[Senate Report 108-263]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
Calendar No. 514
108th Congress Report
SENATE
2d Session 108-263
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ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH ACT
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R E P O R T
of the
COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
on
S. 1164
May 13, 2004.--Ordered to be printed
SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION
one hundred eighth congress
second session
JOHN McCAIN, Arizona, Chairman
TED STEVENS, Alaska ERNEST F. HOLLINGS, South Carolina
CONRAD BURNS, Montana DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii
TRENT LOTT, Mississippi JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER IV, West
KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas Virginia
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts
SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas JOHN B. BREAUX, Louisiana
GORDON SMITH, Oregon BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota
PETER G. FITZGERALD, Illinois RON WYDEN, Oregon
JOHN ENSIGN, Nevada BARBARA BOXER, California
GEORGE ALLEN, Virginia BILL NELSON, Florida
JOHN E. SUNUNU, New Hampshire MARIA CANTWELL, Washington
FRANK LAUTENBERG, New Jersey
Jeanne Bumpus, Staff Director and General Counsel
Rob Freeman, Deputy Staff Director
Robert W. Chamberlin, Chief Counsel
Kevin D. Kayes, Democratic Staff Director and Chief Counsel
Gregg Elias, Democratic General Counsel
(ii)
Calendar No. 514
108th Congress Report
SENATE
2d Session 108-263
======================================================================
ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH ACT
_______
May 13, 2004.--Ordered to be printed
_______
Mr. McCain, from the Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation, submitted the following
R E P O R T
[To accompany S. 1164]
The Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, to
which was referred the bill (S. 1164) to provide for the
development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated
United States research program that assists the people of the
United States and the world to understand, assess, and predict
human-induced and natural processes of abrupt climate change,
having considered the same, reports favorably thereon without
amendment and recommends that the bill do pass.
Purpose of the Bill
The purpose of this legislation, as reported, is to authorize
the Secretary of Commerce to establish a scientific research
program on abrupt climate change within the Office of Oceanic
and Atmospheric Research of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Background and Needs
According to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), abrupt
climate change is technically defined as when the climate
system is forced to cross a threshold, triggering a transition
to a new state at a response rate that is faster than the rate
of cause of the event itself. It also is defined as climate
change that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that humans
or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it.
In May 2002, NAS completed a review of the current state of
knowledge on abrupt climate change at the request of the United
States Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP) and issued a
report entitled, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises.
According to the NAS report, recent scientific evidence shows
that major and widespread climate changes have occurred in the
past with startling speed. One of the best known examples is
the Younger Dryas cold interval. It was, according to evidence
found in ice cores from Greenland and biological data found in
terrestrial sediments, a nearly global event that began about
12,800 years ago when there was an interruption in the gradual
warming trend that followed the last ice age. According to the
NAS, the data indicates that cooling into the Younger Dryas
occurred in a few prominent decades--long steps, whereas the
warming at the end of it occurred primarily in one especially
large step of about 8 degrees Celsius in about 10 years and was
accompanied by a doubling of snow accumulation in 3 years. The
event ended abruptly about 11,600 years ago. Greenhouse warming
and other human alterations of the climate may increase the
possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global
climatic events. The abrupt changes are not fully explained
yet, and climate models typically underestimate the size,
speed, and extent of those changes.
The report included the following recommendations to the
USGCRP:
NAS should improve the fundamental knowledge
base related to abrupt climate change.
Improve modeling focused on abrupt climate
change.
Improve paleoclimatic data related to abrupt
climate change.
Improve statistical approaches.
Investigate ``no-regrets'' strategies to
reduce vulnerabilities.
The NAS report also states that a new paradigm of an abruptly
changing climatic system has been well established by research
over the last decade, but this new thinking is little known and
scarcely appreciated in the wider community of natural and
social scientists and policymakers. However, policymakers are
actively looking at the issues as evidenced by the Committee's
hearings and the Administration's July 2003 Strategic Plan for
the Climate Change Science Program which calls for research to
address the potential for future changes in extreme events and
uncertainty regarding potential rapid or discontinuous changes
in climate. The program will build upon existing United States
strengths in climate research and modeling.
In January 2004, NAS completed a review of the
Administration's strategic plan. NAS called for urgent action
to implement the activities described in the plan. The plan
also called upon the Administration to secure the financial
resources necessary to ensure the success of the plan.
Legislative History
S. 1164 was introduced on June 2, 2003, by Senator Collins.
Senators Murray, Jeffords, Cantwell, and Snowe were co-sponsors
of the legislation. S. 1164 was referred to the Committee on
Commerce, Science, and Transportation on June 2, 2003. The
provisions contained in S. 1164 were approved by the Senate as
part of a larger climate science package included in the Senate
passed energy bill (H.R. 4). The Committee held hearings on
climate change on January 8, 2003, May 7, 2003, October 3,
2003, and March 3, 2004.
On March 9, 2004, the Committee met in open executive session
and, by a voice vote, ordered S. 1164 reported without any
amendment.
Estimated Costs
In accordance with paragraph 11(a) of rule XXVI of the
Standing Rules of the Senate and section 403 of the
Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the Committee provides the
following cost estimate, prepared by the Congressional Budget
Office:
U.S. Congress,
Congressional Budget Office,
Washington, DC, March 16, 2004.
Hon. John McCain,
Chairman, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
U.S. Senate, Washington, DC.
Dear Mr. Chairman: The Congressional Budget Office has
prepared the enclosed cost estimate for S. 1164, the Abrupt
Climate Change Research Act of 2003.
If you wish further details on this estimate, we will be
pleased to provide them. The CBO staff contact is Susanne S.
Mehlman.
Sincerely,
Douglas Holtz-Eakin,
Director.
Enclosure.
S. 1164--Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2003
Summary: S. 1164 would establish a new research program
within the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and would
authorize the appropriation of $60 million for such a program.
This new program would be responsible for conducting research
on ``abrupt climate change,'' which the bill defines as ``a
change in the climate that occurs so rapidly or unexpectedly
that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to the
climate as changed.'' The research activities would include the
development of advanced geophysical models and the testing of
such models against a global database containing records of
past climate changes.
CBO estimates that implementing S. 1164 would cost a total
of $60 million over the 2005-2009 period, assuming
appropriation of the amount authorized. Enacting S. 1164 would
not affect direct spending or revenues.
S. 1164 contains no intergovernmental or private-sector
mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act and
would impose no costs on state, local, or tribal governments.
Estimated Cost to the Federal Government: For this
estimate, CBO assumes that the bill will be enacted by the
beginning of 2005. CBO estimates that implementing the bill
would cost $60 million over the 2005-2009 period, assuming
appropriation of $60 million in 2005. Estimated outlays are
based on historical spending patterns of similar scientific
programs. The estimated budgetary impact of S. 1164 is shown in
the following table. The costs of this legislation fall within
budget function 300 (natural resources and environment).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By fiscal year, in millions of dollars--
--------------------------------------------
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION
Authorization level................................................ 60 0 0 0 0
Estimated outlays.................................................. 24 27 9 0 0
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Intergovernmental and Private-Sector Impact: S. 1164
contains no intergovernmental or private-sector mandates as
defined in UMRA and would impose no costs on state, local, or
tribal governments.
Estimate Prepared by: Federal Costs: Susanne S. Mehlman.
Impact on State, Local, and Tribal Governments: Marjorie
Miller. Impact on the Private Sector: Jean Talarico.
Estimate Approved by: Peter H. Fontaine, Deputy Assistant
Director for Budget Analysis.
Regulatory Impact Statement
In accordance with paragraph 11(b) of rule XXVI of the
Standing Rules of the Senate, the Committee provides the
following evaluation of the regulatory impact of the
legislation, as reported:
NUMBER OF PERSONS COVERED
The Committee believes that the bill would not subject any
individuals or businesses affected by the legislation to any
additional regulation.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
This legislation would not have an adverse impact on the
Nation.
PRIVACY
This legislation would not have a negative impact on the
personal privacy of individuals.
PAPERWORK
This legislation would not require additional paperwork.
Section-by-Section Analysis
Section 1. Short title
Section 1 would entitle the bill as the ``Abrupt Climate
Change Act of 2003''.
Section 2. Abrupt climate change research program
Subsection (a) would require the Secretary of Commerce to
establish a program of scientific research on abrupt climate
change within the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research of
the NOAA.
Subsection (b) would identify the purposes of the research
program as:
Development of a global array of terrestrial
and oceanographic indicators of paleoclimate in order
to sufficiently identify and describe past instances of
abrupt climate change.
Improvement of understanding of thresholds
and nonlinearities in geophysical systems related to
the mechanisms of abrupt climate change.
Incorporation of such mechanisms into
advanced geophysical models of climate change.
Testing the output of such models against an
improved global array of records of past abrupt climate
changes.
Subsection (c) would define abrupt climate change as a change
in climate that occurs so rapidly or unexpectedly that human or
natural systems have difficulty adapting to the changed
climate.
Section 3. Authorization of appropriations
This section would authorize $60 million for fiscal year
2003, to remain available until expended, for the research
program established under section 2.
Changes in Existing Law
In compliance with paragraph 12 of rule XXVI of the Standing
Rules of the Senate, the Committee states that the bill as
reported would make no change to existing law.