Economic base study of Pacific County

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

Coa SU Zone
Information
Center

FINAL ECONOMIC BASE STUDY
FOR
PACIFIC COUNTY

AUG 15 1977

Prepared By
Human Resources Planning Institute

Prepared For

PORT OF WILLAPA HARBOR
-VRAYMOND, WASHINGTON

HC.
108
P32
E36
1977

February, 1977

Human Resources Planning Institute
401 MARITIME BLDG. SEATTLE, WASH. 98104 (206) 622-1380

:Property of CGC Library

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA
COASTAL SERVICES CENTER
2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE
CHARLESTON, SC 29405-2413

ECONOMIC BASE STUDY

PACIFIC COUNTY

Prepared By

HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE

Prepared For

PORT OF WILLAPA HARBOR
RAYMOND, WASHINGTON

"The preparation of this report.was financially aided
through a grant from the Washington State Department of
Ecology with funds obtained from the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, and appropriated for
section 306 of the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972.
The preparation of this report was also financially
aided by the Washington State Department of Commerce
and Economic Development."

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ............................................... * ............ 1

Purpose .....................................................

Scope ............................................................. I

Overview of the Study Area ......................................... 2

TOTAL POPULATION ....................................................... 3

Age ......................................... ...................... 3

Sex ............................................................... 5

Race .............................................................. 6

Income ............................................................ 6

Population Projections ............................................ 12

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT ....................................................... 15

Employment by Industry ....................... I ..................... 15
Occupations of Employed Persons .................................... 22

INDUSTRY PROFILES .............................................. ........ 24

Agriculture ....................................................... 25

Fishing .............................. ............................. 32

Manufacturing ..................................................... 42

Tourism ........................................................... 58

Services ........................................................... 74

Wholesale and Retail Trade ........................................ 79

Transportation .................................................... 84

Government ........................................................ 87,

Other .............................................................. 95
UNEMPLOYMENT ............................................................ 97

Unemployment Rate .................................. I ................ 97

Characteristics of the Unemployed ................................ 102

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES. .108

Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ill

General Debt . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT PLANS. .114

Development of the Tourist Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Development of Economic Activities Providing Year-Round

Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

LIST OF TABLES

SUMMARY TABLE 1, Family Income by Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
SUMMARY TABLE 2, Population Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

SUMMARY TABLE 3, Employment by Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

SUMMARY TABLE 4, Standard Deviation of Employment . . . . . . . . . . . .19

SUMMARY TABLE 5, Average Annual Payroll Per Worker . . . . . . . . . . . .21

SUMMARY TABLE 6, Value of Agricultural Products Sold . . . . . . . . . . .30

SUMMARY TABLE 7, Pacific County Fisheries Harvest and Value as a

Percent of Washington State Harvest and Value . . . . . . . . . . . .35

SUMMARY TABLE 8, Fisheries Harvest .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

SUMMARY TABLE 9, Value Added by Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

SUMMARY TABLE 10, Timber Harvested - All Ownerships . . . . . . . . . . .54

SUMMARY TABLE 11, Summary of Employment and Payroll . . . . . . . . . . .62

SUMMARY TABLE 12, Distribution of Travel Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . 66

SUMMARY TABLE 13, Inventory of Private Outdoor Recreation Facilities . . .70

SUMMARY TABLE 14, Inventory of Public Recreation Land . . . . . . . . . . 71

SUMMARY TABLE 15, Recreation Land by Type . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . 72

SUMMARY TABLE 16, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Number of Establishments

and Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

SUMMARY TABLE 17, Government Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

SUMMARY TABLE 18, Government Payroll, Average Annual Payroll Per Worker .92

SUMMARY TABLE 19, Total Government Payrolls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

SUMMARY TABLE 20, Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

SUMMARY TABLE 21, Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

SUMMARY TABLE 22, General Revenue and Expenditures Per 1,000 Dollars

of Personal Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . 109

iii

I. INTRODUCTION

The following report is an economic base study of Pacific County, Washing-

ton. This document should be read in conjunction with the Comprehensive

Data Book for Pacific County.

A. PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to provide planners in Pacific County a con-

cise description with detailed support data of the economy of their area.

Information on the industry and labor force of the County will,provide the

knowledge with which to isolate and define deterrents to economic stability

and will allow the efficient assessment of economic assets with which the

County economy may be developed more fully.

B. SCOPE

The study will describe the economy of Pacific County using updatable data

sources wherever possible. The industries of the County will be defined

in terms of their employment, payrolls, seasonality, value and capital

facilities. In addition the characteristics of the un- or under-employed

labor force of the County will be discussed. To maintain report brevity

while still providing the detail of data necessary to assess the County

economy, the report will only include summary tables of economic data.

Detailed tables, which show how published data was manipulated, as well

as the summary tables used in this report, will be compiled into a Compre-

hensive Data Book of Pacific County. This Data Book should allow techni-

cians within the County the information necessary to update the data in

future years.

Economic trends, both in the report and in the Comprehensive Data Book,

will be provided from 1970 to the most current year available.

C. OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY AREA

Pacific County, located in the southwestern corner of Washington State,

is bordered on the south by the Columbia River and on the west by the

Pacific Ocean. The Raymond-South Bend area and the Long Beach Peninsula are

Pacific County's major economic centers. Raymond, the County's most popu-

lous city, and South Bend, the county seat, are located on the Willapa

River at the head of Willapa Harbor. The Long Beach Peninsula is located

about 48 miles south and west of Raymond-South Bend and has an economic

base supported primarily by fishing and tourism.

The Pacific County economy relies heavily on forestry and fishing. Logging,

lumber and wood products manufacturing, fishing, seafood processing and

the services supported by tourism are the major employers. With the excep-

tion of lumber and wood products manufacturing, industry in Pacific County,

due to the cyclical nature of its resource base, is highly seasonal.

Pacific County is divided between north County and south County. This

division is not only geographic, but has economic and demographic defini-

tion. Therefore, where applicable, the individual discussions which follow

will describe the differences between north and south Pacific County.

II. TOTAL POPULATION

Total population in Pacific County remained relatively constant from 1970

to 1976 at about 15,800 people. This figure is an estimate by the Washington

State Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management (OPPFM). Human

Resources Planning Institute (HRPI) conducted a telephone survey in Pacific

County in September, 1976. The survey revealed that total county population

at that time was about 16,100 people. The discrepancy between HRPI and OPPFM

figures is minimal. However, to the extent that a discrepancy exists, it

is likely due to construction activity in the County which was at its height

during September, as well as to a few remaining summer residents.

According to the 1970 Census of Population, Pacific County population was

about 80 percent rural. There are four incorporated towns in the County,

Raymond, South Bend (the County seat), Ilwaco and Long Beach. These incor-

porated places account for about 41 percent of the total County population

with the remaining 59 percent in unincorporated suburban or rural portions

of the County.

A. AGE

The age distribution of the Pacific County population is dissimilar to that

of the State of Washington in all age groupings. According to the 1970

Census of Population for Washington (see Comprehensive Data Book (CBD) Table

11-24, Pacific County has higher percentages of older people and lower

percentages of younger people than the State. For example, in 1970 about
'59 percent of Pacific County's population was under the age of 45, compared

with about 70 percent in the State, while about 41 percent of the County's

population was 45 years and older, compared with the State's 30 percent.

Two primary forces are responsible for this difference in State and County

age distributions: (1) Young people are moving away to seek or accept jobs

elsewhere due to insufficient employment opportunities in Pacific County;

and, (2) the County, especially the southern part, is attracting relatively

large numbers of older people, who are moving to Pacific County to retire.

Updated age and sex distributions are not available from State sources.

Although the HRPI telephone survey in Pacific County is not a readily

updatable source, it is the only recent source of age and sex distributions

of the population. Survey results indicate only a minimal change from 1970

to 1976 in County age distribution. The percentage of people between 16 and

24 years is lower than in 1970, while the percentage of people between 25

and 34 years is slightly higher. The percentage of people 65 years and

older, as shown in the survey, is 16.6 percent compared to 15.3 percent in

1970. In other words, the trend of younger persons moving away from and

older persons moving into the County has been accentuated since 1970. The

rest of the age groupings did not change more than a tenth of a percent (See

CDB Table II-2-a).

Survey results also recorded age distributions for people in the Raymond

telephone exchange (north Pacific County), and the Ilwaco and Naselle
telephone exchanges (south Pacific County). As expected, the age distributions

of people in the Raymond telephone exchange are comparable to the County-

wide distribution with 59 percent under 45 years of age and 41 percent 45

years and older. People in the Ilwaco telephone exchange are relatively

older than the County average. In the Ilwaco exchange about 53 percent of

the people are under 45 years of age, while 47 percent are 45 years and

older. Ilwaco and the Long Beach Peninsula have attracted large numbers of
older people moving into the area to retire. People in the Naselle exchange

are younger than the County average with 69 percent under the age of 45 and

31 percent 45 years and older.

SUMMARY OF AGE DISTRIBUTIONS

Pacific County
September 1976

Telephon'e Exchanges
Years Raymond Ilwaco Na.selle Pacific County

Under 45 59% 53% 69% 59%

45-up 41% 47% 31% 41%

Source: Excess Labor Resources, Pacific County, Telephone Survey, HRPI,
September, 1976.

For more detail on age distributions within Pacific County, see COB Tables
II-2-a through II-2-d-

B. SEX

According to the 1970 Census, the sex' distribution in Pacific County is 50

percent males and 50 percent females which is similar to that of the State

in 1970. The County and State sex distribution by age grouping was also

comparable with only one exception. Of those people 65 years and older,

43 percent were men in the State, while 49 percent were men in the County.

The HRPI survey showed lower percentages of men in all age groups, with

the exception of men 65 years and older, in 1976. This shift is probably

a result of the logic of the telephone survey rather than an actual shift

in age distribution. See CDB Tables II-2-a through II-2-d for 1976 age

and sex distributions for Pacific County and the three telephone exchanges

surveyed within Pacific County.

C. RACE

In 1975, minorities in Pacific County accounted for about three percent

(481 persons) of total County population. This compares with the State

of Washington where minorities are about seven percent of total State

population (See CDB Table 11-3). Native Americans account for the

majority of Pacific County's minority population. Most of these people

live in the northwestern part of the County.

The HRPI survey did not sample for minority population distributions.

D. I,NCOME

Based on the 1970 Census of Population, General Social and Economic

Characteristics, families derive income from the following sources:1

@ Wages and salaries

a Non-farm self-employment

* Farm self-employment

e Public assistance or welfare

* Other income (including interest, dividends, property rentals,

gambling gains, etc.)

Summary Table 1 presents the number of families who derive income from

each source, as well as the mean income derived from each source for families

in Pacific County.

The following matrix illustrates the problem which must be analyzed:

Mean Income Percentage of
From a Given Source Total Families

High A B

Low C D

Census o f Population, General Social and Economic Characteristics, Washington,
-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1970, Table 124, page 49-308,
Type of Income of Families. Comprehensive Data Book Table 11-4-2 - II-4-c.

SUMMARY TABLE 1

FAMILY INCOME BY TYPE

Washington State and Pacific County
1970

Washington State 7- Pacific County
% Total Total % Total Total
Families Income Families Income

All Families 862,542 100.0 4,357 100.0
Mean Income All Sources 9,408
Total Income 9,928,540,000 100.0 40,990,000 100.0

1. Wage & Salary Income
Number of Families 751,509 87.1 3,383 77.6
Mean Income $10,473 $8,454
Total Income 7,870,550,000 79.3 28,600,000 70.0

2. Non-Farm Self-Employed
Number of Families 104,787 12.1 812 18.6
Mean Income $8,133 $7,214
Total Income 852,230,000 8.6 5,840,000 14.2

3. Farm Self-Employment
Number of Families 34,380 4.0 218 5.0
Mean Income $3,801 $4,442
Total Income 130,680,000 1.3 970,000 2.4

4. Social Security Income
Number of Families 151,406 17.6 1,267 29.1
Mean Income $1,732 $1,850
Total Income 262,240,000 2.6 2,340,000 5.7

5. Pub. Assist. or Welfare
Number of Families 44,605 5.2 191 4.4
Mean Income $1,326 $1,270
Total Income 59,150,000 0.6 240,000 0.6

6. Other Income
Number of Families 375,344 43.5 1,913 43.9
Mean Income $2,008 $1,566
Total Income 753,690,000 7.6 3,000,000 7.3

Source: Census of Population,.General Social and Economic
Characteristics, Washington, Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1970, Table 124,
Page 49-308.

As indicated by the above matrix, four combinations are possible:

1. mean income from a given source is high and the percentage of

families deriving income from that source is high. (A + B)

2. Mean income from a given source is low and the percentage of
families deriving income from that source is low. (C + D)

3. Mean income from a given source is high, and the percentage of

families deriving income from that source is low. (A + D)

4. Mean income from a given source is low and the percentage of

families deriving income from that source is high. (C + B)

The two combinations which serve to better the economic conditions of an

area are combinations 1 and 2, while 3 and 4 are not as desirable.

Pacific County families, for the most part, fall under the more undesirable

combinations. The following discussion provides more detail on mean incomes

by source and percent of families deriving income from a given source.

Mean income from wages and salaries is higher than the mean income from

other income sources. In 1970, mean income from wage and salaries for

families in the County was $8,454; 78 percent of Pacific County families

derived income from this source. Statewide, 87 percent of families derived

a mean income of $10,473 from wages and salaries. In other words, when

compared to the State, a smaller percentage of County families derived income

from wages and salaries, the source of highest mean incomes. In.addition,

the mean income from wage and salaries is lower in the County than in the

State.

Income from non-farm self-employment was also lower in the County than for

the State ($7,214 and $8,133, respectively). Non-farm self-employment

includes much of the fisheries, services and retail trade employment. In

Pacific County about 19 percent of families derived income from non-farm

self-employment, compared to about 12 percent statewide. In other words, in

this category, Pacific County has a larger percentage of people deriving

lower average incomes When compared to a statewide average.

Average income from public assistance or welfare is slightly lower in the

County than in the State. It is interesting to note, however, that a

smaller percentage of County families (four percent) derive income from

this source than do families statewide (five percent). This is probably

due to the relative ease of accessing public assistance agencies in urban

areas, as well as the social stigma associated with public assistance in

rural areas.

Both social security income and income from farm self-employment are higher

on the average in Pacific County than for the State. These types of income,

on the average, however, are far below the average income from major sources

such as wage and salary income. As such they serve to bring down the average

income from all income sources. For instance, even though the County average

social security income is $1,850 compared to the State's $1,732, the County

has 29 percent of its families receiving social security income compared

to the State's approximate 18 percent. Pacific County, then, has a very

high percentage of families receiving retirement income which is much lower

than overall average income.

Two major factors are important in explaining the County's relatively lower

incomes. First, there is a high percentage (relative to the State) of self-

employment in the County in such industries as services, retail trade, fishing,

logging and farming. These people derive lower mean incomes on the average

than self-employed people in the rest of the State. This is due in large part

to the absence of self-employed professional and technical people in the

County compared to the State. Second, Pacific County has a high percentage of

social security recipients due to the large percentage of people over 65 years

of age. Although the mean income from social security is higher in Pacific

County than it is for the rest of the State, it is still much lower than the

average income from all income sources. As such, the high percentage of

families receiving social security income serves to bring down the overall

average income.

The seasonality of most of the important industries in Pacific County is also

a contributing factor to lower reported wages. This problem is caused by the

method of reporting employment to Employment Security. Employment Security

samples the work force one week out of each month (the week including the

15th) and adjusts the reported employment to reflect employment for the whole

month. If the.number of people working during the sample week is unusually

high, employment for the month will be high and vice-versa. In addition,

the sample does not distinguish between part-time and full-time workers or

between temporary and permanent workers. Consequently, a lower average payroll

per worker results when dividing industry payroll by average monthly employ-

ment in an area which is relatively more seasonal than the State.

E. POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Summary Table 2 presents population projections published by different

sources: OBERS Series E, Bonneville Power Administration, Pacific County

Preliminary Land Use Plan, and Pacific Northwest Bell. Population projections

from the State of Washington Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management

(OPPFM) are out of date and are felt by that office to be too inaccurate

to publish. OPPFM is currently making new projections for counties in

Washington, which should be available in Spring, 1977. The new projections

should be obtained at that time and compared to the population projections

which follow.

Population projections published in the 1971 Preliminary Land Use Plan

for Pacific County forecast County population to grow from 15,796 in 1970

to 17,240 in 1975. Population estimates for 1975 show County to be about

15,900. Based on th,is observation as well as discussions with the Pacific

County Regional Planner, it is felt that these projections overstate future

population levels in Pacific County.

The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) published population projections

in 1973. BPA historically projects higher populations than actually occur.

BPA projected Pacific County to grow to 16,400 persons by 1975. There is

general concurrence that OPPFM population estimates for 1975 are accurate

for Pacific County at about 15,900 people. It is probable that the BPA

population projections through 1980 are overstated.

SUMMARY TABLE 2

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Pacific County
1970-2000

Based on OBERS, Seriel E 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
for WR Subarea 1715 15,796 15,690 15,580 15,740 15,910 15,940 15,960

Bonneville Power
Administration 15,796 16,400 17,500 18,500 19,250 20,1902 21,0902

Office of Program (New projections will be available in Spring,
Planning and Fiscal 1977. Old projections felt to be too
Management inaccurate to publish.)
Preliminary Land Use Plan 15,796 17,2402 18,555 20,395 22,100 23,545 25,120
Pacific Northwest Bell 15,796 15,900 16,300 16,600 16,900 17,2002 17,5002

lBased growth rate derived from a linear regression of population pro-
2jections for OBERS Water Resource Subarea 1715.
Extrapolated based on linear regression of respective population pro-
jections.

Sources: OBERS Projections, Series E Population, Volume 3, Water
Resources Regions and Subareas, U. S. Water Resources
Council, Washington, D.C., 1972.

Population, Employment and Housing Units Projected to 1990,
Washington, U. S. Department of the Interior, Bonneville
Power Administration, February, 1973.

Population and Household Trends, 1975-1990, Pacific North-
west Bell, April, 1976.

Preliminary Land Use Plan, Pacific County, Washington,
Pacific County Regional Flanning Council, July, 1971.
Page 111-4.

OBERS, Series E, published in 1972, projects population for Water Resources

Subarea (WRS) 1715 which includes Pacific and Grays Harbor Counties. The

growth rates derived from WRS 1715 were applied to Pacific County population.

Using this methodSeries E projects Pacific County population to decline

from 15,796 in 1970 to 15,580 in 1980. After 1980 a slow rate of growth is

forecast and County population in 2000 is projected to be 15,960. OBERS,

Series E projections incorporate a zero population growth assumption which

cause projections of population to be very low. These projections do not

reflect an accurate picture of expected population growth in Pacific County.

In April of 1976 Pacific Northwest Bell (PNB) published population projections

to 1990 for counties in Washington. PNB estimated 1975 population in Pacific

County to be 15,900. Population in 1980 is expected to reach 16,300 reflecting

an average annual rate of growth from 1975 to 1980 of about 0.5 percent. PNB

projections appear to be the most accurate projections currently available

assuming present trends do not change significantly. However, the County

should obtain the official State projections from OPPFM for comparison when

they become available since they have been an accurate and useful data source

in the past.

III. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

A. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

Two major sources report employment (by industry) for counties. The

primary sources for Washington counties are: (1) U. S. Census; and,

(2) Washington State Employment Security. Washington State Department

of Employment Security publishes two sets of employment data. The first

reports only the actual employment covered by the Employment Security

Act. The second reports estimated total employment; that is, covered

employment, as well as uncovered employment. Normally, this second publi-

cation is used in describing employment by industry. However for Pacific

County, in several years, the estimates of total employment were less

than covered employment, which by definition is impossible. For this

reason discussions of employment by industry use actual covered employ-

ment data. This procedure is recommended until such time as Employment

Security is able' to make accurate total employment estimates.

One exception will be made to the procedure of using covered employment

data. Much of government employment is not covered by the Employment

Security Act and,.therefore, is not reflected in those data. A special

technique will be used to estimate government employment. The tec,hnique

is explained in Section IV-H, GOVERNMENT.

According to covered employment statistics from Washington State Employ-

ment Security, Pacific County's major employing industries are manufac-
turing (lumber and wood products and food processing), trade and services
(see Summary Table 3). In 1975 approximately 36 percent of the total

SUMMARY TABLE 3
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY]

Pacific County
1970-1975

% of % of % of % of % of % of
Manf./ Manf./ Manf./ Manf./ Manf./ Manf@
% of Non- % of Non- % of Non- % of Non- % of Non- "of Non-
Cov. Manf. Cov. Manf. Cov. Manf. Cov. Manf. Cov. Manf. Cov. Manf.
19701 Emp. Emp. 197, Emp. Emp. 1972 Emp. Emp. 1973 Emp. Emp. 1974 Emp. Emp. 1975 Emp- Emp.
Total Employment 3,463 100.0 4,520 100.0 4,642 100.0 4,675 100.0 4,649 100.0 4,526 100.0 -
Agriculture, Forest - - 3.0 - 176 3.8 - 174 3.8 -
and Fisheries - - - 123 2.7 120 2.6 138
Manufacturing 1,812 52.3 100.0 1,792 39.6 100.0 1,880 40.5 100.0 1,862 39.8 100.0 1,785 38.4 100.0 1,612 35.6 100.0
Food Processing 471 13.6 26.0 516 11.4 28.8 470 10.1 25.0 478 10.2 25.7 472 10.2 26.5 450 9.9 27.9
Lumber and Wood 1,296 37.4 71.5 1,230 27.2 68.6 1,362 29.3 72.4 1,330 28.4 71.4 1,255 27.0 70.3 1,109 24.5 68.8
Printing & Publish. 25 0.7 1.4 22 0.5 1.2 24 0.5 1.3 26 0.6 1.4 31 0.7 1.7 33 0.7 2.1
Other 20 0.6 1.1 24 0.5 1.3 24 0.5 1.3 28 0.6 1.5 27 0.6 1.5 20 0.4 1.2
Non-Manufacturing 1,651 47.7 100.0 2,605 57.6 100.0 2,642 56.9 100.0 2,675 57.2 100.0 2,688 57.8 100.0 2,740 60.5 100.0
Contract Cons. 104 3.0 6.3 110 2.4 4.2 119 2.6 4.5 133 2.8 5.0 111 2.4 4.1 108 2.4 3.9
Trans; Comm; Util. 196 5.7 11.9 207 4.6 7.9 214 4.6 8.1 204 4.4 7.6 216 4.6 8.0 202 4 *5 7.4
Trade 733 21.2 44.4 759 16.8 29.1 762 16.4 28.8 731 15.6 27.3 726 15.6 27.0 761 16.8 27.8
FIRE 73 2.1 4.4 76 1.7 2.9 91 2.0 3.4 107 2.3 4.0 111 2.4 4.1 116 2.6 4.2
Services 322 9.3 19.5 320 7.1 12.3 349 7.5 13.2 401 8.6 15.0 436 9.4 16.2 487 10.8 17.8
Government - - - 1,120 24.8 43.0 1,100 23.7 41.6 1,090 23.3 40.7 1 080 23.2 40.2 1,060 23.4 38.7
Not Else. Classified 223 6.4 13.5 13 0.3 0.5 7 0.2 0.3 9 0.2 0.3 8 0.2 0.3 6 0.1 0.2

lincludes a special data manipulation explained in Section IV-H to include approximately 850 uncovered government workers.
2Totals and percentages of totals do not include government employment.

Note: Percentages may not sum due to rounding.
Source: Employment and Payrolls in Washington State by County and by lndust@y, Industries covered by the Employment Security Act,
Washington State Employment Security, Fourth Quarter Report, Nos. 97-117, 1970-1975.

work force of Pacific County was employed in manufacturing. This compares

with about 23 percent statewide. The predominant manufacturing industry is

lumber and wood products which alone accounts for about 25 percent of total

covered employment. Food processing accounts for over ten percent of total

covered employment. Government employment in the County is about 23 percent

of total covered employment. This figure cannot be compared to government

employment statewide, due to the special estimation of government employment

explained in Section IV-H. Pacific County's other two major employing industries

are trade, which accounts for 17 percent, and services, which accounts for 11

percent of total covered employment. These are comparable to percentages in

trade and services, statewide.

Probably the single most important point which should be made with regard to

Pacific County employment is the seasonality or variability of its most im-

portant industries. A simple measure of seasonality can be shown by the

standard deviation of monthly employment within a given year. Standard devia-

tion is the square root of the variance around a mean (average). Using standard

deviation to show seasonality provides an intuitive interpretation of variance,

since it is based on the same units as the variable being analyzed. One

standard deviation of employment in a given industry will be expressed as a

percent of total employment in that industry.

In 1975 total employment in Pacific County was 4,526 and one standard deviation

of total employment was 44-8. The standard deviation, then, indicates that total

employment varied by � 448 workers or about + ten percent of the total employ-

ment throughout 1975. Total employment for Washington State in 1975 was 1,058,011

and one standard deviation + 28,590. The standard deviation for the State

the n, was t 2.7 percent of total employment. The discrepancy between Paci-

fic County's ten percent standard deviation and the state's 2.7 percent can

be assigned in major part to the relative seasonality or variability of

employment in Pacific County industries. See Summary Table 4 for a compara-

tive display of percent standard deviations by industry from 1970 through

1975 for the State of Washington and Pacific County.

Lumber and wood products is not subject to significant seasonality. How-

ever, it is a major employing industry and is dominated by one firm. As

such, work stoppage due to an annual plant overhaul, a strike, or fire hazard

in the timber cutting areas will cause most of the industry to come to a

halt.

Food processing is a highly seasonal industry due to the nature of the var-

ious fisheries. Although the processing plants for the most part are open

year-round, a worker qualified for oyster shucking during the oyster season

will not always be interested or able to work as a crab shaker during crab

season. Finally, services and retail trade have a year-round work force

to serve the needs of the resident population. However, summer tourism

causes fluctuations in employment, especially in the southern part of the

County.

Total payrolls in Pacific County decreased from $44.6 million in 1971

to $42.6 million in 1975 (1971 is used instead of 1970 because government

SUMMARY TABLE
STANDARD DEVIATION OF EMPLOYMENT

Washington State and Pacific County
1970-1975

One Standard Deviation As A Percentage Of Average Annual Employment

Washington State Pacific County

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Total Employment 1.5 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 2.7 5.6 7.9 6.6 6.3 5.8 9.9

Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 13.3 17.3 16.9 15.0 14.7 28.4 15.9 20.3 26.4 19.8 18.5 17.3

Manufacturing 4.8 1.7 4.3 3.7 3.2 1.8 5.9 8.6 6.0 4.6 4.0 13.7
Food Processing 7.7 9.2 8.5 9.7 10.8 10.6 9.5 10.7 14.3 11.7 9.0 14.3
Lumber & Wood 4.0 7.5 6.3 4.5 5.3 7.6 5.5 10.9 4.4 3.0 3.0 19.7
Printing & Publishing 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 5.0 7.7 14.1 8.7 10.0 6.1
Other 9.0 2.3 5.7 3.0 2.4 2.3 9.7 17.6 10.2 14.4 17.1 10.0

Non-Manufacturing 1.7 2.7 3.1 3.9 3.6 2.9 11.3 10.6 12.1 8.3 9.7 12.0
Construction 7.2 11.9 11.6 9.8 8.8 10.0 23.5 27.1 27.9 16.4 15.6 15.0
Trans., Comm., & Utilities 2.1 1.8 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 11.1 10.2 10.4 8.9 6.4 8.0
Trade 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 3.9 12.5 14.0 14.1 12.0 11.4 13.3
Fire 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.9 8.5 8.5 13.2 5.2 2.6
Services 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.5 3.6 1.6 13.4 14.8 15.9 13.2 15.8 18.6
Government - 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.6 - 6.0 5.6 2.5 3.8 5.1

Source: Human Resources Planning Institute, Computed from Washington State Covered Employment data

payrolls were not reflected until 1971. See Section IV-H, GOVERNMENT,
for a discussion). This decline is due in major part to declines in both

employment and in average payroll per worker in some of the County's

.higher wage-paying industries.

Average annual total payroll per worker in Pacific County was consistently

lower than that of the State of Washington over the period from 1970 to

1975. In 1975 average payroll per worker was $9,405 in Pacific County
compared with $10,763 for the State (see Summary Table 5). The-.Cou.nty's
position relative to the State is similar in most industries (with the major

exceptions of lumber and wood products and government). The specific reasons

vary from industry to industry; however, the primary causes are Pacific

County's seasonality of employment, its relative lack of unionization, and

the minimal skill requirements of personnel in most of its industries.

Individual industry profiles-will discuss specific causes in more detail.

The industry profiles which follow in Section IV will provide a more

detailed discussion of each industry in Pacific County. A specific

industry will be described in terms of its employment and employment

seasonality, payro 11, value and capital facilities.

WW M M M" M

SUMMARY TABLE 5

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAYROLL PER WORKER

Washington State and Pacific County
1970-1975
(in constant 1975 dollars)

Washington State Pacific County

Industry 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Total 10,784 10,849 10,889 10,948 10,598 10,763 8,926 9,866 10,144 9,975 9,556 9,405

Agriculture, Forest, & Fish N/A 7,857 8,275 9,398 8,602 8,761 N/A 8,146 8,628 9,889 7,996 8,540

Manufacturing 13,254 12,874 13,185 13,219 12,925 13,408 10,635 10,810 111,366 11,184 10,373 10,760
Food Processing 10,827 10,807 11,181 11,110 10,955 11,073 6,228 6,094 6,135 5,870 5,977 5,994
Lumber & Wood 12,086 12,121 12,539 12,700 12,329 12,463 12,389 12,957 13,333 13,269 12,216 12,918
Printing & Publishing 11,250 11,276 11,682 11,563 11,057 11,018 4,428 3,871 4,798 4,190 4,111 4,587
Other 14,146 13,684 13,922 13,896 13,581 14,305 8,503 8,538 8,772 9,301 8,698 8,546

Contract Construction 14,397 14,298 14,230 14,333 13,909 14,358 10,973 11,288 11,378 11,305 10,794 9,798
Trans., Comm., & Utilities 12,923 13,116 13,868 13,934 13,265 13,661 10,066 9,908 11,390 11,590 9,994 9,658
Trade 8,645 7,461 8,744 8,724 8,499 8,481 6,043 5,963 6,295 5,996 5,922 5,906
Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 10,045 9,981 9,950 9,808 9,472 9,483 7,684 8,336 7,911 6,983 7,797 7,484
Services 7,750 7,825 7,935 7,960 7,804 7,957 4,348 4,527 4,659 4,742 4,889 4,886
Government - 12,746 - 12,669 12,991 12,453 12,675 - 12,667 12.425 12,341 12,753 12,190
Not Elsewhere Classified 10,623 10,242 14,840 10,439 9,295 8,150 9,571 10,320 11,719 10,802 9,825 10,759

Note: N/A not available
Source: Employment & Payrolls in Washington State by County and by Industry, Washington State Employment Security, 1970 No. 97,
i971 No. 101, 1972 No. 105, 1973 No. 109, 1974 No. 113, 19?5 No. 117.

B. OCCUPATIONS OF EMPLOYED PERSONS

The Census of Population is the primary source of data on the occupations

of employed persons. Al though the figures for total number of people

employed from the Census do not agree with like figures from Employment

Security due to different reporting techniques, the percentages of people

in given occupations should be accurate.

According to the 1970 Census, Pacific County's major occupational categories

are craftsmen and foremen, operatives, except transport, laborers, except
farm, and service workers, except private household.1 Laborers, operatives,

and craftsmen/foremen account for about 46 percent of the Pacific County

work force. This compares with about 29 percent statewide for those

occupations. Laborers, operatives and craftsmen/foremen make up the

majority of the employment in Pacific County's manufacturing and fishing

industries. Service workers in the County account for 14 percent of total

employment compared with approximately 12 percent service workers for

the state. The County's 14 percent service workers, together with about

five percent sales workers, make up the majority of employment in the

services and retail trade industries. The remaining.35 percent of the
County work force is categorized as professional/technical (8.4%), mana-
gerial/administrative (7.4%), clerical (9.4%), transport equipment opera-
tives (5.1%), farmers, farm managers, laborers and foremen (3.6%), and
private household workers (1.4%). Comprehensive Data Book (CDB) Table 111 -1

lCensus of Population,.General Social and Economic Characteristics,
Washington, U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, T970.
CDB Table III-1.

221

shows occupations of employed persons in 1970 for Pacific County and the

State of Washington. Occupations of the un- or under-employed people in

Pacific County will be discussed in Section V of this report.

IV. INDUSTRY PROFILES

The following sections provide detailed discussions of each of Pacific

County's major industries. Each industry profile includes a description of

employment trends in the industry, seasonality of industry employment, and

industry payroll trends. The data provided on these topics are compared

with statewide averages and trends and discrepancies will be noted and ex-

plained. In addition the industry profiles will include, where available

and applicable, a value measure of the industry and a discussion of the

industry's capital facilities.

2 4

A. AGRICULTURE

Due to poor soil conditions, Pacific County has very little land suitable

for agriculture. The number of acres in farmlands declined from 38,945 in

1969 to 34,570 in 1974 (or from 6.7 percent of Pacific County's total of

581,250 acres in 1969 to six percent in 1974). Most of this farmland is

used for beef or dairy cattle farming. The primary agricultural activity is

the growing and harvesting of cranberries. In addition, there are several

small rhododendron nurseries on the Long Beach Peninsula.

The following discussion will describe the employment, payrolls, value and

capital facilities associated with this industry.

1. Employment and Payroll

Published sources of employment data aggregate employment associated with

agriculture with that of forestry and fisheries. Throughout the major

portion of this report, data on employment covered by the Employment Security

Act from the Washington State Department of Employment Security is being

used. However, because so many of the workers in agriculture and fisheries

are not covered by the Act, this source is not appropriate for the following

discussion. Therefore, although employment in agriculture,'forestry, and

fisheries is shown in Summary Table 3, data on farm operators from the

Census of Agriculture will be used as a surrogate for employment in this

industry. According to the Census of Agriculture, there were 298 farm

operators in 1969 in Pacific County. Of these 254 (85 percent) were full

owners, 40 (13 percent) were part owners, and four (one percent) were

lCen5us of Agriculture, United State Department of Commerce, Bureau of
@he Census, 1969 and 'preliminary, 1974. Comprehensive Data Book Tables
IV-A-2-a and IV-A-2-b.

tenants. The total number of farm operators declined only slightly by 1974

to 290, of which 253 (87 percent) were full owners, 31 (11 percent) were

part owners, and six (two percent) were tenants.

Based on these figures,employment in agriculture is remaining relatively

stabl'e or declining slightly. The following will describe the conditions of

specific farming activity.

a. Cranberries.

There are 86 cranberry growers in Pacific County and almost

1,000 acres of cranberry bogs. Of these, 34 growers and 430 acres

of bogs are located on the Long Beach Peninsula. Cranguyma Farms

at Long Beach is the largest single grower in the County with 120

acres in production and thirty acres of new plantings. The

remainder of the growers are located in the Grayland-North Cove
area in the northwestern corner of the County.1

The Pacific County cranberry growers account for 54 percent of

the total cranberry harvest in Washington State. The remaining

46 percent of the growers are located in Grays Harbor County.

Together, Pacific and Grays Harbor Counties account for six

percent of the nation's total cranberry production.

About 98 percent of the Washington cranberry growers belong to

iLeadbetter Point Environmental Assessment, Washington State Parks and
Recreation Commission, April, 1974.

the Ocean Spray growers cooperative. The remaining growers sell

primarily to health food stores.

b. Livestock@

As stated, most of the farmland in Pacific County supports dairy

or beef cattle farming. Of the 34,570 acres of farmland in the

County, a minimum of 7,776 and a maximum of 19,580 is used for

pasture. This acreage includes 7,776 acres of cropland used for

pasture only and 11,804 acres of woodland including woodland

pasture. These figures indicate a decline from 1969 when there

were 9,718 acres of cropland used for pasture only and 15,753 acres
of woodland, including woodland pasture.1

Dairy farming, which was once the County's most important agricul-

tural activity, declined from 1964 to 1969 when it became an

increasingly poor investment for small farmers. However, from

1969 to 1974, although more small farmers sold out or shifted to

some other agricultural activity, this sector of the industry

appeared to remain relatively stable. According to the Census of

Agriculture, although dairy farms declined from 50 in 1969 to 46

in 1974, the number of milk cows increased from 1,269 in 1969 to

1,300 in 1974. One of the largest dairy farms on the west coast

is located near Chinook, in the southwestern corner of the County;

however, most of the dairy farming is located inland.

lCensus of Agriculture, United States Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census, 1969 and preliminary 1974. Comprehensive
Data Book, Tables IV-A-2-a and IV-A-2-b.

Beef cattle farming is located primarily on the diked tidelands
around Willapa Bay with only one producing beef farm in the south
near Long Beach. Beef cattle production declined steadily from
2,963 cattle (165 farms) in 1964, to 2,554 (101 farms) in 1969, to
2,402 (127 farms) in 19.74.1 See Comprehensive Data Book (CDB) Tables

IV-A-2-a and IV-A-2-b for data on agriculture in Pacific County.

One standard deviation of employment in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries

was about 17 percent of total agricultural employment in 1975. The figures

on percent standard deviation (presented in Summary Table 4) are based on

covered employment. For this reason the percent standard deviation is not a

reliable measure for seasonality of agriculture.

Cranberry production is a seasonal operation which begins in late September

or early October and ends in early November. Indust ry technology, developed

during World War II and later refined, has eliminated much of the labor which
was once necessary for cranberry harvest.2 The industry's seasonality, there-

fore, does not affect employment to any great degree. In fact, employment in

cranberry farming helps soften the impact of summer tourism. Cattle farming,
both dairy and beef, are year-round operations. As such the agricultural

industry in Pacific County does not contribute significantly to the seasonality

of the economy.

Data on the payrolls associated with agricul ture are available primarily
from the covered employment and payroll data from Employment Security.

lCensus of Agriculture, United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
'Tensus 116g and pr inary 1974. Comprehensive DAta Book, Tables IV-A-2-a
2and IV'A- -
Leadbetter P6int Environmental Assessment, Washington State Parks and
Recreation Commission, April, 1974.

These data are not considered to have an accurate basis. The following

section on value of agricultural products will provide a reliable and updat-

able number, which may be used in the absence of actual payroll data.

2. Value of Agricultural Products

According to the Census of Agriculture there were $3,490,000 of agricultural

products sold in 1974 in Pacific County. In constant 1975 dollars, the value

of agricultural products sold in 1969 was $5,097,000 (see Summary Table 6.).

This represents an average annual decrease of -7.26 percent in value of

product. The average value per farm of products sold decreased from $17,104

in 1969 to $12,034 in 1974 representing an average annual decline of -6.79

percent. These declines in value are due both to a decrease in quantity of

product, as well as to a decrease in the value of the product.

3. Capital Facilities

According to the Census of Agriculture, there were 290 farms on 34,570 acres

of farmland in Pacific County in 1974. The average size of each farm, then,

was 119 acres. In 1969 the average size of farms in the County was 138

acres. The value of land and buildings grew from $18.5 million in 1969 to

$23.7 million in 1974. The average value of land and buildings per farm
increased from $62,184 in 1969 to $81,631 in 1974.1

The estimated market value of farm machinery and equipment was about $3.0
million in 1969 and $3.8 million in 1974.2 This value included 365

1Shown in current 1969 and 1974 dollars since no appropriate index was
identified for adjusting to constant dollars.
2Adiusted to 1975 constant dollars usinq the Consumer Price Index from
U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1975.

SUMMARY TABLE 6

VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS SOLD

Pacific County
1969 and 1974
(in constant 1975 dollars)

Crops, Including Nursery Products 1969 1974
and Hay $2,520,000 $1,271,000

Forest Products 203,000 231,000

Livestock, Poultry and Their
Products 2,364,000 1,988,000

Total Value of Agricultural
Products Sold 5,087,000 3,490,000

Average Value per Farm $ 17,070 $ 12,034

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Wholesale Price Index from
the Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

Source: Census of Agriculture, United States Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census, 1969 and Preliminary 1974. Adjusted
to 1975 constant dollars using the Wholesale Price Index from
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

a
I
I
motortrucks (including pickups) and 286 wheel tractors, or a decline of 48 11
farm vehicles since 1969.
1
I
I
I
I.
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
31 1

B. FISHING

Fishing is an important part of the Pacific County economy. This industry

transcends the north-south County division witnessed in several other

industries. Major species landed at Pacific County ports are Chinook

and Coho salmon, Albacore tuna and shellfish, such as crab, oysters and

shrimp. It is difficult to obtain data on this industry. For this reason,

the information provided below does not conform completely to the detail

provided in other industry profiles but will, to the extent possible,

describe the employment, payroll, value and capital facilities associated

with fishing industry.

1. Employment and_Payroll

Published sources of data on fisheries employment do not reflect accurately

the number of people employed in the industry. Arnold Shotwell, an

Environmental Planner in Pacific County, is presently preparing a management

study for Willapa Bay. In the course of his study he has determined that

about 330 residents of Pacific County derive all or part of their income

from fishing. Another approximate 900 out-of-county people have licenses
to troll in Pacific County fisheries. Neither of these groups of people
include the people employed in the harvest of Pacific oysters. Apart from

these numbers, the data on fisheries employment is only available from the

Census or from Employment Security both of which aggregate fisheries

employment with agriculture and forestry. Although, estimates could be

made from these sources, it is felt that the more accurate data, which

will soon be available from Mr. Shotwell, will be more useful to County

planners.

2. Quantity and Value of Harvest

The major species landed at Pacific County ports are salmon, tuna, shrimp,
oysters and crab. The following discussion'describes the geographic

orientation of specific fisheries, as well as the quantity and value of

the fishery.

a. Oyster production has traditionally been Willapa Bay's most

valuable economic resource and is harvested between October and

June. The Pacific oyster, originally imported from Japan, is

most commonly produced. Oysters production takes place in both

north and south Pacific County; however, the major activity occurs

in the northern part of Willapa Bay in north Pacific County. In

1974, 1,495,000 pounds of Pacific oysters were reported at north

Pacific County ports, while 652,000 pounds were reported at'south

County ports. This total of 2,147,000 pounds is A'decline from the

oyster harvest in. 1972 of 3,637,000 pounds County-wide.

Although detailed data was not available back to 1970, sources in

Pacific County say that oyster production dropped by half after
1970 when the larger producers determined it to be more profitable

to import and can Korean oysters. Local oyster beds were harvested
only minimally and the remaining local oysters are now oversized.

In addition, there is a shortage of new oyster seed. This problem

has-not yet.been resolved.

With the exception of 1971 when the County oyster production was

only 34 percent of the total State oyster harvest, Pacific County's

oyster harvest accounts for about 50 percent of the State harvest

(see Summary Table 7). Summary Table 8 shows the Pacific County

harvest and value of the harvest for all fisheries from 1971

through 1974. This data was compiled by HRPI from detailed data

of landings by port collected by Washington State Department of Fisheries.

Although data by port were available, they could not be reported

without disclosing confidential information on individual businesses.

The first year of data collection in this form was 1971, so that

the significant shift from local oyster production to imported

oysters in not observed. Data for 1975 is still in the process of

being published. Comparable data for north and south Pacific County

ports, as well as the State of Washington are available in the

Comprehensive Data Book (CDB) Tables IV-B-1, IV-B-2, and IV-B-3.

The value of oyster production in Pacific County in 1974 was about

$2,525,000. This is a decline from 1972 when the value of oyster
production was $3,674,000.1 The value for oysters reflects the

value at the plant which includes labor and transportation, rather

than the value on the ground. Although the latter figure would com-

pare more closely to the values shown in other fisheries, it would

be an estimate. The value at the plant is used because it is an

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index for
fish from the Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1975.

SUMMARY TABLE 7

PACIFIC COUNTY FISHERIES HARVEST AND VALUE AS A PERCENT
OF WASHINGTON STATE HARVEST AND VALUE

1971-1974
(in percent)

1971 1972 1973 1974

Value of Value of Value of Value of
Specie Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest

Salmon-Total 7.4 7.5 9.2 9.4 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.0
Chinook 12.3 9.8 13.0 13.2 15.8 17.7 10.8 11.5
Coho 22.8 23.7 15.4 14.9 5.9 5.4 9.8 11.2
Chum 8.3 6.3 6.4 5.4 5.8 5.2 7.5 6.9
Ln Other - - - - - - - -

Albacore Tuna 34.1 34.2 35.1 35.4 46.1 45.9 63.2 63.5

Miscellaneous Fish 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.3

ShellfishrTotal 34.0 32.8 35.2 40.6 41.8 43.7 52.3 48.9
Dungeness Crab 43.2 41.2 36.4 36.5 39.3 38.6 42.9 43.1
Oysters 34.1 31.9 50.0 48.3 50.0 48.9 53.4 51.1
Shrimp - - 14.6 13.7 56.2 50.6 75.2 70.0
Other 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3

Total 10.2 13.1 14.0 20.3 12.3 13.4 18.1 19.4

Source: Human Resources Planning Institute, Compiled from data from Washington State Department of Fisheries

we as go, 801 M as low, am, "M Aw so

actual number, however, it reflects about twice the "off-vessel"

value used in other fisheries. These data are available through

Washington State Department of Fisheries.

b. Shrimp harvest in Pacific County began only recently in 1972-73,

The Pacific County shrimp harvest grew from nothing in 1971 to

244,000 pounds or about 15 percent of the State harvest in 1972 to

6,988,000 pounds or about 75 percent of the State harvest in 1974

(see Summary Table 7).

The dollar value generated by the shrimping industry experienced

similar growth over the period. In 1972 the value of the shrimp

harvest was $48,000. The value increased to $1,285,000 in 1974.

The industry should continue to increase at a rapid rate for another

couple of years and then, assuming present attempts to regulate the

fishery are successful, it should level off to some sustainable yield.

One particular concern of the shrimping industry is the bar crossing

from deepwater into Willapa Bay. Although the boats in the shrimping

fleet only draw about 12 feet, and the mean lower low water (MLLW)

depth at the bar is 17 feet, during rough water the boats have diffi-

culty avoiding deep troughs and hitting bottom. The industry has

not resolved this problem yet.

Summary Table 8 shows the shrimp harvest and value of harvest in

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index for
fish from the Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1975.

Pacific County Ports
1971-1974
(in thousands of pounds and constant 1975 dollars)

1971 Value--6f 1972 Value of 1973 Value--6-f 1974 Value of
Species Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest Harvest
Salmon - Total 3,983 $2,246 3,112 $2,326 2,860 $3,279 2,850 $2,156
Chinook 1,006 671 984 843 1,697 2,203 964 857
Coho 2,835 1,531 1,520 1,188 768 773 1,497 1,128
Chum 142 44 608 295 395 303 389 171
Other -0- -0- -0- -0-
Albacore Tuna 1 1,799 853 5,699 2,719 6,663 3,341 11,361 4,419

Misc. Fish 256 49 461 84 855 114 1,321 197

Shellfish - Total 8,110 3,603 8,410 6,206 7,707 4,805 11,549 5,325
Dungeness Crab 5,762 1,774 4,507 2,478 1,798 1,211 2,402 1,513
Oysters 2,338 1,827 3,637 2 3,674 2,833 2,974 2,147 2,525
Shrimp -0- -0- 244 482 3,044 615 6,988 1,285
Other 10 2 222 62 27 5 122 22
Grand Total 14,148 6,751 17,682 $11,335 18,085 $11,539 27,081 $12,097

lOnly includes south County catch due to disclosure restrictions.
2Only includes south County catch, none of this specie was caught in
the north this year.
*Insignificant catch.

Source: HRPI, Compiled from data from Washington State Department of Fisheries.

Pacific County from 1971 to 1974. See Section IV-8-2-a, for a

discussion of the detail and availability of fisheries data.

C. The Dungeness crab fishery in Pacific County runs from December

through September and normally accounts for about 40 percent of

the Washington State harvest. Approximately 50 percent of the

County crab harvest is landed at north County ports. According

to the Leadbetter Point Environmental Assessment, about 20 to 25

percent of the crabs are caught in the Willapa Bay estuary with
the remainder being caught off-shore.1

About 5.8 million pounds of crab were harvested in Pacific County
in 1971. The harvest fell to about 1.8 millio'n in 1973'and then,

increased again in 1974 to 2.4 million pounds. The productivity

of Dungeness crabs is highly cyclical and may fluctuate by 50 per-

cent from year to year. Reasons for these fluctuations are not

completely understood.. Depending on the fishery's productivity in

a gi,ven year, however, fishermen will shift in or out of the fishery,

accordingly.

The value of the Pacific County Dungeness crab fishery grew from

about $0.31 per pound in 1971 to $0.70 per pound in 1974 (see

Summary Table 8). Total value fluctuated with the size of catch

from a high in 1972 of about $2.5 million to a low in 1973 of $1.2

million. As shown in Summary Table 7 the value of the crab harvest
lLeadbetter Point Environmental Assessment, Washington State, Parks
2and Recreation Commission, April, 1974.
Adjusted to constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index for Fish
from the Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1975.

in Pacific County accounted for about 40 percent of the crab harvest

value statewide.

d. The landings of Albacore tuna at Pacific County ports increased

steadily from 1971 to 1974. In 1971 about 1.8 million pounds were

landed; landings increased to six and seven million pounds in 1972

and 1973 and in 1974, 11 million pounds of tuna were landed in

Pacific County (see Summary Table 8).

The percent of the total State tuna harvest landed in Pacific County

also increased over the period, from 34 percent in 1971 to 63 percent

in 1974 (see Summary Table 7).

Tuna landings@have increased slightly faster at north County ports

than at southern ports. Although much of the tuna landed in Pacific

County is processed elsewhere, the significant increases in landings

provide income in terms of moorage fees and transportation.

The value of the County tuna harvest has also shown substantial gains.

From about $853,000 in 1971, the value of the tuna harvest has grown

to about $4.4 mi llion. During this period the "per pound" value of

tuna increased from $0.47 in 1971 to $0.50 in 1973 and then dropped

to $0.39 in 1974. In other words the increase in total value is due

primarily to increasing size of catch and not to increased value per

pound. This condition is likely to change in the near future due to

a recent move to restrict the number of porpoises which may be

caught inadvertently in the tuna nets. This restriction will

necessarily cause the price of tuna to increase and consumer

demand to shift to substitutes in the short run. This probable

situation, together with the naturally fluctuating productivity

of the fishery, will likely have a negative effect on the tuna

industry over the next few years.

e. Salmon, including Chinook, Coho, and Chum, are landed primarily

at south Pacific County ports starting in late June through

November. Pacific County salmon landings declined steadily from

a total of about four million pounds in 1971 to about 2.8 million

pounds in 1974 (see Summary Table 8). Pacific County's share of

Washington State salmon landings also declined over the period.

Coho, the County's most important specie of salmon, decreased from

23 percent of the State harvest in 1971 to ten percent in 1974.

The County's Chinook salmon increased slightly as percent of the

State's total Chinook harvest, from 12 percent in 1971 to 16 percent

in 1973. This share, however, decreased again in 1974 to less than

11 percent (see Summary Table 7).

The percentage of salmon landed at Pacific County ports is a rela-

tively minor part of the total Washington State harvest. However,

the Willapa Basin provides over 630 miles of streams in which
salmon migrate, spawn and rear. 1 The figures for landings

lLeadbetter.Point Environmental Assessment, Washington State, Parks
and Recreation Commission, April, 1974.

in Pacific County do not reflect those salmon originating from

Willapa which are caught by fishermen from other areas who troll

offshore.

The value.of the salmon catch in Pacific County increased from

about $2.2 million in 1971 to about $3.3 in 1973 and then decreased

in 1974 to $2.2 million (see Summary Table 8). From 1971 the steady

decline in fishery productivity was compensated by rising market

value of the salmon catch. The "per pound" price of salmon in-

creased from $0.56 in 1971 to $1.15 in 1973. Conversely, the

decline in value of harvest in 1974 was a result of a decrease

in the value of salmon to $0.76 per pound. These shifts in the

value per pound are a direct result of increases in the demand

for meat substitutes, when beef prices inflated nationwide.

Fluctuations of salmons landings, together with overfishing,

cause salmon fishing to be unstable as a commercial enterprise.

Artificial rearing techniques, however, are being more widely
employed and production and value of salmon are expected to rise.1

lLeadbetter Point Environmental Assessment, Washington State, Parks
and Recreation Commission, April,

C. MANUFACTURING

The Pacific County economy is heavily dependent on manufacturing for

employment and income. Although employment in manufacturing has been

declining in Pacific County since 1970, both absolutely and as a percent

of total employment, manufacturing employment still accounted for more

than 36 percent (1,680 workers) of total employment in 1975. Washington

State's manufacturing employment accounts for about 23 percent of total

which is comparable to the average nationwide.

Manufacturing in Pacific County is centered in two major industries, lumber

and wood products and food processing. In 1975, employment in lumber and

wood products accounted for about 68 percent of total manufacturing employ-

ment, food processing employment accounted for 28 percent, with the remaining

four percent disbursed over other manufacturing activities.

Value added by manufacture is considered to be the best value measure available

for comparing the relative economic importance of manufacturing among industries

and geographic areas. Value added is derived by subtracting the total cost

of materials from the value of shipments. The resulting amount is then adjusted

by the net change in inventories between year beginning and year end. The

final amount is roughly equal to the total wages paid by the industry for the

year, plus a return on the investment in plant and facilities.

According to the 1972 Census of Manufacturers, there were-62 manufacturing

establishments in Pacific County. The value added by manufacturing increased

from $19.8 million in 1967 to $26.8 million in 1972 (see Summary Table 9).
lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars, using the Wholesale Price Index from the
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

SUMMARY TABLE 9

VALUE ADDED BY MANUFACTURING

Pacific County
1967 and 1972 1
(in constant 1975 dollars)

1967 1972

All Manufacturing $19.8 $26.8

Lumber and Wood Products $14.3 $22.4

Difference $ 5.5 $ 4.4

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Wholesale Price Index from
2the Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1975.
Includes food processing, as well as any other minor manufacturing
activities.

Source: Census of Manufacturers, United States Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1967 and 1972.

This increase represents an average annual growth of about 6.24 percent

due almost totally to growth in the value added in lumber and wood products.

The following sections describe the food processing and lumber and wood

products industries of Pacific County in more detail, providing industry

specific information on employment seasonality and payrolls, value added,

and capital facilities.

1.. Food Processing

Food processing is an important component of the Pacific County economy.

Besides lumber and wood products, it is the County's only other major

manufacturing activity. Food processing in Pacific County is almost exclusively

limited to seafood processing. Seafood is processed and sold fresh, frozen,

canned and smoked. Major species processed include oysters, Dungeness crab,

salmon, and to a lesser extent, clams, shrimp and sturgeon. Other food process-

ing activities in the County include a small dairy in Raymond, a cranberry

screening plant in Long Beach, which only operates during the cranberry harvest,

and a custom meat slaughter and cutting operating in South Bend.

a. Employment and Payroll

The food processing industry employed an average of 450 persons during

1975 (see Summary Table 3). This represented 9.9 percent of total

covered employment in Pacific County and nearly 28 percent of all

manufacturing employment. The relative importance of food processing

as a source of employment in Pacific County appears to be declining.

In 1971, food processinj employed 11.4 percent of total covered em-
ployment.1 By 1975, its share of total employment had dropped to 9.9

percent of the total. In other words, even though food processing

employment (in.-absolute-.terms) has remained relatively stable, the

industry has not kept pace with the growth of total employment

within the County.

1970 data is not used for comparison since government employment is not
reflected in the total for that year.

Food processing is one of the most seasonal industries in Pacific

County. Since it employs a significant por 'tion of the work force,

a factor of seasonality is built into the County economy, which is

difficult to counterbalance. In 1975, one standard deviation of

employment in food processing was 14.3 percent of total food processing

emRloyment (see Summary Table 4). This compares with the percent

standard deviation of food processing employment statewide of 10.6

percent in 1975. With t he exception of 1972 (when the standard

deviation was also 14.3 percent of total food processing employment in

the County) and 1975, the seasonality of the food processing industry

in Pacific County is not significantly greater than for the industry,

statewide. The greater seasonality of industry employment in Pacific

County, when it does occur, is largely a result of the fluctuating

nature of fisheries productivity.

In order to meet the local processing employment requirements, the

food processing industry needs a labor force which is larger than its

average monthly employed work force. Several factors are important

in explaining this situation: First, as shown in Section IV-B, FISHING,

the seasons for various fisheries overlap each other. As a result,

workers are not always available to shift from the processing of one

specie to another. Second, the skills necessary to process various

species differ, so that the person qualified as an oyster shucker is

not necessarily qualified as a crab shaker. Finally, many workers are

only providing supplementary family income or are working in an off-

season to a specific commercial fishery and are not interested, for

whatever reason, in working in a full-time, permanent position.

Total covered payroll in the food processing industry increased from

about $2.9 million in 1970 to $3.1 million in 1971 and then declined
1
to $2.7 million in 1975 (see Summary Table 5). This decline was due

to a decline in the food processing work force, discussed above, as

well as to a decline in the average payroll per worker. The average

annual payroll per worker was $6,228 in 1970. Although it fluctuated

slightly over the period, payroll per worker in 1975 was $5,994. State-

wide, food processing payroll per worker also fluctuated slightly, but

ended up increasing from $10,827 per worker per year in 1970 to $11,073

in 1975. Therefore, not only did food processing payroll per worker

decline in Pacific County, while it increased statewide, but the

average annual payroll per worker in Pacific County was less by more

than 40 percent than the average for the State. No one factor is

solely responsible for this situation. The following discussion

describes the primary reasons involved:

First of all seafood processing is more labor intensive and is con-

sidered to require fewer skills than other kinds of food processing.

Food processing workers in Pacific County, therefore, cannot keep pace

with the average payroll per worker statewide which includes those

workers processing the farm products of eastern Washington.

Adjusted to constant 1975 dollars using Consumer Price index, All Items, from
the Statistical Abstract of the United-States for 1975.

Second, a large percentage of food processing workers are persons

who are providing supplementary family income. Many of these people

are only interested in part-time, temporary work and will accept

lower wages in order to collect unemployment benefits in the off-

season months.

Third, and possibly the most important reason, is a problem caused

by the method of reporting employment to Employment Security. Employ-

ment Security samples the work force one week out of each month (the

week including the 15th) and adjusts the reported employment to reflect

employment for the whole month. If the number of people working during

the sample week is unusually high, employment for the month will be

high and vice-versa. In addition, the sample does not distinguish be-

tween part-time and full-time workers or between temporary and perma-

nent workers. Consequently, when dividing industry payroll by average

monthly employment in an area which is relatively more seasonal than

the State, where workers start and quit with greater frequency, a

lower average payroll per worker results.

For a comparative illustration of average annual payroll per worker

for the State and Pacific County, see Summary Table 5.

Per conversations with Arnold Shotwell, Environmental Planner in Pacific
County, which were generally supported by findings of the HRPI telephone
survey.

b. Value Added by Food Processing

Value added for food processing is not listed in the Census of

Manufacturers for Pacific County. The Census of Manufacturers

supposedly reports industries which have 450 employees or more in

a given county. According to Washington State Employment Security,

Pacific County has had at least 470 employees in food processing

since 1970, so there appears to be an oversight on the part of the

Bureau of the Census. It would be advisable to bring this to the

attention of the Bureau.

The value added by food processing in Pacific County may be estimated

by subtracting the value added by lumber and wood products from total

value added. This difference slightly overstates the value added

by food processing since it also includes the value added by printing

and publishing or other minor manufacturing activities which take

place in the County.

The estimated value added by food processing declined from $5.5 million

in 1967 to $4.4 million in 1972 (see Summary Table 9). Fishing and,

therefore, food processing, suffer from year-to-year fluctuations in

the quantity of the harvest. It is possible, therefore, that this

decline is only a result of a relatively poor fisheries harvest year.

Value added per worker in food processing also declined from 1967

to 1972. Employment remained stable while value added decreased; it

is possible that the employment reporting problem discussed with

regard to average payroll per worker, is having a similar affect on

the value added per worker, due to the fact that part-time or temporary

workers are not differentiated from full-time, permanent employees.

c. Capital Facilities

There are 11 food processing plants in Pacific County. Most of these

plants process sea-food; however, in addition, there is a cranberry

screening plant, a custom meat slaughtering plant and a small dairy.

A major portion of the seafood processing plants process oysters. The

oyster plants are old and deteriorating. This is due in major part to

the fact that oyster processing has had no technical innovations and

the equipment used 40 years ago is still used today. In addition, as

has been stated, the industry is labor intensive and as such the relative

importance of capital facilities is diminished.

2. Lumber and Wood Produc ts

Lumber and wood products manufacturing is Pacific County's most important

industry. It employs the largest percentage of people, pays the highest wage

and is one of the least seasonal industries in the County economy.

With the exception of four small logging firms in Naselle, the industry is

centered in the Raymond-South Bend area.

The following discussion will describe this industry's employment, payroll,

value added and capital facilities.

a. Employment and Payroll

Employment in lumber and wood products has been declining since 1972,

both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total employment. From

1,362 workers (29 percent of total employment) in 1972, industry em-

ployment declined to 1,109 (24 percent) in 1975 (see Summary Table 3).

This decline in industry employment is being experienced regionally
ind nationally, as the industry becomes increasingly capital

intensive.

The lumber and wood products industry is dominated by one firm in

Pacific County. As such, when there is a labor dispute or a plant

closure for annual maintenance, employment is severely affected.

Standard deviation is being used in this report as a measure of

employment seasonality. It is an extremely sensitive measure which

will indicate variability of employment. In 1975 one standard

deviation of employment in lumber and wood products was almost 20

percent of average annual industry employment (see Summary Table 4).

This was the highest percent standard deviation of any industry in

the Pacific County economy in that year. The percent standard de-

viation in previous years seldom exceeded four or five percent. In

conversations with Weyerhaeuser it was determined that in one month

of 1975 there was a general plant closure for annual maintenance.

In other words, the high percent standard deviation in 1975 in lumber

and wood products was not due to seasonality, but rather to the

variability of industry employment due to the dominance of one firm.

Total covered payrolls for lumber and wood products are the highest

of any industry in Pacific County. In 1975 the lumber and wood

products payroll accounted for 34 percent of total covered payrolls

in the County. This percentage, however, is much lower.than it was

in 1971 when lumber and wood products payrolls accounted for
1
48 percent of total payrolls in the County (see Summary Table 5).

The average annual payroll per worker in lumber and wood products

is also the highest of all County industries. In 1970, average

payroll per worker was $12,389; this figure increased to a high of
$13,333 in 1972 and then declined to $12,918 in 1975.2 Lumber and

1970 data is not used since government payrolls are not reflected in that year
and it is, therefore, not comparable.
2
Adjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index, All Items,
from the U. S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of.'the United States, 1975.

wood products is the only industry in Pacific County which has an

average payroll per worker which exceeds that of Washington State for

the same industry. The average annual payroll per worker in lumber

and wood products for Washington State was $12,086 in 1970 and $12,463

in 1975. The fluctuations within this period were similar to those

experienced in Pacific County.

Despite labor-saving technology, lumber and wood products employment

should remain relatively stable in the future'due to increased

production.,

b. Quantity and Value of Timber Harvest

According to the Timber Harvest Report, between 1970 and 1974 about

95 percent or more of the timber harvested in Pacific County came from
privately-owned forest land.1 The next largest ownership harvested was

State forest land,. which varied between one and six percent of total

harvest over the period. In 1974, of the total 432,993 thousa'nd board

feet (Mbf) of timber harvested, 425,650 Mbf came from privately-owned

land (see Summary Table 10). The major species of timber harvested

in Pacific County are hemlock, Douglas fir, cedars, and Sitka spruce.

In 1974 almost 95 percent of the private timber harvested was from

these species.

Timber Harvest Report, Washington State, Department of Natural Resources, 1970-74.

SUMMARY TABLE 10

TIMBER HARVESTED - ALL OWNERSHIPS

Pacific County
1970-1974
(in percent)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

Private Lands 97.6 96.1 94.0 95.9 98.3

State Lands 2.4 3.7 5.9 3.9 0.9

Other Public Non-Federal - - - 0.3 0.8
Other Federal 1 - 0.2 - -

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

lNot including United States Forest Service or Bureau of Indian
Affairs lands.
*Insignificant cut.

Note: Percentage may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Human Resources Planning Institute, based on statistics from
Timber Harvest Report, State of Washington, Department of
Natural Resources, 1970-1974.

54.

The value added by lumber and wood products manufacturing grew from
$14.3 million in 1967 to $22.4 million in 1972.1 More important,

however, the industry accounted for 72 percent of total value added

by manufacturing in 1967 and grew to almost 84 percent of total
value added in 1972 (see Summary Table 9). This supports the fact

that although industry employment and payrolls are declining, the

productivity of the industry is increasing.

c. Capital Facilities

According to the Washington Mill Survey conducted by the Department

of Natural Resources, Pacific County has two sawmills, eight shake

and shingle mills and four export wood products mills. Both sawmills

have a barker, chipper, planer, and a kiln. Of the other mills,
two have chippers and five have burners.

Conversations with.sources at Weyerhaeuser's Raymond office indicate

that the company's installations in Pacific County are well maintained.

Weyerhaeuser is presently in the process of developing and finalizing

capital plans for 1977. These plans will include plant improvements

responding to environmental legislation, as well as to production

efficiency. In early 1977, the company will close a shingle mill in

Raymond which will affect about 30 jobs.

Adjusted to constant 1972 dollars using the Wholesale Price Index, Wood
Products, from the Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1975.

3. Other Manufacturing

Other manufacturing activities in Pacific County consist of local newspapers

(printing and publishing), some small machine shops in South Bend, a boat

builder and a trophy manufacturer in Ilwaco, and a manufacturer of concrete
products in Chinook.1

Employment in other manufacturing is minimal; however, it increased steadily

from 45 people in 1970 to 58 people in 1974. In 1975 employment declined

to 53 employees accounting for 11 percent of total employment or three

percent of total manufacturing employment (see Summary Table 3).

Historically, other manufacturing has shown a relatively high degree of

variability in employment. However in 1975, the percent standard deviation

of other manufacturing (including printing and publishing) was low compared

with other industries as well as to its own historical trend of percent

standard deviation (see Summary Table 4).

Average annual payroll per worker increased slightly for printing and

publishing workers from $4,428 in 1970 to $4,587 in 1975 and for other

manufacturing workers from $8,503 in 1970 to $8,546 in 1975. These rates

compare to statewide averages in 1975 of $11,018 per worker in printing

and publishing and $14,305 per worker in other manufacturing (see Summary
Table 5).2 The State's average is higher in printing and publishing

due primarily to larger corporations located in metropolitan areas

Directory of Washington Manufacturers 1974 Washington State Department of
Commerce and Economic Development, Trade Development Division.

Adjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index, All Items,
from the U. S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1975.

of the State which require greater skills.

Manufacturing (without printing and publishing) statewide includes aerospace

and other transportation equipment manufacturing, where wages are higher and

employment is not seasonal.

As shown, other manufacturing sectors in Pacific County are small and are

relatively unimportant to the County economy at the present time.

D. TOURISM

Tourism, as an industry, is not broken out by county in any serial publica-

tion, such as the Census. This is due primarily to the fact that tourism

actually overlaps the service and retail trades industries. The employ-

ment and dollars accruing to tourism are, therefore, difficult to identify

with certainty and are easily subject to double accounting.

In order to provide some estimate of employment and payrolls accruing to

tourism in a form which can be updated with relative ease, the following

technique will be employed:

ESTIMATING TECHNIQUE-TOURIST INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS

The tourist industry is assumed to consist of auto dealers/service

stations and eating/drinking places, retail trade and amusement/

recreation and hotel/other lodging places services. Due to the nature

of the industry, employment is highly seasonal. The influx of tourists

to Pacific County starts in about May of each year and phases

out in September and October. The biggest tourist months are July,

August and September. Because of the availability of payroll data on

a quarterly basis, the tourist season, for purposes of estimating

employment and payroll, will be defined as the third quarter of

each year (July through September). Based on data available monthly

on covered employment and payrolls by industry from Washington State

Employment Security, average monthly employment will be calculated

for the three-month summer tourist season (Column 1 , Average Monthly

Employment, Summer, Comprehensive Data Book (CDB) Table IV-D-1. Average

monthly employment will also be computed for the nine-month off-season

(Column 2, Average Monthly Employment, Off-Season, CDB, Table IV-D-1).

Column 2 will be subtracted from Column 1. The difference is assumed

to be that employment associated with tourism (Column 3, Average Monthly

Employment, Tourism, CDB, Table IV-D-1).

Next, the Average Summer Wage Per Worker is computed by dividing third

quarter payrolls by third quarter average monthly employment (Column 4,

Average Summer Wage Per Worker, CDB Table IV-D-1).

Multiplying Column 3 by Column 4 produces the annual payroll associated

with the tourist industry (Column 5, Tourism Payroll, CDB, Table IV-D-1).

The only exception to this estimation technique is made for the "hotel

and other lodging places" sector of the services industry. Few people

stay in hotels, motels, campgrounds, etc. in the area in which they reside.

Therefore, hotels and other lodging places employment should accrue in

total to the tourist industry. Employment and payrolls associated with

the tourist industry are shown in detail in CDB Table IV-D-1, 1970-1975.

Overall, the estimated employment and payrolls are felt to be understated.

The figures include the effects of increased economic activity in other

industries during the summer, however, they do not include employment in

the tourist season fringe months of May and October, self-employment

not covered by Employment Security, or tourist-related employment in

such industries as food processing. The estimation technique will be

used since Pacific County planners can update the figures relatively

easily and because the estimation will show industry trends. However,

development of the tourist industry will be important to the economy

of the County over the next decade. This development would be greatly

facilitated by a special study which would determine the actual

economic contribution made by the tourist industry and which would

develop a methodology for the on-going collection of a relevant data

base.

The tourist industry in Pacific County is centered in the southern

part of the County on the Long Beach Peninsula. According to a 1970

Battelle Northwest study in the Long Beach area, clamdig ging, beach-

combing, charter boat fishing, and driving on the beach are important
tourist activities.1 These and various other activities result in

tourist expenditures on lodging, food, gas and entertainment while

visiting Pacific County. The following discussion will describe the

estimated employment and payrolls associated with tourism, the value

of tourism to the Pacific County economy, and the capital facilities

associated with the industry.

1. Employment and Payroll

Estimated employment in the tourist industry in Pacific County averaged

about 358 persons per month during the months of July, August and

September of 1975. This employment converts to 90 people on a year-

round basis (358 people x 3 summer months 12 months of the year).

As such, industry employment accounted for three percent of total non-

manufacturing employment in Pacific County in 1975 (or two percent of

117he Future of the Long Beach Peninsula Seashore, Battelle Northwest, for
Pacific County Commissioners and the Washington State Parks and Recrea-
tion Commission, June, 1970. 60

total employment). It is perhaps more revealing to view tourist

industry employment on an average monthly basis for only the three

summer months. During the summer months of 1975, for instance, tourist
industry employment incre@sed to about 13 percent of total non-manufactur-

ing employment or seven percent of total employment.

As indicated in Summary Table 11, tourist industry employment is made

up of two sectors of the services industry, amusement/recreation and

hotels/other lodging places, and two sectors of retail trade, auto
dealers/service stations and eating/drinking places.1 The major

employer of these four sectors is hotels and other lodging places which

accounted for 51 percent of tourist industry employment in 1970. This

share has increased since 1970, probably due to an increase in estab-

lishments. The percent share of tourist industry employment commanded

by eating and drinking places has declined from about 44 percent in

1970 to about 32 percent in 1975. This decline is probably due in

large part to a rise in the use of recreational vehicles, such as

camper-vans, which accommodate easy and cheaper meal preparation.

Total tourist industry employment increased from 251 people in 1970 to

358 people in 1975 (in average monthly employment for the three summer

months). Growth in industry employment was slow from 1972 to 1974 due

in major part to the gas shortages experienced nationwide. Total

employment increased significantly from 290 people in 1974 to 358 in

1975. This increase is explained in part by the addition of a new

lAmusement and recreation services includes the employment in the
important charter boat fishing ind ustry.

SUMMARY TABLE 11

SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL

Pacific County Tourist Industry
1970-1975

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

4-) co 4-) M 4--) CY) 4--)

C"i CIQ C"d d)
E E E E E
>11 >_' >1 - >). >) >1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
r- S_ S_ S_ -
CL >) CL >1 0_ >) O_ >) CL
E ro E (a E E ro E
LLJ a- LU 0- LU LU a- w

Services
Amusement and Recreation 28 $29,320 27 $37,030 25 $32,080 37 $44,920 44 $64,950 84 $150,780

Hotels and Other Lodging
Places 104 63,300 104 61,510 135 87,650 122 95,410 155 162,670 184 156,400

Retail Trade
Auto Dealers and
Service Stations 8 13,340 .18 27,710 17 27,860 8 13,910 15 26,970 24 41,710

Eating and Drinking
Places 111 111,780 126 128,010 104 11 850 111 119,760 76 80,380 116 126,210

Total 251 $217,740 275 $254,260 281 $261,440 278 $274,000 290 $334,970 358 W5,100

lAverage monthly employment during summer tourist months.
2Average monthly summer employment-multiplied by average summer (three month) payroll.
3'@djusted to constant 1975 dollars using CPI Index for Health and Recreation, Other Goods
and Services from the Statistical Abstract for the United States, 1975.

Source: Estimated by HRPI using data from Employment Payrolls in Washington State
by County and Industry, Industries Covered by the Employment Security
Act, No. 117, 1975.

120-unit hotel in Long Beach, but probably more importantly by a

recovery of the tourist industry in general after the gas shortage.

The tourist industry in Pacific County (or more specifically on the

Long Beach Peninsula) is similar to the industry in general, with

respect to its extreme seasbnaltiy. However, little can be done to

stabilize the seasonal fluctuations since the industry is responding

to the natural cycles of sport fisheries, as well as to people's

ability and desire to travel during the summer when the weather is

nice and children are out of school.

The seasonality of the tourist industry is supported by the percent

standard deviation of employment in the services and retail trade

industries. In 1975 one standard deviation in services employment

was 19 percent of total employment in that industry. Similarly, the

standard deviation in retail trade employment was 13 percent of

total employment in that industry (see Summary Table 4). As measured

by percent standard deviation these industries are some of the most

seasonal industries in the economy.

Based on the estimating technique described at the beginning of this

section,payrolls in the tourist related industries grew from 217,740

in 1970 and to 475,100 in 1975. This growth in total tourism pay-

rolls represents a substantial average annual increase of 13 percent.

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the CPI Index for Health and
Recreation, Other*Goods and Services from the Statistical Abstract
of the United States, 1975.

Tourist industry payroll, however, only accounts for about one percent

of total payrolls in Pacific County.

2. Value of Tourism

The value of the tourist industry in Pacific County is difficult to

estimate. Statistics are available which estimate the value for

various components of the industry, such as hunting, fishing, lodging

and kindred services. However, these data are not prepared in a com-

parable form which would allow one to simply sum the value of each

component. In addition, one must choose whether to evaluate the value

of recreation activity to the tourist or the value of such activity to

the economy.

In the following discussion the value of tourism to the Pacific County

economy will be presented based on data published by the Travel Division

of the Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development.

Travel expenditure statistics by County were first developed by the

Department in 1974. Data for 1975 has recently been published and the

Department expects to continue its annual publication.

The Department estimated lodging expenditures to be, on an average,

62 percent of retail expenditures for hotels and other lodging place

services which include associated services such as restaurants, service

stations, and laundries. This percentage was applied to taxable retail

sales for hotels/motels in Pacific County available quarterly from

the Washington State Department of Revenue.1 Results from the 1972

National Travel Expenditure Study indicated that an average of 11

percent of expenditures by travelers in Washington goes for lodging

Applying 11 percent to the estimated lodging expenditure figures,

then, will yield total travel expenditures.

Summary Table 12 presents travel expenditure data, computed in the
above fashion, for Pacific County for 1974 and 1975.2 In 1974 total

travel expenditures in Pacific County were estimated to be $10.8

million. This figure increased to $12.0 million in 1975. A more

revealing statistic is the percent travel expenditures are of local

retail sales. In 1974 travel expenditures accounted for 23.9 percent

of local retail sales. This percentage increased in 1975 to 24.5

percent, indicating the growing importance of the tourist industry to

the Pacific County economy.

Travel expenditures per capita in Pacific County grew from $685 in

1974 to $756 in 1975. Pacific County ranked sixth of the 39 counties

in Washington for travel expenditures per capita.

The above figures on total travel expenditures are felt to be the most

accurate on an industry-wide basis and the data base is available with

which to update the statistics yearly.

lQuarterly Business Review, Washington State Department of Revenue.
2The dollar figures are shown in current dollars, since no applicable
price index could be identified to update the figures to constant
dollars.

=wMw Nommm""Maw wmawww mom

SUMMARY TABLE 12

DISTRIBUTION OF TRAVEL EXPENDITURES

Pacific County
1974 and 1975

Travel
Lodging Total Travel % of Local Expenditures
Expenditures Expenditures Retail % of Total Per Capita.
Year Millions of $ Millions of $ Sales E penditures (Dollars)

1974 1.2 10.8 23.9 1.1 685.00

1975 1.3 12.0 24.5 1.3 756.00

Source: Distribution of Travel Expenditures, Was hington State Department of Commerce and Economic
Development, Travel Division, 1976.

Activities which contribute to the tourist industry such as clamdigging,

hunting, camping, sightseeing, etc. have values which can be estimated.

Attempts are being made currently to make these value estimates; the
attempts, however, are not organized under any one agency and the

techniques and methodologies employed differ by activity. The scope of

this study does not allow a discussion on a broad range of individual

tourist activities which would not yield comparable statisitics. However,

the importance of sports fishing in Pacific County, in terms of both

direct and indirect income generated, and the availability of data

warrant a special, albiet brief, discussion of sport fishing.

Sports fishing, especially deep-sea charter boat fishing, is an

important part of the tourist industry on the Long Beach Peninsula.

The Washington Salmon Sport Catch REport available from punch card

returns from the Washington State Department of Fisheries (1971-

1974), gives statistics on

* number of marine salmon (by species) caught and marine

angler trips by marine area

* number of freshwater salmon caught by stream

9 number of marine salmon caught by marine area and by

angler residence

These statistics are presented in CDB Tables IV-D-2-a through

IV-D-2-d. Statistics for 1975 have not yet been published;

however, based on a telephone conversation with Gene Nye,

Department of Fisheries, there were 308,475 sport salmon caught

in Pacific County in 1975. Sport salmon average about six or

seven pounds each and based on prices received by commercial

C-7

fisherman ($1.00 to $1.20 per pound) the wholesale value of the

sport salmon catch in about $2.5 million.

Additional data on tourist-related activities are available through

the Washington State Game Department, the U.S. Department of the

Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, the Washington State Interagency

Committee on Outdoor Recreation, the Travel Division of the Washington

State Department of Commerce and Economic Development (DC and ED),

Washington State Department of Fisheries, and the Washington AssocTation

of Conservation Districts. At the present time, no data exist, with

the exception of that presented from DC and ED, which prepares and

consolidates tourist expenditures by activity type by county.

3. Capital Facilities

The development of a viable tourist industry in Pacific County has been

retarded, at least in part, by the large number of small, aging or

obsolescent tourist accommodations.

The Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) listed 79 licensed

hotels and motels in Pacific County in 1972. Of those, 53 has less

than 10 units, 21 had 11 to 25 units, and only three had more than 25

units. The licensed establishments had a total of 769 units, of which

29 units were without bath (see CDB Table IV-D-3).

Since 1972 the largest new tourist facility to be constructed is the

120-unit Chatauqua Hotel. This facility lacks a meeting room suitable

for conferences and conventions, but plans to add on in 1977 or 1978.

Although the number of lodging units has increased, in May 1976, DSHS

listed 74 hotels and motels, of which 71 were currently licensed,

indicating that several of the older hotels and/or motels have gone

out of business since 1972.

In addition to service and retail trade establishments, such recreation

facilities as golf courses, beaches and youth camps are relevant. The

Washington Association of Water Conservation Districts made an inventory

of private outdoor recreation facilities by county in Washington State

in 1974. Data for Pacific County were obtained through the. Cooperative

Extension Service in Pullman, Washington and a copy of the detailed

listing is presented in the Comprehensive Data Book, Table IV-D-4.

Summary Table 13 summarizes these data. Campgrounds and trailer parks

are the primary types of private recreation facilities.

Summary Table 14 presents public recreation acreage by ownership.1

The State and federal governments are the largest owners of public

recreation land in Pacific County.

Finally, Summary Table 15, Recreation Land by Type, shows the number

of acres of land in Pacific County associated with 13 of the 21 area

types defined-in the Washington Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor
Recreation and Open Space Plan, (SCORP), 1973.2 According to SCORP,

there were 47,287 acres of recreation land, both private and public,

developed and undeveloped, in Pacific County,in 1971. This acreage

lWashington Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation and Open Space
Plan, Interagency Committee for Outdoor Recreation, Vol. II, May, 1973.
2;,-I@@j -@ . I
Cn

SUMMARY TABLE 13

INVENTORY OF PRIVATE OUTDOOR RECREATION FACILITIES

Pacific County
1974

Type Number

Campground 66

Field Sports Areas 1

Golfing Facilities 2

Historic and Archeological Sites I

Hunting Area s 2

Picnic Areas 1

Recreation Resorts 1

Rodeo, Zoo, Outdoor Theater, etc. 2

Trails 1

Water Sports Areas 3

Total 80

Profit-Oriented Facilities - 71

Non-Profit Facilities - 9

Source: Inventory of Private Outdoor Recreation Facilities, Washington
Association of Water Conservation Districts, 1974. Available
from Cooperative Extension Service, Pullman, Washington.

SUMMARY TABLE 14

INVENTORY OF PUBLIC RECREATION LAND

Pacific County
1971

Local Agencies Acres

City 62
County 114
Port District 23

State Agencies

Department of Game 909
Department of Natural Resources 1778
Institutions of Higher Education 523
Parks and Recreation 3276

Federal A2encies

Bureau of Land Management 4
Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife 9608

Source: Washington Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation and
Open Space Plan, (SCORP), Interagency Committee for Outdoor
Recreation, Vol. II; May, 1973.

SUMMARY TABLE 15

RECREATION LAND BY TYPE

Pacific County
1971

Area Types Acres

Private 16,300

Small Urban Recreation 50

Large Urban Recreation 16

Regional Recreation 1,965

Forest 1,778

Wildlife Habitat 1,694

Freshwater Shoreline 38

Saltwater Shoreline 485

Urban Malls and Squares

Wetl ands 9,608

Historicai/Cultural 686

Small Urban School Sites 5

Water Bodies 14,662

Lakes/Ponds 20

Rivers 923

Streams/Creeks 657

Pacific Coast 12,862

Total Recreation Land 47,287

*Insignificant Acreage
Source: Washington Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation
and Open Space Plan, Interagency Committee for Outdoor
Recreation, Vol. II; May, 1973.

represents about eight percent of the total acreage in.the County.

Much of Pacific County's recreation land is un- or under-developed at

the present time. Private investors, however, are viewing the potential

of the tourist industry in Pacific County more seriously. The feasibility

of facilities such as a convention center on the Long Beach Peninsula and

campgrounds in the northern part of the County is presently under study.

Development of the tourist industry in Pacific County holds the promise

of improving the economy of the County while at the same time maintaining

the area's environmentally sensitive character. Further, more organized

study of this industry is warranted. Studies should be initiated which

will produce an acceptable list of public and private recreational develop-

ment, develop criteria with which to prioritize projects, determine the
feasibility of individual projects, seek sources of funding, and prepare

a workable time table for implementation.

E. SERVICES

The services industry in Pacific County is made up primarily of establish-

ments offering such services as lodging, automotive repair, amusement and

recreation and legal services. Due to the greater degree of tourism

which takes place in the southern part of the County, the number of ser-

vice establishments in that area constitutes a major percentage of the

total County industry.

The following discussion will describe the industry's employment, payroll,

value of receipts and capital facilities. The primary data sources which

will be used are Washington State Employment Security for covered employ-

ment and payrolls and the Census of Selected Services.

1. Employment and Payroll

According to quarterly reports of covered employment from Washington

State Employment Security (1970-75), employment in the services industry

in Pacific County grew from about 320 employees in 1970 to 500 employees

in 1975. This increase represents an average annual growth over the six

year period of about 7.1 percent making services the fastest growing

industry in the economy. With the exception of 1975, services employment

has accounted for about nine to ten percent of total employment in Pacific

County. In 1975, the industry's percent share of total employment grew
to about 13 percent (see Summary Table 3). Growth in services employment

is being experienced nationwide as leisure time and real personal income

continue to rise.

Services employment is extremely seasonal in Pacific County due to the

impact of tourism in the southern portion of the County. Such amenities

as deep sea fishing, clamdigging and the various other attractions of the

ocean beaches draw visitors from all over the Northwest who need gas,

lodging and food. The standard deviation of service employment shown 'as a
percent of total industry employment was about � 19 percent in 1975 (see

Summary Table 4). In 1970 a standard deviation was � 13 percent of total

service industry employment. The increase in the standard deviation of

employment is indicative of the growth in tourist-related service employ-

ment over the 1970-75 period. See Section IV-D, TOURISM, for a more

detailed discussion of tourism employment.

According to covered payroll statistics from Washington State Employment

Security, the average annual payroll per worker in the service industry
grew from $4,348 in 1970 to $4,886 in 1975 (see Summary Table5 ).1 These

figures compare with average annual payroll per worker in services for

Washington State of $7,750 in 1970 and $7,957 in 1975. No one factor is

solely responsible for the discrepancy in per-worker payroll between the

County and the State. The extreme seasonality of the industry contributes.

Many of the workers hired during the summer months, work only part-time.

The wages accruing to these people are part-time wages. However, the

method of counting workers serves to reduce the average payroll per worker.

Although this procedural condition holds true all over the state, the

fluctuation in summer-time employment as shown by the percent standard

lAdjusted to 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index, All Items,
U. S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

deviation is not as great statewide. See Section II-D for a more detailed,

discussion of average payroll per worker.

Total annual services payroll grew from $1.4 million in 1970 to about

$2.4 million in 1975. Based on this calculation, the service industry

payroll accounted for about six percent of total payrolls in Pacific

County in 1975.

2. Value of Receipts

Data on the value of receipts for the service industry are taken from

the Census of Selected Services. Although this census does not give

detail on all service establishments, it is the best source of data

available. Selected services for which detail is provided are: hotels,

motels, trailer parks and campgrounds; automotive repair services; amuse-

ment and recreation services, including motion pictures; and, legal

services.

According to the 1972 Census of Selected.Services, receipts from all

service establishments equalled $3,645,000. About 31 percent (or $1,123,000)

of receipts were generated by establishments in Raymond, with the remaining

69 percent coming from the rest of Pacific County. The major portion of

these remaining receipts can be attributed to the service establishments

on the Long Beach Peninsula.

The selected services of greatest importance are hotels and other lodging

places and amusement and recreation. Of the total $1,036,000 in receipts

for hotels and other lodging places in 1972, (.28 percent of receipts from
all service establishments) 93 percent or $964,000 were generated by

establishments outside Raymond. Receipts for amusement and recreation

were not disaggregated by geographic location due to disclosure; however,

it may be assumed that a similar or higher percentage of the $692,000 in

receipts for this sector were generated by establishments outside of

Raymond.

For a more detailed listing of receipts by selected service, see Compre-

hensive Data Book, Table IV-E-2.

3. Capital Facilities

As with the value of receipts for the service.industry, the best available

source of data is the Census of Selected Services. See Section IV-E-2

for a description of this data source.

According to the 1972 Census of Selected Services, there were 206 service

establishments in Pacific County. Seventy-three percent, or 151 establish-

ments were located outside of Raymond. It may be assumed that the major

portion of these 151 establishments are located on the Long Beach Peninsula.

Hotels and other lodging places accounted for about 30 percent (62 establish-

ments) of the service establishments in the County. About 94 percent of

the hotels and other lodging places were located outside of Raymond. For

a more detailed listing of servi.ce establishments in Pacific County, see

CDB Table I.V-E-2. A 1972 survey of hotel-motel accommodations, conducted

by the Washington State Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS),

showed 79 hotel/motel establishments in Pacific County. It is difficul-t

to say which report is more accurate; the results of the DSHS survey are

presented in CDB Table IV-E-3.

Growth in the number of service establishments has occurred and will

probably continue to occur primarily on the Long Beach Peninsula. One

of the newest and largest establishments is the 120-unit Chautauqua

Hotel in Long Beach.

In addition, business interests in the Ilwaco-Long Beach area are pre-

sently trying to determine the feasibility of a convention center in

the area. Probably the most significant deterrent to the growth in

tourism and therefore, in services, has been the remoteness of Pacific

County from large population centers With the growing desire of people

to be in a more natural setting, however, the remoteness of the County

could be a plus to the services industry in the long-run.

F. WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

The wholesale and retail trade industry in Pacific County consists primarily

of retail trade, both in terms of employment and number of establishments.

The following discussion of trends in employment, payroll, value of the

industry, and capital facilities will relate primarily to retail trade.

Data, however, will be presented for the whole industry, unless otherwise

stated.

Retail trade includes establishments such as food stores, eating and drink-

ing places, gasoline stations, and apparel stores. As with services, a

major percentage of trade establishments are in southern Pacific County on

.the Long Beach Peninsula. This is due to the greater incidence of tourism

in that area.

The primary data sources used in following discussion of the trade industry

are the Census of Retail Trade, the Census of Wholesale Trade and Washington

State Employment Security.

1. Employment and Payroll
According to the Covered Employment and Wages reports published by
Washington State Employment Security, the trade industry in Pacific County
has experienced relatively stable employment from 1970 to 1975 see Summary
Table 3). In 1970 the industry employed about 730 people; employment grew
to about 760 workers in 1971 and 1972. Employment declined again in 1973

and 1974 to about 730 workers and increased to about 760 in 1975. These

fluctuations in average annual employment do not account for more than

four percent of i.ndustry employment and are not considered significant.

The trade industry is a major employer in Pacific County accounting for

about 17 percent of total County employment. The industry is a tourist-

related industry, and as such, is one of the most seasonal industries in

the County economy. Between 1970 and 1975, the percent standard devia-

tion of employment varied between 12 and 14 percent of trade employment.

The percent standard deviation of trade employment statewide varied between

one and four percent over the same period (see Summary Table 4).

According to covered payroll statistics from Washington State Employment

Security the average payroll per worker in the Pacific County trade indus-

try was $6,043 in 1970, $5,963 in 1971, $6,295 in 1972, $5,996 in 1973,
$5,922 in 1974, and $5,906 in 1975 (see Summary Table 5).1 These fluctua-

tions are probably due to the fact that the only retail trade sector

which is well unionized is chain food stores. Cost-of-living increases

in other sectors are probably erratic and do not keep pace with increases

in the cost of living. As shown in Summary Table 5, the average payroll

per worker in Washington State exhibited similar trends from 1970 to 1975.

According to Washington State Employment Security, Covered/Employment and

Wage reports, total payroll for the trade industry in constant 1975 dollars

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. All
Items from the Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

grew from about $4.4 million in 1970 to about $4.5 million in 1975.1/2 In

1975 the trade industry payroll accounted for about 11 percent of total

payrolls in Pacific County.

2. Value of Sales

The best measure for the value of the wholesale and retail trade industry is

the value of sales. The Census of Wholesale Trade and the Census of Retail

Trade are the data sources which will be used in the following discussion.

The value of sales in wholesale and retail trade grew from $42,040,000 in
3/4
1967 and to $43,431,000 in 1972. Wholesale trade accounted for $8,209,000

in 1967 and $8,430,000 in 1972 or about 20 percent of total sales in both

years. Due to disclosures problems, sub-County detail is not available for

wholesale trade.

Retail trade sales were $33,831,000 in 1967 and $34,901,000 in 1972,
accounting for 80 percent of total trade sales over the period.4 Comparable

detail for retail sales in Raymond is available for both 1967 and 1972.

Retail sales in Raymond declined from $15,264,000 (45 percent of total

retail sales) in 1967 to $14,533,000 (42 percent of total retail sales) in

1972. Conversely, the remainder of Pacific County grew in the value of

lEmployment and Payrolls in Washington State by County and by Industry,
Industries Covered by Employment Security Act, Employmen:F--Security,
Washington State, 1970 75
7 !3 -
2Adjusted to 1975 dollars using-Consumer Price Index, All Items from
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975. -
3Adjusted to constant [email protected] using the Wholesale Price Index from
the Statistical Abstract Of the United.States, 1975..
4Adjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index from the
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

retail sales, from $18,566,000 (55 percent of total retail sales) in 1967 to

$20,368,000 (58 percent of total retail sales) in 1972. This geographic

shift in respective shares of total retail sales is consistent with the

growing importance of the Long Beach Peninsula for recreation and tourism

(see Summary Table 16

3. Capital Facilities

According to the Censuses of Wholesale and Retail Trade there were 230 trade

establishments in Pacific County in 1972. The number of wholesale trade

establishments remained constant at 24 from 1967 to 1972. The number of

retail trade establishments increased by 12 establishments, from 194 (89

percent) in 1967 to 206 (90 percent) in 1972.

Comparable detail for sub-County areas is not available for wholesale trade

due to disclosures problems. However, the Census of Retail Trade indicates

that the number of retail establishments in Raymond increased from 52 in

1967 to 56 in 1972. The number'of establishments in the remainder of

Pacific County increased from 142 in 1967 to 153 in 1972. From 1967 to

1972, the respective shares of total retail establishments of Raymond and

the rest of Pacific County remained constant at 27 percent and 73 percent,

respectively (see Summary Table 16).

SUMMARY TABLE T6

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS AND SALES

Pacific County and Raymond
1967 and 1972

Retail Trade Wholesale Total-Trade
($11QOOT ($1-10-0OT ($1,000)
Estab. Sales Estab. Sales Estab. Sales-

1972 - Pacific County 206 $34,901 24 $8,530 230 $43,431
Raymond 56 14,533 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Remainder of County 153 20,368 N/A N/A N/A N/A

1967 - Pacific County 194 33,831 24 8,209 218 42,040
Raymond 52 15,264 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Remainder of County 142 18,566 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Source: Census of Retail Trade, United States Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1967 and 1972.

Census of Wholesale Trade, United States Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1967 and 1972.

G. TRANSPORTATION

The economic data on transportation industry is aggregated with the communi-

cations and utilities industries. Together the three industries (TCU) only

play a minor role in terms of overall County employment. Transportation,

especially waterborne transportation, has experienced some changes in

recent years which could affect the Pacific County economy. The following

discussion, therefore, will describe the TCU industry with the primary

focus on transportation.

1. Employment and Payroll

Employment in TCU accounted for only 4.5 percent of total employment in

Pacific Count y in 1975. Industry employment has fluctuated slightly since

1970, but overall has remained relatively stable averaging about 207

employees on an average annual basis (see Summary Table 3). Transporta-

tion accounts for about 35 percent (or 70 employees) of total TCU employ-

ment on the average (communications is the largest employing sector of
TCU).l The transportation industry i n Pacific County is made up primarily

of trucking, warehousing, railroad and waterborne commerce employment.

Railroad employment is not reflected by the employment figures since it

is not covered by the Employment Security Act.

Employment associated with waterborne commerce, such as longshoremen, has

been reduced in recent years. due to the decision by the Corps of Engineers

to discontinue deep-draft dredging of Willapa River and Harbor. Weyerhaeuser,

lCovered employment data from Washington State Employment Security.

the major deep-draft shipper out of the Port of Willapa Harbor, has trans-

ferred all of its shipping to Grays Harbor. This decision by the Corps

could have an affect on other future waterborne activities of Willapa

River and Harbor. The State's new shrimp fishing industry presently

1 ands most of i ts catch at Wi 11 apa Bay ports .However, if channel

conditions at the bar to WillapaBay become more unstable, the industry

could decide to transfer to another port with more reliable navigation

conditions.

Trucking is probably the largest employing sector of transportation in

Pacific County. (This is difficult to verify, however, since total

employment estimates for Pacific County are inaccurate). The lumber

and wood products industry has historically required trucks to trans-

port logs from the forest to the mills. However, in addition, export

logs which-in-the past were shipped out of the Port of Willa0a Harbor

by water.,.are now being.trucked to the Port of Grays Harbor for export

to Pacific Rim countries.

Railroad empl oyment in Pacific County is minimal but important. Weyer-

haeuser ships much of its lumber by rail to inland states. Even this
operation, however, is reduced from what it used to be since the cost of

rail shipping has increased to the point that Weyerhaeuser can no longer

compete with the Canadians for east coast lumber markets.

One standard deviation of employment in TCU in 1975 was eight percent of

total TCU employment (see Summary Table4 ). This figure is much reduced

from the early 1970's when one standard deviation was 41--en or 11 percent

of industry employment. The standard deviation for Washington State TCU

is only one to three percent, normally. This divergence between State

and County indicates industry employment in Pacific County is relatively

more erratic.

The average payroll per worker in TCU in Pacific County fell from about

$10,100 in 1970 to $9,700 in 1975. Throughout the period payroll per worker

was less than the statewide average which increased from about $12,900

in 1970 to $13,700 in 1975 (see Summary Table 5). The decline in payroll

per worker, as well as the relatively low payroll per worker in Pacific

County, is likely a result of the comparative lack of industry unioniza-

tion in the County when compared to Washington State.

Total payrolls in TCU reflect the decrease in average worker payrolls and

declined from about $1.97 million in 1970 to $1.95 million in 1975. In

1975 TCU payrolls ac counted for about five percent of total payrolls in

Pacific County.

lAdjusted to constant 1975 dollars using the Consumer Price Index, All
Items, U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1975.

H. GOVERNMENT

Government employment has special data problems which require this industry

to be disaggregated into federal, state and local government employment.

The different levels of government have different coverage under Employ-

ment Security. Federal government employment is totally covered by its

own federally-funded employment insurance program. Most of State govern-

ment employment is covered by the Washington Employment Security Act;

however, participation in the program is optional and there are still

certain workers, such as part-time or temporary help at Statecolleges,

which are not covered. Very little local government employment is covered.

Again, the program is optional and most city and county agencies, in

addition to local schools, have opted not to cover their employees. State

and local government were only given the option to provide coverage for

their employees in January of 1971. For this reason, government employ-

ment data will only be provided back to 1971.

Washington State Department of Employment Security publishes two sets of
employment data. The first, Covered Employment and Wages_, reports only
the actual employment covered by the Employment Security Act. The
second, Total Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Employment, reports esti-
mated total employment; that is, covered employment, as well as uncovered
employment. Normally, this second publication is used in describing
employment by industry. However, for several different years in Pacific
County the estimates of total employment were less than covered employment.

which by definition is impossible. For this reason discussions of employ-

ment by industry use actual covered employment data.

For a discussion of government employment however, since so much of it is

uncovered, a combination of total and covered employment statistics must be

used. Total government employment from the Total Non-Agricultural Wage and

Salary Employment report will be used. From this figure, covered federal

government employment (which is totally covered) will be subtracted.

Although State.government employment is not totally covered, the primary

people who are not covered are part-time and temporary employees of State

colleges. Pacific County does not have a significant number of these people.

Therefore, covered State government employment will be assumed to closely

approximate total State employment and will also be subtracted from total

government employment. The balance will equal local government employment.

Summary Table 17 presents government employment from 1971 to 1975 computed

using the above technique. With the exception of lumber and wood products

manufacturing, government is the single largest employing sector in the

Pacific County economy. Total government employment declined from 1,120

(25 percent of total employment) in 1971 to 1,060 (23 percent of total

employment) in 1975. This represents an average annual decrease of -1.37

percent.

The following discussion describes the employment associated with federal,

state, and local government.

SUMMARY TABLE 17

GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT

Pacific County
1971-1975

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Total Government 1,120 1,100 1,090 1,080 1,060
Federal Government2 34 34 36 37 37
State Government2 213 218 204 197 202
Local Government 3 873 848 850 846 821

lUsing government employment from Total Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary
Workers Report, 1971-75.
2Using Federal and State government employment from Covered Employment and
Wages Report, 1971-75.
Balance after subtracting Federal and State government employment from
Total Government Employment.

Source: HRPI, computed from Washington State Department of Employment
Security data.

1. Federal Government

Federal government employment in Pacific County is minimal. From 34 employees

in 1971, federal government employment increased to 37 in 1975. These people

accounted for about three percent of total government employment over the

period (see Summary Table 17

2. State Government

Although declining slightly, Washington State government employment accounted

for about 19 percent of total government employment over the period from 1971

to 1975. From 213 people in 1971, Washington State government employment

declined to 202 workers in 1975 (see Summary Table17

3. Local Government

City and County government account for the major portion of total government

employment in Pacific County over the period from 1971 to 1975. Employment

in this sector of government fell by about 50 workers, from 873 (78 percent

of total government employment) in 1971 to 821 (77 percent of total govern-

ment in 1975).

As shown in Summary Table 4 , one standard deviation of government

employment in Pacific Count y is 5.1 percent of total government employment

in 1975. This compares to 1.6 percent in 1975 for the State of Washington.

The percent standard deviations for both the State and County understate

the seasonality of government employment, since teach ers, who are not

reflected by this statistic, are not employed during the summer months.

The County, however, still shows greater seasonality in government employ-

ment than the State. This is because the percentage of total government

employment held by yea r-round federal and State employees is lower in

Pacific County than it is statewide.

Average annual payroll per worker for the three levels of government is

shown in Summary Table 18. According to these statistics government

employees are among the highest wage earners in the County. In 1975

average annual payroll per worker was $12,190 for all levels of govern-

ment, $12,200 for federal government, $11,495 for State government and
$12,361 for local government.1

Average annual payroll per worker for all levels of government is the

only stati stic which may be compared to a statewide average. As shown

in Summary Table 5, average annual payroll per worker for all government

employees in Pacific County was comparable to payroll per worker for

government workers statewide. The comparability of payscale between

government employees in Pacific County and the State is due to common

salary schedules on both the State and federal levels.

lAdjusted to 1975 constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index, All
Items, from the Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975..

SUMMARY TABLE 18

GOVERNMENT PAYROLL

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAYROLL PER WORKER

Pacific County
1971-1975
(in 1975 constant dollars)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Total Government 12,667 12,425 12,341 12,753 12,190

Federal Government 12,205 12,941 12,947 12,018 12,200

State Government 10,885 10,997 11,626 11,167 11 495

Local Government 13,120 12,772 12,510 13,155 12,361

Source: Washington State Department of Employment Security.

Total payroll in government was $12,921,529 in 1975. This represents

30 percent of total payrolls for all industries (see Summary Table 19

Comprehensive Data Book Table 111-2).

lAdjusted to 1975 constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index, All
Items, from the Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1975.

SUMMARY TABLE 19

TOTAL GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS

Pacific County
1971-1975
(in 1975 constant dollars)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Total Government 14,187,211 13,667,924 13,451,303 13,773,696 12,921,529

Federal Government 414,984 440,005 446,080 444,678 451,404

State Government 2,318,467 2,397,446 2,371,709 2,199,888 2,322,033

Local Government 11,453,760 10,830,473 10,633,514 11,129,130 10,148,092

Using average annual covered payroll per worker multiplied by estimated
total government employment.
2Using average annual covered payroll per worker multiplied by covered
government employment.

Source: Washington State Department of Employment Security.

I Ot he.Industry

Other industry in Pacific County includes finance, insurance, and real

estate (FIRE), forestry, contract construction and industry not elsewhere

classified.

FIRE includes such establishments as banks and other financial institutions,

insurance companies, and real estate offices. In 1975 FIRE employed 116

people and accounted for about three percent of total em ployment. Average

payroll per Worker in 1975 was $7,484 compared with about $9,483 for FIRE

employees statewide. This discrepancy is due largely to the fact that

headquarters for most of the firms in this industry are located outside

Pacific County.

Forestry includes such activities as reforestation services, the operation

of timber tracts, tree farms and forest nurseries, as well as the gathering

of gums, bark, needles and pine cones. Logging is not included in this

industry classification, but rather as a part of lumber and wood products.

Forestry employment is aggregated with that of agriculture and fisheries.

The accuracy of these data is highly questionable. Since the industry

is of minimal importance to the County economy, no attempt was made to

estimate employment or payrolls associated with forestry.

Contract construction employment declined from a high of 133 employees in

1973 to 108 in 1975. This industry is one of the most seasonal in

the economy. Although the percent standard deviation of employment

in contract construction was higher in the County than for the State,

this industry is highly seasonal everywhere. Average payroll per worker

in 1975 was $9,658 in Pacific County compared with $13,661 statewide.

This discrepancy is due to a relatively high percentage of non-union

construction labor in the County compared with the State.

Industry, not elsewhere classified, includes such activities as mining

and private household services. In 1970 this category included some

government employment and employed 223 people. In 1971 when the option of

coverage under the Employment Security Act was extended to state and local

governments, employment in industry, not elsewhere classified, dropped

to 13 people. After 1971 employment continued to decline and in 1975

there were only six people in this category.

In 1975, other industry employed a maximum of 404 people (assuming the

174 people in agriculture, forestry and fisheries were all employed in

forestry) or about nine percent of total Pacific County employment.

V. UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment in Pacific County has been a persistent economic condition for

many years. The following section describes this situation based on data

from published sources. In addition, and one of the most important compo-

nents of this study, this section reports the results of the HRPI Telephone

Survey which was conducted to determine the characteristics of the excess

labor resources of Pacific County.

A. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

In analyzing unemployment rates in an area, a distinction must be made

between long and short term fluctuations. In the long term, a persistent

shortage of jobs will cause out-migration from any given area. This popula-

tion shift will reduce the size of the labor force and cause unemployment to
decline. Conversely', a persistent shortage of workers will cause an upward

pressure on wage rates and attract in-migrants seeking job opportunities

and/or high wages.

Consequently, the unemployment rate can be a misleading indicator of

economic well-being. Areas with inflated economies could have high unem-

ployment due to a rapid in-migration of workers with expectations of good

job opportunities. A depressed area, on the other hand, might have low

unemployment due to an out-migration of persons seeking employment elsewhere.

The unemployment rate for Pacific County was lower than..the Washington State

average from 1970 to 1972. In 1973, the State and County rates were

comparable at 7.9 and 8.0 percent, respectively. From 1974 through 1976 the

State rate was less than that of the County. The figures shown in Summary

Table 20 for 1975 are preliminary. They indicate Pacific County's

unemployment rate to be 11.1 percent compared with the State's 8.6 percent.

Both of these figures are high relative to the respective rates in preceeding

years and will probably be considerably lower when revised for final

publication.

The divergence of unemployment rates between the State and the County can

be explained in large part by fluctuations in aerospace employment in the

Seattle-Everett SMSA. The aerospace industry terminated close to 60,000

people from 1969 to 1971. This action was reflected in the unemployment

rate statewide which rose to 10.1 percent in 1971. During this recessionary

period, the unemployment rate for Pacific County was lower than the State

rate. As the aerospace industry began to recover after 1972, unemployment

declined for Washington State to ab out seven or eight percent. Although

Pacific County's rate remained relatively constant (with the exception of

1975 which is a preliminary figure and is felt to give an inaccurate reflec-

tion of actual conditions), however, its position worsened relative to the

State.

The HRPI Survey, which will be discussed in greater detail in Section V-B,

sampled the information necessary to compute unemployment rates for the

County as well as for the three sub-areas which were sampled. (These

sub-areas are the Raymond, Ilwaco, and Naselle Telephone Exchanges).

Summary Table 21 presents the unemployment rates for Pacific County and

the sub-areas of the County. As shown, in Septembe.r, 1976, when the

Survey was conducted, the unemployment rate was 9.0 percent in Pacific

County, 8.0 percent in the Raymond area, 11.3 percent in the Ilwaco area,

and 7.3 percent in the Naselle area.

98.

SUMMARY TABLE.20

UNEMPLOYMENT

State of Washington and Pacific County
(in percent)

Unemployment Rate
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 19751 19762

State of Washington 9.1 10.1 9.5 7.9 7.2 8.6 7.8

Pacific County 8.8 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 11.1 8.2

1Preliminary estimate made in lst quarter, 1975.
2Month of September, 1976.

Source*: Washington State, Department of Employment Security, Research and
Statistics Section.

SUMMARY TABLE 21

UNEMPLOYMENT

Pacific County and Raymond, Ilwaco, and Naselle Telephone Exchang@g
September, 1976
(in percent)

UnemplQy!p@nt Rate

Pacific County 9.0

Raymond Telephone Exchange 8.0

Ilwaco Telephone Exchange 11.3

Naselle Telephone Exchange 7.3

Source: Excess Labor Resources Pacific County, Telephone Survey, Human
Resources Planning Institute, September, 1976.

100

The greater detail, which is available as a result of the Survey, helps to

identify with more certainty the cause of the County's unemployment. The

area of highest unemployment is the Ilwaco area. In that area, a major

portion of employment is seasonal. Industries such as fishing, food

processing, and tourism (which impacts services and trade) are th e main-

stays of the economy. The unemployment rate in Raymond is lower at 8.0

percent. The seasonality of food processing employment in the Raymond area

is,mitigated by the relatively stable nature of the wood products industry,

as well as the year-round employment associated with the County government

functions. Services and trade employment, as a result, is more stable.

Unemployment in the Naselle area is the lowest of all areas in the County

at 7.3 percent. The Naselle area is relatively unpopulated, so that the low

rate of unemployment does little to affect the overall County rate.

High unemployment in Pacific County, then, is primarily a result of the

extreme seasonality of some of the County's most important industries. This

seasonality requires a pool of excess labor to meet employment peaks when

the seasonal employment require ments of various industries overlap. The

following section discusses the characteristics of this un- or under-employed

population in Pacific County.

101

B. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE UNEMPLOYED

This section will report the results of the HRPI Te lephone Survey pertain-

ing to the characteristics of the un- or under-employed population of Paci-

fic County. This survey (conducted in September, 1976) was employed as

one of the few means available of determining the characteristics of the

"excess labor resources" of Pacific County. Excess labor resources in-

cludes not only the resources of the unemployed population, but the re-

sources of those people who are employed only part-time or temporarily

and who wish to fin d full-time and/or permanent employment. The informa-

tion provided by the Survey and described below is available only through

the conduct of a similar survey of Pacific County. One of the most use-

ful results of the Survey is that all the information gathered is. available

for sub-areas of the County. Three telephone exchanges, Raymond, Ilwaco,

and Naselle, were surveyed and the results from each area were maintained

separately from the others.

Such information as past or current (for the part-time or temporarily

employed) employment experience by occupation, education, skills and

special licenses was collected for males and females by age for the

three sub-County areas. The following paragraphs report the results.

1. Employment Experience (by age and sex)

Fourteen occupations were used in categorizing the employment experience

of the excess labor resources of Pacific County:

102

9 Professional-Technical

s Managerial-Administrative

* Sales Worker

9 Fisheries Harvestor

e Craftsmen, Kindred Workers

* Machine Operators

* Transport Equipment Operators

* Laborer-Non-Farm

* Farm Worker

9 Service Worker

* Private Household Worker

* Clerical

* Food Processor

9 Other

The past job experience of excess labor resources in Pacific County was

distributed quite differently between males and females. The primary

category of unemployed men was non-farm laborers. From a total-of 790
unemployed men, 31 percent (242 men) had past jobs as laborers.

Fishermen made up about 15 percent (116 men) of the unemployed men.

Men employed as service workers, craftsmen, and food processors, therefore

accounted for about 30 percent or between eight and 12 percent, each.

103

The largest age group of unemployed men was 16 to 24 years. Three hundred

and sixteen men or 40 percent of all men were between 16 and 24 years old.

The primary categories of unemployed women in Pacific County were service

workers and clerical workers. Three hundred and thirty-four women
(26 percent) had past experience as service workers, while 296 (23 percent)

had worked as secretaries or clerks.

Other major occupational categories for women were sales workers (13 percent)

and food processors (15 percent).

Like men, many young women between the ages of 16 and 24 years were unemployed@

and looking for work. However, the largest group of unemployed women was

between the ages of 45 and 54 years. This latter group accounted for 24

percent (309 women) of the unemployed women.

Unemployed men in the Raymond Telephone Exchange.had past experience as

non-farm, laborErs (43 percent), food processors (16 percent), and fisheries

harvestors (eight percent). As with men County-wide, the largest age group

of unemployed men in Raymond, was between the years of 16 and 24.

Women in'the Raymond Exchange were distributed among service workers

(29 percent), clerical workers (26 percent), food processors (15 percent),

and professional-technical workers (12 percent). The largest group of

unemployed women was between 45 and 54 years of age.

104

Unemployed men in the Ilwaco Exchange were non-farm laborers (29 percent),

service workers (17 percent) and fisheries harvestors (17 percent) and

craftsmen and kindred workers (10 percent). The relatively large number

of unemployed male service workers in the Ilwaco area, when compared with

the Raymond area, was a direct effect of the tourist industry on the Long

Beach Peninsula. Again, the largest.group of unemployed men in the Ilwaco

area was between 16 and 24 years of age.

Women in the Ilwaco area -were unemployed primarily from clerical work

(24 percent), service work (21 percent), sales (18 percent) and food pro-

cessing (11 percent). The largest age groups of unemployed women were the

16-24, and 55-64 year age groups.

The Naselle Exchange area is a relatively unpopulated area, and the unemployed

people are so few as to not be distributed among the occupational categories.

Unemployed men werE primarily fishermen (27 percent), craftsmen (27 percent),

and machine operators (18 percent). Primary age groups of unemployed men

were 16-24, 45-54, and 55-64 year age groups.

There were 150 unemployed women in the Naselle area. These women were

service workers (41 percent), food processors (31 percent), clerical workers

(14 percent), or sales workers (14 percent). Although the age distribution

of unemployed women is relatively even in the Naselle area, the largest

group was 16-24 years of age.

The actual data for occupational distributions for each of these areas are

presented in Comprehensive Data Book (CDB) Tables V-1, V-1-a, V-1-b and, V-1-c.

105

CDB Tables V-2, V-2-a, V-2-b and V-2-c present data for Pacific County and

the Raymond, Ilwaco and Naselle Telephone exchanges, respectively, on

"other" occupational skills of the un- or under-employed population. The

question which was asked on the survey was, "Other than licenses and cer-

tificates, do you have any skills which might help you get particular

kinds of work?" The responses included many varied and, sometimes,

obscure skills which were written down directly by the interviewers. The

responses were later hand-tabulated into the same 14 occupational cate.-

gories which were used for describing employment experience. For men, the

major "other" occupation categories are professional-technical and service

workers. The same is true of women with the addition of a propensity

of clerical skills. The percentage of people with professional-technical

skills is an indication of the degree of people in the County who have

college degrees which are not being used. There are many people with

teaching certificates, for instance, who are either unemployed or who

are working in jobs which do not require a college education.

The following section reports the education levels of the County's excess

labor resources.

2. Education

Forty-seven percent of the un- or under-employed men in Pacific County do

not have high school diplomas. Forty-one percent have high school diplomas

or have earned high school equivalency. The remaining 12 percent of the

unemployed have college degrees.

106

The unemployed women in Pacific County have a relatively higher level of

education than the men. Twenty-six percent do not have high school

diplomas; 64 percent have a high school diploma'or high school equivalency;

and, 11 percent have college degrees.

Part of the reason there is high degree of people who have not achieved

a high school diploma is due to the population which was surveyed. The

telephone survey included anyone over the age of 16 years. Many of the

people on the lower end of this range have not yet finished high school.

The education levels of people in the Raymond, Ilwaco, and Naselle

telephone exchanges followed the same trends as witnessed County-wi,.de.

See CDB Table V-3for detailed information on the education levels of

people in the defined sub-areas of Pacific County.

107

VI. REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES

The following discussion describes taxation (revenues) and expenditures

as a fraction of personal income. There are alternative ways to discuss

this information; however, these alternatives either distort the ability

of taxpayers to adequately finance programs or do not adjust for varied

population levels. A comparison of government financing at the state and

county level using a personal income adjustment avoids these distortions.

Information presented in this section is based on data from the Census of

Governments. Comprehensive Data Book Tables VI-1-a and VI-1-b give the

detailed revenue and expenditure data from which statistics shown in Sum-

mary Table 22 were derived.

in 1972, the latest year data is available, expenditures per S1,000 of

personal income exceeded revenues by $11 in Pacific County. Statewide,

expenditures per $1,000 of personal income exceeded revenues by only $3.1.

These excesses in spending are financed by a combination of federal trans-

fer payments and net increases in state and local government debt.

A. REVENUES

1. State Government Taxation.

Washington is the only state in the Northwest without an income tax.

Instead, a sales tax ranging to 0.8 percent is collected by the Department

of Revenue for use by local governments. Sales tax collections barely

1
Census of Governments, Vol. 4, No. 5, Compendium of Government Finances,
U.S. Department of Commerce, 1971-72.

108

SUMMARY TABLE 22

GENERAL REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES PER 1,000 DOLLARS OF PERSONAL INCOME

State of Washington and Pacific County
1972

State of 1 Pacifi@
Washington County

General Revenue 108.2 110.5
Intergovernmental 41.7 38.6
State 37.2 34.7
Local 66.5 71.9
Taxes 41.9 45.2
Charges & Misc. 24.6 26.7

General Expenditures 111.3 121.5
Education 51.6 73.1
Highways .9.9 2.7
Public Welfare 0.04 0.6
Health & Hospital 5.0 9.8
Other 44.76 35.3

lBased on Total Personal Income of $15,579.1 million.
2
Based on Total Personal Income of $66,263.0 thousand..

Source: Human-Resources Planning Institute, compiled from data from
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census of Governments, Vol,. 4, No. 5,
Compendium of Government Finances.

109

kept up with personal income gains between 1960 and 1972 despite three

increases in the tax rate. This is a predictable feature of the sales tax

since most services are exempt from this form of taxation. Budgetary

pressures may be anticipated in Washington due to this heavy reliance

on the inelastic sales tax.

Revenues from state government sources were $34.7 per $1,000 of personal

income in Pacific County. These compare with $37.2 per $1,000 for Wash-

ington State.

2. Local Government Taxation

Local governments within Washington heavily rely on property taxes for

operating revenue. Equitable distribution of the burden of this tax is

difficult to achieve since property may be held for a long time by the

same party allowing no observation of actual market values. A statewide

reevaluation program was completed in 1973 which greatly improved the

uniformity of property tax assessments.

In Pacific County property taxes were $42.3 per $1,000 of personal income

accounting for 94 percent of local taxes. Statewide, property tax col-

lections were $34.3 per $1,000 of personal income and accounted for

about 82 percent of local taxes.

110

3. Other Revenue

Other revenue is attained in substantial portion from highway tolls,

educational tuition fees, permit fees, and parking meter collections.

Intergovernmental transfers is another source of revenue and with the

recent decentralization of federal programs, local governments are in-

creasingly eligible for direct funding from the federal government.

Grants-in-aid and revenue sharing are still a comparatively small per-

centage of total federal aid to state and local governments. These

federal transfers are important, however, because they are not earmarked

for specific programs and may be used to meet needs as identified by the

recipients. Finally, bond.sales provide both short and long term fim-

nancing. Bonds sold for short-term financing are an insignificant portion

of government indebtedness in Washington. Long-term obligations in the

form of revenue bonds, however, are primarily responsible for Washington's

rank of fourth nationally in governmental debt per capita.

Other revenue in Pacific County in 1972 was $33.5 per $1,000 of personal

income compared with $36.7 per $1,000 statewide.

B. EXPENDITURES
Education is the largest expenditure category of the state and local
governments in Washington. In Pacific County $73.1 per $1,000 of per-
sonal income were expended for education accounting for 60 percent of
total expe nditures. More than two-thirds of education expenditures are

made by local school systems for wages and salaries. Even as operating

costs and personnel levels increased from 1960 to 1972, stabilizing school

attendance permitted decreases in annual additions to capital facilities.

Most of the highway budget (about two-thirds) in Washington finances

additional construction. Highway expenditures and tax collections on

motor fuels and vehicles represent the largest single attempt by the

state to match tax collections with an expenditure category. In 1972,

$2.7 per $1,000 were spent on highways compared to the state's $9.9.

In 1960 Washington funded social programs at rates above the national

average. Between 1960 and 1972, however, increases in public assistance

and health care programs rose faster nationally than in Washington State

so that national expenditures per capita in this category slightly exceed

those for the state.

Pacific County expenditures on public welfare and health care signifi-

cantly exceeded spending per $1,000 of personal income statewide, pri-

marily due to the large percentage of elderly people. In 1972 County

expenditures were $10.4 per $1,000 compared to $5.04 per $1,000 statewide.

Other expenditure categories, including police and fire protection and

sewage treatment, accounted for $35.3 per $1,000 (or 29 percent) in

Pacific County. This compares to $44.8 per Sl,OOO (or about 40 percent)

for Washington State.

112

C GENERAL DEBT

General debt outstanding in 1972 in Pacific County was $33.0 per $1,000

of personal income. Of this amount, $29.5 was long t erm debt. Compa-

rable debt figures for Washington State were $111.8 per $1,000 for the

general debt, of which $107.8 was long term debt. These figures indicate

that in terms of outstanding debt, Pacific County is in a relatively

better position than other Washington State counties.

113

VII. DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT PLANS

The following section will describe and assess several plans which are

directed toward developing the economy of Pacific County. Certain of

these plans suggest programs which further develop existing industries

in terms of employment and income, while others address the problem of

employment seasonality and suggest programs which would provide year-

@ound employment.

None of the plans are at a stage where an actual location has been chosen

for construction. Until this locational decision is made, the surround-

ing environment, for which impacts will be assessed, cannot be identified.

The assessment of the development plans, therefore, is necessarily very

general in scope.

A. DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOURIST INDUSTRY

As leisure time, income and educational levels have risen nationally,

people's propensity to travel and recreate has increased. Together

with a greater environmental awareness nationwide, much of this activity

has become synonomous with visitation to remote areas. Pacific County's

abundant natural and unspoiled resources make the County a prime area

for accelerated growth in visitors seeking a wilderness experience.

This trend has economic and cultural significance to Pacific County.

Tourism generates dollars which flow into labor intensive service

industries. Yet the industry does not exhaust natural resources.

114

Therefore, if well managed, the tourist industry may generate employ-

ment and income benefits, and at the same time be compatible with the

desires of Pacific County residents to maintain the natural beauty and

quality environment of their County.

The following paragraphs describe and assess two specific plans which

could aid in developi.ng the tourist industry in Pacific County.

1. Direct Transportation Link Between the Long Beach Peninsula and,

Grays Harbor County Ocean Beaches

Currently, one of the primary deterrents to tourism in Pacific County

is the remoteness of the area. The following strategy discusses the

development of a ferry system between Ocean Shores in Grays Harbor

County and Nahcotta in Pacific County. The tourist industry in Grays

Harbor County is much more deve loped than that of Pacific County. The

industry supports several large hotel-motel complexes, especially at

Ocean Shores, as well as numerous smaller facilities all along the

ocean beach up to the Quinault Indian Reservation. Many times during

the summer months, these facilities are so full that visitors are forced

to drive back to Aberdeen-Hoquiam to find overnight accommodations. It

is a near certainty that these people would much prefer to be staying

on the ocean and that they have little concern for what county they are

in.

115

If a reliable ferry service was available between the ocean beaches of

Grays Harbor County and the Long Beach Peninsula in Pacific County,

the Pacific County tourist industry could expect to receive consider-

able "spillover" of Grays Harbor County ocean beach tourists. In fact,

it is possible that once the regional tourist population is aware of

such a service, it would prefer the less crowded beaches in Pacific

County and merely pass through Grays Harbor County to the Long Beach

Peninsula (this latter situation, of course, would only be short-term

until Pacific County ocean beaches reach capacity).

Economic Assessment

A ferry seevice connecting the ocean beaches of Pacific and Grays

Harbor Counties would aid the development of the tourist industry of

Pacific County. This development would have a beneficial effect on

the County economy by inducing a more rapid growth in tourism and,

therefore, in tourist expenditures.

A problem which often accompanies a large tourist influx is the in-

ability of the resident population to finance adequate water and sewage

facilities to meet peak demand during tourist season. Federal regula-

tions exist which assure water quality, so that the problem is one

of economics. There is potential that this problem could impede

growth of tourist industry development on the Long Beach Peninsula.

Further development of the summer tourist industry would also serve

116

to exacerbate the existing problem of seasonal employment in Pacific
County, which is especially pronounced on the Long Beach Peninsula.

Another possible cost of such a transportation link would be the loss
of Oregon and California visitors from Pacific County to areas north,
including Grays Harbor County ocean beaches and the Olympic Peninsula.
Overall, however, establishing a more direct transportation route from

the Long Beach Peninsula to beaches in Grays Harbor County is expected

to result in a net benefit to the Pacific County economy.

Environmental Assessment

The tourist industry, out of self-preservation, is one of the industries

most compatible with the concept of a quality environment. The trend

in the tourist industry nationwide is toward activities which afford a

greater opportunity to appreciate the natural physical environment.

Therefore, the development of this industry necessarily requires mini-

mizing potential damage to the physical environment. For this reason,

the impact to the physical environment of initiating a ferry service

between the Long Beach Peninsula and the ocean beaches of Grays Harbor

County is expected to be minimal.

Ferry terminals would need to be constructed, which construction might

cause short-term disruption of the marine environment. Such construction,

however, providing it complied with all the applicable regulations, would

117

be allowed under Sections 16.40 or 16.60 (conservancy shoreline or rural
shoreline, respectively) of the Shoreline Master Plan for Pacific County.

In the past there has been a direct relati onship between people and
pollution; as an area attracts more and more people (especially tour-
ists), it also becomes more littered and aesthetically unpleasing.
Although there is considerable probability that littering will occur

to some extent, two forces are at work which will serve to minimize

the negative effects: First, as stated, it is in the interest of the

tourist industry to maintain a clean, aesthetically pleasing environ-

ment; second, the population in general is developing a greater aware-

nes$ of, as well as a desire to maintain, a quality environment.

The potential of a plan to provide a transportation link between the

Long Beach Peninsula and Grays Harbor County is considered to be excellent.

Some minor political problems could arise between Pacific and Grays Harbor

County over the transfer of expenditures from the latter to the former.

However, this problem should not be insolvable.

It is suggested that a formal market feasibility study of a ferry system

between the two counties be conducted. This study would analyze the

economic costs and benefits of such an action to the Pacific County

economy and would constitute the first step of a complete assessment

of the project. Subsequent studies should be undertaken to provide a

careful an alysis of the economic impact on Grays Harbor County, as well

118

as the impacts to the physical environment of Pacific and Grays Harbor

Counties.

2. Develop a Small Boat Basin and Water Sports Area on Willapa River

near Raymond-South Bend

The northern part of Pacifi c County is abundant in natural resources,

which are well-suited to development for recreation. To date, little

has been done to develop the Willapa River for recreation. For this

reason, and due to the overwhelming attraction of the ocean beaches

50 miles south, northern Pacific County has virtually no tourist in-

dustry. With well-planned development of the area's water resources,

this situation need.not be the case.

A plan to build a small boat basin on the Willapa River is one which

has been conjectured for several years. To date, however, the only

formal study of the demand for moorage facilities for small pleasure
craft in Pacific County is a 1973 report by the Corps of Engineers.1

According to this report, there are 35 permanent moorage spaces for

pleasure craft at Tokeland Small Boat Basin, five spaces for pleasure

craft at Nahcotta Mooring Basin and six pleasure craft spaces at Bay

Center Mooring Basin. According to the Corps of Engineers report, un-

fulfilled demand for moorage spaces in Willapa Bay will increase from

1Plea-sure,,.Boating-Study,- Grays Ha-rbor and Willa.pa Bay Washington,
U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers, Seattle District, April, 1973.

119

1,132 in 1975 to 2,090 in 1995.2 Unfulfilled demand for moorage spaces
i.n the Raymond-South Bend area will increase from 232 in 1975 to 415 in
1995. To date, although the demand has been identified, no funds have

been authorized for the Corps to study the feasibility of a new small
boat basin in the Willapa Bay area.3

Economic,Assessment

A small boat basin and attending water sports area in the Raymond-South

Bend area would constitute one of the first steps in developing the

water resources of northern Pacific County for recreation. Based on

the demand forecasts prepared by the Corps of Engineers, such an action

would be beneficial to the area economy. Expenditures would come (at

least initially) primarily from area residents and, therefore, would be

somewhat more predictable than tourist expenditures. However, in the

long run, the overall concept of development of the water resources of

northern Pacific County for recreation will contribute to the develop-

ment and growth of a viable tourist industry.

Environmental Assessment

The construction of a small boat basin and the introduction of more

pleasure craft to Willapa River and its tributaries could have some

negative impacts on the surrounding physical environment. These include

2Figures include Raymond-South Bend, Tokeland-Cape Shoalwater, Bay Center,
3Nahcotta-Long Beach, and Naselle-South Bay.
Per conversation with Steve Foster, Chief, Navigation and Coastal
Planning, Seattle District, Corps of Engineers.

120

disruption of marine life during constructio n, encroachment on ecologi-

cally sensitive marine habitat, and possible carelessness of pleasure

boaters with motor oil and other pollutants.

The location of such a facility is controlled by the Shoreline Master

Plan for Pacific County to preclude possible construction in an envir-

onmentally sensitive area. Careful planning and research, as well as

existing environmental regulations, are expected to eliminate or sig-

nificantly mitigate any adverse impacts resulting from such an action.

The potential of a small boat basin to provide a net positive contribu-

tion to the Pacific County economy is excellent both in the short and

long term. The following studies are suggested to provide proper for-

ward planning: (1) An update of the Corps of Eng ineers; demand fore-

casts for moorage spaces; (2) a market feasibility study to analyze

the economic costs and benefits of the action; and, (3) a detailed en-

vironmental assessment of the action to assure the maintenance of the

ecological balance of Willapa River.

Numerous plans, in addition to 1 and 2 above, can be conceptualized,
which would aid the growth of the tourist or recreation industry:
Renovation of the inn at Tokeland to provide a first class hotel/rest-
aurant; more and better facilities for camping (in northern Pacific
County); hiking trails and water sports areas; etc. However, these
plans.do not address the problem of employment seasonality, which is

121

prevalent in so many industries of Pacific County. In an attempt to

respond to this problem, the following section discusses the types

of projects which would provide year-round employment.

B. DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES PROVID-IN-G-YEAR-ROUND EMPLOYMENT

No one industry has the potential of providing significant numbers of

year-round jobs. The type of economic development upon which Pacific

County must depend in the long run for year-round employment will be

small development project s in all industries. These projects indivi-

dually will not solve the County's seasonality problem, but together

might be the first step in providing the opportunity of year-round

employment to the un- or under-employed population of Pacific County.

The Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development

is currently working on such projects as a convention center on the

Long Beach Peninsula, a hardwood manufacturing plant in north Pacific

County, and to a lesser extent, the development of oyster seed and

razor clam seed hatcheries. The following will discuss each of these

projects briefly.

1. Convention Center

The convention center would be located on the Long Beach Peninsula.

Most conventions occur in the winter or winter-fringe months. During

the summer months, the convention center would be used to support the

122

tourist industry and, thereby, would provide employment virtually

year-round. This type of employment is especially desirable in the

southern part of the County, where employment is much more subject to

seasonality than the rest of the County. Most of this employment

would require few skills and be relatively low-paying work.

During construction of the convention center, there could be short-

term noise and air pollution. The location of the center will deter-

mine th e'extent to which long-term negative impacts to the surrounding

marine resources will occur. However, enforcement of the Shoreline

Master Plan for Pacific County should assure the protection of envir-

onmentally sensitive areas.

2. Hardwood Manufacturing Plant

Alder is presently being logged in Pacific County and transported to

Oregon plants for manufacture. The Washington State Department of

Commerce and Economic Development is attempting to attract private in-
vestors into north ern Pacific County to build a plant to manufacture

furniture components. Wood products manufacturing employment is non-

seasonal-and wages are relatively high (see Section IV-C-2, Lumber

and Wood Products). Any successful action which is taken to aid the

growth of this industry in Pacific County would benefit the County

economy.

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The actual location of a hardwood manufacturing plant will determine

the extent to which short-term (during construction) and long-term

(operation) disruption to the surrounding environment will occur.

Again, enforcement of the Shoreline Master Plan should preclude plant

siting in environmentally sensitive areas. Operational factors, such

as possible waste outfalls into water bodies and leachate from chip

piles, which are potentially degrading to marine resources, are also

subject to environmental regulations. The extent to which most of

these concerns pose environmental problems will depend on the proxi-

mity of the plant to a water body.

Logging hardwood in Pacific County should not increase due to plant

construction, since logs are already being supplied to mills in

Oregon. Logging, however, has historically caused bank erosion and

siltation problems along the rivers of Pacific County. To the extent
that any additional logging would occur as a result of 'the plant, log-

ging practices specified under the Forest Practices Act should be

strictly enforced.

3. Seed Hatcheries,(Aquaculture)

The development of seed hatcheries requires a capital investment which

is high, relative to the employment generated. If the economic feasi-

bility of such an action could be solved (possibly by converting existing

facilities), year-round employment would be provided in an industry

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which is necessarily compatible, not only with the maintenance, but

with the enhancement of the quality of marine environment.

The above plans would all provide year-round employment. Each would,

therefore, benefit the County economy in that respect. Each of the

plans would have varying degrees of potential impact to the physical

environment. A plan to promote aquaculture should be a relatively

impact-free endeavor, while a hardwood manufacturing mill should be

monitored closely to assure its compatibility with the surrounding

environment. As these plans progress and become better formulated,

economic feasibility studies and detailed environmental assessments

should be conducted.

C. CONCLUSIONS

Pacific County has a resource-based economy. Timber, fisheries and

the natural resources which support tourism are the primary sources

of a major portion of employment and income accruing to the County.

As such, in assessing various development strategies for Pacific

County, it should be kept in mind that.any plan which adversely affects

the physical environment will very probably have an adverse affect on

the overall County economy in the long run.

The plans discussed throughout this section are only examples of the

types of development which could aid in improving the Pacific County

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economy. Before actively initiating any of these plans, County planners

should develop criteria with which they may prioritize development

projects. Pacific County is in an enviable position of still having

an unscarred physical environment with which to develop compatible in-

dustries such as tourism and aquaculture. The planning and special

studies suggested will help the County avoid costly, unplanned develop-

ment by providing a basis for informed management and investment de-

cisions.

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VIII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Pacific County has a resource-based economy. Its major industries are

lumber and wood products manufacturing, fishing, seafood processing,

and tourism. With the exception of lumber and wood products manufactur-

ing, employment in these industries is highly seasonal and relatively

low-paying compared with the rest of Washington.

The lumber and wood products industry, located in northern Pacific

County, is not subject to seasonality, although plant shut-downs do

occur as a result of labor strikes and annual maintenance closures.

Labor unions in the lumber and wood products industry are strong in

Pacific County and the average payroll per worker is slightly higher

here than in the rest of Washington.

The fishing and seafood processing industries transcend a north-south

County distinction, although certain species of fish are more prevalent

in one part of the County than another. Important species of commercial

,fish are Chinook and Coho salmon, Albacore tuna, Pacific oysters, Dunge-

ness crab, and shrimp. The shrimp fishery, in particular, grew from

nothing to almost seven million pounds harvested over a three-year

period. Shrimp landings at Pacific County parts account for over 75.per-

cent of the total state harvest.

Food processing is almost totally dependent on the fishing industry.

With the exception of a cranberry screening plant, a dairy, and a

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custom slaughter house, seafood is the only type of food processed.

Seafood processing is the most labor intensive of the food processing

industries. Therefore, it pays the lowest wages.

Fishing and seafood processing are both highly seasonal industries

due to the cyclical nature of fisheries, as well as fisheries product-

ivity. Fishermen and seafood processing workers cross fisheries to

some extent; however, conflicting seasons and varied skill require-
ments prevent this from solving the seasonal unemployment so prevalent

in these industries.

The tourist and tourist-related industries exist primarily in southern

Pacific County. Attractions such as deep sea fishing, clamming, and

ocean beaches draw tourists from all over the Northwest. The industry,

due to its orientation to fisheries and other natural resources, as

well as to people's desire and ability to travel during the summer, is

highly seasonal. Tourist-related industries, such as services and

retail trade, are labor intensive and pay low wages.

Overall then, the Pacific County economy is based on industries, which

in major part, are seasonal and which pay low wages. This situation

is particularly true in the southern part of the County, where the

added influence of tourism exacerbates the problem. In the North,

tourism is negligible, and the year-round high wages of government

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and the lumber and wood products industries dilute the seasonality

of seafood processing and fishing.

Unemployment in Pacific County is a persistent pro blem, which is due in

great part to the seasonality of industry in the County. The signifi-

cant contribution of seasonality to high unemployment was supported by

the results of the telephone survey conducted by Human Resources Plan-

ning Institute. The survey showed unemployment rate for the County to

be nine percent. The northern part of the County, which is less sea-

sonal than the County as a whole, was eight percent and the southern

part of the County around the Long Beach Peninsula was 11.3 percent.

The HRPI survey determined the characteristics of the un- or under-

employed population of Pacific County. In general, "excess labor re-

source s" in the County are unskilled or semi-skilled. Unemployed men

are mostly in the 16 to 24 year age group and have past work experience

as.laborers and service workers. Unemployed women fall into to two age

categories, 16 to 24 years and 45 to 54 years. Women had past work

experience as service workers, clerks/secretaries, sales people, and

food processing.

The past and current job experience together with educational levels

indicated that many people were not working or could not find employ-

ment in fields for which they are educated. Twelve percent of the

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excess labor resources had college degrees; a larger percentage had

partially completed college.

Economic development suitable to the economy of Pacific County consists

of projects like small boat basins, campgrounds, hiking and scenic

trails, fish seed hatcheries, and convention centers. The interre-

lationship of the economy and the physical environment requires the

development of compatible industries,like aquaculture and tourism,

which will not jeopardize the sensitive ecological balance and which,

therefore, will not jeopardize the economic stability of the County.

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