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		<mainTitle nfc="4"><title>The growth shapers</title>:<titleExt>the land use impacts of infrastructure investments</titleExt>/<respStmt>prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality by Urban Systems Research &amp; Engineerings, inc.</respStmt></mainTitle>
	</titleStmt>
	<authorStmt>
		<corpAuthor mainEntry="y"><name>Urban Systems Research &amp; Engineering.</name></corpAuthor>
		<corpAuthor><name>Council on Environmental Quality (U.S.)</name></corpAuthor>
	</authorStmt>
	<imprint><pubPlace>Washington</pubPlace>:<pubName>CEQ : for sale by the Supt. of Docs., U.S. G.P.O.</pubName>,<pubDate>1976.</pubDate></imprint>
	<classStmt>
		<locClass>
			<subject cat="top">Land use</subject>
			<subject cat="geo">United States.</subject>
		</locClass>
		<locClass>
			<subject cat="top">Public works</subject>
			<subject cat="geo">United States.</subject>
		</locClass>
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<text xml:space="preserve">
<pb n="1" />

             Coastal Zone
             Information
               Ce t

                            py
                                 MR.

                                                               6&amp;v

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                  HD
                  255
                  - U7
                 1976
                 c. 2
                           i';Mst of Infrastructure nw-MORM,

                                    on Environmental Qun"L

   AL
<pb n="2" />

                        Other CEQ Land Use Publications

                        Available at
                        U.S. Government Printing Office:

                        Untaxing Open Space     An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Differential
                             Assessment of Firms and Open Space
                                Executive Summary
                                Analysis
                        by the Regional Science Research Institute, 1976
                        Recreation on'Water Supply Reservoirs: A Handbook for Increased Use, by
                             Urban Systems Research and Engineering, Inc., 1975
                        The Delaware River Basin-An Environmental Assessment of Three Centuries
                             of Change, 1975
                        Land Use (Reprinted from the Fifth Annual Report of the Council on Environ-
                             mental Quality),  1974
                        Potential Onshore Effects of Oil and Gas Production on the Atlantic and Gulf
                             of Alaska Outer Continental Shelf, Volume IV of OCS Oil and Gas-An
                             Environmental Assessment, by Resource Planning Associates, Inc., and
                             David M. Dornbusch &amp; Co., 1974
                        The Costs of Sprawl:. Environmental    and Economic Costs of Alternative De-
                               velopment Patterns at the Urban Fringe
                             Executive Summary
                             Detailed Cost Analysis
                             Literature Review and Bibliography
                        prepared for CEQ, HUD, and EPA by Real Estate Research Corporation, 1974
                        The Taking Issue-An Analysis of the Constitutional Limits of Land Use
                             Control, by Fred Bosselman, David Callies, and John Banta, 1973

                        The Quiet Revolution in Land Use Control-Summary Report, by Fred Bossel-
                             man and David Callies, 1971

                        Available at
                        National Technical Information Service
                        U.S. Department of Commerce:

                        Interceptor Sewers and Suburban Sprawl
                             Volume 1: Analysis
                             Volume 2: Case Studies
                        by Urban Systems Research and Engineering, Inc., 1974
                        Recreational Properties: An Analysis of the Markets for Privately Owned
                             Recreational Lots and Leisure Homes, by Richard L. Ragatz Associates,
                             Inc., 1974
                        Total Urban Water Pollution Loads: The Impact of Storm Water, by Enviro Con-
                             trol, Inc., 1974
                        Potential Onshore Effects of Deepwater Oil Terminal-Related Industrial
                             Development
                             Volume 1: Executive Summary
                             Volume II: Mid-Atlantic Region and Maine
                             Volume III: Gulf Coast Region
                             Volume IV: Appendices
                        by Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1973
                        Land Use Change and Environmental Quality in Urban Areas: Some Com-
                             parative Studies (Denver, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Baltimore, River-
                             side/San Bernardino), by Earth Satellite Corporation, 1973

                        In Preparation:

                        Leisure homes and recreational properties
                        Land use impacts of federal taxes
                        Energy consumption and land use
                        Land use inside cities
                        Costs of metropolitan development patterns
<pb n="3" />

The Growth Shapers

The Land Use Impacts of Infrastructure Investments

Prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality
by Urban Systems Research &amp; Engineering, Inc.
May 1976

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA
COASTAL SERVICES CENTER
2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE
CHARLESTON, SC 29405-2413

Property of CSC Library
__________________________
For sole by the superintendant of Documents
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,D.C. 20402
Price $1.30
Stock No. 041-011-00029-7

HD255,u7 1976 c.2

                                                                    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA
                                                         COASTAL SERVICES CENTER
                                                         2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE
                                                                                   SC 29405-2413

                                                             Property of CSC Library

               For sale by the Superintendent of Documents
               U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402
               Price $1.30
               Stock No. 041-011-00029-7
<pb n="4" />

                                  Preface

                                       As part of its continuing analysis
                                  of land use issues, the Council on Envi-
                                  ronmental Quality is pleased to publish
                                  this handbook on the land use impacts of
                                  infrastructure investments.
                                       As documented in another recent
                                  CEQ-funded study, The Costs of Sprawl,
                                  the pattern of land development has a
                                  substantial impact on the resulting envi-
                                  rom-nental, economic, natural resource,
                                  and social costs. And as has been pointed
                                  out in. numerous publications, including
                                  the chapter on land use in our 1974
                                  Annual Report, public works investments
                                  are major determinants of land use
                                  patterns.
                                       This is an issue the CEQ believes
                                  should be given much greater attention,
                                  particularly in terms of those investments
                                  substantially subsidized by the Federal
                                  Government. Federal monies fund 90
                                  percent of interstate highway construc-
                                  tion, up to 80 percent of mass transit
                                  investments, 75 percent of the cost of
                                  interceptor sewers and treatment plants,
                                  and 70 percent of non-interstate high-
                                  ways. All of these, as pointed out in this
                                  handbook, have substantial impacts on
                                  the location, pattern, timing, and density
                                  of development. We believe that these
                                  impacts should be recognized by project
                                  planners, local officials, and the con-
                                  cerned public, and that they should be
                                  carefully analyzed in the impact state-
                                  ments and other environmental analyses
                                  prepared for the projects. This handbook
                                  and other research CEQ is sponsoring on
                                  secondary effects is designed to help
                                  attain this goal.

                                  Russell W. Peterson

                                  Chairman
                                  Council on Environmental Quality
<pb n="5" />

                      Contents

                                       Introduction
                                       1. The Problem                                              8
                                          The Impacts of Induced Development                       8
                                          Infrastructure Investments and Land
                                             Use Changes                                         18
                                          Estimating What Development Will
                                             Occur                                               22
                                          Controlling the Impacts of Induced
                                              Development
                                       2. Highways
                                          Defining the Impact Area                               31
                                          The Supply of Developable Land                         33
                                          Demand for Development                                 34
                                          Forecasting Secondary Effects                          35
                                          The Resulting Impacts                                  37
                                          Controlling the Effects                                37
                                          Further Sources                                        38
                                       3. Mass Transit                                           40
                                          Defining the Impact Area                               42
                                          The Supply of Developable Land                         42
                                          Demand for Development                                 43
                                          Forecasting Secondary Effects                          44
                                          The Resulting Impacts                                  45
                                          Controlling the Effects                                46
                                          Further Sources                                        46
                                       4. Sewers                                                 48
                                          Defining the Impact Area                               51
                                          The Supply of Developable Land                         52
                                          Demand for Development                                 53
                                          Forecasting Secondary Effects                          53
                                          The Resulting Impacts                                  54
                                          Controlling the Effects                                55
                                          Further Sources                                        57
                                       5. Other Infrastructure Investments                       58
                                          Airports                                               59
                                          Industrial and Commercial Centers                      61
                                          Recreation and Entertainment
                                          Facilities                                             63
                                          Mining and Energy Facilities                           64
                                          Dams and Flood Control Facilities                      66
                                          Further Sources                                        67
                                       Appendix                                                  68
                                          General Data and Research Sources                      68
                                       Bibliography                                              70
<pb n="6" />

             Introduction

                  This book examines the major role             defeat long term community goals.
             which many public facilities, termed               Schools and municipal services must be
             "infrastructure" investments, play in the          hastily provided, and local tax rates are
             local development process. It covers such          forced up. Haphazard, ill-planned sub-
             facilities as water and wastewater sys-            divisions and shopping centers degrade
             tems, power supplies, highway and sec-             the local environment.
             ondary road networks, mass transit sys-                The last quarter of this century is
             tems, and airports. Such investments               likely to see continued urban growth and
             affect local growth by influencing the             continued suburbanization converting
             location and costs of new construction,            rural land to residential subdivisions.
             and can have a- powerful effect on the             But new trends are emerging. Changing
             density, timing, andlamount of new                 consumer, preferences, rising housing
             development.
                                                                prices, and national resource shortages
                  For example' the@ route of ..a new           -.-are. encouraging the development of
             highw ay may lie hear a tract-of open              more clustered. and higher density com-
             farmland, putting that farmland within             munities. It is important that infrastruc-
             commuting distance of a city. The land             ture investments be designed to enhance
             soon becomes developed with single                 the positive features of new trends in
             family housing because the new highway             development. At the least, local decision-
             makes it into a suitable residential loca-         makers should be aware of the land use
             tion. Similarly, a sewer built on unde-            implications of their infrastructure in-
             veloped land relieves developers of the            vestment decisions, and the economic
             costs of providing wastewater treatment,           and environmental impacts likely to
             and makes housing cheaper to build.                follow.
             Subdivisions are laid out near the new                 The link between infrastructure in-
             sewer because potential builders' profits          vestments and land use changes has long
             are higher there. In both cases, growth            been recognized in a general way, but
             seems to be created by the installation of         little has been done to control the design
             new infrastructure; actually, the infra-           and location of new infrastructure. In-
             structure merely concentrates growth               stead, the tactic has been to attempt to
             which might otherwise have been located            reduce the negative impacts of un-
             elsewhere in the region.                           planned growth with tools such as zon-
                  The careful design and construction           ing, subdivision controls, and local
             of infrastructure can help achieve well            planning. These techniques often fail,
             organized, environmentally sound urban             particularly when land use is changing
             growth. However, infrastructure plan-              rapidly, as it often does following con-
             ners do notusually consider the land use           struction of new infrastructure. Chang-
             effects of the investments. As a result,           ing the design of the infrastructure itself
             its construction often leads to unplanned          can be an effective additional control
             land use changes that can result in major          method, reinforcing the effectiveness
             economic and environmental impacts.                of the other land use controls.
                  The pace and pattern of develop-                I This handbook is intended to im-
             ment greatly affect a community's ability          prove understanding of the link between
             to accommodate growth without strain.              infrastructure and land use. Local elected
             Rapid, unplanned growth is often eco-              officials need to know what land use
             nomically inefficient and environmen-              changes an infrastructure investment
             tally destructive. Development may                 will provoke in their community, and
             occur at densities and in locations which          what the impacts of these changes will
<pb n="7" />

                                               BOW

                   13

                                                                   6ER

                                                                                    4c

                                                         ICE
<pb n="8" />

            be. Designers of the investments must be
            concerned with the secondary impacts of
            their facilities. Developers should look at
            induced land use, both-to see the real
            advantages of the infrastructure invest-
            ment to them, and to help minimize the
            adverse impacts of their projects.
                 This book will provide the concepts
            and practical suggestions for making
            these decisions. Chapter 1 discusses the
            general interactions of infrastructure and
            land use, provides a practical framework
            for forecasting these interactions, and
            describes methods for controlling sec-
            ondary effects. Chapters 2, 3, and 4,
            apply this framework to the analysis of
            three important types of public invest-
            ments: highways, mass transit facilities,
            and sewers. Finally, Chapter 5 broadens
            the perspective of the book to include
            consideration of airports, major employ-
            ment centers, recreational areas, flood
            control dams, and other developments
            which can also have powerful local land
            use effects.
<pb n="9" />

                   The Problem

                        The use of land is perhaps the most             mental impacts on communities. The im-
                   basic of all environmental issues. Sound             pacts vary according to how much devel-
                   land use is fundamental both to preserv-             opment occurs, the spatial pattern and
                   ing stable ecosystems and to controlling             density in which it emerges, the speed at
                   pollution, and even if such environmen-              which it progresses, and the natural
                   tal issues seem remote to the daily prob-            characteristics of the site. This section
                   lems of local governments, officials rec-            first reviews the major impacts associated
                   ognize the fundamental economic and                  with new residential development, with
                   social importance of proper land use.                particular attention to its distribution and
                        The construction of new highways,               pattern, and then comments on commer-
                   mass transit lines, sewers, and other                cial and industrial development.
                   infrastructure can have a powerful effect
                   on local land use. For example, most                 Economic Impacts of Residential
                   people are familiar with how the Inter-              Development
                   state Highway System has speeded
                   urban growth in the suburbs. The eco-                     Economic impacts of development
                   nomic and environmental impacts of                   are separated into costs that are privately
                   development induced by new infra-                    bome and costs paid by the government.
                   structure are of growing concern on all              The private costs of development depend
                   levels of government, for the direct local           priniarfly on the type of dwelling unit
                   benefits provided by infrastructure may              and the amount of amenities provided by
                   be seriously reduced or even out-                    the developer. In general, single-family
                   weighed by indirect impacts resulting                housing is much more expensive in its
                   from changes in local land use.                      capital and operating costs than multi-
                        These impacts are extensive and                 family housing. But, except for the prob-
                   often significant. Most represent real               lem of whether   'the community will con-
                   costs to the community - costs that may              tain sufficient medium and low cost
                   be reduced by proper land use controls               housing, the private costs of different
                   and by infrastructure planning. Others               development types do not concern mu-
                   may not be felt directly by the commu-               nicipal governments - consumers have
                   nities in which the growth occurs, but               every right to pay for the amenities they
                   they are felt somewhere, and the respon-             desire.
                   sibility for abating them remains                         Local governments do, however,
                   important.                                           have a legitimate concern regarding the
                        In the following pages, the impacts             public costs and revenue generated by a
                   of land use changes resulting from infra-            new development, and may wish to con-
                   structure investments will be discussed.             trol the amount, location, or pattern of
                   This will form a background for later                development, so that it does not severely
                   parts of the book, which consider the                strain municipal finances.
                   process by which land use changes occur                   A recent study of the average costs
                   and procedures for forecasting land use              of different development patterns
                   changes associated with particular infra-            showed that sprawl development - the
                   structure investments.                               low density unplanned "suburbia"'
                                                                        familiar across the country - is signifi-
                   The Impacts of Induced Development
                                                                        (opposite) Adapted from ne Costs of Sprawl by Real Estate
                                                                        Research Corporation, subsequently referred to as RERC. (All
                        Unplanned development can have                  illustrations are by Urban Systems Research and Engineering,
             8     serious economic, social, and environ-               Inc., unless otherwise noted.)
<pb n="10" />

                                                                                                                                                                                                 COMMUNITY PRO`rOTYPES - LEGEND
                                                                                                                    . . ........
                                                                                                                                             w
                                                                                                                          . .... ... . .

                                                                                                                                                                                                        VACANT LAND
                                                                                                                          kl

                                                                                               ::!tz;@    X

                                                                                                                                                                                                        PUBLIC FACILITIES

                                13                                                         u
                                13        13
                                                                                                                                                                                                        COMMERCIAL LAND

                                                                                                               L 0
                                                                                    Ij

                                                                                  L
                                                                                                                                                                                                        RECREATION AND
                                                                                                                                                                                                        OPEN SPACE
                                                      zlz,

                                                                                                                                                                                       F5               SCHOOLS

                                             . ..........

                                                                                                                                                                                                        SINGLE FAMILY CONVENTIONAL

                                                                                                                                 q
                                                                                                                                                    .............

                                                                                                     ............

                                                                                                                                                                                                        SINGLE FAMILY CLUSTERED
                                Fl

                                                                0

                                                                    i i;@.. P,
                                                                                                                                                                                                        TOWNHOUSES CLUSTERED

                                                                       LJ

                              ...............
                                                                                              CL
                                                                                                                                                                                                        WALK-UP APARTMENTS
                                                                                                        40F

                            ..........

                                ..           ...... .

                                                                                                                                                                                                          HIGH RISE APARTMENTS

                                                                        A

                                                                                                                                   ..............
                                                                                                                                     ..........
                                                                                                                          ...............

                                                                        .. ........
                                     T       k
                                                                                                                                                     .. .........

                                                                                                                                          . . . . . . . . . . . . .
                                                                                                   . . . . .                                                  . . . . . .
                                                                                                                                                . . . . ... . . . . . . . . .

                                                                                                                               . . . . . . . . . . . .
                                                                                                                                                   . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .

                                                                                                                                                                                2000 1000                      0                  2000 FEET
<pb n="11" />

                                                 PUBLIC COSTS OF DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS                                                                        PER CAPITA EXPENDITURES BY MUNICIPAL SIZE

                                                                                                                                                                   8 PER YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                    100
                                                       CAPITAL COS S                   OPERATING &amp; MAINTENANCE
                                                           (9 1000)                             IS )00/ YEAR)

                                               12                                                                                                                                                                           ........

                                               it
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LIS ARIES
                                               to                                                                                                                                                  ... ...
                                                                                                                                                                                                                X..
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SEWERAGE
                                               9
                                                                                                 X."                         LAND                                                                                                                  GENERAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GOVERNMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         J@Jjjff   SANI.TI.N
                                                                                                                             OPEN SPACE,
                                                                                                                             PUBLIC MCILITIES,                                                                        . .......
                                                                                                                                     VICES                           50-
                                            16
                                                                                                                             OR SERVI

                                                                                                                             STREETS   &amp; ROADS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   FIRE
                                               4

                                            o 3
                                                                                                                             UTILITIES                                                                                                             POLICE

                                               2

                                                                                          ... ...... .......

                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                             _jOO            100-200            20
                                                                                                                                                                       LESS THAN 50       50                                             0
                                                                                                                                                                                            POPULATION (THOUSANDS)

                                            cantly more expensive to service than                                                                              costs as communities grow. It addresses
                                            compact, planned development. Patterns                                                                             only average costs associated with dif-
                                            of development are defined by factors                                                                              ferent development patterns in a fixed-
                                            such as the number of units per acre, the                                                                          population community.
                                            mix of land uses, and the design and lay-                                                                                     The evidence on how public costs
                                            out of construction. The Costs of Sprawl                                                                           are affected by population growth is con-
                                            computed the component costs of ar-                                                                                flicting. It seems to depend very much
                                            ranging 10,000 units of suburban housing                                                                           on the particular characteristics of both
                                            in six different patterns, of which three                                                                          the community involved and the growth
                                            representative examples are shown                                                                                  that occurs. For large communities, sev-
                                            on the previous page.                                                                                              eral studies have indicated that most per
                                                     Each pattern serves the same number of                                                                    capita service costs rise rather than fall as
                                            people and has the same amount of com-                                                                             the communities get larger. The graph
                                            mercial space. The study simulated con-                                                                            above, developed from 1970-71 U.S.
                                            ditions on the developing urban fringe,                                                                            Census data, shows how per capita costs
                                            and the "high density" option is not very                                                                          change with overall community size.
                                            high - it includes single-family homes,                                                                            There is no clear indication why this
                                            no building has more than six stories,                                                                             trend exists, but it does suggest that, for
                                            and the average density is three dwelling                                                                          whatever the reason, as communities
                                            units per gross acre.                                                                                              become urbanized, their service costs per
                                                     Average public cost breakdowns of                                                                         capita will rise.
                                            the study are shown above. It is dear that                                                                                    For smaller communities, on the
                                            most of the cost difference between com-                                                                           other hand, average costs may fall with
                                            munity types is taken up in greater street                                                                         further development as facilities become
                                            and road costs for low density develop-                                                                            used to capacity. One police car or fire
                                            ment, but all costs except the capital cost                                                                        station may be able to handle more
                                            of land are uniformly higher as develop-                                                                              left ) Source: RERC
                                            ment is spread out.                                                                                                (above) Source           I: Adapted from material in Fiscal Impacts of
                                                      The Costs of Sprawl does not deal                                                                        Land Development by Thomas Muller, published by the Urban
                           10               with changes in per capita public service                                                                          Institute.
<pb n="12" />

                   Large amounts of growth occurred              years. The town is planning to close five
             in Lexington, Massachusetts, in the                 of its older schools by 1980, partially
             1950's, when Route 128 was made into                because of declining birth rates, but also
             a major circumferential highway. Sev-               as a result of changing age structure.
             eral schools were built for the children
             of new residents. Now the population
             is getting older, new construction has.
             slowed as the town becomes fulll and
             the schools are emptying. In 196     0,21
             percent of the population was in the
             child bearing years between 25 and
             40; in 1970, this had dropped.,to @k7.
             percent.
                  The figure on the following p'    age
             shows what this has done to elementary
             school enrollments over the past 20

           people without reducing service quality,              high public costs, since utility lines,
           while splitting the costs over the larger             streets, and services must be extended
           population. With extensive growth,                    long distances through vacant land. Even
           however, the additional people are likely             if the intervening land is ultimately filled
           to require new schools, fire houses,                  in, the community must bear unneces-
           police stations, and the like, and tax rates          sarily high service costs in the interim.
           are likely to rise. Existing residents may            It also finds itself locked into sprawled
           wind up paying more money for the                     out low density development patterns
           same level of service they received before            for the long term, with all its implications
           because they are paying for facilities built          for higher public service costs.
           to serve future populations.                               If development occurs at a rapid
                New development may bring in resi-               rate, as is often the case where infra-
           dents of a different socio-economic status            structure changes are made in a region
           than existing residents with resulting                with strong economic growth, another
           benefits and costs. A common example                  group of economic impacts may be felt.
           is where a new highway turns a rural                  In an area where a great deal of single-
           community into an affluent suburb of a                family housing is built over a short time,
           metropolitan area. In such cases, the new             most of the residents moving in will be
           residents may demand additional public                about the same age, as will their children.
           services such as libraries, sport facilities          It will be necessary to build schools to
           (golf courses, tennis courts), recreation             serve this large group of children, but
           centers, parks, and public parking lots.              after they pass through the number of
           The costs and the benefits must be                    school age children in the community
           shared by the existing residents.                     will drop suddenly. A large portion of
                For reasons which will be discussed              the school space may then be useless,
           later in this chapter, development in-                as is the case in Lexington, Massachu-
           duced by infrastructure investments                   setts.
           frequently occurs in scattered locations                   Because the economic impacts of
           away from already developed areas. This               new development depend so much on
           'Ieapfrog@' development pattern carries               the particular characteristics of the situa-
<pb n="13" />

                                                                                                                                                                               COMMUNITY LAND USE UNDER DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS

                                                 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, LEXINGTON MASSACHUSETTS 1953-1980

                                                                                                                                                                           0-6-
                                                                      ACTUAL                       I          ACTUAL                PROJECTED
                                                                    GRADES I   TO 6                     KINDERGARTEN TO 6      KINDERGARTEN TO 6

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    VACANT, UNJ.PROVED
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    VA ANje.J`PP1         .0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SEC .                 R VVED &amp;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ED
                                                                                                                                                                           Q4_                                                                      RESIDENTIAL
                                                                                                                                                                                      ------- ---
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    BACKYARDS
                                                                                                                                                                                        ..........

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    OPEN SPACE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    TRAN.PORTI.N
                                                                                                                                                                       T

                                                                                                                                                                           0.2 .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SCHOOL 5 PUBLIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    FACILITIES
                                              ol

                                                                                                                                                                           0-0.
                                                 1950                          ji6o                 :i6?      1970            675           IS&amp;

                                                                                                                                                                                         o

                                            tion, any conclusions about a specific                                                                                  The former depends on how carefully
                                            development have to be based upon spe-                                                                                  the development is designed and con-
                                            cific analyses. The bibliography to this                                                                                structed, and the latter depends on the
                                            chapter lists some documents which will                                                                                 natural assimilative capacity of the local
                                            assist the community in making these                                                                                    environment, as well as the location, pat-
                                            analyses.                                                                                                               tern, and density of development.
                                                                                                                                                                                     Land use: The overall land budget
                                            Environmental Impacts of Residential                                                                                    for the alternative community patterns
                                            Development                                                                                                             analyzed and discussed in The Costs of
                                                                                                                                                                    Sprawl is presented above. There is a
                                                        Development usually degrades the                                                                            striking difference in the amount of land
                                            environment to some extent, but growth                                                                                  required to house a given population as
                                            induced by infrastructure may bring with                                                                                better planning and increased densities
                                            it particularly heavy environmental im-                                                                                 come into play. One major change is the
                                            pacts because it tends to be unantici-                                                                                  potential drop in the "vacant, improved
                                            pated, uncoordinated, and,. therefore,                                                                                  and semi-improved" category, which
                                            haphazardly. distributed and poorly                                                                                     shows the amount of leapfrogging and
                                            designed.                                                                                                               wasted space within the community. Pri-
                                                        The production of air pollution,                                                                            vate backyard. space and land used for
                                            water pollution, and solid waste, as well                                                                               transportation also decline. Planned
                                            as overall rates of energy consumption,                                                                                 open spaces are assumed to actually in-
                                            are largely determined by population                                                                                    crease as densities rise; these include
                                            size. The pattern in which development                                                                                  parks and private communal grounds in
                                            may occur also af                          "fects the amount of pol-                                                    duster and planned unit developments.
                                            lution a given population will generate,                                                                                           As communities opt for more plan-
                                            but to a lesser extent. Actual environ-                                                                                 ning and more compact development, a
                                            mental quality is determined by how the                                                                                 great deal of land can be left vacant and
                                            pollution is abated before it reaches the
                                            environment, and how much of the re-                                                                                        left ) Source: Ledngbon Town Reports
                           12               mainder is absorbed by the environment.                                                                                 (above) Source- RERC
<pb n="14" />

                                                               suburb is generated outside the commu-
                  AV,ERAGE ANNUAL AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS FOR  nitys boundaries. However, to the ex-
                  DFFERENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
                                                               tent that the community is affected by
                                                               locally generated air pollution, higher
                                                               density developments, while producing
                200.
                                                               less air pollution per dwelling unit, may
                                                               have worse local concentrations of air
                                                T ANSPORTATIIN pollution because they have more dwell-
                                                RESIDENTIAL    Ing units per acre. In general, however,
                                                HEATING
                100-                                           within the moderate overall densities
                            .. .. .. ....
                                                               represented by these prototypical com-
                                                               in
                                                                 unities,. lower air pollution emission
                                                               rates are likely to lead to better local and
                                                               regional air quality. More highly planned
                 0
                             1. x
                                                               communities - with their lower emis-
                                     @z z@
                                                                ion rates and greater amo ts of open
                                                               S                            un
                                     N
                                                               space for absorbing pollution - will have
                                                               better air quality than unplanned, sprawl
           unimproved within the town bound-                   communities, no matter what the
           aries. This land is available for future            density.
           population expansion or for open space.                 . 0 Water Pollution: Communities
           It may be used to protect sensitive                 must contend with three major forms of
           ecologies, such as streams, forests, or             water pollution - sanitary sewage, sur-
           wildlife areas, and it can have a high              face runoff (which. includes storm-
           recreational value to the community.                water flow and sedimentation) and
           Conventional "sprawl" communities                   groundwater pollution.
           have virtually no unimproved vacant                      Sanitary sewage production is di-
           land..In the "planned-mix"' community,              rectly related to community population
           however, vacant unimproved land is                  size. Many small communities, however,
           33% of the total - in the high density              can manage their sanitary sewage prob-
           Community it jumps to 56%.                          lems with on-'site disposal in septic
                * Air Pollution: The major sources             tanks. As growth progresses and densi-
           of air pollution in non-industrial areas            ties increase, septic tanks usually cause
           are transportation (especially automo-              problems: houses are built on lots too
           biles) and the space heating of buildings.          small to allow sufficient percolation of
           The graph above shows the estimated                 wastes into the soil. Sewers and treat-
           amount of air pollution produced per                ment plants must then be installed. But
           dwelling unit for the three basic commu-            treatment only removes a part of the
           nity types discussed previously. These              pollution, and the plant effluent can still
           estimates are based on the average num-             cause significant water pollution in the
           ber of miles driven locally per household           receiving stream. As population grows
           in the different development patterns,              and treatment plant effluent increases,
           and on the amount of natural gas needed             stream water quality deteriorates more.
           to heat the various dwelling types.                      The pattern and distribution of land
                Converting these data into estimates           use have virtually no effect on the gen-
           of actual community air quality is diffi-           eration of sanitary sewerage in each
           cult. Air pollution diffuses over large
           areas and most of the air pollution in a             left  Source: RERC                               13

             599 -558 0 - 76 - 2
<pb n="15" />

                           AVERAGE ANNUAL WATER POLLUTION EMISSIONS FOR           AVERAGE ANNUALPER CAPITA WATER USE FOR
                           DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS                         DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS

                                                                               100

                        1POO

                               ----                                                  . . .......

                       A                                   SEDIMENT                  ... ........                LA-
                        1,000- -----                                                 .....                       SPRINKLING
                               -----                       STO M WATER
                               -----   ......              RUNOFF
                                                                                                                 DOMESTIC
                                                           SANITARY            50                                USE
                                                           S
                                               .......     EWAGE

                                                                             o 25

                                      FEW     REMEW

                                                                                             P.:

                    household,   but they do affect stormwater            compounds, and heavy metals can often
                    runoff and Sedimentation. Stormwater                  be found in the groundwater in and
                    flow is water which runs across imper-                around developed areas. Once contam-
                    vious surfaces or saturated land during               inated, the groundwater often takes
                    intense rains. It can cause se  Irious, flood-        many years to clean itself, requiring the
                    ing problems downstream of new devel-                 users of wells to install water treatment         0
                    opment and may also contain significant               facilities or seek alternative, water
                    amounts of pollution. Sedimentation is                sources.
                    a measure of the erosion of soil that                      e Water Consumption: Many areas
                    occurs throughout a community and that                in the United States face current or po-
                    reaches local streams.   'Excessive@ erosion          tential shortages of water. In some
                    causes loss of valuable fertile soils and             places, particularly in the southwest,
                    obstructs streams and lakes.                          water itself is scarce, but the most com-
                         The graph above shows how differ-                mon problem nationally is lack of ade-
                    ent community patterns are estimated to-              quate treatment facilities. Increased en-
                    affect water pollution. As expected, the              vironmental pollution has recently forced
                    communities do not differ in sanitary                 a reevaluation of how much treatment
                    sewage production, but denser, planned                is required to provide safe water - the
                    communities tend to generate less run-                Environmental Protection Agency has
                    off per dwelling unit. Again, this de-                tentatively identified a need for $1.2
                    pends very much on the care that is taken             billion worth of new water filtration
                    in the design and construction of the                 plants nationwide. This money must be
                    development.                                          raised at the local level, and rapidly
                         Groundwater pollution occurs when                growing communities may find it diffi-
                    contaminants, such as sanitary landfills              cult to keep up with the water demands
                    or improperly operating septic tanks'
                    reach the water table. Where the water                  left ) The general findings of The Costs of Sprawl reported
                                                                          Sarutary sewage effluents assuming terbary treatment. The
                    table is high (within a few feet of, tile sur-        graph above has been adjusted to represent the more com-
                    face) or where the soil is very porous,               mon practice of secondary treatment. Source- RMC...
            14      bacteria, viruses, dangerous organic                  (above) Source: RERC
<pb n="16" />

          of new development.
               Increased development increases the                       AVERAGE ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR DIFFERENT
                                                                         DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
          consumption of water. Some of this -
          typically 50 to 80 gallons per person per
          day - is used for laundry, dishwashing,
          toilets, baths, cooking, and so forth. This              i;; 500
          consumption is basically independent of
          development patterns or density, except                    400                              TRIHSPOITATION
          as these affect population. The rest. of the                                                RESID NTIAL
                                                                     300
                                                                                                      HEATING
          water consumed in residences is used'for                 Id             77
          such purposes as lawn watering, and                        200
          this is strongly affected by the develop-
                                                                   .100.
          ment pattern and by climate. Estimated                   I
          average water consumption for different
                                                                      0

          community types is shown at left.                               113,     o L,   t:
                                                                          j, g
               A second way in which development                          z.              I.,

          exacerbates water shortages is. that the
          construction of impermeable surfaces
          reduces the amount of rainfall that per-               hoods try to exclude odorous and un-
          meates back into groundwater reservoirs,               sightly landfills from being.located
          Higher density development results in                  nearby, and even well-designed landfills
          less impermeable surface per dwelling                  are generally perceived as "dumps" by
          unit than lower density developments.                  nearby residents. For these reasons com-
          In either type, the amount of ground-                  munities may be forced to acquire less
          water recharge can be significantly in-                than satisfactory alternative sites, or
          creased by sensitive design and siting,                dispose of their wastes in a more ex-
          and by the construction of holding ponds               pensive manner.
          and recharge facilities within developed                    * Energy: Energy conservation is
          areas.                                                 now a national policy. While high per
               e Solid Waste: Population growth                  capita energy use remains the norm
          induced by infrastructure investments                  throughout the country, some patterns
          will increase solid waste disposal prob-               of development are significantly more
          lems in a local area. Although the pro-                energy efficient than others. The un-
          duction of solid waste may vary a small                planned sprawl pattern characteristically
          amount according to the living patterns                induced around suburban highways and
          and income of the population, virtually                in new sewer service areas has a particu-
          nothing can be done through land use                   larly low energy efficiency under current
          controls to reduce the amount of solid                 technology.
          waste a given population will produce.                      The graph above compares the three
               As population grows, finding a suit-              development patterns as they affect en-
          able site for disposal becomes more dif-               ergy use. Most of the energy savings
          ficult. Satisfactory landfill sites are also           attributed to clustered patterns,of higher
          good building sites - they have low                    density development result from savings
          water tables, and good transportation                  in transportation fuel. High density
          access (for garbage trucks). As develop-               communities, being compact, reduce the
          ment progresses, prices for landfill sites             average mileage of local trips, and there-
          rise, making them more difficult to ob-
          tain. Furthermore, residential neighbor-               (above) Source: RERC                                 15
<pb n="17" />

                   by save gas. Also, other modes of trans-              changes are socially advantageous to ex-
                   portation can replace cars for some pur-              isting residents, others are not. For in-
                   poses - mass transit for work trips,                  stance, a declining neighborhood might
                   walking for light shopping trips.. Savings            experience a rise in local property values,
                   in heating fuel are obtained in high den-             and the construction of commercial
                   sity patterns because of shared walls                 facilities offering more local jobs. On the
                   between units (tQwnhouses or apart-                   other hand, local land values might rise
                   ments), and because larger, more effi-                high enough to price original residents
                   cient furnances may be installed to serve             out of the area; this is especially likely
                   more than one unit.                                   to happen in areas with rental housing,
                                                                         since renters cannot cash in on rising
                   The Social Impacts of Residential                     land prices.
                   Developments                                               The pattern in which growth occurs
                                                                         also carries with it social implications.
                        Theland use changes induced by                   Studies typically show that about three-
                   new infrastructure projects may carry                 quarters of the population prefers owner-
                   with them important social impacts, but               ship of a single-family house to all other
                   they are intricately linked to conditions             options. Among young married people
                   in individual communities. A few general              with children, the rate climbs to 95 per-
                   comments can be made, however, based                  cent. This widespread preference is
                   on the fact that the social impacts of de-            backed up by hard dollars, for people
                   velopment depend both on the people                   clearly are prepared to pay a substantial
                   who are attracted to a growing commu-                 premium for low density living. They
                   nity, and where and how they settle                   pay it in taxes, in travel time to work, and
                   within it.                                            in buying and maintaining expensive
                        In rural communities on the fringe               homes.
                   of metropolitan areas, the first wave of                   On the other hand, increased hous-
                   population increase is usually the most               ing costs are placing single-family homes
                   significant socially. If new population is            beyond the economic reach of much of
                   brought into a predominantly agricul-                 the population; future communities may
                   tural region by a highway, this implies a,            of necessity provide a greater variety of
                   trend away from fanning and toward                    housing units and achieve greater eco-
                   purely residential land uses. The new                 nomic heterogeneity. There are other
                   population will tend to work outside of               social benefits to be gained by planning
                   the community at occupations different                suburban communities for higher den-
                   from those of present residents; they will            sities. Even with detached single family
                   probably have a different income status,              housing, benefits are gained if otherwise
                   a different political outlook, and perhaps            wasted open space in conventional sub-
                   different ethnic backgrounds. Over a few              divisions is organized into neighborhood
                   years, this leads to a realignment of the             parks and recreational space by some
                   community's political and economic                    clustering of houses.
                   system, and the original social structure                  While designing suburban areas
                   is exchanged for a new one.                           exclusively for higher density apartments
                        In urbanized areas where significant             would obviously fail to satisfy consumer
                   increases in development density might                preferences, many improvements over
                   follow the installation of a rapid transit            conventional sprawl patterns may be
                   system, neighborhood social effects can               made without consumer objection or
            16     be strong. Some transit-induced land use              with positive consumer approval. Leap-
<pb n="18" />

                                                                     Z

                                                               71

          frog development clearly represents no            standards" for both air and water pollu-
          consumer preference - avoiding it saves           tion, they are likely to degrade the en-
          travel time and preserves peripheral              vironment much less than older facilities.
          open space, both social gains. High den-          Much of the industry locating in subur-
          sity areas in a community will attract            ban areas emit little pollution in any case.
          single people and young couples, who              On the other hand, commercial and in-
          are often relatively affluent and demand          dustrial developments generate a sig-
          relatively fewer community services.              nificant amount of traffic, causing
          This can help preserve open space and             congestion and air pollution problems.
          maintain the overall low densities many           New facilities also typically include large
          communities prefer. It may even lead to           areas of impermeable surface in the form
          lower taxes.                                      of buildings, parking lots, and roads;
                                                            these surfaces inhibit groundwater re-
          Conunercial and Industrial Development            charge, and their stormwater runoff
                                                            increases local flood hazards and water
               The impact analysis above was con-           pollution.
          cerned only with residential develop-                  All these problems, as well as other
          ments. But communities should also                potential environmental and natural
          consider the possible impacts associated          resource problems, can be significantly
          with commercial and industrial develop-           reduced through proper design, and
          ment that may also follow infrastructure          through the government and the indi-
          investments. It is much harder to gen-            vidual enterprises working closely to-
          eralize about such development, but the           gether during the design and construc-
          following observations are usually valid.         tion phases, as well as after the facility
               The taxes paid by commercial and             is in operation.
          industrial developments usually exceed
          the costs of servicing them by a large
          margin.
               Because new facilities now have to
                                                            (above) A housing development east of Dallias, Texas, August
          conform to "new source performance                1960. Source: U.S. Deparbrnent of Agriculture.  17
<pb n="19" />

                   Infrastructure Investments and Land                  social, and economic forces.
                   Use Changes                                                Some land may be permanently re-
                                                                        moved from the market by law. Exam-
                        Infrastructure influences local land            ples are land restricted by conservation
                   use by changing the supply of develop-               easements, protected environmental
                   able land, the demand for development,               zones such as wetlands and floodplains,
                   or both. These changes are often highly              parks (national, state, and local), forests
                   significant for local communities, for they          (national and state), and wildlife refuges.
                   can bring with them significant eco-                 Conservation easements can be identi-
                   nomic, environmental, and social im-                 fied through local and state conservation
                   pacts, as outlined in the previous section.          commissions; other areas to be protected
                   We now turn to discuss the general                   from development (e.g. to preserve
                   mechanisms by which infrastructure in-               valuable agricultural lands, coastal wet-
                   vestments tend to induce development.                lands, or to prevent water pollution) are
                        It is easiest to look at land use               the concern of state and substate envi-
                   changes from the point of view of devel-             ronmental protection and land use
                   opers. They are the chief actors in the              agencies.
                   urbanization process, and deal with the                    Other protected land uses are easily
                   market forces of supply and demand in                located on various maps obtainable from
                   the most direct and practical way. Devel-            regional planning agencies, technical and
                   opers acquire land, remove or modify                 engineering divisions of state land grant
                   any existing structures, build their pro-            colleges, or zoning commissions (U.S.
                   jects, and then seek tenants or buyers.              Geological Survey maps are useful, but
                   They are, of course, interested primarily            few are completely up to date).
                   in profits, which means that they will                     Good land use maps will also reveal
                   undertake developments only when they                parcels in permanent use as power-line,
                   can reasonably expect enough demand                  pipe-line and rail rights-of-way, and land
                   for their development to justify their               held by schools, colleges, military bases,
                   many costs..                                         airports and other institutions for ex-
                        Infrastructure investments can lead             pansion and other purposes.
                   to local increases in demand for develop-                  Some legal restrictions on land use,
                   ment or reductions in development costs,             notably zoning, may not be perinanent
                   and thus create a strong incentive for               but can hold land out of development in
                   developers to locate their projects near-            the short term. For instance, land may be
                   by. The presence of infrastructure can               zoned for agriculture explicitly to reserve
                   both reduce risk and increase profits for            it for future development needs. Other
                   developers. While this is obvious, it is             land, while legally developable for the
                   seldom adequately considered by infra-               desired project, may not be available at
                   structure planners.                                  any reasonable price - land zoned for
                                                                        commercial use, for example, is likely to
                   The Land Supply                                      be far too expensive for use for single-
                                                                        family housing because the landowners
                        A developer's first problem is find-            have higher expectations of its worth.
                   ing a site and choosing a type of develop-                 Physical limitations on develop-
                   ment to put on it. The supply of land                ment, such as unstable soils, steep
                   suitable for different purposes constant-            slopes, rock outcroppings, and high
                   ly fluctuates, and physical infrastructure           water tables may be harder to identify.
            18     plays a role along with legal, physical,             The U.S.. Soil Conservation Service and
<pb n="20" />

                  One cause of leapfrogging is that             off at least a part of the property.
             there are a number of tax and other                      One survey looked at the reasons
             financial incentives for sale of farm-             for holdouts within developed areas
             land at the retirement or death of the             - a prime cause for leapfrogging.
             owner. There is less incentive to sell             Their reasons for not selling are
             at other times. On retirement, income              significant:
             drops, the tax bracket changes, and,                     Waiting for retirement/
             therefore, taxes on selling the farm                      inheritance                 -77%
             will be lower - especially if the pay-                   Waiting for a better
             ments are spread out over several                         price                       -18%
             years. After the owner's death no cap-                   No offers                   - 5%
             ital gains tax is paid on appreciation             Similar results were found for other -
             during the owner's life, making it                 sales where early leapfrog develop-
             attractive for heirs to sell, especially           ment occurred; there 68 percent of the
             if they do not wish to farm. Estate                sales came through retirement or
             taxes may also force the heirs to sell             death, 21% because of a good offer.

           the engineering and technical schools of             example, often require hundreds of
           state land grant colleges may both be                acres- If parcels must be assembled from
           sources of useful information. Consult-              many sellers, developers' costs are raised
           ing with major development companies                 both in time and money. More intense
           in an area may also be of practical value            land uses, such as high rise office J@uild-
           in determining vacant areas suitable for             ings, need little land and dispersed land
           development. These physical limitations              0.wnership will be les's of An obstacle to
           raise development costs, and cause the               development.
           land to be initially passed over for devel-                Infrastructure influences the land
           opment until more suitable land is used              supply primarily by lowering (sometimes
           up and prices rise enough to cover the               drastically) the costs of development.
           increased development costs.                         Sewers are the prime example. Environ-
                Another supply consideration is the             mental regulations or site conditions
           willingness of landowners to sell their              often preclude the use of septic tanks.
           properties for development. On the                   An alternative, the construction by the
           urban fringe, much land is held in large             developer of his own sewer system and
           parcels by farmers. In many such re-                 small "package" treatment plant, can
           gions, farmers often sell.off their land             entail costs which are high enough to
           when they retire because farming profits             make development unprofitable. If the
           are declining and they may have no heirs             municipality builds the sewer infrastruc-
           willing to take over the work. Conse-                ture, sewage disposal costs are substan-
           quently, it is oftenpossible to predict              tially lower, development becomes
           when farm properties will be put up for              profitable, and a rapid expansion of
           sale by knowing the age of owners. Price             housing within the sewer service area
           is important, but there are tax advantages           may result.
           to delaying the sale until retirement or                   Infrastructure may also remove land
           the death of the owner.                              from development. For example, high-
               The land supply may also be con-                 ways use land for their rights-of-way.
           strained simply because of the size of               While the amount is insignificant in rural
           available parcels. Subdivisions, for                 areas, it is significant in cities; this land       19
<pb n="21" />

                                                                          has good services or a low tax rate, for
                                                            47 __                 e, it is likely to be more attractive
                                                                          exampl
                                                                          to developers. Developers building large
                                                                          homes on big lots will tend to build in
                                                                          areas where there already are such
                                                                          homes; developers @uilding shopping
                                                                          cent
                                                                                ers will locate where large numbers
                                                                          of people will use them, generally near
                                                                          highways and at a distance from other
                                                                          regional shopping centers.
                                                                                Accessibility is very important.
                                            4A
                                                                          People must travel to work and to shop-
                                                                          ping; other things being equal, they will,
                                                                          prefer housing with the most convenient
                                                                          access to important centers. Businesses
                                                                          will locate where they can easily get em-
                                                                          ployees, and where they have access to
                                                                          their supplies and markets.
                    can only be developed through expen-                        Infrastructure affects demand for
                    sive construction techniques using the                development b changing the attractive-
                    highway air rights. Airports may utilize              ness of a spe Ac area for a particular kind
                    vast tracts of adjacent land to create noise          of development, or by changing its ac-
                    buffer zones, reducing the supply of                  cess. Public recreation facilities, which
                    developable land. Both of these effects               can be considered a kind of infrastruc-
                    will change the options available to the              ture, increase local amenities and tend to
                    developer.                                            attract population, often in second home
                                                                          developments. Rural highway inter-
                    Demand for Development                                changes attract travel services such as
                                                                          gas stations and motels.
                         The developer must find tenants or                     In metropolitan regions, the most
                    buyers for what he builds. In a rapidly               important way in which infrastructure
                    growing metropolitan region, there are                affects demand is by changing access to
                    large numbers of people and firms seek-               shopping or jobs. Suburbanization has
                    ing locations and large amounts of de-                been greatly reinforced by the construc-
                    velopment are likely to occur. In a stag-             tion of highwaysi new roads serving
                    nant or declining region, there will be               distant areas may lead to the conversion
                    little demand for new development. New                of undeveloped land to housing. Similar-
                    development responds primarily to, region-            ly, mass transit lines may promote resi-
                    al population and economic growth, al-                dential development at outlying stations
                    though population shifts may alsoopcur                for people who do not use cars..
                    within a region over a longer time span.                    Research has failed to discover a
                         Developers are concerned with more               simple way in which to estimate local
                    than regional demand and local- develop-              demand for new development. In the
                    ment costs, however. They also seek                   case of housing, however, one quick and
                    competitive locational advantages -                   reliable.indicator of lack of demand does
                    areas within regions that are compara-                  left ) Gateway Center, a multi-purpose development using
                    tively more attractive to consumers, and,             the air rights over the Massachusetts Turnpike at Newton,
            20      therefore, 'more saleable. If a community             Massachusetts.
<pb n="22" />

          exist    the local housing vacancy rate.
          If it is above about 5%, then it is highly
          unlikely that extensive development of
          vacant land will occur, assuming no
          change in local attractiveness or trans-
          portation access. But there is a minimum
          vacancy rate of several percent regardless
          of other conditions, both because people               i@@
          are always moving and because old
          housing stock deteriorates. This mini-
          MUM rate varies from pjace to place.
                                                                                               _S17
          Actual housing vacancy rates are listed
          M U.S. Census reports, and may be up-
          dated more frequently by state or local
          censuses.
               The most effective way to estimate
          present demand for housing develop-
          ment is to consult with real estate agents,
          developers, and assessors. Real estate                 pressure. If regional forecasts indicate
          agents especially can give an objective                strong growth trends, it is more likely
          account of housing prospects in an area,               that substantial development in the pro-
          taking into account the amenities, or lack             ject service area will occur, depending on
          thereof, which affect an area's competi-               its relative attractiveness in terms of
          tive position for attracting growth. De-               access to employment centers, and other
          velopers, while perhaps less willing to                amenities.
          reveal their full knowledge, are also                      'Interactions between several infra-
          aware of market trends. Assessors can                  structure investments may affect de- ,
          provide basic information on the trends                velopment demand over the long term.
          of housing values - areas where hous-                  Interactions are significant both between
          ing prices are growing particularly fast               infrastructure of different types and be-
          are likely to attract further growth if the            tween multiple projects of the same type.
          supply of developable land is expanded.                Both highways and sewers are often
               Research into recent land trans-                  necessary before development in an area
          actions in an area is another approach to              can proceed actively. While both are not
          estimating demand. Speculation in land                 required for development, they may
          is a fairly reliable indicator of potential            serve jointly to change substantially the
          development. The creation of develop-                  relative attractiveness of an area, and
          able parcels, either through the assembly              thus determine the rate, pattern, and
          of contiguous.small plots or the division              density at which development occurs.
          of unusually large ones, may be the first                   Interactions between mass transit
          overt sign that development is likely.                 and sewers may be similar to those of
          Registries of deeds maintain current                   highways and sewers, but there are too
          records of such transactions.                          few recent transit projects to draw con-
               Development potential over the long               clusions. Interactions between highways
          .term should also be estimated. While                  and mass transit facilities are equally
          little current interest in development                 (above) A new sewage treatiment Plant to serve suburban
          might be found, over the long term re-                 development, under construction near a suburban highway
          gional growth may increase development                 interchange.                                        21
<pb n="23" />

                                                                                            PREDICT          CONSIDER
                                                                                            IMPACTS           CONTROLS

                                          GENERAL PROCEDURE FOR CONSIDERING DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY INFRASTRUCTURE

                    hard to predict, though it would be safe             merely concentrates part of the region's
                    to say that they would tend to increase              development into its own service area.
                    development density.                                 This is- especially true for smaller projects
                        The interactive effects of multiple              of the sort considered here, such as
                    infrastructure projects should be studied            single highways or sewers.
                    carefully. Normally, one is reviewing
                    .only one project at a time, yet it is clear         Estimating What Development Will
                    that the basic changes in urban form                 Occur
                    wrought by infrastructure, especially
                    highways, has been due to extensive                       The past sections have shown some
                    systems built over a period of years, not            of the impacts of land development, and
                    by isolated projects. It is also true that a         explained how infrastructure invest-
                    particular type of investment has quite              ments can affect that development. For
                    different impacts depending on when it               planning purposes, though, it is nece,3-
                    is built. The first highway in an area may           sary to have a procedure for estimating
                    have substantial local effects, but the              what development will occur, and what
                    twentieth one will probably have much                impacts it will have. This section outlines
                    less.                                                a simple and rough procedure for this
                         This discussion has focused on how              purpose which is developed further in
                    infrastructure investments can shift                 the subsequent chapters.
                    existing or potential demand. Whether                     Each type of investment has its own
                    or not infrastructure can create new                 characteristics, and each one must be han-
                    demand for development is another                    dled differently.  However, the basic goals
                    more controversial point. It is certainly            of the procedure and the general steps in-
                    possible that the Federal Highway Pro-               volved remain the same. Virtually all de-
                    gram, for example, has so improved                   velopment related to infrastructure is
                    transportation in and between cities that            localized in a zone physically adjacent to
                    it has actually created economic growth.             the investment and served by it. The first

                                        DEFINE
                                        ""Ar
                                          'T;AA.
                                        B EXISTING
                                        CONDITIONS
                                        a&lt;

                    A more conservative view is that infra-              step is to define this impact area and to look
            22      structure seldom creates growth, but                 at how it has been growing in the past.
<pb n="24" />

                The second step is to look at the                investments may be controlled. This
           supply of land in the area, and to assess             handbook emphasizes the importance of
           what land is available, what services are             modifying infrastructure design to con-
           offered, whether there are physical or                trol development and its adverse im-
           legal development restrictions, and                   pacts. Specifying design changes for
           whether land is likely to be sold at a                various investments will be discussed in
           reasonable price to developers. Invest-               succeeding chapters. But it is also impor-
           ments such as sewers might change the                 tant to consider other land use controls.
           availability or price of land for different
           uses. In some situations, redevelopment               Controlling the Impacts of Induced
           of existing uses may also be possible.                Development
                The third step is to consider demand
           for development. Residential demand will'                  There are two possible ways of deal-
           generally depend on how fast the region               ing with the potential impacts of induced
           is growing, on how attractive the impact              development. One is to control the de-
           area is, and on what sort of access it has            velopment, and thus limit the impacts.
           to jobsi shopping, and other amenities.               The other is to respond to the impacts
           Commercial demand will depend on                      after the fact, by providing various ser-
           whether there are people who would                    vices or facilities (e.g., police protection
           travel there to shop or work.                         or sewage treatment plants). Both ap-
                Demand and supply must then be                   proaches are effective and sound, but
           combined to give estimates of what de-                the emphasis here is on limiting impacts
           velopment will occur. Three questions                 by controlling development. Most com-
           are of interest here:                                 munities have experience responding to
                                                                 development impacts; few are adept at
                1. How much development will                     preventing them.
                   occur, and where will it go?                       Prevention can be accomplished
                2. What development patterns and                 through land use controls. However, in
                   densities can be expected?                    the case of development induced by in-
                3. At what rate will the develop-,               frastructure investments, changing the
                   ment occur?                                   design of the infrastructure itself is often
           The answers to these three questions will             the simplest and cheapest way of con-
           characterize the development and give                 trolling land use changes.
           an understanding of the likely conse-
           quences of the investment.                            Infrastructure Design Changes
                The fifth step is concerned with im-
           pacts. Once some idea of the likely                        Changing the design of the pro-
           amount, pattern, and rate of develop-                 posed infrastructure investment can
           ment is found, approximate result-                    change its effect on the local supply of
           ing impacts can be predicted. The dis-                developable land or the local demand for
           cussion earlier in this chapter is relevant,          development. A reduction in capacity
           and there are other publications (some of             will reduce the amount of development
           which are listed under Further Sources                which the infrastructure can support.
           at the end of each chapter) available on              there will be less development induced
           predicting impacts which would be of                  by a two-lane road than an interstate
           use to the local planner.                             highway, all else being equal.
               The final step is to consider how the                  Changing the route of the infrastruc-
           impacts attributable to infrastructure                ture can also be effective in controlling          23
<pb n="25" />

                            In 1%9, the town of Ramapo,                   defects of the ordinance have become
                       New York, which controls 60 square                 obvious. However, a valuable prece-
                       miles of bedroom suburbs serving                   dent has been made. Growth in
                       New York City, enacted a revolution-               Ramapo must follow, rather than pre-
                       ary ordinance which tied future resi-              cede, the ability of the town to ser-
                       dential development to an 18 year                  vice it.
                       capital facilities program. To obtain                   Such ordinances, if tied to a pro-
                       approval for a development, builders               gram to provide housing for all in-
                       must demonstrate that adequate pub-                come groups (which Ramapo planned
                       lic facilities e3dst to serve their pro-           but has conspicuously failed to do),
                       ject, or build the facilities themselves           could do much to control haphazard
                       at their own cost. Growth is still al-             sprawl created by unplanned infra-
                       lowed in Ramapo, but it is being                   structure investment.
                       guided to fit the needs of the commu-
                       nity and minimize public costs.
                            Since its passage, many social

                     induced development. Sewer lines may                 quire developers either to pay the cost
                     be aligned to avoid large completely va-             of service extensions or to locate where
                     cant tracts, and to encourage the comple-            services are available. This method re-
                     tion of development in partially urban-              duces community costs, cuts down on
                     ized areas. Highway interchanges or                  leapfrogging, and controls the rate of
                     mass transit stations can similarly be lo-           development.
                     cated to stimulate infilling and avoid
                     further sprawl.                                      Zoning
                          Staging the investrnents can also
                     have an impact. A highway or a sewer                      Zoning is the most familiar and
                     can be extended in phases. Seveial small             widely used land use control and is the
                     projects, again built in phases, can sub-            most powerful planning tool available
                     stitute for one large scale project. Since           to local government. Zoning designates
                     ,it is more difficult to control rapid growth        pem-dssable uses and restrictions on
                     than moderate growth, staging can be an              various defined districts within a larger
                     important technique.                                 area. It receives its power from the police
                          The local community can often in-               power provisions of the Constitution,
                     fluence such design considerations, and              and is defined by state enabling legis-
                     thus control growth. Careful planning of             lation.
                     interchanges and frontage roads, park-                    Unfortunately, conventional zoning
                     ing facilities, access provisions for parks          has often been unable to cope with the
                     or airports, and the like are very impor-            great pressure for development in many
                     tant in guiding new development, and                 suburban areas. And where rapid new
                     in reducing its adverse impacts.                     development is being induced by an in-
                          It is also possible to guide growth in          frastructure'investment, there is often
                     a community through the provision of                 irresistable pressure for zoning changes
                     public facilities. If a community develops           which may be harmful to the community.
                     a capital investrnent plan for extending               . Innovative zoning methods such as
                     necessary services like sewers, schools,             cluster zoning, density zoning, and
             24      and water supply, it may be able to re-              planned unit developments (PUDs) have
<pb n="26" />

                 Zoning can act against its own                      Development along streams can
             goals if variances are easy to get.                lead to polluted water supplies and
             Land zoned for apartments is or-                   flooding. Many communities have
             dinarily much more valuable than                   zoned buffers around streams,
             other residentially zoned land, so in              allowing no development within 50
             the early 60's owners in Montgom-                  feet or so to reduce impacts. Napa
             ery County, Maryland, raised their                 County, California, uses such a
             asking prices accordingly. Develop-                buff er. In other areas, such as Placer
             ers, however, found variances easy to              County, California, the boundary
             get, and simply bought land in single              size depends on the conditions of
             family districts and had it rezoned.               soils, the land slope, and other fac-
             One writer says, "It almost appeared               tors; this reduces impacts, but is
             that the best way to keep apartments               harder to administer. Zoning of sen-
             out of the area was for the Planning               sitive areas to reduce impacts is an
             Commission to take the initiative                  important land use and environ-
             in rezoning it for apartments."                    mental control tool.

          gained acceptance in many communities               quality and the local ecology. For such
          across the country. All allow increased             areas, early regulation is important.
          concentration of uses in some parts of a
          site in exchange for more open space in             Purchase of Land Rights
          other parts. Such techniques can reduce
          municipal capital and service costs, re-                Zoning is legally strongest when it
          duce environmental problems such as                 is designed to prevent an obvious public
          stonnwater runoff, and protect sensitive            hann, as when industrial uses are ex-
          areas. A wide amount of literature is               cluded from residential zones so that
          available on all of them.                           property values are secure and public
               Special zoning for sensitive environ-          safety protected. Where the purpose of
          mental areas can reduce the environ-                zoning is to provide a public benefit, as
          mental impacts of development consider-             when land is zoned for open space,
          ably. Streams and creeks, wetlands,                 owners of restricted land may sue for
          woodlands, hillsides, and groundwater               compensation - they may have been
          and aquifer recharge areas are. prime               deprived of future benefits from devel-
          candidates for designation as sensitive             opment. In such cases conventional
          areas; development on them should be                zoning may fail, and public purchase of
          controlled or, where necessary, pre-                property or development rights may be
          vented. In some cases, such controls are            required to limit development or protect
          not necessary until land costs become               sensitive environments.
          high - hillsides, for example, are ex-                  Conservation restrictions are often
          pensive to build on and tend to be de-              used to protect open space or sensitive
          veloped last. Other sensitive areas are             areas. A community, in effect, pays an
          inexpensive to develop but have high                owner not to develop all or part of his
          value to the community as open space;               land. It buys the "development right"
          for instance, floodplains are often prime           either in perpetuity or for a set period of
          development sites, yet they should be               time such as 30 years. Alternatively, the
          protected from development to avert                 public can buy the land outright and
          costly flood damage and protect water               "banl&lt;" it. Landbanking is expensive,            25

                599-558 0 - U - 3
<pb n="27" />

                                                                                                                                     A-

                                                                                                               NINE-;
                                                                                                         ssqv;

                            but cheaper options than immediate                                          pacts. Requiring high standards of in-
                            outright purchase are available. These                                      sulation in new houses will reduce
                            usually give the present owner continued                                    energy consumption and air pollution
                            use of the land in its undeveloped state.                                   from space heating. Construction and
                            References on the topic may be found at                                     design techniques can help control noise
                            the end of this chapter.                                                    problems in both public and private
                                                                                                        buildings. Plumbing codes may be de-
                            Controls on Subdivisionsand                                                 signed to cut down on water use and
                            Construction                                                                reduce sewer loads.

                                   Subdivision regulations may con-                                     Further Sources
                            trol storm drainage, pavement type,
                            curbs, sidewalks, street grades and                                               The literature on the dynamics of
                            widths, utility burial, amounts of recre-                                   land use change is large and rapidly ex-
                            ational land, and other aspects of new                                      panding. A good general introduction
                            development. They can, therefore, be                                        is Marion Clawson's Suburban Land Con-
                            used to set performance standards for                                       version in the United States (1971); it re-
                            environmental management - stan-                                            views the process of urban expansion in
                            dards for holding stormwater and timing                                     a readable and enjoyable way.
                            its release to sewers, for example. Ade-                                          Another introductory reference on
                            quate standards for septic tank design                                      urban growth, one with a strong em-
                            and maintenance may, if local soils are                                     phasis on environmental problems, is
                            suitable, solve wastewater management                                       The Use of Land: A Citizen's Policy Guide
                            problems without provision of sewers.                                       to Urban Growth (Reilly, 1973).
                            With performance standards, the de-
                            veloper can use either land use designs                                       -left ) This suburban subdivision is encroad-dng on forested
                            or engineering solutions to meet the                                        land, increasing potential sedimentation and erosion problems
                                                                                                        for local streams, and diminishing local aquifer recharge.
                            community's goals and standards.                                            (above ) This eartlisfide in San Anselmo, California, demolished
                                   Building codes also can be used to                                   newly constructed apartments following heavy rainfall in Jan-
                  26        ameliorate adverse development im-                                          uary 1967. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
<pb n="28" />

                  A great deal of development                    ment by Schaenman and Muller. Further
             occurred in the 1950's on hillsides                 work on such subjects is underway and
             around Los Angeles. Each year the                   several valuable studies should be com-
             rainy season caused erosion and                     pleted during the coming year.
             land slides. By 1963 the city and                        Another recent study, published by
             county had developed regulations                    the U.S. Department of Housing and
                                                                 Urban Development, is the Interim Guide
             on the density and engineering of                   forIEnvironmental Assessment, HUD Field
             hillside sites.                                     Office Edition. This is a handbook for
                  In 1969, the county received the               identifying and evaluating the environ-
             heaviest winter rainfall in over 85                 mental impacts of proposed develop-
             years. The average hillside site                    ment projects; it describes practical field
             under the new regulations received                  tests appropriate for identifying potential
             an average of only $16 damage; sites                environmental problem areas, as well as
             developed before 1963 received ten                  advanced tests and technical references
             times as much damage, and many                      for quantifying and evaluating them.
             houses were totally destroyed.                           A valuable new compendium of ar-
                                                                 ticles on growth and its control has re-
                                                                 cently been published in three volumes
                The Environmental Protection                     by The Urban Land Institute, called Man-
          Agency has published Land Use and the                  agement and Control of Growth (Scott,
          Environment, An Anthology of Readings                  1975). The hundreds of articles presented
          (by the American Society of Planning                   give a comprehensive view of current
          Officials). The contents summarize the                 thinking on growth control, its political,
          new land use ethic and cover the range                 legal, and environmental implications.
          from local control applications to national                 Another recent source is Future Land
          policy goals.                                          Use: Energy, Environmental and Legal
               Literature on quantifying the land                Constraints (Burchell and Listokin, 1975).
          use impacts of development is still dis-               This collection of articles supplements
          couragingly small. The Costs c@ Sprawl,                the readings in the Urban Land Insti-
          which covers economic, environmental,                  tute's anthology.
          and social impacts and is the source from                   Ian McHarg's Design with Nature
          which most of the chapter's land use im-               presents a landscape planner's approach
          pact information was taken, was pub-                   to translating environmental theory into
          lished in three volumes: an Executive                  practice. The book presents a way to
          Summary, a Detailed CostAnalysis, and                  analyze all land as to its suitability for
          an extensive Literature Review and Bib-                various types of development.
          liography. This study based its analysis                    Extensive bibliographies on hun-
          on theoretical average cost and pollution              dreds of planning topics are available
          figures for different development pat-                 through the Council of Planning Librar-
          terns, and its conclusions should be read              ians; major libraries often carry them, or
          with that in mind. Other useful studies                one can write the Councilfor their cur-
          concentrating on fiscal impacts include                rent catalog.
          the State of New Jersey report on Hous-                     Those interested in finding detailed
          ing and Suburbs: Fiscal and Social Impacts             land use information specific to their own
          of Multifamily Development and two re-                 locale may contact the planning and law
          ports by the. Urban Institute: Fiscal Im-              schools of nearby universities, local con-
          pacts of Land Development by Muller, and               servation commissions, and regional
          Measuring the Impacts of Land Develop-                 planning agencies.                                  27
<pb n="29" />

            2 Highways

                         Old Route D snakes northeastward
                    out of Atlanta through a broad valley of
                    Kudza and Yellow Pines. At one time
                    people and freight passed through
                    Suwanee, Flowery Branch, Buford, and
                    Gainesville on the slow journey to the
                    other manufacturing towns of the Pied-
                    mont, Washington, and the major north-
                    ,eastern cities.
                         This all changed when Interstate 85
                    was completed and a modem limited
                    access connection was established be-
                    tween Atlanta and Richmond, Virginia
                    (to the Northeast), and Montgomery,
                    Alabama (to the Southwest). The im-
                    proved North and South Highways di-                                  7'
                    verted long haul coastal traffic through
                    Atlanta. At the same time the truck
                    traffic helped fuel the rapid economic                   In the past twenty years, highways
                    expansion experienced by Atlanta in the              have played a major role in shaping
                    last decade. And, until the expressways              American cities. New highways have
                    were constructed, poor access to the                 been characterized both as the destroyer
                    open land ringing Atlanta confined new               of inner cities, and as a necessity in their
                    housing to the city limits and parts of              revitalization. Radial superhighways
                    nearby Dekalb County. The interstate                 built to aid access into central cities have
                    system permitted Atlanta to expand to a              led to an exodus from the city to the
                    seven county metropolitan area encom-                suburbs. Circumferentials, often built to
                    passing over 2000 square miles.                      let traffic by-pass cities, have themselves
                         Development around the North                    become congested because of businesses
                    Druid Hills Road interchange, about 15               and households which locate along
                    miles from the heart of downtown At-                 them. Major shopping centers have lo-
                    lanta, exemplifies these patterns of                 cated at the interchanges of limited-
                    growth. When this stretch of 1-85 was                access highways. Commercial strip de-
                    completed in the mid-fifties, pine for-              velopment has occurred along the sides
                    ests covered most of the area around the             of access -roads and other highways. In
                    interchange. Now, eight gas stations', an            some cases,  through traffic on the high-
                    office park housing the regional opera-              way has generated employment by pro-
                    tions of many major corporations, a                  viding demand for goods and services.
                    shopping center and many fast food                   The Atlanta example shows the large-
                    chains and other service businesses are              scale effects highways have had on de-
                    within a few1minutes of the interchange.             velopment. The trend of suburbanization
                    At least fifteen light industrial opera-             may be changing, but highways still have
                    tions have located on the frontage road.             an impact.
                    Within 10 minutes of the interchange,
                    thousands of apartment units have                    (above ) North Druid Hills Road at the Atlanta Northeast Free-
                    sprung up along North Druid Hills                    way, 1957. Source: Georgia State Department of Bghways
                    Road, Buford Highway', and small                     (opposite) The same interchange in September 1973, after
                                                                         extensive development. Source: Georgia State Department of
             28     feeder roads constructed by developers.              Flighways
<pb n="30" />

                            imp        .73:@                                                                                       qw
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<pb n="31" />

                               One of the major highway by-                                         Market Street      By-pass
                          pass studies was done in Blairsville,                                    Pre-      Post-    Pre-    Post-
                          Pennsylvania, about 1960. The main                                        bypass   bypass  bypass bypass
                          local highway, U.S. 22, was relocated                     Gas Stations         4       6       0          5
                                                                                    Restaurants         11       13      0          2
                          around the congested center of town                       Motels                2      5       0          1
                          in 1953. Land use change over the next                    All Business       207      216      0          8
                          several years found that most new
                          commercial and light industrial devel-
                          opment located on the bypass. Since
                          there was less congestion in town, the
                          area became more attractive for local
                          business, as the table shows. If,
                          though, the economy had, concen-
                          trated on serving through travelers,
                          the results could have been very
                          different.

                            The effects of highways on land use                     areas where people would like to work or
                       and development are addressed in this                        live.
                       chapter. These effects result primarily                           If it is easy to get on and off the
                       from the change in access to developable                     highway - if there are unlimited curb
                       land which highways provide. Three                           cuts and all intersections are at grade
                       common examples of such development                          level - then development can occur
                       are the rural interchange which seems to                     along the sides of the highway in a
                       sprout gas stations, restaurants, and                        I/ strip" of stores, restaurants, motels,
                       motels overnight, the suburban area                          gas stations, and apartments. Single-
                       which becomes dotted for miles around                        family housing may spread out behind
                       with subdivisions and shopping -centers                      these strips on the many crossing roads.
                       after the new interstate is built, and the                        If the highway is of the interstate
                       local highway which blossoms'with gar-                       type with limited access, then the push
                       ish strip commercial development.                            for development will be at interchanges,
                            Rural interchanges of limited access                    and cross streets may become major
                       highways often become developed with                         arterials with their own strip develop-
                       service facilities catering to through traf-                 ment or office parks. The highly visible
                       fic. Businesses which locate there usually                   land along the road may be developed
                       have little local market and cannot sup-                     through construction of frontage roads.
                       port themselves without the highway.                              In some cases, highways have minor
                       In this case, the highway provides a net                     effects. In the 1950's, a large number of
                       economic gain to the community.                              "by-pass" studies were done to see
                             In suburban areas such as around                       whether construction of a by-pass
                       Atlanta, radial highways and beltways                        around a town hurt local business. In
                       have drawn businesses and households                         general, the original roads and the by-
                       from downtown and helped create more                         pass were state or federal highways, two
                       widespread housing and employment                            to four lanes wide, with unlimited access,
                       centers. In general, the bigger and faster                   and the towns were centers of rural
                       the highway the larger these impacts will                    areas. The by-pass roads had little
               30      be, so long as the road gives access to                      impact. Only a small portion of the com-
<pb n="32" />

                   T'hirty-six rural interchanges on                    In 1949, Route 128 around
              Interstate 70 were studied in Penn-                  Boston was opened and quickly be-
              sylvania in 1966.  1Most interchange                 came a classic example of the power
              development was to serve travelers -                 of highways to induce local growth.
              gas stations, restaurants, and motels                Glamour industries such as com-
              - and residential and other develop-                 puter electronics firms moved in,
              ments were further away. Inter-                      drawing labor from Boston itself
              changes on important cross routes got                and local suburbs. Later another cir-
              more development.                                    cumferential - Route 495 - was
                   Of the 17 interchanges more than                planned; it was billed as "another
              14 miles from an urban area, only 6                  128." While the roads were similar in
              had any development. Of the 19                       configuration, economic conditions
              within the 14 miles of an urban area,                were different: 128 apparently drew
              17 received some development. No                     off all the glamour industries; 495 was
              development occurred without easy                    too far from downtown to yield exten-
              on-off access.                                       sive land use changes.

           munity depended on      servin@ through              build a road has implications as large as
           traffic, and even with the b  y pass people          that to build one. A number of highways
           would stop if they needed to, so the                 have been planned to go through de-
           areas were not hurt.                                 veloped areas, and have later been can-
  J             The interstate beltways were also               celled. In the meantime, though, banks
           supposed to act as by-passes around                  and mortgage holders have been unwill-
           metropolitan areas, but they showed                  ing to invest in the area because con-
           very different development patterns.                 demnation and demolition are likely.
           Highways like Route 128 around Boston                The result has been delayed main-
           attracted large amounts of residential               tenance, vacant houses which cannot be
           and industrial development, and have                 sold, and spreading blight. After a high-
           served as the sites of regional shopping             way is eventually cancelled, recovery
           malls and similar facilities. Traffic gen-           may be impossible.
           erated by this induced development has                    The following section of this chapter
           removed most of the gains predicted for              outlines a procedure for analyzing prob-
           by-passing the central cities. In some               able land use changes which is based on
           cities, several belt-vavs have been built            the framework discussed in Chapter 1.
           at increasing distances from the center              First, the impact area of a highway is
           city; in this case, development concen-              defined. Then land availability and the
           trates on the inner ones, and the outer              demand for development are identified.
           ones may serve as by-passes.                         It is then possible to estimate the quan-
                Highways compete with each other                tity, pattern, an'd rate of development
           as sites for development. The effects of             from the interaction of these two factors,
           the fourth highway - either beltway or               and to go from these to the expected im-
           radial highway - will be smaller than                pacts of the land use change.
           the effects of the first. Development will
           be more spread out if there are more                 Defining the Impact Area
           sites with equal access.
                The impacts of highways can be                       The impact area of a highway is the
           complex. Sometimes, the decision not to              area in which major land use changes               31
<pb n="33" />

                                   J
                                     r -                                                r

                                                V4-p

                   may be expected; its size depends on the           home development and some employ-
                   type of highway built, its location, and           ment. People are often willing to travel
                   on the other highways nearby. In rural             long distances to such sites, and develop-
                   regions it may only be the immediate               ment will follow. Some people may also
                   neighborhood of the interchange where              move forty or fifty miles from the city and
                   travelers will stop to buy gas, food, or '         commute daily to jobs which have
                   other services. In suburban areas it may           moved twenty miles into the suburbs.
                   extend several miles on each side of the                A new highway in a suburban area
                   highway. In urbanized areas it must be             can induce both high density intensive
                   defined carefully with reference to local          development and low density dispersed
                   conditions.                                        development. Intensive development -
                       Rural interchanges are defined as              residential, commercial, and industrial
                   those interchanges on interstate or lim-           - is more likely to occur near the inter-
                   ited access state highways which are               changes. High density residential devel-
                   beyond the maximum commuting dis-                  opment depends on how accessible the
                   tance to central city employment. At such          interchange is to major employment
                   interchanges there is potential for de-            centers and public transit. Commercial
                   velopment serving through traffic on the           development depends on how access-
                   highway. This development will vary                ible the interchange is to residential areas
                   depending on the traffic flow on the               and how many people are likely to drive
                   highway and on whether services are                by it. Industrial development will de-
                   readily available at nearby interchanges,          pend on how accessible the interchange
                   but it will concentrate within the im-             is to large labor pools. Because circum-
                   mediate area of the interchange - gen-             ferential highways generally provide
                   erally within 1500 feet and in areas most          access to more people and jobs than rad-
                   visible from the highway. Under special            ial highways, intensive development is
                   circumstances, particularly in scenic              likely to be greater at the former than the
                   areas or near recreation sites such as             latter.
                   reservoirs or ski slopes (see Chapter 5),               For less intensive development, the
           32 , rural highways may also stimulate leisure             critical issue is how far people are willing
<pb n="34" />

                                                                    These three figures show stages
                                   i:: HH:
                                                                in development induced by a high
                                                                way investment. The first shows ru-
                                                                Tal land, primarily used for farming.
                                                                    In the second stage, the high-
                                                                way has been planned and con-
                                                                struction is underway. One parcel
                                                                is being developed, but several
                                                                more have been bought by specu-
                                                                lators. Fanning has almost ceased.
                                                                    In the third picture, commer-
                                                                cial strips have formed along the
                                                                road intersecting the highway, and
                                                                some apartments have been built
                                                                in the lower right. Open space has
                                      %                         been reduced considerably.

          to live from the highway. At the urban             because of the complex ways they affect
          fringe where even with the highway it              existing communities. Land requirements
          takes a long time to get anywhere, people          alone may become a problem, for such
          will want to live close to the entrance. For       highways usually obliterate many acres of
          an inner circumferential, where most               existing development. New urban high-
          jobs are only a few minutes along the              ways tend to divide neighborhoods, dis-
          highway, it is reasonable to spend some            rupt local traffic patterns, and interact in
          time travelling to it.                             complex ways with regional as well as
               For small highways or areas far from          local transportation networks.
          employment, ten minutes rush hour                       For these reasons opposition to new
          travel to the highway may be acceptable            highways in urban areas is often intense.
          to most people, so development will                As a result, construction may be deferred
          occur within that distance.                        or even canceled, but adverse impacts
               In fast-growing regions where the             may still occur as neighborhoods are al-
          highway makes a real improvement in                lowed to decay along the proposed route.
          access, a fifteen or twenty minute ride
          to the highway may be acceptable to                The Supply of Developable Land
          enough people to make development
          profitable. The impact area would then be               The most extensive effect of high-
          all the land closer to an interchange on the       ways has generally been to increase the
          new highway than to one on an older                development of vacant land into single-
          highway, and within twenty minutes                 family housing. Commercial, industrial,
          travel (in rush hour) of the new inter-            and apartment developments have often
          change. Twenty minutes is probably a               occurred in the immediate area of the
          maximum access time to the new high-               highways, but usually not more than a
          way in any case, and shorter times may be          few minutes travel from an interchange.
                                              F_ q1

          appropriate in most instances.                         The first supply concern, then, is to
               Defining the impact area of highways          estimate the amount of vacant land
          planned for urban areas is more difficult          which is developable and within the im-         33.

              599-558 0 - 76 - 4
<pb n="35" />

                                        ... ... .. ...

                                                                                                                       @il.@

                     pact area of the highway. Land in low-               the potential exists for fast and major
                     density use near the highway should also             land use changes. If it is low, little change
                     be considered, because it may be con-                will occur.
                     verted to denser uses. The importance of                  Estimating demand for new devel-
                     the type of land and its cost were de-               opment induced by a highway in an
                     scribed in Chapter 1. Highways in the                inner city is complex and beyond the
                     suburbs tend to induce development on                scope of this book. Demand for commer-
                     vacant, prime land because it has the                cial development around rural inter-
                     lowest construction costs for large-scale            changes, on the other hand, is fairly easy
                     developments such as subdivisions and                to anticipate: it depends on the visibility
                     shopping centers.,                                   of the interchange and its volume of
                          If the supply of vacant, easily de-             traffic. Forecasts of traffic volume are
                     veloped land is large, there is little like-         available through state highway depart-
                     lihood that developed land will be con-              ments, and may show seasonal varia-
                     verted to higher uses, unless its price is           tions. For instance, highways serving
                     extraordinarily low. If there is little va-          vacation areas may have a high demand
                     cant land, particularly around inter-                for tourist services during the summer,
                     changes, redevelopment of land and                   and almost none during the winter, or
                     development of marginal areas such as                vice versa.
                     hillsides are more likely,, Where very little             For highways serving developing
                     vacant land exists, development of high-             suburban areas, the demand depends on
                     way air rights may occur.                            the rate of growth of the metropolitan
                                                                          region, on the relative attractiveness of
                     Demand for Development                               the area compared to the rest of the
                                                                          region, and on the accessibility of the
                          Demand for development is a mea-                area. The latter is affected by highways.
                     sure of how many people would be will-                    Projecting the likely growth of the
                     ing to occupy new development in an                  region and assessing the relative attrac-
                     area, and how much they would be will-               tiveness of the area will indicate if there
             34      ing to pay. If the demand is high, then              is a potential for,large, moderate, or
<pb n="36" />

                    The residential areas from                           The Boston Southwest Express-
              which workers commute to employ-                      way was planned to extend Inter-
              ment are often defined by high-                       state 95 into the city. Construction
              ways. The left figure on the oppo-                    plans proceeded and the state con-
              site page shows the area within 30                    demned buildings in the right-of-
              minutes travel to a center, over local                way. Tenants remained in local areas,
              roads. The right hand figure shows                    but the new landlord - the state of
              (on a reduced scale) the new                          Massachusetts - failed to maintain
              areas within 30 minutes commuting                     the buildings. When citizen opposi-
              after construction of a major high-                   tion defeated the entire project in
              way. The dark area is the old com-                    1970, the 1-95 corridor was an urban
              muting area, the light shade shows                    ruin. Some buildings have been
              added commuting area.                                 demolished. The social structure of
                                                                    the area was torn apart,'and the city
                                                                    was left with a wound which will take
                                                                    year .s to heal.

           small amounts of land use change. The                 or if there is little employment within
           next step is to see if that potential will            about 30 minutes travel time.
           be translated into actual growth by the                    in small regions, these critical times
           change in access provided by a new                    should be reduced somewhat; in the
           highway.                                              largest cities, such as New York, people
                If the potential for growth is low,              are willing to travel further, and the
           highways will not change it. If large                 limits should be increased.
           amounts of growth are occurring already,                   Poor access will eliminate most
           building a highway will make little dif-              demand for development. People will
           ference. The important case is where a                not locate in an area if there is no work
           highway makes an area with high growth                within an acceptable distance, and devel-
           potential significantly more accessible to            opers will not build there.
           potential tenants and residents.                           Good access may increase the
                In general, length of the trip to work           demand on an area. An area with good
           is the most important factor in locating              access and moderate regional growth
           households. Simple measures of access                 and local attractiveness will probably
           are the rush hour travel times to the cen-            have a relatively high demand for devel-
           tral business district and other major                opment. Areas of low growth and attrac-
           employment centers in the region. The                 tiveness will not experience much of an
           acceptable travel times will vary from one            increase in demand for development
           region to another and among individual                even if access is improved.
           households, but the following general
           rules can be suggested.                               Forecasting Secondary Effects
                ACCESS is GOOD if the rush hour
           travel time to the central business district               The next step is to convert estimates
           is less than about 30 minutes or if there             of land supply and development demand
           is other substantial employment within                into forecasts of the extent of land use
           20 minutes travel time or so.                         change, and the rate and pattern in
                ACCESS is POOR if the central busi-              which it will occur. There are, basically,
           ness district is one hour or more distant             nine cases to consider: supply and                  35
<pb n="37" />

                  demand can each be high, moderate or
                  low. If demand is low, development will
                  be negligible no matter what the supply
                  of land, so these cases need no further
                  analysis.
                       However, under the following
                  cases, substantial development may
                  occur:
                            DEMAND           SUPPLY
                            High             High
                                             High
                            Moderate
                            Moderate         Moderate
                       These three cases describe tradi-
                  tional development at the urban fringe.
                  The impacts attributable to the highway                                             T_
                  will depend on the extent to which it is
                                                                                                       -jr 1@
                  likely to increase demand (by improving
                  accessibility) - from low to moderate or
                  high, or from moderate to high. The                 houses, townhouses, and walk-up
                  typical case is where an area in a growing          apartments would be likely, with the
                  region is "opened up" for development               denser uses closer to the highway.
                  by a new highway. Development will be               Because of the resulting high population
                  primarily residential, with low density             density, commercial and industrial uses
                  subdivisions of single-family homes or of           might begin to locate in the area. Vacant
                  apartments and condominiums. There                  land would receive most of the develop-
                  may be some higher density uses near                ment, but there would be conversion of
                  the interchanges of highways, but                   some developed land, particularly near
                  usually only if low cost, undeveloped               the highway interchanges, to other uses
                  land is available. Almost no conversion             and higher densities.
                  of developed land will occur. Leapfrog-                 The highest density development
                  ging is likely, as developers will look for         will probably occur when supply is low,
                  large parcels available at a reasonable             but demand is moderate or high. In these
                  price within ten or twenty minutes drive            cases, land prices will be high, and high
                  from the highway.                                   density residential, commercial and
                       A slightly different development               industrial development will result. De-
                  pattern is likely to occur when the                 velopment parcels will generally be as-
                  demand is high but the supply is only               sembled from vacant land and older
                  moderate. In this case, the development             housing, and will usually be fairly small.
                  is constrained. An example would be an              Irifill housing will be constructed, but
                  area which is partially developed and               large subdivisions, industrial parks, and
                  moderately accessible before the con-               shopping centers are unlikely because of
                  struction of the highway and which                  the problems in assembling sites. A
                  becomes highly accessible after construc-           typical case would be an older, satellite
                  tion. Land costs would be relatively                city given improved access to a central
                  high, and most development would                    city by a new highway. Another would
                  probably have to be on quarter-acre or
                                                                      (above) New multi-farnfly housing in the suburbs typically
                  smaller lots to be profitable. A mix                locates dose to highway interchanges, as here in Springfield,
           36     between fairly dense single-family                  Massachusetts, August 1975.
<pb n="38" />

                    The access highway from                             One way to cut down on strip
               Washington, D.C. to Dulles Air-                     development along highways is to
               port is unusual. There are no exits                 reduce the number of access points
               on the way to the airport from the                  permitted between intersections.
               city side, and no entrances on the                  This has been done near Columbus,
               way to the city from the airport. To                Ohio, where several auto-oriented
               use the highway to commute to                       food shops grouped themselves in a
               Washington, it is necessary to get                  fairly attractive cluster off the main
               on, drive to the airport, then turn                 road after the city planning depart-
               around and travel back 25 miles to                  ment clamped down on the allow-
               town. Naturally, it is not very popu-               able curb cuts in the area. Traffic
               lar - that is how it was planned.                   congestion is reduced, safety in-
                    Building a normal freeway to                   creased and the visual environment
               Dulles would have caused major                      is improved by such policies.
               land use effects. Building a special
               purpose freeway did not.

            be a widening of a major arterial.                  may well exceed the positive ones from
                 In all of these cases, the highway             building the highway..
            investment affects demand, and, there-                   Two special concerns must be men-
            fore, affects the quantity and pattern of           tioned. First, highways at the fringe of
            development. It also affects the rate at            cities tend to induce low-density devel-
            which development occurs. The change                opment, and this development may not
            in the rate of development depends upon             be sewered. There is a potential for sig-
            the overall rate of regional growth, the            nificant problems with sanitary sewage if
            change in accessibility, and several less           wastewater facilities are not provided or
            important factors such as zoning delays,            if the correct controls are not used.
            the time required to assemble parcels, etc.              Second, large industrial parks,
                                                                apartment complexes, and shopping
            The Resulting Impacts                               centers may locate near interchanges.
                                                                These areas may create major carbon
                 Highways are built to improve traffic          monoxide pollution problems because of
            flow. All else being equal, they should             the auto traffic they generate, and may be
            speed traffic, save people time, reduce             subject to Complex Source Regulations
            accidents, and reduce air pollution.                under the Clean Air Act.
            However, highways also attract develop-
            ment, and the positive impacts of the               Controlling The Effects
            highway can be eliminated by the in-
            duced development.                                       Controls designed to minin-dze the
                 Suburban sprawl, the most common               impacts of highway-induced develop-
            induced development, increases both the             ment must either reduce the amount of
            number of trips people take and the                 developable land or change the access
            length of those trips. More trips means             provided to it. Land use controls such as
            more traffic, so the development leads to           zoning, which reduce the amount of de-
            highway congestion, slower travel, more             velopable land, were discussed in Chap-
            accidents, and more air pollution. The              ter 1. Changing the highway capacity or
            negative impacts of the development                 service area often can also be an effective      37
<pb n="39" />

                 tool in minimizing adverse impacts.                  Further Sources
                      Reducing the highway's capacity
                 will often reduce the stimulus it provides                There have been, literally, hundreds
                 to land use changes. However, because                of highway impact studies looking at
                 the highway is usually related to ex-                land use, economic, and environmental
                 pected needs in the highway corridor,                changes from highway construction.
                 major changes in design capacity are                      For research on local highways and
                 difficult to implement in order to reduce            development, Economics, Planning, or
                 impacts in one particular area.                      Civil Engineering faculties at local uni-
                      Changing the service area may be                versities often have useful information.
                 more feasible. Eliminating an intersection           The state transportation department and
                 may be a practical way to limit develop-             metropolitan planning agencies may also
                 ment in a community: without the inter-              be good sources.
                 section, travel times to the community                    The Secondary Impacts of Sewers and
                 will be longer, and development will be              Highways on Development: A Bibliography,
                 reduced.                                             prepared for the CEQ, HUD and EPA
                      Routing the highways to reduce the              contains a useful discussion and listing
                 amount of land where development                     of studies on highway impacts. DOT also
                 could occur may also be desirable. Since             publishes summaries of its research on
                 the impact areas of highways may be                  this subject under the title Socio-Economic
                 large, it is seldom possible to eliminate            Effects of Highways.
                 development entirely. However, re-                        The Transportation Research Record
                 routing can reduce demand to a level                 and other publications of the Transporta-
                 where growth can be more easily                      tion Research Board (National Academy
                 managed.                                             of Sciences), contains a number of stud-
                      The detailed design of access around            ies on highway impacts.
                 the highway may be very important. Re-                    One classic book is The Urban Trans-
                 ducing the number of allowed curb cuts               portation Problem by Meyer, Kain, and
                 may convert strip developments into                  Wohl, the outgrowth of a Rand Corpora-
                 shopping centers, which could be a pre-              tion study on transportation, residential
                 ferred mode of development. Changing                 location, and sprawl. It was published in
                 the number of curb cuts may be espe-                 1965, but is still one of the best introduc-
                 cially attractive for small roads, since             tions to the field. There are also a number
                 fewer curb cuts concentrate development              of books in the popular press describing
                 and improve traffic flow and safety. The             the highway decision process and how to
                 amount of development may not be                     change it, such as Lupo's Rites of Way.
                 changed, but its pattern will.                            Specific references used in the chap-
                      For larger roads, interchange design            ter include the accessibility analysis of
                 and frontage roads will be important.                Sherman, et. al.; the by-pass and inter-
                 Eliminating frontage roads will reduce               change studies edited by Maiolo; the
                 development along the sides of the high-             early Atlanta analysis by Lemly; the
                 way. Controlling the use of land around              classic study of Route 128 around Boston
                 the interchanges, especially in the most             by Bone; and our own experience and
                 visible areas for travellers, will also con-         what we could gain from conversations
                 trol development. A sign by-law which                with many others.
                 limits large lighted signs could reduce
                 service stations, for example.
          38
<pb n="40" />

                                                         F   '77@                                        -N

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                                                                                                                  "WA

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<pb n="41" />

                 Mass Transit

                                             J
                                                                  7@

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                                                                    .7

                                                                          64
                                                                                              '17
                                                            ge                              V-7

                                                                                                              L

                     Toronto, Canada, built its first              bigger buildings on smaller lots, and
                 north-south transit line in 1954 to re-           have increased their profits.
                 place an overcrowded streetcar line                   The results have been important for
                 going down Yonge Street, the main                 the metropolitan area. Downtown is still
                 downtown business route. Since then it            a major center, and the rush to the sub-
                 has added an East-West line along Bloor           urbs has meant a rush to apartments
                 and Danforth Streets and expanded both            with good transit service and nearby
                 the University-Yonge and Bloor-Dan-               public open space. Contrary to trends in
                 forth lines to the suburbs. Toronto has           the United States, Toronto transit rider-
                 also been a leader in metropolitan growth         ship has remained high.
                 in the past two decades, and has built                The pictures show the sort of devel-
                 more office space downtown than any               opment which has occurred. Instead of
                 city in North America except New York.            sprawl throughout the area, develop-
                     Transit has been important in this            ment has concentrated around the transit
                 downtown development and in guiding               stations and feeder routes to them, and
                 dev'elopment in the whole metropolitan            open space has been left nearby.
                 area. High density satellite communities              Translating Toronto's experience to
                 have grown up near major transit sta-             new mass transit systems elsewhere is
                 tions and along routes leading to them.           not simple. The Toronto system has
                 Over 90% of new office construction and           facilitated metropolitan growth and has
                 about half of the new apartments have             led to concentrated uses around stations
                 been within walking distance of transit.          and a viable downtown. U.S. cities,
                     Toronto has sought this type of de-           however, have seen thirty years of sub-
                 velopment. Canada has not provided tax            urbanization and sprawl, and new tran-
                 incentives for single-family homes, so            sit cannot revitalize decaying downtown
                 apartments have been the prevalent                areas overnight. The land use effects of
                 mode of housing. The transit lines have
                 provided density incentives for offices           (above) Ibis photo dearly shows a clustering of urban devel-
                 and apartments which located near                 opment around two stations of the Toronto transit system.
                                                                   Advance planning maxiinizes transit benefits in these areas.
         40      them; builders have been able to build            Source: Toronto Transit Commission.
<pb n="42" />

                                                                                      7t.

                                                  N,

            transit in Toronto have been large, but              transit system can be valuable to down-
            the effects of new transit lines elsewhere           town commercial districts, increasing the
            will be slower and less pervasive.                   development of offices, stores, and other
                 Toronto does, though, show the                  intensive land uses there.
            types of effects which transit creates,                  Second, transit can lead to increased
            and what a policy favoring these land                density of development around its out-
            use changes can do. Planners of transit              lying stations. Areas within walking
            systems should consider whether they                 distance - perhaps one-third mile - of
            want such development around their                   a good transit system can be very attrac-
            stations, and what policies to use to at-            tive both for apartments and for com-
            tract or discourage it.                              mercial and industrial development..
                 Mass transit facilities tend to in-                 Finally, transit can also affect the use
            crease development around their sta-                 of land along its route. For instance, a
            tions. Like highways, fixed-route mass               radial transit line from a central city often
            transit systems increase demand for                  has "Park-and-ride"' stations in outlying
            development by irnprovm*g access. To be              areas which enable commuters going
            economical, they must locate on routes               downtown to park and use transit in-
            where the daily flow of people is greatest           stead of driving all the way. The transit
            - usually through developed areas to                 line will increase transportation capacity
            central business districts. Transit is much          along its route giving some improvement
            less flexible than the automobile with               in access to outlying residential areas.
            which it competes, but its ridership in-             The result may be an increase in low
            cludes the 20% of all households without             density development beyond the ring of
            cars, as well as those who take advan-               high density development.
            tage of its speed and low cost for com-                  Thus, three land use effects may
            muting to work, shopping, and other                  arise from a transit investment: increased
            destinations.                                        center city development, high density
                 There are several ways in which de-             uses around the transit stations, and low
            velopers may respond to the increased                (above) Induced development adjacent to Victoria Park Station
            demand induced by transit. First, a good             in Toronto. Source: Toronto Transit Comnussion.   41
<pb n="43" />

                  density development in areas served by
                  park-and-ride. All of these were shown,                 Sam Warner's book, Streetcar
                  to varying degrees, in the Toronto                      Suburbs, describes changes in
                  example.                                                Boston when the electric streetcar
                       The effect of transit on land use was              came in. People could then travel up
                  much larger before the automobile                       to six or eight miles to work. The re-
                  became the dominant mode of travel. But                 sult was the first real suburban
                  even today, many people still do not                    sprawl: between 1860 and 1900 the
                  have a car available. Most of them live in              extension of streetcar lines led to a
                  the cities, and while some are disad-                   land boom in new housing. Class
                  vantaged, many who could afford a car                   differences arose: the upper class
                  find transit fully sufficient for their                 moved to the country and commuted
                  needs. These households form a "captive                 by train; middle class people with se-
                  market" for transit - they must live                    cure jobs bought homes at the ends
                  where it is available, and they can usually             of streetcar radials; working class
                  go only where it goes. Because of this,                 families lived further intown near
                  they are a known market for develop-                    both radials and cross town links.
                  ment around transit stations, and their
                  demand for housing and services leads                 density, similar to that along a major
                  to higher density uses around the                     highway. Some development may con-
                  stations.                                             centrate along bus routes feeding into
                       Commercial development will be                   the station, but this will depend on how
                  attracted to busy transit stations. If there          frequently such routes are used and how
                  is a large flow of people to and from the             finTdy they are established. Most of the
                  stations, there is a good chance they will            induced development will be oriented
                  want to shop. For example, a market at a              toward automobile travel. The impact
                  park-and-ride station will get a good                 area is defined as the area in which the
                  amount of trade from people picking up                caritransit travel time to the central
                  groceries on their way home.                          business district, in the rush hour, is less
                                                                        than that for an automobile alone.
                  Defining the Impact Area
                                                                        The Supply of Developable Land
                       Two impact areas, related to how
                  users reach the transit system, should be                  The major land use effects will occur
                  defined for transit improvements.                     in the primary impact area around the
                       The primary impact area around any               transit station. Here, the development
                  station is represented by how far transit             demand will be most intense, particularly
                  users will walk. This distance may vary               if there is vacant land available. No build-
                  according to local conditions, but in most            ings need to be demolished in develop-
                  cases a circle with a radius of one-third             ing vacant land, so site preparation will
                  mile around the transit station should                be cheap and costs low. Only small par-
                  include all land in this primary impact               cels will be required, since development
                  area.                                                 will be localized and of fairly high
                       The second impact area is in subur-              density.
                  ban areas served by parkand-ride tran-                    After the vacant land is gone, devel-
                  sit, where transit riders drive their cars to         opment pressures may turn to land with
                  the transit system. Induced development               old or low value structures that can be
          42      within this area will be low or moderate              demolished or extensively renovated to
<pb n="44" />

                                                                                TRANSIT WPACT ZONES: QUINCY, MASSACHUSETTS
                                                                                 MAJOR STREET$ AND DETAILS OF AREAS NEAR STATIONS

                                                                                  *TRANSIT STATIONS        [Bog,

                                                                                           .................

                      NOR
                     STATIO
                                                     AREA
                                                  RKING:500 CARS
                                                                                    UINCY CENTER
                                                                                :j STATION PARKING:850

             make new profitable developments. The               Demand for Development
             air rights over the transit line may also be
             available for development, although                     Quantifying increased development
             costs of construction will be extremely             demand related to new transit invest-
             expensive and high rents will be needed             ment is difficult. Each system is unique
             to make the development profitable.                 and there is little experience to go by. As
                 In the larger impact area, the impor-           with highways, the general effect of
             tant land is largely the vacant develop-            transit systems is to increase demand
             able land considered suitable for large             because they increase accessibility. Such
             scale, low density uses. The major land             factors as regional growth and local attrac-
             use effect of mass transit will be the con-         tiveness are also important.
             version of vacant land to typical subur-                The extent to which a rapid transit
             ban apartments and single-family hous-              system increases demand depends upon
             ing. Redevelopment to higher densities              its likely impact on travel habits, which
             is unlikely, except possibly along major            in turn depends upon the ease of using
             feeder bus routes or in areas with good             highways and other transportation
             transit and highway service.                        modes. The demand for travel along the
                 Because the size of the primary im-             transit route is also an important influ-
             pact area around a transit station is               ence. Where auto travel is relatively
             limited, competition will cause the more            easy, or where origins and destinations
             profitable land uses in this area to dis-           of travelers are spread out, the rapid tran-
             place less profitable ones. This may                sit system is likely to attract relatively
             reduce the local diversity of land uses:            few riders and generate a relatively low
             residential areas will tend to become               demand for development. Thus, the
             more intensely developed with apart-                same conditions which lead to a success-
             ments (and supporting commercial                    ful transportation system tend to cause
             development), shopping areas will                   the system to have a high land use impact.
             attract more and larger retail outlets and               These conditions are particularly
             may displace existing older develop-                true for the primary impact zone. If there
             ment, and business districts will expand.           are lots of people riding on the system          43
<pb n="45" />

                         In 1971, the Massachusetts Bay
                    Transportation Authority opened a
                    rapid transit link from Boston to
                    Quincy, Massachusetts. The exten-
                    sion has had different impacts on
                                                              ly
                    land use at its three stations. In large
                    undeveloped North Quincy, a major
                    commercial/industrial complex has
                    been built. Wollaston station serves a
                    residential neighborhood of low to
                    medium density with little unde-
                    veloped land, and commercial and
                    apartment developments are also oc-
                    curring. In Quincy Center, (pg. 46) the
                    terminal facility has begun to bolster
                    existing commercial land uses.

                  there will be a high demand for apart-               outlying stops, the impact on demand is
                  ments and commercial developments to                 determined by the drive plus wait plus
                  serve them. Non-manufacturing busi-                  ride plus walk time compared to the time
                  nesses will also be attracted to stations,           required for driving directly to the des-
                  and the system will tend to stimulate the            tination. Significant park-and-ride use
                  type of development which it best serves.            will be made of the transit only if it is as
                  Over time, the development around the                fast and as cheap as driving to work, al-
                  stations will tend to attract more riders,           though some people like the ability to
                  which will increase the demand for                   read or work while riding. The demand
                  further development.                                 for this type of development also de-
                       Many businesses, such as insurance              pends upon the extent to which employ-
                  companies, require access to large num-              ment is concentrated along the transit
                  bers of employees, so they generally                 route and the rate of regional growth.
                  locate in the central city. Office develop-
                  ment here is likely to increase if access is         Forecasting Secondary Effects
                  improved, since employee parking is
                  presently a limiting factor for central                   This section will concentrate on the
                  business district development in many                impact area near the transit station. Land
                  cities.                                              use changes in the outer impact area can
                       However, industries may move from               be considered using the procedure sug-
                  the central business district because of             gested in the highway chapter. These
                  transit. Space becomes expensive in the              changes will probably be small, except in
                  city center because of the high demand               special cases which can best be identified
                  and it may be cheaper to move ten or                 locally.
                  twenty minutes travel away on a transit                   Since transit lines are usually routed
                  line than to stay in the city. Thus, there           to serve existing people and jobs, the
                  may be some demand for industry devel-               area around most stations will usually
                  opment along the transit line, if the level          have been developed already. Near these
                  of service is high.                                  ( above) Norffi Quincy office development visible in upper left,
          44           In the lower density impact area of             station in center.
<pb n="46" />

                              low
                                      7
                                        *  t"Al-
                                          If4

              stations, new development may be a                   increase in development density. But
              slow process. Early changes are likely to            this may require a large investment on
              be infill housing, splitting of residences           the same level as BART, the Toronto Sys-
              into apartments, and conversion of                   tem, or the Washington METRO. Even
              buildings from residential to commercial             then, the market for office space depends
              use. Larger apartments, stores, and office           on a large number of factors, and the
              developments will follow slowly, if the              effect of transit is only one. Transit can
              demand is moderate to high.                          concentrate demand for new develop-
                   A new transit system may also have              ment, but it cannot create it.
              stations built near undeveloped land,                     These three cases - the outlying
              either at the outer limits of the line or at         developed area, the outlying unde-
              sitesbetween older developed areas. At               veloped area, and the central city, show
              the outer end, apartment developments,               the ways in which transit can affect land
              shopping centers, and other suburban                 use change.
              high density construction are likely, as
              happened in Toronto and Cleveland,                   The Resulting Impacts
              where there was some suburban devel-
              opment on the airport extension line.                     Transit investments improve trans-
              Nearer the city, there may be an impor-              portation and access particularly for the
              tant shift of jobs from the center city to           poor and for non-drivers, it can also re-
              transit stations, as in Quincy, Massachu-            duce auto travel and pollution from cars.
              setts. This will depend on the demand                     The induced-development related to
              for office space in the central city. Both of        transit can accentuate these impacts. As
              these types of development can occur                 density rises near stations, more people
              quickly, even before the transit invest-             will use the system instead of their autos.
              ment is completed.                                   Housing built near stations will be con-
                  Areas in the central city may also be            ( left ) Wollaston station area; apartments are housing for the
              influenced by a new transit system. If it            elderly, station is at top with parking lot.
              brings many more people to the city for
                                                                   (above) Quincy Center area; station and parking garage in
              jobs or shopping, there will be a further            top left.                                          45
<pb n="47" />

                 venient for non-drivers. Further, the
                 high-density commercial and apartment                      Studies from 1920 to the present
                 developments will usually contribute                  have found that transit improve-
                 more in taxes than they require in ser-               ments will do little to counter the
                 vices because of the small number of                  decline of an area. In Cleveland, the
                 school age children in apartments com-                main transit line runs on old rail
                 pared to single-family homes.                         rights-of-way through industrial
                      There are, however, some special                 areas and depressed neighbor-
                 impacts related to various types of transit           hoods. Little transit-related devel-
                 investments. The concentrated develop-                opment has occurred. Camden, New
                 ment near stations will increase noise,               Jersey, is on the Lindenwold line
                 traffic congestion, and localize air pol-             between Philadelphia and several
                 lution. The character of the community                suburbs. The line may have helped
                 may also be changed from suburban or                  commercial establishments in Phila-
                 local commercial uses to major high-                  delphia, but it has led to a slight exo-
                 density intense uses. These impacts                   dus of commerce from Camden, and
                 should be considered in designing the                 to development east of Camden.
                 transit investment.

                 Controlling the Effects                             tion will determine how it reinforces or
                                                                     interferes with existing neighborhoods.
                      Much attention is currently being              If the line is built ahead of development,
                 given to rail rapid transit as a way in             new growth may occur at its outlying
                 which to lure travelers from excessive              stations rather than along its route.
                 reliance on automobiles. High density                    Finally, the station design and the
                 development around transit stations is              provision of parking are most important
                 thought desirable since it increases tran-          factors. If the station is not designed for
                 sit use. Land use controls are often used           pedestrian access, there is likely to be
                 to concentrate development into high                little development nearby. Large parking
                 density uses around the transit station             lots and kiss-and-ride loops may induce
                 instead of sprawled throughout the area.            relatively more low density suburban
                      Zoning is commonly used to do this,            development. If the station serves- as the
                 particularly by zoning areas near transit           starting point for bus distribution, land
                 for higher densities (in terms of area of           use change along the bus routes may
                 floor space compared to lot area). This             follow. The detailed flow patterns of
                 has been done in Toronto and San Fran-              people and cars around the station may
                 cisco, for example.                                 make development attractive or unattrac-
                      Another method is to encourage the             tive, and should be carefully considered
                 development of the air rights of the tran-          in system planning. This is also the por-
                 sit system. This can provide more hous-             tion of the investment decision most
                 ing and jobs, and thus lead to increased            amenable to local control.
                 ridership.
                      Modifying the transit investment can           Further Sources
                 change its land use effects. For instance,
                 if the stations are close together, the land             Most of the major transit systems
                 use effects will be smaller around each             have done impact studies related to land
                 one than if they are far apart. The route           use, and others are under way. Work on
          46     of the system and the location of the sta-          early transit system by Warner (Streetcar
<pb n="48" />

                    The Market Street area is the                 buildings with special entrances to
               center of San Francisco's business dis-            BART. Since bigger buildings could
               trict, but its importance was declining            be constructed on land near BART,
               up to a few years ago. Before the ad-              development was attracted and den-
               vent of the Bay Area Rapid Transit                 sities increased.
               system (BART), downtown was cap-                        The whole region has combined
               turing only 30 percent of all office               to aid BART and increase density
               construction in the area; after BART,              around it. For example, the Berkeley
               the rate is up to 60 percent. Market               City Council.turned down a shopping
               Street has become the most attractive              center partially because it was not
               area for new construction in the                   served by BART and downtown
               region.                                            Berkeley was.
                   Zoning regulations were changed
               to complement the BART system, by
               providing density bonuses for build-
               ings near stations, especially for

            Suburbs: The Process of Growth in Boston              The Economic and Social Impacts of Invest-
            1870-1900, 1974) and Spengler (Land                   ment in Public Transit by Sheldon and
            Value in Nezv York in Relation to Transit             Brandwein.
            Facilities, 1930) are valuable for historical              Major transit investments usually
            perspective on how land use changed                   require an environmental impact state-
            with the advent of streetcars and early               ment, and this may be a valuable source
            subways.                                              of information.
                 The two most studied systems are                      The definition of the local impact
            Toronto and the San Francisco (BART)                  area of transit as one-third mile around
            systems. Papers on the Toronto System                 the station came from studies of how far
            are available from the Toronto Transit                people walk to transit stations (see Wil-
            Comn-dssion and other sources (Heenan,                son, et al; Peterson; or MAPC, op. cit.).
            1972). Studies of land use change before              Air rights have been developed in Cleve-
            the opening of BART were done by Lee,                 land suburbs (Libicki, op. cit.). Dis-
            et al (1973) and post-opening studies are             cussion of the transit captive population
            in progress. Progress reports should be               may be found in Meyer, Kain, and
            available from the Metropolitan Trans-                Wohl's The Urban Transportation Problem
            portation Commission, Hotel Claremont,                (1965), and other sources.
            Berkeley, California 94705. There have
            also been studies of Boston (e.g., Metro-
            politan Area Planning Council, 1973; and
            Kalauskas, 1974), Philadelphia (e.g.,
            Boyce et al, 1972 and Gannon and Dear,
            1972) and other cities (see Libicki, "Land
            Use Impacts of Transit Improvements",
            1975).
                 Two useful general sources are The
            Secondary Impacts of Highways and Sewers
            on Development: A Bibliography, by En-
            vironmental Impact Center, Inc., and                                                                      47
<pb n="49" />

          4 S ewers

                       The relationship between sewer
                  construction and residential housing
                  construction is dramatically illustrated
                                                                                                               _V-
                  in Fairfax County, Virginia. Lying tothe
                  west of Washington, D.C., Fairfax
                  County is a rapidly growing residential
                  community for government workers. In
                  1963, the County published "A Western
                  County Development Policy" (which
                  pointed out that sprawl development
                                                                                                              4
                  raises costs of government services to                     W,
                  taxpayers) and recommended the adop-
                  tion of "urban satellite clusters" located
                  near the main highway to Washington.
                  Such a pattern of development would
                  save money for the taxpayers and leave
                  more open-space for the enjoyment of
                  residents.
                       In the following years the cluster             for land within the holding zone were
                  concept was consistently defeated by                granted and two one-third acre lot sub-
                  subdivision rezoning and by the power-              divisions were approved. There was
                  ful influence of the county sewerage                apparently little that the zoning officials
                  system. In 1969, responding to the fail-            could do. They were under pressure
                  ure of the cluster concept up to that time,         from developers, and, in such a situa-
                  the county planning staff recommended               tion, they found it difficult to deny the
                  the adoption of "holding zones" in rural            developers the right to connect to the
                  areas, where all development would be               sewer. Courts feel that access to a sewer,
                  deferred at least five years. It was hoped          which is after all a public health facility,
                  that these zones would encourage the                should not be denied to anyone who
                  satellite duster concept to take hold, and          wants it. The decision to build the sewer
                  cut down on leapfrogging, with its, high            effectively negated the attempt to keep
                  service costs.                                      the land from being developed. This
                       A holding zone was approved for                episode shows that in areas with heavy
                  the 2500 acre Middle Run area of the                growth potential, local level zoning and
                  Pohick Creek watershed in September                 planning processes often cannot control
                  1969. Much to the satisfaction of those             the development pressures which
                  wanting to control growth, it was pro-              sewers release.
                  posed that this zone would not be                       As the experience of Fairfax County,
                  opened for development until 1975.                  VirginiaY shows, sewers have a powerful
                       Unfortunately, the officials also              effect on the location, pattern, and timing
                  approved an extension of the sewer sys-             of single fan-&amp;y residential development.
                  tem into the Middle Run area at about               A variety of studies have found that
                  the same time, supposedly because the
                  funding for this line had been pre-                 above) Housing development in Prince George's County,
                                                                      Maryland, 1962. Subdivisions Eke this one are highly depen-
                  viously approved. The hope was ex-                  dent on the provision of interceptor sewers. Source: U.S.
                  pressed that the sewer would lie idle               Department of Agriculture.
                  for five years, but this was not to hap-            (opposite) Development around the Middle Run interceptor
          48      pen. Within months, rezoning petitions              sewer, Fairfax County, Maryland, as of late 1973.
<pb n="50" />

                                        POHICK CREE
                                         SEWER SHED

                                 -KEY

                        INTERCEPTOR SEWERS

                        SEWER SHED BOUNDARIES

                        MIDDLE RUN INTERCEPTOR SEWER
                        SERVICE AREA

                        SUBDIVISION DEVELOPMENTS

                                                                                                        49
<pb n="51" />

                                                                           WATE
                                                                           SOU'RSHED
                                                                              DARIES

                 sewered, vacant land in suburban com-                Third, communities may deliberately
                 munities is worth from two to four times             attract new development to new sewer
                 as much as equivalent unsewered land in              service areas in order to pay off construc-
                 the same communities.                                tion expenses through user charges and
                      American consumers, supported by                connection fees.
                 tax incentives, have always been at-                      The focus of this chapter is on "inter-
                 tracted to individual home ownership.                ceptor" or "'trunk" sewers. These are the
                 The land requirements for single-family              sewers that connect the treatment plant
                 housing are high, so subdivisions have               with the smaller "collect&amp;' sewers ser-
                 generally been located on the unpopu-                ving the individual homes or subdivi-
                 lated outskirts of cities. In the past, these        sions. Interceptors are constructed by
                 developments often had no sewers and                 local governments, although their cost is
                 were dependent for their wastewater                  usually heavily subsidized (to the tune of
                 disposal on septic tanks. This trend to              75% or more) by federal and state gov-
                 locate on the urban fringe continues                 ernments. Developers do not have to tie
                 today, but new development is becoming               into interceptors. As an alternative, they
                 increasingly dependent on sewer                      can construct small "'package" treatment
                 services.                                            plants (about 10,000 of these plants are
                      New development is attracted to                 built each year) which serve only the im-
                 areas served by sewers for a variety of              mediate development. However, the use
                 reasons. First, consumers prefer houses              of package plants is restricted by many
                 with sewers; septic tanks require main-              communities. They may not provide
                 tenance and are an undesirable respon-               effective treatment over the long term if
                 sibility. Second, increased concern for              they are not operated and maintained
                 the environment has prompted the ex-                 properly, and their full cost has to be
                 tensive (and expensive) construction of              paid by the developer. For these reasons
                 sewers in outlying areas and has made it             developers prefer land served by a mu-
                 more difficult to have septic tanks ap-              nicipal interceptor.
                 proved in moderately priced subdivi-        '
          50     sions with lots of one-half acre or less.              left ) Sewage treatment plant under construction, 1975.
<pb n="52" />

                                                                      WATERSHED
                                                                       NDARIES
                                                                      Bou KEP
               In the drawing at left, scattered de-                  WTE TOR
                                                                      COLLECTOR
               velopment is shown along rural                         SEWERS
               roads in a watershed at the edge of
               an urban region. At right, an inter-
               ceptor sewer has been built, paral-
               leling the route of alocal stream,
               enabling subdivisions to locate
               within the watershed boundary.
               Service is denied to development in
               adjoining watershed areas, so de-
               velopment which might have lo-
               cated there appears instead in the
               project service area. Once the sewer
               capacity is installed, it is very diffi-
               cult to control connections to them
               so long as excess capacity exists.

                 Interceptors are alway  s built with           tween existing towns and excess sewer.
            Idexcess capacity" - that is, capacity              capacity combine to give a strong incen-
            beyond that needed to handle the peak               tive for development as a side effect of
            flow from the present population of the             this regionalization. Local communities
            area served. This excess capacity is avail-         also often seek to bring sewers to as large
            able to developers to serve future pro-             an area as possible when they build. Not
            jects that might connect to the lines. The          wanting to interfere with the land mar-
            proportion of excess capacity provided              ket, they seek to spread the benefits of
            may vary from a low of ten or twenty                sewers toias many landowners as they
            percent of the used capacity up to several          can justify. To deny access to sewers.
            hundred percent. The high subsidies                 could lay town officials open to a suit,
            available encourage the construction of             for values of property outside the sewer
            large sewers with large amounts of                  service area may actually decline if they
            .excess capacity for growth. In addition,           were previously bid up by development
            design criteria for interceptors are always         speculation.
            conservative, tending to provide for even             . The two factors, the amount of ex-
            more excess capacity through over-                  cess capacity and the amount of vacant
            design. So long as excess capacity is               land served, are important determinants
            available, developers need only pay a               of the amount and pattern of &amp;velop-
            reasonable connection fee to satisfy their          ment resulting from an interceptor's
            wastewater management requirements.                 construction.
                 The high subsidy rates also tend to
            favor large projects that open up large             Defining the Impact Area
            areas for development all at once. This
            tends to promote low density, single-                    To minimize the cost of mechanical
            family subdivisions. In federally-funded            pumping, sewers are designed to flow
            projects, efforts to promote regional sys-          by gravity wherever possible, and are
            tems often result in several communities            usually built close to the routes of natural
            being tied together by long interceptors            streams. Their service areas, therefore,
            traversing vacant land. Cheap land be-              tend to correspond to natural watersheds          51
<pb n="53" />

                         One sewer interceptor project was              also important to consider the vacant
                    designed to serve the rapidly growing               land opened by regional projects in
                    Horn Lake Creek Drainage Basin in                   which a series of watersheds may be tied
                    the Tennessee/Mississippi interstate                together by cross-country interceptors.
                    area near Memphis. The engineers                         The project engineers are best able
                    first projected a population increase               to define the service area, and usually
                    from the original 34,000 in 1974 to                 provide this information on maps show-
                    208,000 in the year 2000. For the Mis-              ing the sewer's legal service area and
                    sissippi part of the area, one engineer             watershed boundaries. Sewer author-
                    predicted the ultimate population                   ities will have information on the pro-
                    would be 265,000; another predicted                 cedures for obtaining connections to the
                    337,000. The estimates were never                   sewer system by development outside
                    reconciled, but the higher one was                  the legal service area.
                    used. The final design had enough                   The Supply of Developable Land
                    capacity to serve 410,000 people,
                    twelve times the initial population.                     Sewers affect land use predomi-
                                                                        nantly by increasing the supply of devel-
                    development outside of one water-                   opable land. The amount of increase
                  shed cannot connect to a sewer in a                   depends upon the amount of vacant land
                  neighboring watershed without expen-                  the sewer serves, and its excess capacity.
                  sive pumping. A 'legal" service area may                   As mentioned in Chapter 1 and in
                  also be defined which limits the area                 the preceding sections, the amount of
                  within which connections to the system                developable land is determined by phy-
                  are automatically granted; connections                sical, legal, and 'economic factors. Even
                  outside the legal service area but within             though it lies within the service area,
                  the watershed boundary can be allowed                 steep slopes are not likely to be devel-
                  but require special permission.     *                 oped unless there is a very high demand.
                      Where land is completely flat, as in              Sewage collection facilities serving
                  river delta regions, watershed bound-                 homes on steep hillsides can be expen-
                  aries do not exist. In these areas, gravity           sive to construct. Land that lies in par-
                  flow is provided entirely by the inclina-             ticularly low areas, below the service
                  tion of pipes in the ground. This limits              level of the sewer, is effectively excluded
                  service area size severely, as laying pipes           from development.
                  at depths greater than 14 feet is prohib-                  Legal restrictions may eliminate
                  itively expensive. Mechanical 'lift sta-              some of the land from development if it
                  tions" must be built- to transfer sewage              has been set aside in parks, wildlife ref-
                  between segments of inclined pipe in                  uges, and so forth. However, as pointed
                  flat service areas.                                   out at the beginning of this chapter,
                       Where watershed boundaries are                   zoning by itself is unlikely to keep an
                  defined " they represent a project's impact           area out of development if sewer ser-
                  area. Legal service areas, even if they are           vice is available.
                  smaller than the watershed area, seldom                    .Economically, sewers are unlikely,
                  curtail development because connection                by themselves, to stimulate redevelop-
                  permits are usually easy to obtain. Where             ment except in instances where the exist-
                  watershed boundaries are not defined,                 ing land use is of particularly low value
                  the impact area may be defined as all                 (possibilities include sites containing
          52      land within 1000 feet of the sewer. it is             marginal industries and scattered inex-
<pb n="54" />

                     The city of Tulsa, Oklahoma,                    ing stock, recent land transactions within
                and its suburb, Broken Arrow,                        the project impact area, the quality of
                share rapid economic growth. Long                    local amenities, and the amount of
                                                                     sewered, developable land available
                an important oil town, Tulsa has                     elsewhere in the region.
                diversified and continues to grow.
                An expressway was built to Broken                    Forecasting Secondary Effects
                Arrow to help commuters to reach
                the central city. Despite the heavy                       If the sewer services'extensive
                demand for residential development                   amounts of vacant land, particularly
                on the intervening land, environ-                    when the individual parcels are large,
                mental considerations required new                   the induced development is likely to be
                sewerage capacity before develop-                    low density. Significant amounts of leap-
                ment could start. When federal                       frogging will also occur as developers
                funding for sewers became available                  search for the lowest priced available
                rapid development occurred on land                   parcels, which are likely to be far away
                which previously was almost vacant.                  from existing development. Little in-
                                                                     filling will occur initially because it is
             pensive homes). Sewers typically have                   easier for the developer to-start fresh
             their greatest impact on the construction               with a large piece of land rather than fit
             of single family homes, and thes     'e are             the housing in with existing develop-
             most likely to be built where there are                 ment, and because.the price of land in
             large tracts of undeveloped land. The                   partially urbanized areas is typically
             construction of a sewer will make such                  higher than it is at the urban fringe. The
             sites suitable for medium (two dwelling                 rate of development will depend pre-
             units per gross acre) and higher density                dominantly on how much demand there
             development, where it otherwise would                   is for development, and how much other
             only be suitable for lower density                      sewered, vacant land is also available.
             development.                                                 If the sewer opens up only a mod-
                  If there are relatively large amounts              erate amount of vacant land for develop-
             of such sewered vacant land already, the                ment, the pattern of development is
             construction of a new sewer will have                   likely to be somewhat different. There
             relatively little impact on supply. If the              will be more infilling, and less oppor-
             supply of such land is tight in the area,               tunity for leapfrogging out into   ' rural
             the construction of a new sewer can have                areas. The price of land in the service
             significant irnpacts@.                                  area will be somewhat higher, and as a
                                                                     result, the development will be some-
             Demand for Development                                  what denser. All in all, the development
                                                                     will be more compact and of higher den-
                  Demand for development within a                    sity particularly if the demand for devel-
             sewer service area is unaffected by the                 opment is high. If the demand is only
             construction of the sewer itself. Estima-               moderate, the land prices will not in-
             tions of development demand may,                        crease as fast, and, therefore, develop-
             therefore, be carried out as discussed in               ment will be of lower density, but still
             Chapter 1, without any special additional               not as low as in the previous case.
             considerations. Demand estimation                            Oddly enough, if the investment is
             should include consideration of the local               not made at all or if it opens up very little
             vacancy rate, the condition of local hous-              vacant developable land, the effect may              53
<pb n="55" />

                                                                    V

                                                                           41

                                                                           Y-i

                                                                                                         414

                                                                                a" ,

                                                                      "IN
                                                                                                             4

                  again be to stimulate leapfrogging. This            The Resulting Impacts
                  is because the land in the service area
                  will become so high priced that it will pay              Sewers are built expressly to handle
                  the developer to go outside the service             an environmental problem - the dis-
                  area for cheaper land even if he has to             posal of community sanitary wastes.
                  build his own package treatment plant.              They are intended to prevent contamina-
                  If the developer is doing this, he is un-           tion of surfaces and ground waters from
                  affected by the location of the sewer and           improperly functioning septic tanks,
                  will look for the cheapest land available,          guard against disease, and transport
                  which is likely to be significantly beyond          wastes to locations where they may be
                  the bound of existing urbanization.                 treated and safely discharged. Ironically,
                       Thus, it is primarily the relative             by tending to attract extensive develop-
                  supply of vacant developable land                   ment, sewers may create several environ-
                  opened up by the sewer than determines              mental problems in solving one.
                  the pattern and density of residential                   Sewers, like highways, can lead to
                  development. The relative demand has                the conversion of large areas of land to'
                  some affect on these two factors, but a             residential development. This develop-
                  bigger effect on how quickly the develop-           ment often causes serious sedimentation
                  ment occurs.                                        and erosion problems, both from con-
                       The construction of sewers per se              struction activities and from the creation
                  usually has little direct impact on com             of large areas of impervious ground sur-
                  mercial or industrial development. In               face (rooftops, roads, driveways, parking
                  both instances, other factors are likely to         'lots, etc.). Air pollution is aggravated due
                  be much more important, and the facil-              to increases in local traffic and the burn-
                  ities can usually afford to build their own         ing of fuels to heat houses. While ground
                  wastewater treatment plant if other loca-           water quality is protected by the use of
                  tional advantages exist, but there is no            sewers, local stream quality may actually
                  public sewer.
                                                                      (above) Sewer under construction, 1970. Source: Waterworks
          54                                                          and Waste Disposal Division, Winnipeg, Manitoba.
<pb n="56" />

                                                                 filling and lower population projections
                   In its wild state, Tahoe was a lake           are often equally reasonable. Reducing
              of matchless clarity and beauty. But               the capacity of the lines to serve only the
              many homes and lodges were built                   existing population prevents induced
              near it, polluting the waters with sew-            development, but a rational community
              age. Nevada's government went to                   land use policy usually should provide
              lengths to build facilities that provide           for some growth.
              advanced treatment for the sewage.                      Reducing the capacity of the system
              The natural resource was thought                   does not necessarily reduce environ-
              saved.                                             mental impacts an equal amount. Large
                   However, these facilities per-                amounts of land can still be developed,
              mitted more motels, apartments, and                though at a lower population density.
              casinos to be constructed. Although                Therefore, reducing the size of the ser-
              pollution from sewerage is now                     vice area may also be necessary. Shorten-
              small, increased eutrophication,                   ing the length of lines is a practical
              scenic degradation, and air pollution              constraint on land development: though
              have completely changed the area.                  all land within the project watershed
                                                                 may technically be able to use the inter-
                                                                 ceptor, developers will be reluctant to
            be degraded by the release at a single               lay long lines of their own to connect.
            point of large quantities of treatment               The interceptor's capacity and length
            plant effluent, and by the increased                 may be adjusted to encourage localized
            stormwater runoff.                                   higher density (multi-family) develop-
              . The economic impacts of sewer con-               ment, or consolidated areas of single
            struction may also be large if there is              family development. Both control tech-
            rapid local population growth. These are             niques also reduce the costs of the pro-
            discussed in detail in Chapter 1. The                ject to the community.
            provision of municipal services (espe-                    Breaking down a project into succes-
            cially schools) and physical facilities              sive stages of construction is also useful,
            (roads and water supply) will put a heavy            and has two side effects. First, it con-'
            additional financing burden on develop-              fines immediate development to smaller
            ing areas.                                           areas and reduces leapfrogging. Second,
                                                                 the resulting population forecasting
            Controlling the Effects                              period, is shorter; it therefore allows for
                                                                 more accurate population projections,
                 To reduce adverse impacts of                    and gives flexibility if population growth
            induced growth due to sewer projects,                departs from predictions. Such phasing,
            the project may be modified in several               if intelligently planned, is unlikely to
            ways.                                                increase project costs significantly. Any
                Reducing the capacity of the sewer               increased costs should be balanced by
            pipe itself reduces the ultimate popu-               the benefits of better community plan-
            lation theproject may serve. Often inter-            ning and a lessening of the immediate
            ceptor sewer projects are sized according            financial burden of the project on
            to the zoh ing of the service area, on the           present residents. It is likely that some.
            assumption that the area will become                 sort of clear schedule for phasing will
            totally developed as zoned'. Such popu-              be required by the courts if this alter-
            lation projections may become self-ful-              native is implemented.                            55
<pb n="57" />

           U-1
<pb n="58" />

                Where the impacts of a sewer project          lines, and preparing a manual for pre-
           will put a severe strain on a local commu-         dicting secondary effects, to stimulate
           nity, a moratorium on all sewer construc-          better consideration of sewer induced
           tion is sometimes imposed as a last                development in project planning.
           resort. This effectively halts all new
           local development until more sewer
           capacity is built. Such moratoria remain
           highly controversial as growth control
           tools: some communities have used them
           in bad faith to prevent the construction
           of multi-family or low income housing,
           and they may cause developers to build
           scattered developments beyond the
           urban fringe where the land is cheap
           enough to compensate for the need to
           construct a package treatment plant. Nor
           are courts likely to permit such moratoria
           to remain in effect for more than one and
           a half to two years.

           Further Sources

                Interest in the link between sewers
           and land use conversion has emerged
           only comparatively recently, so the exist-
           ing literature is slender.
                The introductory example for this
           chapter was taken from Jeffrey Stans-
           bury's article "Suburban Growth - A
           Case Study" (1972). Despite its sarcastic
           view of the role of local government in
           urban development, this piece has re-
           ceived widespread circulation and gives
           an enlightening view of the dynamics
           of suburbanization's dependence on
           sewers.
                A 1974 study by Urban Systems Re-
           search &amp; Engineering, Inc., Interceptor
           Sewers and Suburban Sprawl, also includes
           a number of case studies. The Secondary
           Impacts of Highways and Sewers on Develop-
           ment. A Bibliography by the Environmen-
           tal Impact Center contains further
           references.
                EPA expects to increase the number
           of Environmental Impact Statements it
           prepares on sewer projects, and is pres-           (opposite) A 54 inch interceptor sewer.being constructed in
           ently revising its project design guide-           Stratford, Conn. in 1973. Source: CE Maguire, Inc. 57
<pb n="59" />

         5 Other Infrastructure Investments

                                                                    e13

                                                  DALLAS FT WORTH
                                                  AIRPORT

                           ....... ....

                                                               39\
                            roRt WORTK

                                     ..........

                      Highways, mass transit, and sewers            several kinds, but impose strong nega-
                 are the most common, but not the only,             tive impacts on nearby areas in the form
                 infrastructure investrnents having strong          of noise, air pollution, and traffic.
                 effects on development. Other types of                  New employment centers can have
                 investments, such as those introduced in           important land use effects, and can have
                 this chapter, can also induce significant          important secondary financial impacts
                 local development. This process will not           on communities, inducing additional
                 be described in detail here, but the gen-          development. These issues are discussed
                 eral methodology for assessing likely              in the second section.
                 impacts, used in the previous chapters,                 Parks, recreation or entertainment
                 can also be applied to them. If one                facilities can promote second home de-
                 understands how an infrastructure in-              velopments, and require housing, transit
                 vestment affects the supply of develop-            services and support f or employees. Rec-
                 able land and the demand for develop-              reational development can impose heavy
                 ment, one can estimate the development             costs on local government, and can have
                 that will be induced by it.                        major environmental impacts on the
                      One type ofinvestment that can                sensitive ecologies typical of such areas.
                 have a large impact on development,                These are covered in the third section.
                 similar to that resulting from sewer                    The next decade will see a large
                 investments elsewhere, is the provision            amount of investment in energy facil-
                 of water supplies. In and regions, the             ities such as mines and power plants.
                 water requirements for development                 These facilities have often induced
                 and the analysis of their impacts can be           "boom-town" growth in remote rural
                 carried out in essentially the same man-           areas, with severe social, economic, and
                 ner as that described for sewers.                  environmental impacts; they are dis-
                      The remaining sections of this chap-          cussed in the fourth section.
                 ter describe a number of other major                    Flood control dams are the topic of
                 types of investments.
                      Airports are the topic of the first           (above) Development sites near Dallas/Ft. Worth Airport.
                                                                    Source: Business Week, adapted by Urban Systems Research
          58     section. Airports attract development of           and Engineering, Inc.
<pb n="60" />

             Development near Dallas/Fort                       9. Forum 303 shopping mall
             Worth Airport                                    10. Six Flags Business Park (500-
                                                                  acres, $250-million)
              1. Metroport, a $125-million office             11. Harbor Lakes, 379-homes
                 complex                                      12. Century 21, 311-acre, $ISO-
              2. Flower Mound, -a 4,500 acre new                  million residential and
                 town                                             shopping area
              3. Lion Country Safari                          13. Lewisville Valley, 1,300-acre,
              4. Seven Seas Amusement Park                        $200-million residential, com-
              5. Turnpike Stadium (baseball)                      mercial, and industrial develop-
              6. Texas Stadium (football)                         ment
              7. Six Flags Over Texas Amuse-                  14. Brookhollow/Arlington, a 270-
                 ment Park                                        acre business park
              8. Bedford Forum, 716-acre com-
                 mercial and residential develop-
                 ment

           the last section. They can promote exten-          opening of the airport was frenzied: val-
           sive construction in the areas they pro-           ues multiplied by ten times in the. five
           tect from flood damage, though these               years prior to the project's completion.
           areas are often environmentally unsuit-                The irony of this speculation is that
           able for development.                              the price of land has often risen beyond
                                                              its potential value for actual develop-
           Airports                                           ment. Some land previously valued at
                                                              $5,000 per acre cost $50,000 by the time
                The new airport serving Dallas and            the airport opened. Only high intensity
           Fort Worth iswithout precedent in the              commercial or residential development
           scale and arnibitiousness of its design. It        can afford such high land prices, and the
           is also the only major new airport to be           market for office buildings and luxury
           constructed in the country in recent               apartments in the area has not been
           years. Though its planners took unusual            adequate to develop all these parcels.
           pains to anticipate and control secondary              As a result, competition for develop-
           impacts of the airport, the project is so          ment is intense among the 20 towns and
           large that growth in the airport region            cities of the area. The North Texas Coun-
           has been feverish. According to one                cil of Governments is trying to use vol-
           major landholder, "The airport is prob-            untary acceptance of comprehensive
           ably the most important significant pro-           zoning programs to create compatible
           Ject in the U.S. in the last 20 years in           land uses and balanced economic bases
           terms of its impact on real estate values."        for new communities serving the airport,
                Homes, officesf motels, ware-                 but the obstacles are great. Communities
           h buses, stores, industrial plants, and            lack money to build the extensive sewers,
           recreational facilities have sprung up             roads and utilities necessary to support
           in the 35 mile wide area separating                balanced communities, and are tempted
           Dallas and Fort Worth. A 4,500 acre new            to zone unwisely to maximize their im-
           town, Flower Mound, has been con-                  mediate revenue needs. A disporportion-
           structed jus t north of the Airport's 17,000       ate amount of land has been zoned for
           acres. Speculation in land prior to the            commercial use, and much too little for         59
<pb n="61" />

                     parks and other open space. In many                    commercial air traffic expanded, noise
                     communities, the airport itself removed                and air pollution impacts in these local
                     large amounts of. land from the tax base.              areas were tolerable. Since then, local
                         While a great deal of land has been                community dissatisfaction with airport
                     zoned for high density use, it does not                operations has risen. Simultaneously,
                     all lie along planned transportation cor-              many airports have increased their opera-
                     ridors. Local roads are as yet inadequate              tions and expanded their runways to ac-
                     to serve these areas efficiently, and the              commodate bigger planes, compounding
                     unplanned dispersed pattern of develop-                the problem.
                     ment makes the contemplated develop-                        While studies have differed over
                     ment of a rail rapid transit system an                 the impact of airports on local land
                     inefficient solution to transportation                 values, residents fear that their proper-
                     needs.                                                 ties are devalued relative to the rest of
                         In short, for all the economic bene-               the region. They feel locked in because
                     fits the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport has                 they often cannot move. The cost of re-
                     provided already, it has created many                  developing entire impact areas to com-
                     long range problems for successful re-                 patible land uses is a tremendous under-
                     gional development. While the attempt                  taking that cities usually cannot afford.
                     to prevent development on the most                     Tax relief to area residents to compen-
                     noise-affected areas by including them                 sate them. for their economic, environ-
                     within the airport boundary showed                     mental, and psychological burden has
                     vision, more effort could have been made               been suggested, but is not really a
                     to assist compatible. development around               solution.
                     the site.                                                   The second obstacle to compatible
                         Airports have far-reaching irn
                                                          I Pacts           land use seems paradoxically opposite to
                     on the economic life of communities, as                the first; it is the competition among
                     the experience at Dallas/Ft. Worth points              towns abutting the large airport land
                     out. They may also impose serious ad-                  holdings for airport-associated develop-
                     verse impacts on adjoining areas because               ment. Some commercial and industrial
                     of noise, air pollution, and commercial                facitities making extensive use of air
                     growth. Certain land uses are compatible               transportation for deliveries will try to
                     with airport impact zones: noise-proofed               locate next to the airfield. Hotels, motels,
                     offices-, hotels, retail outlets, industries,          car rental offices and other commercial
                     and certain indoor sport facilities are the            undertakings serving the traveling public
                     main ones. Other land uses are incom-                  are also willing to pay high premiums for
                     patible; these include schools, hospitals,             airport sites. However, the market for
                     churches, parks and all types of housing.              passenger service sites is small, and is
                          It is very difficult to redevelop land            usually confined inside airport sites and
                     in the airport environs to compatible-                 along access roads; also competition to
                     uses for two basic reasons. First, most air-           sell land to the few airport-related manu-
                     ports are located within at least partially            facturing firms is -often so great that land
                     developed areas, where the existing mix                prices in nearby industrial zones are not
                     of land uses may be incompatible with it-              significantly different from those of other
                     self as well as with the airport. Since they           industrial land in the region. As is true
                     are employment centers, airports often                 near the Dallas airport, much more land
                     have created significant concentrations of             is likely to be zoned industrial than can
                     nearby employee housing. Until the late                be sold for industrial purposes.
             60      fifties, when jets were introduced and                      The most powerful way to control
<pb n="62" />

          land use around airports, provided the
          land is presently vacant, seems to be ad-                        P-1
                                                                     @7.
          vance land acquisition. If development
          already exists, land must be purchased
          by a redevelopment authority, and the
          structures demolished. The property
          must then be resold (with restrictive use
          covenants), or leased to industry or com-
          merce, so that the airport authority con-
          trols nearby development instead of just
          forcing it further away. Since commercial
          and industrial land usually has a low rate
          of absorption, revenues for sale or lease
          will be slow coming in.
                                                                                             ARN_
          Industrial and Commercial Centers

               Industrial and commercial centers
          have the potential to induce urbaniza-            water, to leave the town. This exodus
          tion, as was clearly demonstrated    in the       removed the primary market for many
          Green River Valley outside of Seattle,            of the.local farmers, dealing them
          Washington, in the late 1960's.                   another blow.
               In 19651 the Boeing Company chose                 The Boeing plant, in effect, has
          to locate a new.aerO'space center, totally       'committed at least five square miles of
          isolated from any existing urban devel-           rural land to urban uses. As of 1975, the
          opment, in the, middle of a@ cow pasture          level of development has not reached the
          in the. town of Kent. It then requested           saturation levels implicit in the expen-
          that Kent provide a water distribution            sive infrastructure so far installed, but
          system. Ostensibly to optimize the eco-           land in:prime areas of Kent is now sell-
          n,omics of water distribution, Kent de-           ingat $20,000- per acre. Whether this is
          signed its system to service approxi-             good or bad cannot be concluded; it is,
          mately five square miles of land, and             though, a very major change brought
          declared a Limited Improvement Dis;-              about by the Boeing plant and decisions
          trict assessment of $1,000 per acre. This         related to it.
          assessment was a serious blowto local                  American urban growth is continu-
          farmers, who had no need for the level            ing to decentralize away from major
          of service provided.                              cities. The trend in residential land use
               In 1967, the need to provide waste           continues in the- direction of low density,
          collection and treatment for the Boeing           but. now it is supported by major indus-
          plant encouraged Kent to join the re- -           trial and commercial centers within the
          gional sewer district. Major sewers were          suburbs themselves. Where commuting
          built, resulting in an additional assess-         to jobs in the central city was once the
          ment to land in the Limited Improve-              rule, plants like Boeing's now tend to
          ment District of $300 per acre. Simul-            locate in fringe suburban areas. Even
          taneously, the charge for sewer service           firms with high clerical employment,
          (based on the amount of water used) was
          increased, forcing all the local canning          (above) Bell Telephone Laboratories, Holmdel, New Jersey,
                                                            1966. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculhire, Soil Conserva-
          industries, which used large amounts of           tion Service.                                   61
<pb n="63" />

                                                                  effects. As seen in the Boeing example,
                             V@                                   the effects need not be based on realized
                                                                  economic benefits from these plants: the
                                                                  town of Kent installed *infrastructure for
                                  0"
                                                                  expected growth which still has not oc-
                                  -4-1 MI-
                                    @Z I'l-                       curred ten years later. But Boeing's inde-
                                    7_-    _41er
                                                        4.        pendent decision to build the plant
                                                                  forced the town of Kent into a number of
                                                                  decisions it would, not. otherwise have
                                                                  made, and committed it to urbanize a
                                                                  prime agricultural area.
                                                                       Other employment centers have had
                                                                  major- effects: the Kennedy Space Center
                                                                  at Cape Canaveral, Florida stimulated.-
                                                                  ex
                                                                    tensive development of Brevard.,-
                                                                  County during the 1960's; the Atomic -
                                                                  Energy Commission and the National
                                                                  Bureau of Standards along the interstate
                 such as m*surance companies, may locate          highway north of Washington, D.C.
                 in the suburbs away from mass transit.           have stimulated development along a
                 Similarly, regional shopping malls are           60-mile corridor leading to Frederick,
                 supplanting local shopping centers, of-          Maryland.
                 fering a wider selection of goods plus                The negative effects of employment
                 single trip convenience. The location of         centers on local communities are intrin-
                 these industrial and commercial centers          sically less severe from an economic
                 in undeveloped areas has induced addi-           point of view than other infrastructure
                 tional urbanization.                             facilities we have reviewed. Economi-
                      One example is the small shopping           cally, they have many positive impacts,
                 center located outside a rural town.             increasing local employment and local
                 Because of the high use and convenience          tax revenues, at least if the community
                 of automobiles in uncongested rural              does not overreact like Kent. The en-
                 areas, these shopping centers can prof-          vironmental and social impacts, how-
                 itably locate away from built up areas,          ever, are still of concern.
                 They offer new facilities and easy park-              The environmental impacts of em-
                 ing, so they often take much business            ployment centers mainly come from the
                 away from existing establishments in             familiar sprawl development patterns
                 town. @                                          that they induce. Industrial plants such
                      But in turn these centers can induce        as Boeing's leapfrog to outlying areas to
                 a strip of commercial development con-           take advantage of low land prices, vir-
                 necting them to the town; other new              tually committing the intervening land
                 businesses take advantage of the com-            to extensive low density infill. develop-
                 paratively greater traffic on the access         ment.
                 route to the shopping center, causing                 The social impacts of these land use
                 further erosion of the town's original           change may be severe; the community's
                 businesses and the reinforcement of              whole employment base may shift to
                 sprawled out development.
                      Larger industrial or commercial               left ) Shopping center development, Newton, Massachu-
          62     centers have commensurately greater              setts, 1966.
<pb n="64" />

                                                                 to allow the designers to control land use
                                 ORLANDO                         and access around the 100 acre theme
                                                                 park. The Reedy Creek Improvement
                                                                 District was authorized by Florida to
                                                                 give the Disney World developers
                                                                 authority to govern and control the
                                                                 larger area.
                                                                      This careful planning was only par-
            WALT  DISNEY WORLD                                   tially effective. As planned, access to the
                                                                 park is through undeveloped land on
              Par
                                                                 Disney's property. The company has
                                                                 room for its resort hotels, golf courses,
                                                                 airports (a STOL port, and a planned jet-
                                                                 port), and new town. But the plan did
                                           INDUCED               not control the land use impacts of the
                                           DEVELOPMENT
                                                                 park on the regional level.
                                       N   0          5 mi.
                                                                      Interstate 4 from Orlando to Tampa
                                                                 provides access to the park. Over 20,000
           new occupations, and population growth                motel rooms have been constructed
           may be dramatic.                                      along 1-4 since 1970. Leapfrogging apart-
                Controls on the effects of new em-               ment developments were built behind
           ployment centers must address both the                the motels on the sites of old orange
           location of new center (to reduce leap-               groves.
           frogging), and the configuration of the                    Two other major theme parks are
           secondary development which follows                   nearby - Sea World (with porpoises,
           it. Controls on facility location are inevit-         whales, aquariums, and so forth) five
           ably controversial: communities do not                miles north, and Circus World (planned
           want to jeopardize potential new tax                  to be another giant park like Disney
           revenue and employment by imposing                    World, and the new winter home of the
           unpalatable restriction. Controls on                  Ringling Brothers Barnum and Bailey
           secondary development are less contro-                Circus) five miles south. To a business
           versial.                                              serving tourists, the advantages of locat-
                                                                 ing in this area are clear.
           Recreation and Entertainment Facilities                  . As a result of the induced develop-
                                                                 ment, 14 may have to be widened to
                When Disney World was planned                    handle the added traffic, ground water
           for Florida, the designers decided    'to cor-        pollution is a major problem, and the
           rect a mistake made in Disneyland.                    provision of services to the unincorpo-
           Disneyland only included the imme-                    rated areas is expensive and difficult.
           diate park area, but its large number of              The original efforts to control land use
           visitors attracted further development                by buying adjacent land were reason-
           which surrounded the park. The Disney                 able, but the boom town growth of the
           Corporation had no control over this -                Orlando region and the lack of land use
           development, and could neither require                control outside Disney's site were unex-
           compatible uses nor receive income gen-               pected and have to some extent defeated
           erated in part because of the existence               the original intentions.
           of Disneyland. Walt Disney World was                  ( left ) Orlando[Walt Disney World area. Development shown
           planned to be much larger (27,000 acres)              near all interchanges along 1-4.                   03
<pb n="65" />

                                                                           above. Since they often occur in rural
                                                                           areas, they can transform (or even con-
                                                                           trol) the local economy. Seasonal facil-
                                                            80AT k'AIIP    ities may lead to summer populations
                                                                           several times larger than winter popula-
                                                                           tions, or vice versa.
                                  4i                                             Many recreation areas occur in en-
                                                                           vironmentally sensitive areas, such as
                                                                           lakes, rivers, coastal zones, and moun-
                                                                           tain tops. Development of these areas

                                                                                 even destroy the natural amenities
                                                                           may have serious ecological impacts, and
                                                                           may
                                                                           which produce recreational value.
                                                                                 Control of these facilities is difficult.
                                                                           They tend to be built in rural areas which
                                                                           have no experience with land use con-
                                                                           trols. The positive impacts - tourist
                    L
                                                                           dollars - are stressed, and the fact that
                         Not all parks and recreation facilities           these dollars may go to new residents
                    are like Disney World. Few are built in                and that service costs may rise is ignored.
                    boom regions like Orlando. But other                   Effective control may be impossible ex-
                    recreation facilities induce similar devel-            cept at the state level, although local
                    opment in service industries, housing                  goverru-nents still have the authority and
                    and other recreation. Service industries               responsibility to analyze carefully the
                    are most significant. Tourists need res-               potential impacts of individual projects
                    taurants, lodging, transportation and                  which are proposed. Many recent land
                    other services, and these will grow up                 use controls focus on developments af-
                    around a recreation investment, whether                fecting land use beyond the local jurisdic-
                    it is a ski slope, a park, an artificial lake          tion in which they are built. These de-
                    or an historic village.                                velopments and their impacts should be
                         Housing comes next. Part of the                   reviewed by state or regional land use
                    housing will be second homes for the                   agencies before construction begins.
                    skiers, fishermen, or others who use the
                    area. If the recreation area is big, housing           Mining and Energy Fadlities
                    will have to be built for employees work-
                    ing in local service industries.                             Sweetwater County, Wyoming used
                         Other recreation investments may                  to be a railroad and coal mining town.
                    follow the initial one. Disney World has               It even had limited agriculture and
                    been joined by Sea World, and may be                   sheep grazing, though the local climate
                    followed by Circus World as well. A suc-               is dry.
                    cessful ski area may expand or be joined                     After World War II Sweetwater suf-
                    by others on nearby mountains. A park                  fered from the national decline of rail-
                    may be surrounded by animal farms,                     roading. Seventeen hundred Sweetwater
                    dude ranches, or other tourist attrac-                 residents were employed by the rail-
                    tions. All combine to increase the amount              roads in 1950; only 300 are so employed
                    of regional development.                               now. In the sixties, however, growth
                         The impacts of these developments                 ( left ) Lake Sebago, Maine. A multi-purpose recreation area
            64      can be as large as any of those discussed              that has induced substantial development nearby.
<pb n="66" />

           picked up, starting with the construction                       MOUNTAIN STATES
           of the large Flaming Gorge Dam. Trona
           mining (which produces industrial soda                                       NORTH DAKOTA
           ash) steadily grew and oil and gas pro-                       MONTANA
           duction expanded.
               By 1973 Sweetwater was in the
           throes of an indus trial boom. Its mining                                       SOUTH DAKOTA
           projects were augmented by the con-
           struction of the Jim Bridger Power Plant,                       WYOMING
           which required more labor and boosted
           the population growth rate to an annual                       M&amp;N 4   e111
           co   ound rate of 20%. Construction                      UTAH      I
             mp                                                               41"011111
           employment was 400 in 1970; in 1975 it is                              COLORADO
                                                                                                MA OR ENERGY
           more than 4800 and growing. Mining                                                   ACTIVITY AREAS
           employment has gone from 1500 to 2600
           in the same period. Total population in
           1970 was about 18,000; today it is 37,000;
           projections for the early 1980's go as
           high as 89,000.                                        Energy development generally re-
               This unprecedented growth has                 quires vast construction/extraction pro-
           caused a crisis. It has degraded the qual-        grams, but these programs last only a
           ity of life for county residents, reduced         limited number of years in a specific
           productivity and caused higher costs in           place. Employment booms and declines.
           industry, and caused a breakdown in               The employment boom is highly disrup7
           local government's ability to provide             tive, since it upsets local wage structures
           public services. There is insufficient            in unrelated occupations such as agricul-
           housing, and unplanned mobile home                ture. Agriculture is especially vulnerable
           neighborhoods are proliferating outside           in strip mining regions, where direct con-
           city limits to avoid wastewater control           flict exists between surfaces uses (agri-
           regulations. The number of doctors per            culture and ranching) and the extraction
           capita has fallen to one doctor per 3,700         of minerals below. Furthermore, local
           residents and rates of alcoholism,                workers have a difficult time finding new
           broken homes, and suicides are up.                employment in construction work since
           Schools are insufficient, and retail and          they seldom have the necessary skills;
           service facilities lag behind demand. In          many new jobs are taken by outside.
           coming years, the problems are expected           labor, often producing bitter social con-
           to get worse rather than better since the         flict and even raising unemployment
           industrial firms have made irrevocable            during construction.
           commitments to expanded production,                    When the boom is over, unemploy-
           and increased coal mining is likely to            ment becomes a major problem. After the
           occur as a further response to national           power plant is built or the local coal
           energy needs.                                     seams exhausted, many workers leave;
               The United States is intent upon              the original residents and some new
           increasing its energy self-sufficiency and        people remain, but the previous employ-
           it has become an explicit national policy         ment structure often cannot be revived to
           to encourage increased exploitation of            support them.
           native fuel supplies. We may expect
           more boom towns like Sweetwater.                  (above) Source: U.S. Environmental Protecfion Agency. 65
<pb n="67" />

                        The major companies which embark               a dose reading of the Corps' figures
                   on these projects are attracted to the local        revealed that two-thirds of these bene-
                   area by physical resources and to a cer-            fits were for new industry which would
                   tain extent are captive to the local town.          develop because of the flood protection.
                   In several communities which have ab-               Many of the valley residents wanted
                   sorbed major power plants, local proper-            neither the dam nor the industry.
                   ty taxes have been eliminated while rela-                Highways and sewers have been
                   tively luxurious community facilities               built since the dam, and urbanization
                   have been funded at company expense.                has followed. Without the flood control
                   In the long term this windfall may have             profitable development would not have
                   drawbacks. The town may act as a mag-               been possible, and the area might still
                   net for retired elderly people or for sec-          be farms.
                   ond home development. Thus, many                         The dam did not even solve all the
                   community residents will have low in-               flooding problems. The soils in parts of
                   comes or will contribute to the local               the area are relatively impervious and
                   economy only on a seasonal basis.                   drainage is slow; ponds form for a time
                        Communities have a difficult time              after the snow melts. In the past, some
                   controlling the impacts of mining and               farmers have built culverts or ditches to
                   energy-related infrastructure. These in-            drain their land. The Soil Conservation
                   dustries locate in rural areas, where the           Service wants to build $36 million worth
                   prospect of fast wealth is often irre-              of channels to solve the ponding prob-
                   sistible; the inevitable negative impacts           lem, which presently costs $325,000 in
                   are ignored. Even if the potential nega-            damages per year. Major new develop-
                   tive impacts are recognized, the com-               ment would be required to make this
                   munities often do not have the resources            investment economically reasonable.
                   to deal with them, because this requires                 This project may or may not get
                   huge public infrastructure investments              built. The area is taking initial steps
                   before the development occurs and be-               towards comprehensive planning and
                   fore there are any tax revenues from the            control of development, and these ef-
                   new construction. Some local groups,                forts should start with decisions about
                   however, have been able to exert an                 flood management infrastructure.
                   influence over large developments,                       Flood control dams, stream chan-
                   forcing the incoming firms to make pro-             nelizations, levees, and similar invest-
                   visions to abate the major economic and             ments can have a major impact on devel-
                   environmental impacts typical of the                opment by reducing the damage frorn
                   projects concerned.                                 floods in an area. In the Green River
                                                                       basin, flood control was the first infra-
                   Dams and Flood Control Facilities                   structure required for development, and
                                                                       further flood control investments will
                        Before 1955, the Green River Valley            lead to more urbanization.
                   near Seattle was mostly farmland. The                    Elimination of flood hazards typi-
                   river frequently flooded, leaving rich              cally has important effects on develop-
                   alluvial soils for farming but also creat-          ment. Dams allow development in flood
                   ing a small amount of flood damage. In              plains with less risk, especially when
                   1955 the Corps of Engineers built the               federal insurance and disaster relief pro-
                   Howard Hansen Dam to remove this                    grams compensate residents for losses
                   11 problem," and projected annual bene-             should a flood ever occur. Improved
           66      fits of about a million dollars. However,           drainage of wetlands lets them be de-
<pb n="68" />

            veloped without major problems in base-                   Further Sources
            ment flooding, lawn upkeep, or sewer
            infiltration.                                                  Many of the sources about land de-
                 Protected flood plains and drained                   velopment, such as those listed in Chap-
            wetlands are very attractive sites for de-                ter 1, relate here as well. The major
            velopment. Flood plain landis generally                   examples and experiences were drawn
            flat and requires little clearing. Drained                from several sources.
            marshland may require some fill and                            The Dallas/Fort Worth example was
            grading, but this is relatively inexpen-                  based on past work at USR&amp;E for the
            sive. In either case, the infrastructure                  project "Development of Airport Legis-
            creates ideal land for low cost develop-                  lative Innovations", done for the Federal
            ment and developers are attracted.                        Aviation Administration. Disney Worl&amp;
                 There are both economic and envi-                    was described based on articles in Archi-
            ronmental impacts from flood area devel-                  tectural Forum by Peter Blake and in the
            opment. Most of the benefits from dams                    Orlando Sentinel. The Green River and
            are in protection from flood damage.                      Boeing case studies came from unpub-
            However, should an uncontrollable flood                   lished research in the Green River area,
            ever occur, and ultimately it will, damage                and the Sweetwater material from the
            in developed flood plains will be very                    Denver.Research Institute study, A
            costly. Dams and channels also tend to fill               Growth Management Case Study: Sweet-
            up with silt, and expensive maintenance                   water County, Wyoming. . t @
            may be required. Sewers in areas with                          The annual reports of the Council on
            high water tables may receive a great deal                Environmental Quality (1971 to 1975) also
            of infiltration, lowering effective plant                 contain a great deal of useful information
            capacity._ Development of wetlands can                    on growth and land use land their reports
            greatly reduce the groundwater available                  on leisure home developments are useful
            or change its quality, which may damage                   in analyzing the potential impacts of
            community water supplies.                                 recreational developments. Clawson's
                 Control of the impacts of flood in-                  book on The Economics of Outdoor Recrea-
            vestments can be very simple. If the dam                  tion is a classic and probably the best first
            is not built, there will be no maintenance                source for ideas on predicting demand.
            costs, and though it will still be necessary              There are few classic works on energy
            to control development in the flood                       facility impacts, flood control and devel-
            plain, the demand for development will                    opment, or rural employment growth.
            be greatly @redl'uced. Flood plains and                   There are many sources, but little good
            wetlands are sensitive areas, and the                     synthesis has been done. The best first
            zoning of flood plains to allow only suit-                step is probably to start with a good bib-
            able types of development is a proven                     hography and a research library, and
            technique.                                                unearth the many sources available.
                 Since flood controls have extensive
            and essentially irreversible conse-
            quences, they should be undertaken with
            care. The assumptions, made in calculat-
            ing -the net benefits expected should be
          ..consistent with community desires and
            plans for growth.

                                                                                                                             67
<pb n="69" />

                   Appen- dix

                   General Data and Research Sources                           Council of Planning Librarians,
                                                                               Box ??9
                   Data Sources                                                Monticello, Illinois, 61856
                                                                         CPL Bibliographies are available on a
                        The National Environmental Policy                large number of topics related to Plan-
                   Act (N-EPA) requires environmental im-                ning, land use, and the environment.@
                   pact statements to be prepared for most               Write for a -list.
                   projects having federal involvement, and                 e. Superintendent of Documents,
                   many states have similar requirements                       Government    'Printing Office,
                   for large projects. The EIS usually con-                    Washington, DC 20402
                   tains extensive data on the@ investment'              The'source for non-technical government
                   itself, and projections of population,@               -publications and,'@rna`ny technical. ones.
                   employment, and land use. It may be a                 Bra ,nch -go-veriiinciAt bookstores are in
                   major source of inforination and maps.                twenty-five majiorcities, and there is a
                        Regional planning agencies are                   monthly catalog available.
                   another good source for mapsl projec-                       National Technical Information
                   tions, and information about local and..                    Service, Springfield, Virginia, 22161
                   regional growth.                                      NTIS is the major source for technical
                        The Chamber of Commerce may                      publications developed by or for the
                   have infonnation on commercial and                    govemment and publishes comprehen-
                   industrial construction trends.                       sive monthly and annual indices contain-
                        State agencies such as the State Geo-            ing abstracts and organized by subject,
                   logic Surveys will know about soil types,             author, issuing agency, etc. Most useful
                   flooding, marshes, and sensitive areas                reports are in a publications (PB) series
                   where major environmental impacts are                 (with order numbers like PB-235-257),
                   likely. Local conservation commissions                and response is quicker if you order by
                   or citizen groups may also have these                 number rather than by title. Response is
                   data, and the U.S. Geologic Survey and                also quicker if payment is enclosed - mi-
                   Soil Conservation Service may be                      crofiche copies are all $2.25 (printed copy
                   helpful.                                              prices depend on the number of pages).
                        Another resource often left un-                  Write them for further information.
                   tapped is the academic community. Col-                   * The Transportation Research Board
                   lege faculties may know what research                 publishes reports about highways, air-
                   has been done and may be able to sug-                 ports, and mass transit. Write to them at
                   gest simple ways to answer important                  2001 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Wash-
                   questions. There may also be students                 ington, D.C., 20418.
                   who would like to work on analyses for                   * The Environmental Protection
                   course credits.                                       Agency has a central library in Washing-
                                                                         ton and regional libraries in Boston, New
                   Research Sources - Reports                            York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago,
                                                                         Dallas, Kansas City, Denver, San Fran-
                        There is a wealth of published mate-             cisco and Seattle. They have a wealth of
                   rial on almost any land use question.                 material, and the libraries can borrow
                   Some of these were described in each                  from each other as needed.
                   chapter; others are likely to be suggested               e The Council on Environmental
                   by people talked to or from bibliogra-                Quality, which funded this work, has
                   phies in the references. Here are a few               also supported a number of other studies
           68      useful addresses and pointers.                        on land use. CEQ publishes an annual
<pb n="70" />

          report, with a section concerned with
          land use management and public invest-
          ment. They are located at 722 Jackson
          Place, N.W., Washington, DC 20006.
            * If you need the address or source for
          any government agency or publication,
          try your Congressman.

                                                                                                    69
<pb n="71" />

                   Bibliography

                        Blake, Peter, 'Walt Disney World,"             Denver, 1974.
                   Architectural Forum, Vol. 136, No. 6, June               Heenan, G.W. "The Economic Effect
                   1972: pp. 24-41.                                    of Rapid Transit on Real Estate Develop-
                        Bone, J.H., Economic Impact of Massa-          ment,". Appraisal Journal, Vol. 36, No. 4,
                   chusetts Route 128, Department of Civil             April 1968, pp. 212 224.
                   Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of                  Kalauskas, C. The Impact of Rail Rapid
                   Technology, Cambridge, Mass, 1958.                  Transit Stations on Multi-Family Housing,
                        Boyce, D.E., B. Allen, R.R. Mudge,             Graduate School of Design, Harvard
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                        Clawson, M. Suburban Land Conver-                   Libicki, M.C. "Land Use Impacts of
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                        Council on Environmental Quality,              Washington, 1975.
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                   1973, 1974, 1975), Annual Reports of the            Politics of Transportation in Boston and the
                   Council on Environmental Quality.                   U.S. City, Boston: Little Brown and Com-
                   Washington: U.S. Government Printing                pany, 1971.
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                        Curtis, V. (ed.), Land Use and the             munities, The Pennsylvania State Uni-
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                   Washington: NTIS. 1973 (PB-225 521).                     McHarg, 1. Design With Nature,
                        Environmental Impact Center, Inc.              Garden City, N.J.: Doubleday, 1971.
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                   ways on Development: A Bibliography, EPA            cil, South Shore Rail Rapid Transit exten-
                   Report #600/5-75-002, January 1975.                 sion: Preliminary Impact Study, Boston,
                        Gannon, C.A. and M.J. Dear. The                1973.
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                   ,the Philadelphia-Lindenwold Speed Line.            bridge: Harvard University Press, 1965.
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                        Gilmore, J.S. and M.K. Duff, A                 velopment, The Urban Institute, Wash-
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<pb n="72" />

           Sewerage Systems, Trenton, 1975.                    pared for the Federal Aviation Adminis-
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           Municipal Government Study Commis-                  tion, Washington, March 1975. Report
           sion, Housing and Suburbs: Fiscal and               No. FAA-ASP-74-1.
           Social Impacts of Multifamily Development,               Urban Systems Research &amp; En-
           Trenton, 1974.                                      gineering, Inc., Interceptor Sewers and
                Peterson, S.G. "Walking Distance to            Suburban Sprawl, Washington: NTIS,
           Bus Stops in Washington, D.C. Resi-                 1974. (PB-236 477 and PB-236 871).
           dential Areas," Traffic Engineering,                    Warner, S.B., Jr. Streetcar Suburbs:
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                Reilly, W.K. (ed.) The Use of Land: A
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           New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1973.
                Schaenman, P. and T. Muller, Mea-
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                Scott, R.W. (ed.) Management and
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                Sheldon, N.W. andR. Brandwein,
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                Spengler, E.T. Land Value in New
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                Stansbury, J. "Suburban Growth, A
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                                                                                  U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1976 0-599-558
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