[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
SOCIO-ECONOM-IC ASSESSMENT OF THE REUSE ALTERNATIVES OF QUONSET POINT/ DAVISVILLE fill 0 Coastal Zone I Information enter Prepared,for: RHODE ISLAND DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUGUST, 1977 Gladstone Associates... ECONOMIC CONSULTANTS Coastal Zone Information Center SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE REUSE ALTERNATIVES OF QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLY cv_ 'Prepared for R.I DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT August, 1977 Of CSC Llbrjry The preparation of this document was financed in part by a planning grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under the provisions of the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (Public Law 92-583) through the integrated Grant Administration Program. The con- tents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the sponsoring agencies. The publication is based upon publicly supported research and may not be copyrighted. It may be reprinted in part or in full with the customary crediting of the source. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHAPTER I: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND'RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . Summary of Development Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Socio-Economic Assessment Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Direct Impacts . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Impact of Site Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Estimates of On-Site Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Skill or Occupational Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 8 On-Site Payroll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Indirect Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Multiplier Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Fiscal .4 Issues in North Kingstown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 North Kingstown Comprehensive Planning . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Site Development Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 13 CHAPTER II: BACKGROUND ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS . . . . . . . 16 Employment . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Population, Households, and Personal Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 CHAPTER III: OVERVIEW INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Industrial Construction Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Quonset Point/Davisville Absorption Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Industry Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 CHAPTER IV: PETROLEUM SUPPORT INDUSTR IAL POTENTIAL . . . . . ... . . . . 30 Overview of Marketability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Phasing and Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) Page CHAPTER V: COMPLEMENTARY COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES . . . . . . 35 Retail Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Office Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Hotel Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Marina Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 CHAPTER VI: EXAMINATION OF DIRECT IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Site Development Construction Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 On-Site Employment Created . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Expected Occupational/Skill Levels . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Estimated Payroll from New Uses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o . . . . 46 CHAPTER VII: ASSESSMENT OF INDIRECT IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Estimated Multipl ier Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Induced Growth and Attendant Impacts . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 51 Quonset Point/Davisville Redevelopment and Induced Growth . . . . . . 53 Analysis of Induced Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Growth Management Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Town Costs and Benefits from Redevelopment . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 TECHNICAL APPENDIX A: BACKGROUND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS TECHNICAL APPENDIX B: BACKGROUND OIL SUPPORT INDUSTRY DATA TECHNICAL APPENDIX C: DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS TECHNICAL APPENDIX D: REVIEW OF MAJOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS INTRODUCTION This report 'presents a socio-economic assessment of alternative reuse scenarios for the Quonset Point/Davisville facility. The alternatives pre- sented were arrived at jointly with the planning task force. As such, they reflect a consensus on land use planning, environmental and economic choices for the site. Conversely, they are not the result of a wholly new marketability analysis for the site. The study has been divided into three principal technical tasks: (1) a review of previous market and feasibility studies; (2) a synthesization of development recommendations and alternatives; (3) an evaluation of the socio- economic impact arising from the alternative development schemes. This socio-economic assessment, therefore extends directly from previous economic analyses for reusing the former Navy base and is intended as one of several "informational" elements to assist the state of Rhode Island in formu- lating optimum policies and strateg ies for redevelopment of the site. This volume is one of three reports designed to assist in the comprehensive master planning of Quonset Point/Davisville. Companion documents include Keyes Associates inventory of existing infrastructure and other facilities together with recommendations and cost estimates for prescribed site develop- ment. This information is summarized in Keyes Associates' report entitled Quonset Point Technical Park Facilities Studies, dated March, 1977. A second document, authored. by the Coastal Resources Center of the University of Rhode Island, systematically examines existing environmental conditions (e.g., water quality, soils, vegetation, aquatic life, etc.) and the estimated impacts of redevelopment. Environmental findings are detailed in a report entitled The Redevelopment of Quonset/Davisville, An Environmental Assessment, dated September, 1977. i In addition to coordinating with these two consultant groups, Gladstone Associates has been in close contact with representatives of state and local agencies and with concerned citizens. Included here has been the Quonset Point Master Development Plan Task Force, consisting of representatives from the Department of Economic Development, Rhode Island Port Authority, Statewide Planning Program, Governor's Office, Department of Transportation, Department of Health, the Rhode Island Historical Commission, and the towns of,North Kingstown and South Kingstown. Purpose of the Report While not intended as a substitute for a formal environmental impact statement (EIS) this socio-economic element is patterned after the EIS pro- cess and can serve as an economic planning document. In that respect, the work has been designed to provide decision makers with quantified estimates of impacts associated with prospective redevelopment policies and strategies for Quonset Point. While pinpoint population and employment forecasts resulting from a given redevelopment program have not been detailed, reasonable possibilities are defined and attendant impacts measured. These, in turn, provide a framework within which policy decisions can be made. Thus,.indicated conclusions and recommendations rely primarily on "comparative orders of magnitude" rather than highly refined socio-economic projections. Working Assumpti Two principal working assumptions have been used throughout the study process. First, for purposes of this analysis, certain parcels -- primarily the housing areas south of Roger Williams Way, with the exception of Kiefer Park -- within the Quonset Point/Davisville complex were excluded from ii consideration. The reason for this was that the state and town of North Kingstown had previously agreed that policies for and disposition of these areas would be the responsibility of the town. In addition, Navy retained parcels -- such as the Administrative Triangle, portions of West Davisville, etc. -- have not been considered for intensive reuse. The rationale here is simply that lease terms woul'd likely-be extremely restrictive -- including a 30-day cancellation clause -- effectively precluding major private investment. Only the Flightpath and Dogpatch areas near the Davisville piers are excep- tions in this respect. Under the oil scenarios dev0oped,.these parcels are necessary for water frontage and storage areas to be used in conjunction with existing and proposed pier space. Other working assumptions with respect to land uses considered are based on the state's primary objective of.broadening the economic base and maximizing potential employment at this location. Accordingly, development potentials for industrial, retail, hotel, marina and offices uses were delineated. On the other hand, housing uses were not considered because these would not be directly responsive to this objective and because land use conflicts would adversely effect residential marketability. Report Organization The report which follows consists of essentially three discrete parts. Chapter One presents a summary of the socio-economic assessment and contains a series of recommendations for subsequent actions. In Chapters Two through Five, an overview is presented of market supports underlying the development alternatives, beginning with a brief examination of recent demographic and employment trends followed by detailed descriptions of iii oil and non-oil re lated industrial development opportunities as well as office, retail, hotel and marina potentials. Chapters Six and Seven delineate direct and indirect impacts respectively, including: (1) construction jobs and payroll emanating from site development; (2) likely absorption forecasts for the site with related job buildup, occupa- tional breakdown, and payroll; (3) broad estimates of multiplier effects, and (4) growth management issues for North Kingstown. Finally, supporting statistical information is presented in four technical appendices. These data are fundamental to the conclusions and recommendations presented in the main body of the report, while at the same time serve as a resource document to which changing methodological assumptions can be applied as desired and against which future economic conditions can be measured. iv CHAPTER I SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS As stated in the introduction, this socio-economic assessment is part of a larger task force planning effort -- including representatives from many govern- ment agencies -- which formulated the three al.ternative development scenarios. An early step in this process was a broad market evaluation for the respec- tive,land uses set forth in these scenarios. In turn, the socio-economic implications of prospective redevelopment were assessed for the scale and timing of various activities projected for Quonset Point/Davisville. Additionally, potential financial problems confronting the Port Authority and "growth management" fiscal issues at'the tctwn-level have been noted. Summary conclusions set forth in this chapter reflect more detailed analyses presented in Chapters II through VII and broad statistical data found in the technical appendices. Summary of Development Scenarios Three development'scenarios were established on the basis of the likely level of offshore oil and gas "find," reflecting a range of possible demand for onshore petroleum support facilities. The varying intensity of oil-related uses is reflected primarily in alter- natives for the Davisville*Pier, Dogpatch and Flightpath areas, and to a lesser extent in the Warehousing and Personnel Support areas. At the same time for each of the scenarios, a majority of the site is reserved for general manufacturing and technical industries, retail, hotel, marina, and office uses. A summary of the redevelopment program alternatives is presented in Table I-1 below, and a map delineating the subareas referenced is shown on the'following page. As shown, the portion of the Q uonset Point/Davisville complex covered by this analysis ranges from approximately 731 acres (in Scenario III) to 816 acres (in Scenarios I and II). The approximately 85 acre difference between these is accounted by land adjacent to the Davisville Piers -- presently retained by the Navy -- which would provide necessary water frontage in accom- modating oil-related users in either a medium or high find. TABLE 1-1 SUMARY OF NEW USES ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE REUSE Scenario I Scenario It Scenario III Subarea Land Use Kc-res Land Use Acres _----[a-n-cT -Use Acre@ Davisville Piers Mariwa 20 Marina 20 Marina 20 Platform Fabrication 85 Platform Fabrication 85 Water-Oriented Industry 85 Dobpatch/Flightpathi/ Service Bases!/ 265 Service Bases 265 Open Storage ISO Warehousing Area Service Bases 70 Service Bases 70 Warehousing 30 Technical Park 40 Golf Course A 'a Motel 9 Motel 9 Motel 9 7, Office Park 66 Office Park 66 Office Park 66 Personnel Support Area Service Bases 40 General Industrial 40 General Industrial 40 Revenue Producing Area Electric Boat Expansion 30 Electric Boat Expansion 30 Electric Boat Expansion 30 Service Bases 24 Technical Park 24 Technical Park 24 Kiefer Park Technical Park 98 Technical Park 98 Technical Park 98 Hill Creek Shopping Center 29 Shopping Center 29 Shopping Center 29 W Technical Park 20 Technical Park 20 Technical Park 20 West Davisville General Industrial 60 General Industrial 60 General Industrial 60 Total!/ 816 816 816 Scenarios I and 11 include 85 acres of Navy Retained Land adjacent to Dogpatch which are deemed necessary by petroleum support companies for oil support activities of Scenarios I and 11, but which are not needed in Scenario III where there are no oil support activities. ?J Note: the term "service bases' refers to onshore petroleum support activities such as storage "wids" and other supplies, crewbDats, etc. Source: Gladstone Associates As illustrated above, the development scenarios contain many "constants." Most of the acreage -- between 605 and 690 acres -- is designated for labor intense, manufacturing industries with smaller sites reserved for various commercial uses. -2- . ..................... ------------------- DEVELOPMENT PARCELS QUONSET POINT/ DAVISVILLE ..................... B avol Pond ................. . .. w Fry Pond Ise E.0 Navy Permanent Mission Retained Land Navy Future Mobilization Retained Land Am-Davisville Piers H CB:Dogpatch and Flightpath M F 14C:West Davisville :DMill Creek E Warehousing Area N :Fm.Kiefer Park :G :Personnel Support Area -14 5 :H: Revenue Producing Area :Golf Course Area Primary differences occur in the Davisville Pier area, varying from plat- form fabrication in petroleum support industries (in Scenarios I and II) to a single use, water oriented industry (in Scenario III). Another difference is the previously mentioned addition of 85 acres of Navy retained land adjacent to the Davisville Piers. Finally, Dogpatch and Flightpath areas could take on either an oil-related character or could be developed to provide storage for whatever water-oriented use evolves on the Davisville Pier site. Similarly, portions of the Personnel Support area and Warehouse areas may be utilized by petroleum support industries under a high find and reserved for other industrial uses under a "no" or medium find. The remaining parcels --r includi ng West Davisville, Mill Creek parcels, Golf Course, Revenue Producing, Keifer Park Housing, etc. -- are designated for corresponding uses in each of the three scenarios. Socio-economic impacts described in the section immediately below were assessed in light of these respective land use allocations. Socio-Economic Assessment Findings Both direct and indirect impacts that can be attributed to redevelopment of the Quonset Point/Davisville facility have been evaluated including: esti- mates of construction jobs and payroll resulting from site development, (i.e., construction of infrastructure, site preparation, etc.); creation of on-site jobs through the location of new industrial facilities; and indirect, non- manufacturing jobs resulting from economic base multiplier effects. Both direct and indirect impacts have been measured in terms of employment, likely skill or occupational levels, and personal income. In addition, an evaluation of the fiscal/growth management issues which would result in North Kingstown is presented. -4- Direct Impacts Impact of Site Development Based on construction budget estimates for site development -- provided initially in the Keyes Associates' facilities plan and revised by the Depart- ment of Economic Development -- between 2,500 and 5,300 person months of construction employment is forecast for Scenarios III and Scenario I respec- tively. This reflects the more modest capital improvements required under the no oil scenario compared to the high find in which 8,000 linear feet of additional pier space would be developed. Patently, each of the scenarios provides for a substantial amount of construction employment, thereby easing recent high unemployment pressures in that industry. It should be noted, however, that these estimates noted here reflect only state-sponsored site development efforts in prepartion for new industrial and commercial users. Additional construction required to build new plants, stores, warehouses, and other private facilities is not accounted. Hence, the aforementioned construction employment estimates are conservative. Similarly, with respect to direct construction wages, estimates range from alow of $3.5-$4.5 million (Scenario III) to $6.7-$8.6 million'(Scenario II) and up to a high of $7.3-$9.4 million (Scenario 1). Again, differences among these reflect varying capital improvement costs for bulkheading and finger pier space provided in Scenarios I and II respectively but not in Scenario III. As before, private capital investments are not included in these projections. Estimates of On-Site Employment Estimates of future on-site jobs have been made taking account of the likely absorption of the Quons et Point/Davisville property and the particular industry -5- mix contained in each of the scenarios. Displayed in graphical form for the 25 year forecast period below, these forecasts reflect respective oil-related phasing expectations. Illustratively for the no oil alternative, phased absorption is shown in "steps" or employment gains for discrete five year periods. This reflects judgements as to the timing of certai n development as well as limitations in attempting annual forecasts over a long term. ILLUSTRATIVE EMPLOYMENT ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE REUSE 201000- 10AW- DEVIELOPMENT SCENARIOS Scenario I - High Find Oil Scenario if - Mixed Use Scenario III -No Oil 5.000- 15 43 24 16 17 118 119 20 41 1 2 3 4 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 42 Source: Gladstone Associates Employment in Scenarios I and II has been forecast using similar assump- tions but adding more specific time phasing for petroleum support industries - rI/ as developed by the New England River Basins Commission. -6- Each of the three scenarios have different job buildup characteristics. Specifically, by year 10, the two oil scenarios out-pace the non-oil alter- native, whereas over the long term -- assuming reuse of previously oil-related parcels in the final phase -- the three scenarios result in approximately the same number of on-site Jobs. Clearly, a trade-off for these alternatives is established relating to the timing of job.buildup over the short and long tem. The trade-off is summarized in Table 1-2 below. We consider the short and long term to be years 10 and 25, respectively. TABLE 1-2 NEW ON-SITE JOBS GENERATED QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE REUSE YEARS 10 AND 25 New Jobs in Alternative Scenarios Year 10 6.400 6,300 4,800 Year 25 11,000 11,800 11,650 Note: Scenario I is for High Find Oil Related Land Use. Scenario II is for Mixed Land Use with Medium Find Oil Support, and Scenario III is for Industrial, Commercial and Recreational Land Use. 4, Source: Gladstone Associates We find that in the short tem (10 year outlook), Scenarios I and II result in a significantly higher number of new jobs than Scenario III. Petroleum -7- supportindustries at Quonset Point/Davisville would result in between 6,300 and 6,400 new on-site jobs by year 10, compared to only 4,800 in the "no oil" alternative. Consistent with state objectives, this represents an important factor in evaluating the risks attendant in each of the alternatives. The prospect for achieving job levels indicated appears more firm in Scenarios I and II. Further, the indicated employment differentials appear to support continuation 'of the DED marketing policies aimed at petroleum support industries since greater opportunities are indicated for short term beneficial impacts compared to relatively "equal" long-term benefits. This last point is illustrated by the 25 year employment forecast for 11,000 to 11,800 new on-site jobs under each alternative. Of particular import here is that the land in the Davisville Pier, Dogpatch, and Flightpath areas, used early in the development process would not be committed permanently. Rather, these would serve temporary uses allowing these sites to be redeveloped at a later date. Moreover, this "second round" prospect appears promising, given associated land and waterfront resources characterizing these parcels. This serves as a further reinforcement for scenarios I and II from an economic perspective, assuming that appropriate environmental safeguards -- discussed in the Coastal Resources Center report -- are implemented. Skill or Occupational Level Nearly as important as the quantity of new jobs is the type of employment generated, as reflected for each of the scenarios (in the long and short term) by occupational and skill levels. In all alternatives, a large proportion of the employment anticipated likely will be for skilled personnel including professional and administrative, craftsmen, foremen, and other highly trained workers. -8- This outlook reflects two primary factors: (1) the industry targeting process undertaken by Harbridge House, Inc. which emphasizes labor intensive, growth industries requiring skilled labor -- to be incorporated in the technical park and general manufacturing sectors of each scenario; and (2) the types of oil-related uses which would be encouraged at Quonset Point/ Davisville -- particularly platform fabrication, requiring large numbers of skilled welders. On balance, these scenarios provide for an appreciable proportion of high paying jobs along with some corollary requirements for unskilled workers such as laborers and service workers. On-Site Payroll Taking account of the above estimates of jobs and occupations, annual payrolls have been estimated for all scenarios in both the long and short term. Reflecting the more rapid build-up of jobs in Scenarios-1 and II, new payroll -- of more than $90 million -- surpasses that of Scenario III by a considerable amount. This again illustrates the desirability of attracting a greater employ- ment base in the short tem. TABLE 1-3 NEW ON-SITE PAYROLL QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE REUSE YEARS 10 AND 25 New Payroll in Alternative Scenarios (In Millionsl Year 10 $ 95.6 $ 93.6 $ 60.5 Year 25 $132.7 $140.6 $137.5 Source: Gladstone Associates As with the estimates of new jobs, payroll in the long-term tends to balance out among the three scenarios. Specifically, we estimate that annual wages and salaries between $133 and $140 million wi*11 be generated on-site reflecting once again the reuse assumptions for previously oil-related parcels as well as the specific industry mix represented in each scenario. Indirect Impacts Multiplier Effects, Using the above on-site employment growth, potential secondary impacts with respect to job spin-offs have been estimated, taking account of various non-manufacturing jobs generated by the expanded Quonset Point/Davisville economic base. The inclusion of these multiplier effects rounds out the site's potential employment benefits. Estimates of secondary job "spin-offs" it must be emphasized, can only be generalized as to comparative "orders of magnitude" for the respective scenarios in the long and short term. I'll this connection, specific attention was given different multiplier potentials for general manufacturing and oil- related industries. As shown in Table 1-4, "spin-offs"'@Or'the three scenarios show a similar pattern to on-site employment buildup. The two scenarios including petroleum support industries have a faster buildup of jobs with a corresponding more rapid generation of spin-off employment, accounting for approximately 4,000 off-site jobs in the short tem. By comparison, only 2,900.of this type are forecast for under Scenario III. TABLE 1-4 ESTIMATED JOB SPIN-OFF QUONSET POINTIDAVISVILLE REUSE YEARS 10 AND 25 Job Spin-off from Alternative Scenarios Year 10 4,000 4,000 2,900 Year 25 6,400 6,900 61800 4, -4 , .4, Source: Gladstone Associates _10- Over the long-term, assuming redevelopment of previously oil-related parcels, the "spin-off" for all three scenarios would be comparable, ranging from 6,400 to 6,900 off-site jobs. Similarly, personal income for this secondary employment would account for approximately $75-$80 million per year by year 25, clearly a substantial benefit, although more diffused among effected communities depending on the residential locational patterns of Quonset-related population. Fiscal Issues in North Kingstown Comparing baseline population forecasts with possible induced population growth in the town of North Kingstown highlights several critical growth manage- ment issues. In addition to signficiant population growth attributable to Quonset development -- on the order of 7,000 to 20,000 people -- North Kingstown's population would be expected to more than double under normal circumstances over the next 25 years. The town's increasing role as a bedroom community for Warwick, Cranston and Providence employment locations -- due to excellent accessibility and attractive environment -- results in these suburbanization pressures. Impacts attributable to Quonset Point/Davisville redevelopment, of course, Will be influenced by public policy directions. As such, the actual realization of these population forecasts is a function of future government actions. Municipal services, schools, utilities, police and fire protection, will have to be substantially expanded in any event, even if Quonset employment opportunities do not materialize as envisioned. The fiscal burden of providing these services is likely to be substantial. Sound planning practice dictates that a number of forward-looking major policy measures and decisions be reviewed and that contingency plans be developed. Inclu ded in these would be all matters relating to growth management such as zoning, capital improvements for water, sewer, roads, schools and the like. Under these conditions (and recognizing the wide range of policy options available) the fiscal implications of Quonset's potential impact cannot be specifically assessed within the scope of this study. Rather, major issues are identified and addressed in line with the recommendations discussed immediately below. Recommendations Recommended actions for consideration at respective levels of government together with economic-related issues are presented in the paragraphs below. North Kingstown Comprehensive Planning. As a result of the severe growth management issues described above, a thorough updating of the town's comprehensive plan is recommended. As is readily apparent, the present plan, predicated on the continued major Navy presence and not fully accounting for the indicated,current and future suburban- ization pressures, has been overtaken by recent events. As mentioned previously, salient issues relating to population growth must be addressed as illustrated by: Possibilities for revising the zoning ordinance to-allow for higher density development in certain sections of the town (e.g.,* the Post Road corridor for which expanded sewer service will likely be available in the foreseeable future) while preserving a less intense character in the balance of the town. 4i-c7@ A determiniation of how substantially increased population levels would be serviced -- in terms of infrastructure and associated municipal services -- and the implied costs @iv incurred. I& F,%", Prospects for additional sewer system extensions to allow folIF smaller lot development, thereby providing housing over a broader price range than is currently possible. -12- Detailed fiscal trade-off analysis to identify uses which will likely carry a fair share of financial burdens (e.g., large lot subdivisions with corresponding large-houses and families do not typically cover the cost of municipal services incurred for items such as schools, road main- tenance, etc.). Consideration of some of these issues, now underway according to our understanding should give careful attention to the definition of alternatives to be studied including several approaches for accommodating substantial popu- lation levels (i.e., up to 50,000 to 60,000 people by the year 2000). In addition, the accelerated rate of population growth throughout the West Bay -- including South Kingstown, Narragansett, Jamestown, and Exeter suggests the need for systematic examination to assure orderly growth within the fiscal resources of these affected communities as well. Site Development Recommendations The redevelopment of Quonset Point/Davisville is a complex task which will require strong management and planning by the state's Department of Economic Development and Port Authority. Issues to be addressed include site access, phasing, financing alternatives, and detailed financial planning. Each of these are discussed immediately below. Site access is an important consideration for marketing the property to potential industrial users. Specifically, the facilities plan to date has described a "transportation corridor" from the Navy base entrance on Route I to Rhode Island Route 4. Direct highway access to this latter major highway, of importance from a marketing standpoint, will also raise a number of environ- mental issues -- e.g., wetlands, wildlife habitat, and impact on existing residential area. Accordi'ngly, it is recommended that required EIS planning to fully explore alternative solutions be carried out as expeditiously as possible, including various transportation modes -- including freight service, shuttle buses, commuter buses.. -13- Another important development issue is the phasing of needed capital improvements. As detailed in the Keyes Associates' report, full development of the Quonset Point/Davisville facility will require a substantial capital investment. Major sewer and water systems, roads, additional pier space and similar supporting infrastructure should be provided in the most cost effective manner possible. From a marketability standpoint, however, optimal phasing appears difficult since a number of the more attractive sites -- notably the Davisville Pier and West Davisville -- are not now fully served by necessary utilities. On balance, it is desirable to stage these in such a way that improvements are made jus t prior to the end use of a particular site. Closely related to this phasing question is financial planning. Several issues should be considered here including, lease rates, financing plans, phasing, operating costs, sources of funding, initial purchase price, etc. Even while information with respect to most of these variables is unknown or subject to negotiation, the state should begin to formulate alternative strategies for managing and financing this project. Accordingly, to assist this effort, a discounted cash flow model would be helpful in: (1) establish- ing the state's financial position in the project initially, and (2) identifying needed assumptions and policy options for testing once major considerations such as purchase price and development costs are firmed up. Illustrative of the options which might be explored are: � Financing: EPA grant and loan programs, coastal zone energy impact program, EDA loans and grants, bank loans, revenue bonds, etc. � Phasing and absorption alternatives. . Lease rate structures or land prices. -14- Stated another way, this analysis would examine state benefits, seeking to balance front end investment, financing charges, etc., against the project's anticipated long term revenue stream.. These summary findings and recommendations are based on broad market exami- nations (Chapters II through V) and detailed impact analyses (Chapters VI and VII). Additionally, a substantial data base developed during the course of the study is presented in the Technical Appendices. -15- CHAPTER II BACKGROUND ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS Re-use of Quonset Point/Davisville represents an important element in Rhode Island's overall economic development. Preceding detailed analysis of prospective benefits, this chapter ex-, amines background economic and demographic indicators with emphasis on past employment and unemployment trends. (More extensive discussions of findings and supporting data is provided in Technical Appendix A.) Employment With the Navy departure and onset of the 1974-75 recession, Rhode Island's grave employment problems highlighted the need for expanding the state's eco- nomic base to provide sufficient job opportunities for its residents Even preceding these recent events, Rhode Island's economy for 1960-1973 expanded moderately at best as noted on the following chart. As shown, the state's employment base lagged behind that of New England, growing from slightly less than 300,000 jobs in 1960 to approximately 360,000 jobs in 1973. Two factors are important to recognize in this respect: (1) historically, New England and particularly Rhode Island have continued to grow at a modest rate compared to the rest of the nation; and (2) since 1973, recent economic stagnancy has simply magnified problems associated with moderate growth reflected both in unemployment and underemployment. This latter factor, no NO 0@@ A@@ @, @A directly quantified in this study is of special concern, carrying as it d,,e `g,,j 4k-" additional adverse social and economic effects. -16- 4,800.000 4,200,000- ew England 3,600,000 196o 1965 1@70 400,000- 356,000, 300,000- Rhode Island 250,000 5 . -"-r 9 1960 1965 1970 RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND total employment 1960-1973 Source: EinpljNj-nent ard @ArrLj@nos, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Padstone Associates. More evident is the problem of unemployment (shown in Table 11-2) which since 1970 has increased sharply from 5.6 to 8 percent. Moreover, the rate was very high at 13.9 percent and 9.3 percent during 1975 and 1976 when the full effects of the recent recession were felt. -17 TABLE 11-2 SUMMARY OF UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1970-1977 Unemployment Year Labor Force Number Rate 1970 394,700 22,000 5.6% 1971 mg, i Do' 28,400 7.1% 1972 412,600 27,800 6.7% 1973 422,200 26,800 6.3% 1974 427,400 31,300 7.3% 1975 426,100 59,400 13.9% 1976Y 425,700 39,800 9.3% 19771/ 430.400 34,500 8.0% I/ Data is for March. Source: Annual Planning Report, May$ 1976, and Employment A-5fl-etin monthly, R I. Dept. of Employment Security. Occupational characteristics of the unemployed show that sizeable numbers of people in all job categories have been affected. Nearly 10 percent'of this group, for example, include professional, technical or managerial personnel; 15 percent clerical and sales workers, and more than 30 percent trade wor-kers of various types (Table 11-:3)., The unemployment and underemployment problems referenced here are in dicative of numerous social and economic difficulties effecting various stra t of Rhode Island population. While successful re-use of Quonset Point/Davis-,4@@--el'-,,4 ville will not alleviate all of these problems, considerable beneficial i act, Rpq can be expected in light of the indicated potential (noted below in this r rt) for attracting more than 11,000 new jobs and generating secondary gains for perhaps an additional 6,000 employees. TABLE 11-3 OCCUPATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INSURED UNEMPLOYED RHODE ISLAND OCTOBER. 1976 - FEBRUARY, 19771/ Five Month Averaqe Number Percent Professional, Technical, and Managerial 11958 9.9% Clerical and Sales 2,923 14.8% Service 1,327 6.7% Fishery, Forestry, and Related Occupations 356 1.8% Processing 656 3.3% Machine Trades 1,546 7.8% Bench Work 1,984 10.0% Structural Work 3,285 16.6% Miscellaneous 1,855 9.4% Information Not Available 3,852 19.5% Total?J L9.744 100.0% Data obtained from selected mid-month weeks. Column sums may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Rhode Island Department of Employment Security; Gladstone Associates. Population, Households, and Personal Income Demographic factors, like those for employment, reflect Rhode Island's moderate economic growth rate. More Significant to this study, however, are changes for West Bay and Kent County subareas'-- outlined on the map following -- which have grown more rapidly than the balance of the state. (Indeed, a substantial amount of intra- migration is apparent with growth rates for population, households and income increasing much more rapidly here than for the state as-a-whole.) This illustrates the continued suburbanization of employment and housing on the western side of Narragansett Bay and underscores a number of favorable -19- RHODE ISLAND Subareas PROVIDENCE CO. BURRILLVILLE CUMBERLAND NORTH ITHFIELD SMITHFIELD G L 0 C E S T E R *2--munr Pa t u, k et pROVI ENCE I I ovidence JOHNSTON F 0 S T E R IS C I T U A T Cranston '0 KEN] 0). Warwick C 0 V E N T R Y WEST GREENWICH 0 JI I TIVERTOIP@ PoRr sm ouTm WASHINCTON CO. E X C T E R A..r JAMESTOWN -m LITTLE COMPTON RICHMON OPKINTON K, 6 4f CILETO MI WN N-p-j f1, 1. 7 OUTH 0 (D KINGSTOWN 0 CHARLESTOWN B-d.-d @ESTFRL.Y 1. West Bay 2. Kent County &Urban Center 4. North/ Northwest Area S.Bristol County 6.East Bay 7. Southwest Area R IS Central Portion SCALE NEW SMOREHAM 0 5 1 MILES WASHINGTON (.0. -20-- marketing factors for the Quonset property, including expanded labor force availability, proximity to other industries and services, growing acceptability of further-out suburban locations, and related considerations. It is against this background that the marketability issues and socio- economic assessment, detailed in the chapters which follow, have been evaluated. 1z Ilk -21- CHAPTER III OVERVIEW INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK Past Rhode Island markets and likely future potentials are related to industrial development opportunities at Quonset Point/Davisville in this chapter. Not intended as a new comprehensive marketability analysis -- in line with prior DED agreement, this examination extends work previously carried out for the Department of Economic Development, most notably Industrial and Commer- cial Marketability of Surplus Properties in Rhode Island prepared by Harbridge House, Inc. in April, 1976. As such, the objective here has been to arrive at a likely absorption and industry mix for Quonset Point/Davisville which in turn, would serve as the basis for measuring socio-economic impacts of the respective redevelopment scenarios. Since, as noted in Chapter I, land available for redevelopment at Quonset Point would be designated primarily for industrial uses, this overview of indus- trial markets is central to the socio-economic assessment. Industrial Construction Trends At the outset, Rhode Island construction trends for the past ten years have been'eka'mined An detail at a suba'rea'level (Se@6 'Table "III-1 on the-followi.ng p#g'e and the map which follows). New industrial, development totaled nearly 12.9 million square feet of floor space between 1966 and 1975. Given business "cycle" fluctuations, these trends span substantial development during the boom of the late' 1960's compared to the more sluggish -- and even recessionary patterns -- of the early 1970's. -22 TABLE III-1 S"ARY OF INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION RHODE ISLAND 1Y _SUBAREA 1966-1975 New Industrial Floor Space (S.F.) Subarea- 1-966-1970 1971-T-975 TOUT- West Bay 99,900 124,200 224,100 -Kent County 1,651,400 1,772,500 3,423.900 Urban Center 3,109,200 1,945,900 5,055,100 North-Northwest 1,041.000 1,732,600 2,773,600 Bristol County 263,300 151.50*0 414,800 East Bay 654,800 119,400 774,200 Southwest 138,900 83,300 222,200 Total 6,958,500 5,929,400 12,887,900 Source: R.I. Dept. of Economic Development; Gladstone Associates. As important as the magnitudes noted is the distribution of this develop- ment over the long term. West Bay communities -- consisting of North Kingstown, South Kingstown, Narragansett, Exeter, and Jamestown -- accounted for only a minor portion of the state's industrial development total reflecting the lack of adequately serviced industrial sites, particularly with respect to sewer facilities and other necessary utilities. More basic, however, is the fact that past industrial markets have been focused in the state's urban areas. Development in the 1960's and 1970's focused in the Urban Center, Kent County and North-Northwest Rhode Island. Together these three subareas accounted for more than 11 million square feet -- fully 87 percent -- of Rhode Island's new industrial floor space. While future industrial development may not follow this pattern to the same extent, the scale of this activity points up the compe- titive nature of industrial markets throughout most of the state. -23- RHODE ISLAND ubareas 11R0v1Dv'4cF ca 8URR1LLV#LLE NORTH CUMBERLAND S MITHFIELD G L 0 C E S T E SM17HFIELD - 4- I'm" tu- ket PROVI I- NCE proviaence JOHNSTON 3 F 0 S T 1 0 S C I T L) A T Cranston Z 4. to KEN1 civ ek C 0 V E N Y R Y < WEST GINE&Nw#Cm TIVERT04 PORTSMOUTH T A@ E R f 1.1.1 A-Ad-rMn r LITTLE COMPTON RICHMONC) OPKINTON ......- MIDDLETOWN N-Wft [email protected] SOUTH INGS TOWN 0 CHARLESTOWN WE S T@Epl Y 3 1. West Bay 2. Kent County &Urban Center 4. North/ Northwest Area 5.Bristol County 6.East Bay 7. Southwest Area Central Portion a@@j SCALE NEW S"O"EHAM 041LES WASHINGTON W. -24- Quonset Point/Davisvill e AbsorptionForecast Absorption potential for the Quonset Point/Davisville industrial acreage set forth below takes full account of these past'trends. Assuming a Floor Area Ratio of 0.2 -- i.e., the ratio of floor space to land area -- for approximately 630 acres of industrial uses about 5.5 million square feet of new industrial space would be marketed at this site. This represents slightly less than one-half of the new space built in the entire state over the last ten years, and 25 times more space than was constructed in the entire West Bay over the same time frame. Simply stated, the scale of this acreage is quite sizeable compared with past Rhode Island industrial markets. At the same time, Quonset Point/Davisville affords marketing resources not available in other industrial parks in the state. Included here are: water frontage, planned secondary sewage treatment capacity; necessary supporting utilities; large contiguous sites; and other major features. Also noted in this analysis-is available industrial land in West Bay and Kent County locations which would be somewhat competitive with Quonset Point/ Davisville. Clearly, alternative sites -- such as the existing Hillsgrove and West Warwick industrial parks and the recently announced project off 1-95 in West Warwick-Coventry-West Greenwich -- will compete for some of the same tenants. -More important, however, is the fact that these locations will also complement each other, offering parcels-of-varyi.ng size, different amenities,. etc. Thus, the availability of these alternative West Bay and Kent County loca- tions -- including Quonset -- will enhance DED's overall recruitment effort, although likely slowing the absorption of the former Navy base somewhat. -25- Similarly, Quonset absorption also should reflect the diffused pattern of new industry in the state given particular locational requirements with respect to a variety of factors including: markets; labor pool; transporta- tion; base materials and related items. On balance, an absorption period of 20 years will likely be required to fully market the industrial land at Quonset Point/Davisville. Industry Types Equally important to the socio-economic assessment has been an identifica- tion of the industry types likely attracted to the site. Included are on-shore petroleum support companies, warehousing, and manufacturing industries. Focus in this section is on manufacturing industries, while petroleum support and warehousing are discussed elsewhere in this report. As a starting point, so-called "target industries" identified by Harbridge House would be given high priority for this location. This process aim s at identifying specific industries -- on a four digit SIC level -- which comprise the "main targets" for the aggressive industrial recruitment program now under- way. These industries in turn were identified because they respond to several of the state's objectives -- e.g., labor intensive enterprises,reqqiring highly skilled workers and-payi-ng commensurately high wages and salaries. These indus- tries and their projected national growth rates and.prospective employment ex- pansion in Rhode Island are displayed in Table 111-2. -26- TABLE 111-2 SUMMARY PROFILE OF TARGET INDUSTRIES STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1972-1985 Expected Expected Annual Employment Growth Annual industry GrowtW Nation Rhode lsland@/ Biological Products a-10% Medicinal Products 8-10% 150,000 300-600 Pharmaceutical Preparations a-10% Medical Electronic Equipment 12-30% 16,000 50-100 Dental EquJpment & Supplies 7-12% 16,000 56-100 Communications Equipment 12-25% 316.000 600-1,000 Engineering, Laboratory, Scientific & Research Instruments 12-25% 44,000 150-300 Instruments for Measuring and Testing of Electricity & Electrical Signals 12-25% 65,000 200-400 Instruments for Measurement. Display. & Control of Process Variables 12-25% 39,000 150-300 Turbines 4-6 % 47,000 50-100 Total -- 693,000 1,550-2,900 These rates reflect Harbridge House estimates-of employment and'sales growth. Derived by estimating a R.I. employment share capture ratio of between 3-5 percent annually of industry growth. Source: Harbridge House, Inc.; R.I. Dept. of Economic Development. While reflecting high growth possibilities, and most lucrative from the state's standpoint, it would be unrealistic to conclude that these would be the only industries attracted to Quonset Point/Davisville. Accordingly, we have examined a series of other industry sectors in order to identify complementary SIC categories for.likely future industrial development, Criteria here include recent employment growth in Rhode Island, new industrial construction, target industries, other national growth industries from which Rhode Island could benefit and finally, underrepresent6d.indu�tries'in the state. (Table 111-3 on the following page.) -27- TABLE 111-3 MOST LIKELY KkNUFACTURING INDUSTRIES FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT AT QUONSET POINTIDAVISVILLE Other Growth Recent Recent Harbridge Industry Employment Industrial House Target Identified hu Under-represent* Industry Growth Construction Industry Harbridge HouZW R. 1. Industr Publishing and Printing X Chemicals X X Rubber Products X Leather Products X Glass X Fabricated Metals X X Machinery X Electrical Machinery X X X X Transportation Equipment X Instruments X X Miscellaneous (includes silver and jewelry) X, X ]J Unpublished Harbridge House estimates of potential employment growth in Rhode Island. Refers to those industries which are growing in New England but declining in employment in Rhode Island. Source: Gladstone Associates As shown, the target industry m ix is broadened to include publishing and printing, rubber products, leather products, glass, fabricated metals, trans- A&".9 portation equipment, and miscellaneous industries which include silver and M, jewelry companies. In sum, this broadened list of industries has served as a primary input to the socio-economic and environmental assessment carried ou in this master planning process. While not intended to be entirely compre- hensive within the scope of this study, this mix represents likely industry groups that might be attracted to the former Navy base. Taken together the absorption forecast and industry mix, combined with the conclusions on petroleum support industries and ancillary commercial -28- facilities in the following two chapters, are incorporated directly into the socio-economic assessment of direct and indirect impacts. Additional statis- tical information on background market conditions is contained in Appendix A while development assumptions and supplementary impact data is delineated in Appendix C. -29- CHAPTER IV PETROLEUM SUPPORT INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL A key aspect of the socio-economic assessment has been to evaluate the scale and characteristics of on-shore facilities that might be attracted to Quonset Point/Davisville as a result of oil and gas development on the outer continental shelf -- including Georges'Bank and the Mid-Atlantic Region. Patently, the possibility of petroleum support bases has stirred concern among interested parties in Rhode Island. Specific issues have included environmental questions relating to potential oil spills in Narragansett Bay, possibilities for only short-lived activity causing similar adverse impacts to the Navy departure, importation of large amounts of skilled labor to fill these jobs rather than using existing Rhode Island work force, etc. We have addressed these issues by drawing on authoritative sources and coverage such as the NERBC-RALI projects for Georges Bank and the Woodward- Clyde Associates study of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Although the "find" level remains the key unknown variable, reasonable development potentials at Quonset Point/Davisville have been established based on the timing and nature of likely petroleum support uses under medium and high find assumptions. W These findings are presented in summary-form below; more detailed infor4,.,, mation is contained in Appendix B to this report. Overview of Marketability On-shore petroleum support industries encompass a wide range of ope ions from service bases to gas processing plants and refineries. Our task here was to identify those uses potentially attracted to the Davisville site and, con- Versely, to exclude those for which other, better located or more appropr iate 1z sites were available. In so doing, attention has been focused on on-shore -30- faci lities needs to service the Georges Bank region, while recognizing the possibility that the Mid-Atlan tic Region could also be serviced from this site. A summary of all oil support facilities considered and the likely develop- ment at Quonset Point/Davisville (shown in Table IV-1 below) includes service bases, platform fabrication yards and installation service bases, pipelines and related uses, gas processing plants, marine terminals and a refinery. TABLE IV-1. ESTIMATtS OF OCS-RELATED ONSHORE SUPPORT FACILITIES FROM MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK AND MID-ATLANTIC SCENARIO AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE Total!/ Quonset Capture (Maximum@/ Number of Land-U-se Number of Land Use Oil Support Facilities Facilities (Acres) Facilities (Acres) Service Bases: Temporary 5-6 114 2-5 30-80 Permanent ..10-18 790 5-14 290-480 Platform Fabrication Yard 1 1,000 1 100 Platform Installation Service Base 2 20 1 20 Pipelines ind Landfalls 8 242 0 Pipeline Installation IN Service Base 20Y 1+ 20+ K ';@7 Pipe Coating Yard 121 100-1/ _.I + 100+ Gas Processing Plants 10 720 0 Marine Terminals 2 80 0 S' @ e Refinery 0 0 0 Totals 31086+ 560-800+ Y NERBC-RALI Project, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development (George oodward-Clyde, Mid-Atlantic Regional StuTy; Gladstone Associates. Figures are for Georges Bank only. Mid-Atlantic region figures are not available. In terms of Quonset development, primary potentials cover general service bases as well as platform and pipeline installation bases. In addition, a small -31- platform fabrication yard has been included reflecting the expressed desire by the Brown and Root Company to establish a facility at Quonset Point/ Davisville. Assuming a "100 percent capture" of all identified uses, approximately 800'acres of land would be required to accommodate them. However, because of the limited water frontage and the Department of Economic Development's desire to attract a more diversified industry mix to Quonset, only approximately 400 acres of oil-related development have been incorporated into alternatives I and II. From a marketability standpoint, therefore, the final development schemes represent an achievable and realistic capture of likely on-shore petro- leum support facilities. It is also important to recognize the significant uses for which market support is limited and which were eliminated from further consideration in this study. Included here are: (1) a refinery which would not be needed because of existing capacity in Pennsylvania and New Jersey; (2) pipelines and landfalls which would be located closer to the actual field; (3) a gas processing plant for which a Quonset location would be somewhat off-center to the existing distribution system and also be difficult to site on the former Navy base; and (4) marine terminals which-ordinarily are established to supply a refinery or load tankers from a landfall site, neither of which would likely occur as mentioned above.. Thus, the number of on-shore support activities covered is somewhat limited and correspondingly, the socio-economic assessment which follows has been tailored to reflect the specific nature of these possible uses. Phasing and Employment Again drawing on the New England River Basins Commission report, activity at Quonset Point/Davisville was forecast based on detailed projections of on-shore -32- land use and employment for each year and for each oil support activity. These detailed forecasts -- shown in Appendix B -- were then incorporated into the broader direct and indirect analyses described in the following chapters. Two specifically oil-related issues which were addressed bear mentioning at this point: (1) the question of timing of employment build-up and particu- larly,withdrawal, and (2) the concern that non-Rhode Island persons might obtain the majority of the jobs generated (Table IV-2 below). TABLE IV-2 COMPARATIVE OIL-RELATED ESTIMATES TOTAL vs. RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT Scenario I Scenario II Resident Employmenf Resident Empl-oyment Total Percent Total Percent Selected Years Employment Number of Total Employment Number of Total 4 760 540 71% 885 605 6n 5 1,025 755 74% 1.165 815 70% 6 1,635 1,230 75% 1,685 1,260 75% 7 2,040 1,540 75% 2,000 1,515 76% 8 2,410 1,830 76% 2,130 1,615 76% 9 2,125 1,605 76% 2,060 1,580 77% 10 2,250 1,710 76% 2,095 1,610 77% 11 2,085 11590 76% 1.845 1,430 78% 12 2,075 1,605 7n 1,645 1,255 76% 13 2,050 1,595 78% 1,350 1,035 77% 4 14 890 680 76% 270 205 76% C,-' @V 15 660 510 77% 190 145 76% 20 475 380 80% 315 250 79% "f 25 305 245 80% 185 145 78% Source: NERBC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development@ Estimates for New England; Gladstone Ts-sociates. Information relating to both of these issues shows that there is a definite peak ing of activity under both high and medium finds from years 7 through 13 with a rather significant decline in jobs after that time, an out- look that pose s a policy question for which several trade-offs must be con- sidered. First, the long term prospect of relatively mode st employment is not an area of concern since the commitment of land for oil-related uses would -33- not be permanent, and valuable waterfront parcels in Davisville and Dogpatch would be available for re-use. Given these factors and the prospect for in- tensive industrial development in the short term, we believe it would be advantageous for the state to continue its marketing efforts to petroleum support industries. Also shown in Table IV-2 above is the expected ratio of resident to total oil-related employment. Of initial concern here was the prospect that petroleum support industries would utilize Rhode Island residents for only 30-40 percent of their work force needs. After closely examini.ng available resource ma- terials -- specifically NERBC-RALI forecasts -- for the types of uses expected at Quonset Point/Davisville, it would appear this concern is over-stated. Specifically, the expectation is for 70-80 percent of petroleum support jobs at Quonset Point/Davisville to go to Rhode Island residents. 'Thus, the at- traction of petroleum support industries would significantly improve the state's current problem with unemployment rather than provide only a marginal number of jobs to local residents. As mentioned earlier, the timing and nature of oil-related industry build-up is incorporated in the direct and indirect impact analyses which follow. In addition, the detailed methodology and assumptions relating to this portion of the socio-economic assessment are contained in Appendix B to this report. -34- CHAPTER V COMPLEMENTARY COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES In addition to the general manufacturing and petroleum support industries, an overview analysis of retail, office, hotel and marina marketability was also undertaken. Findings presented here rely primarily on previous marketability reports commissioned by the Department of Economic Development and identified develop- ment opportunities (included in the alternativ e scenarios) which in turn, were incorporated into the socio-economic assessment. A brief description of these respective opportunities is contained in the paragraphs below, and detailed in market and statistical terms in Appendix A. As with the industrial market overviews presented in the preceding two chapters, the key conclusions here relate to the scale'and timing of new developments supportable at the Quonset Point/Davisville site. Retail Outlook 41-1 The Navy departure from North Kingstown dramatically reduced the purchaethgF's power in the trade area and severely impacted sales by local retailers. adverse impacts were examined in a report entitled Commercial Impact Ana 'SV Post Road Corridor, North Kingstown, Rhode Island, dated August 1975. The principal finding is that several years will be required before retail sales in this corridor return to early 1970's levels. Accordingly, new retail space will not be supportable at least through 1980 and more likely through 1985, when area purchasing power -- a function of both the number of households and their income -- exceeds the capacity of existing retailers to provide ade- quate services. -35- Also considered has been the configuration of the Quonset Point/Davisville site. Clearly, new retail facilities require frontage on (and visibility and a.ccess to) Post Road. This means that only the North Mill Creek Parcel will be suitable for sizeable retail development. Even so, we judge that this loca- tion does not compare favorably with other possible sites for a future 500,000 square foot regional shopping center -- either physically or in market support terms. Accordingly, the analysis here has been keyed to a community shopping center of, at most, 250,000 square feet. This center could be developed in two phases beginning in.1990 with 150,000 square feet followed by a 100,000 square foot addition by the year 2000. While this center would include shoppers goods outlets mostly -- i.e., general merchandise, apparel, and furniture -- a major superma rket and other supporting convenience goods stores would also be represented Although many considerations would have to be taken into account before a final shopping center "deal" were concluded, we judge a community center of this size to be a realistic possibility and have included it in the overall Quonset Point/Davisville development program. Office Outlook The market for suburban Class A office space in Rhode Island has be extremely limited in the past. With the exception of perhaps two projec, Allendale Insurance and Metropolitan Life -- there has been no significa suburban office development and certainly no speculative space (pre-built before leasing takes place) built. Given the lack of demonstrated market support for such a project, we can only postulate as to possible Quonset office development over the long term. Clearly, the site amenities represented by the. golf course, airport, and -36- potential views of Narragansett Bay make Quonset a potentially attractive loca- tion for a major office space user. Accordingly, a total of 66 acres near the golf course, phased over time, has been reserved for possible office uses, and has been included in the socio-economic assessment. The implied strategy here would-be to dispose this property for office uses, while simultaneously marketing other portions of the site to industrial firms. If available industrial land on the.site becomes scarce, then the land use scheme can be modified to change this office use to light industrial ac- tivities, if necessary. On balance, we judge that there is a reasonable probab ility that office users can be attracted to this site, and have therefore included it in all of the development scenarios. Hotel Outlook Similar to office space, demonstrated market support for additional hotel -rooms at Quonset Point/Davisville is lacking. In the past, modern hotel fa- cilities have located strictly in close-in locations to Providence and near touHst attractions such as Newport. This observation was confirmed in two reports (Market Analysis, Resort Hotel Potentials, Prudence Island Surplus Property and Rhode Island Visitors Surve y) which indicate limited hotel market supports from tourism and conventions in the West Bay and for Quonset Point/ Davisville. Accordingly, hotel, development at Quonset will depend almost entirely on business visitation generated by new industrial firms at the site. As such, the possibility for a 150 room hotel project which might be built by Year 10,- assuming that industrial firms locate at Quonset approximately as projected, has been inclu ded in this analysis. -37- Marina Outlook Also shown in the alternative scenarios, the Allen's Harbor Area has'been designated for a 200-slip marina. Market supports for this size facility are well documented in the DED-sponsored reports Marihas:and:Pleasupe Boating Facilities Study. Specifically indicated here is that expected demand for slips will greatly exceed the current and anticipated supply in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, development prospects for 200 slips at Allen's Harbor are strong and could be achieved within the relatively short term -- three years or less. In sum, appropriate sites and adequate market support have been identified for these uses at Quonset Point/Davisville. These estimates -- it should be noted -- are not predictions of what will happen but do provide a sense of scale and timing of what could happen given anticipated economic and market conditions. As such, this estimated development has been included in the alternative development program and the attendant socio-economic impacts have been measured, as detailed in Chapters VI and VII following. -38- CHAPTER VI EXAMINATION'OF*DIRECT:IMPACTS Direct impacts indicated in this chapter include a delineation of con- struction employment benefits arising from site development and a broader analysis of employment generated in both the short and long term for the alternative development scenarios. On this latter point, the number of jobs, occupational/skill level and annual payroll have been estimated. Each of these factors is discussed in more detail in the paragraphs below. Site Development Construction Employment The cost of developing the Quonset Point/Davisville site has been examined for each of the three development alternatives. Site development costs include project-wide infrastructure improvements such as rail spurs, sanitary sewer costs, storm drainage, and roads in addition to providing utilities and access to individual development parcels in bringing these sites to a "ready to use" state. Cost estimates were detailed in the Keyes Associates' report and have been modified somewhat by the Department of Economic Development. Estimated revised costs are presented in Table VI-1 on the following page. As shown, the construction budget for site development ranges from a low of $16.5 million in Scenario III to a high of $34.7 million in the high find oil scenario. The primary difference among these scenarios is the cost required to provide bulkheading and new finger piers in the medium and high @4i '-Z find scenarios respectively. Besides this major infrastructure item, site improvements and development costs remain constant throughout the three al ternati ves. -39- TA BLEXI-1 SUMMARY OF SITE REDEVELOPMENT COSTS ALTERNATIVE FACILITIES PLAN SCENARIOS QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE Site Redevelqpment Costs (000's) Subarea Scenario I Scenario 11 Scenario-1-11 Davisville Piers $ 350.9 $ 350.9 $ 350.9 Dog Patch $19.376.2 $16,191.3 $ 989.8 Flightpath $ 148.5 $ 148.5 $ 148.5 Warehouse Area $1.782.4 $1,945.8 $ 1,945.8 Golf Course Area $2,540.2 $2,540.2 $ 2,540.2 Personnel Support Area $1,098.0 $1,185.1 $ 1,185.1 Revenue Producing Area $ 319.3 $ 319.3 $ 319.3 Kiefer Park Housing Area $2,113.7 $2.113.7 $ 2,113.7 North Mill Creek Parcel $1.476.2 $1,476.2 $ 1,476.2 West Davisville Parcel $ 215.6 $ 215.6 $ 215.6. Subtotal $29,421.0 $26,486.6 $11,285.0 Rail Spur-(Areas 6.7,13) $ 956.5 $ 956.5 $ 956.5 Sanitary Costs $1,429.8 $1,429.8 $ 1,429.8 Storm Drainage S2,863.0 $2,863.0 $ 2,863.0 Primary Access Corridor Subtotal $5,249.3 $5,249.3 $ 5,249.3 Total $34,670.3 $31.735.9 $16,534.3 Cost per Acre $45,026 $41,214 $21,472 Source: Rhode Island Department of Economic Development; Quonset Point Technical Park Facilities Stud& Keyes Associates, March, 1977; stone Associates. Based on these budget estimates and using broad "rules of thumb" the amount of construction employment and payroll have been scaled (Table VI-2). At the.high end under Scenario I, an estimated 4,650 to nearly 6,000 man months of construction employment would be created by the Quonset capital improvement program. By comparison, the less expensive site development under Scenario III would result in approximately 2,200 to 2,850 man months. In addition, direct construction wages would be substantial under all these alternatives. For Scenario I, co nstruction wages would be on the order of $7.3 to $9.4 million, reflecting the assumed labor proportions in the capital improvements plans. For Scenario III, wages would total between $3.5 and $4.5 million. -40- TABLE V1-2 ESTIMATES OF CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE FACILITIES PLAN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Scenario I Scenario 11 Scenario III Total Construction Costs (000's) $34.670 $31,736 $16,534 Estimatedl@abor Cost (000' S)2J $12,135-$15,602 $11,108-$14.281 $5,787-$7,440 Construction ETyloyment (Man Months)- 4,650-5,980 4,260-5,470 2,220-2.850 Direct Con5 ruction Wages (000's)V $7,280-$9,360 $6,660-$8,570 $3,470-$4,460 Assumes total labor cost is between 35 and 45 percent of the construction budget. Based on total labor cost of $15 per hour and 174 hours per month. Based on direct wages of $9 per hour and 174 hours per month. Source: Keyes Associates, Quonset Point Technical Park Facilities Study, March, 1977; Gladstone Associates. Patently, the Jobs and wages created would provide a substantial boost to the construction industry which has suffered from high unemployment in recent years. Moreover, the benefits would not be limited to the jobs and wages from this capital improvements program. Rather, costs for materials, equipment and general overhead in construction fi rms would also be included in the economic benefits. Under the above assumptions, this would total between 55 and 65 percent of the construction budget for each of the alternatives. In the case of Scenario I, for example, this implies an additional $19.1-$22.5 million added to the state's economy, assuming no leakage to firms outside of Rhode Island. -41- On-Site Employment Created Given the estimated timetable for on-thore oil support facilities and likely absorption of industrial and commercial land, the amount of on-site employment has been estimated for the three development options. Further, these have been considered in both a short term and long term framework and are presented as Year 10 and Year 25 respectively. Employment estimates from new uses at Quonset Point/Davisville are given below for the marina, shopping center, hotel, Air National Guard, office park, general manufacturing and technical industries, platform fabrication and, service bases. Existing major users such as Electric Boat, the Port Authority, and the airport are not included in this summary but are assumed to continue at present levels. TABLE V1-3 COMPARATIVE SLHMARY OF ESTIKATED EMPLOYMENT FROM NEW USES QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEAR 10 Number of Employees User rcenario I Scenario II Scenario III Marina 20 20 20 Shopping Center Hotel 105 105 105 Air National Guard 205 205 205 Office Park 1,000 1,000 11000 General Manufacturing/ Technical Industries- 2,565 2.565 3,470 J Platform Fabrication Yard 1,250 1,250 Service Bases 1.270 1.155 Total 6.415 6,300 4,800 Includes Electric Boat expansion. Source: Gladstone Associates -42- As shown, the two oil-related alternatives account for a noticeably higher amount of new employment by Year 10. While nearly 4,800 jobs are estimated on-site for Scenario III, as many as 6,300 to 6,400 new jobs are anticipated for the medium and high find alternatives respectively. This reflects two factors: (1) that on-shore petroleum support activity would be expected to build up more quickly in the early years and begin peaking at approximately Year 10; and (2) that the prospects for more general industrial development would not likely match the absorpti on pace required by petroleum companies. Over the longer term, the amount of petroleum-related employment drops off dramatically as the need for platform fabrication is eliminated and service base requirements subside. Under this assumption, new on-site employment would total between 11,000 jobs in Scenario I and nearly 11,800 jobs in Scenario II (Table VI-4) TABLE VI-4 COMPARATIVE SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT FROM NEW USES QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEAR 25 Number of Employees User Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Marina 20 20 20 Shopping Center 830 830 830 Hotel 105 105 105 Air National Guard 205 205 205 Office Park 2,875 2,875 2,875 General Manufacturing/ Technical Industrie@'_/ 6,550 7,455 7,615 Platform Fabrication Yard Service Bases 435 295 Total 11.020 11,785 11,650 Includes Electric Boat expansion. S@urce: Gladstone Associates -43- Under these assumptions, the amount of new on-site employment is comparable under all scenarios since labor intensive industries would be sought and encouraged for the site as much as possible, including reuse of previous oil- related parcels in the later years. Expected Occupational/Skill'Lovels Besides the primary objective of stimulating new employment in the state, concern has been expressed with respect to the types of jobs created. The occupational breakdown for the three development alternatives is shown in Table V1-5 for non-oil industries. This forecast is consistent with Harbridge House's recommended industry targeting which seeks labor intensive, skilled and high paying industrial employment. TABLE VI-5 SUMMARY OF NON-OIL RELATED JOBS BY OCCUPATIONAL LEVEL, qUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEAR 25 New Non-Oil Employees Occupational Level Number Percent Professional, Technical, Managerial Administrative and.Sales Workers 3,750 32% Clerical and Kindred Workers 2,070 .18% Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 1,780 15% Operatives. Including Transport 3,490 30% Service Workers 240 2% Laborers 320 3% Total 11,650 100% jJ Does not include existing or expected oil-related users. Does include Electric Boat expansion. Note: The above estimates reflect projections for Scenario III but the proportions would remain constant for the other scenarios as well. Source: Gladstone Associates -44- One-third of the new jobs anticipated would be in professional, technical, managerial, administrative and sales worker classifications with another 18 percent clerical and kindred workers. In addition, 15 percent would be crafts- men, foremen, and related workers and 30 percent would be operatives most of whom would be skilled and semi-skilled. At this point, the limitations of using broad industry averages should be noted. In both the estimates of overall employment and the above occupational distributions, industry averages have been used without any adjustment for actual and as yet unknown Quonset operating facilities. Simply stated, the range of possible facilities that even one company might consider for this site precludes a precise.estimation of both the number of workers needed or their skills. Carrying this occupational analysis over to petroleum support industries, requirements for highly skilled labor are evident in the short term. Specifically, (Table VI-6) for both medium and high oil finds, professional and administrative and skilled workers would be expected to account for more than 65 percent of total petroleum support employment. This translates into more than 1,600 skilled jobs. Conversely, the number of unskilled workers required would be approximately .800 under both scenario's or approximately one-third. Over the long term, these proportions would be reversed, reflecting a reduction, by Year 25, in the absolute number of employees in petroleum-related industries. Thus, while nearly two-thirds of this work force would be classi- fied as unskilled, this translates into only 185 and 275 workers under medium and high find options respectively. -45- TABLE VI-6 SUMMRY OF OIL-RELATED JOBS BY SKILL LEVEL gUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEARS 10 AND 25 Medium Find High Find Year 10 Number Percent Number Percent Professional and Administrative 290 12.0% 300 11.9% Skilled Workers 1,325 55.1% 1,360 54.0% Unskilled Workers 790 32.9% 860 34.1% Total 2,405 100.0% 2,520 100.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year 25 Professional and Administrative 20 6.9% 30 6.6% Skilled Workers 90 29. n 130 30.4% Unskilled Workers 185 63.4% 275 63.0% Total 295 100.0% 435 100.0% Source: Frederic R. Harris, Inc; NERBC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development - Estimates for New England; Gladstone Associates. Estimated Payroll From New Uses The aspect of site direct impact follows a similar format as above. TABLE VI-7 COMPARATIVE SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED PAYROLL FROM NEW USES QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEAR 10 Payroll (millions) User Scenario I Scenario 11 Scenario III Marina 0.2 $ 0.2 0.2 Shopping Center -- -- -- Hotel 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 Air National Guard 2.7 2.7 2.7 Office, Park $17.4 $17.4 $17.4 General Manufacturing/ Technical Parkl/ $29.1 $29.1 $39.4 Platform Fabrication Yard $23.8 $23.8 -- Service Bases $21.6 $19-6 Total $95.6 $93.6 $60.5 I/ Includes Electric Boat expansion. Source: Gladstone Associates -46- As shown in Table VI-7, short term payroll for the three alternatives would be an estimated $60 million annually for-Scenario III in Year 10 and more than $90 million for Scenarios I and II. These estimates are carefully calibrated by cross-tabulating the number of jobs and occupational levels described in the preceeding paragraphs. Over the long term to Year 25, the estimated payroll of the three alterna- tives is more evenly balanced. As shown below in Table VI-8, new employment payroll would reach approximately $140 million under Scenario II and only slightly lesser levels under the other two alternatives. TABLE VI-8 COMPARATIVE SU144ARY OF ESTIMATED PAYROLL FROM NEW USERS QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEAR 25 Payroll (Millions) User Scenario I Scenario 11 Scenario III Marina $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 Shopping Center $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 Hotel $ 0.8 $ 0.8 0.8 Air National Guard $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 Office Park $38.7 $ 38.7 $38.7 General Manufacturing/,, Technical Park-v $74.3 $ 84.6 $86.5 Platform Fabrication Yard Service Bases $ 7-4 5.0 Total $132.7 $140.6 $137.5 .1/ Includes Electric Boat expansion. Source: Gladstone Associates -47- CHAPTER'VII ASSESSMENT OF INDIRECT IMPACTS In this chapter, indirect impacts are addressed for the following three topics: (1) "multiplier effects" of primary employment generated at Quonset; (2) levels of "induced" population growth and attendant growth management issues facing North Kingstown and surrounding West Bay communities; and (3) specific North Kingstown fiscal costs and benefits arising from reuse of the former Navy property. The discussion of each of these topics extends integrally from the direct impact analysis presented in the previous chapter. As such, these indirect impacts are intended to reflect orders of magnitude rather than pinpoint es- timates. Patently, to the extent that on-site development varies from the forecast indicated, associated indirect impacts will be proportionately altered. For purposes of this disc ussion, indirect impacts might be defined as those occurring off-site as a result of redevelopment activities at Quonset Point/Davisville. Estimated Multiplier Effects Multiplier effects have been calculated as a function of job spin-off generated by the introduction of new primary manufacturing jobs in the area. The secondary jobs would tend to be concentrated in retail trade and certain professional services which tend to follow new-erhployment and population- growth. The secondary jobs also include such categories as transportation, communications, utilities, insurance, real estate, construct ion and business services. As a word of caution, it should be noted that without extensive input/ output analyses, economic multipliers indicate -- at best -- broad possibilities. More specifically, without benefit of in-depth understanding of the effected -48- geographic area's supporting industry mix and current excess capacity, it is not possible to definitively forecast the number of new jobs created. A further complication is the problem of identifying the geographic area in which this secondary employment generation will occur. For example, while forecasts of primary employment at Quonset Point/Davisville are reasonably firm, projecti,ng job "spin-off" within North Kingstown or West Bay locations is neces- sarily more speculative. Also of direct bearing is the application of separate multipliers for manufacturing and oil-related jobs, shown below in Table VII-1. "Spin-off effects" of 0.6 to 0.7 secondary jobs for each manufacturing job created and slightly higher rates of 0.6 to 0.8 for oil-related activities are noted, re- spectively. These alternative ranges simply reflect the fact that the on- shore petroleum support industries likely will have specialized supply needs such as food catering, tool rental, waste disposal, etc. -- which are not already in place in Rhode Island. Accordingly, new enterprises will likely be required and will result in slightly higher "spin-offs" than in the case of manufacturing activities and the back-up supports in place for those functions. As with the direct impacts, we have estimated the multiplier effects within both a short-term and long-term framework. Beginning with year 10, we find that job spin-off estimates range from a low of 2,700 in Scenario III up to 4,500 in Scenario I. As in the direct impact section, this range reflects the slower build up of on-site jobs in Scenario III compared with the short- term petroleum support development. -49- TFBLE VII-1 ESTIMATED "MULTIPLIER" EFFECT JOB SPIN-OFF FROM QUONSET POINTIDAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMiENT SCENARIOS YEAR 10 Numb er of On-Site Jobs Multipliers Number of Secondary Jobs Manufacturin@ Oil- Manufacturing Oil- Manufacturing Dil- & Related Related & Related Related & Related Related Total tcenario 1 3,565 2,520 0.6-0.7 0.6-0.8 2,100-2,500 1,500-2.000 3,600-4.500 f enar io 11 3,565 2.405 0.6-0.7 0.6-0.8 2,100-2,500 1,400-1.900 3,500-4,400 enario 111 4,470 0.6-0.7 0.6-0.8 2,700-3.100 2,700-3,100 urce: U. S. Chamber of Commerce, What New Jobs Mean to a Community, 1973; NERSC-RALI, Tech Update 10, November, 1976; WoodAard-Clyde, Mid-Atlantic Reqional Study, October, 1975; Gladstone Associates. Over the longer term, differences in job spin-off among the three scenarios are reduced. As shown in Table VII-2. the 1 ow end,range of 4,800 to 6,900 secondary jobs in Scenario I is only slightly below that of thd 6,300-7,400 range for Scenario II. Simply put, this reflects the similarity of the three scenarios over the long-term, as parcels which are used for petroleum support industries in the early years -- in Scenarios I and II -- are reused later for general manufacturing similar to the planlin Scenario III. TABLE VII-2 ESTIMATED "MULTIPLIER" EFFECT JOB SPIN-OFF FROM QUON.SET-POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS YEAR 25 Number of On-Site Jobs Multipliers Number of Secondary Jobs Manufacturing Oil- Manufacturing Oil- Manufacturing Oil- Related Related & Related Related & Related Related Total Scenario 1 9,425 435 0.6-0.7 0.6-0.8 5,600-6.600 200-300 @.800-6,900 Scenario, 11 10,330 295 0.6-0.7 0.6-0.8 6,200-7,200 100-200 6,300-7,400 Scenario. 111 10.490. 0.6-0.7 0.6-0.8 6.300-7.300 6,300-7,300 '.Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce, What New Jobs Mean to a Communiu, 1973; NERBC-RALI Tech Update 10, November. 1976; Woodward-Clyde, Mid Atlantic Regional 5tudy- October, 1975; Giadstone Associates. -50- Looking at the above table in more detail, the reasons for this similarity are readily apparent. Specifically, by year 25, the number of oil-related jobs in Scenarios I and II is modest. Conversely, the number of manufacturing and related jobs among the three scenarios is relatively constant, reflecting full use of the former Navy base and identical usage of a major ity of the redeveloped parcels. Induced Growth and Attendant Impacts Analysis of possible induced population growth takes account of three principal factors: (1) "baseline" population forecasts; (2) likely commutation patterns; and (3) growth management implications. Baseline Forecasts. Estimates through the year 2000 by the Statewide Planning Program and Gladstone Associates are presented below in Table VII-3 for the West Bay and North Kingstown. These baseline projections are conditioned by past trends and take into account a number of key demographic factors such as fertility and death rates, migration, household size and formations, labor force participation, etc. Fundamental economic shifts -- such as the attraction of new industry and the redevelopment of Quonset Point/Davisville -- however, are not specifically accounted for. Stated in other terms, the estimates below are anticipated in the West Bay and North Kingstown even Jf extensive redevelopment at Quonset'does not occur. As shown, there are some slight differences between Gladstone Associates and Statewide Planning Program estimates. In general, the variance can be explained in terms of Gladstone Associates' having access to more recent data such as on household formation and housing occupancy -- than was available at the time the Statewide Planning Program estimates were prepared. TABLE VII-3 "BASELINE" POPULATION FORECASTS NORTH KINGSTOWN AND WEST BAY 1974-2000 West BayY North Kingstown SPPI/ GAN S P P?J GA N 1974 56,300 56,300 20,000 25,000 1980 64,700 63,300 25,300 29,700 1985 72,900 70,700 32.500 37,200 1990 81,900 78,000 40,000 41,300 2000 92,700 89,200 47,900 47,500 Y Includes North Kingstown, South Kingstown, Exeter, Narragansett, Jamestown and New Shoreham. Statewide Planning Program, Technical Memorandum #25 Gladstone Associates based on local estimates of current population levels and anticipated capture of statewide population growth; for a more detailed des- cription of this analysis see Rhode Island Military Housing Report, Gladstone Associates and Stahl/Bennett, Inc., November, 19/b. Note: Baseline proje@tions are based heavily on past trends and do not account for fundamental econo- mic shifts such as the Quonset Point/Davisville redevelopment. Source: Gladstone Associates On balance, the two sets of projections are quite similar. Specifically, population levels are expected to be approximately 90,000 in the West Bay by the year 2000. Indeed, West Bay population would increase by approximately 60 percent over the next 25 years representing an average annual growth of 2.3 to 2.5 percent -- for Gladstone Associates and Statewide Planning Program esti- mates respectively -- which is clearly a wholesome rate of growth compared to past trends. Si.milarly in North Kingstown, population increases are expected to be significant. While there is some discrepancy as to estimates of present popu- lation levels, forecasts for the year 2000 indicate that nearly 48,000 people will reside in the community in that year. -52- Again, different growth rates are implied in the two estimates. Nonethe- less, the primary conclusion is that North Kingstown population is expected to nearly double over the next 25 years. In terms of this discussion on future socio-economic change, this baseline forecast is significant, reflecting North Kingstown's increasing role as a bedroom community within the metropolitan region. Indeed, there are several current indications of this suburbanizing pressure, including: The Route 4 extension has generated significant developer interest in possible housing sites in this corridor on the western edge of the town; Despite sluggish economic conditions generally, sub-division ac- tivity -- both applications for new sub-divisions and expansions of existing ones -- has been notable; Despite the 1973 and 1974 gasoline shortage,.commutation from North Kingstown to employment centers in Providence, Cranston, and Warwick appears to be increasing; indeed, as new employment accrues to cities such as Warwick, the commuter's perception of North Kingstown's excellent accessibility will grow accordingly. Together, the baseline population projections described earlier and the above illustrative indications supporting these portend appreciable socio- economic change for the town. Growth management implications are discussed more fully below in this chapter, reflecting our judgement that these represent substantially more significant socio-economic issues for the town than does the specific indirect impacts arising from the Navy_base reuse. Quonset Point/Davisville Redevelopment and Induced Growth Redevelopment of Quonset Point/Davisville will result in a large increase in North Kingstown and West Bay employment -- as described in detail in the previous chapter -- and in turn will reflect "induced" population growth. -537 Two questions must be answered in this respect: (1) How much population is directly attributable to new employment at Quonset, and (2) How will this population be distributed geographically among North Kingstown, the balance of the West Bay subarea, and other portions of the state? Aggregate population generated has been estimated based on the following assumptions: (1) each job represents approximately one ho usehold, and (2) average household size, in general, will be approximately 3.0 persons. Applying these indices to new employment created on-site over the long term, we find that ap- proximately 33,000 persons would be directly supported by Quonset employment. Geographic distribution of this population hinges on commutation patterns of future Quonset Point/Davisville employees. Comparative past data and future expectations on commutation (presented in Table VII-4 below) includes informa- tion from the U.S. Census and Department of Transportation commuter surveys of five major area employers. Gladstone Associates' estimates for eventual new Quonset Point/Davisville employment distribution -- based on these data -- are also included in the table. As shown below, 1970 commutatioh to North Kingstown strongly reflects the Navy presence. Specifically, 65 percent of the people working within the town also lived there, reflecting the high concentration of people in Navy group quarters or military housing. By comparison, the number of people comi.ng to North Kingstown was diffused among several areas within the state. Analysis of similar data for Electric Boat during its start-up period indicates a radically different pattern. Only a small portion of these employees approximately 13 percent -- lived in North Kingstown, while nearly a third came from Kent County, another third from the Urban Center and fully one-fourth from var ious distant locations. -54- TABLE VII-4 COMPAUTIVE EMPLOYEE COMMUTATION PATTERNS SELECTED WEST BAY AREAS Gladstone Associates' 1970 Census Data 1975 Data for 1974 Data for Estimates for Quonset For North Kingstown Electric Boat Four Major Employers-/ -Pointlrgvisville-4/ Place of Residence Number Percent Number Percent -Number Percent Number Percent West Bav North Kingstown a 105 65.1% 26 13. r,. 52 3.6% 2,750-3,300 25- 30% Rem inder of West Bay-,/ '698 5.6% 8 4.1% 17 7.2% 1,100-1,650 70- 15% Subtotal 8,803 70.7% 34 17.4% 69 4.8% 3,85D-4.950 35- 45% Kent County 1.904 15.3% 57 29.2% 769 52.9% 2,750-3,300 25- 30% Urban Center 1,257 10.0% 55 28.2% 465 31.9% 2,200-2.750 20- 25% Balance 2/ 494 4.0% 49 25.1% 152 -1-0.400 1,100 10% Total 12,458 100.0% 195 100.0% 1,455 100.0% 11,000 100% Includes South Kingstown. Narragansett, Exeter, Jamestown and New Shoreham. 31 Includes commuters from cities and towns from other sections of Rhode Island and from Massachusetts. 3/ Includes Leesona Corp.. Leviton. BIF, and Apex. 4/ -Assumes average for the three scenarios in year 25; estimates reflect anticipated commuter preferences of new employees and do not attempt to account for@the capacity for cities/towns/subareas to accommodate this growth. Source: U. S. Census; R. 1. Department of Transportation; Gladstone Associates. Commutation patterns for four major employers in Warwick and West Warwick show that a majority of these employees live in Kent County. By contrast, less than 5 percent live in North Kingstown or other communities in the West Bay. Based on this information, we have projected commutation for new employees at Quonset Point/Davisville by year 25. Specifically, we anticipate that be- tween 35 and 45 percent of these employees will prefer to live in'West Bay communities and that most of these will desire North Kingstown locations. Reasons for this ju dgement go to: (1) the unlikelihood that employee concen-T trations in North Kingstown would approach the highly concentrated pattern evidenced during the Navy presence; (2) prospects that, over time, workers will seek-housing in the same subarea -- i.e., West Bay as their place of employ- ment; and (3) that m any workers already established in populated areas of Kent County and the Urban Center will choose to remain in these areas. -55- Analysis of Induced Growth. Combining the baseline forecast described earlier with the above commutation projections, possible levels of induced growth are calculated, as presented below in'Table VII-5. In terms of the "inducing effect" it is necessary to determine what proportion of the new jobs and resulting population would not have located in the West Bay or North Kingstown if Quonset were not redeveloped. The range of possible assumptions here include: (1) that the baseline forecasts show sufficient growth to accommodate this new development; (2) that all jobs at Quonset Point/Davisville would be unique to this subarea and that therefore the resulting population growth would be entirely above and beyond the baseline projection; and (3) that some proportion of the new jobs and population from Quonset should be considered as induced growth in the West Bay. TABL E VII-5 COMPARATIVE POPULATION FORECASTS WEST SAY AND NORTH KINGSTOWN 1974-2000 including Induced Growth" spp1/ GA2/ Mid Range-3 High Range4/ West Bay 1974 56.300 56.300 56,300 56.300 1985 72.900 70,700 75,500 82.600 2000 92,700 89,200 97.700 107.600 North Kingstown 1974 20.000 25,O0O 25,000 25.000 1985 32.500 37.200 39,500 44,000 2000 47.900 47,5OO 51.200 57,800 Statewide Planning Program. R.I Population Projections by county. City and Town, April, 1975, not including allowance for major in- dustrial redevelopment of Quonset. Gladstone Associates' forecasts taking account of current popula- tion estimates for North Kingstown; original forecasts were contained in R.I. Military housing Report November. 1975. Assumes that one third of the new jobs created at Quonset and the resulting population growth is "above and beyond" baseline pro- jections for West Bay; also assumes high end from commutation in table VII-4. Assumes that all of the new jobs created at Quonset and the resulting population growth will be "above and beyond" baseline projections for West Bay; also assumes high end from commutation in table V114. -56- Indicated here for the West Bay, therefore, is the previous baseline of approximately 90,000 people by the year 2000, with potential induced growth ranging up to more than 107,000 if all the jobs and resulting population is truly induced. More likely, however, is the mid-range of approximately 97,000 persons , which assumes that two-thirds of the increases would be expected in any case and that only one-third of the new employment and population is in fact induced. Similarly for North Kingstown, the year 2000 baseline is slightly less than 48,000 persons, with a mi d and high range of 51,000 and 57,000 respectively. These same estimates are displayed graphically on the chart following, which illustrate the amount of growth potentially attributable to Quonset Point/ Davisville compared to the normal basel.ine estimates. As shown, we judge the most probable population range to be between the baseline forecasts -- Lines A and B -- and the mid-range induced growth estimate indicated by Line C. At the same time, we consider that the estimates reflected by Line D or the high range -- although a possibility -- represent only a remote proba bi 1 i ty. Perhaps the most significant conclusion here is that even at the h.igh end, growth attributable to Quonset Point/Davisville is at most one-half of the in- crease represented by the baseline projections. In other words, growth pressures on North Kingstown and the surrounding communities are not tied to the rede- velopment project but will follow as a result of the normal course of suburban- ization on the western side of Narragansett Bay. In other words, the induced growth levels are likely to magnify already existing growth pressures, particularly if Quonset land is absorbed faster than Ye project and job build up also occurs more rapidly. -57- MOST PROBABLE "INDUCED" POPULATION GROWTH NORTH KINGSTOWN d. 60,000 C. b. 50,000 a. 40,000- 30,000 20,000 1974 1990 1995 1990 Im 20@6 a. Statewide Planning Program's Baseline b. Gladstone Associates' Baseline c. Mid-Range with Induced Growth d. High-Range with Induced Growth Current Population Estimates Most Probable Range Source: Gladstone Associates Growth Management Implications. Given the clear. growth pressures deriving from both baseline and induced population estimates,-- a series of questions must. be examined with respect to the likely impacts on the town. Simply put the es- sential issue concerns the means by which the town would accommodate the identified growth and the logical implications of the possible alternatives. Specifically, the town faces some basic policy choi-ces with respect to the growth scenarios. Future choices include large lot zoning, cluster zoning, con- centration of development in certain areas, and more urban forms of development. These choices represent a range of possible demands on the town's resources to provide necessary infrastructure and normal municipal services. Capital items such as new schools, sewer and water lines, and roads would all be required to accommodate substantially increased population levels. The key question revolves around the extent to which these items will be required and the town's financial capacity to provide them. Of concern here is the town's present policy leanings as reflecte d by the comprehensive plan. This plan was predicated on the continued Navy presence, and although the absolute population levels planned for are somewhat comparable to those discussed above, the means of accommodating this population are dif- ferent in the plan than would be required now that industrial redevelopment ap- pears possible. For example, the plan assumed that much of the Navy population would continue to reside in group quarters or military housing, while it is now clear that shelter for new population will have to be developed in other sec- tions of the town if the indicated population increases are to occur. Moreover, the comprehensive plan tends to reflect a desire for the town to retain its rural or semi-rural character. While this certainly is a choice that the town can pursue, the fiscal costs and benefits should be examined in detail. For example, although a detailed fiscal impact analysis for various policy alternatives is beyond the scope of this study, Table VII-6 below points to some possible cost/benefit trade-offs which should be examined. Using current assessment practices and tax rates, illustrative costs and revenues have been calculated. As shown, because of the high education costs and the greater number of school-aged children likely in large lot sub-divisions, fiscal costs and revenues are clearly out of balance for large lot sub-divisions compared to townhouses and garden apartments. Although the figures shown here -59- are illustrative in nature as opposed to pinpoint estimates -- they do reveal the nature of the fiscal trade-off that the town must consider. TABLE VII-6 ILLUSTRATIVE EXPIPLE OF MUNICIPAL COSTS AND REVENUES TYPICAL RESIDENTIAL PRODUCT TYPES TOWN OF NORTH KINGSTOWN Large Lot Single Single Family Att hed New Garden Family Detached Unitll/ Townhouse Uni Apartment Unit Estimated Revenues $1,470 $825 $550 Estimated Costs SchooT_s $2,350 $600 $300 General Fund S 290 $190 $180 Total $2,640 T7 90 T4 8-0 Nei Balance (Deficit) ($1,170) $ 35 $ 70 Assumes sales price of $80,000 for 4 bedroom house on one acre of land, with 1.6 school children and household size of 4.0 persons., .K/ Assumes sales price of $45,000 for 2 bedroom unit, with 0.4 school children and average household size of 2.g persons. Assumes monthly rent of $250 for I bedroom unit, with 0.2 school children and average household size of 2.5 persons. Source: Gladstone Associates. This is the type of analysis recommended in Chapter I -- which should be carried out for a series of growth alternatives. In so doing, policy-makers in the town can specifically choose the type of suburban development it wishes to encourage while at the same time being knowledgeable about the magnitude of the fiscal consequences of the chosen policy. The magnitude of this issue cannot be overemphasized, given the high popu- lation increases forecast. Patently, if the full amount of population growth were to be accommodated in large single family homes, a strong upward pressure on the town's effective tax rate would result. On the other hand, if an ef- fective channeling of more urban forms of development would occur, the fiscal balance might be controlled more effectively. -60- In essence, the need for effective growth management is strongly evident and is likely to be the dominant socio-economic issue in the town in the for- seeable future, regardless of whether the redevelopment of Quonset Point/ Davisville occurs as planned. Town Costs and Benefits from Redevelopment The attraction of new industry to this site carries with it certain costs and benefits to the town in the form of municipal services and either real property taxes, payments in lieu of taxes, or user charges. Est imates of these costs and benefits are dependent on the ultimate state policy for developing the property. Consequently, precise forecasts are not included as part of this study effort, although possible implications of several options are delineated. As a point of departure, assuming the state is financially capable to fully develop and operate the site, it would appear that the town's involvement would be somewhat limited. Specifically, on the cost side, the Port Authority would assume responsibility for most of the major "municipal" activities such as police and fire protection, road maintenance,.etc. On the revenue side, since the land would be state-owned, the redeveloped property would not go directly onto the town's tax role. Rather, revenue to the town would be in the form of payments in lieu of taxes and user charges. The policy with respect to these latter revenues has not been articulated as yet. On the one hand, it is clear that user charges for town owned and operated facilities -- such as perhaps the sewer plant or water system -- would be established to offset the town's costs in these matters. In addition, the town would receive payments in lieu of taxes to offset costs for off-site im- provements, services, and other indirect impacts as discussed above. At the other extreme, the state's financial position may dictate that substantial acreage be sold off, thereby generating sufficient cash flow for -61- the state to develop and manage the balance of the property. The difference here is that the property sold would then accrue to the town's tax base and provide the town with a direct revenue source. At the same time, the town would likely assume the corresponding responsibility for providing municipal services. The magnitude of these costs and revenues would clearly be dependent on the number of parcels the state sold to private interests. On balance, while revenues would likely exceed costs in this situation, it is difficult to estimate the magnitude of the surplus created. In all likelihood, however, this surplus would only partially offset the municipal cost incurred in accommodating the anticipated residential development. As a final note, it is precisely this type of policy/strategy questions which should be discussed in detail between the state and the town. The end result should be a mutually agreed upon policy for the development and operation of the site. This concludes the socio-economic assessment report. The Technical Appendices which follow are "resource" statistical materials which were gathered during the course of the analysis and which can be used as input to economic development policies for Quonset Point/Davisville and Rhode Island. I� -62- TECHNICAL APPENDICES, TECHNICAL APPENDIX A BACKGROUND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS - Employment - Background Demographic Indicators - Industrial Market Conditions - Retail Market Conditions - Background Office and Hotel Data - Existing Quonset Conditions @N @Jt TECHNICAL APPENDIX A BACKGROUND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS I. Covered Employment A. State Trends 1. Total covered employment declined by approximately 3,400 jobs annually between 1970 and 1971; for 1972-1975, the number of jobs decreased by 2,500 per year. 2. This overall decline of approximately 10,99Q jobs between 1970 and 1975 includes the slight recession in 1971, recovery in 1972 and 1973, and the effects of the Navy pull-out and severe recession in 1974 and 1975. 3. Manufacturing employment in Rhode Island declined by 5,900 jobs or 5.2 percent annually for 1970-1971; the decline continued in 1972- 1975 with a job loss of 2,000 annually or 1.7 percent per year. 4. By contrast, non-manufacturing employment in the state increased by 2,500 jobs in 1970-1971 and declined only slightly -- by 500 jobs annually -- between 1972 and 1975. 5. Over the long term -- for the period 1960 through 1973 -- comparing Rhode Island employment change with that of New England, a slight lag is evident; specifically, while New England's employment grew by 2.2 percent annually, the number of jobs in Rhode Island increased by only 1.9 percent per year; in other words, Rhode Island's share of New England employment declined from 7.9 percent to 7.6 percent. 6. Looking at manufacturing employment, we find that Rhode Island has fared better than the region; during the 1960-1973 period, Rhode Island Jobs actually increased by 340 per year and New-England decreased by more than 3,500 on average; accordingly, Rhode Island's share of manufacturing employment increased from 8.2 percent in 1960 to 8.8 percent in 1973; finally, the fact that Rhode Island's manufacturing employment is proportionately somewhat higher than its share of total employment tends to indicate past relative success in attracting and retaining manufacturing industries in the state. 7. Similarly examining non-manufacturing employment, a Rhode Island lag is apparent compared to the New England region; although non-manufac- turing jobs in Rhode Island increased by nearly 5,100 over the long term, the 3.0 percent annual growth rate was noticeably lower than the 3.7 percent rate of increase in all of New England; as a result, Rhode Island's share of regional non-manufacturing employment has declined from 7.6 percent in 1960 to 7*.2 percent in 1973. A-1 8. Summary Conclusions a. Long term Rhode Island employment growth -- for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries -- has been relatively modest, reflecting moderate economic expansion throughout the New England region. b. Recent declines in total employment and particularly manufacturing jobs in the state -- as a result*of the Navy withdrawal and 1974- 1975 recession -- have magnified the problems associated with an only moderately expanding economy and dramatized the need to con- tinue efforts to attract new industry and enlarge the state's economic base. B. Central Portion Trends 1. Total employment in the West Bay subarea (see map following for state subarea definitions) decreased by approximately 200 jobs or 3.2 percent between 1970 and 1971; more recently, relatively rapid employ- ment increases of more than 800 jobs annually have been experienced. 2. In Kent County, 1970-1971 job increases were on the order of 200 per year; this growth level has also increased noticeably to approximately 785 new jobs annually or 2.6 percent per year between 1972 and 1975. 3. In the Urban Center the tota 1 loss of jobs averaged nearly 2,500 and more than 1,300 annually for 1970-1971 and 1972-1975,.respectively. 4. West.Bay manufacturing jobs, after decreasing by nearly 400'-between 1970 and 1971, grew sharply by nearly 700 new jobs per annum between 1972 and 1975; in both Kent County and the Urban Center the number of manufacturing jobs decreased noticeably in both the 1970-1971 and 1972-1975 period, following the definite pattern of declining manufac- turing employment throughout the@state. 5. Non-manufacturing employment increased at healthy rates in both Kent County and West Bay, accounting for a large proportion of the state's overall increases in non-manufacturing employment in the early 19701s; in the Urban Center the number of non-manufacturing jobs has remained relatively stable in the first half of the 1970's. 6. Summary Conclusions a. The central portion of the state and most particularly the West Bay and Kent County have been less adversely affected by the recent economic difficulties experienced throughout the state. b. Notably, the non-manufacturing industrial sectors in West Bay and Kent County locations have accounted for disproportionately large amounts -- on the order of 60-75 percent of Rhode Island's increased non-manufacturing employment. A-2 RHODE ISLAND- Subareas PROVIDENCE CO DURRIL LV I L LE NORI N CUMBLRt. ANL) MIINF$ELD G L 0 C E S T E P nip" t P040'1 DE NCE Providence JOHNSTON F 0 S T E A S C I T 1) A T Cransto 't EMIR= r %ar"i, k C 0 V E N I R Y "I I WEST GREE NVVICH A, cb TIVERTON POP TSMOUTH E X E T E Ft 1@ L1,A 0 JAMESTOWN 6! LITTLE COMPTON RIC64MON @OPKINTON MIC)o iTOWN 0 SOUTH cut INGSTOWN 0 C.HARLESTOWN WESI@Rt Y i. West Say 2. Kent County 3. Urban Center 4. North/ Northwest Area S.Bristol County 6.East Say 7.Southwest Area CU-81.11t All NOR, H S "a Central Portion v@@v SCALE NEW SMOREHAM 0 Ip MILES c. This indicates a relatively healthy economic condition in these two subareas and reflects the continuing trend of suburbanization to these locations, despite somewhat stagnant economic trends for the state as a whole; simply stated, the West Bay and Kent County are beneficiaries primarily of intra-migration rather than a part of overall state growth. II. Population A. State Trends 1. Between 1960 and 1970, Rhode Island population increased by more than 9,000 persons annually or 1.0 percent. However, with the Navy pull- out and the-beginning of the recession, estimates for 1974.indica'te a net loss of approximately 2,350 persons per year since 1970, repre- senting an annual decrease of approximately 0.2 percent. 2. Comparing Rhode Island with New England, we find that the pattern set by employment trends prevails, with state population growing- more slowly than the're@gion's; specifically, since-1950,-the-stat6 has averaged a growth rate of 1.0 percent annually while the comparable rate for New England was 1.3 percent per year; accordingly, Rhode Island's share of New England population has declined from 8.5 per- cent in 1950 to 8.0 percent in 1973. B. Central Portion Trends 1. From 1960-1970, the central portion of the state grew by approximately 4,150 persons annually or 0.7 percent; during the 1970-1974 period, a slight decline has occurred,-.primaitily, as a result of the'Navy pull-out: 2. The Kent County area has exhibited the strongest growth trends, with nearly 3,000 persons added per yearduring the 1960's and nearly 2,100 between 1970 and 1974; growth in the West Bay was also very strong during the 1960's but has declined during the early 1970's; in both the 1960-1970 and 1970-1974 periods, the Urban Center has suffered population losses as suburban communities tended toldevelop at the expense of older urban cities. 3. Analyzing the components of population change for 1970-1974, we find that strong out-migration has occurred; in the West Bay, North Kings*town suffered major population losses as a direct result of the Navy depar- ture; in the Urban Center, also, out-migration occurred in Providence, Pawtucket and Central Falls, indicating that the pattern of suburbani- zation which began in the 1960's is continuing in the 1970's; by con- trast, communities in Kent County continue to attract new residents, with in-migration occurring particularly in Coventry and Warwick. C. Summary Conclusions 1. Kent County and West Bay have accounted for a large proportion recent state population increases. A-4 2. With the exception of North Kingstown -- which lost a large amount of Navy group quarters population -- West Bay and Kent County com- munities have been growing as a result of intra-migration within the state, reflecting continued strong suburbanization in these two subareas, which is occurring despite moderate population growth state- wide. III. Household Indicators A. State Trends 1. Because of the increasing tendency toward smaller households, the rate of households formations during the 1.960's -- 1.3 percent -- exceeded popul.ation growth rates. 2. Specifically, the number of households increased from approximately 257,000 in 1960 to nearly 292,000 in 1970, an increase of approximately 3,460 households each year. B. Central Portion Trends 1. Nearly 2,000 of the state's added households accrued to the central portion of the state; Kent County accounted for nearly half of this growth while both West Bay and Urban Center subareas experienced sizeable gains. C. Summary Conclusions 1. As with population trends, West Bay and Kent County subareas are the fastest growing in the state. 2. This reflects the strong migration pattern cited earlier, as population follows new housing development in these suburban areas. IV. Personal Income A. State Trends 1. Between 1960 and 1970, median family income increased by $400 annually or 3.9 percent. 2. This growth level -- in both percentage terms and absolute dollars is commensurate with increases in the income experienced in urban areas throughout the country during the 1960's. B. Central Portion Trends 1. Growth in Kent County and West Bay income was particularly strong, while that in the Urban Center tended to lag behind state growth 4 norms.. A-5 2. Clearly, absolute income in Kent County is much higher than either the West Bay or urban center; specifically, median income in Kent County of $15,700 was 12 to 14 percent higher than medians in the other two subareas. C. Summary Conclusions 1. These income trends are a further illustration of increased suburban- ization of Kent County and West Bay. 2. Specifically, this reflects the movement of relatively affluent fami'lies who are able to afford the new housing developed in these two subar6as. V. Industrial Market Conditions A. New Construction 1. State Trends a. Between 1966 and 1975, nearly 12.9 million square feet of new industrial space was constructed; annual construction has fluc- tuated widely with a low of 485,000 square feet in 1975 and a high of 2.1 million square feet in 1966; this reflects business cycles on a national and regional level. b. New construction was slightly more extensive during the late 1960's than in the early 1970's; specifically, approximately 1.4 million square feet of new space was added annually between 1966 and 1970 while an average of only 1.2 million square feet was constructed in the 1970's. c. In terms of industry mix, the largest proportions of new space were constructed for jewelry and silverware companies (included in SIC 39), fabricated metals (SIC 34), electrical machinery SIC 36), and instruments (SIC 38). d. Industries not represented or with only minor amounts of new construction'include: petroleum, leather, apparel, wood products, furniture and paper. e. Looking at the size distribution of new plant construction, a large majority are less than 25,000 square feet; specifically, of approxi- mately 457 new projects undertaken between 1966 and 1975, 40 per- cent have been between 5,000 and 10,000 square feet and approximately 34 percent have been 10-25,000 square feet in size; by contrast, Rhode Island has had very few projects larger than 250,000 square feet over the last ten years. 2. Central Portion Trends a. Approximately two-thirds of the State's new space has accrued to the central portion; the Urban Center has captured the largest share of the three subareas, with new construction totalling more than 5 million square feet between 1966 and 1976; development was also active in Kent County with 3.4 million square feet constructed; in the West Bay, only a very minor amount -- 224,000 square feet -- was built, representing less than 2 percent of the state total. A-6 b. The timing of this new construction indicates a trend t oward greater suburban development over time; average square footage constructed in both the West Say and Kent County has increased in more recent years, in contrast with the dominant trends -- on' the state'leve'l ahdtfor the.Urban Center -- of greater construction occurring in the late 1960's compared to the 1970's. c. New construction in the central portion was concentrated essentially in the same industries as for the state as a whole, namely instruments, fabricated metals, etc.; other industries also represented included chemicals and printing firms. B. Profile of Industrial.Parks 1. Existing Rhode Island industrial parks contain approximately 1,900 acres, of which 1,100 or approximately 60 percent are available for new development. 2. Within the central portion of the state -- primarily Kent County and Urban Center -- there is a total of more than,1,000 industrial park acres, of which morethan 600 would be available for new development. 3. Outside of the central portion, the major industrial park area is the North-Northwest subarea; by@comparisonl,' there is very little indus--_ trial park land available in Bristol County, East Bay or Southwest Rhode Island. 4. Land designated as' industrial "areas" follows a similar pattern as formally organized industrial parks; throughout the state there are more than 5,000 acres earmarked for eventual industrial use; approxi- mately 60 percent or 3,000 of these acres are located in the central portion of the state; most of this central portion acreage is located in West Bay communities with considerable acreage also available in Kent County. C. Market Outlook for Quonset Point/Davisville 1. Summary of Harbridge House findings (contained in report entitled Industrial and Commercial Marketability of Surplus Properties in Rhode island, April, 1976). a. The primary purpose of this report was to develop a marketing strategy to assist the state in its attempts to restructure the economy. b. Particular emphasis was placed on high employment growth industries which tended to be labor intensive and utilize a skilled labor force. 1) A "targeting"'-proceiss ide'n'tffie'd the'followin 'fqur-dijit- SIC industries: biological products, medicinal c@ emicals, phar- maceuticals, small and medium turbines, two-way communications, medical electronics, technical instruments, and dental equip- ment. A-7 2) Additionally, Harbridge House identified other potentially attractive targets for DED's marketing effort; these were based on such criteria as industries underrepresented in Rhode Island but growing in New England, additional high employment growth industries, etc.; included here were: electrical machinery, printing and publishing, rubber and plastics, machinery, fabricated metals, chemicals, and glass and stone. c. Forecast of Quonset Point/Davisville Absorption 1) A total of eight years was forecast for absorption of the entire site; uses include primarily manufacturing but also substantial amounts of warehousing and office,-with dead storage slated for the Flightpath and Dogpatch areas. 2) This forecast appears generally optimistic and presumes t 'hat the state's marketing efforts are quite successful; specifically, assuming the state's total industrial construction in the imme- diate future is somewhat comparable to the recent past, then the implied.capture at this site approaches 100 percent of the total development expected in the central portion of the state during the next eight years. D. Gladstone Associat6s' Outlook 1. We would normally expect that the amount of new industrial construc- tion would be approximately the same in the future as it has been in the recent past, barring fundamental changes -- presently unfore- seen -- in the state and regional economy; if the marketing effort currently underway is moderately successful, then new construction should exceed. past trends. 2. Quonset Poi.nt/,Davisville Capture a. The site is potentially attractive for industrial uses; indeed, industrial redevelopment would be the most compatible with con- t-inuing activities of the former Navy base i.e., Electric Boat and the CBC Active Use Area. b. Although the West Bay area has captured only a small portion of past industrial activity, there-are.several;-reasons'why'.this competitive situation woul-d likely change. 1) In the past, West Bay communities lacked necessary sewer facilities; in the future, these facilities will be provided, and specifically there are definite plans to build needed sewer capacity on-site at Quonset Point/Davisville. 2) In the past, suitably priced land was available in closer-in suburban and urban areas with better access to local and regional markets; in the future, this land availability will likely diminish in the Urban Center and Kent County; conversely, the trend toward suburban locations for new industry-Mill likely continue in the West Bay and Quonset Point/Davisville will accord- ingly be quite--attractivLi. A_R 3. Summary Conclusions a. An absorption period of 20 years is forecast for industrial uses at Quonset Point/Davisville; this reflects essentially the same parcels being available as assumed in the Harbridge House report and as have been allocated during the master plan- ning process; specifically, this includes approximately 600 acres which -- at an FAR of 0.2 translates into approximately 5.22 million square feet of industrial floor space; this implies a capture of approximately 20 to 25 percent of new industrial construction in the central portion of the state, assuming that roughly a continuation of past trends occurs. VI. Retail Market Conditions A. Sales Trends 1. Between 1968 and 1972, retail sales -- calculated from sales tax information -- increased by an average of 11 percent annually in the West Bay and 9.6 percent in Kent County. With the Navy depar- tUre, retail sales in the 1972-1975 period grew by only 0.8 percent per year in the West Bay and actually declined severely in Kent County by 7.6--percent per annum. 2. A longer term trend -- based on the U.S. Census of Business -- for the West Bay indicates that sales increased by more than $5 million per year-between 1963,an'd 1967'and by more than-$11.6'millioh in 1967-1972; this growth was well distributed among all-major retail categories and reflects healthy population growth and consequent shopping center development that occurred prior to the Navy departure. 3. In Kent County, growth rates ranging from 7.8 percent tA 8 8 percent per year were experienced for 1963-1967 and 1967-1972 resp;ctively; notably, dramatic increases in comparison goods sales are evident, primarily resulting from the development of two major regional malls in Warwick. B. Inventory of Market Area Shopping Centers 1. A survey of 16 shopping centers in the West Bay and Kent County was undertaken; these range in size from neighborhood centers of approxi- mately 60,000 square feet up to regional facilities such as Warwick Mall containing I million square feet; in all, an inventory of slightly less than 2.9 million square feet of retail space was identified. 2. Noticeable vacancies wereappareint in Kingston Plaza-Sh6pping Cente@'-!- on Post Road near the former Navy ba'se -- indluding 36,000 square feet in the former Grant's Store and a number of other vacant shops. A-9 3. Other vacancies were noted at Airport Plaza in Warwick -- with 20,000 square feet available -- the Governor Frances Shopping Center also in Warwick and in Coventry Plaza. C. Retail Market Outlook 1. Summary of Hammer, Siler,@George Associates' findings (contained in report entitled Commercial Impact AnalXsis, Post Road Corridor, North Kingstown, Rhode Island, dated August 1975) a. The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of the Navy departure on commercial facilities in the Post Road corridor; a secondary purpose was to identify potential sources of funds to assist adversely affected local businesses. b. A key finding was that new retail space could not likely be developed in this area until at least after 1980, thereby taking account of the need for market area purchasing power to grow sufficiently to support the absorption of substantial vacant space before*. new-sp6ce would be-@supportable. 2. Outlook for Quonset Point/Davisville a. Site Evaluation 1) The physical configuration with respect to highway access and frontage on Post Road tends to preclude the possibility of a regional -- 300,000 square feet or more -- shopping center. 2) The well-established malls in Warwick will likely meet the regional shopping center needs of the West Bay and Kent County in the foreseeable future. 3) Even if sufficient market support emerged for another regional center, it would appear that better competitive sites would be available. 4) As a maximum, the site would be co nsidered adequate for a com- munity-sized shopping center -- up to approximately 250,000 square feet -- to be developed in phases over a long term. b. Summary Conclusions 1) Based on Hammer, Siler, George Associates' study and the likely build-up of market area purchasing power, new shopping center construction does not appear supportable before 1985. 2) Over the longer term, a community center of 250,000 square feet might be developed in two phases -- of approximately 150,000 and 100,000 square feet respectively -- which take account of 11critical mass" and the build up of purchasing power and poten- tial sales over time. A-10 3) In terms of the types of stores anticipated, the entire project might consist of one-fourth convenience goods space food, drug, eating and drinking, etc. -- and three-fourths comparison goods outlets general merchandise, apparel, furniture, etc. VII. Office Market Conditions A. Past Trends 1. Virtually all existing Class A office space in Rhode Island is located in downtown Providence; as of 1975, there was a total of slightly more than 1.7 million square feet in the city, of which nearly 250,000 or 14 percent was available for lease. 2. The suburban office market in Rhode Island is extremely.weak; it is limited to a few major buildings such as the Allendale Insurance and Metropolitan Life projects; significantly, there is no specula- tive guburban office development of any size. B. Outlook for Quonset Point/Davisville 1. Site Evaluation a. Because of continuing Navy uses and likely intense future industrial development, "prestige suburban" office space would have to be carefully sited on the former Navy base; on balance, the probability that the Quonset Point/Davisville facility would capture such office space appears somewhat remote. b. Because of the amenities offered by the golf course and the airport, the development of "industrial office" facilities characterized as low rise buildings with large open areas appears a more realistic office use for the property. 2. Summary Conclusions a. Although definitive market forecasts for office space are not possible, high quality sites should be reserved for office uses in the event that major office tenants emerge over the long term; specifically, this is reflected in the office park designated for Ahe area adjacent to the golf course. b. If such tenants do not materialize, then the site can be marketed for other industrial uses once previously available sites on the property are absorbed. VIII. Hotel Market Conditions A. Past Trends 1. Simi lar to office space, the market for hotel facilities tends to be weak in outlying -- i.e., away from Providence -- areas. A-11 2. This basic market weakness is evident in considering the components of hotel demand, which include tourism, convention/business meetings, and business visitors. B. Outlook for Quonset Point/Davisville 1. The site is not ideally configured for hotel use; normally, hotel sites require frontage on and visibility and access from major roads; designation of hotel use in the interior of the site -- on Roger Williams Way near the golf course -- is therefore less than ideal., 2. Summary Conclusions a. Two reports by Hammer, Siler, George Associates (Market Analysis, Resort Hotel Potentials, Prudence Island Surplus Property, and Rhode Island Visitors Survey) indicate extremely limited hotel market support from tourism and conventions in the West Bay and for Quonset Point/Davisville. b. Market support is therefore limited to the amount of business visitation that might be generated by new on-site industrial uses; a modest sized facility would likely capture virtually all of this demand. c. In total, approximately 100 to 150 rooms might be built, taking account of the likely minimum size for hotel projects. IX. Marina Use A. Past Trends 1. Demand for marina facilities is quite strong throughout Rhode Island and in the West Bay subareas. 2. Current supply of marina space is insufficient to meet expected growth in.demand. B. Outlook for Marina Uses 1. Summary of report by the Urban Design Group and Economics Research Associates (entitled Marinas and Pleasure Boating Facilities Studies, October 1975). a. This study was an evaluat-ion of overall market demand for marina facilities as well as an examination of 30 possible sites for marina development. b. 'At Davisville, tWo,sites were,ddemed-accL'ptable for mar'ina-@'- facilities in the -A11 en-Jiarbor-area and market supports were' readily identified. A-12 2. Summary Conclusions a. A 200 slip marina has been included in the development program for Allen Harbor and the market supports identified above indicate that this is an achievable development objective. b. In terms of the site, the only concern woul,d be some planning to buffer the marina from potential industrial uses of the Davisville pier area. A-13 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS low too so, so Aft, a* No AVERAGE COVERED EMPLOYMENT 11 RHODE ISLAND BY INDUSTRY 1970-1975 Average Annual Change INDUSTRY 1976-197 1 19 72-1975 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Amount Percent Amunt Percent TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES 264,554 261,162 297.390 3D6,310 307,022 289.899 -3,392 -1.3% -2,497 -0.9% AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHERIES 1,456 1,479 1,698 1,812 1.862 1,801 23 1.6% 2.0% 01 Agricultural production . 472 444 432 493 563 499 - 28 -5.9% 2i 5.2% 07 Agricultural services & hunting A trapping 874 899 981 1,016 977 972 25 2.9% 5 -0.5% 08 Forestry 3 3 2 2 2 1 0.0% 09 Fisheries 107 133 276 301 320 329 26 24.3% 18 6.4% MINING 128 123 136 131 98 129 5 -3.9% 2 -1.7% 4h- 13 Crude Petroleum A Natural Gas 1 1 2 9 10 8 2 100.0% 14 Mining & quarrying of nonmetallic minerals. except fuels 127 122 134 122 88 121 - 5 -3.9% - 4 -3.2% CONTRACT CONSTR)CTION 14,797 14,347 15,083 14,705 13,274 11.548 - 450 -3.0% -1,178 -7.8% 15 Building construction - general contractors 5,759 5.447 5,741 5,497 4,975 3,591 - 312 -5.4% - 717 -12.6% 16 General contractors other than building constr. 2.086 1,955 1,987 1,749 1,414 1,208 - 131 -6.3% - 260 -13.1% 17 Special trade contractors - construction 6,952 6,945 7v355 7,459 6,885 6,749 - 7 -0.1% - 202 -2.8% I Average of all twelve months. y ry, educational or certain Since January 1. 1972. most non-profit organizations formed and operated for religious. charitable. scientific,litera other purposes are covered. Source: R.I. Department of Employment Security; Gladstone Associates. so, "0 Sol AVERAGE COVERED EMPLOYMENT (Cont'd.) RHODE ISLAND BY INDUSTRY 1970-1975 Average Annual Chan @ ?97?-1975 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Amount Per Amount PercenT KANUFACTURING 120,169 114,242 119.213 124.012 125,057 113,155 -5,927 . 5.2% -2.019 - 1.7% 19 Ordnance A accessories 6 6 4 6 2 0 - 4 - 33.3% 20 Food & kindred products 4,813 4,S22 4.575 4,225 4.167 3.661 - 291 - 6.0% - 305 - 6.7% 21 Tobacco manufacturers - - - - - 22 Textile mill products 18,183 17,288 77.419 16.834 14,980 11,896 - 895 - 4.9% -1,841 - 10.6% 23 Apparel & other finished products made from - 0.1% 20 0.6% fabrics A simi Jar materials 3,492 3.488 3,445 3,487 3,376 3.505 - 4 24 Lumber & wood products, except furniture 424 409 405 490 501 383 - 15 - 3.5% - I . 1.8% 25 Furniture & fixtures 898 833 886 937 922 937 - 65 - 7.2% 17 1.9% 26 paper A allied products 2f794 2,688 2,856 2,874 2,890 2,571 - 106 - 3.8% - 95 - 3.3% 27 Printing. publishing & allied industries 4,701 4.743 4,623 4.770 4,863 4,683 42 0.9% 20 0.4% 4.n 28 Chemicals & allied products 2.567 2,620 2,724 2.820 2,894 -2.768 53 2.1% 15 0.5% 29 Petroleum refining A related industries 79 85 93 114 113 17 6 7.6% . 25 - 27.2% 30 Rubber & miscellaneous plastics products 8,223 8,?28 8.552 8.470 8,796 7.233 5 0.1% - 440 - 5.1% 31 Leather & leather products 2,219 2,161 2,283 2,805 2,788 2,409 - 58 - 2.6% 42 1.8% 32 Stone. clay. glass, & concrete products 2,485 2,454 2,530 2.658 2,731 2,443 - 31 - 1.2% - 29 - 1.1% 33 Primary metal industries 7,962 7,224 7,287 7,727 7,984 6,794 - 738 - 9.3% - 164 - Z.3% 34 Fabricated metal products, except ordnance, machinery and trans. equipment 10.251 9.595 9,600 9.827 10,023 8.833 - 656 - 6.4% - 256 - 2.7% 35 Machinery except electrical 10,419 8,715 9,196 10,454 11,535 8,803 -1,704 - 16.4% - 131 - 1.4% 36 Electrical Machinery equip., & supplies 9,677 8.848 9,555 9,931 9,522 8,201 - 829 - 8.6% - 451 - 4.7% 37 Transportation equipment 1,504 1,564 1.746 1.836 2,290 3,639 60 4.0% 631 36.1% 38 Prof., scientific A controlling instm.; photo & optical; watches J& clocks 4,883 4,349 4,854 5,363 5.382 4,429 - 534 - 10.9% - 142 - 2.9% 39 Misc. Mfg. Indus.; Jewelry. silverware. other 24,589 24,422 26,580 28,384 29,298 29.951 - 167 - 0.7% 1,124 4.2% Source: R. 1. Department of Employment Security; Glads tone Associates. 10) 80) Ot go-, 00, .00 AVERAGE COVERED EMPLOYMENT tContd.) R140DE ISLAND BY INDUSTRY 1970-1975 Average Annual Chan 0 ?172-105 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 197S Amount Pe Amount FerFint TRMSPORTATION. ODMMUNICATION. ELECrRIC GAS Mo SANITARY SERVICES 14,949 14,707 74.745 14,708 13.990 13,101 - 248 - 1.7% 548 3.7% 41 Local, suburban. & interurban passenger trans. 1.581 1.438 1.433 1,399 1,346 1.236 - 143 - 9.0% 66 4.6% 42 Motor freight trans. & warehousing 4,771 4,659 4,585 4,634 4,239 3.877 - 112 - 2.3% 236 5.1% 44 Water transportation 410 468 531 489 458 369 58 14.1% 54 - 10.2% 45 Transportation by air 308 283 291 319 262 330 - 25 - 8.1% 13 C5% 46 Pipe line transportation 1 1 5 1 1 0 2 - 3.3%' 47 Transportation services 316 325 371 413 445 408 9 2.8% 12 3.3% 48 Communi cation 4,382 4.359 4,373 4,301 4,179 3,985 - 23 - 0.5% - 129 - 3.0% 49 Electric. gas, & sanitary services 3,180 3.166 3,156 3,152 3,060 2,896 . 12 - 0.4% - 87 - 2.7% WHOLESALE A RETAIL TRADE 68,482 70,910 74,563 75.670 74.766 71,366 2,428 3.5% -1.066 - 1.4% cn 50 Wholesale trade 15,608 15,725 16,516 16,857 161988@ 15,38D 117 0.7% - 379 - 2.3% 52 Bldg. materials. hdwr. , & farm equip. dealers 1.857 1,955 2,043 2.094 2.037 1,789. 98 5.3% - 85 - 4.1% 53 Retail trade-general merchandise 12,158 12,274 12.340 11,488 10.362 9,203 116 1.0% -1.046 - 8.5% 54 Food stores 7,565 8,694 9,624 9.150 9,238 9.165 1.129 14.9% - 153 - 1.6% 55 Automotive dealers A gasoline service stations 6,532 6,697 7,179 7.392 6.893 6.489 169 2.9% - 230 - 3.2% 56 Apparel A accessory stores 3,551 3,753 3,67S 3,683 3.551 3,284 202 5.7% - 130 - 3.5% 57 Furniture, home furnishings, equip. stores 1,881 1,876 2,062 2.065 1,985 1,968 5 - 0.3% - 31 - 1.5% 58 Eating A drinking places 12,028 12,440 13,181 14,827 15,648 15,699 412 - 3.4% 839 6.4% 59 Miscellaneous retail stores 7,302 7.496 7,943 8,114 8,064 8,389 194 2.7% 149 1.9%, -Source: R. 1. Department of Employment Security: Gladstone Associates. 22 011 AVERAGE COVERED EMPLOYMENT (Cont'd.) RHODE ISLAND BY INDUSTRY 1970-1975 Average Annual Chan ---Tvlr-Tm ?1�172-1975 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Amount Percent Amount Percent FIRMCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE 15,689 15,947 17,396 17.966 17,925 258 1.6% 360 @.I% 60 Banking 4,867 4,964 5,272 5,642 51979 6,003 97 2.0% 244 4.6% 6T Credit agencies other than banks 1,547 11515 1.596 1.649 1,645 1,577 . 32 - 2.1% 6. - 0.4% 62 Security & commodity brokers. dealers exhchanges, 4 services 486 446 465 440 373 363 - 39 - 8.0% 34 - 7.3% 63 Insurance carriers 4,872 6,132 5,602 5,732 6,08D 6,131 260 5.3% 176 3.1% 64 Insurance agents, brokers,.& services 1,634 1,517 1,378 1,411 1,462 1,428 - 117 - 7.2% 17 1.2% 65 Real Estate 1,897 1,964 2,123 2,12- 2,084 2,102 67 3.5% 7 - 0.3% 66 conbined real estate, Ins., loans. law offices 287 282 272 266 242 228 - 5 - 13% Is - 51.4% 67 Holding S other investment companies 100 127 137 127 101 94 27 27.0% 14 - 10.5% SERVICE INDUSTRIES 28.884 29.413 55,107?f 57,876 60,009 60,874- 529 1.8% 1.922 3.5% 70 Hotels. rooming houses. camps, 6 other lodging places 1.619 1,670 1,844 7,793 11810 1,491 51 118 - 6.4% 72 Personal services 4,735 4,436 4,329 4,211 3,857 3.760 - 299 - 6.3% - 190 - 4.4% 73 Miscellaneous business services 6,242 6,121 6.746 7,933 8,289 8,032 - 121 - le% 429 6.4% 75 Auto repair, auto services. & garages 1,729 1,872 1,994 2,065 2,027 1,971 143 8.3% - a - 0.4% 76 Miscellaneous repair services 837 865 871 883 907 927 28 3.3% 19 2.1% 78 Motion Pictures 454 445 477 531 463 476 - 9 - 2.0% -- 0.1% 79 Amusement & recreation services. except motion pictures 2.717 2,683 2,955 2,921 3,121 2,793 - 34 - 1.3% - 54 - 1.8% 8D Medical A other health services 5,240 5,867 20.548 21,619 22.625 24.178 627 12.0% 1.210 5.9% 81 Legal services 845 900 1,007 1.087 1.140 1,250 55 6.5% 81 8.0% 82 Educational services 718 723 6,372 6,475 6.683 6,522 5 0.7% 50 0.8% 84 Museums. art galleries. botanical & zoological gardens 9 10 30 30 22 44 1 11.1% 5 15.6% 86 Nonprofit membership organizations 1,864 5.6a3 5,872 6,527 7,239 140 7.5% 519 9.1% 88 Private households 8 11 14 10 15 21 3 37.5% 2 16.7% 09 Miscellaneous services 1,867 1,806 2.237 2,446 2,523 2,171 61 - 3.3% 22 1.0% Since January 1. 1972 most wn-profft organizations formed and operated for religious, charitable. scientific, literary, educational. or certain other purposes are covered. Source: R.I. Department of Employment Security; Gladstone Associates. u 4p- "00,000 492000000 ew Eng land 1960 1465 1970 400,000, 3SO,000 30CkOOO Rhode Island 25%W0wff--- = Ir 0 a 1960 1965 1970 RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND total employment 1960 -1973 Source:- Employment -and Earnings, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Gladstone Associates. A-1 8 1,700,000 11500,000 New England 1,300,000 1960 1965 1970 1301P000 120,000 110,000 IA Rhode Island 100,000-1 O'w%;70 5 1960 1965 RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND manufacturing employment 1960 -.1973 Source: EmplMent and Earnings, U.S. Bure-au--of Labor Statfstics; Gladstone Associates. A-19 41"MR00 New England %OOOJDOO 1960 1;65 a 19070 240,000 210,000 IM000 Rhode Island 159000t.@@_ 0 - 11@1 1960 1975 RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND non- manufacturing employment 1960-1973 on Source:-- Employment __ and Earnings, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Gladstone Associates. A-9n 00 M, 'M ow *0 so so 'M '40 'am '00, low, EMPLOYMENT TRENDS RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND 1960-1973 .1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Rhode Island Total Employment 291,700 291,600 298,300 298,100 303.900 316,700 330,000 Manufacturing Employment 119,700 116,800 118,900 115,500 116,000 121,300 127,600 Nonmanufacturing Employment 172,000 174,800 179,400 182,600 187,900 195,400 202.400 New England Total Employment 3,703,100 3,721,500 3,797,900 3,818,200 3.870,400 4,006,000 4,205,800 Manufacturing Employment 1,451,700 1,428,200 1,453,300 1,423-400 1.411.200 1,459.700 1.549,400 Nonmanufacturing Employment 2,251,400 2.2.93,300 2.344,600 2,394:800 2,459,200 2,546,300 2,656,400 .Rhode Island's Share of New England Employment: Total Employment 7.9% 7.8% 7.9% 7.8% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% Manufacturing Employment 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 8.2% 8.3% 8.2% Nonmanufacturing Employment 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.74 7.7% 7.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of.Labor Statistics. EMP19)Mnt and Earnings; Gladstone Associates. C;@ V, M 'am so 60 Sol 'M' 'am'. 'W EMPLOYMENT TRENDS (CONTD) RHODE ISLAND ANO NEW ENGLAND 1960-1973 Average Annual Chanqe 1960-1973 1967 1968 1969 1971-1/ 1972 1973 Number Perci7n-t Rhode Island Total Employment 338.300 343,000 343,400. 341,300 356.000 362,300 5.430 1.9% Manufacturing Employment 127.400 127,400 127,100 114,600 119,500 124.100 340 0.3% Nommanufacturing Employment 210,900 215,600 216,300 226,700 236,500 238,200 5,090 3.0% New England Total Employment 4,329,100 4,422,200 4,S11,200 4,492,000 4.607,100 4.753.400 80,790 2.2% Manufacturing.Employment 1,564.700 1,553,000 1,534,200 1.342,300 1,352,400 1,405,900 -3.520 -0.2% Nonmanufacturing Employment 2,764,400 2,869,200 2,977,000 3,149,700 3,255,700 3,347,500 84,310 3.7% Rhode Island's Share of New England Employment: Total Employment 7.8% 7.8% 7.6% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% Manufacturing Employment 8.1% 8.2% 8.3% 8.5% 8.8% 8.8% Nonmanufacturing Employment 7.6% 7.5% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Y Comparable data not available in 1970. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings Gladstone Associates. 4M so, go 'go 'MI M M 'In 'on- M M so so M M AVERAGE ANNUAL COVERED EMPLOYMENT R40DE fSLAND BY SWAREA 1970-1975 Average Annual Chan" Map 1970-1 971 1972-1975 Key Subarea z 1970 1971 197L3j 1973 1974 1975 N @unt Percent Amount Perc-e-nT I West Say 6,732 6,518 7,616 8,540 9,245 10.097 - 214 -3.2% 827 10.9% 2 Kent Cointy 26.838 27.027 29,679 31,978 33,495 32,033 189 0.7% 785 2.6% 3 Urban Center 164,289 161,811 185,510 188,917 @.188,094 181,677 -2,478 -1.5% -1,311 - 0.7% 4 North-Northwest R.I. 27,982 27,066 30,563 31,46. 31,023 28,839 - 916 -3.3% 575 1.9% 5 Briml County 8,327 7.751 8,346 8,828 8,999 8.716 - 576 -6.9% 123 1.5% 6 East Bay 10,912 10,591 11,358 11,446 11,417 11.621 - 321 -2.9% 88 0.8% 7 Southwest R.I. 5,335 5.2S6 6,046 6,491 S.974 5 ' 866 - 79 -l-.5% 60 - 1.0% Statewide* 16,454 17,851 21,457 21,503 20,546 14.405 1,397 8.5% -2.351 - 12.0% Total Z/ 266,864 263,866 300,570 309,157 308.791 293,145 -2,998 -1.1% -2.475 - 0.8% Y Average of months of March, June, September. and December. 21 Subarea sum may not equal total due to rounding. Since January 1. 1972 most @on-profit organizations formed and.operated for religious. charitable, scientific, literary. educational, or certain other purposes are covered. 4 Pefers to persons performing services cross town or out of state. ur,ce: R.I. Department of Employment !iecurlty; Gladstone Associates. AVERAGE ANNUAL COVERED MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FMODE ISLAND BY SUBAREA 1970-1975 Average Annual-Chan?e IVIU-1911 � 72-1975 Key Subarea 1970 1971 1972Y 1973 1974 1975 Amount Per-c-enT Amount Percent I West Say 2,431 2,036 2,160 2.510 3,371 4.203 395 - 16.2% 681 31.5% 2 Kent County 13,572 12,600 13,1SO 14,124 14,750 12,44S 972 - 7.2% 235 - 1.8% 3 Urban Center 77,323 75,315 79,319 61,198 81,145 75,110 -2.D08 - 2.6% -1.403 - 1.8% 4 Worth-Northwest R.I. IS,034 13.793 14V437 15,071 14,236 11.988 -1,241 - 8.3% - 816 - 5.1% 5 Bristol County 5.642 4.903 S '6160 5.492 5.584 5,208 - 739 - 13.1% 16 0.3% 6 last Bay 2.867 2.875 3,111 2,961 3.015 2,814 8 0.3% . 99 - 3.2% 7 Southwest R.I. 2,693 2,541 2,560 2.641 2.197 1.995 - 152 - 5.7% - 188 - 7.4% Statewide* 997 1,240 1.034 1,108 1,111 952 243 24.4% - 27 - 2.6% Totaly 120,562 115,309 120,926 125,102 125.403 114,715 -5,253 - 4.4% -2.070 - 1.7% Subarea sups may not equal totals due to rounding and due to some nondisclosure in 1970. 1971. Since January 1. 1972. most Pon-profit organizations fonned and operated for religious. charitable. scientific, literary. educational, or certain other purposes are covered. Refers to persons perfoming services crosstown or out of state. Soume: R.I. Department of Employment Security; Gladstone Associates. AVERAGE ANNUAL COVERED NONMANUFACrURING EMPLOYMENT RHODE ISLAND BY SUBAREA 1970-1975 A map 1970- 95!rage Annual Pan& Key Subarea 1970 1971 1972_2/ 1973 1974 197S Amount Per XWu-nt Percent 1 West Bay 4,3D) 4.,482 S,4S6 6,030 5,874 5,894 181 4.2% 146 2.7% 2 Kent County 13,266 14.427 16,529 17,8S4 18,745 19.588 1.161 8.8% 1,020 6.2% 3 Man Center, 96,966 86,496 106,191 107,719 106,949 106,467 470 -5.4% 92 0.1% 4 North-Northwest R.I. 12,948 13,273 16.126 16,390 16.787 16,851 325 2.5% 242 1.5% 5 Bristol County 2.685 2,848 3,le6 3,336 3.415 3,508 160 6.1%. 107 3.4% r13 Ln 6 East Bay 8,045 7.716 8,247 8,485 8,402 8,807 329 -4.1% 187 2.3% 7 Southwest R.I. 2.642 2,715 3,486 3,850 3,777 3.871 73 2.8% 128 3.7% Statewide* 15,457 16,611 20,423 20,395 19,435 13.453 1.IS4 7.5% -2.323 -11.4% Totaly 146,302 148.557 179,644 184.055 183,388 178.430 2,255 1.5% - 405 2.0% Subarea sun may not equal totals due to rounding and due to nondisclosure for some towns In 1970. 1971. Since January 1. 1972, most non-profit arqanizations formed and operated for religious. charitable. scientific. literary. educational, or certain other purposes are covered. Refers to persons perforiMng seMces crosstown or out of state. Source: R.I. Oepartment of Employment Security; Gladstone Associates. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL COVERED EMPLOYMENT STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1970-1975 Map 1970- Subarea 1970 1971 -1972 1973 1974 1975 1975 1 West Bay 36.1% 31.2% 28.4% 29.4% 36.5% 41.6% 34.3% 2 Kent County 50.6% 46.6% 44.3% 44.2% 44.0% 38.9% 44.6% 3 Urban Center 47.1% 46.5% 42.80/0 43.0% 43.1% 41.4% 43.9% 4 North-Northwest R.I. 53.7% 51.0% 47.2% 47.9% 45.9% 41.6% 47.8% 5 Bristol County 67.8% 63.3% 61.8% 62.2% 62.1% 59.8% 62.8% 6 East Bay 26.3% 27.1% 27.4% 25.9% 26.4% 24.2% 26.2% 7 Southwest R.I. 50.5% 48.3% 42.3% 40.7% 36.8% 34 .0% 41.8% *Statewide 6.1% 6.9% 4.8% 5.2% 5.4% 6.6% 5.7% State Total 45.2% 43.7% 40.2% 40.5% 40.6% 39.1% 41.4% Refers to persons performing services crosstown or out of state. Source: Rhode Island Department of Employment Security; Gladstone Associates. 'N A-26 BACKGROUND DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS - Population - Households, - Personal Income POPULATION TRENDS RHODE ISLAND BY SUBAREA 1960-1974 Average Annua Change Ijap 1960-1970 1970-1974 1jej Subarea 1960 1970 1974 Number Percent Number PerceF_t I West Bay 39,414 60,489 56,300 2,108 5.3% -1,047 -1.7% 12 Kent County 112,619 14.2,38.2 150,700 2,976 2.6% 2,079 1.5% 3 Urban Center 452,458 443,144 437,900 -931 -0.2% -1,311 -0.3% 4 North-Northwest 116,320 138,326 146,400 2,200 1.9% 2,018 1.5% 15 Bristol County 37,146 45,937 4 5,800 879 2.4% -34 -0.1% 6 East Bay 7 9,138 91,317 72,800 1,218 1.5% -4,629 -5.1% 7 Southwestern R. 1. 22,393 28,128 30,400 574 2.6% 568 -2.0% 1 Total 859,488 949,7 23 940,300 9,024 1.0% -2,356 -0.2% ource: U.S. Census 1960, 1970; R.I. Statewide Planning Program; Gladstone Associates. AIR A-27 12,000,000 11,000,000 IA0001000 9,000,000, Ne.w.-England 1960 1965 1070 950,000 850M00 Rhode Island 750,000 - -.. , - v iW50 1960 1970 RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND population trends 1950-1973 A-28 POPULATION TREWS RHODE ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND 1950-1973 Average Annual Change 1973 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1973 1�50-1973 1950 1960 1970 Estimate Number PeFc-ent Number Per Number Percent Nu.mber Percent Rhode Island 791,900 859,500 949,700 967.360 6,760 0.9% 9,020 1 .06p, 5,870 0.6% 7.630 1.0% 10,509,400 11,847 .200 12,144,600 179.490 1.3% 99,130 0.8%' 123.050 1.3% New England 9,314,500 1.3% 133,780 Rhode Island's Share of New England Population 8.5% 8.2% 8.0% 8.0% Source: U.S. Census of Population 1950, 1960, 1970; Department of Commerce P-25 Series 1973. Gladstone Associates. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE qUONSET-DAVISVILLE MARKET AREA 1970-1974 Total Net Natural Increase- Implied Population We--t Net Change Births Deaths Chanoe Micration West Bay North Kingstown -10,290. 2,310 540 1,770 -12,060 South Kingstown 3,090 800 500 300 2,790 Exeter 560 240 90 150 410 Narragansett 1,860 620 230 390 1,470 Jamestown 590 160 140 20 570 New Shoreham 10 30 50 -20 30 Subtotal -4,180 4,160 li550 2,610 -6,790 Kent County East Greenwich 820 590 320 270 550 West Greenwich 460 100 60 40 420 Coventry 2,250 1,640 650 990 1,260 Warwick 3,710 4,270 3,160 1,110 2.600 C) West Warwick 11080 1,820 950 870 210 Subtotal 8,320 8,420 5,140 3,280 5,040 Urban Center Providence -10,120 10,940 9,410 1,530 -11,650 East'Providence 1,990 2,660 1,960 700 .1,290 North Providence 1,960 1,290 810 480 1,480 Pawtucket -2,480 4,670 3,880 790 -3,270 Central Falls -720 1,350 1,040 310 -1,030 Cranston 2,210 3,340 2.750 590 1,620 Johnston 1,360 1,040 650 -390 970 Subtotal -51800 25,290 20,500 4,790 -10,590 Central Portion Total -1,660 37,870 27,190 10,680 -12,340 Source: U.S. Census of Population; Report on IVital Statistics, R.I. Department of Health; R.I. Statewide Planning Program; Gladstone Associates. HOUSEHOLD FORMATION TRENDS RHODE ISLAND BY SUBAREA 1960-1970 Map Households Average Annual Change Key Subarea 1960 .1970 Number Percent 1. West Bay 10,037 14,316 428 4.3% 2 Kent County 32,352 42,702 1,035 3.2% 3 Urban Center 142,642 147,409 477 -0.3% 4 North-Norihwest 35,298 42,34,5 705 2.0% 5 Bristol County 10,677 13,234 256 2.4% 6 East Bay 19,498 23,322 382 2.0% 7 Southwestern R.I. 6,831 8,637 180 .2.6% Total 257,335 291,965 3,463 1.3% Source: U.S. Census. of Population 1960, 1970; Gladstone Associates. A-31 RENDS IN MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME RHODE ISLAND BY SUBAREA 1959-1969 Map Media n Family Incomel/ Average Annual Change Key Subarea 1959 1969 Amount Percent 1 West Bay $ 9,644 $13,865 $ 422 4.4% 2 Kent County $11,136 $15,716 $ 458 4.1% 3 Urban Center $10,139 $13,700 $ 356 3.5% 4 North-Northwest $10,339 $14,715 $ 438 4.2% 5 Bristol County $11,391 $15,881 $ 450 4.0% 6 East Bay $ 9,216 $13,446 $ 423 4.6% 7 Southwestern R.I. $11,395 $14,492 $ 310 2.7% State Average $10,298 $14,287 $,399 3.9% I/ Expressed in 1975 Constant Dollars. Source: U.S. Census 1960, 1970; Gladstone Associates. X A-32 INDUSTRIAL MARKET CONDITIONS Construction Trends Profile of Industrial Parks Market Outlook INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS (In Square Feet) RHODE ISLAND BY SUBAREA 1966-1975 Map Ten Key Subarea 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Year Totals I West Bay 18.925 1.800. 27,540 39,640 12,000 8,000 97.300 7.500 11,400 224,105 2 Kent County 392,873 194,800 285,228 323.816 454,728 329.261 761,039 394.312 253.036 34.865 3,423,958 3 Urban Center 658,686 803,057 559,546 715,702 372,195 402,935 322,126 590,748 436.289 193,800 5,055,084 4 North-Northwest R.I. 414,577 137,500 250.576 126,262 112.090 311,540 487,334 591,210 198,220 144.308 2,773,617 5 Bristol County 90,800 100,000 39,000 26.400 7,084 '28,958 7,300 20,000 61,459 33,780 414,781 6 East Bay 520,00.0 73,600 12,960 48,196 - 18,000 5,400 29.500 500 66,000 774,156 7 Southwest R.I. 53,840 27,000 5,088 52,500 480 21,803 1,850 42,135 16j316 1.144 222,156 Total 2,149,701 1.337.757 1,179.938 1,332,516 958.577 1.120,497 1,585,049 1,765,205 973.320 485,297 12,887,857 Source: Rhode Island Development Council Report; Gladstone Associates. AVERAGE ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION RHODE ISLAND BY SIC, (NEW FLOOR SPACE IN 1, 000's OF SQUARE FEET) 1966-1975 SIC Ten Year Code Industry 1966-1970 1971-1975 Average 20 Food 25-.8 32.7 29.2 22 Textiles 103.7 61.7 82.7 23 Apparel 36.0 80.6 58.3 24 Wood Products 22.8 3.7 13.3 25 Furniture 20.6 11.1 15.8 26 Paper U-7 10.1 12.4 27 Printing 79.5 34.0 56.7 28 Chemicals 70.4 52.6 61.5 29 Petroleum 0 .0 0.0 0.0 301-6 Rubber Products 56.0 5.9 31.0 307 Plastics 18.2 46.2 32.2 31 Leather 23.3 2.0 12.6 32 Stone, Glass 78.2 21.0 49.6 33 Primary Metals 151.3 27.4 89.3 33 Fab. Metals 168.3 122.6 M5.5 35 Machinery 107.3 47.0 77.1 36 Electrical Machinery 137.3 119.3 128.3 37 Transportation Equip. 18.0 55.5 36.8 38 Instruments 41.6 196.2 118.9 39 Miscellaneous 202.0 180.4 191.2 Unclassified 16.7 76.1 46.4 TOTAL 1,391.7 1,185.9 1,288.8 jJ Includes jewelry and silverware. V Totals may differ from sums slightly due to rounding. Source: Gladstone Associa tes. A-34 INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS RHODE ISLAND BY SIC (New Floor Space in 1,000's of Square Feet) 1966-1975 Sic Ten Code Industry 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Year Totals 20 Food 2D.4 28.9 25.0 0 54.5 28.5 20.1 40.9' 3.4 70.4 292.1 22 Textiles 192.1 56.3 38.9 142.9 88.2 94.0 42.2 161.3 10.2 .6 826.7 23 Apparel 0 0 0 48.0 148.0 0 247.0 0 8.1 583.1 24 Wood Products 113.9 0 0 0 0 B.0 -4.8 0 3.0 2.8 132.5 25 Furniture 0 0 103.0 0 0 1.9 32.0 6.5 3.6 11.4 158.4 26 Paper b.9 9.2 15.4 25.0 0 2.6 0 13 3 24.5 10.0 123.9 27 Printing 18.2 117.7 84.4 81.8 95.2 21.6 43.1 86*6 9.8 8.9 567.3 28 Chemicals 84.6 1.5 74.8 159.6 31.3 40.7 31.1 100*0 79.0 12.1 614.7 29 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 301-6 Rubber Products 22.6 55.4 0 179.0 23.2 0 27.6 0 0 2.1 309.8 307 Plastic 1.1 15.4 5.0 52.5 17.0 78.0 56.1 51.2 30.9 14.9 122.0 0 31 Leather 0 100.0 4.6 6.6 5.2 10.0 0 0 0 126.4 ch 32 Stone, Glass 110.5 170.5 75.6 24.3 10.0 84.5 0 .0 8.0 12.6 496.0 33 Primary Metals 708.4 2.6 32.5 7.3 5.6 2.1 24.0 62.8 35.0 13.0 893.3 34 Fab. Metals 306.8 29.8 214.7. 28.3 261.9 135.9 103.8 106.5 234.8 32'0 1,45,1.5 35 Machinery 248.3 57.5 73.8 95.4 61.6 35.7 25.7 20.8 110.8 41:8 771.4 36 Electrical Machinery 157.8 184.9 31.6 260.4 52.0 7.5 334.3 188.0 41.5 25.0 1,283.0 37 Transportation Equip. 0 0 12.2 0 78.0 93.0 51.8 66.5 0, 66.4 367.9 38 Instruments 5.8 152.7 3.2 9.7 36.7 0 613.0@ 259.8 108.0 0 1,188.9 39 Miscellaneousl/ 135.4 223.3 367.2 233.0 51.2' 294.3 94.3 233.0 137.4 143.0 1,312.1 Unclassified 1810 26.6 39,0 34.3 81.1 121.2 133.5 10.2 463.9 2/ Total 2.149.8 1,337.8 1,179.9 1,332.5 958.6 1.120.5 -1,584.9 1,765.4 973.4 485.2 12,888.0 I/ Includes jewelry and silverware. 2/ Totals may differ from sums slightly due to rounding Source: Rhode Island Department of Economic Development. 1976; Gladstone Associates. wslw,wwwooft go "OWN DISTRIBUTION OF MAJOR INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES CONSTRUCTION STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1966-1975 Total New Projects Additions New Plants Size of Project _(S.F.) Number Percent Number Percent Number PerceFt 5,000-10,000 183 40.0% 84 47.2% 99 35.5% 10,000-25,000 155 33.9% 57 32.0% 98 35.1% 25,000-50,000 64 14.0% 23 12.9% 41 14.7% 50*000-100,000 38 8.3% 10 5.6% 28 10.0% 100,000-250,000 14 3.1% 4 2.2% 10 3.6% 250,000-500,000 1 0.2% 0 0.0% 1 0.4% 500,000-1,000,000 2 0.4% 0 0.0% 2 0.7% Over 1,000,000 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Total 457 100.0% 178 100.0% 279 100.0% Median Size (approx.) 14,400 11,300 16,200 Note: Excludes minor-projects of less than 5,000 square feet. Source: Rhode Island Development Council; Rhode Island Department of Economic Development; Gladstone Associates. INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS WEST BAY SUBAREA (In Square Feet) 1966-1975 Ten Sic Year Totals Code Industry 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 .1975 20 Food -- -- -- -- -- 22,500 -- -- 22,500 0 21 Tobacco - -- 58,465 22 Textiles 18,925 27,540 12,000 23 Apparel -- -- -- 24 Wood Products 25 Furniture 26 Paper 1.800 27 Printing 11800 28 Chemicals -- 29 Petroleum 0 w 30 Rubber Products `4 307 Plastics 0 31 Leather 0 32 Stone, Glass 33 Primary Metals 0 34 Fab. Metals 8,000 81000 35 Machinery 28,640 -- -- -- 28,640 36 Electrical Machinery 11,000 60,000 79500 78,500 367 Electrical Components -- 0 37 Transportation Equip. 41800 11,400 16,200 38 Instruments 39 Miscellaneousil -- 0 Unclassified 10,000 10,000 Total 18,925 1,800 27.540 39,640 12,000 81000 0 97,300 7.500 11,400 224.105 I/ Includes jewelry and silverware. Source: Rhode Island Development Council Report; Gladstone Associates. AVERAGE ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION WEST BAY AREA-2/ (IN SQUARE FEET) 1966-1975 sic Ten Year Code Industry 1966-1970 1971-1975 Average 20 Food -- 4,500 2,250 22 Textiles -- -- -- 23 Apparel 11,693 5,847 24 Wood Products -- -- 25 Furniture 26 Paper -- -- 27 Printing 360 180 28 Chemicals -- -- 29 Petroleum 301-6 Rubber Products 307 Plastics 31 Leather 32 Stone, Glass 33 Primary Metals -- -- 34 Fab. Metals -- 1,600 800 35 Machinery 5,728 -- 2,864 36 Electrical Machinery 2,200 13,500 7,850 37 Transportation Equip. -- 3,240 1,620 38 Instruments -- -- 39 Miscellaneousl/ -- -- -- @Aclassified 2,000 11000 TOTAL 19,981 24,840 22,411 A jJ Includes jewelry and silverware. 2J Includes Exeter, North Kingstown, South Kingstown, Jamestown, N sett, and New Shoreham. Source: Gladstone Associates A-38 No No to Im am Aft low INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS KENT COUNTY SUBAREA (In Square Feet) 1966-1975 Sic Code Industry Ten 20 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Year Totals Food 12.360 .2,016 15,000 - 40,500 -- 1.440 16,000 -- -- 87,316 21 Tobacco -- -- -- 22 Textiles 34,692 22,880 24,000 22,000 24.940 45,170 4,560 315 178,557 23 Apparel -- -- 24 Wood Products 1800 8 000 4,800 3.000 125,600 109 0 25 Furniture -- 1:880 -- 6,500 3,600 26 Paper 15,500 11,980 15,360 912 13,320 -- 45,092 27 Printing 3,000 20,904 -- 13,560 10,500 6,500 86,000 -- - 28 Chemicals 77,579 140,464 29 Petroleum -- 1,000 44,482 59,798 23.110 13,508 5.000 65,983 58,150 9.300 357,910 30 Rubber Products -- 20,010 -- -- 0 307 Plastics 11050 -- 20,010 31 Leather -- -- 6,600 7,650 32 Stone, Glass -- 1000 70,436 0 33 Primary Metals 5-- -- 44,070 81000 127.506 23,534 28,000 6,300 -- -- 24,000 -- -- 81,834 34 Fab. Metals 45,904 26,880 8,000 242,222 81,224* 3,500 23,750 80,740 512,220 35 Machinery 57,494 53.450 10,000 22,550 8,450 17,250 -- 48.150 217,344 36 Electrical Machinery 3,360 51000 4,800 206,098 52,000 6,936 273,194 367 Electrical Components 3,200 -- -- -- -- 3.200 37 Transporation Equip. -- -- 6.000 64,000 -- 70.000 38 Instruments 3,600 72,000 -- 14,400 -- 613,000 25,760 9,600 738,360 39 Mi sce I I aneousy -1,800 66,000 23,020 2.176 62,992 35.,128 39,170 27,526 25,250 283,062 Unclassifed 3!800 9,620 18,200 11,725 15,430 72,659 3,110 -- 134,544 19 Guns -- -- -- -- 3,115 -- -- 3,115 Total 392.873 194,800 285,228 323,816 454,728 329,261 761,039 394,312 253,036 34,865 3.423,958 Includes jewelry and silverware. tource; Rhode Island Development Council Report; Gladstone Associates. AVERAGE ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION KENT COUNTY SUBAREA (IN SQUARE FEET) 1966-1975 sic Ten Year Code Industry 1966-1970' 1971-1975 Average 20 Food 13,975 3,488 8,732 22 Textiles 16,314 19,397 17,856 23 Apparel -- -- -- 24 Wood Products 21,960 3,160 12,560 25 Furniture 2,39@6 1,198 26 Paper 6,172 2,846 4,509 27 Printing 7,493 20,600 14,046 28 Chemicals 41,194 30,388 35,791 29 Petroleum -- -- -- 301-6 Rubber Products 4,002 -- 2,001 307 Plastics 210 1,320 765 31 Leather -- -- -- 32 Stone, Glass 15,087. 10,414 12,751 33 Primary Metals 11,567 4,800 8,183 34 Fab. Metals 64,601 37,843 51,222 35 Machinery 28,699 14,770 21,734 36 Electrical Machinery 54,252 1,387 27,819 367 Electrical Components 640 - 320 37 Transportation Equip. 1,200 12,800 7,000 38 Instruments MON 129,672 73,836 39 Miscellaneous L/ 18,597 38,013 28,306 -- Unclassified 6,324 20,585 13 454 '19 Ordinance 623 312 TOTAL 330,289 354,502 3420399,6 j/ Includes jewelry and silverware. Source: Gladstone Associates A-40 INDUSTRIAL COMSTRUCTION TRENDS URBAN CENTER SUBAREA (In Square Feet) 1966-1975 Sic Ten Code Industry 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Year Totals 20 Food 6,648 26,921 9,977 - 14,000 -- 10,686 2,380 3,435 12,070 86,117 21 Tobacco -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 22 Textiles 68,554 14,460 8,204 71,420 76,232 3,780 7,569 51.152 5,644 307,015 23 Apparel - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 24 Wood Products 4,070 2.840 6,910 25 Furniture -- -- 103,000 5,000 108,000 26 Paper 81425 9,211 -- 24,982 1-507 -- 24,520 -- 68,845 27 Printing 2,880 94,963 84,390 37,734 72,510 11,142 36,626 621 9,840 4g940 355.646 28 Chemicals 7,012 -- 21,843 32,619 8,200 15,168 15,772 28,000 5,600 2.829 137,043 29 Petroleum -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 30 Rubber Products 22,639 S5,397 170,000 -- 279500 -- 29100 277,636 307 Plastics -- 2,436 -- 52,500 35,022 2,800 7,800 13.000 113,558 31 Leather -- -- 4,636 6,640 5,152 10.000 -- -- -- 26,428 32 Stone, Glass 100,230 165,525 -- -- 10,000 40,400 21,130 318,285 33 Primary Metals 129,899 2,595 4,500 1,000 3,409 2 100 -- 30,000 35,008 13,000 221,511 34 Fab. Metals 112.466 29,762 81,516 -- 17,580 27:080- 53,138 52,701 11,436 16,300 401,979 35 Machinery 7,617 57,539 14.598 39,989 24,000 22,200 4,320 20,800 60,252 37.044 288,359 36 Electrical Machinery 25,500 106,285 26,830 19,082 -- 7,527 -- 80,790 2,150 -- 268,164 367 Electrical Components 30,721 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 30,721 37 Transportation Equip. -- -- -- -- 72,000 50,000 -- -- 122,000- 38 Instruments 2,200 80,676 3,195 9,744 22,280 -- 234,000 98,400 -- 450,495 39 Miscellaneousy 129,825 157,287 182,633. 232,992 26,012 213,354 53,065 51,810 65.836 80,611 1,193,425 - Unclassified - -- 14,224 17,000 20,820 13,455 60,650 38,494 106,368 1,936 272,947 Total 668,686 803,057 559,546 71S,702 372,19S 402.935 322,126 590,748 436,289 193,800 5,0559084 Y Includes Jewelry and silverware. Source: Rhode Island Development Council Report; Gladstone Associates. AVERAGE ANNUAL CO NSTRUCTION URBAN CENTER SUBAREA-/ (IN SQUARE FEET) sic 1966-1975. Ten Year Code Industry 1966-1970 1971-1975 Average 20 Food 11,509 5,714 8,612 22 Textiles 47,774 13,629 30,702 23 Apparel -- -- 24 Wood Products 814 568 691 25 Furniture 20,600 1,000 10,800 26 Paper 8,524 5,245 6,884 27 Printing 58,495 12,634 35,565 28 Chemicals 13,934 13,474 13,704 29 Petroleum -- -- -- 30 Rubber Products 49,607 5,920 27,764 307 Plastics 10,987 11,724 11,356 31 Leather 3,286 2,000 2,643 32 Stone, Glass 55,151 8,506 31,828 33 Primary Metals 28,281 16,022 22,151 34 Fab. Metals 48,265 32,131 40,198 35 Machinery 28,749 28,923 28,836 36 Electrical Machinery 35 539 18,093 26,816 367 Electrical Components 6,144 -- 3,072 37 Transportation Equip. 14,400 10,000 12,200 38 Instruments 23,619 66,480 45,049 39 miscellaneous 145,750 92,935 119,342 -- Unclassified 10,409 44,181 27,295 TOTAL 621,837 389,180 505,508 l/ Includes jewelry and silverware. awtucket, includes Providence, Central Falls, Cranston, East Providence, P Johnston, and North Providence. Source: Gladstone Associates A-42 MASS. Or .... .. ... ... .. .. ......... 4" industrial Parks R I LLVI .:!:,.:::;SMITH IELD::1:i]@i:- M RLAND .......... and Areas in ........... N LI N C 0 LN:@* RHODE ISLAND GLOCESTER SMITHFIELD NT F L PA W T C K E T::::;: NORTH PRO ID NCE N JOHNSTON' PROVIDENCE SCITUATE %@T P FOSTER P VIDENCE CRANSTON ARRI ...... .. . WA::. CONN. WES COVENTRY . ..... WA A R I -qTni . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ff EAST GREENWICH WEST GREENWICH .......... PO TSM UTW ........... I V E EXETER NORTH AM TOWN KINGSTOWN ............ MNI-6.... LITTLE TOWN COMPTON RICHMOND HOPKINTON SOUTH KINGSTOWN :EWPORT Industrial Park CHARLESTOWN NARR GANSETT Industrial Area J . .. ...... Serv ed by local ..................... .. . ........ @. W E S T E R LY ndation Industrial Fou .. . . .. .. Entire state served by Industrial Foundation of 3 4 5 -Its Rhode Island sc ALt A-43 on owl Mo MR me so so on, we 1OW MM, MW NO am IM, PROFILE OF INDUSTRIAL PA4KS- STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 map Total Available -Comments ft Park Name Location Acres Acres- Rail tq�way I West Bay Narragansett Industrial Park Narragansett 92 87 No Rt. I-A Poor Location 2 Kent County west Warwick Industrial Park W. Warwick 95 95 No 1-95 Good land Hillsgrove - .95 Industrial Park Warwick 65 35 No 1-95 Good land-expensive ($1.25/foot) Warwick Industrial Park Warwick 60 24 No Alt. I Topographical problems on some available land. 10 good acres left Central Warwick 26 5 No Rt. I C ventry 31 26 Yes Rt. 117 Poor access needs sewers Central Rhode Is land .0 Subtotal 369 272 3 Urban Center Howard Industrial Park Cranston 125 125 Yes 1-95 Good land. but expensive ($1.30/foot) Providence Docks Providence 40 40 Yes 1-95 Speciality appeal-land lease only Almeida Industrial Park E. Providence 55 12 NO 1-95 Topography and,soil problems with remaining land-needs fill/piles Harborside Industrial Park Providence 1.50 ISO Yes 1-95 Available, but usually occupied by short term Westminster Industrial Park E. Providence 40 13 No 1-95 Topographical problems on some available land-5 good acres left an, M be aw INN, a" SO am PROFILE OF INDUSTRIAL PARKS (Cont'd) STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 map Total Available ley Park Name Location Acres Acres Rail Highway Comments Laud Industrial Park E. Providence 30 8 No 1-195 Only marginal land remains Pettaconsett Industrial Park Cranston 41 8 No 1- 95 No land left in 32-acre park, but 8-1/2 acres available/ different owner Huntington Expressway Industrial Park Providence 92 Yes Rt. 10 Sold out West River IndustrAl Park Providence 100 Yes 1- 95 Sold out Subtotal 673 356 4 North-Northwest Burrillville Industrial Park Burrillville 53 47 NO Rt. lOO/ Poor trucking access-sewers 44 needed Cumberland Industrial Park Cumberland 24 4 No 1-295 Good location-little land left Lincoln Industrial Park Lincoln 65 47 No 1-295 Topographical problems-some land unbuildable North Central Air Industrial Pa rk Lincoln 245 22 No 1-295 Little land left-70 acre expansion pending Northern R.I. Industrial Rail Park N. Smithfield 160 160 Yes Rt. 146 Development two to five years away North Central Air Park Addition Lincoln 53 53 No 1-295 Development anticipated soon Woonsocket Woonsocket 68 Yes Rt. 122 Sold out Subtotal 668 333 M so on 00 a" W an so OW OW so so W am so, am 60. am -PROFILE OF INDUSTRIAL PARKS (Cont'd) STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 Ma p Total Availabl e Key Park Name -,Location Acres -Acres --Rail Highway Comments 5 Bristol Countt None 6 East Bay Aquidneck Island Industrial Park Middletown 92 92 No Rt. 114 Site work currently underway-not ready yet. Difficult access 7 Southwest R.I. Westerly Airport Industrial Park Westerly 105 70 No Rt. I Special geographic market. Parcel c7i - C, 70-acre site work in progress State Total 1,907 1,123 Source: Harbridge_House. Department of Economic Development; Gladstone Associates. -4V. PROFILE OF INDUSTRIAL AREAS STATE OF RHODE ISLAND -1976 Mp Total Highway Utilities Comments Key Area Name Location Acres Access S W I West Bay North Kingstown N. Kingstown 33 Rt.-l N Y Y Y. Quonset-Davisville N. Kingstown 750 Rt. 1. 4, 1-95 Y Y Y Y Very good land Tuckahoe-Farms; N. Kingstown 1200 Rti I N Y Y N Premature for development, good potential if 1-895 is built Kingstown S. Kingstown 150-400 Rts. 138/2 Subtotal 2,133-2.383 2 Kent Coun!y W. Greenwich W. Greenwich 275 1-95. 102 N Y N N Premature for development Airport at 95 Industrial Area Warwick 60 1-95 Y Y Y Y Good potential, but expensive-$2.00/ft. Developer prefers build/lease Coventry Coventry 80 Rt. 3/1-95 N Y Y H Not prepared yet Warwick South Warwick 28 Rt. 2/1-95 N Y Y Y Bad topography, fill, rock, ledge-may be 8 unusable acres West Warwick W. Warwick 140 1-95 Y Y Y Y Adjacent to West Warwick Industrial Park. Good land. Utilities and roads must be brought into site Subtotal 583 3 Urban Center E. Providence Industrial Center E. Providence 39 Rt. 44/1-95 Y Y Y N Not prepared yet PROFILE OF INDUSTRIAL AREAS (Cont'd) STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 map Total Highway Utilities Key Area Name Location Acres Access E 5 Comments 4 North-Northwest R.I. Cumberland Cumberland 59 1-295 Y Y Y Y Adjacent to Cumberland Industrial Park. Good location and potential. Near North Central State Airport. Still needs sewer in short run. Some ledge problems. Smithfield Smithfield 113 1.295 N Y Y N Smithfield Smithfield 118 Rt. 7/1-295 N Y Y N Smithfield Smithfield 98 Rt, 7/1-295 N Y Y N 00 Smithfield Smithfield 32 Rt. 7/1-295 N Y Y N Smithfield Smithfield 68 Rt. 7/1-295 N Y Y N Smithfield Smithfield 56 Rt. 7/1-295 N Y Y N 1-295 Industrial Park Lincoln 50 1-295/Rt. 146 Y Y Y Y - Subtotal 594 5 Bristol County Market Street Site Warren 30 1-195 N Y Y N PROFILE OF INDUSTRIAL AREAS (Cont'd) STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 map Total Highway utilities Key Area Name Location Acres Access Comments 6 East Bay Aquidneck Island Airport Middletown 100 Rt. 114 Y Y Y N Newport Navy Base Newport 300 Rt. 114 Y Y Y Y Good potential Subtotal 400 7 Southwest R.I. None State Total 5,025-5,275 to Y - Yes N - No S - Sewer W - Water E - Electricity G a Natural Gas Source: Harbridge House; Rhode Island Department of Economic Development; Gladstone Associates. RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS Sales Trends Inventory of Area Shopping Center's Market Outlook R.I. RETAIL SALES SUBJECT TO SALES TAX qUONSET MARKET AREA 1968-1975 Average Annu-al Chan Estimated Retail Sales (000-S)y 1968-1972 19/Z-1975 1968 1969 1970 19/1 1973 1974 1975 Amount Percent Arnount Percent West North Kingstown $ 33,304 $ 38,245 $ 39,038 $ 44,635 $ 50,541 $ 50.491 S 44.305 $ 40,025 S 4,309 12.9% -$3,505 -6.9% South Kingstown $ 27,920 $ 29,155 $ 29,879 $ 33,579 $ 37,604 $ 49,438 $ 60,483 $ 53,277 $ 2,421 -8.7% $5,224 13.9% Exeter $ 1,152 $ 1,130 $ 1,256 $ 1.538 $ 1,807 $ 1,708 $ 1,650 $ 1.543 $ 164 14.2% -$ 88 -4.9% Narragansett $ 6,932 $ 6,982 $ 7,909 $ 8.546 $ 10,310 $ 9,360 $ 9,577 $ 9,212 $ 844 12.2% -$ 366 -3.6% Jamestown $ 2,509 $ 2,405 $ 2,395 $ 2,622 $ 2,707 $ 2,752 1 2,379 $ 2,170 -$ 50 2.0% -$ 179 -6.6% New Shoreham $ 2,372 $ 2,350 $ 2,771 $ 3,071 $ 3,923 $. 3,417 2,981 $ 3,292 $ 388 16.3% 210 -5.4% Subtotal J_L4,189 $ 80,267 J_@3,248 $ 93,991 $106,892 $117,166 $121,375 $109,519 $ 8,176 11.0% $ 876 0.8% nc:- Kent County c@ East Greenwich $ 22,527 $ 23,360 $ 26,207 $ 31,504 $ 35,583 $ 24,60.1 $ 24.548 $ 21,152 $ 3,264 14.5% -$4,810 -13.5% Covent ry $ 19,116 $ 21,130 $ 22,331 $ 23,335 $ 24 , 348 $ 29,960 $ 27,012 $ 23.180 $ 1,308 6 8% -$ 389 -1.6% West Greenwich $ 543 $ 633 $ 645 $ 640 $ 876 $ 845 $ 1,046 $ 1,187 -$ 83 15*3% - $ 104 11.8% Warwick $200,168 $217,349 $236,105 $275,594 $305,706 $325.354 $302,707 $256,913 $26,384 13:2% -$16,264 -5.3% West Warwick $ 70,532 $ 70,767 $ 75,140 $ 75,553 $66,853 $ 46.649 $ 38.693 $ 31,725 -$ 920 -1.3% -$11,709 -17.5% Subtotal P12.486 11IL239 $360,428 $'4061626 3.366 $4g7,409 $394 006 157 .12g.LJ20 1.6% -$33.070 -7.6% I!L_ __ jLj, Z-- Total Market Area $387.075 $413.506 $443,676 $500,617 $540,258 $544,575 $515,381 $443,676 - $38,296 .9.9% -$32,194 -6.0% Y In 1975 Constant Dollars; does not include sales for exempted items such as food, drugs, and separately taxed gasoline, cigarette, and tobacco. Source: R.I. Department of Economic Development; Gladstone Associates. MON M M M M'M M'm M'm M'M M RETAIL SALES TRENDS WEST BAY SUBAREA 1963-1972 (in Thousands Of 1975 Constant Dollars) Average Annual Change 1963-1967 1967-1972 Retai I Category 1963 1967 1972 Number Perc@nt N umbe r Percent Comparison Goods General Merchandise 3,245.1 5,372.8 14,404.9 531.9 16.4% 1,806.4 33.6% Apparel 1,406.3 1,710.3 (D) 76.0 5.4% _(D) Furniture 1,416.9 2,324.5 4,479.3 226.9 16.0% 431.0 18.5% Subtotal 6,068.3 9,407.6 (D) 834.8 13.8% (D) Con ven-i en ce Goods 3:P Food 22,696.2 27,671.6 39,049.1 1,243.9 5.5% 2,275.5 8.2% ZM Drug 3,129.1 3,248.2 (D) 29.8 1.0% (D) Subtotal 25,825.3 30,919.8 (D) 1,273.6 4.9% (D) Eating & Drinking 7,885.9 9,046.5 19,630.7 290.2 3.7% 2,116.8 23.4% All Othera/ 17,953.1 49,365.9 71,233.5 .2,853.2 7.5% 4,373.5 8.9% Total 779732.6 98,739.8 156,788.3 5,251.8 6.8% 11,609.7 11.8% Includes automotice dealers, gas stations, lumber, building materials and hardware, miscellaneous retail stores and non-store retail. Loosely defined here as Washington County minus Westerly. D = Data withheld to avoid disclosure. Source: U.S. Census of Retail Trade; Gladstone Associates M M M M M M RETAIL SALES TRENDS KENT COUNTY SUBAREA 1963-1972 (in Thousands of 1975 Constant DDII-ars) Average Annual Change 1963-1976 1967-IM Retail Category 1963 1967 1972 Number Per -Number Percent Comparison Goods General Merchandise 38,689.6 82,339.3 126,228.8 10,912.4 28.2% 8,777.9 10.7% Apparel 10,213.4 14,522.5 39,911.1 1,077.3 10.5% 5,077.7 35.0% Furniture 10,206.4 11.957.8 18,822.8 437.9 4.3% 1,373.0 11.5% 59,109.4 108,819.6 184,962.7 12,427.6 21.0% 15,228.6 14.0% Convenience Goods r-oo-d 73,794.9 89,538.5 99,281.8 3,935.9 5.3% 1,948.7 2.2% Drug 9,670.2 12,044.9 13,158.3 593.7 6.1% 222.7 1.8% Subtotal 83,465.1 101.583.4 112,440.1 4,529.6 5.4% 2,171.4 2.1% 1,348.1 7.4% 2,705.2 11.4% Eating and Drinkin g 18,334.9 23,727.0 37,253.2 All OtherY 111,222.3 122,742.5 179,305.9 2,880.1 2.6% 11,312.7 9.2% Totalv 272,133.5 356,872.6 513,961.9 21,184.8 7.8% 31,417.9 8.8% Y Includes automotive dealers, gas-stations, lumber, building materials and hardware, miscellaneous retail stores and non-store retail. Subtotals may not add to total due to rounding. Source: U.S. Census of Retail Trade; Gladstone Associates. 777 CRANSTON 2 103 114 195 13 29 95 108 5 7 WARW 195 I C '15 2 114 138 95 16 1@ I 77 3 102 QUONSET POINT NORTH KINGSTOWN 138 F5 138 38 13 i38 2 X. NEWPORT 2 SOUTH I KINGSTOWNN 108 & 4 LOCATION OF SELECTED SHOPPING CENTERS WEST BAY AND KENT COUNTY SUBAREAS A-53 PROFILE OF SELECTED SHOPPING CENTERS QUONSET MARKET AREA Key No. of Approx. -Major Tenants No. Name/Location Developer Tenants Size (S.F.) Name S.F. Vacant (S.F.) West Bay I Belmont Shopping Center .8 50,0.00 A&P 28,000 Main & Kingstown Rds. New England Telephone 5,800 0 Wakefield, R.I. Belmont Fruit. 4,000 Vincent J..Siravo Adams Drugs 7,500 Former Grants--36,000 2 Kingstown Plaza 13 87,000 Sears. Roebuck & Co (Catalog Store) 4,000. 21000 Post Road, No. Kingstown Singer Co. (Sewing ilachines) 3,500 2,500 Kingstown Plaza 3 Wakefield Mall 11 120,000 Woolworth's N/A Main Street, Wakefield Stop & Shop N/A 0 '> Mr. Levy Donnelly's N/A cn 4 Warwick Shopper's World 9 115,530 Zayre 70,000 Frenchtown & Post Rds. Star Market 25,000 1,000 (est). North Kingstown Fayva Shoes 5,851 Arlen Shopping Centers. Inc. Kent County 5 Airport Plaza 40 125,225 All small shops approximately the Seven Shops, total-- 1800 Post Rd., Warwick same size. N/A 20,000 (est.) Rhedon Realty Corp. 6 Ann and Hope 3 197.500 Ann & Hope 170,000 Post Rd. (Rte 1), Warwick Stop & Shop 26,000 0 Stacey Development Corp. Pharmacy Service 1.500 PROFILE OF SELECTED SHOPPING CENTERS (Cont.) QUONSET MARKET AREA Key No. of Approx. Major Tenants No. Name/Location/Developer Tenants Size (jfj Name S.F. Vacant 1S.F.) 7 Gateway Shopping Center 30 85,000 Gateway Pharmacy 10,000 1645 Warwick Ave., Warwick Ben Franklin Store 10,000 0 Gateway Realty. Inc. Donnelly's Mens Wear 10,000 8 Governor Francis Shopping Cen. is 96,360 UP 20,000 1160 Warwick Ave.. Warwick Save Rite (Catalog Store) 18,000 9,000 Nelmor Realty Co. Adams Drug Store 91000 3,000 9 Midland Mall 78 468,000 Sears 205,619 Former Shepard's Rtes. 2 & 113, Warwick Cherry & Webb 26,622 81,015 S.F. Homart Development Corp. Midland Mall Cafeteria 10,686 10 Village Mall 120 90,000 Cherry & Webb NIA Two small shops 1400 Post Rd.. Warwick 100 S.F. each (est.) tn Village Mall, Inc. Cn 11 Meadowbrook Shopping Center, 8 50.000 First National 12,000 2400-2450 Warwick Ave., Warwick Benny's Auto Stores 10,000 0 Meadowbrook Corp. Meadowbrook Cinemas 1. 11, 111 8,200 12 Warwick Mall so 110001000 Outlet Company 120,000 Route 2, Warwick Jordan Marsh Co. 320,000 0 Bliss Properties Filene's 120,000 13 Warwick Plaza 17 107.168 Big G 24,806 760-840 Post Rd., Warwick Sun and Fun 20,973 0 Post Road Associates Weintraub's 16,200 14 Warwick Shopper's World 3 109,650 Warwick-Zayre 62.500 320 Warwick Avenue, Warwick First National 24,000 0 Warnew Limited Industrial National Bank 3,150 PROFILE OF SELECTED SHOPPING CENTERS (Cont.) QUONSET MARKET AREA Key No. of Approx. MaJor Tenants Vacant (S.F.) No. Name/Location/Developer Tenants Size (S.F.) Name is Coventry Plaza .12 128,006 K-Mart (est) 70,000 3.000 1111 Tiogue Ave.,*Coventry Almacs 30,000 (est) 2,000 Coventry Plaza Associates Brooks Discount N/A 4.000 16 East Greenwich Shopping Cen. 10 50 000 Almacs- N/A 533 Main St., E. Greenwich (est) Thorpe's Liquor Pharmacy N/A. 0 Source: Providence Journal Publication: "A Guide to R.I. Shopping Centers;" Shopping Cantar Directory, National Research Bureau; Gladstone Associates. CA A CONVENIENCE GOODS RETAIL POTENTIAL QUONSET-DAVISVILLE MARKET AREA 1975-2000 7990 2000 Number of Households 16,600 18,700 Mean Household Income $20,700 $23,700 Aggregate Income (000's) $343,620 $443,790 Percent Spent on Convenience Goods 14.7% 14.7% Aggregate Convenience Goods Sales (000's) $50,512 $65,149 Estimated Productivity Required (Sales/S.F.) $730 $750 Total Supportable Convenience Goods-Space 388,500 S.F. 434,300 S.F. Less 1975 Inventory of Convenience Goods Space 207,500 S.F. 207,500 S.F. Net New Supportable Retail Space 187,000 S.F. 226,800 S.F. Percent Capture at Quonset-Davisville Site 28% 27% Convenience Goods Retail Potential at Quonset-Davisville 50,000 S.F. 60,000 S.F. Source: Gladstone Associates. COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL POTENTIAL QUONSET-DAVISVILLE MARKET AREA 1975-2000 1990 2000 Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Market Area Market Area Total Market Area Market Area Total Number of Households 16,600 70,800 87,400 18.700 77.500 96,200 Mean Household Income $20,700 $21,600 $21,400 $23,700 $24.600 $241@400 Aggregate Income (000's) $343,620 $1,529,280 $1,872.900 $443,190 $1,906,500 $2,349,690 Percent Spent on Comparison Goods 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% $221,746 $271,570 $64,706 $278,349 $343,055 Aggregate Compaeison Goods Sales (000's) 149,824 00 Percent Capture at Quonset-Davisville Site- 9.5% 1.7% 3.1% 13.5% 3.0% 5.0% On-Site Comparison Goods Sales (000,S) $4,730 $3,770 $8,500 $8,750 $8,350 $17,100 Estimated Productivity Required (Sales/S.F.) $85 - $85 $85 $90 $90 $90 Comparison Goods Retail Potential at Quonset-Davisville Site 55.600 S.F. 44,400 S.F. 100,000 S.F. 97,200 S.F. 92.800 S.F. 190,000 S.F. Source: Gladstone Associates. BACKGROUND OFFICE AND HOTEL DATA mm MAJOR OFFICE BUILDINGS IN CBD PROVIDENCE With Vacant Space Available -- May 1974 and January 1975 Total Space Space 5000 Sq. Ft. Rate Available Available Blocks Per Sq. Ft. Space May 1974 January 1975 FINANCIAL DISTRICT Hospital Trust Towers 322,284 35,000 32,545 0 $7.75 Hospital Trust Building 217,935 32,000 10,000 0 $5.75 40 Westminster Building 260,000 21,000 28,130 3 $6.00 Industrial Bank Building 310,600 18,000 19,000 1 $6.75 up Union Trust Building 60,750 15,000 12,000 2 Howard Building 170,000 7,000 16,000 3 $6.00 --$7.00 One Weybosset Hill 102,925 9,000 0 0 $6.00 $7.50 Regency (s) 33,400 17,000 10,653 0 $6.00 $7.50 Turk's Head Building 134,500 0 0 0 MOSHASSUCK SQUARE Moshassuck Arcade 48,000 48,000 48,000 10 MOO $7.00 University Heights 20,000 20,000 20,000 4 $3.00 -- SOUTH MAIN STREET Heritage Building 41,104 31,522 31,522 6 $7.75 Urban Renewal-Renovated 20,000 20,000 20,000 Property (estimate) TOTAL 1,741,498 273,000 247,850 29 Firms moving Into CBD Since 1970 Location Space From Travlers Insurance one Weybosset Hill 459000 New Operation Zerox Corporation it 5,100 East Providence ATT 3,000 Framingham, MA Rhode Island Department of Economic Development Research Division January 1975 MAJOR SUBURBAN OFFICE BUILDINGS STATE OF RHODE ISLAND NOVEMBER 1974 Year Total Name/Location Built Space Comments Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. 1974 350,000 S.F. There will probably be an attempt by Metropolitan Life Quaker Lane to rent surplus space of up to 100,000 S.F. Warwick MFB Mutual Insurance Co. 1970 250,000 S.F. As of late 1974, 40,000 of potentially surplus space Atwood Avenue was included in this building. Johnston Marquette Credit Union 1974 89,000 S.F. Credit union will occupy 17-19% of space. Local 52 Cumberland Street tenants expected to fill 50-60%. One or two major Woonsocket tenants expected from outside Woonsocket. CD 1414 Atwood Avenue 1973 21,100 S.F. Top (third) floor untenanted as of late 1974. Johnston (Carpionto and Sons-developer) 1150 New London Avenue 1973 21,600 S.F. Building was roughly half full as of late 1974. Cranston (James Diprete-developer) 1145 Reservoir Avenue 1969 26,385 S.F. Plans to build two other buildings were abandoned and Cranston land adjacent to this building is presently for sale. (Kelley and Picerne-developer) Source: Haebridge House; Rhode Island Department of Economic Development. MAJOR qUALITY HOTELIMOTEL FACILITIES QUONSET-DAVISVILLE AREA 1976 Year Number of Double Occupancy Name Location Opened Rooms Room Rates King's Inn U.S. I & Rte. 138 1968 106 $20 - $21 South Kingstown Dutch Inn Great Island Road 1968 100 $32 @--$38 Galilee Howard Johnson's Jefferson Boulevard N/A 124 $20 - $25 Warwick Sheraton Motor Inn 1850 Post Road N/A 125 $33 - $35 Warwick cn Carlton House Motor Inn 2082 Post Road N/A 105 N/A Warwick Rhode Island Yankee 2081 Post Road N/A 83 N/A Motor Inn Warwick So*ce: Rhode Island Development Council; Gladstone Associates. al R; EXISTING QUONSET CONDITIONS OCCUPATIONAL MIX OF EMPLOYEES EXISTING QUONSET USES 1976 Ocean State A -my Electric Port Training Golf J/ National Total OcMation Boat Authority Center F.A.A. course Guard Number Percent Professional, Technical, Managerial, Adminis- trative, and Sales Workers 591 8 12 57 3 40 711 13% Clerical and Kindred Workers 254 3 1 1 259 5% Craftsmen, Foremen, and 2 19 2,331 44% Kindred Workers 2,284 26 Operatives, including 1,882 36% Transport 1,864 18 Service Workers 41 41 1% Laborers 42 5 47 1% Total 5,035 96 12 58 10 60 5,271 100% jj Estimated by Gladstone Associates. Source: Existing users; Gladstone Associates. EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL ELECTRIC BOAT 1976 Estimated Total Employees Annual Payroll Occupation Number Percent Salary (Millions) Professional, Technical, Managerial, Adminstrative, and Sales Workers 591 12% N/A N/A Clerical and Kindred Workers 254 5% $ 8,600 $ 2.2 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers 2,284 45% N/A N/A Operatives, including Transport 1,864 37% N/A N/A Service Workers -- -- Laborers 42 1% N/A N/A Total 5,035 100% $10,800 $54.3 N/A = Not Available Source: Mr. James E. Kanaley, Manager Industrial Relations, Electric Boat; Gladstone Associates. A-63 EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL PORT AUTHORITY 1976 Estimated Total Employees Annual Payroll Occupation Number ..Percent Salary (Milljons) Professional, Technical, Managerial, 8 8% N/A N/A Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 3 3% N/A N/A Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers .26 28% N/A N/A Operatives, Including Transport 18 19% N/A N/A Service Workers 41 42% N/A N/A Laborers -- -- N/A N/A Total 96 100%. $1.3, 5 001/ $1.3 I/ Calculated by dividing the total payroll figure, as given by the PAEDC, by the number of workers. N/A = Not Available. Source: Conversations with officials of the Rhode Island Port Authority and Economic Development Corporation; Glad stone Associates. A-64 EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL OCEAN STATE TRAINING SCHOOL 1976 Estimated Total Employees Annual Payroll Occupation Number ..Percent Salary-. (Millions) Professional, Technical, Managerial, 12 100% $11,200 $-134 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers Operatives, Including Transport Service Workers Laborers Total 12 100% $11,200 $.134 Source: Conversation with Mr. John Anderson, Ocean.@State Training Center; Gladstone Associates. A-65 EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLY NORTH KINGSTOWN GOLF COURSE-@/ 1976 Estimated Total Employees Annual Payroll OccuRation @Number ..Percent Salary (Millions) Professional, Technical, Managerial, 3 30% N/A N/A Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers -- -- Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 2 20% N/A N/A Operatives, Including Transport -- -- Service Workers -- Laborers 5 -50% N/A N/A Total 10 100% $9,50GY $..095 Employment varies between 5 and 20 depending on the time of year. Some workers are paid using CETA funds. 2/ Includes other recreational uses by the town and their accompanying employment. 3/ Estimates by Gladstone Associates using the 1972 Census of Selected Service Industries figures for payroll and employment for Public Golf Courses in Rhode Island. N/A = Not Available.' Source: Mr. Edwin J. Coles, Recreation Director, Town of Nor th Kingstown; Gladstone Associates. A-66 EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL F.A.A. 1976 Estimated Total Employees Annual Payroll Occupation Number ..Percent Salary (Mi 11 ions)_ Professional, Technical, Manageriat, 57 98% $21,900 $1.248 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 1 2% N/A N/A Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers Operatives, Including Transport Service Workers Laborers Total 58 100% $21,700 $1.256 N/A Not Available. Source: Conversation with F.A.A. officials; Gladstone'Associates. EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL RHODE ISLAND ARMY NATIONAL GUARD 1976 Estimatedl/ Total Employees Annual Payroll Occupation Number ..Percent @r. jMillions) Professional, Technical, ManageriaT 40 67% $12,800 $.512 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 1 2% N/A N/A Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 19 31% $13,200 $.251 Operatives, Including Transport -- -- -- Service Workers Laborers -- -- Total 60 100% $12,850 $371 I/ Estimates by Gladstone Associates using Army National Guard estimates for specific occupations. N/A = Not Available. Source: Conversation with Captain Santoro, Technician Personnel Office. Rhode Island National Guard; Gladstone Associates. A-68 TECHNICAL APPENDIX B BACKGROUND OIL SUPPORT INDUSTRY DATA - Overview of Marketability - PhAsing and Employment COASTAL ZONE INFORMATION CENTER TECHNICAL APPENDIX B BACKGROUND OIL SUPPORT INDUSTRY DATA Onshore support facilities for Outer Continental Shelf petroleum explora- tion and production have been examined in terms of: (1) supportable activities for Quonset Point/Davisville, and (2) implied on-site employment likely over time. Each of these issues was discussed generally in the main report, the former in Chapter IV and the latter in Chapter VI. Overview of Marketability Our estimates of the likely OCS-related onshore support facilities, as shown in the tables following, are based upon published information in the New England River Basins Commission Factbook and also on the Woodward-Clyde Associates study of the Mid-Atlantic region. Estimates are made for land and waterfront usage for the major types of onshore support facilities. For each of the major types of facilities, the specific considerations under- lying our judgements are detailed in the paragraphs below. Temporary Service Bases -- It is very likely that Quonset Point/Davisville could accommodate all the land and waterfront space requirements for these facilities. Specifically, these are established during the exploratory phase and therefore not contingent upon find level. There is a very strong probability that up to five temporary service bases will be established, and (based upon the experience to date) it is very likely that most of these could be attracted to Quonset Point/Davisville. Permanent Service Bases -- As the probability for a medium or high find increases, the intensity of service base activities also increases. The temporary bases are then expanded (assuming suitable land is available) and take on a more permanent nature. At Quonset Point/Davisville, it is quite possible that virtually all the permanent service base land requirements could be met at all find levels. Also, it appears that waterfront usage requirements could be accommodated, assuming joint usage of pier space is possible. Services provided at a permanent base here could be used for either Georges Bank or the Baltimore Canyon. Platform Fabrication Yards -- Although the NERBC report does not indicate a platform fabrication yardto serve Georges Bank, Brown and Root has expressed strong interest in building a modest size yard -- on about 100 acres at Davisville. Accordingly, we have planned for this use. Platform Installation Service Bases -- It is certainly possible that Quonset Point/Davisville could accommodate this activity. According to our source data, however,.only 20-30 acres and approximately 200 feet of marginal wharf space would be required. B-1 Pipelines and Landfalls -- The primary criterion in selecting a landfall site is proximity to the fiel n this basis, it would seem very likely that alterna- tive landfall sites exist which are better located than the Quonset Point/Davisville facility, and therefore these are not expected to occur here. Pipeline Installation Service Bases -- Assuming that a pipeline is actually _T_ constructed, there would be a need or a service base for the required vessels and crews. This facility would be very similar to the service bases mentioned above and would likely coexist very well with them. Pipe Coating Yards -- Again this assumes that a pipeline is eventually con'M structed. In this event, it appears that a pipe coating yardcould be accommodbted at Quonset Point/Davisville. The major proportion (95 percent) of the land required for this facility would be used for open storage. More critical, however, is a requirement for usage of 750 feet of marginal wharf space for the duration of the pipe laying activities. - Gas Processinq Plent -- Depending upon the find levels, it is conceivable that a gas processing plant could be located at Quonset Point/Davisville. However, there are several logistical/transportation constraints, as well as potentially severe land use conflicts at the site. Therefore, a gas processing plant was not included. Oil Refinery -- Because of the existing refining capacity in New Jersey and @ennsylvania, it is not considered likely that a new refinery would'be located in New England to serve only offshore oil. Moreover, even if a new refinery was to be located in New England, the land shortage and incompatibility with other uses at Quonset Point/Davisville would likely preclude its location there. Marine Terminals -- A marine terminal is established to supply a refinery or to load tankers from a landfall site. Since it is unlikely that either a refinery or a landfall would be located at Quonset Point/Davisville, it was also considered unlikely that a marine terminal would be located there. Phasing and Employment After this general overview had been completed, three alternative "mixes" of onshore oil support facilities were analyzed. Alternative A was to locate a platform fabrication yard, a platform installa- tion service base, a:pipe-coating.yard, a pipeline installation service base, and permanent service bases at Quonset Point/Davisville. Alternative B included only a platform fabrication yard, a platform installation service base, and permanent service bases, and alternative C assumed that-all of the land available for oil- related uses went for permanent service bases. These three alternatives were studied to determine whether the implied cap- ture percentages of total onshore New England activity were realistic and also to see which mix produced the most jobs. Since the above referenced capture per- centages only express Quonset Point/Davisville as a percent of Georges Bank activity (rather than as a percent of both Georges Bank and Mid-Atlantic activity), these were used as guidelines to insure that the magnitude of the onshore facilities programmed here was reasonable. B-2 It is important to re-emphasize that the oil companies have expressed a strong desire to service both Georges Bank and the Mid-Atlantic region from a Quonset Point/Davisville location. Indeed, as a further test of reasonableness, the Department of Economic Development showed the land use plans for the align- ment and mix of oil-support facilities to various oil company officials and received confirmation that the scale and configuration were appropriate. The next step in the planning process was to examine the timing of each of the onshore support activities and to scale the accompanying employment buildup. The New England River Basins Commissions report on Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development was the principal source document. Detailed tables showing land use and employment in each year for each oil support facility were used to predict the amount of employment at Quonset for each use in each year. Simply put, employment is estimated in direct proportion to the amount of land being used at Quonset compared to overall land needs for each support activity. For example, if Quonset Point/Davisville was to provide 30 percent of the land needed for a specific onshore support facility, it was assumed that 30 percent of total New England employment in that activity would accrue to the base. Thus, our phasing of the employment buildup for each oil support activity is keyed directly to NERBC. With respect to a platform fabrication yard additional assumptions were made. NERBC stated that such a facility would operate from years 4 to 13 with peak operation during years 7 and 8. First, we adjusted NERBC's schedule of the number of platforms constructed each year to reflect Brown and Root's suggested peak production level of 6 platforms a year. Next we applied NERBC's figure of 250 employees per platform per year to this schedule, thus arriving at a phased employment buildup. For instance, in year 4, two platforms would be built with 500 people being employed. This would increase until, in years 7 and 8, six platforms a year would be built with 1,500 employees working at the facility. In year 13 the last four platforms would be built and 1,000 people would be employed and by year 14 this activity will have ceased. Finally, the short duration of some of the oil support activities implies that reuse of some of the land is possible after the oil companies vacate. And. in fact, the assumptions underlying this reuse are discussed in Techanical Appendix III following. B-3 OVERVIEW OF MARKETABILITY Am NMI so oft am OW 0" MO a- a '10 INVENTORY OF OCS RELATED ONSHORE SUPPORT FACILITIES ALTERNATIVE "FIND" SCENARIOS Number of Facilities Mid- Land Use (Acres) Mid- Oil Support Facilities High Y Med. No Afl. High Y Med - y No Atl. Service Bases: 75 75 75 39 Temporary 4-5 4-5 4-5 1 Permanent 10-20 6-12 0 5.5 500 300 0 487.5 Platform Fabrication Yard 1 0 '00 0 0 11000 Platform Installation 0 30 20 0 Service Base I I Pipelines and Landfalls 6 2 0 6 6 2 0 240 Pipeline Installation N/A Service Base I 1 0 K/A 40 30 0 Pipe Coating Yard 2 1 0 N/A 200 100 0 N/A 4@b Gas Processing Plants 6 2 0 8 345 120 0 600 Marine Terminals 1 0 0 2 100 0 0 80 Refinery 1 0 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 Totals 2,500 650 75 N/A NERBC-Based on U.S.G3. estimate o_T_r4 billion barrels of oil. 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas (5% probabilit IT yl ility / NERBC-Based on U.S.G.S. estimate of 0.9 billion barrels of oil, 4.2 trillion cubic feet Of gas (35% probab 3/ NERBC-Exploration occurs. but no commercial quantities are discovered (60% probability) Woodward-Clyde-Based on U.S.G.S. estimate of 6.0 billion barrels of oil, 32.0 trillion cubic feet of gas--This was U.S.G.S. estimate prior to May, 1975 and which has since been reduced. 5 Aggregate of Woodward-Clyde categories of service support for development rigs. . operations bases, and offices. Woodward-Clyde estimated 6 pipeline terminals which included storage and pumping facilities not found under NERBC landfalls--hence, acreage is much greater. ZI Woodward-Clyde estimated 2 pipeline terminals with barge facilities. These would seem to be equivalent to HERBC definition of marine terminals. Source: NERBC-RALI Project Onshore Facilities Rela'ted to Offshore Oil and Gas DeveloRTent (Georges Bank); Woodward-Clyde. Mi@-Atlantic Regional Study Gladstone Associates. ANN No as go am ON '0W so go 4W 00 00 so MO OCS RELATED ONSHORE SUPPORT FACILITIES ESTIMATES OF QUONSETIDAVISVILLE MAXIMUM CAPTURE Number of Facilities Land Use (Acres Mid- Oil SuP20rt Facilities High Y Med. ?J Mo ?J AtI. Y High Y Med. ?J ILo Y Atl_ V Service Bases: Temporary 2-5 2-5 2-5 0-20% 30-75 30-75 30-75 0-8 Permanent 4-12 4-12 1-2 200-300 200-300 90-180 Platform Fabrication Yard I 1 100 100 100 Platform Installation Service Base I 1 0-20% 30 20 0 N/A Pipelines and Landfalls Pipeline Installation Service Base I N/A 40 30 0 N/A Pipe Coating Yard I I N/A 100 100 0 N/A Gas Processing Plants 0-1 0-60 0 0 0 Cn Marine Terminals Refinery Totals 500-705 480-625 30-75 190-288 I NERBC-Based on U.S.G.S. estimate 5T-FT billion barrels of oil, 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas (5% probabilit ?YJ/ NERBC-Based on U.S.G.S. estimate of 0.9 billion barrels of oil, 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas (35% probabililty"I., @ 3 NERBC-Exploration occurs. but no commercial quantities are discovered (60% probability). Y/ Woodward-Clyde-Based on U.S.G.S. estimate o 6.0 billion barrels of oil. 32 trillion cubic feet of gas (U.S.G.S. estimate prior to May, 1975 and which has since been reduced. Aggregate of Woodward-Clyde categories of service support for development rigs, operation bases, and offices. Percentage.of services performed at Quonset/Davisville. Source: NERBC-RALI Project, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development (Georges Bank); Woodward-Clyde. Mid-AtlantiF'Reqional Stgdx; Gladstone Assoc-f-afes. ESTIMATES-OF OCS-RELATED ONSHORE SUPPORT'FACILITIES FROM MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK AND MID-ATLANTIC SCENARIO AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE, Totall/ Quonset Capture -(Maximum)?i -U-se Number of Land Use NumTe-rof Land Oil Support Facilities Facilities (Acres) Facilities (Acres) Service Bases: Temporary 5-6 114 2-5 30-80 Permanent 10-18 790 5-14 290-480 Platform Fabrication Yard 1 11000 1 100 Platform Installation Service Base 2 20 1 20 Pipelines and Landfalls 8 242 0 -- Pipeline Installation Service Base 20-1/ 1+ 20+ Pipe Coating Yard 100-1/ 1+ 100+ Gas Processing Plants 10 720 0 -- Marine Terminals 2 80 0 Refinery 0 0 0 -- Totals -- 3sO86+-- -- 560-800+ L/ NERBC-RALI Project, Onshore facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development (Georges Bank )@ Woodward-Clyde, Mid--Altantic Regional Study 2/ Gladstone Associates 3/ Figures are for Georges Bank only. Mid-Atlantic region figures are not available. B-6 PHASING AND EMPLOYMENT PERMANENT SERVICE BASE REQUIREMENTS ESTIMATES FOR NEW ENGLAND HIGH FIND GEORGES BANK Land Linear Total Resident Use Wharf Employ- Employ- Year (Acres) (Feet) ment ment 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 75 1,400 237 119 3 175 1,800 317 162 4 400 2,200 386 205 5 400 2,200 387 217 6 400 3,000 542 325 7 400 3,800 715 450 8 400 5,400 1,033 682 9 400 7,200 1,391 946 10 500 91000 1,573 11101 11 500 11,000 1,728 1,244 12 500 12,600 1,736 1,285 13 500 13,800 1,725 1,295 14 500 14,600 1,541 1,171 15 500 14,400 1,213 934 16 500 14,400 982 766 17 500 14,200 795 628 18 500 14,200 846 677 19 500 13,600 840 672 20 .500 13,600 875 700 21 500 13,000 906 725 22 500 12,400 834 667 23 500 11,800 745 596 24 500 10,800 673 538 25 500 9,600 568 454 Source: NERBC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development: Estimates'for New England B-7 PERMANENT SERVICE BASE REQUIREMENTS ESTIMATE FOR NEW ENGLAND MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK Land Linear Total Resident Use Wharf Employ- Employ- Year (Acresl (Feet) ment ment 0 0 _0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 50 1,400 237 119 3 75 1,800 317 162 4 100 2,200 386 205 5 100 2,200 380 213 6 200 2,400 401 241 7 200 3,000 472 297 8 250 3,400 516 341 9 300 5,000 894 608 10 300 6,200 1,076 753 11 300 6,400 1,057 761 12 300 6,600 846 626 13 300 6,200 485 364 14 300 5,800 413 314 15 300 5,600 292 225 16 300 .5,600 307 239 17 300 5,400 346 274 18 300 5,400 335 268 19 300 5,200 383 306 20 300 5,200. 483 386 21 300 4,200 418 334 22 300 4,200 319 314 23 300 4,600 363 290 24 200 3,800 318 290 25 200 3,200 283 226 Source: NERBC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development - Estimates for New England B-8 TOTAL OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I HIGH FIND GEORGES BANK 3, 2,800- 2,600- %.0"0 2,400- % 2,200- 2,000- 11800- 11600-- 1,400- A 1,200- \\416 11000- 800- 600- 400- 200- 12 @3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 IS 19 20 21 24 25 OIL FACILITY MIXES AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE A -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installation service base, pipe coating yard, pipeline installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE B -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installatTo-nservice base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE C includes permanent service bases only. Source: NERBC-RALI; Gladstone Associates. B-9 a" yew we so a* TOTAL OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I HIGH FIND GEORGES BANK YEAR: 1 2 3 4 5, 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 2-0 2-1 -22 2-3 .24 25 Alternative A Platform Fabrication Yard 500 750 1,250 1.500 1,500 1.250 1,250 1,000 1,000 1,000 Platform Installation Ser. Base 15 20 40 60 60 60 60 40 3S Pipe Coating Yard 120 50 70 70 so 6S 45 Pipeline Installation Ser. Base 15 30 15 20 20 20 20 15. Permanent Ser. Bases 95 125 260 260 365 485 700 750 850 935 935 930 830 660 530 425 455 450 475 490 450 400 365 305 Total U TH 6" TTS TMT T.10-4-0 TITU 71H T75-0 TT8T T.10-7 5TWO M W. W U5 T9 TZ UT 96 WO WE W M9 Alternative 8 Platform Fabrication -- 500 750 1,250 1,500 1,500 1,250 1,250 1.000 1,000 1,000 Platform Installation Ser. Base 15 20 40 60 60 60 60 40 35 Permanent Ser. Bases 160 200 370 370 520 690 995 1 070 1 210 1 330 1 335 1,330 1 185 935 755 610 650 645 675 690 635 565 510 435 ft 2.365 ft. yff 7 n m w i u rm r9T rz w w ug Total 76-0 TOO @ 7-0 TT33 T.T9-d T.13-0 T.T5-5 Vi-i6 -?.-;YO t, NO t, 5T Alternative C Permanent Ser. Bases -- 237 317 446 447 627 885 1.203 1,571 1,525 1,675 1,685 1,675 1,445 1,180 950 770. 820 810 850 880 810 720 650 550 Source: HERaC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development - Estimates for New England; Gladstone Associates ot.- N. RESIDENT OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I HIGH FIND GEORGES BANK 3,00C; 21800- 2,600- 2,400- 2,200- 1000- -ft de OP 1,800- 1,600- 1,400- 1,200- %0 N 800- % "000- 600- 400- 1 .000, 200- I I I I 'I @2 13 24 A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 OIL FACILITY MIXES AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE A -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform instaTTa-t-f-onservice base, pipe coating yard, pipeline installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE B -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE C Includes permanent service bases only. Source: NERBC-RALI; Gladstone Associates. A B-11 a" OW owl RESIDENT OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I HIGH FIND GEORGES BANK YEAR: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Alternative A Platform Fabrication Yard 400 600 1.000 1,200 1,200 1,000 LOW 800 .800 800 Platform Instal latio6 Ser. Base - 10 10 25 40 40 40 40 30 25 Pipe Coating Yard 110 45 60 60 70 55 40 Pipeline Instal lation Go Ser. Base To 20 10 15 15 is 15 10 i Permanent Ser. Base 50 65 140 145 220 305 460 510 595 675 690 700 630 510 415 335 365 360 380 390 360 320 290 245 -@Tay 6wwwmy Total 4" 79 T;1M T.W T;F3-0 T.TOT T".M T.W r. -60'9 T.T9T W: M W% T3 60 38 U Alternative 8 Platform .Fabrication 400 600 1,000 1,, 2W 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 Platform Installation Ser. Base - 10 10 25 40 40 40 40 30 - 25 Permanent Ser. Base 80 100 195 205 310 435 655 725 845 960 990 1 000 900 720 590 480 520 515 540 560 515 460 415 350 -8-6 10-0 "9 -8 T5 T73-2-0 T766-0 T-.89-5 1-.76-5 1.885 1,800 1,820 t.'-id-5 -90-0 12-0 V9-0 480 520 515' -64-0 -6-6-0- -59 TOO -41T TOO Alternative C Permanent '555 795 1,070 1,065 1.205 1.245 1,255 1.100 910 740 610 655 650 680 705 645 580 520 440 Ser. Base -- 119 162 235 250 375 Source: NERBC-RALI. Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development - Estimates for New England; Gladstone Associates DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I -- HIGH FIND OIL SUPPORT ASSUMPTIONS ON LAND AVAILABLE Davisville Piers 85 acres Area Adjacent to Davisville Piers (Navy retained) 85 acres Dogpatch Beach Area 30 acres Flightpath Area 150 acres -Reienue Produci@ng Area 24 acres Warehousing Area 70 acres Personnel Support Area 40 acres Total 484 acres Direct Oil Support Employment Three alternatives were examined with respect to employment. Alternative A 1. Platform Fabrication Yard -- An 85 acre facility which at peak operation will produce 6 platforms per year. Employment is based on the number of platforms built in a given year (250 per platform - NERBC). The schedule of platform fabrication production is based on an adjustment of NERBC's expected New England facility (high find) which would occupy 200 acres and produce 12 platforms during peak production. The result of this shows peak employment at 1,500 jobs. This may be a conservative estimate as Brown and Root has said peak employment at Davisville Piers could be as high as 2,000. 2. Platform Installation Service Base -- A 15 acre facility is planned, repre- senting one of two New England pl-atform installation service bases. Oper- ations begin in year 5 and continue for nine years. Employment is estimated at one-half of the New England employment for platform installation service bases. 3. Pipe Coating Yard -- A one hundred acre facility (or one of two such pipe coating yards expected in New England) would begin operation in year 8 and continue for seven years. Employment is estimated at one-half of all employment for all such facilities expected in New England. 4. Pipeline Installation Service Base -- A fifteen acre facility (one of two such facilities expected for New England) would begin operation in year 7, continue for eight years, and would account for one-half of New England employment in this use. B-13 5. Permanent Service Bases -- These facilities would absorb 269 acres at Quonset Point/Davisville or the balance of indicated oil support land. The 269 acres implies that 54 percent of the total 500 acres needed to serve Georges Bank alone, would occur at Quonset Point/Davisville. Employment is based on this same 54 percent. ALTERNATIVE B 1. Platform Fabrication Yard -- Same as Alternative A. 2. Platform Installation Service Base -- Same as Alternative A. 3 & 4. Pipecoating Yard and Pipeline Installation Service Base -- Not considered in this alternative. 5. Permanent Service Bases -- These facilities would absorb a total of 384 acres at Quonset Point/Davisville under this alternative or a 77 percent share of total Georges Bank activity. ALTERNATIVE C 1-4. Platform fabrication yards, platform installation service bases, pipe coating yards, and pipeline installation have not been considered in this alternative. Hence, this alternative is rather unlikely, since Brown and Root is already considering Davisville Piers for a construction facility. 5. Permanent Service Bases -- All of the land designated for oil support facilities (484 acres) is allocated to permanent service base facilities in this alternative. Here, Quonset Point/Davisville would account for virtually all the service base activity needed for Georges Bank. B-14 TOTAL OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO 11 MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK, 34X*- U00- %600- 2,400- % 2,200- % 2,000- 11800- % 1,600- 1,400- 1,200- 110001- 300- 600- 400- go a. q='* -ft. 200- T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 loll 121314 1516 17 18 19 2 OIL FACILITY MIXES AT gUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE A -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installation ervice base, pipe coating yard, pipeline installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE B -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE C -- includes permanent service bases only. @Akl@ Source: NERBC-RALI; Gladstone Associates. 0 21 22 @24 23 TOTAL OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO 11 MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK YEAR: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Alternative A Platform Fabrication Yard 500 750 1,250 1,500 1,500 1,250 t.250 1,000 1.000 1.000 Platform Installation Ser. Base 35 35 30 104 74 26 35 35 35 Pipe Coating Yard 121 95 100 35 Pipeline Ins ta Ila tfon Ser. Base 25 38 25 25 25 Permanent Ser. Bases 237 317 386 380 ..401 472 500 580 700 685 550 315 270 190 200 225 220 250 315 270 20.5 235 245 185 To ta 1 73-7 TI-7 -68-6 77-6-5 r.-6-BT T, 0-02 2. 12 9 T. -0 6-3 UO 9-6 1-,8-45 T.16-U T,-3-50 77-0 T9-1 TIT -2-9 U-0 MO 311 T70 YO K Y33 74T Tel Alternative B Platform Fabrication 500 750 1,250 1,500 1,500 1,250 L250 1,000 1,000 1.000 Platform Installation -- 35 30 105 75 25 35 35 35 Ser. Base 35 Permanent 510' 435 305 320 365 350 400 505 440 335 380 i95 295 Ser. Bases 2SO 335 405 420 495 540 940 1 130 1 110 890 T WO -4-0'6 309 W TH W W M M 73T Va IN TT75-o Z-0-25 T-1-45 T.-2-651 22'AfOT tl -i5 r.39 9 T.T4T 35 W5 0 T6 Alternative C Permanent Ser. Base 330 445 640 530 560 660 720 1,250 1,505 1,480 1,185 6so 580 410 430 485 470 535 675 585 445 510 530 395 Source: NERBC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development - Estimates for New England; Gladstone Associates. RESIDENT OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO II MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK 3,000- 2,800- 2,600- 29400-- 2XO- 2000- 11800- 1,600- 1,400- 1,200- 11000- 800- 600- 400- 00 200- -T--r -T -- 1 2 3 4 13 24 25 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 41 42 OIL FACILITY MIXES AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE A -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform r- installation service base, pipe coating yard, pipeline installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE B -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installat ervice base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE C includes permanent service bases only. Source: NERBC-RALI; Gladstone Associates. B-17 RESIDENT OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO 11 MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK YEAR: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Alternative A Platform Fabrication Yard 400 600 1.000 1.200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 Platform Installation Ser. Base - -- 21 19 69 50 18 25 - - Pipe Coating Yard 109 86 90 32 Pipeline Installation Ser. Base 17 26 18 18 19 Permanent Ser. Bases 119 162 205 213 241 297 330 395 490 495 405 235 205 145 155 180 175 200 250 215 205 190 190 145 00 M TU TOT M T;T6T T-.'Sg T,-6-9 T@W T,-M T;U9- T-.M T-.U3-5 2-OS 4" TN "8 M MU 20 29 2w M M TU Alternative 8 Platform Fabrication 400 600 1,000 1,200 1,200 1.000 1.000 800 800 800 Platform Installation Ser. Base -- -- 21 19 69 50 18 25 -- -- Permanent Ser. Bases 125 170 215 225 255 jf6 360 640 790 800 655 380 330 235 250 290 275 321 405 350 330 305 305 235 TS TX -69 -8-9 T.T7-6 1 -.912-9 1762-4 T. 6-90 1-.8-08 T@M TT4-9 T.-TS-0 TRO M T60- T9-0 T7T Iff TOT w w MT Iff 2N Alternative C Permanent Ser. Bases 165 225 285 300 335 415 475 850 1,055 1,065 875 510 440 315 335 385 375 430 540 470 440 405 405 315 Source: NERBC-RALI. Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development - Estimates for New England Gladstone Associates. DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO II -- MIXED USE-INDUSTRIAL AND OIL SUPPORT ASSUMPTIONS ON LAND AVAILABLE Davisville Piers 85 acres Area Adjacent to Davisville Piers (Navy retained) 85 acres Dogpatch Beach Area 30 acres Flightpath Area 150 acres Warehousing Area 70 acres Total 420 acres Direct Oil Support Employment Alternative A 1. Platform Fabrication Yard -- An 85 acre facility which at peak operation will produce 6 platforms per year. Although NERBC does not expect that there will be a need for a platform fabrication facility in New England under a medium find, Brown and Root has indicated continued high interest in Quonset even if only a medium find occurs. This facility is thus included, and it is assumed to be basically the same size as in the High Find Scenario. Implied here is that demand from both Georges Bank and the Mid-Atlantic would be met by the Quonset facility, and accordingly we assume that the resulting employment and number of platforms to be constructed are the same as in the High Find Scenario. 2. Platform Installation Service Bases -- A 20 acre facility is planned including all of this type of activity anticipated by NERBC for a medium find. Employ- ment estimates have been extended to years 5, 12 and 13, however, to account for the existence of a platform fabrication facility, a supposition NERBC did not make. Employment at Quonset for this type of use is greater than in the high find because this would be one medium-sized facility rather than one of two smaller facilities. f 3. Pipe Coating Yard -- This would be a one hundred acre facility and would include all of the expected demand for a medium find in the Georges Bank (NERBC). Employment and phasing are based directly on NERBC projections. 4. Pipeline Installation Service Base -- This would be a twenty acre facility or all of the demand expected for the Georges Bank per NERBC. Accordingly, projected employment follows this assumption. Again, this would be one medium- sized facility rather than one of two smaller facilities likely under the High Find. B-19 5. Permanent Service Bases -- The remaining 195 acres are designated as per- manent service bases. Peak land usage is reached quickly and continues through year 23. Employment represents approximately 65 percent of the total employ- ment for medium find. ALTERNATIVE 8 L Platform Fabrication Yard -- Same as Alternative A. 2. Platform Installation Service Base -- Same as Alternative A. 3 & 4. Pipe coating yard and pipeline installation service base -- Not considered in this alternative. 5. Permanent Service Bases -- The remaining 315 acres are assumed to be used To-F permanent service Ease facilities. Peak land usage is not reached in this alternative until year 9 due to the greater capture percentage which is implied. This would represent sligbtly-more land than for the total Georges Bank needs and accordingly implies that at least some of this acreage would be in support of Mid-Atlantic activity. It follows that employment is slightly higher than all of thetGeorges Bank activity. ALTERNATIVE C Given the heavy interest of Brown and Root and given the implied high capture of total (Georges Bank and Mid-Atlantic) service base activity, this alternative is not very likely. 1-4. Platform fabrication yard, platform installation service base, pipe coating yard, and pipeline installation service base -- not included in this alterna- tive. 5. Permanent Service Bases -- All 420 acres would be used for permanent service bases in this alternative. Employment of this aniount of land would be roughly 140 percent of Georges Bank activity. This implies that support of all of Georges Bank and much of the Mid-Atlantic would be located at Quonset. B-20 TECHNICAL APPENDIX C Direct Impacts -Background Assumptions and Information -Employment Projections -Occupational Mix -Payroll Estimates -Indirect Impacts TECHNICAL APPENDIX C. Direct and Indirect Impacts The data presented below on impact analyses is concerned with the effects of new employment generated at Quonset Point/Davisville. It does not consider existing conditions either on-site or in the surrounding communities; this latter information was contained in Appendix 1. Major Assumptions and Sources of Background Information Oil-related Uses. Our employment forecasts for petroleum-related com- ponents are keyeF-toresearch done bD the New England River Basins Commission (specifically, the NERBC-RALI report@. Quonset's share of onshore employment is linked directly to the number of rigs under production or in service for Georges Bank, while allowing.for the likelihood that some Quonset employment would be generated by the Baltimore Canyon region as well. Thus, the oil- related employment forecasts appear firm based on the following elements: 1) consistency with the NERBC approach, 2) the resulting-Quonset capture rates of oil-related on-shore activity appear achievable and 3) preliminary indi- cations from industry representatives bear out these judgements. Non-oil related. The industrial employment forecasts are based on two primary sources: Harbridge House and the Urban Land Institute. In terms of Harbridge House materials, we utilized both the published information on Target Industries and also unpublished'information on expected employment increases within Rhode Island growth industries. We used this data to determine (1) the "likely" mix of industries that would possibly locate at Quonset, and (2) the "likely" importance of one industry versus another. (The specific growth industries considered were electrical machinery, instruments, transportation equipment, machinery, fabricated metal, printing, rubber and plastics, and chemicals.) The ULI information was taken from a research report (ULI Research Report 21, Industrial Potential of the Central City) which is a prime source on iFp-ment density" in central cities and suburban areas. 11 loy Although we recognize that "employment density" averages can very consider- ably from area to area and also within broad industrial groupings, we nably be applied to determined the figures in this ULI report could reaso the Quonset situation and we, therefore, used these in combination with the mix of industries derived from Harbridge House forecasts. $1611 S4. Occupational Mix. For both oil-related industries, occupationa .A,- characteristics were derived from the NERBC-RALI report. Similarl the selected general manufacturing and technical industries, perc ,..di-- tributions for the various occupational categories were determi on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 1974 Industry-Occupational Matrix. income. Payroll estimates were made primarily by updating 1969 U. S. Census data with growth rates shown in Bureau of Labor Statistics' Area Wage Survey. In selected instances -- hotel, retail and marina -- more recent 1972 Census of Business data was updated in a similar fashion. Wherever. possible, C-1 particular attention wes given to specifically identifying base year income data and appropriate growth rates for each occupational category noted above. FAR Assumption. In addition, for purposes of this study, we assumed that industrial park facilities at Quonset would have a suburban character, consis- ting of low rise buildings and an overall low Floor Area Ratio (FAR which is the ratio of building area to land area) of 0.2. Applying the above assumptions, specific calculations are illustrated in the following tables. C-2 DIRECT IMPACTS I I I I I I I EMPLUMENT PRWECTIONS I -General Phasing -Employment Density I -Scenario III -Scenario 11 @ I -S cenario I I I I I I I I SUMMARY OF ACREAGE ABSORPTION ASSUMPTIONS QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE REUSE SCENARIO III New Acres'Absorbed Years Years Years Years Parcel 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 Total Davisville Piers 90 10 5 105 Dogpatch/Fl ightpath 16W 20 180 West Davisville 45 15 60 M ill Creek 37 12 49 Warehousing Area 30 13 27 70 Kiefer Park 25 25 78 30 98 Personnel Support Area 40 40 Revenue Producing Area 7 7 8 32 54 Golf Course Area 32 23 20 75 Total 107 329 169 126 731 All used as dead storage serving pier area. Note: Assumptions for non-oil parcels are similar in Scenario I and II to those above; oil-related parcels are keyed to NERBC-RALI report for medium and high finds. Source: Gladstone Associates C-3 SUMMARY OF'REUSE'ASSUMPTIONS QUONSET POINTIDAVISVILLE Year' Reuse Subarea Acres Reused In Scenario I Davisville Piers 85 14- Water-Oriented Industry Water-Oriented Industry Warehousing Area 30 14 Warehousing 40 24. General Industry Flightpath 60 24 Open Storage Revenue Producing Area 15 14 General Industry 9 24 General Industry Personnel Support Area 40 24 General Industry Note: - These assumptions 'reflect reuse of oil-related parcels which are phased out during the development period. Source: Gladstone Associates EMPLOYMENT DENSITY'ESTIMATES TARGET INDUSTRIES AND GENERAL MANUFACTURING QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE Building Square Footage Per Target Industry General Manufacturing Industry EmployeeY Pro@ort'ions-@/ Proportions@/ Electrical Machinery 250 75% 67% Printing 500 -- 2% Rubber and Plastics 760 -- 3% Machinery 500 5% 3% Fabricated Metals 860 -- 6% Chemicals 11000 20% 15% Glass and Stone 1,450 -- 4% Total -- 100% 100% Weighted Aver iage S.F. Requirement 410 S.F. 475 S.F. l/ For suburban industries, from ULI publication,'IndUstrial Potentials of the Central City. 2/ Based on anticipated R.I. employment growth for these industries; from unpublished Harbridge House, Inc. information. Source: Gladstone Associates C-5 EMPLOYMENT FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO III INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL LAND USE SUBAREA 1. Davisville Piers A. Years 2-6: Temporary service bases -- exploratory drilling (NERBC). B. Years 6-25: 1. Marina at Allen's Harbor -- 20 acres employing approximately 20 people. 2. Single-use water-oriented industry -- 85 acres @ 0.2 FAR and 800 S.F.Jemployee. II. Dogpatch and Flightpath Areas A. 180 acres; B. Years 6-25: Open storage at 0.6 employee/acre; a start-up of 75% is assumed in year 6 in conjunction with use of Davisville Piers. III. Warehouse Area A. 70 total acres; B. Years 1-10: "As is" warehousing use of existing buildings (320,000 S.F. @ 5,170 S.F./employee). C. Years 11-25: Continued use of prime building (175,000 S.F) for ware- housing; Technical Park in the remaining 40 acres @ 0.2 FAR and 410 S.F./ employee; an absorption of one-third of the acreage is assumed for years 10-15 and two-thirds for years 16-20. IV. Golf Course Area A. Existi.ng recreational use; 66 acres for office use; 150 room motel. B. Years 1-25: Golf Course -- 10 employees. C. Years 10-25: 150 room motel @ 0.7 employ ,ee/room, on 9 acres. D. Years 1-5: "As is" use of officer housing for office space (5,000 S.F.) @ 200 S.F./employee. E. Years 6-25: Office development @ 0.2 FAR and 200 S.F./employee; absorp- tion of increments of 40,000 S.F. per year is assumed. C-6 V. Personnel Support Area A. 40 acres are available for industrial use; this acreage does not include the Port Authority and RIANG which are also within the area. B. Years 1-25: Army National Guard and Port Authority; employment of 214. C. Years 6-25: Air National Guard employment of 205. 0. Years 11-25: Development of 40 acres for industrial use @ 0.2 FAR and 475 S.F./employee. VI. Revenue Producing Area A. 224 acres total; 170 acres presently used by Electric Boat with 30 acres for expansion. B. Years 1-25: Electric Boat and Electric Boat expansion; presently 5,000 employees. C. Years 1-25: Ocean State Training Center employment of 12. D. Years 16-25: Technical Park development of 24 acres. VII. Kiefer Park Housing Area A. 98 developable acres. B. Years 1-25: Technical Park wit h FAR of 0.2 and 410 S.F./employee. C. Assumes a phased absorption of 25, 25, 18 and 30 acres respectively for the first four five-year phases. VIII. North Mill Creek Parcel A. 49 acres for commercial and industrial development. B. Years 11-25: Shopping center development on 29 acres in two phases: Phase I consists of 150,000 S.F. beginning in year 11; Phase 2 con- sists of an additional 100,000 S.F. in year 16; assumes 300 S.F. per employee. C. Years 11-25: Technical Park with FAR of 0.2 and 410 S.F./employee, located on remaining 20 acres. IX. West Davisville Parcel A. 90 acres total;- conservatively estimate that 60 acres net are developable, due to likelihood of road construction in this area. B. Years 5-25: Single use industrial development @ 0.2 FAR, 475 S.F./ employee. 75% start-up in year 5 is assumed. C-7 m No I" sm tm im- low aw Aw ILLUSTRATIVE EMPLOYMENT -- CUMULATIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO III -- NO OIL QUO4,SET-POINT/DAVISVILLE Dog Patch Beach and Personnel Revenue North Davfsville Flightpath Warehousing Golf Course Support Producing. Kiefer Park Mill Creek West Year Piers Area Area Area Area Area Area Parcel oavisville -Total 1 40 35 214 5,232 530 6,051 2 235 40 35 214 5,232 530 6.286 3 200 40 35 214 5,232 530 6,251 4 160 60 35 214 5,232 530 6.231 5 95 80 60 35 214 5,232 530 825 7.071 6 750 80 60 210 419 5,452 1,060 825 8.856 7 770 80 60 410 419 5,452 1,060 825 9.076 8 770 80 60 610 419 5,452 1,060 825 9,276 9 770 80 60 810 419 5,452 1.060 825 9,476 10 770 95 60 1.115 419 5.452 1,060 1.100 10.071 1,315 1,155 5,672 1,440 925 11100 12,792 co, 11 770 95 .320 12 870 95 320 1,515 1.155 5.672 1,440 925 1,100 13,092 13 $70 95 320 1,715 1,155 5,672 1,440 925 1,100 13,292 14 870 95 320 1,915 1,155 5,672 1,440 925 1.100 13.492 15 870 95 320 2.115 1.155 5,672 1,440 925 1.100 13,692 16 870 105 890 2,315. 1,155 6,402 2,080 1.255 1.100 16.172 17 945 105 890 .2,515 1,155 6,402 2,080 1,255 1.100 16,447 18 945 105 890 2,715 1,155 6,402 2,080 1.255 1.100 16,647 19 945 105 890 2,915 1.155 6.402 2.080 1,255 1.100 16,847 20 945 105 890 2,990 1.155 6,402 2.080 1,255 1.100 16,922 21 945 105 890 2,990 1,155 6,402 2.080 1,265 11100 16,922 22 945 105 890 2,990 1.155 6,402 2,080 1,255 11100 16,922 23 945 105 890 2.990 1,155 6,402 2,080 1,255 1,100 16,922 24 945 105 890 2,990 1.155 6,402 2,080 1,255 1.100 16,922 25 945 105 $90 2,990 1,155 6,402 2,080 1,255 1,100 16.922 Source: Gladstone Associates EMPLOYMENT FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO II MIXED LAND USE -- MEDIUM FIND OIL SUPPORT AND COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL USE SUBAREA 1. Davisville Piers, Land Adjacent (Presently Navy-retained), Dogpatch, Flightpath, Warehousing A. Total of 420 acres. B. Years 2-25: Temporary and permanent service bases phased accordi.ng to NERBC-RALI estimates of oil production. C. Years 4-13: Platform fabrication at Davisville Piers. D. Years 5-13: Platform installation service bases. E. Years 6-25: Marina at Allen's Harbor as in Scenario III. F. Years 15-25: Re-use of Davisville at termination of Platform fabrica- ti6n; assumes single-use, voter-oriented industry as in early years of Scenario III. G. Years 14-25: Reuse of 30 acres in the Personnel Support Area; vacated by oil support activities for warehousing purposes. H. -Years 24-25: Reuse of the other 40 acres in the Personnel Support Area; vacated by oil users for general manufacturing purposes. I. Year 24-25: Reuse of 60 acres of'land in Flightpath; formerly used by permanent service bases for open storage; for similar purposes by manufacturing concerns. II. Golf Course: Same as Scenario III. III. Personnel Support Area: Same as Scenario III. IV. Revenue Producing Area: Same as Scenario III. V. Kiefer Park Area: Same as Scenario III. VI. North Mill Creek Parcel: Same as Scenario III. VII. West Davisville: Same as Scenario III. C-9 TOTAL OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO 11 MEDIUM FIND GEORGES BANK 3,000- 2,800- 2,600- 2,400- 2,200- % 2000- 11800- %% 1,600- 1,400- 1,200- 11000- 800- 600- 400- 200- T I I I I 1 2 3 4 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 42 23 24 25 OIL FACILITY MIXES AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE A -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installat ervice base, pipe coating yard, pipeline installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE B -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installat ervice base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE C includes permanent service bases only. Source: NERBC-RALI; Gladstone Associates. C-10 so wa, so 0" Nei so Oft ILLUSTRATIVE EMPLOYMENT -@- CUMLMIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO 11 -- MIXED USE QUONSET POINTIDAVISVILLE Personnel Revenue North Davisville Piers; Dog Patch Beach; Golf Course Support Producing Kiefer Park Mill Creek West Year Flightpath; and Warehousing Areas Area Area Area Area Parcel Davisville Total I -- 35 214 5,232 530 6.011 - 2 250 35 214 5,232 530 6.261 3 335 35 214 5,232 530 6.346 4 905 35 214 5,232 530 6,916 5 1,185 35 214 5,232 530 825 8,021 6 1.770 210 419 5.452 1,060 825 9.736 7 2.045 410 419 5.452 1,060 825 10.211, 8 2,165 610 419 5,452 i.060 825 10,531 9 2,285 BID 419 5,452 1.060 825 10,851 10 2.425 1,115 419 5,452 1.060 -- 1,100 11,571 C) 11 2,165 1,315 1,155 5,672 1,440 925 1.100 13.772 12 1,945 1.515 1,155 5,672 1.440 925 1,100 13.752 13 1.565 1.715 1.155 5.672 1,440 925 1,100 13.572 14 1.264 11915 1,155 5,672 1.440 925 1.100 13.471 is 1.154 2,115 1.155 5,672 1.440 925 1,100 13,561 16 1,169 2,315 1,155 6,402 2.080 1.255 11100 15,476 17 1,214 2.515 1,155 6,402 2.080 1,255 1.100 15.721 18 1.199 2.715 1,155 6,402 2,080 1.255 1,100 15,906 19 1.249 2.915 1,155 6,402 2,080 1,255 1.100 16,156 20 1.454 2,990 1.155 '6,402 2.080 1.255 1,100 16.436 21 1.389 2.990 1,155 6.402 2.080 1,255 1,100 16,371 22 1,284 2.990 1,155 6,402 2.080 1,255 1,100 16.266 23 1.329 2.990 1,155 6,402 2,080 1,255 11100 16,311 24 2.119 2.990 1.155 6,402 2,080 11255 11100 17.101 25 2,074 2,990 1,155 6,402 2.080 1,255 11100 17,056 Source: Gladstone Associates EMPLOYMENT FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I HIGH FIND OIL RELATED USE SUBAREA I. Davisville Piers, Land Adjacent (Presently Navy-retained), Dogpatch. Flightpath, Warehousing plus the Personnel Support Area (40 acres) and a portion of the Revenue Producing Area (24 acres). A. Total of 484 acres. B. Years 2-25: Temporary and permanent service bases phased according to NERBC-RALI estimates of oil production. C. Years 4-13: Platform fabrication at Davisville. D. Years 5-13: Platform installation service bases. E. Years 6-25: Marina at Allen's Harbor as in Scenario III. F. Years 15-25: Re-use of Davisville at termination of platform fabrication; assumes si.ngle use water-oriented industry as in early years of Scenario III. G. Years 24-25: Re-use of 40 4cries'of-Personnel,.Support Area; vacated by permanent service bases for general manufacturing purposes. II. Golf Course Area: Same as in Scenario III. III. Revenue Producing Area A. Portions (24.acres) used for oil-related firms as mentioned above. B. Balance remains the same as in Scenario Ill. C. Years 14-24: Re-use of 14 acres of former oil land for general manufacturing purposes. D. Years 24-25: Re-use of an additional 9 acres vacated in year 23 by permanent service bases. IV. Kiefer Park Area: Same as in Scenario III. V. North Mill Creek Parcel: Same as in Scenario 111. VI. West Davisville: Same as in Scenario Ill. C-12 TOTAL OIL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I HIGH FIND GEORGES BANK 3,000-- %600- 2,400- 2,200- % 1000- 1,800- 1,600- 1,400- A 1,200- \1% 11000- % 800- % 600- 400- 1 2 3 4 ig 2o 21 12 26 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 24 OIL FACILITY MIXES AT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE ALTERNATIVE A -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installaiion service base, pipe coating yard, pipeline Installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE B -- includes platform fabrication yard, platform installation service base, and permanent service bases. ALTERNATIVE C includes permanent service bases only. Source: NERBC-RALI; Gladstone Associates. C-13 m am, so, low low Ow m No I" Mw *a aw so aw "WI an ILLUSTRATIVE EMPLOYMENT CUM)LATIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO I -- HIGH FIND OIL SUPPORT QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE Personnel Revenue North Davisville Piers; Dog Patch Beach; Golf Course Support Producing Kiefer Park Hill Creek West Year Flightpathl and Warehousing Areas Area Area Area Area Parcel Davisville Total I -- 35 214 5,232 530 6.011 2 160 35 214 5,232 530 6.171 3 200 35 214 5.232 530 6,211 4 810 35 254 5.252 530 6.881 5 1,075 35 254 5.252 530 825 7.971 6 1,725 210 474 5,282 1.060 825 9.576 7 2.130 410 494 5,497 1,060 82S 10.416 8 2.405 610 524 5.517 1,060 82S 10,941 9 2.220 810 529 5.522 1.060 825 10,966 10 2.335 1,115 .549 5,527 1,060 1,100 11.686 11 2,185 1.315 559 5.757 1,440 925 1.100 13.281 12 2.170 1.51S 559 5.757 1,440 925 1,100 13,466 13 2.160 1.715 559 5,757 .1,440 925 11100 13.656 14 11800 1.915 544 5,977 1.440 925 1,100 13,701 15 1.605 2,115 519 5.967 1,440 925 1.100 13.671 16 1,450 2.315 499 6.182 2,080 1.255 1,100 14,881 17 1.325 2,515 479 6,182 2,080 1,255 11100 14.936 18 1,355 2,715 489 6,182 2.080 1,255 1.100 15.176 19 1.355 2.915 484 6,182 2,080 1.255 11100 15.371 20 1,480 2,990 489 6,182 2.080 1,255 1,100 15.576 21 .1. .495 2.990 489 6,182 2,080 1,255 11100 15,591 22 1,445 2,990 484 6,182 2,080 1,255 11100 15.536 23 1,380 2,990 479 6.182 2,080 1.255- 11100 15.466 24 1,400 2,990 1.154 6,332 2,080 1.255 11100 16.311 25 1,380 2,990 1,154 6,332 2,080 1.255 1.100 16.291 Source: Gladstone Associates an. No, low so owl no so 00 on am PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT QUONSET POINT INDUSTRIES 1976, YEAR 10, YEAR 25 Scenario I Scenario 11 Scenario III 1976 Year 10 Year 25 1976 Year 10 Year 25 1976 Year 10 Year Existing_ Usesy Electric Boat 5,035 5.440 5.880 5,035 5,440 5,880 5,035 5.440 5,990 Port AuthoritY 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 Ocean State Training Center 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 F.A.A. 58 59 58 56 58 58 56 58 58 Golf Course 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Army National Guard 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Cl) Subtotal 5,271 @.675 6,116 5,271 5,676. 6,116 51271 5.676 6.116 (.n ProJected Uses Marina 20 20 20 20 20 20 Shopping Center -- 830 -- 830 -- 830 Hotel 105 105 105 105 105 105 Air National Guard 205 205 205 205 205 205 Office Park 1.000 2.875 11000 2,875 1.000 2.875 General Manufacturing/ Technical Industr, 2,160 5,705 2,160 6,610 3,065 6.770 Platform Fabricati 1,250 -- 1,250 -- -- M@ - 295 Service Bases 1,270 435 1.155 Subtotal 6.010 10,175 5.895 10,940 4.395 10.805 Total All Uses 271 11,686 16.291 7,271 11.571 17.056 5,271 10.071 16,921 I/ With the exception of I trfc attempt has been made to predict expansion by existing users. Source: Gladstone Associates Vo I I I I I I I I I j OCCUPATIONAL MIX I I I I 'I I I I 'I I a" me! M go No low. so on occuPATIONAL MIX OF EMPLOYEES ELECTRIC 90AT 1976, Year 10, Year 25 1976 Occupation Number Percent Year 10 Year 25 Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative, and Sales Workers 591 12% 655 705 Clerical and Kindred Workers 254 5% 270 295 Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 2,284 45% 2,450 2,645 Operatives, including Transport 1,864 37% 2,010 2,175 Service Workers Laborers 42 1% 55 60 Total 5,035 100% 5,440 5,880 Note: Includes allowance for Electric Boat expansion on 30 acres adjacent to present'facilities. Source: Communication with Mr. James E, Kanaley, Manager Industrial Relations. Electric Boat; Gladstone Associates. OCCUPATIONAL MIX OF EMPLOYEES QUONSET POINT SHOPPING CENTER YEARS 10, 25 Percent Year 10 Year 25 Professional, Technical, and Kindred Workers 3.0% 25 Managers and Administrators 17.5% 145 Sales Workers 30.7% 255 Clerical and Kindred Workers 23.5% 195 Craftsmen, Foremen, etc. 4.8% 40 Operatives, including Transport 7.2% 60 Service Workers 4.2% 35 Laborers 9.1% 75 Total 100.0% 830 Note: The first phase of the shopping center is assumed to begin in Year 11. Source: Gladstone Associates C-17 OCCUPATIONAL MIX OF EMPLOYEES QUONSET POINT HOTEL YEARS 10, 25 Occupation Percent Year 10 Year 25 Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative, and Sales Workers 19% 20 20 Clerical and Kindred, Workers 14 % 15 15 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers 5% 5 5 Operatives, including Transport -- -- Service Workers 62% 65 65 Laborers -- -- -- Total 100% 105 105 Source: Gladstone Associates. C-18 OCCUPATIONAL MIX OF EMPLOYEES QUONSET POINT OFFICE PARK YEARS 10t 25 Occupation Percent Year 10 Year 25 Professional,Technical, Managerial, Adminis- 75% 965 2,155 trative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 25% 325 720 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers Operatives, including Transport Service Workers Laborers Total 100% 1,290 2,875 Source: Gladstone Associates. C-19 OCCUPATIONAL-MIX OF EMPLOYEES QUONSET POINT GENERAL@MANUFACTURING AND TECHNICAL INDUSTRIES YEARS 10, 25 Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Occupation Percent Year 10 Year 25 Year 10 Year 25 Year 10 Year 29' Professional, Technical, Managerial, 18% 390 1,025 390 11190 550 1,220 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 12% 260 685 260 795 370 810 Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred 19% 410 11085 410 1,255 585 1,285 Workers Operatives, including Transport 46% 995 2,625 995 3,040 1,410 3,115 Service Workers 2% 40 115 40 130 60 135 Laborers 3% 65 170 65 200 90 205 Total 100% 2,160 5,705 2,160 6,610 3,065 6,770 Source: Gladstone Associates. OCCUPATIONAL MIX OF EMPLOYEES QUONSET_POINT OIL SUPPORT FACILITIES YEARS 10,-25 Platform Service Bases I/ Fabrication Yard M@d um find High Find Year 10 Percent Number Percent NuWer Percent Number Professional and Administrative 17% 210 7% 80 7% 90 Skilled Workers 78% 980 30% 345 -30%.- 380 Unskilled Workers 5% 60 63% 730 63% 800 Total 100% 1,250 100% 1,155 100% 1,270 Year 25 Professional and Administrative 7% 20 7% 30 30% 90 30% 130 Skilled Workers Unskilled Workers 63% 185 63% 275 100% 295 100% 435 Total Includes a Platform Fabrication Service Base. Industry Requirements; Gladstone Associates. source: Frederic R. Harris, Inc., OCS Methodology Element #1: SUMMARY OF NON-OIL RELATED JOBS BY OCCUPATIONAL LEVEL QUONSET POINT/DAVISVILLE YEAR 25 New Non-Oil Employees I/ Occupational Level. Number Percent Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative and Sales Workers 3,750 32% Clerical and Kindred Workers 2,070 18% Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 1,780 15% Operatives, Including Transport 3,490 30% Service Workers 240 2% Laborers 320 _3% Total 11,650 100% )J Does not include existing or expected oil-related users. Does include Electric Boat expansion. Note: The above estimates reflect projections for Scenario III, but the proportions would remain relatively constant for the other scenarios as well. Source': Gladstone Associates C-22 OCCUPATIONAL MIX PROJECTED QUONSET-DAVISVILLE USES YEAR 25 General Office Shopping Manufacturing/ Air National Occupation Hotel Park Center Marina. Technical Guard Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative, and Sales Workers 19% 75% 51% 15% 18% 35% Clerical and Kindred Workers 14% 25% 24% -- 12% 18% Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 5% -- 5% 10% 19% 45% Operatives, including Transport -- 7% -- 46% -- Service Workers 62t 4% -- 2% Laborers 9% 75% 3% 2% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Industry Occupational Matrix, 1974; Gladstone Associates PAYROLL ESTIMATES PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL ELECTRIC BOAT YEAR 25 Employees Estimated Total Payroll Occupation Total Percent Annual Sal @a (Mil 1 ions) Professional, Technicali Managerial, Administrative, and Sales Workers 705 12% N/A N/A Clerical and Kindred Workers 295 5% $ 8,600 $ 2.537 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers 2,645 45% N/A NIA Operatives, including Transport 2,175 37% NIA NIA Al. Service Workers -- -- Laborers 60 @1% N/A N/A Total 5,880 100% $10,800 @63.4003J I/ Calculated by multiplying 1976 payroll by the percent increase in employees.' N/A = Not Available. Source: Communication with Mr. James E. Kanaley, Manager Industrial Relations, Electric Boat; Gladstone Associates. EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL-!/ QUONSET-POINT MARINA YEAR 25 @-/ Estimated Total Employees Annual Payroll Occupation Number ..Percent Salary (Millions) Professional, Technical, Managerial, 3 15% N/A N/A Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers -- -- Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Workers 2 10% N/A N/A Operatives, Including Transport -- -- Service Workers -- -- Laborers 15 75% N/A N/A 3/ Total 20 100% $9,ooo7 $.180 l/ Estimates by Gladstone Associates. 2/ Employment and payroll by the Marina are assumed to be the same in years 10 and 25 .11 This figure is assumed here to be the same as the estimate for Golf Course employees. H/A = Not Available. Source: Gladstone Associates. C-25 ESTIMATED ANNUAL SALARIES QUONSET POINT SHOPPING CENTER EMPLOYEES 1969, 1976 Estimated Change2/ Occupation 1969Y 1969-1976 - 1976Y Professional, Technical, and Kindred Workers $ 8,960 59.6% $14,300 Managers and Administrators $10,680 59.6% $17,000 Sales Workers $ 4,950 62.1% $ 8,000 Clerical and Kindred Workers $ 5,390 54.6% $ 8,300 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers $ 7,870 59.6% $12,600 Operatives, including Transport $ 6,970 62.1% $11,300 Cn Service Workers $ 5,050 62.1% $ 8,200 Laborers $ 5,750 62.1% $ 9,300 jj Figures are from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population and are for the State of Rhode Island. The'estimated change figures are from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Area Wage Survey for the Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket, Rhode Island- Massachusetts Metropolitan Area. The figure 54.6% is the compounded percent change in average hourly earnings for office clerical employees. The 59 6% fi?ure is for skilled maintenance trades (men), and the 62.1% figure is for unskilled plant- worker@ (men . 1976 figures are estimates calculated by updating 1970 census figures by the above mentioned percentages. The salary figure for sales workers is for sales clerks (retail trade) in'd tailesmen (retail trade) from the census. Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Providence Warwick -Pawtucket, Rhode Island -Massachusetts Metropolitan Area Wage Survey; Gladstone Associates. MMMMM PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL QUONSET.POINT SHOPPING CENTER YEAR 25, Employees Estimated Total Payroll Occupation er Percent Average Salary (Millions) Professional, Technical, and Kindred Workers 25 3.0% $ 14,300 $ .357 Managers and Administrators 145 17.5% $ 17,000 $2.465 Sales Workers 255 30.7% $ 8,000 $2.040 Clerical and Kindred Workers 195 23.5% $ 8,300 $1.618 Craftsmen, Foremen,,and Kindred 14 Workers 40 4.8% $ 12,600 $ .504 Operatives, including Transport 60 7.2% $ 11,300 $ .678 Service Workers 35 4.2% $ 8,200 $ .287 Laborers 75 9.1% $ 9,300 $ .698 Total 830 100.0% $-10,400 $8.647 Source: Gladstone Associates. mmmmmmmm MM mom mm@ M M M ESTIMATED ANNUAL SALARIES QUONSET POINT HOTEL EMPLOYEES 1969, 1976 Estimated ChangeV Occupation 1969 1969-1976 1976 Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative, and Sales Workers $8,340 59.6% $13,300 Clerical and Kindred Workers $5,390 54.6% $ 8,300 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers $7,870 59.6% $12,600 co Operatives, including Tr"ort $6,970 62.1% $11,300 $5,050 62.1% $ 8,200 Service Workers ZVIE Laborers $5 750 62.1% $ 9,300 421, Figures are from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population and are for the State of Rhode Island. The estimated change figures are from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Area Wage Survey for the Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket, Rhode Island - Massachusetts, Metropolitan Area. The figure 54.6% is the compounded percent change in average hourly earnings for office clerical employees. The 59.6% figure is for skilled maintenance trades (men), and the 62.1% figure is for unskilled plant- workers (men). 1976 figures are estimateg calculated by updating 1970 Census figures by the above mentioned percentages. Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970;.U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket, Rhode Island - Massachusetts Metropolitan Area Wage Survey; Gladstone Associates. M mom MM w mm M M PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL QUONSET POINT HOTEL YEAR 25 1% Employees Estimated Total Payroll Occupation Percent Number Annual Salary (Millions) Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative and Sales Workers 19% 20 $13,300 $.266 Clerical and Kindred Workers 14% 15 $ 8,300 $.125 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers 5% 5 $12,600 $-063 Operatives, including Transport -- -- $11,300 -- Service Workers 62% 65 $ 5,800 $-377 Laborers -- -- $ 9,300 -- Total 100% 105 $ 7,900 $.831 Source: Gladstone Associates. PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL R[iODE ISLAND AIR NATIONAL GUARD YEAR 25 Empl2yees Average Total Payroll Occupation Number Percent Annual SalarY (Millions) Professional, Technical, Managerial, Administrative, and Sales Workers 71 34.6% $ 16,760 $1.190 Clerical and Kindred Workers 37 18.1% $ 10,555 $ .391 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers 92 44.9% $ 12,155 $1.118 Operatives, including Transport -- -- -- -- Service Workers -- -- -- Laborers 5 @@@'2'4% $ 9,245 $ .046 Total 205 100.0% $ 13,390 $2.745 Source: Communication with Colonel Jenkins, Commander Rhode Island Air National Guard; Gladstone Associates. ESTIMATED ANNUAL SALARIES QUONSET POINT OFFICE PARK 1969, 1976 Estimated Change-/ Occupation 19691/ 1969-1976 1976-/ Professional, Techni-cal, Managerial,i/ $9,560 59.6% $15,200 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers $5,390 54.6% $ 8,300 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred Workers $7,870 59.6% $12,600 Operatives, including Transport $6,970 62.1% $11,300 Service Workers $5,050 62.1% $ 8,200 Laborers $5,750 62.1% $ 9,300 L/ Figures are from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population and are for the State of Rhode Island. 2/ The estimated change figures are from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Area Wage Survey for the Providence - Warwick - Pawtucket, Rhode Island - Massachusetts Metropolitan Area. The figure 54.6 percent is the compounded percent change in average hourly earnings for office clerical employees. The 59.6 percent figure is for skilled maintenance trades (men), and the 62.1 percent figure is for unskilled plant workers (men). 3/ 1976 figures are estimates calculated by updating 1970 census figures by the above-mentioned percentages. @4/ The salary figure given here is for professional, technical, managerial, and administrative workers ohly. Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Providence - Warwick - Pawtucket, Rhode Island - Massachusetts Metropolitan Area Wage Survey; Gladstone Associates. C-31 PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL QUONSET POINT OFFICE PARK YEAR 25 Employees Estimated Total Payroll' Occupation Number Percent Average__Salary (Millions) Professional,Technical, Managerial, 2,155 75% $15,200 $32-756 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 720 25% $ 8,300 $ 5.976 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred -- $12,600 -- Workers Operatives, including Transport $11,300 Service Workers $ 5,800 Laborers $ 9,300 Total 2,875 100% $13,500 $38.-732 Source: Gladstone Associates. C-32 ESTIMATED ANNUAL SALARIES QUONSET POINT GENERAL MANUFACTURING/TECHNICAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYEES 1969, 1976 g.L/ Estimated ChangeV Occupation 196 1969-1976 19762J/ Professional.Technical, Managerial, $8,340 59.6% $13,300 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers $5,390 54.6% $ 8,300 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred $7,870 59.6% $12,600 Workers Operatives, including Transport $6,970 62.1% $11,300 Service Workers $5,050 62.1% $ 8,200 Laborers $5,750 62.1% $ 9,300 Figures are from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population and are for the@ state of Rhode Island. 2/ The estimated change figures are from the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Area Wage Survey for the Providence- Warwick-Pawtucket, Rhode Island - Massachusetts, Metropolitan Area. The figure 54.6% is the compounded percent change in average hourly earnings for office clerical employees. The 59.6% figure is for skilled maintenance trades (men), and the 62.1 percent figure is for unskilled plant workers (men). 3/ 1976 figures are estimates calculated by updating 1970 census figures by the above-mentioned percentages. Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1976 Providence - Warwick Pawtucket, Rhode Island - Massachusetts Metropolitan Area Wage Survey; Gladstone Associates. C-33 PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLY QUONSET POINT GENERAL MANUFACTURING/1"ECHNICAL INDUSTRIES SCENARIO III - NO OIL YEAR 25 Employees Estimated Total Payroll Occupation Number Percent Average Salart _CMillionsL- Professional,Technical,Ma nagerial, 1,220 18% $13,300 $16.226 Administrative, and Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers 810 12% $ 8,300 $ 6.723 Craftsmen, Foremen, and Kindred 1,285 19% $12,600 $16.191 Workers Operatives, including Transport 3,115 46% $11,300 $35.200 Service Workers 135 2% $ 8,200 $ 1.107 Laborers 205 3% $ 9,300 $ 1.906 Total 6,770 100% $11,400 $77.353 l/ Does not include Electric Boat expansion. Source: Gladstone Associates. C-34 No PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL QUONSET POINT OIL SUPPORT FACILITIES YEAR 10 AND YEAR 95 Scenario I Total Scenario 11 To-fail- Average @ayroll Average Payroll Year 10 Employees Salary (Millions) Employees SajArj_ (milliRnsi Platform Fabrication Yard 1,250 $19,000 $23.750 1,250 $19,000 $23.750 Service Bases 1,270 $17,000 $21.590 1,155 $17,000 $19.635 Total 2,520 $18,000 $45.340 2,405 $18,000 $43.385 Year 25 -- -- -- $19,000 -- Platform Fabrication Yard $19,000 Service Bases 435 $17,000 $ 7,395 295 $17,000 $ 5.015 Total 435 $17,000 $ 7.395- 295 $17,000 $ 5,015 Source: NERBC-RALI, onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development: Estimates for New England; G! dstone Associates.-- PROJECT6 PAYROLY. qUONSET POINT INDUSTRIES 1976i;YEAR 10, YEAR 25 (In Millions of 1976 Dollars) Scenario I Scenario 11 Scenario III 1976 Year 10 Year-N 1976 Year 10 Year 25 1976 Year 10 Year Existing-Usesy Electric Boat $54.3 $58.7 $63.4 $54.3 $58.7 $63.4 $54.3 $58.7 $63.4 Port Authority $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 S 1.3 S 1.3 Ocean State Training Center $ .1 $ .1 $ .1 S .1 $ .1 $ I $ .1 S .1 $ .1 F.A.A. $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 S 1.3 $ 1.3 S 1.3 S 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 Golf Course $ .1 $ .1 $ .1 $ .1 $ .1 $ .1 $ .1 $ I $ .1 Amy national Guard $ .8 $ .8 .8 .8 $ .8 S .8 .8 $ .8 $ .8 Subtotal $57.9 $62.3 $67.0 $57.9 $62.3 $67.0 $57.9 $62.3 $67.0 ProJected Uses P.3rina $ .2 .2 .2 .2 $ 8.6 -- 8.6 -- S 8.6 Shopping Center .8 .8 $ .8 $ .8 .8 $ .8 Pocel Air National Guard 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 2.7 $ 2.7 $17.4 $38.7 $17.4 $38.7 $17.4 138.7 Office Park General Manufacturing/ Technical Industries $24.7 $65.2 $24.7 $75.5 $35.0 $77.4 Ptatform Fabrication Yard $23.8 -- $23.8 -- -- Service Bases $21.6 $ 7.4 $19.6 $ 5.0 Subtotal $91.2 $123.6 $89.2 '-$131 . 5 S56.1 $128.4 Total All Uses S57.9 $153.5 $190.6 $57.9 $151.5 $198.5 $57.9 $118.4 $195.4 I/ No attempt has been made to adjust payroll figures for years 10 and 25 to account for inflation and/or real gains in earnings. 2/. With the exception of Electric Boat, no attempt has been made to predict expansion by existing users. Source, Existing users; NERSC-RALI, Onshore Facilities Related to Offshore Oil and Gas Development: Estimates for New England Gladstone Associates. INDIRECT IMPACTS Ilk 114 MR, COMMUTATION PATTERNS ELECTRIC BOAT EMPLOYEES 1975 Place of Residence Number Percent West Bay North Kingstown 26 13.3% South Kingstown 6 3.1% Narragansett 0 0.0% Exeter 0 0.0% Jamestown 2 1.0% New Shoreham 0 0.0% Subtotal 34 17.4% Kent County Warwick 17 8.7% East Greenwich 3 1.5% West Warwick 22 11.3% Coventry 15 7.7% West Greenwich 0 0.0% Subtotal, 57 29.2% Urban Center Pawtucket 8 4.1% North Providence 1 0.5% East Providence 8 4.1% Providence 17 8.7% Central Falls 1 0.5% Johnston 6 3.1% Cranston 14 7.2% Subtotal 55 28.2% Balance'-/ 49 25*. 1 % Total 195 100.0% l/ Includes commuters from cities and towns from other sections of Rhode Island and from Massachusetts. Source: R. I. Department of Transportation; Gladstone Associates. C-37 COMMUTATION PATTERNS BIF EMPLOYEES 1974 Place of Residence Number Percent West Bay North Kingstown 8 2.1% South Kingstown 2 0.5% Narragansett 1 0.3% Exeter 0 0.0% Jamestown 0 0.0% New Shoreham 0 0.0% Subtotal 11 2.9%- Kent CounjX Warwick 42 11.0% East Greenwich 22 5.8% West Warwick 16 4.2% Coventry 21 5.5% West Greenwich 1 0.3% Subtotal 102 26.8% Urban Center Pawtucket 20 5.2% North Providence 21 5.5% East Providence 15 3.9% Providence 86 22.6% Central Falls 1 0.3% Johnston 14 3.7% Cranston 39 10.2% Subtotal 196 51.4% BalanceY 72 -18.9% Total 381 100.0% jj Includes commuters from cities and towns from other sections of Rhode Island and from Massachusetts. Source.- R..I.'Departffient of Transportation; Gladstone Associates. C-38 COMMUTATION PATTERNS LEESONA CORPORATION EMPLOYEES 1974 Place of Residence Number Percent West Bay North Kingstown 26 4.6% South Kingstown 3 0.5% Narragansett 5 0.9% Exeter 1 0.2% Jamestown 1 0.2% New Shoreham 0 0.0% Subtotal 36 6.3% Kent County Warwick 226 39.7% East Greenwich 21 3.7% West Warwick 26 4.6% Coventry 24 4.2% West Greenwich 1 0.2% Subtotal 298 52.4% Urban Center Pawtucket 9 1.6% North Providence 13 2.3% East Providence 10 1.8% Providence 57 10.0% Central Falls 1 0.2% Johnston 13 2.3%' Cranston 78 13.7% Subtotal 181 31.8% Ba 1 a nc ell 54 9.5% Total 569 100.0% Includes commuters from cities and towns from other sections of Rhode Island and from Massachusetts. Source: R. I. Department of Transportation; Gladstone Associates. C-39 COMMUTATION PATTERNS LEVITON EMPLOYEES 1974 Place of Residence Number Percent West Bay North Kingstown 17 3.6% South Kingstown 3 0.6% Narragansett 1 0.2% Exeter 0 0.0% Jamestown 0 0.0% New Shoreham 0 0.0% Subtotal 21 4.4% Kent County Warwick 191 40.0% East Greenwich 10 2.1% West Warwick 106 22.2% Coventry 35 7.3% West Greenwich 5 1.1% Subtotal 347 72.8% Urban Center A IX Pawtucket 5 1.1% North Providence 5 1.1% East Providence 4 0.8% Providence 30 6.3% Central Falls 1 0 2% Johnston 5 1:1% Cranston 36 7.5% Subtotal 86 18.0% BalanceY 23 4.8% Total 477 100.0% jj Includes commuters from cities and towns from other sections of Rhode Island and from Massachusetts. Source:@ R. I. Department of Transportation; Gladstone Associates. C-40 COMMUTATION PATTERNS APEX EMPLOYEES 1974 Place of Residence Number Percent West Bay North Kingstown 1 3.6% South Kingstown 0 0.0% Narragansett 0 0.0% Exeter 0 0.0% Jamestown 0 0.0% New Shoreham 0 0.0% Subtotal 1 3.6% Kent County Warwick 15 53.6% East Greenwich 1 3.6% West Warwick 3 10.7% Coventry 3 10.7% West Greenwich 0 0.0% Subtotal 22 78.6% Urban Center Pawtucket 0 0.0% North Providence 0 0.0% East Providence 0 0.0% Providence 0 0.0% Central Falls 0 0.0% Johnston 0 0,0% Cranston 2 7:1% Subtotal 2 7.1% BalanceY 3 -10.7% Total 28 100.0% Includes commuters from cities and towns from other sections of Rhode Island and from Massachusetts. Source: R. I. Department of Transportation; Gladstone Associates. C-41 ESTIKATED PER CAPITA USER CHARGES TOWN OF NORTH KINGSTOWN YEAR ENDING JUNE 30, 1977 General School Fund Fund Local Expenditures (000's).11 $2,323,441 $3,595,571 Average Daily Users 31,8002/ 4,417 Per Capita Charge $ 73 $ 1,518 I/ Does not include federal and state contributions such as revenue sharing. 2/ Includes estimates for resident population and employment in North Kingstown. Source: North Ki.ngstown Budget Data; Gladstone Associates. C-42 COMPARATIVE PER PUPIL'SCHOOL COSTS SELECTED WEST BAY COMMUNITIES 1975-1976 Operating Number Total Expenditure Expendit res ('000's)Y Of Pupils Per Pupi ljj North Kingstown $6,706 4,417 $1,51-8 South Kingstown $4,567 2,858 $1,598 Narragansett $1,726 1,118 $1, 544 Jamestown $ 538 436 $1,234 Resident expenditures only; does not include federal or state contributions. Source: Statistical Tables, 1975-1976, R.I. Department of Education, December, 1976. C-43 TECHNICAL APPENDIX D REVIEW OF MAJOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS - Tax Incentives - Financing Mechanisms - Manpower Training Programs TECHNICAL APPENDIX D REVIEW OF MAJOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS A final task in providing a socio-economic assessment for the reuse of Quonset Point/Davisville was a broad evaluation of the state's economic development programs. The intent here was to point up any glaring deficiencies which might adversely affect the marketability of the property or the recruit- ment effort. For purposes of this analysis, economic development mechanisms have been grouped into three main categories: (1) tax incentives; (2) training programs; (3) financing mechanisms. Each of these categories are important in assisting the state to both attract new industry to Rhode Island as well as retain existing firms. These programs reflect the development climate for industry in Rhode Island and are dis cussed more fully below. Tax Incentives In 1974, a series of tax reforms were passed, placing Rhode Island in a better competitive position to attract new industry. The new legislation covered the following tax provisions: Manufacturers' machinery and equipment purchased after December 31, 1974 are exempt from local property taxation; similar tax levies on existing machinery and equipment will be phased out over a ten year period; Sales taxes on manufacturers' machinery and equipment -- at five percent in 1974 -- would be phased out over a five year period; A one year write-off would be available for expenditures on new research and development facilities, in lieu of depreciation or investment tax credit; A two percent investment tax credit for purchases of depreciable tangible property was established, including carry forward provisions for unused credit up to seven years; D-1 Carry back and carry forward provisions for net operating losses are now allowed in computing a corporation's taxable income, bring- ing the state's policy essentially in line with federal law; Other reforms include definitions -- for tax purposes -- of Domestic International Sales Corporations, a net worth tax in place of a corporate excess tax and income allocation factors for companies with multi-state operations; all of these tend to reduce qualified corporations' Rhode Island state tax liability. In sum, the tax reform package has improved the tax environment of Rhode Island compared to many of the surrounding northeastern states (such as Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey). With respect to reuse opportunities at Quonset Point/Davisville, this tax climate should be a useful tool in the state's industrial recruitment effort. Financing Mechanisms Rhode Island has two primary financing plans to assist new industrial development in'the state. These are the Guaranteed Mortgage Financing Plan and the Revenue Bond Financing Plan. Both are aimed at providing lower cost financing to industrial concerns than would be available through the conventional market. The Guaranteed Mortgage Financing Plan enables a firm to obtain a state- backed guarantee on the repayment of a first mortgage, thereby reducing investor risk and accordingly the interest rate charged. Firms eligible for this guarantee must meet certain financial soundness criteria but can use the proceeds to finance up to 90 percent of project costs for new facilities (both land and buildings) or up to 80 percent of the cost of new machinery or equipment. Rhode Island also has a Revenue Bond Financing Plan which can be used for industrial construction, equipment, machinery and pollution abatement devices. The principal feature of this plan is similar to the one above, namely to secure lower cost debt through a quasi-public entity. Simply stated, because a company receives proceeds of tax exempt bonds, interest rates are lower than would be the case under conventional debt issues. D-2 On balance, these two mechanisms represent a more or less standard approach in publicly supported efforts to attract new industry. Conversely, if these mechanisms were not available, their absence would represent a definite weakness in the state's economic development program. In the case of Quonset Point/Davisville, these two mechanisms will likely be important in DED's attempts to recruit major new industrial companies. Manpower Training Programs Rhode Island -- through the Manpower Affairs Division of the Department of Economic Development and through several vocational/technical schools -- offers a number of flexible job training programs to meet the-needs of particular employers. Training is accomplished "on the job," in the classroom,.or as a combination of the two. Financial support is given for all major training expenses, including rent and utility costs in the training facility, equipment, textbooks, supplies, materials, and instructors' salaries. A prime example of the working relationship between business and governm ent is the Ocean State Training School at Quonset Point. Through this facility, Electric Boat has developed a trained work force of more than 3,500 men and women for welding, shipfitting, pipefitting, and other.machine operations at its Quonset Point facility. On balance, in the.absence of a specific industry mix or concrete require- ments to attract a particular-industrial operation, mechanisms within the above three economic development areas appear sufficient for Rhode Island's industrial recruitment effort. The only recommendations here*go to insuring: (1) that these programs are adequately publicized and (2) that over time, they remain flexible enough to meet changing economic development conditions. D-3 COMPLETIONS OF SELECTED VOCATIONAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 Program Completions Agriculture 232 Distribution 488 Health 665 Consumer/Homemaker' 69 Office 2,043 Technical 168 Trades and Industry 1,456 Total 5,121 Source Rhode Island Department of Education. D-4 ENROLLMENTS IN AREA VOCATIONAL-TECHNICAL FACILITIES THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 Facility Enrollments Secondary Level Chariho Regional Facility 357 Coventry Area Facility 615 ..Rogers High School Area Facility 317 William M. Davies, Jr. Facility 671 Hanley Educational Center Facility 614 East ProvidenceArea Facility 815 Warwick Area Facility 389 Cranston Area Facility 361 Woonsocket Area Facility 272 Subtotal 4,411 Post Secondary Level Rhode Island Junior College 2,929 University of Rhode Island 640 Rhode Island College 800 Subtotal 4,369 Specific Job-Training Ocean State Training Center .1,000 Total 9,780 Source: Rhode Island Department of Education; Ocean.State Training Center. D-5 ENROLLMENTS IN SELECTED VOCATIONAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND 1976 Post --Program_ Secondary Secondary Adult '_Cooperative Total Agriculture 757 -- 47 117 921 Distribution 1,480 176 282 727 2,665 Health 268 927 458 15 1,668 Consumer/Homemaker 229 178 313 40 760 Office 5,869 482 1,880 327 8,558 Technical 188 941 733 -- 1,862 Trades and Industry 4,409 -- 2,411 230 7,050 Total 13,200 2,704 6,124 1,456 23,484 Source: Rhode Island Department o f Education; Gladstone Associates. D-6 6668 141 3 56A