South central Alaska floods September 19

[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]

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FLOOD REPORT
South Central Alaska Floods

September 19 - October 2,1995

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Foreword

The Alaska Region of the National Weather Service has broad
Federal responsibility to provide public forecasts and warnings
of weather and river conditions in Alaska. These services are
for the protection of life and property and in support of
Alaska's commerce.

The Alaska Region conducts surveys of significant natural
disasters in Alaska to thoroughly assess the performance of its
warning system in all aspects, from data collection and
assimilation through creation and dissemination of products and,
ultimately, effective customer response. This report of the
flood survey team's findings regarding the damaging floods of
south central Alaska in September and October 1995 identifies
opportunities to improve the NWS's weather and flood warning
system, not only in the affected area but throughout the Nation.

I express the special gratitude of the Alaska Region to the
Federal, state, and local officials and media representatives in
Alaska who helped the surve team,

Richard Hutcheon
Regional Director
Alaska Region
National Weather Service

Property of CSC Library

Foreword
Le,4 US Department of Commerce
NOAA Coastal Services Center Library
2234 South Hobson Avenue
C.0
Charleston, SC 29405-2413

Flood Survey Team

The Alaska Region Director formed a flood survey team immediately
after the last south central Alaska flood warning was canceled on
October 2, 1995. The team spent the next several months
gathering information and data from within the National Weather
Service and meeting with the customers of the National Weather
Service. One of the primary customers during the flood event was
the emergency management organization consisting of the Alaska
Division of Emergency Services and the Emergency Services in the
Kenai and Matanuska-Susitna Boroughs. These meetings also gave
the team the opportunity to interview representatives of the
public and the media.

The team also visited several flood impacted locations which
visually confirmed impacts of the flood and allowed the team to
interview residents.

Everyone with whom the team met stressed the importance of timely
and fresh forecast and warning information in their life and
work.

The flood survey team was composed of:

James E. Kemper, Chief, Environmental and Scientific Services
Division of the Alaska Region,

Larry A. Rundquist, Development and Operations Hydrologist at the
Alaska River Forecast Center,

David B. Goldstein, Warning and Coordination Meteorologist at the
Anchorage Weather Service Forecast Office,

Gregory E. Matzen, Public and Warning Program Manager at the
Alaska Region,

Jeff E. Perry, Service Hydrologist at the Anchorage Weather
Service Forecast Office,

J. Neal Marchbanks, Radar Program Manager for the Alaska Region.

The team acknowledges Pat Claar, secretary of the Environmental
and Scientific Services Division, for ably providing essential
clerical and staff assistance to the team.

pe
4es Kem
Leader

Survey Team

Executive Summary

Persistent, southerly, warm, moist flow over south central Alaska
from mid- to late-September 1995 produced heavy rain of up to 21
inches in a 4 day stretch. The rain was orographically focused
along the Chugach-Kenai mountains, the Alaska Range, and the
mountains around Valdez and Cordova.

Extensive flooding occurred in south central Alaska from
September 19 to October 2 in response to the rain and flow
pattern. No loss of life or serious injury were directly
attributable to the flooding, but property damage totals
approached 10 million dollars. The flooded areas were declared a
federal disaster area.

A National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region flood response
assessment team conducted a disaster survey immediately after the
flooding subsided. The survey included visits to the Kenai,
Matanuska-Susitna, Girdwood, and Knik locations impacted by the
flooding.

A summary of the major findings of the survey are:

(1) The Anchorage Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) provided
forecasts of heavy precipitation 5 days in advance of the onset
of the flooding. Forecasts of general precipitation amounts were
also provided during the flooding period. The development of
quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) will provide better
support to flood forecasting.

(2) The Alaska River Forecast Center (RFC) issued timely,
extensive, and informative flood statements, watches, and
warnings. Lead times for flood warnings were as much as 17 hours
at specific locations.

(3) The new WSR-88D doppler radar, a technology part of the NWS
modernization, installed near Kenai indicated the dramatic
orgraphic focusing of the heavy precipitation. High resolution
precipitation patterns were available for the first time to the
Anchorage forecasters and hydrologists. The Storm Total
Precipitation product illustrated the significant impact the
radar will have on forecast and warning operations during heavy
precipitation events. Operational radar and precipitation gauge
network improvements to compensate for orographic beam blocking,
freezing level contamination, and precipitation amount biases in
Alaska are recommended.

Executive Summary - 1

(4) Some residents in the affected areas did not receive the NWS
flood product infox7nation because of slow or inadequate
dissemination processes. Those that did receive the infoxnation
did not always recognize the threat because of a lack of
historical infox7nation upon which to base a response. improved
outreach and preparedness programs can improve the response.

(5) There was frequent interaction during the flooding between
the NWS forecast and warning operations and the state emergency
service agencies. However, the infox7nation flow and pathways
between these two vital hazard response organizations needs
modernizing to take advantage of advances in communications
technologies. There also needs to be a better mutual
understanding of the operating procedures in both the NWS and the
emergency service agencies. Frequent contact is necessaxy to
improve the operating relationships between the two hazard
response groups.

Several new positions associated with the NWS modernization have
recently been put in place at the Anchorage WSFO and RFC. These
new positions should respond significantly to the recommendations
from this report.

The Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) position at the
Anchorage WSFO was filled in 1994. This is a new NWS
modernization position at each WSFO. The responsibilities of the
WCM include developing and maintaining the flood warning and
preparedness program. The WCM position is recognized in the NWS
as vital to a vigorous and healthy warning/preparedness program.

The Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) is another NWS
modernization position recently filled at the RFC. The DOH teams
with the WCM in the area of flood warning and preparedness.

A Service Hydrologist was added to the staff at the Anchorage
WSFO in 1994. The Service Hydrologist is responsible for
developing and maintaining hydrologic operations at the WSFO by
(1) training WSFO forecasters in hydrologic operations, (2)
developing and maintaining a hydrologic observing network and the
flow of data from the network into the WSFO, and (3) developing
and maintaining the WSFO hydrologic service program. The Service
Hydrologist had completed most of the training required for the
position at the time of the flood and was just starting to have
an impact on the WSFO hydrologic operations.

The new Science and operations Officer (SOO) at the WSFO was
filled in 1994. The SOO is responsible for training and

Executive Summary - 2

integrating new meteorological and hydrologic scientific
developments into operations. The SOO can provide a major
contribution toward developing a successful QPF program and
training forecasters in the hydrologic program.

The findings and recommendations in this flood report will serve
as a target of significant opportunity and focus for the WCMs,
the Service Hydrologists, the DOH, and the SOOs in the Alaska
Region. They can also greatly assist in improving the linkages
with the emergency services agencies.

There has already been a response to some of the recommendations
because of the assessment team's visits to the Alaska Division of
Emergency Services and the Kenai/Matanuska-Susitna Borough
emergency service groups. The groups submitted flood mitigation
plans for funding to the Federal Emergency Management
Administration. These plans have included some of the team's
recommendations, such as funding the purchase and installation of
NOAA Weather Radio transmitters, precipitation gauges, and river
gauges.

Executive Summary - 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

Acronymns and Abbreviations

Chapter I Findings and Recommendations

Chapter II Description and Impact of Floods

Chapter III Meteorological Summary

Chapter IV Hydrological Summary

Chapter V WSR-88D Radar Performance

Chapter VI Flood Preparedness

Chapter VII Warning Services

Chapter VIII Dissemination

Appendix I Flood Event Chronology and Products

Appendix II Tables/Figures

Appendix III Damage Reports

Appendix IV Alaska Division of Emergency Services Event Log

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADES Alaska Division of Emergency Services
AKRFC Alaska River Forecast Center
AMOS Automatic Meteorological Observing System
AP Associated Press
APS Alaska Products Service
ARR Alaska Railroad
ARONET Alaska Region Operations Network
ASOS Automatic Surface Observing System
ATWC Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
AVN Aviation Numerical Weather Prediction Model
AWIPS Advanced Weather Information Processing System
AWL Alaska Weather Line (800 toll free)
AWOS Automatic Weather Observing System
BLM Bureau of Land Management
CFS Cubic Feet Per Second
CY Cubic Yard
DOH Development and Operations Hydrologist
DOT Department of Transportation
EAS Emergency Alerting System
EBS Emergency Broadcast System
ECS Electronic Communications System
EOC Emergency Operations Center
ESIS Emergency Services Information System
ESSD Environmental and Scientific Services Division
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Administration
GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
GOES Geostationary Observational Environmental
Satellite
HAS Hydrometeorology Analysis and Support
HSA Hydrologic Services Area
HMD Hydrometeorological Discussion
hPa Hecta Pascal
ICS Incident Command System
KPB Kenai Peninsula Borough
LEPC Local Emergency Planning Committee
M&O Maintenance and Operations
MIC Meteorologist-in-Charge
Mat-Su Matanuska-Susitna
MSL Mean sea level
NAWAS National Warning System
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NGM Nested Grid Numerical Weather Prediction Model
NM Nautical Mile
NMC National Meteorological Center
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWR NOAA Weather Radio
NWS National Weather Service

NWWS NOAA Weather Wire Service
PTA Parent Teacher Association
QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
RAMOS Remote Automated Meteorological Observing
System
RATNET Rural Area Television Network
RFC River Forecast Center
SAWRS Supplemental Aviation Weather Reporting Station
Soo Science and Operations Officer
USCG United States Coast Guard
USGS United States Geological Survey
UPS Uninterruptable Power Supply
UTC Universal Coordinated Time
WCM Warning Coordination Meteorologist
WSO Weather Service Office
WSFO Weather Service Forecast office
WSR-88D Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler

CHAPTER I

Findings and Recommendations

I.1 Introduction

A NWS Alaska Region flood response assessment team was formed
shortly after the September 20-October 2 1995 flooding period.
The assessment included visits to the Kenai, Matanuska-Susitna,
Girdwood, and Knik locations impacted by the flooding. The team
met with emergency services groups, including the Alaska Division
of Emergency Services (ADES), the Kenai Peninsula Borough
Emergency Services, the Girdwood Emergency Operations Center
(EOC), and the Matanuska-Susitna (Mat-Su) Borough Emergency
Services.

The team reviewed the flood response activities of the NWS and
the interaction between the emergency services groups and the
NWS. They especially reviewed the dissemination of NWS products
to the ADES, to the emergency services in the Boroughs and EOCs,
and to residents in south central Alaska. The team also
discussed the flow of flood reports and information back to the
NWS.

The following Findings and associated Recommendations are the
result of the assessment. There has already been a response to
some of the recommendations because of the assessment team's
visits to the ADES and the Kenai/Mat-Su Borough emergency service
groups. The groups submitted flood mitigation plans for funding
to the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA). These
plans have included some of the recommendations given below, such
as funding the purchase and installation of NOAA Weather Radio
(NWR) transmitters, precipitation gauges, and river gauges.

In general, any activities in response to the recommendations are
noted within the recommendations below.

1.2 Findings and Recommendations

The Findings and Recommendations are identified by Chapter number
in Roman numerals and a sequential number beginning with I for
the first finding in a Chapter. When there is more than one
recommendation for a finding, an addition sequential number is
appended to the first sequential number in the recommendation.

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter I-1

Finding IV.1

Additional river stage and precipitation gauge data in Alaska,
especially in the area impacted by this flood event, would
improve river level forecasts.

Recommendation IV.1.1

General locations where precipitation gauges are required: (1)
the Kenai Mountains south of the Kenai River, (2) the western
Susitna River basin, and (3) along the Richardson Highway between
Valdez and the Alaska Range.

Specific locations for automated precipitation gauges on the
Kenai Peninsula in the vicinity of rivers are recommended:

(1) Near the Cooper Lake project where two non-automated
precipitation gauges already exist, one of which needs
telemetry,
(2) Near the prison in Seward,
(3) Near Bradley Lake, and
(4) With the existing Cooper Landing river gauge where
telemetry already exists,

Note (1): The purchase and installation of automated
precipitation gauges at these 4 locations has been
included in the Kenai Borough's Flood mitigation Plan
submitted to the FEMA for funding.

In the western Susitna basin:

(1) At Rainy Pass Lodge,
(2) At Hayes River Lodge,
(3) At Judd and/or Hiline Lakes,
(4) At Midway Lakes,
(5) At Chelatna Lake Lodge, and
(6) Near Peters Creek on Petersville Road,

Along the Richardson Highway:

(1) At Thompson Pass, and
(2) Near Lake Louise, Susitna Lake, or Tyone Lake.

Recommendation iv.1.2

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-2

Automated stream gauges, coordinated with the USGS, are
recommended at the following sites:

(1) Kenai River below Skilak Lake,
(2) Kenai River at Kenai Keys (rating development),
(3) Kenai River at Soldotna (automate existing site),
(4) Grouse Creek at canyon mouth,
(5) Spruce Creek (automate existing site),
(6) Lowell Creek below tunnel, and
(7) Snow River at highway bridge (rating development).

Note (2): The purchase and installation of automated
stream gauges at these 7 locations has been included in
the Kenai Borough's Flood Mitigation Plan submitted to
the FEMA for funding.

Finding IV.2

Precipitation and other meteorological data from several key
locations are not available in real-time. Valuable data from
cooperative observers are recorded daily, but not available to
forecast operations until after the end of the month through the
mail.

Recommendation IV.2

The cooperative observations should be brought into the real-time
operations as much as possible. This calls for a simple data
entry and electronic information pathway for cooperative
observations into NWS operations. Automated processing (decoding
and database posting) of the cooperative observations is required
once they are collected to provide forecast operations with
efficient access to the data.

Finding V.1

The precipitation generating the flood event was highly
influenced by the orography in south central Alaska. The
existing precipitation gauge network did not accurately reflect
the location and amount of precipitation. The WSR-88D radar at
Kenai was an extremely powerful alternative to precipitation
gauges for estimating quantitative precipitation amounts and
location. The heaviest amounts in the radar data were over the
Chugach/Kenai mountains and the eastern slopes of the Alaska
Range.

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-3

Precipitation gauges are necessary to calibrate the WSR-88D radar
precipitation estimates, especially for significant precipitation
amounts over the mountains, as in this flood event. The location
of any new precipitation gauges must take into account the
surrounding orography and beam elevation characteristics.

Recommendation V.1

New automated precipitation gauges should be located to optimally
support the WSR-88D estimation of precipitation location and
amount. Several specific locations have been identified for the
Kenai radar:

(1) The eastern intersection of the Skilak Lake road and
the Sterling Highway. This is in a gap area just
inside the western slopes of the mountains where little
if any beam blockage occurs.

(2) North of Seward: one near Woodrow, and one near Exit
Glacier. These are in an area where only partial beam
blockage occurs.

(3) On the proposed Skilak Lake Outlet USGS river gauge
platform. This would be in an area before the
mountains and with no beam blockage.

Note (3): The purchase and installation of automated
precipitation gauges selected locations has been included
in the Kenai Borough's Flood mitigation Plan submitted to
the FEMA for funding.

Finding VI.1

Residents along many of the flooded streams were unaware of the
impacts of floods. This was based in part on no known history of
previous flooding on these streams.

Recommendation VI.1

The WSFO WCMs and the RFC should use this event to develop
preparedness material to distribute to emergency managers and the
media in similar communities to try to overcome the lack of
awareness of flood potential and to promote better community
preparedness. Also, lessons learned from this event should be
used in educational material for schools and community outreach
programs.

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-4

Finding VI.2

Routine "customer service" visits to emergency management
officials by the RFC staff and the WSFO WCMs are important to
maintain operations relationships. Visits are also particularly
important for areas with limited emergency management programs or
for locations without local flood warning plans in known flood-
prone areas. Examples are Girdwood or at the Knik River Fire
Station.

Recommendation VI.2

Routine coordination and preparedness visits by WCMs and RFC
staff should be made to key emergency management agencies. For
Anchorage, these include the Kenai Peninsula, the Mat-Su Borough,
and the Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPC). Attendance
is also recommended at the meetings organized by the Alaskan
Association of Emergency Managers.

Finding VI.3

The RFC and the WSFOs can improve warning services by
participating in ADES/NWS jointly organized emergency event
exercises.

Recommendation VI.3

The WSFO WCMs and the RFC should work with the ADES to design and
participate in emergency response drills applicable to NWS
services.

Finding VI.4

The emergency management staff's knowledge of hazardous
weather/water events can be improved so they understand the NWS'
technological and response capabilities. The NWS needs to also
understand the emergency services capabilities and priorities in
responding to these events.

Recommendation VIA

The Alaska Region (Environmental Scientific and Services
Division, WSFOs, RFC) should work with the ADES to develop such
an educational program involving the Regional staff, the WCMs,

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-5

and the staff of the RFC with the ADES/Borough emergency
management staff.

Finding VI.6

Flood response groups like the NWS and the emergency services
agencies need to share their post-event reflections.

Recommendation VI.6

The assessment team should meet with the ADES, Borough emergency
service agencies, and the LEPCs to jointly discuss our Findings
and Recommendations. Joint activities to implement the emergency
services related recommendations should be explored.

Note (4): The assessment team has met with the above
groups to discuss the NWS response and the interactions
between the NWS and the groups during the flood. A
number of cooperative activities are taking place in
response to the joint assessments.

Finding VII.1

The Anchorage WSFO/RFC operations staff had just moved into their
new facility in mid-September. They were not completely adjusted
to their new surroundings and office support systems.

Recommendation VII.1

The support systems and the WSFO/RFC staff familiarization with
the systems in the new WSFO/RFC facility should be arranged to
provide for efficient operations. This has been accomplished.

Finding VII.2

The multi-year transfer of operational applications and database
from the Prime computers to the Unix workstations was not yet
completed. Operations access to observations required manual
processing some of the time.

Recommendation VII.2.1

The conversion from Prime computers to Unix workstations should

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-6

be completed as quickly as possible. As of March 1996, the NWS
operations in Alaska successfully operate without the Prime
computer.

Recommendation VII.2.2

An improved data quality control operation should be developed to
support forecast and warning operations. The objective of the
operation is to ensure that all observations are checked for
proper decoding and processing. This should be the
responsibility of the WSFO hydrometeorological technician staff
which is consistent with the modernization of NWS operations.

Finding VII.3

Spotters provide valuable observations for hazardous
weather/water events to supplement existing observations systems.
The new WCM at the Anchorage WSFO can begin to expand and enhance
the spotter network.

Recommendation VII.3

The new WCM at the Anchorage WSFO should begin to expand and
enhance the spotter network. The WCMs at the other Alaska WSFO
should also establish more effective spotter networks.

The WCMs should emphasize to the emergency management and law
enforcement organizations the importance of having them relay
significant weather and water reports to the NWS.

Finding VIIA

Very little of the real-time flood and heavy rain reports
reaching the ADES were relayed to the WSFO/RFC operations.

Recommendation VII.4

An electronic pathway for reports to reach the emergency service
offices should be developed to get the reports to NWS operations.
This is addressed in Recommendation VIII.1.

One of the plans in the NWS modernization is also to provide a I-
800 telephone service dedicated to telephone communications
between emergency operations centers, the forecast offices, and
the RFC. This should be implemented in Alaska as soon as
possible.

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-7

Finding VII.5

Telephones in the new forecast office were inoperable for a
critical period of about 2-3 hours on the morning of September
21.

Recommendation VII.5

Cellular telephones should be provided to the forecast offices
and.the RFC for back-up telephone service when normal telephone
service is disrupted. The cellular phone numbers should be
provided to the emergency services and law enforcement agencies.
There should be a procedure in place at the WSFO for ensuring the
telephone company is alerted, preferably automatically, when
there is a telephone system failure.

Findincr VII.6

Operational coordination and communication between the WSFO and
the RFC can be strengthened through a routine daily coordination
process.

Recommendation VII.6

An effective daily coordination process should designed and
implemented among the Center Weather Service Unit, the RFC, the
Alaska Aviation Weather Unit, and the 3 Forecast Offices. This
has been implemented in January 1996.

The "daily" aspect of the coordination should develop routine
operational interaction between the WSFOs and the RFC. During
events, such as the south central flood, coordination should be
more frequent between the impacted WSFO and the RFC. The
coordination process should also include precipitation forecasts
to support RFC and WSFO hydrologic operations.

Findincr VII.7

There was an extraordinary number of telephone calls into the
WSFO and the RFC for information during the flood event which
heavily impacted the operations staff.

Recommendation VII.7

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-8

Automatic answering systems should be explored which can provide
cost effective and efficient service state-wide for public and
emergency service information.

Finding VII.8

The RFC prepares and issues flood watch and warning products for
the WSFO Anchorage area of responsibility when the RFC is in
operation.

Recommendation VII.8

The WSFO Anchorage should prepare and issue all hydrologic
watches, warnings, and statements during flood threats in the
Anchorage area of responsibility. The RFC should be the
hydrologic operations support facility to the WSFO in providing
hydrologic information, data, and guidance. This is consistent
with the modernization plan for WSFO/RFC operations. This
requires a hydrology training program for the WSFO operations
staff so they can fulfill their hydrologic responsibilities.

Finding VII.9

A Service Hydrologist had been added to the Anchorage WSFO staff
in 1994. This should improve the WSFO hydrology services
program.

Recommendation VII.9

The new Service Hydrologist at WSFO Anchorage should be involved
in the design and implementation of the procedures in
Recommendation VII.8. The Service Hydrologist should team with
the WSFO Science and operations officer to design the hydrologic
training for the WSFO staff.

Finding VII.10

A Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) program is needed at
the Alaska Region WSFOs to support river forecasting at the RFC.
The QPFs can improve the flood forecasting capability. The new
SOO will be an important factor in developing the new QPF
program.

Recommendation VII.10

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-9

The Alaska Region should design and implement an operational QPF
program. A QPF development team composed of the Regional
Scientist, the S00s, the DOH, a Hydrometeorology Analysis and
Support (HAS) forecaster, and selected lead forecasters should
develop the program. The program should begin with operational
QPFs to support the RFC in some form in 1996.

Finding VII.11

The flood product lead times ranged from 0 hours to over 17
hours. Most areas with 0 hour lead time are areas containing no
real-time stream gauges. The areas with the lead time of 16
hours or more have stream gauges.

Recommendation VII.11

The recommended additional automatic (Recommendation-VI.I.2) or
manual stream gauges in areas with flood potential will provide
monitoring capabilities to increase the lead time in data-sparse
areas.

Finding VII.12

Significant damage can and did occur because of debris flows
rather than water inundation.

Recommendation VII.12

The RFC should develop criteria to identify the potential for
debris threats in high intensity rainfall events. The threat
should be coordinated with the WSFO in the flood threat area so
debris potential is included in any flood products.

Finding VII.13

The information content of the watch and warning products was
appropriate for the data-sparse areas affected by the flooding.
The products for the areas in which there were no real-time river
gauges for reference were, by necessity, somewhat vague on the
details of the water levels. Products for areas with real-time
stream gauges specified the reported stages and the estimated
time of crest, but were not specific on the crest stage forecast.

Recommendation VII.13

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter I-10

The recommended increase in the network of precipitation and
river gauges should improve water level forecasts. WSR-88D radar
and satellite precipitation estimates should also improve the
specific forecasts of crest stage and time.

Finding VII.14

Residents and emergency service agencies in flooded areas want to
have action statements in our products to help guide residents in
responding to the flood threat. The emergency service agencies
can provide the best guidance for which statements to include.

Recommendation VII.14

Action statements should be coordinated with emergency services
agencies to ensure applicability to the events taking place. The
statements should be relevant to the potential impact of the
event. The list of applicable statements should be readily
available to the operations staff. The operations staff should
coordinate with the emergency service agencies in the impacted
areas during events to ensure proper statements are being
included in the products.

Finding VII.15

WSFO Anchorage Hydrology Manual had been updated just prior to
the flood event with a list of station identifiers used by the
RFC.

Recommendation VII.15

The WSFO staff should review the Hydrology Manual periodically to
remain familiar with site identifiers. There should be
hydrologic services drills at least annually to keep the staff
well practiced in hydrologic events.

Finding VII.16

Mudslides often occur in heavy rain events. The State Department
of Public Safety is responsible for issuing alerts for mudslides.

Recommendation VII.16

The WCMs should develop general guidelines for mudslide
information in coordination with the RFC and the Department of

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter I-11

Public Safety. During heavy rain events or potential heavy rain
events, WSFOs should coordinate with the RFC and the Department
of Public Safety on including a threat of mudslides in our watch
and warning products to provide better customer service.

Finding VIII.1

The pathway for NWS watch, warning, and statement information to
the ADES Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on Ft. Richardson was
through the NWWS. The ADES staff manually transferred the NWS
products into the new ADES Emergency Services Information System
(ESIS) for distribution to a limited number of other emergency
management offices.

Recommendation VIII.1

The Alaska Region should work with the ADES to develop a more
robust ESIS. The system should support information flow among all
the emergency services organizations and the WSFOs/RFC. The
system should be based on modern communications alternatives.

The ESIS would allow the free flow of timely and vital weather
information among the ADES, emergency services organizations, and
the NWS offices. Information would include watches, warning, and
statements along with a flow of reports from the affected areas.

Note (5): Meetings have been held since the flood with
the ADES and Alaska Region headquarters staff to discuss
the ADES ESIS and including the NWS as a participant on
the ESIS. The planning, designing, and implementation of
NWS participation in the ESIS is currently an active
project of the Region.

Finding VIII.2

The ADES did not have comprehensive knowledge on NWS products.

Recommendation VIII.2

The ESSD should prepare a comprehensive list of NWS products and
services, listed by each WSFO and the RFC. These lists will also
contain office hours of operations, phone numbers, and names of
points of contact.

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-12

Finding VI11.3

The dissemination of NWS flood products was hampered by:

0 The lack of coverage by NWR transmitters in the flood
impacted areas,

0 The lack of comprehensive broadcast media dissemination,

0 The lack of an effective dissemination capability within the
emergency management community.

0 The lack of easy access to NWS products by telephone.

Recommendation VIII.3.1

NWR transmitters should be provided in the Kenai/Soldotna area
and the Mat-Su Valley. Ideal transmitters sites would be at the
Borough emergency management offices and/or their dispatch
centers. The Alaska Region should encourage the ADES and the
Borough Emergency Services to apply for FEMA flood mitigation
funding for the purchase and installation of the NWR
transmitters.

Note (6): The purchase and installation of NWR
transmitters for the Kenai and Mat-Su Boroughs has been
included in the flood mitigation planning and funding
initiatives for each of the Boroughs.

Recommendation VIII.3.2

The Alaska Region should participate in the ADES' ESIS, which is
to include all of the state's emergency management offices in the
system. Other key state and federal organizations, such as the
State Troopers and the NWSI Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, will
also be included.

Note (7): This project is currently under way. See Note
(5) under Recommendation VIII.1.

Recommendation VIII.3.3

Repeating Recommendation VIIJ, automatic answering systems
should be explored which can provide cost effective and efficient
service state-wide for public and emergency service information.

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-13

1.3 Final Remarks

Our goal in this report is to properly illuminate the strengths
and weaknesses in the National Weather Service Alaska Region
flood warning services. The Alaska Region is committed to
further strengthening the flood preparedness and warning program.
Steps have already been taken to accomplish that goal, such as
taking advantage of the new modernization positions (WCMs, SOOs,
Service Hydrologist) and technologies such as the WSR-88D doppler
radar, the new GOES 9 satellite, and the Alaska Region Operations
Network (ARONET).

Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-14

Chapter II

Description and Impact of Floods

September 1995 was a very wet month in south central Alaska.
Included in a series of cyclones was a single cyclone that
produced in excess of 20 inches of rainfall in several days in
some locations. The rain caused flooding on many streams in
south central Alaska that caused an estimated $10 million damage
to private homes and public facilities. Areas reporting flooding
are shown in Figure 1.

This report will focus on the period from September 19 through
October 2, 1995, which is when the flooding reached warning
levels. There was no loss of life and no reports of serious

Figure 1. Areas reporting flooding during the September-October
1995 south central Alaska flood event.

Description: Chapter II-1

injury due to this flood. However, a hiker was swept to her
death while attempting to cross a swollen stream from a precursor
storm on September 17.

During the latter half of September 1995, the precipitation rich
regime had its roots in a persistent long wave pattern. A long
wave trough in the north Pacific Ocean and a blocking long wave
anticyclone in eastern Alaska and western Canada provided a
continuous flow of warm, moisture laden air over south central
Alaska. The heaviest rainfall came with the shorter wave
cyclones moving north in the long wave flow, bringing a new surge
of rain into south central Alaska every couple of days. The warm
air associated with one of the cyclones set record high
temperatures in many areas of the state.

The series of cyclones prior to September 19 generated saturated
soil conditions and greater than normal glacial melt in south
central Alaska. Heavy rainfall began along the southern
coastline of the Kenai Peninsula on the afternoon of September 19
and spread inland overnight. Strong southeast wind, aloft during
the storm, forced against southeast-facing mountain slopes of the
Kenai, Chugach, and Alaska mountain ranges generated the greatest
rainfall intensities. This rain caused the flooding in the areas
shown in Figure 1.

The strong southeast wind also led to the typical downslope
conditions west of the Chugach and Kenai mountain ranges that
resulted in very little rainfall in these areas. Thus, highly
variable rainfall amounts were reported.

Residents recounted being able to see surface runoff on the
mountain slopes. Steep mountain terrain caused rapid runoff that
carried heavy sediment loads onto flatter terrain. There, the
current slowed and sediments deposited in and adjacent to the
channels. The sediment deposition decreased the capacity of the
channels, thereby increasing the degree of flooding. Most
streams in south central Alaska crested on the 20th, 21st, or
22nd of September. The lower Kenai River on the Kenai Peninsula
did not crest until September 24, then remained above flood stage
for over 10 days.

Impact of the flooding includes damage to cabins, permanent
homes, sewage treatment facilities, roads, trails, bridges, power
transmission lines, airports, and railroad facilities. Fast
currents caused significant bank erosion, channel shifting, and
damage to dikes and levees. Figure 2 shows some of the impact of
the flooding.

Description: Chapter 11-2

'n, 'M

F777 Figure 2a. Flooding
in Seward.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .

Figure 2b. Erosion
damage in Seward
that cut through a
@street and exposed
utility lines.

7777-7 @MMMM@

&-p

...... .....

'Figure 2c. Stream
flowing through yard
of home in Girdwood.

Q, A

Description: Chapter 11-3

Chapter III

Meteorological Summa

III.1 Meteorolocical origins - September 14-18, 1995

Surface analyses from the National Meteorological Center (NMC)
and the Anchorage Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) were
consistent in locating, tracking, and representing the intensity
of cyclones preceding and during the flood event. These analyses
are a major meteorological diagnostic information source over the
North Pacific Ocean during real-time Alaska forecast operations.

Satellite information is the other major source of diagnostic
information. Forecasters had been monitoring typhoon "Oscar" for
several days on both the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological
Satellite (GMS) and the NMC's Pacific Surface Analysis as the
typhoon departed the vicinity of Japan. Cooling infrared
temperatures near the center of the cyclone in the satellite
imagery confirmed its extra-tropical evolution before the flood
event.

Long range prognoses indicated that this cyclone could pose a
problem for the state. The 0000 UTC September 16 cycle forecast
from the aviation model (AVN) carried the remains of "Oscar" and
a frontal cyclone initially some 1500 miles to the east southeast
of Oscar to the Gulf of Alaska in the 60-hour forecast. Cyclone
central pressures were 15-20 hecta Pascals (hPa) too weak in the
forecasts. This is a typical under forecast for the aviation
model. Cyclone positions were well forecasted by the models.

Model forecasts of quantitative precipitation and vertical air
motion in the North Pacific with these two cyclones began to give
indications of a large precipitation potential. Succeeding model
forecasts varied in the specific handling of events and continued
to under forecast cyclone central pressures. At one point, the
aviation model under forecasted the intensity of the lead system
by 37hPa, forecasting a weak ridge where the cyclone actually
verified. All models did improve their performance closer to the
onset of heavy rains.

The pattern that prevailed aloft prior to and during the flooding
period was a long wave ridge along southeast Alaska with a long
wave trough persisting in the western Gulf of Alaska. Shorter
waves moved through the persisting trough across south central
Alaska. This flow regime established a continuous flow of very
warm, high moisture air ripe for precipitating on the Kenai and

Meteorological Sunmary: Chapter III-1

Chugach Mountains.

On Sunday and Monday (September 17 and 18), very high
geopotential heights aloft covered south central Alaska. Very
warm temperatures, typical of a near-subtropical airmass at mid-
and high-levels, resulted in unusually high freezing levels
(9,000-12,000 feet) across the Prince William Sound area during
this period and again during the heavy rains several days later
(Figure 3). A precursor "rain storm" brought heavy rains (5+
inches) to Kodiak on Sunday and prompted a flood watch for rivers
and streams in the Seward area Sunday.

12 20

-18

. . . . . ..................
10 ........... .......... .. ......... ..........
(D .............. ........
LL
14
.... ............. .............. ............ ............ .......... ......
0

8
.. ............... ..... .............. ....... ...... ............. .... ........ .............. ............... .. .......... .............. .......... .............. .............. 12
C)
.............. . .... ............... ....... .. .. . . . ..... ...............
........ ----- -- ....... ... .............. ...................... .............. -.10 W

ca
.......... ..... ..... ...... .......... ... ... . ... . ......... . ...... .. ........... ................ 8
0
0
...... ....... .............. .............. ........... .................. ............ ........ .. .. ............
. .. . ......

4
.............. -------------- ... ........... ..... . ....... . ....... ............. @% .. . .... ..... ............... --------- ---- ...... ........ .............. .......... 4

.............. . . ....... ... .. .... ............... .......... ....... ...........
4.............. .. . . .............. 2 D_
..... . .......

FM
2 Ri '_- I..
0
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
September

Figure 3. Approximate freezing level in south central
Alaska and precipitation in Seward in September 1995.
On Monday, September 18, the lead cyclone which produced the
heavy rains several days later intensified rapidly in the eastern
Pacific. Central pressure fell from 994hPa to at least 978hPa on
both the NMC and WSFO Anchorage surface maps. Satellite imagery
at this time came from 3 sources: the Japanese GMS, the U.S.
Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-7, and
polar satellite imagery. Water vapor channels on the GOES-7
began to show a substantial contribution of moisture to the lead
cyclone from the remains of "Oscar" further to the west and
northwest. All satellite imagery continued to suggest a decrease
in tops of clouds associated with ex-typhoon "Oscar," indicating
a diminishing threat of heavy rains.
I

Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-2

Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the pattern which persisted for the
flood event. The "bright" white cloud masses evident in Figures
4b and 4c over and approaching south central Alaska are
correlated with deep concentrations of moisture and high amounts
of precipitation. The Nested Grid Model (NGM) forecasts in
Figure 5, which show a typical model flow pattern for this event,
were generally accurate. The QPFs from the models are quite
another matter. The NGM 12-hour integrated QPF valid at the 24-
hour forecast time peaks at 0.42 inches over Prince William
Sound. The forecast precipitation pattern is not representative
of the extreme variations forced by the south central Alaska
orography. This will be discussed more in detail in the
description of the performance of the radar in Chapter V.

111.2 Flooding Period: Ser)tember 19 - October 2, 1995

By 0000 UTC Wednesday, September 20, the lead cyclone had moved
north to 360 miles south of King Salmon as a 960hPa center. A
strong front extended southeast and then south from the center.
Because of the subtropical origins of this lead system, the
moisture content was very high.

Atmospheric temperatures were significantly higher than normal
during the precipitation event. Precipitation fell in the form
of rain at nearly all elevations of the mountainous terrain
surrounding Prince William Sound and along the Kenai Peninsula.
Dewpoints were also above normal. Strong east and southeast wind
accompanied the heavy rain. South central Alaska freezing levels
remained at or above 5000 feet from September 15 through
September 28 (see Figure 3).

Precipitation amounts during the event were substantial,
particularly along southeast-facing slopes. Strong southeast
wind during the event caused substantial orographic lifting that
enhanced precipitation along the mountains. Precipitation totals
during the period of heaviest rain, from the morning of the
September 18 through the morning of September 22, ranged from 10
to 20 inches in coastal areas, with amounts diminishing rapidly
inland where down slope wind caused a "rain shadow" effect.
Frequent rains persisted through the remainder of the month into
early October.

Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-3

3 9
MCI

IN $3 3
* * .3 RA
- 86
son
4 2. 53. 57. 173
44,2
'3 . . . 29

17 59 1

M 60

2 3 St 114
2r
to
fn
1\ Tx
1A
KCr
SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 4 PM ADT MONDAY SEP 18

dim. ECK

917

H
H 91
H

.94

Figure 4a. Surface analysis prepared by WSFO Anchorage for data time 1600
Alaska Daylight Time on September 18, 1995 (0000 UTC September 19).

_M -Uri _.vI uIn
rIMMA, (58NASOW) NORA-12 AVHRR CH. 4 09/18/95 fg":44:46n 4.4 K'M"
y

t2'

77
jk
g!

fw,
Figure 4b. NOAA-12 polar orbiter infrared (Channel 4) mosaic of
3 passes. Youngest pass is on the left with an image time of
1145 Alaska Daylight Time on September 18, 1995 (1945 UTC).

Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-5

-10 n in
WIN: (SON, 1SOW.. PAR- 12 AYN

Figure 4c. NOAA-12 polar orbiter infrared (Channel 4) mosaic
made up of 3 satellite passes. The left most pass is the
youngest with an image time of 2116 Alaska Daylight Time on
September 19, 1995 (0516 UTC September 20).

Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-6

'iF
Jk@

1H.

77\-

dil

10
- vj@a-\

33r y

oil

\sF 24

Figrure S. Nested grid model 4-panel 24-hour prognoses valid 1600 Alaska Daylight
time September 18, 1995 (0000 UTC September 19, 1995) . Upper left: 5OOhPa
geopotential (m) in solid, absolute vorticity in dashed; Upper right:vertical
velocity at 700hPa dashed and 12-h accumulated precipitation in solid; Lower
left: mean sea level pressure (hPa) in solid and 1000-500hPa geopotential
difference in meters dashed; Lower right: 700hPa geopotential (m) in solid and
relative humidity (tens of percent) dashed.

Meteorological Sunmary: Chapter 111-7

Chapter IV

Hydrological Summa

IV.1 Introduction

The significant hydrologic characteristics that contributed to
the flooding of streams in south central Alaska September 19 -
October 2, 1995, include wet antecedent conditions, warm
temperatures, sediment transport, and abundant precipitation
amounts.

South central Alaska was very wet in September. For the first
half of the month, coastal areas had received more than the
normal monthl_v precipitation, putting these areas at twice the
normal rainfall rate leading into the event. The wet antecedent
conditions caused saturated snow conditions and resultant above-
normal outflow from glaciers. The large flow enlarged drainage
tunnels through the ice, which contributed to rapid runoff of
rainfall and melt. Rainfall rates inland were slightly in excess
of normal, except for the Palmer vicinity, which was less than
normal.

Temperatures increased significantly during this event, causing
the precipitation to fall as rain at all elevations and, coupled
with high dewpoints and strong wind, increased the melt rate of
glacier ice. South central Alaska freezing levels remained at or
above 5000 feet from September 15 through September 28.

Precipitation amounts during the event were substantial, with the
heaviest amounts on southeast-facing slopes (Figure 6). Strong
southeast wind during the event caused substantial orographic
forcing that enhanced the precipitation in these areas. Total
precipitation during the period of heaviest rain ranged from 10
to 20 inches in coastal areas, with amounts diminishing rapidly
inland (Table 1). Persistent rainy weather through the remainder
of the month and into early October contributed to a slow decline
of water levels in affected areas.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-1

155W 15OW 145W

0.09

0.17 'A

2
4
0.06
.0
0 41- 0 1-1:1
2, >0.02
0 0.6z
4 56

2.
0 50 2
.44- 2
1.71
2.27
74
3--
3
3.79

0.
0 72 0
6.77 78
0.94 30
0

1.84 >
3.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 mjle@

Contours delineate rainfall totals in inches
6 during the period Sep. 18-22, 1995

Note: Precipitation contours are estimates of
2 the general rainfall pattern and do not depict
the significant. liocal variation expected in'
6 mountainous terrain.

Figure 6. Precipitation totals during September 1995 event.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-2

Table 1 Precipitation Totals for Storm and Last Half of September
(See App 11, Table 4 for Locations & Table 5 for Daily Data)

Observn Sep 18-22 Sep 17-30 Sep Pcp of Normal
Site I.D. Location (loc std) (inches) (inches) (inches) N
Anchorage and Chugach Mountains
AAA INDIAN PASS mid 3.90 4.80
ALYS ALYESKA 8 9.44 11.58 6.00 386
ANC ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT mid 0.56 1.36 2.70 101
APU ALASKA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY 9 0.98 1.67
AQY GIRDWOOD 4 6.20 >7.00
CER CHICHAGOF LOOP, EAGLE RIVER msa 1.63 1.93
EKPR EKLUTNA PROJECT 16 >2.85 >2.99
ER5 IEAGLE RIVER 5 SE 18 2.18 2.46
ERP EAGLE RIVER VISITORS CENTR. 4 3.20 3.40
GLP GLEN ALPS 4 3.50 4.30
LRC LITTLE RABBIT CK. 4 2.70 3.50
MLSC -MIRROR LAKE SCOUT CAMP 9 1.20 1.36
PAFR FORT RICHARDSON WTP 8 1.45 1.83
RBT RABBIT CK. 4 2.36 3.30
SEG SO FK. EAGLE RV. 4 2.09 >2.09
TUX TUXEDNIPARK 4 1.40 2.00
Kenai Peninsula
519 19 MILES NORTH OF SEWARD 7 6.34 9.24
5WD SEWARD, AT THE HOTEL 2 14.12 17.57 10.01 351
ABD TURNAGAIN PASS 4 6.49 9.12
ABM SUMMIT CREEK mid 5.50 7.90
ABR GRANDVIEW mid 6.50 8.00
APT ANCHOR RIVER 8 >1.58 >2.82
APT1 ANCHOR RV. NR ANCHOR PT. 4 1.84 3.06
BRM MIDDLE FK BRADLEY RIVER mid >2.31 >3.59
BRRE BRADLEY RESV. OUTLET mid 6.55 8.74
BRT BRADLEY RIVER @ TIDEWATER mid 5.12 6.26
CLK COOPER LAKE mid 7.60 9.00
COLK COOPER LAKE PROJECT 15 6.86 >8.77 5.31 >330
ENA KENAI FAA AIRPORT 4 0.77 2.33
EXT EXIT GLACIER VISITOR CENTER 17 10.54 14.49
GLQ GLACIER CK. @ BRUNO RD. 4 10.94 12.26
H9E HOMER 9 EAST 18 1.85 3.00
HCOV HALIBUT COVE, SOUTH OF HOMER 9 >5.06 >6.23
HOM HOMER mid 2.09 3.15 3.29 191
K9N KENAI 9 NORTH 7 0.72 2.09
KASI KASILOF 7 0.94 2.22 3.01 148
KMR KENAI MOOSE PENS mid 0.50 1.30
LWQ TRAIL RV. NR LAWING 4 5.30 7.90
WAS MOOSE PASS 17 6.64 10.34
MYS MYSTERY CK. @KENAI NWR 4 2.07 2.88
PRK NUKA RIVER @ PARK BOUNDARY mid 18.46 22.86
SILV SILVER LAKE NEAR MOOSE RIVER 7 1.36 1.93
SWD SEWARD ASOS mid >2.42 >5.31
SXQ SOLDOTNA 4 0.20 0.33
ITt IT I JTKA RAY I A 1 r, 1 1 QR7 JA47
Table 1 Precipitation Totals for Storm and Last Half of September

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-3

(See App 11, Table 4 for Locations & Table 5 for Daily Data)

Observn Sep 18-22 Sep 17-30 Sep Pcp of Normal
Site I. D. Location (loc std) (inches) (inches) (inches) N
Kodiak Island and Western Cook Inlet
5131 BIG RIVER LAKES 21 4.67 7.72 5.52 280
ADQ KODIAK- KODIAK ISLAND mid 4.49 >6.27 6.99 >179
CHIN SOUTH COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND 19 5.99 >12.18
INT INTRICATE BAY 18 3.23 4.16 4.39 190
OLIZ IOUZINKIE 7 7.36 11.16
Z30 I PORT ALSWORTH 18 0.81 1.27 2.49 102
Matanuska and Knik Basins
5WO LAZY MOUNTAIN 7 2.44 2.69
AK42 SUTTON 2 EAST 13 1.74 1.89
ANDL ANDERSON LAKE 7 0.73 1.07
LSU LITTLE SUSITNA RIVER 7 1.33 >1.70
LSUS LITTLE SUSITNA LARC 4 1.20 1.20
MAES MATANUSKA AGRI EXP STATION 9 2.56 2.88 2.43 237
MAG GLACIER PARK- MATANUSKA GLACIER 8 1.71 1.81
PAES PAMER IAS 9 1.58 1.79 2.50 143
PAQ PALMER MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 4 >1.68 A.68
SLIT SUTTON LARC 4 >2.3 >2.3
WAS WASILLA CREEK AT HYER ROAD 8 1.26 A.48
WAS3 IWASILLA 3 SOUTH 17 0.74 0.98 2.84 69
Susitna Basin
5HR HAYES RIVER 16 4.56 5.89
ACR SU RIVER AND ALEXANDER CK CONFL, 8 0.74 A.50
CANT CANTWELL 2 EAST 20 0.09 0.39
QLAK CHELATNA LAKE 8 1.07 2.21
LAK YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CK CONFL 9 1.07 A.48
PTI PUNTILLA LAKE 16 2.30 2.95 3.27 180
SKW SKWENTNA 16 >1.11 A.48 3.31 >89
SUN SUNSHINE 9 0.62 1.18
TKA TALKEETNA 20 0.41 A.36 4.23 >64
TIVIL TWELVE MILE LAKE 4 0.00 0.00
WIL WILLOW CREEK AT WILLOW 8 0.50 0.87
WILW WILLOW WEST 11 >0.45 >0.74
Copper River Basin
5GN TAHNETA PASS 17 2.20 2.37
5PX PAXSON 20 0.17 0.66
GAK GAKONA 9 0.11 0.39
GKN GULKANA FAA 4 >0.02 >0.02
KCAM GLENNALLEN KCAM 9 0.10 0.67 1.30 103
LKSU LAKE SUSITNA 17 0.06 0.38
MXY MCCARTHY 3 SOUTHWEST 18 2.27 2.77 1
TON TONSINA 7 2.02 2.28 1.24 368
Prince William Sound and Gulf of Alaska Coastline
5WT WHITTIER 21 20.75 31.05
QDN CORDOVA NORTH 14 10.78 15.60
QDV CORDOVA 4 >4.27 >7.49 13.78 >109
MAIN MAIN BAY 10 13.42 22.31
PTSW PORT SAN JUAN 12 6.46 11.80
VWS VALDEZ mid 3.79 >5.61 8.37 >134
YAK YAKHTAT mod A -QR -@l 1 Rq 1 A AR 9A

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-4

IV. 2 Data Accruisition

Steep, mountainous terrain contributes to highly variable
precipitation patterns. Stream flows in steep mountains respond
rapidly to precipitation. Numerous and strategically placed
real-time stream and rain gauges are required to ascertain
hydrologic response. The real-time stream and rain gauge network
in the areas impacted by this event is sparse with an average of
about one stream gauge per 1000 square miles and one rain gauge
per 750 square miles (Figures 7 and 8).

Stream gauges that are read manually by observers typically have
a lower temporal resolution than automated gauges because the
observer is not always available to read the gauge. Such gauges
are scheduled to be read and the readings telephoned to the RFC
once per day, with more frequent readings and reports during
significant water level rises. The frequency of readings and
reports at manual sites ranged from daily to hourly during the
event, with most sites providing only one or two readings per
day. Some river stage observers also measure and report
precipitation amounts.

Automated gauges are realistic alternatives in Alaska because of
mountainous and people sparse locations. Data transfer from on-
site sensors is by telephone, satellite, or meteorburst
technologies. Automated gauges provide high temporal resolution
of data and data are available within a few minutes to a few
hours of the reading.

Cooperative observers for the NWS climate program measure
precipitation daily, but do not routinely report the data until
the end of the month when they send in their written report of
the data. This is useful for post-event analyses, but not
available when forecasting the event.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-5

15ow 14 @W

CANT

5PX
N Ey

LKSU
URI
KA GAK
SUN. GKN
KC
K WO,,
-K
--A1-K1: Zwbz
MNJ"
LW
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ACR
@0 ... .. . . . .-
EB I
5WT

DN
ENA
MAIN
DV
3@-
ZX
15WD

INT"'
OM
0
.1,0 2,0 3,0 jo spmile@

Gauge data available w0fm 24bours of falling
ID Gauge data available for post storm aiialy@s
JQ
OU
z

CHI-N
Pj

Figure 7. Location of precipitation gauges in south central
Alaska (see Figure 8 for gauges inside inset box).

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-6

ZWILI
rL-S 'USI AK
w I Sw
v U
LOU -
.@A5WO
M@ES MPAQ
-ArIS3
MLSC@-@

A \--XER
'-tR5

P
UX.S
GLP

ALYS

1% E5W@T
FK M-RI
r/ \K9N

ENA
V
MIS/
101

KASIf
CLK 519

EXT

5
WD
WD-
-60N - \J

BRT
H9E, "BRRE-`4-- e,@
PRK'

HCOV

5 0 20
Mks
If
TUT, Gauge data available Mbin 24 hours of falng
MANC
TrOXI

150W ID Gauge data wailableforpost stwm analos
j
Figure 8. Location of precipitation gauges in Palmer,
Anchorage, and Kenai Peninsula areas.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-7

20 10

....... ....
18 ....... ..... . . ........ ....... .... ....... ... -4
........ ....... .... I. . . ..... ....... ....... ..
9

-8
16

14 . . .......
....... . ...... . .... ...... ....... ....... ..................... ... ... . ....... ......... ....... ..... ....... .......
7

EL
. ....... ...... ------ -
(D 12 e@ . ............ . ......6
10 5 0
8 ....... ...... .
....... ........
............... ... ........ ........ ...... .
.. ..................4
CL
6 3 Z
(D
4 2 cL

....... ...
2 ... ........ ------- -. .......t ....... ........ ------- .......1
...... .....

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
September 1995

Figure 9. Resurrection River stages at Exit Glacier Road bridge
and precipitation at the Seward Hotel.

IV.3 Hydrologic Charactgristics

IV.3.1 Seward Area

September was also a very wet month in the Seward area. Rain
gauges in the area collected from 4 inches north of Seward to 12
inches in town during September prior to the 17th. This caused
saturated soil conditions that lead to increased runoff from
rainfall. Rain two weeks prior to this flood event caused minor
flooding on Resurrection River (Figure 9) and area streams.

On the night of September 19-20, the Resurrection River began to
rise sharply due to high intensity rainfall (Figure 9). Although
rainfall intensities are difficult to ascertain due to the poor
spatial and temporal resolution, it appears that the recurrence
interval is approximately 50 years for the 24-hour duration
(Table 2). Freezing levels were also high, which increased the
glacial melt contribution to the river. At 10 a.m. on September
20, the Resurrection River crested after rising over 8 feet at
the Seward Highway bridge in 30 hours; this is approximately 4
feet above flood stage. Numerous other streams in the Seward
area also flooded. Severe bank erosion and deposition were

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-8

reported. Roads were closed and standing water flooded numerous
low lying areas. Flood damage was reported at the Lowell Creek
bridge, University of Alaska Marine Center, airport, small boat
harbor, and sewage and power facilities. Water levels on the
Resurrection River and local streams receded very slowly and it
was not until September 22 that the flood warning was canceled.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-9

Table 2 Rainfall Amount, Time of Occurrance, and Estimated Recurrence Interval at Selected Sites

Precipitation Duration I hr 2 hr 3 hr 4 hr 5 hr 6 hr 12 hr 24 hr 36 hr 48 hr
Kodiak

Time of Observation 201OOz 20/01 z 20102z 20102z 20/02z 20/03z 20/09z 20/20z 21/08z 21120z
Precipitation 0.38 0.73 1.04 1.39 1.64 1.81 2.20 2.69 3.07 4.08
Recurrence Interval 1 1 2 1 1 1 <2
Bradley Lake Dam
Time of Observation 20/11 z 20/12z 20/12z 20/12z 20/12z 20/12z 20/14z 21/02z 21/11z 21/23z
Precipitation 0.27 0.54 0.75 1.00 1.24 1.51 2.37 3.62 3.84 4.36
Recurrence Interval <1 <1 <1 1 1 2 2
Seward I I
Time of Observation 20/1 8z 20120z 20/18z 21/00z 21/12z
Precipitation 1.26 2.50 6.76 9.29 10.69
Recurrence Interval 5 50 so
Glacier Ck nr Seward
Time of Observation 19/18Z '-19/18Z ignaz 19/12z 19/13z 19/14z 19/20z 20/05z 20/17z 21/05Z
Precipitation 0.34 0.65 0.97 1.27 1.50 1.75 2.99 5.81 7.34 8.34
Recurrence Interval <1 <1 -cl <1 1 5 5
Lawing
Time of Observation 20/1 Oz 20111 z 20112z 20/13z 20/14z 20/15z 20/21z 21/03Z 21/15z 22/03z
Precipitation 0.30 0.50 0.70 1.00 1.20 1.30 2.50 3.80 4.60 4.80
Recurrence Interval <1 <1 <1 <1 2 2 2
Turnagain Pass
Time of Observation 20109z 20110z 20111 z 20/13z 20114z 20/20z 21/04z 21/15z 22/00z
Precipitation 0.40 0.60 0.90 1.30 1.60 2.60 4.20 5.20 5.50
Recurrence Interval 5 2 5 2 5 25 10
Whittier *

Time of Observation 21106z 22106z
Precipitation 10.92 14.01
Recurrence Interval 50 25
Girdwood

Time of Observation 20/09z 20/1 Oz 20111 z 20tl2z 20113z 20/14z 20/20z 21/03z 21/14z 21/22z
Precipitation 0.50 0.80 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 3.20 4.60 5.30 5.60
Recurrence Interval 25 10 10 5 25 50 25
Eagle River Visitors Center
Time of Observation 20/19z 20/20z 20120z 20120z 20120z 20120z 20120z 21/08z 21/20z 22/08z
Precipitation 0.20 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.80 1.00 1.60 2.30 3.00 3.20
Recurrence Interval <1 1 1 2 2 5 10
Matanuska Glacier Park
'rime of Observation 21/13z 21113z 21113z 21/13z 21/13z 21/13z 21/13z 22/01 z22/13z , 23/01Z
Precipitation 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.80 1.40 1.70 1.70 1.80
Recurrence Interval 5 2 2 2 5 5 2
Hayes River *
Time of Observation 21/00z 221OOz
Precipitation 2.83 3.83
Recurrence Interval 10 10
Valdez
Time of Observation 21/12z 21/15z 21115z 22109z 22/09z 22/09z
Precipitation 0.65 1.01 1.33 2.43 3.10 3.36
Recurrence Interval <1 <1 <1 <1 <2
Cordova Town * I
Time of Observation 21/23z 21/23z
Precipitation 6.02 8.32
lRecurrence Interval 1 2
* Observed on a 24-hour interval
iv.3.2 Kenai River Basin

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-10

Heavy rain in the upper Kenai River basin beginning September 18
caused the Kenai River to begin rising. Water levels on the
Kenai River were above flood stage at all locations by the 22nd
(Figure 10). Water levels crested at Cooper Landing on the upper
river on September 23 and at Kenai Keys and Soldotna on the lower

50000 .. ........ ...... ........
-tt
40000 . ......
Soldotna

........ ....... ...... . ........
.. ....... ............... ... ....... ........ ........ ........ ....... ........ ....... ........ ........ ...... ....... . ....... .... ........ .......
....... ...

.E 30000
4) Flood Level 1
... ........ ........ ......... ........ ........ . ........ . ...... ..... ... ........ ........ ....... ......... ........ ........ ....... ........ ....

20000
Cooper
Landing
/i Flood Level
10000 . ... ......... ........ ......... ........ ........ ........ ........ ...... ....... ... ..... ......T....... .........
......... ..... ... ...... . ......

...... ........
0 .... ........ -.0
........ ....... . ...... ...... ....... .... ... ... ..
..... . ...
16 11 is 2i 23 26 @7 ' 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1 17
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
September October

Figure 10. Kenai River discharges during flood event.

river on September 24. At the time of the crest, water levels
were 2.1 feet above flood stage at Cooper Landing, 3.5 feet above
flood stage at Kenai Keys, and 2.5 feet above flood stage at
Soldotna. The peak discharge at Soldotna was estimated at 42,300
cubic feet per second (cfs), which has a recurrence interval of
>100 years (Table 6 in Appendix II). The highest recorded
discharge in 30 years of record at Soldotna prior to this event
was 33,700 cfs, which resulted from a combined rainfall and
glacier dammed lake release on September 9, 1977. Water levels

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-11

fell below flood stage on September 28 at Cooper Landing and on
October 2 at the Kenai Keys and Soldotna.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the resulting hydrographs at
Cooper Landing and Soldotna, runoff in the upper basin above
Cooper Landing would have been on the order of 7 inches. The
entire basin runoff is estimated to be on the order of 4.5
inches. If the intervening area is split between mountainous and
non-mountainous terrain, approximately 7 inches of runoff from
the mountainous terrain and 1 inch of runoff from the non-
mountainous terrain would correspond with the reporting rain
gauge sites and produce the required volume.

Post analysis of all the precipitation gauges has indicated that
about half of the flood runoff came from the area to the south of
the Kenai River, including the Harding Icefield. This means that
runoff from the basins of tributaries such as Cooper Creek,
Russian, Skilak, and Killey rivers was substantial. Runoff from
the Juneau Creek and Moose River basins is unquantifiable, but
they appear to drain areas that received much lighter amounts of
rain.

One unique aspect of this event is the possible large role of the
runoff from the Harding Icefield. The following information
leads to the conclusion that rainfall runoff from the icefield
(differentiating between rainfall runoff and snow/ice melt
runoff), was large:

1. Freezing levels ranged from 6000 to over 9000 ft during
the September 18-23 period. Much of the icefield was bare
ice or firn. Precipitation from this warm, sub-tropical
storm fell as rain, even at the highest elevations over the
icefield.

2. Tustumena Lake rose over 3 feet, leading to minor
flooding on the Kasilof River, during this same time period.
With precipitation gauges in that area only recording light
amounts of rain, the only other source of this runoff was
drainage from the icefield.

3. Exit Glacier Ranger Station received 10.5 inches of rain
from September 18-22. Exit Glacier Creek, which only drains
Exit Glacier and some unknown area of the Harding Icefield,
rose roughly 5 feet from September 17 to September 20 before
the gauge washed away. This rise represents close to a
order of magnitude increase in the flow from the glacier.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-12

4. Bradley Lake Hydroelectric Project, located southwest of
the Harding Icefield in similar terrain, received
substantial inflow to the lake during this event. A
precipitation gauge near Nuka Pass collected 18.5 inches of
rainfall from September 18-22.

The reason why this rainfall runoff from the Harding Icefield is
unique is that, in general, large glaciers and icefields act as
storage elements in the hydrologic budget of a basin, storing
snow and rain, to slowly release it sometime later. Rainfall on
a unsaturated snowcover is absorbed by the snow much the same as
dry soil absorbs infiltrating water. In the case of the Harding
Icefield in mid-September, snowcover on the ice was at its
minimum for the year and crevasses were abundant. In addition,
firn layers would likely have been saturated and at the freezing
point due to previous warm rains. In late summer, most glaciers
have enlarged englacial/subglacial water conduits since the
summer's meltwater enlarges these conduits faster than the
plastic strain rate closes them. What this means,
hydrologically, is that heavy rain is able to pass through the
englacial/subglacial drainage systems on the order of days
instead of weeks, with little loss of volume in transit. The
contribution from the Harding Icefield to the flooding of the
Kenai and Resurrection Rivers is unknown exactly, but is most
likely significant.

iv.3.3 Chugach Mountains Basins

During the early morning hours of September 20, Glacier Creek and
other streams in Girdwood rose sharply. By mid-morning, overbank
flooding and severe bank erosion had caused damage to various
structures and roads. The peak flow at California Creek was
estimated to have a recurrence interval of about 50 years (Table
6 in Appendix II). Channel deposition and erosion was severe on
Glacier Creek and other local streams. The 24-hour precipitation
of 4.6 inches measured in one gauge had an estimated recurrence
interval of 50 years (Table 2). On September 21 streams were
receding and the flood warning for Girdwood was canceled.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain in the Chugach Mountains on
September 20-21 caused Ship Creek, Eagle River, Peters Creek,
Eklutna River, Hunter Creek, and other tributaries to the Knik
River to rise sharply. Debris accumulated on the bridge pier on
Hunter Creek that caused severe erosion of the abutment that
resulted in bridge failure. Bridge failure and abandonment due
to channel shifting were also reported in the upper Eklutna River

Hydrological Sunanary: Chapter IV-13

basin. The lower Knik River continued to rise until early
September 21, when it crested, inundating the Old Glenn Highway
on the north approach to the Knik River bridge. Low-lying areas
were flooded, including homes in the Wind Song Subdivision.
Significant sediment loads were transported by steep mountain
streams. The loads were deposited as stream gradients reduced,
covering roads in some locations. The recurrence interval of the
peak flow on the Knik River, Eagle River, and Peters Creek were
estimated by U. S. Geologic Survey (USGS) to be >500 years (Table
6 in Appendix II).

iv.3.4 Western Susitna Basin

Heavy rain during September 19-21 in the Alaska Range and in the
Tordrillo Mountains caused the Skwentna and Yentna Rivers as well
as Lake Creek to rise sharply. The Yentna River at its
confluence with Lake Creek rose over 10 feet and flooding was
reported at numerous locations. The Skwentna River flooded
numerous structures in Skwentna on September 21. Damage to the
Skwentna airport was reported. The Yentna River began flooding
structures on September 21. Water levels receded slowly and the
flood warning was canceled on September 25.

iv.3.5 Cordova, Valdez, and Richardson Highway Areas

Rain began in the Valdez and lower Copper River areas on
September 19, with the greatest intensities on September 20 and
September 21. Rain in the Valdez area brought streams out of
their banks on September 21. Water flowed over the Richardson
Highway in several locations and threatened a bridge in the Lowe
River Canyon, forcing a road closure. Water also flowed over
sections of the Copper River Highway near Cordova and flooded
some homes in Cordova. A previously existing problem with a
migrating channel of the glacial Scott River near Cordova was
made worse by the rains, contributing to the flooding in Cordova.
The lower Copper River reached record high levels on September 23
that threatened the historic Million Dollar Bridge. The flood
warnings for the Valdez and Cordova areas were canceled on
September 22, while a flood watch for the Tonsina vicinity
remained in effect until September 24.

Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-14

Chapter V

WSR-88D Performance

V.1 Introduction

A new Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) was
installed in Kenai during the fall of 1993. This radar was
upgraded with a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) redundant
(two-channel) system in June of 1995. This meteorological radar
with improved sensitivity and resolution gives forecasters real-
time information on wind and precipitation. The WSR-88D uses
precipitation echoes from one of the lowest four slices to
calculate a rainfall intensity. The rainfall intensity is summed
over time to create one hour, three hour, and storm total
accumulations. These three products are then available in the
form of color graphic display for the forecasters to examine.

During the flooding period, forecasters were able to use the
radar to determine areas with persistent, heavy rain. These
areas included the Kenai Mountains, the Chugach Mountains, and
the eastern slopes of the Alaska Range. However, accurate
rainfall totals are difficult to determine because surrounding
mountain ranges block the radar signal and the real-time rain
gauge network is inadequate for calibration.

Portions of the event were archived on Archive Level IV. Archive
Level II is unavailable on the FAA radars in Alaska. Other
problems included system outages at the radar during periods
before the event and for brief periods during the event. At
least one forecaster mentioned that problems with the radar
communication lines also caused brief outages during the event.
Additionally, the newness of the radar and the lack of any
earlier heavy rain events meant that forecasters had few
experiences using the radar during flooding situations.

v.2 Beam Blockage

The Kenai WSR-88D is located to the northwest of the Kenai
Mountains and to the southwest of the Chugach Mountains. This
greatly reduced the effectiveness of the radar precipitation
products, because the heavy rains which occurred were
predominantly confined to the eastern and central portions of the
Kenai and Chugach mountains. This will be a continual problem
for stratiform precipitation which is often, as in this case,
greatly enhanced by orography and typically falls predominately

WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-1

on the southeastern slopes of the Kenai Mountains.

Except for a few gaps, beam blockage from the Kenai Mountain
Range occurs over most of the lowest slice, which is 0.5 degrees
elevation angle (Figure 11). Therefore, the precipitation
algorithm automatically selects the next higher slice, 1.5
degrees elevation, to compute rainfall estimates over the
opposite side of the mountain range. Elevations of the 1.5
degree slice range from 10,000 to 21,000 feet mean sea level
(MSL) over the Kenai Mountains and their southeastern slopes are
shown in Figure 12. This results in three major problems which
leads to a significant underestimate of rainfall totals. First,
1.5 degrees elevation places the radar beam above the areas of
heavy orographically enhanced rainfall. Secondly, the radar beam
was above the freezing level, where reflectivity returns from
frozen precipitation are much less than from liquid
precipitation. And lastly, any partial beam blockage of either
slice eliminates a percentage of the return, which will also lead
to underestimation.

Radar precipitation products also indicated the presence of heavy
rain on the eastern slopes of the Alaska Range. This area was in
an up-slope flow region to the west of the radar and rainfall
estimates for this area may have been more accurate because no
beam blockage was occurring.

Nedthtation awmessing Algorithm

Sevationsficevsrunle Beam blockne dae to motmtains

Partial Sam Blockage
4 slice

2.4 sl.,cz

.5 slice

Kenai Mowtains
It 27m T" Dom Blockage
3.4 2.4 1.5 or 27. the slice with Now
Elevation of slice used reFlectivitV is used.
Figure 11. Precipitation preprocessing algorithm
:::=K.. Moiintam

characteristics in response to beam blockage because
of mountains.

WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-2

TKA & N

T I
5HR SK14 5GN

. _PA

iBF S
SP C
0__-0__N 6 T
BT 30 .7K 13K

0 K
N 21
60 30K
11 1.5 DEGREE @DO
SLICE
ARST E 90H
7 ELEVATIONS IN
THOUSANDS OF FEET

0.5 DEGREE
120H SLICE

ELEVATIONS OF 0.5 DEGREE SLICE AND 1.5 DEGREE
0 SLICE AT 30, 60, 90 AND 120HM RANGE RINGS.

Figure 12. Elevations of 0.5 degree slice and 1.5
degree slice at 30, 60, 90 and 120mm range markers.

V.3 Gauge Comiparison

The radar products underestimated the rainfall at all gauge
locations in the central and eastern portions of the Kenai
Mountains (Figure 13). However, this was expected due to the
beam blockage. Real-time gauge precipitation data, plotted in
Figure 13, shows comparative gauge data under the radar umbrella
is very limited. Only a few gauges are available in the Kenai
Mountains, and none of these are available in an area where no
beam blockage of the lowest beam occurs. As mentioned earlier,
in most cases the 1.5 degree elevation slice will be too high to
produce accurate precipitation products. Another problem is that
the Hourly Digital Precipitation Accumulation product is not yet
available from the Alaska radars.
4
T'-
fiF @5HR

WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-3

The only locations where radar data can be compared to gauge data
are west of the Kenai and Chugach Mountain ranges. However, this
was an area on the leeward side of the mountains that experienced
very little rainfall due to down slope conditions.

Only very crude comparisons can be made to gauge data because the
Digital Product is not available. Build 7.0 software was running
at the WSR-88D at the time of the event. With this version, the
data levels for precipitation are at a set scale which is
designed for heavy convective precipitation. Total gauge
rainfall over the lower elevations and on the leeward side of the
mountains from the September 18 to September 22 ranged from near
one-half inch to about two inches. Eight of 12 selected gauges
in this area were within the range of the displayed data levels
on the Storm Total Precipitation product.

v.4 Briaht Band Contamination

The precipitation products during this event appeared to have
been partially contaminated due to the high reflectivity returns
in the melting layer. Determining whether or not bright band
contamination is occurring is much more difficult due to the
topography around the Kenai radar than at many other radar sites.
Mountain--ranges are located to the northwest and southeast of the
radar at similar distances. With heavy rains normally occurring
over the mountains, this creates a higher precipitation pattern
in a slight arc over both mountain ranges. In a strong
southeasterly flow, down sloping occurs on the western slopes of
the Kenai Mountains and can extend across much of Cook Inlet.
This leads to an echo return minimum over the lower areas and
around the radar.

Determining whether higher returns are a reflection of the
melting layer or orographic enhancement is very difficult due to
the lack of gauges in the mountains. This event was a case
where the radar products indicated larger rainfall totals
occurring in areas in which the 0.5 and 1.5 degree slice would
have been traveling through the melting layer. This would
suggest that the precipitation totals from the radar would
overestimate the rainfall in these areas. No gauge data were
available from any of these areas to verify the radar data.

The radar uses a Bi-Scan Maximization beyond 27 nautical miles
(nm) to select the radar slice to use for determining rainfall.
When both the 0.5 and 1.5 degree slice are available, the slice
which has the higher reflectivity is used to compute
precipitation estimates. A semicircular pattern was visible in

NSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-4

WiNn
12
ME. HE, H;*
11/95 22: 17
li
j.' S T M -PRECIP 80 STP
_H.H.N'
I '.:I NM RES
24 NM
__Z'_ IM. OEM.'
'0*9-/ 2 3
K HP.N..
HE zry'.i T
Ei ..Nil /95 03 00
HNEF Hh, i i
9T Mlff
RDA
Hi gr.. I
HE YN M',i H T"N'T
1, HE., _EEHH,.H III.. A H.G: @"G,0 4 3 3 3 N
F.
lZ
F -356 IF T '151 /20/56W
-gp; le,@

rip _T. Ei
MAX= 2
iim
I IN
HIE
H MODE A 21
r
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W
CNTR 128DEG 32NM
IHHHEH B E G = 0 9 / 18 / 9 5 15 : 4 7
END=09/23/95 03:03
gill
H_11 ND
0. 0 1 IN
0. 1
M
'iA6 1.0
iE: HIM 2. 0
Nil
Him.:
3. 0
H'
4.0
w
5.0
6.0
7. 0
IIIE. ME:
8.0
'A
9 0
T:
H IEE HME.H-EH
H
0 N 10 0
li..
HIH;11
Jill
1 0
M FUNiN
13 0
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ilEH i
HIM
Hilt 11,
HK is; ME Ill
.R;
RUN` IIHNNI
MAG FL=
NN I"H: 1:
OVL:AN
HiHil
MptImmi H il
Hi* HIMMMAH....: R

HEIN

CUR. L/L
Win
L
NiIIIIN
W I Z) M
El! Hit
2205 R
PROD RCVD: STP RPS
ME HER
No PAHG 221 1
HIM.:
..,H] 11/2212 DELTA SYS
HE T NWH pi
.... HE
HIM";
CAL 0.00 DBZ
i0i
HARDCOPY
EE

H jH HARDCOPY REQUEST
ACCEPTED
N. Hi
H

lip
Rli.mjiii. H liNT'i,
Figure 13. Storm total precipitation product for the period 1547 UTC September 18 to
0303 UTC September 23, 1995. Precipitation amounts from gauges are also plotted.

................ W1117,
illlll@ M@m
ELEUATION OF THE 124 HM I , I -magg
1.5 DEGREE SLICE 99/23/95 03@ea
RDA;PARG 50/43A,,
ze IN CIRCLED AREA 356 FT 15le
m4x= 27.5 IN
IS BETWEEN 6K
MODE A 21
AND 10K FEET@ C4TR ODEG
ELEVATION OF
1.5 DEGREE s", 'nt! q@
NO
SLICE FROM e.8 IN
5.5K TO 8.5 0.1
FEET. 2,0

15 ek
MAG=IX FL= I -Adic
OVL AA

PULAR=38 Nfl 38 Ab

Z'@
yp@

PIS sp" 1826
DED. Rfr. LINE I
DISCONNECTED
11/1836 LINE I
ELEVATIONS REQUESTED DSCUCT
AT 0@5 SL@CE HAROC"Opy
OF
-@-ELEVATION ,C@4FIY
FROM S@SK TOtr HARC D
ACCEPTED
0,5 SLICE AT
7,5K FEET.
?@SK FEET@

. .. .. .. .... .. .. . ... . . ......... .... ... ... ..... .................. .. ..............
Figure 14. Semicircular pattern in the storm total precipitation
product.

the Storm Total Precipitation product (Figure 14). Higher
precipitation totals were evident to the northwest and southeast
of the radar between the ranges of 35 and 45 nm. This area
matches a level of near 7500 ft at the 1.5 degree slice. A
second semicircular area of high totals is visible from 60 to 70
nm to the east through south and to the southwest of the radar.
At the 0.5 degree slice, this area would also appear near the
melting level at 6200 ft to the southwest and 7500 ft to the
southeast. The second semicircular pattern to the southeast of
the radar is broken up where most of the rain totals were created
from the 1.5 degree slice due to the beam blockage of the 0.5
degree slice.
IL

v.5 Conclusion

The WSR-88D radar provides an abundance of new information which

NSR-88D Perfo-mance: Chapter V-7

has never been available to the forecaster. However,
precipitation products need to be calibrated with ground truth
from real-time rain gauges.

Rainfall amounts in areas which have partial beam blockage may
improve as terrain data is scheduled to be added to the radar.
This will help correct for beam blockage by adding additional
reflectivities in areas which contain up to 50 percent beam
blockage. For the eastern slopes of the Kenai Mountains, where
total beam blockage occurs, the radar products will need to be
supplemented with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and gauge
data.

In this event, partial and total beam blockage from the Kenai
Mountains resulted in the radar precipitation products greatly
underestimating the rainfall in the central and eastern
mountains. This was because the second elevation slice of the
radar was scanning above the freezing level and above the areas
of orographically enhanced precipitation.

It was possible that bright band contamination occurred over the
central and western Kenai Mountains. This would have led to an
overestimate of precipitation; however, the beam blockage in
these areas led to an underestimation that countered this effect.
The lack of any gauges in appropriate locations made it
impossible to quantify the real effects of bright band
contamination.

WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-8

Chapter VI

Flood Preparedness

VI.1 Introduction

The primary mission of the NWS is the issuance of hazardous
weather and flood warnings in order to reduce the loss of life,
injury, and property damage resulting from natural disasters.
However, the NWS also conducts a preparedness program to go
beyond just the issuance of warnings. Preparedness programs are
usually composed of at least four major activities: (1)
coordination with local agencies to establish good
communications, (2) organization and training of spotter groups
and rainfall observers, (3) identification of areas vulnerable to
specific hazards, and (4) a public hazardous weather and flooding
education program. Moreover, the successful accomplishment of
these programs depends upon the cooperative efforts between NWS
field offices and local government officials, private
organizations and the general public.

The WCM position at the Anchorage WSFO was filled in 1994. This
is a new NWS modernization position at each WSFO. The
responsibilities of the WCM include developing and maintaining
the preparedness program, as listed above. The WCM position is
recognized in the NWS as vital to a vigorous and healthy
preparedness program.

The DOH is another NWS modernization position recently filled at
the RFC. The DOH teams with the WCM in the area of flood
preparedness.

The findings and recommendations in this flood report will serve
as a target of significant opportunity and focus for the WCMs and
the DOH in the Alaska Region.

VI.2 Coordination with Local Agencies

Strong lines of communication are necessary between the NWS,
local agencies, and the media. In Alaska, these agencies are
borough and city emergency management agencies and law
enforcement departments. These local agencies are often the
first to either observe hazardous weather or flooding events or
to receive reports from the public. The NWS receipt of these on-
site reports provides "ground truth" which can verify previous
warnings or be the basis for the issuance of new warnings.

Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-1

On the other hand, local agencies must receive hazardous weather
and flood forecasts and warnings consistently from the NWS in
order to respond to the events. It is important that information
flows freely in both directions between the NWS and these
agencies.

Local authorities were aware of reports of heavy rain and of
flooding conditions in some areas, but did not provide the
reports to the NWS.

Several means of communication are used to distribute the NWS
hazardous weather and flooding information. NWS watches,
warnings and statements are transmitted over NOAA Weather Radio
(NWR) and NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS), and can be
transmitted by telephone with facsimile or voice. However, the
telephone is considered to be the least efficient and the least
preferred of these methods because only one person or agency can
be contacted at a time.

It was the understanding of the NWS that NWS flood watches,
warnings, and statements were re-transmitted to affected agencies
and relevant media by ADES upon notification. The affected
community and associated media would receive watches, warnings
and statements from ADES. It was learned after the flood that it
is not ADES policy to re-trarismit NWS products except those
pertaining to spring breakup and tsunami products. Thus, some
communities needed to rely on regional and statewide radio/TV
media for flood information.

The news media generally broadcasted the flood watches and
warnings in a timely manner. In fact, many of the residents
interviewed were aware that a flood watch was in effect for their
local area prior to the onset of the flooding. These residents
stated that they received the watch through television and
commercial radio, but were not inclined to take any immediate
action.

VI.3 organization and Training of Spotter Groups

Spotter groups organized to collect hazardous weather, rainfall,
and high stream level observations can provide "ground truth"
information during events and can also serve as a source of vital
information for local short-fuse community action.

The RFC has a network of stream water level observers in Alaska.
However, few of the observers were located in the headwater

Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-2

areas, which experienced the greatest precipitation. Moreover,
as many as half of the observers did not have rain gauges.

River observer training has been conducted by sending instruction
sheets to each observer and by conducting on-site training
sessions.

VIA Identification of Areas Vulnerable to Floodin

Although flood warnings from the NWS were issued for all flooded
areas, many people did not react to the warnings due to the lack
of knowledge of the immediate threat to life and property.
Specific information needs to be disseminated to the public to
identify the location and magnitude of flood problems along the
river.

VI.5 Public Education Proar

The NWS conducts a public education program concerning weather
and flooding hazards. However, emphasis in public education
awareness in recent years has not been directed toward flooding
safety.

VI.6 Emergency Services Relationshi-ps

Routine interagency activities among the emergency services
agencies, the forecast offices, and the RFC are essential in
developing smooth coordination and efficient information flow
during hazardous events. The agencies need to know the NWS's
hazardous event operating procedures. Similarly, the NWS
operating facilities need to know the emergency services
agencies, operating procedures.

Two-way information flow is essential during the hazardous events
to exchange information concerning the event. Information flow
when hazardous events are not occurring is just as essential but
takes a different form. There should be continuous and routine
interaction between the forecast offices, the RFC, and the
emergency services agencies to develop a close working
relationship and understanding of the other's procedures.

This flood event makes it clear both the hazardous event and the
routine activities between the NWS and the emergency service

Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-3

agencies need significant improvement. For example, the ADES
organizes emergency event exercises to drill the state's
emergency response services. These include earthquakes and
hazardous releases. The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC)
participates in the earthquake exercises and its warning system
has benefited. The WCMs and the RFC should work with the ADES to
design and drill the emergency response associated with major
hazardous weather and flood events.

During the flood event survey activities, the survey team met
several times with the ADES and borough emergency services staff.
These meetings were extremely valuable in developing an
understanding of each others procedures and operations as well as
for comparing and sharing lessons from the flood event.

Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-4

Chapter VII

Warning Services

VII.1 Introduction

This chapter presents a summary of the warning services provided
by the NWS during the September flooding. A detailed chronology
of the events and NWS actions is provided in Appendix I.
Products issued by the NWS are also provided in Appendix I.

There were no fatalities attributed to this flood. There were no
serious injuries reported as a result of the flooding. The
impact of the flood was extensive damage to public and private
property.

VII.2 WSPO and RFC Operations Suipiport Environment

The environment in which the forecasters and hydrologists were
working during the flood impacted the services provided.
Included in the environmental factors are the office space,
computer systems, data acquisition, and communications systems.

VII.2.1 WSFO/RFC Facility

The WSFO and RFC moved into a new building during the second week
in September, just shortly before the flood event began.
Forecasters and hydrologists were in new surroundings and had new
supporting equipment such as telephones, fax machines, and
printers. Some routine supplies were unavailable or took the
staff longer to locate. The unfamiliarity of the operations
staff with the new office and its organization was likely the
cause of some delays and occupied forecaster time. This will be
remedied as forecasters gain familiarity with their new
surroundings.

VII.2.2 System Environment

The WSFO and RFC have been working in a Unix operating system
based workstation and network environment, known as the ARONET,
for several years. A Prime mini-computer, which had been the
basic computer support system since the early 1980s, was also in
the network. The Prime had served as the sole applications and
database support system until the introduction of the ARONET
beginning in 1993. At the time of the flood, the Alaska Region
was nearing the end of a muiti-year project to migrate all
support systems off the Prime computer completely. Some key

Warning Services: Chapter VII-1

support features, however, still remained on the Prime during the
flood event.

Precipitation data were being decoded and accessible only through
the non-Prime database. The data processing software had not yet
been perfected which created errors in the decoding and the
transfer of the data. Some storm precipitation data had to be
manually decoded which slowed down the process. Other key
meteorological parameters at certain sites were displayed on the
new workstations in ways which the operations staff were
unfamiliar. The result of these inefficiencies during the
flooding further limited the amount of data easily available to
operations.

VII.2.3 Data Accruisition

Chapter IV presented the hydrologic perspective of the
precipitation and river gauge network in the flooded area. That
chapter pointed out the real-time sparsity of precipitation and
river gauge measurements. There are, however, precipitation
gauge data from a large number of sites that are not available in
real-time. Most of the non-real-time sites send in written
reports at the end of each month, while many private and other
government agencies do not provide the data to the National
Weather Service at all. These non-real-time precipitation
reporting sites need to be brought into the real-time data
collection system to support the entire hydrometeorological
operation. The increased density of gauges could improve the
quality of flooding forecasts and the forecasts of meteorological
hazards.

VII.2.4 Svotter Informatio

Spotters are people who voluntarily report both routine and
significant weather events to the WSFO. Their reports supplement
existing observations and often provide critical information
during hazardous weather and flooding events. Routine and
significant river information can be reported to the RFC by
spotters who also can observe river conditions. In addition to
volunteer spotters, paid observers often report significant
events over and above their routine responsibilities.

The spotter network supporting the WSFO Anchorage is extremely
limited. Other than a handful of significant event reports from
observers, it is generally dependent upon spontaneous reports
from the public.

The responsibilities of the riew WCM at the Anchorage WSFO include

warning Services: Chapter VII-2

developing the spotter network. This flooding event can serve as
a springboard to build and maintain an improved network.

There is another source of significant event reports that was
unavailable to the WSFO and RFC operations staff during the
flood. Following the flood, the ADES provided the Flood Report
group with a copy of their Flood-Incident Log (Appendix IV).
This Log is part of the ADES' new emergency services information
systems described later in Chapter VIII (Dissemination). On
scene reports of flooding and heavy rain reaching the ADES'
Emergency Operations Center were routinely included in the Log.
Very little of these potentially valuable real-time reports
reached the WSFO/RFC operations except perhaps through verbal
remarks during discussions between the RFC and the ADES staff.

VII.2.5 Communications

The communications systems influenced the warning services in
three ways: (1) telephone communications failure, (2) inter-
office communication, and (3) communication with the public:

(1) Telephone communication failure: All telephones in the new
forecast office were inoperable for a critical period of about 2-
3 hours on the morning of September 21. A hydrologist had to
drive to his home nearby to report the outage to the telephone
company. The outage prevented the verbal flow of information
into and out of the WSFO and the RFC during a hazardous event.

(2) Inter-office communication: The WSFO communicates
meteorological information and qualitative precipitation
forecasts, when included, to the RFC through the Anchorage
Forecast Discussion (see Appendix I). Operational interaction
between the WSFO and the RFC staff is informal and left to the
initiative of the staff. During this flood event, the
hydrologist or the hydrometeorological analysis and support (HAS)
forecaster on duty at the RFC would periodically consult with
the WSFO lead forecasters to determine the latest meteorological
picture.

(3) Communication with the public: There was an extremely high
number of telephone calls from the public for information during
the flooding. More than 1000 calls per day came into the WSFO
and RFC during the busiest period between September 21 - 23.
There were frequent periods when all available staff in the RFC,
including the Regional Hydrologist and the secretary, were on the
telephone at the same time. During these periods, the staff were
unable to accomplish their hydrologic analyses and forecast
product preparation operations. Incoming telephone calls were a

Warning Services: Chapter VII-3

significant impact on the warning and forecast services during
the flooding.

A high volume of telephone calls is not surprising during such a
major event. However, this may reflect on a larger dissemination
problem. Following sections and chapters document the flood
information products issued by the RFC and the WSFO. There was
plenty of information, but there may have been difficulties in
getting the information to the public. This is discussed in the
next chapter on dissemination.

VII.3 WSFO and RFC LToint Operations

The current Regional Operations Manual Letter (A-08-92) assigns
hydrologic responsibilities for issuing Flood/Flash Flood Watch
and Warning products for the WSFO Anchorage hydrologic services
area (HSA) to the RFC when the RFC is in operation.

Because the RFC has had the responsibility over the years, staff
at the WSFO Anchorage are not routinely involved in and have
limited knowledge about the hydrologic warning program.
During the evening and nighttime hours when the RFC is not
normally operating, the WSFO is responsible for issuing
hydrologic products. WSFO forecasters can call the hydrologic
forecaster at home to discuss flood threats during these hours.
In most of these cases, the hydrologic forecaster issues the
flood product. On other occasions, guidance is given to the WSFO
forecaster who then issues the product.

A new Service Hydrologist position was filled at the Anchorage
WSFO in mid-1994 as a part of the NWS modernization. The Service-
Hydrologist is responsible for developing and maintaining
hydrologic operations at the WSFO by (1) training WSFO
forecasters in hydrologic operations, (2) developing and
maintaining a hydrologic observing network and the flow of data
from the network into the WSPO, and (3) developing and
maintaining the WSFO hydrologic service program. The Service
Hydrologist had completed most of the training required for the
position at the time of the flood and was just starting to have
an impact on the WSFO hydrologic operations.

The precipitation forecast information provided to the RFC by the
WSFO was through (1) the Forecast Discussion,.which was
qualitative, and (2) through discussions between the WSFO lead
forecaster and the RFC staff. The latter was generally a review
of the precipitation forecasts from the NMC models and a
recommendation by the lead forecasters as to which was the best
model QPF. The NMC models and model QPFs available during the

Warning Services: Chapter VII-4

flood were:

0 Aviation in 12 hour intervals out to 72 hours,

0 Medium fine range in 24 hour intervals out to 240 hours,

0 eta (80km) in 6 hour intervals out to 48 hours,

0 Nested grid model in 12 hour intervals out to 48 hours,

0 Limited fine mesh in 12 hour intervals out to 48 hours.

None of these models sufficiently resolve the south central
Alaska orography to provide useful QPF guidance. The
precipitation pattern generating the flood was dictated by the
orography as was shown in Chapter V. The new 48km eta, which
resolves the orography much better, was not available to
operations in Alaska at the time of the flood. Products from the
48km eta model will be available to forecasters beginning mid-
1996.

A formal QPF program to support the RFC had not been implemented
in the Alaska Region at the time of the flood. Planning for such
a program had already begun in August 1995 at a meeting involving
the Alaska Region SOOs and Regional staff. The program is
planned for operational implementation in 1996.

The SOO is another new position at each WSFO resulting from the
NWS modernization. The SOO is responsible for staff training and
introducing new science, technology, and applications into
operations. They focus on keeping the staff scientifically up to
date on the latest developments in operational forecast
methodologies and will be important in the development of a QPF
program.

VII.4 RFC Warning Servicos

During the flood event, the RFC increased their hours of
operations from 10 hours to 17 hours a day. The RFC staff
prepared and transmitted public release hydrologic products,
faxed products to ADES and other selected agencies, and
communicated with ADES by telephone.

The products issued by the RFC are provided in Appendix I. The
three main criteria for evaluating the warning service during
this flood event are: (1) the timeliness of the products, (2) the
content of the products, and (3) the dissemination of the
products.

Warning Services: Chapter VII-5

VII.4.1 Product: Timeliness

The timeliness of the products is summarized in Table 3. The
table lists product lead time, defined here as the time between
the first issuance of a product alerting of high water potential
and the time when flooding was first reported. The use of the
time when flooding was first reported is made necessary due to
the sparsity of information on when flooding actually began in
many of the flooded areas. Of the nine areas listed in the
table, real-time stage data were available in only five areas.
Of those five areas, two areas had flooding on streams other than
the gauged streams. Thus, only three of the flooded areas had
real-time stage data that were indicators of the flooding in the
area. These three areas are the Seward area, Kenai River, and
western Susitna basin.

Table 3. Listing of Product lead times for flooded areas

Initial Notification Flooding Hours of
Location Type Issuance Date/Time Start Date/Time Lead Time

*Seward Area Watch 09/19 04:00 PM 09/20 08:00 AM 16
Girdwood Area Warning 09/20 12:40 PM 09/20 12:40 PM 0
*Chugach Streams Statement 09/20 08:30 PM 09/21 11:30 AM 15
*Kenai River Watch 09/20 03:15 PM 09/21 08:30 AM 17.25
*Western Susitna Basin Watch 09/21 10:30 AM 09/21 02:00 PM 3.5
Valdez Area Warning 09/21 12:30 PM 09/21 12:30 PM 0
Knik River Watch 09/21 03:00 PM 09/22 11:00 AM 20
Cordova Area Warning 09/21 05:00 PM 09/21 05:00 PM 0
*Tonsina Area Watch 09/22 11:00 AM 09/22 11:00 AM 0

* indicates areas with real-time stage data

The product lead times range from 0 hours to over 17 hours. The
areas with 0 hour lead time are areas containing no real-time
stream gauges except for the Tonsina area, where a gauge on the
Tonsina River is read daily. Flooding in that area was minor
along a tributary to the Tonsina River., no flooding along the
Tonsina River was reported. The areas of greatest impact at
Seward and along the Kenai River had 16 hours or more of lead
time.

Another limitation in documenting the details of flooding in
data-sparse areas was when significant damage occurred on streams
due to debris flows rather than water inundation. The bridge
failure on Hunter Creek was attributed to debris accumulating on
the bridge pier that caused erosive velocities to damage the
approaches, which led to loss of the bridge. Hunter Creek was
reported to have remained in its banks throughout the event.
Other Knik River tributaries caused road closures due to debris
that clogged the channel and spread over the road. Criteria need
to be developed to identify the potential for debris threats in

Warning Services: Chapter VII-6

high intensity rainfall events.

Vii.4.2 Product: Information Content

The content of the watch and warning products was appropriate for
the data-sparse areas affected by the flooding. During post flood
interviews, a common complaint of those impacted by the flood
centered around "lack of information." Forecast staff in both
the RFC and WSFO telefaxed and phoned information to EOCs, river
observers and callers. Many of those directly impacted by the
flood, however, were without specifics on "how much higher the
water was going to get," "when the rain would end," etc.

The products for the areas with no real-time river gauges to
provide a reference were by necessity somewhat vague on the
details of the water levels, but they contained reasonable
information on the rainfall timing and qualitative amount. The
products for areas with real-time stream gauges specified the
reported stages and the estimated time of crest. These products
were not specific on the crest stage forecast except during the
latter portion of the flooding on the Kenai River. Stage
forecasts then were provided for the next 24 hours at the three
gauge locations along the Kenai River.

The lack of specifics is due to the sparsity of precipitation
data in the headwaters of the flooding streams, which minimized
the capability to quantify the runoff volumes, and the large
ungauged tributary streams in the drainage basin contributing
unknown amounts of flow. Additional rain and stream gauges
combined with increased use of radar and other remote sensing
techniques should increase the information for making more
specific forecasts in future events.

Another concern expressed by some residents in flooded areas was
that they had never been in a flood before and did not know what
to expect. They indicated that potential impacts such as
contamination of wells, overtopping of septic systems, or
possible erosion of inundated roads should be stated to give them
guidance on actions that they should take in such an event. The
RFC had been directed only weeks before the flood to remove the
call to action statements from all products and thus did not
include any guidance statements in the products.

During post event interviews, emergency management officials and
residents in the flooded areas agreed that "call to action"
statements are valuable as long as they are relevant to events
taking place. Action statement content can be coordinated
between the operations staff and the emergency services agencies

Warning Services: Chapter VII-7

to make them more effective. The coordination can be done as a
preparedness activity before events or during events as long as
there is sufficient time.

VII.5 WSFO Warning Services

The WSFO products included flood watch and warning information in
forecasts and special statements. No flood watches or warnings
were issued by the WSFO during the hours when the RFC was not in
operation. The WSFO provided updates to the RFC on the
meteorological conditions, kept the NOAA Weather Radio up to
date, and answered telephone calls from the public.

The new Service Hydrologist had in the summer of 1995 included a
list of the precipitation gauge identifiers specific to the RFC
precipitation gauge network in the WSFO Hydrology Manual. There
had been insufficient opportunity for the WSFO staff to become
familiar with the new identifiers. This event has already
improved the familiarity. Routine hydrology drills and periodic
operations manual reviews will re-enforce the familiarity.

Mudslides along the steep Alaskan terrain often occur in heavy
rain events. RFC hydrologists identified this potential on
Kodiak Island during the rainstorm on the previous weekend and
during this storm and worked with the Anchorage forecasters to
include mention of mudslides in special weather statements.
There is no formal mudslide watch or warning statement that is
issued by the Weather Service. These and avalanche warnings are
understood to be the responsibility of the State Department of
Public Safety.

In the spirit of all-hazard response partnerships, the NWS should
cooperate with the State Department of Public Safety and include
mudslide threat information in heavy precipitation and flood
products as a result of the coordination.

Warning Services: Chapter VII-8

Chapter VIII

Dissemination

VIII.1 Introduction

The NWS Alaska Region flood response assessment team met with
emergency services groups following the flood event. The team
discussed with these groups the dissemination of NWS products to
the ADES, the emergency services in the Boroughs and EOCs, and to
residents in south central Alaska. The team also discussed the
flow of information back to the NWS.

VIII.2 Flood Area Demographics

Local demographics have to be considered everywhere the NWS
provides services. Services need to account for climate
characteristics, weather and water sensitivities, geography,
population demographics, political organization, commerce,
transportation, and communications infrastructure.

Alaska is politically organized into Boroughs, although the state
is not completely covered by Boroughs. Non-Borough areas are
Federal government land areas, i.e., Bureau of Land Management,
Fish and Wildlife Refuge, National Forest, which are quite
extensive and are very sparsely settled.

The Boroughs each have an emergency services unit. The two
Boroughs most significantly impacted by this flood event were the
Kenai Peninsula (pop. 45,000) and the Matanuska-Susitna (pop.
45,000). The population in these Boroughs is not at all
remarkable in numbers relative to our fellow states. For Alaska,
though, these are concentrations of a relatively large
population.

NWS public services are provided in zone and local forecast
areas. Zones are not aligned with the Boroughs, as some zones
and counties are in other Regions. The zones are fit to the
climatology as much as possible, are quite large, and have very
sparse population. The local forecasts serve the population
centers. For example in the flood impacted areas, local
forecasts are prepared for Seward, Kenai, Homer, Valdez, Willow,
Talkeetna, Palmer, and Cordova. A large part of the Matanuska-
Susitna Borough is currently not within a zone or served by local
forecasts, simply because the population is so sparse. The RFC
has stated a requirement for a Susitna basin zone forecast within

Dissemination: Chapter VIII-1

the past year.

Specific characteristics:

Kenai Peninsula Boroua

The two population centers impacted by the flood in the Kenai
Peninsula Borough were Seward (pop. 3,000) and Kenai/Soldotna
(pop. 10,000). These two centers are part of the Kenai Peninsula
Borough which has a total population of 44,411. Homer (pop.
4,300) is the other major population center in the Borough. This
means roughly 30,000 residents are scattered outside these three
cities.

Seward and Homer are served by NWR transmitters operated by one
of the two NWR consoles at the Anchorage WSFO. These locations
for the NWR transmitters were based on the intent to support the
maximum number of marine customers. Kenai, while it is on the
Cook Inlet to the Gulf of Alaska, has only a very small salt
water marine customer base compared to Seward and Homer.

There are 4 AM/FM radio stations in Seward and 10 in
Kenai/Soldotna. Cable television is the primary method for
access to television programming. The Rural Area Television
Network (RATNET), which is operated by the state, is also
available.

The Kenai/Soldotna population has soared, by Alaskan standards,
in recent years in response to year-round recreation and commerce
growth. The Kenai salmon fishery is world famous and the living
environment has been discovered as desirable which has attracted
many new residents. This growth will continue.

Matanuska-Susitna Boroua

The major population centers in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough
(pop. 45,000) are Palmer (pop. 3,500) and Wasilla (pop. 4,000).
Just as in the Kenai Peninsula Borough, most of the population
(37,500) is not concentrated in cities. The Borough population
numbers are on a slow upswing. Palmer and Wasilla are regarded
as Anchorage commuting centers, both roughly 65 miles from
Anchorage mostly along a limited access highway.

There are no NWR transmitters which reliably reach the residents
in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The Anchorage transmitter,
located in downtown Anchorage, provides only fringe reception in
the southernmost sections of the Borough.

Dissemination: Chapter VIII-2

Most of Anchorage's 21 AM/FM radio stations reach Wasilla and
Palmer. Television is generally received over cable.

Valdez/Cordova Boroucth

Valdez (pop. 4,000) and Cordova (pop. 2,500) are both marine
communities embedded along the coastal mountains surrounding the
famous Prince William Sound. Valdez is well-known as the
terminus of the Alaska oil pipeline, an oil tanker embarkation
port, and is usually the recipient of more than 600 inches of
snow every year. Cordova is a fishing village that
climatologically receives large amounts of rain (173.36
inches/year in town, 91.05 inches/year 20 miles east at the FAA
airport site).

The Weather Service Office (WSO) at Valdez provides the NWR
service which is broadcast over transmitters in each city.
Again, it is primarily the marine customer who is the target of
the NWR.

VIII.3 Dissemination in Alaska

The NWWS in Alaska has three subscribers: (1) the NWS subsidized
service to the ADES, (2) the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) outlet at
the 17th District Headquarters in Juneau, and (3) the Associated
Press (AP). The AP service is the primary source of NWS products
for the broadcast and print media. Weather products can be
"bumped" on the AP service by higher priority news, such as
election results.

The dissemination of routine weather information to most of south
central Alaska residents is accomplished primarily by a
combination of commercial radio, television and newspaper media.
However, commercial radio stations in smaller communities are
generally not staffed 24 hours a day. Television is limited to
one pre-programmed channel in some areas. This was the case
during the flood event.

The Alaska Weather Line (AWL) was established by the Alaska
Region in May 1995. The AWL is a toll free telephone weather
information service available throughout Alaska. NWS WSOs record
weather information on the AWL, including general public
forecasts, marine weather forecasts, watches, warnings, and more.
Alaskan residents can call 1-800-472-0391 at any time to get the
latest weather information for many areas in the state. Weather
information for south central Alaska, including RFC information,
is not yet available on the AWL.

Dissemination: Chapter VIII-3

VIII.4 Dissemination during the Flood Event

The two primary customers for NWS products during the flood were
(1) the general public, and (2) the emergency services agencies.
The products issued by the WSFO/RFC and disseminated to the two
customers may be the same, but the weather and flood information
requirements are different for each of the customers. The
dissemination issues during the flood for each of the two
customers are described.

VIII.4.1 Dissemination to the Public

Interviews with emergency management staff in the boroughs and
with local residents indicated that weather and flood forecast
information was very limited overall. Residents in the
Kenai/Soldotna area, the Matanuska/Susitna valley, and Girdwood
are out of range of existing NWR broadcasts. Bits and pieces of
weather information were picked up from commercial radio and
television stations, word of mouth, and mostly by simply watching
flood conditions and reacting to them. They did not know what to
expect next, nor how long existing conditions were expected to
last.

Due to the remoteness of several of the affected locations,
notification was accomplished by some residents going door to
door to pass along limited information. In the spirit of living
in Alaska, they fended for themselves.

Commercial radio station hours of operation are limited in many
of the flooded areas. Few, if any, of the stations are staffed
24 hours a day. During the flooding event, staffing hours were
increased, but few, if any, stations went to a full 24 hour
operation. They relied upon the AP service or phone calls to and
from an emergency management agency tc;'receive weather
information for broadcast. Most residents know that their local
radio station(s) are not staffed 24 hours a day.

Television, whether received over cable or via antenna, was not a
good source of NWS flood information. While there was television
media attention paid to the impact of the floods, there was
virtually no distribution of NWS products over television.

This was not an Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) event.
Therefore, no television or radio broadcast was interrupted by
EBS. It may not have even mattered. As an example, the flooded
Kenai Keys community along the Kenai River has few full-time
residents. The Keys is mostly recreation homes. The people in

Dissemination: Chapter VIII-4

residence in the Keys or who had homes in the Keys, but were not
staying there, did not "hear" NWS products. Few of the Keys
residents who were staying in the Keys routinely listen to the
radio or television. Some residents have marine VHF radios *
Dissemination of products to such hard to reach customers is a
challenging task.

Access to flood information via telephone was not easy. The
demand far exceeded the capability to deliver the information.
The AWL with its wide area, toll free access to fresh weather
product recordings did not include south central Alaska products
at the time of the flood.

VIII.4.2 Dissemination to the Emercrency Service Offices

NWS products, including flood watches, warnings, and statements
issued by WSFO Anchorage and the RFC, are distributed directly to
the ADES EOC on Ft. Richardson via the NWWS. The ADES does not
automatically process the products received from the NWS over the
NWWS. The ADES staff transfer the products onto the new
Emergency Services Information System (ESIS) the ADES is starting
to implement. The transfer is accomplished through a manual
search of the products for significant weather information, such
as advisories, watches, warnings, or statements. Once located,
they "copy/paste" the selected information into the ESIS. The
ADES staff did not have a comprehensive knowledge of NWS product
headers and contents.

The ESIS is based on "First Class" electronic mail software. The
system is a dial-in communications link between the ADES EOC on
Ft. Richardson and the Anchorage Emergency Service Office, and
the Kenai and Mat-Su Boroughs. This was in place during the
flood. Since the flood, the ADES has added many fire stations
onto the system. The fire stations in the smaller communities,
like Girdwood, serve as EOCs during emergency events such as the
flood.

The NWS announces only watches and warnings over the National
Warning Service (NAWAS). These are received at some emergency
management borough offices or their dispatch centers depending on
the time of day. NWS statements, issued at least every six hours
when watches and/or warnings are in effect, are not announced.

EOCs activated in smaller communities like Girdwood during this
flood event were not linked to NAWAS. Dissemination from the
ADES to local authorities in these samller communities during the
flood was by telephone and telefax. NWS products were
subsequently passed on to local agencies and residents via

Dissemination: Chapter VIII-5

telephone fan-out and telephone fax.
v

Emergency management staff relied upon information from field
reports from residents, agencies, and work crews as to what was
happening in the flooded areas. Some of this information was
included in the ESIS information database.

Dissemination: Chapter VIII-6

Appendix I

Operations Chronology of Events

The chronology of operations events and excerpts from RFC/WSFO
products begins on September 12 and ends October 2, 1995. Time
is in Alaska Daylight time, which is UTC-8 hours:

Tuesday, September 12

WSFO Anchorage Ice Forecaster Russ Page mentions to KTUU Channel 2 Weathercaster Jackie
Purcell, "It will take about 9 days for the effects of Typhoon "Oscar" to reach south
central Alaska."

Thursday, September 14

0800 At the end of the midnight shift, Meteorologist-in-Charge Robert Hopkins and Lead
Forecaster Joel Curtis discussed the potential for heavy rains in south central Alaska.

Friday, September 15

0800 Lead Forecaster Joel Curtis on midnight shift mentions heavy rains expected across areas
near Prince William Sound in State Forecast Discussion (FPAK20 PANC). He also uses
satellite loops from the Japanese GMS to identify moisture feed around ex-typhoon "Oscar."

1600 RFC issues Bradley Lake Hydroelectric Project product to Homer Electric refering to "heavy
rain possible toward the middle of next week."

Saturday, Septembe@ 16

0311 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "UPR LVL MSTR STRM FROM TYPHOON OSCAR MOVG
TWDS THIS LOW ... W/PLOW ALF BCMG SE OVR MOST OF FCST AREA. BERING SEA LOW BCMS UPR TROF A
LTTL FURTER W & AN UPR LOW CNTR ESTABLSHD ABT 400 NM S OF ADQ. GOTTA ACCPT THIS CAUSE
ANALYSES..TREND..& SATL PIX ALL SUPPORT THIS IDEA. ... LONGR TERM: MRF INSISTS THAT UPR
LOW WELL S OF ADQ WILL MOV INTO BERING BY THU W/STG SSE JETSTRM DVLPG OVR CNTRL & ERN FCST
AREA FOR HVY RAIN."

1500 RFC issues Hydro-meteorological Discussion (HMD) indicating tropical moisture expected to
impact Alaska beginning Monday. Excerpts:

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

300 PM SEPT 16 1995

WET SOILS IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM TYPHOON OSCAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALASKA BEGINNING MONDAY. (16/1700)

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF ALASKA IS KEEPING MOST OF THE STATE
RELATIVELY DRY THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ON KODIAK ISLAND, WITH AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES ACCUMULATING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RECENT RAINFALL IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS SATURATED SOILS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL THUS CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAN WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED.

FREEZING LEVELS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA RANGE FROM ABOUT 6000 FT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS TO 12000 FT
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS, WITH SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. FREEZING LEVELS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ARE ABOUT 6000 TO 9000 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FREEZING LEVELS IN INTERIOR ALASKA RANGE FROM ABOUT 6000 FT IN WESTERN SECTIONS To 2000 FT IN

Appendix I-1

EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 4000 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN MOST
AREAS. NORTH SLOPE FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 8000 FT BY SUNDAY. (16/1700)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS ...
RIVER AND STREAMS BEGAN TO FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM THEIR HIGH LEVELS EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, BUT LEVELS REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE AREA, THEREFORE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. (16/2200)

WEST
SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NOW FALLING AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND GLACIAL CONTRIBUTIONS DIMINISH.
MOST STREAMS SHOULD EXPERIENCE FALLING TO STEADY LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (16/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS IN THE SEWARD AREA WERE FALLING SATURDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. (16/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN THE LOWER COPPER RIVER BASIN DID NOT OCCUR AND LEVELS ARE DROPPING ON MOST
STREAMS IN THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ON STREAMS THAT GET MOST OF THEIR FLOW FROM GLACIAL MELT. THIS
IS A RESULT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. (16/2200)

SDL/LAR

1600 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "INHOUSE COMMUNICATIONS/COMPUTER PROBLEMS
STILL EXIST. THERE MAY BE SOME DELAY ON IN-HOUSE GENERATED PRODUCTS..

Sunday, September 17

0253 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "...ETA AND NGM FAIRLY CLOSE AGRMNT IN BOTH
MASS FIELD AND MOISTURE FCS BOTH MDLS SHOW GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FOR KODIAK ISL SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MASS MOVING OVR ISLAND SUN NGT AND MON AS FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES SLOLY EWD. LOOKS
LIKE GOOD SHOT OF RAIN FOR SEWARD AND UPSLOPE AREAS KENAI PEN MON AND MON NGT AS MOIST..
QSTNRY SELY FLOW BCMS ESTABLISHED OVR THE WESTERN N GLF CST.-

1133 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts; "AVN LOOKS TO BE BETTER OF THE FIELD MDLS.
RIDGE OVR CANADA CONTS SE DRIFT NR 36 HRS. 986 MB LOW S OF THE AK PEN MOVS TO CTUST N OF
THE PRIBILOFS BY 4 PM MON WITH A CNTRL PRES IN THE LOW 9801S. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
OCSAR MOVS TO NR 50N 160W WITH A CNTRL PRES IN THE LOW 9601S 4 AM WED. IN THE NEAR
TERM..BRISK E-SE WNDS Wlr.L WORK INTO THE NRN GLFAK..S CNTRL AK THRU TDY. BRISK WINDS OVR
BRISTOL BAY/SW AK WILL INTENSIFY THIS THRU TNGT AS LOW PUSHES N OF AK PEN. WNDS ADO WILL
DMSHG THIS EVE. RA SHOULD DMSH OVR ADO LTR THIS AFTN AS OCFNT PUSHES N. RA SHOULD SPREAD
TO S CNTRL AK/N GLFAK THIS EVE/TNGT AND CONT THRU MON.

.ADQ..RA SHOULD DMSH IN INTENSITY LTR THIS AFTN. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THRU THIS
AFTN. I WILL CALL YOU ON MUD SLIDE POTENTIAL."

1453 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Disccusion excerpts: "NEXT WK WV OVR THE NE PAC MOVS TO THE NRN
GLFAK TUE. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON OCSAR MOVS TO NR 5ON 160W WITH A CNTRL PRES IN THE LOW
9601S 4 AM WED. BRISK E-SE WNDS WILL WORK INTO THE NRN GLFAK..S CNTRL AX THRU TNGT. AS
EXPECTED..THE N GLFAK CST AND WNDWARD EXPOSURES OF S CNTRL AK SHOULD CATCH MOST OF THE
PCPN..STRONG DOWNSLOPING WNDS SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE MINIMAL PCPN OVR VALLEY SECTIONS OF
SCNTRAL AK TNGT AND MON. CONT SE FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WITH CONT THE THREAT OF RA
ALG THE N GLFAK CST THRU TUE.

.ADQ..LKS LIKE HVR RA OVR..SHWRS MON..BUT WK WV SE OF MAIN CNTR MOVS N AND PRODUCES E-SE
FLOW MON NGT/TNGT.

.VWS..RA DVLPG AFT MDNGT AND CONTG MON. 850-700 MB LOW CONTS SE THRU TUE..SOOO THREAT OF
PCPN CONTS."

1500 The HMD Flood Potential discussion expects heavy rain for Monday in the Western Gulf of
Alaska that may persist for several days and may cause flooding in Seward.

2125 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "FORMER TYPHOON OSCAR WILL S OF KAMCHATKA PEN
WILL BE AST 300 S ADK MON AFTN AND ABT 450 S CDB AS A 966 MB BY TUE AFTN. 1010 MB LOW NR
37N AND 152W WILL GRADLY MOV UP E SIDE OF FORMER TYPHOON TO BE A 982 MB LOW 250 SE ADQ BY
TUE AFTN. WND AND RA MOVG BACK INTO KODIAK ISL TUE."

Appendix I-2

Rain Sunday night and Monday in the Seward through Girdwood area is not heavy, but it sets
up a wet antecedent condition going into the big event.

Monday, September 18

0321 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "HI AMP UPR AIR PTRN CONTG AS BLKG RDG CONTS
TO BLD FM ERN PAC NWD THRU NW CANADA..RSLTG IN STG WRM ADVCTN NWD ACRS WRM GLF AK INTO SRN
AND SWRN AK..PDS HVY RA..SPCLY SRN EXPSRS..STG WNDS AND ABV NRML TMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS. AT
SFC NOT MUCH DIFF IN MODELS ON HNLDG LOW MVG NWWD FM AK PEN INTO ME BERING SEA THRU 36 HRS
WITH SLGT DIFF AT 48 HRS ON CNTRL PRES..LCTNS OF OLD TYPHOON OSCAR AND SMALLER LOW DVLPG
AHD OF OLD TYPHOON. WSOIS USE AVN 48 HR SPC PNL. SAT IMGRY SHOWS EXTV MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THIS DVLPG LOW..CNTRD ABT 37N 162W AT 06Z TUE..AND THIS WILL BE A BIG RA/WND
PRDCR..AS MNTD ABV WILL GO WITH AVN ATTX ON THIS SYS. AT 60 HRS..4AM WED..AVN ROTATES
THIS LOW OVR KODIAK ISL..AT ABT 978MB WITH FNT ONSHR LWR KENAI PEN AND EWD. DRY SLOT VSBL
OVR N-CNTRL GLF FM S SIDE OF KODIAK ISL TO ABT 90 S MDO..SEC BAND MOISTURE APCHG 55N ..SO
RA PRBLY END OR AT LEAST BCM LGT INTNT GLP AX BRDG AREAS BY LATE MRNG THEN DVLPG AGAIN
TNGT..THEN IMPVG A BIT LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE AHD OF NEXT SYS."

Midnight shift Lead forecaster Donald Finch briefs RFC Development and Operations
Hydrologist Larry Rundquist that the 6 - 8 inch QPF by the NMC models was probably
conservative.

1500 The HMD Flood Potential discussion expects heavy rain Tuesday night and Wednesday in
Western Gulf of Alaska that may cause flooding in Seward.

1540 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "OLD OCFNT NOW EXTDG FM XTRM ME GLF AK-JST S
TURNAGAIN ARM-THENCE WWD ARC..CONTG N AND NW DSIPTG NXT 12 HRS. FAIRLY NARROW AREA RA
INVOP FNT..MORE SHWRY W AK RNG AND XPCD BE SO IN COPPER RVR BASIN. ... VIGOROUS 979MB LOW
INVOF 38N 153W NOW BGG TURN NWD..XPCD VERIFY 12Z AVN PROG WELL..THEN TO MR 53N 153W AS
ARND 970MB CNTR OOZ WED WITH SHORT OCFNT NE TO MDT WMPNT IN ARC THRU 55N 150W THENCE ENE
TO 180 S YAK SAME TIME. CDFNT TO LIE IN ARC THRU 53N 145W BY OOZ WED. "BULLS EYE" PRECIP
MOVG TWD E AND SE EXPOSURES KENAI PEN AND KODIAK IS. TUE. WAY OUT W..RMNS "OSCAR- VRY
DFCLT TO SEE ON I.R ... ESTMD ARND 966MBS..180 S AHT CONTG ON EWD TRACK..XPCD LIE MR 48K
166W OOZ WED WITH FNTL SYS IN E AND S ARC."

ADQ 047/W/SE15 054/SR/ENE30G 052/+R/E35 056/+R/E35 WOULD HDLN STG E WND AND RVY RA
AT TIMES LATER TUE/TUE MGT AND WED.

VWS 047/W/LW 058/E6W/LW 047/8R/LW 055/7R/LW LYNN..THANKS FOR CALL ON 2C..AS
USUAL YOU'RE RIGHT ON TOP OF SITUATION. CHC SHWRS TUE MOSTLY FOR MRG..MAY BE AT LEAST
SHORT BREAK IN SYSTEMS TUE. INCOMING WMFNT SO STG..RA XPCTD LATE TUE AND TUE NGT..DESPITE
ERLY WNDS ALF."

2125 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "COMPUTER PRPBLEMS AT NMC HAVE CAUSE MODEL
RUNS TO BE DELAYED. I HAVE GOTTEN ONLY ETA MDL SO FAR AND WILL GO WITH IT.

SYNOPSIS ... STLT PIX SHOWS INTENSE LOW 200 S ADK IS MOVG E AT ABT 40 KTS. SECOND LOW S OF
GLF AK IS MOVG N AT AST 30 KTS. 968 MB LOW S CNTRL AUTNS WILL SLOW DOWN TO BE ABT 300 N14 S
Z11 BY 4PM TUE AND WILL CONT TO NOV E TO 450 NM S-SDP BY 4AM WED. 977 MB LOW OVR NE PAC
WILL NOV TO 300 NM S KODIAK ISL BY 4PM TUE..TO ABT 140 NM S SDP BY 4AM WED AND WILL MERG
WILL MERG WILL OLD ALUTN LOW ABT 300 NM SSE SNP BY 4PM WED. ASSOCD PNT WILL NOV N WITH LOW
TO LIE ACRS AX PEN..SRN BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK IS@, BY TUE EVE. FNT WILL CONT TO NOV NW TO
LIE ACRS ERN ALUTNS..SRN Y-K DELTA..LWR COOK INLET THEN TURN SE INTO CNTRL GLF AK. AND
WILL LIE ACRS NORTON SD KUSKOKWIM VLY AND COOK INLET WED AFTN. WNDS INCRO OVR KODIAK ISL
AND AK PEN LATE MGT AND TUE ARD OF FNT WILL ONLY SLWLY DMSHG BHD FNT. GUSTY WNDS MOVG INTO
COOK INLET..BRISTOL BAY AND Y-K DELTA TUE MGT AND INTO KUSKOKWIM VLY WED. STG WNDS ALG
CNTRL GLF CST INCRG AGN TUE. RA MOVG BACK INTO KODIAK ISL AND AX PEN TUE AND WILL SPRD
INTO COOK INLET.. BRISTOL BAY AND Y-K DELTA TUE MGT. RA OVR CNTRL GLF CST WILL DMSH TO
SHWR TUE MRNG BUT WILL BCM STEADY RA BY LATE TUE. OCNL RA MOVG INTO KUSKOKWIM VLY..SUSITNA
VLY AND COPPER RVR BASIN TUE NGT."

Tuesday, September 19

0312 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Disccusion excerpts: "HI AMP BLCKG PTRN CONTG WITH MRF SHWG SHIFT
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACRS NRN PAC/SRN BERING BY SAT. IMDT FCST PRBqLM IS STG SFC DVLPMNT
APCHG SW GLF AK EARLY THIS MRNG AHD OF OLD TYPHOON OSCAR. LATE 06Z SHIP ABT 90 N OF LOW
SUGGESTS CNTRL PRES PRBLY NR 972MB WHICH IS ALREADY DPR THAN MODEL 12Z PRJTN. 0746Z DMSP
SHOWS CNTR NR 44N 153W AND LEADING EDGE CI TO 55N 150W. THIS MAY BE A BIT AHD OF MODEL
TRACK..ALL IN GNL AGRMNT..BUT DMBLG WITH OLD OSCAR FCST TO BEGIN BY 24 HRS..SO WILL STICK

Appendix 1-3

WITH MODELS ATTM AND GO WITH ETA..SLTLY BETTER ON CNTRL PRES..972MB NR 52N 155W AT OOZ WED
WITH OCLN THRU 53N 150W AND ESE..OLD OSCAR NR 48N 168W AT 960MB. AT 06Z WED..LOW NR 53N
160W..965MB WITH OCLN THRU S SKJ-57H 150W AND ESE..DMBLG CNTR TO 48N 165W..961MB. AT 36
HRS..12Z WED..LOW TO 53N 161W..961MB WITH OCLN THRU S CDB-N ADO AND ESE THRU 60 S MDO. SEC
LOW 48N 161W..965MB. AT 48 HRS--OOZ THU..LOW NR CDB AT 971MB WITH WKNG OCLN THRU N
BET-PWS AND SEWD. OLD OSCAR..968MB NR 51N 158W AT OOZ THU. DRY SLOT VSBL JUST TO N OF CI
EDGE OVR NRN GLF AK..SO SOME IXPRVXNT THIS MRNG THEN HI CLDS MVG OVR KODIAK ISL BY LATE
MRNG AND OVR N GLF CST BY MID AFTN. RA/WND BGNG KODIAK BY EARLY AFTN AND N GLF CST BY
LATE AFTN. RCMD HI WND WRNG THIS APTN/TNGT FOR AD. HVST RA TNGT.. KODIAK ISL/LWR COOK
INLET AND KENAI PEN AND KENAI PEN/PWS WED. SOME HVY RA PSBL W SIDE INLET AND SW SUSITNA
VLY LATE TNGT/WED."

0929 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "HI AMPLTD UPR FLOW TO RSLT IN ACTV WX PTRN
NXT 48 HRS. STG LOW CNTR NR 50N 155W MOVG NNW AND WILL BGN MOVG MR NW AS STGR LOW S OF THE
ERN ALUTNS DRPS SE. MDLS AGREE IN MOVG A 960 MB LOW NR CDB BY WED "TN. CI CLD SELD SPRDG
RPDLY N ACRS SRN Ar, CST. R TO START AT ANY TIME AD AND THE REST OF SRN CSTL AREAS LTR
THIS MRNG OR AFTN. HVY R AD THIS EVE SPRDG TO SRN AND ERN KENAI PEN AS WELL AS PRINCE
WILLAM SOUND ARND MDNGT OR SO CONTG THRU WED. PREFNTL WNDS CONT TO INCR AD WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH PSBL THIS EVE WITH IST FNTL PASSAGE AND AGN WED MRNG WITH SCND WVI. WRM AIR ALF TO
ALLOW HVY RNS TO FALL AT HIGHER ELEVTNS WHICH WILL ADD TO FLDG PTNTL SRN AX CST FM AD TO
CDVI. FCSTS LK GD."

1500 River Forecast Center (RFC) issues Bradley Lake Hydroelectric Project product to Homer
Electric forecasting heavy rain beginning Tuesday evening and continuing at variable
intensities through Thursday with amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. HMD issued at 3
p.m. says, "Rain will likely cause flooding in Seward." Flooding is also possible in
western Susitna basin.

1500 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "NO CHNG FM MRNG SYNOPSIS. TWO INTNS LOWS
DXBLG WITH LOW S OF KODIAK IS MOVG XW TO NR CDB BY WED AFTN..CONTG TO NR ST. MATHEW IS WED
NGT..BCMG STNRY AS A 965 MB LOW THEREAFTR. 957 MB S OF THE ERN ALUTNS MOVG ESE SWINGS NE
ACRS KODIAK IS AS A STG NEG TILT TROF LT WED NGT WITH WNDS PICKING UP AGN ERLY WED EVE.
NVST RAIN AD OCRS THIS EVE THRU WED AFTN. BOTH ETA AND NGM PULL DRY SLOT UP ACRS ISLAND
LATE WED AFTN FOR A DCR IN OR TEMPORY END OF PCPN INTO EVENING BFR STARTG AGN WITH NXT
TROF."

1600 RFC issues Flood Watch for Seward area. RFC begins faxing flood products to the Kenai
Peninsula Borough, Alaska Division of Emergency Services (ADES), Seward Emergency Managers
and the DOT. Faxing to these agencies continues throughout the event.

Forecaster Wanda Likens on evening shift coordinates with the RFC on precipitation
forecasts.

2129 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "NOT MUCH CHG FM PREV DISCS..ALL MODELS IN
AGRMNT AND SMLR TO PREV RUNS. MODELS MOVE 960MB LOW AT 55N/158W TO 60N/175W BY THURS AFTN
WITHOUT MUCH CHG IN INTNSTY. SCND 956MB LOW AT 45N/167W OPENS UP INTO A NEG TILT TROF WED
AFTN WHICH ROTATES OVR AD BY THURS AFTN. RAIN OVR AD AND SRN KENAI PEN SPRDG NWD WITH
RAIN BGNG OVR N GLF CST THIS HOUR. FCSTS LK GD."

Significant wind damage reported from Girdwood.

Wednesday, September 20

0314 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "AT 500MB THE STG BLKG PTRN IS FCST TO CONT
THRU FRI WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHFTD FM 130W-12OW WITH HI AMP NEG TILT TROF FM NRN BERING
ACRS AX PEN AT 72 HRS..4PM FRI. EUROPEAN MDLS CONT TO BE UNAVBL IN AX AND MRF NOT IN AT
PRESENT-BUT SEEMS LIKELY WITH STG WLYS DVLPG OVR KAMCHATKA AND WRN BERING BY 72 HRS THAT
UPR TROF SHD BE KICKED EWD ACRS STATE OVER THE WKEND. IN THE SHORT RUN MODELS CONT TO BE
IN XCLNT AGRMNT. ETA/AVN HAVE MEAN CNTR ABT 4 MB HIGHER THAN NGM AT 24 HRS AND WILL GO
WITH THESE MODELS THRU FCST PD..WSOIS USE AVN PNLS FOR LCTN OF SFC CNTRS THRU 48 HRS.
BOTTOM LINE IS MAIN FNTL 33ACLN ZONE IS UNDER STG SLY TET EXTNDG NWD ACRS KODIAK ISL AT THE
MOMENT AND WILL SHIFT TO LWR COOK INLET/KENAI PEN BY 4PM WED AND TO PWS BY 4AM THU AND TO
ERN N GLF CST BY 4PM THU..GRDLY SHFTG THE HVY..ORGRPHC ENHNCD PCPN EWD. SAT IMGRY SHOWS A
THIRD CRCLN CNTR HAS DVLPD AT THE TRIP PT OF THE FNT ASSOCD WITH OLDVYPHOON OSCAR NR 50N
155W AT 06Z WED. 0734Z DMSP SHOWS THIS CNTR HAS MVD TO NR 50N 153W WITH XTV AREA OF CLSRTD
CUPRM CLDS WITH SMALL EMBBD CBS VSBL..THIS BNDRY SHD MOVE NWD AS CRLCN CNTR MOVES NW TO
MERGE WITH LOW NR AX PEN BY THIS AFTN..XPCT HVY SHWRS KODIAK ISL/AK PEN LATE THIS MRNG AND
THIS AFTN.

ADQ..PNT HAS MVD N OF STN AND WNDS DRPG OFF..HWVR LETS HOLD WND ADVSRY THRU EARLY AFTN AS

Appendix I-4

THEY ARE LIKLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AHD OF NEXT SYS.
AKN ... CONT ADVSRY TIL 8AM..THEN WNDS DMSNG SLOWLY.
VWS ... MTN RA HVY AT TIMES TNGT/THU."

0800 RFC issues Flood Warning for Seward area.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE
SEWARD AREA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
800 AM WED SEPT 20 1995

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPGRADED THE FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIVER AND
STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA. THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER
21.

HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND IN PARKING LOTS. THE RESURRECTION
RIVER ROSE FROM 8.0 FT YESTERDAY MORNING TO 14.0 FT THIS MORNING. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
WITH RAIN DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT FURTHER RISES IN THE WATER LEVELS OF SEWARD AND
VICINITY RIVERS AND STREAMS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SEPT 20 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM WED SEPT 20 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIVER AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4
PM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21. HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND IN
PARKING LOTS. THE RESURRECTION RIVER ROSE FROM 8.0 FT YESTERDAY MORNING TO 15.4 FT LATE THIS
MORNING. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE: EXIT GLACIER ROAD, LOWELL POINT ROAD, AND OLD MILL ROAD.
REPORTS ALSO INDICATE HIGH WATER IN BOX CANYON.

RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH RAINFALL INTENSITY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
FURTHER RISES IN THE WATER LEVELS OF SEWARD AND VICINITY RIVERS AND STREAMS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SEPT 20 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1240 RFC issues Flood Warning for Girdwood.

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

FLOOD WARNING FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM ADT WED SEPT 20 1995

A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY SEPT 21.

HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SEVER FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF GIRDWOOD. WATER FROM GLACIER CREEK AND OTHER
STREAMS IN THE AREA HAVE INUNDATED MANY OF THE ROADS IN TOWN AND THE SCHOOL IS BEING EVACUATED.
HIGH WATER ON GLACIER CREEK IS CAUSING EROSION OF THE BANKS AND THERE IS MUCH DEBRIS
IN THE STREAM. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED SOME MUD AND LAND SLIDES. PRESENTLY THERE IS CONCERN

Appendix 1-5

THAT THE CHAIR 4 TOWER AT ALEYSKA MAY TOPPLE. HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN HAVE ALSO
CAUSED MANY POWER LINES TO BREAK.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY SEPT 20 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ADA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0300 PM ADT WED SEP 20 1995

WET SOILS IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR SEWARD AND SURROUNDING RIVERS THROUGH 4PM THURSDAY. KODIAK HAS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
MUD SLIDE ACTIVITY DUE TO MORE RAIN. THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN IS ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN EVENT. OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE HAVE A LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME. (20/1800)

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM PROGRESSING
EASTWARD, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT RAIN INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST, KODIAK ISLAND AND
KENAI PENINSULA. MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE SEWARD AREA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
MORE THAN AN INCH FELL IN KODIAK. RECENT RAINFALL IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS SATURATED SOILS AND
RAPID RISES ARE NOW BEING EXPERIENCED ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO THE CONTINUED RAIN.

LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL IN THE REST OF THE STATE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. RAIN MAY BEGIN IN THE
NORHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE LATER ON THURSDAY, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
GENERALLY CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. WARM WINDS IN THE INTERIOR ARE HELPING TO DRY SOILS IN THAT AREA.

WARM AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE STATE RAISING FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 9000 FT AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST, SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA. EVEN AT NOME AND BARROW FREEZING LEVELS ARE OVER
6000 FT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS THURSDAY. (20/1800)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE DUE TO SOME MODERATE RAIN IN THE BASIN. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON
THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE REGION. (20/2200)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
RAIN RUNOFF WILL CAUSE THE WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS TO BE ON THE RISE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY. (20/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE SEWARD AREA. THE FLOOD WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. A NUMBER OF ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE INTENSITY TAPPERING OFF TOMORROW. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE TONIGHT ON MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS. WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE AND STATIONS DOWNSTREAM ARE
ALREADY RISING AS 3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. (20/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
WATER LEVELS ARE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING EXCEPT MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE WHICH IS ON
THE RISE. (20/2200)

JMP/ADA

1515 RFC issues Flood Watch for Kenai River.

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KENAI RIVER AND OTHER RIVERS IN THE KENAI RIVER
BASIN.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

Appendix 1-6

315 PM ADT WED SEPT 20 1995

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KENAI RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN
THE KENAI BASIN. THIS WATCHWILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21.

APPROXIMATELY 3.0+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE UPPER KENAI RIVER BASIN SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING HAS RISEN1.0 FT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND 0.4 FT AT KENAI
KEYS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. WITH MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BANKFULL CONDITIONS ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE KENAI RIVER. LOW
LYING AREAS COULD ALSO BE INUNDATED AS HIGH WATER OVERFLOWS AND ERODES RIVER BANKS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 AM THURSDAY SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM ADT WED SEPT 20 1995

A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY SEPT 21.

HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF GIRDWOOD. WATER FROM AREA CREEKS INUNDATED ROADS IN
TOWN, BUT WORK CREWS HAVE BUILT UP DIKES AND DIVERTED MUCH OF THE WATER BACK INTO THEIR CHANNELS.
HIGH WATER ON GLACIER CREEK IS CAUSING EROSION OF THE BANKS AND THERE IS MUCH DEBRIS IN AREA
STREAMS. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED SOME MUD AND LAND SLIDES. HOWEVER, AN EARLIER REPORT THAT
THE CHAIR 4 TOWER AT ALEYSKA MAY TOPPLE WAS LATER FCUND TO BE IN ERROR. HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RAIN HAVE CAUSED DOWNED POWER LINES AND TEMPORARY OUTAGES AROUND GIRDWOOD.

WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER ON THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM THURSDAY SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ADA

1600 RFC begins evening shift operations, ending at 11 p.m.

2030 RFC issues River Statement for streams draining the Chugach mountains in the Anchorage
area.

2217 WSPO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "MDLS IN FAIR AGRMNT ON POSITION AND XOVMNT
OF 962MB LOW..XOVG LOW NW TO 64N/177W BY FRI AFTN. NGM/AVN HAVE LOW CNTR PRES ABT 11MB LWR
THAN ETA AT 48 HRS WITH A 978MB CNTR FRI AFTN. NGM/AVN IN AGRXNT ON NXT LOW SW OF THE
ALUTNS ... MOVG IT TO ABT 52N/156W BY FRI AFTN AS A 984MB LOW..5HB HIER THAN ETA. ALL XDLS
SMLR AT 500MB..KEEPING TH STG BLKG PTRN THRU FRI AFTN WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHFTG FM 130W
TO 120W. HI AMP NEG TILT TROF FM NW BERING ACRS AX PEN BY FRI AFTN. 04OIZ SATLT SHOWS PNT
THRU NRN COOK INLET WITH GUD DRY SLOT BEHIND FNT. DRY SLOT MOVG OVR KENAI PEN/WRN PWS."

Thursday , September 21

0325 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "LTST SAT IXGRY SHOWS FNTL BACLN ZONE CONTG
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD..IN LN WITH NGM 500MB PNLS SHWG JET AXIS..FLAT WV KVG NWD TWD
MDO..VSBL ON 0722Z DMSP..SHD HOLD NVY RA OVR KENAI PEN/PWS THRU MRNG HRS..THEN HVY PCPN
SHFTG EWD UNDER JET AXIS TO PWS BY AFTN AND ERN N GLF CST FRI. WILL PRBLY DROP HI WND
ADVSRYS FOR WRN S CNTRL AK BUT HOLD FOR ERN PWS..AREA TO E FNTL BNDRY."

0500 Telephones at the WSFO/RFC out of service.

0730 Telephones back in service.

0830 RFC issues Flood Warning for Kenai River.

Appendix 1-7

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

FLOOD WARNING FOR KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
830 AM THUR SEPT 21 1995

A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER, INCLUDING KENAI LAKE, COOPER LANDING, KENAI KEYS, AND
SOLDOTNA.

HEAVY RAIN OVER THE UPPER PORTION OF THE KENAI BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
HAS CAUSED A MAJOR RISE IN WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. THE GAGE AT COOPER
LANDING HAS RISEN 2.5 FT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER LEVELS AT COOPER LANDING WILL PROBABLY CREST
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY, WITH A STAGE BETWEEN 14 AND 15 FT. FLOOD STAGE AT COOPER
LANDING IS 14.0 FT.

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING AT KENAI KEYS THIS MORNING. RISING STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AT KENAI KEYS AND AT SOLDOTNA. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT BOTH KENAI KEYS
AND SOLDOTNA TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA APPEAR TO BE OVER, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY. SMALLER STREAMS SHOULD BEGIN FALLING TODAY, WITH THE KENAI RIVER
FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1030 RFC issues Flood Watch for Western Susitna Valley.

1230 RFC issues Flood Warning for streams around Valdez.

-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHARDSON HWY NEAR VALDEZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM THUR SEPT 21 1995

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN THE
VICINITY OF VALDEZ. THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM FRIDAY SEPT 23.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE VALDEZ HAVE RAISED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS CONSIDERABLY. THE
TIEKEL AND LOWE RIVERS HAVE RISEN OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND HAVE CAUSED THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO BE
CLOSED AT MILE 47 AND 19 RESPECTIVELY. WATER IS OVER THE HIGHWAY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THAT
STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VALDEZ AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED THURSDAY 7 PM SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ADA

1400 RFC issues upgrade from Flood Watch to Flood Warning for Western Susitna Valley

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
2 PM ADT THU SEP 21 1995

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPGRADED THE FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR SKWENTNA AND
YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
FRIDAY SEPT 22.

Appendix 1-8

THE RADAR SHOWED RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH
STRONG WINDS COMING FROM THE EAST, THE PRECIPITATION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, ONE
REPORT INDICATES ABOUT 4 IN. FELL THIS MORNING AT FINGER LAKES. RIVERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS
RAIN, WITH LAKE CREEK RISING BY FIVE FEET.

A REPORT FROM SKWENTNA INDICATES THE A NUMBER OR ROADS AROUND TOWN ARE UNDERWATER. WATER IS NOT
UP TO THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME BUT IS STEADILY RISING. A LARGE NUMBER OF LOGS ARE RAFTING DOWN
THE RIVER, ADDING TO THE FLOODING PROBLEM.

RADAR IS INDICATING CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUSITNA BASIN. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
TAPPERING OFF ON FRIDAY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 8 PM THURSDAY SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1458 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "IT LKS LIKE LOW S OF KODIAK ISL HAS DSIPTD.
MN BAROCLINIC ZN STILL LINK WITH 300 MB JET OVR ERN GLF AK AND ERN MNLD. LOW NR ALUTNS
STILL KOVG E WITH CDFNT EXTNDG TO S AND SW OF LOW. SFC TROF ASSOCD WITH LOW WILL SWING N
ACRS KODIAK ISL THIS EVE AND ACRS S CNTRL AK FRI MRNG. RDG OVR WRN CANADA WILL BLD INTO
SRN AK FRI AND MOV INTO CNTRL INTR SAT. PRESS GRAD ALG CNTRL GLF CST WILL RELAX THRU FRI.
OCNL RA/SHWR WILL CONT OVR S CNTRL INTR TNGT AND END FRI MRNG. RA ALG CNTRL GLF CST WILL
DMSH TO SHWR BY FRI AFTN. WND ARE STILL LCLY GUSTY ALG CNTRL GLF CST BUT WILL DMSH THRU
TNGT.11

1500 RFC issues Flood Watch for Knik River area.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0300 PM ADT THU SEP 21 1995

... FLOOD POTENTIAL...

HEAVY RAINS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND IN THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS HAVE CAUSED FLOODING IN THE
SEWARD AREA, ON THE KENAI RIVER, AT GIRDWOOD IN TURNIGAN ARM, AND STREAMS DRAINING INTO THE
MATANUSKA RIVER FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SUSITNA RIVER AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS ALSO HIGH. IN THE REST OF THE SUSITNA AND
MATANUSKA VALLEYS, ALONG WITH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MODERATE. THE REST OF
THE STATE IS AT A LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL. (21/1800)

... HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ON KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA,
TO DRIFT EASTWARD. RAINS, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL THEREFORE MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND YAKUTAT. NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE SEWARD AREA AND IN THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS. TURNIGAN ARM, GIRDWOOD AREA, RECEIVED MORE THAN 3 INCHES, AS DID PALMER AND CORDOVA.

RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY ON THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.

LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL IN THE REST OF THE STATE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. RAIN MAY BEGIN IN THE
NORHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE LATER ON THURSDAY, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
GENERALLY CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. WARM WINDS IN THE INTERIOR ARE HELPING TO DRY SOILS IN THAT AREA.

FREEZING LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT THE REST OF THE STATE
SHOULD SEE FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY SATURDAY. (21/1800)

... HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN, INCLUDING THE SKWENTNA AND
YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. RAIN WAS ENHANCED BY STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE ALASKA
RANGE CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY FALL SATURDAY AS THE RAIN
SUBSIDES. (21/2200)

Appendix 1-9

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
HEAVY RAIN IN THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS HAS CAUSED FLOODING OF STREAMS AND RIVERS DRAINING
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. NO FLOODING WAS
REPORTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS NEAR HOMER BUT LEVELS THERE ARE ALSO NEAR BANKFUL. THE KENAI RIVER
IS FLOODING ALONG NEARLY ITS ENTIRE REACH AND HAS NOT YET CRESTED. STREAMS MAY BEGIN TO FALL
LATER THURSDAY BUT RIVERS MAY NOT CREST UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY OR INTO SATURDAY. (21/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE IS A FLOOD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF SEWARD AND A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY NEAR VALDEZ. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL CAUSE
HIGH WATER ON STREAMS IN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAK LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. (21/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
RAIN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL RAISE LEVELS ON STREAMS AND RIVERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
BASIN INTO FRIDAY. FALLING STAGES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND. (21/2200)

ADA

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM ADT THUR SEPT 21 1995

A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22.

RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN AND AROUND GIRDWOOD. GLAICER CREEK
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE STILL CAUSING MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HEAVY EQUIPMENT OPPERATORS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DIVERT MUCH OF THE RUNOFF AND ARE CONTINUING TO DO SO. BY LATE THURSDAY, WATER
LEVELS IN GIRDWOOD STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM SEPT 21 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIVER AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 11
AM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE SEWARD AREA. THE WEATHER FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE SEWARD
AREA. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE: PORT AVE, LOWELL POINT ROAD, NASH ROAD, EXIT GLACIER ROAD,
AND PRIMROSE ROAD. WE ALSO HAVE HEARD THAT THE BOX CANYON LEVEE WAS BREACHED EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH THE RESULT THAT THE OLD EXIT GLACIER ROAD IS UNDER WATER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT THAT THE
WATER IN SEWARD WAS SLOWLY STARTING TO RECEED THIS MORNING.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1700 RFC issues Flood Warning for Cordova area.

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

FLOOD WARNING FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
5 PM THUR SEPT 21 1995

Appendix I-10

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA. THIS
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORDOVA AREA OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS CAUSED A MAJOR RISE IN WATER LEVELS ON
STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA. LEVELS ON ALL STREAMS ARE HIGH. WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE COPPER
RIVER HIGHWAY AT MILE 14, AND WATER IS THREATENING THE ROADWAY AT 9 MILE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 1 PM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ACL

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR RICHARDSON HWY NEAR VALDEZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
700 PM THUR SEPT 21 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF VALDEZ WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM FRIDAY SEPT 22.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.ABOVE VALDEZ HAS RAISED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS CONSIDERABLY. THE
TIEKEL AND LOWE RIVERS HAVE RISEN OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND HAVE CAUSED THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO BE
CLOSED AT MILE 47 AND 19 RESPECTIVELY. WATER IS OVER THE HIGHWAY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THAT
STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VALDEZ AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED FRIDAY 12 PM SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ACL

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
8 PM ADT THU SEP 21 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY SEPT 22.

THE RADAR SHOWED RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUSTITNA BASIN BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS COMING FROM THE EAST, THE PRECIPITATION WAS ENHANCED
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, ONE REPORT INDICATES ABOUT 4 IN. FELL THIS MORNING AT FINGER LAKES.

RIVERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS RAIN, WITH LAKE CREEK RISING BY FIVE FEET. REPORTS THURSDAY
EVENING INDICATE THAT LAKE CREEK IS THREATENING SOME HOMES.

A REPORT FROM SKWENTNA INDICATES THE A NUMBER OR ROADS AROUND TOWN ARE UNDERWATER. SEVERAL HOMES
ARE ALSO IN DANGER OF FLOODING THURSDAY EVENING. WATER IS NOT UP TO THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME BUT
IS STEADILY RISING. A LARGE NUMBER OF LOGS ARE RAFTING DOWN THE RIVER, ADDING TO THE FLOODING
PROBLEM.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 930 AM FRIDAY SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ACL

2127 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "STG BACLIN ZONE ERN GLFAX ASSOCD WITH UPR
JET PRSTNT AND REFLECTED WELL BY PROGS RH/PCP PATTERN. PROGS GENLY SIMILAR IN SYNOPTIC

Appendix I-11

SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURES ARE DF AND PRSTNT MOISTURE/PCPN ERN GLPAK AND DPNG BINARY
SYSTEM..ONE NR DUT WITH CONECTION TO LOW ALG 43N.

WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC ... FLD WRNG YENTNA,SKWENTA RVRS,rENAX RVR, CDV STREAMS.
PLD WRNG RICHARDSON HIWAY.
FLD WRNG CITY OF GIRDWOOD.
FLD WATCH KNIX RVR."

Friday, September 22

0314 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "ALL SATL PIX SEW HVY PCPN ASSOCD W/FNT &
JTSTRM CDV EWD BUT ALL NRN GLFASK STILL UNDER SLY FLOW ALF FOR CONTD RAIN. 2ND TROF XTNDG
SW OF ADQ WILL CONT TO MOV NWD BEST RANDLD BY ETA/NGM. WARM MX TEMPS CONT DUE TO LACK OF
COLD ADVCTN XCP INTO DVLPG LOW. AS DEEP LOW DVLPS IN SRN GLFASK FLOW ALF BCMS MORE SE OVR
CNTRL & ERN XNS FOR SOME BRKS THEN BACK IN LOTS MSTR BY OOZ SUN. LONGR TERM: BERING LOW
BCMS DOMINANT CIRCULATN' BY OOZ MON W/SWLY FLOW ALF OVR ENTR PCST AREA TUE WECH LUXS WET
BUT DOESNT LUX LIKE DOWNPOUR ATTM.

WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
Public ... FLD WRNG YENTA,SKWENTA,KENAI,CDV AREA,RICHARDSON HWY, GIRDWOOD, VWS, 5WD. FLOOD
WATCH KNIK.11

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
900 AM SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
23.

OVER NIGHT THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING WAS STILL RISING, BUT AT ABOUT HALF THE RATE OF THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOUR PERIOD. AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING WAS AT 15.6 FT,
KENAI KEYS 13.8 FT, AND AT SOLDOTNA 12.8 FT. WATER LEVELS AT THE KEYS AND SOLDOTNA WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE TODAY, THEY MAY CREST SOMETIME LATER ON FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PEN, WITH LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NATIONAL GUARD FLEW UP TO SNOW LAKE GLACIER DAM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON, THE LAKE HAD NOT RELEASED AT THAT TIME.

FLOODING IS OCCURING AT KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA AND AT VARIOUS OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER.
AS WATER FLOWS OVER BANKS GAGE READINGS WILL BE ONLY ROUGH ESTIMATES OF WATER LEVELS AS MUCH OF
THE ADDED FLOW SPREADS OUT HORIZONTALLY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

0943 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "CURRENT GOES STLT PIXS SHOWS THERE IS STILL
A STRG BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCD WITH 300 MB SLY JET OVR ERN GLF AK AND ERN AK. WTR VPR CHNL
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE PLUME FM MID LATITUDE CONTG TO XOV INTO ERN AK. ALL MDLS DRPT MN AXIS
OF JET EWD INTO SE AK AND WRN CANADA BY AND SHORTEN SRN FETCH BY SAT NGT. MN SOURCE OF
MOISTURE INTO SRN AK WILL GRADLY DMSH AND SEPT E THRU 48 ERS."

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1000 AM FRI SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY 23.

FLOODING IS OCCURING ALONG THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK. WATER LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RISING ALL NIGHT LONG AT THE CONFLUENCE OF LAKE CREEK INTO THE YENTNA RIVER, DUE TO
RAIN WHICH HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE FOOT HILLS OF THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS.

RADAR THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER SKWENTNA BASIN, THE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS FOR THE RAIN TO DECREASE TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. WATER LEVELS
MIGHT NOT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

Appendix 1-12

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM SATURDAY SEPT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1100 RFC issues Flood Warning for Knik River.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
11 AM ADT FRI SEPT 22 1995

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPGRADED THE FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER.
THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SAT SEPT 23.

RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED AREA STREAMS
TO BEGIN FALLING. THIS FALLING TREND ON STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
THE KNIK RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. PRESENTLY THE
OLD GLENN HIGHWAY IS INUNDATED WHERE IT CROSSES THE KNIK RIVER. ALSO THE FISH HATCHERY ON THE OLD
GLENN IS FLOODED. THIS HIGH WATER ON THE KNIK RIVER IS CAUSING BANK EROSION AND IS CARRYING MUCH
DEBRIS DOWNSTREAM. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 3 PM FRIDAY SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ADA

1100 RFC issues Flood Watch for Tonsina area.

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TONSINA VIDINITY STREAMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1100 AM FRI SEPT 22 1995

... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA
SURROUNDING THE TOWN OF TONSINA. THIS WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
23.

HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN THE TONSINA AREA. BERNARD CREEK HAS BEGUN TO FLOOD ONE HOUSE
AND IS THREATING ANOTHER. RAIN IS SPILLING OVER FROM A NORTH GULF COAST STORM WHICH HAS DUMPED
HEAVY RAIN FROM CORDOVA TO YAKUTAT. RAIN FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS MEANS THAT RAIN IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE TONSINA
AREA TODAY.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1100 RFC cancels Flood Warning for Girdwood.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1100 AM ADT FRI SEPT 22 1995

A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THERE WAS NO RAIN IN GIRDWOOD THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE GIRDWOOD
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS IN THE GIRDWOOD AREA WERE
FALLING, AND WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

Appendix 1-13

ACL

1130 RFC cancels Flood Warning for Seward.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM FRI SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE SEWARD AREA, HOWEVER THE RESURRECTION RIVER IS
DOWN TO 12.9 FT AND MUCH OF THE WATER IN AND ROUND SEWARD HAS RECEEDED. CREWS ARE NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF REPAIRING WASHED OUT ROADS AND OTHER STORM RELATED DAMAGE.

THE WEATHER FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW THOSE EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED

imp

1200 RFC cancels Flood Warning for Valdez area.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR RICHARDSON HWY NEAR VALDEZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM FRI SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF VALDEZ HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

VALDEZ HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN IN NEARLY 12 HOURS, AND WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS IN THE AREA HAVE
BEGUN TO FALL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE VALDEZ AREA AND ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BRING STREAM LEVELS BACK
TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS. ONE LANE OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY HAS BEEN REOPENED TO TRAFFIC AT MILE 47
AND 60.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

ACL

1300 RFC cancels Flood warning for Cordova area.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM FRI SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHT AND SHOWERY IN THE CORDOVA AREA FRIDAY MORNING, AND STREAM LEVELS ARE
BEGINING TO FALL. THE COPPER RIVER HIGHWAY AT MILE 14 WAS STILL CLOSED AT NOON ON FRIDAY, BUT
THE WATER LEVEL WAS DROPPING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
STREAM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

ACL

1503 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "BAROCLINIC ZONE STILL OVR ERN GLF AX AND ERN
AX UNDER 300 MB JET. STLT PIX SHOW WV MOVG ALG FNT INTO ERN GLF. 300 MB JET WILL CONT TO
DRFT E INTO WRN CANADA SUN AFTN."

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KNIK RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
3:45 PM ADT FRI SEPT 22 1995

Appendix 1-14

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER AND STREAMS DRAINING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SAT SEPT 23.

RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED AREA STREAMS
TO BEGIN FALLING. THIS FALLING TREND ON STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE KNIK
RIVER HAD CRESTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY MORNING THE OLD GLENN HIGHWAY WAS INUNDATED WHERE IT CROSSES THE KNIK RIVER, THE FISH
HATCHERY ON THE OLD GLENN WAS ALSO FLOODED. A PORTION OF THE KNIK RIVER ROAD WAS STILL
UNDERWATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WATER WAS ALSO STILL SURROUNDING SOME HOUSES NEAR THE FISH
HATCHERY. THE HIGH WATER ON THE KNIK RIVER AND ASSOCIATED STREAMS IS CAUSING BANK EROSION AND
THERE IS A LOT OF DEBRIS IN THE RIVER. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE EAGLE RIVER CRESTED AT THE GLENN HIGHWAY BRIDGE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
AND THE FLOW IS VERY TURBULENT. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF BANK EROSION ALONG EAGLE RIVER, AND A
GAS LINE IS THREATENED AT THE EAGLE RIVER LOOP BRIDGE. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT A COUPLE OF
BRIDGES ON THE LOWER EAGLE RIVER ON FORT RICHARDSON ARE UNDERWATER, THEREFORE BOATING IS NOT
BEING PERMITTED ON THE LOWER RIVER FRIDAY, AND BOATING IS NOT ADVISED ON THE UPPER RIVER.
SEVERAL FOOTBRIDGES ON HIKING TRAILS IN THE AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN WASHED OUT.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM SAT SEPT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ACL

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0345 PM FRI SEPT 22 1995

-FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
-FLOODING ALONG UPPER YENTNA RIVER, AND THE SKWENTNA RIVER
-FLOODING ALONG KINK RIVER AT OLD GLENN HIGHWAY
-MINOR FLOODING IN STREAMS IN VICINITY OF TONSINA

HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF SUSITNA BASIN,
NEAR PTARMAGIN PASS. LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE KENAI PEN.
AND OVER THE WESTERN CHUGACH. IT DOES APPEAR FROM SATELITE PHOTOS. AND MODEL QPF'S THAT THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS AROUND YAKUTAT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. RAIN FOR THE
KENAI PEN. SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TODAY, TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE WESTERN
SUSTINA BASIN, THE MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STILL FAVOUR OROGRPAHIC RAINFALL, BUT AS 500 MB LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD, MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST,
INCLUDING THE LOWER COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THROUGHOUT THE PRESENT STORM, MUCH OF THE CURRENT DATA
SUGGEST THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT. LOW LYING RAIN GAGES
HAVE OFTEN NOT BEEN GOOD INDICATORS OF RAINFALL TOTALS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING LEVELS:
ANC 6500 FT, ADQ 6500 AND 11000 FT OVER YAK. EXPECT FL TO DROP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ABOUT A
THOUSAND FEET ON SATURDAY. (22/2000)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
THE KNIK RIVER IS STILL HIGH. IT MAY CREST SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING. EAGLE RIVER AT THE GLENN
HIGHWAY BRIDGE IS STILL VERY HIGH, IT HOWEVER IS STARTING TO RECEED SLOWLY. BOTH SHIP CREEK AND
MIDDEL FORK OF CAMPBELL CREEK HAVE LOWERING WATER LEVELS. (22/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
NO PROBLEMS TO REPORT AT THIS TIME. A FLOOD WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KENAI RIVER.
(22/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...

THE COOPER RIVER AT THE MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE HAS TRIPLED ITS FLOW OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA AROUND THE COMMUNITY OF TONSINA. (22/2200)

Appendix 1-15

JMP/ADA

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0430 PM SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
23.

AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON COOPER LANDING GAGE READ 15.86 FT, UP ABOUT 4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. BOTH TRAIL AND SNOW RIVERS HAVE STEADY WATER LEVELS. STILL EXPECTING KENAI LAKE TO CREST
OUT SOMETIME TONIGHT. AS OF 4 PM KENAI KEYS MEASURED 14.11 FT, WHILE AT 1 PM AT SOLDOTNA THE
GAGE READ 12.98 FT. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 8 PM FRI SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1700 Hydrologist-in-Charge Jerry Nibler and Warning Coordination meteorologist Dave Goldstein
brief ADES.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0830 PM SEPT 22 1995

THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
23.

AS OF 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON COOPER LANDING GAGE READ 15.96 FT, UP ABOUT 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. AT THE KENAI KEYS, WATER LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AT A RATE OF ALMOST 0.5 INCH PER
HOUR. INFLOW INTO KENAI LAKE HAS BEGAN TO FALL AND WATER LEVELS AT COOPERS LANDING ARE EXPECTED
TO CREST SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. AS OF 7 PM WATER LEVELS AT THE KENAI KEYS MEASURED 14.32 FT, AND
AT 8 PM AT SOLDOTNA THE RIVER GAGE READ 13.40 FT. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE
TONIGHT AT THE KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA WITH CRESTING WATER LEVELS EXPECTED AT THE KENAI KEYS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM FRI SAT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

Saturday, September 23

Day Shift Lead forecaster Neil Murakami briefs ADES and EOCs in Kenai and Seward on
weather conditions.

0200 Forecaster Sam Albanese receives call from a resident on the Kenai River wanting
information about the rising water. Last statement issued by RFC was at 9 p.m. Friday

Appendix 1-16

calling for continued rising water through mid-day. Caller says he has about 2 inches to
go before he is in the water. Caller suggests including the rate of rise of river in
flood products.

0250 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "FLOW ALOFT AND AT SFC WILL BECOME EASTERLY
AND ANTICYCLONIC FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST AND GIVE THEM A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE
RAIN..BUT EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERY WX FOR S CNTRL AX.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0930 AM SAT SEPT 23 1995

THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.

RAIN WAS VERY LIGHT LAST NIGHT OVER THE UPPER KENAI RIVER BASIN, BOTH TRAIL AND SNOW RIVERS ARE
SLOWLY DROPPING. AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING WAS 16.08 FT. IT APPEARS
THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED CREST OF KENAI LAKE IS IN PROGRESS. AS OF 9 AM KENAI KEYS READ 15.03
FT, A RISE OF ABOUT 0.5 IN PER HOUR. NO READING FROM SOLDOTNA THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
LEVELING OFF OF KENAI LAKE KENAI KEYS AND POINTS DOWNSTREAM SHOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF RISE IN
WATER LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SOMEWHERE IN THE 3 TO 6 IN RANGE. THIS IS A ROUGH ESTIMATE
SINCE THE ACTUAL AMOUNT DEPENDS ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPY, ETC.

THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE KENAI BASIN TODAY AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THIS RAIN TO IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION
VERY MUCH.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1000 RFC cancels Flood Warning for the Knik River.

HIC Jerry Nibler flies to Kenai to provide on-site support for the EOC through the
weekend.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KNIK RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
10 AM ADT SAT SEPT 23 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER AND STREAMS DRAINING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
FALLING. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. BANK EROSION AND FLOATING DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS WELL SO PERSONS NEAR THESE WATER COURSES SNOULD REMAIN ALERT, BUT NO FURTHER RISES OR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

ADA

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1100 AM SAT SEPT 23 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.

FLOODING IS OCCURING ALONG THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK. A REPORT OUT OF
SKWENTNA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE RIVER THERE DROPED ABOUT ONE FOOT OVER NIGHT, IN ADDITON
THE AIRSTRIP WAS NEVER UNDERWATER, AS SOME OF THE TV STATIONS ERRONOUSLY REPORTED.
ON LAKE CREEK, THE WATER ROSE ANOTHER 6 INCHES OVER NIGHT, CHELATNA LAKE IS STILL HIGH AS OF 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER SKWENTNA BASIN,

Appendix 1-17

HOWEVER AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS VERY LITTLE RAIN FALLING OVER THE ALAKSA
RANGE. AS A ROUGH ESTIMATE WATER LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CREEK SHOULD START
TO DROP SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 AM SUN SEPT 24 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

300 PM SAT SEPT 23 1995

-FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
-FLOODING ALONG UPPER YENTNA RIVER, AND THE SKWENTNA RIVER

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND THE STATE ARE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY'S VALUES.
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS RECORDED OVER THE UPPER KENAI RIVER BASIN, AS LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER VALDEZ AND
CORDOVA. BASED ON RADAR RETURNS THERE WAS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG THE
MTNS. BORDERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SUSITNA BASIN. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RADAR IS NOT
INDICATING ANY RAIN OVER THIS VERY SATURATED BASIN.

IT APPEARS THAT THE COOPER LANDING GAGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF CRESTING (16.1 FT), WHICH MEANS THAT
THE KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA AREAS MAY ONLY SEE A 3 TO 6 IN RISE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY SHOULD BE ON A SCATTERED BASIS WITH TOTALS LESS THAN ONE
INCH. MODERATE RAIN OVER THE NO. GULF. COAST BY LATER TODAY. FREEZING LEVELS THIS MORNING OVER
ANC WAS 6000 FT, 4500 FT OVER ADQ, 9500 FT OVER YAK, AND 7500 FT OVER FAI. EXPECT FREEZING LEVEL
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO BE IN THE 6000 FT RANGE ON SUNDAY. (23/1830)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN, INCLUDING THE SKWENTNA AND
YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. BOTH THE YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CREEK WERE RISING
THIS MORNING. RAIN IS DECREASING IN THE AREA, WHATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ON THE SKWENTNA RIVER AT THE TOWN OF SKWENTNA. (23/2230)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
MOST OF THE SMALLER RIVERS WHICH DRAINING THESE RANGES HAVE DROPPING WATER LEVELS. THE SUSITNA
RIVER HAS A MODEST RISE WHICH SHOULD NOT LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. (23/2230)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, TOTALS ARE IN THE LIGHT CATEGORY.
THE KENAI RIVER HAS CRESTED AT COOPER LANDING, AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT KENAI KEYS AND
SOLDOTNA ON SATURDAY EVENING. (23/2230)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
THE RIVER LEVEL AT THE MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE IS STILL VERY HIGH BUT DROPED A SLIGHT AMOUNT FROM
YESTERDAYS VALUE. RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS CAUSING SOME PROBLEMS IN THE
TONSINA AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO BE MODERATE OVER MTNS. OF THIS BASIN, RIVERS HOLDING STEADY FOR
SUNDAY. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD RISE TOMORROW IF RAIN TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER THAN IS
EXPECTED. (23/2230)

JMP/ADA

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM SAT SEPT 23 1995

THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.

COOPER LANDING GAGE IS HOLDING STEADY AT 16.0 FT AS OF 1 PM. KENAIKEYS WAS 15.27 PT AT 4 PM,
SODOTNA WAS 14.0 FT AT 1 PM. AT THEPRESENT TIME MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER PARTS OF THE KENAI BASIN. ESTIMATING CREST IN KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA THIS EVENING.

THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW.

Appendix 1-18

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 8 PM SAT SEPT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1700 DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES in person.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STATION FLD STAGE OBSERVATION LST 24 HR FORECAST(24HR)

COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT 15.7 FT @21Z -0.4 FT 15.0 FT @23Z
KENAI KEYS 12.0 FT 15.5 FT @23Z +0.2 FT 15.3 FT @23z
SOLDOTNA 12.0 FT 14.6 FT @20Z +0.5 FT 14.3 FT @23Z

STATION RAIN (LAST 24 HR) RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)

SEWARD 0.5 IN 0.4 IN
KENAI 0.4 IN 0.3 IN
HOMER 0.3 IN 0.3 IN

FREEZING LEVELS SUNDAY:6000-6500 FT MONDAY:5500-6000 FT

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

Sunday, September 24

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0900 SUN SEPT 24 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.

THE WATER LEVEL AT COOPER LANDING DROPED SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES LAST NIGHT, AND NOW MEASURES
15.75 FT. KENAI KEYS ROSE JUST LESS THAN A INCH OVERNIGHT AND NOW MEASURES 15.44 FT. SOLDOTNA IS
NOW AT 14.50 FT, A RISE OF ABOUT 4 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY EVENINGS OBSERVATION. AN ADDITONAL
RISE OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AT SOLDOTNA IS POSSIBLE. KENAI KEYS APPEARS TO BE ABOUT AT ITS CREST.

LIGHT RAIN FELL OVER NIGHT AND IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING A 4 AM THIS MORNING ARE:
KENAI 0.31 IN
HOMER 0.26 IN
SEWARD 0.43 IN

NOT EXPECTING THIS RAIN TO ADD VERY MUCH WATER INTO THE KENAI BASIN.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SUN SEPTEMBER 24 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1000 AM SUN SEPT 24 1995

Appendix 1-19

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25.

WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE DECREASING. AT THE
VILLAGE OF SKWENTNA, THE RIVER IS NOW BACK TO BANKFULL. ON LAKE CREEK, WHERE IT FLOWS INTO THE
YENTNA, WATER LEVELS DROPED ABOUT 12 INCHES OVER NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FELL OVER THE BASIN VERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY RAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE IS OVER FOR NOW. WATER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 AM SUN SEPT 24 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

1300 RFC cancels Flood Watch for Tonsina area.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE TONSINA AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0100 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995

...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BERNARD CREEK AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE VINCINITY OF TONSINA, HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

BERNARD CREEK HAS CONTINUED TO DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND POSES A MINOR THREAT TO NEARBY
PROPERTY OWNERS AT THIS TIME. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LOWER COPPER RIVER BASIN
LAST NIGHT. THE FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY.

THE FLOODING OF BERNARD CREEK ERODED THE ACCESS ROAD INTO THE SUBDIVSION, AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
IT ALSO ERODED AWAY A 70 FT STRETCH OF THE BANK AS WELL AS TRANSPORT A NUMBER OR LARGE TREES.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

imp

1700 DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES in person.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0300 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995

-FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
-FLOODING ALONG UPPER YENTNA RIVER, AND THE SKWENTNA RIVER

RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE LIGHT. ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES FELL OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA. THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS CALLING FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.
STILL RAINING IN SUSITNA BASIN, BUT THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. FREEZING LEVEL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AROUND 6500 FT, 7500 FT AT
FAIRBANKS, 10000 FT OVER YAKUTAT AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST. (24/1900)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS ...
WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. RAIN IS LIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL SUSITNA BASIN, ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITONAL RISES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (24/2200)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING DROPPING WATER LEVELS TODAY AND TOMORROW. (24/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, TOTALS ARE IN THE LIGHT CATEGORY.
THE KENAI RIVER HAS CRESTED AT COOPER LANDING, AND IS IN THE MIDST OF A BORAD CREST AT KEANI KEYS
AND SOLDOTNA. (24/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
THE COOPER RIVER IS DROPPING AS WELL AS ITS TRIBUATARIES. RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN THE
LOWER BASIN HAS BEEN LIGHT. (24/2200)

Appendix 1-20

JMP/ADA

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVEFLOOD STAGE.
STATION FLD STAGE OBSERVATION LST 24 HR FORECAST(24HR)

COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT 15.7 FT @21Z -0.4 FT 15.0 FT @23Z
KENAI KEYS 12.0 FT 15.5 FT @23Z +0.2 FT 15.3 FT @23Z
SOLDOTNA 12.0 FT 14.6 FT 920Z +0.5 FT 14.3 FT @23Z

STATION RAIN (LAST 24 HR) RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)

SEWARD 0.5 IN 0.4 IN

KENAI 0.4 IN 0.3 IN
HOMER 0.3 IN 0.3 IN

FREEZING LEVELS SUNDAY:6000-6500 FT MONDAY:5500-6000 FT

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

Monday, September 25

0815 DOH Larry Rundquist briefs Alaska military Affairs Commissioner at ADES.

1000 RFC cancels Flood Warning for Western susitna Basin.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1000 AM MON SEPT 25 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK CONTINUE TO FALL. AT THE
VILLAGE OF SKWENTNA AND ALONG THE YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CREEK, WATER LEVELS ARE NOW WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AT MOST LOCATIONS. NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF LAKE CREEK AND THE YENTNA WATER LEVELS HAVE
FALLEN 48 INCHES FROM THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL ON SATURDAY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO FURTHER THREAT OF
FLOODING EXISTS DUE TO THIS EVENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

DPS

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

0300 PM MON SEPT 25 1995

-FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER

RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE LIGHT. RAIFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.13 IN ANCHORAGE
TO ALMOST 0.5 INCHES IN SEWARD. THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS CALLING FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED FROM THIS PRECIPITAION. IN THE

Appendix 1-21

CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IS FORECAST OVER THE CHENA BASIN. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO INTO NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. QPF FROM BETHEL ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN. ARE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FREEZING LEVEL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ARE AROUND
6000 FT AND APPROX. 7000 FT IN FAIRBANKS.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. (25/1900)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE WITHIN THEIR BANKS AT MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
IS LIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL SUSITNA BASIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
NO ADDITONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (25/2200)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SLOWLY FALLING LEVELS MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
(25/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
RIVERS AND STREAMS ON KODIAK ISLAND ARE FALLING AFTER THE CREST CAUSED BY EARLIER RAIN. LIGHT
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT TOTALS HAVE BEEN IN
THE LIGHT CATEGORY. THE RAIN HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED LEVELS ON THE KENAI RIVER, WHICH IS
PRESENTLY SEVERAL FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ALONG ITS ENTIRE REACH. LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON MOST OF THE KENAI RIVER UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEK. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
THE SEWARD AREA ARE FALLING. (25/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
THE COOPER RIVER IS DROPPING AS WELL AS ITS TRIBUATARIES. RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN THE
LOWER BASIN HAS BEEN LIGHT. WITH ONLY SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND FREEZING LEVELS FALLING
SOME, MOST RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE A FALLING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. (25/2200)

JMP/ADA

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM MON SEPT 25 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STATION FLD STAGE OBSERVATION LST 24 HR FORECAST(24HR)

COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT 15.4 FT @1PM -0.3 FT 14.9 FT @4PM
KENAI KEYS 12.0 FT 15.4 FT @3PM -0.1 FT 15.1 FT @4PM
SOLDOTNA 12.0 FT 14.2 FT @lPM -0.3 FT 13.8 FT @4PM

STATION RAIN (LAST 24 HR) RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
@9AM STARTING @3PM

SEWARD 0.4 IN 0.2 IN
KENAI 0.3 IN 0.2 IN
HOMER 0.2 IN 0.2 IN

FREEZING LEVELS MONDAY:5000-5500 FT TUESDAY:5000 FT

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM TUE SEPT 26 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

Tuesday. September 26

0815 DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES in person.

0900 DOH Larry Rundquist briefs Alaska Lt. Governor Ulmer at ADES.

Appendix 1-22

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
900 AM SEPT 26 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 30.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STATION FLD STAGE OBSERVATION LST 24 HR FORECAST(24HR)

COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT 15.2 FT @7Am -0.2 FT 14.8 FT @7AM
KENAI KEYS 12.0 FT 15.3 FT @8AM -0.1 FT 15.0 FT @8AM
SOLDOTNA 12.0 FT 14.4 FT @8AM +0.2 FT 14.1 FT @8AM

THE SOLDOTNA GAGE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF ROUGH WATER, CAUSING
THE MEASUREMENTS TO FLUCTUATE.

STATION RAIN (LAST 24 HR) RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
@9AM STARTING @9AM

SEWARD 0.3 IN 0.1 IN
KENAI 0.3 IN 0.0 IN
HOMER 0.2 IN 0.0 IN

FREEZING LEVELS TUESDAY:6500 FT WENDESDAY:5500-6000 FT

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM TUE SEPT 26 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

JMP-

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0300 PM TUE SEPT 26 1995

-FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
-FLOOD POTENTIAL MODERATE FOR REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK
-FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW TO MODERATE FOR FAIRBANKS AREA AND PORCUPINE RIVER BASIN.
-FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.

THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TUESDAY. RAIN IS ALSO OCCURING IN THE PORCUPINE RIVER
BASIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE TANANA VALLEY ALSO EXPERIENCING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO ALOW IN THE BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY. TOTALS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHCENTRAL. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. (26/1900)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE WITHIN THEIR BANKS AT MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
WAS LIGHT OVER THE BASIN YESTERDAY, HENCE RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP TO NORMAL LEVELS.
(26/2200)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SLOWLY FALLING STAGES. (26/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...

RIVERS ON KODIAK IS. AND ON THE KENAI PEN. CONTINUE TO DROP. THE

LOWER KENAI RIVER SHOULD REMAIN AOBVE FLOOD STAGE FROM 4 TO 6 DAYS AT MOST LOCATIONS. (26/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
BOTH THE GAKONA AND THE GULKANA RIVERS HAD VERY SLIGHT RISES, WHILE THE TONSINA AND MILLION
DOLLAR BRIDGE GAGES WERE DROPPING. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE LIGHT OVER THIS BASIN, SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY'S OBSERVATIONS. (26/2200)

JMP/ADA/SDL

Appendix 1-23

$ $

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM TUE SEPT 26 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL RE14AIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 30.
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STATION FLD STAGE OBSERVATION LST 24 HR FORECAST(24HR)

COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT 15.1 FT @lPM -0.3 FT 14.7 FT @4PM
KENAI KEYS 12.0 FT 15.2 FT @1PM -0.2 FT 14.9 FT @4PM
SOLDOTNA 12.0 FT 14.4 FT @8AM +0.2 FT 13.9 FT @4PM

THE SOLDOTNA GAGE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF ROUGH WATER, CAUSING THE MEASUREMENTS TO FLUCTUATE.

STATION RAIN (LAST 24 HR) RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
@9AM STARTING @4PM

SEWARD 0.3 IN 0.0 IN
KENAI 0.3 IN 0.0 IN
HOMER 0.2 IN 0.0 IN

FREEZING LEVELS TUESDAY:6500 FT WENDESDAY:5500-6000 FT

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM WED SEPT 27 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

imp

Wednesday, September 27

0700 RFC hours of operation change from 7:00 a.m. - 11:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m.

FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
900 AM WED SEPT 27 1995

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 30.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STATION FLD STAGE OBSERVATION LST 24 HR FORECAST(24HR)

COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT 14.6 FT @7AM -0.6 FT 14.1 FT @9AM
KENAI KEYS 12.0 FT 14.9 FT @8AM -0.6 FT 14.3 FT @9AM
SOLDOTNA 12.0 FT 13.9 FT @8AM -0.5 FT 13.5 FT @9AM

THE SOLDOTNA GAGE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF ROUGH WATER, CAUSING THE MEASUREMENTS TO FLUCTUATE.

STATION RAIN (LAST 24 HR) RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
@9AM STARTING @9AM

SEWARD 0.01 IN 0.0 IN
KENAI 0.01 IN 0.0 IN
HOMER 0.04 IN 0.05 IN

FREEZING LEVELS WEDNESDAY:6000 FT THURSDAY:4500-5000 FT

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM WED SEPT 27 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

DPS

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA

Appendix 1-24

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
0300 PM WED SEPT 27 1995

TUESDAY LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED IN NORTHERN ALASKA, THE FAIRBANKS AREA, ACROSS AK PEN AND KENAI
PEN, AND IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LARGEST 24 HOUR TOTAL WAS .41 INCHES AT KODIAK. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/FLURRIES THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND A LOW
FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK IS. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE Y-K DELTA AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WEDNESDAY, MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5
INCH. THE SYSTEM FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAIN INTO KODIAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND UP THE KENAI PEN AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MODEL
QPFS ALONG THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND THE GULF COAST ARE AROUND 0.5 INCH, WITH QPFS OF AROUND 0.2
INCH FOR WESTERN KENAI PEN.

WEDNESDAY MORNING FREEZING LEVELS IN SOUTHCENTRAL ARE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FT, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 3800 AND 5000 FT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
(27/1900)

ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY DID NOT AFFECT THE
FALLING WATER LEVEL TREND. RIVER AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY. (27/2200)

WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING IN THIS AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RATE OF THE FALLING TREND
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED. THE KENAI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, THE LOWER RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
(27/2200)

NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
RIVERS ON KODIAK ISLAND AND IN THE SEWARD AREA CONTINUE TO FALL. LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION OVER NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CAUSE MOST STREAMS TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY IN THE SEWARD
AREA AND ON KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. (27/2200)

COPPER RIVER BASIN...
THE GULKANA AND GAKONA RIVER WERE RELATIVELY STEADY WHILE THE COPPER RIVER WAS FALLING AT MILLION
DOLLAR BRIDGE. RELATIVELY STEADY STAGES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE UPPER COPPER
RIVER BASIN WHILE FALLING STAGES SHOULD CONINUE ON THE COPPER RIVER AT MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (27/2200)

ACL/DPS

Friday, September 29

1600 RFC cancels Upper Kenai River Flood Warning.

2116 WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts:"HWVR DUE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THIS SYS
PRFR ETA QPF VALUES WHICH IN THE 24-36HR AND 36-48 HR PDS OVR THE WRN AND CNTRL N GLF CSTL
AREAS ARE ABT TWICE THE NGM VALUES..RSNBL AGRMNT OVR KODIAK ISL..THIS COULD SET STAGE FOR
ADNL FLOOD PRBLMS ON THE KENAI PEN ... LESSER AMTNS..GNLY BLO % INCH IN 24 HR PD..N OF CSTL
RANGE AS LOW STALLS N OF KODIAK AND FNT WKNS AS IT ROTATES NWD OVR CSTL RANGE. MAX DPNG OF
THIS SYS AT 30 HRS..06Z SUN..NR CDB AT 968MB WITH OCLN IN ARC THRU N PTH-N SKJ-55N 148W
AND TRLG FNT SSW. AT 48 HRS..LOW MVD TO LWR SHELIKOF STRAIT..974MB WITH OCLN IN ARC THRU N
ILI-S TKA-VCNTY VWS-S YAK-55N 137W AND TRLG CDFNT SSW. GALE TO STORM FORCE WNDS TO 150 NM
IN ADVN FNT NINW GALES PSBLY STORM GUSTS TO ABT 300 NM W OF LOW CNTR OVR SE BERING/ALUTNS
AND AK PEN. BACLN ZONE ACRS KENAI PEN-PWS AND EWD ALG N GLF CST QSNTRY WITH WWD MVG FNTL
WVS..PRDCG MDT RA OVR THE NRN PENISULA AND PSBLY IN THE GIRDWOOD AREA."

2330 RFC issues River Statement for streams draining the southern Chugach Mountains and
northern Kenai Mountains.

Sunday, October 1

Appendix 1-25

RFC returns to normal hours of operation: 7:00 a.m. - 5 p.m.

Monday, October 2

0900 DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES and the press at the ADES.

1600 Lower Kenai River Flood Warning canceled.

Appendix 1-26

-AP endix ii
PP

Precilpitation and Streamflow
Gauge Locations and Data

Appendix II contains Tables 4,5, and 6. Table 4 lists the
location of precipitation gauges used for the analyses in this
report. These locations are shown in Figures 7 and 8 in Chapter
III. Table 5 provides the daily precipitation amounts collected
during the period September 17-30, 1995. Table 6 lists discharge
and recurrence interval data provided by the U.S. Geological
Survey.

Appendix II-1

Table 4 Location of Precipitation Stations -77 Longitude Eleva
Latitude tion @Gauqe
Site 1. D. Location Deg min Dea Min (feet) Tv--'
Anchorage and Chugach Mountains (Figure 16)
AAA INDIAN PASS 61 4 149 29 2350 R1
ALYS ALYESKA 60 58 149 8 250 C
ANC ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 61 10 150 1 114 R3
APU ALASKA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY 61 11 149 48 220 C
AQY GIRDWOOD 60 58 149 7 nnsg_ Ri
CER CHICHAGOF LOOP, EAGLE RIVER 61 18 149 31 s C
EKPR EKLUTNA PROJECT 61 28 149 10 38 C
ER5 EAGLE RIVER 5 SE 61 18 -149 26 600 C__
ERP EAGLE RIVER VISITORS CENTR. 61 _114- 149 16 rnsg_ R1
GLP GLEN ALPS 61 _6 149 41 nnsg _ R 1
LRC LITTLE RABBIT CK. 61 5 149 42 rnsg_ R1
MLSC MIRROR LAKE SCOUT CAMP 61 26 149 25 405 C
PAFR FORT RICHARDSON WTP 61 14 149 38-- 49-0 R31
RIBT RABBIT CK. 61 5 149 _44- 1480 R1
SEG SO FK. EAGLE RV. 61 14 149 26 rnsg_ Ri
TUX TUXEDNIPARK 61 9 149 42 rnsg R1
KenalPeni sula (Figure 16)
519 19 MILES NORTH OF SEWARD 60 20 149 21 -495 C
5WID SEWARD, AT THE HOTEL 60 7 149 27 35 R61
ABD TURNAGAIN PASS 60 47 149 11 1880 R1
ABIVI SUMMIT CREEK 60 37 149 32 1400 R1
ABR GRANDVIEW 60 36 149 4 1100 R1
APT -ANCHOR RIVER 59 45 151 45 rnsg R24
APT1 ANCHOR RV. NR ANCHOR PT. 59 46 151 50 R1
BRIVI MIDDLE FK BRADLEY RIVER 59 48 150 45 2300 RW
BFIRE BRADLEY RIESV. OUTLET 59 46 150 51 1050 IRW
BFIT BRADLEY RIVER @ TIDEWATER 59 48 150 53 90 RW
CLK COOPER LAKE 60 23 149 41 1200 C
COLK COOPER LAKE PROJECT 60 23 149 40 445 C
ENA KENAI FAA AIRPORT 60 34 151 15 86 R31
EXT EXIT GLACIER VISITOR CENTER 60 12 149 37 490 C
GLC GLACIER CK. @ BRUNO RD. 60 11 149 24 Ri
H9E HOMER 9 EAST 59 43 151 19 900 C
HCOV HALIBUT COVE, SOUTH OF HOMER 59 36 151 10 30 C
HOM HOMER 59 38 151 30 89 R3
K9N KENAI 9 NORTH 60 40 151 19 130 C
KASI KASILOF 60 22 151 23 70 C
KMR KENAI MOOSE PENS 60 44 150 28 300 R1
LWG -TRAIL IRV. NR LAWING 60 24 149 22 _g__ R1
WAS MOOSE PASS 60 30 149 26 485 C
MYS MYSTERY CK. @KENAI NWR 60 35 150 18 g_ Ri
PRK NUKA RIVER @ PARK BOUNDARY 59 41 150 42 1300 IRW
SILV SILVER LAKE NEAR MOOSE RIVER 69 31 144 11 1200 C
SWID SEWARDASOS 60 8 149 25 9 R1
SXQ SOLDOTNA 60 29 151 2 107 R11
ITUT ITUTKA BAY LAGOON 1 59 1 26 1 151 1 25 1 20 IC
C Climate station - monthly reports
R Real-time reports (n=interval in hrs; W=weekly; I=intermiftent reports)

Appendix 11-2

Table 4 Location of Precipitation Stations
Latitude Longitude- Elevation Gauge
J Min Deg Min (feet) Tvnt-*
Site I.D. Location Deg
Kodiak Island and Western Cook Inlet (Figure 15)
5131 BIG RIVER LAKES 60- 49 152 18 40 - R241
ADQ KODIAK- KODIAK -ISLAND------ 57 -45 152 30 15 R3
CHIN SOUTH COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND 57 37 152 22 48 C
INT INTRICATE BAY 59 34 154 28 170 C
OUZ OUZINKIE 57 56 -C------
Z30 PORT ALSWORTH 60 12 154 18 260 C
Matanuska and Knik River Basins (Figure 16)
5WO LAZY MOUNTAIN 61 38 149 -2 790 R241
AK42 SUTTON 2 EAST 61 43 148 53 550 R241
ANDL ANDERSON LAKE 61 37 149 20 495 C
LSU LITTLE SUSITNA RIVER 61 43 149 14 920 R24
LSUS LITTLE SUSITNA LARC 61 43 149 14 920 --R1
MAES MATANUSKA AGRI EXP STATION 61 34 149 16 150 C
MAG GLACIER PARK- MATANUSKA GLACIER 61 47 147 48 ms R1
PAES -PAMER.IAS--------------- -36 149 -6 225 - C
PAQ PALMER MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 61 36 149 5 232 R61
SUT ---SUTTON LARC 61 42-1.48-51- Mg- R 1
WAS WASILLA CREEK AT PALMR-WAS HWY 61 35 149 17 msg
R24

WAS3 WASILLA 3 SOUTH 61 32 149
26 5
Susitna River Basin (Figure 15)
5HR HAYES RIVER - -61 59 -152-5 1009 R24-1
ACR SU RIVER AND ALEXANDER CK CONFL 61 25 150 35 MSQ R24
CANT CANTWELL 2 EAST 63 24 148 54 2150 C
CLAK CHEL.ATNA LAKE--- 62 --26 151 25 msg_ R24
LAK YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CK CONFL 61- -- 54- 150 54 msg- R24
PTI ---- PUNTILLA LAKE 62 6 152 45 1832 R241
SKW SKWENTNA 61 58 151 11 150 R241
SUN SUNSHINE 62 11 150 -8 280 R24
TKA TALKEETNA 62 19 150 6 345 R31
TML TWELVE MILE LAKE 61 46 149 43 M-9 Ri
WIL WILLOW-CREEK AT-WILLOW 61 46 150 4 200 R24
WILW WILLOW WEST 61 45 150 3 205 C
Copper RI r Basin (Figure 15)
5G N TAH N ETA PASS 61 147 33 2621 R24
5PX PAXSON 63 2 145 -30 2701 R241
GAK- GAKONA 62 18 145 18 ms - R24
GKIN GULKANA FAA 62 9 145 27 1570 R241
KCAM --GLENNALLEN KCAM 62-7 145- 32- 1456 C-----
LKSU LAKE SUSITNA 62 27 146 41 -- 2100 C
MXY MCCARTHY 3 SOUTHWEST 61 25 143 0 1250 R24
TON TONSINA 61 39 145 11 1500 R241
Prince Wilialm Sound and Gulf of Alaska Coastline (Figure 15)
5WT --- WHITT -IER 60 46 148 41 60 R241
CDN----COR-POVA-NORTH ------60 33 145 46 - -25 C
CDV--- CORDOVA 60 30 145 30 41 R31
MAIN---- -MAINBAY 30 148 -- 5 40 C
PTSW PORT SAN JUAN -----60 148 4 0 C
@
I'l
P
C

VWS-VALD-EZ 8 146 -21 23 R3
IYAK IYAKUTAT 1 59 1 31 1 139 1 40 1 28 IR3
C Climate station - monthly reports
R Real-time reports (n=interval in hrs; W=weekly; I=Intermiftent reports)

Appendix 11-3

Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations

I
Site 09/171 09/18 09/19 09/20 09/21 09/22 09/23 09/24 09/25 09/26 09/27. 09/28 09/29 09/30
Anchoraae nd Chuaach Mountal s
AAA mid 0.00 0.00 0.10 3.20 0.60 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.50 0.1
ALYS 8 0.00 0.05 0.92 4.20 3.65 0.62 0.37 0.13 0.52 0.17 0.00 0.00, 0.08 0.87
ANC mid 0.00 0.20 0.02 0.03 0.31 0.00 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.50 0.07
APLI 9 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.17 0.69 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01- 0.00 0.06 0.54
AQY 4 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 msg msg
CER 17 0.02 0.00 0.03 1.21 0.36 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.16
EKPR 16 mso 0.02 0.00 1.55 1.281 msa msg msQ 0.14 0.00 msg msg msg msa
ER5 18 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.60 0.531 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00, 0.28
ERP 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
GLP 4 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2
LRC 4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
MLSC 9 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.24 0.87 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13
PAFR 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 1.13 0.02 0.00 0.021 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.021 0.29
RBT 4 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.15 1.72 0.48 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.84
SEG 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 msg
,Tux 4- 0-0 0.0- 0 1.2 0.21 OLo_____ 0-0 n.01 0.0 0,01 nn An n_A

Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations

I Obs Time I I I
Site I (Loc Std) 3 09/19 09/20 09/21 09/22 09/23 09/24 09/25 09/26 09/27 09/28 09/29 09/30
Kenai Peninsula --
519 7 0.00 0.04 0.28 2.74 2.50 0.78 0.56 0.48 0.53 0.35 0.01-0.00 0.25 0.72
5WD 2 0.00 0.65 0.89, 9.81 1.53 1.24, 0.43 0.39 061 0.00 0.00 1.20, 0.04 0.78
4
ABD 0.30 0.00 0.50 2.10 2.89 1.00 0.31 0.04 0. 0.90 0.10 0.19 0.00 0.59
ABM mid 0.90 0.20 0.60 3.70 0.70 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.101 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.60
ABR mid 0.00 0.40 2.00 3.50 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.501 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
APT 8 0.05 0.10 0.06 >1 0.12 0.30 0.09 0.32 0.27 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00
APT1 4 0.02 0.07 0.051 1.08 0.42 0.221 0.19 0.29 0.21 0.13 0.031 0.10 0.251 0.00
BRM mid 0.00 0.18 2.13 mso msg 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0.00 0.001 1.01 0.00 0.27
BRRE mid 0.05 0.49 1.31 2.74 0.96 1.05 0.42 0.15 0.65 0.04 0.011 0.68 0.00 0.19
BRT mid 0.00 0.02 0.25 1.35 2.84 0.66 0.21 0.11 0.38 0.03 0.001 0.34 0.01 0.06
CLIK mid 0.00 0.10 0.60 4.50 1.60 0.80- 0.30 0.20. 0.30 0.00 0.00-0.00 0.60 0.00
COLK 15 0.00 0.04 0.32. 3.20 2.25 1.05 0.30 msg 0.80 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.48 0.28
ENA 4 0.00 0.02 0.051 0.07 0.59 0.04 0.00 0.47 0.25 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.54 0.02
EXT 17 0.00 0.70 0.251 2.50 4.49 2.60 0.83 0.46 0.85 0.02 0.00 0.75 0.89 0.15
GLC 4 0.07 0.81 2.14 4.86 2.01 1.12 0.32 0.26 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.17
H91E 18 0.00 0.02 0.06 1.56 0.03 0.18 0.07 0.29 0.241 0.10 0.171 0.16 0.11 0.01
HCOV 9 msg msg 0.62 2.75 0.81 0.88 0.08 0.35 0.18 0.16 0.00 0.12 0.28 0.00
HOM mid 0.001 0.30 0.53 0.88 0.16 0.22 0.25 0.17 0.22 0.09 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.04
K9N 7 0.021 0.01 0.12 0.43 0.15 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.42 0.23 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.48
KASI 7 0.02 0.00 0.081 0.55 0.25 0.06 0.001 0.33 0.00 0.33 0.03 0.07 0.50 0.00
KMR mid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.30 0.00- 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.30
LWG 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 3.00 0.80 0.40 0.40 0.20 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.10 1.00
WAS 17 0.00 0.08 0.50 3.50 1.56 1.00 0.69 0.64 0.51 0.04 0.63 0.00 0.72 0.47
MYS 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 1.32 0.171 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.63
PRK mid 0.00 0.96 -3.80 - 6.82 2.72 4.16 0.55 0.20-1.05 0.09 0.01 1.66 0.00 0.84
SILV 7 0.00 0.00 0.101 0.00 0.75 0.51 0.22 0.00 0.09 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00
SWD mid msg msg msg msa .>.84 1.58 0.34 0.26 0.58 0.01. 0.00 1.10 0.39 0.21
SXQ 4 0.00 000 0.03 - 0.001 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.00@ 0.001 0.001 0.06 0.00
ITUT 15 oml a.-- 0.37 s.6ol 2.2ja 1 r..q n. 1.9; 4.pn_ o.na 0-141 0,001 1,271 n nn ___Qad
@
1 '00
0.3 0.20
0
0. 10 0.70
0. 30 0.43

Appendix 11-5

Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations

Obs Time
Site I (Loc Std) 1 09/171 09/18 09/19 09/20 09/21 09/22 09/23 09/24 09/25 09/26 09/27 09/28 09/29 09/30
Kodiak Island and Western Cook I let
5131 21 0.08 0.45 0.39 1.98 0.85 1.00 0.35 0.15 0.45 0.00 0.00- 1.46 0.51 0.05
mid msg 0.21 2.30 0.83 1.01 0.14 0.02 0.11 0.26 0.42. 0.02 0.13 0.00 0.82
CHIN 19 3.44 1.00 2.13 0.97 1.77 0.12. 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.44 msa 0.43 0.00 1.52
INT 18 0.08 0.13 0.15 1.53 1.00 0.42 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.12
Ouz 7 2.16 3.66 0.05 2.45 0.75 0.45 0.08 0.38 0.50 0.37 0.20- 0.06 0.05 0.00
Z30 18 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.62 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00
Matanuska and Knik Basins
5WO 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 2.15 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
AK42 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 1.32 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11
ANDL 7 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.16 0.48 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.1
LSU 7 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.18 0.96 0.15 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.00 msg 0.04 0.03 0.25.
LSUS 4 0.0 0.0 0.0. 0.0 1.0. 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MAES 9 0.00 0.00 0.021 0.34 2.13 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30
8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PAES 9 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.14 1.41 0.01 0.00 0.001 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18
PAQ 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 >.71 >.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 msg
SUT 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 >2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WAS 8 msa 0.02 0.07 0.23 0.92 0.021 msg 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17
WAS3 17 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.40 0.27 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17
Susitna Basin
5HR 16 0.00 0.11 0.25 2.83 1.00 0.37 0.15 0.24 0.09 0.03 0.09 0.07 0.61 0.05
ACR 8 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.61 0.00 -0.11 0.22 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.30 msa
CANT 20 0.00 0.00 0.00. 0.00 0.06 0.03, 0.02 0.03 0.14 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.0@
CLAK 8 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.10 0.57 0.24 0.12 0.22 0.06 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.32
LAK 9 0.00 0.02 0.24 0.15 0.56 0.10 0.06 0.311msg 0.02 0.02 mso msg msg
PTI 16 0.00 0.00 0.06 1.54 0.63 0.07 0.00 0.291 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.09
SKW 16 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.42 0.61 msQ msg msg 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.34 0.00
9 0.00 0.08 0.20 0.03 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.15
TKA 20 msg 0.00 0.16 0.03 0.21 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.24 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.281
0
TML 4 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
K ' I I r
BI
A 7D
CHIN
INT

r
SUS
AES
MAG
S
PAE
PAO

SKW
SUN
FTKA
TML
WIL 8 0.001 0.00 0.22 0.021 0.261 0.001 0.001 0.17 0.061 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001 0.141
WILW 11 n QQ1msq - n 9n 0-051 0-191 0,011 0011 0.11:31 0,001mqg 0.04 msg

Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations
@O,bs TTi 7me7l-
:S:ite:@::: (Loc Std) 09/17 09/18 09/19 09/20 09/21 09/22 09/23 09/24 09/25 09/26 09/27 09/28 09/29 09/30
oDoer River Basin
5GN 17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 1.68 0.32 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13
5PX 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.03
GAK 9 0.00 0.00 0.00- 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.04 0.05 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00
GKN 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 msg 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KCAM 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.28 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
LIKSLI 17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MXY 18 0.001 0.00 0.09 0.09 1.39 0.70 0.32 0.031 0.09 0.00 0.001 0.00 0.03 0.03
TON 7 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 1.32 0.70 0.04 0.06 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05
Prince William Sound and Gulf of laska Coastline
5WT 21 0.00 2.75 1.82 10.92 3.09 2.17 1.06 1.65 2.64 0.26 0.00 1.09 1.96 1.64
CDN 14 0.00 0.00 0.91 2.30 6.02 1.55 0.21 0.80 1.43 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.53
CDV 4 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.29 3.45 0.12 0.06 1.59 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.65
MAIN 10 0.00 1.05 1.32 6.65 3.50 0.90 0.37 1.26 2.79 0.81 0.05 0.00 2.39 1.2
PTSW 12 0.00 0.67 0.22 3.13 1.81 0.63 0.39 0.39 1.23 0.77 0.00 0.12 1.91 0.53
VWS mid msg 0.001 0.161 0.27 0.93 2.43 0.08 0.20 0.51 0.49 0.04 0.00 0.10 0.40
YAK mud msg Q.001 0.111 006 141 5,401 3-4FI 0-00 0-021 O-isl n.00 0,001 0,101 a-Rfi

Appendix 11-7

Table 6 Preliminary Estimates of Flood Recurrance Intervals
Supplied by the U. S. Geological Survey
Water Resources Division

Station Station Name Peak Stage Peak Sept 95 Date of Sept95 Recurrance
Number of Record Discharge of Peak Stage Peak Peak Interval
Record Discharge Estimates

Lowe R nr
XXXXXXXX Valdez 9/21 -19,OW -100 year'

Tiekel R nr
XXXXXXXX Tiekel to be det

Tonsina R at
15208000 Tonsina n.a. 8,400 22.13 9/22 7,000 10 year

Rock Creek nr
15208200 Tonsina. 6.26 225 5.85 9/22 115 10 year

Strelna Cr < mean
15211700 nr Chitina n.a. 670 17.54 9/22 76 annual

O'Brien Cr
15211900 nr Chitina 2.70 1,850 3.91 to be det

Copper R
15212000 nr Chitina 37.30 380,000 28.09 244,000 15-20 year

Boulder Cr
15212500 nr Tiekel 11.72 1,330 10.58 9/22 484 10 year

Copper R
15214000 at Million 48.54 309,000 51.73 9/23 365,000 >100 year

Power Cr
15216000 nr Cordova 7.18 6,060 5.68 9/21 2,680 2 year

Ptarmigan Cr
15212800 trib Valdez n.a. 85 9/22 to be det

Nicolet Cr
15215990 nr Cordova 19.54 940 18.50 -580 <annualpeak

Mineral Cr not peak
15227500 or Valdez n.a. 5,570 13.14 9/22 2,930 ofrecord

Shakespeare
15236200 Cr 12.81 620 15.05 to be det

Appendix 11-8

Station Name Peak Stage Peak Sept 95 Date of Sept 95 Recurrance
Station of Record Discharge of Peak Stage Peak Peak Interval
Number Record Discharge Estimates

Hobo Cr
15236000 nr Whittier 5.14 994 7.90 9/19 2.900b

San Juan R
15237360 nr Seward 9.08 3,930 8.19 9/20 3,810 25 year

Mt. Alice Cr
15237550 nr Seward 18.77 1,340 18.07 9/20 822

Glacier Cr 9.61 9/20 945 <5 year
15237900 at Bruno Rd 15.70 4,200 9.91, 9/24@ 1040

Salmon Cr
15238010 nr Seward n.a. 8,500 9.43 9/20 1610

Rudolph Cr
15238400 at Sewaard unknown 1,020 14.09 9/20 134 2 year

Lowell Or at
15238490 city wells unknown unknown 10.89 1690

Spruce Cr 13.96 13,600 7.29 9/20 2,600 5 year
15238600 nr Seward unknown 5,426

Upper
15238990 Bradley R 13.54 774 15.1 9/20 3,3W >50 year

Middle Fork
15239050 Bradley R 8.53 1,120 8.86 9/20 1,470 >100 year

Fritz Cr
15239500 nr Homer datum 852 10.77 > annualpeak

Anchor nr
15239900 Anchor Pt 7.42 6,050 3.90 1,060 <2 year

Anchor at
15240000 Anchor Pt - 3,030 4.10 1,750 <2 year

Kenai R
15258000 Cooper
Landing 17.18 23,100 16.23 9/23 20,300 25 year'

Kenai at
15266300 Soldoma 13.45 33,700 14.50 9/24 42,300 >100 year

California Cr
15272530 at Girdwood datum 600 16.4 760' >100 year

Appendix 11-9

Station Name Peak Stage Peak Sept 95 Date of Sept 95 Recarrance
Station of Record Discharge of Peak Stage Peak Peak Interval
Number Record Discharge Estimates

Glacier Cr
15272550 at Girdwood 7.90 7,710 6.75 9/20 5,600 <10 year

Ship Cr nr 6.52 inst
15276000 Anchorage 6.38 2,100 7.4 hwrn 9/21 1,890b >50 year
4.74 (old ga.) 1,700

Cub Cr possible peak
15271900 nr Hope 12.09 54 12.90 to be det ofrecord

Eagle R at
15277100 Eagle River 9.49 6,240 11.0 10,300 >500 year

Peters Cr nr
15277410 Birchwood 5.73 1,200 10.4 9/21 5,000 >500 year

EUutna Cr
1528MOO or Palmer k

Knik R nr 25.30' 359,000f 17.6 9/22 152,000 >500 yeae
15281000 Palmer 15.169 84,0009

Matanuska R
15284000 at Palmer 13.60h 82,000h 13.04 9/22 46,000 <100 year

Johnson nr
15294700 Tuxedni Bay 15.0 to be det

Paint R
15294900 Kamishak 14.46 17,400 16.12 9/20 26,300 >100 year

Terror R or
15295700 Kodiak 3.89 2,170d 7.67 9/19 9.7W >100 year d

Kizhuyak R at
15297485 Port Lions 9.19 2,740 11.2 9/19 6,560 15 year

Portage
15272280 Creek 10.69 13,100 10.69 9/20 13,100 15 year

* less than f.--caused by release of stored water (Lake George) behind Knik
* greater than Glacier
- approximately g-excluding glacial breakout floods
n.a. not applicable h-result of a lake breakout
a-computed from regional regressions (Jones and Fahl, 1994) i-result of release of impounded water from an avalanche-debris
b-this value was determined from an indirect measurement of peak dam
flow j.--excluding debris dam breakout
c-floods at this station usually caused by glacier4ake breakouts on k-high water marks flagged and leveled, unable to locate old
the Snow River datum, no further work planned
d-flow regulated I-after Bear Creek diversion into Glacier Creek
_@t
S

Appendix II-10

&'&Vpendix I I I

Damage Reports

Appendix III.1 Introduction

The damage reports given here were compiled from interviews with
and reports by road crews, emergency operations center staff,
Alaska State Troopers, and city government staff.

Appendix 111.2 Cordova and Surrounding Area

Much of this information is courtesty of George Keeny, Cordova
Public Works Department. His phone number is 424-6220. Cordova
received close to 9Y2 inches of rain in 2 days (September 19-20).
Warm temperatures caused the glacier-fed Scott River to rise which
then caused the Eyak River, which drains Eyak Lake, to backup to
levels nearly 6 feet above normal.

other problems caused by the rain and glacial melt due to warm
temperatures were as follows:

Copper River highway

Bridge number 349 Scott River number 2 Some loss of riprap
under the bridge.

Bridge number 351 Scott River number 4 Abutment fill and
riprap washout, pavement failure.

Bridge number 410 Scott River number 10 Some loss of riprap
near the bridge.

Bridge number 230 Sheridan Glacier River - Abutment riprap
washout, both abutments. Wash out of spur dike riprap.

Bridge number 333 Copper River Abutment number I fill washout,
some damage to dike.

Bridge number 334 Copper River Debris on piers.

Bridge 339 - Debris on piers.

Bridge number 340 Copper River Abutment number 1 riprap and
fill washout. Damage to spur dike nose. 2,000 feet of erosion

Appendix III-1

along road fill upstream side.

Bridge 342 - No new damage above that which occurred to east
spur dike this summer. More water is now going back toward 340
and ahead toward 344. Embankment fill is washed out at mile
37.5 between 342 and 344. Debris on piers at 342.

Bridge number 345 Copper River - Debris on piers.

Mile 41-43 - Several surface washouts in low spots. Adjustments
will be made to 37-49 contract now being advertised.

Bridge number 206 Million Dollar Bridge - A false bent, near the
164 earthquake damaged pier 3, which apparently supported, at
least in part, the north end of the 450 foot third span truss,
has been lost. The false bent is now downstream of and
completely free of the superstructure. Existing cracks in the
quake damaged pier appear to have widened. This bridge has been
closed indefinately until structural assessments can be made.

Dayville road bridges - Debris on piers, no other damage noted
at this time.

DOT Future Projects

Scott River Flood Control (George Keeny) - "We had just
completed the Scott River Dike project prior to the September 21
storm. Although the grade of the dike was raised more than 3
feet, the water came to within less than a foot of the top of
the dike. It appears that Scott River is tending to flow more
on the west side (where the dike is) than on the east (toward
the aiport). Further grade raises of the dike are limited by
low steel elevations and hydraulic capacity of the Scott Tiver
bridges. This project must be in close coordination with the
City of Cordova because the Scott River is now causing problems
downstream of the highway where it dumps into, and back up Eyak
River.ff

Additional information via phone conversation with George Keeny
(some of which apparently duplicates above DOT information)
indicated this damage:

7 - 13 mile - Bridge washouts due to high water. Bridge at 8
mile had only asphalt hanging in the air.

Eyak River Flooded the 6 mile and 6 1/2 mile subdivisions.

Eyak Lake Ketchum Air building had 2Y2 - 3 feet of water on

Appendix 111-2

the first level. Six houses had basement flooding. The
Municipal airport was submerged.

Mile 14-16 - IY2 lanes were washed away by the Sheridan Glacier
River. At the 14 mile bridge, one abutment was washed out.

Mile 34-35 - Y2 of a lane was washed out.

Mile 37 - Dykes on either side of the bridge began to wash
away.

Mile 38 - Water over the road washed the road topping off.

Million Dollar Bridge - High water took out one support on the
eastern approach.

Appendix 111.3 Valdez and Surrounding Area

Information supplied by Lynn Chrystal, official in Charge of the
Valdez Weather Service Office.

Valdez received 3.63 inches of rain during the three day period
from September 19-21. Warm temperatures were also cited as
contributing factors to high water levels along glacial fed and
snowmelt fed streams and rivers in the area. Here are Lynn's
comments:

"The rain event of September 20 -21 throughout much of south
central Alaska did not really hit Valdez proper with a lot of
rain. Water levels in Keystone Canyon, however, were the
highest since the big flood of August, 1981.

As the storm unfolded, it looked like Valdez would not receive
the really heavy amounts forecasted for areas around Seward
due to the upper level wind direction (more southeast as
opposed to the really wet south to southwesterlies).

This turned out to be true for the immediate Valdez area, as
rainfall amounts for the three day period ending on the 21st
were 3.63 inches, which is a lot of rain but nothing really
heavy. In fact, just about ten days earlier, we had a stretch
of rain that brought 4.63 inches in four days (7.08 inches in
eight days) with no flooding at all.

The first indication that something more serious was going on
was when Gene Petrescu (a meteorologist intern), was driving
out of Valdez on his way to a new assignment in Montana. Gene

Appendix 111-3

called from Thompson Pass to say that it was really raining
hard all the way from Keystone Canyon to the Pass and that the
river was way up. At the same time, we had less than a tenth
of an inch in town in several hours. About an hour later,
Gene called back and said that the DOT had closed the road at
mile 47 and that he could not get through. He also relayed
that it was still raining hard. This was all taking place
Thursday morning, the 21st.

I then called the River Forecast Center in Anchorage and
brought them up to speed on what was happening just east of
Valdez. They then included Valdez in the flood warnings
already out for much of south central Alaska.

In the flood of 1981, we had a very wet July with 8.96 inches
of water. As we went into August of 1995, we already had high
water levels in the rivers due to the heavier than normal
rain. Warmer than normal temperatures also caused high water
levels due to snow melt in the high country and glacial melt.

In the first 20 days of August, we had over 18 inches or rain,
including 14.44 inches in a ten day stretch (5th - 15th).
This caused a thousand feet of road in the canyon to
completely wash out and also was responsible for heavy damage
in the 40 - 60 mile area of the Richardson Highway. In this
case, the rain we had in Valdez was at least a good indicator
of what was happening just east and north of town.

In this most recent event, this was not the case. We had no
idea a serious problem was developing. Information is lacking
between Valdez and Gulkana. I live just a few feet away from
Mineral Creek, which drains a large canyon just north of
downtown Valdez. Whenever it rains hard, I personally check
it at least twice a day. During this period, the creek was
not anything out of the ordinary, considering the rainfall we
recorded in Valdez, itself.

Based on my past observations (and having witnessed not only
the flood of 1981 but many other rain events since that time),
I concluded that we had some serious rainfall just out of
Valdez, where we have no recording devices. To have water in
Keystone Canyon come up to almost the same level seen in 1981
would require an incredible amount of rain in a short time.

This storm was not only a real rain producer, but was also
very warm and most likely caused by quite a bit of snow melt
in the high country and also considerable glacial melt that
just added to the heavy rainfall.

Appendix 111-4

In the wintertime, when we do get snowfall data at Thompson
Pass from DOT, storms that drop a foot of snow in Valdez will
sometimes drop two to three feet in the Pass. This is not a
hard and fast rule, of course, and without more information on
upper level wind flow into and near the Prince William Sound
area, we will never be able to pinpoint which storms will dump
more rain over that area and not in Valdez itself (the
Middleton Island radar may provide a significant amount of
help in this area). This particular storm was probably like
some of those winter storms that dump heavy snow in Thompson
Pass. In this case, however, because it was all rain with
quick -runoff", the results were more serious."

Lynn also sent back this damage information:

Richardson Highway

Lowe River drainage - Keystone Canyon - Milepost 14 -
15 ... 500+ feet of riprap damage. Some loss of shoulder
material.

Bridge number 557 ... Lowe River lower crossing - Had water on
the superstructure. Richardson Highway closed September 21.
This is not the first time this has occurred. A project to
raise the grade/bridge should be considered. Debris on piers.
Some loss of rock around abutments. 3,000 CY +/- gravel needs
to be excavated from under and downstream of the bridge.

Bridge number 1383 ... Lowe River lower Keystone - Loss of all
remaining rock protection upstream of abutment 1.

Tsaina River drainage

Milepost 33 - River ran along and cut into embankment. Need
for bank protection or finger dikes for 2,000 feet.

Tiekel River drainage

Bridge number 1221 Tiekel River number 1 - Loss or riprap and
abutment fill abutment 1. Pavement removed by maintenance.
Abutment fill has been repaired by M&O.

Milepost 47 - Washout due to creek overflow on Alyeska
pipeline. material and debris deposited on road closed the
Richardson Highway September 21. Erosion of shoulders and

Appendix 111-5

foreslopes. Deposition of debris in ditches. Billy Mitchell
Wayside overrun by flood, erosion and debris.

Milepost 58 - Washout of embankment, no loss of pavement. Cut
bank is approximately 30 feet high and daylights within 10
feet of pavement.

Milepost 60 - Washout of highway including one lane of
pavement. Richardson Highway closed to traffic September 21
22.

Tonsina River drainage

Milepost 76 - Lost 200 feet of bank, need 600 feet of bank
protection.

Edgerton Highway

Milepost 20*.4 - Estimated 320 CY material on road from slide.

Milepost 20.7 - Estimated 400 CY material on road from slide.

Copper River Highway - south of Chitina

Bridge 1306 O'Brien Creek - Abutment sills have scoured and
the cribs have lost all gravel fill. Bridge appears to be in
original position.

Bridge 1307 Haley Creek - Some scour at abutments. River too
high to fully assess.

There are six known mudslides between Fox Creek and Haley
Creek.

Future Projects

Richardson Highway Milepost 45 -79 erosion - More than 15
problem areas and potential problem areas have been identified
by M&O in the Tiekel and Upper Tonsina drainages.

Bridge 557 - Grade raise and/or replacement. The water in
Keystone Canyon came up against the superstructure on
September 21 and also back in 1981. Loss of this bridge would
close the Richardson Highway for an extended period.

Appendix 111-6

Appendix IIIA Knik River and Hunter Creek

This information was compiled through discussions with area
residents and State of Alaska workers who were building a new
bridge across Hunter Creek at the time of the flood.

One resident, who lives just west of the Hunter Creek Bridge,
reported 3% inches of rain in a two day period (probably
September 19-20). He commented,"Who knows how much rain fell in
the surrounding mountains?ff Warm temperatures, which caused
increased glacial melt, were also cited as contributors to high
water levels on Hunter Creek. Several residents mentioned that
these rains were the heaviest rains they had ever experienced in
this location. one local said he had not seen rainfall as hard
or heavy in the area for over 25 years (he was also interested in
any instrumentation the Weather Service might want to place on
his property to monitor either the creek or weather conditions).
These were the highest water levels he had ever seen. Large
trees were washed downstream, lodging in bridge supports. The
fast moving water then scoured out these supports. It did not
take long for the one lane bridge to collapse into the raging
creek. one pickup truck barely escaped the bridge failure. A
reported 27 people were airlifted from the east side of the creek
by National Guard helicopters, including at least 2 hunters whose
vehicle was stranded on the east side of the creek for close to 2
weeks.

Hunter Creek rises sharply upstream from the bridge. There are
apparently two glaciers which feed Hunter Creek. In the past,
there have been slides in the mountainous areas upstream from the
bridge. These created "mini" natural dams. When these dams
break, sometimes due to heavy rainfall, water levels rise sharply
for an hour or two, then fall very quickly. Hunter Creek has had
at least a few "flash" floods in the past from this sequence of
events. The new bridge, which should be finished in the next few
weeks, will be two lanes (as opposed to one on the old one) and
will be constructed in such a way as to greatly diminish the
threat of a washout.

Other problems caused by the rain and glacial melt due to warm
temperatures were as follows:

Just west of the Old Glenn Highway Bridge across the Knik River
was evidence of a new, very large slide, apparently triggered by
these same heavy rains in the mountains. Although the road was
clear and open, it was very apparent that the slide had crossed
the entire road, closing it for a short time.

Appendix 111-7

Gravel and rock also washed down from the mountains during the
heavy rains. These were cleared from the smaller creeks that
drain into the Knik from the mountains to the south. Workers
cleaned fresh gravel out of many of the creeks along the Old Knik
River Road, piling the rocks in stacks close to the road next to
the streams.

Piles of gravel were left along Goat Creek, just upstream along
the Knik from the Eklutna Tailrace.

Appendix 111-8

Appen ix IV
'LL-1

Flood-Incident Lgg

Alaska Department of Emergency Services

The following are excerpts from the Alaska Department of
Emergency Service's Electronic Communications System. The system
is based on a commercial software package called "First Class" to
electronically support composition, storage, and distribution
flood information to selected emergency management organizations.
First Class is essentially an electronic mail type of system.
All dates are in year 1995. Times are in Alaska Standard Time
(24 hour clock).

September 20 14:12 Emergency Operations Center (EOC)

EOC started their flood log.

September 20 15:51 Girdwood

Twenty percent of the roads in the Girdwood area are
impassable because of high water and the backup of water in
the Culverts. Real concern is the next high tide and the
water backing up even farther in the area.

September 20 16:02 Seward

Water is running across 1/4 mile of the Seward Highway 3-6"
deep. Debris is being washed across the road. The water is
going through the rail yard. Port Road is over topped. The
old meal plant building is damaged. Lowell Point bridge is
now completely washed away. The water from the Lowell Creek
area backs up to Rail Road Street and Seward Highway about
1/4 mile. The Institute of Marine Science has had water in
the laboratory.

September 20 16:13 Girdwood

There have been some reports of homes flooding. Public
works is presently trying to fill in the edges of the roads
and bridges with rocks to prevent erosion. Many of the
culverts are stopped up with debris which is causing some
roads to over flow with water. The stream that did cause
some flooding at the school was diverted by public works
personnel; therefore the flooding at the school is no

Appendix IV-1

longer a problem.

September 20 16:45 Girdwood

The main concerns are: 1) The creek that flows off of: the
ski slope has overflowed in the vicinity of the jade shop
and has caused some damage to a few streets and driveways.
2) In the area of the junction of Old Seward and Old
Girdwood when the tide comes in, they may have to move about
100 people.

September 20 16:50 Kodiak

Everything in Kodiak is presently holding. Public works is
monitoring all culverts and retainer walls. They have
cleared several small mud slides behind the retainer walls.
Also a person was swept away from his truck at the American
River. He was rescued.

September 20 17:27 Seward

There is an amateur radio operator standing by there to
assist if needed. His name is Ed, call sign is VE6NH.

September 20 17:33 Seward

This city is experiencing extensive damage to roads and
bridges, flood control dikes and levees, water and sewer
facilities, power and harbor facilities, as well as personal
property and real property.

September 20 17:50 Seward

STATUS REPORT:

Roads closed: Numerous
Bridges closed: Several
Flooded areas: UAF Institute of Marine Science, lagoon,
Army Recreation Camp.
Airport: Closed except for helicopter service.
Potential problems: Lagoon full, Exit Glacier full to
bridge, Japanese Creek at dump, mile 3 Seward Highway.

September 20 18:14 Seward

The ALASCOM fiber between Seward and Anchorage may be
preempted at two points. The circuits current on fiber have
been moved to satellite. HF communications may be the only

Appendix IV-2

way out. INMARSAT may not be available if the DES Team is
not allowed to use the highway into Seward. With the Rural
Television System down, no EBS can be used.

September 20 18:57 Mat Su Valley

One bridge out on Hunter Creek Road Bridge, the approaches
are gone on Knik River Road.

September 20 19:29 Girdwood

Currently one family has been evacuated. Two to three homes
are in danger. Glacier Creek is 61' from breeching it's
banks. It could continue until the Seward Highway becomes
flooded. No known prediction yet. Twenty percent of the
side roads in Girdwood Valley are impassable. Conditions at
Girdwood (16:00) constant 10 to 20 mph winds, rain
increasing again.

September 20 19:52 Seward

Mud slide at mile 16 Seward Highway is clear but water
remains high at river crossing.

September 20 21:53 Seward

PRESS RELEASE--#1

The City of Seward and the Kenai Peninsula Borough continue
to operate under a state of emergency. Several evacuation
orders are in effect. Several area roads remain closed.
Flooding has occurred in numerous areas.

September 21 02:25 Girdwood

22:34 update: Conditions stable, water treatment plant shut
down. Sewage into Glacier Creek. Fire Department officials
report a drop in water level throughout the night.

September 21 03:06 Seward

Seward reports stable conditions.

September 21 03:10 Cooper Landing

Appendix IV-3

Kenai River is bank full, but holding.

September 21 06:29 Seward

Seward reports water level dropping, no significant changes
from last night.

September 21 06:31 Girdwood

Girdwood remains stable.

September 21 07:24 Unknown

Unconfirmed reports of damage to the Alaska Rail Road
facilities. Police department reports possible damage to
bridge. The bridge appears to have structural damage.

September 21 07:46 Whittier

Work being done on bridge outside Whittier today. They are
also working on mud slides at mile 18 and mile 21.

September 21 08:07 All Areas

ETATUS @EPORT - Problem Areas this Mornina after Heavy Rain

Between mile 75 and 83 of the Glenn Highway, continuing
problems with rocks slides due to rain.

Approximately 75 to 100 feet of south bound lane at Knik
River Bridge has almost all been washed out.

Hunter Creek - Palmer/Old Glenn Highway, the creek has
overflowed and washed out.

The Old Glenn Highway at mile 8.5 in Palmer is currently
closed due to mud and rock slides.

The town of Girdwood is still experiencing some other
problems due to the volume of rain.

Girdwood: The state roads are currently open. Crow Creek
Mine Road had a washout last night. Currently it is clear
and open.

The dike outside the town of Seward by Exit Glacier is a
major concern this morning. If the dike does not hold and

Appendix IV-4

breaks, the town could be flooded with at least 4 feet of
water.

The town of Seward has had over 9 inches of rain since
Tuesday. Mile 3 of the Seward Highway is currently closed.

September 21 09:14 Seward

Alaska State Troopers report the dike above town in Seward
has broken; Helo 1 will be tied up evacuating people.

September 21 09:18 Palmer - Knik

At 08:19, Alaska State Troopers received a report that road
north of Hunter Creek was flooding.

The river is reportedly rising at 1 foot per hour. If this
continues, an immediate flooding problem could occur.

September 21 09:24 Seward

Confirmed ... Exit Glacier dike had broken and the Bear Creek
Fire Department was evacuating the Camelo subdivision.

September 21 09:58 Knik

Peters Creek Bridge on the Old Glenn Highway is collapsing.
The road is being barricaded.

September 21 10:21 Knik

The Hunter Creek bridge has been lost. The bridge has
dropped about five feet today.

September 21 10:33 Mat Su Valley

Mile 90 of the Glenn Highway (Cascade Creek), water reported
over 2/3rds of the highway, eroding ditch and washing out
the highway.

Severe erosion problems exist along the bridges as well as
power poles.

September 21 11:01 Seward

Rolf Bardarson reports his home is threatened by flood
waters.

Appendix IV-5

September 21 11:32 Kodiak

No flood problems at Kodiak.

September 21 11:36 Seward

11:44: Old Mill subdivision at mile 8 Seward Highway was
also evacuated as a result of the Box Canyon levy breaking.

September 21 11:36 Eagle River

Report that the Eagle River Camp Ground was flooding.

September 21 12:04 Moose Pass

Moose Pass School is shut down and water is running through
the school.

September 21 12:22 Girdwood

Girdwood creeks were going down. Maintenance workers are
shoring Aleyeska Bridge. The Old Glenn Highway is closed
because the Peters Creek Bridge is out.

September 21 12:27 Kenai

Field report from Kenai Keys indicates water 1211 deep in
places with some roads covered. Water entering some cabins.

September 21 12:4S Seward

STATUS REPORT - Seward Plood Repor

Current Threats:
Wash out of Box Canyon Levy. Sewer Lagoon may have flooded.

Public Facilities:
Alaska Railroad-one bridge out.
School closed
Waterfall Bridge is out.
Seward Harbor silting up
Seward Airport partially flooded

Roads and Highways:

Numerous highways flooded and some bridges out.

Appendix IV-6

September 21 12:51 Seward

The northeast side of the ramp at Port Avenue and Harbor
road has a large washout 6-8' deep, 200' wide and 800, long.
The Lowell Creek Tunnel water flow has removed the abutment
and access on both sides of the bridge. The bridge is
severely damaged and may need to be replaced.

September 21 12:53 Skwentna

Alaska State Troopers report the Skwentna River was flooding
in Skwentna. River has risen 9-10 feet since yesterday.
Also 2 feet in the last 2 hours. Waters is 2 feet from the
airport and has surrounded the school. Several roads have
flooded. Worse than the 1986 flood.

September 21 14:08 Girdwood

Culvert failure is on Crow Creek Road. Bridge abutment
damage at Glacier Creek.

September 21 14:30 Knik

The Hunter Creek 77 foot bridge is now a 100 foot gap.
Water is about 4 feet below the ARR bridge and over the
highway. The windsong subdivision is impacted and there is
water close to the houses.

September 21 14:47 Knik

Alaska State Troopers--the Old Glenn Highway has been closed
at the Knik River bridge as of 14:30 Thursday due to high
water and flooding.

September 21 14:48 Knik

Palmer alternate is closed due to high water. Vehicles are
stalling.

September 21 15:17 Eagle River

Tom Brooks of the Alaska Railroad stated the temporary Eagle
River bridge above the railroad trestle was in danger of
washing away.

September 21 15:35 Seward

SEWARD HIGHWAY --STATUS REPORT

Appendix IV-7

1 Mile ... approximately 12 to 14 inches of water OVer the top
of the Seward Highway for approximately 1,000 feet. There
did not appear to be any damage to the highway surface. The
city of Seward closed the highway to regular traffic at Nash
Road and the northern most access road to the Seward small
boat harbor. There was some loss of material at the
shoulder.

The airport ... the long runway is under water. Minimal
damage is estimated. The approach to Cemetery Road bridge
was washed out.

September 21 15:51 Seward

Crow Creek Road, there has been damage and the culvert has
been removed.

September 21 17:34 Eagle River

The Eagle River, Fort Richardson lower bridge has sustained
major damage; it appears that the bridge will fail within a
short time.

September 21 22:55 Girdwood

Glacier Creek area, the bridge and creek bank were/are in
jeopardy.

September 21 22:37 Mat Su Valley

Knik River Road north of Hunter Creek cut off due to loss of
bridge. Knik River Road at mile 2 is underwater. Old Glenn
Highway at Knik River bridge under water. Highway is
currently closed. Skwentna Townsite mostly under water.

September 22 01:50 Seward

The Snow Glacier dam has not broken.

September 22 02:00 Valdez

Valdez Police report at 01:30, Richardson Highway closed at
mile 12. High water in area.

September 22 02:03 Cordova

Cordova Police report at 01:45, water is high and some

Appendix IV-8

families have left homes. Airfield in town is closed.

September 22 03:49 Seward

Seward reports water level dropping in most areas. Japanese
Creek is still a problem. Most roads are open.

September 22 03:52 Kenai

Kenai reports that water is still rising but has not caused
evacuation or loss of services yet. There is a small
landslide on the Sterling Highway (milepost unknown).

September 22 05:55 All Areas

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

The area from Seward to Moose Pass has suffered extensive
flooding. Flooding in Seward and Bear Creek has stablizied.

Roads and Highways
Mostly open a couple washed out and closed.

Public Facilities
Alaska Railroad -- Substantial damage sustained; service to
Seward suspended indefinitely.

Seward Airport -- Debris on runways, closed to aircraft,
open to helicopters.

Waterfall Bridge -- out.

Residential Areas
Crown Point and Moose Pass -- flooding
Old Mill subdivision -- threatened by flooding

Current Threats
Accumulated silt in northeast basin may shift into small
boat harbor. Kenai Lake is very high and Trail Lake at
Moose Pass is rapidly rising. Glacier Creek and Lost Creek
continue to rise.

September 22 07:13 Eagle River

Both bridges crossing Eagle River on Fort Richardson were
damaged, but had not washed away during the night.

Appendix IV-9

September 22 07:34 Palmer/Skwentna

The Mat Su EOC is staffed beginning at 06:00 today.

September 22 07:54 Kenai

PRESS RELEASE-#

All three areas (Cooper Landing, Kenai Keys, and Soldotna)
are above flood stage. Persons living along the river and
streams in the affected areas are urged to remain alert and
take appropriate precautions. Estimated times that the
Kenai River will crest are as follows:
Cooper Landing Early Friday
Kenai Keys Mid to Late Friday
Soldotna Saturday

September 22 08:43 Seward

The Alaska Railroad stated they have five places of
significant damage on the tracks and up to 24 places they
will need to do maintenance repairs. The major problem is
Moose Pass. It is under water at this time with no real
prediction as to when the water will go down.

September 22 . 10:22 Valdez/Glennallen

Call from Division of Forestry. Reported an individual from
mile 78.5 of the Richardson Highway (Bernard Creek area)
reported flooding down a road that leads to about 6 homes.

September 22 10:58 Palmer/Seward

Call from Alaska Railroad. They have concerns about Knik
River rail bridge receiving damage from high water and
debris collecting above the bridge and causing damage. Tom
Brook wanted specific information on weather service
hydraulics. Gave him Art Armour's (Alaska RFC) number at
the National Weather Service. He was also concerned about
high water in Moose Pass.

September 22 11:05 Valdez/Glennallen

Situation is Bernard Creek is now running down the private

Appendix IV-10

drive which leads to 6 homes. One cabin has been damaged.

September 22 11:10 Seward

ALASKA RAXLROAD STATUS REPOR

From mile post 3.5 to mile post 75 there are numerous
reports of flooding and debris affecting bridges, culverts,
and undercutting track bed. Eight bridges are being
impacted.

September 22 12:15 Cordova

Mayor Margy Johnson reports that the Scott River Glacier
drainage is causing-flooding conditions. There are about 40
families affected. DOT has closed the Copper River Highway,
and are working on a road washout at mile 4.

September 22 12:28 Valdez/Glennallen

Received call from the DNR concerning Bernard Creek area at
mile 78.5 of the Richardson Highway. The creek has changed
channels and has taken the road as its main channel. This
is caused by log jams at the beginning of the road.

September 22 12:44 Seward

SEWARD FLOOD STATUS REPORT

As of 10:45

Overall Assessment
The area from Seward to Mosse pass has suffered extensive
flooding. Flooding in Seward and Bear Creek has stablizied
and local government is beginning to make damage
assessments. Most evacuees have returned to their homes.

Roads and Highways
Most roads are open. Several however remain closed due to
flooding.

Public Facilities
Alaska Railroad--substantial damage sustained. Service to
Seward is suspended indefinitely.
Seward Airport--Closed to aircraft, open to helicopters.
Moose Pass School--closed.
Waterfall bridge--out.

Appendix IV-11

Other facilities--several affected.

Residential Areas
Several affected, some evacuation continues.

Current Threats
Crown point, Moose Pass, Old Mill subdivision, Exit Glacier
Road, Resurrection Road, and Meridian Park subdivision.

September 22 12:49 Skwentna

The Skwenta River has risen more since yesterday. Also many
more families up the Yetna River are evacuating.

September 22 13:05 Valdez

The city manager stated the dikes along the lower river held
overnight and they had no problems.

September 22 13:20 Whittier

Department of Public Safety reported some damage to the DoD
fuel tank farm. Also reported was damage to the vehicle
bridge that goes to the farm. Some of the pilings are
washed out.

September 22 14:17 Kenai EOC

Flooding continues in the Kenai Keys area, some roads under
water. Also, flooding in Big Eddy and Poachers Cove.

September 22 15:02 Richardson Highway mile 60

Trooper made a rescue of an individual up Falls Creek. The
individual had spent two days in a front-end loader in the
middle of the creek. Individual had vacated his travel
trailer which was located in the old creek bed and jumped to
the front-end loader.

September 22 15:49 Kenai EOC

PRESS RELEASE #4

Kenai River
Water continues to rise. Roads to Kenai Keys are flooded
and other roads are threatened. Rivers are expected to
crest Friday noon in Cooper Landing area; later Friday in

Appendix IV-12

Kenai Keys. Rate of rise has slowed, but water is spreading
more than rising at this point.

Seward Area
Blooding continues in low-lying areas and many roads have
been damaged or have water over the road. Bridges may have
suffered damage. Rain is light and water in flooded areas
has begun to gradually recede. No further rise is expected,
but water may spread further.

September 22 16:09 Richardson Highway mile 78.5

Local logging company diverted creek back into the original
channel.

September 22 16:09 Fort Richardson Armory

Power outage.

September 22 16:16 Benard Creek (Richardson highway)

Lower Benard Creek overflowing at mile 79 and it was over
flowing the Tonsina Airstrip through the Tonsina Lodge: some
small buildings damaged and driveway damage.

September 22 17:10 Fort Richardson Armory

Power restored. Reason for the outage is unknown.

September 22 18:47 Seward

STATUS REPORT--SEWARD FLOOD (as of 1300 hours)

Resurrection River continues to rage and is making new
channels adjacent to the airport and in the industrial area.
Kenai Lake and Trail Lake are very high. Glacier Creek and
Lost Creek continue to rise.

September 22 21:11 Kenai Pen Borough

"Declaration of Local Disaster Emergency" in the Kenai river
and Snow river drainages and the Kenai lake area (including
Moose Point, Crown Point, and Cooper Landing)

September 23 10:46 Seward

Appendix IV-13

Seward Flood Status Report (as of 0900 hrs):
Flooding from Seward to Moose Pass has stabilized.
Resurrection river continues to rage and is making new
channels adjacent to the airport and in the industrial area.
Upper Kenai Lake still very high.

September 23 13:08 Windsong subdivision (mile 5 Old
Glenn)

Received approximately 2 feet of water throughout the area.
Septic systems and holding tanks have failed. Raw sewage in
the ditches.

September 23 13:09 Kenai EOC

PRESS RELEASE-#

Kenai River levels continue to rise. Checks at Moose Range
Meadows Subdivision, Soldotna Creek Park, Poacher's Cove,
and Riverbend show a rise of about 6 inches between 10 PM
Friday night and 5 AM Saturday morning.

September 23 14:25 Valdez

Some flooding reported in the Alpine Woods subdivision (mile
10 Richardson Highway), which is mostly mobile homes. They
are experiencing 18 to 24 inches of water from the Lowe
River.

September 23 15:34 Kenai EOC

PRESS RELEASE--#

The Kenai River is expected to crest today. The river has
crested at Cooper Landing at 16.08 feet. The river crested
at noon in Kenai Keys at 15,3 feet. The river is expected
to crest in the Soldotna area at 2 PM at 14.3 feet.

September 23 15:42 Kenai EOC

News Release
The Kenai Peninsula Borough Emergency Management Office has
issued evacuation for the following areas: Kenai Keys,
Poacher's Cove, Riverside Campground, Big Edd Road area,
west of Salmon Run drive, Birch Circle, Salmon Run Drive,
and Aurora Court.

September 23 19:28 Skwentna and Yetna Rivers

Appendix IV-14

A private pilot called in with a report of the Skwenta and
Yetna River area as of 1500. He reports the Skwenta airport
is open to light aircraft, but the lights are out and the
non-directional beacon is out. The Yetna River is over the
banks and the Skwenta River is over the banks at about 20
miles west of Skwentna. The rest of the river appeared
extremely high.

September 24 08:22 Anchorage EOC

Situation Update
The river levels at Cooper Landing have drooped 3 to 4
inches as of 4 AM this morning. Kenai Keys level rose from
15.37 at 1 AM to 15.44 at 7 AM. Overflights of Skwentna to
upper Yetna shows water level dropping slowly.

September 24 08:35 Kenai River

Kenai river levels at Cooper Landing have dropped from 3 to
4 inches from midnight to 0400 this morning. In the Kenai
Keys area the water level rose from 15.37 at I am to 15.44
at 7 am.

September 24 09:52 Windsong Subdivision

Area inspected, found no immediate health hazard. Some
yards have suffered sewage holding tank overflow, which can
be treated by spreading lime.

September 24 12:42 Eagle River and Raven Creek

Damage to trail system and day use cabins estimated at $2 M.

September 25 11:26 Eagle River (south fork)

Bridge collapsed. (Washed out a couple of minutes later.)
(It was later determined that this bridge located on a
private road and was privately owned.)

September 25 15:15 Seward

They have lost 200' of embankment protecting the north side
of the runway. They have no rip-rap and are tearing up
sidewalks to re-establish the embankment.

September 25 16:20 Kenai River

Kenai River level dropping in Kenai Keys area.

Appendix IV-15

September 26 07:22 Anchorage

Plans for Lt. Governor to visit damage site in Kenai,
Soldotna, and Seward.

September 26 09:12 Kenai Pen Borough

PRESS RELEASE--#13

Alaska Governor Tony Knowles in Washington D.C. is scheduled
to meet later this week with Senator Ted Stevens regarding a
possible federal disaster declaration for flood damaged
communities. Lt. Governor Fran Ulmer will be traveling to
the Kenai Peninsula to inspect flood damage on Tuesday,
September 26, 1995.

September 26 10:41 Anchorage

Two helicopters departed (one for press and one for Lt.
Governor)

September 26 13:21 Kenai

Lt. Governor departed Soldotna en route to Seward aboard
Black Hawk helicopters.

September 26 14:34 Benard Creek

(78.5 Richardson Highway) Damage IA

September 26 14:39 Seward

Lt. Governor landed

September 26 15:23 Benard Creek and the Tosina River

The locals made a dike to protect their homes.
Approximately 6 homes damaged in the area.

September 26 15:41 Benard Creek

Martin Mirical reports they hauled 100 yards of material to
dike the creek. The water is going down.

September 26 15:53 Seward

The first aircraft with the press is departing Seward at
1600 hours. The second aircraft with the Lt. Gov. Will

Appendix IV-16

depart approximately 20 minutes later.

September 26 15:55 Washington D.C.

Senator Stevens expresses concern for Kenai Flooding in
Senate statement.

September 26 16:04 Seward

Both aircraft are en route to Anchorage.

September 26 18:19 Girdwood

Coliform bacteria is spreading in Class A public wells.

September 26 21:15 Homer

3.5 earthquake, no damage reported.

September 27 07:39 Girdwood

Downed power poles and transformer problems.

September 27 08:23 Skwentna

Downed power poles and transformer problems.

September 27 09:16 Girdwood

Creek threatening airport.

September 27 20:24 EOC

Damage reports: Diamond Willow sub division one house off
foundation, Cooper Landing three houses and one business
with minor damage, and Poachers Cove 21 houses and 8
businesses with minor damages, one house and four businesses
with major damage.

September 27 20:55 EOC

Reports from Girdwood, Moose Pass, and Seward have very
little observable IA damage, but extensive PA damage. Knik
team did not find extensive 1A damage, however there was
extensive minor damage to homes , businesses, and rentals in
Skwentna.

Appendix IV-17

September 28 11:11 Kenai-Soldotna

Soldotna EOC issues Flood Status Report.

September 28 11:44 Cordova

City of Cordova issues a "Declaration of Emergency".

September 28 18:07 Moose Pass

Alaska Pioneer Museum at Mile 30 (right on highway) has
flooded, washed out footing of foundation in back of
building.

September 29 11:50 Matanuska-Susitna Borough

Issued an "Amended Disaster Declaration".

September 29 12:32 Mat-Su

Temporary bridge opened up at Hunter Creek. Contracted out
a replacement bridge, which will be done in 3 to 4 weeks.

September 29 13:18 Juneau

Statement by Alaska State Legislature.

September 29 16:35 Kenai Pen. Bour.

"Declaration of Local Disaster Emergency"

September 29 17:56 Juneau

"Amendment to Declaration of Disaster Emergency"

September 30 15:07 EOC

Damage report: several areas.

October 04 13:08 EOC

Incident Status Summary.

October 18 11:10 RFC

Statement by Jerry Nibler: Skilak Glacier dammed lake had
released about 25% of its releasable contents.

Appendix IV-18

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