[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]




                                             [Sea-Level Rise

                                 A White Paper on the Measurements
                                     of Sea-Level Rise in New Jersey
                                                            and
                                               A Perspective on the
                                       Implications for Management










                                                         Prepared by


                                                  Dr. Norbert P. Psuty
                                                       Erica Spence
                                                      Daniel Collins


                                             New Jersey's Shoreline Future Project
                                            Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
                                         Rutgers - The State University of New Jersey



                                               Coastal Hazard Management Plan
                                              Office of Land and Water Planning
                                      New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
                                                        Summer, 1996






                   (4\







                                                SEA-LEVEL RiSE

                                             -----------


                                   A White Paper on the Measurements
                                       of Sea-.Level Rise in New Jersey
                                                              and
                                                A Perspective on the
                                         Implications for Management


                                 2.2

                                               ATLANTIC CITY, N.J.

                                              Average rise = 3.8 mm/yr
                                 2.1                 R2  0.900



                             E
                             _j  2.0-
                             LLl
                             >                                                      NEW
                             LLJ                                                   JERSEY



                                                                             Phila.         ......

                                 1.9'






                                                                                 . .. ..... ...

                                 1.8                          ........    rrT
                                    1900       1920        1940       1960        1980       2000
                                                                YEAR











                                                                             Coastal Hazard Management Plan
                                                          New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
                                                                       Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
                                                                   Rutgers the State University of New Jersey
                                                                                               Summer, 1996







                                                                                                              DRAFT


                                                         Sea-Level Rise


                          The issue of sea-level rise has become a driving force behind coastal management
                  strategies. The problem is not simply an increase of the water level against the land, but an
                  increase of exposure to storm effects and an increase in the inundation and penetration of
                  coastal storms acting upon higher water levels. Both international and national organizations
                  have studied the rates of sea level rise on a global basis. The amount of sea-level rise along the
                  New Jersey coast can be clearly identified through analysis of tide gage records. Its effects are
                  manifested in a variety of changes that have occurred through the decades. As sea-level
                  continues to rise, the coastal zone will be heavily impacted. This condition is further
                  complicated by intense urban development that has occurred along much of our coastline.
                  Therefore, it is incumbent that coastal decision-makers anticipate the effects of sea-level rise
                  on the coastal zone and incorporate mitigation strategies which enhance public safety and
                  reduce the exposure of the coastal zone from direct and indirect effects of sea-level rise.


                  Absolute and Relative Sea-Level Rise
                          Sea-level rise is composed of a combination of several factors. The most basic factor is
                  the increase in the amount of water in the ocean. The melting of mountain glaciers and snow
                  fields, along with a general expansion of the ocean as it warms, cause the ocean's surface to
                  become elevated. This change in the amount of water in the oceans is referred to as the
                  eustatic effect, or the absolute elevation of the water surface. A second factor of sea-level rise
                  is that the coastal zone is subsiding or slowly sinking. Referred to as the tectonic effect, this
                  is a characteristic of the older coastal margins of continents. Further, the new sediments which
                  comprise barrier islands undergo some compaction because of their thickness and weight. As
                  these sediments compact, it causes the overall lowering of the surface. The total change of
                  sea-level is caused by the combination of these three factors which produce a net displacement
                  of the water against the land. This is the referred to as relative sea-level rise. In discussing
                  relative sea-level rise, it doesn't matter whether the land is subsiding or whether the sea is
                  rising. Relative sea-level is the measure of how fast the land is becoming inundated. It is a
                  measure of how fast you are getting wet-.

                  .The Effects of Sea-Level Rise
                          The issue of sea-level rise is multifaceted because so many indirect effects are
                  associated with it. The problem is not simply the increasing water level of the ocean, but sea-
                  level rise is also related to the general displacement of the shoreline at all of the margins of the
                  barrier islands, and on all of the bayside communities, including those on the mainland.
                  Further, as sea-level rises, the effects of storm conditions are able to reach farther inland. The
                  smaller storms are able to reach levels and locations which were attained only by the rare event
                  in the past. As sea-level rises, the effects of a diminishing sediment supply are also magnified.
                  Whereas, the displacement of shoreline is perceived to be shoreline erosion, it is also a
                  combination of elevated water levels as well. Therefore, an effect of sea-level rise is to
                  contribute to the measurable displacement of the shoreline, and additional sand will be required


                                                                  I







                                                                                                           DRAFT


                   just to maintain a constant position. Other issues include the change 'in the extent of and
                   distribution of wetlands, habitats primarily in estuarine areas, the intrusion of saltwater into
                   upper portions of estuaries, the salinity intrusion into groundwater, increased frequency of the
                   inundation of evacuation routes, and effects on hazardous waste sites.

                   The Application of Sea-Level Rise Information
                          In the 1981 SPMP, the issue of sea-level rise was introduced as a variable that is
                   changing the condition of the coast. Some general information was known and there was a
                   record of water level changes that was observed in the tidal gages. However, there were few
                   studies on sea-level change in New Jersey. Further, most of the discussion that occurred was
                   theoretical and focused on the problems associated with future sea-level rise. A major advance
                   in the investigation of this phenomenon occurred when additional information about sea-level
                   rise became easily accessible. This influx of information has made it possible to describe long-
                   term records of sea level change, immediate past conditions of sea level, place the two in
                   perspective, and produce a more confident statement about the consideration of future rates.
                   Concern for sea-level rise and its effects has generated considerable activity on a worldwide
                   basis. Some of this interest is driven by a recognition that global climatic change is causing
                   many environmental responses. One of these is an elevation of the global sea level. Some of
                   the early prognostications called for extreme changes [greater than 10 feet (3 in)] within a very
                   short time scale (less than a decade). However, the newer forecasts for rates of sea-level rise
                   have been lowered and the concern has partially shifted towards analyzing approaches to
                   coastal management that incorporate the multiple aspects of sea-level rise.
                   There are two major sources of information on regional sea-level rise: 1). The United States
                   Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and 2). the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic
                   Change (IPCQ, created as ajoint effort of the United Nations Environmental Programme and
                   the World Meteorological Organization. Both sources have been attempting to address the
                   issue by compiling information and analyzing the current state of knowledge.


                   USEPA
                          Among the first offerings of the USEPA was a comprehensive portrayal of the
                   greenhouse effect on changes in sea level (Barth and Titus, 1984). This report included a
                   methodology to identify and to predict the factors which influence sea level. The report also
                   incorporated scenarios of coastal and estuarine changes produced by sea-level rise. The
                   general approach was to consider a range of scenarios (Figure 1). The scenarios ranged from a
                   low of 56.2 cm. (22.1 in) to a high of 345 cm (135.8 in) above the sea level of 1980 by the year
                   2 100. The mid-range figures spanned from a low of 144.4 cm (56.9 in) to a high of 216.6 cm
                   (85.3 in) above 1980 sea level by the year 2100. These calculations only pertain to the
                   eustatic rise of sea level; thus an adjustment to the figures should be made to incorporate local
                   subsidence and compaction. In New. Jersey, the total relative sea-level rise would increase by
                   about another 24 cm (9.44 in) above 1980 sea level by the year 2 100. This would now raise
                   the extremely high scenario to 369 cm (145.2 in)-above sea level of 1980 by 2100. The lowest
                   scenario would also be increased, reaching 80 cm (31.9 in) above the sea level of 1980 by the
                   year 2 100. Of especial importance was the conclusion which stated although there is regional


                                                                 2







                                                                                                            DRAFT


                   variation in the rates of sea-level rise, the evidence points to an existing eustatic rise of about
                   15 cm (5.9. in) for the past century and a higher rate for the next century (Barth and Titus,
                   1984).


                   US National Research Council
                          The Engineering and Technical System Commission of the National Research Council
                   (1987) made an inquiry into sea-level rise because of the estimates produced by the USEPA,
                   other NRC reports, and a number of international symposia. They found that sea-level rise
                   was occurring and that it would continue into the future. However, they cautioned that the
                   rates of future sea-level rise are uncertain although it is likely that the rate would increase over
                   its current value. They, therefore, adopted the position of describing three scenarios of sea-
                   level rise, 50 cm (low), 100 cm (middle), and 150 cm (high) by 2100. Local subsidence and
                   compaction would cause the land to sink and add to the rate of inundation. It was agreed that
                   sea-level rise was exacerbating shoreline erosion and that horizontal shore displacement was on
                   the order of 100 times the vertical rise of the sea.


                                                                                                            -150
                       350-                      Gldbaf &@a: Level';. Rise: Sce' nadas.@


                       300-                                                                                 -125

                                                                                               High
                       250-                                                                                 -100


                   Cr
                   LU  200-                                                                    Mid-range
                                                                                               high
                   LU                                                                                          75
                   2                                                                                                M
                   F-                                                                                               U)
                   Z   150-
                   LU
                                                                                               Mid-range
                                                                                               low             50

                       100-



                                                                                                            -25
                         50-                                                                   Low




                          0-                                                                                   0
                          1980            2000            2025            2050             2075            2100

                                                                  YEAR
                           Figure 1. Source: Barth, M.C., Titus, J.G., 1984. Green House Effect and Sea Level Rise, Van
                            Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York New York.
                           325 pages                                                             ow
                                                                 3







                                                                                                            DRAFF


                          Several other USEPA publications expanded on the sea-level rise theme by looking at
                   the sort of environmental change effects produced in specific settings, such as the beach at
                   Ocean City, Maryland (Titus, et al., 1985), salinities in Delaware Bay (Hull and Titus, 1986),
                   and coastal wetlands (Titus, 1988). Much of the wetlands scenario development was based
                   on the conditions presently occurring in coastal Louisiana where, because of the very large
                   accumulations of the Mississippi River delta, the relative rate of sea-level rise in some areas is
                   on the order 1.0 cm (.39 in) per year. Thus, the information about the effects of sea-level rise
                   is based on empirical evidence. The outcomes of these studies and their extensions into places
                   such as Delaware Bay and coastal New Jersey show that an increase in the rate of sea-level
                   rise causes shoreline displacement, wetland loss, and drowning of the barrier islands. In other
                   words, the effects of sea-level rise impact the entire barrier island and bay and wetlands
                   complex.

                   Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change
                          Another source of information was and is being generated through the
                   Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change. One of the thrusts of this panel was to
                   concentrate on the effects of global climate change on the coastal zone. Several workshops
                   were convened and information throughout the world was introduced to consider evidence
                   regarding climate change, rates of change, effects of the change, and management options to
                   deal with the present and future changes. As mentioned above, part of the investigation
                   looked at changes in sea level. There was a large variation in the data assembled, and it was
                   not possible to establish a single value of sea-level rise. Ranges of sea-level rise were
                   developed (Figure 2), incorporating the concept of a high rate of rise value (110 cm or 43.3 in),
                   a low value (31 cm or 12.2 in), and a best estimate (66 cm or 26 in) that applied to the period
                   from 1990 to 2 100 (Houghton, J.T. et al., 199 1). Similar to the approach used by the USEPA,
                   these values refer only to the absolute sea-level rise (eustatic). Also, similar to the products
                   from the USEPA, the panel found evidence for a continuing elevation of sea level at present.
                   At the moment, the IPCC is conducting research on the present rate of sea-level rise and its
                   future rate. Thus far, they have concluded the rate is greater this century than last and will
                   continue to increase in the next century. They are also sponsoring inquiry about the types of
                   changes that may be expected at the shoreline and in the coastal habitats related to sea-level
                   rise (Beukema, et al., 1990; Warrick, et al., 1993).














                                                                 4


                                Both the USEPA and the IPCC have modified their estimates of sea-level rise over the
                       past several years. In general, the estimates have decreased slightly, primarily as a result of.
                       newer simulation models that reduce the contributions of the melting of the icecaps on
                       Greenland and Antarctica to the world's ocean. Recently, the USEPA has released its latest
                       view on the likely sea-level rise scenario to the year 2100. The approach was to poll a panel
                       of experts on sea-level rise to consider the most probable rate on the basis of their responses.
                       Increased rates of sea-level rise were paired with probabilities.
                       The results of the recent USEPA exercise applied to Atlantic City proceeds through a series of
                       steps to produce a numerical value. The report concluded that the most probable outcome of
                       sea-level rise is a 2 5 cm (9.8 in) increase from 1990 to 2100 above the existing trend for any
                       area (Houghton, J.T. et al., 1991) (Table 1). Therefore, this number is added to the existing                          
                       rate of relative sea-level rise to determine the future position. Data from gages in our local area
                       provide the information on the existing rate (Table 2). The Atlantic City rate is 3 9 cm (15.3
                       in) per century. Thus, the most likely elevation of sea level in Atlantic City in 2100 would be
                       68 cm (25.6 in) higher than in 1990. Further, using the data in Table 1, there is a 10% change
                       that the current rate would be exceeded by 55 cm (21.6 in) by 2100, providing a total increase
                       of 97 cm (37 in) by the year 2100. Additionally, information from the table indicates there is
                       a 1% chance that the additional rise could reach 92 cm (36.2 in) in addition to the current




                                                                                 5
 






                                                                                                                                 DRAFT


                      trend, raising total 2 100 sea level to 134 cm (51.56 in) above the 1990 level. Once again the
                      information points to a continuation of sea-level rise and a higher rate in the next century.

                                All of the scientific-technical agencies that have studied the question of sea-level rise
                      have concluded that it is occurring and that it will increase in the future. The magnitude of the
                      absolute rise is accompanied by the effects of local subsidence and compaction. Calculations
                      of the impending inundation at Atlantic City created under the variety of scenarios from the
                      different agencies portray the basis of a very serious problem for the low-lying coastal zone
                      (Table 3). Even the smallest of these values would drive major changes to the system. And,
                      these changes are occurring now.


                                         NORMALIZED SEA LEVEL PROJECTIONS, COMPARED
                                                               WITH 1990 LEVELS (cm)

                                                               Sea Level Projection by Year


                                      Cumulative
                                      Probability          2025            2050             2075             2100

                                            10                 - I              - 1           0                1
                                            20                 1                3             6                10
                                            30                 3                6             10               16
                                            40                 4                8             14               20
                                            50                 5                10            17               25
                                            60                 6                13            21               30
                                            70                 8                15            24               36
                                            80                 9                18            29               44
                                            90                 12               23            37               55
                                            95                 14               27            43               66
                                          97.5                 17               31            50               78
                                            99                 19               38            57               92
                                         Mean                  5                11            18               27
                                         Table t. Source: Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums. (1991)
                                         Climate Chanize; The 1PCC Scientific Assess ent. Cambridge: University
                                         Press. pp. 362.


















                                                                                6








                                                                                                                                7DRAFT







                                       IUSTORIC RATE OF SEA-LEVEL RISE AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS
                                                                   IN THE UNITED STATES
                                                                         (mm/yr) (in/year)

                                                  Locations                       (mnVyr)             (in/yr)
                                                  New York, NY                       2.74               0.11
                                                  Sandy Hook, NJ                     4.06               0.16
                                                  Atlantic City, NJ                  3.85               0.15
                                                                                     3.11             0.122




                                         Table 2. Source: NOAA, 1987-1994. Yearly Mean Sea Levels and Monthly Tidal
                                         Summary Reports for: Atlantic City, NJ: Batte[y. NYE Lewes. DE: Philadelphia. PA.. and
                                         Sandy Hook, NJ. U.S. Dept of Commerce, National Ocean Service, Rockville, MD





                                                ELEVATION OF SEA LEVEL AT ATLANTIC CITY
                                                           UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS,
                                                           INCORPORATING SUBSIDENCE
                                                        (elevation in centimeters, relative to 1990)

                                                          Year 2000              Year 2025              Year 2050               Year2100
                      EPA (1984)*
                        Conservative                          4.9                    19.35                   36.4                  81.3

                        Mid-range, moderate                   6.9                    30.55                   62.9                  167.3
                      National Research
                      Council (1987)*
                        Low                                   7.1                    25.2                    43.1                  78.6
                        Middle                                11.2                   39.4                    67.6                  123.8
                      IPCC (1990)TC
                        Conservative                          4.5                    15.5                    32.0                  58.5
                        Moderate                              5.5                    20.5                    44.0                  93.5
                      EPA (1995)*
                        Best Estimate                         5.0                    18.7                    33.5                  68.1
                      Table 3. * Year of publication













                                                                                7







                                                                                                                                    8DRAFT


                       Sea-Level Rise Rates in New Jersey
                                A number of studies have looked at the rate of sea-level rise in New Jersey. They have
                       found sea level has been rising during the past several thousand years. Although these rates
                       have fluctuated, they have continued to rise. An analysis of radio-carbon dates of organic
                       materials accumulating in estuarine sediments has been reported by Psuty (1986) (Fig. 3).
                       This study shows a general increase in sea level on the average of about 2.1 mm (0.08 in) per
                       year until about 2500 years ago when the rise slowed to an average rate of about 0.8 nim (0.03
                       in) per year-The slower rate of rise was responsible for the last 2.0 m of inundation at the
                       coast. It was during this time that a general stability of the coastal forms and habitats began to
                       develop. However recent data from the               local area indicate that sea-level rise is now occurring
                       at a faster rate.
                                0-              LOCATION''..,..",...                    ........... MSL ........................... -0

                                5
                                                                                                                  -2
                             10            Other NT.@:     Daddario.:
                                                                                                                  -4
                             15-                                                                                         M
                       a)
                                                                                          "H
                             20-                                          KA                                      -6
                                                                                                                         3
                                                                                                                         CD
                       W     25-                                                                                         CD
                                                                   HIP"
                             30-
                                                                                                                  -10
                             35-

                             40                                                                                     12


                               8000 7000 6000                5000 4000 3000 2000 1000                            0
                                                               AGE (years BP)
                                Figure 3. Trend of Recent Geologic Sea Level. The point on the scatter diagram are radio-carbon ages on
                       materials taken from cores in New Jersey. The shaded line is the interpreted trend in elevation of sea level. The
                       horizontal bars on the points represent the standard deviation in the age determination. Note the rapid rate of rise until
                       2500 Years BP and the ensuing slower rate of rise. (Psuty, 1986)


                       Tide Gage Measurements
                                Water levels measured by tide gages are the most convincing indication of the relative
                       rise in sea level because they have produced long records of actual water level measurements.
                       Since 1856, the tide gage at the Battery in New York City has recorded water levels. Figures
                       4, 5, 6, and 7 graph the yearly mean sea level against time from four tide gage locations in and
                       near New Jersey. Specifically, these stations are: Battery, NY; Sandy Hook, NJ; Atlantic
                       City, NJ; and Lewes, DE (Fig. 8).




                                                                                  8







                                                                                                                               9DRAFT



                                                                             1.5                                                              1.5
                             0.4-       Lewes, De.                                          0-4 - The Battery, N.Y.
                             0.3-        3.00 mni/yr                       -1.0             0.3-           2.71 mni/yr                     -1.0
                             0.2          r2   0.689                              -n        0.2-           r2    0.933                            -n
                         U)                                                -0.5   m     CO                                                 -0.5   m
                         cc                                                       m     Cr.                                                       m
                         LU  0.1-                                                   1   LU  0.1 -                                                 -4
                         W                                                              Uj

                             0.0-                                            0.0            0.0-                                           -0.0


                             -0.1-                                                         -0.1
                             -0.2                                            -0.5          -0.2                                              -0.5
                                        p Q11P P t-111 10" R@              R@                      (b) (b1z' & P tP Rp RFI '(ZP
                                  46 .116 IIq NIOI 0 NI:N Nq 10                                  N16 NCd, 0 N(@ Noi

                                                   YEAR                                                            YEAR


                                  Figure 4. Yearly average sea levels                            Figure S. Yearly average sea levels
                                  for Lewes DIE.                                                 for. Battery N.Y.









                                                                             1.5                                                              1.5
                             0.4 - Atlantic City, N.J.                                      0.4- Sandy Hook, N.J.
                             0.3-          3.84 mm/yr                      -1.0             0.3-          3.83 nurt/yr                     -1.0
                                            r2    0.899                                                    r2    0.837
                             0.2                                                  -n        0.2-                                                  -n
                         U)                                                -0.5   M     (n                                                 -0.5   M
                         CC                                                       M     Cc:                                                       m
                         LL1 0.1-                                                 --1   Uj  0.1-
                         W                                                              LU
                             0.0-                                          -0.0         2   0.0-                                           -0.0



                                                                             -0.5                                                             0.5
                             -0.24                                                          0.24
                                                                                                   Rp
                                            Nq NI:b Nq Nq -Iq                                    NOj Nod Nq Nq Nq            Nq NIN
                                                   YEAR                                                              YEAR


                                  ,=igure 7. Yearly average sea levels                           Figure 6. Yearly average sea levels
                                  for Atlantic City N.J.                                         for Sandy Hook N.J..
                                                      9@
















                                                                                  9







                                                                                                                     IODRAFIF





                                                            ... ....... .......
                                                            ..........
                                                                                             The value that is plotted for each
                                                                                    year  is the yearly mean sea level at a site
                                                                        .7          relative  to its datum. Each station has a

                                                          ..........
                                                          .........                 somewhat different datum elevation, thus
                                                          -e
                                                          . . ... . ....
                                                                                                                       -level rise are
                                                                                    the absolute values of sea
                                                                                          ly different. However, the relative
                                                                     . .........    slight
                                                                                    values (the amount of increase per year, for

                          . . . . . .. . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . .
                                                                                    example) are the important concern and
                              .................
                                                                    Sand
                                                                        Y
                                                                                    they are available from these graphs. The
                                                               i-A  Hook
                                                                                    yearly mean sea level is an average of the 12
                                                                                    monthly mean sea levels of that particular
                               ...........          ................. - .... year. The monthly mean sea levels are an
                                                                                    average of the measurements taken during
                                                                                    that month.       These graphs indicate and
                                                                                    support an increase rate of sea-level rise.
                                                                                    The graphs also indicate that the yearly
                                                    . . . . . . . . . .
                                 ....... . ........

                              ..............
                                       ... .......
                                                                                    mean sea levels vary from year to year.
                                                          Atlantic City
                               *X
                                                                                    However, the fluctuations in yearly mean
                                           ..............
                          ....            ..........
                                          ...............
                                                                                    sea level are modest compared to the longer,
                                                                                    upward trend (rise) that          exists for each
                                                          0     25k
                                                                                    station (Figures 4, 5, 6, and 7). The average
                           ...........
                                                          0    1 5.5ml
                                                                                    rate of relative sea-level rise varies between
                             ..............
                         .. ..........
                          .... ..                                                   4.06 mm (0. 16 in) per year at Sandy Hook
                                                   IMCS/Rutgers Canography 1996
                               .......                                              to 3.11 mm (0.12 in) per year at Lewes,
                         Figure 8. Location of Tidal Gauge Stations.
                                                                                    Delaware (NOAA, 1994).               The differing
                     rates of rise. are a result of the combination of the variables which affect relative sea level,
                     especially subsidence and compaction.
                               In a report to the New Jersey Department of Transportation regarding sedimentation
                     in Great Egg Harbor, Psuty, et al. (1993) looked at sedimentation rates on the Rainbow Islands
                     in the bay. An analysis of Cesium          137 in the upper foot of peat and sediment accumulations on
                     the islands shows a rate of rise of the marsh surface of about 6 nun/year (0.24 in/year) fro the
                     past 30 years. This is higher than the averages for the tidal gauges during this century. The
                     study probably demonstrates a greater rate of compaction of sediments in the estuarine
                     embayments and indicates the wetland surface is being depressed at faster rates than the gapge
                     locations on the barrier islands.

                               Extending the information presented in publications by the USEPA on Delaware Bay
                     (Hull and Titus, 1986) and other areas (Beukema, et al., 1990), a report on the effects of a
                     rising sea-level on New Jersey's coastal and estuarine areas was presented to the Governor's
                     Science Advisory Panel (Psuty, 1991). This report proposed scenarios of environmental
                     change into the future which are the products of different levels of sea-level rise (50cm, 100cm
                     and 200cm). Topics included the amount of shoreline displacement, increased costs for shore



                                                                           10







                                                                                                   I I DRAFT


                   protection, flooding of evacuation routes, greater frequency and magnitude of storm damage,
                   salt water intrusion into ground water and wetland changes, The report stressed the changes
                   in sea level that have and are occurring, and concluded that the coastal system is undergoing
                   measurable. Psuty (1991) pointed out, although sea level may rise at a faster rate in the
                   future, changes in sea level are occurring now and they will continue to occur.
                           The rate of sea-level rise at present is higher than any time in the past 7500 years (Fig.
                   9). It is very likely that the combination of sea-level rise and the paucity of sediment available
                   in the system are causing adjustments in the coastal morphology and coastal habitats.
                   Whereas the barrier island and wetlands were in adjustment with the slow rise of sea level of
                   the past several thousand years, the faster rise is inducing disequilibrium conditions at the
                   coast and in the estuaries. In the past 50 years, the undeveloped Rainbow Islands in Great
                   Egg Harbor have lost about 5% of their area, one island has completely disappeared (Psuty, et
                   al., 1993). As the still higher rates of sea-level rise develop, they will drive continual new
                   adjustments and force new displacements in the coastal zone. However, it is the rate at which
                   these wetlands are being submerged and it is largely responsible for the loss of wetland area on
                   the Rainbow Islands.





                                  * RAPID RISE OF
                       >     0      SEA LEVEL
                                                                        SLOW RISE
                       _J
                       Ca  .1     * INLAND PENETRATION
                                                                                                RAPID RISE
                       Q)           OF ESTUARINE FLOODING
                       0   -2                                           SEDIMENTATION           ATTENUATION
                       0)         * NO HABITAT                          AND WETLAND
                       0)                                                                       OF WETLANDS
                                    EQUILIBRIUM                         EXPANSION
                             3
                       0
                                                                                                SEDIMENT
                           .4                                                                   REDISTRIBUTION
                                                                        TOWARD
                       cd  -5                                           ECOSYSTE               *TOWARD
                       75                                                          M
                                                                        EQUILIBRIUM             ECOSYSTEM
                           -6.                                                                  DISEQUILIBRIUM

                           .7
                       2                                          TRANSITION PERIODS


                           -5500       -4500       -3500       -2500      -1500       -500    0 5001000
                                                              YEARS


                   Figure 9. Coastal barrier islands and wetland development related to rate of sea-level rise.
                   System disequilibriurn is associated with high rates of rise (Psuty, 1992).







                                                                                                   12DRAFr



                   Application of Sea-Level Rise
                   Storm surge levels vary as a function of the storm's strength. However, there is another
                   variable that determines the comparable level to which any storm can raise the water elevation
                   and penetrate inland. That variable is the change in relative sea level through time. Sea level is
                   rising. Therefore, the base upon which storms have occurred is changing. Thus, recent storms
                   are now capable of reaching similar historical flood levels with lower surges. In addition, a rise
                   in sea level allows stronger, less frequent events to reach coastal areas that where once safe
                   from storm activity, exposing more areas to the erosional and flooding effects of a storm.
                           When comparing storms, it is possible to describe its surge level to a fixed datum, such
                   as NGVD (Figure 10), or to a changing datum, such as sea level at the time of the storm.
                   However, when comparing storms that are separated by several decades, some of the
                   differences will be a product of sea level rise. Forexample, although Hurricane Gloria and the
                   March 1962 storm were equal in water elevations reached [7.2 ft. (2.19m) above NGVD],
                   Gloria operated on a sea level 0.276 ft. (0.07m) higher than the 1.962 storm. Thus, because
                   the March 1962 storm operated on a lower water base than Hurricane Gloria, the 1962 storm
                   had a stronger storm surge than Hurricane Gloria in order to reach the same water levels.



                   Future Storm Levels"
                   Continuation ofPrevious Century's Rate

                            The impacts of sea-level rise through time are depicted in Figure I I Column A
                   contains the water level elevations of the major storms that have reached New Jersey. Eleven
                   storms are listed and portrayed according to their peak water levels above NGVD.                In
                   addition, the elevation of the water level is referenced to the FEMA frequency water levels.
                   For example, the January 1987 storm is shown as having a storm peak water level of 5.9 ft and
                   it is about a I in 5 year storm. This storm is labeled Number 2 and this storm and its number
                   are incorporated in each of the other columns in Figure I I -
                          The left column is a compilation of the major storms of the past 52 years, including
                   many of the post- 1980 storm. In each case, the storm water elevation is the level achieved at
                   the time of the storm relative to NGVD. This procedure does not identify the effects of sea-
                   level rise during the period of record, although it is incorporated in the storm surge value. By
                   way of example, the March 1962 storm had water levels equal to that of Hurricane Gloria in
                   1985, 7.2 ft. above NGVD. Yet, if those two storms were to occur in 1996, their compara6ve
                   raised water levels would be different today because of sea-levei rise. Their storm surges
                   would be adjusted and raised at the rate of the past sea-level rise rate, 3.84 mm/yr (0.012
                   ft/yr). Thus, a storm equivalent to the March 1962 storm occurring in 1996 would produce a
                   water level of 7.99 ft.(2.43m) above NGVD [compared to 7.2 ft.(2.2m) above 1962 NGVD]
                   with an occurrence


                    The predictions of future sea levels are discussed in Sea-Level Rise (Psuty, et.al., 1996), a Coastal
                   Hazard Management Plan White Paper accompanying this report.


                                                                12







                                                                                                                                                  13DRAFIF


                                                     Comparison of Historic NGVD/MLLW Tidal Storm Su@rge Levels
                                                                                       at Atlantic City
                        National Geodetic
                        Vertical DatumpGVD)                Mean Low Low Water (MLL@Y)
                              (1929)                    a
                                                        0
                                                9.5' -'    - I I -I' FEMA 100 Year Tidal Surge
                                                        o

                                                        o

                                                        o

                                                        o

                                                9,01-0
                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0
                                                8.5' -'    - 10.1'FEMA 50 Year Tidal Surge
                                                        0




                                                        0

                                                8.0' -'
                                                        o

                                                        o

                                                        o

                                                7.6'       9.2' Hurricane 1944
                                                        0

                                                7.4' -'    - 9.0' December 1992
                                                        0
                                                7.2' - '   - 8.8' March 1962, Hurricanes Belle, 1976 & Gloria, 1985, October 1991
                                                        o

                                                7.0' -0    - 8.6' November 1950
                                                        0

                                                6.8' -'    - 8.4' March 1984
                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0
                                                6.3'       7.9' FEMA 10 Year Tidal Surge (Margate Bridge Begins to Flood)

                                                        0

                                                6.0'       7.6' Hurricane Donna 1960
                                                5.9'       7.5' January 1987
                                                5.8' -     7.4' FEMA 5 year Surge, January, 1992
                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0
                                                5.3' - -   6.9' (Black & White Horse Pike Begins to Flood)
                                                        o


                                                5.01-0
                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0

                                                        0



                                                           .59' Minor Flooding (average 6 times peryear)
                                                0.59'-     2.23 NOS Mean Sea Level


                        0.0' NGVD      1.64' MLLW

                        Figure 10. A Comparison of Historic NGVD/MLLW Tidal Stonn Surge Levels at Atlanjic City. Source: State Hazard Mitigation Team
                        1993.




                                                                                           13







                                                                                                                                                 14DRAFT



                                                                                                                           D
                                                                                                                       NRC Low                          to
                                 3                                                                          C          Estimate
                                                                                                        EPA Best       Scenario
                                                                                                        Estimate      (.0225 flyr)
                                                                                              B
                                                                                                        Scenario                   FEMA 100 year
                                     .................................................................................................................. ........
                                                                                                                                      wa er
                                                                                                                               .. ....  t level
                                                                                          Historic      (.018 f/yr)             A
                                                                                                        .................
                                                                                              Flate
                                                                                         Scenario
                                                                                        (.012 ftyr)
                                                                                                            . . . . ..... ...                           9

                                                                                              ..........
                                                                                              .........



                                                                                          .. ..... ...
                                                                                                                                   FEIVIA 50 year
                                     .......................................................................................... .......... ......
                                                                                                                                     waterlevel

                               2.5-
                                                                             A

                                                                      Water Level
                                                                                                        . . ...... . .
                                                                                          ::-:::: ...       'A...                                   - 8
                           >
                                                                                         . . .. .......
                                                                      R:ached
                           Z
                                                                                          . ..... ........
                                                                       D  ring Event
                           LQ                                                                                                      FEIVIA 30 year
                                                                          . . ..........
                                     ................................                            . ............    ......            water level          >
                                                         Hurricane 1944
                                                                                              ..........


                                                        December 1992                                                                                     rZ
                                       October 199 1, Hurricane Gloria,   4@                            . ..... . .                                       0
                                       Hurricane Belle March 1962
                                                                                                        ............
                                                                                                                                   FEIVIA 20 year
                                     ...............................  ............................... ...... ... ....... ..........
                                                                                                                                     water, level
                                                                                                                                                        7
                                                        November 1950


                                                            March 1984
                                                                          ..............
                                 2-                                           .........



                                                                                              ....                                FEIVIA 10 year
                                                                                                   .........................................................
                                                                                                                                     water level


                                                                             ..........  ........ .
                                                                                              ...........
                                                 Hurricane Donna 1960       . .......                                                                   6
                                                          January 1987                                                            FEIVIA S year
                                     .............................................................. ...................................................................................
                                                                                                                                    water level




                                                          January 1996



                                                                                                                                                        5


                        Figure 11. Projection of Historic Storm Water Levels to the Year 2050 Utilizing Three Predicted Sea-Level
                        Rise Scenarios. Column A : actual level above NGVD. Column B: applying historic rate. Column C:
                        applying Environmenat Protection Agency Best Estimate Rate. Column D: applying National Research
                        Council Low Estimate Rate..
















                                                                                              14







                                                                                                       15DRAFT


                 occur in 1996, water elevations would reach 7.33 ft.(2.24m) above NGVD Fig. 11B
                 [compared to 7.2 ft.(2.2m) above NGVD in 1985]. In other words, if the 1962 storm were to
                 occur today, it would surpass the flood levels of Hurricane Gloria, its water levels would be
                 higher than the December 1992 storm, and its levels would even surpass the 1944 Hurricane.
                         Extending the effect of sea-level rise on future storms, Figure I I projects the
                 occurrence of past stormwater levels to their equivalents in the year 2050 and illustrates the
                 difference between storm surges of the olderverse   the more recent events. Applying the sea-
                 level rise. rate of 3.84 nun/yr. (0.012 ft/yr.) (Column B), an event similar to the December 1992
                 storm would produce a water level 8.13 ft. (2.48m) above NGVD in2O5O or a I in 33 year
                 storm. Similarly, if an event equivalent to Hurricane Gloria were to occur in 2050, expected
                 water levels would be 8.02 ft. (2.44m) above NGVD. Further, if an event similar to the
                 devastating 1962 storm were to occur in 2050, water levels could reach 8.31 ft. (2.53m) above
                 NGVD, a I in 45 year water level.
                         If these past storm events were projected into the future using the U. S. Environmental
                 Protection Agency's (EPA) "best estimate" sea-level rise rate of 0.0 18 ft./yr. to the year 2050
                 (Figure I I Column Q, the differences in water elevations reached can be further compared
                 (Titus, 1095). Predicted water levels were determined by using the past century's rate of 3.84
                 nun/yr. until the year 1990, and EPA's rate from 1991-2050. Thus, the March 1962
                 equivalent storm would reach a water level 8.62 ft. (2.63m) above NGVD, a I in 60 year water
                 level. An event similar to the December 1992 storm would reach 8.48 ft. (2.58m) above
                 NGVD in 2050, a I in 50 year occurrence interval. If an event equivalent to Hurricane Gloria
                 were to occur in 2050, the projected water level would be 8.34 ft. (2.53m) above NGVD.


                 National Research Council "Low Estimate " Rate
                         Estimated water elevations of similar events using the "low estimate" of accelerated
                 sea-level rise (0.0225 ft./yr.) to the year 2050 from the National Research Council's (NRC)
                 1987 Responding to Changes in Sea Level report are also depicted in Figure I I Column D.
                 Predicted water levels were calculated by incorporating the past century's rate of 3.84 nun/yr.
                 until the year 1990 and the NRC rate thereafter. Thus, if a storm event similar to Hurricane
                 Gloria were to occur in 2050, using the NRC sea-level rise rate, projected water levels would
                 be 8.61 ft. (2.62m) above NGVD. A similar storm to the December 1992 storm would be 8.75
                 ft. (2.66m) above NGVD with an equivalent occurrence interval of I in 65 years. Estimated
                 water levels of an equivalent March 1962 storm in 2050 would be 8.89 ft. (2.70m) above
                 NGVD, a recurrence interval of approximately 1 in 75 year storm. It should be noted the
                 projected rates of relative sea-level rise used here are among the lower rates reported -in
                 literature. Other projected sea-level rise rates would result in higher elevations of storm water
                 levels than illustrated in Figure 11.
                         One final comparison involves the 1994 Hurricane which produced a water level of 7.6
                 ft above NGVD when it occurred. This was the major storm and it retains that status
                 throughout the several comparisons. Adding the projected sea-level rise to the year 2050 in
                 the National Research Council "low estimate" scenarios produces an elevation of 9.53'
                 NGVD, or greater than the I in 100 year flood in present day terms. The different between



                                                                 15







                                                                                                          16DRAFr


                  the I in 30 year flood level of its occurrence and the I in 100 year level is simply the effects of
                  sea-level rise.

                  General Options for Management

                         Coastal storms will continue to occur and to inundate the New Jersey shoreline. These
                  storms often result in the loss of life, extensive damage to property, and coastal erosion (Plates
                  4, 5, and 6). As sea level continues to rise, the effects of storms will be felt farther inland and
                  across more of the coast. Efforts need to be taken to minimize potential losses from less
                  frequent severe storms, as well as frequent low magnitude storms. Several issues must be
                  considered prior to implementing any management strategies:
                  ï¿½ Identification of high hazard areas.
                  ï¿½ Identification, on a reach basis, of the level of protection from coastal storms desired.
                  ï¿½ Creation of goals and objectives to be achieved in the year 2050, taking into consideration
                     rising water levels.
                         As sea level continues to rise, most effects of coastal storms will be manifested initially
                  and to the greatest extent in coastal areas prone to the erosional and flooding effects of storms.
                  These high hazard areas need to be identified. Elevated storm water levels will cause damage
                  to inland areas currently at tittle risk from flooding. Thus, policy decisions need to be taken to
                  prevent further loss of life and damage to property in known highly exposed and vulnerable
                  coastal areas. Conversely, policy is needed to reduce the continuous community and state
                  investments to repair and reconstruct structures in these exposed areas. Additionally, there is
                  a need to introduce a measure of flexibility into the designation of land-use, building codes, and
                  densities. Zoning and boundary lines need to be adjusted on a timely basis to reflect changing
                  exposure and risk brought about by rising sea-level and coastal storms.
                         Coastal decision makers must determine, on a regional basis, the level of protection
                  desired to alleviate the effects of the probabilistic occurrence of storm waters to barrier islands
                  and bayside communities. Options to protect reaches against a I in 5 year storm water levels
                  differ from strategies to protect reaches from a I in 50 year storm. Although, protection from
                  a I in 5 year storm requires less immediate investment than a I in 50 year storm, providing
                  protection from a I in 5 year storm will require continuous post-disaster clean-up and repairs.
                  Conversely, to provide protection against a I in 50 year storm will prevent flooding from
                  frequent less severe storms; however, it may require expensive structural solutions such as
                  dikes and may not be economically feasible or realistic. However, some level of protection
                  against storms must be afforded. Thus, an intermediate approach such as providing protectiQn
                  from a I in 20 year storm may be the most feasible option. By providing protection from a I
                  in 20 year storm, communities will be protected from the effects of both moderately-severe
                  less frequent storms and well as frequent storms.
                         In those coastal areas with low density development, it is possible to consider options
                  that call for relocation of structures and shifting out of the low-lying or severely-eroded
                  portions of the coast that are being affected by sea-level rise. However, in the densely-
                  developed coastal locations, little space is available to relocate buildings and/or infrastructure.



                                                                  16







                                                                                                         17DRAFT


                  Therefore three strategies may be employed to reduce the public's exposure to the encroaching
                  sea:
                        ï¿½  Utilize seawalls, beach nourishment, dikes, and other constructed barriers to
                           prevent the rising water from penetrating inland and to defend the existing
                           shoreline.
                        ï¿½  Allow the shoreline to shift inland and accept the losses of property and
                           infrastructure at the water's edge.
                        ï¿½  Take intermediate action to delay the effects of a sea-level rise while testing other
                           approaches to the problem, this may involve short-term structures or
                           nourishment with dune creation, in conjunction with phased changes in land-use
                           in the most exposed areas; incorporate a rising sea level in all development plans
                           and coastal policies.

                          The IPCC looked at options that could be applied to coastal management in the face of
                  sea-level rise. No new revelations were put forward. The options were to build dikes (similar
                  to the Dutch approach), allow the natural system to ftmction and move back from the rising
                  water (most of the developing world), or perform some@ short-term holding action while a
                  longer-term solution is sought (delaying the hard choices).

                          The Engineering and Technical System Commission of the National Research Council's
                  report on sea-level rise (1987) suggested that only two management options were available: 1)
                  to stabilize the coast or 2) to retreat. However, no single option was preferred because of the
                  wide range of variation in sea-level rise curves and the need to gather site-specific data in
                  working on a structural solution. They indicated that a structural solution was always
                  possible but it might be too expensive to apply. The report concluded that the evidence for an
                  accelerated sea-level rise into the next century was well established and that. it and its effects
                  should be incorporated into sound planning and design.


                  Considerations and Challenges for New Jersey
                          Whereas the structural or retreat approaches noted above represent the extreme
                  positions and will each be selectively applied, the intermediate approach may be the most
                  universal and generate the most acceptance. However, even the intermediate approach will
                  require, the development of state policy to seriously treat the broad ramifications of the effects
                                                                                                                   @7-
                  of sea-level rise.
                        ï¿½  Initially, the investment and/or reinvestment of public ftinds in the coastal zone
                           in post-storm. situations should require adaptation to rising sea levels.
                        ï¿½  Funding incentives and disincentives should relate to state policy to defend the
                           shoreline or to move out of designated high hazard areas.
                        ï¿½  Public policy must be created to determine the goals for the State in keeping with
                           a higher sea level and a modified coastal zone. What are the objectives to be
                           achieved in 50 years as sea levei rises and inundation and displacement occur?


                                                                  17







                                                                                                             18DRAFT


                        ï¿½   Risk reduction and mitigation of the effects of sea-level rise relative to public
                            safety and exposure to hazards must become part of public policy that manages
                            the shore.
                        ï¿½   There'must be a recognition that the coastal system is highly dynamic and any
                            means to interact with a changing system must be dynamic also. This especially
                            applies to construction lines and land-use boundaries on maps and planning
                            documents. The lines and zones must be revisited and revised periodically,
                            particularly after major storm events.
                        ï¿½   There must be the opportunity to change land use and distribution of facilities.
                            There must be options to recreating the same land uses and structures, or the
                            same densities as that which were damaged or destroyed previously.
                        ï¿½   Strategies must be developed that lead to the achievement of the goals for coastal
                            land use and hazard reduction.


                           The central issue raised in the discussion of sea-level rise and its increasing exposure of
                  the people and infrastructure in the coastal zone is one of public safety and public protection.
                  Retention of necessary waterfront development is also important. Whereas dikes will suffice
                  in keeping the sea out, they can be an extremely expensive proposition. Other solutions are
                  short-term and do not address the problem, merely delay facing the decision to make large
                  public investments or to begin withdrawal from the most hazardous areas. Each of the choices
                  is expensive. Each will require continuous investment as the coastal system changes. Any
                  approach to addressing the effects of sea-level rise will require an allocation and expenditure of
                  public funds. It is, therefore, paramount that these expenditures are led by a State policy that
                  recognizes the need to respond to a changing situation and to have longer-term objectives that
                  defme what the shore is to look like in the coming decades. If changes are required, it is
                  necessary to identify them and create the procedures by which they are incorporated in the
                  planning process.

                          Nearly all of the management options discussed have focused on the effects of sea-
                  level rise at the ocean shoreline. Accordingly, much of the discussion has also focused on
                  approaches to defending the ocean shoreline. However, the effects of sea-level rise will be
                  manifested on the shorelines of bays and estuaries in the coastal zone and they will likely be
                  without the protective buffer of a beach and dunes. These locations are usually very low-
                  lying initially and are very exposed to the effects of flooding. Much of the local infrastructure
                  is near sea leve.1 at this time and will have increasing episodes of flooding as sea-level continue's
                  to rise. Therefore, the bay margins will need to be the first locations for the application of
                  state policy development recognizing the effects of sea-level rise due to the high risks
                  associated with sea-level rise.


                  Conclusion
                          Relative sea level in New Jersey has risen about 39 cm in the past century and will
                  increase in the next century. The issue of sea level rise is a multifaceted phenomenon



                                                                    18







                                                                                                          19DRAFF


                  involving global and regional efforts. Yet these efforts have not established a single value of
                  sea-level rise. Regardless of the rate that is considered, water levels are rising and the coastal
                  zone is becoming inundated. The population and the development at the shore are at risk.
                  The beaches have shifted and barrier islands have become narrower due to the displacement of
                  the water-land contact. Low-lying bay shorelines are especially vulnerable as sea level rises.
                  These risks will continue to increase in association with an increasing rate of rise. Thus, it is
                  vital that coastal decision-makers anticipate the effects of sea-level rise on the coastal zone and
                  develop policies that will enhance public safety and reduce the exposure of the coastal zone
                  from direct and indirect effects of sea-level rise.


                          Although beach replenishment or construction of seawalls confront a portion of the
                  problems associated with sea-level rise, neither can eliminate flooding or the high risk of
                  damage from storms operating on elevated water levels. Policies are needed to direct the
                  investment of public funds into projects that will enhance areas of adequate elevation to
                  accommodate sea-level rise for some time period. Conversely, a policy is needed to reduce
                  public expenditure for locations in high hazard areas that will require continuous repairs to
                  both development and infrastructure. Further, there is a need to introduce a measure of
                  flexibility into the designation of land use, building lines, and densities. Zones and boundary
                  lines must be adjusted on some timely basis to reflect the changing exposure and risk brought
                  about by a rising sea level.





























                                                                  19







                                                                                                   20DRAFT


                 Bibliography
                 Barth, M. C. and J. G. Titus (eds.), 1984. Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise. Van
                      Nostrand Reinhold Co., New York, N.Y., 325 pp.
                 Beukema, J. J., W. J. Wolff, and J. J. M. N. Browns (eds.), 1990. Expected Effects of
                      Climatic Change on Marine Coastal Ecosystems. Kluwer Academic Publishers,
                      Amsterdam, 221 pp.
                 Engineering and Technical Systems Commission, National Research Council, 1987.
                      Responding to Changes in Sea Level. National Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 148
                      PP.
                 Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds). (1991) Climate Change: The IPCC
                      Scientific Assessment Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 362 pp.
                 Hull, C. H. J. and J. G. Titus (eds.), 1986. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Salinity in
                      the Delaware Estuary. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., 88
                      pp-
                 Lyles, D., L. E. Hickman, and H. A. Debaugh, Jr., 1988. Sea Level Variations for the United
                      States. U.S. Depart of Commerce, Office of Oceanography and Marine Assessment,
                      Washington, D. C., 182 pp.
                 NOAA, 1987-1994. Yearly Mean Sea Levels and Monthly Tidal Summary Reports for:
                      Atlantic City, NJ; Battery, NY; Lewes, DE; Philadelphia, PA; and Sandy Hook, NJ.
                      U.S. Dept of Commerce, National Ocean Service, Rockville, MD.
                 Psuty, N. P., 1986. Holocene Sea-Level in New Jersey. Physical Geography, 7: 154-167.
                 Psuty, N. P. (Panel Chair), 199 1. The Effects of an Accelerated Rise in Sea Level on the
                      Coastal Zone of New Jersey, U.S.A. Rutgers University, Institute of Marine and Coastal
                      Sciences, New Brunswick, Contribution 91-55, 51 pp.
                 Psuty, N.P., (1992) Estuaries: Challenges for Coastal Management. In: P. Fabbri, ed., Ocean
                      Management in Global Change. Elsevier Applied Science, New York, NY, pp. 502-520.
                 Psuty, N. P. , Q. Guo, and N. Suk, 1993. Sediments and Sedimentation in the Proposed
                      ICWW Channels, Great Egg Harbor B4X, NJ. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University.,
                      107 pp.
                 Titus, J. G. (Ed.), 1988. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands. U.S.
                      Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., 152 pp.
                 Titus, J. G., S. P. Leatherman, C. H. Everts, D. L. Kreibel, and R. G. Dean, 1985. Potential
                      Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Beach at Ocean City Maryland. U.S. Environmental
                      Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., 176 pp.
                 Titus, J. G. and V. K. Narayanan, 1995. The Probability of Sea Level Rise. U.S.
                      Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., 186 pp.
                 Warrick, R. A., E. M. Barrow, and T. M. L. Wigely (eds.), 1993. Climate and Sea Level
                      Change: Observations, Projections and Implications. Cambridge University Press,
                      Cambridge, UK, 424 pp.







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