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oo 0 W i mo, UEELAN.AU PENINSUILA CURRENT TREND FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS OF ""BUSINESS AS USUAL" "V' V -4 .@v .o.N DRAFT ff @THE LEELANAU GENERAL PLA'--N Policy Guidelines for Managing Growth on the Izelanau Peninsula Worldng Paper Number 5 September 5,1991 N, Printed on Recycled Paper LEELANAU COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS John D. Stanek Philip E. Deering Chairman Vice Chairman Louis A. Girard Donald W. Mitchell Gerald N. Henshaw Joseph F. Brzezinski Rochelle Steirnel LEELANAU COUNTY PLANNING COMMISSION Dana MacLellan Chairperson Merle Bredehoeft Margot Power Jack Burton Lois Cole Louis A. Girard Richard (Rick) N. Stein Steve Kalchik Daniel Heinz Lawrence Verdier LEELANAU GENERAL PLAN STEERING COMMITTEE John D. Stanek Chairman Gary Bardenhagen Carl Headland Glen Noonan Joann Beare Dan Hubbell Richard Pleva Sargent Begeman Richard Hufford Margot Power Ross Childs Kalin Johnson Robert Price Barbara Collins Linda Johnson E. Larry Price Shirley Cucchi Colleen Kalchik Ed Reinsch Catherine J. Cunningham Edward Kazenko George Rosinski Walter Daniels Ray Kimple Richard Sander Phil Deering Stan Kouchnerkavich Charlene Schlueter Judy Egeler Fred Lanham Jr. Ruth Shaffran Randy Emmeot Elizabeth Lafferty-Esch Thomas Shimek Kathy Feys Don Lewis Dennis Stavros Mary Frank Douglas Manning Harry Stryker Gary Fredrickson Larry Mawby Mitsume Takyama James Frey John McGettrick Midge Werner Paul Gardner James Modrall Ben Whitfield John Hardy John Naymick Ruth Wilbur Max Hart Mary Newman DRAFT TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................... iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ iv INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ ix Purpose of Working Paper ................................................................................... ix Your Opinions are Important-Please Share Them ............................................. ix Data Qualifiers ......................................................................................................x Presentation Format ..............................................................................................x "Big Picture" Considerations .................................................................................x Chapter 1: POPULATION ........................................................................................... 1-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1-1 Chapter 2: ECONOMY ................................................................................................ 2-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 2-1 Chapter 3: LAND ........................................................................................................ 3-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3-1 Chapiter 4: PUBLIC FINANCE .................................................................................... 4,11 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 4-1 Chapter 5: TRANSPORTATION ................................................................................. 5-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5-1 Chapter 6: COMMUNITY SERVICES ......................................................................... 6-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 6-1 Chapter 7: INFRASTRUCTURE .................................................................................. 7-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 7-1 Chapter 8: ENVIRONMENT ......................................................................................... 8-1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 8-1 POSTSCRIPT 0 Working Paper #5- Trend Future Page i DRAFT LEELANAU GENERAL PLAN PROJECT STAFF Timothy J. Dolehanty Duane C. Beard County Planning Director County Coordinator Trudy J. Galla Pat Stratton Assistant Planner County Board Secretary Joyce Pleva Planning Department Secretary LEELANAU GENERAL PLAN TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE STAFF Planning And Zoning Center, Inc. 302 S. Waverly Road Lansing, MI 48917 (517)886-0555 (517)886-0564 FAX Mark A. Wyckoff, AICP, President Mark A. Eidelson, AICP, Sr. Planner Brenda M. Moore, Community Planner Jennifer L. Morris, Planning Aide Coy Vaughn, Jr., Graphic Artist Working Paper #5 - Trend Future .Page # DRAFT PREFACE This working paper is the first in a series providing background information for the prepara- tion of the Leelanau General Plan: Policy Guidelines for Managing Growth on the Lee- lanaui Peninsula. It is numbered as the fifth working paper because the first four working pa- pers Were generated to document the activities of the Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC). This committee studied the need for a new County plan and various approaches that could be taken in the preparation of such a plan. They concluded that while a new plan was needed, it should not be simply another "County Comprehensive Plan"prepared by the! County Planning Commission. Instead, what is needed is a growth management plan for the Peninsula that in- volves the direct input and participation of all the local units of government in the County. This led to the initiation of the Leelanau General Plan. This working paper documents current trends facing the County in eight different cate- gories: �Population �Economy �Land �IPublic Finance �'Transportation �("O"ornmunity Services �11nfrastructure �Environment. In each case there is an effort to identify the current or emerging pattern or trend and then to describe the future if the trend continues. If no citizen or local government or groups of citi- zens or governmental organizations were to make an effort to change anything (i.e. no new plans, regulations, taxes, subsidies, incentives, etc. were initiated), and current trends were to continue, what would the future be like? This report attempts to project the implications of the f utu re if it is "business as usuaL " This working paper is intended to serve as a discussion document to stimulate thought and motivate participation in the preparation of the Leelanau General Plan. If you have sugges- tions Ifor additions, deletions or refinements, please direct them to the Leelanau County Plan- ning Department. Working paper #6 presents draft goals and objectives for the General Plan. A series of working papers beginning with #7 will address a wide range of technical iSSUes in more detail. The introduction and postscript explains the process in more detail. Working Pkoer #5- Trend Future Page & DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Listed below are the emerging trends and projections for each of the eight categories of in- formation addressed in this report. Population Trends �Total permanent population is increasing at about 2.5 - 3% per year. �In-migration continues to be the primary source of population growth. �Seasonal population continues to grow at a faster rate than permanent popu- lation. �While the County population is aging, it is not the number over age 65 who are increasing the median age as much as it is the "baby boomers" reaching middle age. �Average household size continues to fall as new households are created faster than population grows. �Multi-unit residential facilities are increasing in response to the growth of sin- gle person and childless households and the relative decline of married couple families. �New seasonal housing units are built about twice the rate of permanent resi- dences. �Persons of low income are proportionally fewer, but the disparity between the wealthy and the poor is growing. The need for more affordable housing is be- coming more acute. �The number of school-aged children is increasing at a slower rate than the general population. Projections �The year-round population will continue to increase between 2.5 - 3.0% per year. �Population increases due to in-migration will account for the majority of addi- tional population increases �Peak seasonal populations will continue to outnumber resident populations by at least 7 to 1. �Median age will continue to rise, staying higher than the state's average. Older residents will be more economically well-to-do and politically active. They will demand a higher quality of life and expect a higher level of services. �The Native American population will continue to grow but will still comprise a relatively small percentage of the total population unless in-migration in- creases. �Increases in the number of households will continue to outstrip increases in population by at least 50%, and as a result, average household sizes will re- main relatively small. On a per-unit basis, more land will be used to accom- modate fewer people. �There will continue to be an increase in demand and production of multi-unit residential facilities. The impacts of such development (both perceived and real) will affect the rural character and public facilities in specific areas. Single person and childless households will become a larger percentage of total WorOng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page iv DRAFT households. Many of these households will want non-traditional housing ar- rangements that fit their lifestyles (e.g., condominiums, and apartments vs. large lot single family homes). The percentage increase in number of sea sonal housing units will be more than twice as high as the increase in year- round units. � The margin between the wealthy and the poor will widen. Those with fewer economic resources will find it more and more difficult to survive as cost of living and cost of public services rise. � Smaller families, senior, childless and single-person households will continue to increase at a faster rate than nuclear families. As a result, the number of school-aged children will not increase at the same rate as the general popula- tion. Education levels of the County's population will rise with the influx of af- fluent people. Economy Trends � The County's labor force is growing at a slower pace than it's more urbanized neighbor, Grand Traverse County. � Except in times of severe recession, unemployment rates are lower in Lee- lanau County compared to Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. � The County is becoming more dependent on the tourist trade. � Service and retail establishments and employment are increasing faster than other trade sectors. � Agriculturally based businesses are declining in economic significance relative to other sectors. � Small businesses provide the majority of jobs in the County. � Transfer payments in the form of pensions and social security represent a significant flow of money to the local economy. Projections � The County's labor force will grow at a slower pace than the population (approximately 8% in the next several years). � Unemployment rates in the County are projected to be between 6.8 and 7.4% in the next several years. � Relatively low paying retail and service jobs and construction jobs, will provide the bulk of new employment opportunities. � Agricultural profit margins will decrease as taxes and cost of production rise and revenues fluctuate. More agricultural land will be taken out of production in anticipation of higher profits from potential development. � Small businesses will continue to grow in number to try to ccapture tourist op- portunities and because of the lack of other job alternatives. � Tourism will continue to increase its economic significance while agriculture and the little industrial activity will decline. � Imported retirement funds (pensions and social security) will become a larger part of the local economy. Working Paper #5- Trend Future Page v DRAFT Land Trends Urbanization in the form of sprawl is occurring on the Leelanau Peninsula and is expanding at an increasing rate. Land division practices are continuing to fragment renewable resource lands. The commercial viability of agriculture and its economic importance to the Peninsula are increasingly threatened as sprawl continues. Sprawl is continuing largely unabated because current local and county plan- ning and zoning programs encourage it. Projections � Urbanization of the Leelanau Peninsula will continue and will become the fun- damental force in the loss of the Peninsula's rural character and important open spaces. � Land fragmentation will fuel continued sprawl, an early demise of agriculture in some areas, and result in significantly higher taxes due to both increased land values and the higher costs of providing public services. � The Leelanau Peninsula will witness a decline in agricultural acreage as farm- land is converted to residential and other urban land uses. � Community unrest and political pressures will heighten as local and county governmental entities grapple with diverse community attitudes in their inde- pendent efforts to better manage growth. Public Finance Trends � The tax base is growing with new development. � While there are significant differences in millage rates among local units of government in the County, all are generally increasing. � On a per capita basis, the County receives lower than state average alloca- tions from most state departments. Projections � New revenues from development will eventually fail to pay for associated costs of community services because development is too spread out. � Millage rates will become more disparate as more developed, wealthier com- munities increase millages at a higher rate than communities of modest or low incomes in order to meet growing service burdens. � While public service needs will increase, state and federal aid will not propor- tionately increase. Transportation Trends � The automobile will remain the dominant mode of transportation and is in- creasing faster than the population. � Traffic levels are increasing Peninsula-wide, although the rates are higher along traditionally lower volume roadways. Wofkng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page W DRAFT The increases in travel time, congestion, and traffic hazards spurred by growth and development are exacerbated by the circuitous roadway network in the County. The need for major roadway improvements is increasing while available funds 0 are decreasing. Road ends are increasingly serving as public access sites -to the area water resources. Congestion is most apparent in urban and activity centers; where seasonal residents compete with permanent residents for parking. Projections The number of single occupancy passenger vehicles will continue to grow at a faster rate than the population. Significant decreases in the level of service of both primary and secondary roadway corridors will be experienced as traffic volumes continue to increase. Travel time will lengthen and traffic safety will become increasingly threatened at rates proportionally'higher than area population growth. Future transportation funding will not be sufficient to resolve the inadequacies of the Peninsula's roadway network. Parking and congestion problems will increase in the urban centers and key activity centers as tourism grows. Increased conflicts will evolve between visitors and waterfront property owners along road ends. Community Services Trends � Community leaders and the citizenry are recognizing potential needs for addi- tional community services (e.g., education, health, recreation),. � An older population is becoming established in the County that is accustomed to urbanized levels of service. � Demand on fire and police services is rising. � Youth services are limited in the County and needs for them appear to be in- creasing. Projections � While the need for additional community services is recognized, the financial support to provide them is not there. � An older population will place more demands on community service systems, in particular, health care and emergency services. � Needs of those with low incomes will increase as cost of living rises in the County. � Child care and child service needs for households in poverty will increase. � Fire, emergency response, police calls and public annoyance crimes (trespassing, disorderly conduct and vandalism) will increase with additional seasonal population increases. Working P4)er #5- Trend Future Page Y# DRAFT Infrastructure Trends � The current sprawl pattern of land development minimizes the pressure for new or expanded public infrastructure systems. � New public infrastructure systems to serve existing developed areas are rela- tively costly due to the small population centers and limited cost sharing op- portunities. Projections � Infrastructure will play a limited, but increasing role in the Peninsula as urban- ization continues. � The provision of new infrastructure in existing villages will be more costly, and hence less likely, than the provision of new facilities as a part of new large scale development. Environment Trends � Air quality continues to decline due largely to land use activities hundreds of miles away within the Lake Michigan Basin. � Sprawl-like development is the leading threat to the quality of land and water resources. � Surface waters are vulnerable to contamination due to the lack of a coordi- nated stormwater management program. � New sites of groundwater contamination are being discovered. 0 Significant losses of sensitive environments (wetlands, sand dunes, flood- plains, high risk erosion areas, shorelines) are continuing from many small in- cremental encroachments. � Solid waste disposal is not the huge problem it is in most counties for the foreseeable future, but is likely to be later unless a stronger multi-county solid waste disposal alliance is created. Projections � Air quality levels will remain high throughout the Peninsula, though pollution from hundreds of miles away will continue to lower air quality. � The existing high surface water quality of inland lakes and streams may be reduced as new development occurs in the absence of a coordinated stormwater management program. � The identification of new sites of groundwater contamination will result in new efforts to clean up existing sites of contamination and to prevent future ones. � Decreases in the quality and quantity of sensitive environments, including wetlands, woodlands, shoreline and dune areas, will likely occur with future growth. � The Peninsula's solid waste disposal needs for the foreseeable future will be adequately addressed by implementation of the County's current solid waste management plan. However, long term needs will require a stronger multi- county alliance. Wotkng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page viii DRAFT INTRODUCTION Purpose of Working Paper The purpose of this working paper is to stimulate thought and discussion about the future. Rather than rely on sophisticated projections of many variables which in turn imust be founded on a set of assumptions, which may or may not be viewed as reasonable (or perhaps even likely) by most people, this working paper examines the future based on a very simple premise. What will the future be like if it merely reflects a continuation of existing trends? After examining the current trend future, several questions will likely come to mind. For ex- ample: �If the future turns out to be a continuation of recent trends, is that what the citizens of the Peninsula want? Is it a desirable future? �Does it represent a quality of life at least equal to that presently enjoyed? �Does it represent a sustainable future? �Will it leave the next generation with reasonable options or will exploitation of natu- ral resources and current opportunities leave future generations with more prob- lems than possibilities? �Is the public prepared for the loss of agricultural land and open spaces that would occur? �Are citizens prepared for the growth that is likely to occur even if there were no changes in local or County policies or both? �Are County and local governments prepared for the new demands, for services in- herent in the increases in both year round and seasonal populations? �Are citizens prepared for the higher taxes necessary to pay for new services? Following a presentation on September 5 based on material in this repoil, the Leelanau General Plan Steering Committee was asked as a group the following questions: Is the trend future different from what you expected? Is it what you want? If not, why not? If so, why? The Steering Committee responded "Yes" to the first question and "No" to the second. Reasons expressed in opposition to the trend future ranged from a loss of open space, to higher taxes, to a lack of good paying employment opportunities for youth in the County who may want to stay and make a living here. No one expressed support for the current trend fu- tu re. Your Opinions are Important-Please Share Them The Leelanau County Planning Department, Leelanau County Planning Commission, Lee- lanau General Plan Steering Committee, County Board of Commissioners and the elected of- ficials in your local government want to know your thoughts about this report. Do you want the Working Paper #5- Trend Future Page ix DRAFT current trends to continue? If yes, why? If not, how do you want the County to grow and change? Please let people know what you think and why. Data Qualifiers This report relies largely on statistical indicators of change. In many instances the specific information most desirable to document a trend was not readily available. As a result, surro- gates had to be used. None of the data presented was originally collected. It has all been as- sembled by other agencies and most of it has been reported elsewhere. It is possible that there are errors, although efforts have.been made to prevent any new errors by reporting it here. An effort has also been made to present available information simply. There may be other ways to interpret the same data. Feel free to contact the County Planning Department about any errors, questions or comments you may have on the data presented herein. All of the data has been presented exclusively for the Peninsula. No effort has been made to identify, collect and display information related to any of the islands that are a part of Lee- lanau County. In large part this is because of the lack of such available information. Presentation Format The presentation style, format and structure of this report is modeled after a similar report prepared by the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments in 1990 entitled The "Business as Usual" Trend Future: The Data Base. That pioneering report has spawned a number of similar efforts because of the simplicity and clarity with which important trend information can be conveyed. The authors of this working paper both acknowledge and thank the authors of the SEMCOG report for their foresight and creativity. "Big Picture" Considerations This working paper documents current trends facing the County in eight different cate- gories: � Population � Economy � Land � Public Finance � Transportation � Community Services � Environment. Together these trends present the prospect of significant change in the Peninsula over the next two decades. Most formidable are changes to the people and to the land. If the current trends continue, within 20 years Leelanau County will: Have a resident population - at least 50% greater than the present 0 - older than the present Wor;dng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page x DRAFT that is one-seventh to one-tenth of the seasonal population with greater disparity between the wealthy and the poor. Have an economy more dependent on tourism � with more commercial and tourist oriented establishments � with more low paying commercial and service sector jobs � with fewer agricultural establishments and jobs. Have land that � is characterized more by sprawl and an early stage of urbanization than dis- tinct rural and urban areas � has a noticeable loss in its rural character � has considerably less agriculture has many more houses in rural areas has considerably less open space has fewer views of public resources with more open space in 'Yards" and less in fields, orchards and woods continues to be fragmented and developed in rural areas in part because of local planning and zoning programs that encourage it. Have public finance that is characterized by a � growing tax base � but also higher taxes � great differences in millage rates within the County with the wealthier com- munities having much higher rates than the poorer ones � greater reliance on local revenues over state or federal ones. Have roads with - considerably more traffic - longer travel times - less safety due to more driveways and higher volumes - more congestion and serious parking problems in the villages. Have community services which � are inadequate to meet those in need � are inadequate to meet the level of service desired by the elderly � are significantly greater in terms of police and fire service in order to meet growing needs � are inadequate to meet some of the special needs of youth. Have infrastructure which � is still largely limited to the villages but needed elsewhere � is very costly to install because of the low density sprawl devolopment pattern. Have an environment which � has a reduced level of air quality due to activities hundreds of miles away has a surface water quality that is somewhat reduced in quality due to the lack of stormwater management � has more instances of contaminated groundwater � has had additional losses of wetlands, sand dunes and other sensitive envi- ronments through incremental encroachments � needs to find other alternatives for solid waste disposal. These changes are presented as trends and projections in the body of this report. Addi- tional background information is also presented. Working Paper #5- Trend Future Page xi DRAFT Chapter 1 POPULATION INTRODUCTION Characteristics of the permanent residents of Leelanau County have changed steadily over the past forty years. Four different populations appear to be emerging. The first are lifelong residents, the second are native Americans, the third are immigrants, and the last is the sea- sonal population. The latter two are more affluent than the first two groups and tend to have higher educations. This is resulting in the creation of "haves" and "have nots" and some jeal- ousies and tensions between the various groups. The likelihood of conflicts between values held by each population may grow if the disparities between them become more acute. However, the precise characteristics of the existing population, as represented by the 1990 census, won't be known until final count data is released in the spring or summer of 1992. So- phisticated projections also won't be available until then. However, some preliminary data is available for comparative analysis with past census data and with simple straight line projec- tions. In general, this data confirms the continuation of trends that began several decades ago and indicates the following emerging patterns: � Total permanent population is increasing at about 2.5 - 3% per year. � In-migration continues to be the primary source of population growth. - Seasonal population continues to grow at a faster rate than permanent population. While the County population is aging, it is not the number over age 65 who are increas- ing the median age as much as it is the "baby boomers" reaching middle age. � Average household size continues to fall as new households are created faster than population grows. � Multi-unit residential facilities are increasing in response to the growth of single person and childless households and the relative decline of married couple families. � New seasonal housing units are built about twice the rate of permanent residences. � Persons of low income are proportionally fewer, but the disparity between the wealthy and the poor is growing. The need for more affordable housing is becoming more acute. � The number of school-aged children is increasing at a slower rate than the general popu- lation. Woridng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-1 DRAFT Chapter I POPU LATION INTRODUCTION Characteristics of the permanent residents of Leelanau County have chcanged steadily over the past forty years. Four different populations appear to be emerging. The first are lifelong residents, the second are native Americans, the third are immigrants, and the last is the sea- sonal population. The latter two are more affluent than the first two groulm and tend to have higher educations. This is resulting in the creation of "haves" and "have nots" and some jeal- ousies and tensions between the various groups. The likelihood of conflicts between values held by each population may grow if the disparities between them become more acute. However, the precise characteristics of the existing population, as repre.sented by the 1990 census, won't be known until final count data is released in the spring or summer of 1992. So- phisticated projections also won't be available until then. However, some preliminary data is available for comparative analysis with past census data and with simple straight line projec- tions. In general, this data confirms the continuation of trends that began several decades ago and indicates the following emerging patterns: � Total permanent population is increasing at about 2.5 - 3% per year. � In-migration continues to be the primary source of population growth. � Seasonal population continues to grow at a faster rate than permanent population. � While the County population is aging, it is not the number over age 6.15 who are increas- ing the median age as much as it is the "baby boomers" reaching middle age. � Average household size continues to fall as new households are created faster than population grows. � Multi-unit residential facilities are increasing in response to the growth of single person and childless households and the relative decline of married couple families. � New seasonal housing units are built about twice the rate of permanent residences. � Persons of low income are proportionally fewer, but the disparity between the wealthy and the poor is growing. The need for more affordable housing is becoming more acute. � The number of school-aged children is increasing at a slower rate than the general popu- lation. Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-1 DRAFT Figure 1-1 Leelanau County Population: 1860 - 2010* projections made in 1985) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (M CD CD C=> CD C=) C') C) CD C= C=) =1 =1 CD a) r@ 00 C" -d- LO LO r@ 00 cr) M C@, 00 00 00 CM M a) M cm M M M Cn Cn C=) CI4 CN Source: Decennial Census 1960-1990; Projections, Michigan Dept of Management Budget Figure 1-2 Population Change From 1940 to 1990 Suffons Bay Vill. Suttons Bay Twp . ..... Solon Twp. Northport Vill. Leland Twp. 01990 E Leelanau Twp. Kasson Twp. 1940 CD 0 Glen Arbor Twp. Empire Vill. Empire Twp. Elmwood Twp. Cleveland Twp. Centerville TwP. Bingham Twp. IIIIIIIIUIIIILU 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 @ 01 go 1111 9940J Source: Derived from Decennial Census 1940-199o Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-2 DRAFT The year-round population will continue to increase between 2.5 - 3.0% per year. Leelanau County's lumbering era popula- Table 1-1 tion reached its peak in 1910 at 10,608. Between 1910 and 1930 the population dropped 29%, to 8,206. Since that time, the Percentage qIncrEiase in population has continually increased, with the County Population most dramatic changes coming since 1960. In the last four decades the County has Year Percentage Increase experienced a 91% increase in population 1950-1960 +7.8% (see Table 1-1). In 1985, the Michigan 1960-1970 +16.6% Department of Management & Budget 1970-1980 +28.8% projected by the year 2010, the County 1980-1990 +18% population will increase by another 27%, 1990-2010 +27% reaching 20,980. Projections presented in the County's 1989 Solid Waste Plan show the Population increases in the County have population reaching 20,300 by the year 2007. not been consistent acros's, all jurisdictions Straight line projection based on the 1970, (see Figure 1-2). For instance, the percent- 1980 and 1990 census figures reveal a age of change in population between 1940 population in 2010 of approximately 23,000 and 1990 among local units of government (see Figure 1-1). range from a high of +335% in Elmwood Township to a low of +2% in the Village of Northport (see Figure 1-3). This pattern will likely continue without additional infrastruc- ture in the villages (see Chapter 7). Figure 1-3 Percent Change in Population by Local Units of Government in Leelanau County Between 1940 and 1990 DRAFT Figure 1-4 Seasonal Population for Leelanau County 120,000- RUNHU; El Estimated in 1975 100,000- El Estimated in 1981 1111111114 IIIINI!! 80,000- Estimated in 1987 H 60,000- .. ... . ...... .... 40,000- ilimplill R I'll!, q, 20,000- iiii., p .......... 0 December March to Juneto September to May August to February November Source: Leelanau County 1989 Solid Waste Plan, 1975 a 1981 figure NWUCOG, 1987 Est. by Gosling & Czubak Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-4 DRAFT Population increases due to in-migration will account for the majority of additional population increases. Over the last eight years, on an annual In fact, in-migration, betweEm 1980 and 1990 basis, there were three times more births amounted to 1,703 persons and accounted than deaths in the County (see Figure 1-4). for 68% of the County's population gain in Between 1981 and 1988 the average number that time period. Net in-migration between of births per year was 215 and the average 1970 and 1979 amounted 'to 2,738 persons number of deaths was 76. The higher birth and accounted for 87% of the population in- rate, however, does not account for the entire crease during that period. population gain experienced by the County. Working Paper #5 -Trend Future Page 1-5 DRAFT Figure 1-5 Births and Deaths Recorded in Leelanau County Between 1981-1988 300 200 ............. I .. ..... 100 iiiNMIiiIIIIIII 1111iMINIIIIIIII TIM! !lNIIIMT!I!l IIIIIIIINIIIIIi. MIM; MIN 0 Nii Mi 1981 1982 i 1983 1984 1985 Births 1986 ......... 1987 ::: - Deaths Source: Michigan Vital Statistics System, Office of State Registrar, Michigan 1988 Dept of Public Health Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-6 DRAFT Peak seasonal population will continue to outnumber rosident populatfon by at least 7 to 1. While there's limited data available on the season (June-August) the seasonal popula- County's seasonal population, it appears to tion outnumbers the year-round population be increasing as evidenced by sales tax col- by nearly 7 to 1. This number is up consider- lected by tourism related business, increases ably from 1975 estimates that suggested in jobs related to tourism and visitation to peak seasonal population outnumbered year Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore round residents by 4 to 1 (see Figure 1-5). It (see Figures 2-7, 2-8, 2-9, 2-10 and 2-11 in should be noted that 1981 -figures are down Chapter 2). The most recent available esti- from 1975 figures due to the recession. mates (1987) suggest that during the peak Woddng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-7 DRAFT Figure 1-6 Percentage of the Population by Age Group 60--, El 1960 so- E3 1970 El 1980 40- 01990 CEL, 30- Cl- ....... ...... 20- V 110- ........... ....... ... ...... . . ...... ..... 0 Under 5 5-17 18-64 65+ Source: Decennial Census Figure 1-7 Median Age for 1950 to 1990 El Michigan N Leelanau ED Benzie 13 Grand Traverse 40 35 - - 30 .... 111gl Hi 25 .... .... . ......... .... ...... 20 .... 15 ........... ... 10 - ........... .. .............. I ........ I ........... ... . . .......... ......... ........... ........... .... . ........... . ... ........... ... .......... ..... . ........... .... . . ..... .... i........... .... ......... . ........... .. . .............. . ...... ... . . ..... ... .. ........... . ...... ........... . ... ............. ........... ........... . ........... .......... . ..... .. ........... . ......... ...... . . ........... . .. .. ..... ... . ....... . .... . ....... .... 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Source: Decennial Census Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-8 DRAFT Median age will continue to rise, staying higher than the state's average. Older resi- dents will be more economically well-to-do and politically active. They will demand a higher quality of life and expect a higher level of services. The percentage of the population over 65 increase in median age can primarily be at- in 1960 was approximately 12%. It had risen tributed to retirees relocating in the County slightly to approximately 15% by 1990 (see and the relatively large number of baby Figure 1-6). By the year 2010, the Michigan boomers reaching middle age. Department of Management and Budget projects that approximately 13% of the popu- Illustrations of age/sex shifts over time lation will remain over 65. can be seen in Figures 1-8 through 1-10. In 1960 those under 19 made up a much larger While state trends show an aging popula- segment of the population than that same tion (i.e., an increase in median age) Lee- group did in 1980. By 1980, the shifts in the lanau County consistently shows greater in- population in older age groups can be seen. creases than the state (see Figure 1-7). In According to projections for the year 2000 by 1970 the County's median age was 29.3 the Michigan Department of Management years of age (the state median was 26.5 and Budget, the top age groups will have the years), by 1990 the median age increased to heavier gains, again, as tile baby boomer 36.5 years (vs. 32.6 for the state). When generation ages. What should also be con- comparing median age to neighboring coun- sidered are the wave of baby boomer chil- ties, Leelanau is higher than Benzie (1990 dren coming of age to bear children. median age 33.2) but lower than Grand Tra- verse County (1990 median age 37.5). The Figure 1-8 1960 Age-Sex Pyramid for Leelanau County ...................... .................... ... ..... .@- .............................................. ........... ...... -female El imale r7777777=. 7=7=77=777rm ............................. M-TIF ................................ R a...... .......... ............... .............................. =3 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-9 DRAFT Figure 1-9 1980 Age-Sex Pyramid for Lee'lanau County El female ED male -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Figure 1-10 2000 Age-Sex Pyramid for Leelanau County . . . . . . . ..... MM female M.M.M.M.I. MOM?, E) male 40-44.,. ..S5. I II MR F F77777777= ...... 1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-10 DRAFT The Native American population will continue to grow but will still comprise a relatively smail percentage of the total population unless In-migration increases. The vast majority of the County's popula- and identification by more persons of their 0 tion is white. The highest number of minod- Native American ancestry. ties in the County are Native Americans, who compdse almost 3% of the population (451 The success of the recently expanded persons). By comparison, in 1970 and 1980 gambling casino is providing job and eco- they represented slightly over 1 % of the nomic opportunities for Tdbe members. population with 131 and 178 persons, re- Given increasing toudsm in the County, this spectively. The increase may be due to in- facility is likely to take on a more significant creased in-migration of Native Americans role for the Native American population. Af- fordable housing is also a strong attractor. Wor;dng Pager #5 - Trend Future Page 1-11 DRAFT Figure 1 -11 Number of Households in Leelanau County Fiom 1950-1990 7000- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .......... 6000- .:2 5000- Q 4000- ............. .............. .............. ............ .......... 3000- .......... . . E .......... ...... .............. ............... .............. 2000 . .. .......... ............. 1000- ...... ..... . .... .......... . 0- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Source: Decennial Census Figure 1-12 Leelanau County Percentage Change in Population and Households 1950-1990 180% .45. 160% w 1400/6- vc 120%- 100%- A 1111111111 !IlM11l MMil Mid iMMI! Miilil 80% INN Oil U 60% 40%- 200% o,7, 1950-1990 1950-1990 1 in ncrease Increase in Population Households Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1- 12 DRAFT Increases in the number of households will continue to outstrip increases in popula- tion by at least 50%, and as a result, average household sizes will remain relatively small. On a per-unit basis, more land will be used to accommodate fewer people. The number of households in Leelanau 1950 to 2.62 in 1990 [a decqfqine of one person County have increased along with its popula- per unit, a 37% decrease (see Figure 1-13)]. tion (see Figure 1-11). However, the percent- Ranges in persons per household among age of increase in households has been sig- local units of government in 1990 varied from nificantly greater than that of the population a high of 2.90 in Kasson Township to a low of (see Figure 1-12). This is because of an in- 2.13 persons per household in Glen Arbor crease in seasonal housing, the number of Township. single person households and the fact that people are now less likely to share housing Married couple families are becoming a (e.g., extended family households). In fact, slightly smaller percentage of households in the number of households increased 164% Leelanau County. In 1980 they represented between 1940 and 1990 compared to a 91% about 69% of all households, by 1990 the increase in population. percentage decreased to 668q%. From an his- torical viewpoint, nearly 81% of all house- Average household size in the County de- holds in 1950 were married couple families. creased from 3.6 Dersons 8qoer household in Figure 1-13 Leelanau County Population Per Household From 1950 to 1990 Source:Decennial Census Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-13 DRAFT Figure 1-14 Percent Change in Housing Units Between 1970 and 1990 140.00%- % Increase Between 1970 and 1980 120.00%- % Increase Between 100.00%- 1980 and 1990 U2 80.00%- .................. . .............. . .............. .. 60.00%- ... ........ ... ............ ......... ...... CL ........... ...................... 40.00%- ........... .................... ................ .. ................... ................ . . . . . . . . . . . .................. 20.00%- : .-,- :.' ............... .............. 0.00%- .............. Total Housing Units Vacational, Seasonal, or Migratory Source: Decennial Census Figure 1-15 Residential Building Activity in Leelanau County Between 1980 and 1990 1 unit 250. 2 Units 3-4 Units 200 5+ Units 150 100 50 7 1 Un' 2 Un4s U . @3-4nfts 5+ Units 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Source: Michigan State Housing Authority and Bureau of Census Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1- 14 DRAFT There will continue to be an increase in demand and production of multi-unit residen-. tial facilities. The impacts of such development (both perceived and real) will affect the rural character and public facilities in specific areas. Single person and childless households will become a larger percentage of total households. Many of these households will want non-traditional housing arrangements that fit their lifestyles (e.g., condominiums, and apartments vs. large lot single family homes). The percentage in- crease in number of seasonal housing units will be more than twice as high as the in- crease in year-round units. In the last decade the number of total homes are replacing them. This is most true housing units in the County increased just around inland lakes. In other cases, old farm over 23%. The number of seasonal or migra- houses are being demolished and new tory units increased over 125% in that same homes built nearby. time period (see Figure 1-14). The majority of new housing units still tend to be single fam- The nature of the County's housing units ily detached, but in recent years multifamily is still dominated by single family detached units have also increased in number (see homes. The most notable change in types of Figure 1-15). Of the 2,200 units permitted be- structures between 1980 and 1990 is the in- tween 1980 and May of 1991, 79% were crease in mobile homes, which have more single family units. The remainder were multi- than doubled in the 10 year period. This may family; 15% were in structures with5 or more be a direct market response to the need for units; and 6% were in structures with 2-4 affordable housing. units (see Figure 1-16). Between 1980 and 1990 there were 74 demolitions in the County The majority of the County's housing is (see Figure 1-17). In some cases, prime fairly new with over 50% of the housing stock properties are being purchased, older homes being built since 1970. demolished and newer. more elaborate Figure 1-16 Residential Building Activity Between 1980 and 1990 Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-15 DRAFT Figure 1-17 Residential Building Activity in Leelanau County Between 1980 and 1990 300 El Dernolftions 10. 250 Total 200 Hill 150 - 100 50 I fill I r . 0 - 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Source: Michigan State Housing Authority and Bureau of Census Figure 1-18 Per Capita Personal Income $18,000- $16,000 - 131959 $14,000- E3 1968 $12,000- 01978 $10,000 - po: 01988 4 $8,000- $6,000 $4,000 1111111 .1 . . . . ..... $2,000 $0 Michigan Leelanau Benzie Grand Traverse Source: U.S. Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Anaiy@ ! 110- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-16 DRAFT The margin between the wealthy and the poor will widen. Those with fewer economic resources will find it more and more difficult to survive as cost of living and cost of public services rise. Poverty rates declined between 1970 and family incomes increased almost 710%. The 1980 (1990 figures unavailable). In 1970 state figure increased by 528%; Grand Tra- nearly 13% of the County's population was verse, 630%; and Benzie, (323% (see Figure below the poverty level. By 1980 8.3% of the 1-19). population was below the poverty level. Despite the percentage decrease in While per capita income of Leelanau poverty level and increases in income, a County is lower than the state's average, the slightly higher number of individuals receive County (since 1968) has had a consistently assistance from the Department of Social higher per capita income than neighboring Services. From 1982 to 1990 between 812 Grand Traverse and Benzie Counties. Be- (1986) and 924 (1990) people received pub- tween 1959 and 1988 the State's per capita lic assistance per month in the County (see incomes increased by 630% while Leelanau Figure 1-20). County's increased 865%. Grand Traverse and Benzie County's per capita incomes in- The percentage of recipients in the creased 710% and 580%, respectively, in County ranged from a high of 8% in 1982 to that same time period (see Figure 1-18). a low of 5.8% in 1988. Leelanau County has a low percentage of its population receiving Median family income in Leelanau County public assistance compared to other counties has also increased at a greater pace than the in the state. Transfer payments coming into state and its neighboring counties. Between the County in 1990 to public assistance re- 1950 and 1980 (note alternative time frame cipients amounted to 1.4 million dollars (see from per capita figures) Leelanau County Figure 1-21). Figure 1-19 Median Family Income for 1950-1980 El 1950 25,000 El 1960 El 1970 20,000- 01980 15,000- 10,000- ... . . . . . . ..... ..... 5,0000 1 1! 0 Michigan Leelanau Grand Traverse Benzie Source: Decennial Census Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-17 DRAFT Figure 1-20 Monthly Average Number of Public Assistance Recipients in Leelanau County 940 920 900 880 860 840 820 E 2 800 780 760 740 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Source., Michigan Department of Social Services Figure 1-21 Total Annual Public Assistance Payments to Recipients in Leelanau County 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 - - 400,000 200,000 0 ,..... . ................... ... . ............................ . . 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 0 Source: Michigan Department of Social Services Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1- 18 DRAFT Smaller families, senior, childless and single-person households will continue to in- crease at a faster rate than nuclear families. As a result, the number of school-aged children will not increase at the same rate as the general population. Education levels of the County's population will rise with the influx of affluent people. Between 1980 and 1990 the number of General educational levels have risen in school-aged children aged 5-17 decreased Leelanau County and are expected to con- from 22% to 18.5%. While the number of tinue to rise. In 1970 only 57% of the popula- children 5 years and under increased from tion had a high school diploma. By 1980 the 6.5% to 7.5%. More significantly, while the to- figure had risen to 77%. When 1990 figures tal population increased 18% in the last are released, it is anticipated that a still decade, the percentage of the population that higher average percentage will have com- are children did not increase. pleted high school and that levels of college attainment will be relatively high. School enrollments have remained relatively flat in the last couple of decades in Leelanau County (see Figure 1-22). Figure 1-22 Figure 1-22 School Enrollment From 1970 to 1991 4500 4000 Total 3500 Northport 3000 Glen Lake 2500 Leland 2000 Suttons Bay 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Respective School Districts Traverse City not available Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 1-19 DRAFT Chapter 2 INTRODUCTION ECONOMY Leelanau County's economy has experience significant shifts over the last several decades. In the 1940's agriculture was the prime employer in the county. By 1988 retail and service sectors provided the majority of employment. Manufacturing has remained relatively stable in terms of the number of jobs provided, but it continues to be a minor employer overall. Other key emerging patterns in the local economy are outlined below. � The County's labor force is growing at a slower pace than it's more urbanized neighbor, Grand Traverse County. � Except in times of severe recession, unemployment rates are lower in Leelanau County compared to Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. � The County is becoming more dependent on the tourist trade. � Service and retail establishments and employment are increasing faster than other trade sectors. � Agriculturally based businesses are declining in economic significance relative to other sectors. � Small businesses provide the majority of jobs in the County. - Transfer payments in the form of pensions and social security represent a significant flow of money to the local economy. WorKng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-1 DRAFT Figure 2-1 Leelanau Labor Force El Grand Traverse 40,000 Benzie 35,000 30,000 Cj .... .... ... .... .... 2 .... ... .... 25,000 M ...... ... X. .... ..... ..... ... 20,000 ..... .... .. ... A 15,000 E .... .... ..... ...... ..... ... .... 0,000 .... ..... ..... !5 000 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Source: Michigan Employment Security Commission Workng Papter #5 - Trend Future Page 2-2 DRAFT -The County's labor force will grow at a slower pace than the population. In the last ten years Leelanau County's ment Security Commission projects that the average annual labor force has ranged be- labor force will increase 8% to approxi- tween a high of 8,350 (in 1983) to a low of mately 9,000 by 1992. For comparative 7,650 (in 1985). As of December 1990, the purposes, Grand Traverse County had a labor force was estimated at 8,300 (see 1990 labor force of 36,350; up nearly 15% Figure 2-1). since 1985, and is also expected to experi- ence an 8% increase in its labor force over Overall, since 1985, the County has ex- the next several years. In contrast, popula- perienced approximately an 8.5% increase tion growth will be about 2.5-3.0% per year. in its labor force. The Michigan Employ- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-3 DRAFT Figure 2-2 Unemployment Rates 25.00 El Michigan Leelanau 20.00 Grand Traverse Benzie E 15.00 -7 P 10.00 - Mill' a_ MM Mill ........... .... ..... 0 00 . 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Source: Michigan Employment Security Commission , @an au Traverse L Worldng Papter #5 - Trend Future Page 2-4 DRAFT Unemployment rates in the County are projected to be between 6.8 and 7.4% In the next several years. During the recession of the early 1980's, Centerville Township, with a labor force of Leelanau County's unemployment rates 400 and an unemployment rate of 14.9%. were higher than state averages. However, The low was in Bingham Township with a Benzie County tended to have much higher labor force of 900 and an unemployment rates than the state, and Grand Traverse rate of 3.4%. The highest number in the la- County tended to have slightly higher un- bor force is in Elmwood Township with employment rates than the state, fairing 1,950 persons. Differences in unemploy- better than Leelanau County in that time. ment rates and labor force participation be- Since 1987, Leelanau County has had un- tween local governmental units are ex- employment rates lower than or equal to pected to continue. This range is so great those of the state. This has also been true that it represents a major disparity in wealth of Grand Traverse, but not Benzie County within the County. (see Figure 2-2). Within the County unemployment rates vary widely. In 1990, the highest rate was in Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-5 DRAFT Figure 2-3 Employment by Sector for Leelanau County Between 1972 and 1988 600 1972 01976 500 El 1980 ... 400 1984 300 01988 200 :Iii:4 100 -T-fl FM A- L 0 +. Transportation Federal Govt. Agriculture, Farm State & Local & Public Emp. Forestry & Proprietor Govt. Emp. Utilities Fisheries Emp. Source: Michigan State University: Center for the Revitalization of Industrial States (CRIS), U.S. Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis is Figure 2-4 Employment by Sector for Leelanau County Between 1972 and 1988 El 1972 1600 El 1976 1400 1200 131980 1000 El 1984 800 - 1988 ..... 600 ::X :::::-:-X 400 20 0 ...... . . . .... . . . ..... .. 0 Finance Construction Retail Trade Wholesale Manufacturing Services Insurance & Trade Real Estate '3 '972 El 1976 3 0 @E8 19 19 1988 El @19872 E, 1976 1980 jq@ 19 8 source: Michigan state University: center for the Revitalization to Industfial States (CRIS), U. S. Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Working Papter #5 - Trend FUN Page 2-6 DRAFT Relatively low paying retail and service jobs, and construction jobs, will provide the bulk of new employment opportunities. Since 1972, the greatest increases in etors, 67 jobs (13%) and agriculture, employment have come in the service and forestry and fisheries by 36 jobs (30%). retail sectors. The number of jobs in the Federal government, wholesale trade and service sector increased from 871 in 1972 manufacturing employment have stayed to 1,433 in 1988 (up 64.5%). The number relatively flat (see Figures 2-3 and 2-4). of jobs in retail trade have gone from 464 to These trends are expected to continue as 957, an increase of 106%. Jobs in con- they are largely fueled by increases in struction and finance, insurance and real tourism, in-migration and construction of estate have also increased 82% and 36% seasonal housing. Unfortunately, many of respectively. Jobs attributed to transporta- the service sector and retail jobs are low tion and public utilities increased from 41 to paying, are seasonal, and are not very 79 (up 93%). Employment in state and local stable. They are not very recession proof. government, farm proprietor, agriculture, Rather than broaden the economic base of forestry and fisheries has decreased since the County, they are narrowing it with as- 1972. State and local government jobs de- sociated declines in agriculture. creased by 113 jobs (20%); farm propri- Agricultural profit margins will decrease as taxes and cost of production rise and rev- enues fluctuate. More agricultural land will be taken out of production in anticipation of higher profits from potential development. In 1940, 56% of the County's labor force of adjoining farmland increase. Associated was employed in agriculture. By 1960, 18% higher taxes, in addition to rising costs of of the labor force was employed in agricul- machinery, seed, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. ture. The percentage of reported jobs re- have increased the cost of production lated to agriculture in the 1988 County making additional land sales attractive (if Business Patterns shows this figure has not necessary) to the farmer in years with fallen to approximately 10%. Part of this low market prices for fruits and grains. New decline is due to improved mechanization nonfarm residents also often complain and productivity. Another reason is the about typical farm practices making life for large increase in other jobs during the farmers even more difficult. The end result same period. However, the rising in-migra- is greater incentive to sell farmland for its tion and associated demand for rural lots development value. has stimulated farmland sales. As more nonfarm related homes are erected, values Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-7 DRAFT Figure 2-5 Leelanau County Establishments By Trade 70 Agriculture El Transportation 60 ED Construction 50 ....... ..... Manufacturing ...... ...... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... 40 Nonclassified .... 7M ..... ..... .... ..... 30 ... ..... ....... ..... IR ..... ..... .i 20 - - ..... ..... 10 ....... . . . ..... ........ ..... ..... . . . ...... . . . . ..... ...... wo . . ...... ...... 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 Source: County Business Patterns, Bureau of Census Figure 2-6 Leelanau County Establishments by Trade ED Wholesale Trade El Retail Trade 140 - 0 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Cn 120 - Services E 100 ...... ..... .. ... .... 80 ..... . ........ Cn 60 ...... ......... ....... 40 E . ..... ... .... ...... ... ........ ....... .. .. . . 20 ...... ........ ..... ....... ...... ........ .... . ...... . .... .. ....... . ... ....... .. ..... ...... .... .... ....... ... 0 gricu an 0 r rt e sp ation 'onstruction tui g Ian @acn 10 uf ssifr ncla ied HIP", 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 Source: County Business Patterns, Bureau of Census Workng Papter #5 - Trend Future Page 2-8 DRAFT Small businesses will continue to grow in number to try to capture tourist opportuni- ties and because of the lack of other job alternatives. The highest increase in numbers of es- of employees was.7. In contrast, the larger tablishments by trade in the County since private employers of the County include: 1960 has been in retail trade and services. Grand Traverse Band Ottawa Chippewa Retail trade establishments have gone up Indians (casino), Homestead Resort, Sugar 105% and service sector 409% since 1968. Loaf Resort, and Prutsman Mirror. As a The number of construction establishments destination location with abundant natural have nearly tripled between 1968 and 1988 amenities, the best opportunities for bud- (see Figures 2-5 and 2-6). ding entrepreneurs are tourist oriented. The The majority of jobs in the County are easiest (and potentially most destructive) provided by small business. The average have an origin in the exploitation of natural number of employees per reported service resources. establishment in 1988 was 13. For retail trade establishments the average number Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-9 DRAFT Figure 2-7 Average Annual Number of Jobs in Tourism-Related Businesses in Leelanau County 700 600- 500 400 300 ........... 200- ..... ....... 100 K: 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 Source: Travel Tourism in Michigan, A Statistical Profile, 1986 & 1991 (MSU, Travel, Tourism RecreationResource Center) Figure 2-8 Annual Percentage Change in Tourism-Related Business Jobs (1977-1987) 12 El 1977-82 10- El 1982-87 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8- 1977-87 6- 4- . . . . ........ 2 ............ ...... ........... . . . ............ 0@ ..... Leelanau Benzie Grand Traverse Source: Travel a Tourism in Michigan, A Statistical Profile, 1986 a 1991 ed. (MSU, Travel, Tourksm a Recreation Resource Center) Working Papter #5 - Trend Future Page 2-10 DRAFT Tourism will continue to increase its economic significance while agriculture and In- dustrial activity will decline. The annual average number of jobs that gan experienced a decline in watercraft can be attributed to tourism have generally registrations between 1978 and 1985, increased since 1974 (see Figure 2-7). The Leelanau's registrations continued to climb. average increases since 1977 have been Overall, between 1978 and 1991 the lower in Leelanau County than in neighbor- County had a 42% increase in registered ing Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties watercraft. In that same time period, the (see Figure 2-8). The number of tourism state experienced an approximate 22% in- related jobs peak during summer months crease. This data not only demonstrates and taper oft during the off-season. the relative popularity of boating in Lee- lanau, but also demonstrates that more Another indicator of tourism activity is people are calling the County their home sales tax collected by tourism-related busi- port, as they have registered their water- nesses (see Figure 2-9). Sales tax collec- craft here. tions associated with family restaurants has experienced the greatest increase since Sleeping Bear Dunes National 1983. Sales tax attributed to taverns and Lakeshore is a major attraction in Leelanau clubs and hotels and motels have also in- County. Visitation to the lakeshore has creased overall. generally increased over time (see Figure 2-11). Well over a million people visit the Water related activities are a critical Dunes on an annual basis. Note that visita- component of Leelanau County's ameni- tion counts are down in recent years be- ties. While there is no direct data on the to- cause the National Park Service has closed tal number of watercraft using Peninsula a campground for upgrading. When this waters, the number of watercraft registered facility is completed, it is anticipated that in the County has increased dramatically visitation will once again climb. overtime (See Figure 2-10). While Michi- Figure 2-9 Leelanau County Sales Tax Collections (11983, 1985, 1987, 1989) 300,000 El 1983 ED 1985 M 1987 0 1989 250,000 200,000 cc, 150,000 X 100,000 Cn 50,000 IN Taverns and Hotel Dining Family Fast Food Sporting Hotels and Clubs Rooms Restaurants Resaurants Goods Motels Source: Travel and Tourism in Michigan, a Statistical Prorile, i9a6 a iggi. MSU Travel and Tourism Research Center. Ff Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-11 DRAFT Figure 2-10 Registered Watercraft 45.00% - County Percentage Change 40.00% - 35.00% - El Michigan Percentage Change 30.00% - 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% ............ -5.000/1 I-Q751) Ut2l F?QXr-QAtngQ 0 -10.00% Change Source: Department of State Figure 2-11 Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore Annual Public Use 1,400,000- 1,200,000- 1,000,000- 800,000-;::*:::'::'::' 600,000- 400,000 200,000 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Source: Leelanau County Sheriffs Dept. (*note: In 1987 method for determining visitation changed. 7@ More accurate traffic centers installed. Camp site closed in 1990 for repairs which accounts for loss in visits) 0 Working Papter #5 - Trend Future Page 2-12 DRAFT Imported retirement funds (pensions and social security) will become a larger part of the local economy. Between 1969 and 1989, the number of able data on employer pensions provided persons receiving social security benefits in to retirees in the County, but it can be sur- Leelanau County increased 168%, going mised that social security payments actu- from 1,036 to 2,780 average monthly recip- ally represent a relatively low percentage of ients. The amount of benefits imported into retiree income entering the County. As the the County increased over 24 times. In retiree population grows, so will future rev- 1969, total monthly social security pay- enues from social security and pensions. ments amounted to 60,233. Comparatively, This is a stable source of income not as in 1989, total'average monthly payments subject to the vagaries of recession, but amounted to nearly 1.5 million dollars (see more prone to reduction in value due to in- Figures 2-12 and 2-13). There is no avail- flation. Figure 2-12 Total Individuals Receiving Social Security 3000-- 2500 -- 2000 -- 43 1500 10001 500-- 0- 1969 1965 1971 1975 1980 1985 1989 Source: Social SecuriW Administration Figure 2-13 Leelanau County - Total Monthly Payments to Social Security Recipients 1,600,000 1,400,000 E@' 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400 2 000 00:000 V 1969 1965 1971 1975 1980 1985 1989 Source: Social Security Administration Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 2-13 DRAFT Chapter 3 LAND INTRODUCTION Changes on the surface of the land are the most visible changes taking place on the Peninsula. When a forest is harvested, a new orchard planted, a hillside home erected or a new commercial structure built, the evidence is visible for all to see. However, the most impor- tant changes to the land taking place on the Peninsula are usually invisible for years. These are the land divisions which fragment land into parcel sizes too small for resource manage- ment and too large for efficient provision of public services. In most cases this is done for low density residential development purposes. While it is visible changes to the land which have heightened citizen awareness of the need for a Peninsula-wide approach to managing growth, it will be the degree to which the in- visible changes are brought under control in the near future which will establish the options for the future. Specific patterns which are emerging and discussed in this chapter include: � Urbanization in the form of sprawl is occurring on the Leelanau Peninsula and is expand- ing at an increasing rate. 0 Land division practices are continuing to fragment renewable resource lands. The commercial viability of agriculture and its economic importance to the Peninsula are increasingly threatened as sprawl continues. � Sprawl is continuing largely unabated because current local and county planning and zoning programs encourage it. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-1 DRAFT Figure 3-1 Leelanau County Land Use/Cover Analysis 1) Barren Land 01990 OT tj V Wetlands 1977 Act Inland Surface Water 4- Wooded Land Open Land Farm Land Urban Land 0.00 15,000.00 30,000.00 45,000.00 60,000.00 75,000.00 90,000.00 Source: DNR, Michigan Resource Inventory System and Leelanau County Planning Dept. Figure 3-2 Leelanau County Land Use/Cover Percent Change Between 1977-1990 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 - 0.00 -10.00 Urban Farm Wooded Inland NBarren Land Land wa Land Surface Land -20.00 Water -30-00 -40.00 0 '990 &MM LIM1 977) @rr hi Source: DNR and Michigan State Univermty Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-2 DRAFT Urbanization of the Leelanau Peninsula will continue and will become the fundamental force in the loss of the Peninsula's rural character and important open spaces. The urbanization of the Leelanau Penin- large (and often noisy) equipment, the gen- sula has taken a dramatic shift in the past eration of dust, smoke, fumes, odors, the use twenty-five years. Prior to that time, most of pesticides, fertilizers, herbicides and other families either resided in one of the villages, chemicals, the disposal of animal wastes and on a farm, or on property used for another long hours of operation. These activities of- resource based activity (such as forest prod- ten conflict with the quiet use and enjoyment ucts, fishing, etc.) or were retired around one of residential property. In addition, residential of the numerous lakes in the County. How- use drives up the value of agricultural land ever, since the mid-60's, non-resource based resulting in higher taxes for the farmer and a residential development has begun to reduced capacity to continue farming. threaten, and in many cases replace, re- source based uses of land. This trend is an The continuation of sprawl on the Penin- early form of low density urbanization known sula threatens not only resource based in- as "sprawl." Sprawl is best characterized by dustries, but also the open spaces sought by the lack of a clear functional relationship be- new residents and thousands of tourists each tween one use of land (e.g., residential) and year. It threatens to permanently change the the use of lands around it (e.g., agricultural). character of the entire Peninsula. Sprawl occurs in part, in response to a mar- ket demand for low density living options in The words "rural" and 'Pastoral" aptly de- rural settings, and also because it is both scribe the past and current character of the permitted and encouraged by local zoning. vast majority of the Peninsula. Of the ap- proximately 216,000 acres which comprise However, while sprawl initially is a very the Leelanau Peninsula, almost 94% are of low cost development pattern (from the an open space character including extensive standpoint of public services), once the low woodlands (approximately 7,430 acres) and rural level of service threshold of public ser- agricultural lands (approximately 51,563 vices has been breached (especially for acres) as well as significant areas of wet- roads, police, fire, schools and emergency lands, fields, rolling topography, and water services) it is the most expensive develop- resources (see Figure 3-1). Urban lands ac- ment pattern, and the only one to also result counted for 6.23% of the County area in in the systematic destruction of the resource 1990. That is an increase of nearly 38% value of renewable lands (such as farms and since 1977. Nearly 80% of the urban lands in forests). This is because farms and nonfarm 1990 were residential with almost all of that residences are not compatible neighbors. single family (see Figure 3-2). Farming for grains and orchards are essen- tially industrial operations involving the use of Working Paper - Trend Future Page 3-3 DRAFT Figure 3-3 Population Per Square Mile From 1940 to 199,0 0 Leelanau EJ Benzie 150 ............- Grand Traverse 100 ..... ... ... ... ... ..... ..... ... . ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... .. ..... .. ....... ... ........ ...... so ........ .......... . .... ...... .. ....... .. ...... ... ... i*:7. ... ..... .. .......... 0 .... .... .. Grand Traverse 1940 1950 Benzie 1960 1970 Source: Decennial Census 1980 - - - Leelanau 1990 Figure 3-4 Percent Increase in Density Between 1940 and 1990 ... ...... 180% 160%- 140%- 120%- ........... 100%- X X::K 80%- ....... ... 60%- .... ... .... 40% ................................ 200/,- ........................... *jx ................................. ........................... X.: ... .......... .. ..... . .............. ...............r..... . . .... . . . . . . 0% Leelanau Benzie Grand Traverse Source: Derived from Decennial Census Data L e ana@ e' u Benzie r T 13 LGand raversje Working Paper #5 - Trend FUture Page 3-4 DRAFT Of the approximately 3,820 acres in the While a portion of the increased urban- Peninsula rezoned between 1980 and 1989, ization is anticipated to occur adjacent to and nearly 37% were converted to a residential near the greater Traverse City urban area designation and nearly 46% were converted (and will greatly influence visitors' initial per- to a commercial designation. Total annual ceptions of the Peninsula), the entire Penin- land acreage rezoned has risen sharply since sula is expected to experience more sprawl. 1986 and has averaged over 550 acres per year between 1986 and 1990. At current This sprawl will ultimately and significantly rates, an additional 7,000 acres of land will transform the current character of the be consumed for urban use by the year 2010 Peninsula because of increases in vehicular resulting in an urbanized area approaching traffic and congestion, decreases in the lev- 10% of the total County area. els of public services (but with higher taxes), degradation of the Peninsula's unique char- Population density in the Peninsula has acter and scenic quality, and loss of special increased 50% since 1970 (Figure 3-3) and environments. 100% since 1940 (see Figure 3-4). The population density in Leelanau County in 1990 (48 persons per square mile) is nearly what Grand Traverse County's was in 1940 (50.4 persons per square mile). The popula- tion density in Grand Traverse County in 1990 was 139 persons per square mile. Sig- nificant increases in urbanization have oc- curred in nearly all areas of the Peninsula * and have resulted in significant character changes in localized areas. Diagram of the Urban Sprawl Cycle URBAN SPRAWL INCREASED INCREASED LAND SALES FARM LAND VALUES DECREASED :R PROFITABILITY ASSESSED OF FARMING VALUE INCREASED PROPERTY TAXES Source: Duniont R. W, 1979., Farmland T&K Ratio( Alternatives: Use Value Assessment W Qrcuif-Srealw Rebates, Orc 617, C0490 of Agnculture Research Center, WmAinglon State University, Pullman, WA. (Sept.) Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-5 DRAFT Fig. 3- 5 - 3-6 Figure 3-5 I S@CTION, FIRST DIVISION INTO TEN ACRE PARCELS caw"pw t I I- COUrRY P40 Figure 3-6 1 SECTION, SECOND DIVISION, 4 PARCELS FROM EACH TEN ACRE PARCEL Cmmty Rwd ==L-j 7-1 I L L FF3 I I I -7TT- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-6 DRAFT Land fragmentation will fuel continued sprawl, an early demise of agriculture in some areas, and result in significantly higher taxes due to both increased land values and the higher costs of providing public services. The division of lands in large acreages of 10 acre parcels without going through the into smaller parcels is a standard feature of formal review and approval requirements of the early stages of urbanization. Initially the Subdivision Control Act. It also allows up farmers split 160 acre parcels off 320's or to four divisions of under 10 acres in size 80's off 160's for their children to continue a from a parent parcel to be created each 10 way of life. As the cost of farming increases, years without platting. along with the market demand for rural living sites, smaller parcels are created and sold. The result, over time, is the creation of a Unfortunately, PA 288 of 1967, the Subdivi- rural subdivision without any public review, sion Control Act, has established a simple, and the attendant loss of large amounts of but highly destructive way to do that. PA 288 farmland, forestland and open space. Figures permits the creation of an unlimited number 3-5, 3-6 and 3-7 show how it happens. Figure 3-7 I SECTION, THIRD DIVISION, EACH PARCEL DIVIDED ONE MORE TIME. PARCEL SIZE LESS THAN 2 ACRES County Road X.- 7 =17=7F, If M C Road Road I L-j County Road Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-7 DRAFT It usually begins with landowner, often a Unfortunately, this kind of land division farmer, who in order to meet a cash need, or practice, when carried out on a wide scale, to capitalize on rising land values, decides to results in rural subdivisions with multiple sell some land. If he wants to stay in farming driveways (and attendant traffic safety con- he will choose to sell marginal land (as long cerns), high public serviCEi costs (it is not as it 'Perks') with good access (along a compact), a near total loss of open space (all County Road). He will also make it as small the open space is in front and back yards), as possible to preserve the largest amount of and the establishment of a significant number farmland. The realtor, representing potential of uses (usually residences) that are incom- buyers, wants the land in a marketable size. patible with the use of adjoining farms. The This means it can't be too big because it situation is exacerbated over time as taxes would cost too much and can't be too small on the farm go up due to the new (obvious) because the farmer won't earn enough from development potential for nonfarm resi- the sale. As long as the parcel size is greater dences. then the minimum required by the local zon- ing ordinance, and there is no local lot split This pattern is nearly invisible at first. It ordinance or private road ordinance (rarities takes place over a 20-40 year time frame and in Leelanau County), the parcel size will be is set once the land division occurs (often governed pursuant to PA 288. Often a farmer decades earlier). Many ten acre and smaller will take a forty acre parcel and first divide it parcels are split and sold under land contract into 4 ten acre parcels and then divide one of (often unrecorded until paid off) and paid the 1 O's into 4 smaller lots (the size will de- over a 9-11 year period. It may be several pend on parcel characteristics (e.g., slope, more years before a house is built. While the access, whether it 'Perks", etc.). The realtor impact on loss of open space may not occur will market the sale of the 10's as containing right away, the impact on loss of farmland 'is future lots once the 10 year "no-redivision often immediate (unless the farmer leases period" is up. This enhances the purchase for backtheland). some because it represents a way to recoup part of the investment if they stay 10 years, or to enhance its marketability to others if they don't stay that long. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-8 DRAFT This pattern is rampant in Leelanau represent a ready supply-of land for new County. One way to get a visual image of it, homes in subdivisions. Because of marketing .s to compare 'Plat maps" (such as those and good location, these lots are likely to de- produced by Rockford Map Publishers in velop more quickly than many larger parcels Rockford, IL) over a period of time. A sample scattered throughou t the County. The aver- analysis of average parcel sizes in 1930, age lot size is usually 1/2-1 acre in size. 1960 and 1990 was performed on Suttons While concentrated in a smaller area, they Bay, Centerville, Elmwood and Kasson represent a reduced loss of agrucultural land Townships. The analysis revealed that while and open space compared to the more scat- the very large acreages that were common in tered 10 acre residential pattern (see Figure 1930 had been divided many times by 1960, 3-9). the average parcel size had only fallen 4% from about 71 acres to about 68 acres. In The state equalized value of residential contrast, the average parcel size in these and commercial land in the Peninsula has in- four townships fell nearly 68% from 1960 to creased 178% and 139% respectively be- 1990 down to 41 acres. The range of decline tween 1980 and 1990 as compared to the varied from 59.1% to 64.6% for all but Kas- 30% increase in agricultural value for the son Township where it fell 81.6%. The per- same time period. cent of total parcels 10 acres or less in size rose from approximately 2% in 1930 to about Ten acre and smaller parcels, when used 44% over the same period. There is no rea- for residential purposes only, contribute to son to believe the same results would not the inefficient use of land as agricultural hold true if the analysis were performed for acreage is needlessly taken out of produc- all other townships in the County. tion, important open spaces and environ- mental systems are fragmented, and signifi- Another indicator of recent land division cant acreage beyond the immediate needs of activity is the growth in the number of resi- the residence are left vacant and excluded dential parcels on the tax rolls over the past from more productive uses. Further, resi- 10 years (see Figure 3-8). In 1980 there dential development at such low densities were 11,151 residentially classed properties can result in escalating public service costs, compared to 14,297 in 1991, an increase of including police and fire protection services, 28%. In contrast, agriculturally classed as the service areas must be extended for a parcels fell by 583 for a 36.9% decline. proportionally limited number of residences. Commercial properties increased by only 7%, This circumstance may ultimately force resi- while the number of industrial parcels didn't dents to accept lower levels of service change. Timber/cutover lands declined dra- (longer emergency response times, as an matically from 900 in 1980 to only 289 in example) or pay additional taxes or fees to 1991, a two-thirds reduction. finance costly yet inefficient public service ex- tensions. Existing platted but unbuilt lots are also numerous throughout the County. These lots Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-9 DRAFT Figure 3-8 Total Residential Lots in Leelanau County From 1980 to 1991 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 ....... . . ...- 12,000 ...... ............ 11,500 - ...... ... .... .. . 11,000 - .. . . ... .. ... 10,500 - ...... ... .. ...... .... .. .... ........... 10,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1991 Source: Leelanau County Department of Equalization Figure 3-9 Developed & Undeveloped Platted Lots 1991 10000- 8000- 6000- 4000- 2000- IF O-Z Platted Lots Developed Platted Lots Remaining Platted Lots Not Ukely to Platted But be Developed Undeveloped* *Represents about 9,667people Source: Leelanau County Planning Department Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3- 10 DRAFT The Leelanau Peninsula will witness a decline in agricultural acreage as farmland is converted to residential and other urban land uses. Agriculture in Leelanau County comprises . farm acreage and leads the regional area in approximately 84% of all active land use orchard acreage and orchard farms (see acreage. The Peninsula is unique in that it Figures 3-10 and 3-11). includes a vast orchard industry which ac- counts for nearly a third of the total Peninsula Figure 3-10 Number of Acres in Orchards M Leelanau El Benzie 18000. El Grand Traverse 16000- L 14000- ... ....... ..... .. ... ..... .. ..... .. ... ..... .. .... .... .. .... ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. 12000- ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. 10000 ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... I . ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... I . *... .. ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. 80001 ..... .. ....... ...... .. .... .. ..... .. .... .. ....... .... .. ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ....... .... .. ....... ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ....... .... .. ....... ..... .. ..... .. .... .. ..... .. ....... 6000- ....... ..... .. ..... .. .... .. ....... ... .... .. ....... ..... .. ..... .. 4000- ......... . . . . . ........ ..... ......... . . . . . .. .... .. ....... 2000- . .... .. ... ........ - : - @ - 7 0- 1974 1978 1982 1987 Source: Census of Aqficufture, 1988 Figure 3-11 Number of Farms in Orchards 0 Leelanau 300-/ EJ Benzie El Grand Traverse 250- ... .... .. ....... ...... ...... ...... .... 200- ...... .... .. ....... ...... ...... ...... .... * ...... .... .. ....... ...... ...... .... . .... .. ....... ...... ...... .... . .... . ...... ...... ...... .... . ...... ...... 150- ....... ...... ....... ...... ...... .... . ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .... . ...... ...... 100- .... . .... . ...... .... .. ...... . .... .... 50 .... .. ...... X. .... .. ...... 0 Li 1974 1978 1982 1987 Source: Census of Agriculture Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-11 DRAFT Figure 3-12 Total Land in Farms & Acres Enrolled in PA 116 80,000-/ Total Land in Farms ..... .. ..... . ....... ....... 0,000. ..... .. ..... .. 6 Acres Enrolled in PA 116 ....... ....... ..... .. ..... .. ....... ....... 40,000- .... .. ..... .. ....... ....... ..... .. ..... .. 20,000 0 7:7 : 7 Leelanau Benzie Grand Traverse Source: Dept. of Agdcultured Economics, MSU, 1991 Figure 3-13 Percentage of Land in Farms Enrolled in PA 116 25 20 15 ............. 10 . . . . . . . . . . 0 Leelanau Benzie Grand Traverse Source: Dept of Agricultured Economics, MSU, 1991 Figure 3-14 Acres Enrolled in PA 116 El 1980 20,000 1985 15,000 ....... 10,000 ....... ... 111111990 5,000 1990 0 .. ........ 1985 Leelanau 1980 Benzie Grand Traverse iiv 198J 0 1985 1990 Source: Dept of Agricufture Economics, MSU, 1991 Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-12 DRAFT The Peninsula's farmland and agriculturally a program providing for strong agricultural related activities are the foundation for much preservation, and the County rates high of its unique charm and character. Economi- within the region in its involvement in this cally, agriculture is a cornerstone of the program, only 21.5% of the local farmland is Peninsula and rivaled only by the tourism in- actually enrolled in the program with an av- dustry. The market value of agricultural prod- erage of 114 acres per contract. Trends sug- ucts sold in the County in 1987 was approxi- gest the rate of enrollment may be leveling mately $15 million. Still, the role of agriculture off (see Figures 3-12, 3-13 and 3-14). has, and can be expected to increasingly Though the average farm size in the Penin- decline in importance as witnessed by a sula has remained fairly constant during the nearly 33% drop in the market value of farm past twenty years (see Figure 3-15), the products sold between 1978 and 1987. As Peninsula has already witnessed a 48.5% the population growth of the region contin- drop in the total number of farms between ues, land development pressure will 1954 and 1982 from 833 to 429. heighten. Though the Farmland and Open Space Preservation Act, PA 116 of 1974 established Figure 3-15 Average Size of Farms Michigan Leelanau 250-11 Grand Traverse El Benzie 200 - 150-1, .... ..... .. E X X: X 100-1, V) so- X. .... ..... XX JA 0- 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 Source: Census of Agriculture, 1988 Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-13 DRA T Figure 3-16 Total Buildout Population for Leelanau County Suttons Bay Vill. Suttons Bay Twp. Solon Twp. Northport Vill. Leland Twp. Leelanau Twp. Kasson Twp. Glen Arbor Twp. Empire Vill. Empire Twp. Elmwood Twp. Cleveland Twp. Centerville Twp. Bingham Twp. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 Source: Leelanau County Planning Department Figure 3-17 Leelanau County Percent Population Change Between 19SIO and Total Possible Buildout Suttons Bay Vill. ........... Suttons Bay Twp. :'-*@--.-.-.-.-.-......-.-....... ...... .......................... .................. ....... ... Solon Twp. . ... .... ... ...... Northport Vill. . ............... ........... ........ .......... Leland Twp. Leelanau Twp. .......... Kasson Twp. ................ ............... Glen Arbor Twp. Empire Vill. . . ........ x@x@ ...... . Empire Twp- ........... ......... ... ........ .. ........ .. ........ Elmwood Twp. ......... ... . ... .......... Cleveland Two ............ . . ............ .... . Centerville Twp. ................ ............. . .. . ....... .......... t Bingham Twp. . . ... ...... 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 3,500.00 Source: Leelanau County Planning Department Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-14 DRAFT Community unrest and political pressures will heighten as local and county gov- ernmental entities grapple with diverse community attitudes in their independent ef- forts to better manage growth. The market forces behind sprawl, once 78,750, it would still be nearly 5 times the started, are considerable. Unfortunately, they present population and would represent an are fueled in Leelanau County by local plans enormous impact on farmland, water re- and zoning ordinances that encourage them. sources, public services, sensitive lands and This may seem unlikely since most land is open space. In fact, unless the new devel- zoned for low density single family use, either opment were very compact, taxes would as the primary use (as in a residential district) have to rise dramatically to pay for the same or as a permitted use (as in an agricultural level of service offered today (but especially zone). However, if all land is developed at with regard to traffic, it would not be possible the maximum permitted density, as tends to to maintain the existing service levels espe- occur over time (provided there is an ade- cially during the summer tourist season). quate market for the land) then even a low density development pattern results in a With sixteen separate, uncoordinated large population. zoning ordinances in the County, no agree- ment on how to handle issues of greater then Last year, the Leelanau County Planning local significance, and no common concen- Department conducted a buildout analysis of sus on a growth management plan for the all zoning then in place in the County. A Peninsula, it is unlikely that the forces of buildout analysis calculates the total number sprawl will be managed. While each com- of households and total population of a juris- munity has its own zoning ordinance, and diction if all undeveloped, but buildable land, some have a current comprehensive plan, is developed at the maximum density permit- each plans its future with a focus that does ted "by right" under the zoning ordinance. not extend beyond its jurisdictional bound- The results are presented in Figures 3-16 aries. Yet the character and daily living pat- and 3-17. terns of each individual community are greatly shaped by Peninsula-wide trends and Despite strong statements supporting forces. preservation of farmland and open space in most of the zoning ordinances in the County, As sprawl continues, the Peninsula can none have regulations which effectively pro- be expected to witness increases in commu- tect these resources. If the current population nity unrest and frustration both within and be- per household is maintained, at buildout, the tween local jurisdictions as conflicting devel- County's population would be about 315,000 opment policies evolve. Solutions will be diffi- people. This is 18 times the current popula- cult to achieve as the necessary mechanisms tion and would, if it were the population to- for conflict resolution will be limited and those day, rank Leelanau as the fifth largest county that may exist will not focus on the "big pic- in the State. It would result in an average ture" but rather on the provision of "bandaid" population density of 914 persons per square answers. A marked decrease in the quality of mile (compared to 48 persons per square life as perceived by both Peninsula residents mile today). and tourists will evolve. As a result, local elected and appointed officials will spend Now there are many legitimate reasons more and more time reacting to growth pres- why a population this large is not likely at sures and addressing constituent concerns buildout, but even if it is one-quarter of that or but with fewer and fewer options available. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 3-15 DRAFT Chapter 4 PUBLIC FINANCE INTRODUCTION The ability of Leelanau County and the local jurisdictions which comprise the Peninsula to provide adequate services and address day-to-day community needs is directly tied to public finances. Public financing includes the collection of revenues and allocation of funds for com- munity and administrative needs. As state and federal assistance has declined for a wide range of community development and improvement projects, communities have had to shoul- der additional financial burdens in an attempt to merely maintain current levels of services. Growth and development in the Peninsula has placed both additional strains on and benefits to local revenues. However, the continuation of current trends (especially of sprawl) suggests the long term outlook for the Peninsula will be a losing struggle to meet the day-to-day service needs of residents and tourists and maintain the current quality of life unless taxes are dramatically increased. Emerging patterns regarding public finance on the Leelanau Peninsula include the following: � The tax base is growing with new development. - While there are significant differences in millage rates among local units of government in the County, all are generally increasing. � On a per capita basis, the County receives lower than state average allocations from most state departments. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-1 DRAFT Figure 4-1 State Equalized Valuation Percentage Change By Class Between 1980 and 1990 1.8- 1.6- 1.4- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... .. ........... ......... ............. ........ . .......... 1.2- ...... ....... .. ... ........... . . . . . . ........ .......... ........... 2 0.8- .......... ............ ........................... ................ 0.6- ............... ............. ......... ............... ..................... . .. .. ..... 0.4- 0.2 0 Agriculture Timber Residential Commercial Industrial Source: Michigan Dept. of Treasury Figure 4-2 State Equalized Valuation: Real Property ED Agriculture $450,000,000 El Timber $400,000,000 ED Residential $350,000,000 Commercial $300,000,000 $250,000,000 Industrial 0. L $200,000,000 $150,000,000 W $100,000,000 NO $50,000,000 $0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1 990 Source: Michigan Dept of Treasury Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-2 DRAFT New revenues from development will eventually fail to pay for associated costs of community services because development is too spread out. Land values and taxes associated there- Because the pattern of development is of with have been steadily increasing within the such a low density sprawled character, the Peninsula. Between 1980 and 1990, all relative cost of service delivery is that much classes of lands experienced an increase in higher. Services must be provided to large state equalized value (SEV) ranging from geographical areas though limited popula- approximately 10% for industrial lands to tions exist within these areas. This is ex- 178% for residential land (see Figure 4-1). tremely costly. It is questionable whether the Increases in SEV among the five land revenues collected from the rural areas of the classes resulted in a total SEV increase for Peninsula equal or approach the actual cost the entire Peninsula between 1980 and 1990 for the delivery of services to these areas. of nearly 150%, from approximately $225 million to $550 million. Similarly, sales tax Generally, residential land uses produce collections have witnessed a dramatic in- the greatest strain upon public finance be- crease as well although the principal area of cause of the abundance of services associ- increase was in family restaurants. ated with this land use including education, police and fire, social, health, and emergency Although these increases in SEV have led services. The extreme increases in SEV val- to increases in tax revenues, their impact ues for residential property compared to upon the Peninsula's ability to provide ser- other land classes over the past ten years vices to property is limited. First, most prop- (see Figure 4-2) illustrates the Peninsula's erty taxes support schools. The amount to growing dependence upon residential land support roads, sewer, water, police, fire, uses for revenues. However, it is this same emergency, parks, recreation and other gen- land use that is most costly to service even eral government services is very low. Sec- when developed in a compact fashion. ond, inflationary forces have had severe im- pacts upon the cost of community services, The continuing low density, sprawled de- especially in the areas of education, trans- velopment pattern throughout the Peninsula portation, and health services. Also, the ag- will slowly choke the finances of local juris- ing infrastructure of many communities is in- dictions and the Peninsula as a whole, espe- creasing maintenance and improvement cially if new roads, public sewer, and water costs and absorbing a growing proportion of services are needed. The level of public ser- available service delivery funds. vices will decline and certain services will have to be terminated unless taxes were to In the Leelanau Peninsula, however, the be raised dramatically. land development pattern has and will have as dramatic an effect upon service costs as inflation and increasing maintenance costs. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-3 DRAFT Figure 4-3 Millage Rates of Local Governments in Leelanau County Between 1980 and 1990 El Lowest 50 Average 40 Highest 30 Cn 20 10 ... ... .... 00 0'1 C14 00 CO @2 00 LO Highest @2 00 Average @2 CO CO @2 co C" Lowest Source: Leelanau County Equalization Department @2 00 C" @2 L Lowestj r Ae age v Highest Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-4 DRAFT Millage rates will become more disparate as more developed, wealthier communities increase millages at a higher rate than communities of modest or low incomes in order to meet growing service burdens. The future will bring increased shortages will continue and the gap will widen as the of revenues as service delivery costs rise residents of the wealthier communities ac- and communities struggle to maintain exist- commodate tax increases to assure the con- ing levels of service to existing populations tinuation of services they have come to ex- as well as accommodate the needs of new pect. As this scenario evolves, the Peninsula development and seasonal populations. This will become increasingly divided along com- continuing and increasingly difficult struggle munity economic lines and the income levels will lead to greater pressure for increases in of the households in various jurisdictions. tax millages among the local jurisdictions. This condition will serve to alienate com- Already there is considerable variation in munities from one another and greatly impact the tax millages being levied throughout the the ability of the Peninsula to move into the Peninsula (see Figure 4-3). The past ten 21st century as a unified and proactive force. years has witnessed a disproportionately The tourism industry will undoubtedly re- large gap between the average millage rate spond to these conditions by frequenting the among all jurisdictions and the highest mil- more established communities and thereby lage rates. The highest millage rate in 1990, making the wealthier more wealthy and the 43.7965, was almost 42% higher than the poorer more poor. lowest rate during the same year. This trend Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-5 DRAFT Figure 4-4 Per Capita Allocations by State Departments to Leelanau County for 1985,1987 & 1989 800.00 County Average 700.00 600.00 E3 State Average 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 X 100.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.00 -mo-Nolon.., U) Cn M Q) E-u V) CL) W CU Cn C/) =E Source: Center for the Revitalization of Industrialized States (CRIS), Michigan State University, 1991 Figure 4-5 Per Capita Allocations by State Department to Leelanau County for 1985,1987 & 1989 80 County Average 70 El State Average 60 50 40 30 - 20 0 ... ... 0 += Cn .0 M =E 0 fl Source: Center for the Revitalization of Industrialized States (CRIS), Michigan State Universio,, 1991 Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-6 DRAFT While public service needs will increase, state and federal aid will not proportionately increase. Funding to Leelanau County has in- ages. While increases have been realized, creased for several state programs over the the increases are not keeping pace with the past few years. However, on a per capita rise in costs of providing such services (see basis, Leelanau County receives less than Chapter 6). Additionally, given the state's cur- the state average per capita for revenue rent fiscal constraints and federal shifts in lo- sharing, Department of Management and cal assistance, the County can anticipate Budget-Aging Program, human service, so- relatively less revenue from state and federal cial service, public health, and corrections programs in the future. Assistance dollars will (see Figures 4@4 and 4-5). On a per capita be spread thinner and thinner and, ultimately, basis, transportation and agriculture pay- those needing the services the most will ments are generally higher than state aver- suffer the most. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 4-7 DRAFT Chapter 5 TRANSPORTATION INTRODUCTION The ability to travel by vehicle from one community to another is essential to life as we know it. The automobile dominates our daily activities and households must be able to access a number of communities to meet their employment, schooling, shopping, and associated needs. Along with urban development and rural sprawl, congestion and additional mainte- nance needs have grown. This is as true for the nations superhighways as it is for local pri- mary and secondary roads. Traffic on the Peninsula is growing with the rise of the permanent and seasonal populations. The quality of life on the Peninsula will be negatively impacted if the transportation facilities are not upgraded to meet new demands. However, improved facilities may facilitate even more sprawl. Emerging patterns regarding transportation in the Peninsula include: �The automobile will remain the dominant mode of transportation and is increasing faster than the population. �Traffic levels are increasing Peninsula-wide, although the rates are higher along tradi- tionally lower volume roadways. -The increases in travel time, congestion, and traffic hazards spurred by growth and de- velopment are exacerbated by the circuitous roadway network in the County. �The need for major roadway improvements is increasing while available funds are de- creasing. �Road ends are increasingly serving as public access sites to the area water resources. �Congestion is most apparent in urban and activity centers where seasonal residents compete with permanent residents for parking. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-1 DRAFT Figure 5-1 Leelanau County Vehicle Registration 1984-1990 Vehicle Type Year Motorcycle Commercial Passenger Other TOTAL 1984 372 2603 7661 206 12703 1985 356 2752 8150 2274 13532 1986 351 2873 8565 2412 14201 1987 332 3043 8842 2604 14821 1988 311 3251 9225 2708 15495 1989 288 3356 9381 2698 15723 1990 286 3459 9602 2745 16092 L Source: Michigan Secretary of State. Data issued October 1 of each year. Figure 5-2 Total Valid Vehicle Registrations: 1984 - 1990 30.00%- 25.00%- El State 1984-1990 County 1984-1990 2" 20.00%- C -'4 15.00%- ............. .......... 10.00%- .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ....... ..... 5.00%- ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. 0.00%- Source: Department of State Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-2 DRAFT The number -of single occupancy passenger vehicles will continue to, grow at a faster rate than the population. 16,092 vehicles were registered on the tively limited total population of the Penin- Leelanau Peninsula in 1990 (see Figure 5-1), sula, the limited populations of the villages an increase of 27% since 1984. In contrast, scattered throughout the Peninsula, and the the same time period witnessed an approxi- current employment patterns, do not support mately 10% increase in population growth the feasibility of extensive ride-sharing and and only an 11% increase in state-wide ve- public transit. hicle registrations (see Figure 5-2). Approxi- mately 60% of all registered vehicles in 1990 In addition, the automobile offers tremen- were passenger vehicles. dous opportunities for flexibility and privacy in fulfilling one's transportation needs. This The factor most supportive of a vehicle- convenience, in addition to the relatively low dependent Leelanau Peninsula is the low cost of operation, has positioned the auto- density sprawl development which has and mobile as the foundation of contemporary will continue to dominate. The low density transportation in this country and has dramat- development pattern, characterized by per- ically shaped transportation attitudes. sons living on rural land but working else- where, limits practical opportunities for ride- Forces both nation-wide and those spe- sharing or comprehensive public transit ser- cific to Leelanau Peninsula will fuel the auto- vices. The success of these modes of trans- mobile's continuation as the dominant mode portation are dependent upon large numbers of transportation throughout the Peninsula of persons in close proximity and with com- and well into the next century. mon daily transportation needs. The rela- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-3 DRAFT Figure 5-3 Annual Vehicle Miles on State Trunkline in Leelanau County (in millions of miles) 100 90 .......... ...... .......... 80 . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . ............. . . ........ 70 60 .............................. ............... 50 .... ..... .. 40 ............. 30 .............. 20 ............. 10 ............. . .... .. . ............ ........... . 0 1970 1980 1990 Source: Michigan Dept of Transportation, HPMS Program Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-4 DRAFT Significant decreases in the level of service of both primary and secondary roadway corridors will be experienced as traffic volumes continue to increase. As growth and development continues, requires an urban level of service. The instal- increased demands will be placed upon the lation of the first traffic light in the County in Peninsuld's roadway network. Annual vehicle Greilickville this summer is indicative of this miles traveled on state trunklines in the need. Traffic counts of 4,000 to 6,000 vehi- Peninsula have steadily risen since 1970 cles daily along stretches of M-22 further (see Figure 5-3) and increased by 15% be- northward greatly impact the corridor's level tween 1980 and 1990. This trend can be ex- of service and threaten the character of that pected to continue. scenic area. Of the approximately 125 average daily Though M-22 commands the greatest traffic counts recorded along the Peninsula's levels of traffic in the Peninsula, it is not ex- roadway network between 1988 and 1990, periencing the greatest percent increases in just over half were recorded at levels of traffic volumes and herein lies a critical 1,000 vehicles per day or less. These levels dilemma. Many of the roadways which are are relatively low. These low volume paved experiencing some of the greatest rates of roadway segments will most likely be able to increase in traffic volumes are not designed accommodate additional increases in traffic and constructed to accommodate these in- without significant losses in levels of service. crease. For example, the traffic volumes However, gravel roads cannot tolerate this along Lee Point Road, a local road in Bing- level of daily use without frequent road grad- ham Township have increased by more than ing. 300% since 1987. Numerous primary road- ways are experiencing similar increases yet On the other hand, key roadway seg- are not designed to accommodate the ap- ments on state highways are at or approach- proaching volumes. ing levels of service which seriously under- mine the efficiency of the corridors as well as Roadways in the Peninsula Which have public health and safety. M-22 clearly illus- traditionally experienced low traffic volumes trates this circumstance. Average daily traffic will begin to witness increased flows. Road- counts approached nearly 22,000 in the ways currently experiencing high traffic vol- proximity of Traverse City in 1989. Con- umes will become more and more congested sidering the lack of passing lanes along M- and the level of service will decline. 22, its curvilinear nature and limited sight dis- tances in selected areas, this level of traffic Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-5 DRAFT Figure 5-4 Leelanau County Traffic Accidents 700- 600- 500- 400- ................ .... ................... ... ........... 100- 0- ... 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: Michi gan State Police Worldng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-6 DRAFT Travel time will lengthen and traffic safety will become increasingly threatened at rates proportionally higher than area population growth. Though the Peninsula's population in- sulting increases in traffic volumes. Additional creased by approximately 18% between roadway intersections serving future 1980 and 1990, traffic accidents within the subdivisions will further interfere with the ef- Peninsula increased by nearly 46% over the ficient movement of traffic on primary roads. same time period (see Figure 5-4). This dis- Additional driveways providing ingress and proportionate increase in accidents will con- egress to strip residential and commercial tinue as traffic volumes and congestion con- development will further threaten declining tinue to heighten. The increased volumes of safety levels. traffic on the roads will contribute to higher rates of accidents as maneuvering within the Safety hazards will not be restricted to traffic flows becomes more difficult, driver vehicle passengers. Bicycling is growing in stress levels rise, and stop-and-go move- popularity in the Peninsula. The limited width ment patterns increase. of many of the Peninsula's roads and shoul- ders already creates safety hazards for bicy- However, increases in traffic volumes will clers, joggers, and walkers. Increased traffic not be the sole reason for increased rates of volumes will further intensify these hazards. accidents in the Peninsula. The hilly terrain, curvilinear road alignments, limited sight dis- Travel time will noticeably lengthen even tances and narrow roadway shoulder widths with marginal traffic increases in some areas, on many of the road segments in the Penin- since many roads are very hilly and full of sula will exacerbate increased traffic volumes curves with slow speed limits and few options and safety hazards. for passing slow moving vehicles. While this does not pose a serious problem for tourists, Also, increased land development will fur- it does for commuters and commerce. ther impact roadway safety beyond the re- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-7 DRAFT Figure 5-5 PRIMARY 'ROAD MAP LEELANAU COUNTY MICHIGAN Sold Rout@ Markers (D U.S. Numbered Highermy 0 blich.liart state ".9hospy X- [IM LooloAGU Counly Route Political Boundaries Lignilloom.. ------- County aoundo y Tmashlor Boundary j I:zz= Vdiarg. Cor:wol- Lisnit N aw-mmila UninCOrPw led T CL VU,x This map was Prepared by Tsmothy J. Dolohonty, Cartographer, Lasionou County Planning Department, Leland. falrAISGn. a a N.,Ikp.,t point Revised to July 1. 1986. 1-1- llolorlh.pwt T-ship 22 adult island *so 110 New mile.mon loolft Leland rommkorkest"A Township 0*0 Carp Al..f Silawa pPoial 64 to 0 T"nhip Due Soillauss Lak 9.194. also, Pal.1 L.A. Point Sultans Bay id an L.A. 4%, harbor Dal short &a" lovest 21 Lifor To ..'a Sleeping .he Tlltrp" Arin fill- A-0 say L.A. N an 6 F= i Grand T....wp L Al I Llm. T ip 22 L.A., lead Traverse 91 he 14l, 4 Day take Meet City 4 22 Wand North as, 17 6 4 dickvia. c.d.. take Soulh:ar i- Ko- fouch Los T- V.-hip to kao.h.. cloW.9 igmo Sol a fiss-d 12 L... T.-hip c.d., to E mpire Arl* "A. Gila 0 ITZ.,,o* a D L. A Cli D.W. 12 Shill., .81 2 Wells oil G1.1lick.40. A- ..! '... H.,f Lose Lee* Glenn 12 cii- r ..... cook Grand Traverse County Area Benz Is County take T j "on Cl, to Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-8 DRAFT Future transportation funding will not be sufficient to resolve the inadequacies of the Peninsula's roadway network. Though detailed solutions to the problems (especially on M-72), provision of adequate facing the roadway network are far from be- shoulders for vehicular and bike use, and ing identified, it is clear that the solutions general maintenance of pavement surfaces. must be comprehensive in nature and in- clude both maintenance initiatives as well as The County is currently experiencing fi- major new improvements. nancial problems in its attempt to maintain the current roadway network. Increased road At present, the Peninsula's primary road- improvements, particularly those that are way network is based upon the peripheral most needed, will require massive amounts corridors of M-22 and M-72, providing access of money for engineering studies, land ac- into the Peninsula to the north and west re- quisition, and construction. While the alloca- spectively (see Figure 5-5). The network of tion of transportation dollars to the Township interior roads is inconsistent and does not has been steadily increasing, it is not suffi- permit efficient and timely east-west or north- cient to offset the tremendous financial costs south passage. Traveling across the interior associated with such projects. Without in- of the Peninsula requires following an awk- creases in local taxes in conjunction with en- ward, circuitous, and stop-and-go route. The tering into long term debt service, the County tremendous costs associated with making may not be able to effectively address the improvements to address future needs will Peninsula's transportation needs in the time make their likelihood very small. frame necessary. Without a significant in- crease in the state gasoline tax very soon, Other major road improvements neces- the likelihood of such resources is very lim- sary to resolve critical transportation needs ited. include realignment of key intersections Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-9 DRAFT Figure 5-6 PUBLIC ROAD-END WATER ACCESS POINTS LEELANAU COUNTY, MICHIGAN got LAT PUBLIC ROAD-END WATER ACCESS POINT NO;'TWW BAY ME QXV MWOR my LIME TR4 RSf* r SLEEPING 8EM AWK, BA Y GL LVE NEST ARm *A@RrH BAR LAKE aW TRA WRSE 84 Y ----------- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5- 10 DRAFT Parking and congestion problems will increase in the urban centers and key activity centers as tourism grows. The existing urban centers (mostly vil- parking practices, hazardous conditions to lages) throughout the Peninsula are compar- the public health, safety, and welfare, and in- atively small. Parking is generally limited to creases in traffic volumes and noise along the streets with few parking lots situated in or neighboring residential streets. near the retail areas. At present, parking within these downtown areas can be difficult As tourism grows and year round devel- during the warmer months of the year and opment continues, these conditions will particularly during special events. This situa- worsen. tion not only adds to the congestion in these communities but often results in illegal Increased conflicts will evolve between visitors and waterfront property owners along road ends. The Leelanau Peninsula abounds with along the waterfront adjacent to the road inland lakes. Though there are numerous ends. public access points to most of the lakes throughout the Peninsula, public access is af- For many such property owners, these forded to many residents and visitors by road road ends contribute to increased noise lev- ends (see Figure 5-6). Allowing for public ac- els, invasion and/or destruction of property, cess via these road ends is a policy strongly and the loss of privacy. As the Peninsula's upheld by the Leelanau County Road Com- population and tourism industry grow, this mission. Along with the merits of such a pol- conflict will only heighten. Yet it is clearly in icy come negative impacts to those residing the public interest to maintain these public access sites. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 5-11 DRAFT Chapter 6 COMMUNITY SERVICES INTRODUCTION Community services in Leelanau County are currently limited. Given the growth and change in structure of the County's population, need and demand for services will increase. Service needs may range from additional public safety to a wider variety of human services. An issue in future service provision includes accessibility; linking those with service needs to the service providers. Emerging patterns in community service provision include: � Community leaders and the citizenry are recognizing potential needs for additional com- munity services (e.g., education, health, recreation). � An older population is becoming established in the County that is accustomed to urban- ized levels of service. � Demand on fire and police services is rising. � Youth services are limited in the County and needs for them appear to be increasing. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-1 DRAFT Figure 6-1 Select General Fund Expenditures Substance Abuse El Mental Health Board 120000 El Social Services 100000 El Commission on Aging 80000 - Parks and Recreation 60000 40000 20000 IN 77 0.- @L ....; :,:, 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Source: Leelanau County Planning Department MOM! Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-2 DRAFT While the need for additional community services is recognized, the financial support to provide them is not there. Results of the Leelanau County citizen - Need for affordable accessible health survey, leadership survey, the Leelanau and emergency care services. Children's Report, and growth management - An increased number of individuals forums all recognize the potential need for "falling through the cracks" of human more community and human services in the service programs (e.g., health care, County. Additionally, it is recognized that fis- public assistance) because of reduc- cal and technical resources are limited to tions in state and federal support. provide such services, given budget con- straints at the state, county and local level. - Transportation problems of the needy and the inability for them to reach ser- Some of the recurring issues found in vice centers. these reports and discussions with human - Lack of affordable housing and a need service providers include: to rehabilitate older housing stock, par- � Economic disparity in the County-the ticularly rental housing. widening margin between the more af- - Need for more activities for teens. fluent in-migrants and less affluent resi- - Perceived lack of law enforcement. In- dent population. creasing crime rates, but not crack- � Need for more public recreational and downs. cultural opportunities. With the increase and change in profile of � Lack of good job opportunities for those the County's population, sophisticated ser- graduating from high school. vice needs and demand will likely outstrip the � Family breakdown (e.g., single parent professional and fiscal capabilities of local households) and parental substance units of government. Even now, several re- abuse. gionally-based human service agencies and churches are relied upon to provide for hu- � Cultural and social barriers to accepting man service needs in the County. It is likely assistance (i.e., failure to link those in that intergovernmental cooperation will play a need with available help because of critical role in future community service pro- negative perceptions associated with vision. taking advantage of assistance pro- grams). Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-3 0 cn 0 cn 0 Bingham CbN Township Centerville . ...... ... Township Cleveland cx Township Elmwood Township Empire Township ..... Empire Village ......................... .................... . . Greilickville co ..... CPD ...... . Glen Arbor . . ....... Township Kasson Township Leelanau Township Leland ............. ........ ............. ................ .................................. Township ... .........-...... . ....... Northport ....... ... Village Solon Township Suttons Bay Township Suttons Bay . . . ........... .. ........... . ........... .............. Village ............ ............. .. . . ............ ,: . ............ ...... ... ............ ............ ............ X: .... ............. Traverse City DRAFT An older population will place more demands on community service systems, in particular, health care and emergency services. Because of its small size, rural nature and - etc.) and they will Jikely expect to receive limited budget, Leelanau County and its local such services, since similar results have oc- units of government have not provided a high curred in many other northern counties. level of services to residents. Demand for more sophisticated services will likely result An aspect that should also be considered because of the magnitude and character of when dealing with an older population is that population changes in the county. The major- of school support. Oftentimes school districts ity of the County's population increase can be have trouble garnering political support for attributed to in-migration. Many new resi- school taxes from households who do not dents are retirees relocating from urban ar- have children in the school system. eas that provide a relatively high level of services (police, fire, health care, recreation, Working Paper #5 - TreZ Future' Page 6-5 DRAFT Figure 6-3 Human Service Agencies in Leelanau County American Red Cross Leellanau County Probate Court Northport Senior Mealsite County Road 616, Route 1, Box 12 Courthouse Trinity Church, 105 Warren Glen Arbor, MI 49636 Leland, MI 49654 Northport, MI 49670 (616)334-4261 (616)256-9803 (616)946-2720 Child and Adult Protective Services Leelanau County Youth and Peshawbestown Senior Mealsite 102 S. Madison Substance Abuse and Leelanau Immaculate Conception Church Suttons Bay, M1 49682 County Probate Court M-22 Peshawbostown (616)271-3442 Courthouse Suttons Bay, M 149682 Leland, MI 49654 (616)271-3018 Grand Traverse Band of (616)256-7783 Ottawa/Chippewa Indians St. Rita's Church Route 1, Box 135 Leelanau Memorial Hospital 8707 Hill Street Suttons Bay, MI 49682 213 S. High Street Maple City, MI 49664 (616)271-3538 Northport, MI 49670 (616)228-5823 (616)386-5101 Holy Rosary Church Suftons Bay Airea Schools 3919 Gatzke Road Leland United Methodist Church P.O. Box 367 Cedar, MI 49621 106 N. Fourth Street Suttons Bay, M11 49682 (616)228-5429 Leland, MI 49654 (616)271-3846 (616)256-9088 Lake Leelanau Mealsite Suttons Bay Lake Leelanau Fire Hall, Old 204 Maple City Senior Mealsite Congregational Church Lake Leelanau, MI 49653 Lion's Club Madison & Lincoln, P.O. Box 70 (616)256-9611 County Road 616 Suftons Bay, M11 49682 Maple City, MI 49664 (616)271-6036 Leelanau County 86th District Court P.O. Box 578, Courthouse Maple Valley Nursing Home Suffons Bay Senior Mealsite Leland, MI 49654 of Maple City, Inc. Suttons Bay-Birigham Fire Hall (616)256-9931 Route 2, Box 7 St. Mary's Maple City, MI 49664 Suftons Bay, MI 49682 Leelanau County (616)228-5895 (616)271-3520 Commission on Aging 209 St. Mary's, P.O. Box 192 MSU-Cooperative United Methodist Church Lake Leelanau, MI 49653 Extension Service 106 North Fourth Street (616)256-7590 116 Phillips Leland, MI 49654 Lake Leelanau, M 149653 (616)256-9088 Leelanau County Department (616)256-9888 of Social Services USDA-Agri. Stabilization P.O. Box 427 Northport Evangelical & Conservation Service Suttons Bay, M 149682 Covenant Church Old 204 (616)271-3442 409 Shabwasung, P.O. Box 367 Lake Leelanau, MI 49653 Northport, MI 49670 (616)256-9791 (616)386-7362 Woddng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-6 j DRAFT Needs of those with low incomes will increase as cost of living rises inthe County. As indicated previously, the percentage of recruited or served because of transportation the County's population receiving public as- problems. sistance is generally low, approximately 6% Accessibility and transportation problems (see Figure 1-21 in Chapter 1). The number are recurring issues in Leelanau County hu- of recipients have fluctuated between 1982 man service provision. As with many rural and 1990 from a low of 812 in 1986 to a high communities, identifying and reaching those of 924 in 1990. While the percentage of total in need is more difficult because of cultural population below poverty level has de- barriers and the dispersed nature of rural creased, consistent numbers of individuals populations. Many of the service agencies in on public assistance suggest that this per- the region are actually based in Traverse centage is lower only because additional City, or other counties, where they may have persons of affluence have migrated into the limited utility to Leelanau County residents County. because of accessibility problems. Of the 238 service agencies listed for the 10-county re- Northwest Michigan Human Service gion, 24 are located in Leelanau. Many of Agency, Inc. (NWMHSA) acts as an umbrella these are churches (see Figure 6-3). agency for Leelanau County human service needs. The agency serves nine other coun- Department of Public Health, Community ties as both a service provider and regional Mental Health, Commission on Aging and liaison for a variety of human service groups. United Way are operated on a multi-county NWMHSA's primary programs are Head level. The County Department of Social Ser- Start, meals on wheels, home weatherization vices (DSS) often turns to multi-unit service and food distribution. In general, needs and agencies based in Traverse City for client demand for these services run high. For ex- assistance. Red Cross and Salvation Army ample, the Head Start program has a contin- have local contacts in the County and often ual waiting list. This year they will increase coordinate with DSS and other service the class size from 20 to 30 and run two providers to stretch limited resources. Sev- classes a day, rather than one. In addition to eral churches also provide vital assistance the waiting list, many children are simply not through food banks. Child care and child service needs for households in poverty will increase. According to the 1991 Leelanau Chil- holds and/or widows who may be in need of dren's report, there is a need to increase assistance. In 1980, nearly one-fifth of all services to youth in the county. Changing families (19%) were comprised of a female- family structure ( i.e., increases in single par- headed householder with no husband pre- ent households) and increasing economic sent. Data for 1990 is not yet available. and domestic pressures of those with low in- comes puts increased stress on youth. Hu- Investment in the County's youth is seen man service providers are concerned with as a critical need to head off some of the the number of female-headed households more critical social problems of the chroni- with no husband present. This generally in- cally underprivileged. dicates the number of single-parent house- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-7 DRAFT Figure 6-4 Leelanau County Warrant Statistics El Felony 300 Juvenile Felony 250 Misdemeanor Im! Juvenile Misdemeanor 200 75 AbUse/Neglect 150 - 100 - - 50 - .771 L-4 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Source: Leelanau County Sherilfs Dept Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-8 DRAFT Fire, emergency response, police calls and public annoyance crimes (trespassing, dis- orderly conduct and vandalism) will increase with additional seasonal population in- creases, As can be seen by Figure 6-4, crime Currently, jail capacity is 19 persons. The statistics in the County have fluctuated con- jail has had days over capacity every year siderably since 1981. There is no real trend since 1982. In 1990, there were a total of 158 pointing toward increases in reported crimes. days that the jail was at or over capacity However, community surveys and growth (43% of the time). While this is the most seri- management forums reflect a perceived in- ous overcrowding recorded, there have been crease in crime and an associated lack of en- 75, 87 and 47 days over capacity in 1985, forcement in the County. As seasonal popu- 1986 and 1987 respectively. This condition lations increase, however, crimes such as has now been persistent enough, for long vandalism, trespassing and disorderly con- enough that additional jail facilities will likely duct will increase. need to be constructed soon. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 6-9 DRAFT Chapter 7 INFRASTRUCTURE INTRODUCTION The extent to which infrastructure exists within a geographic region can have a dramatic impact upon the current and future character of the area. Community infrastructure may in- clude nothing more than basic private services such as electricity, gas, and phone service. On the other hand, and where funds are sufficient to meet the cost, public sanitary sewer, water and storm sewer infrastructure may be introduced. Such infrastructure can resolve or prevent public health problems and foster economic development. The unplanned expansion of in- frastructure can also dramatically and negatively change the character of a community and region. At present, with the exception of roads (see Chapter 6) the infrastructure on the Lee- lanau Peninsula is quite limited though the future is in question. Emerging trends include the following: � The current sprawl pattern of land development minimizes the pressure for new or ex- panded public infrastructure systems. � New public infrastructure systems to serve existing developed areas are relatively costly due to the small population centers and limited cost sharing opportunities. Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 7-1 DRAFT Figure 7-1 "aw. Pays a,"* INFRASTRUCTURE Map Source: ".T.1 was I&L"o Leelanau Coudty Poad MaO %11 433 Of %6 04410 w"dow,11L."s L 9 1. LMd I.*. w % L.N. Ic I.- N z Sam N&WM GLAW, 6-2 an- 99 L 9 a lot a a v a a v -0e 441 a "I -7 A7,g a"" a" ,an a's a.. XK "K.X. MIN, V "a L 0 a 9-6. S Fj I'at 0 1 2 3 M I L E S LEGEND LEELANAU COUNTY AREAS WITH NATURAL GAS SERVICE S EXISTING SEWEKSYSTEM from Michigan Consolidated Gas Co, S* NEW-SEWEFt-S`YSTEM diff(ts W-IT-H-- P-U-B----L, IC WATE--R -WH-OLV COUNTYIS SERVED BY ELECTRIC: Cherry Land Rural Electric Corp. or Consumers Power TELEPHONE: Century or Michigan Bell Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 7-2 DRAFT Infrastructure will play a limited, but increasing role in the Peninsula as urbanization continues. The Peninsula is only partially served with tion of public infrastructure in the near future. basic infrastructure. Only electrical and The reasons include: phone service are available throughout all areas of the Peninsula. Gas service is avail- Though urbanization is increasing able in the eastern one-third of the County. throughout the Peninsula, the predomi- Municipal water systems serve Empire, nant low density sprawl development Northport and Sutton's Bay. Public sewer pattern minimizes the current need for system is available in Suttons Bay, and public infrastructure (except roads). Leelanau Township expects to begin construction of a public lagoon system in the The cost of providing infrastructure to a fall of 1991 to primarily serve Leland (see low density development pattern is very Figure 7-1). high while public financial resources are quite limited. As urbanization increases, pressures to introduce or -expand existing infrastructure Current local land use planning and usually also increase. For example, with ur- zoning programs do not systematically banization comes significant increases in link new development with the planned concentrated water runoff flows. Stormwater expansion (or introduction) of public in- infrastructure is necessary to control flooding frastructure. and protect water resources from runoff laiden with sedimentation and other impuri- The seasonal variation in population ties. Higher densities of development may throughout the Peninsula, and the re- preclude the use of on-site facilities for sulting abbreviated period when infras- sewage disposal or potable water. Public tructure improvements may be per- sewer, water, and stormwater infrastructure ceived as most beneficial, and who are often both the prerequisite for increased should pay for those benefits, may de- levels of urbanization and solutions to lay decisions to commit to a public in- evolving public health risks. frastructure system. The Leelanau Peninsula presents circum- stances which will strongly limit the introduc- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 7-3 DRAFT Figure 7-2 .......... Unplanned Growth Planned Growth WorWng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 7-4 DRAFT The provision of new infrastructure in existing villages will be more costly, and hence less likely, than the provision of new facilities as a part of new large scale develop- ment. The irony of the above projection may not of the new tax base to the local government be apparent. Digging up existing streets to in- often outweighs the identified costs, because stall sewer lines or storm drains is often more they are born by other governmental agen- costly than sinking them on virgin land as cies who have little or no say in the decision. part of a new development. Yet incremental expansion of existing villages generally has However, at some unknown point, the far less negative impacts on the environment, density of development in various areas will roads, and other public services (such as either warrant or require public infrastructure, police and fire) and usually results in a but the number of users served will still be so smaller loss of valued open space. New large low that the cost will be very high per user. scale development, when located apart from This will occur first with roads (see Chapter existing developed areas on the other hand, 6), next with sewers around inland lakes and generally can be serviced by on-site in existing villages. Though new facilities may 'Package" private sewer and water systems, not be built, the issue of infrastructure ex- in a cost effective manner, but secondary im- pansion will evolve as a significant planning pacts on roads, the environment and the in- consideration and, at least indirectly, have an troduction of a major new activity center in a increasing impact on local planning decisions low density area become public costs not and programs. typically borne by the developer. The allure Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 7-5 DRAFT Chapter 8 INTRODUCTION ENVIRONMENT It is the splendor of the natural environment on the Leelanau Peninsula that annually at- tracts scores of tourists as well as a growing number of retirees and commuters to establish permanent residence. Yet, as the permanent and seasonal populations increase, the risk of environmental degradation also increases. The abundance of fish and wildlife and the vitality of vegetation is only as great as the surrounding environment will support. While many mea- sures have been taken to protect the environment of the Peninsula, and many more are pos- sible, the quality of the air, land and water is also impaired by human activities many hundreds of miles away. The future quality of the environment on the Peninsula must not be taken for granted. While it currently is among the best in the state, it has a fragile foundation. The soils are largely sandy (and hence porous)-easily susceptible to surface contamination and a ready conduit for pollution of groundwater from hazardous chemicals. The air supply is heavily influ- enced by land use activities in the Lake Michigan Basin and increasingly includes pollutants carded from hundreds of miles away. Lake Michigan continues to serve as a dumping ground for a wide variety of chemical pollutants which make their way into fish and other wildlife far- ther up the food chain--4ncluding humans. Specific patterns which are emerging include: � Air quality continues to decline due largely to land use activities hundreds of miles away within the Lake Michigan Basin. � Sprawl-like development is the leading threat to the quality of land and water resources. � Surface waters are vulnerable to contamination due to the lack of a coordinated stormwater management program. � New sites of groundwater contamination are being discovered. � Significant losses of sensitive environments (wetlands, sand dunes, floodplains, high risk erosion areas, shorelines) are continuing from many small incremental encroachments. � Solid waste disposal is not the huge problem it is in most counties for the foreseeable future, but is likely to be later unless a stronger multi-county solid waste disposal alliance is created. Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8- 1 DRAFT Figure 8-1 -KFY HAVE V-EC-ENTLY EXC-ZZPLD EEOZOMM SMANDAWS CAAK anistique cA. I"ce MENO Petoskey chavievol LVI Ix Leland Greenecy WISCONSIN MIC-1-116AN till%ftukee Grand No OTTA%,v,, 0 Kcicane ILJ MIAN ILLIN015 CmIcAtto EN j@ ckuly Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-2 DRAFT Air quality levels will remain high throughout the Peninsula, though pollution from hundreds of miles away will continue to lower air quality. The most extensive public air quality. local air quality. Preliminary results of a multi- monitoring program in Michigan, operated by state air pollution study suggest that major the Air Quality Division of the MDNR, does concentrations of smog are crossing Lake not maintain a permanent monitoring site for Michigan from the Greater Chicago area and Leelanau County. As a result, no long term significantly heightening ozone levels along air quality statistics are available for the shoreline areas of Michigan. The preliminary Peninsula. However, this attests to the exist- results of a temporary ozone monitoring sta- ing high air quality in the County as monitors tion established as part of this study near the are usually only placed in counties containing Village of Empire, suggest federal standards significant air pollution sources. Counties were exceeded three times between June without a monitoring station are presumed to and August of 1991. The Garden Peninsula, be in compliance with air quality standards northwest of Leelanau Peninsula in the Up- (except ozone, which is a regional pollutant). per Peninsula exceeded federal ozone stan- The nearest counties to Leelanau which have dards during the summer of 1991 as well been monitored, though not regularly nor for (see Figure 8-1). Federal sanctions can be all pollutants, are Charlevoix and Grand levied upon communities which exceed Traverse and findings there have always at- ozone standards in excess of one violation tested to high air quality levels. per four year average. Industrial and vehicular emissions are the Ozone is a pollutant formed when certain principal causes of air pollution. Thus, the vehicular and industrial pollutants react in the biggest threat to future air quality in the presence of heat and sunlight. The ozone Peninsula come from three possible sources: gas is an irritant and causes respiratory 1) a new large heavy industrial complex or problems in humans. incinerator in or near the County, 2) many more vehicles using the roads and/or 3) air Acid rain may also pose a future threat. pollutants which migrate long distances. Acid rain refers to rainwater which is acidic because of air pollutants. It can damage Though the future extent of industrial de- forests and increase the pH in surface waters velopment in or near the County is unknown, to the point that fish cannot survive. Little is vehicle emissions can be expected to in- presently documented about the extent of crease with population growth, tourism, and damage if any, caused by acid rain in the expansion of retail and commercial services Peninsula. However, data gathered on (increasing the number of vehicle trips, vehi- Beaver Island shows a nine year average pH cle miles, and congestion). Reductions in the of 4.2 and a 1989 (most recent year) average permitted level of vehicular emissions which of 5.0. "Pure" rain water has a pH value of may be brought about by new federal stan- approximately 5.6, precipitation with a pH dards (currently being developed) may be below that number is considered to be acidic. offset by an increasing number of vehicles in The source of acid rain is suspected to be in- the County. dustrial activities, often burning low sulphur coal, hundreds of miles away. At this point, it appears it is industrial emissions from urban centers outside of the state which pose the greatest threat to the Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-3 DROT Figure 8-2 MAJOR WATERWAYS LEELANAU COUNTY, MICHIGAN Ciallread A3y A. Mud Lake Xthl Lake Garthe Pond Nothport Grand Twerse Bay Bay Lake michigan Perennial Rivers, Creeks and Streams Ingalls Bay 1,ake Ban Intermittent Creeks and Streams & mou \j gey Lake Omena Bay Lake Leelonau A.% Duck LIalte@PPV-mofff Pond Hidden Lake Good Harbor Bay Skff Lake r Narada Lau Sleeping Bear Bass Lake Sdmal Lake HendlYX Lake Bay Lode Traverse Lake .411 1 Cherry Tucker Lake School Lake Cove Day MIMI P0 FIsher Lake #LIM La.b.1 Glen I Brooks 14ke West Ann Grand Tmyerse Bay North Bar Lake Dow Lake South Bar Lake j 'Bright Lake Taylor Lake Gilben Lake Pollack Lake .1\ Cedar Lake Wells Lake! % 0 Hart Lake -Armstrong Lake I Shisler Lake Cook Lake Davis La*e @Nb\,41po,.l Inj Work Paper #5 -Trend Future Page 8-4 DRAFT The existing high surface water quality of inland lakes and streams may be reduced as new development occurs in the absence of a coordinated stormwater management program. Though comprehensive programs of wa- segments not designated as trout streams ter quality testing have only recently been include Shalda or Sucker Creek at the initiated, data generated over the past 15 Narada Lake outlet and the Crystal River be- years document relatively high water quality tween Fisher Dam and Glen Lake. No rivers levels throughout the Peninsula. This is par- or streams in the County have lost "trout ticularly true in the Peninsula's inland lakes. stream" designation. Of the eight major Peninsula inland lakes evaluated by the MDNR since 1982, all but There are no health advisories against full one have been classified as oligotrophic- body contact in Peninsula waters, nor any highest of three quality ratings attainable. advisories against eating fish caught in any The majority of these lakes are, however, in lake or stream within the County. There are the upper range of this classification and are health advisories against consumption of near or at borderline mesotrophic conditions. lake trout and salmon caught in Lake Michi- School Lake is the only lake evaluated which gan or Traverse Bay, but these apply to all received a mesotrophic rating. The more eu- Lake Michigan waters. trophic a lake, the more nutrients (and hence plant life) it has. A mesotrophic lake has There are only four entities presently dis- more nutrients than an oligotrophic lake, and charging treated liquid waste via approved a eutrophic lake the most of all. NPDES permits. All discharges are to Lake Michigan or Grand Traverse Bay. Current conditions of the Peninsula's streams do not uniformly suggest the same The future quality of the Peninsula's water high quality. Studies prepared during the past resources will be impacted by pollutants dis- ten years and as recently as 1990 have iden- charged directly to surface waters. Concerns tified streams of high quality, including the for and threats to these water resources will Crystal River, as well as streams of lower heighten as future residential development quality such as Houdek Creek which are car- escalates the use of lawn fertilizer and pesti- rying elevated levels of nutrients such as ni- cides. These pollutants and others from agri- trates and phosphorous. cultural operations could damage Peninsula- wide ecosystems, as well as the continued However, relatively speaking, the water marketability of the Peninsula as a tourist quality of rivers and streams in the Peninsula destination. Pressure upon lake and stream is very high. Nearly all the streams and major shoreline areas for future development will tributaries are designated trout steams. compromise area water quality unless very carefully designed and sited in accordance Trout require clean, cold, oxygenated wa- with coordinated stormwater management ter to survive and are a good indicator regulations. species of water quality. The only stream Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-5 DRAFT Figure 8-3 SITES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION 23 LEELANAU COUNTY, MICHIGAN 19 0404 7 3 18 9 13 2 t2 21 6 17 24 11 5 15 22 8 LIST OF SITES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION 1 Commercial wells - Cedar 13. PeplinskiFarrn 2. Elmwood Township Dump 14. Residential well - Maple City 3. Frigid Foods Farms 15. Residential well - Elmwood Township 4. Fuel Oil Spill - Leelanau Twp. 16. Residential well - Centerville Twp. 5. Glen's Sanitary Landfill 17. Speedway Station 6. Grand Traverse Overall Supply 18. Standard Gas Station 7. Groundwater Contamination - Leland 19. Stowe Oil Co. 8. Holiday station 20. Sunoco Quick Mart 9. Konieczka Cottage 21. Taghon's Service 10. Leelanau County Road Commission 22. Total Pet, Inc. Marine Terminal Maple City 23. Vulcan Cincinnati, Inc. 11. Leelanau County Landfill 24. Zephyr, Inc. 12. Leelanau County Road Commission - Suttons Bay S ume. Afkfton Sftw of Ent,*onmental Contandhadon o Act 307, EnWromnonto/ Raspons* Divbkn, Mchigan Dopeftmetit of Natural Resources March, 199 YJ Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-6 DRAFT The identification of new sites of groundwater contamination will result In new efforts to clean up existing sites of contamination and to prevent future ones. * All residents and visitors of Leelanau ered daily in Michigan. With the largely sandy Peninsula are dependent upon groundwater soils on the Peninsula and the ready conduits resources for their potable water supply. The sandy soils present for groundwater contam- vast majority of the population reside in sin- ination, it is unlikely that all existing sites of gle family homes and each household de- contamination have as yet been discovered. rives its potable water by an on-site private well. This condition, in the face of increasing The highly vulnerable soils of the Penin- land development and natural soil conditions, sula require the use of careful measures will present growing challenges for the when establishing new facilities using haz- assurance of a quality groundwater resource. ardous chemicals. Similarly, other potential pollutant sources, such as septic systems, Annually the DNR publishes a list of need to be carefully sited and regularly ser- known sites of surface soil and -groundwater viced and inspected. contamination in Michigan. Known as the 307 list (from PA 307 which requires compiling Likewise, existing contamination sites the registry), it is the leading record of sur- need to be cleaned up to prevent the spread face and subsu 'rface contamination. As of of pollutants over a wider area and to prevent March 1991, there were 24 sites in Leelanau the eventual contamination of surface water. County on the 307 list (see Figure 8-3). While Unfortunately, the low density sprawl and lin- this is only 0.0085% of all the sites statewide ear development patterns along County (2837), one of these sites is on the federal roads which characterize the Peninsula, cre- CERCLA list of the top 79 in Michigan (Grand ate cost prohibitive conditions for the estab- raverse Overall Supply, a dry cleaning es- lishment of more sophisticated public sewage tablishment). While many of these sites in- treatment facilities which could reduce the volve pollution from old industrial activities, threat of groundwater contamination. gas stations and facilities using hazardous chemicals, new sites are still being discov- Woddng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-7 DRAFT SENSITIVE ENVIRONMENTS LEELANAU COUNTY, MICHIGAN Wetland Areas Critical Dune Areas ------------- Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-8 z DRAFT Decreases in the quality and quantity of sensitive environments, including wetlands, woodlands, shoreline and dune areas, will likely occur with future growth. Sensitive environments such as sand decreased by nearly _. While this loss of dunes and shorelines are often areas highly wetlands may not be wholly attributable to attractive for development, or in the case of the urban development trend, it does illus- wetlands (and sometimes floodplains or high trate the pressure which the growing Penin- risk erosion areas), unrecognized for the val- sula is placing upon sensitive and irreplace- ues that they possess (see Figure 8-4). State able natural environments. As development laws regulate, but do not prohibit, develop- continues, whether it be of a low or high ment in many sensitive environments. State density character, wetlands and similar laws have their greatest beneficial impact on sensitive environments will increasingly find large projects. Some activities which are de- themselves being encroached upon, de- structive in sensitive environments are ex- stroyed, and degraded. empt from most regulation, such as agricul- ture and forestry. These special resources play critical roles in the character and quality of life in the However, the greatest threat to sensitive Peninsula. Water purification and animal environments comes from the cumulative ef- habitats provided by wetlands and wood- fect of many small actions over a long period lands will be diminished as will scenic vistas of time. These include small fills for beach, of hillsides, shoreline and dune areas, and land shaping for views, or drainage modifica- tourist generating features. It will take a well tions. Over time, significant amounts of sen- coordinated effort by all jurisdictions in the sitive environments can be lost. For example, County to protect these sensitive environ- preliminary figures indicate that while urban- ments. ized land acreage increased by nearly 38% between 1977 and 1990, wetland acreage Working Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-9 DRAFT Figure 8-5 Leelanau County Projected Waste Stream (Tons/Day) Unit Waste 1982 1987 1992 2007 Generation Rate (lb/capita/day) Permanent Population 14,143 151428 16,525 20,300 Seasonally Adjusted 18,723 30,000 32,000 39,000 Population Organics Newsprint 0.9 2.2 2.3 2. -0.1 -Office Paper 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.0 -Corrugated 2.7 6.3 6.7 8.3 0.4 -Yard Waste 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 -0.0 -Textiles 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.0 -Plastic 1.9 3.2 3.4 4.2 0.2 -Maaazines 0.0 1.6 1.7 2.1 -0.1 -Food Waste 2.4 3.8 4.0 5.0 0.3 Wood 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 0.1 -Fines 0.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 0.1 Other Organics 5.9 6.4 6.9 8.5 0.4 Inorganics Glass 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.1 -Ferrous 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.4 0.2 -Non-ferrous 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 Other Inorganics 0.5 0.3 0'.3 0.4 0.0 Total 20.6 33.0 351.3 43.3 2.2 Wofkng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page B-10 DRAFT The Peninsula's solid waste disposal needs for the foreseeable future will be ade- quately addressed by Implementation of the County's current solid waste management plan. However, long term needs will require a stronger multi-county alliance. The disposal of solid waste is an issue tons a day in 2007 based upon projected which all communities must address. In population growth. 1989, Leelanau County adopted a solid waste management plan under Act 641 The Five Year Plan calls for Glen's Land- which provides for the solid waste disposal fill (in the south central region of the Penin- needs of the Peninsula as well as regions be- sula along M-72) to serve as the principal yond. The plan was approved by the DNR in solid waste disposal site and has a estimated 1989. life expectancy of 50 years based upon current population growth rates of the Solid wastes currently produced in the Peninsula. The Plan also provides for pro- Peninsula originate from residential, com- grams in the area of solid waste recycling, mercial, and industrial sources. Approxi- composting, collection of household haz- mately nine solid waste haulers operate ardous wastes, and solid waste source re- throughout the Peninsula; no municipality duction. The Twenty Year Plan includes rec- within the County provides collection ser- ommendations for the continuation of private vices. Nearly all solid waste collected, except sector waste disposal responsibilities and the that which is subsequently recycled or col- expansion of recycling as the primary lected by the National Park Service, is dis- methods of meeting disposal needs. posed of at Glen's Landfill, a private landfill operation. The sandy soils in the County and rising standards for environmentally safe disposal The Plan estimated approximately 33 will require greater regional cooperation in tons of sclid waste were produced in 1987 the future. A strong multi-county alliance will and that this quantity would increase to 43.4 likely be necessary to meet long term re- gional disposal needs. Workng Paper #5 - Trend Future Page 8-11 DRAFT POSTSCRIPT The trends described in this working paper are the result of patterns and pressures that have been building for decades. They are stimulated in large part by powerful market forces. Unfortunately, these forces generally respond to short term considerations, and fail to consider either long term or broader public interests. Unchecked, these forces present the potential to "kill the goose that laid the golden egg. " The natural beauty and unique natural environment of the Peninsula is what attracts both permanent and seasonal residents. "Too much" develop- ment, or the "wrong kind" of development, or development in the "wrong place" will greatly damage the natural environment and hence the two key economic bases of the Peninsula-- tourism and agriculture. There used to be a careful balance on the Peninsula between resource based industries, like agriculture and forestry, and the tourist industry. The balance has dramatically shifted in the last two decades with the introduction of a third land use whose primary job creation bene- fits are related to the one time construction of year round houses. Permanent and seasonal residents who live outside of established villages, away from in- land lakes and are not engaged in activities related to resource use of the land or water, re- side in the homes which comprise the bulk of the sprawl development taking place on the Peninsula. The more nonfarm residential construction that occurs, the less able resource producers can operate because of the basic incompatibility between nonfarm residences and farming. As agriculture declines, the rural character of the area--one of its strongest assets-- will also erode. The process is slow and initially invisible, because the land fragmentation greatly precedes the actual construction of the house in most cases. As the balance shifts, the opportunities to protect and enhance rural character, and the natural environment dramatically decline. First the goose dies, eventually the last golden eggs are lost, broken or tarnished. If current trends continue, this is the future of the Peninsula. The goose won't die in the next twenty years at current rates of change. But the number of options (eggs) that are left to work with will dramatically decline. By then, our children will have far fewer choices than we. The Trend Future Does Not Have to Happen Because the trend future will happen merely by the continuation of existing trends, neither citizens nor governmental agencies have to do anything different than they are presently doing for it to occur. Thus the trend future is perhaps the truest form of self-fulfilling prophecy. However, that does not mean it must occur. In fact, there are many private and public ac- tions that could be initiated to alter the trend future. These could range from efforts to try to hasten new development of some types in some areas, to slowing it in others. They could in- clude measures to import new jobs or develop new skills and thereby reduce unemployment and reliance on public assistance. They could include the initiation of new infrastructure to at- tract growth in some areas and keep it away from others. They could involve incentives to Working Paper #5- Trend Future DRAFT farmers and -other large land owners to keep resource productive lands - in resource use. These and many more options exist. However, all such options depend on: 1. consensus about a common future for the Peninsula, 2. on the ability to establish effective public-private partnerships, and 3. on the degree of commitment of all local governments within the County to use the planning, regulatory and incentive tools at their disposal in a coordinated fashion to achieve common ends. These are the three purposes of the planning process being employed to produce the Leelanau General Plan. Following the preparation and analysis of more technical information, and the completion of many maps, a series of alternative futures for the Peninsula will be prepared. These will be based on the draft goals and objectives presented in Working Paper #6. The alternatives will have a strong physical development/e nvi ro n mental protection orientation. One of the alterna- tives will be based on a continuation of existing trends. Each option will be analyzed in light of its implications on the carrying capacity of the Peninsula, on the environmental impacts it im- plies, and on its ability to provide a sustainable future compatible with identified quality of life considerations. This analysis will be submitted to the Steering Committee and the general public for review and comment. Eventually, one alternative will be selected as the basis for organizing the Leelanau General Plan. Thereafter, success in implementation of the Plan will depend on the degiree of consensus on the plan and commitment to its implementation by both the public and private sectors. The degree to which all local governments in the County coordinate their local planning and zoning efforts with County efforts will in the end, probably be the single most important factor in the success of the Plan. Wor;dng Paper #5 - Trend Future NOAA COASTAL SERVICES CTR LIBRARY 1 3 6668 14111901 8