[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
Q Coastal Zone Information 'N "-E-- ;,"' P!, Mn MAI L 97.- 3ti-ASTAL201TE FORMATI ON CWER nd, ae& IOD L -61 W, P- PF ILIP, 4& SAVAGE Ot f fm@-. T,+ tor G' T", 12" g. -A ------ A V.- I C 1 tA 'J"3 D,10 A -4 7, @w LEGEND 0 Major Growth Areas Minor Growth Areas HB 3525 m2 f A55 102 MAP 5 NUMERICAL SEASONAL M4 POPULATION INCREASE 1970 "'Estimated peak day 77 seasonal population increment .. . .......... . ........... . ..... ... . -, N-P'l r7 7 0 C Legend -.7 0 to 499 500 to 999 MAINE STATE PLANNING OFFICE 1,000 to 1,999 Pit Plantation T to To hip T '2Rp T,,nsh 2 Z..@gs a3 2,000 to 2,999 T27 M.D. Township 27 Middle Di,i,,o, E.D. Eastern Division 3,000 to 3,999 M.D. . Middle Division . . .. . .. No, ba,n Division D, Southern Division 4,000 and over Unorganizel Townships are shown by the Division of any of the follow, ng: - TwP - T2R3 - Gore - T27 M.D. - Grant - Patent - Strip Surplus - WELS - BKPWKR - NBPP - NWP. Unorganized Territory SOURCE: Maine State Planning Office J5 data block areas'l Scale of Miles MAINE POPULATION TRENDS 1960 - 1970 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA COASTAL SERVICES CENTER 2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE CHARLESTON, SC 29405-2413 Printed under appropriation #4248 this report was published by the State Planning Office financed in Property of csc LibrarY part through a comprehensive plan- ning grant from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Introduction ..................................................... I State Population Trends and Military Base Employment ................ 3 Population Gains and Losses in Maine Cities and Towns, 1960-1970 ...... 6 State of Maine Population Clusters, 1960 and 1970 .................... 12 Seasonal Population Increase ....................................... 14 Population Gains and Losses By Age and Sex Groups, 1960-1970 .......... 16 Appendix ........................................................ 25 MAPS Map 1 Numerical Population Change, 1960-1970 ..................... 8 Map 2 Percent Population Change, 1960 - 1970 ....................... 9 Map 3 Population Density, 1950 .................................... 10 Map 4 Population Density, 1970 .................................... 11 Map 5 Numerical Seasonal Population Increase, 1970 ................. 15 Map 6 Official Planning and Development Districts .................. 23 FIGURES Figure I Planning and Development District Population Change in 0 to 4 Age Group .................................... 20 Figure 2 Planning and Development District Population Change in 5 to 14 Age Group ................................... 20 Figure 3 Planning and Development DistHct Population Change i n 15 to 24 Age Group .................................. 21 Fi gu re 4Planning and Development District Population Change in 25 to 44 Age Group .................................. 21 Figure 5 Planning and Development District Population Change in. 45 to 64 Age Group .................................. 22 Figure 6 Planning and Development District Population Change in 65 and Over Age Group ............................... 22 TABLES Table I Lost Jobs and Dependents Due to Phase-Out and Phase-Down of Major Military Bases in Maine, 1960 - 1970 ................. 5 Table 2 Maine Population Cluster Numerical Change, 1960 - 1972 ........ 13 Tables 3 to 12 Appendix (Individual Population Clusters Shown) ........... 25 71 INTRODUCTION The front cover to this report of Maine's population trends shows where the State's major population growth occurred between 1960 and 1970. Note that the southwestern part of Maine experienced the greatest growth in population between 1960 and 1970. Almost 70% of the State's population now resides in the area covered by the Southern Maine, Cumberland, Mid Coastal, Androscoggin and Kennebec Districts in 1970 as shown on Map 6 in this report. The northwest,north and eastern parts of the State generally lost population. The purpose of this report is to show graphically which cities, towns and unor- ganized areas gained or lost population between 1960 and 1970'. Clusters of cities and towns with 100 persons per square mile, with over 15,000 population are also examined to see if they gained or lost population during this period. An estimate of Maine's seasonal population increment to Maine's 1970 permanent population base is also given in this report. Map 5, shows the numerical seasonal population increase based on the capacity of the facilities available in each city or town to serve the seasonal population on the peak day of the year. Of interest to agencies providing facilities and services to various segments of the population is the section of this report that graphically identifies the growth or loss of population by age and sex groups for each of the Planning and Develop- ment Districts as shown on Map 6. Whether Maine's margin of growth experienced over the past three decades will continue to decline cannot be answered at this time. However, the painful readjustment from a wartime economy to a peaceful one with the resulting loss of military personnel, their dependents and dependent civilian service jobs has largely taken place. The Bangor area has shown an increase in civilian jobs, but of insufficient number to offset the military and civilian jobs lost when the Dow Air Force Base closed down. If Bangor is indicative of Maine's future, the state may grow by greater numbers than it did during the last decade. At the national level, birthrates are continuing their downward trend with the Bureau of the Census reporting the smallest birthrate in history. Though national birthrates are low, there still will be more women of child bearing age to bear children during the 1970's than in the 60's. More children may therefore be born during this period than in the 60's result- ing in a national baby boom. This national trend can also be observed in Maine where the greatest numerical population increase occurred in the 15 to 24 age group between 1960 and 1970. However, without jobs these young people will migrate out of the State to areas where they can find employment, marry and raise their families. For Maine, the greatest population unknown is migration. Maine has not created sufficient new jobs to employ al I those born in the State. The result has been a large outflow of Maine's youth to other parts of the United States. The number, characteristics and location of Maine's future inhabitants wil I depend on the type and number of jobs created and where these jobs are located. However, this may not be generally applicable to the growing number of women over 65 living in Maine who are not as dependent on employment as members of the younger working age groups. - I - The data obtained for this report came mainly from the 1960 and 1970 Census of Population. However, we wish to thank Mr. Vance E. Dearborn, Public Affairs Specialist of the Cooperative Extension Service at Orono, for the use of his datagiving percent of population change by city and town for Maine municipal i ties, that he compiled from 1960 and 1970 Census figures. We also wish to thank Mr. Carl Silsby of the Department of Commerce and Industry for the data he gave us so that Map 4, the 1970 Population Density Map, could be drafted. Maine's population growth grew at a slower pace during the 60's than during the prior two decades. There are undoubtedly those who would like to see Maine's population grow at a faster pace. On the other hand, there are those who would like Maine to lose population and thus place less of a strain on its resources. A desirable population policy may lie somewhere between these two extremes. The slow population growth experienced by the State between 1960 and 1970 has given many communities a chance to take stock of their assets and liabilities and to begin to plan for future change. People are also concentrating in the so called "Edge" areas: Those areas where land and water meet, our coast line, our lakes and ponds, rivers and streams. This trend creates great present and future need for control of our shoreline areas to protect these environmentally sensitive areas from massive degredation and pollution. Philip M. Savage State Planning Director 2 - Nag CF1 MAJOR RIVER BASINS & OFFICIAL PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT DISTRICTS 2@-M 04)M"' A 71 RIVER BASIN AND RIV LEGEND SACO BASI CM Area of Difference Between River Basin and Planning and RIVER BASIN Development District Boundaries Official Planning and 1@ o@, Development District Boundaries SALMON RIVER I USAM RIVER BASIN LEGEND COUNTY BOUNDARIES AND OFFIC IAL PLANN I N G AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICTS 1z 71 ME- 3. Mr. . ..... .. T: .. .. . .. .... . ......... . ......... -z LEGEND 0 G . [it 0 Area of Difference . F Between County Boundaries and Planning and 0 Development District Boundaries Official Planning and Development District LEGEND Boundaries ... .... ... A.io4!,j.ioi PezIuDO-joun C3 SuOl.40luDid IM CIN35 I I Od H Al no uo!4iipsijnf- 6ui 33MAO UUDld U01551UAUOD ONINNVId 31VIS 3NIVW IDIIIISIC 3NIVW UoL poinSea esnpunioulow . ... ... UOISS!tuuJOD 6uluuOld PuO.16011 '3d IJ SiN3WH3AOD 10 IM016' aNVIIHOd V iDIIIISla aNVII1.3 solialcl uiqi!A% seijr3punog uoi43ipsijnr UO!SqtUtUO3j Su!uu Did IWO.160t S431.14sl(] lo .1... v jusuidoleAeCi PuD 6uluuOld 77" 3 d H AiNnOO N so it AIR dt. liv 9( 7 -6r, "YA Z",35, "'.-A A, 77 77- AC mg A 4 V 'a F 7 7 AM yi X, @:m I v A @,L ILU HOMAN w S313N39V ONINNVld ISN MUM jiaql pup SIO IHIS I g L dOl3A30PUB 9NINNVId IVIOIJJO STATE POPULATION TRENDS AND MILITARY BASE EMPLOYMENT Since 1940, Maine's population has been growing at a decreasing rate adding fewer persons each decade to a larger population base. Between 1940 and 1950, Maine's population grew by approximately 67,000 people for an increase of 7.9% of the 1940 population base. I During the 1950 to 1960 decade, Maine's population grew by 55,491 for a smaller increase than for the previous decade. In this decade, Maine's population in creased by 6.1%. 2 Between 1960 and 1970, Maine's population grew by an even smaller amount, 24,398, or slightly over one half as much as it did in the 1950 - 1960 decade. This constituted a 2.5% growth in population between 1960 and 1970. 3 If this trend were to continue, Maine would show a loss of population when the 1980 Census is taken. This decreasing margin of net population growth has raised concern among those who believe that this trend reflects a deterioration of Maine's capability to attract people and to keep those who already live in Maine. However, it should be emphasized that during the lost 12 years the State lost approximately 10,500 military and civilian jobs due to the phasing out of three Air Force bases and the reduction of personnel in several others.4 In addition., an estimated 11,000 military dependents moved out of the State to new assignments with the military personnel.5 The rounded total of an estimated 21,500 persons lost to the State due to the closing or phasing down of military installations during the last 12 year period does not reflect the total population exodus from the State.6 To obtain a true picture of the effect this federal action had on the State,one would have to calculate the number of service jobs lost, add the estimated number of dependents dependent on service jobs and add this total to the estimated 21,500. No attempt is made in'this report to estimate the number of service employees and their dependents affected by the reduction in federal jobs. Even though such an estimate is not made, it is fairly obvious that the loss of federal jobs not only reduced the growth in numbers of people living in the State, but also adversely affected the State's economy. Undoubtedly, new civilian jobs have softened the impact of loss of federal employment. If this had not occurred, the city of Bangor would have lost a much larger population than it did between 1960 and 1970 when it lost 5,744 persons.7 Nevertheless, the loss of federal jobs and military dependents attributed to the phase-out and phase down of military bases in the State during the 1960 - 1972 period has left its mark on the State. This co 'uld partially explain why the State's population grew at a much slower pace during the 1960 - 1970 decade than it did during the prior 1950 - 1960 decade. I . Page 9, The Maine Handbook, A Statistical Abstract, 1968. 2. Ibid. 3. Table 9, Number of Inhabitants, Maine, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1970. 4. See Table 1 on Page 5 of this report. 5. Ibid. 6. Ibid. 7. Table 10, Number of Inhabitants, Maine, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, 1970. - 3- The severe re-adjustment to a peacetime economy has largely taken place though 10,308 persons were still employed by the armed forces in Maine in 1970. 1 Approximately 7,000 of these armed service personnel were employed at the Brunswick Naval Air Station in Brunswick and at the Loring Air Force Base at Limestone which constituted the largest concentration of armed personnel in the State.2 As noted in Table 1, the Loring Air Force Base will lose 403 military and 7 civilian jobs due to the phase-out of the 83rd Fighter Squadron in 1972. This will reduce the base population to 600 federal civilian and 5,000 military jobs and 4,000 dependents.3 At.the same time, the Brunswick Naval Air Station has increased its personnel from 1,993 military and 432 civilian jobs in 1970 to a higher figure in 1972 due to its designation as the anti-submarine warfare center for the North Atlantic. 4 This increase has undoubtedly more than compensated for the loss of civilian and military jobs lost at Loring during 1972. The Portsmouth Naval Shipyard at Kittery employs approximately 5,500 civilians who are primarily concerned with the maintenance and repair of naval ships. 5 On the base is located a naval prison and a large naval hospital which may employ another 400 people. During World War 11, 22,000 workers were employed at this base. Except for the Korean W 'or when 10,000 to 11,000 employees were employed here, the number of jobs have decreased to the point where some people in York County predict that the base may be phased out some time in the not too distant future. If this occurs, 5,500 civilian jobs will be affected. As there are only a few naval personnel on the base, not many military jobs would be lost. Approximately 38% of the civilians that work on the base live in Maine. 6 Though the adjustment to a peacetime economy has largely taken place, some changes in federal employment will come in the immediate years ahead. If the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard at Kittery is phased-out or phased-down, the economic impact would be shared by New Hampshire and Maine. It would also take place in an area in which ci 'vilion employment appears to be growing at a faster rate than the rest of the State. On the other hand, if,the Loring Air Force Base at Limestone is phased-out, the loss of jobs would be a severe blow to the economy of that remote part of the State. The result might be an even greater exodus of people from Aroostook County than experienced between 1960 and 1970. 1 . Table 46, General Social and Economic Characteristics, Maine, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1970. 2. Loring Air Force Base Information Officer (498-2506) 3. Ibid. 4. Mrs. Gagnon, Civilian Personnel Department, Brunswick Naval Air Station (921-2403) 5. Mr. R. H. Todd, Director, Employment Division, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard at Kittery (439-1000 Ext: 745) 6. Ibid. -4- S. P.O. TABLE I May 19, 1972 LOST JOBS AND DEPENDENTS DUE TO- PFtASE-OUT AND PHASE-DOWN OF MAJOR MILITARY BASES IN MAINE 1960 1972 MILITARY CIVILIAN MILITARY YEAR NAME OF BASE JOBS JOBS DEPENDENTS TOTAL (1) (2) (2) (5) 1961 Presque Isle Air Force Base I It 200 275 2,160 3,635 (2) (2) (2) 1968 Dow Air Force Base 4,530 700 81100 13,330 (3) 1968 - 1972 Portsmouth Naval Shipyard 2,900 2,900 at Kittery (2) (2) (5) 1969 Sage Air Force Base 400 600 400 860 (4) (4) (5) 1972 Loring Air Force Base 403 7 330 740 TOTALS 6,533 3,942 10,990 21,465 Sources: (1) Date Military Base Closed, Maine Employment Security Agency- (2) Maine Employment Security Agency, Augusta (3) R.H. Todd, Director, Employment Division Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (439-1000 Ext: 745) (4) Loring Air Force Base Information Officer (498-2506) (5) Estimates made by State Planning Office based on known ratios of military to number of dependents on other bases. POPULATION GAINS AND LOSSES IN MAINE CITIES AND TOWNS 1960- 1970 Maine's population increased by 24,398 between 1960 and 1970. This net increase in population resulted in the difference between a gross gain of 72,424 registered by those towns and cities that gained population, and a gross loss of 48,026 registered by those that lost, population. Over 42% of this gross loss occurred as a result of tHe combined population loss of Portland, Bangor, Caribou, Presque Isle, Fort Fairfield and Limestone. Nearly 34% of the gain occurred in those towns shown on Map I as increasing by 601 persons or more. Most of these growth towns are located in the southwestern part of Maine, in York and Cumberland Counties. In addition, Map I shows a major corridor of growth extending from Maine's southern border in York County to Pittsfield in Somerset County. Three prongs of the growth corridor extend into Maine. One prong, including Fryeburg, Bridgton and Naples, extends into Oxford and Cumberland counties. The second prong extends to include Madison and Norridgewock in Somerset County. A third prong of the growth Corridor spreads out to include Pittsfield in Somerset County, Clinton and Unity in Kennebec and Waldo Counties respectively. A small corridor of growth is found on both sides of the Penobscot River from Medford and Old Town in the north in Penobscot County to Bucksport in the south in Hancock Coun ty. Between the more intensive growth areas there is a broad expanse of towns that grew in popu- lation between 1960 and 1970 but not by as much as the corridor towns. Though some of these towns did not add as many people as the corridor towns, the impact of population growth could have been just as great to them as to the corridor towns because of arsmaller population base. Within the southern growth corridor, the older urban centers have lost population to the more rural towns. Portland lost population to the immediate towns and cities surrounding it and to the more distant towns surrounding a part of Sebago Lake. Auburn and New Glouces- ter lost population probably to the benefit of surrounding less populated towns. Waterville' lost population to Winslow further exemplifying the trend that is going on in the nation of the move away from the old urban centers to the suburbs. This same population distribution trend is observed in the Bangor growth corridor in which the city lost population while. the towns@ surrounding it grew in size. Map I also shows those towns that, lost population between 1960 and 1970. A quick glance at the Map will show that.the relatively unpopulated areas lost population as well as the older urban centers. Lubec in Washington County, a high unemployment area, showed a decrease in population perhaps reflecting One solution to the unemployment problem -migration from the area. Similarly, Presque Isle, Caribou, Fort Fairfield and Limestone experienced a decline in population due to problems of high unemployment. Generally, Map I shows the southern and southwestern part of the State growing in population while the northern, eastern and woutheastern parts of the State are losing population. -6- Map 2 primarily shows the impact of population change on individual cities and towns. The percent of population increase or decrease on an existing town's population base, indicates the impact that population change will have on the town's tax base and the service the town must provide. For example, the gain or loss of 25 persons'in a town with a population of 100 people could, perhaps, be as much 'of a strain on its resources as a gain-or loss of 2,500 people to a city with a population base of 10,000. The perceint of change shown on Map 2 generally parallels the pattern of numerical change shown on Map I . The southern and Bangor growth corridors can be identified on both maps. However, a few rural towns.south of Rangeley in parts of Franklin and Oxford counties exhibit similar characteristics. Note that the northern, eastern and southeastern parts of the State show the greatest percent of population loss which is similar to the pattern of numerical loss. Because Census of Population data obtained from the 1970 Census has been summarized for unorganized territory into data block areas, these areas have been used to show percent of change. The data therefore applies to the whole block area, not to each unorganized town shown within the block lines. Maps 3 and 4 show cities and towns of over 100 persons per square mile. Additional categories show lower population densities per square mile. At first glance, the two maps, which compare 1950 and 1970 densities of population, do not appear to differ a great deal. The pattern of those cities and towns with 100 persons or more per square mile still show the cluster of more densely developed towns in northern Aroostook County and around the fertile farming triangle of Presque@ Isle, Caribou and Limestone in the central part of that County. The frontier towns of Calais, Eastport and Lubec facing Canada across the St. Croix River and Passamaquoddy Bay for the same density of population pattern as before. The towns and cities spotted along the coast from St. George in Knox County and along the Penobscot Mver, to include Old Town, show evidence of the importance the bay and the river has had on their development, and also show a density of population pattern in. 1970 similar to that in 1950. The strip of cities and towns dotted along the Kennebec River from Skowhegan to Gardiner also form a pattern of cities and towns over 100 persons per square mile in 1970 similar to that in 1950. Lewiston, Auburn and Lisbon have not changed either. However, population growth in the southern part of the State has created a nearly continuous line of cities and towns with a population density of more than 100 persons per square mile extending from Kittery in York County to Topsham in Sagadahoc County. In 1950, fewer towns along the southern Maine coast contained a population density of over 100 persons per square mile. Particularly west and north of Portland, the population growth since 1950 has created minor civil division population densities over 100 persons per square mile. This fi I I ing-in -process has created a band of higher population density along the southern Maine coast that anyone can experience by travel I ing along U. S. Route 1 that passes through most of these communities. If this trend continues, this densely developed line of cities and towns could link up with the strip of urban development along the Kennebec River. Interstate 95, that will soon link Portland to Gardiner and Augusta,' will undoubted.ly encourage urban development along the roads leading to the Interstate interchanges. -7- MAP I NU MERICAL POPULATION A CHANGE 1960-1970 . . .... .. law J-Ev, A ... ....... .... . ........ :M N" _T 5_1 wm" 7 -7 ... Mv, Ar. ELL 77@ 7@A -@ .......... V@ v,; .. .... . ....... Legend 0 INCREASE DECREASE *7 No Change t 1 to 200 0 MAINE STATE PLANNING OFFICE 201 to 400 Pit, . . Plantation 401* to 600 T.P. To-ship T2R3 T-Inship 2 Range 3 T27 M Township 27 Middle Division 601 to 800 E.D.. . . .. . . Eastern Division M.D. Middle Division 801 and over N.D., Northern Division S.D. Southern Division Unorgani@d Townships ,a shown by the Division of any of the SOURCE: U. S. Census of following: - Two - T2R3 - Gore - T27 M.D. @ Grant - Patent - Strip Unorganized Territory Population and Surplus - WELS - BKPWKR - NBPP - NWP. data block areas Housing Scale at Miles 8- N E w A m I R CA 0 0 m CL b a. ma 'j Z. Z' gE @z g 0 3 3 Ma RE N E W 8 R U N S W 0) -L C 0) 0 CL = o a) 0 -1 01 (.0 CL Lr, 0 cr 0 X CL V r* 0 cn m N E w H A m p s H I R E 57 0 CD 99a; ft 0 7' 7v N EW R U N S W IV. r 0 0 (D (D -1 CO) (D 0 0 CO) U) CL 0. 0 0 MAP 4 POPULATION DENSITY 1970 '!T "4T 414*1 ..... ... . ... ....... ... ... .. P 1 5 CATA Q U A 3@ 0 fe, 7 0 Legend (persons per sq. mi.) a MAINE STATE PLANNING OFFICE Pit. ...... . .. .... .... . .. .. Plantation Less than 10 T p . Tow, . Township TR3 nship 2 Range 3 10 to 49 T27 M.D. . Township 27 Middle Division E.D ........ ...... Eastern D:v n M.D . . .... . .... Middle D on 50 to 100 NA. .. .. . ..... Whern Division SOURCE: Maine Dept. of S.D., ,.... ..... . .. . .... Southern Division More than 100 Unorganized Townships the Shown by the Division of any of the Economic following: - TwP - T2R3 - Gore - T27 M.D. - Grant - Patent - Strip Surplus - WELS @ BKPWKR-NBP -NVVP. Development 5 10 15 20 25 Scale of Miles . STATE OF MAINE POPULATION CLUSTERS 1960 and 1970 Another way of viewing population changes in the State of Maine, in addition to comparing percent and numerical changes between 1960 and 1970 by town, is to cluster urban areas together to see how their combined population has changed during the decade. Table I shows how cities and towns have been clustered in order to make comparisons. Map 4, preceeding this section, shows clusters of cities and towns with over 100 persons per square mile. Abutting towns and cities meeting this density within State Planning and Development District boundaries have been clustered together to form a population base of at least 15,000 based on 1970 census figures. Nearly half of the State's population lived in these urban clusters in 1970. A quick review of Table 1 reveals very little net population growth in the total urban cluster population. In fact, its total grew by only, .9 of one percent for a numerical gain of 4,391 between 1960 and 1970. However, some urban clusters grew more than others. The South Berwick-York-Kittery and the Biddeford- Saco-Old Orchard clusters located in southern Maine grew by 9.8% and 7.9% respectively. Sanford also increased by 5.7%. As stated previously, areas with 100 or more persons per square mile did not contribute significantly as a whole to the State's population growth between 1960 and 1970. A brief look at Map I will show that new population is spread over a broad area of the southern part of Maine, extending roughly from Kittery in York County to include Pittsfield in Somerset County. Widespread population growth also occurred around Bangor extending from Bucksport in Hancock County to include Lincoln in Penobscot County. For further information concerning population changes in the 10 urban clusters in Maine, please turn to the Appendix of this report to find Tables 3 through 12 where population gains and losses experienced by individual towns in each of these clusters may be found. See Map 6 for designation of Planning and Development District boundaries. 12 TABLE 2 MAINE POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGE 1960- 1970 1970 1960 to 1970 CLUSTER Population CHANGE Number Percent Portland SMSA 141,625 +2,503 +1.8 Lewiston-Auburn SMSA 72,474 +2,179 +3.1 Bangor-Old Town-Brewer 65,772 -3,009 -4.4 Freeport- Brun swi ck- Bath 381229 +1,810 +5.0 Augusta- Gardiner 37,703 + 399 +1. 1 Biddeford- Saco-O Id Orchard 37,065 +21715 +7.9 Caribou- Limestone- Presque Isle 32,231 -6,221 -16.1 Oak land-Watervi I le-Winslow 29,026 +1,059 +3.8 South Berwick -York -K i ttery 23,703 +2,106 +9.8 Sanford 15,812 + 850 +5.7 TOTALS: 493,640 +4,391 + .9 State Population 993,663 Cluster Population 49.6% Of State Population Source: Number of Inhabitants, 1970 Census of Population (PC (I)-A21) issued April, 1971 by the Bureau of the Census. *Note: Clusters are defined as contiguous cities and towns with a population density of 100 persons per square mile or more. See Map 4, Population Density, 1970. 13 - SEASONAL POPULATION INCREASE During the early part of 1972, an estimate of possible peak seasonal population was made for the State Planning Office. Based on increments of population served by seasonal homes and transient facilities, a peak estimate of population was calculated for the peak day in 1970. Map 5 shows graphically an estimate of summer population added to the permanent population base in order to identify seasonal impact towns. A quick glance at this map shows the greatest impact of seasonal home residents a'nd transients fall on the coastal towns from York to Portland and on those towns around the southern and eastern side of Sebago Lake. Boothbay Harbor and Bar Harbor on Maine's coast also attract thousands of tourists each summer. Though Bangor, Waterville, Augusta, Portland and other large urban centers also cater to the tourists, the summer population influx does not create as great an impact on them as that felt by those towns with a smaller permanent population base. As will be noted, over 4,000 persons journeyed to northern Piscataquis County to visit Baxter State Park and adjoining wild lands in this large and undeveloped area. Only a portion of this area, however, is heavily utilized by the seasonal population. The large block, shown on Map 5, was identified as a seasonal impact area due to a lack of information for a smaller area. In another part of the State, large numbers of seasonal homes and transient facilities, used primarily in the winter time, make Rangeley a seasonal impact town. A brief review of Map 5 in this report identifies sout hern Maine as the State's growth area for seasonal as well as permanent population growth in spite of the population loss experienced by the City of Portland. This population growth is due to the close proximity of southern Maine to Boston. Kittery is only 57 miles from Boston and growth radiating out from Boston is now begining to spill over into Maine. As a result of this trend, more persons are living in northern New England which places them within an easy two hours driving time of most communities in southern Maine. 14- WAP 5 u --Ik 'St . . . . ..... NUMERICAL SEASONAL POPULATION INCREASE 1970 .... .... ... Of 'Estimated peak day seasonal population increment 4, ZVI .......... . . .. ... ...... .. ....... . %7. ,Z . ...... 7 R 0 Legend 0 0 to 499 0 500 to 999 MAINE STATE PLANNING OFFICE 1,000 to 1,999 pit. Plantation T.p Township T2R3 Township 2 Range 3 2,000 to 2,999 T27 M.D. . Township 27 Middle Division E.D. . East.,. Division 3,000 to 3,999 M.D. Middl.Division N.D.. .. .... Northern Division 4,000 and over S.D . .. . .. . Southern Division 1.1no,gani d To n by he Division of any o the Twp!nshlps are show 27 tall ing: T2R3 - Go. - T M.D. - Grant - Patent - Strip Surplus - WELS - BKPWKR - NBPP - NVVP. Unorganized Te ry, SOURCE: Maine State rrito Planning Office 1 10 15 20 11 data block areas Scaleal mile. 15 POPULATION GAINS AND LOSSES BY AGE AND SEX GROUPS 1960- 1970 Numerical gains and losses by various segments of the population are important to know in planning service facilities and utilities for the population. A detailed breakdown of population into various sex and age groups is necessary, for example, in planning schools and other facilities to serve the youth of Maine. A knowledge of the trend in which particular age and sex groups are changing is desirable if state, regional and local facilities and utilities are to be built to serve particular age group needs in the future. At the time this report was written, 1960 population characteristics were not avail- able by 5 year age categories that could be used to compare, in more detail, changes in population age groups between 1960 and 1970. However, 1960 and 1970 population data by age and sex groups has been assembled into larger categories covering significant periods of an individual's life: The 0 - 4 age group consists of infants and preschool children. The 5 - 14 age group covers grammar school and most of the junior high school children. The 15 - 24 age group is comprised of high school and college age students and early entrants into the work force. The 25 - 44 age group -consists of persons in the process of establishing their careers. The 45 - 64 age group consists of those who are completing their work careers. The 65 and over age group is composed of those who have retired from ful I time jobs and who are now pursuing part time activities. The population trends of these groups is shown graphically in Figures I through 6 that may be found at the end of the following explanatory material. Map 6 may be found here also. This Map identifies the various Planning and Development Districts in which population, age and sex group characteristics are summarized. 0 - 4 Age Group A quick look at Figure 1 will show a decline in numbers of males and females in this age group throughout the State. This decline in numbers was particularly felt in the Penobscot District where this age group suffered the greatest numerical loss in the State. The decline in numbers of this group has given it a smaller proportional share of the total population than in 1960. This resulting decline in impact on elementary schools may continue during the next 6 years provided birth rates continue their present downward trend and families with children of this age group do not migrate into the State in wholesale numbers. The statewide trend between 1960 and 1970 shows the 0 - 4 age group decl inging from 11. 2% of the State's popula- tion to only 8.6% for a proportional loss of 2.6%. Nationwide, this age group declined by an even greater proportional amount sliding from 11.3% to 8.4% for a loss of 2.9%. - 16- 5 -_14 Age Group The 5 - 14 age group gained in population in most of the State's Planning and Development Districts between 1960 and 1970. Figure 2 will also show exceptions to this general rule in the Cumberland and Northern Maine Districts where this group decreased in number. In the, Cumberland District, the numerical decrease resulted in a proportional decline from 19. 1 % to 16.8% of the total population. Because other age groups decreased at a faster rate, the 5 - 14 segment of the total Northern Maine District population remained at approximately the same proportion of total population in spite of its loss in population. By far, the greatest numerical gain in population in this age group occurred in the Kennebec District where over 2,000 additional males were added to that District's population during the 1960-1970 decade. However, the Statewide trend of this age category remained fairly stable. It grew at a slightly slower numerical pace than the rest of the population for a proportional loss of only . I of one percent. This trend nearly parallels the United States trend in which the 5 - 13 age group experienced a .2 of one percent proportional decline during the last decade. The slight difference in trend lines could be accounted for by the year's difference between the federal and the State's age group. This trend may tell us that the elementary-junior high age group may, as it ages during the next decade, add fewer youth to the 15 - 24 age group than that group loses to the 25 - 44 age group. If this occurs, our high schools and colleges may not be as crowded as they are now, provided wholesale immigration of persons of this age group into the State does not occur during this period. 15 - 24 Age Group Large statewide gains in this high school-college age group were recorded in the 1960 - 1970 decade reflecting the high birth rates that occurred between 1948 and 1957. Numerical gains for this group can be identified in Figure 3 for each of the Districts with the exception of the loss in males in the Northern Maine District. The Department of Commerce and Industry has repeatedly emphasized the need for additional job opportunities to provide employment for the State's youth that would like to work in Maine. The, urgency of providing additional jobs for those wishing to enter the State's work force is borne out by the comparatively large numerical increase of this age group between 1960 and 1970. Undoubtedly, a large proportion of this age group may be found in high school, vocational, college, or graduate schools. However, others are either employed or unemployed. As this age group ages, many wil I seek employment in the State or migrate out of the State to find employment in other parts of the United States as their forefathers have done in the past. 17- 15 - 24 Age Group (Cont'd) Due to the numerical increase in the size of this age group, it has increased its proportional share of total State population by 3%. The proportional share of this group in total United States population has grown by an even greater amount, 4.4%. This means that many more persons will be seeking jobs than during the past decade, through- out the United States. This raises a challenge to the federal and State governments to create the environment in which the growth of jobs will exceed that of demand. The 15 - 24 age group proportion of total State population increased from 13.8% to 16.8% during the last decade for the most significant proportional increase of any of the age categories discussed in this report. This increase also means that more women of a child bearing age will be available to bear children. If they marry and settle in Maine, the State could experience a significant increase in number of babies born compared to the last decade in spite of a lower birth rate. 25 - 44 Age Group In nearly every Planning and Development District, this population age group declined numerically between 1960 and 1970 (See Figure 4). In only the Southern Maine District did the number of males and females increase slightly while in the Kennebec District the males also increased during this decade. Northern Maine evidenced the greatest numerical decrease of this important work force group in the State. The Andros- coggin and Cumberland Districts held their own numerically but their proportion of total District population in this category declined indicating growth in the other age categories of their population. It should be noted too that the proportion of total population in this age group declined in each of the Districts during the 1960 - 1970 decade. This created a Statewide proportional loss in this category of 2. 1% resulting in a State proportional decline from 24. 2% to 22. 1%. The United States trend showed an even greater proportion- al loss for this age group than Maine did by decreasing from 26.2% to 23.7%. 45 - 64 Age Group In contrast with the 25 - 44 age group, the 45 - 64 year olds increased in number in nearly every District (See Figure 5). Only in Androscoggin and Eastern Maine Districts did the number of males in this category decrease. In the Southern Maine District, the number of females increased by over 2,000! In Northern Maine, the District's proportion of total population in this age category increased by 3. 2% giving this age group the distinction of the greatest proportional increase in any District in the State between 1960 and 1970. Statewide, the proportional gain in this population group amounted to I% of the State's population. In the nation as a whole, this group includes 20.5% of total population compared to 20.9% in Maine. - 18- 65 & Over Age Group The State's population in the 65 and over age class grew by .8% thus placing a little more emphasis on the need for facilities and programs for the aging. In each of the Districts, the number of fem'ales increased while the number of males declined in the Cumberlandf Kennebec and Penobscot Districts. In Northern Maine, this age group increased by the largest proportional amount while the Eastern Maine District retained the highest proportional amount of those 65 and over in its population compared to the State as a whole. In spite of its increase, Northern Maine still had the small-est pro- portion of its population in this age category in the State. Persons 65 and over comprised 11. 7% of the total State's Population in 1970 compared to 9.9% for the nation as a whole. 19- Figure 1 PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT POPULATION CHANGE IN 0 TO 4 AGE GROUP 0 to 4 Age Group Percent of DISTRICT Total District Population 1970 1960 ANDROSCOGGIN 8.7% 10.6% MOIR. 6PNO... CUMBERLAND 8.7% 10.4% EASTERN MAINE 7.8% 10.1% KENNEBEC 8.7% 11.0% MID COASTAL 8.3% 10.5% NORTHERN MAINE 9.5% 14.3% PENOBSCOT i Wpz".. i 8.3% 12.2% P V.&I 111 . 41101 g-! SOUTHERN MAINE 0 2 4 6 1 0 1'2 14 1'6 1@ Sources: Thousands of Persons State of Maine 8.6% 11.2% "General Population Characteristics," 1960 1970 United States 8.4% 11.3% 1960 and 1970 Editions, Census of Population, MALE F 7/7, M Bureau of the Census; and "Pocket Data Book, U.S.A. 1971, " Bureau of the Census; FEMALE Figure 2 PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT POPULATION CHANGE IN 5 TO 14 AGE GROUP 5 to 14 Age Group Percent of DISTRICT Total District Population 1970 1960 I - 00 10.1 ANDROSCOGGIN 20.6% 20.3% CUMBERLAND 16.8% 19.1% Q 04. V/ I . Z., . X-0 /-R@ V-0 - , 0. N EASTERN MAINE 18.9% 19.0% KENNEBEC 20.3% 19.8% M I D COASTAL 19.4T. 18.8% A He. NORTHERN MAINE 23.6% 23.0% PENOBSCOT 20.4% 19.6% N .N SOUTHERN MA1114L 19.3% 19.4% 0 2 4 10 1'2 14 1'6 1 Sources: Thousands of Persons State of Maine 19.8% 19.9% "General Population Characteristics," 1960 1970, *United States 18.05'. 18.2% 1960 and 1970 Editions, Census of Population, MALE Bureau of the Census; and "Pocket Data Book, U.S.A. 1971, " Bureau of the Census; FEMALE 5-13 Age Group - 20- Figure 3 PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT POPULATION CHANGE IN 15 TO 24 AGE GROUP 15 to 24 Age Group Percent of DISTRICT Total District Population 1970 1960 ANDROSCOGGIN AR. 16.5% 13.2% ............... . . A ........... .................................... CUMBERLAND 16.6% 12.6% N. EASTERN MAINE ........................ 15.0% 12.1% N: ........... . ........... ............. ........... KENNEBEC 15.8% 13.0% ............... MID COASTAL 15.4% 14.0% ................. NORTHERN MAINE 17.8% 16.2% ............ RE PENOBSCOT 20.1% 15.6% ........... ....... .... SOUTHERN MAINE W.810.0,14-0 W-42 16.8% 13.1% .......... 0 2 4 6 10 1'2 14' 16 18 Sources: Thousands of Persons State of Maine 16.8% 13.8% "General Population Characteristics, " 1960 1970 *United States 19.5% 15.1 ly, 1960 and 1970 Editions, Census of Population, MALE Bureau of the Census; and "Pocket Data Book, U.S.A. 1971, "Bureau of the Census; FEMALE 14 - 24 Age Group Figure 4 PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT POPULATION CHANGE IN 25 TO 44 AGE GROUP 25 to 44 Age Group Percent of DISTRICT Total District Population 1970 1960 z i lid! ''i -i W. W-5 @ 01@ e-5 ANDROSCOGGIN 21.8% 24.0% CUMBERLAND . . .... 23.1% 24.4% EASTERN MAINE 21.5% 23.3% * KENNEBEC 22.2% 23.6% 0 N/W RZOAMM NOMMU MID COASTAL 21.8% 23.6% NORTHERN MAINE 22.6% 24.9% PENOBSCOT r/ 22.1% 24.7% SOUTHERN MAINE 21.4% 24.2% 0 2 4 8 10 12 14 1'6 1@ Sources: Thousands of Persons State of Maine 22.1% 24.2% "General Population Characteristics," 1960 1970 United States 23.7% 26.2% 1960 and 1970 Editions, Census of Population, MALE Bureau of the Census; and "Pocket Data Book, U.S.A. 1971, " Bureau of the Census; FEMALE 21 - Figure 5 PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT POPULATION CHANGE IN 45 TO 64 AGE GROUP 45 to 64 Age Group Percent of DISTRICT Total District Population 1 1970 1960 K , 0 - - 004: ZZ-1 - Z. 20.8% 20.8% gi ANDROSCOGGIN @R IV OEM K/M. 04.i 001. 2111, CUMBERLAND 22.5% 21.6% EASTERN MAINE 22.3% 21.8% ............. KENNEBEC 21.2% 21.0% -NogM.M.N.., "M -0-110 -0-1-0 0,10" X - - -, 1 0- - 0- -, - M. I" 0, - 0. 1 0, * "' 10- 0. 10* 1'. * - 0-H 0, - 0, - - 0, - 0, 1 fl, . . . . ............. MID COASTAL 22.0% 20.4% ....-M.-mm M.. X:2H... HE.. NORTHERN MAINE 18.0% 14.8% . . . . . ...... PENOBSCOT 19.0% 18.0% N.''.1/0, -07 0., 'A 0 0. 0. 011 /101 01 SOUTHERN MAINE 22.3% 21.3% ..................................... 0 2 8 10 1'2 14 1'6 18 Sources: Thousands of Persons State of Maine 20.9% 19.9% "General Population Characteristics," 1960 1970 United States 20.5% 20.1% 1960 and 1970 Editions, Census of Population, MALE Bureau of the Census; and "Pocket Data Book, U.S.A. 1971, "Bureau of the Census; FEMALE Figure 6 PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT POPULATION CHANGE IN 65 AND OVER AGE GROUP 65 and Over Age Group Percent of DISTRICT Total District Population 1970 1960 ANDROSCOGGIN 11.6% 11. 1 % Z.6 I x e CUMBERLAND 12.3% 11.9% .2 ::2V EASTERN MAINE 14.5% 13.7% KENNEBEC 11.8% 11.6% ........... MID COASTAL 13.1% 12.7% NORTHERN MAINE V-00 W 0. 0, 00 X AR 8.5% 6.8% lm!ll zo -j PENOBSCOT 10.1% 9.9% SOUTHERN MAINE 11.7% 11.6% MRGG: 1,0 116 1 0 2 12 14 18 Sources: Thousands of Persons State of Maine 11.8% 11.0% "General Population Characteristics," 1960 1970 United States 9.9% 9.2% 1960 and 1970 Editions, Census of Population, MALE Bureau of the Census; and "Pocket Data Book, U.S.A. 197 1, "Bureau of the Census; FEMALE - 22 - N E w A m 1 R A zb LZ @z z *ot : :z - 9 lj 15.5 1s Ti N E W 0 R U N S I APPENDIX - 25 - TABLE 3 PORTLAND POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960- 1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Percent Cape Elizabeth 7,873 5,505 +2,368 +43.0 Cumberland 4,096 2,765 +11,331 +48.1 Falmouth 6,291 5,976 + 315 + 5.3 Gorham 7,839 5,767 +2,072 -35.9 Portl and 65, 116 72,566 -7,450 -10.3 Scarborough 7,845 6,418 +1,427 +22.2 South Portland 23,267 22r788 + 479 2.1 Westbrook 141444 13,820 +- 624 +4.5 Yarmouth 4,854 3,517 +1,337 +38.0 TOTALS: 141,625 139,122 +2,503 + 1.8 Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1960 and 1970. Note: Portland lost 7,450 people for a 10.3% loss while the remaining portion of the cluster added 9, 953 for a gain of 15. 0%. The result of this trend has left Portland with fewer people than found in the rest of the cluster. The above cluster of minor civil divisions covers the same area as defined by the Bureau of the Census as the Portland Standard Metropolitan Statistical area. TABLE 4 LEWISTON-AUBURN POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Percent Lewiston 41,779 40,804 +975 +2.4 Auburn 24, 151 24,449 -298 -1.2 Lisbon 6,544 5,042 +1,502 +29.8 TOTALS: 72,474 70,295 +2,179 +T F_ Source: U. S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 5 BANGOR-OLD TOWN-BREWER POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 N u-m- @ -er Percent Bangor 33,168 38,912 -51744 -14.8 Brewer 9,300 9,009 + 291 + 3.2 Old Town 9,057 8,626 431 +5.0 Orono 91989 8,341 1, 648 +19.8 Orrington 2,702 2,539 163 +6.4 Veaz i e 1,556 1,354 + 202, +14.9 TOTALS: -65-,-7-77- 68,781 -3,009 Source: U.S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 6 CARIBOU-LIMESTONE- PRESQUE ISLE POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Percent Caribou 10,419 12,464 -2,045 -16.4 Limestone 10,360 13,102 -2,742 -20.9 Presque Isle 11,452 12,886 -1,434 -11.1 TOTALS: 32,231 381452 - Source: U.S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 7 AUGUSTA- GARDI N ER POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 Number Percent Augusta 21,945 21,680 +265 4-1.2 Chelsea 2,095 1,893 +202 +10.7 Farmingdale 2,423 1,941 +482 1-24.8 Gardiner 6,685 6,897 -212 -3.1 Hallowell 2,814 3,169 -355 -11.2 Randolph 1,741 1,724 + 17 +-1.0 TOTALS: 37,703 37,304 +399 1. 1 Source: U. S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 8 FREEPORT-BRUNSWICK-BATH POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Percent Bath 9,679 10,717 -1,038 -9.7 Brunswick 16,195 15,797 + 398 +2.5 Freeport 4,781 4,055 + 726 +17.9 Harpswell 2,552 2,032 + 520 +25.6 Topsham 5,022 3,818 +1,204 +31.5 75 )TALS: 1 1 38,229 3@, 419 +1,810 TK U- Source: U.S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 9 BIDDEFORD-SACO-OLD ORCHARD POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITYOR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Num66r Percent Biddeford 19,983 19,255 +728 +3.8 Saco 11,678 10,515 +1,163 +11.1 Old Orchard Beach 5,404 4,580 + 824 +18.0 TOTALS: 37,065 34,350 +2,715 +7.9 Source: U.S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 10 OAKLAND-WATERVILLE-WINSLOW POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Pe rc en t Oakland 3,535 3,075 +460 +15.0 Waterville 18,192 19,001 -809 -4.3 Winslow 712W 5,891 +1,408 +23.9 TOTALS: 29,026 27,967 +1,059 +3.8 Source: U. S. Census. [bid. . TABLE 11 SOUTH BERWICK-YORK-KITTERY POPULATION CLUSTER NUMERICAL CHANGES 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Percent South Berwick 3,488 3, 112 + 376 +12.1 Eliot 3,497 3,133 + 364 +11.6 Kittery 11,028 101689 +339 + 3.2 York 5,690 4,663 +1,027 +22.0 TOTALS: 23,703 21,597 +2,106 +9.8 Source: U.S. Census. Ibid. TABLE 12 SANFORD NUMERICAL CHANGE 1960-1970 CITY OR CHANGE TOWN 1970 1960 Number Percent Sanford 15,812 14,962 +850 +5.7 Source: U. S. Census. Ibid. M.-ATION44JER- 3 6668 00001 5364'