[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
Maines Changing Face July, 1989 COASTAL ZONE INFORMATION CENTER Prepared for The Commission on Maines Future A. Will HB 3525 .M2 M35 1989 3525 1989 Go 4e. MAINE'S CHANGING FACE/ A Demographic Study Ica Of Maine's Future Population Prepared by Joseph McGonigle Executive Director, Commission on Maine's Future July, 1989 FOREWORD. The face of Maine's population is changing - and with those changes come new challenges for Maine's future. Recognizing how we are changing as a people can aid us in developing a vision for Maine's 21st Century which anticipates and responds to the shifting priorities, values and expec- tations of the Mainers of tomorrow. Maine's Changing Face is a study of the state's changing demographics which are destined to have significant impacts on the economy, resources and lifestyles of the future. The Commission on Maine's Future undertook this analysis to assist the state's decision makers in understanding the need for long-term policy initiatives to meet the demands of a changing population. To assist us in our study, the Commission drew upon Census data, independent demographic analysis and original research. Our study is not a forecast nor prediction of Maine's future. It does, however, identify population forces already in motion and emerging trends which could dramatically change the face of Mainers in the future. The following is a brief summary of our major findings: 0 Maine's population growth is slowing but the number of new households is increasing twice as fast as the population, mostly as a result of internal population, not inmigration of people from outside Maine. 0 This trend - combined with a continuing migration (again mostly internal) to traditionally rural Maine communities, rather than urban centers - will place enormous pressures on housing, infrastructure and environmental quality in the future. 0 Both of these phenomena suggest that Mainers must recognize their own contribution to a deterio rating quality of life in our state rather than narrowly focusing on the impacts of people "from away." 0 Maine's population is aging as fewer children are born, as older Mainers live healthier, extended lives and as the bulging baby boom generation matures. 0 A shrinking proportion of young people will affect Maine's expanding economy by slowing growth in the labor force that will be needed to sustain economic prosperity. Business' response to this phenomenon may include greater reliance on technology and recruitment of workers from outside the state. 0 An aging population will affect the state's "consumption profile" of goods and services, shifting the emphasis from youth-oriented markets to health care, affordable housing, mass transit and services for the elderly. 0 Nearly three-quarters of Maine's households will have'no children by the year 2010 which will dramatically affect how future Mainers invest their time, energy and money. Children could, become the major disadvantaged class of the 21st Century. 0 Baby boomers will be the predominant population force of the future and will continue to place unprecedenteddemands on public and private institutions and markets as they age. 0 More than a third of future Mainers will be "from away" and will continue to have a major impact on the state's economic, social and cultural life. 0 Mainers of the early 21st Century will most likely have differing value systems and priorities than their predecessors - less traditional, more liberal on social issues and more likely to trust government and to participate in it. 0 Maine will enjoy a 10 to 15 year period of relative calm, economic prosperity and stability before Maine's institutions and consumer markets feel,the full impact of the shifting needs and priorities of a large-scale aging population - time in which to prepare for the cr-unch. The following report details these findings and others as well as suggests possible future scenarios resulting from the emerging and ongoing demographic forces that are already shaping the face of Maine. The Commission on Maine's Future hopes that this report will serve as a useful tool for policymakers and for all Maine people who must think and act with foresight if we are to choose, rather than inherit, Maine's Future. Annette Ross Anderson, Chair Commission on Maine's Future PART 1 TRENDS IN THE MAINE POPULATION SECTION 1. OVERVIEW Maine has no greater resource than its people and no more Maine's Relative important force for change. This study looksat Maine's changing Population population in the closing years of the 20th Century, and in the % NE % us 12- opening years of the 21 St. While these changes also hold implica- 10- .0.8 tions for life in the state after the year 2010, longer term issues are 8- -0.6 beyond the scope of our study and will be noted only in passing. .0.4 4 2 0.2 Maine's population history has been one of slow growt 0 19W 1950 1986 0 h and long term stability. Growth has been steady since the Great As% NE As% US Depression and in recent years there has been a slight acceleration after 1970. Because of the long term stability of this history, recent Figure 1 population growth has appeared rapid from an in- state perspective Maine's population Is not but the pace of growth in Maine has been slower than the pace ex- growing as rapidly as the perienced in the rest of the United States. populations of New England and the U. S. but the pace has picked up in recent years Yet Maine has been closing the gap by which it has tradition- ally lagged far behind the nation and the New England I region, Source: U. S. Census primarily because growth has slowed dramatically in some other parts of the' country. Since 1970, growth in Maine has outpaced the rate of change in the urbanized states of southern New England and has drawn to within a few percentage points of the national rate of population growth. Looking ahead, population growth will con- tinue in Maine into the 2 1 st Century, but at a slower rate than we have experienced in the recent past. Maine's population is not only growing in numbers. It is also changing in its demographic characteristics - the mix of age, gender, social and economic backgrounds that both unite - and separate -the people of the state. Demographic change has been 1 in evidence in the state'since the close of the Second World War, when an entire generation of returning veterans simultaneously began to rebuild their civilian lives and form homes and farnilies in a tremendous burst of fertility that continues to resonate in Mai ne life and culture after forty years. The changing characteristics of Maine's Changing Maine people resulting from this phenomenon will continue to Age Groups influence our social, cultural and economic lives for an even longer 400000 period into the future. 350000 300000 250000 Maine's changing population is the foundation of the state's 2000M 150000 future, holding many implications for the quality and vitality of life 50000 '00000 in the state through the coming twenty years. Three trends will be 0 of particular importance: 70&+ 55-69 35-54 18-34 0-17 N 1986 EJ 2010 Figure 2 0 Population growth will continue to affect Maine's rural character as housing dev- Maine's demographic structure elopment, urban congestion and an evolving Is undergoing a major change as the populous baby boom gen- pattern of suburban settlement reshape much eration ages. of the state. Source: U. S. Census 0 Maine's population is aging - a phenomenon that will significantly affect every aspect of Maine life, as well as shift our public, family and economic priorities. 0 The growing influence of the "baby boore' generation and of recent inmigrants to Maine will strongly affect many of the social, political and economic decisions that will shape our state's future in the 21st Century. Understanding these trends can help us to better anticipate the inevitable changes facing our state, to reduce the potential for conflict and to create a common vision for Maine's future which best reflects the values, priorities and expectations of the people of Maine. 2 Population Dynamics and Un derlying Trends Population dynamics are where the past and the future intersect. All population processes reduce to four very simple events. People are born. They mature. They move about geo&aphi- cally. They die. The Baby Boom and Baby Bust The events which shaped today's population occurred in the 24(m Annual Births past some in the quite distant past while today's events will, 220M t 2 in turn, shape events far into the future. Perhaps the most significan 0000 18000.. example in the 1980s is the "bulge" in the. population due to a 16" disproportionate number of people between the ages of 27 and 44. 14OW This mirrors the high birth rates of forty years ago following World i2o0o. War H. 10000 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 Birth rates remained high for seventeen years, from 1945 Figure 3 through 1962. Because the birth rates remained so high for so long, The Baby Boom of 40 years ago the generations which preceded and followed are much smaller. and the decline In birth rates of Today the bulge occurs in the middle years of the population. We 25 years agowill continue to,set the pattern for demographic can project this bulge will move upward in age as the people who change far Into the future. comprise it mature a trend popularly referred to as the middle Source: U. S. Census; Maine Office of aging of America. Vital Statistics The generation born during that seventeen years the baby boom - has placed extraordinary pressures, from cradle onward, on public institutions an&private markets alike. In the Fifties and Sixties, the bulge in young and adolescent baby boomers placed ever more pressure on schools -and public education. In the Sixties and Seventies, young adult baby boomers shifted the demand to colleges and thejob market. In the Seventies and Eighties, pressure has shifted to the housing market. Beginning about the year 2010, this disproportionately large generation will begin to reach retire- ment age. Thus, a population event which took place twenty to forty years ago will challenge society twenty yearsfirom now as it adjusts to an exceptionally large retire ment-age population. Ten to twenty years after they retire, the baby boomers will.,trigger an even more 3 significant challenge as they begin to put pressure on the systems that provide hospital and geriatric care. Other Trends Housing and The baby boom represents one of the fundamental trends Population Unit. underlying the population dynamics of the period surrounding the (000) (000) 14M - 700 turn of the 21st Century. Five others are of equal significance., 1200- 600 1000- 500 800 -'0*00 400 0 A sharp drop in the birth rates during the Great 600- 300 400 200 200 100 Depression and WWR creating a scarcity today of 1960 1980 1990 2000 2010 10 of persons between the ages of 45 to 55. Population Housing 0 A sharp decline in fertility over the past twenty the Figure 4 five years resulting in fewer total births in total population, smaller families and a higher Fewer people living In each proportion of households with no children at all. 'household have created a de- mand for housing that has been growing twiceas fast as the These two phenomena bracket the exceptionally population large baby boom with exceptionally small gen- Source: U. S. Census; Maine Dept of erations immediately younger and older. Economic & Community Development 0 The migration of persons from the urbanized core to the fringe of metropolitan areas both into Maine and internally within the state over the past twenty years reversing an earlier pattern of eco- nomic and population decline in the fringe areas through most of the 20th Century. o A sharp drop over the past twenty years in the average size of households resulting in' a growth in the number of housing units twice as fast as that of the population. o A sharp decline in the death rate of elderly per- sons over the past twenty five years has meant more elderly surviving to very great ages. 4 None of these six underlying trends is unique to Maine.- To take the case of migration as an example, one county-in Florida, Palm Beach County, has experienced.inmigration of 1,800, people per day during the late 1980s and net migration of, 900 people per day. Daily inmigration to Maine, in contrast, has been less, than.100 persons for the whole state and net daily migration has been under 10. Yet inmigration has become a major focus of public concern in The Maine Population Maine through the past fifteen years, entering debates over afford- (000) From 1790 able housing, land use, competition for jobs, property taxation and 14oo Trcnd growth management with an emotional charge that is surprising in 1200 comparison to the real size of the phenomenon. It maybe, therefore, low that these common national trends have worked themselves out in 800 History Maine in ways that are much more visible against the backdrop of 600 the state's small population base and traditional isolation. 400 200 In the projections that follow, these underlying trends, 0 which are based on our understanding of the past, will be used to 1790 1850 1910 1970 2010 develop assumptions about the future. In some cases, these assump- tions would be difficult to challenge. The baby boom generation is Figure, 5 unusually large. It will almost certainly continue to bulge its way our assumptions about change in through the age cohorts well into the next century. The Depression- Maine's future are based on the behavior of trends that extend WWII generation and the generationz born during the Vietnam War into our past. are unusually small. They will almost certainly continue to have the Source: U. S. Census opposite effect on the age structure of the population. In, other cases,'however, certain assumptions -are open to alternative interpretations. Assumptions about behavior are espe- cially problematic and four of the underlying demographic trends describe patterns of behavior, although they are stable patterns that have been in place for the past twenty to thirty years. These include: The Fertility Rate. Will the fertility rate increase in the future? Will women choose to have more children? The Census Bureau projections used in this study assume a slight increase in fertility through the coming decades. The Rate of Net Migration. Will inmigration and outmi- gration continue in the future at the same rate as they have through 5 the past twenty five years? Will inmigration increase as America's cities become more crowded? Will outmigration decrease as Maine's economy becomes more prosperous? The base case projections in this study assume that interstate migration of all kinds will slow in the f@ture as the nation's population ages and becomes Population Growth more stable. But alternative scenarios are also considered, which Scenarios assume that inmigration will continue into Maine at the present rate (000) Change per Decade 110. or will increase. 100 - 90 80 The Rate of Internal Migration. Will Maine residents 70 60 themselves continue to move from urban areas to suburbs and from 50 40 built-up centers to the open countryside at the same rate as they have 30 20 done in the past? This study assumes they will and projects 1970s 1980s 1990S 20ON population changes around the state in proportion to the patterns C=us - Migration - Ptospenty established in the 1980s. Figure 6 The Decline in Household Size. Will the decline in household size and the increase in the number of dwelling units Uncertainty about how population forces will behave In the future required to house the population continue into the future9 Will the generates a range of possible factors that influence household organization continue to fragment growth scenarios. the population into smaller and smaller units? This study assumes Source: U S. Census; Maine Fore- they will, but that the, rate of fragmentation will slow from what it casting and Simulation Model has been in the recent past. As a result of these assumptions, the projections t hat follow are notforecasts but informed guesses. They are presented as such to assist us in anticipating the potential for significant change and impacts on Maine's environment, economy and institutions. 6 SECTION 2 POPULATION GROWTH In October 1988, the Census Bureau projected the Maine The Maine Population: Three Scenarios population from 1990 through 2010. These projections, and the (000) ToW Popdati- Census Bureau's population estimatesfor 1986, are the sources of i4oo the demographic projections whichfollow. 1350 - 1300 1250 - 1200 - 1150 Population growth will slow in Maine in the future but the 100 :050 present pace of growth may continue into the middle orlate 1990s. 1000. Slower growth after the turn of the century will be endemic, not only 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 in Maine but throughout the U.S. By the year 2050, the Census Cemus - Migmtim - Pm.sperky Bureau projects a population decline for the first time in the nation's history. For slow growth states like Maine, declining population Figure 7 could begin a generation earlier than in the nation as a whole. Maine's population will rise to between 1 .3 million and 1.4 In the 18 years since 1970, 158,000 people have been added million people by the year 2010, to the Maine population which now stands at 1,192,000. Growth depending on migration patterns In the future. Three scenarios throughout the period occurred at the rate of nearly 8,800 people per outline the different possibilities, year or about five-sixths of one percent annually. In the 22 years each differing by about two percent In total population after leading up to the year 2010, about the same number of people are 20 years. likely to be added to Maine's population but growth is likely to slow Source: U. S. Census to between 7,000 and 8,000 people per year -- a rate of about two- thirds of one percent annually. Total population in 2010 is likely to be around 1,350,000. Two components drive changes in population (1) natural increase or the number of births minus the number of deaths, and (2) net migration or the number of people moving into the state minus the number of people moving out. Natural increase is by far the dominant component in most places, including Maine, 7 because the size of the population base far exceeds the number of people moving into or out of the state. Maine's Changing Growth and Maine's Population Base Mortality Rate 12-- (Deaths W thousand) The age of the population helps to determine the rate of natural increase. Growth can be expected to slow,when there are large numbers of the very old in proportion to the total population, 10 because high death rates among the elderly offset growth arising from births. Growth can be expected to accelerate when there are 9.. large numbers of young adults in proportion to the total population, because births most often occur in young families. 8 1960 1970 1980 1WO 20W 2010 Two other factors also influence the rate of natural increase Figure 8 by moderating the number of births and deaths that occur in the different age sectors of the population. Maine's elderly population has been living longer, healthier lives in recent years, helping to cut the mort .ality rate by nearly one fifth Longer life expectancy, brought on by medical and other in 30 years. In the future, longev- improvements, reduces the death rate expected in an elderly popu- Ity will continue to rise but so will the number of elderly people in lation of a givenage. Fewer.people will die'in their seventies, for the state population. These two example,' and will live into their eighties. In any given year, there trends will push the mortality rate -7 back up again, but not so high as will be relatively fewer deaths to. subtract from total births, which In the past. allows growth to rise through natural increase. The death rate per Source: U. S. Census; Maine Office of thousand people has declined by nearly eighteen percent since 1960 Vital Statistics and, despite the increasing proportion of elderly people in the overall. population in the coming twenty years, will remain nearly twelve percent below the 1960 level in the year 2010. The second moderating factor is the fertility rate, or how many of the young women in a given population choose to bear children. In the 1970s, there were large numbers of young women in the population, but many declined or limited childbearing. The fertility rate was low and population growth through natural in- crease was much slower than it might have been. In the 1980s, even fewer women are having children and it is this phenomenon which will have the greatest, impact on overall growth in Maine's future. 8 The key factor behind the slower growth projected for Maine in the 21st Century, therefore, is the continued decline in the fertility rate that began in the early 1960s. In 1960, there were 36 infants for every thousand Maine adults. In 1986 there were 19. As a result of the steep decline in fertili ty during the Sixties, Seventies and Eighties, there will be 15 percent fewer young women in the Wome n .18 to 29 In prime childbearing age group by the year 2010. The Maine Population Piojections through 2010 120000 Although biologically capable of bearing children from ages 15'through 44, most women in American society have their 11sow children between the ages of I I and 29 . Three quarters of he births 110" in Maine from 1983 through 1986 were to mothers 18 to 29. 10SO00 100000 The small Vietnam War generation born between the mid- 95000 Sixties and the mid-Seventies is now beginning to enter this prime parenting age group and will continue to dominate birth rates in the 90000 state through much of the next twenty years. The small size of this 1 1986 1990 1995 2000 200S 2010 generation assures that there will be relatively few women Figure 9 available tobearchildren through the period and therefore relatively few children born. If these women, like their predecessors, also The fall in fertility rates nearly 30 years ago has reduced the choose to have fewer children per family - in other words if the population of young women who fertility rate continues to remain low - slow population growth might become mothers today. This trend combines with the new could only be overturned by radical changes in inmigration or in social standard of low fertility to longevity. guarantee a sharp decline In the number of children born In the future. Other marked changes in the age structure of Maine society Source: U. S. Census will also occur by 2010. Much of the growth and change in Maine's population is occurring now. One third of all the growth that will take place in the next two decades will occur by 1990 and one half by 1995. The population under age 40 will decline by 78,000 per- sons; the population over age 40 will increase by 216,000 persons. The proportion of the population 40 and older will, as a conse- quence, increasefrom 38 percent of the total in 1986 to 50 percent in 2010. Almost half of the shift over age 40 as well will occur by the end of the present decade. f Maine's oldest citizens will also increase continuously in numbers through the quarter century between 1986 and 2010. 9 Those age 80 and older will represent a larger share of the state population in 2010 than they did in 1986 -'their increasing longevity a refl ection of;rapid and continuing improvements in medical technology, but also reflecting the fruits of long term social investments in nutrition, in public health and in old age assistance The Components of through most of the 20th, Century. But the population between the Population Growth ages of 70 to 79 will make up a smaller share of the state in 2010, cemus S=ado 100" reflecting the small size of the Depression era generation, which 80" - will reach age 70 at the tum of the century. 60000 40000- 20000 20000 0 GroWth and Migration _400001 1960s 1970s 1980s 19%s 2OWs 0 Gromh N In== 13 Migmthm Migration has driven about one-third of the growth in Maine over the past quarter century and is likely to become much more Figure 10 important in the future as it begins to account for half and even more than half of the growth in the state's population. Overall growth results from the combination of migration and the Three kinds of migration affect the rate of population natural Increase of the native population. In the future, migra- growth in Maine - inmigration or people moving in from out tion will become the most Impor- of state, outmigration or Mainers moving out of the state, and net tant factor for sustaining growth In Maine. migration, which represents the difference between the number of Source: U. S. Census people moving in and the number moving out. Migration patterns -have been quite stable in Maine on average since the middle to late 1960s. Most of the variation - and thus the factor controlling overall growth @ has been in outmigra- and th ey have tion. Most of the people who leave Maine are young tended to leave in the greatest numbers during times of poor economic conditions in the state. Average outmigration through the past quarter century has been about 35,000 people a year. That number could rise to about 37,000 or 38,000 when times are hard or it could fall to about 3 1,000 or 32,000 when the economy improves. The pattern of inmigration is very similar to outmigration in Maine, but there is less variation in the numbers.from year to year. Average inmigration through the past quarter century has also been about 35,000 people a year, regardless of economic conditions. The 10 m --4 M 0 jo :3 r) ZO :-4 0 0 -4 O@ Un 41 W N - U) 0. a 't r- 0, 0, A U, w N N 8 (3 0 a 0 a 0 CD %A cm CD g 0, 0 @V, X, '0 %.n 4' Z- -V, 8 a) w C) CD 41 C) C, un 10 (D CD CA M) a rv coo CD LA C) CD, (D col -C, C; 00 CD 0 X 3C 3C 'D - 10 Z 3C 'o LA C :1 r -1 cr 03 10 0* W (3 z 0 m 0 m ae U) 0 0' m m CD, (D 0 M FX (D ae rj z L4 tw c) m NJ 't m 3 U) a) (D 2) ILI"j 0 13 1%0 CL 0 (D N Z@t -P@ = (A -0 "a 5. =r < < < 0 0 0 ED 24 :7 z n C") fD 0 tr ch a@e CD@ a 3c *e 0' m @25 ;v M %.n a m n ,7 3i 0 0 0 0 x 00 0 rt ty 0) (A 1 0 3C '(D 10 x *e D 0 n c 0 (A 0- a4 m 0 0 0 0 < z c ale It rt -h n m r+ m (n 0 () T '0 M aR (1) co Z; =r -3 :3 - CL (D 0 n = a 0 CD 0 0 0. Ln I Q N (A a-e ol ale 10 0 w 0 r+ 0 10 CD :3 00 10 @o Ln 10 C. OD %.n CD %R C ale C7 combined effect of stable inmigration and relatively stable outmi- gration has been a fairly constant population gain from net migra- tion of about 3,600 persons a year on average since the mid-1960s and this stable pattern is continuing in the 1980s, when viewed within the long term trend. The Components of Over shorter periods of time, migration patterns are likely to Population Growth Inmigradon S=afio fluctuate around the long term average. In the 1970s, for example, 10DM - go". - AdOMMI.- net migration averaged about 4,000 persons per year before 1975 60DOO . . ....... compared to about 3, 100 persons per year after 1975. In the early 40000 2 0000 1980s, net migration fell to about 1,500 persons per year but rose to .. /X 0 about 6,000 per year after 1985. Preliminary figures for 1988 show -20" net inmigration soaring to nearly 13,000 in what appears to be a -400W- 196N 1970s 1980s 1990s 2"s short term aberation principally affecting York County. 0 C@owth E h=aw 0 Migation In the late Seventies, net migration was below average be- Figure 11 cause inmigration was only about 25,000 persons per year. In the early Eighties it was low because large numbers of Mainers left the The stable migration patterns of the past twenty five years are state during the severe recession. In the late Eighties, high levels of projected out for the next twenty to create the Inmigration Scenario net inmigration reflect, in part, the influence of economic prosper of growth slowing only slightly ity in keeping young Maine adults in the state, and in part, the effect from the present rate. of unprecedented suburban growth in York County, as northern Source: U. S. Census; State Planning Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire housing markets spill office across the state border. Yet over each of the decades, these short term fluctuations averaged out. Net migration for the entire decade of the 1970s was 35,400 or 3540 persons a year. So far during the 1980s, net migration is estimated at 32,650 for an average of 4080 persons a year. Three Growth Scenarios The Census Bureau projections cited at the start of this section provide the baseline growth scenario for this study. The Bureau projects an increase of 116,000 people in the Maine popu- lation by the year 2010, with a rate of growth about 5,300 persons 11 per year. Total population would rise to 1,308,000 at an annual rate M! only half that of the past two decades. This scenario rests on the assumption that the baby boom generation will become more geographically stable as its members The Components of pass age 40 between 1986 and 2002. Traditionally, residential and Prosperity scenario Population Growth geographic mobility tend to fall off sharply after age 40 as individu- 100000.. als strengthen home, family, career and community bonds. Thus, 80000-- the Census Bureau projects net migration into the state to slow to 60000-. about half the levels experienced during the 1970s and 1980s. As 40000-- 20000 a result of this slowdown in inmigration, the Census Scenario 0 ts the lowest level of growth considered in this study - just -20M projec -40000 2000s under 10 percent over more than two decades. Despite this slow- 0 incresse 0 Migration down, however, inmigration will become the largest component of 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 0 Growth I growth in Maine in the opening years of the next century. Figure 12 Our Inmigration Scenario projects additional growth by Under the Prosperity Scenario, assuming that migration patterns will continue to be stable in the growth slows only after the turn future. This scenario adds the long term average of 3600 inmigrants of the century as Maine's expand- Ing economy keeps young adults to the Maine population each year to produce a total population of In the state to meet the demand 1,346,000 in the year 2010 - 39,000 higher than the Census for labor. Scenario total. Maine would add 154,000 persons by 2010 pushing Source: U. S. Census; Maine Foresacting and Sirnulation Model the growth rate up, to almost 13 percent, compared with the 15 percent growth experienced since 1970. The Inmigration Scenario projects an intermediate level of growth, under which inmigration would overtake natural increase as the largest component of growth by the mid- 1990s. Despite the lessening of geographic mobility associated with an aging population and the long term stability of migration patterns in Maine (the assumptions that underlie our first two scenarios) a third scenario, projecting increased migration, incor- porates the high net migration pattern of the late 1980s into its long- term assumptions, This high growth scenario is based on Maine's potential forjob and economic growth, and the recognition that the labor demand of Maine's emerging economy would require a larger lob population than the state, at long term levels of inmigration, could supply. The Prosperity Scenario assumes a 40 percent increase in 12 the long term migration pattern to supply this needed labor. This scenario generates a total population 1,369,000 in 2010, 61,000 higher than the baseline projections. Maine would gain an addi- tional 177,000 people and would grow at nearly the 15 percent rate of the past eighteen years. The difference between these scenarios is ultimately a problem of timing the slowdown in Maine's population growth that is made inevitable by the underlying changes in our demographic structure. Under the Census Scenario, the slowdown would occur in the early to middle 1990s -- a prospect made unlikely by the current level of net migration. Under the Inmigration Scenario, the slowdown would occur around the year 1995 -- earlier if there is a severe recession in the early 1990s; later if York County housing prices lag behind those of northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Under the Prosperity Scenario, the slowdown would be held off until the turn of the century. The longeviety of the late 1980s pattern of net inmigration is the key to which of these scenarios actually develops. 13 -No.. KK: E0 NOW ............... .... ...... .... ...... 1@ .kN :xj.* .......... . ..... ....... .. . nk. .',X0, E I&I MIX ...1-1--.- ........... K0. !'i K@ K cy ........ ............. te XtX. MAINE AS FIVE SOCIOECONOMIC REGIONS 14 SECTION 3 PATTERNS, OF SETTLEMENT Maine is the least-dcnsely populated state east of the Missig- Population Densities sippi and its settlement pattern is severely skewed to the southern In New England Pmons pcr Squan Mile part of the state in general and to a transportation corridor extending MEE 15 miles to either side of the Interstate 95 highway system. The Vr population is settled at the rateof 39 persons per square mile in the us NH state as a whole, 54 persons per square mile in the 1-95 Corridor and N.Eng. 209 persons per square mile in the three counties - York, Cumber- Cr land and Sagadahoc @ that make up Southern Maine. MA RI F_ Land use in the state reflects the .se densities. Only two L_ 0 2W 40D 6@O 8 percent of Maine's land area is developed in the sense of being actually built upon, of being physically covered by houses, roads, Figure 13 stores, cities, parking lots. Only eleven percent, is clear of forest Maine Is sparsely populated by cover. About half is "omanized" into communities and the other regional and even national half (home to barely 12,000 people) constitutes Maine's vast standards, due to the huge size of Its forested resource base. But unorganized territories whose forests physically dominate the north- even In the settled parts of the ern and western parts of the state. Maine's most fundamental state, densities approximate only the New England average in pattern of settlement, then, is this split into communities and Southern Maine and the U.S. wildlands. average In the 1-95 Corridor Source: Statistical Abstract of The United States Households and Housing The fundamental unit of settlement is the household often households of families, but also households of single indi- viduals and of unrelated groups. A sharp decline in household size in the past two decades has been one of the m ost important demographic trends taking place in Maine and in the nation. 'ne size of the average household in Maine dropped from 3.3'p Persons in 15 MW 1960 to 2.6 persons in 1987. Further decline is projected by the Census Bureau to 2.55 persons by 1990 and 2.26 by 2010. As households grow smaller, more houses are needed to provide, shelter for a constant level of population. When population The Shrinking grows as households shrink in size, the demand for housing is Maine Household pushed upward by both forces. in 1960, it required 300 dwelling 3.4.. Persons per Household units to house one thousand persons in Maine. By 1980, it required 3.2. 380 units to house the same one thousand persons;..by 1990, it will 3N take nearly 400., 2.6. The rapid decline in household size results primarily from 2A - three factors - growth in the elderly population, growth in the rate 2.2- of divorce and family break- up, and growth in the number of young 2 IW 1970 1980 1990 2WO 2010 people living alone. Figure 14 Maine's elderly population is up by more than two-fifths Smaller households combine with since 1960 and the single elderly population is up by one-fifth. the larger population to increase These changes mean that there are more one and two person the pressure of growth on land households,in the general population. use, traffic and the environment. Source: U.S. Census Maine's.divorce rate doubled between 1960 and 1986 and the number of divorces in the state nearly. tripled. One marriage in two in the 1980s -ends in divorce and one family in 50 breaks up every year. When such a breakup occurs, it requires two dwelling units to house the same number of persons who occupied one unit before. By 1970, the number of divorces roughly matched inmigra- tion in Maine: by 1980, the divorce numbers were more than double net migration numbers, implying the potential for four times the impact in housing markets. Between 1960 and 1980, Maine's household population increased by one sixth but the number of households nearly doubled. A similar pattern has continued in the 1980s. Between 1980 and 1987, the household population grew by 5.5 percent while the number of households grew twice asfa@t at more than I I percent. As a result, even though annual population growth has averaged only about five-sixths of one percent for nearly three decades, the 16 impact of this steady growth on the demand for housing has been radically higher. At the same time that Maine households have been growing smaller, the baby boom has been moving through its prime house- hold formation years - the ages between 18 and 44. This age group Household and increased by 53 percent - from 320,000 to 490,000 population Population Growth (000) 1.0garitunic Scale between 1960 and 1987, while the number of housing units in- 10000 creased by 57 percent, from 304,000 to 477,000 units. Little of the growth in Maine households is due to inmigration from out of state. ()ver 90 percent of the increase is solely the result of the internal low - population dynamics of shrinking household size and large num- bers of baby boomers in the housing market. 100 i 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 - Populaim - Households As a result of these combined forces, the number of permanent, year-around dwelling units has increased in Maine at an average rate of more than two percent per year for the past 27 years. Figure 15 An estimated 173,000 new units have been added to the state's housing stock for an increase in household population of 212,000 The number of households In Maine Is growing faster than the persons - meaning thatfour new units were builtfor everyfive number of people living In house- additional people. The shrinking American household, then, has holds, as the number of elderly people and of divorces Increases. lent powerful impetus to Maine's housing boom. Yet despite Source: U.S. Census; Maine Office of radical differences in housing markets, subsidization and specula- Vital Statistics tive building through the past three decades, Maine's housing economy demonstrates a structural pattern of long term stability, reflected in a consistent eight percent rate of "overbuilding" or vacancies in new housing units. These vacancies reflect a constant level of market friction stemming from the normal movements of housing consumers as they relocate from home to home or town to town. Despite the internal source of Maine's rapid housing growth, many consequences remain for land use and prices, for environ- mental impacts and for traffic. When the decline in household size is coupled with the internal, migration of Maine residents from one town to another, the pattern of rapid development and suburbaniza- tion that has so alarmed many observers in recent years becomes evident. 17 Between 1980 and 1986, there was a net flow of 26,000 Maine residents from one town to another - generally from larger to smaller places. This flow around the state of Maine residents internal migration - was two and one quarter times the net migration of out of staters into Maine. More than two-thirds of the Baby Boomers in total migration into Maine towns consists of Maine residents ThIe Housing Market moving around. At the same time, increasing numbers of families with two earners in the workforce has meant greater reliance on Housing Units commuting and increasing traffic on rural and suburban roads. 18-44 Population The combined influence on Maine municipalities of. the Total - - ----- trends toward declining household size and internal migration Population Z_ within the state has added 50,000 dwelling units statewide between (000) 0 200 400 6W goo 1000 1200 1980 and 1987 - with nearly two in five of those units added in 0 1%0 E 1987 towns of between 2,500 and 10,000 residents. One third of the housing growth has occurred in cities of greater than 10,000 Figure 16 population andjust under one third has occurred in Maine's smallest villages. In thefliture, the pace of development is likely to slow by The concentration of baby boom- about a third, from near two percent annual growth to near one ers In the age of young adulthood during the recent past accounts percent annual growth through the coming twenty years and the for much of the pressure on location of new construction is likely to be fairly evenly distributed Maine housing markets - similar to the pressure they through municipalities of different size The effective impact of placed on local school systems In the 1950s and 1960s. housing development in the future is likely to be most evident, as it has been in the past, in Maine's suburban communities, particularly Source: U.S. Census; State Planning those within the 1-95 transportation corridor. Office The regional impact of new housing development should continue to be heavily concentrated in southern counties, which are likely to absorb nearly half of the new housing units through 2010. Another third of new construction in likely to be concentrated in central and eastern regions near the 1-95 corridor, but with one new unit in five in these regions located in coastal Hancoc'k, Lincoln and Knox counties. By 2010, an estimated 130,000 new units will be built statewide at the rate of about 5,600 per year. Comparable figures for the period 1960 to 1980 were 173,000 new units added at about 6,400 per year. More than 50,000 of those new units are likely to be built in Maine's mid-size and suburban communities, about 45,000 in the cities and about 30,000 in the rural villages. 18 Housing prices, however, more than suburban growth pres- sure or traffic, have been the bellweather of intensive housing development in Maine. An analysis of new housing starts and aggregate residential investment in Maine reveals that, between 1970 and 1988, the price of an average new dwelling unit in Maine more than doubled, from $33,900 to $69,700. Yet virtually all of Housing Growth this run-up - nearly 93 percent - occurred between 1970 and in the 198N 1980, long before a crisis in affordable housing was apparent to the Trend., average Maine resident. 490000. 470000. History 450000. The unprecedented demand for housing created by the baby 430" - boom and the decline in household size represents only one dimen- 410" sion of the acceleration of prices that occurred during the 1970s. At 390000 the same time, consumer tastes and public regulatory and incentive 1980 1992 1984 11986 1;88 140 programs lead to considerable improvement in housing quality in - HousingUnits - Households Maine. In 1950, for example, half of Maine homes lacked complete plumbing facilities, while fewer than one in ten had more than one Figure 17 bathroom. By 1970, nearly one in six homes remained unplumbed and another one in six had more than a single bathroom. By 1980, New housing development slowed In Maine during the only about one home in twenty lacked plumbing, while one in five recession of the early 1980s and had multiple bathrooms. Part of the increase in housing costs in the accelerated again with returning prosperity. But the construction 1970s, then, resulted from a shift in the housing stock to deliver trend closely follows underlying more house for the money. growth In the number of house- holds, despite the short term Influence of economic conditions. During the 1980s, the unit price of new housing in Maine Source: U.S. Census; Maine Dept. of has been virtually static, up only about seven percent, despite the Economic and Community Development well-publicized and unprecedented increases in the prices of homes at the top of the market inio the six and even seven figure range. The unit price figure includes not only these high-priced homes, but all residential investment in the state arising from single and multi- family homes, manufactur6d homes, condominiums, seasonal homes and rental apartments. Behind the apparent anomaly of this finding, a number of forces have been at work on housing in Maine through the past two decades. A major factor is an apparent change in the mix of housing products being built and sold in Maine during the 1980s. While the single-family house is the standard product in the housing market, 19 many alternatives exist and the market for all these alternatives operates as a single entity. As the price of conventional single- family new construction doubled during the 1970s, consumers have apparently shifted to substitutes, including manufactured homes, condominiums, existing and rehabilitated homes and homes in less Regional Development expensive parts of the state. Indeed, physical relocation has been Of New Housing much in evidence in Maine during the past two decades and much Total Additions Sagadahoc of the pressure driving Maine residents to suburban and rural towns Oxford - and driving inmigrants into Maine - is the relatively lower cost Hancock Androscoggin of housing outside metropolitan areas. Kennebec Cumberland These substitution strategies have been operating in Maine Penobscot York 0 10" 20000 30000 to keep the average price of new housing units actually bought and N 1990 - 1987 U 1988 - 2010 sold on the market virtually immobile in the 1980s. The slowdown of real estate markets in southern Maine, price erosion in the Regional Development Portland market, and the movement of sales and development Of New Housing activity north into Lewiston-Auburn and Bangor have all worked to Total Additions =g@ undercut average new housing prices, just as the preponderance of Frank market activity in southern Maine in the 1970s worked to push S average prices rapidly higher. An increasing reliance on manufac- Knox tured housing, self-contracting and owner-building, and an increas- Lincoln ing concentration of professional and speculative building in the Aroostook 0 1000 2000 3000 40M 5030 . i limited but lucrative custom home market similarly push the unit 0 1980 - 1987 M 1988-2010 price of new dwellings toward a lower level. While the average price of new housing has been held stable Figure 18 during the 1980s, the prices of existing homes have continued to The volume of new housing rise. Between 1977 and 1987, municipal valuations estimated by construction In Maine Is concen- the Maine Bureau of Taxation have more than doubled. These trated near the major urban centers and In the suburban valuations include both new and existing homes as well as commer- counties adjacent to those cial and industrial real estate andpersofial property used in business. centers (top chart). in rural Maine, Aroostook County contin- In part, this rise in the 1980s reflects a lag period during which ues to outpace coastal develop- assessed valuations caught up with marketprices, but the remainder ment. Source: Maine Dept of Economic and of the rise must logically reflect increases in the prices of existing Community Development, State homes and business properties. Planning Office; U.S. Census Regional variation in assessed valuations is also consider- able, with York County properties more than tripling in value, 20 Cumberland County nearly tripling, while Aroostook County prop- erties rose by only half-again and Kennebec and Piscataquis Coun- ties less than doubled. Regional Growth Regional Changes The differences in regional valuations reflect underlying in valuation differences in regional growth patterns. Growth in Maine has been Sagadahoc Oxford strongly regional during the 1970s and the 1980s, with the greatest Hwcock Androscoggin emphasis on just three counties in southern Maine. Growth rates Kcenncebec have been high in localized pockets of development along the coast Benobscot Cumberland -particularly in Lincoln, Knox and Hancock counties - but these Yorrk rates measure growth from relatively small population bases, and (000)0 5 10000000 coastal growth east of the Kennebec River has had relatively little 0 1977 1997 impact on the size of the statewide population relative to the impact Regional Changes generated by southern Maine. Since 1985, growth has begun to In Valuation accelerate in the central Maine counties along the 1-95 Corridor, but Laqu even with growth moving northward, southern Maine is projected P"c""' Wash.ington to continue to drive statewide population gains in the future. Franklin Somenict Waldo The largest share of Maine's population will continue to be Knox Lincoln concentrated in the southern region, rising from 34 percent in 1980 Aroostook to 36 percent in 1990 and into the 2 1 st Century. The total population (000) 0 800000 1600000 of the region will increase by nearly 100,OW persons and, by the 0 1977 0 1987 year 20 10, nearly half a million people will live in the three counties Cumberland, York and Sagadahoc - that make up Maine's Figure 19 metropolitan core. More than half of this population will live in Increases In property valuations Cumberland County, but more than half of the growth will occur in have tracked growth In urban York County. parts of the state but appear to have outpaced development In rural Maine. The central region, comprising the length of the Kennebec Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation Valley and the Midcoast, will grow steadily from 19 percent of the state population in 1980)to 20 percent in 20 10. The total population of the region will increase by 50,000 persons to a four county total of just over a quarter million people. Half of the total will live in L= Kennebec County, which, like its regional neighbors Somerset and Knox counties, will grow by about 10,000 persons through the 21 period. The highest in crease and the fastest growth will -occur in Lincoln County. The eastern region, despite an increase of 40,000 persons, will maintain the 23 percent share of the state population that it held Growth In Maine in 1980. Nevertheless, with 300,OWpeople in 2010, the five-county Property Valuations region will remain the state's second largest. Half ofthe regional 40. (BiWons of Dollm) total will live in Penobscot County, which will gain 10,000 persons 35 - through the period. But Hancock County will gain twice that 30- number to lead the pace of growth in the region. 25 - 20 15 The western region will also hold steady at about 15 percent 10-- of the state population with the addition of about 20,000 persons. 0 Androscoggin will hold half of the nearly 200,000 regional total in 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 2010 and will, with its regional neighbors Oxford and.Franklin counties, gain between 5,000 and 10,000 persons through the period. Within this range, Androscoggin County will add the.fewest Figure 20 and Franklin County the greatest number of people. Assessed values of real and personal property In Maine have The northern region, which contains only Aroostook County, virtually tripled In ten years, principally because of rising is projected to lose population, dropping from about 8 percent to market values. about 6 percent of the state total. Nevertheless The County will Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation remain Maine's sixth-largest with a population of 75,000 in the year 2010. It should be noted, however, that this projection is likely to be the least reliable of this series, since indicators of economic growth in the Presque Isle-Caribou area during late 1988 and 1989 were simply too premature to be captured in the trend adjustments on which these projections are based. Growth in the Towns Maine's settlement pattern is also affected by the size of the municipalities in which people choose to live.., In this study, we have used three broad categories of municipal size - cities of 10,000 persons or more, towns of between 2,500 and 10,000 persons, and 22 villages of fewer than 2,500; per-sons. At this sm a1flevel of size, trend'projections have no statistical, retiability.,, an& noi at-tempt has been, made to distribute population by town,. In: 1,960; virtually half of'Maine's population, fived'ini vil- lages and another, third lived in-cifies. The, village population of the time amounted to@ close to, half a- millioni people, spread through th, e ReglonaU Growth In The Maine Population, whole state -about, the sam e number as are expecte6 to; live in@ the (WO) ccrtsus Scenario southern region albne- by 2014 500-, 400, 300, Through-, the following twenty. years,, urban to, ruraI migra- 200 look tion@ had arr. im. portant im pact on, these villages, which,, ironically, show&up?in the 19801C6nsu& as a loss,of nearly a, thirdof the village, 1980 1990 2000 2010 population.. The population,@ of 'the citie& grew, by about 50',OW but 0: South@ W. Central WEast remained at the 1960 share, of about one@ dhird of the statewi& total. 0 West 0 North The population of the towns,. meanwhile, positively, boomed-,, more than, doubling. in, population and climbing from-, a scant one fifth! of Regional Growth in the, statewide total" in. 1960, to nearly two, fifths. in 1,980. The Maine Population (WO) Prosperity Scenario 500 Some of the growth, in the towns: reflect& the effects of 400 classic post-war suburbanization, on places like Hampden and 300 200 Cumberland. But an: i, mportant part of that growth after 1970 100 reflects the new phenomenon, of urban m rural migration, or "exur- 0 980 1990 2" 2010 banization," that has transformed places, like Monmouth and New N South M' Central W East Gloucester through the past two decades. As-these villages: grew in 0 wcst C3 North size, they grew up in size category and, by the 1980 Census, had become towns of greater than, 2,500 population. Yet even by the mid Eighties, after a period of substantialgrowth, villages like Lam. oine, Whitefield, Deer Isle, Jefferson-, Chstine, Mt. Dessert., Blue, Hill-,, Figure 21 Litchfield, Manchester, Appleton, Damariscotta,,Bethel, Rowdoin- Population growth statewide is ham, Lincol-riville, Arundel, and Oguiiquit remained, below 2,500 dominated by Southern Maine, under both our lowest and high- population and many evert below 1,000: est growth scenarios,, but future growth in Bangor and Its subur- ban counties will also be consid- Even as the effects of exurbanization were transform, inig erable. The emphasis on South- ern Maine Is even more pro- some villages into@towns, others lost population between 196Gand nounced under the high end or 198Gas, the persistence of ruralpoverty in, the northerly part of the Prosperity scenario. state took its toll. Indeed, structural poverty. remain& untouched in Source: U.S. Census; Maine Office of Maine- even by the unprecedented prosperity of, the 1980s. Vital Statistics 23 The state's poverty population remained near 13 percent - more than one person i.n,seven - in 1987, precisely the same percentage as in the 1970 and 1980 Census counts. Another 10,000 persons were added to the poverty rolls between 1980 and 1987, the same number as were added through the entire 1970s. While The Maine Population regional breakdowns were not. available in the 1987 data, the by Municipal Size presence of significant numbers of two-eamer working poor fami- 1400M Certsus Scenario lies below the povertY level suggests an important geographical 1200000 component may relate structural poverty in Maine to the location of 1000" the state's low-wage, natural resourceindustries. 800" 600" 400" ..X By 1980, the population of Maine was divided in rough 200000 third s between the state's cities, villages and towns. When the same 0 1960 1980 1990 2000 2010 proportions are projected out to the population in 2010, the cities 0 Villages E Towm 0 Cities gain about 60,000 people - another Portland by comparison - the towns share a population of virtually half a million and the villages Figure 22 remain nearly 100,000 persons below the population they held in 1960. become the residential location of Maine's suburban towns have choice for more than a third of Yet this distribution by municipal size does not tell the the population, but all municipal size groups are projected to gain whole story of urban to rural migration. population In the future. Vital Statistics Source: U.S. Census; Maine Office of The Suburban Pattern Besides, compiling population counts for municipalities, the Census Bureau also compiles counts for central places - village and town centers - as distinct from outlying rural areas that are politically part of the municipality but physically. part of the open. countryside. Because of these central place counts, it is possible -to distinguish the populations of a Fort Kent center or a Winthrop center or a Sanford center from the exurban populations of those same towns. In addition to defining three categories of municipal size, therefore,, we have also examined three categories of local place that are also based on population sizes: Rural with under 2,500; 24 Suburban with between 2,500 and 10,000, and Urban. with more than 10,000 residents. In thi@ analysis, however,, neighborhood rat-her, than. political boundaries define. the limits of population size. In contrast to the apparent loss4apopulation experienced by the smallest municipalities through 1980, the smallest places in The MalnePoptflation Maine have experienced tremendous grow& More than two-thirds by Size of Place of Maine'spopu@lation.. growth between, 1940. and 1980 took place in 1400000 - Census Scenario rural neighborhoods. Only one seventh- of the growth occurred, in 12OM' - the built- up suburbs and one sixth occurred in urban, neighborhoods. 1000000 - - ------ ---------------- 800000 Unlike the pattern showed by the m unicipal counts, the neighbor- 600000 hood counts show that the largest places in. Maine actually lost 400000 @X-IN-N .... ......... ... ..... 200000 population between 1,960and 1980. This pat-temis continuingirl the 0 1980s. 1940 1960 1980 1990 2000 2010 M Rural El Suburban E3 Urban The settlement pattern by size of place in, the conuing century may be heavily unbalanced toward; the open countryside@ By 1980, more than half of the Maine population, lived outside the state's Figure 23 village and town centers. By the year 2010, another 100,000 Rural neighborhoods In cities and persons may choose to move onto the state's rural landscapes. The towns of all sizes have absorbed almost all of the population town and city centers, in contrast, gain only about 25,000 population growth In Maine since the 1960s. and the village centers only slightly less. Source: U.S. Census; Maine Office of Vital Statistics Yet, as has been made clear by the experience of the 1970S and 1980s, the jobs in Maine's economy remain largely in or-near the fringes of the larger central places, despite the movement of the population ever farther out into the countryside and of some businesses into the suburban fringe. The result has been long com- mutes for Maine workers - more and more often at the rate of two per household, each sometimes corn -muting in different directions and increasing levels of traffic and congestion on Maine roads. In the most extreme cases, powerful employment centers like Portland or Bath can triple in population every morning and empty out again every night - generating peak load pressures on roads, parking, waste disposal systems and on air quality. In effect, the real populations of these employment centers are hidden, the stresses on their infrastructures distorted and the revenues available 25 to them through the property tax inequitably depressed. Additional growth through the next twenty ydars'of about 15 percent in the exurban population would suggest that regional approaches to traffic and financing issues will move increasingly higher on the public agenda. 26 SECUON 4 MAINE'S INMIGRANTS Inmigration was a major area of inte rest for the first Com- College Gr9duates In mission on Maine's Future, during the late 19770s, at a tim. e when the The Mabate Population phenomenon was new to Maine;and poorly docum, ented. 'The first 50- Percentiff Migration Type 45- Commission sponsored its own groundbreaking research in the area 4U 35 30 and granted seed money for a long term, University,of Maine study 25-- that continues to provide the most comprehensive analysis available 15 10 of Maine's inmigrants. These efforts stimulated additional study by 5 Recent Earlier Rcuirning Lifelong state, private and academic researchers substantially improving our Inrnigrants Inmigrants Mainers Maincm understanding of inmigration and its effects on Maine. Migration Type - Main*e Average Despite popular concern about "people from away," inmi- Figure 24 gration represents the smallest share of the population growth pressures facing the state in the 198,Os - about a third of the Inmigrants, in general, and recent inmigrants, in particular, have percentage change and adding just over 2.5 percent of the overall higher levels of education than population throu gh the decade so far. the overall Maine population, and higher levels than the Inmigrants who moved to Maine before 1978. A more important role played by inmigrants has been their Source: Northeast Research,IInc. influence on the state's demographic characteristics - levels of income and education, occupations, age, family and employment patterns - and on the social, political and cultural environment of the state. Inmigration has brought more than just additional num- bers of people to Maine. Inmigrants have been on average younger, more financially secure and better educated than Maine residents; they typically hold betterjobs, are more active politically and differ somewhat in their values and belief systems. Yet in other. ways, inmigrants - who represent nearly a third of our population - share many similarities with their native Maine neighbors. They are preponderantly New Englanders, imbued 27 with the same sense of history and the same sense of place. They value the state's natural environment and share a concern for its future. They gravitate toward small towns and rural places; they do their part in making their communities work. Net Innilgration To Maine Counties 1980-1986 The Impact of Inmigration Oxford Franklin Waldo Maine, in 1989, has experieniced a full generation of inmi- Somerset Sagadahoc gration and has become home to a sizable inmigrant community. Hancock Some of those who moved to Maine during that generation have Ynox remained here and become part of their communities, while others Lincoln Cumberland moved away again after a period of years. About 18 percent of Yoik Maine's inmigrants have been found to leave the state again within 0 '7000 l4m five@years. Others came here temporarily as.college students, or assigned to military bases or in temporary career moves to corporate Gross Ininigration To Maine Counties divisions in the state. Still others - about 20 percent were Pisca.taquis 1975-1980 returning Maine natives who left. to attend school or to accept Lincoln Washington employment in another state. Knox Franklin Waldo Somerset In 1980, 255,000 of the 1. 1 million people living in Maine Hancock were born out of state and an additional 50,000 people were born in 0 Saga= Aroostwook another country - a total of 305,WO resident inmigrants represent- Androscoggin Kennebec ing 27 percent of the population. The evidence of previous Census Penobscot Yolk ClInIberland counts and of tracking studies in the 1980s suggests that between 0 5000 100001500(2MW25000 half and three quarters of amillion people have moved to Maine through the past twenty five years and that about 350,000 of those Figure 25 people continue to reside in the state in 1989 a rough third of the Inmigration to Maine from out of total population. Nearly two-thirds of these inmigrants have moved state Is Is strongly weighted to to Maine from the industrialized Nor I-theast - New England, the urban counties (bottom chart) but when the effect of Mainers Middle Atlantic states and the upper Midwest - and nearly half moving around the state or away from the neighboring New England state's. More than one in five from Maine Is taken Into account, southern and coastal counties come from Massachusetts alone. experience the greatest gains (top chart). While the the primary m6fivation bringing people to Maine Source: Maine Office of Vital Statis- tics; U.S. Censu.s has to do with quality of life rather than economic factors, the distribution of inmigrants around the state, nevertheless, suggests a ,.28 strong economic component may be present as well. During the 1975-1980 period, 46 percent of the gross inmigration occurred in Cumberland, York and Penobscot counties, and another 16 percent occurred in Androscoggin and Kennebec counties. These five counties are the state's most urbanized and contain the highest conce ntrations of employme nt opportunities available in Maine. Distribution of Upper Incomes Percent of Migration Type The pattern of net migration may have an even stronger SO--- at or above $30,OW Per year urban-county component, especially in the 1980s. Between 1970 45 and 1980, 47 percent of the net inmigration occurred in York and 40.. Cumberland counties alone. Between 1980 and 1986, that figure 354 had risen to 70 percent. York County absorbed 51 percent of the net 30.. inmigration of the early 1980s, adding nearly 14,000 people through 25 Recent Eaffier Returning Lifelong the six years. Innugrants Innugmnts Mainers Mainers Migration Type - Maine Average Distribution of Low To Moderate Incomes Waves of Migration Percent of Migration Type 45-. at or Wow $20,OW M year 40-- The demographic differences between inmigrants and long- 35. time Mainers can be striking. Even more striking - because it is 30- unexpected - is the appearance of similar differences between 25 - different groups of inmigrants. Results of the Commission's 20-1 research suggest that inmigrants differ as often among themselves Recent Eadier Returning Lifelong Imnigrants Inmigrants Mainers Mainers as they do from native Mainers - so much -so that there appears to MigrationType - MaineAverage have been two distinct waves of migration to Maine, each corre- sponding roughly to the decades of the 1970s and the 1980s and the Figure 26 first about half again larger than the second. Between these waves, Maine's newest Inmigrants are differences in education, in income, in values and in attitudes are more likely to earn high Incomes often as pronounced as the differences between those who have and less likely to earn low In- comes than other groups in the moved to Maine and those who have lived here all their lives. Maine population. Earlier Inmi- grants are more like natives at the low end and more like newcom- For example, Seventies inmigrants were two and one half ers at the high end of the income times more likely to be employed in professional, executive and scale. managerial positions than was typical in the Maine population; they Source: Northeast Research, Inc. were more than three times more likely to have a college degree; they were one and one half times more likely to be young adults between the ages of 20and 34. Native Mainers, in the same studies, 29 were nearly twice as likely to be employed in blue collar, natural resource and service.occupations than were inmigrants and one and one half times more likely to be over age 65. Later inmigrants, however, are even younger and better The Maine Population educated than their predecessors to Maine. Those who have arrived Under Age 44 in Maine in the past ten years continued to be three times more likely Percent of Nfigration Type 80-, to be college graduates than Mainers but also one and one half times 70-1 60.. more likely than those who arrived more than ten years ago. Nearly OP so., one newcomer in two had graduated from college in 1988, com- 40-, 30 ' ' pared with one in three of those who moved to Maine more than ten 20.1 104 years ago and one in five of those who were bom in Maine. 0 Recent Earlier R=g Lifelong Innagrants Imnigrants Manen Mwnem NEgrationType MaincAvemge Other demographic differences between Mainers and inmi- Ir grants have also persisted during the 1980s, with the greatest gap Figure 27 existing between long-time Mainers and the newest inmigrants, while earlier inmigrants hold an intermediate position between the Migration to Maine Is predomi- other groups. Inmigrants, in general, continue to command higher nantly a function of youth, not one of retirement. More than incomes than is typical for the Maine population, with those who three In four of the Inmigrants Of have arrived in the last ten years even better off than those who the past ten years are still under age 44 and more than half are still arrived in the 1970s. Nearly half of the most recent arrivals earn under age 34. annual incomes over $30,000, and only one in four earn less then Source: Northeast Research, Inc. $20,000. Only two in five of the longer-term inmigrants earn more than $30,000 a year and nearly the same number earn less than $20,000. Among lifelong Mainers, only one in three earns more ive earns less than $20,000. than $30,000 a year and two in f The young adults who moved to Maine in the 1960s and 1970s and who have remained here have inevitably grown older, weakening the tendency for inmigrants to be younger than the general population of the state. Taking both waves of inmigrants together, forexample, one in five inmigrants is 65 years old orolder, compared to one in six native Mainers. Mainers and inmigrants are equally likely to be either under age 34 or under age 50. But when only the inmigrants of the last ten years are considered, more than half are between the ages of 18 and 34 and fewer than one in five is older than 50. When the earlier wave of migrants was studied in 1980 - that is,,within ten years of having moved to Maine - 41 30 percent were between 18 and 34, while 53 percent of the cur-rent generation of inmigrants are within that age range. Value Systerns of Inmigrants Free Access to Private Wilderness To some extent, these demographic differences appear to 2.2.. 1 = Agme 5 = Disapoo carry through to core values and attitudes as well, although the 21, 2- differences among Mainers, regardless of their place of birth, on 9 most questions rarely result in wide variations or diametrically I"' .7 opposed positions. 1.6 1.5 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 in Mai It would be a mistake, therefore, to overemphasize these - Inmigranytcsm - Miners differences, either between groups of inmigrants or between inmi- grants and Maine natives. Where divisions exist, they are almost Managing always slight, reflecting at best slight shifts in the direction of Maine's Growth variation - that is in the size of the minority within groups - away 3.6.. 1 Agm: 5 =Disagree 3.5-- from a clearly dominant central tendency that seems to be common 3.44 3.3- to all Mainers regardless of birthplace. 3.2- 3.1- .9 Indeed, the starkest divisions occur most often between two 22.8.. 3- 2.7.. groups of inmigrants. The following discussion draws upon data 2.601-5 6- 10 11i -15 16i-20 gathered in two random polls of opinions and value systems Years in Maine completed by the Commission in early 1989. Specific polf results Inmigmts - Mamas are found at the end of this section. Figure 28 At the core of the first wave of migration - the wave that When asked If "The people of came to Maine seeking a quality of life embracing personal auton- Maine should have the continued right to use private wilderness omy and an environmental ethic - an unusual group of newcomers and forest land at no cost," the moved to the state between 1972 and 1977. In so far as there ever shortest and longest term Inmi- grants held views the closest to was a "back to the land" movement in Maine, it would have been long time Mainers on average., heavily represented in this group. Motivated by strongly-held The Inmigrants of the middle 1970s showed the strongest ideals in the 1970s, this group in 1988 is consistently more liberal degree of concern when asked If than any other group of Mainers, holding a high level of trust in "Managing growth In Maine may very well disrupt private business government and an expectation that the resources of government be and undercut prosperity." used to curb excesses in business, to protect the environment and to Source: Market Decisions, Inc. address human need. 31 In contrast to the in-migrants of the mid-seventies,'a second group of inmigrants is unusual for being consistently more c.onser-7Y, vative than any other group and often more conservative than MAine.'.., natives. This group arrived in Maine between 1978 and 1982,@.,a time, of gasoline lines and Iranian hostages, of dying manufacturing. Government's nce the 1930s. Their arrival industries andthe deepest recession si Responsibility appears to have inaugurated the second wave of migration to Maine' I =Agree: 5Disagree 2.9-- 3. a wave characterized by more education, higher incomes and 2.8-- more conservative values. Faced with a world vastly changed from 2.7. 2.6. the generation of prosperity and social experimentation that had 25 2A gone before, the inmigrants of 1978 - 82 tended, in 1988, to have 2.3 2.2 neoconservative, or perhaps more accurately neotraditionalistatti7. -1 2 tudes suspicious of government and social spending, somewhat.-., 20 0-5 6-10 11-15 16- Ycars in NWne - Imnigrants - Mainers favorable toward economic development and property rights, split on the environment and social change. Doubt Ablifly to Affect Government The second wave of inmigrants appears to have come to 1 Agree: 5Disagree 4.. Maine not only for environmental quality but also for the opportu- 3.9-- 3.8.. nities the state provides for traditional family life. Housing costs, 3.7. 3.6 although rising when they arrived, were still relatively low com- 3.5 3.4 pared to those in other states, holding open the possibility@of a,.'.. 3.3 3.21 lifestyle centered on a home of one's own, a backyard, children. In 3.1 3 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 1988, nearly half of inmigrants to the state during the previous ten. years in Maim InrnigrantS Mainers y ars lived.in homes with another adult and children, compare06 less then two in five of all Maine adults who share that traditional Figure 29 lifestyle. They were less likely than natives or earlier inmigrants@ t 01- When asked if It's government,s live alone, to live in families without children or to be single arents P responsibility.to assure such Family values tend to be quite strong among the inmigrants of-'t he, basics as housing and health care" or "People like me are 1980s and they tend to resemble native Mainers in this area mo Ire. unable to affect or change the than they resemble the earlier inmigrants. policies of government," the inmi- grants of the early 1980s tend to be more like long-time Mainmers Yet neither of these generally consistent philosophies is, than they are like other lnmi- grants on average. untempered. The usually liberal and environmentalist inmigrants-of the 1972-77 period, for example, are the most concerned of A] 1: Source: Market Decisions, Inc. Mainers that growth management may threaten economic prosper.@:.,.:.:1., ity and are the least threatened by the recent pace of change ifijhe.'@,, state. Similarly, the usually conservative inmigrants of the 1018782 period are the least willing of all Mainers to trade environmerital forz 32 economic quality and find the pace of change nearly as threatening as do long-.tiine. Mainers Between natives and inmigrants in general, what differ- ences in attitude exist tend to fall into two types. On some issues education and the "special" character of life in Maine are particu- The Purpose of larly good examples- inmigrants' attitudes often tend to become An ]Education more like those of long-time Mainers, the longer they have lived in 34-- 1 Agme: 5Mug= the state. On other issues - economics, government and moral 3. values, for example - a strong "U"-shaped trend is often evident 2.8- as years of residency in the state increase. When this pattern is 2.6-- 2.4 ' ' present, the most recent inmigrants tend to most closely resemble 2.2.1 2. 4 long-time Mainers, while the inmigrants of the 1972-1977 period 0_5 6- 10 11 @ 15 16m- 20 Years in Maim tend to display the greatest differences. Where these differences can I=igrants Ma@ncrs be generalized, they are strongest and occur most often in the sphere of moral values. Inmigrants generally tend to be more tolerant than Figure 30 natives of gays, of cohabitation, of working women, of freedom of When asked if "The most im. information and of the decline of religious influence on social portant purpose of an educa- tion is to prepare a person to customs. However, there is a tendency toward the re-emergence Of get a job," Inmigrants tend to traditional values among the second wave of inmigrants. come closer to the native .' attitude, the longer they live in. Mainers and inmigrants generally tend to be closest together Maine. Source: Market Decisions, Inc, on their environmental attitudes, although native Mainers tend to place a higher priority on job creation than on the preservation of natural conditions. Yet they are less inclined than inmigrants to tolerate degradation of air or water quality for the sake of business expansion. Mainers place a greater emphasis on the natural envi- ronment in defining. quality of life than do inmigrants, while inmigrants place more emphasis on Maine's rural and undeveloped character.. Mainers are less inclined than are inmigrants to recog- nize aright to post private land at the expense of recreational access, yet they also extend greater recognition to the property rights of beach and wilderness owners. Mainers and inmigrants are also relatively close in their attitudes toward education. Inmigrants tend to be slightly more financially supportive of the schools, but both groups place the same relative emphasis on increased school spending in their scales of 33 priorities. Both groups also tend slightly toward, the belief that the schools are failing to prepare the present generation of children for the future. Inmigrants are somewhat more inclined to see the importance of lifelong leaming than are Mainers, but both groups strongly agree on that importance. Mainers are more likely to The Role considerjobs, rather than education for its own sake, as the purpose of Women of the schools, but inmigrants' attitudes about the vocational out- 3.4. 1 Ag= : 5 = Disag= come of education tend to become much more like those of Mainers, 3.3-- 3.24 the longer they have lived in the state. 3.1- 3-- 2.9.. 2.8- Mainers are considerably more chauvinistic about the spe- 2 '7 2.6 2 5 cial qualities of the state than are inmigrants and hold to considera 2.4015 6-i10 11X-15 16-20 bly more traditional social, moral and religious customs. Mainers Years in Maim - Inrnigrams Mainers see life in their state as simpler than life elsewhere in the country, they believe their children will be happier in life if they remain in Figure 31 Maine, and they wouldn't leave themselves for better homes, jobs When asked If "We would be or opportunities. But they fear this uniqueness may be at risk and better off If more women stayed that Maine may become more like the rest of the nation. Inmigrants, at home to raise their children," no matter how long they have lived in the state, tend to place long time Mainers take a much more traditional view than InmI- considerably less emphasis on Maine's uniqueness and conse- grants on average. quently see less of a threat. Inmigran Its do tend to become more Source: Market Decisions, Inc. committed to Maine with length of residency, however, and to believe their children will be better off if they also adopt that commitment as adults. The widest divergence between native Mainers and inmi- grants occurs in the sphere of social, moral and religious values followed by a similar, but somewhat less wide divergence in attitudes toward government. The inmigrants of the 1978-.82 period are significantly out of step with other inmigrants on these issues and much more like long-time Mainers. Yet.even compared with these conservative inmigrants, Mainers hold distinctly different values. Native Mainers do not approve of a "gay lifestyle," of gay teachers or of heterosexual cohabitation; believe society would be better off if women remained in the home, that children need two- parent families and that young people have "too much" freedom in present-day society. They do not strongly object to community censorship of libraries; they believe society would be better off if 34 religion were more prominent in daily life; they seek support for their decisions in prayer. Inmigrants tend to be more tolerant of homosexuality and cohabitation, embrace expanding roles for women, strongly object to censorship and assign a minor role to religion in private and public life. The Structure Mainers tend to see corporate and bureaucratic power as of the Family compelling in governmental decision-making and their own influ- 3.3. 1 =Agree: 5 =Disagree ence consequently reduced. They strongly espouse a philosophy of 3.1- 2.9 self-reliance and only mildly support government provision Of 23' "basics" like housing and health care. They tend to place a lower 2.5 2.3 priority on government spending generally, regardless of category, 2-1 than do inmigrants. Inmigrants display a strong faith in their ability 1.9 0-5 6-i10 11i-15 16.-20 Yemrs in Maim to influence government decisions, discount the power of corpora- - Inntigmts - Mainers tions and bureaucracies and see government's job, in part, as providing basic social services. In each of these instances, the 1978- Cohabitation 82 inmigrants show substantially less faith in government and less Without Marriage commitment to its social role than do other groups, but they do not 3.3-, 1 = Agee: 5 Disagree diverge as widely from the inmigrant norm as do long-time Mainers. 3.1. 2.9.. 2.7-- 2.5- Inmigrants tend to place higher priorities than do long-time 2@3. Mainers on public spending of all kinds, but tend to place the same 21 1.9 ---------4 relative emphasis on spending options as they rank their priorities. 0-5 6 '10 11 -:15 16-20 Years; in Maim On only two options - job training at the bottom and health care - Imigrants - Mamers at the top - do inmigrants place a lower relative priority than do I long-time Mainers. Figure 32 When asked It "Children need both a mother and a father at Health care is the top spending priority among native home In order to be properly Mainers, butranks second among inmigrants, afterElderly Services raised," the Inmigrants of the . 1980s are on average more like and the VTI System, which share their first place priority. Inmi- long time Mainers than they are grants placejob training programs at the bottomof their priority list, like the Inmigrants of the 1970s. When asked if "it can be healthy while native Mainers group Job Training, Roads, Housing and the for people to live together before University of Maine System together as the lowest priorities. marriage," the Inmigrants of the 1970s and the 1980s differ among themselves, on average, but differ Both groups place the K- 12 School System, Environmental even more from long time Main- Quality andWaste Managementin themiddlerange of theirpriority ers. rankings, but nearly one inmigrant in fourconsiders theK-12 Sysem Source: Market Decisions, Inc. to be the single top priority for public spending. The closest native 35 Figure 33 Spending Prioritie's 2.5 1 Top Priority : 5 Cut Spending When asked to pick a top priority 2.4. - from a list of ten options, and to rank the others for more, same or 2.6 - less spending, Mainers and 2.7 Inmigrants reveal a close similar- Ity In how they rank their priori- 2.8 ties but Inmigrants look for slightly higher spending across 3.0 the board. Job Maine Uof Housing K-12 Env. Waste Elderly Vn Health Training Roads Maine Aid Schools Quality Mgmt Svcs Sysu= Cam Source: Northeast Research, Inc. Mainers hunigmnts Mainers come to that level of consistency is the choice by nearly one in five of Elderly Services as the top priority, while another one in five place Environmental Quality alone at the top. Both groups tend to be somewhat favorable to increased spending on their lowest priorities and quite favorable to spending increases for their top priorities. But nearly a fifth of the inmigrants and a tenth of the natives would cut job training funds, while another tenth of each group would do the same to the University. 36 SECTION 5 THE BABY BOOMER9 Baby boomers account for more than one-third of the total The Maine Population Mainepopulation andnumbermore than twoin five of all adults, but 35 Years Old and Older Projecdons to 20 10 the full weight of the adult baby boom has only begun to befelt in 750000- Maine society. The youngest members of this generation reached 700" - voting age only in 1980. Some remained college students until the 650" - mid-1980s. Only since 1987 has the entire generation been fully invested in adulthood, beyond the age of post-adolescence and set 600M - on a direction for their lives. 550" - 500000- 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Yet the generation is still not yet fully cohesive and remains split between an older group, over age 35 and into middle age, and Figure 34 a younger group still between 25 and 34 and in their prime family, The movement of the baby boom household and career formation years. Different preoccupations generation Into middle age will are still likely to concern the two parts of this generation and their continue through the 1990s, differences in lifestyle are likely to be reflected in differences of resulting in a concentration of political, social and economic political interest. But by the mid-1990s, the baby boom will be power at a single stage of the life consolidated in the common outlooks and attitudes of middle age, cycle. representing a concentration of power - political, economic, Source: U.S. Census social and cultural- in keeping with their disproportionately large share of the whole population. By 1995, more than 350,000 Mainers will be between the ages of 35 and 54; in the first decade of the coming century the population of this age group will rise to and remain near 400,000. At the turn of the 21 st Century, the influence of the baby boom on public policy will be certain, overwhelming and unprecedented. The baby boomers share a number of demographic similari- ties with Maine's inmigrants. Indeed, more than one third of 37 Maine's baby boomers are inmigrants, and half of those moved here within the past ten years. Nearly half of Maine's baby boomers have lived in the state all their lives, and another one in five have W returned to Maine after having lived out of state for part of their lives. Educational Attainment in the Maine Population Percent of Age Group Despite the rise in divorce rates and decline in fertility that 100 has been continuous throughout the baby boom generation's move- 90 Maine so Average ment into adulthood, only one in three baby boom households are & 70 childless and only seven percent are single parent. More than three 60 in five boomer households consist of two adults and at least one 45-64 50 40 child. One in four are childless couples. 30 20 Like the inmigrants, baby boomers are relatively highly 10- 0 Under lEgh Sorne college educated - only seven percent have not completed high school, Twelve School College Grad compared with twice that number among Mainers of all ages - and Figure 35 nearly half have had at least some college. More than one in four have obtained a college degree compared with one in five of all Educational attainment rates Maine adults. Yet the baby boomers are somewhat less well Improved at both ends of the spectrum In the baby boom educated than are inmigrants, among whom more than half have generation, with fewer students attended college and one in three hold college degrees. leaving school before graduating from high school and more staying on through college In keeping with their higher than average levels of educa- graduation. Younger generations are likely to improve these rates tional attainment, the baby boomers also command higher than still further, but many were still in school when this poll was con- average incomes. Two in five earn household incomes over ducted. $30,000 a year and nearly three in four earn over $20,000. No other Source: Northeast Research, Inc. age group matches these earnings, and only the most recent inmi- grants exceed them, with nearly half earning more than $30,000 a year. The baby boomers' earnings levels reflect their unusually high rates of participation in the labor force - by far the highest among all Mainers. A key to this high participation level is the unusually large percentage of women between 25 and 44 in the workforce. More than nine in ten of the men and nearly eight in ten of the women in the baby boom generation were working in 1988, three in four of them full-time. Barely more than half of all Maine adults work full time, and only seven in ten work at all. 38 With nearly two-thirds of the baby boomers already over age 35 and into middle age, a preview of the direction their influence will take Maine can be estimated from the values, priorities and political judgements they make today. The following discussion draws upon data gathered in two random polls of opinions and value systems completed by the Commission in early 1989. Specific poll Church results are found at the end of this section. Attendance I Ag=: 5 Disagme 3.4-- 3.2.. 3- 2,8 2.6 2.4 Age and Value Systems 2.2 2 18-24 2544 45-64 65+ Like inmigrants, baby boomers differ most from the larger - Age Grwps AU Ag- Maine population in their moral values and in their attitudes toward social and family structure. Moreover, these differences are tYPi- Figure 36 cally reflected in the attitudes of the generations younger than the When asked about their social, baby boom as well. Thus, with respect to religion and to social and moral and religions values, In sexual customs, a strong break with the past is evident between questions like "I usually attend a place of worship at least once a populations older than and younger than age 44. The generations month," the generations younger under 44 tend to be less religious than their elders, with the baby and older than age 44 reveal boomers the least churched, but with their juniors even less likely diverging attitudes. - to be oriented toward prayer, toward the primacy of spiritual values Source: Market Decisions, Inc. or to the positive influence of religion on society.. Opposition to library censorship, to limiting new roles for women and to limiting the freedoms of modem children are also stronger among those. younger than 44 than it is among those older than 44, but the level of opposition can tend to weaken somewhat with age. Baby boomers hold substantially different views on these questions than do older generations, but they are not as "socially progressive" in these areas as are the generations even younger than themselves. The moral split between old and young i s most evident on the question of cohabitation, which younger generations believe to be healthy and which older generations oppose. Baby boomers are the least committed generation to the two-parent lifestyle, where the split between young and old is also 39 evident, but the generations younger than the baby boom may be moving back to a more traditional position. All age groups are deeply divided within each generation over tolerance of the gay lifestyle, with a consistent two fifths of persons of any age in favor of tolerance and an equally consistent two fifths opposed. Younger The Role generations tend to be slightly more tolerant than older generations of Women of gay teachers and the baby boomers the most tolerant of all. 1 Agree: 5Disagree 3.4 2- The split between the generations is also evident in other tu 2.8 - 3. atti des, but the differences between Mainers of different ages is 2.6-, seldom as pronounced as in their moral attitudes. The split tends to 2.4 12 take two forms. 2 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ - Age Groups AR Ages The most common pattern occurs when the baby boomers and the generation that follows them hold exactly the same values on average, while the generations older than age 44 tend to become Figure 37 more different with age. This pattern occurs repeatedly on attitudes When asked If "We would be toward education, government and the environment, as well as in a better off If more women stayed more extreme form on moral and cultural attitudes. at home to raise their children," a wide gap is revealed between the generations and that gap may be Thus, Mainers younger than age 44 tend to be less commit- widening. ted to the philosophy of self-reliance, to be less suspicious of the Source: Market Decisions, Inc. power of big business in government and to be more confident of their own ability to influence public policy. They are less likely than their elders to be dissatisfied with school performance, more likely to value the environment over economic interests and less likely to be threatened by the economic and population growth that has been changing Maine in recent years. A second pattern also occurs repeatedly, in which the split between the generations is moderated by a tendency for values to change with age. When this pattern is present, attitudes tend to change evenly with age with the baby boomers holding values somewhere between the values held by persons younger and per- sons older than themselves. This pattern affects Mainers sense of family responsibility for their aged parents; attitudes toward Maine's simple lifestyle and 40 toward the risk that the state is becoming just like everywhere else; attitudes toward the need for a college education; attitudes toward the value of inmigration to the state; levels of commitment to stay in Maine and attitudes toward a neighbor's private property rights. This pattern also influences moral and social attitudes, some of which also tend to moderate with age, but even where attitudes The Philosophy moderate, the social gap between the generations is wide. of Self Reliance 2.4-- 1 Ag=: 5 - Disagme 2.3.. Each of these common patterns provides conflicting evi- 2.2-- 2.1, dence toward the resolution of one of the most significant uncertain_ 2 1.9 ties affecting Maine's and the nation's future in virtually all areas of 1-8-, 1.7 human activity from government to business; from technology to 11-5 social policy. 18'Z4 =4 45-64 65+ Age Gmups AR Ages The unanswered question is How will the baby boomers react to age? Will they remain committed to the political idealism The Freedom and social revolution, to the innovation and unconventionality of of Youth their youth? Or will they follow earlier generations and become 2 1 Agme: 5 Mug= .7- more politically and socially conservative as they age? How the 2.5. baby boomers answer this question can change our assumptions 2.3. I - 9 of environmental preservation, the global competitiveness of our 1*7 about the rate of inmigration, the level of social -spending, the future 2. 1 1.5 national economy, the size of the labor force and the way schools 18-24 25-44 45-64 65. will be restructured. I - AgeGroups - ARAges The evidence of the first pattern suggests that the baby Figure 38 boomers are maintaining their youthful ideals and that the "genera- When asked If "People should tion gap" of the 1960s represented a basic change in cultural values rely more on themselves rather that will continue into the future. The utter lack of difference than ask the government to do so between the baby boomers and very young adults between 18 and much" or "Young people have too much freedom today," gen- 24 that characterizes this pattern provides evidence of a level of erational differences are some- times very pronounced (top continuity that is in itself a fundamental break with the past. chart) and sometimes moderate with Increasing age (bottom The evidence of the second pattern, however, suggests that chart). the baby boomers are indeed changing with age, making a smooth Source: Market Decisions, Inc. transition from the preoccupations of youth to those of parents, of breadwinners and eventually of retirees. The strong presence of both patterns may suggest that the baby boomers will indeedmodify 41 their attitudes as they grow older, but that they will make those modifications in ways fundamentally different than did the mem- bers of previous generations. In a number of their attitudes, the baby boomers differ from Government's all other age groups, although the intensity of these differences is Responsibility rarely great. I Agree: 5 = Disagree 3-- 29A 2 84 Of all age groups in Maine, baby boomers am the most 2.7-- 2.6-- opposed to private beach ownership, the least likely to see job 2.5- 2. 4. 2.3 - @@ preparation as the purpose of education, the most committed to 22-- 2'1 lifelong learning, the most satisfied (of those young enough to have 2- i+ 18-7A 45-64 65 children in the schools) with the way schools teach creativity, the AgeGroups AllAges least likely to object to gay teachers, the least likely to see the need for the traditional two-parent family structure, the least likely to Doubt Ability to attend church, the least likely to mistrust'bureaucracy, and the most Affect Government likely to look forward to the future. I = Agree: 5 = Disagree 3.6-- 3.5, 3.4. There are few generational differences among Maine people 3.3 -77@@ 3.24 in how they define quality of life. People over 50 place slightly 3.1-- 3.. higher stress on the state's natural environment, while baby boom- 2.9-. 2,8-- 2.7-- ers place slightly higher stress on Maine's rural, undeveloped 2.6- 18-24 25-44 45-64 6i, character. Baby boomers also place a bit more emphasis on low - Age Groups - All Ages crime rates and the small size of the drug culture, and place less emphasis on economic climate than other people under age 65. Figure 39 When asked If "It's government's Baby boomers tend to have different spending priorities responsibility to assure such than does the Maine population as a whole. While Mainers in basics as housing and health general as well as the baby boomers tend to favor somewhat higher care" or "People like me are unable to affect or change the government spending on all of the ten public priority areas meas- policies of government," Mainers uredin the Commission's polling, baby boomersplace ahigherthan sometimes show a pattern of changing attitudes with age and average pnonty on only two of those items - Roads and Job sometimes show a gap between Training. They place a lower than average priority on the University the generations. of Maine, Housing Assistance and Elderly Services, with the Source: Mafket Decisions, Inc. University their lowest priority of all. On other spending items, the baby boomers place identical priorities to Mainers in general on the K-12 School System and 42 Spending Priorities. Figure 40 2A - I =Top Priority 5 =Cut Spending When asked to pick. a top:,priorl y from a list of ten options, @and to 2.5 rank the others for more, same or. 2,6 less spending, baby boomers 2.7 - reveal a somewhat different 2.8 ranking and pattern of priorities 2.9 than do Maine people generally, while their willingness to, spend 3.0 M. tends to be near or slightly. below. Job aine Uof Housing K-12 Waste Elderly Vn Env. Health Training Roads Maine Aid Schools Mgrnt Svcs System Quality Care the average for all ages. Boomers All Ages Source: Northeast Research, Inc. Waste Management as mid-level priorities, and on the VTI System, Environmental Quality and Health Care as a three-way tie for top priority. 43 SECUON 6 THE CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE Life Cycle Groups in Societies can differ greatly in the age structures of their The Maine Population populations. Frond er societies, for example, usually have young (ON) Projecfiond w 2010 populations while more settled societies have older populations. 14M - - 1200A 70+ Thus, New England, one of the oldest settled regions of North XX America, has a population in which one person in three is over age I ODO 800 forty-five while Alaska, a frontier society, has only one person in six 6W as old as age forty-five. 400 18-34 200 Human biology and psychology, together with cultural 07 1 1986 19'90 19'95 20'00 20'05 2010 norms specifying what activities are appropriate for different ages, make the age structure of a society an important determinant of its Figure 41 character. The changing age structure of Maine society will be reflected in 0 A younger population will be more fecund than a greater emphasis on the con- cerns of the latter halt of the life an older one. The character of a younger society, cycle therefore, will be shaped more by the needs and Source: U.S. Census activities of children than will an older society. 0 Death and sickness will be more prevalent in an older society than in a younger one. Death and sickness, therefore, will have a greater effect on the character of an older society than they will on the character of a younger society. 0 Younger people tend to take more and greater risks than do older people. Risk-taking behavior can have both negative and positive results: highway accidents, alcohol and drug use and criminal activity among the negative outcomes; 44 business formations and geographical mobility among the positive. Both types of results will, consequently, be more prevalent in a younger than an older society. 0 The cultural norms of modern, industrial societies The Maine Population encourage young people to attend school for 50 Years Old and Older twelve to twenty years and encourage workers 460000 Ptojecfiam to 2010 to retire at age sixty or sixty five. The culture, 440M 420" organization and activities of the school, there 400" fore, will influence the character of a young 380OW society more while the culture, organization and 360" and activities of retirement will influence an older 340OW 320000 society more. 300000. 1986 IM 1995 20W 2W5 2010 The age structure of Maine society will change over the next few decades as the population becomes older. Much of that change Figure 42 will produce predictable effects in patterns that have been estab- About an eighth of the Maine lished for generations. Some of that change will be unpredictable population Is shifting from under as the circumstances of a new century impose themselves on the age 40 to over age 40 and the population between 45 and 54 will character of our society. But even when change is unpredictable, it double by 2010. does not have to be unexpected. Source: U.S. Census, The major structural change in Maine society between 1986 and 20 10 will be the shift of roughly an eighth of the population from under age 40 to over age 40 - that is, the "middle aging" of the baby boom. There will also be an "old aging" trend in Maine as the number of persons over age 80 increases by 20,000, rising from one percent of the state population in 1986 to two percent in 2010. Within these two broad trends, continuous increases are projected for only two more-tightly defined age groups - one between 45 and 54, which will nearly double from 109,000 to 2 10,000, and one over age 85, which will also nearly double from 17,000 to 32,000. The populations of all other age groups will decline during some periods and increase during others. The small Depression-era generation will keep the age group between 70 and 79 virtually unchanged in 2010 and will 45 trigger a five percent decline among persons in their sixties - the population of new retirees - during the 1990s. The small Vietnam War generation and the Recession-era generation bom in the late 1970s and early 1980s will trigger a similar five-percent reduction in the population of young adults between 25 and 44 - the present The Maine Population age of the baby boom. By 2005, when these "baby bust" generations 65 Years Old and Older begin to turn 40, the middle-aging trend will begin to slow by 3,000 185OW Projections to 2010 to 5,000 persons a year. 190M 1750M 1700M The pattern of structural change in the Maine population can 165OW be seen more clearly by considering the whole population of the 160M state within five, basic stages of the life cycle - that is, in the 1550M 150000.. lifestyles characteristic of children (birth to 17), young adults (18 145000-- to 34), middle age adults (35-54), retirement-oriented adults (55- 140000 1 2 a 2 1 1986 1990 1995 2000 2W5 2010 69) and senior citizens (70 and older). Figure 43 The middle age population of about 400,000 persons will be more or less constant after the turn of the century following a period Growth 16 Maine's retired popula- tion,will virtually,stop after 1995 of rapid acceleration toward a peak around 2005 that has already and then begin to grow again begun. This group will represent the largest single age group in the even more rapidly ten years later. This growth will continue to overall population. The fastest growing population will be the accelerate for much of the follow- group between 55 and 69 years old, the agesjust before andjust after Ing two decades. retirement. These middle age lifestyles hold the primary benefits of Source: U.S. Census the aging trend - the benefits of peak lifetime earnings, greater family and social stability, and higher productivity in thejobs which they will continue to hold through most of the years between 1990 and 2010. If the average retirement age remains near 65 - neither falling as has been occurring during the recentpast norrising as may occur if severe labor shortages mark the coming decades - actual retirements should not begin to accelerate until around 2011. The share of the retirement-oriented population between 65 and 69 will grow only from 49,000 in 1986 to 55,000 in 2010 - an increase of about twelve percent over 25 years. A preview of the costs associated with the aging trend in the years following 20 10 will be in evidence in a roughly 20,000-person increase in the population most genuinely at risk of failing health, reduced independence and eroding wealth - those over age 70, 46 who will increase as a group by 21 percent by 20 10. The most rapid increase in this age group, however, is occurring now and will begin to moderate after 1995. Slow growth in the senior citizen population will continue through about 2015, when the influence of the septua- genarian baby boom will begin to be felt. The population of children and adolescents will vary by only about four percent above and below a 300,000 person baseline throughout the period. By 2010 the number of children under age 17 - that is, those born after 1990 - will have fallen to near the numbers bom during the Depression and Second World War, and will represent amuch smallershare of a much larger population than was living in the state between 1930 and 1945. The decline in the childhood population reflects the continuing decline in the number of young adults available to be their parents. As the youngest baby boomers move into middle age through the mid-1990s, the 18-34 year old population will tumble by 15 percent through 20 10. While Maine's population is aging, then - both in the number of people over age 40 and in the number over age 70 - the younger group is expanding twice as rapidly as is the older group. Both trends will slow after the 1990s and growth in the over 70 population will accelerate again around the year 2020 when the baby boom begins to reach advanced a . The stresses of that . ge generational event are virtually certain to reverberate through society in unprecedented challenges to long-established systems of medicine and health care, social service, government, economics, ethics and family relationships. But during the period 1990 through 2010, Maine is likely to reap the benefits of the structural shift toward an older population, leaving the costs to come due during the following period from 2010 to 2040 and beyond. 47 I .I I I I I I I -1 PART 2 I I THE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON MAINE'S FUTURE I I , I I I I I I I SECUON I LIFESTYLES Maine Families Much of the change in Maine's size, its age structure and its and Households economy will be experienced at the household level. As with the percent of All Households Young Singles population in general, age and fertility will have the greatest impact Grown Families on household structure through the coming twenty years. But NEd-age Singles Elderly Couples changing levels of income, spending patterns and use of time will Single Parents Young Frnilies also affect life and lifestyles at the household level in Maine's Elderly Singles Couples No Kids future. SchoolFamilies 0 2 4 6 8 10 121416 1820 0 1980 M 2005 Maine's households can be classified on the basis. of age and marital status and of whether children are present in the household. Figure 44 The total household population of the state can be acc Iounted for, without overlap, by nine basic household types. Maine's aging population Is reflected In the changing family structure, which shows relative The nine household types are divided into three age ranges - losses In younger household Young (15 to 34), Middle Age (35 to 64) and Elderly (over 65). types - Young Singles, Single Parents and Couples with Pres- Within these age ranges, households are grouped by marital status choolers - and gains In the older - Single and Couples - and by the presence or age of children - types. No Children, Single Parents, Preschool Children (under 6), Source: U.S. Census; Office of School-age Children (6 to 17) and Grown Children (over 17). Technology Assessment Couples with school age children account for the largest proportion of all Maine households - nearly one in five - followed closely by Couples without children - about one in six. Eight of the nine household types are likely to increase in numbers in the 21 st Century, while one - Young Singles - is projected to fall by about 1,000. Two others - Couples withpreschool Children and Single Parents - are projected to increase slightly in numbers but to decline as a proportion of all households. 50 With these three exceptions, little structural change is pro- jected for Maine's households - the remaining six types are projected to gain relative strength in the household mix, but by between only one-half and one percent. The Household Time Budget Household incomes are also projected to rise, by the greatest Major Dernands amount for young and middle-age couples, and by the smallest wa* amount for single people of all ages. Elderly Couples and Single Cornrnitrncn@ Parents are projected to experience intermediate income gains. Leisure Personal Cam 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Houn per Wwk Time, like money, is also an important household resource 0 1975 0 1985 and changes in the use of time are likely to have a major impact on future lifestyles. While projections of future time use are not The Household available, significant changes have occurred nationally in the past Time Budget Commitment Demands decade, which provide a useful look at the role of time in personal - Child Caree Education life. Commuung Shopping Family Travel Eat at horn Americans spent more time working and commuting to and Housewo& 0 3 6 9 12 15 from work between the mid- 1970s and the mid- 1980s, and spent Hours per Wttk less time on most forms of leisure, civic and educational activity. M 1975 E 1985 Men spent an extra hour a week on housework, while women cut The Household back by nearly four hours. Even after these adjustments, women did Time Budget twice as much housework as men and overall time spent on Organizatims Leisure Dernands housework fell. Fat out LeisureTravel Recreation Social Both men and women spent less time on child care, but time Other Media Elec. Media spent on shopping increased slightly. Time spent eating declined 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 "GurS per Week both at home and eating out - but twice the amount of time saved a 1 975 M 1985 on "fast food" was committed to personal care - sleep, personal hygiene and physical exercise. Figure 45 Americans are putting more time Television watching and other electronic diversions re- Into work and Into taking care of ceived less attention in the 1980s, while books, newspapers, maga- themselves, and cutting back on their leisure time and routine jobs zines and other media received a slight boost. Leisure travel gained around the house. bmw importance as a recreational activity at the expense of most other Source: U.S. Census; Office of uses of free time. Technology Assessment 51 Empty Nests Almost three quarters of Main e households will have no children in the home in 2010. Although half of Maine households in 1960 had children living.at home, this share had declined by 1988 Empty Nests in to 35 percent and will continue to decline to below 30 percent by The Maine Population 2010. Associated with this change will be an additional decline in llousc@kolds With and 6W- Without Child= mean household size from 3.3 persons in 1960 and 2.6 in 1987 to 2.3 500. in 2010. 400- 300. 200 The presence of children in the home requires substantial 100- investments of time, energy and money for their care and socializa- 0- Child= 0-17 No or Grown tion. The increasing proportion of households without, children Childx= E 2005 N 1980 will, therefore, free substantial household resources for other uses. Figure 46 Children in the home link adults to the other children and the youth cultures of their communities. As the proportion of house- The smaller proportion of Maine holds with children declines, therefore, fewer households will have households with children present contacts with children and children's activities in their communi- will affect public and private ties. priorities for the use of time and money Source: U.S. Census The result will be increased segregation of the worlds of adults and the worlds of children. 'it will become more difficult to recruit adults to supervise and participate in youth activities, such as scouting, Little League, Sunday school and others, and to obtain voter support for public expenditures for education and youth services. This prospect poses a major challenge to state and local policy makers inthe coming two decades. The projected decline in the proportion of households with children between 1988 and 2010 reflects two changes in the age structure of the Maine population - an increase in the proportion of adults whose children have grown up and left home and a decline in the number of women in the principal child-bearing years. The Census Bureau's population projections assume a slight increase in fertility - the average lifetime number of children born per woman - over the next quarter century. If the Bureau is wrong 52 and fertility continues to decline as it, has.for the past two decades, then the proportion of households without children in 20 10 will be even larger than is projected here. Most children turn 18 before their parents turn 50. Conse- quently, few adults over age 50 still have children under age 18 The Maine Population living at home. In Maine in 1988, for example, two-thirds of the Aged 55 to 64 householders age 50 to 54 and ninety percent of those age 55 to 60 70M Pmecdons to 2010 had no children under age 18. The population age 50 and older is 1600"00 150000 projected to grow by 140,OW persons, accounting for nearly half of 14000WO all adults by 20 10. Ibis trend will mean a substantial increase in the 130000 number of households with no young children in the home. 120000-- 110000.1 ......... . 100000.. 90000-- 80000. 1 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 Financial Well-being Figure 47 A sharp increase in the number of More Maine households will be financially better off in Mainers at the peaks of their 20 10 relative to their lifetime earnings and accumulation of assets. careers and personal wealth in the late 1990s will fuel discretion- In an economy similar to that of the 1980s,, they would be absolutely ary spending and open a short better off, as well. In an economy crippled by doubled or quad- period of relative prosperity. rupled energy prices, or one in which U.S. industrial power were in Source: U.S. Cens'us eclipse on the world stage, they would probably be worse off in real terms, but still better off than they would be under the same poor economic conditions but at an earlier stage of the life cycle. This relative improvement will result from an increase in the population ages 55 to 64, a group at the peak of its earning power and base of personal assets. This age group is the one that occupies the senior executive, professional and craft positions in society and which supplies the savings for capital investment. Its children have left home, reducing household expenses. It has built up assets in housing, in durable goods and in cash savings. Younger age groups are net borrowers as they use credit to buy and furnish homes and get started in life. Older age groups begin spending their capital for retirement. ne income per house- hold member between 55 and 64 is 25 percent higher and its net 53 worth two and a half times larger that the overall averages for the. general population. Growth in this key population, however, will not begin until after the turn of the century. From 1986 to 1995, there will be a The Maine Population decline in the 55 to 64 year old population as the Depression era Aged 18 to 34 Projections to 2010 generation passes through this stage of the life cycle. A 61,000 340" -, person increase is projected for this age group by 2010 - 56,000 330". of which will occur after the turn of the century. 320" - - 3100004 3000DO.- 290000-, 280000.. 270000.. Geographic Mobility 260000-- 250000 i i I 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Residential mobility will decline sharply between 1986 and 2010. This will mean more stability, less turnover and fewer Figure 48 newcomers in Maine communities. It will also mean slower rates The dominance of the baby bust of housing turnover .and residential development, which can @e generations in the years of young expected to dampen the pressure of demand on real estate markets. adulthood will have repercus- sions on inmigration and birth rates, labor and housing markets. Since demand is only one element driving housing prices Source: U.S. Census upward, it is uncertain whether a slowdown in residential mobility will be accompanied by improvements in housing affordability. The share of household incomes spent on housing is not projected to increase, however, but the dollar cost of the average new housing unit is projected to rise from near $70,000 in 1988 to $87,000 in the mid-1990s and to $117,000 at the turn of the century. The slowing of residential mobility will result from a decline in the population age 18 to 34. Persons of this age are highly mobile, with one in three moving each year. ne older population is much more stable, with only one in ten moving each year. As the 18 to 34 year old population declines, therefore, and the population over 35 increases, the geographic mobility of the population as a whole will decline. The population age 18 to 34 is projected to decrease by 53,000 persons between 1986 and 2010, a 16 percent decline. 54 CAme Murder, manslaughter, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, larceny, auto theft and arson rates are likely to decline between 1986 and 1995 and then level off near their 1990 levels after the turn of the century. This reflects the changes in the population of young Males Aged 15 to 24 in males who tend to commit most of these crimes. Males ages 15 to. The Maine Population Projections to 2010 24; for example, are arrested for these crimes five times more often. 100".. than are women or older men. The rates for these crimes, therefor, 9500D.. are likely to mirror the changes in the 15 to 24 year old male 900004 population. 850M - NOW A low point in the adolescent male population is projected 75000-, for the period between 1995 and 2000, with a decline by about 15 70000 1916 1990 1995 2WO 2005 2010 percent from the 1986 level, but half of that loss is projected to be regained after. the turn of the ce ntury when the baby boomlet reaches its mid teens and early twenties. About 8,000 fewer young Figure 49 males are projected for the year 2010. A steep decline In the number of young males will bottom out in the mid-1990s and stabilize after the turn of the century. Crime Is likely to fall with this specialized population and to remain some- what lower than the present rates well Into the 21st Century. Source: U.S. Census 55 SECTION 2 CONSUMER MARKETS Maine Household Age and the preoccupations of people at different stages of and Family Incomes the life cycle shape decisions made throughout the economy - 1980 Dollars per Household Elderly Singles decisions that range from the kinds and numbers of goods that are Young Singles Ad-age Singles produced to the types and locations of stores and service businesses Single Parents that populate downtowns and suburban shopping malls across the Elderly Couples Young Families country. The exceptionally large size of the baby boom generation School Families Grown Families has been a major influence on the shape of consumer markets for Couples No Kids ..............4 more than 40 years as the group has passed from infancy to middle 0 10000 20000 3000040000 0 1980 0 2005 age. Through the remainder of this generation's lifetime, it can be expected toremain a dominant featureof the landscape of consLimp- Figure 50 tion. The presence of a second earner or a second pension In a house- Other changes in the age structure of Maine society will hold is probably reflected in the income advantage held by Maine similarly influence the pattern of spending and consumption that couples over Maine singles of all accounts for about two-thirds of all economic activity in the state. ages. This influence is exerted through the role of age in determining the Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- nine household types, each of which tends to conform, on average, ing and Simulation Model; Office of Technology Assessment to a characteristic consumption profile. Different types of households tend to divide their budgets in different ways, depending on their age and relative level of health, their marital status and whether there are children present, and on the ages of those children. Thus, elderly households will tend to spend a greater share of their incomes on prescription drugs and medical care; families with teenage children will tend to spend more on food; young single people will tend to spend more on recreation. Household incomes, as well, tend to vary with family type, with the youngest and oldest householders tending to earn the 56 lowest incomes (reflecting career-entry wage levels in the first instance and pension levels in the other) and middle age couples tending to earn the highest incomes (reflecting longer experience in the workforce and the greater likelihood that two earners are present). Because these central tendencies in household, income and Major Items In The Household Budget consumption patterns have been well defined, and because the size Perceot of 1980 Budgeu and age structure of the population can be reliably projected, a broad Elderly Singles J view of consumer markets in the early years of the 21 st Century can Elderly Couples Cyrown Funffies be constructed to suggest areas of emerging growth and decline; of Single Parents School Fmnilies threat and opportunity for the Maine economy. Our model of Young Singles - --------- household consumption is based on national trends in household Couples No Kids Young Families spending patterns, adjusted to reflect Maine trends in population, Nfid-age Singles 0 10 20 30 4'0 5'0 6'0 iO 8'0 households, income levels and economic growth. Shares of household budgets spent in major consumption categories, dollar 1 0 Transport N liousipg N Fwd spending per household and total value of household spending are Figure 51 all considered in the analysis Maine people spend three quar- ters or more of their household Nine household types and eight broad areas of consumer budgets on just three Items - Food, Housing and Transporta- spending are considered. Three of the spending areas - Housing, tion. Transportation and Health - hold important implications for the Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- future demand for public services and receive additional considera- ing and Simulation Model, Office of tion in the following section. The five remaining spending areas - Technology Assessment Food, Clothing and Personal Care, Education, Communication and Personal Business and Recreation - are discussed in this section. For all types of households, food, housing and transporta- tion absorb between three quarters and four fifths of all household spending, with housing costs representing the largest single spend- ing item - between one quarter and two fifths of the household budget. Middle Age Singles and Couples with preschool children spend the largest shares of their budgets on these three necessities - 79 percent - followed by Couples with no children., 77 percent. Single Elderly households spend the smallest share in the three combined categories, 73 percent, but the largest share on housing at 40 percent of their household budgets. 57 Different consumer choices and income pressures, how- ever, are reflected in these spending patterns. Middle Age Singles, for example, have the third-lowest average incomes of all household types in Maine, probably reflect- Major Items In ing the disadvantage to households with only one income in the The Household Budget present economy. The high relative cost of necessities to these Pucent of 2005 Budget =,yyCS0i-.!P1-. households is likely to reflect severe financial limits on their C=wn Families freedom to choose in the marketplace. The dollar spending levels Single Parents these households suggests that they place a premium on housing School Families Young Singles qual ty, since they spend more on housing than do other household Couples No Kids N -age Sin I types in their income range, and make up for that premium by fid" g . Young Fmilies purchasing economy-model cars, since they spend the second 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 lowest amount on transportation. Their somewhat high per capita 13 Transport M Housing N Food spending on food suggests that.they may eat out more often than Figure 52 other household t ypes. Maine families In the future are Couples with preschool children, on the other hand, tend to likely to find little more flexibility have higher than average incomes but also require higher-cost in their household budgets than do Mainers today, as housing, family housing. The age of their children suggests that these are transportation and energy prices among the youngest families in Maine and are likely to have rise to absorb a constant portion of future Income gains. purchased homes in the high-priced real estate markets of the 1980s. Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- Families with preschoolers spend the second-highest share of their, ing and Simulation Model, Office of budgets on housing, the same as Middle Age Singles, but they spend Technology Assessment nearly twice as many dollars - second only to Couples with no children, Maine's highest income households. These young families appear to afford their high housing costs by cutting back on food and transportation expenditures - spending in both catego- ries the lowest shares and the fewest dollars of all couples. Spending on necessities is projected to decline relative to total household spending, dropping to between two thirds and three quarters of consumer budgets by the year 2005. Virtually all of this decline will be accounted for by food prices, which are projected to increase more slowly than household incomes. Housing and trans- portation costs are expected to keep pace with rising incomes, suggesting that little relief is in store for consumers already coping with historically high prices for homes, cars and energy. Neverthe- 58 less, a reduction in overall spending on necessities will allow for more discretionary spending by consumers - much of which is expected to be absorbed by health care and recreation. Food Average Household Spending on Food Spending on food absorbed between one fifth and one Elderly Singles 1980 Dollars Young Singles quarter of household budgets in 1980 and is projected to decrease by Mid-age Singles 2005 to between one sixth and one fifth. Elderly Couples and Single SingleParents Elderly Couples Parents spend the largest portions of their incomes on food; Young Families ple-S No Ydds Couples with preschool children and Couples with no children cu Families School Families spend the smallest shares. Elderly Singles spend the fewest dollars Gro- 1-ilies 0 2000 4W 6" 8000 on food, while Couples with grown children spend the most. over $100 a week in 1980 rising to about $140 in the coming 1 0 1980 20D5 century. Household food consumption circulated nearly $1.4- Figure 53 billion through Maine's economy in 1980 and will rise to nearly $2.6-billion after the turn of the century. The dollar cost of food Is likely to rise through the coming decades, but not as rapidly as household Incomes. Housing Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- ing and Simulation Model, Office of Technology Assessment Housing is the largest component of spending for all types of households, absorbing between one quarter and two fifths of household budgets. Elderly Couples spend the smallest part of their budgets on housing - about a quarter, followed closely by Couples with grown children.. These groups are among Maine's oldest families, who were likely to have purchased their first homes before the period of rapid price increases. Single people and young families bear the greatest relative burden of housing costs and many of these households share a high probability of being renters. At the bottom of the housing market, young single people pay average market rents of about $380 a month, which take one thirdoftheirincomes. Below these market rates, single parents also pay out one third of their income for housing but the availability of rental assistance to these families reduces the average monthly cost to about $260. High spending on housing rises to about $850 a 59 month for Couples with no children, who commit nearly two fifths of their budgets to cover housing costs.. These costs are projected to rise by about one fifth through the next fifteen years. Total spending on housing by households was nearly $2-billion in 1980 in Maine and is projected to rise to more than $4.6-billion in 2005. Average Household Spending on Housing 1980 Dollars Single Parents Transportation Young Slngles Elderly Singles NfidAAge Singles Transportation absorbedjust about the same share of house- Elderly Couples Grown Families hold spending in 1980 as did food, ranging from just over a tenth of School Families Young Families all spending by Elderly Singles to a high of more than a quarter of Couples No Kids the budgets of Couples with grown children and Couples with no 0 3000 6" 9000 120M children. Transportation will become relatively more expensive E 1980 M 2005 I than food in the next century, because food is projected,to become Figure 54 relatively cheaper, while relative transportation costs are projected to remain constant. For most other household types, transportation Housing costs are projected to requires about one fifth of their budgets. At the high end of the rise with Incomes, pushing annual mortgage payments to transportation spending pattern, the greater mobility and personal extraordinary levels freedom afforded to older teen agers and young adults in the Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- household is likely to be reflected in the budgets of Couples with ing and Simulation Model, Office of Technology Assessment grown children.. The prevalence of two-earner, two-commuter families and higher-value cars among Couples with no children is likely to be reflected in the high transportation spending by these households. Elderly Singles spend the fewest dollars on transpor Itation just over $900 in 1980 - while Couples with grown children. spent more than $5,800 in that year. Transportation costs are projected to rise by three quarters of their 1980 levels by the year 2005. Transportation spending accounted for nearly $1.4-billion in Maine's 1980 economy and is projected to exceed $3.2-billion after the turn of the century. Health Household spending in the health category includes costs incurred both fordirect health care and forpreventative spendingon 60 physical fitness. Health costs are projected to be the fastest-growing consumer expense through the next two decades. Health. spending is the most strongly influenced by age, with both types of elderly households spending more than a tenth of their budgets on health in 1980, while no other household type spent more than one twentieth. Health costs are projected to consume between one fifth and one Average Household sixth of elderly incomes within the next two decades. Young Singles Spending on Health 1980 Dollars spend the least on health of all households. Total Health spending Young Singles @&dAge Singles in 1980 was estimated at more than $320-million and is projected to Single Par=cnts rise to more than $ 1. 1 -billion by 2005. Young FawrniWhies School Faumniffies Grown Farniffilies Couples No Kids Elderly Singles Education Elderly CouUples 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 IN 1980 M 2005 Spending on education reflects most strongly the presence of school age children in the household and especially the presence Figure 55 of college age young adults. Elderly Singles spend less than one Rapidly rising health costs are percent of their budgets on education, while Couples with grown likely to become more significant children spend more than three percent. Young Singles also spend in every segment of society but about three percent of their budgets on education. Education costs especially among elderly house- holds. are projected to fall by about one fifth through the next fifteen years. Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- Total education spending by all households was more than $101- ing and Simulation Model, Office of million in 1980 and is projected to exceed $186-million by 2005. Technology Assessment Clothing and Personal Care Clothing and Personal Care expenditures are most signifi- cant in the budgets of households where young adults are present, but Single Parents commit the highest portions of their budgets to clothing expenses - more than eight percent. The lowest portions are spent by Elderly Singles atjust under six percent. Clothing and personal care expenses are expected to fall relative to total spending to between about five and seven percent of average household budgets. Dollars spent in this category volume are highest among families with children, which typically spent more than $1,000 a year in 1980. Dollar spending is projected to rise to between $1,500 and $2,500 by families with children after the turn of the century. 61 Total spending on Clothing and Personal Care in 1980 was above $450-million and is projected to rise above $840-million by 2005. Commun ication and Personal Business Average Household Spending on Communication Spending on communication and personal business 1980 Dollars Young Singles which includes telephone and correspondence costs as well as MdAge Singles professional fees charged by bankers, brokers, lawyers, insurance Elderly Couples Elderly Singles agents and funeral directors - absorbs the smallest shares of Young Families Single parents household budgets among couples with children and the largest School Families Grown Families shares among Elderly Singles, who spend more than five percent of Couples No Kids 4-4 their budgets in this category. Spending is projected to rise 0 30060090012015(X1800 N 1980 M 2005 considerably by 2005, to between four and seven percent of household costs. Couples without children spend the highest dollar Figure 56 levels most on communication and personal business - over $700 in 1980 and nearly $1,800 after the turn of the century - followed Communication is A relatively clIosely by Couples with grown children. Total household spending small spending Item for the average household but both the in 1980 was estimated to be more than $200-million and is projected cost and the amount purchased to approach $675-million by 2005. are projected to rise In the future. The Communiation category also Includes various Items of per- sonal business, such as legal fees. Recreation Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- ing and Simulation Model, Office of Spending on recreation - which includes expenditures for Technology Assessment lodging and recreational vehicles, media and sporting events, gar- dening supplies and sports equipment, travel and toys, and for cultural, fraternal and religious activities - represents an impor- tant and increasing part of household budgets, except for Elderly Singles, who spend only about three percent of their budgets in this category. Couples with school age children devote the largest portions of their household spending to recreation - eight percent in 1980 - followed by Young Singles at just over seven percent. Single Parents, Elderly Couples and Middle Age Singles spend relatively small portions of their budgets on recreation; Couples with school age children are expected to increase recreational spending to a tenth of their budgets in the coming century. Other than the necessities - food, housing and transportation - recrea- 62 tional spending will absorb the largest single share of spending by non-elderly households in the year 2005. Couples under age 65 spent more than $ 1,000 on recreation in 1980 and are projected to increase this spending to between $2,000 and $3,600 in the coming decades. Families with school age Average Household Spending on Recreation children are expected to be the high spenders in the next century. 1980 Dollars Elderly Singles Young Singles are likely to be the highest per capita spenders on NfidAge Singles recreation - about $700 in 1980 and up to $1,500 after the turn of Single Parem Young Singles the century. Total household spending on recreation was above Elderly Couples Young F=, $400-million in 1980 and is projected to climb to nearly $1.2-billion GrOVA, F Couples No Kids in 2005 - an increase second only to that projected for health School Fanilics spending through the period. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 N 1980 N 2WS Figure 57 Households are projected to commit more dollars and larger proportions of their budgets to recreation In the future. Families with children are likely to spend the largest amounts In general but single people and childless couples will tend to have high per capita recreational spending. Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- ing and Simulation Model, Office of Technology Assessment 63 SECTION 3 DEMAND FOR SERVICES Total Household In addition to affecting consumer markets in the, future, the Spending on Health changing age'structure of the Maine population is likely to,have a 1.2 - Billions of 1980 Dollus substantial impact on the pattern and priorities of government I - spending on basic services. While our study can offer little in the 0.8 - way of specific guidance to strategic budget planners in state 0.6.. government, key demographic trends can suggest emerging broad OA areas of pressure that will repay early attention. 0.2 0 2005 Figure 58 Sickness and Infirmity The aging population together with rising costs of health care and insurance are projected to As a birth cohort ages, an increasing proportion of its triple total health spending In members suffers illness and with increasing frequency. The age Maine after.the turn of the cen- group 65 and older suffers particularly high rates of illness. Persons tury. age 45 to 64 spend an average 1.3 days per year in hospitals. Persons Source: U.S. Census; Maine Forecast- 65 and older spend an average of 3.8 days. Chronic illness limits the ing and Simulation Model; Office of Technology Assessment activities of 25 percent of the cohort 45 to 64 and 41 percent of the cohort 65 and older. Persons under age 65 spend three percent of their income for medical care. Persons 65 and older spend 10 percent. By the early years of the 21 st Century, elderly health care spending may rise to 20 percent of income. Elderly households spent between $1,100 and $1,400 on average for health care expenses in 1980 and are pro- jected to spend between $2,800 and $3,600 per household within two decades. Maine's total health care bill is projected to be two and one half times higher in the year 2005 than it was in 1980, accounting for more than $1.1 -billion of private spending. 64 The number of persons 65 and older will have a substantial effect on the prevalence of illness in Maine society and on the need for, and expenditures on, medical care. The population 65 and older is projected to increase by 10 percent between 1986 to 1995 and then to remain constant for a decade until 2005. After 2005, the population over age 65 will begin to increase again and this increase The Maine Population 85 Years Old and Older can'be expected to accelerate after 2011 when the oldest baby P-jeLtions to 2.010 boomers turn 65. During the quarter century between 1986 and 2010, the comparatively slow growth in the over 65 population '0" " suggests that the aging of the Maine population will have only a 25" " 20000 moderate effect on the prevalence of illness and medical care 15000 expenditures. 10000.. The very old frequently need professional nursing care. 0 1986 1990 1995 20M 2005 2010 This is reflected in the proportion of people living in nursing homes ' - and homes for the aged. While only four percent of Maine people Figure 59 65 and older were living in these institutional settings in 1980, 26 The population 85 years old and percent of those age 85 and older were living in residential care older Is projected to nearly facilities. The latter number, moreover, does not include those double In 20 years and to In- crease from I percent to 2 per- living at home who required frequent visits by nurses and other cent of the Maine population. medical professionals. The number of persons in the population age This group Is the most likely of all Maine people to need both critical 85 and older, therefore, is an indicator of the prevalence in society and long term health care. of long term illnesses and infirmities requiring frequent treatment Source: U.S. Census and assistance. The population 85 and older is projected to nearly double between 1986 and 2010, increasing by 15,000 persons, from 17,000 at the beginning of the period to 32,000 at the close. Persons 85 and older made up I percent of the 1986 population of Maine; they will account for two percent in 2010. This suggests that the number of people in Maine society requiring frequent, often daily, medical treatment will increase sharply over the coming quarter century. Alcohol and Drug' Abuse Alcohol and drug abuse are likely to decline from 1986 to 2000 and then increase again through 2010. This pattern reflects 65 projected changes in the population most likely to abuse drugs and alcohol - males between the ages of 18 and 29. Males in this age range, for example, are two and a half times more likely than women and older men. to be arrested for drug use, drunkenness and drunk driving. However, whether arrest rates reflect abuse rates remains Males Aged 18 to 29 In an open question. Young males may also be more public than other The Maine Population groups in their drug and alcohol use or may display other lifestyle 120000.. Projections to 2010 attributes that raise the likelihood of arrest. Similarly, the possibil- 115MG - ity that alcohol and prescription drug abuse among the elderly, 110000. suggested in some recent national research, may become more 1050mmo - I 0@00"Oo prominent in an aging population must also be left open for 950M consideration. The 18 to 29 year old male population is projected 90WO to fall through the turn of the century to about seven percent of the 850M total population, followed by a return to an eight percent share in 80" 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20 10 when there will be about 15,000 fewer males in this age group than in 1986. Figure 60 A decrease In substance abuse through the rest of the century Is projected on the basis of declin- ing numbers of young adult men. Housing This group Is more likely to be arrested for substance abuse than the rest of the Maine popula- Changes in the housing market through thepast twodecades tion. have left some Maine families at a severe disadvantage, while other Source: U.S. Census Maine families have received the principal benefits of rising prices and the changing construction mix. Only about 50,000 of the state's estimated 450,000 households have been able to hold their housing costs to the traditional standard of one quarter of income. For more than 200,000 Maine families, housing now requires nearly one third of their incomes. And for another 100,000 to 150,000 of Maine's youngest or poorest families, housing costs are at or nearing 40 percent of the budgets they have to spend. Housing assistance is already the top spending priority for one in eight Mainers between the ages of 18 and 34 and for one in five of those over age 65. About two in five Maine people of all ages would like to see more public spending on housing assistance, but about the same number would like to see spending remain where it is today. Fewer than one in ten of all Mainers place housing 66 assistance-atthe@top-of -their spe'nd@ing,p'r,'lon*ties,,,incfuding.,onl'.y.@ three in, 10Gof the,pofitically-i'mport@,qnt,6aby@boomer@s. Nearly-orie in@ ten would;l'ike@ro-see@hou@singassistancer-edbeed;.. The- probl@ mn, facing policy makers: ixn@ tfie. future,, therefore'., wi-11 eacom pas& both, tight targeting, and restricted progra m . desf-gry, Maine can. neither, afford to, ignore the burden of hou-sing, affordabilitycin, th-ose, who need ToUaHousehold assistance-,, nor totin d6rcut th"e- polfticat, will toleasetharburden with Spending on-Rousing Biffions of 1980 DoUars, overly-broad or, excessivefy, costfy pr6gr=,s. 5 - 4.5 4 - 3.5 3 - 2.5, Trgn8gortafion 2 1.5 1 0.5 Tra'n'spor,tation,is*@en'[email protected],ty!i.,n'@a-la,r,go,,r,ur,[email protected]@Mai..,ne0 and, the increasing, cost of energy, and vehicle& sin@ce' the: 1970s has - . 1980: P 'ushad., transporfation@ spendirig to, becorn, e axelatively large part of Figure 61 tht aver agehousehold, budget - about a fifth@ on-, average for most Total spending: on housing is Maine, fa milies. At the, low end of transportatim spending, single projected to. remain. at nearly one parents. =4- single ef-derl"y people@ appear, w attempt to control, their third of all consumption In Maine, rising by more than $2-billion in transportatfon@ costs, by: relying. oni public- transportation:, by the the coming decades. Without conscious, lirnitatfon@ of unnecessary travel, and, by the purchase of public Intervention, affordable housing Is likely to remain a older cars-. Thest lifestyle choices suggest that futura public problem. transportation. budgets: and- inevitabte rest dictions; on, vehicular air Source: U S. Census; Maine Forecast- emissions are likely tG@ pfact these two. types of households at ing and Simulation Mbdel, Office of substantial n@sk of linlited: mobility beyond the urban. centers, of the Technology Assessment state. 67 SECTION 4 CIVIC LIFE Organizations' Share Participation in politics, community affairs, religion and in of Household Time civic and social associations are all likely to increase through the 2 - Hours perWe& coming quarter century. While this will make public life more 1.9 - 1.6 - vibrant, it will also increase levels of dissension and disagreement 1.4 - as more people become active in their communities. Elected 1.2 - I I officials and community leaders are likely to find it more difficult 01 0 *6 to obtain agreement on policies and decisions. 0.4 0.2 0 1985 The projected increase in public participation will result from the aging of the population. Older adults are more active in Figure 62 civic life that are younger ones. Three quarters of Americans over age 35, but only half of those between 18 and 34, registered to vote The eroding amount of free time in 1986. Americans over age 35 gave an average $750 (or three available to Americans has resulted In a trend toward reduc- percent of income) to charity in 1984. Adults under age 35 gave ing commitments to voluntary only $400 (or 1.5 percent of income). The population age 35 and and public service organizations. olderis projected to increase by more than 200,000 persons between Source: Office of Technology Assess- ment 1986 and 2010, climbing 11 percent in proportionate share of the total population. Voluntarism Voluntary participation represents akeydimensionof public life in Maine, where state government relies heavily on a citizen Legislature, citizen advisory boards and regulatory panels, where town governments tap local volunteers for essential planning and decision-making functions and where community life, especially in rural areas, depends on public-spirited individuals for services and 68 amenities that would otherwise lie beyond financial reach. But with far-reaching structural chang es already underway in Maine's popu- lation, economy and patterns of settlement, the role of voluntarism. in the state's future is likewise subject to considerable chan2e. Advancing urbanization and expanding prosperity are bring- Volunteers In ing a faster pace and greater complexity to life in Maine and each of Maine's Regions these forces for change is placing increased Permt of Regiowl PbptAauon pressure on the critical 65-- voluntary resource time. 60- 55.. 504 Long distance commuting, two@ea m-er family structures and 45-- the continuing expansion of cultural and recreational opportunities 4o.. in the state combine to erode the free time available to even thernoSt 35 South N" K"D."W:n 'C." public spirited of citizens, limi ti ng the time available for voluntary - Regions Mairw contributions to their communities. An explosion in small business 1 entrepreneurship in the 1980s has contributed vitality to Maine's Figure 63 economy but at the risk of undercutting the vitality of Maine com- More than halt of Maine adult .s mpnities, -as entrepreneurs find the long hours and extended work- volunteer their time without pay weeks demanded by young and growing businesses in the pool of to help others. Volunteer service Is particularly strong In Southern hours that might have been devoted to public service on school or Maine and In'Aroost .ook County. planning boards, as Little League coaches or Scout leaders, as Source: North east Research, Inc. church supper organizers or fire and rescue volunteers. Even when the time for service to others is available, Maine's volunteers may find the productivity of that time severely challenged by the complexity of the decisions they are asked to make as the costs of poor decisions and missed opportunities rise, as the competing interests with stakes in those decisions become more numerous and less compatible, and as the technical dimen- sions of those decisions tap expanding information resources and demand increasing study and expertise. Not only the volume of development applications, for ex- ample, but also the difficulty of evaluating those applications as they impact on traffic patterns, water quality, wildlife habitat, air emissions, waste capacity, visual and recreational quality, school enrollments, housing affordability and local property taxes, each combine to drive planning boards into midnight sessions and 69 communities to development moratoriums. Even, as the time available to volunteer at all becomes scarce, the time demanded of those who do volunteer in increasing. Nationally, changing patterns of time use reflect a broad Education and decrease in the time available to Americans for non-working Maine Volunteers Percent of Group Population activities. In only a handful of these activities has the commitment 80 @ of time increased since the 1970s. Even time spent watching 70 - 60 - television has slipped by nearly three-quarters of an hour per week, 50 40 while the time devoted to organizational activities has fallen by 21 30 20 10 percent. Of - I Under 12 lEgh Some CoUege School College Grad Educati n Maine Despite the decrease in available time, Maine's voluntary Groups sector remains healthy, and the characteristics of present day Figure 64 volunteers suggest that. voluntary service will increase, rather than decrease in the future. More than half of the Maine people polled Volunteering Is strongly related by the Commission said they had personally done volunteer work to education, rising with the level of schooling. But high school actual work helping others, outside the family and without pay graduates make up just over half during 1988. Among the groups most likely to volunteer, of all volunteers In Maine participation rates can reach 60 and even 70 percent. And even Source: Northeast Research, Inc. among the groups least likely to volunteer, 30 to 40 percent are nevertheless active in service to others. Maine's volunteers appear to recognize an obligation to return to their com munities something of what they have them- selves received. Education, for example, is the paradigmatic public good, made universally available by the community and almost im- possible to acquire without the assistance and cooperation of others. Thus, voluntarism in Maine rises with the level of education and those who have received the most from society tend to give the most back in return. Half of the state's high school graduates perform volunteer work, as do two in three of those who have attended college and nearly three in four of those who graduated from college. But even among those with the least education, more than one in four volunteer to help others and more than half of all volunteers in Maine have a 12th grade education orless. Among this 70 slight majority of volunteers with no more than a high school education, income tends to be the driving characteristic of voluntary activity as, again, those who have gained the most from their communities return the most in service. Among those with no more than a high school education, one in three earning less than $ 10,000 a year volunteer while one in two of those earning $30,000 or more Incomes of Maine volunteer. Thus, the pattern of those who have received the most Volunteers tending to return the most is again evident. 70.. Percent of GroW Populafion 65.. 60.. Curiously, the relationship between income and volun- 55-,- 50.. tarism does not affect the service rates of those who have attended 45 ur 40 or graduated from college, where high rates of volunteering ocC 35.. 31, regardless of income levels but where those rates do not rise with 0-10 IOt2O 20130 3040 40+ Thousan& of DW@ incomes. - Income Groups - Maine Differences between educational groups are also evident in Figure 65 a comparison of the regional pattern of voluntarism around Maine. Volunteering also appears to be strongly related to household Income but, because Income Volunteer rates approach 60 percent in Aroostook County levels tend to rise with education and in Southern Maine and fall to between 40 and 50 percent in levels, education appears to be the factor the best explains Central and Western Maine. But among those who have attended volunteering. or graduated from college, these regional differences disappear and Source: Northeast Research, Inc. those with the highest levels of education, regardless of where they live, tend to volunteer at the same high rate. Among those with no more than a high school education, however, regional differences are intensified. In Southern Maine and Aroostook County, between 50 and 55 percent of persons with up to a 12th grade education volunteer while only 30 to 40 percent of this educational group volunteer in Central and Western Maine. In a number of cases, education also appears to be the driving force behind apparent relationships between voluntarism and other demographic characteristics. Inmigrants, for example, tend to be much more likely to volunteer than native Mainers, and this relationship appears to change smoothly with the length of residency in Maine. Thus, 68.2 percent of the most recent inmi- grants say they volunteer, compared with 59.5 percent of the longer- term inmigrants, 52.7 percent of Mainers who moved out of state 71 IN and later returned, and 48.4 percent of lifelong Mainers. Hidden in this pattern, however, is the tendency of inmigrants to be more 0@ highly educated than Maine natives, and for the newest inmigrants to be the most highly educated of all. Controlled for education, the relationship disappears. Ages of Maine Volunteers Percent of Group Population Similarly misleading patterns occur,in connection with 65-- income and with property ownership. Renters appear to be the least 60- likely and landowners the most likely to volunteer; persons with $20,000 or lower incomes appear to be the least likely and persons 50.1 45. with $30,000 or higher incomes the most likely to volunteer. But 40- when. the relationship between high education and high incomes 35 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ and property ownership is taken into account, neither income nor - Age Groups - Maine property tends to be related to voluntarism; instead, education appears to explain the tendency to volunteer. Figure 66 Volunteering appears to decline The relationship between voluntarism and age presents the with age after rising from the low levels of young adulthood but the most complex pattern of interacting forces. Here, age, education real explanation may be the concentration of children In and the presence of children in the household all interact to generate households headed by 25 to 44 high rates of voluntary service - nearly four in five - among year old and the higher education highly educated parents, while neither children nor age define a levels of this age group. pattern for those with no more than a high school education. Source: Northeast Research, Inc. Voluntarism, then, appears to be most strongly related to education and educational levels are rising in Maine as baby boomers age and as inmigrants continue to arrive and as the genera- tions under age 25 exceed the educational attainment rates of previous generations. Despite the pressures of time and complex- ity, therefore, the future of public service in Maine is likely to be positive by this broadest of indicators. But among the most educated Mainers, the presence of children in the household tends to push volunteer rates to near 80 percent and the absence of children tends drive volunteer rates to near 60 percent. The trend toward fewer children in the society of the future - based on the smaller numbers of young adults available for parenthood @ would suggest a dampening of the rate of voluntarism may be possible in the future. 72 CitizefiPArtidpation A second dimension of public life in Maine is participation in the political process. Voting represents the fundamental political act in the American system, and presidential elections tend to draw the greatest numbers of voters to the polls nationwide. National Maine Presidential estimates of voter turnout in the presidential elections of the 1980s Election Turnouts average around D percent of voting age adultsi while in Maine the Population and Participation (000) 70-. 1000 three presidential elections of the decade have drawn an average 65 60. Ann,, goo population percent of the Eige-eli an average that hag been sol 91 40. .600 fairly consistent through more thah three decades. 30 ax, @x X W, V@ .400 21D 2W In its polling, the Commission took, a broader view of 10 political participation as including voting in federal, state or local 0 . . . 0 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 elections, attending local government meetings, membership in 0 Rate N Voting 0 Turnout pol it ic al ly-iriterestedorgariizations and correspondence with news- Age papers or elected officials. Like the political process itself, polling Figure 67 on public policy questions tends to miss nonparticipators - nearly a fifth of those contacted refused to participate in the poll @ and the Maine's voter participation rates have been relatively steady In findings consequently tend to overstate the level of public activism recent history around 65 percent in the Maine population. Nevertheless, the results do provide a of voting age adults. useful perspective on those who do participate @ who they are, Source: U.S. Census where they live, what demographic characteristics they have in common. In contrast to the better than 60 percent turnout of all voters measured in any single presidential election, more than 80 percent of the "participators@' captured in the Comiiiission's polling said they voted in at least one election @ federal, state or local - during the previous year. The source of this distinction - whether characteristic of the sample. itself or a result of the more plentiful opportunities to vote allowed by the phrasing of the question @ is less important than dominance of voting in the hi drarchy of political acts, even among the more. activist population that responded to the poll. While four in five respondents, said they voted, only about one in two physically attended a local government meeting, one in 73 three belongs to a politically-interested organization and only one in five expressed theiropinions publicly through letters to the editor or to elected officials. Taking all four forms of political activity together, the poll Measures or Maine's found that 10 percent of Mainers sampled do not participate in the Citizen Participation process at all, 40 percent engage in only one of the activities and Percent of Adults 90 - Participating in Activity nearly 75 percent engage in no more than two political activities so during the course of a year. Nearly twenty percent of the sample 70 - 60 - participated in three of the political activities defined in the poll and 50 - seven percent participated in all four. On average across the entire 40 30 sample, Mainers participate in 1.8 of the four activities - voting, 20 10 attending local meetings, belonging to politically-interested organi- 0 zations and corresponding with newspapers or elected officials. Election Meeting Member Ixtter Figure 68 Like voluntarism, political participation is strongly influ- When asked If they voted In a enced by education, with the most highly educated Mainers tending federal, state or local Election; to participate in twice as many activities as do the least educated attended a Meeting of their local government; paid Membeiship' 2.5 activities per college graduate vs. f .2 activities per person with dues to a group that takes stands less than a 12th grade education. But unlike voluntarism, political on Issues; or wrote a Letter to a newspaper or elected official, participation is also influenced by other demographic characteris- four In five of our sample did the tics independent of education, as well. first, but only one In five did the last. @ I I Source: Northeast Research, Inc. Income levels and property ownership are among the most strongly related of these characteristics to political participation, with property owners and those with the highest incomes between a third and a half more active than renters and those with the lowest incomes. In contrast to the case of voluntarism, in which volunteers were disproportionately the parents of children in the household, political activity tends to be related to households that contain more than one adult - whether or not children are present as well. Yet political participation is also strongly related to voluntarism itself, with volunteers about a third more active than non-volunteers. Age is also related to the degree of political participation, most strongly in the tendency of the youngest adults - those 18 to 24- to have low levels of participation. Political activity then rises with age to a peak in the 45-64 year old age group and then drops 74 back slightly among the elderly to the sa -me level as among those 25 to 44. Political participation is related. to other dern ographic char- acteristics as well,, but the relationships are more complex and involve educational levels as well as the individual characteristics. Education; and Thus,, among, those with no, more than a, high school education, Citizen Participation Average Number of participation is higher in small rural' towns of less than 50W 2.6 7Public Activities 2'4 population than it is in the cities and suburbs of metropolitan areas. 2.2 - 27 Among those with. higher, educational levels, participation rates 1.8 1.6 4 tend to be the sam. e regardless of t he size, of the town in, which they III live. A similar relationship exists between participation and gender, Under 12 High Some College where women with lower levels of education tend to be less active School College Grad Education - Maine than men with lower educational levels, but both m en and women Group with higher educational levels tend to participate with the same Age and Citizen degree of activism. Apparent differences between regional partici- Participation pation rates and between natives and inmigrants are also,explained Average Number of 2A.! Public Activities by the educational differences between these groups, with higher 2.21 participation rates, in coastal regions and among inmigrants disap- 2- 1.8 - pearing when education level is controlled. 1.6 IA"l 1.2- As is the case with voluntarism, the prospects for increasing I 18-24 25!" 4@ 64 6i, levels of political participation appear to be strong in the context of - Age Group Maine the demographic trends shaping Maine's future. Rising incomes and increasing levels of education would bring more Mainers into Figure 69 the demographic groups most likely to be politically active. The middle-aging of the population will place the largest number of In the four public activities Mainers in the 45 to 64 year old age group that is the most politically measured In our poll, participa- tion rises with education levels active, while the severe decline in the 18 to 24 year old age group - college graduates participate that will prove so disruptive to labor markets will also drain In an average of two to three of the activities; people with less population from the least politically active segment of the overall than 12 years of schooling population. participate In just over one. Maine people over age 24 tend to participate In nearly 2 of the four public activities measured on average, with only a small vari- ation In participation levels after age 25. Source: Northeast Research, Inc. 75 I 1w, SECTION 5 THELABORPOOL The Labor Pool Economic growth in the 1980s has changed Maine from a and The Workforce labor surplus area to one of tight labor markets and rising wages. (ON) Inmignition Scenario 12M - While pockets of high unemployment have persisted in some of the 1000. more isolated, rural parts of the state, the problem of finding enough 800. 6W workers to fill the available jobs has replaced at least for a time 400 the state's historic preoccupation with ensuring the creation of 200- enough jobs to employ the available workforce. Whether this 0- 1990 1995 20M 2005 2010 reversal of the historic pattern will continue into the future is M Adults 0 Prime 22 lAbor Pod Force uncertain and will depend on the interaction of economic, demo- graphic, technological and behavioral trends that will determine Figure 70 both the supply of and the demand for labor. Maine's labor supply Is drawn from the population of all adults however, Is the smaller popula- over age 15. Its prime labor pool, tion between the ages of high Labor Supply school graduation and retirement. Both of these populations are Maine's prime labor pool - the popullation of the state projected to Increase In the is projected to increase by future, as Is the labor force the between the ages of 18 and 64 proportion of all adults ready and seventeen percent between 1986 and 2010, rising from 714,000 willing to work. Despite this growth, the number of jobs In persons to 838,000. Under the assumption of constant inmigration, Maine's economy has the poten- the prime labor pool would increase by nearly 19 percent to 849,000 tial to grow even faster. persons. How many of these potential workers actually participate Source: U.S. Census; Maine Simula- in the labor market, however, will be a matter of personal choice. tion and Forecasting Model During the past twenty years, women have entered the labor force in unprecedented numbers. In 1970, two fifths of adult women were in the labor force, while by 1985 that number was more than half. Seven in ten adult women under age 65 polled by the Commission were in the labor force in 1988; among women over 76 age 65, more than one sixth continued to be active in the workforce. More than seven working women in ten work full time, and nearly eight in ten of those under age 65. These findings suggest that the labor force participation rate for all adult women has continued to increase at the rapid pace set in the early 1980s and may be nearing 60 percent. Maine's Labor Force Participation Rate At the same time that women have been moving into the 68 - Pm=m of Adulu 16+ labor force, an unprecedented proportion of men have opted for 66 64 - early retirement. Our polling identified nearly one man in five 62 between the ages of 50 and 64 to be retired and out of the workforce 60 58 in 1988 and the Census Bureau's annual population survey reached 56 14 a similar conclusion in 1987. Only three quarters of the men in this 52 age group work, while an extraordinary 97 percent of those 35-49 50 . . . . . . ... . do so, and nearly 90 percent of those 18-34. Among men over age - 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 65, one in ten continue to work full time and one in six keep active Figure 71 with part-time work. Mainers have been quite active In the labor force during the 1980s and the state's participation has The prosperous economic conditions of the late 1980s reached historic highs In the appear to have had a strong influence on the choices Maine people prosperous middle and late years have made about working. The movement of women into the labor of the deca.de. market appears to have accelerated since 1985 to the fastest rate Source: U.S. Census; Maine Dept of Labor, Northeast Research, Inc. since World War Two. The return of the elderly to the workforce in the late 1980s appears to have reversed a precipitous 25-year decline and returned the participation rate of those over 65 to the 1960 level. The overall participation rate of all adults over 18 in the labor force appears also to have accelerated in 1988, even from the rising trend established between 1985 and 1987. Plentiful jobs, rising wages and incomes appear to be drawing Maine people into the workforce at an unprecedented rate, but Maine continues to have the smallest proportion of its popula- tion in the labor force of all the New England states. Since the mid- 1980s, however, the improvement in Maine's participation rate has been double thatof therestof theregion and second only to Vermont among the New England states. Recent workforce improvements, however, are almost wholly 77 accounted for by the increasing numbers of working women in the state, and, to a lesser extent, by the return of elderly people to thejob market for the first time in a quarter century. Women's participation has improved by up to ten percent in the late 1980s and elderly participation has doubled. The participation of Maine men in thejob Women in the market in almost unchanged at about three in four. By considering Maine Workforce the different participation rates for Maine men and women at differ- Percent of Women 16+ 65 - ent stages of the life cycle, emerging limits are suggested for 60 - Maine's labor supply 55 - 1 50 - 45 Among adults between the ages of 18 to 34, for example, 40 35 four in five are already working. At the lower end of this age group, 30 - post-secondary education is a common preoccupation and one that 25 - 20 is likely to only increase with time. Nearly one person in five in this 1 1960 1970 1980 1985 19188 age group is, in fact, a full time student. For women, this is the age Figure 72 of child bearing and child care. Yet seven women in ten of this age Most of the Improvement In are already in the workforce, another one in ten is a student, and only Maine's labor force participation about one in five is a full-time homemaker. Among men of this age, rate during the prosperity of the middle 1980s has resulted from nine in ten are already in the workforce, and nearly eight of the the continuing strong movement remaining ten percent are in school full time. Whether the relative of women Into the workforce. handful of full time students and homemakers in this group,who Source: U.S. Census; Maine Dept. of remain out of the work force by obvious and understandable choice, Labor, Northeast Research, Inc. can be enticed to work at any wage is questionable. Among adults between 35 and 50 years old, nearly nine in ten are already at work, including virtually all of the men and four in five of the women. The younger half of this group includes the oldest and largest part of the baby boom, whose female members have been a driving force behind the trend toward rising numbers of women in the labor force. As more baby boomers age into this group and as the World War H generation passes age 50, it is likely that the one woman in six, who describes herself as a full time home- maker, will decline. Yet even allowing for this possibility, so few persons in this age group remain out of the workforce that the resulting additions to the supply of labor are likely to be small. Among persons over age 65, one in five continue to be active in the labor market, including twenty five percent of the men and 78 sixteen percent of the women. This cohort breaks into two sub- groups, those between 65 and 74 years old and those over 75. Only the youngerof these subgroups holds any real prospect forincreased participation in the labor force, but it is the older of the two groups that will be growing through the next twenty ye ars. The population 65-74 will remain nearly flat or decline slightly through fifteen of Workforce Participation those twenty years and will begin a period acceleration only after in New England Pement of Adults 16+ 2005. It is likely that most of the working population over age 65 Maine are among this younger group, which would, therefore, result in a R@hode Is1mmd MasmachUsCus participation rate of more than one in three for persons 65-74. m a u NewEngland Whether a significant share of the remaining 60,000 full time retirees in this age group can be enticed back into the labor market Connecticut after a lifetime of Iwork will be an important determinant of the N.Hampdd= 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 future size of the workforce. E 1985 1987 The only clear opportunity for substantial improvements in Figure 73 workforce participation in the future comes in the 50-64 year old age Fewer Mainers have participated group. Only about two members of this group in three are em- historically In the workforce than ployed, including three-quarters of the men and 57 percent of the Is typical of the New England region but Maine appears to have women. More than one in five women in this group describes narrowed the gap since 1985 herself as a full time homemaker, the largest proportion of any age Source: U.S. Census; Maine Dept of group. Nearly twenty percent of the men and 16 percent of the Labor, Northeast Research, Inc. women between 50 and 64 have taken early retirement, shares that are most likely to be concentrated at the upper end of the group or between the ages of 58 and 64. While some increase in the participation rate is possible, this age group is presently dominated by the Depression era generation and, from the mid- 1990s to the middle of the following decade, will be dominated by the Second World War generation - the two generations together making up the smallest birth groups in modem history. Even with increased participation rates, therefore, the numbers of additional workers to be drawn from this group will be small. Older teenagers between 15 and 17 years of age also contribute to the overall size of the labor force, most often by accepting part time work after school or during vacations. To the extent that the members of this group are available for full time work, their contribution to the labor force is more than offset by the 79 negative social impact of their having dropped out of school. While the Commission developed no new information on the participation rate of 15 to 17 year olds -just under half worked in 1985 - the overall size of this group will reach a long term low in 1990 and will climb only slowly through the following 15 years to the numbers The Components. of that existed in the mid- 1980s. Maine's Workforce Percent Participating in 1998 100- 9U - KU - ./U 60- 3U, 40, 3U :ZU Labor Demand 1U U 18 - 34 35 - 49'50 - 64 Prime 65 + I pod Whether the lessening in the historical slack in Maine's 0 Adults E Men 0 Women 18+ labor supply will result in labor shortages or constraints on eco- nomic growth in the future will depend as well on the levels of Figure 74 demand for labor that emerge in the coming twenty years. A key trend determining labor demand will be the future performance of Most age groups In Maine appear to be working at or near their Maine's economy. maximum levels, except for the 50 to 64 year old age group In which early retirements have Maine in the 1980s has reached a new level of economic pulled people out of the workforce. Limits on future prosperity, unmatched since the middle of the 19th Century. While growth In the Maine labor force this prosperity is certainly influenced by the presence of fortuitous may become apparent In the 1990s. circumstances like the hot real estate markets of the mid 1980s, its foundation appears to be a fundamental restructuring of the state's Source: Northeast Research, Inc. manufacturing sector. The role of manufacturing in generating just under one- thir4 of all economic activity in Maine is almost unchanged since 1969, but the kinds of products Maine produces are undergoing a historic shift. By the early 1990s, most of the state's manufacturing jobs will be in the durable goods industries - electronic equipment and fabricated metal products, forexample - and a shrinking share will be in the traditional nondurables sector that created Maine's ,ilk past reputation as shoemaker, weaver and papermaker to the nation. As the 1980s began, only two manufacturing jobs in five were in the durables sector; by the end of the decade, the ratio had become nearly one in two. At the end of the century, the transfor- 80 mation of Maine's manufacturing economy 'will have come nearly full circle, with the durables sector contributing nearly three manu- facturingjobs in five - an almost complete reversal of the situation in 1980. Maine' s economy has also become more diversified in the Maine's Gross past twenty years as the mill town syn me o singe arge State Product Biffions of 1977 MR= employers has been replaced by a growing mix of light industry, of 20 T=nd 18 business services tapping a regional market, and of consumer 16- 4 services that have expanded to meet the demand created under the I 12 HistM new regime of prosperity. 10 '00" 8 6- 4- Since 1982, Maine has maintained a lower unemployment 2- rate than the nation for the first time in a generation. During the 0 . . . same period, personal income has increased faster in Maine than in 1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2@00 2C@5 2010 the nation for the first time in fifty years. More than 100,000 new Figure 75 jobs were created in Maine between 1980 and 1988, a 35 percent The restructured Maine economy annual increase over the previous decade. of the 1980s Is projected to continue on a moderate growth path through the turn of the Mainein the 1980s hasjoinedthe New Englandregion in the century, generating new jobs faster than the Internal population difficult process of industrial restructuring in the face of new global Is adding people. competition in manufacturing and the emerging dominance of the Source: Maine Simulation and Fore- service sector in the domestic economy. During the 1970s, this casting Model regio*nal process translated into the nation's highest rates of unem- ployment and worker dislocation as wave after wave of shoe, textile and durable goods manufacturers succumbed to the pressures of high unit costs for energy and intense market competition from lower cost imported products. Yet by 1983, following the devastating impact of two severe recessions, most of New England's marginal production capacity had been eliminated, leaving the surviving economy among the nation's best prepared for the period of sustained growth that has characterized the remainder of the decade. Thi s paradoxical process what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called the "creative destruction" at the heart of the capitalist system - is now taking place throughout the American economy as obsolete producers go under and free up the resources they controlled for new uses. 81 The New England economies - perhaps the hardest hit in the 1970s - were the first to emerge from the 1982 recession. The strong performance that has followed reflects the region's lead position. By 1985-86, the generalized regional prosperity had reached Maine from southern New England, generating a surge in Labor Force job creation in the state that is pushing Maine's share of all private Dynamics In Maine nonfarm jobs in the U.S. from a range around 0.48 percent that 900-- Imnigration Scmario characterized the 1970-1985 period to a range around 0.52 percent 8004 700- at the end of the 1980s. In terms of the internal strength of the Maine 500- 600- 400-- economy and its competitive position relative to the rest of the 300-, nation, the potential exists for this stronger employment share to be 21004 100 preserved for the next twenty years. While this gain on the nation 0 f ' - 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 of roughly one twentieth of one percent appears small in percentage 0 Civilian 12 Prime E Labor Jobs pod Force terms, it represents in actuality the creation of nearly a quarter of a million jobs in Maine in the past 15 years, with the sharpest gains Figure 76 experienced since 1985. The tight labor markets of the late 1980s are directly related to this substantial and accelerating level of job Labor markets are likely to be creation. tight In Maine In the 1990s but improvements in participation rates and productivity could be Yet this very front-running status invites new domestic sufficient to preserve the market competition from imitators in the private sector and from economic balance. Source: Maine Simulation and Fore- developers in the public sector who face a shorter and less costly casting Model learning curve that benefits from the New England experience. As other regions of the country begin to reproduce the New England performance of the 1980s, Maine's and the region's share of all U.S. jobs may return to more long term historical levels. Maine's job creation potential - particularly through the 1990s - may well exceed the potential for growth in the labor force, except under the optimistic assumption that inmigration will in- crease from present levels by about 40 percent-. The potential shortfall of labor is particularly acute among Maine's youngest workers, those 18 to 24 who typically fill newly created jobs at the entry level. This age group is projected to experience an absolute decline through 20 10 of 19,000 persons, a drop of nearly 14 percent. This loss, occurring in a strategic component of the labor force, can be expected to exacerbate whatever tight conditions do emerge in the labor market through the coming years. 82 Maine's economy has the potential to double over 1985 levels by the year 2010, as measured either by the real dollar value of output or by the broader measure of real Gross Regional Product. Employment gains associated with this level of growth could be on the order of nearly a quarter-million jobs through the same period an increase of nearly 40 percent. Growth in the labor force, however, through the same period is likely to be closer to 20 percent. The key to continued economic growth without continued job growth will be the rate of technology adoption and productivity improvement achieved by Maine employers. Maine's manufactur- ing sector has improved productivity on a par with the rest of the nation during the 1980s. During the 1990s, the challenge of improving productivity will confront the service sector, which has absorbed successive waves of women, baby boomers and dislocated industrial workers but has not yet faced a serious economic chal- lenge from global competition or from human resource limits. The increasing role of technology in the workplace repre- sents the uncertainty factor in the future demand for labor in Maine. Technology typically moderates the demand for labor as machines are substituted for human employees. This effect is visible in the recent performance of a number of Maine's manufacturing indus- tries, but is nowhere more visible than in the performance of the paper industry in which the trends in investment, employment and output are clear to even casual observation. Industry modernization has absorbed more than a billion dollars in new investment in the 1980s and about $3.5-billion since World War II. Through more than fourdecades, the numberofjobs in the paperindustry has rarely varied from a range of 17,000 to 18,000, while output has increased steadily since 1970 at a rate of about three percent per year. In the coming twenty years, the industry is projected to achieve similar production gains with even fewer workers and paper industry employment is projectedto drop by nearly 4,000jobs through 2010. The difficulty with projecting an overall decline in employ- ment as jobs are automated, however, stems from two countervail- ing effects that may also follow technology investment. In a study of the employment effects of technology investment on a regional 83 economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that the direct job losses arising from auto- mation in some industries tend to be offset by job growth in other industries. The net effect, therefore, may be neutral in terms of overall employment, although the industries experiencing job creation may be located at a distance from those experiencing losses, may require different skills than those possessed by the workers displaced by automation, or may pay substantially lower wages than did thejobs that were lost. A more positive result was identified in a Japanese Labor Ministry study, which found that one- half of the firms that automated production ended by adding new jobs to keep up with increased orders and expanding market shares. Whether the demand for labor increases or decreases in response to future investments in technology in Maine, then, would appear to depend on how well Maine firms compete in the global economy of the future. Investment in technology allows productivity to improve and can enhance a firm's competitive position. The result may be a loss in jobs if the firrn's management uses its improved position simply to hold on to its existing markets, or job gains if management responds aggressively to the new opportunity. Failure to invest in new technology, however, would appear to guarantee both job and business losses as firms lose their ability to compete in a changing marketplace. Technology may hold an additional benefit on the supply side of the labor market as well by expanding the pool of potentially productive workers to include those with limited skills, with physical handicaps and those who may be home-bound through family responsibilities or lack of mobility. While the expansion of home work opportunities has been most evident for high-level knowledge workers capable of "telecommuting" via computer linkages with markets anywhere in the world, the expansion of production-based cottage industries and piece work opportunities has also been evident in Maine in the 1980s. With the exception of the expanding use of YFY systems to provide telecommunications access to the hearing impaired, the adoption of specialized technology that expands the opportunities for Maine's 68,000 handicapped population has not been particularly evident in the state. Nevertheless, sub- stantial gains are being made nationally in the field of enabling technologies, which will certainly begin to impact Maine as these products move from the innovation stage into broader markets. 84 CONCLUSION THE DIRECTION OF CHANGE The demographic, economic and attitudinal trends identified in this paper do not determine the shape of Maine's future but they,do contribute strongly to the direction of change. They can be altered or overcome but only with conscious effort and considerable difficulty. For trends that are long established, the effort required for change will often be extreme and will be made at substantial risk of failure. For trends that are now emerging, action taken quickly will require the least cost and offer the greatest chance of success. Thus, effective action in shaping the future of Maine will require the careful concentration of effort, resources and political will on the limited number of options that offer the greatest opportunity or hold the greatest threat and that provide the greatest reasonable chance of success. Four trends appear to be compelling, both as the inevitable results of changes now taking place and as the driving forces for additional change in the future. 0 Slower growth was built into Maine's future nearly thirty years ago when fertility rates began to decline after the great surge in birth rates that followed World War Il. The slowdown will give the state the opportunity to adjust to the rapid changes of the past two decades and to plan for the physical direction of future development and for the preservation of the state's resources. But inmigration will become increasingly important to the state's future growth, its character and its vitality. Maine will become more dependent on an imported labor force and will have to compete with other states to attract young workers. And in time the non-native share of the population may climb from 30 to 40 percent. 0 An aging population will stabilize society and strengthen its basic institutions. Leisure time and spending will climb; prosperity will increase at the household level. Medical expenses will climb toward a coming explosion of demand pressure and costs; medical technology and scientific advance are likely to be stimulated into a period of rapid achievement. Health insurance and pension access will continue to 85 rise on the public agenda. Labor markets will tighten but school populations will stabilize, bringing comprehensive education reform within financial and logistic reach. But school constituencies will decline and budget fights become tougher. Recreational, cultural and educational opportunities for children will become scarcer at the community level, and with them, children's quality of life. 0 Metropolitanization will change southern Maine, as the region absorbs most of what growth is still to come. A critical mass of population and economic activity will trigger self-sustaining urban development, but will also bring crowding, congestion, fractured communities, recreational resource losses and a regional inmigrant majority. Extensive suburbanization will keep pressure on the region's villages and towns fostering rising infrastructure costs and property taxes. Urban employment centers and suburban growth centers will forge regional revenue solutions as their common interest emerges. Steady growth will flow up the 1-95 Corridor as southern prosperity expands to the north but urbanization will be localized. Commuting and traffic will continue to grow but, without an early consensus to boost highway spending, congestion will increase. Rural preservation will gain political support, but land posting will become increasingly common. 0 The dominance of the baby boom and the inmigrant population will push income and educational levels higher and will raise the level of trust in government. Resistance to growth and change will erode, but sharp divisions will emerge over access, development, urbanization and land use controls. Policy will be directed toward a real balance between. the economy and the environment; tradeoffs will be rejected in the search for "sustainable growth." Constraints on bureaucratic expansion will ease but government activism will remain a source of political difference; broad rhetoric will be tested against effectiveness and accountability. Elderly entitlements will be expanded; schools will gain status; women will fully participate in public and economic life. In addition to these major trends, others lie parallel to or flow from them. A period of relative calm is coming to Maine, arising in the combination of social stability in the aging population and of 86 prosperity in the continued strength of the restructured state and regional economies; in the more balance r .g.ddevelopment of slowe growth and in the more balanced distribution of opportunity in tight labor Markets. Coincidental with the period of calm and prosperity, aresurgence of the classic suburban lifestyle home and family centered @ is emerging among inmigrants and young adults. These accoutrements of the Fifties, however, will not bring the return of the full-time homemaker as well. Beyond the two incomes that will be needed to sustain a neo.suburban lifestyle, the young mothers of the Nineties will expect the same career achievements as do their husbands, and in the tight labor markets of the future they will get them. Western Maine and The County are off the growth path for this suburban lifestyle; southern Maine, the In95 Corridor and the coast east of Bath are likely to absorb what will come. Despite the, general slowdown in population growth, housing growth will only slow by about half as much. Real estate markets will accordingly experience a correction in the early 1990s, ratcheting down to a more moderate pace of price and volume growth, but the land and housing booms of the 1980s are not yet over. Yet Mainers of all ages and inmigrants as well remain ambivalent about growth management and seem to view existing legislation as an experiment. There is a growing constituency -for rural preservation, but a suspicion that growth management could hold prosperity hostage. If continued development at a slower pace allows towns to meet these two objectives, the "experiment" m, ay be judged a success. Increasing numbers of the very old @ the population over age 80 will double - and the tripling of total household spending on health care - in part from rising costs and in part from the aging of household s@ will keep the medical an geriatric care systems near the top of the political agenda. But ..d this attention and the increased flow of private as well as public money into those systems will help the entire society prepare for the final stage of the baby boom as it grows into advanced age three decades into the coming century. Even though the emerging population over age 80 will be small in comparison to that long term future event, its doubling will strain the'existing system and force investment now and reveal lessons for the future. Similarly, the demand on retirees by labor-hungry employers may, by pioneering the extension of the normal working life, ease the rollback of the retirement age to 70 before the flood of baby boomers begins to draw down pension and Social Security funds. But neither the elderly, nor the mothers of young children, will ease the coming pressure on labor markets in the 1990s. Employers will turn increasingly to productivity enhancement to moderate their need for labor, stimulating technology investment and turning public attention and funding to technology assessment and transfer programs to speed the pace of adoption in a state unused to cap ital-intensive production. The service sector, its rapid growth to dominance force fed on seemingly unlimited labor supplies, will face the challenge of productivity improvement and constraints on labor supplies. For 87 workers, the future holds higher wages and the democratization of jobs and skills, with higher levels of educational attainment the price of admission. At home, those higher wages will be absorbed by already high-priced houses, high-priced cars and high-priced fuel. For the young, health insurance premiums will continue higher-, for the old, direct care will cost more. In an increasingly "uplinked" society, telecommunications costs will rise as well. For the poor, for the elderly and for single parents, who spend the largest shares of their budgets on the necessities of life, the rising costs of traditional and emerging necessities promises new trials. The single elderly are often linked to the world by telephone and risk increasing isolation as their costs of communication rise. The elderly in general and single parents tend to balance their budgets by limiting transportation in quantity or quality and risk increasing loss of mobility when their incomes fall behind the pace of economic expansion. But other necessities - food and clothing - will become cheaper in the future generating needed slack in the budgets of the poor and freeing discretionary income in the budgets of the more prosperous. That new discretionary income will be spent most often on recreation and entertainment, often at home but increasingly in travel. But the emerging travel mode will be concentrated - shorter, more frequent, more intense. Annual vacations are giving way to long seasonal weekends and spending is on the rise. Recreational spending by Maine households will triple through the coming decades, and much of that spending will be committed in their home state. A similar increase will be experienced in the higher income households of neighboring states, but much of that spending will will be brought to Maine. The labor shortages already evident in this service industry will remain a concern but increasing prosperity in the tourism industry may push low wage levels higher to stabilize labor supplies. But the increasing pressure on Maine's roads and resources will keep recreational development high on the public agenda. The Emerging, Opportunity The demographic picture that emerges for the future of Maine is one of a ten to fifteen year period of relative stability in Maine society when compared to the rapid growth period the preceded it and to the period of intensive demands on institutions, programs and services that will follow. T-his period is likely to begin sometime in the mid 1990s and will close around again the year 20 10 when the baby boom begins to reach retirement age. 88 This period of demographic calm is likely to be marked (1) by greater stability in households, reflected in slowerjob and housing turnover and by higher (relative) incomes and assets, (2) by greater stability in society, reflected in lower rates of criminal activity, highway accidents and substance abuse, and (3) by greater availability of leisure time. The economy is likely- to benefit from the greater productivity of more experienced workers; civic life is likely to benefit from higher levels of citizen participation. The period is also likely to be marked by greater balance in overall growth and a broader distribution of economic prosperity. A number of trends come together to support these expectations. 0 A basic trend is the greater diversification of the Maine economy, which produces a much wider range of goods and services today than it did in the past. This means the economy is better able to withstand recessions and is more resilient in the face of catastrophic changes in individual industrial sectors. The Maine economy is also adding value more rapidly and efficiently than it did in the past, bringing a larger share of the national pool of wealth into the state. Finally, the location as well as the content of Maine's economy is becoming more diversified as well. The prosperity that has marked the southern Maine economy since the early 1980s has begun to spread up the 1-95 Corridor to Lewiston-Auburn, Augusta-Waterville and Bangor in the late Eighties as businesses are formed or relocate near the land and labor pools more readily available in these cities. 0 A second basic trend is the contraction in the population of the state between the ages of 18 and 34 - the age group which provides entry level labor for the jobs created by a prosperous economy. This group will decline by 50,000 persons between 1986 and 2010, leading employers to turn increasingly to populations who have been neglected in the past and whom prosperity has consequently passed by. 0 The same group - those 18 to 34 - also form the core market for housing development and the decline in their numbers will amplify the effects of an overall slowdown in population growth in easing the pressure on land use, housing markets and public infrastructures that has so severely unbalanced life in Maine during the 1980s. It is difficult to say whether housing will become more affordable; it is likely that housing will become more available and that development will proceed in the future in a more orderly fashion. 89 In contrast with this period of calm - of social and household stability, relative (and perhaps absolute) prosperity andthe greater balance of steady, moderate growth-thepressure of the young baby boom in the previous era forced disruptive public investment in schools, roads, prisons, police, recreation, welfare, housing, waste disposal and other infrastructure at a rapid and reactive pace, Similarly, the pressure of the elderly baby boom in the subsequent era will trigger a new round of investment in pension fund bailouts, health care facilities, elderly housing, nursing homes and public transit systems at a pace that will be more predictable but no less rapid. The opportunity offered by this demographic window, therefore, is both temporary and critical to the state's ability to plan for the long term and to invest strategically in the human and capital resources that will allow us to get out in front of events and to stay there. This demographic stability is particularly crucial because it -coincides with a period of economic and technological transition as fundamental as the adoption of steam power, railroads, electrification and the automobile. The challenge posed by this transition - to a global economy driven by computerized tools and information at the ins tantaneous speed of telecommunications - will bring sufficient turmoil even to a society that is not overrun by runaway development or burgeoning human needs. 90 REFERENCES Choate, Pat and Linger, JX; The High Flex Society: Shaping America's Economic Future; Knopf, New York, 1986 Colgan, C., Adams, S. and Rose, G.; The Maine Economy: Year EndReview and Outlook, 1988; Maine State Planning Office, Augusta, 1988 Kovenock, David, Northeast Research, Inc.; Working Paper Maine Department of Economic and Community Development; 1980-1987 Changes in Minor Civil Division Housing Stock, Augusta, 1988. Office of Data, Research and Vital Statistics, Maine Department of Human Services; Population Estimatesfor Minor Civil Divisions by County; Augusta, (Annual) Ploch, Louis, A.; Recent Inmigration to Maine: The Who and Where of It.; ARE 369, University of Maine, Orono, 1984 Economic and Occupational Aspects ofRecent Inmigration to Maine;; ARE 37 1, University of Maine, Orono, 1985 Inmigration to Maine: Motivations for Moving, Satisfaction, Participation; Are 370, University of Maine, Orono, 1985 Rickert, Evan, Market Decisions, Inc.; The People of Maine: A Study in Values (2 volumes); Commission on Maine's Futurej Augusta, 1989 Sherwood, Richard A. Population and Growth: Some Misconceptions. Maine 1960 to 1987; State of Maine Economic Report, January; Maine State Planning Office, Augusta, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 986; Projections of the Number of Households and Families 1986 to 2000:; U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 1986 Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1017; Projection of the Population of States by Age, Sex and Race: 1988to 2010:; U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 1988 1980 Census of Population: Detailed Population Characteristics, Maine; U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 1983 U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment; Technology and the American Economic Transition: Choicesfor the Future; OTA-TET-283. U.S. Govemmentll@inting Office, Washington DC, 1988 U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation; Crime in the U.S.; U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 1986 91 The Commission on Maine's Future was established by the Maine Legislature in 1987, to "recommend a desirable and feasible description'of the.state's future," under bipartisian legislation originated by Senate President Charles P. Pray and cosponsored by Speaker of the.. House John L. Martin, Sen. Thomas R. Perkins and Rep. Donnell Carroll. Forty members were appointed by the Governor, President of the Senate and Speaker of the House torepresen.t diverse viewpoints, backgrounds and regions of the state. The Commission's publications. program is one part of a coordinated response to our legislative mandate. Reports in the series explore various aspects of Maine and its future and are intended to provide useful information,, to provoke discussion and disseminate the Commission's findings as broadly as possible to the people of Maine. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study draws substantially on two staff papers by State Dernographerj Richard A. Sherwood of the State Planning Office for the analysis of Maine's age structure and growth patterns. A working paper by David Kovenock of Northeast Research, Inc. provided the substantial basis for the analysis of civic life. Inferences and extensions drawn from their work are those of the author. Steve Adams of the State Planning Officeprovided generous consultation that helped refine the analysis of Maine'schanging economic structure and of future issues in the labor market. Helpful reviews and comments by Dale Welch, Galen Rose, Smokey Payson, Evan Rickert, Denise Lord and Annette Anderson have greatly improved the content and expression of this essay. The appreciation of the Commission on Maine's Future is gratefully extended to Apple Computers, Inc. of Marlboro, Massachusetts and to Harper Computers, Inc. of Portland, Maine, whose assistance has made the production of this publication possible. THE COMMISSION ON MAINE'S FUTURE Annette Ross Anderson, Portland Anthony W. Buxton, Portland Chair Vice Chaii4r Sharon Alcott, Jeffer son Barbara Knox, Farmington Senator John E. Baldacci, Bangor Catherine A. Lee, Cumberland Center Severin Beliveau, Manchester Rep. Carolyne T. Mahany, Easton George Boyce, Auburn Andrea L. Cianchette Maker, Augusta Malcolm V. Buchanan, Brownville Junction James A. Mingo, Millinocket Richard Burges s, Machias Sherry L. Nernmers, Portland Dr. Roland Bums, Fort Kent Edward O'Meara, South Portland Rosemarie Butler, Lewiston Rev. Bradford Payne, Lincolnville James F. Carter, Washburn Senator Michael Pearson, Enfield Mary Ann Chalila, Bangor Senator Thomas Perkins, Blue Hill Rep. Lorraine Chonko, Pejebscot Dr. Hilton Power, Lewiston Eugene L. Churchill, Orlan d Rep. Charles R. Priest, Brunswick Rep. James R. Coles, South Harpswell William Seretta, Yarmouth Dorie Corliss, Dover-Foxcroft Richard H. Silkman, Yarmouth Alexis F. Cote, Saco Wilfred J. Sirois, Scarborough Theodore S. Curtis, Jr., Orono Geraldine Skinner, Richmond Philip D. Granville, Limerick Rep. Donald Strout, East Corinth Senator Judy Kany, Waterville James Wilfong, North Fryeburg Dennis King, Yarmouth Joseph B. McGonigle Executive Director State House Station #38, Augusta, Maine 04333 (207) 289-3261 DATA TABLES TABLE I THE MAINE POPULATION Three Growth Scenarios History and Projections 1950-2010 Census Inmigration Prosperity Scenario Scenario Scenario TOTAL POPULATION 1950 914,000 914,000 914,000 1960, 969,000 969,000 969,000 1970 1,034,000 1,034,000 1,034,000 1980 1,125,000 1,125,000 1,125,000 1990 1,213,000 1,213,000 1,219,000 2000 1,271,000 1,290,000 1,310,000 2010 1,308,000 1,346,000 1,369,000 POPULATION CHANGE 1950-1960 55,000 55,000 55,000 1960,-1970 65,000- 65,000 65,000 1970-1980 91,000 91,000 91,000 1980-1990, 88,000 88,000 94,000 1990-2000 58,000, 77,000 91,000 2000-2010, 37,000 56,000 59,000 GROWTH RATE 19,50- 1960, 6.02% 6.02% 6.02% 1,960-1970 6.71%. 6.71% 6.71% 1970 - 19W 8.80% 8.80% 8.80% 1980,- 1990. 7.82% 7.82% 8.36% 090 - 2000 4.78% 6.35% 7.47% 2000-2010 2.91% 4.34% 4.50% TABLE.2 GROWTH AND MIGRATION History and Projections .1960 - 2010 Census Scenario Declining Inmigration 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 Natural Increase 93,000 56,000 51,000 41,000 20,000 Net Migration -28,000 35,000 37,000 16,000 17,000 Net Change 65,000 91,000 88,000 57,000 37,000 Inmigration Scenario Constant Inmigration 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 Natural Increase 93,000. 56,000 51,000 41,000 20,000 Net Migration -28,000 35,000 37,000 36,000 36,000 Net Change 65,000 91,000 88,000 77,000 56,000 Prosperity Scenario Increasing Inmigration 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 Natural Increase 93,000 56,000 51,000 41,000 20,000 Net Migration -28,000 35,000 43,000 50,000 39,000 Net Change 65,000 91,000 94,000 91,000 59,000 TABLE3 THE MAINE POPULATION BY HOUSEHOLD History and Projections 1960-2010 Census Scenario Total Population Total Persons Population in Households Households per Household 1960 969,000 936,000 280,000 3.34 1980 1,125,000 1,088,000 395,000 2.75 1990 1,213,000 1,173,000 461,000 2.55 2000 1,271,000 1,229,000 519,000 2.37 2010 1,308,000 1,265,000 561,000 2.26 Inmigration Scenario Total Population Total Persons Population in Households Households per Household 1960 969,000 @936,000 280,000 3.34 1980 1,125,000, 1,088,000 395,000 2.75 1990 1,213,000 1,173,000 461,000 2.55 2000 1,290,000 1,247,000 527,000 2.37 2010 1,346,000 1,302,000 577,000 2.26 Prosperity Scenario Total Population Total Persons Population in Households Households per Household 1960, 969,1000 936,000 280,000 3.34 1980 1,125,000 1,088,000 395,000 2.75 1990 1,219,000 1,179,000 463,000 2.55 2000 1,310,000 1,267,000 535,000 2.37 2010 1,369,000 1,324,000 587,000 2.26 TABLE4 HOUSEHOLDS AND HOUSING History and Projections 1960-2010 Census Scenario Housing Total Units per Units Households Household 1960 304,000 280,000 1.0857 1980 427,000 395,000 1.0821 1985 457,000 431,000 1.0603 1986 467,000 434,000 1.0765 1987 477,000 441,000 1.0822 1990 499,000 461,000 1.0822 2000 562,000 519,000 1.0829 2010 607,000 561,000 1.0829 Inmigration Scenario Housing Total Units per Units Households Household 1960 304,000 280,000 1.0857 1980 427,000 395,000 1.0821 1985 457,000 431,000 1.0603 1986 467,000 434,000 1.0765 1987 477,000 441,000 1.0822 1990 499,000 461,000 1.0822 2000 571,000 527,000 1.0829 2010 625,000 577,000 1.0829 Prosperity Scenario Housing Total Units per Units Households Household 1960 304,000 280,000 1.0857 1980 427,000 395,000 1.0821 1985 457,000 431,000 1.0603 1986 467,000 434,000 1.0765 1987 477,000 441,000 1.0822 1990 501,000 463,000 1.0822 2000 579,000 535,000 1.0829 2010 636,000 587,000 1.0829 T kfe 5A Y P OPULATIONS f98G." wfth Piojectfon's to 29-10, 09N'SUg- S,MNAR,10, 11996 1990, i0oo 2010 3450CO, 4330OOr 458009 413000 York. f 4WM,. 00000, 1830OG 193000 alrrib&iEdd 1160OU 21-2000 @43000, 247000 Sa@gaidAW NOW 51000.. 32000i 3'3000! C'mim" 11,40M 234000 251000 264000 korinekc f f 0000, f f 5000. f21000 1,230OG 96 mlldrgdil 45000 4900G- 520W 55000 Liftc, dilf Z60W, 33000 57000, 4,2000 Knox; 330W, 37000r, 41000 44000 E'Asteifn 260" 1150W 289000 300000 Peffobscot 1,31000, 142000, 145000! 147000 Piscataqafs 180M 19000 20000. 22000 28000, 3,1000! 34000 36000 f4dn'ccick 4-2000, 48000' 550OG 61000 walsfifffgtdril 3'5000' 550001 35000, 54000 Watemi f76000, f 9,5000 193000 107000 Andt6w6ggiff- 1.,00060, 10300G 1050OG 1,06000 Qxfdrd, 49000 52000 54000, 56000 Vmnklin, 17000: 300001 34000 55000 q 1'006 96000, 91000 75000 Aroostook 9,1000 86000' 81000 75000 Table 5B COU NTY POPULATIONS 1980 with Projections to 2010 INMIGRATION SCENARIO 1980 1990 2000 2010 Southern 385000 433000 460900 482000 York 140000 170000 184500 .199400 Cumberland 216000 232000 244100 249000 Sagadahoc -29000 31000 32300- 33600 Central 214000 234000 252500 266600 Kennebec 110000 115000 121000 123000 Somerset 45000 49000 52300 55500 Lincoln 26000 33000 37700 43200 Knox 33000 37000 41500 44900 Eastern 260000 275000 290100 303800 Penobscot 137000 142000 145400 147800 Piscataquis 18000 19000 20300 22500 Waldo 28000 31000 34500 36900 Hancock 42000 48000 55900 62600 Washington 35000 35000 34000 34000 Western 176000 185000 193300 197500 Androscoggin 100000 103000 105000 106000 Oxford 49000 @52000 54100 56200 Franklin 27000 30000 34200 35300 Northern 91000 86000 81000 75000 Aroostook 91000 86000 81000 75000 Table 5C COUNTY POPULATIONS 1980 with Projections to 2010 PROSPERITY SCENARIO 1980 1990 2000 2010 Southern 385000 436500 473200 '485800 York 140000 172500 196100 202000 Cumberland 216000 232800 243800 249900 Sagadahoc 29000 31200 33300 3 3900 Central 214000 235100 256500 267800 Kennebec 110000 115000 121000 123000 Somerset 45000 49200 53000 55700 Lincoln 26000 33500 39600 43800 Knox 33000 37400 42900 45300 Eastern 260000 276500 296700 305300 Penobscot 137000 142300 146600 148100 Piscataquis 18000 19200 21000 22700 Waldo 28000 31400 35900 37300 Hancock 42000 48600 58200 63200 Washington 35000 35000 35000 34000 Western 176000 185200 193900 197600 Androscoggin 100000 103000 105000 106000 Oxford 49000 52100 54300 56200 Franklin 27000 30100 34600 35400 Northern 91000 86000 81000 75000 Aroostook 91000 86000 81000 75000 TABLE6A HOUSING GROWTH Total Additions by County 1980 to 2010 Census Scenario History Projection Total 1980-1987 1988-2010 1980-2010 Statewide 49,313 130,013 179,326 Southern 24,122 63,596 87,718 York 11,325 29,861 41,186 Cumberland 10,973 28,925 39,898 Sagadahoc 1,824 4,810 6,634 Central 7,830 20,644 28,474 Kennebec 3,868 10,192 14,060 Somerset 1,024 2,704 3,728 Lincoln 1,472 3,887 5,359 Knox 1,466 3,861 5,327 Eastern 9,795 25,818 35,613. Penobscot 5,631 14,846 20,477 Piscataquis 421 1,105 1,526 Waldo 1,116 2,938 4,054 Hancock 2,020 5,330 7,350 Washington 607 1,599 2,206 Western 5,929 15,639 21,568 Androscoggin 3,032 7,995 11,027 Oxford 1,906 5,031 6,937 Franklin 991 2,613 3,604 Northern 1,637 4,316 5,953 Aroostook 1,637 4,316 5,953 Note: Includes new units only; Includes single, multi-family, manufactured, seasonal and unoccupied units TABLE6B ANNUAL HOUSING GROWTH Annual Additions by County 1980 to 20 10 Census Scenario Annual Rate Annual Rate 1980-1987 1988-2010 Statewide 7,045 5,653 Southern 3,446 2,765 York 1,618 1,298 Cumberland 1,568 1,258 Sagadahoc 261 209 Central 1,119 898 Kennebec 553 443 Somerset 146 118 Lincoln 210 169 Knox 209 168 Eastern 1,399 1,123 Penobscot 804 645 Piscataquis 60 48 Waldo 159 128 Hancock 289 232 Washington 87 70 Western 847 681 Androscoggin 433 348 Oxford 272 219 Franklin 142 114 Northern 234 188 Aroostook 234 188 Note: Includes new units only; Includes single, multi-family, manufactured, seasonal and unoccupied units TABLE7 THE MAINE POPULATION 19$0 400 2000 Ap 1986 1986-2010 2010 QQhort Fqpulanjon Change Population 85 17,000 15,000 32,000 80 r $4 20100Q 5100Q 25,000 75,-79 30,000 21000 32,000 70-,74 40,000 0 40,000 65-69 49,000 7,000 56,000 6' 25--,000 .-Q 64 53M0 781,000 -55 5@9 56,0 00 36,1000 92,000 50 54 53,000 50,000 10,000 45-49 56,000 51,000 107,000 40 @ 4.4 6,9,000 94,000 35 T @9 93,00,0 10,000 83,000 3Q = @4 96,000 -16,000 80,000 W-01,000 82,000 ZQ, T 24 100,000 46,000 84,000 1$ 7 i9l A1000 35,000 15-17 56,000 @2,000 54,000 10@ 14 $2,1000 1,000 $3,000 5- 9 $1,000 -5,000 76,000 Q@ 4 82,000 @q - "000 73,000 To,t4j 1,171,000 138,009 1,308,000 Note,* Co_hort populqti,?m do not, sym to projocted totqj, due to, rounding TABLE8 THE MAINE POPULATION Projected Change 1986-2010 Census Scenario Age .1986 1990 1990 - 1995 1995 - 2000 2000 - 2005 2005 - 2010 Cohort Change Change Change Change Change 85 &+ 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 80-84 1,000 2,000 1,000 2,000 -1,000 75-79 2,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 70-74 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -3,000 1,000 65-69 1,000 -1,000 -4,000 1,000 10,000 60-64 0 -4,000 1,000 10,000 18,000 55-59 -42000 1,000 11,000 19,000 9,000 50-54 2,000 11,000 20,000 9,000 8,000 45-49 11,000 20,000 9,000 8,000 3,000 40-44 19,000 9,000 8,000 4,000 -15,000 35-39 4,000 8,000 4,000 -15,000 -11,000 30-34 7,000 5,000 -15,000 -11,000 -2,000 25-29 4,000 -15,000 -11,000 -2,000 6,000 20-24 -12,000 -11,000 -2,000 62000 32000 18-19 -22000 -5,000 3,000 1,000 0 15-17 -9,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 -3,000 10-14 1,000 6,000 4,000 -4,000 -6,000 5- 9 5,000 4,000 -3,000 -7,000 -4,000 0- 4 5,000 -3,000 -4,000 -4,000 1,000 Total Change 42,000 35,000 24,000 19,000 18,000 TAIBLF 9A MAINE HOWHOLIDS jg()ry 4nd P-t9jections 19$0 4nd 2005 19$0 2005 Housthold Number- of Number of Typt HQY450914 lip psgholds 45,V,6, 60,439 M34 19,46-5 18',,880 35-0@ 25?761 41,550 Fid-prly 87,jZj 121,400 single, 48,648 -67,950 CQUPIO 38,473 53,450 Cqqple U4,572 2$$,610 Np cbildflm 66,293 93,760 -6,743 60,750 P*,sph oWT 5 - 2 childro 74,155 103,150 Chlildreep >,17 17,381, - 27,950 Wgig Pgwgint O,M 53,550 TABLE 9B MAINE HOUSEH.OLDS Structure History and Projections 1980 and 2005 1980 2005 Percent Percent Household of all of all Type Households Households Single 11.6% 11.3% .15-34 5.0% 3.5% 35-64 6.6% 7.8% Elderly .22.3% 22.8% Single 12.5% 12.7% Couples 9.9% 10.0% Couples 54.9% 53.6% No Children 17.0% 17.6% Preschoolers 14.5% 11.4% K- 12 Children 19.0% 19.3% Children >17 4.5% 5.2% Single Parent 11.2% 10.0% TABLE9C MAINE HOUSEHOLDS Income i-iistory and Projections 1980 and 2005 1980 2005 Average Average Household Disposable Disposable Type Income Income Single 9,702 16,924 15-34 9,476 16,450 35-64 9,872 17,140 Elderly 1%382 18,018 Single 8,500 14,760 Couples 12,762 22,160 Couples 20,347 35,718 No Children 22,275 38,675 Preschoolers 17,334 30,100 K- 12 Children 20,517 35,620 Children > 17 22,099 39,370 Single Parent 11,541 20,040 3 6668 14102 7252