[Congressional Record (Bound Edition), Volume 152 (2006), Part 1]
[House]
[Pages 1095-1101]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]




                        THE PEAKING OF WORLD OIL

  The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mr. Campbell of California). Under the 
Speaker's announced policy of January 4, 2005, the gentleman from 
Maryland (Mr. Bartlett) is recognized for 60 minutes.
  Mr. BARTLETT of Maryland. Mr. Speaker, sometime ago, our Department 
of Energy commissioned a study with SAIC, Science Applications 
International Corporation, to do a study on the peaking of world oil 
production, impacts mitigation, and risk management. This very 
prestigious scientific organization took some time to complete this 
study; and when they completed it, they made a recommendation to the 
Congress and to the Department of Energy. Part of what they said in 
their recommendation is included here:
  ``The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world 
with an unprecedented risk management problem.''
  That is quite an adjective to use. No risk problem like this ever in 
the history of the world is what they are saying: ``. . . unprecedented 
risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices 
and price volatility will increase dramatically. And without timely 
mitigation, the economic, social, and political cost will be 
unprecedented.''
  Again, Mr. Speaker, they are pointing out, and they will use these 
words in a chart I will have a little later, that the world has never 
faced a problem like this.
  ``Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand side, 
but to have substantial impact they must be initiated more than a 
decade in advance of peaking.''
  When will peaking occur? Do we have a decade? And they are saying if 
we do not have a decade, we're going to have problems. Dealing with 
world oil production peaking will be extremely complex, involve 
literally trillions of dollars, and require many years of intense 
effort.
  Our next chart, which speaks to the same phenomenon, inspired 30 of 
our leaders, Boyden Gray, McFarland, James Woolsey, and about 27 
others, many of them four-star retired admirals and generals, to write 
a letter to the President. In that letter they said, Mr. President, the 
fact that we have only 2 percent of the world oil reserves, that we use 
25 percent of the world's oil, and we import almost two-thirds of what 
we use represents a totally unacceptable national security risk. Mr. 
President, we need to do something about that.
  Two other numbers here are of significance. We represent a bit less 
actually than 5 percent of the world's population, about one person out 
of 22. And in spite of the fact that we have only 2 percent of the 
world oil reserves, we produce about 8 percent of the world's oil. We 
need to keep this in mind for some of the later charts we are going to 
show, because what this means is that we are pumping our little 
reserves, only 2 percent, four times faster than the rest of the world.
  If we were pumping it as fast, with 2 percent of the reserves, we 
would be producing 2 percent of the production; but we are producing 8 
percent. So if the world is going to run into trouble with decreasing 
amounts of oil, Mr. Speaker, we are going to get there first because we 
are pumping our oil more rapidly.
  How did we get here? The next chart speaks to that, and we need to go 
back about six decades. There was a scientist by the name of M. King 
Hubbert, who worked for the Shell Oil Company; and he noted the 
exploitation and exhaustion of individual oil fields. We would find an 
oil field, we would start pumping, and the oil field would reach a 
maximum production. And then after the maximum production, at about 
half of its total ultimate production, it would start falling off. No 
matter how hard they pumped, it would produce less and less oil, until 
finally the field petered out.
  He rationalized that if he knew how many oil fields there were in the 
United States and roughly what their reserves were, and if he could 
predict how many new oil fields the United States would find, he could 
then add up all these little bell curves and he would get a big bell 
curve which would tell him when the United States was going to peak in 
oil production. So he did that in a paper in 1956, and he wrote in that 
paper that with this analysis he predicted that the United States would 
peak, and that was the lower 48 at that time, that the United States 
would peak in oil production and consumption of our own oil about 1970.
  Right on schedule, and some authorities will say 1970 and some will 
say 1971, but as this chart shows, the smooth green curve here was his 
prediction peaking about 1970, and the more ragged large green symbols 
represent the actual production, which pretty much followed his curve. 
And it did peak, as you can see, at about 1970; and it has been 
downhill since then.
  By 1980, we knew very well that we were downhill, and the early 
Reagan years provided a lot of incentives for drilling. There were a 
lot of oil wells drilled in our country. Notice the tiny increase from 
that. It simply brought us back to the curve that had been predicted by 
M. King Hubbert.
  Now, the red curve here is the curve for the Soviet Union. They had 
more oil than we, and they peaked higher than we. And when the Soviet 
Union fell apart, you see that they broke away from the predicted 
decline. They are now going to have a second little peak here, and then 
it will be falling off. They will never get back to their earlier peak 
of oil production.
  The next chart shows some detail about where our oil has come from 
through the years. And if you are looking only at the lower 48, you are 
going to be following this curve. And if you add to it the liquids that 
we are getting from gas, you will see that it still followed Hubbert's 
curve. It peaked in 1970 and then fall off.
  But we found a lot of oil in Alaska. As a matter of fact, I have been 
there, Mr. Speaker, at mile zero, at Dead Horse, Prudhoe Bay. And 
through that pipeline has come for the last several years a fourth of 
all of our domestic production. But notice that in spite of that 
enormous find of oil in Prudhoe Bay, there was just a little blip on 
the downside of Hubbert's peak.
  This yellow here on the chart is very interesting. That, you may 
remember, Mr. Speaker, was the fabled Gulf of Mexico oil discoveries. I 
remember how that was hyped. That was going to save us. There was 
plenty of oil there.
  That was all it did, Mr. Speaker. It hardly slowed us down. In terms 
of the total amount that we were producing, you can hardly see any 
effect of the Gulf of Mexico oil discovery.
  We were thinking about that discovery and those wells in the recent 
hurricane. There are 4,000 wells in the Gulf of Mexico. By the way, Mr. 
Speaker, that is about 10 times as many wells as there are in all of 
Saudi Arabia. We have about 530,000 oil wells in our country, about 80 
percent of all the oil wells drilled in all the world. Maybe that is 
why we are able to produce oil from our reserves relatively four times 
faster than the rest of the world.

[[Page 1096]]

  The next chart looks back through history, and it shows two things. 
It shows two curves, one superimposed on the other. One of the curves 
is the discovery curve, and this shows when we found the big oil fields 
starting way back in the 1930s, and then a lot of them in the 1940s, 
and some big oil fields found in the 1950s. But notice that this 
follows kind of a curve like so, and it peaks at about 1970, and it has 
been falling off ever since that. In spite of very large profits from 
the oil companies, they are not finding much more oil.
  I might note, Mr. Speaker, that the profits for the oil companies was 
inevitable. They do not set the price of oil. Chevron and BP and 
ExxonMobil, they do not set the price of oil. The price of oil is set 
by you and me and all the other roughly 7 billion people in the world 
who use oil.

                              {time}  2115

  We set the price by our demand relative to the supply. As supply has 
fallen off in the last several years, the price has gone up. Oil 
companies that were making money at $25 a barrel, how much more money 
do you think they will make when oil is $65 a barrel? We should not be 
carping about how much money they make; what we should be looking at is 
how responsibly they use the profits they make.
  Some of those profits need to be invested in finding new oil fields, 
but the experts do not think there is much more to find.
  Several Congresses ago I was chairman of the Energy Subcommittee on 
Science, and I wanted to determine the dimensions of the problem. We 
had the world's experts in to talk about how much oil is out there that 
we can realistically pump. There was general agreement, quite 
surprising agreement, that it is roughly 1,000 gigabarrels. Giga is 
used because in Europe a billion is not our billion so if you say 
billion, not everybody will understand it. So giga means a billion, and 
it means the same thing around the world.
  A thousand gigabarrels is about a trillion barrels of oil. That may 
sound like a lot, but it is about the amount of oil that we have pumped 
so far in all of history. If you divide the 84 billion barrels a day 
that we are using today into that trillion barrels of oil, it comes out 
to about 40 years. Most of the experts believe we have found about 95 
percent of all of the oil we will find. We now have very sophisticated 
seismic techniques with 3-D computer modeling. This is what they 
believe will be found, this gray-shaded area over here. It is not going 
to follow that smooth curve, but on average that is how much they think 
we will find.
  The solid black line here represents the amount of oil we have been 
using. Up until about 1980, we always found more oil than we were 
using. There was always a big reserve out there. Since 1980, we have 
found less and less oil, and we have been using more and more oil. We 
have been able to do that because we are now using up some of these 
reserves we found before.
  All of the oil that we can use has to be all the oil that is there. 
If you have not found it, you cannot pump it. So you make your own 
judgment how much oil you think we are going to find in the future, 
then you add that to the reserves back here. That is going to be the 
area under this curve from now on.
  By the way, this 40 years that I mentioned, that is not a plateau. 
You do not plateau out for 40 years and then fall off a cliff. It is 
going to follow that typical bell curve of every oil field. By the way, 
33 of the top 45 oil-producing countries have now peaked. It is only a 
few that have not peaked.
  What will this curve look like from here on? We can change the shape. 
If we use some of our good recovery enhancement techniques, we can pump 
oil a little faster, and we may pump a little more, so we may get a 
little more out of these fields than depicted here. This is not all of 
the oil in the fields because probably half of the oil there will not 
get pumped because it is so difficult to get, it is going to cost more 
energy to get the oil than you get out of the oil. So you get to the 
point of you stop getting the oil. As the old farmer said, at that 
point ``the juice ain't worth the squeezing,'' so we stop trying to get 
oil at that point.
  The next chart shows a simple schematic that depicts the problem and 
where we are. Everybody may not agree this is where we are. Most of the 
people that have thought about peak oil think we are here or will 
shortly be here. This is a 2 percent growth curve. With 2 percent 
growth, that doubles in 35 years. This point is twice that point, and 
so this is a 35-year period from here to here.
  Notice what this chart points out is that you start having a problem 
before peaking because the exponential use curve, the demand curve 
keeps going up like this, whereas when we reach peak oil, it will of 
necessity level off, and then no matter what we do, it will inexorably 
go downhill after that. It does for individual oil fields. It has for 
the United States.
  By the way, the same M. King Hubbard that predicted we would peak in 
about 1970, he was right on. He predicted that the world would peak 
about now. If he was right about the United States, maybe he is right 
about the world, and maybe we should have been paying some attention to 
that.
  I would submit that we have now, in common parlance, we have blown 25 
years when we knew very well M. King Hubbard was right about the United 
States. If he was right about the United States, would not it have been 
prudent to recognize that maybe he just might be right about the world? 
If he is right about the world, the world is about to peak in oil 
production now, then we should have been doing something during these 
last 25 years so this would be a smoother transition.
  The next chart shows us the alternatives. As the world peaks in oil 
production, we are going to have to, first of all, turn to some finite 
resources, and we are now doing that. I will chat for a moment about 
those. And those will not last forever. They are finite, as the word 
implies, except for nuclear, which is kind of different. The only 
nuclear that is finite is light water reactors that use fissionable 
uranium. If we go to breeder reactors, as the term implies, you make 
more fuel than you are using, and that could go on and on. You have to 
accept the problems you buy there with the enrichment and moving fuel 
around that could make bombs and so forth.
  Of course, the one thing that gets us home free is nuclear fusion. If 
we could harness the kind of energy that the sun sends down to us every 
day, we are home free. But, Mr. Speaker, the odds of our doing that are 
a bit like you or me solving our personal economic problems by winning 
the lottery. That would be nice, and by the way, I do not play the 
lottery, but I do not think that rational people count on solving their 
economic problems by winning the lottery, and neither do I think that 
we should count on solving our energy problems of the future by nuclear 
fusion. That does not mean I do not support it. I vote every year for 
all of the money, $250 million or so, that we put into that, because we 
have to try. If we do not successfully harness nuclear fusion, we have 
a really challenging road ahead.
  Let us look at these finite resources and what kind of potential we 
can expect from them. There is a lot of suggestion today about the tar 
sands up in Alberta, Canada. There are enormous reserves there. The 
reserves there are at least as large of all of the oil reserves in all 
of the world. Then what we are worrying about? Well, because it is 
there does not necessarily mean that we can harness it in enough 
quantities or soon enough to really make a big contribution.
  As an example, Mr. Speaker, every day the Moon goes around the Earth 
roughly in a day, and it lifts the oceans about 2 feet. That is an 
incredible amount of energy. I carry two gallon buckets of water and 
lift them up, that is a lot of energy. If we could harness the energy 
of the tides, we would be home free. There is an old adage that says 
energy to be effective must be concentrated, and because those tides 
are spread out over all of the oceans of all of the world, it is 
difficult to harness them.

[[Page 1097]]

  The tar sands are a little like that. There is an incredible amount 
of energy there, and the Canadians are working very hard at harnessing 
that. Let me see if I can remember the numbers. I think they have a 
shovel in Alberta, Canada, that lifts 100 tons at a time and dumps it 
into a truck that carries 400 tons, and I think those are the right 
numbers. It carries them to a place where they are cooked, because the 
oil in those tar sands is a bit better, but kind of like the oil in 
your asphalt road. If you put a blow torch on an asphalt road and mix 
it with some lighter fuels, it will flow. That is kind of like what we 
are doing with the tar sands. They are working very hard, and they are 
producing a million barrels a day. We will talk in just a moment about 
energy profit ratio. They are making a lot of dollars doing that 
because it costs them less than $30 a barrel to make it. The oil is now 
bringing $60-some a barrel, so the dollar-profit ratio is up there. 
They are using, I have heard, maybe more energy from natural gas to 
produce the oil than they are getting out of the oil. That makes good 
sense for them because they have natural gas there, and it is hard to 
ship, and it is relatively cheap, and the oil is easy to ship and in 
high demand at $60-some a barrel.
  Mr. Speaker, by the end of the day, we really need to be thinking 
about energy profit ratio because that is what will be telling. They 
are now producing a million barrels a day, and if they work real hard, 
they will be producing 2 million barrels a day in 5 years. Big deal.
  The world today is using 84 million barrels a day, and if they work 
really hard, 10 years from now they will be producing 3 times as much 
as today, 3 million barrels a day, but the world would like to be using 
another 40 million barrels a day. I do not think it will be there, but 
if you project our current demand for those 10 years, we would like to 
be using another 40 million barrels of oil, and they will be producing 
another 2 million barrels of oil, \1/20\ of the additional oil the 
world would like to use. Although there is a lot of energy there, and I 
am sure that we will find techniques to get it out that have some 
energy profit ratio so there will be energy there for a long time, but 
it is not going to be available anywhere near the quantities needed to 
meet the needs of contending with the crisis that will occur with peak 
oil.
  Now, the oil shales in our country are very much the same thing. 
Recently you may have read of an experiment out in Colorado. I think it 
was Shell Oil Company that devised a new technique for getting the oil 
out of the oil shales, which is like the oil in the tar sands. It is 
very thick and will not flow.
  What they did to avoid polluting the groundwater was drill a series 
of holes in a circle, and then they froze the ground because the oil 
will not move through frozen ground. Inside that frozen vessel, if you 
will, they cooked and cooked it for a year. They put steam down and 
cooked it for a year. After that year, they started sucking on the oil, 
and for another year they cooked and they sucked, and they got a pretty 
meaningful amount of oil out of that.
  There is an awful lot of oil in the oil shales, maybe about as much 
as in the tar sands, but the scale, scaling up for this is incredibly 
difficult. I am not sure what the energy profit ratio is, because if 
you have to freeze the perimeter of that big vessel, if that is what 
you want to call it, and then you have to cook it for a couple of 
years, obviously you are putting a lot of energy in. They believe they 
got more energy out than they put in. But still, the energy profit 
ratio is not going to be enormous. Even if you can make that 
attractive, you still have the problem of scale. With the world using 
84 billion barrels of oil a day, you have to have a lot of a million 
here, a million there before it adds up to what we are using.
  Coal, you may hear people do not worry about energy, we have 500 
years of coal. That is not true. At current use rates, we have about 
250 years of coal. That is a long time, so why are we worrying? If we 
have 250 years of coal at current use rates, and obviously you can do 
with coal what we do with oil. Hitler did it. When we denied him access 
to oil, he made oil out of coal. When I was a little boy, the lamps 
that we call kerosene lamps today, we called them coal oil lamps 
because they were filled with oil, made from oil. So if you must use 
coal, if you have greater demand than we use today, that 250 years 
quickly shrinks. I have a chart a little later that shows that. But it 
quickly shrinks to about 85 years, and if you have to use some of the 
energy to convert the coal since you cannot have a trunkload of coal in 
your car, the energy to do that now shrinks that supply. There is only 
a 2 percent growth rate, and I think we will have to use it at much 
more than 2 percent growth rate, and it shrinks it to 50 years. So we 
have to husband that resource very wisely.
  We have already chatted briefly about nuclear fission and nuclear 
fusion. Today we produce 20 percent of our electricity from nuclear. 
France produces 75 or 80. If you have some concerns about nuclear 
power, when you drive tonight note that every fifth business and every 
fifth house would be dark if were not for nuclear energy.

                              {time}  2130

  One-fifth, 20 percent, of all the electricity in our country comes 
from nuclear. Well, once these are gone, and they will be gone, except 
nuclear breeder reactors, as many of those as we want to have and 
maybe, maybe if we are lucky nuclear fusion. But we will transition, 
Mr. Speaker, whether we like it or not, as the world runs out of oil, 
we will transition to the renewables. What are they? They are solar and 
wind and geothermal. Geothermal is when we tap into the molten core of 
the Earth when we are close enough to that that you can get some heat 
from that. If you go to Iceland, there is not a chimney there because 
all of their energy comes from geothermal.
  We are trying very hard, as I mentioned previously, to tap into ocean 
energy. It is not just the tides. It is the waves. It is the thermal 
gradients in the ocean, the cold water at the depths, the warmer water 
on top, kind of a thermal couple effect that you can get there.
  Then there is lots and lots of talk about getting energy from 
agriculture. Soy diesel, bio diesel, ethanol, methanol, biomass. The 
President mentioned it in his State of the Union. He said we are hooked 
on oil and have got to wean ourselves from that, and technology will do 
it. And he talked about some exciting technology, about taking some 
biomass like soybean stubble and corn stalks and switch grass. What is 
switch grass? Switch grass is prairie grass, and a lot of it grows. Of 
the prairie that we did not plow up and let that return to switch 
grass, it is a big crop every year. And they are talking about 
harvesting that and using something like culling cellulosic ethanol. We 
bioengineered a little organism that can split cellulose into its 
requisite glucose molecules. It is made of sugar. Sure does not taste 
like sugar. See, because the human's molecules are so closely tied 
together that the enzymes in our body cannot split them. But these 
little bioengineered organisms can do that, so we break cellulose down 
to glucose, and then we ferment the glucose, and we get ethanol from 
it. And there is a lot of talk about that.
  And biomass. Waste energy. Burning waste. There is a plant not far 
from here in Montgomery County, I would be proud to have it by my 
church. It looks like an office building. You do not even know it is an 
incinerator burning trash and producing electricity. They bring the 
trash in by truck or train in containers. You do not even see it until 
it is inside the building and then they dump it. Really interesting to 
watch it because that trash comes in with all sorts of things in it. 
They have a crane there that picks it up and drops it to see if there 
is something evil in it like a tank of propane. You would not want to 
put that in the fire. It might explode. And if they drop it and there 
is nothing evil-looking in it, they pick it up again and drop it over 
into the fire. It is really worth a trip there. And we now get a 
meaningful amount of energy, as a later chart will show from waste to 
energy.

[[Page 1098]]

  Then hydrogen. Many people think that we do not have to worry about 
energy because we have got hydrogen. Hydrogen, Mr. Speaker, is not an 
energy source. Hydrogen is simply a way of transferring energy from one 
point to another. It will always cost more energy to make hydrogen than 
you will get out of the hydrogen. I can say that with some confidence 
because just as sure as there will never be a perpetual motion machine, 
we will never suspend the second law of thermodynamics. And that says 
that when you transfer energy from one form to another, you will always 
loose some energy in that transfer. Why are we so enthusiastic about 
hydrogen if that is true? It is because hydrogen has some incredible 
capabilities. When you burn it, you get water. That is really not very 
polluting, is it? And further more, hydrogen is a great thing to put in 
a fuel cell. And a fuel cell gets twice the efficiency of a 
reciprocating engine. So I am not depreciating the value of looking at 
hydrogen. I am simply pointing out that hydrogen is little more than a 
battery which takes energy from one place to another place. As a matter 
of fact, in a recent hearing, we had three experts on hydrogen, and 
there are three ways that you could transport hydrogen. One is as a 
liquid. It must be really, really cold, several hundred degrees below 
zero to keep it as a liquid, which means you have to have a lot of 
insulation, and even then it is going to boil off, so you have got to 
use it faster than that boils off.
  The other way to carry it is as a gas. Well, hydrogen is the lightest 
element we have. Those gas molecules are really trying to get apart 
from each other, so it takes a really high pressure vessel to contain 
hydrogen.
  The third way to transport hydrogen is in solid state. You adhere the 
hydrogen either by some adhesion or by some chemical process. You carry 
it in a solid state. That is very much like the way we carry electrons 
in what we call a battery. Hydrogen is a proton plus an electron; and 
so, and I asked the question, is a hydrogen battery inherently going to 
be more efficient than an electron battery? Well, we really need to 
look at hydrogen, but it is not a salvation to our problems.
  The next chart looks at the characteristics that we are going to want 
to find in whatever alternative we turn to, and here we have on the 
ordinate the energy profit ratio. I have talked about energy profit 
ratio. That is how much energy you put in compared to how much energy 
you get out. And our big oil fields here, you see, they are up at 60 to 
one. As a matter of fact, the charts were even higher. Some of those 
were more than 100 to one. By the way, there were none of those in our 
country. They exist only in the Middle East and most in the big Darwar 
oil field. The granddaddy of all oil fields is in Saudi Arabia.
  And the energy profit ratio is 60. You put in one unit of energy, one 
Btu, and you get out 60 Btus. The abscissa here is economic 
effectiveness in transport, that is, how handy is it to use. And we are 
talking primarily about transportation and liquid fuels, how handy is 
it to use. Well, oil of course is the handiest thing to use. It is way 
over here on the right. And it had an enormous energy profit ratio if 
it came from the giant oil fields. In 1970, when we peaked, our energy 
profit ratio was down here. Now it is harder and harder to get our oil, 
and so by 1985 the energy profit ratio had slid down to here. Notice 
where the energy profit ratio is for tar sands and ethanol and that 
sort of source: way down here, just about zero. In fact, some people 
think that the energy profit ratio for ethanol, the way that it is 
frequently made, is below zero here, that more energy goes into making 
ethanol from the fossil fuels that made the tractor and plows field and 
makes the fertilizer and so forth than you get out of the ethanol.
  Well, here we have some of the other things: hydro, coal fired, 
nuclear, photovoltaics. They now are getting much better. They are 
moving up in energy profit ratio. Wind machines should be on here too, 
and they would be about in this same category. So whatever alternative 
energy source we use, to see how useful it is going to be, we need to 
put it on this chart: does it have a high energy profit ratio, and is 
it really convenient to use for transportation.
  The next chart is one which really has the long look. I like this 
chart because it is kind of humbling. It kind of puts us and oil and 
our whole history into perspective. Here we have only about 400 years, 
a little less than 400 years out of 5,000 years of recorded history. 
But for the first 4,600 years not a whole lot happened. And so if you 
extended this back 4,600 years, it would look very much the same. Very 
little energy produced. Here you see it. Wood. And then we learned how 
to use it more effectively. The Industrial Revolution started here in 
the early 1800s. We denuded the hills of New England to send charcoal 
to England to make steel. There is a little historic place called 
Catoctin Furnace up in Frederick County, and we denuded our hills up 
there to make charcoal for Catoctin Furnace. And then we found coal.
  Oh, the ordinate here is quadrillion Btus, how much energy you are 
producing. And then we found coal. And boy, look what happened. Look 
what happened. We really took off. The coal was very limited in what it 
could do compared with gas and oil, and the red curve here is gas and 
oil. And look what happened. It just took off and was reaching for the 
sky. Notice here the worldwide recession after the Arab-induced oil 
price spike hikes, worldwide recession, and we did use less oil. So we 
can economize. We can be more efficient. We can use less.
  I might point out, Mr. Speaker, that the world's population has 
pretty much followed this. Just this afternoon I was looking at a chart 
of world population. Half a billion, a billion people for way back as 
far as we can look in history. And then we start the Industrial 
Revolution, and the world's population took off and it mirrors this. 
From a half a million, half a billion to a billion people up to now 
nearly seven billion people.
  If, in fact we are at peak oil, and almost nobody denies, the most 
optimistic estimate I have ever seen is that we will reach peak oil at 
about 2035 or 2036. You know, that is not forever in the future. Most 
authorities believe that we are either here or it is very imminent. But 
if we have reached peak oil, we are about halfway through the age of 
oil. That is incredible. Out of 5,000 years of recorded history, 150 
years now we are into the age of oil. In another 150 years we will be 
through the age of oil. Our great grandchildren will live then. What 
will their world be like? We face a lot of really serious challenges.
  Mr. Speaker, when I think back, and someone asked me the other day 
how long I have been thinking about this subject, and maybe it is 
because I am a scientist. I knew that the fossil fuels could not be 
forever and so maybe 30, 40 years ago, when I was teaching school and 
doing research, I started asking myself that question, what does that 
mean, not forever? Do we have another 10 years, a hundred years, a 
thousand years? Obviously, it is not going to last forever. But what 
does that mean? And so I have been following this for 30, 40 years now.
  The next chart looks at something that I have spoken briefly about 
and that is coal. And some will tell you, and I have heard a lot of 
people who ought to know better say, do not worry, we have got 250 
years of coal. That is true, at current use rates. But if you start 
increasing coal only 2 percent a year, you know, Albert Einstein was 
asked after the discovery of nuclear energy, what is next? What is the 
most powerful force in the universe, Dr. Einstein? You know what his 
response was? The power of compound interest. That is exponential 
growth. Compound interest.
  And if you grow only 2 percent a year, that 250 years now immediately 
shrinks to about, what, 85 years here? And obviously you cannot fill 
your trunk up with coal. You are going to have to convert it to a gas 
or a liquid. And so when you have used some energy to convert it to a 
gas or a liquid, after conversion you have got about 50 years left. 
That is a long time. And it is a meaningful resource. But it is not 
forever. And by the way, there are one of two penalties you are going 
to pay

[[Page 1099]]

for burning coal. Either you are going to pay a big environmental 
penalty if you do not clean it up. And every year we vote some billions 
of dollars for clean coal technology. And still we have too much 
CO2, too much pollution from coal.
  And by the way, Mr. Speaker, the use of coal is not without its 
price. We have had, what, 16 miners killed in West Virginia in the last 
couple of weeks in producing coal.
  When was the last time you heard that a worker in a nuclear power 
plant was killed or injured? The answer is, never in this country. It 
just has not happened. I lived through the Three Mile Island disaster. 
I was not very far from it in Frederick, Maryland. There was a lot of 
hoopla about that. Very little actual effects of that. I have some 
friends who have been avidly antinuclear. When they are considering the 
alternative of shivering in the dark as we run down the other side of 
Hubbert's peak, they are wisely taking a new look at nuclear.
  Our next chart is a very interesting one. We have talked about the 
potential from agriculture. Let me make two generalizations as a 
caution. We are barely able to feed the world. Tonight, 20 percent of 
the world or so will go to bed hungry. How much food can we convert to 
energy and still feed the world, particularly if we permit the world's 
population to increase as it is today?
  The other caution is, how much biomass can we take from our land and 
still have topsoil? With all of our good techniques today, no till 
farming and so forth, every bushel of corn we grow in Iowa is 
accompanied by three bushels of topsoil that go down the Mississippi 
River.
  Now, topsoil is topsoil, rather than subsoil simply because it has 
organic matter in it. And that organic matter, the humus comes from 
decaying organic material. And if you are taking all that organic 
material off to burn or to ferment or whatever you are going to do with 
it, I am not certain how long we can maintain the quality of our 
topsoil so that we can continue to produce the food and fiber that we 
need and that the world needs.
  On the top here are shown two depictions. One is the amount of energy 
you get out of petroleum. Obviously, you do not get all the energy in 
your car. It takes energy to drill the wells, to pump it out, to 
transport it, to refine it, to haul it to the gas station and so forth.

                              {time}  2145

  So when we get out 1 million Btus, there are probably, they estimate, 
it took 1.23 million Btus input. So you do not get it all in your car. 
You would not expect to.
  Now, what about the energy profit ratio here of ethanol? And here we 
are getting a lot of energy from the sun. What does that mean in terms 
of the final product? And I am told by some this is a pretty optimistic 
assessment here. But even if we reach this, you have put in .74 million 
Btus. Almost three-fourths of the energy you get out of ethanol is 
represented by the energy that went into producing ethanol. There is an 
energy profit ratio, although some have disputed that. There is a 
doctor in the East here and one in the West, and they have done what 
they say is a very good analysis of all the energy, and it is hard to 
keep track of that, Mr. Speaker. It is not just the diesel fuel they 
use in the tractors. How much energy does it take to make the tractor? 
Every automobile tire has the equivalent of 6 gallons of oil in it. As 
you burn the tire, you get some sense that that is probably pretty 
close to the truth.
  These two scientists believe that today in the way that some ethanol 
is made, it takes more energy from fossil fuels to make the ethanol 
that we get out of the ethanol. Even if that is true, there is a good 
byproduct remaining, all the fat and all the protein. Tofu is a 
protein, by the way. That is the protein from soybeans. We get a 
similar protein from corn. So we can use that as animal food or human 
food.
  The bottom chart here shows some of the challenge of getting energy 
from corn. This is a pie chart which shows the total amount of energy 
that goes into producing a bushel of corn. And notice, Mr. Speaker, 
that almost half of that total energy comes from nitrogen. That is 
because nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas. Before we learned 
how to do that, the only source of nitrogen fertilizer was barnyard 
manure and what we call guano. Guano is the droppings of bats and birds 
for very long periods of time, hundreds of years, maybe thousands of 
years, and it accumulated on the tropical islands, and in the case of 
bats, we mined that to get guano. That is gone. If we wait another 10-, 
20-, 30,000 years, there will be some more. But it takes a very long 
time to accumulate that.
  This is all the other energy that goes into producing a bushel of 
corn. Potash was mined using fossil fuels. Phosphate was mined using 
fossil fuels. The lime was quarried using fossil fuels. Here is the 
diesel fuel that ran the tractor and the combine, the gasoline that is 
used in some of the farm equipment, liquid gas, electricity, all of 
which is produced by fossil fuels, most of it by fossil fuels, some by 
nuclear, 20 percent by nuclear. The custom work, the diesel that went 
into doing the work, the energy, the fossil energy it took to build the 
tractor and so forth. And many of the chemicals we use in agriculture 
are made from oil. The water is pumped using energy. The hauling, the 
seed, fossil fuel energy goes into producing all of this.
  Mr. Speaker, how will we feed the world once we run down the other 
side of Hubbert's peak?
  The next chart, this is a really interesting one. I use an analogy 
here that helps me to understand this. I imagine a young couple that 
has just gotten married, and their grandparents died and left them a 
pretty big inheritance. So they have now established a life-style where 
85 percent of all the money they spend comes from their grandparents' 
inheritance and only 15 percent from their income. And they look at the 
amount they are spending and at the size of the grandparents' 
inheritance and say, gee, this is not going to last until we retire. So 
obviously they have got to do one or both of two things: Either they 
have got to spend less money, or they have got to earn more money.
  I use that 85-15. Others may use 86-14. The 85 or the 86 is the 
percentage of energy in our economy that we get from the fossil fuels, 
natural gas and petroleum and coal. Only 15 percent in this depiction 
do we get from nonfossil fuel sources. A bit more than half of that, 
nuclear energy, 8 percent, that is, 8 of 15, a bit more than half, 
comes from nuclear. That is 20 percent of electricity, but 8 percent of 
our total energy use heating buildings and manufacturing and so forth. 
Seven percent of it comes from renewables. Remember that previous 
chart? Ultimately we will transition to these renewables, with the 
exception of what we will get from nuclear. When we are through the age 
of oil, it will all be renewables.
  What are they? Solar. This is a 2000 chart. We are better today. In 
2000, solar represented 1 percent of 7 percent. That is .07 percent. It 
has been growing at 30 percent a year. That doubles in about 3 years. 
So now, big deal, it is .28 percent of our total energy.
  Wood, 38 percent. Not the West Virginia hillbilly, but this is the 
timber industry and the paper industry wisely using a waste product, 
what would otherwise be a waste product.
  I mentioned waste before. That is 8 percent of our total renewable 
energy. We ought to be producing a lot more of that. Landfills are 
pretty silly when you think that you could be producing electricity 
with that rather than worrying about the methane that is produced 
there. They do harvest some of that, by the way, and use it.
  Wind, another 1 percent. By the way, wind and solar are essentially 
the same energy source. The wind blows because of the differential 
heating of the sun; so they both go back to the sun. We can now produce 
electricity from wind at 2\1/2\ cents a kilowatt hour. That is really 
competitive. Why are we not producing more of it? Wind farms are 
growing. You may see them. Some people do not like the look of those. I 
think that the big wind machines are pretty handsome. That is about 
where

[[Page 1100]]

solar is today, about .28 percent of our total energy.
  How long will it take us to get to any meaningful percentage there? 
Because that is increasingly what we are going to have to rely on in 
the future.
  Conventional hydro, almost half of all of our renewables comes from 
an energy source that is not going to grow in our country. We have 
dammed every river that should be dammed and probably a few that should 
not; so that is not likely to grow.
  Now we are down here to agriculture, alcohol fuels and so forth. 
Again, almost in the noise level. And geothermal, where we are close 
enough to the molten core of the Earth, we really should tap into that. 
That is free. It is forever if you use it properly.
  The next chart shows us something very interesting. Mr. Speaker, I 
would like to get some input from statisticians on this because 
everybody knows the jargon of something which is statistically 
significant. There is a 95 percent probability, there is a 5 percent 
probability, and so forth. And here they have done something which I 
find very strange. If you are looking at the path that a hurricane is 
going to take, you notice it starts out very narrow. It could get 
pretty good for the next few hours, but when it gets out to hours and 
days, it gets broader and broader. Now, the hurricane maybe will go 
down the middle, but there is just as big a chance it will go to the 
left as there is that it will go to the right. And what these folk are 
doing and what they are using here is statistical jargon. They are 
saying a high 5 percent probability, low 95 percent, and the mean is 
what is in the middle. Now, that could just as well be a whole lot less 
as that much more. So the real peak is probably going to occur about 
right here.
  This is where we are now. This is the 2000 chart. We are about right 
here. They are using this mean here. No one that I know of believes 
that the ultimate recovery, 1 billion barrels of oil, is 3 trillion. 
But even if you use the 3 trillion, that takes you only to this point. 
It pushes peak oil out only to 2016.
  The next one is a really interesting one. If you assume that you are 
going to get it faster and move the peak out to 2037, look what happens 
after that. You fall off a cliff.
  So we need to be careful about this enhanced oil recovery, because if 
there is only so much to pump, and you pump it sooner rather than 
later, later you are going to have less to pump.
  Back to Robert Hirsch and the study done by SAIC. They say on Page 
64, ``World oil peaking is going to happen.'' And down here he says 
that oil peaking presents a unique challenge. The world has never faced 
a problem like this without massive mitigation, more than a decade 
before the fact. And remember, Mr. Speaker, very few authorities 
believe that peak oil is more than a decade from now. So we are pretty 
much here.
  The next chart points out something very interesting, and that is 
that this really is a worldwide problem. We are all in the same boat on 
this little planet Earth traveling through space. There is only so much 
oil. There are about 7 billion people, and clearly we would do better 
to engage the nations of the world in a competition to achieve 
sustainability instead of a consumption contest, which is now what we 
are doing: Who can use the most oil to grow their economy the fastest?
  The next chart shows ideally what we need to be about.
  By the way, Mr. Speaker, I think that if we do not have a national 
and indeed international program which kind of has the breadth of 
putting a man on the Moon and the intensity of the Manhattan Project, I 
think we are in for a pretty rough landing.
  First of all, there is voluntarily conservation, and we can do that. 
We can conserve. California did. They had no rolling blackouts because 
they voluntarily reduced their electricity use by 11 percent in a 
single year. That is big. We start out with voluntary conservation, 
ride with two in the car, turn our thermostat down, put a sweater on. 
To organize voluntary conservation, working together to provide for the 
van pools and so forth, then the government can provide some monetary 
incentives, giving you the incentive to do the right thing. And then 
efficiency, of course. These were two words that were absent from the 
President's very good message on energy, conservation and efficiency.
  I am a conservative. My wife says she thinks that there ought to be 
some relationship between conservation and conservatives. Does that 
make sense, Mr. Speaker?
  The next chart we are going back again to the Hirsch report. That was 
such a great study. They said on page 24, ``We cannot conceive of any 
affordable government-sponsored crash program to accelerate normal 
replacement schedules so as to incorporate higher energy efficiency 
technologies into the private-owned transportation sector. Significant 
improvements in energy efficiency will thus be inherently time-
consuming of the order of a decade or so.''
  For instance, if everyone was to drive a hybrid car, which gets two 
or three times the mileage of an ordinary car, it takes one or two 
decades to turn over the motor fleet; 28 years, I think, for the big 
trucks; much less than that for the vanity of cars and so forth.
  The next chart, this is something that we are doing out in Frederick. 
We wanted to demonstrate that it was possible to be totally self-
sufficient, so we have proposed, and we have funding to do it thanks to 
the generosity of the taxpayers, that we are going to build a welcome 
center coming down into Frederick that is totally energy self-
sufficient. We will get all of our water from the rain. We will handle 
all of our waste without putting anything into the ground, with 
composting toilets and constructed wetlands and so forth. We will 
produce all of our energy with wind machines and solar panels and so 
forth. This should in the next couple of years be existing. If you go 
up 270 into Frederick and start down the hill where you look over the 
Frederick Valley and see the city there, on your right will be the 
Goodloe Byron Overlook. If you pull in there, you will be at this 
welcome center, which will have a lot of what we call benign 
technologies.
  In the few minutes remaining, I would like to use the Apollo 13 as an 
example of the challenge that we have. You may remember the Apollo 13. 
They had an explosion in one of their oxygen tanks. They had two oxygen 
tanks. And that explosion caused the other oxygen tank to leak. So not 
only were they going to be short of oxygen for themselves if they were 
not careful, they were going to be short of energy because they were 
using that oxygen to combine with hydrogen in a fuel cell to produce 
energy.

                              {time}  2200

  What they had available to them was the module, the lunar lander. 
They turned around, as you may know. They had to evaluate what they had 
to work with, and that is all they had to work with, what was in that 
little spacecraft out there. What could they do with that? They had a 
big challenge of CO2 buildup and what they were going to do 
to manage that so that they could get back. They had a very narrow 
window.
  There are a lot of analogies between the Apollo 13 and where we are 
today. They had a challenge not of their choosing. We did not choose to 
reach peak oil at this time, but they were faced with the inevitable 
decision of either making the right choices or not making it through, 
and we are faced with very much that same kind of a dilemma. We have 
some choices to make now, and the next chart points to the kinds of 
choices that we have and what I think we need to be doing.
  I want to refer you to an earlier chart which, by the way, we had 
that bell curve and we had the consumption going up like so, and there 
is a gap there.
  A lot of people are trying to fill the gap. Here is that chart. Put 
that in front of this one. We will talk about that in just a moment. A 
lot of people are talking about filling the gap so that we continue on 
this course and use ever more and more.
  I would suggest, Mr. Speaker, it is not what our challenge should be. 
As a matter of fact, to get alternative energy sources, we are going to 
have to

[[Page 1101]]

invest three things. Money, we will not worry about that. We will 
borrow that from our kids and our grandkids, I am sorry to say; but we 
cannot borrow time from them, and you cannot borrow energy from them. 
We have run out of time. We are using all the oil that is available. If 
there was more oil than we would like to use, it would not be a sixty-
couple dollars a barrel, would it? So in order to have any energy to 
invest in the alternative, we have to reduce our demand for oil so we 
have something to invest.
  Trying to fill the gap just puts off the inevitable. If, in fact, we 
are able to do that momentarily, since there is not going to be much 
more oil found out there, the experts believe all you are doing now is 
setting yourself up for a bigger fall later. The old adage, in a hole, 
stop digging, the corollary to that is you are climbing a hill and you 
are going to fall off the other side, the higher you climb, the further 
you fall. This is pretty much where we are with oil. Let us go back now 
about the choices before us now.
  Like Apollo 13, we have got to develop those contingency plans. What 
will we do? We need to prepare proactively. We have almost run out of 
time to do that. We must reduce energy consumption to make some energy 
available. That will buy some time. By the way, the cheapest oil is the 
oil you do not use. We have bought some time so we can make investments 
now in more efficiency, first of all, and then in these alternatives 
which we will increasingly turn to.
  The ultimate goal is to achieve sustainable growth. By the way, Mr. 
Speaker, there is no such thing as sustainable growth, whether short 
term you may make it appear to be so; but ultimately there is no such 
thing as continued forever sustainable growth. We are going to have to 
learn to be happy with being satisfied with what we have got.
  I think, Mr. Speaker, we have some really, really great times ahead 
of us. I can imagine nothing more than all Americans feeling really 
good about contributing to a solution to this problem.
  What we really need is leadership that the American people understand 
that they really can contribute. We have enormous creativity and 
entrepreneurship. We need to harness that. The next big burst in 
economic efficiency and growth can be in developing these alternatives 
and more efficient ways of doing things.
  The ultimate goal, and we will get to that goal, we will transition. 
When the age of oil is finished and there is no more oil that can be 
gotten without paying more for the oil than you get out of it, we will 
have been transitioned to the renewables. What will life be like then? 
What will life be like in that transition?
  This is really a good-news story. The sooner we start to address this 
problem, the less traumatic will be the transition. I like to think, 
Mr. Speaker, that if we harness the creativity and the energy of the 
American people, there is nothing that will make sleep so refreshing 
other than just knowing you really contributed something that day.
  Mr. Speaker, I think that we have a bright future ahead of us. Unless 
we recognize, we probably are approaching peak oil. I would encourage, 
Mr. Speaker, that you go do a Google search for peak oil, pull up the 
articles on peak oil or do Hubbert's peak, you will find essentially 
the same articles there. There is a lot of information out there.
  The average person is so consumed with the necessities of life, the 
tyranny of the urgent that pushes the important off the table: you 
really need to change the diapers; you really do need to be 
responsible; you also need to be thinking about tomorrow. We think 
about our next election. The board of directors thinks about the next 
quarterly report. Who is looking 5 years from now, 10 years from now?
  Mr. Speaker, I think we have a great future ahead of us. The American 
people will respond if properly challenged.

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