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Coastal Zone Loft Information "Center REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS ON THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE I-,' W1 -Owl HC 107 .M2 N49 1971 REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS ON THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE A report to the Maine State Planning Office on estimates of regional and national demands on the water and related land resources of the Maine coastal zone. January, 1971 U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA COASTAL SERVICES CENTER 2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE CHARLESTON, SC 29405-2413 Preparation of this report has been assisted in part by a grant from the New England Regional Commission. This material is the result of tax-supported research and as such is not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with customary crediting of source. Property of CSC Library NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION NERBC 55 Court Street. Boston, Massachusetts 02108 (617) 223-6244 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION 55 COURT STREET - BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02108 PHONE: (617) 223-6244 NERBC N;iiiv January 29, 1971 Mr. Philip M. Savage Director State Planning Office Merrill Building State Street Augusta, Maine 04330 Dear Mr. Savage: I am pleased to transmit a report on regional and national demands on the Maine coastal zone. As you know, the resources- of the coast of Maine have special value and significance to the people of New Enaland and the entire Nation as well as to the residents of Maine, and are under intense developmental pressures. Across the country, the capability of government to preserve environmental values while simultaneously providing for develop- mental needs is being severely tested in the coastal zone. We congratulate the State of Maine for responding to this critical issue by developing a pilot statewide coastal planning program which includes careful consideration of regional and national interests. We are proud to be associated with the State of Maine in this effort, and hope it may serve as a model for coastal states throughout the Nation. We trust our contributions will prove useful, and look forward to continuing cooperation in Maine's efforts. Sincerely yours, Frank Gregg Chairman @@/Off 11-?@ Errata .Regional and National DeMands an the Maine Coastal Zone ages 46 and 47 are out of sequence and incorrectly numbered. The report's page 47 should be page 46 following page 45; and the report's page 46 should be renumbered page 47. 2. Page 56. Table 12 -- Title should read: "Estimated Future Regional Power Requirements" TABLE OF CONTENTS Page BACKGROUND 1 OBJECTIVES 3 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY 5 Scope 5 Methodology 8 OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS 15 Characteristics of Maine Coastal Zone 15 Characteristics of Regional and National Interests and Demands 17 National Interests 20 Regional Interests 21 Megalopolitan Interests 21 ANALYSIS OF STATE, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL RESOURCE DEMANDS 29 IMPORTANT CONTROLLING FACTORS OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS 29 Transportation Development 29 Climate 32 Location 33 Availability of Marketable Resources 33 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND RECREATION 35 Regional and National Demand for En- vironmental Quality and Recreation 35 Environmental Quality and Recreational Facilities 48 POWER AND ENERGY Power 56 Statement on Thermal Power Plant Siting 63 RESOURCE CONVERSION AND MANUFAC- TURING 70 Commercial Fisheries 70 Industrial Self-supplied Processing and Cooling Water 72 Minerals 74 ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT COASTAL RE- SOURCE PROBLEMS 77 Page- Water Quality 77 Flood Damage Reduction 79 Erosion Control 80 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 83 APPENDIX A 85 Permanent and Seasonal Population of Coastal Minor Civil Divisions 87 List of Figures Figure I Maine Coastal Zone 6 Figure 2 North Atlantic Regional Water Resources Study Areas 10 Figure 3 Population Trends of the Maine Coastal Z one 19 Figure 4 Some Current Regional & National Interests in the Maine Coastal Zone 22 Figure 5 Population Relationships - The Maine Coastal Zone and the North Atlantic Megalopolis 24 Figure 6 Population Densities of Major Popula- tion Centers and Driving Times to the Maine Coastal Zone 25 Figure 7 Land and Water Shipments To and From the Maine Coast 31 Figure 8 Landscape Quality & Driving Time from Major Metropolitan Areas in the Northeastern Megalopolis 36 Figure 9 Seasonal Population Pressures in Municipalities of the Maine Coastal Z one 38 Figure 10 Recreation Activity at Acadia National Park Compared to National Parks 41 Figure 11 Projected Visitors to Public Recreation Areas in the Maine Coastal Zone 43 Figure 12 Areas for Special Environmental Pro- tection in the State of Maine 49 Figure 13 Eastern Coastal Maine 50 Figure 14 Penobscot Area Northern Steep Hills 51 Figure 15 Projected Future Electrical Power De- mands for the State of Maine 57 Page Figure 16 Projected Future Regional Electrical Power Demands 58 Figure 17 Possible Future Electrical Power Generation in the Maine Coastal Zone & Associated Cooling Water Require- ments 62 List of Tables Table 1 NAR Resource Demand Conversion Factors 11 2 Demands on Coastal Resources Attri- butable to Regional National Out-of- State Interests 12 3 Population Trends of the Maine Coastal Z one 18 4 Projected Tonnage of Waterborne Comm- erce in the Maine Coastal Zone 32 5 Average Vacation Home Seasonal Usage 39 6 Comparative Estimates of Regional and National Demand at Public Recreation Areas in the Maine Coastal Zone 42 7 Capacity and Use of Overnight Accommo- dations Along the Maine Coastal Zone 44 8 Estimated Future Demand for Non-Resi- dent Sport Fishing in the Maine Coastal Z one 45 9 Estimated Pleasure Craft Within the Maine Coastal.Zone 46 10 Estimated Land Requirements to be Subjected to Landscape Protection in the Maine Coastal Zone 52 11 Comparative Estimates of Public Re- creation and Requirements in the Maine Coastal Zone 55 12 Past and Estimated Future Power Re- quirements in the Maine Coastal Zone 56 13 Estimated Future Power Generation in the Maine Coastal Zone 60 14 Estimated Future Power Generation in the Maine Coastal Zone 61 15 Past Trends in Oil Imports to the Maine Coastal Zone 67 Page Table 16 Projected Electric Generation Demands for Oil in the Northeastern United States 68 17 Estimated Future Requirements for In- dustrial Self-supplied Processing and Cooling Water in the Maine Coastal Zone 73 18 Water Quality Requirements for Use of the Maine Coastal Zone 78 19 Average Annual Flood Damages in the Maine Coastal Zone 79 20 Estimated Erosion Control Requirements in the Maine Coastal Zone 81 Cover photo of Wells Harbor by Stephen Nichols iv BACKGROUND As the principal agency for the coordination of federal, state, interstate, local and nongovernmental plans for the develop- ment of water and related land resources in the region, the New England River Basins Commission has developed a joint federal- state approach to coastal zone planning. This approach recognizes that the state should be the active leader in plan formulation. At the same time, the Commission strategy recognizes the sig- nificance of regional and national interests of the zone. Under the leadership of the State of Maine and in cooperation with the New England Regional Commission, NERBC is actively involved in the development of a coastal zone plan for the Maine coast. This report represents a portion of the Commission's input to that planning effort. OBJECTIVES The objectives of this report are to set forth a preliminary framework forecasting future regional and national pressures on the water and related land resources-of the Maine coastal zone. Forecasts of these pressures are based largely upon past occurrences, assessments of present conditions, and a variety of possible future events. The projected trends are based upon current regional, national, and state policies as well as the pre- sent social, economic, technological, environmental, political, legal, and institutional framework. Significant changes in this framework could, of course, significantly change the projections. The forecasts presented in this report are not goals, objectives or proposals but only indications of what could or might occur given the extension of present conditions. One of the primary values of these forecasts is to give perspective to the future and thereby allow planners and decision-makers to assess the pos- sible conflicts resulting from current happenings. A sound strategy for public and private policy to deal with the implications of present trends can then be developed. The information included in this report should help to identify critical priority areas for the Maine coastal zone and assist in.the preparation of a pilot plan for Penobscot Bay proposed for Phase Il of the Maine coastal planning effort. In the final analysis, the primary objective of this report is to strengthen the planning and decision-making processes for determining the most appropriate and best uses of the coastal zone in the context of the regional, national and local interest. 3 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY Scope This report brings together information which can be use- ful in assessing probable future demands on the Maine coastal zone. No new information or data was developed; instead, an attempt was made to unify many sources of existing information and place it in a sound context. No significant attempt has been made to reconcile varying points of view or. subjective judgments which may have entered into the development of sections of the information presented. Many of the forecasts included in the report are drawn from the North Atlantic Water and Related Land Resources Study (NAR) which is a broad assessment of future needs, available resources and identification of possible conflicts and alternative solutions for water and related land resources of an area extending from Virginia to Maine. The NAR Study is being led by the Corps of Engineers under the guidance of the national Water Resources Council with inputs by federal and state agencies having resources planning and management responsibilities. Since the NAR study is nearing completion, minor modifica- tions of the information prepared as a part of the study are likely prior to final publication. The information contained in this report is, therefore, preliminary. The Maine coastal zone as defined by the State of Maine and used in this report consists of all coastal minor civil divisions on tidewater and associated marine areas within which conflicts may occur. This, in general, is a strip ten miles deep along the coastal and tidewater areas. The coastal zone includes: 139 minor civil division, 3, 451 square miles, a permanent population of 443, 717 and a combined summer resident and non-resident population of 614, 6Z7 in 1966. The area, shown on Figure 1, comprises 10. 40/c of the state's total land area. T' External demands, pressures or requirements are defined as thoseresource pressures that originate outside of the state, Maine Coastal Development Plan, Phase I Report, Maine State Planning Office, 1970. 5 Ve 0 40 20 30 MILAS r) 0 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS MAINE COASTAL ZONE JANUARY 1971 NO. and include private or public investment decisions, seasonal, or permanent population patterns, and market situations that exist out of state but have a powerful influence in governing resource management decisions within the state. Thus many enterprises with operations in Maine are owned and directed by out of state corporations and are considered external pressures. This is true of several forest products companies as well as several real estate ventures. Similarly seasonal non-residents may own property in Maine but if they are legal residents of another state they are considered to be external forces. The same applies to market situations where the primary market is out of state but the nature of Maine's resource situation is such that the economic activity is carried on within Maine even though the market served is out of state. Deep water port and nuclear energy interests are examples of this. These interests seek locations within Maine because of the natural configuration of the seabed and the abundance of cold water. The market for the oil brought into the deep water ports and for the electrical energy generated at coastal nuclear plants is primarily external to Maine. External pressures reflect regional and national interests. Regional interests are those that have primary significance and impact on the other New England states. Thermal power facility siting, commercial fisheries, and scenic and recreational resources are examples of these interests. National interests are those that have impact and significance to the nation or parts Of the nation beyond New England. Areas of direct federal involvement are included in this category. Examples of federal interests are fish and wildlife refuges, national parks, navigational channels, areas of unique historical or scenic value, and water quality. National and regional interests can be further defined as those that have a unique value to the nation or to the region. For example, -nationally, the public is interested in using federal money to protect the value of those things along the Maine Coast that are of unique value to the nation and is further interested in maximiz- ing the return on each federal dollar invested along the Maine Coast. Examples of this national interest are the provision of public access and protection to the unique ecological and landscape values of Mt. Desert Island; protecting the production of the famous Maine lobster, and extending the recreational values of the traditional rock-bound coast of Maine, itself. These three examples are unique to Maine and of equal value to a man in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or Calais, Maine. 7 Examples of regional interest are the seven deep water harbors that could receive deep draft tankers and perhaps lower the cost of oil in New England, nuclear power plant sites near abundant cold water, which could provide less costly electric energy, and regional water-oriented recreational developments. It also includes insuring that regional environmental and economic values are preserved and maintained. A recent report noted that ''the people living in the immediate vicinity of.p4blic lands have a strong desire that these lands contribute meaningfully to the quality of the environment in which they live'' and ''it is in the regional public interest to have the federal government, as land owner, pay its fair share of the costs of adequate local and state governmental services."i Methodology The regional and national interests in the coast of Maine are substantial. in setting forth these interests, relatively uniform criteria and standards must be applied. The following questions are suggested as a test to decide whether or not a resource system is of regional or national significance. National Interest 1. Is it unique or valuable to the nation or major parts of the nation? 2. Does it have a significant impact on the nation and does the nation have a significant impact on it? 3, Is there direct federal involvement? Regional interests are particularly difficult to define, especially concerning the demarcation between regional and national interests. The suggested test for defining the regional interest is as follows: Regional Interest 1. Is it unique or valuable to New England or large parts of New England or to interests extending beyond local or state boundaries? One Third of the Nation's Land, Public Land Law Review Commission, June 1970. 8 2. Does it have an impact on New England extending beyond local or state boundaries, and is it significantly affected by action outside of the local area or state? 3. Is there regional concern or involvement? I The information included in this report is drawn largely from NAR and other private and governmental studies. NAR infor- mation for the Maine Coastal Zone is disaggregated into four major areas as shown in Figure 2 and as follows: Area 2 Penobscot River Basin Area 3 Kennebeck River Basin Area 5 St. Croix River Basin and Atlantic Coastal Area from the International Boundary to Cape Small, Maine Area 6 Presumpscot River Basin, Saco River Basin, Piscata- qua River Basin and Atlantic Coastal Area from Cape Small Maine to New Hampshire -Massachusetts State Line Judgements and estimates were developed based upon popu- lation, area, and other varying factors concerning the demands placed upon resources within the coastal zone portion of these areas. Based upon those estimates, the following factors on percent of resource pressure of the total area placed on the coastal zone portion was prepared. This is shown in Tables 1 and 2. The conversion factors were developed by considering what po rtion of each of the NAR areas was represented by the coastal zone as defined by the Maine planning program, and further esti- mating what percentage of each resource pressure was generated in the coastal zone. As an example, only a fraction of Penobscot Basin lies within the coastal zone area, but all of the navigation that takes place in the Penobscot takes place in the coastal zone, while only a:bout 15 percent of the recreational activity in the same general area occurs in the coastal zone. NAR BASIN OR AREA AREA 2 PENOBSCOT RIVER, MAINE 3 KENNEBEC RIVER, MAINE 5 ST. CROIX RIVER, MAINE; AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA FROM THE INTER- NATIONAL BOUNDARY TO CAPE SMALL, MAINE 6 PRESUMPSCOT RIVER, MAINE; SACO RIVER, MAINE & HEW HAMPSHIRE; PISCATAQUA RIVER, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE; AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA FROM CAPE SMALL, MAINE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE-MASSACHUSETTS STATE LINE . ...... ........ 0 io 20 30 0 rl MILES NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS WATER RESOURCES STUDY AREAS 2 JANUARY 1971 OF THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE NO . Table 1 NAR Resource Demand Conversion Factors Percent of Resource Pressure in Coastal Zone Resource NAR Area 2 3 5 6 Important Controlling Factors Navigation 100 100 100 100 Recreatiz)n & Environmental Quality Recreation 5 10 80 50 Visual & Cultural Environment 5 10 70 25 Fish & Wildlife 22 38 75 45 Power & Energy Electrical Production & Cooling 5 5 100 100 Resource Conversion & Manufacturing Public Water Supply 22 38 75 45 Industrially Self-supplied Water 15 20 75 45 Supply Additional Significant Problems Water Quality not applicable Flood Damage Reduction 5 5 80 15 Erosion Control 5 5 50 15 Source: NERBC staff estimates based upon data from the U.S. Census of Population 1970, NAR, and Maine State Highway Commission Map of Maine Use of these conversion factors provides a tool for trans- forming NAR resource demand data into useful planning inputs for the coastal zone. An attempt was then made to determine the por- tion of demand attributable to external interests. Table 2 presents these weighting factors. Table 2 Demands on Coastal Resources Attributable to Regional -National Out of State of Maine Interests Percent of total demand Important Controlling Factors Navigation go Recreation & Environmental Quality Recreation 85 Visual & Cultural Environment 75 Fish & Wildlife 65 Power & Energy Electrical Power Production Cooling 50 Resource Conversion & Manufacturing Municipal & Industrial Water Supply 55 Industrially -Self Supplied Water Supply 85 Additional Significant Problems Water Quality not applicable Flood Damage Reduction 30 Erosion Control 50 Source: NERBC staff estimates based on data from Maine Pocket Data Book, Maine Department of Economic Development, August 1969, Thermal Pollution Aspects of the Maine Yankee Atomic Power Plant at Wiscasset@ NERBC 1969. Statistics in the report have been derived from NAR and other data sources by calculating the percent of resource pressure that occurs in the coastal zone, simply multiplying the percentage from Table I and converting it to represent external demand by multiply- ing the percentages contained in Table 2. The projected trends developed within the report are based upon current regional, national and state policies as well as the present social, economic, techno- logical, environmental, political, legal and institutional framework. 12 The forecasts have been prepared largely relating to past occurences, assessn-)ertof present conditions and estimated probable future alter- native occurences. In general, the demands shown in Table 2 are derived from considering the amount of out of state interest represented in the use of the resource. Considering navigation, for example, 90 percent of total demand is estimated to represent out of state re- gional and national interests since about 80 percent of the commer- cial import tonnage is oil that is piped to Canada from Portland and an additional 10 percent is for servicing federal military in- stallations and the Bangor Airport which is considered an interna- tional jetport. Evaluating recreation, for instance, out of state pressures comprise 85 percent of total demand. 13 R "MM, gv@ V, Matinicus Island 14 OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS Characteristics of the Maine Coastal Zone The Maine coastal zone of Maine has irreplacable natural resources of important value and significance to the state, the New England region, and the nation. Because of mounting pressures on the coast and recognition of its importance, questions have been raised about appropriate uses of the coast that serve the public interest, whether that be local, regional or national. The Maine coast has not been despoiled to a major extent by the activities of man. It, therefore, remains a unique area of high environmental values and offers unusual opportunities for maintaining these values. At the same time, economic opportunity has seemingly evaded the Maine coast. Some would aIrgue that this is more than compensated for in the values of the quality of environment. Nevertheless, the characteristics and natural values of the coast can be considered a vital economic asset which can be mobilized to provide economic -stability to the area and concurrently preserve those natural systems, characteristics and values of the coast which are of intrinsic importance. Maine is on the fringe of the northeastern megalopolis. This fact itself is certain to engender external demands and pressures which heretofore were not visible. Vacation homes and limited tourism were principal external pressures of the past. More intensive tourism, aquaculture, increased commercial fishing, industrialization and research and education are possible external demands of the future. Some of the factors which preserved the Maine coast and maintained low population were poor transportation systems, lack of natural resources susceptible to economic development, and a relatively harsh climate. These factors and the effects of these factors are changing and are likely to continue to change. Regional and national demands on the Maine coast have been relatively modest in the past. External demands on the Maine coastal zone are increasing and forecasts for future demands indicate mounting regional and national pressures. There are several important features of the Maine coastal zone that give it special significance in terms of regional and national interest. Geographically it encompasses a combination of unique resource systems of high economic and environmental value. It is a heavily glaciated coast of 2, 208, 000 acres of which 200, 000 acres are located on 109 coastal islands and islands groups. Many streams and lakes are interspersed along the rocky, 15 hilly, 3, 500 miles of meandering shoreline. The combination of deep coves and well watered hills creates a natural land- scape of high visual quality. Six major rivers, numerous streams, and many lakes drain the coastal zone providing an abundance of fresh water of varying water quality. The heavily indented coastline contains numerous harbors of which seven have a mean low tide depth of at least 80 feet. The mean annual water temperature has been 480F for the last two years. I Climatic conditions over the last decade have created an annual air temperature of 45. 5OF with a range from a harsh January mean temperature of 23. 80F to a pleasant August mean temperature of 660F. 2 The Maine coast is sparsely settled, with a density of only 54 people per square mile, and has a relatively low popula- tion of 440, 000. Only 19 towns have populations in excess of 5, 000 and only nine have a population in excess of 10, 000. Most of the landscape is forest or abandoned farmland that is re- turning to a natural wild condition or being subdivided for second homes. Analysis of the 1970 U.S. Census data for Maine indicates some significant population characteristics. First, the Maine coastal zone concentrates 45 percent of the state's permanent population on only 11 percent of the land (443, 717 to a state total of 992, 048). Second, despite population concentration along the coast, the density is only 129 people per square mile. Third, the rate of population growth for the coastal zone is a low 1. 5 percent per decade, only slightly lower than the state's growth rate of 2. 4 percent per decade. However, the data indicates a significant population reduction in the industrial cities of Bangor, Bath, and Portland and in the economically depressed areas of Washington County. This suggests that people are leaving the depressed industrial cities and rural areas, and a much higher rate of population growth (8 percent per decade) is occurring in other areas where tourism is providing a sound economic base. This is particularly evident in Lincoln, Hancock, Cumberland, and York Counties. For example, Lincoln County, which is almost entirely in the coastal zone, experienced about a 9 percent population increase from 1960 to 1970 (16, 509 to 17, 950) and has an estimated seasonal population of 40, 000 people. Water temperatures at Boothbay Harbor have fluctuated from 470F in 1935 to 52'F in 1953 but are expected to decrease from the present 480F over the next decade. Z Telephone conversation with Maine Sea and Shore Fisheries, Augusta, Maine; and U.S. Weather Service, Boston, Massachusetts, January 1971. 16 It is important to realize that population concentration, density, and growth are not current problems on the coast. Population trends are shown in Table 3 and Figure 3. One level assumes a continuation of the current relatively slow 1. 5 percent per decade population growth. This has been selected as the lower limit because identifiable housing and economic develop- ment plans make it difficult to conceive of any slower rate. The higher level assumes an 8 percent per decade popula- tion growth based on a continuation of people moving to environ- mentally attractive places, more people taking advantage of the economic benefits of a growing tourist industry, and an expansion of the megalopolis into the Maine coastal zone. This higher growth rate reflects the possibility of Maine going the way of New Hampshire. I Even if the higher projected growth rate is achieved, this would mean a reasonably low 2020 population of 715, 000 or a density of Z07 persons per square mile. Therefore projected permanent population levels give no significant indi- cations of coastal resource pressure.2 For purposes of comparison Figure 3 illustrates the projected growth of the permanent population of the Maine Coast with the population growth projected by the NAR study for the North Atlantic Regional Study area. This NAR area of course includes the northeast megalopolis. Characteristics of Regional and National Interest and Demands In the past half decade regional and national interest in the nation's coastal zone has intensified. The problems, opportunities, and natural values of the coastal zone and acknowledgment of the zone as an irreplaceable national resource have been a basis for a framework of action for improved planning and management. 1Over the last decade neighboring New Hampshire had a growth rate of Zl. 5 percent. The primary force in New Hampshire is the growth of high technology industries that de- sire to be close to the expanding Boston metropolitan technological base, but to locate within New Hampshire so as to enjoy its tax and cost advantages. 2This is a very light density when compared to the 1960 average of 781 for the Atlantic Seaboard area from Augusta, Maine to Prince William County, Virginia which contains the most densely settled areas of the nation. The U. S. Department of the. Interior in its "The National Estuarine Pollution Study, " projects an increase in density to 1, 050 people per square mile by the year 2000 for this area. 17 Table 3 Population Trends of the Maine Coastal Zone 1950 1960 1970 1980 2000 2020 Population, persons 408,296 437,158 443,717 450,000 464,000 478,000 -488,000 -591,000 -715,000 Growth rate of decade 6. 9% 1.50/, Density, people per sq. Mile 118 127 129 130-141 134-171 139-207 Percent of State population in Coastal Zone 44.7% 45.1% 44. 7% Source: NERBC staff projection based on U. S. Census information 18 90,000,000 80,000,000 10000, 70,000,000 NORTH ATLANTIC REGION 000, z 60,000,000 0 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 lo,ooo,ooo -SOURCE: NAK WAIER RESOURCES STUDY, ECONOMIC BASE, ol m AY 1968 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 YEAR 1,600,000 2.4%-80/o POPULATION GROWTH PER DECADE 1,200,000 t STATE OF MAINE 0 1.5%-10%- 800,000 POPULATION GROWTH PER DECADE R COAST@L ZONE amm werm - 400,000 SOURCE: NERBC STAFF 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 YEAR NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION POPULATION TRENDS FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS OF THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE 3 JANUARY 1971 NERBC NO. National Interests On the federal level, based on Congressional directive, several national studies have investigated and proposed a strategy @'for national action for preserving the'values and guiding approp- riate development of the coastal zone. . The Commission on Marine Science Engineering and Re-. sources in January 1969 completed a report titled Our Nation and the Sea -- A Plan for National Action. The Fe7_e_r_aT_V7_ater Quality Administration recently completed the National Estuarine Pollution Study and the Fish and WildTl'-fe -Servic.e has prepared a National Estuary S tudy directed at the fisheries and wildlife val-@_esof the estuarine zone. This last report specifically investigated the feasibility and desirability of establishing a nationwide system of estuaries and estuarine areas. Also, the National Shoreline (Erosion) Study is being completed by the Corps of Engineers. Each of these studies has set forth the national, regional, and local interests and implications of the coastal zone. The National Oceanographic,and Atmospheric Administration has recently been formed as a result of an executive order by the President, and major national legislation dealing with planning and management of the coastal zone is now before the Congress and will probably be enacted during the next session. The role- of the federal government in the coastal zone has historically been and still is pointed at navigation, commercial shipping (inter'state and international commerce), and national -defense. It has however become increasingly clear that the federal interest. extends beyond this limited view and includes recreation, fisheries and wildlife, mineral exploitation, water quality, shore erosion control, and flood damage reduction. In the Maine coastal zone, Acadia National Park, commercial and recreational shipping channels at Portland, Bar Harbor, Belfast Harbor, Bucksport Harbor and many others; Rachel Carson Fish and Wildlife Refuge, the water pollution enforcement conference on Penobscot Bay, and a National Fisheries Biological Laboratory at Boothbay Harbor are all positive indicators of federal interests. The Maine coastline represents aboxt62 percent of the New England coastline and 5 percent of the nation's. The point of view that the value and responsibilities of the coastal zone should be shared by all citizens whether they live in Maine or in Idaho has been convincingly put forward. 20 Regional Interest Regional action and interest towards the coastal zone has similarly intensified. A New England Marine Resources Information Program (NEMRIP) has been established and housed at the University of Rhode Island. The New England Regional Commission (NERCOM) in cooperation with other regional marine groups, such as The Research Institute of the Gulf of Maine (TRIGOM), is looking toward advancing aquaculture as an im- portant component of the New England economy. NERCOM has also participated in deliberations for the establishment of Machiasport as a regional oil facility and has proposed to in- vestigate the feasibility of solid waste residual disposal at sea as a possible regional short-term solution of solid waste management. In developing its agenda for action, NERCOM has identified ocean resources as a significant element of New England's future economic vitality. Included in their proposals are support for marine industry development, coastal zone planning and management and strengthening of marine science research, education, and manpower training. As the principal agency responsible for the coordination and development of plans for water and related land resburces, NERBC has proposed a cooperative program with the Regional Commission to initiate coastal zone planning with the New Eng- land coastal states. The Maine coastal zone planning effort, of which this report is a part, is a demonstration of this approach to federal-state development of coastal zone plans. The nature and character of the development of the Maine coast is certain to have regional impact. Conversely, regional action will, in large part, significantly influence the shape of development of the coast. Some specific areas of consideration include navigation and port development (Portland and Machias - Port ), marine resource development (aquaculture, lobsters, clams, seaworms, fish) recreation, tourism, and environmental quality (Old Orchard, York, Acadia, Boothbay Harbor, Mount Desert), mineral exploitation (oil, sand and gravel), fisheries and wildlife (flyways, breeding and spawning areas), industrial development (petroleurn refinery proposals), and nuclear power plant siting (Wiscasset). Some areas of regional and national interest in the Maine Coastal Zone are shown in Figure 4. Megalopolitan Pressures In assessing the characteristics of regional and national demands, it is necessary to look first at the characteristics of the North Atlantic urban megalopolis and than at the characteristics of federal involvement along the coast of Maine. The northeast megalopolis extends along the eastern sea- board of the United States from Virginia'to New Hampshire. 21 LEGEND 1 - PORTSMOUTH-KITTERY NAVAL SHIPYARD 2-RACHEL CARSON NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE 3 - LONG ISLAND OIL TERMINAL 4 - BATH IRON WORKS 5 - WISCASSET NUCLEAR POWER PLANT 6 - NATIONAL FISHERIES BIOLOGICAL LAB-BOOTHBAY 7 - NOAA TIDAL ESTUARINE FLUSHING FORECASTING SYSTEM 8 - FEDERAL WATER QUALITY ENFORCEMENT CONFERENCE ON PENOBSCOT BAY 9 - SEARSPORT OIL TERMINAL 10 - SCHOODIC POINT NAVAL BASE 11 - ACADIA NATIONAL PARK 12 - MACHIASPORT OIL FACILITY PROPOSAL 13 - MOOSEHORN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE 14 - 64 COMMERCIAL & RECREATIONAL NAVIGATION PROJECTS 15 - PROPOSED NATIONAL SYSTEM OF ISLANDS 16 - DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE RESOURCE CONSERVATION & DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS 17 - 28 SMALL WATERSHED PROJECTS 13 BANGOR AIRPORT /IV 40 BRUNSWICK N AL, Di- AV 7 AIR CENTER' 10 Po 9 j-A RT, 7 17 16 6 15 5 14 4 3 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS SOME CURRENT REGIONAL& NATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE 4 JANUARY 1971 -Bc MAINE COASTAL ZONE NO. Major metropolitan areas include Boston, Providence, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington D. C., Richmond, and Norfolk. Over 45 million people now live in the megalopolis more than one fifth of the nation's population on less than two percent of the nation's land, This population is growing at the rate of 2 percent per year and is expected to reach 54 million by 1980. The relationship between the Maine coastal zone and the megalopolis is shown in Figure 5. The average megalopolitan resident's median family income has increased from $6, 859 in 1960 to $8, 492 in 1967 (in 1967 dollars). Perhaps even more significant, the proportion of families with annual incomes under $5000 has dropped from 38. 6 percent in 1960 to 20. 3 percent in 1967; families in the $10, 000 and over bracket increased from 23. 4 percent in 1960 to 38. 0 percent in 1967. 1 Although Maine has incurred only minor direct resource pressure from the megalopolis to date, pressures are increasing along the entire coast'. The southern coast of Maine lies within two hours driving time of Boston and six hours of New York City, while the northern coast is only two hours beyond. Figure 6 illustrates relationships between major urban centers and the driving time to the Maine coast. The vitality of the urbanized northeastern United States is dependent on a steady inflow of resources that can be used in the activities and operation of the urban areas. There are five categories of Maine coastal resource demand and supply directly related to megalopolitan demands. These are: 1. Important controlling factors such as transporta- tion development including navigation facilities, electric utility lines, highways, and airportsi 2. Recreational facilities and access to high quality landscape environment. 3. Production of electric power and energy resource. 4. Conversion of resources into manufactured, marketable commodities. 5. Additional significant resource management pro- blems including water quality management, flood damage reduction, and erosion control. Northeast Transportation Corridor Report, Department of Transportation, 196@@. 23 ... iffiTHMM. N POPULATION OF MAINE COASTAL ZONE 400,000 je- 1-e9 POPULATION OF MEGALOPOLIS 45,000,000 SOURCE: NORTHEAST CORRIDOR TRANSPORTATION PROJECT REPORT, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION, APRIL 1970 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION POPULATION RELATIONSHIPS- Fli;- BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE AND 5 JANUARY 1971 THE NORTH ATLANTIC MEGALOPOLIS NO. MONTR .. .... .. .. .. .... I. SOURCES:, COUNTY AND CITY DATA BOOK, 1967 U.S. DEPT. OF COMMERCE, BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, 1967 NORTHEAST CORRIDOR TRANSPORTATION BANGOR PROJECT REPORT, U.S. DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION, APRIL 1970 ROAD ATLAS, 45th EDITION, RAND McNALLY, 1969 LAND 5-2.51 .......... 4. BUFFALO Fl 6.0 BOSTON ... .8. ..... ..... ..... ... ......... ME. NEW YORK CITY i @10 LEGEND PITTSBURGH .. . .... METROPOLITAN AREA PHILADELPHIA DENSITY, PERSONS PER 14.5 SQUARE MILE ..... 3,000 AND OVER 1000-3000 500-1,000 F4-51 DRIVING TIME IN HOURS ..... .. .. WASHINGTO D. DRIVING TIME& DISTANCE TO DENSITY OF METROPOLITAN PORTLAND BANGOR METROPOLITAN AREA, PERSONS TIME DISTANCE TIME DISTANCE AREA PER SQUARE MILE HOURS MILES HOURS MILES WASHINGTON, D.C. 1,348 13.0 546 16.0 678 PHILADELPHIA 1,222 8.5 413 13.0 545 NEW YORK 5,00 7.5 325 10.0 457 BOSTON 2,632 2.5 109 5.0 241 PITTSBURGH 789 14.5 707 17.5 839 BUFFALO 821 11.5 571 13.0 702 MONTREAL 51200 7.0 265 8.5 310 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION POPULATION DENSITIES OF MAJOR POPULATION FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS CENTERS AND DRIVING TIMES TO 6 JANUARY 1971 THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE OWN NO. The national interest in assisting in the management of these megalopolitan pressures may be assessed from the extent of the federal interest in specific programs and projects along the Maine coast. Of the total federal funds spent in Maine in 1969, 72 percent was allocated for expenditure within the coastal counties. Examples of significant specific federal interest are as follows: 1. Important Controlling Factors__67 navigation projects (Corps of Engineers), disposal of Dow Air Force Base to civilian control (General Services Adminis- tration) $36. 3 million in highway and Coast Guard funds representing 94. 7 percent of the total 1969 statewide Department of Transportation allocation to Maine, port terminal development in Portland (New England Regional Commission), operation of naval shipyard at Kittery and air station at Brunswick (Department of the Navy). 2. Recreation and Environmental Quality -- 40, 000 acres of federally administered land at Acadia National Park, Moosehorn and Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuges, eleven national his- toric landmarks, and Islands of America Study recommending a series of island trusts a-ro-ng the coast of Maine. (Department of Interior), National Estuary Study (Department of Interior). 3. Power and Energy- -licensing of the Maine Yankee atomic electrical power plant at Wiscasset (Atomic Energy Commission), administration of oil import quota (Department of the Interior). 4. Resource Conversion and Manufacturing---national coastal zone study Our Nation and the Sea (Commission on Marine Science Engineering and Resources), three resource conservation and development projects for rural economic develop - ment (Department of Agriculture), National Marine Biological Laboratory at Boothbay Harbor (De- partment of Interior), contracts for commercial vessels at Bath Iron Works (Department of Commerce). NERBC staff derivation from Federal Outlays in Maine, 1969, U. S. Office Economic Opportunity, 1970. 26 5. Additional Significant Resource Management Problems- -,@Xrater quality enforcement con- ference on Penobscot Bay, Estuarine Pollu- tion Study (Department of Interior), National gEoreline (erosion) Study (Army Corps of Engineers). 27 ccr- T@ I @Ff rn F@ g4 1 EP"15 V14 xk4 C u CLAMS u V-6 w I F-0 oft a, A F@-'Zun ww", -P Wiwi VD, 7% RM 21 r"A AIR Old Orchard Beach 28 ANALYSIS OF STATE, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL RESOURCE DEMANDS IMPORTANT CONTROLLING FACTORS OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEMANDS There are several important factors that can act to control regional and national demands on Maine's coastal zone. Four that have been identified in this report are : 1. The degree of transportation facility develop- ment. 2. The nature of the climate. 3. The location of the coast relative to other centers of demand and supply. 4. The availability of marketable resources. These four factors do not necessarily cause resource pressures in themselves, but act as controlling factors to regulate the intensity of external pressure. Transportation Development Urban centers are dependent upon transportation facilities to bring goods, services, and people in and out of the urban area. Maine has not yet been subject to a great amount of transportation development pressure from the megalopolis. The state has only 22, 000 miles of highways. A major super-highway runs north-south but touches the coastal zone only below Bangor as shown in Figure 4. Driving times from major metropolitan centers are also shown on Figure 6. Ninety percent of the re- creational visitors driving to Maine go to the coastal zone. I The New England Regional Commission is currently study- ing the implications and the feasibility of a major east-west highway that would link upstate New York with the northeast coast of Maine. Railroads are used for hauling forest products and certain other manufactured items out of state but there is no passenger service. Railroad tonnage hovers around 15 million tons a year Public Investment Plan, Recreation Component (Cycle 4) Maine State Planning Office, 1971. 29 and shows no signs of significant change. I Major pipelines transport oil from Portland to Montreal and from Searsport to Bangor and Presque Isle as shown in Figure 4. The capacities of these pipelines have more than doubled over the last decade. Canadian demand for oil suggests that this trend will continue. Navigation activity has doubled over the last decade making Portland the second busiest east coast oil port. Most of this increase has been caused by the expansion of the Portland- Montreal pipeline. Tankers with a 45 foot draft can visit Port- land all year round, while the 27-foot draft St. Lawrence Seaway is frozen for several months each winter thereby limiting surface vessel accessibility to Montreal. Maine has seven harbors with a depth in excess of 80 feet -- the only deep water harbors along the east coast.2 During the past year there has been significant out of state interest in developing deep water oil ports at Machiasport, Sears Island in Penobscot Bay and Long Island in Casco Bay. Projected tonnage of waterborne commerce in the Maine coastal zone is shown in Table 4 . Alternative navigation trends related to pipeline and deepwater port development is graphically pre- sented in Figure 7. 1 Maine Pocket Book, Maine Department of Economic Development, August, 19;9. 2 Conversation with Edward Langlois, Chairman, Maine Port Authority, December, 1969. 30 120 110 PRESENT 100 PROJECTED WITH DEEPWATER 90 PORT-1990 SOURCES: WITH PIPELINE 80 DOUBLED IN NERBC STAFF PROJECTION CAPA&TY BASED ON INFORMATION IN THE MAINE POCKET DATA Pool ch BOOK, DEPARTMENT OF Z 70 0 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AUGUST 1969 0000, U- 0 W CONVERSATION WITH CARL 'Oe z 60 -EMERSON,'PORTLANbPIPELINE-- 0 COMPANY WITH PIPELINE LIMITED TO PRESENT 32 MILLION TONS/YEAR 50 - z OF z monow 0 .00 40 le_,o Now MARITIME' IMPORTS- op- 99% 01 L 30 OOOP 20 RAILROAD SHIPMENTS o0of 10 000, MARITIME .0000' E ORTS 0-00' 0000 o L @-@4--+ 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 YEAR NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS LAND AND WATER SHIPMENTS TO AND FROM THE MAINE COAST 7 JANUARY 1971 NO. Table 4 Projected Tonnage of Waterborne Commerce in the Maine Coastal Zone 1952 1970 1980 2000 2020 Total tonnage, million tons per year 13. 5 27.0 35. 7 58.4 94.2 External re- quirements, million tons per year 12. 1 25. 9 34.3 56. 1 90.4 *Assumes continued utilization of existing facilities and an addi- tional deep water site by 1990. Source: NAR Study data Because regional and national dependency upon oil as a basic source of energy is expected to continue to increase, pressure for deepwater port development may also be expected to increase. There are eleven airports along the coastal zone. Bangor International Airport was originally an $83 million U. S. Air Force Base, but is now a civilian airport servicing intercontinental jet flights. Bangor airport refuels trans continental jets and provides a customs clearance function. Changes in any of the highway, railroad, pipeline, naviga- tion, or airport facilities could significantly alter the external pressure on the Maine coast. Climate The Maine coast has a pleasant climate during the summer months, with a mean temperature at Bar Harbor in August of 660F. However, the winter months are cold. Bar Harbor has a mean January temperature of 230F. These climatic conditions restrict social and economic activities and thereby provide a limiting effect on population growth. The mean water temperature at Boothbay Harbor has fluctuated around 480F over the last 32 several decades. Even summer water temperatures of about 60OF are considered to be too cold for prolonged swimming. Meterologists forecast that water temperatures may decrease as much as three degrees over the next decade. I The tempera- iure of the water affects recreational development, fish habitat, and industrial cooling and processing water uses. Location The coast of Maine is in the northeast corner of the United States. This gives it certain locational disadvantages relative to major internal U. S. markets and places it at the end of major transportation routes. The lack of highway and railroad develop- ment reflects this situation. Oil port development interests have recently been attracted to Maine primarily due to the deep water harbors that can take the deep draft super tankers, rather than its location close to major oil markets or sources of supply. The Bangor Airport offers locational advantages in that it is the closest U. S. airport to certain European airports. Perhaps Maine's greatest locational asset is that its remoteness from major markets and population centers has reduced economic development and thereby preserved the natural systems and environmental quality of the region. This valuable asset serves as a basis for present and future economic activity associated with tourism, recreation, and education. Availability of Marketable Resources Water is probably the Maine coast's most important resource. Water using industries such as paper, fish and food processing, chemical, nuclear electrical generation, leather, textile, and oil refining industries, have been attracted to the state's abundant cold waters. The land adjacent to this water resource is only lightly used.. There is an average of five acres per resident, very little industrialization, very little farming, and of the 139 towns only nine have a population over 10, 000. Much of the land between the towns is held in large undeveloped parcels. Although this has never been regarded as a resource rich area in the past, the availability and scenic quality of this uncommitted land and water resource acts as a magnet that is beginning to pull the crowds and industries of the megalopolis to it. The nature of the control over this resource will affect both the nature and the intensity of future external pressures. 1 Conversation with Brad Sterl, Maine Sea and Shore Fisheries concerning the findings of Robert Dow, Maine Sea and Shore Fisheries and Dr. Willet of M. I. T. 33 W 1 @Aw 77!rTr7,, Mir R!-45E A, 4@ b, 77"1 ,I u Girl on Sandy Beach Photo by Stephen Nichols 34 ENVIRONMENTAL QUA LITY AND RECREATION The environmental quality of the Maine coastal zone and the recreational satisfaction it provides is the coastal zone's most important attribute. Recreation contributes more to the Maine econo my than any other coastal activity. 1 Because 85 percent of this activity is generated by visitors to Maine, and because there is great potential for working with the coastal landscape to draw an increasing number of recreational visitors, environmental quality and recreation represent the most im- portant regional and national value of the Maine coast. Regional and National Demand for Environmental Quality and Recreation To understand regional and national pressures for recrea- tion in Maine, it is useful to look at several characteristics of the northeastern megalopolis from which the greatest portion of this pressure originates. The northeastern megalopolis is characterized by general affluence, uniformity of economic development, and complexity of social organization. These char aeteri stic s cause the population to periodically seek. re- creation in an environment that contrasts markedly with the megalopolis. The frequency of this phenomenon may be judged from the weekend spectacle of urban superhighways jammed with cars crawling bumper to bumper out of the city toward the beaches, lakes, and mountains. The dimension of this phenomenon may be seenin the national statistics on national park visitors that show an absolute increase from 72, 300, 000 in 1960 to 164, 000, 000 in 1969 for arelative increase of 125 percent. 2 Driving times between major northeastern metropolitan centers and areas with significant landscape values are shown on Figure 8. This figure indicates that within the northeastern megalopolis, the predominance of high quality landscape is con- centrated within Maine and New Hampshire and that these areas are within reasonable driving distance from major metropolitan areas. IMaine Pocket Data Book, 1969, Maine Department of Economic Development, 1970; and Public Investment Plan, Re- creation Componant, Cycle 4, Maine State Planning Office, 1971. 2 National Park Service Public Information Office, Phila- delphis, Pennsylvania. 35 SOURCE NORTH ATLANTIC WATER RESOURCES STUDY .. ........ STUDY 0 F VISUA L AN D CU LTU RA L ENVI RON ME NT ... ... .... .......... ........ . ......... ). RESEARCH PLANNING AND DESIGN ASSOCIATES AMHERST, MASSACHUSETTS, SEPTEMBER 1970 . .. ........ .. ......... 5 HRS 5 HRS . . . . . . . . . . ................ 2f HRS ... ...... . ..... . i HR I HR .......... ........... . X I HR 5 HRS .............. ... .... .... .............. . ........ HR LEGEND ....... ...... I HR QUALITY RANKING HIGH EDIAL LOW 2 HRS 2 UNCLASSIFIED (ALL CITY UNITS -COASTLINE) COMPOSITE QUALITY LANDSCAPE AREAS I LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE 2 CONNECTICUT RIVER 3 LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ..... .. . . . ... NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AREA .......... 5 MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY 6 SOUTHERN CATSKILL- POCONOS AREA 7 GREAT VALLEY-BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN AREA 8 COASTLINE- MAINE TO VIRGINIA k - - - DRIVING TIMES FROM MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION LANDSCAPE QUALITY & DRIVING TIME FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS FROM MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS 8 JANUARY 1971 IN THE NORTHEASTERN MEGALOPOLIS NO . The out of state coastal recreation public is estimated to have spent 12 million visitor days in the coastal zone in 1969, 1 and this figure is increasing at the annual rate of 8 percent. 2 The extent of seasonal non-resident population increase for each coastal town is illustrated in Figure 9. The data upon which this figure is based are preliminary estimates which have not been confirmed through a census. Nevertheless, this in- formation may serve to show the relative degree of increase for each town. Appendix A presents the absolute increase Of t4e seasonal non-resident who owns property in Maine and vacations there for a month or more, and the tourist-vacationer who occupies public accommodations for a period of less than a month. The first group, the seasonal non-resident, spent about 8. 4 million visitor days in Maine in 1969. Although recreational development trends would tend to indicate this population is increasing, there is no reliable data available to corroborate these increases. Vacation homes comprise about 20 percent of the total coastal homes (33, 012 seasonal homes versus 179, 973 total homes in 1969). 3 With a few exceptions, there has not yet been significant pressure for second home development on lands oi high natural values. However, these exceptions are significant. They include about 20 lineal miles of shoreline be- tween Portland and Kittery. Here non-residents have clustered small vacation cottages along the shoreline. These clusters substitute a view of crowded vacation homes for a view of the natural coastline. A recent report noted that the same type of development is beginning to occur further east: INERBC Staff estimates based on Public Investment Plan, Recreation Component (Cycle 4), Maine State Planning Office, 1971 and Maine Coastal Development Plan, Phase 1 Report, Maine State Planning Office, 1970; and Northern New England Vacation Home Study 1966 Department of the Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, 1967. 12 million visitor days is cal- culated: 33, 000 seasonal homes times 255 visitor days (Table 5) plus 3. 6 million public and private recreation area visitor days. 2ibid., Public Investment Plan. 3ibid. 37 p oa 3 co . .... ..... I-E .r 4@ rl ......... . rl LEGEND PERCENT SEASONAL POPULATION INCREASE OVER PERMANENT POPULATION 250+ 50-249 0-49 SOURCE: MAINE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN, PHASE 1 REPORT,MAINE STATE PLANNING OFFICE,1971 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION SEASONAL POPULATION PRESSURES IN FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS MUNICIPALITIES OF THE STATE OF MAINE 9 JANUARY 1971 COASTAL ZONE NO. "The coastal region stretching from Portland to Acadia National Park is rapidly becoming the summer habitat of thousands of out-of-state residents. According to local reports most of the coastal area is owned by such people. A 1966 study indicated that a vacation home in Maine re- ceives less usage than its counterpart in New Hampshire and Vermont. Table 5 illustrates this comparison. Table 5 Average Vacation Home Seasonal Usage in Visitor Days 1966 Northern New New England Maine Hampshire Vermont Days in summer 224.8 199.7 247. Z ZZ9. 4 Days in fall 38. Z Z8. 8 45.0 4Z. 0 Days in winter 10.2 3.1 14.9 13.6 Days in spring 31.6 24.1 36.9 34.6 Annual use 304.8 255.17 344.10 319. 6 Source: Northern New England Vacation Home Study, 1966, U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recrea- tion, 1966. 1 National Estuary..Study, Department of the Interior, Bureau of Sports Fi-sheries and Wildlife, 1970. 39 Vacation homes in New England are estimated to have in- creased at the rate of 2. 7 percent per year between 1956 and 1966. 1 No estimate is available for Maine but there are major second home developments planned for many coastal areas of Maine including Roque Bluffs, Frenchman's Bay, Englishman's Bay, and Swans Island. The tourist -vacation group, spent about 3. 6 million visi- tors days in the coastal zone in 1969.?- Of this group, those who visited state and national public parks increased 85 percent from 1, 655, 351 in 1960 to 3, 069, 522 in 1969. 3 Of this three million total, 87 percent or 2. 7 million is estimated to be out- of -state demand, and 55 percent or 1. 7 million is estimated to be regional demand originating within the other New England states. 4 Visitors to Acadia National Park have increased 53 percent (1, 520, 000 in 1960 to 2, Z30, 000 in 1969) while visitors to state parks in general increased 6ZO percent (135, 000 to 841, 000). 5 The absolute amount of increase is comparable for the two park categories (708, 900 national park versus 705, 700 state park). 6 When the rate of increase of visitors to Acadia National Park is compared with the rate of increase of visitors to all national parks, it is evident that Acadia's 53 percent rate of increase is substantially below the national level of 125 per-cent. This relation is portrayed graphically in Figure 10. I Northern New England Vacation Home Study - 196,6, U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, 1966. Z Calculated from the data in Table 7 by estimating that 75 percent of the commercial rooms are used by out-of-staters, and that 85 percent of the other five categories are used by out- of-staters. 3 Public Investment Plan, Recreation Component, Cycle 4, Maine State Planning Office, 1971. 4 Ibid 5 Ibid 6 Ibid 40 I @k z m m z co G) 0 r- RECREATION ACTIVITY-Ml LLIONS OF VISITOR DAYS cn > 00 (n Do w w > Z z > m cn VISITS TO NATIONAL PARKS .e, cp > > %J ........... ........ C z -40 ....... ....... cc ...... ......................... .-j 0 ch cuh 0 z > CA 0-0 - 1 0-0 > > r- o 2 n > z I > q m z 0 > > m VISITS TO NATIONAL PARKS 0 0 -A, 02 M > > 0 .. ..... ........ .......... ............ ........ ........ ... .... ........................ . ..... .... co ............. .. .... .................. .... .. 0 > Z > > 0 0:0. o > > z 0 > > 0 2 r- -, > r- Z z X CIOz z Out of state recreation demand for visits to public parks has been projected at three alternate levels. Table 6 and Figure I I present these projections. The 27. 5 percent per decade level (Alternate A) approximates the NAR rate. The 40 percent per decade (Alternate B) is slightly under the rate of increase for Acadia National Park. The 80 percent per decade (Alternate Q is well below the national level of 125 percent for total visitors to national parks, but is roughly equal to the rate of increase for all state and national Maine coastal zone parks. The highest projection is reasonable when one considers the effects of possible future transportation improvements and patterns of leisure time and recreation. Table 6 Comparative Estimates of Regional and National Demand at Public Recreation Areas in the Maine Coastal Zone (millions of visitor days) 1960 1969 1980 2000 2020 Alternate A 1.7 3.0 4.2 6 11 Alternate B 1@7 3.0 4.7 10 22 Alternate C 1.7 3.0 7.0 33 155 Sources: NERBC Staff estimates based on NAR Study, and Public Investment Plan, Recreation Component, Cycle 4, Maine State Planning Office, 1971. As a further indication of regional and national demand for recreation it is useful to consider the use of overnight accommodations. The following table indicates that there are overnight accommodations for about 93, 339 persons along the Maine coast at any one time, and that they were used by 4. 9 million overnight users in 1968. It is estimated that these accommodations have a high level of occupancy of about 63 percent during the busy 42 160 150 SOURCE: NERBC STAFF ADAPTATION OF NAR DATA AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT PLAN, RECREATION 140 COMPONENT (CYCLE 4), MAINE STATE PLANNING OFFICE, 1971 130 120 110 0 100 LL 0 0 coo z 0 RATE- 80 t > 70 P: L) z 0 0 Lu 50. Lu 40 30 20 ACAPIA 10 n 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7020 YEARS NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION PROJECTED VISITORS TO PUBLIC RECREATION FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS AREAS IN THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE JANUARY 1971 NO. months of July and August. I If we assume that 75 percent of the users of commercial rooms were out-of-state recreators, and that 85 percent of the other five categories of recreators shown in Table 7 were from out of state then there were 3. 6 million out of state recreational visitors to the coastal zone. This com- pares favorably with the previous estimate of the 3 million visitors to public parks and leaves 600, 000 visitors who visited only private recreation facilities. Table 7 Capacity and Use of Overnight Accommodations Along the Maine Coastal Zone Number of Accommoda- Capacity, Use, Category tions persons visitor-days Public c-ampgrounds 850 3,400 292,000 Commercial rooms 743 61,248 2,449,000 Youth camps 189 19,769 870,000 Trailer courts 172 3,873 542,000 Tenting grounds 75 3,091 433,000 Private Camp grounds 35 1,958 274,000 93,339 4,860,000 Source: Public Investment Plan, Recreation Componant Cycle 4, Maine State Planning Office, 1,971. The non-resident sport fisherman and hunter is increasing the pressure on the fish and wildlife resources of Maine. In 1962, non-residents purchased 28 percent (103, 394) of the total NERBC Staff calculation based upon data in Table 7. 44 fishing and hunting licenses throughout the state amounting to a state revenue of $1 million; while by 1968 non-residents pur- chased 35 percent (122, 997) of the total licenses for a revenue of $1. 5 million. I Statewide non-resident demand for fishing licenses grew at an annual rate of I percent for the @period 1962- 1968. However, in 1967-1968 the demand increased 10 percent NERBC staff estimates that coastal non-resident fisherman comprise 22 percent of the total. These figures reflect only fresh water fishing demand since salt water fishing does not require a license. Restoration of the Atlantic Sea Salmon to the Penobscot River should significantly increase non-resident fishing demand in the coastal area. The dramatic 1967-68 increase may already anticipate this potentiality. Opening the Penobscot salmon run is likely to increase fishing demand at the existing salmon runs on the Narraguagus, Pleasant, and Machias rivers. To compare alternate possibilities, coastal n@on-resident demand has been projected in Table 8 at both the historic I percent level (Alternate A) and at a rate equal to the growth rate of recreation visitors of 8 percent per year (Alternate B). Table 8 Estimated Future Demand lor Non-Resident Sport Fishing in the Maine Coastal Zone 1962 1968 1980 2000 2020 Non-resident freshwater fishermen Alt. A 22,650 26,250 44,000 79,000 142,000 Alt. B 22,650 26,250 66,600 3o6,ooo 1,430,000 Source: NERBC Staff estimates based on Maine Pocket Book, 1969, Maine Department of Economic De ment, 1970. 1Maine Pocket Data Book, 1969, Maine Department of Economic Development, 1970. 45 Factors influencing demand for use of pleasure craft in- clude the nature of island and shoreline recreation development, transportation patterns, and regional and national affluence. While recreational boating is scattered along the coast on both freshwater lakes and salt water coves, coastal areas receiving particularly heavy boating usage are Wells, Kittery, Kennebunk- port, Boothbay Harbor, Brunswick, Freeport, Casco Bay, Penob- scot Bay, and Mt. Desert Island. 1 Table 9 Estimated Pleasure Craft Within the Maine Coastal Zone 1970 1980 2000 2020 Alternate A Registered boats 54,800 71,600 86,000 104,000 All boats 56, 200 107, 000 185,000 328,ooo Alternate B Registered boats 12,000 31,000 Z07,000 1,400,000 All boats 24,000 61,000 414, 000 2, 800, 000 Source: NAR Study, and Maine Bureau of Water Craft Registration & Safety. The demand for water contact sports along the Maine coastal zone is most intense along the southern Maine coastal sand beaches and at scattered lakes. The cold water temperatures and rocky shoreline severely restrict swimming demands at other coastal locations. The magnitude of water contact activity demand for the coastal zone has not been documented. I Conversation with Mr. Robert Johnson, Maine Bureau of Water Craft Regulation and Safety, January, 1971. 46 The NAR Study has projected fishing and hunting demand at a level of 4 percent for the next decade and then at 1-2 percent for the period from 1980 to 2020. It is useful to consider the possibility of a higher 8 percent growth rate which would reflect the effects of increased sport fishing opportunities created by pollution control, aquaculture developments, more leisure time, and improved public access to fishing areas. Recreational boating is a popular coastal activity in Maine. There are 12, 000 boats of 10 horsepower or larger, and probably an equal number unregistered (smaller than 10 horsepower) and non-powered pleasure craft. I This is significantly lower than the NAR Study estimate of 54, 800 registered boats. State data indicates that demand for pleasure craft has grown at the rate of 10 percent per year over the last decade. This varies substantially from the national 6 percent growth rate 1 and from the level used by the NAR Study for Maine which assumed a 2. 5 percent annual growth rate. Table 9 projects growth rates at the NAR Study level (Alternate A) and at the state historic level (Alternate B). No information is available on the percentage of out of state ownership or on the numbers of boats visiting Maine from other areas, but a visual April to October check of any coastal yacht basin will reveal that there are many out of state boats cruising the Maine coast. Many of the seasonal non-residents have boats registered in Maine. 1 Statewide there are 39,600 registered pleasure craft. It is estimated there are an equal number of non-registered pleasure craft. There are 4,400 commercial craft all of which are esti- mated to be in the Coastal Zone. (From a conversation with Robert Johnson, State of Maine, Bureau of Water Craft Registra- tion and Safetyj Jan. 1971). Tourism and Recreation, A. D. Little, October 1966. Estimated are for 1951-65 period. 47 Environmental Quality and Recreational Facilities Maine's greatest coastal asset from the standpoint of recreation is its coastal landscape. This landscape is classi- fied as forest-wilderness from the Canadian border to Acadia National Park, and as forest-town from Acadia to the New Hampshire Border. 1 Areas of special environmental value are shown in Figure 12. The towns are small, only 19 out of 139 being over 5, 000 population. 2 The largest city is Portland with a population that has declined from 72, 000 in 1960 to 65, 000 in 1970. 3 The coastal landscape encloses numerous fresh water lakes and salt water coves within a great variety of steep hills, peninsulas, and dramatic headlands as shown in Figure 13. The steep hills in the vicinity of the mouth of the Penobscot River and within Mount Sesert Island add particular drama to the central portion of the long coastline as shown in Figure 14. About 929 square miles or 27 percent of the coastal zone landscape is subject to some form of landscape protection. Of this, only 60, 000 acres or 3 percent is preserved landscape. Preserved landscape includes Acadia National Park, Moosehorn and Rachel Carson Wildlife Refuges, and the state park and wild- life areas including Camden Hills State Park and the Scarboro Marsh. The remaining protected landscape is subject to zoning controls in 32 out of the 139 towns. These 32 towns have zoned 25 percent of the total landscape. To protect the environmental quality of this landscape, Maine is administering legislation that seeks to ensure that economic development, including second home sub-divisions, will be compatible with environmental values. This is important because numerous second home real estate developments are being planned for shoreline and other ecologically fragile and environ- mentally valuable areas. Table 10 shows estimates of the acreage which should be subject to protection if the visual and cultural values of the Maine Coast are to be maintained. NAR Study. 2Maine Coastal Development Plan, Phase I Report, Maine State Planning Office, 1970. 3U.S. Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce, 1971. 48 LEGEND MAJOR EXISTING PRESERVED NATURAL AREAS PRESERVE UNIQUE NATURAL AREAS PROTECT COMPOSITE LANDSCAPES PROTECT QUALITY LANDSCAPES u SOURCE NORTH ATLANTIC WATER RESOURCES STUDY STUDY OF VISUAL AND CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH PLANNING AND DESIGN ASSOCIATES AMHERST, MASSACHUSETTS, SEPTEMBER 1970 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 4 AREAS FOR SPECIAL ENVIRONMENTAL 12 utmkft PROTECTION IN THE STATE OF MAINE NERHC JANUARY 1971 NO. 7W SOURCE: NORTH ATLANTIC WATER RESOURCES STUDY STUDY OF VISUAL AND CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH PLANNING AND DESIGN ASSOCIATES AMHERST, MASSACHUSETTS, SEPTEMBER 1970 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS EASTERN MAINE COASTLINE 13 JANUARY 1971 1801 NO. @V@vvldv%(/ 9A6 C4VVlCCrQa Vva@5 of VAIA "w AV6 svze wvpFlv- ,)VKg it it ,% TOPOGRAPHIC PLAN PERSPECTIVE SOURCE: NORTH ATLANTIC WATER RESOURCES STUDY STUDY OF VISUAL AND CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH PLANNING AND DESIGN ASSOCIATES AMHERST, MASSACHUSETTS, SEPTEMBER 1970 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION PENOBSCOT AREA FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 4 NORTHERN STEEP HILLS staeft 14 JANUARY 1971 KERHC NO. Table 10 Estimated Land Requirements to be Subjected to Landscape Protection in the Maine Coastal Zone 1970 1980 2000 2020 Total requirements, 50 899 1,564 2,118 thousands of acres 75% attributable to 38 670 1,173 1,580 external demand, thousand of acres Source: NERBC Staff adaption of NAR data. Increasingly significant.for landscape values are the 225, 000 acres of Maine's 1, 000 islands. Development pressures, stemming from recreational and commercial navigation interests, second home developments, and industrial site location for oil storage, oil refining, and electrical utilities, threaten island land- s6ape values. The U.S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation has recom- mended that some of the pressure for coastal recreation should be alleviated by establishing a number of national island trusts. I Within Maine, five such island trusts are proposed with the pilot program centering on Casco Bay. Eventually 200, 000 island acres that are now privately owned wouldbe subject to landscape protec- tion through a system of easements and development restrictions, and 6, 000 acres would be in direct ownership. I Islands of America, U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, 1970. Beside the islands of Casco Bay, the report recommends the islands of Sheepscot Bay, Muscongus Bay, Penobscot Bay, and Upper Eastern Coast. 52 The amount of land available for general public recreation is small. Publically owned camp grounds, parks and recreation areas occupy only about 2 percent (40, 000 acres) of the total Maine coastal landscape. At least two thirds of this is in Acadia National Park with the remaining acreage scattered among several state coastal parks. A recent report noted: ''The State of Maine has acquired several seashore parks but these are not sufficient to meet the demands placed on them. While the marine resources values are high, they usually are found in relatively small, localized areas. In some of these, human pollution is a problem. Conservation of these marine resources values is believed to be a state problen-L " 1 A National Park Shoreline Survey in 1955 found that most of the prime coastal recreation areas south of the Penobscot estuary had already been developed. 2 It noted, however, that there were 14 miles of shorelines in the Popham St. , John and Crescent areas that could be acquired for public recreation. Suggestions have arisen from many sources including the Sierra Club, the framework planning work performed by the State of Maine, the NAR Study, and the Islands of America Study of the Bureau of Outdoor Recreation that more public parks be developed along the Maine coast and on the Maine islands. The control over Acadia National Park will soon be extended over 70 islands in the region of Mt. Desert Island. Maine is considern additional parks in the Branch Lake and Roque Bluffs areas. The Sierra Club has suggested the creation of a national seashore in the down east portion of Washington County. 1. National Estuary Study, Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife, Department of the Interior, January, 1970. 2Our Vanishing Shoreline, National Park Service, 1955. 3Conversation with Mr. Lawrence Stuart, Director, Maine Parks and Recreation, January, 1971. 53 These potential public park and recreation needs have been projected in Table 11 which compares a 4 percent annual increase in visitors (Alternate A) with a 10 percent growth rate that approxi- mates the national level (Alternate B). This latter rate assumes that recreation facilities for intensive uses will be developed follow- ing 1980. Therefore, the acreage requirements do not follow a straight line projection. These acreage requirements include land for camping, hiking, and shoreline access for swimming, boating and fishing. Table 7 shows that there are accommodations for only 93, 300 travelers at any one time along the coastal zone. The distribution of these accommodations is such that many popular areas are not able to meet the. seasonal demand for accommoda- tions. 1 Public protection for fish and wildlife resources constitutes only 0. 8 percent of the coastal zone. The federal government, recognizing the regional and national interest in wildlife main- tenance and the ecological relationship of Maine's habitat to the total Atlantic Flyway, has purchased about 7, 700 acres for wild- life refuges and intends to purchase an additional 1, 400 acres.I The state has a similar awareness and has purchased about 9, 800 acres for wildlife refuges. 2 If these acreages are combined with the acreages in federal and state parks, lands that offer a degree of wildlife habitat protection then comprise about 3 percent of the total coastal acreage. Public saltwater swimming is limited to the quarter mile sand beach of Acadia National Park, and to the approximately 25 miles of public beaches between Popham Beach and Kittery. These areas receive capacity crowds during the summer. Cold water temperatures and the dominantly rocky shore limit exten- sive swimming opportunities elsewhere. Fresh water swimming is popular on most of the freshwater lakes in the coastal zone, but public access is limited due to the dominance of privately owned shorelines. Also, the lakes within Acadia National Park serve as water supply reservoirs and the general public is ex- cluded from swimming in these. INERBC Staff experience and discussions with Sheraton Plaza Hotel Staff in Boston. 2Public Investment Plan, Recreation Component (Cycle 4), Maine State Planning Office, 1971. 54 Table I I Comparative Estimates of Public Recreation Land Requirements in the Maine Coastal Zone 1970 1980 2000 2020 Alternate A Visitor growth rate 401, 4 4 Olc Coastal shoreline acres 4,850 7, 150 12,700 Lake shoreline acres 4,150 6,100 10,800 Non-shoreline acres 4,200 6, 150 11,000 including facilities Total acres 42,000 13,100 19,300 34,500 Cumulative total acres 42,000 55, 100 74,400 108,900 Total lineal shoreline 45 66 117 miles of access Alternate B Visitor growth rate 10 O/C 10% 10 a/c Coastal shoreline acres 8,200 20,000 60,000 Lake shoreline acres 7, 100 17,000 51,000 Non-shoreline acres 7,200 17,000 52,000 including facilities Total acres 42,000 22,500 54,000 163,000 Cumulative total acres 42,000 64,500 118,500 281,500 Total lineal shoreline 76 183 550 miles of access Source: NERBC staff adaption of NAR data. 55 Power and Energ Power and energy needs of New England and the north- eastern megalopolis have exerted an important impact on the coast of Maine and are likely to continue to do so in the future. The resource pressures produced by these power and energy needs are likely to significantly influence resource management decision making in the Maine coastal zone. Power Electrical power demands in the United States have been doubling every six to ten years. Forecasts of future electrical usage indicate that this trend is likely to continue unless legal, institutional, or social restraints are placed upon public elect- rical consumption. Past electrical usage and projected future use is presented in Table 12and Figures 15 and 16. Table 12 Estimated Future Regional Power Requirements in the Maine Coastal Zone 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 Estimated Peak demand, mega- watts State of Maine (1) 565 1,003 1,879 3, 529 New England (1) 6,181 11,900 25,100 52,800 Northeastern 27,517 51,230 92,770 164,640 United States (2) NAR Region (3) 115,895 348,200 853,800 Source: (1) A Study of the Electric Power Situation in New England 1970-1990, The New England Regional Commission, September, 1970. (2) Electric Power in the Northeast 1970-1980-1990, The Northeast Regional Advisory Committee of the Federal Power Commission, December 1968. (3) NAR study data. 56 4,000 3,000 Lu z STATE OF MAINE-., uj 13 2,000 cc Lu 3: 0 (L -i 1,000 uj Lu CL Ol- 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 YEAR SOURCE: A STUDY OF THE ELECTRICAL POWER SITUATION IN NEW ENGLAND 1970-1990, THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL COMMISSION, APRIL 1970 NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION PROJECTED FUTURE ELECTRICAL POWER FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS DEMANDS FOR THE STATIi OF MAINE 15 JANUARY 1971 NERBC NO. 100,000 OF 90,000 80,000 NORT,HEASTERN UNITED STATES 70,000 SOURCE: I I ELECTRIC POWER IN THE NORTH- EAST 1970-1980-1990 PREPARED 60,000 BY THE NORTHEAST REGIONAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE OF THE F.P.C., DECEMBER 1968 50,000- Lu 2 40,000 z Lu 13 cc LLJ ;l' 30,000 0 CL -i uj -i LLI 20,000 Lu NEW ENGLAND 1 11 SOURCE: I I A STUDY OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SITUATION IN NEW ENGLAND 1970-1990, THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL COMMISSION, APRIL 1970 10,000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2;20 YEAR NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION PROJECTED FUTURE REGIONAL FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 16 ELECTRICAL POWER DEMANDS JANUARY 1971 NERBC NO. Power requirements in New England are expected to in- crease more than four times in the next 20 years. The historical growth rate in New England has been almost 7 percent annually and is increasing each year. I Nuclear power facilities are slated to be a major element of a more economical and reliable future power system for the region. These plants require large amounts of cooling water for their operation. Concurrently with the growing power demands have come increasing complexities in the siting of power generation facilities. Social, environmental, economic, political, and legal considera- tions pose special problems in the site selection of a power gene- rating facility. A recent stud 2 indicates that, by 1990, 70 percent of the y electrical power produced in New England will be generated by nuclear power plants. The report points to the economic benefits of such a development. Nuclear power plants, however, are relatively inefficient in terms of heat utilization and generally are of large size requiring significant quantities of cooling water. Approximately 0. 7 to 1. 0 million gallons of water per day are required for each megawatt of electrical energy produced. The water used for cooling purposes is raised approximately 20 to 30OF in the process. Cooling towers provide an alternative but less economical method of cooling; they are not technically feasible with saline waters, however, the use of cooling towers could increase . power costs up to five percent above once through cooling water use. The report further notes that environmental considerations must be paramount in the design and siting of future power plants and transmission linespand suggests that the waste heat must be used or managed in a manner that will not be excessively disrup- tive to the' area ecology. The report concludes that New England has advantages over most sections of the country for waste heat disposal because its abundant cold water affords a unique opportunity to dispose of the excess heat from large generating plants without disturbing the ecological balance. IA Study of the Electric Power Situation in New England 1970-1990, New England Regional Commission, September 1970. 2Ibid. 59 The Maine coast with its cold waters (600 F or lower during the summer) and remote locations offers special advantages for the location of thermal power plants. The Wiscasset nuclear plant is the first major power plant now under construction in the state. This facility will use about 600 mgd of water and will generate 830 MW. Attempts will likely be made to generate large blocks of electrical energy along the Maine coast for export out of the state to service the megalopolitan areas to the south. Alternative projected electrical power generation along the Maine coast and associated cooling water requirements are presented in Tables 13 & 14 and are shown graphically in Figure 17. The present maximum capacity of a power plant is about 1, 000 MW. Table 13 Estimated Future Power Generation in the Maine Coastal Zone 1968 1970 1980 2000 2020 Total electric generation capacity, meg- awatts (1) 200 200 2, 300 17,000 41,600 21,500 60,000 Total cool - ing water re- 150 150 3,000 13, 500 25,000 quirements, "' 19,000 45,000 million gallons pe r day (2) *Water requirements are based upon once through cooling wate r use. Source:(l) NERBC staff adaption of NAR study data, (2) NERBC staff estimates. 60 Table 14 Estimated Future Power Generation in the Maine Coastal Zone 1968 1970 1976 1983 1990 Total electric - generation 200 200 1,030 2,430 3,430 capacity, mega- awatts Source: A Study of Electric Power Situation in New England 1970-1990, The New England Re- gional Commission, September 1970. Siting and land requirements for power plants are an additional important consideration. At present, the Wiscasset plant requires about 200 acres of land for siting including a buffer zone. Projections indicate a requirement for additional plants to occupy 400 acres by 1980, 1200 acres by 2000 and 7, 500 acres by 2020. This estimate anticipates 20 to 30 power facility sites in the state by the year 2020. A broad analysis of the social, environmental, economic and political problems of thermal power plant siting was de- veloped in a report titled Considerations Affecting Steam Power Plant Site Selection prepared by The (federal) Energy Policy Staff of Office Science and Technology in December of 1968. Using this report as a basis for its action the New England River Basins Commission has adopted the following policy statement on thermal power plant siting in New England. 61 100,000 POWER GENERATION SOURCE:_l I NERBC STAFF ADAP@ATION ma, OF NAR DATA a ............ vw -0- COOLING WATER 10,000 REQUIREMENTS* ui CL C (4 (A SOU R E z 0 NERBC STAFF ADAPTATION <- _j OF NAR DATA _j uj Z 0 Z _j 0 LLJz z LLJ (D UJ LLI2 POWER GENERATION SOURCE: 0 UJ A STUDY OF ELECTRIC fL CC 1,000 POWER SITUATION IN cc N EW E N G LA N D, 1970-1990, ui THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL- COMMISSION, SEPT., 1970 COOLING W E@R REQUIREMENTS ARE BASED UPON ONCE THROUGH COOLING WATER SYSTEM lool I I - I I I I - I I i 1 1 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR NEW ENGLAND RIVER BASINS COMMISSION POSSIBLE FUTURE ELECTRICAL POWER FIG. BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS GENERATION IN THE MAINE COASTAL ZONE & 17 JANUARY 1971 NERBt ASSOCIATEWCOO LING WATER REQUIREMENTS NO. Statement on Thermal Power Plant Siting Adopted by the New England River Basins Commission February 13, 1969 Definition of Problem Peak electrical power demand in New England is approximately 12, 000 rnegawatts (MW) at the present time. By 1980 the demand is expected to approach 20, 000 MW and by the year 2000, 70, 000 MW may be required. Current trends in New Eng- land power development indicate that a major block of the baseload power will be g-enerated by nuclear fueled power plants. The remainder would be fossil fueled. Three significant constraints related to these facilities are that (1) the plants must be of high capacity (usually nuclear plant capacities exceed 500 MW.) in order to be economically feasible, (2) large quantities of waste heat must be dissipated to a coolant, usually water, and (3) exhaust gases may be toxic. Approximately one million gallons per day of cooling water are required per MW of power plant capacity. Several unresolved environmental factors are associated with the siting of these power plants. These factors include: (1) the aesthetic aspects of siting adjacent to major bodies of water, (2) the eco- logical effects of thermal and nuclear waste disposal and (3) the health effects of toxic air pollutants. In addition to the numerous fossil fuel thermal plants, seven using nuclear fuel have been completed, are under construction or firmly proposed in New England. Land acquisition for an additional plant has been publicly announced. By 1980 three additional plants will be required, and by the year ZOOO the total for New England may approach 18. The Commission considers siting of thermal power plants to be an urgent issue. 63 Factors Affecting Siting The Commission recognizes the need for thermal power generating facilities in New England and the several unresolved environmental issues associated with the siting of these facilities. Recently, the Energy Policy Staff, Office of Science and Technology in co- operation with the Atomic Energy Commission, Depart- ment of Health, Education and Welfare, Department of Interior, Federal Power Commission, Rural Electrifi- cation Administration and Tennessee Valley Authority published a report entitled Considerations Affecting Steam Power Plant Site Selection. Page VIII of that report lists 11 factors to be considered in thermal power plant siting. The remainder of the report sub- stantiates these factors. The factors are as follows: 1. Comply with the safety criteria for nuclear plants as prescribed by AEC. 2. Comply with air pollution criteria and stan- dards as established by the States and the National Air Pollution Control Administra- tion of HEW. 3. Comply with the water quality standards for thermal effects as established by the States and the Federal Water Pollution Control Administration of the Department of the In- terior. 4. Develop the opportunities for public recrea- tion at plant sites and avoid impairing exist- ing recreational areas. 5. Consider aesthetic, values and give adequate attention to the appearance of power plant facilities and associated transmission lines. 6. Recognize the rural development considera- tions in plant siting. 7. Consider the siting and lead-time require- ments for reliability of service. 64 8. Consider the impact on defense prepared- ness of particular sites and power plant capacities. 9. Consider the routing of associated trans- mission lines and the problems of rights- of -way at various alternative plant loca- tions. 10. Assure that the plant will be of sufficient size to meet regional loads including mutually agreeable arrangements for meeting thebulk power needs of the small utilities. 11. Consider prospects for combining power plants with other purposes such as desalt- ing plants, industrial centers, and even new cities. The Power and Environment Committee of the New England River Basins Commission hasbeen intensively studying the subject of thermal plant siting. The findings of the committee are consistent with the comments on environmental factors of the study of the U.S. Energy Policy Staff. The Commis sion urges that all public and private organizations which propose, evaluate or approve thermal power plants consider those factors which relate to use of or effects on water and related land resources. Special attention shouldbe given to thermal pollution--to more precise determination of thermal effects, and to careful implementation of protective criteria in State and Federal water quality standards programs. The Commission notes that thermal plant siting factors should include compliance with State as well as Federal criteria. It is the judgment of the Commission that exist- ing procedures for public agency review and approval of thermal power plant construction projects do not provide for adequate consideration of the effects of such power plants on water and related land resources. The Commission will consider and recommend ways 65 of improving procedures related to water and related land resources, and may offer recommendations for improvement of State and Federal review and approval of programs. The Commission will, within existing authority, work informally during the months ahead to help evaluate sites proposed for early development from the standpoint of water and related land use. The Commission believes that a special region wide study of future sites from this standpoint is urgently needed, and will work with appropriate public and private institutions to attempt to get such a study underway. 66 Energy The major source of energy for New England and the north- eastern United States is petroleum. The importation of oil and petroleum products has had a significant role in shaping the resource use of several areas along the Maine coast including Portland and Searsport. Based on past trends and current activities, develop- ment relating to oil importation will exert significant pressures on the maine coastal zone in the future. Table 15 indicates the past trend of oil imports to the Maine coast. These trends suggest that oil imports have more than doubled in an eight-year period. Table 15 Past Trends in Oil Imports to the Maine Coastal Zone 1960 1965 1968 Total tonnage, million tons 16.3 19.1 27.2 per year Source: Maine Port Authority Estimates by the New England Fuel Institute indicate that the consumption of fuel in New England will increase approximately 4 percent annually. Approximately 10 percentl of the oil currently consumed in New England is used by the electrical power industry. Electric generation demands for oil in the Northeastern United States are shown in Table 16 which indicates a substantial reduction in the oil requiremnts of the power industry over the next two decades. 1Bureau of Mines. 67 Table 16 Projected Electric Generation Demands for Oil in the Northeastern United States 1966, 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Electrical energy generated by oil, 43.4 43.8 36.5 30.1 26.0 23.6 billion kilowatt hour s Source: Electrical Power in the Northeast 1970-1980-1990, The Northeast Regional Advisory Committee to the Federal Power Commission, December 2, 1968. Eighty to ninety percent of the oil importedis used outside of Maine. Significant factors in determining quantity of petroleum imports are the oil pipelines from Portland to Montreal, and Sears- port to Bangor. Approximately 80 percent of the 26 million tons of oil imported to Portland is pumped to Montreal via the pipeline. During the winter months when the St. Lawrence Seaway is frozen and closed to tanker traffic, this pipeline serves as a major energy source. In addition much larger tankers can dock at Portland than can navigate to Montreal. The future possible pressures for additional petroleum im- portation and refining facilities along the Maine coast are real but dependent on many variables. Certainly the deep water harbor areas of the coast including Machiasport, Sears Island in Penobscot Bay and Long Island in Casco. Bay offer special attractions for oil importation. On the other hand, major questions c-oncerning environ- mental control, oil import quotas, free trade zone designation, Alaska oil development and Canadian petroleum development will continue to exert significant influence on the public-private decision making process for development of these ports. 68 HE 5 u T U LN in" k6 z @ No; %V v imp pa Sll 10 Wells Harbor Breakwater 69 Resource Conversion and Manufacturing The northeastern United States has traditionally not looked towards the Maine coastal zone for major resource conversion or manufacturing activities. The region has, in general, exerted only light pressures on Maine's coastal resources in this regard. The major economic activities that have converted Maine coastal resources into urban demand commodities have principally been the food and fiber industries. The state's principal industrial element, pulp and paper, transforms forest resources into paper products. About 20 percent of the pulp and paper industry in the state is located in the coastal zone. I The food processing industry, principally poultry and seafoods, also constitutes an important industrial activity in the coastal zone. The poultry industry uses large amounts of fresh water and the seafood processing industry uses great quantities of saline waters. These industries have, therefore, had an important impact on water quality since their waste production has deteriorated signi- ficant areas of the coastal zone. Present developmental interests along the Maine coast in- clude more intensive commercial fishing, the initiation of a more expansive practice of aquaculture, oil or mineral extraction, and bulk shipping and processing facilities associated with deep water ports. The future viability of these interests is dependent on mul- tiple social, economic, environmental, legal and institutional variables, and forecasts would, therefore, be highly speculative. Resource conversion and manufacturing can induce severe use conflicts in the coastal zone both in terms of land requirements and environmental stress. The scale and intensity of these economic activities will largely dictate the degree of conflict. Commercial Fisheries The fisheries resources of the Maine coast includes com- mercial fishing, shell fishing, lobster trapping, bloodworm harvest- ing and the special national consideration of anadromous fisheries (Atlantic salmon). Fisheries farming of the ocean or aquaculture has recently achieved significance.. Well over 80 percent of the INERBC sta ff estimates based upon Lockwood's Directory of the Paper and Allied Trades, Lockwood Publishing Co. , 1967. 70 requiremEpts for these activities are generated by out-of-state demands. For the last decade, the commercial value of Maine's fish catch has been 5 percent of the national total. The amount and value of the fish catch fluctuates markedly from year to year de- pending on both the abundance of marine fisheries and on market conditions. Generally, supply and demand, are increasing at the rate of 5 percent per year. The landed value of 1968 was $25 million which equals an economic value to Maine of $74 million. Lobster has accounted for 60 percent of this catch, and while bloodworms and shrimp each occupy only 6 percent of the total, they show the fastest growth rate. Shrimp nationally comprise 55 percent of the value of the total fish consumed by Americans, but the Maine catch occupies only 0. 5 percent of this total.2Never- theless, commercial fishing is an important element in Maine's economy with Maine being the fifth largest employer of commercial fishermen among the fourteen Atlantic coastal states. 3 Coastal zone pollution is a severe problem in terms of commercial clam production in that about 71, 000 acres of shell- fhish beds are closed to commercial and recreational harvesting due to health restrictions stemming from pollution. These closings represent an economic loss equal to $2 million. 4 Pressure on Maine's fisheries habitat until recently has not been great; less than I percent of the state's coastal wetlands between 1954-1964 were destroyed due to dredging, filling, or other activities. 5 A recent study indicates that Maine's 29, 000 acres of wetlands and undesignated acres of oepn shoal estuaries rank twelfth in size among the fourteen Atlantic seaboard states. 6 Maine State Planning Office, 2 Aquaculture: The Determinants of Success,-The Research Institute of the GWf of Maine, 1970. 3 Conversation with Marvin Boussu, National Marine Fish- eries Service, Gloucester, Mass. 4Maine Sea and Shore Fisheries. 5Supplementary Report on the Coastal Wetlands InventoLy of Maine, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, June 1965. @6 A Plan for the Marine Resources of the Atlantic Coastal Z one, American Geographic Society, 1969. 71 Maine has purchased 2200 acres of the Scarboro Marsh below Portland along with 500 acres by Merrymeeting Bay, and other marshes on the Pleasant River near Addison. The federal government has purchased about 1,700 acres and is acquiring the remaining acreage of the approximately 2,400 acre boundary of the extended Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge between Kit- tery and Cape Elizabeth. Attempts to regulate the filling of coastal marshlands by the state has met with legal difficulties. I The state is also engaged in a major effort to restore the Atlantic salmon to the Penobscot River. Salmon runs are currently maintained in the Machias, Narraguagus, and Pleasant Rivers. Pollution and dams currently hamper efforts for expeditious com- pletion of the program, however, the National Anadromous Fish- eries Restoration Act provides a helpful framework for accelera- tion of the effort. Industrial Self-supplied Processing and Cooling Water Water develo-ped and used in the coastal zone by industry includes surface and groundwater sources, and saline and fresh water. Well over 80 percent of this water is withdrawn from rivers or the ocean. The pulp and paper industry i s the principal water user in the coastal zone with an estimated use in 1965 of 83 mgd. On a statewide basis, this industry accounts for almost 90 percent of the industrial water used. 1 A judgement may be made that this is also true in the coastal zone. Food processing including fisheries products represents an important segment of industrial water use although the quantities of water being used are minor in comparison to the water used for pulp and paper products. Between 1965 and 1969 the shrimp catch along the Maine coast doubled each year (2 million to 24 million pounds). This increased production brought with it a sharp increase in saline water used for processing. A major consideration for industrial water use in the Maine 1NERBC staff estimates based on Water Use in Manufacturing, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 1966. 72 coastal zone is the degraded water quality along many areas of the ocean shoreline and the major rivers. Major areas of industrial water use in the coastal zone are Saco, Topsham, Westbrook, Bel- fast and Bucksport. The major factors which will affect future industrial water use will be the availability of adequate quality fresh and saline water, the waste treatment requirements, and the nature of the industry. Stringent waste treatment requirements will induce reduced water usage by current and future industries. Estimated future industrial water requirements for the Maine coastal zone are shown in Table 17. Industrial self-supplied water has 'been increasing approximately 60 percent per decade.I This growth rate will probably be reduced to 30 percent per decade as a result of waste treatment requirements. Table 17 Estimated Future Requirements for Industrial Self-supplied Processing and Cooling Water in the Maine Coastal Zone 1965 1970 1980 2000 2020 Total estimated requirements, million gallons per day 70 120 160 270 455 Source: NERBC staff estimates based on Estimated Use of Water in the United States 1960 & 1965, U. S. Geological Survey. External water demands are estimated to represent 85 percent of the total estimated requirements. Future i'ndustrial water use along the coast will be dependent to a large extent on the type of industry which may locate in the zone. As an example, oil refining, aluminum refining and pulp and paper processing are heavy water using industries. Electronics manufacture and printing are examples of light water using industries. I Estimated Use of Water in the United States, 1965, U.S. Geological Survey, 1966. 73 Minerals Minerals of significance in the Maine coastal zone include sand, gravel, oil and gas. Development of either of these re- sources would have important national, regional and local implica- tions. Traditionally, Maine's coastal mineral resources develop- ment has consisted of quarrying for building rock for export out of state, limestone for transformation into cement and fertilizer, and sand and gravel. Copper, lead, zinc, gold, silver, molybdenite, mica, serpentine and grinding pebbles have been produced in the past in the Maine coastal zone. Although the Maine coastal area has led the other regions of Maine in value and tonnage of current mineral output in the past, output of many commodities has declined. 1 Quarrying, which was particularly active on the coastal islands, is fairly dormant today. Other mineral commodities which are being produced or have been until recently are beryl, crushed stone, feldspar, granite, limestone, peat, and sand and gravel. Base metal sulfide deposits along the coast extend from Penobscot Bay to the New Hampshire border and are presently the subject of geological investigation for commercial extraction. Silver is mined at Cape Rosier on Penobscot Bay. Sand and gravel account for $6 million of the $17 million mineral industry. 2 Off-shore mining of oil and gas involves a highly complex system of exploration and mining processes, fixed water and land facilities, and transport mechanisms which not only affect the marine environment but economic and physical development patterns of coastal lands as well. Each year about one billion tons of sand and gravel are mined in the United States along our estuaries. Reliable figures for the value of sand, gravel, and other non-metal industrial materials are not available but an es@timate of the value of sand and gravel production in the United States from the land is $850 million in 1964. Off-shore production of sand and gravel is estimated at perhaps $10 million additional. Nevertheless, quantities available are large The Resources of New England, New York Region, NENYIAC, 1954. 2 Maine Pocket Book, Maine Department of Economic De- velopment, August 196-9--. 74 and recovery could be increased, given appropriate economic conditions and more detailed information on distribution and thick- ness. Sand and gravel used- primarily as aggregate for concrete structures and highways, are extracted economically only when supplies are reasonably close to where they are used. Since transportation costs frequently exceed the value of the product, deposits of sand and gravel are much in demand only when they are close to large urban centers of consumption. In urban areas adjoining estuaries, one answer to the need for maintaining short hauls, is to exploit sand and gravel deposits in bays, beaches, and harbors in the cities themselves. As a result of glacial transport of sand and gravel, the New England states have abundant deposits. Local restrictions on their de- velopment however, limits the value and usefulness of these reserves. Though most of the Continental Shelf is mantled with sand, the seafloor of the Gulf of Maine is not. Sand is more patchy there, being restricted mainly to shallow, isolated banks and to shallow near shore areas. It is mixed with silt, clay, and gravel in some hummocky areas in the central gulf and is almost lacking from the very fine grain sediments in basins of the gulf. Thus, for metropolitan areas such as Boston and Portland, offshore sources of sand are less plentiful than they are for New York and Providence. Gravel deposits have a much more restricted distribution than sand. Gravel in the Gulf of Maine is associated with a poorly sorted matrix of sand, silt, and clay in till-like deposits. Sources of gravel fairly close to land are quite rare along the Maine coast. Major demands for sand and gravel can be expected to originate in southern New England metropolitan areas such as Boston, Providence, and the New York metropolitan area. Prime areas for sand and gravel are likely to be found on shallow coastal shelves a@round Cape Cod and Massachusetts Bays, Rhode Island Sound and the inner shelf adjacent to Long Island and New Jersey. Therefore, those areas will be likely to supply their own need. It is for these reasons that Maine can expect to be insulated from the economic benefits and environmental costs of sand and gravel production in the near shore area * If, however, major urban development or a major new highway construction program were ISand and Gravel on the Continental Shelf off the Northeastern United States, U. S. Geological Survey, 1968. 75 to be initiated in the Maine Coastal Zone, these expectations could be reversed. I Extensive exploration for oil resources in the international waters near Georges Bank indicate the likelihood of substantial off-shore oil fields. Oil interests outside of Maine have shown some interest in exploring the waters off the Maine coast for oil resources. The exploitation of off-shore oil fields would intensify interest in searching for oil near the Maine coast and in developing oil storage and refining facilities along the Maine coast. The future of petroleum mining in the Gulf of Maine is very speculative. Should major new deposits be discovered, however, conflicts of this activity with marine research, commercial fishing, and all recreational water sport activities could be expected. In addition, there would be renewed pressure for large blocks of waterfront lands to support refi'neries, storage facilities, and ancillary industries, such as petro-chemical plants. These activities could have a tremendous impact on the coastal environment and other land and water uses. In summary, the level of mining activity in Maine is ex- pected to rise only slightly as a result of the continued development and exploitation of newly discovered mineral resources and in response to increased demands for gravel and sand. Unless there are major changes in the economics or technology of sand, gravel and petroleum production, or the discovery of any major new deposits in the Gulf of Maine, the mineral industry in the Maine coastal zone is not likely to impose major conflict. The future impact of the minerals industry on the Maine coastal zone, both in terms of economic development and environmental aspects is uncertain but there is a possibility it could pose significant stress on the natural systems of the region. ISand and Gravel on the Continental Shelf off the Northeastern United States, U. S. Geological Survey, 1968. 76 Additional Significant Coastal Resource Problems Three current major resource management problems are likely to increase in intensity and pose special consideration as additional megalopolitan development pressures are exerted along the Maine coast. These are water quality control, flood damage reduction, and erosion control. Water Quality One of the major areas of current and future conflict on the Maine coast is water quality. Although the quality of the waters are reasonably good, local areas of water quality de- gradation do exist, particularly along the many bays, harbors and inlets. The shoreline represents the critical area for water quality. An indication of this degradation is that 71, 000 acres of shellfish beds are closed to harvesting due to pollution effects of domestic and industrial wastes, representing an economic loss of about $2) 000, 000. 1 A federal water pollution conference on Penobscot Bay was held on April ZO, 1967, and indicated that, "for the total area of Penobscot Bay affected by the recent shell- fish closure, the estimated population was placed at 96, 545 bushels of marketable soft clams valued from a community standpoint at $1, 875, 868. , The conflict between water pollution and fishing and shell- fishing in Maine is longstanding. Swimming is also limited by water quality. In some areas, water pollution severely affects the aesthetics and environmental quality which in turn affects tourism, recreation and boating. Heated water discharges.from nuclear power plants are a recent water quality consideration. The water quality of Maine's coastal zone is deteriorated by municipal and industrial wastes which flow down the major rivers to the ocean, including the Androscoggin, Kennebec and Penobscot Rivers. Coastal communities and industries such as Portland, Rockland and Bar Harbor also contribute to the problem. Combined sewer overflows from these communities pose a stubborn, complex issue. Many of the residential dwellings built along the coast in the past were constructed on or above rock formations with pipelines running to the ocean for waste disposal. This causes additional local water quality degradation. Water quality goals have been established by Maine for all coastal waters and an implementation program is underway. By the mid 1970s significant water quality improvement is expected and most coastal waters will be suitable for all -Lises. Excep- Maine Sea and Shore Fisheries. 77 tions to this will include parts of Portland Harbor, Rockland Harbor, Upper Penobscot Bay, Belfast and other communities where combined sewers are operative. Tourism, environmental quality, recreation, boating, fishing and shellfishing, fisheries and wildlife habitat, research and education, and aquaculture all place stringent future requirements on water quality. At the same time heavy industry and increasing population can place severe stress on the systems required to maintain high levels of water quality. Table 18 indicates varying uses of the coastal zone and their corresponding water quality requirements. The future potential for these activities on the Maine coast will depend in large measure upon the ability of the state to provide adequate water quality. Table 18 Water Quality Requirements for Uses of the Maine Coastal Zone Uses Quality of Water Required Commercial fishing high and fisheries habitat Commercial shellfishing high Sport fishing high Boating moderate Hunting and high wildlife habitat Swimming high Skin Diving high Residences moderate Transportation low Research and education high Environmental quality high Industrial deve lopment moderate -low 78 Flood Damage Reduction Coastal flooding occurs along the Atlantic coastal zone, often as a result of the high winds associated with hurricanes and other major storms. These floods can be particularly severe at the heads of bays and harbors, partly because development tends to concentrate there and partly because of the funnel effect of the land enclosures on high tides. Although the geography of the indented Maine coastline creates a special vulnerability to flooding of this type, the state lies outside the path of most late- summer hurricanes. Still, coastal flooding problems have been noted in 12 towns, most of them along Penobscot Bay or the York and Cumberland county coastlines. In addition, local coastal flooding occurs at other scattered locations along the Maine coast. Present and future demands for summer home construction further intensify the pressure for residential development of flood-prone coastal land. Flood prone areas Iinclude parts of: Belfast Cape Elizabeth Kitte ry Bucksport Eastport Old Orchard Beach Calais Gardiner South Portland Camden Kennebunk Yarmouth Present and projected levels of coastal flooding are shown in Table 19. Table 19 Average Annual Flood Damages in the Maine Coastal Zone 1960 1980 2000 2020 Total, dollars 100,000 180,000 300,000 600,000 External, dollars 30,000 54,000 90,000 180,000 'Assumes no additional restrictions on flood prone. area develop- ment. Source: NERBC staff adaptation of NAR study data. Corps of Engineers and Maine State Planning Office. 79 Adoption of local or state development regulations for the flood-prone areas is likely to significantly reduce the figures shown in Table 17. A positive move toward effective flood plain management is the Executive Order of the Governor of Maine, dated March 4, 1968, which directs all state agencies to order their programs so as to preclude, to the greatest practicable extent, the "uneconomic, hazardous, or unnecessary use of flood plains. " This order applies to direct state spending for roads, buildings, etc. , and also to state grants, loans, and state-approved financing. Acceleration of the flood hazard mapping program by the Corps of Engineers could further assist to strengthen flood plain management and reduce potential flood hazards. Erosion Control Erosion is a problem along the Maine coast, although the geologic structure of massive ledge and rocky shorefront which comprises much of this coastal area prevents erosion from being a critical factor. Erosion has become critical for a small area of the coast, primarily south of the Kennebec River encompassing Maine's recreational beach areas. Of equal importance is the occurence of erosion on lands within the coastal zone which have been devoted to agriculture and forests. Such erosion occurs primarily as these lands are transferred from their traditional use to real estate development. Historical records of erosion along the Maine coast are not detailed; it may be assumed that little change has occurred through the years in the rocky areas. In the erosion prone beach areas along the southern part of the coast, few coastal erosion studies have been undertaken to provide detailed information. The diminution of coastal zone agriculture is not a recent development, but has been occurring at an increasing rate as agricultural oppor- tunities increase and are exploited in other parts of the country. This trend has been significant as transfers in land use have be- come more widespread. Critical erosion areas of the Maine coast have been identified as the York and Kennebunk Beach shorefronts, Old Orchard Beach, Hills and Ferry Beaches south of Portland, as well as Popham Beach to the north. Although only 20 miles of shoreland is experiencing critical erosion, it is a crucial area to the resource picture of the Maine coast. This 20 miles represents more than 90 percent of Maine's recreational beaches. Critical erosion of this area is of greater concern than the area's size alone would indicate. The beaches of Maine are a vital component of the state's recreation and economic resources and their 80 diminution could seriously impair the growth of tourism within. the state.1 The number of visitors to Maine has increased by an es- timated 225 percent from 1962 to 1970. 2 The preponderance of visitors has brought increasing pressure on the coastal areas and has resulted in an acceleration of land use transfers from agriculture and forests to real estate development to accommodate changing recreational patterns. During such a period of change, when erosion is most likely to occur, erosion control is a significant environmental factor. The estimated future erosion control requirements are shown in Table 20. Table 20 Estimated Erosion Control Requirements in the Maine Coastal Zone 1980 2000 2020 Total requirements 40 53 63.4 thousands of acres Requirements placed by 21 26 32 external demands, thousands of acres Source: NERBC staff adaptation of NAR study data. INational Shoreline Study, Corps of Engineers, August, 1970 2Robert Eliot, Director of Vacation and Travel, Marine De- partment of Economic Development. 81 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The Maine coast lies on the fringe of the northeastern megalopolis which includes 45 million people--one fifth of the nation's population. It is an area of high environmental values but is disadvantaged economically. Regional and national demands on the Maine coastal zone are increasing and are forecast to continue to intensify placing severe pressures on the unique natural systems and values of the coast. Specific major conflicts identified in this study which are emerging and are forecast to increase include environmental quality, recreation, tourism, second home development, nuclear power plant siting, port development associated with deep water naviga- tion, commercial fishing and fish processing, and mineral extrac- tion. The pivotal issue which must be resolved is the determination of the appropriate economic development which can be accommo- dated in the coastal zone and still maintain the viability and value of the natural systems of the area. As these pressures moun@ conflicts will occur over the uses of the coastal zone. A key question which confronts aillevels of government and private industry is "What are the appropriate uses of the Maine coastal zone which serve the public interest whether that be local, regional, or national? " A sound decision-making process must evolve in order to assure appropriate uses of the coastal zone. This decision-making pr6cess must provide for recognition of the unique natural values of the coast while simultaneously considering the economic develop- ment requirements of an increasingly affluent population. A viable legal and institutional framework is an essential component of a coastalzone management system. The coastal zone planning effort currently ongoing under the leadership of the State of Maine is a firm foundation for the development of a solid coastal zone management system which is responsive to both environmental and economic needs of the society and which provides a basis for a responsible legal and institutional framework. 83 APPENDIX A I I 85 APPENDIX A PERMANENT AND SEASONAL POPULATIONS OF COASTAL MINOR CIVIL DIVISIONS 1966 Population Est. County and Municipality Square Miles Permanent Seasonal Percent Change York South Berwick 33 3, 169 3,349 5, 6 Eliot 20 3,515 3,744 6.5 'Kitte ry 18 10, 590 11,892 12. 3 'York 56 4,69Z 13, 392 185.4 --Wells 63 3,504 16,861 381.2 'Kennebunk 35 4,995 8,945 79.0 Arundel 26 1,054 1,340 27.1 Kennebunkport 19 2,155 3,233 50. 0 'Biddeford 31 24,068 24,475 1.7 *Saco 40 11,273 15,133 34.3 'Old Orchard Beach 8 5,074 22,571 344.6 Total County 74-9 74,089 125,475 69. Cumberland o 'Scarborough 49 7,060 12,240 73.4 'Cape Elizabeth 16 7,083 7,544 6.5 'South Portland 12 23,334 23, 816 2.1 --Portland ZZ 69,013 79, 671 15.4 '-Falmouth 25 6,398 7,302 14.1 *Cumberland 26 4,198 5,237 24.7 'Yarmouth 14 4,253 51289 24.3 "Freeport 35 4,79.5 6, 330 32.1 I ,.,Brunswick 48 18,Z69 20,312 11.2 Harpswell 25 2,015 6,892 242.1 Total County 272 1 4T, 4-18 1-7 4-7-43 19.3 Sagadahoc West Bath 12 799 1,980 147.8 *Bath 10 9,846 10,137 2.9 Phippsburg 29 1,151 4,716 309.7 Arrowsic 8 174 307 76.4 *Topsham 33 5,644 6,117 8.3 Bowdoinham 34 1,420 1, 622 14.2 Perkins Township 3 3 3 0 *Richmond 30 2,121 2,81Z 3Z.5 Woolwich 36 1,563 1,909 22.1 Georgetown 19 652 2,306 Z53.7 Total County Z14 TZ-, T7_3 31,909 -86 1966 Population Est. County and Municipality Square Miles Permanent Seasonal Percent Change Kennebec -Ga rdine r 16 6,511 6,832 4. 9 Farmingdale 11 2,069 2,095 1 .3 Hallowell 5 3,235 3, Z76 1.3 Augusta 56 22,507 26,069 15.4 Chelsea 20 2,102 2,102 0 Randolph 2 1,664 1,678 0.8 Pittston 32 1,667 1 ,675 0. 5 Total County 142 7-9,755 TT, 7-2 7 9. 9 Lincoln Dresden 31 756 895 18.4 Wiscasset 24 2,084 2,380 14.2 Westport 9 133 475 257.1 Alna 21 294 362 23.1 Newcastle 29 1,298 i,6oi 23.4 Edgecomb 18 558 1 ,113 99.,9 Boothbay 22 1,833 4, 189 128.5 --Boothbay Harbor 4 2,090 5, 150 146.4 Southport 5 380 2,473 550.8 Nobleboro 20 863 1,743 101.9 Damariscotta 13 1, 140 1,736 5Z. 3 South Bristol 14 612 1,568 64.0 Bristol 34 1,460 4,215 52.9 Bremen 16 365 1,037 211.5 Waldoboro 72 3,089 3,693 19.5 Monhegan Plantation 1 65 528 712.3 Total County -3-37 T -7,0-2-T T3, 1-5 8 94.8 Knox Warren 48 1,728 Z,115 22.4 Friendship 14 746 1,365 82.9 Cushing 20 457 966 111.4 St. George 12 1,204 2,371 96.9 South Thomaston 25 496 1,344 170.9 --Thomaston 11 2,698 2,836 5. 1 Owls Head 9 1,104 2,168 96.4 -'Rockland 13 9,110 10,389 14.4 Rockport 22 1,900 2,871 51.1 Camden 19 3,888 5,427 39.6 North Haven 12 413 917 12.2 Vinalhaven 23 1,069 1, 78.5 66.9 Matinicus Isle Plantation 2 81 88 8.6 Isle Au Haut 12 55 228 314.5 Criehaven Township 1 14 14 0 Total County 7_473 25,263 29,457 16.6 87 County and Municipality Square Miles Permanent Seasonal Percent Change Waldo Lincolnville 37 814 2,197 157.6 Northport 24 634 2,457 287.5 'Belfast 33 5, 685 6,919 21.7 Searsport 29 1,888 3, 310 75.3 Stockton Springs 20 1,189 1 ,539 29.4 Prospect 19 355 427 ZO. 3 Frankfort 24 655 759 15. 8 Winterport 36 Z,221 2, 397 7.9 Islesboro 14 344 1 ,382 301. 7 Total County Z1,991 Penobscot *Hampden 38 5' 014 5,370 7.1 '-Bangor 34 4Z,635 43,763 2.7 *Brewer 16 10,014 10,865 8.5 'Orrington 24 2,922 3,654 23.9 Total County 112 60, 585 T3--,T 5 2 5. 1 Hancock Bucksport 53 3,501 4,373 24.9 Verona 6 378 701 85.4 Orland 48 1,206 2, 337 93.8 Penobscot 47 639 826 29.3 Castine 8 675 1,240 83.7 Brooksville 32 477 1,630 241.9 Sedgwick Z7 504 851 68.8 Deer Isle 27 956 2,149 124.8 Stonington 10 1,278 1,714 34.1 B rooklin 18 469 1,134 139.7 Blue Hill 56 1,176 1,899 61. 5 Surry 37 553 1,626 194.0 *Ellsworth 85 4,872 6,595 35.4 Trenton 19 324 1,384 432.1 Lamoine 16 594 1,161 95.4 Hancock 32 919 1,809 96.8 Franklin 26 729 1,292 77.Z Sullivan 26 676 1,212 79. 3 Sorrento 4 142 470 230. 9 Gouldsboro 47 1,344 1,841 36.9 Winter Harbor 14 1,188 1,561 31.4 T 7 SD 21 6 6 0 "Bar Harbor 43 3,634 7, 951 118.6 *Mount Desert 37 1,724 3, 705 114.9 Southwest Harbor 14 1,372 2,334 70.1 Tremont 17 1,008 1,448 43.6 88 1966 Population Est. County and Municipality Square Miles Permanent Seasonal Percent Hancock (Cont.) Change Cranberry Isles 3 167 474 183.9 Long Island Plantation 7 41 54 31.7 Swans Island 14 283 526 85.9 Total County -7 -9-'T- 30,835 54,303 --76-.l Washington Steuben 39 561 1,048 86.8 Cherryfield 44 733 991 35.2 Millbridge Z4 1,001 1,361 3,6.9 Harrington 21 670 941 40.4 Columbia 36 151 205 35.7 Columbia Falls 21 43Z 484 12.0 Addison 42 686 867 26.4 Jonesport 32 1,430 1,806 Z6.3 Beals Island 10 635 652 2.7 Jonesboro 38 514 699 35.9 Roque Bluffs 10 135 187 38.5 Marshfield 14 237 260 9.6 Whitneyville 15 200 208 4.0 Machias 15 2,328 2,967 27.4 Machiasport 22 1,368 1,456 6.5 East Machias 34 971 1, 575 62.2 Whiting 50 234 580 147.9 Cutler 47 676 832 23.1 Trescott Township 28 181 181 0 Lubec 33 2,236 2,489 11.3 Edmunds Township 40 307 307 0 Dennysville 15 319 359 12-5 Pembroke 28 748 1,072 43.3 Perry 30 622 1,133 82.1 Eastport 4 1,932 2,172 12.4 Robbinston 27 383 766 100.0 *Calais 37 4, 546 5, 598 23.1 Passamaquoddy Indian Res. -- 293' 293 0 Total County -775T Z4, 52-q -@I, 489 28.3 Total (Maine Coastal) 3, 451 454,895 669,804 34.1 Source: Maine Coastal Development Plan, Phase I Report, Maine State Planning Office, 1970 '-Indicates municipality with zoning controls. 89 DATE DUE GAYLORD No. 2333 PRINTEDINU.S.A. k1l, L1,11,11,