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:@7 Coastal Zone Information -APR Center ZME wc,R%i';AvGM CENTER W, IL HC 108 A7 A74 1975 The preparation of this document was financed in part by funds provided by the Federal Government, including the Urban Mass Transportation Administration of the United 9tates Department of Transportation, through the Integrated Grz 'Int Administration Program, and, in part, by funds from the Department of Transportation of the State of Georgia. This document is a corrected copy as submitted by the Atlanta Regional Commission. The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed or implied in this document are those of the Atlanta Regional Commission. They are not necessarily those of the Urban Mass Transportation Administration nor the U. S. Department of Transportation. The contents of this report reflect the views of the persons preparing the document and those individuals are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Department of Transportation of the State of Georgia. This report does not constitute a standard, specification or regulation. 0 PIkOPERTY OF THE UW- ED STATES GOWWWW 1976 ww"M ocow " &WW"MC aff Property of CSC Library C2 Prepared by the Atlanta Regional Commission Suite gio 100 Peachtree St., NW Atlanta, Georgia 30303 (404) 522-7577 March 1975 [E*t S - DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE N 00- COASTAL SERVICES CENTER 22,14 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE CIO r-A CHARLESTON , SC 29405-2413 C@ Table of liontents List of Tables INTRODUCTION ................................ 1 Table 1 .......................................... 8 The Atlanta Regional Commission ......... 1 Changes in Occupation of Residents, Atlanta Regional Development Plan ................ 1 Region, 1960-1970 Economic Base Study ...................... 1 Table 2 .......................................... 10 THE ATLANTA REGION: Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employ- FROM THE SIXTIES .......................... 4 ment, United States -Southeast -Atlanta EMPLOYMENT .................................. 7 Region, 1970-2000 Employment Growth in the Sixties ......... 7 Table 3 .......................................... 11 Employment Projections ................... 9 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employ- INCOME ......................................... 15 ment Projections, Atlanta Region, 1970-2000 Income Trends ............................. 15 Table 4 .......................................... 15 Income Projections ......................... 16 Percent Distribution of Families by Income Range, United States -Southeast -Atlanta POPULATION ................................... 17 Region, 1970 Population Growth Trends ................. 17 Table 5 .......................................... 16 Population Projections ..................... 20 Distribution of Families by Income Range, Age Composition ........................... 22 Atlanta Region, 1970-2000 In-migration ................................ 25 Table 6 .......................................... 17 Households ................................. 25 Population Growth, Atlanta Region, 1900-1970 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE REPORT ................. 28 Table 7 .......................................... 18 METHODOLOGY ................................ 29 Growth Trends in the U.S. Metropolitan Areas of Employment ................................ 29 One Million or More Population, 1960-1970 Population .................................. 30 Table 8 .......................................... 18 Income ...................................... 31 Growth Trends in the Largest Metropolitan Areas of the Southeast, 1960-1970 Table 9 .......................................... 19 Population Growth, Atlanta Region and State of Georgia, 1960-1970 List of Figures Table 10 ......................................... 20 Figure 1 ......................................... 3 Population Projections, Atlanta Region, 1970- Planning Process 2000 Figure 2 ......................................... 5 Table 11 ......................................... 21 Major Shopping Centers, Office Parks and In- Anticipated Average Annual Increase in Num- dustrial Parks in the Atlanta Region ber of Persons and Percent Increase Per Decade, Atlanta Region, 1970-2000 Figure 3 ......................................... 7 Table 12 ......................................... 21 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employ- Population Projections, United States-South- ment Growth by Industry Group, Atlanta Region, east- Georgia -Atlanta Region, 1970-2000 1960-1970 Table 13 ......................................... 22 Figure 4 ......................................... 9 Population by Age Groups, Atlanta Region, 1970 Percent Distribution of Civilian Non-Farm Wage and 2000 and Salary Employment, United States-South- Table 14 ......................................... 22 east -Atlanta Region, 1970 and 2000 Population by Age Groups, United States, 1970 Figure 5 ......................................... 11 and 2000 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employ- Table 15 ......................................... 24 ment Projections, Atlanta Region, 1970-2000 Population by Five-Year Age Groups, Atlanta Figure 6 ......................................... 12 Region, 1970 and 2000 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employ- Table 16 ......................................... 25 ment by Industry Group, Atlanta Region, 1970- Number of Households and Persons Per House- 2000 hold, Atlanta Region, 1960-2000 Figure 7 ......................................... 12 Table 17 ......................................... 27 Manufacturing Employment Profile, Atlanta Population and Households, Atlanta Region, Region, 1970-2000 1960-2000 Figure 8 ......................................... 19 Population of the Atlanta Region as a Percent of the State of Georgia, 1960-1970 Figure 9 ......................................... 20 Population Trends of the Atlanta Region, 1970- 2000 Figure 10 ........................................ 23 Population by Age Groups, Atlanta Region and United States, 1970 and 2000 Figure 11 ........................................ 23 Population by Five-Year Age Groups, Atlanta Region, 1970 and 2000 Figure 12 ........................................ 26 Household Growth by Type, Atlanta Region, 1960-2000 LLL Planning and forecasting are closely related parts The process used to develop the Regional of a single process. Plans for the Atlanta Region Development Plan is an innovative one: technical should be tailored to accommodate future growth and strategic improvements have been made in trends, populations, and lifestyles. the standard planning process to produce a plan In some cases, if the projected trends are that can be implemented. Alternative courses of undesirable, plans should be aimed toward action are being studied by technicians, public changing the trends themselves. officials and private citizens alike in reference to such vital areas as costs, benefits and impacts on Moreover, forecasts are never wholly accurate: the way people in the Atlanta Region live. their accuracy varies with the subject matter and A computerized "activity allocation model," with the length of the time period. Long-range EMPIRIC, is being used to determine some of the forecasts are less accurate than short-range implications of the various alternative transporta- forecasts. tion and land use policy statements. Population Therefore, the forecasts in this report should not and employment are distributed by this computer be viewed as predictions but as approximate and model to all areas of the region based on the adjustable guidelines for planning purposes, to alternative policies. be revised periodically to reflect changing A "control total'' of population and employment conditions or changing goals. is therefore needed throughout the forecast The Atlanta Regional Commission. period (1970-2000) to give EMPIRIC a fixed Created by the local governments of the Atlanta regional number of people and jobs to distribute. Region, pursuant to legislation passed by the Economic Base Study. 1971 Georgia General Assembly, the Atlanta This Economic Base Study presents the regional Regional Commission is the official area planning projections, or controls totals, from which the and development commission for the counties of RDP alternative distributions derive. Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Gwinnett and Rockdale and the municipalities In a detailed study of the region's economy, the contained in these counties. Atlanta Regional Commission considered a range Regional planning involves intergovernmental of projections of population and employment- cooperation to solve problems which are common low, medium and high. In October 1973, the to governments. This planning creates the need Atlanta Regional Commission adopted the middle @for long-range forecasting of vital economic and range as the most likely projection. ,social characteristics of the region so that the @end products of planning efforts reflect the most reasonable, cost- and energy-conscious, and ,implementable policy statements possible. Regional Development Plan. 'The Atlanta Regional Commission is currently preparing a Regional Development Plan (RDP) to provide a framework for regional growth. A coordinated set of goals, objectives, standards and policies will be included in the RDP which will be useful in solving important regional problems. It must be noted that all three ranges provide for a considerable amount of growth. Non-growth, as a policy alternative for the Atlanta Region, is not considered within the realm of possibility given the following assumptions made for the Economic Base Study: The free enterprise system as it now exists The Atlanta Region's specialties, when will remain as national policy throughout the compared with the national profile, will forecast period. continue to be wholesale trade, followed by transportation/communications/utilities Employment in the United States will rise by (TCU) and finance/ i nsu rance/ real estate approximately 46 million jobs (65 percent), (FIRE). Least of all will it be concerned with and jobs in the southeastern United States mining, and will continue to be substantially will rise by approximately ten million (107 below the national average as a percent) between 1970 and 2000. manufacturing center. There will be no public policy constraining The cornerstone of future growth of the the migration of workers from one part of 7 Atlanta Region rests on employment growth: the country to another to seek or accept long-term population growth is contingent on job opportunities. employment opportunities. Population is The environmental amenities of the Atlanta expected to increase from 1,437,000 in 1970 Region will not deteriorate significantly when to approximately 3,479,000 in 2000 (142 compared to other urban areas of the country; percent). Employment will grow slightly therefore, people will not be deterred from faster than population due primarily to moving to this region to take advantage of increases in labor force participation rates. available employment opportunities. The projections contained in this Economic The Atlanta Region's share of southeastern 0 Base Study represent the growth potential of employment will continue to increase more the seven-county Atlanta Region: in the or less in line with 1950-to-1970 trends. regional development planning process, all Employment will, therefore, rise from of the projected growth which may occur in approximately 621,000 in 1970 to 1,580,000 peripheral counties (within new or existing in 2000 (154 percent). towns) will be incremental to that projected for the Atlanta Region. In effect, the Atlanta Regional Commission has Forecasting is always risky. Recognizing this, the decided to accept the "laissez-faire" or "normal" Atlanta Regional Commission's projection of 3.5 forecast of growth for the Atlanta Region. The million persons in the region by the year 2000 Atlanta Regional Commission is not recommend- actually means that the year-2000 population ing that future growth be artificially elevated could be as high as 4 million or as low as 3 and, conversely, does not recommend that future million. Or, viewed another way, a population of growth be artificially restrained. This is based on 3.5 million could occur as early as 1990 or as the belief that the prevailing and likely growth late as 2010. It is therefore necessary that work rate for the region is a moderate and healthy one continue to monitor and update the forecasts and which will not only provide expanded opportunities reforecast when necessary. The Atlanta Regional for the region's present and future citizens but Commission's long-range work program includes which, through proper planning and growth this continuous monitoring of employment, management, can be accommodated in population and other socio-economic variables environmental terms. in the Atlanta Region. Figure 1 illustrates the overall planning process of the Atlanta Regional Commission and the interrelationships of these activities. Figure 1 Planning Process @1; 90.1.;Sk d Win@606s -and Trends Jecpalb. Anqa#d@ F@orecasts, P(.n Plgb ig C Oq Qt ps, -a tuine Alle ns;ahd@@ SrIgg n Tirpa lo ir, tv" Source: Atlanta Regional Commission, 3 The Atlanta Region: from the Bixties MW The economy of the Atlanta Region has always been a diversified one, dominated by no single economic component such as manufacturing or government. It is this mix which has afforded the Atlanta Region its characteristic variety of lifestyle opportunities. The Atlanta Region during the decade of the sixties experienced a tremendous surge in national recognition and a continued, healthy population and economic growth. Three contributing factors were the desegregation of its public facilities, the expansion of its transportation network and an excellent geographic location. The Atlanta Region became a serious competitor with other major American cities for the lucrative convention business during the sixties. Numerous it L4 hotel and motel rooms and convention facilities were added to accommodate the increasing throngs of visitors to the Atlanta Region. t C, Convention activity created a new industry for Atlanta and its environs. Major league sports, for the first time in the Southeast, located in Atlanta. The Atlanta Civic Center and the Atlanta Memorial Arts Center were erected to-meet the cultural needs of the Atlanta Region. Major new recreational attractions drew additional millions to the Atlanta community. T Parallel with the booming convention business, Atlanta continued to grow as a national as well as regional retail trade center. More than 400 of Fortune magazine's top 500 firms have home or branch offices in the Atlanta Region. With the construction of the Atlanta Merchandise Mart on historic Peachtree Street, Atlanta successfully maintained its dominance of wholesaling in the Southeast. Today, the Mart is second in display area only to Chicago's giant facility. Figure 2 Major Shopping Centers, Office Parks and Industrial Parks in the Atlanta Region 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . & -------------- L 7 0 Shopping Centers Office Parks 0 Industrial Parks Regional Shopping Centers -complete 1974. Source: Atlanta Regional Commission. Industrial Parks-300,000+ gross square feet complete 1974. Offlc* Parks-200,000+ gross square feet complete 1974. 5 Another major economic development of the sixties and seventies in the Atlanta Region was the tremendous growth of regional shopping centers and office and industrial parks. The Atlanta Region's radial expressway system provided interested tenants with the access so vital to their operations. With the City of Atlanta as the hub, Interstates 20, 75, and 85 put the merchants of the region in touch with the rest of the nation, while the perimeter highway, Interstate 285, provided improved intra-region travel. As with many American urban areas, the construction of freeways spurred economic development in the suburbs. Over 200,000 new jobs opened up in the Atlanta Region during the 1960's, but the Central Business District got relatively few of them. Much of the construction which took place in the Central Business District served to replace existing structures and to curb the flow of jobs from downtown. In general, professional service employment moved northward from the core of the City of Atlanta-a settlement pattern which appears to be continuing. The trend began along the Peachtree Road corridor northbound and later fanned out into the entire northern portion of the Atlanta Region. Planned suburban office and industrial parks attract potential tenants with (a) environmental qualities and (b) greater locational convenience for many employees. The map, Figure 2, locates the major shopping centers, office and industrial parks of the Atlanta Region. Am 6 The economy of the Atlanta Region will be shaped in part by past and future growth trends in employment, income, population and such prospective developments as the performance of the national economy, the impact of technology and the law of supply and demand. Employment is the key to the future growth and development of the Atlanta Region. It is necessary, therefore, to examine some of the variables which are likely to affect the future economy of the region. Employment Figure 3 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment Growth in the Sixties. Employment Growth by Industry Group During the decade of the sixties, civilian non-farm Atlanta Region wage and salary employment' increased in 1960-1970 the Atlanta Region by 66.5 percent while the population grew at a more moderate rate of 37.6 percent. This does not necessarily indicate that there were a sufficient number of jobs created during the decade. A detailed analysis of opportunities in relation to job needs would have to take a great many additional factors into account, such as rising labor force participation 140,000 ratios, increases in the number of female 120,000 workers and skills available in the labor force as compared with skifis required. 100,000 Employment over the decade rose to 621,400 by 80,000 1970 for a gain of 248,300 jobs. Figure 3 presents employment growth for the region by 60,000 major industry group between 1960 and 1970. 40,000 Although none of the industry groups declined, there was considerable variation in growth for 20,000 the period. The greatest amount of growth occurred in manufacturing and retail trade, 0. while government, followed closely by services and retail trade, experienced the highest 1970 rate of growth. 1960 'All employment data in this report relate to the non-farm sector of the economy *Finance, Insurance and Real Estate and exclude farmers and farm workers, proprietors, the self-employed, unpaid -Transportation, Communications and Utilities farnily workers, domestic household workers, and the armed forces. Source: Atlanta Regional Commission. Table 1 Changes in Occupation of Residents- Atlanta Region 1960-1970 EMPLOYED CHANGE MAJOR OCCUPATION GROUP 1960* 1970* NUMBER PERCENT Professional, technical and kindred workers 47,392 94,040 +46,648 +98.4 Managers and administrators, except farm 40,662 61,144 +20,482 +50.4 Sales workers 37,128 54,195 +17,067 +46.0 Clerical and kindred workers 78,976 138,186 +59,210 +75.0 Craftsmen, foremen and kindred workers 51,809 79,025 +27,216 +52.5 Operatives including transport equipment operatives 68,737 83,047 +14,310 +20.8 Laborers, except farm 18,277 25,013 + 6,736 +36.9 Farmers and farm managers 1,716 851 - 865 -50.4 Farm laborers and farm foremen 1,553 1,271 - 282 -18.2 Service workers, except private household 36,913 55,738 +18,825 +51.0 Private household workers 21,482 13,501 - 7,9131 -37.2 *There were two important changes in the 1960-1970 Censuses that have an important effect on comparability. The first is the allocation of the not reported cases, which would increase the size of the major group totals in 1970 relative to 1960. The second is that the official definition for members of the labor force now excludes persons under the age of 16 rather than under the age of 14. For purposes of comparison the 21,946 persons in the "Occupation Not Reported" category in 1960 were allocated to the other occupation groups according to the respective percent of the total minus the not reported. The age group differences could not be resolved but the actual numbers are insignificant. Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census. The data referred to in Figure 3 consider persons who work in the Atlanta Region. The 1970 Census revealed trends in the occupations of persons who live in the Atlanta Region. Table 1 shows the distribution of the employed residents by major occupation group. Most impressive were the quite sizeable gains in clerical, professional and technical workers. Of equal significance was the absolute decline in the number of private household workers and the slight increase in the number of laborers during the decade. 8 Employment Projections. There is good reason to believe that during the forecast period of this Economic Base Study the Figure 4 economy of the Atlanta Region will continue to thrive. As shown in Figure 4, the Southeast and Percent Distribution*of Civilian Non-Farm the nation as a whole are also expected to Wage and Salary Employment enjoy a period of growth (Table 2). While the United States -Southeast** -Atlanta Region anticipated numerical gains in employment are 1970 and 2000 impressive for the years ahead, refinement of these employment projections into the major industrial groups provides a better understanding of the changing economic mix of this region. A ,Im A& q Oil" _-1 NO* CIO Ilea 1970 2000 'Percents for each area do not add to 100 because mining, which constitutes a small percentage of total employment, is not shown on the figure. Mining employmen,t for eaGch area iSgweniin Table 2. 'd "Alabama, F on a, eorgia, Mississ ppi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennes ee. Sou rce: Atlanta Regional Commission. Table 2 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment- United States- Southeast* -Atlanta Region 1970-2000 UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST ATLANTA REGION (000's) (000's) (000's) 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 MANUFACTURING 19,369.4 22,210.4 25,261.6 28,514@6 2,815.6 3,682.4 4,575.0 5,571.3 123.8 152.9 214.7 291.9 GOVERNMENT 12,535.0 15,455.0 18,565.0 21,855,0 1,675.9 2,163.7 2,710.5 3,322.0 95.8 129.0 174.9 230.6 SERVICES 11,630.0 15,180.0 18,970.0 22,950@O 1,278.3 1,776.1 2,371.2 3,075.3 94.3 143.8 205.3 284.0 RETAIL TRADE 11,098.0 13,348.0 15,728.0 18,208.0 1,431.3 1,855.4 2,343.5 2,895.1 103.4 148@O 198.5 257.3 WHOLESALE TRADE 3,824.0 4,608.0 5,413.0 6,238,0 490.0 654.3 849.8 1,072.9 66.3 93.9 128.6 170.1 T.C.U.** 4,504.0 4,944.0 5,419.0 5,929,0 543.2 697.1 867.0 1,061.3 59.4 82.1 109.2 142.6 F.I.R.E.- 3,690.0 4,640.0 5,660.0 6,750,0 429.7 580.0 758.4 965.2 45.0 64.3 90.1 122.8 CONSTRUCTION 3,345.0 3,965.0 4,610.0 5,280.0 542.4 733.5 935.8 1,161.6 32.6 45.1 60.9 79.5 MINING 622.0 592.0 612.0 652.0 43.1 41.4 49.0 58.7 .6 .8 .9 1.0 TOTAL 70,617.4 84,942.4 100,238.6 116,376.6 9,249.5 12,163.9 15,460.2 19,183.4 621.4 859.9 1,183.1 1,579.8 *Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. -Transportation, Communications and Utilities. -Finance, Insurance and Real Estate. Source: Atlanta Regional Commission. Changes in this mix can be obtained by observing should experience the least amount of change in employment distributions for an industry group its employment profile over the period, the over time. Figure 4 shows the percent distributions highest rate of growth will most likely occur in of employment for the nation, the Southeast and the services industry. In summary, when compared the Atlanta Region over the forecast period. with national and southeastern profiles, the The Atlanta Region, in common with the nation specialties of the Atlanta Region will continue to as a whole, should experience significant growth be wholesale trade, followed bv transportation/ in services and finance/insurance/real estate communications/utilities and finance/insurance/ jobs. A growing population with rising income real estate. Mining, as evidenced in the graph, and increased demand for business services are will contribute the least to the Atlanta Region among the factors expected to contribute to economy. this expansion. Manufacturing should decline slightly in importance in the nation, Southeast and Atlanta Region. This phenomenon is due primarily to the impact of technological advances such as labor-saving devices and increased 10 employee productivity. Although the Southeast Figure 5 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment Projections Atlanta Region 1970-2000 20001pow. 15001 1000 High A@: 500: pop-,,- 0 20001 150D. 10 Most Likely V, 500- 0 2000 1500 13 1000 Low 0 01 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 Thousands Source: Atlanta Regional Commission. Figure 5 and Table 3 show the high, medium and Table 3 low projections for employment to the year 2000 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment in the Atlanta Region, with the medium, or most Projections -Atlanta Region likely, projection the control total adopted by 1970-2000 the Atlanta Regional Commission. With the EMPLOYMENT most likely projection, employment will reach YEAR MOST LIKELY HIGH LOW over 1.5 million by the end of the century (000's) (000's) (000's) (1,579,800 or an increase over 1970 of 1970 621.4 621.4 621.4 154.2 percent). 1980 859.9 940.7 809.4 1990 1,183.1 1,319.4 1,042.2 2000 1,579.8 1,863.0 1,365.0 Source: Atlanta Regional Commission. Employment growth by industry group is shown to receive the largest numerical share of in Figure 6. As stated earlier, this chart shows employment with 291,900 jobs by the end of the that the Atlanta Region is made up of many century. Figure 7 indicates the projected economic parts but is dominated by none of employment profile for manufacturing. While a them. This diversity gives the region its great considerable amount of growth is anticipated in a flexibility and strength. The following is a brief number of the manufacturing components, discussion of the anticipated growth of each employment in this industry group is not expected major industry group. to climb at a high rate: in fact, two components, transportation equipment and textiles, are Manufacturing. forecast to show declines over the period. The Although Atlanta is not viewed nationally as a obscure outlook in the aircraft industry at this manufacturing center, it is still an important time clouds the future of the transportation economic activity for the region. In fact, it is the equipment sector, while new technology is largest manufacturing employment center in the expected to take its toll in the grandfather of Southeast. This will probably be the case over the employers in the Southeast, textiles. forecast period. This industry group is projected Figure 6 Civilian Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment by Industry Group Figure 7 Atlanta Region Manufacturing Employment Profile 1970-2000 Atlanta Region 1970-2000 0 Ile 40 -s el 4f 'A q 4e V 4D 300 J$ A-0 It 0 280- 8 260- 75- 240 70- 220- 65 77777 200- 60 55 180- so 160- 45 140- N 40 120- 35 100- 30 :NQ, '4' 25 80- , kv 20 60- 15 0 0- 40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 rN V-PO 0 0 20- 0 5 is@,1@ 0 0 =1970 =1990 =' - 1970 =1990 @1980 2000 @1980 = 2000 12 Source Atlanta Regional Commission. Source: Atlanta Regional Commission. Services. Transportation/Communications/Utilities (TCU). This industry group is expected to make The transportation system of the Atlanta Region impressive gains over the period. With a projected is vital to the continued growth and development 284,000 jobs by the-end of the century, services of the regional economy. Anticipated, therefore, should be the second largest employer by the is a substantial gain in employment in this year 2000. The primary reason for anticipating industry group over the period: a total of 142,600 strong growth in this industry, a whopping 201.2 persons by the end of the century. The Atlanta percent increase between 1970 and 2000, is Region can expect continued growth in this the growing dominance of business services as a group because of the expected continuation of component of the Atlanta regional economy. the Atlanta Region's role as a major distribution Computer services are a good example of this point. The role of the airline industry as a type of business service which is growing so primary supplier of employment should not wane. significantly. Retail Trade. Employment in retail trade, a bulwark of the regional economy, is expected to continue its path of growth. While suburban retail trade will continue to grow, large stores in the Central Business District are expected to remain anchors of considerable retail activity. This is based on the assumption that the planned rapid transit 1r, r! -syshem will strengthen the Central Business- District's retail employment picture and stimulate growth and development along transit corridors. Retail trade should provide paychecks for 257,300 persons by the year 2000, for a 148.8 percent increase over the employment total for this industry group in 1970. Government. The City of Atlanta has always been a center of governmental activity-in the county, the region, the state and the Southeast. Atlanta is the county seat of Fulton County, the state capital and the Atlanta's Hartsfield International Airport is location of regional offices for many federal forecast to be the fastest-growing airport in the agencies. Other municipalities in the region nation over the decade 1975-1985. Atlanta's role such as Decatur and Marietta are also county as southeastern communications crossroads is seats which contain concentrations of govern- also forecast to continue. These factors will ment employees. The second and third largest continue to make TCU a solid supporter of the state universities in Georgia are found in the regional economic mix. Atlanta Region. Although most branches of the federal government are represented, only a few have large offices in Atlanta, and the military installations, although important, are small compared to those elsewhere in the state and Southeast. Over the forecast period, the growth in governmental employment is expected to continue with an estimated gain of 134,800 jobs by the year 2000. 13 Wholesale Trade. A traditional mainstay in Atlanta's economy, wholesale trade, is forecast to maintain a relatively high rate of increase over the period. A total of 170,100 persons should have jobs in this group by the year 2000. Wholesaling is dependent, to a large degree, on transportation; and with strong transportation networks, the Atlanta Region should not ebb in its activity in wholesaling. All phases of wholesaling are represented in the region, but it may be noted that much of the activity counted as wholesale trade is carried on by manufacturing firms whose Atlanta Region operations are limited to warehousing, sales and service. In fact, much of the space in industrial parks of the region is taken up by manufacturing firms whose local activities are limited to wholesale operations. Finance/Insurance/Real Estate (FIRE). Employment in FIRE should reach 122,800 persons by the year 2000. This projection is predicated on the assumption that more and more of the banking, brokerage, insurance, real estate and holding companies will gravitate to the Atlanta Region from other areas of Georgia and the Southeast. This growth of FIRE employment is not expected, however, to cut significantly PMMML into the employment of the strong financial and insurance centers of the nation, such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Construction. The construction industry feels the curves and dips of the national economy perhaps faster and more sharply than any other sector of the economy. Projections in this regard must take into account cyclical changes. Even so, the Atlanta Region is forecast to gain in this industry group by the year 2000, an increase of 46,900 jobs. This forecast is based on the assumption of continued substantial public 14 and private construction. Income is an important socio-economic variable which must be considered in the planning process because families of varying incomes have different consumption patterns and requirements for public and private services. Inoome Income Trends. The Atlanta Region during the 1960's saw median family income exceed the national average for urban families for the first time. At the beginning of the decade, the median family income of the Atlanta Region was $400 below the national average; at the end of the decade, it was $500 above. The median income for urban families in the United States in 1969 was $10,196, while the Atlanta Region's families had a median income Table 4 of $10,620. Table 4 compares the percent Percent Distribution of Families by Income Range, distribution of families by income range for the United States -Southeast* -Atlanta Region United States, the Southeast, and the Atlanta 1970 Region. UNITED ATLANTA The Atlanta Region is composed of relatively INCOME RANGE STATES SOUTHEAST REGION affluent families. A quarter of the region's Less than $ 3,000 10.3 15.8 8.2 families earn more than $15,000 annually. $ 3,000 to $ 4,999 10.0 13.9 8.1 Compare this with the percentage of families $ 5,000 to $ 6,999 11.8 15.1 10.5 earning the same income for the Southeast as a $ 7,000 to $ 9,999 20.6 20.8 19.2 whole (13 percent) and for the nation as a whole $10,000 to $14,999 26.6 21.3 28.4 (21 percent). At the other end of the scale, that $15,000 to $24,999 16.0 10.1 19.8 is those families earning less than $3,000 annually, the Atlanta Region has a smaller $25,000 and over 4.7 3.0 5.8 percentage in this category than the Southeast or the nation. *Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee. Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census. 15 Income Projections. category in 1970. The assumptions which provide For the purposes of the computer model a foundation for these changes include: (EMPIRIC) projections of total "money income," - Historically, the number of families in the in terms of constant 1970 dollars, and the lower end of the range has decreased. distribution of this income among family households are required. Total money income, - New job opportunities in the region will be as defined by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, is more technical and higher paying. income derived from non-farm wages and - Minimum wages will increase. salaries, net self-employment, social security, railroad retirement, public assistance or welfare - Public and private retirement benefits will and similar income sources. increase and coverage will be extended. Based on this definition, the Atlanta Region can - More women will be working; therefore, expect to move from a region of middle income more families will have two wage earners. families to one of upper income families by the year 2000. The median income for families in this - There will be more persons in the 25-to-64 region is expected to rise from $10,620 in 1970 age group; resultantly, there will be fewer to $21,843 by 2000 in terms of constant 1970 non-earners. dollars. Perhaps the most dramatic development - Educational opportunities will be greater. over the forecast period will be the effect this With a more skilled labor force, incomes rising income will have on the lower end of the will be higher. economic spectrum: there will most likely be no families earning less than $3,000 by the year Table 5 gives the distribution of families in the 2000. Compare this with eight percent in this seven-county Atlanta Region by income ranges through the year 2000. Table 5 Distribution of Families by Income Range- Atlanta Region 1970-2000 PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT INCOME RANGE 1970 OF TOTAL 1980 OF TOTAL 1990 OF TOTAL 2000 OF TOTAL (Census money income in constant 1970 dollars) Less than $ 3,000 29,903 8.2 27,113 5.0 16,435 2.2 0 0.0 $ 3,000 to $ 4,999 29,538 8.1 30,240 5.6 25,170 3.4 6,977 0.7 $ 5,000 to $ 6,999 38,290 10.5 42,671 7.9 39,678 5.4 26,882 2.8 $ 7,000 to $ 9,999 70,017 19.2 79,438 14.8 72,929 10.0 48,129 5.1 $10,000 to $11,999 47,042 12.9 64,086 11.9 75,857 10.4 81,193 8.6 $12,000 to $14,999 56,524 15.5 78,573 14.6 97,679 13.3 114,111 12.1 $15,000 to $24,999 72,205 19.8 125,619 23.4 196,652 26.9 286,564 30.3 $25,000 to $49,999 17,504 4.8 72,131 13.4 162,739 22.2 294,551 31.1 $50,000 or more 3,647 1.0 18,204 3.4 .44,954 6.2 87,982 9.3 Total 364,670 100.0 538,075 100.0 732,093 100.0 946,389 100.0 Median Income of Families $10,620 $12,953 $16,953 $21,843 16 Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. metropolitan areas with a population of a million popubtlen plus, only seven other regions had growth rates which exceeded that of the Atlanta SMSA. Here Population Growth Trends. is how these SMSA's ranked: Population growth is not a new phenomenon to the Atlanta Region. Since the turn of the century, the region has enjoyed a steady SMSA PERCENT population growth (Table 6). Recently, however, there has been a dramatic population growth Anaheim/Santa Ana/Garden 101.8 surge: between 1950 and 1970, the Atlanta Region Grove, California gained 57.2 percent of the total growth it has San Jose, California 65.8 experienced since 1900. The 1974 estimate of population in the region is 1,636,000.2 Houston, Texas 59.7 When the 1960-to-1970 growth rate of the Atlanta Indianapolis, Indiana 59.1 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) Dallas, Texas 43.6 is compared with the growth rates of other Washington, D.C./ 42.9 Maryland/Virginia San Bernardino/ 40.8 Table 6 Riverside, California Population Growth ATLANTA, GEORGIA 36.7 Atlanta Region 1900-1970 TEN-YEAR INCREASE YEAR NUMBER OF PERSONS NUMBER PERCENT 1900 230,953 - - 1910 309,270 78,317 33.9 1920 387,172 77,902 25.2 1930 495,727 108,555 28.0 1940 576,619 80,892 16.3 1950 747,626 171,007 29.7 1960 1,044,321 296,695 39.7 1970 1,436,975 392,654 37.6 The figures above from 1900 through 1970 include all seven metropolitan counties (Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Gwinnett, and Rock- dale) and, in addition, figures for 1930 and previous years include old Milton and Campbell counties which were annexed to Fulton in 1932. Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census. @1974 Population and Housing, Atlanta Regional Commission, January 1975. 17 It must be pointed out that only Atlanta, Houston, Among other major metropolitan areas in the Dallas, Washington and Indianapolis are primary Southeast (Table 8), Atlanta maintained its metropolitan areas. The others are parts of position as number one in population size ahead clusters around Los Angeles and San Francisco of Miami, Florida, which had been projected to and, thus, owe much of their growth to spillover overtake Atlanta by the mid-1960'S. 3 Over the from these primary areas rather than to decade of the sixties, Atlanta also led the other self-generated development. When viewed in SMSA's in amount of population growth. this light, the Atlanta SMSA was the fifth fastest-growing primary metropolitan area in the nation during the period 1960-to-1970. In addition, Atlanta ranked twentieth in 1970 among all U. S. metropolitan areas having one million or more population as seen in Table 7. Table 7 Growth Trends in the U.S. Metropolitan Areas of One Million or More Population 1960-1970 INCREASE POPULATION 1960 TO 1970 Table 8 RANK METROPOLITAN AREA 1970 1960 NUMBER PERCENT Growth Trends in the Largest Southeastern 1 New York. N.Y 11,571.819 10.694,633 877,18C 8.2 2 Los Angeles-Long Beach. Calif. 7,036, 457 6.74Z696 293,761 4.4 Metropolitan Areas 3 Ch icago. 111 6974 423 6.220,913 753,510 12,1 1960-1970 4 Ph iladelph'a, Penn.-N.J. 4:817:894 4,342,897 474,997 10,9 5 Detroit, Mich. 4,199,923 3,762,360 437,563 11,6 INCREASE 6 San Francisco-Oakland, Calif. 3.109,514 2,783,359 326,155 117 POPULATION 1960 TO 1970 7 Washi ngton, D. C.-Md.-Va. 2.861.102 2,001,897 859,205 429 8 Bo ston, Mass. 2.753,804 2,589,301 164.503 64 METROPOLITAN AREA 1970 1960 NUMBER PERCENT 9 Pittsburgh. Pa. 2,401.217 2,405,435 -4,218 @2 Allanta. Ga. 1.390.164 1.017.188 372.976 363 10 St. Lou iaMo.-Ill. 2,363,013 2,060,103 302,910 147 Miami, Fla. 1 267 792 935,047 332.745 35.6 11 Baltinno r@,Md. 2,070668 1,727,023 343.645 199 2 Clevel d, 0 19 Tampa-St. Petersburg. Fla. 1.012.585 772 453 240.132 31 1 ON 2,064 192 17 6,595 267,597 149 13 n, T x. 1.984,940 .243,158 741.782 59@7 14 Newark. N. J. 1,856,554 1,689,420 167.134 99 Memphis, Tenn -Ark 770,079 627,019 143.060 228 15 Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. 1@811647 1,482,030 331.617 224 Birmingham. Ala 739.274 634864 104.410 16.4 16 Dallas, Tax, 1556.134 1.083.601 472.533 43.6 17 Seattle_ Everett, Wash 1.421.863 1.107.213 314,650 28A Ft Lau derdale-Hol lywood. Fla 620.059 333.946 286.113 851 18 Anaheim- Santa Ana-Garden Nashville-Davidson. Tenn 541.105 399 743 141.362 354 Grove, Calif. 1,420,386 704,000 716,386 101 8 19 Milwau kee, Wisc, 1,4 3,688 1,194,290 209398 17@5 Jacksonville. Fla 528.865 455 411 73.454 16 1 20 ATLANTA GA 1.3090,164 017,188 372:976 36.7 Orlando. Fla 428,003 318,487 109.516 344 21 Cincinn at @, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. 1,384.842 1,071.624 313,218 29@2 22 Peterson- Clifton-Passaic. N, J. 1,358,794 1,186,873 171,921 14.5 Charlotte, N C 409,370 272.111 137.259 504 23 San Diego .Calif. 1. 357,387 1,033,011 324,376 31A Knoxville. Tenn 400.337 368.080 32.257 88 24 Bulfalo, N, Y, 1,349,210 1,306@957 42,253 12 25 Miami Fla, C @.267.792 1,935,047 332,745 35.6 Mobile. Ala 376,690 314.301 62.389 199 26 Kansas ity , Missouri-Kan. .253.912 039,493 214.419 20@6 West Palm Beach Fla 348.753 228.106 120.647 529 27 Denver. Colo 1,227.612 929,283 298.229 321 28 San Bermirdino-Rwerside- Columbia. S C 322.880 260.828 62.052 238 Onl.rio, Ga i1f. 1.140.164 809,782 330,382 40.8 Chattanooga. Tenn -Ga. 305,755 283.169 22.586 80 29 Indianapolis, nd. i.1 09.882 697.567 412315 59.1 30 San Jose 'Ca if. .064.714 642,315 422@399 66,8 Charleston. S. C 303.842 216.382 87@460 40A 31 New Orleans, La. 1,045,005 868,480 177,325 20.4 Jackson. Miss 258.897 187.045 71@852 38.4 32 Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla 1,012,585 772,453 240,132 31 1 33 Portland, Oregon-Wash. 1,009,129 821,897 187.232 228 Augusta. Ga -S C 253.460 216,639 3&821 ITO Source J, S. Bureau of the Census, Source: U S Bureau of the Census. 3AtIanta Silhouettes -People, Jobs and Land, Atlanta Region Metropolitan 18 Planning Commission, January 1962. A distinction must be made at this point. While As Table 9 shows, the population of the Atlanta the Atlanta Region had the greatest amount of Region grew 37.6 percent between 1960 and 1970 growth in the Southeast among SIVISA's, it while the population of the State of Georgia ranked sixth in the rate of growth. The reason grew 16.4 percent. In 1960, the Atlanta Region for this is a matter of simple arithmetic: the larger contained one-fourth of the state's population the base, the larger the amount of increase (see Figure 8); by 1970, that proportion had required to maintain or accelerate past growth reached almost one-third. This does not rates. It is reasonable to expect, therefore, that necessarily mean that the Atlanta Region grew the Atlanta Region's growth rate will gradually at the expense of other urban areas in the state. decline even though its annual increments will A number of these urban areas grew substantially continue to increase. on their own during the 1960's, while many rural counties lost population. Table 9 Figure 8 Population Growth Atlanta Region and State of Georgia Population of the Atlanta Region 1960-1970 As a Percent of the State of Georgia. INCREASE 1960-1970 POPULATION 1960 TO 1970 31.3% AREA 1970 1960 NUMBER PERCENT Atlanta Region 1,436,975 1,044,321 392,654 37.6 Georgia 4,589,575 3,943,116 646,459 16.4 1970- Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1960- 26.5% =Atlanta Region = Georgia Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 19 Population Projections. It is assumed that as industry's demand for employees increases, the population will grow to supply those employees. The projections below were derived by making certain assumptions about future labor force participation rates which link population to employment. These assumptions, along with unemployment rate assumptions, were necessary to produce the population projections presented in Table 10 and Fiqure 9. The Atlanta Figure 9 Population of the Atlanta Region 1970-2000 5000 4000 3000 HIGH 2000 1000 0 4000- 3000- 2000 - MOST LIKELY 1000 0- Tam-,.' 4000- V 3000 r ,20 0 LOW 0 -100 F 0 .0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4900 5000 Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Comission. Regional Commission is satisfied that these Table 10 projections, based on future employment trends, Population Projections will reflect the growth potential of the Atlanta Atlanta Region Region. 1970-2000 NUMBER OF PERSONS YEAR MOST LIKELY HIGH LOW (000's) (000's) (000's) 1970 1,437.0 1,437.0 1,437.0 1980 1,991.3 2,129.3 1,827.6 1990 2,678.2 2,933.0 2,297.9 2000 3,478.5 4,081.4 2,951.0 Source: 1970 Census of Population and Housing, Census Tract Bulle- tin, Table P-1, U. S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional 20 Commission. The most likely projection selected for planning purposes implies: � A 142.1 percent increase in the population of the Atlanta Region is forecast between 1970 and 2000. � The population of the Atlanta Region will reach the two million mark in the early 1980's and the three million mark by the mid-1990's. � The average annual increase in the number Table 11 of persons will accelerate from 39,265 in Anticipated Average Annual Increase in Number of Persons and Percent Increase Per Decade 1970 to 55,430 in 1980 and 79,130 in 2000 Atlanta Region (see Table 11). 1970-2000 � The rate of increase would jump from 37.6 NUMBER OF PERSONS PERCENTINCREASE percent per decade in 1970 to 38.6 percent YEAR PER YEAR PER DECADE per decade in 1980, then decline to 34.9 1970 39,270 37.6 percent in 1990 and 29.4 percent in 2000 1980 55,430 38.6 (see Table 11). 1990 69,590 34.9 Table 12 provides comparisons of relative 2000 79,130 29.4 population growth for the Atlanta Region, the State of Georgia, the Southeast and the United States. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. Table 12 Population Projections - United States - Southeast* - Georgia - Atlanta Region 1970-2000 POPULATION CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE (000's) 1970 TO 1980 1980 TO 1990 1990 TO 2000 AREA 1970 1980 1990 2000 NUMBER PERCENT NUMBER PERCENT NUMBER PERCENT United States 203,213.0 224,132.0 246,639.0 264,430.0 20,919.0 10.3 22,507.0 10.0 17,791.0 7.2 Southeast- 28,637.0 31,753.0 34,655.0 NA 3,166.0 10.9 2,902.0 9.1 NA NA Georgia 4,590.0 5,191.0 5,761.0 NA 601.0 13.1 570.0 11.0 NA NA Atlanta Region 1,437.0 1,991,3 2,687.2 3,478.5 554.3 38.6 695.9 34.9 791.3 29.4 Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee. **Current projections for Southeastern states not available to the year 2000. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projection Series E, P-25 Series, No. 493, December 1972 for United States projections; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projection Series I-E, P-25 Series, No. 477, March 1972 for Georgia and Southeast projections; Atlanta Regional Commission. 21 Table 13 Population by Age Groups This Economic Base Study assumes over the Atlanta Region period 1970-to-2000: 1970 and 2000 1970 2000 - The Atlanta Region will expand in popula- PERCENT PERCENT tion to 3.5 million persons. AGE GROUPS NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL - The population of the United States will 0- 9 280,374 19.5 570,472 16.4 probably increase to 265 million persons. 10-19 275,207 19.1 539.167 15.5 - The population of the southeastern United 20-29 254,059 17.7 611,814 17.6 States will most likely increase to 38 million 30-39 188,449 13.1 560,039 16.1 personS.4 40-49 170,784 11.9 518,298 14.9 - The population of the State of Georgia will 50-59 127,592 8.9 323,500 9.3 most likely increase to 6.4 million persons. 5 60 and over 140,510 9.8 355,161 10.2 The Atlanta Region's share of the total population TOTAL 1,436,975 3,478,451 of the State of Georgia should increase from Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970 Census of Population. General 31.3 percent in 1970 to 46.6 percent in 1990. Population Characteristics, Georgia, and Atlanta Regional Although an official projection for the population Commission. of Georgia in 2000 is not available, the Atlanta Region could conceivably have more than half the state's population by the next century. Age Composition. The Atlanta Region, like most areas of the Table 14 country with above average economic conditions, Population by Age Groups United States has a relatively young population. The median 1970 and 2000 age for the seven-county region in 1970 was 26.3 1970 2000 years, while the national median age was 28.1 PERCENT PERCENT years. AGE GROUPS NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL Figure 10 and Tables 13 and 14 show a 0- 9 37,166,840 18.3 38,846,000 14.7 comparison of anticipated changes in population 10-19 40,041,809 19.7 41,897,000 15.8 by age groups in the Atlanta Region and the 20-29 29,500,355 14.5 36,815,000 13.9 United States between 1970 and 2000. 30-39 22,600,645 11.1 38,690,000 14.6 While it is expected that the median age of the 40-49 24,065,870 11.8 40,275,000 15.3 population of the Atlanta Region should remain 50-59 21,084,230 10.4 29,164,000 11.0 below the national average, the age distribution 60 and over 28,753,128 14.2 38,743,000 14.7 is expected to change in the years ahead. This TOTAL 203,212,877 264,430,000 redistribution over three decades will cause the 4Year 2000 projections for the Southeast were made by extrapolating available Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970 Censusof Population, General 1970, 19130, and 1990 data. Social and Economic Characteristics, U.S. Summary; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projection Series E, P-25 Series, No. @Year 2000 projections for Georgia were made by extrapolating available 1970. 22 493, December 1972. 1980, and 1990 data. Figure 10 Population by Age Groups Atlanta Region and United States 1970 and 2000 60 n a, over 50 5: T. t I 40-49 30-39 20 29 10-19 0- 9 NO 1 18 1716 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1314 15 16 17 18 19 20 1970 Percent Percent 2000 ATLANTA REGION UNITED STATES Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. Atlanta Region's median age to move up from Figure 11 shows the population pyramid, or tree 26.3 years in 1970 to 30.3 in 2000. Meanwhile the of ages, which summarizes age and sex national median age will go from 28.1 in 1970 characteristics in percentages for the years 1970 to 34.0 in 2000. and 2000. Table 15 contains the actual numbers. Figure 11 Population by Five-Year Age Groups Atlanta Region 1970 and 2000 75 and over 70-74 65-69 60-64 3- 55-59 ::J r 50-54 45-49 1, 6:@ 40-44 E_ 35-39 2 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5- 9 0- 4 1701601501401 0120 110100 90 80 70 60 1 30 40 50 60 7'0 80 9.0 1:0011.0120130140150 160170 MALE Thousands Thousands FEMALE 1970 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. 23 Table 15 Population by Five-Year Age Groups - Atlanta Region 1970 and 2000 1970 2000 CHANGE NUMBER OF PERSONS NUMBER OF PERSONS 1970 TO 2000 AGE GROUPS MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE 0- 4 67,893 65,460 149,607 142,585 81,714 77,125 5- 9 74,743 72,278 142,314 135,966 67,571 63,688 10-14 74,197 72,152 138,465 132,857 64,268 60,705 15-19 64,138 64,720 134,968 132,877 70,830 68,157 20-24 58,332 72,820 141,386 154,284 83,054 81,464 25-29 60,123 62,784 156,405 159,739 96,282 96,955 30-34 49,269 49,582 138,426 136,376 89,157 86,794 35-39 44,515 45,083 143,217 142,020 98,702 96,937 40-44 42,929 44,925 139,156 142,603 96,227 97,678 45-49 40,438 42,492 11 k8ii 119,728 76,373 77,236 50-54 33,669 35,902 93,697 97,621 60,028 61,719 55-59 27,311 30,710 63,388 68,794 36,077 38,084 60-64 20,896 25,996 44,730 52,668 23,834 26,672 65-69 14,335 21,203 35,230 48,253 20,895 27,050 70-74 9,457 15,546 25,331 37,281 15,874 21,735 75 and Over 10,895 22,182 42,498 69,170 31,603 46,988 Total 693,140 743,835 1,705,629 1,772,822 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. The under-five age group in 1970 reflects the Perhaps the most significant characteristic of the declining birth rate of the 1960's, while the baby pyramid for the year 2000 is the pronounced boom population, born in the 1940's and 1950's, bulge representing the 20-to-54 age groups, in creates a bulge in the 10-to-14, 15-to-19 and particular the 20-to-44 age groups which make 20-to-24 age groups. There is also a substantial up the bulk of the labor force. The upper portion proportion of people aged 65 and over indicating of the bulge (40-to-44, 45-to-49 and 50-to-54) is a decline in the death rate. the post-war baby boom population which comprised the 10-to-24 age groups in 1970. The The age distribution for the year 2000 is quite a lower portion of the bulge (20-to-24, 25-to-29, bit different. A continuing decline in birth rates 30-to-34 and 35-to-39) can be attributed, in part, will result in a decrease in the proportion of to the in-migration of young adults to the persons aged 0-19, from 38.7 percent of the total Atlanta Region. in 1970 to 31.9 percent in 2000. Meanwhile, the proportion of the population over age 65 will These age redistributions are of great significance: increase from 6.5 percent in 1970 to 7.4 percent changes in public facilities will have to be made i n 2000. to accommodate changing demand. For example, the larger share of older people will increase the demand for services and facilities for the elderly. 24 In-migration. There are two components of population change: natural increase which is births minus deaths and net in-migration. The chief reason why the Table 16 Atlanta Region grew as much as it did during the Number of Households and Persons Per Household sixties was net in-migration from other parts of Atlanta Region the country. During the decade of the 1960's, 1960-2000 net in-migration accounted for more than half NUMBER OF PERSONS PER of the region's population growth (54.7 percent), YEAR HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLD while natural increase accounted for the 1960 298,518 3.42 remaining portion (45.3 percent).6 1970 442,813 3.18 Although projections for both migration and 1980 670,625 2.92 natural increase are not available for the year 1990 927,689 2.86 2000, there is ample reason to believe that net 2000 1,214,717 2.83 in-migration will continue to be the chief contributor to the population increase of the Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. Atlanta Region. This assumption is supported by such factors as zero-population-growth attitudes and more family planning. Households. Since the 1960's the number of persons per household has been declining sharply. This trend should continue until the mid-seventies, and thereafter more slowly. Because of this trend, the number of households in the Atlanta Region will grow considerably faster than the population in the earlier decades of the forecast period but less so in the latter (Table 16). In this way, it is possible for the number of households to continue to grow even with a slightly declining population. @U. S. Bureau of the Census, General Demographic Trends for Metropolitan Areas, 1960 to 1970, Georgia, July 1971 25 Household is defined by the U. S. Bureau of the Census in two ways: a family household consists Figure 12 of a household head and one or more persons Household Growth by Type living in the household who are related to the Atlanta Region head; a primary household consists of a 1960 -2000 household head living alone or with non-relatives. In addition, by definition, a household occupies a housing unit. Thus, growth in households 2000 implies an equal growth in occupied housing 1300 units. -300 1200 -200 100 1000 5 900 800 700 600 500 400 "W; 300 200 1100 0 0 HOUSEHOLDS FAMILIES PRIMARY INDIVIDUALS 26 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. During the three decades of this forecast period, the number of households in the Atlanta Region will most likely triple (see Figure 12). The lion's share of the total number of households in the year 2000 (581,719 out of a total of 771,904) is expected to be composed of family households. Table 17 summarizes these and other demographic data. Table 17 Population and Households- Atlanta Region 1960-2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 TOTAL POPULATION 1,044,321 1,436,975 1,991,342 2,687,213 3,478,450 In Group Quarters 23,844 25,354* 29,800 35,400 41,600 In Households 1,020,477 1,409,263 1,961,542 2,651,813 3,436,850 Households 298,518 442,813 670,625 927,689 1,214,717 Families 260,329 364,670 538,075 732,093 946,389 Primary Individuals 38,189 78,143 132,550 195,596 268,328 Average Household Size 3.42 3.18 2.92 2.86 2.83 *Numbers do not add to total population because of Census error. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Atlanta Regional Commission. 27 Highlights of the Report The economic environment of the Atlanta Based on constant 1970 dollars, the median Region will be shaped in part by future income of families in the region is expected growth trends in employment, population to rise from $10,620 in 1970 to $@1,843 by the and income. year 2000. The Atlanta Region's employment will rise Two milestones in population growth will be from 621,400 in 1970 to 1,579,800 by 2000, reached during the forecast period: the two a 154.2 percent increase. million mark will occur during the early The greatest economic strength of the 1980's and the three million mark will occur region is that the Atlanta Region will not in the mid-1990's. be entirely dependent upon any one type The Atlanta Region may possibly have more of industry. than fifty percent of Georgia's population by By industry group, services, finance/ the end of the century. insurance/real estate and wholesale trade The Atlanta Region, like most areas which will experience the highest rates of growth have experienced above average economic during the forecast period. Although growth, is expected to maintain a relatively manufacturing is projected to have a much young population compared with the nation. slower rate of growth, it is expected to In 2000, the median age will be 30.3 while receive the largest numerical share of the median age for the nation will be 34.0. projected employment. Between 1970 and 2000 the number of Because of its transportation facilities, the households will almost triple and the Atlanta Region will continue to be one of average household size will decline from the pivotal distribution points of the nation, 3.42 to 2.83 persons. a distinction which is complemented by its status as a regional communications headquarters. 28 Methodology EMPLOYMENT The projections for 1980, 1990, and 2000 involved The employment projections were prepared by a the following steps for each component or composite of: industry group of employment: 1. Step-down Method: This method attempts 1. Analysis of United States' employment in the to determine the level of economic activity past and determination of probable future in the study area in future years based on course on the basis of assumed annual the ratio of such activity in the study area increases for each ten-year period. to that in a larger economic area of which Projections prepared by the National the study area is a part. This method Planning Association were used as a guide requires forecasts for the larger area (state, in making projections for the United States. region, or nation). It assumes that economic 2. Observation of the southeastern share of activity in the study area is dependent upon United States' employment and Georgia's the level of economic activity of the larger share of southeastern employment and area and that this functional relationship will not change during the forecast period. determination of probable future employment. 2. Sector Analysis: This method analyzes and 3. Repetition of this operation between the forecasts on a finer level of detail. Future changes are estimated separately for each Atlanta Region and Georgia, with additional sector (industry group) specifically calculations of the Atlanta Region's identified, taking into consideration the relationship to the Southeast as a whole potential growth or decline of the in some instances. Interviews with a cross industries presently in the area along with section of Atlanta employers were used for those that may be attracted to the area. guidance in determining the Atlanta Region's appropriate share of state and The main source of data for analyzing the role of regional employment for some of the employment in the economy of Atlanta is employment sectors. derived from publications of the U. S. Bureau of 4. Summation of projected figures for each Labor Statistics (BLS) and its affiliate, the decade and calculation of percentage Georgia Employment Security Agency. These shares of each category to total employment data provide a time series for Atlanta extending for the United States, Southeast, Georgia back to 1949 and for Georgia the series goes and Atlanta Region. Comparison of back to 1939. resulting employment profiles in order to The statistical universe consists of civilian spot unreasonable departures from normal non-farm wage and salary employees by place interrelationships among categories was of work. Not included are the following persons: made. farmers and farm workers, proprietors, self- employed, unpaid family workers, domestic household workers, and the armed forces. 29 POPULATION 3. Future resident labor force was derived by The Atlanta Region's population was projected to first assuming an unemployment rate to the supply the labor force required to support the year 2000 and then adding forecast resident forecast regional employment growth. The employment to forecast unemployment. population forecasting methodology consisted Specifically, of the following five steps: 1. After civilian non-farm wage and salary Resident Labor Force = Resident Employment - Unemployment employment was forecast by industry 4. Assumptions about the labor force groups, total employment was derived by participation ratios, which link population adding in projections of farmers and farm to employment, were made; the ratios were workers, proprietors, the self-employed, then projected to the year 2000. Primary unpaid family workers, domestic household assumptions supporting higher ratios workers, and the armed forces. included (a) post-war baby boom population 2. Net-incommuter projections were then will remain in the labor force through 2000, subtracted from total employment to get and (b) more females will enter the labor resident employment. force. 5. The population required to support the labor force was then computed by dividing the projected resident labor force (sum of resident employment plus unemployment) by projected labor force participation ratios. 30 INCOME Projections for "total personal income" were then Briefly the methodology for projecting income converted to "money income." Money income is included the following steps: approximately 85 percent of total personal income Per capita income for the region was determined In the Atlanta Region. Money income is derived from comparison of 1970 census data on money from forecasts of total 1972 personal income for income for the year 1969 (converted to 1970 Georgia. (Total personal income includes dollars) with Survey of Current Business data payments in kind and the equivalent rental value for total personal income for the SMSA for the of owner-occupied housing.) These state year 1970. projections were based on: 1. past trends from Survey of Current Finally, all projected figures of money income Business, U. S. Department of Commerce, were converted from 1972 dollars to 1970 dollars for Georgia and other states in the using a ratio from the Consumer Price Index. The Southeast, and results give projections to the year 2000 of money income for both families and unrelated 2. a constant dollar increase in per capita individuals in constant 1970 dollars. income for the state of 3.25 percent per The final step in order to obtain family income year. This is a conservative forecast for the needed for the activity allocation model was to future since the annual change from 1960 calculate incomes of persons living in group to 1970 for the nation as a whole was 3.10 quarters and of unrelated individuals living in percent each year and the Southeast households to determine the residual to be (twelve states) was 4.31 percent per year. distributed among families. Using the projected Once the state totals for future years were aggregate family household income and the determined, the regional total personal income number of family households for the area, the was calculated for the same years by comparing number of families per income range was past trends of metropolitan area total personal derived. A statistical procedure was used to income (May issues of Survey of Current determine the median income for future years. Business) with Georgia totals for the same past The allocation of families above and below the years and forecasting continuing increases in median was largely subjective. metropolitan ai@ea income as a percent of the state totals. 31 The Atlanta Regional 061010183100 Officers H. M. Bradford, Citizen Member (District 6) Ernest Barrett, Chairman of the Cobb County Bobby Brisendine, Chairman of the Rockdale Commission and Chairman of the Atlanta County Commission Regional Commission Goodwyn "Shag" Cates, Chairman of the Fulton Bill Atkinson, Chairman of the Gwinnett County County Commission Commission and Vice-Chairman of the Atlanta Jack Crowder, Citizen Member (District 3) Regional Commission Carole Dubac, Citizen Member (District 10) Randolph Medlock, Mayor of Stone Mountain Dana Eastham, Mayor of Marietta and Secretary of the Atlanta Regional Howard Fling, Citizen Member (District 5) Commission A. C. Guhl, Chairman of the DeKalb County Ellinor Dye, Citizen Member (District 15) and Commission Treasurer of the Atlanta Regional Commission Glenn Hatcher, Citizen Member (District 9) Maynard H. Jackson, Mayor of Atlanta and Parliamentarian of the Atlanta Regional Lamar Hutcheson, Mayor of Riverdale Commission Ira Jackson, Atlanta City Councilman James P. Jackson, Citizen Member (District 2) Joseph Jacobs, Citizen Member (District 8) Tobe Johnson, Citizen Member (District 4) Fred A. Keel, Citizen Member (District 12) W. L. Mabry, Jr., Mayor of Roswell Audrey Forbes Manley, Citizen Member (District 14) Gwynne D. Maurer, Mayor of Douglasville Nathaniel Mosby, Citizen Member (District 1) George Owens, Mayor of Conyers Claude Roberts, Citizen Member (District 13) R. L. Smith, Chairman of the Douglas County Commission H. Hammond Stith, Citizen Member (District 11) Lillian Webb, Mayor of Norcross Jack Wells, Chairman of the Clayton County Commission Mildred B. Williams, Citizen Member (District 7) Harry West Executive Director DA7E DUE GAYLORDIND. 2333 PANTED im U.S.k fit 36668