Evaluating development impacts

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

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Additional copies of this paper
and other project reports are
available from:
Environmental Impact or
Assessment Project
Laboratory of Architecture
and Planning
Room 4-209
Massachusetts Institute
of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts
02139

Project 7itle: Project Director: AdministrativelResearch Staff:
Kathryn Hildebrand
Environmental Impact Lawrence Susskind John Pitkin
Assessment: Associate Professor of Urban Debra Sanderson Stinson
Technical and Studies and Planning Leova Wolf
Institutional Frontiers
Project Staff: Student Staff:
Deborah Cohen
Faculty: Norman Dale
Lawrence Bacow Rebecca Dickenson
Assistant Professor of Denise DiPasquale
Law and Environmental Policy Peter Furth
David Kagan
Michael Bever Gail Kendall
Professor of Materials Wendy Landman
Science and Engineering Mary Lord
Thomas Lustig
Philip Herr Brian Mellea
Associate Professor of Urban Craig Miller
Studies and Planning Richard Newcome
Richard Noss
Marvin Manheirn Wayne Raila
Professor of Civil Engineering Joanne Roche
Judah Rose
David Marks Ilan Salomon
Professor of Civil Engineering Barbara Slotpole
James Spencer
Michael O'Hare Alan Weinstein
Associate Professor of Urban JulieWondolleck
Studies and Planning

Jerome Rothenberg
Professor of Economics and
Urban Studies

COASTAL ZONE
INFORMATION CENTER

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
HT 166,H467 1978
5167558
Dec 30

U S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA
COASTAL SERVICES CENTER
2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE
CHARLESTON SC 29405-2413

Evaluating Development Impacts,

Philip Herr
Gene Slater
Robert Bluhm
Gene Slater
Robert Bluhm

Environmental Impact Assessment Project
Laboratory of Architecture and Planning
Mas
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

May 1978

Revised October 1978

CONTENTS

Preface

Introduction.

Chapter 1: Process of Impact Analysis 3
Chapter 2: Traffic Impacts 22
Chapter 3: Public Facilities Impacts 46
Chapter 4: Fiscal Impacts 63
Chapter 5: Economic Impacts 89
Chapter 6: Social Impacts 109
Chapter 7: Visual Impacts 126
Chapter 8: After Prediction 146
Selected Bibliography 153

LIST OF TABLES

1-1 (Sample) Impact Checklist 19
2-1 Common Traffic Volumes 24
2-2 Average Daily Traffic by Land Use 26
2-3 Evening Rush Hour Traffic 32
2-4 Unusual Peak Traffic Timing 32
2-5 Suggested Sight Distances from Driveway 35
2-6 Levels of Service 37
2-7 Major Traffic Generators 43
3-1 Likelihood of Public Water System 51
3-2 Likelihood of Public Sewerage 56

3-3 Justification for Solid Waste Collection 59

3- 4 Solid Waste Generated by Businesses 60
3-5. Proximity of Fire Stations 61
4-1 Num@er of Pupils Per Unit: Important Factors 72
-4-2 School Aid Change 80
.4-3 Sample Format: Tax Rate Change Due to Development 87
5-1@ Estimated Construction Jobs by Building Type 92
5-2 Square Feet Per Emplo 94
yment
5-3 Average Annual Wages in Massachusetts) 1974 96
5-4 Occupations for Different Industries 98

6-1 Persons Per New Unit 114

6-2 Population Characteristics, New and Old Dwellings 120

6-3 Government Structure 1975 124
8-1 come Impacts: Rezone to District "D" 147
8-2 Impact Summary: Golf Course Apartments 149
out

8-3 Graphic Impact Summary 149

8-4 Reduced Considerations

8-5 Public Pier Alternatives 151

LIST OF FIGURES

1-1 Alternative Decisions: Outcomes and Probabilities 12

2-1 Sample Trip Distribution for a Residential Development 30

2-2 Level of Service 36

2-3 Loudness Range of Comwn Traffic Sounds 41

PREFACE

This guidebook was initially prepared under sponsorship of the Massa-
chusetts Department of Community Affairs Office of Local Assistance and the
Town of Chelmsford Planning Board. It has,been thoroughly rewritten under
sponsorship of the EnvirOYLmental Impact-Assessment Project of the M.I.T.
Laboratory of Architecture and Planning. This rewriting benefitted from
direct observation of the guidebook's use in Chelmsford, from written evalu-
ations collected by D.C.A. from a number of the guidebook's users, from
telephone interviews with some of thoseusers, from re,riews by a number of
faculty and staff members of this Project,and others at M.I.T., and from use
as a course text, thesis guide, and.office manual.
Gene Slater, then of Philip B. Herr & Associates, wrote most of the

first draft. Robert Blubm did most of the second draf-_ revision as a staff
member of this Project. Philip Herrsupervised both, did,a third draft,
and probably muddied the waters.

INTRODUCTION

Scope
This book is intended as a practical guide for local governments ana-
lyzing impacts of develo pment proposals of community-wide significance. It
provider-, a general approach to impact analysis, suggests methods, points
out key issues, and provides background information.
The subject is vast. This guidebook can only deal with some of the.
important issues. It focusses on:
1. Massachusetts, with methods appropriate for the state's fiscal sys-
tem, zoning, and land-use controls. Massachusetts sources are used.where
availabl e. However, most of the methods, with slight modifications, wi 11

be useful in all states.
2. Small communities, with fewer than 50,000 people.
3.. "First-cut" methods for use by laypersons local officials and
citizens to identify major impacts.of a proposal, rather than more elab-
orate and technical approaches; professional analysis is suggested where
appropriate.
4. Traffic, public facility, fiscal, economic, social and visual im-
pacts, not impacts on the natural environment,,h.ard@to,-p.reai.ct social/
psychological effects (sociability, crime), compliance with local plans, or
changes in government operations (police patrol patterns, snow plow,routes,
etc..) except where they.affect the tax rate or require new facilities.
.5. Specific developmentyroposals for particular site6, not.long-range
comprehensive plans for the whole community.
6. External iSeacts of the development on the rest of the community,
rather than internal issues such as traffic circulation within'thesite.
7. Local impacts of the'development, not effects on the region or the
state; the regional planning agency, Office of State Planning, and.Depart-
ment of Community Affairs (Massachusetts) cgm help evaluate broader impacts
of development.
7. Local f'a
-procedures and regulations to provide a r.mework for impact
analyses.

How to Use This Book

This guidebook covers a wide range of issues and possible situations.
It is designed more for reference than for reading cover to cover.Organ-
ization is as follows:
a. The first chapter describes an overall approach to prepare for,
conduct, and interpret findings of impact studies.
It is strongly recommended that this chapter be, read first regard-
less of what specific impacts are being considered. It contains important
information not repeated elsewhere in the guidebook, establishes a vocabu-
lary for-impact analysis, outlines central concepts of impact prediction and
comparision, and highlights specific ways to use impact finding in local
land use decision making.
b. The next six chapters are "How To Do It" chapters that deal with,
particular issues:. e.g., fiscal impacts, traffic impacts Only som e of the
sections will be relevant for any particular proposal.
c. Chapter 8 discusses pulling all of theimpact predictions together
and using that in decision-making.

CHAPTER 1

PROCESS OF IMPACT ANALYSIS

Why Impact Analysis?
Communities are often confronted with maj or development proposals.whose
effects are large, mixed, unclear, and perhaps hotly disputed. They may
assume community-wide significance for several reasons@
They may be unusually large: major subdivisions, multi-family hous-
ing, shopping centers, or industrial parks.
Whether large or small, they may be precedent setting, such as the
first subdivision in farmland or forest areas of town.
They m. ay represent important deviations, from thecommunityls planning
for growth.
They may exceed the capacity of a-public facility which must service

them.-

The proposed site may be a critical area, such as a visually promin-
ent bluff, a location near a town's major gateway, near a.landmark, or for
other reasons symbolically significant to the community...

A careful and systematic consideration of the consequences of.such pro-
posals will help*to:
1.1, Inform. local discussion and understanding of the proposal;
2. Bring issues out into the open and deal with them explicitly;
3. Ensure consistency and fairness.by applying a systematic procedure
from one proposal review to the next;
4. Suggest ways of changing the proposal so that it becomes more re-
sponsive to local needs;
5. 'Provide information for and help justify the public decision; e.g.,
a zoning amendment, 'special permit,. variance, subdivision.plan approval, or
urban renewal project;
6., Identify public facilities and services that may need to- be built,
extended, or whose operating schedule and procedures may need tobe.modified;
@7. Identify local issues which go beyond the particular development.

Analysis may also be helpful for local input into a state or federal deti-
siori such as the Massachusetts State Housing Appeal C16mmittee's decision on
a-Ch. 774, low and moderate income housing project.

proposal, suggesting an agenda for community action (e.g.., revising zoning
requirements,.studying-ceirtain public facilities in more depth); analysis
of a specific and perhaps controversial,major development-can provide the
concreteness and sense of urgency that suggestions in general planning docu-
ments such as A Master Plan sometimes lack.
impact analysis should..not be used,however, -to delay a proposal to.'
death. Where imposed simply as an e@xtra ."hurdle," analysis Is unfair to the,
developer, legally questionable, and often wastes the developer's and com-
munity's time, money and energy.
impact analysis@can be most effective when treated, as an integral p aX t
of the@community* decision-making process. Timing, contents and.method,,Lof,
preparation should all be keyed to that process. Following is' a stepa7by-:
6tep-discus,sion.of how a community might use impact analysis.to aid local
decisions. .2

STEP 1@ PREPARE FOR MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS

The following actions..can.be taken before the community@is 'faced with,.
a maj,or propos al., (Not all are relevant or needed in any one co ity.)

Amend Regulations to Control Impacts
Many potential development impacts are ordinarily controlled by st
and
ards in the zoning bylaw and subdivision regulations,, such ds,those dealing
with off-stredt parking, noise and-vibration levels, number of units'-in.each
multi-family structure, drainage and erosion. Parking impacts, for example,
can often.be confined to'the site by adequate off-street parking riquirements...
.Wherever clear and generallyzpplicable'standards are"possible, they provide
the fairest, simplest, and most efficient''way to control impacfs.*
Amend Regulations @o_Ailow Better Review
It,is often appropriate to require a special permit or other review and
approval procedure fordevelopments likely to have major impacts on the com-

1Extra delays can be'avoided in some cases by conducting impact studies as
part of.special permit or site plan revi.ew procedures or at the same time
as (and input into) a federally or state imposed environmental.assessment
pr ocedure.
2A valuable book on this subject is Philip Schae'nman,-,Using anImpact Mea s-
urement System to Evaluate Land Development, Washington, D.C.: U,rban,,Insti-
tute, 1976.

munity, rather than allow them automatically if they are in the right loca-
tion and category of use. The special permit process enables officials to
analyze a specific development proposa"-, obtain detailed information from
the developer, learn the views of interested parties through a public hear-
ing, attach conditions (as suggested by the analysis) and make a discretion-
ary decision based on prestated criteria. Such a process might be required
for all developments over some size (e.g., 10,000 sq.ft. floor area), or in
certain categories of use '(heliports), or in certain locations (steep slopes).

Amend Regulations to Require Impact Data
Site plan review, specialpermit, and subdivision submisstion require-
ments can oblige the developer to detail major development impacts and to
conduct at least some of the impact analyses (which should be reviewed.care-
fully by-other parties)..
Such submission requirements should make clearin advance exactly what
information and analyses are required. The scope of that information and
analysis should be reasonably relatedto the scale of the,-p::roposal, and
shduld,fodus on information needed for decisions to be: mad6,,, not just broadly
interesting data.

Amend Regulations to Link Approvals to Impacts
Impact criteria can be specified in local zoning as the-basis for spe-'
cial permit approval or for density bonuses, as provided in the new Massa-
chusetts.Zoning Act.. These criteria provide an obvious focus for the ana-
lysis. Ways of relating criteria to permit approval include:'
a. Individual guidelines, each of which should be satisfied, such as
"Shopping Centers should be so located that,traffic is not increased 50% or
more above current average daily traffic volumes at any location within 1000
feet of the development" and "vehicles egressing from shopping centers shall
have-at least 400 feet visibility in each travel direction:,. 11:etc. 4 @or
b. 'Broad guidelines calling for an overall weighing bf negative im-
pacts against positive impacts; for example:
"SpeciIal permits shall be granted by.,the Special Permit
Granting Authority only upon its written determination that the
proposed use will not have adverse effects iqh:-_ch overbalance its
beneficial effects on either the neighborhood or the town, in
view of the particular characteristics of the site 'and of the

-6-

proposal in relation to that site. The determination shall indi-
cate consideration of each of the following:
a. Social, economic, or community needs which are served by
the proposal;
b. Traffic flow and safety;
c. Adequacy of utilitieas and other public services;
d. Neighborhood character and social structure;
e Qualities of the natural envirionmwnt; and
f. Potential fiscal impact."

Pre-Arrange for Techniical Assistance
Major development proposals occur on an irregularbasis. It is valu-
able for the community to have an on-going arrangement to provide capabili-
ties for conducting such analyses. This can avoid last-minute scrambling
and enble the-experience of each impact analysis to help with the,next.
The analyst's role-is to-structure study efforts, conduct specific
studies, obtain and review data from other public agencies-and the developer,
summarize findings in charts or writing, and report back to and work with the
agency responsible for the analysis.
Larger communities generally assign planning department staff to this
task. Some small communities retain an outside professional for these con-
tingncies as well as for other technical assistance. A regional planning
agency.can provide similar services for it's member communities,
.A non-professional may also serve as the analyst., perhaps a Planning
Board member, C.E.T.A. employee, other-municipal official or employee or
private citizen who is interested in the subject, willing to invest time.
and energy, willing to tackle a wide range of issues and deal with numbers,
and who is widely regarded as unbiased.

Build Local Data Base
If the, community has an extensive, well-organized data base before de-
velopment proposals are made, it can then conduct analyses quickly and effi-
ciently.
Impact analysis relies heavily on such data as tax rates, levies and
assessments; school enrollments; traffic Volumes and accident records; water
consumption and capacity; building permits; capital improvement plans; hous-
ing and population data; studies of existing developments in the community.

Where such data does not.exist or is hard to obtain, impact analyses become
time-consuming or superficial.
This data base can be assembled and expanded by major All-at-once ef-
forts such as preparing master plans and/or regularly keeping and updating
such information (perhaps one duty of a local person who conducts impact
analyses).

Define Community Objectives, Prepare Impact Checklist
Development should be evaluated in terms of local concerns and objec-
tives. It is important to spell these objectives out in advance in order
that proposals can be initially designed to reflect local concerns, andin
order to give better assurance of fairness and consistency in decisions.
The.objectives.should be expressed in terms useful to developers. Local
objectives can be documented in a variety of ways,.such as by formulating:-
a formal,community growth policy or master,plan;
---.1ocal response to the 1976 Massachusetts State Growth.Policy Ques-
tionnaire issued by the Office of State Planning;
specific criteria for the public decision (.special-permit, site
plan review);
--.a,checklist against which to review development proposals; a
sample checklist is shown on page 19, b ut rWs t: be adjusted to

reflect local concerns.

STEP:2.. SCREEN PROPOSALS

Development proposals are presented to a public agency,_,which must then
decide how to review each. Some deserve detailed study. Others, usually
thevast majority, do not. The following approach can be used to sort out
proposals and determine an appropriate review process for each'.

Informal Review by A
_gency
Officials can quickly screen all proposals, selecting.o'ut for further
review.those proposals which seem important or of uncertain merit or contro-
versial because of, for example, their size, their precedent-seitting nature,
or the sensitivity of their sites.

Formal Review by AgenSX, Using Checklist
Those selected proposals can then be screened more formally with a com-

-8-

prehensive checklist (such as the one on page 19). Look, for potentially
significant impacts and guess whether each will be good or bad (value judge-
ments are built into some items: job opportunities presumably are good,
traffic hazards bad).
Proposals can then be sorted into two groups:
a. Those not needing further study because their significant impacts
are easy to predict,or are almost all good or all bad or are very limited
in number; for such proposals, the filled-in checklist may itself be a use-
ful aid in the public decision.
b. Those needing further analysis to clarify critical impacts or the
balance among them.

Decide Scope of Citizen Participation
The public agency should decide how to engage Citizen partiipation in
the impact analysis process. It is often valuable to hear from local resi-
dents early in the analysis process. They can help indentify the issues that
deserve the most attention before large amounts of time and energy are in-
vested. Too often, the final public heating reveals that the issues studied
in the most detail were not the ones people were really concerned about.
Participation can be relatively brief or extensive. Possible formats
include:
a. Informal hearings. An informal public meeting could be scheduled
to hear from neighbors of the proposed development and others who are inter-
ested. After the studies are conducted, preliminary findings should be ore-
sented to another public meeting, to allow input into the final conclusions.
b. Citizen panels to guide studies. More extensive participation may
be valuable where the development is very large and controversial. An under-
lying issue in such cases is often public distrust of the developer and,
sometimes, of local officials. An ordinary technical analysis prepared by a
small set of public officials (whether or not helped by outside technicians)
is then likely to be seen as biased or only marginally relevant to the con-
troversy.
Citizen panels can be established to guide,the studies, providing input
and review at each state in the analysis. Such a process can help build pub-
lic understandingq and trust. The resulting analysis is likely to be much
more sensitive to local concerns, focused on critical issues, and respected

in the community than one prepared by technicians without such involvement.
Structuring and carrying out such a participatory.program requires
time (p robably two to three months)-, careful design, and substantial tech-
nical input. Organization has to be arranged so that results are'not bi-
ased (or viewed as being biased) by self-selection-of participants. A basic
problem is how to recruit and retain participants whose.self-interests aren't
importantly involved. One way is to make the process itself-engaging through
game-like techniques, another to reward participants with publicity or even
money. Participants need an adequate opportunity to develop understanding
of the proposal being considered. They need an opportunity for dialogue,
preferably first with people having similar interests, later with people
having different ones. Their process should be docllmented@a t each step of
the way. Finally, again, all this needs to be made engag*ng-and rewarding,
or all,but the.most committed (biased?) will.drop out.

'STEF 3. STRUCTURE STUDY EFFORT

The next step is to give a clear structure to the-study,effort. This

involves:

defining alternative choices to be analyzed
lor each alternative' listing the possible resulting:outdomes;
defining the comparison system;
choosing the issues that deserve detailed attention;-
'choosing whowill give them that attention.

This initial structuring (called "scoping" by.E.O.E.A. in administering
the,Mass.adhusetts impact law) is crucial to the usefulnesii,of the study r6-
results. Selecting the wrong alternatives to analyze, studying the wrong
issues, or using inappropriate spatial or temporal boundaries fatally flaw
more imr)act 4nalyseg than do inaccurate predictions,: no amount of predic-
tive and-'evaluative effort can make an ill-framed Study useful.

Def.ine theAltern.atives to be Analyzed
Public decisions, especially those regarding [email protected] development,
often pecmit a wide range of possible outcomes. Rezoning for commerce

See Lawrence Halprin and Jim Burns, Taking Part: A Workshop Approach to
Collective Creativity, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1974, for innovative
approaches to engaging participation.

doesn't assure new retailing: maybe that same rezoning allows apartments,
and that is what the town gets, not the retailing the developer illustrated
in seeking rezoning. "Retailing" isn't a public decision alternative, but
"commercial rezoning" is,and has retailing as one possible outcome, along
with apartments, vacant land, and others. Because public land management
decisions seldom have determinate outcomes, it is essential that impact
analysis be focused on the decision choices and their full range of possible
outcomes, and not just on select outcomes. In most cases, that isn't the
same as analyzing what the developer may describe as his intended develop-
ment, since:
a. The developer may not actually be able to carry out his intent be-
cause of unforseen market, financing, or other contingencies.
b. The developer may not even intend carrying out the proposal he il-
lustrates. Rezoning almost never carries a commitment to a speci-
fic scheme, and even special permits often allow a wide range of
alternatives under them.
c. Some part of what is proposed might not be effected by the present
decision, perhaps because that part, already has all, necessary ap-
provals, or is located in another jurisdiction.
d. The real issue may be larger than the submitted proposal. Approval
of a project might be, for example, precedent-setting. Approval of
a large development might stimulate additional development of the
same kind. The proposal might be situated on only a small piece
of a larger area whose entire rezoning is being decided upon.
Accordingly it is necessary to carefully define exactly what is to be
analyzed. In some cases, it will be the developer's proposal or some modi-
fication of it. In other cases., it will be the range of expectable out-
domes possible under the requested approval..

Define Outcomes
Each alternative decision will have one or more possible outcomes. Re-
zoning a hypothetical site to allow apartments might result in:
a. Immediate apartment development (the usual presumption).
b. Apartment development after a long wait for market and financing
to be favorable.

c., Single family development (sometimes higher-dens,ity single-family
development is allowed by the same rezo ning which allows apa rt-
ments, and might be moreattractiveto the.,developer under altered
market conditions).
d. No development for several decades, despite rezoning.

Deciding not to rezone the site might result in:
a. No development for several decades,(the usual presumption for ana-
lysis).
b. Single family development at relatively low density,right away.
c. Apartment development after A long wait, authorized by a later
political circumstance.

Thus the two decision alternatives have five distinct possible outcomes
(actuallythere are more, but of low enough likelihood to be safely ignored).
The Possible outcomes following from.each decision are much the same; the
most important difference between the alternative dedision&is the relative
likelihood of each ok.the outcomes (Figure 1-1)

Judged likelihood of outcomes if the town
Approves, Disapproves
rezoning rezoning

Immediate apartments -High (60%) None 0%)
Later apartments Slight (10%) Fair (20%)
High-density single family.housing Fair (20%) None 0%)
Lower-@-density single family housing None 0%) Strong (40%)
No development for decades 'Slight (10%) Strong (40%)'-

Some of the above (100%) (100%)

These outcomes are the specific subject of impact analysis. With abun-
dant time.and resources, all five outcomes would be analyzed.. With limited
resources, perhaps only immediate apartments, lower density single-familyi
and no development would be analyzed.
Regrettably, there is another complication. The apartments, if.not
built on this site, may be built elsewhere within the town,'or they may-,be
substituted for by two-family houses by various builders on scattered sites.

FIGURE 1-1
ALTERNATIVE DECISIONS: OUTCOMES AND PROBABILITIES

ALTERNATIVE
DECISIONS PROBABILITIES OUTCOMES

60%
Approve Multifamily
Rezoning Now

10%

0% Multifamily
Later

10%

High Density
-F
Sirigle. amily,

20%

L'wDensity
-Family
Single
40%

Disapprove
Rezoning 40%

Nothing

In the final assessing of the merits of decision alternatives, those sub-
stitution effects also need to be considered. If of high enough likelihood,
one or more of them may deserve full impact analysis.

Define the Comparison System
a. What is the geographic scope of the analysis? In comparing alter-
natives, use of a consistent geographic sco pe is important. Using a consis-
tent scope will help ensure that a consistent set of iaterests is reflected
in each alternative analysis. Normally, scope should be that of the eeci-
sion unit: townwide if the decision is a town decision, river-basinwide if
it is a basin organization decision, etc.
Impacts may very well spill over the boundaries of the area that has
been defined for the purposes of impact analysis. Alternative townwide de-
cisions'may be examined by comparing.their impacts within the geographic
scope of-'the.town; yet, the decisions may have significant impacts on neigh-
boring municipalities or the region. The important matter,is that the scope
be made explicit so one can be aware of what areas are.being included or ex-
cluded in the comparison of alternatives. Other agencies., such as.the
regional planning agency, Office of 8tate Planning,, and the Department of
Community Affairs, can then be enlisted to help evaluate such broader.impacts.
b. What is the baseline against which the impacts of alternative de-
cisions will be measured? The baseline must be explicit and must be consis-
tent from one comparison to the next.
c. What is the time horizon of the outcomes of each alternative,deci-
pion? It is important to people (as well as to budgets and,public,fadility
plans) whether impacts are expected id five years or@in twenty years.
.We are interested in evaluating what difference accepting or rejecting
a-proposal makes for any given impact. Therefore, it is important to specify
a common time horizon from which to measure change. For example, it is not
valid,.to. compare the impact of a project in ten years with current.cor-di-
tions; compare it with a ten year projection of the status.quo,(which is
unlikely to be similar to the current state).
How long will predicted impacts last? For example, tax benefits may
not last if senice costs increase or if a lowered tax rate.induces rapid
growth. A modest increase in traffic congestion may relieve.itself as
motorists respond by redistributing themselves on less congested routes.

Selection of the horizon can be crucial. Many comparisons of alternatives
may reverse outcomes at different points in time. Perhap's several horizons
need to be analyzed.1

Choose Issues that Deserve Detailed.Attention

Not all. issues can or should be studied in detail. Study effort should
focus on those issues where analysis would be most helpful, including those
which meet all the following standards:
a. relevant to the public decision; for example, fiscal impacts are
appropriately considered when rezoning, but not when reviewing a subdivision
plan, since that isn't A legally proper consideration under Massachusetts
law for plan disapproval or modification;
b. can and need to be clarified by technical analysis; some impacts
may already be clear, others so elusive that potential analysis would not be.
very useful;
C. of particular local concern; e.g., development impacts on water or
schools where a new system or significant expansion may be needed; and
d. are likely to be significantly affected by the development proposal
(significant impacts may already have been quickly identified when going
through the checklist to screen the proposal).
Sources for identifying significant impacts include:
-- Residents' concerns emerging from participatory efforts;
-- Local experience of similar developments including the concerns they
raised and their actual impacts;
-- The discussion in this guidebook of key development attibutes which
affect each type of impact;
-- Analogy with the experience of other communities which have had a
similar development; if a million-square-foot shopping center is
proposed, it might be revealing to contract a town having one, to
find out what unanticipated impacts occurred ther.

1 For those comfortable with them, there are more sophisticated quantitiative
approaches for dealing with uncertainty and timing of consequences, such as
decision theory and present value analysis. See, for example, Howard Raiffa,
Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty,
Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley, 1968; James Van Horne, Financial Management
and Policy, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1974. Such non-intuitive
approaches may, however, discourage many citizens form trying to understand
the analysis.

Issues should be framed as specifically as possible, in order to focus
study effort. For example, the sample checklist breaks "traffic" down into
more specific issues of peak.hour congestion, safety hazards, and street
character. Especially where there is controversy, it is useful to Agree on
what issues are being debated.

Choose Who Will Study Each Issue
Indicate who will:study each issue, in order to allocate budget and
responsit,ilities and to get the effortiunderway.
Studies may be provided and paid for by the,community, by the developer,
or by both together. It is generally valuablefor a single person (or or-
to be in charge of the overall effort, but particular issues may
be assigned to a public agency (e.g., school department, conservation com-
mission), the developer's architects and engineers,, or other specialists.:.:

STEP 4. PREDICT IMPACTS

Key Questions
Analysis should addressthe :following questions:
a. @'For each impact category that has been selected for study, what are
the results for each of the outcomes being considered? It-is generally use-
.0,:
--.indicate all significant impacts (including. obvious oneB)., not just
those studied in detail;
where impacts are still unclear or unknown, thattoo should be indi-
cated (in table format, a simple 'T' is quite eloquent);
--.show how large each impact would be (in table format',,simpie orders
of.magnitude [is it closest to 10, 100, or 1000] are often best).
b. Will any significant secondary impacts arise under,each outcome?
New development can stimulate further development and/or immigration with
impacts.on traffic, taxes, etc.
c. Who will be post affected? Elderly may benefit differently from
teenagers, workers from businessmen, renters from owners, potential new-
comers from long-time residents. Many proposals are economically and fis-
cally good for the community As a whole, but impose traffic and aesthetic
burdens on the surrounding neighborhood. Effects on different groups in
the community (often called "distributional impacts") should be noted.

Methods

The level of detail appropriate.for analysis will vary @,:rom one issue
to another, depending on its importance, the available data, and the skills
of the analyst. For example, fairly precise predictions may beneeded to
choose the, "right number" of dwelling.units in a development. But to decide
whether.or not to have.,a.factory, one may require only crude results to lo-
cate the decision safely in the,"yes" or it no" zone. It-shoul Id be kept in
mind that the precisio n of the analysis os often limited by unreducible un-
certainty of a key element, making great precision'in other parts of the.
analysis irrelevant., For example, if the percentage of dwelling units to.be
seasonally occupied is,utterly unpredictable, refining the predicted number
of,school children*per year-round dwelling,to two decimal places is a waste
ofenergy.,
Specifid,study methods are outlined in later chapters. In general,
studies should.be based on:
reasonable; approximate numbers and rough
estimates aie@often all that is needed or use f ul''

thinking through and stating other qualitative impacts, issues
should,Rnot be ignored because they are hard to quantify.

Indicate'Uncertainties

The uncertainty of the predictions should be clearly stated. Impact
analyses rely on past studies of other developments, assumptions about future
change in the community and often crude methods for allocating impacts,among
types of development.-These uncertainties can at least be reflected by
rounding off estimates@, putting numbers -in,a range'from. low to high, or
stating the results qualitatively. More than two figures accuracy (11, not
10.78) is rarely justified.
More.fundamental.un.certainties should also be stated. Findings may be
very sensitive to certain,assumptions,. such as,those.about:
the probability of development;
v@hat:form development will take in.the long run; later changes in a'
'preliminary scheme might make impacts much better or worse;
the expected demand of new development, e.g., water use, number of
school children'...d6odnt-of traffic (general standards may not fit
the particular development for one reason or another);

the state's fiscal system, since changes might reduce.local fiscal
consequences of development.
Indicate where alternative, but still reasonable, aSSUMPtiOUB would
give very different results.

STEP 5. EVALUATE IMPACTS

Predicting how much traffic or taxes or social change a development will
generate is quite different from evaluating those impacts: assessing how
good or bad each impact is in relation to the others, so as, to reach summary
..conclusions regarding the advisability of one decision alternative versus
another. For any individual or interest group there is the question of how
impacts trade-off'against one another: how much traffic increase counter-
balances,a given gain in neighborhood.recreation space?. For the decision-
making body, a further difficulty is the balancing of the interests of dif-
ferent groups: how much tax benefit citywide counterbalances a given traffic
increase. impacing this particular neighborhood?
Techniques for structuring such evaluations are discussed in Chapter.8.

STEP 6. USE FINDINGS-IN.DECISION

''The major reason for making the impact analysis is in order to provide
information to those making a decision. Getting the findings reflected in
the'deicision requires linking the analysis and decision-making processes,
.and finding ways of assuring that the actions which follow the decision
really conform with all.of its stipulations, easy when it is.ptiblic buil-.
ding which is involved, but sometimes hard when private development is in-
volved.-Again, this is discussed in Chapter 8.

SUMMARY

Step 1. Prepare'for Major Development Proposals
0 Amend regulations.
e Pre-arrange,for technical assi3tance.

e Build local data base.

9 Prepare impact checklist.

Step 2., Screen Proposals

* Agency review.
0 Citizen participation.

Step 3. Structure@ Study Effort

� Define the alternative decisions.

� Define the outcomes of each alternative and estimate their relative
likelihoods.

*.'Define the comparison system.
Specify a consistent geographic scope for comparing impacts of
'different outcomes.

Establish a consistent baseline from which to,,measure.change.

Establish a consistent time horizon.

a Select issues deserving detailed attention.
9 Choose -who will study each isaue.

Step 4. Predict Ig2acts
0 Round off estimates; give ranges where possible.
e Measure impacts on different groups (if significan@t).
a Consider secondary impacts.

Step 5. Evaluate Impacts
e Are impacts of one alternative.better or worse than impacts of another
alternative?
*.What population groups.wi.11 gain or, lose (if any)?
9 Highlight key choices.

Step 6.' Use Findings in-, Decision

MON M M, M M M@ M.'M M'M M- M

TABLE 1-1
(SANPLE) INPACT CHECKLIST

Impact likely to be
Impact on Not@- Significant Donit Deserves furt
Significant Good Bad 'Know study by
Traffic
Congestion at peak hour
Safety hazards
Quality of life on nearby streets

Public Facilities

Need for major school additions or
construction
Need for major. improvements in
public water system
Need for major improvements in
public sewer system
Need for major improvements in
public recreation facilities
Need for major improvements in
other public facilities:
(specifiy)

Municipal Finances

Local tax rate.,
Bonded indebtedness

Economy
Increase in J.ob opportunities
Type of job opportunities
Sales.level of existing bu6inesses
Entrepreneurial,.opportunities

TABLE 1-1 (continued)

Imp act likely to be Deserves furt
impact on No t, S.ignificant D n't
0 study by
Signifidant Good Bad Know.-._
Economy (continued)
Dii@ersity of the local economy,
other long- term effects
Nearby property values

So.cial Character
C 6m, 'unity popu lation, total and
growth rate
Local housing supply, range of
'choice, esp. for low and,
moderate income@ residents
Lo-cal government structure, style
-Community ajnenities, e.g. , range of
.Shops, facilities; historic si.tees
Visual Character of Area
Tmage of community held by residents
and outsiders

Other Municipalities
spliiovers on neighboring
c6ifimunities
Spillovers on region or state
Cdfftmunity Growth and Planning
D60arture ftom-Maiter Plan or'
community growth policy
Site valuable for (or well-suited
io) other kinds of development
Prece'derits for future public
decisions

TABLE 1-1 (continued)

Impact likely to be Deserves fui
impact on- Not Significant Don't study b3
Significant Good Bad Know

Community Growth and Planning (continued)
Spatial pattern of growth in the
community
Stimulus to further development

Natural Environment

Level of air pollutants
Groundwater and surface water
quality (e.g., "highest safe use")
Noise and vibration level in
vicinity
Erosion on and off-site
Risk and damage of natural disaster
(e.g., building on a floof plain)
Ecological stability of fragile
areas (such as dunes and wetlands)
Groundwater level
Wildlife habitats
Natural vegetation, esp. unusual
species and mature trees

aNot dealt with in this guidebook
b
See bibliography for some sources

CHAPTER 2

TRAFFIC INPACTS

Traffic analysis'can be conducted at several levels of detail. -Lay
officials and citizens can make rough estimates of the traffic impacts 9f:a
proposal, or professional traffic engineers can be asked to provide-a more..
thirough,, elaborate and precise analysis.
This chapter outlines a set of quick methods and background inform&_
tion for non-profession.als. These may be useful for determining possible
impacts,, for deciding whether a professional.analysis isneeded, and for
rE:viewing a professional analysis.
In addition, in some cases a community might require developers to sub-
mit professional traffic analyses as part of special permit applications.
In this way the community could shift the burden of.analysis to those pro-
posing major traffic generators.
Whether traffic analyses are conducted by laymen or professionais,
they should'.genera'lly focus,on the following questions:
To what extent will traffic hazards increase on rby streets9
nea
This@is often the most urgent and serious concern about new development'.
b. To what extent will there by'donkestion on nearby streets?
C. How.will added traffic affect the quality.of life on nearby
streets, whether or not there' are major safety or congestion p!roblqmsT.
In addition, the,analysis should identify-possibl,e actions by.the de-
veloper or the community that would make the above impacts less@,serious.
This might suggest conditions for-approving the proposal (e.g., shift the
entrance, reduce the size of.-the development) and indicate'the extent of
related public street improvements.

MOUNT OF TRAFFIC

Before.analyzing-specific impacts on safety, congestion, and the quality
of life on nearby streets, one must conduct a preliminary analysis. One@must
IL
esti e to what degree alternative development outcomes will increase vehicle

Parking impacts are not treated here. It.is assumed that off-street parking
standards for different uses are contained in a community's zoning by-law and
that such regulation can adequately control impact.

trips. First, how much will average, daily traffic at critical locations
increase?' This data will be useful in assessing the traffic impact on
safety and quality of life. Second,,how much will peak hour traffic in-
crease at critical locations? This will be essential for evaluating impact
on congestion. The following steps are involved.

l.. AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC ANALYSIS

1.1 Determine Current Traffic
The local,DPW, Highway Department, orPolice Department may have traf-
fic count data. Many towns have recent data collected for the.TOPICS pro-
gram of highway improvements. You can conduct a traffic count if no recent
count'is available, or just guess. Use of Table 2-1 should enable aguess
that..will at least be "in the ballpark," and thatis often,@good enough.,

1.2..Estimate Offsite Daily Traffic. Increase
Estimate future traffic increase on nearby streets that-is expected
anyway.*1n the.absence of any on-@ite development. Other new development may
be: built along the road in the next few years. 'Its potential traffic should
bc estimated (using methods of steps 1.3 and 1.4) in..order to get a--realis-
2
t-1c picture of Jonge-term. traffic on the road. There may also be gradual

i.. 24-hour counter maybe used. On residential streets, simply count_tr&f-
fic during the evening rush hour (usually about 4:30-5:30-pm@) And mult
3 ipiy
b3jo,to,'get a rough estimate of daily traffic. (Incidentally, an evening
ivsh.hour.c:ount will also be useful for Step 8.)
2
it may,be hard to predict whether (and when) large vacant areas near the
pippos.al will be developed. The traffic estimate should be adjusted to re-
flect the fact t1lat development may not occur for many years. @One can do
this by (1) estimating potential traffic from the area (if fully developed),
and.(2) multiplying this by the probability of development occuring within
a certain number of years (say 5 or 10). For example, say -there are 500
acres.of vacant land served by a critical street. There seems about a 40%
chance that.all the land will be developed withl,single-family homes within
the next 5 years. Expected traffic can be estimated as follows:

500 acres of vacant land served
x 2 # of dwelling units per acre (current zoning)
1,000 -possible # of dwelling units
x 8.5 trips per dwelling unit (Table 2-2)
8,500 possible total trips from vacant land
x .50 @propqrtion using North Street
4:,250 possible trips using North Street
.40 probability of full development within 5 years
.1,700 expected trips from now-vacant land near proposal'in,5 years

TIULE 2-1
COMMN.TRAFFIC VOLUMES

Type of Road '[email protected] Traffic

Community_Streets

Lane or dead-end street 75 - 350
Local street serving abutting property 1001- 1,000
Collector street serving local streets 800 3,000
Arterial street distributing traffic throughout
communities of 5,000+ population (often the
main shopping street:
Minor (connects neighborhoods or entire small 3,000--- 7,000
communities)
Maj-or 7,000.- -.AO 000a,

State and Federal Highways
econdary highways, relatively short, connecting 1,000 8,000
centers of up to 15,000 population each (e.g.,
Routes 6A, 32, 63., 119)
a
Primary Highways (e.g@-, US 20, US 5, US 44, Rte. 5,000 35,000,
9, Rte. 140)
Limited Access Highways (e.g., 1-91, 1-93, Rte. 201000 120,MO a
3, Rte. 128)

aHigher part of range usually occurs in large metropolitan areai-@.

Sources: Massachusetts Department of Public Works., "A Statewide Highway
Transportation Plan," 1968.
Massachusetts Department of Public Works, "1974 Traffic Vol S."
Urban Land Institute, American Society of Civil Engineers, and.
National Association of Home Builders, "Residential Streets:,
Objectives, Principles, and Design Considerations," 1974.

traffic growth on the road from more diffuse sources, such as areawide pop-

ulation and travel increases.

1.3, Estimate Traffic From Development Outcomes
Consider what development is likely to occur under each outcome follow-
ing alternative decisions. Analyses should be completed foreach outcome
separately, and then compared.
Estimate the total amount of daily traffic thateach development out-
come-will generate. This is usually measured as the total number of vehicle
trips which begin or end on the site on an average day. Estimates can be
based on studies of existing developments throughout the country; some re-
sults Are summarized in Table 2-2.
The following should be kept'in mind when using these or other numbers:
a.. These numbers are only rough guides. Studies show avide, and often.
une .kplained, range of results,jsuggesting caution and skepticism in applying
general findings to a particular proposal. In fact, each professional ana-
lyst wholooks at a proposal will probably come up with a somewhat.different
traffic estimate, based on his judgement and experience. Where the estimate
is.far outside the common range in Table 2-2, however, one should ask how
the number'was estimated. The numbers do not reflect (if any of the energy
crisis on auto.ridership.
Make sure estimates. are comparable.' Some studies@,measure person-
trips (not vehicle-trips), peak hour trips (not daily tripd),.or,round trips
(not trirs each way). One study may show trips per acre of industry, another-
per employee, and still Another per 1,000 square feet of gross floor area.
c. These numbers assume almost all trips are by automobile.' If tran"
sit and walking would account, say, for half the trips at a new.de.velopment,
simply're(iuce the Table 2-2 estimate by half.
d. If the outcome involves one use replacing another' (e.g., apartments
displacing golf course), the traffic formerly generated by the displaced use
is.subtractdd from that of the new use. Occasionally, new development brings
less traffic than the use it displaces: the analysis can stop therel

1 These are, one-way trips. Each arrival isc,one trip; each.,delpar tuFe is one
trip.

TABLE 2-2
AVERAGE DAILI.TRAFF.IC BY'LAND USE

Average Daily_Traffic (Vehic
Land Use Trips per: Average Com

Residential
Single-family Dwelling unit 8.5 .6
.Multi-family 6.5 3
Mobile homes 6 4

Commercial
Shopping centers
Regional (500,000+ gsf) 19000'gsf .40 30
Community (100,000-500,000 gsf) 80 50
Neighborhood (-100,000 gsf) 100 60
Supermarket
130 100
Discount store 40 30
Drive-in bank' each 1,500 1,000
Gas station each 400 300
Other stores gsf @50 20
Fast food restaurants 600 400
Other restaurants 150 40
Hotels, motels with convention facilities room 9.2 8.
Other motels room 5.6 4

Industrial
Manufacturing
d e
Over 500,000 gsf employee 2 2f 1.
Le'ss than 500,000 gsf 2:9 2.
Research and development 2.49 2.
h
Industrial park 3.7 2.
Warehouse 4.51 3
Truck terminal .1,000 gsf i2 - 10.

Office
General office 1,0010:, gsf 11i
Medical office .53 50

TABLE 2-2 (continued)

Average,Daily Traffic (Vehic
Trips.pdr:
-Land Use
Average Co

Institutional
University hospital bed 37 20
General hospital 14, 8
Long-term care hospital 3.5 k 3
College student 2.4 1
Airport 1 .acr e 3.6 2

Recreation
Stadium, spectator 1 M 0
Drive-in theatre parking space 2 1
Golf course acre 6 @.2
Marina boat berth 4 2

gsf gross::square feet building floor area

a
within, range, higher if homes expensive, in outlying areast and/or with young families and
b
New England or East Coast estimates are used, since they are quite different from national
c
within range,, higher if large units (2, 3 and 4 bedrooms) and/or in outlying areas; very 1
res:Ldents
dindustrial uses can-also be estimated per 1,,000 gross sq.ft. or per acre, but these are le
e
average 4.2 per 1,000 gsf 32 per, acre
f
average 4.9 per 1,000 gsf,, 22 per acre
gaverage = 5.1 per 1,,000 gsf,, 73 per acre
h
average = 9.3 per 1,000 gsf, 76 per.acre
i
average 5.5 per 1,000 gsf, 73 per acre
,.JGovernment offices are higher, perhaps twice as high

TABLE 2-2 .(Continued)

kGovernment offices are higher, perhaps.twice-as high

for small private planes

m
,assumes full attendance

Sources: Herr Associates estimates based on:

Dennis L. Hansen, Volume XV Travel u-eneration,.National Association of County En.g
Guide Series, National Association of Counties, Research Foundation, 1972.
Trip Generation by Land Use, Part I: A Summary of Studies Conducted, Maricopa Assc
Governments, Arizona, 1974.
Institute of Traffic Engineers, Committee .5N7S,. "Guidelines for Driveway Design ar
Traffic Engineering, February 1973.
Herr Associates, "Performance, Zoning II," for Franklin County Planning Department
June 1972.
Institute of Transportation Engineers, Trip Generation ITE Information Report, 1S

1.4 Distribute Development Traffic on Nearby Streets
Traffic can't be distributed with any great precision. For each de-
velopment outcome (and egress point if they use different-streets) that is
being studied, it is usually easiest to take the site plan and a street map
of the surrounding area and think about where people are likely to be trav-
elling (where,residents go to work, where the developer's market study ex-
pects shoppers to come from,-where there.are major expressways).. Likely
routes and numberof trips can be plotted on the map,up to a certain dis-
tance, say a half mile. Not all routes need be thought out to the same dis-
tance; those with few trips don't need further consideration. Figure 271
shows how trips from a proposed development might be distributed.
We suggest first distributing trips on@each street as a percentage of
the total (e.g., 20% on North Street,130% on South Street, etc.). This as-
sures that trips will add up to the total number from the,,proposal. There
are lots of possible complications: one-way streets, added traffic flowing
against existing flows, etc. Again, approximations will do...

1.5 Identify Critical Locations
Usually, only a few intersections and stretches of roadneed further
study. These should be quickly identified:
a. Where average daily traffic will increase.-.stibstantially, say, by
more.than 25% above current levels. Predicted traffic for each development
outcome should be comparedwith current traffic oa.each street, either from
2
an available traffic count or a tough guess At traffic on that type of

'Note: Steps 2 and 3 may exaggerate how many new tri s there will be on
p
each street. It is assumed that all outcome traffic is a.net addition to
nearby streets. In fact, some of the cars stopping at a gas station or a@
s,tore would have been on the street anyway., We don't know a good way to
estimate (orsubtract out) such traffic. Assuming all.trips are new is
p,robably quite accurate for residences and industries; it is probably least
accurate'for small stores on maJor roads. While assuming all trips are new
may.slightly over-estimatecongestion problems, it does indicate safety
hazards (e.g., heavy.traffic to and from a driveway).
2
From the local department of public works, 'a recent TOPICS program in the
community, or the Mass. Department of Public Works'(which periodically pub-
lishes.",Traffic Volumes," which gives counts on major roads).'

J.IGURE 2-1
;AMPLE TRIP DISTRIBUTION FOR A RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

Development
Proposal

64 (8%)
Total: 8.00 (XOO%)
TRIPS PER DAY

peospwr
STRE&T

232 (29%
4,104 (13%j

L 696 (877.)

400 (50%)

street. Table 2-1 suggests the range of traffic for different kinds of
sireets.
b. Where traffic problems already exist. Even a light traffic in
cre ase can be serious where frequent backups or accidents already occur.
Local p@Aice keep accident records and sometimes have a map of them.

1.6 Estimate Percentage Increase.in Average Daily Traffic
Computethe percentage increase above current average daily traffic
(ADT) for each development outcome:

% Increase Offsite increase + development-traffic
100
in ADT Current ADT

2. PEAK HOUR ANALYSIS

Next, repeat the above steps for peak hour traffic. This information,.
together with street' capacity data, will be necessary for evaluating conges

tion impacts.

2.1 Select Peak Hour Location:(s) to be Analyzed
Identify places where congestion is likely to be worst, generally
where traffic will increase most substantially or where ba-ck-ups already
oc.cur.-If traffic will increase all along a road, congestion will usually
be worst at major intersections (where traffic movements.cross) or at ob-
structions (e.g. , wherethe road is. narrowest)

2.2 Select Hours to be Analyzed
Decide when congestion is likely to be worst, that is, the peak hour
each day." Tables 2-3 and 2-4 can help select the appropriate hour.to be
analyzed.. The peak hour is usually the evening rush hour (about 4:30-5:30
pm)-but.may be earlier or later if the proposal represents a large share of
traffic and has its highest traffic at another hour -(Table@,2-4)-
If traffic is much greater during a certain part of the year (e.g.,
atla ski area, summer resort, college town), the high-seas-on peak hour is
critical and should be analyzed.
NOTE: If the street has more.than one travel lane in each direction,
it would be best to estimate'traffic and go through the f6llowing steps
for each direction on the street.

TABLE 2-3
EVENING RU SH HOUR TRAFFIC

Approximate % of Approximate
Type of Land"Use
Average Daily Traffic % Outboiund,@.,

Residential 10 35
Commercial 10 50.
Coll'eges, hospitals .10 .65
Industrial 18 80
Office! 22 80

Source: Herr Associates estimates based on sources in Table 2-2.

TABLE 2-4
UNUSUALPEAK TRAFFIC TIMING

Highest Approximate
Land Ilse of Average
Hour %,,Outb-ourid
Daily Traffic.
Stadium, drive-in. theatre end of last 45 almobt'.100
show

Regional shopping center 7-8 pm 0-15 45

Major college or hospital usually 10-15 15
morning
rush hour

Industrial pliant Depends
on i.shi.,ft
schedule:

beginning 15-35 20
of shift

end'of shift 15-35 80

Source: Herr Associates estimates based on, sources in Table 2-2.; and.Louis
Keefer and David Witheford, Urban%TraVel Patterns for Airports
'Shopping Centers,..and Industrial,Elonts, Highway Research Boar@,
1966.

2.3 Estimate Current Peak Hour Traffic

Sources and methods are basically the same as for estimating average
daily traffic (Step 1.1). Several approaches are possible:
use an available peak hour traffic count;
count traffic during the peak hour; or
guess, estimating what share of daily traffic occurs during the
peak hour (Table 2-3; on most streets, evening rush hour traffic
is about 10% of daily traffic).

2.4 Estimate Peak Hour Increase Without Development
determine daily traffic from future nearby development and other
increases (Step 1.2).
estimate what share of that traffic will,'@.-occur during the peak
hour (Tables 2-3 and 2-4).
add this to current peak hour traffic.

2.5 Estimate Peak Hour Traffic From Development Outcomes
-Multiply traffic generation from each development Outcome (Step 1.3
or 1.4) by the percentage of trafficthat will occur during the peak hour
(Table a 2-.3 and 2-4).

2.6 Calculate the % Increase in Peak Hour Traffic
Compute the percentage increase above current peak hour traffic (PHT)
for each development outcome.

% Increase Offtite increase + development traffic @x 100
in PHT Current PHT

One can now evaluate specific impacts on safety, congestion, and the
quality of life on property along neighboring streets.

IDirection of traffic can also be easily estimated where necessary. For
example, an apartment complex might add 1,000 trips a day to a nearby
street. About 10%, or 100 trips, will occur during the evening rush hour.
Of these'100 trips, about 35% or 35 trips will be outbound from the . devel-
opment The rest, about 65 trips, will.be heading toward:the-de-@relopment.

3. SAFETY
Even if the road initially isn't especially hazardous, modest traffic
increases can greatly increase the danger of Accidents. Accidents will
force drivers and pedestrians to change-the way they use.the street: chil-
dren stop playing in the street, pedestrians cross only at corners, drivers
slow down,; stop signs, traffic signals ::and street lights may have to be
installed. Following are some :features to watch,out for.

Adequacy of Existing Roads
Where traffic will increase substanctially, watch out for the condition
and layout of the existing road. The road may be quite safe for current
volumes but too narrow, winding, hilly or poorly paved to safely handle
traffic fromt he proposed development. Few streets, for example, have
alignments which can handle a 30% traffic increase without becoming hazard-
ous. The following sources may suggest whether the road is adequate for
the extra traffic.

a. past accident records, from local police;
b. review,by the highway surveyor or superintendent, and local police;
c. where a state road is involved., :review by the area office ,of the
State Department of Public Works.

Entrances and Exits
Even if a proposal only increases street traffic slightly, one should
pay attention to the location and design;of its entrances exits.
Egresses often create hazards., some of which,can be easily modified by
changing the site plan.Key factors to look out for include:
A. Distance from other driveways and intersections. Where these
are very close, turning movements conflict and drivers weave :from one lane
to another. Problems may occur where the driveway is less than
250 feet from an intersecting street
250 feet from the driveway of a major :traffic generator across
the street1

1 Unless the other driveway is exactly opposite, simply creating a four-way
intersection.

500 feet irom the driveway of a major traffic generator on the

same side of the street.

b. Number of egresses. Designs which avoid continuous or frequent
driveways are likely to be safer than those,with such driveways.
c. Slight distances. How far can the driver see to the right and
left before he turns onto.the street? Table 2-5, shows sight distances
suggested by the National Association.of County Engineers.

TABLE 2- 5
SUGGESTED SIGHT DISTANCES FROk DRIVE@4AY

To Left To Right
Spped on Street
2-lane street 4- or -6--lane street
30, mph 350 feet 220 feet 260 ft.
40 530 380 440
50 740 620 700
60 950 950 1,050

Source: Hansen, Travel Generation.

n
..,,This suggests that egresses should ot benearhillcrests, around
curves, or near embankments. Less permanent features, such as trees,
shrubs, fences and parked vehicles can also block the driver's vision. In
s6me.cases it may.be appropriate for the developer to grant a sight ease-
ment to the community, assuring that underbrush will be kept cleared or

that a fence will be removed.

d.-I Left turn movements. Heavy left turn movements, to or from the
driveway can be especially dangerous.
e. Pedestrian flow. The driveway may croEs (and conflict with)
heavy pedestrian traffic along the street.

1Sight distances are measured 10 feet back from the curb; the d rivet's eye
is assumed to be 3.5 feet: above the ground, objects are assumed to be 4.5
feet above the ground. Distances should be.increased by 10% in rural areas
and greatly increased for trucks.

Figure 2.,-2: LEVEL OF SERVICE

.34

GNP

B E
". ff

/TOM

Fr Highway Research Board, Highway Cai2acity manual, 19.65.

37 -

TABLE 2-6
LEVELS OF SERVICE

-Level of
Description
Service

A little traffic, no delays or speed reduction due to trafficy"
relatively free.flow

B slight reduction in speed due to other cars on road

C satisfactory speeds, reasonably stable flow, speeds and man-
euverability.restricted by other cars, occasional minor delays

D occasional serious delays, little space for.maneuvering, some
cars may have to wait for signal to turn green twice before
going through an intersection

E unstable flow; continuous backups at many intersectionscreat
ing intolerable delays;,hard for traffic to enter from cross,
streets

very low speeds, cars backed up from'o'ne intersection to
another; j ammed

Source: Highway Research Board, Highway Capacity Manual, 1965.

4. CONGESTION

Development traffic can generate (or worsen) traffic jams onnearby
streets. Traffic engineers have complex methods for estimating congeEtion,
but's simpler approach can also suggest how congested streets wil 1 be.
Congestioh depends on the amount of traffic and the "capacity" of the,
road, or intersection. If traffic volumes are large compared to capacity,
major delays-will occur. Thus far this chapter has predicted how the'pro-
posal will increase peak hour traffic; one can now estimate the @.exte).t of
service deterioration that will result. The following steps are involved.

4.1 Judge the Current Peak Hour "Level of Service"
Table 2-6 and Figure, 2-2 describe levels of traffic service which.
result'fro.m the relationship of traffic demand and street capacity. leople
can usually'quic kly agree.on which level.best describes the current situa-
tion. The level can also be calculated,. but that, is complex and,, by. cur
observation', subjqct to a great deal of error even.when done by profeEsionals.
if you want.a numerical check, the following usually result in lEvel C

service:

350-500 vehicles per hour per travel lane at intersections
00 vehicles per hour each way on uninterrupted two-lane roadE
WO-1200 vehicles:pqr hour per lane on interrupted four-lane roads,,
Up to 1600 vehicles per hour per lane on some expressways

442 Estimate the Future Peak Hour Level of'. Service
If the. level of service is now at level B or lower, each 15% increase.
in peak hour volume. (Step 2.6, page, 33 will. result in approximately one
step.lower level of service. If service is now at level A,.Comparisor, with
the volume/service level relationships given in the paragraph above may

enable an estimate to be made.

The determination.of future, levels of service arebased on imprecise
estimates of trip generation by the development, off-site trip in, creases,
etc' kow can one be assured that.the determination of future service,
levels, based on these estimates, are not'in e@rror? One approach is.to use
conservative assumptions.. For example, if a drop in service of one level
is predicted using "worst. case" assumptions, one can,then.be assured t hat.
under all other (laxer)- conditions no more, than: a,, one step drop in level of

service can be expected. Another approach is to perform the calc ulations
twice,.once with low (but reasonable) assumptions and once more with high
(but reasonable) assumptions. This will generate a range in results from
.a range in assumptions, explicitly recognizing uncertainty,in the.estimates.-

4.3 Evaluation

Is service anticipated to be lower than level C? Is level E or F ex@-
pected? Deteriorating service can mean delays for drivers (or detours to
avoid.the congested street); air pollution from backed up cars; and a
greater need for street improvements such as wider pavements, signals, one-
..way loops and no-parking regulations.
Officials who normally deal with traffic and traffic improvements in
the community (e.g.,-selectmen, highway surveyor or superintendent, chief
of local department of public works, police chief and/or traffic safety
officer, representatives of the state D.P.W. area office) can help consider
or review the scope of improvements that might be needed. Note that.im-
provements and.similar measures not only have financial costs, butother
costs@as well: trees cut down, front yards. sliced off, retail sales re-
duced as parking and driving become more difficult, and greater public con

troverpy',..

Example
To illustrate, suppose a two-lane road serving residential traffic now
carries-6,000 vehicles per day. Peak hour traffic is estimated to be 10%
of that, or 6.00 vehicles (Step 2.3, page 33 A site is, being considered
for.rezoning from agricultural to single-family residential use. :Future.
development off this site but also served by the street is estimated to add
150 vehicles per hour to the current 600 (Step 2.4, page 33). If rezoning
is approved, the most probable outcome is that a 250-unit development served
only.by that street will be built, involving 250 units x 8.5.,trips/unit x
107. in peak hour, or the addition of 210 trips in the peak hour (Step 2.5,
page 33) bringing total peak hour traffic under this outcome to 960 vehi-
cles. If-rezoning is not approved, it appears most likely that the site
will 'remain undeveloped for some time to come, adding no new traffic under
that outcome. This means a 60% increase in peakhour traffic.under the

first outcome (250-unit housing development) (150 +,210,'-.* 600) and a 25%
increase uader the second outcome (no new development on agricultural site)
(150 600). (See Step 2.6, page 33
Current level of2gervice is judged to be leveLB, based on residents'
consensus (Step 4.1, page 38 The 25Z. increase in peak hour' traffic will
lower:the level of service by 1+ steps (25% L. 15%) to level C or possibly
tc- level Dc The 60% increase in peak hour traffic will lower the level of
sErvica 4 steps (60% -t 15%) or to level F (Step@ 4.2, page 38
Actually, level F might not occur. Street capacity improvements might
b@ made, or congestion might divert traffic onto other streets, or'the traf-
fic would;be so bad, not all of the planned 250 dwellings.,would be built
and occupied, or public transport might be provided.

QUALITY, OF LI FE
Substahtial traffic increases can affect the quality@of 14.fe on.pro-
perty-along nearby streets, even if there are no.major safety 5 c con ges tion
problems. More cars mean more air pollution,- noise, vibrations and.traffic
dang6rs,' in some cases', the street may.have-to be widened or straightened.
All these: changes -can. make -a residential: street a much 'less pleasant .place-
to live on. Pedestrian use of sidewalks-may decrease. Front lawns and
porches may become less peacefuland comfortable. Children-may., no-longer
be able toplay near.-the street.. Noise may disrupt family conversations.
The,street may no longer serve as a focus of neighborhood life.
Noise.and vibration levels can [email protected] related to traffic
flow and to-human discomfort and annoyance (Figure 2-3).1 Stop-and-go..
traffic flows and a high incidence of,truck traffic are. special-problems.

REQUIRING ANALYSIS FOR SPECIAL PERMITS
Professional analysis is appropriate for proposals likely to have
large or unclear impacts. In many cases, the developer of a major traf fic
generator can be required to,submit a traffic analysis-as part-of a special
perm it application. 1 The community can, require such an analysis in the
f ollowing way.

'Developers sometimes need such studies anyway, in order to design the final
site plan for. large- @dev@ld_'Jpmen*:ts andi'ot_ to apply to the State Dept. of
Public Works for acurb cut on a state road.

FI(;URE 2-3
LOUDNESS. RANGE OF COMMON TRAFFIC SOUNDS
(Measured at Source or Indicated Distance)

Sound Source dBA Response Criteria

120.
Auto horn (feet) Maximum vocal effort

110

100
Very annoying

Heavy truck. (50 feet) 90 Hearing damage (.8 hours)

80 Annoying

Freeway traffic.(50 feet) 70 Telephone use difficult

Intrusive

.60
Light auto traffic (50 feet)

50 Quiet
Living room

Bedroom 40

.,soft whisper (15 feet) 30 Very quiet

Source: Adapted from Dale Keyes,.Land Development and the Natural Envir*on-
ment, Washington, D.C.,: Urban Institute, 1976, p. 107.

Only Allow Maj or Traf f ic Generators on Special-Permit
tabld''2-7. suggests land uses likely to generate more,@:than .250, 500,
and 1,000 trips per-day. The lower number may be an appropriate threshold
for1requiring special permits in small rural*commun,ities; the higher num--
ber may be appropriate in large communities.

Listing Tra fic Criteria for Special Permit Approval
:Possible@criteria are that major traffic generators should:_
2
a. Provide at least 400 feet visibility in each travel, direction at
egress points;
b. 'Not have any street egress with-in 250 feet of either an.lintersect-
3
ing street or an egress from a parking area serving 30 or more vehicles;
c,.., Not result 'in traffic above the'., level C service capacity of roads,
and intersections at any point within a half mile,'using definitions and
methods of estimation as outlined in the.Highway Capacity Manual,1965 or
later editions;

d. Not increase average daily traffic by more than,25% above therV-
current levels on any street within a half mile;,
e. Not-increase-average daily truck traffic by more than 25%'above
current levels,-,on any street within a half mile;
f.@ Provide access to an arterial or collector street via ways.serv-
ing not more than 10 single-family homes'.

.Require Submission of Professional Imal is
ysis
Analysis by a qualified traffic engineer can be required, including:
a. Calculationslat critical locations to show compliance,with the

criteria.
b. A narrative statement,describing,@my traffic safety problems that

may result.
c. A narrative statement suggesting actions by',the developer or the
community that would be needed to provide,-compliance with tha criterii,.
lThese criteria are illustrative and.should be adjusted for any particular
community.
2 See P age 35 f or-more detailed stan dards.
3 See Page 3 .5: for morIe, .deta.iled standards.

W M'M@m M M-. No 'Ift INN.

TABLE 2-7
MAJOR TRAFFIC GENERATORS

likely to have more than:
Land Use 250 trips 500 trips
@per day per day P

Residential
Single-family homes 30+ du 60+ du
Multi-family 40+ du, 75+ du
Mobile homes 404- du 80+ du

Commercial
'Shopping center Any Any Ai
Supermarket Any Any Ai
Carwash, gas station Any. Some
Drive-in bank Any Any Ai
Other stores 5,000+ gsf 10,000+ gsf 2
Fast food restaurant Any Any Ai
3,000 gsf 6
Other restaurants 1,500 gsf
Hotel, motel with convention facilities Any 50+.rooms 1
Other motel 45+ rooms 90+ rooms 1

Industrial
Industrial (in general) 4+ acres 8+ acres 1
Manufacturinga, 100+ employees 200+ employees 4
Industrial park Any Any Ai
'Warehouse 50+ employees 100+ employees @2
8
-Truck terminal Any gsf

Office
Of fice building 25,000+ gsf. 50,000+ gsf 1
:-,@Medidal office building Any gsf 2

Institutional
General hospital Any Any 7
Long-term care hospital 704- beds 140-F beds 2
College Any 210+ students 4
Airport -Any 140+ acres 2

TABLE 2-7 (continued)

likely to have more than*
Land Use -250 trips .500 trips 1,
per day Per day j2e

Recreation
Stadium .250-F seats 500+ seats 1:9
Di-ive-in theatre Any 250t spaces 50
Golf cours.e Any, -90+ acres 18
Mrina 60+.berths berths .215
Ski area, skating*rink, beach, Any Some -So
movie theatre

gross square feet of building floor area
du dwelling, unit
aAlso research and development.

Sources: Based on Table 2@2,.-data__ Format based- on Martha's Vineyard, Commission, "Table 6
Traffic G6neiators,," October 1975'.'

PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS FOR OTHER PROPOSALS
In some cases, a major traffic generator willbe proposed but-the
community does not or cannot require a special permit. In such cases
(e.g., a rezoning, a proposed public.facility, etc.), public officials
might want to roughly estimate possible impacts to see whether a profes-
sional analysis is needed. If,they decide one is needed, the community
could provide the analysis itself (staff or outside.assist.and e) or, request
that those making the proposal provide a traffic analysis. Such analysis
might be similar to that described for a-special permit@'

CHAPTER 3

PUBLIC FACILITY IMPACTS

This chapter considers the impacts of development on major public faci-
lities, impacts that could, for example, result in the need for a new school
or wellfied. Street improvements are discussed separately in this guide-
book in the Traffic Impacts chapter. Normal agency operations (personnel,
assignments) are included in the Fiscal Impacts chapter in the way that they
are reflected in the tax rate.

New development normally increases pressure on public facilities. The
development may substantially increase water use, sewage flows, storm water
runoff, or number of school children. Where the new demand passes or brings
nearer a "break point," major capital improvements may be required. Some-
times, expanding demand is not responded to by expanding facilities, but in
that case, too, a price is paid: more crowded facilities, less efficiant oper-
ations, reduced services, perhaps higher insurance rates (e.g., fire insurance).

New development can also have positive impacts on the community. For ex-
ample, higher densities may make new services and conveniences such as public
trash collection or public sewerage feasible for the first time. A first-rate
public library with convenient hours may finally be justified. Sometimes, a
developer extends services and amenties beyond his development to previously
unserviced areas.

Following are common questions about new development:

1. Will the development require (immediately or eventually) a type of
public service not now provided in the area (such as public water, public
sewerage)? Might it make desired services feasible for the first time?

2. Will development overload capacity of existing facilities, or make
it hard to accommodate other expected growth? If new services are extended
by a developer, will other expected growth be more easily accommodated?

3. Will major capital improvements be needed, such as additions, ex-
tensions, new facilities?

4. Some of the improvements may be needed or already planned regard-
less of the development. Will the proposal accelerate their timing or in-
crease their scale (and cost)?

4 7

5. Are therelikely to be serious time lags before the,proposed devel-
opment can be adequately serviced? This may suggest.phasing the development.
6. Are there likely to be problems borrowing for the improvements?
Large-scale borrowing may be difficult or impossible.for 6mall communities

@'or service' districts.
7. Will there be long term fiscal effects? The development's share of
debt service costs can be es-timated. If the facility is provided by the-,
municipal government, debt service can be compared with revenues. (and other
costs) from the development (see '.Fiscal Impacts," page'63

As with other impacts,. the probable outcomes of both approving and re-
jecting a proposal should be.made explicit. The consequences of these out
-comes for facilities should then be predicted and compared. Net differences
may sometimes be slight,.perhaps depending only upon which@yeAr the improve-
ments will be needed.

Experts
Analysis'of facility.impacts must depend upon a variety of experts. It
@is important to understand that facility "need" ismot often.Objectively de-
@terminable, and that the expert's role naturally colors his perception of
need. Beware: treatexpert input with some ske'ticism. Some commonrole,
p

influences:
The elected or senior appointed facility m6naker: he will often, minimize
limitations of facilities he is responsible for, since doing,otherwise re-
flects on the job he has beendoing. Exception: the newmanager of '.'inheri-
ted" facilities, which he'll often find grossly' inadequate..
The.professional facility designer:, eagineers and architects generally,.
use, very.conservative assumptions whenevaluating facilities,.* This reflects
both.a, general concern not to under-design facilities and also the general.
orientation (and self-interest) of the profession toward building...newer, big
ge r and better facilities. -If the professional designer finds a facility
adequate, it probably really is.@ If he finds.facilities inadequate,and in
need of.expansion or replacement, it is often valuable to review hi
s assump-

tions.

@The national organizations: librarians, policem en.,.firemen,,recrea-.
tionists,,,.,,and others all.have their state, regional, or.,national,standard-

setting organizations. The dynamics of these organizations is clear. their
11standards" are seldom "norms.,T1 really being "goals. That's fine if under-
stood..

SCHOOL FACILITIES b
To estimate impact onneed.for school facilities, the follox4ing step.
are required:
a. Define the possible development out-comes resulting from alternative
land use decisions (approving or-rejecting a rezoning, forexample). For
each outcome that-seems sufficiently likely to warrant study, 6-stimate enroll-
ment from development for selected future years, by grade grouping: elemen-
tary, junior high,.senior high. In the, Fiscal Impacts chapter, we outline,@
imat n ulting from development,(page 71
how to est e total school enrollme t res
Allocating estimated enrollment,among grade groupings is even more uncertainty-,
prone than the basic estimate. We do not find national or.other non-local
studies
useful. for this, but instead suggest allocating students to grade.
levels based on local experience. For exam)le, suppose.that, a-developiv-_@nt is
estimated.to add 400 children to the schools when fully developed.' If,60% of
all current local enrollments are in grades K-6, a reasonable first approxi-
mation,is that 60% o,k these .40O.children will also be in grades K-6, or, 240
children in those grades. Enrollment impact should be estimated for selected
years based on the phasing schedule of development (see page 49 Thatotal
enrollment:figure will.only be reachedwhen development is,fully qccupJ@ed.
b. Allocate thoseenrollments to-existing or.committed future fa..ili-
ties, based on school district lines. For example, the proposed project
might be served by two school districts. -Half of the students, or 120,
might be allocated to each.
c.1 Estimate fuiureenrollments in the affected schools expected from
all areas outside the site whose rezoning @(or,other land use change)-ts being
considered. The.school department may already have made a detailed projec-
tion. The Bureau of Research and Assessment, Massachusetts Department of
Education, has made projections by grade groupings for each school system
in the state. Upon. request, they will project enrollments by district

Department of Education, Bureau of Research and Assessment, '"Enrollment
r Public Schools in Mass achusett s, 19 751- 19 79 October 1975.
Projections fo

within the school system; simply provide them with district enrollments by
grade for the last ten years.
d. For each development outcome defined in (a), add enrollment from
potential development to that expected anyway from outside.the site. Example:
Assume a community can either approve or reject a site rezoning from single-
kfamily to multi-family residential use. Also assume that each decision will
result in one probable outcome. If rezoning is approved, multi-family de-
velopment of predictable scale will indeed occur on the site, as well as
normally. expected growth off-site. If rezoning is rejected, single-family
development of a predictable scale will result on-site. Off the site, growth
will also occur asin the first case. But it will occur at a sltghtly greater

in
@in,-ensity because the demand for new multi-family housl g, frustrated on-site,
will likely be accommodated elsewhere off-site in addition to the.normally
expected growth. Projected district enrollments for a selected-grade group-
ing can be tabulated as follows:

Outcome 1: Multi-family development occurs after rezoning'isapproved.
Outcome. 2:.. Single-family developin
ent occurs afterrezoning; is rejected.
Year. Projected Enrollment Projected Enrollment From
Total
From Outside the Site On-site Development

Outcome 1 Outcome 2 Outcome I Outcome 2 Outcome 1 Outcome 2'

1077 640 650 30 20 6M 670
1978 650 660 60 30 710 690
1979' 640 650 90 .50. 7jO 700
1980 630 650 120 70 750
@1985 580 600 120 701 700' 670
@580 600 120 70 700 670

e. Compare totals and evaluate the results. Do the.totals ever ex-
ceed current levels? Given falling birth rates, they mightonot. Do they
ever exceed the School.Department's suggested capacity for.the school? If
so,.by how much, and for how long? If overcapacity results, can it be.re-
solved by.,redistricting, or will more heroic efforts be required, suchas
double. sessions, or a new building or building addition?,

RECREATION FACILITIES

in assessing consequences of residential development on recreation
facilities, the following should be considered*
a., Determine what facilities the development itself is going to PTO@
vide. Many, especially clustered developments, internally provide facilities
completely satisfying some recreational demands, such as for tennis.
b. Ask whether those who operate local recreation programs consider
that recreation programsare now constrained by lack of adequate facilities
.r than, say, lack of staff or other problems).
(rathe
C. Assess whether it is likely that the added recreational demands
will be satisfied incidental to satisfying school needs. The site standards
of the School Building: Assistance Bureau result in.adding one a:cre per@100
added pupils. We'll-managed, this space may-be all the recreation space:that
a community need add as it grows.
d. C@heck quantitatively. Standardskeep rising,but aboutfive nearby
acres of.recreation space per 1,000 residents is reasonable for communities,
1
with less-than 50,00Vpopulation. This means that each added-100 residents
may create a needl,f6r another half-acre of.recreation space. [email protected]
perhaps more reliable r ule is that adding recreation space in direct propor-
tion to population growth would probably, in most cases, more than keep pace

with added demand:,

Added space Population in proposed development Recreation acres
Justified Current population of community now in use

e. Assess impact on.special facilities or programs. Impact can be
good or bad. Swimming might be-made overcrowded, or it might be made justi@.
.fiable for the first-time. It is difficult to generalize from town to t own
about the demand for specific facilities. Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor
Recreation Plans (SCORPS) provide capacity standards for different kinds of
'facilities which may be of local use. They also identify facilities needed
2
to meet excess demand, but at a regional level of detail.

National Recreation and Park Association, "Outdoor Recreation Space St4n-
dards," New York, 1.965.
Department of Environmental b@a4agement,
@fassachusettp.Outdoors: Statewide
Cpmprehensive..Outdoor. Recreation Plan," 1976.

WATER

Following are some key impacts to watch out for,:
a. Need for a Public Water System. If there is nowno public water
System in the area, will the development accelerate the time when one is
needed? Population growth makes public water supply more likely. This may
mean creation of a new water district or expansion of an existing.district.
Table 3-1 shows expectations of public water systems for residential areas.

.TABLE 3--@l
LIKELIHOOD OF PUBLIC WATER SYSTEM

@Population Density Equivalent Likelihood of Eventual
(Persons/Sq.Mile) Lot Sizea Public Water Sy;tem
over 2,500 less than 1 acre. nearly-, certain
1,000-2,500 1-2 acres eventually. in most cases
2-.4 acres unlikely
less than 500 over 4 acres virtually never

a
if f ully developed
:Source: U.. S 1. Dept. of H.E.W., Public Health Service, Environmental Health
Planning Guide, 1962.

b. Pollution. Would proposed development pollute water supplies by
p
changing drainage patterns, increasing runoff and sedimentation,.discharging
wastes,'or.placing a sewage disposal system neariwellfields or surface water
bodies? The result may be lower water quality, requiring some form of treat-
ment or,, conceivably, need for another water supply.
Statewide standards govern thedistance of water supplies from pollution
sources. In Massachusetts, no well may be located within half a mile of po-
tentially serious pollution sources such as sanitary landfills, major fuel
storage,and/or transmission facilities, road salt stockpile, areas, hazardous
substances storage areas, etc. , without special approval. A minimum area
around the well must also be acquired by the water supplier,.and.set aside and
controlled to protect.the water from.contamination. For example, a circle of
@400-foot radius must be controlled around a gravel,packed well..

'Massachusetts Department of Environmental Quality Engineering, "Guidelines
for the Establishment of New Sources of Groundwater for Codmmuniity Water
Systems," April 1975, and "Drinking [email protected] of.Massachusetts,"
June 1977.

Standards such as these are general minimum standards and may not be
adequate in every situation. Critical distances within which pollutants
will drain toward groundwater supplies are a function of the region's ground-
water recharge rate and the well's pumping rate. It has been estimated that
a recharge rate of 16 inches per year (applicable to much of Cape Cod, for
example) and a well pumping rate of a million gallons per day will yield a
circle of 3400 feet radius around a well that may be impacted by sources of
pollution.1 Professinals can estimate critical distances and help check
the adequacy of standards in individual cases.

c. Effect on Water Level. If the development has its own wells, will
it reduce water table levels in surrounding areas, possibly affecting public
wellfields? Pond levels may also be reduced with impacts on recreation fa-
cilities, as well as on ecology and aesthetics. Impact many sometimes be
lessoned by employing several small dispersed wells rather than one large one.
The developer's engineer can be asked to document potential impacts on water
levels.

d. Need for Public Improvements. If the development will use the
public system, will it require major improvements in that system? Improve-
ments might include:
1) New water mains. Existing mains may have to be extended a con-
siderable distance to the site. Nearby mains may have to be replaced by
larger ones or supplemented in order to provide adequate pressure for fire
fighting. Check with water officials and the fire chief. (A major apart-
ment complex, for example, might need 12" mains rather than a present 6"
or 8" mains in the area.) Arrangements often provide for the developer to
pay part or all of the cost for the new mains.

2) Additional storage capacity. Larger storage facilities may be
needed to provide adequate reserves for peak demand plus fire fighting.
Standpipes and water tanks may have to be built or expanded; insurance rates
go up if underwriters believe reserves are inadequate. Concern may be
greatest for very large new developments (such as an industrial park) which

1 Arthur N. Strahler, "The Environmental Impact of Groundwater Use on Cape
Cod, "Association for the Preservation of Cape Cod, Orleans, Mass., 1972.

in crease needed fire flows in the community.
3) Additional supplies. Extra demand from the development may ex-
ceed the capacity of existing water supplies. This can sometimes be readily
'dealt with by increasing pumping capacity or tapping another known ground-
water or surface water source. If these solutions aren't available, conse-
quences may be much more serious. Search for a new source may prove fruit-
less., Water may have to be purchased from elsewhere (e.g., from another dis-
trict in the community, a nearby city or town, the Me tropolitan District Com-
mission). It often takes years to find and develop a new source or to work
out arrangements with another district; water shortages may occur. in the
meantime. By contrast, new mains, standpipes, pumps are costly but rela@-
tively straightforward improvements.
Where impacts may be significant,the proposal;should be carefully re-,
viewed by the Water Commissioners (or department) and/or by outside engineers
(provided by the developer or the.connunity)'. Following is,a,quick general
approach for considering how thewater.use of the proposal might affect public,
water supplies.

1. Review Existink Conditions and.Plans
Water system records, personnel, and engineering studies may,indicate:
water use on the average and maximum days during the year(maximum,
rather than average, demand is sometimes the more important design criterion);
supply capacity: how many gallons can be pumped on a. single day;
how current use compares with capacity; proposal impact will natur-
ally be much.more critical if the system is already closeto capacity;
--.problems that have already been identified;
improvements that are already pl anned or underway-

2. Estimate Water Use for the-Propo ed Development
How,many gallons would be needed on the maximum day?
a. Residential development. Residential water serves two main pur-
poses: household use and sprinkling.. Household consumption often averages

1See Insurance Services Of f ice, "Guide for Determination of Required Fire,
Flow," New York, 1974.

about 250 gallons per dwelling per day.1 Sprinkling varies widely, depend-
ing on the size of the lawn. In an apartment complex only 100 gallons per
dwelling unit might go to sprinkling. In a 1-acre or 2-acre area, sprinkl-
ing might reach 1,000 or 2,000 gallons per dwelling unit on the maximum
day2. Implication:

1) One can roughly estimate wate use per dwelling. If proposed densi-
ties aren't very different from existing densities in the community, look at
current water records for the system:

Max. Day Use per Total Residential Use on Maximum Day
Dwelling Unit # of Residential Connections

Be careful to cound only residential uses; don't count stores and factories.3
For a rough estimate, maximum day use is often about 400-800 gallons per
dwelling (toward the low end of the range for apartments, toward the high
end for single-family homes).4

2) Increasing residential density does not always increase maximum
day water use. This is the surprising finding of a nationwide study.5
Water use per acre may not change very much whether there are, say, one unit
or five units per acre, since total lawn area remains about the same. It
may therefore sometimes be useful to estimate water use per acre (total cur-
rent residential use divided by residential acres).

At still higher densities (especially more than 10 units per acre),
maximum day water use clearly does increase with increasing density. House-
hold consumption for each extra unit is greater than reduced sprinkling from
reduced lawn area.

1 F.P Linaweaver, John Geyer and Jerome Wolff, "A study of Residential Water
Use," for Federal Housing Administration, 1967.
2 Source: Richard Bond and Conrad Straub (eds.), CRC Handbook of Environmental
Control, Vol II, Water Supply and Treatment, 1972.
3 Some per capita figures are based on all water use divided by population.
The result can be misleading if there are large commercial or industrial
users in the commmunity.
4 Assumes maximum day is about double the average day, about 2.5-4.0 persons
per dwelling, and 60-100 gallons per capita on an average day. See: estimates
of Mass. Dept. of Public Health; Real Estate Research Corporation, The Costs
of Sprawl, for the U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, 1974; Linaweaver,
Residential Water Use; Wallace, Floyd, Ellenzweig, Moore, Inc., Massachusetts
5 Linaweaver, op.cit.

b. Non-Residential Development. Water use varies enormously by type
of development, depending on needs for employees, visitors, and industrial
processes. Examples (for illustrative purposes; some data is quite old):

Rough estimate, gallons
Land Use per day per employee1

office 15
shopping center 30
printing 300
chemicals manufacturing 2,000
paper manufacturing 6,000

Even for the same type of development, water use may vary widely among in-
dividual establishments. Restaurants, for example, may generally average
35 gallons per seat per day, but counter seats in a turnpike rest area might
generate 10 times as much.2

Each non-residential development should therefore be reviewed in terms
of its particular characteristics. The developer may be asked to provide an
estimate of daily water use. One can also look at similar establishments
elsewhere.

3. Compate the Development to Current Water Use and Capacity

Does the development substantially increase water use in the district?
Will existing supplies be adequate to meet the extra demand? Even if the
development won't exceed existing capacity, it may still cause problems:
making it hard to deal with major fires and to accommodate other expected
development and rising demand from present users (perhaps increasing about
1% per year,3 but each community must examine its own recent water use
trends which may have significantly changed as a result of metering, per-
ception of shortage, etc.).

1 Total water consumption for all purposes divided by number of employees;
Bond and Straub; Metcalf and Eddy, Inc. Wastewater Engineering: Collection,
Treatment, Disposal; Wallace, Floyd, Ellenzweig, Moore, Inc., Massachusetts
Water Supply Policy Study, prepared for Massachusetts ROEA, Boston, 1977;
Herr Associates estimates for shopping centers based on water records for
Burlington Mall, South Shore and North Shore Shopping Plazas.

2 Metcalf and Eddy, Wastewater Engineering.

3 New England River Basine Commission, HOw to Guide Growth in Southeastern
New England, May 1975.

4. Consider What Improvements May Be Needed
Ask those in charge of the water system. Issues can include timing,
cost, and complexity of arrangementes. Consideration might also be given to
water conservation actions, either short-term in the form of emergency use
restrictions, or long-term actions such as public education and encourage-
ment (perhaps by code reform) of new water savings plumbing fixtures.

SEWERAGE

Concerns vary, depending on whether the development will provide its
own sewage disposal or be served by a public system.

Private Disposal

What degree of assurance is there that the system will prove adequate
not only initially, but in the long run? Initial adequacy can be assured by
capable administration of the State Environmental Code and Board of Health
regulations. Long-term adequacy is far more complex, since initially ade-
quate systems often, in time, prove troublesome, leading to eventual provi-
sion of public sewerage. Long term maintenance demands of individual septic
tanks and consumer conveniences are not the only issues. Of prime concern are
the water quality implications, since even a perfectly functioning on-site
system may be effective in removing such pollutions as nitrates and phos-
phates.

Expectations for residential development are as follows:

TABLE 3-2
LIKELIHOOD OF PUBLIC SEWERAGE

Population Density Equivalent Likelihood of Eventual
(Persons/Sq. Mile Lot Size Public Sewerage

Over 5,000 Under 1/2 acre Nearly certain eventually
2,500-5,000 1/2 to 1 acre Eventually in most cases
1,000-2,500 1 to 2 acres Unlikely
Less than 1,000 Over 2 acres Virtually none

Source: U.S. Dept of H.E.W., Public Health Service, Environmental Health
Planning Guide, 1962.

Poor soils, steep topography, high water table, or proximity to critical
waterbodies increase likelihood of eventual sewerage; good soils, flat land,
and deep water table reduce likelihood. There ar e lots of exceptions. A
recent soil survey by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service@can provide valu--
able information.

The Planners Handbook contains a table relating soils, lot size, and
other site considerations to adequacy of private disposal. 1 -If the proposed
development violates the standards of.that table, skepticism about long7term
adequacy is well-justified, percolation tests notwithstanding.

Municipal System
If the development is likely.to be served by the municipalsewerage sys-
tem, several questions follow:
a., Js there adequate trunkline capacity to serve the, development. The
question should be answered by a technician, but, if problem,sial,ready.exist,,
or if the development is only atiny fraction of the current total1load
served by the line in question, the answer may be obvious, one way or the
other. Ask those in charge,of the sewerage system.
b. Is there adequate treatment plant capacity to serve the development?
Again the question requires technical response, but again the answermay be
obvious. Ask those in charge.
Sometimes capacity inadequacy can be remedied by relatively inexpensive
actions such as blocking stormwater infiltration to reduce peak f lows. On
the other hand, sometimes a relatively small increment in sewage flows is the
last straw, precipitating major system additions. Again, lay judgment is dif_@
ficult. :Major system additions may also induce still more development; these
se'zondary impacts should not.be overlooked.
c. If development is non-residential, will the character ofits waste.
di3charge be compatible with the existing municipal system? If pretreatment
is. appropriate, will it be assured?

Massachusetts Federation of Planning Boards, Planners Handbook, Braintree,
Ma ss., Revised 1975.

@_;TORM DRAINAGE

Development replaces soft absorbent surfaces with hard impervious ones,
and often replaces slow over-ground runoff routes withrapidly-flowing piped
underground ones.. The result is that storm water gets to the@b6ttom of,hills
or into streams faster, increasing peak flows (and often reducing Off7peak
flows since less-water is held back to flow later). The public facility im-
pact is that. storm drainage facilities such as storm sewers or culverts down-,,
stream. of adevelopment may prove il:Ladequate and requii,.-e expensive replacement.
M6 dern design, management, and regulation can virtually eliminate the
problem. In.many locations, it is Yeasible to insist tipon development design
to avoid peak flow increases through use of recharge, roof storage, parking
1
area storage, and grassed ponding areas.
Further, initial design of downstream facilities. i.,an be based upon-the
estimated flows, given 'full development uphill, rather than assuming uphill
areas will remain undeveloped.
If regulations and earlier design practices didn't follow this approach,
development is likely to add to peak runoff. The comp4tations.fox runoffare
complex and may includesuch factors as land use, amountland distributi.on of
inq)erviou.- surfaces,.amount of area served by storm, sewerage,'spil,type, slope
and vegetation. To get a "ballpark" sense@, the following "runoff multipliers"
might be considered.
Developed for single-family lots, runoff 2 times undeveloped runoff
rate,,
Developed for multi-family units, runoff 3 times undeveloped@runoff
rate
Developed for business, runoff 4-times undeveloped runoff rate.
The impact on the total drainage catchment area involved can be crudely

estimated as:

Area,of 2roposed development x runoff multiplier x 100 % increase in.runoff
Area of total drainage catchment.area

Fo.r example, 100 acres of undeveloped land are proposed for multi-family use.
It is. part of a 1,500-acre drainage basin served by a critical road culvert.

U rb an Land Institute@ Americap.-Society- of- Civil -Engineers-,' and: National
Association of Home Builders, Residential Storm Water Management, 1975..

100 acres x 3 x 100 20% increase in runoff
1,500 acres

if the increase looks critical, have it analyzed by a professional.
There is much more than shown here: the increase in peak flow may be either
a great deal more or a great deal less than 20%. 1
Regulation might also address runoff water quality. Runoff from major
roads cart contain.salt.and petroleum products.

SOLID WASTE
Two "break points" are involved in solid waste: the point at which
pickups begin, and the point at which the disposal,facil.ity is overtaxed,
(incinerator) or exhausted (landfill).

Collection

Justification for collection service in relation to density is shown,
in [email protected].

TABLE
JUSTIFICATION FOR SOLID WASTE COLLECTION

Population Density Equivalent Economic Justification
(PersonB/Sq. Mile) Lot Size for Collection Service
Over 2,500 less than I acre Service justified
1,000-2 500 1 to 2 acres Service normally justified
560-1,00'0 2 to 4 acres Service seldom. j ustif i6d
Under 500 over 4 acres Service rarely,justified

Source:.M. Public Health Service, Environmental Health Planning Guide.

By calculating the difference in density which a proposed development
makes, one can estimate the degree to which it accelerates,,the time when
collection service may.be required.

To get 4.sense of impact magnitudes, conversion of a small river basin from
rural@to 20% impervious and 20% sewered might increase by 50% the basin's-
average annual flood; this would result in a doubling of the*number of over-
bank flows. See U.S. Environmental-Protection Agency, Office,of Research and
Monitoring, Stream Quality Preservation through Planned Urban Development,
Washington, D.C., 1973.

Dis2Osal
Nationwide, the rate of solid waste generation had beenrising foc many
years until.s.tabilizing inthe past few years at about 0.6 tons
dent per year., For businesses, the following is an approximation.

TABLE 3-4
SOLID WASTE GE14ERATED BY BUSINESSES

Tons Oeremployee per year

Offices 0.4
Textile, apparel, manufacturing 0.7,
Transportation, communication, utilities 1
Metal, nuichinery manufacturing 1
Printing, publishing 4
Chemical, plastic manufacturing 7
Paper manufacturing 9,
Food processing 110
Wood products, furniture 15

Source: Adapted from Raytheon Service Co., Solid Waste Mangement Study'
Re2ort, forMass. Dept. of Public Works, 1972.1

'The remaining capacity per day for a local incinerator or total remain-
ing capacity for a landfill can normally be estimated by the operating
agency. Using these multipliers, one can estimate the extent to which A
proposed de-4,el opment' will draw on that capacity.

OTHER COMMUNITY FACILITIES

As communities grow, pressure on a broad range of community facilities
grows. First, more people simply means more people having business at town
offices, borrowing books at the library, and having homes needing fire pro-
tection. Second, service-level expectations are higher for larger communi-
ties.*'Inconveniences or lack o f amenities accepted in a rural community
cease to be acceptable as the community grows. Third, better facilities
generate greater usage. A small municipal library may initially attract
few users. But if the facilities are improved, per capita.usage may grow
enormously.
Often the.change.is subtle and gradual, as when the same town office
building which served a town of 6,000 continues to serve it at 15,000, but
does so by virtue of a series of displacements orver time: moving the town
meeting to the school auditorium, police to"a separate police station,

public works to a separate building, and the welfare department to an adj &

cent town.

Development demand for several types of facilities are discussed below.

Libraries

The American Library Association suggests a library floor space standard
of. about 0.7 square feet per capita for communities under 50 000 residents. 1
We find few communities which meet that standard, but it probably is a fair
measure of growing demand. Thus, a development bringing 1,0.00 new residents
brings demand for about 76.6 square feet of library space.

Municipal Office Space
By.observation, we judge that demand for floor space,for town offices
and police headquarters also.grows by about'three-quarters,square foot pLe r
capita.

Fire.@Protection Facilities
Demand-for fire protection'facilities in communities.of,undet 50,060
largely-depends an the pattern of development. Insurance rates,depend, among.
other things, upon proximity to fire stations. A usual standard for proxi-
mity is:,,

TABLE,3-5
PROXIMITY OF FIRE STATIONS

Engine, Hose or
I Ladder CO.
Engine-Ladd6r Co.,

Commerce, Industry
Dense 3/4 mile 1 mile
Other' 1-1/2 miles 2 miles

Residential
Multi-family 1-1/2 mi,16s 2 miles
.,Lots smaller than 1 acre 2 miles 3 miles
Lots.larger than I acre 4 miles 4 miles

Source: Adap' ted from American Insurance Associat ion (National'Board of Fire
Underwriters), "Fire Department Standards:..Disttibution of Companies
and Response to Alarms," Special Interest Bulletin@No. 315, Jan. 1963.

American Library Association, Public Library Association, "Interim Stan-
dards for Small Public Libraries: Guidelines Toward Achieving Goals.of
Public Library Service," Chicago, 1962.

Buildings with dimensions, either horizontal or vertical, much greater
than others in the community can precipitate demand for fire fighting equip-
ment not otherwise available or required. The equipment, in turn, can re-
quire types of garage space not now available. Check with the fire chief:
this could be an expensive and unanticipated impact.

SUMMARY CHECKLIST

The following chart organizes the public facility impacts discussed in
1
this chapter. If more than one facility within a single catego,:.-y is im-
pacted, the impact data should be reported separately for each. 'If. new de-
velopment will be phased, capacities should also be reported by phase.

Type of-F-ac-i-fity-7i-f--No-n-e-x-Tata-nt If Exists

'Will'new facilities be Percent of Capacity Used If Overload,
demanded or male feasible Earliest Time of,
for the first time? Outcome 1 Outcome 2 10ther Relief (in months)

1. School facilities
- 'elemr ntary
- junicr high
- senir-r high

2. Recreation
- pools
- parks

3. Water
- water mains
- storage
- supplies
- pollution impacts N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

4. Sewerage
trunklines
treatment plant

5. Storm drainage.
- sewers
- culverts

6. Solid waste
collection
disposal

7.. Libraries

8.. Municipal office
- police
- government

9. Fire protection
facilities

Adapted from Schaenman and Muller, Measuring Impacts of Land Development,
Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute, 1974, p., 36.

CHAPTER 4

FISCAL IMPACTS

Introduction

Fiscal effects of development are often a major concern. How will a
proposal affect the local tax rate: will taxes from a development pay for
the added police, fire, school and other Bervices'@ Where a development re-
quires major public improvements, another question may also be important:
what will be the effect on the community's debt and its ability to borrow
money for other needed improve ments? This chapter suggests methods.for
answering these questions.
It should be recognized that the fiscal consequences of development
depend heavily upon the fiscal system dictated by state law. Increasingly,.
state aid and fiscal law are aimed at equalizing tax burdens among munici-
palities, which means reducing.the fiscal significance of "tax profitable"'
or. tax deficit" development. It seems likely that the future will see this
trend continue. TIAs could mean serious disappointment for any community
which accepts otheiwise undesirable development for tax tain that may,be
l.ater.legisla ted away, or for any community which denies otherwise desirable
developimant because of presumed tax deficit that future legislation, could

offset.,
This uncertairty has important implications:
Predictions are perilous; note that methods and findings in this
Chapter are based on the current Massachusetts state-local.fiscal-system;
Fiscal impacts should.not, as they s6metiiies do, monopolize study
effort and attention; other issues may deserve more detailed study;
Decisions an development proposals should not be based primarily on
fiscal.c.onsiderations, since they are hard to forecast and may betransitory.
Decisions based solely on fiscal considerations ailsoraise ethical
problems,... Carried to an extreme, such decisi6n-m,*ing results- in social
exclusion', identification of all children as liab-J.lities,..and.distortion
of patterns of economic growth.

Key Aspects of Development
Fiscal review of development proposals should usually focus on the
following aspects of development which often have the largest fiscal con-
sequences.
Residential v. Non-Residential. Commercial and industrial developments
pay school taxes but do not directly add school children. They are usually
fiscally profitable. Residential. development is usually not as profitable;
it is often subsidized by commercial and industrial uses.
Number of School Children. More children per dwelling unit means higher
school costs and worse fiscal impact. This is usually the single biggest in-
fluence on fiscal balance of residential development. Number of children
depends largely on the housing type and, especially, on the number of bed-
rooms per unit.
Multi-Family Tenure. Depending on local assessment practices, condo-
miniums may pay, considerably more in taxes than do similar rental units
Seasonal Occupancy. Seasonally occupied units do not have profitable than
year-round units. Be careful, however. Many "second" homes eventually be
come first homes. -

Major. Public Improvements. Developments which precipitate major, in-
creases in the capacity of public facilities (a new well, sewage treatment
plant, school, etc.) can be unusually costly and affect the community's debt
ratio and borrowing ability.
Phasing of Development. The phasing of the development can have a cri-
tical effect on the timing of, required public improvements and on the commun-
ability to extend its services and facilities in a gradual and planned

manner.
Special Tax Arrangements. In Massachusetts, developments "taxed" under
Chapter 121A arrangements pay much smaller tax revenues to the community
than do conventionally taxed developments. But, 121A developments don't add
to the community's assessed valuation --and because state aid to communities
is rouqhly inversely proportional to their assessed valuation, 121A develop-
ments don't diminish state aid in the way conventionally assessed develop-

ments may.
l2qe

Internal Services. L arge developments may provide many-of their own
services (such as security guards, recreation facilities,,water supply), re-
the public service costs.

Suggestions for Fiscal Studies
Fiscal studies deal with many factors and often raise questions about
what should and should not be counted. The followinggeneral suggestions
may be useful.
Focus on Change in the Tax Rate. Don't stop after a calculation of
fiscal gain or loss. It is in the tax rate where property own ers will feel
the real fiscal effect of a development. During the calculation, measure
costs and revenues at consistent points in time; for example, don't weigh
.COBtS.accruing in five years against benefits accruing one year after de-
velopmentAs completed. One might assume that development,ha,d..been.in place
and operating one year ago, or five or ten years in the future. It may be
2
us.efulto calculate impact on the tax rate at several points in time..
Assume that current levels of service in the community will be maintained
(which may well not be true).
Count Both Costs and Revenues. A developer may only point out,the new
revenues his development will provide. Opponents may only point out the new
school that will be needed. Both elements should be taken into-account.

Be@'Consistent in the Portion of Costs and Revenues Aiialyze Normally,
analysis should be confined to,,those costs funded by property taxes, exclu--
ding those paid by excise taxes, revenue sharing, state aid,,etc.f and com@
paring those costs with revonues derived from property taxes... Change in
level.of'state school aid should also normally be analyzed,,especially in
the case of development involving few or no school',children,,since the level
of that aid is often strongly affected and is highly signi.ficant:to the tax

rate.

isee also Thomas Muller, Fiscal Impacts of,Land Devel opment,A Critique of
i
Methods and Review of Issues, Washington, D.C.: Urban'Institute, 1975.
2Normal assumptions are that (a) inflation can be ignored because the de-
velopment's revenues would increase Just as its costs do; and (b) the de-
velopment.is a net addition to the community; even.if the residents and
shops occupying it come from elsewhere in town, it.,is assumed that outsiders
will mve in to replace them.

Make Roug.hEstimates. Precise calculations ar Ie rarely worth the ef f ort,
since the basic assumptions of fiscal analysis (such as continuation@bf pre-
sent-state-aid.,formulae) are quite crude. Local spending and tax rates, for
example, change,every'year. Public services,'by their nature, serve the en-
tire,.Community, so trying to identify the costs a particular development.
will add is at best an approximation.
Use Averake Costs. Assume that new development has the same average
costs (per pupil, per dwelling) as present devel4ment in the community.
(These-cost.� should include both operating and routine capital costs. They
should not include the costs.of major, exceptional public improvements.
Where these.are required, separately compute debt service attributable to
the new development.) Rather than using average costs, one could try,t6 fi-
gure out.,@Atdm-by-item, all the marginal costs due''to a development, that is,
the actual Added cost of added service. Such.an approach is very..time-
consuming.,- however, re quires many assumptions, may not add r
puch accukacy@ And,
in fact, may underestimate the eventual costs of serving the development.
However, some caution is appropriate in using an average cost approach.
It may be increasingly more expensive to s .ervice new d eVelopment which over-
strains,facilities, even before major additions or improvements.are nece ssary.
On the.other hand, underutilized facilities, such as half-empty classrooms,
may easily accommodate new development at far lower costs than the pre-
existing community average. In important and obvious cases, the average.cost
estimates for new dev6lo pment might be adjusted to reflect such e conomie sand
diseconomies of, scale.
Treat School Costs Separately. They are the single largest item in,
local budgets, are easy to distinguish, and vary enormously by land use.
In Most Cases, Treat All Other Costs as a Single Item. There:are many
otler public services, each of which makes up a relatively small fraction of
total costs. Costs of each service attributable to a proposal are hard.to
identify separately. Ordinarily, line-by-line analysis of the local budget
is probably only worth the extra effort where a very large developmen.t.is
proposed.

For examples of a line-by-line Approach, see Adims, Howard and'Opperman,
Comprehensive Development Plan, Town of Lincoln," 1965; Brookline Planning
Department, "Residential Cost-Revenue Analysis," July 1973; and James Minuto,
Cdst-Revenue Study, Community Development Department, Cambridge, Mass., March
1976.

Steps in Fiscal Analysis
Conducting a fiscal analysis will require an assortment of data. It
will save time to g ather as much of this information as possible at the
outset. What data is available might affect what time frame or method is
selected for the analysis. A list of data helpful for a first-cut fiscal
impact estimate follows with possible sources. See'also Selected Biblio-
graphy.

Data Sources

Number and mix of unit types of proposed Developer; real estate experts
development (or area if nonresidential)

Estimate of assessed value per unit of Assessor; real'estate experts;
proposed development,(or per sq.ft.) or Aimilar projects; developer
.estimate of revenues if commercial or
apa rtments

Community's actual tax rate, school,tax M.T.F.; Assessor; tax bill
rate, general tax rate, and total
assessed,valuation

ty"s residential/non-residential M.T.F.; Ass
Commix.1i essor; Bureau.of Local
assessment breakdown Assessment,,Dept, df Corporations
and Taxation

Public school enrollment School Dept.; State Dept. of Edu-
cation, Division of Research,
Planning and.Evaluation, "Pupil
Accounting Workbook".

Number of dwelling units in, community Master Plan; regional planning
agency; building permit records
from Building Inspector or State
Building Code Commission; 1970
U.S. Census (for pre-1970 data)

Number of. seasonal units (if significant) Same

Number of single-family, garden, town-, Assessor; Building Inspector (see
house, condominimum, high-rise* etc. above).
units

Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, "Municipal Financial Data: Including
1977 Tax,Rates" (updated annually), an excellent source of:data for fiscal
analyses in Massachusetts municipalities. See what is available here tiefore
looking further.

Data Sources

Community's assessed valuation, popu- MTFl
lation, and Assessment Ratio

Community's current state school aid School Dept.; Planning and Research
Bureau, Dept. of Corporations and
Taxation

The following steps are involved in estimating the tax impact of each The followin involve estimating the tax impact of each
development outcome.
1. Estimate revenues;

2. Estimate costs:

2.1 School-costs,
2.2 Non-school costs,
2.3 Change in state school aid,
2.4 Extraordinary capita1 costs;
3. Calculate tax rate impact;
4. AdjUst for secondary impacts, if any;
5. Devise means of mitigating any negative impacts.

Note that this method uses "no-build" as a baseline, and Measures dif-
ferences-which any development outcome would make from that base1ine. Any
consistent time can be used; we suggest and illustrate using an historical
analysis: what would have been if the development had existed in the most
recent past year for which good data is available. The alternative is to
Project many Independent variables, difficult and error-prone.

STEP 1. ESTIMATE DEVELOPMENT-REVENUES

Revenues from each development outcome are equal to the actual tax rate
times the assessed value of the property.

Revenues - Assessed Value (in $1,000's) x Actual Tax Rate

1.1, Estimate Assessed Value Per Unit of Development
Realistically estimate the assessment per dwelling unit or per square
of building floor area. Approaches: obtain a ballpark figure from the

10p. cit.

assessor based on the type and quality of development; check.assessments of
similar recent projects; or estimate the market value (from the developer or
similar projects) and adjust it to reflect the Assessment Ratio for your
community. Remember, if the analysis is to be based on two-year old cost
data, assessments should be those that.would have been made two years earlier.

1.2 Determine Total Assessed Value of Development
Multiply the assessment per unit by the number of units (e..g., estimated
.$30,000 valuation per dwelling unit x 200 dwel ling units - $6,000,000 a Issessed
@valuation; $10 per sq.ft. x 20,000 sq.ft. $200,000 assessed valuation).

1.3 Estimate Property Tax Revenues
Multiply the assessed value of the development in $1,000's by the actual
Don't use the so-called "Full-Value (equalized).,Tax Rate,"' since
,tax rate.
2
we. aren t using full-value assessment* Sample calculations are shown, below:

Estimated ass
essled value per dwelling unit) ......... 1$@ 30,000
x Number.of units ....................................... %200
Assessed value of development ......... ........
1,000 ...............
7 ........... 1 000
........... $
Assessed value of develo ment.in $1,000's.. 6:000
x Actual tax rate ($1$1,000'.s) ........ ........... 42.00
ESTIMATED PBOPERTY TAX REVEWES .................. 250,000a
a
rounded.off

A different approach is needed where, property taxes are-set as a per-
centage of rent. Many communities tax apartments and commercialproperties
at,a certain percentage of the rent, usually between 15% and 25%'. Revenues
can be estimated in these cases, by:
a. Finding out what percentage is normally usd&(and whether it is ap-
plied to the total rent roll) by checking with the dssessor@,or looking at
tax payments and rents of other projects.

1This is the ratio of the total assessed value in the community to the equal-
ized ("full market") value of property in the community as estimated by the
State Tax,Commission. The ratio should be used cautiously for.any particular
development, since the degree of underassessment often.differs -among classes
of property and between new and old property. Asses sment ratios are listed
in the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, "MunicipalFinancial Data: Including
1977 Tax.Rates" (updated annually).
2
"Full-Value Tax Rate" = Actual Tax Rate x Assessment Ratio, and is usefU for
comparisons of town-wide fiscal trends over time, and compik%sons across townsP
but.confuses this analysis if introduced.

Multiplying the percentage by the expected annual rent (developer's
astimate or covpetiti-@7e projects)

Tax Percentage x Annual Rent Estimated Property Tax Revenues

:)TEP 2. ESTIMATE COSTS

2.1 Estimate Development School Costs
School costs. are often the largest Costs for,residences and are esti-
mated as follows. Though some analysts disagree, we allocate all. school
costs to year-round residences, none to seasonal residences or non-rdsidential
development.

.2.1.1 Determine Total Local Cost of Education
The school tax levy is the total school cost (including capital costs)
supported f rom local' property taxes (after state aid and.other offsetting
revenuds). The school tax levy (or "school.assessment") can be obtained-.,
from the assessor. Don't use total school expenditure.B or.school.appropri-
ations, since these figures include costs not paid for by the property taxes
being analyzed

2.1.2 Compute Average'Cost Per Pupil
Divide the school tax levy by total public school enrollment (from.the
school'.departmen t).2 This indicates,the current average cost per pupil.
We assume that new pupils will cost thesame as present pupils, although in.
particular instances they may cost either more or.less.. Again, don't.use
published per pupil costs or ones furnished by.the school department,.since
they include costs not paid for by property taxes.

Or computed:. School tax levy Community's Assessed Valuation (in $1100016)
x School Tax Rate (from M.T.F., op..cit

2
Enrollment should be for the same year as the school tax levy., It should
include any pupils from thecommunity who attend regional schools, but ex-
clude private school pupils. If you use state-furnished or other standard-
ized data, be sure what it includes. See.Massachusetts'Department of Educa
tion, Division.of Research, Planning and Evaluation, "Pupil Accounting Work-
book" for school enrollment tabulations for Mass. municipalit,ies broken'.down
into regional, vocational, and local and non-local public and private school
enrollment.

2.1.3 Estimate Number of Public School Pupils Per Unit in Proposed
Development
The number of pupils varies dramatically by type and age' of dwelling
(see Table 4-1 for a list of.important factors). Don't use the current
COMMUnity,average. If the proposal is similar to recent developments in
the community, a survey of such developments might be valuable (door-to-
door or.from school department records). Otherwise, the following may be

used:

To get a local estimate for new-homes, we often assume that a brand-
new home averages one-and-one-half times the average number of chil-
dren from existing homes in the community. Thus, for communities
'which are mostly single-family:
Est. Pupils Per New 1.5 x Current Total Enrollment
Single-Family Home No. of dwelling units in community

See page.', 75 for estimating number of dwellings. This difference between
new and.old homes is a rough rule-of-thumb but is consistent,with household
size data in the 1970 U.S. Census of Housing, "Components of,Inventory
Change, Boston S.M.S.A. Individual communities can check it and readjust
it Lf, indicated.
The, following is a m,ethod.to be.used if a proposal ha's a broadrange
of dwelling types or if the characteristics of future housing are likely to
be different from.existing housing in'the community.
Experience suggests that pupil generation rates vary @iith- the"dvielling
unit type according to fairly constant ratios. Compared'to the number of
pupils,.generated by a typical new single-family unit, a.typical townhouse
apartment unit or condominium@will generate approximately 50% as-many pupils,
A,typical. garden apartment about 15% as. many, and a typical.high"rise unit
only about 5% as many. Therefore, if one can determine the pupil generation
rate for any one unit type, one can estimate it for all unit types.. The
generation rate for any unit type can be calculate'd-from existing housing
and school data.. For example, assume one wzmts the pupil generation rate
for new single-family homes. Call this ratc R. The generation rate for
townhouses or co .ndominium units is, then, 0.50R, for-garden apartment units
0.15R, and for high-rise units 0.05R. Let '; equal the number of existing
single-family homes in the community, G the number of, garden, apartment units,
T the number of townhouse and condominium urits, and H the.number of high-

f ABLE 4- 1
NUMBER OF PUPILS PER UNIT: IMPORTANT FACTORS

Factor Effect

Age of dwelling. New single-family homes have more,children than old
single-family.homes (children grow up :and leavey.
Age has no cleat effect.on apartment [email protected]"
tribution.

Type. of dwelling.@ Single-family homes have more children.than apart-
ments (have more bedrooms, appeal to larger families).
Apartments have special appeal to retired persons,
childless couples, young couples with,pre school.:.
children.

'Number of bedrooms The more bedrooms,.the more children. This. is -.Pf ten
the single most important factor.

Specialized type of Second homes: no.children. Retirement communities,
development elderly housing, singles complexes: few.c@ildren.*
Low-income family housing: morechildren than,
average.

Price of unit Much less important than. number of.bedrooms. Rutgers
study-found that: expensive homes and high-rise
ap e ve..garden
artments have more children, exp nsi.'
apartments have fewer.

CharacteristicB.Of Role of community: e.g., bedroom suburb @has.mo.re
'community children per,unit, college town has fewer.
Strong parochial schools: may.redu,ce.pbblic enroll-
ments.

Year 'Large birth-rate fluctuations have led to large
differences in pupil generation rates over.time:
data'from the '60.'s,overstates@pupil expectations
'for the '70's.

Source: Herr Associates; Sternlieb and Burchell, "The'Numbers Game."

713

rise units. This data will usually be available from the assessor or buil-
ding inspector,or can be roughly approximated. The current total school

enrollment is then

Current Total
Enrollment (0.67R)S + (0.5R)T + (0.15R)G + (0.05R)H

Solving for R:

R Current Total Enrollment
(0.67S. + 0.5T + 0. 15G + 0.05H)
One can now predict the proposed development's school iBnrollment:
Enrollment From R( S'+ 0.5V I+ 0.15GI + O.'1)5H')
...,Proposed Development
where S' V G' and H' refer to the number, of units of each type' expected
in the proposed development.
Fot example, in a community there might be;

total currentenrollment
22,000 single-family homes
0townhouse units
.4,000 garden apartment units
2,000 high-rise units

14,600
R =
0.6,7(22,000) + 0.5(0) + 0.15(4.,000) + 0. 05 (.2, 6'00)

R:= 0.86.pupil,s per unit

A mixed development of 200 single-family and 50 townhouse units.would pro-
duce the following projected enrollments:

Enio'llrdent 0.86(200 + 0.5 x 50) 197, say 200.

'The pup-'-l generation rate R for new single -family'homBs -has been multi-,
'plied by,a correction factor of 0.67 in this, equation 3e.cause existing
single-family homes generally have only two-thirds as -nany,pupils as new
(proposed) single-family dwellings.

2.1.4 Determine School Cost Per Proposed Dwelling Unit
This is'simply the average cost per pupil (from 2.1.2) timesthe n U.Mr,
ber of pupils per unit.(from 2.1.3)'. For example:

$940 per pupil x 1.2 pupils/unit $1,130 school cost pet unit

Where the proposal includes severaltypes of units .(e.g., studios,and
two-bedrooms; townhouses and garden apartments) estimate the average cost
per unit for each'type.

2.1.5 Determine Total 'School Costs for Proposed Development
Multiply-the average cost per dwelling unit by the.number 6f.,units pro-
posed (e.g.,.$1,130 per unit x 200 units $226,000 school costs).
Where the development includes several types of units (e.ge', studios,
2-bedrooms; dingle-fam:Lly and apartments), first estimate the costs for each'
set of units (e.g.,.$600 per 1-bedroom unit,x 10 17-bedroom units $6,000.;
$1,200 per 27bedroom unit x 20 2-bedroom units $24,000). Then, sum all:., the
costs (e.g. $6,000 + $24,000 $30,000).
Sample calculations are shown below..

levy ....................................... $770,800:
7 Currentenrollment .................................... :$ 820 pupils
Average cost per pupil ............................... 940 per pupil
x Est. pupils per proposed-dwelling unit ................. i.-2 pupils
School cost per proposed dwelling unit .... $ 1,130
x Number, of proposed -units ......... 200
SCHOOL COST OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT .................. $230jOOO

STEP 2.2A ESTIMATE NON-SCHOOL COSTS FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
The-following method can be used to quickly estimate all non-school
costs (police, fire, roads, general government),to service proposed.resi-
dential development. We assume that each new dwelling will cost the same
as. the,average dwelling in the community.
If a,developmjent is strikingly different from others in the'community,
@it may-be appropriate to analyze more closely one or two particularly sig-
nificant items of tion-school costs.

2.2A.1 Determine Total Non-School Costs in Community
The'ciommunity's total non-school cost is its general tax levy (pro-
perty tax levy less school tax.levy). This can be obtained from the

assessors.

2.2A.2 Determine Residential Non-School Costs

Only some public se rvices go to residences. One can often as sume that
the residential share of non-school costs is simply the same as the resi-
dential share of p roperty values. Total assessments by category of land

use are available from either the local assessors or the Bureau of Local

Assessment, Department of Corporations and-Taxation. Thus, total residen-
tial costs might be estimated:

.Total Residential
Non-School Costs General.Tax Levy x Residential Assessed Valuation
Total Asses.sed,Val.uation

Assessed valuations are not always 'the best way:of splitting costs.. If
therejs'a nuclear power plant in the community,.it may use a small share of
public services but make up a very large share of assessments. Costs can be
split in stea.d in relation to each land use s share.of the community's de
velope'd.acreage (from a recent land use survey) or share:ofemployment
(State Division of Employment Security) plus.populatiori. 'An item-by-item
of costs can also be made, but the effort is,seldomijustified by in-
split 0
crease in' accuracy.

2.2A.3' Estimate Non-School Costs Per Year-Round Dwellin& Unit
Divide the total residential costs by the number of dwelling units in
the community to find the average cost per dwelling unit.
The total number of dwelling units may be listed in a recent Master.
Plan or,estimated by the regional planningagency.. If not.,.one.can use U.S.
Census dat a and building permit records to make an estimate. Find the num-
@er of.*dwelling units for which,building, permits were issued..between, the

or computed: General Tax Levy Community Assessed Valuation.(in.$l'iOOO.'s)
x@General Tax Rate. The general tax rate is printed on-your-tax bill along
with.the 'School tax rate and the total (called "actual" eldewhere in this
manual) tax rate, which combines the two.

beginning of 1970 or other census year and the year preceding the year whose
costs are being analyzed. Building permit information,can be obtained from
the building inspector or the State Building Code Commission, Massachusetts
Department Of Community Affairs. Add the number.of units authorized since
1970 to the number of units listed in the.U.S. Census of Housing',;then round
off low, to reflect permits issued but not used (sometimes estimated at 5%
of the total), plus demolitions.
Another,approach is to determine the number of occupied units. If the
building inspector keeps tabs on the number of occupancy permits', the number
issued since 1970 can be added to the number of occupied units in the-.1970
U.S. Census of Housing,
.Adjustments are needed if the community now contains a large number of

seasonal units.

2.2A.4 Estimate Non-School Costs for Proposed Year-Ro Iund Dwellings .
Multiply,the average non-school cost' per year-round dwelling,by'the num-
ber of such@units in the development. If the development contains 'only, year-.
round units,.*STOP.;: Sample calculations are shown below.

General, tax levy -, ....................................... $410,000
X % Residential (e.g., residential total assessed
Valuation in community .............................. .7
Residential non-school costs ........................... $307,500
Number of dwelling units in community ................. '770 unit's
Average cost per year-round dwelling unit ............. $ 400/unit
x Number of year-round dwellings in development ......... 200 units
NON-SCHOOL COST OF YEAR-ROUND DWELLINGS ............... $OQ,000

Seasonally-occupied units generally cost less, to service. If they cost.
half as much as year-round units, calculate costs per "equivalcmt", year-
round unit in the community as follows:
Non-School Cost.Per Year- Residential Nbn-School Costs for:Community
Round Equivalent Unit of Year-Round Units,+ 0.5,x of:Seasonal
units.
Season'ally-occupied units aren't listed as suchin any regular data source,
but- 'can be approximated by adding units listed as "Vacant -- Seasonal and Mi-
grz;.toryll and "Vacant -- Held for Occasional Use" in the-1970 U..S.@ Census;.of
Housing. Remaining units are considered !'year-round.

2.2A.5 Adjust for Seasonal Dwellings (If Anticipated).
The following steps can be used to consider selasonal.dwellings.
a.- Estimate average cost per seasonally-occupied unit. This is prob-
ably about half the cost per year-round unit. Occupantsmay only be in the
community-a quarter of the year and thus make smaller demands on roads,
libraries, sewers. However, they usually add to the peak period demand for
which roads and utilities are designed and require some police and fire.pro-
tection during the rest of thelyear. If year-round units.cost $400 eazh, we
usually assume that seasonal units cost $200 each. iffeasible@i, adjust
this fraction up or down depending on local experience.
b., Estimate costs for ..all antidipated.seasonal units. Multiplythe
average cost by the numberof seasonal units proposed.
c. Add costs of seasonal units to cos!ts of year-round units to find,
the total non-school costs of the development.

.,-STEP 2.2B, @ESTIMATE NON-SCHOOL COSTS FOR NON-RESIDENTIAL DEVELO PHENTS

Costs of new commercial and industrial development can, Also be esti-
mated in,terms of average unit costs. The non-residential, share of.the gen-
eral tax.levy can be estimated and then determined per acre., per employee,
or per $1,000 valuation. But the results..are much less reliable..than resi-
dential-cost estimates, since commercial and industrial development.includes
such an enormous variety of land uses.,
Another Approach might be to estimate a range of costs based on the
non-s.chool taxes paid by the developmenti Commercial and industrial uses
probably cost no more to service than they pay in such taxes.-, In,fact,
they probably cost substantially less. (Some of the services e.g., librar-
ies and recreation, primarily serve residents.) Some detailed cost studies
in Massachusetts have implied that the non-school costs of such uses average
about-.25%,of their non-school revenues (Lincoln), 65% (Ashland), and 60%

Unless they precipitate major public improvements. Note: Even if they
only,'.'brpak even" on non-school costs and revenuest comme-r-cial and indu6-
trial uses can.still be very profitable, since they pay school taxes.but
have no school costs.

"downtown Boston). Therefore, one might estimate a range of no, -school
a

costs:

Non School Costs (say .30 to .70) x Assessed Value of Nevi

Development x General Tax Rate

Percentages can be adjusted for the type of development.. Percentages
might be very low for power plants hut quite high for downtown shops which.
add to,peak traffic and parking demands and require public police and f ire
protection.
For major,proposals@, it may be worthwhile to try to estimate. the new
development's share of.. a few large i-,ost items in the community. 'For example,.
traffic from a new shopping center might equal 25% of current.f.iaffic in the
community. It could be roughly assumed that its highway costs would,be
about 25%@of,the current highway budget (from annual report, less state:a'tid.
for highways@. This could be done for the largest non-school items in the
community,.(frequently highways, police and fire) to estimate a-minimum cos t
f6r'the development.@ Total non-s6hool revenues from the development mi
3uggest a maximum figure.

STEP-2 .3 ESTIMATE, SCHOOL AID IMPACT

aid'for education is designed to reduce fiscal disparities,' help-
ing poorer communities more than wealthier ones, with "poor" and 11wealthy"
being measured by relative amounts of assessed valuation per resident.. For
that reason, development which brings a relatively large amount of assessed
valuation relative to'p'opulation (such as non-residential development, or
luxury housing) may decrease state school:'aid perpupil,for all@pupils in
the community. Development bringing low-assessed values relative to popula-
tion,@such as low-income family housing, or housing taxed under a Ch. 121-A
contr@ct) has the opposite effect. The amounts involved can be very;'substan-
tial, so this step shouldn't be overlooked, as it often is.
Be careful.. The following applies to school aid as distributed in Mas_
sachusetts in 1978, following a massive change in the.state aid formula (as
forecast in earlier editions of this manual). More likely than not that
formula will be massively changed again at some point in the future,' afid,it,
certainly doesn't-oapply in other states, This uncertainty sets- a4imit'-on
the accuracy .0 f, to re.cas tof, long-range fiscal 'impact.; such -impact. depends
upon unstable and unpredictable intergovernmental fiscal relationships..

See if the Community is in the "Save Harmlessif Category
The following lists the only municipalities in which development is
likely to.affect the general school aid reimbursement rate. The remaining
80% of the state's communities are currently under the aid formula"s "Save
Harmless" provision, which means that future aid is based'on a fixed per-
centage (107%) of pre-1978 aid, and therefore unaffected by subsequent de-
velopment. To be sure, you can.check with the local school department or
State Department of Education to see if the community, like most, is in the
11save Harmless category.

Non-"Save Harmless" Communities, 1978
Acushnet Clinton Lynn Rutland
Adams. Dracut Malden Shirley
Amesbury Dudley Medford Somerville
Amherst East Brookfield Merrimac Southbridge
Ashley Easthampton Milford Hadley
Athol Fairhaven. Millville spencer
Ayer... Fall River Monson Springfield
:Barre Fitchburg Montague 'Taunton
Belchertown Gardner New Bedford. Templeton
'Blackstone Greenfield North Adams Townsend
Boston Hanson Northampton Uxbridge
Brocton Hardwick Northbridge, Ware
Brookfield Holyoke North Brookfield Warren
Cambridge Hudson Orange Webster
'Charlton Huntington Oxford Winchendon
Chelsea Lawrence Phillipston Winthr6p
Cheshire Leicester Revere Whitman
Chicopee Leominster Rockland Worcester
Clarksburg Lowell RoyalBton

2.3.2 If the Community is "Save Harmless"

If the community is in the "Save Harmless" category (that is, is not
on the preceding list), increased enrollments probably won't increase school
aid, but the cost per pupil reflected in the cost computed at Step 2.1.5
includes such aid. A fair quick estimate is that state aid not received in
such cases equals about 15% of the total school cost calculated at Step
2.1.5. For example, for a community not "Save Harmless" with a school cost
of $230,000 calculated at Step 2.1.5, an additional cost to "correct" for
school aid not received for those additional pupils is 15% of $230,000, or
$35,000.

2.3.3 If the Community is not "Save Harmless"

If the community is not "Save Harmless" (that is, is on the preceding
list), more complex analysis may be needed. If the proposed development
will add about an average amount of valuation per added resident (e.g.,
moderate priced houses, or low-cost high-rise houseing), the school aid rate
impact will be small, and the following can be skipped. In other cases (e.g.,
expensive single-family housing, seasonal housing, or non-residential develop-
ment), the effect should be calculated.

2.3.3.1 Calculating Equalized Assesment Valuation Per Capita

Existing assessed valuation and population are listed in the Massachu-
setts Taxpayer's Foundation's Municipal Financial Data, issued annuallly.1
Divide the listed assessed valuation by the "Assessment Ratio" to "equalize"
for local assessment practices. For example, Greenfield is listed as having
a 1978 assessment (AV) of $132,643,000, assessment ration (AR) of 74%, and
1975 population (P) of 19,087. Baseline local equalized valuation per
capita (LEVB) is:

1 For communities whose school costs are chiefly those of a regional school
district, this whole calculation, both assessed valuation and population,
has to be done for the whole region rather than only for the subject
municipality.

POLICY PLAN ALTERNATIVES:
GENERATION AND REVIEW.

Philip B. Herr
Mary E. Lord
Environmental Impact Ajisessment Project
Laboratory of Architecture and Planning
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts

July 1978

LEVB = AVB x 1 = $132,643,000
AR PB 0.74 x 19,087

= $9,390 per capita

Calculate the future local equalized assessed valuation (LEVF), this
time including the proposal. For example, imagine a 100-unit luxury high-
rise in Greenfield, with estimated assessed value of $70,000 per unit, or
$7,000,000 total, and population of 1.5 persons per unit, or 150 persons:

LEVF = ($132,643,000 + $7,000,000)
0.74 x (19,087 + 150)

= $9,810

Methods for estimating population of developments are discussed at
page 112.

2.3.3.2 Calculate Change in School Aid

Find the amount of school aid the town was expected to receive for
the study year ("Base Aid") and the "School Aid Percentage" (SAP), figures
available from either the loval school department or the state Department
of Education, and use them in this unfortunatley intimidating equation:

(LEVB - LEVF) x Base Aid
$13,000* x SAP

* This $13,000 firgure is the 1978 equalized valuation poer capita statewide
($11,100) divided by the 1978 "Local Support Percentage" (0.78), so it
will change over time. The change should be slow, however, so this can
serve approximation for many years.

For the Greenfield example, "Base Aid" $1,400,000 and the School Aid
Percentage is,0.26:

($9,390 - $9,810)@k $1,400jOOO
Change in School Aid
$13,000 x 0.126

$170,000

in other words, each dwelling unit in this "fiscally attractive".
luxury high-rise development results in loss of $1,700 in school aid, almost
ce rtainly enough to.wipe out any fiscal gain otherwise developed, which was
one' of the intents of the aid formula'.s design.

ESTIMATE COSTS FOR MAJOR PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS (where relevant)
Cost estimates made to this'point assume that proposed development will
have the same.average costs (both operating and.capital) as existing devel-
opnentin the community. A few proposals, however, impose costs far above
th2 current community average by precipitating certain major public improve-
ments. In these cases, extra debt service due to !the deve"looment should be
counted as an additional cost. The following steps are:iiivolved.

The school tax levy in Massachusetts reflects past school capital costs.
@.Thus, include new schools as major public improvements only where their
incidence is significantly different than in the past.

Determine What Improvements-are Involved
First,,idetermine if the development-will precipitate any major public
improveme rits. See Chapter 2, "Traffic Impacts," and Chapter 3 "Public,
Facility Impact6.11: Check with. relevant local agencies,. and perhaps with
.design professionals.
'it improvements are require&, will they push thepro 'sal's
Second, @po
costs far above the.curient community average? This is likely where the
improvements:
would not otherwise be built in the foreseeable future.;
would substantially increase the communit ytIs current annual debt.
service; and
would go beyond the typeand.scale of improvements now being paid

a4
for by the.community (e.g., a new school in a town which hasn't built'@
school in -20 years,. the establishment of a public sewerage system, etc.).
Ig the improvement meets all the above,.calculate added debt service
duE -to @..the proposal as follows:

2.4.2 Estimate Municipal Cost of the Improvements
Municipal [email protected] @,cos t'less state or federal aid les's any ,
cortributioris by the developer. The specific local -agency -or desi
gn profes-
sionals. can help estimate.costs.

2.4.3 Determine Municipal Cost Due to the Proposal
in some cases, the facility will be utilized primarily by the new de-
velopmdnt, and costs may appropriately be allocated entirely to it. Usually,
however, the facility,will be shared by existing a@-,_well as new residentst
even if it is,:triggered by new.development. What share of the costs.might
onC allocate to the new development? The issue is very complex. One approach
isto allocate to the 'new development only the share of costs needed to meet
the demands create d by. it. Thus, in the case of new school facilities,, the

Quickly estimateannual debt service for the improvement (say 10% of the
municipal cost estimated in Step.2.4.2). Comparethis to fhe'community's
current annual principal @and interest gayments On- all improvements. Would
ty -crease substantially?.
the communi '-s @&bt ,service -in

number of pupil-years provided by the school over its expected
lifetine can

form the basis for,the cost allocation.

2.4.4 Calculate Average Ye!ir Debt Service Due to the Proposal
The Additional principal and interest payments in an ave rage year 2 are
computed as follows:

Average Year, -Principal Pr ncipal
Debt Service Repayment Period + 2 X Interest R ate

(Municipal interest rates now seem to be fluctuating around 6%.)
Note on Bonded Indebtedness. Major public improvements can also affect
.the.communityvs bonded indebtedness. Will the improvements make it difficult
for the municipality (or a public service district) to borrow.money for other
needeff facilities? Local officials who normally de al with,bo'nding,and plan-
ning,capital improvements might:,
a. Estimate costs-of the required improvements (Steps 2.4.-1 and 2.4.2
above).
b. Schedule the improvements.
c'. Estimate what the principal and interest payments, would be each year;
estimate what the outstanding debt would be.
d. @Compare these figures with what is already being Planned (e.g..,,in
an ongoing capital improvements program).
e., Determine if the total level of borrowing would be likely to impair
the community's credit rating and increase Interest costs. (slow common
su ggestions-are keeping net debt.less than LO% of.equal#edvaluations, and
keeping, Annual debt service less than 15% of the property,, tax. levy")

STEP 3. CONSIDER. SECONDARY:IMPACTS OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

These effects are often small and elusive. They are often not worth de-
tailed study. Forsome proposals, however, indirect costs and revenues are
significant and should be included in estimating the tax rate change.

S,ae Thomas Muller, Fiscal Impacts of Land Development, op. cit.* p. 50.
2 Tle average year (when half the principal has been pai d off) provides a
loag-term estimate of the extra costs.

3.1 Nearby Property Values

Effects of a proposal on surrounding property values are hard to pre-
dict, may only reflect a transfer in land values from another part of the
community, may not show up in re-assessments for years, and in the long run
mau just promote more intensive development with its own service costs. The
effect, may be relatively clear and significant in some cases, however. Local
officials and merchants might agree, for example, that a department store
proposed for a stragnating downtown would stimulate sales of other businesses
and push up property values.

Change in tax revenues can be estimated in such a situation:

a. Divide the area around the proposal into a few zones, using a copy
of the assessor's map.

b. For each zone, add up the current taxes on all properties (from the
assessor's commitment sheets).

c. Multiply the current taxes by a reasonable percentage change for
each zone; closer zones will usually show larger changes.

3.2 Spur to Other Development

The likelihood that a major proposal will lead to other development in
the community is worth considering. A subsidiary activity, for example,
might later be built right by the development, e.g., a gas station next to
a shopping center. A major employer in a rural area may increase housing
demand by attracting workers to the region; some may settle in the commun-
ity.1 A big tax rate drop might attract in-migrants.

In such cases, secondary costs and revenues due to the initial proposal
can be estimated:

a. Guess the type and amount of secondary development.
b. Estimate the net impact on costs and revenues

1 Some secondary fiscal impacts are usually not very significant. Shopping
centers, for example, have little effect on local housing demand, since
they don't usually attract employees from outside the regoin. Major new
employers in metropolitan communities probably have little effect on hous-
ing since most workers will probably commute; there may be little in-migra-
tion. New housing does lead to retail development, but the stores may be
built outside the community and the extra tax revenues may be quite small
(often less than $30 per new dwelling).

A lowered tax rate (accruing from a lucrative development) may itself
spur additional growth. The additional growth may wipe out or augment
earlier fiscal gains. Thus, the full chain of secondary impacts resulting
from major de velopment can sometimes be very important.

3.3 Sizelof Community
As communit ies grow, their demand for higher service levels,:their ex-
penditure levels, and tax rates change. A major residential development can
thus have a long-term effect on community costs. simply by increasing the pop-
ulation. We roughly estimate that for Massachusetts communities under
50,000, each,71,000 extra people might add a half.dollar to the local tax
1
rate. The effect is therefore quite small for most new developments.
Higher tax rates in large communities may reflect added public func-
tions (e.g., public sanitation), the substitution of professional employees
(firemen, administrators) for volunteers, and extra.layers of adminisr-ation.
In any event, the most important implications of increased community
size may not beon the local tax ratebut on the shift in demand among public
services,, the style and structure of local government,and the opportunities,
diversity And social character of. the community.,

STEP 4. COMPUTE CHANGE IN THE TAX RATE.
The, difference the development would make in the tax'.rate if@ the com-
z@un#y mainta'ins.its current level of services is estimated.as follows:

4 1 Determine Annual Fiscal Gain or Loss
Add up all the direct and indirect costs and revenues. from the'.develop-
ment. The result is the annual fiscal gain (or loss) due to the proposal.

4.2 Calculate Tax Rate Change
Divide the annual fiscal gain or loss by the combined assessed value
of the. community and the development.
if this number is positive (revenues greater than costs), it shows how
much the tax.rate would be reduced. If negative (revenues less than costs),
the! tax.rate would rise by that amount. Table 4-3.shows a,format for esti-
mating tax rate change.

1,000 people means About 300 single-family homes or 400 apartments.

TABLE 4@-3
SAMPLE FORMAT: TAX RATE CHANGE DUE TO DEVELOPMENT

Revenues,from development .............................. .$250,000
Schobl costs ........................... ....................... -0- 230,00 0
Non-schoolicosts .... ......................... . 8Q,000_1
Change in state aid .................................... + 40,000.
Average year' debt@se,rvice for public itiprovements
(i f any requ_ired)@ ........ _-_ ................ *......... O@
Secondary impacts'(taxes,lost from reduced nearby
valuations) .............................................. 10,000
Totai annual fiscal gain or loss ......................... -30,000
Assessed value of community plus development
(in `$1,000,s) .......................................... 34,000
ESTIkAT.ED'.CHANGE IN TAX RATO .......................... 0."90 in-
crease

a
where annual fiscal-gain, this is' the potential reduction in the tax rate;
where'@Idnnual fiscal los.s,.this is the potential, rise in the tax@rate.'

For residential developments, it may be valuable to.work.out a table.
or chart which shows tax rate change for different kinds. of units.. Instead
of going through the analysis each time a-deVelopmentis proposed, one
could *look up for each proposalla average assessed.Value and,,
school children per unit. Following.is a possible format.

EFFECT OF A 100--wUNIT DEVELOPMENT OF THE (1972) BOURNE TAX RATE
Type of Dwelling.
Average Assessed Seasonal Year-Round
Value Per
4 of children per unit
Dwelling Unit
0 1 2
$10,000 +$0.04 +$0.23 +$0.65 +$1.04
$20 000 0.13 + 0.08 + 0.147 + 0.88
$30,000. 0.26 0.07 + 0.30 +,@O.71
$40,000 0.43 + 0.14 0.54,
$50,000". 0.,.57 0.39 0.02 + 0.38
$.60 0.@71 0,.53 0.17, + 0.22
Assessed,valuation
pe.z. unit needed to $12,500 $25,000 $49,000 $74,0010'@
11bl reak even"

Baied on-Herr Associates,' Guide to the Fiscal'impact of - Development,, Bourne.
Planning Board-,. revised, IT September 1974.

STEP 5.. @MAKING FISCAL IMPACTS BETTER
Because anticipated fiscal impacts are difficult to accurately fore-
cast and may be transitory, they should rarely be a,decisive element by them-
selves in land use decisionmaking. Preliminary findings of.negative fiscal
impact can be responded to in several ways. One may find,:for example, that
the positive social benefit of broadening the mix of housing opportunities
outweighs a negative fiscale imp act and therefore suggests project approval.
Similarly, it may be clear that other projects with positive.fiscal benefits
will counterbalance those with a fiscal deficit.

A community can consider several Actions to mitigate negative fiscal

impacts. Among them:
The developer can be urged to change his proposed land use mix. He
may, perhaps, add or expand nonresidential uses suchas commercial or indus-
trial space. The mix of unit types. in a residential development may be modi-
fied. One should, however, beware of.restricting housing opportunities for,
large fa milies in this approach.
The developer can be required to pay the capital costs,attributable
to.aim. Issues of allocating costs between old,and new development are high
lighted in 2.4.3. Also, user.chatges, as opposed to general property taxes,
can be,levied to pay for operating expenses of a new development, insuring
that those.who receive the benefits,of services are the same people who pay

for them.,

Other Actions require state authorization:
Consideration.can be given to changing the local:tax structure.
Usually, 'a uniform tax rate applies to all Froperties tegardless.of use.'
However, states can, authorize exceptions, as in Montana,.wher.e.co rcial
and industrial uses may be taxed at higher rates than residential property.
In Massachusetts, communities are empowered to apply.lower tax rates only
to farmland, forests, and conservation land.
Another possibility lies in tax base sharing among neighboring mun-
icipalities, an approach, that has been successfully implemented in the
Minneapolis-St. Paul region. In this-approach, the pressure for "fiscallfI
zoning,,and its possible exclusionary consequences are.reduced-bAcause the
benefits of non-residential development are spread out among neighboring
communities.

CHAPTER 5

ECONOMIC IMPACTS
How proposed development might affect jobs and businesses is the sub-
ject of this chapter. Effect on municipal finances is dealt with separ-
ately in the chapter on Fiscal Impacts.

Following are general considerations in predicting economic impacts:

Finally, there are "foot-loose" activities which are not tied to the
region at all: if not developed at.a proposed site, all of their economic
benefits will possibly be lost. Good examples are major power plants, gov-
ernmental facilities such as the much-sought solarenergy lab., and home
offices of national corporations.
imp acts. are discussed separately for non-residential and residential
development. At the.end of the chapter, relationships between the economic
impacts of development and the needs of the community are discussed. It is
notalways obvious whether an impact is good or bad for the community. Each
impact must,therefore be eviluated with respect to the community's specific
goals and 'concerns.

NON-RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

New factories, stores, and institutions can affect the local economy in
a number of ways. Concerns vary from one community. to another, but common
questions@about proposed non-residential development might include:

Employment.
a. How many Jobs'will be created,' including both construction and per-
manent, jobs?
b. Will the firms hire locally or bring workers from otherparts of the
state or country? Would development substantially increase,the,number of
jobs within commuting range of local residents?
c. What kind of jobs will be created? Do they match skills of local
residents? Do they match categories of high unemployment? Do they provide
opportunities for skill-building and advancement?

@Business Opportunities
a. 'Woilld the new development physically displace existing businesses?
Will older stores simply relocate into the new facility.yielding no net in-
crease in.local business activity?
b. Would the new development compete for sales with existing local,
businesses? Are failures and vacancies likely?
c.. 'Would existing commercial areas be strengthened and supported?
d Are the new activities likely to buy goods and services,from local
businesse,s? Ate they likely to provide convenient nearby., supplies for

local businesses now reliant upon more distant suppliers?

e. Would the development provide space for local entrepreneurs?

Other Effects

a. Would goods or services be "exported" to other parts of the state or

country, brining outside income into the area or would they chiefly be sold

to local purchasers? If chiefly to local purchasers, would this be in compe-

tition with existing local suppliers, or would it replace purchases now made

outside the area and "imported" to it?

b. Would new activities diversify the economy?

c. What would be the effect on nearby property values?

d. Would there be other imprtant indirect effects such as comgestion

or polluction, or secondary impacts such as stimulating population growth?

These issues are discussed briefly below.

Employment

a. Number of Jobs. The developer may provide an estimate of the number

of construction and permanent jobs, or the following rough estimates may be

used.

(1) Construction Jobs. Each million dollars of construction may

mean about 39 man-years of labor on the site. 1 Man-years are a good general

measure, although they are of course split among many craftsmen each working

for a short period of time. Construction costs (excluding financing, land,

architects) may be obtained from the developer. Table 5-1 shows some rough

cost estimates and the number of construction jobs that might be required

for each 1,000 square feet of floor space.

(2) Permanent Jobs in a Development. Sometimes the specific busi-

nesses that will be locating in the new space are known and the job estimates

can be obtained from merchants and managers. Otherwise, it may be possible

1 We assume labor is about 50% of construction cost, a man-year is equiva-
lent to 2,000 hours, and hourly wages range from about $7 to $10 (source:
Assoc. of General Contractors). The Boston Redevelopment Authority has as-
sumed slightly more than 30 man-years of employment per million dollars of
construction (e.g., 32 for offices, 33 for retailing, 34 for factories).
See "Jobs for Boston's Future: Expanding the City's Economic Base Through
Capital Investment--Mayor Kevin White's Program, " November 1975.

TABLE 5-11
ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION JOBS BY BUILDING TYPE

Est. 1976 Construction Est. Man-Years Per
Building Type. Cost Per,.Sq.Ft.a 1,000 Sq.Ft.b
:Warehouse $15-20 0.5-0.6
Factory 15-25 0.5-0.8
Shopping Center, Retail Stores 15-25
0.5-0.8

Motel, Hotel 25-35 0..8-1.1

Office
Low-rise 25-40 0.8-1.2
High-rise 40-55 1.2-1.7
Restaurant 30-;-45 .0.9-1.4
School 30-45 0.9-1.4.

Bank 40@50
1.2-1.5
.10spital 55-75 1.7-2.3

Associates estimates based,on Means, Building Construciion,Cost@Datq,
.19.75;@McGraw-Hill,. Do@&e Construction System_Costs,'1975; and Pasadena
Fo.othill,Chapter, AIA, Preliminary Cost Guide:. Complete_System.for Total
Pro ect Development, 1974@.

b@
"'Assumes 30 man-years per million dollars of construction costs.

to predict the type of businesses that will be attracted (adjusting for
simple relocation s of existing local firms) and to sur vey the number of Jobs
which existing businesses of those types provide. Alternatively, a rough
estimate may be obtained with Table 5-2 which shows how many square feet
there might be per employee. Offices, for example, have about 200 sq.ft.
per employee. A 200,000 sq.ft. office building might thus have about l,000

workers.
(3) Indirect Jobs. New development indirectly creates other jobs
elsewhere in the economy as supplies are purchased and workers spend their
wages. But these effects are hard to measure and may be small for a local
area (Purchases tend to "leak out" to other parts of the state or co un try:
steel girders may come from the midwest, lawbooks from Minnesota, a paper
mill's pulp from outside the state, etc.). Instead of computing the number
of indirect jobs, it may be more appropriate to look for aspects of a devel-
opment which ate especially likely to increase local employment. For example
note if the. development (a) is near a shopping center, so workers may stop
there on the way home from work; (b) is especially likely to buy supplies

from local businesses; or (c) exports goods and services outside the area,
thus ob taining out side In come.

b. Outside Hiring. Are a large number of the, new jobs likely to be.
filled by workers from outside the region? This may sometimes happen in non-
metropolitan or small metropolitan areas where
--a major,construction contract is involved (e.g.,for a power
plant,oil refinery, university complex);
--the firm has highly specialized skill requirements (e.g., if IBM
locates in a rural town);
--the firm will, employ an exceptionally large number of people com-
pared to the existing labor supply.
Hiring from outside the region can mean an infusion of new people
with new abilities and ideas. It also means that the development offers,
fewer, job opportunities for local residents and, in some cases, might increase

The current number of people working or looking for work (the "labor force")
may be obtained from the state Division of Employment Security, Massachusetts
Trends in Labor Force, Employment, Unemployment. " The labor force is usually
about 40% of an area's population. At any point in time, about 5% of an
areas population is likely to be seeking new employment.

Table 5-2
SQUARE FEET PER ENPLOYEE

Buildin& Average Common Rang
e

a
office 200 s.f. 150- 225 S.f.
retail b. 500 250- 750

c
manufacturing 550 ...250-1,500

d
warehouse 800 500-1,500
hotel/motele 7 riooms

aB,R.A. estimates about 210 sq. ft., "Jobs for Boston's Future..."
b
Sq. ft. gross leasable area. Varies by type of store: low for supermarkets,
drugstores; high for furniture and hardware stores. See: Trip Generation
by Land Use, Part I, ASummary of Studies Conducted,Xaricopa Association of
.,Governments, Arizona, 1974; U.S.. Censuslof Retail Trade,.1972 (Sales per
`employee); Urban Land,Institute, Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, 1975
cWashington, D.C. (sales per sq. ft.).
Varies widely:, low for precision.instruments, primary and fabricated metals,
app'arel, chemicals, rubber, plastics, printing; high for paper, furniture,.
,metal machinery, wood.pro.ducts, stone, clay, glass, concrete. See:
Generation; Boston Economic Development and Industrial Commission, "Boston's
dIndustry"', 1970.
..Source: Trip Generation.
e
Source B.R.A., "Jobs for Boston's Future...

housing demand'as outside. workers move into the region 'temporarily or perma-.
nently.. Some of the new hous ing might be built: in the commuility,. with its
own fiscal, social, and economic impacts.
c. Type of Jobs. The community should consider the type of jobs that
would be offered. Are they the kind that community residents can or want to
apply for? Job.needs are different in each community.. In some., the key con-
@cern may be year-round,jobs, in others part-time second jobs would be especi-,
alLy valuable'. Relevant job characteristics might include:
Wages. Table 5-3 shows average annual wages in different indus-..

tries.

--,,,Skills. Table 5-4 shows occupations required for different indus--
tries.' How does@the u&x of new jobs compare to the skills and;6ccupations of
1
current residents, especially those now unemployed?,' Do jobs and:skills--
match? Are the types of new jobs attractive? Ate they attainable? Would a
job training.program be needed or useful? Is one anticipated?
2
Sex.. Are jobs likely to go mainly to. men or women?
Full-time or part-time.

or seasonal.

Labor conditions, such as on-the-job training, career ladder,
stable employment, unionization.

Because of outside hiring, commuting distances, and mismatlches,between
jobs and,,skills, bnly,some fraction of the new.permanent jobs. in a-deveio'-p-
ment are likely to go to commuAity residents. The rest will go to workers,
from other cities =d towns (for example, only a third of the jobs in Boston's
recent office buildings.were filled by Boston residents 3 It is very diffi-
;cult to predict.who will actually fill the.jobs (and who in turn will fill,
the jobs that the new employees leave behind).

The U.S. Census shows the 1970 occupations for all residents and for those
who were then unemployed; "Social and Economic Characteristics.", For@@.mo.re
recent data in Massachusetts, see Massachusetts Division of Employment
Security, Employment and Wages by Area Th;--n by Industry, 1975, S-202:file,
and Data on the Insured Unemployed.
2AlsoaVailable for each ind ustry from 1970 Census,, but conditions are,changing.
3
Boston Redevelopment Authority, "A Demographic Revolution: The@lmpact of
Office Building and Residential Tower 'Development In Boston," December 1972..

TABLE 5-3
AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES IN MASSACHUSETTS, 1974.

Economic Activity
Average Annual Wage,
Agriculture ............................. ........... $ 7,800

Mining ......................... .......... .............. 12.,000

Construction .............................................. 12,200

Manufacturing ........................ ................ 10,200
ordnance .......................... I ..................... 16,900
Food ........ ** ....................................... 9,800
.Textiles ............................. ......... I ....... 8,500
@Apparel ........................ ...................... 6,300
Furniture ............................................ 8,300
10,400
Paper ...... G...................................
Printing ....................................... 102,000
Chemicals ....... .......................................
-Petroleum, Coal ............... I ...................... 13,600
Rubber 'Plastics .............. 9@, 200
Leather.@ .................... i .................. .......... 7.9400
Stonej Clay, Glass ........................... 11 800
Primary Metal ............ I .................... ...... 11,1000
Fabricated Metal .................. : ..................... 10,400
'Machinery (not electrical) ............................ . 700
:.Electrical Equipment ................................... 10,.600
:Transport Equipment. ......... ...................... 12 i 700,.
Instruments ..... I............. ..................... 11,700

TrAnspbrtation, Communications, Utilities... 11,200
:5 jOOO (plus tips)
Passenger Transit ..........................
Ttuckin g............................... ....... 1 1, 600
Air.Transport ....................................... 14,700
communications .................................... I ... 11,600
Utilities ............................................. 1@1,500

Wholesale and Retail Trade ..................... T,9100
..Wholesale ............................................. ll,@300
Building Materials, Farm Equipment ................... 9 , 7.00
Department Stores,,etc ............................... 5,400
Food ........... ........................................ 5,800
Auto dealers, gas stations ........................... 8,800
Appar6l--i ................ I .............................. 5,600
@Furniture and appliances ............................ 7,500
Restaurant ....................................... 31,600 (plus tips)

Fitiance,.Insurance, Real Eatate@ ....................... 9,700
Banks ........................................ e ......
Insurance Carriers .................................. 10JOO
Real Estate .............................................. 81000

TABLE 5-3 (continued)

Economic Activity Average Annual Wage

Services ................................................ $ 7,900
Hotels, Hotels ...................................... 4,500 (plus tips)
Personal Services ................................... 5,300
Business Services... ................................ 8,200'
Auto repair ...... ................................ 7,300
Amusements. ............. o......................... 5,900
Health Care ...................... .............. 7,700
Education ...... o.................................... . 9,300
Non-profit organizations ....... 6 ...................... @6 , 000,
Other (professional) Services ......................... 12,600

Source:,-Mass. Division of Employment Security, "Employment and.Wages in
Establishments Subject to the Massachusetts Employment Security
Law, State Summary 1974," rounded off to nearest $100.

TABLE 5-4
OCCUPATIONS FOR DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES

of Industry-Workers in Each Occupation
-Industry Professionals Clerical. Service
-SalO.S.-
Kanaprs@ Craftsmen.,, Operatives. Laborers Workers

'Construction 13 7 57 6. 12 1

Manufacturing .18 .1.6 18 41

Transport,
Communications, 14 28" 21 24 6@ 3
Utilities

Wholesale Trade 20 44 10 19 5 1

Retail Trade 16 41 8 8 .41 18
Finance, Real 2 1 70 4
Estate, Insurance

Business & Profes- 20
52 18. @5 1
sional Services

Other Services 14 12 3 11 2 53

TOTAL ALL 25 261. 13 17 3 12
INDUSTRIES

a
does not add due to rounding

Source: U.S. Census, 1970, Detailed Characteristics.

it may be more appropriate to think of a development's jobs as an in-
crease in the employment choices and opportunities accessible to community
residents. The number of jobs in a development might be compared with the
number of jobs. already within commuting range of local residents(perhaps
30-45 minutes):

% Increase,in Job Jobs in Development
Opportunities Current Employment in Community and
Surrounding Towns

Current employment for each city and town can be obtained from the State
Division of Employment Security, "Employment and Wages in Establishments Sub-
ject to the Massachusetts Employment Security Law." Coverage by. this data is
far from complete (government, agriculture, and some other categories are left
out) but it mayprovide a rough basis for the curre nt number of jobs.

Business Opportunities
New development can affect business opportunities in a number of ways.
a. and Relocation. New development might physically dis-
place existing businesses which might go out of business entirely or relocate
in the new development or elsewhere. Some existing stores in an older neigh-
borhood might simply relocate in a new shopping mall. Predictions of new busi-
ness and employment opportunities from development should be adjusted to ac-
count for these displacements and relocations.
b. Competition. Will new commercial development draw a substantial
number of customers away from existing community stores? This may not be a
major concern where;
residents now shop outside the community for items to be sold
in the new development. If people now go to a department store miles away,
a new department store in town may offer little direct competition to local
merchants.
new development is relatively small compared to existing commer-
cial development in the town..

A new DES publication, Massachusetts Cities and Towns, monthly lists employ-
ment tabulated by place of resididence, not work; a useful source, but iniappro-
priate for this purpose..

100

substantial population (or income) growth is,6xpected in the
area to be served by the new development. Rapid growth can aupport.addi-.
tional stores without creating vacancies.

Where competition seems serious, careful analysis will be justified.
The developer's market analysis may suggest where sales will come from.
Another approach is to do the following.
(1) If the development will serve primarily its own town, estimate.
sales in the new development (from the developer, or,'say, $70 per sq.ft. for
department stores, $130 per sq.ft. for supermarkets). 1
(lA): If the development will serve several towns (e.g., a regional shop@
ping center), estimate what share of its sales will come from stores in your
community. The fraction depends on existing commercial development in'the
community.compared to,other towns to be served by.,the new development (U.S.
Census of.Retail Trade indicates 1972 sales foreach.complunity).,
-_,,:(2,Y,,f Compare new development sales (I or 1A) to current sales for that
category.of store in the community (U.S. Census of Retail Trade). This sug-
gests the seriousness of potential competition.
c. Existing C6mmercial-Areas@ New development.in or near existing
commercial areas may strengthen those areas. New offices, stores, hotels
attract.more people to an area. This means more potential customer&for.
existing stores and services, a principle well-illustrated,in successful
2
downtowns, andregional shopping centers. Important implications.:-
(1) New stores can have. two opposite effects: capturing customers but
also inducing potential shoppers to nearby stores. The overall-effect may
be to shift sales from one part of the community to another.
(2) The exact location and layout of new development.:may be very irr-
por tant. Does the design encourage or discourage patrons,14 nd employees
from shopping at existing stores (e.g., by providing one-stop, parking, con-
Yenient walkways, joint access, etc.)?

-Pe-r sqft. of gross leasable area. Dollars and Cents.of Shopping_Centers
'provides,estimates of saleq pe.r sq.ft. for specific kinds of stores.
2 ` - .! I I I ..
.Even directly competitive stores often do.better when they are close to-
-$dther.' offering shoppers a wider array of goods to choose from and there-
fore attracting more customers to the shopping area relative to other
shopping areas.

101

d. Local Sup2liers. is the new activity likely to purchase supplies
from'other'loc@@A` firms (e.g., a container@company,buying from a local paper
mill)? Will-thO new activity sell to local firms more cheaply than presently
more.remote'suppliers? Look for specific arrangements.or possible: connections
with-local contractors or merchants. Other general considerations:,
(1) Smal -1 firms. . generall use outside services more than -lars@e' firms (a
large company may have its own photocopying, printing, stationery,@ legal 'and
medical departments);.,
@(2) 'In terms of the state of Massachusetts as a whole, finance, ser-,
vices, construction, agri culture, ar.d trucking seem.to create the gr&ates@t
additional economic activity. Maniufacturing-has smaller indirect impacts,
since many raw materials come from outside the state.
The impact of these "multiplier effects" can be enormous,. -For example,
because fish'p'r.ocessors purchase virtually all their supplies (fish) locally
from a.labor-intensive industry, each added job in.fish processing results.
in direct and indirect purchases supporting about eight added jobs in the
region,
e-.. Space@ for Entr e vide@ s paces @f or
preneurs. Will the development.Pro
.ne @7 local businesses? Things to look@for:
specific arrangements to. accommodate local entrepreneurs. (e.g.,
a mall with, b@60ts to be rente d to local people).
spaces suitable for local businesses (such as complexes of small
shops or offices) rather than.spaces suitable only for major outside4irms.
any displacementLof existing local businesses from the site.
Relocation may be a difficult problem, especially for small.businesses or
.those with very specialized.site requirements.

Other Effects
a. Export Industries and Import Substitution..Will the new development
simply serve existing population (with shops, services, hospitals, schools,
or will it sell goods and services to people, outside the region ? 11E,x-
port" or "basic" industries earn outside dollars and support population and
employment growth.. Regional population growth requires "basic" job develop-

lHerr Associates, "Waterfront Site Productivit 8 March 19780 for the.
Yo
Gloucester Downtown Development Commission.

102

ment or else results.in more out-commuting or unemployment. ("Taking in
each other's laundry" doesn't provide enough jobs for all the region's
1
worker;3.) Another importantrelated pattern is "imp.oft substitution'.':
will new business activities supplant distant firms in selling locally? Re-_
ducing local dependence on "foreign" goods aids economic growth.
q
E:[email protected] include those which:
ship goods or provide services to state and national markets. Ex-
amples: manufacturing, agriculture, major offices for large organizations
(e.g., the. I,.R,.S. in Andover, Mass.).
bring outsiders to the region, where they spend mone (earned else-
where) on food, lodging, suppl ies, etc. Examples: tourism, summer homes,
universities, military bases.
b. 'Diverse Economy. Activities which diversity the,region's@econoqy
may be especially valuable. Areas now dependent on one or:,two major export
industries may.experience severe unemployment if those industries.close,
move.away (as has happened with textiles, shoes, defense contracts) or occ&-
silonally have bad years (e.g., construction and.tourism).-New activities
Which broaden the region's economy reduce that dependence and may assure
greater economic stability.
C. NeaKbX. Property Values. Nearby property values may. increase or de-
crease,,depending on the development's social, aesthetic, economic and traf-
fic consequences. Public discussion often focuses on the.,,change in.property
values. We urge caution in making pre.dictions, howe:[email protected] some-
times quite complex. Following are some ways to dea"l.with the subject.
@(I) Identify impacts which:seem, clear and large (an unsightly factory
will certainly reduce values of nearby residences).
(2) Focus on the area immediately surrounding a major development,
where.,eff.ects are likely to be strongest.
@(3) An alyze the source of ne ighbors' concerns. Neighbors'-predicti6ns
about property values usually reflect other concerns about the proposal:
its appearance, traffic, noise, occupants. Those concerns should,be dealt
With direictly.

Itlis not always easy (or useful) to distinguish export and local service
Jobsi,especially in metropolitan communities. See Hans Blumenfeld, "The..,
Economic Basis of the,Metropolis:.Critical Remarks on :the 'Basic-Nonbasic'.'
Ccac'ept." -Journal of the American Institute of Planheis,

103

(4) -Recognize,the range of possible impacts. Added traffic on a street
may decrease the. value.of nearby residential properties, but increase the:
value of nearby*commercial properties. Less accessible commercial
properties
may, h6wever,,-decrease in.value. A parcel may become less.valuable in its
current use (e.g., as a single-family home) but more valuable for a'future
use (as a gas station, apartment house, etc.). By reducing the supply of v&-
cant land in an area, the development can push up the price of,remaining.vacant
parcels. Very large developments may saturate,the local market for.that:Iand
use and temporarily -depress nearby land values. The proposal might.pAve the
way for subsequent intensive development in the area; it may get a precedent
for future public.decisions, encourage other developers, and,precipitatemajor
public facility improvements which would also serve surrounding"property,and
raise, property values.-
Do not make detailed predictions without consultationwith disinter-
estdd- real,estate experts. Lay judgment may well be challenged, in. terms of
reliability and f airness.
:d.: Other Econom@@c Ippacts. Consider other economic impa*ts.which,s'eem
significant. For example, new development may have spillover effects isuch as
pollution and@congestion, hurting nearby business activity as well ag,property
value.: Also, a, new firm which greatly increases demand.for certain typds.of
workers (e.g.,:'female clerical help, skilled craftsmen, unskilled..laborers)
can pressure existing firms employing such people to.increase wages. Whether
and how new workers.will be unionized.affects existing unions in the commun-
ity. Outside workers who will move into the community have their own econo-
mic impacts (see Residential.Development below).

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Residential development also has economic impacts, although these.are
sometimes less.visible than effects of new stores and factories.

Construction. Jobs
New residential development creates construction,jobs.. Each dwelling
unit involves about one man-year of on-site construction labor:. 1

Source': Massachusetts Association of Homebuilders.

-.104

Second'Homes as an Export Industry
Second (and retirement) homes are really an "export" or "basic" induat y
ry.
occupants have earned money elsewhere, which they spend in the region for'
food, doctors, gasoline, property taxes, etc. This supports new jobs in the
community and region. As rough.guess, we estimate@that each second home
1
supports 0.15-year-round jobs (perhaps twice as.many jobs.during the peak.
season).

Retailing in the Community
New residents will support additional store sales in the,community and
surrounding towns. In 1972, the average Massachusetts resident spent about
$2,300 in supermarkets, gas stations, department stores, restaurants, and
other retail establishments 1 2
Thus, 1,000 new residents might generate between $2,000,000 and
$31,000,000 in retail sales. (Higher income residents more',lower income
less; selasonalresidents perhaps a fifth as much as year-round residents.)
This would increase sales in existing stores and might support another
301,Q00, to 50,000 sq.ft. of retail space, (assuming annual sales of $6,0 to
$70. per sq.ft.).
How is this likely to affect local retailing? Some but not all ofthe
new sales would occur in the community. The community's share depends on
how its.'commercial facilities compare.with,those of surrounding townsin
terms of@scale, variety, relative distance from the' development, and room
for expansion. For example, if the community,.contains a wide,array.of shops
and is the dominant commercial center in its region,,it may capture a very
laige.sha're of new residents' purchases.. A small communitywith A few local
convenience stores might initially only attract a small share of.purchases.
Butas it.,grows,new retail sales will generally grow at aneven faster rate
because of the broader variety of available 'goods and increased convenience

lHer1r.Associates, "Social and Economic Impact, the@Gkumpin-Fox Development,
Bernardston, Mass.,11 prepared for the Franklin County-Planning Department,
1972*. Wehavefound roughly similar results on Cape Cod.,
2
U.S. Census of Retail Trade.
3
..An elaborate method for estimating local sales is.,described in Daryl
Hellman, "External Impacts of Housing Developments, Calculating Effects on
Urban Land, October 1974-
Commercial Property Values,

-105-

within the community..
In the long run,major new residential development may therefore create
substantial pressures for new commercial development within the community.
Approving large residential proposals may thus have long-range effects on
commercial growth and commercial zoning in other parts of the community.

Employment in the Community
Large residential developments attract new residents (and potential
workers) into the community. Such a development could affect community and
regional employment, and unemployment, in a number of ways (this doesn't
apply to second or,retirement homes which don't add new workers):
a.Labor Force. New residents mean more people holding,or looking
for, jobsin the community. There are normally about 40 job-Seekers for
every 100 residents.
b. Service Jobs. Residents will support additional jobs in retailing,,
medical care, government and other services. Many of the service Jobs may.
occur in nearby towns, as suggested in the discussion of retail sales. In
a small, rural town, 1,000 new residents might lead to 50 service jobs in,
the community; in a large town or city with major commercial development
1,000 new residents might create 150 jobs within the community.
c. Export Jobs.Residential development, unless for the retired or
for seasonal occupancy, adds more job seekers than support for service jobs.
Balance in achieved through added "export jobs," or by commuting outside the
community (or in the short run by increased unemployment or by vacant hous-
ing units). It is useful to at least approximate how much of each of those
iqs a likely consequence. Each 1,000 new residents means 200-350 new "export"
jobs must be provided if net out commuting is not to grow.2
We roughly estimate that 1,000 new residents support 150-200 new service
jobs in the region. The ratio depends on the size of the region income of
residents, and how one:distinguishes "local service" jobs from total employ-
ment. See Franklin County Planning Dept. and Herr Associates, "State of the
Economy: 1975, Franklin County,, Massachusetts"; andEdward Ullman, 'Michael
Dacey, Harold Brodsky, The Economic Base of Americam Cities Seattle: Univ.
of Washington Center for Urban and Regional Research., rev. 1971.
2The Office of State Planning has compiled 1970 U.S. Census data on the numbers
ber of jobs and total labor force in each community (their data also shows
commuting to and from every other city and town). The State Division of
Employment Security lists current labor force and covered employment in
each community, providing a more recent picture of net commuting.

106

INPACT EVALUATION
Several first-cut approaches for predicting how development outcomes
might impact employment and business activity have been outlined. Evalua-
tion of the goodne6s.or badness of these impacts requires judgment. What
relation do they.bear to the community's particular needs and resources? A
few issues ng many are highlighted below.
a. Growth in Number of Jobs. More jobs may be good or may be bad.
Low-skilled or seasonal jobs may be desirable in some places,- undesirable
elsewhere. Needs,have already been identified in many communities by Over-
all Economic Development Programs (OEDP's), masterplans, industrial develop-.
-mentagencies, regional .planning agencies, o r local business groups. Such
plans and organizations can b(@ very valuable in evaluating new development.
Communities with high un(!mployment or underemployment may.seek job e 3v.-
panBion that will match.the skills of residents. Some communities seek job
expansion to improve their fi;3cal structure, attracting "tax.ratables," such
as industry and commercial activities. Other communities T@ay intentionally
s.hun-job growth, wishing to preserve their small-town image.
b.. Diversification of Job Types. Diversification can sometimes improve
Job stability in a commmity,,buffering it against theeffects of cyclical Un-
employment. Herr, too, it is difficult to generalize about.the desirability'
of diversification. A tourist town, for example, deriving its,im.age from
that,one industry, may choose to risk,per-iodic bad times in.order to main-

tain its character.
c.: Community Balance Between Peopleand Jobs. Population growth from
residential development Adds to the labor force but does..not..itself support
-4 suf,ficient number of new service,jobs to meet its job needs., Thus., if
b@asic_job growth doesn't keep pace, increased out-commuting to other. towns.
d e commut-
will occur. The community must judge if this is good or ba' Stabl*
ing patterns of specialized bedroom communities may be quite acceptable. On
the other hand, increased out-commuting, even if not criticaleconomically,
does affect people's time and energy,.the social character of the'commun.ity,
and the local tax irate. High levels of traffic may pass through some commun-
Aties on the way to jobs in other towns or the central city.., A community may
wish,to intercept some of this traffic and.reduce,,congestion,by.expanding its
own job, opportunities.

See Thomas Muller, Economic Impacts of Land Develo 9
pment, W hin'ton' D. Ci-
Urban Institute, 1976 p. 12.

107

Should a better balance between people and jobs in.a community be
sought, the@number of jobs needed can be compared with likely growth in
basic industries. For reference, covered employment:figures'from the Divi-
sion of Employment Security let you quickly identify past job growth in,.
manufacturing; past growth in tourism, government, and other basic industries

is much harder to determine.

'so 00 @M_ so- ION, VS go So

SUMMARY CHECKLIST

-Impact Prediction

NON-RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

1. Employment
no. of construction job opportunities
no. of permanent job opportunities
hiring, of locals vs. others; commuting times
job types and match with community skills and unemployment,

2. Business Opportunities
displacement of existing businesses
competition with existing businesses
strengthening existing commercial businesses
local buying and selling
provision of space forentrepreneurs

3. Other Effects
--,export of goods; import substitution
diversification
pollution; congestion; inducement of population growth

.RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

1. Number of construction job opportunities

2. Second homes as import industry,

I. Impact on retail sales in community

4. Employment
no. of job seekers
no of service jobs supported by population
no: of export- iobs for "balance"

109,

CHAPTER 6

SOCIAL INPACTS ...

INTRODUCTION
Social impacts of'development decisions are often very imppitani to
community residents but are not often explicitly dealt with in impAct
analyses- This'chapter outlines how new development may affect community
character by changing the type and,number of residents, the adequacy of
their housing, the style and structure of local government, and community
amenities. Other social impacts are not considered in this chapter be-
cause they are'.discussed in other chapters (e.g. , social consequences of
traffic and jobs, visual qualities, and perceived.image of the, communIty) or
are very hard to evaluate (e.g.:,'effects oti sociability, privacy,'secur ty-
crimeT.
Social issues. are often ignored in impact studies because they are hard
to quantify, touch on.strong political ar..d emotional feelings, raise sensi-
tive legal issues, are clouded by misconi@eptions, -ind.may not by themselves
provide,sufficient grounds for public decision. Despite these difficulties
it is still valuab le to cconsider-social impActs since:
Socia impacts may be 'residents" major concerns about proposed.
velopment, although official debate centers on, say, fiscal or traffic im-

pacts;,.
Failure to bring:thdse concerns cut in the open makes it harder to
resolve conflicts;
Analysis can suggest ways in which the proposal could be-changed so.
that its social impacts would be more beneficial;
Discussion can help prepare the community for impending-change,
easing the transition JfL a maj or developuent is built.

For discussion of such issues, see Schaenman and Muller, Measuring Impacts
of Land Development. Be skeptical of easy conclusions on these impacts;
people often have strong prejudices. Foradditional discussion of such
issues as recreational.patterns, shopping opportunities, pedestrian mobility,
and'
personal safety and privacy, also see Kathleen Christensen, Social
IpMacts of Land Devedopment, Urban Institute', Washington, b.t'., 1916'.

110 7

'Public Discussion

it is useful to provide an organized opportunity for 4iscussing,social
'concerns.,,first thinking through the likely consequences'of a proposal, and
then evaluating them as objectively as possible, suggesting which hopes or
@fears may be reasonable and which may be unwarranted. Finally, appropriate
actions by the community and the developer would be determined. Arela-
'tively,-simple approach is often best, involving:
1. Early citizen input,to identify themost critical concerns (see
page 8
2. Reference to community needs and resources which have already been
identified and detailed by a Master Plan; by response (in Massachusetts) to
the-State Growth Policy Questionnaire; by specific'local agencies such as a,
Town,Government Study Committee, Historic District.Commission, Housing Auth-
ority;.by the regional planning agency 'and State Department of Community
Affairs; and by other organizations such as a housing action group or civic

association;
3. In some cases, review of similar developments which have been built

in the community or region;
.4.11 In a limited number of,cases, conducting surveys of citizen atti-,
tudes':and perceptions, although these are often costly, [email protected], and
can easily produce distorted resultsi

General AsseSBment Issues

Following are some important considerations in evaluating social imr..@

pacts..
ither good or bad, depend-
Value Judgments. Many social impacts may. be e
ing onone's point of view. A more diverse population, for example, may be
*valued by'some, feared by others. Analysis should.firpt try to make clei.r'
the extent' of change due to a new development (of tenL less, change than suf-

T
Some investigators place considerable emphasis on surveys. For@example,
people living near apartments have been surveyed to-determinesocial inter-
actilons,,,feelings towards new residents, and changes in their activity pz:17
terns. See New Jersey County andMunicipal Government Study Commission,
Housing &:Suburbs: Fiscal and Social Impact of Multi-Family Development,
October 1974; Philip Schaenman and Thomas Muller, Measuring L%Vacts of Land
Development, Urban Institute, 1974; Kathleen Christensen,. Social Impacts of
Land Deve.14ment,- op.cit.

-III-

porters or opponents had assumed). Then,citizens and officials can evalu-
ate whether that change is positive or negative,and consider way to improve
negative impacts.
Area Affected. Consider impacts on both the entire communit
housing supply, form of government) and the immediate neighborhood. Propos-
als can dramatically affect neighborhood charcter, but have little effect on
the rest of the community. New development often has the greatest impact on
current residents who live within earshot or view, live on streets providing
access to the development, or will use the same shops, parks, or schools as
occupants of the new development.
Will Change Happen Anyway? Many communities don't want to change.
Major development proposals highlight change and are often blamed for all
the effects of growth on a community. Some growth and change may be inevit-
able, however, whether or not the development in question is approved. In
retrospect, for example, few individual residential,developments have by
themselves increased community population above what it would otherwise have
been, since population is usually determined by more basic social and eco-
nomic forces. Therefore:
1. Consider likely changes in the community's social character if the
propsal is rejected (through other new developments on and off the site,
turnover of residents in existing units, etc.);
2. Determine what difference a decision to approve a proposal is
likely to have compared to a decision not to approve it. Use a consistent
time frame for the comparison; compare what the community might be like in,
say ten years' time if the proposal is approved with what it might be like
in ten years in the proposal is not approved-- don't compare it with what-
the community is like today.
Frequently, attention should focus not on growth per se,but on the
particular location,design, and timing of, that growth. Consideration of
these issues will also help suggest ways to mitigate negative impacts,'

into the,
Assimilation. Will it be easy to assimilate new dev elopment
community? This is often the fundamental question. The answer greatly
depends on the proposed development's:
1. Scale, compared to existing development nearby; small projects are
usually less disruptive visually and socially;

112

2. Phasing; slower growth is less disruptive;

3. Balance; a project with both.single-family homes and apartments
produces less dramatic change on a single-family neighborhood than.an all-
apartment -project would;
4. Separation from the community; sometimes buffers ate used to' sep&-
rate a project from its neighbors', but often people are more.concerned that
two separate communities@might be created., Social segregation between the
proposal and neighbors can be reduced by: (a) building.the development in
small components (e.g., extending,.not interrupting, the existing street
pattern); 0) marketing the development so that it will include,.some old
community residents (not only newcomers); (c) providing facilities (e.g.,
playgrounds)@which will,be used jointly by project residents and the general.
public.

Outlined. below are.potential social impacts on population, housing,
'local government style and structure, and community amenities.

POPULATION

Development affects the number and.type.of people who live, work, shop
in! or visit the community. New dwellings have the greatest impact and are
.''discussed'below. Population impacts.may also be important in' other situa-
tions, however. Some proposals would displace existing residents from the
Site (Perhaps forcing them to move out of-the community). Maj o r factories.
and' other new employers may increase local housing demand,, indirectly in-
creasing population. College dormitories, hdspitals,@nursing homes and
other live-in institutions have mahy of the same population characteristics'
as residences. Hotels, guest houses and campgrounds also.increase.popula-
tion, at'least temporarily. Finally, some non-residentialJacilities can

Some communities recognize these similarities in their regulations. The
following.is from the Greenfield, Mass., zoning bylaw:
"Each two guest units in a motel or hotel, four beds in..a hospital,
nursing home, or convalescent home, or accommodations for four per-
sons in a boarding or guest house or dormitory or other, group living
arrimgement.shall be considered equivalent to 'a dwelling unit in
calculating required lotarea."

113

result in tremendous but sporadic influxes of population. For example,
sports and exhibition arenas, entertainment centers, and recreation facili-
ties can attract large numbers of people for short periods of time, placing
tremendous burdens on An area's, services and facilities, and the tran-
quility of its inhabitants.
Several factors should be considered in evaluating population impacts.
of new residences.

Number of Residents
a. Estimate for a Specific Development. The,population which a de-
velopment will initially contain is easily approximated:

Number of single-family dwellings x 4.0 =single-family residents
Number of seasonally-occupied single-family dwellings x 5.0= seasonal
residents
Number of multi- family, units x 2.5= multi-family residents.
Number of units reserved for the elderly x 1.5= residents of, housing
for elderly
Table 6-1 provides some additional refinements.
To get a sense of scale, compare the population contained in the pro-
posed development with the community's total population increase during the,
last decade (e. g:. 1975 state census minus 1965 state census;never mix U.S.
and state census figures since they define residence in different ways)
The hard but important question whether proposal population represents
a net increase over what would otherwise occur in the community. Is there
some reason to believe that this proposal can, by itself,, substantially
alter the community's future population? Will the project serve a hitherto
untapped market through unique design or marketing strategy? Does this. de--
velopment have some special advantage others have lacked, such as better
financing, an extraordinary site, or a special regulatory exemption? Unless

1Alternatively, one can use data on size household from the 1970 U.S.
Census,. General Population Characteristics. Increase the persons per
household reported there for the community by 1 person per unit for.
single-family dwellings, since new homes usually have more people than
average.

l14

TABLE 6-1

PERSONS PER NEW UNIT

No. of Rutgers Common
Bedrooms Study Ranges

,High-rise.apartment average 12.0 1'. 2 2.5
(studio)
1 1.8
2. 2.5

Garden apartment average 2.2 1.8 3.0
1 1.9
2 2.8

Townhouse average 3.1 2.1 4.0
2* 2.7
3.4.
4 3.7'

Single-family home average 3.5 3.2 4.5
3 3.3
4 3.7

b
Seasonal.dwelling 4.1
6.1

Hotel, motel room' .:2

Campsite 4

'May be'. lower for retirement dwellings, higher for subsidized units.
b
range, high for Cape, Islands,and Berkshires, low elsewhere.

Sources: Sternlieb and Burchell, "The Numbers Game: Forecasting Household
Size," Urban Land,, January.1974 (Rutgers Study); Herr Associates
estimates.

115

some answers are, "yes," it is unlikely that the proposal would substantially
n above what it would otherwise be
increase the community's, future populatio
(as a result of development on other sites).
One can also estimate proposal population over time. The number Of
people in each single-family home usually decreases over time (children grow

up and move away). Apartments do not lose population, perhaps even increase
in population slightly over time. Seasonally-occupied units may be-converted
to year-round use (a rule-of-thumb is that about 10% of such units are con-
verted each year).

b. Estimate, for Rezoning an Area. Population consequences of rezoning,
are estimated differently.
1. Calculate the theoretical saturation population in the area to
be rezoned for both present and proposed zoning: total available land in
the area to be rezoned(excluding developed and,undevelopable land) minus,
15% for streets,and waste, divided by the required lot area per dwelling-
unit equals,the saturation number of dwelling units; multiplying that by
population per dwelling unit gives saturation population.

.85 x (available developable land) persons per Saturation
x
Lot area per dwelling unit dwelling unit Population

2. Estimate,the probability of development actually occurring. by
whatever time,horizon you choose. For example, current zoning may require
10,000 square foot lots, and the land is under pressure for development,
giving something like a 90% probability of development within ten years.
Rezoning to 40,000 square foot lots might reduce the probability of.develop-
ment within, that time period precipitously,say to 50%.

3. Multiply the saturation population by the probability of de-
velopment for both present,andproposed zoning to get the expected,popula-

tions at the time horizon.
To illustrate, suppose 1,000 buildable acres are proposed for rezoning
from 10,000 sq.ft. single-family lots to 20,000 sq.ft. lots.

olitan Area. (excluding. Boston itself), single-
In 1970 in the. Boston Metrop
family dwellings less than 10 years old averaged 4.1 persons per unit,
those more than 10 years old averaged 3.0 persons per unit.

116

0
'85'x (1,000 acres x 43,560 sq.ft./acr
. @-)- x 4.0 persons per dwelling unit
10,000 sq.ft. per dwelling unit

14,800 persons at saturation under present zoning.

0.85 (1,000 acres x 43,560sq.ft./acre) x 4.0 persons per dwelling unit-.
20,000 sq.ft. per dwelling unit

7,400 persons at saturation under proposed zoning.

Probability of development within ten, years under current zoning is judged

to be 0.8.

0.8 x 14,000 12,000 "expected" ten year population, current zoning.

Probability of development within ten years, under proposed zoning is judged
to be;O.-5.

0.5 x 7,400 4,000 "expected" ten year population, proposed zoning.

Impact 4,000 8,000 persons reduction.

Growth Rate
Often the rate of population growth has a greater iimpact,,on'the commun-
ity'than-has the absolute amount,of change.. There is a tremendous difference
iri"impAct if several.hundred new residences are built and 'Occupied in a one-
.or two-year period than if the same number of units are developed over a
decade. If, as is too often the case, the community is unprepared, sudden
change may create severe disruptions in normal activity-.patterns, place
severe.'strains on facilities and services, and make the processes..of adjust-.
ment much more difficult. Generally, as the rate of growth increases the
pace of change of all types will increase..
Growth rate for residential projects can be analyzed as follows:
a. Get an estimate from the developer of the anticipated,rate of oc
cupancy of lots or units.
bl.' Test that against "reasonable" expectations. Considerations might
include the follow. Lng:
-.Is.there or can there be a limit on occupancy'rate,imposed under
zoning? _If so, that establishes an upper limit of expectation..

117

Is the anticipated number of units per year large in relation
to the average town-wide total number of dwelling units authorized on
building permits in recent years (data available from the Building Inspec-
tor, annual reports, Or the State Building Code Commission inthe Massachu-
setts Department of Community Affairs). If it is, is there some reason to
believe that this proposal will, by itself, alter the town' s rate of growth
(see page 115)?
Is the anticipated number of units per year small in relation to
the total number approved? Again, a warning flag should be raised since
most developers will try to move their entire development as rapidly as the
market allows. Is the anticipated development rate as high as the market,
or regulation will allow? If not, then the anticipation isn't normally
credible.

Some communities are now regulating growth rate by requiring that cer-
tain projects phased over a period of several years. This can help ease
community change due to the proposal. Greenfield, Bourne, Tisbury and Han-
over are examples in Massachusetts.

Population Origin

Where will new residents come from? If most of,the residents of new
housing now live in the community or in its vicinity, the degree of social
change is likely to be much less than if residents are strangers to the
To estimAte place of origin:
area.

a. Ask the developer. For projects of any size, he should have made
analyses of expectations, and they're probably as good a projection as can
be made.
b. Compare the housing being offered to local housing needs. Any of
the following probably indicate the likelihood of many newcomers:
--A large number of units per year in relation to previous town-
wide rates of development;
--Units with costs higher or lower than the norm in the community;
-family units in a predominantly single-family community.
Multi

Population Composition

but
Who will the development serve? This is often the most sensitive.
ue in the whole range of possible development,im-
least openly discussed iss

118

pacts. The questions "who will live here?','and "will they be. like us!" are
often on many minds but rarely get asked in public. This subject is fraught
with misconceptions. A,New Jersey study comparing prevailing community at-
titudes about apartment dwellers (e.g., their ihcomet.education, employment,
and political leanings) found that the preconceived notions, differed drama-
tically from the actual characteristics. A survey in Burlington revealed
that people in single-family npighborhoods abutting apartment developments
typically had a more favorable attitude toward apartments and their inhabi-
tants than did community residents generally.
Key factors in considering population composition-may include race/
ethnicity, income, occupation,.age, tenure and stability,of new residents.
The service demands, activity patterns, and liftstyles of the residents will
be-far different if the tenants of, say, a garden apartment complexare pri-
marily elderly than if they are college students. Another,..@mportant consid-
2
eration is the number of children in the development. This has.important
so.cial,,,as well as fiscal, consequences. It is often thr6ugh.their children
that adults meet and get to know one another. Children-also@mean more neigh-
borhood activity and noise.
Single-family homes usually have larger households and more children
3
than multi-family units. However, these differences may be,.diminishing as
the'inc're.asing price.of single-family homes places them beyond the reach of
many houf;eholds.
Tib,.e 6-2 compares household characteristics for relatively new and
older unLts in the Boston region (excluding Boston.itself),in 1970. Such.
differences in occupants between new and old units can still generally be_
expecte6, although the actual numbers have of course changeo,,,and although,
there are.many local exceptions to the general pattern.
In general, occupants of new.housing tend to [email protected]'..educated, wealth-
ier,.and-live in more expensive units than occupants'of older housing. The

State of.New Jersey County & Municipal Government Study Commission, Housing
and Suburbs: Fiscal and Social Impact cf Multi-Family-Development, 1974.

2-
See page 71 for estimating the number of children in. a new development.

3
New Jersey, Housing and Suburbs, op.cit.

119

occupants of new single-family homes also tend to be younger and dominantly
in their middle years. Occupants of new multi-family units ten to be
either young or old, not middle-aged, and relatively little different in age
from occupants of older multi-family units. Used with judgment,these COM-
parisons can help in estimating likely differences between occupants of pro-
posed units and the rest of the community population.
Compare likely population characteristics of the proposed development
with recent trends. Information on the community's current population char-
acteristics may be obtained from local and regional planning studies, hous-
ing interest groups, and area realtors.
For a new development, one can estimate characteristics of future resi-
dents based on (a) surveys of similar recent developments,(b)rough guides,
such as Table 6-2, (c) the developer's marketing plans, and(d)the proposed
price or rent levels, fromwhich one can infer income of the occupants. For
single-family homes, annual family income is often about 40% Of the selling
price. Family, income may be about 4 times the annual rent in subsidized
apartments, 5 to 8 times the rent in medium-priced units, and 10 times the
rent in luxury units.

HOUSING IMPACTS

When considering housing impacts, two basic questions should be ad-
dressed. First, how will the proposal affect the range of housing choice in
the community? Second, what will be the implications for critical housing
needs 'of people who presently lack adequate housing? Community housing in-
formation is usually well-documented. Sources of information include local
and regional planning studies., the 1970 U.S. Census of Housing, local hous-
ing authorities, local realtors, and housing interest groups. Any community
which has applied for a Community Development Block Grant (from HUD)should
have prepared a Housing Assistance Plan including a variety of information
useful in thinking about local housing issues.

Housing Supply
Development can affect housing choice in a number of ways., Does the
proposal:

120

TABLE 6-2
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS, NEW AND OLD DWELLINGS
(BOSTON SMSA BUT NOT IN BOSTON CITY, 1970)

a b
New Units Old Units

Persons per owner-occupied unit 4.1 3.0
Persons per renter-occupied unit 1.8 2.3

Households.with children under 18 52% 42%
Years of school completed
Owner-occupied 13.4 12.7
1 4
Renter-occupied 2.

Income,
Owner-occupied, $i5,000 $12,400
Renter-occupied 8,700 $ 7,500

House. value $31,600 $24,500

Gross-rent $ 178 136

Age o f household head, all units
Under- 25 5%
25-29 14% 9%
30@34 14% @9%
@35-44 .3i%
45-64 30% 42%
65+. 6% 14%

Age*. of household head, owrier-occupied
Under 25 1% 1%
2@-29 9% 5%
15% @8%
35-44- 39%.
45"64 33%., 47%
3%: 16%

Age of household head, renter-occupied
Under 25 16% 15%
25-21 28% 19%
30-34 11% 10%.
35-44 10% 16%
45-64'" 22% 30%
65+ 1U*. 1%

aUhits added by construction during the sixties.
b
-Units existing in 19.60.

Source: Computed from Table 2, 1970,densus of Housing, tomponents.of In-
ventory Change, Boston SMSA, Final Report HC(4)-3.

121

a. Broaden the mix of housing in the community (e..g., single-family
and multi-family, year-round and seasonal, owner- and renter-occupied)?
The 1970 U.S. Census of Housing has information on.existinghousing formost

communities.

b. 'Broaden the price raage of housing in the community? Note, how-,
ever, that units priced beyond the means of current residents will serve

outsiders.

c. Involve demolition of housing on the site?
d. Lead to demolition of housing nearby? A shopping center,* for ex-
ample,. may induce conversion of nearby residential properties to commercial

use.

e. Increase demand for existing housing, so that,current residents are
displaced by higher-income people? This is sometimes an indirect,effect of
major employers, universities, luxury housing, and recreational facilities.

It is also useful to ask if the proposal is similar,, in price and amen-
ities, to"Other housing in the.community or nearby communities. If similar
housing has a high vacancy rate, the proposal (1) probably doesn't:have.an
important impact.on.local housing choice, and (2) may reduce the value of
existing housing through over-building.

Housing Need
How will the Proposal affect current residents who live in subst andard
'housing or pay a disproportionate share of their income for rentT I New de-
velopment can Affect housing needs in several ways:,
a. By.displacing low.and moderate-income families (especially large
families) and elderly.residents, who may have few alternatives in the local
housing market unless adequate relocation is provided.
b. By providing low-cost housing for low and moderate-income people.
With rising housing costs, new low-cost housing may only mean mobile homes

1 Massachusetts Department of Community Affairs has estimated the number of
people in substandard housing and those paying more than 25% of their
income'for rent in,each community. See Table 7 of the D.C.A. Housing
Needs Study., Compare their estimate with other local housing data.

122

or subsidized units. 1 Information concerning (1) whether or not any units
will be subsidized, (2) how the anticipated prices/rents compare to what
people living in the community can afford, and (3) thenumber of bedrooms
(i.e., can large families be accommodated) will be helpful-in.determining
whether a development will help meet the needs of low and moderate income
people...
c. By affecting the community's status under the Chapter 774 "anti-
snob zoning it program. New subsidizedo evelopment may exempt the community
from state override of local regulati 2 Projects approved the the cour-
munity may thus prevent less sensitive'development over which the community
would not have a final say.
The community's overall land use policy can facilitate provision of
low-moderate income housing in new developments. First, it can insure that
sufficient:land is available for multi-family housing, either.explicitly
zoning land for that use, or allowing that use through special permit or
:other flexible devices on an ample number of sites, or throug4.special pur-
pose land banking. Second, it can remove cost-creating restrictions in its
zoning and subdivision regulations such as.excessive floor area requirements
or demands for granite curbing, etc. Third, it can publicize a policy wel-
coming its' fair share of low-middle income housing and outlining the steps
for obtaining approval for such proposals.. If the need is great, it can go
further. The*.public action of granting a variance, or rezoning land from
single--afamily to multi-family use often bestows financial benefits to de-
velopers. In return for such a land use change, a community might mandate
that a minimum percent of units be provided for low-moderate income families.
Incentives such as density bonuses or other relaxations of -regulatory stan-
dards can,also stimulate developers to provide a broader h1o
@@sing mix for
all. income. groups.,

Subsidized housing may include public housing constructed by a local hous-
ing,authority with subsidies from D.C.A., a mixed-income development under
the Massa6husetts-Housing Finance Agency, or subsidized rents in some or,
all units of an apartment complex (through Federal "Section 8" assistance).
2Provisions are'complex (Sections 21-23, Ch. 40B,.Mas6. Gen..Laws) .but
the State i1ousing Appeals Board can generally overturn a local rejection of
subiidized housing if less than 10% of the community's existing housing
supply. is subsidized.

-123-

LOCAL GOVERNMENT

As communities grow, so too do their governments. Local government
growth often means changes in, structure, style of operations, range of gov-
ernmental services, and costs. Only rarely will a single development force
a change in the structure of local government. The cumulative effects of
several developments may be significant, however. Increased popuLation may
eventually lead to;
a. Ashift from open to representative town meeting. Communities,over
15,000 population are likely to have representative government (Table 6-3).
Note, however, that local preferences can delay that change: three Massachu-
setts towns over 30,000 population still have open town meetings.
b. A shift from part-tire lay administrators to full-time professionals
(executive assistants, town and city managers). The majority of communities
over 20,000 population have professional administrators (Table 6-3).
Increased bureaucracy. As government organizations grow they become
more formal and compartmentalized. Citizens have less access to officials.
to sit down together and work out p oblems in-
It becomes harder for people r
formally on a first name basis.
d. Public provisions of services which could not have been supported
in a'smaller community, such as public sewerage, solid waste collection,.
major libraries, swimming pooLs, tennis courts, skating rinks.
e. Transfer of political power from "oldtimers" to "newcomers". New
residents are, often very politically active and involved in local govern-
2
ment. New, residents may have different values and different preferences
for local spending.

AMENITIES
New development can affect community amenities in a number of ways.
Look for the following:
a. Provision of On-Site Services and Facilities for the General Public.
A shopping center may greatly increase the variety of stores easily accessi-

See "Fiscal Impacts," page 63

2
New Jersey, Housing and Suburbs, op.cit.

TABLE 6-3

GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE 1975

--of municipalities-with:
Population Nurbber 7. of % of
1915 Municipalities Open TMa Rep TMa Councilb Manager or E

0- 5,000 141 100 0 0
5-10,000 63 95 3 :2 22
10-15,000 44 89 11 32
15-20,000 29 55 31 14 45
20-25,000 15 33 60 7 73
25@30,000 15 .13 67 20 73
30-35,000 :11 18 -37 45 55
35-40,000 8 12 25- 63 .25
40-60,000 12 0 25 75 .17

aTM Town Meeting

b
council City or Town Council

Sources: Massachusetts 1975 State Census; -Massachusetts League of Cities and Towns, Munic
Directory, 1975-1976.

125

ble to local residents. Proposals involving entertainment, recreation, res-
taurant.s, professional services, specialty shops, hospitals can make a com-
munity a more convenient and rewarding place to live.
Some res idential-developments also provide amenitiOs for the- general
public,,,such as golf courses, ski facilities, meeting halls, trails, and
preserved open space. Density bonuses can be granted to reward-and encourage
such amenities@
b. Indi Ir&ct Demand for Facilities, Services and Or,g@niiati6ns. Ai.a
community grows it becomes able to support a much wider variety of activities.
New development (residences, universities, etc.) may increase local popula--
tion.enough to support specialized shops, services, religious, social, and
fraternal organizations. New development may also support new,public ser-
vices 'arid,fadilities such as new libraries and recreational facilities.
'Effect on @@isting Amenities. Proposed development-may belocated
in the vicinity o.f.(or atop) cherished community assets: woods, wetlands,
meadows, cliffs historic buildings and areas, 2 a cherished mini-.park.or
country store. These amenities may be an important element in the character
of the community.. Loss or damage to them can be an importantcost of,new
development. Pedestrian or vehicular access to amenities may-also be dis-
rupted. Change in or,loss of routes that residents have beenl.ong.accus-
tome.d1to and.,-.may even cherish should be recognized as costs. Note,,howe Ver,
that such areas or paths might be threatened by development ever if the pro-
posalin ques tion is turned down.
Sensitive design is often the key for dealing with such araas. -Clus-
ter de@relopment, for example, may allow natural -features to be preserved for
open space. The alternative may be a large-lot subdivision covering the
entire site and destroying'all its natural features. (See Chapter 7.,
"Visual Impacts.")

See the new Massachusetts Zoning Act, Chapter 40A, Section 9.

Valuable natural areas are often identified in local conservation plans.
Some historic buildingsi sites, and landmarks have been identified by the
National Register of Historic Places, local and regional historic: commis-
sions, the Massachusetts Historical Commission, and private organizations
such asthe Trustees of-Reservations.

126

CHAPTER 7

VISUAL IMPACTS

INTRODUCTION

What Are'Visual,Impacts?
Community visual qualities may be significantly impacted by large-scale.
..developments such'as PUD's,.large subdivisions, multi-family housing, shop-
ping centers, or industrial parks Land use regulatory decisions such as
co rcial or multi-fami.ly rezonings may also strongly affect the visual
environment through gradual, 'Cumulative shaping of larger areas, even though
indivi dual developments within these'areas may have little impact alone.
What are visual impacts? Common concerns are that a proposed devel)p-
ment will displace man-made landmarks or unique natural features, damage
views, or harm a community's overall imageor attractiveness. Substantial
alteration of the natural environment by removing trees or changing existing
topography; nonconformity with existing built and natural contexts; visual
.obtrusiveness and scale disruption all affect community appearance. Thought-
ful'de'velopment can also bring about positive visual impacts by giving a new
image to, a community focal spot or by reinforcing@an existing.pQ8itive
image.through respect for scale and sensitive signage,or landscaping.
Developments which are very large, visually promi .nent, or, very differ-
ent from,nearby areas may greatly affect the perception of the,community by
residents and outsiders. Such image changes are important in at least three
ways. They af fect how residents feel about the community., This.,in turn
affects their future investments: how likely they are to improve and main-
tain their properties, how likely they are to move elsewhere. Finally, the
community,image influences outsiders who might come there.to visit,,to live,

or to establish businesses.
Major new.development can also alter a community's image to such an
extent. that the development comes to symbolize the community. Examples in
Massachusetts include the Patriots' Stadium in.Fokboro', recent apartment
complexes in Framingham, the New Seabury development in Mashpee, Yankee
Atomic in Rowe, and the University of Mas8achusetts,at, Amherst.
'This chapter raises general process issues and also suggests broadly

127

.applicable substantive categories by w1-Lich to structure visual impact.evlaltr-

a
n
tion.

RecoE2ition of the Issue
Citizen involvement and enthusiasm are readily mobilized around visual
impact issues. One recent study of newspaper reports about rezonings, which -00
took place in the course of one year in the New York City) Washington, .@D.,C

and San Francisco areas showed that visual concerns were raised.far more

frequently than any other issue in development reviews, twice as often as
fiscal impacts and growth-trends, the runners-up.
Traditional,zoning and subdivision regulations have strongly affected
the visual environment though aesthetics have not, at least openly, been
thei-r,primary,aim. Recently, state legislatures and.the courts have dealt
explicitly with visual concerns. The newly adopted Zoning Act in Massac'hu-
setts, for example, allows towns to :--egulate land use for the-purp6se of
2
developing their natural, scenic and aesthetic qualities.
Increasingly, the,courts'are recognizing visual quality as a" proper
area of public concern and exercise of policy power. The weight'givento
visual. considerations.differs from s-,.ate to,state.' In John Donnelly & Sons
v. Outdoor Adver Itisi@ kg':. Bo ard3the Ma:isachusetts Supreme Court he ld: fhA@E
1.1aesth6tics alone may justify the exercise of the'police power." The broad
language of this opinion can beinterpreted as a Judicial affirmation of'
the visual environment's role.in enha,ncing the public's general welfarei.
There ate limits, however, to what a community may do. Regulation,may not
be arbitrary or capricious. It.must be reasonably related to al.legitimate
public purpose and cannot be used as an-obstructional. device tolimit or
slow growth. It may notrestrict an individual's use of his property so
'greatly as to constitute a taking. Clear standards must be established and
due process afforded all parties. Controls must apply equally to similarly
situated parcels.

Philip S. Schaenman, Using an I!Ract Measurement System to Evaluate Land
DevelUment, Urban Institute, 1976, p. 17.,
2
Section 2A, Ch. 808, Acts of 1975, Massachusetts.
3339-N.E. 2d 709.

128

The issue need not be whose tastes will be imposed upon whom. Subjec-
@.tive judgment will, of course, play a role as it does in the assessment of
any of the impacts discussed in this manual. But visual concerns can be
stated clearly. and applied nonarbitrarily. They can.focus'on matters beyond
taste, on such basic issues as legible signage, sunlight, and'the preserva-
tion of-important views.

STEPS IN VISUALINPACT,ANALYSIS
The following steps can help structure the impact'analysis.process.

1 Formulate a Set of IpMact Measures in the Form of a Checklist
.The checklist,.against which to review development proposals, will vary
from community to community reflecting local goals. and concerns... Its use.
helps assure consistencyin impact evaluation from one project to the next.
It,can structure the process so. that major impacts are not overlooked and
most effort can be focussed on the selected important impact categories. An,
illustrative checklist is on page 145 . The community may-benefit by pre-
arranging for technical assistance.to formulate the checkli st and to help
laterwith periodic impact assessments (see Step 2).

.2.' Decide Who Will Do the Analysis
First, the community must obtain information on whichto base a visual
impact-dvaluation. If a specific development is proposed.,its:designer
might be. required to.provide design information, graphic and written, as
part of special.permit, site plan review, or subdivision submission require-
ments for major proposals. He might be asked to document his,consideration
of selected issues of community concern by.filling out sePtions.of a pre-.
arranged,,:impact checklist.

a
A town must then decide what levelof technical ssi,stanqe it wants,
in th e:detailed analysis and evaluation of important proposals. Adesign
professional with experience in similar coununities may provide insight
into issues the community might otherwise cverlook, can structure study
efforts by others, suggest design modifications, and summarize findings* and
recommendations. On the other hand, if nev to the,scene, he might not fully
unders- tand the many nuances of residents' values and the visual qualities of

-129-

that community Review by panels of laymen offers the benefits of community.
involvement and consensus building as well as intimate knowledge of the con-
text. But theirconcern and experience may be limited to the immediate con-
text. They may have an overly conservative tendency to preserve the staitus
quo, or to settle for established, but mediocre, "good taste." Without clear
standards, their findings may appear arbitrary. Sustaining such an effort
also requires an enormous commitment of time and energy. Any combination of
approaches may be appropriate.

3. Assess How Critical the Proposal's Site Is
a. Is the site visually prominent, seen by many people or from many
directions? In some cases, development,even if large, may not be very visi-
ble because of its natural siting or location, its elevation, landscaping,
and 'screening. It may therefore have minimal impact. Conversely, location
can make even a small development highly prominent.
b. Is it near a landmark, man-made or natural? Will the landmark be
overpowered or its viisibility or access affected?
c. Is the location symbolically significant? For example, is it at a
town's gateway? Does it, have some special community significance?
d. Is the area one of clearly established design precedent, or is the,
visual quality largely ambiguous? Examples of places with established visual
precedent are historic areas or sections of a town where, over time, every
house has maintained similar fencing,. landscaping or materials whose overall,
visual effect is highly valued and very sensitive to disruption..

4. Screen Proposals Against the Checklist
All major proposals, especially if they have been judged to lie on cri-
tical sites as defined in the third step, should be screened. A quick ini-
tial screening will usually isolate major impacts,if any,and many others
will immediately drop oUt of consideration,.

5. Analyze and Evaluate MaJor Impacts
Simulations in the form of scale models, eye-level sketches and,photo-
graphs will be extremely useful if not essential for analysis. This informa-
tion can often be provided by the developer as called for in Step 2. Impacts

130

should be described as explicitly as possible; if they can't be quantified,
they should at least be. ranked in importance with other impacts.

@6. Identify Alternatives to Mitigate Negative Impacts'
A development's features may be modified to lessen an'ticipated'negative
impacts. Thus a large parking lot might be landscaped and/or graded so that
its elevation obscuresits extent.

KEY ISS UE S

Several issues that will emerge in ca abo
rrying out the ve steps are
.briefly addressed below.

The Checklist
Impact checklists, in the form of a list of '"don'ts," often tend to
mindlessly enshrine and promote the status quo. In a historic area,,this
approach. might be entirely appropriate. On the whole, however, visual imr-
pact evaluation should not.serve merely to avoid no4ious development.or just
to,insure.its adequacy. Evaluation can form the basis for actively creating
benefits and strengthening a sought-after image for a.co=unity. For ex.-
ample, a development's lighting,should be assessed.not only to see if it.
will cause glare, but also to see if its color might help produce a "special
place" quality.

The choice of eleme@nts in the checklist must be tuned to the context

of the community. The visual qualities which are most important.vary from
place to place; few are universally significant. In urban contexts, more
emphasis.might be given to the compatibility of structures with one another
than in.rural areas where more concern migt be on.the fit with.nature.
(Even'.here exceptions will abound.) Withir rural areas, a hilly.town with
lakes. might develop a checklist whose details differ from [email protected]

town with flat terrain.

During both the formulation of a ctecklist and the.,.screening of pro-
posals, citizen participation can be extretely useful in ensuring that a
broad range of community values are reflected in impact analysis. Visual.
impacts often arouse controversy. What-is of little concein'to some popu7-
lation subgroups may impact others greatly.

-131-
'Or

S ub Je ct Scope
Though this manual's emphasis has been on the evaluation of
private
development's impacts, the visual impacts of public action on publicly owned
land and roads should also be assessed. A new road alignment or plan for a
public-play lot can have great impact, both positive and negative.
Many people, when.evaluating the visual impact of development, con-
sider Architectural "style" to be of foremost importance.. In many cases
style may not be the most productive element to assess. A much more b asic
impact on the visual environment usually results from siting relationships
and the treatment of the landscape.

Data and Measurement
Visual impacts are often considered "soft" and very difficult to
quantify. Descriptive, qualitative assessments are appropriate in many cases
and may be stated explicitly, if not numerically,. In some cases, quAntita,
tive measurements are possible, as in plotting cones of vision from impor-
tant lookouts or counting the number of residents affected by blocked Views.
Confidence in assessments may be increased by utilizing multiple
measures of impact perception. Citizen survey results might be compared
with impressions obtained in informal discussions, in public hearings and
from assessments of similar developments in neighboring communities.
Often, data by which to assess impact is vague or, incomplete. One
may, for example, be evaluating potential visual impacts of a proposed com-
mercial rezoning without any design drawings of A specific proposal. Some
visual impacts may be predictable regardless of the specific design. In
other caseS, the uncertainty of assessments should be acknowledged and
ranges of possible outcomes estimated.

Analysis
The geographic scope of impact analysis must be explicit. An af-
fected landmark or natural feature might be:of more than local concern. A
major edge of a development may face a neighboring municipality affecting
its visual image and producing possible secondary impacts there on,, for
example, land values or traffic. Spillover effects like these should be

considered.

132

Within the community itself, one should determine' how different pop-
ulation subgroups perceive visual impacts. Different groups have different
preferences for density, for the kinds of signs they would like to see, and
have different concerns about privacy resulting from view impacts.
Secondary impacts must also be considered. Unattractive development
might depress adjacent land values; if large, it might alter.thi@@`image of
the comunity held by outsiders, possibly affecting investment and employ-
ment opportunities. Visuallsecondary impacts may be important. Gas stations
and strip development may follow upon@the heels of a shopping center or large
commArcial rezoning. I

Man-
y visual impacts overlap and sometimes conflict with other impacts,
such as traffic, social or natural environmental impacts. Widening roads for
traffic safety might conflict with preserving rustic.character; opening up
views-with privacy; increasing lot coverage. with sewage requirements.. More
often than not, these conflicts can be resolved.
sometimes, policies with visual aims have been couched. solely in terms
of the publLc health, safety, or morals.. Thus, criticism.of strip develop-
men.t. and. chaotic.signage is expressed in tF-rms of traffic congestionand,
hazard. Ex--essive road width is described in terms of aggravating storm
..,r,unoff. Lind water salinity.. Since the legislatures and the.-courts increasingly
recognize v1sual quality as a proper-public concern, mutual, aims .6hould be,
openly stated, especially where they reinforce one. another..
It is helpful to measure development impact against a.,general city
or town visual policy in advance of major proposals and reflecting public
consensus,.on the desired "look" of the place.

'I LLUSTRAT IVE VISUAL IMPACT CHECKLIST
Ten,.broa.d impact categories are discussed it this sec -ti,on together with
examples. The checklist comprised of these elements is brief,. incomplete,
and only suggests how a community might start its own; the details would re-
flect the.community's physical and social context,@.,goals, and major-types of
eIxpected.development. Over time, new categories may beadded, others de-

leted.

Impact analysis focuses initially on predicti ng and measuring chan ges
in the visual environment caused by proposed development. 'Some changes will
be more easily quantified thanothers. One next must' assess the goodness. or

badness of the changes. Whether the changes have been quantified or not,
assessment of the benefit, or harm that results demands judgment; changes may
not necessarily be bad. Alternative design treatments to mitigate impacts,
that an analysis may deem harmful are also touched upon.

1. Visual Nuisances
Will a proposed development have elements widely Judged to be eyesores?
Very few things are intrinsically ugly. It seems feasible, however, to
select several items that are consistently Judged to have strong negative,
impacts.
-- open dumps; garbage storage areas
-- buildings or objects in need of repair

litter

Some uses may generate relative large quantities of litter; fast-
food stands, drive-ins, picnic grounds demand more litter cans and
more frequent street cleaning than other places.
parking lots.
Large asphalt surfaces can have a major negative impact. Impact may,
be reduced by moving the area out of sight behind buildings rather
than in front, by limiting the allowed size of any one area,by
landscaping, screening,selecting an alternative surface material
if possible, and by creating adifference in elevation between the
lot and adjacent land. Screening or landscaping is also easily
applicable to dumps and storage structures.

2. Displacement

What elements of cultural, architectural, scientific, or natural signi-
ficance will be lost or made less accessible? How important are they.

to whom?

individual buildings of historic or architectural significance

historic or architectural districts

Also consider what non-distinctive elements may be displaced by new devel-

opment. For example,a new building may replace an unattractive parking lot
or gas station.

134

individual unique natural features

scenic districts such as coastlines

Measures of importance might be based on such factors as historical
significance, architectural quality, rarity, scholarly interest, tourist
attraction, distance from a similar example, or co mmunity interest.
Cluster development or development rights transfermight be applied to
preserve open space around landmarks.

3. Views

Will view opportunities and quality change? From where, of what, to

whom?

Possible impacts:

blocked scenic views.

elimination or access changes to public lookouts

_
changes in valued views from,-,roads
V_iews may be preserved by changing the orientation of.long, high buil-
dings,. by lowering height, or increasing side yards. New views and lookouts
might, be (created by selective clearing of vegetation.

4. Light, Shade and Shadow

Will development changethe distribution of natural and artificial
light? If so, at what hours and in what seasons?

Natural

Development might:
--,cast shadows on open spaces including sidewalks affecting their use
--.affect vegetation which in turn alters light distribution
add or detract from needed shaded Areas

Artificial

The'nightscape.can be dramatically impacted by artificial lighto
causing
glare
or.potentially enlivening the spirit of place through choice- of

Also consider what non-distinctive elements may be displaced by-new devel-
opment. For example, a new building may rcplace an unattractive parking.
lot orIgas station.

135

color

height. and dire cti on
As one example street lighting along tree-lined roads can be given a
warm hue and mounted low to accent foliage.
Provision of trees arcades, overhangs and porches for the public all
create shade if desired.

5. visual Compatibility/Obtrusiveness With the Natural and Built Context
Will development preempt or overshadow natural features, or significantly

change the scale or texture of the built environment?

Natural Context
Development might impact:
significant natural features
topography
landscaping
A project could compete in height and attention with a unique adjacent
bluff,peak over the top of a forest silhouette, mar critical shoreline or
skyline, require major excavation on sloped sites, substantially remove
existing trees, or alter the type of vegetation native to an. area.

ro ads
Road width and alignment have strong visual impact; design can be re-
lated to the landscape type, wide roads with broad shoulders on open plains
or narrow, curved, and gently rolling roads in wooded hills.

Built Context

Impacts include departures or consistencies in:
size: coverage and height
density
dimension of unbroken wall and roof areas; pitch angles

open space pattern
distance of buildings. across roads; setbacks,
proportions of openings: doors and windows
color, texture, material
Attention to, the elements in this section will often allow contemporary
design to successfully relate to even existing historic architecture. It

136

will thus be usually unnecessary and inappropriate:to copy particular styles
in order to respect historic areas.

6. Visual Interest Related to the Scale of Movement

Will development affect the streetscape as perceived bythe pedestrian

or auto traveler?

Pedestrian Movement

Possible impacts:
transparency
Increases in the visibility of activities behind building walls often
enliven the street. As.is true.of all impact categoriesi judgment is.re-
quired to assess whether change is good or bad.. Transparency may not always
.:be@desired, as in the case of a Chinese restaurant whose interior may become

a hidden retreat.

street wall continuity
The existing pattern comprises fences ind planting, as. well as building
facades.,
sidewalk dimension; setback
room for sales, display or other activities to extend outdoors?
Shelter,.too, may,be extended via overhangs and arcades.
spatial sequence
Does development disturb a special, we@!.l-established,.-and widely per-
ceived succession of spatial experiences such as high/low, narrow/wide, or
op.en/closed sequences? Does it c'reate.one?
floorscape/paving
entry frequency and condition
Is there, for example, an existing strc,ng pattern of frequent, lighted
entries; inset doorways; canopies;.entries ilt half A level,up from.the street*
or a half-level down? If there is no current pattern '(or' even if, there.is)
should a,new one be created?
sPall-scale detailing
Examples include ornamental ironwork, J.ences and planters designed with

care.

137

VehiculAr Movement
impacts on streetscape perception by the motorist depend very, much on.
his speed. in this area has only begun but a few general issues
may be raised.
road edge definition
Roads in built-up areas often seem to spillover and merge with-parking
Ilots and even with sidewalks of driveways ar
e frequent, yielding amorphous
seas of asphalt. Road edge definition and sense of enclosure can be im-
proved through close, regular spacing of sidewalk trees and utilities, re-
ducing driveway frequency, encouraging street facade continuity, and careful
design of edge elements such its berms, planting strips, curbing and fencing.
legibility of massing
The size and form of objects on theside of the road must be tuned to,
the motorist"s speed, distance, and angle of approach,in order to be mean-
ingful to him. Very "fussy," complex massing or detailing on a building or.
sign can be frustrating to a motorist if itis large enough to catch his eye,
b ut' too small to make sense out of.

Signage

Will signage communicate wanted information clearly and concisely?
p rivate information
Does signage block views or cover up architectural features such as
cornice and floor lines? Is it on or off premises? Often, signs can be
clustered on fewer posts and clarity improved as well as attractiveness by
using as few words as possible. Street trees reduce the apparent density.
of information and resultant chaos by screening distant signs from view.,
public information
Similar issues apply to public signage. In addition, the public sector
might add or manage new, wanted visual information such as time, weathe r,
news, or transit arrivals. Public information kiosks and bulletin boards
might be established.

138

8. Public Streetscape Utilities

Will details like litter cans, Mailboxes, light-poles, power lines, and-
other public utilities accompanying private development.have significant

visual impact?
Mailboxes are sometimes the most prominent furnishing,of country roads.
Selection.of light stanchions, like the choice of lamp color, can respond to
context; the standard aluminum poles found along highways need not be applied
uniformly in every subdivision or rural road lighting mounted low on'wooden
stanchions or even integrated into a road parapet may be appropriate. Power
Jines also strongly impact the streetscape. If above ground, they may some-
times be.positioned so that they are masked by trees, although excessive tree
damage through reckless pruning often occurs in order to accom-_--d-ate the.

lines.

9.. Diversity
Does.proposed development broaden the variety of @isual experiences
available to the community?
Not all shopping centers, industrial PiLrks, or. residential subdivisions
need to,be alike. People have widely divergent visual preferences. Visual
opportunities may be expanded to satisfy such preferences:nolt by ser-ling up
a chaotic menu of varied experiences, butrather by offering consistent,
distinct environments that contrast with other environments',

ImagIe
Wi2 1, development change the overall image, oft he plac e? Will it be
special, distinctive, legible, pleasantly memorable?
it seems appropriate to consider this category a summary impact meas-
ure because all the issues discussed thus far contribute to making.or weak-
ening a-,community's image. Discussion will focus'on evaluating development
impact on five.image elements:
paths
Will development disrupt well-trodden paths, make destinations less
clearly accessible?

Kevin Lynch, Image of the City, MIT Press, 1960.

139

e
g
d e
Some edge:s,, like railroad tracks or major highways, act as' barriers.
Others@, like a "act as seams.
park strip between two housing develo.pments,.may,
Some, like waterfronts, -may be neither, but are important elemew.:s in our
mental, maps of,,places.., Will proposed development become an edge? What..kind
and to what benefit?.

districts
Will development affect the distinctiveness of an area of.,definaVle

boundaries?@

nodes
Will there be changes in major activity foci, such as public.plizas, or
main shopping street intersections? Will new activities concentrate@or di-
lute existing activity centers?
landmarks
Issues of landmark displacement were discussed earlier.@ Will develop-
ment create new landmarks?

Communities usually have an image they wish to present outside
world. Siting major development on visually prominent sites can r6infoice"
or weaken :a desired image. A town, proud to be the new home of a regional
high school, for example, and hoping it will grow into a regional hub of
activity, might seek a highly visible and accessible location for the' school.

GOING FURTHER

'Actile and Continuing Design Guidance
The impact:review process outlined so, far is a passive one: a community
reacts,, intermittently, to specific, major proposals and bases its decision
to grant a rezoning or special permit approval for these projects at least
@partially on, its analysis of visual impacts. Can a community do more?
Earlier, it was suggested.that visual impact be evaluated with respect
to an,overall,city or town visual policy formulatedin advance of major pro-
posals and reflecting consensus on the community's desired visual image.
This section raises @general issues of visualpolicy setting and implementa-

tion.

140

If an agreement on a general visual policy can be reached, tools can
then be created to implement policy recommendations to preserve, enhance or
foster selected visual qualities. These to'ols.can include direct public
action and expenditure, and the regulation of private development through
new or amended zoning and subdivision provisions. Over a period of several
decades, the cumulative impact of such traditional tools as.lot'coverage,
setback, sideyard and parking requirements can be strikingly positive or
negative. Thusi land use regulations, enforced on a continuing basis, can,
"actively guide Ithe.design of new development whether it is'small or large
and regardless of whether it is subject to detailed impact review.

Setting Policy Goals
Examples of general visual policy statements might be:..the distinc-
tiveness of different parts of town should be heightened; visual departures
from the status quo should be minimized; buildings should [email protected]
objects; buildings should define thestreet edge with,a continuous-facade;
and so forth. Whatever particular form they take, the proces,,s,of forming
visual goals might begin with the following actions:
Scenic resources such as, landmarks., scenic districts and important
views.-can be inventoried. Critical,sites can also be mapped, such as those
near existing landmarks, visually prominent, symbolically significant, or
An.areas,*bf established design precedent.
Citizens might be asked to list or map what they perceive to be the
community's visual assets and liabilities. What general areas, as well as
specificsites, do many citizens value? What paths.or journeys do they value?
Either lay citizens or .professional staff might look'to neighboring
municipalities to find prototypes of different visu ,al'environments,,some to
be,sought, some to be avoided..
Regulations affecting the visual environment can be inventoried.
What is-the currently allowable building coverage, texture'. and envelope for
various.uses and in different parts of town? What standards apply to roads,
pa;king.lots, yards, signs, etc.? Though regulations apply..,usually to.indi-
,vidual parcels, it is important to assess their cumulativeimpact when mul-
tiplied over many parcels in a given area.

141

It may often be difficult at first to clearly and explicitly discuss
visual 'goals *solely with words. The use of slide analogues.can be,extremely
helpful in rooting discussion about issues that are verbally elusive.1mages
of visual assets' and liabilities, in town and elsewhere, can be photographed.
Visual 6analogs considered potentially appropriate for a community can also be
,culled from newspapers and magazines. As visual goals begin to,-@devel6p,, they
might be-made. more explicit through simple abstract diagrams-or,patterns'.':
Key siting relationships that contribute to an overall visual image, but are
otherwise hidden eitIler in a slide or a descriptive paragraph,, might,bo.'dis-
tilled,out with the help of simple graphic diagrams. Talented professional

assistance will be invaluable in these efforts.
.The goal of these studies should not necessarilybe to arrive.,at one
.all-encompassing visual image suitable for the entire community. Different
parts of a municipality might appropriately have different 'images- that new
development can reinforce. Residential subdivision design in A,hilly, wooded
part"of town-might be quite different from that in a flat treele,ss.district
or on a visually prominent site.
@Marthavs Vineyard has such a visual. policy. After.careful analysis,
the island', has @been mapped into eight landscape types. Development :-recom-
mendations f'o-k:derisity, siting, road character, color, and materials vary
according to t.helands cape type and provide a concrete basis forexamining
compatibility of a development with its site.

Developing Tools to Isplement Policy Goals
A range o f tools is available to the community.
Direct public action and expenditure. Far too often the level of,design
of public sector facilities is poor; outdoor recreational spaces, for ex-
ample, frequently have an overabundance of chainlinkfences. The selection
@of road width and alignment, street trees, lighting fixtures, and public
signage can all be critically important. Public.buildings such as post.

C
offices, police stations and libraries should be designed, lands aped,, and
maintained with at least as much care as might-be expected of regulated pri-
vate devOlopment.

Viney@ard Open Land -Foundation, -Looking at the Vineyard, West Tisburyt
V.O.L.F., 1973.

142

Public infrastructure decisions, especially over sewers, water lines
and roads, can have powerful secondary impacts on a commu nity's growth
pattern. Thoughtful location of capital improvements can promote density
patterns that conform to design goals.
Private consensual agreements. Agreements on such matters as residen-
tial siting, materials, and color choice can be,incorporated into private
with the land. Sometimes, a design tradition is so strong,
@that iw*ormal understandings among neighbors are all that is necessary to
ensure c-ompliance., with that tradition.
For example, in Edgartown, Massachusetts, the visual context in higher
density areas has a powerful fabric well recognized and seldom violated.
People want to do things that help. How to do that is generally quite
clear..'.Perhaps nothing more is needed. 1
Regulation of,private development. Traditional zoning.and subdivision

re
,gulations, through the dimensional standards they impose over development
as described earlier, are a powerful tool. Guidelines of the type used on
Martha's Vineyard can be made part of these regulations, either in the form
of detail,ed specifications, or as a basis'for granting specialpermits in
a framework offering more discretion to both decisionmakers and designers.
As seen in checklist, there is a formidable range of elements one might
wish to control by regulation. One might structure efforts by procedding in
three phases. The visual concerns in the earlier.phase are somewhat more.
objective and specifiable than those in later phases which may be.more
judgmental in nature or subtle, and become progressively harder to achieve
consensus over and to implement. The phases are described below.
1. @One might attack first those issues that seem clearest, most-ob-
jective and, perhaps, easiest to implement.with conventional tools., Atten-
tion can focus on, for example, preventing bads: preventing glare,_screen-.
ing open.dumps from view, or regulating the size, placement.,,- and landscaping
of parking lots. Conventional, key dimensional controls such as height can
be,considered here, as well as conventional devices to protect.existing
trees and control earth removal..

See Charles Moore, Gerald Allen and Donlyn Lyndon,,The'Place.of,,Houses,
Holt, R-%nehar t & Winston, 19 74.

143

2. The'is'sues addressed in the second phase are specifiable, but may'
be more subjective than those in the first phase. Examples mi gl,. tinclude-
setback diue*nsions,-road width and alignment, preferred colors (of both,
buildings and lighting) and materials, and other such siting considerations.
especially if they'are a function of landscape type as in the.policy.on
Marthals Vineyard. Other concerns appropriate to this stage might include
selection of street furniture, treatment of fences, dimensions of,unbro.ken
wall -and roof areas, leve.ls of transparency, entry conditions, facade con@
tinuity, proiedtion:of important views and landmarks.
.3. Only in the final phase should the subtlest and, perhaps, most dis-
agreed upon''val'ues.be dealt with. These might include the proportions of
openings,detailing, and structuring spatial sequences. In very special
contexts,such as historic areas, style issues may emerge, or conderns.about'
special"features. Regulation over these matters demands great sensitivity

and fairness.
Incentives; such. as
In any phase., innovative tools may be applicable.
bonuses of land.coverage or density, or tax.assessment breaks might be of-
fered to@encourage visual amenities in selected places or to.stimulate de-
velopers to go beyond minimum zoning or subdivision standards. 'A variety of
design solutions.and innovation can be fostered through the use of perfor-
mance standbitds' rather than precise dimensional specifications that often
are arbitrary.' Thus, the amount of daylight entering spaces might dictate
building e'nve'16pe'and spacing, rather than detailed setback and sideyard
standards.*

An alternative to non-discretionary, self-administered visual guidance
is the establishement,of a design review panel, whether given formal powers
or not. It seems very desirable that a degree of,professional design skill.
be represented on such a panel. While lay judgment of visual impact is also
important, sole reliance on it, without a prestated clear visual policy and
without professionalassistance, is of questionable value and fairness.: Due
.proces@ demands that review procedures and criteria be clear and- that delays
.be,minimized for -developers. Visual consequences are seldom obvious, and
there are few,universally applicable 11rules," other than that things:.hidden
from view by.,topography or trees aren't likely to be offensivei,
The appropriateness of design review.depends on the details of the com-
munitylai design concerns and its available skills and resources. Day-to-day

144

@,Visual management might be self-administered, desig In review procedures being
triggered only in special cases: if development exceeds a specified size
.threshold, if it is to be sited an a previously designated visually sensitive
area, if it is precedent-setting or otherwise salient tolthe community by
prestated criteria. A developer might voluntarily "back into" design review,
seeking exceptions to strict'standards by demonstrating that departures, in
his specific case, would well serve visual poligy objectives.

SUMMARY VISUAL INPACT CHECKLIST

Visual Nuisances BUILT CONTEXT
a -ze, coverage
open dumps and garbage storage, i andheight
buildings and objects in disrepair density
litter unbroken wall or roof dimez
parking lots open space pattern
distance Across roads; sett
2. Dig2lacement proportion of openings
individual buildings color, texture, material
historic or architectural.districts
unique natural features Visual Interest Related to-Mo
scenic areas
PEDESTRIAN
3. Views transparency
blocked scenic views street wall continuity
sidewalk dimension; setback
lookouts spatia
views from roads I sequence
loors cape /p avin g
4. Li&ht, _Shade and Shadow entry frequency and conditi
small-scale detailing
NATURAL
VEHICULAR
shadows cast
road edge definition
vegetation impact 1 .egibility of massing
shade provision
ARTIFICIAL @7. SiEnage
glare private information
color public information
height and direction
:8. Public Streetscape Utilities
5. Visual Compatibility/Obtrusiveness@
9. Diversity
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
o--.Bignificant natural features
topography 10. Image
paths'
landscaping
edges
roads
districts
nodes
landmarks

INN,

146

CHAPTER 8

AFTER PREDICTION

When all the impact predictions are completed, presumably the raw
ingredients forla well-informed decision will be at hand, but the emphasis
should be on raw. Substantial future effort is necessary if the inform&-
tion is really going to affect the public decision, and if the public deci'"!"
sion is really going to control the private outcome. Essentially, these
next steps are:
1. Combine the predictions for e!ach possible outcome into composite
predictions for each decis ion alternative.
2. Consider whether the study was adequate. Were all key topics
covered in a dequate depth to provide a sound basis for decisions? Were
the right alternatives studied, or should they be modified, or a wholly new

set examined?
3. Clarify the comparison between alternatives through simplifications,
highlighting, and formatting techniques..
Mbve to, a decision, perhaps by further modifying one alternative so
that it becomes the clear choice of everyone.

1. Combine Outcomes

impacts of each of the outcomes of each decision alternative should be
assembled for easy reference. A possible format is shown in Table 8-1. In
this, example, rezoning is judged to have three possible outcomes.: apartments,
single-family units, or vacant land..,, Similar tables would be.m,ade for the
other public choices, such as not rezoning.
The,consequendes of multiple outcomes stemming from asingle decision
can sometimes be summarized quantitatively. For example,.,in Table 8-1, if
rezoning,to District D is chosen, there is a 50% chance of. development lead-
ing to a $2.00 tax rate reduction, a 25% chance of an $0.80.reduction, and
a 25% chance of no tax rate impact. Overall, the "expe.cted" tax rate change
is the sum of the products of those probabilities an d impacts:

0.50, x, $2.00 +0.25.x $0.80 + 0.25 x 0.00 $1.20

147

TABLE.8-1
OUTCOME IMPACTS: REZONE TO DISTRICT "D"

600 units 300 units Vacant Overall
multi-family single-family Land assessment

Judged probability 50% 25% 25%
Tax rate change.($/$1000) $2.00 $0.80 .@O $1.20
Major street reconstruction? Probably Possibly No Maybe.
Other traffic congestion? Severe serious None Serious

Lost recreation use Yes Yes No 'Yes

Visual impact Serious Serious None Serious
Broadened housing.choice Yes No No Maybe
Water quality threat Yes Yes No @Yes

Other types of uncertainty can be handled in the same way.I, Results of
alternative assumptions about, say, state fiscal formulas can be.@given prob-
abilities an d:summed to yield a single number for each outcome.

Of course, something is lost in the use of that single number [email protected]
a range'of possible results. For example, in the following table, alterna-,
ti-,es 1,and 2 are very different,,with alternative I almost certain to be
fiEcally superior to alternative 2, despite having the same "expected value."

TAX RATE REDUCTION
Development Development
Alternative 1 Alternative 2
If state tax system remains,"A" $3.00 $0.80
(90% probability)
if state tax system becomes "B" $4.00 $23.80
(10% probability)
..Expected value, $3.10 $3.10

148

Consider Study Ade4uacy
Quickly reviewing the impact predictions for all alternatives may re-
veal study,inadequacies., It may have become clear that one or two impacts
are really the keys to the decision, and that the quick techniques used
for predictions don't provide enough cofifidence.in results. Further pro-
fessional study of those selected impacts may be warranted. It may have
become clear that there are important impacts which weren't studied at allt
and which should be added to the consideration.
become clear that the alternatives studied are the wrong
It.may have
ones: none of them are acceptable, or betterones could now be designed
given what has been learned. Maybe now it is understood that the right al-
ternatives are not acquisition of parking area "a" versus "b" versus "c,"
but rather the broader question of,acquisition of any parking.area versus a
shuttle bus (or the opposite; resolving the broader questionbrings up the
narrower one of site choice).
For any of these reasons, it may be important to through the
prediction phase of the study. The need for such@recyclkng happens.,often
enough that whenever possible, the time.schedule and budget (if any).,for the
impact analysis should allow for it.

3. Clarify CoERarisons
if many impacts of a large number of alternatives have been looked at,
simply arranging the results *so they can be comprehended may. not, be- easy.
Table 8-.2 shows a mixed verbal and quantitative approach. @,It reflects
enormous simplification. Each tax@rate change entry, for example, might
reflect summing over several assumptions about future state fiscal struc-
ture and over a number,of possible development outcomes. The one-word
en tries.stand in place-of paragraphs of description. However, that format
does make-possible considering all of the alternatives andall of their
'impacts at the same time.
Table 8-3 further simplifies and organizes the same predictions.
First, it@uses a graphic technique, which is easier to impressionistically
SC&a than are words or figures. Second,it addresses the issue of who
benefits and who pays by organizing the impacts into two subsets, base,1 on
which intere.st group is most concerned about them. Third,,.1it moves frm

149

TABLE .4-72
IMPACT 'SUMMARY: GOLF COURSE APARTMENTS

city Decision Choices'.
Impacts
Do City Re z one Rezone
Nothing Purchase to D to@F

Tax rate change (.$/$1,000) .+0.20 +0.20 -1.20 -1.40
Major street.reconstruction? No No Maybe ..Yes
c congestion e
Other t raffi Slight None Serious Mo derat

Lost recreation use Doubtful No Yes No

Visual impact Small None Serious ?
Broadened housing choice No Unlikely. Maybe Y-es
Water quality threat No No Yes Some

TABLE 8-3
GRAPHIC IMPACT''SUMMARY

City Decision.Choicis@-
Impact@' Do City Rezo.ne Rezone
Nothing Purchase @to D to F

CITY'CONCERNS

Tax rate change
Lost recreation use 0
B,r Padened housing choice 0
Water quality threat

NEIGHBORHOOD CONCERNS

Street reconstruction
0
Other congestion OD .-0
Visual impact '0.
Broadened housing phoice

0 Clear, strong, positive impacts or no impact

Neutral., or ambivalent, or uncertain

Clear, strong,%negative impact

150

prediction to evaluation: the prediction of broadened housing' choice is
eva luated 'and indicated as,"Positive" to the city as a whole, but "nega-
tive" to the neighborhood. This format makes the decision dilemma clear:
that which apparently best serves the city (rezone to F with careful water
quality controls) is different from that which apparently best serves the
neighborhood (city purchase).
The summary of Table 8-3 suggests that the consideration can be further
simplified: doing nothing or rezoning to D serve neither city nor neighbor
hood very well, so attention can focus on.city purchase and rezoning to F.
Loss of recreation use is a non-issue between those two. The water quality
and negative visual impact threats following rezoning can be controlled.
That leaves a greatly simplified set of considerations.(see Table 8-4).

TABLE 8-4
REDUCED CONSIDERATIONS

Alternatives
City Purchase Rezone to F

CITY. CONCERNS
Tax rate change $+0.20 $-1.40
-Proadened housing choice Unlikely.. Only if. city, Almo s tcertain.,
sells other.golf course Mtilti.-family units,
for subsidized housing. 10% subsidized.

NEIGHBORHOOD CONCERNS

Street.reconstruction No traffic changes no Kenrick level of
major street reconstruc- service "F," widen-
tion. ing virtually cer-.
tAin.

.Other congestion No change Lake., Waverlyi
others drop 1 level
of service.

Broadened housing choice No threat here. Major change in
type of household
in neighborhood.

151

_40 Deciding
The outcome of.an impact analysis is likeliest to affect decision-
makers if it has a great-feeling of reality for thera. -There are,16ts of.'
ways of giving it that. Perhaps the most effectiveis involvement by the
decision-makers in the- analysis. If a co'mparab .le deve lopment 1s' Ibeing us ed
as an analog,.it will be far more effective if decision-makers @.Lsit it,.
not just read'-a report on a visit to it by others. The traffic =gestion
analysis is based on local judgements about present level of ser-A-de. It
will be most believable,if the decision-makers provided those i
udgements.
The.decision may be easy. One alternative may be superior on all
counts, -for all interests (though such finding merits verifying the objec-
tivity 'of'the analyst). There may be a mixed bag of good and bad impactsJ
but some impacts so catastrophic that those' alternatives have to'be elimin7
ated, no matter how many good qualities they'have.
It.may be possible to.winnow down to only two major impacts which dif-
fer among alternatives. Choice can then sometimes be clarified by simple
arithmetic. In Table'8-5, scheme A clearly is the most productive in rela-
tion to@amount of harbor fill,.and schemes C and D are clearly inferior for
either job enthusiasts or harbor savers. The remaining question'is.wheiher
nearly tripling the amount of harbor fill in B versus'A is justi-fied.'.b@@the
,.50% gain in jobs.

TABLE 8-5
PUBLIC PIER ALTERNATIVES

Jobs Harbor areal Jo#s, per
Produced filled S.y@: filled
Scheme A 220 55 4.0

Scheme B, 340 140 2.4

Scheme C 260 140 1.9

Scheme D 180 56 3.2

Often, choices can't-be resolved by such techniques. One alternative

-a whole
is best for one set of interest,,, another for another. There is
.literature of how to then assign values to the outcomes and weights to.,the
various'affec.ted interests and their preferences. The bibliography cites

152

"such references.. We are skeptical of their value, at least. for the type of
decisions being discussed here.
We do see merit in engaging broad public participation in the choosing.
Citizen panels, for example,.which earlier helped shape studies, should re-
view the results. Panels might jointly make a recommendation on the pro-
posal, by consensus among the groups or by voting. Other techniques take
the form of "games to facilitate group discussion, voting, and ranking of
preferences. The bibliography lists sources of information about them. Comr,
munity surveys can also be cond uc ted. If carefully designed,,:they can
elicit different groups' willingness to make tradeoffs of the type: "Is a
$2.00 reduction on the tax rate worth a 50% traffic increase on Main
Street?" More simply, open meetings can be held on preliminary findings.
Often, the key to being able to move ahead is modifying.the alterna-
-..tives so,that one of them has something in it for everyone. Perhaps the
rezoning to F displayed at Table 8-4 could be accompanied...by a commitment
to notclose a neighborhood school,.as had been planned. The alternative
then becomes "Rezone to F, put special controls on.water quality, require
special height limits and design review with neighborhood participation, and
keep.the Mozart School open." Concensus is reached, a decision is.made, and
there is,.assurancd thatthe outcome will have the desired,qualities.. That's
what. yooij impact analysis is all AbOtLt: informing thosemaking.decisions
-he.interests of all.who are affected.
so.they can make them well, serving t.

153

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY

The following sources may be useful for development impact analysis.
Sources are organized by chapter of this guidebook; in addition, some refer-
ences for environmental impacts are listed at the end. Items thought parti-
cularly useful are asterisked.
Other documents provide valuable background information specific to each
pity and town. These include:
a. Municipal reports: annual reports, Master Plans, public facility
studies, etc.
b. Regional Planning Agency studies;
c. State reports on each community: in Massachusetts, the Department
of Commerce and Development has recently issued a new set of "profiles" for
each city and town.

CHAPTER 1: PROCESS OF IMPACT ANALYSIS

Angotti, Thomas, Diane Joubert, Ann Preston, "Impact Analysis: Science or
Art?", Massachusett
s Department of Community AffairS, Office of Munici-
pal Planning and Management, 1975.

Crouch, R.L. and R.E. Weintraub, "Cost-Benefit Analysis of a PUD," Urban
Land, June 1973.

Gruen, Gruen and Associates, The Impacts of Growth, An Analytical Framework
and Fiscal Example,San Francisco: California Better Housing.Founda-
tion, 1972.

*Schaenman, Philip, Using an Impact Measurement System to Evaluate Land
Development, Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute, 1976. One of the best
single works onimpact analysis. Suggests general study approaches.
Available for $3.95 from the Publications Office, The Urban Institute,
2100 M Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037 (refer to publication "URI
15500").

*Schaenman, Philip and Thomas Muller, Measuring Impacts of Land Development
Washington. D.C.: Urban Institute, 1974. Useful for all chapter in
this guidebook, suggesting specific impact measures and general study
approaches; discussion of study approaches has been superceded by P.
Schaenman, Using an Impact Measurement System.,op. cit. Available
for $2.95 from the Publicatiors Office, The Urban Institute,2100 M
Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037 (refer to publication "URI 8600").

154

Quantitative Decision Methods

For those who find them useful, the following technical references sug-
gest quantitative methods for weighting impacts and considering their timing
and uncertainty.

Dacy, Douglas, Robert Keunne, and Martin McGuire, Approaches to the Treatment
of Incommensurable in Cost-Benefit.Analysis, prepared for the National
Science Foundation by the Institute for Defense Analysis, Program Ana-
lysis Division, Arlington, Virginia, 1973.

Eckstein, Otto, Water-Resources Development: The Economics of Project Devel-
opment, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 195.8. The classic on cost-
benefit analysis.

Friend, J.K. and W.N. Jessop, Local Government and Strategic Choice, London:
Tavistock Publications, 1969. Pages 177-193 illustrate a method for
weighting preferences of diverse interest groups.*
Hinrichs, Harley and Grame Taylor (eds.), Program Budgeting and Benefit-Cost
Analysis, Pacific Palisades, Calif.: Goodyear, 1969.

Raiffa Howard, Decision Analysis, Introductory Lectures on Choices Under
Uncertainty, Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1968.

Schermer, Julie Hetrick, "Interest Group Assessment in Transportation Plan-
ning," Traffic Quarterly, January 1975.

U.S. Army Office of the Chief of Engineers, Water Resources Assessment
Methodology (WRAM) -- Impact Assessment and Alternative Evaluation,
Environmental Effects Laboratory, February 1977. Quantitative scaling
and weighting techniques.

Van Horne, James Financial Management and Polic
y, Englewood Cliffs: N.J.:
Prentice-Hall, 1972. See discussion on present value analysis.

Citizen Participation Techniques

Dean Runyan, "Tools for Community-Managed Impact Assessment," Journal of the
American Institute of Planners, April 1977. Summary of community-level
group involvement in impact assessment, emphasizing social impacts.

*Halprin, Lawrence and Jim Burns, Taking Part: A Workshop Approach to Collec-
tive Creativity, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1974. Contains innovative ap-
proaches to engaging participation.

Delbecq, Andre and Andrew Van de Ven, "A Group Process Model for Identifica-
tion and Program Planning,"Journal of Applied Behavioral Science 7,
Jan./Feb. 1971, p. 466. A group process and voting technique.

-155-

Duke, Richard and Cathy Greenblat, IMPASSE, Ann Arbor, Mich. Radius Inter-
national, 1973. A simple group impact assessment game that structures
discussion and provides estimates of impacts for one or more proposals..

Linstone, H. and M. Turoff, The Delphi Method: Technique and Applications,
Reading, Mass.:Addison-Wesley 1975. A method to elicit opinions of
a group of individuals without meetings or direct discussion.

CHAPTER 2:: TRAFFIC, IMPACTS

Traffic Generation Data

Abend,Norman, "Traffic Generation of Residential Land Use," memo for Mass-
chusetts Department of Community Affairs, 28 September 1973.

Buttke, Carl, "An Approximation of Regional Shopping Center Traffic," Traffic
Engineering, April 19 72.

Edwards & Kelcey, Central Corridor Traffic Study, for Massachusetts Depart-
ment of Public Works, Boston, 1965.

Hansen Dennis, Volume XV Travel Generation, National Association of County
Engineers Action Guide Series, Washington, D.C.: National Association of,
Counties.Research Foundation, July 1972. Suggests approaches and issues,
for traffic studies summarizes national traffic generation data. Avail-
able free from Planning Procedures Branch HHP24., Federal Highway Admin-
istration, Washington,, D.C. 20590.

Herr Associates, "Performance Zoning II," for Franklin County Planning Depart-
ment and Massachusetts Department of Community Affairs,, June 1972. See
Traffic/Lot Size Analysis.

Institute of traffic Engineers, Committee 5N-S, "Guidelines for Driveway
Design and Location," Traffic Engineering, February, March and April,
1973. Summarizes national traffic generation data and suggests how
to estimate traffic from proposal.

Institute of Traffic Engineers, Ohio Section, "Trip Generation Study Provides
Useful Preliminary Data," Traffic Engineering, March 1974.
Institute of Transportation Engineers,. Tr12 Generation, ITE Informational Re-
port, 1976.
Keefer, Louis and David Witheford,Urban Travel Patterns for Airports, Shop-
ping Centers and Industrial Plants, Washington, D.C.:Highway Research
Board, National Academy of Sciences--National Research Council, 1966.

*Maricopa Association of Governments, Trip Generation by Land Use,, Part I:
A Summary of Studies Conducted, Maricopa Co., Arizona, April 1974. The.
most useful summary of traffic generation studies from around the coun-
try., Limited number of copies available free from Planning Procedures
Branch HHP24, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C. 20590.

Martha's Vineyard Commission, "Table of Regional Traffic Generators," Oak,
Bluffs, Mass.: M.V.C., October 1975.

156

Shaw,, Robert, "Traffic Generation and Fast Food Restaurants," Traffic Engin-
eering, March 1975.

Smith, Wilbur and Assoc., Patterns of Car Ownership,,Trip.Generation and Trip
Sharing in Urbanized Areas, New Haven,-1968.

Other Traffic References

Highway Research Board, Highway_Capacity Manual 1965, Sp_ecial,Report 87,
Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences--National Research Coun-
cil, 1966. iTechnical method for estimating capacity and level of service.

:'Institute of Traffic.Engineers,.Technical Committee 5DD, "Guidelines for Plan-
ning and.De.signing Access Systems for Shopping Centers,", Traffic.Engin-
eering, January and February,.1975.

.@Institute of.Traffic Engineers, Traffic Engineering Handbook, rev.ed. August
1975.

Lynch, Kevin, Site Planning, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1971, pp. '118-156.
kas.sachdsetts Department of Public Works, "1974 Traif f id''Vaii6es" '(updated
pdtiodically)-.. Data mainly for state highways.

,.Urban Land Institute, American So ciety of,Civil Engineers and National Associ-
ation, of Home:Builders, "Residential Streets: Objectives, Principles and
Design Considerations," 1974.

CHAPTER 3: PUBLIC,FACILITY IMPACTS

General References

DeChiara and Lee Koppelman. Manual of Housing, Planning and Design
'Criteria, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972.

Goodman,:William and Eric Freund, Principles and Practices,of Urban Planning,
Washington, D.C.: International City Managers Association, 4th edition,.
196.8,; - Chapter 8.

Lynch,.,Kevin. Site Planning, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT'Ptess,-1971.

Real Est ate Resear ch Corporation, The Costsof Spra@71,.Washington,- D.C.: U. S.
-Council on Environmental Quality, 1974. Includes extensive bibliography.

U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service,
Environmental Health Guide, Washington, D.C., 1962.

157

Schools

Herr Associates, "School. Facilities Plan," prepared for Clinton Planning
Board and Massachusetts Dept. of Community Affairs, 18 March 1971.
Method for school construction planning based on alternative assump-
tions about future enrollments.
Massachusetts Department of Education, Bureau of Research and Assessment,
"Enrollment Projections for Public Schools in Massachusetts, 1975-
1979," October 1975.

Recreation

Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management, "Massachusetts Outdoors
--StAtewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan," December 1976. Dis-
cusses state and regional demand forvarious recreational,activities,
and capacity standards for facilities.

National Recreation and Park Association, "Outdoor Recreation Space Standards,"
New York, 1965.

Water

Bond, Richard and Conrad Straub (eds.), CRC Handbook of Environmental Controls,
Volume III: Water Supply and Treatment, Cleveland: CRC Press, 1972. Col-
tables from various water studies.

Insurance Services Office, "Guide for Determination of Required Fire Flow,"
New York; I.S.O., 1974.

Linaweaver, F.P., John Geyer and Jerome Wolff, "A Study of Residential Water
Use," for U.S. Federal Housing Administration, Washington, D.C., 1967.
Careful nationwide study.

Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Annual Water Consumption by Muni-
cipality unpublished).

Metcalf & Eddy, Wastewater Engineering: Collection, Treatment,Disposal, New
York: McGraw-Hill, 1972.

New England River Basins Commission, How to Guide Growth in Southeastern New
England, Boston: N.E.R.B.C., May 1975.

Strahler, Arthur N., The Environmental Impact of Ground Water Use on Cape
Cod, Orleans, Mass.: Association for the Preservation of Cape Cod, 1972.
Clear explanation of how ground water sources can be polluted by devel-
opment.

158

'Sewage
Massachusetts Department of Public Health, State Sanitary Code, Article XI.,
Minimum. Requirements for the Disposal of Sanitary Sewage in Unsewered
Areas, 1966. Currently being revised.

Massachus 'etts Federation of Planning Boards,.Planners Handbook, Braintree,
Mass.: M.F.P.B., revised 1975. See Appendix S: "Quide.for.Lot Size De-'
termination for Single.-Family Dwellings."

Metcalf & Eddy, Wastewater Engineering: Collection@ Treatment, Disposal,.New
York: MdGraw-Hill, 1972.

Tabors, Richard, Peter Rogers and Michael Shapiro, land Use and the Pipe: The
Impactof Sewer Extension on Land Use, Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books,
D.C. Heath & Co., 1976. Discusses related issue of how sewers spur
further development.

Storm Drainage

Urban Land Institute,.Ametican Society of Civil Engineers and National Associ
ation of Home Builders, "Residential Storm Water Manage .ment: Objectives,
Principles, and Design Considerations," 1975. Valuable,discussion.empha-
sizing on-site storage and site design rather.than major public, systems.
aft Lan&-Institute, 1200
Available for $7 50 (non-members) from the Urbc
Street N.W.:.Washington, D.C. 20.036.

U.S. Environmental Rrotection-Agency,,Office of Research and Monitoring,
Stream Quality Preservation through Planned Urban Development, Washington,
D.C., 1973. Effect of development-on stream flooding.

Solid Waste

Bond,-Richard and Conrad*Straub (eds.), CRC Handbook of Environmental Control,_
Volume II, Solid Waste, Cleveland, CRC Press, 1972. Collection of tables
from various solid waste generation studies.

Raytheon Service Co., Solid Waste Management Study Report, for the Massachu-
setts Department of Public Works,'1972. Extensive, thre4-:-vo 111me- state-@
wide@study of solid waste generation and alternative disposal methods.

Other Facilities

American Library Association, Public Library Association, "Interim Standards
for Small Public Libraries: Guidelines Towards Adhieving,Gpals of
Public Library Servicet" Chicago, 1962.

159

CHAPTER 4- FISCAL INPACTS

.General Methods

Angotti, Thomas, Diane.Jou bert and Anne Preston "Impact Analysis: Science
or Art?"',,.Massachusetts Department of Community Affairs, Office',',of@,..@,
Municipal.Planning and Management, 1975.

Connecticut Development Group, Inc., Cost Revenue Impact Analysis for Resi-
dential Developments, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, 1974.

Devanney, J.W., G. Ashe and B. Parkhurst, Parable Beach: A Primerin Coastal
Zone Economics, Report to Office of Coastal Zone Management, U.S. De-
partment;of Commerce, Cambridge, Mass.:*MIT, November 1974.

'icipal Cost-Revenue Research in the United States, A Critical
Mace,'Ruth Mun
Survey,of,Resea-rch to Measure Municipal Costs and.Revenues in Relation
to Land Uses and Areas: 1933-1960, Chapel Hill, N.C.: Institute,of Gov-
ernment, University of North Carolina, 1961.

*,Muller, Thomas,,' Fiscal Impacts of Land Development, A Critique of Methods and
Review of Issues, Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute, 1975. Useful recent
discussion of methods and issues. @vailable for $2.95 from Publications
Offic.e,'The Urban.Institute, 2100 M Street N.W., Washingtonli D.C.. 20057
(refer.topublication,as "URI 98000111.

Case Studies",;'

Adams, Howard and Opperman, "Comprehensive Development Plan, Town of Lincoln$
1965.

'Boston Municipal,Research Bureau and ABT Associates, The Effect.ofHigh.Dens-
ity Development on Municipal Finances in the City of Boston.,-Boston,
April 1974. Detailed comparison of several residential and non-residen-
tial sections of Boston.

Gruen, Gruen and Associates, the IjRacts of Growth, An Analytical Framework
and Fiscal Example, San Francisco: California Better Rousing Foundation,
1972.

Houston, Susan Levine, "The Costs and Revenues Generated by Low and Moderate,
income Housing in the Suburbs: A Study of Newton," unpublished Master o f
City Planning Thesis, MIT, 1972. Item-by-item analysis of service costs.

Levin, Michael, "Cost-RevenUe -.1-mpact Analysis: State of the Art,"' Urban Land,
June 1�75.

Mace, Ruth and Warren Wicker, "Do Single-Family Homes Pay Their Way?", Wash-
D.C.: Urban Land Institute (research monograph 15). 1968.
Minuto, James, Cost-Revenue Study, Community Developraent Department, Cambridge,
Mass., March. 1976..

160

Muller., Thomas and Grace Dawson, Fiscal Impact of Residential and Commercial
Development, Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute, 1972..

Stephens, George, "Fiscal Impact Model for Land Developme nt: A Case Study,"
Urban Land, June 1975.
Stuart, Darwin and Robert Teska, "Who Pays for What?", -urban Land, March 1971.

Background Data

Boston Safe Deposit and Trust Company, "Financial Statistics of Massachusetts,
Including State, Counties, Cities, Towns, Districts and Authorities"
(annual). Shows debt, debt ratios, etc.

Massachusetts Department of Community Affairs, State Building Code Commission,
"Number and Value of Building Permits" (monthly). For estimating current
number of dwellings in,community.

Massachusetts Department of Corporations and Taxation, Bureau of Local Assess-
ment Assessed and Equalized Valuations by LandUse for Each City and
Town (unpublished).

Massach usetts Department of Corporations and Taxation, Bureau of Planning and
Research, Amount of Chapter 70 School Aid and Other State Aid to Each-
City@and Town (from each year's "Cherry Sheet") (unpubl. ished).

Massachusetts Department of Education, Research, Planning and Evaluation Divi-
sionj "Analysis of School Aid to Massachusetts Cities and Towns Chapter
70 Amended" (annual). Shows Ch.@70 school aid percentagefor each community.

*Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, "Municipal Financial Data, Including 1976
.Tdx Rates" (annual). Lists current tax rates, levies, assessments for
each.community., Available free from Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation,
1 Federal Street, Boston, Mass. 02110.

Sternlieb, George and Robert Burchell, "The Numbers Game: Forecasting House-
hold Size," Urban Land, January 1974. Estimates schoolchildren by type
of@unit and number of bedrooms based on extensive New,j,e,rsey survey.-

U.S. Bureau of the Census, ten'sus of Housing: 1970, Vol. 1, Housing Character-
istics for States, Cities and Counties; Part 23, Massair-husetts,.Washing-
D.C.: U.S. Government,Printing Office, 1972. Indicates number of@
dwellings in each community in 1970..

Potential Changes in Massachusetts Fiscal Structure

Eisenmenger, Robert, Alicia Munnell and Joan Poskanier, Options for Fiscal
Structure Reform in Massachusetts, Federal Reserve Bank of.Boston Re-
search Report 57, March 1975. Describes current fiscal,, system and
possible changes.,

161

Herr Associates, "Revenue Analysis" for Ashland Finance Committee, rev..11
De:cember 1972., Analyzes local tax impacts of,development under differ-
ent assumptions about the future of the state fiscal system.

CHAPTER 5: ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Epeloyment Impacts
Boston Economic Pevelo ustry."
pment and Industrial Commission, "Boston.'s Ind
1970. @Survey of,existing Boston manufacturers., including square,feet
per"employee.

Boston Redevelopment Authority, "Jobs for Boston's Future Expanding the
Cityls.Economic BaseThroug Ih Capital Investment -- Mayor Kevin White's
Progr4m,".Noviember 1975. Estimates of construction and petmanent,j6bs
in potential development.

Devanney, 0 J.W., G. Ashe, and B. Parkhurst, Parable Beach: A Primer in Coastal
Zone Economics, Report to Office of Coastal Zone Management, U.S. Dept...
of Comme-rce, C ridge, Mass.: MIT,-November 1974.

Building Construction Cost Data 1976, Duxbury, Mass.: Robert Snow Means Co'.P.
1975. Construction costs per square foot.

Hyun, David Kyun (ed,).'. Preliminary Cost Guide, Complete System for-Total Pro-
ject Development, Pasadena, Calif.: Architectural Data.Corporation., 1974.
Construction costs per square foot.

*Massachusetts Division of Employment Security,."Employment and,Wages in Estab-
lishments-Subject to the Massachusetts Employment Security@Tax,",(annual).
Number:,of@employees-who work in each city and town.

*Muller, Thomas,,Economic Impacts of Land Development, Washington, D.C.: Urban
Institute, 1976. .Good discussion of impact measures for employment,
housing, and property values. Available for $3.95 from Publications
Office, The Urban-Institute, 2100 M Street N.W., Washington, D.C.,20037
(refer. to publication as "URI 15800");.

Massachusetts Division of Employment Security, Estimates of Labor Force and
Unemployment Rates for Each City and Town (unpublished;.compiled monthly)..

@M.assachusettsXvision-of Employment Security, "Massachusetts Trends inLabor
Force, Employment, Unemployment" (monthly). Data for labor market areas
not for individual communities.

Massachusetts Office of State Planning, 1970 U.S.. Census data on jobs, labor
force, and-commuting for each city and town (unpublished).

1976 Dodge-Congtruction System Costs., New York: McGraw-Hill Information,Sys-
tems Co., 1975. Construction costs per square foot.

162

U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population: 1970', Detailed Characteris-
tics, Final Report PC(l)-D23 Massachusetts, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Gov-
ernment Printing Office, 1972. Type of jobs by industry, etc.

U.S. Bureau'of the Census, Census of Population: 1970, General Social and
Economic Characteristics, Final Report PC(l)-C23,Massachusetts,
Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office,, 1972.. Data on
occupations, income,.Journey to work, etc., by community.

Business Opportunities

Department of Hotel, Restaurant and.Travel Administration, University of
Massachusetts at Amherst, The Economic-Impact of Tourism on the Common-
wealth of Massachusetts, for the Massachusetts Department of Commerce
and Development, December 1974. Provides multipliers" for estimating
indirect effects of A new activity on the state economy; see pp. 65-83
149-161., Quite technical.

,Hellman, Daryl, "External Impacts of Housing Developments: Calculating Effects
on. Commercial Property Values," Urban Land,: October 1:974. Elaborate
method for projecting retail sales due. to new residents. p

Herr Associates, "Retailing in Andover," prepared for.Andove'r,Planning Board,
1975. Projects 'local retail, sales due, to residential, growth.
Massadhusetts,Department of Commerce and Develo, us ,trial Directory of
pment, Ind
Massachusetts Manufacturers, 197.4-1975 edition. Lists current manufact
urers in'each city and town, suggesting potential suppliers (if any),
f or new f irmis.

Urban-Land Institute, Dollars and Cents of Shoppink Centers,'@Washington, D.C.:
1975. Lists sales per square foot by type- of store.

U.S.' Bureau of the Census, Census of Retail Trade, 1972, Airea.Series, Mass&-
chusetts, RC72-A-22, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government :Printing Office,,
197C

Other Economic Issues

Blimenfeld, Hans, "The Economic Base of the Metropolis, Critical,Remarks-on
the:Basic-Nonbasic Concept," Journal of the American@ Instil:ute of Flan-,
ners, 1955.

HA-:rison:,.Bennett, Economic Development.for Massachusetts.. for. Joint Commitr
tee:'Ion Commerce and Labor of the Massachusetts Legislatu're, 1974.
Challenges many common assumptions about state'economic needs.and d6-
velopment approaches.

Sweet,javid, "The Systematic Approach to Industrial DevOl 6pmeni Research
71
Urban Land, June 1970.

163

,T,1lman,,'Edward.%..Michael Dacey, Harold Brodsky, The Economic-Bas-e'of American
Cities. Seattle:,University of Washington, Center.for Urban & Regional
Researchirev.,1971.- Survey, mainly for larger cities.

CHAPTER'6: SOCIAL IMPACTS

Population

Gans, Herbert, "The Balanced Community: Homogeneity or Heterogene ity-in Resi-
defitial Areas," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, August
1961. Classic article an advantages and disadvantages of a diverse
population living in a community.

Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, 1975 State Census.
U.S. Bu Iredu of the Census, Census of Housing: 1970, Components of 'Inventory
Change, FinalReport HCW-3, Boston, Mass. SMSA, Washington, D.C.: I U.S.
Government Printing Office, 1973. Characteristics of occupants in-new
and older units-in the Boston metropolitan area.

U.S. Bureau'of:the Census, Census of Population: 1970,_ General Population
Characteristics, Final Report PC(l)-B23, Massachusetts, Washington, D.C.:
U. S. Government, Printing Office, 1971.

V.S. Bureau. of the -Census, SSa@Liis of Population: 1970, General Social and
Economic Characteristics, Final Report PC(l)-C23, Massachusetts,-Washing-
tion, D.C.: U.S.Government.,Printing Office, 1972. Incomes, occupations,
many other characteristics,

Housing,

Dorchester-Columbia Point Task Force (with assistance of Justin Gray Associ-
ates), "Report on the Impact of U.Mass. in Dorchester," Boston, January
1973. Case study, emphasizes housing impacts in surrounding neighbor-
hood.

Massachusetts Department of Community Affairs, 1974 Report on Housing Needs
and Programs. Table 7 shows housing needs estimates for each-city and.
town (based on 19,70 U.S. Census).

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Cens-us of Housirig:'1970, Vol. 1,__Housing Character-
istics for States, Cit'i6s and Counties, Part 23, Massachusetts. Washing-
ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1972.

U.S. Department of Housing.and Urban Development, FHA Economic and Market
Analysis Division, FHA Techniques of Housing Market Analysis, Washington,
D.C.: HUD, rev. 1970.

164

Other Social -Impacts

Cl,risterisen, Kathleen, Social impacts of Land Develo pment, Washington, D.C.-
Urban Institute, 1976. Provides. illustrative citizen survey form and
,discusses impacts on recreation patterns, shopping opportunities, pedes-
trian mobility,.and safety and privacy. Available for $3.95 from Pub-
Office, The Urban Institute, 2100 M'Street N.W., Washington,
D.C. 20037 (refer to publication as "URI 15700").

Duncan & Jones, Methodology and Guidelines for Assessing Social Impacts of
Development, Berkeley, CA: July 1976. Good outline of assessment process.

Keller, Suzanne, The Urban ftigjhborhood: A Sociological Perspective, New York:
Random House, 1968, Discussion of sociability in residential neighbor-
hoods.

Massachusetts League of Cities and Towns,-"1975-1976 Massachusetts Municipal
Directory,," Boston: MLCT, 1.975. Lists government structure for each
city and town.

New Jersey County and Municipal Government Study Commission,,.Housing & Sub-
urbs: Fiscal and Social Impact of Multi-Family'Development, Trenton,_
October 1974. Comprehensive discussion 'of social impacts and community
attitudes toward apartments.

Proshansky, Harold, W. Ittelson and L. Rivlin (eds.), Envitonmental Psychology:
Nan andHis.lPhysical Setting, New York: Hdlt, Rinehart & Winston, 197.0.
General redder on psychic and social effects of one.@P-environment.

"Report of the Aoartment Impact Study Committee," for@the Burlir.gton, Mass.
Planning Board, 15 March 1973. Includes survey of residents' attitudes
toward recent apartment developments.

Stanford Research.Institute, City Size and the Quality-of Life, for National.
Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.:.U.S. Government Printing Office,
197:4. National comparisons, mainly of larger cities..

CHAPTER 7: VISUAL IMPACTS

Lynch, Kevin, Site Planning, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press , 101'.

*Lyndh@,@, Kevin, Manaking the Sense of a Region, Cambridge, Mass. MIT Press,
1@ 76. Good survey.of evaluation teclAniques and. management. tools.

Nally., Thomas, Design Review: Alternative Models of.Administration, unpub-
lished Master in City Planning Thesist MITj 1977. Thorough analysis
of effectiveness of different review mechanisms in different.contexts.

Skidmore Owings & Merrill, Physical Impacts Notebook, pr bp ared ior@the U. S.
Dept.. of Transportation, Washington, D.C.., 1975. Focuses on impacts..of
transportation facilities but useful general*re.ference.

165

Vineyard Open Land Foundation, Looking at the Vineyard: A Visual Study for:
aChanging Island, West Tisbury, Mass.: VOLF, 1973. Example of.. general
.visual guidelines for new development.

SOURCES FORIENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

Burchell'. Robert and David Listokin, The Environmental Impact Handbook, New
Brunswick, N.J..: Rutgers University, Center for Urban Policy, Research,
1
975.

California Council.of Civil Engineers and land Surveyors, Environmental Im-
pact Aiialysis,,Sacramento, 1972.

Herman, Barbara, "Environmental Review Team," AIP Planners Notebook, Febru-
ary 1975.,

Illinois Institute,for Environmental Quality, Environmental Impact State-
ments: A Handbook for Writers and Reviewers, Urbana-Champagne, Ill.:
Univ. of.Illinois, August 1973%(distributed by,National Technical Infor-
mationEervice,.U.S.Dept. of Commerce, Washington, D.C.),

*Keyes, Dale L., Land:Development and the Natural Environment: Estimating
Impacts, Washington, D,.C..: Urban Institute., '1976. . Available for '$4.-.95
'from Publications Office, The' Urban Institute, 2100 M Street N.Wc@
Washington., D.C. 20037 (refer to publication. "URI 13500")

Leopold, Luna et al., AY.rocedure-for Evaluating Environmental Impact,
'Washington, D.C.: U.S. Geological Survey, 1971..

Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs, "Environmental
Assessment Form Manual," December 1975. Instructions for fillinglout
state environmental assessment forms..

Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs., "Regulations Gov-
erning the Preparation. of Environmental Impact Reports," 6 October.1975.

Skidmore, Owings,& Merrill, Physical Impacts Notebook, prepared for the'U.S.
Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 1975., Focuses onim-
pacts of transportation facilities but useful general.reference..

U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, '!Preparation of Environmental Impact
Statements: Guidelines," Federal Register, 1 August 1�73.

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