[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]




       Trends in US* Coastal Regions,
                      19 Aw 1998
                Addendum to the Proceedings,
               Trends and Future Challenges for
             U.S, National Ocean and Coastal Policyf

                        August 1999


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            About This Report
                                             This report examines underlying and em erging trends that are
                                             shaping the coast, coastal resources and uses, and coastal manage-
                                             ment and policy. Past and projected trends are presented ih popu-
                                             lation and settlement; economic activity; social values; resources;
                                             environmental quality; hazards; and governance and manage-
                                             ment. An effort is made to use enough contextual information so
                                             that the data convey a story about the present and future of the
                                             nation's coasts.

            Report Team                      Charles A. Bookman
                                             Thomas J. Culliton
                                             Maureen A. Warren


            Acknowledgments
                                             Many staff members of the National Ocean Service Special Projects
                                             Office contributed to this paper in important ways by identifying
                                             information sources, contributing data and analysis, or providing
                                             critical technical support. The following individuals obtained and
                                             provided information: Suzanne Bricker and Chris Cleme:_-It
                                             (eutrophication), Timothy Goodspeed (marine pollution), Miranda
                                             Harris (coastal hazards, marine recreation), Vernon Leew orthy
                                             (marine recreation), John Hayes (social trends), Percy Pacheco
                                             (water quality), Davida Remer (governance and management),
                                             Craig Russell (energy and minerals), John Paul Tolson (various)
                                             and Peter Wiley (marine aquaculture, marine recreation), Blair
                                             Bower and Timothy Goodspeed reviewed the manuscriF t and
                                             made numerous helpful suggestions. Davida Remer and Craig
                                             Russell designed and incorporated the figures and tables. Pam
                                             Rubin edited the report and designed the cover. The authors also
                                             wish to acknowledge the contribution of Daniel J. Basta, Director
                                             of the Special Projects Office, who supported the effort and made
                                             the resources available.


            For More Information
                                             This report can be downloaded in PDF format from NOAXs
                                             National Dialogues Web site:
                                             http: / /state-of-coast.noaa.gov/natdialog/index.htmI
                                             For a printed version of the report, contact Pam Rubin, Special
                                             Projects Office, National Ocean Service, NOAA, 1305 East-West
                                             Hwy., 9th Fl., Silver Spring, MD 20910-3281.

                                             301-713-3000, ext. 121
                                             [email protected]









                    Contents

                                                                                                                                                                  Page

                                                                  Executive Summary           ........................................................................................ iii

                                                                  Introduction       ............................................................................................................1


                                                                  Coastal Population and Settlement                 ...................................................................3
                                                                       Hot Spots of Growth           .......................................................................................3
                                                                       Settlement Patterns        ..........................................................................................3
                                                                       Housing Construction Trends              ........................................................................4

                                                                  Social Trends       ..........................................................................................................6


                                                                  Economic and Resource Trends                ..........................................................................7
                                                                       Recreation and Tourism           ..................................................................................7
                                                                       Waterbome Commerce               ...................................................................................8
                                                                       Energy and Minerals           .......................................................................................9
                                                                       Food Supply       .................................................................................................... 11
                                                                       Living Marine Resources            .............................................................................. 12

                                                                  Environmental Quality             ...................................................................................... 13
                                                                       Point Sources of Pollution          ............................................................................. 15
                                                                       Nonpoint Sources of Pollution             ..................................................................... 16
                                                                       Habitats     ........................................................................................................... 18


                                                                  Coastal Hazards         ................................................................................................... 19


                                                                  Governance and Management                  .......................................................................... 22

                                                                  Concluding Observations              .................................................................................. 24

                                                                  End Notes       .............................................................................................................. 26


                                                                  References      ............................................................................................................. 26





























































































           ii









                                                                            conserve and manage the environment, and they
                Executive Summary                                           have considerable technical and managerial capabili-
                                                                            ties and resources.
                Coastal areas are invaluable for their economic
                vitality and biological diversity. At the same time, the    Economic and resource trends. Marine-related
                coasts are under considerable pressure. This paper          economic activities in the coastal zone and coastal
                examines underlying and emerging trends that are            ocean account for up to two percent of the U.S. Gross
                shaping the coast, coastal resources and uses, and          National Product and are comparable in scope to
                coastal management and policy. Present and pro-             other important sectors of the economy, such as
                jected trends are discussed in population and settle-       agriculture. Recreation and tourism, waterbome
                ment; social values; economic activity; resources;          commerce, energy and mineral production, and
                environmental quality; hazards; and governance and          fisheries account for most economic activities along
                management.                                                 the coast.
                Coastal population and settlement. Population                    Recreation and tourism. Outdoor recreation and
                growth and its associated impacts may be the most                tourism are the most significant economic
                critical issue confronting coastal managers and                  activities in the coastal zone, accounting for half
                decision-makers. Coastal areas are crowded and                   or more of total ocean-related economic activity
                becoming more so. About half the nation's popula-                Despite the diversity and scope of recreational
                tion presently resides in the narrow fringe of coastal           activities-from birdwatching, to boating-based
                counties. From 1996-2015, the coastal population is              sports, to second-home developments-little
                projected to increase from 141 million to 166 million.           information is available on coastal and marine
                Population growth and consequent increases in                    recreation and tourism, its scope, importance,
                settlement densities bring jobs, create economic                 and impacts. Interestingly, the government plays
                prosperity, add new industry, improve regional                   an important role in providing the underlying
                infrastructures, enhance educational opportunities,              conditions for marine recreation and tourism.
                and increase tax revenues-but they also burden                   These include (1) ensuring a clean environment,
                local environments. As coastal populations swell, the            (2) assuring coastal access, and (3) promoting a
                natural features that may have attracted people to the           safe operating environment. Given the economic
                coast are lost or diminished. Population pressures               importance of marine recreation and tourism, and
                lead to increased solid-waste production, higher                 the importance of the government role in provid-
                volumes of urban runoff, losses of green space and               ing the basic underlying conditions for these
                wildlife habitat, declines in ambient water quality,             activities, much more could be done to under-
                and increased demands on wastewater treatment,                   stand, document, manage, and promote marine
                potable water, and energy supplies. To control these             recreation.
                kinds of impacts, states and localities have begun to
                channel public investment for infrastructure into                Waterbome commerce. U.S. waterborne foreign
                areas that are best able to accommodate growth                   trade is projected to continue to grow at an
                without deleterious environmental impacts.                       average annual rate of 3.7 percent. Domestic
                                                                                 waterbome trade is also growing, and becoming
                Social trends. Thirty years ago, most Americans                  more diverse-the shifting of freight cargoes
                believed that resources were essentially infinite and            from ships to barges, and the growth in passen-
                could be exploited forever. Today, in contrast, marine           ger traffic, especially ferries and day boats, are
                and coastal resources are known to be finite, and                prominent domestic trends. The focus of all this
                capable of being harmed or lost by human activities.             activity is the major ports (about 145 of them),
                As shown by national polling data, the transition of             each of which handles more than 9 million metric
                the environment from an issue of limited concern to              tons of cargo annually. These ports need to keep
                one of universal concern occurred years ago. More-               pace with the growth in trade, and other changes
                over, the public understands the ocean's importance              in ships and shipping. U.S ports are affected by
                to human health, and demonstrates a sense of                     important changes in two areas: (1) the rapidly
                responsibility to protect the ocean for present and              changing intermodal freight transportation
                future generations. Coincident with the evolution of             market, which moves increasing amounts of
                public attitudes that favor ocean protection, nongov-            cargo on ever more demanding schedules, and
                emmental organizations have risen to work with                   (2) the increasing number and complexity of
                both landowners and government agencies to                       environmental regulations that pertain to ports.
                                                                                 The U.S. Department of transportation and other

                                                                                                                                       iii









                  agencies have initiated a coordinated national             needs at a time when population growth and
                  effort to highlight trends, promote coordination           rising affluence are increasing the demand for
                  at the national level, and encourage local solu-           food. Aquaculture holds some promise as an
                  tions. This will help ensure adequate port                 alternative to wild harvest, but has environmen-
                  infrastructure, including appropriate channel              tal problems of its own.
                  and berth depths, real-time navigation informa-
                  tion, modem port facilities, and efficient             Environmental quality. Coastal oceans and
                  intermodal connections.                                estuaries are among the most productive and valu-
                                                                         able natural systems. They are also among the most
                  Energy and minerals resources and production.          threatened. Environmental stressors include nutrient
                  About 19 percent of the nation's produced oil          overenrichment, bacterial contamination, chemical
                  comes from federal offshore lands. Moreover,           pollution, oxygen depletion, oil and grease spills and
                  revenues and royalties earned on this production       contamination, and planned and unplanned habitat
                  are a significant source of revenue for the federal    alterations. The importance and severity of these
                  government. Heightening the importance of the          stressors varies from region to region and often is a
                  oceans to the U.S. energy supply is the fact that      consequence of human activity.
                  about 50 percent of oil consumed is imported by
                  ship, and the reliance on imported petroleum is            Point sources. Point sources of pollution include
                  slated to grow to 60 percent by 2010. An increas-          discharges of municipal and industrial wastewa-
                  ing fraction of domestic offshore oil and gas is           ter and dumping of materials into ocean waters.
                  being discovered and produced from wells                   In general, the nation has made a massive and
                  drilled in deep water, especially in the Gulf of           partially successful investment over the last
                  Mexico. Rapid and dramatic technology ad-                  generation to control point sources, and the
                  vances, coupled recently with relief from paying           environment has benefited as a result. Two of the
                  royalties on deepwater production, have com-               outstanding successes include (1) more wide-
                  bined to encourage the trend toward deep water             spread wastewater treatment, and higher levels
                  production. Current models suggest that federal            of treatment, across the nation, and (2) the
                  offshore lands contain 50 percent of the nation's          elimination of most ocean dumping and greater
                  remaining undiscovered oil and gas resources;              control over the one major dumping activity that
                  offshore oil production rates are projected to             remains-the disposition of materials dredged
                  increase by at least 10 percent between 1995 and           from navigable waterways. The developments in
                  2000.                                                      wastewater treatment are mirrored and con-
                                                                             firmed in environmental measurements that
                  Fishery resources and food supply. U.S. fishery            show long-term reduction of heavy metal and
                  landings have increased over the past 50 years,            organic chemical pollution in the marine envi-
                  but have now reached the maximum capacity of               ronment near urban areas, as well as improve-
                  our oceans and coastal waters to produce fish.             ments in other indicators of environmental
                  While landings in Alaska have increased dra-               quality. Ocean dumping of dredged material
                  matically, they have declined in other regions for         now is confined to clean materials placed in
                  many species. In addition, for some marine                 designated dump sites that are carefully moni-
                  species, recreational landings represent a signifi-        tored.
                  cant and growing proportion of the catch. The
                  challenge in fisheries management is to achieve            Nonpoint sources. The remaining one- to two-
                  sustainable fisheries over the long-term. To               thirds of pollutants contributing to the degrada-
                  accomplish this, it is necessary to end overfishing        tion of coastal and marine waters are from
                  and allow depleted stocks to rebuild.                      nonpoint sources, which include runoff and
                                                                             seepage from agricultural and urban areas, and
                  The acreage of designated shellfishing waters is           air deposition onto land and into water. Seasonal
                  at an all-time high. At the same time, health              eutrophication (oxygen depletion) of water
                  restrictions on these waters are at their lowest           bodies is an important manifestation of nonpoint
                  levels since 1980. Overall, the condition of               pollution. The problem varies by region. The
                  shellfish harvest waters is improving.                     aggregate picture indicates an increase in the
                                                                             severity and extent of eutrophication in the
                  The degradation and loss of coastal habitats, with         future, with greater than 60 percent of the
                  other factors such as overfishing, are constrain-          monitored estuaries expected to show worsening
                  ing the contribution of fisheries to world dietary         eutrophication symptoms. This is largely a

             iv










                  consequence of the anticipated population               areas, and (2) building codes that incorporate hazard-
                  growth in estuarine watersheds. Because of              resistant construction standards, as well as guidelines
                  projected population increases, the need to limit       for appropriate siting of structures in areas where
                  nutrient inputs to estuaries must be emphasized         they are less likely to suffer wind or water damage.
                  further as we move into the next century.
                                                                          Governance and management. The great number
                  Habitats. Human activities have changed,                of activities that occur in the coastal zone and in, on,
                  degraded or destroyed coastal habitats, threaten-       and under the coastal ocean are governed by a
                  ing many important species. Until recently, many        complex and often fragmented framework of laws,
                  coastal habitat resources were undervalued or           regulations, and practices. Three fundamental trends
                  not fully appreciated in terms of our dependence        are occurring to address this situation. First, on an
                  on them. Efforts have recently begun on every           international scale since 1973, the idea of the oceans
                  coast to identify the habitats essential for every      as a "commons" has been supplanted by principles,
                  life stage of every managed fish species. Once          codified in the Law of the Sea Convention, which
                  these essential habitats have been identified,          (1) recognize the rights of nation-states to establish
                  measures can then be taken to protect them from         200-mile exclusive economic zones over ocean
                  direct damage, and from degradations such as            resources and uses, and (2) authorize regional
                  nonpoi.nt source pollution, eutrophication, and         management arrangements for ocean uses. This trend
                  physical habitat loss resulting from coastal            has led to increases in resource utilization, such as
                  development.                                            fisheries development and offshore energy produc-
                                                                          tion. Second, federal environmental mandates have
              Coastal hazards. Coastal storms damage property,            established special ocean and coastal management
              take lives, and disrupt ecosystems as a result of high      areas, and expanded the national capacity to plan for
              winds, storm surge, flooding, and shoreline erosion.        and manage the coastal zone. Third, integrated
              The theory that global warming will make storms             management approaches are coming into use that
              stronger and more frequent is under intense sWdy;           bring together diverse stakeholders to address the
              the data are incomplete about whether global warm-          economic, environmental, and social demands placed
              ing will lead to more destructive coastal storms. It is     on finite ocean and coastal resources.
              known, however, that sea level is rising in many
              regions, and that global warming may speed this
              process. Global sea level is projected to rise on
              average about 5 mm/yr. A rise in sea level and
              increased storm frequencies could accelerate erosion
              and associated habitat loss, increase salinity, alter
              tidal ranges, change sediment and nutrient transport
              patterns, and increase coastal flooding.

              The societal cost of coastal hazards is determined not
              only by the annual variability in their occurrence, but
              also by the increasing population at risk, the growing
              numbers and value of structures and businesses, and
              other manifestations of economic activity. Both
              population and wealth have increased greatly, and
              these changes have increased the exposure of the U.S.
              population to damages from coastal hazards.

              When the losses from coastal storms are normalized
              to account for these changes, the extent of damages
              actually has decreased (on average) over the years.
              The explanation for this conundrum of greater
              potential for loss, but relatively fewer actual losses,
              lies in the success of major and long-term efforts to
              prepare and plan for coastal hazards, and to mitigate
              their effects. These efforts include (1) better predic-
              tions, forecasts and warnings that enable timely and
              targeted preparations and evacuations of high hazard



























































































            vi









                                                                              ties that stress the natural environment (e.g., popula-
                  Introduction                                                tion growth); or (2) natural changes that stress
                                                                              human activities (e.g., sea level rise). These pressures,
                Coastal areas are invaluable for their economic               together with societal actions (responses) to address
                vitality and biological diversity. At the same time,          the pressure or mitigate their impacts on society,
                the coasts are under considerable pressure. More              determine the environment's state or condition. As an
                than half of the U.S. population lives and works in           example, consider population growth, settlement,
                coastal regions. As coastal populations grow and              and economic development in the coastal zone.
                associated economic development increases, many of            These activities bring demands for water, waste
                the qualities and features of the coast are diminished.       disposal and raw materials; they increase pollutant
                Coastal habitats are degraded or lost, harmful algae          discharges to water and air, and change land uses,
                blooms proliferate, fisheries are overexploited, and          often degrading or fragmenting natural habitats.
                seafood advisories increase. The natural processes of         Without mitigation, these pressures can seriously
                coastal ecosystems are being disrupted, and this, in          compromise natural biophysical systems. The
                turn, threatens the ecological and economic values of         pressures that are examined in this paper include
                coastal areas. Figure 1 shows the gradual increase in         trends in population and settlement; economic
                U.S. coastal and noncoastal populations in recent             activity; social values; and natural hazards in the
                decades.                                                      coastal zone.

                A plethora of federal, state, and local management            State is the quality or condition of the environment.
                efforts address these issues. Nevertheless, there is a        It is the result of the combined effects of the pressures
                growing recognition that, because of the direct and           and societal attempts to reduce the effects of the
                indirect impacts of human activities, crisis conditions       pressures, Le-, responses. State relates to ecological
                are emerging in many coastal areas. Regrettably, the          processes or to a part or parts of ecological systems.
                environmental quality of coastal and marine areas             In this report, the state of the coastal environment is
                and resources, and the economic value of vital ocean          summarized by examining trends in living and
                and coastal industries such as trade, tourism, and            nonliving coastal resources, coastal environmental
                fishing, will be in jeopardy unless effective measures        quality, and certain human settlement patterns that
                are taken soon to safeguard, protect, and restore our         increase the potential for damages from coastal
                oceans and coastal areas.                                     hazards.

                This paper examines underlying and emerging
                trends that are affecting coastal and marine resources        Figure 1. Past and projected population trends in U.S.
                and uses, and coastal management and policy.                             and coastal counties, 1960-2010
                Trends (past and projected) are presented in popula-
                tion and settlement; economic activity; social values;              350'
                fesources; environmental quality; hazards; and                            N United States
                governance and management. An effort is made to                     300'  PON Coastal Counties
                use enough contextual information so that the data
                convey a story about the present and possible future                250-
                of the nation's coasts.
                                                                                0
                                                                                    200-
                The report focuses on the coastal and ocean areas of            4@
                the United States. Ocean areas represent waters                 9
                                                                                =0  150-
                extending from the shoreline to the limits of the
                Exclusive Economic Zone (200 nautical miles). The                   100
                term coastal area, coastal region, or coastal zone
                generally refers to the land and waters included in
                the nation's coastal counties. Coastal counties are                   50
                defined as those including at least 15 percent of their
                land area within a coastal watershed.                                  0
                                                                                      1960    1970    1980    1990   2000    2010
                Pressure, State, Response Focus. A pressure, state,                                       Year
                and response analytical framework is used in this
                paper. Pressures may result from: (1) human activi-           Sources: Bureau of the Census, 1998, National Planning
                                                                              Association, 1995









               Responses are societal actions that improve environ-
               mental conditions or alleviate or eliminate environ-
               mental pressures. Societal actions include legislation,
               regulation, capital expenditures on infrastructure
               (e.g., waste treatment), research, financial incentives
               and disincentives, education, information gathering,
               and changes in personal habits or behaviors. Re-
               sponses take place in many arenas, including na-
               tional and state legislatures, government agencies at
               federal, state, and local levels, nonprofit organiza-
               tions, private industry, international organizations,
               and even individual households. The governance
               and management section addresses trends in re-
               sponse efforts along the coast. Responses to pressures
               (e.g., societal responses to deteriorated water and air
               quality; resource depletion, coastal hazards) are also
               discussed.


               The quantity and quality of the data used to develop
               this report vary according to each topic. Information
               documenting trends in economic activities, resource
               status and use, pollution impacts, and management
               is of varied quality and uneven in subject matter. It
               also is difficult to summarize trends on these topics
               in a limited space. However, actual trend information
               for coastal areas at the national scale is not readily
               available for many topics. As a result, some of the
               trend information included in this report applies to
               noncoastal areas as well. In addition, it is difficult to
               obtain projected data for topics other than population
               or activities that are directly impacted by population
               growth (e.g., projected municipal sewage treatment
               effluent).


























               2










                                                                           ment than noncoastal areas, accounting for 16 of the
                 Coastal Population and                                    20 counties with the largest number of new housing
                 Settlement                                                units under construction. Finally, coastal counties are
                                                                           among the nation's wealthiest; 18 of the 20 leading
                                                                           counties in per capita income are located along the
               Coastal areas are crowded and becoming more so              coast (Bureau of the Census, 1994a).
               every day. More than 141 million people-about 53
               percent of the national total-reside along the narrow       This kind of growth brings jobs, creates economic
               coastal fringes. Population growth in the 1990s has         prosperity, adds new industries, improves regional
               averaged about 1.1 million people per year. The             infrastructure, enhances educational opportunities,
               population is projected to increase by about 24.7           and increases tax revenues-but it also burdens the
               million, reaching 166 million people by the year 2015.      environment. As coastal populations swell, the
               Most of this population growth will occur in the            natural features that may have attracted people to the
               states of California, Florida, Texas, Washington, and       coast are lost or diminished. Population pressures
               Virginia. Together, California and Florida are ex-          include increased solid waste production, higher
               pected to increase by 13 million people, more than          volumes of urban nonpoint runoff, loss of green
               half of the total increase in coastal population.           space and wildlife habitat, declines in ambient water
                                                                           quality, and increased demands on wastewater
                                                                           treatment, potable water, and energy supplies.
                                             ------------
                 Hot' "S           "s, "'b", f'Grow,,th'_.:-
               Between 1997 and 2015, 10 counties in the aforemen-            SettlelpentPattems`.@,"
               tioned states are projected to account for about one-
               third of all anticipated coastal population growth.         The coast is becoming more crowded every year.
               The largest population increases are expected in Los        Coastal areas are more densely populated than the
               Angeles (1.6 million) and San Diego (1.2 million)           rest of the Nation. In 1997, an average of 277 people
               counties in California, and Harris County (1.2              inhabited every square mile of coastal land (exclud-
               million) surrounding Houston, Texas.                        ing Alaska). This is three times the national average
                                                                           (91 persons per square mile). Since 1970, the coastal
               Growth along the Southern California coast, from            population density increased by about 62 persons for
               Santa Barbara to San Diego, has been rapid, averag-         every square mile of coastal land (Figure 2).
               ing about 3,400 newcomers every week. The region's
               population increased from 11.6 million in 1970 to 18.7
               million in 1997, and is projected to increase by 5.2
               million people-reaching almost 24 million-by                Figure 2. Past and projected population density in coastal
               2015. This region alone accounts for more than 13                      and noncoastal counties, 1970-2015
               percent of the nation's coastal population.                     350 -       Coastal
               During the past several years, Florida's population                         Counties
               has increased by about 4,400 people per week.                   300-        Noncoastal
               Florida includes many of the nation's fastest-growing           250--       Counties
               counties. Large numbers of people have settled in the
               Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metropolitan area, and also                200
               along Florida's southwest coast. Rapid population
               growth also has occurred since 1970 in vacation and             150--_
               retirement communities, especially along the state's
               western coast.                                               Q), 100-

               Coastal counties lead in many demographic indica-                 50--
               tors. During the last decade, 17 of the nation's 20                         1 F,    I       I
                                                                                           AIR_
               fastest-growing counties were located along the                    0*,ri
                                                                                      1970    1980    1990   2000    2010    2015
               coast. Nineteen of the 20 most densely populated                                          Year
               counties in the country are located along the coast.        Sources: Bureau of the Census, 1998; National Planning
               Coastal counties are also undergoing more develop-          Association, 1995

                                                                                                                                    3









               Fourteen of the 20 largest U.S. cities are located in the   and maintenance for localities (Thompson, 1993).
               coastal zone. The population for seven of these cities      Sprawl also overtakes farm and forestland and open
               exceeds one million people. In 1990, almost 113             space. It brings pollutants such as oil leaked from
               million people-about 45 percent of the U.S. popula-         automobile  's and chemicals leached. from suburban
               tion-lived in urban areas along the coast. In many          lawn S@. Watersheds where the maintenance of healthy
               large cities, the most rapid growth is occurring in the     conditions formerly depended on agricultural land
               outermost suburban areas. Rapid rates of growth             stewardship are often affected now by the actions of
               have occurred in "exurban" counties such as                 hundreds of small landowners, making the task of
               Spotsylvania, VA; Manassas, VA; and Calvert, MD,            developing effective, cooperative efforts all the more
               located along the outer metropolitan fringe of              difficult and necessary (USDA, 1996).
               Washington, DC. Dare, NC; Dorchester and Berke-
               ley, SC; and Virginia Beach, VA, typify southeastern
               U.S. counties where rapid population growth is
               fueled by economic development and relocating
               retirees.


               About 9,000 new, single-family homes are con-
               structed along the coast every week (NOAA, 1992).           An average of 2,000 new homes were built along the
               Another 6,700 housing units in multi-unit buildings         U.S. coast every day during the past 25 years. The
               are also built every week. Single-family housing            most dramatic growth since 1970 has occurred in
               developments frequently include large homes on              Florida and California, where an estimated 7.6
               large lots. For example, almost one-third of all new        million housing units were authorized for construc-
               home construction is for houses with more than 2,400        tion between 1970 and 1994. This represents 40
               square feet of floor area (Bureau of the Census,            percent of all new housing construction along the
               1994b). In addition, the median lot size in the U.S. is     coast. Single-family homes account for about 60
               about 17,000 square feet (Culliton et. al., 1992).          percent of all new housing along the coast. About
               Every day, about 1,300 acres of coastal lands are           453,000 new single-family homes are constructed in
               bulldozed under or paved over and converted to              coastal areas every year. Multi-unit dwellings (e.g.,
               urban land. Currently, about 8 percent of all coastal       duplexes, condominiums, apartments) are built at the
               lands are classified as urban. This is up from 3.5          rate of 303,000 units per year.
               percent in 1960. Urban lands account for about              The construction of single-family housing is more
               41,175 square miles of coastal areas, up from 17,862        common along the Atlantic Coast and in the Great
               in 1960.                                                    Lakes region than elsewhere. More than 62 percent
               As urban areas have grown along the coast, agricul-         of all new construction in these regions is for single-
               tural land has diminished. Farmland has declined            family dwellings. Multi-unit buildings are more
               from 160,649 square miles in 1982 to 140,570 in             predominant in the Pacific Region.
               1992-a decrease of 20,079 square miles. This                Seasonal Housing. Coastal areas are popular vaca-
               equates to an average loss of 0.7 acres of coastal          tion and retirement destinations (Table 1). The
               farmland per minute. This valuable land that pro-           growth in seasonal homes along the coast increased
               duces food and provides open space, wildlife habitat,       by more than 45 percent between 1960 and 1990.
               and clean water is increasingly at risk. The competi-       Seasonal housing is most heavily concentrated along
               tion for farmland-especially productive agricultural        the Northeast coast. In 1990, about 484,000 seasonal
               land-will intensify as the coastal population grows         homes (e.g., single family, cottages, condominiums)
               and technological innovations make it easier for            were located along the northeastern seaboard.
               people to live and work in more widely dispersed            Barrier island developments are home to a large
               communities.                                                portion of this housing. More than one-fifth of these
               The increasingly complex mix of urban and rural             seasonal dwellings are concentrated along the New
               land use also has natural resource impacts. Urban-          Jersey shore. Massachusetts (18 percent), New York
               ization brings streets and rooftops that gather             (17 percent) and Maine (16 percent) also account for a
               stormwater into drains and drainageways instead of          large share of second homes situated along the
               filtering it naturally through the soil. Sprawl results     Northeast Coast.
               in higher costs for paving and road maintenance,
               sewer and storm drain construction, water supply,

               4









                 Table 1. Leading states in coastal county seasonal homes,
                           1990                                                                   The Smart Growth Movement:
                                                                                                  A Response to Population and
                        State                        Seasonal Homes                                    Settlement Pressures
                        Florida                           408,328                      The population of coastal counties in Maryland grew
                        Michigan                          213,214                      from about 3.6 million in 1970 to almost 4.7 million in
                        New York                          142,194                      1997-an increase of about 3,250 people per month.
                        Califorr-da                       125,593                      This growth has yet to abate; on the contrary, an
                                                                                       increase of 750,000 people is projected for Maryland's
                        New Jersey                        100,529                      coastal counties between now and 2015.
                        Massachusetts                      88,642
                        Maine                              78,062                      Such growth has had an enormous impact on the
                                                                                       Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuarine system in the
                        Texas                              53,662                      United Sta 'tes. The Bay's watershed, radically changed
                        Wisconsin                          48,388                      since the onset of European settlement three centuries
                                                                                       ago, continues to undergo changes that reflect land use
                 Source: Bureau of the Census, 1998                                    across this 64,000-square-mile expanse. Polluted runoff
                                                                                       enters the bay from urban, suburban and agricultural
                                                                                       lands. About 40 percent of the land is no longer in its
                 More than 63 percent of seasonal housing in the                       natural state, and wetlands are still being lost at a rate
                 Southeast is located along the Florida coast. The area                of about eight acres per day (Chesapeake Bay Program,
                 from West Palm Beach to Miami is one of the nation's                  1997 on-line).
                 leading tourist destinations, accounting for 41
                 percent of all seasonal homes between Virginia and                    Around the Chesapeake Bay, sprawl is quickly
                                                                                       gobbling up open space and forested land. According
                 the Florida Keys. North Carolina and South Carolina                   to the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, more than 90,000
                 account for much of the remaining seasonal housing                    acres are consumed by sprawl each year in states
                 in the region.                                                        bordering the Bay. Today, four to five times more land
                                                                                       is used per person than was the case 40 years ago.
                 In the Gulf of Mexico, western Florida accounts for
                 almost 70 percent of all seasonal dwellings. Rapid                    An ever expanding population has resulted in higher
                 development has occurred along the state's south-                     wastewater flows to the Bay. Through increased
                 west coast in recent decades. Almost 14,000 new                       wastewater treatment and a ban of phosphorus-
                                                                                       containing detergents, point sources of phosphorus
                 seasonal homes were constructed near Ft. Myers in                     have been reduced by 70 percent since a peak in the
                 the 1980s. Another 10,000 seasonal dwellings were                     1970s. Recently implemented controls of nitrogen are
                 constructed in the 1980s in Collier County, where                     already reducing the levels of this pollutant entering
                 beach resorts such as Marco Island and Naples are                     the Bay from point sources, such as industrial facilities
                 located.                                                              and municipal sewage treatment plants (Chesapeake
                                                                                       Bdy Program, 1997 on-line).
                 Seasonal housing in Pacific coastal counties is most
                 heavily concentrated in California. About 60 percent                  In 1997, the.Maryland Legislature approved the "Smart
                 of all seasonal dwellings in the Pacific region are                   Growth and Neighborhood Conservation Initiatives."
                                                                                       ,The legistatio n earmarks state funding of infrastructure
                 located in the state. San Diego and Los Angeles                       log., roadssewers, schools) for new development to
                 counties@ are home to most of the state's seaside
                                                                                       growth areas along the Washington-Baltimore
                 second homes. In contrast, Washington accounts for                    metropolitan corridor and to established cities and
                 about 19 percent of second homes in this region.                      ,towns. Any development outside these growth areas
                 Hawaii, a tourist mecca, surprisingly represents only                 'would not receive state support (Sustainable Commu-
                 six percent (12,876 units) of the regional total.                     nities Network, 1997 on-line). A major objective of the
                                                                                       "legislation is to preserve Maryland's agricultural lands
                                                                                           green space. Without the legislation, it is feared
                 Michigan's extensive shoreline, rimming the Great
                                                                                    @ ,that some half-mil[lion acres of open space and farm-
                 Lakes, makes it the leader among Great Lakes states.                  land would be, lost over the next 20 years (Sustainable
                 It accounts for 56 percent of all coastal seasonal                    Communities Network, 1997 on-line). This effort-
                 dwellings in the region, followed by New York (16                     focusing state funds for infrastructure on areas that can
                 percent) and Wisconsin (13 percent).                                  accorrunodate growth without deleterious environ-
                                                                                       mental impacts-is, a major accomplishment.



                                                                                                                                                   5









                                                                                    Table 2. The environment as a voting issue: Exit polls,
                  Social Trends                                                     1982-1992

                At the cusp of the millennium, change in every                      Year Exit Pollster        Must Important Issues      Percentage
                aspect of our lives is both the trend and the norm.                 1982 CBS/NY Times         Unemployment                       38
                Our society is becoming more diverse. Some people                                             Env ironment                       3.
                                                                                    1984   LA Times           Government Spending                22
                grow more isolated from the environment; others                                               En@ Iironment                      4
                embrace the natural world. Complex technological                    1988   CBS/NY Times       Helping Middle Class               25
                systems (e.g., power grids, tankers, pipelines) are                                           En@ironment                        10
                increasingly vital, but their reliability depends on the            1990   Voter Research     Education                          26
                performance of people'.                                                    and Surveys        Env Iironment                      21
                                                                                    1992   Voter News         Economy/jobs                       12
                Thirty years ago, most Americans believed that                             Service            Environment                        5
                resources were essentially infinite and could be
                exploited forever. Most also believed that a Nation                 Source: Adapted from Ladd and Bowman, 1996
                that could send a man to the moon could, in a few
                short years, master any technological problem,
                including cleaning up river pollution and finding a
                cure for cancer. The government in that expansive era               ward events or if people feel their political leaders
                was viewed as the principal means for addressing                    are not mindful of their concerns. The "spike" of
                social ills and promoting progress. Today, marine                   interest in the environment in 1990, as shown in the
                resources and coastal areas are recognized as finite                table, may be attributed to this phenomenon.
                resources, capable of being harmed or lost by human
                activities (The Heinz Center, 1998). A balance be-                  Interestingly, as the environment has declined in
                tween use and conservation is sought. The principle                 intensity as a national issue, it has become more
                of "sustainability"2 is  invoked and decision-makers                potent politically at the state and local levels, where
                are encouraged to apply the precautionary principle3.               tangible choices must be made between competing
                Managers seek to achieve their objectives through                   interests. On the whole, however, pollsters find
                partnerships that build on public and private roles                 Americans' commitment to the environment to be
                and capabilities, because solutions and innovations                 broad-based, stable, and strong.
                often require the participation of all stakeholders.
                Perhaps the most far-reaching change is that most                   A 1996 poll gauged Americans' attitudes toward
                Americans today, and most companies and units of                    marine environmental issues (Spruill, 1997). It
                government, characterize themselves as envirortmen-                 documented widespread recognition of the ocean's
                talists.                                                            importance, concern about its health, and a sense of
                                                                                    responsibility to protect the ocean for present and
                Awareness about the Importance of Environmental                     future generations. This strong concern for the ocean
                Quality. A generation ago, the idea that the United                 makes the coastal and marine environment "an issue
                States should make a substantial commitment to the                  waiting to be made."
                environment was just beginning to come into focus
                as a result of myriad events and issues. Today, in                  Nongovernmental Organizations-Powerful New
                contrast, Americans of all classes and social groups                Stakeholders in Environmental Management.
                are deeply committed to a safe and healthy environ-                 Environmental organizations have become a potent
                ment. All of the modem environmental legislation,                   political force, perhaps the strongest single political
                and the sweeping federal role in protecting the                     force influencing coastal policy. As a point of refer-
                environment, stem from this evolution in public                     ence, the number of U.S. nongovernmental organiza-
                awareness about the importance of environmental                     tions (NGOs) concerned with coastal natural re-
                quality'.                                                           sources and environmental issues rose from 192 in
                                                                                    1970 to 560 in 1997 (National Wildlife Federation,
                The transition of the environment from an issue of                  1997,1970). The rise in numbers and influence of the
                limited concern to one of widespread concern                        environmental advocacy community is one of the
                occurred years ago. Today, surveys show that most                   fascinating institutional developments in recent
                Americans have turned their attention elsewhere                     decades.
                (Table 2). However, a "settled" issue like the environ-
                ment can return to national prominence after unto-


                6









                 These predominantly private-sector interests are            16.5 million. Interestingly, the number of inboard
                 willing to work with both landowners and govern-            boats, which are more likely to be found in saltwater,
                 ment agencies to conserve and manage the environ-           has tripled to 2.4 million.
                 ment, and they have considerable technical and
                 managerial capabilities and resources to offer. They        Both the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
                 focus public discourse and attention on issues of           and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) both
                 interest to them. Land trusts protect ecologically          compile information on saltwater fishing. The
                 important lands by purchasing them; these activities        USFWS reports that the number of saltwater anglers
                 are often undertaken in concert with public agencies        increased significantly between 1970 and 1985, while
                 as part of a regional strategy to protect the environ-      expenditures on saltwater fishing more than doubled
                 ment. Many NGOs provide additional      'research and       during the same time period (USFWS, 1997). NMFS
                 monitoring resources, and help track conditions and         reports that the estimated number of people partici-
                 issues. Occasionally, through adroit political and          pating in marine recreational fishing has leveled off
                 legal pressure, NGOs are instrumental in compelling         in the past five years (increasing by only one percent
                 industry or government agencies to favor environ-           since 1993) and now stands at over 12 million
                 mental protection over other possible outcomes.             (NMFS, 1998). These sources notwithstanding, one
                                                                             cannot draw conclusions about outdoor marine
                                                                             recreation as a whole based on trends in one activity@
                   Economic and Resource                                     Estimates of recreational use in coastal areas indicate
                   Trends                                                    the following (NOAA, 1`98 on-line):
                 Economic activities in the coastal zone and coastal                * Saltwater fishing generates expenditures of
                 ocean account for up to two percent of the U.S. Gross                over $5 billion annually; a total economic
                 National Product and are comparable in scope to                      output of $15 billion; total earnings of over
                 other important sectors of the economy, such as                      $4 billion; and over 200,000 jobs.
                 agriculture (Pontecorvo, 1989; Wilson and Wheeler,                 * More than 77 million Americans participate
                 1997). Recreation and tourism, waterborne com-                       each year in recreational boating activities.
                 merce, energy and mineral production, and fisheries
                 account for most of the economic activity in coastal               - The average American spends 10 recreational
                 areas.                                                               days on the coast each year.

                                                                             Perhaps a more useful indicator of the overall trend
                   Recreation and Tourism                                    in coastal and marine recreation is tourist visitation
                               .........                                     patterns. Foreign tourism is a critical component of
                 Outdoor recreation and tourism are the most signifi-        the overall U.S. tourism picture. Total foreign visita-
                 cant economic activities in the coastal zone. A study       tion to the United States micreased by 76 percent
                 in California documented that tourism alone ($9.9           between 1985 and 1995 (from 25.8 million to 45.5
                 billion) accounted for more than half of the state's        million) and in 1986, the United States was the
                 $17.3 billion ocean-related economic activity (Wilson       world's most popular tourist destination (Miller and
                 and Wheeler, 1997). The proportion of the U.S.              Auyong, 1991; Miller, 1993). More than 90 percent of
                 population that participates in at least one outdoor        visitation by foreign tourists takes place in states
                 recreation activity has increased from 89 to 94.5           "where beaches are the leading tourist destination"
                 percent between 1982-1983 and 1994-1995 (Cordell et         (Houston, 1996).
                 al., 1997). Miami Beach alone receives more visitors        Non-use va
                 than any National Park. Coastal states in aggregate                      lues. The non-use value of coastal re-
                 earn 85 percent of total tourist revenues (NOAA,            sources can be significant. A non-use value is a
                 1998 on-line).                                              measure of the intrinsic value of a resource (i.e., the
                                                                             value of the resource without any direct contact or
                 The number of recreational boats and participation          interaction by humans). It is a measure of the value
                 rates in saltwater fishing are potential measures of        people place on a resource simply due to its existence
                 recreational activity in the coastal zone. Since passage    in a certain condition (e.g., a protected beach or coral
                 of the Coastal Zone Management Act in 1972, the             reef). It may also be a measure of the possible future
                 number of recreational boats has nearly doubled to          use of the resource (beach or reef), or the assurance

                                                                                                                                       7









               that the resource will be available in the future in a             Figure 4. Waterborne crude oil imports and domestic
               certain protected condition. Assuming a certain level              crude oil production, 1973-1994
               of water quality, the Chesapeake Bay has a non-use
               value of $89 million (Bockstael et al., 1989). Thus,                  10'
               when non-use values are taken into account, the
                                                                                  ro 8-
               economic importance of oceans and coasts can be                    Im -
               very great.
                                                                                     6-
                                                                                  .4
               Importance of the Government's Role. The govern-                   E
                                                                                  @M` 4-
               ment plays an important role in providing the                      cc
               underlying conditions for coastal and marine recre-                   2
               ation and tourism. These include (1) ensuring a clean
               environment, (2) assuring coastal access, and (3)                     0
               promoting a safe operating environment. Given the                       1973         1978        1983          1988          1993
               economic importance of marine recreation and                                                     Year
               tourism, and the importance of the government role                          Domestic Production           Waterbome Imports
               in providing the basic underlying conditions for
               these activities, much more could be done to under-                Source: National Research Council, 1997a. Import data from U.S.
               stand, document, manage, and promote coastal and                   Army Corps of Engineers, 1973-1994, Production data from
               marine recreation.                                                 Energy Information Administration, 1995


                                                                         _7
                                                                                  -more than half of the oil it consumes, and imports are
                                                               u6m,, -5
                                                                         ts       growing steadily (Figure 4) (American Petroleum
                                                      _71-77 40 t'2               Institute, 1996).
               International Trade. International trade continues to
               be a major factor in worldwide economic growth.                    Foreign-flag vessels have largely carried the more
               The United States now leads the world in the value                 than fourfold increase in U.S. waterbome interna-
               of imports and exports. Moreover, U.S. waterborne                  tional trade since World War 11. In 1994, foreign flag
               foreign trade is projected to grow at an average                   vessels carried about 98 percent of U.S. foreign trade
               annual rate of 3.7 percent (Figure 3). The value of                by tanker and 85 percent by cargo liner. To accommo-
               exports and U.S. commodity imports was almost $1.2                 date expanding trade, oceangoing ships have grown
               trillion in 1994. Commodity exports rose from 5                    considerably in size, complexity, and speed. The
               percent of the gross domestic product in 1984 to 7.5               increase in international waterborne trade and its
               percent in 1994 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1995).                 growing importance to U.S. prosperity, as well as the
               Shipments of oil and petroleum products constitute a               demands posed by changes in world fleets, require
               major component of U.S. trade. The U.S. imports                    that maritime transportation be highly efficient. As a
                                                                                  result, waterways management is an increasingly
                                                                                  important determinant of system efficiency.
               Figure 3. Trend in U.S. waterborne commerce                        Domestic Trade. The face of domestic marine
                  1.4-                                                            transportation has changed as well (Marine Cabotage
                                                                                  Task Force, 1997). Since 1965, large containerized
                                        Forecast
               Z                                                                  cargo vessels have replaced breakbulk cargo vessels.
               0  1L.U               TotalITrad                                   In domestic shipping, barges have replaced tradi-
                                                                                  tional self-propelled ships as the vessel of choice. In
                                                                                  the ore-carrying Great Lakes fleet, large, self-unload-
               con 0.6                                                            ing vessels have replaced older, less-efficient vessels.
                                                                                  Moreover, in many regions, passenger ferries and
                                       Nor.                                       excursion boat services are growing.
                  0.2
                     0                                                            Changes in Ports. The focus of all this activity is the
                       1985         1990          1995        2000       2005     port. The U.S. waterways transportation system
                                                  Year                            includes about 145 ports that each handle more than
                                                                                  1 million metric tons of cargo annually. The top 10
               Source: National Research Council, 1996                            ports handle a total of more than 900 million metric

               8









                  Figure 5. Volume and costs of dredging by the U.S.               cially concerning the growing need to deepen and
                  Army Corps of Engineers and industry, 1963-1994                  widen channels to accommodate the latest ships.
                               I                        A                    /600  Interestingly, as documented in Figure 5, the volume
                     600                                             V_            of dredging fluctuates little from year to year. Simi-
                  r.          A Yards                                              larly, there is abundant anecdotal evidence that
                  0                      -4i \ /7@                            -
                                                           X.J               400   obtaining approvals for dredging continues to be a
                                                                                   complex and time-consuming process.
                    400

                                                               A
                                                                                    oward a Safe and Efficient Maritime Transporta-
                                                      V     V VV
                                                                             200-6 tion System. The requirement for a safe and efficient
                     200                                                      C)   marine transportation system has recently garnered
                  U                       rs                                       national attention. A coordinated national effort to
                                                                                   highlight the trends and address the related issues is
                       0         i                                           0     being led by the interagency Committee on Water-
                        1963          1973            1983           1993          ways Management (U.S. Coast Guard, in press).
                                                                                   Policy coordination at the national level, combined
                  Note: Estimates do not include disposal costs and are current, not with action at the local port level, can help ensure an
                  constant dollars.                                                adequate infrastructure, including appropriate
                  Source: National Research Council, 1997b                         channel and berth depths, real-time navigation
                                                                                   information, modem port facilities, and efficient
                                                                                   intermodal connections.
                  tons annually. These ports need to keep pace with the
                  growth in trade as well as other changes in ships and
                  shipping. They also must continue to accommodate
                  other users of the waterfront, and provide other                                             M i
                                                                                     Enerair and                     nerals
                  benefits (e.g., recreational opportunities, marine
                  habitat protection).                                             About 50 percent of oil consumed by the United
                                                                                   States in 1994 was imported. Current consumption
                  Despite their importance, many U.S. ports show                   suggests that by 2010, the U.S. will import over 60
                  signs of stress. A study by international tanker                 percent of its oil and gas. This dependence on foreign
                  operators concluded, "It is an anomaly that tankers              oil is troublesome because, as experienced in the
                  which approach U.S. terminals do so without the                  1970s, the international oil market is subject to
                  support of a modem vessel traffic system, often base             unpredictable price changes and disruptions. This
                  their approach on 50-year-old charts, are instructed             makes the United States vulnerable to economic
                  to approach the berth on less than adequate water                impacts by geopolitical developments and instability
                  draft, and finally moor at a berth which was de-                 in world oil markets.
                  signed to accommodate ships much smaller than a
                  modem tanker" (Intertanko, 1996).                                Oil and Gas Production. Almost one-fifth of the
                                                                                   nation's produced oil comes from federal offshore
                  Ports are being affected by important changes in two             lands (Minerals Management Service, 1997a) (Figure
                  areas (Bookman, 1996). The first is the rapidly                  6). Revenues and royalties earned from this produc-
                  changing intermodal freight transportation market,               tion contribute significant funding to the federal
                  which moves increasing amounts of cargo on ever-                 government. In 1997, the government received $1.4
                  more-demanding schedules. The survival of a                      billion in bonuses, $68 million in rent, and $3.5 billion
                  general cargo port now depends on its capability to              in royalties from offshore petroleum activities
                  receive and transfer goods as quickly as possible. A             (Energy Information Administration, 1998). In
                  1991 survey found that half of public ports and two-             addition, the offshore oil and gas industry employs
                  thirds of container ports face growing problems                  tens of thousands. In the Gulf of Mexico and other
                  providing seamless transportation links among                    regions, some 38,000 people are employed offshore
                  waterways, highways, and railroads (National                     on drilling rigs and platforms, and another 46,000 are
                         I
                         EfD@olia












                  Research Council, 1993).                                         employed in the industry onshore.

                  The second factor is the increasing number and                   Energy production occurs offshore of Alaska, Califor-
                  complexity of environmental regulations that pertain             nia, and in the Gulf of Mexico. In 1996, the Gulf of
                  to ports (National Research Council, 1997b), espe-               Mexico outer continental shelf (CICS) alone produced

                                                                                                                                                  9








                Figure 6. Federal OCS oil and gas production,                  632 ft. deep. In 1996, the deepest well was in water
                           1954-1995                                           7,620 ft. deep. It is anticipated that production will
                    30                                                         extend to even greater depths in the next century.
                                                                               However, development of these resources will
                    25                                                         require advances in production technologies to
                 "0                                                            address adverse oceanographic conditions, handle
                 0
                 c@ 20                        G@V                              geohazards, and accommodate irregular ocean
                 t@                  Natural                                   bottom relief that complicates pipelines and founda-
                 E2 15                                                         tions (NOAA, 1998).

                    10.-
                                                                               As a result of increasing technology and the need to
                 0                                 "bir                        reduce reliance on imports of oil and gas, U.S.
                    5                                                                 g is showing a general increase in both explor-
                                                                               drillin
                    0  1                                                       atory and development wells. Although no explor-
                       1955       1965        1975         1985        1995    atory wells were drilled on the Pacific OCS in 1997,
                                              Year                             other regions recorded a high level of exploration,
                                                                               combining for a national total of 353 exploratory
                Source: Minerals Management Service, 1997a                     wells, up from 327 wells in 1996. A 10-year record of
                                                                               601 development oil wells was set in 1997; this was
                                                                               up from 562 wells in 1996 (Minerals Management
                over 98 percent of the nation's OCS gas and over 85            Service, 1997c).
                percent of OCS oil (Minerals Management Service,
                1997b). Similarly, the Gulf of Mexico OCS accounted            Three-dimensional seismic acquisition, modeling,
                for 79 percent of new oil field discoveries and 70             and interpretation have greatly increased the effi-
                percent of new gas discoveries, reinforcing the Gulf's         ciency of oil and gas exploration. This has resulted in
                future as the nation's primary domestic oil and gas            the drilling of fewer exploratory wells and increased
                producer (Energy Information Administration, 1998).            rates of discovery. In addition, renewed interest in
                                                                               deep water is being credited to technological ad-
                Between 1995 and 1997, OCS oil production rose                 vances and horizontal drilling. Improvements in
                from 19 percent to 20 percent of U.S. total oil produc-        technology allow companies to identify reservoirs in
                tion. OCS gas production rose from 26 percent to 27            progressively deeper water. Extended reach or
                percent of U.S. total gas production between 1997              horizontal drilling allows for enhanced production,
                and 1998, an increase for the third consecutive year           increased production in borderline fields, and
                (Minerals Management Service, 1998 on-line). These             additional protection in environmentally sensitive
                recent offshore development trends may begin to                areas. It is estimated that one- to two-thirds of all
                reverse a long trend of decline in U.S. domestic               new wells will be horizontally drilled over the next
                petroleum production.                                          five years (NOAA, 1998).

                About 45.6 billion barrels of oil and 268 trillion cubic       Alternative Energy Resources. Recent research has
                feet of natural gas are estimated to be on U.S. off-           shown that most continental margins contain vast
                shore federal lands. These are estimates of undiscov-          reservoirs of gas concentrated in frozen, icelike gas
                ered resources that could be developed using con-              hydrates within the top several hundred meters of
                ventional technology (Minerals Management Service,             sediment. These vast deposits of methane hydrates
                1997a). By comparison, more than 416 million barrels           found in deeper oceanic areas are a promising, but
                of oil and 4.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were         challenging, new resource. A conservative estimate of
                produced on the federal outer continental shelf                methane gas in gas hydrate deposits is massive; it is
                (OCS) in 1995 (Minerals Management Service,                    believed to contain about twice the carbon held in all
                1997d).                                                        conventional fossil fuels on earth (NOAA, 1998).

                Trends in Technology. U.S. offshore energy produc-             In addition, technology exists for harnessing renew-
                tion is occurring in water depths exceeding one mile,          able and non-hydrocarbon energy resources from the
                far offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. Rapid and dra-             oceans. These include the heat content (thermal
                matic technological advances, recently coupled with            gradient) in the world's oceans and the mechanical
                relief from paying royalties on deepwater produc-              energy manifested by various ocean-water motions
                tion, have combined to encourage the trend toward              (e.g., surface waves, tides, and currents). While
                deep water. In 1965, the deepest well was in water             technologies to use these resources have been

                10









                proven, the sources themselves have not yet proven           duction of meat animals-poultry, swine and beef-
                to be economically viable, except in isolated, small         over free-range harvesting. This intensification of
                applications (NOAA, 1998).                                   farming practices has affected coastal environments
                                                                             in three ways. First, ploughed lands tend to lose their
                Sand and Gravel. Coastal and ocean areas contain             topsoil unless careful conservation practices, such as
                vast deposits of sand and gravel. Portions of the            forested riparian buffers, are employed. Over the
                nation's OCS, especially in the Northeast, contain           years, huge amounts of sediment from farmlands
                abundant supplies of this resource. Sand and gravel          have run off into America's rivers, estuaries, and
                used in construction and in most public works                coastal ocean. Second, fertilizers and pesticides
                projects account for the largest tonnage of minerals         applied in increasing amounts to both farmlands and
                produced from the ocean (NOAA, 1998). Nearshore              suburban lands over many years end up in runoff,
                and offshore sand and gravel supplies are also               ultimately finding their way into rivers, estuaries,
                important sources used for beach nourishment                 and coastal oceans, where their negative effects on
                projects along barrier island communities (National          marine habitats are being documented. Third, animal
                Research Council, 1995).                                     feedlots and plants produce concentrations of
                                                                             organic wastes, which, until recently, were not
                Other Minerals. Mineral deposits in U.S. waters              required to be strictly controlled. These wastes have
                (other than sand and gravel) include massive phos-           contributed to widespread pollution and marine
                phate beds beneath the continental shelf from North          habitat degradation in several major estuaries. Many
                Carolina to northern Florida; titanium-rich, heavy           of the coastal environmental trends discussed in
                mineral sands off the East Coast from New Jersey to          subsequent sections of this report have their origin,
                Florida, and off the West Coast from Oregon to               at least in part, in the intensification of farming
                northern California; gold-bearing sand and gravel            practices.
                deposits off Alaska; barite deposits off southern
                California; manganese nodules on the Blake Plateau           Fisheries Trends and Food Production. Even as the
                off South Carolina and Georgia and off Hawaii in the         global demand for food grows at a record pace,
                Clipperton Fracture Zone; and cobalt and platinum-           growth in the supply of food is slowing. Growth in
                rich crusts off of Hawaii. Gold was recovered by             the supply of food from fisheries is no exception.
                dredging in state waters off Nome, Alaska, from 1986         Worldwide, the 1990s have witnessed a leveling off
                to 1990 (NOAA, 1998).                                        of fisheries production for direct human consump-
                                                                             tion. This is due in no small part to overfishing and
                                                                             habitat degradation. The majority of economically
                                                                             valuable marine fisheries are now at or beyond their
                  Food Supply
                                                                             limits of sustainability (Food and Agriculture Organi-
                                                                             zation, 1997). Because yields have leveled off, the
                The world population increases by about 80 million           annual addition of 2 million tons to the world's
                each year; this rate of growth is projected to continue      animal protein supply, which historically came from
                for the next few decades. As population and afflu-           growth in the fish catch, must now come from fish
                ence increase, so does the demand for food. A                farming, poultry production, or some other source.
                growing imbalance between population growth and
                food production may be one of the most important             The United States is fortunate in that it can afford the
                global issues in the next century. Coastal and ocean         higher costs that are the consequence of resource
                regions play important roles in food supply. Fisheries       scarcity. Moreover, faced with fisheries declines of its
                and marine aquaculture make obvious contributions,           own, the U.S. depends increasingly on imports to
                but there are more subtle relationships as well, such        meet domestic consumption. Much of the imported
                as the effects of farming practices on coastal habitats.     seafood, especially high-value edible products such
                                                                             as shrimp and salmon, come from marine aquacul-
                Trends in Farming Practices and Coastal Habitats.            ture (National Marine Fisheries Service, 1996 on-
                Traditionally, a growing demand for food was met by          line).
                converting natural lands to arable lands. More
                recently, in this century, higher-yielding varieties of      Trends in Marine Aquaculture. Marine aquaculture,
                grains and other crops have been employed, along             the farming of marine finfish, shellfish, crustaceans
                with increasing amounts of fertilizer, to steadily           and seaweed, as well as the ocean ranching of
                increase unit crop production and land productivity          anadromous fish, is rapidly growing around the
                (Food and Agriculture Organization, 1998). Trends in         globe. In the United States, freshwater aquaculture is
                animal production have favored factory-style pro-            an expanding industry; however, marine aquaculture









              has yet to achieve economic success beyond a limited         overfished, and 448 (61 percent) are of unknown
              basis. Constraints to the industry have included             status (NMFS, 1997 on-line). In order to achieve
              conflicts concerning the use of coastal and ocean            long-term potential yield, it is necessary to end
              space, public concerns about the effects of aquacul-         overfishing and allow depleted stocks to rebuild.
              ture on water quality, and ecological concerns
              stemming from the potential for cultured animals to          Marine Mammals. Although marine mammals,
              escape into wild populations. Poor water quality and         including dozens of species of whales, dolphins,
              high labor and land costs have also inhibited marine         porpoises, seals, walruses, and manatees, are not
              aquaculture in the United States (National Research          harvested in U.S. waters, they are important compo-
              Council, 1992; Goldburg and Triplett, 1997). How-            nents of coastal marine ecosystems. Of the 163
              ever, because seafood consumption is increasing              marine mammal stocks in U.S. waters, there is
              while yields from capture fishing are reaching the           sufficient long-term population information to
              limits of sustainable returns, the opportunity exists        describe trends for only 55 (33 percent) of the stocks;
              for U.S. aquaculture to supply the growing demand,           the status of the remaining 108 (66 percent) stocks is
              and for U.S. marine aquaculture to make a significant        unknown (NMFS, 1996). Of those for which informa-
              contribution.                                                tion is available, eight (5 percent) are declining, 24 (15
                                                                           percent) are known to be stable, and 23 (14 percent)
              Aquaculture production (freshwater as well as                are believed to be increasing. Fifty-four stocks of
              marine) now represents 20 percent of U.S. consump-           marine mammals are classified as "strategic" under
              tion, with production increasing at an average annual        the Marine Mammal Protection Act. These are of
              rate of 6.4 percent over the last decade (World              major concern because they are depleted, have
              Resources Institute et al., 1998; USDA, 1998; NMFS,          excessive mortality, or are listed as endangered or
              1997). About 10 percent of this production is marine         threatened under the Endangered Species Act. A few
              aquaculture. The largest U.S. marine aquaculture             species of major concern include the blue, fin, and
              production is in salmon, with 13,906 metric tons in          sperm whales in both the Atlantic and Pacific
              1996. This represents a doubling of production               Oceans, the northern right whale in the Atlantic,
              within a decade. The production of oysters, which            Steller sea lions in Alaskan waters, Hawaiian monk
              were the mainstay of U.S. marine aquaculture in the          seals in Hawaii, and manatees in Florida.
              1980s, remained stable; the recent decline in harvest
              was probably due to environmental factors.                   Shellfish. The harvest of oysters, clams, and mussels
                                                                           along the coast of the United States is a tradition that
                                                                           can be traced back many centuries to the native
                                                                             merl
                                             ''Resp
                     yin   Ig Marine                                       A      cans who first inhabited these shores. Hun-
                                                                           dreds of huge and long-forgotten middens, the waste
                                                                           heaps of oyster and clam shells that dot the coast, are
              Fisheries. U.S. fishery landings have increased over         testimony to the original abundance of these animals,
              the past 50 years, but have now reached the maxi-            and their importance as a source of food. Today, most
              mum capacity of our oceans and coastal waters to             Americans consider shellfish more a delicacy than a
              produce fish. Landings in Alaska have increased              staple. Nevertheless, the harvest, processing, distribu-
              dramatically, while they have declined in other              tion, and consumption of shellfish, particularly oysters,
              regions for many species. In any given region,               make up an important industry, supporting thousands
              commercial fisheries for "new" stocks have devel-            of jobs and generating hundreds of millions of dollars
              oped (Alaska walleye pollock), while others have             for the nation's economy.
              declined (New England groundfish), and others have
              remained fairly stable (Gulf of Mexico menhaden).            In 1995, over 24.8 million acres of marine and estua-
              In addition, recreational fishing represents a signifi-      rine waters in the contiguous United States were
              cant portion of the landings for some marine species,        classified as shellfish growing waters under a pro-
              such as striped bass in the Northeast, spotted               gram to protect human health that is jointly adminis-
              seatrout in the Southeast, red drum in the Gulf of           tered by coastal states and the National Shellfish
              Mexico, and Pacific salmon on the West Coast. In a           Sanitation Program (Figure 7). Of the 4,230 growing
              1997 report to Congress on the status of U.S. Fisher-        areas involved, 59 percent were approved for har-
              ies, using a methodology that recognized 737 marine          vest; 17 percent were conditionally approved,
              species and stock groups, the National Marine                restricted or conditionally restricted; and only 11
              Fisheries Service estimated that 86 species (12              percent were prohibited-the lowest percentage on
              percent) are overfished, 10 (1 percent) are approach-        record for this category (NOAA, 1997). The 1995
              ing an overfished condition, 193 (26 percent) are not        commercial harvest from these waters totaled 77

              12









                         Figure 7. Class@fled growing waters of the contiguous                            in turn, clog navigable waters, interfere with swim-
                         United States, 1966-1995                                                         ming and boating, outcompete native submerged
                            25-                                                                           aquatic vegetation (SAV), and with excessive decom-
                                                                                                          position, lead to oxygen depletion. The resulting
                                                                                                          harmful algal blooms can cause fish kills or manatee
                            20  - -----------------------------------------------------------     ---
                                                                                                          deaths, and in some instances, may threaten human
                         cn                     classified acres                                          health.
                         :3
                         0  15  - ------------------------ ------------   ---------------------------
                         "a
                         @It
                                                                                                          In the summer of 1997, newspaper headlines focused
                            10  . ... .............  ................         -----------                 on an area of nutrient overenrichment and oxygen
                                                harvest limited acres                                     depletion, known as the "Dead Zone," that season-
                               5. ..............*-----------------------  ........ 1---      ......       ally covers approximately 7,000 square miles of the
                                                                                                          Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the Mississippi
                                                1       .4         -4       -4         4                  River. Runoff from agriculture, including farmland
                                  1966       1971     1974       1980      1985      1990 1995            areas in the upper Midwest, is believed to be the
                                    Publication Years of National Shellfish Register                      primary culprit. In the Chesapeake Bay region that
                         Source: NOAA, 1998 p                                                             same summer, the Governor of Maryland closed
                                                                                                          fisheries and warned citizens about seafood safety
                                                                                                          because of a bloom of the toxic species Pfiesteria
                                                                                                          piscicida. In this instance, the likely cause was the
                         million pounds of oysters, clams and mussels worth                               inadequate handling of agricultural wastes, primarily
                         approximately $200 million at dockside (NOAA,                                    from poultry.
                         1997).
                                                                                                          Since the end of the 1940s, population growth,
                                                                                                          increased fertilizer use, animal husbandry, and
                           Environmental Quality                                                          changes in land use have contributed to increased
                                                                                                          nutrient inputs to coastal waters. It has been esti-
                         Coastal and ocean waters are among the most                                      mated that 40 percent of estuarine and coastal waters
                         productive and valuable natural systems on Earth.                                are not "fishable or swimmable," primarily because
                         They are also among the most threatened. Many of                                 of nutrients and bacteria from urban and agricultural
                         the nation's coastal areas are under increasing                                  runoff and municipal wastewater discharges (U.S.
                         pressures from population growth and related                                     EPA, 1996 on-line). Recent studies have shown that
                         development. The pressures from growth include                                   air deposition of nitrogen is also a significant con-
                         increased solid waste production, higher volumes of                              tributor to nutrient overenrichment of some coastal
                         urban nonpoint runoff, loss of green space and                                   and marine waters.
                         wildlife habitat, declines in ambient water quality,                             Pathogens. Viruses, bacteria, and protozoa can cause
                         and increased demands on wastewater treatment,                                   diseases in plants, people, and other animals. In
                         potable water, and energy supplies. These pressures                              humans, illnesses range from typhoid and dysentery
                         adversely affect the quality of coastal and marine                               to minor respiratory and skin diseases (U.S. EPA,
                         waters and associated habitat.                                                   1996 on-line). These organisms may enter waters
                         Water Quality.Several key issues are associated with                             through a number of routes, including inadequately
                         coastal water quality. These include the status of                               treated sewage, stormwater drains, septic systems,
                         nutrient levels and the extent of contamination by                               runoff from livestock operations, and overboard
                         pathogens, chemicals, oil, debris, and litter. These                             sewage discharge from recreational boats. In excess,
                         have been priority issues for coastal managers in                                they contribute to closures of shellfish beds and
                         recent decades, and are likely to be the focus of                                swimming areas, fish kills, and seafood consumption
                         coastal water quality management efforts in the                                  warnings. The good news is that approved shellfish
                         foreseeable future.                                                              harvest waters are at an all-time high, and overall,
                                                                                                          the condition of shellfish harvesting waters in the
                                                                                                          United States is improving (NOAA, 1997).
                                                  1@ssified_aF!@   .. . . ....
                                     -----------                  S


                                    e   ............ ................  ...... -----------













































                         Nutrients. Nutrients are essential for healthy aquatic
                         communities. In excess levels (especially nitrogen                               During 1996, there were at least 2,596 individual
                         and phosphorus compounds), however, they can                                     closings and advisories for ocean, bay, and Great
                         overstimulate the growth of aquatic weeds and algae                              Lakes swimming beaches due to bacterial contamina-
                         (Figure 8). Excessive growth of these organisms can,                             tion. Over 80 percent of the beach closings and
                                                                                                                                                                                        13









              Figure 8. Major marine ecological disturbances, 1970-1996







                                                                                                                      320
                                                                                                                      300
                                                                                                                      280
                                                                                                                      260
                                                                                                                      240
                                                                                                                      220
                                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                      180
                                                                                                                      160
                                                                                                                      140
                                                                                                                      120
                                                                                                                      100
                Harmful Algal Blooms


                           Coral Events V' --cat
                   Public Health Events @            -                             L", @        I         I-          80
                           Fish Events \ .   -@@                                                  -    I
                         Invertebrate Events                                                                          60
                              Mollusc Event
                                                                                                                      40
                                       s
                              Sea Turtle Events
                                Sea Grass Events                                                                      20
                                     B
                                       d
                                      ir Events
                                    Mammal Events                                                                     0
                                               IN   Id"l, A                        -011@
              rource: Epstein, 1998           N05,@' 1@ _10@ @ -105          4)   N05                      NCO 1@0

              advisories that year were based on monitoring that         trations of chemicals which have been banned from
              detected bacteria levels exceeding beach water-            use in the U.S. (NOAA, 1997a). Meanwhile, reported
              quality standards. The number of beach closings due        releases of toxic chemicals to surface waters de-
              to pathogen contamination continues to decrease as a       creased by 4.1 million pounds (a reduction of more
              number of metropolitan areas upgrade their sewer           than 10 percent) from 1994 to 1995 (U.S. EPA, 1997b).
              systems and separate their storm drains and sewer          This reduction is a reflection of changes in industrial
              systems (NOAA, 1998).                                      practices (e.g., source reduction, installation of
                                                                         pollution control equipment, increased recycling and
              Toxic Chemicals. Toxic organic chemicals are synthetic     reuse of waste as raw materials, production changes,
              compounds that contain carbon, such as polychlori-         and fewer one-time release events) (NOAA, 1998).
              nated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins, and the pesticide
              DDT. These synthesized compounds often persist             Over the last decade, the chemical contamination of
              and accumulate in the environment because they do          aquatic sediments has been recognized as a serious
              not readily break down in natural ecosystems. Many         problem in U.S. coastal waters. "Hot spots" of toxic
              of these compounds cause cancer in people and birth        chemicals have been shown to alter and reduce
              defects in birds and fish.                                 bottom-dwelling organisms, to interfere with cellular
                                                                         and physiological processes, and to cause disease in
              Since 1940, more than 70,000 synthetic chemicals           fish. Most "hot spots" are found in areas of high
              have been introduced into the marine environment.          vessel traffic, industrial activities, or poor flushing,
              There impacts are widespread and varied, such as           and are often located near urban centers (USEPA,
              the Mobile Delta, where excessive levels of mercury        1994). Other adverse economic impacts of contami-
              in finfish resulted in the closing of some fishing areas   nated sediments include delays and rising costs to
              in the early 1970s and again in the early 1990s (U.S.      maintain dredging in navigational waterways. This is
              EPA, 1997). Efforts to reduce chemical loadings to         due to the potential danger of resuspending toxic
              marine waters have had some success. Away from             chemicals in the water column, and the need to find
              the influence of urban sources, offshore monitoring        acceptable disposal sites for dredged sediments
              of toxic chemicals has shown a decline in the concen-      (NOAA, 1998).

              14









                Oil Contamination. In 1996, approximately 4,200 oil           Similarly, lost or neglected fishing gear also contrib-
                spills occurred in coastal areas and in the open ocean        utes to the depletion of commercial fisheries. While
                and nearshore. Spill sources range from minor                 numbers for the United States are unavailable, Japan
                marina activities to one-time releases from tankers           estimates that in 1992, the Japanese fishing industry
                (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1995), with               spent $4.1 billion dollars in boat repairs resulting
                major tanker spills accounting for only 5 percent of          from damage caused by marine debris. Sources of
                the volume of oil spills. Fixed facilities and offshore       marine debris include vessels and beachgoers, but
                exploration and production platforms contribute 15            recent studies show that 80 percent is likely to be
                million gallons of oil pollution to the world's ocean         from indirect sources such as street litter, improperly
                bodies each year. In contrast, 363 million gallons of         sealed waste receptacles, landfills, and from com-
                oil per year reaches the ocean in runoff from land            bined sewer overflow events. An international treaty
                and municipal and industrial wastes. In fact, the             (Annex V of MARPOL) banning the dumping of
                yearly road runoff from a city of five million could          plastics from ships and regulating other garbage
                contain as much oil as one large tanker spill (Ocean          discharges has been in place since 1988, and im-
                Planet, 1995). Natural oil seeps discharge 62 million         provements are being made to reduce marine debris
                gallons of oil into marine waters each year. Effects on       from ships.
                organisms from oil spills can be acute, such as fish
                kills from initial contact with the toxic fractions of
                petroleum, or subtle, such as chronic effects on
                                                                                Poilt*tsources' of 1@qllution
                reproduction that become evident as toxic chemicals
                concentrate through the food web of an ecosystem.             Point sources' include discharges of municipal and
                Effects on human populations are realized through             industrial wastewater via pipelines, releases from
                economic losses, such as those associated with the            vessels, and the dumping of materials, such as
                loss of tourism or a fishery. Particularly susceptible to     dredged sediments, into coastal and ocean waters. In
                injury from releases of oil are exposed shorelines,           the United States, more than 2,000 sewage treatment
                shallow reef environments, estuaries, mangrove                plants, municipalities, and industrial facilities
                forests, and wetlands (U.S. EPA, 1993).                       discharge effluents into estuarine and coastal waters.
                The volume of oil spilled in the United States has            Every year, approximately 2.3 trillion gallons of
                declined steadily over the past two decades. Al-              effluent are discharged into coastal and marine
                though large, uncontained spills occur rarely, the            waters from sewage treatment facilities. While most
                public remains concerned about them. Nevertheless,            of this sewage meets secondary treatment standards
                the data show a gradual decline in the volumes                prior to disposal, nutrients and pathogens from such
                spilled. The U.S. Coast Guard reports that 15.2               discharges can contribute to the degradation of local
                million gallons were spilled in 1973, declining to 2.1        marine ecosystems, creating "dead zones" and
                million gallons in 1993 (USCG, 1998). The trend in            forcing the closure of shellfish beds and swimming
                the number of oil spills, however, shows 9,014 spills         areas. Nutrient loading also can significantly degrade
                report@d in 1973, peaking at 10,644 in 1979, reaching         coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems.
                a low of 4,841 in 1987, and climbing to 8,972 in 1993.        Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major
                This trend, however, may be the result of increased           point source of pollution in coastal areas where the
                vigilance and reporting (USCG, 1998).                         population is significantly increasing. As a result of
                Marine Debris and Litter. Some 267 species of marine          major public and private investments over many
                organisms are known to ingest or become entangled             years, there is a long-term trend toward higher levels
                in marine debris that cause injury and sometimes              of wastewater treatment. The number of facilities in
                death (Marine Mammal Commission, 1995). Coastal               coastal counties providing less than secondary
                communities can lose millions of dollars in annual            treatment declined by 80 percent between 1986 (409
                tourism revenue, experience declines in commercial            facilities) and 1996 (85 facilities), while the number of
                and recreational fish stocks, incur damages to                facilities prckviding secondary treatment or better
                vessels, and see declines in property values as a             increased by 4 percent (3,233 facilities to 3,346
                result of marine debris. Coastal communities in New           facilities). The number of facilities providing less
                                                                              than secondary treatment is projected to decline by
                Jersey spend $1.5 million each year to remove debris          56 percent between 1996 and 2016 (85 facilities to 37
                from beaches and coastal waters to prevent a repeti-          facilities), while the number of facilities providing
                tion of the 1987 and 1988 beach seasons, when $2              secondary or more advanced treatment is projected
                billion in tourist revenue was lost as a result of debris     to increase by 16 percent (3,346 facilities to 3,967
                washing ashore.                                               facilities).
                                                                                                                                       15









             The trends towards more widespread wastewater                approximately 300 million cubic yards of dredged
             treatment and higher levels of treatment are reflected       material each year from inland and coastal waters,
             in environmental measurements of biochemical                 only 60 million cubic yards (20 percent) of which are
             oxygen demand (BOD.), an indicator of pollution.             dumped in open ocean waters. Materials disposed of
             Coastal monitoring across the Nation demonstrated            at ocean dump sites have to meet established water
             that there was an average 19 percent decline in BOD5         quality and sediment quality criteria.
             from 1990 to 1997 (U.S. EPA, 1998). Similarly, a 20
             percent decline in BOD from 1986 to 1996 was
                                      5
             found in coastal counties (Pacheco, 1999 pers. comm).             X
                                                                                                     urces o
                                                                               -,.onpoiht S&
             More than 2.8 billion gallons of industrial w
                                                            astewater
                                                                                        41__@V
             per day are discharged directly into U.S. ocean
             waters (U.S. EPA, 1994). Many of the chemicals               One- to two-thirds of pollutants contributing to the
             discharged into marine waters can be toxic even in           degradation of coastal and marine waters are from
             minute concentrations, and can compromise the                nonpoint sources, and include sediments, organic
             water column, contaminate sediments, and concen-             materials, nutrients, pathogens, and toxic chemical
             trate in marine organisms. Exposure to these chemi-          compounds. The problem is difficult to address
             cals and metals can pose risks of acute or chronic           because it includes runoff and seepage from agricul-
             toxicity to marine organisms. In addition, the risks to      tural and urban areas, air deposition onto land and
             predators and humans rise when toxins become                 water, and multiple methods of transport. Nation-
             concentrated through the food chain. In some                 wide, it has been estimated that nonpoint sources
             locations, thermal pollution from electric generating        account for more than half of the suspended solids,
             plants has been shown to stress marine organisms by          nutrients, fecal coliform, and metals entering coastal
             raising the ambient temperature of the water.                waters each year. Runoff from nonurban areas,
             Operating vessels sometimes directly discharge oil,          sewage spills and overflows, urban stormwater
             sewage, garbage, and nonindigenous species into              runoff, and combined sewer overflows are often
             marine waters. Some pollutants enter coastal and             responsible for seafood advisories and shellfish-bed
             marine waters from direct discharges (e.g., sewage           and beach closings.
             from vessel toilets, ballast water exchange), while          Estuarine Eutrophication. Estuarine eutrophication
             others may be a result of leaching (e.g., anti-fouling       is an issue of critical concern to coastal managers.
             agents, paints). Once discharged, pathogens in
             sewage can impact drinking water intakes (e.g., m            Although it is a natural process, human activities can
             the Great Lakes), and result in closings of shellfishing     accelerate eutrophication by increasing the levels of
             and swimming areas. At the same time, discharged             nutrients and organic substances entering estuaries.
             nutrients can increase eutrophication levels.                Agricultural runoff, urban runoff, leaking septic
                                                                          systems, and sewage discharges are the primary
             Oil and other chemical contaminants washed or                sources of nutrients that enter coastal waters. These
             discharged into the ocean may become suspended in            substances can overstimulate the growth of algae and
             the water column, ultimately settling in sediments           aquatic plants, creating conditions that interfere with
             and accumulating in marine organisms. Discharged             recreational uses, and the health and diversity of
             garbage adversely affects marine life (by entangle-          native fish, plant, and animal populations (CEQ,
             ment or ingestion), and can also cause vessel damage         1998).
             by getting tangled in propellers or sucked into engine       Algal blooms result from increased nutrient concen-
             intake valves. The potential negative consequences of        trations and often lead to indirect effects such as
             nonindigenous species carried in ships'ballast water         increases in turbidity and decreases in dissolved
             are an increasing concern across the Nation.                 oxygen concentrations. Algal blooms sometimes have
             In U.S. coastal and ocean waters, dredged material is        additional impacts, such as the loss of recreational
                                                                     d.   opportunities, reduced aesthetics, declines in com-
             the primary waste transported and directly dispose           mercial fisheries, and loss of habitat. Perhaps the
             Disposal of dredged material can increase suspended          greatest concern at present is the apparent increasing
             solids in the water column and smother benthic               occurrence of red tide algal species, such as Pfiesteria
             organisms. If the sediments are contaminated, the            piscicida, that can kill fish and that also have major
             potential exists for acute or chronic toxicity to            implications on human health, both by direct contact
             develop in marine organisms and become a risk to             in estuarine waters and through bioaccumulation in
             human health (U.S. EPA, 1991). The U.S. disposes of          fish tissues.

             16









                 Figure 9. Estuaries exhibiting anthropogenic eutrophication effects



                                                 Each symbol represents an estuary exhibiting pronounced
                                  WA             eutrophication symptoms. The anthropogenic influence on                    ME
                                                 these symptoms is noted as:

                                 Ok              Nitrogen Yield and Susceptibility                                  NH      North
                                                     High                                                  W       MA      Atlantic
                                                     Intermediate

                                                     Low                                              PA    W      Al

                                                                                                       MD        Mid-
                           Pacific CA                                                                VA      DE Atlantic

                                                                                                   NC


                                                                                                SC

                                                                            M5 AL                     South
                                                          TX         LA                               Atlantic


                                                                            0
                                                                            Gulf of
                                                                            Mexi

                                                                                             FL
                  Source: NOAA, 1998


                 Eutrophication-related problems occur in many of              distribution of reported improvements, while the
                 our nation's estuaries, mostly during the summer              greatest number of estuaries for which conditions
                 months. The problem varies by region. For example,            have worsened are in the Gulf of Mexico. Figure 9
                 extreme levels of chlorophyll a, a measure of algal           shows the locations of estuaries with high levels of
                 biomass, have been observed in Mid-Atlantic, Gulf of          eutrophic symptoms that can be linked to human
                 Mexico, and South Atlantic estuaries. Hypoxia and             activities.
                 anoxia, conditions of low dissolved oxygen, are most
                 widespread in the Gulf region, where over 80 percent          Future Trends. The aggregate picture indicates an
                 of estuaries are depleted of dissolved oxygen. Toxic          increase in the severity and extent of eutrophication
                 algal blooms occur in nearly half of the Nation's             in the future, with greater than 60 percent of cur-
                 estuaries, with the greatest number of occurrences            rently monitored estuaries expected to show worsen-
                 observed in the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic, and           ing symptoms of eutrophication. Future trends are
                 Pacific Coast estuaries.                                      dependent on the levels of municipal waste treat-
                                                                               ment, the effectiveness of stormwater management in
                 Reports of worsening trends in concentration, spatial         newly developed areas, the extent and practice of
                 coverage, or frequency of occurrence of toxic blooms,         agricultural activities, and trends in transportation
                 hypoxia events and nitrogen are about equal to                (e.g., vehicle emissions). It is important to note that
                 improving trends on a national basis. For trends in           nutrient reduction strategies have helped to reverse
                 SAV coverage, however, the number of estuaries                or halt eutrophication events in Maryland's Patuxent
                 reporting worsening conditions is three times as              River and Florida's Tampa and Sarasota bays.
                 great as those reporting improvements. The overall            Because of projected population increases, however,
                 trend in eutrophic conditions, which integrates               the need to limit nutrient inputs to estuaries must be
                 trends in several indicator parameters, shows that            more emphasized as the Nation moves into the next
                 conditions in 14 percent of U.S. estuaries have               century.
                                                                                                                            North
                                  .   i                                                                                     t
                                                                                                               @@A Ia.
                                                                                                                 Mid
                                                                                                                Atia,
                                                                                                  4VA






                                                                                                      South
                                                                                           @Atl
                                                                            If of
                                                                            Mexico



































                 improved since 1970 while 31 percent of the estuaries
                 studied reported that conditions have worsened. For
                 55 percent of the estuaries studied, conditions have
                 not changed or there was insufficient information for
                 trend evaluation. Regionally, there is a fairly even

                                                                                                                                        17













                                    ,------- ----
                                4,
                                                       "'V
                          q        . . ...
                          " ;V  '""' ",
               . ............ .. . .
                          , 7 o , 7, @ @ , _,_                                  @,J, Table 3. Trends in U.S. wetland acreage
                                   . . ..... .@ TR
                                                                                VIA
                      17,     77
                                                                                                                        Million Acres
                                                                                      Waiands@Type       n-dd-19     rnid-19704mid-1980s mid-1990s
               Coastal areas, including mangrove swamps, wet-
               lands, estuaries, seagrass beds, and coral reefs,                      Estuarine                5.59       5.53       5.10       5.09
               provide critical habitat, including essential spawning                 Fresh Water
               and nursery areas, for living marine resources.                            Marshes            33.07      24-31      25.88       25.01
               Wetlands serve as filters for land-based contami-                          Shrub               11.00     15.51      15.60       17.07
               nants, and together with coral reefs, buffer against                       Forested           55.09      55.15      50.39       47.93
               storm surges and help prevent coastal erosion.                             Other                2.70       5.35       5.14        5.79
               Human activities have changed, degraded, or                            i@@Acreage-            107,45     105.85     102.12      100.91
               destroyed coastal habitats, threatening many species                 *Note: Totals may not agree with sum of components due to
               of economic and recreational importance. Continued                   independent rounds.
               population growth and associated development                         Source: President's Council on Environmental Quality, 1998
               pressures along the coasts reduce the quantity and
               quality of the nation's habitat resources. Until                     Almost half of the estimated total acreage of U.S.
               recently, many coastal habitat resources have been                   coastal wetlands was lost by the mid-1970s. Losses
               undervalued or not fully appreciated in terms of                     in Louisiana exceed those in any other state, averag-
               people's dependence on them.                                         ing 24,000 acres annually for the period from 1978 to
               Habitat Loss. Coastal habitats critical to healthy                   1990. The average annual wetland loss is estimated
               ecosystems are being lost and degraded at a rapid                    to be from 70,000 to 90,000 acres on nonfederal lands.
               pace. While the rates and reasons differ from one                    Coastal wetlands continue to decrease in area,
               habitat type to another, the pressures all stem from                 although the rate of loss has declined over time.
               anthropogenic activity, and the consequences are                     About 89 percent of national wetland losses from the
               always deleterious to the environment.                               mid-1970s to the mid-1980s occurred in the Southeast
                                                                                    (Boylan and MacLean, 1997).
               Wetlands. More than one-third of the nation's threat-
               ened and endangered species live only in wetlands,                   Seagrasses. Historically, severe losses of seagrasses
               and more than half use wetlands at some point in                     have occurred as a result of water quality issues, a
               their lives (U.S. EPA, 1998 on-line). In the Southeast,              problem that cannot be rectified solely by replanting.
               over 90 percent of the commercial catch and 50                       Seagrass losses in estuaries and nearshore waters are
               percent of the recreational catch are of fish and                    due primarily to excessive nutrient loadings and
               shellfish dependent on wetlands. Still, years of                     sedimentation. Direct damage from vessels (mooring
               continued degradation, or their conversion to                        scars, propeller scars, vessel wakes) has also harmed
               cropland or developed land, have resulted in wet-                    seagrass beds. Fishery harvest methods can also
               land losses, particularly coastal wetlands. Wetlands                 result in devastating losses to seagrass beds. Bottom
               are among the most highly altered ecosystems                         trawling operations, in particular, turn over and
               worldwide. Table 3 summarizes total wetland losses                   disrupt significant amounts of bottom habitat
               by type since the mid-1950s. The period from the                     (Dayton, 1998). This loss of seagrass causes undesir-
               mid-1970s to mid-1980s saw the greatest wetland                      able and often irreversible conditions. The ramifica-
               losses; since then, the rate of loss has decreased.                  tions of these losses include increased shoreline
                                                                                    erosion, water column turbidity, and degraded water
               Coastal wetlands (both tidal and nontidal) have been                 quality. The permanent loss of seagrass beds elimi-
               destroyed by direct (e.g., draining, dredging, land                  nates most associated habitat functions that support
               fill, spoil disposal) and indirect (e.g., sediment                   other living marine resources.
               diversion, hydrologic alteration) human impacts                      Significant losses of seagrasses have occurred in the
               associated with development, resource extraction,                    Chesapeake Bay and in the Gulf of Mexico. Over 50
               and agricultural activities (NOAA, 1998). Coastal                      ercent of the historical seagrass cover has been lost
               wetlands are stressed by nonpoint source pollution                   p
               and are at risk from demands for housing, roads, and                 in Tampa Bay, 76 percent in Mississippi Sound, and
               recreation facilities, as well as by commerce and                    90 percent in Galveston Bay. Gulf of Mexico losses
               industry. Natural processes, such as erosion and                     are related to population growth and the accompany-
               subsidence also contribute to wetlands losses.                       ing declines in water quality. Seagrass losses have
                                                                                    also occurred in Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay.

               18








                 Extensive damage to seagrass beds from propeller              Efforts are now under way on every coast to identify
                 scarring has been reported in Florida coastal waters,         the habitats that are essential for every all life stages
                 particularly in the Florida Keys National Marine              of all managed fish species. Once these habitats have
                 Sanctuary.                                                    been identified, the regional councils can act directly
                                                                               to minimize the negative effects. of fishing. The
                 Coral Reefs. Coral reefs are considered to be the             councils can also call attention to, and influence,
                 world's most diverse marine ecosystems, home to               other important factors such as nonpoint source
                 hundreds of thousands marine species. The United              pollution, eutrophication, and physical habitat loss
                 States has approximately 16,879 square kilometers of          resulting from coastal development or other activities.
                 coral reefs that harbor about 550 commercially
                 valuable species (NOAA, 1998). Threats to coral               Habitat Alterations as the Result of Unintentional
                 reefs have increased over the last 20 years and have          Introductions of Non-Indigenous Species. Marine
                 resulted in global declines. Although actual data are         flora and fauna are entering and taking hold in new
                 not available, it is estimated that approximately 58          environments, often disturbing or displacing native
                 percent of the world's coral reefs are at risk from           species, at an increasing rate as a direct result of
                 human activities; about 27 percent of these are at            human activity, especially global shipping (National
                 high risk. Ten percent of the world's reefs are se-           Research Council, 1996). While many introduced
                 verely damaged, with the expectation is that this             species do not establish themselves or have a major
                 number will increase to 30 percent over the next two          impact, some do have detrimental effects on the
                 decades (NOAA, 1998).                                         ecosystem and human society, including the
                                                                               economy, recreation and health (NOAA, 1994).
                 Overfishing and destructive fishing practices, along
                 with coastal development, land-based pollution from           Species enter new environments by many vectors.
                 deforestation, agriculture and marine spills and              One important pathway is transport by ship, in
                 pollution, pose the greatest threats to reefs. Changes        ballast water, in sediment on the ship, or on the
                 in species composition result from overfishing and            ship's hull or cargo (National Research Council,
                 may ultimately result in ecosystem changes. Coral             1996). The frequency of unintentional introductions
                 diseases have increased dramatically. Even recre-             by ship of harmful species has increased, in part as a
                 ation, if not regulated, causes damage to coral reefs         consequence of rapid growth in global transportation
                 (World Resources Institute et al., 1998). Although it is      systems, which link continents ever more tightly and
                 not a problem in the United States, the growing               thus increase the chances that an entrained organism
                 international trade in harvested corals and coral             may survive a sea voyage and live to reproduce in a
                 species contributes to the degradation and destruc-           new environment.
                 tion of corals worldwide.
                                                                               International efforts are under way to reduce the
                 Habitat Regulation and Restoration. To date, most             threat of unintentional introductions of species.
                 habitat restoration activities have focused primarily         However, most control measures remain voluntary or
                 on wetlands. Several states have enacted laws to              only partially effective. The sad fact is that many
                 regulate activities in wetlands, and local jurisdictions      nonindigenous species have already become estab-
                 have adopted wetland protection ordinances or have            lished, with deleterious consequences, and more will
                 changed the development permit process to foster              become established, altering coastal and marine
                 protection of these habitats. Most coastal states have        habitats in undesirable ways in the future.
                 significantly reduced losses of coastal wetlands.
                 Some states and local governments have also estab-
                 lished nonregulatory programs to help protect                   Coastal Hazards
                 wetlands. Federal programs focus on regulation
                 (section 404 of the Clean Water Act), economic
                 incentives and disincentives (tax deductions for              Coastal storms damage property, take lives, and
                 selling or donating wetlands to a qualified organiza-         disrupt ecosystems as a result of high winds, storm
                 tion), and acquisition (establishing national wildlife        surge, flooding, and shoreline erosion. Coastal
                 refuges). In most instances, the restoration of               locations are also exposed to long-term hazards such
                 seagrass beds and coral reefs have lagged behind              as chronic coastal erosion, potential sea-level rise,
                 wetland restoration projects.                                 and global climate change. The costs of these events
                                                                               to society are climbing both nationwide and world-
                 In 1996, regional fishery management councils were            wide as coastal settlements place more people and
                 directed to identify and protect essential fish habitat.      property at risk. Moreover, the frequency, magnitude,

                                                                                                                                          19









               and consequences of coastal hazards may change in                      rising 2.5 to 3.0 mm every year (10-12 inches per
               the future as changes occur in the global climate.                     century). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
                                                                                      Change has forecasted a rise in global sea level of
               Natural hazards currently cause about $50 billion in                   5mm per year. This totals either 20, 49 or 86 cm by
               damages each year in the U.S. (NOAA, 1998a). Losses                    the year 2100, within the range of uncertainty
               in 1970 were about $4.5 billion       6. Of about $500 billion         (Bijlsma, 1996). A rise in sea level could increase
               in disaster-related losses between 1975 and 1994, 80                   storm frequencies and associated storm surges,
               percent were weather-related. Given the significant                    which in turn, could accelerate erosion and associ-
               costs of catastrophic weather events, the focus has                    ated habitat loss; increase salinity in estuaries and
               shifted in recent years to reducing losses through                     freshwater aquifers; alter tidal ranges in rivers and
               advances in weather prediction, regional planning,                     bays; change sediment and nutrient transport, and
               and emergency preparedness.                                            also the pattern of chemical and microbiological
                                                                                      contamination, in coastal areas; and increase coastal
               Trends in the Frequency and Magnitude of Coastal                       flooding. Particularly at risk are saltwater marshes,
               Hazards. The theory that global warming will make                      coastal wetlands, coral reefs, coral atolls, and river
               storms stronger and more frequent is under intense                     deltas (Figure 10). In the worst scenarios, the number
               study. The Earth's average surface temperature has                     of homes in the coastal floodplain vulnerable to
               risen approximately 0.6'C (1'F) in the last century                    coastal hazards would more than double (NOAA,
               and the nine warmest years have all occurred since                     1998b).
               1980 (Titus and Narayanan, 1995). If computer model
               predictions of warming are correct, under some                         Increasing Potential for Loss. The societal cost of
               scenarios, a 50 percent increase could occur in the                    coastal hazards is determined not only by annual
               destructive potential of large storms. There are also                  variabilities in their occurrence, but also by the
               arguments, however, to the idea that a warmer                          increasing population at risk and the growing
               atmosphere will result in more destructive storms. In                  numbers and value of structures, businesses, and
               short, the data are incomplete as to whether global                    other manifestations of economic activity in coastal
               warming will lead to more destructive coastal                          areas. Coastal populations, societal expectations,
               storms.                                                                economic activities and personal consumption all
                                                                                      have micreased greatly in the past decades. Together,
               One thing is certain-relative sea level is rising in                   these changes have increased the exposure of the
               many regions, and global warming may speed this                        total U.S. population to damages from coastal
               process. Along much of the U.S. coast, sea level is                    hazards.

                                                                                      Prior to 1989, no single event caused insured losses in
               Figure 10. Dry land loss by 2100 without shore protection              excess of $1 billion. Since 1989, losses from several
                                                                                      coastal storms have exceeded this figure (Institute for
                   3,000,                                                             Business and Home Safety, 1998)7          . The largest of
                                                                                      these catastrophes was Hurricane Andrew, with
                                                                                      estimated insured losses of $15.5 billion.

                   2,000-
                                                                                      In the wake of the annual onslaught of news cover-
                                                                                      age of storms, other hazard-related disasters and
                                                                                      their costly results, many people have concluded that
               9   1,000-                                                             coastal storms are becoming more frequent and
                                                                                      devastating. However, careful analysis of climate
               0
                                                                                      data and loss records shows that more frequent or
               0                                                                      more intense storms are not necessarily the cause, or
                       0                                                              at least the sole cause, of increasing damages. Rather,
                          NE       MA SA           SW F LA         Other        WC    there is more at risk today (Pielke and Landsea,
                                      Sea Level Rise Scenario      GOM                1998). Three factors account for the increasing
                                                                                      potential for loss: (1) adjustments to the value of the
                        @i @@
                        N Baseline 0 50 cm            E 100 cm         Z 200 cm       dollar largely as the result of inflation, (2) increasing
               Note: NE-Northeast; MA-Middle Atlantic; SA-South Atlantic;             population and growing settlement densities in
                   SWF-Southwest Florida; LA-Louisiana; Other GOM-Other               coastal areas, and (3) the nation's personal wealth,
                    Gu@qf Mexico; WC-West Coast.                                      which has increased dramatically over the years. All
               Source: ritus et al., 1991                                             of these factors combine to increase the exposure to,

               20









                  Table 4. Estimated U.S. losses associated with hurricane           portation, energy, and water resource sectors of the
                  activity (in 1995 dollars)                                         economy. They also make possible advance warnings
                                                                                     of violent weather that can provide valuable time for
                                  Number of Hurricanes with Losses Valued at         evacuations and preparedness activities. Today,
                                         Greater than a Billion Dollars              about 90 percent of severe weather events can be
                                Greater      Greater      Greater                    predicted with confidence; in areas where the most
                    Years        than $1     than $5      than $10    Per Year       advanced technology and methods are not yet in use,
                   1925-1929        2            2            2          177         the prediction rate is 60 percent. Meteorologists can
                      1930s         4            1            1          2.6         now make 48-hour predictions of temperature and
                      1940s         8            4            2          5.6         precipitation with the same confidence they brought
                      1950s         4            2            2          3.7         to 12- to 24-hour forecasts 20 years ago. Similar
                                                                                     advances in coastal storm tracking and advance
                      1960s         6            5            3          5.2         warnings enable more timely preparations and
                      1970s         5            2            1          2.7         coordinated evacuations.

                      1980s         3            2            1          2.2
                  11990-19951       4     1      1     1      1     1    6.6         Building codes that incorporate hazard-resistant
                                                                                     construction standards have proven very effective in
                  Source: Pielke and Landsea, 1998                                   reducing the cost of disasters, as has the appropriate
                                                                                     siting of structures in areas where they are less likely
                  and the consequent property losses from, coastal                   to suffer wind and water damage or be affected by
                  hazards.                                                           coastal erosion. From September 21-30, 1998, Hurri-
                                                                                     cane Georges left a trail of destruction in the Carib-
                  When the loss record is normalized to correct for                  bean region and across the U.S. Gulf Coast. Damage
                  these underlying changes, the picture is very differ-              reports from various locations along the hurricane's
                  ent (Pielke and Landsea, 1998). Instead of increases in            path told an interesting story about the degree to
                  losses, normalized damages actually decreased in the               which deaths and property losses from coastal
                  1970s and 1980s; nor are losses in the 1990s unprec-               storms can be prevented by preparedness and
                  edented (Table 4). Pielke and Landsea conclude that                mitigation. The Virgin Islands reported no deaths
                  "All else being equal, each year the U.S. has at least a           and little major damage. With recent hurricanes in
                  1 in 6 chance of experiencing losses related to hurri-             1989 and 1995 on everyone's mind, the islanders
                  canes of at least $10 billion (in normalized 1995                  followed evacuation and preparedness orders; many
                  dollars)."                                                         structures had been rebuilt or upgraded to the latest
                                                                                     building codes. In contrast, Puerto Rico, only a short
                  Thus, long-term efforts to prepare and plan for                    distance away, incurred at least $2 billion in dam-
                  coastal hazards, and to mitigate their effects, are                ages. Puerto Rico had not suffered a "direct hit" in
                  necessary to save lives and to prevent or mitigate the             recent years, and the island was less prepared than
                  ever-increasing potential for property losses in                   its nearby neighbor.
                  coastal areas.
                                                                                     Managing Coastal Erosion. The nation's shorelines,
                  More Effective Prediction, Preparedness, and Re-                   especially the sandy types that extend for 2,700 miles
                  sponse. Experience has shown that the property                     from the coast of Maine to Texas, are vulnerable to
                  damage and loss of life from coastal hazards, includ-              coastal hazards. Sand is carried by water and wind
                  ing storms and erosion, can be minimized through                   between offshore bars and the beach, across the
                  planning and mitigation. Better predictions, fore-                 dunes, through coastal inlets, and throughout the
                  casts, and warnings provide timely and targeted                    entire littoral zone. Complicating the picture is the
                  evacuations of high hazard areas. Forecasters can                  projected rise in sea level over the long term (Bijlsma,
                  now predict climate changes for up to a year, and                  1996).
                  weather for a week or more. These advances have
                  come about as the result of major long-term invest-                The impacts of rising sea level include inundation,
                  ments in the science of numerical weather prediction.              flooding, erosion, and saline intrusion into coastal
                  The improved skill and lead-time of today's forecasts              aquifers. Clearly, an environment so dynamic, and
                  save hundreds of millions of dollars a year in the                 threats so dramatic, pose unique problems for those
                  United States.                                                     who live or build in these areas. Structures built too
                                                                                     close to the shoreline are often threatened by erosion.
                  Advances in climate prediction and weather forecast-               The degree of protection, management, or human
                  ing are particularly useful to the agriculture, trans-             intervention that may be needed to counter coastal

                                                                                                                                                    21









               Figure 11. The shiftftomfixed structures to beach
               restoration and nourishment to manage erosion                    Governance and
                  100-                                                          Management
               V -
               0                                Beach Nourishmen
               U  60-                                                        The great number of activities that occur in the
                                                                             coastal zone and ocean are governed by a complex
               <  20-                           Rigid StructuT____           and often fragmented framework of laws, regula-
               _60  04                                                       tions, and practices at the federal, state, and local
                        1950s     1960s      1970s     1980s      1990S      levels (National Research Council, 1997). The re-
                                              Decade                         sources affected are diverse, as are the resource users,
                                                                             and management efforts struggle with diverse goals
               Source: Hillyer, 1996                                         that sometimes are incompatible. Single-purpose
                                                                             legislation that serves specific goals well has also
                                                                             produced separate management regimes that require
               erosion depends on the nature of the shoreline and            a great deal of coordination. Moreover, while private
               the prevailing uses of the adjacent area. For devel-          ownership predominates on land, large areas of
               oped communities with water-dependent economic                marine resources are in the public domain.
               activities such as harbors and resorts, the strategy of       Three fundamental trends are occurring in coastal
               choice is usually to protect the existing infrastructure      and ocean area governance and management. First,
               and maintain the beaches. For eroding shorelines that         on an international scale since 1973, the idea of the
               are less developed, the decision becomes more                 oceans as a "commons" whose resources and space
               difficult (National Research Council, 1985). The              are open to all has been supplanted by new prin-
               choice is either to stabilize the shoreline at some           ciples codified in the Law of the Sea Convention,
               environmental and economic cost, or to retreat from           which (1) recognize the rights of nation-states to
               the shoreline and let nature takes its course, also at        establish 200-mile exclusive economic zones over
               some environmental and economic cost. When the                ocean resources and uses, and (2) authorizes regional
               shoreline is to be protected, the choice is often between     management arrangements for ocean uses, such as
               hard stabilization (e.g., groins and jetties) and soft        international fisheries management and environmen-
               stabilization techniques (e.g., beach nourishment).           tal protection. Second, federal environmental man-
               The differences between types of shorelines and               dates have established special ocean and coastal
               erosion situations often make it necessary to consider        management areas, and have increased the national
               a variety of shoreline protection measures (National          capacity to plan for and manage the coastal zone.
               Research Council, 1995). Nevertheless, a clear shift          Third, integrated management approaches are
               from hard protective structures to beach nourishment
               techniques has occurred in engineering practices for
               shoreline stabilization (Figure 11). On the whole,            Figure 12. Establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones
               beach nourishment is considered less disruptive to
               the environment, but projects require periodic                      90
               maintenance to maintain their effectiveness (National               80
               Research Council, 1995).                                         W
                                                                                0  70
               Despite the demonstrated success of planning,                    2  60
               preparedness, and mitigation, many coastal property
                                                                                0
                                                                             M g   50
               owners do not obtain insurance coverage for dam-              @ 0
                                                                             0 J
               ages from coastal hazards, especially flooding and                  40
               chronic erosion (Nfiletti, 1997), or take necessary and
                                                                                   30
               appropriate mitigation measures. Property owners in
                                                                             Z.R
               high-risk areas tend to turn to federal disaster relief             20              _4
               programs, shifting the burden to taxpayers. Educa-                  10
               tion and public awareness of coastal hazards, their                   0
                                                 each Noun@hmen
                                                 ig Structu
                                        R i @de@













               costs, and the societal advantages of mitigation may                                                         1-1) 9@1  4-0
                                                                                                                    C_@' -00 9D       -Cb
               help to alleviate this situation, and, ultimately, reduce              @011 101, 1!@  1110 -10 -110 -Of @@ 101, gli g:@
               the cost of coastal hazards to society.                                                      Year

                                                                             Source: Smith, 1986


               22









                coming into use that bring together diverse stake-          address the marine transport of radioactive and
                holders to address economic, environmental, and             hazardous cargoes. Land-based sources of marine
                social demands placed on finite ocean and coastal           pollution, conservation of marine mammals, high
                resources.                                                  seas fishing practices, and management of Antarctic
                                                                            fisheries have all received significant international
                International Developments. United Nations delib-           attention. Clearly, under the framework of the
                erations on the Law of the Sea led most nations in the      international Law of the Sea, there is a growing
                1970s and 1980s to establish zones of exclusive             worldwide capacity to reach and implement impor-
                economic jurisdiction over ocean areas and resources        tant agreements on difficult ocean resource and
                that extend offshore for 200 miles (Figure 12). This        management issues.
                trend has continued in the 1990s, and has led to
                increases in resource utilization, such as fisheries        Growth in National Mandates and Capabilityfor
                development and offshore energy production.                 Managing Oceans and Coasts. As a matter of na-
                                                                            tional policy, states have the primary responsibility
                The other major international development during            for setting comprehensive policies and managing
                this era was the establishment of regional or use-          their coastal zones8. The influence of states on their
                focused entities that have planning, management,            coastal zones and the adjacent coastal ocean, and
                and enforcement authorities (Van Dyke, 1998). In a          their capacity to manage these areas, have grown
                remarkable display of the "greening" of international       over the course of many years (Hershman, 1996).
                diplomacy, the London Convention has been greatly           This is, in part, a consequence of the growing number
                strengthened to control ocean dumping. An interna-          of federal mandates to manage the oceans. These
                tional convention was recently negotiated to address        mandates have generally been accompanied by
                the management of cross-jurisdictional and migra-           funding to implement them, which, in turn, has
                tory fish stocks. Measures also have been taken to          resulted in increased federal, state, and local capaci-
                promote fishing vessels' compliance with interna-           ties to manage coastal zones, ocean areas, and their
                tional conservation and management efforts on the           uses. Figure 13 provides a cumulative look at the
                high seas. Steps have been taken to more effectively        growth, over time, of some federally chartered


                Figure 13. Growth infederally approved coastal and ocean planning and management programs, 1974-19891

                      180-
                             NOAA Programs
                      160-   N Coastal Zone Management
                      140-        National Marine Sanctuary
                   0              National Estuarine Reserves

                      120-
                             L,'-rj' Sea Grant
                      100-   n Fishery Management Plans

                             U.S. EPA
                   0
                      80-    E3 National Estuary Program
                   0

                      60-


                  Z
                      40-



                      20-
                                                                                                                      R.
                                                                                                               7-,


















                                                                             % . . . .
                                                               R






                                        P3
                                         131
                       0
                                            0                                           11@    `y      1*1
                                    -01,    @11    @011                                                              @Zl      cl
                                                                           Year

                                                                                                                                   23









             coastal and coastal ocean planning and management           involve (1) a regional or ecosystem focus, (2) accurate
             programs. It indicates that long-term growth has            information on the state of the environment (that can
             occurred in national mandates for managing the              only come from significant investments in science
             oceans and coasts, and also, by extension, the capac-       and monitoring), and (3) collaboration between
             ity of states and others to implement those mandates.       government agencies, varying levels of government,
                                                                         and private-sector interests. Examples   of successful,
             Along with the growing mandates for managing                innovative, integrated ocean and coastal manage-
             oceans and coasts, the national awareness of the need       ment efforts abound in every coastal region. A few
             for management, and the technical capability to             examples include inshore lobster fisheries in the Gulf
             accomplish management tasks have also grown.                of Maine; estuarine protection in South Carolina;
             Widespread public awareness of coastal issues, their        innovative environmental planning and management
             complexity and responses to them has become an              in the Florida Keys; and restoration and protection of
             important factor in stewardship of the coastal zone. A      urbanized estuaries in California.
             recent review conducted by the National Sea Grant
             Program and other agencies found that informal              Still, formidable obstacles remain. They include
             marine education has been extensive and growing in          bureaucratic obstacles in the form of agencies that
             the US for many years (NOAA, 1998). Major devel-            seek to protect their "turf," economic issues posed by
             opments have included growth in the extent and              stakeholders who want to advance their own finan-
             quality of media coverage of marine and coastal             cial interests, and legal concerns of constituencies
             issues, and proliferation of aquaria and other institu-     that want to achieve their goals through legislative
             tions that feature public displays and learning about       action. Political obstacles occur where jurisdictional
             oceans and coasts. Another bright spot is the mainte-       boundaries do not coincide with natural, ecological
             nance and growth, over many years of high quality           boundaries. Nevertheless, a well developed marine
             graduate marine and coastal education programs              area governance and management system is evolving
             that have produced adequate numbers of trained              in response to the experience being gained across the
             professionals to meet national needs Uournal of             Nation. Innovative partnerships are also harnessing
             Marine Education, 1998).                                    the expertise and resources of private industry and
                                                                         nonprofit organizations. These constituencies, often
             Other advances in the capability to achieve manage-         the target of government regulation in the past, are
             ment objectives have come about as the result of            introducing innovations into systems that have been
             investments in and applications of technology.              largely dominated by insiders accustomed to tradi-
             Remote sensing, imaging technology and "smart"              tional, hierarchical management approaches (Na-
             instruments have brought new data and ways to               tional Research Council, 1997).
             present and analyze new information. Modeling and
             simulation have become important aide to consensus
             building and decision-making. Marine biotechnology            Concluding Observations
             advances, in addition to leading to tremendous new
             economic opportunities are also leading to new
             indicators and tools that can help protect the environ-     One topic runs like an undercurrent throughout this
             ment (Biotechnology Research Subcommittee, 1995;            report-increasing population and its associated
             Zilinskas and Colwell, 1995). Communications and            developments, requirements, and burdens. Popula-
             information technology advances have helped                 tion growth and associated increases in consumption
             managers reach out to new constituencies and bring          drive changes in settlement and pollution patterns.
             in new ideas.                                               They stimulate the demand for marine recreation,
                                                                         world trade, and oil and gas. They are the catalyst for
             Growing Reliance on Integrated Management.                  intensified farming practices and the
             Managing the oceans and coasts is an interdiscipli-         overexploitation of fisheries. Human activities and
             nary endeavor requiring integrated approaches. This         consumption lie behind the loss and degradation of
             is because a broad spectrum of issues must be               marine habitats. Even where the environment is
             considered to manage resources, safeguard ecosys-           cleaned or protected in coastal and nearshore areas,
             tem health and biodiversity, and allow economic uses        the press of people threatens to overturn progress.
             that conflict minimally with one another, and that          Even natural disasters and changes to shorelines are
             cause minimal harm to the environment. Slowly but           of concern primarily because people stand or build in
             surely, integrated approaches to management are             harm's way. If population control is "the issue" for
             emerging to meet these demands. They generally              the 21st century, then it was "the issue" in the 20th

             24









              and 19th centuries as well. Fortunately, society has
              consistently risen to the challenge, initially through
              the promotion of public health, then through the
              control of pestilence and disease, and more recently
              by revolutionizing food production. Perhaps the
              ultimate challenge will be to learn how to live in
              harmony with the Earth.

              Trends point toward outcomes; however, missing is
              any meaningful sense of direction concerning what
              conditions will prevail in the future. That is because
              future conditions are not completely, mechanistically
              driven. To the contrary, an informed citizenry's politi-
              cal choices drive management efforts to socially
              desirable ends. In other words, the future is in our
              hands. The debate should focus on goals for the future
              and how to achieve them. Information about present
              and projected trends merely informs the dialogue.

              Goals can be set to favor the economy, the environ-
              ment, or to find an acceptable balance somewhere in
              the middle. Unfortunately, policies and choices that
              favor population growth or resource exploitation
              often harm the environment and, ultimately, retard
              economic growth and harm public welfare. Similarly,
              policies that favor the environment work to the
              detriment of society because of the harsh social costs
              of artificially limited opportunities. As a result there
              really is only one socially acceptable outcome-to
              achieve an appropriate balance between economic
              development and protecting and preserving the
              environment. The key is to ensure that a healthy
              coastal and marine environment is available for
              future generations.























                                                                                                                           25








               End Notes                                                   Ref erences


              1. Who would ever have imagined 30 years ago that a
              two-digit date code for computer systems, which              4-       6&
              were just coming into widespread use, would
              threaten to disrupt every quarter of society, from          Bureau of the Census. 1998 (on-line). URL: http:
              banking to electric power to transportation, just a few     wwwcensus-gov /population /www /estimates/
              years later, as the calendar date switched from 1999        popest.html
              to 2000?


              2. Sustainable development has been characterized as
                                                                                            P          Lfti* d n,,.
              meeting the needs of the present without compromis-                                                 -11  M,-@
                                                                                             @1, WO A
                                                                                         'A
              ing the ability to meet the needs of the future.
              3. The precautionary principle calls for conservative       Bureau of the Census. 1998 (on-line). URL: http:
              action in the face of uncertainty.                          wwwcensus.gov /population/www /estimates/
              4. Wilderness Act (1964), National Environmental            popest.html
              Policy Act (1970), Clean Air Act (1970), Coastal Zone       Bureau of the Census. 1994a. County and city
              Management Act (1972), Clean Water Act (1972)               databook, 1994. Washington, DC: Government
              Marine Mammal Protection Act (1972) Marine                  Printing Office (GPO) for U.S. Department of Com-
              Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act (1972),            merce (USDOC). 928 pp.+ apps.
              Endangered Species Act (1973), Port and Tanker
              Safety Act (1974), Fishery Conservation and Manage-         Bureau of the Census. 1994b. Statistical abstract of the
              ment Act (1976), Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act          United States. Washington, DC: GPO for USDOC.
              Amendments (1978).                                          1,011 pp.
              5. "The term 'Point source' means any discernible,          Ch esapeake Bay Program Horne Page. 1997 (on-line).
              confined, and discrete conveyance, including, but not       The bay and ecosystem. URL:http:        wwwepa.gov.
              limited to, any pipe, ditch, channel, tunnel, conduit,      r3chespk/
              well, discrete fissure, container, rolling stock, concen-
              trated animal feeding operation, or vessel or other         Culliton, T.J., J.J. McDonough 111, D.G. Remer, and
              floating craft, from which pollutants are or may be         D.M. Lott. 1992. Building along America's coasts: 20
              discharged. This term does not include agricultural         years of building permits, 1970-1989. Silver Spring,
              stormwater discharges and return flows from agri-           MD: NOAA, Strategic Environmental Assessments
              culture." Clean Water Act, Section 502(14)                  (SEA) Division. 25 pp. + apps,
              6. These figures are for all disasters and are only         National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
              direct costs. They do not include indirect losses, such     (NOAA). 1992. Coastal trends data base. Silver
              as lost business.                                           Spring, MD: NOAA, Strategic Environmental Assess-
              7. Hurricane Hugo in 1989, Hurricanes Andrew and            ments Division.
              Iniki in 1992, Hurricane Opal in 1995, and Hurricane        National Planning Association (NPA) Data Services,
              Fran in 1996.                                               Inc. 1995. Key indicators of county growth, 1970-
              8. Even so, about 21 percent of coastal lands are           2015. Washington, DC: NPA. Data base + apps.
              owned or managed directly by the federal govern-            Sustainable Communities Network. 1997 (on-line).
              ment.                                                       Smart Growth: Development that serves economy,
              9. The data are a raw compilation of federal program        community, and environment. URL: http://www.
              approval actions.                                           sustainable.org/SGN/sgn-index.htmI


              26









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