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            FLOOD REPORT
            South Central Alaska Floods

            September 19 - October 2,1995


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     1996









                                                                              Foreword


                 The Alaska Region of the National Weather Service has broad
                 Federal responsibility to provide public forecasts and warnings
                 of weather and river conditions in Alaska. These services are
                 for the protection of life and property and in support of
                 Alaska's commerce.


                 The Alaska Region conducts surveys of significant natural
                 disasters in Alaska to thoroughly assess the performance of its
                 warning system in all aspects, from data collection and
                 assimilation through creation and dissemination of products and,
                 ultimately, effective customer response. This report of the
                 flood survey team's findings regarding the damaging floods of
                 south central Alaska in September and October 1995 identifies
                 opportunities to improve the NWS's weather and flood warning
                 system, not only in the affected area but throughout the Nation.

                 I express the special gratitude of the Alaska Region to the
                 Federal, state, and local officials and media representatives in
                 Alaska who helped the surve team,



                 Richard Hutcheon
                 Regional Director
                 Alaska Region
                 National Weather Service













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                                                                                     Foreword
          Le,4                                              US Department of Commerce
                                                            NOAA Coastal Services Center Library
                                                            2234 South Hobson Avenue
           C.0
                                                            Charleston, SC 29405-2413








                          Flood Survey Team

       The Alaska Region Director formed a flood survey team immediately
       after the last south central Alaska flood warning was canceled on
       October 2, 1995. The team spent the next several months
       gathering information and data from within the National Weather
       Service and meeting with the customers of the National Weather
       Service. One of the primary customers during the flood event was
       the emergency management organization consisting of the Alaska
       Division of Emergency Services and the Emergency Services in the
       Kenai and Matanuska-Susitna Boroughs. These meetings also gave
       the team the opportunity to interview representatives of the
       public and the media.

       The team also visited several flood impacted locations which
       visually confirmed impacts of the flood and allowed the team to
       interview residents.


       Everyone with whom the team met stressed the importance of timely
       and fresh forecast and warning information in their life and
       work.


       The flood survey team was composed of:

       James E. Kemper, Chief, Environmental and Scientific Services
       Division of the Alaska Region,

       Larry A. Rundquist, Development and Operations Hydrologist at the
       Alaska River Forecast Center,

       David B. Goldstein, Warning and Coordination Meteorologist at the
       Anchorage Weather Service Forecast Office,

       Gregory E. Matzen, Public and Warning Program Manager at the
       Alaska Region,

       Jeff E. Perry, Service Hydrologist at the Anchorage Weather
       Service Forecast Office,

       J. Neal Marchbanks, Radar Program Manager for the Alaska Region.

       The team acknowledges Pat Claar, secretary of the Environmental
       and Scientific Services Division, for ably providing essential
       clerical and staff assistance to the team.



                   pe
        4es     Kem
            Leader



                                  Survey Team








                          Executive Summary

        Persistent, southerly, warm, moist flow over south central Alaska
        from mid- to late-September 1995 produced heavy rain of up to 21
        inches in a 4 day stretch. The rain was orographically focused
        along the Chugach-Kenai mountains, the Alaska Range, and the
        mountains around Valdez and Cordova.


        Extensive flooding occurred in south central Alaska from
        September 19 to October 2 in response to the rain and flow
        pattern.  No loss of life or serious injury were directly
        attributable to the flooding, but property damage totals
        approached 10 million dollars. The flooded areas were declared a
        federal disaster area.


        A National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region flood response
        assessment team conducted a disaster survey immediately after the
        flooding subsided. The survey included visits to the Kenai,
        Matanuska-Susitna, Girdwood, and Knik locations impacted by the
        flooding.

        A summary of the major findings of the survey are:

        (1) The Anchorage Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) provided
        forecasts of heavy precipitation 5 days in advance of the onset
        of the flooding. Forecasts of general precipitation amounts were
        also provided during the flooding period. The development of
        quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) will provide better
        support to flood forecasting.

        (2) The Alaska River Forecast Center (RFC) issued timely,
        extensive, and informative flood statements, watches, and
        warnings. Lead times for flood warnings were as much as 17 hours
        at specific locations.


        (3) The new WSR-88D doppler radar, a technology part of the NWS
        modernization, installed near Kenai indicated the dramatic
        orgraphic focusing of the heavy precipitation. High resolution
        precipitation patterns were available for the first time to the
        Anchorage forecasters and hydrologists. The Storm Total
        Precipitation product illustrated the significant impact the
        radar will have on forecast and warning operations during heavy
        precipitation events. Operational radar and precipitation gauge
        network improvements to compensate for orographic beam blocking,
        freezing level contamination, and precipitation amount biases in
        Alaska are recommended.


                               Executive Summary - 1










            (4) Some residents in the affected areas did not receive the NWS
            flood product infox7nation because of slow or inadequate
            dissemination processes. Those that did receive the infoxnation
            did not always recognize the threat because of a lack of
            historical infox7nation upon which to base a response. improved
            outreach and preparedness programs can improve the response.


            (5) There was frequent interaction during the flooding between
            the NWS forecast and warning operations and the state emergency
            service agencies. However, the infox7nation flow and pathways
            between these two vital hazard response organizations needs
            modernizing to take advantage of advances in communications
            technologies. There also needs to be a better mutual
            understanding of the operating procedures in both the NWS and the
            emergency service agencies. Frequent contact is necessaxy to
            improve the operating relationships between the two hazard
            response groups.


            Several new positions associated with the NWS modernization have
            recently been put in place at the Anchorage WSFO and RFC. These
            new positions should respond significantly to the recommendations
            from this report.

            The Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) position at the
            Anchorage WSFO was filled in 1994. This is a new NWS
            modernization position at each WSFO. The responsibilities of the
            WCM include developing and maintaining the flood warning and
            preparedness program. The WCM position is recognized in the NWS
            as vital to a vigorous and healthy warning/preparedness program.

            The Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) is another NWS
            modernization position recently filled at the RFC. The DOH teams
            with the WCM in the area of flood warning and preparedness.

            A Service Hydrologist was added to the staff at the Anchorage
            WSFO in 1994. The Service Hydrologist is responsible for
            developing and maintaining hydrologic operations at the WSFO by
            (1) training WSFO forecasters in hydrologic operations, (2)
            developing and maintaining a hydrologic observing network and the
            flow of data from the network into the WSFO, and (3) developing
            and maintaining the WSFO hydrologic service program. The Service
            Hydrologist had completed most of the training required for the
            position at the time of the flood and was just starting to have
            an impact on the WSFO hydrologic operations.

            The new Science and operations Officer (SOO) at the WSFO was
            filled in 1994. The SOO is responsible for training and


                                  Executive Summary - 2










       integrating new meteorological and hydrologic scientific
       developments into operations. The SOO can provide a major
       contribution toward developing a successful QPF program and
       training forecasters in the hydrologic program.

       The findings and recommendations in this flood report will serve
       as a target of significant opportunity and focus for the WCMs,
       the Service Hydrologists, the DOH, and the SOOs in the Alaska
       Region. They can also greatly assist in improving the linkages
       with the emergency services agencies.

       There has already been a response to some of the recommendations
       because of the assessment team's visits to the Alaska Division of
       Emergency Services and the Kenai/Matanuska-Susitna Borough
       emergency service groups. The groups submitted flood mitigation
       plans for funding to the Federal Emergency Management
       Administration. These plans have included some of the team's
       recommendations, such as funding the purchase and installation of
       NOAA Weather Radio transmitters, precipitation gauges, and river
       gauges.








































                             Executive Summary - 3









                        TABLE OF CONTENTS




       Executive Summary



       Table of Contents



       Acronymns and Abbreviations



       Chapter I      Findings and Recommendations



       Chapter II     Description and Impact of Floods



       Chapter III    Meteorological Summary



       Chapter IV     Hydrological Summary



       Chapter V      WSR-88D Radar Performance



       Chapter VI     Flood Preparedness



       Chapter VII    Warning Services



       Chapter VIII   Dissemination



       Appendix I     Flood Event Chronology and Products



       Appendix II    Tables/Figures



       Appendix III   Damage Reports



       Appendix IV    Alaska Division of Emergency Services Event Log









                ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

       ADES            Alaska Division of Emergency Services
       AKRFC           Alaska River Forecast Center
       AMOS            Automatic Meteorological Observing System
       AP              Associated Press
       APS             Alaska Products Service
       ARR             Alaska Railroad
       ARONET          Alaska Region Operations Network
       ASOS            Automatic Surface Observing System
       ATWC            Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
       AVN             Aviation Numerical Weather Prediction Model
       AWIPS           Advanced Weather Information Processing System
       AWL             Alaska Weather Line (800 toll free)
       AWOS            Automatic Weather Observing System
       BLM             Bureau of Land Management
       CFS             Cubic Feet Per Second
       CY              Cubic Yard
       DOH             Development and Operations Hydrologist
       DOT             Department of Transportation
       EAS             Emergency Alerting System
       EBS             Emergency Broadcast System
       ECS             Electronic Communications System
       EOC             Emergency Operations Center
       ESIS            Emergency Services Information System
       ESSD            Environmental and Scientific Services Division
       FAA             Federal Aviation Administration
       FEMA            Federal Emergency Management Administration
       GMS             Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
       GOES            Geostationary Observational Environmental
                       Satellite
       HAS             Hydrometeorology Analysis and Support
       HSA             Hydrologic Services Area
       HMD             Hydrometeorological Discussion
       hPa             Hecta Pascal
       ICS             Incident Command System
       KPB             Kenai Peninsula Borough
       LEPC            Local Emergency Planning Committee
       M&O             Maintenance and Operations
       MIC             Meteorologist-in-Charge
       Mat-Su          Matanuska-Susitna
       MSL             Mean sea level
       NAWAS           National Warning System
       NCEP            National Centers for Environmental Prediction
       NGM             Nested Grid Numerical Weather Prediction Model
       NM              Nautical Mile
       NMC             National Meteorological Center
       NOAA            National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
       NWR             NOAA Weather Radio
       NWS             National Weather Service











            NWWS            NOAA Weather Wire Service
            PTA             Parent Teacher Association
            QPF             Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
            RAMOS           Remote Automated Meteorological Observing
                            System
            RATNET          Rural Area Television Network
            RFC             River Forecast Center
            SAWRS           Supplemental Aviation Weather Reporting Station
            Soo             Science and Operations Officer
            USCG            United States Coast Guard
            USGS            United States Geological Survey
            UPS             Uninterruptable Power Supply
            UTC             Universal Coordinated Time
            WCM             Warning Coordination Meteorologist
            WSO             Weather Service Office
            WSFO            Weather Service Forecast office
            WSR-88D         Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler











                                  CHAPTER I


                      Findings and Recommendations




       I.1       Introduction


       A NWS Alaska Region flood response assessment team was formed
       shortly after the September 20-October 2 1995 flooding period.
       The assessment included visits to the Kenai, Matanuska-Susitna,
       Girdwood, and Knik locations impacted by the flooding. The team
       met with emergency services groups, including the Alaska Division
       of Emergency Services (ADES), the Kenai Peninsula Borough
       Emergency Services, the Girdwood Emergency Operations Center
       (EOC), and the Matanuska-Susitna (Mat-Su) Borough Emergency
       Services.


       The team reviewed the flood response activities of the NWS and
       the interaction between the emergency services groups and the
       NWS. They especially reviewed the dissemination of NWS products
       to the ADES, to the emergency services in the Boroughs and EOCs,
       and to residents in south central Alaska. The team also
       discussed the flow of flood reports and information back to the
       NWS.


       The following Findings and associated Recommendations are the
       result of the assessment. There has already been a response to
       some of the recommendations because of the assessment team's
       visits to the ADES and the Kenai/Mat-Su Borough emergency service
       groups. The groups submitted flood mitigation plans for funding
       to the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA). These
       plans have included some of the recommendations given below, such
       as funding the purchase and installation of NOAA Weather Radio
       (NWR) transmitters, precipitation gauges, and river gauges.

       In general, any activities in response to the recommendations are
       noted within the recommendations below.



       1.2       Findings and Recommendations


       The Findings and Recommendations are identified by Chapter number
       in Roman numerals and a sequential number beginning with I for
       the first finding in a Chapter. When there is more than one
       recommendation for a finding, an addition sequential number is
       appended to the first sequential number in the recommendation.



                   Findings and Recommendations: Chapter I-1












           Finding IV.1


           Additional river stage and precipitation gauge data in Alaska,
           especially in the area impacted by this flood event, would
           improve river level forecasts.


           Recommendation IV.1.1


           General locations where precipitation gauges are required: (1)
           the Kenai Mountains south of the Kenai River, (2) the western
           Susitna River basin, and (3) along the Richardson Highway between
           Valdez and the Alaska Range.

           Specific locations for automated precipitation gauges on the
           Kenai Peninsula in the vicinity of rivers are recommended:

                 (1) Near the Cooper Lake project where two non-automated
                     precipitation gauges already exist, one of which needs
                     telemetry,
                 (2) Near the prison in Seward,
                 (3) Near Bradley Lake, and
                 (4) With the existing Cooper Landing river gauge where
                     telemetry already exists,

                 Note (1): The purchase and installation of automated
                 precipitation gauges at these 4 locations has been
                 included in the Kenai Borough's Flood mitigation Plan
                 submitted to the FEMA for funding.


           In the western Susitna basin:


                 (1) At Rainy Pass Lodge,
                 (2) At Hayes River Lodge,
                 (3) At Judd and/or Hiline Lakes,
                 (4) At Midway Lakes,
                 (5) At Chelatna Lake Lodge, and
                 (6) Near Peters Creek on Petersville Road,

           Along the Richardson Highway:

                 (1) At Thompson Pass, and
                 (2) Near Lake Louise, Susitna Lake, or Tyone Lake.





           Recommendation iv.1.2


                       Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-2










       Automated stream gauges, coordinated with the USGS, are
       recommended at the following sites:

             (1)  Kenai River below Skilak Lake,
             (2)  Kenai River at Kenai Keys (rating development),
             (3)  Kenai River at Soldotna (automate existing site),
             (4)  Grouse Creek at canyon mouth,
             (5)  Spruce Creek (automate existing site),
             (6)  Lowell Creek below tunnel, and
             (7)  Snow River at highway bridge (rating development).

             Note  (2): The purchase and installation of automated
             stream gauges at these 7 locations has been included in
             the Kenai Borough's Flood Mitigation Plan submitted to
             the FEMA for funding.



       Finding IV.2

       Precipitation and other meteorological data from several key
       locations are not available in real-time. Valuable data from
       cooperative observers are recorded daily, but not available to
       forecast operations until after the end of the month through the
       mail.


       Recommendation IV.2


       The cooperative observations should be brought into the real-time
       operations as much as possible. This calls for a simple data
       entry and electronic information pathway for cooperative
       observations into NWS operations. Automated processing (decoding
       and database posting) of the cooperative observations is required
       once they are collected to provide forecast operations with
       efficient access to the data.




       Finding V.1


       The precipitation generating the flood event was highly
       influenced by the orography in south central Alaska. The
       existing precipitation gauge network did not accurately reflect
       the location and amount of precipitation. The WSR-88D radar at
       Kenai was an extremely powerful alternative to precipitation
       gauges for estimating quantitative precipitation amounts and
       location. The heaviest amounts in the radar data were over the
       Chugach/Kenai mountains and the eastern slopes of the Alaska
       Range.



                    Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-3









            Precipitation gauges are necessary to calibrate the WSR-88D radar
            precipitation estimates, especially for significant precipitation
            amounts over the mountains, as in this flood event. The location
            of any new precipitation gauges must take into account the
            surrounding orography and beam elevation characteristics.


            Recommendation V.1


            New automated precipitation gauges should be located to optimally
            support the WSR-88D estimation of precipitation location and
            amount. Several specific locations have been identified for the
            Kenai radar:


                  (1) The eastern intersection of the Skilak Lake road and
                      the Sterling Highway. This is in a gap area just
                      inside the western slopes of the mountains where little
                      if any beam blockage occurs.

                  (2) North of Seward: one near Woodrow, and one near Exit
                      Glacier. These are in an area where only partial beam
                      blockage occurs.

                  (3) On the proposed Skilak Lake Outlet USGS river gauge
                      platform. This would be in an area before the
                      mountains and with no beam blockage.

                  Note (3): The purchase and installation of automated
                  precipitation gauges selected locations has been included
                  in the Kenai Borough's Flood mitigation Plan submitted to
                  the FEMA for funding.



            Finding VI.1


            Residents along many of the flooded streams were unaware of the
            impacts of floods. This was based in part on no known history of
            previous flooding on these streams.


            Recommendation VI.1


            The WSFO WCMs and the RFC should use this event to develop
            preparedness material to distribute to emergency managers and the
            media in similar communities to try to overcome the lack of
            awareness of flood potential and to promote better community
            preparedness. Also, lessons learned from this event should be
            used in educational material for schools and community outreach
            programs.




                        Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-4













       Finding VI.2


       Routine "customer service" visits to emergency management
       officials by the RFC staff and the WSFO WCMs are important to
       maintain operations relationships. Visits are also particularly
       important for areas with limited emergency management programs or
       for locations without local flood warning plans in known flood-
       prone areas. Examples are Girdwood or at the Knik River Fire
       Station.


       Recommendation VI.2


       Routine coordination and preparedness visits by WCMs and RFC
       staff should be made to key emergency management agencies. For
       Anchorage, these include the Kenai Peninsula, the Mat-Su Borough,
       and the Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPC). Attendance
       is also recommended at the meetings organized by the Alaskan
       Association of Emergency Managers.



       Finding VI.3


       The RFC and the WSFOs can improve warning services by
       participating in ADES/NWS jointly organized emergency event
       exercises.


       Recommendation VI.3


       The WSFO WCMs and the RFC should work with the ADES to design and
       participate in emergency response drills applicable to NWS
       services.



       Finding VI.4


       The emergency management staff's knowledge of hazardous
       weather/water events can be improved so they understand the NWS'
       technological and response capabilities. The NWS needs to also
       understand the emergency services capabilities and priorities in
       responding to these events.


       Recommendation VIA


       The Alaska Region (Environmental Scientific and Services
       Division, WSFOs, RFC) should work with the ADES to develop such
       an educational program involving the Regional staff, the WCMs,


                   Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-5









           and the staff of the RFC with the ADES/Borough emergency
           management staff.



           Finding VI.6


           Flood response groups like the NWS and the emergency services
           agencies need to share their post-event reflections.


           Recommendation VI.6


           The assessment team should meet with the ADES, Borough emergency
           service agencies, and the LEPCs to jointly discuss our Findings
           and Recommendations. Joint activities to implement the emergency
           services related recommendations should be explored.

                Note (4): The assessment team has met with the above
                groups to discuss the NWS response and the interactions
                between the NWS and the groups during the flood.       A
                number of cooperative activities are taking place in
                response to the joint assessments.




           Finding VII.1


           The Anchorage WSFO/RFC operations staff had just moved into their
           new facility in mid-September. They were not completely adjusted
           to their new surroundings and office support systems.


           Recommendation VII.1


           The support systems and the WSFO/RFC staff familiarization with
           the systems in the new WSFO/RFC facility should be arranged to
           provide for efficient operations. This has been accomplished.



           Finding VII.2


           The multi-year transfer of operational applications and database
           from the Prime computers to the Unix workstations was not yet
           completed. Operations access to observations required manual
           processing some of the time.


           Recommendation VII.2.1


           The conversion from Prime computers to Unix workstations should


                       Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-6










       be completed as quickly as possible. As of March 1996, the NWS
       operations in Alaska successfully operate without the Prime
       computer.


       Recommendation VII.2.2


       An improved data quality control operation should be developed to
       support forecast and warning operations. The objective of the
       operation is to ensure that all observations are checked for
       proper decoding and processing. This should be the
       responsibility of the WSFO hydrometeorological technician staff
       which is consistent with the modernization of NWS operations.



       Finding VII.3


       Spotters provide valuable observations for hazardous
       weather/water events to supplement existing observations systems.
       The new WCM at the Anchorage WSFO can begin to expand and enhance
       the spotter network.


       Recommendation VII.3


       The new WCM at the Anchorage WSFO should begin to expand and
       enhance the spotter network. The WCMs at the other Alaska WSFO
       should also establish more effective spotter networks.

       The WCMs should emphasize to the emergency management and law
       enforcement organizations the importance of having them relay
       significant weather and water reports to the NWS.



       Finding VIIA


       Very little of the real-time flood and heavy rain reports
       reaching the ADES were relayed to the WSFO/RFC operations.


       Recommendation VII.4


       An electronic pathway for reports to reach the emergency service
       offices should be developed to get the reports to NWS operations.
       This is addressed in Recommendation VIII.1.


       One of the plans in the NWS modernization is also to provide a I-
       800 telephone service dedicated to telephone communications
       between emergency operations centers, the forecast offices, and
       the RFC. This should be implemented in Alaska as soon as
       possible.


                   Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-7














            Finding VII.5


            Telephones in the new forecast office were inoperable for a
            critical period of about 2-3 hours on the morning of September
            21.


            Recommendation VII.5


            Cellular telephones should be provided to the forecast offices
            and.the RFC for back-up telephone service when normal telephone
            service is disrupted. The cellular phone numbers should be
            provided to the emergency services and law enforcement agencies.
            There should be a procedure in place at the WSFO for ensuring the
            telephone company is alerted, preferably automatically, when
            there is a telephone system failure.



            Findincr VII.6


            Operational coordination and communication between the WSFO and
            the RFC can be strengthened through a routine daily coordination
            process.


            Recommendation VII.6


            An effective daily coordination process should designed and
            implemented among the Center Weather Service Unit, the RFC, the
            Alaska Aviation Weather Unit, and the 3 Forecast Offices. This
            has been implemented in January 1996.

            The "daily" aspect of the coordination should develop routine
            operational interaction between the WSFOs and the RFC. During
            events, such as the south central flood, coordination should be
            more frequent between the impacted WSFO and the RFC. The
            coordination process should also include precipitation forecasts
            to support RFC and WSFO hydrologic operations.




            Findincr VII.7


            There was an extraordinary number of telephone calls into the
            WSFO and the RFC for information during the flood event which
            heavily impacted the operations staff.


            Recommendation VII.7


                       Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-8










       Automatic answering systems should be explored which can provide
       cost effective and efficient service state-wide for public and
       emergency service information.



       Finding VII.8

       The RFC prepares and issues flood watch and warning products for
       the WSFO Anchorage area of responsibility when the RFC is in
       operation.


       Recommendation VII.8


       The WSFO Anchorage should prepare and issue all hydrologic
       watches, warnings, and statements during flood threats in the
       Anchorage area of responsibility. The RFC should be the
       hydrologic operations support facility to the WSFO in providing
       hydrologic information, data, and guidance. This is consistent
       with the modernization plan for WSFO/RFC operations. This
       requires a hydrology training program for the WSFO operations
       staff so they can fulfill their hydrologic responsibilities.



       Finding VII.9


       A Service Hydrologist had been added to the Anchorage WSFO staff
       in 1994. This should improve the WSFO hydrology services
       program.


       Recommendation VII.9


       The new Service Hydrologist at WSFO Anchorage should be involved
       in the design and implementation of the procedures in
       Recommendation VII.8. The Service Hydrologist should team with
       the WSFO Science and operations officer to design the hydrologic
       training for the WSFO staff.




       Finding VII.10


       A Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) program is needed at
       the Alaska Region WSFOs to support river forecasting at the RFC.
       The QPFs can improve the flood forecasting capability. The new
       SOO will be an important factor in developing the new QPF
       program.


       Recommendation VII.10


                   Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-9









           The Alaska Region should design and implement an operational QPF
           program. A QPF development team composed of the Regional
           Scientist, the S00s, the DOH, a Hydrometeorology Analysis and
           Support (HAS) forecaster, and selected lead forecasters should
           develop the program. The program should begin with operational
           QPFs to support the RFC in some form in 1996.



           Finding VII.11


           The flood product lead times ranged from 0 hours to over 17
           hours. Most areas with 0 hour lead time are areas containing no
           real-time stream gauges. The areas with the lead time of 16
           hours or more have stream gauges.


           Recommendation VII.11


           The recommended additional automatic (Recommendation-VI.I.2) or
           manual stream gauges in areas with flood potential will provide
           monitoring capabilities to increase the lead time in data-sparse
           areas.




           Finding VII.12


           Significant damage can and did occur because of debris flows
           rather than water inundation.


           Recommendation VII.12


           The RFC should develop criteria to identify the potential for
           debris threats in high intensity rainfall events. The threat
           should be coordinated with the WSFO in the flood threat area so
           debris potential is included in any flood products.



           Finding VII.13


           The information content of the watch and warning products was
           appropriate for the data-sparse areas affected by the flooding.
           The products for the areas in which there were no real-time river
           gauges for reference were, by necessity, somewhat vague on the
           details of the water levels. Products for areas with real-time
           stream gauges specified the reported stages and the estimated
           time of crest, but were not specific on the crest stage forecast.


           Recommendation VII.13



                       Findings and Recommendations: Chapter I-10










       The recommended increase in the network of precipitation and
       river gauges should improve water level forecasts. WSR-88D radar
       and satellite precipitation estimates should also improve the
       specific forecasts of crest stage and time.



       Finding VII.14


       Residents and emergency service agencies in flooded areas want to
       have action statements in our products to help guide residents in
       responding to the flood threat. The emergency service agencies
       can provide the best guidance for which statements to include.


       Recommendation VII.14


       Action statements should be coordinated with emergency services
       agencies to ensure applicability to the events taking place. The
       statements should be relevant to the potential impact of the
       event. The list of applicable statements should be readily
       available to the operations staff. The operations staff should
       coordinate with the emergency service agencies in the impacted
       areas during events to ensure proper statements are being
       included in the products.



       Finding VII.15


       WSFO Anchorage Hydrology Manual had been updated just prior to
       the flood event with a list of station identifiers used by the
       RFC.


       Recommendation VII.15


       The WSFO staff should review the Hydrology Manual periodically to
       remain familiar with site identifiers. There should be
       hydrologic services drills at least annually to keep the staff
       well practiced in hydrologic events.



       Finding VII.16


       Mudslides often occur in heavy rain events. The State Department
       of Public Safety is responsible for issuing alerts for mudslides.


       Recommendation VII.16


       The WCMs should develop general guidelines for mudslide
       information in coordination with the RFC and the Department of

                  Findings and Recommendations: Chapter I-11









            Public Safety. During heavy rain events or potential heavy rain
            events, WSFOs should coordinate with the RFC and the Department
            of Public Safety on including a threat of mudslides in our watch
            and warning products to provide better customer service.



            Finding VIII.1


            The pathway for NWS watch, warning, and statement information to
            the ADES Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on Ft. Richardson was
            through the NWWS. The ADES staff manually transferred the NWS
            products into the new ADES Emergency Services Information System
            (ESIS) for distribution to a limited number of other emergency
            management offices.


            Recommendation VIII.1


            The Alaska Region should work with the ADES to develop a more
            robust ESIS. The system should support information flow among all
            the emergency services organizations and the WSFOs/RFC. The
            system should be based on modern communications alternatives.

            The ESIS would allow the free flow of timely and vital weather
            information among the ADES, emergency services organizations, and
            the NWS offices. Information would include watches, warning, and
            statements along with a flow of reports from the affected areas.


                 Note (5): Meetings have been held since the flood with
                 the ADES and Alaska Region headquarters staff to discuss
                 the ADES ESIS and including the NWS as a participant on
                 the ESIS. The planning, designing, and implementation of
                 NWS participation in the ESIS is currently an active
                 project of the Region.





            Finding VIII.2


            The ADES did not have comprehensive knowledge on NWS products.


            Recommendation VIII.2


            The ESSD should prepare a comprehensive list of NWS products and
            services, listed by each WSFO and the RFC. These lists will also
            contain office hours of operations, phone numbers, and names of
            points of contact.


                       Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-12













       Finding VI11.3


       The dissemination of NWS flood products was hampered by:

       0    The lack of coverage by NWR transmitters in the flood
            impacted areas,

       0    The lack of comprehensive broadcast media dissemination,

       0    The lack of an effective dissemination capability within the
            emergency management community.

       0    The lack of easy access to NWS products by telephone.



       Recommendation VIII.3.1


       NWR transmitters should be provided in the Kenai/Soldotna area
       and the Mat-Su Valley. Ideal transmitters sites would be at the
       Borough emergency management offices and/or their dispatch
       centers. The Alaska Region should encourage the ADES and the
       Borough Emergency Services to apply for FEMA flood mitigation
       funding for the purchase and installation of the NWR
       transmitters.


            Note  (6): The purchase and installation of NWR
            transmitters for the Kenai and Mat-Su Boroughs has been
            included in the flood mitigation planning and funding
            initiatives for each of the Boroughs.


       Recommendation VIII.3.2


       The Alaska Region should participate in the ADES' ESIS, which is
       to include all of the state's emergency management offices in the
       system. Other key state and federal organizations, such as the
       State Troopers and the NWSI Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, will
       also be included.


            Note (7): This project is currently under way. See Note
            (5) under Recommendation VIII.1.


       Recommendation VIII.3.3


       Repeating Recommendation VIIJ, automatic answering systems
       should be explored which can provide cost effective and efficient
       service state-wide for public and emergency service information.



                  Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-13













            1.3       Final Remarks


            Our goal in this report is to properly illuminate the strengths
            and weaknesses in the National Weather Service Alaska Region
            flood warning services. The Alaska Region is committed to
            further strengthening the flood preparedness and warning program.
            Steps have already been taken to accomplish that goal, such as
            taking advantage of the new modernization positions (WCMs, SOOs,
            Service Hydrologist) and technologies such as the WSR-88D doppler
            radar, the new GOES 9 satellite, and the Alaska Region Operations
            Network (ARONET).













































                       Findings and Recommendations: Chapter 1-14










                                                                         Chapter II

                                                                  Description and Impact of Floods



                        September 1995 was a very wet month in south central Alaska.
                        Included in a series of cyclones was a single cyclone that
                        produced in excess of 20 inches of rainfall in several days in
                        some locations. The rain caused flooding on many streams in
                        south central Alaska that caused an estimated $10 million damage
                        to private homes and public facilities. Areas reporting flooding
                        are shown in Figure 1.

                        This report will focus on the period from September 19 through
                        October 2, 1995, which is when the flooding reached warning
                        levels. There was no loss of life and no reports of serious






                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     




                                           Figure 1.  Areas reporting flooding during the September-October
                                                      1995 south central Alaska flood event.


                                                              Description: Chapter II-1









            injury due to this flood. However, a hiker was swept to her
            death while attempting to cross a swollen stream from a precursor
            storm on September 17.

            During the latter half of September 1995, the precipitation rich
            regime had its roots in a persistent long wave pattern. A long
            wave trough in the north Pacific Ocean and a blocking long wave
            anticyclone in eastern Alaska and western Canada provided a
            continuous flow of warm, moisture laden air over south central
            Alaska. The heaviest rainfall came with the shorter wave
            cyclones moving north in the long wave flow, bringing a new surge
            of rain into south central Alaska every couple of days. The warm
            air associated with one of the cyclones set record high
            temperatures in many areas of the state.

            The series of cyclones prior to September 19 generated saturated
            soil conditions and greater than normal glacial melt in south
            central Alaska. Heavy rainfall began along the southern
            coastline of the Kenai Peninsula on the afternoon of September 19
            and spread inland overnight. Strong southeast wind, aloft during
            the storm, forced against southeast-facing mountain slopes of the
            Kenai, Chugach, and Alaska mountain ranges generated the greatest
            rainfall intensities. This rain caused the flooding in the areas
            shown in Figure 1.

            The strong southeast wind also led to the typical downslope
            conditions west of the Chugach and Kenai mountain ranges that
            resulted in very little rainfall in these areas. Thus, highly
            variable rainfall amounts were reported.

            Residents recounted being able to see surface runoff on the
            mountain slopes. Steep mountain terrain caused rapid runoff that
            carried heavy sediment loads onto flatter terrain. There, the
            current slowed and sediments deposited in and adjacent to the
            channels. The sediment deposition decreased the capacity of the
            channels, thereby increasing the degree of flooding. Most
            streams in south central Alaska crested on the 20th, 21st, or
            22nd of September. The lower Kenai River on the Kenai Peninsula
            did not crest until September 24, then remained above flood stage
            for over 10 days.

            Impact of the flooding includes damage to cabins, permanent
            homes, sewage treatment facilities, roads, trails, bridges, power
            transmission lines, airports, and railroad facilities. Fast
            currents caused significant bank erosion, channel shifting, and
            damage to dikes and levees. Figure 2 shows some of the impact of
            the flooding.




                                Description: Chapter 11-2














     'n, 'M



             F777      Figure 2a. Flooding
                       in Seward.



      "M






            . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .








                       Figure 2b. Erosion
                       damage in Seward
                       that cut through a
                      @street and exposed
                       utility lines.








      7777-7 @MMMM@





        &-p



             ...... .....

                      'Figure 2c. Stream
                       flowing through yard
                       of home in Girdwood.



         Q, A












            Description: Chapter 11-3









                                 Chapter III


                          Meteorological Summa


       III.1     Meteorolocical origins - September 14-18, 1995


       Surface analyses from the National Meteorological Center (NMC)
       and the Anchorage Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) were
       consistent in locating, tracking, and representing the intensity
       of cyclones preceding and during the flood event. These analyses
       are a major meteorological diagnostic information source over the
       North Pacific Ocean during real-time Alaska forecast operations.

       Satellite information is the other major source of diagnostic
       information. Forecasters had been monitoring typhoon "Oscar" for
       several days on both the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological
       Satellite (GMS) and the NMC's Pacific Surface Analysis as the
       typhoon departed the vicinity of Japan. Cooling infrared
       temperatures near the center of the cyclone in the satellite
       imagery confirmed its extra-tropical evolution before the flood
       event.


       Long range prognoses indicated that this cyclone could pose a
       problem for the state. The 0000 UTC September 16 cycle forecast
       from the aviation model (AVN) carried the remains of "Oscar" and
       a frontal cyclone initially some 1500 miles to the east southeast
       of Oscar to the Gulf of Alaska in the 60-hour forecast. Cyclone
       central pressures were 15-20 hecta Pascals (hPa) too weak in the
       forecasts. This is a typical under forecast for the aviation
       model. Cyclone positions were well forecasted by the models.

       Model forecasts of quantitative precipitation and vertical air
       motion in the North Pacific with these two cyclones began to give
       indications of a large precipitation potential. Succeeding model
       forecasts varied in the specific handling of events and continued
       to under forecast cyclone central pressures. At one point, the
       aviation model under forecasted the intensity of the lead system
       by 37hPa, forecasting a weak ridge where the cyclone actually
       verified. All models did improve their performance closer to the
       onset of heavy rains.

       The pattern that prevailed aloft prior to and during the flooding
       period was a long wave ridge along southeast Alaska with a long
       wave trough persisting in the western Gulf of Alaska. Shorter
       waves moved through the persisting trough across south central
       Alaska. This flow regime established a continuous flow of very
       warm, high moisture air ripe for precipitating on the Kenai and


                     Meteorological Sunmary: Chapter III-1









                                                 Chugach Mountains.

                                                 On Sunday and Monday (September 17 and 18), very high
                                                 geopotential heights aloft covered south central Alaska. Very
                                                 warm temperatures, typical of a near-subtropical airmass at mid-
                                                 and high-levels, resulted in unusually high freezing levels
                                                 (9,000-12,000 feet) across the Prince William Sound area during
                                                 this period and again during the heavy rains several days later
                                                 (Figure 3). A precursor "rain storm" brought heavy rains (5+
                                                 inches) to Kodiak on Sunday and prompted a flood watch for rivers
                                                 and streams in the Seward area Sunday.








                                                                                        12                                                                                                                                                                                20


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -18


                                                                                                     . . . . . ..................
                                                                                        10                                  ...........         ..........         .. .........  ..........
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                                                                                                                              ........ ----- --                       ....... ... ..............        ......................  ..............                        -.10        W

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                                                                                                         ..........                  ..... .....  ......     .......... ... ... . ...                . .........       . ......               .. ........... ................ 8
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                                                                                          4
                                                                                                       .............. -------------- ... ........... ..... . ....... . .......            ............. @% .. . .... ..... ............... --------- ---- ...... ........ .............. .......... 4


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                                                                                          2                                                                                Ri '_-                                                                                     I..
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                   15            16     17        18         19        20          21       22        23             24    25        26          27       28         29        30
                                                                                                                                                                      September



                                                                       Figure 3.                                 Approximate freezing level in south central
                                                                       Alaska and                                  precipitation in Seward in September 1995.
                                                 On Monday, September 18, the lead cyclone which produced the
                                                 heavy rains several days later intensified rapidly in the eastern
                                                 Pacific. Central pressure fell from 994hPa to at least 978hPa on
                                                 both the NMC and WSFO Anchorage surface maps. Satellite imagery
                                                 at this time came from 3 sources: the Japanese GMS, the U.S.
                                                 Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-7, and
                                                 polar satellite imagery. Water vapor channels on the GOES-7
                                                 began to show a substantial contribution of moisture to the lead
                                                 cyclone from the remains of "Oscar" further to the west and
                                                 northwest. All satellite imagery continued to suggest a decrease
                                                 in tops of clouds associated with ex-typhoon "Oscar," indicating
                                                 a diminishing threat of heavy rains.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       I


































                                                                                                       Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-2










       Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the pattern which persisted for the
       flood event. The "bright" white cloud masses evident in Figures
       4b and 4c over and approaching south central Alaska are
       correlated with deep concentrations of moisture and high amounts
       of precipitation. The Nested Grid Model (NGM) forecasts in
       Figure 5, which show a typical model flow pattern for this event,
       were generally accurate. The QPFs from the models are quite
       another matter. The NGM 12-hour integrated QPF valid at the 24-
       hour forecast time peaks at 0.42 inches over Prince William
       Sound. The forecast precipitation pattern is not representative
       of the extreme variations forced by the south central Alaska
       orography. This will be discussed more in detail in the
       description of the performance of the radar in Chapter V.



       111.2     Flooding Period: Ser)tember 19 - October 2, 1995


       By 0000 UTC Wednesday, September 20, the lead cyclone had moved
       north to 360 miles south of King Salmon as a 960hPa center. A
       strong front extended southeast and then south from the center.
       Because of the subtropical origins of this lead system, the
       moisture content was very high.

       Atmospheric temperatures were significantly higher than normal
       during the precipitation event. Precipitation fell in the form
       of rain at nearly all elevations of the mountainous terrain
       surrounding Prince William Sound and along the Kenai Peninsula.
       Dewpoints were also above normal. Strong east and southeast wind
       accompanied the heavy rain. South central Alaska freezing levels
       remained at or above 5000 feet from September 15 through
       September 28 (see Figure 3).

       Precipitation amounts during the event were substantial,
       particularly along southeast-facing slopes. Strong southeast
       wind during the event caused substantial orographic lifting that
       enhanced precipitation along the mountains. Precipitation totals
       during the period of heaviest rain, from the morning of the
       September 18 through the morning of September 22, ranged from 10
       to 20 inches in coastal areas, with amounts diminishing rapidly
       inland where down slope wind caused a "rain shadow" effect.
       Frequent rains persisted through the remainder of the month into
       early October.









                     Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-3














                                                                                                                                                            3                        9
                                                  MCI

                                                                    IN                                                                                                  $3   3
                                                                                                                                                                         *  *        .3           RA
                                                     -                                                       86
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                                                                                    SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 4 PM ADT MONDAY SEP 18


                                                                                      dim.                                                     ECK


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                                                                                                                                               VC


                                       Figure          4a.         Surface analysis prepared by WSFO Anchorage for data time 1600
                                       Alaska          Daylight Time on September 18, 1995 (0000 UTC September 19).


















                               _M     -Uri   _.vI                                               uIn
          rIMMA, (58NASOW) NORA-12 AVHRR CH. 4 09/18/95 fg":44:46n 4.4 K'M"
                                         y






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                    77
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                                      fw,
          Figure 4b.        NOAA-12 polar       orbiter infrared        (Channel     4)  mosaic of
          3 passes.       Youngest pass is on the left with an image                    time of
          1145 Alaska Daylight Time on September 18, 1995 (1945                         UTC).


















                              Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-5

















                                              -10   n    in
            WIN: (SON, 1SOW.. PAR- 12 AYN








                                                                    WA













            Figure 4c.  NOAA-12 polar orbiter infrared (Channel 4) mosaic
            made up of 3 satellite passes. The left most pass is  the
            youngest with an image time of 2116 Alaska Daylight Time on
            September 19, 1995 (0516 UTC September 20).





















                         Meteorological Summary: Chapter 111-6






















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         Figrure S. Nested grid model 4-panel 24-hour prognoses valid 1600 Alaska Daylight
         time September 18, 1995 (0000 UTC September 19, 1995) .       Upper left: 5OOhPa
         geopotential (m) in solid, absolute vorticity in dashed; Upper right:vertical
         velocity at 700hPa dashed and 12-h accumulated precipitation in solid; Lower
         left: mean sea level pressure (hPa) in solid and 1000-500hPa geopotential
         difference in meters dashed; Lower right: 700hPa geopotential (m) in solid and
         relative humidity (tens of percent) dashed.


                          Meteorological Sunmary: Chapter 111-7









                                  Chapter IV


                           Hydrological Summa


       IV.1      Introduction


       The significant hydrologic characteristics that contributed to
       the flooding of streams in south central Alaska September 19 -
       October 2, 1995, include wet antecedent conditions, warm
       temperatures, sediment transport, and abundant precipitation
       amounts.


       South central Alaska was very wet in September. For the first
       half of the month, coastal areas had received more than the
       normal monthl_v precipitation, putting these areas at twice the
       normal rainfall rate leading into the event. The wet antecedent
       conditions caused saturated snow conditions and resultant above-
       normal outflow from glaciers. The large flow enlarged drainage
       tunnels through the ice, which contributed to rapid runoff of
       rainfall and melt. Rainfall rates inland were slightly in excess
       of normal, except for the Palmer vicinity, which was less than
       normal.


       Temperatures increased significantly during this event, causing
       the precipitation to fall as rain at all elevations and, coupled
       with high dewpoints and strong wind, increased the melt rate of
       glacier ice. South central Alaska freezing levels remained at or
       above 5000 feet from September 15 through September 28.

       Precipitation amounts during the event were substantial, with the
       heaviest amounts on southeast-facing slopes (Figure 6). Strong
       southeast wind during the event caused substantial orographic
       forcing that enhanced the precipitation in these areas. Total
       precipitation during the period of heaviest rain ranged from 10
       to 20 inches in coastal areas, with amounts diminishing rapidly
       inland (Table 1). Persistent rainy weather through the remainder
       of the month and into early October contributed to a slow decline
       of water levels in affected areas.














                       Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-1











                        155W                                15OW                                145W


                                                                    0.09


                                                                                             0.17  'A


                                           2
                                           4
                                                                                     0.06
                                                  .0
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                                                              2,                              >0.02
                                         0                 0.6z
                                           4 56

                                                                              2.
                                                           0  50                                 2
                                                                      .44-                                           2
                                                                            1.71
                                                                                                                   2.27
                                                        74
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                                                                   3
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                                                       0.
                                                0 72                                                                  0
                                                 6.77                                           78
                                               0.94               30
                       0



                                           1.84                               >
                    3.1
                                                                                     0 10 20 30 40 50 mjle@



                                                               Contours delineate rainfall totals in inches
                   6                                           during the period Sep. 18-22, 1995


                                                               Note: Precipitation contours are estimates of
                   2                                           the general rainfall pattern and do not depict
                                                               the significant. liocal variation expected in'
                                       6                       mountainous terrain.


                                      +9











                  Figure 6. Precipitation totals during September 1995 event.

                                          Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-2








            Table 1 Precipitation Totals for Storm and Last Half of September
            (See App 11, Table 4 for Locations & Table 5 for Daily Data)

                                                                         Observn Sep 18-22 Sep 17-30 Sep Pcp of Normal
            Site I.D.    Location                                         (loc std) (inches)      (inches)    (inches)       N
            Anchorage and Chugach Mountains
            AAA          INDIAN PASS                                         mid        3.90        4.80
            ALYS         ALYESKA                                             8          9.44        11.58       6.00         386
            ANC          ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT                     mid        0.56        1.36        2.70         101
            APU          ALASKA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY                           9          0.98        1.67
            AQY          GIRDWOOD                                            4          6.20        >7.00
            CER          CHICHAGOF LOOP, EAGLE RIVER                         msa        1.63        1.93
            EKPR         EKLUTNA PROJECT                                     16         >2.85       >2.99
            ER5          IEAGLE RIVER 5 SE                                   18         2.18        2.46
            ERP          EAGLE RIVER VISITORS CENTR.                         4          3.20        3.40
            GLP          GLEN ALPS                                           4          3.50        4.30
            LRC          LITTLE RABBIT CK.                                   4          2.70        3.50
            MLSC         -MIRROR LAKE SCOUT CAMP                             9          1.20        1.36
            PAFR         FORT RICHARDSON WTP                                 8          1.45        1.83
            RBT          RABBIT CK.                                          4          2.36        3.30
            SEG          SO FK. EAGLE RV.                                    4          2.09        >2.09
            TUX          TUXEDNIPARK                                         4          1.40        2.00
            Kenai Peninsula
            519          19 MILES NORTH OF SEWARD                            7          6.34        9.24
            5WD          SEWARD, AT THE HOTEL                                2          14.12       17.57       10.01        351
            ABD          TURNAGAIN PASS                                      4          6.49        9.12
            ABM          SUMMIT CREEK                                        mid        5.50        7.90
            ABR          GRANDVIEW                                           mid        6.50        8.00
            APT          ANCHOR RIVER                                        8          >1.58       >2.82
            APT1         ANCHOR RV. NR ANCHOR PT.                            4          1.84        3.06
            BRM          MIDDLE FK BRADLEY RIVER                             mid        >2.31       >3.59
            BRRE         BRADLEY RESV. OUTLET                                mid        6.55        8.74
            BRT          BRADLEY RIVER @ TIDEWATER                           mid        5.12        6.26
            CLK          COOPER LAKE                                         mid        7.60        9.00
            COLK         COOPER LAKE PROJECT                                 15         6.86        >8.77       5.31         >330
            ENA          KENAI FAA AIRPORT                                   4          0.77        2.33
            EXT          EXIT GLACIER VISITOR CENTER                         17         10.54       14.49
            GLQ          GLACIER CK. @ BRUNO RD.                             4          10.94       12.26
            H9E          HOMER 9 EAST                                        18         1.85        3.00
            HCOV         HALIBUT COVE, SOUTH OF HOMER                        9          >5.06       >6.23
            HOM          HOMER                                               mid        2.09        3.15        3.29         191
            K9N          KENAI 9 NORTH                                       7          0.72        2.09
            KASI         KASILOF                                             7          0.94        2.22        3.01         148
            KMR          KENAI MOOSE PENS                                    mid        0.50        1.30
            LWQ          TRAIL RV. NR LAWING                                 4          5.30        7.90
            WAS          MOOSE PASS                                          17         6.64        10.34
            MYS          MYSTERY CK. @KENAI NWR                              4          2.07        2.88
            PRK          NUKA RIVER @ PARK BOUNDARY                          mid        18.46       22.86
            SILV         SILVER LAKE NEAR MOOSE RIVER                        7          1.36        1.93
            SWD          SEWARD ASOS                                         mid        >2.42       >5.31
            SXQ          SOLDOTNA                                            4          0.20        0.33
            ITt IT         I JTKA RAY I A                                    1 r,   1   1 QR7       JA47
            Table 1 Precipitation Totals for Storm and Last Half of September

                                      Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-3





                       (See App 11, Table 4 for Locations & Table 5 for Daily Data)

                                                                                            Observn Sep 18-22 Sep 17-30 Sep Pcp of Normal
                       Site I. D.    Location                                                (loc std) (inches)         (inches)      (inches)          N
                       Kodiak Island and Western Cook Inlet
                       5131          BIG RIVER LAKES                                             21          4.67          7.72          5.52           280
                       ADQ           KODIAK- KODIAK ISLAND                                       mid         4.49          >6.27         6.99           >179
                       CHIN          SOUTH COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND                                19          5.99          >12.18
                       INT           INTRICATE BAY                                               18          3.23          4.16          4.39           190
                       OLIZ          IOUZINKIE                                                   7           7.36          11.16
                       Z30           I PORT ALSWORTH                                             18          0.81          1.27          2.49           102
                       Matanuska and Knik Basins
                       5WO           LAZY MOUNTAIN                                               7           2.44          2.69
                       AK42          SUTTON 2 EAST                                               13          1.74          1.89
                       ANDL          ANDERSON LAKE                                               7           0.73          1.07
                       LSU           LITTLE SUSITNA RIVER                                        7           1.33          >1.70
                       LSUS          LITTLE SUSITNA LARC                                         4           1.20          1.20
                       MAES          MATANUSKA AGRI EXP STATION                                  9           2.56          2.88          2.43           237
                       MAG           GLACIER PARK- MATANUSKA GLACIER                             8           1.71          1.81
                       PAES          PAMER IAS                                                   9           1.58          1.79          2.50           143
                       PAQ           PALMER MUNICIPAL AIRPORT                                    4           >1.68         A.68
                       SLIT          SUTTON LARC                                                 4           >2.3          >2.3
                       WAS           WASILLA CREEK AT HYER ROAD                                  8           1.26          A.48
                       WAS3          IWASILLA 3 SOUTH                                            17          0.74          0.98          2.84           69
                       Susitna Basin
                       5HR           HAYES RIVER                                                 16          4.56          5.89
                       ACR           SU RIVER AND ALEXANDER CK CONFL,                            8           0.74          A.50
                       CANT          CANTWELL 2 EAST                                             20          0.09          0.39
                       QLAK          CHELATNA LAKE                                               8           1.07          2.21
                       LAK           YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CK CONFL                              9           1.07          A.48
                       PTI           PUNTILLA LAKE                                               16          2.30          2.95          3.27           180
                       SKW           SKWENTNA                                                    16          >1.11         A.48          3.31           >89
                       SUN           SUNSHINE                                                    9           0.62          1.18
                       TKA           TALKEETNA                                                   20          0.41          A.36          4.23           >64
                       TIVIL         TWELVE MILE LAKE                                            4           0.00          0.00
                       WIL           WILLOW CREEK AT WILLOW                                      8           0.50          0.87
                       WILW          WILLOW WEST                                                 11          >0.45         >0.74
                       Copper River Basin
                       5GN           TAHNETA PASS                                                17          2.20          2.37
                       5PX           PAXSON                                                      20          0.17          0.66
                       GAK           GAKONA                                                      9           0.11          0.39
                       GKN           GULKANA FAA                                                 4           >0.02         >0.02
                       KCAM          GLENNALLEN KCAM                                             9           0.10          0.67          1.30           103
                       LKSU          LAKE SUSITNA                                                17          0.06          0.38
                       MXY           MCCARTHY 3 SOUTHWEST                                        18          2.27          2.77                   1
                       TON           TONSINA                                                     7           2.02          2.28          1.24           368
                       Prince William Sound and Gulf of Alaska Coastline
                       5WT           WHITTIER                                                    21          20.75         31.05
                       QDN           CORDOVA NORTH                                               14          10.78         15.60
                       QDV           CORDOVA                                                     4           >4.27         >7.49         13.78          >109
                       MAIN          MAIN BAY                                                    10          13.42         22.31
                       PTSW          PORT SAN JUAN                                               12          6.46          11.80
                       VWS           VALDEZ                                                      mid         3.79          >5.61         8.37           >134
                       YAK           YAKHTAT                                                     mod         A -QR         -@l 1 Rq      1 A AR           9A




                                                    Hydrological Summary:                        Chapter IV-4









       IV. 2     Data Accruisition


       Steep, mountainous terrain contributes to highly variable
       precipitation patterns. Stream flows in steep mountains respond
       rapidly to precipitation. Numerous and strategically placed
       real-time stream and rain gauges are required to ascertain
       hydrologic response. The real-time stream and rain gauge network
       in the areas impacted by this event is sparse with an average of
       about one stream gauge per 1000 square miles and one rain gauge
       per 750 square miles (Figures 7 and 8).

       Stream gauges that are read manually by observers typically have
       a lower temporal resolution than automated gauges because the
       observer is not always available to read the gauge. Such gauges
       are scheduled to be read and the readings telephoned to the RFC
       once per day, with more frequent readings and reports during
       significant water level rises. The frequency of readings and
       reports at manual sites ranged from daily to hourly during the
       event, with most sites providing only one or two readings per
       day. Some river stage observers also measure and report
       precipitation amounts.

       Automated gauges are realistic alternatives in Alaska because of
       mountainous and people sparse locations. Data transfer from on-
       site sensors is by telephone, satellite, or meteorburst
       technologies. Automated gauges provide high temporal resolution
       of data and data are available within a few minutes to a few
       hours of the reading.

       Cooperative observers for the NWS climate program measure
       precipitation daily, but do not routinely report the data until
       the end of the month when they send in their written report of
       the data. This is useful for post-event analyses, but not
       available when forecasting the event.



















                      Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-5














                                                                  15ow                                   14 @W



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                                                                          ID Gauge data available for post storm aiialy@s
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                    Figure 7. Location of precipitation gauges in south                                       central
                    Alaska (see Figure 8 for gauges inside inset box).

                                              Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-6








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                                                                     150W     ID Gauge data wailableforpost stwm analos
                                                    j
            Figure 8.           Location of precipitation                   gauges in Palmer,
            Anchorage, and Kenai Peninsula areas.

                                      Hydrological Summary:                Chapter IV-7










                     20                                                10


                                                  ....... ....
                     18   ....... ..... . . ........ ....... .... ....... ... -4
                                ........ ....... .... I. . . ..... ....... ....... ..
                                                                       9

                                                                       -8
                     16

                     14                 . . .......
                               ....... . ...... . .... ...... ....... ....... ..................... ... ... . ....... ......... ....... ..... ....... .......
                                                                       7

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                                              ....... ...
                      2 ...  ........ ------- -. .......t ....... ........ ------- .......1
                                                                   ...... .....


                      0                                                0
                         1  3  5 7   9  11 13 15  17 19 21 23 25 27 29
                                        September 1995



             Figure 9. Resurrection River stages at Exit Glacier Road bridge
             and precipitation at the Seward Hotel.


             IV.3      Hydrologic Charactgristics


             IV.3.1    Seward Area


             September was also a very wet month in the Seward area. Rain
             gauges in the area collected from 4 inches north of Seward to 12
             inches in town during September prior to the 17th. This caused
             saturated soil conditions that lead to increased runoff from
             rainfall. Rain two weeks prior to this flood event caused minor
             flooding on Resurrection River (Figure 9) and area streams.

             On the night of September 19-20, the Resurrection River began to
             rise sharply due to high intensity rainfall (Figure 9). Although
             rainfall intensities are difficult to ascertain due to the poor
             spatial and temporal resolution, it appears that the recurrence
             interval is approximately 50 years for the 24-hour duration
             (Table 2). Freezing levels were also high, which increased the
             glacial melt contribution to the river. At 10 a.m. on September
             20, the Resurrection River crested after rising over 8 feet at
             the Seward Highway bridge in 30 hours; this is approximately 4
             feet above flood stage. Numerous other streams in the Seward
             area also flooded. Severe bank erosion and deposition were


                             Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-8










       reported. Roads were closed and standing water flooded numerous
       low lying areas. Flood damage was reported at the Lowell Creek
       bridge, University of Alaska Marine Center, airport, small boat
       harbor, and sewage and power facilities. Water levels on the
       Resurrection River and local streams receded very slowly and it
       was not until September 22 that the flood warning was canceled.

















































                      Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-9





                          Table 2 Rainfall Amount, Time of Occurrance, and Estimated Recurrence Interval at Selected Sites


                          Precipitation Duration                   I hr       2 hr       3 hr    4 hr        5 hr          6 hr       12 hr         24 hr 36 hr      48 hr
                          Kodiak

                          Time of Observation                 201OOz     20/01 z     20102z     20102z     20/02z     20/03z          20/09z        20/20z 21/08z    21120z
                          Precipitation                            0.38       0.73       1.04    1.39        1.64          1.81       2.20          2.69 3.07        4.08
                          Recurrence Interval                      1          1          2                                 1          1             1                 <2
                          Bradley Lake Dam
                          Time of Observation                 20/11 z    20/12z      20/12z     20/12z     20/12z     20/12z          20/14z        21/02z 21/11z    21/23z
                          Precipitation                            0.27       0.54       0.75    1.00        1.24          1.51       2.37          3.62 3.84        4.36
                          Recurrence Interval                      <1         <1         <1                                1          1             2                 2
                          Seward                                                   I                                                       I
                          Time of Observation                            20/1 8z                20120z                                20/18z        21/00z 21/12z
                          Precipitation                                       1.26               2.50                                 6.76          9.29 10.69
                          Recurrence Interval                                 5                                                       50            so
                          Glacier Ck nr Seward
                          Time of Observation                 19/18Z '-19/18Z        ignaz      19/12z     19/13z     19/14z          19/20z        20/05z 20/17z    21/05Z
                          Precipitation                            0.34       0.65       0.97    1.27        1.50          1.75       2.99          5.81 7.34        8.34
                          Recurrence Interval                      <1         <1         -cl                               <1         1             5                 5
                          Lawing
                          Time of Observation                 20/1 Oz    20111 z     20112z     20/13z     20/14z     20/15z          20/21z        21/03Z 21/15z    22/03z
                          Precipitation                            0.30       0.50       0.70    1.00        1.20          1.30       2.50          3.80 4.60        4.80
                          Recurrence Interval                      <1         <1         <1                                <1         2             2                 2
                          Turnagain Pass
                          Time of Observation                 20109z     20110z      20111 z               20/13z     20114z          20/20z        21/04z 21/15z    22/00z
                          Precipitation                            0.40       0.60       0.90                1.30          1.60       2.60          4.20 5.20        5.50
                          Recurrence Interval                      5          2          5                                 2          5             25                10
                          Whittier *

                          Time of Observation                                                                                                       21106z           22106z
                          Precipitation                                                                                                             10.92            14.01
                          Recurrence Interval                                                                                                       50                25
                          Girdwood

                          Time of Observation                 20/09z     20/1 Oz     20111 z    20tl2z     20113z     20/14z          20/20z        21/03z 21/14z    21/22z
                          Precipitation                            0.50       0.80       1.20    1.40        1.60          1.80       3.20          4.60 5.30        5.60
                          Recurrence Interval                      25         10         10                                5          25            50                25
                          Eagle River Visitors Center
                          Time of Observation                 20/19z     20/20z      20120z     20120z     20120z     20120z          20120z        21/08z 21/20z    22/08z
                          Precipitation                            0.20       0.40       0.50    0.70        0.80          1.00       1.60          2.30 3.00        3.20
                          Recurrence Interval                      <1         1          1                                 2          2             5                 10
                          Matanuska Glacier Park
                          'rime of Observation                21/13z     21113z      21113z     21/13z     21/13z     21/13z          21/13z        22/01 z22/13z , 23/01Z
                          Precipitation                            0.30       0.40       0.50    0.60        0.60          0.80       1.40          1.70 1.70        1.80
                          Recurrence Interval                      5          2          2                                 2          5             5                 2
                          Hayes River *
                          Time of Observation                                                                                                       21/00z           221OOz
                          Precipitation                                                                                                             2.83             3.83
                          Recurrence Interval                                                                                                       10                10
                          Valdez
                          Time of Observation                                        21/12z                           21/15z          21115z        22109z 22/09z    22/09z
                          Precipitation                                                  0.65                              1.01       1.33          2.43 3.10        3.36
                          Recurrence Interval                                            <1                                <1         <1            <1                <2
                          Cordova Town *                                                                            I
                          Time of Observation                                                                                                       21/23z           21/23z
                          Precipitation                                                                                                             6.02             8.32
                          lRecurrence Interval                                                                                                      1                 2
                          * Observed on a 24-hour interval
                          iv.3.2               Kenai River Basin


                                                          Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-10











                 Heavy rain in the upper Kenai River basin beginning September 18
                 caused the Kenai River to begin rising. Water levels on the
                 Kenai River were above flood stage at all locations by the 22nd
                 (Figure 10). Water levels crested at Cooper Landing on the upper
                 river on September 23 and at Kenai Keys and Soldotna on the lower







                           50000          .. ........                            ...... ........
                                                          -tt
                           40000                                                                                 . ......
                                                                                                         Soldotna

                                               ........ ....... ......  . ........
                                                         .. ....... ............... ... ....... ........ ........ ........ ....... ........ ....... ........ ........ ...... ....... . ....... .... ........ .......
                                                                                                                                                 ....... ...


                      .E 30000
                       4)                                                 Flood Level       1
                                         ... ........ ........ ......... ........ ........ . ........ . ...... .....    ... ........ ........ ....... ......... ........ ........ ....... ........ ....


                           20000
                                                                                                    Cooper
                                                                                                    Landing
                                                                /i  Flood Level
                           10000         . ... ......... ........ ......... ........ ........ ........ ........ ...... ....... ... ..... ......T....... .........
                                                                         ......... .....                     ...                                 ...... . ......






                                                                                                                                                        ...... ........
                                     0                                                      ....       ........                               -.0
                                                      ........ ....... . ...... ...... .......                                                .... ... ... ..
                                                                                                                               ..... . ...
                                         16      11     is      2i     23     26      @7    ' 29      1      3       5      7       9     11      13     1       17
                                             16 18          20     22 24 26 28 30                        2       4      6       8      10     12 14          16
                                                           September                                                   October



                 Figure 10. Kenai River discharges during flood event.


                 river on September 24. At the time of the crest, water levels
                 were 2.1 feet above flood stage at Cooper Landing, 3.5 feet above
                 flood stage at Kenai Keys, and 2.5 feet above flood stage at
                 Soldotna. The peak discharge at Soldotna was estimated at 42,300
                 cubic feet per second (cfs), which has a recurrence interval of
                 >100 years (Table 6 in Appendix II). The highest recorded
                 discharge in 30 years of record at Soldotna prior to this event
                 was 33,700 cfs, which resulted from a combined rainfall and
                 glacier dammed lake release on September 9, 1977. Water levels



                                                    Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-11










            fell below flood stage on September 28 at Cooper Landing and on
            October 2 at the Kenai Keys and Soldotna.

            Based on a preliminary analysis of the resulting hydrographs at
            Cooper Landing and Soldotna, runoff in the upper basin above
            Cooper Landing would have been on the order of 7 inches. The
            entire basin runoff is estimated to be on the order of 4.5
            inches. If the intervening area is split between mountainous and
            non-mountainous terrain, approximately 7 inches of runoff from
            the mountainous terrain and 1 inch of runoff from the non-
            mountainous terrain would correspond with the reporting rain
            gauge sites and produce the required volume.

            Post analysis of all the precipitation gauges has indicated that
            about half of the flood runoff came from the area to the south of
            the Kenai River, including the Harding Icefield. This means that
            runoff from the basins of tributaries such as Cooper Creek,
            Russian, Skilak, and Killey rivers was substantial. Runoff from
            the Juneau Creek and Moose River basins is unquantifiable, but
            they appear to drain areas that received much lighter amounts of
            rain.


            One unique aspect of this event is the possible large role of the
            runoff from the Harding Icefield. The following information
            leads to the conclusion that rainfall runoff from the icefield
            (differentiating between rainfall runoff and snow/ice melt
            runoff), was large:

                 1. Freezing levels ranged from 6000 to over 9000 ft during
                 the September 18-23 period. Much of the icefield was bare
                 ice or firn. Precipitation from this warm, sub-tropical
                 storm fell as rain, even at the highest elevations over the
                 icefield.


                 2. Tustumena Lake rose over 3 feet, leading to minor
                 flooding on the Kasilof River, during this same time period.
                 With precipitation gauges in that area only recording light
                 amounts of rain, the only other source of this runoff was
                 drainage from the icefield.

                 3. Exit Glacier Ranger Station received 10.5 inches of rain
                 from September 18-22. Exit Glacier Creek, which only drains
                 Exit Glacier and some unknown area of the Harding Icefield,
                 rose roughly 5 feet from September 17 to September 20 before
                 the gauge washed away. This rise represents close to a
                 order of magnitude increase in the flow from the glacier.




                           Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-12










            4. Bradley Lake Hydroelectric Project, located southwest of
            the Harding Icefield in similar terrain, received
            substantial inflow to the lake during this event. A
            precipitation gauge near Nuka Pass collected 18.5 inches of
            rainfall from September 18-22.

       The reason why this rainfall runoff from the Harding Icefield is
       unique is that, in general, large glaciers and icefields act as
       storage elements in the hydrologic budget of a basin, storing
       snow and rain, to slowly release it sometime later. Rainfall on
       a unsaturated snowcover is absorbed by the snow much the same as
       dry soil absorbs infiltrating water. In the case of the Harding
       Icefield in mid-September, snowcover on the ice was at its
       minimum for the year and crevasses were abundant. In addition,
       firn layers would likely have been saturated and at the freezing
       point due to previous warm rains. In late summer, most glaciers
       have enlarged englacial/subglacial water conduits since the
       summer's meltwater enlarges these conduits faster than the
       plastic strain rate closes them. What this means,
       hydrologically, is that heavy rain is able to pass through the
       englacial/subglacial drainage systems on the order of days
       instead of weeks, with little loss of volume in transit. The
       contribution from the Harding Icefield to the flooding of the
       Kenai and Resurrection Rivers is unknown exactly, but is most
       likely significant.



       iv.3.3    Chugach Mountains Basins



       During the early morning hours of September 20, Glacier Creek and
       other streams in Girdwood rose sharply. By mid-morning, overbank
       flooding and severe bank erosion had caused damage to various
       structures and roads. The peak flow at California Creek was
       estimated to have a recurrence interval of about 50 years (Table
       6 in Appendix II). Channel deposition and erosion was severe on
       Glacier Creek and other local streams. The 24-hour precipitation
       of 4.6 inches measured in one gauge had an estimated recurrence
       interval of 50 years (Table 2). On September 21 streams were
       receding and the flood warning for Girdwood was canceled.

       Periods of moderate to heavy rain in the Chugach Mountains on
       September 20-21 caused Ship Creek, Eagle River, Peters Creek,
       Eklutna River, Hunter Creek, and other tributaries to the Knik
       River to rise sharply. Debris accumulated on the bridge pier on
       Hunter Creek that caused severe erosion of the abutment that
       resulted in bridge failure. Bridge failure and abandonment due
       to channel shifting were also reported in the upper Eklutna River


                      Hydrological Sunanary: Chapter IV-13









            basin. The lower Knik River continued to rise until early
            September 21, when it crested, inundating the Old Glenn Highway
            on the north approach to the Knik River bridge. Low-lying areas
            were flooded, including homes in the Wind Song Subdivision.
            Significant sediment loads were transported by steep mountain
            streams. The loads were deposited as stream gradients reduced,
            covering roads in some locations. The recurrence interval of the
            peak flow on the Knik River, Eagle River, and Peters Creek were
            estimated by U. S. Geologic Survey (USGS) to be >500 years (Table
            6 in Appendix II).



            iv.3.4   Western Susitna Basin



            Heavy rain during September 19-21 in the Alaska Range and in the
            Tordrillo Mountains caused the Skwentna and Yentna Rivers as well
            as Lake Creek to rise sharply. The Yentna River at its
            confluence with Lake Creek rose over 10 feet and flooding was
            reported at numerous locations. The Skwentna River flooded
            numerous structures in Skwentna on September 21. Damage to the
            Skwentna airport was reported. The Yentna River began flooding
            structures on September 21. Water levels receded slowly and the
            flood warning was canceled on September 25.



            iv.3.5   Cordova, Valdez, and Richardson Highway Areas



            Rain began in the Valdez and lower Copper River areas on
            September 19, with the greatest intensities on September 20 and
            September 21. Rain in the Valdez area brought streams out of
            their banks on September 21. Water flowed over the Richardson
            Highway in several locations and threatened a bridge in the Lowe
            River Canyon, forcing a road closure. Water also flowed over
            sections of the Copper River Highway near Cordova and flooded
            some homes in Cordova. A previously existing problem with a
            migrating channel of the glacial Scott River near Cordova was
            made worse by the rains, contributing to the flooding in Cordova.
            The lower Copper River reached record high levels on September 23
            that threatened the historic Million Dollar Bridge. The flood
            warnings for the Valdez and Cordova areas were canceled on
            September 22, while a flood watch for the Tonsina vicinity
            remained in effect until September 24.







                          Hydrological Summary: Chapter IV-14









                                  Chapter V


                            WSR-88D Performance


       V.1       Introduction


       A new Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) was
       installed in Kenai during the fall of 1993. This radar was
       upgraded with a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) redundant
       (two-channel) system in June of 1995. This meteorological radar
       with improved sensitivity and resolution gives forecasters real-
       time information on wind and precipitation. The WSR-88D uses
       precipitation echoes from one of the lowest four slices to
       calculate a rainfall intensity. The rainfall intensity is summed
       over time to create one hour, three hour, and storm total
       accumulations. These three products are then available in the
       form of color graphic display for the forecasters to examine.

       During the flooding period, forecasters were able to use the
       radar to determine areas with persistent, heavy rain. These
       areas included the Kenai Mountains, the Chugach Mountains, and
       the eastern slopes of the Alaska Range. However, accurate
       rainfall totals are difficult to determine because surrounding
       mountain ranges block the radar signal and the real-time rain
       gauge network is inadequate for calibration.

       Portions of the event were archived on Archive Level IV. Archive
       Level II is unavailable on the FAA radars in Alaska. Other
       problems included system outages at the radar during periods
       before the event and for brief periods during the event. At
       least one forecaster mentioned that problems with the radar
       communication lines also caused brief outages during the event.
       Additionally, the newness of the radar and the lack of any
       earlier heavy rain events meant that forecasters had few
       experiences using the radar during flooding situations.



       v.2       Beam Blockage


       The Kenai WSR-88D is located to the northwest of the Kenai
       Mountains and to the southwest of the Chugach Mountains. This
       greatly reduced the effectiveness of the radar precipitation
       products, because the heavy rains which occurred were
       predominantly confined to the eastern and central portions of the
       Kenai and Chugach mountains. This will be a continual problem
       for stratiform precipitation which is often, as in this case,
       greatly enhanced by orography and typically falls predominately


                        WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-1










            on the southeastern slopes of the Kenai Mountains.

            Except for a few gaps, beam blockage from the Kenai Mountain
            Range occurs over most of the lowest slice, which is 0.5 degrees
            elevation angle (Figure 11). Therefore, the precipitation
            algorithm automatically selects the next higher slice, 1.5
            degrees elevation, to compute rainfall estimates over the
            opposite side of the mountain range. Elevations of the 1.5
            degree slice range from 10,000 to 21,000 feet mean sea level
            (MSL) over the Kenai Mountains and their southeastern slopes are
            shown in Figure 12. This results in three major problems which
            leads to a significant underestimate of rainfall totals. First,
            1.5 degrees elevation places the radar beam above the areas of
            heavy orographically enhanced rainfall. Secondly, the radar beam
            was above the freezing level, where reflectivity returns from
            frozen precipitation are much less than from liquid
            precipitation. And lastly, any partial beam blockage of either
            slice eliminates a percentage of the return, which will also lead
            to underestimation.


            Radar precipitation products also indicated the presence of heavy
            rain on the eastern slopes of the Alaska Range. This area was in
            an up-slope flow region to the west of the radar and rainfall
            estimates for this area may have been more accurate because no
            beam blockage was occurring.






                             Nedthtation awmessing Algorithm

                    Sevationsficevsrunle    Beam blockne dae to motmtains

                                                 Partial Sam Blockage
                                                               4 slice


                                                              2.4 sl.,cz





                                                               .5 slice




                                         Kenai Mowtains
                             It 27m               T" Dom Blockage
                    3.4 2.4  1.5   or      27. the slice with Now
                       Elevation of slice used reFlectivitV is used.
                Figure 11. Precipitation preprocessing algorithm
                               :::=K.. Moiintam




                characteristics in response to beam blockage because
                of mountains.



                            WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-2












                                           TKA                       & N

                              T I
                                5HR  SK14                   5GN


                                               . _PA


                      iBF                                          S
                              SP               C
                              0__-0__N  6               T
                               BT 30     .7K 13K

                          0                K
                              N                   21
                              60                       30K
                                              11            1.5 DEGREE @DO
                                                            SLICE
                      ARST E  90H
                                                 7          ELEVATIONS IN
                                                            THOUSANDS OF FEET

                                                    0.5 DEGREE
                           120H                     SLICE


                                   ELEVATIONS OF 0.5 DEGREE SLICE AND 1.5 DEGREE
                                 0 SLICE AT 30, 60, 90 AND 120HM RANGE RINGS.



                Figure 12.    Elevations of 0.5 degree slice and 1.5
                degree slice at 30, 60, 90 and 120mm range markers.




       V.3 Gauge Comiparison

       The radar products underestimated the        rainfall at all gauge
       locations in the central and eastern portions of the Kenai
       Mountains (Figure 13). However, this was expected due to the
       beam blockage. Real-time gauge precipitation data, plotted in
       Figure 13, shows comparative gauge data under the radar umbrella
       is very limited. Only a few gauges are available in the Kenai
       Mountains, and none of these are available in an area where no
       beam blockage of the lowest beam occurs. As mentioned earlier,
       in most cases the 1.5 degree elevation slice will be too high to
       produce accurate precipitation products. Another problem is that
       the Hourly Digital Precipitation Accumulation product is not yet
       available from the Alaska radars.
                   4
                              T'-
                      fiF  @5HR







                           WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-3










            The only locations where radar data can be compared to gauge data
            are west of the Kenai and Chugach Mountain ranges. However, this
            was an area on the leeward side of the mountains that experienced
            very little rainfall due to down slope conditions.

            Only very crude comparisons can be made to gauge data because the
            Digital Product is not available. Build 7.0 software was running
            at the WSR-88D at the time of the event. With this version, the
            data levels for precipitation are at a set scale which is
            designed for heavy convective precipitation. Total gauge
            rainfall over the lower elevations and on the leeward side of the
            mountains from the September 18 to September 22 ranged from near
            one-half inch to about two inches. Eight of 12 selected gauges
            in this area were within the range of the displayed data levels
            on the Storm Total Precipitation product.



            v.4       Briaht Band Contamination


            The precipitation products during this event appeared to have
            been partially contaminated due to the high reflectivity returns
            in the melting layer. Determining whether or not bright band
            contamination is occurring is much more difficult due to the
            topography around the Kenai radar than at many other radar sites.
            Mountain--ranges are located to the northwest and southeast of the
            radar at similar distances. With heavy rains normally occurring
            over the mountains, this creates a higher precipitation pattern
            in a slight arc over both mountain ranges. In a strong
            southeasterly flow, down sloping occurs on the western slopes of
            the Kenai Mountains and can extend across much of Cook Inlet.
            This leads to an echo return minimum over the lower areas and
            around the radar.


            Determining whether higher returns are a reflection of the
            melting layer or orographic enhancement is very difficult due to
            the lack of gauges in the mountains.   This event was a case
            where the radar products indicated larger rainfall totals
            occurring in areas in which the 0.5 and 1.5 degree slice would
            have been traveling through the melting layer. This would
            suggest that the precipitation totals from the radar would
            overestimate the rainfall in these areas. No gauge data were
            available from any of these areas to verify the radar data.

            The radar uses a Bi-Scan Maximization beyond 27 nautical miles
            (nm) to select the radar slice to use for determining rainfall.
            When both the 0.5 and 1.5 degree slice are available, the slice
            which has the higher reflectivity is used to compute
            precipitation estimates. A semicircular pattern was visible in

                            NSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-4







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                                             Figure 13. Storm total precipitation product                                                                            for the period 1547 UTC September 18 to
                                              0303 UTC September 23, 1995. Precipitation amounts from gauges are also plotted.














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                                                                                          illlll@ M@m
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                                                                        ?@SK FEET@




                                               . .. .. .. .... .. .. . ... . . ......... .... ... ... ..... .................. .. ..............
           Figure    14.  Semicircular        pattern in      the storm total precipitation
           product.

           the Storm      Total Precipitation product (Figure 14). Higher
           precipitation totals were evident to the northwest and southeast
           of the radar between the ranges of 35 and 45 nm. This area
           matches a level of near 7500 ft at the 1.5 degree slice. A
           second semicircular area of high totals is visible from 60 to 70
           nm to the east through south and to the southwest of the radar.
           At the 0.5 degree slice, this area would also appear near the
           melting level at 6200 ft to the southwest and 7500 ft to the
           southeast. The second semicircular pattern to the southeast of
           the radar is broken up where most of the rain totals were created
           from the 1.5 degree slice due to the beam blockage of the 0.5
           degree slice.
                                                                               IL











































           v.5           Conclusion


           The WSR-88D radar provides an abundance of new information which

                                  NSR-88D Perfo-mance: Chapter V-7










            has never been available to the forecaster. However,
            precipitation products need to be calibrated with ground truth
            from real-time rain gauges.

            Rainfall amounts in areas which have partial beam blockage may
            improve as terrain data is scheduled to be added to the radar.
            This will help correct for beam blockage by adding additional
            reflectivities in areas which contain up to 50 percent beam
            blockage. For the eastern slopes of the Kenai Mountains, where
            total beam blockage occurs, the radar products will need to be
            supplemented with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and gauge
            data.


            In this event, partial and total beam blockage from the Kenai
            Mountains resulted in the radar precipitation products greatly
            underestimating the rainfall in the central and eastern
            mountains. This was because the second elevation slice of the
            radar was scanning above the freezing level and above the areas
            of orographically enhanced precipitation.

            It was possible that bright band contamination occurred over the
            central and western Kenai Mountains. This would have led to an
            overestimate of precipitation; however, the beam blockage in
            these areas led to an underestimation that countered this effect.
            The lack of any gauges in appropriate locations made it
            impossible to quantify the real effects of bright band
            contamination.



























                            WSR-88D Performance: Chapter V-8









                                 Chapter VI


                            Flood Preparedness


       VI.1      Introduction


       The primary mission of the NWS is the issuance of hazardous
       weather and flood warnings in order to reduce the loss of life,
       injury, and property damage resulting from natural disasters.
       However, the NWS also conducts a preparedness program to go
       beyond just the issuance of warnings. Preparedness programs are
       usually composed of at least four major activities: (1)
       coordination with local agencies to establish good
       communications, (2) organization and training of spotter groups
       and rainfall observers, (3) identification of areas vulnerable to
       specific hazards, and (4) a public hazardous weather and flooding
       education program. Moreover, the successful accomplishment of
       these programs depends upon the cooperative efforts between NWS
       field offices and local government officials, private
       organizations and the general public.

       The WCM position at the Anchorage WSFO was filled in 1994. This
       is a new NWS modernization position at each WSFO. The
       responsibilities of the WCM include developing and maintaining
       the preparedness program, as listed above. The WCM position is
       recognized in the NWS as vital to a vigorous and healthy
       preparedness program.

       The DOH is another NWS modernization position recently filled at
       the RFC. The DOH teams with the WCM in the area of flood
       preparedness.

       The findings and recommendations in this flood report will serve
       as a target of significant opportunity and focus for the WCMs and
       the DOH in the Alaska Region.


       VI.2      Coordination with Local Agencies


       Strong lines of communication are necessary between the NWS,
       local agencies, and the media. In Alaska, these agencies are
       borough and city emergency management agencies and law
       enforcement departments. These local agencies are often the
       first to either observe hazardous weather or flooding events or
       to receive reports from the public. The NWS receipt of these on-
       site reports provides "ground truth" which can verify previous
       warnings or be the basis for the issuance of new warnings.



                       Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-1










            On the other hand, local agencies must receive hazardous weather
            and flood forecasts and warnings consistently from the NWS in
            order to respond to the events. It is important that information
            flows freely in both directions between the NWS and these
            agencies.

            Local authorities were aware of reports of heavy rain and of
            flooding conditions in some areas, but did not provide the
            reports to the NWS.

            Several means of communication are used to distribute the NWS
            hazardous weather and flooding information. NWS watches,
            warnings and statements are transmitted over NOAA Weather Radio
            (NWR) and NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS), and can be
            transmitted by telephone with facsimile or voice. However, the
            telephone is considered to be the least efficient and the least
            preferred of these methods because only one person or agency can
            be contacted at a time.


            It was the understanding of the NWS that NWS flood watches,
            warnings, and statements were re-transmitted to affected agencies
            and relevant media by ADES upon notification. The affected
            community and associated media would receive watches, warnings
            and statements from ADES. It was learned after the flood that it
            is not ADES policy to re-trarismit NWS products except those
            pertaining to spring breakup and tsunami products. Thus, some
            communities needed to rely on regional and statewide radio/TV
            media for flood information.


            The news media generally broadcasted the flood watches and
            warnings in a timely manner. In fact, many of the residents
            interviewed were aware that a flood watch was in effect for their
            local area prior to the onset of the flooding. These residents
            stated that they received the watch through television and
            commercial radio, but were not inclined to take any immediate
            action.



            VI.3      organization and Training of Spotter Groups


            Spotter groups organized to collect hazardous weather, rainfall,
            and high stream level observations can provide "ground truth"
            information during events and can also serve as a source of vital
            information for local short-fuse community action.

            The RFC has a network of stream water level observers in Alaska.
            However, few of the observers were located in the headwater



                            Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-2









       areas, which experienced the greatest precipitation. Moreover,
       as many as half of the observers did not have rain gauges.

       River observer training has been conducted by sending instruction
       sheets to each observer and by conducting on-site training
       sessions.



       VIA       Identification of Areas Vulnerable to Floodin



       Although flood warnings from the NWS were issued for all flooded
       areas, many people did not react to the warnings due to the lack
       of knowledge of the immediate threat to life and property.
       Specific information needs to be disseminated to the public to
       identify the location and magnitude of flood problems along the
       river.



       VI.5      Public Education Proar



       The NWS conducts a public education program concerning weather
       and flooding hazards. However, emphasis in public education
       awareness in recent years has not been directed toward flooding
       safety.



       VI.6      Emergency Services Relationshi-ps


       Routine interagency activities among the emergency services
       agencies, the forecast offices, and the RFC are essential in
       developing smooth coordination and efficient information flow
       during hazardous events. The agencies need to know the NWS's
       hazardous event operating procedures. Similarly, the NWS
       operating facilities need to know the emergency services
       agencies, operating procedures.

       Two-way information flow is essential during the hazardous events
       to exchange information concerning the event. Information flow
       when hazardous events are not occurring is just as essential but
       takes a different form. There should be continuous and routine
       interaction between the forecast offices, the RFC, and the
       emergency services agencies to develop a close working
       relationship and understanding of the other's procedures.

       This flood event makes it clear both the hazardous event and the
       routine activities between the NWS and the emergency service


                       Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-3









            agencies need significant improvement. For example, the ADES
            organizes emergency event exercises to drill the state's
            emergency response services. These include earthquakes and
            hazardous releases. The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC)
            participates in the earthquake exercises and its warning system
            has benefited. The WCMs and the RFC should work with the ADES to
            design and drill the emergency response associated with major
            hazardous weather and flood events.


            During the flood event survey activities, the survey team met
            several times with the ADES and borough emergency services staff.
            These meetings were extremely valuable in developing an
            understanding of each others procedures and operations as well as
            for comparing and sharing lessons from the flood event.










































                            Flood Preparedness: Chapter VI-4









                                  Chapter VII


                              Warning Services

       VII.1      Introduction


       This chapter presents a summary of the warning services provided
       by the NWS during the September flooding. A detailed chronology
       of the events and NWS actions is provided in Appendix I.
       Products issued by the NWS are also provided in Appendix I.

       There were no fatalities attributed to this flood. There were no
       serious injuries reported as a result of the flooding. The
       impact of the flood was extensive damage to public and private
       property.


       VII.2      WSPO and RFC Operations Suipiport Environment


       The environment in which the forecasters and hydrologists were
       working during the flood impacted the services provided.
       Included in the environmental factors are the office space,
       computer systems, data acquisition, and communications systems.


       VII.2.1    WSFO/RFC Facility


       The WSFO and RFC moved into a new building during the second week
       in September, just shortly before the flood event began.
       Forecasters and hydrologists were in new surroundings and had new
       supporting equipment such as telephones, fax machines, and
       printers. Some routine supplies were unavailable or took the
       staff longer to locate. The unfamiliarity of the operations
       staff with the new office and its organization was likely the
       cause of some delays and occupied forecaster time. This will be
       remedied as forecasters gain familiarity with their new
       surroundings.


       VII.2.2    System Environment


       The WSFO and RFC have been working in a Unix operating system
       based workstation and network environment, known as the ARONET,
       for several years. A Prime mini-computer, which had been the
       basic computer support system since the early 1980s, was also in
       the network. The Prime had served as the sole applications and
       database support system until the introduction of the ARONET
       beginning in 1993. At the time of the flood, the Alaska Region
       was nearing the end of a muiti-year project to migrate all
       support systems off the Prime computer completely. Some key


                         Warning Services: Chapter VII-1










            support features, however, still remained on the Prime during the
            flood event.


            Precipitation data were being decoded and accessible only through
            the non-Prime database. The data processing software had not yet
            been perfected which created errors in the decoding and the
            transfer of the data. Some storm precipitation data had to be
            manually decoded which slowed down the process. Other key
            meteorological parameters at certain sites were displayed on the
            new workstations in ways which the operations staff were
            unfamiliar. The result of these inefficiencies during the
            flooding further limited the amount of data easily available to
            operations.


            VII.2.3   Data Accruisition


            Chapter IV presented the hydrologic perspective of the
            precipitation and river gauge network in the flooded area. That
            chapter pointed out the real-time sparsity of precipitation and
            river gauge measurements. There are, however, precipitation
            gauge data from a large number of sites that are not available in
            real-time. Most of the non-real-time sites send in written
            reports at the end of each month, while many private and other
            government agencies do not provide the data to the National
            Weather Service at all. These non-real-time precipitation
            reporting sites need to be brought into the real-time data
            collection system to support the entire hydrometeorological
            operation. The increased density of gauges could improve the
            quality of flooding forecasts and the forecasts of meteorological
            hazards.


            VII.2.4   Svotter Informatio


            Spotters are people who voluntarily report both routine and
            significant weather events to the WSFO. Their reports supplement
            existing observations and often provide critical information
            during hazardous weather and flooding events. Routine and
            significant river information can be reported to the RFC by
            spotters who also can observe river conditions. In addition to
            volunteer spotters, paid observers often report significant
            events over and above their routine responsibilities.

            The spotter network supporting the WSFO Anchorage is extremely
            limited. Other than a handful of significant event reports from
            observers, it is generally dependent upon spontaneous reports
            from the public.

            The responsibilities of the riew WCM at the Anchorage WSFO include


                             warning Services: Chapter VII-2










       developing the spotter network. This flooding event can serve as
       a springboard to build and maintain an improved network.

       There is another source of significant event reports that was
       unavailable to the WSFO and RFC operations staff during the
       flood. Following the flood, the ADES provided the Flood Report
       group with a copy of their Flood-Incident Log (Appendix IV).
       This Log is part of the ADES' new emergency services information
       systems described later in Chapter VIII (Dissemination). On
       scene reports of flooding and heavy rain reaching the ADES'
       Emergency Operations Center were routinely included in the Log.
       Very little of these potentially valuable real-time reports
       reached the WSFO/RFC operations except perhaps through verbal
       remarks during discussions between the RFC and the ADES staff.


       VII.2.5   Communications


       The communications systems influenced the warning services in
       three ways: (1) telephone communications failure, (2) inter-
       office communication, and (3) communication with the public:

       (1) Telephone communication failure: All telephones in the new
       forecast office were inoperable for a critical period of about 2-
       3 hours on the morning of September 21. A hydrologist had to
       drive to his home nearby to report the outage to the telephone
       company. The outage prevented the verbal flow of information
       into and out of the WSFO and the RFC during a hazardous event.

       (2) Inter-office communication: The WSFO communicates
       meteorological information and qualitative precipitation
       forecasts, when included, to the RFC through the Anchorage
       Forecast Discussion (see Appendix I). Operational interaction
       between the WSFO and the RFC staff is informal and left to the
       initiative of the staff. During this flood event, the
       hydrologist or the hydrometeorological analysis and support (HAS)
       forecaster on duty at the RFC would periodically consult with
       the WSFO lead forecasters to determine the latest meteorological
       picture.

       (3) Communication with the public: There was an extremely high
       number of telephone calls from the public for information during
       the flooding.   More than 1000 calls per day came into the WSFO
       and RFC during the busiest period between September 21 - 23.
       There were frequent periods when all available staff in the RFC,
       including the Regional Hydrologist and the secretary, were on the
       telephone at the same time. During these periods, the staff were
       unable to accomplish their hydrologic analyses and forecast
       product preparation operations. Incoming telephone calls were a


                        Warning Services: Chapter VII-3









            significant impact on the warning and forecast services during
            the flooding.

            A high volume of telephone calls is not surprising during such a
            major event. However, this may reflect on a larger dissemination
            problem. Following sections and chapters document the flood
            information products issued by the RFC and the WSFO. There was
            plenty of information, but there may have been difficulties in
            getting the information to the public. This is discussed in the
            next chapter on dissemination.


            VII.3          WSFO and RFC LToint Operations


            The current Regional Operations Manual Letter (A-08-92) assigns
            hydrologic responsibilities for issuing Flood/Flash Flood Watch
            and Warning products for the WSFO Anchorage hydrologic services
            area (HSA) to the RFC when the RFC is in operation.

            Because the RFC has had the responsibility over the years, staff
            at the WSFO Anchorage are not routinely involved in and have
            limited knowledge about the hydrologic warning program.
            During the evening and nighttime hours when the RFC is not
            normally operating, the WSFO is responsible for issuing
            hydrologic products. WSFO forecasters can call the hydrologic
            forecaster at home to discuss flood threats during these hours.
            In most of these cases, the hydrologic forecaster issues the
            flood product. On other occasions, guidance is given to the WSFO
            forecaster who then issues the product.

            A new Service Hydrologist position was filled at the Anchorage
            WSFO in mid-1994 as a part of the NWS modernization. The Service-
            Hydrologist is responsible for developing and maintaining
            hydrologic operations at the WSFO by (1) training WSFO
            forecasters in hydrologic operations, (2) developing and
            maintaining a hydrologic observing network and the flow of data
            from the network into the WSPO, and (3) developing and
            maintaining the WSFO hydrologic service program. The Service
            Hydrologist had completed most of the training required for the
            position at the time of the flood and was just starting to have
            an impact on the WSFO hydrologic operations.

            The precipitation forecast information provided to the RFC by the
            WSFO was through (1) the Forecast Discussion,.which was
            qualitative, and (2) through discussions between the WSFO lead
            forecaster and the RFC staff. The latter was generally a review
            of the precipitation forecasts from the NMC models and a
            recommendation by the lead forecasters as to which was the best
            model QPF. The NMC models and model QPFs available during the


                             Warning Services: Chapter VII-4











        flood were:


        0    Aviation in 12 hour intervals out to 72 hours,

        0    Medium fine range in 24 hour intervals out to 240 hours,

        0    eta (80km) in 6 hour intervals out to 48 hours,

        0    Nested grid model in 12 hour intervals out to 48 hours,

        0    Limited fine mesh in 12 hour intervals out to 48 hours.


        None of these models sufficiently resolve the south central
        Alaska orography to provide useful QPF guidance. The
        precipitation pattern generating the flood was dictated by the
        orography as was shown in Chapter V. The new 48km eta, which
        resolves the orography much better, was not available to
        operations in Alaska at the time of the flood.       Products from the
        48km eta model will be available to forecasters      beginning mid-
        1996.


        A formal QPF program to support the RFC had not      been implemented
        in the Alaska Region at the time of the flood.       Planning for such
        a program had already begun in August 1995 at a      meeting involving
        the Alaska Region SOOs and Regional staff. The       program is
        planned for operational implementation in 1996.

        The SOO is another new position at each WSFO resulting from the
        NWS modernization. The SOO is responsible for staff training and
        introducing new science, technology, and applications into
        operations. They focus on keeping the staff scientifically up to
        date on the latest developments in operational forecast
        methodologies and will be important in the development of a QPF
        program.


        VII.4           RFC Warning Servicos

        During the flood event, the RFC increased their hours of
        operations from 10 hours to 17 hours a day. The RFC staff
        prepared and transmitted public release hydrologic products,
        faxed products to ADES and other selected agencies, and
        communicated with ADES by telephone.

        The products issued by the RFC are provided in Appendix I. The
        three main criteria for evaluating the warning service during
        this flood event are: (1) the timeliness of the products, (2) the
        content of the products, and (3) the dissemination of the
        products.


                          Warning Services: Chapter VII-5











               VII.4.1       Product: Timeliness


               The timeliness of the products is summarized in Table 3. The
               table lists product lead time, defined here as the time between
               the first issuance of a product alerting of high water potential
               and the time when flooding was first reported. The use of the
               time when flooding was first reported is made necessary due to
               the sparsity of information on when flooding actually began in
               many of the flooded areas. Of the nine areas listed in the
               table, real-time stage data were available in only five areas.
               Of those five areas, two areas had flooding on streams other than
               the gauged streams. Thus, only three of the flooded areas had
               real-time stage data that were indicators of the flooding in the
               area. These three areas are the Seward area, Kenai River, and
               western Susitna basin.


               Table 3. Listing of Product lead times for flooded areas


                                            Initial Notification           Flooding      Hours of
                     Location           Type      Issuance  Date/Time   Start   Date/Time Lead Time

               *Seward Area             Watch        09/19  04:00  PM   09/20   08:00 AM     16
                Girdwood Area           Warning      09/20  12:40  PM   09/20   12:40 PM      0
               *Chugach Streams         Statement    09/20  08:30  PM   09/21   11:30 AM     15
               *Kenai River             Watch        09/20  03:15  PM   09/21   08:30 AM     17.25
               *Western Susitna   Basin Watch        09/21  10:30  AM   09/21   02:00 PM      3.5
                Valdez Area             Warning      09/21  12:30  PM   09/21   12:30 PM      0
                Knik River              Watch        09/21  03:00  PM   09/22   11:00 AM     20
                Cordova Area            Warning      09/21  05:00  PM   09/21   05:00 PM      0
               *Tonsina Area            Watch        09/22  11:00  AM   09/22   11:00 AM      0

               * indicates areas with   real-time stage data

               The product lead times range from 0 hours              to over 17 hours. The
               areas with 0 hour lead time are areas containing no real-time
               stream gauges except for the Tonsina area, where a gauge on the
               Tonsina River is read daily. Flooding in that area was minor
               along a tributary to the Tonsina River., no flooding along the
               Tonsina River was reported. The areas of greatest impact at
               Seward and along the Kenai River had 16 hours or more of lead
               time.


               Another limitation in documenting the details of flooding in
               data-sparse areas was when significant damage occurred on streams
               due to debris flows rather than water inundation. The bridge
               failure on Hunter Creek was attributed to debris accumulating on
               the bridge pier that caused erosive velocities to damage the
               approaches, which led to loss of the bridge. Hunter Creek was
               reported to have remained in its banks throughout the event.
               Other Knik River tributaries caused road closures due to debris
               that clogged the channel and spread over the road. Criteria need
               to be developed to identify the potential for debris threats in

                                      Warning Services: Chapter VII-6










       high intensity rainfall events.


       Vii.4.2   Product: Information Content


       The content of the watch and warning products was appropriate for
       the data-sparse areas affected by the flooding. During post flood
       interviews, a common complaint of those impacted by the flood
       centered around "lack of information." Forecast staff in both
       the RFC and WSFO telefaxed and phoned information to EOCs, river
       observers and callers. Many of those directly impacted by the
       flood, however, were without specifics on "how much higher the
       water was going to get," "when the rain would end," etc.

       The products for the areas with no real-time river gauges to
       provide a reference were by necessity somewhat vague on the
       details of the water levels, but they contained reasonable
       information on the rainfall timing and qualitative amount. The
       products for areas with real-time stream gauges specified the
       reported stages and the estimated time of crest. These products
       were not specific on the crest stage forecast except during the
       latter portion of the flooding on the Kenai River. Stage
       forecasts then were provided for the next 24 hours at the three
       gauge locations along the Kenai River.

       The lack of specifics is due to the sparsity of precipitation
       data in the headwaters of the flooding streams, which minimized
       the capability to quantify the runoff volumes, and the large
       ungauged tributary streams in the drainage basin contributing
       unknown amounts of flow. Additional rain and stream gauges
       combined with increased use of radar and other remote sensing
       techniques should increase the information for making more
       specific forecasts in future events.

       Another concern expressed by some residents in flooded areas was
       that they had never been in a flood before and did not know what
       to expect. They indicated that potential impacts such as
       contamination of wells, overtopping of septic systems, or
       possible erosion of inundated roads should be stated to give them
       guidance on actions that they should take in such an event. The
       RFC had been directed only weeks before the flood to remove the
       call to action statements from all products and thus did not
       include any guidance statements in the products.

       During post event interviews, emergency management officials and
       residents in the flooded areas agreed that "call to action"
       statements are valuable as long as they are relevant to events
       taking place. Action statement content can be coordinated
       between the operations staff and the emergency services agencies


                        Warning Services: Chapter VII-7











            to make them more effective. The coordination can be done as a
            preparedness activity before events or during events as long as
            there is sufficient time.


            VII.5     WSFO Warning Services


            The WSFO products included flood watch and warning information in
            forecasts and special statements. No flood watches or warnings
            were issued by the WSFO during the hours when the RFC was not in
            operation. The WSFO provided updates to the RFC on the
            meteorological conditions, kept the NOAA Weather Radio up to
            date, and answered telephone calls from the public.

            The new Service Hydrologist had in the summer of 1995 included a
            list of the precipitation gauge identifiers specific to the RFC
            precipitation gauge network in the WSFO Hydrology Manual. There
            had been insufficient opportunity for the WSFO staff to become
            familiar with the new identifiers. This event has already
            improved the familiarity. Routine hydrology drills and periodic
            operations manual reviews will re-enforce the familiarity.

            Mudslides along the steep Alaskan terrain often occur in heavy
            rain events. RFC hydrologists identified this potential on
            Kodiak Island during the rainstorm on the previous weekend and
            during this storm and worked with the Anchorage forecasters to
            include mention of mudslides in special weather statements.
            There is no formal mudslide watch or warning statement that is
            issued by the Weather Service. These and avalanche warnings are
            understood to be the responsibility of the State Department of
            Public Safety.

            In the spirit of all-hazard response partnerships, the NWS should
            cooperate with the State Department of Public Safety and include
            mudslide threat information in heavy precipitation and flood
            products as a result of the coordination.

















                            Warning Services: Chapter VII-8









                                Chapter VIII


                               Dissemination




       VIII.1         Introduction


       The NWS Alaska Region flood response assessment team met with
       emergency services groups following the flood event. The team
       discussed with these groups the dissemination of NWS products to
       the ADES, the emergency services in the Boroughs and EOCs, and to
       residents in south central Alaska. The team also discussed the
       flow of information back to the NWS.


       VIII.2         Flood Area Demographics


       Local demographics have to be considered everywhere the NWS
       provides services. Services need to account for climate
       characteristics, weather and water sensitivities, geography,
       population demographics, political organization, commerce,
       transportation, and communications infrastructure.

       Alaska is politically organized into Boroughs, although the state
       is not completely covered by Boroughs. Non-Borough areas are
       Federal government land areas, i.e., Bureau of Land Management,
       Fish and Wildlife Refuge, National Forest, which are quite
       extensive and are very sparsely settled.

       The Boroughs each have an emergency services unit. The two
       Boroughs most significantly impacted by this flood event were the
       Kenai Peninsula (pop. 45,000) and the Matanuska-Susitna (pop.
       45,000). The population in these Boroughs is not at all
       remarkable in numbers relative to our fellow states. For Alaska,
       though, these are concentrations of a relatively large
       population.

       NWS public services are provided in zone and local forecast
       areas. Zones are not aligned with the Boroughs, as some zones
       and counties are in other Regions. The zones are fit to the
       climatology as much as possible, are quite large, and have very
       sparse population. The local forecasts serve the population
       centers. For example in the flood impacted areas, local
       forecasts are prepared for Seward, Kenai, Homer, Valdez, Willow,
       Talkeetna, Palmer, and Cordova. A large part of the Matanuska-
       Susitna Borough is currently not within a zone or served by local
       forecasts, simply because the population is so sparse. The RFC
       has stated a requirement for a Susitna basin zone forecast within


                         Dissemination: Chapter VIII-1









            the past year.

            Specific characteristics:


                                 Kenai Peninsula Boroua


            The two population centers impacted by the flood in the Kenai
            Peninsula Borough were Seward (pop. 3,000) and Kenai/Soldotna
            (pop. 10,000). These two centers are part of the Kenai Peninsula
            Borough which has a total population of 44,411. Homer (pop.
            4,300) is the other major population center in the Borough. This
            means roughly 30,000 residents are scattered outside these three
            cities.


            Seward and Homer are served by NWR transmitters operated by one
            of the two NWR consoles at the Anchorage WSFO. These locations
            for the NWR transmitters were based on the intent to support the
            maximum number of marine customers. Kenai, while it is on the
            Cook Inlet to the Gulf of Alaska, has only a very small salt
            water marine customer base compared to Seward and Homer.

            There are 4 AM/FM radio stations in Seward and 10 in
            Kenai/Soldotna. Cable television is the primary method for
            access to television programming. The Rural Area Television
            Network (RATNET), which is operated by the state, is also
            available.


            The Kenai/Soldotna population has soared, by Alaskan standards,
            in recent years in response to year-round recreation and commerce
            growth. The Kenai salmon fishery is world famous and the living
            environment has been discovered as desirable which has attracted
            many new residents. This growth will continue.


                                Matanuska-Susitna Boroua


            The major population centers in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough
            (pop. 45,000) are Palmer (pop. 3,500) and Wasilla (pop. 4,000).
            Just as in the Kenai Peninsula Borough, most of the population
            (37,500) is not concentrated in cities. The Borough population
            numbers are on a slow upswing. Palmer and Wasilla are regarded
            as Anchorage commuting centers, both roughly 65 miles from
            Anchorage mostly along a limited access highway.

            There are no NWR transmitters which reliably reach the residents
            in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The Anchorage transmitter,
            located in downtown Anchorage, provides only fringe reception in
            the southernmost sections of the Borough.




                              Dissemination: Chapter VIII-2









       Most of Anchorage's 21 AM/FM radio stations reach Wasilla and
       Palmer. Television is generally received over cable.


                            Valdez/Cordova Boroucth


       Valdez (pop. 4,000) and Cordova (pop. 2,500) are both marine
       communities embedded along the coastal mountains surrounding the
       famous Prince William Sound. Valdez is well-known as the
       terminus of the Alaska oil pipeline, an oil tanker embarkation
       port, and is usually the recipient of more than 600 inches of
       snow every year. Cordova is a fishing village that
       climatologically receives large amounts of rain (173.36
       inches/year in town, 91.05 inches/year 20 miles east at the FAA
       airport site).

       The Weather Service Office (WSO) at Valdez provides the NWR
       service which is broadcast over transmitters in each city.
       Again, it is primarily the marine customer who is the target of
       the NWR.



       VIII.3         Dissemination in Alaska


       The NWWS in Alaska has three subscribers: (1) the NWS subsidized
       service to the ADES, (2) the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) outlet at
       the 17th District Headquarters in Juneau, and (3) the Associated
       Press (AP). The AP service is the primary source of NWS products
       for the broadcast and print media. Weather products can be
       "bumped" on the AP service by higher priority news, such as
       election results.


       The dissemination of routine weather information to most of south
       central Alaska residents is accomplished primarily by a
       combination of commercial radio, television and newspaper media.
       However, commercial radio stations in smaller communities are
       generally not staffed 24 hours a day. Television is limited to
       one pre-programmed channel in some areas. This was the case
       during the flood event.

       The Alaska Weather Line (AWL) was established by the Alaska
       Region in May 1995. The AWL is a toll free telephone weather
       information service available throughout Alaska. NWS WSOs record
       weather information on the AWL, including general public
       forecasts, marine weather forecasts, watches, warnings, and more.
       Alaskan residents can call 1-800-472-0391 at any time to get the
       latest weather information for many areas in the state. Weather
       information for south central Alaska, including RFC information,
       is not yet available on the AWL.


                         Dissemination: Chapter VIII-3










            VIII.4    Dissemination during the Flood Event


            The two primary customers for NWS products during the flood were
            (1) the general public, and (2) the emergency services agencies.
            The products issued by the WSFO/RFC and disseminated to the two
            customers may be the same, but the weather and flood information
            requirements are different for each of the customers. The
            dissemination issues during the flood for each of the two
            customers are described.



            VIII.4.1 Dissemination to the Public


            Interviews with emergency management staff in the boroughs and
            with local residents indicated that weather and flood forecast
            information was very limited overall. Residents in the
            Kenai/Soldotna area, the Matanuska/Susitna valley, and Girdwood
            are out of range of existing NWR broadcasts. Bits and pieces of
            weather information were picked up from commercial radio and
            television stations, word of mouth, and mostly by simply watching
            flood conditions and reacting to them. They did not know what to
            expect next, nor how long existing conditions were expected to
            last.


            Due to the remoteness of several of the affected locations,
            notification was accomplished by some residents going door to
            door to pass along limited information. In the spirit of living
            in Alaska, they fended for themselves.

            Commercial radio station hours of operation are limited in many
            of the flooded areas. Few, if any, of the stations are staffed
            24 hours a day. During the flooding event, staffing hours were
            increased, but few, if any, stations went to a full 24 hour
            operation. They relied upon the AP service or phone calls to and
            from an emergency management agency tc;'receive weather
            information for broadcast. Most residents know that their local
            radio station(s) are not staffed 24 hours a day.

            Television, whether received over cable or via antenna, was not a
            good source of NWS flood information. While there was television
            media attention paid to the impact of the floods, there was
            virtually no distribution of NWS products over television.

            This was not an Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) event.
            Therefore, no television or radio broadcast was interrupted by
            EBS. It may not have even mattered. As an example, the flooded
            Kenai Keys community along the Kenai River has few full-time
            residents. The Keys is mostly recreation homes. The people in


                              Dissemination: Chapter VIII-4










       residence in the Keys or who had homes in the Keys, but were not
       staying there, did not "hear" NWS products. Few of the Keys
       residents who were staying in the Keys routinely listen to the
       radio or television. Some residents have marine VHF radios *
       Dissemination of products to such hard to reach customers is a
       challenging task.

       Access to flood information via telephone was not easy. The
       demand far exceeded the capability to deliver the information.
       The AWL with its wide area, toll free access to fresh weather
       product recordings did not include south central Alaska products
       at the time of the flood.


       VIII.4.2 Dissemination to the Emercrency Service Offices


       NWS products, including flood watches, warnings, and statements
       issued by WSFO Anchorage and the RFC, are distributed directly to
       the ADES EOC on Ft. Richardson via the NWWS. The ADES does not
       automatically process the products received from the NWS over the
       NWWS. The ADES staff transfer the products onto the new
       Emergency Services Information System (ESIS) the ADES is starting
       to implement. The transfer is accomplished through a manual
       search of the products for significant weather information, such
       as advisories, watches, warnings, or statements. Once located,
       they "copy/paste" the selected information into the ESIS. The
       ADES staff did not have a comprehensive knowledge of NWS product
       headers and contents.


       The ESIS is based on "First Class" electronic mail software. The
       system is a dial-in communications link between the ADES EOC on
       Ft. Richardson and the Anchorage Emergency Service Office, and
       the Kenai and Mat-Su Boroughs. This was in place during the
       flood. Since the flood, the ADES has added many fire stations
       onto the system. The fire stations in the smaller communities,
       like Girdwood, serve as EOCs during emergency events such as the
       flood.


       The NWS announces only watches and warnings over the National
       Warning Service (NAWAS). These are received at some emergency
       management borough offices or their dispatch centers depending on
       the time of day. NWS statements, issued at least every six hours
       when watches and/or warnings are in effect, are not announced.

       EOCs activated in smaller communities like Girdwood during this
       flood event were not linked to NAWAS. Dissemination from the
       ADES to local authorities in these samller communities during the
       flood was by telephone and telefax. NWS products were
       subsequently passed on to local agencies and residents via


                         Dissemination: Chapter VIII-5










            telephone fan-out and telephone fax.
                                                                                  v

            Emergency management staff relied upon information from field
            reports from residents, agencies, and work crews as to what was
            happening in the flooded areas. Some of this information was
            included in the ESIS information database.























































                             Dissemination: Chapter VIII-6









                                                      Appendix I


                                      Operations Chronology of Events


           The chronology of operations events and excerpts from RFC/WSFO
           products begins on September 12 and ends October 2, 1995. Time
           is in Alaska Daylight time, which is UTC-8 hours:



           Tuesday, September 12


                   WSFO Anchorage Ice Forecaster Russ Page mentions to KTUU Channel 2 Weathercaster Jackie
                   Purcell, "It will take about 9 days for the effects of Typhoon "Oscar" to reach south
                   central Alaska."


           Thursday, September 14


           0800    At the end of the midnight shift, Meteorologist-in-Charge Robert Hopkins and Lead
                   Forecaster Joel Curtis discussed the potential for heavy rains in south central Alaska.


           Friday, September 15



           0800    Lead Forecaster Joel Curtis on midnight shift mentions heavy rains expected across areas
                   near Prince William Sound in State Forecast Discussion (FPAK20 PANC). He also uses
                   satellite loops from the Japanese GMS to identify moisture feed around ex-typhoon "Oscar."

           1600    RFC issues Bradley Lake Hydroelectric Project product to Homer Electric refering to "heavy
                   rain possible toward the middle of next week."




           Saturday, Septembe@ 16


           0311    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "UPR LVL MSTR STRM FROM TYPHOON OSCAR MOVG
                   TWDS THIS LOW ... W/PLOW ALF BCMG SE OVR MOST OF FCST AREA. BERING SEA LOW BCMS UPR TROF A
                   LTTL FURTER W & AN UPR LOW CNTR    ESTABLSHD ABT 400 NM S OF ADQ. GOTTA ACCPT THIS CAUSE
                   ANALYSES..TREND..& SATL PIX ALL SUPPORT THIS IDEA. ... LONGR TERM: MRF INSISTS THAT UPR
                   LOW WELL S OF ADQ WILL MOV INTO    BERING BY THU W/STG SSE JETSTRM DVLPG OVR CNTRL & ERN FCST
                   AREA FOR HVY RAIN."


           1500    RFC issues Hydro-meteorological    Discussion (HMD) indicating tropical moisture expected to
                   impact Alaska beginning Monday. Excerpts:


           HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE     STATE OF ALASKA
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK


           300 PM SEPT 16 1995


           WET SOILS IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. TROPICAL
           MOISTURE FROM TYPHOON OSCAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALASKA BEGINNING MONDAY. (16/1700)


           A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF ALASKA IS KEEPING MOST OF THE STATE
           RELATIVELY DRY THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL
           MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL
           AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ON KODIAK ISLAND, WITH AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES ACCUMULATING
           THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


           RECENT RAINFALL IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS SATURATED SOILS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
           WILL THUS CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAN WOULD
           NORMALLY BE EXPECTED.


           FREEZING LEVELS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA RANGE FROM ABOUT 6000 FT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS TO 12000 FT
           IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS, WITH SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. FREEZING LEVELS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
           ARE ABOUT 6000 TO 9000 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
           FREEZING LEVELS IN INTERIOR ALASKA RANGE FROM ABOUT 6000 FT IN WESTERN SECTIONS To 2000 FT IN


                                                      Appendix I-1















                   EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 4000 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN MOST
                   AREAS. NORTH SLOPE FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 8000 FT BY SUNDAY. (16/1700)


                   ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS ...
                   RIVER AND STREAMS BEGAN TO FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM THEIR HIGH LEVELS EARLIER IN THE
                   WEEK, BUT LEVELS REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
                   FORECAST FOR THE AREA, THEREFORE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
                   WEEKEND. (16/2200)


                   WEST
                   SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
                   MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NOW FALLING AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND     GLACIAL CONTRIBUTIONS DIMINISH.
                   MOST STREAMS SHOULD EXPERIENCE FALLING TO STEADY LEVELS OVER THE     NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (16/2200)


                   NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
                   RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS IN THE SEWARD AREA WERE FALLING SATURDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD
                   CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. (16/2200)


                   COPPER RIVER BASIN...
                   HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN THE LOWER COPPER RIVER BASIN DID NOT OCCUR AND LEVELS ARE DROPPING ON MOST
                   STREAMS IN THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ON STREAMS THAT GET MOST OF THEIR FLOW FROM GLACIAL MELT. THIS
                   IS A RESULT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. (16/2200)


                   SDL/LAR




                   1600    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "INHOUSE COMMUNICATIONS/COMPUTER PROBLEMS
                           STILL EXIST. THERE MAY BE SOME DELAY ON IN-HOUSE GENERATED PRODUCTS..


                   Sunday, September 17


                   0253    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "...ETA AND NGM FAIRLY CLOSE AGRMNT IN BOTH
                           MASS FIELD AND MOISTURE FCS BOTH MDLS SHOW GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FOR KODIAK ISL SUN WITH
                           DRIER AIR MASS MOVING OVR ISLAND SUN NGT AND MON AS FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES SLOLY EWD. LOOKS
                           LIKE GOOD SHOT OF RAIN FOR SEWARD AND UPSLOPE AREAS KENAI PEN MON AND MON NGT AS MOIST..
                           QSTNRY SELY FLOW BCMS ESTABLISHED OVR THE WESTERN N GLF CST.-


                   1133    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts; "AVN LOOKS TO BE BETTER OF THE FIELD MDLS.
                           RIDGE OVR CANADA CONTS SE DRIFT NR 36 HRS. 986 MB LOW S OF THE AK PEN MOVS TO CTUST N OF
                           THE PRIBILOFS BY 4 PM MON WITH A CNTRL PRES IN THE LOW 9801S. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
                           OCSAR MOVS TO NR 50N 160W WITH A CNTRL PRES IN THE LOW 9601S 4 AM WED. IN THE NEAR
                           TERM..BRISK E-SE WNDS Wlr.L WORK INTO THE NRN GLFAK..S CNTRL AK THRU TDY. BRISK WINDS OVR
                           BRISTOL BAY/SW AK WILL INTENSIFY THIS THRU TNGT AS LOW PUSHES N OF AK PEN. WNDS ADO WILL
                           DMSHG THIS EVE. RA SHOULD DMSH OVR ADO LTR THIS AFTN AS OCFNT PUSHES N. RA SHOULD SPREAD
                           TO S CNTRL AK/N GLFAK THIS EVE/TNGT AND CONT THRU MON.


                           .ADQ..RA SHOULD DMSH IN INTENSITY LTR THIS AFTN. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THRU THIS
                           AFTN. I WILL CALL YOU ON MUD SLIDE POTENTIAL."


                   1453    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Disccusion excerpts: "NEXT WK WV OVR THE NE PAC MOVS TO THE NRN
                           GLFAK TUE. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON OCSAR MOVS TO NR 5ON 160W WITH A CNTRL PRES IN THE LOW
                           9601S 4 AM WED. BRISK E-SE WNDS WILL WORK INTO THE NRN GLFAK..S CNTRL AX THRU TNGT. AS
                           EXPECTED..THE N GLFAK CST AND WNDWARD EXPOSURES OF S CNTRL AK SHOULD CATCH MOST OF THE
                           PCPN..STRONG DOWNSLOPING WNDS SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE MINIMAL PCPN OVR VALLEY SECTIONS OF
                           SCNTRAL AK TNGT AND MON. CONT SE FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WITH CONT THE THREAT OF RA
                           ALG THE N GLFAK CST THRU TUE.


                           .ADQ..LKS LIKE HVR RA OVR..SHWRS MON..BUT WK WV SE OF MAIN CNTR MOVS N AND PRODUCES E-SE
                           FLOW MON NGT/TNGT.


                           .VWS..RA DVLPG AFT MDNGT AND CONTG MON. 850-700 MB LOW CONTS SE THRU TUE..SOOO THREAT OF
                           PCPN CONTS."


                   1500    The HMD Flood Potential discussion expects heavy rain for Monday in the Western Gulf of
                           Alaska that may persist for several days and may cause flooding in Seward.

                   2125    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "FORMER TYPHOON OSCAR WILL S OF KAMCHATKA PEN
                           WILL BE AST 300 S ADK MON AFTN AND ABT 450 S CDB AS A 966 MB BY TUE AFTN. 1010 MB LOW NR
                           37N AND 152W WILL GRADLY MOV UP E SIDE OF FORMER TYPHOON TO BE A 982 MB LOW 250 SE ADQ BY
                           TUE AFTN. WND AND RA MOVG BACK INTO KODIAK ISL TUE."


                                                             Appendix I-2















                    Rain Sunday night and Monday in the Seward through Girdwood area is not heavy, but it sets
                    up a wet antecedent condition going into the big event.


            Monday, September 18


            0321    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "HI AMP UPR AIR PTRN CONTG AS BLKG RDG CONTS
                    TO BLD FM ERN PAC NWD THRU NW CANADA..RSLTG IN STG WRM ADVCTN NWD ACRS WRM GLF AK INTO SRN
                    AND SWRN AK..PDS HVY RA..SPCLY SRN EXPSRS..STG WNDS AND ABV NRML TMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS. AT
                    SFC NOT MUCH DIFF IN MODELS ON HNLDG LOW MVG NWWD FM AK PEN INTO ME BERING SEA THRU 36 HRS
                    WITH SLGT DIFF AT 48 HRS ON CNTRL PRES..LCTNS OF OLD TYPHOON OSCAR AND SMALLER LOW DVLPG
                    AHD OF OLD TYPHOON. WSOIS USE AVN 48 HR SPC PNL. SAT IMGRY SHOWS EXTV MOISTURE FEEDING
                    INTO THIS DVLPG LOW..CNTRD ABT 37N 162W AT 06Z TUE..AND THIS WILL BE A BIG RA/WND
                    PRDCR..AS MNTD ABV WILL GO WITH AVN ATTX ON THIS SYS. AT 60 HRS..4AM WED..AVN ROTATES
                    THIS LOW OVR KODIAK ISL..AT ABT 978MB WITH FNT ONSHR LWR KENAI PEN AND EWD. DRY SLOT VSBL
                    OVR N-CNTRL GLF FM S SIDE OF KODIAK ISL TO ABT 90 S MDO..SEC BAND MOISTURE APCHG 55N ..SO
                    RA PRBLY END OR AT LEAST BCM LGT INTNT GLP AX BRDG AREAS BY LATE MRNG THEN DVLPG AGAIN
                    TNGT..THEN IMPVG A BIT LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE AHD OF NEXT SYS."


                    Midnight shift Lead forecaster Donald Finch briefs RFC Development and Operations
                    Hydrologist Larry Rundquist that the 6 - 8 inch QPF by the NMC models was probably
                    conservative.


            1500    The HMD Flood Potential discussion expects heavy rain Tuesday night and Wednesday in
                    Western Gulf of Alaska that may cause flooding in Seward.

            1540    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "OLD OCFNT NOW EXTDG FM XTRM ME GLF AK-JST S
                    TURNAGAIN ARM-THENCE WWD ARC..CONTG N AND NW DSIPTG NXT 12 HRS. FAIRLY NARROW AREA RA
                    INVOP FNT..MORE SHWRY W AK RNG AND XPCD BE SO IN COPPER RVR BASIN. ... VIGOROUS 979MB LOW
                    INVOF 38N 153W NOW BGG TURN NWD..XPCD VERIFY 12Z AVN PROG WELL..THEN TO MR 53N 153W AS
                    ARND 970MB CNTR OOZ WED WITH SHORT OCFNT NE TO MDT WMPNT IN ARC THRU 55N 150W THENCE ENE
                    TO 180 S YAK SAME TIME. CDFNT TO LIE IN ARC THRU 53N 145W BY OOZ WED. "BULLS EYE" PRECIP
                    MOVG TWD E AND SE EXPOSURES KENAI PEN AND KODIAK IS. TUE. WAY OUT W..RMNS "OSCAR- VRY
                    DFCLT TO SEE ON I.R ... ESTMD ARND 966MBS..180 S AHT CONTG ON EWD TRACK..XPCD LIE MR 48K
                    166W OOZ WED WITH FNTL SYS IN E AND S ARC."


                    ADQ 047/W/SE15         054/SR/ENE30G 052/+R/E35     056/+R/E35 WOULD HDLN STG E WND AND RVY RA
                    AT TIMES LATER TUE/TUE MGT AND WED.


                    VWS 047/W/LW           058/E6W/LW     047/8R/LW     055/7R/LW LYNN..THANKS FOR CALL ON 2C..AS
                    USUAL YOU'RE RIGHT ON TOP OF SITUATION. CHC SHWRS TUE MOSTLY FOR MRG..MAY BE AT LEAST
                    SHORT BREAK IN SYSTEMS TUE. INCOMING WMFNT SO STG..RA XPCTD LATE TUE AND TUE NGT..DESPITE
                    ERLY WNDS ALF."


            2125    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "COMPUTER PRPBLEMS AT NMC HAVE CAUSE MODEL
                    RUNS TO BE DELAYED. I HAVE GOTTEN ONLY ETA MDL SO FAR AND WILL GO WITH IT.


                    SYNOPSIS ... STLT PIX SHOWS INTENSE LOW 200 S ADK IS MOVG E AT ABT 40 KTS. SECOND LOW S OF
                    GLF AK IS MOVG N AT AST 30 KTS. 968 MB LOW S CNTRL AUTNS WILL SLOW DOWN TO BE ABT 300 N14 S
                    Z11 BY 4PM TUE AND WILL CONT TO NOV E TO 450 NM S-SDP BY 4AM WED. 977 MB LOW OVR NE PAC
                    WILL NOV TO 300 NM S KODIAK ISL BY 4PM TUE..TO ABT 140 NM S SDP BY 4AM WED AND WILL MERG
                    WILL MERG WILL OLD ALUTN LOW ABT 300 NM SSE SNP BY 4PM WED. ASSOCD PNT WILL NOV N WITH LOW
                    TO LIE ACRS AX PEN..SRN BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK IS@, BY TUE EVE. FNT WILL CONT TO NOV NW TO
                    LIE ACRS ERN ALUTNS..SRN Y-K DELTA..LWR COOK INLET THEN TURN SE INTO CNTRL GLF AK. AND
                    WILL LIE ACRS NORTON SD KUSKOKWIM VLY AND COOK INLET WED AFTN. WNDS INCRO OVR KODIAK ISL
                    AND AK PEN LATE MGT AND TUE ARD OF FNT WILL ONLY SLWLY DMSHG BHD FNT. GUSTY WNDS MOVG INTO
                    COOK INLET..BRISTOL BAY AND Y-K DELTA TUE MGT AND INTO KUSKOKWIM VLY WED. STG WNDS ALG
                    CNTRL GLF CST INCRG AGN TUE. RA MOVG BACK INTO KODIAK ISL AND AX PEN TUE AND WILL SPRD
                    INTO COOK INLET.. BRISTOL BAY AND Y-K DELTA TUE MGT. RA OVR CNTRL GLF CST WILL DMSH TO
                    SHWR TUE MRNG BUT WILL BCM STEADY RA BY LATE TUE. OCNL RA MOVG INTO KUSKOKWIM VLY..SUSITNA
                    VLY AND COPPER RVR BASIN TUE NGT."


            Tuesday, September 19


            0312    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Disccusion excerpts: "HI AMP BLCKG PTRN CONTG WITH MRF SHWG SHIFT
                    TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACRS NRN PAC/SRN BERING BY SAT. IMDT FCST PRBqLM IS STG SFC DVLPMNT
                    APCHG SW GLF AK EARLY THIS MRNG AHD OF OLD TYPHOON OSCAR. LATE 06Z SHIP ABT 90 N OF LOW
                    SUGGESTS CNTRL PRES PRBLY NR 972MB WHICH IS ALREADY DPR THAN MODEL 12Z PRJTN. 0746Z DMSP
                    SHOWS CNTR NR 44N 153W AND LEADING EDGE CI TO 55N 150W. THIS MAY BE A BIT AHD OF MODEL
                    TRACK..ALL IN GNL AGRMNT..BUT DMBLG WITH OLD OSCAR FCST TO BEGIN BY 24 HRS..SO WILL STICK


                                                          Appendix 1-3















                           WITH MODELS ATTM AND GO WITH ETA..SLTLY BETTER ON CNTRL PRES..972MB NR 52N 155W AT OOZ WED
                           WITH OCLN THRU 53N 150W AND ESE..OLD OSCAR NR 48N 168W AT 960MB. AT 06Z WED..LOW NR 53N
                           160W..965MB WITH OCLN THRU S SKJ-57H 150W AND ESE..DMBLG CNTR TO 48N 165W..961MB. AT 36
                           HRS..12Z WED..LOW TO 53N 161W..961MB WITH OCLN THRU S CDB-N ADO AND ESE THRU 60 S MDO. SEC
                           LOW 48N 161W..965MB. AT 48 HRS--OOZ THU..LOW NR CDB AT 971MB WITH WKNG OCLN THRU N
                           BET-PWS AND SEWD. OLD OSCAR..968MB NR 51N 158W AT OOZ THU. DRY SLOT VSBL JUST TO N OF CI
                           EDGE OVR NRN GLF AK..SO SOME IXPRVXNT THIS MRNG THEN HI CLDS MVG OVR KODIAK ISL BY LATE
                           MRNG AND OVR N GLF CST BY MID AFTN. RA/WND BGNG KODIAK BY EARLY AFTN AND N GLF CST BY
                           LATE AFTN. RCMD HI WND WRNG THIS APTN/TNGT FOR AD. HVST RA TNGT.. KODIAK ISL/LWR COOK
                           INLET AND KENAI PEN AND KENAI PEN/PWS WED. SOME HVY RA PSBL W SIDE INLET AND SW SUSITNA
                           VLY LATE TNGT/WED."


                   0929    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "HI AMPLTD UPR FLOW TO RSLT IN ACTV WX PTRN
                           NXT 48 HRS. STG LOW CNTR NR 50N 155W MOVG NNW AND WILL BGN MOVG MR NW AS STGR LOW S OF THE
                           ERN ALUTNS DRPS SE. MDLS AGREE IN MOVG A 960 MB LOW NR CDB BY WED "TN. CI CLD SELD SPRDG
                           RPDLY N ACRS SRN Ar, CST. R TO START AT ANY TIME AD AND THE REST OF SRN CSTL AREAS LTR
                           THIS MRNG OR AFTN. HVY R AD THIS EVE SPRDG TO SRN AND ERN KENAI PEN AS WELL AS PRINCE
                           WILLAM SOUND ARND MDNGT OR SO CONTG THRU WED. PREFNTL WNDS CONT TO INCR AD WITH GUSTS TO
                           60 MPH PSBL THIS EVE WITH IST FNTL PASSAGE AND AGN WED MRNG WITH SCND WVI. WRM AIR ALF TO
                           ALLOW HVY RNS TO FALL AT HIGHER ELEVTNS WHICH WILL ADD TO FLDG PTNTL SRN AX CST FM AD TO
                           CDVI. FCSTS LK GD."


                   1500    River Forecast Center (RFC) issues Bradley Lake Hydroelectric Project product to Homer
                           Electric forecasting heavy rain beginning Tuesday evening and continuing at variable
                           intensities through Thursday with amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. HMD issued at 3
                           p.m. says, "Rain will likely cause flooding in Seward." Flooding is also possible in
                           western Susitna basin.


                   1500    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "NO CHNG FM MRNG SYNOPSIS. TWO INTNS LOWS
                           DXBLG WITH LOW S OF KODIAK IS MOVG XW TO NR CDB BY WED AFTN..CONTG TO NR ST. MATHEW IS WED
                           NGT..BCMG STNRY AS A 965 MB LOW THEREAFTR. 957 MB S OF THE ERN ALUTNS MOVG ESE SWINGS NE
                           ACRS KODIAK IS AS A STG NEG TILT TROF LT WED NGT WITH WNDS PICKING UP AGN ERLY WED EVE.
                           NVST RAIN AD OCRS THIS EVE THRU WED AFTN. BOTH ETA AND NGM PULL DRY SLOT UP ACRS ISLAND
                           LATE WED AFTN FOR A DCR IN OR TEMPORY END OF PCPN INTO EVENING BFR STARTG AGN WITH NXT
                           TROF."


                   1600    RFC issues Flood Watch for Seward area. RFC begins faxing flood products to the Kenai
                           Peninsula Borough, Alaska Division of Emergency Services (ADES), Seward Emergency Managers
                           and the DOT. Faxing to these agencies continues throughout the event.

                           Forecaster Wanda Likens on evening shift coordinates with the RFC on precipitation
                           forecasts.


                   2129    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "NOT MUCH CHG FM PREV DISCS..ALL MODELS IN
                           AGRMNT AND SMLR TO PREV RUNS. MODELS MOVE 960MB LOW AT 55N/158W TO 60N/175W BY THURS AFTN
                           WITHOUT MUCH CHG IN INTNSTY. SCND 956MB LOW AT 45N/167W OPENS UP INTO A NEG TILT TROF WED
                           AFTN WHICH ROTATES OVR AD BY THURS AFTN. RAIN OVR AD AND SRN KENAI PEN SPRDG NWD WITH
                           RAIN BGNG OVR N GLF CST THIS HOUR. FCSTS LK GD."


                           Significant wind damage reported from Girdwood.


                   Wednesday, September 20


                   0314    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "AT 500MB THE STG BLKG PTRN IS FCST TO CONT
                           THRU FRI WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHFTD FM 130W-12OW WITH HI AMP NEG TILT TROF FM NRN BERING
                           ACRS AX PEN AT 72 HRS..4PM FRI. EUROPEAN MDLS CONT TO BE UNAVBL IN AX AND MRF NOT IN AT
                           PRESENT-BUT SEEMS LIKELY WITH STG WLYS DVLPG OVR KAMCHATKA AND WRN BERING BY 72 HRS THAT
                           UPR TROF SHD BE KICKED EWD ACRS STATE OVER THE WKEND. IN THE SHORT RUN MODELS CONT TO BE
                           IN XCLNT AGRMNT. ETA/AVN HAVE MEAN CNTR ABT 4 MB HIGHER THAN NGM AT 24 HRS AND WILL GO
                           WITH THESE MODELS THRU FCST PD..WSOIS USE AVN PNLS FOR LCTN OF SFC CNTRS THRU 48 HRS.
                           BOTTOM LINE IS MAIN FNTL 33ACLN ZONE IS UNDER STG SLY TET EXTNDG NWD ACRS KODIAK ISL AT THE
                           MOMENT AND WILL SHIFT TO LWR COOK INLET/KENAI PEN BY 4PM WED AND TO PWS BY 4AM THU AND TO
                           ERN N GLF CST BY 4PM THU..GRDLY SHFTG THE HVY..ORGRPHC ENHNCD PCPN EWD. SAT IMGRY SHOWS A
                           THIRD CRCLN CNTR HAS DVLPD AT THE TRIP PT OF THE FNT ASSOCD WITH OLDVYPHOON OSCAR NR 50N
                           155W AT 06Z WED. 0734Z DMSP SHOWS THIS CNTR HAS MVD TO NR 50N 153W WITH XTV AREA OF CLSRTD
                           CUPRM CLDS WITH SMALL EMBBD CBS VSBL..THIS BNDRY SHD MOVE NWD AS CRLCN CNTR MOVES NW TO
                           MERGE WITH LOW NR AX PEN BY THIS AFTN..XPCT HVY SHWRS KODIAK ISL/AK PEN LATE THIS MRNG AND
                           THIS AFTN.


                           ADQ..PNT HAS MVD N OF STN AND WNDS DRPG OFF..HWVR LETS HOLD WND ADVSRY THRU EARLY AFTN AS


                                                             Appendix I-4














                    THEY ARE LIKLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AHD OF NEXT SYS.
                    AKN ... CONT ADVSRY TIL 8AM..THEN WNDS DMSNG SLOWLY.
                    VWS ... MTN RA HVY AT TIMES TNGT/THU."


            0800    RFC issues Flood Warning for Seward area.



            FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE
            SEWARD AREA.
            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            800 AM WED SEPT 20 1995


            ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


            THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPGRADED THE FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIVER AND
            STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA. THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER
            21.


            HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND IN PARKING LOTS. THE RESURRECTION
            RIVER ROSE FROM 8.0 FT YESTERDAY MORNING TO 14.0 FT THIS MORNING. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES IS
            EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
            WITH RAIN DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT FURTHER RISES IN THE WATER LEVELS OF SEWARD AND
            VICINITY RIVERS AND STREAMS.


            A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


            THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SEPT 20 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


            imp




            FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA.
            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            1130 AM WED SEPT 20 1995



            THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIVER AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4
            PM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21. HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND IN
            PARKING LOTS. THE RESURRECTION RIVER ROSE FROM 8.0 FT YESTERDAY MORNING TO 15.4 FT LATE THIS
            MORNING. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE: EXIT GLACIER ROAD, LOWELL POINT ROAD, AND OLD MILL ROAD.
            REPORTS ALSO INDICATE HIGH WATER IN BOX CANYON.


            RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR
            WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH RAINFALL INTENSITY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
            FURTHER RISES IN THE WATER LEVELS OF SEWARD AND VICINITY RIVERS AND STREAMS.


            A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


            THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SEPT 20 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


            imp




            1240    RFC issues Flood Warning for Girdwood.



            ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


            FLOOD WARNING FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            1240 PM ADT WED SEPT 20 1995


            A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
            THURSDAY SEPT 21.


            HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SEVER FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF GIRDWOOD. WATER FROM GLACIER CREEK AND OTHER
            STREAMS IN THE AREA HAVE INUNDATED MANY OF THE ROADS IN TOWN AND THE SCHOOL IS BEING EVACUATED.
            HIGH WATER ON GLACIER CREEK IS CAUSING EROSION OF THE BANKS AND THERE IS MUCH DEBRIS
            IN THE STREAM. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED SOME MUD AND LAND SLIDES. PRESENTLY THERE IS CONCERN



                                                      Appendix 1-5














                  THAT THE CHAIR 4 TOWER AT ALEYSKA MAY TOPPLE. HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN HAVE ALSO
                  CAUSED MANY POWER LINES TO BREAK.


                  HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
                  CONDITIONS TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



                  A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                  THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY SEPT 20 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                  ADA




                  HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA


                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  0300 PM ADT WED SEP 20 1995



                  WET SOILS IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
                  EFFECT FOR SEWARD AND SURROUNDING RIVERS THROUGH 4PM THURSDAY. KODIAK HAS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
                  MUD SLIDE ACTIVITY DUE TO MORE RAIN. THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN IS ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING
                  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN EVENT. OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE HAVE A LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL AT THIS
                  TIME. (20/1800)


                  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD REMAIN
                  RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM PROGRESSING
                  EASTWARD, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT RAIN INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST, KODIAK ISLAND AND
                  KENAI PENINSULA. MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE SEWARD AREA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
                  MORE THAN AN INCH FELL IN KODIAK. RECENT RAINFALL IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS SATURATED SOILS AND
                  RAPID RISES ARE NOW BEING EXPERIENCED ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO THE CONTINUED RAIN.


                  LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL IN THE REST OF THE STATE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. RAIN MAY BEGIN IN THE
                  NORHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE LATER ON THURSDAY, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
                  GENERALLY CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
                  WEEK. WARM WINDS IN THE INTERIOR ARE HELPING TO DRY SOILS IN THAT AREA.


                  WARM AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE STATE RAISING FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 9000 FT AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
                  SOUTHEAST, SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA. EVEN AT NOME AND BARROW FREEZING LEVELS ARE OVER
                  6000 FT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS THURSDAY. (20/1800)


                  ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
                  RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE DUE TO SOME MODERATE RAIN IN THE BASIN. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON
                  THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE REGION. (20/2200)


                  WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
                  RAIN RUNOFF WILL CAUSE THE WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS TO BE ON THE RISE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
                  FRIDAY. (20/2200)


                  NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
                  HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE SEWARD AREA. THE FLOOD WARNING WILL
                  CONTINUE THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. A NUMBER OF ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. MORE RAIN IS
                  EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE INTENSITY TAPPERING OFF TOMORROW. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
                  RISE TONIGHT ON MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS. WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE AND STATIONS DOWNSTREAM ARE
                  ALREADY RISING AS 3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. (20/2200)



                  COPPER RIVER BASIN...
                  WATER LEVELS ARE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING EXCEPT MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE WHICH IS ON
                  THE RISE. (20/2200)


                  JMP/ADA



                  1515   RFC issues Flood Watch for Kenai River.


                  FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KENAI RIVER AND OTHER RIVERS IN THE KENAI RIVER
                  BASIN.


                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK


                                                         Appendix 1-6














           315 PM ADT WED SEPT 20 1995


           ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


           THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KENAI RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN
           THE KENAI BASIN. THIS WATCHWILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21.


           APPROXIMATELY 3.0+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE UPPER KENAI RIVER BASIN SINCE TUESDAY
           AFTERNOON. THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING HAS RISEN1.0 FT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND 0.4 FT AT KENAI
           KEYS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. WITH MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
           TONIGHT, BANKFULL CONDITIONS ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE KENAI RIVER. LOW
           LYING AREAS COULD ALSO BE INUNDATED AS HIGH WATER OVERFLOWS AND ERODES RIVER BANKS.


           A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 AM THURSDAY SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           imp




           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           330 PM ADT WED SEPT 20 1995


           A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY SEPT 21.


           HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF GIRDWOOD. WATER FROM AREA CREEKS INUNDATED ROADS IN
           TOWN, BUT WORK CREWS HAVE BUILT UP DIKES AND DIVERTED MUCH OF THE WATER BACK INTO THEIR CHANNELS.
           HIGH WATER ON GLACIER CREEK IS CAUSING EROSION OF THE BANKS AND THERE IS MUCH DEBRIS IN AREA
           STREAMS. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO CAUSED SOME MUD AND LAND SLIDES. HOWEVER, AN EARLIER REPORT THAT
           THE CHAIR 4 TOWER AT ALEYSKA MAY TOPPLE WAS LATER FCUND TO BE IN ERROR. HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED
           WITH THIS RAIN HAVE CAUSED DOWNED POWER LINES AND TEMPORARY OUTAGES AROUND GIRDWOOD.


           WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
           LATER ON THURSDAY.


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM THURSDAY SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           ADA



           1600    RFC begins evening shift operations, ending at 11 p.m.


           2030    RFC issues River Statement for streams draining the Chugach mountains in the Anchorage
                   area.


           2217    WSPO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "MDLS IN FAIR AGRMNT ON POSITION AND XOVMNT
                   OF 962MB LOW..XOVG LOW NW TO 64N/177W BY FRI AFTN. NGM/AVN HAVE LOW CNTR PRES ABT 11MB LWR
                   THAN ETA AT 48 HRS WITH A 978MB CNTR FRI AFTN. NGM/AVN IN AGRXNT ON NXT LOW SW OF THE
                   ALUTNS ... MOVG IT TO ABT 52N/156W BY FRI AFTN AS A 984MB LOW..5HB HIER THAN ETA. ALL XDLS
                   SMLR AT 500MB..KEEPING TH STG BLKG PTRN THRU FRI AFTN WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHFTG FM 130W
                   TO 120W. HI AMP NEG TILT TROF FM NW BERING ACRS AX PEN BY FRI AFTN. 04OIZ SATLT SHOWS PNT
                   THRU NRN COOK INLET WITH GUD DRY SLOT BEHIND FNT. DRY SLOT MOVG OVR KENAI PEN/WRN PWS."


           Thursday , September 21


           0325    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "LTST SAT IXGRY SHOWS FNTL BACLN ZONE CONTG
                   TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD..IN LN WITH NGM 500MB PNLS SHWG JET AXIS..FLAT WV KVG NWD TWD
                   MDO..VSBL ON 0722Z DMSP..SHD HOLD NVY RA OVR KENAI PEN/PWS THRU MRNG HRS..THEN HVY PCPN
                   SHFTG EWD UNDER JET AXIS TO PWS BY AFTN AND ERN N GLF CST FRI. WILL PRBLY DROP HI WND
                   ADVSRYS FOR WRN S CNTRL AK BUT HOLD FOR ERN PWS..AREA TO E FNTL BNDRY."


           0500    Telephones at the WSFO/RFC out of service.


           0730    Telephones back in service.


           0830    RFC issues Flood Warning for Kenai River.



                                                     Appendix 1-7














                   ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


                   FLOOD WARNING FOR KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   830 AM THUR SEPT 21 1995


                   A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER, INCLUDING KENAI LAKE, COOPER LANDING, KENAI KEYS, AND
                   SOLDOTNA.


                   HEAVY RAIN OVER THE UPPER PORTION OF THE KENAI BASIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
                   HAS CAUSED A MAJOR RISE IN WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. THE GAGE AT COOPER
                   LANDING HAS RISEN 2.5 FT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER LEVELS AT COOPER LANDING WILL PROBABLY CREST
                   SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY, WITH A STAGE BETWEEN 14 AND 15 FT. FLOOD STAGE AT COOPER
                   LANDING IS 14.0 FT.


                   MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING AT KENAI KEYS THIS MORNING. RISING STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
                   THROUGH THURSDAY AT KENAI KEYS AND AT SOLDOTNA. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT BOTH KENAI KEYS
                   AND SOLDOTNA TODAY AND FRIDAY.


                   THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA APPEAR TO BE OVER, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN
                   FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY. SMALLER STREAMS SHOULD BEGIN FALLING TODAY, WITH THE KENAI RIVER
                   FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND.


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   imp



                   1030   RFC issues Flood Watch for Western Susitna Valley.


                   1230   RFC issues Flood Warning for streams around Valdez.


                   -IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


                   FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHARDSON HWY NEAR VALDEZ
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   1230 PM THUR SEPT 21 1995


                   THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN THE
                   VICINITY OF VALDEZ. THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM FRIDAY SEPT 23.


                   HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE VALDEZ HAVE RAISED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS CONSIDERABLY. THE
                   TIEKEL AND LOWE RIVERS HAVE RISEN OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND HAVE CAUSED THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO BE
                   CLOSED AT MILE 47 AND 19 RESPECTIVELY. WATER IS OVER THE HIGHWAY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THAT
                   STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY.


                   RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VALDEZ AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
                   TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
                   THURSDAY NIGHT.


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED THURSDAY 7 PM SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   ADA



                   1400   RFC issues upgrade from Flood Watch to Flood Warning for Western Susitna Valley


                   FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   2 PM ADT THU SEP 21 1995


                   ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


                   THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPGRADED THE FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR SKWENTNA AND
                   YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
                   FRIDAY SEPT 22.




                                                             Appendix 1-8














            THE RADAR SHOWED RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH
            STRONG WINDS COMING FROM THE EAST, THE PRECIPITATION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, ONE
            REPORT INDICATES ABOUT 4 IN. FELL THIS MORNING AT FINGER LAKES. RIVERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS
            RAIN, WITH LAKE CREEK RISING BY FIVE FEET.


            A REPORT FROM SKWENTNA INDICATES THE A NUMBER OR ROADS AROUND TOWN ARE UNDERWATER. WATER IS NOT
            UP TO THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME BUT IS STEADILY RISING. A LARGE NUMBER OF LOGS ARE RAFTING DOWN
            THE RIVER, ADDING TO THE FLOODING PROBLEM.


            RADAR IS INDICATING CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
            SUSITNA BASIN. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
            TAPPERING OFF ON FRIDAY.


            THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 8 PM THURSDAY SEPT 21 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


            imp




            1458   WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "IT LKS LIKE LOW S OF KODIAK ISL HAS DSIPTD.
                   MN BAROCLINIC ZN STILL LINK WITH 300 MB JET OVR ERN GLF AK AND ERN MNLD. LOW NR ALUTNS
                   STILL KOVG E WITH CDFNT EXTNDG TO S AND SW OF LOW. SFC TROF ASSOCD WITH LOW WILL SWING N
                   ACRS KODIAK ISL THIS EVE AND ACRS S CNTRL AK FRI MRNG. RDG OVR WRN CANADA WILL BLD INTO
                   SRN AK FRI AND MOV INTO CNTRL INTR SAT. PRESS GRAD ALG CNTRL GLF CST WILL RELAX THRU FRI.
                   OCNL RA/SHWR WILL CONT OVR S CNTRL INTR TNGT AND END FRI MRNG. RA ALG CNTRL GLF CST WILL
                   DMSH TO SHWR BY FRI AFTN. WND ARE STILL LCLY GUSTY ALG CNTRL GLF CST BUT WILL DMSH THRU
                   TNGT.11


            1500   RFC issues Flood Watch for Knik River area.



            HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            0300 PM ADT THU SEP 21 1995


            ... FLOOD POTENTIAL...


            HEAVY RAINS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND IN THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS HAVE CAUSED FLOODING IN THE
            SEWARD AREA, ON THE KENAI RIVER, AT GIRDWOOD IN TURNIGAN ARM, AND STREAMS DRAINING INTO THE
            MATANUSKA RIVER FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
            THE SUSITNA RIVER AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS ALSO HIGH. IN THE REST OF THE SUSITNA AND
            MATANUSKA VALLEYS, ALONG WITH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MODERATE. THE REST OF
            THE STATE IS AT A LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL. (21/1800)


            ... HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...


            THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA
            IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
            HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ON KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA,
            TO DRIFT EASTWARD. RAINS, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL THEREFORE MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTH
            GULF COAST AND YAKUTAT. NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE SEWARD AREA AND IN THE KENAI
            MOUNTAINS. TURNIGAN ARM, GIRDWOOD AREA, RECEIVED MORE THAN 3 INCHES, AS DID PALMER AND CORDOVA.


            RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY ON THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
            NORTH GULF COAST AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.


            LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL IN THE REST OF THE STATE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. RAIN MAY BEGIN IN THE
            NORHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE LATER ON THURSDAY, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
            GENERALLY CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
            THIS WEEK. WARM WINDS IN THE INTERIOR ARE HELPING TO DRY SOILS IN THAT AREA.


            FREEZING LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT THE REST OF THE STATE
            SHOULD SEE FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY SATURDAY. (21/1800)


            ... HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...


            ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
            A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN, INCLUDING THE SKWENTNA AND
            YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. RAIN WAS ENHANCED BY STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE ALASKA
            RANGE CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY FALL SATURDAY AS THE RAIN
            SUBSIDES. (21/2200)


                                                      Appendix 1-9













                  WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
                  HEAVY RAIN IN THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS HAS CAUSED FLOODING OF STREAMS AND RIVERS DRAINING
                  THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. NO FLOODING WAS
                  REPORTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS NEAR HOMER BUT LEVELS THERE ARE ALSO NEAR BANKFUL. THE KENAI RIVER
                  IS FLOODING ALONG NEARLY ITS ENTIRE REACH AND HAS NOT YET CRESTED. STREAMS MAY BEGIN TO FALL
                  LATER THURSDAY BUT RIVERS MAY NOT CREST UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY OR INTO SATURDAY. (21/2200)


                  NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
                  HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE IS A FLOOD
                  WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF SEWARD AND A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
                  RICHARDSON HIGHWAY NEAR VALDEZ. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL CAUSE
                  HIGH WATER ON STREAMS IN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAK LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. (21/2200)


                  COPPER RIVER BASIN...
                  RAIN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL RAISE LEVELS ON STREAMS AND RIVERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
                  BASIN INTO FRIDAY. FALLING STAGES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND. (21/2200)


                  ADA



                  FLOOD STATEMENT FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  300 PM ADT THUR SEPT 21 1995


                  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22.


                  RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN AND AROUND GIRDWOOD. GLAICER CREEK
                  AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE STILL CAUSING MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HEAVY EQUIPMENT OPPERATORS
                  HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DIVERT MUCH OF THE RUNOFF AND ARE CONTINUING TO DO SO. BY LATE THURSDAY, WATER
                  LEVELS IN GIRDWOOD STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
                  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


                  A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                  THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                  imp




                  FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA.
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  400 PM SEPT 21 1995


                  THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIVER AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 11
                  AM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22.


                  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE SEWARD AREA. THE WEATHER FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT
                  RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.


                  THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE SEWARD
                  AREA. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE: PORT AVE, LOWELL POINT ROAD, NASH ROAD, EXIT GLACIER ROAD,
                  AND PRIMROSE ROAD. WE ALSO HAVE HEARD THAT THE BOX CANYON LEVEE WAS BREACHED EARLY THIS MORNING,
                  WITH THE RESULT THAT THE OLD EXIT GLACIER ROAD IS UNDER WATER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT THAT THE
                  WATER IN SEWARD WAS SLOWLY STARTING TO RECEED THIS MORNING.


                  A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                  THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                  imp



                  1700   RFC issues Flood Warning for Cordova area.



                  ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


                  FLOOD WARNING FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  5 PM THUR SEPT 21 1995



                                                        Appendix I-10














            THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA. THIS
            WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23.


            HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORDOVA AREA OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS CAUSED A MAJOR RISE IN WATER LEVELS ON
            STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA. LEVELS ON ALL STREAMS ARE HIGH. WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE COPPER
            RIVER HIGHWAY AT MILE 14, AND WATER IS THREATENING THE ROADWAY AT 9 MILE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
            TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE.


            A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


            THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 1 PM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


            ACL



            FLOOD STATEMENT FOR RICHARDSON HWY NEAR VALDEZ
            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            700 PM THUR SEPT 21 1995


            THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF VALDEZ WILL REMAIN IN
            EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM FRIDAY SEPT 22.


            HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.ABOVE VALDEZ HAS RAISED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS CONSIDERABLY. THE
            TIEKEL AND LOWE RIVERS HAVE RISEN OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND HAVE CAUSED THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO BE
            CLOSED AT MILE 47 AND 19 RESPECTIVELY. WATER IS OVER THE HIGHWAY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THAT
            STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY.


            RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VALDEZ AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
            TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
            THURSDAY NIGHT.


            A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


            THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED FRIDAY 12 PM SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


            ACL




            FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            8 PM ADT THU SEP 21 1995


            THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
            EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY SEPT 22.


            THE RADAR SHOWED RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUSTITNA BASIN BOTH
            WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS COMING FROM THE EAST, THE PRECIPITATION WAS ENHANCED
            ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, ONE REPORT INDICATES ABOUT 4 IN. FELL THIS MORNING AT FINGER LAKES.


            RIVERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS RAIN, WITH LAKE CREEK RISING BY FIVE FEET. REPORTS THURSDAY
            EVENING INDICATE THAT LAKE CREEK IS THREATENING SOME HOMES.


            A REPORT FROM SKWENTNA INDICATES THE A NUMBER OR ROADS AROUND TOWN ARE UNDERWATER. SEVERAL HOMES
            ARE ALSO IN DANGER OF FLOODING THURSDAY EVENING. WATER IS NOT UP TO THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME BUT
            IS STEADILY RISING. A LARGE NUMBER OF LOGS ARE RAFTING DOWN THE RIVER, ADDING TO THE FLOODING
            PROBLEM.


            RADAR IS INDICATING CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
            SUSITNA BASIN. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
            TAPPERING OFF ON FRIDAY.


            A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


            THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 930 AM FRIDAY SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


            ACL



            2127    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "STG BACLIN ZONE ERN GLFAX ASSOCD WITH UPR
                    JET PRSTNT AND REFLECTED WELL BY PROGS RH/PCP PATTERN. PROGS GENLY SIMILAR IN SYNOPTIC



                                                      Appendix I-11














                           SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURES ARE DF AND PRSTNT MOISTURE/PCPN ERN GLPAK AND DPNG BINARY
                           SYSTEM..ONE NR DUT WITH CONECTION TO LOW ALG 43N.


                           WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
                           PUBLIC ... FLD WRNG YENTNA,SKWENTA RVRS,rENAX RVR, CDV STREAMS.
                           PLD WRNG RICHARDSON HIWAY.
                           FLD WRNG CITY OF GIRDWOOD.
                           FLD WATCH KNIX RVR."


                   Friday, September 22


                   0314    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "ALL SATL PIX SEW HVY PCPN ASSOCD W/FNT &
                           JTSTRM CDV EWD BUT ALL NRN GLFASK STILL UNDER SLY FLOW ALF FOR CONTD RAIN. 2ND TROF XTNDG
                           SW OF ADQ WILL CONT TO MOV NWD BEST RANDLD BY ETA/NGM. WARM MX TEMPS CONT DUE TO LACK OF
                           COLD ADVCTN XCP INTO DVLPG LOW. AS DEEP LOW DVLPS IN SRN GLFASK FLOW ALF BCMS MORE SE OVR
                           CNTRL & ERN XNS FOR SOME BRKS THEN BACK IN LOTS MSTR BY OOZ SUN. LONGR TERM: BERING LOW
                           BCMS DOMINANT CIRCULATN' BY OOZ MON W/SWLY FLOW ALF OVR ENTR PCST AREA TUE WECH LUXS WET
                           BUT DOESNT LUX LIKE DOWNPOUR ATTM.


                           WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
                           Public ... FLD WRNG YENTA,SKWENTA,KENAI,CDV AREA,RICHARDSON HWY, GIRDWOOD, VWS, 5WD. FLOOD
                           WATCH KNIK.11



                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   900 AM SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
                   23.


                   OVER NIGHT THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING WAS STILL RISING, BUT AT ABOUT HALF THE RATE OF THE
                   PREVIOUS 12 HOUR PERIOD. AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING WAS AT 15.6 FT,
                   KENAI KEYS 13.8 FT, AND AT SOLDOTNA 12.8 FT. WATER LEVELS AT THE KEYS AND SOLDOTNA WILL CONTINUE
                   TO RISE TODAY, THEY MAY CREST SOMETIME LATER ON FRIDAY.


                   THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PEN, WITH LIGHT
                   RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NATIONAL GUARD FLEW UP TO SNOW LAKE GLACIER DAM YESTERDAY
                   AFTERNOON, THE LAKE HAD NOT RELEASED AT THAT TIME.


                   FLOODING IS OCCURING AT KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA AND AT VARIOUS OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER.
                   AS WATER FLOWS OVER BANKS GAGE READINGS WILL BE ONLY ROUGH ESTIMATES OF WATER LEVELS AS MUCH OF
                   THE ADDED FLOW SPREADS OUT HORIZONTALLY.


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SEPTEMBER 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   imp



                   0943    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "CURRENT GOES STLT PIXS SHOWS THERE IS STILL
                           A STRG BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCD WITH 300 MB SLY JET OVR ERN GLF AK AND ERN AK. WTR VPR CHNL
                           SHOW GOOD MOISTURE PLUME FM MID LATITUDE CONTG TO XOV INTO ERN AK. ALL MDLS DRPT MN AXIS
                           OF JET EWD INTO SE AK AND WRN CANADA BY AND SHORTEN SRN FETCH BY SAT NGT. MN SOURCE OF
                           MOISTURE INTO SRN AK WILL GRADLY DMSH AND SEPT E THRU 48 ERS."


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   1000 AM FRI SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
                   EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY 23.


                   FLOODING IS OCCURING ALONG THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK. WATER LEVELS
                   HAVE BEEN RISING ALL NIGHT LONG AT THE CONFLUENCE OF LAKE CREEK INTO THE YENTNA RIVER, DUE TO
                   RAIN WHICH HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE FOOT HILLS OF THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS.


                   RADAR THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER SKWENTNA BASIN, THE
                   WEATHER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS FOR THE RAIN TO DECREASE TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. WATER LEVELS
                   MIGHT NOT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.


                                                             Appendix 1-12














          A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


          THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 11 AM SATURDAY SEPT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


          imp



          1100    RFC issues Flood Warning for Knik River.


          FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER
          NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
          11 AM ADT FRI SEPT 22 1995


          ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


          THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPGRADED THE FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER.
          THIS WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SAT SEPT 23.


          RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED AREA STREAMS
          TO BEGIN FALLING. THIS FALLING TREND ON STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
          THE KNIK RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. PRESENTLY THE
          OLD GLENN HIGHWAY IS INUNDATED WHERE IT CROSSES THE KNIK RIVER. ALSO THE FISH HATCHERY ON THE OLD
          GLENN IS FLOODED. THIS HIGH WATER ON THE KNIK RIVER IS CAUSING BANK EROSION AND IS CARRYING MUCH
          DEBRIS DOWNSTREAM. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


          A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


          THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 3 PM FRIDAY SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


          ADA



          1100    RFC issues Flood Watch for Tonsina area.


          FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TONSINA VIDINITY STREAMS
          NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
          1100 AM FRI SEPT 22 1995


          ... IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


          THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA
          SURROUNDING THE TOWN OF TONSINA. THIS WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
          23.


          HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN THE TONSINA AREA. BERNARD CREEK HAS BEGUN TO FLOOD ONE HOUSE
          AND IS THREATING ANOTHER. RAIN IS SPILLING OVER FROM A NORTH GULF COAST STORM WHICH HAS DUMPED
          HEAVY RAIN FROM CORDOVA TO YAKUTAT. RAIN FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE
          TO HEAVY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS MEANS THAT RAIN IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE TONSINA
          AREA TODAY.


          A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


          THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


          imp



          1100    RFC cancels Flood Warning for Girdwood.


          FLOOD STATEMENT FOR GIRDWOOD NEAR ANCHORAGE
          NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
          1100 AM ADT FRI SEPT 22 1995


          A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GIRDWOOD HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


          THERE WAS NO RAIN IN GIRDWOOD THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE GIRDWOOD
          AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS IN THE GIRDWOOD AREA WERE
          FALLING, AND WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY.


          THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.




                                                 Appendix 1-13














                   ACL



                   1130    RFC cancels Flood Warning for Seward.


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA.


                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   1130 AM FRI SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RESURRECTION RIVER AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


                   LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE SEWARD AREA, HOWEVER THE RESURRECTION RIVER IS
                   DOWN TO 12.9 FT AND MUCH OF THE WATER IN AND ROUND SEWARD HAS RECEEDED. CREWS ARE NOW IN THE
                   PROCESS OF REPAIRING WASHED OUT ROADS AND OTHER STORM RELATED DAMAGE.


                   THE WEATHER FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER
                   THE RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW THOSE EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED


                   imp



                   1200    RFC cancels Flood Warning for Valdez area.


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR RICHARDSON HWY NEAR VALDEZ
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   1200 PM FRI SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF VALDEZ HAS BEEN
                   CANCELLED.


                   VALDEZ HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN IN NEARLY 12 HOURS, AND WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS IN THE AREA HAVE
                   BEGUN TO FALL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE VALDEZ AREA AND ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
                   INTO SATURDAY, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BRING STREAM LEVELS BACK
                   TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS. ONE LANE OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY HAS BEEN REOPENED TO TRAFFIC AT MILE 47
                   AND 60.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.



                   ACL



                   1300    RFC cancels Flood warning for Cordova area.


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   100 PM FRI SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR STREAMS IN THE CORDOVA AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


                   RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHT AND SHOWERY IN THE CORDOVA AREA FRIDAY MORNING, AND STREAM LEVELS ARE
                   BEGINING TO FALL. THE COPPER RIVER HIGHWAY AT MILE 14 WAS STILL CLOSED AT NOON ON FRIDAY, BUT
                   THE WATER LEVEL WAS DROPPING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
                   STREAM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.


                   ACL



                   1503    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "BAROCLINIC ZONE STILL OVR ERN GLF AX AND ERN
                           AX UNDER 300 MB JET. STLT PIX SHOW WV MOVG ALG FNT INTO ERN GLF. 300 MB JET WILL CONT TO
                           DRFT E INTO WRN CANADA SUN AFTN."


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KNIK RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   3:45 PM ADT FRI SEPT 22 1995




                                                            Appendix 1-14














           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER AND STREAMS DRAINING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
           REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SAT SEPT 23.


           RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED AREA STREAMS
           TO BEGIN FALLING. THIS FALLING TREND ON STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE KNIK
           RIVER HAD CRESTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
           FRIDAY MORNING THE OLD GLENN HIGHWAY WAS INUNDATED WHERE IT CROSSES THE KNIK RIVER, THE FISH
           HATCHERY ON THE OLD GLENN WAS ALSO FLOODED. A PORTION OF THE KNIK RIVER ROAD WAS STILL
           UNDERWATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WATER WAS ALSO STILL SURROUNDING SOME HOUSES NEAR THE FISH
           HATCHERY. THE HIGH WATER ON THE KNIK RIVER AND ASSOCIATED STREAMS IS CAUSING BANK EROSION AND
           THERE IS A LOT OF DEBRIS IN THE RIVER. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


           THE EAGLE RIVER CRESTED AT THE GLENN HIGHWAY BRIDGE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
           AND THE FLOW IS VERY TURBULENT. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF BANK EROSION ALONG EAGLE RIVER, AND A
           GAS LINE IS THREATENED AT THE EAGLE RIVER LOOP BRIDGE. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT A COUPLE OF
           BRIDGES ON THE LOWER EAGLE RIVER ON FORT RICHARDSON ARE UNDERWATER, THEREFORE BOATING IS NOT
           BEING PERMITTED ON THE LOWER RIVER FRIDAY, AND BOATING IS NOT ADVISED ON THE UPPER RIVER.
           SEVERAL FOOTBRIDGES ON HIKING TRAILS IN THE AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN WASHED OUT.


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM SAT SEPT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           ACL




           HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           0345 PM FRI SEPT 22 1995



            -FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
            -FLOODING ALONG UPPER YENTNA RIVER, AND THE SKWENTNA RIVER
            -FLOODING ALONG KINK RIVER AT OLD GLENN HIGHWAY
            -MINOR FLOODING IN STREAMS IN VICINITY OF TONSINA


           HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF SUSITNA BASIN,
           NEAR PTARMAGIN PASS. LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE KENAI PEN.
           AND OVER THE WESTERN CHUGACH. IT DOES APPEAR FROM SATELITE PHOTOS. AND MODEL QPF'S THAT THE
           HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS AROUND YAKUTAT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY.    RAIN FOR THE
           KENAI PEN. SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TODAY, TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE WESTERN
           SUSTINA BASIN, THE MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STILL FAVOUR OROGRPAHIC RAINFALL, BUT AS 500 MB LOW
           TRACKS EASTWARD, MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.


           SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST,
           INCLUDING THE LOWER COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THROUGHOUT THE PRESENT STORM, MUCH OF THE CURRENT DATA
           SUGGEST THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT. LOW LYING RAIN GAGES
           HAVE OFTEN NOT BEEN GOOD INDICATORS OF RAINFALL TOTALS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING LEVELS:
           ANC 6500 FT, ADQ 6500 AND 11000 FT OVER YAK. EXPECT FL TO DROP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ABOUT A
           THOUSAND FEET ON SATURDAY. (22/2000)


           ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
           A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN, INCLUDING THE SKWENTNA AND
           YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. RAIN WAS ENHANCED BY STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE ALASKA
           RANGE CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY FALL SATURDAY AS THE RAIN
           SUBSIDES. (22/2200)


           WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
           THE KNIK RIVER IS STILL HIGH. IT MAY CREST SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING. EAGLE RIVER AT THE GLENN
           HIGHWAY BRIDGE IS STILL VERY HIGH, IT HOWEVER IS STARTING TO RECEED SLOWLY. BOTH SHIP CREEK AND
           MIDDEL FORK OF CAMPBELL CREEK HAVE LOWERING WATER LEVELS. (22/2200)


           NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
           HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
           NO PROBLEMS TO REPORT AT THIS TIME. A FLOOD WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KENAI RIVER.
           (22/2200)


           COPPER RIVER BASIN...


           THE COOPER RIVER AT THE MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE HAS TRIPLED ITS FLOW OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. A
           FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA AROUND THE COMMUNITY OF TONSINA. (22/2200)


                                                  Appendix 1-15














                   JMP/ADA




                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   0430 PM SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
                   23.


                   AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON COOPER LANDING GAGE READ 15.86 FT, UP ABOUT 4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 6
                   HOURS. BOTH TRAIL AND SNOW RIVERS HAVE STEADY WATER LEVELS. STILL EXPECTING KENAI LAKE TO CREST
                   OUT SOMETIME TONIGHT. AS OF 4 PM KENAI KEYS MEASURED 14.11 FT, WHILE AT 1 PM AT SOLDOTNA THE
                   GAGE READ 12.98 FT. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.


                   THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PEN, WITH LIGHT
                   RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NATIONAL GUARD FLEW UP TO SNOW LAKE GLACIER DAM YESTERDAY
                   AFTERNOON, THE LAKE HAD NOT RELEASED AT THAT TIME.


                   FLOODING IS OCCURING AT KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA AND AT VARIOUS OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER.
                   AS WATER FLOWS OVER BANKS GAGE READINGS WILL BE ONLY ROUGH ESTIMATES OF WATER LEVELS AS MUCH OF
                   THE ADDED FLOW SPREADS OUT HORIZONTALLY.


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 8 PM FRI SEPT 22 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   imp



                   1700    Hydrologist-in-Charge Jerry Nibler and Warning Coordination meteorologist Dave Goldstein
                           brief ADES.


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   0830 PM SEPT 22 1995


                   THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
                   23.


                   AS OF 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON COOPER LANDING GAGE READ 15.96 FT, UP ABOUT 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 6
                   HOURS. AT THE KENAI KEYS, WATER LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AT A RATE OF ALMOST 0.5 INCH PER
                   HOUR. INFLOW INTO KENAI LAKE HAS BEGAN TO FALL AND WATER LEVELS AT COOPERS LANDING ARE EXPECTED
                   TO CREST SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. AS OF 7 PM WATER LEVELS AT THE KENAI KEYS MEASURED 14.32 FT, AND
                   AT 8 PM AT SOLDOTNA THE RIVER GAGE READ 13.40 FT. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE
                   TONIGHT AT THE KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA WITH CRESTING WATER LEVELS EXPECTED AT THE KENAI KEYS BY
                   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


                   THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PEN, WITH LIGHT
                   RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NATIONAL GUARD FLEW UP TO SNOW LAKE GLACIER DAM YESTERDAY
                   AFTERNOON, THE LAKE HAD NOT RELEASED AT THAT TIME.


                   FLOODING IS OCCURING AT KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA AND AT VARIOUS OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER.
                   AS WATER FLOWS OVER BANKS GAGE READINGS WILL BE ONLY ROUGH ESTIMATES OF WATER LEVELS AS MUCH OF
                   THE ADDED FLOW SPREADS OUT HORIZONTALLY.


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM FRI SAT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   imp



                   Saturday, September 23


                           Day Shift Lead forecaster Neil Murakami briefs ADES and EOCs in Kenai and Seward on
                           weather conditions.


                   0200    Forecaster Sam Albanese receives call from a resident on the Kenai River wanting
                           information about the rising water. Last statement issued by RFC was at 9 p.m. Friday



                                                            Appendix 1-16













                   calling for continued rising water through mid-day. Caller says he has about 2 inches to
                   go before he is in the water. Caller suggests including the rate of rise of river in
                   flood products.

           0250    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts: "FLOW ALOFT AND AT SFC WILL BECOME EASTERLY
                   AND ANTICYCLONIC FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST AND GIVE THEM A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE
                   RAIN..BUT EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERY WX FOR S CNTRL AX.



           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           0930 AM SAT SEPT 23 1995


           THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.


           RAIN WAS VERY LIGHT LAST NIGHT OVER THE UPPER KENAI RIVER BASIN, BOTH TRAIL AND SNOW RIVERS ARE
           SLOWLY DROPPING. AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING WAS 16.08 FT. IT APPEARS
           THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED CREST OF KENAI LAKE IS IN PROGRESS. AS OF 9 AM KENAI KEYS READ 15.03
           FT, A RISE OF ABOUT 0.5 IN PER HOUR. NO READING FROM SOLDOTNA THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
           LEVELING OFF OF KENAI LAKE KENAI KEYS AND POINTS DOWNSTREAM SHOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF RISE IN
           WATER LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SOMEWHERE IN THE 3 TO 6 IN RANGE. THIS IS A ROUGH ESTIMATE
           SINCE THE ACTUAL AMOUNT DEPENDS ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPY, ETC.


           THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE KENAI BASIN TODAY AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
           SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THIS RAIN TO IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION
           VERY MUCH.


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           imp



           1000    RFC cancels Flood Warning for the Knik River.

                   HIC Jerry Nibler flies to Kenai to provide on-site support for the EOC through the
                   weekend.


           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KNIK RIVER
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           10 AM ADT SAT SEPT 23 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KNIK RIVER AND STREAMS DRAINING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
           HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


           RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
           FALLING. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
           EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. BANK EROSION AND FLOATING DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
           DAYS AS WELL SO PERSONS NEAR THESE WATER COURSES SNOULD REMAIN ALERT, BUT NO FURTHER RISES OR
           FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.


           ADA



           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           1100 AM SAT SEPT 23 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
           EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.


           FLOODING IS OCCURING ALONG THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK. A REPORT OUT OF
           SKWENTNA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE RIVER THERE DROPED ABOUT ONE FOOT OVER NIGHT, IN ADDITON
           THE AIRSTRIP WAS NEVER UNDERWATER, AS SOME OF THE TV STATIONS ERRONOUSLY REPORTED.
           ON LAKE CREEK, THE WATER ROSE ANOTHER 6 INCHES OVER NIGHT, CHELATNA LAKE IS STILL HIGH AS OF 9 AM
           THIS MORNING.


           RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER SKWENTNA BASIN,



                                                     Appendix 1-17














                  HOWEVER AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS VERY LITTLE RAIN FALLING OVER THE ALAKSA
                  RANGE. AS A ROUGH ESTIMATE WATER LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CREEK SHOULD START
                  TO DROP SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY.


                  A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                  THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 AM SUN SEPT 24 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                  imp



                  HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK


                  300 PM SAT SEPT 23 1995



                   -FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
                   -FLOODING ALONG UPPER YENTNA RIVER, AND THE SKWENTNA RIVER


                  OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND THE STATE ARE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY'S VALUES.
                  VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS RECORDED OVER THE UPPER KENAI RIVER BASIN, AS LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER VALDEZ AND
                  CORDOVA. BASED ON RADAR RETURNS THERE WAS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG THE
                  MTNS. BORDERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SUSITNA BASIN. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RADAR IS NOT
                  INDICATING ANY RAIN OVER THIS VERY SATURATED BASIN.


                  IT APPEARS THAT THE COOPER LANDING GAGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF CRESTING (16.1 FT), WHICH MEANS THAT
                  THE KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA AREAS MAY ONLY SEE A 3 TO 6 IN RISE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE
                  REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.


                  RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY SHOULD BE ON A SCATTERED BASIS WITH TOTALS LESS THAN ONE
                  INCH. MODERATE RAIN OVER THE NO. GULF. COAST BY LATER TODAY. FREEZING LEVELS THIS MORNING OVER
                  ANC WAS 6000 FT, 4500 FT OVER ADQ, 9500 FT OVER YAK, AND 7500 FT OVER FAI. EXPECT FREEZING LEVEL
                  OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO BE IN THE 6000 FT RANGE ON SUNDAY. (23/1830)

                  ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
                  A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN, INCLUDING THE SKWENTNA AND
                  YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES. BOTH THE YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CREEK WERE RISING
                  THIS MORNING. RAIN IS DECREASING IN THE AREA, WHATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
                  WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ON THE SKWENTNA RIVER AT THE TOWN OF SKWENTNA. (23/2230)


                  WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
                  MOST OF THE SMALLER RIVERS WHICH DRAINING THESE RANGES HAVE DROPPING WATER LEVELS. THE SUSITNA
                  RIVER HAS A MODEST RISE WHICH SHOULD NOT LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. (23/2230)


                  NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
                  LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, TOTALS ARE IN THE LIGHT CATEGORY.
                  THE KENAI RIVER HAS CRESTED AT COOPER LANDING, AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT KENAI KEYS AND
                  SOLDOTNA ON SATURDAY EVENING. (23/2230)


                  COPPER RIVER BASIN...
                  THE RIVER LEVEL AT THE MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE IS STILL VERY HIGH BUT DROPED A SLIGHT AMOUNT FROM
                  YESTERDAYS VALUE. RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS CAUSING SOME PROBLEMS IN THE
                  TONSINA AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO BE MODERATE OVER MTNS. OF THIS BASIN, RIVERS HOLDING STEADY FOR
                  SUNDAY. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD RISE TOMORROW IF RAIN TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER THAN IS
                  EXPECTED. (23/2230)


                  JMP/ADA



                  FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  420 PM SAT SEPT 23 1995


                  THE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.


                  COOPER LANDING GAGE IS HOLDING STEADY AT 16.0 FT AS OF 1 PM. KENAIKEYS WAS 15.27 PT AT 4 PM,
                  SODOTNA WAS 14.0 FT AT 1 PM. AT THEPRESENT TIME MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE MIDDLE AND
                  LOWER PARTS OF THE KENAI BASIN. ESTIMATING CREST IN KENAI KEYS AND SOLDOTNA THIS EVENING.


                  THE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW.



                                                         Appendix 1-18














           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 8 PM SAT SEPT 23 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           imp



           1700    DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES in person.


           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           400 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26.


           WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.


           STATION         FLD STAGE    OBSERVATION    LST 24 HR     FORECAST(24HR)


           COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT       15.7 FT @21Z    -0.4 FT      15.0 FT @23Z
           KENAI KEYS       12.0 FT     15.5 FT @23Z    +0.2 FT      15.3 FT @23z
           SOLDOTNA         12.0 FT     14.6 FT @20Z    +0.5 FT      14.3 FT @23Z


           STATION             RAIN (LAST 24 HR)          RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)


           SEWARD                  0.5 IN                         0.4 IN
           KENAI                   0.4 IN                         0.3 IN
           HOMER                   0.3 IN                         0.3 IN


           FREEZING LEVELS      SUNDAY:6000-6500 FT       MONDAY:5500-6000 FT


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           imp




           Sunday, September 24



           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           0900 SUN SEPT 24 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24.


           THE WATER LEVEL AT COOPER LANDING DROPED SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES LAST NIGHT, AND NOW MEASURES
           15.75 FT. KENAI KEYS ROSE JUST LESS THAN A INCH OVERNIGHT AND NOW MEASURES 15.44 FT. SOLDOTNA IS
           NOW AT 14.50 FT, A RISE OF ABOUT 4 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY EVENINGS OBSERVATION. AN ADDITONAL
           RISE OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AT SOLDOTNA IS POSSIBLE. KENAI KEYS APPEARS TO BE ABOUT AT ITS CREST.


           LIGHT RAIN FELL OVER NIGHT AND IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 24 HOUR
           RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING A 4 AM THIS MORNING ARE:
                                         KENAI    0.31 IN
                                         HOMER    0.26 IN
                                         SEWARD   0.43 IN


           NOT EXPECTING THIS RAIN TO ADD VERY    MUCH WATER INTO THE KENAI BASIN.


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING    IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4    PM SUN SEPTEMBER 24 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           imp




           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           1000 AM SUN SEPT 24 1995


                                                     Appendix 1-19













                  THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES, REMAINS IN
                  EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25.


                  WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE DECREASING. AT THE
                  VILLAGE OF SKWENTNA, THE RIVER IS NOW BACK TO BANKFULL. ON LAKE CREEK, WHERE IT FLOWS INTO THE
                  YENTNA, WATER LEVELS DROPED ABOUT 12 INCHES OVER NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FELL OVER THE BASIN VERNIGHT,
                  ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY RAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE IS OVER FOR NOW. WATER LEVELS WILL
                  CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.


                  A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                  THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 AM SUN SEPT 24 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                  imp



                  1300   RFC cancels Flood Watch for Tonsina area.


                  FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE TONSINA AREA
                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  0100 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995


                  ...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...


                  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BERNARD CREEK AND OTHER STREAMS IN THE VINCINITY OF TONSINA, HAS BEEN
                  CANCELLED.


                  BERNARD CREEK HAS CONTINUED TO DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND POSES A MINOR THREAT TO NEARBY
                  PROPERTY OWNERS AT THIS TIME. RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LOWER COPPER RIVER BASIN
                  LAST NIGHT. THE FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY.


                  THE FLOODING OF BERNARD CREEK ERODED THE ACCESS ROAD INTO THE SUBDIVSION, AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
                  IT ALSO ERODED AWAY A 70 FT STRETCH OF THE BANK AS WELL AS TRANSPORT A NUMBER OR LARGE TREES.


                  THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.


                  imp



                  1700   DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES in person.


                  HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA


                  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                  0300 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995


                  -FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
                  -FLOODING ALONG UPPER YENTNA RIVER, AND THE SKWENTNA RIVER


                  RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE LIGHT. ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES FELL OVER THE
                  KENAI PENINSULA. THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS CALLING FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.
                  STILL RAINING IN SUSITNA BASIN, BUT THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO OVER THE
                  CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. FREEZING LEVEL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AROUND 6500 FT, 7500 FT AT
                  FAIRBANKS, 10000 FT OVER YAKUTAT AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST. (24/1900)


                  ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS ...
                  WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
                  THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. RAIN IS LIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL SUSITNA BASIN, ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
                  ADDITONAL RISES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (24/2200)


                  WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
                  THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING DROPPING WATER LEVELS TODAY AND TOMORROW. (24/2200)


                  NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
                  LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, TOTALS ARE IN THE LIGHT CATEGORY.
                  THE KENAI RIVER HAS CRESTED AT COOPER LANDING, AND IS IN THE MIDST OF A BORAD CREST AT KEANI KEYS
                  AND SOLDOTNA. (24/2200)



                  COPPER RIVER BASIN...
                  THE COOPER RIVER IS DROPPING AS WELL AS ITS TRIBUATARIES. RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN THE
                  LOWER BASIN HAS BEEN LIGHT. (24/2200)


                                                        Appendix 1-20














           JMP/ADA



           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           400 PM SUN SEPT 24 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26.


           WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVEFLOOD STAGE.
           STATION        FLD STAGE    OBSERVATION   LST 24 HR     FORECAST(24HR)


           COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT      15.7 FT @21Z    -0.4 FT     15.0 FT @23Z
           KENAI KEYS      12.0 FT     15.5 FT @23Z    +0.2 FT     15.3 FT @23Z
           SOLDOTNA        12.0 FT     14.6 FT 920Z    +0.5 FT     14.3 FT @23Z


           STATION            RAIN (LAST 24 HR)          RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)


           SEWARD                 0.5 IN                        0.4 IN


           KENAI                  0.4 IN                        0.3 IN
           HOMER                  0.3 IN                        0.3 IN


           FREEZING LEVELS     SUNDAY:6000-6500 FT       MONDAY:5500-6000 FT


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           imp



           Monday, September 25


           0815   DOH Larry Rundquist briefs Alaska military Affairs Commissioner at ADES.

           1000   RFC cancels Flood Warning for Western susitna Basin.


           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA BASIN
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           1000 AM MON SEPT 25 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS, ALONG WITH THEIR TRIBUTARIES HAS BEEN
           CANCELLED.


           WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK CONTINUE TO FALL. AT THE
           VILLAGE OF SKWENTNA AND ALONG THE YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CREEK, WATER LEVELS ARE NOW WITHIN THEIR
           BANKS AT MOST LOCATIONS. NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF LAKE CREEK AND THE YENTNA WATER LEVELS HAVE
           FALLEN 48 INCHES FROM THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL ON SATURDAY.


           WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO FURTHER THREAT OF
           FLOODING EXISTS DUE TO THIS EVENT.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED.



           DPS




           HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK


           0300 PM MON SEPT 25 1995


           -FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER



           RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE LIGHT. RAIFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.13 IN ANCHORAGE
           TO ALMOST 0.5 INCHES IN SEWARD. THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS CALLING FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
           SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED FROM THIS PRECIPITAION. IN THE



                                                    Appendix 1-21














                   CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IS FORECAST OVER THE CHENA BASIN. RAIN
                   SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO INTO NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. QPF FROM BETHEL ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN. ARE
                   BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FREEZING LEVEL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ARE AROUND
                   6000 FT AND APPROX. 7000 FT IN FAIRBANKS.


                   COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP OVER THE NEXT
                   SEVERAL DAYS. (25/1900)


                   ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
                   WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
                   THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE WITHIN THEIR BANKS AT MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
                   IS LIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL SUSITNA BASIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
                   NO ADDITONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (25/2200)


                   WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
                   THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SLOWLY FALLING LEVELS MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
                   (25/2200)


                   NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
                   RIVERS AND STREAMS ON KODIAK ISLAND ARE FALLING AFTER THE CREST CAUSED BY EARLIER RAIN. LIGHT
                   RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT TOTALS HAVE BEEN IN
                   THE LIGHT CATEGORY. THE RAIN HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED LEVELS ON THE KENAI RIVER, WHICH IS
                   PRESENTLY SEVERAL FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ALONG ITS ENTIRE REACH. LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
                   BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON MOST OF THE KENAI RIVER UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEK. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
                   THE SEWARD AREA ARE FALLING. (25/2200)


                   COPPER RIVER BASIN...
                   THE COOPER RIVER IS DROPPING AS WELL AS ITS TRIBUATARIES. RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN THE
                   LOWER BASIN HAS BEEN LIGHT. WITH ONLY SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND FREEZING LEVELS FALLING
                   SOME, MOST RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE A FALLING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. (25/2200)


                   JMP/ADA



                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   400 PM MON SEPT 25 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26.


                   WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.


                   STATION         FLD STAGE    OBSERVATION    LST 24 HR     FORECAST(24HR)


                   COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT       15.4 FT @1PM    -0.3 FT      14.9 FT @4PM
                   KENAI KEYS       12.0 FT     15.4 FT @3PM    -0.1 FT      15.1 FT @4PM
                   SOLDOTNA         12.0 FT     14.2 FT @lPM    -0.3 FT      13.8 FT @4PM


                   STATION             RAIN (LAST 24 HR)          RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
                                            @9AM                      STARTING @3PM


                   SEWARD                  0.4 IN                         0.2 IN
                   KENAI                   0.3 IN                         0.2 IN
                   HOMER                   0.2 IN                         0.2 IN


                   FREEZING LEVELS      MONDAY:5000-5500 FT       TUESDAY:5000 FT


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9 AM TUE SEPT 26 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   imp



                   Tuesday. September 26


                   0815    DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES in person.

                   0900    DOH Larry Rundquist briefs Alaska Lt. Governor Ulmer at ADES.




                                                             Appendix 1-22














           FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           900 AM SEPT 26 1995


           THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 30.


           WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.


           STATION        FLD STAGE    OBSERVATION   LST 24 HR     FORECAST(24HR)


           COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT      15.2 FT @7Am   -0.2 FT      14.8 FT @7AM
           KENAI KEYS      12.0 FT     15.3 FT @8AM   -0.1 FT      15.0 FT @8AM
           SOLDOTNA        12.0 FT     14.4 FT @8AM   +0.2 FT      14.1 FT @8AM


           THE SOLDOTNA GAGE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA  OF ROUGH WATER, CAUSING
           THE MEASUREMENTS TO FLUCTUATE.


           STATION           RAIN (LAST 24 HR)          RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
                                   @9AM                      STARTING @9AM


           SEWARD                 0.3 IN                        0.1 IN
           KENAI                  0.3 IN                        0.0 IN
           HOMER                  0.2 IN                        0.0 IN


           FREEZING LEVELS     TUESDAY:6500 FT      WENDESDAY:5500-6000 FT


           A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING  IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


           THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4  PM TUE SEPT 26 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


           JMP-




           HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA
           NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
           0300 PM TUE SEPT 26 1995


           -FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
           -FLOOD POTENTIAL MODERATE FOR REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK
           -FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW TO MODERATE FOR FAIRBANKS AREA AND PORCUPINE RIVER BASIN.
           -FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.


           THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
           NORTH GULF COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TUESDAY. RAIN IS ALSO OCCURING IN THE PORCUPINE RIVER
           BASIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE TANANA VALLEY ALSO EXPERIENCING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
           MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO ALOW IN THE BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL
           ALSO BRING RAIN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY. TOTALS ARE NOT
           EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHCENTRAL. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE
           STATE FROM THE WEST AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. (26/1900)


           ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
           WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
           THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE WITHIN THEIR BANKS AT MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
           WAS LIGHT OVER THE BASIN YESTERDAY, HENCE RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP TO NORMAL LEVELS.
           (26/2200)


           WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
           THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SLOWLY FALLING STAGES. (26/2200)


           NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...


           RIVERS ON KODIAK IS. AND ON THE KENAI PEN. CONTINUE TO DROP. THE


           LOWER KENAI RIVER SHOULD REMAIN AOBVE FLOOD STAGE FROM 4 TO 6 DAYS AT MOST LOCATIONS. (26/2200)


           COPPER RIVER BASIN...
           BOTH THE GAKONA AND THE GULKANA RIVERS HAD VERY SLIGHT RISES, WHILE THE TONSINA AND MILLION
           DOLLAR BRIDGE GAGES WERE DROPPING. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE LIGHT OVER THIS BASIN, SO NOT LOOKING
           FOR MUCH CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY'S OBSERVATIONS. (26/2200)


           JMP/ADA/SDL


                                                   Appendix 1-23













                   $ $


                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   400 PM TUE SEPT 26 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL RE14AIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 30.
                   WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.


                   STATION        FLD STAGE    OBSERVATION   LST 24 HR     FORECAST(24HR)


                   COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT      15.1 FT @lPM   -0.3 FT      14.7 FT @4PM
                   KENAI KEYS      12.0 FT     15.2 FT @1PM   -0.2 FT      14.9 FT @4PM
                   SOLDOTNA        12.0 FT     14.4 FT @8AM   +0.2 FT      13.9 FT @4PM


                   THE SOLDOTNA GAGE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA  OF ROUGH WATER, CAUSING THE MEASUREMENTS TO FLUCTUATE.


                   STATION           RAIN (LAST 24 HR)          RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
                                          @9AM                       STARTING @4PM


                   SEWARD                 0.3 IN                        0.0 IN
                   KENAI                  0.3 IN                        0.0 IN
                   HOMER                  0.2 IN                        0.0 IN


                   FREEZING LEVELS     TUESDAY:6500 FT      WENDESDAY:5500-6000 FT


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING  IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 9  AM WED SEPT 27 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   imp




                   Wednesday, September 27


                   0700   RFC hours of operation change from 7:00 a.m. - 11:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m.



                   FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
                   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
                   900 AM WED SEPT 27 1995


                   THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KENAI RIVER WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 30.


                   WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.


                   STATION        FLD STAGE    OBSERVATION   LST 24 HR     FORECAST(24HR)


                   COOPER LANDING 14.0 FT      14.6 FT @7AM   -0.6 FT      14.1 FT @9AM
                   KENAI KEYS      12.0 FT     14.9 FT @8AM   -0.6 FT      14.3 FT @9AM
                   SOLDOTNA        12.0 FT     13.9 FT @8AM   -0.5 FT      13.5 FT @9AM


                   THE SOLDOTNA GAGE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA  OF ROUGH WATER, CAUSING THE MEASUREMENTS TO FLUCTUATE.


                   STATION           RAIN (LAST 24 HR)          RAIN FORECAST (24 HR)
                                          @9AM                       STARTING @9AM


                   SEWARD                 0.01 IN                        0.0 IN
                   KENAI                  0.01 IN                        0.0 IN
                   HOMER                  0.04 IN                        0.05 IN


                   FREEZING LEVELS     WEDNESDAY:6000 FT      THURSDAY:4500-5000 FT


                   A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


                   THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 4 PM WED SEPT 27 OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


                   DPS



                   HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA


                                                           Appendix 1-24














            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
            0300 PM WED SEPT 27 1995


            -FLOOD OCCURING ALONG KENAI RIVER
            -FLOOD POTENTIAL MODERATE FOR REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK
            -FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW TO MODERATE FOR FAIRBANKS AREA AND PORCUPINE RIVER BASIN.
            -FLOOD POTENTIAL LOW FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.


            TUESDAY LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED IN NORTHERN ALASKA, THE FAIRBANKS AREA, ACROSS AK PEN AND KENAI
            PEN, AND IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LARGEST 24 HOUR TOTAL WAS .41 INCHES AT KODIAK. SCATTERED
            LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING TO
            SCATTERED SHOWERS/FLURRIES THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND
            THURSDAY. THE MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND A LOW
            FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK IS. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING
            INTO THE Y-K DELTA AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WEDNESDAY, MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5
            INCH. THE SYSTEM FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAIN INTO KODIAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
            AND UP THE KENAI PEN AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MODEL
            QPFS ALONG THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND THE GULF COAST ARE AROUND 0.5 INCH, WITH QPFS OF AROUND 0.2
            INCH FOR WESTERN KENAI PEN.


            WEDNESDAY MORNING FREEZING LEVELS IN SOUTHCENTRAL ARE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FT, AND ARE EXPECTED
            TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA GENERALLY
            RANGE BETWEEN 3800 AND 5000 FT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
            (27/1900)


            ALASKA RANGE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES FROM WINDY TO LAKE CLARK PASS...
            WATER LEVELS ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS AS WELL AS LAKE CREEK ARE ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER
            THE RECENT VERY HIGH LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY DID NOT AFFECT THE
            FALLING WATER LEVEL TREND. RIVER AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY. (27/2200)


            WEST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS..
            WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING IN THIS AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
            SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RATE OF THE FALLING TREND
            ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED. THE KENAI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
            DAYS. HOWEVER, THE LOWER RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
            (27/2200)


            NORTH GULF COAST, EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND KODIAK ISLAND...
            RIVERS ON KODIAK ISLAND AND IN THE SEWARD AREA CONTINUE TO FALL. LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE
            REGION OVER NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CAUSE MOST STREAMS TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY IN THE SEWARD
            AREA AND ON KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. (27/2200)


            COPPER RIVER BASIN...
            THE GULKANA AND GAKONA RIVER WERE RELATIVELY STEADY WHILE THE COPPER RIVER WAS FALLING AT MILLION
            DOLLAR BRIDGE. RELATIVELY STEADY STAGES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE UPPER COPPER
            RIVER BASIN WHILE FALLING STAGES SHOULD CONINUE ON THE COPPER RIVER AT MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE OVER
            THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (27/2200)


            ACL/DPS



            Friday, September 29


            1600    RFC cancels Upper Kenai River Flood Warning.

            2116    WSFO Anchorage Forecast Discussion excerpts:"HWVR DUE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THIS SYS
                    PRFR ETA QPF VALUES WHICH IN THE 24-36HR AND 36-48 HR PDS OVR THE WRN AND CNTRL N GLF CSTL
                    AREAS ARE ABT TWICE THE NGM VALUES..RSNBL AGRMNT OVR KODIAK ISL..THIS COULD SET STAGE FOR
                    ADNL FLOOD PRBLMS ON THE KENAI PEN ... LESSER AMTNS..GNLY BLO % INCH IN 24 HR PD..N OF CSTL
                    RANGE AS LOW STALLS N OF KODIAK AND FNT WKNS AS IT ROTATES NWD OVR CSTL RANGE. MAX DPNG OF
                    THIS SYS AT 30 HRS..06Z SUN..NR CDB AT 968MB WITH OCLN IN ARC THRU N PTH-N SKJ-55N 148W
                    AND TRLG FNT SSW. AT 48 HRS..LOW MVD TO LWR SHELIKOF STRAIT..974MB WITH OCLN IN ARC THRU N
                    ILI-S TKA-VCNTY VWS-S YAK-55N 137W AND TRLG CDFNT SSW. GALE TO STORM FORCE WNDS TO 150 NM
                    IN ADVN FNT NINW GALES PSBLY STORM GUSTS TO ABT 300 NM W OF LOW CNTR OVR SE BERING/ALUTNS
                    AND AK PEN. BACLN ZONE ACRS KENAI PEN-PWS AND EWD ALG N GLF CST QSNTRY WITH WWD MVG FNTL
                    WVS..PRDCG MDT RA OVR THE NRN PENISULA AND PSBLY IN THE GIRDWOOD AREA."


            2330    RFC issues River Statement for streams draining the southern Chugach Mountains and
                    northern Kenai Mountains.


            Sunday, October 1



                                                      Appendix 1-25













                         RFC returns to normal hours of operation: 7:00 a.m. - 5 p.m.

                  Monday, October 2


                  0900   DOH Larry Rundquist briefs ADES and the press at the ADES.

                  1600   Lower Kenai River Flood Warning canceled.































































                                                         Appendix 1-26









                                -AP endix ii
                                 PP


                      Precilpitation and Streamflow
                        Gauge Locations and Data





       Appendix II contains Tables 4,5, and 6. Table 4 lists the
       location of precipitation gauges used for the analyses in this
       report. These locations are shown in Figures 7 and 8 in Chapter
       III. Table 5 provides the daily precipitation amounts collected
       during the period September 17-30, 1995. Table 6 lists discharge
       and recurrence interval data provided by the U.S. Geological
       Survey.









































                                Appendix II-1




                         Table 4 Location of Precipitation Stations                                            -77 Longitude                 Eleva
                                                                                                      Latitude                                     tion @Gauqe
                         Site 1. D.    Location                                                   Deg          min      Dea           Min      (feet)   Tv--'
                         Anchorage and Chugach Mountains (Figure 16)
                         AAA           INDIAN PASS                                                61           4        149           29       2350     R1
                         ALYS          ALYESKA                                                    60           58       149           8        250      C
                         ANC           ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT                            61           10       150           1        114      R3
                         APU           ALASKA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY                                  61           11       149           48       220      C
                         AQY           GIRDWOOD                                                   60           58       149           7        nnsg_ Ri
                         CER           CHICHAGOF LOOP, EAGLE RIVER                                61           18       149           31         s      C
                         EKPR          EKLUTNA PROJECT                                            61           28       149           10       38       C
                         ER5           EAGLE RIVER 5 SE                                           61           18     -149            26       600      C__
                         ERP           EAGLE RIVER VISITORS CENTR.                                61      _114- 149                   16       rnsg_ R1
                         GLP           GLEN ALPS                                                  61 _6                 149           41       nnsg _ R 1
                         LRC           LITTLE RABBIT CK.                                          61           5        149           42       rnsg_ R1
                         MLSC          MIRROR LAKE SCOUT CAMP                                     61           26       149           25       405      C
                         PAFR          FORT RICHARDSON WTP                                        61           14       149           38-- 49-0         R31
                         RIBT          RABBIT CK.                                                 61           5        149    _44-            1480     R1
                         SEG           SO FK. EAGLE RV.                                           61           14       149           26       rnsg_ Ri
                         TUX           TUXEDNIPARK                                                61           9        149           42       rnsg     R1
                         KenalPeni     sula (Figure 16)
                         519           19 MILES NORTH OF SEWARD                                   60           20       149           21      -495      C
                         5WID          SEWARD, AT THE HOTEL                                       60           7        149           27       35       R61
                         ABD           TURNAGAIN PASS                                             60           47       149           11       1880     R1
                         ABIVI         SUMMIT CREEK                                               60           37       149           32       1400     R1
                         ABR           GRANDVIEW                                                  60           36       149           4        1100     R1
                         APT      -ANCHOR RIVER                                                   59           45       151           45       rnsg     R24
                         APT1          ANCHOR RV. NR ANCHOR PT.                                   59           46       151           50                R1
                         BRIVI         MIDDLE FK BRADLEY RIVER                                    59           48       150           45       2300     RW
                         BFIRE         BRADLEY RIESV. OUTLET                                      59           46       150           51       1050     IRW
                         BFIT          BRADLEY RIVER @ TIDEWATER                                  59           48       150           53       90       RW
                         CLK           COOPER LAKE                                                60           23       149           41       1200     C
                         COLK          COOPER LAKE PROJECT                                        60           23       149           40       445      C
                         ENA           KENAI FAA AIRPORT                                          60           34       151           15       86       R31
                         EXT           EXIT GLACIER VISITOR CENTER                                60           12       149           37       490      C
                         GLC           GLACIER CK. @ BRUNO RD.                                    60           11       149           24                Ri
                         H9E           HOMER 9 EAST                                               59           43       151           19       900      C
                         HCOV          HALIBUT COVE, SOUTH OF HOMER                               59           36       151           10       30       C
                         HOM           HOMER                                                      59           38       151           30       89       R3
                         K9N           KENAI 9 NORTH                                              60           40       151           19       130      C
                         KASI          KASILOF                                                    60           22       151           23       70       C
                         KMR           KENAI MOOSE PENS                                           60           44       150           28       300      R1
                         LWG      -TRAIL IRV. NR LAWING                                           60           24       149           22           _g__ R1
                         WAS           MOOSE PASS                                                 60           30       149           26       485      C
                         MYS           MYSTERY CK. @KENAI NWR                                     60           35       150           18           g_ Ri
                         PRK           NUKA RIVER @ PARK BOUNDARY                                 59           41       150           42       1300 IRW
                         SILV          SILVER LAKE NEAR MOOSE RIVER                               69           31       144           11       1200     C
                         SWID          SEWARDASOS                                                 60           8        149           25         9      R1
                         SXQ           SOLDOTNA                                                   60           29       151           2        107      R11
                         ITUT          ITUTKA BAY LAGOON                                      1   59     1     26    1 151 1 25 1              20       IC
                          C Climate station - monthly reports
                          R Real-time reports (n=interval in hrs; W=weekly; I=intermiftent reports)






                                                                             Appendix 11-2






                 Table 4 Location of Precipitation Stations
                                                                                                     Latitude               Longitude-         Elevation Gauge
                                                                                                       J Min              Deg             Min       (feet)   Tvnt-*
                 Site I.D.      Location                                                         Deg
                 Kodiak Island and Western Cook Inlet (Figure 15)
                 5131           BIG RIVER LAKES                                                   60-          49         152             18        40 - R241
                 ADQ            KODIAK- KODIAK -ISLAND------                                      57 -45                  152             30        15       R3
                 CHIN           SOUTH COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND                                      57           37         152             22        48       C
                 INT            INTRICATE BAY                                                     59           34         154             28        170      C
                 OUZ            OUZINKIE                                                          57           56                                         -C------
                 Z30            PORT ALSWORTH                                                     60           12         154             18        260      C
                 Matanuska and Knik River Basins (Figure 16)
                 5WO            LAZY MOUNTAIN                                                     61           38         149       -2              790      R241
                 AK42           SUTTON 2 EAST                                                     61           43         148             53        550      R241
                 ANDL           ANDERSON LAKE                                                     61           37         149             20        495      C
                 LSU            LITTLE SUSITNA RIVER                                              61           43         149             14        920      R24
                 LSUS           LITTLE SUSITNA LARC                                               61           43         149             14   920 --R1
                 MAES           MATANUSKA AGRI EXP STATION                                        61           34         149             16        150      C
                 MAG            GLACIER PARK- MATANUSKA GLACIER                                   61           47         147             48        ms       R1
                 PAES           -PAMER.IAS---------------                                                   -36           149             -6        225 - C
                 PAQ            PALMER MUNICIPAL AIRPORT                                          61           36         149             5         232      R61
                 SUT ---SUTTON LARC                                                               61           42-1.48-51-                          Mg- R 1
                 WAS            WASILLA CREEK AT PALMR-WAS HWY                                    61           35         149             17        msg
                                                                                                                                                             R24

                 WAS3           WASILLA 3 SOUTH                                                   61           32         149
                                                                                                                                          26        5
                 Susitna River Basin (Figure 15)
                 5HR            HAYES RIVER -                                                   -61            59     -152-5                        1009     R24-1
                 ACR            SU RIVER AND ALEXANDER CK CONFL                                   61           25         150             35        MSQ      R24
                 CANT           CANTWELL 2 EAST                                                   63           24         148             54        2150     C
                 CLAK           CHEL.ATNA LAKE---                                                 62 --26                 151             25        msg_ R24
                 LAK            YENTNA RIVER AND LAKE CK CONFL                                    61- -- 54-              150             54        msg- R24
                 PTI ---- PUNTILLA LAKE                                                           62           6          152             45        1832     R241
                 SKW            SKWENTNA                                                          61           58         151             11        150      R241
                 SUN            SUNSHINE                                                          62           11         150             -8        280      R24
                 TKA            TALKEETNA                                                         62           19         150             6         345      R31
                 TML            TWELVE MILE LAKE                                                  61           46         149             43     M-9         Ri
                 WIL            WILLOW-CREEK AT-WILLOW                                            61      46              150             4         200      R24
                 WILW           WILLOW WEST                                                       61           45         150             3         205      C
                 Copper RI r Basin (Figure 15)
                 5G N           TAH N ETA PASS                                                    61                      147             33        2621     R24
                 5PX            PAXSON                                                            63           2          145             -30       2701     R241
                 GAK-           GAKONA                                                            62           18         145             18        ms - R24
                 GKIN           GULKANA FAA                                                       62           9          145             27        1570     R241
                 KCAM           --GLENNALLEN KCAM                                                 62-7                    145-            32-       1456     C-----
                 LKSU           LAKE SUSITNA                                                      62           27     146                 41 --     2100     C
                 MXY            MCCARTHY 3 SOUTHWEST                                              61           25         143             0         1250     R24
                 TON            TONSINA                                                           61           39         145             11        1500     R241
                 Prince Wilialm Sound and Gulf of Alaska Coastline (Figure 15)
                 5WT     ---    WHITT   -IER                                                   60         46              148             41        60       R241
                 CDN----COR-POVA-NORTH                                            ------60                     33         145             46 - -25 C
                 CDV--- CORDOVA                                                                   60           30         145             30        41       R31
                 MAIN---- -MAINBAY                                                                             30         148    -- 5               40       C
                 PTSW           PORT SAN JUAN                                    -----60                                  148             4         0        C
                                                                                                                                                             @
                                                                                                                                                             I'l
                                                                                                                                                             P
                                                                                                                                                             C






























                 VWS-VALD-EZ                                                                                   8          146             -21       23       R3
                 IYAK           IYAKUTAT                                                     1 59         1    31     1   139     1       40  1     28       IR3
                   C Climate station - monthly reports
                   R Real-time reports (n=interval in hrs; W=weekly; I=Intermiftent reports)


                                                                          Appendix 11-3












                    Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations


                                   I
                    Site                                 09/171     09/18       09/19       09/20      09/21      09/22       09/23      09/24       09/25       09/26      09/27.      09/28      09/29       09/30
                    Anchoraae       nd Chuaach Mountal         s
                    AAA                    mid           0.00        0.00        0.10       3.20        0.60       0.00       0.10        0.00       0.10        0.00        0.00       0.10        0.50       0.1
                    ALYS                   8             0.00        0.05        0.92       4.20        3.65       0.62       0.37        0.13       0.52        0.17        0.00       0.00,       0.08       0.87
                    ANC                    mid           0.00        0.20        0.02       0.03        0.31       0.00       0.09        0.07       0.00        0.00        0.00       0.07        0.50       0.07
                    APLI                   9             0.00        0.02        0.09       0.17        0.69       0.01       0.00        0.04       0.03        0.01        0.01-      0.00        0.06       0.54
                    AQY                    4               0.0         0.0        0.5         2.3        3.0        0.4         0.2        0.2         0.2         0.2        0.0         0.0 msg         msg
                    CER                    17            0.02        0.00        0.03       1.21        0.36       0.03       0.00        0.04       0.00        0.00        0.00       0.02        0.06       0.16
                    EKPR                   16         mso            0.02        0.00       1.55        1.281 msa        msg        msQ              0.14        0.00 msg          msg        msg         msa
                    ER5                    18            0.00        0.00        0.05       1.60        0.531      0.00       0.00        0.00       0.00        0.00        0.00       0.00        0.00,      0.28
                    ERP                    4               0.0         0.0        0.0         0.4        2.2        0.6         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0         0.2
                    GLP                    4               0.1         0.0        0.4         2.4        0.7        0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0        0.5         0.2
                    LRC                    4               0.0         0.1        0.0         0.2        1.9        0.5         0.01       0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0         0.8
                    MLSC                   9             0.00        0.00        0.07       0.24        0.87       0.02       0.00        0.01       0.00        0.00        0.00       0.00        0.02       0.13
                    PAFR                   8             0.00        0.00        0.00       0.30        1.13       0.02       0.00        0.021      0.05        0.00        0.00       0.00        0.021      0.29
                    RBT                    4             0.00        0.00        0.01       0.15        1.72       0.48       0.00        0.03       0.06        0.00        0.01       0.00        0.00       0.84
                    SEG                    4               0.0         0.0        0.0         0.1        1.6        0.4         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0 msg
                    ,Tux                   4-              0-0                    0.0-        0          1.2        0.21        OLo_____ 0-0           n.01        0.0        0,01        nn         An          n_A








                    Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations

                                  I Obs Time      I           I                                                                                                               I
                    Site          I (Loc Std)                           3     09/19      09/20      09/21      09/22       09/23       09/24     09/25       09/26      09/27      09/28      09/29      09/30
                    Kenai Peninsula                                                                                                                                           --
                    519                   7             0.00       0.04        0.28      2.74        2.50       0.78       0.56        0.48       0.53       0.35       0.01-0.00              0.25       0.72
                    5WD                   2             0.00       0.65        0.89,     9.81        1.53       1.24,      0.43        0.39       061        0.00       0.00        1.20,      0.04       0.78
                                          4
                    ABD                                 0.30       0.00        0.50      2.10        2.89       1.00       0.31        0.04       0.         0.90       0.10        0.19       0.00       0.59
                    ABM                   mid           0.90       0.20        0.60      3.70        0.70       0.30       0.20        0.20       0.101      0.00       0.00        0.20       0.60
                    ABR                   mid           0.00       0.40        2.00      3.50        0.50                  0.20        0.10       0.501      0.00       0.00        0.00       0.00
                    APT                   8             0.05       0.10        0.06 >1               0.12       0.30       0.09        0.32       0.27       0.00       0.08        0.00       0.00
                    APT1                  4             0.02       0.07        0.051     1.08        0.42       0.221      0.19        0.29       0.21       0.13       0.031       0.10       0.251      0.00
                    BRM                   mid           0.00       0.18        2.13 mso        msg              0.00       0.00        0.00       0.00       .0.00      0.001       1.01       0.00       0.27
                    BRRE                  mid           0.05       0.49        1.31      2.74        0.96       1.05       0.42        0.15       0.65       0.04       0.011       0.68       0.00       0.19
                    BRT                   mid           0.00       0.02        0.25      1.35        2.84       0.66       0.21        0.11       0.38       0.03       0.001       0.34       0.01       0.06
                    CLIK                  mid           0.00       0.10        0.60      4.50        1.60       0.80-      0.30        0.20.      0.30       0.00       0.00-0.00              0.60       0.00
                    COLK                  15            0.00       0.04        0.32.     3.20        2.25       1.05       0.30 msg               0.80       0.00       0.05        0.00       0.48       0.28
                    ENA                   4             0.00       0.02        0.051     0.07        0.59       0.04       0.00        0.47       0.25       0.27       0.01        0.00       0.54       0.02
                    EXT                   17            0.00       0.70        0.251     2.50        4.49       2.60       0.83        0.46       0.85       0.02       0.00        0.75       0.89       0.15
                    GLC                   4             0.07       0.81        2.14      4.86        2.01       1.12       0.32        0.26       0.36       0.04       0.00        0.00       0.10       0.17
                    H91E                  18            0.00       0.02        0.06      1.56        0.03       0.18       0.07        0.29       0.241      0.10       0.171       0.16       0.11       0.01
                    HCOV                  9         msg       msg              0.62      2.75        0.81       0.88       0.08        0.35       0.18       0.16       0.00        0.12       0.28       0.00
                    HOM                   mid           0.001      0.30        0.53      0.88        0.16       0.22       0.25        0.17       0.22       0.09       0.00        0.29       0.00       0.04
                    K9N                   7             0.021      0.01        0.12      0.43        0.15       0.01       0.03        0.00       0.42       0.23       0.14        0.00       0.05       0.48
                    KASI                  7             0.02       0.00        0.081     0.55        0.25       0.06       0.001       0.33       0.00       0.33       0.03        0.07       0.50       0.00
                    KMR                   mid           0.00       0.00        0.00      0.20        0.30       0.00-      0.30        0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00       0.20       0.30
                    LWG                   4             0.00       0.00        0.00      1.50        3.00       0.80       0.40        0.40       0.20       0.50       0.00        0.00       0.10       1.00
                    WAS                   17            0.00       0.08        0.50      3.50        1.56       1.00       0.69        0.64       0.51       0.04       0.63        0.00       0.72       0.47
                    MYS                   4             0.00       0.00        0.00      0.58        1.32       0.171      0.00        0.06       0.06       0.01       0.00        0.00       0.05       0.63
                    PRK                   mid           0.00       0.96        -3.80 -   6.82        2.72       4.16       0.55        0.20-1.05             0.09       0.01        1.66       0.00       0.84
                    SILV                  7             0.00       0.00        0.101     0.00        0.75       0.51       0.22        0.00       0.09       0.21       0.00        0.00       0.05       0.00
                    SWD                   mid       msg       msg         msg        msa       .>.84            1.58       0.34        0.26       0.58       0.01.      0.00        1.10       0.39       0.21
                    SXQ                   4             0.00       000         0.03  -   0.001       0.17       0.00       0.00        0.06       0.01       0.00@      0.001       0.001      0.06       0.00
                    ITUT                  15            oml        a.--        0.37      s.6ol       2.2ja      1 r..q     n. 1.9;     4.pn_ o.na            0-141      0,001       1,271      n nn ___Qad
                                                                                                                @
                                                                                                                1 '00
                                                                                                                0.3                                                                                       0.20
                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                0. 10                                                                                     0.70
                                                                                                                0. 30                                                                                     0.43




































                                                                                                          Appendix 11-5











                    Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations



                                     Obs Time
                    Site          I (Loc Std) 1         09/171       09/18      09/19       09/20      09/21       09/22       09/23       09/24      09/25       09/26       09/27       09/28       09/29       09/30
                    Kodiak Island and Western Cook I           let
                    5131                  21             0.08        0.45        0.39        1.98       0.85        1.00        0.35       0.15        0.45        0.00        0.00-      1.46         0.51        0.05
                                          mid        msg             0.21        2.30        0.83       1.01        0.14        0.02       0.11        0.26        0.42.       0.02       0.13         0.00        0.82
                    CHIN                  19             3.44        1.00        2.13        0.97       1.77        0.12.       0.06       0.11        0.19        0.44 msa               0.43         0.00        1.52
                    INT                   18             0.08        0.13        0.15        1.53       1.00        0.42        0.02       0.01        0.12        0.03        0.00       0.55         0.00        0.12
                    Ouz                   7              2.16        3.66        0.05        2.45       0.75        0.45        0.08       0.38        0.50        0.37        0.20-      0.06         0.05        0.00
                    Z30                   18             0.00        0.01        0.00        0.62       0.18        0.00        0.00       0.00        0.15        0.02        0.00       0.29         0.00        0.00
                    Matanuska and Knik Basins
                    5WO                   7              0.00        0.00        0.00        0.08       2.15        0.21        0.00       0.00        0.03        0.00        0.00       0.00         0.00        0.22
                    AK42                  13             0.00        0.00        0.00        0.38       1.32        0.04        0.00       0.00        0.04        0.00        0.00       0.00         0.00        0.11
                    ANDL                  7              0.00        0.00        0.07        0.16       0.48        0.02        0.01       0.04        0.06        0.05        0.02       0.00         0.00        0.1
                    LSU                   7              0.00        0.00        0.04        0.18       0.96        0.15        0.00       0.02        0.03        0.00 msg               0.04         0.03        0.25.
                    LSUS                  4                0.0         0.0         0.0.       0.0         1.0.       0.2         0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
                    MAES                  9              0.00        0.00        0.021       0.34       2.13        0.07        0.00       0.00        0.02        0.00        0.00       0.00         0.00        0.30
                                          8                0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         1.1        0.6         0.1         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
                    PAES                  9              0.00        0.00        0.02        0.14       1.41        0.01        0.00       0.001       0.03        0.00        0.00       0.00         0.00        0.18
                    PAQ                   4              0.00        0.00        0.00        0.08 >.71        >.89              0.00       0.00        0.00        0.00        0.00       0.00         0.00 msg
                    SUT                   4                0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0 >2.0               0.3         0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
                    WAS                   8          msa             0.02        0.07        0.23       0.92        0.021 msg              0.02        0.03        0.00        0.00       0.00         0.00        0.17
                    WAS3                  17             0.00        0.00        0.07        0.40       0.27        0.00        0.03       0.02        0.00        0.02        0.00       0.00         0.00        0.17
                    Susitna Basin
                    5HR                   16             0.00        0.11        0.25        2.83       1.00        0.37        0.15       0.24        0.09        0.03        0.09       0.07         0.61        0.05
                    ACR                   8              0.00        0.00        0.02        0.11       0.61        0.00       -0.11       0.22        0.09        0.04        0.00       0.00         0.30 msa
                    CANT                  20             0.00        0.00        0.00.       0.00       0.06        0.03,       0.02       0.03        0.14        0.05        0.00       0.00         0.02        0.0@
                    CLAK                  8              0.00        0.00        0.16        0.10       0.57        0.24        0.12       0.22        0.06        0.12        0.00       0.00         0.30        0.32
                    LAK                   9              0.00        0.02        0.24        0.15       0.56        0.10        0.06       0.311msg                0.02        0.02 mso         msg          msg
                    PTI                   16             0.00        0.00        0.06        1.54       0.63        0.07        0.00       0.291       0.08        0.00        0.00       0.05         0.14        0.09
                    SKW                   16             0.00        0.00        0.08        0.42       0.61              msQ         msg         msg              0.00        0.00       0.03         0.34        0.00
                                          9              0.00        0.08        0.20        0.03       0.31        0.00        0.00       0.13        0.09        0.04        0.00       0.00         0.15        0.15
                    TKA                   20         msg             0.00        0.16        0.03       0.21        0.01        0.05       0.05        0.24        0.00        0.01       0.07         0.25        0.281
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                    TML                   4                0.01        0.0         0.0        0.0         0.01       0.01        0.01        0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
                    K      ' I I r
                     BI
                    A 7D
                    CHIN
                    INT

                    r
                     SUS
                     AES
                    MAG
                           S
                    PAE
                    PAO
















                    SKW
                    SUN
                    FTKA
                    TML
                    WIL                   8              0.001       0.00        0.22        0.021      0.261       0.001       0.001      0.17        0.061       0.00        0.00       0.00         0.001       0.141
                    WILW                  11             n QQ1msq        -       n 9n        0-051      0-191       0,011       0011       0.11:31     0,001mqg                0.04 msg








                  Table 5 Daily Precipitation for Last Half of September at Selected Stations
                          @O,bs TTi 7me7l-
                  :S:ite:@:::   (Loc Std)          09/17    09/18        09/19     09/20     09/21      09/22      09/23     09/24      09/25     09/26      09/27     09/28     09/29       09/30
                   oDoer River Basin
                  5GN                 17            0.00       0.00      0.00       0.20      1.68       0.32       0.02      0.02      0.00       0.00       0.00      0.00        0.00       0.13
                  5PX                 20            0.00       0.00      0.00       0.00      0.17       0.00       0.00      0.15      0.20       0.00       0.00      0.00        0.11       0.03
                  GAK                 9             0.00       0.00      0.00-      0.00      0.00       0.11       0.04      0.05      0.12       0.03       0.00      0.00        0.04       0.00
                  GKN                 4             0.00       0.00      0.00       0.00 msg             0.02       0.00      0.00      0.00       0.00       0.00      0.00        0.00       0.00
                  KCAM                9             0.00       0.00      0.00       0.00      0.05       0.05       0.10      0.07      0.28       0.12       0.00      0.00        0.00       0.00
                  LIKSLI              17            0.00       0.00      0.00       0.00      0.06       0.00       0.08      0.11      0.13       0.00       0.00      0.00        0.00       0.00
                  MXY                 18            0.001      0.00      0.09       0.09      1.39       0.70       0.32      0.031     0.09       0.00       0.001     0.00        0.03       0.03
                  TON                 7             0.001      0.001     0.001      0.001     1.32       0.70       0.04      0.06      0.11       0.00       0.00      0.00        0.00       0.05
                  Prince William Sound and Gulf of        laska Coastline
                  5WT                 21            0.00       2.75      1.82      10.92      3.09       2.17       1.06      1.65      2.64       0.26       0.00      1.09        1.96       1.64
                  CDN                 14            0.00       0.00      0.91       2.30      6.02       1.55       0.21      0.80      1.43       1.15       0.00      0.00        0.70       0.53
                  CDV                 4             0.00       0.00      0.53       0.29      3.45                  0.12      0.06      1.59       0.68       0.00      0.00        0.12       0.65
                  MAIN                10            0.00       1.05      1.32       6.65      3.50       0.90       0.37      1.26      2.79       0.81       0.05      0.00        2.39       1.2
                  PTSW                12            0.00       0.67      0.22       3.13      1.81       0.63       0.39      0.39      1.23       0.77       0.00      0.12        1.91       0.53
                  VWS                 mid       msg            0.001     0.161      0.27      0.93       2.43       0.08      0.20      0.51       0.49       0.04      0.00        0.10       0.40
                  YAK                 mud       msg            Q.001     0.111      006       141        5,401      3-4FI     0-00      0-021      O-isl      n.00      0,001       0,101      a-Rfi




















                                                                                                   Appendix 11-7









                                                                     Table 6 Preliminary Estimates of Flood Recurrance Intervals
                                                                                          Supplied by the U. S. Geological Survey
                                                                                                          Water Resources Division

                                  Station              Station Name          Peak Stage            Peak                  Sept 95              Date of               Sept95                 Recurrance
                                  Number                                     of Record             Discharge of          Peak Stage           Peak                  Peak                   Interval
                                                                                                   Record                                                           Discharge              Estimates



                                                       Lowe R nr
                                  XXXXXXXX             Valdez                                                                                 9/21                  -19,OW                  -100 year'



                                                       Tiekel R nr
                                  XXXXXXXX             Tiekel                                                                                                       to be det



                                                       Tonsina R at
                                  15208000             Tonsina               n.a.                  8,400                 22.13                9/22                  7,000                  10 year



                                                       Rock Creek nr
                                  15208200             Tonsina.              6.26                  225                   5.85                 9/22                  115                    10 year



                                                       Strelna Cr                                                                                                                          < mean
                                  15211700             nr Chitina            n.a.                  670                   17.54                9/22                  76                     annual



                                                       O'Brien Cr
                                  15211900             nr Chitina            2.70                  1,850                 3.91                                       to be det



                                                       Copper R
                                  15212000             nr Chitina            37.30                 380,000               28.09                                      244,000                15-20 year



                                                       Boulder Cr
                                  15212500             nr Tiekel             11.72                 1,330                 10.58                9/22                  484                    10 year


                                                       Copper R
                                  15214000             at Million            48.54                 309,000               51.73                9/23                  365,000                >100 year



                                                       Power Cr
                                  15216000             nr Cordova            7.18                  6,060                 5.68                 9/21                  2,680                  2 year


                                                       Ptarmigan Cr
                                  15212800             trib Valdez           n.a.                  85                                         9/22                  to be det



                                                       Nicolet Cr
                                  15215990             nr Cordova            19.54                 940                   18.50                                          -580               <annualpeak


                                                       Mineral Cr                                                                                                                          not peak
                                  15227500             or Valdez             n.a.                  5,570                 13.14                9/22                  2,930                  ofrecord



                                                       Shakespeare
                                  15236200             Cr                    12.81                 620                   15.05                                      to be det












                                                                                                               Appendix 11-8













                                        Station Name        Peak Stage          Peak                Sept 95             Date of             Sept 95             Recurrance
                    Station                                 of Record           Discharge of        Peak Stage          Peak                Peak                Interval
                    Number                                                      Record                                                      Discharge           Estimates



                                        Hobo Cr
                    15236000            nr Whittier         5.14                994                 7.90                9/19                2.900b



                                        San Juan R
                    15237360            nr Seward           9.08                3,930               8.19                9/20                3,810               25 year



                                        Mt. Alice Cr
                    15237550            nr Seward           18.77               1,340               18.07               9/20                822



                                        Glacier Cr                                                  9.61                9/20                945                 <5 year
                    15237900            at Bruno Rd         15.70               4,200               9.91,               9/24@               1040



                                        Salmon Cr
                    15238010            nr Seward           n.a.                8,500               9.43                9/20                1610


                                        Rudolph Cr
                    15238400            at Sewaard          unknown             1,020               14.09               9/20                134                 2 year




                                        Lowell Or at
                    15238490            city wells          unknown             unknown             10.89                                   1690


                                        Spruce Cr           13.96               13,600              7.29                9/20                2,600               5 year
                    15238600            nr Seward           unknown             5,426



                                        Upper
                    15238990            Bradley R           13.54               774                 15.1                9/20                3,3W                >50 year



                                        Middle Fork
                    15239050            Bradley R           8.53                1,120               8.86                9/20                1,470               >100 year



                                        Fritz Cr
                    15239500            nr Homer            datum               852                 10.77                                                       > annualpeak



                                        Anchor nr
                    15239900            Anchor Pt           7.42                6,050               3.90                                    1,060               <2 year



                                        Anchor at
                    15240000            Anchor Pt           -                   3,030               4.10                                    1,750               <2 year



                                        Kenai R
                    15258000            Cooper
                                        Landing             17.18               23,100              16.23               9/23                20,300              25 year'

                                        Kenai at
                    15266300            Soldoma             13.45               33,700              14.50               9/24                42,300              >100 year



                                        California Cr
                    15272530            at Girdwood         datum               600                 16.4                                    760'                >100 year








                                                                                           Appendix 11-9













                                                   Station Name        Peak Stage          Peak                Sept 95             Date of             Sept 95             Recarrance
                               Station                                 of Record           Discharge of        Peak Stage          Peak                Peak                Interval
                               Number                                                      Record                                                      Discharge           Estimates



                                                   Glacier Cr
                               15272550            at Girdwood         7.90                7,710               6.75                9/20                5,600               <10 year


                                                   Ship Cr nr                                                  6.52 inst
                               15276000            Anchorage           6.38                2,100               7.4 hwrn            9/21                1,890b              >50 year
                                                                                                               4.74 (old ga.)                          1,700

                                                   Cub Cr                                                                                                                  possible peak
                               15271900            nr Hope             12.09               54                  12.90                                   to be det           ofrecord


                                                   Eagle R at
                               15277100            Eagle River         9.49                6,240               11.0                                    10,300              >500 year



                                                   Peters Cr nr
                               15277410            Birchwood           5.73                1,200               10.4                9/21                5,000               >500 year



                                                   EUutna Cr
                               1528MOO             or Palmer                                                   k


                                                   Knik R nr           25.30'              359,000f            17.6                9/22                152,000             >500 yeae
                               15281000            Palmer              15.169              84,0009



                                                   Matanuska R
                               15284000            at Palmer           13.60h              82,000h             13.04               9/22                46,000              <100 year



                                                   Johnson nr
                               15294700            Tuxedni Bay                                                 15.0                                    to be det



                                                   Paint R
                               15294900            Kamishak            14.46               17,400              16.12               9/20                26,300              >100 year



                                                   Terror R or
                               15295700            Kodiak              3.89                2,170d              7.67                9/19                9.7W                >100 year d


                                                   Kizhuyak R at
                               15297485            Port Lions          9.19                2,740               11.2                9/19                6,560               15 year


                                                   Portage
                               15272280            Creek               10.69               13,100              10.69               9/20                13,100              15 year


                               * less than                                                                     f.--caused by release of stored water (Lake George) behind Knik
                               * greater than                                                                  Glacier
                               - approximately                                                                 g-excluding glacial breakout floods
                               n.a. not applicable                                                             h-result of a lake breakout
                               a-computed from regional regressions (Jones and Fahl, 1994)                     i-result of release of impounded water from an avalanche-debris
                               b-this value was determined from an indirect measurement of peak                dam
                               flow                                                                            j.--excluding debris dam breakout
                               c-floods at this station usually caused by glacier4ake breakouts on             k-high water marks flagged and leveled, unable to locate old
                               the Snow River                                                                  datum, no further work planned
                               d-flow regulated                                                                I-after Bear Creek diversion into Glacier Creek
                             _@t
                               S



























































                                                                                                     Appendix II-10









                                 &'&Vpendix I I I


                               Damage Reports


       Appendix III.1       Introduction

       The damage reports given here were compiled from interviews with
       and reports by road crews, emergency operations center staff,
       Alaska State Troopers, and city government staff.



       Appendix 111.2      Cordova and Surrounding Area

       Much of this information is courtesty of George Keeny, Cordova
       Public Works Department. His phone number is 424-6220. Cordova
       received close to 9Y2 inches of rain in 2 days (September 19-20).
       Warm temperatures caused the glacier-fed Scott River to rise which
       then caused the Eyak River, which drains Eyak Lake, to backup to
       levels nearly 6 feet above normal.

       other problems caused by the rain and glacial melt due to warm
       temperatures were as follows:

       Copper River highway


          Bridge number 349 Scott River number 2      Some loss of riprap
          under the bridge.

          Bridge number 351 Scott River number 4        Abutment fill and
          riprap washout, pavement failure.

          Bridge number 410 Scott River number 10     Some loss of riprap
          near the bridge.

          Bridge number 230 Sheridan Glacier River - Abutment riprap
          washout, both abutments. Wash out of spur dike riprap.

          Bridge number 333 Copper River   Abutment number I fill washout,
          some damage to dike.

          Bridge number 334 Copper River    Debris on piers.

          Bridge 339 - Debris on piers.

          Bridge number 340 Copper River     Abutment number 1 riprap and
          fill washout. Damage to spur dike nose. 2,000 feet of erosion


                                 Appendix III-1










               along road fill upstream side.

               Bridge 342 - No new damage above that which occurred to east
               spur dike this summer. More water is now going back toward 340
               and ahead toward 344.    Embankment fill is washed out at mile
               37.5 between 342 and 344. Debris on piers at 342.

               Bridge number 345 Copper River - Debris on piers.

               Mile 41-43 - Several surface washouts in low spots. Adjustments
               will be made to 37-49 contract now being advertised.

               Bridge number 206 Million Dollar Bridge - A false bent, near the
               164 earthquake damaged pier 3, which apparently supported, at
               least in part, the north end of the 450 foot third span truss,
               has been lost.     The false bent is now downstream of and
               completely free of the superstructure. Existing cracks in the
               quake damaged pier appear to have widened. This bridge has been
               closed indefinately until structural assessments can be made.

               Dayville road bridges - Debris on piers, no other damage noted
               at this time.


            DOT Future Projects


               Scott River Flood Control (George Keeny) - "We had just
               completed the Scott River Dike project prior to the September 21
               storm. Although the grade of the dike was raised more than 3
               feet, the water came to within less than a foot of the top of
               the dike. It appears that Scott River is tending to flow more
               on the west side (where the dike is) than on the east (toward
               the aiport). Further grade raises of the dike are limited by
               low steel elevations and hydraulic capacity of the Scott Tiver
               bridges.  This project must be in close coordination with the
               City of Cordova because the Scott River is now causing problems
               downstream of the highway where it dumps into, and back up Eyak
               River.ff


            Additional information via phone conversation with George Keeny
            (some of which apparently duplicates above DOT information)
            indicated this damage:

               7 - 13 mile - Bridge washouts due to high water. Bridge at 8
               mile had only asphalt hanging in the air.

               Eyak River    Flooded the 6 mile and 6 1/2 mile subdivisions.

               Eyak Lake   Ketchum Air building had 2Y2 - 3 feet of water on


                                      Appendix 111-2










         the first level. Six houses had basement flooding. The
         Municipal airport was submerged.

         Mile 14-16 - IY2 lanes were washed away by the Sheridan Glacier
         River. At the 14 mile bridge, one abutment was washed out.

         Mile 34-35 - Y2 of a lane was washed out.


         Mile 37 - Dykes on either side of the bridge began to wash
         away.


         Mile 38 - Water over the road washed the road topping off.

         Million Dollar Bridge - High water took out one support on the
         eastern approach.

       Appendix 111.3   Valdez and Surrounding Area



       Information supplied by Lynn Chrystal, official in Charge of the
       Valdez Weather Service Office.


       Valdez received 3.63 inches of rain during the three day period
       from September 19-21. Warm temperatures were also cited as
       contributing factors to high water levels along glacial fed and
       snowmelt fed streams and rivers in the area. Here are Lynn's
       comments:


         "The rain event of September 20 -21 throughout much of south
         central Alaska did not really hit Valdez proper with a lot of
         rain. Water levels in Keystone Canyon, however, were the
         highest since the big flood of August, 1981.

         As the storm unfolded, it looked like Valdez would not receive
         the really heavy amounts forecasted for areas around Seward
         due to the upper level wind direction (more southeast as
         opposed to the really wet south to southwesterlies).

         This turned out to be true for the immediate Valdez area, as
         rainfall amounts for the three day period ending on the 21st
         were 3.63 inches, which is a lot of rain but nothing really
         heavy. In fact, just about ten days earlier, we had a stretch
         of rain that brought 4.63 inches in four days (7.08 inches in
         eight days) with no flooding at all.

         The first indication that something more serious was going on
         was when Gene Petrescu (a meteorologist intern), was driving
         out of Valdez on his way to a new assignment in Montana. Gene


                                 Appendix 111-3










              called from Thompson Pass to say that it was really raining
              hard all the way from Keystone Canyon to the Pass and that the
              river was way up. At the same time, we had less than a tenth
              of an inch in town in several hours. About an hour later,
              Gene called back and said that the DOT had closed the road at
              mile 47 and that he could not get through. He also relayed
              that it was still raining hard. This was all taking place
              Thursday morning, the 21st.

              I then called the River Forecast Center in Anchorage and
              brought them up to speed on what was happening just east of
              Valdez. They then included Valdez in the flood warnings
              already out for much of south central Alaska.

              In the flood of 1981, we had a very wet July with 8.96 inches
              of water. As we went into August of 1995, we already had high
              water levels in the rivers due to the heavier than normal
              rain. Warmer than normal temperatures also caused high water
              levels due to snow melt in the high country and glacial melt.

              In the first 20 days of August, we had over 18 inches or rain,
              including 14.44 inches in a ten day stretch (5th - 15th).
              This caused a thousand feet of road in the canyon to
              completely wash out and also was responsible for heavy damage
              in the 40 - 60 mile area of the Richardson Highway. In this
              case, the rain we had in Valdez was at least a good indicator
              of what was happening just east and north of town.

              In this most recent event, this was not the case. We had no
              idea a serious problem was developing. Information is lacking
              between Valdez and Gulkana. I live just a few feet away from
              Mineral Creek, which drains a large canyon just north of
              downtown Valdez. Whenever it rains hard, I personally check
              it at least twice a day. During this period, the creek was
              not anything out of the ordinary, considering the rainfall we
              recorded in Valdez, itself.

              Based on my past observations (and having witnessed not only
              the flood of 1981 but many other rain events since that time),
              I concluded that we had some serious rainfall just out of
              Valdez, where we have no recording devices. To have water in
              Keystone Canyon come up to almost the same level seen in 1981
              would require an incredible amount of rain in a short time.


              This storm was not only a real rain producer, but was also
              very warm and most likely caused by quite a bit of snow melt
              in the high country and also considerable glacial melt that
              just added to the heavy rainfall.


                                     Appendix 111-4











         In the wintertime, when we do get snowfall data at Thompson
         Pass from DOT, storms that drop a foot of snow in Valdez will
         sometimes drop two to three feet in the Pass. This is not a
         hard and fast rule, of course, and without more information on
         upper level wind flow into and near the Prince William Sound
         area, we will never be able to pinpoint which storms will dump
         more rain over that area and not in Valdez itself (the
         Middleton Island radar may provide a significant amount of
         help in this area). This particular storm was probably like
         some of those winter storms that dump heavy snow in Thompson
         Pass. In this case, however, because it was all rain with
         quick -runoff", the results were more serious."

         Lynn also sent back this damage information:

       Richardson Highway

         Lowe River drainage - Keystone Canyon - Milepost 14 -
         15 ... 500+ feet of riprap damage. Some loss of shoulder
         material.


         Bridge number 557 ... Lowe River lower crossing - Had water on
         the superstructure. Richardson Highway closed September 21.
         This is not the first time this has occurred. A project to
         raise the grade/bridge should be considered. Debris on piers.
         Some loss of rock around abutments. 3,000 CY +/- gravel needs
         to be excavated from under and downstream of the bridge.

         Bridge number 1383 ... Lowe River lower Keystone - Loss of all
         remaining rock protection upstream of abutment 1.

       Tsaina River drainage

         Milepost 33 - River ran along and cut into embankment. Need
         for bank protection or finger dikes for 2,000 feet.



       Tiekel River drainage

         Bridge number 1221 Tiekel River number 1 - Loss or riprap and
         abutment fill abutment 1. Pavement removed by maintenance.
         Abutment fill has been repaired by M&O.

         Milepost 47 - Washout due to creek overflow on Alyeska
         pipeline. material and debris deposited on road closed the
         Richardson Highway September 21. Erosion of shoulders and


                                 Appendix 111-5









              foreslopes. Deposition of debris in ditches. Billy Mitchell
              Wayside overrun by flood, erosion and debris.

              Milepost 58 - Washout of embankment, no loss of pavement. Cut
              bank is approximately 30 feet high and daylights within 10
              feet of pavement.

              Milepost 60 - Washout of highway including one lane of
              pavement. Richardson Highway closed to traffic September 21
              22.


            Tonsina River drainage


              Milepost 76 - Lost 200 feet of bank, need 600 feet of bank
              protection.


            Edgerton Highway


              Milepost 20*.4 - Estimated 320 CY material on road from slide.

              Milepost 20.7 - Estimated 400 CY material on road from slide.


            Copper River Highway - south of Chitina


              Bridge 1306 O'Brien Creek - Abutment sills have scoured and
              the cribs have lost all gravel fill. Bridge appears to be in
              original position.

              Bridge 1307 Haley Creek - Some scour at abutments. River too
              high to fully assess.

              There are six known mudslides between Fox Creek and Haley
              Creek.



            Future Projects


              Richardson Highway Milepost 45 -79 erosion - More than 15
              problem areas and potential problem areas have been identified
              by M&O in the Tiekel and Upper Tonsina drainages.

              Bridge 557 - Grade raise and/or replacement. The water in
              Keystone Canyon came up against the superstructure on
              September 21 and also back in 1981. Loss of this bridge would
              close the Richardson Highway for an extended period.





                                      Appendix 111-6











       Appendix IIIA     Knik River and Hunter Creek

       This information was compiled through discussions with area
       residents and State of Alaska workers who were building a new
       bridge across Hunter Creek at the time of the flood.

       One resident, who lives just west of the Hunter Creek Bridge,
       reported 3% inches of rain in a two day period (probably
       September 19-20). He commented,"Who knows how much rain fell in
       the surrounding mountains?ff    Warm temperatures, which caused
       increased glacial melt, were also cited as contributors to high
       water levels on Hunter Creek. Several residents mentioned that
       these rains were the heaviest rains they had ever experienced in
       this location. one local said he had not seen rainfall as hard
       or heavy in the area for over 25 years (he was also interested in
       any instrumentation the Weather Service might want to place on
       his property to monitor either the creek or weather conditions).
       These were the highest water levels he had ever seen. Large
       trees were washed downstream, lodging in bridge supports. The
       fast moving water then scoured out these supports. It did not
       take long for the one lane bridge to collapse into the raging
       creek. one pickup truck barely escaped the bridge failure. A
       reported 27 people were airlifted from the east side of the creek
       by National Guard helicopters, including at least 2 hunters whose
       vehicle was stranded on the east side of the creek for close to 2
       weeks.


       Hunter Creek rises sharply upstream from the bridge. There are
       apparently two glaciers which   feed Hunter Creek. In the past,
       there have been slides in the   mountainous areas upstream from the
       bridge. These created "mini"    natural dams. When these dams
       break, sometimes due to heavy   rainfall, water levels rise sharply
       for an hour or two, then fall   very quickly. Hunter Creek has had
       at least a few "flash" floods   in the past from this sequence of
       events. The new bridge, which should be finished in the next few
       weeks, will be two lanes (as opposed to one on the old one) and
       will be constructed in such a way as to greatly diminish the
       threat of a washout.


       Other problems caused by the rain and glacial melt due to warm
       temperatures were as follows:

       Just west of the Old Glenn Highway Bridge across the Knik River
       was evidence of a new, very large slide, apparently triggered by
       these same heavy rains in the mountains. Although the road was
       clear and open, it was very apparent that the slide had crossed
       the entire road, closing it for a short time.


                                  Appendix 111-7










            Gravel and rock also washed down from the mountains during the
            heavy rains. These were cleared from the smaller creeks that
            drain into the Knik from the mountains to the south. Workers
            cleaned fresh gravel out of many of the creeks along the Old Knik
            River Road, piling the rocks in stacks close to the road next to
            the streams.


            Piles of gravel were left along Goat Creek, just upstream along
            the Knik from the Eklutna Tailrace.




















































                                     Appendix 111-8









                                   Appen ix IV
                                   'LL-1


                              Flood-Incident Lgg


                Alaska Department of Emergency Services


       The following are excerpts from the Alaska Department of
       Emergency Service's Electronic Communications System. The system
       is based on a commercial software package called "First Class" to
       electronically support composition, storage, and distribution
       flood information to selected emergency management organizations.
       First Class is essentially an electronic mail type of system.
       All dates are in year 1995. Times are in Alaska Standard Time
       (24 hour clock).

       September 20          14:12      Emergency Operations Center (EOC)

             EOC started their flood log.

       September 20          15:51      Girdwood

             Twenty percent of the roads in the Girdwood area are
             impassable because of high water and the backup of water in
             the Culverts. Real concern is the next high tide and the
             water backing up even farther in the area.

       September 20          16:02      Seward

             Water is running across 1/4 mile of the Seward Highway 3-6"
             deep. Debris is being washed across the road. The water is
             going through the rail yard. Port Road is over topped. The
             old meal plant building is damaged. Lowell Point bridge is
             now completely washed away. The water from the Lowell Creek
             area backs up to Rail Road Street and Seward Highway about
             1/4 mile. The Institute of Marine Science has had water in
             the laboratory.

       September 20          16:13      Girdwood

             There have been some reports of homes flooding. Public
             works is presently trying to fill in the edges of the roads
             and bridges with rocks to prevent erosion. Many of the
             culverts are stopped up with debris which is causing some
             roads to over flow with water. The stream that did cause
             some flooding at the school was diverted by public works
             personnel; therefore the flooding at the school is no


                                   Appendix IV-1










                  longer a problem.

             September 20         16:45      Girdwood

                  The main concerns are: 1) The creek that flows off of: the
                  ski slope has overflowed in the vicinity of the jade shop
                  and has caused some damage to a few streets and driveways.
                  2) In the area of the junction of Old Seward and Old
                  Girdwood when the tide comes in, they may have to move about
                  100 people.

             September 20         16:50      Kodiak

                  Everything in Kodiak is presently holding. Public works is
                  monitoring all culverts and retainer walls. They have
                  cleared several small mud slides behind the retainer walls.
                  Also a person was swept away from his truck at the American
                  River. He was rescued.


             September 20         17:27      Seward

                  There is an amateur radio operator standing by there to
                  assist if needed. His name is Ed, call sign is VE6NH.

             September 20         17:33      Seward

                  This city is experiencing extensive damage to roads and
                  bridges, flood control dikes and levees, water and sewer
                  facilities, power and harbor facilities, as well as personal
                  property and real property.

             September 20         17:50      Seward


                  STATUS REPORT:


                       Roads closed: Numerous
                       Bridges closed: Several
                       Flooded areas: UAF Institute of Marine Science, lagoon,
                       Army Recreation Camp.
                       Airport: Closed except for helicopter service.
                       Potential problems: Lagoon full, Exit Glacier full to
                       bridge, Japanese Creek at dump, mile 3 Seward Highway.

             September 20         18:14      Seward

                  The ALASCOM fiber between Seward and Anchorage may be
                  preempted at two points. The circuits current on fiber have
                  been moved to satellite. HF communications may be the only


                                         Appendix IV-2










            way out. INMARSAT may not be available if the DES Team is
            not allowed to use the highway into Seward. With the Rural
            Television System down, no EBS can be used.

       September 20          18:57     Mat Su Valley

            One bridge out on Hunter Creek Road Bridge, the approaches
            are gone on Knik River Road.

       September 20          19:29     Girdwood

            Currently one family has been evacuated. Two to three homes
            are in danger. Glacier Creek is 61' from breeching it's
            banks. It could continue until the Seward Highway becomes
            flooded. No known prediction yet. Twenty percent of the
            side roads in Girdwood Valley are impassable. Conditions at
            Girdwood (16:00) constant 10 to 20 mph winds, rain
            increasing again.





       September 20          19:52     Seward

            Mud slide at mile 16 Seward Highway is clear but water
            remains high at river crossing.

       September 20          21:53     Seward


            PRESS RELEASE--#1


            The City of Seward and the Kenai Peninsula Borough continue
            to operate under a state of emergency. Several evacuation
            orders are in effect. Several area roads remain closed.
            Flooding has occurred in numerous areas.


       September 21          02:25     Girdwood

            22:34 update: Conditions   stable, water treatment plant shut
            down. Sewage into Glacier Creek. Fire Department officials
            report a drop in water level throughout the night.

       September 21          03:06     Seward

            Seward reports stable conditions.

       September 21          03:10     Cooper Landing



                                   Appendix IV-3









                  Kenai River is bank full, but holding.

             September 21         06:29      Seward

                  Seward reports  water level dropping, no significant changes
                  from last night.

             September 21         06:31      Girdwood

                  Girdwood remains stable.


             September 21         07:24      Unknown

                  Unconfirmed reports of damage to the Alaska Rail Road
                  facilities. Police department reports possible damage to
                  bridge. The bridge appears to have structural damage.

             September 21         07:46      Whittier

                  Work being done on bridge outside Whittier today. They are
                  also working on mud slides at mile 18 and mile 21.


             September 21         08:07      All Areas

                  ETATUS @EPORT - Problem Areas this Mornina after Heavy Rain

                  Between mile 75 and 83 of the Glenn Highway, continuing
                  problems with rocks slides due to rain.


                  Approximately 75 to 100 feet of south bound lane at Knik
                  River Bridge has almost all been washed out.


                  Hunter Creek - Palmer/Old Glenn Highway, the creek has
                  overflowed and washed out.


                  The Old Glenn Highway at mile 8.5 in Palmer is currently
                  closed due to mud and rock slides.


                  The town of Girdwood is still experiencing some other
                  problems due to the volume of rain.


                  Girdwood: The state roads are currently open. Crow Creek
                  Mine Road had a washout last night. Currently it is clear
                  and open.


                  The dike outside the town of Seward by Exit Glacier is a
                  major concern this morning. If the dike does not hold and


                                         Appendix IV-4










             breaks, the town could be flooded with at least 4 feet of
             water.


             The town of Seward has had over 9 inches of rain since
             Tuesday. Mile 3 of the Seward Highway is currently closed.


       September 21          09:14      Seward

             Alaska State Troopers report the dike above town in Seward
             has broken; Helo 1 will be tied up evacuating people.

       September 21          09:18      Palmer - Knik

             At 08:19, Alaska State Troopers received a report that road
             north of Hunter Creek was flooding.

             The river is reportedly rising at 1 foot per hour. If this
             continues, an immediate flooding problem could occur.

       September 21          09:24      Seward

             Confirmed ... Exit Glacier dike had broken and the Bear Creek
             Fire Department was evacuating the Camelo subdivision.

       September 21          09:58      Knik

             Peters Creek Bridge on the Old Glenn Highway is collapsing.
             The road is being barricaded.

       September 21          10:21      Knik

             The Hunter Creek bridge has been lost. The bridge has
             dropped about five feet today.

       September 21          10:33      Mat Su Valley

             Mile 90 of the Glenn Highway (Cascade Creek), water reported
             over 2/3rds of  the highway, eroding ditch and washing out
             the highway.

             Severe erosion  problems exist along the bridges as well as
             power poles.



       September 21          11:01      Seward

             Rolf Bardarson  reports his home is threatened by flood
             waters.



                                   Appendix IV-5










             September 21         11:32      Kodiak

                  No flood problems at   Kodiak.

             September 21         11:36      Seward

                  11:44: Old Mill subdivision at mile 8 Seward Highway was
                  also evacuated as a result of the Box Canyon levy breaking.

             September 21         11:36      Eagle River

                  Report that the Eagle River Camp Ground was flooding.

             September 21         12:04      Moose Pass

                  Moose Pass School is shut down and water is running through
                  the school.


             September 21         12:22      Girdwood

                  Girdwood creeks were   going down. Maintenance workers are
                  shoring Aleyeska Bridge.     The Old Glenn Highway is closed
                  because the Peters Creek Bridge is out.

             September 21         12:27      Kenai

                  Field report from Kenai Keys indicates water 1211 deep in
                  places with some roads covered. Water entering some cabins.



             September 21         12:4S      Seward


                  STATUS REPORT - Seward Plood Repor


                  Current Threats:
                  Wash out of Box Canyon Levy. Sewer Lagoon may have flooded.


                  Public Facilities:
                  Alaska Railroad-one bridge out.
                  School closed
                  Waterfall Bridge is out.
                  Seward Harbor    silting up
                  Seward Airport    partially flooded


                  Roads and Highways:


                  Numerous highways flooded and some bridges out.



                                         Appendix IV-6










       September 21          12:51      Seward

             The northeast side of the ramp at Port Avenue and Harbor
             road has a large washout 6-8' deep, 200' wide and 800, long.
             The Lowell Creek Tunnel water flow has removed the abutment
             and access on both sides of the bridge. The bridge is
             severely damaged and may need to be replaced.

       September 21          12:53      Skwentna

             Alaska State Troopers report the Skwentna River was flooding
             in Skwentna. River has risen 9-10 feet since yesterday.
             Also 2 feet in the last 2 hours. Waters is 2 feet from the
             airport and has surrounded the school. Several roads have
             flooded. Worse than the 1986 flood.


       September 21           14:08     Girdwood

             Culvert failure  is on Crow Creek Road. Bridge abutment
             damage at Glacier Creek.

       September 21          14:30      Knik

             The Hunter Creek 77 foot bridge is now a 100 foot gap.
             Water is about 4 feet below the ARR bridge and over the
             highway. The windsong subdivision is impacted and there is
             water close to the houses.


       September 21          14:47      Knik

             Alaska State Troopers--the Old Glenn Highway has been closed
             at the Knik River bridge as of 14:30 Thursday due to high
             water and flooding.

       September 21          14:48      Knik

             Palmer alternate is closed due to high water. Vehicles are
             stalling.

       September 21          15:17      Eagle River

             Tom Brooks of the Alaska Railroad stated the temporary Eagle
             River bridge above the railroad trestle was in danger of
             washing away.


       September 21          15:35      Seward


             SEWARD HIGHWAY --STATUS REPORT



                                   Appendix IV-7











                  1 Mile ... approximately 12 to 14 inches of water OVer the top
                  of the Seward Highway for approximately 1,000 feet.        There
                  did not appear to be any damage to the highway surface. The
                  city of Seward closed the highway to regular traffic at Nash
                  Road and the northern most access road to the Seward small
                  boat harbor. There was some loss of material at the
                  shoulder.


                  The airport ... the long runway is under water. Minimal
                  damage is estimated. The approach to Cemetery Road bridge
                  was washed out.


             September 21         15:51      Seward

                  Crow Creek Road, there has been damage and the culvert has
                  been removed.


             September 21         17:34      Eagle River

                  The Eagle River, Fort Richardson lower bridge has sustained
                  major damage; it appears that the bridge will fail within a
                  short time.


             September 21         22:55      Girdwood

                  Glacier Creek area, the bridge and creek bank were/are in
                  jeopardy.

             September 21         22:37      Mat Su Valley

                  Knik River Road north of   Hunter Creek cut off due to loss of
                  bridge. Knik River Road    at mile 2 is underwater. Old Glenn
                  Highway at Knik River bridge under water. Highway is
                  currently closed. Skwentna Townsite mostly under water.

             September 22         01:50      Seward

                  The Snow Glacier dam has not broken.


             September 22         02:00      Valdez

                  Valdez Police report   at 01:30, Richardson Highway closed at
                  mile 12. High water    in area.

             September 22         02:03      Cordova

                  Cordova Police  report at 01:45, water is high and some


                                         Appendix IV-8











            families have left homes. Airfield in town is closed.


       September 22          03:49     Seward

            Seward reports   water level dropping in most areas. Japanese
            Creek is still   a problem. Most roads are open.

       September 22          03:52     Kenai

            Kenai reports that water is still rising but has not caused
            evacuation or loss of services yet. There is a small
            landslide on the Sterling Highway (milepost unknown).



       September 22          05:55     All Areas


            OVERALL ASSESSMENT


            The area from Seward to Moose Pass has suffered extensive
            flooding. Flooding in Seward and Bear Creek has stablizied.


            Roads and Highways
            Mostly open a couple washed out and closed.


            Public Facilities
            Alaska Railroad -- Substantial damage sustained; service to
            Seward suspended indefinitely.

            Seward Airport -- Debris on runways, closed to aircraft,
            open to helicopters.


            Waterfall Bridge -- out.


            Residential Areas
            Crown Point and Moose Pass -- flooding
            Old Mill subdivision -- threatened by flooding


            Current Threats
            Accumulated silt in northeast basin may shift into small
            boat harbor. Kenai Lake is very high and Trail Lake at
            Moose Pass is rapidly rising. Glacier Creek and Lost Creek
            continue to rise.


       September 22          07:13     Eagle River

            Both bridges crossing Eagle River on Fort Richardson were
            damaged, but had not washed away during the night.


                                   Appendix IV-9











             September 22          07:34      Palmer/Skwentna

                  The Mat  Su EOC  is staffed beginning at 06:00 today.

             September 22          07:54      Kenai


                  PRESS RELEASE-#


                  All three areas (Cooper Landing, Kenai Keys, and Soldotna)
                  are above flood stage. Persons living along the river and
                  streams in the affected areas are urged to remain alert and
                  take appropriate precautions. Estimated times that the
                  Kenai River will crest are as follows:
                  Cooper Landing        Early Friday
                  Kenai Keys            Mid to Late Friday
                  Soldotna              Saturday

             September 22          08:43      Seward

                  The Alaska Railroad stated they have five places of
                  significant damage on the tracks and up to 24 places they
                  will need to do maintenance repairs. The major problem is
                  Moose Pass. It is under water at this time with no real
                  prediction as to when the water will go down.

             September 22        . 10:22      Valdez/Glennallen

                  Call from Division of Forestry. Reported an individual from
                  mile 78.5 of the Richardson Highway (Bernard Creek area)
                  reported flooding down a road that leads to about 6 homes.




             September 22          10:58      Palmer/Seward

                  Call from Alaska Railroad. They have concerns about Knik
                  River rail bridge receiving damage from high water and
                  debris collecting above the bridge and causing damage. Tom
                  Brook wanted specific information on weather service
                  hydraulics. Gave him Art Armour's (Alaska RFC) number at
                  the National Weather Service. He was also concerned about
                  high water in Moose Pass.

             September 22     11:05     Valdez/Glennallen

                  Situation is Bernard Creek is now running down the private


                                         Appendix IV-10










             drive which leads to 6 homes. One cabin has been damaged.


       September 22          11:10     Seward


             ALASKA RAXLROAD STATUS REPOR


             From mile post 3.5 to mile post 75 there are numerous
             reports of flooding and debris affecting bridges, culverts,
             and undercutting track bed. Eight bridges are being
             impacted.


       September 22          12:15     Cordova

             Mayor Margy Johnson reports that the Scott River Glacier
             drainage is causing-flooding conditions. There are about 40
             families affected. DOT has closed the Copper River Highway,
             and are working on a road washout at mile 4.

       September 22          12:28     Valdez/Glennallen

             Received call from the DNR concerning Bernard Creek area at
             mile 78.5 of the Richardson Highway. The creek has changed
             channels and has taken the road as its main channel. This
             is caused by log jams at the beginning of the road.


       September 22          12:44     Seward


             SEWARD FLOOD STATUS REPORT


             As of 10:45


             Overall Assessment
             The area from Seward to Mosse pass has suffered extensive
             flooding. Flooding in Seward and Bear Creek has stablizied
             and local government is beginning to make damage
             assessments. Most evacuees have returned to their homes.


             Roads and Highways
             Most roads are open. Several however remain closed due to
             flooding.


             Public Facilities
             Alaska Railroad--substantial damage sustained. Service to
             Seward is suspended indefinitely.
             Seward Airport--Closed to aircraft, open to helicopters.
             Moose Pass School--closed.
             Waterfall bridge--out.


                                  Appendix IV-11











                  Other facilities--several affected.


                  Residential Areas
                  Several affected, some evacuation continues.


                  Current Threats
                  Crown point, Moose Pass, Old Mill subdivision, Exit Glacier
                  Road, Resurrection Road, and Meridian Park subdivision.


            September 22          12:49      Skwentna

                  The Skwenta River has risen more since yesterday. Also many
                  more families up the Yetna River are evacuating.

            September 22          13:05      Valdez

                  The city manager stated the dikes along the lower river held
                  overnight and they had no problems.

            September 22          13:20      Whittier

                  Department of Public Safety reported some damage to the DoD
                  fuel tank farm. Also reported was damage to the vehicle
                  bridge that goes to the farm. Some of the pilings are
                  washed out.



            September 22          14:17      Kenai EOC

                  Flooding continues in the Kenai Keys area, some roads under
                  water. Also, flooding in Big Eddy and Poachers Cove.

            September 22          15:02      Richardson Highway mile 60

                  Trooper made a  rescue of  an individual up Falls Creek. The
                  individual had  spent two  days in a front-end loader in the
                  middle of the creek. Individual had vacated his travel
                  trailer which was located in the old creek bed and jumped to
                  the front-end  loader.


            September 22          15:49      Kenai EOC


                  PRESS RELEASE #4


                  Kenai River
                  Water continues to rise. Roads to Kenai Keys are flooded
                  and other roads are threatened. Rivers are expected to
                  crest Friday noon in Cooper Landing area; later Friday in


                                        Appendix IV-12










             Kenai Keys. Rate of rise has slowed, but water is spreading
             more than rising at this point.


             Seward Area
             Blooding continues in low-lying areas and many roads have
             been damaged or have water over the road. Bridges may have
             suffered damage. Rain is light and water in flooded areas
             has begun to gradually recede. No further rise is expected,
             but water may spread further.


       September 22         16:09      Richardson Highway mile 78.5

             Local logging company diverted creek back into the original
             channel.


       September 22         16:09      Fort Richardson Armory


             Power outage.

       September 22         16:16      Benard Creek (Richardson highway)

             Lower Benard Creek overflowing at mile 79 and it was over
             flowing the Tonsina Airstrip through the Tonsina Lodge: some
             small buildings damaged and driveway damage.

       September 22         17:10      Fort Richardson Armory

             Power restored. Reason for the outage is unknown.

       September 22         18:47      Seward


             STATUS REPORT--SEWARD FLOOD (as of 1300 hours)


             Resurrection River continues to rage and is making new
             channels adjacent to the airport and in the industrial area.
             Kenai Lake and Trail Lake are very high. Glacier Creek and
             Lost Creek continue to rise.


       September 22         21:11      Kenai Pen Borough

             "Declaration of Local Disaster Emergency" in the Kenai river
             and Snow river drainages and the Kenai lake area (including
             Moose Point, Crown Point, and Cooper Landing)

       September 23         10:46      Seward




                                  Appendix IV-13










                   Seward Flood Status Report (as of 0900 hrs):
                   Flooding from Seward to Moose Pass has stabilized.
                   Resurrection river continues to rage and is making    new
                   channels adjacent to the airport and in the industrial area.
                   Upper Kenai Lake still very high.

             September 23          13:08      Windsong subdivision (mile 5 Old
             Glenn)

                   Received approximately 2 feet of water throughout the area.
                   Septic systems and holding tanks have failed. Raw sewage in
                   the ditches.


             September 23          13:09      Kenai EOC


                   PRESS RELEASE-#


                   Kenai River levels continue to rise. Checks at Moose Range
                   Meadows Subdivision, Soldotna Creek Park, Poacher's Cove,
                   and Riverbend show a rise of about 6 inches between 10 PM
                   Friday night and 5 AM Saturday morning.

             September 23          14:25      Valdez

                   Some flooding reported in the Alpine Woods subdivision (mile
                   10 Richardson Highway), which is mostly mobile homes. They
                   are experiencing 18 to 24 inches of water from the Lowe
                   River.


             September 23          15:34      Kenai EOC


                   PRESS RELEASE--#


                   The Kenai River is expected to crest today. The river has
                   crested at Cooper Landing at 16.08 feet. The river crested
                   at noon in Kenai Keys at 15,3 feet. The river is expected
                   to crest in the Soldotna area at 2 PM at 14.3 feet.


             September 23          15:42      Kenai EOC


                   News Release
                   The Kenai Peninsula Borough Emergency Management Office has
                   issued evacuation for the following areas: Kenai Keys,
                   Poacher's Cove, Riverside Campground, Big Edd Road area,
                   west of Salmon Run drive, Birch Circle, Salmon Run Drive,
                   and Aurora Court.


             September 23          19:28      Skwentna and Yetna Rivers


                                         Appendix IV-14










             A private pilot called in with a report of the Skwenta and
             Yetna River area as of 1500. He reports the Skwenta airport
             is open to light aircraft, but the lights are out and the
             non-directional beacon is out. The Yetna River is over the
             banks and the Skwenta River is over the banks at about 20
             miles west of Skwentna. The rest of the river appeared
             extremely high.

       September 24          08:22      Anchorage EOC

             Situation Update
             The river levels at Cooper Landing have drooped 3 to 4
             inches as of 4 AM this morning. Kenai Keys level rose from
             15.37 at 1 AM to 15.44 at 7 AM. Overflights of Skwentna to
             upper Yetna shows water level dropping slowly.

       September 24          08:35      Kenai River

             Kenai river levels at Cooper Landing have dropped from 3 to
             4 inches from midnight to 0400 this morning. In the Kenai
             Keys area the water level rose from 15.37 at I am to 15.44
             at 7 am.


       September 24          09:52      Windsong Subdivision

             Area inspected, found no immediate health hazard. Some
             yards have suffered sewage holding tank overflow, which can
             be treated by spreading lime.

       September 24          12:42      Eagle River and Raven Creek

             Damage to trail system and day use cabins estimated at $2 M.

       September 25          11:26      Eagle River (south fork)

             Bridge collapsed. (Washed out a couple of minutes later.)
             (It was later determined that this bridge located on a
             private road and was privately owned.)

       September 25          15:15      Seward

             They have lost 200' of embankment protecting the north side
             of the runway. They have no rip-rap and are tearing up
             sidewalks to re-establish the embankment.


       September 25          16:20      Kenai River

             Kenai River level dropping in Kenai Keys area.


                                   Appendix IV-15










             September 26         07:22      Anchorage

                  Plans for Lt. Governor to visit damage site in Kenai,
                  Soldotna, and Seward.


             September 26         09:12      Kenai Pen Borough


                  PRESS RELEASE--#13


                  Alaska Governor Tony Knowles in Washington D.C. is scheduled
                  to meet later this week with Senator Ted Stevens regarding a
                  possible federal disaster declaration for flood damaged
                  communities. Lt. Governor Fran Ulmer will be traveling to
                  the Kenai Peninsula to inspect flood damage on Tuesday,
                  September 26, 1995.


             September 26         10:41      Anchorage

                  Two helicopters departed   (one for press and one for Lt.
                  Governor)


             September 26         13:21      Kenai

                  Lt. Governor departed Soldotna en route to Seward aboard
                  Black Hawk helicopters.

             September 26         14:34      Benard Creek

                  (78.5 Richardson Highway) Damage IA

             September 26         14:39      Seward


                  Lt. Governor landed


             September 26         15:23      Benard Creek and the Tosina River

                  The locals made a dike to protect their homes.
                  Approximately 6 homes damaged in the area.

             September 26         15:41      Benard Creek

                  Martin Mirical reports they hauled 100 yards of material to
                  dike the creek. The water is going down.

             September 26         15:53      Seward

                  The first aircraft with the press is departing Seward at
                  1600 hours. The second aircraft with the Lt. Gov. Will


                                        Appendix IV-16










             depart approximately 20 minutes later.

       September 26          15:55      Washington D.C.

             Senator Stevens expresses concern for Kenai Flooding in
             Senate statement.


       September 26          16:04      Seward

             Both aircraft are en  route to Anchorage.

       September 26          18:19      Girdwood

             Coliform bacteria is   spreading in Class A public wells.

       September 26          21:15      Homer

             3.5 earthquake, no damage reported.

       September 27          07:39      Girdwood

             Downed power poles and transformer problems.

       September 27          08:23      Skwentna

             Downed power poles and transformer problems.

       September 27          09:16      Girdwood

             Creek threatening airport.

       September 27          20:24      EOC

             Damage reports: Diamond Willow sub division one house off
             foundation, Cooper Landing three houses and one business
             with minor damage, and Poachers Cove 21 houses and 8
             businesses with minor damages, one house and four businesses
             with major damage.



       September 27          20:55      EOC

             Reports from Girdwood, Moose Pass, and Seward have very
             little observable IA damage, but extensive PA damage. Knik
             team did not find extensive 1A damage, however there was
             extensive minor damage to homes , businesses, and rentals in
             Skwentna.




                                   Appendix IV-17










             September 28         11:11      Kenai-Soldotna

                  Soldotna EOC issues Flood Status Report.

             September 28         11:44      Cordova

                  City of Cordova issues a "Declaration of Emergency".

             September 28         18:07      Moose Pass

                  Alaska Pioneer Museum at   Mile 30 (right on highway) has
                  flooded, washed out footing of foundation in back of
                  building.

             September 29         11:50      Matanuska-Susitna Borough


                  Issued an "Amended Disaster Declaration".


             September 29         12:32      Mat-Su

                  Temporary bridge opened up at Hunter Creek. Contracted out
                  a replacement bridge, which will be done in 3 to 4 weeks.

             September 29         13:18      Juneau

                  Statement by Alaska State Legislature.

             September 29         16:35      Kenai Pen. Bour.

                  "Declaration of Local Disaster Emergency"

             September 29         17:56      Juneau

                  "Amendment to Declaration of Disaster Emergency"

             September 30         15:07      EOC

                  Damage report: several areas.


             October 04       13:08    EOC


                  Incident Status  Summary.


             October 18       11:10    RFC


                  Statement by Jerry Nibler: Skilak Glacier dammed lake had
                  released about 25% of its releasable contents.




                                        Appendix IV-18




















































































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