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              Acknowledgment

              Financial assistance was provided for this project by the Coastal Zone Management Act, administered by
              the . Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
              Administration, and further administered by the Michigan Coastal Management Program, Michigan
              Department of Natural Resources, Land and Water Management Division.







                                           Focus 2020


                                       The Future of
                             Grand Traverse County"'



                                            December, 1995





                                              prepared by the

                                Grand Traverse County Planning Commission

                        Eric Huft-Robbins, Chairman           Bruce Orttenburger, Vice Chair
                        Lew Coulter                           Jerry Inman
                        Larry Inman                           Norm Kline
                        Mike Mayse                            Matt Skeels
                        Marsha Smith                          Maureen Templeton
                        Paul Van Valkenburgh



                                     Roger Williams, Planning Director
                        Linda Forwerck, Planning Assistant    Midge Werner, Planning Secretary




                                           planning consultant.


                                         Williams & Works, Inc.




                                                                                        rand
                                                                                        Traverse
   :L                                                                                     ounty
                                                                                         1851







                                                                                 FUTURING REPORT                 rand
                                                                                                                Traverse
                                                                                                                   ounty
                           THE FUTURE OF GRAND TRAvERSE COUNTY                                                   1851

                  Summary. In the next twenty-five years, Grand                  Traverse
                  County will witness more change than it saw in the preceding
                  one hundred years. The population will nearly double, bringing
                  with it more economic opportunity, more services, more cultural
                  activities and more social diversity. It will also bring more
                  traffic congestion, significant loss of open lands, inefficient
                  infrastructure expansions, more pollution, greater loss of natural
                  resources and a broad range of social troubles typically associated
                  with population concentrations. There are few socially or legally
                  viable mechanisms available to stop growth or to even significantly
                  slow it down. However, there are a number of techniques to channel
                  and direct it and to manage its impacts on the community. In this
                  report, we look at the likely future of the County from the perspective
                  of a "business as usual" approach to growth and then from the
                  perspective of how some growth management techniques might be
                  used to control and mitigate the negative impacts of growth.

                  In two recent planning sessions, a group of County residents
                  took up the challenge to look into the future of the County and
                  help describe what they saw (see Appendix I for a list of                  ... a group of County residents
                  participants). This report presents their impressions and those of         took p the challenge to look
                                                                                                   a
                  the project's consultant. It begins with a discussion of those forces      into thefuture of the County
                  that are largely beyond the influence of local government. These           and describe what they saw.
                  may either be positive, negative or both, depending on the response
                  of local decision-makers.        This discussion of "threats, and
                  opportunities" leads naturally into an exploration of what the
                  County will be like in the year 2020 and what steps local officials
                  may take to respond to threats and/or to capitalize on opportunities.

                  Without a concerted effort by local officials to address the
                  effects of growth, the likely pattern of development will
                  essentially be an extension of the trends of the past twenty years.
                  Residential and commercial developments will spill outward
                  from the urbanized areas consuming well over fifty square miles
                  of land currently dedicated to agriculture or open space. This
                  sprawling growth will result in greater congestion, wasteful strip
                  commercial development, and it will leave underutilized
                  infrastructure in its wake.








                                                                                                                 jk/95014/futrept






                and          FUTURING REPORT
               Traverse
                 ounty
                1851

                                                     On the other hand, since there are mechanisms to manage this
                                                     growth, it is possible for the County to achieve significant
                                                     growth and economic expansion without the far-reaching
                                                     negative impacts that can be expected from a "business as
                                                     usual" response. Virtually all of those mechanisms, however,
                                                     will require shifts in the way development is viewed in the
                                                     County and most will require unprecedented levels of inter-
        ... The County's best chancesfor             governmental communication, cooperation and, in some cases,
              successfully managing the              resource sharing.
             enormous challenges of the
             future will befounded in a              This report does not claim to answer the multitude of questions
                 frank and broad-based               associated with such mechanisms. Its primary purpose is to
                              discussion...          continue the County-wide dialogue about the issues of growth
                                                     and the range of approaches that may be taken. The County's
                                                     best chances for successfully managing the enormous
                                                     challenges of the future will be founded in a frank and broad-
                                                     based discussion of all the issues.
































        jk/95014/futmpt                                    2











                                                                                 FUTURING REPoRT
                                                                                                                rand
                                                                                                                Traverse
                                                                                                                   ounty

                              THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES


        It is an accepted fact that the population of Grand Traverse County will
        grow significantly at least through the 25-year planning horizon of this
        study. There is little that the County or its residents can do to stem the
        pace of growth. It is an inexorable fact of market and demographic
        forces. No matter how the growth itself is regarded, the effects of
        growth may be perceived as either threats to the current quality of life,
        or opportunities for existing residents and businesses; or, in some
        instances, both depending on the local response.

                                                                                              140000.
        In a series of discussions on this subject a group of County residents
        identified the following as significant th=ts arid opportunities facing the           120000.00
        County:
                                                                                              100000.04
                Opportunities:
                                                                                                                        4
                                                                                              80000.                    1
                C3       The aesthetic appeal of Grand Traverse County. There
                         is little argument that Grand Traverse County is one of              60000.
                         the most beautiful areas of Michigan. The aesthetic
                         appeal of the County has been one of its greatest                    40000..'
                         strengths and, in spite of the anticipated growth, its
                                                                                              2(X
                         beauty will continue to present important opportunities
                                                                                                )00-0"-



                                                                                                  0.
                         for the future.
                                                                                                    1990  2000  2010 2020



                                                                                              Figure]. Grand Traverse County
                                                                                                    projectedpopulation.


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                                                                    3                                           jk/95014/futrept










                              FUTURING REPoRT
               rand
               Traverse
                  ounty


                                                              The quality of life of the region. Grand Traverse
                                                              County offers a pleasant balance of rural and
                                                              northwoods amenities with modem comforts and
                                                              convenience. The area's superior schools, relatively
                                                              efficient and responsive local government, safe streets,
                                                              regional health care services and solid family values
                                                              combine to create an attractive lifestyle for local
                                                              residents.

                                                      0       Job creation and economic development. The aesthetic
                                                              characteristics of the region and its quality of life offer
                                                              good opportunities for further high quality job creation
                                                              activities. With the anticipated growth of the region,
                                                                                                                        Is
                                                              many new jobs in construction and services industrie
                                                              will naturally follow.      Through effective business
                                                              attraction and retention efforts, even more high-skill
                                                              and high-wage job creation is possible.
                                                      13      Openness to inter-governmental cooperation. There is
                                                              a tradition of cooperation among the units of local
                                                              government in the County. The fact that the County is
                                                              undertaking a Master Planning effort in cooperation
                                                              with the other local units is good evidence of this.
                                                              Many seemingly insurmountable challenges can be met
                                                              easily with cooperation among local units of
                                                              government.


                                                      Threats:

                                                      D       Sprawling growth. Left unchecked or undirected, the
                                                              growth that the County will experience will certainly
                                                              sprawl over much of the northern half of the County.
                                                              The aesthetic beauty of the region and its quality of life
                                                              will face a withering assault of challenges. Without the
                                                              attention of local decision makers, this sprawl threatens
                                                              the region's environment, its aesthetics and the quality
                                                              of life that have made the County so attractive in the
                                                              first place.








        jk/95014/futrept                                      4











                                                                                MURING REPoRT
                                                                                                                rand
                                                                                                               Traverse
                                                                                                                  ounty
                                                                                                                1851


                                                                                   . .. .. . . .
                                                                                     . . ... ... . . .... .. .
                                IN-












                                                                    ........ . . . . .















                        Pollution and the degradation of natural resources. In
                        addition to being important to the aesthetic values of the
                        community, the County's natural resources are vital to its
                        economy and ecology. With unmanaged growth win come
                        the destruction of important wildlife habitat and the loss of
                        agricultural, tourism and forestry resources, key elements in
                        the economy of Northern Nfichigan.
                        The clear air and pristine fresh water of the County's
                        lakes and streams are certainly placed in jeopardy by
                        the sprawling growth that is anticipated. However, the
                        pollution that comes from development and growth can
                        be readily managed, if the County and local
                        government have a comprehensive plan in place to do
                        SO.

                        Overloaded infrastructure and public services.           The
                        expected doubling of the County's population in the next
                        twenty-five years will place enormous demands on roads,
                        utility systems and on public services. But like the effects
                        on natural resources, with effective preparation and
                        planning, the community has the resources to properly
                        manage this challenge.






                                                               5                                                jk/95014/futrept






                rand          FUTURING REPORT
               Traverse
                   unty
                181                          Perhaps the most important element of competent public and private
                                             stewardship is the realistic assessment of the forces that will threaten
                                             the County in the next twenty-five years and the opportunities that
                                             will present themselves. With the preceding descriptions of the most
                                             important opportunities and threats, it is appropriate to turn the
                                             discussion to the likely impact of those forces on life in Grand
                                             Traverse County.
                  0

                  5















































         jk/95014/futrept                                    6







                                                                           FUTURING REPORT             rand
                                                                                                       Traverse
                                                                                                         ounty

                       THE "BUSINESS AS USUAL" SCENARIO


        VVhile there may be general agreement that the growth that is coming
        will present a series of threats and opportunities to the residents of
        Grand Traverse County, there is less consensus about what should be
        done to manage the growth. Furthermore, the patchwork of local
        governmental agencies with minimal accountability to one another
        makes comprehensive approaches difficult. Finally, there is the
        factor that the threat is relatively slow-moving and not immediately
        obvious. Residents generally take little notice of its effects until it is
        too late to address them very effectively.

        As a result of these factors, the most likely pattern of growth                       1990
        management in Grand Traverse County over the next twenty-five
        years may best be described as "business as usual" (BAU). One by
        one, developments will push ever farther outward from the core,
        public utilities will be upgraded and expanded, roads will be
        widened and shopping centers, fast food and convenience stores will
        follow as soon as there are enough residents nearby to support them
        (see Figure 2). Decisions to approve the sprawl of development will
        happen incrementally in one Township and then the next. Owners of
        larger tracts of land will be offered ever higher prices for their real
        estate until eventually they (and ultimately the community) will be                   2010
        hard pressed to resist. Master plans and zoning designations will be
        shifted toward more intense uses and agricultural land uses will
        diminish in scope and importance.

        In the wake of the press outward, the fully developed portions of the             . .. . .....
        County will, for a time, continue to flourish. However, as utility
        systems are extended further outward and/or as new systems are
        developed, the cost of maintaining water and wastewater systems
        and roadways located in the core will fall on a declining percentage
        of residents and businesses and on an ever-shrinking percentage of                     2020
        total equalized valuation.
                                                                                       Figure 2. The developed
        The Shape of Business as Usual in Grand Traverse County. It is                 portions of the County
        impossible to predict with precision the exact pattern that growth will         reflected in the upper
        take in the BAU scenario, but a meaningful, general approximation is             map are expected to
        provided in Map A. It is based on the input of a number of local                spread ever outward,
        residents and planning professionals, a review of utility systems and         eventually sprawling over
                                                                                        two-thirds of the land
        roadways, local master plans and natural features. It describes the                    area.




                                                                7                                       jk/95014/futrept






                rand          FUTURING REPORT
                Traverse
                  ounty
                 1851

                                             outward movement of urbanized development consuming most of
                                             Long Lake, Green Lake, Garfield, East Bay and Acme Townships
                                             with significant encroachments into Blair, Paradise, Peninsula, Fife
                                             Lake and VAiitewater Townships. Relatively smaller parts of Grant,
                                             Mayfield and Union Townships will be affected, but the proximity of
                                             growth will certainly impact the lifestyle of residents there.

                                             The population density in the outlying portions of the County ranges
                  a total of 30,000          from about one household per acre to well over ten acres per
                 acres, or about 47          household. Map A is based on an average of I acre per household and
              square miles, will be          it assumes that most of the growth anticipated in the next twenty-five
                      consumed by            years will occur in these outlying areas with some increased densities
                    the residential          in the urbanized parts of Garfield, East Bay, Long Lake Townships
                development alone            and the City of Traverse City. The addition of about 66,000 residents
                                             with an average household size of 2.2 persons, means that about
                                             30,000 new households will be needed. (An average household size
                                             of 2.2 persons is appropriate for this projection since household size
                                             has been declining in the County and is likely to reach about 2.2
                                             persons by 2020). At I acre per household, a total of 30,000 acres, or
                                             about 47 square miles, will be consumed by the residential
                                             development alone. To give this figure some perspective, there are 36
                                             square miles in the typical township. Thus, at lower average densities
                                             of I acre per household, an area approximately equivalent to all of the
                                             currently undeveloped portions of Garfield, Long Lake, Green Lake,
                                             and the northern half of Blair Townships will be consumed by
                                             development by the year 2020.

                                                     Northern Sub-Area. In the northern portion of the County
                                                     including the (fity of Traverse City, and Garfield, Acme,
                                                     Peninsula and East Bay Townships, development will be
                                                     virtually complete by the year 2020. About one-half of the
                                                     anticipated population growth will reside in these five
                                                     jurisdictions. Map A assumes that a new east-west corridor
                                                     will be built along an alignment described generally as Gray,
                                                     Hartman, Hammond, South Bates and Sayler Roads. This will
                                                     form another high-volume east-west corridor and spur even
                                                     further development.








         jk/95014/futmpt                                     8







                                                                                FUTURING REPORT                rand
                                                                                                              Traverse
                                                                                                                 ounty
                                                                                                               1851

                In the BAU scenario, the improvements to this corridor will
                accelerate development and sprawl both along the corridor and
                to the south.    Its influence will essentially extend to the
                southern reaches of Garfield Township, through the
                Arbutus/Spider Lakes area of East Bay Township and well into
                the eastern portions of Long Lake Township and much of
                Acme Township.

                In Peninsula Township, the purchase of development rights
                program will be somewhat effective at mitigating sprawl, to
                the extent that funds are available.


                The core of Traverse City will remain relatively vital due to its
                proximity to the recreational amenities of the Bay and the
                established infrastructure. Retail and commercial activities in
                the core will continue to struggle against competition from
                strip commercial, mall developments and office parks in
                suburban areas.


                Map A shows the extent of urban development and urban
                influences.    Urban development includes fully improved
                streets, urban or suburban densities of at least two units per
                acre,   and public water and wastewater systems. Urban
                influence areas are less dense, but are planned and poised for
                further growth only awaiting sufficient market demand. The
                balance of the northern sub-area falls into this category.

                Western Sub-Area. In the westem portion of the County
                including Long Lake, Green Lake and Blair Townships,
                significant residential development will have occurred with
                expanding pockets of commercial at Churn's Comers, and
                along US-31 and at Interlochen. Urban influence areas will
                predominate, but there will be pockets of fully urbanized areas.
                The "Gray/ Hartman/Hammond" improvement will have its
                most significant impact in Long Lake Township. Existing
                residential development on the ma or lakes will necessitate the
                development of new wastewater systems or the extension of
                the Traverse City system to serve these areas. Utilities will
                likely be extended to the new High School and these will
                stimulate further development where service is available.





                                                                                                               jk/95014/futrept











                             F'UTURING REPORT
               rand
               Traverse
                 ounty
                1851
                                                   Where public water and wastewater services are not available,
                                                   average densities of about one unit per acre overall are
                                                   expected. However, there will be numerous subdivisions with
                                                   wastewater service and developers will push for greater
                                                   densities to offset utility costs.


                                                   As shown in Map A, residential subdivisions and "keyhole"
                                                   plats will develop in the vicinity of the lakes and in the
                                                   northeast part of Long Lake Township suburban subdivisions
                                                   will likely predominate, especially if municipal, or private







                                                             h-









                                                       Lake






                                                               Figure 3. "Keyhole" developments increase
                                                                  development impacts on inland lakes.

                                                   utility services are provided. The abrupt rise in elevation
                                                   overlooking the Bay provides numerous opportunities for
                                                   subdivisions with high quality views of the surrounding
                                                   countryside. The southem-most reaches of Blair Township
                                                   will retain much of its woodland and agricultural uses, but the
                                                   current trend of single family homes being placed on large
                                                   acreage parcels will continue to reduce the viability of the
                                                   area's agricultural, wetlands and forested areas.







        jk/95014/futmpt                                    12









                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MAP
                                             GRAND                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      "Business
                                             COUNTY                                                                                                                                                                                       As Usual"


                                                                2020 Likely Urban Growth Limits
                                                                (Approx. 122 sq. miles)

                                                                2020 Urban Influences
                                                                (Approx. 181 sq. miles)
                                           NMI                  Hartman-Hammond Connection
                                           IN - SM              Currently Developed Areas
                                                                (per 1990 MIRIS)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    019,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ME


                                                                                                                                                                                                    go

                                                                                                                                                                                                     MOR



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                                                                                                                                                                                            &AN          7-                           ..M
                                                                                                                                                                                           %NNO.,
                                                                                                                                                                                   INN
                                                                                                                                                                                     NIP


                                                                                                                                                          "n
                                                                                                                                                                                                            .. .......... .
                                                                                                                    NE








                                                                                      . . . . . . . . . . . . .

                                          77








                                                                                                                                                                                                                 W&%m & Works, Inc.







                                                                               FUTURING REPORT                rand
                                                                                                              Traverse
                                                                                                                ounty
                Eastern Sub-Area. Consisting of %itewater and Union                                            1851
                Townships, the eastern area will experience the full range of
                development pressures in the next twenty-five years.
                Commercial and residential growth emanating eastward from
                Acme Township along M-72 and the high quality views above
                Elk Lake will spur further large lot residential development in
                Whitewater Township. On the other hand, all of Union
                Township is designated State Forest land with about two-thirds
                of the Township actually in State ownership. This factor, and
                the relatively remote location and sparse population of the
                Township will slow growth there. One factor that may offset
                these inhibitions is the planned improvements to US-131 in
                Kalkaska County and the potential of an interchange in the
                vicinity of Supply Road, eventually. The timetable for these
                improvements is not yet established, but the TC-TALUS Long              ... there will be an increasing
                Range plan does envision better access to the southern portion          trend toward the
                of Whitewater and the north-central part of Union Township              development of singlefamily
                through improvements to Supply Road east of High Lake                   homes on large acreage
                Road.                                                                   parcels in both townships,
                Little of the Eastern Sub-Area is expected to achieve urban or          reducing the value of the
                suburban development patterns during the planning horizon of            landsfor agriculture,
                the Master Plan. However, urban influence areas will extend             forestry or wildlife habitat.
                well into Whitewater Township along M-72 and west and
                south of Elk Lake. In addition, there will be an increasing
                trend toward the development of single family homes on large
                acreage parcels in both townships, reducing the value of the
                lands for agriculture, forestry or wildlife habitat.

                Southern Sub-Area. This area consists of Grant, Mayfield,
                Paradise and Fife Lake Townships and the Villages of Kingsley
                and Fife Lake. This area is the most remote from the outward
                sprawl of the urban area, but it will experience significant effects
                as a result of that sprawl in the BAU scenario. Some urban
                influences emanating from the sprawl of the region will likely be
                experienced in Paradise Township along the Garfield Road
                corridor and in Grant Township south of Green Lake. In addition,
                however, expansions to the Kingsley and Fife Lake wastewater
                collection and treatment systems will likely spawn more intense
                development in these areas and planned improvements to US-131
                will significantly impact Fife Lake Township.




                                                                    13                                         jk/95014/futrept











                              FUTURING REPoRT
                rand
                 raverse





                                              The primary development feature in the Southern Sub-Area over the
                                              next twenty-five years, however, will be loss of agricultural lands. As
                                              in the Eastern Sub-Area, there will be an increasing trend toward the
                                              development of single family homes on large acreage parcels. The
                                              effect will be to fragment otherwise viable tracts of farmland and
                                              forestry properties into a patchwork that makes commercial
                                              agriculture and forestry infeasible. This trend will be accelerated by
                                              the already marginal returns available from agriculture.

                                              Of course, densities will not be uniform around the county, nor will
                  The effect will be to       development be equally dispersed in all parts of the county. Certainly
           fragment.otherwise viable          there will still be large tracts of undeveloped lands, forests and farm
               tracts offarmland and          lands in the County in the year 2020 regardless of the growth
            forestry properties into a        management efforts of local government. But those areas that do
                          patchwork..         remain will be significantly reduced in scope, quality and viability for
                                              agriculture, and wildlife habitat and recreation will be compromised.

                                              The BAU approach to growth management is the pattern of growth
                                              found in most communities facing a surge in development. There is
                                              much that can be learned from the communities that have taken this
                                              path. The market in Grand Traverse County is likely to demand the
                                              suburban lifestyle that has become the American model for middle
                                              class life. The beauty of the County and its desirable quality of life
                                              will further strengthen this trend. As new jobs are created more
                                              people want that lifestyle and with automobiles within the price range
                                              of virtually all consumers, the increased commuting times and
                                              distances will be regarded as minor inconveniences. In short, if the
                                              demand is there, it will be met. The pattern is well established in
                                              other communities and it is becoming apparent in Grand Traverse
                                              County: With growth will come wasteful, ugly urban sprawl.

                                              If the BAU course tends to be the one most frequently followed-
                                              either by active choice or by passive resignation to the marketplace-
                                              it is appropriate to ask what life will be like in Grand Traverse County
                                              in the year 2020, if we follow that path. And beyond that, what will
                                              life be like for the next generation in the year 2040 or the one that
                                              follows in the year 2060?






         jk/95014/futrept                                     14







                                                                              FUTURING REPORT               rand
                                                                                                           Traverse
                                                                                                              ounty
        The answers to these questions are apparent from a brief look at the                                1851
        history of other BAU regions. Communities that have already peaked,
        and now are in decline, have traced many of their problems to the
        persistent spreading out of the fabric of the community leaving the
        core weakened and dying and isolating the many neighborhoods on
        the edges from one another.        Utility systems are stretched into
        unworkable networks, with newer portions overtaxed while large
        sections of the existing infrastructure go under-used.

        The lifestyle of residents          f@@ :,-T@ 7= @@                                         I @@ @'*'@
                                                      77
        in these areas is often un-
                                            E Z
        pleasant, characterized by                                                                     _'K
        extended         commuting,
        harried excursions from
        strip center to strip center
        and long waits in gridlock
        at suburban intersections.
        There is little sense of
        connectedness to the place.
        Residential     development
        spread out over tracts
                                                           V i
                                                              A
        which only the year before
        had been productive farms
        or orchards.     Greenspace
        and forests are dozed into
        parking    lots   and     gas
        stations.


        In communities which have allowed sprawl to occur,            convenience
        services are no longer convenient. One can no longer walk anywhere.
        Children must be bussed to remote schools with no connections to
        their neighborhoods and they must be driven by parents to virtually
        every after-school activity they may attend.

        In areas which have failed to plan for        their growth, the natural
        environment has often been subjugated         to the effects of human
        activity.   Natural streams and drainage courses are diverted to
        underground tubes. Air quality suffers        from industrial and auto
        emissions, light pollution masks the night skies and the constant din
        of traffic and human activity overpowers      the natural sounds of the
        region. As wildlife habitat is dozed under or paved over, ecosystems




                                                                  15                                        jk/95014/futrept






                rand          FUTURING REPORT
                 raverse



                                             begin to collapse and, with a balance gone, only the most hardy
                                             insects and rodents remain to share the environment with the human
                                             population. Residents in these sprawling metropolitan regions must
                                             use their autos even to bring them into proximity with unspoiled
                                             landscapes.

                                             Of course, people do manage to live useful and productive lives in
                                             these communities. Most find good jobs and are able to raise their
            ... the heritage of Grand        families. Many sprawling metropolitan regions are recognized for
       Traverse County is that of a          their high standards of income, their cultural resources and their
      much higher quality lifestyle          economic power. Therefore, the BAU course of development must be
       in harmony with nature, not           viewed realistically in Grand Traverse County. Certainly it will mean
              in domination over it.         loss of many of the natural features that have characterized the area in
                                             the past and a shift to a faster-paced urban lifestyle, but it will also
                                             have its compensations in terms of higher incomes and greater cultural
                                             diversity. Nevertheless, the heritage of Grand Traverse County is that
                                             of a much higher quality lifestyle in harmony with nature, not in
                                             domination over it.


                                             Therefore, the question that must be addressed in the County Master
                                             Plan is: If we have a choice, how can we accommodate the growth
                                             that is coming without the wholesale degradation of our natural
                                             environment?


                                             The Growth Management Alternative may provide some answers to
                                             this question.




















        jk/95014/futrept                                    16











                                                                           FUTURING REPORT
                                                                                                         rand
                                                                                                        Traverse
                                                                                                          ounty
                   THF, GROWTH MANAGEMENTALTERNATIVE                                                     1851


       The population of Grand Traverse County will double in the next
       twenty-five years and, based on past practice, the conventional pattern
       of growth will follow the path of least resistance. As a result, unless
       the community takes some concrete steps to alter its approach to
       growth, there is little reason to expect that the ugly urban sprawl
       described in the previous section will not occur.             Therefore,
       recognizing that there will be some negative impacts associated with
       growth, what steps can be taken to assure that those impacts are
       minimized and that the development that occurs is of the highest
       quality possible?

       It is certainly important to conserve and preserve the natural character
       of the region, but it is equally important to recognize that the new
       urbanized environment that is coming need not be characterized by           The new environment must
       the ugly sprawl that is the typical result of the BAU course. The new       be on a par in terms of its
       environment must be on a par in terms of its quality, functionality and     qualityfunctionality and
       aesthetics with the existing environnient-while accommodating the           aesthetics with the existing
       added population.                                                           environment-while
                                                                                   accommodating the added
       Fortunately, there are a number of proven techniques to manage              population.
       growth. These vary from stringent, centralized controls that attempt
       to manipulate market forces, to guidelines and persuasion that seek to
       alter the perceptions of consumers. Some may be more applicable
       than others and in the final County Master Plan, a series of strategies
       will be set forth for use by the County and by units of local
       government to alter the patterns of growth in the County. For the
       purposes of this futuring report, it is necessary only to describe the
       shape of an alternative to the BAU scenario and the range of
       techniques that may be considered to accomplish it.

       Accepting that there will be about 66,000 additional residents in
       Grand Traverse County by the year 2020 and that the population will
       pread over the landscape at approximately the same densities as
       today, it is appropriate first to examine the BAU assumptions about
       s

       density. If, for example, instead of assuming average densities of one
       household per acre, one assumed 1.5 households per acre, the amount
       of land needed to accommodate the growth will decrease from about
                                                                                                 9








































       47 square miles to about 31 square miles.           If development is




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                   rand            FUTURING REPORT
                  Traverse
                       unty
                    181
                                                     encouraged in proximity to currently developed areas, and
                                                     discouraged in areas currently in agriculture or forestry, the effect is to
                                                     significantly reduce the sprawl effect. Therefore, a series of strategies
                                                     intended to shape and guide growth will be needed to accomplish this.

                                                                                 Many communities around the country have
                                                                                 implemented such strategies with the result
                                    Three-quarter                                being the definition of urban development
                                      Xcre Cots
                                                                (Y)              areas, urban influence or reserve areas and
                       rio     00                               (Y)              rural use areas. Urban development areas we
                          0'-"         L           IF L
                           L                                                     those portions of the community that are
                   1. 100, 100, 100, 100. 100- , 100-     100.                   already significantly developed or in the
                       156'    150'      150'     150'      150'                 immediate path of development. These are
                                                                                 areas where the community is able to provide
                       M       ON                           rl                   public services and where compaction is
                           150. 4- 1                                             encouraged. The essence of policies directed at
                                                                                 these areas is to foster high quality and efficient
                                                                                 growth and development. Urban influence or
                                                                                 reserve areas, are those parts of the community
                                     Iwo Acre Lots                               that will likely be needed to accommodate
                                                                                 further growth within a limited planning
                                                                                 horizon. Policies in these areas are intended to
                                                                                 direct development in ways that will later
                                                                                 complement further urbanization without
                                                                                 significantly compromising current property
                       Figure 4. A 50% increase in average                       rights.    Development in rural use areas is
                       densities can be accomplished without                     restricted to very large acreage uses, such as
                       significant reductions in privacy. This                   agriculture and forestry, with limits on
                       illustration shows that a reduction in
                     average lot sizesfrom 2 acres to 314 acre,                  subdivisions.
                       only decreases the distances between
                     homes by about 60feet. Privacy can best                     The essential concept is to discourage urban
                        be achieved through plantings and                        sprawl, improve existing infrastructure to
                                    screening.                                   support development and redevelopment where
                                                                                 appropriate and discourage development of
                                                     rural lands. These objectives, when supported by realistic and rational
                                                     strategies, will create boundaries within the community in which
                                                     varying policies are applied to guide growth.                   In concept, this
                                                     approach offers an elegant solution to balance growth pressure with
                                                     the protection of important natural features and quality of life.
                     0 ty
                     5










































                                                     However, in practice, a broad spectrum of difficult property rights and




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                                                                            FUTURING REPORT               rand
                                                                                                         Traverse
                                                                                                            ounty
       jurisdictional issues must be carefully considered. This is especially                             1851
       true in Michigan with its fragmented local planning structure.
       Nevertheless, if it is founded on a broad-based consensus, such an
       approach to growth management can dramatically reduce the
       sprawling nature of development without significantly compromising
       the economic future of the region.

       Map B illustrates the likely urban growth limits in 2020 assuming the
       County implements a series of strategies intended to increase densities
       in targeted areas by about 50%. Comparing Maps A and B, it is clear
       that significant portions of Green Lake, Blair, East Bay, Acme and
       Whitewater Townships will be left relatively untouched in a moderate
       growth control scenario. A moderate growth control scenario would
       be characterized by a set of policies intended to encourage intense
       urbanized growth along a boundary described by the proposed
       Hartman-Hammond connection, southerly along M-37/IJS-31 to
       Chum's Comers and along US-31 in Acme Township. Outside that
       boundary, some urban influences in the form of subdivisions and              ... a broad spectrum Of
       cluster development may be anticipated. The largest such area will be        difficultproperty rights
       found east of Long Lake. This scenario also envisions a set of               andjurisdictional issues
       policies intended to encourage the growth of "village centers" in such       must be carefully
       places as Kingsley, Fife Lake, Williamsburg, Mapleton and                    considered.
       Interlochen. These villages should be encouraged to develop as
       smaller, self-contained communities with a broad range of economic
       and social amenities. In addition, green areas formed by open lands,
       agricultural uses and/or forests should be used to provide buffers that
       will enable these centers to retain their separate identities.

       Also illustrated in Map B is a very stringent growth limit, which is
       defined by the existing utility systems. However, such a restriction on
       growth will result in unrealistically high densities, uncharacteristic of
       the area, which will handicap the economic potential of the County.

       It is clear that the edges of urbanized development in Grand Traverse
       County will need to expand. Modest increases in density, (i.e., 1.5 to
       2 units per acre) supported by a broad public understanding of the
       need for this shift in development patterns and driven by a set of
       public policies to encourage density will have the greatest potential
       for success. This is a very simplistic formula for growth management,
       but it ha's been proven in other communities. It will only be effective,
       however, if it is supported by the entire community including those




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                GRAND                                                                                        MAP
                TRAVERSE
                COUNTY                                                                        Moderate
                1111111112020 Likely Urban Growth Limits                                            Growth
                                                                                                   Control
                        (Approx. 88 sq. miles)

                ..:;: ... . ......
                        2020 Urban Influences
                        (Approx. 137 sq. miles)

                        Hartman-Hammond Connection

                -- - MEN Currently Developed Areas
                        (per 1990 MIRIS)

                        Stringent Growth Limits


















                             .............

















                     Tnmw                                                         Whaim & Works, Inc.







                                                                                     FUTURING REPORT                  rand
                                                                                                                     Traverse
                                                                                                                        ounty
        that may see greater short-term economic gain in the BAU scenario.                                            1851
        Therefore, it is critically important that there be a solid consensus about the
        need for some level of growth management in the County and public
        support for the regulatory and financial commitments needed to carry it out.

        Growth Management Strategies. At this stage of the Master Plan
        development process, it is premature to advance specific strategies for
        growth management directed at specific locations. However, the
        following paragraphs describe techniques applied in other areas with
        significant success.                                                                   ... it is critically important
                                                                                               that there be a solid
                0        Urban Growth Limits. Through the cooperative                          consensus about the need
                         efforts of all the jurisdictions in the County, it is                 for some level of growth
                         possible to establish a limit for urban growth and                    management..
                         growth influenced by urbanization.                Of course,
                         simply drawing a line on a map will not influence
                         the shape of growth. In addition to cooperation at
                         the local level, a well developed and consistently
                         implemented set of growth management strategies
                         must be applied to land uses within each area.
                         Some such growth management tools are described
                         below.

                0        Purchase of Development Rights (PDR).                      This
                         technique is familiar in Grand Traverse County,                                   DevelopMent! Rights..- -
                         since Peninsula Township is the first community in                                                 ,tVl@
                                                                                                                         10 Ilk,
                         the State to approve a millage to establish a fund to                                          0,   '%
                         acquire development rights for farm property,                                  Vf!R
                         enabling the owners to capitalize on the
                         development potential of their land without
                         abandoning their farming operations.                       This
                         technique could be utilized in other parts of the
                         County both to retain agricultural uses and to                            Figure 5.  Development rights
                         preserve natural features.                                                   may be transferredfrom
                                                                                                   areas where development is to
                                                                                                      be discouraged to areas
                 C3      Transfer of Development Rights (TDR). Coupled                                   where it is desired.
                         with the PDR program, it is also possible to
                         encourage greater densities in targeted areas by
                         shifting the acquired development rights from one
                         location where the community seeks to limit
                         growth to another location where development is




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               rand          FUTURING REPORT
                raverse
                 o nty
                1851                                      desired. Such a program may be established either
                                                          to operate privately between two cooperating
                                                          property owners, or through a public sector
                                                          oversight agency.
                                                   0      Zoning - Lot Size Restrictions. Some communities
                                                          have attempted to preserve open lands and limit
                                                          population growth by establishing large minimum lot
                                                          sizes. The effect, however, has been to divide large
                                                          tracts of farmable lands into a patchwork of two to ten
                                                          acre fragments that are essentially unused, except as
                                                          private preserves. By establishing maximum lot sizes
                                                          rather than minimum lot sizes in areas where growth is
                                                          desired, the community will get more efficient
                                                          development and yet maintain more of its rural
                                                          character.
                                                          On the other hand, in order to pennit "estate
                                                          residential" development which does not foreclose the
                                                          potential for agricultural uses in other parts of the
                                                          community, significantly larger minimum lot sizes
                                                          (e.g., twenty acres, or more) may be preferable. These
                                                          large parcels would enable those that truly are seeking
                                                          a private preserve to obtain one, and they will also
                                                          make it possible for the land to be used for farming or
                                                          other uses related to natural resource preservation.








                                                                       FOR      'SALE
                                                                       2* Acre  HOrnesites














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                                                                                                                         FUTURING REPORT                              rand
                                                                                                                                                                     Traverse
                                                                                                                                                                         ounty
                       0           Zoning - Cluster Development. On the other end of the                                                                               1851
                                   spectrum from establishing maximum lot sizes is the
                                   notion of cluster development. Here smaller lot sizes
                                   are encouraged along with tools to enable developers to
                                   customize their proposed developments to particular
                                   site amenities. Typically, cluster developments take
                                   advantage of open space development design (OSDD)
                                   techniques to cluster most of the units on one part of
                                   the site and set aside the remainder of the site for
                                   common open area. Well-designed developments of
                                   this type achieve higher market acceptance than
                                   traditional subdivisions.

                                   However, many local zoning provisions work against
                                   such creativity. Furthermore, some developers and
                                   owner's associations struggle with liability issues
                                   related to maintaining common open lands.                                             To
                                   overcome these difficulties, the County and local units
                                   may need to consider changes in local zoning and
                                   subdivision control ordinances.











                                                                                                                                      C@I



                                                                                na
                                                                 Conventio I                                   Final Approved Plan
                      Existing Farm                              "By-Right' Plan                                         58 dwellings
                              158 acres                                   38 units                                       40 one-acre lots
                                                                          3, acre lots                                   10,418ge lots
                                                                          No open space                                  8 attached units
                                                                          No rural character                             62% open space (96 acres)


                                            Figure 6. Alternative layouts preserve open spaces and increase density.
                                                                 (Source. Brandywine Conservancy, 1992.)






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                Traverse
                   unty




                                                      13      Utility Systems as Growth Management Tools. There
                                                              is an ongoing debate about whether utility systems can
                                                              be effective tools to manage growth.             In most
                                                              communities, they cannot because current residents are
                                                              unwilling to shoulder the cost of system expansions in
                                                              anticipation of future growth.       Instead, developers
                                                              acquire property that they want to develop and petition
                                                              for utility services at their expense, passing the costs on
                                                              to the buyers of the lots developed. In addition, those
                                                              developers that have invested in public utility systems
                                                              often seek approval for higher densities on the sites
                                                              served to spread the utility costs over a greater number
                                                              of users.      While leaving investments in utility
                                                              extensions to the private sector minimizes the capital
                                                              costs to the   community, it results in the developer
              ... the County may consider                     determining where growth will go, not the community.
             significantly higher permit                      To gain more control through utility system
             fees as a means of helping                       expansions, the community must be willing to invest in
                to create greater parity in                   extensions of water and sewer lines to undeveloped
                costs between areas with                      areas and wait to recover that investment when the
                public utilities and those                    market is ready to develop the areas served.
                    with on-site systems.             0       Restrict       On-Site        Wastewater          Disposal.
                                                              Complementing the notion of using public water and
                                                              wastewater to guide development would be more
                                                              stringent controls on on-site wastewater disposal (i.e.,
                                                              septic systems). There certainly is a public purpose in
                                                              tighter controls, since septic tank drainfields can
                                                              endanger groundwater and, at times, surface water. In
                                                              addition, with a comprehensive plan for the orderly
                                                              development of the County in place, it may be argued
                                                              that unrestricted use of on-site wastewater disposal will
                                                              work at counter purposes to public policy. Since it will
                                                              probably not be possible to completely restrict the use
                                                              of on-site wastewater systems in remote areas, the
                                                              County may consider significantly higher permit fees
                                                              as a means of helping to create greater parity in costs
                                                              between areas with public utilities and those with on-
         R
                  0  iry
                  5
                9









































                                                              site systems. The additional revenue from the higher




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                                                                             FUFUPJNG REPORT               rand
                                                                                                          Traverse
                                                                                                             ounty
                       fees may be dedicated to offset some of the public                                  1851
                       investment in the extension of utilities into
                       undeveloped areas where development is encouraged.

               C3      Levy Development Impact Fees. A fairly controversial
                       growth management tool used in other states, but
                       currently not available in Michigan, is the application
                       of development impact fees. This technique essentially
                       requires the developer (and ultimately the consumer) to
                       pay up to all the costs associated with their
                       developments. These costs are paid in the form of
                       impact fees which are used to support both
                       infrastructure like wastewater, water and road, but also
                       for schools, added police and fire protection. Although
                       such fees are currently not authorized in Michigan, this
                       technique has been successful elsewhere and legislation
                       to enable local jurisdictions to levy impact fees for
                       road-related    improvements      is   currently     under
                       consideration in the State House Transportation
                       Committee.
                                                                             /010
               0       Encourage Village Centers.                        (0@      00         0
                       One of the most desirable
                       qualities of a region like Grand                                  .0
                       Traverse County is the cultural                                          0..00
                       and social amenities of such
                       free-standing communities as
                       Kingsley and Fife Lake.
                       Unfortunately as urban sprawl                                              010
                       proceeds, these communities
                       are normally "swallowed up"
                       in the trend toward suburbani-                                           0.
                       zation. This need not happen,
                       if the community is committed                                                    0
                       to preventing it. Village centers
                       are physically distinct from the
                       balance of the region, separated
                       by significant green areas, and             Figure 7. Traditional "village" design
                       they consist of firee-standing              encourages pedestrian movement and
                       residential and commercial land            discourages automobile through traffic.
                       uses. The scale and design of the




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                              FuniRING REPORT
                rand
                Traverse
                    unty
                  181
                                                             village center is such that it encourages pedestrian
                                                             movement and it discourages automobile through
                                                             traffic. Implementing the village center approach in
                                                             areas such as Kingsley and Fife Lake where the
                                                             village is already defined as a political jurisdiction
                                                             will    be    relatively    easy,     because      formal
                                                             representation exists for the area's residents and
                                                             businesses. In other areas currently outside the area
                                                             of urbanization but in its path, the process will
                                                             require careful planning and the cooperation and
             ... these techniques must                       support of many divergent interests.
                   be able to stand the               C3     Limit Building Permits. Perhaps the most extreme
                        scrutiny of an                       growth management technique that the County may
             electorate that is rightly                      choose to employ is the imposition of limitations on
               skeptical of regulatory                       the numbers and types of new residential structures
               orfiscal measures that                        that may be built in any given year.            Such an
              impact theirfreedom or                         approach appears simple and relatively certain in its
                    their pocketbooks.                       results since it targets growth directly. However, the
                                                             implementation begs numerous questions of equity
                                                             and property rights that will be difficult to resolve.
                                                             The allocation of growth allotments by jurisdiction
                                                             would likely require central control. The further
                                                             partitioning of those allotments by housing type
                                                             would certainly prove to be a challenge to local
                                                             planners.    Nevertheless, many would argue that
                                                             Grand Traverse County is facing a severe growth
                                                             challenge and extreme measures to address it are
                                                             appropriate.

                                              As the Master Plan process proceeds, each of these techniques, and
                                              others, will receive consideration. The various impediments to
                                              implementation will be explored and some may be rejected.
                                              Others may prove to be unworkable in the short term and may
                                              require legislative support for complete implementation. Finally,
                                              many of these techniques must be able to stand the scrutiny of an
                                              electorate that is rightly skeptical of regulatory or fiscal measures
                                              that impact their freedom or their pocketbooks. Therefore, all of
                                              the techniques described above will be impossible to implement
                   0

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                                              effectively in Grand Traverse County without solid community




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                                                                          FUTURING REPORT              rand
                                                                                                       Traverse
                                                                                                         ounty
       consensus about the importance of the effort to manage local                                     1851
       growth. County and local political leaders can take the first step, but
       they must have the support of their constituents, as well.

       Therefore, the public consideration of the issues of growth
       management is vital to building that consensus. It is important that
       the Planning Commission and other leaders take on the hard work of
       meeting with community and business leaders and citizen
       organizations to describe and discuss the master planning effort so
       that the citizens of Grand Traverse County can make informed
       judgments about it.






































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                    FUTURING SESSION PARTICIPANTS
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                                                     APPENDIX I
                                         FUTURING SESSION PARTICIPANTS



            County Planning Commission (CPQ
                   Lew Coulter, Grand Traverse Soil & Water Conservation Service
                   Eric Huft-Robbins
                   Jerry Inman
                   Larry Inman
                   Norm Kline
                   Mike Mayse
                   Bruce Orttenburger
                   Matt Skeels, TC TALUS
                   Marsha Smith
                   Maureen Templeton, County Drain Commissioner
                   Paul Van Valkenburgh

            Planning Advisory Committee (PAC)
                   Joe Bartko, East Bay Township
                   Michelle Charters, Garfield Charter Township
                   Betty Cronander, Peninsula Township
                   Tim Goldsmith, Kingsley Village
                   Thad Ketchum, Whitewater Township
                   Doug Mansfield, Union Township
                   Jessica Sedlacek/Krysti Baker, Paradise Township
                   Dave Stremlow, Fife Lake Township
                   Mary Sullivan, Fife Lake Village
                   David Wineman, Blair Township

            Grand  Traverse County Board of Commissioners

                   Jason Allen
                   Richard Crowe
                   Virginia Olds
                   Margaret Underwood


            Community Resource Council (CRC)
                   Linda Anderson, Wexford County Planner
                   Bob Bach, Gourdie/Fraser & Associates
                   Jon Becker, Traverse City Arts Council
                   Tod Beynon, Forest Lodge Association
                   Russell L. Clark, R. Clark Associates, Inc.
                   Richard Campton, Traverse City Area Public Schools/Con Foster Museum Historical Committee
                   Bryan Crough, Downtown Development Association





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              Community Resource Council (CRQ (continued)
                     Beverly Cuthbert, Michigan Department of Social Services
                     Mike Dillenbeck, Grand Traverse County Road Commission
                     Jerry Dobek, International Dark-Sky Association
                     Brian Doyle, Environmental Testing & Consulting
                     John Faas, Grand Traverse Bay YMCA
                     Mary Jo Fifarek, Ameritech/Traverse City Area Chamber of Commerce
                     Robert Hammond, Bethlehem Lutheran Church
                     Sumitra Heinert, The Friendly Garden Club
                     Jim Holcombe, OCI Corp. of Michigan
                     Jeff Jones, North America VASA, Inc.
                     Diane Keelan, Women's Economic Development Organization
                     Holly Knibbs, Unitarian Universalists Fellowship of Grand Traverse
                     Joe Landis, Grand Traverse/Leelanau Community Mental Health
                     Andrew LaPointe, First of America
                     Anne Magoun, League of Women Voters/Unitarian Universalists Fellowship of Grand Traverse
                     Marlena McCall, B.E.A.D.
                     Michael McClelland, Grand Traverse County Deputy Administrator
                     Maxine Meach, The Friendly Garden Club
                     Joe Mikowski
                     Mark Mitchell, The Grand Traverse Resort
                     Mark Nadolski, Old Mission Conservancy
                     Dave Neiger, Benzie County
                     Sterling Nickerson, VISIONS, South Grand Traverse
                     Don Nixon, Traverse City Housing Commission
                     Jane Norton, League of Women Voters
                     Luci Novak, League of Women Voters
                     Ken Osbom, ICE
                     Laura Otwell, Cherry Capital Cycling Club
                     John Prokes, Environmental Testing & Consulting
                     John Rockershousen, Cherryland Electric Cooperative
                     A. Russell Schindler, Traverse City Area Chamber of Commerce
                     Robert Sniff, Consumers Power Company
                     Larry St. Ours, Michigan State Police
                     Rick Stein, Traverse City Board of Realtors
                     Martha Vreeland, Traverse City District Library
                     Dan Wolf, Traverse City Area Chamber of Commerce
                     Chris Wright, Grand Traverse Bay Watershed Initiative













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