                 30 to determine the boundary of the ocean erodible AEC. This
                 rule has now been modified to use 60 rather than 30 as the
                 multiplier. The practical effects of this change in Topsail
                 Beach was to increase the ocean erodible AEC from 195 feet to
                 255 feet for 1.8 miles on the northern most sector of the
                 Town and from 215 -feet to 275 feet along the remaining 3
                 miles of ocean frontage.

                 Inlet Hazard AECs

                 An inlet hazard area is a natural hazard area that is
                 especially vulnerable to erosion, flooding and other adverse
                 effects of sand, wind, and water because of its proximity to
                 dynamic ocean inlets. New Topsail Inlet on the southern end
                 of the Town is currently migrating to the southwest adding
                 land to Topsail Beach. However, this inlet hazard areao
                 which consists of all the land south of Trout Avenue is still
                 considered to be very unstable.

                 Estuarine Shoreline AECs

                 Estuarine shorelines are defined as non-ocean shorelines
                 which are especially vulnerable to erosion, flooding or other
                 adverse effects of wind and water and are intimately con-
                 nected to the estuary. In Topsail Beach, the estuarine
                 shoreline encompasses the area landward from Banks Channel
                 for a distance of 75 feet from the mean high water level for

                                               3

                 about 4.8 miles.

                 Figure I dipicts the Topsail Beach ocean erodible, inlet
                 hazard and estuarine shoreline AECs. Development is not
                 prohibited in any of these AECs. However, it must conform
                 with use and construction standards delineated in the State
                 Guidelines for Areas of Environmental Concern.

                 Flood Hazard AECs

                 The flood hazard AEC corresponds to the National Flood Insur-
                 ance Program V-zones, which refer to flood prone areas that
                 are also susceptible to high velocity wave surges. New data
                 indicates that the size of the 'VI zones in Topsail Beach
                 was significantly overestimated in Before the Storm.

                 Topsail Beach was converted to the Regular Phase of the
                 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) in 1977 with the
                 issuance of Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS). In the fall
                 of 1983, new detailed Flood Insurance Studies for the town
                 were released by FEMA. A comparison of the 1977 and 1983
                 maps reveals considerable changes to the designation of flood
                 hazard areas. The OVO zones, or areas subject to high
                 velocity water from wave momentum during the 100-year flood,
                 cover considerably less land on the new maps.

                 The original FIRM designated 95"/. of Topsail Beach as being in
                 uV" zones. The remaining 5;/. were designated as "A" zones, or
                 areas subject to little or no wave action but within the 100-
                 year flood area. The revised maps designate the beachiront
                 area on the oceanside of Ocean Boulevard and Anderson Boule-
                 vard and the area southwest of Godwin Street (the inlet
                 hazard area) as OV" zones with base flood elevations of from
                 13-17 feet. The new maps designate about 25*/. of the town as
                 being in OV" zones. Marsh and waterways behind Topsail
                 Island were originally designated as "V" zones but are no
                 longer so designated.

                 Other Flood Prone Areas

                 When Before the Storm was prepared, the entire Town of
                 Topsail Beach was estimated to be in the "An zone below the
                 100 year flood elevations, with 95*/. of this area also being
                 in the "V"-zone. The new FEMA flood insurance rate maps
                 indicate that most of the Town remains below the 100 year
                 flood elevations.

                 The new study indicates that 100-year flood elevations on the
                 landward side of the Island will vay from 9 to 11 feet. A
                 narrow strip of land about 50' to 150' in width between the
                 beach and Ocean Boulevard is designated as being in Zone "B".
                 An area between Fields and Humphrey is also in a 'B" zone.
                 "B" zones are areas lying between the 100-year and 500-year
                 flood. The remainder of the town, basically everything

                                                4

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                                                 MUM SrRXM HAZARD PLANNINE                                                                                                                                              WORM

               landward of the "B" zone and northeast of Godwin, lies in "A"
               zones with base flood elevations of from 10-13 feet. The
               1983 study estimates that beach+ront erosion resulting from a
               100-year storm surge will range from 154 feet at the north-
               eastern City limits to 215 feet between Crocker and Darden.

               Finaer Canal Areas

               There are two areas in Topsail Beach where finger canals have
               been cut from the Banks Channel toward the ocean. A major
               storm could breach the beach at these locations, cutting off
               all southward areas from the remainder of the Island and from
               the mainland.

               The first series of 3 finger canals is located at the south-
               ern end of the Town south of Trout Avenue. The canals are
               only 300 feet from the ocean, with only a road and a narrow
               beach with low dunes in between.

               The second series of finger canals is located 400 feet
               from the ocean on the northern end of the Town just south of
               the Dolphin Pier. The dunes in this area are higher than at
               the southern end of the Island and offer better protection.
               However, there is still a possibility that a very major storm
               could broach the beach at this point.

               Figure 2 depicts the areas within the Town of Topsail Beach
               that are susceptible to flooding of varying severity. The
               two finger canal areas are also highlighted.

                                             6

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                                           COASIAL SrORM HAZARD PLANNINE                                                                                                                         GEORM E

                   C. EXISTING DEVELOPMENT LOCATED IN HAZARD AREAS

                   In'Before the Storm, the following system, shown in Table 1,
                   for classifying hazard areas was presented.

                                                TABLE I

                                      DEFINITION OF HAZARD AREAS

                          Forces Present/Expected

                                    Wave                Hiah
                   Area Erosion @Action Floodina Winds          Boundaries

                   I       x         x         x          x     Ocean erodible AECs,
                                                                inlet hazard AECs,
                                                                estuarine shoreline
                                                                AECs

                   2                 x         x          x     Flood insurance V-

                                                                zones

                   3                           x          x     Flood insurance A-

                                                                zones

                   4                                      x     Rest of community

                   The number of structures within each hazard area based on
                   the above classifications was then determined as follows.

                                                TABLE 2

                          STRUCTURES BY HAZARD AREA FROM BEFORE THE STORM

                       Area            Residential Units           Commercial Units

                        1                      298                         11
                        2                      312                         26
                        3                        1                          0
                        4                        0                           0

                    Total                      611                         37

                   The above analysis tends   to be somewhat misleading    in that
                   all the AECs included in   Area I were also in the Flood Insur-
                   ance V zone (Area 2). There+ore, the 312 residential units

                                                   8

                  were not the total number of units in the V zone, but instead
                  refers to only those units located in the V zone that were
                  not also included in one of the other AEC areas. In
                  actuality, 610 residential units were located in the V zone.

                  Based on this earlier data, only one structure in the entire
                  Town was located in an area that was not susceptible to ero-
                  sion and wave action and that structure was susceptible to
                  flooding and high winds as are all other structures in the
                  Town.

                  The AEC boundaries have been revised significantly since the
                  hazard maps used in Before the Storm were prepared in order
                  to reflect:

                       �   Significant enlargement of the ocean erodible AEC
                           area in accordance with new Coastal Resource Com-
                           mission rules.

                       �   Significant reduction of the V zone to reflect new
                           FEMA flood insurance rate maps.

                       �   Significant enlargement of the flood insurance A zone
                           to reflect the reduction of the V zone.

                       �   Existence of the narrow strip running approximately
                           85 percent of the length of the Town that is
                           located outside of the primary hazard areas. The
                           land in this strip appears to be susceptible only
                           to damage resulting from high winds.

                  Figure 3 is a composite hazard area map based on this new
                  data. The number of structures within each hazard area
                  category are presented in Table 3 below.

                                               TABLE 3

                                     STRUCTURES BY HAZARD AREA

                  Hazard Area
                   Category            Residential Units          Commercial Units

                       1                    288                           14
                       2                      0*                           0*
                       3                    3551                          27
                       4                      6**

                  Total                     653                           41

                     There are actually 4   commercial stuctures and 113 residen-
                     tial units located in the V zone that are already included
                     in AECs included in Hazard Area Category 1.

                                                   9

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                                             COASTAL SrVRM HAZARD PLANNINE                                                                                                                            GE04KE E"

                    It is estimated that 60 other residential structures are
                    located above the 100 year flood elevation. However,
                    these structures are within the ocean erodible area and
                    are therefore included in Hazard Area Category 1.

                 Topsail Beach does not have a central sewer system. Indi-
                 vidual septic systems and the Town's wells are all located
                 within the 100 year flood plain.

                 There are no potentially hazardous material storage or
                 disposal sites at Topsail Beach.

                 D. ESTIMATED SEVERITY OF POSSIBLE HAZARD AREA DAMAGES

                 In 1982, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers surveyed existing
                 structures at Topsail Beach in order to estimate the monetary
                 damages to each structure which could result from flooding
                 associated with different storm events. The damages associ-
                 ated with the 500 year storm were estimated to be $18 million
                 for residential structures and $4 million for commercial
                 structures. The average damage to a residential structure
                 would have been about $30,000 and the average damage to a
                 commercial structure was estimated at $110,000. Based on
                 these estimates and pervailing 1982 market values, it has
                 been estimated that the average structure would incur 50Y.
                 damage from storm of this magnitude. Using these same
                 assumptions, the 500 year storm occurring in 1984 would
                 result in an estimated $28 million in damages.

                 The Corps study estimated that $10.1 million in residential
                 damages and $2.6 million in commercial damages would result
                 from the 100 year storm. The estimated $2.6 million in
                 commercial property damages would not change because all of
                 these structues remain within the 100 year floodplain.
                 However, there are now 647 residential structures (versus the
                 610 in 1982) located within the 100 year flood plain and/or
                 in other AEC areas that are susceptible to hurricane damage.
                 If each of these structures receives the same average amount
                 of damages as was estimated in the Corps study, the resulting
                 damages from the 100 year storm would be about $13.3
                 million.

                 According to the Town's Land Use Plan, about $13 million (or
                 38Y.) of the Town's tax base was accounted for by oceanfront
                 properties. It is expected that this percentage has
                 increased and will continue to increase because most new de-
                 velopment is occurring on the oceanside of Anderson Boule-
                 vard. Additionally, it was estimated that property in the
                 inlet hazard area was worth over $7 million (about 20% of the
                 Town's tax base). This data provides another indication of
                 the magnitude of property damage that could result from a
                 major storm.

                E. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT IN HAZARD AREAS

                About 160 acres of developable land remains vacant in Topsail
                Beach. It was previously estimated that between 500 and 600
                new housing units will have to be consturcted in the Town if
                the peak seasonal population actually increases by 90 percent
                between 1980 and 2000 as is projected in the Topsail Beach
                Land Use Plan. If developed at historical densities, these
                new units would utilize all the developable land still
                available within the Town. However, a trend toward higher
                density development is already apparent.

                The only area in Town located outside the V and A zone flood
                hazard areas is the narrow strip on the ocean side of
                Anderson Boulevard. Howeyerp most of this area is located
                in the ocean erodible area AEC. Consequently, it can be
                anticipated that almost all future development within the
                Town will be located in hazard areas. The primary issue is
                to insure that this development is constructed in a manner
                that minimizes damages when an inevitable major storm occurs.

                F. EXISTING TOPSAIL BEACH HAZARD MITIGATION POLICIES AND
                    REGULATIONS

                The growth policy of Topsail Beach as stated in the Town's
                Land Use Plan is for gradual and controlled increases in
                single family residential development at existing growth
                rates, with only limited growth in supporting retail services
                and other uses encouraged.

                Topsail Beach has adopted a full range of policies and
                regulation to 1) support its growth policy, and 2) control
                development in hazard areas. Two primary ordinances, the
                zoning ordinance and the flooplain management regulation, are
                used to control development in hazard areas. The primary
                provisons of each of these ordinances related to hazard area
               .development are summarized below.

                Topsail Beach Zoning Ordinance

                1.  The flood insurance rate map is considered an overlay to
                    all existing zoning districts. Uses within the under-
                    lying districts are permitted only if they meet the re-
                    quirements of the Town's Floodplain Management regula-
                    tions. Special use permits are required +or any use in
                    the flood hazard overlay area.

                2.  Only single family residences and duplexes are permitted
                    in ocean erodible areas. Multi-family uses are permitted
                    with a special use permit. The special use permit
                    requires that dune protection measures be implemented in
                    order to receive the permit.

                                             12

               3.  Only single family residences and duplexes are permitted
                   in inlet hazard areas. Multi-family uses are permitted
                   onl y wi th a spec i al use permi t.

               4.  Multi-family structures are a permitted use only in the
                   business district. The Town has also lowered the per-
                   mitted multi-4amily density.

               5.  The maximum height in any district is limited to 36 feet.

               6.  Non-conforming uses may not be rebuilt in a residential
                   zoning district if reconstruction costs exceed 50 percent
                   of replacement cost.

               7.  Non-con+orming uses may not be rebuilt in a non-residen-
                   tial zoning district if reconstruction costs exceed 70
                   percent of replacement cost.

               8.  Non-conforming structures (i.e. those not meeting set-
                   backs and other requirements).may not be rebuilt in any
                   district if reconstruction costs exceed 75 percent of re-
                   placement cost.

               9.  The establishment of a mobile home park is not a permit-
                   ted use in any of the Town's zoning districts.

               Topsail Beach Floodplain Management Regulations

               The Town's floodplain management regulations meet all
               requirements for participation in the Regular Phase of the
               federal flood insurance program. Specific ordinace require-
               ments include:

                    1.  Non-residential structures must be elevated to 13
                        feet above MSL or +Ioodproo+ed.

                    2.  Structures in the V-zone must have open space or
                        breakaway walls below base flood elevations.

                    3.  Pilings, anchorages, and breakaway walls must be
                        approved by the building inspector.

                    4.  No dunes may be altered.

                    5.  No use of fill for structural support shall occur
                        in the V-zone

                    6.  No mobile homes may locate in the V-zone.

                                               13

                G. REC " ENDED HAZARD MITIGATION POLICIES

                Almost the entire Town of Topsail Beach is located in areas
                susceptible to storm damage. Recognizing this, the Town has
                already taken strong steps to insure that future development
                occurs in a manner that minimizes hazard damages. Speci-
                fically,

                     1.  The Town's growth policy encourages low density
                         residential development and avoids the higher den-
                         sity, high rise developments found in other coastal
                         communities.

                     2.  The Town's policies support and comply with State
                         policies and regulations -for development in Areas
                         of Environmental Concern.

                    3.   The Town's floodplain developmen*t policies con-form
                         with all Federal and State requirements.

                The basic conclusion is that Topsail Beach is already doing a
                good job to mitigate future storm damages and that the Town's
                policies meet both the requirements and philosophical
                objectives delineated in Before the Storm.

                The modification of only one Town policy is recommended. The
                non-conforming structure provision of the zoning ordinance
                currently permits the rebuilding of a non-con+orming struc-
                ture even it it sustains up to 75Z of the value of the
                structure. This should be modified so that if a structure
                sustains damages of up to 50Y. of the value of the structure
                it will not be rebuilt. The justification for this modifica-
                tion is that if a structure sustains 75% damage, it is for
                all practical purposes destroyed. There is no reason to
                allow the same situation to be repeated by permitting such a
                structure to be rebuilt at the same location.

                                               14

                      III. TOPSAIL BEACH POST-DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION PLAN

                  A. INTRODUCTION

                  A post-disaster reconstruction plan provides a program that
                  will permit a local government to deal with the aftermaths
                  of a storm in an organized and efficient manner. The Plan
                  provides the mechanisms, procedures, and policies that will
                  enable a local community to learn from its storm experiences
                  and to rebuild the community in a wise and practical manner.

                  A post-disaster reconstruction plan encompasses three dis-
                  tinct  reconstruction periods:

                      o  The emeraency period encompasses the period immediately
                         after a storm. The emphasis is on restoring public
                         health and safety, assessing the nature and extent of
                         storm damage, and qualifying for and obtaining what-
                         ever federal and state assistance might be available.

                      o  The restoration period covers the weeks and months fol-
                         lowing a storm disaster. The emphasis during this
                         period is on restoring community facilities, utilities,
                         essential businesses, etc. so that the community can
                         once again function in a normal manner.

                      o  The replacement reconstruction period is the period
                         during which the community is rebuilt. The period
                         could last from months to years depending on the
                         nature and extent of the damages incurred.

                  It is important that local officials clearly understand the
                  joint federal-state-local procedures for providing assist-
                  ance to rebuild after a storm so that local damage assess-
                  ment and reconstruction efforts are carried out in an
                  efficient manner that qualifies the community for the dif-
                  ferent types of assistance that are available. The require-
                  ments are generally delineated in the Disaster Relief Act of
                  1974 (P.L. 93-288) which authorizes a wide range of financial
                  and direct assistance to both local communities and indi-
                  viduals. The sequence of procedures to be followed after a
                  major storm is as follows.

                        1. Local damage assessment teams survey storm damage
                           within the community and report this damage to the
                           County Emergency Services Coordinator.

                        2. Damage information is compiled and summarized by the
                           County, and the nature and extent of damage is re-
                           ported to the North Carolina Division of Emergency
                           Management (DEM).

                        3. DEM compiles local data and makes recommendations to
                           the Govenor concerning state actions.

                                                 15

                       4. The Govenor may request a Presidential declaration
                          of "emergencyn or umajor disaster". A Presidential
                          declaration makes a variety of federal resources
                          available to local communities and individuals.

                       5. Federal relief assistance provided a community when
                          an "emergency" has been declared typically ends one
                          month after the initial Presidential declaration.
                          Where a "major disaster" has been declared, federal
                          assistance +or "emergency" work typically ends six
                          months after the declaration and federal assistance
                          for "permanent" work ends after IS months.

                 Federal disaster assistance programs previously provided aid
                 for communities to rebuild in the same way as existed before
                 the disaster occurred. This policy tended to foster reoccur-
                 ring mistakes. However, recent federal policy has started to
                 change the emphasis of disaster assistance programs.
                 Spec i + i cal I y,

                    �   Executive Order 1198 (Floodplain Management) directs
                        all federal agencies to avoid either directly or in-
                        directly supporting future unwise development in flood-
                        plains (e.g. through sewer grants in locations that
                        foster +Ioodplain development).

                    �   Section 406 of the Disaster Relief Act can require com-
                        munities, as a prerequisite for federal disaster assis-
                        tance, to take specific actions to mitigate future
                        flood losses.

                 The remainder of this chapter concerns recommendations
                 regarding 1) procedures that Topsail Beach should follow in
                 carrying out its damage assessment program so as to meet all
                 federal and state reuirements, and 2) reconstruction policies
                 that the Town should adopt to insure that future development
                 that does occur in local hazard areas is constructed in a
                 manner consistent with sound land use planning, public safety
                 considerations, and existing and evolving federal and state
                 pol i cy.

                 B. ORGANIZATION OF LOCAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM

                 A local damage assessment team should include individuals who
                 are qualified to give reliable estimates of the original
                 value of structures, an estimated value of sustained damages
                 and a description of the repairs (and costs) that will be
                 needed to rebuild each structure. Following is a listing of
                 Topsail Beach town personnel available to assume these re-
                 sponsibilities:

                                               16

                       Administrative
                       I Town Clerk
                       2 Office Personnel

                       Police
                       1 Police Chief
                       3 Officers

                       Public Works
                       I Supervisor
                       I Worker

                       EjLre Department
                        I Chief
                       26 Volunteer Firemen

                       Rescue Squad
                        I Chief
                       15 Members

                       Inspection Department
                       I Building Inspector

                       Town Officials
                       I Mayor
                       5 Commissioners

                 The Building Inspector should head the Damage Assessment
                 Team. The Public Works Supervisor should also be a member of
                 the Team. Other members of the team should consist of volun-
                 teers recruited from the community. Such volunteers must be
                 recruited, organized and trained prior to a storm occurrence.

                 The suggested make-up of the Topsail Beach Damage Assessment
                 Team  is as follows:

                    �   Building Inspector (Team Chief)
                    �   Public Works Supervisor
                    �   Local Property Appraiser (MAI)
                    �   Building Contractor * or Residential Realtor
                    �   Architect *

                   Community Volunteer

                 The Mayor should immediately undertake a recruitment effort
                 to secure the necessary volunteers and to establish a
                 training program to familiarize the members of the team with
                 required damage classification procedures and reporting
                 requirements. In doing so, it must be recognized that it
                 might be very difficult to fill certain positions, such as
                 the building contractor position, because the services of
                 individuals with such skills will likely be in great demand
                 after a storm disaster.

                                              17

                  C. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES AND REQUIREMENTS

                  Damage assessment is defined as a rapid means of determining
                  a realistic estimate of the amount of damage caused by a
                  natural or man-made disaster. For a storm disaster, it is
                  expressed in terms of 1) number of structures damaged, 2)
                  magnitude of damage by structure type, 3) estimated total
                  dollar loss, and 4) estimated total dollar loss covered by
                  insurance.

                  After a major storm event, members of the Damage Assessment
                  Team should report to the Emergency Operations Center prior
                  to deployment. There are over 650 structures in the Town.
                  The extent of damage will depend on the magnitude of the
                  storm and where landfall occurs on the North Carolina coast.
                  Because of the potentially large job at hand, the limited
                  personnel resources available to conduct the assessmentss and
                  the limited time within which the initial assessment must be
                  made, the first phase of the assessment should consist of
                  only an external visual survey of damaged structures. A more
                  detailed second phase assessment can be made after the
                  initial damage reports are filed.

                  The inital damage assessment should make an estimate of the
                  ext'ent of damage incurred by each structure and identify the
                  cause (wind, flooding, wave action, combination, etc) of the
                  damage to each structure.

                  Damaged structures should be classified in accordance with
                  the suggestd State guidelines as follows:

                     o  Destroyed (repairs would cost more than 80 percent of
                        value).

                     o  Major (repairs would cost more than 30 percent of the
                        value).

                     o  Minor (repairs would cost less than 30 percent of the
                        value, but the structure is currently uninhabtable).

                     o  Habitable (some minor damage, with repairs less than 15
                        percent of the value).

                  It will be necessary to thoroughly document each assessment.
                  In many cases, mail boxes and other information typically
                  used to identify specific structures will not be found.
                  Consequently, the Damage Assessment Team must be provided
                  with tax maps, other maps and photographic equipment in order
                  to record and document its field observations. Enough infor-
                  mation to complete the Damage Assessment Worksheet must be
                  obtained on each damaged structure. (Samples of damage
                  assessment worksheets are contained in the Appendix of this
                  report. The emphasis should be placed on completing the
                  worksheets and on providing documentation on the tax maps.

                                               18

                 To expidite the more detailed follow-up assessment, the Town
                 could consider using the Town of Long Beach's method of
                 coding* structures as to damage. Each category of damage is
                 given a color code. During initial damage assessment, the
                 appropriate color would be sprayed or painted on a corner of
                 the structure. The second phase of the damage assessment
                 operation will be to estimate the value of the damages
                 sustained. This operation should be carried out in the
                 Emergency Operations Center under the direction of the Mayor
                 and the supervision of the Town Clerk. The two other Town
                 Hall office personnel should be assigned to assist the Town
                 Clerk in carrying out this responsibility.

                 In order to estimate total damage values it will be neces-
                 sary to have the following information available for use at
                 the Emergency Operations Center:

                    o  A set of property tax maps identical to those utilized
                       by the damage assessment field team.

                    o  Copies of all Town property tax records. This informa-
                       tion should indicate the estimated value of all com-
                       mercial and residential structures within the Town.
                       Because time will be of the essence, it is recommended
                       that the Town immediately commence a project to list
                       the property values of all existing structures on the
                       appropriate lots on the set of property tax maps that
                       will be kept at the Emergency Operations Center. While
                       somewhat tedious job, the fact that there are less
                       than 700 structures in the Town makes this task man-
                       ageable. The information should prove invaluable if a
                       storm disaster does occur. This set of tax maps should
                       be updated annually prior to the hurricane season.

                 Additionally, the Town should make a request to Pender County
                 for the County to undertake a telephone survey of Pender
                 County lending institutions to determine the average value of
                 flood insurance coverage that is carried by Pender County
                 participants in the program. This information should be kept
                 available in the Emergency Operations Center for estimating
                 the value of sustained damages covered by hazard insurance.

                 In order to produce the damage value information required,
                 the following methodology is recommended:

                      1.  The number of businesses, and residential
                          structures that have been damaged within the town
                          should be summarized by damage classification cate-
                          gory.

                      2.  The value of each damaged structure should be ob-
                          tained from the marked set of town tax maps and
                          multiplied by the following percentages for the
                          appropriate damage classification categories.

                                               19

                             � Destroyed - 100Y.
                             � Major Damage - 50;/.
                             � M i nor Damage (un i nhab i tabl e) - 25%
                             � Habitable - 1OX

                      3.  The total value of damages for the Town should then
                          be summarized and reported as required to the County
                          Emergency Operations Center.

                      4.  The estimated value loss covered by hazard insurance
                          should then be determined by 1) estimating full cov-
                          erage for all damaged structures for situations
                          where the average value of such coverage exceeds the
                          amount of damage to the structure, and 2) multiply-
                          ing the number of structures where damage exceeds
                          the average value of insurance coverage by the aver-
                          age value of such coverage.

                 The Damage Assessment Plan is intended to be the mechanism
                 for estimating overall property damage in the event of a
                 civil disaster. The procedure recommended above represents
                 an approach +or-making a relatively quick, realistic "order
                 of magnitudeu damage estimate after a disaster.

                 D. ORGANIZATION OF RECOVERY OPERATIONS

                 Damage assessment operations are oriented to take place
                 during the emergency period. After the emergency operations
                 to restore public health and safety and the initial damage
                 assessments are completed, the State guidelines suggest that
                 a Recovery Task Force to guide restoration and reconstruction
                 activities be created. In Topsail Beach, the Mayor and
                 Council should assume the responsibilities of such a Task
                 Force in carrying out the following:

                      1.  Establishing reentry procedures.

                      2.  Establishing an overall restoration schedule.

                      3.  Setting restoration priorities.

                      4.  Determining requirements for outside assistance and
                          requesting such assistance when beyond local capa-
                          bilities.

                      5.  Keeping the appropriate County and State officials
                          informed using Situation and Damage Reports.

                      6.  Keeping the public informed.

                      7.  Assembling and maintaining records of actions taken
                          and expenditures and obligations incurred.

                                                20

                      8. Proclaiming a local "state of emergency' if war-
                         ranted.

                      9. Commencing cleanup, debris removal and utility res-
                         toration which would include coordination of
                         restoration activities undertaken by private utility
                         companies.

                     10. Undertaking repair and restoration of essential pub-
                         lic facilities and services in accordance with pri-
                         orities developed through the situation evaluations.

                     11. Assisting private businesses and individual property
                         owners in obtaining information on the various types
                         of assistance that might be available to them from
                         federal and state agencies.

                In Before the Storm, a sequence and schedule for undertaking
                local reconstruction and restoration activities is presented.
                The schedule was left deliberately vague because specific
                reconstruction needs will not be known until after a storm
                occurs and the magnitude of the damage can be assessed.
                Table 4 contains a sequence of activities and schedule to
                guide reconstruction activities. The schedule should be re-
                considered by the Mayor and Council and revised as necessary
                and appropriate after the damage assessment activities are
                completed.

                                               21

                                            TABLE 4

                        SEQUENCE OF ACTIVITIES FOR ASSESSING DAMAGES

                                AND PERMITTING RECONSTRUCTION

                         ACTIVITY                        TIME FRAME

                1.   Complete Initial Damage      Immediately after storm oc-
                     Assessment                   currence.

                2.   Complete Second Phase        Completed by second week
                     Damage Assessment            after the storm.

                3.   Prepare Summary of Re-       Completed one week after
                     construction Needs.          damage assessment is com-
                                                  p I e t e d .

                4.   Decision with Regard to      One week after damage assess
                     Imposition of Temporary      ment is completed.
                     Development Moratorium

                5.   Set Reconstruction           Completed one week after
                     Priorities and Prepare       summary of reconstruction
                     Master Reconstruction        needsis completed.
                     Schedule.

                6.   Begin Repairs to Criti-      As soon as possible after
                     cal Utilities and Faci-      disaster.
                     lities.

                7.   Permitting of Recon-         One week after damage assess
                     struction Activities         ment is completed.
                     for all Damaged Struc-
                     tures receiving minor
                     damage that are not
                     included in Develop-
                     ment Moratorium Areas

                8.   Permitting of Recon-         Two weeks after damage
                     struction Activities for     assessment is completed.
                     all Damaged Structures
                     receiving major damage
                     that are not included
                     in Development Moratorium
                     Areas

                     Initiate assessment of       Two weeks after damage
                     existing mitigation poli-    assessment is completed.
                     cies

                                                22

                10.  Complete Re-evaluation        Length of period for con-
                     of Hazard Areas and Miti-     ducting re-evaluations and
                     gation Policies in Areas      receiving input from State
                     Subject to Development        should not exceed two
                     moratorium.                   months.

                11.  Revise Mitigation Poli-       Two months after Temporary
                     cies and Development          Development Moratorium is
                     Standards for Areas Sub-      imposed.
                     jected to Development
                     Moratorium and Lift Devel-
                     opment Moratorium.

                12. Permit New Development         Upon suspension of any tem-
                                                   porary development mora-
                                                   torium.

                                                23

                 E. RECOMMENDED RECONSTRUCTION POLICIES

                 The following policies have been designed to be 1) considered
                 and adopted by the Topsail Beach Town Council prior to a
                 storm, or 2) implemented, as appropriate, after a storm
                 occurs.

                 REENTRY

                 1.  Reentry of Topsail Beach town residents to Topsail Island
                     shall not be permitted until 1) the damage assessments
                     have been completed, and 2) the Mayor proclaims the Town
                     safe to re-enter.

                 2.  A list of Topsail Beach (and Surf City and West Onslow
                     Beach) property owners shall be maintained at the
                     N.C. 210 and N.C. 50-210 bridge entrances to Topsail
                     Island. Valid identification must be shown in order to
                     proceed onto the Island. Passes shall be issued and dis-
                     played at all times until the State of Emergency is of-
                     fically lifted (this policy needs to be coordinated with
                     the Town of Sur+ City and with Onslow County).

                 PERMITTING

                 1.  Building permits to restore structures located outside of
                     designated AEC areas that were previously built in con-
                     formance with local codes, standards and the provisions
                     of the North Carolina Building Code shall be issued auto-
                     matically.

                 2.  All structures suffering major damages as defined in the
                     Town's Damage Assessment Plan shall be repaired or re-
                     built to conform with the provisions of the North Caro-
                     lina Building Code, the Topsail Beach Zoning Ordinance
                     and the Topsail Beach Floodplain Management Regulations.

                 3.  All structures suffering minor damage as defined in the
                     Topsail Beach Damage Assessment Plan shall be permitted
                     to be rebuilt to their original before the storm condi-
                     tion.

                 4.  For all structures in designated AECs, a determination
                     shall be made for each AEC as to whether the provisions
                     of the N.C. Building Codeo the State Regulations for
                     Areas of Environmental Concern and the Topsail Beach
                     Floodplain Management Regulations appeared adequate in
                     minimizing storm damages. For AECs where the construc-
                     tion and use requirements appear adequate, permits shall
                     be issued in accordance with permitting policies 1, 2 and
                     3. For AECs where the construction and use requirements
                     do not appear to have been adequate in mitigating
                     damages, a Temporary Development Moratorium for all
                     structures located within that specific AEC shall be im-

                                              24

                     posed and a request should be made to the North Carolina
                     Offic of Coastal Management to assist the Town re-evalu-
                     ating the requirements.

                    5. Permits shall not be issued in areas subject to a Tem-
                     porary Development Moratorium until such a moratorium is
                     lifted by the Topsail Beach Town Council.

                 UTILITY AND FACILITY RECONSTRUCTION

                 1.  All damaged water system components shall be repaired so
                     as to be elevated above the 100 year floodplain or shall
                     be floodproofed, with the methods employed and t@_e con-
                     struction being certified by a registered professional
                     engineer.

                 2.  Overhead power lines and utility poles along Anderson
                     Boulevard present the greatest obstacle to the safe
                     evacuation of Topsail Beach in the event of a major storm
                     disaster. The narrowness of the Islands prevents these
                     poles and lines from being relocated away from the road-
                     way. Additionall, relocating these lines underground
                     would be very costly at this time. However, if major
                     damage occurs as a result of a storm, the cost effective-
                     ness would improve and public safety considerations might
                     override economic considerations. Topsail Beach should
                     now request that Jones Onslow initiate an assessment of
                     the feasibility of relocating overhead power lines under-
                     ground if substantial damage to the existing system is
                     sustained during a major storm.

                 TEMPORARY DEVELOPMENT MORATORIUMS

                 Under certain circumstances, interim development moratoriums
                 can be used in order to give a local government time to
                 assess damages, to make sound decisions and to learn from
                 its storm experiences. Such a moratorium must be temporary
                 and it must be reasonably related to the public health,
                 safety and welfare.
                 There is no doubt that Topsail Beach will suffer heavy and
                 serious damages should a major storm have its landfall in the
                 vicinity of Topsail Island. Consequently, the Town should be
                 prepared to issue Temporary Development Moratoriums as appro-
                 pr i ate.

                 It is not possible to determine prior to a storm whether a
                 timporary development moratorium will be needed. Such a
                 measure should only be used if damage in a particular area is
                 very serious and if redevelopment of the area in the same
                 manner as previously existed would submit the residents of
                 the area to similar public health and safety problems. In
                 Topsail Beach, such a situaion is most likely to occur in one
                 or more of the AECs.

                                              25

                  The Topsail Beach policy regaring the proclamation of
                  temporary development moratoriums shall be to:

                       1.  To determine for each AEC whether the provisions of
                           N.C. Building Code, the State Guidelines for Areas of
                           Environmental Concern and the Topsail Beach Flood-
                           plain Management Regulations appeared adequate in
                           minimizing storm damages. For AECs where the con-
                           struction and use requirements do not appear ade-
                           quate, a Temporary Development Moratorium for all
                           structures located within that specific AEC shall be
                           imposed.

                       2.  After imposing a Temporary Development Moratorium
                           for an AEC, the Town of Topsail Beach shall request
                           that the Coastal Resources Commission conduct a
                           special analysis for the Town and all other communi-
                           ties similarly situated in order to determine how
                           local regulations for those hazard areas which are
                           based on State and or Federal guidelines or require-
                           ments should be imposed or modified.     A response
                           within a reasonable time period (e.g. two months) as
                           determined through negotiations should be requested.

                       3.  The Temporary Building Moratorium shall be li+ted
                           after local ordinances and regulations have been
                           revised after receiving recommendations from the
                           State or at the discretion of the Mayor and Council
                           if a response is not made within a reasonable period
                           of time. In the latter case, reconstruction shall be
                           permitted in accordinance with existing regulations
                           and requirements.

                  WIND DAMAGE

                  It is assumed that many structures constructed to conform
                  with the provisions of the North Carolina Building Code will
                  not be able to withstand the accompanying winds if a major
                  hurricane hits the North Carolina coast. It is stated in
                  Before the Storm that Othe State Building Code, as it now
                  stands, falls short in adequately protecting buildings
                  from the damaging forces of hurricanes and other coastal
                  storms. The Building Code Council, in seeking to maintain
                  uniformity of regulation across the state, has been resist-
                  ant in the past to allowing more stringent local standards.
                  Another problem small coastal communities are likely to face
                  is a lack of fiscal and staff resources to sponsor the engi-
                  neering and architectural studies that the Building Code
                  Council requires to justify any local variations to the
                  code.'

                  While Topsail Beach has no technical studies to indicate that
                  the provisions of the Code are inadequate as they effect the
                  Town, the Town should have some flexibility in imposing

                                               26

                stricter standards it if desires. This is a problem that the
                Coastal Resources Commission must face it it expects local
                communities to take the iniative in developing effective
                storm mitigation programs. The Town policy should be to
                request the Coastal Resources Commission to carefully assess
                this problem which is common to all coastal communities.

                                               27

                         IV. TOPSAIL ISLAND HURRICANE EVACUATION PLAN

                 Topsail Beach, Surf City, Pender County and Onslow County
                 must coordinate Topsail Island evacuation operations in the
                 event of major storm. Each of these local governments has
                 developed its own evacuation plan. In this report, the
                 primary concern is the evacuation of the southern end of the
                 Island which includes the Towns of Surf City and Topsail
                 Beach.

                 The Town of Topsail Beach has developed and adopted a
                 Hurricane Emergency Plan and the Town of Surf City has
                 developed and adopted a Hurricane Evacuation Plan.
                 These plans have been thoroughly assessed. Both plans are
                 very comprehensive and provide an excellent framework for
                 each Town to use in conducting its evacuation operations.
                 Following is a brief outline of the major provisions of each
                 plan regarding evacuation operations.

                 A.   TOPSAIL BEACH EVACUATION PLAN.

                      The Topsail Beach hurricane evacuation procedures are
                      ver>- thorough. The plan presents a program for carrying
                      out evacuation operations as part of a five phase effort:
                      Condition 3 - Hurricane Watch (approximately 48 hours to
                      forecasted land fall); Condition 2 - Hurricane Warning
                      (approximately 24 hours to forecasted landfall); Condi-
                      tion I - Evacuation Phase (12 hours or less to expected
                      land-fall); Condition 0 - Land-fall Imminent; and Reentry.
                      The plan describes how specific preparatory, shutdown,
                      warning and evacuation operations will be conducted by
                      Town personnel during each phase of the evacuation
                      process.

                      At the southern end of the Town there are three north-
                      south routes - Carolina Boulevard, Anderson Boulevard
                      (N.C. Highway 50), and Ocean Boulevard. The number of
                      north-south routes is reduced to two north of Hines
                      Street and to only one (Anderson Boulevard) from
                      Bridges Street to Surf City. Consequently, the success-
                      ful evacuation of Topsail Beach is dependent upon keeping
                      Anderson Boulevard clear and open until all evacuation
                      operations are complete. In Before the Storm the entire
                      length of Anderson Boulevard was shown as being within
                      the 100 year flood plain. However, the most recent FEMA
                      flood insurance rate maps indicate that portions of the
                      roadway are above the 100 year flood elevation. Regard-
                      less, Anderson Boulevard remains subject to flooding
                      that could isolate Topsail Beach from the mainland. Ad-
                      ditionally, the roadway is lined on both sides by utility
                      poles and electric overhead lines. The toppling of even
                      one of these poles could block the only evacuation route
                      available to town residents.

                                                28

                      Therefore, the prime concern with the Topsail Beach Hur-
                      ricane Emergency Plan is that if localized flooding or
                      heavy winds occur prior to the setting of Condition 1,
                      the only evacuation route from the Town could be impas-
                      sable before evacuation operations are completed or be-
                      fore they even commence. Because of the potential dif-
                      ficulties in keeping this 4.5 mile length of roadway open
                      +or evacuation operations, it is recommended that a two-
                      phase evacuation order be included in the Town's Hurri-
                      cane Emergency Plan.

                      A Phase I Evacuation Alert would be issued concurrently
                      with the issuance of the hurricane warning and the set-
                      ting of Condition 2 (24 hours prior to projected land-
                      fall). The Topsail Beach Chief of Police should request
                      that the Pender County Emergency Services Coordinator
                      open the designated shelter at the Topsail High School
                      at this time and Town residents and visitors should be
                      urged to evacuate at this time. A Phase 2 Evacuation
                      Order (mandatory evacuation with door to door warnings
                      provided by the Topsail Beach Police and Fire Depart-
                      ments) would be issued as Condition I is set, as is
                      currently provided for in the Town's Plan.

                 B.   SURF CITY EVACUATION PLAN

                      The Surf City hurricane evacuation procedures are very
                      thorough. The Town's Evacuation Plan also includes a
                      five phase evacuation process:  'Condition 3 - Hurricane
                      Watch; Condition 2 - Hurricane Warning; Condition I
                      Evacuation; Condition 0 - Landfall; and Condition 5
                      Reentry. The Plan is organized according to depart-
                      ment responsibilites. Specific responsibilities for
                      each evacuation phase are listed for the Rescue Squad,
                      the Fire Department, the Police Department, the Public
                      Works Department, and other Town Officials.

                      Shore Drive (N.C. Highway 50) is the only north-south
                      evacuation route available from the Surf City/Topsail
                      Beach city limits northward to the intersection of
                      Shore Drive and Topsail Drive. Fortunately, Shore Drive
                      is elevated above the 100 year flood elevation over this
                      entire 2.3 mile stretch.

                      Both Topsail Drive and Shore Drive are available as
                      evacuation routes from their intersection northward to
                      Roland Avenue.  Both routes are below the 100 year flood
                      elevation over this stretch. North of Roland Avenue,
                      Topsail Drive, Shore Drive and New River Drive are
                      available for use as evacuation routes. According to the
                      latest FEMA flood insurance rate maps, both New River
                      Drive and Topsail Drive are located below the 100 year
                      floodplain elevation.

                                                29

                     Because there is only one evacuation route available for
                     use of Town residents south of the intersection of Shore
                     Drive and Topsail Drive, it is recommended that residents
                     south of this area be evacuated prior to the setting of
                     Condition 1. While the high dunes along this stretch of
                     roadway should protect the roadway from flooding, the
                     concern is that high winds could result in damage that
                     blocks this single evacuation route.

                C.   TRAFFIC ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR EVACUATION ROUTES.

                     As discussedd in the previous section, there is a single
                     primary road (N.C. Highway 50/N.C. Highway 210), which
                     runs the entire length of Topsail Island. It is the only
                     through route on the southern/western end of the Island.
                     Other north-south routes are located in the middle sec-
                     tion of the Island. N.C. 50/210 is subject to flooding
                     at various locations along its entire length.

                     Topsail Island was utilized as a case study in Before the
                     Storm. In this study it was concluded that evacuation of
                     the Island was not currently a problem and that up to
                     18,000 vehicles could be evacuated during the 12 hour
                     evacuation period. As a component of the review of
                     existing evacuation plans, a special traffic engineering
                     analysis was undertaken in order to confirm the conclu-
                     sion reached in Before the Storm. The analysis is sum-
                     marized in the sections which follow.

                     N. C. Highway 50 from Topsail Beach to Surf City and its
                     juncture with N.C. 210 is 20 feet wide with 10 foot tra-
                     vel lanes in each direction. The roadway is currently
                     being widened to 24 feet. N.C. Highway 210 is a 20 foot
                     roadway from Onslow County to its intersection with N.C.
                     Highway 50.

                     There are two basic characteristics that differentiate
                     traffic operations on a two-lane roadway from multi-lane
                     facilities. First, distribution of traffic by direction
                     has practically no effect on operating conditions at any
                     given total volume level. Thereforeg the capacity and
                     service volumes of two-lane highways are expressed in
                     total vehicles per hour, regardless of the distribution
                     of traffic by direction. Second; overtaking and passing
                     maneuvers must be made in the traffic lane normally oc-
                     cupied by opposing traffic. Inasmuch as the maintenance
                     of a desired speed requires passing maneuvers, the volume
                     of traffic plus the highway geometrics, which establish
                     available passing sight distance, have a much more signi-
                     +icant effect on operating speeds than is the case on
                     multi-lane roads.

                     The capacity of a two-lane, two-way roadway under ideal

                                               30

                      conditions is 2,000 passenger vehicles per hour total,
                      regardless of directional distribution.

                      Traffic volume increases have a direct effect on operat-
                      ing speeds, independent of roadway alignment features.
                      Operating speeds for uninterrupted flow on all two-lane
                      roadways are 40 mph or above. The total volume for both
                      directions reaches 70 percent of capacity with continuous
                      passing sight distance, or 1,400 passenger cars per hour,
                      under ideal conditions. With operating speeds of 35 mph,
                      total traffic volumes for both directions may reach 85
                      percent of capacity with continuous passing sight dis-
                      tance, or 1,700 passenger cars per hour, under ideal con-
                      ditions.   This represents the highest volume that can be
                      maintained for short periods of time without a high
                      probability of breakdown in flow.

                      The ability of the transportation network to adequately
                      handle evacuation needs is dependent upon the evacuation
                      time as established by Pender County, Surf City and Top-
                      sail Beach. A major element of the evacuation timing is
                      the clearance time, which is directly related to the ve-
                      hicular capacity of the transportation network. Clear-
                      ance time is defined as the amount of time necessary for
                      the relocation of all vulnerable evacuees to their re-
                      spective shelter destinations once the official evacua-
                      tion order is issued. The clearance time consists of
                      three main subcomponents: mobilization time, travel
                      time and queuing delay time.

                      Mobilization time is that period between the issuance of
                      the evacuation order and the departure time of the last
                      vehicle from the vulnerable area. It depends to a large
                      extent on the attitudes and response time of residents
                      Travel time is the period necessary for the vehicles to
                      travel the length of the evacuation route at an antici-
                      pated operating speed assuming no traffic delays (queu-
                      ing). Queuing delay time is defined as the time spent
                      by vehicles in traffic jams resulting when the capaci-
                      ties of the evacuation routes are exceeded by the num-
                      ber of vehicles using these routes.

                      The primary Topsail Beach evacuation route is Anderson
                      Boulevard (N.C. 50). The current widening of this road-
                      way will improve this route to consist of two twelve foot
                      travel lanes. Open areas unprotected from wind and sand
                      will remain. Based on information contained in the Top-
                      sail Beach Land Use Plan, this route might have to be
                      used to evacuate up to 7720 peak seasonal vactioners by
                      the year 1990 and over 10,000 by the year 2000.

                      The primary Surf City evacuation routes are N.C. 50 from
                      the south and N.C. 210 from the north. Based on the Surf
                      City Land Use Plan, these routes might have to be used to

                                                 31

                     evacuate up to 7340 peak seasonal vacationers by the year
                     1990 and about 9000 by the year 2000. The potential
                     number of persons that might have to be evacuated from
                     the two communities during peak vacation seasons by the
                     year 1990 could therefore be over 15,000 (specific plan-
                     ning +or year 2000 evacuation needs should be accom-
                     plished during the regular update of this plan).

                     An analysis of clearance time from Topsail Beach and Surf
                     City was undertaken utilizing the following assumptions:

                        o  a peak number of 15,000 persons might have to be
                           evacuated.

                        o  approximately 15Y of the beach population will
                           leave the area prior to the issuance of official
                           evacuation orders (this is probably a very conser-
                           vative estimate).

                        0  the evacuation roadways will only be able to
                           operate at 75 percent of capacity due to the rela-
                           tively narrow travel lanes, the limited lateral
                           clearance and the general storm conditions that
                           will be present.

                        o  each vehicle will contain 2.5 persons on the aver-
                           age

                        0  the.departure speed will be 35 mph

                        o  under the above assumptions, the normal unrestric-
                           ted travel folume of 1,700 vehicles per hour (vph)
                           would be reduced to 1,275 vph as the maximum road-
                           way capacity.

                     Based on the above assumptions, approximately 5,100 ve-
                     hicles could have to be evacuated from Topsail Beach and
                     Surf C i ty dur i ng the evacuat i on per i od. Assuming N.C.
                     50/210 is operated as a one-way facility of+ the Island
                     during the evacuation period, it would require approxi-
                     mately 4 hours to evacuate the beach areas. This period
                     might be extended somewhat because the N.C. 50-210 bridge
                     over the Intracoastal Waterway is somewhat narrower than
                     the roadway approaching the beach and the reduced lateral
                     clearance could lower its capacity somewhat.

                     Even if two-way traffic were allowed on the N.C. 50/210
                     bridge during the evacuation period (which is highly un-
                     likely), the clearance time under this "worse case" con-
                     dition would only be extended to about 6.5 hours, which
                     is still well within the established 12 hour evacuation
                     time limit.

                                               32

                     Of additional concern in assessing the evacuation routes
                     and the clearance time from the beach areas is the po-
                     trential for bottlenecks occuring at key intersections.
                     On Topsail Island, the intersection of N.C. 50 and
                     N.C. 210 will be required to handle the traffic from
                     both Topsail Beach and Surf City, as well as a
                     portion of the traffic from West Onslow Beach. At this
                     time, it is impossible to evaluate the capacity of that
                     particular intersection due to the lack of traffic data.
                     A signalized intersection under normal operation will
                     accommodate approximately 1,500 vehicles per lane per
                     hour of green. During emergency operation, this inter-
                     section should be monitored/manned by local law enforce-
                     ment officials to ensure that the merging traffic from
                     the two routes is provided orderly right-o+-way and flows
                     smoothly.

                     Another location that should require extra attention dur-
                     ing evacuation is the intersection of-N.C. 50 with Roland
                     Avenue one block east of its intersection with N.C. 210.
                     There will be heavy left turn movements at this intersec-
                     tion during evacuation operations.   Manual traffic con-
                     trol at this intersection during the evacuation period
                     will also be required.

                     The primary conclusion resulting from this analysis is
                     that N.C. 50, N.C. 210 and the N.C. 50-210 bridge all
                     have adequate capacity to handle projected evacuation
                     traffic through the planning period. While West Onslow
                     Beach traffic flows were not considered in this analysis,
                     traffic from this part of Topsail Island could evacuate
                     the Island from the N.C. 210 bridge on the northern end
                     of the Island as well as by way of the N.C. 50-210
                     bridge. The excess capacity of both bridges supports
                     the conclusion contained within Before the Storm.

                     While the evacuation roadway capacity should be adequate
                     to handle evacuation needs for the foreseeable future,
                     specific actions have to be undertaken to insure that
                     this capacity is available when needed. The following
                     provisions and actions are recommended to be incorpor-
                     ated into the Topsail Beach and Surf City evacuation
                     plans in order to help insure that this capacity remains
                     available.

                        1.  Evacuation operations for the entire Town of Top-
                            sail Beach and that portion of Sur+ City south of
                            the intersection of Shore Drive and Topsail Drive
                            should commence upon the setting of Condition 2.
                            This is recommended because there are no alterna-
                            tives to this narrow route and the extra evacua-
                            tion time allows the leeway to address unantici-
                            pated problems (i.e. road blockages) along the

                                                  33

                            two lane, one-way facility upon the setting of
                            Condition 1. The Surf City Evacuation Plan does
                            not include a simialr provision. It is recom-
                            mended that N.C. 50 be operated as a one-
                            way northbound facility upon the setting of
                            Condition 1. Shore Drive north of its
                            intersection with Topsail Drive would continue to
                            be utilized as a two-way facility.

                        3.  It is imperative that N.C. Highway 50 be kept
                            cleared during the evacuation period. Both
                            the Topsail Beach and Surf City Police Departments
                            should station vehicles at key locations along
                            the road in order to monitor conditions and to
                            coordinate and direct clearance operations to
                            remove accidents, fallen poles, etc. from the
                            roadway as necessary.

                        4.  Surf City should assign members of its Police
                            Department to manually direct traffic at the
                            intersections of N.C. 50/Roland Avenue and N.C.
                            50/N.C. 210 during the evacuation period in
                            order to keep traffic flowing smoothly and to
                            facilitate needed turning movements. As an al-
                            ternative, the Pender County Sheriff's Depart-
                            ment or the North Carolina Highway Patrol could
                            be requested to assume this responsiblity.

                        5.  A request should be made to the North Carolina
                            Highway Patrol to operate the N.C. 50/210
                            bridge as primarily a one-way facility during
                            the evacuation period. The only vehicles
                            allowed onto the Island during this period should
                            be official emergency vehicles.

                 The above recommendations are based on the assumptions that
                 the N.C.50/210 drawbridge will remain passable throughout the
                 evacuation period. This should be the case under fore-
                 seeable circumstances. If the drawbridge is not passable,
                 all traffic from Topsail Island will have to be re-routed
                 northeast on N.C. 210 and cross the 210 bridge at the north-
                 ern end of the Island. The capacity of N.C. 210 and the
                 bridge are adequate for handling the'@;e flows. If such a
                 situation occurs, Dixon High School in Onslow County near the
                 intersection of N.C. 210 and U.S. 17 would become the
                 designated shelter for Sur+ City and Topsail Beach evacuees
                 rather than Topsail High School.

                                               34

                                                                                                Check (\,/) Type                                      Check          Extent of Damage                                                For Use By Damage Assessment Officer
                                                                                                    of Building
                                                                                                                                               Unusable/Uninhabitable                                    Usable/
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Habitable
                                                                                                                     L
                     Property Address                          Name of Owner
                                                                                                                                Destroyed or          Extensive Exterior         Damageto               Mostly Exterior              Value of
                                                                                                                                 Essentially            and Interior             Exterior and          Surface Damage.               Building               Estimated              % insurance
                                                                                                                             Destroyed. Small         Damage. Portions    j   interior of Such         Broken Window               (Exclusive of           Dollar Loss               Coverage
                                                                                                                               Percentage of          of Roof or Wall$           M Initude to             Glass, sic.            Land, Contents)
                                                                                                                                                                                 'a  '
                                                                                                                             structure Remains.        Destroyed, or          Ron      Building       Building Is Usable.
                                                                                                                              Intact, or Flood        Flood Water Line 6    Unusable. or Flood         Flood Water Line
                                                                                                                             Water Line 8 Feet        Feet Above Floor.      Water Line 3 Feet           Above Floor,
                                                                                                                                Above Floor.               (x 0.70)              Above Floor.               (x 0. 10).
                                                                                                                                   (x I.00)                                         x 0.30)

              2.

              3.

              4.

              5.

              6.

              7.

              8.

              9.

             10.

             12.

             13.

             14.

             15.

             16.

             17.

             18.

             19.

             20.
                   Notes:                                                                                                                                                                              Incident                                        Area/Zone                Date of Insp.
                   1. Check It single family, enter number of families
                      if multi-family, duplex, or apartments.                                          Damage Assessment Worksheet
                   2. Check and describe on reverse side Of form.                                                          (Percentage of Value Method)                                               Assessor
                   3. Use reverse for notes, sketch maps, etc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    form EM-39 9-81

                                                                                     9/30/81

                             DAMAGE ASSESSMENT WORKSHEET INSTRUCTIONS
                                    (Percentage of Value Method)

                    This form is used by local/county government damage assessment teams.
                following a disaster to assess losses to private property. Assessment is
                based upon on-site inspections and classification of damages according to
                "Extent of Damage" columns on the form. Estimated dollar losses are cal-
                culated by the Damage Assessment Officer.

                INSTRUCTIONS:

                Damage Assessment Team

                a. Complete bottom of form indicating type of incident (flood, tornado,
                ice storm, etc.), area or zone of assignment covered by this worksheet,
                date of inspections, name of assessor, and sheet number (serially by
                assessor, area/zone, or incident, depending upon local preference).

                b. List damage property assessed by indicating address, name of owner (or
                business name, building name, etc.), and type of building. In case of
                multi-family housing, use figure to indicate number of families. For property
                not covered by types listed, check "Other" and describe under "Remarks" below.

                c. Indicate usability and extent of damage by checking the most appropriate
                column.

                d. Upon completion of the inspections, submit worksheets to the Damage
                Assessment Officer.

                Damage Assessment Officer

                a. Review worksheets for completeness and legibility while assessor is
                present. Have any incomplete information added and any illegible entries
                clarified before releasing assessor.

                b. Enter property values from available listingsi being sure to exclude
                value of land and building contents.

                c. Determine estimated dollar loss by multiplying value of building by
                percentage multiplier indicated in Damage column checked.

                d. Using best available information, enter % of property value covered by
                insurance.,

                e. Consolidate damage figures and transmit to the State Emergency Operating
                Center (EOC) using Damage Assessment Report format used by the local Emergency
                Management Coordinator.

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                R E M A R K S:

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