[Congressional Record (Bound Edition), Volume 161 (2015), Part 11]
[Senate]
[Pages 14831-14832]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]




                     UNITED STATES-CHINA RELATIONS

  Mr. SULLIVAN. Mr. President, I rise this afternoon to say a few words 
about a critical challenge and opportunity facing the United States. 
For months many of us have been on the floor debating some of the 
important foreign policy and national security issues that our Nation 
faces--whether it is Islamic terrorism, ISIS, the President's flawed 
and dangerous Iran agreement or a resurgent Russia in Europe and the 
Arctic. The list of these issues is long, and it is growing. But one 
issue that has not really gotten much attention--I believe the 
attention that it deserves--and that I would like to speak about this 
afternoon is the long-term national security and foreign policy 
consequences of the rise of China.
  China's President Xi Jinping is in town right now. He is visiting 
America. He is going to meet with President Obama on a state visit, and 
some of us in Congress will have an opportunity to meet with him later 
today. It is an opportunity to start seriously thinking about the 
challenges and opportunities that a rising China presents to the world 
and to the United States.
  Perhaps we are not talking about this issue as much as we should on 
the floor because it doesn't seem to be an immediate issue. It is a bit 
of a longer term matter. But it is also something that in historical 
terms is happening so fast. I will give one statistic.
  In 1980 China's economy was smaller than that of the Netherlands. 
Last year, just the incremental growth of China's economy was as large 
as the Netherlands' economy. They have had incredible growth. But some 
of our country's most deep and strategic thinkers and historians agree 
that the rise of China is--over the next decade or two--the paramount 
issue for us to focus on in the United States.
  As far back as 2005, 10 years ago almost to the day, then-Deputy 
Secretary of State Bob Zellick, who went on to be the president of the 
World Bank and a former U.S. Trade Representative for the United 
States, a very strategic thinker, gave what was called the 
``responsible stakeholders'' speech, a very well-renowned speech that 
people are still reading on U.S.-China relations.
  In that speech 10 years ago, he said: ``How the United States deals 
with China's rising power is a central question in American foreign 
policy.''
  Just a few months ago in testimony before the Armed Services 
Committee, Harvard Professor Graham Allison gave testimony that in many 
ways is reflected in an article he just published in the Atlantic 
yesterday on the eve of the visit of the President of China. He states 
in that article and in his testimony from a couple of months ago:

       The preeminent geostrategic challenge of this era is not 
     violent Islamic extremists, or a resurgent Russia. It is the 
     impact that China's ascendance will have on the U.S.-led 
     national order.

  More specifically, Professor Allison writes that ``the defining 
question about global order for this generation is whether China and 
the United States can escape''--what he refers to as ``the Thucydides 
trap.''
  He is referencing the renowned ancient Greek historian.
  Professor Allison coined this term to describe the strategic dilemma 
and dangers that occur when a rising power rivals a ruling power, as 
when--an example he gives in ancient Greece--Athens challenged Sparta 
in ancient Greece which ultimately led to the Peloponnesian War.
  Professor Allison has caught the attention of many, including 
President Xi Jinping of China, who in a speech just a few days ago in 
Seattle actually referenced this term--the ``Thucydides trap''--when 
talking about U.S.-China relations. Now, both Professor Allison and 
President Xi, in his speech, make it clear that conflict between the 
United States and China is certainly not inevitable, regardless of what 
he says with regard to the Thucydides trap, and I certainly would agree 
with that. Professor Allison, however, does appear to draw some very 
sobering conclusions in his recent article that should make all of us 
take serious pause. He concludes in his article written yesterday: 
``War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the 
moment.'' These are his words, not mine. This is one of the most 
distinguished professors of international relations in the United 
States.
  I think these words underscore the need for those of us in the Senate 
to give due attention to the importance of the U.S.-China relationship 
and the attendant risks of Graham Allison's Thucydides trap.
  Fortunately, I believe we are well-positioned as an institution in 
the Senate to do this. In the Federalist Papers, Madison talks about 
one of the roles of the U.S. Senate with its Members having 6-year 
terms to be able to ensure lasting relations between the United States 
and other nations through the institution of the Senate. Perhaps more 
than any other part of the Federal Government, this institution has the 
opportunity to think strategically and act for the long-term interests 
of our country.
  Fortunately, we also have many experts, historians, professors, and 
practitioners, whether it is people such as Bob Zoellick or Graham 
Allison or Henry Kissinger or a new generation of scholars, such as 
Mike Green at CSIS, who have been thinking about these issues--the 
Asia-Pacific, the rise in China--for decades. Their articles, books, 
and speeches are critical to devising national strategies to advance 
America's interests in the region.
  This is a long-term endeavor for all of us. It is imperative that it 
remains on our radar screens through the course of State visits, 
through the course of elections, through the course of changing 
administrations. Contrary to what some say, we as a country do have the 
capacity to think and act in our long-term strategic interests as a 
government.
  Our successful bipartisan strategy dealing with the Soviet Union, 
started by Kennan's famous ``X'' telegram, which created the strategy 
of containment over the course of decades, over the course of several 
administrations and several different Congresses--it was a successful 
long-term strategy for the United States.
  From my perspective, as we look at this issue--the Asia-Pacific--its 
importance--the rise of China--I think a few key touchstones are 
important to remember. First, America is an Asia-Pacific power. My 
State of Alaska is an Asia-Pacific State. The United States has strong 
networks of alliances throughout the Asia-Pacific, and our country has 
built the post-World War II architecture that has enabled this dynamic 
region of the world to thrive in terms of peace and in terms of 
prosperity. In fact, when we look at the last 70 years of history in 
that region, we have been the linchpin of that peace and prosperity for 
all countries in the region, whether our strongest allies such as Japan 
and Korea and Australia or other countries--countries even like China--
and we have earned the trust of

[[Page 14832]]

our allies for our commitment. So we need to maintain that trust as we 
move forward and we need to listen to our allies in the region.
  Second, we need to understand the history of the region and our 
involvement there better as we think through what the strategy is 
moving forward. I have had the opportunity to go to the National 
Archives a number of times already since I joined the Senate, and there 
is a statue outside the National Archives and it has a command on it. 
It says simply: ``Study the past.'' Study the past. Again, I think that 
as we are looking at our strategy in that region, it is critical that 
we need to be doing that. Professor Allison's article, as well as 
books, is a good start, and I think all of us need to continue that 
focus.
  Third, no matter what strategy we end up using vis-a-vis China and 
the Asia-Pacific region, we have to be strong again at home. My biggest 
surprise as a new freshman Senator--my biggest surprise in this body is 
how little we, or certainly for that matter the Obama administration, 
talk about our economy, talk about the strength or the lack thereof of 
our economy. Perhaps because the performance of our economy has been so 
lackluster, we have even doubled down expectations.
  They have this term now in Washington called ``the new normal.'' 
American growth rates have typically been at 3, 3.5, 4 percent GDP 
growth throughout most of our history. Over the last 6 years, we can 
barely break 2 percent GDP growth; 1.5, 2 percent. Two quarters ago, we 
went back into recession. They are now calling this the new normal and 
we need to accept this. We rarely hear the President or even the 
Treasury Secretary come out to the American people and say: No, we have 
to grow traditional levels of American growth--3.5, 5 percent, 4 
percent GDP growth. The Presiding Officer knows this. He has focused on 
this issue. We are not doing that. We have to get back to strength at 
home because a continued weak U.S. economy--the new normal--growing at 
1.5 percent for the next 5, 10 years will create all kinds of 
additional challenges for us and in my view will make the Thucydides 
trap that Professor Allison talks about more likely for the United 
States and China.
  Yes, China has certain advantages, but in so many areas--in so many 
areas--the United States holds all the cards--in so many different 
areas. If we were in a global poker match and we were all at the 
table--all the big countries--we would look at our hand and we would 
see aces. Let me just name a few.
  The high-tech sector, still the envy of the world; not just Silicon 
Valley, all over America.
  Our agriculture sector. We feed the world.
  Universities. We have the best universities in the world, by far--by 
far. Certain States in America have better top universities than all of 
China.
  Finance and commercial aspects of our economy, the best 
entrepreneurs.
  Energy. We have a renaissance in energy where we are now the largest 
producer of oil and gas in the world and the largest producer of 
renewables. This is a huge advantage. It is creating a rebirth of 
manufacturing in America.
  Fisheries. We harvest some of the most amazing seafood, more than 
almost any other country in the world.
  Foreign relations. We look at our allies in Asia, they are coming to 
the United States in terms of wanting to deepen their relationship with 
us.
  And, of course, the U.S. military, the finest in the world right now. 
It is right now. I had the opportunity to go down to the World War II 
Memorial this morning and I saw a couple of Honor Flights coming in, 
seeing those veterans of ours who fought and defended this great Nation 
in World War II. We have had the best military for decades, and we are 
going to continue to do that.
  The key is we have to unleash our economic might once again, which 
has been so dormant during the Obama administration. We have to do 
this. If we do this, we can view the rise of China from a standpoint of 
strength, confidence, and opportunity, not trepidation.
  As Bob Zoellick mentioned 10 years ago in his ``Responsible 
Stakeholders'' speech: ``You hear voices that perceive China solely 
through the lens of fear, but America succeeds when we look to the 
future as an opportunity, not when we fear what the future might 
bring.''
  I have had the opportunity to view the U.S.-China relationship from a 
variety of lenses, including economic, diplomatic, and even to some 
degree military. I previously served as the commissioner of natural 
resources and energy in Alaska and was able to take a trip over there 
with some Alaskans to look at ways to deepen our economic, trade, and 
energy relationship between my State and China and have them visit 
Alaska and participate in those meetings. I served in terms of 
diplomacy as an assistant secretary of state and have had numerous 
opportunities to travel to China with some of our top U.S. Government 
leaders--at the time Bob Zoellick, Secretary of the Treasury Paulson, 
and Secretary of State Rice--to discuss ways in which to deepen 
economic relationships and work on the U.S.-China relationship.
  Even many years ago as a U.S. marine aboard an amphibious assault 
ship in the East and South China Sea during the third Taiwan Strait 
crisis, I was a very, very, very small player in an episode that once 
again demonstrated American resolve and commitment in the region.
  There is a long tradition from Alaska Senators in keeping a focus on 
the importance of the Asia-Pacific, from both the Alaska and the U.S. 
perspective.
  Former Senator Ted Stevens served in World War II as a Flying Tiger, 
flying the Hump in that part of the world, and his subsequent focus 
throughout his career was very much on the Asia-Pacific, as was Frank 
Murkowski's expertise and experience, particularly with regard to our 
relationship with Taiwan.
  The focus on the Asia-Pacific and the rise of China is certainly one 
that in many ways we can view as an opportunity, certainly in my State. 
Last year, China became the No. 1 export market for Alaskan goods: $1.4 
billion of goods exported from Alaska to China--an 18-percent increase. 
So I believe maintaining this focus--and we have this visit today with 
the President of China--is critically important not only to my State, 
not only to our country but also to our allies in the region.
  We should all try to put more focus and our best thinking on these 
critical foreign policy and national security issues which, although 
they are not always on the front page of the papers, I believe are some 
of the most important long-term strategic challenges and opportunities 
we face in this country.
  Mr. President, I yield the floor.
  I suggest the absence of a quorum.
  The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. Perdue). The clerk will call the roll.
  The legislative clerk proceeded to call the roll.
  Mr. GARDNER. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order 
for the quorum call be rescinded.
  The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
  

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