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0 a 7cro @stal Zone SEP 16 1974 ormation Ogg g jull Center C CUM A conceptual report Economic Development in the Texas Coastal Zone ATTACHMENT V QV R VI Division of Planning Coordination Office of the Governor HC 107 T4 March 1973 @ Sta Zone rma tion t Cen jer T36 1973 C-2 A conceptual report E C 0 N 0 M I C D E V E L 0 P M E N T I N T H E T E X A S COASTAL ZONE Prepared for OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR DIVISION OF PLANNING COORDINATION COASTAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROGRAM INTERAGENCY COUNCIL ON NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT STATE OF TEXAS Property of CSC Library by SEA GRANT PROGRAM COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY MARCH 1973 NN U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA LU COAISTAL SERVICES CENTER 2234 ")OUIH HOBSON AVENUE CHARLESTON SC 29405-2413 This report prepared by SEA GRANT PROGRAM TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY John MiZoy., Project Director Contributions by Gerald R. Rapp, Industrial Economics Research Division David M. French, Industrial Economics Research Division James R. Bradley, Head of Industrial Economics Research Division Prepared for THE INTERAGENCY COUNCIL ON NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION BOARD DoZph Briscoe, Governor Harvey Davis, Executive Director AIR CONTROL BOARD WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD CharZes Barden, Executive Secretary Harry P. BurZeigh, Executive Director DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WATER RIGHTS COMMISSION John C. White, Commissioner Judge Otha F. Dent, Chairman GENERAL LAND OFFICE WATER QUALITY BOARD Bob Armstrong, Commissioner Hugh C. Yantis Jr., Executive Director HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT TEXAS FOREST SERVICE J.C. DingwaZZ., State Highway Engineer PauZ R. Kramer_, Director INDUSTRIAL COMMISSION James H. HarweZZ. Executive Director EX-OFFICIO MEMBERS PARKS & WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN CZayton T. Garrison_, Executive Director Stephen Spurr, President BUREAU OF ECONOMIC GEOLOGY TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY WiZZiam L. Fisher, Director John C. CaZhoun Jr., Vice President RAILROAD COMMISSION for Academic Affairs George F. SingZetary, Administrator Staff Support Provided by the Division of Planning Coordination, Ed Grisham, Director. Joe B. Harris - Coordinator of NaturaZ Resources Joe.C. MoseZey II - Project Director, CoastaZ Resources Management Progrcon Linda Johnston Reports Editor CharZes Cooke PZanning AnaZyst FOREWORD Economic changes occurring in the 36 counties comprising the Coastal Zone--of Texas are presented in this report, Economic Development StUdy-a@ the Texas Coastal Zone. I As one of six studies sponsored by the Coastal Resources Management Program of Texas under the Interagency Council on Natural Resources and the Environment, this study provided baseline data on economic, human,and-'natural resources of the Coastal Zone and the State of Texas. An analysis of these resources reveals numerous clues to growth patterns and changes occurring in the Coastal Zone. Identifica- tion and recognition of factors important to future developments in the Coastal Zone are essential if coastal resources are to be preserved, protected and developed for maximum benefits to present and future generations. In addition to the economic development study, other research studies in the comprehensive program include bay and estuarine management, legal/institutional arrangements, power plant siting, transportation, and waste management alternatives. The economic development study was conducted and the report pre- pared by Gerald R. Rapp, David M. French and John Miloy of the Industrial Economics Research Division, College of Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. Basic data concerned with the economic growth of the Coastal Zone for the past 30 years have been assembled by the authors with specific documentation of population, industrial, employment and income trends. Current resources have been analyzed according to their renewable and nonrenewable characteristics. Urban and rural changes have been identified and discussed with emphasis on significant economic data. Future assumptions and economic projections have been generated to evaluate potential economic changes in the Coastal Zone of Texas to the year 2000. Particular emphasis has been placed on population shifts, industry changes and employment levels. The Industrial Economics Research Division is grateful for the assistance of fi rms and companies, numerous federal and state agencies, and many individuals who provided information and other assistance in the development of the study. Particular appreciation by the authors is acknowledged to Joe B. Harris and Joe C. Moseley II of the Coastal Resources Management Program for their cooperation and assistance. This project was partially funded by the National Sea Grant Program's grant 2-35213, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion, U.S. Department of Commerce, made to Texas A&M University. James R. Bradley, Head Industrial Economics Research Division Texas A&M University College Station, Texas June, 1972 i SYNOPSIS POPULATION TRENDS The Texas Coastal Zone experienced a higher rate of growth than the rest of the state from 1940 to 1970. Total population increased from 1,539,221 in 1940 to 3,502,546 in 1970. It is expected that Coastal Zone population will range from 5 to 6 million persons by the year 2000. INDUSTRIAL GROWTH TRENDS Primary or extraction industries have declined in importance relative to the manufacturing and services sector in the study area. Agriculture in the Coastal Zone remained at a constant 18 percent of total state market value. This is expected to remain relatively constant as livestock will undergo a relative decrease in value and crop values will increase. Mining activities increased in economic importance to almost twice that of agriculture in the Coastal Zone by 1970 and are expected to continue increasing due to more intensive offshore activities. Secondary industries, i.e., the various manufacturing activities, remained constant in economic importance but will slowly increase at the expense of primary industries. Increases in value added by manufacture over the study period were due mainly to the growth of the chemical and petrochemical industries. Future growth, however, will be due largely to food processing activities. Tertiary industries, or the trade and service sectors, have increased in relative importance in recent years and will continue to do so in the future at the expense of primary and secondary industry activities. Tertiary industries in the Coastal Zone will climb to 55 percent of total industrial sector activities by the year 2000. EMPLOYIENT TRENDS Employment trends essentially follow the same pattern as industrial growth trends with growth in primary industry employment lagging behind the other sectors. The Coastal Zone is projected to provide over one- third of the 2.2 million new jobs generated in the state by the year 2000. URBAN AND RURAL CHANGES The largest growth in population has been in the metropolitan sectors of the region, so also has the per capita income. In 1969, iii about 36 percent of the land area of the Coastal Zone contained 87 percent of the population and 91 percent of the total earnings of the labor force in the study area. Growth into as yet undeveloped areas of the Coastal Zone is not expected until the latter part of the century. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Synopsis 1. History of Economic Growth II. Current Resources III. Urban and Rural Changes TV. Future Assumptions and Economic Projections APPENDICES A. Projection Methodology B. Future Studies C. Economic Implications of the Texas Superport D. Economic Considerations of a Nuplex Bibliography OF FIGU.@ES Chapter I 1-2 Study Area--Coastal Zone State Planning Regions and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas 1-5 Population Trends in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1940-1970 (Absolute Numbers) 1-6 Population Trends in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1940-1970 (Percent Change) I-11 Cash Receipts for Crops and Livestock in the Coastal Zone as a Percentage of Total Cash Receipts for the State 1-30 Employment Trends by Broad Industrial Sectors in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1948-1970 (Absolute Numbers) 1-38 Earnings by Broad Industrial Sectors as a Percent of Total Earnings 1940-1970 Chapter II NONE Chapter III 111-2 Population Distribution Trends in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1940-1970 (Percent Urban) 111-6 Per Capita Income Trends in Metropolitan and Non- Metropolitan Areas of Texas and the Coastal Zone 1940-1969 (In Dollars) 111-8 Total Earnings for Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Areas of the Coastal Zone 1940-1969 Chapter IV IV-3 Projected Population Ranges for Texas and the Coastal Zone 1940-2000 (Absolute Numbers) IV-4 Projected Population Trends in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1970-2000 (Percent Change) IV-5 Mid-Range Population Projections for Coastal1one State Planning Regions 1960-2000 IV-8 Dollar Value of Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Industry Sector Earnings in the Coastal Zone 1940-2000 IV-9 Projected Broad Industrial Sector Earnings of the Coastal Zone 1940-2000 IV-10 Cash Receipts for Crops and Livestock in the Coastal Zone Chapter IV (cont'd) IV-13 Cash Receipts for Agricultural Commodities in the Coastal Zone IV-14 Dollar Value of Minerals Produced in Texas and the Coastal Zone IV-15 Cumulative Volume of Crude Oil Production in Texas and the Coastal Zone IV-18 Dollar Value of Industry Sector Earnings due to Manufacturing in Texas and the Coastal Zone IV-21 Projections of Dollar Value of Major Tertiary Activity Earnings in the Coastal Zone IV-22 Estimated and Projected Number of Out-of-State Tourists Visiting the Texas Coast 1964 to 1971 (Estimated) and 1971 to 2000 (Projected) IV-23 Estimated and Projected Expenditures of Out-of-State Visitors to the Texas Coast 1964-2000 IV-29 Projected Employment for Texas and the Coastal Zone 1960-2000 IV-30 Projected Employment by Broad Industrial Sector for Texas and the Coastal Zone 1960-2000 LIST OF TABLES Chapter I 1-4 Population of the Coastal Zone 1940 to 1970 1-7 Population of Coastal Zone Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas 1940-1970 1-12 Value of all Crops and Livestock Sold in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1944-1970 1-14 Pounds and Value of Gulf Coast Catch of Finfish and Shellfish 1-15 Total Mineral Values in the Coastal Zone and Texas 1-17 Volume of Crude Oil Production in the Coastal Zone and Texas 1940-1969 1-18 Offshore Exploratory Drilling in Texas 1957-1968 1-19 Primary Industry Sector Earnings in the Coastal Zone 1940-1969 1-20 Value of Secondary Sector Earnings in the Texas Coastal Zone 1940-1969 1-22 Value Added by Manufacture and Manufacturing Establishments in the Coastal Zone and Texas 1940-1967 1-24 Total Retail Sales Values and Expenditures on Food, Automobiles and General Merchandise in the Coastal Zone and Texas 1940-1970 1-25 Value of Retail Sales Estimates for the State and Coastal Zone 1940-1970 1-26 Value of Tertiary Sector Industry Earnings in the Coastal Zone 1940-1969 1-27 Dollar Value of Broad Industry Sector Earnings for the State and Coastal Zone 1940-1969 1-29 Employment Trends by Broad Industrial Sectors in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1948-1970 1-33 Employment by Broad Industrial Sector in the Coastal Zone State Planning Regions 1948 and 1970 1-35 Per Capita Income for the State and Coastal Zone Planning Regions 1940-1969 Chapter II 11-3 Region and Value of Texas Catch of Finfish and Shellfish 1969 and 1970 11-4 Region and Value of Texas Catch of Shrimp 1970 H-5 Estimated Crude Oil Reserves and Annual Oil Production for Texas 1940-1970 11-6 Maximum Daily Capacity of Crude Oil Refineries in the Coastal Zone as of December, 1970 Chapter II (cont'd) 11-8 Major Non-Fuel Minerals Found in the Coastal Zone and Approximate Market Value 1970 Chapter III 111-3 Urban-Rural Population Trends in Texas and the Coastal Zone 1940-1970 111-7 Per Capita Income in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Non-Metropolitan Areas of Coastal Zone State Planning Regions 1940 to 1969 III-10 Earnings by Broad Industrial Sector for Metropolitan (SMSA) and Non-Metropolitan Areas in the Coastal Zone 1940 to 1969 Chapter IV IV-25 Acres of Coastal Zone State Parks IV-26 Acres of National Recreational Sites in the Texas Coastal Zone IV-27 'T.-Oxas Gulf Coast Shoreline Inventory CHAPTER I H IS TO RY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 1. STUDY AREA The Coastal Zone of Texas studied in this report is composed of 36 counties located in five State Planning Regions adjacent to the Gulf Coast. These regions and counties are listed below and are shown in Figure 1: 1. Lower Rio Grande Valley: Cameron, Hidalgo, Wallacy 2. Coastal Bend: Aransas, Bee, Brooks, Duval, Kenedy, Kleberg, Live Oak, McMullen, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, Jim Wells 3. Golden Crescent: Calhoun, DeWitt, Goliad, Jackson, Lavaca, Victoria 4. Gulf Coast: Austin, Chamber, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomery, Walker, Waller, Wharton 5. South East Texas: Jefferson, Orange. Also referred to in this report are six Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas composed of 12 metropolitan counties. These SMSA's and their constituent counties are listed below and are shaded-in on Figure 1: 1. Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito: Cameron County 2. McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg:- Hidalgo County 3. Corpus Christi: Nueces and San Patricio Counties 4. Houston: Harris, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Liberty, and Montgomery Counties 5. Galveston-Texas City: Galveston County 6. Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange: Jefferson and Orange Counties. S OUTH EAST TEXAS t. V^C A . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . GULF DEWITT COAST I/ * JAC."OK mArAGOROA VICYOMA 60L iAD CAI.Mo v C GOLDEN M. MUIL N UV& DAX\ RE fuGI0 CRESCENT St R 6 COASTAL BEND K P- N@ r- Dy L*r-y LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY - - - - - -------- FIGURE I STUDY AREA Coastal Zone State Planning Regions and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas 1-2 11. POPULATION TRENDS Z9404970 The Coastal Zone of Texas, in 1970, had a net population of 3,502,546. Table I and Figure 2 show this to be a 127.6 percent increase over the 1940 population of 1,539,221 and an increase from 24.0 percent of the state's population in 1940 to 31.3 percent in 1970. As indicated in Figure 3, the rate of population change for the entire Coastal Zone appears to have peaked during the 1940's since the highest percentage, 39.3, was recorded in the 1950 census; this was nearly twice the growth rate of the state. Since 1950, this rate of population increase in the Coastal Zone has been higher than the rate of increase for the state. The Coastal Zone's rate of increase, however, has decreased from the 1950 peak to 21.4 percent in 1970, versus 16.9 percent for the state. A total of 24 of the 36 counties comprising the Coastal Zone of Texas showed net increases in population over the three decades from 1940 to 1970. However, this number dropped to 19 counties showing net population increases from 1960 to 1970. For the sake of analysis and further discussion, these 36 counties will be grouped into their designated state planning regions. The Lower Rio Grande Valley Planning Region increased from 204,831 persons enumerated in 1940 to 335,133 in 1970 to account for 9.6 percent of the current population of the Coastal Zone. This planning region's highest percentage change in population was recorded in the 1950 census as a 49.2 percent increase; however, it has since decreased to a 5.04 percent change recorded in 1970. Proceeding up the coast to the Coastal Bend State@Planning Region, a similar growth pattern is found. Comparatively high growth rates of 43.5 and 42.5 percent occurred in the 1930's and 1940's respectively. This increase, however, dropped to 3.8 percent from 1960 to 1970. The region's total population increased from 224,248 in 1940 to 420,360 in 1970 to comprise 12.0 percent of the Coastal Zone's current population. The Golden Crescent State Planning Region had a peak percentage increase of 17.8 recorded during the period from 1950 to 1960. This has since fallen off as with the previously mentioned regions to 2.1 percent. In 1940 the population was 100,590 and it has now increased to 126,004, making up 3.6 percent of the state's Coastal Zone population. The Gulf Coast Planning Region has consistently shown the most dynamic growth rate of all the planning regions in the Coastal Zone. Population increased from 846,841 in 1940 to 2,305,106 in 1970, to account for 65-.8 percent of the population of the Coastal Zone. This planning region alone has increased its proportion of the Coastal Zone population since 1950. It had a peak increase of 44.1 percent in 1960 which has since been reduced to 35.7 percent in 1970. However, this rate of change clearly stands out as substantially higher than that of any other Coastal Zone planning region. 1-3 TABLE 1 POPULATION OF THE COASTAL ZONE 1940 TO 1970 1940 19so 1960 1970 Perc@'n'-t Percent Percent Percent of of of of STATE Coastal Coastal Coastal Coastal PLANNING REGIONS TOTAL Zone TOTAL Zone TOTAL Zone TOTAL Zone Lower Rio Grande Valley 2040831 13.3 30S5700 14.3 3S2@922 12.2 3355133 9.6 Coastal Bend 2245248 14.6 319,S45 14.9 4045783 14.0 4205360 12.0 Golden Crescent 100,590 6.5 1045730 4.9 1231)393 4.3 126,004 3.6 Gulf Coast 846,841 55.0 151785475 SS.0 113698,748 S8.9 253051)106 6S.8 Southeast Texas 1625711 10.6 23S,)6SO 11.0 30610 16 10.6 315,943 9.0 Coastal Zone Totals 15S395221 100.0 25144,100 100.0 258855862 100.0 31)SO2,S46 100.0 State Totals 65414,824 757115194 9,5795677 115196,730 Coastal Zone as Percent of State 24.0 27.8 30.1 31.3 SOURCES: U. S. Census of Population 5 Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. 10 9 8 10 Ole .01 10, 7 loe POPULATION 6 (MILLIONS) 5 4 3 r 0 2 1940 1950 1960 1970 CENSUS YEARS POPULATION TRENDS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-1970 (ABSOLUTE NUMBERS) FIGURE 2 1-5 +40 +30 00" PERCENT +20 CHANGE +10 1940 1950 1960 1970 CENSUS YEARS POPULATION TRENDS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-1970 (PERCENT CHANGE) FIGURE 3 1-6 TABLE 2 POPULATION OF COASTAL ZONE STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS 1940-1970 1940 1950 1960 1970 Percent PeFe-ent Percent COASTAL ZONE Change Change Change SMSA's TOTAL TOTAL 1940-50 TOTAL 1950-60 TOTAL 1960-70 Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange 162,711 235,650 +44.8 306@016 +29.9 31S,943 + 3.2 Brownsville -Harlingen -San Benito 832202 125,170 +SO.4 151,098 +20.7 140,368 - 7.6 Corpus Christi 121,532 201,313 +6S.6 2663,594 +32.4 284,852 + 6.8 Galveston -Texas City 81,173 113,3066 +39.3 1401,364 +24.1 16911812 +21.0 Houston 636,589 93S,539 +47.0 1:1418,323 +Sl.6 1598S,031 +40.0 McAllen-Pharr -Edinburg 106,059 160@446 +Sl.3 1802904 +12.8 181,S3S + 0.3 TOTALS 1,191,266 1,771,184 +48.7 2,4632299 +39.1 31)077,521 +24.9 SMSA's as a Percent of Coastal Zone 77.4 82.6 8S.4 87.9 SOURCE: U. S. Census of Population, Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. The South East Texas State Planning Region shows a pattern of increase similar to the first three planning regions. Population increased from 162,711 in 1940 to 315,943 in 1970 to account for 9.0 percent of the population of the Coastal Zone. The greatest percentage increase in population occurred in this region during the 1940's and was recorded as 44.8 percent in 1950. However, it has since dropped to a 3.2 percent increase from 1960 to 1970. A study of the distribution of population over the last three decades clearly reveals the statistical shift to metropolitan areas. Table 2 shows the population change for each of the Standard Metro- politan Areas (SMSA) in the Coastal Zone. In 1940, 77.4 percent of the Coastal Zone's population inhabited those counties now comprising the six Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. This metropolitan pro- portion of the population increased to 82.6 percent in 1950, 85.4 percent in 1960, and 87.9 percent in 1970. The major concentration of urbanization has occurred in the Houston SMSA which in 1970 contained 56.7 percent of the population of the Coastal Zone with 1,985,031 inhabitants. As with most of Texas' SMSA's, Houston's highest percen- tage of population increase occurred in the 1950's, with a 51.6 percent increase recorded in the 1960 census. The rate then dropped in accord- ance with the overall rate of growth to 40.0 percent recorded in 1970. The Galveston-Texas City SMSA was the only other SMSA in the Coastal Zone to maintain a significantly high growth rate during the 1960's of 21.0 percent. Galveston-Texas City alone of the SMSA's in Texas ranging from 100,000 to 250,000 population had a net in-migration during the 1960's. The Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito SMSA increased typically from 1940 to 1960 from 83,202 to 151,098; however, it alone of the Coastal Zone SMSA's experienced a net decrease during the 1960-to-1970 decade of 7.6 percent to 140,368 inhabitants. Other SMSA's showing rapid growth during the last three decades include the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange SMSA which increased from 162,711 inhabitants in 1940 to 315,943 in 1970. The Corpus Christi SMSA similarly increased from 121,532 persons enumerated in 1940 to 284,832 in 1970. The McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg SMSA grew rapidly during the 1940's then tapered off to only a 0.3 percent recorded increase during the 1960's. Total population increased from 106,059 in 1940 to 181,535 in 1970. INDUSTRIAL GROWTH TRENDS One criterion of growth patterns in industry is an analysis of the historical shifts in emphasis between primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. The primary industries are those based on the extraction of natural resources such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, and mining. The secondary industries are those that "add value" to the natural resources through manufacturing, processing, and construction. The tertiary industries, often regarded as the key measure of material progress, are those that provide services to businessmen and consumers, i.e., in transportation, communication, wholesale-retail trade, finance, recreation activities, and the professional services. This section of the report will survey the historical trends and shifts in emphasis in these three broad sectors of industry in the 36- county Coastal Zone of Texas from 1940 to 1970. Where suitable information has been obtainable, whether in production quantities or dollar values, trends and percentages have been calculated with the basic assumption that past data will yield important clues to future growth patterns. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to exp.lain the trends in the broad industry sectors of the Coastal Zone in terms of their subcategories and relate them to the values found for the entire state. A. Primary industries AqM*cuZturaZ trends--An overview of the agricultural statistics in the decade from 1930 to 1940 shows the beginning of trends set in agriculture that are apparent today. In 1930, over half of the agri- cultural income of the state was primarily from the cotton harvest. By the end of the decade, approximately 20 percent of the agricultural income of the state was from the production of cotton. During the same period, approximately eight million acres of state farm land were reassigned primarily for the production of feed grains (mostly sorghums) and grazing. This shift in land use reflected the trend -toward a more diversified economy and more stable livestock industry, which was not as directly subject to the uncertainties of drought and periodic plagues of insects'. This trend was intensified by World War II, which created an abnormal demand for beef. Substantial improvement in Texas pastures and ranges was evident in the early 1940's, such as the construction of tanks for stock water, control of noxious shrubs, including mesquite and other kinds of underbrush, and tick eradication programs. Current trends in farm mechanization first appeared in 1940 as statistics for that year showed a drop in the number of farms from 495,489 in 1930 to 418,000. The increased mechanization was also reflected in a diversification of various crops within the state. Crops other than cotton which became economically significant were feed grains, rice, wheat, vegetables, and citrus fruits. 1-9 Irrigation made dramatic progress in the early 1940's. Compared with 843,839 acres irrigated in 1939, there was a 60.9 percent increase to 1,358,000 acres in 1943. The largest irrigated area was found in the coastal prairie region with some 396,000 acres to accommodate the developing rice-growing industry. Agricultural trends in the Coastal Zone during this period reflect its advantageous position with respect to irrigation facilities. For example, total agricultural income for the state in 1944 reached nearly $1 billion. This total income was evenly distributed between crops and livestock with total crop values of $563,077,000 and values of livestock and livestock products at $435,178,000. Values in the Coastal Zone, however, reflected a greater economic significance of crops sold than the value of livestock and livestock products. Approximately 17.5 percent of the $1 billion total agricultural income in 1944 was found to come from the Coastal Zone. This percentage did not change significantly from 1944 to 1970. However, the relative significance of the total values of crops plus the total values of live- stock in the Coastal Zone changed dynamically. As demonstrated by Figure 4 and-Table 3, the value of crops rose steadily from 20.1 percent of the state values in 1944 to 30.4 percent of state values in 1970. On the other hand, values of livestock and livestock products for the Coastal Zone decreased from 14.2 percent of state income in 1944 to 11.8 percent in 1970. The value of crops relative to the total agricultural receipts in the Coastal Zone increased from 64.5 percent in 1944 to 72.5 percent in 1964.- This represents an increasing economic importance of crops over that of livestock during the study period. This increased economic importance and diversification of crops is due primarily to three major factors: 1. The development of rice as a major export commodity requiring a high degree of mechanization and irrigation; 2. The increasing concentration of grain sorghum production in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and in the Corpus Christi hinterland; 3. The development of fresh produce and citrus fruits con- centrated in the southern portion of the Coastal Zone due to its favorable climate, its diversity of soils, and availability of water. More recent agricultural statistics show that in 1970, a total of $3,136,861,000 was received from agricultural productivity in the state. I-10 40 30 ye e PERCENT 20 Ives t 10 1940 19so 1960 1970 YEAR CASH RECEIPTS FOR CROPS AND LIVESTOCK IN THE COASTAL ZONE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL CASH RECEIPTS FOR THE STATE FIGURE 4 TABLE 3 VALUE OF ALL CROPS AND LIVESTOCK SOLD IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1944-1970 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1970 CROPS Coastal Zone $113,722,518 $ 247,549,313 $ 298,588,379 $ 265,395,751 $ 291,658,423 $ 367,873,300 Texas 563,077,610 1,134,458,150 1,087,553,504 1,137,385,495 111173,993,168 1,191,116,000 ro Percent of Texas 20.2 21.8 27.5 23.3 24.8 30.9 LIVESTOCK Coastal Zone $ 619454,547 $ 83,276,206 $ 77,510,446 $ 121,997,093 $ 111,000,237 $ 230,848,000 Texas 435,1785039 616,719,119 554,515,820 971,495,151 9739SS4,195 19945,74S,OOC Percent of Texas 14.1 13.S 14.0 12.6 11.4 11.9 SOURCE: Agricultural Census, U. S. Commerce Department, Washington, D. C.; and Texas County Statistics, Texas Department of Agriculture, Statistical Reporting Service; Austin, Texas. This does not include government payments but represents total cash receipts from both livestock and livestock products as well as crops. Of this, 19.1 percent or $598,721,300 represented the total cash receipts from agriculture in the Coastal Zone. Some 63 percent of this total represents the value of crops in the Coastal Zone, while the remaining 37 percent represents receipts from livestock and livestock products. Trends in commerciaZ fishiiq -The growth of the commercial fishing indusTryin Texas can be demonstrated by observing that a total annual catch of both finfish and shellfish rose from a total of 19,138,418 pounds in 1938, to a total of 156,300,000 pounds in 1969. In recent years, a steadily increasing trend in dollar values of the total commercial fish catch in the Texas Gulf Coast can be observed. Table 4 indicates a 57 percent increase in dollar value of commercial fish from $30,163,022 in 1963 to $47,286,329 in 1969. The overwhelming majority (greater than 90 percent) of this value is due to the shrimping industry. An accurate economic analysis of the fishing industry in general is complicated by the open access mobility, life cycle and seasonal characteristics of the resource. 1-13 TABLE 4 POUNDS AND VALUE OF GULF COAST CATCH OF FINFISH AND SHELLFISH* (MILLIONS) 1963 1965 1967 1969 POUNDS VALUE POUNDS VA-L-UE TOUNDS VMUTE POUNDS VAEU--E Finfish 90.5 $ 2.4 68.7 $ 2.5 29.0 $ 1.6 78.5 $ 2.3 Shellfish Shrimp 70.2 26.6 77.0 31.2 102.9 46.4 67.7 42.9 Oysters 2.6 0.9 4.8 1.5 3.6 1.6 3.8 1.5 Crabs (blue) 3.0 0.3 3.6 0.3 2.6 0.2 6.3 0.6 Total Shellfish 75.8 27.8 81.9 33.1 109.1 48.1 77.8 45.0 Grand Total 166.3 $30.2 154.2 $35.6 138.1 $49.7 156.3 $47.3 SOURCE: Texas Landings, Respective Years. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, T. S.. Department of the Interior, Washington, D. C. All numbers rounded. 1-14 Trends in rnning and mineraZs indust --Total mineral values as refle-c-teJ-1n Table 5.indicate that the Hin mass of the Coastal Zone traditionally supports about one-third of the total mineral values of the state. The mineral industry of the State of Texas has maintained its important position in the economy of the state from 1954 through 1969. By 1969, Texas ranked as the nation's foremost producer of petroleum, natural gas, natural gas liquids, magnesium metal, and produced significant quantities of cement, clays, gypsum, lignite, lime, salt, sand and gravel, stone and sulfur. In all, a total of 26 different commercial minerals have been developed throughout the state. The dollar value of minerals,including fuels, in the Coastal Zone, has increased 54.7 percent from $3,730,162,000 in 1954 to $5,769,970,000 in 1969. This is somewhat less than the 63 percent increase in the overall state values for the same period. TABLE 5 TOTAL MINERAL VALUES IN THE COASTAL ZONE AND TEXAS 1954-1969 VALUE FOR VALUE FOR YEAR COASTAL ZONE TEXAS PERCENT 1954 $1,167,754,196 $3,730,162,000 31.3 1960 1,205,645,616 4,134,901,000 29.2 1964 1,413,602,365 4,548,824,000 31.1 1969 1,906,001,000 5,769t970,000 33.0 SOURCE: Mineral Yearbooks, Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D. C. 1-15 As a sulfur producing area, the Gulf Coast rose to prominence early in the century when World War I impeded the import of Spanish sulfur. The major sulfur companies along the Gulf Coast.have grown to their present commanding position partly due to the expansion and exploration of the oil industry. It is largely in exploration for oil that salt domes with their yellow caps of sulfur have been found, and the intense search for petroleum along the Gulf Coast has resulted in a widespread and accurate geologic mapping of the Gulf Coast area that the sulfur industry has found beneficial to its development. Observation of the historical trends in crude oil production from the year 1940 to 1969, as reflected in Table 6, shows that the Coastal Zone land mass has supported a steady 28.5 percent of state volume of crude oil production. The 490,918,556 barrels produced in the Coastal Zone in 1940 increased to 31,714,064,496 in 1969. The first drilling for oil or gas in Texas' offshore waters began in 1937. The largest field found in state offshore waters was dis- covered in 1954 off Kleberg County. Though its discovery occurred 17 years after the drilling of the first Texas offshore well, it proved that commercial oil and gas deposits lay under the Gulf of Mexico and it is considered the start of the Texas offshore oil and gas develop- ment. Since that time, from one to four state lease sales have been made annually, and on those purchased leases, 21 fields of state acreage produce daily over 350 million cubic feet of natural gas and 25,000 barrels of oil. As seen from Table 7, the number of producing offshore oil wells has increased from one in 1957 to 22 in 1967 and decreased to 10 in 1968. While this volume cannot be considered a huge amount of production, it currently brings the state over $3 million a year. 1-16 TABLE 6 VOLUME OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN THE COASTAL ZONE AND TEXAS 1940-1969 BARRELS PRODUCED BARRELS PRODUCED YEAR IN COASTAL ZONE IN TEXAS PERCENT 1940 143,146,097 490,918,556 29.2 1947 2@980,118,325 105423@886@000 28..6 1949 3,509,484,902 125141,9215265 27.6 1954 5,118,202,249 17,672,870,822 28.9 1958 65047,174,194 21,422,8283807 28.2 1966 75618,565,900 28,403,016,481 26.8 1969 85411,6435516 31,714,064,496 26.S SOURCE: Railroad Commission of Texas, Annual Reports of the Oil and Gas Division, Austin, Texas; and Minerals Yearbook@L, U. S. Bureau of Mines, Department of the Interior, Washington, D. C. 1-17 TABLE 7 OFFSHORE EXPLORATORY DRILLING IN TEXAS 1957-1968 Producing Wells Dry Holes Total Wells Percent Year Number Footage Number Footage Number Footage Successful 1957 1 12 S 54 6 66 17 1958 3 25 11 84 14 109 21 1959 2 22 S 46 7 68 29 1960 0 0 10. 96 10 96 0 1961 3 37 14 148 17 18S 18 1962 N.A. N.A. 4 52 4 52 N.A. 1963 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1964 1 10 6 60 7 70 14 1965 4 41 24 231 28 272 14 1966 2 18 37 339 39 357 S .1967 22 200 39 34S 61 S45 36 1968 10 90 30 284 40 374 2S N. A. Not Available. SOURCE: American Association of Petroleum Geologists Drilling Statistics, Petroleum and Sulphur on the U. S. Continental Shelf. U. S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D. C. 1-18 During the early part of the study period, earnings from primary industry activities in the Coastal Zone were distributed evenly between farming and mining. However, as land use shifts occurred to accommodate the growing chemicals industry, mining became the dominant factor in primary sector activities. These trends are shown clearly in Table 8. It can be seen that farm earnings increased almost four-fold and earnings from mining activities increased by a factor 5.4 from 1940 to 1969. TABLE 8 PRIMARY INDUSTRY SECTOR EARNINGS' IN THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-1969 AGRICULTURAL PERCENT MINING PERCENT TOTAL YEAR (000) OF TOTAL (000) OF TOTAL (000) 1940 $ 64,460 47.37 $ 713,614 52.63 $1365074 1950 230,760 41.54 235,069 50.46 465,829 1959 212,228 26.76 580,980 73.24 793@208 1969 245,243 33.40 4895209 66.60 734,452 SOURCES: Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. 1-19 B. Secondary Industries As seen in Table 9, of the two major segments of secondary industry, manufacturing has represented an overwhelming contribution to the acti- vities of the Coastal Zone from 1940 to 1969. Texas manufacturi ,ng began with the processing of local raw materials. Cotton gins, cottonseed, oil mills, and meat packi.ng were based on the supply of cotton, and cattle in the early 1940's. Flour mills processed wheat and canning plants processed fruits and vegetables. Food processing has grown to be the largest industry in the state in employment and third in value added by manufacture. The largest and perhaps economically most significant industry in the Coastal Zone has been the refining of crude oil. In the early development of the Texas oil industry, refineries were distributed throughout the state, located largely in the midst of producing wells. By 11059, however, refineries in the Coastal Zone processed 80 percent of the petroleum produced in the state, which was a little more than the average for the previous decades. Current information indicates that Coastal Zone refineries have the capacity to produce almost 90 percent of the state's refined crude oil. TABLE 9 VALUE OF SECONDARY SECTOR EARNINGS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL ZONE 1940-1969 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TOTAL YEAR (000) (000) (000) 1940 $ 38,781 $ 1131693 $ 152,474 1950 217,295 507,594 724,889 1959 3005873 1,108,684 1,409,557 1969 877,900 29225,264 31,1039164 SOURCES: U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. 1-20 As the result of the many activities related to oil field equip- ment manufacturing, the refining business has traditionally been the number one ranked industry in the Coastal Zone with respect to the "value added" criteria. The industry ranks second only to the chemical industry in the number of employees, payroll, and value of products. The most recent major secondary activity based on the availability of local raw materials is the petrochemical industry. The demand for synthetic rubber created by World War II stimulated rapid expansion of this industry that had already begun to develop along the Texas Gulf Coast. Tremendous investments in petrochemical plants in the Coastal Zone were one of the most spectacular of the state economic expansions during the war and post-war period. Continuously expanding markets for these new products have resulted in a steadily increasing output of this industry. By 1963, the value added by manufacture of petrochemicals was the largest for any manufacturing group in the state. The develop- ment of petrochemical manufacturing has been based on the plentiful supply of oil and gas as a primary raw material, and in addition, supplies of other materials such as sulfur, salt, shell, and limestone. Since the products of these industries are bulky, location of the plants along the coast, where ocean shipping and intracoastal carriers are available, has been an important factor. Chemicals.and chemical products, the only industry in Texas to go over one billion dollars in annual net value of products during the 1950-1960 period, showed a net value of $1,063,163,000 according to the census of 1958. The industry is concentrated in the upper Coastal Bend, the Gulf Coast, and the South East Texas Planning Regions. The chief reason for the rapid development of the chemical industry in Texas has been the availability of natural gas, and the availability of carbon black, sulfur, salt, lime, and other minerals has also been encouraging to the establishment of chemical plants in the Coastal Zone. World War II resulted in the creation of the large aircraft manu- facturing industry in Texas and post-war developments have continued in an upward trend. These developments include the building of new assembly plants for automobiles and a growing shipbuilding industry. Texas has become important enough as a market area to warrant the building of major steel producing facilities in the state. Manufacturers indicate that the industry will. continue to expand. Other metals, particularly aluminum, may be expected to help the primary%metals classification to maintain a high rate of growth. One of the most significant features of the history of manufacturing in Texas is a shift toward the'fabrication of products for end use. The automobile and the electronics industries are two examples of this type of industry. The fabrication of final consumer and industrial goods is 1-21 one of the characteristics of a mature economy, whereas in the early stages of economic development the emphasis is placed on raw materials and then on processing through the first stages of their conversion to finished goods. Perhaps the most important indicator of trends in secondary industries is the "value added" by manufacture. As summarized in Table 10, it represents the value of goods less the cost of materials, supplies, fuels, utilities, and contract work, and plus the value of work-in- progress inventory and value added by the various merchandising activi- ties of manufacturing establishments. In 1940, the value added by manufacture was $448,523,000 throughout the state with over five thousand establishments engaged in manufacturing activities. Statistics of the United States Bureau of Census indicate that by 1967, Texas had 12,722 manufacturing establishments adding almost $11 billion to unprocessed products. Approximately 25 percent of those establishments (3,737) were located in the Coastal Zone and generated a $4,744,200,000 value added by manufacture or 43.4 percent of the state value for that year. TABLE 10 VALUE ADDED BY MANUFACTURE AND MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS IN THE COASTAL ZONE AND TEXAS 1940-1967 TEXAS COASTAL ZONE PERCENT PERCENT YEAR NUMBER VALUE ADDED NUMBER OF STATE VALUE ADDED OF STATE (000) (000) 1940 5,08S $ 488,523 1,371 27.0 $ 211,022 47.0 1947 71J128 1,501,050 1,847 25.9 7423,549 49.5 1954 8@890 35501,706 2,510 28.2 1,532,592 43.8 1967 12@722 1099229400 3,737 29.4 4,744,200 43.4 SOURCE: Texas Almanac, Various Years; Dallas Morning News, Dallas, Texas. 1-22 C. Tertiary Industries wholesaZe cznd RetciiZ Trcide--The decade of the 1940's saw an increase in retail esta-bTi's-Fm-ents throughout the state from 20,357 in 1940 to 90,674 in 1949 doing a business of approximately $6,518,877,000 covering the business calendar for 1948. There were 11,558 wholesale establishments by the end of the decade with a total for the year amounting to $8,197,169,000. Approximately one-third of this value was supported by the Coastal Zone. Of the 13 cl,assifications of retail trade as listed by the Bureau of Census, the food group led in Texas, both in number of stores and in total sales volume during the decade of the 1940's. The automotive group ranked second in expenditures and volume of sales. Third place in Texas consumer spending went to the lumber, building and hardware. group. Observation of Table 11 shows that by 1940 the Coastal Zone had generated just over $500 million or a little more than 27 percent of the total state cash receipts from retail sales. As in most industry sector categories, there was a very large increase in retail sales activities between 1940 and 1950: a 325 percent increase in the Coastal Zone as opposed to 311 percent for the state over the same period. This was primarily due to the increase in automotive sales following World War N. By 1960, the Coastal Zone retail sales amounted to 28.9 percent of total retail sales for the stateat $3,323,380,000 and statistics for that year showed a significant shift. The food sales category became the most important sector of retail sales as sales receipts in food markets increased to 31.75 percent of the total retail sales in the Coastal Zone. Sales of automotive supplies remained second with a total of $1,142,193,000 or 19 percent of the total retail sales in the zone. A historical overview of retail sales in the Coastal Zone, outlined in Table 12, shows a steady increase from 27 percent of total state receipts in 1940 to 31.2 percent in 1970. This is reflected by a con- current increase in the number of retail establishments in the study area which increased from 20,357 or 23 percent of the state total in 1940 to 33,493 or 29 percent of the state total in 1970. While there is a concentration of retail business in the cities that is greater than the concentration of population, there is an even greater concentration of wholesale business. The two largest wholesale centers, Dallas and Houston, currently do over one-half of the wholesale business of the state. This concentration of wholesale business is characteristic to all parts of the country, but to an even greater 1-23 TABLE 11 TOTAL RETAIL SALES VALUES AND EXPENDITURES ON FOOD, AUTOMOBILES AND GENERAL MERCHANDISE IN THE COASTAL ZONE AND TEXAS 1940-1970 TOTAL PERCENT PERCENT GENERAL PERCENT RETAIL OF AUTOMO- OF MERCHAN- OF SALES PERCENT FOOD TOTAL BILES TOTAL DISE TOTAL YEAR (000) CHANGE (000) SALES (000) SALES (000) SALES 1940 Coastal Zone $ 500,045 N.A. N.A. $ 405171 8.03 N.A. N.A. State 1,850,004 N.A. N.A. 1505,423 8.13 N.A. N.A. Percent of State Values 27.03 N.A. 26.70 N.A. N.A. 1950 Coastal Zone 2,128,485 +32S.7 $ 306,041 14,38 49S93S4 23.27 230,549 10.83 State 7,616,428 +311.7 1,627,946 21.37 139299397 2S.33 955,750 12.54 Percent of State Values 27.95 18.80 25.67 24.12 1960 Coastal Zone 35323,380 + S6.13 854,002 25.70 618,229 18.60 369,593 11.12 State 11,507,575 + 51.09 2,689,871 23.37 2@342,008 20.35 1,4872753 12.92 Percent of State Value 28.88 31.75 26.40 24.84 1970 Coastal Zone 65017,088 + 81.05 15430,556 23.77 1,142,193 18.98 1,094,279 18.19 State 19,279,604 + 67.54 4,26354Sl 22.11 3,780,75S 19.61 394085499 17.68 Percent of State Values 31.20 33.S5 30.21 32.10 SOURCE: Respective years, Sales Management, Survey of Buying Power, New York City, New York and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. TABLE 12 VALUE OF RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES FOR THE STATE AND COASTAL ZONE 1940-1970 COASTAL ZONE STATE PERCENTAGE RETAIL SALES RETAIL SALES OF YEAR (000) (000) STATE VALUE 1940 $ S001D045 $ 1,850,004 27.0 1950 2,128,485 7,616,428 27.9 1960 3,323,380 1l'jS07,S7S 28.9 1970 6,017,088 191279,604 31.2 SOURCE: Texas Almanac, Respective Years; Dallas Morning News, Dallas, Texas. degree in Texas because of the large volume of raw agricultural and mineral products that are handled. Due to the increased importance of raw mineral products and slightly greater population growth rates, a larger percentage of wholesale business as compared with the Dallas area has shifted to the Houston area in the latter part of the study period. In 1940, approximately 30 percent of the wholesale sales in Texas was found in the Coastal Zone and valued at $670,566,000. This business was generated by the 2,284 wholesale establishments in the Coastal Zone at that time. Values of wholesale sales in the study area had risen to $2.5 billion in 1947, which represented 30.6 percent of the state wholesale sales. In 1958, there were 4,524 establishments which accounted for $4.9 billion worth of wholesale business, or 34.7 percent of the total state wholesale sales for that year. 1-25 serv:ices--The history of the development of the service sector relafi-ve -to finance and trade activities in the Coastal Zone is summarized in Table 13. Observation shows a steady increase in service sector earnings from $78 million or just under 30 percent of state earnings in 1940 to $1.4 billion or about 38.5 percent of state earnings by 1969. While the service sector has traditionally ranked behind the wholesale and retail trade category in total earnings, it can be seen that it is the only major category that has shown relative growth over the study period. The trade and finance categories have declined relative to total tertiary earnings. TABLE 13 VALUE OF TERTIARY SECTOR INDUSTRY EARNINGS IN THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-1969 FINANCE PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT INSURANCE OF SERVICES OF TRADE OF TOTAL YEAR (000) TOTAL (000) TOTAL (000) TOTAL (000) 1940 $ 38,449 14.63 $ 785413 29.83 $ 146,032 55.55 $ 2625894 1950 122,231 13.09 286,3307 30.67 S24,907 S6.23 933544S 19S9 234,096 13.74 S75,309 33.76 894,949 S2.S1 1,704,3S4 1969 476,677 12.99 15412,210 38.48 1,781,198 48.S3 3,670!108S SOURCE: Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C. Table 14 summarizes some quantitative information relating broad industry sector earnings in the Coastal Zone to that of the state and showing percentage changes throughout the study period. Primary industry earnings in the Coastal Zone relative to the state increased at an average rate of about one percent per year from 1940 to 1959, and decreased at an average rate of about three-fourths of one percent from 1959 to 1969. Currently, primary industry earnings in the Coastal Zone amount to about 35 percent of overall state primary industry earnings. Secondary sector earnings in the study area remained at a relatively constant average of 40 percent of state earnings over the period from 1940 to 1969. The tertiary sector earnings has shown cyclic trends since 1940, showing a net decline by 1969 to just under 27 percent of total state values. 1-26 TABLE 14 DOLLAR VALUE OF BROAD INDUSTRY SECTOR EARNINGS FOR THE STATE AND COASTAL ZONE 1940-1969 PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT 1940 CHANGE* 1950 CHANGE 1959 CHANGE 1969 CHANGE (000) (1929-40) (000) (1940-50) (000) (1950-59) (000) (1965-69) PRIMARY INDUSTRY Coastal Zone $1375 76 + 6.70 $ 506,754 +269.1 $ 865,872 +70.87 8795223 1.S4 State 5S35439 -12.55 1,822,96S +229.4 21)0219039 +10.87 2,485,722 +14.92 Percent of State Value 24.80 27.80 42.84 35.37 SECONDARY INDUSTRY Coastal Zone 152,474 +39.21 7245889 +37S.42 1,409,SS7 +94.45 3,103,164 +S3.04 State 3585790 + 1.03 1,842,3400 +413.50 3,664,008 +98.87 8:@300,266 +60.19 Percent of State Value 42.50 39.34 38.47 37.39 TERTIARY INDUSTRY doastal zone 2632394 +28.84 933@445 +254.39 1,7041)3S4 +82.59 3,670IJ08S +Sl.82 State 850,459 + 3.22 3,0399884 +2S7.44 S,438,849 +78.92. 13'@645,377 +82.9S Percent of State Value 30.97 30.71 31.34 26.90 *Percent change from 1929 values. SOURCE: Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C. IV. EAPLOYMENT TRENDS Z948 TO Z970 Employment trends in the Coastal Zone discussed here are based on the earliest consistently collected data available in the County Business Pattern series of the United States Census Bureau. The data analyzed spans two eight-year periods--1948 to 1956 and 1956 to 1964, with a six-year span to the latest available data issued for 1970. Five counties additional to the 36 counties comprising the Coastal Zone study area are included due to the agglomeration of certain counties in the 1948 and 1956 collection of data by County Business Patterns. The boundaries of four of the five state planning regions to be discussed therefore required modification in order to maintain a consistent data base over the 22-year time period. The types of economic activity (industrial sectors) used in the study were classified as primary or resource extraction oriented, secondary or manufacturing oriented, and tertiary or services oriented. Only selected occupations were included at each level of activity. Thus, employment used in this study indicates only the proportions among the different activities and the change over time. They do not represent absolute total employment. The employment trends examined here are based on data for all private, non-farm activities and non- profit organizations reported under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act as included in County Business Patterns. It does not represent complete coverage of the Social Security program. Chief among the wage and salary workers absent from the available data are agriculture, domestic service, government, and self-employed workers. Under the major industrial activity heading of primary industries are included agricultural services, forestry, fisheries and mining. Secondary industries include contract construction and manufacturing. Under tertiary industries, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and other public utilities, finance, insurance, real estate, and services are included. Table 15 reveals the major employment trends by broad industrial sectors in Texas and in the Coastal Zone from 1948 to 1970. From this table, the following information can be obtained: 1. total number of employees for the State of Texas and for the Coastal Zone in each of the four years for which data was collected and the percentage changes; 2. the total number of employees for each of the major industrial sectors in the state and in the Coastal Zone for each year and the percentage changes; 3. the percent of the total labor force in the state and in the Coastal Zone made up by the respective number of employees in each major industrial sector for each year. 1-28 TABLE 15 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTORS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1948-1970 BROAD 1948 19S6 1964 1970 INDUSTRIAL COASTAL COASTATL COA@-TAL COASTAL SECTOR TEXAS ZONE TEXAS ZONE TEXAS ZONE TEXAS ZONE PRIMARY: Number 889143 23,S87 141.,667 439606 111,821 35,868 1185647 46,)S24 Percent Change -- -- +60.7 +84.9 -21.1 -17.7 + 6.1 +29.7 Percent of Labor Force 6.1 5.1 7.6 6.1 5.1 4.9 4.0 4.6 SECONDARY: Number 493D260 176,272 627,997 229,732 72SI1216 251@1082 15,004,432 343,104 Percent Change -- -- +27.3 +30.3 +15.5 + 9.3 +38.5 +36.7 UD Percent of Labor Force 33.9 38.1 33.S 36.9 33.0 34.4 33.7 33.9 TERTIARY: Number 864,198 260,799 1,077,413 343,376 11)3495130 433!1207 1,834598S 616,S12 Percent Change -- -- +24.7 +31.7 +25.2 +26.2 +36.0 +42.3 Percent of Labor Force 59.4 56.4 57.S SS.1 61.4 59.4 61.5 60.9 TOTAL:* Number 1$4545418 462,717 15874,253 623,031 2,197,331 729,392 22984,S36 1,012,090 Percent Change -- -- +28.9 +34.6 +17.2 +17.1 +35.8 +38.8 *Includes Unclassified Employment SOURCE: County Business Patterns, Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and the Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas ASM University, College Station, Texas. 1.4 10 1.2 000, 1.0 1000, '000, 0.8 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES co IV-, (MILLIONS) 0.6 0.4 bol:je Te coasta- zone Secondar 0.2 -.jex@!-s Coastal Zon( Primary 1948 1956 1964 1970 YEAR EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTORS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1948-1970 (ABSOLUTE NUMBERS) FIGURE 5 1-30 Among the major trends evident in Table 15 is the approximate doubling of total state employment with a fluctuatinq growth rate, highest in the 1964-1970 period. Similarly, the employment trends in the Coastal Zone follow the state wfth higher growth rates in the 1948-1956 and the 1964-1970 periods. Consequently, employment in the Coastal Zone more than doubled from 1948 to 1970. According to Figure 5, primary industrial activity, associated with resource extraction and composed of employment in agricultural services, forestry, fisheries and mining, appears to have progressed erratically during the stud'Y period with an increase from 1948 to 195 6,, followed by a decrease f-rom 1%6 to 1964 in both the state and in the Coastal Zone. In the 1964-1970 period, however, while the state experienced only a 6.1 percent increase, primary sector employment in the Coastal Zone increased by 29.7 percent. Therefore, while state primary employment increased by approximately one-third from 1948 to 1970, primary employment in the Coastal Zone nearly doubled. After 1956, however, the percentage of primary employment in the total labor force decreased from 7.6 in the state and 6.1 in the Coastal Zone to 4.0 and 4.6 percent respectively in 1970. The secondary industrial sector of contract construction and manufacturing shows more stable growth trends than the primary sector over the study period. The Coastal Zone led the state in growth of secondary industry employment only during the 1948 to 1956 period. However, both the state and the Coastal Zone approximately doubled the number of employees in the secondaiy sector from 1948 to 1970. At the state level, the secondary sector remained at approximately 33 percent of the state's total labor force over the entire 22-year study period, while in the Coastal Zone its contribution to total employment dropped from 38.1 percent in 1948 to 33.9 percent in 1970. Although the growth rates for the secondary sector in both the state and the Coastal Zone were high over the study period, they we're not high enough to increase the relative proportion of secondary employment in either area. The reduction in the relative proportion of the total labor force in both primary and secondary industrial activities is balanced by the growth of the labor force involved in tertiary industrial activities listed under wholesale and retail trade, transportation and other public utilities, finance, insurance, real estate, and services. State employment in the tertiary sector increased at an increasing rate over the study period to ultimately grow two and one half times by 1970. Employment in the tertiary industrial activities increased at an even higher rate in the Coastal Zone. However, as a proportion of the total labor force in each area, Coastal Zone tertiary employment of 60.9 percent was slightly below the state tertiary proportion of 61.5 percent, as it had been-Jor all preceding years in the study period. 1-31 While Coastal Zone primary industrial employment showed a major increase from 26.8 percent of the primary employment in the state in 1948 to 39.2 percent in 1970, Coastal Zone secondary employment decreased slightly from 35.7 percent to 34.2 percent. Employment in tertiary industrial activities in the Coastal Zone increased from 30.2 percent of the state's tertiary total in 1948 to 33'.6 percent in 1970. Since the greatest gains were made in the relatively smaller industrial activities with no relative gain in the percentage of secondary employment, total employment in the Coastal Zone increased by only 2.1 percent to 33.9 percent of the state's labor force in 1970. The majority of this increase was accounted for by growth of the tertiary sector in the Coastal Zone. Table 16 presents a geographic breakdown of employment by broad industrial sector in approximate Coastal Zone state planning regions from 1948 to 1970. Boundaries of four of the five planning regions are approximate due to the agglomeration of county data in 1948 and 1956. This table provides the following information: 1. the total number of employees in each approximate state planning region in the Coastal Zone in 1948 and in 1970 and the percentage of the Coastal Zone labor force comprised by each total; 2. the total number of employees in each major indus- trial sector for 1948 and 1970 and the percent of the Coastal Zone labor force comprised by each; 3. for each approximate planning region, the number of employees in each major industrial sector for 1948 and 1970 and the percentage of the individual region's labor force made up by each of the totals. The Lower Rio Grande Valley State Planning Region, not including Willacy County, showed the largest relative regional increase in employ- ment in primary activities from 1.5 to 4.4 percent of the region's labor force. Secondary sector employment, while increasing absolutely, showed a reduction of 9.4 percent in proportion to the total regional labor force. Tertiary industrial activity increased typically; however, this region's total labor force dropped from 6.4 percent of the Coastal Zone labor force in 1948 to 5.2 percent in 1970. The Coastal Bend State Planning Region, with the exception of Bee, Refugio, and Aransas Counties, and the addition of Willacy County, while gaining employment absolutely also showed a decrease in its contribution 1-32 TABLE 16 EMPLOYMENT BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN THE COASTAL ZONE STATE PLANNING REGIONS1 1948 AND 1970 PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT OF STATE OF LABOR OF LABOR OF LABOR 2 COASTAL ZONE PLANNING REGIONS YEAR PRIMARY FORCE SECONDARY FORCE TERTIARY FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE LOWER RIO GRANDE 1948 438 1.5 99271 31.3 19,724 66.5 295642 6.4 VALLEY 1970 22336 4.4 11,608 21.9 385378 72.3 53@077 S.2 COASTAL BEND 1948 45.102 8.8 10,976 23.5 31,386 67.2 465724 10.1 1970 75814 9.0 21,101 24.3 62,580 72.1 86,751 8.6 GOLDEN 1948 111226 7.1 4,345 25.1 111J602 67.1 17,3302 3.7 CRESCENT 1970 313206 8.7 12,115 32.8 21116S2 58.6 362973 3.7 GULF COAST 1948 165603 5.4 1155444 37.8 171X5 56.3 305,191 66.0 .1970 305628 4.1 254,276 34.4 450IJ822 61.0 739@221 73.0 SOUTHEAST 1948 19218 1.9 36,336 56.9 265162 41.0 63,854 13.8 TEXAS 1970 22S40 2.7 43,516 46.4 47,720 50.9 931,803 9.3 TOTAL 1948 235S87 5.1 176,372 38.1 2605699 56.3 4621)71 3 (COASTAL ZONE) 1970 46,S24 4.6 342,616 33.9 613169S 60.6 150125090 3 1Planning regions are approximate (see text) 2Includes unclassified employment 3Totals are relative proportions (see text) SOURCE: County Business Patterns 1948 and 1970, Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. to the total Coastal Zone labor force. While the primary and secondary sectors increased slightly in importance among the industrial activities of this region during the study period, the dominant tertiary sector showed the greatest contributional increase to the region's labor force. The Golden Crescent State Planning Region, with the addition of Bee, Refugio, Aransas, Gonzales, and Carnes Counties, was the only region to maintain its relative proportion of the Coastal Zone labor force from 1948 to 1970. This maintenance of proportional contribution can be accounted for by above average growth in this region's secondary industrial sector, along with the second highest proportional increase among zone regions in tertiary sector employment. The Gulf Coast State Planning Region, with the addition of Grimes, Houston, and Madison Counties, was the only region to increase its con- tribution to the Coastal Zone labor force over the study period. Its already'dominant proportion, 66.0 percent, of the Coastal Zone labor force in 1948 was increased to 73.0 percent in 1970. Although increasing primary industrial employment absolutely by nearly doubling in size, the Gulf Coast was the only planning region in the Coastal Zone to reduce the importance of primary activities within its own regional labor force. Secondary sector employment, although more than doubling in absolute size, also was reduced in relative importance by tertiary sector growth. Tertiary industrial employment increased by more than two and one-half times and rose by 5.3 percent to 61.0 percent of the region's labor force. The South East Texas State Planning Region reduced its contribution to the Coastal Zone labor force from 13.8 percent in 1948 to 9.3 percent in 1970. This reduction may be attributed partially to the 10.5 percent drop in the importance of secondary sector activity withir the region, the largest of such decreases in all the Coastal Zone planning regions. Partially offsetting this decrease, however, was the largest regional increase in the importance of tertiary industrial activity. Primary activity within the region gained slightly in importance; however, the absolute figures were relatively small. V. INCOME TRENDS--Z940 TO 1969 As can be interpreted from Table 17, per capita personal income for the entire geographical area of the Coastal Zone has increasingly fallen behind the average per capita income for the state. This trend at one time may have been partially accounted for by higher population growth rates in the Coastal Zone, but rather it now appears to have continued more rapidly since 1950, when urbanization and industrializa- tion at the state level began to match or exceed development in the Coastal Zone. While per capita income for the state increased from 1-34 $366 in 1940 to $3,064 in 1969, the Coastal Zone increased from a leading $403 per capita to a significantly lesser figure of $2,783 during the same time. On a proportional population basis, however most inhabitants of the Coastal Zone may actually be receiving equal or higher incomes since nearly 75 percent of the zone's population in 1969 lived in planning regions which nearly equaled or exceeded the state in average per capita income. TABLE 17 PER CAPITA INCOME FOR THE STATE AND COASTAL ZONE PLANNING REGIONS 1940-1969 STATE PLANNING REGIONS 1940 1950 19S9 1969 Lower Rio Grande Valley $259 $ 8S7 $19183 $2,00S Coastal Bend 379 1,192 1,725 2,818 Golden Crescent 291 1,052 15328 2,421 Gulf Coast 483 1,,362 11)879 23,975 South East Texas 586 1,449 213094 3,571 Coastal Zone $403 $1$216 $15689 $2,783 State $366 $1.,233 $15728 $3,3064 SOURCES: Office of Business Economics, 1J. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 1-35 The Lower Rio Grande Valley State Planning Region shows the lowest per capita income level of all the Coastal Zone planning regions.for each census year ranging from only $259 in 1940 to $2,005 in 1969. Although this region maintained a similar growth trend in per capita income and grew relatively well during the 1960's, it still achieved only two-thirds of the state average per capita income in 1969. The low personal income levels of this planning region may be partially attributed to the large proportion of rural i nhabitants and the seasonal nature of agricultural employment in the valley area. The Coastal Bend State Planning Region shows per capita income growth consistent with the Coastal Zone average, ranging from $379 in 1940 to $2,818 in 1969. However, these averages have also fallen below state averages in recent years. The growth trend in per capita income in this region is stimulated chiefly by employment in the Corpus Christi SMSA while simultaneously being counter-balanced by its large proportion of rural inhabitants with lower earning capabilities. The Golden Crescent State Planning Region had an average per capita income of $291 in 1940, which increased to $2,421 in 1969. This range of income growth was well below state and Coastal Zone averages, even though the slow growth of the 1950's was greatly made up for by growth in the 1960's. The non-metropolitan nature of this planning region, also the smallest in population size in the Coastal Zone, is a factor in the lower than average income earning capacities of rural inhabitants. The Gulf Coast State Planning Region, while ahead of both state and Coastal Zone average per capita incomes for all years except 1969 when it fell below the state average, ranged from $483 in 1940 to $2,975 in 1969. This region may now be feeling the effects of the lower incomes of a proportionally small rural population and movement of rural migrants to urban areas, since more than half of the wages and salaries paid in the Coastal Zone in 1969 were paid within the Houston SMSA. Highest of all the Coastal Zone planning regions in per capita income for every year recorded was the South East Texas State Planning Region, in which incomes ranged from $586 in 1940 to $3,571 in 1969. Such high per capita incomes may be accounted for by the population density of this region and by the fact that its boundaries are contigu- ous with the heavily industrialized Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange SMSA. VI. SUAMRY The Coastal Zone of Texas has experienced a higher rate of popula- tion growth over the study period than the state. Within the study area the most significant proportion of growth has taken place in the 1-36" Houston SMSA centered in the Gulf Coast State Planning Region. However, the general shift of population to the metropolitan areas of the Coastal Zone has continued at a decreasing rate since the decade of the 1950's. During the decade of the 1960's two of the six SMSA's--Houston and Galveston-Texas City--maintained relatively high rates of growth. In general, the decreasing rate of increase in SMSA populations is a reflection'of a larger reduction in population growth rates for the Coastal Zone of Texas since the 1940's and 1950's. The concentration of population in metropolitan areas of the Coastal Zone has limited the income earning ability of a growing proportion of the zone's rural inhabitants as well as that of unskilled urban migrants and minority group members. This is a controbuting factor to the relatively slower growth of per capita income in the study area as compared with the state. When plotted as a percentage of total industrial earnings in the Coastal Zone, as shown in Figure 6, primary sector earnings have been the least significant and have experienced a relative decrease over the study period. However, while primary industry earnings have decreased from about 25 percent in 1940 to just over 11 percent in 1970, secondary industry earnings have grown from 28 percent to 42 percent over the same period. Tertiary industry earnings have remained relatively constant showing slight increases from 42 to 47 percent during the study period. No definite trends in broad industry sector earnings can be esta- blished by the quantitative comparisons of Coastal Zone and state values as were shown in Table 14. Employment figures, however, indicate that growth in the study area has been comparable to that of the state in both the secondary and tertiary industries. Employment in secondary sector activities, while maintaining importance in overall state acti- vities, shows a reduced contribution in the Coastal Zone in the latter part of the study period at the expense of a shift toward tertiary industry employment. Employment in primary industry activities in the study area has risen significantly in proportion to the state. 1-37 50 40 30 PERCENT OF EARNINGS p rn a.V 20 10 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEAR EARNINGS BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTORS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL EARNINGS 1940-1970 FIGURE 6 1-38 .CHAPTER 11 CURRENT RESOURCES I. RENEWABLE RESOURCES A ' ZturaZ r(is6urdes--As mentioned earlier, current agricultural gmcu statistics show that of tFi-e $3.14 billion in cash receipts for crops and livestock throughout the state in 1970, the Coastal Zone values amounted to almost $600 million or just over 19 percent. Furthermore, cash receipts for crop values in the study area reached almost $368 million in 1970 and amounted to just under 31 percent of state values. In terms of production quantities the most significant crops produced in the study area are the various truck crops or vegetables for marketing and processing. The combined production for the Coastal Zone in 1970 amounted to about 11 million pounds with the major portion found in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Combined vegetable production in the'study area represented some 39 percent of the state production of vegetables. The economically most important grains produced are the various sorghums used for feed stock. A total of 77,205,600 bushels of grain ,sorghum was harvested from 1,416,100 acres in the Coastal Zone in 1970,, wh ich represented 23.5 percent of the total state production. The largest production areas are centered in the Coastal Bend State Planning Region, primarily San Patricio and Nueces Counties with a total output of 25,325,803 bushels. Other important areas for sorghum production found in the Lower Rio Grande Valley are Hidalgo and Cameron Counties, together reporting 19,259,700 bushels. The Coastal Zone produced over 90 percent of the state output of rice with a total of 1,871,700,000 pounds in 1970. Most of the rice is located in the Gulf Coast planning region centered primarily in Wharton County, which currently produces about 317,600,000 pounds. Jefferson County in the South East Texas State Planning Region is another signi- ficant area for rice production with 229,600,000 pounds. The Coastal Zone is significant for the production of citrus fruits and nuts. The prime production area is located mostly in the Lower Rio Grande,Valley. Total combined output of fruits and nuts for this area is 34,boo,980 boxes as compared with approximately 40,000,000 boxes produced by the entire state. Whether considered in terms of present production ratios or future economic potential, livestock production in the Coastal Zone is not as economically significant in the study area as that of crops and citrus fruits. The total number of cattle in the state according to the 1970 Texas County Statistics of the United States Department of Agricul re @@_asl2,212,000. Only about 150,000 were found in the Coastal Zone, of which 76,000 were located in Austin and San Patricio Counties. Total cash receipts for livestock in the Coastal Zone by 1970 had, as men- tioned earlier, declined to 11.8 percent of the state values of live- stock sold, or $230,848,000. Preservation and future intensification of production of these agricultural resources will depend largely on the results of the many research efforts now under way. Perhaps the most promising aspect of agricultural research may be found in aerial surveying to determine irrigation and fertilization needs. Aerial photography and remote sensing scanners currently are being considered to reflect the color and temperature of fields to determine various conditions of crops and changes in plant metabolism. CommerciaZ 4-&:shina resources--The total values of the commercial shell and finfish catch in-T9-/-Oamounted to more than $53.4 million. Some 95 percent of this total was due to the shellfish catch which was valued at over $51 million. As seen from Table 18, the largest shellfish catch was located in the Galveston and Trinity bay areas and valued at nearly $4 million. The total values of the shrimp catch for the Texas Gulf Coast in 1970 shown in Table 19 represented over 90 percent of the total value of the overall commercial fish catch at $48,613,510. The major source of supply, other than the Gulf waters, is found in the Galveston and Trinity bay areas where 5,625,500 pounds of fish caught were valued at nearly $2 million. Preservation and intensification of production by the various research fisheries are of utmost importance as reflected by the various research activities. It is generally recognized that great potential lies in mariculture research programs. Emphasis has been placed on shrimp culture because it holds the highest expectations relative to commercial production and economic gain. Research activities have focused on the necessity to identify factors causing mortality, and develop suitable techniques for low-cost harvesting from both natural and reservoir ponds. 11-2 TABLE 18 REGION AND VALUE OF TEXAS CATCH OF FINFISH AND SHELLFISH 1969 AND 1970 FINFISH SHELLFISH REGION 1969 1970 1969 197@ Gulf of Mexico $1,694,449 $1,428,133 $39-32SS,445 $4459245316 Sabine Lake 2,14S 100 117,255 731JO16 Galveston and Trinity Bays 49,120 44,3019 3@441,864 359192976 Matagorda, East Matagorda and Lavaca Bays 721)090 791J664 8935@793 9941)811 San Antonio, Mesquite, Espiritu Santo Bays and Green..Lake 19,434 41,485 647,39S 554,3875 Aransas and Copano Bays 87,976 795144 438,666 602581S Corpus Christi and I @Nueces Bays 17,859 231>043 1S7,235 9111872 Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre 145,889 1885675 S65823 425 Central and Lower I Laguna Madre 188,995 196,414 S95 1@832 TOTAL $2,277,957 $2,080,677 $45,009,071 $512,1635938 SOURCE: Texas Landings, Respective years, "Fisheries of Texas," Respective years, National Marine Fisheries Service, U. S. Department of Commerce, Galveston, Texas, and Texas Parks and Wildlife Services, Austin, Texas. IT-3 II. NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES Mineral FueZs--The total value of Texas minerals in 1970 reached a new hi"_gF_a_t_T6_,34l,76l,000 which compared with $5,769,970,000 in 1969. The most recent statistics released by the Interior Department's Bureau of Mines shows that Texas heads the nation in total mineral values in 1971 with a record $6,639 billion. The Coastal Zone provides for about one-third of this or $2.2 billion. Some 1.22 billion barrels of crude oil were produced statewide during 1971 and valued at over $4.3 billion. The study area contributed approximately $1 billion of the total state value of raw crude oil. During 1970, statewide gas production amounted to about 8.34 trillion cubic feet at standard pressure and temperature with a total value of over $1.2 billion. Mineral fuels heavily dominate the Texas mineral industry in the state and Coastal Zone accounting for 93 percent of the total value of Texas minerals. TABLE 19 REGION AND VALUE OF TEXAS CATCH OF SHRIMP 1970 REGION POUNDS VALUE Gulf of Mexico 77,698,400 $441.X29208 Sabine-Lake 24,800 9,018 Galveston and Trinity Bays S,62S,S00 1,974,357 Matagorda, East Mata- gorda, Lavaca Bays 1,997,500 7L@05792 San Antonio, Mesquite, Espiritu Santo Bays, and Green Lake 11306,800 405,3846 Aransas and Copano Bays 15327,000 4691)417 Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays 3455700 915872 TOTAL 88,3255700 $485613,510 SOURCE: Texds Landings, Respective years, "Fisheries of Texas," Respective years, National Marine Fisheries Service, U. S. Department of Commerce, Galveston, Texas, and Texas*Parks and Wildlife Service, Austin, Texas. 11-4 Approximately 30 percent of the increase in United States produc- tion of oil from 1954 to 1966 was produced from wells in the Gulf of Mexico. Annual Gulf of Mexico crude oil production has increased steadily from less than one percent of the national total in 1954 to more than eight percent in 1967. Currently, Texas accounts for more than 30 percent of the annual total domestic crude oil production. More than 40 percent of the nation's natural gas reserves are located on the Texas Gulf Coast. However, the state's share of reserves and national output has declined over the past 20 years in relation to the national total. This fact has prompted many geologists to observe that Texas may be over its prime as a major fossil fuel producing state. The,extension of drilling technology to offshore oil provinces has perhaps been the greatest recent innovation in the industry. Maintenance of the state's reserves and capacity position relative to the nation will depend largely on the degree of productivity yielded by offshore explora- tion. Table 20 shows a history of estimated crude oil reserves and annual production for the state from 1940 to 1970. The state's proven oil reserves, as estimated by the American Petroleum Institute, has declined from nearly 15 billion barrels in 1955 to just over 13 billion barrels by 1970. TABLE 20 ESTIMATED CRUDE OIL RESERVES AND ANNUAL OIL PRODUCTION FOR TEXAS 1940-1970 PROVEN RESERVES ANNUAL PRODUCTION BARRELS BARRELS YEAR (000) (000) 1940 9,768,371 4865662 1945 11,375,480 7515045 1950 13,5092732 8171J842 1955 141,982$003 11J0229480 1960 145,859$674 8925084 196S 145299,847 9321J810 1970 13,063,182 1,20711625 SOURCE: Annual Report, 1970, Oil and Gas Division, Railroad Commission of Texas, Austin, Texas. The Railroad Commission of Texas has determined that annual oil production in 1970 was just over 1.2 billion barrels. It is, therefore, apparent that imports of oil to Texas may be needed within the next decade to meet the problems of growing demand and depleting reserves. Modifications of allowable extraction policies and various incentive measures will determine the depletion rates of currently available fuel reserves. However, measures should be taken to expand future proven reserves specifically into the offshore areas of the Texas Gulf. As shown in Table 21, the Coastal Zone contains about 88 percent of the state's refining capacity at over 3.1 million barrels per day. The heaviest concentration of refineries is located in the South East Texas State Planning Region where the capacity is about 1.25 million barrels per day. TABLE 21 MAXIMUM DAILY CAPACITY OF CRUDE OIL REFINERIES IN THE COASTAL ZONE AS OF DECEMBER, 1970 PLANT LOCATION CAPACITY (BBLS) Port Arthur 811,200 Houston 67S,36S Beaumont 440,000 Texas City 4341)000 Corpus Christi 346,300 Baytown 34S,000 Port Neches 539000 LaBlanca 5,000 COASTAL ZONE TOTAL 39109,865 STATE TOTAL 3,529,570 SOURCE: Annual Reportq 1970, Oil and Gas Division, Railroad Commission of Texas, Austing Texas. 11-6 Non-42LeZ Mine2ttts--The important group of non-fuel minerals are those used as chemical raw materials. These support an extensive chemical industry located in the upper portion of the Coastal Zone. Included in this group are salt, sulfur, limestone and shell used for lime. Minor raw materials such as dolomite, salt cake, and natural sodium sulfate are also found. SaZt--Salt resources of Texas are virtually inexhaustible. Enormous deposits occur in the salt domes of the Texas Gulf Coastal Plains and along some of the bays and lagoons of the South Texas Gulf Coast. Texas is currently one of the leading salt producing states. Most of the salt is produced as brines from wells drilled into underground deposits. Recent brine production has been reported in Brazoria, Chambers, Duval, Fort Bent, Harris, and Jefferson Counties of the Coastal Zone. Most of the salt production goes into the chemical industries of the Gulf Coast for use as a basic raw material. SuZfur--Texas is one of the world's principal sulfur producing areas. Sulfur is the most valuable mineral produced in Texas exclusive of oil and gas. Production comes from two sources--it is mined from deposits of native sulfure and extracted.from natural gas. Native sulfur is found in large deposits at the top of the salt domes in the Coastal Zone of Texas. When obtained from underground deposits, it is known as frasch sulfur, named for the chemist who devised the method of drilling wells into the deposits. Native frasch sulfur is produced from Gulf Coast salt domes in Fort Bend, Jefferson, Liberty, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties. Lime--Lime in the Coastal Zone is produced from high purity limestone and primarily from shell dredged from coastal bays. Since limestone is notably lacking in the Coastal Zone, dredged reef shell is the primary source of lime for the region. Dredged shell also is used as the prin- cipal raw material for the coastal cement industry. Non-fuel minerals in general decreased 9.7 percent in value from 1969 to 1970, primarily due to the declines in value for cement, stone, sulfur,, sane and gravel. Table 22 summarizes the non-fuel minerals abundant in the Coastal Zone with total state values for 1970. 11-7 TABLE 22 MAJOR NON-FUEL MINERALS FOUND IN THE COASTAL ZONE AND APPROXIMATE MARKET VALUE 1970 MINERAL VALUE Cement $1265729,000 Stone 64,4225000 Sulphur S3,208,000 Salt 47,620,000 Sand and Gravel 38,667,000 Lime 22,320,000 Clay 71>7591)000 Gypsum 4,599,000 SOURCE: U. S. Bureau of Mines, Murphy E. Hawking, Liaison Officer, Austin, Texas. Water Resourdes--One of the principal factors in the economic development of the Texas Coastal Zone is the location and acquisition of surface and ground water for agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses, and for low cost transportation. Water for agriculture comes from three sources: rainfall, streams, and wells. Currently, almost all of the 417,039 acres of rice in Texas is grown in the Gulf Coast region between the Guadalupe and Sabine Rivers. Each acre requires from one and one half to four feet of water in addition to rainfall. About 40 percent is irri- gated by ground water and the remaining by surface water. Another intensively irrigated area is in the Lower Rio Grande Valley in Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy Counties where citrus fruits, vegetables, and cotton are irrigated with water from the Rio Grande River and from wells. Cotton and other crops are irrigated in places throughout the Coastal Zone but principally in the area between and including Fort Bend County and Northern Brooks County as well as the Lower Rio Grande Valley. 11-8 Along the Gulf Coast, wells are located to obtain moderate to large quantities of water from porous substrate. These formations consist of layers of sand and clay which constitute an extensive ground water reservoir in which water is usually confined by overlying beds of clay. The formations dip underground toward the Gulf and salt water is encountered at various depths below the freshwater sands. Maximum thickness of the freshwater sections ranges to about 3,200 feet. These sands furnish large quantities of water for rice fields and municipal and industrial uses in the Gulf Coast area. The latest reliable statistics gathered by the Texas Water Commission in 1963 shows that Texas Coastal Zone counties contained about 60 percent of the state's surface water used for both municipal and industrial purposes or just over 4.2 million acre feet. Some 429 thousand acre feet of ground water was extracted for industrial and municipal use the same year or approximately 37 percent of the total extracted for the state. The largest volum e of total surface and ground water in the Coastal Zone is consumed by industrial rather than municipal uses. For example, in 1963, of the total 4,634,821 acre feet of surface and ground water consumed in the Coastal Zone, only 389,894 acre feet supported municipal activities. The abundance of ground and surface water for industrial use has been a principal factor in the location of the oil refineries and petro- chemical plants on the Texas Gulf Coast. Other Texas industries that require large amounts of water are the paper mills in Harris and Jasper Counties, the metal refining industry in Harris County, aluminum plants in Calhoun and San Patricio Counties, and the magnesium plant in Brazoria County. The non-fuel minerals industry also requires large amounts of water for industrial use. The major requirements include the recovery of sulfur by the frasch method and processing salt from one of the many salt domes in the Gulf Coast Region. Precipitation is the source of all fresh ground water. Most precipitation on the land surface "runs off" or is consumed by evapora- tion or infiltrates into the pores of the soil and subsoil through the fractures and solution channels of the rocks to form zones of saturation. SUMMARY It is clear that the Coastal Zone of Texas contains renewable resources in more intense quantities than the rest of the state. The study area represents about one-eighth of the land mass of the state 11-9 yet yields almost 20 percent of the statewide cash receipts from marketed agricultural products. W 'hile the various agricultural com- modities currently outweigh the income from commercial fishing, the growth of this industry has shown great possibilities. The total value of the commercial fishing catch in the Texas Gulf amounted only to 1.68 percent of the combined income from renewable resource activities. However, this is based solely on a total market value of about $53 million and does not include the economic impact of this industry on related activities in the Coastal Zone. Nonrenewable resource development also is seen to be more intense in the Coastal Zone of Texas where the total mineral values represent one-third of overall state values. Generally obscured by the over- whelming mineral fuel values is a growi,ng non-fuel mineral industry providing non-metallic raw material inputs to support the construction industry. It is the interplay between the desire for preservation and intensification of renewable resources and demands for conservation and development of nonrenewable resources that provides the context for rational resource management. To this end estimates of future economic possibilities are discussed in Chapter IV. II-10 CHAPTER Ill U R B A N A N D RURAL CHANGES 1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS In delineating the relative changes occurring between urban and rural areas in the Coastal Zone, it is necessary to define the urban population as that comprised of all persons living in urbanized areas and in places of 2,500 inhabitants or more outside urbanized areas. Although urban areas have grown rapidly in Texas throughout the 20th century, a significant shift in population from rural to urban areas has taken place since 1940. This pattern has been demonstrated in a similar fashion in the Coastal Zone. The trend illustrated by Figure 7 indicates that the Coastal Zone has led the state in the proportion of total population classified as urban; however, since 1950 the difference between the two areas has decreased. Table 23 illustrates the urban-rural population trends from 1940 to 1970. From this table, the following information can be obtained: 1. The total urban and total rural populations of the Coastal Zone for each census year and the percent urban; 2. The percent urban and rural population of the state and the percent urban for each census year; 3. The urban and rural portions of the Coastal Zone as a percent of the urban and rural portions of the state for each year; 4. The urban and rural populations and the percent urban of each state planning region in the Coastal Zone for each census year. The urban population of the Coastal Zone in 1940 was 857,829, which comprised 29.5 percent of the state's total urban population. This figure rose to 2,946,723 or 33 percent of the state's urban population i.n 1970. The rural population of.the Coastal Zone dropped from 680,933 in 1940 to 558,163 in 1970. However, the rural proportion 90 80 0 60 PERCENT so URBAN 1.0e 40 30 20 10 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEAR POPULATION DISTRIBUTION TRENDS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1940- 1970 (PERCENT URBAN) "00 FIGURE 7 111-2 TABLE 23 URBAN-RURAL POPULATION TRENDS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-1970 STATE 1940 19SO 196D 1970 PLANNING PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT REGIONS URBAN RURAL URBAN URBAN RURAL URBAN URBAN RURAL URBAN URBAN RURAL URBAN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY 99,520 102,971 48.6 176,627 129,909 57.8 254,S93 97,493 72.1 251,313 86,160 7S.0 COASTAL BEND 106,817 117,421 47.6 221,875 97,670 69.4 309,067 95,716 76.4 341,820 78,540 81.3 GOLDEN CRESCENT 24,497 76,093 24,3 40,905 63,825 39.1 6S,383 58,010 53.0 72,S95 53,409 57.6 GULF COAST 514,322 334,410 60.7 904,598 279,262 76.7 1,433,967 264,781 84.4 2,001,456 303,650 86.8 SOUTH EAST TEXAS 112,673 SO,038 69.2 200,032 35,618 84.9 275,611 30,405 90.1 279,S39 .36,404 88.5 COASTAL ZONE 857,829 680,933 55.7 1,544,037 606,284 72.0 2,338,621 546,405 81.0 2,946,723 S58,163 84.1 STATE 2,911,389 3,503,435 45.4 4,612,666 3,098,528 59.8 7,187,470 2,392,207 7S.0 8,920,946 2,275,784 79.7 COASTAL ZONE AS A PERCENT or STATE 29.5 19.4 33.5 19.6 32.5 22.8 33.0 24.5 SOURCES: U. S. Census of Population, Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. of the state living in the Coastal Zone rose from 19.4 percent to 24.5 percent, hence indicating a lower tendency for rural people in the Coastal Zone, versus the state, to migrate to urban areas. This rising relative precentage of rural population also corresponds to the risin .g percentage of employment in primary or resource extraction activities in the Coastal Zone versus the state. The urban population of the Coastal Zone as a.percentage of -the urban population of the state appears to have.experienc ed a boost in the 1940's and.has remained stable through 1970. However, the Coastal Zone's proportion of the state's rural population has grown steadily since 1950. The Lower Rio Grande Valley State Planning Region grew from 48.6 percent urban in 1940 to 75.0 percent urban in 1970. During the last decade, however, it has lost population in-both the urban'and rural sectors. The Coastal Bend State Planning Region rose to 81.3 percent urban in 1970 from 47.6 percent in 1940. While population increased rapidly in the urban sector, the number of inhabitants in the rural sector has been steadily decreasing, however, at a slower rate. The Golden Crescent State Planning Region, which had only 24.3 percent of the population living in urban areas in 1940, rose to 57.6 percent urban in 1970, well below the state's 79.7 percent urban and the Coastal.Zone's 84.1 percent urban. The Gulf Coast State Planning Region, which presently contains 65.8 percent of the Coastal Zone's entire population, grew from 60.7 percent urban in 1940 to 86.8 percent urban in 1970. This planning region alone gained absolutely in rural inhabitants between 1960 and 1970; however, this did not offset the loss experienced between 1940 and 1960. The most urbanized of the zone's planning regions in 1940 was the South East Texas State Planning Region, which had 69.2 percent of the population,located in urban areas. This proportion rose to 90.1 per- cent in 1960, then dropped off to 88.5 percent in 1970; however, this region still maintained the highest percentage of urban population among the five state planning regions in the Coastal Zone. 11. INCOME'TRENDS Regarding geographic categories for comparing per capita income, metropolitan areas are defined as Standnprd Metropolitan Statistical Areas or the county or contiguous counties which contain a central city or cities with a minimum population of 50,000, together with 111-4 surrounding counties which are socially and economically integrated with the central city. Mon-metropolitan areas include all of those counties not included within standard metropolitan statistical areas. Figure 8 shows that per capita income trends in standard metro- politan statistical areas and in non-metropolitan areas of Texas and the Coastal Zone from 1940 to 1969 have followed a rather consistent 7 attern of increases. The most dramatic of these occurred in the 940's and again in the 1960's. State metropolitan per capita income has significantly increased its lead by 1970. During the 1960's, the state per capita income in non-metropolitan areas surpassed the per capita income in Coastal Zone metropolitan areas. Although Coastal Zone non-metropolitan per capita income has generally followed the previously-mentioned trends, it has increased much less in relation to per capita income in state non-metropolitan areas. The relative slowness of rural people to migrate to urban areas in the Coastal Zone relative to migration in the state as a whole, together with low rural earning power, may partially account for the slu.ggishness in the per capita income trend in Coastal Zone non-metropolitan areas. In Table 24, per capita income trends among the Coastal Zone state planning regions indicate that the Gulf Coast State Planning Region has led in the metropolitan category from 1940 to 1959, but lost this lead to the South East Texas State Planning Region in 1969. The Coastal Bend State Planning Region led in the non-metropolitan category in 1940; however, it relinquished this lead to the non-metropolitan sector of the Gulf Coast Planning Region in 1969. Two of the four planning regions with metropolitan categories, the Gulf Coast and South East Texas Regions, have led the state per capita income in metropolitan areas since 1940. All four of the Coastal Zone planning regions with non-metropolitan per capita income with the exception of the Coastal Bend State Planning Region, which surpassed the state average in 1940 and again in 1959. III. INDUSTRIAL EARNINGS Figure 9, illustrating earnings for metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of the Coastal Zone from 1940 to 1969, shows the dominance of metropolitan areas in the Coastal Zone in regard to total payments made to employees at their job location. The metropolitan areas of the Coastal Zone are composed of 12 counties totaling 11,978 square miles or 35.9 percent of the land area of the Coastal Zone. The non- metropolitan sector is composed of 24 counties totaling 21,320 square miles or 64.1 percent of the land area of the zone. The dynamic growth of earnings in metropolitan areas relative to the earnings achieved in non-metropolitan areas is a reflection more of the growth of population, industry and employment within the metropolitan areas rather than a 111-5 4000 Texas Metropolitan Texas Non-Met-ropolitan 3000 II Coastal Zone Metropolitan Coastal Zone Non-Metropolitan DOLLARS 2000 it0 1000 00, PItI 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEAR PER CAPITA INCOME TRENDS IN METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN AREAS OF TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-1969 (IN DOLLARS) FIGURE 8 111-6 TABLE 24 PER CAPITA INCOME IN STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS AND NON-METROPOLITAN AREAS. OF COASTAL ZONE STATE PLANNING REGIONS 1940 TO 1969 STATE 1940 1950 1959 1969 PLANNING NON- R-ON- NON-- NON- REGIONS SMSA SMSA SMSA SMSA SMSA SMSA SMSA SMSA LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY $288 $204 $ 824 $ 925 $11)106 $1@388 $1@952 $2,3114 COASTAL BEND 478 359 11332 1,164 1,713 1@728 213958 2@790 GOLDEN CRESCENT 291 15052 19328 2@421 GULF COAST 694 269 1,701 113001 215179 15539 34J391 25457 SOUTH EAST TEXAS 586 11,449 2,094 3,571 COASTAL ZONE SOS 309 1IJ305 1,078 113729 1,5S6 25869 21)572 STATE 495 352 15429 11)211 113847 1571S 35210 3!1048 SOURCES: Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. 111-7 9 8 7 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 2 0 0 No' I-t4etropo]jtall 1950 1960 19;0 YEAR TOTAL EARNINGS FOR METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN AREAS OF THE COASTAL ZONE 0 1940-1969 FIGURE 9 111-8 shift of population from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas, since 77 percent of the Coastal Zone population already inhabited the metro- politan areas in 1940 and this had increased by only slightly more than 10 percent by 1970. The earnings by broad industrial sector for metropolitan and non- metropolitan areas in Table 25 illustrate the following information: 1. The total earnings of workers in the Coastal Zone for each census year from 1940 to 1969 by metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas and the percentage of each; ' 2. Total farm earnings in the Coastal Zone for each year by metropolitan and non-metropolitan sectors and the percentage of each; 3. The total non-farm earnings of workers in the Coastal Zone for each year by metropolitan and non-metropolitan sectors and the percentage of each. Under "total earnings," the labor force in the Coastal Zone shows a total of $698 million in 1940 compared with $9.39 billion in 1969. Slightly more than $616 million or 88.2 percent of the 1940 total for the Coastal Zone was earned in standard metropolitan statistical areas. The metropolitan earnings rose to $8.55 billion in 1969, or 91.1 per- cent of the total earnings for the Coastal Zone. On the other hand, non-metropolitan areas, while increasing from $82 million in 1940 to $833 million in 1969, decreased in their proportional contribution to the Coastal Zone earnings from 11.8 percent in 1940 to 8.9 percent in 1969. Farm earnings, a relatively small proportion of the total earnings of the Coastal Zone, again illustrate the dominance of metropolitan areas, even in this most rural of industries. In 1940, metropolitan areas contributed 53.6 percent or $34.5 million of the Coastal Zone farm earnings. The metropolitan area proportional contribution dropped only slightly to 51.2 percent in 1969, or $125 million of the $245 million total farm earings. Over this same time period, the non- metropolitan areas correspondingly increased their farm earnings from $29.9 million to $119.8 million, thereby raising their proportional contribution by 2.4 percent 48.8 percent of the total farm earnings for the zone. The non-farm industrial sector, which contributes the bulk of the Coastal Zone earnings nearly quadrupled from $634 million in 1940 to $2.38 billion in 1950 and thenceforth nearly doubled by each census year until reaching $9.14 billion in 1969. As could be expected, TABLE 2S EARNINGS BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTOR FOR METROPOLITAN (SMSA) AND NON-METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE COASTAL ZONE 1940 TO 1969 (000) 1940 PERCENT 19so PERCENT 1959 PERCENT 1969 PERCENT TOTAL EARNINGS 6985S97 100.0 2,614,432 100.0 41686578S 100.0 91)392,952 100.0 Metropolitan 616,482 88.2 2,3031)893 88.1 4@176$800 89.1 8,559,5457 91.1 Non-Metropolitan Areas 82,3115 11.8 3101JS39 11.9 509,985 10.9 833@49S 8.9 C) FARM EARNINGS 64,460 100.0 230,3760 100.0 212IJ228 100.0 24S,3243 100.0 Metropolitan 34,520 S3.6. 1215S99 52.7 111,069 S2.3 125,447 S1.2 Non-Metropolitan Areas 29,940 46.4 1092161 47.3 101,159 47.7 119,796 48.8 NON-FARM EARNINGS 634,137 100.0 25383,672 100.0 4,474,SS7 100.0 95147@709 100.0 Metropolitan 5812962 91.8 21,1825294 91.6 45065,731 90.9 8$434,010 92.2 Non-Metropolitan Areas 52,175 8.2 201,378 8.4 4089826 9.1 713@699 7.8 SOURCES: Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C.; and Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. metropolitan areas contributed 91.8 percent of this total in 1940 and continued to provide the momentum to sustain its proportional share, which amounted to $8.4 billion or 92.2 percent of the nonw-farm earn- ings in 1969. The non-metropolitan areas contributed only 8.2 percent or $52.2 million in 1940, and while increasing to $713.7 million in 1969, fell slightly in percentage contribution to 7.8 percent of the total non-farm earnings. IV. LAND USE Population density in Coastal Zone urban areas has been decreasing due to the faster growth of the physical size of municipalities as com- pared to actual population growth. The liberal annexation powers granted to Texas cities by the state has encouraged this sprawling growth as can be seen for the coastal cities of Houston and Beaumont, which grew from 160.0 and 31.4 square miles respectively in 1950 to 447.0 and 71.7 square miles, respectively, in 1970. Conversion of rural or vacant land to urban uses chiefly for industrial and/or residential development can therefore be expected to take place more rapidly in the largest of the Coastal Zone's metropolitan areas. These areas have the greatest absolute annexation power and will provide the largest labor supplies and consumer markets necessary to attract such development in the immediate future. Sprawling, low-density growth, however, will be limited by the central city's ability to provide the essential utilities and services necessary for development once,diseconomies of scale become evident. Such diseconomies already exist to a certain extent and are reflected by higher land prices, increasing tax rates, parking problems, and traffic congestion in central city areas. Even though most new industries established in 1971 were located within SMSA's, many manu- facturing concerns joined the increasing tendency to locate outside central cities in the suburban fringe of metropolitan areas. Later in the century, rural areas and small cities located along major highways and transportation routes will become more attractive to industries requiring large land areas for their operations and room for expansion. Relatively lower land values and tax rates in these areas will spur such dispersions. However, by that time, labor supplies will be centralized within metropolitan areas and increased reverse commuting to hinterland areas for work will become necessary. The network of transportation facilities within the Coastal Zone will therefore have a great effect upon the development of land use patterns. If growth trends in industry and housing do shift from the suburbs, as is the present experience, to rural areas and outlying small towns, desertion of large central cities may take place, initially causing , central areas to become relatively economically depressed. Such a trend III-11 would release currently highly valued land for agglomerated redevelop- ment into integratively planned intensive uses which could take better advantage of their central location within the metropolitan areas. V. SUMMY As growth in the Coastal Zone population has occurred predominantly in the urban and metropolitan sectors of the region, so also has the per capita income. These income increases are a reflection of the 90 percent proportion of the total Coastal Zone earnings con.tri,buted by the workers in metropolitan areas. Thus, in 1969 only 35.9 percent of the land area of the entire Coastal Zone accounted for 87 percent of the total population and 91 percent.of the total earnings of the Coastal Zone labor force. The other 64.1 percent of the land area, which is non-metropolitan in nature, may therefore be viewed as a future resource for expansion and/or distribution of the population and for the disper- sion of industry to lure this growth. Such growth, however, cannot be expected until the latter part of the century, as there yet remains much developable land within current standard metropolitan statistical areas, particularly on the fringes. 111-12 CHAPTER IV FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS A N D E C 0 N 0 M I C P R 0 J E C T 10 N S 1. POPULATION A. Future Assuffptions Relative to the positive growth rate in state population through- out the 1940-1970 study period, the Coastal Zone has led the state, however, at a decreasing rate of increase since 1950. Although the state population will continue significant absolute growth during the 1970's, it is expected that the Coastal Zone will fall in line with the steadily declining state population growth rate. Trends toward smaller families and the increased ability and propensity to plan for the delay or spacing of children will be a major factor in the gradual population growth slow-down. Barring unforeseen mass i-n-mi- grations, this growth will not be distributed equally throughout the zone, but will be accounted for by a stable, high growth rate in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan region. The other state planning regions in the Coastal Zone will maintain relatively small population growth ra'tes with modest growth during the 1970's and 1980's. Major shifts in the location of industry at the state level are not expected to occur until perhaps near the end of the century when depletion of non-renewable resources may force an alteration in the current pattern and emerging trends of industrial and hence population distribution; such a redistri- bution would most probably be toward the Coastal Zone. Dramatic shifts of the Coastal Zone population from rural areas to metropolitan areas were basically completed during the late 1950's and early 1960's. Coastal Zone SMSA's are therefore not expected to increase in number or, with the exception of Houston and Galveston- Texas City, experience other than moderate incremental increases in population growth. IV-1 B. Prc?jectiona: , WO-2000 The Coastal Zone is expected to increase in population from 3,502,546 in 1970 to an estimated range between 5.1 mtllion and 6.05 million in the year 2000. Upper and lower limits of tKis range, as illustrated in Figure 10, are chiefly a variable of ferti'lity rates and if, as it has been assumed, family sizes will tend to decrease, the actual figure for 2000 should fall between the mi'dpoint and lower limits of this range. If, however, fertility rates do remain at present levels or tend to increase slightly, population sizes can be expected to fall within the upper limits of the projected range. The total fertility rate as defined by the Bureau of Census, is the number of births that 1,000 women would have in their lifetime if at each year of age they experienced the birth rates occurring in a specified calendar year. The number of children per family is here assumed to be closely, related to total fertility rates; and each woman and her children are assumed to make up a family unit. Fertility rates and therefore the number of children per family have been decreasing during the last decade from 3.69 children per family in the 1960 to 1964 period to 2.63 children per family in the 1965 to 1969 period. Estimates of 2.45 children per family in the year 2000, as is assumed in the lower limits of the projection range in Figure 12, do not seem inordinately low. Indeed, the Bureau of the Cens'us is currently making another series of state population projections assuming an even lower total fertility rate. The upper limits of the projection range are based on total fertility rates similar to those experienced during the 1963-1966 period, or approximately 3.10 children per family. Since Coastal Zone population 'growth rates are not expected to fall in line with the lower state population growth rates until the early 1980's, it is forecasted that more than one-third of the increase in the state's projected population range for 2000 of 15.30 million to 17.90 million will take place within the Coastal Zone. These rising figures, however, will be countered by a decline in the rates of popula- tion growth for both the state and the Coastal Zone as are reflected by the projected ranges of population change illustrated in Figure 11. Population growth rates for the state are expected to level off at cur- rent rates and eventually drop to a range of 12 to 15 percent per ten years when joined by the Coastal Zone growth rates in the latter part of the century., Again, the assumed absence of large in-migrations, together with slightly decreasing fertility rates, are predicted to be the chief causal factors in the projected steady decline in population growth rates. However, increased industrialization in the zone and in the state will assure steady absolute population growth. IV-2 18 17 16 is -J , X 14 13 12 11 10 POPULATION 9 (IN MILLIONS) 8 7 6 5 4 pp 3 2 1 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR - F-ppW[ p ,p PROJECTED POPULATION RANGES FOR TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-2000 (ABSOLUTE NUMBERS) FIGURE 10 IV-3 40 0 30 PERCENT 20 CHANGE .000". V 10 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 CENSUS YEARS PROJECTED POPULATION TRENDS IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1970-2000 PERCENT CHANGE) FIGURE 11 iv-4 5 Gulf Coast 4 3 POPULATION IN MILLIONS 2 Coastal Bend South East Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley Golden Crescent 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR MID-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR COASTAL ZONE STATE PLANNING REGIONS Imm-mmum-I- 1960-2000 FIGURE 12 IV-5 Figure 12 indicates the mid-range of the population projections for the five Coastal Zone state planning regions. Outstanding among these projections is the Gulf Coast 3tate Planning Region for which a population increase of nearly 2,000,000 is projected to take place between 1970 and the year 2000. Factors influencing this projection of singular outstanding growth within the Coastal Zone include the growth rate of this planning region over the past 30 years and the fact that it has been the only region to increase its percentage proportion of the zone's population since 1950. Consequently, more than 65 per- cent of the present Coastal Zone population currently reside within this region. Rapid industrialization and population growth in the Houston SMSA and the influence of this growth on the Galveston-Texas City SMSA will also continue to contribute heavily to the attraction of more industry and population. Of the other four state planning regions, only the Lower Rio Grande Valley region is expected to experience a moderate decrease in population before 1980 and is thereafter expected to level off and begin increasing before the end of the century. The Coastal Bend State Planning Region is expected to experience modest yet steady increases in population such that it will surpass the one-half million mark by the year 2000. The Corpus Christi SMSA will be the focus of population growth within this region. The already heavily industrialized South East Texas State Planning Region which currently has the highest population density in the Coastal Zone (243 persons per square mile), is predicted to experience only modest population growth before the end of the century. The Golden Crescent State Planning Region, which also is expected to experience only modest growth, exhibits greater future potential however, since it is now totally non-metropolitan and lies mid-way between the Houston and Corpus Christi SMSA's. Near the end of the century when industrial growth is predicted to extend beyond the metropolitan boundaries into the rural areas, the Golden Crescent region will most likely begin to experience rapid growth as a part of the Houston-Corpus Christi corridor. II. INDUSTRY A. Pr@matry Industnies As mentioned in Chapter I, primary industries are those based on natural resources of the earth such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and extraction activities such as mining for important minerals for use in the construction and petrochemical industries and the drilling for fuel and natural gas for use in production of fossil fuels. IV-6 Typically, an area will first experience the development of natural resources and most of the industrial activity involved with the production or preparation of crops and livestock, lumber, fish products and.mineral and fuel extraction. Regions dominated by primary industry employment are generally rural and endowed with relatively valuable natural resources. The. future industrial trend of the area depends on the future value of these resources, their supply, and the development of other industrial opportunities in the region. With respect to the trends and the growth of primary industries in the Coastal Zone both past and future, Figures 13 and 14 reflect the future economic importance of primary industries in the Coastal Zone relative to other economic sectors. Figure 13 shows that primary industries as measured by primary sector earnings will increase to a value of from $2 to $2.5 billion by the year 2000. More informative, however, are the economic projections indicated by Figure 14 depicting the percentage of primary industry earnings of total earnings by the industrial sector in the Coastal Zone. Projections to the year 2000 show that primary sector earnings will decline from its position at approximately 12 percent in 1970 to about 5 percent by the year 2000. As the industrial development of the Coastal Zone becomes more sophis- ticated, secondary industries begin developing due to the effects of vertical integration and the economies of scale in production and manufacturing systems. Further development of secondary industries causes demand for any additional supporting services of the tertiary industries and as a result, primary industries decline at the expense of both secondary and tertiary industries. The main factors, however, contributing to the steady increase in the value of primary sector earnings as reflected in Figure 13 are, of course, trends in agricul,tural and extraction activities. Agriculture in Texas has shown a steady increase in total cash receipts of approx- imately 1.5 percent per year. Since, on the average, there has been no significant change over the study period in the percentage of cash receipts in the Coastal Zone with respect to the state, it is assumed that the current 18.6 percent of total cash receipts from agriculture in the Coastal Zone will continue. It is thus estimated that total cash receipts from agriculture in the Coastal Zone will range from approximately $1 billion to $1.3 billion by the year 2000. Of this amount,,crop receipts will range from $750 to $900 million and receipts from livestock and livestock products will range from $300 to $400 -million. Figure 15 shows the percentage of cash receipts for crops and livestock in the Coastal Zone relative to the total cash receipts for the state. Projections to the year 2000 indicate that crop receipts will increase to a,range of 35 to 45 percent of total state receipts and livestock will decline from 10 to 7 percent of total agricultural IV-7 8 7 6 5 BILLIONS 4 OF DOLLARS 3 2 oe. 00. ox, 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR DOLLAR VALUE OF PRIMARY,, SECONDARY AND TERTIARY INDUSTRY SECTOR EARNINGS IN THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-2000 FIGURE 13 IV-8 so rrertia-r 40 30 PERCENT OF TOTAL EARNINGS 20 10 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR PROJECTED BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTOR EARNINGS OF THE COASTAL ZONE 1940-2000 IV-9 FIGURE 14 so 40 30 PERCENT OF STATE 20 es 0 10 A -77rr7" ... ... ... . .. .1940 19so 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR CASH RECEIPTS FOR CROPS AND LIVESTOCK IN THE COASTAL ZONE FIGURE 15 IV-10 receipts for the state. Hence, the Coastal Zone will become a slightly less important area in production of livestock and livestock products and the dollar value of crops sold in the Coastal Zone will increase to at least $750 million by the year 2000. The reason for the dynamic growth in crops in the Coastal Zone is due to several factors. It is projected that the production of grain sorghums will decrease statewide by the year 2000 due to the deoletion of the available irrigation water in the western portions of the state. Production of grain sorghum in the Coastal Zone, however, will increase with respect to the rest of the state as the high intensity production areas around Corpus Christi utilize better irrigation techniques in the Coastal Zone and greater availability and recharge of ground water. Rice is projected to decrease in economic value unless this is modified by success in consumer education practices. Vegetables are the major commodity affecting total crop receipts in the Coastal Zone. A dramatic 150 percent increase over 1967 values is projected for the year 2000. In order of economic importance, the vegetables produced in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the Coastal Bend State Planning Regions of the Coastal Zone are onions, carrots, lettuce, cantaloupes, potatoes, cabbage, and watermelons. The total statewide production of vegetables in 1967 was 23,73&,000 cwt valued at $124,414,000. Projections to 1980 made by the Bureau of Business Research in Austin indicate a statewide production of vegetables of 5.8 million pounds valued at $306 million. Since the Coastal Zone produces approximately 30 percent of the statewide production of vegetables, the economic value of these crops will increase proportionately. Approximately 98 percent of the total citrus fruit production in the state is produced in the Coastal Zone, specifically in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the lower portion of the Coastal Bend region. About 80 percent of the citrus fruit production is grapefruit. Estimated production in 1967 was 121,000 tons valued at $5,740,000. A-dramatic 500 percent increase in grapefruit production is projected to the year 2000 when the esti- mated yield will be 800,000 tons valued at $35,500,000. Cotton will continue to be the state's number one crop in economic value; however, no significant growth trends are observed in the per- centages of cotton produced in the Coastal Zone relative to that of the state. Agricultural statistics show that the Coastal Zone produces approximately 15 percent of the state's cotton with no significant relative changes over the study period. It is assumed that the Coastal Zone will share proportionately in the economic growth of cotton to the year 2000. IV-11 In general, Texas agriculture will evolve from a more extensive to a more intensive activity. For example, rather than exploitation and expansion, Texas agriculture will continue to trend toward more efficient use of existing acreage. This will be felt particularly in the Coastal Zone with its advantage in soil properties and water resources. Figure 16 projects the range of cash receipts for agricultural commodities in the Coastal Zone to the year 2000. Total cash receipts in the study area should range from 1 to 1.25 billion dollars. Of this total, the majority of receipts will be due to the growth in crop values which should range from $750 million to $900 million by the year 2000. As stated, livestock and related products will not show dramatic increases in the Coastal Zone. Projections indicate that receipts for livestock and related products will be valued at over $250 million by the year 2000. One of the major reasons for the projected absolute increase in primary industry sector earnings in the Coastal Zone is due to the growth in the mining of minerals indigenous to the Coastal Zone. Projections to the year 2000 shown in Figure 17 indicate the value of minerals produced in the Coastal Zone will range from $3.5 to $5 billion. In 1969 the values of minerals in the Coastal Zone was approximately one-third of that of the state. Projections show that this should increas to approximately 47.6 percent by the year 2000 as the increased production of offshore mineral activities is felt. Of the total value of minerals produced in the state, petroleum represents 63 percent, natural gas represents 20 percent, and non-fuel minerals resources such as sand and gravel, gypsum, sulfur, salt, and lime, yield the remaining 17 percent. Figure 18 projects the cumulative volume of crude oil production in the state and the Coastal Zone. By the year 2000 some 50 to 60 billion barrels of crude oil will have been extracted throughout the state. This, of course, is subject to the allowable extraction policy. Projections for the Coastal Zone show that the year 2000 will have an accumulative yield of 15 billion barrels. This is largely dependent on results of offshore technology and assumptions of increasing yields in the Gulf of Mexico. These projections could be modified by changes in allowable extraction policies determined by the estimated crude oil reserves for the state. Annual production rates for the state have shown steady increases in recent years to just over 1.2 billion barrels in 1970. Many variables are involved in projections of annual production but direct extrapolation indicates that annual production by the year 2000 should range from 1.5 to 2.0 billion barrels per year for the entire state. IV-12 1.25 JC bAL 0.75 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS j 0.50 ov cc 0.25 00"' bi-vest C -eceil ts 1940 19so 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR CASH RECEIPTS-FOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODMES I N THE COASTAL ZONE FIGURE 16 IV-13 10 9@ 8 7 6 BILLIONS s or DOLLARS 00 .............. 4 3 0 cge c,00 AC 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR DOLLAR VALUE or MINERALS PRODUCED IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE rIGURE 17 IV-14 70 60 50 40 BILLIONS OF BARRELS 30 20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (o 1940 1950 1960 19 0 1980 1990 2000 YEAR CUMULATIVE VOLUME OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE FIGURE 18 IV-15 Some estimates show oil production increasing at a rate of 0.5 percent per year, peaking in 1985 and subsequently falling off rapidly. This, again, will depend on incentive measures to increase the discovery rate of independent oil reserves as well as allowable extraction policies. Nevertheless, it now appears that with the energy demand increasing at its current rate, even the most optimistic projection of annual oil production indicates an increasing future dependence on imports. In general, it can be said that percentages of the Coastal Zone mineral activity relative to the state will increase as offshore mining activities become more productive. Also, the demand and subsequent value of cement, sand and gravel, and lime will increase in the Coastal Zone. This is due primarily to the positive atmosphere in the construc- tion industry created by the projected increase in population in the Coastal Zone. Furthermore, the inorganic chemical industry has and will gradually improve. The major portion of this industry which involves the extraction of sulfur, salt, reef shell and limestone, will continue to grow in the Coastal Zone. Since products of these industries are bulky, plant locations near the availability of water transportation has been and will continue to be an important factor. B. Secondm-nj Industries As stated previously, secondary industries consist of those involved in manufacturing, processing, and construction. They develop due to the economic linkage effects and economies of scale in production and manu- facturing. The rate of growth in secondary industries is generally a good measure of traditional industrial development. In order for the labor force to be heavily oriented toward secondary industries, the region must be generally a net exporter of manufactured goods and possess a reasonably viable service sector. As indicated previously in Figure 13, the value of secondary industry sector earnings in the Coastal Zone should range from $6.3 to $7.5 billion by the year 2000. Furthermore, Figure 14 indicates that secondary industries relative to total industrial sector earnings is projected to increase slightly from 43 percent to 45 percent. Figure 19 shows that the overwhelming majority of secondary sector earnings is due to manufacturing in the Coastal Zone. Projections indi- cate that earnings due to manufacturing will range from $3.9 to $4.8 billion by the year 2000. The latest reliable figures on value added statistics show the Coastal Zone manufacturers to have added $4,744,300,000 to their raw materials in 1967. This was 43.3 percent of the state value for that year. Increasing population and transportation facilities in the Coastal Zone could increase value added by manufacture in the IV-16 Coastal Zone to some 45 percent of the state values. If this trend holds, manufacturers in the Coastal Zone of Texas should add a total value of $21 billion to raw materials and semi-manufactures by the year 2000. The major manufacturing component in the Coastal Zone is oil refining activity. The maximum daily capacity of oil refineries for the state is 3,529,557 barrels per day. Of this, 3,209,165 barrels per day are produced in various Coastal Zone cities from Beaumont to Corpus Christi. Oil refining is the largest and economically the most significant industry based on local raw materials. Projections for the future of oil refining do not show a dynamic increase in economic importance. However, this could be modified by increased production of offshore oil activities. The rate of increase, however, may not be as great here as in some other sections of the nation because of the shift to new resources of crude supply. Alaska, for example, may become a major source for raw materials for the nation's refineries. The most recent major industry based on the local raw materials is the petrochemical industry developing rapidly in the Coastal Zone. Chemical manufacture, which accounts for a high proportion of value added in Texas, will continue to expand at a rapid rate. It is safe to say that this segment of manufacture will be the source of enormous new investment in the state during the next three decades. For example, the demand for ethylene is expected to double during the next ten years. New chemicals from hydrocarbon products will be developed. Examples of new products which can be expected on the market by 1980 include insecticides free of the residual effects produced by some now in use. Texas chemical factories will also expand to meet the demands of growing local and regional markets for plastics, polymers, fertilizers, and other such products. Texas' primary metals industry will expand output considerably over the projection period.- The manufacture of some types of steel products will be increased when United States Steel's new plant at Baytown begins operating at full capacity. To stay competitive, the primary metals industry must develop new high-strength products and find new ways to process low grade ones and scrap iron and increase plant efficiency. Newly developed products will likely include greatly improved container and packaging materials as well as other items which will be adapted as standard components for construction of homes and commercial and indus- trial buildings. Due primarily to population shifts, food processing will increase dramatically in the Coastal Zone throughout the projection period. This industry did not automate at the same time as did many other industries during the 1950's and 1960's, but it can be expected to apply many new mechanized production techniques during the next three decades. IV-17 12 10 9 8 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 4 3 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 @1990 2000 Y AR E 3@01 OF DOLLAR VALUE OF INDUSTRY SECTOR EARNINGS DUE TO MANUFACTURING IN TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE FIGURE 19 IV-18 The market for convenience foods.will grow not only because of popula- tion, but because Texans-with increased leisure time will spend more time away from home and will become more dependent on foods which are ready for the table. Revolutionary methods to improve freezing and dehydration of foods now in experimental stages will be adopted and substitutes for standard table items will be manufactured. Expanded processing of low-cost protein foods such as fish meal, can also be expected. Commercial catfish farming, which has developed rapidly in Texas and in the Southwest during the past few years, may supply the necessary raw materials. C. Tertiary Industries With the expansion of secondary industries comes the demand for many additional supporting services of the tertiary industries in the areas of transportation, communication, wholesale and retail trade, finance, recreational and professional services. The typical develop- ment process requires that the region be able to shift emphasis from one resource base to another. For example, the primary activities ard basically oriented toward the location of natural resource inputs whereas the secondary activities are more concerned with the factors of proximity to markets, raw materials, labor, semi-processed inputs, or other factors determining the profitable operation of their firms. Finally, the tertiary activities are mainly oriented toward population and consumer marketing centers. As indicated previously in Figure 13, tertiary sector earnings in the Coastal Zone will reach from $6.3 to $7.5 billion by the year 2000. Again, Figure 14 shows the future increase in importance of tertiary industries as a percentage of overall industrial sector earnings in the Coastal Zone. As projected, the various tertiary activities will yield one-half of all industrial sector earnings in the Coastal Zone by the year 2000. From Figure 20 it can be seen that wholesale-retail trade and services make up the major source of earnings relative to tertiary activities. Projections in wholesale and retail trade earnings in the Coastal Zone show that trade earnings will range from $3.3 billion to $4.4 billion by the year 2000. Projected earnings for services, on the other hand, will range from $2.6 billion to $3.8 billion. Recreation and Tourism--The present and future importance of recreation and tourism a ities in the Coastal Zone can be demonstrated by observation of the following known and projected trends: IV-19 1. Increase in population of the Coastal Zone between 1970 and 2000. 2. Greater concentration of population in the urban centers of the Coastal Zone. 3. Greater regional and national per capita and disposable income. 4. More leisure time and greater mobility. Recreation and tourism activities associated with the Texas Gulf Coast currently runs into billions of dollars annually and this consti- tutes a vital part of the economic base of virtually all urban centers as well as moderate sized communities located on or near the shoreline. Although relatively undeveloped in recreation and tourist activi- ties as compared with other coastal areas of the nation, the Texas coast receives heavy year-around use by persons engaged in a wide variety of leisure activities. Major centers for future growth potential in leisure activities in the Coastal Zone are located in Galveston Island, Freeport and Port Arthur, the Padre Island-Corpus Christi area, Port Aransas and Brownsville area. Tourism--The Texas Coast represents the only recreational coastline accessible t persons living in the great plains states. Approximately 11 percent of the six million out-of-state tourists visited the coastal areas of Texas in 1964. This increased to about 18 percent of 16.5 million visitors to the state in 1968 or roughly three million tourists. Figure 21 shows estimated and projected number of out-of-state tourists visiting the Texas coast from 1964 to the year 2000. Subject to variables of future disposable income and leisure time, it is esti- mated that the Texas coast will have 5 1/2 million out-of-state visitors during the year 2000. Of the tourist expenses outlined in Table 26, it is seen that over one-half of the tourist dollar is spend on food and lodging. According to the Travel and Information Division of the Texas Highway Department, some $183 million was spent in the Texas coastal area by out-of-state visitors in 1968. By the year 2000, this should increase to some $470 million as demonstrated in Figure 22. Recreation--The climate on the Texas coast, largely dominated by the warm moist-Gulf air, is generally favorable for year-around recrea- tional activities. It is expected that the recent implementation of the "Monday Holiday Act" which assured at least five non-religious IV-20 5.0 4.0 3.0 BILLIONS ........... OF DOLLARS . ......... 2.0 1.0 se 1940 i9so 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR PROJECTIONS OF DOLLAR VALUE OF MAJOR TERTIARY ACTIVITY EARNINGS IN THE COASTAL ZONE FIGURE 20 IV-21 5.6 5.4 S.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 E-4 4.0 3.8 E--l <El cn 3.6 c 3.4 El 3.2 c 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1964 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED NUMBER OF OUT-OF-STATF TOURISTS VISITING THE TEXAS COAST 1964 to 1971 (ESTIMATED) 1971 to 2000 (PROJECTED) FIGURE 21 IV-22 480 440 400 ol 360 320 MILLIONS 280 OF DOLLARS 240 4 200 7' 160 120 80 1964 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED EXPENDITURES OF OUT-OF-STATE VISITORS TO THE TEXAS COAST 1964-2000 FIGURE 22 IV-23 TABLE 26 EXPENSE DISTRIBUTION OF THE OUT-OF-STATE TOURIST DOLLAR (1971 visitors touring Texas by automobile only) EXPENSE ITEM TOURIST DOLLAR Auto 22@ Lodging 26@ Food 2S@ Entertainment ll@ Other 16@ SOURCE: Texas Visitor Industry 1971. Texas Highway Department, Travel and Information Division, Austin, Texas. long weekends for most working people, will increase the,demand for recreational activities. This consolidation of leisure time should ultimately enhance the quality of management of the various recreational sites along the coast. Demand factors influencing the future growth of recreation on the Texas coast are: 1. Time and distance to site, quality of highways and related information distribution centers. 2. Prices of recreational activities. 3. Recreation site management: control of congestion and cleanliness. 4. Mix of activities available at the site. 5. Aesthetic quality of the site itself. IV-24 TABLE 27 ACRES OF COASTAL ZONE STATE PARKS STATE PLANNING REGION PARK ACRES LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY Bentsen-Rio Grande 587 Brazos Island 217 Port Isabel 1 SUB TOTAL 805 COASTAL BEND Copano Bay Causeway 6 Goose Island 307 Lake Corpus Christi 14,3188 Lipantitlan 5 Tips 31 SUB TOTAL 14,543 GOLDEN CRESCENT Port Lavaca Causeway 2 SUB TOTAL 2 GULF COAST Galveston Island 1,922 Huntsville 21,122 San Jacinto Battleground 445 Stephen F. Austin 664 Varner-Hogg Plantation 66 Velasco 1,500 SUB TOTAL 65719 SOUTHEAST TEXAS ----- ----- COASTAL ZONE TOTAL 22,069 SOURCE: Texas Almanac, The Dallas Morning News, Dallas, Texas. Table 27 shows that the Coastal Zone has over 22,000 acres of state parks. The largest area is found in the Coastal Bend State Planning Region where Lake Corpus Christi is located. The Gulf Coast State Planning Region has the most state parks with six, totaling 6,719 acres. Table 28 indicates that the Coastal Zone contains 335,757 acres of national recreational sites. The largest is the recently established Padre Island National Seashore, totaling 134,000 acres. IV-25 TABLE-28 ACRES OF NATIONAL RECREATIONAL SITES IN THE TEXAS COASTAL ZONE SITE ACRES Anahuac National Wildlife Refuge 9IJ837 Aransas National Wildlife Refuge 475261 Laguna Atascosa National Wildlife Refuge 445700 Padre Island National Seashore 1341)000 Sam Houston National Forest 99,959 TOTAL.ACRES 33S,)7S7 SOURCES: Boykin, Rosemary E., Texas and the Gulf of Mexico, Center for Marine Resources, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, 1971; and The Dallas Morning News, Texas Almanac, Dallas, Texas. Among the various specific recreational activities, fishing, swimming, and boating are the most popular. The relatively placid waters of bays and open gulf and the gulf beaches are excellent for swimming and surfing activities. Table 29 inventories the more than 1,100 miles of Texas shoreline showing over 300 miles of beaches. Boating and fishing activities have and will continue to become extremely popular in the Gulf Coast. Currently there are over 100,000 pleasure craft registered in the Texas Coastal Zone. Since the future holds great promise for coastal boating activities, there will be a growing need for innovative marina management techniques to maintain reasonable standards of cleanliness and safety. IV-26 TABLE 29 TEXAS GULF COAST SHORELINE INVENTORY SHORELINE TYPE MILES Beach shoreline 301 Bluff Shore 421 Marsh Shore 3S9 Public Recreation Areas 5 Restricted Shore Areas 18 Total Shoreline 19104 SOURCES: Miloy, John and E. Anthony Copp, Economic Im2act Analysis of Texas Marine Resources and Industries, Texas A&M University, College Station, 1970; Industrial Economics Research Division, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. I-TI. EATLOYMENT A. Future Assurrptions While absolute growth in secondary and tertiary industrial employment is expected to be maintained at high levels in the Coastal Zone, the relative growth of such employment probably will taper off in the future or even stabilize, particularly in secondary activities where new technologies and automation will offset the need for increased labor to meet increasing demand. Primary sector employment, increasing in proportion to the state primary labor force, will be maintained within the Coastal Zone as renewable resources are more intensively utilized; however, gains may be offset as nonrenewable resources are depleted and extraction processes become more mechanized. The increasing availability of work opportunities in the Coastal Zone will stimulate moderate in-migration and simultaneously increase IV-27 market sizes, as will climatic attraction to the zone for retirement living. Education and training programs may also counter a moderate portion of the job losses due to automation. Geographically, the Gulf Coast State Planning Region will be outstanding in both total contribution to the Coastal Zone labor force and absolute growth in employment. The Houston-Galveston metro- politan area will no doubt assist in maintaining the region's employ- ment generating abilities. Dramatic growth in the relative contribu- tions of the other four Coastal Zone regional labor forces seems unlikely, even though their absolute growth in number of employees will continue as a function of population growth, currently stable primary activities and growth in tertiary industries. Income in the Coastal Zone, as in recent years, will lag behind state per capita income with regard to the entire zone. However, income in the major metropolitan areas, particularly in the Houston- Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur areas, will in all likelihood exceed state averages. As industries migrate outward from heavily urbanized metropolitan areas and as federal job training programs decrease the ranks of unskilled rural and minority labor, per capita income growth of small town and rural-oriented inhabitants is expected to increase during the 1980's. This eventual dispersion of industry throughout the Coastal Zone in the latter part of the century will assist the zone in meeting, and perhaps exceeding, state per capita income growth. B. Projections As employment in Texas is expected to increase from 4.5 million workers in 1970 to approximately 6.7 million in 2000, the Coastal Zone is projected to provide over one-third of the new jobs generated within the state. The work force in the Coastal Zone, estimated at 1.48 million in 1970, will rise to approximately 2.3 million in the year 2000. These projected employment trends for the state and the Coastal Zone are illustrated in Figure 23. At a more detailed level, Figure 24 illustrates the projected employment for the state and the Coastal Zone by economic industrial sector. Most projections show a slow-down in employment from the growth experienced during the 1960's and especially during the Viet Nam era. Primary industrial sector employment in agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and mining activities are projected to drop from approximately IV-28 7 100, lop .0e oe 5 oe 4 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES (MILLIONS) 3 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT*FOR TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1960-2000 FIGURE 23 110"'e IV-29 5 Texas Tertiary 4 /0, 100, loe f 3 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES (MILLIONS) oe Texas Secondary Coastal Zone Tertiary 1 "-,000 .0e Coastal Zone Secondary Texas Primary --iCoastal Zone Primary 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT BY BROAD INDUSTRIAL SECTOR FOR TEXAS AND THE COASTAL ZONE 1960-2000 FIGURE 24 IV-30 9.3 percent of the state's labor force in 1970, or 418,000 workers to 3 percent or approximately 200,000 in the year 2000. Simultaneously, primary employment in the Coastal Zone will drop from approximately 10 percent of the zone's labor force in 1970, or 156,000 workers to a more stable 4.5 percent or 104,000 workers in 2000. New technologies for the extraction of raw materials and increased mechanization and intensification of agricultural production along with the depletion of non-renewable resources leave little room for expansion in the primary sector and only hopes of stabilization toward the end of the century. Secondary industrial activity in the areas of construction and manufacturing will show*steady increases from the 1970 state estimate of 1,098,000 workers or 24.4 percent of the state's labor force to 28.9 percent or 1.94 million workers in the year 2000. The Coastal Zone will follow a similar, yet slightly more subdued, growth path as has been indicated by historic trends. Secondary Coastal Zone employ- ment, comprising approximately 24.5 percent of the zone's labor force or 361,000 workers in 1970, is expected to rise steadily, barring any major national economic setbacks, to 27.2 percent of the zone's labor force or approximately 630,000 by the end of the century. Tertiary industrial sector employment, comprised of jobs in the areas of trade, transportation and public utilities, finance, services, and public administration, are expected to increase incrementally with population growth at both the state and Coastal Zone levels. Therefore, while growth in the tertiary sector is expected to increase in propor- tion to the state's labor force by less than 2 percent between 1970 and 2000, the total number of workers in this sector is expected to increase from near 3.0 million to 4.58 million. Slightly more rapid growth in this sector may occur in the Coastal Zone as market sizes are projected to increase more rapidly in this area than in the rest of the state. While numbering just under 1.0 million, or 64.9 percent of the zone's labor force in 1970, tertiary workers will account for 68.3 per- cent of the jobs in the zone in the year 2000 and number in excess of 1.5 million. Employment in the Coastal Zone is projected to increase slightly ahead of state projections due to several factors, one of which is the relatively higher concentration of dense population growth in the northern part of the Coastal Zone. Other important resources of the zone contributing to the attraction of industry, and hence the genera- tion of jobs, will be its abilities to provide year-around shipping to both the East and West coasts via the warm Gulf, which also provides a recreational attraction, as well as a continuing supply of raw materials for manufacturing. IV-31 IV. SUMMRY The population of the Coastal Zone of Texas is expected to increase from 3.5 million to an estimated range of 5.1 to 6 million persons by the year 2000. Lower fertility rates and in-migration should hold growth to the lower limit of this range and the relatively high rate of population growth should decrease to a steady average of from 1.2 per- cent to 1.5 percent per year. The Houston-Galveston metropolitan area is expected to absorb the great majority of this growth. Employment in the study area estimated at 1.48 million workers in 1970, will increase to a total of 2.3 million by the year 2000. The primary industry activities will comprise about 4.5 percent of the projected total or about 104,000 workers. Although this proportion is higher than the primary sector contribution to employment on a state- wide basis, new technologies for resource extraction and the general depletion of non-renewable resources allow little hope for expansion of the work force associated with primary industries. Primary sector earnings in the study area are therefore projected to decrease from 12 percent in 1970 to an estimated 5 percent of the total broad industrial sector earnings by the year 2000. Absolute primary sector earnings, however, should increase from one to two billion dollars during the same period. Automation in secondary industries will lower the relative growth -rate of employment in this category; however, the absolute number of workers should increase from 361,000 in 1.970 to 630,000 by 2000. Furthermore, secondary industry earnings in the Coastal Zone will increase from $3 billion to just under $6 billion over the same period, even though as a percent of total industrial activity there should be little, if any, increase. By contrast, tertiary industry employment will increase incremen- tally with population to account for 68.3 percent of 1.5 million of the jobs in the Coastal Zone by 2000. Moreover, one-half of the total industrial sector earnings should be due to tertiary activities and will represent an estimated $7 billion. Since tertiary activities are consumer oriented, the more densely populated northern sections of the Coastal Zone will account for a greater contribution to tertiary industry growth. Thus the Houston-Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur- Orange areas likely will exceed state averages for growth in both employment and per capita income. Appendix A gives the methodology used in establishing projections for population, industry and employment in the Coastal Zone. Appendix B delineates future studies that are needed to support and clarify initial research efforts. Particular emphasis is placed IV-32 on continuous monitoring of key indicators to identify changes important to future planning and policy formulation. Appendices C and D are scenarios reflecting the economic import- ance for Texas of several potential developments. Appendix C describes the economic implications of a deepwater superport in the Gulf of Mexico, and Appendix D presents the economic considerations evolving from the location of a nuclear power sou rce in the Coastal Zone of Texas. IV-33 APPENDIX A APPENDIX A PROJECTION METHODOLOGY POPULATION The ratio correlation method was utilized to determine the population projections for Texas counties which were used to compute the state, Coastal Zone, and state planning region projections. Five symptomatic variables: births, deaths, automobile registrations, food sales, and retail sales were used-in a regression equation to predict county portions of the state's variables. When combined with a 1970/1960 regression equation predicting the proportionate represen- tation of the state's total population in each county, a projected population proportion for each county was produced. These proportions were then multiplied by U.S. Census Bureau (1967) projected state totals (adjusted to reflect the 1970 census) and two sets of projec- tions were obtained: 1. The upper limit of the projection range includes assumptions of slightly increasing fertility during the projection period based on the Bureau of the Census projection series I-B. 2. The lower limit of the projection range includes assumptions of slightly decreasing fertility during the period based on Bureau of Census projection series I-D. INDUSTRY The method employed to obtain future production and economic value projections was the standard linear regression model assuming constant slope. This was modified by allowing tolerances of from five to ten percent above and below the value projected for the year 2000 depending on the accuracy of the data and future assumptions used. The ranges given for mineral values and cumulative crude oil production in Figures 16 and 17 are located entirely below that predicted by the model due to the preponderance of crude oil in total mineral values and recent trends in proven reserves. A-1 The trends in future percentage distribution of broad sector industries in Figure 14 were faired graphically and projected in accordance with the normal development of a balanced region. EMPLOYMENT Employment trends indicated by total employment figures for 1960, 1968, 1970 and Texas Employment Commission estimates for 1975 were used in a least squares linear regression formula to obtain a trend line to the year 2000. When combined with population trends and projections and modified according to past trends, state and Coastal Zone employment projections were developed dependently and independently of each other. Historical trends in employment since 1948 and industrial growth projected to the year 2000 by broad industrial sector were utilized to facilitate the breakdown of projections for the state and Coastal Zone into primary, secondary and tertiary industrial employment. These were also adjusted to reflect Texas Employment Commission short-range esti- mates for employment by industrial sector. RECOMENDED PROJECTION MONITORING New socio-economic and industrial projections made at two-year intervals should be superimposed over previous projections to obtain a trend line in projections. Such a technique will serve to validate and/or refine methodology as well as obtain a more broadbased and consequently more realistic range of projections. A-2 APPENDIX B APPENDIX B FUTURE STUDIES Future study efforts recommended here should be coordinated by the Governor's Planning Office and administered by the Councils of Government in the appropriate Coastal Zone state planning region who will be able to immediately integrate the information into their own regional planning studies. 1. Systematic, continuous monitoring and collection of land use and socio-economic data can be utilized to formulate an accurate composite picture of the Coastal Zone on a per county basis. 2. Future assumptions for economic development should be reviewed and updated periodically in order to form a more accurately defined reference point from which to project future needs, trends, and resources. 3. Future efforts should include regional environmental impact studies of alternative land use development patterns and changes in resource allocations. a. Renewable resource studies should be tied to an economic impact analysis of the food processing industry in the Coastal Zone. b. Non-renewable resource studies should be related closely to an impact analysis of the petrochemical industry in the Coastal Zone. 4. Redistribution of industrial activity in the Coastal Zone relative to that of statewide activity should be monitored as a key indicator of future demographic distribution. a. Primary industrial activity should be broken down into more specific S.I.C. components and growth trends identified. A-3 b. A more specific analysis of the various manufac- turing activities in the Coastal Zone should be made with emphasis on trends in value added and capital expenditures. c. Trends in the various tertiary or consumer-oriented activities should be differentiated as a key indicator of the economic*maturity of the Coastal Zone. Any detailed tertiary industry analysis should integrate an i.n-depth study of the economic impact of coastal recreation and tourism. 5. Studies outlining the potential of alternative sources of power and water should be undertaken in order to assist in the formulation of policies influencing the future utilization of these resources. a. The potential of nuclear power to provide electri- city and water to the Coastal Zone and state should be given priority in long range planning. b. Optimal site location studies relative to nuclear and fossil fuel power plants should be modified only by analysis of the most rational and scien- tific environmental data and standards. A-4 APPENDIX C I APPENDIX C E C 0 N 0 M I C I M P L I C A T 1 0 N S OF THE TEXAS S U P E R P 0 R T The economy of Texas during the past 30 or 40 years has changed from one dominated by agriculture to one oriented toward manufacturing with a strong dependence upon water transportation. Petroleum refining and petrochemical-based industries have grown especially fast during this period due to Texas' plentiful supplies of essential raw materials-- crude oil, natural gas, sulfur, salt, limestone, and water. Today, however, because of the decline in exploration activity, domestic reserves of oil and gas are rapidly being depleted in Texas and through- out the nation, and demand for imports of oil and gas is rising. During World War II, the standard oil tanker in service was the T-2, a Vessel with 16,600 deadweight tons (dwt) capacity and a fully- loaded draft of 30 feet. The depth of water in substantially all of the world's harbors was adequate for the draft of this class vessel. However, starting in 1967 after the second closing of the Suez Canal, the dual demands of huge volumes and long distances for oil moved to Western European markets caused a mushrooming in the average size of new tankers. Today, many oil-hauling ships have capacities in excess of 200,000 dwt and fully-loaded drafts of 60 to 90 feet. In 1970, more than 185 million tons of cargo moved through the 12 deep water ports of Texas. Of this total, 140 million tons, or about 75 percent, consisted of liquids, mainly petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemicals. This high proportion of liquid cargo indicates the degree of Texas' dependence upon tanker traffic. Yet, because of recent trends toward bigness in tankers, existing ports in Texas are grossly inadequate to meet the depth requirements of new generation ships. It has been estimated that by 1983, more than 1,400 vessels, out of a world tanker fleet of 4,384, will be unable to enter Texas ports. The impact of a superport upon Texas will be significant. Construc- tion of a deep water terminal presents a clear opportunity for our industrial community to grow. Industrial expansion will occur in companies utilizing imported oil and gas to produce finished products for export and domestic consumption. Service industries to support and maintain the superport and related onshore facilities would show A-5 dramatic growth. Direct benefits would accrue, for instance, to firms providing barge and tug services as well as to other transportation modes like rail and truck services. Also enjoying growth would be scientific and technical firms, repair and maintenance oriented companies, and a host of service and supply firms related to the construction and operation of gathering stations, pipeline terminals and onshore pipeline facilities. It is also evident that the trade losses to the Texas economy will be directly and indirectly significant if we fail to build a deep water port. Presently, Texas deepdraft ports handle 1/7 of the total tonnage shipped in the United States annually. But, without adequate docking facilities in the state, supersized ships will establish trade routes where such facilities exist and Texans will not enjoy the economic advantages of lower transportation costs available through use of giant ships. .The marine transportation industry in Texas employs over 55,000 people and annually contributes over $1 billion to the state's economy. There will be a direct loss in tonnage and employment if Texas cannot accommodate the supertankers. A-6 APPENDIX D APPENDIX D ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS 0 F A N U P L E X During the remainder of this century, the State of Texas has an outstanding opportunity to serve the individual, municipal, agricultural and industrial components of society; the Coastal Zone will play a major role in these events. In the near future, the Nation, the State of Texas, and the Coastal Zone are going to need: more water, el ectri ci ty, energy, food, industrial production, employment, economic development of rural areas, equitable distribution of our population between urban and rural areas, and opportunities for the less advantageous members of our society. But simultaneously we will have to have: less - pollution of our environment, - congestion, crime, and urban sprawl in our major population areas, and a better - utilization of all our natural resources and - way of live for our entire population. Advanced technology in the areas of atomic power, the generating of electricity, and the desalting of sea water into fresh water provides A-7 a means by which many of these problems can be met. The integration of these technologies are embodied in the Nuplex concept. A Nuplex is a large agglomeration of agricultural and industrial facilities combined with the necessary supporting population and producing and fabricating products derived from the abundant supply of low-cost electricity and desalted water provided by a nuclear power reactor. The concept is based upon the efficient utilization of energy to pro- vide food, industrial and chemical products, and consumer goods to a modern society. Based on physical, social, and economic considerations, Texas appears to be a state in which Nuplex will most likely be located. It is one of the very few states which can locate a Nuplex such that it will be: 1. near a large body of salt water, 2. near vast acreages of semi-arid land suitable for multiple croppings, 3. near several large population centers which have (or will have): a. good transportation and marketing facilities of all forms and b. shortages of water and/or electricity within the next decade, and 4. simultaneously in a rural, relatively undeveloped area from which a new city could be developed using the Nuplex as its "economic heart." The social and economic impacts of an abundant supply of fresh water and cheap electricity to the economy of southern Texas could be enormous. Fresh water production could be important to the region in two ways. First, the cost of desalination is continually decreasing. In 1952 the cost of desalting water was more than $4 per 1000 gallons. Last year, Mexico completed a 7.5 million g.p.d. desalting plant in which the cost is expected to be about 65t per 1000 gallons. In the near future, sea water desalting facilities will be combined with electricity generating facilities in large dual-purpose plants which will reduce the cost of desalting water to less than 20t per 1000 gallons as well as lower the cost of generating electricity. The second important consideration is that the value of water to our society has been increasing and will continue to increase due to the rapid growth in population and the per capita consumption of water. A-8 The value of fresh water to south Texas, our primary study area, could be quite high due to the region's long growing season, long days of bright sunlight, moderate winter temperatures, fertile soil and large supply of unskilled labor available. With adequate fresh water, south Texas could become a major producer of virtually all of the high value fruit, vegetable and nut crops. Given the climate, topography and labor supply of south Texas, it would appear that intensified agricul- ture could be expanded considerably with additional fresh water and thereby help reduce the low income, unemployment and social problems in the area. In addition to the water requirement for agriculture, the water requirements for municipalities are increasing, and the availability of water from present sources is rapidly diminishing. This condition will become more serious as population in the major metropolitan centers continues to increase. According to the Office of Saline Water, there are 88 Texas communities with a population of 1000 or more which have a water supply containing total dissolved solids in excess of 1000 p.p.m. These 88 communities had a combined 1969 population of 700,000. This same agency states that good drinking water should not contain more than 500 dissolved p.p.m. and that 1000 p.p.m. should not be used for human consumption. Present research studies being conducted by agencies such as the Oak Ridge National Labora 'tory and universities such as Texas A&M University promise to improve the efficiency of desalting plants to the- point that desalted water could be a competitive source of supply. Similarly, the impact of low-cost electricity generation could have a strong stimulating effect on this region. Texas has been attracting new industries at an unprecedented rate during the last several years. However, only a limited number have located in southern Texas outside the major cities. The proximity to major consumer markets of the nation, a good transportation network, an abundant supply of labor and a favor- able climate are the major factors that most industries seek in a plant location. These factors are presently available in this area. A low- cost source of electrical power could serve as the catalyst for the economic development of a depressed region inhabited by a minority ethnic group. The scope and breadth of all t 'he economic considerations of a Nuplex project are virtually unlimited. The socio-economic group is concerned primarily with finding answers to the questions regarding who, what, when, where, and why. For example, - who will build the Nuplex; - who will organize and operate it; - what should it produce; A-9 - what sections of the economy are most important--should we concentrate most of the Nuplex's output towards serving the industrial sector, supplying water and electricity for municipalities, or towards serving the agricultural sector; - what will be the major inputs and outputs of the Nuplex; - what type of transportation will be required for most of the products--do we need to have air, railroad, pipeline, and large facilities available or can some of these facilities be excluded; - what will be the social consequences of the Nuplex in terms of: a. population redistribution, b. economic stimulation to rural development and urban renewal, c. alleviation of congestion in central cities, and d. development of new towns; - where will the Nuplex be located; - where should it be located to optimize alternative objectives such as: a. maximum economic efficiency, b. maximum social benefit, c. maximum social cost and risk, and d. maximum net social benefit; - where will its primary markets be; - from where will its imported resources have to come; - when is the optimum time to build the facility and should it be built all at once or in stages? The answer to the w@y question regarding the whole Nuplex opera- tion and each of its particular components has to be answered in this way: because a Nuplex offers the cheapest, most efficient (or less disruptive) alternative means of obtaining these products for society. There are many problems with a Nuplex which have yet to be resolved; however, with the continuing advancement of technology and the additional research efforts that are now being applied in this area, these problems will be overcome. A-10 The Nuplex will not solve all of our problems, but considering the number and magnitude of pro'Flems that society has and will have within the next two decades, its place in history will be secure if it can merely help alleviate some of these difficulties. A-11 I BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Arbingast, Stanley A., "Texas Manufacturing, 1971," Texas Business Review, Bureau of Business Research, The University of Texas at Austin, February, 1972. 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Office of the Governor, Goals for Texas Phase Two, State of Texas, September, 1970. Perloff, Harvey S. and Vera W. Dodds, How A Region Grows, Committee for Economic Development supplementary paper #17, 1963. Poston, Dudley L. and Benjamin S. Bradshaw, "Texas Population in 1970: 1. Trends, 1950-1970," Texas Business Review, May, 1971, pp. 97-109. Poston, Dudley L. and Benjamin S. Bradshaw, "Texas Population in 1970: 2. Trends in Age Composition, 1940-1970," Texas Business Review, October, 1971, pp. 209-218. The Railroad Commission of Texas, Annual Report of the Oil and Gas Division, Austin, Texas, 1970. Ryan, Robert S., et. al., An Economic Profile of Texas to 1990, Bureau of Business Research, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas. Sales Management, the Marketing Magazine, (various years), "Survey of-'Buying Power," Sales-Ranagement, Inc., New York, New York. Texas Employment Commission, Texas Empl Ument Outlook to 1975, Austin: Texas Employment Commiss-lon, July, 1971. Texas Highway Department, Texas Visitor Industry, 1971, Travel Information Division, Austin, Texas, 1971. Texas Urban Development Commission, Urban Texas: Policies for the Future, Austin: Texas Urban D opment Commission, N-o-ve-mFe-r, 1971. U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, Urban and Rural America4 Policies for Future Growth, Washing U.S. Uo-vernment Printing Office, April, 1968. U.S. Department of Agriculture and Texas Department of Agriculture, 1970 Texas County Statistics, Statistical Reporting Service, Wh-asington, D.C. U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census of Agriculture (various years), Bureau of Census, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. U.S. Department of Commerce, 'County and City Data Book, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 1967. U.S. Department of Commerce, "Earnings by' Broad Industrial Sector 1929-1969," Office of Business Economics, Washington, D.C., 1971. U.S. Department of Commerce, "Per Capita Personal Income for Selected Years 1929-1969," Office of Business Economics, Washington, D.C., 1971. U.S. Department of Commerce, 'U.S. Census of Population 1950: Number of Inhabitants, Texas, Bureau of the Census, Washington: Government Printing Office, 1952. U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census of Population 1970: Number of Inhabitants, Texas, Bureau of the Census, Washington-. Government Pri@-t-ing Office, 1971. U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Yearbook (various years), U.S. Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. Wood, Leonard, Reconnaissance Investigation fo the Groundwater Resources of the Gulf Coast Region, Texas, U.S. Geological Survey and Texas Water Commission, Austin, Texas, June, 1963. Wright, Arthur L. and Warren T. 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