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71 Coastal Zone Information Center COASTAL ZONE INFORMATION CENTER Q) LT L7 --f- New York Sea Grant Institute 411StateStreet Albany,NY12246 c GV cn 191-.42 .G7 D66 1981 U DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA COASTAL SERVICES CENTER 2234 SOUTH HOBSON AVENUE CHARLESTON SC 29405-2413 Great Lakes Recreation/ Tourism Futurescapes F.M. Domoy FEB 11 1997 Property of CSC Library ..MINT F1 Great Lakes Rec reation/Tourism Futurescapes A First Impressions Report* Submitted by Center for Management Study, College of Business, Rochester Institute of Technology Authored by. Francis M. Ddroy., Associate Professor School of Food, Hotel, and Tourism Imanagenent May, 1981 *First Impressions are selected, unpublished Sea Grant research available for the price of photocopying. Preface The research project "Great Lakes Recreation/Tourism Futurescapes" was an attempt to portray future scenarios. The future scenarios have been linked to the Delphi planning process into which opinion leaders surrounding the Great Lakes have contributed tirm and effort. As a result.I,wish to personally thank those individuals as well as the Sea Grant Regional Specialists and New York Sea Grant Institute who assisted in making this study possible. Table of Contents Preface .................................................... i Table of Contents ......................................... 11 List of Tables .......................................... iii Introduction ............................. ........1 Forecasting Process ...... ................................. 2 'Summary of Results ........................... .............4 Conclusion and RecomiTendations. ............... ........... 19 Appendix I ............................................... 21 Questionnaire #1 ...................................... 22 Questionnaire #2 ...................................... 25 List of Tables Table I Cmy-uted. Percentages for Econanic Descriptors and Characteristics ........5 Table 2 Ccoputed Percentages forSocial Characteristics and Descriptors ..........7 Table 3 Pacorded Types of Behavior Describing Recreat-ion Consmption ............. 9 Table 4 Ccoputed Percentages for Physical Characteristics and Descriptors ....... 10 Table 5 Listing of Priorities for Econanic Characteristics and Descriptors ...... 11 Rable 6 Listing of Priorities for Social Characteristics and Descriptors ........ 13 Table-7 Listing of Priorities Physical Characteristics and Descriptors ........... 14 Table 8 Econanic Consensus of Opinion Leaders ..................................... 15 Table 9 Social Consensus of Opinion Leaders ...................................... 16- Table 10 Physical Consensus of opinion Leaders .................................... 17. Table 11 Econanic, Social, and Physical Consensus for years 1985,1990 and 2000...18 Introduction The decisions made by the State of New York Departmnt of Comrerce Tourism Division to recognize and,support their tourism economies through prarotion and packaging, as.evidenced by the "I Love New York" and new "New York Loves You" logos, has posednew challenges for agencies directly involved with recreation and tourism develolpment. Furthermore, at the Federal level the introduction of Senate Bill S.304 known,as the "National Tourism.Policy Act" has focused attention on the@national recreation and tourism econarry. As a result, those local, state, and federal agencies.with field responsibilities find difficulty in designing programs to support and:assist.their clients serving the tourism econorryIas,a whole. Tn response,to this need,,.the following analysis is an attempt to identify trends and scenarios which describe future formulations of the tourism industry in the Great Lakes Region of New York State. From future scenarios, field agents may utilize@the settings to either intensify.or redirect educatIonalprograrm in assisting,present or new client groups. The objectives of this forecasting effort can sinply be listed below: 1) To determine ..future econaTiic, social, and physical envirormental:scenarios for the Great Lakes coastline. 2) To identify trends within specific time periods as suggested by the years 1985, 1990, and 2000. 3) To Tmke reccmTendaticns as to educational program=g areas based upon specific scenario characteristics and descriptors. 2 Forecasting Process Various quantitative and qualitative methods have attempted to forecast tourism consumption patterns. Each method possesses constraints in predicting future profiles in recreation and tourism. One of the major issues contributing to forecasting is restrictive assumptions limiting projections beyond one or two years. As we begin to extend our thinking into extended planning horizons, uncertainty increases with the more static quantitative models. Furthermore, quantitative models become overly ccoplex as researchers attempt to integrate tourism demand and supply factors, consumer behavior, technological advances and public and corporate planning strategies. Therefore, qualitative models utilizing informed judges with possible opinion-leade characteristics may lend substantial insight in describing future tourism environment. However, the selection of informed judges-also has produced Limitations if short run biases constrain the overall effort. With these acknowledged limitations the following was the Delphi forecasting process instituted by this research project: 1) In order to ccaprehensively investigate the future of recreation and tourism in the Great Lakes Region it was necessary to categorize the econony into public, private, and inst-itutional sectors either supporting or industrially providing recreation and tourism goods and services. The categories selected include public agencies involved with the production of "collective" goods and services, private industry supplying the consumer with an array of products influenced by effective demand, and academic institutions researching future consumption. 2) once the specific categories were outlined a ccmmunication.was sent to the New York Sea Grant Regional Specialists to assist in the process of selecting opinion leaders for each of the categories. Each.agent was requested to submit names and ;;dr] esses of individuals involv ed within recreation anO tourism for each of the categories. A list of names was developed from the agents with additional opinion leaders identified by the author in an attempt 3 to comprehensively sample the Great Lakes Region. 3). One hundred and five received three generalized questions related to the future of recreation and tourism in the Great Lakes Region. A total of 52 participants returned the survey with 44 fully.carpleting questionnaire #1. Each question was designed to extract:very generalized observations concerning each of the,envirorzrental settings. Furthermore, various interpretations of the individual questions encouraged a diversity,of answers fornulating a comprehensive analysis of the-future event (see Appendix i). 4) Fran the outlined observat-ions recorded on questionnaire #1, specific characteristics and descriptors were recorded for each of the generalized questions used to describe a future event, ie: "there will be an increased aqphasis on seasonal homes within the Great Lakes Region." (characteristic seasonal hares, descriptor - increased emphasis.) The characteristics and descriptors became the.basis for questionnaire #2, in order to fully analyze all,observations stated in questionnaire #1. A second aspect of questionnaire #,2 was an attempt to tiTre line the forecasted events into @the years 1985, 1990, and.2000. This was accomplished by requesting each respondent to select a characteristic and'descriptor predominating the respective time periods within each of the economic, social, and physical environmental settings (see Appendix I). 4 Summary of Results Analysis of the characteristics with corresponding descriptors was carpleted by tally=g responses and canputing percentages for each of the three areas. These percentages appear within Tables 1-4 whereas Tables 5-7 represent the changes perceived over tirm for each of the three areas. In order to identify future scenarios fran the characteristics and descriptors for each of the environmental settings, a simple ranking procedure was designed. Fran each environn-ental setting the highest ten characteristics and descriptors represented by percentages were listed in descending order (Tables 8-10). The rankings indicated the degree of consensus of the opinion leaders within the Great Lakes Region. The ten characteristics and descriptors help portray each of the en viromental settings for the total thre period from 1985 to the year 2000. To forecast changes over the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 the opinion leaders were requested to select the characteristic and descriptor best irdicative of the tim period for each of the settings. Tables 5 thru 7 are the responses recorded from Part IV of questionnaire #2. In. attenpting to gain consensus for the individual tisre periods the most frequent listed characteristic's and descriiotors were recorded. As a result Table 11 reflects the consensus of the opinion leaders for the years and settings. TABLE 1 Conputed Percentages for Economic Characteristics and Descriptors Part 1. "Please describe the economic environnental setting that you foresee in recreation and tourisr n for the years 1985, 1990 and 2000 in the Great Lakes Region." (Questionnaire 111) Tr The following...questions reflect the descriptive term utilized by tthe aggregate group to,describelfuture economic conditions in recreation/tourism. A. How uould you describe the,characteristics of recreation/tourism facilities within the Great Lakes Region? Descriptors Characteristics Descriptors 41% Concentrated- , -Location- - - - ----Disperse 59% 47 Human-intensive- -Type of Investment--- --Capital-intensive, 53 12 L, Yc a, 1 _--<)wnership---- ---Corporate 38 Corporate -owned---Omership,----- -----Corporate Franchise 40 ..25 Public- ------Ownership- ---Private 75 @5 Local Capital- --Financing -Outside Capital 45 29 Public hlanagement-_Iv_ -----Private 71 27 Full-tiue- --Employment --Part-tize 73 67 Small scale-- ----Size La ge-scale 33 19 Vertical --Integration-- -Horizontal 82 49 Minimize costs -Strategies- --Maximize revenues. 51 31 Decrease --Energy cost-- --Increase 69 .70 Increase- -Rate of growth- ---Decrease 30 85 service-oriented- --Economy -.Production oriented 15 70 Decrease. Pole of Goverrzrent ---Increase 30 88 Increase- Role of Technology- --Decrease 12 77 Reinvestment _-Investment strategies __-Divestment 13 .82 Decrease- --Govenunent subsidization ---Increase 18 6 Table 1 (continued) Descriptors Characteristics Descriptors 16 Increase to business----Decrease 64% 86 Regional 4arkets ----Local 14 16 International -Markets -National 64 4 Decrease -----Water-based fa cilities--Increase 96 91 Increase -Land-based facilities- -Decrease 9 .78 Increase ----Strength of U.S. Dollar--Decrease 22 57 Boats --Allocation of discretionary-Second hcues 41 dollars .76 Travel vacations --Allocation of discretionary-Second homs 24 dollars 74 Travel vacations- - Allocation of discretionary--Boats 26 dollars .83 Increas --Charter fishing boats-----Decrease 17 83 Increase -Lake cruise boats-----Decrease 17 48 Possible- -Rationing of recreation/-NLot possible 52. tourism consuWtion 38 Decreas _--Cam-ezcial fishing-----increase 62 6 Decreas Sports fishing ---Increase 94 84 Sports fishing@ -.-Priority area- _-C-cnm-ercial, f ishing 16 82 Marina developent -Priority area- --- Camvercial port 18 developrmnt 58 Hydro power -Priority area- -Sportsfishing 42 7 Table 2 CaTputed percentages for Social Characteristics and Descriptors Part II. "Pleas*e describe the social enviromental setting that you foresee in. recreation and tourism for the years ,1985,1990 and.2000 in the Great Lakes Region. (Questionnaire #1) The following questions reflect the descriptive terms utilized by the aggregate group to.describe future social conditions in recreation/ tourism. A. How would you describe the social characteristics of population in relation to recreation and tourism consuTption in the Great Lakes Region? Descriptors Characteristics Descriptors 35% Low Density- ----Recreation consurption. pattern--High density 65% 56 Group- ----Recreation consumption pattern--Inclividual 44 31 Peer group-- -----Recreation consumption. pattern--Faniily 69 67 Group travel- --Travel pattern-----Individual travel 33 71 ;.,uto- ----Form. of transportation-----Bus Z9 -Form of transportation----Rail 63 Air 3/ 58 Water -Form, of transportation-----Rai-I 42 54 Truck- -Form. of transportation----Rail 46 41 Individual purchases---Vacations ------Pa(::],.ag(ad 59 5 LTpromptu---Vacations- -.-Planned 95 43 Increase ---Fanxily- --Decrease 57 8.5 Two parent--Household structure ---Single parent 15 39 Urban areas- -Population growing- -Rural areas 61 62 Suburban- -Population growing _-Urban 38 3 Low income-- -Greatest participation by------Middle-inccme 97 income group 78 Middle-incomt-_ -----Greatest participation by--High-income 22 income group 8 Table 2 (continued) Descriptors Characteristics Descriptors ---Decrease 65% Increase- -User conflicts- 35% 12 Decrease- --Supply of recreation/---Increase, 88 tourism activities 37, Elementary school -Educational introduction---Jr. High-Figh, 63 of recreation/tourism, 60@ High school -Educational introduction---College 40 of recreation/tourism. 84 increase -Public access -Decrease 16 25 Local -Appreciation of------Recjional 75 recreational attractiveness 70 Regional Recognition of- 30 recreational attractiveness 77 Longer- -vacation period- -shorter 23 66 Decrease- --Role of National.Parks---Increase 34 Systein 3 Single Family income source---Multiple 97 100 Increase --Tourist season- --Decrease 0 22 Young ---population structure - -middle aged 78 61 Middle-aged- -Population structure- -Senior citizen 39 49 Cwned haw--- -Living place- ---Api@:@t c,)nd=Lnium5l 88 Active recreation forrs---Baby boom market will seek-Passive recreation 12 85 increased- -Role of handicapped- Decreased 72 Flex-tiTm- -Work week- --Traditional structure 28 28 Stream--- Fishing preference -Lake 72 27 River mouth- Ishing preference--Lake 63 9 Table 3 Recorded Types of Behavior Form Describing Recreation Consuq:ytion (Social Environmental) B. Please identify the specific behavior@forms which best describe the types of consunption within the Great Lakes Region (select three). 21 Socializing in info=al settings 25 Associative behavior dictated by cammn interests 8 Canpetitive behaviors within, recreation activities.acainst others 4 Risk-taking behavior 13 Exploratory behaviors to gather new knowledge 71 Vicarious experience with others viewing a specific event 22, Sensory stimulation related toone's physical and mental needs 13 Physical expression to improve bodily performance 10 Table 4 Computed Percentages for Physical Characteristics and Descriptors Part III. "Please describe the physical environmental setting that you foresee in recreation and tourism. for the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 in the Great Lakes Region." (Questiom-iaire #1) The following quest-ions reflect the descriptive terns utilized by the aggregate group to describe future physical conditions in recreation/ tourism.. A. How would you describe the characteristics of the physical environment within the Great Lakes Region? Descriptors Characteristics Descriptors 92%. Increase- --Water quality- -Decrease 8% 30 Increas -Great Lakes water level---Decrease 70 25 Increase- _-Amount of toxic substances--Decrease 75 89 Increase --Construction of recreation---Decrease 11 far-i I ities 11 Decrease -Number of fishing piers---increa e 89 12 Decrease -Accessibilit- 88 areas .1 to inland bay--increase 22 Decrease-- -Water qualit@ .1 standards- -increase 78 81 Increase of abandoned- -Decrease 19 "rights-of-way" to recreation 15 Increase ---Fealth risk- of fish - --Decrease 85 consumption 86 Increase- -Fish stocking level --Decrea e 14 63 Increas- Acid rains -Decrease 37 89 multiple us ac ity function- -Single use 11 68 Increase -Water supplies --Decrease 32 64 Increase --Shoreline erosion - --Decrease 36 94 Increase- nal power generation----Decrea e 6 Table 5 Listing of Priorities for Economic Characteristics and Descriptors 1985 1990 2000 Reinvestment Travel vacations Private management Increase corporate ownership Outside-c,apital financing Increase field of technology Local ownership International-mark-ets Discretionary income for travel vacatid Service oriented industry increased rate of growth mximize revenue strategy Decrease on travel for recreation/ Discretionary dollars for low capital Increase in lake cruises tourism investments Outside capital.financing Decrease in inccues for travel vacations Increase mass transportation Increasing energy costs Corporate ownership Concentrated locations Decrease in family vacations Private ownership Energy cost decrease Increased inflation Service-oriented economy Packaged vacations Pole of government to decrease High capital investments Descretionary income for second homes Minimize cost strategy Increased inflation Greater employment of white collar over blue collar Role of government to increase Fner cost decrease International markets gy Increase in blue collar Discretionary income for second homes Decrease rate of growth unemployment Increase in local recreation White and blue collar increase in Decrease in private investment activities employment rate Increase in sportsfishing Discretionary income assigned to boating Decrease in private investment Capital intensive treatment Maximize cost strategy Regional markets Increase in private investment Increase in private investment Regional markets 12 Table 5 (continued) 1985 1990 2000 Tourism concentration Tourism concentration continued Level off of sportsfishing Regional markets Regional markets Dominance of sportsfishing in region Table 6 Listing of Priorities for Social Characteristics and Descriptors .1985 1990 2000 Social interaction slower than economic Flex-tine Middle-age population structure Planned family recreation Longer vacation period Recognition of recreation of the nationally Planned vacations Increase in tourism season Packaged vacation Supply of tourism to recreation Passive recreation form Passive recreation forms Ionger reaction period Group travel Group travel Active recreation forms Increase in user conflicts increase in user conflicts Individual travel increase in conflicts Increase in user conflicts Multiple family income Multiple family income. Appreciation of regional Middle income participation recreational attractions Family recreation pattern More active recreation Packaged planned travel Individual sports recreation declining U#)an population growing Increase in education forleisure Increase in recreational programming Packed planned travel Decrease in family recreation shorter vacation periods Group vacations Increase in public access Increased group travel Increase in public access High density recreation consumption Bus transportation Increase in recreation consumption Education for recreation and tourism 14 Table 7 Listing of-Priorities for Physical Characteristics and Descriptors 1985 1990 2000 Increase in the water quality Increase in fish stocking levels Increase in construction Increase in recreation Increase in water quality standards Decrease inacid rain construction Decrease in toxic substances Conversion of abandoned right-of-ways Multiple use.facilities increase Decrease in water quality Increase in shoreline erosion Increase in water quality standards Increase in multiple use Decrease in construction Decrease in water supply facilities Increase in accessibility Increase in construction Increase in shoreline erosion to inland bays Increase in acid rains Decrease in health risk of fish Decrease in water quality consuwption Multiple-purpose facilities Decrease in toxic substances Table 8 Economic Consensus of opinion Leaders Percentage of Consensus 'Characteristic and..Descriptor 96 Increase in water-based recreation facilities 94 @Increa e in sportfishing 91 ..Increase.in land-based recreation facilities 88 Increaserate of technological development 36 Emphasis on regional markets rather than local 85 Predominance of service-oriented economy 84 Policy priority placed upon.sportsfishing rather than ccmmercial fishing 83 Increase utilization of lake cruise boats 83 Increase utilization of charter fishing boats 82 Policy priority placed upon marina development rather than commercial port developrmnt .82, Decrease in goverrinent subsidization 82 Horizontal integration of recreation/tourisrn rather than vertic al integration 16 Table 9 Social Concensus of Opinion Leaders Percentage of Concensus Characteristics and Descriptors 100 Increase in length of tourist season 97 Greatest participation of middle-incorre group 97 Multiple family incare source rather than single 95 Planned vacations rather than impromptu 88 Increase supply of recreation./tourismactivities 88 Baby boan market to seek active recreation fornm 85 Increase role of handicapped in recreation/tourism 85 Tuo parent household structure rather than single 84 Increase public access to recreation facilities 78 Dauinance of middle-aged population structure 77 Longer vacation periods 72 Flex-tine rather than traditional work schedule 72 Lake fishing preference rather than stream fishing 71 Auto form of transportation rather than bus 17 Table 10 Physical Concensus of Opinion Leaders Percentage of Concensus Characteristics and Descriptors 94 increase in coal power generation 92 increase in water quality 89 Increase in construction of recreation facilities 89, Multiple use facility function rather than single use 88 Increase.accessibility to -inland bay areas 86 Increase in fish stocking level 85 Decrease in health risk of fish consunption. 81 -Increase conversion of abandoned."right-of-ways" to recreation 78 Increase in water quality standards .75 Decrease in.amunt of toxic substances 70 Decrease in Great Lakes water level Table 11 Economic, Social and Physical Consensus for Years 1985, 1990, and 2000 1985 1990 2000 Economic Increase corporate ownership Increase outside capital financing Increase in role of technology Increase in private investment Increase in corporate ovmership increase in international marketE. increase in energy cost Increase in sportsfishing social Increase supply of recreati on/ Group vacations Middle-aged population structure tourism Multiple family income Increase in user conflicts Increase in user conflicts Increase in tourist season Increase in tourist season Packaged planned travel Physical_ Increase in recreation facilities increase in water quality standards increase in recreation facilitie., construction construction increase in water quality Increase in shoreline erosion Increase in water quality Increase in fish stocking levels Increase in recreation facilities Multiple use facilities construction Multiple use facilities A. 1-1 Recommendations The preceding-series of tables are a reflection and consensus-ofthe opinion leaders within,the Great Lakes, Region. From tables 8-11, trends can be fo=milated by the reader in order thatthese observations can be applied to their.specific roles in government and industry... It is hot the researcher's intention- nor objective to personally forecast Great Lakes futurescapes. Rather I the intent is only to seek 'consensus among the opinion leaders as the Delphi process mandates. HOwever, the researcher wishes to make a list of reccmTendations-directed toward the general areas of educational programming which may be considered by Sea Grant field agents. The basis of the following recommendations is derived from the consensus.of the opinion ..leaders. s indicates a major interest in 1) The economic consensus of opinion eader water-bas.ed,recreation facilities specifically relating to sportsfishing. 'Further? both corporate and proprietary ownership of recreation/tourism business will increase within the region. In order to insl-=e economic viability of this commercial environirp-nt, Sea Grant's role should be directed towards existing, expanding, and proposed private developIrent efforts. The allocation of economic topics will depend upon regional identification of commerical development stages perceived by@the field agents, ie-@ human resource training, expansion, financing,,econanies-of- scale, new facility technologies, etc. 2) The.perceived social- consensus indicates that participation will occur at a greater level.of consumption than previously consumed. This is based upon an increased tourist season with a high degree of planned vacationing. Furthermore, there is consensus that consumers will evolvefrorn both regional and internat-ional markets. , With this increased consumption, user conflicts may develop. However, if programmed effectively, activities may also becorm complementary or symbiotic. In order to maintain a desired level of consumer 20 satisfaction, Sea Grant agents may continue to interact with specific user groups as well as other agencies such as local and regional tourist boards. The major emphasis should be directed at the logistics and servicing of specific user groups within the resource base, ie: vacation packaging, event scheduling, market development, needs identification, etc . 3) The consensus of the physical envixorment is a perceived increase in -the use of the water resources of the Great Lakes. It is believed that water quality will increase and that there will be a decrease in amount of toxic substances associated with the role of technology. Also, an increase in constructlon of recreation/tourism. facilities will occur, placing a greater demand on existing carrying capacities. As a result, Sea Grant's role to maintain programs with emphasis on physical water-based planning seems .necessary to insure a higher perceived quality, ie: shoreline protection, marina construction, facilities planning., chemical emissions, etc. It is hoped that this project has offered the regional field agents of Sea Grant a description of the future. Furthermore, it is suggested that the basis of this investigation.be continued in order to maintain effective educational programming for 'coastal audiences. 21 Appendix I Cover Letter #1 22 You have been identified.by New York Sea Grant Extension Program agents and researchers as perceived opinion leaders within the recreation and tourism industry. Furthermore, the selection is based upon your contributions, insights, and expertise to plan for recreation and tourism. As a result, I am asking if you will participate in a planning process to determine future educational programming needs for recreation and tourism for the Great Lakes Region. The enclosed questionnaire is first in a series of two survey instruments that will be sent to you for completion. The first questionnaire is designed to broadly view the future economic, social, and physical environments of recreation and tourism for the years 1985, 1990, and 2000. The design of the second questionnaire is contingent upon your observations and comments conveyed by questionnaire #1. From areas of agreement, disagreement and potential priorities a more objective.instrument will be constructed to seek an overall consensus. Once a consensus has been approximated, the study.has reached its completion. Please record your observations on the attached questionnaire and return it in the stamped enclosed envelope by March 1, 1981. The findings of this study will be shared with you upon its completion. Thank you for your sincere interest in this project entitled, "Great Lakes Recreation/Tourism Futurescapes". Sincerely, Francis,M. Domoy Associate Professor School of Food, Hotel Tourism Management FMD:ds Enc. 23 QUESTIONNAIRE TIF'I Please describe the economic environmental setting that you foresee in recreationand tourism for:the years 1985, 1900, and 2000 in the Great Lakes Region. A. Year 1985 2. 3. B. Year 1990 2. 3. C. Year 2000 2. 3. 2)., Please describe the social environmental setting that ou''foresee y in recreaticn and tourism.for the years 1985, 19'90, and 2000 in the Great Lakes Region. A.. Year 1985 2. 3. B., Year 1990 2. 3. 24 C. Year 2000 1 2. 3. 3) Please describe the physical environmental setti ng that you foresee in recreation and tourism for the year 1985, 1900, and 2000 in the Great Lakes Region. A. Year 1985 1. 2. 3. B. Year 1990 1. 2. 3. C. Year 2000 1. 2. 3. --cover j@etr_er-:@r,& 25 I sincerely wish to thank you for'your completion of the first phase of the "Great Lakes Futurescape Project." A great deal of time and effort was apparent in the submitted.comments.. As you realize, Questionnaire #1 was designed to extract very generalized observations concerning the@economic, social and physical environmental settings requested,for the years 1985, 1990, and 2000. The questionnaire was purposely designed to allow for various interpretations of the .individual.questions. As a result, each of you presented a diversity of answers which allows us to comprehensively forecast the future. From your submitted observations, I have identified specific des- criptors,which were utilized to depict fut.ure.settings. The des- criptors will be.the focus of questionnaire #2. Therefore, each recorded response will help determine the degree in which.you feel a specific event or change will occur.@ Furthermore, it will help usto approacha position of consensus, therefore, allowing.us to complete the planning process. The following questionnaire is an attempt to further.formulate a futurescape for the Great Lakes Region. Please return ques tionnaire by April 24, 1981. you for your dedication to the project. Sincerely, Francis,M. Domoy Associate Professor School.of Food, Hotel & Tourism Management /ds QUESTIONNAIRE #2 26 This questionnaire is framed in four parts to reflect the ordering of Questionnaire #1. Therefore, the original questions will be repeated and all descriptors identified by you in the first phase will be tested. .Instructions: Please check the parenthesis box indicating your judgement for the following questions. Part I. "Please describe the economic environmental setting that you foresee in recreation and tourism for the years-,1985, 1990, and 2000 in the Great Lakes Region." (questionnaire The following questions reflect the descriptive terms utilized by the aggregate group to describe future economic conditions in recreation/tourism. A. How would you describe the characteristics of recreation/ tourism facilities within the,Great Lakes Region. Descriptors Characteristic Descriptors ) Concentrated ---------- Location ------------------- Disperse ) Human-intensive ------- Type of investment ---------- Capital-intensive ) Local ----------------- ownership ------------------ Corporate ) Corporate-owned ------ ownership ------------------ Corporate Franchise ) Public --------------- ownership ------------------ Private ) Local Capital --------- Financing ----------------- Outside Capital ) Public --------------- Management ------------- Private ) Full-time ------------- Employment ----------------- Part-time ( ) Small scale ----------- Size ----------------------- Large Scale ( ) Vertical -------------- Integration ---------------- Horizontal ( ) Minimize costs -------- Strategies ----------------- Maximize Revenues Decrease -------------- Energy cost ---------------- Increase Increase -------------- Rate of growth ------------- Decrease Service-oriented ------ Economy type --------------- Production- oriented Decrease ------------- Role of Government --------- Increase Increase -------------- Role of Technology--------- Decrease 27 DescriDtors Characteristic Descrii:tors Reinvestment ---------- Investment strategies---- Divestment Decrease -------------- Government subsidization--Increase Increase -------------- Constraints to business-- Decrease Regional -------------- Markets ------------------ Local international ---------- Markets ------------------ National. Decrease ----------- @- Water-based facilities--- Increase Increase ------------- Land-based facilities.---- Decrease Increase -------------- *Strength. of U.S. Dollar-- Decrease Boats ----------------- Allocation.of ----------- Second homes descretionary dollars Travel vacations, ----- Allocation of ----------- Second homes descretionary dollars Travel vacations ------ Allocation of ------------ Boats descretionary dollars Increase -------------- Charter fishing boats ---- Decrease Increase -------------- Lake cruise boats -------- Decrease @Possible -------------- Rationing of recreatidn/- Not possible tourism consumption Decrease -------------- Commercial fishing ------- Increase Decrease -------------- Sports fishing ----------- Increase Sports fishing -------- Priority area ------------ Commercial fishing Marina development---- Priority area ------------ Commercial port development Hydro power ----------- Priority area ---------- Sports. fishing Part It. "Please describe Ithe social environ mental setting that,you foresee in.recreation and-tourism for the years, 1985, 1990, and 2000in the Great.Lakes Region (questionnaire -The following questions reflect,the descriptive terms utilized by the aggregate group to describefuture social conditions in recreation/tourism. 28 A. How would you describe the social characteristics of pcp- ulation in relation to recreation and tourism consumption in.the Great Lakes Region. Descriptors Characteristic Descriptors Low density ----------- Recreation consumption--- High density pattern Group ---------------- Recreation consumption --- Individual pattern Peer group ----------- Recreation consumption --- Family pattern Group travel ---------- Travel pattern ----------- Individual travel Auto ------------------ Form of transportati-on --- Bus Air ------------------- Form of transportation --- Rail Water ----------------- Form of transportation --- Rail Truck ----------------- Form of transportation --- Rail ) Individual purchases-- Vacations ---------------- Packaged ) Impromtu -------------- Vacations ---------------- Planned ) Increase -------------- Family ------------------- Decrease ).Two parent ------------ Household structure ------ Single parent Urban areas ----------- Population growing ------ Rural areas Suburban -------------- Population growing ------- Urban Low-income ------------ Greatest.participation--- Middle-income . by iricome 4roup - Middle-income --------- Greatest participation --- High-income by income group Increase -------------- User conflicts ----------- Decrease Decrease -------------- Supply of recreation/ ---- Increase tourism activities Elementary school ----- Educational introduc- --- Jr.High-High School tion of recreation/tourism High school ----------- Educational introduc- --- College tion of recreatidn/tourism Increase -------------- Public access ------------ Decrease Local ----------------- Appre ciation of --------- Regional recreational attractiveness . Regional -------------- Recognition of ---------- National recreational attractiveness Descriptors Characteristic Descriptors 29 Longer ---------------- Vacation period ---------- Shorter Decrease --------------- Role of National Parks--- Increase System Single ---------------- Family income source----- Multiple Increase -------------- Tourist season ------------ Decrease Young ----------------- Population structure----- Middle aged Middle.aged ----------- Population structure ----- Senior citizen Owned home ------------ Living place ------------- Apartment- condominium Active recreation"-- Baby boom market --------- Passive recreation @forms will seek Increased ------------- Role of handicapped ------ Decreased Flex-time ------------- Work week ---------------- Traditional structure Stream ---------------- Fishing preference ------- Lake River mouth ------------ Fishing preference ------- Lake B. Please identify the specific behavior forms which best describe the types of consumption within the Great Lakes.Region (select three) Socializing in informal settings. Associative behavior dictated by common interests. Competitive behaviors within recreation activities against others. Risk-taking behavior. Exploratory behaviors to gather new knowledge. Vicarious experience with others viewing a specific event. Sensory stimulation -related to one's physical and mental needs. Physical expression to improve bodily performance. Part Ill. "Please describe the physical,environm.ental setting that you foresee in recreation and tourism-for the years 1985, 1990, and 2.00'0 in the.Great Lakes Region.". (questionnaire 11rl) The following questions reflect the descriptive terms utilized by the aggregate group to describe future physical conditions in recreation/tourism. A. How would you de.scribe the characteristics of the physical environment within the Great Lakes Region? Descriptors Characteristic Descriptors Increase -------------- Water quality ------------ Decrease Increase -------------- Great Lakes water-level-- Decrease Increase -------------- Amount of toxic substance-Decrease Increase -------------- Construction of ---------- Decrease recreation facilities ) Decrease -------------- Number of fishing piers-- Increase ) Decrease -------------- Accessibility to -------- Increase inland bay areas ) Decrease -------------- Water quality standards-- Increase Increase -------------- Conversion of abandoned-- Decrease rights of way" to recreation increase -------------- Health risk of ----------- Decrease fish consumption Increase -------------- Fish stocking level ------ Decrease Increaze ------------- Acid rains --------------- Decrease Multiple use ----------- Facility function --------- Single use increase -------------- Water supplies ----------- Decrease Increase -------------- Shoreline erosion -------- Decrease Increase -------------- Coal power generation ---- Decrease Part N. In order to complete the planning process, it is neces sary to prioritize characteristics describing the Great Lakes Region for the years 1985, 1990, and 2000. It is necessary for you to select'one characteristic and your.recorded descriptor which you feel best forecasts each setting and time period. Please fill in the following table to complete this survey. i.e. (1985, Economic) red fishing lures - increase (1990, Economic) blue fishing lures decrease, etc. 1985 1990 2000. Economic Social Physical Thank you,'. I I I I I I I I I I I . I I I I I L k I I f i 1 Illiffiffillmaill I 3 6668 00002 4671