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S220252SURN= __ 2S20252SN22 552222525M COASTAL ZONE INFORMATION CENTER .COASTAL AREA MANAGEMENTACT LAND USE PLAN CITY OF WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA IT. HD 268 M55 C63 1976 Aw_ 2W Si 225522932S255M /ff & COASTAL ZO .NE JNFORMATION CENTER NOTICE TO USERS All major policy related maps and documents are either included within the text or attached to the back of the plan. However, due to the expense and technical limitations required for reprinting some illustrations may be omitted. Complete copies are available for inspection at the N. C. Coastal Resources'Commission offices in Raleigh or at the local government offices. L OVER J, 4,f 1739 ljlauniq Gamraission JL 0. Praffitr 1818 Milmingtort, W. (IL 28401 May 24, 1976 Mr. T. D. Eure, Chairman Coastal Resources Commission P.O. Box 650 Morehead City, N.C. 28557 Dear Chairman Eure: on behalf of the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Commission, the Wilmington City Council, and the New Hanover County Board of Commissioners, I am pleased to submit "Policies for Growth and Development of the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area" and supporting material to the Coastal Resources Commission for review and comment. These policies have been endorsed by the Planning Commission-and jointly adopted by the Wilmington City Council and the New Hanover County Board of Commissioners. The planning process on which these policies are based has been designed to meet the guidelines of the Coastal Resources Commission-, however, in meeting the particular needs of the Wilmington-New Hanover.Planning Area, it has been necessary to deviate, in some cases,-from the format of the traditional land use.plan. The adoption of these policies complete the first phase of a three- phase land use planning process. Phases 2 and 3 will generate more detailed land use recommendations and will develop the necessary tools to implement these recommendations. If this office can answer any questions concerning the "Policies for Growth and Development," the technical studies, or any other part, of the planning program, please feel free to contact us. Very truly yours, Richard A. Fender Director of Planning RAF/jw cc: Mr. Peter R. Davis, Chm., New Hanover Co. Comm. Mr. Ben B. Halterman, Mayor, City of Wilmington Mr. Dan Eller, County Manager Mr. John A. Jones, City Manager RESOLUTION OF THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA, ADOPTING A GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY FOR WILMINGTON AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY WHEREAS, the Coastal Area Management Act of 1974 (G.S. 113A-107(a) requires that each of the twenty coastal counties of North Carolina develop and adopt a policy for growth and development of that county; and WHEREAS, a policy for the growth and development of Wilmington and the unincorporated areas of New Hanover County has been reviewed and recommended by the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Commission; and WHEREAS, said policy is necessary to provide for and guide the orderly growth and development of Wilmington and the unincorporated areas of New Hanover County. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED3 BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA, AT A MEETING ASSEMBLED THIS THE 20TH DAY OF MAY, 1976 AS FOLLOWS: That the growth and development policy for Wilmington and New Hanover County is hereby adopted for purposes of submission to the Coastal Resources Commission for their review and comment. The foregoing resolution was duly adopted at the meeting aforesaid. Mayor ATTEST: 0 City Clerk CERTIFIED TO BE A TRUE COPY CITY CLERK RESOLUTION OF THE BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA, ADOPTING A GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY FOR WILMINGTON AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY WHEREAS, the Coastal Area Management Act of 1974 (G.S. 113A-107(a) requires that each of the twenty coastal counties of North Carolina develop and adopt a policy for growth and development of that county; and WHEREAS, a policy for the growth and development of Wilmington and the unincorporated areas of'New Hanover County has been reviewed and recommended by the Wilmington@New Hanover Planning Commission; and WHEREAS, said policy is necessary to provide for and guide the orderly growth and development of Wilmington and the unincorporated areas of New Hanover County. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, BY THE BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS OF NEW HANOVER COMM, NORTH CAROLINA, AT A MEETING ASSEMBLED THIS THE 20TH DAY OF MAY, 1976 AS FOLLOWS: That the growth and development policy for Wilmington and New Hanover County is hereby adopted for purposes of submission to the Coastal Resources Commission for their review and comment. The foregoing resolution was duly adopted at the meeting aforesaid. Chairman ATTEST: Clerk to the Board CERTIFIED TO BE A TRUE COPY [email protected] t1je Foard TABLE OF CONTENTS BACKGROUND 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY II. SUMMARY OF TECHNICALISTUDIES III. SUMMARY OF EXISTING PLANS AND POLICIES PART 1. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAM I. INTRODUCTION II. FOCUS AND ORGANIZATION OF PARTICIPATION PROGRAM III. PUBLIC INFORMATION PROGRAM IV. SUMMARY PART 2., RECOMMENDED POLICIES FOR GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT I. INTRODUCTION II. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS PART 3. GENERAL DEVELOPMENT GUIDE PART 4. POTENTIAL AREAS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN PART 5. TECHNICAL STUDIES I. AN ANALYSIS-OF HUMAN AND ECONOMIC RESOURCES II. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING LA ND USE III. ENVIRONMENTALANALYSIS (This analysis with maps is oversized and under separate cover.) IV. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE LAND NEEDS V. ANALYSIS OF GROWTH ALTERNATIVES VI. ANALYSIS OF SEPTIC TANK LIMITATIONS 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY This report represents tile culmination of the first phase of a three-phase land use planning process which is being undertaken.for the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. The report's primary purpose is to present to citizens and elected officials a comprehensive set of policies for the growth and development of the Planning Area. It contains five,major parts: (1) A description and evaluation of the Public Participation Program which has been undertaken to permit full involvement of citizens in the planning process; (2) A set of policies which will provide principles to guide decision making at all levels of city and county government; (3) A General Development Guide which serves to illustrate the policies for growth and development and which will set the parameters for the development of a more detailed land use plan in the second and third phases of the planning 'process; (4) A description of potential Areas of Environmental Concern which may be designated by the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission and a description of the land uses which may be permitted within these critical areas; and (5) A series of six studies which provide the technical support for the recommended policies and the General Development Guide. The purposes of Phases 2 and 3 of the planning process are to, first, develop specificland use recommendations for the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area and, second, to develop the tools which will be required to 4implement these land use recommendations. Through this sequential process,. which evolves successfully more specific land use policies, it is possible "to look at the forest before dealing with the trees." It is projected that Phases 2 and 3 of the Land Us-e Planning Process will be complete by July 1977. RELATION TO THE COASTAL AREA MANAGEMENT ACT The Land Use Planning Process, which is currently underway in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area, has been, in part, a response to the requirements of the Coastal Area Management Act of 1974 (CAMA). This legislation requires that each local government in the coastal area develop a land use plan as a part of a state'wide program for managing North Carolina's coastal resources. The legislation also created the Coastal Resources Commis- sion which has the overall responsibility for implementing the provisions of the legislation. Among other responsibilities, the Coastal Resources Commission was charged with developing a set of guidelines to be used by local governments in the preparation of land use plans. These guidelines which were adopted on January 27, 1975 and amended on October 15, 1975 provide general criteria for the land planning process to insure that local land use plans achieve the resource management objectives set forth in CAMA. The technical studies and analyses undertaken in Phase I of the planning process and the Public Participation Program have been designed to meet or exceed the requirements of the Coastal Resources Commission. II. SUMMARY OF TECHNICAL STUDIES Since the initiation of the Land Use Planning Process in January of 1975, a series of technical studies have been undertaken by the Planning Staff. Basically these studies have served three purposes: (1) To document existing conditions in terms of the Planning Area's present population, its economy, and its existing land use; (2) To forecast future conditions as indicated by projected employment growth and the resulting growth in total population; and (3) To analyze the impact of this projected growth on the Planning Ar.ea's land and public services and facilities. These studies are listed and briefly summarized below. A. TECHNICAL REPORT #1. AN ANALYSIS OF HUMAN RESOURCES This report contains a detailed analysis of the Planning Area's population and economy. It outlines past growth trends in both employment and total population; it discusses the characteristics, or composition, of the area's population and its workforce; and the report provides projections and forecasts of future employment and population levels. The U.S. Census Bureau is the major source'of statistics for this report; however where appropriate census data has been "updated" using secondary sources such as school.enrollment and Employment Security Commission data. The "cohort-survival" technique was used to develop three population projections -- low, moderate, and high. Based on an evaluation of the assumptions used in these projections, the "high" projection of a population of 151j000 by 2000 is considered to be most probable. Using the projection, the Planning Areals total employment in 2000 is expected to be 74,000. B. TECHNICAL REPORT #2. AN ANALYSIS OF EXISTING LAND USE This report outlines the basic information On current land utilization which is required for developing policies for future land use. It addresses both the amount of land committed to various uses and the problems resulting from the location of existing uses and the manner in which they are developed. The analysis is based on a survey of the Planning Area's land uses conducted in the summer of 1973 and updated in the summer of 1975. Six major problems were identified in this study: 1. urban sprawl 2. neighborhood decline 3. strip commercial development 4. over-zoning 5. poor drainage 6. malfunctioning septic tanks C. TECHNICAL REPORT #3. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS This report, consisting primarily of a series of maps (submitted separately), is designed to evaluate the suitability of the Planning Area's land resources for urban-type development. Twelve separate environmental factors such as wetlands, flood plains, drainage characteristics, and historic areas were used in the analysis. The Environmental Analysis identifies 17 square miles of land distributed throughout the Planning Area which are suited for development without exten- sive public investment in sewerage facilities. Centralized sewerage facilities could increase this reserve of suitable land to 52 square miles. D. TECHNICAL REPORT #4. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE LAND NEEDS Technical Repor .t #4 provides estimates of the amount of land which will be required to meet the needs of the Planning Area's projected growth. These estimates were made at two levels of detail. The first level, following the guidelines of the Coastal Resources Commission, provides general estimates of urban, rural. community, and rural land needs. The second level provides detailed estimates of residential, commercial, and industrial land needs. The two land needs estimates for the 1975-20 00 planning period are summarized as follows: Gross Land Needs Detailed Land Needs Category Need Category Need Urban 22 square miles Industrial 7 square miles Rural-Community 14 square miles Commercial 4 square miles Disperse Rural 19 square miles Residential 21 square miles E. TECHNICAL REPORT #5. AN ANALYSIS OF GROWTH ALTERNATIVES This report compares-and evaluates the costs and benefits of six growth alternatives to the Planning Area's residents. The growth alternatives were defined in terms of two variables: projected total population (low, moderate, and high) and the spatial distribution of the development generated by this growth (compact and dispersed). Three major conclusions have been drawn from this study: 1. Growth has positive impacts on the local economy incomes and retail sales increase with growth. 2. The per capita costs of public services remain relatively constant as population increases, but the per capita costs of providing services to a dispersed development pattern are much higher than for a compact development pattern. 3. With proper public investment in sewerage facilities, all three growth levels evaluated can be accommodated on environmentally suited land. F. TECHNICAL REPORT #6. SEPTIC TANK PROBLEMS Technical Report #6 is a "special" study undertaken as a result of the Coastal Resource s Commission's expanded concern for the water quality problems caused by conventional septic tanks. f & The report outlines the dimensions of the Planning Area's existing septic tank problems -- at least 19 subdivisions are presently experiencing chronic septic tank problems. It also identifies the amount of land remaining which is suited for septic tanks -- 17 square miles. it is estimated that this land could support a maximum of 34,000 additional people. of urban, rural community, and rural land needs. The second level provides detailed.estimates of residential, commercial, and industrial land needs. The two land needs estimates for the 1975-2000 planning period are summarized as follows: Gross Land Needs Detailed Land Needs Category Need Category Need Urban 22 square miles Industrial 7 square miles Rural-Community 14 square miles Commercial 4 square miles Disperse Rural 19 square miles Residential 21 square miles E. TECHNICAL REPORT #5. AN ANALYSIS OF GROWTH ALTERNATIVES This report compares and evaluates the'costs and benefits of six growth alternatives to the Planning Area's residents. The growth alternatives were defined in terms of two variables: projected total population (low, moderate, and high) and the spatial distribution of the development generated by this growth (compact and dispersed). Three major conclusions have been drawn from this study: 1. Growth has positive impacts on the local economy incomes and retail sales increase with growth. 2. The per capita costs of public services remain relatively constant as population increases, but the per capita costs of providing services to a dispersed development pattern are much higher than for a compact development pattern. 3. With proper public investment in sewerage facilities, all three growth levels evaluated can be accommodated on environmentally suited land. F. TECHNICAL REPORT #6. SEPTIC TANK PROBLEMS Technical Report #6 is a "special" study undertaken as a result of the Coastal Resources Commission's expanded concern for the water quality problems caused by conventional septic tanks. III. SUMMARY OF EXISTING PLANS AND POLICIES The Coastal Resources Commission's planning guidelines require that local land use plans contain a listing and summary of.existing plans and policies having significant implications for future land uses. In accordance with this requirement, the following.table contains a list of relevant plans, studies, and ordinances which have be-en prepared or enacted in the Wilmington- New Hanover Planning Area. From this list, the Wilmington Area Thoroughfare Plan, the Greater Wilmington 201 Facilities Plan, the Lower Cape Fear Regional Water Supply Plan, and the Wilmington Housing Assistance Plan have been summarized. A. Wilmington Area Transportation Study, prepared by Wilbur Smith and Associates for the N.C. State Highway Commission in cooperation with the City of Wilmington, New Hanover County, and the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration. Wilmington and New Hanover County comprise the most urbanized area in southeastern North Carolina. The State POrt, located at Wilmington, is one of two major seaports serving North Carolina. The growth in population,, trade and industry has resulted in an increasing demand for more and better transportation facilities. In January 1972, "The Wilmington Area Transportation Study" was accepted by the City of Wilmington as a measure of existing and projected transportation needs. (The Thoroughfare Plan was last revised by the City of Wilmington in May 1973). The Thoroughfare Plan as it shall hereafter be called is intended to serve as a plan for a street and highway system which is adequate to accom- modate the transpor.tation demands for the design year 1995. The study area encompasses the Wilmington urbanized area which is approxi- mately 114 square miles in area. Communities in New Hanover County excluded from the study were Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, and Castle Hayne. LIST OF RELEVANT PLANS, STUDIES, AND ORDINANCES PLANS AND ORDINANCES DATE OF ADOPTION AND/OR REVISION NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1. Zoning Ordinance October 1969 2. Subdivision Regulations February 1969 3. Building Code March 1965, update May 1968 4. Septic Tank Regulations February 1975 5. Soil.Erosion and Sedimentation Control Ordinance July 1974 6. Dune Protection Ordinance December 1972 7. Land Development Plan April 1969 8. Preliminary Report on Wind Tide Flooding December 1969 WILMINGTON 1 . Zoning Ordinance Readopt June 1972, update Aug. 19 2. Historic District Zone June 1972 3. Subdivision Regulations May 1974 4. Building Code 'Adopted December 1941,.readopted 5. Land Use Plan May 105' 6. Wilmington Area Thoroughfare Plan 7. Community Facilities Study 1966 May 1973 December 1971 JOINT PROGRAMS Parks and Recreation Master Plan March 1976 REGIONAL PROGRAMS 1. 201 Facilities Plan (Draft) November 1975 2. Lower Cape Fear Regional Water Supply System December 1975 The current roadway in th e study area consists of 140 miles,'the Recommended Thoroughfare.Plan consists of 204.8 miles of roadway. As shown in Table 1, freeways and major thoroughfares comprise a majority of the recommended roadway network mileage for the year 19,95. Table I Total Network Mileage 1995 Recommended Thoroughfare Plan Percent Components Total Miles of Total Freeways 34.6 16.7 Major Arterial 132.6 64.7 Minor Arterial 37.6 18.4 Total 204.8 100.0 Large portions of new mileage will be required to meet the 1995 traffic demands in the Wilmington area. The following new facilities are included in the Thoroughfare Plan: 1. Circumferential Freeway System, beginning at U.S. Route 17 in Brunswick County and extending northerly around the study area and intersecting with Shipyard Boulevard south of the City, is the major network addition. Future volumes assigned to this facility range from approximately 7,000 vehicles per day on the portion west of the Cape Fear River to approxi- mately 25,000 vehicles per day on segments south of Shipyard Boulevard. 2. The Smith Creek Drive Arterial is proposed as a four-lane, divided roadway extending from U.S. Route 74 east of the City to U.S. Route 117.near the Northeast Cape Fear River. An extension of this facility will run south- wardly to the Cape Fear River along Water Street. Projected 1995 traffic on segments of this facility will reach approximately 12,000 vehicles per day. 3. The University Drive facility should be constructed as a four lane major arterial north of and running generally parallel to Wrightsville Avenue. This will provide for an additional travel route in the Oleander-Wrightsville Avenue Corridor. Anticipated traffic volumes on this facility will range between 15,000 and 20,000 vehicles per day in 1995. 4. McRae Avenue to begin at Castle Hayne Road (U.S. 117) near Smith Creek and extend to Grace Street to serve north-south traffic in and out of downtown area with estimated 1995 traffic volumes on this two lane facility range to 7,500 vehicles per day. 5. Independence Boulevard will form the principal north-south travel route in the City. A new facility connecting 23rd Street and Independence Boulevard will extend from Montgomery Avenue at Princess Place Drive to 23rd Street near U.S. Route 117. Other elements of the Independence Boulevard include a new facility south of the present Independence Boulevard extending across Shipyard Boulevard to the proposed southeast freeway segment. Major improvements are also recommended for intersections along existing Independence Boulevard. The 1995 traffic volumes along this route will be about 13,000 vehicles per day. In addition to the construction of new roadways, an extensive widening program is included in the plan. Major widening projects are recommended for such facilities as Castle Hayne Road, Shipyard Boulevard, Princess Place Drive, Wrightsville Avenue, Oleander Drive and N.C. Route 132. B. The Greater Wilmington Area 201 Facilities Plan Part II (Henry Von Oesen and Associates, Inc. Consulting Engineers and Planners, Wilmington. November 1975. In an effort to improve and expand public utility services to meet the growth and public@health demands of the area, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Wrightsville Beach have begun preparation of a 201 Facilities Plan. As a result of the increase in population and extensive development in the Wilmington area, there has been an increasing demand for water and sewer services necessary to maintain the quality of life and protect valuable natural resources. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency publication, Guid ance for PrepariR& A Facilities Plan, requires that any construction of-waste water treatment and disposal facilities, for which federal financial assistance is sought, must be preceeded by a 201 Facilities Plan, which demonstrates the need for the proposed facilities and establishes that the-proposed measures represent the most economical (cost-effective) means of meeting established teffluent and water quality goals)compatible with local environmental and social factors. The 201 Facilities Plan for the Greater Wilmington Area is being prepared to comply with the "E..P.A. Guidelines for a Facilities Plan" and the "Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendements of 1972". The Greater Wilmington 161 Planning Area encompasses the, City of Wilmington, Town of Wrightsville Beach and a large portion of the unincorporated areas of New Hanover County. The following considerations and work tasks of the 201 Facilities Plan are summarized as follows:* a. A discussion of water quality objectives and other management goals. b. An environmental inventory to identify natural, ecological and cultural values that will influence the conclusions and recommendations ultimately reaches in the study. c. A summary of pollution sources, waste loads and water quality. d. An inventory of existing wastewater treatment and collection systems. e. An evaluation of the condition and performance of existing wastewater collection and treatment facilities. f. A study to determine the existence or non-existence of excessive infiltration of inflow into existing wastewater collection systems and a determination of the requirements for further study of the removal of excessive infiltration/inflow. g. An identification of potential sewerage service areas. h. A development of alternative schemes for wastewater treatment and disposal and sludge handling and disposal. i., A cost effective analysis of alternatives. j. An environmental evaluation of alternatives. k. Final selection of the recommended facility plan and development of a plan and schedule for implementation. 1. Public meetings to present the report and its conclusions to the public and to receive input from interested local citizens. M. Publication of the final 201 Facilities Plan (incorp- orating results of public input). The period covered by the "201 Plan" is 20 years beginning with the initial operation of the treatment works. The 20 year period is generally set for 1975 to 1995. Existing facilities now in operation will be used Henry'Von Oesen and Associates, "Greater Wilmington Area 201 Facilities Plan," November 1975, (Draft). and expanded to meet future needs and fundings as a result of recommendations in this plan, e.g. an infiltration/inflow evaluation program and sewer system rehabilitation project in the City of Wilmington, are to begin during 1975. Certain phases of the 20 year planning period goes beyond the year 1995 to year 2000. This is necessary to plan for new intercept or sewers in New Hanover County which will not begin operations until about 198Q. Therefore, the planning period for new interceptors in this plan is set for 20 years (1980 to 2000) and 20 years for treatment works (1975 to 1995). The first ten years of the planning period (1975*to 1985) are the most critical for it is during this period that longstanding serious water quality problems will be corrected. The New Hanover County Commissioners and the Wilmington City Council believe that the 201 Facilities Plan will improve environmental conditions in New Hanover County and provide the county with cleaner wa ter and an adequate wastewater collection and treatment system. C. Regional Water Supply System, Lower Cape Fear Water and Sewer Authority by O'Brien and Gere Engineers. December 1975. The-Lower Cape Fear Water and Sewer Authority was formed to implement water supply projects to meet the needs of the Authority area. Member counties of the Lower Cape Fear Water and Sewer Authority include Bladen, Brunswick, -Columbus, New Hanover, and Pender Counties. The proposed Authority project will extend regional raw water service to rural areas via the pipeline route and rural residential service will be expanded. Water for industrial use will be made available to rural areas in New Hanover and Brunswick Counties. A rural residential water supply is planned for New Hanover County through extensions from the City of Wilmington's system. Engineering studies have identified the need for additional surface water supplies of 13.0 MGD by 1978, increasing to 33.0 MGD by 1985 and 48.0 MGD by 1990. All but a very small percentage of these additional needs will be for rural areas. The following facilities are required to implement the water supply projects to meet the needs of the Authority area. (a) A 45 MGD delivery system with either 48-inch or 54-inch pipelines. (b) Intake and Pumping station at Kings Blu'ff. *(c) A 48-inch diamenter transmission main. *(d) A 3.0 MG control reservoir. *(e) A 24-inch and 12-inch line along U.S. 421, including a booster Pumping station. Sources funding the project: (a) EDA $3,500,000 (b) Coastal Plains Regional Commission $1,000,000 (c) N.C. Clean Water Bond Act $2,782,450 (d) Revenue Bonds purchased by the Farmers Home Administration -- $9,234,550 Annual operating costs have been prepared and used to establish necessary water use charges. An allocation charge of $30,000 per MGD and a user charge of $0.09 per 1,000 gallons will produce annual revenues which exceed costs. A schedule for design and construction of the project has been prepared. A total elapsed time of 39 months will be required to complete the project, from initiation of design activities to completion of construction. The following recommendations were made to the Authority: 1. Approve this Engineering Report, including the recommended facilities for the 45 MGD supply system. 2. Submit this report, along with the necessary grant and loan applications and supporting data to the appropriate funding agencies. 3. Authorize design of the recommended facilities upon receipt of a CPRC Grant and other funds. *These recommended facilities are based on the availability of funds. The estimated project cost of the recommended facilities is $16,517,000 based on 1976 indices. D. Wilmington Housing Assistance Plan. prepared by the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department@ Community Development Division. Wilmington has the potential of offering a variety of types of liveable housing environments. However, it faces severe problems which currently threaten to outweigh its resources. The positive features include both older, historically significant houses as well as r ecent construction, especially of multi-family luxury apartments. The problems include high incidence of substandard houses, lack of financial resources for rehabilitation, and scarcity of homes for low-income persons. As will be seen, efforts are being made to alleviate these unsatisfactory conditions. Of the 19,289 housing units in the city, 3,227 (or 17%) have been found to be substandard. It is es.timated that only 577 of the substandard units are suitable for rehabilitation. This problem affects both owner-occupied and rental properties in equal percentages, but the burden is borne particularly by home-owners, as there is only a 1% vacancy rate in owner-occupied structures, whereas rental properties have a 107. vacancy rate. The low vacancy rate indi- cates that persons wishing to purchase safe, decent housing may not be able to find such, even if they have financial resources to do so. It does not appear that immediate solutions will be found if the present slump in construction of new housing continues. Permits issued in 1975 indicate that there we re 60 permits issued for new construction and 105 permits for demolitions, for a net loss of 45 housing units during one year. Some relief can be expected as economic conditions improve. The housing needs of low-income persons art particularly acute. It is estimated that low-income households needing housing assistance total 3,403 families, including 1,157 elderly households. Information available from 'the Wilmington Housing Authority shows that they have 1,866 rental units, which at the present time are at 100% occupancy. There are also other types of @z 0 publicly subsidized housing., However, current waiting lists for public housing and other estimates show that there are still unmet needs for housing for low-income families. Several programs are being planned to combat Wilmington's housing problems. First, $600,000 of the City s Community Development Block Grant from HUD has been-set aside for a housing rehabilitation program. Under the auspices Of the.Urban Reinvestment Task Force, a Neighborhood Housing Service will be established, providing assistance to homeowners desiring to bring their homes up to standard. Financial assistance in the form of loans will be available both from private lending institutions and from a "high-risk" revolving loan fund. A rehabilitation self-help program is being planned to provide training in construction skills for residents of the rehabilitation areas. Second, the City has decided to use $277,496 from its "S'e@tion 8" alloca- tion from HUD to build the first of two 150-unit highrise facilities for housing the elderly. It is anticipated that a health and recreational facility will also be included in the complex. The City is also investigating other uses of Section 8 monies, such as providing rental assistance for existing or rehabilitated housing. In addition, the City's Minimum Housing Code has been thoroughly revised, *with a new emphasis on remedial rather than punitive administration. A Housing Services Counselor now works with persons whose homes have been found to be substandard, providing assistance in securing a contractor or seeking financial resources for repairs. It is hoped that these and other efforts will enable the City to overcome some of its housing problems. WILMINGTON-EY PANOVER PLANNI[b DEPARITE9 COMPREHENSIVE PLANNHE PROGRAM PUBLIC PARTICIPATIll PROGIN MAY 1976 1. INTRODUCTION The Coastal Area Management Act of 1974, which was passed by the North Carolina General Assembly, requires that each of the state's coastal counties develop a land use plan which "achieves responsible and needed growth within the capacity of the land and adjacent waters to sustain it". The Act also stat-es "that the Land Use Plan of each county should reflect the desires, needs@ and best interests of citizens residing within the county". In its "Guidelines for Local Planning", the CoastalResources Commission has stated that, in the process of formulating future land use policies, "it is important to employ effective methods to secure the view of a wide cross- section of citizens representing not only each different geographic area of the county, but those who can ably represent the varying economic-, 8ocial, 'ethnic, and cultural interests as well". Further, in implementing this policy, the Commission requires that the final land use policies adopted by local officials contain a statement outlining the methods used to secure public participation and an assessment of the degree to which these methods have been successful. In accordance with this requirement, the purpose of this report is to outline the organization of the Wilmington-New Hanover Public Participation Program, to describe the activities which have been undertaken as a part of this program; and to assess the overall effectiveness of the program in achieving participation. II. FOCUS AND ORGANIZATION OF PARTICIPATION PROGRAM The Coastal Resources Commission's publication, "Guidelines for Public Participation", provides an excellent concept of public participation in the planning process. The guidelines suggest that public participation includes two separate but related activities -- public information and public invo.lvement. Public information programs insure that citizens understand the county's problems and the procedures involved in the planning process. Public involvement programs give citizens the opportunity to participate, with elected officials and the professional planning staff, in the formulation of land use policies. As stated in the Commission's guidelines, in order to achieve effective and informed public participation, it is necessary to give equdl emphasis to both steps on a continuing basis, for it accomplishes little to inform the citizen without encouraging him to participate in the planning process, and even less to get him involved if he is not informed. The Public Participation Program which has been undertaken for the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area has given proper emphasis to both informa- tion and involvement. A. CITIZEN INVOLVEMENT PROCESS The fundamental goal of the Wilmington-New Hanover Public Participation Program is to obtain the effective involvement of citizens from all parts of the Planning Area and from all socio-economic groups in the formulation of public policies for the growth and development of the Planning Area. The programs which have been designed to achieve this goal are an outgrowth of the evaluation of several alternatives, ranging from neighborhood or community meetings to public hearings and questionnaires, and they are judged by the planning staff to represent t .he best features of available techniques consistent with the very severe time constraints of the coastal management program. Eighteen months is a short time to build an effective participa- tion program. The basic concept of citizen involvement in the Planning Area is simple the organization of a number of citizen groups throughout the area to discuss problems and identify priority concerns, to formulate future development goals-based on these concerns 3and eventually to evaluate the effectiveness of development plans designed to achieve these goals. The objective of this approach is to recreate the "town meeting" atmosphere so that each resident has the opportunity to become intimately involved with elected officials and their staff in the planning process -- an opportunity not always available with more traditional techniques such as questionnaires or public hearings. Implementation of the Citizen Involvement Process has required five major steps: 1. Subdivision of the County into ten Planning Districts to provide a basis for obtaining the desired geographic perspect.ive on Planning Area problems and goals; 2. Selection of Coordinators in each Planning District to provide citizen leadersip for the citizen involvement process; 3. Formation of Planning District Task Forces, or citizen organizations, to identify problems and to set goals; 4. Execution of Task Force activities; and 5. Synthesis of problems and goals at Planning Area level through the joint efforts of the Planning Staff and elected officials. 1. Delineation of Planning Districts Experience seems to indicate that the most successful citizen participation programs are those based on small geographic areas where participants have a sense of "neighborliness" or commonality and are able to express ideas more Jot c NE L N T- FL INGTO PL G Al s RO I L -A N DON ROA M @ND 'A NG ic Dis T IS cw Z Dis M C. H, p".1 G ROA CT P N G DI TRIC lip) MAP I NEW FMOVER C"TY WILUNGTON-NEWHANOvER PLANNING CommissioN topics were discussed, including the requirements of the Coastal Area Management Act, citizen perceptions of existing community problems, and the findings of various technical planning studies prepared by the planning staff. To facilitate the actual identification of community problems and to determine which of these problems were of priority concern., a group process known as Nominal Group Technique was utilized. Nominal Group Technique is a.problem identification and problem solving process which encourages each individual to generate his own list of ideas or problems; it allows each of these problems to be discussed equally and in detail by the group; and finally it allows the group to determine which of these problems should receive priority attention. This technique is considered to be particularly well-suited for the participation program which has been conducted in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. By forcing groups to focus on the task of identifying develop- mental problems, the technique is efficient, and efficiency is an important factor considering the time constraints of the Coastal Area Management Act. In addition the technique encourages the full participation of each member of the Planning District groups. Nominal Group Technique permits each person to put his ideas before the group, and it allows each of these ideas to receive equal attention in the process of setting priorities. A list of the seven most important problems, or concerns, which were identified in each of the ten Planning Districts is presented in Table 1. These priority concerns are the basis for the policy objectives which have been identified for the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. After the meetings using the Nominal Group Technique were completed, the priority concerns from throughout the Planning Area were utilized to develop a tentative set of objectives for future development. These tentative objectives were then dis- cussed with the citizen groups and the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Commission. The comments and criticisms identified in these reviews were incorporated Table 1. PRIORITY CITIZEN PLANNING CONCERNS A. Middle Sound 1. Runoff from septic tanks into creeks and marshes causing pollution. 2. a. Poor land drainage. b. Lack of enforcement of zoning laws. 3. Poor soil causes septic tank problems. 4. Lack of safe and adequate water supply in area. 5. Erosion due to runoffs, tides and boats. 6. a. Overcrowding (too many people). b. Development of unsuitable land because of cost factors. 7. Proper control of commercial development. B. Masonboro-Myrtle Grove 1. Quantitatively and specifically identify causes of coastal water pollution, i.e. red flagging. 2. Overdevelopment of subdivisions. 3. Inform the steering committee of any changes on zoning, road construction, etc. 4. Drainage. 5. Masonboro Island. 6. a. Outer Loop. b. Recreation. 7. Encroachment of commercial uses into residential area. C. Flemington 1. Landfill in residential area. 2. Too much industry in district. 3. Air pollution from local industry. 4. a. Roads in Planning District are not maintained. b. Too much noise and traffic. c. No buffer zone between residential area and industrial area. 5. No mosquito control in the area. 6. No traffic enforcement. 7. No traffic control light. D. River Road 1. County-wide sewage system. 2. Recreation area similar to Empie Park at Monkey Junction. 3. Establish marshes, rivers, and Masonboro Island as area of environmental concern. 4. Ditches maintained in developments. County officials irresponsible in cases of subdivision problems. 5. County needs to implement thoroughfare plan. 6. No mixture of residential densities. Too much spot zoning for mobile homes and small businesses. 7. Improve and fill unauthorized dumps. County maintain drainage ditches. 6 K. M-'.1411'ey crenk I Improper drainnge in developments. 2. County-wide sewage system. 3. Protected transportation arteries to Wrightsville Beach. 4. Establish areas of environmental concern, establish marshlands, rivers and Masonboro Island. 5. a. County officials irresponsbile in cases of subdivision and development problems. b. Central water system.. 6. a. Lack of proper facilities for trash disposal. b. Too much spot zoning for mobile homes and small businesses. .7. Improve and fill unauthorized dump. F. Pleasure Island 1. a. Unsuitable land for septic tanks is being approved for development. b. Beach erosion. 2. a. Improvement of drainage in development. b. Pollution of waterways in Pleasure Island and Wrightsville Beach. C. Excessive tise of septic tanks. 3. a. County-wide sewage system. b. Improper fill and unauthorized dumps. 4. Lack of proper facilities for trash disposal. 5. a. County is not maintaining drainage ditches. b. Desecration of woodlands in buffer zone along river at Carolina Beach. G. Murraysville-Gordon Road 1. County-wide sewage system. 2. Erosion of soil. 3. Central water system. 4. a. Improve drainage in developments. b. County is not maintaining drainage ditches. 5. Recreation facilities. 6. Owners will not keep ditches clear in developments. 7. a. Lackof proper facilities for trash disposal. b. Excessive use of septic tanks. H.- Castle Hayne 1. Tax incentives for farmers. 2. Drainage -- lack of stringent ordinances regulating land development; lack of enforcement of existing regulations. 3. Air pollution from industries.. 4. Planned county-wide sewer system not wa*nted. 5. Proliferation of industries in unsuitable locations. 6. Absence of citizen particpation in important public decisions. 7. Current property taxes unfair to farmer. 1. Wrightsboro 1. Lack of stringent ordinances regulating land development; existing ordinances poorly enforced. 2. Beltline or Outer Loop Highway needed but should not be routed through existing residential areas or prime agricultural areas. 3. Airport noise. 4. No county-wide parks. 5. Improper county equipment to maintain drainage ditches. 6. Proliferation of industries in unsuitable locations. 7. Excessive traffic on Highway 117. I.-nto the tentative policy objectives, and a final set of recommendations were prepared for consideration by the Planning Area's elected officials the Wilmington City Council and the New Hanover County Board of Commissioners. III. PUBLIC INFORMATION PROGRAM Public information has been the second major aspect of the Public Participation Program in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. As stated in the Coastal Resources Commission's "Guidelines for Local Planning citizens cannot be expected to participate effectively in the process of planning for the future if they are not aware of existing and potential local problems and are not familiar with the public planning process. Therefore, information has been a major concern throughout the Public Participation Program. Since the Public Participation Program was initiated a number of public information meetings have been conducted in each of the Planning Districts. Where possible an attempt has been made to obtain expert speakers to address the priority problems in each Planning District. For example', br. Joe Phillips, an Agronomist from North Carolina State University, spoke to one group on the relationship between soils and septic tanks. Table 2 contains a list of the topics covered at the public information meetings. In addition to the public information meetings, the planning staff has attempted to use the media as widely as possible to insure that the residents of the Planning Area are well-informed on the requirements of the Coastal 'Management Program and on the planning program which has been undertaken to meet these requirements. There have been a total of ten television interviews. Two of these public service television programs lasted one full hour. There have also been a total of fifty-four short public service announce- ments on both radio and television, and the planning program has been reported in the local newspaper sixteen times. 3_3 Table 2. Public Information Meeting Topics 1. The Coastal Area Management Act and the New Hanover County Citizen Participation Program Bill Farris, Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. 2. Land Drainage Systems George Taylor, USDA Agriculture Conservation Service. 3. Pollution of Shellfish Areas -- Bob Benton, N.C. DNER Shellfish Sanitation. 4. Soils and Septic Tanks -- Dr. Joe Phillips, Agronomist North Carolina State University. 5. Countywide 201 Facilities Plan -- Col. Paul Dineson, Henry Von Oesen and Associates. 6. Widening of Carolina Beach Inlet -- David Patchell, U.S. Corps of Engineers. 7. Airport Zoning -- Harry Oakes, Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. 8. Countywide Recreation Plan -- Gardner Gidley, Gardner Gidley Associates Recreation Planners. 9. Southeastern Segment of the Wilmington Outer Loop -- William Pollard and Roy Freeman, Jr. of William S. Pollard Consultants, Inc. (retained by NCDOT). 10. Community Water and Sewer Systems -- Bob Williams, New Hanover County Engineer. 11. Pollution of Howe Creek and the Sound -- Tyndell Lewis, N.C. Department of Natural and Economic Resources. 12. Spot Zoning and Development -- Bill Farris, Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. 13. Population and Economic Study of New Hanover County -- Ron Brown and Bill Farris, Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. 14. Pros and Cons of a Sanitary Land Fill Rick Shiver, N.C. Department of Natural and Economic Resources. IV. S UMMARY Since the initiation of the Wilmington-New Hanover Public Participation Program in the late spring of 1975, over sixty meetings have been held to discuss community problems and the plans which have been designed to solve these problems. At these meetings almost 1900 area residents have become involved in the coastal planning process. The Planning Department currently maintains a mailing list of 1900 residents, and regularly sends each of these residents a newsletter which summarizes planning progress, and which informs them of evolving problems such as rezoning requests. Numbers of meetings and numbers of people attending meetings are not a good measure of the effectiveness of a Public Participation Program. The measure of effectiveness actually lies in the successful impl'ementation of the plans which evolve from the process and ultimately the effectiveness of those plans in achieving the goals toward which they are directed. However, it is the opinion of the planning staff that the Public Participation Program which has been undertaken in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area has been effective. A substantial number of area residents are familiar with the major problems which will confront this community over the next twenty-five years and they are also familiar with the plans which have been developed to deal with those problems. In addition the planning staff has gained an inval- uable understanding of the values, the aspirations, and the major concerns of its clients -- the residents of the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. All of these are essential ingredients in an effective planning program. 3J_ WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING PROGRAM RECOMMENDED POLICIES FOR GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT DRAFT APRIL 291 1976 AMENDMENTS The following is a description of the Planning Commission's recommended changes resulting from review and dis.cussion of the recommended policies: Section II, A. (3) (c) - Pg. 9: Change "shall" to "should." Section II, A. (3) (f) - Pg. 10: Change "shall" to "should." Section 11, B. (1) (a) - Pg. 11: Insert "seafood" at end of sentence. Section II, B. (1) (c) - Pg. 13: Insert "appropriate site improvements are made or" between "as" and "centralized." Also, revise last sentence to read "Where septic tanks are permissible, no part of the system shall be any closer than 100 feet to estuarine waters and drainageways which discharge to estuarine waters." Section II, B. (2) (a) - Pg. 14: Strike "...the county's poor soils" and insert "those soils of the county which are unsuitable for waste disposal." Same Section, last paragraph: Change "impacted" to "affected." Section II, B. (2) (c) Pg. 15: First policy statem;nt change "prohibited" to "restricted." Section II, B. (3) (c) - Pg. 16: Add at end of second policy statement "or other uses which would not have the effect of damaging or altering the natural function of the marsh." Section II., B. (4) (c) - Pg. 17: Strike out all of policy recommendation No. 2 and replace with "Based on an analysis of the Planning Area's future local and export mineral resource needs, prime resource sites should be identified and protected from incompatible development." Same Section, last policy recommendation: Replace "impacts" with 1'effects on surrounding areas." Section II, B. (5) (a) - Pg. 17: In finding No. 2 change "an extreme" to "a significant." Same Section, Finding No. 2 - Pg. 18: Change "can" to "may" and strike Ifeasily." Same Section, last paragraph - Pg. 18: Change "threat" to "danger." Also, after "The New Hanover County Airport" add "and its approach patterns over populated areas." Section II, B. (5) (c) - Pg. 19: In first policy recommendation strike "no" and change "permitted" to "discouraged." Section II, C. (2) Pg. 21: Change "insure" to "encourage." Section II, C. (3) - Pg. 21: In second policy recommendation put a period (.) after "avoided.". Also, strike "and" and begin new sentence with "The development of Also, put comma after "parks." Same Section - Pg. 22: Change policy recommendation No. 10 to read "Housing market information will be provided to the real estate industry to assist in meeting consumers' housing needs, both numbers and types." Section II, D. (3) - Pg. 23: In policy recommendation No. 3 strike "Outer Loop"; add "or route" between "highway" and "shall"; and change "minimal negative impact" to "least adverse effect." In policy recommendation No. 5 put "In the future design of thoroughfares," at the beginning. Section II, E. (1) - Pg. 24: In finding No. 5 strike the quotation marks; Strike "There is no" at beginning and begin new sentence with "Public"; and, add "is inadequate" to the end. Section II,.F. (3) - Pg. 26: In third policy recommendation change "fiscal techniques" to "tax benefits.!' I. INTRODUCTION A. BACKGROUND The past decade has brought tremendous change to the citizens of Wilmington and the surrounding areas of New Hanover County. Expanded economic development has produced more industries, more shopping facilities and more jobs. It has also attracted large number of new families and has stemmed the flow of young people out of the county in search of jobs. Equally important has been the-change in the area's landscape. New factories, new shopping centers, new apartment complexes, and new residen- tial subdivisions have gone hand-in-hand with the area's growth. Much of this new development.has taken place in formerly rural areas where the public was not prepared to service it, creating a demand for the investment of tax dollars for new services, such as water and sewer facilities, and for the expansion of existing services, such as police and fire protection. In addition,factories, stores, and residences have been built in areas where the land is not really suited for intensive development. This decade of change has brought with it concerns on the part of many residents. These concerns are for threats to the quiet, rural life-style enjoyed by many residents; for environmental degradation resulting from unsound development practices; and perhaps most concretely, for rising tax bills which can be attributed, at least partially, to inefficient urban development. In response to these concerns, the Wilmington-New HanoverPlanning De- partment, a joint agency of city and county governments, began the preparation of a comprehensive plan in 1974. The basic purpose of this planning effort is to develop an effective growth management program which will permit continued expansion of the area's economy while minimizing the taxpayers' C7 costs for services and preventing further damage to the area's environmental resources. Concurrent with the initiation of this planning program, the North Carolina General Assembly enacted the Coastal Area,Management Act of 1974 (CAMA). This legislation requires that local governments develop land use plans in accordance with specifications adopted by the Coastal Resources Commission, the organization having overall responsibility for implementing CAMA. Therefore, the technical studies undertaken and issues addressed in the planning program have been strongly influenced by the Coastal Management legislation. The planning program has been organized to include three phases. Phase 1. -- Policies for @rban Growth and Development: Addresses the basic questions of how much growth is desirable, where growth should occur, and'what types of growth should be encouraged? Phase 2. -- Detailed Land Use Recommendations: The outcome of this phase will be specific recommenda- tions on the location and proper interrelationships of major land uses. Phase 3. -- Land Management Tools: Develops recommenda- tions concerning the adoption of land management tools -- amending existing zoning ordinances and subdivision regulations, as well as new concepts. B. PHASE 1 RECOMMENDATIONS As stated in a growth policy report by the New Hanover County Environ- mental Impact Committee, IlThe freedom of an individual to use his land as he wishes has traditionally been cherished as an implicit value of American life. However, as land beoomes developed, indi- vidual freedoms often conflict. Protection of the private property rights of some often results in the restriction of the rights of other individuals and of the community as a whole. There is a need for balancing private rights, the public interest and the natural capabilities of the land to set mutual goals. These goals should protect what we most value in the environmental, cultural and aesthetic char- acteristics of the land while meeting the essential needs of the growing population for housing, transportation, recreation, industrial facilities and businesses." The pUrpose of this report is to present the Planning Staff's policy recommendations which have grown out of the technical studies and the Public Participation Program which were undertaken in Phase 1 of the planning program. Taken as a body, these recommendations define a need, suggest appropriate objectives for meeting that need, and recommend policies which are means of achieving these objectives. .Seven separate areas of policy have been addressed: A. Urban Growth B. Environmental Quality C. Land Use D. Transportation E. Recreation and Open Space F. Agriculture and Forestry G. Historic and Archeological Sites These policies, when adopted by the Wilmington City Council and the New Hanover County Board of Commissioners, will provide a set of"peinciples to guide decision-making at all levels of city and county government, whether these decisions relate to a petition for rezoning, the extension of water and sewer services, the location of a new school or some other question concerning growth and development in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. II. POLICY RECOMMENDAT IONS A. Urban Growth The need for a formal policy regarding growth in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area has been supported both by the technical studies undertaken by the planning staff and by the concerns expressed by the area is citizens through the Public Participation Program. The areals recent growth has brought.4 degree of economic prosperity to many residents. At the same time, however, the impact of this growth is a matter of concern to many citizens and public officials. Growth and its attendant problems has had a detrimental 'effect on the area's natural resources; it has created extreme pressure on existing city and county services, as well as escalated demands for new services; and it has produced an unwanted change in the life-style of many residents. 1. Findings The major findings which form the basis for the planning staff's recommended growth policy stem from the results of the staff's technical reports and the Planning Area's Public Participation Program. a. Population Growth Recent growth trends are expected to continue. Increasing from a current level of approximately 94,000, the county's population will range between 123,000 and 151,000 by the year 2000. The most current information available indicates that the projected population level of 151,000 is most probable. As in the recent past, it is expected that the bulk of this growth will take place in the suburban and rural parts of the Planning Area where services are poorly developed. 4 Zt b. Income As measured by median income, the economic well-being of all Planning Area residents has improved significantly in recent years; however, there remains a gap between the incomes of.local residents and the incomes of other prosperous urban areas of North Carolina. In spite of the Planning Area's,economic gains, there also remains a substantial number of families which are economically disadvantaged. These.poor families are predominantly black, city residents, and a large percentage (45 percent) have female heads. Studies of the local economy have shown that rising incomes are closely paralleled by an increase in the number of people employed in the manufacture of durable goods. Durables employment is generally characterized by higher technical skill requirements, higher productivity, and higher wages. Expansion In the number of jobs requiring high technical skills tends to have a significant positive impact throughout the economy by introducing a degree of upward mobility into the workforce. Semi-skilled workers can move into higher paying skilled jobs, and the unemployed and under-employed can fill the jobs vacated by the semi-skilled. Such a process, however, requires an open job market and innovations in vocational education programs. A study of the area's economy indicates that the five economic sectors with the greatest impact on income at present are: 1) chemicals 2) trade 3) transportation, communication, and utilities 4) metals 5) apparel These sectors should receive prime consideration in the Planning Area's economic development program. -5 Z43 C. Land Requirements A significant amount of Ian d will be required to meet the needs of the Planning Area's projected growth. It is estimated that, at the highest growth rate, 30 square miles of land will be required for residential, commercial, and industrial uses alone. This estimate is expanded to allow for adequate choice and flexibility in site selection. -However, this land requirement can be accommodated on environmentally suited land. Final estimates indicate that approximately 52 square miles of vacant land are suited for development (With proper improvements). Approxi- mately 58 percent of this reserve would be consumed by the "high" population projection, indicating that, even with a high growth rate, environmentally unsuited lands need not be developed. d. Urban Sprawl Experience in New Hanover County, as well as other areas, indicates that, if left entirely to the direction of the free market, development would occur in a widely scattered, haphazard pattern. Urban sprawl is costly to the taxpayers. An analysis of growth alterna- tives for the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area indicates that the costs of providing basic services to a sprawling development pattern may be more than two-times greater than to a compact development pattern. In some cases, sprawling development patterns may render the provision of needed services economically infeasible because overall development densi- ties are too low. e. Sewerage Services Engineering studies indicate that a centralized system for collecting, treating, and disposing of sewage is essential to alleviate existing septic tank pro blems and to prevent sewage problems generated by future development. __L_ It is estimated that there remains a maximum of 11,000 acres of undeveloped land which is suited for septic tanks within the Planning Area. As a result of the existing proliferation of septic.tanks in unsuited soils, 19 residential subdivisions currently experience septic tank problems. Centralized sewerage facilities are expensive. and normally they cannot be financed without federal and state: assistance. Combined 'Lederal/state aid can be as much as 87.5 percent of eligible sewerage costs, but only if guidelines are met. The most relevant guidelines from the standpoint of growth policy are the following: .1) Projects must be the most cost-effective alternative for meeting water quality goals; 2) Projects must be energy-efficient; and, 3) Projects must be environmentally sound. These guidelines favor a comIpact development pattern, where'pr'actical. f. Loss of Farmland The loss of prime agriculture land to development is an important con- cern in the Planning Area. Even though full-time employment in agriculture has declined for the past several years, it still represents a significant source of part-time employment for area residents. In addition, through the Public Participation Program, area residents have expressed a strong desire to preserve agriculture as a way-of-life in New Hanover County. 9. Capitalize on Existing Investments The multi-million dollar investments of New Hanover County and its municipalities in public improvements and of the private sector in existing buildings and other facilities are most readily optimized by encouraging compact development around existing developed areas. 2. Policy Objectives Based on these findings, the following policy objectives have been defined for urban growth in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning area: 1) To increase the accessibility of all Planning Area residents to the basic economic goods and services--food, clothing, decent housing, health care, and recreation--as indicated by rising median incomes among all groups of the population. 2) To enable the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County to deliver necessary basic urban services to urban development in the most cost-effective manner. 3) To enable local governments and private interests to capitalize on existing investments in buildings and other facilities in the extension of services to presently unserved areas. 4) To reduce any existing or po'tential tax inequities by insuring that taxes are proportional to the, cost of services consumed. 5) To improve the Planning Area's long term energy efficiency particularly as it relates to service delivery and transportation. 6) To improve the efficiency of land utilization and thereby reduce the development pressure on prime agricultural lands and environmentally sensitive areas. 7) To reduce the uncertainty of the real estate market as it relates to the provision of public services and thereby to lend greater security to the long-term investments of property owners. 3. Recommended Policies a. Quantity Three major considerations shall be used as guidelines for decisions which have the effect of altering the Planning Area's rate of growth: 1) the impact of growth on the economic well-being of the Planning Area's residents; 2) the financial capability of local government to provide services to new residents; and, 3) the impact of growth on the Planning Area's quality of life. b. Quality In order to insure that the' residents of the Wilmington-New Hanover Plannina Area receive the greatest benefits from economic expansion, economic development programs shall be encouraged to give priority to indiistries and establishments which have the effect of diversifying the local'economy, which require a more highly skilled labor force, and which have the overall effect of increasing the area's median income. c. Distribution Future urban development (consisting of all residential subdivisions having a density of two (2) dwelling units per acre or greater, commercial establishments having a net usable area of 5,000 square feet or more, and industries employing more than 25 workers) shall be contained within the geographical limits of a defined, but flexible, Urban Services Area. The purpose of the Urban ServicesArea is to encourage a compact development pattern and to permit delivery of basic urban services--sewerage, water facilities, and police and fire protection--efficiently and effectively. d. Factors of Urban Services Area Delineation In drawing the initial boundaries of the Urban Services Area, the following factors shall be considered: 1) projected land use needs (10 years); 2) the location and supply of land which is environmentally suited for development; 3) a long-range service delivery plan (12 years) which specifies expected service needs, expected service costs, and the approximate revenues which will be available to fund public services; Zf 7 4) th'e need for cooperation with governments outside the Planning Area in meeting mutual service needs; and, 5) existing critical needs related to the health and/or safety of Planning Area residents. e. Initial Priority of Service Delivery In the development of new services and the expansion of existing services, areas which are currently developed at urban densities but not serviced shall receive priority. f. Land Use-Plan Outside Urban Services Boundaries In the development of detailed land use plans, the area outside the urban services boundary shall be maintained by low-density residential areas, rural communities, open space lands, farms, and other uses compatible with the intent of the urban growth policy. g. Expansion of Urban Services Boundary When there is a demonstrated need and a positive cost-revenue ratio can be shown, the boundary of the Urban Services Area shall be expanded, using the same criteria as outlined above. In any case the extent of the Urban Services Area shall be reviewed at least once every five years. When the boundary is extended, land use plans for the expansion area shall be revised. h. Urban Development Outside Urban Services Boundaries Urban level development shall be permitted outside the Urban Services Boundary only in such cases where the developer agrees to reimburse local governments for the full cost of extending basic services or the developer agrees to provide services in compliance with standards set by local governments. 1. Real Property Appraisal As provided for in the North Carolina Machinery Act, the differing zf development potentials of land lying within and outside,the Urban Services Area shall be fairly reflected in the property appraisal for tax purpos es. B. ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 1. Surface_Water Quality a. Findings Surface water is, perhaps, the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area's most important natural resource. Under North Carolina General Statute 113-229(n)(2), virtually all of the waters of New Hanover County are classified as estuarine waters. Estuaries are highly productive natural environments, having value for almost everyone. Some of the values are reflected simply in the richness of the life-style enjoyed by'residents of the Planning Area. Estuarine waters are a major aesthetic attraction and a recreational outlet for large numbers of residents. The estuary's value is also reflected in the market place. Species which are dependent upon the estuary during part or all of their life cycle--menhaden, shrimp, flounder, oysters, and crabs--makeup over 90 percent of the total value of North Carolina's commercial catch. Thus, jDaintenance of these estuarine waters in the best possible condition is essential for protecting the value of the area's residents; yet according to information contained in a draft of the Greater Wilmington 201 Facilities@Plan, the water quality picture in all.of New Hanover County is rather poor. The North Carolina Division of Environmental Managelnent considers the following stream segments to be below desirable water quality standards: 1) Smiths Creek from Burnt Mill Creek to the Northeast Cape Fear River; 2) The Mouth of Bradley Creek; and, 3) The sound waters in the vicinity of Wrightsville Beach. From the standpoint of shellfishing where standards are more stringent, the water quality problem is more extensive. According to the North Carolina Shellfish Sanitation Program, most of the creeks in the eastern segment of New Hanover County, most of the sound waters in and around Wrightsville Beach, a large portion of Myrtle Grove Sound, Snows Cut, and the lower Cape Fear River Estuary are closed to shellfishing. The Planning Area's water quality problems can be attributed to several sources--the discharges from municipal waste treatment plants, the discharges from private waste treatment plants, industrial discharges, urban runoff, agricultural runoff, and malfunctioning septic tanks. b. Policy Objective Based on these findings, the following policy objective has been defined for surface water quality in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area: Preserve and enhance the quality of the Planning Area's surface waters to increase and perpetuate their value--biological, economic, recreational, and aesthetic--to the residents of the area. c. Recommended Policies The following policies are recommended in order to achieve the objectives concerning the preservation and enhancement of the qualityiof the Planning Area's surface waters: 1). The quality and quantity of runoff from urban development and agricultural activities entering the estuarine waters of the Planning Area shall be as near to a natural condition as possible. To this end: a) The system of land drainage shall be maintained as near to natural patterns as possible; b) During the site development process, the maximum possible amount of suit- able vegetation shall be maintained intact; i2 c) A suitable natural or vegetated buffer shall be maintained between drainage ways and development activites, unless it is clearly demonstrated to be infeasible; and, d) Evaluate the implementation of the New Hanover County Soil Erosion and Sedi- mentation Control Ordinance to insure that its objectives are being met. 2) Where soil conditions require lowering of the water table to permit development, it must be clearly shown that the artificial land drainage will not seriously affect the quality and salinity of estuarine waters. 3) In the development of centralized sewage collection and treatment facilities, priority will be given to those areas experiencing chronic septic tank failures, areas where septic tanks have been placed in unsuited soils, and to developments currently discharging sewage effluent into the marshes and estuaries in the eastern and southern portions of the Planning Area. 4) To upgrade the quality of the surface waters df the Planning Area every feasible action will be taken to improve the quality of existing municipal sewage dis- charges and where possible to eliminate these discharges. 5) No new sewage discharges shall be permitted in the marshes and estuaries of the eastern and southern portions of the Planning Area. 6) Urban type development in areas where septic tanks are expected to malfunction will be prohibited until such times as centralized sewer services are available. Where septic tanks are permissible, no part of the system shall be any closer than 100 feet from drainage- ways, streams, ponds, and estuarine waters. 2. Ground Water Quality a. Findings A majority of families and a significant number of industries in New Hanover County are presently dependent upon ground water. Outside of the City of Wilmington, all water whether from individual wells or private. systems, comes from groundwater. While the quantity 0f groundwater is at this time adequate, in many instances it is not of the best quality and generally presents problems for use as adomestic supply because of iron, hardness, corrosiveness, or chloride content. In addition, there is the potential for salt water intrusion due to the increased pumping demands of a growing population. These existing and potential ground water quality problems are complicated by the county's poor soils and the urbanization currently taking place in the unincorporated areas. More people bring more septic tanks, and the prolif- eration of septic tanks increase the threat of ground water pollution in many areas. Engineering studies have concluded that a county-wide water treatment and distribution system is needed to meet the needs of the Planning Area's projected growth; however, such a system is only in the early planning stages, and its implementation is a number of years away. In the interim, the county's ground water supply must be carefully managed to insure adequate quality and quantity. Ground water supplies are replenished from several sources; however, from the standpoint of local ground water management, aquifer recharge areas ar e the most important sources of replenishment. Precipitation and surface whter move into the ground water supply in these areas. The rate of recharge as well as the quality of water entering the underground supply is substan- tially impacted by the type of development and land uses permitted in major aquifer recharge areas. b. Policy Objective Based on these findings, the following policy objective has been defined for ground water quality in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area: To insure the long-term maintenance and improvement of the quantity and quality of the Planning Area's ground water supply. C Recommended Policies In order to achieve the objective of long-term maintenance and improve- ment of the Planning Area's ground water supply the following-policies are recommended: 1) The further use of septic tanks for sewage disposal in the Planning Area's primary aquifer recharge areas will be prohibited, unless it is clearly demonstrated that the use of septic systems will not lower the quality of ground water resources. 2) The introduction of untreated industrial wastes into the ground water shall be prohibited. 3) In primary recharge areas, developers shall be encouraged to minimize inpervious surface areas to permit maximum infiltration and ground water recharge. 4) Where artificial drainage to lower the water table is required to permit development such drainage shall not have a significant impact on the ground water supply. 3. Wetlands a. Findings The wetlands of New lianover County consist of low salt marsh, high salt marsh, brackish marsh, and riverine wooded swamps. These are the most productive of the county's natural resources, performing several vital functions, including the following: regulation of the quality and quantity of runoff water entering the estuary; provision of a vital habitat for wild- life and waterfowl; provision of the basic nutrients for the estuarine.food web (90 percent of the total North Carolina commercial catch are estuarine dependent species); and provision of an aesthetic attraction. b. Policy Objective Based on the findings of the environmental analysis the following objective has been defined for the Planning Area's wetlands: TO proserve. and manage the Planning Area's wetlands ill Order to safeguard and perpetuate their biological, 11CM1011lic, and aesLlleLic values. c. Recommended Polici.es In order to achieve the objective of preservation and management of .the Planning Area's wetlands the following policies are recommended: 1) No development or activity will be permitted in an area of low tidal marsh which would have the effect of damaging or altering the natural function of the marsh. 2) High salt marshes, brackish marshes, and riverine wooded swamps will be developed only for uses which require water access. 3) The vital functions of the high marshes, brackish marshes, and riverine wooded swamps must be accomo- dated in the site planning process for all permitted uses. 4. Mineral Resources a. Findings New Hanover County contains two important mineral resources--sand and limestone. According to the latest employment statistics, industrial activities based on these resources employed approximately 290 workers in 1974. In addition, in 1973 mineral production in the county was about 12 percent Of the state's total. b. Policy Objective Based on the findings of the environmental analysis the following objective has been defined regarding the Planning Area's mineral resources: To recognize mineral deposits as non-renewable resources, to preserve sites where mineral extraction is economically, feasible, and to minimize the impact of mineral extraction on other land uses. _L6_ - C . Recommended Policies In order to achieve the objective defined for the Planning Area's mineral deposits the following policies are recommended: 1) The cooperation of the state geologist will be sought to develop a more complete study of New Hanover County's sub-surface geology and to specifically identify prime mineral resource sites. 2) A cost-benefit analysis will be undertaken for each of these sites to determine if the benefits of mineral extraction outweigh the cost of the extractive industry's impact. 3) Where extractive activities are permitted land reclaimation will be required. 4) Noise and dust, surface water pollution, and waste materials and spoils disposal must be controlled to minimize adverse impacts. 5. Development on Upland Areas a. Findings The upland areas of New Hanover County present both opportunities and limitations for urban development. A study by the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department reveals four major elements of the natural environment having an impact on the suitability of the land for development. These 'four elements are described as follows: 1) Flood hazard areas. Flood waters represent a hazard to life and property when development takes place in flood prone areas; in addition, flood plain development may actually increase the severity of flooding by acting as a partial dam and by de- creasing the absorptive capacity of the flood plain soils. 2) Oc'ean beach and frontal dune system. Because they are subjected to flooding by diurnal tides and storm surges, the ocean beaches present an extreme hazard to life and property. The frontal dune system lying immediately landward of the ocean beaches constitutes the barrier island's major defense against storms. The vegetation on the frontal dunes is essential for their continued existence. This vegetation can be easily destroyed by development, thereby reducing the island's defenses. 3) Water table conditions. High water table conditions increase development costs; if uncorrected may render yards and recreation areas unusable; and extensive artificial drainage to lower the water table may reduce recharge of aquifers and seriously affect the quality and salinity of estuarine waters. 4) Load supporting capability. The load supporting value of soils is an important variable in most types of development. Failure to insure that subsoil condi- tions afford a suitable load-bearing capacity for a particular building, highway, or other structure can have serious consequences--foundation collapse, dif- ferential settling, rapid deterioration of roads, and perhaps damage to adjacent properties during the construction process. In addition, man-made hazards have been identified as having limitations for development. Like some natural phenomena certain types of development, such as airports and tank farms, have characteristics which constitute a threat to life and property in the surrounding areas. Some of.the majo r hazard areas are: 1) The New Hanover County Airport 2) The bulk storage petroleum areas 3) The North Carolina State Port 4) The Sunny Point Ocean Terminal buffer zone area 5) The Love Grove industrial area. b. Policy Objectives Based on these findings the following objectives have been defined regarding development on the Wilmington-New Hano@er Planning Area's upland areas: 1) To minimize the impact of urban development on the Planning Area's natural and man-made environment. 2) To minimize the risk to life and property from natural and man-made hazards. c - Recommended Policies In order to achieve the objectives defined for development on the Planning Area's upland areas the following policies are recommended: 1) All.permanent development within the 100 year flood plain shall be carefully controlled, and no land uses except those unharmed by flooding or those inseparable from the flood plain will be permitted within the 50 year flood plain. 2) With the exception of those uses which must be located there, all permanent development in the dynamic ocean beach-frontal dune area shall be prohibited. Where development must take place in this area, sound engineering practices must be applied to minimize hazards from wind and water and to minimize construction damage to the frontal dune. 3) Intensive development on wet soils will be dis- couraged; where wet soils are difficult or impossible to drain, urban-type development will be prohibited. 4) Lowering the water table by artificial land drainage must not seriously affect the recharge of aquifers or the quality and salinity of the estuarine waters. 5) Detailed site analysis shall be required in areas where soils are suspected of having in- adequate load bearing values, and safeguards will be required where appropriate. 6) Man-made hazards shall be delineated and pre- cautions will be taken to insure that develop- ment within these zones is compatible with the associated dangers. C. LAND USE 1. Findings A survey and analysis of existing land use in the Wilmington-New Hano@er Planning Area has revealed several key issues which must be addressed in the development policies adopted by local government. These issues include the following: 1) The encroachment of incompatible land uses. The encroachment of incompatible uses into residential, commercial, and industrial areas tends to reduce property values, reduce main- tenance, and to eventually result in property decline. 2) Strip commercial development. Strip commercial development is evident in several areas. Such a development pattern is undesirable because it tends to encourage land speculation and inflated land values, resulting in a large amount of un- productive land; it depreciates the value of surrounding property for less intensive uses; and it tends to increase traffic volumes, often necessitating expensive street widenings. 3) Over-zoning. Over-zoning tends to encourage sprawling development patterns; it diminishes the potential that the most desirable commercial. and industrial sites will be developed; and it removes land from other productive uses. Over the next twenty-five years approximately 19,000 acres of land must be developed or redeveloped.to meet the growing populations needs for homes, industries, and shopping facilities. Without proper guidance this development will result in a continuation and worsening of the area's land use problems. Therefore, we need to guide future development in a manner which will promote efficient land use patterns; which will permit utilization of the area's prime sites for residential, commercial, and industrial uses; which will prevent the occurrance of incompatible land uses, and, which will protect established neighborhoods. 2. policy Objectives Based on these findings the following objectives have been defined concerning land use in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area: 1) To provide adequate industrial space to meet the needs of existing and new establishments without sacrificing environmental quality. 2) To provide adequate commercial space in appropriate locations to insure that commer- cial activities can be developed in a manner that will conveniently satisfy expanding consumer needs without detracting from existing or future residential areas. 3) To insure the constant availability of housing to all individuals and families which satisfies their tastes, is within their economic means, and is located in a quality living.environment. 3. Recommended Policies In order to achieve the defined objectives the following land use policies are recommended: 1) Industrial development shall be encouraged on sites which are environmentally suited and which have unique locational. advantages for industry. 2) Industrial development shall be located in such a manner as to minimize the threat of environmental pollution and excessive traffic congestion. To this end, over-concentration of industry in any area of the county will be avoided, and the development of industrial parks which decrease the cost of environmental protection facilities and which are more eff- icient land users will be encouraged. 3) Climatic factors will be considered in the location of industries having the potential for odors or hazardous emmissions. 4) The proper development of four major types of commercial areas will be encouraged: 6) neighborhood services areas b) community services areas c) regional service areas d) highway service areas 5) Unplanned commercial development along the Planning Area's streets and highways will be discouraged., 6) Any future commercial development which sub- stantially increases traffic volumes on resi- dential streets will be prohibifed. 7) "Spot" commercial development and the general encroachment of commercial uses into residential areas will be prohibited. 8) Recognizing that the existing housing stock is a major housing resource, sources of funds for housing rehabilitation will be identified and investigated and assistance will be provided to low and moderate income families in obtaining funds from appropriate sources. -24 - 9) The feasibility of developing and implementing a minimum housing code in areas not presently enforcing such a code will be studied. 10) A housing market analysis will be prepared and maintained to assist the real estate industry in meeting consumers' housing needs, both, numbers and types. 11) Residential areas shall be located in such a manner as to facilitate the delivery of required public services. D. TRANSPORTATION 1. Findings A cursory examination and analysis of the Planning Area's highway system indicates that, with the exception of U.S. 421, all of its major roads are carrying traffic volumes which are either at or near their design capacity. The area's thoroughfare plan indicates that major upgradings of the existing traffic network and the addition of new major facilities will be required within the next 20 years. The alternatives to vehicular transportation in the Planning Area are seriously limited. The Wilmington Transit Authority operates a bus system with limited routes and schedules and is currently experiencing heavy losses. There has been strong citizen opposition voiced toward some of the improvements and new facilities advocated by the Wilmington Area Thoroughfare Plan. This opposition centers On concern for damage to the Planning Area's natural and man-made resources and the damage to viable residential areas. 2. Policy Objectives Based on these findings the following objectives have been defined regarding transportation within the Planning Area: i5o I ) To develop and mal ntain an efficient system for movemcnt of people and goods within and thrOL18110LIt the area while minimizing the impact of transportation facilities on the living environment. 2) To provide sufficient transportation alterna- tives to meet people's transportation needs. 3. Recommended Policy In order to achieve these objectives the following.policies are recommended: 1) The development of coordinative plans for land, water, and,air transportation will be supported. 2) The maintenance and improvement of the county's secondary road system will be supported. 3) The development of an "Outer Loop" circumferential highway shall be supported while insuring that' its design and alignment will have a minimal negative impact on the county's living environment. 4) The integrity of all viable neighborhoods shall be considered in the thoroughfare planning and develop- ment process. 5) Public facilities such as schools and parks will be protected from traffic hazards. 6) Public access to public transportation on a county-- wide basis, particularly for travel between home and employment, shall be improved. 7) The development of safe and efficient bikeway facilities throughout the county shall be supported. E. RECREATION AND OPEN SPACE 1. Findings Wilmington and New Hanover County have recently completed a joint planning program for parks, recreation, and open space.* Major findings *Gardner Gidl ey and Associates, Parks and Recreation Master Plan, City of Wilmington and New Hanover County, North Carolina, March 15, 1976. .2-3r - of this program are as follows: 1) "There are no public swimming pools in the city or the county." 2) "Facilities are not 6quitably distributed, or, in some cases, adequate to meet current needs." 3) "Land currently used for recreation is inadequate in size, and, in some cases, poorly located." 4) "Little provision has been made for relatively simple outdoor recreation for which both national and local samplings indicate a strong preference specifically bicycling, swimming, picnicking, nature activities, and fishing." 5) "There is no public access to major natural areas such as the Cape Fear River, the sounds, and the ocean beaches." 6) "Indoor recreation facilities are inadequate." 7) "No major recreation activities are conducted outside the City of Wilmington, except for organized Little League programs and programs serving relatively small populations at Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach." 2. Policy Objectives Based on the study's findings two objectives have been defined for recreation and open space: 1) To provide full opportunity for all residents of the Planning Area to make constructive use of their leisure time. 2) To conserve appropriate lands in a natural state to provide for passive uses, visual relief, scenic value, and to protect natural productive processes. 3. Recommended Policies To achieve the defined objectives, the following policies are recommended: 1) Every feasible action will be taken to insure implementation of the Master Parks and Recreation Plan. 2) Support of state and federal agencies as well as private organizations will be sought to preserve 6;x- a natural area along the Northeast Cape Fear River for the purposes of passive outdoor recreation and wildlife management. 3) Efforts of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to secure a wildlife-and open space corridor along the Northeast Cape Fear River in conjunction with the Wilmington Harbor Project will be supported, recognizing that this area has important natural resource values as well as being a potentially value amenity to the Wilmington urbanizing area. 4) As development continues in the Planning Area adequate standards of open space for active and passive uses will be maintained. 5) When feasible the open space system recom- mended for the City of Wilmington will be expanded throughout the Planning Area in order to preserve natural and cultural resources, to provide passive recreational experiences, and to shape urban growth. F. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 1. Findings Through the Public Participation Program the citizens of New Hanover County, particularly in the morerural areas, have expressed concern over the loss of farms and woodlands to development. These areas are important to the tradition and current life-style of many residents. The county's growth has exerted considerable development pressure on farms and woodlands. Although the decline in agriculture in New Hanover County has been related to many trends such as labor costs and capital costs, taxes have also played a significant role. Present use valuations provide some needed relief; however, it appears that a significant number of farmers do not fully understand this provision. Urban sprawl also contributes to the loss of farms and woodlands. The movement of urban development., such as residential subdivisions, shopping facilities, and industrial activities, into prime agricultural and woodlands -2-5- t 4-nds 1 0 "I'tract more development resiilting in a significant loss of cu I I ura I lands 2. PoliSy_q@ @ective The following objective for the Planning Area's farms and woodlands has been defined: To encourage the main'tenance of agriculture and forestry as viablb industries and to capitalize on farms and woodlands as an integral part of the county's open space system. 3. Recommended Policies To achieve this objective the following policies are recommended: 1) The preservation of prime farm and woodlands for continued agricultural uses will be encouraged. 2) Land use controls which will facilitate the preservation of prime farm and woodlands will be developed. 3) Available fiscal techniques which will further the objective of preservation of farms and woodlands will be identified and publicized. G. HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES i. Findings The Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area's archeological and historic resources are among its most fragile assets. These resources are an essential part of the area's tradition, its heritage, and are an invaluable element of the quality of life afforded present residents. In addition, these resources have an economic potential through tourism which is, as yet, unrealized. Within the City of Wilmington two separate areas consisting of more than 200 block have been listed on the National Register of Historic Places and, -2-6- thereby, have been recognized as having historic and/or architectural significance. However, only 38 blocks have been afforded the special protection of "historic district zoning". Outside the city there are also a number of scattered individual buildings and sites which are recognized as having historical significance. All of the buildings are in private ownership and do not appear to be endangered. However, no protection from incompatible development has been provided to these sites. According to an Army Corps of Engineers inventory conducted in December of 1973 there are 16 known archeological sites within New Hanover County. The exact location of these sites are considered confidential and are not normally released by the State Division of Archives and History due to potential disturbance and destruction. However, only in major projects using federal or state funds would the Divisions of Archives'ahd History have an opportunity to review projects having a potential impact or arche-. ological sites. This lack of coordination could be problematic as it relates to local development activities and could result in the loss of archeological sites. 2. Policy Objective From@the findings the following objective concerning the Planning Area's historic and archeological sites has been defined: To preserve and enhance the economic and cultural value of the Planning Area's historic resources for present and future residents. 3. Recommended Policies To achieve the objective the following policies are recommended: 1) A comprehensive preservation program consisting of advisory and counseling services, financial incentives, and investment as well as existing legal tools will be developed to support the preservation objective. This program will be coordinated with and supportive of area-wide development plans. 2) Full develOPment of the tourism potential of thc area's historic resources will be en- coiirn&L!d. 3) Existing programs designed to promote rehabilitatiori and preservation of deteriorated neighborhoods and structures within the National Register Area will be reviewed and monitored. Additionally, these programs will be updated, adjusted, and coordinated as the need arises. 4) Better coordination between local government and the North Carolina Division of Archives and History will be sought in order to prevent the inadvertent loss of valuable archeological sites. 5) The interdependence of the residential and commercial components of the Historic Area will be recognized and the compatibility of residential and commercial land use shall be promoted. 6) The role of the historically significant Central Business District in the urban environment shall be assessed, and programs will be developed and/or supported which focus on the preservation and improvement of the Central Business District as a.viable downtown core. 2-9-- WILMINGTON-NEW [ANOVER OPREHENSIVE PLANNING PROGP41 GETBAL DEVELOM9 GUIDE MAY 21J 1976 GENE-RAL DEVELOPMENT GUIDE Using the "Recommended Policies for Growth and Development" as a basis, a General Development Guide has been prepared to set the parameters for the development of a more detailed land use plan in Phase II of.the planning process. The Development Guide is based on a land classification system which has been developed by the Coastal Resources Commission and is required for use in the coastal resources management program. The system's five categories--developed, transition, community, rural resource, and conservation--provide a basis for identifying, very generally, where, how much,-and what types of development will occur in the Planning Area. The following is a description of the intent and application of these land classes. a. Developed The Developed class identifies developed lands which are presently provided with essential public services. Consequently, it is dis- tinguished from areas where significant growth and/or new service re- quirements will occur. Continued development and redevelopment should be encouraged to provide for the orderly growth in the area. Developed lands are areas with a minimum gross population density of 2,000 people per square mile. At a minimum, these lands contain existing public services including water and sewer systems, educational systems, and road systems--all of which are able to support the present population and its accompanying land uses including commercial, indus- trial, and institutional. Within the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area, all "Developed" areas are located within the City of Wilmington where a full range of services are available. b. Transition The Transition class identifies lands where moderate to high density growth is to be encouraged and where any such growth that is permitted by local legislation will be provided with the necessary public services. The requirement for a commitment to provide services cannot be overstated. The area to be designated as Transition should be no greater than that required to accommodate the Planning Area-'s 10-year projected population growth at a minimum gross density of 2,000 people per square mile. It is estimated that 8.0 square miles of transitional land will be required to accommodate the Planning Area's 1975-1985 population growth.. In addition, the minimum services which will be required are the necessary water and sewer facilities, educational services, and roads. Consideration must be given to the cost of public services in the Transition area. Transition areas are located in a compact pattern around the City of Wilmington in accordance with the recommended policies for urban growth. This development pattern will permit optimum efficiency in land utilization and the delivery of public services such as sewage collection and treatment, water supply, police protection, and fire protection. c., Community The Community class identifies existing and new clusters of low density development not requiring major public services. The Community class includes existing clusters of one or more land uses such as a rural residential subdivision or a church, school, general store, industry, etc. This class will provide for all new rural growth when the lot size is ten acres or less. Such clusters of growth may occur in new areas, or within existing community lands. In every case, the lot size must be large enough to safely accommo- date on-site sewage disposal and where necessary water supply so that no public sewer services will be required now or in the future. As a guide for calculating the amount of land necessary to accommodate new rural community growth, a gross population density of 640 people per square mile or one person per acre should be used. Using this criterion, it is estimated at additional 5.0 square miles will be needed to accommo- date the 3,075*persons expected to settle in low density clusters over the next ten Years. Four "Rural Co=unities" have been designated on the Land Classifi- cation Map: Castle Payne, Ogulen, Flemington, and Sea Breeze. d. Conservation The Conservation class identifies land which should be maintained essentially in its natural state and where very limited or no public services are provided. Very low development densities should be en- couraged in Conservation areas. Lands to be placed in the Conservation class are the least desirable for development because: 1) They are too fragile to withstand development without losing their natural value; and/or 2) They have severe or hazardous limitations to development; and/or 3) Though they are not highly fragile or hazardous, the natural resources they represent are too valuable to endanger by develop- ment. All areas designated as Class III lands (not suited for develop- ment) in the Environmental Analysis (Technical Report #3) have been classified as Conservation. d. Rural The Rural class identifies lands for long-term management for productive resource utilization, and where limited public services will. be provided. Development in such areas should be compatible with resource production; however, these lands constitute a future reserve for Transition land. The Rural class includes all lands not in the Developed, Tran- sition, Community and Conservation classes. 9Z6T Al NONOO IVIBNOWAN3 I SRV IVI-WHOd M9Wd 9NINWid 3AMISH38M EAOM 10-NO19NI'01M AREAS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN New Hanover County's beaches, its marshes, and its rivers, creeks and sounds, as well as the rich cultural heritage preserved in its many historic sites and old homes are all valued by the county's residents as an essential part of their lifestyle. These resources have also been given special state- wide significance by the Coastal Area Management Act of 1974. The Act instructs the Coastal Resources Commission to identify critical areas which need to be considered for protection and possible preservation in each county; and to formally designate them as "Areas of Environmental Concern." Within these "AEC's", development must be reviewed for compliance with state guide- lines and local plans before it may proceed. The basic goal of this permit system is to maintain or preserve the natural functions of thege areas as the land is committed to more intensive uses. Although the Coastal Resources Commission has not completed the process of delineating AEC's, the Commission's local planning guidelines require that potential AEC's be identified and considered in the development of land use recommendations. A list has been developed to illustrate the possible occurence of Environmental Concern.in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. AEC Category Appropriate Land Uses 1. Low Tidal Marshes Fishing piers, docks, or other uses which do not impair the natural functions of the marsh. 2. Other Coastal Marshland Uses which by their nature require water access such as ports, docks, and marinas. 3. Estuarine Waters Navigational channels, bulkheads to prevent erosion, piers, and wharfs. 4. Special Aquifer Areas Development which do not employ Barrier Islands septic tank disposal systems, do not present a risk of accidental dishcarge or soluble contaminants, and do not increase the withdrawal of water to a rate that may cause salt water intrusion. AEC Category Appropriate Land Uses 5. Existing State Parks Uses'associated withe recreational- cultural-educational character of the area. 6. Complex Natural Areas Uses which do not disturb the natural conditions of these scientifically or educationally valuable areas. 7. Historic Places Uses which will not result in substantial irreversible damage to the historic value of the area. 8. Public Trust Areas Navigational channels, drainage ditches, bulkheads, piers, and wharfs provided they do not violate the public trust rights. 9. Sand Dunes Along The Uses which can be safely under- Barrier Islands taken to minimize damage from wind and water. 10. Ocean Beaches and Shorelines Uses which do not interfere with the rightful use of the beach area or contribute to its envirOn- mental degradation. 11. Coastal Floodplains Recreation development or other development provided it conforms with the standards of the Federal Insurance Administration. 12. Excessive Erosion Areas Uses associated with recreational or conservational activities pro- vided only moveable temporary structures are placed in these areas. These AECs are illustrated in "Technical Report #3, Environmental Analysis". V41MIngton Aw new hanover COM rehensive plannlng7 program fechtkIC81 report part x: huma resoumes pairt u: ecoinotuiP resources M ANALYSE OF H UM4N AND ECIOT@qom@c RE URCES Appli, 1070 0 0 PART 1. HUMAN RESOURCES TABLE OF CONTENTS Part Human Resources Page Introduction 4 I. Growth Trend Analysis 5 A. County Growth Trends 5 B. State and Regional Comparisons 8 C. Subarea Growth Trends 10 II. Population Dynamics 12 A. Factors Affecting New Hanover County's Population Growth 12 1) Natural Increase 12 2) Birth Rates 13 3) Death Rates 13 4) Migration 17 III. Estimates of Current Population 20 IV. Population Composition 21 A. Age and Sex.Composition 21 B. Income'Characteristics 28 C. Household Characteristics 33 V. Population Projections 38 A. Age-Specific Projections 41 B. Township Projections 41 SUMMARV OF TRENDS ANO POPULATION FORECASTS Poputation G&owth Ttends 1. Since 1950 New Hanova County has been gtowing 6a,6teA than the state; but mote impoxtantty, the county's zhate o4 the totat state poputation has been incteazing. Fo& the 1950-1960 decade, the gtowth Jot the state =z app&oximatety 12 peAcent, white the county expetienced an inctease o6 neakty 13.5 peAcent. DuAing the 1960-1970 decade, white the state's peAcentage incteaze Jett to app&oximatety 11.5 peAcent, the county had an incAease oJ 15.5 peAcent. Atso, got the 1950-1970 pe&iod, the county's shaAe o4 totat state poputation incteased by app,toximatety 5 peAcent. 2. Ovet the past two decades conzideted in this anatyziz, New Hanovet County has been a gtowth centeA jot SoutheazteAn Notth CaAotina. Duting that pexiod Region 1101.611poputation incteased by apptoximatety 14 peAcent, due stAictty to natwLat incteaze. At the same time, the county's poputation g&ew at mote than twice that Aate--31 petcent jot the twenty yeat petiod. 3. Atthough New HanoveA County is expetiencing tapid gtowth,, theAe ate signi@icant di64eAentiatz in the gtowth o6 zubateas oJ the county. (A) Duxiykq the Zut twenty yeats, the ,&uAat,,a ateas o6 the county have g&own at a much 4aste& &ate than the city. Between 1950 and 1970 the city gtew by 2.5 peAcent finctuding a majo& annexation), white the poputation o4 "tutat" New Hanovet Count,q incAeazed by mote than 100 peAcent. (B) The "&u&aV poputp-tion is concenttated in Hatnett Townshi which contained 21 petcent oA the totaZ county poputation in 1PO., (C) Atthough they ate 4etativety zmatt in poputation, Cape Feat and FedeAat Poin@ townships' shate o6 totat poputxttion incAea6ed tapidty oveA the p"t ten yewus. The two townships' shaAe o6 county poputation inc&e"ed by 37 and 38 peAcent,&apectivety. 4. Migtation is the majoA 6actot ptoducing the county'.6 tecent gtowth. Between 1950 and 1960, the county expetienced an out-mig&ation o6 4.1 peAcent. Between 1960 and 1970, howevet, this tAend tevetsed, and the county expetienced a net in-migtation oA 5.4 peAcent. a 'RuAat as used heAe &e6etz to those atea-6 outside Witmington',s co&- potate timits, inctuding smatt incotpotated ateaz. 7 7 5. B"ed on avaitabte data on bitths and death,6 and on migution katm deAived 6,tom .6choot enAottment in6otmation, the countylz 1975 poputa- tion i,6 atimated to be apptoximatety 92,000. TW )Lep)Lesent-6 an incAea6e o6 oveA 8 peAcent zince 1970 and a 1970-1980 decenniat gtowth Aate o6 21 peAcent. Poputation Compo4ition 1. New Hanove,% County ha,6 an unu,6uaUy taAge 6emate poputation and, a-6 a g,toup, the-6ounty's 6emate.6 a&e economicatty woue-o@6 than the %est o6 the poputation. Fot exdmpte, atmozt 14 peAcent o6 the county.6 6amitie,6 have 6emate headt, and white the mean income 6o& att county @ amitim is $9,368, the mean income 6ot 6amitie,6 with 6emate head6 i4 4489, wt tezz than hat@ that amount. The concentAation o4 6emateA i,6 6ound pkimatity within the nonwhite poputation usiding within the city. 2. The median age 6o& New HanoveA County d&opped 6,%om 28.6 in 1960 to 27.8 in 1970. TheAe weAe at,6o compaubte decteases in the median ag" 6o)t each kace and sex catego&y. Thiz toweAing o6 the poputation's median age is a &eveuat o6 the out-mig&ation tAend,6 expeAienced duAing the 1950's and eaAty 1960'.6. 3. The bitth &ate 6ot the pa,5t ten yeau has been cycticat with atoW in 1966 and a peak in 1970. TheAe iz a downuxftd tAend in biAth tate at p&e,6ent, and thiz downwatd tLend i.6 te6tected in a decAea6ing peAcen- tage o4 peAzonz in the 0-4 age gAoup. It appewLs that in-migAati6n a accounting 4o& the absotute incAeases in thi6 g&oup. 4. Discounting the e66ects o6 in6tation, totat ptanning GAea income,6 showed .6igni6icant incuazez between 1960 and 1970. Between 1960 and 1970, the totat county median 6amity income incteazed 64om $4,887 to $7P114 in the conztant 1967 dottau . Thi6 inc4ea6e can be att4ibuted to changu in the aAea',s emptoyment chaAactmizticz. 5. Accokding to income .6tati.6tic.6, "&uAat" jamitie.6 a4e economicatty betteA o46 than city 6amitie.6 in New HanoveA County. In 1970 the income o6 a typicat city 6amity am $6,986, white that o6 a Autat 6amity uxu $8,547. 6. In both 1960 and 1970,, the city contained a high concentAation o6 jamitia in the tow income tange. 7. Among the majo& poputation g&oup.6 in the ptanning aAea, the uAban non- white poputation " in the wout economic po.6ition, with an extAemety taAge concentAation oj jamitie4 in the tow-income %ange. 8. Hou,6ehotd 6i;e has been decAea6ing, and is expected to continue to dectease in the nea& 6utuAe. The aveAage ho"ehotd .6ize-in 1970 ttku 3.08, and an aveAage hou.6ehotd 6ize og 2.9 peuon.6 iz pkojected 6o,% 1980. 9. The numbeA and xetative peAcentage o6 otdeA peuons in the county ha-6 been ineAea.6ing and thi.6 tAend i,6 expected to continue in the neoA 6utuAe. 2 Poputation Atojections 1. P)Lojections have been ptepaAed 6o)L the pexiod 1980 to 2000. Att oj the ptojection.6 emptoy auumptions conceAning the component-6 o6 poputation change, that is; biltth, death,6, and net migution. 2. The tow and middte ptojectionz o6 the kange aAe based on hi6toticat t4end,s in the va&iabta. The highut ptojection o6 the kange i6 bazed on the cuhhent bixth Aate and a 6okecazted migAntion devetoped 6,kom 1970-1974 zchoot en/totZnent data. 3. PAojections Yea& Low Middte High 1980 94038 97546 101317 1990 107613 116740 124608 2000 122829 140283 151147 3 7k INTRODUCTION' OBJECTIVES AND ORGANIZATION Considerations of the size, characteristics, and distribution of New Hanover County's population are at the base of most decisions affecting future development. Therefore, the description and analysis of the county's population is a fundamental element in the Comprehensive Planning Program. Population projections assist in estimating future levels of demand for land for various uses and for community services and facilities. Studies of population composition -- factors such as income, age, and race -- pro- vide information of a more qualitative nature which is useful in the description of important social and economic trends; in the definition of problems to be,addressed by the planning program; and, in identifying human resources which can be utilized in solving these problems. A concentrated effort has been made to define the population informa- tion needs of the Comprehensive Planning Program and to develop statistics and meaningful analyses to meet these,needs. As a result, four primary objectives have been identified for this study: 1. Definition and interpretation of the recent population growth trends of the planning area, giving particular attention to the factors producing these trends and to their implications'fdr future population levels; 2. Identification of indicators of the planning area's social 'needs as they relate to the Comprehensive Planning Program; 3. Identification of major socio-economic differences between residents of various communities within the planning area; and 4. Preparation of reliable projections of the size and characteris- tics of the planning area's future population. Within the context of these objectives, this report has been divided into three parts. The first part deals with the planning area's population growth -- current size, growth trends, growth components, and comparisons with other jurisdictions. The second part of the report consists of an analysis of the county's population composition and its implications for the Comprehensive Planning Program. The final part provides projections of the planning area's future population. The most widely used source of statistics for population analysis is the U.S. Census Bureau, and the present study relies heavily on this data source. However, utilizing census data does present problems. The 1970 census is now almost five years old, and the data collected at that time do not adequately describe some of the more recent trends associated with the planning area's rapid growth. To minimize this shortcoming, secondary data sources have been used where appropriate to "up-date" the census data. I. GROWTH TREND ANALYSIS Analysis of growth trends is one of the most basic elements in the comprehensive evaluation of the planning area's population. Growth trend information serves four important functions in the planning process: 1. Growth trends are an indicator of the pressure on the planning area's land resources and its community services and facilities. 2. County growth trends can pinpoint significant changes in the structure of the area's economy. 3. Analysis and comparison of the growth trends of various areas of the county permits identification of growth differentials. All areas of a county seldom experience uniform growth rates, presenting different problems of growth management. 4. Analysis of historic growth trends provides a basis for making forecasts of the planning area's future population levels. While the county boundaries do not conform precisely to the department's formal area of planning responsibility, New Hanover County has been used as the basic unit of analysis in evaluating growth trends; however, further comparisons are made with the growth of other jurisdictions (the state and the region) and with subdivisions of the county (townships, urban and rural areas). A. COUNTY GROWTH TRENDS In describing and analyzing the population growth history of New Hanover County, it is first important to understand that populations grow in much the same way that money grows when interest is compounded. Just as the interest dollars themselves earn interest, so people added to the county's population produce more people. In this sense, county growth trends are geometric rather than arithmetic, and although the determination of average annual geometric growth rates requires more extensive calculations, they more closely approximate the actual growth trend of the population.a Therefore, geometric growth rates have been used to analyze the county's population increases. New Hanover County's recent growth history, both in terms of absolute increases and annual growth rates, is summarized in Table 1. Between the 1.930 and the 1970 censuses, the county's population increased by nearly 100 percent, from approximately 43,000 to 83,000. During this period, aAverage annual geometric growth rates are derived using the compound interest formula: P = Po (1 + r)n, Where P0 is the initial popuYation, Pn is the population at the end of the time period, n is the time period, and r is the average annual rate of change. 5 7 however, the population increase has not been consistent. In the 1930's the county experienced an average annual growth of 1.1 percent, but as a result of the county's rapid industrial expansion during the war years, the growth rate surged to 2.8 percent during the 1940-50 period. The censuses of 1960 and 1970 have shown that, although the county's rate of growth is much slower, its population is increasing and that it is growing at an increasing rate -- 1.3 and 1.5 percent per year respectively during the 1950's and the 1960's. This forty year growth trend is illustrated in Figure 1. One of the best ways to assess the significance of the county's popula- tion growth rates is to relate them to the number of years required for the population to double at a given growth rate. With an annual growth of 1.1 percent which the county experienced during the 1930's, it would require approximately sixty-three years for the population to double; however, at the 1960's growth rate of 1.5 percent, it would require only forty-six years for the county's population to double. TABLE 1 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS FOR SELECTED YEARS BETWEEN 1930 AND 1970a County Popu at on b 1930 . . . . 43,010 1940 . . . . 47,935 1950 . . . . 63,272 1960 . . . . 71,742 1970 . . . . 82,996 Absolute Increase 1930-40 . . . . 4,925 1940-50 . . . . 15,337 1950-60 . . . . 8,470 1960-70 . . . . 11,254 Average Annual Growth Rate 1930-40 . . . . 1.1 percent 1940-50 . . . . 2.8 percent 1950-60 . . . . 1.3 percent 1960-70 . . . . 1.5 percent a U.S. Census of Population; Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. b Estimates of current population are found in a separate section of this report. 6 FIGURE I POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND CITY OF WILMINGTON 90- 1930-1970 90 so- -80 p 0 NEW HANOVER COUNTY p u CITY OF WILMINGTON L A TO- -70 T 0 N 1 60- -60 N T H' 0 u 50- -50 s oo@ A D s 40- -40 301 1 1-30 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 I I t t t I I i I I I YEAR B. STATE AND REGIONAL COMPARISONS As shown in Table 2, New Hanover County's average annual growth rate over the past two census periods has been slightly higher than that of the state as a whole. From 1950 to 1960, the county grew at an annual rate of 1.30 percent while the state's population increased by 1.15 percent each year. During the 1960's the difference between the two rates of growth was much greater; the state's annual growth rate declined slightly to 1.1 percent while that of the county increased to approximately 1.5 percent. The relationship between the population increase of the county and Region ,O,,a is similar. During both census periods, the growth rate of the county was much higher than that of the region. At the same time, however, the gap between the growth rates closed sharply from 1950 to 1970. During the 1950's, the county's annual growth was more than 2.5 times greater than that of the region. Between 1960 and 1970, however, the county's growth rate was slightly less than two times the region's rate of growth. In conjunction with the higher growth rates, the county's share of regional and state population is also increasing. For example, between 1950 and 1970, New Hanover County's share of total state population in- creased from 1.56 percent to 1.63 percent. Similarly, the county's share of Region "0" population increased from 41.7 percent in 1950 to 48.2 percent in 1970. New Hanover Countyls recent growth in population has been dramatic: its annual growth rate is increasing; it is growing faster than Region "0" or the state; and its share of regional and state population is increasing. if these trends mirror the county's future growth, then there are obvious implications for the Comprehensive Planning Program: 1. A rapidly expanding population will bring increasing pressure on county's land resources, emphasizing the.need for new and improved land management programs; 2. The customary response time for bringing public services and facilities "on-line" must be greatly reduced, requiring expanding planning programs throughout the various agencies and departments of city and county governments; and 3. If the patterns of other urban areas are maintained, the expanding population will bring a demand for qualitative as well as quantita- tive increases in the level of public services. a Region "0" includes New Hanover, Pender, Brunswick, and Columbus Counties. 8 TABLE 2 Comparison of Population Growth Rates New Hanover County, Region "0", and North Carolina Population Absolute Growth Area Increase Rate 1950 1960 1970 50-60 60-70 50-60 60-70 New Hanover County 63,272 71,742 82,996 8,470 11,254 1.30% 1.50% Region "0" 151,554 159,501 172,305 7,947 12,804 0.51% 0.78% North Carolina 4,061,929 4,556,155 5,082,059 494,226 525,904 1.15% 1.10% Source: U. S. Census of Population; Wilmington New Hanover Planning Department TABLE 3 New Hanover County Share of Total Population 1950 1970 New Hanover County@Share of Total Population Area 1950 1960 1970 North Carolina 1*56% 1,57% 1.63% Region "0" 41.10% 45.00%. 48.20% Source; U. S. Census of Population C. SUBAREA GROWTH TRENDS While New Hanover County has experienced a rapid growth in population during recent years, a closer examination of subareas of the county indicates that this growth has not been uniform. As shown in Table 4, census tabula- tions permit analysis of subarea growth trends at two levels. First is a comparison of Wilmington and the remaining portions of the county. This may be characterized as an urban-rural comparison because, according to Census Bureau, the towns of Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, and Kure Beach have populations less than 2,500 and are classified as rural. The second compari- son is based on the growth differentials of the county's township subdivisions. This system of subareas is illustrated in Figure 2. Comparison of urban and rural growth characteristics found in Table 4 reveals a rapid suburbanization process occurring in New Hanover County. In 1950, almost three-fourths of the county's population resided within the City of Wilmington. Over the past twenty years development patterns have changed to the extent that in 1970 the county's population was almost equally divided between the city and the rural areas of the county. This process. of suburbanization is the product of many factors -- city- county tax differentials, transportation patterns, land availability, and residential amenities, to mention a few. The process is usually associated with patterns of urban sprawl which has important implications for the' Comprehensive Planning Program. There must be close cooperation and coordi- nation between the various agencies and departments of city and county government having responsibility for developing comprehensive plans. Without this cooperation and coordination, the development of public facilities may, through their tendency to attract residential growth, further contribute to the development of sprawl patterns resulting in the inefficient use of land resources and the inefficient expenditure of tax resources. Within the rural areas of the county, the growth trends have been uneven also. In 1970, Harnett Township in the northeast and Masonboro Township in the central portion of the county had the largest populations. Because of their locational characteristics -- close proximity to the City of Wilmington and:the recreational resources of the county's beach areas -- these townships will remain growth areas of the county. At the same time, however, it is important to note that, during the 1960's, the annual growth rates of Federal Point and Cape Fear Townships -- both approximately 4.5 percent -- were the highest of any area in the county. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that these areas will receive an increasingly larger share of the county's population growth. TABLE 4 COMPARISON OF SUBAREA GROWTH TRENDS 1950, 1960 AND 1970 Average Annual Share of Total Area Population Growth Rate County Population 1950 1960 1970 50-60 60-70 1950 1960 1970 New Hanover County 63,272 71,742 82,996 1.3% 1.50% N.A. N.A. N.A. urban areab 45,043 44,013 46,169c -0.23% 0.48% 71.2%- 61.3% 55.6% Rural area 18,229 27,729 36,827 4.13% 2.82% 28.8% 38.6% 44.4% Cape Fear Twp. 3,844 4,238 6,734 1.00% 4.55% 6.1% 5.9% 8.1% Federal Point Twp. 2,473 3,234 5,113 2.67% 4.50% 3.9% 4.5% 6.2% Harnett TFp- 8,421 14,427 17,427 5.26% 1.88% 13.3% 20.1% 21.0% Masonboro Twp. 3,491 5,830 7,553 5.02% 2.57% 5.5% 8.1% 9.1% a Calculated from U.S. Census data. b For this analysis, urban area considered to be Wilmington Township. c Wilmington Township 1960-70 population increase includes additions from annexation in 1964. CAPE FEAR 421 117 t 132 133 17 HARNETT . ...... .. .... 74 76 132 MASON 10110 421 Ole -9- 4(DE AL PO 0 tp 421 jo FIGURE 2 New Hanover CountY Townships Urban Area "Rural" Area Ii. POPULATION DYNAMICS A. FACTORS AFFECTION NEW HANOVER COUNTY"S POPULATION GROWTH New Hanover County's recent population growth is the result of two basic processes -- natural increase and net migration. Natural increase is, an internal growth factor which consists of the excess number of births over deaths. Migration, on the other hand, is an external factor which is determined by the net effect of in-migration and out-migration, and which may add to or offset the effects of natural increase. The main purpose of this section is to analyze these processes and thereby 6btain a better understanding of the planning area's future growth environment. 1) Natural Increase Natural increase is normally expressed as a ratea which relates excess births over deaths to total population. Implicit in the natural increase rates are the jurisdiction's birth rates (fertility rate) and death rates (mortality rate). While natural increase is adequate for explaining population growth in quantitative terms, it tends to obscure changes in birth and death rates which may point to more fundamental changes in the bocial and economic composition of the population. Therefore, in addition to analyzing trends in natural increase, it is also useful to examine trends in the county's birth and death rates. Over the past twenty-four years, the importance of natural increase as a component of New Hanover County's total population growth has decreased dramatically. During the 1950's, the average annual rate, of natural increase was relatively high -- 16*4 percent -- and was the only source of growth since the county experienced a net out-migration for the ten year period. However, between 1960 and 1970, the natural increase rate dropped to 9.5 percent, and in the past four years (1970-1973) dropped further to 8.7 percent. Trends in Wilmington's rate of natural increase provide a sharp contrast to the county as a whole. While the county's natural increase has been de- clining from a relativeTy high level during the 1950's, the city's rate of natural increase has remained low and stable. During the 1960's, the city's rate was approximately 3.2 percent, and between 1970 and 1974 it averaged 3.1 percent per year. These apparent inconsistencies between the natural increase rates of city residents and the county as a whole are the result of changes in the socio-economic characteristics of Wilmington residents produced by long-term out-migration from the city. These trends will be discussed in more detail in later sections. aNatural increase = total births - total deaths. Average annual rate of natural increase = (number births-deaths) x 1000 10 1960 population & 1970 population 2 12 2) Birth Rates New Hanover County births are the most complex of the county's growth variables. They reflect such diverse factors as the level of economic activity in the area, the level of education of county residents, the degree of industrialization, the residents' attitudes toward ideal family size, and the ethno-economic characteristics of the population. It is stressed, therefore, that these variables acting in concert often make it difficult to fully explain changes in birth rates. New Hanover County's birth ratea trends for the past ten year period, which are plotted in Figure 3, exhibit three fairly distinct phases. In the first phase, extending from 1963 to 1966, the total birth rate declined from a high of approximately 21.0 percent to a low of 17.0 percent. Between 1966 and 1970, the county's birth rate accelerated, reaching almost 21.0 percent in 1970. Since 1970, the birth rate has again entered a declining phase, falling to 17.2 percent in 1973. The county's total birth rate trends have been further analyzed using the "least squares" method -- a technique which averages, or "smooths out", the annual variations to show the general trend. The "least squares" trend line plotted in Figure 3 reveals a slight overall downward trend in the county's birth rate. The "least squares" value for the birth rate in 1963 is 19.7 percent, and in 1973 it is 18.3 pe.rcent. Wilmington's birth rate trends are plotted in Figure 4. While showing somewhat more erratic annual fluctuations, the city's trend line follows the three cycles which have been described for the county. Similarly, a "least squares" analysis of the city's birth rate trend reveals a slight overall decline for the 1963-73 period. 3) Death Rates Deaths have traditionally been the most stable of the three variables which produce population change. There is'a close relationship between age and the risk of death, and age may be considered the most important variable determining a population's death rate. It is emphasized, however, that other contributing factors, such as race, level of health care, occupation, and place of residence, also have a bearing on the death rate. aBirth rates are computed for the total population and race-specific components of the population according to the following formula: Crude birth rate = number of live births Ic 1000 population Using this formula, then, the "race-specific" birth rates presented in this report should be viewed as'indicators of social characteristics rather than from the standpoint of race-specific contributions to natural increase. In other words, even though the nonwhite birth rate is higher than the white birth rate, there are more white live births in absolute numbers than non- white births. 's FIGURE 3 30- 1 1 1 1 30 - NEW HANOVER COUNTY BIRTH RATES, 1963-1973 B 25 -25 1 %.% R T H s ------- - p E R 1 20- -2-0 0 0 0 p U L A 15- T -15 1 - - 0 TOTAL POPULATION N NON WHITE POPULATION WHITE POPULATION LEAST SQUARES TREND LI NE 10 1 - - I I L-10 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 YEAR SOURCE: N.C. STATE BOARD OF HEALTH, VITAL STATISTICS FIGURE 4 30 1 1 30 WILMINGTON BIRTH RATES, 1963 -1973 B 1 -25 R T H s p E R 0 20- -20 0 0 p 0 p U L A T 1 15- 0 15 N TOTAL POPULATION NON WHITE POPULATION WHITE POPULATION LEAST SQUARES TREND 10 LINE -- L-10 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 YEAR SOURCE: N. C. STATE BOARD OF HEALTH, VITAL STATISTICS FIGURE 5 20- 20 NEW HANOVER COUNTY DEATH RATES, 1963-1973 D E 15- -15 A T H s #,dole p E R 1 10- 10 0 SIM 0 0 p 0 p U L A T 5- -5 N TOTAL POPULATION NON WHITE POPULATION WHITE POPULATION 01 1 - I L-o 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 YEAR SOURCE: N.C. STATE BOARD OF HEALTH, VITAL STATISTICS I The county's total death rates and its race-specific components for tile 1963-1973 period are plotted in Figure 5. As expected, the total county rate has remained relatively stable for the eleven year period, and the rate for the white population has followed this trend closely. The death rate for the county's nonwhite residents, on the other hand, has shown signifi- cant annual fluctuations and has been consistently higher than the rate of the white population. By making the somewhat tenuous assumption that factors such as access to health care is uniform for both groups, then it appears that the higher death rate of the nonwhite population is primarily the result of an aging population produced,by long-term out-migration of nonwhites in the younger age groups. 4) Migration a) COUNTY During recent years, migration rather than natural increase has been the most important variable in the county's overall population growth and in the development of growth differentials within the county. People mi- grate for many reasons, but primary among these are better economic opportunitie.s, better and more abundant housing, and better recreational opportunities and social benefits. All of these factors are evident in New Hanover County's migration trends. Table 5 shows the county's migration rates for the 1950's and 1960's and provides a comparison of the recent migration trends of the urban and rural portions of the county. During the twenty year period between 1950 and 1970, the county's migration showed a reversal from a net out-migration during the 1950's to a relatively significant in-migration of 5.4 percent during the 1960's. This reversal is the result of a significant expansion of county employment opportunities, beginning in the early 1960's. This aspect of the county's growth will be discussed in more detail in a subse'- quent section analyzing the county's economy. TABLE 5 NEW HANOVER COUNTY MIGRATION RATES 195040 1960 70 Area Number Rate Number Rate New Hanover County -2,599 -4.1 3,868 + 5.4 White ------ ---- 6,747 +13.0 Nonwhite ------ ---- (-2,879) (-14.4) Wilmington ------ ---- (-1,03) (- 4.4) White ------ ---- 250 + 0.9 Nonwhite ------ ---- (-2,173) (-13.1) Rural New Hanover ------ ---- 5,791 +20.9 White ------ ---- 6,497 +26.7 Nonwhite ------ ---- 1 706) (-20.9) Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. 1@6 b) URBAN-RURAL Within the county there are sharp contrasts between the migration rates of Wilmington and the rural areas of the county and between the white and nonwhite population. Between 1960 and 1970, the city experienced a net out-migration of 4.4 percent while the rural or suburban areas of the county showed a net in-migration of more than 20 percent. There is good evidence that a significant portion of residents leaving the city are locating in the suburban areas of the county. For example between 1960 and 1970, the comty as a whole experienced a net in-migration of 3,858 persons, while the rural portion of the county gained 5,791 residents and the city lost 1,923 resi- dents through migration. This is equivalent to suburban New Hanover County receiving all 3,858 in-migrants to the county, plus 1,923 residents from the city. The principal causes of migration discussed above are evident in this movement of population toward the suburban areas of the county. Subdivision activity is much higher in the county than in the city, and the result has been greater availability of housing in the suburban areas. Taxes are also a significant factor. The 1974 ad valorem tax rate for the unincorporated areas of New Hanover County is $0.79 per $100 valuation, while that for city residents is $2.04 per $100 valuation. Although more urban services are available to city residents, economics appear to be an im ortant factor in the decision of many families to reside outside the city." p c) WHITE-NONWHITE In recent years, New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington have experienced heavy out-migration within the nonwhite population. Between 1960 and 1970, the county as a whole experienced a net out-migration of 2,647 nonwhite residents -- a rate of -14.4 percent for the decade. Since most of the county's nonwhite population resides within the city, the bulk of this out-migration occurred among city residents. The city's out- migration rate for nonwhites during this period was -13.1 percent. It is reasonable to assume that this heavy out-migration among non- white residents has been a response to the combined effects of limited employment opportunities within the New Hanover County economy and the prospect for jobs in other areas. As the county's economy continues to expand, the access of nonwhites to employment should improve, having the effect of lowering out-migration. New Hanover County's migration trends will have a significant impact on the structure of the county's population. A nationwide study by the Bureau of the Census during the@1950's and 1960's revealed that the migrat- ing population had a median age approximately ten years younger than the non-migrating population. The modal age category, or the age group appear- ing most frequently, of the migrating population was 20 - 24 years. The migrating population also abounded with pre-school children. Men and women between the ages of 20 and 44 -- the child bearing years -- constituted 48 percent of the migrating population and only 31 percent of the non-migrants. 18- Thus, the county's strong in-migration trends will have the overall effect of lowering the population's median age and increasing the fecunditya rate. Whether the increased fecundity rate will be translated into an in- creased birth rate is dependent upon diverse social and economic variables. Within the City of Wilmington, the situation is different. If the heavy out-migration trends continue, the cityts population will experience an increasing median age and a further lowering of the birth rate. aFecundity is defined as the physiological capacity to reproduce. ;57 III. ESTIMATES OF CURRENT POPULATION Due to the significant changes in New Hanover County's population since the 1970 census, it is necessary to derive an estimate of the county's current population. A Census Bureau technique which is based on vital statistics and school enrollment data has been utilized to prepare current estimates. Essentially, the technique uses births and deaths reported by the N. C. State Board of Health and migration rates calculated from school enrollment data to derive an estimate. A current population estimate and its births, deaths, and migration components are found in Table 6. The significant reversal of nonwhite out- migration should be noted. During the 1960's, the county's nonwhite population experienced a net out-migration of 14.4 percent; however, based on school enrollment data for the 1970-74 period, a 1970-80 net in-migration of 5.8 percent is projected for the nonwhite population. At the same time, the county's white migration rate is projected to rise to 16 percent. It is reasonable to assume that the 1970-74 trend on which these estimates are based is an indication of,expanding employment opportunities within the county. TABLE 6 a NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATE DECEMBER, 1974 Growth Component April 1970-Dec. 1974 Population 1970-74 Population Net Migration Dec. 1974 Growth Group Births Deaths Number 1970-80 Rate 1970 Estimate Rate Total 7,509 4,008 5,424 13.5% 82,996 91,921 10.7% White 5,570 2,789 4,889 16.0% 63,951 71,621 12.0% Nonwhite 1,939 1,219 535 5.8% 19,045 20,300 6.6% aComputed from U.S. Bureau of Census, N.C. State Board of Health, and New Hanover County Board of Education data. A detailed description of this method can be found in The Methods and Materials of Demography, Vol. 2, P. 751, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, May 1973. 20 IV. POPULATION COMPOSITION The second major element of this study deals with the county's population composition and its implications for the Comprehensive Planning Program. Although, in strict demographic terms, "composition" refers to all of the characteristics of the people who comprise the county's popula- tion, the information and analysis in this section have been limited to those factors which are most relevant to the county's planning program and which will best explain the growth processes outlined in the first section of this report. Within the context of the comprehensive planning process, the study of population composition is intended to serve three main purposes: 1. To provide a basis for estimating demand for public and private services and facilities; 2. To provide an information base for designing resource development programs by documenting the planning area's socio-economic problems and prospects; 3. To identify the social factors r'elated to the growth processes outlined in the first part of the study. These objectives suggest that four basic characteristics are essential in the analysis of the planning area's population composition: sex, R&e, race, and income. These characteristics, then, are the major focus of this section of the report. A. AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION Age and sex are the most basic of the population characteristics, be- cause age and sex groupings are traditionally viewed as the "building blocks" of the population. As such, they are important considerations in the comprehensive planning process. Age structure is an important variable in estimating requirements for facilities and services, schools, health care, housing, and recreation; sex and age characteristics are important elements in natality,mortality, and migration trends. In addition, the balance of the sexes, or distribution between male and females, affects social roles and employment patterns in the community. 1) Sex Composition The population sex ratio is a principal measure of sex composition used in technical studies. This measure is defined as the number of males per 100 females, or mathematically: Sex ratio = Total males X 100 a Total females all.S. Bureau of the Census, The Methods and Materials of Demography, by Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, et al (Government Printing Office: Washington, D. C., 1971) p. 191. c The basic assumption inherent in this method of evaluating sex composition is that the expected distribution of population between males and females is exactly even, resulting in a ratio of 100.0, and that major deviations from this standard reveal an excess of males or females in a population. A second measure of sex composition is the excess (or deficit) of males as a percent of the total population which is stated mathematically as: Total males - Total females X 100 Total population In this method the balance point between the sexes is zero; therefore, a positive value denotes a relative excess of males and a negative value denotes an excess of females.a While conveying essentially the same information, the sex ratio method relates the two population groups to each other whereas the measure of male excess (or deficit) relates the distribution of population between sexes to the total population. Both these measures for Wilmington and New Hanover County are shown in Table 7. TABLE 7 MEASURES OF SEX COMPOSITION -- 1950, 1960, and 1970 Sex Percent Male Year Male Female Total Ratio Excess or Deficit New Hanover 1950 30,038 33,234 63,272 90.38 (-5.05) County 1960 34,223 37,519 71,742 91.22 (-4.59) 1970 39,667 43,329 82,996 91.55 (-4.41) City of 1950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Wilmington 1960 20,485 23,528 44,013 87.07 (-6.91) 1970 21,245 24,924 46,169 85.24 (-7.97) Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department, U.S.. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Population. Nationally, sex ratios normally fall within a range of 95 to 102. Therefore, ratios Ioutside the range of 90 to 105 may be viewed as "signifi- cant variations'l.b Table 7 indicates a male deficit outside the normal aU.S. Bureau of the Census, The Methods and Materials of Demography, p. 192. bIbid., p. 191 22 range for New Hanover County, and an even greater disparity for Wilmington into the "extreme" range, where there were only 85 males to each 100 fe- males in 1970. Because sex ratios may vary between population subgroups the sex composition by race is depicted in Table 8. This table shows that while the county as a whole has a low sex ratio for whites, an even greater sex disparity exists within Wilmington for both races. The deficiency of males is in part attributable to migration patterns for both races. The disparity in the planning area's sex ratios, especially within the city, has several implications, including the following: 1. Demands for health and social programs designed for women, especially those in the younger and older age groups; 2. More women in the work force and demand for female-oriented industrial activity; and 3. A need for female-oriented job training and education for female heads of households in, or seeking to enter, the labor force; and a concurrent provision for child care if desired. 2) Age Composition Many planning activities require age data. The age structure of a population considerably affects social relationships within a community and demands placed upon public and private sectors in that community to meet needs. Age composition is an important variable in studies of mortality and fertility, housing demand, school population and labor force composition. An analysis of the percent distribution of population among age groups permits identification and analysis of changes in the county's age structure over time. This distribution for New Hanover County is illustrated in Figure 6 which shows the percentage of the county's 1960 and 1970 population in five-year age group increments. Comparing relative changes in age structure between the two censuses reveals a significant decrease in the percentage of population under five years of age and fewer youths in the five to ten age group. This reflects the declines in birth rate previously discussed, with in-migration account- ing for the absolute increases in this group. A second trend of major significance occurs in the fifteen to thirty age groups which experienced a relative increase in population between 1960 and 1970. Since these age groups are included in those most directly affected by migration, this trend, in Ipart, reflects a net in-migration most likely resulting from im- proved economic opportunities within New Hanover County. The thirty to forty-five age group experienced a relative decrease in population'between 1960 and 1970. This characteristic is hold-over from Ithe 1950's when the county experienced relatively heavy out-migration, and it is anticipated that this pattern will be evident in the future as these residents move into successively older age groups. 23 TABLE 8 MEASURES OF SEX COMPOSITION BY RACE 1950, 1960 and 1970 Year White Nonwhite I Sex % Male Sex % Male I.Male ' Female Total Ratio Deficit Male Female Total Ratio Deficit New Hanover 1950 20,854 22,576 43,430 92.37 (-3.96) 9,184 10,658 19,842 86.17 (-7.43) County 1960 25,053 26,691 51,744 93.86 (-3.17) 9,170 101828 19,998 84.69 (-8.29) 1970 30,935 33,016 63,951 93.70 (-3.25) 8,742 10,313 19,045 84.67 (-8.30) City of 1950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Wilmington 1960 12,935 14,460 27,395 89.45 (-5.57) 7,550 9,068 16,618 83.26 (-9.13) 1970 13,993 16,122 30,115 86.79 (-7.07) 7,252 8,802 16,054 82.39 (-9.65) Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department; U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census-of Population. FIGURE 6 12- 12 NE,W HANOVER, COUNTY -11 AGE DISTRIBUTION 1-10 lo- -1960 -1970 - p 9- -9 E R c E 8- 8 N T 7- 0- -7 P 6- T 6 T A 5- -5 L p 0 4- -4 p U L A T 1 -1960 0 2- N ---- wo 01 0 L I I I L 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+ AGE SOURCE: U S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Median il&!1 Is a statistical measure of age composition which may be defined as the age which divides the population into two equally-sized groups, one younger and the other older than the median age. For compara- tive purposes those populations with a median age under twenty may be defined as "young", those with medians between twenty and,twenty-nine as a "intermediate", and those thirty and over as "old". Based on census information New Hanover County has experienced a slight drop in median age between 1960 and 1970, from a median age in 1960 of 28.6 to 27.8 in 1970. Both of these are in the "intermediate" range (See Table 9), but, as already noted, the relative percentages of persons in older age groups have been increasing. Therefore, this decrease in median years re- flects the countering effect of the increases in the late teen years and early twenties. TABLE 9 NEW HANOVER COUNTY MEDIAN AGE -- 1960 and 1970 New Hanover County Wilmington Total Male Female TotaT Male Female 1960 28.6 26.9 30.1 29.1 26.6 31.1 1970 27.8 26.3 29.2 28.6 26.2 31.1 Source: U.S. Census of Population 3) Age Sex Composition A "population pyramid" is an effective method of graphically depicting the age-sex composition of a population. The basic population pyramid is designed to display the age-sex structure of a population, in this case in five year increments, in ascending order from the lowest to the highest, horizontally pyramided on one another. Each bar represents the number of persons within a specific five-year age group. The bars for females are given on the right of the central vertical axis with the bars for males being shown on the left of the axis. A normal population pyramid has no appreciable sags or large jumps between each age increment, and as shown in Figure 7, this typical situation does not exist in New Hanover County. The county's pyramids show that a large segment of young adults and middle aged persons are absent from the population. Since these years are normally those of @roductivity in the p aThe Methods and Materials of Demography, Vol. 1, p. 234, U.S. Depart- ment Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, May 1973. 26 F(GURE 7 AGE DISTRIBUTION NEW HANOVER COUNTY - 1960 & 1970 1960 85'+ 80-84 MALE FEMALE 75-79 1 1 70-'74 M NON WHITE 65-69- = WHITE 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-447 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PERCENT OF TOTAL BY RACE 1970 85+ 80-84 MALE FEMALE 75-79 70-74- NON WHITE-- 65-69 WHITE 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 55-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 --Jm 0-4 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 PERCENT OF TOTAL BY RACE work force, this decrease indicates an abundance of dependent persons, botli young and old in New Hanover County. The major causative factor is out-migration prior to the 1960's resulting primarily from better employ- ment opportunities elsewhere. During the 1960's, the number of white youths in the 0-4 age group, and to a lesser extent in the 5-9 group, decreased substantially relative to total population. This pattern is even more pronounced-in the nonwhite population for these age groups. A second observation of change over the decade is that exhibited by the white population in the age groups fifteen to twenty-nine where a sub- stantial relative increase@occurs. This trend is observable also in the ten to twenty-four year age groups of the nonwhite population. However, these increases are off-set by a decrease in the percent of tne total population in the age groups between thirty and forty-four-, a characteristic which is a remnant of the out-migration experienced prior to the 1960's. Both subgroups exhibit a relative increase in the number of persons in the forty-five years and older groups. Implicit in the increase in concen- tration of older aged persons in the community is the need to provide adequate recreational, housing, economic, and health care programs to meet the characteristic needs of that sector of the population. B. INCOME CHARACTERISTICS Accurate evaluation of the overall economic well-being of the planning areals residents is difficult because there are no indicators available which give a comprehensive view of the economic welfare of various segments of the population and at the same time remain sensitive to significant life- style variations among various families in the planning area. However, by making the simplifying assumption that life-styles in the area are similar, the accessibility of goods and services is perhaps the best measure of economic well-being; and income, as a rough measure of the household's access to goods and services, can be used as a crude indicator of overall economic well-being. 1) Average Income Average income is one of the most common measures of a population's income characteristics; statistically, however, there are several techniques for devising an average. The implications of using a particular technique should be understood because the improper use of income averages can bias the income analysis. mean and median income values are the "average" measures which have been used in this report to analyze income characteristics; however, it is important to make a careful distinction between the meaning of the two measures. Most'people when speaking of the "average" are actually referring to the arithmetic mean, and in the case of incomes, the mean is simply the sum of all family incomes divided by the number of families. Since this measure does not account in any way for the distribution of income, it may be considered a summary average which reflects the total income available in the planning area. 28 The 'median, as a measure of average income, is the income level at which half the families make more and half the families make less. Median income values are a measure of income distribution, and as such, they might be con- sidered a typical average which gives a rough idea of the typical income of families in the area. Thus, in an area where there exists a considerable disparity between the number of families in the lower income groups and those in the upper income groups, the median income may be considerably below the mean income. However, only in the case of a perfectly even income distribution will they be equal. 2) Planning Area Income Trends Analysis of the average income statistics found in Table 10 reveals some highly significant changes in the planning areals overall income characteristics during the 1960-70 decade. Although Wilmington's median family income moved closer to the mean during the past decade, there is still a considerable disparity between the-two values in both 1960 and 1970, indicating an uneven distribution of income with a concentration of families in the low income categories. On the other hand, the data show that families residing in areas outside the Wilmington City Limits have moved from a situation of even income distribution to one more closely re- sembling that of the city with a disproportionately large numbler of families in the lower income group. The 1960 mean and median values for rural families are almost equal, but in 1970 the median is far below the mean, These apparent changes in income distribution appear to be related to changes in the planning area's residential settlement patterns. In-migration of high income families resulting from expansion of the area's economy to- gether with the development of a number of residential subdivisions in the unincorporated areas of the county has produced an increase in the percentage of high income families residing outside the city. TABLE 10 PLANNING AREA MEAN INCOME VALUES, 1960 and 1970a Percent Area 1960 1970 increase 1960-70 Wilmington City Family Income Mean $5,162 $ 8,651 67.6 Median $3,870 $ 6,986 80.5 Rural New Hanover b County Family Income $10,804 106.8 Mean $5,224 Median 1 $5,002 1 8,547 70.9 Source : aU. S. Bureau of the Census, General Social and Economic Characteristics, 1960, 1970. bRural New Hanover County defined as all area outside city limits of Wilmington, including small incorporated areas. Income data is not reported for this geographical area; therefore, average values presented are estimates based on calculations using tabulations of income distribution. Although the statistics show a tendency toward unevenness in the distribution of income in areas outside the city, it should be emphasized that "rural" families have remained in a relatively better economic position than families residing in the city. In 1960, the typical city family income was $3,870 compared to a typical rural county resident income of $5,002 -- 29 percent higher. In 1970, the situation was similar. The typical income of a city family was $6'986 while that of the county was $8,547. In addition to showing relative changes in the distribution of income in the planning area, the 1960-70 family income trends also point to an actual improvement in the economic well-being of the area's residents. Table 11 presents a conversion of the average income information found in Table 10 to constant 1967 dollars. By converting to constant dollars and thereby discounting inflation, it is possible to better evaluate the area residents' actual increase in purchasing power. With the effects of inflation removed, the income statistics in Table 11 reflect a real upward trend in the income of typical planning area families. Between 1960 and 1970, the constant dollar median income for Wilmington families increased almost 38 percent, from $4,361 to $6,008. The median income for rural county families showed a corresponding increase of 30.4 percent during the same period. This apparent improvement of family incomes can be attributed to'changes in the structure of the planning area's economy during the past decade, and recent shifts in the characteristics of the area's employment provide an illustration of how economic expansion has affected incomes. In 1962, almost 75 percent of the planning area's total manufacturing employment was in nondurables -- employment which is characterized by stability, but relaEively low wages. By 1972, the nondurables share of total employment had decreased significantly, and employment in durables with related higher wages had in- creased to 47 percent of the total manufacturing employment.a It should be noted that this increased dependence on durables employment brings with it a somewhat higher risk of instability during periods of extremely adverse mational economic conditions.b 3) Income Characteristics of Major Population Subgroups Within the planning area's environment of generally improving economic conditions, it is important to examine the relative economic positions of the major subgroups of the area's population. In order to make these rela- tive comparisons, an income index has been constructed to relate the median incomes of white city families, nonwhite city families, rural county families and the median state income which is used as a standard. Median state income has been chosen as a standard of comparison because it repre- sents a geographic area having a similar life-style and economy to that of the planning area; and, it contains a sufficiently large sample of families not to be affected substantially by extreme local variations. aNorth Carolina Em ployment Security Commission, Annual Work Force Estimates, (Raleigh, 1972). bWilbur R. Thompson, A Preface to Urban Economics, (Resources for the Future, Inc.: Washington, 1968), pp. 150-160. 30 - TABLE I I AVERAGE INCOME VALUES IN CONSTANT DOLLARS 1960 and 1970 Constant 1967 Dollars Percent Increase Area 1960 1970 1960-70 Wilmington City Family Income Mean 5,818 7,440 27.9 Median 4,361 6,008 37.8 Rural New Hanover County Family Income Mean 5,887 9,291 57.8 Median 5,637 7,350 30.4 Source:, Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department; U.S. Census of Population. TABLE 12 INCOME INDICES FOR PLANNING AREA POPULATION GROUPS -- 1960 and 1970 Income Index 1960-70 1960 1970 Change Wilmington White Families 0.27 0.09 Wilmington Nonwhite Families (-0.42) (-0.46) (-0.04) Rural County Families 0.26 0.10 (-0.16) Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department; U.S. Census of Population. 31 The income index for each population group is calculated as follows: Income Index = Subgroup median family income State median family income Calculated in this manner, the income indicies can be.interpreted as follows: 1. A positive index indicates that the population group is relatively better-off than the reference population; 2. A negative index indicates that the population group is relatively worse-off than the reference group; and, 3. A positive 1960-1970 change indicates an improvement in the group's economic conditions, and a negative change indicates a deterioration. Based on these guidelines, the income indicies in,Table 12 show first, that the economic position of all three population groups declined relative to the state median family income during the 1960-70 decade; however, it is important to note that the income of typical Wilmington white families and rural county families remained substantially above that of the state in 1970, despite the sharp decline for the decade. Nonwhite families, on the other hand, exhibit extremely low income indicies for both 1960 and 1970, but with a smaller decline during the decade. The underlying factors which have produced these trends will be dis- cussed in detail in an analysis of the planning area's economy; however.- there appear to be at least two factors influencing the income characteris- tics of the major population: 1. While the areals expanding economy has produced changes in employment characteristics, the structure of the state economy has also changed;a and, 2. Structural unemployment and underemployment among nonwhite families resulting from remnants of economic discrimination and inadequate education. 4) Implications of Income Characteristics The family income trends which have been described for the planning area are intended to provide an overview of the residents' income characteristics. Using primarily median income as a measure of the economic well-being of typical families, the following factors have been identified: aAccording to the Bureau of the Census' Census of Manufacturing, for the years 1954, 1958, 1963, and 1967, per employee wages for the planning area was below that of the state. 32 1. The distribution of income among families residing in the rural portions of the planning area changed from a relatively even situation in 1960 to an uneven distribution in 1970 with a dis- proportionately large number of families in the lower income groups. 2. As a group, rural families are economically better off than city families. 3. In both 1960 and 1970 the city contained a proportionately large number of families in the low income range. 4. After removing the effects of inflation, planning area incomes still exhibited significant increases between 1960 and 1970. These increases are related to changes in the area's employment characteristics. 5. Among the major population groups in the planning area, the urban nonwhite population's economic position is the worst, with an extremely large concentration of families in the low income range. The statistics on which these trends are based are not detailed enough to be useful in the identification of specific problems related to income. They do, however, reveal several issues or concerns which should be explored in subsequent studies. Specifically, the following questions appear to be relevant: 1. Are there inequities in city and county tax structures and.if so, how can they be minimized? 2. How do income differentials affect housing demand and production problems? 3. Can economic development programs be designed to help alleviate severe income differentials among the planning area's residents? 4. What specialized facilities and services -- particularly in the area of education -- are indicated by the area's income characteristics? C. HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS A population's family composition is a significant demographic element in that it shows the circle of persons who function together as a unit for purposes of providing a livelihood, bearing and rearing children, rendering mutual care in times of stress, and sharing in various social and recreational activities. In this section an historical trend of households by type will be reviewed and important subgroup characteristics analyzed. A trend occurring nationally during the past several years has been that of a decreasing average household size. This trend has been experienced by New Hanover County as well. Three factors contributing to this decrease are (1) the slightly declining county birth rate, (2) an increase in single member households, and (3) the increased incidence of older households wi th no children present. In this section these single member households, households with female heads, Black households and average household size will be analyzed, trends discussed, and future household size estimated. 1) Average Household Size Since the 1950 census the average size of a household in New Hanover County has been decreasing (See Table 13). The average household size over the three decade period has been smaller within the city than in the county, with the 1970 average city household size slightly less than three persons (2.95) and the county average at just greater than three persons (3.08). The 1960 and 1970 censuses also list average household size for Blacks within the city and county. During the decade the average Black household size within the city decreased from 3.69 to 3.32, and from 3.75 to 3.37 for New Hanover County, both reflecting the trend of Black families toward smaller average household size. It should be noted that the Census of Population has two "household" components, families and primary,individuals, and this decrease in part reflects the increase in single member households aswell as the actual decrease in size of families. With the number of variables which influence the size of households -- factors such as religious attitudes, economic conditions, and the overall age of the population -- it is difficult to accurately forecast future household size. However, using the "least squares" projection techniqu@ and historical household trends, it is estimated that the average household size for New Hanover County in 1980 will be approximately 2.9 persons. This factor will be an important consideration in the determination of housing demand and land needs. 2) Single Member Households One member households have been increasing in the nation, a trend which is also.occurring in New Hanover County (See Table 14). Three basic reasons for this increase are a higher percentage of single people (never married), a lower percentage of married individuals, and a higher percentage of di- vorced individuals. It is expected that this, trend will continue in New Hanover County and, if so, housing stock should reflect the needs and life- style of these people. 3) Female Head of Household The number of women who head families has been increasing rapidly over the past several years. Causal variables cited for this rise in female family headship include high rates of marital dissolution through divorce and separation, an increase in the number of single femaie heads, the liberalization of adoption procedures permitting single parenthood, the increased economic independence and participation in the labor force of many women, and an increased availability of public assistance programs. In addition to the sociological implications of a matriarchal versus a patriarchal family structure there are economic factors associated with female family headship. Of the 3,153 families in New Hanover County with incomes below a federally defined poverty level., 45 percent had a female head. (See Table 15) Further, female headed families comprised 52 percent 34 TABLE 13 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER COUNTY, 1950, 1960 and 1970 Wilmingt. New Hanover County 1950 1960 1970 1950 1960 1970 Total 3.42 3.29 2.95 3.51 .3.37 3.08 White 3.08 2.83 3.30 3.00 Black 3.69a 3.32 3.75a 3.37 Source: U. S. Census of Population. TABLE 14 SINGLE MEMBER HOUSEHOLDS WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER COUNTY, 1960 and 1970 Wilmington New Hanover County 1960 1970 ---T960 1970 Total 2228 3513 2937 4784 White 1367 2325 1957 3468 Black 861b 1188 980b 1316 Source: U.S. Census of Population. a1960 data include all nonwhites. b1960 data include all nonwhites. -2- TABLE 15 FAMILY INCOME IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY, 1969 Income Less Than Poverty 75% Poverty 125% Poverty Total Level Level Level Total Families $21,994 $3,153 2,161 4,360 Percent of All Families 14.3 9.8 19.8 Mean Family Income or Deficita $ 9,368 $2,021 (-$1,114) (-$1,851) Families with Female Head 3,055 1,427 1,113 1,716 Mean Income $ 4,289 Percent of Total 14 45 52 39 Source: U.S. Census of Population, Table 124; Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. TABLE 16 HOUSEHOLD HEADSHIP IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY, 1970 Total White _____S=ack in Households 81 869 63,067 18,484 Male Head 18:686 15,885 2,744 Female Head 3,112 1,678 1,422 I I I Source: U.S. Census of Population, Table 36. TABLE 17 CHILDREN OF FEMALE HEADED FAMILIES IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY, 1970 Total White Black Female Headed Families 3,112 1,678 1,422 Own Children Under 18 1,717 866 840 Own Children Under 6 612 275 322 Source: U.S. Census of Population, Table 36. aNegative sign denotes income deficit. 36 of all families with an income less than 75 percent of the poverty level. Fourteen percent of New Hanover County's female headed families have a mean income of less than half (46 percent) that of male headed families. Black females headed over half (52 percent) of the Black households in 1970 for New Hanover County, contrasted with 16 percent for white families. This concentration of Black females is found primarily within the city, (Table 16). Table 17 shows thenumber of families having children under the ages of six and eighteen. This high incidence of female headed families again points to the need for the programs and facilities outlined in the section discussing sex composition disparity. It is evident that in addition to the need for health and social programs, female-oriented industrial activity, job training, and provision for child care, many of these female headed families simply may need financial assistance to sustain their families. -34-- - V. POPULATION PROJECTIONS Basic to all long-range planning activities is the need to have an accurate esLimate of future population size and composition. There are several methods which can be utilized for projecting the future population of an area. However, the cohOrt-survival method is widely regarded as the most reliable Lechnique. In this method, total population is broken down into five year age groups, by sex and race, and individually projected. These projections are based on the three major variables which affect pop- ulation change: birth rates, mortality rates, and migration rates of each age-sex-race group or "cohort-group". Three different cohort-survival projections were generated by using different growth trend assumptions and are presented in Table 18 and illus- trated graphically in Figure 8. The lowest-valued projection is based upon race-specific migration rates for the 1960-1970 decade and average birth rates for 1969-1973 which, as previously indicated, are declining. The. intermediate-valued projection assures that all trends of the 1960-1970 decade hold constant. This projection, using the Hamilton-Perry method, is based on the same migration rates as the lowest-valued one; however, it also uses the higher birth rate values of the 1960-1970 decade. The highest-valued projection is A departmentally modified North Carolina State Department of Administration projection. For this projection migration rates were recomputed using race-specific 1970-1973 school enrollment data. This projection differs from the lowest valued projection only by those modi- fied migration rates. TABLE 18 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS PROJECTED POPULATION YEAR LOW INTERMEDIATE HIGH 1980 94,038 97,546 101,317 1990 107,613 116,740 124,608 2000 122,829 140,283 151,147 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Commission Because the highest-valued projection reflects the latest values of birth and migration rates, it has been selected as the most reliable projection. This projection is illustrated graphically by race in Figure 9. 38 ADDENDUM 1 (5-21-76) The 50 year population projection for New Hanover County (year 2025) is 249,000. This figure is derived by applying the average decennial growth rate of the cohort-survival projection (22 percent) to the year 2020 and an 11 percent growth rate from 2020 to 2025. C@ FIGURE 8 160 160 TOTAL POPULATION - NEW HANOVERCOUNTY p 140- -140 0 .00 p ACTUAL U L PROJECTED A 120- T -120 0 CG 60- 0 N 0 loo- -100 T H 0 U 80- -80 s A N D s 60- -60 40 -40 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR FIGURE 9 160- - -160 151468 COHORT' SURVIVAL 140- -140 - MIGRATION RATES: - POPULATION PROJECTION White +14.29% p - TY Non White + 5.29% 0 120- NEW HANOVER COUN V-124608 oo - p -120 U L A T 100- 101317 0 -100 N 80- 82,996 T -80 0 U s A 6o- N -60 D s 40- -40 - NON 20- -20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 YEAR 4'.-l @01 317 `311 8@9 9 @6 A. AGE PROJECTIONS Age-specific population projections to the year 2000, based on the highest valued projection, are presented in Table 19, and the percentage age distribution to the year 2000 is illustrated in Figure 10. Table 19 offers a direct comparison of each five year age cohort to the horizon year. Figure 10, showing the relative relationship of each age cohort, clearly illustrates the lower birth rate and increased migration rate since 1970. Age-sex-race population projections, based on the highest value projection, along with the 1970 actualcomposition are presented in the appendix. Age-sex-. race percentage distribution projections are also illustrated in the appendix. B. TOWNSHIP POPULATION PROJECTIONS In order to arrive at population projections for the five townships of New Hanover County a simple regression, or "least-squares", method was employed. inherent in the projection are any boundary changes which have occured over the base period, specifically, annexations by the City and Township of Wilmington. The base data for arriving at the equation for each township were percent share of the total county population for the period 1930-1970. The percent share of each township was then projected in 10 year increments to the year 2000. The projected population of each township was then derived by applying the projected percentage of total county population from the highest valued co,hort-survival projection. Projected township populations along with estimates for January, 1975 are presented in Table 20. Differences between the township totals and the New Hanover County total discussed earlier are due to rounding. TABLE 20 NEW HANOVER COUNTY TOWNSHIP POPULATION PROJECTIONS LEAST-SQUARES METHOD TOWNSHIP JAN. 1975 1980 1990 2000 Wilmington 50,400 53,080 59,400 64,870 Cape Fear 6,720 7,520 9,540 11,930 Federal Point 5,940 7,070 9,990 13,680 Harnett 19,950 22,980 30,780 40,330 Masonboro 8,970 10,610 14,830 20,130 Total 91,980 101,260 124,540 150,940 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department Projections for New Hanover county and the City of Wilmington are graphically illu*strated in Figure 11. TABLE 19 AGE-SPECIFIC POPULATION PROJECTIONS NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1970 - 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Age Groups Number % Number % Number % Number % 0-4 7,117 8.6 8,652 8.5 10,750 8.6 12,509 8.2 5-9 8,229 9.9 8,054 7.9 10,666 8.5 12,593 8.3 10-14 8,254 9.9 8,076 8.0 9,817 7.9 12,201 8.1 15-19 7,731 9.3 9,277 9.1 9,080 7.3 12,027 7.9 20-24 6,828 8.2 9,349 9.2 9,207 7.4 11,176 7.4 25-29 5,940 7.2 9,158 9.0 11,115 8.9 10,967 7.2 30-34 4,859 5.9 8,413 8.3 11,407 9.1@ 11,289 7.5 35-39 4,648 5.6 6,836 6.7 10,474 8.4 12,745 8.4 40-44 4,942 6.0 5,224 5.2 9,054 7.3 12,224 8.1 45-49 5,270 6.3 4,754 4.7 7,004 5.6 10,707 7.1 50-54 4,686 5.6 4,908 4.8 5,182 4.2 8,988 5.9 55-59 4,161 5.0 4,951 4.9 4,456 3.6 6,551 4.3 60-64 3,366 4.1 4,263 4.2 4,496 3.6 4,753 3.1 65-69 2,629 3.2 3,526 3.5 4,210 3.4 3,791- 2.5 70-74 1,938 2.3 2,666 2.6 3,365 2.7 3,560 2.4 75-79 1,202 1.4 1,550 1.5 2,073 1.7 2,492 1.6 80-84 683 0.8 901 0.9 1,240 1.0 1,552 1.0 85+ 513 0.6 759 0.7 1,012 0.8 1,343 0.9 TOTAL 82,996 101,317 124,608 151,468-- 42 FIGURE 10 NEW HANOVER COUNTY AGE DISTRIBUTION p 10- -10 E 1980-1990-2000 R c E 9- -9 N T 8- -8 T 0 7- 7 T A L -6 P 0 P 5- 5 U L A 4- -4 v T I I - 1980 N 3- -3 2- .0- 7___o + -21 I H 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 so 85+ AGE SOURCE: WILMINGTON -NEW HANOVER COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT POPULATION GROWTH AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND THE CITY OF WILMINGTON 1940-2000 FIGURE 11 ITO- 170 - LEGEND 150- NEW HANOVER COUNTY A -150 p CITY OF WILMINGTON 0 - ACTUAL POPULATION p u PROJECTED P -PULATION L i3o- -130 A T 0 N 110- -110 T so- -90 H u s N TO- -TO, D 50- -50 0. .000 ..... ..... 50- 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 30 L YEAR APPENDIX A TABLE I AGE-SEX-RACE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1970 White White Nonwhrt-e Nonwhite Age Groups male Female Male Female Total 0-4 2,686 2,615 897 919 7,117 5-9 3,083 3,073 1,018 1,055 8,229 10-14 3,040 2,886 1,185 1,143 8,254 15-19 2,812 2,778 1,070 1,071 7,731 20-24 2,706 2,841 589 692 6,828 25-29 2,485 2,531 391 533 5,940 30-34 2,025 1,996 337 501 4,859 35-39 1,880 1,933 314 521 4,648 40-44 1,912 2,038 414 578 4,942 45-49 1,973 2PO91 509 697 5,270 50-54 1,668 1,812 561 645 4,686 55-59 1,451 1,649 521 540 4,161 60-64 1,122 1,480 333 431 3,366 65-69 837 1,133 236 423 2,629 70-74 589 912 173 264 1,938 75-79 372 617 91 122 1,202 80-84 175 366 45- 97 683 85+ 119 265 48 81 513 TOTAL 30,935 33,016 8732 1 10,313 1 82,996 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970 Census of Population APPENDIX A TABLE 2 1980 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS HIGH RANGE AGE-SEX-RACE SPECIFIC POPULATION PROJECTIONS NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1980 White White Nonwhite Nonwhite Age Groups Male Female Male Female Total 0-4 3,285 3,119 1,129 1,119 8,652 5-9 3,185 3,031 924 914 8,054 10-14 3,085 988 1,009 8,076 15-19 3,410 3,575 1,100 1,192 9,277 20-24 3,507 3,508 @1,061 1,273 9,349 25-29 3,665 3,628 878 987 9.,158 30-34 3,494 3,547 642 730 8,413 35-39 2,991 2,888 381 576 6,836. 40-44 2,271 2,117 347 489 5,224 45-49 1,923 2,012 308 511 4,754 50-54 1,864 2,053 427 564 4,908 55-59 1,763 2,030 561 657 4,951 60-64 1,461 1,804 465 533 4,263 65-69 1,118 1,510 389 509 3,526 70-74 807 1,271 236 352 2,666 75-79 438 796 105 211 1,550 80-84 207 @494 58 142 901 85+ 152 405 66 136 759 TOTAL 38,626 40X782 �=10 0T5__f 11,904 101,317 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department 46 APPENDIX A TABLE 3 1990 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTION HIGH-RANGE AGE-SEX-RACE SPECIFIC POPULATION PROJECTIONS NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1990 White White Nonwhite Nonwhite Age Groups Male Female Male Female Total 0-4 4,113 3,905 1,372 1,360 10,750 5-9 4,246 4,041 1,196 1,183 10,666 10-14 3,773 3,571 1,244 1,229 9,817 15-19 3,523 3,526 998 1,033 9,080 20-24 3,559 3,639 885 1,124 9,207 25-29 4,444 4,669 903 1,099, 11,115 30-34 4,528 4,380 1,156 1,343 11,407 35-39 4,411 4,140 856 1,067 10,474 40-44 3,918 3,762 661 713 9,054 45-49 3,059 3$006 374 565 7,004- 50-54 2,214 2,133 358 477 5,182 55-59 1,718 1,953 303 482 4,456 60-64 1,632 2,044 354 466 4,496 65-69 1,358 1,859 374 619 4,210 70@74 1,051 1,549 330 435 3,365 75-79 585 1,061 173 254 2,073 80-84 284 688 79 189 1,240 85+ 179 522 76 235 1,012 TOTAL 95 50,448 11,692 13,873 124,608 --4-7 APPENDIX A TABLE 4 2000 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTION HIGH-RANGE AGE-SEX-RACE SPECIFIC POPULATION PROJECTIONS NEW HANOVER COUNTY 2000 White White Nonwhite Nonwhite Age Groups Male Female Male Female Total 0-4 4,803 4,560 1,580 1,566 12,509 5-9 4,997 4,756 1,428 1,412 12,593 10-14 4,724 4,471 1,512 1,494 12,201 15-19 4,697 4,701 1,20 1,337 12,027 20-24 4,353 4,340 1,114 1,369 11,176 25-29 4,591 4,605 819 952 10,967 30-34 4,595 4,544 964 1,186 11,289 35-39 5,349 5,328 880 1,188 12,745 5,077 4,645 1,190 1,312 12,224 45-49 4,511 4,309 840 1,047 10,707 50-54 -3,820 3,790 682 696 8,988 55-59 2,733 2,917 368 533 6,551 60-64 1,938 2,124 297 394 4,753 65-69 1,323 1,788 226 454 3,791 70-74 1,174 1,755 251 380 3,560 75-79 711 1,306 166 309 2,492 80-84 370 838 110 234 1,552 85+ 239 696 125 283 1,343 TOTAL I _60,Q05 1 61,471 1 13,846 16, 1@46 151,468 48 APPENDIX a FIGURE 1 6- 6 WHITE NON WHITE 5- 5 P W MALE GREATER MIGRATION RATES E R [M] FEMALE GREATER + 1429% White c + 5.29% Non White E N 4- 911 -4 T A G E 0 F 3- -3 C-- P 0 P u L 2- 1 1 1 1 A ia T 0 N O-JI I I I I LO 01 (7) 0) -4 --J CD OD 10 1*11 cp 0 0 (31 0 ()1 cjl0-u0a0a0a000"0a0a OCAF)uloo MA8-01 @. @ @- @. -6 .6 z@ Z,. &) (@ , -@ -@ (@ + L r@ & & & .6 6, -@@ + w- w w 4 W 4 w .4 (D 0 4 ;0 4 (D 0 4 tD AGE GROUPS PROJECTED PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION: NEW HANOVER COUNTY WHITEaNON WHITE: YEAR 1980 APPENDIX 8 FIGURE 2 6- 6 WHITE NON WHITE 5- 5 W MALE GREATER MIGRATION RATES P I E GID FEMALE GREATER + 14.29 %White R + 5.29% Non White c 4 E 4- T A G E 0 -3 F 3- P 0 P U L Tm A 2- 2 T 0 N Od LO (M Cis 0) -4 -4 OD CD N CW W 4@- CA M 0 (p 0 al 0 L71 CA 0 al 0 CA 0 (x 0 (x 0 0 0 0 c" -- @a k (11 1@ .4 @, 61 61 @J @D + (0 .4 (D -4 ID .4 (D .4 0 .4 AGE GROUPS PROJECTED PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION: NEW HANOVER COUNTY WHITE a NON WHITE: YEAR 1990 APPENDIX B FIGURE 3 6- .6 WHITE NON WHITE 5- -5 P M MALE GREATER MIGRATION RATES E OU FEMALE GREATER + 14.29% White R 5.29% Non White c 4- E R + N -4 T A G E 3- 0 -3 -4:Z F - L p 0 P U 2- L 2 A .... T 0 N 0- N N (A (A a) a) -4 -4 cD oD Lo ? @n ? ? ? @ p , ? u 0 (A N r) (A (A 4 .4 U (A (7) 0) -J -4 OD 00 4@ LR 0 0 0 -4 -4 + 9 ? ? 9 ? ? v! 9 0 0 W -is 0 4, W 4 w -@ W, N N LW CA @1 @1 @D AGE GRl0UPs PROJECTED PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION: NEW HANOVER COUNTY WHITE & NON WHITE: YEAR 2000 PART 2. ECONOMIC RESOURCES TABLE OF CONTENTS Part 2. Economic Resources Page Introduction 4 I. Worker Profile 6 A. Data Sources 6 B. Labor Force Participation 7 C. Education 8 D. Unemployment 9 E. Commuting Patterns 12 F. Recruitable Labor Force 15 G. Work Force Characteristics 17 H. Income 18 II. Industrial Profile 26 A. Agriculture 26 B. Manufacturing 26 C. Construction 35 D. Retail and Wholesale Trade 39 E. Service Activities .43 F. Transportation 46 III. Population and Employment Forecasts 52' SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC TRENDS AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Labor Force Characteristics 1. When compared to Southeastern North Carolina as a whole, participation of both males and females in New Hanover County's labor force is very high. (a) In 1970, the male and female participation rates for the southeastern area were 73.3 and 40.5 respectively, while the county's rates were 81.8 and 48.8. (b) While male participation rates remained constant between 1960 and 1970, female rates increased significantly, from 40.3 to 48.8. 2. Overall the county's work force is well-educ ated, with slightly more than @one-half of the residents aged 25 years and over having completed high school and over 20 percent having completed some'college. However, the statistics reveal a wide disparity between the formal education levels of white resi- dents and nonwhites. 3. According to 1975 data, the Wilmington SMSA has the second lowest annual unemployment rate of all SMSA's in the state. Additionally, there appears to be no seasonal unemployment prob.lem of unusual proportions in the county. 4. Between 1960 and 1970, commuters, as a percent of the tptal work force more than doubled (from 8.2 to 16.5 percent), reflecting the growing reliance of the county on a regional labor force and its importance as a-source of jobs for residents of neighboring counties. It is expected that in-commuting will level off at about 20 percent of the total work force. 5. Surveys show that the county's recruitable labor area has a good supply of well-trained workers (approximately 3,400 available in September, 1974). 6. Work force data indicate that expansion of New Hanover County's economy has produced a substantial increase in the number of jobs. Between 1962 and 1972, the number of job opportunities in the county increased by 46 percent, from 28,500 to 41,500. During the same period, total population increased by only 17 percent, again confirming the county's position as a regional employment resource. Income 1. Since 1965, New Hanover County's total personal income has been increasing rapidly. Measured in current dollars total income increased by 126 percent during that 8 year period. 2. Disposable income, as measured by "effective buying income," is also in- creasing rapidly. New Hanover County's total effective buying income increased by 90 percent between 1967 and 1973. 3. Projections of personall income per capita indicate a favorable trend for the county. It is projected that total personal income per capita will increase to approximacely $7,311 in the year 2000 as compared to $3170 in 1970. 1,67 4. Increasing incomes can be attributed to increases in the number of residents employed in "new-type" and durable manufacturing sectors which are characterized by higher wages and salaries. 5. The retail trade sector has responded positively to rising incomes as evidenced'by' the expansion of existing establishments and the creation of new ones. Industrial Profile 1. The role of agriculture in New Hanover County's economy, as measured by dollar volumes, is minor, and it appears that it will diminish further unless national factors such as scarce energy and the close proximity of the county to lucrative eastern markets produces an up-swing. This is not to minimize the importance of agriculture as a user of land. 2. Manufacturing (a) Manufacturing is the major source of employment in New Hanover, employing over 25 percent of the county's total workers in 1972. (b) Between 1962 and 1972, while the percentage of manufacturing em- ployment to total work force remained relatively constant, a signi- ficant shift occurred from nondurables to durables employment. Durables employment is characterized by higher productivity and higher wages. (c) In 1972, the weekly wage for workers in "new-type" industries (primarily durables) averaged $181, as compared to $100 and $133 for "traditional" and "local ly-oriented" industries. 3. Construction (a) During the past decade the construction industry has been a major element in the local economy. For example, between 1966 and 1973 nearly 11,300 dwelling units were constructed in New Hanover County. (b) City construction activity valuation as measured in constant dollars has remained relatively stable since 1966. In contrast, value of new construction in the county during this period has tripled. 4. Wholesale and Retail Trade (a) The county's trade sector is second to manufacturing in terms of the employment of local residents. In 1972 approximately 20 percent of the county's total work force was employed in retail and wholesale trade. (b). Between 1967 and 1972 the total value of New Hanover County's retail sales, in constant dollars, increased from $132 million to $199 million, or 51 percent. (c) Leaders in retail sale$ volume in 1972 were food stores, automotive dealers, and general merchandise. These three groups accounted for over 57 percent of total county sales for that year. (d) As measured by a buying power index of approximately 2, New Hanover County demonstrated a high retail trade potential. (e) Tiholesaling is an important facet of the county's economy. According, to the latest available county level data (1972) the dollar volume of wholesale trarle exceeded retail trade volume by more than 15 e o tC r A f@) T@ 2 5. Service Activities (a) The county has experienced considerable growth in service industry activity in recent years. In the five years between 1967 and 1972 total adjusted county sales increased by 45 percent.. Population and EmploymentForecasts, 1. Using the "low", "moderate", and "high" population projections developed in Part 1. of this report as a base, employment was projected,for 1980, 1990 and the year 2000. 2. Because of the quality and timeliness of the data used in arriving at the "high" population projection it was selected as the population forecast for New Hanover County, and was used to.derive an employment forecast. 3. Resident Employment Forecast 1970 1980 1990 2000 Population 82,996 101,300 125,000 151,000 Percent in Labor Force 43.4 44.5 45.9 47.14 Labor Force 36,010 45,100 57,400 71,600 Percent Unemployed 3.3 5.0 5.0 5.0. Residents Employed 34 2 780 42,845 1 54,500 68,000 4. Also using the "high" population forecast employment by major industrial sector was projected to the year 2000. Sector Work Force Employment Forecast* 2000 1970 1980 1990 Total 38,210 47,500 60,500 73,950 Manufacture 9,830 12,400 16,100 19,400 Non-Manufacture 223520 29,250 37,800 47,400 Construction 2,110 2,700 3,250 3,900 TCU 2,890 3,750 5,000 6,350 Trade 7,360 9,900 13,450 17,350 Fire 1,220 1,700 2,090 2,600 Service 4,190 5,2100 6,@00 8,400 Government 4,640 5,800 7,070 8,600 ONIM t 130 200 265 25 3 ONA 5,390 5,500 6,300 6,86o 1i A r j. Ct -L I r 300 300 *Work force refers to the total number of workers employed in the county; work force includes residents and incommuters. INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES AND ORGANIZATION The analysis of New Hanover County's economy is a fundamental element in the Comprehensive Planning Process. The analysis has two major purposes: First, it complements the population analysis contained in Part I by pro- viding more detailed information on the economic characteristics of the county's residents and by providing a basis for evaluating population projections in the preparation of forecasts of future growtha; the second and equally important function of the economic analysis is to provide an economic information base from which to evaluate public policy alternatives and private decisions related to future growth -- land use, economic develop- ment, public service demands, and the related need for public facilities. Therefore, this study will provide a comprehensive view of how New Hanover County's economy is organized and how it operates. It will address basic economic questions such as the following: What are the characteristics Of the county's labor force? Where do workers employed in New Hanover County live? What are the county's sources of employment and income? Which industries are most important in the local economy? What are the prospects for growth? DEFINITION OF LOCAL ECONOMY In initiating any planning study, a basic requirement is a general understanding of the problems to be examined. Therefore, prior to organizing and defining the scope of the economic study, it was first necessary to develop a satisfactory working definition of the major elements of New Hanover County's economy and to approximate the extent of its economic influence. Although economists have developed more complex definitions, in this study the local economic system has been viewed simply as a collection of people and industries (groups of firms producing similar products) which have common economic interests and which occupy a definable geographic area. By simplifying the concept of the local economy to include two major elements (people and firms having common economic interests) this definition provides a sound framework for analysis of the Planning Area's economy. This analysis examines these two components of the economy and provides a profile of the county's labor and its industries. In addition the study contains projections and forecasts of the county's economic growth, as measured by employment. ORGANIZATION The report is divided into three major parts. The first part focuses on the people (workers) in the Planning Areas's economy. It includes an 'See discussion of population forecasts on page 43. 4 analysis of labor and work force characteristics, commutation patterns., and income. The second part of the report deals with industries (groups of firms .producing'similar products) in the local economy. The economy's major industries are examined basically from three perspectives: First, the historical importance of the industry in the development of the economy; second, the importance of the industry as a source of employment; and finally, the overall impact of that industry on the growth and development of the county's economy. The final section of the report deals with the prospects for future economic growth through projections and forecasts of future employment. Economic growth is addressed both in terms of total employment and employment in each of the major industrial categories. Taken as a whole, this report provides a detailed profile of the economy of New Hanover County. It provides a major portion of the economic data required to make sound decisions for the future. Its publication, however, should not be viewed as the final step in the process of economic analysis. Rather, it should be viewed as ' a first step, and the data and scope of the analyses included in the study should be continually up-dated, expanded, and revised to address the many questions raised by the study and to keep abreast of the county's ever-changing economic environment. I. 'WORKER PROFILE People are the basic component of New Hanover County's economy. They are the prime factors in both the production and consumption of the area's goods and services, and as such, the economic characteristics of the county's residents and its working force are major indicators of manpower problems and resources, as well as the potential for future economic expansion. The primary purpose of this section is to develop a profile of the people included in the county's economic system. The first portion of the profile is directed toward an analysis of the area's economically active " population which may be defined as those people who engage, in the produc- tion of goods and services. It includes an analysis of labor force and work force characteristics, an examination of commutation patterns, and an analysis of the major sources of income in the area. The second portion of the profile deals with New Hanover County residents as consumers, and it includes estimates of the county's total buying power and compares its commercial potential with other urban areas in the state. A. DATA SOURCES Employment data, the basis of the county's economic analysis, are available from several sources. However, each source has limitations'when applied in a county's economic analysis. The two sources of employment data -used most extensively in this report are census tabulations and North Carolina Employment Security Commission (ESC) data. While the U.S. Census of Population is the more comprehensive and accurate data source,.the census tabulations have a serious drawback -- employment data are collected by place of,residence rather than by place of work. Thus, a Brunswick County resident employed in New Hanover County ;@-ould be tabulated in Brunswick's employment. North Carolina Employment Security Commission data are collected on the basis of place of.work and more accurately reflect the geographic extent of the county's economic significance. The main disadvantage in using ESC data, however, is that estimates are based on a much smaller sampling and lack the statistical accuracy of census data. The distinction between these two sets of data is important in the analysis of local economies because it permits the description of employment from two perspectives. For example, labor force data make it possible to examine employment from the standpoint of New Hanover County's residents to determine how many are employed or unemployed and the social characteristics of the county's economically active population. On the other hand, work forcedata have more validity in describing the economy of New Hanover County and in analyzing the extent to which the county serves as an employment resource for residents of areas outside the county. 6 These two complementary types of data provide a complete overview of the county's employment; therefore, both data sources have been utilized in the development of New Hanover County's economic profile. B. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION Labor force participation is the most common measure of a population's economic activity. Basically, there are two measures of participation: the crude activity rate and the age-sex-specific activity rate. The crude activity rate represents the number of economically active persons (employed or seeking employment) as a percent of the total population. Since the crude rate is very sensitive to the population's age structure, it is only indica- tive of the relative number of persons in a population who are employed irrespective of other factors which may be involved. For example, low labor force participation may be the result of a large number of retired persons in the population, but this factor would not be revealed by the crude rate. Therefore, the major utility of crude activity rates is limited to measuring the county's general level of economic activity and converting employment projections into total.population projections. For the analysis of manpower resources and assessment of the local economy's performance in relation to supplying employment opportunities for the county's residents, the age-sex-specific activity ratea is a more useful measure of labor force participation. These rates are calculated for each sex, and they are a device for relating the actual number of persons partici- pating in the labor force to the countyts potentials as indicated by the total population in the economically active age group -- 16 to 65 years. As a standard of comparison, one would expect a very large percentage of males in the 16-65 age group to participate in the labor force.b New Hanover County's crude participation rates and age-sex-specific activity rates are found in Table 1. The crude rate showed a slight increase between 1960 and 1970, from 37.6 to 39.4. A major portion of this overall increase is attributable to more women in the labor force. The county's age-sex-specific rates indicate that participation of males in the labor force remained relatively constant between 1960 and 1970, with rates of 81.1 and 81.8 respectively. Participation by females, however, increased significantly from a rate of 44.3 in 1960 to 48.8 in 1970. aAge-sex-specific activity rates Are calculated by the following formula: Total male (female) employment X 100 Total male (female) population in the 16-65 age group bShyrock, Henry S., Methods and Materials of Demography, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, p. 367. TABLE I NEW HANOVER COUNTY LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES: 1960 and 1970 Po ulation Employment Acti ity Rates Are 6 to 65 Age-See -Specific Year Total male Female Total I Male Female Crude Male Female 1960 71,742 19,749 22,396 26,975 16,638 10,337 37.6 81.1 44.3 1970 82,996 24,225 26,478 32,750 19,814 12,936 39.4 81.8 48.8 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department; 1970 Census of Population Using the total 1970 age-sex-specific activity rates for southeastern North Carolinaa counties as a standard of comparison, New Hanover County's participation rates appear to be exceptionally high. in 1970, the male and female rates for the southeastern area were 73.3 and 40.5, respectively, while the county's rates were 81.8 and 48.8. The county's high labor force participation rates are the product of many factors, but it appears that the following are the most significant among these: The county's recent economic expansion has created expanded job opportunities for local residents. It appears that industrial expansions"have capitalized on resident skills, thereby permitting the entry of a large portion of the county's residents into the labor force. 2. Entry of women into the labor force has had a significant effect on overall participation rates, and greater female participation can be traced to changing attitudes of women toward work outside the home and to expanded employment opportunities for women. From this analysis, it appears that two trends are likely to occur in the future. First, the county's crude participation rate will likely continue to increase slowly as economic opportunities expand and the population becomes younger. Second, the participation of women in the labor force will probably continue to increase at a rapid rate; therefore, it is important that employ- ment opportunities keep pace with this rising demand. The implications of female participation in the labor force are discussed in Part I. C. EDUCATT-OF There is a high correlation between an area's economic potential and the educational attainment of its people. Formal education, labor force partici- pation, job adaptability, and wages are closely related, and industries in search of locations for new facilities favor communities having an educated and skilled labor force and having technical and continuing education programs through which their employees may upgrade their skills. aincludes the counties of Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Duplin, Jones, New Hanover, Pamlico, and Pender. 8 Overall, New Hanover County is in a very competitive position from the standpoint of both programs and facilities for education and the educational attainment of its labor force. In addition to its public school system, the county has business and technical schools, and a four year liberal arts college. Cape Fear Technical Institute offers a variety .of courses designed to meet the needs of local industry, and the Institute revises its curriculum to meet the changing needs of the community. The University of North Carolina at Wilmington offers continuing education courses in such fields as engineering and public affairs. The county's public education programs have also been very effective. Of the 100 counties in North Carolina, the New Hanover County school system currently has the fifth lowest,dropout rate (3.8 percent) for grades I through 12.a In part, it is believed by educators that this low rate is due to special programs, such as evening courses and work-study programs, which permit flexibility in school attendance. Although no direct measures of the educational attainment of the county's labor force are available, the educational characteristics of the county's 25 years and.older population which are published in the Census of Population provide an approximation of the labor force's educa- tional characteristics. These data have been used in Table 2 to develop an educational profile of New Hanover County residents. Overall, the county's work force is well-educated, with slightly more, than one-half.of the residents aged 25 years and.over having completed high school and over 20 percent having completed some college (see Figure 1). However, the statistics in Table 2 also reveal a wide disparity between the formal educational levels of white residents and nonwhites. Of the 9162 nonwhites in the 25 years and over age group in 1970, almost 75 percent had not graduatedfrom high school; and further, slightly more than half of the persons in this age group had only an,elementary education, or less. The profile indicates that the educational background of New Hanover County's labor force is a significant contribution to the county's overalli potential for economic development. At the same time, however, the county can never realize the full benefits. of its labor resources as long as a significant segment remains under-educated. Therefore, education must remain a primary consideration in the development of the county's economy. D. UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployme nt has been defined as a measure of all persons who did not work at all during a reporting period but who were able, available, and looking for work, and it is a measure of the performance of the local economy in providing jobs as well as a measure of unemployed persons as a percent of the total civilian labor force.b aSource: New Hanover County Board of'Education. bEmployment Security Commission of North Carolina, "North Carolina Labor Force Estimates", November 1974. FIGURE 1. 100%- COLLEGE GRADUATE OR MORE (9.7%) Of The 9.7 % 90% Are White And 10% Are Non White 90- SOME COLLEGE (11.50/6) Of T he 11.5 % - 9 2. 1 % Are White An d 7.9 % Are N on White p 80- E R C E N T 70- 0 F HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE (28.9%) c Of The 28.9%-88.2%Are White And 11.8%Are Non White 0 601 U N T Y p a 50 0 p U L A . .. .... . T 40- SOME HIGH SCHOOL (2 3.4%) 0 Of The 23.4% - 79.2% Are White And 20.8% Are Non White N AM@ 30- 20-j .......... ELEMENTARY SCHOOL(25.4%) Of The 2 5.4 % - 62.2 % Are Whi to An d 57 8 % Are Non White NO FORMAL EDUCATION (1.3%) 0% Of The 1. 3%- 41.4% Are White And 58.6% Are Non White EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY RESIDENTS AGED 25 AND OVER BY RACE, 1970. SOURCE: 1970 CENSU3 O.F.POPULATION, WILMINGTON-N.EW HANOVER PLANNING DEPARTMENT TABLE 2 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY RESIDENTS AGED 25 AND OVER, 1970 All Residents White Residents Nonwhite Residents Educational Total Male Female Total Total Characteristic No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No Formal Education 561 1.3 260 46.3 301 53.7 232 41.4 329 58.6 Elementary School 11,372 25.4 5,567 49.0 5,805 51.0 7,079 62.2 4,293 37.8 Some High School 10,475 23.4 4,451 42.5 6,024 57.5 8,294 79.2 2,181 20.8 High School Graduate 12,934 28.9 5,641 43.6 7,293 56.4 11,410 88.2 1,524 11.8 Some College 5,139 11.5 2,296 44.7 2,843 56.3 4,735 92.1 404 7.9 College Graduate or 4,328 9.7 2,350 54.3 1,978 45.7 3,897 90.0 431 10.0 More Source: 1970 Census of Population Average annual unemployment rates for New Hanover County compared favorably with those of the state in the years between 1970 and 1973.a (See Table 3). According to the latest available Employment Security Commission data (January 1975), the Wilmington SMSA had the second lowest unemployment rate of the seven state SMSA's reported, 8.1 percent (See Table 4). TABLE 3 NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND NORTH CAROLINA, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: 1970-1973 Year New Hanover County North Carolina 19 70 3.4% 4.3% 1971 4.3 4.8 1972 2.9 4.0 1973 2.3 3.5 Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina TABLE 4 NORTH CAROLINA SMSA UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: JANUARY, 1975 North Carolina 10.4 Asheville 10.4 Burlington 10.9 Charlotte - Gastonia 9.5 Fayetteville 9.2 Greensboro - Winston Salem High Point 8.3 Raleigh - Durham 5.1 Wilmington 8.1 Source: "Manpower Newsletter", North Carolina Employment Security Commission E. COMMUTING PATTERNS Commutation, or the travel of a worker to a county-other than his place of residence for employment, has major implications forthe Comprehensive Planning Process and for the county's overall economic development. First, and perhaps most important, is the relationship between an areals commutation patterns and the size of the labor pool from which new and existing economic activities can recruit employees. For example, a high rate of commutation a Employment Security Commission data at the county level is normally not available until late in the following year. Therefore, data is not yet available for calendar year 1974 for the county. - 12 indicates a willingness to travel for employment and is a rough measure of the geographic area from which employers might expect to draw employees. Similarly, commutation patterns also provide a measure of the geographic extent of New Hanover County's economic significance and is a measure of the extent to which the county serves as an employment resource for neighboring counties.' Finally, commutation affects employee spending patterns. While a worker may spend a portion of his salary in the area in which he works, a major share is normally spent on necessities such as food, rent, or mortgage payment At his place of residence, thus creating a "leakage" of money out of the economy. At the same time, however, it should be noted that the in-commuting employee does not demand the same level of public services and expenditures as the permanent resident. Regardless of the net economic effect of commuting workers, commutation patterns are a function of residential preferences, as well as job opportunities,and the established commuting patterns of current workers are difficult to modify to any great extent. Change in commutation patterns are affected primarily by either the location of new job opportunities or by in-migrant residential preferences. The commuting patterns shown in Table 5, reflect the growing economic interdependence of New Hanover County and its neighboring counties. During the 1960-70 decade, the number of residents traveling outside the county for employment increased from 1518 to'2335. Similarly, the number of residents of neighboring counties employed in New Hanover inc@reased from 2195 in 1960 to 6055 in 1970. The overall effect of these trends has been an increase in net commuting (in-commuters minus out-commuters) from 677 in 1960 to 3720 in 1970, or approximately 450 percent. The county's 1970 net commuting patterns are illustrated in Figure 2. In both 1960 and 1970, Brunswick and Pender Counties were the major sources of New Hanover's in-commuters. In 1960, Brunswick furnished 945 commuters and Pender County furnished 613 commuters to New Hanover County. By 1970, the number of commuters from these counties had increased to 1837 and 1692 respectively. It is important to note that between 1960 and 1970 the number of commuters from Brunswick County as a percent of the total ' decreased sharply. At the same time, out-commuting from New Hanover County to Brunswick has increased significantly. In 1960, 381 New Hanover residents were employed in Brunswick. In 1970, the number of out-commuters to Brunswick County had increased to 1154 -- more than 300 percent. The trends in commutation between New Hanover and Brunswick Counties are clearly the result of recent'expansion of employment opportunities in Brunswick. It is impossible to determine whether commuters to Brunswick County are "established" New Hanover residents or whether they are "new" residents who have moved to the area specifically as a result of employment in Brunswick County. However, given existing atiienities in New Hanover County, including the level of public and private community,services and facili- ties and more extensive shopping opportunities, it is reasonable to expect that a large percentage of the Brunswick commuters are new residents who have located in New Hanover County as a result of its residential preferences. The economic questions associated with providing services to residents without having the advantages of the associated industrial tax base will be explored in a subsequent study of county costs and revenues. TABLE 5 COMMUTING PATTERNS FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1960-1970 COUNTY 1960 1970 OUT- IN- OUT- IN- COMMUTING % COMMUTING % COMMUTING % COMMUTING % Bladen 10 0.7 60 2.7 7 0.3 327 5.4 Brunswick 381 25.1 943 43.0 1154 49.4 1837 30.4 Columbus 277 18.2 210 9.5 194 8.3 825 13.6 Duplin 26 1.7 26 1.2 23 1.0 344 5.7 Pender 129 8.5 613 27.9 168 7.2 1692 27.9 Sampson 15 1.0 32 1.5 0 0 57 0.9 Elsewhere 680 44.8 311 14.2 789 33.8 973 16.1 Total 1518 100 2195 100 2335 100 6055 100 Net Commuting Gain +677 +3,720 Source: North Carolina Commuting Patterns: 1960 and 1970; Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, developed from ESC data and unpublished census data. FIGURE 2 NET COMMUTING PATTERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1970 o DUPLIN P SAMPSON' e- 0 BLAIDEN RENDER aeo 0\0 a % 631 17 % 3720 COLUMBUS all 0 0 sto BRUNSWICK COUNTIES NOT SHOWN SOURCE: North Carolina Commutina Patterns:1960 1970 Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, developed from ESC data and unpublished census data. The county's commuting patterns also emphasize the importance of New Hanover as an employment resource in the Southeastern North Carolina area. F. :RECRUITABLE LABOR FORCE Recruitable labor force and labor force recruiting area areconcepts closely associated with commuting patterns, and they are one of the factors considered in a new industry's decision to locate in the area. The labor force recruiting area is generally determined by driving time and distance (25 miles and 30 to 40 minutes for Wilmington), The recruitable labor force within the labor area is normally measured by the number of active ESC job applicants. Using Wilmington as the center point@, New Hanover County's labor force recruiting area is illustrated in Figure 3. The number of active job appli- cants, according to September 1974 ESC data, are listed in Table 6. These data show that the county has not only a significant potential labor supply but also that its labor supply is well-trained. Of the 3,365 registered job applicants, almost 90 percent have substantial work experience (Table 7 provides a profile of the labor supply by occupational classification). From this analysis of commuting patterns and labor force recruitment, it is evident that the availability of labor is not at this'tfme a limiting factor in the development of New Hanover County's economy. TABLE 6 NUMBER OF REGISTERED JOB APPLICANTS RESIDING WITHIN THE WILMINGTON LABOR RECRUITING AREA: SEPTEMBER, 1974 With Substantial With Limited or Miles Persons Reg stered Work Experience No Work Experience Total -Male Female Male Female Male Female 0-15 2,695 1,375 1,320 1,260 1,140 115 180 15-20 280 135 145 125 135 10 10 20-25 390 180 210 170 195 10 15 Total 3,365 1,690 1,675 1,555 1,470 135 205 Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina -41 @_ FIGURE 3 LABOR FORCE RECRUITING AREA NEW HANOVER COUNTY 13 V21 W 16 117 53 urga Atkin Wards rner 6 Holly R I d$ 4 D E "I C elly 3 Rodw-PA 1 21 2 Del Mar 'a 1-h 21 Surf City No. C'. 00o, 3 50 u cil 8 1. mv. 4213 ampste t A di 3 w Topsail Beach Castl: rov it Inlet, iegel/.d Hay .17Scatt;)iil how Bolton 7 48 4 c e 1 OP3.11 1. t 117 132 3 Lk oAst reeman elco hoenix .0'Int .Mm., WA0 Ma 74 S 776 M450+1el B ela 31134@,-AWK. C-d.. illming 3 1 uss N-A C., 'Y7 rightsvilt Beach 9 .11"ip3 Bishop M-i@j 4 Creek A5 421 baroAd ly 'd Mason 120 '-. 17 5 R U S C Seabreeze ia Co. ing Carolina Beac Suppil ses reo" 2 Witminzto&08 6 nd ach qh- Smith 2 Fl. Fih., @@unrboer 33 3 n1el Holden 4, *44 Long Yaopon ch Beach Beach Bea Caswell SMIN J. "NP Beach &,CAPE FEAR IGHTHOUSE SOURCE: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. TABLE 7 MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL CLASS OF JOB APPLICANTS SEPTEMBER, 1974 Male Female Total Professional, Technical, and Managerial 130 90 220 Clerical and Sales 140 445 585 Service 90 355 445 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 25 45 70 Processing 30 30 60 Machine Trades 130 70 @200 Bench Work 45 175 220 Structural Work 440 20 460 Miscellaneous Occupations 240 75 315 Partialsa 420 370 790 Total 1,690 1,675 3,365 Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina aPartials are defined as persons registered for work but whose applications had not been assigned an occupational class 16 G. WORK FORCE CHARACTERISTICS As discussed previously (page 4), the work force concept provides a different, but significant, perspective on local employment. In contrast .to labor force data which are collected from individuals and provide employment information by place of residence, work force data are collected from establishments and provide a measure of employment by place of work. Therefore, work force estimates furnish a measure of the actual number and types of jobs provided in New Hanover County. New Hanover County's work force estimates for 1962, 1967, and 1972, which are summarized in Table 8, indicate a substantial increase in the number of jobs provided by the local economy. In 1962, firms in New Hanover County provided an estimated 28,500 jobs, and by 1972, the number of jobs had increased to approximately 41,500, an increase of almost 46 percent. In addition, Table 8 shows that the number of jobs in the county is also increasing faster than the population. While the work force increased by 46 percent between 1962 and 1972, the county's total population increased by only 17 percent during the same period. Further, the county's work force as a percent of total population also increased significantly. For examplet in 1962 the work force was approximately 39 percent of the population, and in 1972 it had increased to 48 percent of the total population. These trends verify earlier conclusions concerning the county's position as a regional employment resource. Not only is the county providing adequate job opportunities for its indigenous population and a large number of migrants, it also provides a large number of jobs for residents of sur- rounding counties. TABLE 8 NEW HANOVER COUNTY WORK FORCE AND SIZE'OF POPULATION: 1962, 1967 and 1972 - Year Percentage Ch nge 1962 1967 1972 1962-1967 1967-1972 J-962-1972 Estimated Total 73,640 77,883 86,600 5.7% 11.2% 17% Population Civilian Work Forcc 28,480 34,210 41,510 20.1 21.3 45.7 (Number of jobs). Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, 1960 and 1970 censuses of Population, and Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. Table 9 provides an overview of the types of jobs found in New Hanover County. As expected, manufacturing is the most important source of jobs, accounting for slightly more than 25 percent of all employment in 1972. Within the manufacturing classification, it is important to note the changing distribution of jobs between durables and non-durables. In 1962, approximately 73 percent of all manufacturing employment was in the production of nondurable materials. By 1972, the share of non-durables employment had decreased to only 53 percent. This change in the durables nondurables employment mix is a key factor in the county's rising incomes, since traditionally durables employment yields higher wages than non-durables (a detailed discussion of this relationship is found on page 18.) Trade is the second most important source of employment with approxi- mately 20 percent of the county's jobs in 1972. Government is the third leading employment sector accounting for approximately 12 percent of the total. Considering the ten year trend illustrated in Table 9, it appears that employment in both of these sectors has remained steady as A percentage of total county employment. Agriculture has not been significant in the county's economy with respect to employment for some time, and its share of total employment is continuing to decline. Between 1962 and 1972, agricultural employment declined by more than 40 percent -- from 760 to 450. The distribution of county employment among major sectors of the economy is illustrated in Figure 4. H. INCOME Analysis of income is a fundamental el ement of basic comprehensive planning studies. It serves both as a social indicator which measures the economic well-being of the planning area's residents and as an economic indicator which measures the quality of the planning area's em- ployment opportunities and its potential for consumer-oriented business activity. Since the social implications of the Planning Area's income characteristics were discussed in detail in Part I, the major focus of this section is the implications of income for the local economy. Specifically, two income measures will be discussed. The first, total personal income, is an indicator of the area's overall growth or decline and provides a basis for analyzing the sources of income for the residents of the planning area. The second measure is effective buying income, or disposable income, which is an indicator of the resident's access to consumer goods and is also a measure of the area's commercial potential. Together, these measures can provide a balanced analysis of the Planning Area's income characteristics. 1) Income Statistics The decennial census is the most reliable source of income statistics for planning purposes; however, use of census statistics in the analysis of in- come characteristics has two disadvantages: 18 TABLE 9 NEW HANOVER COUNTY ANNUAL WORK FORCE ESTIMATES: 1962, 1967 and 1972 1962 1967 1972 Number % Number % Number % Civilian Work Force 28,480 34,210 - 41,510 Unemployment, Total 1,860 6.5% 1,430 4.27, 1,140 2.7% Employment, Total 26,620 93.5 32,780 95.8 40,370 97.3 Manufacturing 6,400 24.10 7,880 24.0 10,160 25.2 Durable 1,730 6.5 2,930 8.9 4,760 11.8 Non-durable 4,670 17.5 4,950 15.1 5,400 13.4 Construction 1P160 4.4 1,840 5.6 2,280 5.7 Transportation, Communication, and Public.Utilities 1,920 7.2 2,710 8.3 3,200 7.9 Trade 4,990 18.7 5,870 17.9 8,090 20.0 Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 1,010 3.8 1,040 3.2 1,510 3.7 Service 2,740 10.3 3,560 10.9 3,930 9.7 .Government 3,050 11.5 4,030 12.3 5,010 12.4 Agriculture 760 2.8 570 1.7 450 1.1 Other 4,590 17.3 5,280 16.1 5,740 14.3 Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina and the Wilmington-New Hanover Flanning Department. FIGURE 4 EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1972 AGRICULTURE 1.1% ALL OTHER NON-AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT 14.3 % MANUFACTURING 25.2% Durable Mfg. OTHER GOVERNMENT 12.4% Non-durable Mfg. 13.4% CONSTRUCTION 5.7% SERVICES 917% TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, PUBLIC UTILITIES 7.9% FINANCE, INSURANCE a REAL ESTATE 317% TRADE 20.0% I. Census data are seldom current. The most recent information currently available is five years old, and its use will not reflect significant recent changes in the Planning Area's income characteristics. 2. The Census reports gross income rather than actual net cash income available for the purchase of goods and services. Complementary data to overcome this shortcoming has been obtained from Sales Management magazine's "Survey of Buying Power" and the U.S. Department of Commerce's "Survey of Current Business". 'Sales Management magazine's "Survey of Buying Power" reports data through 1973 and the "Survey of Current Business" reports data through 1972. 2). TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME Total personal income is defined as all income from land, labor, and capital before the deduction of federal, state and local taxes. Analysis of past trends in total personal income reveals the degree of economic well-being and dynamics of an area such as decline, stability, or growth. Figure 5 illustrates past trends in total personal income for the Wilmington SMSA in both constant and current dollars and reveals two distinct growth periods between 1950 and 1972. The first period, from 1950 to 1965, was one of relatively slow growth; the second"pekiod, 1965 to 1972, was one of much greater growth. During the 15 years between 1950 to 1965 total personal income in current dollars increased by approxi- mately 112 percent. In the next seven years, or approximately half the previous time period, total personal income increased by over 126 percent. After converting the data to constant 1967 dollars to discount the effects of inflation, the growth rates for these two periods are 62 percent and 71 percent, respectively, indicating that even with growing inflation incomes are still increasing. In addition to the trends revealed in Figure 5, the total personal income growth of the Wilmington SMSA has been compared with that of four other North Carolina SMSA's -- Burlington, Asheville, Fayetteville, and Raleigh-Durham.@ Although total personal income is primarily a reflection of population size, it can be seen in Figure 6 that in the period from 1965 to 1972 income in the Wilmington SMSA exceeded that of the Burlington SMSA, which has approximately the same size population 3) EFFECTIVE BUYING INCOME Effective buying income (EBI) is total personal income -- wages, salaries, interest dividends, property income, and transfer payments -- minus federal, state, and local taxes. It represents disposable income or income which residents can actually spend, save, or invest. Table.10, which is illustrated graphically by Figure 7, presents effective buying income for three urban.North Carolina counties (New Hanover, FIGURE 5 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME BY RESJDENTS WILMINGTON SMSA 1950 to 1972 M 500- I CURRENT DOLLARS L 1967 DOLLARS L 400- N S 300- 0 F D 200- 0 L L 100- A R S 0 1950 1959 1965 19691972 YEAR FIGURE 6 FIGURE 7 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME EFFECTIVE BUYING INCOME BY RESIDENTS NEW HANOVER, DURHAM a BUNCOMBE COUNTIES SELECTED SMSA!S 1964 THROUGH 1973 (CURRENT DOLLARS) (CURRENT DOLLARS) 2000- 600 7 @ 1965 to 1974 sales management survey M of buying. power,(f urther reproduction 1 500- Is forbidden). L 1000- L 1 M 900- 0 1 800- N 400- L 700- S L 4V 0 1 600- 0 F N 500- 300- S Z D 400- 'k 0 0 L F L 200- 300- A -NEW HANOVER COUNTY D R 0 S DURHAM COUNTY L L 200- 100- _-BUNCOMBE COUNTY A R. (ate- s 0 10 1.964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 0 YEAR 90 so 1950 1959 1965 19691972 YEAR SOURCE: Survey of Current Business, U.S. Department of 0 Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, May, 19T2. Durham, and Buncombe) located within the three geographical provinces of the state -- Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Mountain. New Hanover County's total EBI nearly doubled during the period 1967-1973 with a growth rate of 90 percent. This greatly surpassed the two other representative urban counties. The total EBI represents the potential market for consumer items; therefore, it is a useful tool for retail enterprises desiring to locate additional outlets. TABLE 10 EFFECTIVE BUYING INCOME NEW HANOVER, DURHAM, AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES: 1967, 1970, and 1973 (Current Dollars) Effective Buying Income County (Thousands of dollars) Percentage Change 1967 1970 1973 1967-1970 1970-1973 1967-1973 New Hanover 278,895 362,056 46.5 29.8 90.2. Durham 333,194 437,265 585,107 31.2 33.8 75.6 Buncombe 357,559 429,299 549,266 20.1 27.9 53.6 Source: Sales Management Survey of Buying Power; further reproduction is forbidden. 4) EBI PER HOUSEHOLD In order to more accurately compare effective buying incomes among different counties it is desirable to discount the effects of population differences since total effective buying income is largely a reflection of population size This is accomplished by the use of effective buying income per hous;hold. EBI per household represents the disposable income earned by each household. In this sense, effective buying income per house- hold more accurately reflects the purchasing power of the county's residents and the overall economic retail potential of the county than does total effective buying income. Table 11, which is illustrated graphically by Figure 8, presents effective buying income per household. Although a slight decline in EBI per household between 1971 and 1972 caused a decline in the county's overall growth rate from 1967 to 1973, from 1967 to 1973 the county's growth rate greatly exceeded the rates for Durham and Buncombe Counties. in 1967 Durham County's EBI per household was approximately $1,400 greater than New Hanover's, but by 1973 this difference was nearly halved to a difference of only $771. During this same period, New Hanover County's effective buying income per household grew from approximately $250 less to more than $1,150 greater than that of Buncombe County. TABLE 11 EFFECTIVE BUYING INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD NEW HANOVER, DURHAM, AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES: 1967, 1970, AND 1973 (Current Dollars) EBI Per Household Percent Change County 1967 1970 1973 1967-1970 1970-1973 1967-1973 New Hanover 8,064 10,253 11,949 27.1 16.5 48.2 Durham 9,466 10,562 12,720 11.6 20.4 34.4 Buncombe 8,315 9,134 10,791 1 9.8 18.1 29.8 Source: Sales Management Survey of Buying Power. FIGURE 8 EFFECTIVE BUYING INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD NEW HANOVER, DURHAM, AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES: 1964-1973 (CURRENT DOLLARS) 15,000- 10,000- I N C 0 M E 5,000- Now Hanover County .------Durham County ----Buncombe County 0 1964 1965 1966 1967 19es 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 YEAR SOURCE: Sales management survey of buying power, (further reproduction Is forbidden.) 5) FACTORS RELATED TO INCREASING INCOMES Changes in manufacturing employment have had a major impact on New Hanover County incomes. Reference to Figures 14, 15, and 16 in the Industrial Profile section reveals significant changes in manufacturing employment characteristics in New Hanover County during the 1962 to 1972 period in which the county experienced'rapid income growth. The county's employment trends over the last decade show a steady significant increase in new-type and durable manufacturing sectors which are characterized by higher technical skill requirements and higher wages and salaries. This trend stimulates the up-grading of skills by local citizens and the migra- tion of more semi-skilled, skilled, and professional employees to the county. Diversification and the resulting improvement in the county's indus- trial mix has closely paralleledrising incomes. The growing durable industries, in addition to providing increased incomes, are importing money to the local economy by exporting goods to markets outside the county. The nature of unemployment trends in New Hanover County is closely related to the increasingly diversified industrial mix. Tables 3 and 4 in the Labor Force Characteristics section of this report illustrate the favorable employment trends in the Wilmington SMSA compared with the state and other SMSA's within the state. For the period 1970 through 1973 the county's unemployment rate averaged 0.9 percentage points below the state. Although New Hanover County has suffered from the recent national economic recession, the Wilmington SMSA had the second lowest unemployment rate of the seven North Carolina SMSA's and was 2.3 percentage points below the state as a whole in January, 1975. This relatively low rate for the area is a reflection of local industrial diversification, thus eliminating the reliance on one or two types of manufacturing employment and lowering the local economy's susceptibility to fluctuations in the national economy. SUMMARY The preceeding analysis of Planning Area incomes indicate: 1. The Planning Area income is increasing at a rapid rate even when compared with other urban counties in the state. 2. This increase is attributable.in large part to parallel changes in the type of manufacturing employment and accompanying industry mix which, in turn, is affecting greater immigration of profes- sional, skilled, and semi-skilled workers. 3. This growing population and accompanying increasing incomes is stimulating a rapidly growing trade sector which is serving both the local population and an expanding trade area outside the county. _-2-57- II. INDUSTRIAL PROFILE This section provides the second element of the profile of New Hanover Countyls economy by tracing the growth and development of the county's industrial sectors over a period of years. Major emphasis has been given to identifying significant changes in the industrial composi- tion in recent years; the factors causing these changes; and the effects of these changes on employment, income and other important aspects of New Hanover County's economy. In developing this descriptive profile of the county's industry, no attempt has been made to determine the interrelation- ships between industries and their markets. This aspect of the local economy is described in a separate technical document which,uses the "Input-Output" technique to analyze New Hanover County's economy.a A. AGRICULTURE Agriculture has played an important part in New Hanover County's development. The part-time farmer is still relatively common in outlying parts of the county, particularly in the Castle Hayne area. However, the role of the agricultural sector of the area's economy as measured in dollar volume is minor and.appears to be diminishing further. The major dollar volume crops in the county are flowers, nur ,sery crops, soybeans, and tobacco- Horticulture accounted for approximately 45 percent of the county's total farming revenues in 1971. The increasing urbanization of New Hanover County, coupled with industrial growth, taxes, changing agricultural practices, and low crop prices have all led to the decline of agriculture as a major economic activi- ty. Another factor leading to the demise of the local small farm is the opportunity to realize a profit through the sale of land to developers. While there are well over an estimated, one hundred allotment farms in the county according to the local Agricultural Stabilization and Con- servation office, the'local Agricultural Extension Service estimates there to be no more than ten persons in the county who make their entire living by farming. The Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation office concurs with this estimate. There are no indicators showing a trend reversal as to the future of agriculture in the county; however, national factors such as scarce energy and the close proximity of New Hanover County to lucrative eastern markets may produce an up-swing in the agricultural sector. B. MANUFACTURING 1) Hisitorical Perspective New Hanover County's manufacturing was long based on the forest and aWilmington-New Hanover Planning Department, "An Input-Output Analysis of the Wilmington SMSA Economy." 26 farm products of its hinterland -- naval stores, lumber, cotton -- which received minimum processing before being exported for secondary processing outside the area. Fertilizer materials were imported into the Wilmington area and processed for use in the rural hinterland. During the two world wars, shipbuilding boomed but subsided when combat ceased. After World War II, manufacturing expanded in textiles, apparel, food, and steam boiler products but accounted for only a small portion o-f the economic base. As shown in Table 12, only twelve new firms began production in New Hanover County over the thirteen year period from 1954 through 1967. However, these firms initiated a significant change in the structure of the local manufacturing industry. In 1963, the value added by manufacturing (value of finished products minus cost of production) began to rise after remaining relatively unchanged during the previous ten years. In 1965 employment in industries producing durable goods began to increase rapidly as new plants opened and established plants expanded their production. Over the-next seven years, employment in durable goods grew at a much faster rate than employment inthe non-durable,manufacturers (see Figure 10). Within the durable category, fabricated metals grew the fastest and by 1972 was the dominant industry, employing nearly 2,900 workers. Among the larger manufacturing firms in New Hanover County are Babcock and Wilcox Company, Corning Glass Works, General Electric Company, Hercules Incorporated, The Singer Company and Timme Corporation. The importance of manufacturing employment can be clarified by grouping industries into generalized classifications that point out developing trends and the impact of the trends on the local economy. Manufacturing in New Hanover County and the southeast in general can be grouped into three classifications -- traditional, new-typ , and locally-oriented industries. Traditional industries (textiles, apparel, and lumber) historically have been the dominant type of manufacturing in the southeast The new-type industries (chemicals, fabricated metals, and machinery) are activities which until recently accounted for only a small fraction of the total manufacturing employment. Locally oriented industries (food, printing, stone, clay, glass and miscellaneous) are manufacturers producing goods which have predominantly local markets. The distribution and change in manufacturing employment by industry type is shown in Table 13. Employment trends for these three generalized classifications are shown in Figure 11. 2 Traditional Industries For several decades, manufacturing employment in New Hanover County was concentrated in the traditional industry category, mainly in textiles and apparel. From 1940 through the mid-1960's these industries employed over 50 percent of the production workers. After peaking in 1966, employment in this category leveled off, then began to decline. This resulted not from production cutbacks but from increased mechanization and improved technology. Through modernization, Output per worker has increased to a point where it is now possible for the textile and apparel industries to increase production while cutting back their labor force. -2-7- TABLE 12 NUMBER OF MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS AND VALUE ADDED WILMINGTON., NEW HANOVER COUNTY, THE WILMINGTON SMSA, AND NORTH CAROLINA 1954-1972 1954 1�758 1963 1967 1972 .North Carolina Establishments 6,645 7,289 7,784 8,266 8,578 Value Added by Manufacturing 2,210,463 3,095,677 4,566,547 6,606,50.0 11,023,100 Capital Expenditures 129,622 168,612 314,428 664,600 989,400 SMSA Establishments 131 141 133 156 150 Value Added NJ by Manufacturing 28P367 29,970 43,263 85,700 481,200 00 Capital Expenditures 1 594 1,356 16,710 50,800 120,700 New Hanover County Establishments 101 106 106 113 122 Value Added by Manufacturing 25,820 24,724 36,896 80,300 473,700 Capital Expenditures IP405 IpO13 16,084 50,500 120,300 Wilmington Establishments 74 71 70 76 Data Not Value Added Available by Manufacturing 20,912 13,988 26,016 52,900 Capital Expenditures 19184 810 1,184 (D) Note: Value added by manufacturing and capital expenditures are in thousands of dollars. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosure. Source: Census of Manufacturers, U.S. Bureau of the Census. TABLE 13 NEW HANOVER COUNTY MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT: 1962 and 1972 Number Change 1962-1972 1962 1972 Number Percent Traditional Textiles 1,630 1,360 270) 16.6) Apparel 1,530 1,590 60 3.9 Lumber and Wood 840 800 40) 4.8) Sub Total 4,000 3,750 250 6.3) New Type Fabricated Metals 690 2,890 2,200 318.8 Machinery 50 500 450 900.0 Chemicals 510 1,110 600 117.6 Sub Total 1,250 4,500 3,250 260.0 Locally-Oriented Food 710 970 260 36.6 Printing 230 310 80 34.8 Stone, Clay, Glass 110 280 170 154.5 Miscellaneous 100 350 250 250.0 Sub Total 1,150 1,9ro 760 66.1 Total All Industries 6,400 10,160 3,760 58.8 Source: Annual Average Work Force Estimates 1962-1972, Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. FIGURE 10 MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT New Hanover County- 1962-1972 6P00 - 6,000 E 5,000- -5,000 M P Non-durable L 4,000- -4,000 0 Y M 3,000- -3,000 E N T 2,000- -2,000 Durable 1,000- - 1,000 '70 1 1962 19 9T2 YEAR SOURCE: Annual average work force estimates 1962 -1972. Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. FIGURE 11 MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT New Hanover County-- 1962- 1972 6,000- 6,000 E 5,000- -5,000 M -^-,,Traditional Industry 0 k P oo L 4,000- -4,000 0 Y M 3,000- -3,000 E N T Now-Type Industry 2,000- 2,000 1,000- Locally Oriented Industry _17-- 1,000 1962 1965 1972 YEAR SOURCE: Annual average work force estimates 1962-1972 Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. The traditional industries have historically employed semi-skilled and unskilled workers and hence have been the low income producers. Although modernization has added higher paying skilled jobs, this industry category is still characterized by unskilled jobs and low wages. In 1972 the.tradi- tional industries employed nearly 37 percent of the manufacturing workers in New Hanover County, but produced less than 26 percent of the total manufacturing payroll. As shown in Table 14, the average weekly wages for workers in textile and apparel plants were $118 and $84, respectively, as compared to an average of $127 for all manufacturing workers. However, wages paid by these industries in New Hanover County were roughly the same as the state average. 3) New-Type Industries During the 1960's the structure of manufacturing in New Hanover County changed significantly and in doing so made a significant impact on the total economy. In the mid-1960's new-type industry began to expand. New plants were constructed and established firms began expanding their production. Over the seven year period from 1966 to 1972 employment in the new-type industries increased from 1,860 to 4,500, a gain of 142 percent. During this period the fabricated metal industry nearly tripled its employ- ment while the chemical industry increased by more than 54 percent. Employ- ment in the machinery industry grew fourfold; however, it still accounted for only 10 percent of the total labor force working in the.new industry category. Among the larger manufacturing firms included in the new-type indus- tries are Babcock and Wilcox, Corning Glass Works, General Electric and The Singer Company. The rapid growth in the new-type industries is significant not only in the number of new jobs created, but more importantly in the amount of money injected into the local economy as a result of higher wages. These industries are highly productive firms employing professional, skilled and semi-skilled workers. In 1972 the weekly wage for workers in the new-type industries averaged $181, as compared to $100 and $133 for the traditional and locally-oriented categories. The fabricated metal industries, in addition to being the largest employer, also paid the highest average wage -- $195 per week. As indicated in Table 16, this pay rate was substan- tially higher than the average for any industrial group in the state. The new-type industries, with more mechanized production, have also had a profound effect on the productivity of the factory worker. Produc- tivity per worker (value added in manufacturing less pay per employee) is a good measure of the quality of an area's manufacturing. During the decade preceeding development of the new-type Endustries, productivity per worker in New Hanover County remained virtually unchanged while-the state average increased by more than 100 percent. With the addition of the new industries, productivity per employer improved substantially to surpass the state average in 1967 In four years, productivity in the county industries increased by over 109 percent to $9,081 per production worker. Continued development of the new-type industries with their high- valued products resulted in a considerable increase in productivity between TABLE 4 AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES IN MANUFACTURING NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND NORTH CAROLINA: 1972 lNew Hanover County North Carolina Traditional Textiles $118.83 $118.38 Apparel 84.08 83.87 Lumber and Wood 99.84 120.18 Traditional Average 100.05 112.91 New-Type Lj Fabricated Metals 194.51 155.47 Machinery 144.84 165.20 Chemicals 164.82 174.47 New-Type Average 181.16 166.24 Locally - Oriented Food 120.60 124.14 Printing 132.25 143.06 Stone, Clay, Glass 136.01 137.41 Miscellaneous 157.10 143.12 Locally-Oriented Average 132.70 134.26 Average All Industries $142.23 $127.44 1967 and 1972. According to the 1972 Census of Manufacturers, produc- tivity in New Hanover County had increased to $47,600 per production worker -- nearly four times the state average. This high value is due to the concentration of specialized manufacturers in New Hanover County which produce high-valued products. Table 15 contrasts the productivity of manu- facturing workers for Wilmington@areas and the state. TABLE 15 Productivity of Manufacturing Workers: 1963, 1967, and 1972 Dollar Output Per Production Worker Percen Change Area 1967 1972 1963-1967 1967-1972 North Carolina 6339 8174 12,553 28.9 53.6 Wilmington SMSA1 4854 9138 46,678 88.3 411.0 New Hanover County 4349 9081 47,609 109.0 424.0 Wilmington 1 3968 9487 25,550 139.0 169.3 1. Wilmington Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) includes Brunswick and New Hanover County. Source: Census of Manufacturers, U.S. Bureau of the Census In addition to the new industries which have located in New Hanover County, a number of new-type industries have also located in Brunswick County. Recently constructed chemical and fabricated metal plants are major employers of manufacturing workers in Brunswick County. These industries are important to the economy of New Hanover County because a significant portion of,the workers attracted into the area by these industries established their residences in New Hanover County; consequently, a sizeable portion of the payrolls of these companies is interjected into the economy of New Hanover County. 4) Locally.Oriented Manufacturing Historically, New Hanover County has had a number of industrial firms which manufactures products primarily for the local market. These locally oriented manufacturers include food processing; printing and publishing; stone, clay and glass industries; and a variety of unclassified industries. .The perishable nature of most food products limits the time, and hence, distance between production and consumption. Consequently, most food processors operate wi .thin the local market. However, there are a few food processing firms that market products outside the local economy. Bakery, beverage, and dairy products are the major food items produced for local consumption. Due to the weight and bulkiness of their products, most stone, clay and glass industries are locally oriented. The transportation cost incurred in handling their products limits exporting them for any great distance. One exception to this is cement manufacturing which does export large quantities of its product. The major locally oriented producers included in this class are concrete, sand and gravel firms, all of which exist as support elements for the construction industry. The printing and publishing sector includes commercial printing and newspaper publishing. Commercial printing firms take a semi-finfshed product produced by other local industries (business, government agencies, and manufacturers) and produce a finished item for use by these industries. Thus commercial printing is a service oriented manufacturer and is linked directly to other segments of the local economy. Newspapers to a large extent are also service oriented in that they function as an information media for the county and surrounding area. However, from an economic point of view newspapers function as an advertising media which.is dependent on other local businesses. Newspapers are considered as manufacturing industries since they produce an item for sale. In general, production in the locally oriented manufacturing category is linked,closely with production in other economic activities. Similarly, employment in this type manufacturing is a function of employment in other sectors of the local economy. Over the ten year period from 1962 to 1972, employment in local manufacturing grew in direct proportion to the total county employment and maintained a constant share (four percent) of the total. Employment in food processing maintained a relatively stable growth rate in response to increased demands by the population. Employment in printing and the stone, clay and glass industries fluctuated with employment changes in the industries to which they are linked. Although locally oriented manufacturers employ relatively few workers in comparison to other manufacturers, they are important as an income producer. In 1972, wages in this category averaged significantly higher than in the traditional category but were well below the average for new-type industries (Refer to Table 14). Food processing paid the lowest average wage while the miscellaneous industries is due to high paying jobs in a number of small but highly skilled industries. -In 1972, locally oriented manufacturing generated approximately $13.2 million in income for workers in New Hanover County. 3.4 C. CONSTRUCTION During the past decade, the construction industry has been a major element of the local economy. An accelerated rate of construction has inter- .jected money into several associated industries including finance, real estate, building material dealers and a variety of retail businesses which market hardware and household products. The manpower requirements have pro- vided employment for a significant portion of the'local labor force, both skilled and unskilled -- nearly 6 percent in 1972. A review of the construction industry indicates not only its economic importance but also reveals the changing social and economic characteristics of the residents. The recent boom in construction is mainly a direct result of the changing social and economic desires of the civilian household. The major factors impacting construction trends during the past decade include: 1. A growing population resulting from natural increase and immigration. 2. An abnormally high rate of family formation. 3. Expanding employment opportunities with higher wages. 4. The price of housing relative to the purchaser's ability to pay- 5. The desire of inter-city dwellers to move to the suburbs. 6. The availability of developable land and public utilities. a According to records of the city and county Building Inspectors nearly 11,300 dwelling units were constructed in New Hanover County during the period from 1966 through 1973 with 54 percent being built in the city. (See Table 16). The unit mix for the two reporting areas is substantially different. For the eight year period residential construction in Wilmington totaled 6,097 units of which 73 percent were multifamily units. Within the unin-, corporated county area only eight percent of the toal units were in multi- family structures. The concentration of multifamily units inside the city is due primarily to the lack of adequate water and sewer utilities to handle demands of high density developments in the unincorporated areas. The rapid increase in apartment construction reflects efforts to meet the demand for housing by young married couples, persons whose income will not support purchasing a home, the growing number of one person households, and college students. aThe County Building Inspector reports permits for the county area excluding the areas of the City of Wilmington and Wrightsville, Carolina and Kure Beaches. TABLE 16 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION: 1966-1973 Jurisdiction Number of Units Total 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1966-1973 Wilmington Single Family 135 189 190 129 437 369 192 35 1,676 Multi-Family 78 433 302 515 411 314 1,171 1,197 4,421 Total 213 622 492 644 848 683 1,363 1,132 6,097 Unincorporated New Hanover County Single Family 230 365 567 477 701 752 866 830 4,788 Multi-Family 2 2 10 20 66 32 269 401 Total 232 365 569 487 721 818 898 1,099 5,189 t Total Planning Area Single Family 365 554 757 606 1,138 1,121 1,058 865 6,464 Multi-Family 80 433 304 525 431 380 1,203 1,466 4,822 Total 445 987 1,061 1,131 1,569 1,501 2,261 2,331 11,286 L Source: Building Inspection Departments, Wilmington and New Hanover County. The predominance of single family construction in the unincorporated area is primarily a result of the desire to move to the suburbs and the availability of developable land outside the city. Avoidance of city taxation is another factor influencing home ownership outside the Wilmington city limits.a Table 17 illustrates trends in the value of new construction in the two reporting areas. These statistics are estimated cost of materials and labor reported on the building permits. These data have been adjusted by the "Engineering News-Record" construction cost index to permit a valid comparison of values over the eight year period. The cost of land is not included in these values; hence, they do not reflect selling prices. aProperty in the unincorporated area of the county is only taxed at county rates, while property in the city is taxed by both the city and the county. TABLE 17 VALUE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION AUTHORIZED BY BUILDING PERMITS: 1966-1973 (In 1967 Dollars) 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 City of Wilmington Residential $ 3,870,837 $ 6,852,873 $ 5,765,429 $ 5,963,630 $ 8,703,230 $ 8,386,158 $ 4,580,035 $ 8,054,396 Commercial 2,809,9180 6,032,693 4,431,551 6,127,296 2,213,340 .2,812,709 4,759,716 3,375,044 Industrial 2,029,809 402,008 1,261,726 1,618,697 283,822 609,865 1,057,346 157,410 Institutional 1,537,258 25,500 477,765 530,519 2,455,471 654,850 192,806 659,392 Total $10,247,884 $13,313,074 $11,936,471 $14,240,142 $13,655,863 $12,463,582 $10,589,903 $12,246,242 co Unincorporated New Hanover County Residential $ 4,078,650 '$ 6,267,571 $ 8,670,31-5 $ 6,884,171 $ 9,908,244 $10,271,410 $12,049,406 $10,899,459 Commercial 184,647 216,754 211,054 772,093 225,906 530,122 428,590 368,305 Industrial 38,065 5,407,774 153,660 53,687 1,180,262 505,766 1,836,618 1,245,134 Institutional 362,393 714,984 639,422 693,724 186,750 210,563 283,645 1,773,4291: Total $ 4,663,755 $12,607,083 $ 9,674,511 $ 8,403,675 $11,501,162 $11,517,870 $14,598,259 $14,286,327 Source: Building Inspection Departments, Wilmington and New Hanover County. FIGURE 12 NEW HANOVER COUNTY oe Ia- I? + $ 1, To keY5 so + A )a RETAIL TRADE AREA ena'sville 12 eulwill U P L I Mot ofix 10 nofix Pichlas 13 cwh-; 4 kc Ingo? o,e H@l 58 2 Arnmoft 11 Del.& G,een,ve'l Catherine Lake attend Te they 11 + Jackso 10 N BLA EN cypress S ace :reek 53 city I 0 N K 7 4 Pend-ea wMa6\ M. fe Hill 41 1 Kerr Ij 44moI L wl he Lumberton + 7 2E@uxhef lo@n FO E 16 urvis I?Wh,@- f1fif 50 Cann ailjorj@@ "" @ @V I 1@iL 1A . ..... 13IIl "Ia 74 19 5w Atkinson Ho Ridf C1.1ito, J. % Z@f I c v 4 111k 1 3 in carvers C ... i ROC4 Poirill P Baird 21 1 Mon f-fe'- 13 0, Del until 87 t. Sort C, BA-wilf I I SMpstea + I Arj@ w11 rvillf i-4 1 Castle New Topsail Be Lh, Vie fs t0f W*Cch.sw , 00110@ it 1w call Alctme He- Topsail 1.111 41 411-11 Cello Go,do isboto St AST feeman Dtw , Old Topsail 1.1.1 2 U35*0 Ica- 5M.'A hoemix A 0 Rich 1.111 U M S I I@". 11 0 h I +?a I Maso. Inlet M 4" CIO,# 701 1 74 ,-Aw,. c,,d_, 16 z fightsville, Basch "14, . " -on "I dr,sy 5 Town Sish 13 creek k" Is M III. ow Doc 0", 1, ;ran H.II kin& 211 Gr@ Sri 1 177 B R U S 33 S lain Ash 0"S. Gai'vants F,,,y tolls Bolivia 10 MW C-d-, A4-6- Sf. P*. Boiling Carolina Beach Sol Ayno, Asybuto I P"Wly 904 j3o 11 Sam', Lakes 110fook j - - - - ----- Lwgcod .. . . ........ .4 Kure Beach coof Saring iyphif ith271 7 fi il'issettowo 11 Statiolt I kFl. Fqh@ I so Long% sunset3 Ia 130 Harbor3 9 S side 104 4@ W C-mcak@ Inlet 4 Ularr"'o, l4b I ocean we'llw'. Be., Is C11"lin I SMITH s. Beach onwa Z4 CAII 'IAN Chetty Crave Beath N-lon"ll, "do Ocean Drive Reath IGMTHOUSS Is, oo siol restem Beach 011 17 Myrtle Beach D. RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE Wilmington has long functioned as the commercial center of south- eastern North Carolina. Expansion of manufacturing employment, popula- tion growth, and increased wages have had a significant impact on the growth of local trade industries -- both retail and wholesale trade. increased employment and rising incomes of the trade area (see Figure 12) population have similarly added demands for new and different goods and services. The county's trade sector is second only to manufacturing in terms of the number of jobs provided'for local residents. In 1972, approximately 20 percent of the total county work force was employed in the trade sector (Refer to Table 9, Work Force Characteristics). 1) R6tail*Trade The retail trade sector of an area's economy is a good indicator of overall area economic growth. Tables 18 and 19 show total sales for Wilmington and New Hanover County by major business group's, adjusted with the Cost of Living Index to 1967 constant dollars for comparative purposes. Total adjusted New Hanover County dollar volume sales in the 1967-72 interval increased by 51 percent, while adjusted city total retail sales increased by 30 percent. Leaders in retail business sales volume were food stores, automotive dealers and general merchandise. These three groups accounted for over 57 percent of total county sales in 1972 (see Figure 13). Wilmington's economic stagnation from 1954 to 1963 may be attributed to a variety of factors including production cutbacks following the Korean War, the recession of the late 1950's, and the closing of the Atlantic Coast Line Railroad regional office in Wilmington. The nationwide trend toward suburban shopping centers is also evident in New Hanover County. Downtown Wilmington retail merchants hope to minimize the effects of outlying centers with the revitalization of a segment of Front Street in a semi-mall motif. Another significant factor affecting commercial sales is that within both the city and county, merchandising efforts are frequently hampered by excessive strip commercializa ti on.aThis practice places unnecessary demands for services on municipalities and dilutes the merchandising potential offered through clustering of sales outlets. aStrip commercial activity exists when properties adjacent to a length or strip of roadway are developed commercially with little or no regard to adjacent commercial activities, and each business functions in disassociation with others along the roadway. 39 TABLE 18 TOTAL RETAIL SALES BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUPS, WILMINGTON: 1963, 1967 and 1972 In 1967 Dollars (000) Percent. hange Type of Retail Business 1963 1967 1972 1963-67a 1967-72 All Retail Businesses 83,822 116,900 152,683 39.5 30.6 Building Materials 1,868 (D) 4,324 NA NA General Merchandise 10,320 18,162 28,608 76.0 57.5 Food Stores 20,097 27,911 35,440 39.8 27.0 Automotive Dealers 19,182 22,077 28,950 15.1 31.1 Gasoline Stations 4,055 7,048 8,736 73.8 24.3 Apparel, Accessory 6,233 6,744 9,588 8.2 42.2 Furniture 3,796 (D) 8,852 NA NA Eating, Drinking Places 3,650 5,567 7,845 52.5 40.9 Drug Stores 3,246 4,659 (D) 43.5 NA Other Retailers 11,375 13,520 (D) 18.9 NA (D) Withheld to avoid.disclosure. Source: Census of Retail Sales, 1963, 1967, and 1972. TABLE 19 TOTAL RETAIL SALES BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUPS, NEW HANOVER'COUNTY: 1963, 1967 and 1972 In 1967 Dollars (000) Percent Change Type of Retail Business 1963 1967 1972 1963-67 1967-72 All Retail Businesses 109,695 131,523 199,106 19.9 51.4 Building Materials 4,614 (D) 15,480 NA NA General Merchandise 14,413 22,106 33,291 53.4 50.6 Food Stores 27,839 30,768 43,093 10.5 40.1 Automotive Dealers 20,069 22,514 38,274 12.2 70.0 Gasoline Stations 7,177 9,242 12,377 28.8 33.9 Apparel, Accessory 7,031 6,902 9,997 -1.8 44.8 Furniture 4,500 5,506 9,757 22.4 77.2 Eating, Drinking Places 6,299 7,874 12,488 25.0 58.6 Drug Stores 4,289 5,023 6,451 17.1 28.4 Other Retailers 13,464 (D) 17,898 NA NA (D) Withheld to avoid disclosure. Source: Census of Retail Sales, 1963, 1967 and 1972. a The growth rate for 1963-1967 is inflated by the inclusion of establishments in the 1967 census which were annexed to the city after the 1963 census. FIGURE 13 RETAIL SALES BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUPS NEW HANOVER COUNTY9 1972 BUILDING OTHER MATERIAL DRUG RETAILERS STORE EATING Ek 3% 10% 7% DRINKING GENERAL PLACES MERCHANDISE 6% FURNITURE 17% 5% APPAREL, 0 5 ACCESORY 6% GASOLINE STATIONS FOOD STORES AUTOMOTIVE DEALERS 22% 19% 2) New HanQygr's.Retail Trade Potential A buying power indexa, which is indicative of an area's retail trade potential, is shown in Table 20. The buying power index includes the three major determinants of market potential -- population, effective buying income, and retail sales. The index represents a modification of the buying power index published by Sales Management Magazine's "Survey of Buying Power" in that Sales Management's index is based on national percentages, whereas the index figures here represent the counties' percent of total state buying power from 1964 through 1973. Of the five counties shown, New Hanover County is second only to Wake County in buying power growth with a rate 13.2% between 1964 through 1973. The county's rising incomes, growing population, and increasing retail sales are acting in concert to create new retail markets and thereby to generate expansion of existing establishments and encourage new establishments. 3) Wholesale Trade Wholesaling encompasses the.activities of merchant wholesalers, manufacturer's sales branches, merchandise brokers and agents, petroleum bulk plants and terminals, and marketers of farm products. Wholesaling is an important facet of the county's economy. According to the latest available county data (1972) the dollar volume of county wholesale trade exceeded the retail trade volume by more than 15 percent. Petroleum and petroleum products comprise a major part of the area's wholesaling activity at over 38 percent of total dollar volume for the Wilmington SMSA in 1972. Table 21 shows wholesale trade sales volume for the city and county adjusted to 1967 constant dollars. E. SERVICE ACTIVITIES Service industries consist of personal services (laundries, beauty and barber shops, photographic studios, etc.); miscellaneous business services (credit bureaus, advertising agencies, business consulting, etc); hotels, m6tels, tourist courts and trailer parks; auto repair and services, miscel- laneous repair services (golf and country clubs, theatrical presentation, etc.). Employment in this sector accounts for approximately one tenth of the total work force participation, dropping slightly between 1962 and 1972, from 10.3 percent to 917 percent., The county has experienced,considerable growth.in service industry sales activity in recent years (see Tables 22 and 23). In the five years between 1967 and 1972 total adjusted county sales increased by 45 percent, with the auto repair, miscellaneous business services, and hotels and motels groups all increasing at relative rates greater than 80 percent. County recreation sales rose almost 70 percent. Personal services lead in total 1972 dollar volume sales, followed by hotels and motels, and miscellaneous business services. aThe buying power index is caluculated by a weighted average giving A weight of 5 to percent of state effective buying income, a weight of 3 to percent of state retail sales, and a weight of 2 to'percent of state population. The formula,is: BPI 5(% EBI) + 3(% Retail Sales + 2(% Population) 10 -4-a -, 30 TABLE 20 BUYING POWER INDEX SELECTED NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES 1964 THROUGH 1973 New Hanover Pitt Durham Wake Buncombe Year County County County County Count 1964 1.74 1.40 2.70 4.66 3.46 1965 1.72 1.39 3.02 4.78 2.99 1966 1.79 1.37 2.94 4.98 3.53 1967' 1.86, 1.38 2.91 4.89 3.52 1968 1.90 1.40 2.86 4.96 3.39 1969 1.85 1.38 2.90 5.22 3.21 1970 1.91 1.41 2.94 5.46 3.07 1971 1.97 1.46 3.00 5.48 3.03 .1972 1.92 1.44 2.98 5.46 3.04 1973 1.97 1.39 2.95 5.52 3.01 % Change 1964-1973 13.2% -0.7% 9.3% 18.5% -13.0% Source: Sales Management Survey of Buying Power, Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. TABLE 21 WHOLESALE TRADE Sales in 1967 Dollars (000) I Percent Change 1963 1967 1972 1963-67 1967-72 New Hanover County $153,310 $170,747 $234,825 11.4 37.5 Wilmington 115,654 $115,192 $157,817 (-0.4) 37.0 Remainder of County $ 37,656 $ 55,555 $ 77,008 47.5 38.6 Source: 19 67 Census of Business: Wholesale Trade 44 TABLE 22 SELECTIVE SERVICES - WILMINGTON TOTAL SALES BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUPS: 1963, 1967 and 1972 In 1967 Dollars (000) Percent Change ,Type of iusiness 1963 1967 1972 1963-67 1967-72 All Services 10,767 15,288 20,494 42.0 34.1 Personal Services 4,841 6,744 6,597 39.3 -2.2 Misc. Business Services 1,669 2,507 4,355 33.4 73.7 Hotels, Motels, Tourist Courts 799 1,680 2,593 110.3 54.3 Auto Repair and Services (D) 1,759 3,209 --- 82.4 Miscellaneous Repair 1,158 1,317 1,500 13.7 13.9 Amusement, Recreation (D) 1,281 2,240 --- 74.9 1 1 1 1 ., I (D) Withheld to avoid disclosure. Source: Census of Selected Services, 1963, 1967, 1972, and.Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. TABLE 23 SELECTIVE SERVICES - NEW HANOVER COUNTY TOTAL SALES BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUPS: i963, 1967 and 1972 In 1967 Dollars (000) Percent Changa Type of Business 1963 1967 1972 1963-67 1967-72 All Services 14,150 19,335 28,094 36.6 45.3 Personal Services 5,423 7,025 7,119 29.5 1.3 Misc. Business Services 1,907 3,098 5,576 62.5 831.0 Hotels, Motels, Tourist Courts 1,879 3,553 6,425 89.1 80.8 Auto Repair and Services 1,742 2,008 3,818 15.3 90.1 Miscellaneous Repair 1,591 1@2802 2,026 13.3 12.4 Amusement, Recreation 1,608 1,849 3,130 15.0 69.3 Source: Census of Selected Services, 1963, 1967, 1972, and Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Bepartment. In part the growth of service activity is attributable to higher incomes enjoyed by county residents and the concomitant demand for more and better services. Population growth, the influence of in-migrants, and the growth of the recreation industry is reflected here, too. Additionally, there is an additive effect in which support of an activity such as theat- rical presentations encourages other entr&peneurs to initiate similar ventures. A large part of the tourism dollar goes into service activities (see Figure 14). While tourism plays an increasingly significant role in the economy of the area, it is difficult to actually quantify its economic impact, and while data sources vary widely on estimates of county tourism revenues, clearly tourism is one of the most significant elements in the service sector. Wilmington is located along the eastern seaboard corridor, and in addi- tion to attracting tourists to the area, it is a stopover point for travelers from other areas who are journeying along the eastern coast. It is esti- mated that one out of every six tourists in the U.S. journeys along the a Atlantic Coast between Florida and Maryland . Recognizing the enormous potential of the county's recreation industry, New Hanover County's economic development program should concentrate on the full development of thi's significant county economic resource. F. TRANSPORTATION Transportation, communication, and utilities employment accounted for almost eight percent of the county's 1972 work force, increasing slightly in relative percentage over the previous decade. Because of the significance of the port as an economic determinant, it is discussed in the following section of this report., The configuration and growth of an area is frequently related to the physical features with which the area is endowed. Development of the Wil- mington areas has been.greatly influenced and shaped by its relationship:to water. Historically, Wilmington functioned as a regional port from its beginning settlement in the 1700's through the nineteenth century. The port served as North Carolina's main point of entry for products required by the state's industries. In 1840 the Wilmington and Weldon Railroad was constructed, linking the port wi 'th North Carolina's agricultural hinterland and increasing access to export markets. Strengthening of the Piedmont rail network, however, coupled with Piedmont industrial growth and the decline of cotton production and forest products as major area exports,eventually led to a decline causing Wilmington to become a regional center of trade and service. aNorth Carolina Travel Survey, Dr. Lewis Copeland, Department of Statistics University of Tennessee. 46 FIGURE 14 DISTRIBUTION OF TRAVEL EXPENDITURES IN NORTH CAROLINA,1973 ADMISSION FEES VEHICLE REPAIRS 4.7% 1.3% RECREATION 6.2% GIFTS/ FOOD SOUVENIRS 28.4% 9.8% M I Sc. 10.4% GAS, OIL, ETC. LODGING 19.8% 19.4% SOURCE: 1973 North Carolina Travel Survey, prepared by Resear ch Triangle Institute of the Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. The rail deemphasis of Wilmington and later development of a north- south highway system through the Piedmont combined to further diminish the importance and increase the isolation of Wilmington. The position of the area as a regional trade and service center has lessened, but the influence of water transport as well as other transportation modes is still strong. 1) Por t of Wilmington Wilmington Harbor is one of two deep water harbors in the state. Principal among local facilities is the North Carolina State Ports Authority (SPA) facilities. The SPA terminal has the capacity to handle containerized cargo, and has open and dry storage warehouses. Adjacent to the State Port are numerous private port facilities, the majority of which are involved with petroleum or chemicals transport. Residual fuel oil and gasoline were the Port of Wilmington's leading tonnage commodities in 1973, altogether constituting 44 percent of total port freight tratfic.a 2) Import-F_xpott Mix As shown in Table 25 the port's import-export tonnage mix has shifted from a position of export dominance in 1954 (6:1) to one of import dominance in 1973 (3.8:1). This change is important to the local economy, because simplifying greatly, exports represent goods which bring dollars into the community while imports represent goods for which dollars are paid and leave the area. Leaders in foreign import tonnage in 1973 were residual fuel oil, which comprises half the total foreign import tonnage volume, and crude petroleum. Leaf tobacco shipments lead foreign exports at 29 percent of total foreign export tonnage. The absence of port linkages with other modes of transportation currently prevents the Port of Wilmington from reaching its full potential. Due to inadequate road linkages with other centers of commerce, particularly the North Carolina Piedmont, the State Port's potential for receiving and distributing goods is limited. 3) Vehicle Registration Vehicle ownership is one indicator of ',economic well-being. As incomes rise there is a propensity for families to acquire additional autos, or for a business to purchase another truc k. Truck and auto ownership for the county is indicated in Table 26, County automobile registration for the period between 1960 and 1970 shows a per capita registration increase from 0.33 to 0.48, or a growth of from one car for every three persons to a car for every two people. Total registration of cars and trucks during the same period rose from 0.38 per capita to 0.56. al,Waterborne Commerce of the United States", Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers, 1973. 48 TAbLh Z4 WILMINGTON HARBOR FREIGHT TONNAGE, SELECTED YEARS, 1960-1973 196Q 1965 1970 1972 .1973 Total Cargo Shipped 5,168,062 4,742,108 6,308,517 8,519,041 9,995,987 Total Foreign 753,999 949,269 2,132,215 3,716,613 4,299,093 Foreign Imports 472,019 754,758 1,914,751 3,540,883 4,083,311 Foreign Exports 281,980 194,511 217,464 175,730 215,782 Total Domestic 4,414,063 3,792,839 4,176,302 4,802,428 5,696,894 Coastwise receipts 2,998,187 2,190,036 2,319,703 2,439,914 2,941 789 Coastwise shipments 31,685 157,846 205,302 108,469 86,489 Internal Inbound 61,630 323,738 242,784 148,536 133,168 Internal Outbound 334,250 364,830 619,610 1,170,250 1,776,800 Through 988,311 756,389 788,903 935,259 758,648 Source: Waterborne Commerce of The United States, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. TABLE 25 WILMINGTON STATE PORT TERMINAL FREIGHT TONNAGE AND MODE OF TRANSPORTATION, SELECTED YEARS, 1955-1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 CARGO Total (in tons) 250,794 352,271. 479,244 1,127,948 1,740,345 Foreign,Imports 35,545 118,510 226,453 532,503 641,519 Foreign Exports 215,249 226,995 163,039 159,766 167,769 Coastwise Inbound -0- 2,566 58,770 259,107 595,917 Coastwise Outbound -0- 4,200 30,982 176,562 335,138 MODE OF TRANSPORTATIOI@' (numberof vehicles) Ships 115 311 417 464 .503 Barges NA NA NA 234 592 Rail Cars 2,888 5,505 5,194 4,916 6,721 Trucks 1,924 6,441 13,912 28,565 42,187 Source: North Carolina State Ports Authority Note: Strike occurred,a ted 196J --- 65_dags, 1965 --- 20 days, 1969---55 days 197 s s lis @ay -- 56 days, 973--- 7 S, 974-- 9 ays. Comparison of vehicle registration since the 1960's has several implications: 1. A sense of economic well-being prevailed in the decade. 2. Truck useage is frequently associated with increased industriali- zation. Hence, the increase signifies the apparent rise of new industry and/or growth of established firms,' and an optimism about the future. 3. Demands for effective roadways to accomodate increased vehicle flow. 4. Need for measures to prevent excessive vehicular noise and activity in residential areas. TABLE 26 ESTIMATED VEHICLE REGISTRATION NEW HANOVER COUNTY Year Automobiles Trucks Total 1960 23,635 3,935 27,570 1961 23,234 4,099 27,333 1962 23,695 4,077 27,772 1963 25,188 4,178 29,366 1964 26,583 4,500 31,083 1965 28,054 4,834 32,888 1966 30,155 5,049 35,204 1967 32,530 5,434 37,964 1968 34,999 6,000 40,999 1969 37,905 5,822 43,727 1970 40,131 6,629 46,760 1971 43,214 7,296 50,510 1972 46,907 8,097 55,004 1973 50,542 9,192 59,734 Source: North Carolina Department of Motor Vehicles. 50 TABLE 27 COMMERCIAL AND PRIVATE FLIGHT ACTIVITY NEW HANOVER COUNTY AIRPORT: 1966-1973 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Flights a 98,784 108,167 113,864 111,542 110,618 100,334 110,814 115,630 Passengersb Enplane 30,982 37,330 44,52.0 49,090 61,847 63,114 68,041 76,045 Deplane 33,586 39,690 45,798 49,460 60,121 60,168 68,1828 76P649 Total 64,568 77,020 90,318 98,550 121,968 123,282 136,869 152,694 Average Daily Activity Flights 271 296 312 306 303 275 304 317 Passengers 177 211 247 270 338 375 418 Source: Manager, New Hanover County Airport. TABLE 28 CARGO TRANSPORTED NEW HANOVER COUNTY AIRPORT, SELECTED YEARS 1965-1973 (In tons) PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1965 1970 1973 1965-1970 1970-1973 Enplaned Air Freight 171.7 892.2 520.8 419.6 -41.6 Air Express 47.5 149.8 120.2 215.4 -19.8 Air Mail 55.5 132.7 87.6 139.1 -34.0 Total 274.7 1,174.7 728.6 327.6 -38.0 Deplaned Air Freight 134.7 .454.7 771.8 237.6 69.7 Air Express 45.5 72.6 62.6 59.6 -13.8 Air Mail 45.4 77.4 55.3 70.5 -28.6. Total 225.6 604.7 889.7 168.0 47.1 Total Cargo 500.3 1,779.4 1,618.3 255.7 9.1 Source: Airport Manager, New Hanover County Airport. aPrivate and commercial flights in and out. bCommercial passengers enplaning and deplaning only. III. POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Most planning decisions are either directly or indirectly based upon population and employment projections and resulting forecasts. Estimates of 'the size of the Planning Area's future population provide a basis for determining future demands for housing, transportation services, various types of land development, and public services and facilities. In addi- tion, the age characteristics.of the future population are important .factors in determining the need for specialized public facilities and services, such as schools, hospitals and parks. It is important to note that, although the terms "projection" and "forecast" are often used interchangeably, the terms actually represent different concepts. A projection generally represents a population size implied by extending past and current growth trends into the future. If the area's future growth mirrors its past, projections are very accurate. Forecasts, on the other hand, are future estimates which are tempered by the planner's assumptions about the future. They go beyond the projections to the extent that factors which cannot be readily quantified are considered, and in-most cases they represent more realistic estimates of future popula- tion than do projections. The purpose of this part of the report is to develop population and employment forecasts for the 1975-2000 period. The basic methodology consists of comparing and synthesizing the population projections found in Part I and the employment projections found in this part of the report. The rationale for.this approach to preparing forecasts is based on two major considerations: 1. The direct relationship between employment growth and population growth. 'The major factor in the decision to migrate is the presence of job opportunities. Therefore, if the number of employment oppor- tunities is not expanding, an area will not normally experience population growth. 2. The quality of the data. In developing the employment and popula- tion projections for New Hanover County, the quality of the trend data on population was felt to be superior to that on employment. Therefore, the employment and population projections have been reconciled in the forecasts, but much greater weight has been given to the reliability of the population projections. A. PROJECTIONS 1) Population A range of three population projections based on the "cohort-survival" technique have been included in Part I of this report (page 40). Each of these projections includes different assumptions.concerning the three popula- tion growth variable births, deaths, and migration. They were prepared, 52 however, without any explicit consideration of the economic growth trends in the Planning Area.a The population projections for New Hanover County are summarized in Table 29. TABLE 29 SUMMARY OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS -- 1980-2000 Population Projections Year Low Moderate High 1980 94,038 97,546 101,317 1990 107,613 116,740 124,608 2000 122,829 140,283 151,468 2) Employment Projections of both total county resident population and employment are shown in Table 30. These projections are based on a "least-squares" analysis of employment data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. In essence, the "least-squares" technique is a straight-line projection of the county's past growth trends into the future. It should be noted that these projections tend to be conservative. 3) Comparison of Population and Employment Projections In order to compare the employment and population projections, the@ county's projected employment has been converted to an implied population level. As discussed previously, total employment and -total population Are directly related, and by applying conversion factors which account for labor force participation, it is possible to approximate the total popula- tion required for a given level of employment. As discussed in the "Labor Profile" section of this report a partici- pation rate of 42.5 to '45.0 can be expected for New Hanover County. There- fore, participation rates of 42.5, 43.75, and 45.0 have been used to convert projected employment to population for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. TABLE 30 CONVERSION OF EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO POPULATION: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Projected Conversion Projected Year Employment Factor Population 1980 38,750 .4250 91,176 1990 44,750 .4375 102,286 2000 48,900 .4500 108,667 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. aA detailed explanation of the assumptions used in deriving these projections is found on page 40. 3 To facilitate comparison, the population projections in Table 30, together with the three cohort-survival population projections have been plotted in Figure 15. This comparison reveals a wide disparity between the four sets of projections, with projection based on employment being the most conservative. B. FORECASTS In developing forecasts of New Hanover County's population and employment, quality of data is a major consideration. The projection, either population or employment, which-utilizes data best reflecting the area's growth should be the basis for making forecasts of future population and employment. As discussed in Part I, the high "cohort- survival" population projection is highly reliable, because not only does the projection technique treat all three growth variables--births, deaths, and migration--it also utilizes up-to-date data (1974) on these variables. In contrast, the employment projections are based on a "straightline" technique using data for the 1930 to 1970 period. In comparison, the employment projections appear to be much less reliable than the "high" population projection; therefore, the "high" projection has been selected as the population forecast for New Hanover County. Using participation rates and adjusting for commutation, the popula- tion forecast has been used to derive an employment forecast. The fol-, lowing assumptions are inherent in this process: 1. Survival and birth rates remain the same as the 1970-73 period. 2. Migration increases during the 1970's then declines moderately. 3. Labor force participation rates increase for nonwhite males and females of all races.. 4. Unemployment will stabilize at five percent. 5. Net commuting as a percent of total workforce will increase slightly in the 1970's then decline slightly. These forecasts are shown in Table al. In addition to the forecasts of total employment, it has been necessary to allocate total employment to the.major industrial sectors. These alloca- tions are.very important in many planning decisions such as space allocation for industrial uses. The allocations which are found in Table 32 have been based on each industry's projected share of total employment as determined by a "least-squares" projection of total employment for'each industrial sector. Age, sex, and race breakdowns for the population forecast are found in the Appendix to Part I. 54 FIGURE 15 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS 170,000 COHORT SURVIVAL PROJECTIONS HIGH 150,000- MODERATE LOW 0 0 0 0 0 0 EMPLOYMENT BASED POPULATION PROJECTION 0 p U 130,000- L A T N 110,000- 0a0000000000 600 000000 0 00 -,.-00000 0 0 0 0 0 00 90,000- 0000 1980 1990 2000 YEAR TABLE 31 POPULATION AND RESIDENT LABOR FORCE FORECAST NEW HANOVER COUNTY: 1970-2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Population 82,996 101,300 124,600 151,000 Percent in Labor Force 43.4 44.5 45.9 47.4 Labor Force 36,020 45,079 57,400 71,600 Percent Unemployed 3.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 Residents Employed 34,780 42,845 54,500 68,000 TABLE 32 SECTOR WORK FORCE EMPLOYMENT FORECASTa NEW HANOVER COUNTY: 1970-2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Total 38,210 47,500 60,500 73,950 Manufacture 9,830 12,400 16,100 19,400 Non-Manufacture 22,520 29,250 37,800 47,40 Construction 2,110 2,700 3,250 3,900 Transportation, Communication, Utilities 2,890 3,750 5,000 6,350 Trade 7,360 9,900 13,450 17,350 Fire 1,220 1,700 2,090 2,600 Service 4,190 5,200 6,700 8,400 Government 4,640 5,800 7,070 8,600 Other Non-Manufacture 110 200 265 325 Other Non-Agriculture 5,390 5,500 6,300 6,800 Agriculture 470 350 300 300 aWork force refers to the total number of workers employed in the county; Work force includes residents employed in the county and in-commuters. 56 newWnover comprebensive planning prognin cm Q) alRaksjs of e TD E HM 0- -j@i IMIPPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION .......................................... I II. OVERVIEW OF PLANNING AREA LAND USE ............. o o o......... 3 A. PLANNING AREA DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ......... 3 B. ANNEXATION- ................. o ......... - ...... - ......... 4 III. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING LAND USE ................. o .................. 5 A. RESIDENTIAL... - ................................. --o-o- 5 1. Summary of Residential Land Use Acreage ................... 5 2. Residential Density Patterns ...... ....................... 7 3. Housing Stock Composition ................... o ............ 7 4. Residential Land Use Problems ............................ 7 B. COMMERCIAL ......................................... o....0 .... 13 1. Summary of Commercial Land Use Acreage... ................... 13 2. Commercial Land Use Problems... ...... o .......... o........ 13 C. INDUSTRIAL .................. ...... o ... 16 1. Summary of Existing Industrial Land Use Acreage ..... .... 16 2. Industrial Land Use Problems.... .... oo- ....... o..... - 17 D. TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, AND UTILITIES ................. 19 E. PARKS,AND RECREATION ........................ o ........ o 19 F. OFFICE AND INSTITUTIONAL ...... o................ o...... 0 20 G. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY ..................................... 20 IV. summARY .......................... o ... o...... o ..................... 22 A. MAJOR LAND USE ISSUES- .................. -.0 ............... 22 B. ROLE OF LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT CONTROL ORDINANCES .....o .... 23 List of Maps Map I Developed Areas in Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area Map 2 Wilmington Annexations Map 3 Existing Land Use Wilmington Urbanizing Area Map 4 Existing Land Use Rural Areas of Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area Map 5 Residential Development Densities Map 6 Neighborhoods Threatened by Incompatible Land Uses Map 7 Residential Subdivisions Experiencing Chronic Septic Tank Problems I. INTRODUCTION The characteristics and distribution of existing developed land in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area demand careful attention in the land use planning process, because future development mu&t be built on this existing base. The analysis and interpretation of existing land use provides the funda- mental information which will be used to identify existing land use problems, to estimate future land needs, and to predict future development trends. In short, the characteristics of existing land uses may be considered the key shapers of public policies concerning the future use of the Planning Area's land resources. Thus, the purpose of this report is to outline the basic information on current land utilization which is required for developing policie's for future land use. It addresses both the amount of land committed to various uses and the problems resulting from the location of existing uses and the manner in which they are developed. The analysis is based on a survey of the Planning Area's land uses conducted in the summer of 1973 and updated in the summer of 1975. As a result of this survey, the area's developed land has been placed in one of the following clas- sifications: 1. Residential 2. Commercial 3. Industrial 4. Transportation, Communications, and Utilities 5. Office and Institutional 6. Public and Private Recreational In addition, agriculture and commercial forestry activities, which may not be considered "developed" land uses, have been identified and analyzed. In the analysis of land use problems, residential, commercial, and indus- trial uses have been treated in the greatest detail. Because they occupy the largest land area, are the most widely distributed, and have the highest potential Lj for conflict with other uses, these major land use categories pose the greatest problems.for the Planning Area. II. OVERVIEW OF PLANNING AREA LAND USE A. PLANNING AREA DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Map I shows the location of developed areas in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area for the years 1956, 1966, and 1975. Over time, development has occurred primarily in eastward and southward directions. This development configuration was strongly influenced by three factors: (1) the Cape Fear River which acts as a barrier to development in the west; (2) the attraction of the beaches and sounds in the east; and (3) Smith Creek which acts as a barrier to the north of the city. Relatively little development has occurred across the Cape Fear River in Brunswick County, and the area north of Smith Creek, until recently, has remained mostly agricultural. Recent development north of Wilmington has been primarily industrial, accompanied by relatively small, compact, residential subdivisions. One reason for this trend may be that the Planning Area's significant agriculture opera- tions are concentrated in the north and, therefore, less land has been avail- able for development. The eastward and southward development pattern has been almost entirely residential with accompanying trade and service activities. Transportation corridors, as in most urban areas, have exerted, a strong influence on development patterns in New Hanover County. Major thoroughfare construction has given access to formerly inaccessible land, and, therefore, has promoted land subdivision and development. N.C. Highway 132 illustrates this pattern. Since the construction of this highway in the early 1960's, de- velopment has occurred in an almost continuous strip from Kings Grant Subdivi- sion in the north to the Lansdowne Subdivision in the south. From an overall view, development in New Hanover County exhibits.some of the classic characteristics of urban sprawl conditions which may be defined as a land development pattern where scattered residential, commercial, and GULF OF ALASKA BOTTOMFISH AND SHELLFISH RESOURCES by Miles S. Alton Resource Assessment and Conservation Engineering Division Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle, Washington 98112 March 1981 US Department Of C0MMERCE NOAA Coastal Services Center Library 2234 South Hobson Avenue Charleston, SC 29405-2413 CONTENTS Page Introduction ................................ .......................... 1 Physical Setting................................................... 2 Fisheries................................... 6 Regulations......................... 9 Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976.......... 9 State of Alaska ..................... 11 U.S. Fisheries ..................................11 Dungeness Crab Fishery......................11 King Crab Fishery ..........................13 Snow (Tanner) Crab Fishery..................15 Shrimp Fishery..............................17 Bottomfish Fisheries........................20 North American Pacific Halibut Fishery ..........22 Foreign Fisheries.................................24 Trawl Fisheries.............................24 Setline Fishery.............................29 Characteristics of Fishery Resources....................35 Life History......................................35 Commercial Crabs............................35 Shrimp.....................................37 Bottomfish..................................37 Distribution of Resources.........................41 Pandalid Shrimp.............................43 Shelf Crab, Rock Sole, and Sculpins..........43 Cod and Flounders ...........................43 Pollock and Flathead Sole....................44 Dover Sole and Rex Sole......................46 Rockfish (Sebastes) Group....................47 Bathyal Group................................48 Acknowledgments...........................................49 References................................................49 Figures 1. Gulf of Alaska showing key geographical locations and bathymetry.....4 2. Typical temperature conditions in a vertical section of water column above the continental shelf and upper slope southeast of Kodiak Island during winter and summer...............................5 5 3. Domestic harvest of shrimp and crab in the Gulf of Alaska (1960-79)............................................................6 4o Annual catch of Gulf of Alaska bottomfish by foreign fisheries (1960-79)............................................................6 5o Annual U.S. harvest of all bottomfish compared to that of Pacific halibut for the Gulf of Alaska.......................................8 6. U.So annual landings of Dungeness crab in the Gulf of Alaska, showing the principal harvesting method...............................12 7. Average annual U.S. catch of crab by species for 1976-78, by region, in the Gulf of Alaska........................................13 i 1'" 2 CITY OF WI CORPORATE Ll 1915-19 En \_N N:\ 'N' El X X XV V \Xj \\"t\x x :I LUr NA NIN xN "17 jH__l A 11- 1 liq 11. L '.L. Page 28. Increase in fecundity with length of fish for commercially important bottomfish............................................... 38 29. Growth of Pacific halibut and other important bottomfish of the Gulf of Alaska ...................................................39 30. Estimated decline in a year class of Pacific halibut, rock sole, and walleye pollock from age 3 and above because of natural mortalityo This is a generalized view for species comparison and assumes a constant annual rate of mortality.................. 41 31. Generalized scheme of the relative density with depth of the principal bottomfish and crabs occurring on the continental shelf and slope south of Kodiak Islando Distribution is of the adults of these species during the summery............................. 42 32. Availability of Pacific cod and Atka mackerel during NMFS 1978 winter trawling survey in the Kodiak Island region, using the NoAA research vessel Miller Freeman............................... 44 33. Apparent density of rock sole and sculpins in various regions of the Gulf of Alaska based on NMFS bottom trawl surveys (1973-76) at depths of 4 m and less................................. 45 34. Apparent density of Pacific cod and turbot in various regions of the Gulf of Alaska based on NMFS bottom trawl surveys (1973-78) at depths of 4 m and............................................ 46 35. Apparent density of walleye pollock and flathead sole in various regions of the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea as suggested from NMFS bottom trawl surveys (1973-78) at depths of 4 m and less ............................................. 47 Tables l. Foreign and domestic harvest of bottomfish from the Gulf of Alaska in 1978-79............................................................. 1 2. Principal species of bottomfish, crab, and shrimp of commercial importance and species of minor importance in the Gulf of Alaska........................................................................ 3 3. Commercial landings of crab, shrimp, and bottomfish by U.S. vessels operating in the Gulf of Alaska, 196-79.............................. 7 4. Estimated potential yields of Gulf of Alaska bottomfish stocks (excluding Pacific halibut) and actual yields obtained in 1979 by foreign fisheries......................................................... 1 5. Number and type of vessels in the foreign fisheries on Gulf of Alaska bottomfish in 1978.................................................. 27 Conversion table - inside back cover Maps 3 and 4 Existing Land Use Wilmington urbanizing area and rural areas of the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area are on display in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. These maps will be included in the final revision of the report. TABLE 13 SUMMARY OF EXISTING LAND USE 1975 LAND USE CATEGORIES CITY OF WILMINGTON UNINCORPORATED NEW HANOVER COUNTY TOTAL PLANNING AREA Land Percent Percent of Land Percent Percent of Land Percent Percent of Use In of Total' Developed Use In of Total Developed Use In of Total Developed Acres Land Land Acres Land Land Acres Land Land Residential 4,747 33.1 51.1 6,210 5.2 39.6 10,957 8.3 43.9 Trade 1,064 7.4 11.5 159 0.1 1.0 1,223 0.9 4.9 Office and Institutional 623 4.3 6.7 145 0.1 0.9 768 0.5 3.1 Industrial 153 1.1 1.6 5,470 4.6 34.9 5,623 4.2 22.5 Transportation, Communi- cation, Utilities 2,019 14.1 21'. 8 2,964 2.5 18.9 4,983 3.8 20.0 Parks and Recreation 673 4.7 7.3 735 0.6 4.7 1,408 1.1 5.6 Total Developed Land 9,279 64.7 100.0 15,683 13.3 100.0 24,962 18.8 100.0 Agriculture and Forestry 16,100 13.6 16,100 12.2 Water and Wetland 372 2.6 31,268 26.5 31,640 23.9 Vacant 4,685 32.7 55,100 46.6 59,785 45.1 -TOTAL 14-, 3 3 6 lO0._O 118,151 -100.0 132,487 100.0 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department 2. Residential Density Patterns Using five dens_ity levels (high, moderate, and low density urban, suburban, and rural) the various types of residential development are illus- trated in Map 5. An analysis of this map reveals three important factors: 1. Public housing comprises half of the total number of high density urban area (greater than 6 dwelling units per gross acre) within the City of Wilmington. 2. Of the 15 low density urban areas (2 to 4 dwelling units per gross acre) outsidethe City, only one is serviced by a central sewer system. 3. A "sprawling" development pattern.has developed along major transportation corridors. Areas of suburban and urban residential densities are spotted throughout most of the Planning Area. 3. Housing Stock Composition Of the 29,069 year-round housing units in New Hanover County in 1970, 69.9 percent were single family units, 10.6 percent were duplexes, 13.3 percent were apartments, and 6.3 percent were mobile homes or trailers. Between the 1970 census and January 1, 1975, new residential building per- mits were issued in the Planning Area for 4,430 single family units, 2,551 multi- family units, and 2,323 mobile homes. Of this total of 9,304 authorized new units, 47.6 percent were single family units, 27.4 percent were multi-family units, and 25 percent were mobile homes. Only one apartment complex, Governours Square, was located outside the City of Wilmington. The remaining multi-family units authorized outside the City were duplexes. All new authorizations for mobile homes were outside the City during this four-year period. 4. Residential Land Use Problems a. Neighborhood Decline it has been observed that the establishment of incompatible land uses such as commercial activities, industries, and offices in residential areas often 7 Jo 0 MAP 5 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT DENSITY 1975 m: LEGEND URBAN SUBURBAN EJ E RURAL l NO DEVELOPMENT F] NOTE: This map generalized from more detailed version on file in Wilmington- Now Hanover Planning Department office. NEW HANOVER COUNTY WILMINGTON -NEW HANOVER PLANNING COMMISSION triggers a definite process of neighborhood decline. This process has several distinct steps, as described below, but almost invariably its end product is a dilapidated neighborhood, a loss of essential housing, and.a decline in tax revenues: 1. The establishment of incompatible uses (primarily office, commercial, and industrial uses) within a viable residen- tial neighborhood brings with it nuisance factors such as noise, traffic congestion, visual blight, air pollution, etc. which reduce the desirability of the area for resi- dential uses. 2. The decreased desirability of the neighborhood is followed closely by a decline in residential property values. 3. Accompanying this decline in property values is increased pessimism about the area's future particularly among its residents, the real estate.industry, and investors. 4. This pessimism results in economic disinvestment by prop- erty owners in the form of reduced maintenance leading to deteriorating property conditions, tax delinquencies,,a decline in the tax base, and an overall loss to the community. The problem of incompatible uses within residential areas is most prevalent within the incorporated portion of the Planning Area. Reference to Maps 3 and 4 which illustrate existing land use, reveals that commercial, industrial, and office uses are dispersed throughout the city in such a manner as to pose a potential threat to most neighborhoods except the newer, more affluent subdivi- sions. This finding is reinforced by recent citizen surveys which have indi- cated that problems.normally associated with incompatible land uses are among the priority concerns of the community.* To illustrate the extent of this problem in the city, the following five .areas have been identified as being threatened by incompatible land uses (see Map 6): *Information obtained through,New Hanover County Public Participation Program and from Community Analysis 1975: A Citizen's Guide to Wilmington Neighborhoods. 8 mn A tp ---- -------- > MAP 6 NEIGHBORHOODS THREATENED BY INCOMPATIBLE LAND USES PA qT NEW HANOVER COUNTY I. Spofford Mills and Pinehurst area. 2. Arcadia and Willowdale area. 3. Mercer Avenue, Rosemont, and Beaumont area. 4. Audubon area. 5. Sunset Hills. In most cases, the existing problems of incompatible land uses are directly related to zoning practices -- the structure of the zoning ordinance ,and the rezoning process. The city's zoning ordinance is constructed in what is commonly referred to as a "pyramid". The ordinance restricts commercial and industrial uses in residential areas.but it does not restrict residential uses in commercial or industrial @istricts, nor does it prevent commercial uses in industrial districts. This.situation actually encourages the establishment of incompatible uses. Rezoning is the second major factor. Numerous small tracts of land which are zoned and used for residences have been rezoned to permit more intensive non-residential uses without considering the impact on surrounding properties and the community as a whole. The relationship between zoning practices and incompatible land uses is well illustrated by the Spofford Mills-Pinehurst and the Mercer Avenue-Rosemont- Beaumont areas. The Spofford Mills-Pinehurst area, although residential in character, is zoned for wholesale and light industrial activities (M-1). This zoning would permit any use except the most offensive manufacturing uses, in this residential neighborhood. The Mercer Avenue-Rosemont-Beaumont area provides an example of the en- croachment of incompatible uses through rezoning. Although this area was origi- nally zoned exclusively for residential uses, recent rezonings to commercial (C-1) and wholesale and light manufacturing (M-1) districts have permitted the encroach- ment of incompatible uses in the area.. 9 b. Residential Sprawl Patterns Maps 3 and 4, which illustrate land use, and Map 5, which illustrates residential development density, clearly show a trend toward residential sprawl conditions. Following the Planning Area's major thoroughfares residential sub- divisions at suburban and, in some cases, urban densities are dispersed through- out the Planning Area. Many factors which contribute to residential sprawl can be identified -- lower land costs in rural areas; the ad valorem tax system; the attraction of water-oriented recreational areas; and the placemen,t of employ- ment centers in outlying areas, to mention a few. Such a development pattern has significant liabilities. In the first place, studies* have indicated that the direct public costs of scattered suburban sprawl may have been as high as $150 per family per year in 1�70; undoubtedly, they are much higher now. These costs derive from increased expenditur es ,for public serv- ices such as police and fire protection, water and sewer, and transportation fa- cilities resulting from inefficient land use patterns. In addition, suburban sprawl is wasteful in its use of land. Lands which are skipped in the "leap-frogging" process of sprawl development become idle. They have no recognizable use; they are not usually farmed or used for purpose- ful forestry. Infilling may eventually take place; however, until that time, the land represents an economic liability. c. Residential Septic Tanks In the unincorporated portion of the Planning Area where central sewerage systems are not available, septic tanks are used extensively for treating domestic wastes. Unfortunately, in many areas of the county septic tanks have been developed at excessive densities or placed in unsuited soils resulting in *Marion Clawson, Suburban Land Conversion in the United States, 1971. a significant number of septic tank failures. A recent survey conducted by the New Hanover County Health Department* indicates that at least 19 residen- tial subdivisions have a history of chronic septic tank problems. The location of these subdivisions is shown on Map 7. The consequences of these septic tank failures are serious. In addition to the obvious health hazards, malfunctioning septic tank systems make a sig- nificant contribution to the pollution of surface and groundwaters, forcing the closure of shellfishing areas; and they represent an economic liability to the property owner by requiring frequent maintenance. d. Land Drainage inadequate land drainage is one,of the most serious and widespread land use problems found in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. Drainage problems have been given high priority by the Planning Area's residents through the-Public Participation Program. The residents' concerns for drainage have also been supported by the Planning Staff's survey of existing land use which identified numerous examples of inadequate drainage systems. Due to an almost flat topography and the widespread occurrence of high water table conditions, extensive artificial land drainage is required in the Planning Area both to manage excess runoff generated by the development and to lower the water table sufficiently to create buildable lots and to permit the temporary use of septic tanks for sewage treatment and disposal. The Planning Area's existing land drainage problems result primarily from three factors: 1. Inadequate initial design. In some instances the initial design of drainage systems is inadequate for managing the volume of runoff generated by the development, and may not lower the water sufficiently to prevent standing water during wet seasons and to permit proper function of septic tanks. *Henry von Oesen and Associates, Greater Wilmington Area 201 Facility Plan, Part 11, 1975 (Draft). MAP 7 RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISIONS EXPERIENCING CHRONIC SEPTIC TANK PROBLEMS SOURCE: Henry Von Dozen and Associates, Greater Wilmington Area 201 Facility Plan, Part IL, 1975 (Draft) NEW HANOVER COUNTY WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING COMMISSION 2. Improper construction and maintenance. This is the most serious factor. Lack of ditch stabilization, using materi- als such as grass or riprap, together with inadequate annual maintenance leads to siltation and an accumulation of debris which eventually cause the drainage system to fail. 3. Design of drainage systems on a parcel-by-parcel basis. st drainage systems are designed to meet the needs of an individual subdivision with little or no attention to the overall needs of the Planning Area. The result is that the volume of water moving from one parcel to another may exceed the capacity of the downstream drainage ditch, causing serious undercutting and erosion; or that high sediment loads may be carried from one drainage system to another, resulting in excessive silting of the downstream systems. In summary, the overall consequences of poor land drainage include stand- ing water during wet periods, excessive erosion and sedimentation, septic tank malfunction, and increased maintenance costs to property owners. The long-term environmental impacts of extensive artificial land drainage also present potentially serious problems for the Planning Area. .Th@ continued productivity of New Hanover County's coastal ecosystems is dependent upon main- taining the quality and natural salinity of the estuarine waters*; however, artificial drainage systems tend to significantly increase the flow of fresh water into the estuary, thereby changing the natural salinity regime. Artificial drainage also reduces the cleansing effect of vegetation on runoff and may lower the quality of the water entering the estuary. A recent study** by the U.S. Geological Survey in Northeastern North Carolina concludes that not only does artificial land drainage increase the amount of water entering the estuaries during wet periods, but also that the water removed by the drainage systems contribute significant amounts of bacteria, nutrients, pesticides, and sediment to the estuary. *John Clark, Coastal Ecosystems: Ecological Considerations for Management of the Coastal Zone, (The Conservation Foundation: Washington, 1974), pp. 38-9. **Ralph C. Heath, Hydrology of the,Albemarle-Pamlico Region North Carolina: A Preliminary Report on the Impact of Agricultural Developments, U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Report 9-75, May 1975. p. 75. 12 Clearly then, land drainage to facilitate urban development has serious environmental impacts which must be addressed by policies for future land development. B. COMMERCIAL 1. Summary of Commercial.Land Use Acreage Eighty-seven percent, or 1,064 acres, of all commercial uses (retail and wholesale trade activity) land in the Planning Area is within the City of Wil- mington. (See Maps 3 and 4.) Commerciatland usage accounts for 11.5 percent of all developed land within the City, and only I percent of the total developed land outside the City. This distribution reflects the fact that Wilmington serves as the commercial center for a broad trading area. Within the City of Wilmington, commercial activity is con ceftfated along Market Street, Third Street, Castle Street', Carolina Beach Road, and Oleander Drive. Smaller concentrations are located on South College Road, South Kerr Avenue, and Wrightsville Avenue. Outside the City most commercial activity is located along Oleander Drive, U.S. Highway 17, and Castle Hayne Road. This commercial activity consists mainly of highway-oriented establishments (automobile sales, mobile home sales, and service stations) and dispersed neighborhood-oriented establishments (convenience food stores). 2. Commercial Land Use Problems a. Strip Commercial Development Within the Planning Area several traffic arteries are plagued by strip commercial development. Although there are several legitimate highway commercial activities, such as automobile sales and services and mobile home sales firms, strip commercial development occurs when a succession of unrelated and unplanned types of commercial activity develops along a segment of unlimited access traffic artery. &( Strip commercial development is not only undesirable in itself but it is also detrimental to the proper development of the community. When compared,with grouped or clustered commercial concentrations, the disadvantages and detrimental characteristics of strip commercial activity become apparent. The following is a list of the more obvious disadvantages of strip commercial development. 1. Strip commercial development leads to speculation and inflated land values which results in a large amount of unproductive vacant land. 2. Strip commercial development depreciates land for residential uses. 3. The additional traffic generated by strip commercial develop- ment often results in: a. the necessity to make street widenings, requiting purchase of expensive commercial frontage, and the, encouragement of further strip development; b. vehicles turning into and out of many access points interrupt through traffic and creates serious traffic hazards. 4. Strip commercial uses are at a definite disadvantage when com- peting with grouped commercial concentrations which are able to attract greater number of shoppers. 5. Strip commercial development often results in uncoordinated, garish signs which lower the overall aesthetic quality of the community. Many of the disadvantages of this type of development are apparent in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area. In the City of Wilmington, it is most apparent on Market Street, Oleander Drive, and Carolina Beach Road. The early ,stages of strip commercial development are becoming apparent along sections of Wrightsville Avenue, making this street extremely vulnerable to the continued encroachment of commercial uses. Steps, should be taken at this time to prevent further commercial rezonings in this area, and existing commercially zoned parcels which are vacant should be examined for possible rezoning to less intensive uses. Outside the City there are two traffic arteries where the problems of strip development are apparent and two for which there is a high potential for 14 strip commercial Problems. Strip commercial development exists along Market Street (U.S. Highway 17) from the City Limits to the community of Ogden. Although there is less commercial activity, a similar situation occurs on Castle Hayne Road from the City Limits through Wrightsboro. Due to the land use mix in this area, this traffic artery carries much industrial and residential traffic, and continued commercial expansion can only lead to further problems along this already overburdened highway. The potential for strip commercial development exists along Oleander Drive from the vicinity of Forest Park Drive to Greenville Loop Road. At present, there are many legitimate highway commercial establishments along this segment. The encroachment of other types of commercial activities in this area raises the potential for undesirable strip development. To a lesser extent the same problem exists on Wrightsville Avenue parallel to Oleander Drive. It has been caused by continued encroachment of various commercial and service activities from the City Limits to the general vicinity of the Cape Fear Hospital. b. Over-Zoning Over-zoning exists when more property is zoned for a particular use than the market demands. An analysis of the amount of land zoned for commercial uses and the amount actually used indicates that the Planning Area is significantly over-zoned. It is estimated that in the Planning Area approximately 2,800 acres are zoned commercial. Of this amount, approximately 1,200 acres, or 43.0 percent, are currently in commercial use. According to general planning estimates of commercial needs, a 10 percent margin above existing commercially developed land should be zoned to allow for expansion. If this estimate is accurate, then ap- proximately 1,320 acres of land should be zoned for commercial uses. Since 2,800 0 acres in the Planning Area are currently zoned commercial, it appears that the' area is excessively over-zoned for commercial uses. Over-zoning is most visible in the portion of the Planning Area lying outside the City Limits. In this area,_1100 acres are zoned for commercial uses while approximately 160 acres are actually in use. Using the 10 percent rule-of-thumb mentioned above, only 180 acres of commercially zoned land is needed in the unincorporated area, indicating that five times more land is zoned commercial than is needed. In the city,approximately 1700 acres are zoned commercial and 1100.are in use. With an indicated need for 1220 acres of commercial land, this repre- sents 39 percent more land zoned for commercial uses than needed. Over-zoning creates several physical and economic problems. Among its main disadvantages are the following: 1. Over-zoning causes inefficient and spotty development patterns. 2. Over-zoning diminishes the potential for the most desirable sites to be utilized. 3. Unused, over-zoned land is removed from other productive uses. 4. Over-zoning eliminates the potential advantages of clustering mutually supportive uses. C. INDUSTRIAL 1. Summary of Existing Industrial Land Use Acreage This category includes all manufacturing establishments, warehousing, stockpiles, tank farms, and resource production and extraction. There are approximately 5,600 acres devoted to industrial use in the Planning Areaj making it the second most extensive category. Industry accounts for 22.5 percent of all the developed land in the Planning Area. There are 5,470 acres, 97 percent, located outside the City of Wilmington, while only 153 industrial acres are located in the City. 16 Industrial activity outside the City is found mainly along U.S. Highway 421; the area bounded by North 23rd Street, Castle Hayne Road and Smith Creek, the General Electric plant on Castle Hayne Road; the area bounded by Sunnyvale Drive, the City Limits of Wilmington, and the Cape Fear River; and, the area immediately north of Market Street and N.C. Highway 132. In the city, industrial activity is located mainly in five areas: 1. In an arc beginning south of the Northeast Cape Fear River Bridge extending through the Brooklyn neighborhood to Love Grove; 2. Along the Cape Fear River south of the,Memorial Bridge to the city limits; 3. Around the intersection of Shipyard and Burnett Boulevards; 4. Along the eastern ends of Marstellar and Kidder Streets; 5. Around the intersection of Oleander Drive, Dawson, and Wooster Streets. 2. Industrial Land Use Problems a. Encroachment Into Residential Areas Examination of Maps 3 and-4, which illustrate existing land use, clearly reveals a trend toward the encroachment of industrial uses into residential and commercial areas. Some of the more obvious examples are the Brooklyn-Love Grove area; the Covil Avenue area; the intersection of Oleander Drive and Wooster and Dawson Streets; and the intersection of 41st Street and Lake Street in Lincoln Forest. The negative consequences of the encroachment of incompatible land uses. into residential areas have been discussed in Section III, A,4. It may be assumed that similar problems -- reduced property values, reduced maintenance, and property decline -- would result from the encroachment of industrial uses into viable commercial districts. b. Industrial Dispersion and Over-Zoning While there is an observable degree of cluste ring of industrial uses in the City, the trend in unincorporated areas of the county appears to be toward dispersion. Most recently developed industries, such as General Electric and Hercules, are located individually on large tracts of land. Although this trend has not reached serious proportions at this time, it does present some significant problems from the standpoint of the efficient utilization of prime industrial lands, the efficient delivery of public services, protection of natural resource areas, and traffic congestion. A more clustered or compact industrial development pattern would reduce the cost of providing basic public services, such as water, sewer and fire protection. In addition, clustered industrial districts could reduce the adverse environ- mental impacts of industrial development. For example, if industries were located in close proximity to one another along Rt. 421 North, they could utilize common docking facilities and thereby protect valuable wooded swamp areas adjacent to the river. It should be emphasized that the clustering of industries in this manner would require special site planning and development precautions. One of the contributing factors to the dispersion of industries is over- zoning. It is estimate .d that approximately 20,000 acres are presently zoned for industrial uses, with approximately 5,600 acres actually in industrial use at this time. It has been estimated, based on employment projections, that between 1975 and the year 2000, the Planning Area will need only 3,000 additional acres of industrial land or a total of 8,600 acres in industrial use. Therefore, the Planning Area has approximately 133 percent more industrially zoned,land at this time than will be needed in the next 25 years. It should be noted that much of the land that is zoned for industrial use is not suited for such uses from environmental and locational standpoints. The disadvantages of over-zoning which were discussed in relation to com- mercial uses (Section III, B,2) also apply to industrial use. 18 D. TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, AND UTILITIES This category contains a diverse range of uses from industrial related activities such as the N.C. State Port and power generating plants to utility business offices. As such it is a significant land user comprising a total of almost 5,000 acres in the Planning Area. This acreage represents 20 percent of total developed land. Of this total approximately 2000 acres are located in the Wilmington City Limits and approximately 3000 acres are located in the balance of the Planning Area. Three of the largest users of land in this category are the New Hanover County.Airport, the Sutton Power generating plant, and the North Carolina State Ports Terminal. E. PARKS AND RECREATION This category includes both public and private cultural, entertainment, and recreational activities and facilities. There are 1,408 acres in this category in the Planning Area, with 52.2 percent located outside the City, and 47.8 percent located in the City. When examining the distribution of the public component of this land use category marked differences between the incorporated and unincorporated parts of the Planning Area can be identified. Reference to Maps 3 and 4 reveals a relatively dispersed distribution of parks and:open space throughout the city, thus allowing greater access by Wilmington's residents. In contrast, public recreational land and open space areas outside the city is concentrated primarily in three areas -- Hugh McRae Park which is owned by New Hanover County, Carolina Beach State Park, and Fort Fisher State Historic Site. F. OFFICE AND INSTITUTIONAL This category includes schools, churches, hospitals, business offices not dealing in retail or wholesale trade, and government activities. Office and institutional land use accounts for 3.1 percent of all developed land within the Planning Area, with 81 percent (623 acres) of the total Planning Area's office and institutional land uses being located within the City. Office and institutional uses occupy 6.7 percent of the developed land in the City and only 0.9 percent outside the City. The experience of other cities and urban areas indicates that the city, particularly the downtown area, will continue to be the center for office and institutional activities in the future. G. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY This category includes all cultivated crop fields and cattle grazing fields and forest lands where forestry management principles are conducted.a Agriculture and forestry account for 12.2 percent (16,100 acres) of total acreage in the Planning Area. Of this total 10,050 acres are in forest lands and 6050 ac res are in cultivated fields and pastures. Maps 3 and 4 show a concentration of this land use in the northern part of the county. The importance of agriculture in New Hanover County has diminished in recent years as the area has become more urbanized. In 1962, 2.8 percent of the county's workforce was employed in agriculture, but by 1972 agricultural employment fell to only 1.1 percent of total employment. Cash receipts for crop and animal products has also shown a decline. In 1970 farm receipts totaled 2.4 million, but in 1971 receipts totaled only $2.1 million. aCultivated crop fields and grazing pastures obtained from aerial photographs taken in October, 1974. Forest lands identified with the assistance of Durwood Baggett, Agricultural Extension Office. 20 Even though agriculture has been declining in New Hanover County, area residents have expressed through the Public Participation Program a strong desire to preserve agriculture as a way of life. IV. SUMMARY A. MAJOR LAND USE ISSUES Basically, the survey and analysis of existing land uses in the Wilmington-New Ha nover Planning Area has identified six key issues or problems which must be addressed in,the land use and development policies adopted by the Wilmington City Council and the New Hanover County Commissioners: 1. A sprawling development pattern Urban sprawl, or "leapfrog" development, has been shown to be inefficient in the use of scarce land resources, to increase energy consumption, and to increase the costs of public services which must be borne by city and county taxpayers. 2. Neighborhood decline through the encroachment of'incompatible uses The development of incompatible uses such as businesses or industries, within residential areas, have been shown to be an important contributor to the decline of neighborhoods. Such deterioration is extremely costly to the public through a loss of housing units, a loss of tax revenue, and an overall decrease in the quality of life in the community- 3. Strip commercial development Strip commercial development occurs when a succession of unrelated and unplanned commercial activities develop along a segment of an unlimited access highway. Strip development is undesirable because it-tends to encourage land speculation, inflated land values, resulting in a large amount of unproductive land; it depreciates the value of surrounding properties for less intensive uses; and it tends to increase traffic volumes, often necessitating expensive street widenings. 22 4. Over-zoning Over-zoning exists when more property is zoned for a particular use than the market demands. It is estimated that the Planning Area has over 200 percent more commercially-zoned land than is needed and over 130 percent more industrially zoned land than needed. Over-zoning to this degree tends to encourage sprawling development patterns; it diminishes the potential that the most desirable commercial and industrial sites will be developed; and it removes land from other productive uses. 5. Drainage Many artificial land drainage systems which are required for development in most areas of New Hanover County have not been successful in removing water runoff and in lowering the water table. The result has been standing water in many subdivisions, malfunctioning septic tanks, and increasing maintenance costs. In addition, studies have indicated that extensive artificial drainage systems may have a serious negative impact on productive estuarine waters. 6. Septic tanks In a large number of subdivisions, septic tanks have been developed at excessive densities or in unsuited soils resulting in a high incidence of failures. In addition to the obvious health hazards, malfunctioning septic tanks make a significant contribution to the pollution of the Planning Area's surface waters, and they represent an economic liability to the property owner through the requirement for frequent maintenance. B. ROLE OF LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT CONTROL ORDINANCES Considering the extent of existing land use problems in the Planning Area and the fact that zoning ordinances and subdivision regulations are in force throughout the area, it seems appropriate in conclusion to examine the role of these ordinances in guiding development, in protecting neighborhoods, and in protecting the environment. More specifically, why have these ordinances been ineffective in preventing the land use problems currently experienced by the Planning Area? For several years, the effectiveness of zoning and subdivision ordinances have been criticized. However, in many instances, the criticism has been directed toward.the ordinances themselves and their administration, and these are not the proper targets of concern. Ordinances are merely the tools of public policy, and where the policy basis for ordinances is weak, the ordinances themselves will necessarily be weak and ineffective. The Wilmington City,Council and the New Hanover County Commissioners adopted zoning and subdivision ordinances several years ago. Upon examination, however, it appears that these ordinances were more the result of crisis situations than the result of any comprehensive public policies concerning land development. The outcome has been a set of ordinances which are weak, which are inconsistent and often conflicting, and which contain some serious loopholes. The New Hanover County subdivision ordinance provides an example. The ordinance states that the regulation of the subdivision of land in the county is necessary to create "conditions essential to public health, safety, and gen- eral welfare"; however, provisions of the ordinance permit developers to aVo4d meeting the minimum development standards by allowing the subdivision of land through procedures known as metes and bounds. The frequency of zoning ordinance amendments provides a further example. Over the past five years the text and maps of the city and county zoning ordinances have been amended a total of 493 times. This would indicate that the zoning ordinances are not actually implementing any clear public policy directed toward land development; rather, the policy seems to be to have a zoning ordinance. Clearly then, to be effective in preventing the continued creation of land use problems, the Planning Area's land use and development control ordinances 24 must be revised and up-dated so that they reflect rational and consistent policies formulated through the land use planning process. Further, these ordinances, once revised, should be amended only when it is explicitly shown that (1) an error was made when the ordinances were adopted, or (2) that conditions have changed sufficiently since adoption to merit amendment. newMnover comprebeasive planning progimin qP4 e maies of Tt XPR I L TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................. I II. ESTIMATES OF GROSS LAND NEEDS ................................. 2 III. DETAILED LAND NEEDS ESTIMATES ........... ...................... 4 A. INDUSTRIAL LAND NEEDS ..................................... 4 B. COMMERCIAL LAND NEEDS ..................................... 5 C. RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS .................................... 7 1). SUMMARY ................................................... 9 Appendix Gulf of Alaska Figure 16.--Location and magnitude of Pacific ocean perch catches in the Gulf of Alaska by the Japanese trawl fishery. Catches are the average annual removals in 1963-75. Since 1978 only stern trawlers (Figure 17) have been used in the trawl fish- eries of the Gulf of Alaska. Many of these stern trawlers are 246 to 335 ft (75 to 102 m) in length and between 2,000 and 4,000 gross tons. All have freezing facilities and some have fish meal plants. A small number of trawlers are less than 500 gross tons. In 1978, USSR had 32 trawlers operating in the Gulf compared to 26 for Japan, 11 for ROK, and 5 for Poland (Table 5). Figure 17.--Japanese stern trawler, Ryujin Maru No. 8, operating in the Gulf of Alaska. (Courtesy of U.S. observer Program, NMFS, Seattle). 26 II. ESTIMATES OF GROSS LAND NEEDS Two levels of detail have been used in estimating future land needs. At the first level, at attempt was made to simply estimate the gross land needs in three categories*: (a) Urban areas such as those found in the City of Wilmington and its suburbs. In these areas expected population densities would be at least. 2000 persons per square mile, requiring a full range of public services. (b) Rural communities, such as Ogden or Castle Hayne, where population densities would be much lower, using 640 persons per square mile as a rule of thumb. Extensive public services probably would not be required in these areas. (c) Dispersed rural areas where lot sizes would be extremely large, averaging 320 persons per square mile, and where only minimal public services would be provided. Based on an evaluation of past trends and the existing distribu tion of population, it is estimated that approximately 75 percent of the Planning Area's future population will be accomodated in urban areas, 15 percent in rural communities, and the remaining 10 percent dispersed throughout the rural areas of the county. Using these estimates the following table illus- trates the amount of land needed in each general category. According to these estimates, approximately 55 square miles of land will be required to support the Planning Area's expected twenty-five year population growth. Focusing on the urban and rural community categories which are most sensitive to land capability constraints, approximately 36 square miles of land suited for development will be required during the.twenty-five year planning period. *Analysis at this level is required by the Coastal Resources Commission s "Guidelines for Local Planning Under the Coastal Area Management Act of 1974". Table I SUMMARY OF GROSS LAND NEEDS 1975-1985 1985-1995 1995-2000 1975-2000 Category People Land People Land People -Land People Land Urban 15,400 8Sq. Mi. 18,750 9 Sq. Mi. 9,750 5 Sq. Mi. 43,900 22 Sq. Mi. ural Community 3,100 5Sq. Mi. 3,750 6 Sq. Mi. 1,950 3 Sq. Mi. 8,800 14 Sq. Mi. Dispersed Rural 2,100 7Sq. Mi. 2,500 8 Sq. Mi. 1,300 4 Sq. Mi. 5,900 19 Sq. Mi. Total 20,600 20 Sq. mi. 25,000 23 Sq. Mi. 13,000 12 Sq. Mi. 58,600 55 Sq. Mi. Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department 3 III. DETAILED LAND NEEDS ESTIMATES At the second level of detail, estimates of the specific land needs have been prepared for the primary users of land -- residences, industries, and commercial activities. These estimates are based on three considerations: (1) A statistical analysis,of the amount of land required to support the Planning Area's current population; (2) Accepted planning guidelines for estimating land needs; (3) Population and employment projections. In addition, the estimates based on these factors have been increased by 50 percent to allow adequate flexibility for the proper operation of the real estate market and to account for land which will be held off the market in- definitely. A. INDUSTRIAL LAND NEEDS Estimating the amount of land required for industrial uses in the future is very difficult. There is great variability in the site size, shape, and location requirements among various types Of industries. In addition, specific firms within major industrial groupings may have widely varying land needs. Even though accurate estimates are difficult, it is important to approximate industrial land needs so that adequate land in appropriate locations can be set-aside for future use. Estimates of the Planning Area's industrial land needs have been developed using local information on the ratio of land to workers for major industrial groups and employment projections for each of these groups. The estimates have also been aggregated to show land needs in the extensive and intensive classifi- cations which were discussed in the.first part of this report. The estimates which are summarized in Table 2, indicate that the county's extensive industries will require approximately 2690 acres over the next 25 4-- years, while intensive industries which are smaller land users will require 145 acres. Overall, the county will require 2835 acres of industrial land between 1975 and 2000, or an average of almost 110 acres per year. Considering the requirement for market flexibility, a total of 4,200 acres of extensive land and.220 acres of intensive land will be required between 1974 and 2000. These estimates, of course, assume that current land to worker ratios will persist into the future. (Table I in the Appendix illustrates the county's current industrial land/em.ployee ratio and the employment projections for major industry groups.) Table 2 New Hanover County Industrial Land Needs 1974-2000 Industry type 1974-80 1980-90 1990-2000 1974-2000 Actual Acres Required Acres For Market Needed Flexibility Extensive 650 1070 970 2690 4200 Textiles 40 60 60 260 390 Lumber and Wood 60 100 90 250 380 Fabricated metals 350 580 530 1460 2200 Chemicals 130 230 200 560 840 Stone, clay, and glass 70 100 90 260 390 Intensive 35 5@ 53 145 220 Apparel 6 11 10 27 40 Machinery 14 22 20 56 84 .Food 9 15 14 38 60 Printing 3 4 4 11 16 Miscellaneous 3 5 5 13 20 JTotal 685 1 1127 1 1023 1 2835 4420 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department B. COMMERCIAL LAND NEEDS Since studies have shown that there appears to be only a slight correlation between the amount of land in commercial-land uses and total population, the 5 estimates of total commercial land needs are based on projected retail sales and projected trade sector employment. These variables are felt to more accurately reflect the Planning Area's commercial needs because it serves a large primary trading area consisting of New Hanover, Brunswick, Pender, and Columbus Counties, as well as an extensive secondary trading area. As expected, there is a significant gap between the needs estimates based on trade employment per acre and retail sales per acre (Table 3); however, in the absence of any data which favors one projection over the other, an unweighted average of the two has been used as an estimate of total commercial land needs. As indicated in Table 3, the Planning Area will require approximately 2600 additional acres of commercial land by the year 2000. This land must be allocated among four major commercial activities -- regional centers, community centers, neighborhood centers, and highway service areas. Table 3 Alternative Estimates of Commercial Land Needs, 1975-2000 Additional Commercial Area Needed (acres) Estimate Basis 1975-80 1980-90 1990-2000 1975-2000 Actual Acres Required Acres For Market Needed Flexibility Retail Sales/acre 371 836 838 2047 3100 Trade Employment/acre 279. 537 591 1407 2100 Lerage estimate 325 700 700 1725 2600 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department The regional shopping centers will have adequate facilities to offer full depth and variety in comparative shopping. Each center will contain more than 500,000 square feet of sales area and must be suppported by a minimum of 100,000 people. --6-- The community shopping areas, in addition to providing convenience goods and services found in the neighborhood shopping areas, will also provide a wide range of shopping facilities which will permit some degree of comparative shopping. The community shopping areas should be designed to service a population of between 20,000 and 70,000 and have from 50,000 to 150,000 square feet.of commercial floor space. Community shopping areas should be located at the intersection of major arterial roads. The neighborhood shopping areas will provide for a minimum of 5,000 population and should contain from 15,000 to 50,000 square feet.of commercial floor space. The primary purpose of the neighborhood shopping area is to provide convenience goods and services to individual neighborhoods. Therefore, the neighborhood shopping area is limited in its scope of commercial facilities to such activities as retail sale of food, drugs, etc., and the operation of personal service establishments such as laundry, dry cleaning, barbering, etc. Neighborhood shopping areas ideally should be located at the intersection of arterial and collector streets. The highway oriented service areas should contain only those establishments oriented toward providing services for automobile traffic. These service establishments would include motels, restaurants and gasoline service stations. Such a service area would be located on a major arterial route. C. RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS At the present time, there are approximately 11,080 acres of land in resi- dential uses in the Planning Area with an average gross density of 2.7 families per acre. Although residential densities are higher within the City of Wilmington, it is felt that an overall density of 2.5 families per acre is a useful guideline for determining total residential land needs. 7 According to population forecasts for New Hanover County, the population will increase from a current level of 92,000 to 151,000 in the year 2000. Assuming an average family size of 2.5 persons in the future, this amounts to an increase of 23,600 families. By applying the gross density guideline of 2.5 families per acre, approximately 9400 acres of land will be needed for residential uses over the next 25 years. How this land will be distributed among low, moderate, and high density residential uses is dependent upon several factors -- public values and attitudes, economic conditions, environmental capability, private development decisions, and others. However, should current development patterns continue, it is possible to approximate the number of acres needed for various residen- tial densities. A recent study of residential land uses in the Planning Area'indicates that residential development generally occurs in three density classifications: suburban-rural densities, moderate urban densities, and high urban densities. These density classes and their yield of persons and dwelling units per acre is illustrated in Table 4. By assuming that the future distribution of residential development between the three classes will be 25 percent suburban-rural, 50 percent moderate urban, and 25 percent high urban, estimates of future land needs in each class can be made. These estimates are summarized in Table 5. Table 4 Existing Residential Density Classes -- New Hanover County Range of d.iT'.s Avg. # [email protected] Range of persons Avg. # persons Density Class per acre per acre per acre per acre Suburban-rural 0-2 1 0-5 2.5 Moderate urban 3-6 4.5 7.5-15 11.25 IHigh urban 7-12 8.5 17.5-30 23.75 Source: Wilmington-Ne,4 Hanover Planning Department __8__ G Table 5 Estimate of Residential Land Needs, 1975-2000 Avg. d.u.'s Families to be Actual Acres Required per acre accomodated Acres For Market Density Class Needed Flexibility Suburban-rural 1 5,900 5,900 8,800 Moderate urban 4.5 11,800 2,600 3,900 High urban 8.5 5,900 700 1,000 TOTALS 23,600 9,200 13,700 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department D. SUMMARY Table 6 provides a summary of the Planning Area's land needs for,the 1975-2000 planning period. The summary shows that approximately 21,000 acres, or 33 square miles, will be needed for industrial, commercial, and residential uses alone. Space must also be provided for a variety of additional uses such as recreation, open space, and highways. Table 6 Summary of Future Land Needs Number of Acres Required to Insure Land Use Category Market Flexibility 1975-2000 Industrial 4,420 Extensive 4,200 Intensive 220 Commercial 2,600 Residential 13,700 TOTAL 20,720 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department 9 APPENDIX TABLE I ACREAGE AND EMPLOYEE INVENTORY OF LOCAL INDUSTRIES Average@' Average Reporting Total Total Employees --Acreage No. Employees Units Acres Employees Per Acre Food and Kindred Products 1.8 41.9 18 32.4 754 23.3 Textile Mill Products 98.0 750.a 2 196.0 1,500 7.7 Apparel and Other Textile Products 4.3 233. 8 34.4 1,866 54.2 Lumber and Wood Products 11.6 33.3 24 278.4 902 3.2 Printing and Publishing 1.0 27.4 11 11.0 301 27.4 Chemicals and Allied Products 102.9b 190. 13 1,337.7 2,474 1.8 Stone, Clay, and Glass Products 522.8 34.4 8 4,182.4 275 .1 Fabricated Metal Products 56.8 103. 7 397.6 722 1.8 Machinery, Except Electrical 8.5 69. 8 554 8.1 Electrical Equipment a and Supplies 29.8 178.5 2 59.6 357 6.0 Totals 101 6,597.5 9,705 1.5 aData collected from tax records (all other data from County Business Patterns - 1972) bLand currently used in production by Hercules figured only in average not total holdings of land by Hercules. APPENDIX TABLE 2 SECTOR WORKFORCE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: 1972-2000 MANUFACTURING NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1972 EMPLOYMENT Sector -Employment Percent 1980 2000 Textiles 1360 13.3 1649 2141 2580 Lumber and Wood 800 7.9 980 1272 1533 Fabricated Metals 2890 28.4 3522 4572 5510 Chemicals 1110 10.9 1352 1755 2115 Stone, Clay, Glass 280 2.8 347 451 543 Total Extensive 6440 63.3 7850 10191 12281 Apparel 1590 15.6 1934 2512 3026 Machinery 500 4.9 608 789 951 Food 970 9.5 1178 1530 1843 Printing 310 3.1 384 499 601 Miscellaneous 350 3.4 422 547 660 Total Intensive 3720 36.7 4526 5877 7081 TOTAL 10160 100 12376 16068 19362 Source: Technical Report Number 1: Human and Economic Resources ne" hanover comprehensive planning progTam Tly an*sIs of' 9")"h akernadves MCI 6j TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................... I A. NATIONAL TREND TOWARD GROWTH MANAGEMENT ....................... 1 B. NEED FOR LOCAL GROWTH POLICIES ................................ 2 C. STUDY OUTLINE ................................................. 4 II. ANALYSIS OF THE AFFECTS OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES .... 5 A. ALTERNATIVES .................................................. 5 B. MEASURES OF AFFECTS ........................................... 5 C.. METHODOLOGY ................................................... 7 D. RESULTS OF ANALYSIS ........................................... 8 III. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ..................................... 12 IV. IMPACT OF GROWTH ON KEY FACILITIES ................................ 17 A. WATER SUPPLY ................................................... 17 B. SEWAGE TREATMENT .............................................. 18 C. HIGHWAY SYSTEM ................................................ 19 D. SCHOOLS ........................................................ 20 Appendix I: Review of Population Projections Appendix II: Cost Estimating Procedures for Public Services I. INTRODUCTION A. NATIONAL TREND TOWARD GROWTH MANAGEMENT The traditional ethic of growth is being challenged in many communities throughout the United States. The premise that growth and progress go hand-in-hand is no longer universally accepted. The costs and benefits of growth are emerging as major public issues. Misgivings over growth with its attendant consequences -- rapid consumption of land, alteration of the environment, and increasing demand for public services -- have led some communities to develop public policies which affect the nature and extent of local growth. The growth management policies of communities such as Ramapo, New York and Petaluma, California have been challenged and upheld by the courts. At the same time, this emerging trend toward local growth management has not been without strong opposition. Dissent over growth controls and limits has been expressed by various business interests, property owners, builders, and advocates for the disinfranchised: the poor, minorities, the underemployed, and the aged.* Most often, the basis for opposition has been that the long- range impacts of growth management have not been sufficiently evaluated and that the overall impact of growth limits on the general welfare of the community may be negative. The predominant growth attitudes among some individuals and groups still include the following: .1. growth stabilizes or improves the local tax situation by broadening the tax base and reducing per capita tax burdens; ,vRandall W. Scott, ed., Management and Control of Growth, Vol. I (Washington, D.C.: The Urban Land Institute, 1975), p. 2. 2. most growth pays its own way; 3. new development brings a broader range of goods and services to the community. 4. growth improves local wage levels and brings a greater choice of job opportunities. 5. growth brings a greater selection of housing types and locations; 6. development and expansion eventually result in improved community facilities such as fire and health services, schools, and so forth. Many growing communities, however, have found that these premis es of growth are not necessarily true. Growth has brought higher tax bills and a widening gap between service needs and service delivery; new shopping centers have drawn customers away from shopping areas, leading established business interests to question the desirability of growth; and perhaps the..most widespread concern linked to growth has been the lowered quality of life a loss of small town atmosphere or a loss'of neighborhood identity. B. NEED FOR LOCAL GROWTH POLICIES In recent years, Wilmington and New Hanover County have had informal, unstated policies regarding population growth. Neither unit of government has exercised measurable control over growth, and there have been no clear statements concerning the amount of growth desired, the type of growth desired, or where growth should occur. The choice, instead, has been to focus on preserving the living environ- ment of the areals residents by attempting to insure-that growth and accompanying development has minimal impact on existing developed areas and by attempting to provide needed public services and facilities in as timely a manner as possible. It is fair to say that one of the major faults in this approach t o growth has been a widening gap between public service needs and service delivery. Water supply, sewage treatment and disposal, drainage, and recreation are primary examples of service short-falls. The need to close the gap between existing service needs and services delivered is, in itself, a strong argument for a formal public growth policy. At a recent meeting in the Murraysv ille-Gordon Road Planning District, one resident stated that "we must take care of the needs of our current residents before encouraging more people to move to the county." Similar concerns have been expressed by residents of other areas. In addition to these locally demonstrated needs, the Coastal Resources Commission also requires that local governments develop growth policies as a part of the Coastal Area Management program. The Commission has not specified what type of policy should be adopted, only that the locality's growth objec- tives be clearly stated and that policies be developed for achieving these objectives. The growth policies, themselves, need not be complex. Basically, they should contain clear, concise statements of the community's growth objectives and the policies or means to be used in achieving these objectives. Their content should address the three fundamental issues of growth: 1. Quantity. How much growth is desirable for the community? 2. Location. Where should development take place -- close to existing developed areas or dispersed throughout the Planning Area? 3. Type. Does the community want to build an economy based on recreation, or does it want minufacturing activities? Do the people want more apartments or more single- family homes? What about shopping facilities? The purpose of this technical report is to provide the citizens of the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area and their elected officials with information which can be used to facilitate the development of a policy re- garding the area's growth. It is emphasized that much of the information contained in this report is tentative and subject to significant errors in 3 some cases -- particularly in the examination of service costs. In all cases, however, the staff has made every effort to apply cost and benefit assumptions equally to all alternatives. C. STUDY OUTLINE This study contains two principle parts. The first addresses the questions of "how much" and "where" should growth occur. It analyzes the affects of alternative population growth rates and alternative development patterns on the local economy, the costs of public services, and the land resources of the Planning Area. The second part deals with the third major element of growth policies what type of growth should the Planning Area encourage? It is based on a detailed analysis of the local economy which makes it possible'to'forecast the impact of economic development alternatives on the economy. In general terms, it identifies the industrial sectors having the greatest overall impact on the economic well'-being of local residents. C II. ANALYSIS OF THE AFFECTS OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES A. ALTERNATIVES Six growth and development alternatives for the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area.have been defined in terms of two variables: projected total population and the spatial distribution of development generated by population growth. For total population the alternatives assume the three population growth levels identified in Technical Report #1, and for density the alterna- tives assume that each population level will be accommodated in a dispersed or compact development pattern. The six alternatives are described in Table TABLE 1 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES ASSUMPTIONS ALTERNATIVE POPULATION DWELLING UNIT YEAR 2000 DENSITY Low-Compact 122,800 2 DU's per gross acre Low-Dispersed 122,800 .5 DU's per gross acre Moderate-Compact 140,300 2 DU's per gross acre Moderate-Dispersed 140,300 .5 DU's per gross acre High-Compact 151,000 2 DU's per gross acre High-Dispersed 151,000 .5 DU's per gross acre B. MEASURES OF AFFECTS In analyzing the effects of population growth, an attempt has been made to measure the costs and benefits of growth which accrue to the residents of the Planning Area. It would be very difficult, and perhaps impossible, to specify and measure all of the costs and benefits of growth. Such an analysis is limited, first, by the availability of information and, second, by the fact that many costs and benefits cannot be measured. For example, it would be very 5 difficult to realistically measure, in quantifiable terms, the actual costs of increased traffic congestion resulting from population growth. Therefore, it has been necessary to utilize indicators of the costs and benefits of growth. For the purposes of this study, benefits have been measured in terms of the impact of growth on the local economy. Four elements have been considered: (1) total employment which is a measure of the diversification of the local economy and, thereby, an indicator of the range of employment options available to local residents; (2) total manufacturing employment which is an indicator of the amount of money flowing into an area; (3) per capita income which is a measure of economic well-being, although it does not indicate distribution of income; and (4) retail sales which is an indicator of the vitality of the trade sector employing 20 percent of the Planning Area's workforce, and which is also an indicator of the'selection and types of goods available to the resident. The costs of growth have been measured in terms of the cost of providing public services and the impact of population growth on the Planning Area's land resources. Six public service areas have been considered: (1) water (2) sewerage (3) solid waste management (4) fire protection (5) police protection (6) highways A variety of factors could be used to evaluate the impact of growth on the local government. However, costs were selected. because they are readily understood; they are easily compared; and, probably most important, they are of prime interest to citizens and elected officials alike. The impact of growth on the Planning Area's land resources has been analyzed in terms of the amount of land needed to accommodate the three population levels. This is an important measure. It indicates the develop- ment pressure which will be exerted on the county's marginal lands, as well as the reduction in land use alt-ernatives available to future residents. If, for example, 57,000 additional people require 30 square miles of land and only 22 square miles of suited land are available for development without improvement, it would indicate that either environmentally marginal land must be developed or that there must be a change in life-style in the form of more high density apartments and condominiums on environmentally suited land. C. METHODOLOGY 1. Measurement of Impacts on the Local Economy Total employment and manufacturing employment have been derived from the three population projections using projections and assumptions concerning the percent of total population who will be employed and the unemployment rate. Since these factors do not vary appreciably, they can be projected with an acceptable degree of accuracy. An analysis of past trends in incomes and employment reveals that per capita income is highly correlated with total manufacturing employment. Therefore, using this relationship, per capita income at the three population levels has been projected based on total manufacturing employment. A similar analysis reveals that retail sales and total population are also highly correlated. Therefore, projected total population has been used to project retail sales@. It is understood that there are inherent dangers in long-range projections based on assumptions that past trends will remain the same in the future. Therefore, this information should only be used for the purpose of comparing the relative impact of growth alternatives. 2. The Measurement of Impacts on the Provision of Public Servi ces The analysis of the impact of growth on the costs of public services 7 relies heavily on a report by the Research Triangle Institute.* This report is designed primarily to provide a basis for evaluating alternative strategies for the allocation of public funds, and thus, the cost-estimating relationships contained in the report are ideal for the purpose of analyzing the impacts of population growth. The study permits estimation of the impact of total population and the impact of population distribution (development density). An outline of the assumptions and formulas used in this evaluation are included in Appendix II. 3. The Measurement of Impacts on Land Resources Estimates of specific land needs were prepared for the primary users of land -- residences, industries, and commercial activities. These estimates are based on three considerations: (1) a statistical analysis of the amount of land required to support the county's current population; (2) accepted standards for estimating land needs; and (3) population and employment projections. In addition, the estimates based on these factors have been increased by 50 percent to allow adequate flexibility for the proper operation of the real estate market. These estimates of total land need have been compared with an estimate of available developable land. The impact of growth on land resources has been expressed as a percent of available developable land required to meet the needs of each population growth level. D. RESULTS OF ANALYSIS The results of the analysis of growth alternatives are presented in Table 2. The results show that there are significant differences between the costs .*Research Triangle Institute, Center.for Development and Resource Planning, Estimating Costs of Public Services,,Research Memorandum RM-26U-776-1-2, May 1974. TABLE 2 SUMMARY OF GROWTH IMPACT ANALYSIS GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES IMPACT LOW GROWTH MODERATE GROWTH HIGH GROWTH COMPACT DISPERSED COMPACT DISPERSED COMPACT DISPERSED Public-Service Costs Water $ 3,900,000 $ 5,600,000 $ 6,300,000 $ 8,800,000 $ 7,600,000 $ 10,800,000 Sewerage 7,00D,DD0 24,800,OOD 11,200,000 39,200,000 13,440,000 49,200,OOD .Solid Waste 98,000 112,000 157,500 180,000 196,000 224,000 Police Protection 244,000 244,000 392,000 392,000 488,000 488,000 Fire Protection 492,000 492,000 791,000 791,000 984,000 984,000 Highways .17,600,000 34,200,000 _28,400,000 54,900,000 35,500,000 68,300,000 Total $29,334,000 $65,448,000 $47,240,000 $104,426,300 $58,208,000 $129,996,000 Total Employment 60,000 69,000 74,000 Manufacturing Employment 16,000 18,000 19,000 Retail Sales $1.06 Billion $1.39 Billion $1.60 Billion Per Capita Income $7,000 $8,300 $9,100 Percent of Builddble Land Consumed 29% 46% 58% Source: Estimating Costs of Public Services, Research Memorandum RM-26U-776-1-2, Research Triangle Institute, Center for Development and Resource Planning, May, 1974. Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. and benefits between each of the six alternatives. The benefits of growth as measured by its impacts on the local economy appear to increase as total population increases. For example, estimated per ).capita income at the high growth level is $2,100 higher than the low population growth level, a difference of 30 percent. Similarly, retail sales at the high growth level are 51 percent higher than those estimated at the low growth level. The analysis of the costs of growth show similar trends. Considering only total population and not the distribution of population the costs of providing public services increases as growth increases. The per capita costs of services in the six catagories analyzed remain relatively constant for the three growth levels; however, at each population level the per capita cost for dispersed development is more than twice as high as compact development. For example, the per capita cost for servicing the "low-dispersed" growth alteinative ($533) is 1.4 times greater than the per capita costs for servicing the "high-compact'f growth alternative ($385). An analysis of-the county's land resources capability to support develop- ment indicates that there is an ample supply of environmentally suited land, provided necessary improvements are accomplished, to support the county's projected "high" population growth level and its attendant land needs. Therefore, current and future development on environmentally marginal and sensitive land is not necessary nor is the encouragement of a slower growth rate necessary to accommodate future land needs. A final estimate indicates that the "high" population projection would require 58 percent of available developable land;Ithe moderate population level would require 46 percent; and, the low population level would require 29 percent. This study has aLtempted to analyze some of the measurable impacts of growth alternatives on the residents of the Planning Area. As stated earlier _44- the intent of this analysis has been to compare'growth alternatives in relative terms and not to develop absolute estimates of the costs and benefits of any one alternative. A further caution is necessary. There are as many, if not more, factors both quantitative and qualitative, left out of this analysis as areincluded. Many of these factors relate directly to the values and desires of the Planning Area residents. They relate to considerations such as the social and political acceptability of land use and growth controls and a desire for the continuation of the present way-of-life. These factors must be considered in formulating growth policies for the future. III. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACT In evaluating future growth alternatives one major consideration is what types of industries and businesses should be expanded. From a public view- point one of the main questions is which industries will have the greatest impact on improving the income of the local residents. Determining an adequate answer to this question requires a detailed examination of the economy of the Wilmington Metropolitan Area (Wilmington SMSA). To accomplish this task a sophisticated technique of economic analysis called "Input-Output Analysis" was employed. Basically, Input-Output Analysis is a systematic method of analyzing transactions between the different sectors of the economy. Sectors refer to groupings of economic activities which produce similar products or provide similar services. For example, the chemical sector includes manu- facturers of industrial chemicals, synthetic fibers, agriculture chemicals, and etc. The industry groupings used in this study are the same as that used by the North Carolina Employment Security Commission for reporting workforce estimates. Transactions between sectors are expressed in the dollar value of each sector's purchases (inputs) from other sectors and the value of its sales (outputs) to other sectors. In the applications of Input-Output to the local economy, three types of transactions were considered: 1. Sales of goods and services by local sectors to markets outside the local economy (exports). 2. Sales and purchases between sectors within the local area. 3. Purchases by local es'tablishments from sources outside the local economic area (imports). The nature of each of these transactions has important implications for development of the area's economy. The sale or export of goods and services -.4-2 produ ced by local industries to markets outside the local area is the major source for introducing "new money" into the economy. Most economists agree that growth or decline in the volume and value of exports is the.most important factor determining the economic growth or decline of an area. The impact of exporting sectors on the income of local workers was a major consideration in this study. Once new money enters the economy through the export of goods or services it is distributed among several sectors through sales and purchases. These transactions have the effect of multiplying the money, thereby increasing its impact on the income of the local workforce. Since all the goods and services required for the economy to function are not available locally, some must be purchased from outside sources. These purchases (imports) represent a flow of money out of the local economy and thereby represents a loss of potential economic benefit to local residents. Generally the loss of money through imports can be minimized by diversifying the industrial structure of the economy so that it can better support itself. The flow of money as described above is illustrated in Figure 1. The hypothetical diagram shows the partial disposition of income generated by a tourist expenditure for lodging. This transaction introduces "new money" into the economy through the export of a service - providing lodging. The diagram shows that in addition to the direct impact of the "new money" on the motel employees (part of the service sector), it also has indirect impacts on several other-industries - food, clothing, and utilities - before finally "leaking" out of the economy to suppliers. Thus expansion of economic activity in any sector not only affects the income generated in that sector but in other sectors as well. 13 FIGURE 1 FLOW OF MONEY THROUGH THE ECONOMY S U P 3 p L I 5 E FOOD R 17 T 0 EMPLOYEE S 0 U U 1.50 P R $25 MOTEL P L S 8 1 IT EMPLOYEE CLOTHES t R 50 EMPLOYEE S U 80 P P L FUEL E R 20@ EMPLOYEE The flow of money through the economy is important in formulating economic development policies. Decision-makers need to know what impact developments,in different sectors will have on the income of the local work- force. To illustrate these impacts a 10 percent expansion in exports (the source of new money) of the SMSA economy was projected using input-output techniques. A fixed percentage change in exports was assumed in order to make a valid comparison of each sector's ability to generate additional income. The task involved a series of projections computed separately for each'sector. In each projection, the value of exports for one sector was increased 10 percent while exports for all other sectors were held at their 1972 levels. Projec- tions were not computed for the following sectors: 1. Lumber and wood processing. 2. Stone, clay and glass producers. 3. Construction. 4. Domestic and self-employed persons. These sectors consist mainly of local oriented businesses which have little or no export trade. Figure 2 depicts the total increase in income resulting from expansion in the sectors. The value shown for each sector is the income generated for workers in that sector plus the amount generated indirectly in other sectors. This information should be helpful in evaluating development alternatives, however, other factors such as environmental impacts, public facilities require- ments, land needs and tax revenues must also be considered. Although the chart shows the impact of increasing exports, the same rela- tionships hold for cutbacks. Thus the chart can be used to project the loss in income resulting from a 10 percent cutback in exports by the sectors. 15 FIGURE 2 PROJECTED INCREASE IN INCOME FOR SMSA WORKFORCE (Due to a ten percent increase in sector exports) MILLION DOLLARS. 0 0.6 1.8 2.4 3.0 CHEMICALS TRADE T C. U. (1) METALS APPAREL GENERAL GOVERNMENT SERVICES F 1. R. E. (2) FOOD TRANSPORTATION EOUIPMENT MACHINERY TEXTILES AGRICULTURE PRINTING AND PUBLISHING GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURERS T C. U.- Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities (2) F 1. R. E. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate IV. INPACT OF GROWTH ON KEY FACILITIES ,In the Coastal Resources Commission's publication, "Guidelines for Local Planning", it is specifically required that the impact of population growth on existing community facilities and the demand for new facilities. resulting from growth be analyzed. Specific services and facilities to be considered are water and sewer services, school facilities and basic trans- portation facilities. It is the opinion of the Planning Staff that the preceding discussion of growth alternatives in terms of their impact on public service cost is sufficient to insure that the citizens and elected officials of the Wilmington- New Hanover Planning Area are fully apprised of the impact of growth. However, to insure that state planning guides are met the following descriptix)e analysis of the impact of growth on community facilities has been prepared. It is important to emphasis that this analysis is only intended to provide an indicator of the magnitude of overall impact of population growth on community facilities A detailed analysis of public service and facilities needs will be u-ndertaken in a later phase of the Comprehensive Planning Program. A. WATER SUPPLY The Planning Area's domestic and industrial water needs are currently being met by two basic sources: (1) The City of Wilmington is.served by a public treatment and distribution system which takes its raw water supply from the C ape Fear River some thirty miles above the city. (2) The unincorporated areas of the county are dependent upon ground water, either from individual wells or from private distribution systems. Recent engineering studies indicate that both of these water sources are limited. First, although an ample quantity of ground water is available 17 HAWAII SHORELINE EROSION MANAGEMENT STUDY VOLUME 11 APPENDICES CZIC FILE COPY FINAL REPORT JUNE the package treatment plants are also causing problems in that their effluents have forced the closing of shell-fishing waters. Engineers who are studying the sewage problems have determined that a centralized sewage collection and treatment system is required to alleviate probl ems stemming from current development and to prevent serious environmental damage from expected population increases. They recommend the connection of this system to Wilmington's existing sewage treatment plants which would require substantial increases in the capacities of these facilities.* C. HIGHWAY SYSTEM An examination of the Planning Area's highway system indicates that, with the exception of U.S. 421, all of its major roads are currently carrying traffic volumes which are either at or near their design capacity. In addition to extensive improvements in existing facilties which will be needed to accommodate the area's projected traffic volumes: 1. A circumferential freeway system. 2. A four-lane arterial running along the northern limit of Wilmington from U.S. Route 74 in the east to U.S. Route 117An the west. 3. A major four-lane arterial to the north of and parallel to Wrightsville Avenue. 4. A north-south connector from U.S. Route 117 north of Wilmington to Grace Street in the central city. 5. A new major north-south travel route in the city. These new facilities, along with required up-grading of existing facilities, have been projected to cost more than $100,000,000 over the next 20 years.** *Ibid. **Wilbur Smith andAssociates, "Wilmington Area Transportation Study", 1972. 19 D. SCHOOLS The New Hanover County Board of Education provides public educational services to the entire county. An analysis of the county's public schools revealed a current overall capacity for 26,305 students and a current enroll- ment of 20,435 students. The excess capacity of 5,870 represents a current utilization rate of approximately 78 percent. Three new schools are sched- uled to be in operation by September, 1976 raising the capacity to 29,269 students. School enrollment projections were made using the appropriate school age category from the population study. On a total classroom basis, no additional classrooms are required until after 1990. A summary of the public school analysis and projections are provided in Table 3. Table 3 SUMMARY OF PRESENT SCHOOL CAPACITY AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENT 1976-1977 1975-1976 School Year School Year Projected Enrollment Excess + Deficit(-) Percent Grades Enrolled Ca acity Capacity Utilization Capacity 1980 1990 2000 K-4 7,257 95269 +2012 78.3 9,893 8,054 10,666 12,593 5-8 6,854 8,811 +1957 77.8 9,651 6,865 8,344 '10,371 9 1,684 2,520 +836 66.8 2,520 2,019 2,454 3,050 10-12 4,640 5,705 +1065. 81.3 7,205 6,030 5,902 7,818 TOTAL 20,435 1 26,305 1 +5870 1 77.7 1 29,269 1 22,968, 27,366, 33,832 @Ca 9 APPENDIX I REVIEW OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS The three population projections presented in Technical Report #1 were developed using the cohort-survival method which is widely regarded as the most reliable technique for projecting population for small areas. The cohort-survival method treats the three population growth variables births, deaths, and migration -- individually, making it possible to base projections on alternative assumptions. The three different cohort-survival projections, which are summarized in Table 1, are based on different assumptions regarding future migration rates and birth rates. Death rates were held constant for all three projections. The "Low Projection" is based on the migration rates experienced between 1960 and 1970 and the relatively low birth rates experienced since 1970. This projection does not account for the growth surge experienced during the late 1960's and early 1970's. The "Intermediate Projection" assumes that both the migration and birth rates experienced between 1960 and 1970 will remain constant. This projection does not consider the recent growth trends or the trend toward lower birth rates. The "High Projection" uses the most recent data of the three projections. Assumed migration rates are those experienced between 1970 and 1974, and the birth rates utilized in the projection reflect the recent downward trend. While this projection is bas-ed on the most recent data, it is emphasized that these data were collected over a very short time-interval.and may, therefore, reflect an erroneous trend. TABLE 1 ALTERNATIVE POPULATION PROJECTIONS Estimated Population Growth Rate 1980 1990 2000 Low 94,000 108,000 123,000 Intermediate 98,000 1,17,000 1.40,000 High 101,000 125,000 151,000 Source: Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Department. APPENDIX A FEDERAL REGISTER Part 330, NATIONWIDE PERMITS CD @ (3560F0.70)(Mn) Where CD = Capital costs for"distribution F = Family units per square mile Mn = Number of square miles developed at each population level. Based on two assumed development densities (compact at 2 dwellings per acre and dispersed at 0.5 dwellings per acre), the following values have been used to estimate distribution costs: Families Per Square Miles Population Families Square Mile Required Level Served Compact Dispersed Compact Dispersed Low 7,000 1280 320 5.5 22.0 Moderate 11,250 1280 .320 8.8 35.2 High 14,000 320 11.0 43.8 b.) Operating and Maintenance Costs The Research Triangle Institute report recommends using a value of 10 percent of the capital for distribution as an estimate of annual operating and maintenance costs. B. WASTE WATER COLLECTION AND TREATMENT 1. Treatment a.) Capital Costs The cost estimating relationship for the capital costs of a sewage treatment plant is as follows: CT = 440P 0.77 (1.121) Where P = the population served. CT* = Treatment plant capital cost. b.) Operating Costs Operation and maintenance costs are affected by the size of the treatment plant. Manpower requirements can be reduced through automation; bulk supplies are cheaper than small quantities. However the effect of economics of scale can only be realized through increases in capital cost. A value of 5 percent of total capital costs has been used for estimating operation and maintenance costs for the sewage treatment plant. t -7 41254 Federal Register / Vol. 51, No. 219 / Thursday, November 13, 1986 / Rules and Regulations (vii) Description of improvements Department, whether such ti ~2p~ mod~i~r~catio~s, ~V~ any. to the nationwide navigation not listed in paragraph (c)(5) within or outside the navig~:~b~ql~t ~~rre~acs~c~)~r permits can be ob~t~a'~qined from the of this section: (c) Specific inquiries regarding the appropriate district engineer. (4) Nature and location of significant jurisdiction of the Corps of Enginee ~qj Nationwide permits are designed to obstructions to navigation in portions of can be answered only after a I allow certain activities to occur with the waterbody used or potentially determination whether (1) the w ers little, if ~anv, delay or paperwork. capable of use in interstate commerce: are navigable waters of the U~ni d Na~t~qionw~6q4e permits are valid only if ~th~c~- (5) Authorized projects: States or (2) if not navigable, ether conditions applicable to the nat~qion~i~v~ide (~i)~Natu~re, condition and location of the proposed type of activity ay permits are met. Failure to comply with any improvements made under projects nevertheless so affect the na i8able a condition does not necessarily mean authorized by Congress- waters of the United States at t~qhe the activity cannot be authorized but (ii) Description of projects authorized assertion of regu~q]Rtory ju ~' diction is rather that the activity can only be but not constructed: -its deemed necessary. authorized by an individual or regional (~i~ii) list of known survey docum~e, permit. Sex-era] of the nationwide or reports describing the w~a~qterbod~y: ~qJ 329.16 Use and ma~in~t nc~e of lists of permits require notification to the (6) Past or present interstate determinations. district engineer prior to commencement commerce: (a) Tabulated lists f final of the authorized activity. The (~j) General typ~ps. extent, ~a~nd period in determinations of n ~qi~qg~abil~qi~qty are to be procedures for this notification are time-. maintained in ea~c ~qistrict office, and located at ~q1330.7 of this Part. ~s (ii) Documentation if necessary: be updated as ne ss~qit~a~ted by court Nationwide permits ca~'n be issued to (7) Potential use for interstate uri~s ~qi satisfy the requirements of section ~q10 of decisions, jur~i~sd t~ional inquiries. or commerce, if applicable: other changed nditio~ns. the Rivers and H~arb~O~Y'~s Act of 18~99. (~i) If in n~a~lu~r-~a~ql condition. (b~q) It shoul e noted that the lists section 404 of the Clean Water Act, (~ii) If improved: represent on those wate~rbodie~s for and for section 103 of the Marine ~ (8) Nature of jurisdiction known to which deter ina~tions have been made; ~qP~r~ot~lection, Research and Sanctuaries have been exercised by Federal absence f~r that list should not be Act. The applicable authority is gencies if any: taken as indication that the indicated at ~the ~e~rd of each nationwide (~) State or Federal court decisions ~qw ~4 rbo is not navigable. permit. relating to ~n~av~qi~qga~qb~qi~l~l~i~fy of ~the (c) D et~qions from the list are not a w~terb~dy, if an~qy: ~autho zed. If a change in status of a ~q�330.2 Definitions. (10) Remarks: wate ody from navigable to non- (a) The definitions of 33 ~8qCFR Parts (11) Finding of r~i~d~-vi~qga~qb~qi~qli~ly (with date) nav~* able is deemed necessa~r~@y, an 321~-329 are applicable to the terms u~s~vd and recommendation for determination: up ~ated finding should be forwarded to in this Part. ~132~.15 Inquiries regarding division engineer; changes are not ~q@b) The term "headwaters" means the ns~qidered f~qi~i~2qZ until a determination determinations, by the ~qd~i~v~qi point on a non-tidal stream above which (a) Findings and determinations the av~e~ir~age annual flow is less than five should be made whenever a question PART 330~q-NATIONWIDE PERMITS cubic feet per second. The district arises regarding the navigability of a engineer may estimate this point f~rorn w~terb~dy. Where no determination h Sec. available data by using~t~q@e mean annual been made, a report of findi s will b 330.1 Gener~t~il. area precipitation, area drainage basin 330.2 Definitions. prepared and forwarded to ~0q1~q1~,~qg~e divis~' n 330.3 Activities o~c~cur~in~g before c~er~l~a~in maps, and the average runoff coefficient. engineer, as described ab ~a. ~qI~nq dates. or by similar means. For streams that ~0~% rim u~qi~2qtes ~1~10A Public notice, may be answered by an ~qinte re~i y are dry for long periods of t~qhe year, which indicates that a final ~agen ~, 330.5 Nationwide permits. district engineers may establish the determination ~rust be made by ~a 330.~6 Management practices. "headwaters" as that point on the division engineer. If a need de~v lops for 330.7 Notification Procedures. stream where a flow of five cubic feet an energen~c~qy determination, ~s~t~-~r~ict 330.8 Discretionary Authority~. per second is equaled or exceeded 50 engineers may act in rel~i~a ~,an a330~.~9 State water quality certification. percent of ~qt~qhe time. finding prepared as in ~qSecti n 3~-9~9.14 of 330~.~!~0 Coastal Zone Management (c) Discretionary authority means the this Part. The report of fin ~Ing~s should ~ consistency determination. authority delegated to division engineers 3.~30.11 Nationwide permit verification. then be forwarded to the iv~qis~qion 330.12 Expiration of nationwide permits. in ~q1330.8 of this part to override engineer on an expedite basis. Authority: 33 U~.S.C. 401 et seq.; 33 U.S.C~. provisions of nationwide permits, to add (b) Wh d !ermine ons have been 1~3~q"~; 33 U.S.C. 1413. regional conditions, or to require ,ere et~qi~6qX~in made b ~'e~qh~qe die 'on ~qgineer, inquiries individual permit application. ~y ~" ~' ~s regarding ~t~qhe nuv~,~,~q!~q8~O~n~j ~qi ~*~q@~y of specific ~qJ 330.1 General. f 330.3 Activities occurring before certain portions of w~ql~et~aet~rbo imes co~qb~vered by The purpose of this regulation is to n i i I _~qy dates. these determ~qi ~c e answered describe the Department of the A~rmy~*s as follows: (DA) nationwide permit program and to The following activil~qies were This D~qep~qar~0qim t~q, in the list all current nationwide permits which permitted by nationwide permits issued administration f the laws enacted by have been issued by publication herein. on July 19, 1977, and unless modified do Congress for ~qa protection a~qnd A nationwide permit is a form/of general not require further permitting: preservation f t~36qA navigable waters ~qo~4qf permit which may authorize activities (a) Discharges of dredged or fill the United ~qa~0qte~qs, has determined that throughout the nation. (Another type of material into waters of the United States ~q[R~2qi er) (~2qBa~4qy) (Lake, etc.) is a general permit is a "regional permit" outside the limits of navigable waters of n~ev~qi~qgab~ql~q, water of the United States and is issued by division or district the United States that occurred before from to Actions which engineers on a regional basis in the phase-in dates which begar. July 25, a D e~-s ~0 ~qep ~stra r ~6~q8 for ~q,~qn ~6qm ~qa p t ~qr ~n ~qr ~qm a I e ~i~n e a a ~0 d I d ~n e d ~qb ~r e ~n ~q'~_ ~q0~q' a ~ao y ~C~u ~1~1~1~1~t e ~2q/~nn S e~ct~) n 32~9 fI g n nsh ~t~qh~.~.~. e~"~r~"~O~' te b~a~s~qis.~, a ~ons haveI .~q8in~ee r~,~qi~nq ~q1~;~.t~v~, of 'I) ~c~qi~, e ~0q1~6qh ~rva tion f ni~qted ~qt~qa~0qte~qs~q, I ~q(R~qI er) ~6q(~2q1~8q3a~q% ~ab ~0qW~q' ter of to_ ~qy ~qr~q,~q% ~qj modif r otherwise affect those waters accordance with 33 C~8qFR Part 325). 1975, and extended section 404 are ~su ~qject to th~qajur~8qisd~4qiction of this Copies of regional conditions and jurisdiction to all waters of the United ~0 Federal Register 1~ Vol. 51, No. 219 / Thursday, November 13, 1986 Rules and Regulations ~ 41255 States. (These phase-in dates are: After . (~~)Th~ repair, rehabilitation, or separation scheme (where such limits July 25, 1~97~s~. discharges nto navigable replacement of any previously have not been designated or where adjacent wetlands; after September 1. structure or fill, or of any currently engineers will consider recommending waters of the United States and authorized, currently serviceable, changes are anticipated, district 1976. discharges into navigable waters serviceable structure or fill constructed the discretionary authority provided by of the United States and their primary prior to the requirement for 330.8 of &is Part, and further subject to tributaries, including adjacent wetlands. authorization, provided such repair, the provisions of the fairway regulations and into natural lakes, greater than 5 rehabilitation, or replacement does not in 33 CFR 322.5~q(1~q) (Section 10). acres i~n surface area; and after July 1. result in a deviation from the plans of (~q9) Structures placed within anchorage 1977, discharges into all waters of t~qhe the original structure or fill, and further or fleeting areas to facilitate moorage of United States.) (Section 404) provided that the structure or fill h~as not vessels where such areas have been ~8qN Structures or work completed been put to uses differing from uses established for that purpose by the U.S. before December 18,1968, or in specified for it in any permit authorizing Coast Guard. (Section 10) waterbod~qies over which the district Its original construction. Minor (10) Non-commerc~ial, ~s~qin~qg~qle~-boat. engineer had not asserted jurisdiction at deviations due to changes in materials mooring buoys. (Section 10) ~t~qhe time ~qt~qhe activity occurred provided, ~:~)r construction techniques and which (11) Temporary buoys and markers in both instances, there is no ire necessary to make repair. placed for recreational use such as interference with navigation. (Section rehabilitation, or replacement are water skiing and boat racing provided 10) permitted. Maintenance dredging and that the buoy or marker Is removed be~s~ic~qh restoration are not authorized by within 30 days after its use ~qhas been ~1330.4 Pub~0~c notice. &is nationwide permit. (Section 10 and discuntinued.~2qAt Corps of Engineers (a) Chief of Erg~qin~e~er~v. Upon proposed 404) reservoirs, ~t~qhe reservoir manager must Issuance of new nationwide permits, (4) Fish and wildlife harvesting approve each buoy or marker modification to. or re~qissu~ance of, devices and activities such as pound individually. (Section 10) existing nationwide permits, the Chief Of nets, crab traps, eel pots, lobster traps, (12) Disc~ql~iar~qge of material for backfill Engineers will publish a notice in the duck blinds, and clam and oyster ~0 or bedding for utility lines. including Federal Register seeking public d~i~qg~qg~qi~a~qg. (Section 10) ou~tfall a~nd intake structures, provided ~in~qg the opportunity comments and includ (~q5) Staff gages, tide gages, water there is no change in preconstruction for a public hearing. This not-Ace will re~co~rdi~r~qg devices, water quality testing bottom contours (excess material must state the availability of information at and improvement devices. and similar be removed to an upland disposal area). the Office of the Chief of En~qg~fneers and scientific structures. (Section 10) A "utility lire" is defined as any pipe ~qor at all d~;s~qt~lict offices which reveals the (6) Survey activities including core pipeline for ~qL~q1~;e transportation of an Corps' provisional d~eter~qmi~rati~on that ~E~amp~qlin~qg~, seismic exploratory ~aseous, ~qI~;~qqu~*d, liqui~qriable, or slurry ~qy the proposed acti~vi~t~les ~co~i~nply with ~qLie operations, and plugging of seismic shot ~0 ~q:ubs~qtance~', f~o~.~.r any purpose, and any requirements for issuance under general ~qlio~q!~e~i~ and other exp~l~ord~qtory-typ~e bore cable. line, or wire for the transmission it ~au~l ~o~l p~Er~:n~, ~t~qhority. Chief of Engineers holes. Drilling of ex 'oration-type bore I for arty purpose ~a~- electrical energy. Will prepare ~"~)~,~,~is information w~q1~i~qich will h~ole~v for oil a~in~qd ~qS~d~s ~aot- telephone and telegraph messages, and be ~supp~ql~e~nne~nt~ed~, if ~i~ni~qppropr~i~2qWe, by a~t~st~l~4~or~i~7~ed by this nationwide per~n~u~t; radio and tel~evis~qi~cn co~qmm~un~qica~qf~qion. d~qi~v~-s~i~on en~qg~i~nE~er~s. the plugging ~Of such holes is.a~0qw~thorized. (The utility line and ou~tf~all and intake (b) District engineers. Concurrent (Se~qE~i~ql~qw~i~a~i ~qW kind s~tr~uct~u~'res will require a Section 10 ~~~v~qith publication i~r ~t~qhe Federal Re~l-~i~st~ar (7) O~utfall structures and associated permit if in navigable waters o~qf ~qt~qhe Elf proposed., new, or reissued intake s~qt~r~uctu~ies where the effluent from United States. See 33 C~qFR Part 322. See ~~@~a~t~qio~nwide permits by the Chief of ~' that DUt~qf~Z~-~ql~ql has been permitted under also paragraph (a)(7) of this section). ~qK~ig~qin~ee~rs~, district engineers will so the National Pollutant Discharge ~~ ~. by an Elirn ination System program (Section ~ot~:~,~'y the k~n~o~%M~' ~qi~r~!~er~qested public (S~a~o~, on 40~4) ~~pp~ropri~ate notice. The notice will 402 of ~qt~qhe CleanWater Act) (see 40 CF~qR (13) Bank stabilization activities in~-~qd~jud~e regional conditions, if any, Part 122) pro~-~qdd~ed that the district or provided: developed by the division engineer. division engineer makes a determination (~qI) The bank stabilization activity Is that the individual and cumulative less than 5~0qW feet in length; 330.~5 N~a~0qf~0qtnw~i~qd~e permits. adverse environmental effects of the (ii) The activity is necessary for (a) Authorized activities. ~8qT~qhe structure itself are minimal in eroson prevention: following are hereby p~e~.~-~T~n~q!~tt~!~6qA 3c~ccrd~ance with ~q1330.7 ~q(c)~q(2) and ~q(d). (~qf~qli) The activity is limited to less than provided thc~qY the conditi~qo~qf~qi~s ~qh~s~q'~i ~q3 ~qInt~e~ql~ce structures per se are not an average of one cubic yard p~qer in paragraph ~q(b) of this section a~nd, inc~ql~uded-~-only those directly associated running foot placed along the bank where required, comply with the with an ou~tfall structure are covered by within waters of the United States; notification procedures, of ~q1330~-7~. th ~.s~nationwide permit. This permit (iv) No materia~qtis placed in excess of ~q(1) The placement of aids to includes minor excavation, filling and the minimum needed for erosion navigation and regulatory markers other work associated with installation protection; which are approved by and Installed in of the intake and outfa~qll structures. (v) No material Is placed in any accordance with the requirements of t~0qhe (Sections 10 and 404) wetland area; U.S. Coast Guard (33 CFR Part ~4q68, (8~6q) Structures for the exploration, (v~8qi) No material is placed in any Subchapter C). (Section 10) production, and transportation of oil, location or in any manner so a~qs t~qo (2) Structures constructed in artificial gas, and minerals on the outer impair surface water flow into or out of n~0qtial continental shelf within areas leased for any wetland area; canals within principally reside, developments where the connection of such purposes by the Department of (Vill Only clean material free of waste the canal to a navigable water of the Inte:~qr~2qior, Mineral Management Service, metal products, organic materials, United States has been previously provided those structures are not placed unsightly debris, etc. is used; and authorized (see 33 C~2qF~16qR Part 322.5~4q(~2qg~0q)~0q). wit~20qHn the limits of any designated (v~2qiii) The activity is a single and (Section io~4q) shipping safety fairway or traffic complete project. (Sections ~0q20 and 404~0q) 0 -wilm ngton newhanmr comprebensive planniong prognin analust's of selAio, tank limitations IP S TD H 177 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION .................................. ................. 1 DIMENSIONS OF THE SEPTIC TANK PROBLEM ......................... 2 A. EXTENT OF PROBLEM ......................................... 2 B. SEPTIC TANK SUITABILITY.@ .................................. 2 C. SEPTIC TANK FAILURE ....................................... 3 D. IMPACT OF SEPTIC TANK LIMITATIONS ON GROWTH ............... 4 RECOMMENDED ACTIONS ........................................... 5 I. INTRODUCTION The problem of septic tanks and sewage disposal was discussed generally in Technical Report #2 which analyzed existing land use. Since completion of that planning study, however, the Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) has expressed an expanded interest in the relationships between population, septic tanks, and water quality. In a recent memorandum (March 29, 1976), T.D. Eure, Chairman of the CRC, expressed the Commission's concern as follows: "...the Coastal Resources Commission became concerned during its review of draft Land Use Plans submitted in November that some of-the plans did not give adequate attention to the capability of the land and water resources of the area to sustain projected growth. The Commission was particularly concerned that local governments address in their plans the effects of growth on water quality and water availability i.n, their jurisdictions. A special concern was that problems associated with waste disposal be more fully dealt with especially problems associated with the increasing use of septic tank sewage disposal systems in fragile coastal areas. This latter issue has subsequently come to be commonly referred to as the Iseptic tank problem'. Within the limits of its legal authority, the Commission is attempting to deal with these problems. However, the role which the Commission can play at this time is somewhat limited. During the land use planning phase of the implementation of CAMA, the Commission's main prerogative in this regard is to insure that the local Planning jurisdictions address in their plans the problems associated with the capabilities of the land and water resources to support projected growth, e.g. to address problems related to the proliferation of septic tank systems in coastal developments where local soil and water conditions make their use unsuitable". The suitability of the land for the installation of septic tanks was a specific consideration in the overall analysis of the capability of the Planning Area's land to support development (Technical Report #3). However, considering the expanded concern of the CRC and the fact that septic tanks are an important planning issue in the Wilmington-New Hanover Planning Area, this report has been prepared to insure that citizens and public officials are fully aware of the extent of the septic tank problem and its implications for the future. II. DIMENSIONS OF THE SEPTIC TANK PROBLEM A. EXTENT OF PROBLEM Septic tanks present a definite problem in the Planning Area. According to a recent engineering report,* pollution caused by septic tanks and agri- cultural runoff have been instrumental in the closing of extensive areas of New Hanover County to shellfishing (Map 1). The closure of these areas to shellfish harvesting represents a tangible loss in economic terms as well as a loss in terms of the recreational pursuits of many county residents. In addition, the report identifies at least nineteen residential sub- divisions within the Planning Area which presently experience chronic septic tank problems (Map 2). B. SEPTIC TANK SUITABILITY Poor soil cha racteristics throughout most of the Planning Area and a generally high water table through much of the year are at the base of most of the areals sept.ic tank problems. These conditions tend to make conventional septic tank sewage disposal systems environmentally unsuited for use in urban- level development.** A majority of the soils found in the Planning Area are not suitable for sewage disposal by conventional septic tank systems. According to the recent New Hanover County Soil Survey, it is estimated that 75 percent (87,000 acres) of the land area is unsuited for the use of conventional septic tank systems. *Henry Von Oesen and Associates, "Greater.Wilmington Area 201 Facilities Plan", November 1975, (DRAFT). **Amos Dawson, "A Report on Legal Authorities Pertaining to the Regulation of Septic Tanks in the Coastal Area of North Carolina", N.C. Office of Marine Affairs. Within these unsuited areas, there is a very high probability that the systems will fail within the first year's use. C. SEPTIC TANK FAILURE It is important to discuss what constitutes septic tank failure. There is a common misconception that if septic tank effluent does not appear on the ground surface, then the system is functioning properly. Indeed surface "breakouts" are a serious aspect of septic tank failure. When effluent appears on the ground, it constitutes a health hazard, and it may also be washed into nearby streams, contributing to the pollution of the area's surface waters. However, there is a more subtle aspect of septic tank failure. On some sites, the septic tanks "function" by injecting untreated wastes into shallow ,groundwaters (generally sand acquifers). These soils are able to Acdept the sewage load, but offer poor treatment of the waste. Studies have shown a saturated sand to be only about 1 percent as effective in removing fecal coli- form bacteria as soil of the same texture under dry, aerobic, intermittant flow conditions.* When untreated septic wastes are injected direcly into shallow groundwater, most of the resulting pollution remains within the upper few feet of the water table. The polluted groundwater then flows laterally and discharges into streams, sounds, and other surface water bodies, and usually causes deterioration of the surface water quality. Thus, improperly treated septic wastes contribute to the degradation of both groundwater and surface water.** *B.L. Carlile, "Alternatives for Onsite Sewage Disposal in Eastern North Carolina", North Carolina State University Soil Science Department. **Dawson, "Regulation of Septic Tanks". 3 APPENDIX B CHAPTER 205A, HAWAII REVISED STATUTES COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT AND H.B. 1902 III. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS In view of the Planning Area's existi ng septic tank problems and the severe development constraints presented by the soil conditions, it is clear that both City Council and County Commissioners must take every feasible action to insure implementation of the "201 Facilities Plan" for the Greater Wilmington Area which is currently being reviewed by state and federal agencies. This plan would provide centralized facilities with the capacity to eventually ,provide sewage collection, treatment, and disposal services to most of the Planning Area. Implementation of the "201 Plan" would address existing septic tank problems on a priority basis, but it would also prevent additional water pollution problems from further development. Centralized sewerage facilities are not, however, an immediate so'lkion to the Planning Area's water quality problems., Some pessimistic estimates place the first phase of the '1201 Facilities Plan" at least ten years away. Therefore, interim measures are required to insure that further development using on-site sewage disposal does not further degradate the quality of the Planning Area's surface .and groundwater resources. The New Hanover County Board of Health has adopted one of the most stringent septic tank ordinances of any North Carolina coastal county. However, during the implementation phase of the land use planning program, at least three major aspects of this ordinance should be reviewed: 1. "Grandfather" clause -- Section 3.312 of the septic tank ordinance allows the Health Director to grant septic tank permits to substandard (soil conditions and dimensions) lots which were platted before the effective date of the ordinance. In at least one area of the county, septic tank permits are being issued for 5000 square foot lots which have "very severe" rated soil types. This practice, in the opinion of the Planning Staff, is questionable. 5 2. Minimum setbacks -- The existing ordinance requires that every septic tank system be located at least 25 feet from any canal or stream, at least 50 feet from any water supply. Some authorities, however, recom- mend setbacks of 100 to 150 feet from estuarine waters (N.C. Division of Marine Fisheries, and John Clark in Coastal Ecosystems). Therefore, the setback require- ment for septic tank systems should be reviewed. 3. Minimum lot sizes -- Where soil conditions are favor- able, the septic tank ordinance permits septic systems on 15,000 sq. ft. lots. However, opinions expressed by sanitory engineers from the N.C. Division of Environmental Management (Coastal Resources Commission Memorandum of March 29, 1976) indicate that widespread development of septic tanks at this density may result in the pollution of ground and surface water. In addition to reviewing these provisions of the Board of Health Septic Tank Ordinance, it is important to insure that the Planning Area's land use policies complement the septic tank ordinance in the proper regulation of septic tanks. Specifically, it is essential to insure that the density of development using on-site sewage disposal methods is consistant with the capability of the land. Basically, it is necessary for the area's land use policies, as expressed in various land use and development ordinances, to go beyond the issue@of public health, which is the main focus of the Board of Health ordinance, to a broader objective of maintaining and improving water quality. 6