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HB 3527 .P69 G76 I 1979 I I GROWTH-RELATED IMPACTS OF THE PILGRIM 11 NUCLEAR POWER PLANT PLYMOUTH, MASSACHUSETTS December 1979 COASTAL ZONE INFORMATION CENTER METCALF& EDDY, INC. ENGINEERS & PLANNERS GROWTH RELATED IMPACTS OF THE PILGRIM II NUCLEAR POWER PLANT PLYMOUTH, MASSACHUSETTS December 1979 a7 METCALF & EDDY, INC. ENGINEERS & PLANNERS Ali, BOSTON / NEW YORK / PALO ALTO / CHICAGO. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES iii LIST OF FIGURES iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v REPORT CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1-1 CHAPTER 2 - LITERATURE REVIEW 2-1 Case Studies 2-1 Forecasting Models 2-3 Conclusions from the Literature Review 2-5 CHAPTER 3 - PLYMOUTH'S PILGRIM I EXPERIENCE 3-1 Labor Force and Tax Revenue Generated 3-1, Growth Attributable to Pilgrim 1 3-2 Growth Attributable to Labor Force Versus Tax Rate 3-5 Timing and Magnitude of Tax Rate Reductions 3-5 Duration of Tax Revenue Effects 3-7 CHAPTER 4 - SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR PILGRIM 11 4-1 Labor Force Component 4-3 Tax Revenues Component 4-3 CHAPTER 5 - BASELINE PROJECTIONS WITHOUT PILGRIM 11 5-1 Population 5-1 Employment 5-3 Housing 5-5 School Enrollment 5-5 Public Facilities 5-7 CHAPTER 6 - DETAILED MODEL APPLICATION 6-1 Labor Force Impacts 6-1 Tax Revenues 6-5 Total Growth Impacts 6-8 METCALF & EDDY TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page CHAPTER EVALUATION OF GROWTH IMPACTS AND RECOMMENDED'MITIGATING MEASURES 7-1 Effect on Town Goals 7-1 Mitigating Measures 7-2 Schedule for Mitigating Measures 7-8 REFERENCES APPENDIX Annotated Bibliography A-1 METCALF & CODY LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Population Changes in Plymouth and Waterford 2-3 2 Impact of Pilgrim I on Assessed Values 3-3 3 Plant Proportion of Total Assessed Value and Equalized Tax Rate in Plymouth 3-6 )I Equalized Tax Rate Reductions of Communities in OCPC Region 3-7 5 Projected Growth Without Pilgrim 11 5-7 6 Public Facilities Needs Without Pilgrim 11 5-8 7 Temporary Construction-Related Labor Force Impacts 6-3 8 Permanent Construction-Related Labor Force Impacts 6-4 9 Operation Phase Labor Force Impacts 6-4 10 Summary of Permanent Labor Force Growth Impacts 6-5 11 Tax Revenue Impacts 6-6 12 Change in Growth Parameters Due to Pilgrim Il 6-11 13 Public Facilities Needs Due to Pilgrim 11 6-11 14 Effect of Pilgrim II on Town Goals 7-3 METCALF EDDY LIS-T OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Impact Assessment Model 4-2 2 Population Growth 5-2 3 Employment Growth 5-4 4 School Enrollment 5-6 5. Additional Population Growth Due to Pilgrim 11 6-9 iv METCALF & EDDY ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Metcalf & Eddy wishes to acknowledge with thanks Ray Frieden, Planning Director of the Town of Plymouth, who designed this study, obtained the grant funding, and provided guidance throughout the study. We also acknowledge the assistance of other town officials including the Plymouth Planning Board, and George Moody, Town Assessor. The valued assistance of Robert Tis of Boston Edison is also acknowledged. This project was funded in part by a grant to the Town of Ai@ Plymouth from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Adminis- tration to implement selected elements of the Coastal Energy Impact Program of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The report was prepared by Metcalf & Eddy, Inc. under contract to the Plymouth Planning Board. The primary author is Debra L. Hall, Planner, who produced the report under the direction of Elizabeth K. Levin and William J. Rizzo, Jr., Project Managers. v METCALF EDDY REPORT CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION For the past decade, the Town of Plymouth, a coastal community on the South Shore of Massachusetts, has experienced rapid population growth. The surge in population growth coin- cided with the development of the 655 megawatt Pilgrim I nuclear power plant, whi ch led to considerable speculation that the nuclear plant caused the growth. A second unit of the power plant, Pilgrim II, is proposed as a 1,180 megawatt facility with construction beginning in 1980. There is concern among local officials that additional population growth similar to that attributed to Pilgrim I will occur when Pilgrim II construction begins. The power plant site is located on the Plymouth coast because of the availability of seawater for cooling. In July of 1979, the Town retained Metcalf & Eddy to iden- tify and evaluate the expected growth-related effects of Pilgrim II'. The fundamental purpose of the study was to identify measures which might mitigate the adverse effects of this energy facility. The scope of the study was to: review current research and methodologies for socio- economic impact assessment of Pilgrim I and II and other similar facilities; develop a qualitative socioeconomic impact assessment model that simulated the growth processes in Plymouth due to Pilgrim II plant construction and operation; METCALF & EDDY . describe the Town growth which would occur without Pilgrim II; 0 identify and evaluate growth impacts due to Pilgrim II through the use of the model developed; and . identify measures to mitigate the negative growth- related socioeconomic impacts of Pilgrim II. The results of this study are an integral part of a comprehensive planning program presently being undertaken by the Town. This program, founded in part on goals for growth management and tax rate control, will be presented to Town meeting in 1980 for implementation. It should provide the Town with the capacity to manage and mitigate the growth impacts of the Pilgrim II plant. This study was funded through a combination of local funds and a Federal Coastal Energy Impact Program grant administered by the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. 1-2 METCALF EDDY CH APTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Existing knowledge of the growth-related socioeconomic impacts'of nuclear power plants is not well advanced since nuclear power plants are relatively new and early studies of impacts usually ignored socioeconomic effects.(l) However, what does exist in the literature on these impacts can be generally categorized as either: case studies of existing facilities with descriptions and some quantification of growth impacts; forecasting models that estimate impacts of proposed plants based on measurement of growth processes that were hypothesized or observed in other communities with energy plants. The discussion of the literature is presented in these two categories. An annotated biblography of literature reviewed for this study is presented as an Appendix to this report. Case Studies Case studies provide descriptive information concerning growth impacts of.individual nuclear power plant,s. They use research methods such as surveys, interviews, census and other data analysis supplemented by analysis of newspapers, articles letters and t,ranscripts associated with a project. Case studies are helpful in understanding how much and what types of growth- related impacts are associatedwith the construction and oper- ation of an energy plant. 2-1 METCALP & EDDY Many of the case studies focus on the socioeconomic impacts of siting energy facilities in remote areas, which results in a "boomtown" occurrence. The boomtown usually occurs when the influx of the construction workers, their families, and support personnel relo cate to an area, placing severe and rapid demands on the housing market, health and public services, and commercial facilities.(2) In Plymouth., the "boomtown" effect is moderated due to the proximity of an existing available labo3@ force within commuting distance. Of more relevance to the potential impacts of Pilgrim II was a post-licensing case study of the effects on the community of Pilgrim I in Plymouth and Millstone I and II in Waterford, Connecticut.(3) This study found the following social and eco nonic effects for both communities: Construction impacts were minor due to the availability of workers with community distance. The primary impact of the nuclear plants in both communities was an increase in the property tax base and short-term decreases in property tax rates. Indirect consequences of these tax effects impact were (1) professionalization of local government, (2) increased recognition of growth issues, and (3) increased tensions between the plant's community and surrounding communities which received no tax benefits but shared risks of the plant.(3) 2-2 METCALP & EODY In spite of the similarities of these effects on the two communities, the population effects were markedly different, with Plymouth experiencing significant growth and Waterford remaining relatively stable asshown in Table 1. TABLE 1. POPULATION CHANGES IN PLYMOUTH AND WATERFORD Plymouth Waterford Pre-construction population 159400 169600 Post-construction population 28,000 18,300 Change +12,6oo + 12700 The lack of restrictive land use controls, considerable publicity about the favorable tax advantages provided by nuclear plants, and sizeable growth potential in the region were cited as the factors that stimulated growth in Plymouth as compared to Waterford. This study,, and another prepared at Oak Ridge National Laboratories on the fiscal impacts of the two plants,(4) suggested that growth is not induced solely by tax rate reduc- tions, since both towns used additional tax revenues from the plant to lower property tax rates, but by the degree of public attention and exposure drawn to these tax benefits and their related potentials for improved public services. This public attention occurred in the case of Plymouth and not in Waterford. Forecasting Models Forecasting models described in the literature on socio- economic impacts of power plants focus on boomtowns and growth 2-3 METCALF & EDDY induced by labor force chan ges. They include input-output models to project regional plant induced employment; econometric fore- casting to project areawide employment changes- gravity models to project population allocations to towns near an energy facility; cohort survival models to project total population by age/sex groups, and models that reflect subsequent changes in public facilities needs and tax revenues.(5) The major limitation of these models is that none of them consider the growth impacts resulting from the plant's tax revenues, which was identified in the Pilgrim I case studies as the most important factor causing growth. In addition, they usually have-extensive data and information requirements that are time consuming to obtain; most of the models project regional rather than local impacts; and few have been applied to more than one geographical area. Although there is no single existing model suited to forecast the growth impacts of Pilgrim II, the literature review of models provides important insight into how to structure growth processes in the model for Pilgrim II. In particular, the economic base theory used in modeling indicates that when a nuclear plant causes an increase in population and plant-related employment, there will also be a measurable increase in local retail and service empl oyment, since new residents and employees spend a portion of their incomes locally on goods and services. In these models, the retail and service sector employment generated by this process of local economic activity is called multiplier" employment. 2-4 METCALF EODY Conclusions from the Literature Review The literature search on socioeconomic impacts of nuclear power plants indicates that tax revenues and, to a less,er extent, the demand for labor force during construction and operation are the significant features of the nuclear plant that cause growth in population and employment. Due to the multiplier effect, employment growth includes both plant-related and retail and service sector jobs. The literature search suggested that since no actual research has been performed to estimate growth impacts from plants like Pilgrim II, the best approach to determining what will be the growth impacts of the Pilgrim II plant is to examine more closely what happened during Pilgrim I and apply these findings for Pilgrim II. 2-5 METCALF & CODY CHAPTER 3 PLYMOUTH'S PILGRIM I EXPERIENCE The literature search, particularly the case studies, indicated that a closer examination of the growth impacts induced by tax revenues and labor force of Pilgrim I would be appro- priate. This section analyzes the type and magnitude of these impacts. The basis for this analysis included discussions with Boston Edison and local officials and review of historical data on the Pilgrim I plant and fiscal and socioeconomic character- istics of Plymouth. This analysis addressed five questions: . What was the magnitude of the labor force and tax revenue generated by Pilgrim I? . How much of Plymouth's growth during the 1970's was attributable to Pilgrim I? .Of the growth attributable to Pilgrim I. how much was due to the labor force and how much was due to tax revenues? 0What was the timing and magnitude of tax rate effects in Plymouth? *How long did the growth impacts of the tax revenues last? Each of these questions is described below. Labor Force and Tax Revenue Generated The construction period for the Pilgrim I plant was September 1968 to December 1972. The average number of 3-1 METCALF & EDDY construction workers on the site each year was 500, with a peak force of 750 in 1970. Approximately 70 percent of the con- struction workers commuted to work at the site.(7) Over the course of the entire cons truction periods approximately 300 construction workers settled'permanently in Plymouth, which was about 15 percent of the total number of workers involved in construction of the plant. Labor force impacts during the operation phase of the plant presently include 150 permanent jobs, with approximately 90 of these employees presently living in Plymouth.(10) Since 1973, t he plant has generated approximately $7 million in property taxes annually. The impact of the Pilgrim I plant on the local property tax structure was significant between 1970 and 1975, when the plant was completed and began operation. Table 2 shows the impact of the plant on assessed values in Plymouth. Growth Attributable t,o Pilgrim I During the early 1960's. Route 3 was completed and the South Shore of Massachusetts as a whole grew rapidly. Between 19 65 and 1970, Plymouth experienced significant growth impacts from Route 3 and had a five-year growth rate of 20 percent (up from a 6.7 percent growth rate between 1960 to 1965). Since towns to the north of Plymouth on Route 3 experienced the accelerated growth rates'for approximately 10 years (1960-1970) before leveling off to more moderate rates by 1975, Plymouth in the absence of-Pil grim I would have experienced its Route 3 induced 3-2 METCALF & EDDY growth.in the period 1965 to 1975. This is based on the assump- tion that growth started later but would last at least 10 years as it had with communities closer to Boston. TABLE 2. IMPACT OF PILGRIM I ON ASSESSED VALUES Assessed Plant Plant as a propor- value of assessed tion of total Year town(l) value(l) assessed value, % 1966 $ 432451 1967 45,827 1968 479629 $ 132 1969 51,515 12456 0.03 1970 68s751 149510 0.21 1971 93,9728 29,808 0.32 1972 1149559 '442808 0.39 1549429 769442 o.49 1974-75 1652212 769442 0.46 1. In thousands of dollars. Sources: Annual Reports: Town of Plymouth 1966-1975. Additional unpublished data provided by the Town Assessor's Office. The approach to estimating how much of Plymouthts growth after 1970 was attributable to Pilgrim I requires the assumption that Route 3 would have caused the 1970 to 1975 growth rates to be comparable but not in excess of the previous five-year rate. Therefore, Pilgrim I would have been responsible for the excess growth. 3-3 METCALF EDDY In 19709 Plymouth's population was 18,600. Between 1970 and 1975, had Plymouth continued to grow at its previous (accelerated) five-year rate of 20 percent, its population in 1975 would have been 22,300, an increase of 3,700 persons. Instead, Plymouth?s population was 26,900, which represented a five-year growth rate of 45 percent for the Town and an increase of 1,660 per year. It would appear, therefore, that growth of approximately 4,600 persons was attributable to Pilgrim I for the years.1970 to 1975. Between 1975 and 1979 growth in the region as a whole slowed down substantially from the previous period (1970 to 1975). This was in part due to the 1974 recession, which had a devastating impact on the real estate industry. Plymouth's growth, like that of the region, was also moderated during the period to an annual increase of 1,150 persons per year. Never- theless, Plymouth continued to capture.an overwhelming share of the region's growth during this period and to reflect a comparatively high level,of growth activity. Building permit data for the Old Colony Planning Council region (excluding Brockton) shows that Plymouth issued approxi- mately 45 percent of the regional total of building permits between 1976 and 1978. It would appear, therefore, that the Pilgrim I growth impact has continued through this period. It is estimated that, as in the period from 1970 to 1975, approximately one-half of the growth in the Town is attributable to Pilgrim I. 3-4 METCALF & EDDY Plymouth's population growth from 1970 to 1979 is summarized below: 1970-1975 1975-1979* 1970-1979 Total population growth 8x300 49650 12,950 Growth due to 4.6oo 2 62900 Pilgrim 1 9300 Growth Attributable to Labor Force Versus Tax Revenues It is estimated that approximately 390 Pilgrim I employees, consisting of 300 construction and 90 operation personnel moved to Plymouth between 1970 and 1975.(7) Assuming these employee house- holds had an average of 3.0 persons per household, this resulted in a permanent population increase of approximately 1,200 persons. The growth due to tax revenues between 1970 and 1975 was therefore 3,400, the remainder of the total increase of 4.6oo. Since.it has been estimated that Plymouth's population would have increased by 39700 (20 percent) to 1975 if Pilgrim I had not been built, the growth due to tax revenues caused almost a doubling in the baseline growth rate. This effect continued through 1979. Timing and Magnitude of Tax Rate Reductions The period from 1970 to 1975 was when Pilgrim I had its most dramatic fiscal effects on Plymouth. Table 3 shows the plant proportion of the total assessed value of the Town and the changes in equalized tax rates. From these figures, it appears that there could be a direct relationship between population *Estimated. 3-5 METCALF 41h EDDY growth and tax rate reductions. Surprisinglys howevers as shown in Table 4. nearby communities in the Old Colony Planning Council (OCPC) region also experienced reduction in equalized tax rates during those years due to inc reased availability of Federal and State revenues, However, in terms of percentage decreases, Plymouthts decrease was the second greatest. This lends credence to the hypothesis from the literature search that growth is not induced solely by tax rate reductions, but by public attention drawn to the plantts significant tax revenues and the potentials they seem to offer for low taxes and better public services. In Plymouth, there was considerable publicity concerning the tax benefits to the Town of the Pilgrim I plant. TABLE 3. PLANT PROPORTION OF TOTAL ASSESSED VALUE AND EQUALIZED TAX RATE IN PLYMOUTH Plant as a propor- Equalized tion of.total tax rate Year assessed value $/1.000 1969 .03 34.02 1970 .21 39-90 1971 .32 35-80 1972 .39 49.90 1973 .49 53-50 (1) 1974-75 .46 26.60 1976 .46 28.80 1977 .44 37-08 1. Tax rates rose because a major capital project was funded with property tax revenues. Source: Municipal Financial Data, Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, 1969-1976. 3-6 METCALF & EDDY TABLE 4. EQUALIZED TAX RATE REDUCTIONS OF COMMUNITIES IN OCPC REGION Rate 1970 1976(l) change % of ($) ($) 70-76 1970 Abington 48.00 43-10 -4.9 -10.2 Avon 45-00 42.80 -2.2 -4.9 Bridgewater 51-90 42-30 -9.6 -18.5 E. Bridgewater 48.00 42.4o -5.6 -11.7 Easton 42.00 37.40 -4.6 -11.0 Hanson 42.00 35-70 -6.3 -15.0 Kingston 50.6o 34.50 -16.1 -31.8 Pembroke 46.02 38-70 -7-32 -15.9 PLYMOUTH 39-78 28.4o -11-38 -28.6 Stoughton 56-71 41-50 -15.21 -26.8 W. Bridgewater 54.61 42-70 -11.91 -21.8 Whitman 43.4o 42-30 -0.10 0 1. 1976 given for comparison because 1974-1975 was the 18-montR- period in which the municipalities in the Commonwealth changed to a July-to- June fiscal year. Source: Municipal Financial Data, 1970, 1976, Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. Duration of Tax Revenue Effects Between 1975 and the present, Plymouth has continued to attract substantial population growth due to Pilgrim I. which implies that the tax revenue effects last at least 10 years. 3-7 METCALr & EDDY CHAPTER 4 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR PILGRIM II The socioeconomic impact assessment model for Pilgrim II is a tool for determining the growth implications of constructing and operating a second nuclear power plant in Plymouth. The model provides a conceptual framework for the theory that labor force and tax revenues are the pla nt characteristics that will affect the Town's growth rate during the plant's construction phase and first few years of operation. This theory is based on the findings of the literature search, Plymouth's experience with Pilgrim 1, information about the characteristics of the Pilgrim II plant and present community characteristics. Figure 1 shows the conceptual model. Labor force and tax revenues cause changes in population, employment, housing and school enrollments. These four growth parameters were selected because they: are basic parameters that affect provision of public facilities in the Town; can be readily monitored; and are the same parameters that are being used in'the Town's comprehensive planning process. The relationship between the plant characteristics, specifically labor force and tax revenues, and changes in the growth parameters for the Town, as represented in the model, are describedbelow. 4-1 METCALF EDDY PILGRIM 11 PLANT PLANT MU IPLIER EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT OUSING POPULATION H SCHOOL ENROLLMENT FIGURE 1. IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODEL Labor Force Component The construction and operation of Pilgrim II will generate many temporary construction jobs and some permanent jobs, and will result in some in-migration of construction workers and operation personnel. These new residents will place demands on housing and schools. Loc*al expenditure of wages by construction workers and operation personnel living and/or Just working in Plymouth will generate retail and service sector activity which will increase the number of "multiplier" Jobs.(8) Tax Revenues Component The plant represents an improvement to property of hundreds of millions of dollar s. which means that its assessed value will significantly increase Plymouthts property tax base. To the degree that there is publicity about the possibilities these reve nues will be used to improve and expand services or lower taxes, Plymouth would be likely to attract new residents. These new residents would require hous-ing, add school children to the system and generate "multiplier" employment d ue to expendi- ture of wages on locally provided housing, goods and services. Factors that influence the magnitude of labor force impacts include the number of workers who choose to locate in Plymouth, worker income levels, and the proportion of that income each worker spends.locally. Factors that influence the magnitude of the tax revenue impacts include the amount of land locally available for development, land use controls that restrict development, housing, land and transportation costs and the 4-3 MtTCALF & EODY Town's image as a "family" community, including considerations of good schools, recreation facilities and other amenities. These factors influencing the magnitude of the plantts growth impacts will be discussed further when the model is applied in detail and used to estimate a range of growth impacts. They represent the factors that typically restrain or enhance local growth processes, 4-4 METCALF & EDDY CHAPTER 5 BASELINE PROJECTIONS WITHOUT PILGRIM II A first step prior to application of the model is to establish a basis of comparison for Pilgrim I impacts. These are called "baseline" conditions and are projections of the types of growth that are likely to occur if the Pilgrim II plant is not built. In order to be consistent with Plymouthts comprehensive planning process, growth parameters of population, employment,, housing needs, and school enrollment through the year 2000 were utilized. The Technical Memorandum No. 1, Ranges of Future Demand, of the Plymouth Comprehensive Plan, dated 1979, contains these projections. These projections were based on a compilation of existing available data from local, regional and State sources. No independent projections were made except 'where modi- fications of available projections were necessary to extrapolate them to the year 2000 planning horizon. Technical Memorandum No. 4. dated 1979, includes a Public Facilities Analysis that trans- lates these baseline growth projections into public facilities requirements. These projections and the resulting public facilities requirements were used as baseline conditions without Pilgrim II. Highlights of these technical memoranda are summarized below. Population Plymouth's population growth through 1978 is shown in Figure 2. The Town experienced a rapid increase in population 5-1 METCALF & EDDY POPULATION (YEAR ROUND) 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 cn 0 0 0 C M c: 0 0 m co u" 2. aca :Cmn So m Mo > 0 c 0 OD 0 0 z M m 0 co 0 C/) m IV m CL 8 m 0 0 1 1 1 cl 0 :3 0 3 growth beginning in 1965 and accelerating during the 1970-1975 period. During the 1970ts, the Town grew more rapidly than the Old Colony Planning Council (OCPC) region or neighboring individual towns.(6) Figure 2 also shows recent population projections that were prepared for.the Town. The highest projection was prepared in 1975 by the Old Colony Planning Council based on a regression analysis of past trends. Since past trends included the 1970-1975 accelerated growth rates caused by Pilgrim I. the OCPC estimate is likely to be high, since the technique assumed a continuation of the Pilgrim I effect. The lower projection was prepared in 1977 by the Southeastern Regional Planning and Economic.Development District, based on a disaggregation, from the regional to the local level, of 1975 Massachusetts Office of State Planning Projections. Each of the projections was extended through from 19951to the year 2000 by straight line projections based on the rate of growth in the last year of the projection.(9)' Since these projections were prepared without explicit consideration of the Pilgrim II plant, these projections are considered as "without Pilgrim III' projections. These projections indicate a future range of population of 40,000 to 52,500 in the year 2000. Employment Past trends and projections In total employment for the Town of Plymouth are shown in Figure 3. Past employment changes in Plymouth due to the Pilgrim I labor force are not reflected here due to data collection techniques which record,utility- related employment in the area where the home utility company is 5-3 METCALF & EDDY Acca Q JIV3.Law NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES 0 0 cn 0 CD c m S. m 0 rn 0 B < m 3 T" cooo z based. Projections prepared for Plymouth by the Old Colony Planning Council show total employment for the Town on the order of 12,600 by the year 2000. Housing Estimated demand for housing in the year 2000 without Pilgrim II were based on projected population increases and the following:(9) � The ratio of multifamily units to single family units would continue to be approximately 1:3. � The population per single family unit would remain at 3.0 persons as reported for owner-occupied units in the 1970 census. � The population per multifamily unit would be from 1.5 to 2.0 persons. � The eqnst.ruction of seasonal homes would be insignif- icant in the future. The resulting housing demand is 3,700 to 8,200 new units between the year 1978 to 2000. This represents an additional 160 to 350 units per year. School Enrollment Total student enrollment in 200'0 under baseline conditions is shown in Figure 4. and is based on projections by the Plymouth School Department, New England School Development Council, the Massachusetts Department of Education and Metcalf & Eddy. The projections differ because of assumptions made about future birth and migration rates. These projections show a future school 5-5 METCALF & EDDY STUDENTS 0) co 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 cn 0 CA -A CD 0 U) 0 c w- On -n ai A 3 c m 0 .Pb m CL cn C-) m 0 m 0 > 0 M 0 z C 0 Cl) =r 0 0 m z cn m 'M (A -A .-C - "o oll 3 0 CL enrollment of 10,,900 to 13,300, which is an increase of 2,900 to 5,300 over the 1978-79 enrollment of 8,000. Public Facilities These baseline growth parameters were used to project demands on major public facility needs for schools, the sewer system, and water supply. The basis of the projected demand for public facilities is detailed in Technical Memorandum No. 4. Public Facilities Analysis (1979). Estimated growth parameters and public facilities needs for the year 2000 are summarized in Tables 5 and 6. as baseline conditions for the future without Pilgrim II conditions. TABLE 5. PROJECTED GROWTH WITHOUT PILGRIM II Growth parameters -1. 978 20OU Population 31000 409000 - 52s5OO Employment 82100 122600- Housing 122.000 169000 - 202000 School enrollment 82000 10000 - 13,300 Source: Technical Memo randum No. 1 "Ranges of Future Demand". Plymouth Comprehensive Plan, 1979. 5-7 METCA LF & EDDY TABLE 6. PUBLIC FACILITIES NEEDS WITHOUT PILGRIM II Public facilities 'Nee s, r; 200,0 Schools 3-5 schools Elementary 3 schools Intermediate (3,300 students) High School 1 school (1,900 students) Sewerage facilities Improve existing treatment plant and rehabilitate existing sewers. 15-20 miles of new sewers and a treatment plant. water supply Expansion of public well supplies to serve 15,000-20,000 additional persons. Extensive expansion of existing distribution system. 1. These estimates assume no growth management. Estimates of future Intermediate and Senior High School needs include allowances for the adjacent town of Carver of about 200 students each. Source: Technical Memorandum No. 4. "Public Facilities Analysis." Plymouth Comprehensive Plan,, 1979. 5-8 METCALF CODY CHAPTER 6 DETAILED MODEL APPLICATION In this section, the model is discussed in more detail and is applied to estimate growth impacts that could be expected in Plymouth with Pilgrim II. Quantitative values for growth impacts should be considered illustrative and are provided to give order of magnitude indications of growth effects. These effects are presented separately for the labor force and tax revenue. 'Labor Force Impacts Construction Phase. The labor force impacts are modeled after growth impacts that occurred with Pilgrim I. This appeared justifiable since the factors affecting the decision of Pilgrim II workers to move to Plymouth, namely, income, housing avail- ability., and convenient access to construction work opportunities once the plant is completed are similar to the factors that affected decisions during the Pilgrim I construction period.* The construction-related impacts were based on the following assumptions: 1. 16 percent of the annual average work force'of 1.,000 persons will need temporary housing in each year of the six-year construction period.(10) 2. Seven percent of the total work force of 7,100 will permanently relocate in Plymouth over the six-year construction period.(7) *The energy crises may have affected the perceived accessibility of Plymouth to the Boston area job market. However, there is no significant evidence yet to suggest gasoline prices will exceed cost savings of buying a home in Plymouth as opposed to the suburbs closer to Boston. 6-1 It METCALF & EDDY 3. The average household size for new households will be 3.0 persons.(9) 4. There will be an average of one school-aged child per household.(9) 5. The average annual construction wage will be approximately $251,000 ($20,000 after taxes) and will generate 1.2 jobs in the region due to the multiplier effect.(8) 6. For workers who move to Plymouth, approximately half of their expenditures are local and will thereby generate 0.6 jobs per worker locally.(11) 7. For workers who live outside of Plymouth., approxi- mately $20.00 per week will be spent locally, thereby generating 0.06 jobs per worker locally.* For Pilgrim II, Boston Edison estimates that an average of 1,000 persons per year will be working on Pilgrim II with a peak construction force of 2,000. The total work force (in man-years) for the six-year construction period will be 7,100.(7) Approximately 160 workers and their families are expected to live in Plymouth on a temporary basis each year. These workers will generally be skilled workers who live too far to commute and who will typically be employed at the plant for less *-Secondary jobs do not generate significant population growth,, housing demand or increases in school enrollment since employ-, ment opportunities in the retail and service sectors are relatively low paying and will generally be made available to existing residents of the area and will not be likely to result in decisions to relocate to Plymouth (11). 6-2 METCALF & EDDY than a year. Throughout the construction period 160 household units will be the approximate number needed to house these tran- sient workers. Some of this demand will be absorbed by existing vacant rental or sales housing. However, since the rental market is tight,, the demand may create additional pressure for low rental units in the Town. Table 7 shows the temporary construction-related labor force impacts. TABLE 7. TEMPORARY CONSTRUCTION- RELATED LABOR FORCE IMPACTS Annual temporary Parameter impacts(l) 'Population 480 persons Employment 1,141 jobs Housing 160 units School enrollment 160 students 1. These will occur In the first year and represent the approximate number of transient workers in Plymouth each year throughout the six-year construction period. Permanent labor force impacts measure the number of worker households who move to Plymouth during the years when construe- tion is underway. Many of these workers may live within commut- ing distance but will choose to relocate due to opportunities for affordable housing, reduced travel time to work and other desir- able residential characteristics of the Town. Table 8 shows permanent construction-related labor force impacts. Operation Phase. During the operation phase, Pilgrim II will employ 175 technical personnel. Boston Edison estimates 6-3 METCALF & EDDY that over 50 percent of these workers will relocate in Plymouth.(10), Assuming 100 worker households will be relocating (57 percent), the impacts will be as shown in Table 9. These impacts are assumed to occur once the plant is operational,@ TABLE 8. PERMANENT CONSTRUCTION-RELATED LABOR FORCE IMPACTS Cumulative (net) impacts Annual permanent at end of impacts due to construction Parameter worker relocation period Population 250 persons ls500 persons Employment 50 jobs 300 jobs Housing 83 units 500 units School enrollment 83 students 500 students TABLE 9. OPERATION'PHASE LABOR FORCE IMPACTS Parameter Net Im2ac t8cl) Population 300 persons Employment 240 jobs Housing 100 housing units School enrollment 100 students 1. As of first year of operation and throughout life of plant. 6-4 METCALF & EDDY Table 10 summarizes the permanent growth impacts attribut- able to the labor force during construction and operation. TABLE 10. SUMMARY OF PERMANENT LABOR FORCE GROWTH IMPACTS Total of construction and Growth parameters operation phases Population 1,800 persons Employment 540 jobs Housing 600 housing units School enrollment 600 students Tax Revenues The Pilgrim II plant will provide substantial tax revenues to Plymouth and is likely to accelerate growth in the 1980's. To project those growth impacts, it is first necessary to look at the fiscal situation in the Town. The total ass.essed value of nonexempt real and personal property tax base for Plymouth is currently $922 million. By the time Pilgrim II plant,, valued at $1 billion,, is completed (probably 1987). the plant value will cause the total assessed value of the Town to double. This will provide the Town with assured revenues between $14 and $20 million dollars.* *Revenues, are based on discussions with the Plymouth Tax Assessor and Boston Edison. At present, it is difficult to estimate the exac since utilities in Massachusetts are no longer taxed according to traditional property tax formulas. t amount of revenues that will be generated by the plant, .6-5 METCALF & EDDY The justification for estimating the tax effects on growth rates based on Pilgrim Its experience is that few of the community characteristics'that couldinfluence the magnitude of growth induced by tax revenues have significantly changed, specifically: Fiscal Environment: Plymouth still relies on the property tax for most of its local revenues. Unless future State policy includes redistribution of reven- ues from public utilities or puts a cap on the amount of revenues that can be raised with property taxes, the relationship between changes in taxes and growth rates is likely to continue. Accessibility: The energy crisis may have affected the perceived accessibility of Plymouth and other South Shore communities to the Boston job market. However, there is no definite evidence yet to suggest that gasoline prices will exceed cost savings of buying a home in Plymouth as opposed to suburbs closer to Boston, Land Use Controls: Plymouth presently has more stringent land use controls than existed in the early 19701s. However, Plymouth's local land use controls are not viewed as more restrictive than those of neighboring communities.'and therefore are not a significant con- straint to development. However, when land use controls identified in Plymouth's comprehensive planning program are implemented, Plymouth may be more restrictive than neighboring communities. 6-7 METCALF & EDDY Housing and Land Costs: New housing in Plymouth 18' still relatively lower priced in comparison to other neighboring communities.(13) Land Availability: Plymouth is the largest town in the State and the availability of developable land will not be a constraint to development in the forseable future. "Image": The Town continues to enjoy the image as a family community, due to its good schools and extensive recreation facilities, particularly attractive beaches. One additional factor that could inhibit growth due to tax revenue benefits is the issue of nuclear plant safety. Although a recent study has shown that fear of plant-related health and safety factors has not influenced residential location decisions within 20 miles of Plymouth, public attention to nuclear "accidents" such as Three Mile Island may moderate growth rates to a minor extent. Our estimate of increase does not reflect any change of attitude caused by the safety issue.(12) Total Growth Impacts The total growth impacts include the labor force and tax revenue impacts over the period of construction (approximately six years) ind the first three or four years of operation. Figure 5 shows the projections with Pilgrim II for the popula- tion. They are based on the assumpti on that temporary and permanent labor force impacts begin in the first year of con- struction and last through year six; tax-revenue induced growth 6-8 METCALF & EDDY 65000 Without Pilgrim 11 60000 - - - - - -- With Pilgrim 11 ON. 55000 50000 0 0 45000 0 (L 0 (L . .. . .. .. .... ... .. ...... . . .. 40000 . .. .... JON CT pvtoirr- 0" 0 10" 35000 30000 Tax Revenue Effects Construction Effects 1980 1 @85 19;0 1995 YEAR FIGURE 5. ADDITIONAL POPULATION DUE TO PILGRIM 11 METCALF EDDY occurs once the plant begins to generate significant revenues (and attention is drawn to those fiscal impacts on the Town).* The figure highlights the time periods when Plymouth will experience themost significant growth impacts: the first year of construction, when temporary and permanent labor force immigrants add over 730 new residents to the Town and the last two years of construction when labor force and tax revenue- induced growth impacts ov:rlap, Impacts extend through 1995. By the year 2000, the population range will have increased by 4,76o to 12,56o, to a new projected range of 44,760 to 65,060. The population changes represent an additional 1,600 to 4,,200 units of housing and 1.6oo to 4,200 additional school students. One hundred seventy-five plant-related jobs are the net increase in employment, as a@e 950 to 2,520 multiplier jobs. All growth parameters will increase in the same pattern as population, with most of the construction-related changes pre- ceeding the tax revenue related increases. Tables 12 and 13 summarize thebaseline and revised projec- tions for growth parameters and public facilities needs. *Tax revenue induced growth impacts may possibly begin slightly earlier since buyers, sellers and brokers may act in anticipa- tion of revenues. This may be mitigated by the more sophis- ticated attitudes of potential home buyers toward nuclear power plants. 6-lo METCALF & EDDY TABLE 12. CHANGE IN GROWTH PARAMETERS DUE TO PILGRIM II Yea*r@ '20GO Growth parameters Without'Pilgrim 11 With Pilgrim I Population 40000-52s500 44s760-659060 Employment 122600 l3s725-15000 Housin g 160000-202000 17.6oO-24,200 School enrollment 102900-13000 l2s500-179500 TABLE 13. PUBLIC.FACILITIES NEEDS DUE TO PILGRIM II Projected needs Year 2000 Public facilities VIEFo-ut Pilgrim II With Pilgrim IT Schools Elementary 3-5 schools 5-6 schools Intermediate 3 schools 4 schools (4,400 students) High school 1 school 2 schools (2,500 students) Sewerage Facilities Improve existing treat- Same as base- ment plant and rehabili- line except tate existing sewers. 20-25 miles of 15-20 miles of new new sewers and sewers and a treatment a larger treat- plant. ment plant. Water Supply Expansion of public Same as base- well supplies to line except well @erve 15,000 - 201,000 supplies should additional persons. be expanded to Extensive expansion of serve 18,ooo to existing distribution 30s000- system. 6-11 METCALF EDDY CHAPTER 7 EVALUATION OF GROWTH IMPACTS-AND RECOMMENDED MITIGATING MEASURES As discussed in Chapter 6, the Pilgrim II plant will cause growth impacts in population, employment, housing and school enrollment in Plymouth, and additional public utilities will be required to service this new growth. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the Pilgrim II growth impacts and to identify measures to mitigate impacts which are considered negative. The measure of whether an impact is negative or positive is determined by the degree to which it supports or frustrates Town goals. Therefore, the first section of this chapter dis- cusses the Town goals and the effect of Pilgrim II impacts upon them. Following that discussion is a section on recommended mitigating measures and an appropriate schedule for implementation. Effect on Town Goals In April 1978, after a year of work by the Planning Board and Selectmen, the Plymouth Town meeting adopted the report "Goals for Plymouth".(14) This report was to serve as the policy foundation for continued comprehensive planning for the Town. The goals are divided into the six major subject areas of: growth management tax rate control economic development 7-1 METCALF & EDDY Town Center/Waterfront public facilities needs Village.Centers concept In e ach subject area, there was identified a set of specific goals and objectives. Table 14 presents those goals (paraphrased. and summarized) which are potentially affected by Pilgrim II and, identifies the degree of that effect, absent of any mitigating measures. The effect is based on the growth impacts of the plant as de scribed in Chapter 6 and on the plantts revenue characteristics. The plant will frustrate many of the Town goals primarily due to the population increase it will encourage. This increase will have a negative impact on the growth management, public facilities and Village Centers concept goals due to the lack of adequate mechanisms presentlylin place in the town to adequately manage this expected development. The plant will have a strong positive impact on municipal revenues and employment opportunities. Mitigating Measures The mechanisms to mitigate many of the adverse effects on Town goals are available and under consideration by the Town as part of their comprehensive planning process. The central objective,of these measures is to control the amount,,,location and rate of growth consistent with the Village Centers concept and the goals of tax rate control, provision of adequate public facilities and economic development. 7-2 METCALF & EDDY TABLE 14. EFFECT OF PILGRIM II ON TOWN GOALS Goal EfMt A. Growth Management 1. Control the rate of growth strong negative 2. Guide, minitor and respond to growth and change in an efficient manner negative 3. Manage growth to preserve environmental resources negative 4. Insure high quality of growth negative B. Tax Rate Control 1. Stabilize tax rate positive 2. Increase municipal revenues strong positive 3. Minimize demands on resources. negative C. Public Facilities. 1. Optimize use of public facilities within existing resources negative D. Economic Development 1. Improve economic opportunities strong positive 2. Increase governmental facilities for economic development neutral E. Town Center/Waterfront neutral F. Village Centers Concept 1. Shape future growth around Village Centers negative 7-3 METCALF & EDDY Effective implementation and enforcement of these mechanisms should attain growth management, irrespective of the cause of that growth. It is therefore believed that many-of the adverse growth-related impacts of Pilgrtim II will be generally minimized by these town-wide growth control measures. While Pilgrim II will exert supplemental growth pressure, these town- wide growth management measures are expected to mitigate it. In addition to the town-wide measures, there are sp ecial measures which are necessary to mitigate adverse effects which are unique to Pilgrim Il. Both the town-wide and special measures are discussed below. Town-Wide Measures. There are a number of techniques for managing the amount, location, rate and timing of growth which are presently under consideration by the Town. These are discussed in Technical Memorandum, Task 3. titled,"State of the Art Review of Growth Management Systems". prepared by Robert H. Frielich and Associates'. dated October 1978, and Legal Memorandum No. 1 (including Technical Memorandum No. 3) titled "Growth Management Approaches" prepared by Freilich & Leitner and Metcalf & Eddy, dated October 26, 1979. These two documents present and evaluate growth management systems which might be appropriate to implement the Plymouth goals. They are briefly summarized below. 1. Numerical Restraint. This approach would limit the amount or rate of growth which could occur either in total or annually, but does not specifically address locational aspects. Techniques involved may range 7-4 METCALF 8, EDDY from total population or dwelling unit caps achieved through widespread "downzoning" (rezoning to require lower densities) to annual building permit limits. 2. Geographical Restraint. This approach directly regulates the location of development by identifying an area or areas where development is to occur or not occur. Generally, but not always, these systems are based on a capital improvements program for public facilities which defines service limits as the geographical restraint line, Adequate Public Facilities Requirements. This approach focuses on the availability of facilities and services necessary to support development rather than directly regulating the amount, location or rate of develop- ment. It usually consists of criteria for the most essential public facilities, such as schools, fire protection, sewer, water and roads, which must be available before a development is approved. Utilizing this approach requires heavy reliance on a capital improvements program to determine where and when these facilities are provided and therefore, where, when and in what amount growth is to occur. Downzoning. This approach limits the amoun t and rate of growth by reducing, through zoning the allowable density of an area, or conceivably the entire town. 7-5 METCALF & EDDY It does not specifically control -the location of development which does occur. On a town-wide basis., this approach would be vulnerable to successful legal challenge. Purchase of Development Rights. This approach involves first, the separation of the right to develop land from the right.of ownership, and sale of the right to develop to the Town or other group which would not exercise these development rights and would preserve the property in its natural state. This is an effective way of taking land out of the market, yet at the same time, compensating the owner for the loss in value. This approach should also be utilized in combination with a reduced real estate tax of th e property. Needless to say, this approach is costly and., as a result, implemented on selective locations. However, the tIax revenues produced 'by the Pilgrim II plant make this approach reasonable for Plymouth. These revenues could be used to purchase development rights necessary to achieve Town goals. Existing Land Use Regulations. The existing land use' control system, while deficient in being abl e to mitigate Pilgrim =impacts, provides an adequate foundation to adopt the above types of regulations, In addition, the existing zoning by-law is based upon 7-6 METCALF & EDDY the Village Centers concept and therefore enhances that Town goal. This and the existing regulations and practices are also quite effective in the protection of the Town's environmental resources. The process of evaluation and selection of these approaches and where and how they will be applied in.Plymouth is presently in process. This evaluation and subsequent action should result in adoption of a town-wide growth management system at the Ap ril 1980 town meeting. Mitigating Measures Unique to Pilgrim II. There are a number of measures, not expected to specifically be part of the town-wide growth management system which would tend to enhance the positive impacts of Pilgrim 11 and reduce-the negative effects. These are discussed below. To reduce growth due to the relocation of construction and operation personnel in Plymouth, the Town should encourage Boston Edison: 1. To recruit construction and operation workers from within commuting distance and provide, in cooperation with local unions, a job training program as needed to local job applicants so that they can obtain skills necessary to work at the plant; 2. To require Boston Edison to provide mobile homes for households on their property. This would reduce t he pressure on the rental housing market and the units could be removed when the plant is complete; 7-7 METCALF & EDDY 3. To provide a van- or car-pooling program for construc- tion workers who might consider relocating to Plymouth as an alternative to a long daily individual commute by automobile. The Town, either through its own agencies (e.g., Indus- trial Development Commission) or private gr oups (Chamber of Commerce), should also avoid publicity that gives po tential home- buyers.the expectation of getting more for their money by living in a Town where two nuclear plants provide substantial tax revenues. Schedule for Mitigating Measures It is expected that the town-wide growth management system will be placed before the 1980 Town Meeting for enactment. This positive action would effectively implement the most substantive aspects of the mitigating measures and well in advance of the Pilgrim II growth pressures. Discussions regarding the measures unique to Pilgrim II should begin with Boston Edison immediately. 7-8 METCALF & EDDY REFERENCES REFERENCES i. Policy Research Associates, Socioeconomic Impacts: Nuclear. Power Plant Siting for Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1977 2. Susskind, Lawrence and O'Hare, Michael, Managin& the Social and Economic Imp .acts of Energy Development. MIT Energy impacts Project, 1-9-77- 3. Purdy, Bruce et al., A Post Licensing Study of Community Effects at Two Operating Nuc1ear YoWer 'Flarit's' - 'Final Report. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 1977 4. Bjornstad., D.J., Fiscal ImEacts Associated with Power Reactor Siting: A Paired Case Study, Energy DivFs-ion, Oak Ti-dgeNational Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 1977 5. Sanderson, Debra and O'Hare, Michael, Predicting the Local Impacts of En r y Develo2ment: A Critical Guide to @'orecasting ethods and Models. MIT Energy Impacts Project, 1977 6. Old Colony Economic Development District,, Overall Economic Development Program, Update and Progress Report, June 1978, and personal communication with Old Colony Planning Council staff, August 1979 7. Boston Edison Co., Final Environmental Statement Related to the Proposed Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station Unit 2, 1�Tg-- 8. Isard, Walter et al., Regional Economic Impacts of Nuclear Power Plants. Energy Policy Project, Regional Science Department, University of Pennsylvania, 1976 9. Metcalf & Eddy, Technical Memorandum 1No. 1. Range of Future Demand, Plymouth Comprehensive Plan, dated 1979. 10. Personal communication, Robert Tis., Boston Edison, July 28, 1979 11. These assumptions were derived by Metcalf & Eddy, based on conversations with Plymouth officials and expenditure patterns of Massachusetts residents. 12. Gamble, H.B. et al Effects of Nuclear Power Plants on Communit a@a Residential Property Values, Fin T Growth eUn-iversity for Nuclear,Regul .atory tp-o-rt, Pennsylvania StaE Commission, 1979 METCALF EDDY 13. Personal communication, Paul Sullivan and Ronald Fe'rrioli, Plymouth realtors, July 25, 1979. 14. Town of Plymouth, Board of Selectmen and Planning Board, "Goals for Plymouth: A Report of the Plymouth Massachusetts Goals-Setting Process, 1977-78". May 1978, With consulting assistance from John Brown Associates, Boston. Mass. 15 Old Colony Planning Council, A Basis for Growth Management, draft report, 1979. METCALF & EDDY I I I I I I I APPENDIX I Annotated Bibliography I APPENDIX ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY Bjornstad, D.J.,, Fiscal Iuacts Associated with Power Reactor Siting: A Paire'd Case-Sttidy. Energy Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. 1977. Examines fiscal impacts associated with siting nuclear power stations, specifically the ability of the community to raise revenues through property tax, the uses to which tax revenues are applied, and tax rate decision making. Plymouth, Massachusetts and Waterford, Connecticut, are the two case study communities whose public/private sector fiscal impacts were monitored. Booz Allen & Hamilton., Inc., A Procedures Manual for Assessing the Socioeconomic Impact of-@ @h6 arid' 'Operation of Coal Utilization Faeflities-in the Old We*st Region for the Old West Regional Commission. Boston Edison, Co., Final Environmental Statement Related to the Proposed Pilgrim Nuclear Power St'a:t1on Unit 2. 1974. Data on socioeconomic impacts is limited in scope and based on impacts associated with Pilgrim I. Provides background iformation on plant construction and operating characteristics. Brookhaven National Laboratory, Preliminary Assessment of a Hypothetical Nuclear Energy enFe-r-7n New ier@Ee ERergy Policy Analysis Group, BNL, Upton, N.Y., 1975. Chapters IV, V and VI address institutional and political issues, taxation implications and land use issues and how impacts can be forecasted. Energy Facilities Siting Council, EFSC Staff'Review and Findings: Northeast Nuclear Energ y Company@s S .oc,ioeconomic Impact Analysis of the P'ropo*se-d*'-- F!ontague Nuclear Station,, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, 1977. A critique of methodologies used to predict socioeconomic impacts of the proposed Montague plant. Compares known Pilgrim I impacts with projected Montague impacts. A-1 METCALF & EDDY Energy Impact Associates,,Social Impact Assessment, Monitoring and Management by t e ectric Energy Indilstry prepared for Atomic Industrial Forum, 1977. State-of-the-practice study describes current practices and strengths of assessments done for energy facilities nation- wide. Good discussion of public and private sector impact analysis. Finsterbusch, Kurt et. al., Methodology of Social Impact Assess ment., Dowden Hutchinson & ss, Inc., Stroudsberg,, Pa., 1977. Gamble, H.B. et al, Effects of Nuclear Power Plants on Community Growth and Residential Property Values, Final Repo'R., nsylvania State University for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1979. Analysis of time series data showed that the average annual growth rates of total assessed values in host municipalities were greater than growth rates in other communities within 20-mile radius of nuclear power plants. Harbridge House, Inc., The Social and Economic Impact of a Nuclear Power Plant Upo-n-76ntague, Rissachusett't arid the Surrounding Area. Boston,, mass., 1974. Uses case studies of other nuclear plant towns, including Plymouth, to analyze potential impacts on community life, land use., economic development, tax/serVice levels, and construction impacts. Isard, Walter et al, Regional 'Economic ImEacts of Nuclear Power Plants. Energy Policy Project Regional Science Department, University of Pennsylvania, 19@6. Describes methodologies for estimating impacts during con- struction and operation phases. Prospects for co-location of industry and,scale of induced population growth are analyzed. Multiplier and input-output analysis explained. Krutilla, John V. et al, The Regional Economic and Fiscal Im2acts of Energy Resource Development: 'A 'Gase' Study *of Northern Great Plains Coal Resources 'for the Puture, 197b. Econometric modeling too complex for this project. A-2 METCALF & EDDY Policy Research Associates, Socioeconomic Impacts: Nuclear Power Plant Siting for Office of Nuclear Regulatory Reseirch, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions 1977 Assembles literature on socioeconomic impact analysis for energy facilities and industrial developments to provide tools for analyzing socioeconomic impacts of nuclear power stations. Describes regional distribution of multiplier effects. Purdy, Bruce et al.0 A Post Licensina StuU of Community Effects at Two OperatinR Nuclear Pow'er Flants - Final XeDort, Oak Midge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., M7 A profile of Plymouth, Massachusetts and Waterford, Connec- ticut's experience as host communities for nuclear plants, focusing on social, economic and political impacts during both construction and operating phases. Study concludes that construction impacts were minor due to dispersal of workers in commutershed. Fiscal impacts of increased property tax base led.to professionalization of local government and increased attention to growth issues. Rose, Judahs Pilgrim I & II: A Case Studx in Energy Facility Siting, MIT Energy Impacts Project, 1979 Explains public reaction and government review processes associated with siting Pilgrim I and the proposed Pilgrim II plants. Sanderson, Debra and OtHarej Michael Predictina the Local Impacts of Energy Development: A Corltica'l Guide to 7o-recasting 'Methods and Models. MIT Energy Impacts ProJects.1977 Introduction to predictive models and how they can be applied to assessing "boomtown" impacts. Schuller, C. Richard A Generalized Public Budget Analysis, Oak s Ridge National Laboratory, 1976 Describes a model building strategy for assessing fiscal impacts of energy facilities. Used statistical analysis to isolate variables which affect local revenues and expendi- tures during construction and operation phases. Stenejehn, Erik Forecasting the Local Economic Im acts of " 7@-ev-elop Energy Resource Ment: A Meth @@o cal'Ap@rF_a Regional Studies Programs Argonne National Laboratory, 1975 Economic base theory used to forecast direct, indirect and induced employment. A-3 METCALF EDDY Susskind, Lawrence and O'Hare, Michael "Managing the Social and Economic Impacts of Energy Development. MIT Energy Impacts Project, 1977 Strategies for facility siting to minimize "boomtown" effect. Tennessee Valley Authority Hartsville Nuclear Plants, Socio- economic Monitoring and Mitigation Report, 1979 Includes detailed survey of impacts. A-4 METCALF EDDY NOAA COASTAL SERVICES CTFI LIBRARY 3 6668 14110379 8